New Nonfarm Hires of 6.343 Million in Jul 2020, New 2.421 Million Full-Time Jobs Created in August 2020, Recovery Without Hiring in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth Underperforming Below Trend Worldwide, Fifteen Million Fewer Full-Time Jobs In the Global Recession, with Output in the US Reaching a High in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the Lockdown of Economic Activity in the COVID-19 Event, Youth and Middle-Age Unemployment, United States Inflation, World Cyclical Slow Growth, and Government Intervention in Globalization: Part II
Carlos M. Pelaez
© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009,
2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020.
IA1 Hiring Collapse
IA2 Labor Underutilization
ICA3 Fifteen Million Fewer Full-time
Jobs
IA4 Theory and Reality of Cyclical Slow
Growth Not Secular Stagnation: Youth and Middle-Age Unemployment
IC United
States Inflation
IC Long-term US Inflation
ID Current US Inflation
III World Financial Turbulence
IV Global Inflation
V World Economic
Slowdown
VA United States
VB Japan
VC China
VD Euro Area
VE Germany
VF France
VG Italy
VH United Kingdom
VI Valuation of Risk
Financial Assets
VII Economic Indicators
VIII Interest Rates
IX Conclusion
References
Appendixes
Appendix I The Great Inflation
IIIB Appendix on Safe
Haven Currencies
IIIC Appendix on
Fiscal Compact
IIID Appendix on
European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort
IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the
Debt Crisis
IA2 Labor Underutilization.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics also provides alternative measures of labor
underutilization shown in Table I-7. The most comprehensive measure is U6 that
consists of total unemployed plus total employed part time for economic reasons
plus all marginally attached workers as percent of the labor force. U6 not
seasonally adjusted has moved from 8.2 percent in 2006 to 8.9 percent in Mar
2020, 22.4
percent in Apr 2020 and 20.7 percent in May 2020 in in
the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. U6 NSA decreased to 18.3 in
Jun 2020, 16.8 in Jul 2020 and 14.3 in Aug 2020.
Table I-7, US,
Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization NSA %
|
|
U1 |
U2 |
U3 |
U4 |
U5 |
U6 |
|
2020 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug |
5.0 |
6.4 |
8.5 |
8.8 |
9.7 |
14.3 |
|
Jul |
4.9 |
8.1 |
10.5 |
10.8 |
11.6 |
16.8 |
|
Jun |
2.0 |
8.8 |
11.2 |
11.6 |
12.6 |
18.3 |
|
May |
1.4 |
11.3 |
13.0 |
13.3 |
14.2 |
20.7 |
|
Apr |
1.2 |
13.1 |
14.4 |
14.8 |
15.6 |
22.4 |
|
Mar |
1.4 |
2.7 |
4.5 |
4.8 |
5.3 |
8.9 |
|
Feb |
1.3 |
1.9 |
3.8 |
4.0 |
4.7 |
7.4 |
|
Jan |
1.3 |
2.0 |
4.0 |
4.2 |
4.8 |
