Exchange Rate Fluctuations, 1.371 Million New Nonfarm Payroll Jobs in
August and 1.027 Million New Private Payroll Jobs, Thirty-Five Million
Unemployed or Underemployed in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession
with Economic Growth Underperforming Below Trend Worldwide, Unemployment Rate
8.4 Percent in Aug In the Global Recession, with Output in the US Reaching a High
in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the Lockdown
of Economic Activity in the COVID-19 Event, Job Creation, Cyclically Stagnating
Real Wages, Increase of Real Personal Consumption Expenditures of 1.6 Percent
in Jul, Cyclically Stagnating Real Disposable Income Per Capita, Financial
Repression, World Cyclical Slow Growth, and Government Intervention in
Globalization: Part III
Carlos M. Pelaez
© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009,
2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020.
I Thirty-Five Million Unemployed or
Underemployed in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic
Growth Underperforming
Below Trend Worldwide
IA2 Number of People in Job Stress
IA3 Long-term and
Cyclical Comparison of Employment
IA4 Job Creation
II Stagnating Real Disposable Income and Consumption Expenditures
IIB1 Stagnating Real
Disposable Income and Consumption Expenditures
IB2 Financial Repression
III World Financial Turbulence
IV Global Inflation
V World Economic
Slowdown
VA United States
VB Japan
VC China
VD Euro Area
VE Germany
VF France
VG Italy
VH United Kingdom
VI Valuation of Risk
Financial Assets
VII Economic
Indicators
VIII Interest Rates
IX Conclusion
References
Appendixes
Appendix I The Great Inflation
IIIB Appendix on Safe
Haven Currencies
IIIC Appendix on
Fiscal Compact
IIID Appendix on
European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort
IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the
Debt Crisis
IB Stagnating Real Wages. The wage bill is
the product of average weekly hours times the earnings per hour. Table IB-1
provides the estimates by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of earnings per
hour seasonally adjusted, increasing from $28.16/hour in Aug 2019 to $29.47/hour
in Aug 2020, or by 4.7 percent. The Bureau of Labor Statistics states (https://www.bls.gov/cps/employment-situation-covid19-faq-june-2020.pdf https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-july-2020.htm https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-august-2020.htm): “Similarly, changes in average hourly earnings in recent
months must be interpreted with caution. Average hourly earnings of all
employees on private nonfarm payrolls declined by 35 cents in June to $29.37,
following a decrease of 31 cents in May and a gain of $1.34 in April. The
increase in average hourly earnings in April largely reflects the
disproportionate number of lower-paid workers who went off payrolls, which put
upward pressure on the total private average hourly earnings estimate. Some of
these workers returned to payrolls in May and June, and job gains among
lower-paid workers put downward pressure on average hourly earnings, though the
effect is more muted given the smaller magnitude of employment changes in the
past 2 months.” There has been
disappointment about the pace of wage increases because of rising food and
energy costs that inhibit consumption and thus sales and similar concern about growth of consumption that
accounts for about 67.0 percent of GDP (Table I-10 at https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/d-ollar-devaluation-and-yuan.html). Growth of consumption by decreasing savings by means of
controlling interest rates in what is called financial repression may not be
lasting and sound for personal finances (See Pelaez and Pelaez, Globalization and the State, Vol. II
(2008c), 81-6, Pelaez (1975), Section II https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/thirty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/07/increase-of-total-nonfarm-payroll-jobs.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/06/creation-of-three-million-private.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/05/fifty-two-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/04/lockdown-of-economic-activity-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/03/stress-of-world-financial-markets-fomc.htmland earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/01/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/increase-in-valuations-of-risk.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/volatility-of-valuations-of-risk.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/increase-in-valuations-of-risk.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/dollar-appreciation-contraction-of.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/twenty-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/06/contraction-of-risk-financial-assets.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/04/flattening-yield-curve-of-treasury.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/03/dollar-revaluation-twenty-one-million.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/12/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/11/fluctuations-of-valuations-of-risk.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/09/fomc-increases-policy-interest-rate.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/09/revision-of-united-states-national.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/09/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/08/revision-of-united-states-national.html and earlier and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/07/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/stronger-dollar-mediocre-cyclical.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/04/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/twenty-three-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/twenty-four-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/dollar-devaluation-cyclically.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/11/unchanged-fomc-policy-rate-gradual.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/data-dependent-monetary-policy-with.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/rising-yields-twenty-two-million.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/04/twenty-three-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/twenty-six-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/twenty-four-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/rising-yields-and-dollar-revaluation.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/rising-yields-and-dollar-revaluation.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/the-case-for-increase-in-federal-funds.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/interest-rates-and-valuations-of-risk.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/global-competitive-easing-or.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/financial-asset-values-rebound-from.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/twenty-four-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/04/proceeding-cautiously-in-monetary.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/twenty-five-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/closely-monitoring-global-economic-and.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/dollar-revaluation-and-decreasing.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/dollar-revaluation-constraining.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/live-possibility-of-interest-rates.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/10/labor-market-uncertainty-and-interest.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/fluctuating-risk-financial-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/international-valuations-of-financial.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/higher-volatility-of-asset-prices-at.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/dollar-devaluation-and-carry-trade.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-competitive-devaluation-rules.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/job-creation-and-monetary-policy-twenty.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/growth-uncertainties-mediocre-cyclical.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitical-and-financial-risks.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/fluctuating-financial-valuations.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-instability-mediocre-cyclical.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-uncertainty-mediocre-cyclical.html
http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/collapse-of-united-states-dynamism-of.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/global-financial-risk-mediocre-united.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html
http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/increasing-interest-rate-risk.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/risks-of-steepening-yield-curve-and.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/tapering-quantitative-easing-policy-and.html
http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/mediocre-united-states-economic-growth.html
http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/mediocre-gdp-growth-at-16-to-20-percent.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/12/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_24.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/12/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/09/historically-sharper-recoveries-from.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/09/collapse-of-united-states-dynamism-of.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/07/recovery-without-jobs-stagnating-real.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/06/mediocre-recovery-without-jobs.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/04/mediocre-growth-with-high-unemployment.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/04/mediocre-economic-growth-falling-real.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/03/mediocre-economic-growth-flattening.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/01/mediocre-economic-growth-financial.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2011/12/slow-growth-falling-real-disposable.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2011/11/us-growth-standstill-falling-real.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2011/10/slow-growth-driven-by-reducing-savings.html). Average hourly earnings seasonally adjusted increased 0.4
percent from $29.36 in Jul 2020 to $29.47 in Aug 2020. The Bureau of Labor
Statistics states (https://www.bls.gov/cps/employment-situation-covid19-faq-june-2020.pdf https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-july-2020.htm https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-august-2020.htm): “Similarly, changes in average hourly earnings in
recent months must be interpreted with caution. Average hourly earnings of all
employees on private nonfarm payrolls declined by 35 cents in June to $29.37,
following a decrease of 31 cents in May and a gain of $1.34 in April. The
increase in average hourly earnings in April largely reflects the
disproportionate number of lower-paid workers who went off payrolls, which put
upward pressure on the total private average hourly earnings estimate. Some of
these workers returned to payrolls in May and June, and job gains among
lower-paid workers put downward pressure on average hourly earnings, though the
effect is more muted given the smaller magnitude of employment changes in the
past 2 months.” Average private
weekly earnings increased $50.96 from $968.70 in Aug 2019 to $1,019.66 in Aug
2020 or 5.3 percent and increased $6.74 from $1,012.92 in Jul 2020 to $1,019.66
in Aug 2020 or 0.7 percent. The Bureau of Labor Statistics analyzes the
increase in earnings (https://www.bls.gov/cps/employment-situation-covid19-faq-june-2020.pdf https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-july-2020.htm https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-august-2020.htm): “Similarly, changes in average hourly earnings in
recent months must be interpreted with caution. Average hourly earnings of all
employees on private nonfarm payrolls declined by 35 cents in June to $29.37,
following a decrease of 31 cents in May and a gain of $1.34 in April. The
increase in average hourly earnings in April largely reflects the
disproportionate number of lower-paid workers who went off payrolls, which put
upward pressure on the total private average hourly earnings estimate. Some of
these workers returned to payrolls in May and June, and job gains among
lower-paid workers put downward pressure on average hourly earnings, though the
effect is more muted given the smaller magnitude of employment changes in the
past 2 months.” The
inflation-adjusted wage bill can only be calculated for Jul, which is the most
recent month for which there are estimates of the consumer price index.