7.7 |
|
2019 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec |
1.1 |
1.7 |
3.4 |
3.5 |
4.1 |
6.7 |
|
Nov |
1.2 |
1.6 |
3.3 |
3.5 |
4.0 |
6.5 |
|
Oct |
1.3 |
1.4 |
3.3 |
3.5 |
4.1 |
6.5 |
|
Sep |
1.3 |
1.4 |
3.3 |
3.5 |
4.1 |
6.5 |
|
Aug |
1.2 |
1.8 |
3.8 |
4.1 |
4.7 |
7.3 |
|
Jul |
1.2 |
1.8 |
4.0 |
4.2 |
4.8 |
7.3 |
|
Jun |
1.2 |
1.6 |
3.8 |
4.1 |
4.7 |
7.5 |
|
May |
1.3 |
1.4 |
3.4 |
3.6 |
4.2 |
6.7 |
|
Apr |
1.4 |
1.5 |
3.3 |
3.6 |
4.2 |
6.9 |
|
Mar |
1.5 |
1.9 |
3.9 |
4.2 |
4.7 |
7.5 |
|
Feb |
1.5 |
2.0 |
4.1 |
4.3 |
4.9 |
7.7 |
|
Jan |
1.4 |
2.3 |
4.4 |
4.7 |
5.3 |
8.8 |
|
2018 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec |
1.3 |
1.8 |
3.7 |
3.9 |
4.6 |
7.5 |
|
Nov |
1.2 |
1.6 |
3.5 |
3.7 |
4.5 |
7.2 |
|
Oct |
1.3 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
3.8 |
4.4 |
7.0 |
|
Sep |
1.3 |
1.5 |
3.6 |
3.8 |
4.5 |
7.1 |
|
Aug |
1.3 |
1.8 |
3.9 |
4.2 |
4.8 |
7.4 |
|
Jul |
1.4 |
1.9 |
4.1 |
4.4 |
5.0 |
7.9 |
|
Jun |
1.3 |
1.9 |
4.2 |
4.4 |
5.0 |
8.1 |
|
May |
1.4 |
1.5 |
3.6 |
3.8 |
4.4 |
7.3 |
|
Apr |
1.5 |
1.7 |
3.7 |
3.9 |
4.5 |
7.4 |
|
Mar |
1.5 |
2.1 |
4.1 |
4.4 |
5.0 |
8.1 |
|
Feb |
1.6 |
2.3 |
4.4 |
4.6 |
5.3 |
8.6 |
|
Jan |
1.5 |
2.4 |
4.5 |
4.8 |
5.5 |
8.9 |
|
2017 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec |
1.4 |
2.1 |
3.9 |
4.2 |
4.9 |
8.0 |
|
Nov |
1.5 |
1.8 |
3.9 |
4.2 |
4.8 |
7.7 |
|
Oct |
1.5 |
1.8 |
3.9 |
4.2 |
4.8 |
7.6 |
|
Sep |
1.6 |
1.9 |
4.1 |
4.3 |
5.0 |
8.0 |
|
Aug |
1.7 |
2.2 |
4.5 |
4.8 |
5.4 |
8.6 |
|
Jul |
1.6 |
2.2 |
4.6 |
4.9 |
5.5 |
8.9 |
|
Jun |
1.5 |
2.1 |
4.5 |
4.8 |
5.4 |
8.9 |
|
May |
1.8 |
1.9 |
4.1 |
4.3 |
5.0 |
8.1 |
|
Apr |
1.8 |
2.1 |
4.1 |
4.4 |
5.0 |
8.1 |
|
Mar |
1.9 |
2.4 |
4.6 |
4.8 |
5.5 |
8.9 |
|
Feb |
1.9 |
2.6 |
4.9 |
5.3 |
6.0 |
9.5 |
|
Jan |
2.0 |
2.7 |
5.1 |
5.5 |
6.2 |
10.1 |
|
2016 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec |
1.9 |
2.3 |
4.5 |
4.8 |
5.5 |
9.1 |
|
Nov |
1.8 |
2.1 |
4.4 |
4.8 |
5.6 |
9.0 |
|
Oct |
1.9 |
2.1 |
4.7 |
5.0 |
5.7 |
9.2 |
|
Sep |
1.9 |
2.2 |
4.8 |
5.1 |
5.9 |
9.3 |
|
Aug |
1.8 |
2.4 |
5.0 |
5.3 |
6.0 |
9.7 |
|
Jul |
1.9 |
2.4 |
5.1 |
5.5 |
6.3 |
10.1 |
|
Jun |
1.9 |
2.3 |
5.1 |
5.4 |
6.1 |
9.9 |
|
May |
2.0 |
2.1 |
4.5 |
4.9 |
5.6 |
9.4 |
|
Apr |
2.2 |
2.3 |
4.7 |
5.0 |
5.7 |
9.3 |
|
Mar |
2.3 |
2.6 |
5.1 |
5.5 |
6.1 |
9.9 |
|
Feb |
2.2 |
2.7 |
5.2 |
5.6 |
6.3 |
10.1 |
|
Jan |
2.1 |
2.7 |
5.3 |
5.7 |
6.5 |
10.5 |
|
2015 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec |
2.1 |
2.4 |
4.8 |
5.2 |
5.9 |
9.8 |
|
Nov |
2.1 |
2.3 |
4.8 |
5.2 |
5.8 |
9.6 |
|
Oct |
2.1 |
2.3 |
4.8 |
5.2 |
6.0 |
9.5 |
|
Sep |
2.0 |
2.2 |
4.9 |
5.3 |
6.0 |
9.6 |
|
Aug |
2.1 |
2.5 |
5.2 |
5.6 |
6.3 |
10.3 |
|
Jul |
2.0 |
2.7 |
5.6 |
6.0 |
6.7 |
10.7 |