Earnings per hour (not-seasonally-adjusted (NSA) rose from $27.87 in Jul 2019
to $29.19 in Jul 2020 or by 4.7 percent (https://www.bls.gov/data/); see Table IB-3 below). Data NSA are more suitable for
comparison over a year. Average weekly hours NSA were 34.3 in
Jul 2019 and 34.5 in
Jul 2020 (https://www.bls.gov/data/; see Table IB-2 below). The wage bill increased 5.3 percent in
the 12 months ending in Jul 2020:
{[(wage bill in Jul 2020)/(wage bill in Jul 2019)]-1}100 =
{[($29.19x34.5)/($27.87x34.3)]-1]}100
= {[($1007.06)/($955.94]-1}100 = 5.3%
CPI inflation was 1.0
percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2020 (https://www.bls.gov/cpi/) for an inflation-adjusted wage-bill change of percent: {[(1.053/1.01)-1]100 = 4.3%} (see
Table IB-5 below for Jul 2020 with minor rounding difference). The wage bill
for Aug 2020 before inflation adjustment increased 7.6 percent relative to the
wage bill for Aug 2019:
{[(wage bill in Aug 2020)/(wage bill in Aug 2019)]-1}100 =
{[($29.48x35.2)/($27.94x34.5)]-1]}100
= {[($1037.70)/($963.93)]-1}100 = 7.6%
Average hourly
earnings increased 4.9 percent from Aug 2019 to Aug 2020 {[($29.48/$27.94) –
1]100 = 5.5%} while hours worked increased 0.6 percent {[(35.2/34.5) – 1]100 = 2.0%}.
The increase of the wage bill is the product of the increase of hourly earnings
of 5.5 percent and increase of hours worked of 2.0 percent {[(1.055x1.02)-1]100
= 7.6%} with small rounding error. The Bureau of Labor Statistics states (https://www.bls.gov/cps/employment-situation-covid19-faq-june-2020.pdf https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-july-2020.htm https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-august-2020.htm): “Similarly, changes in average hourly earnings in
recent months must be interpreted with caution. Average hourly earnings of all
employees on private nonfarm payrolls declined by 35 cents in June to $29.37,
following a decrease of 31 cents in May and a gain of $1.34 in April. The
increase in average hourly earnings in April largely reflects the
disproportionate number of lower-paid workers who went off payrolls, which put
upward pressure on the total private average hourly earnings estimate. Some of
these workers returned to payrolls in May and June, and job gains among
lower-paid workers put downward pressure on average hourly earnings, though the
effect is more muted given the smaller magnitude of employment changes in the
past 2 months.” Energy and food price increases are similar
to a “silent tax” that is highly regressive, harming the most those with lowest
incomes. There are concerns that the wage bill would deteriorate in purchasing
power because of renewed raw materials shocks in the form of increases in
prices of commodities such as the 31.1 percent steady increase in the DJ-UBS
Commodity Index from Jul 2, 2010 to Sep 2, 2011. The charts of four commodity
price indexes by Bloomberg show steady increase since Jul 2, 2010 that was
interrupted briefly only in Nov 2010 with the sovereign issues in Europe
triggered by Ireland; in Mar 2011 by the earthquake and tsunami in Japan; and
in the beginning of May 2011 by the decline in oil prices and sovereign risk
difficulties in Europe (http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/futures/). Renewed risk aversion because of the sovereign risks in
Europe had reduced the rate of increase of the DJ UBS commodity index to 10.2
percent on May 2, 2014, relative to Jul 2, 2010 (see Table VI-4) but there has
been a shift in investor preferences into equities. Inflation has been rising in waves with carry
trades driven by zero interest rates to commodity futures during periods of
risk appetite with interruptions during risk aversion (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/07/contraction-of-household-wealth-by-14.html). Inflation-adjusted wages fall sharply during carry trades
from zero interest rates to long positions in commodity futures during periods
of risk appetite.
Table IB-1, US, Earnings per Hour and Average Weekly Hours SA
|
Earnings per Hour |
Aug 2019 |
Jun 2020 |
Jul 2020 |
Aug 2020 |
|
Total Private |
$28.16 |
$29.32 |
$29.36 |
$29.47 |
|
Goods Producing |
$29.13 |
$29.94 |
$30.07 |
$30.18 |
|
Service Providing |
$27.93 |
$29.17 |
$29.19 |
$29.29 |
|
Average Weekly Earnings |
|
|
|
|
|
Total Private |
$968.70 |
$1,014.47 |
$1,012.92 |
$1,019.66 |
|
Goods Producing |
$1,173.94 |
$1,170.65 |
$1,187.77 |
$1,198.15 |
|
Service Providing |
$927.28 |
$980.11 |
$977.87 |
$984.14 |
|
Average Weekly Hours |
|
|
|
|
|
Total Private |
34.4 |
34.6 |
34.5 |
34.6 |
|
Goods Producing |
40.3 |
39.1 |
39.5 |
39.7 |
|
Service Providing |
33.2 |
33.6 |
33.5 |
33.6 |
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Average weekly hours in Table
IB-2 fell from 34.8 in Dec 2007 at the beginning of the contraction to 33.7 in
Jun 2009, which was the last month of the contraction. Average weekly hours
rose to 34.4 in Dec 2011 and oscillated to 34.8 in Dec 2012 and 34.7 in Dec
2013. Average weekly hours of all employees decreased to 34.6 in Dec 2014 and
34.5 in Dec 2015. Average weekly hours stood at 34.3 in Dec 2016. Average
weekly hours reached 34.5 in Dec 2017, increasing to 34.9 in Dec 2018. Average weekly hours moved to 34.7 in Dec
2019 and 35.2 in Aug 2020. The BLS is revising the data from 2006 to 2009 (https://www.bls.gov/ces/#notices) now available in the release
for Jan 2016 and subsequent months.
Table IB-2, US,
Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, NSA 2006-2020
|
Year |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Dec |
Annual |
|
2006 |
34.4 |
34.1 |
34.4 |
34.7 |
34.5 |
34.4 |
|
|
2007 |
34.5 |
34.3 |
34.5 |
34.8 |
34.5 |
34.8 |
34.4 |
|
2008 |
34.2 |
34.2 |
34.8 |
34.3 |
34.5 |
33.9 |
34.3 |
|
2009 |
33.5 |
33.6 |
33.7 |
33.8 |
34.3 |
33.8 |
33.8 |
|
2010 |
34.0 |
34.4 |
34.1 |
34.2 |
34.7 |
34.2 |
34.1 |
|
2011 |
34.2 |
34.6 |
34.3 |
34.4 |
34.4 |
34.4 |
34.3 |
|
2012 |
34.6 |
34.2 |
34.4 |
34.7 |
34.5 |
34.8 |
34.5 |
|
2013 |
34.3 |
34.3 |
34.9 |
34.3 |
34.5 |
34.7 |
34.4 |
|
2014 |
34.4 |
34.4 |
34.9 |
34.5 |
34.6 |
34.6 |
34.5 |
|
2015 |
34.4 |
34.4 |
34.5 |
34.5 |
35.1 |
34.5 |
34.5 |
|
2016 |
34.3 |
34.6 |
34.4 |
34.4 |
34.4 |
34.3 |
34.4 |
|
2017 |
34.6 |
34.3 |
34.4 |
34.8 |
34.4 |
34.5 |
34.4 |
|
2018 |
34.8 |
34.4 |
34.6 |
34.9 |
34.6 |
34.9 |
34.5 |
|
2019 |
34.3 |
34.3 |
34.9 |
34.3 |
34.5 |
34.7 |
34.4 |
|
2020 |
34.1 |
34.6 |
34.6 |
34.5 |
35.2 |
Source: US
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Chart IB-1 provides average
weekly hours of all employees seasonally adjusted. There was sharp contract
during the global recession. Hours returned to levels before the contraction.
Chart IB-1, US, Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, SA
2006-2020
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Calculations of inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings using
BLS data are in Table IB-3. The final column of Table IB-3 (“12-Month Real ∆%”)
provides inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings of all employees in the US.
Average hourly earnings rose above inflation throughout the first nine months
of 2007 just before the global recession that began in the final quarter of 2007
when average hourly earnings began to lose to inflation. In contrast, average
hourly earnings of all US workers have risen less than inflation in four months
in 2010 and in all but the first month in 2011 and the loss accelerated at 1.8
percent in Sep 2011, declining to a real loss of 1.1 percent in Feb 2012 and
0.6 percent in Mar 2012. There was a gain of 0.5 percent in Apr 2012 in
inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings but another fall of 0.6 percent in
May 2012 followed by increases of 0.3 percent in Jun and 1.0 percent in Jul
2012. Real hourly earnings stagnated in the 12 months ending in Aug 2012 with
increase of only 0.1 percent and increased 0.7 percent in the 12 months ending
in Sep 2012. Real hourly earnings fell 1.3 percent in Oct 2012 and gained 1.1
percent in Dec 2012 but declined 0.2 percent in Jan 2013 and stagnated at
change of 0.2 percent in Feb 2013. Real hourly earnings increased 0.5 percent
in the 12 months ending in Mar 2013 and 0.2 percent in Apr 2013, increasing 0.6
percent in May 2013. In Jun 2013, real hourly earnings increased 1.0 percent
relative to Jun 2012. Real hourly earnings fell 0.6 percent in the 12 months
ending in Jul 2013 and increased 0.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug
2013. Real hourly earnings increased 1.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct
2013 and 1.0 percent in Nov 2013. Real hourly earnings increased 0.4 percent in
the 12 months ending in Dec 2013. Real hourly earnings increased 0.4 percent in
the 12 months ending in Jan 2014 and 1.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb
2014. Real hourly earnings increased 1.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar
2014. Real hourly earnings changed 0.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr
2014. Real hourly earnings stagnated at 0.0 percent in the 12 months ending in
May 2014. Real hourly earnings changed 0.0 percent in the 12 months ending in
Jun 2014. Real hourly earnings increased 0.1 percent in the 12 months ending in
Jul 2014 and increased 0.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014. Real
hourly earnings fell 0.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2014 and
increased 0.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014. Real hourly earnings
increased 1.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2014. Real hourly earnings
increased 0.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2014 and increased 2.3
percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2015. Real hourly earnings increased 1.9
percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2015 and 2.3 percent in the 12 months
ending in Mar 2015. Real hourly earnings increased 2.4 percent in the 12 months
ending in Apr 2015 and increased 2.4 percent in the 12 months ending in May
2015. Real hourly earnings increased 1.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun
2015 and increased 2.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2015. Real hourly
earnings increased 2.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2015 and
increased 2.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2015. Real hourly earnings
increased 2.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2015 and increased 1.9 percent
in the 12 months ending in Nov 2015. Real hourly earnings increased 1.8 percent
in the 12 months ending in Dec 2015 and increased 1.1 percent in the 12 months
ending in Jan 2016. Real hourly earnings increased 0.7 percent in the 12 months
ending in Feb 2016 and increased 0.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar
2016. Real hourly earnings increased 1.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr
2016 and increased 2.2 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2016. Real hourly
earnings increased 1.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2016 and
increased 2.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2016. Real hourly earnings
increased 0.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2016 and increased 1.2
percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2016. Real hourly earnings increased 1.9
percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2016 and increased 0.2 percent in the 12
months ending in Nov 2016. Real hourly earnings increased 0.6 percent in the 12
months ending in Dec 2016 and increased 0.7 percent in the 12 months ending in
Jan 2017. Real hourly earnings changed 0.0 percent in the 12 months ending in
Feb 2017 and increased 0.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2017. Real
hourly earnings increased 1.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2017 and
decreased 0.1 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2017. Real hourly earnings
increased 0.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2017 and increased 1.6
percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2017. Real hourly earnings increased 0.7
percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2017 and increased 0.6 percent in the 12
months ending in Sep 2017. Real hourly earnings
increased 0.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2017 and increased 0.2
percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2017. Real hourly earnings increased 0.6
percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2017. Real hourly earnings changed 0.0
percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2018 and increased 0.4 percent in the 12
months ending in Feb 2018. Real hourly earnings
increased 0.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2018 and increased 0.3
percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2018. Real hourly earnings increased
0.1 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2018, changing 0.0 percent in the 12
months ending in Jun 2018. Real hourly earnings decreased 0.1 percent in the 12
months ending in Jul 2018. Real hourly earnings
increased 0.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2018 and increased 1.4
percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2018. Real hourly earnings decreased 0.1
percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2018. Real hourly earnings increased 1.1
percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2018. Real hourly earnings increased
2.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2018. Real hourly earnings increased
1.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2019. Real hourly earnings increased
2.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2019. Real hourly earnings increased
1.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2019. Real hourly earnings increased
0.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2019. Real hourly earnings increased
1.5 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2019. Real hourly earnings increased
2.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2019. Real hourly earnings increased
1.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2019. Real hourly earnings increased
1.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2019. Real hourly earnings increased
1.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2019. Real hourly earnings increased
1.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2019. Real hourly earnings increased
1.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2019. Real hourly earnings increased
0.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2019. Real hourly earnings increased
0.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2020. Real hourly earnings increased
1.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2020. Real hourly earnings increased
2.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2020. Real hourly earnings increased
7.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2020. Real hourly earnings increased
6.5 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2020. Real hourly earnings increased
3.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2020. Real hourly earnings increased
3.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2020. The Bureau of Labor Statistics
advises on hourly earnings in Apr 2020 (https://www.bls.gov/cps/employment-situation-covid19-faq-april-2020.pdf https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-july-2020.htm): “Similarly, estimates of average hourly earnings for
April also must be interpreted with extra caution. Average hourly earnings of
all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by $1.34 in April to $30.01,
following a gain of 15 cents in March. While some workers experienced an
increase in pay in April, the increase in average hourly earnings reflects the
disproportionate number of lower-paid workers who went off payrolls; their
removal put upward pressure on the average hourly earnings estimate.” The Bureau of Labor Statistics states (https://www.bls.gov/cps/employment-situation-covid19-faq-may-2020.pdf https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-july-2020.htm): “Similarly, estimates of average hourly earnings for
May must be interpreted with caution. Average hourly earnings of all employees
on private nonfarm payrolls declined by 29 cents in May to $29.75, following a
gain of $1.35 in April. The increase in average hourly earnings in April
largely reflects the disproportionate number of lower-paid workers who went off
payrolls, which put upward pressure on the total private average hourly
earnings estimate. Some of these workers returned to payrolls in May, and job
gains among lower-paid workers put downward pressure on average hourly
earnings, though the effect is more muted given the smaller magnitude of the
employment change. The large changes in employment in recent months make it
difficult to discern longer-term trends in the hours and earnings measures.” The Bureau of Labor Statistics states (https://www.bls.gov/cps/employment-situation-covid19-faq-june-2020.pdf https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-july-2020.htm https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-august-2020.htm): “Similarly, changes in average hourly earnings in
recent months must be interpreted with caution. Average hourly earnings of all
employees on private nonfarm payrolls declined by 35 cents in June to $29.37,
following a decrease of 31 cents in May and a gain of $1.34 in April. The
increase in average hourly earnings in April largely reflects the disproportionate
number of lower-paid workers who went off payrolls, which put upward pressure
on the total private average hourly earnings estimate. Some of these workers
returned to payrolls in May and June, and job gains among lower-paid workers
put downward pressure on average hourly earnings, though the effect is more
muted given the smaller magnitude of employment changes in the past 2 months.” Real hourly earnings are oscillating in part because of world
inflation waves caused by carry trades from zero interest rates to commodity
futures (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/d-ollar-devaluation-and-yuan.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/07/contraction-of-household-wealth-by-14.html) and also by weak
economic growth (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/d-ollar-devaluation-and-yuan.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/contraction-of-united-states-gdp-at-32_57.html). The BLS is
revising the data from 2006 to 2009 (http://www.bls.gov/ces/#notices) now available
in the release for Jan 2016 and subsequent releases.