|
Jun |
2.1 |
2.5 |
5.5 |
5.8 |
6.6 |
10.8 |
|
May |
2.4 |
2.5 |
5.3 |
5.6 |
6.4 |
10.4 |
|
Apr |
2.4 |
2.5 |
5.1 |
5.5 |
6.4 |
10.4 |
|
Mar |
2.6 |
2.9 |
5.6 |
6.0 |
6.8 |
11.0 |
|
Feb |
2.7 |
3.0 |
5.8 |
6.3 |
7.1 |
11.4 |
|
Jan |
2.7 |
3.1 |
6.1 |
6.5 |
7.4 |
12.0 |
|
2014 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec |
2.5 |
2.8 |
5.4 |
5.8 |
6.7 |
11.1 |
|
Nov |
2.7 |
2.7 |
5.5 |
5.9 |
6.8 |
11.0 |
|
Oct |
2.7 |
2.6 |
5.5 |
6.0 |
6.8 |
11.1 |
|
Sep |
2.7 |
2.7 |
5.7 |
6.2 |
7.1 |
11.3 |
|
Aug |
2.8 |
3.0 |
6.3 |
6.7 |
7.5 |
12.0 |
|
Jul |
2.8 |
3.1 |
6.5 |
7.0 |
7.8 |
12.6 |
|
Jun |
2.8 |
3.0 |
6.3 |
6.7 |
7.5 |
12.4 |
|
May |
3.1 |
3.0 |
6.1 |
6.5 |
7.3 |
11.7 |
|
Apr |
3.3 |
3.2 |
5.9 |
6.3 |
7.2 |
11.8 |
|
Mar |
3.7 |
3.7 |
6.8 |
7.2 |
8.1 |
12.8 |
|
Feb |
3.6 |
3.9 |
7.0 |
7.5 |
8.4 |
13.1 |
|
Jan |
3.5 |
4.0 |
7.0 |
7.5 |
8.6 |
13.5 |
|
2013 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec |
3.5 |
3.5 |
6.5 |
7.0 |
7.9 |
13.0 |
|
Nov |
3.7 |
3.5 |
6.6 |
7.1 |
7.9 |
12.7 |
|
Oct |
3.7 |
3.6 |
7.0 |
7.4 |
8.3 |
13.2 |
|
Sep |
3.7 |
3.5 |
7.0 |
7.5 |
8.4 |
13.1 |
|
Aug |
3.7 |
3.8 |
7.3 |
7.9 |
8.7 |
13.6 |
|
Jul |
3.7 |
3.8 |
7.7 |
8.3 |
9.1 |
14.3 |
|
Jun |
3.9 |
3.8 |
7.8 |
8.4 |
9.3 |
14.6 |
|
May |
4.1 |
3.7 |
7.3 |
7.7 |
8.5 |
13.4 |
|
Apr |
4.3 |
3.9 |
7.1 |
7.6 |
8.5 |
13.4 |
|
Mar |
4.3 |
4.3 |
7.6 |
8.1 |
9.0 |
13.9 |
|
Feb |
4.3 |
4.6 |
8.1 |
8.6 |
9.6 |
14.9 |
|
Jan |
4.3 |
4.9 |
8.5 |
9.0 |
9.9 |
15.4 |
|
2012 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec |
4.2 |
4.3 |
7.6 |
8.3 |
9.2 |
14.4 |
|
Nov |
4.2 |
3.9 |
7.4 |
7.9 |
8.8 |
13.9 |
|
Oct |
4.3 |
3.9 |
7.5 |
8.0 |
9.0 |
13.9 |
|
Sep |
4.2 |
4.0 |
7.6 |
8.0 |
9.0 |
14.2 |
|
Aug |
4.3 |
4.4 |
8.2 |
8.7 |
9.7 |
14.6 |
|
Jul |
4.3 |
4.6 |
8.6 |
9.1 |
10.0 |
15.2 |
|
Jun |
4.5 |
4.4 |
8.4 |
8.9 |
9.9 |
15.1 |
|
May |
4.7 |
4.3 |
7.9 |
8.4 |
9.3 |
14.3 |
|
Apr |
4.8 |
4.3 |
7.7 |
8.3 |
9.1 |
14.1 |
|
Mar |
4.9 |
4.8 |
8.4 |
8.9 |
9.7 |
14.8 |
|
Feb |
4.9 |
5.1 |
8.7 |
9.3 |
10.2 |
15.6 |
|
Jan |
4.9 |
5.4 |
8.8 |
9.4 |
10.5 |
16.2 |
|
2011 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec |
4.8 |
5.0 |
8.3 |
8.8 |
9.8 |
15.2 |
|
Nov |
4.9 |
4.7 |
8.2 |
8.9 |
9.7 |
15.0 |
|
Oct |
5.0 |
4.8 |
8.5 |
9.1 |
10.0 |
15.3 |
|
Sep |
5.2 |
5.0 |
8.8 |
9.4 |
10.2 |
15.7 |
|
Aug |
5.2 |
5.1 |
9.1 |
9.6 |
10.6 |
16.1 |
|
Jul |
5.2 |
5.2 |
9.3 |
10.0 |
10.9 |
16.3 |
|
Jun |
5.1 |
5.1 |
9.3 |
9.9 |
10.9 |
16.4 |
|
May |
5.5 |
5.1 |
8.7 |
9.2 |
10.0 |
15.4 |
|
Apr |
5.5 |
5.2 |
8.7 |
9.2 |
10.1 |
15.5 |
|
Mar |
5.7 |
5.8 |
9.2 |
9.7 |
10.6 |
16.2 |
|
Feb |
5.6 |
6.0 |
9.5 |
10.1 |
11.1 |
16.7 |
|
Jan |
5.6 |
6.2 |
9.8 |
10.4 |
11.4 |
17.3 |
|
Dec 2010 |
5.4 |
5.9 |
9.1 |
9.9 |
10.7 |
16.6 |
|
Annual |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2019 |
1.3 |
1.7 |
3.7 |
3.9 |
4.5 |
7.2 |
|
2018 |
1.4 |
1.8 |
3.9 |
4.1 |
4.8 |
7.7 |
|
2017 |
1.7 |
2.1 |
4.4 |
4.6 |
5.3 |
8.5 |
|
2016 |
2.0 |
2.3 |
4.9 |
5.2 |
5.9 |
9.6 |
|
2015 |
2.3 |
2.6 |
5.3 |
5.7 |
6.4 |
10.4 |
|
2014 |
3.0 |
3.1 |
6.2 |
6.6 |
7.5 |
12.0 |
|
2013 |
3.9 |
3.9 |
7.4 |
7.9 |
8.8 |
13.8 |
|
2012 |
4.5 |
4.4 |
8.1 |
8.6 |
9.5 |
14.7 |
|
2011 |
5.3 |
5.3 |
8.9 |
9.5 |
10.4 |
15.9 |
|
2010 |
5.7 |
6.0 |
9.6 |
10.3 |
11.1 |
16.7 |
|
2009 |
4.7 |
5.9 |
9.3 |
9.7 |
10.5 |
16.2 |
|
2008 |
2.1 |
3.1 |
5.8 |
6.1 |
6.8 |
10.5 |
|
2007 |
1.5 |
2.3 |
4.6 |
4.9 |
5.5 |
8.3 |
|
2006 |
1.5 |
2.2 |
4.6 |
4.9 |
5.5 |
8.2 |
|
2005 |
1.8 |
2.5 |
5.1 |
5.4 |
6.1 |
8.9 |
|
2004 |
2.1 |
2.8 |
5.5 |
5.8 |
6.5 |
9.6 |
|
2003 |
2.3 |
3.3 |
6.0 |
6.3 |
7.0 |
10.1 |
|
2002 |
2.0 |
3.2 |
5.8 |
6.0 |
6.7 |
9.6 |
|
2001 |
1.2 |
2.4 |
4.7 |
4.9 |
5.6 |
8.1 |
|
2000 |
0.9 |
1.8 |
4.0 |
4.2 |
4.8 |
7.0 |
Note: LF: labor
force; U1, persons unemployed 15 weeks % LF; U2, job losers and persons who
completed temporary jobs %LF; U3, total unemployed % LF; U4, total unemployed
plus discouraged workers, plus all other marginally attached workers; % LF plus
discouraged workers; U5, total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all
other marginally attached workers % LF plus all marginally attached workers;
U6, total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed
part time for economic reasons % LF plus all marginally attached workers
Source: US
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Monthly seasonally adjusted measures of
labor underutilization are provided in Table I-8. U6 climbed from 16.1 percent
in Aug 2011 to 16.4 percent in Sep 2011 and then fell to 14.6 percent in Mar
2012, reaching 8.7 percent in Mar 2020, 22.8 percent in Apr 2020 and 21.2
percent in May 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching
a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Unemployment is an incomplete measure
of the stress in US job markets. U6 SA decreased to 18.0 in Jun 2020, 16.5 in
Jul 2020 and 14.2 in Aug 2020. A different calculation in this blog is provided
by using the participation rate in the labor force before the global recession.
This calculation shows 34.8 million in job stress of
unemployment/underemployment in Jun 2020, not seasonally adjusted,
corresponding to 20.2 percent of the labor force (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/09/exchange-rate-fluctuations-1.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/thirty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html).
Table I-8, US,
Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization SA %