Table IB-3, US,
Average Hourly Earnings Nominal and Inflation Adjusted, Dollars and % NSA
|
AHE ALL |
12 Month- |
∆% 12 Month
CPI |
12-Month |
|
|
2007 |
||||
|
Jan* |
$20.69* |
4.2* |
2.1 |
2.1* |
|
Feb* |
$20.77* |
4.1* |
2.4 |
1.7* |
|
Mar |
$20.75 |
3.4 |
2.8 |
0.6 |
|
Apr |
$20.99 |
3.1 |
2.6 |
0.5 |
|
May |
$20.77 |
3.5 |
2.7 |
0.8 |
|
Jun |
$20.77 |
3.6 |
2.7 |
0.9 |
|
Jul |
$20.94 |
3.3 |
2.4 |
0.9 |
|
Aug |
$20.79 |
3.3 |
2.0 |
1.3 |
|
Sep |
$21.12 |
3.8 |
2.8 |
1.0 |
|
Oct |
$21.01 |
2.4 |
3.5 |
-1.1 |
|
Nov |
$21.07 |
3.1 |
4.3 |
-1.2 |
|
Dec |
$21.30 |
3.4 |
4.1 |
-0.7 |
|
2010 |
||||
|
Jan |
$22.51 |
2.1 |
2.6 |
-0.5 |
|
Feb |
$22.57 |
1.6 |
2.1 |
-0.5 |
|
Mar |
$22.48 |
1.2 |
2.3 |
-1.1 |
|
Apr |
$22.53 |
1.8 |
2.2 |
-0.4 |
|
May |
$22.60 |
2.5 |
2.0 |
0.5 |
|
Jun |
$22.34 |
1.8 |
1.1 |
0.6 |
|
Jul |
$22.41 |
1.9 |
1.2 |
0.7 |
|
Aug |
$22.54 |
1.7 |
1.1 |
0.7 |
|
Sep |
$22.60 |
1.8 |
1.1 |
0.7 |
|
Oct |
$22.69 |
1.9 |
1.2 |
0.7 |
|
Nov |
$22.69 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
0.0 |
|
Dec |
$22.76 |
1.7 |
1.5 |
0.2 |
|
2011 |
||||
|
Jan |
$23.16 |
2.9 |
1.6 |
1.3 |
|
Feb |
$22.99 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
-0.2 |
|
Mar |
$22.90 |
1.9 |
2.7 |
-0.8 |
|
Apr |
$22.96 |
1.9 |
3.2 |
-1.3 |
|
May |
$23.06 |
2.0 |
3.6 |
-1.5 |
|
Jun |
$22.81 |
2.1 |
3.6 |
-1.4 |
|
Jul |
$22.94 |
2.4 |
3.6 |
-1.2 |
|
Aug |
$22.84 |
1.3 |
3.8 |
-2.4 |
|
Sep |
$23.05 |
2.0 |
3.9 |
-1.8 |
|
Oct |
$23.29 |
2.6 |
3.5 |
-0.9 |
|
Nov |
$23.14 |
2.0 |
3.4 |
-1.4 |
|
Dec |
$23.21 |
2.0 |
3.0 |
-1.0 |
|
2012 |
||||
|
Jan |
$23.55 |
1.7 |
2.9 |
-1.2 |
|
Feb |
$23.40 |
1.8 |
2.9 |
-1.1 |
|
Mar |
$23.38 |
2.1 |
2.7 |
-0.6 |
|
Apr |
$23.61 |
2.8 |
2.3 |
0.5 |
|
May |
$23.32 |
1.1 |
1.7 |
-0.6 |
|
Jun |
$23.26 |
2.0 |
1.7 |
0.3 |
|
Jul |
$23.48 |
2.4 |
1.4 |
1.0 |
|
Aug |
$23.26 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
0.1 |
|
Sep |
$23.67 |
2.7 |
2.0 |
0.7 |
|
Oct |
$23.51 |
0.9 |
2.2 |
-1.3 |
|
Nov |
$23.58 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
0.1 |
|
Dec |
$23.85 |
2.8 |
1.7 |
1.1 |
|
2013 |
||||
|
Jan |
$23.87 |
1.4 |
1.6 |
-0.2 |
|
Feb |
$23.90 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
0.2 |
|
Mar |
$23.84 |
2.0 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
Apr |
$23.92 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
0.2 |
|
May |
$23.79 |
2.0 |
1.4 |
0.6- |
|
Jun |
$23.92 |
2.8 |
1.8 |
1.0 |
|
Jul |
$23.80 |
1.4 |
2.0 |
-0.6 |
|
Aug |
$23.79 |
2.3 |
1.5 |
0.8 |
|
Sep |
$24.16 |
2.1 |
1.2 |
0.9 |
|
Oct |
$24.04 |
2.3 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
|
Nov |
$24.11 |
2.2 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
|
Dec |
$24.30 |
1.9 |
1.5 |
0.4 |
|
2014 |
||||
|
Jan |
$24.34 |
2.0 |
1.6 |
0.4 |
|
Feb |
$24.58 |
2.8 |
1.1 |
1.7 |
|
Mar |
$24.49 |
2.7 |
1.5 |
1.2 |
|
Apr |
$24.40 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
0.0 |
|
May |
$24.30 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
0.0 |
|
Jun |
$24.42 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
0.0 |
|
Jul |
$24.30 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
0.1 |
|
Aug |
$24.32 |
2.2 |
1.7 |
0.5 |
|
Sep |
$24.50 |
1.4 |
1.7 |
-0.3 |
|
Oct |
$24.52 |
2.0 |
1.7 |
0.3 |
|
Nov |
$24.78 |
2.8 |
1.3 |
1.5 |
|
Dec |
$24.58 |
1.2 |
0.8 |
0.4 |
|
2015 |
||||
|
Jan |
$24.87 |
2.2 |
-0.1 |
2.3 |
|
Feb |
$25.05 |
1.9 |
0.0 |
1.9 |
|
Mar |
$25.04 |
2.2 |
-0.1 |
2.3 |
|
Apr |
$24.94 |
2.2 |
-0.2 |
2.4 |
|
May |
$24.88 |
2.4 |
0.0 |
2.4 |
|
Jun |
$24.76 |
1.4 |
0.1 |
1.3 |
|
Jul |
$24.83 |
2.2 |
0.2 |
2.0 |
|
Aug |
$25.03 |
2.9 |
0.2 |
2.7 |
|
Sep |
$25.05 |
2.2 |
0.0 |
2.2 |
|
Oct |
$25.14 |
2.5 |
0.2 |
2.3 |
|
Nov |
$25.37 |
2.4 |
0.5 |
1.9 |
|
Dec |
$25.20 |
2.5 |
0.7 |
1.8 |
|
2016 |
||||
|
Jan |
$25.50 |
2.5 |
1.4 |
1.1 |
|
Feb |
$25.48 |
1.7 |
1.0 |
0.7 |
|
$25.49 |
1.8 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
|
|
Apr |
$25.59 |
2.6 |
1.1 |
1.5 |
|
May |
$25.67 |
3.2 |
1.0 |
2.2 |
|
Jun |
$25.41 |
2.6 |
1.0 |
1.6 |
|
Jul |
$25.52 |
2.8 |
0.8 |
2.0 |
|
Aug |
$25.50 |
1.9 |
1.1 |
0.8 |
|
Sep |
$25.73 |
2.7 |
1.5 |
1.2 |
|
Oct |
$26.02 |
3.5 |
1.6 |
1.9 |
|
Nov |
$25.84 |
1.9 |
1.7 |
0.2 |
|
$25.87 |
2.7 |
2.1 |
0.6 |
|
|
2017 |
|
|
|
|
|
Jan |
$26.31 |
3.2 |
2.5 |
0.7 |
|
Feb |
$26.17 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
0.0 |
|
$26.14 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
0.2 |
|
|
Apr |
$26.42 |
3.2 |
2.2 |
1.0 |
|
May |
$26.13 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
-0.1 |
|
Jun |
$26.03 |
2.4 |
1.6 |
0.8 |
|
Jul |
$26.35 |
3.3 |
1.7 |
1.6 |
|
Aug |
$26.17 |
2.6 |
1.9 |
0.7 |
|
Sep |
$26.46 |
2.8 |
2.2 |
0.6 |
|
Oct |
$26.62 |
2.3 |
2.0 |
0.3 |
|
Nov |
$26.47 |
2.4 |
2.2 |
0.2 |
|
Dec |
$26.58 |
2.7 |
2.1 |
0.6 |
|
2018 |
|
|
|
|
|
Jan |
$26.86 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
0.0 |
|
Feb |
$26.84 |
2.6 |
2.2 |
0.4 |
|
Mar |
$26.87 |
2.8 |
2.4 |
0.4 |
|
Apr |
$27.16 |
2.8 |
2.5 |
0.3 |
|
May |
$26.90 |
2.9 |
2.8 |
0.1 |
|
Jun |
$26.79 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
0.0 |
|
Jul |
$27.10 |
2.8 |
2.9 |
-0.1 |
|
Aug |
$27.00 |
3.2 |
2.7 |
0.5 |
|
Sep |
$27.45 |
3.7 |
2.3 |
1.4 |
|
Oct |
$27.31 |
2.6 |
2.5 |
0.1 |
|
Nov |
$27.35 |
3.3 |
2.2 |
1.1 |
|
Dec |
$27.69 |
4.2 |
1.9 |
2.3 |
|
2019 |
|
|
|
|
|
Jan |
$27.72 |
3.2 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
|
Feb |
$27.79 |
3.5 |
1.5 |
2.0 |
|
Mar |
$27.79 |
3.4 |
1.9 |
1.5 |
|
Apr |
$27.86 |
2.6 |
2.0 |
0.6 |
|
May |
$27.78 |
3.3 |
1.8 |
1.5 |
|
Jun |
$27.90 |
4.1 |
1.6 |
2.5 |
|
Jul |
$27.87 |
2.8 |
1.8 |
1.0 |
|
Aug |
$27.94 |
3.5 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
|
Sep |
$28.30 |
3.1 |
1.7 |
1.4 |
|
Oct |
$28.19 |
3.2 |
1.8 |
1.4 |
|
Nov |
$28.26 |
3.3 |
2.1 |
1.2 |
|
Dec |
$28.51 |
3.0 |
2.3 |
0.7 |
|
2020 |
|
|
|
|
|
Jan |
$28.56 |
3.0 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
|
Feb |
$28.82 |
3.7 |
2.3 |
1.4 |
|
Mar |
$28.88 |
3.9 |
1.5 |
2.4 |
|
Apr |
$30.08 |
8.0 |
0.3 |
7.7 |
|
May |
$29.61 |
6.6 |
0.1 |
6.5 |
|
Jun |
$29.08 |
4.2 |
0.6 |
3.6 |
|
Jul |
$29.19 |
4.7 |
1.0 |
3.7 |
|
Aug |
$29.48 |
5.5 |
|
|
Note: AHE ALL:
average hourly earnings of all employees; CPI: consumer price index; Real: adjusted
by CPI inflation; NA: not available
*AHE of
production and nonsupervisory employees because of unavailability of data for
all employees for Jan-Feb 2006
Source: US
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Calculations of
inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings by the BLS are in Table IB-4.
Average hourly earnings rose above inflation throughout the first nine months
of 2007 just before the global recession that began in the final quarter of