|
|
U1 |
U2 |
U3 |
U4 |
U5 |
U6 |
|
Aug 2020 |
5.1 |
6.4 |
8.4 |
8.7 |
9.6 |
14.2 |
|
Jul |
5.0 |
8.1 |
10.2 |
10.6 |
11.3 |
16.5 |
|
Jun |
2.1 |
8.9 |
11.1 |
11.5 |
12.5 |
18.0 |
|
May |
1.4 |
11.6 |
13.3 |
13.6 |
14.6 |
21.2 |
|
Apr |
1.1 |
13.2 |
14.7 |
15.1 |
16.0 |
22.8 |
|
Mar |
1.2 |
2.4 |
4.4 |
4.7 |
5.2 |
8.7 |
|
Feb |
1.2 |
1.7 |
3.5 |
3.8 |
4.4 |
7.0 |
|
Jan |
1.2 |
1.6 |
3.6 |
3.8 |
4.4 |
6.9 |
|
Dec 2019 |
1.2 |
1.6 |
3.5 |
3.7 |
4.2 |
6.7 |
|
Nov |
1.3 |
1.7 |
3.5 |
3.7 |
4.3 |
6.8 |
|
Oct |
1.3 |
1.6 |
3.6 |
3.8 |
4.3 |
6.9 |
|
Sep |
1.3 |
1.6 |
3.5 |
3.7 |
4.3 |
6.9 |
|
Aug |
1.3 |
1.7 |
3.7 |
3.9 |
4.6 |
7.2 |
|
Jul |
1.3 |
1.7 |
3.7 |
3.9 |
4.5 |
6.9 |
|
Jun |
1.3 |
1.7 |
3.7 |
3.9 |
4.6 |
7.2 |
|
May |
1.3 |
1.6 |
3.6 |
3.9 |
4.5 |
7.2 |
|
Apr |
1.3 |
1.6 |
3.6 |
3.9 |
4.5 |
7.3 |
|
Mar |
1.4 |
1.7 |
3.8 |
4.0 |
4.6 |
7.4 |
|
Feb |
1.4 |
1.8 |
3.8 |
4.0 |
4.6 |
7.2 |
|
Jan |
1.3 |
1.9 |
4.0 |
4.2 |
4.9 |
8.0 |
|
Dec 2018 |
1.4 |
1.8 |
3.9 |
4.1 |
4.7 |
7.6 |
|
Nov |
1.3 |
1.8 |
3.7 |
4.0 |
4.7 |
7.6 |
|
Oct |
1.4 |
1.8 |
3.8 |
4.1 |
4.7 |
7.5 |
|
Sep |
1.4 |
1.8 |
3.7 |
4.0 |
4.7 |
7.5 |
|
Aug |
1.4 |
1.8 |
3.8 |
4.1 |
4.7 |
7.3 |
|
Jul |
1.5 |
1.8 |
3.8 |
4.1 |
4.7 |
7.5 |
|
Jun |
1.4 |
1.9 |
4.0 |
4.2 |
4.9 |
7.8 |
|
May |
1.4 |
1.8 |
3.8 |
4.1 |
4.7 |
7.8 |
|
Apr |
1.4 |
1.9 |
4.0 |
4.2 |
4.8 |
7.9 |
|
Mar |
1.4 |
1.9 |
4.0 |
4.3 |
4.9 |
8.0 |
|
Feb |
1.4 |
2.0 |
4.1 |
4.3 |
5.0 |
8.1 |
|
Jan |
1.5 |
2.0 |
4.1 |
4.3 |
5.0 |
8.0 |
|
Dec 2017 |
1.5 |
2.0 |
4.1 |
4.4 |
5.0 |
8.1 |
|
Nov |
1.6 |
2.0 |
4.2 |
4.4 |
5.0 |
8.0 |
|
Oct |
1.5 |
2.0 |
4.1 |
4.4 |
5.0 |
8.1 |
|
Sep |
1.7 |
2.1 |
4.2 |
4.5 |
5.2 |
8.3 |
|
Aug |
1.7 |
2.2 |
4.4 |
4.7 |
5.3 |
8.5 |
|
Jul |
1.7 |
2.1 |
4.3 |
4.6 |
5.2 |
8.5 |
|
Jun |
1.6 |
2.1 |
4.3 |
4.6 |
5.3 |
8.5 |
|
May |
1.8 |
2.1 |
4.4 |
4.7 |
5.3 |
8.6 |
|
Apr |
1.7 |
2.2 |
4.4 |
4.7 |
5.4 |
8.6 |
|
Mar |
1.7 |
2.2 |
4.4 |
4.7 |
5.4 |
8.8 |
|
Feb |
1.8 |
2.3 |
4.6 |
4.9 |
5.6 |
9.1 |
|
Jan |
1.9 |
2.3 |
4.7 |
5.0 |
5.7 |
9.2 |
|
Dec 2016 |
1.9 |
2.3 |
4.7 |
4.9 |
5.7 |
9.2 |
|
Nov |
1.9 |
2.2 |
4.7 |
5.0 |
5.8 |
9.4 |
|
Oct |
2.0 |
2.4 |
4.9 |
5.2 |
5.9 |
9.6 |
|
Sep |
1.9 |
2.5 |
5.0 |
5.3 |
6.1 |
9.7 |
|
Aug |
1.9 |
2.4 |
4.9 |
5.2 |
5.9 |
9.6 |
|
Jul |
2.0 |
2.3 |
4.8 |
5.1 |
5.9 |
9.6 |
|
Jun |
2.0 |
2.4 |
4.9 |
5.2 |
5.9 |
9.5 |
|
May |
1.9 |
2.3 |
4.8 |
5.2 |
5.9 |
9.9 |
|
Apr |
2.1 |
2.4 |
5.0 |
5.4 |
6.1 |
9.8 |
|
Mar |
2.1 |
2.4 |
5.0 |
5.3 |
6.1 |
9.8 |
|
Feb |
2.1 |
2.4 |
4.9 |
5.2 |
5.9 |
9.6 |
|
Jan |
2.0 |
2.3 |
4.9 |
5.2 |
6.0 |
9.7 |
|
Dec 2015 |
2.1 |
2.4 |
5.0 |
5.4 |
6.1 |
9.9 |
|
Nov |
2.1 |
2.5 |
5.1 |
5.4 |
6.1 |
10.0 |
|
Oct |
2.1 |
2.5 |
5.0 |
5.4 |
6.2 |
9.8 |
|
Sep |
2.1 |
2.5 |
5.0 |
5.4 |
6.2 |
10.0 |
|
Aug |
2.2 |
2.5 |
5.1 |
5.5 |
6.2 |
10.2 |
|
Jul |
2.2 |
2.6 |
5.2 |
5.6 |
6.3 |
10.3 |
|
Jun |
2.3 |
2.6 |
5.3 |
5.6 |
6.4 |
10.4 |
|
May |
2.4 |
2.8 |
5.6 |
6.0 |
6.8 |
10.9 |
|
Apr |
2.3 |
2.6 |
5.4 |
5.9 |
6.7 |
10.9 |
|
Mar |
2.4 |
2.6 |
5.4 |
5.9 |
6.7 |
10.9 |
|
Feb |
2.5 |
2.7 |
5.5 |
5.9 |
6.7 |
10.9 |
|
Jan |
2.6 |
2.7 |
5.7 |
6.1 |
6.9 |
11.2 |
|
Dec 2014 |
2.6 |
2.8 |
5.6 |
6.0 |
6.9 |
11.2 |
|
Nov |
2.7 |
2.9 |
5.8 |
6.2 |
7.1 |
11.4 |
|
Oct |
2.7 |
2.8 |
5.7 |
6.2 |
7.1 |
11.5 |
|
Sep |
2.8 |
2.9 |
5.9 |
6.4 |
7.2 |
11.7 |
|
Aug |
2.9 |
3.0 |
6.1 |
6.6 |
7.4 |
12.0 |
|
July |
3.0 |
3.1 |
6.2 |
6.6 |
7.4 |
12.1 |
|
Jun |
3.0 |
3.1 |
6.1 |
6.5 |
7.3 |
12.0 |
|
May |
3.1 |
3.2 |
6.3 |
6.8 |
7.7 |
12.3 |
|
Apr |
3.2 |
3.3 |
6.2 |
6.7 |
7.6 |
12.3 |
|
Mar |
3.5 |
3.4 |
6.7 |
7.1 |
8.0 |
12.7 |
|
Feb |
3.5 |
3.5 |
6.7 |
7.1 |
8.0 |
12.6 |
|
Jan |
3.4 |
3.4 |
6.6 |
7.0 |
8.0 |
12.6 |
|
Dec 2013 |
3.6 |
3.5 |
6.7 |
7.2 |
8.1 |
13.1 |
|
Nov |
3.7 |
3.7 |
6.9 |
7.4 |
8.2 |
13.1 |
|
Oct |
3.7 |
4.0 |
7.2 |
7.7 |
8.6 |
13.6 |
|
Sep |
3.8 |
3.8 |
7.2 |
7.8 |
8.6 |
13.5 |
|
Aug |
3.8 |
3.8 |
7.2 |
7.8 |
8.6 |
13.6 |
|
Jul |
3.9 |
3.8 |
7.3 |
7.8 |
8.7 |
13.8 |
|
Jun |
4.0 |
3.9 |
7.5 |
8.2 |
9.1 |
14.2 |
|
May |
4.1 |
3.9 |
7.5 |
8.0 |
8.8 |
13.9 |
|
Apr |
4.1 |
4.1 |
7.6 |
8.1 |
9.0 |
14.0 |
|
Mar |
4.1 |
4.0 |
7.5 |
8.0 |
9.0 |
13.9 |
|
Feb |
4.2 |
4.2 |
7.7 |
8.2 |
9.2 |
14.3 |
|
Jan |
4.2 |
4.3 |
8.0 |
8.5 |
9.3 |
14.5 |
|
Dec 2012 |
4.3 |
4.2 |
7.9 |
8.5 |
9.4 |
14.4 |
|
Nov |
4.2 |
4.2 |
7.7 |
8.3 |
9.2 |
14.4 |
|
Oct |
4.4 |
4.2 |
7.8 |
8.3 |
9.2 |
14.4 |
|
Sep |
4.4 |
4.2 |
7.8 |
8.3 |
9.3 |
14.8 |
|
Aug |
4.5 |
4.4 |
8.1 |
8.6 |
9.6 |
14.6 |
|
Jul |
4.5 |
4.6 |
8.2 |
8.6 |
9.6 |
14.7 |
|
Jun |
4.7 |
4.6 |
8.2 |
8.7 |
9.6 |
14.7 |
|
May |
4.6 |
4.5 |
8.2 |
8.7 |
9.7 |
14.8 |
|
Apr |
4.6 |
4.4 |
8.2 |
8.7 |
9.6 |
14.7 |
|
Mar |
4.6 |
4.5 |
8.2 |
8.7 |
9.6 |
14.6 |
|
Feb |
4.7 |
4.6 |
8.3 |
8.9 |
9.8 |
15.0 |
|
Jan |
4.8 |
4.7 |
8.3 |
8.9 |
9.8 |
15.1 |
|
Dec 2011 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
8.5 |
9.1 |
10.0 |
15.2 |
|
Nov |
5.0 |
5.0 |
8.6 |
9.3 |
10.2 |
15.6 |
|
Oct |
5.1 |
5.1 |
8.8 |
9.4 |
10.3 |
15.8 |
|
Sep |
5.4 |
5.2 |
9.0 |
9.7 |
10.5 |
16.4 |
|
Aug |
5.4 |
5.2 |
9.0 |
9.6 |
10.5 |
16.1 |
|
Jul |
5.3 |
5.3 |
9.0 |
9.6 |
10.6 |
15.9 |
|
Jun |
5.3 |
5.3 |
9.1 |
9.7 |
10.7 |
16.1 |
|
May |
5.3 |
5.4 |
9.0 |
9.6 |
10.4 |
15.9 |
|
Apr |
5.2 |
5.4 |
9.1 |
9.7 |
10.6 |
16.1 |
|
Mar |
5.3 |
5.4 |
9.0 |
9.5 |
10.4 |
16.0 |
|
Feb |
5.3 |
5.5 |
9.0 |
9.6 |
10.6 |
16.0 |
|
Jan |
5.5 |
5.5 |
9.1 |
9.7 |
10.6 |
16.1 |
Note: LF: labor
force; U1, persons unemployed 15 weeks % LF; U2, job losers and persons who