2007 when average hourly earnings began to lose to inflation. In contrast,
average hourly earnings of all US workers have risen less than inflation in
four months in 2010 and in all but the first month in 2011 and the loss
accelerated at 1.8 percent in Sep 2011, declining to a real loss of 1.1 percent
in Feb 2012 and 0.6 percent in Mar 2012. There was a gain of 0.5 percent in Apr
2012 in inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings but another fall of 0.6
percent in May 2012 followed by increases of 0.3 percent in Jun and 1.0 percent
in Jul 2012. Real hourly earnings stagnated in the 12 months ending in Aug 2012
with increase of only 0.2 percent and increased 0.7 percent in the 12 months
ending in Sep 2012. Real hourly earnings fell 1.3 percent in Oct 2012 and
gained 1.1 percent in Dec 2012 but declined 0.2 percent in Jan 2013 and
stagnated at change of 0.1 percent in Feb 2013. Real hourly earnings increased
0.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2013 and 0.3 percent in Apr 2013,
increasing 0.6 percent in May 2013. In Jun 2013, real hourly earnings increased
1.0 percent relative to Jun 2012. Real hourly earnings fell 0.6 percent in the
12 months ending in Jul 2013 and increased 0.7 percent in the 12 months ending
in Aug 2013. Real hourly earnings increased 1.3 percent in the 12 months ending
in Oct 2013 and 1.0 percent in Nov 2013. Real hourly earnings increased 0.4
percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013. Real hourly earnings increased 0.4
percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2014 and 1.7 percent in the 12 months
ending in Feb 2014. Real hourly earnings increased 1.2 percent in the 12 months
ending in Mar 2014. Real hourly changed 0.0 percent in the 12 months ending in
Apr 2014. Real hourly changed 0.0 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2014.
Real hourly earnings increased 0.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2014.
Real hourly earnings increased 0.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2014
and increased 0.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014. Real hourly
earnings fell 0.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2014 and increased 0.4
percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014. Real hourly earnings increased 1.5
percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2014 and 0.4 percent in the 12 months
ending in Dec 2014. Real hourly earnings increased 2.2 percent in the 12 months
ending in Jan 2015 and increased 1.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb
2015. Real hourly earnings increased 2.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar
2015 and increased 2.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2015. Real hourly
earnings increased 2.4 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2015 and 1.3
percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2015. Real hourly earnings increased 2.0
percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2015 and increased 2.7 percent in the 12
months ending in Aug 2015. Real hourly earnings increased 2.3 percent in the 12
months ending in Sep 2015. Real hourly earnings increased 2.3 percent in the 12
months ending in Oct 2015 and increased 1.9 percent in the 12 months ending in
Nov 2015. Average hourly earnings increased
1.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2015 and increased 1.1 percent in
the 12 months ending in Jan 2016. Real hourly earnings increased 0.7 percent in
the 12 months ending in Feb 2016 and increased 0.9 percent in the 12 months
ending in Mar 2016. Real hourly earnings increased 1.5 percent in the 12 months
ending in Apr 2016 and increased 2.2 percent in the 12 months ending in May
2016. Real hourly earnings increased 1.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun
2016 and increased 2.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2016. Real hourly
earnings increased 0.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2016 and
increased 1.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2016. Real hourly earnings
increased 1.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2016 and increased 0.2
percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2016. Real hourly earnings increased 0.7
percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2016 and increased 0.7 percent in the 12
months ending in Jan 2017.
Real hourly earnings decreased 0.1 percent in the 12 months
ending in Feb 2017 and increased 0.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar
2017. Real hourly earnings increased 0.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr
2017 and decreased 0.1 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2017. Real hourly
earnings increased 0.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2017 and
increased 1.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2017. Real hourly earnings
increased 0.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2017 and increased 0.6
percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2017. Real hourly earnings increased 0.3
percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2017 and increased 0.2 percent in the 12
months ending in Nov 2017. Real hourly earnings increased 0.6 percent in the 12
months ending in Dec 2017. Real hourly earnings increased 0.1 percent in the 12
months ending in Jan 2018 and increased 0.4 percent in the 12 months ending in
Feb 2018. Real hourly earnings increased 0.5 percent in the 12 months ending in
Mar 2018 and increased 0.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2018. Real
hourly earnings increased 0.1 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2018 and
changed 0.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2018. Real hourly earnings
decreased 0.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2018 and increased 0.5
percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2018. Real hourly earnings increased 1.4
percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2018 and changed 0.1 percent in the 12
months ending in Oct 2018. Real hourly earnings increased 1.1 percent in the 12
months ending in Nov 2018 and increased 2.2 percent in the 12 months ending in
Dec 2018. Real hourly earnings increased 1.6 percent in the 12 months ending in
Jan 2019 and increased 1.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2019. Real
hourly earnings increased 1.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2019 and
increased 0.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2019. Real hourly earnings
increased 1.5 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2019 and increased 2.4
percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2019.