completed temporary jobs %LF; U3, total unemployed % LF; U4, total unemployed
plus discouraged workers, plus all other marginally attached workers; % LF plus
discouraged workers; U5, total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all
other marginally attached workers % LF plus all marginally attached workers;
U6, total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed
part time for economic reasons % LF plus all marginally attached workers
Source: US
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Chart I-16
provides U6 monthly from 2001 to 2020. There was steep climb from 2007 into
2009 and then this measure of unemployment and underemployment stabilized at
that high level but declined into 2012. The low of U6 SA was 8.0 percent in Mar
2007 and the peak was 17.1 percent in Apr 2010. The low NSA was 7.6 percent in
Oct 2006 and the peak was 18.0 percent in Jan 2010. The rate of U6 jumped to
22.8 percent in Apr 2020 and 21.2 in May 2020 in the global recession, with
output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. U6 SA decreased to 18.0 percent in
Jun 2020, 6.5 percent in Jul 2020 and 14.2 in Aug 2020.
Chart I-16, US, U6, total unemployed, plus all marginally
attached workers, plus total employed Part-Time for Economic Reasons, Month,
SA, 2001-2020
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Chart
I-17 provides the number employed part-time for economic reasons or who cannot
find full-time employment. There are sharp declines at the end of 2009, 2010
and 2011 but an increase in 2012 followed by relative decline into 2018-2020
and recent increase/stability. The number employed part-time for economic
reasons jumped to 10.887 million SA in Apr 2020 and 10.633 million in May 2020
and 10.684 million NSA in Apr 2020 and 10.429 million in May 2020 in
the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The number employed part-time for
economic reasons reached 7.572 million SA in Aug 2020 and 7.488 million NSA.
Chart I-17, US, Working Part-time for Economic Reasons
Thousands, Month SA 2001-2020
Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
ICA3 Fifteen Million Fewer Full-time Jobs. There is strong
seasonality in US labor markets around the end of the year.
- Seasonally adjusted
part-time for economic reasons. The number employed part-time for economic
reasons because they could not find full-time employment fell from 9.166
million in Sep 2011 to 7.775 million in Mar 2012, seasonally adjusted, or
decline of 1.391 million in six months, as shown in Table I-9. The number employed part-time for
economic reasons rebounded to 8.671 million in Sep 2012 for increase of
697,000 in one month from Aug to Sep 2012.