Real hourly earnings increased 1.0 percent in the 12 months ending in
Jul 2019 and increased 1.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2019. Real
hourly earnings increased 1.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2019 and
increased 1.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2019. Real hourly earnings increased 1.3 percent in
the 12 months ending in Nov 2019 and increased 0.6 percent in the 12 months
ending in Dec 2019. Real hourly earnings increased 0.5 percent in the 12 months
ending in Jan 2020. Real hourly earnings increased 1.4 percent in the 12 months
ending in Feb 2020. Real hourly earnings increased 2.4 percent in the 12 months
ending in Mar 2020. Real hourly earnings increased 7.6 percent in the 12 months
ending in Apr 2020. Real hourly earnings increased 6.5 percent in the 12 months
ending in May 2020. Real hourly earnings increased 3.6 percent in the 12 months
ending in Jun 2020. Real hourly earnings increased 3.8 percent in the 12 months
ending in Jul 2020. The Bureau of Labor Statistics states (https://www.bls.gov/cps/employment-situation-covid19-faq-june-2020.pdf https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-july-2020.htm https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-august-2020.htm): “Similarly, estimates of average hourly earnings for
May must be interpreted with caution. Average hourly earnings of all employees
on private nonfarm payrolls declined by 29 cents in May to $29.75, following a gain
of $1.35 in April. The increase in average hourly earnings in April largely
reflects the disproportionate number of lower-paid workers who went off
payrolls, which put upward pressure on the total private average hourly
earnings estimate. Some of these workers returned to payrolls in May, and job
gains among lower-paid workers put downward pressure on average hourly
earnings, though the effect is more muted given the smaller magnitude of the
employment change. The large changes in employment in recent months make it
difficult to discern longer-term trends in the hours and earnings measures.” The economic welfare or wellbeing of United States workers
deteriorated in a recovery without hiring (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/nonfarm-hires-jump-64.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/07/collapse-of-united-states-dynamism-of.html), stagnating/declining
real wages and 34.8 million unemployed or underemployed (Section I and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/thirty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html) because of mediocre
economic growth (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/d-ollar-devaluation-and-yuan.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/contraction-of-united-states-gdp-at-32_57.html). The BLS is revising
the data from 2006 to 2009 (https://www.bls.gov/ces/#notices) now available in the
release for Jan 2016 and subsequent releases.
Table IB-4, US,
Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees NSA in Constant Dollars of 1982-1984
|
Year |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Dec |
|
2006 |
10.10 |
9.91 |
9.88 |
9.97 |
10.21 |
|
2007 |
10.16 |
9.99 |
9.97 |
10.05 |
10.14 |
|
2008 |
9.98 |
9.88 |
9.82 |
9.75 |
10.45 |
|
2009 |
10.38 |
10.31 |
10.18 |
10.22 |
10.36 |
|
2010 |
10.33 |
10.36 |
10.25 |
10.28 |
10.38 |
|
2011 |
10.21 |
10.21 |
10.11 |
10.15 |
10.28 |
|
2012 |
10.26 |
10.15 |
10.14 |
10.25 |
10.39 |
|
∆%12M |
0.5 |
-0.6 |
0.3 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
|
2013 |
10.29 |
10.21 |
10.24 |
10.19 |
10.43 |
|
∆%12M |
0.3 |
0.6 |
1.0 |
-0.6 |
0.4 |
|
2014 |
10.29 |
10.21 |
10.25 |
10.20 |
10.47 |
|
∆%12M |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
|
2015 |
10.54 |
10.46 |
10.38 |
10.40 |
10.65 |
|
∆%12M |
2.4 |
2.4 |
1.3 |
2.0 |
1.7 |
|
2016 |
10.70 |
10.69 |
10.54 |
10.61 |
10.72 |
|
∆%12M |
1.5 |
2.2 |
1.5 |
2.0 |
0.7 |
|
2017 |
10.80 |
10.68 |
10.63 |
10.76 |
10.78 |
|
∆%12M |
0.9 |
-0.1 |
0.9 |
1.4 |
0.6 |
|
2018 |
10.84 |
10.69 |
10.63 |
10.75 |
11.02 |
|
∆%12M |
0.4 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
-0.1 |
2.2 |
|
2019 |
10.90 |
10.85 |
10.89 |
10.86 |
11.09 |
|
∆%12M |
0.6 |
1.5 |
2.4 |
1.0 |
0.6 |
|
2020 |
11.73 |
11.55 |
11.28 |
11.27 |
|
|
∆%12M |
7.6 |
6.5 |
3.6 |
3.8 |
Source: US
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Chart IB-2
of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics plots average hourly earnings of all US
employees in constant 1982-1984 dollars with evident decline from annual
earnings of $10.33 in 2009 and $10.35 in 2010 to $10.24 in 2011 and $10.23 in
2012 or loss of 1.0 percent (data in https://www.bls.gov/data/). Annual
real hourly earnings increased 0.5 percent in 2013 relative to 2012 and
increased 0.5 percent in 2014 relative to 2013. Annual real hourly earnings
increased 2.1 percent in 2015 relative to 2014. Annual real hourly earnings
increased 1.2 percent in 2016 relative to 2015. Annual real hourly earnings
increased 0.6 percent in 2017. Annual hourly earnings increased 0.6 percent in
2018. Annual hourly earnings increased 1.4 percent in 2019. Annual real hourly
earnings increased 8.5 percent from 2007 to 2019 at the rate of 0.7 percent per
year. Annual real hourly earnings increased 6.0 percent from 2009 to 2019 at
the rate of 0.6 percent per year and increased 9.4 percent from 2008 to 2019 at
the rate of 0.8 percent per year. Real hourly earnings of US workers are
crawling in a fractured labor market. The economic welfare or wellbeing of United States workers
deteriorated in a recovery without hiring (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/07/collapse-of-united-states-dynamism-of.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/06/global-recession-with-output-in-us.html), stagnating/declining
real wages and 34.8 million unemployed or underemployed (Section I and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/thirty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html) because of mediocre
economic growth (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/d-ollar-devaluation-and-yuan.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/contraction-of-united-states-gdp-at-32_57.html). The BLS is revising
the data from 2006 to 2009 (http://www.bls.gov/ces/#notices) now available for the
release of Jan 2016 and subsequent releases.
Chart IB-2, US, Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees in
Constant Dollars of 1982-1984, SA 2006-2020
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/data
Chart IB-3 provides 12-month
percentage changes of average hourly earnings of all employees in constant
dollars of 1982-1984, that is, adjusted for inflation. There was sharp
contraction of inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings of US employees
during parts of 2007 and 2008. Rates of change in 12 months became positive in
parts of 2009 and 2010 but then became negative again in 2011 and into 2012
with temporary increase in Apr 2012 that was reversed in May with another gain
in Jun and Jul 2012 followed by stagnation in Aug 2012. There was marginal gain
in Sep 2012 with sharp decline in Oct 2012, stagnation in Nov 2012, increase in
Dec 2012 and renewed decrease in Jan 2013 with near stagnation in Feb 2013
followed by mild increase in Mar-Apr 2013. Hourly earnings adjusted for
inflation increased in Jun 2013 and fell in Jul 2013, increasing in Aug-Dec
2013 and Jan-Mar 2014. Average hourly earnings stagnated in Apr-May 2014 and
rebounded mildly in Jul 2014, increasing in Aug 2014 and Sep 2014. Average
hourly earnings adjusted for inflation increased in Oct-Dec 2014, Jan-Dec 2015,
Jan-Dec 2016 and Jan-Apr 2017, stabilizing in May 2017 and
increasing/decreasing in oscillations in Jun-Dec 2017. Average hourly earnings
adjusted for inflation increased in Jan-Apr 2018. Average hourly earnings
adjusted for inflation stagnated in May-Jun 2018 and decreased in Jul 2018.
Average hourly earnings increased 0.5 percent in Aug 2018. Average hourly
earnings increased 1.4 percent in Sep 2018 and changed 0.1 percent in Oct 2018,
increasing 1.1 percent in Nov 2018. Average hourly earnings increased 2.2
percent in Dec 2018 and increased 1.6 percent in Jan 2019. Average hourly
earnings increased 1.9 percent in Feb 2019 and increased 1.5 percent in Mar
2019. Average hourly earnings increased 0.6 percent in Apr 2019 and increased
1.5 percent in May 2019. Average hourly earnings increased 2.4 percent in Jun
2019 and increased 1.0 percent in Jul 2019. Average hourly earnings increased
1.7 percent in Aug 2019 and increased 1.4 percent in Sep 2019. Average hourly
earnings increased 1.4 percent in Oct 2019 and increased 1.3 percent in the 12
months ending in Nov 2019. Average hourly earnings increased 0.6 percent in the
12 months ending in Dec 2019 and increased 0.5 percent in the 12 months ending
in Jan 2020. Average hourly earnings increased 1.4 percent in the 12 months
ending in Feb 2020. Average hourly earnings increased 2.4 percent in the 12
months ending in Mar 2020. Average hourly earnings increased 7.6 percent in the
12 months ending in Apr 2020. Average hourly earnings increased 6.5 percent in
the 12 months ending May 2020. Average hourly earnings increased 3.6 percent in
the 12 months ending in Jun 2020. Average hourly earnings increased 3.8 percent
in the 12 months ending in Jul 2020. The Bureau of
Labor Statistics advises on hourly earnings in Apr 2020 (https://www.bls.gov/cps/employment-situation-covid19-faq-april-2020.pdf https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-july-2020.htm): “Similarly, estimates of average hourly earnings for
April also must be interpreted with extra caution. Average hourly earnings of
all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by $1.34 in April to $30.01,
following a gain of 15 cents in March. While some workers experienced an
increase in pay in April, the increase in average hourly earnings reflects the
disproportionate number of lower-paid workers who went off payrolls; their
removal put upward pressure on the average hourly earnings estimate.” The Bureau of Labor Statistics states (): “Similarly,
estimates of average hourly earnings for May must be interpreted with caution.
Average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls declined
by 29 cents in May to $29.75, following a gain of $1.35 in April. The increase
in average hourly earnings in April largely reflects the disproportionate
number of lower-paid workers who went off payrolls, which put upward pressure
on the total private average hourly earnings estimate. Some of these workers
returned to payrolls in May, and job gains among lower-paid workers put
downward pressure on average hourly earnings, though the effect is more muted
given the smaller magnitude of the employment change. The large changes in
employment in recent months make it difficult to discern longer-term trends in
the hours and earnings measures.” The Bureau of Labor
Statistics states (https://www.bls.gov/cps/employment-situation-covid19-faq-june-2020.pdf https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-july-2020.htm https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-august-2020.htm): “Similarly, changes in average hourly earnings in
recent months must be interpreted with caution. Average hourly earnings of all
employees on private nonfarm payrolls declined by 35 cents in June to $29.37,
following a decrease of 31 cents in May and a gain of $1.34 in April. The
increase in average hourly earnings in April largely reflects the disproportionate
number of lower-paid workers who went off payrolls, which put upward pressure
on the total private average hourly earnings estimate. Some of these workers
returned to payrolls in May and June, and job gains among lower-paid workers
put downward pressure on average hourly earnings, though the effect is more
muted given the smaller magnitude of employment changes in the past 2 months.”
Chart IB-3, Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees NSA
12-Month Percent Change, 1982-1984 Dollars, NSA 2007-2020
Source: US
Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/data
Average weekly earnings of the dataset of the US Bureau
of Labor Statistics (BLS) are in Table IB-5. Average weekly earnings fell 3.2
percent after adjusting for inflation in the 12 months ending in Aug 2011,
decreased 1.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2011 and increased 0.6
percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2011. Average weekly earnings fell 1.1
percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2011 and fell 0.4 percent in the 12
months ending in Dec 2011. Average weekly earnings declined 0.3 percent in the
12 months ending in Jan 2012 and fell 0.5 percent in the 12 months ending in
Feb 2012. Average weekly earnings in constant dollars were virtually flat in
Mar 2012 relative to Mar 2011, decreasing 0.2 percent. Average weekly earnings
in constant dollars increased 1.7 percent in Apr 2012 relative to Apr 2011 but
fell 1.7 percent in May 2012 relative to May 2011, increasing 0.6 percent in
the 12 months ending in Jun 2012 and 1.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul
2012. Real weekly earnings increased 0.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug
2012 and 2.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2012. Real weekly earnings
fell 2.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2012 and increased 0.1 percent
in the 12 months ending in Nov 2012 and 2.2 percent in the 12 months ending in
Dec 2012. Real weekly earnings fell 1.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan
2013 and virtually stagnated with gain of 0.2 percent in the 12 months ending
in Feb 2013, increasing 0.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2013. Real
weekly earnings fell 0.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2013 and
increased 0.9 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2013. Average weekly
earnings increased 2.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2013 and fell 1.7
percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2013. Real weekly earnings increased 0.7
percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2013, 1.2 percent in the 12 months
ending in Sep 2013 and 1.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2013. Average
weekly earnings increased 1.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2013 and
increased 0.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013. Average weekly
earnings increased 0.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2014 and 2.3
percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2014. Average weekly earnings increased
2.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2014 and 0.3 percent in the 12
months ending in Apr 2014. Average weekly earnings in constant dollars
increased 0.3 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2014 and changed 0.0
percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2014. Real average weekly earnings
increased 0.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2014 and 0.8 percent in
the 12 months ending in Aug 2014. Real weekly earnings decreased 1.4 percent in
the 12 months ending in Sep 2014 and increased 0.6 percent in the 12 months
ending in Oct 2014. Average weekly earnings increased 2.9 percent in the 12
months ending in Nov 2014 and increased 0.1 percent in the 12 months ending in
Dec 2014. Average weekly earnings increased 2.9 percent in the 12 months ending
in Jan 2015 and increased 2.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2015.
Average weekly earnings adjusted for inflation increased 2.3 percent in the 12
months ending in Mar 2015 and increased 2.4 percent in the 12 months ending in
Apr 2015. Average weekly earnings adjusted for inflation increased 2.4 percent
in the 12 months ending in May 2015 and increased 0.1 percent in the 12 months
ending in Jun 2015. Average weekly earnings increased 2.0 percent in the 12
months ending in Jul 2015 and 4.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2015.
Average weekly earnings adjusted for inflation increased 1.7 percent in the 12
months ending in Sep 2015 and increased 2.4 percent in the 12 months ending in
Oct 2015. Average weekly earnings adjusted for inflation increased 1.6 percent
in the 12 months ending in Nov 2015 and increased 1.5 percent in the 12 months
ending in Dec 2015. Average weekly earnings increased 1.1 percent in the 12
months ending in Jan 2016. Average weekly earnings contracted 0.8 percent in
the 12 months ending in Feb 2015 and contracted 0.5 percent in the 12 months
ending in Mar 2016. Average weekly earnings increased 1.2 percent in the 12
months ending in Apr 2016 and increased 2.7 percent in the 12 months ending in
May 2016. Average weekly earnings increased 1.3 percent in the 12 months ending
in Jun 2016 and increased 1.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2016.
Average weekly earnings decreased 1.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug
2016 and increased 1.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2016. Average
weekly earnings increased 2.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2016 and
decreased 1.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2016. Average weekly
earnings changed 0.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2016 and increased
1.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2017. Average weekly earnings
changed 0.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2017. Average weekly
earnings decreased 0.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2017 and
increased 1.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2017. Average weekly
earnings decreased 0.9 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2017 and
increased 0.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2017. Average weekly earnings increased 2.7 percent
in the 12 months ending in Jul 2017 and increased 0.7 percent in the 12 months
ending in Aug 2017. Average weekly earnings increased 0.3 percent in the 12
months ending in Sep 2017 and increased 0.3 percent in the 12 months ending in
Oct 2017. Average weekly earnings increased 0.5 percent in the 12 months ending
in Nov 2017. Average weekly earnings increased 1.2 percent in the 12 months
ending in Dec 2017. Average weekly earnings decreased 1.1 percent in the 12
months ending in Jan 2018 and increased 0.9 percent in the 12 months ending in
Feb 2018. Average weekly earnings increased 1.0 percent in the 12 months ending
in Mar 2018 and increased 0.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2018.
Average weekly earnings increased 0.4 percent in the 12 months ending in May
2018 and increased 0.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2018. Average
weekly earnings increased 0.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2018.
Average weekly earnings increased 1.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug
2018. Average weekly earnings increased 2.9 percent in the 12 months ending in
Sep 2018 and decreased 1.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2018. Average
weekly earnings increased 1.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2018.
Average weekly earnings increased 3.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec
2018. Average weekly earnings increased 1.9 percent in the 12 months ending in
Jan 2019 and increased 1.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2019. Average
weekly earnings increased 1.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2019.
Average weekly earnings decreased 0.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr
2019. Average weekly earnings increased 1.2 percent in the 12 months ending in
May 2019 and increased 3.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2019. Average
weekly earnings decreased 0.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2019.
Average weekly earnings increased 1.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug
2019 and increased 1.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2019. Average
weekly earnings increased 1.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2019.
Average weekly earnings increased 0.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov
2019. Average weekly earnings increased 0.1 percent in the 12 months ending in
Dec 2019. Average weekly earnings decreased 0.1 percent in the 12 months ending
in Jan 2020. Average weekly earnings increased 2.2 percent in the 12 months
ending in Feb 2020. Average weekly earnings increased 2.3 percent in the 12
months ending in Mar 2020. Average weekly earnings increased 7.0 percent in the
12 months ending in Apr 2020. Average weekly earnings increased 7.4 percent in
the 12 months ending in May 2020.
Average weekly earnings increased 2.7 percent in the 12 months ending in
Jun 2020. Average weekly earnings increased 4.3 percent in the 12 months ending
in Jul 2020. Table I-5 confirms the trend of deterioration of purchasing power
of average weekly earnings in 2011 and into 2013 with oscillations according to
carry trades causing world inflation waves (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/07/contraction-of-household-wealth-by-14.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/06/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html). On an annual basis, average
weekly earnings in constant 1982-1984 dollars increased from $347.13 in 2007 to
$354.10 in 2013, by 2.0 percent or at the average rate of 0.3 percent per year
(data in http://www.bls.gov/data/). Annual average weekly earnings
in constant dollars of $352.92 in 2010 fell 0.4 percent to $351.54 in 2011.
Annual average weekly earnings increased from $347.13 in 2007 to $356.85 in
2014 or by 2.8 at the average rate of 0.4 percent. Annual average weekly
earnings in constant dollars increased from $347.13 in 2007 to $364.56 in 2015 by
5.0 percent at the average rate of 0.6 percent per year. Annual average
weekly earnings in constant dollar increased from $347.13 in 2007 to $367.11 in
2016 by 5.8 percent at the average rate of 0.6 percent per year. Average weekly
earnings in constant dollars increased from $347.13 in 2007 to $369.69 in 2017
by 6.5 percent at the average rate of 0.6 percent per year. Average weekly
earnings in constant dollars increased from $347.13 in 2007 to $372.90 in 2018
by 7.4 percent at the average rate of 0.7 percent per year. Average weekly
earnings in constant dollars increased from $347.13 in 2007 to $376.71 in 2019
by 8.5 percent at the average rate of 0.7 percent per year. Those who still
work bring back home a paycheck that buys fewer high-quality goods than a year
earlier. The
fractured US job market does not provide an opportunity for advancement as in
past booms following recessions because of poor job creation with 34.8 million
unemployed or underemployed (Section I and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/thirty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html) because of mediocre
economic growth (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/d-ollar-devaluation-and-yuan.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/contraction-of-united-states-gdp-at-32_57.html).The BLS is revising the
data from 2006 to 2009 (http://www.bls.gov/ces/#notices) now available for the
release of Jan 2016 and subsequent releases.
Table IB-5, US,
Average Weekly Earnings of All Employees in Constant Dollars of 1982-1984, NSA
2006-2020
|
Year |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Dec |
|
2006 |
337.80 |
339.76 |
345.81 |
351.16 |
|
2007 |
342.59 |
343.92 |
349.84 |
352.91 |
|
2008 |
337.84 |
341.61 |
334.32 |
354.11 |
|
2009 |
346.28 |
342.95 |
345.30 |
350.29 |
|
2010 |
356.33 |
349.50 |
351.55 |
355.14 |
|
2011 |
353.10 |
346.61 |
349.30 |
353.80 |
|
2012 |
347.04 |
348.68 |
355.63 |
361.49 |
|
∆%12M |
-1.7 |
0.6 |
1.8 |
2.2 |
|
2013 |
350.30 |
357.51 |
349.47 |
361.82 |
|
∆%12M |
0.9 |
2.5 |
-1.7 |
0.1 |
|
2014 |
351.37 |
357.58 |
351.88 |
362.19 |
|
∆%12M |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.7 |
0.1 |
|
2015 |
359.90 |
357.96 |
358.95 |
367.57 |
|
∆%12M |
2.4 |
0.1 |
2.0 |
1.5 |
|
2016 |
369.72 |
362.67 |
364.83 |
367.53 |
|
∆%12M |
2.7 |
1.3 |
1.6 |
0.0 |
|
2017 |
366.22 |
365.55 |
374.60 |
371.98 |
|
∆%12M |
-0.9 |
0.8 |
2.7 |
1.2 |
|
2018 |
367.81 |
367.85 |
375.30 |
384.65 |
|
∆%12M |
0.4 |
0.6 |
0.2 |
3.4 |
|
2019 |
372.07 |
380.14 |
372.58 |
384.98 |
|
∆%12M |
1.2 |
3.3 |
-0.7 |
0.1 |
|
2020 |
399.58 |
390.30 |
388.67 |
|
|
∆%12M |
7.4 |
2.7 |
4.3 |
Source: US
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Chart IB-4 provides average
weekly earnings in constant dollars of 1982-1984 from 2006 to 2020. The same
pattern emerges of sharp decline during the contraction, followed by recovery
in the expansion and continuing fall with oscillations caused by carry trades
from zero interest rates into commodity futures from 2010 to 2011 and into
2012-2019. The increase in the final segment is mostly because of collapse of
commodity prices in reversals of carry trade exposures followed by reversal of
carry trades and new decreases/stability. The BLS is revising the data from
2006 to 2009 (http://www.bls.gov/ces/#notices) available for the release of
Jan 2016 and subsequent releases.
Chart IB-4, US, Average Weekly Earnings of All Employees in
Constant Dollars of 1982-1984, SA 2006-2020
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/data
Chart IB-5 provides 12-month percentage
changes of average weekly earnings of all employees in the US in constant
dollars of 1982-1984. The BLS is revising the data from 2006 to 2009 (https://www.bls.gov/ces/#notices) available for the release of Jan 2016 and subsequent releases.
There is the same pattern of contraction during the global recession in 2008
and then again weakness in the recovery without hiring and inflation waves https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/d-ollar-devaluation-and-yuan.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/07/contraction-of-household-wealth-by-14.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/06/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/06/recovery-in-jun-2020-of-manufacturing.html)
Chart IB-5, US, Average Weekly Earnings of All Employees NSA
in Constant Dollars of 1982-1984 12-Month Percent Change, NSA 2007-2020
Source: US
Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/data
© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009,
2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020.
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