The number employed part-time for economic reasons declined to
8.203 million in Oct 2012 or by 468,000 again in one month, further
declining to 8.166 million in Nov 2012 for another major one-month decline
of 37,000 and 7.943 million in Dec 2012 or fewer 223,000 in just one
month. The number employed part-time for economic reasons increased to
8.151 million in Jan 2013 or 208,000 more than in Dec 2012 and to 8.178
million in Feb 2013, declining to 7.937 million in May 2013 but increasing
to 8.103 million in Jun 2013. The number employed part-time for economic
reasons fell to 7.816 million in Aug 2013 for decline of 283,000 in one month
from 8.099 million in Jul 2013. The number employed part-time for economic
reasons decreased 52,000 from 7.816 million in Aug 2013 to 7.764 million
in Sep 2013. The number part-time for economic reasons rose to 7.936
million in Oct 2013, falling by 218,000 to 7.718 million in Nov 2013. The
number part-time for economic reasons increased to 7.827 million in Dec
2013, decreasing to 7.296 million in Jan 2014. The number employed
part-time for economic reasons increased from 7.296 million in Jan 2014 to
7.299 million in Feb 2014. The number employed part-time for economic
reasons increased to 7.435 million in Mar 2014 and 7.509 million in Apr
2014. The number employed part-time for economic reasons fell to 7.254
million in May 2014, increasing to 7.422 million in Jun 2014. The level
employed part-time for economic reasons fell to 7.402 million in Jul 2014
and 7.177 million in Aug 2014. The level employed part-time for economic
reasons fell to 7.020 million in Sep 2014, 7.025 million in Oct 2014 and
6.898 million in Nov 2014. The level employed part-time for economic
reasons fell to 6.856 million in Dec 2014, decreasing to 6.808 million in
Jan 2015. The level employed part-time for economic reasons fell to 6.665
million in Feb 2015, decreasing to 6.633 million in Mar 2015. The level of
employed part-time for economic reasons fell to 6.611 million in Apr 2015,
increasing to 6.634 million in May 2015. The level employed part-time for
economic reasons fell to 6.388 million in Jun 2015 and 6.253 million in
Jul 2015. The level employed part-time for economic reasons increased to
6.418 million in Aug 2015, declining to 6.042 million in Sep 2015. The
level employed part-time for economic reasons fell to 5.813 million in Oct
2015, increasing to 6.170 million in Nov 2015. The level of part-time for
economic reasons fell to 6.075 million in Dec 2015, decreasing to 5.934
million in Jan 2016. The level employed part-time for economic reasons
decreased to 5.967 million in Feb 2016 and increased to 6.070 million in
Mar 2016. The level employed part-time for economic reasons fell to 6.014
million in Apr 2016 and increased to 6.480 million in May 2016. The level
of part-time for economic reasons fell to 5.759 million in Jun 2016,
increasing to 5.937 million in Jul 2016. The level of part-time for
economic reasons increased to 5.986 million in Aug 2016, decreasing to
5.917 million in Sep 2016. The level of part-time for economic reasons
reached 5.965 million in Oct 2016, decreasing to 5.728 million in Nov 2016
and 5.618 million in Dec 2016. The level of part-time for economic reasons
increased to 5.734 million in Jan 2017, decreasing to 5.585 million in Feb
2017. The level of part-time for economic reasons fell to 5.463 million in
Mar 2017 and fell to 5.293 million in Apr 2017, decreasing to 5.257
million in May 2017. The level of part-time for economic reasons increased
to 5.283 million in Jun 2017, increasing to 5.301 million in Jul 2017 and
5.225 million in Aug 2017. The level of part-time for economic reasons
fell to 5.177 million in Sep 2017, decreasing to 4.895 million in Oct 2017
and decreasing to 4.848 million in Nov 2017. The level of part-time for
economic reasons increased to 4.985 million in Dec 2017, decreasing to
4.951 million in Jan 2018 and increasing to 5.097 million in Feb 2018. The
level of part-time for economic reasons fell to 4.981 million in Mar 2018,
decreasing to 4.969 million in Apr 2018. The level of part-time for
economic reasons eased to 4.952 million in May 2018 and to 4.762 million
in Jun 2018. The level of part-time for economic reasons decreased to
4.619 million in Jul 2018, decreasing to 4.356 million in Aug 2018. The
level of part-time for economic reasons increased to 4.654 million in Sep
2018, decreasing to 4.599 million in Oct 2018. The level of part-time for
economic reasons increased to 4.754 million in Nov 2018, decreasing to
4.655 million in Dec 2018. The level of part-time for economic reasons
increased to 5.105 million in Jan 2019, decreasing to 4.302 million in Feb
2019. The level of part-time for economic reasons increased to 4.517
million in Mar 2019, increasing to 4.706 million in Apr 2019. The level of
part-time for economic reasons decreased to 4.375 million in May 2019,
decreasing to 4.350 million in Jun 2019. The level part-time for economic
reasons fell to 3.973 million in Jul 2019, increasing to 4.381 million in
Aug 2019. The level part-time for economic reasons decreased to 4.336
million in Sep 2019 and increased to 4.397 million in Oct 2019. The level
of part-time for economic reasons decreased to 4.288 million in Nov 2019
and decreased to 4.148 million in Dec 2019. The level of part-time for
economic reasons increased to 4.182 million in Jan 2020, increasing to
4.318 million in Feb 2020. The level of part-time for economic reasons increased
to 5.765 million in Mar 2020 and increased to 10.887 million in Apr 2020.
The level of part-time for economic reasons decreased to 10.633 million in
May 2020 in
the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of
economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of part-time for economic reasons decreased to 9.062
million in Jun 2020, decreasing to 8.443 million in Jul 2020. The level of
part-time for economic reasons decreased to 7.572 million in Aug 2020.
- Seasonally adjusted
full-time. The number employed full-time increased from 112.923
million in Oct 2011 to 115.024 million in Mar 2012 or 2.101 million but
then fell to 114.233 million in May 2012 or 0.791 million fewer full-time
employed than in Mar 2012. The number employed full-time increased from
114.736 million in Aug 2012 to 115.570 million in Oct 2012 or increase of
0.834 million full-time jobs in two months and further to 115.563 million
in Jan 2013 or increase of 0.827 million more full-time jobs in five
months from Aug 2012 to Jan 2013. The number of full time jobs decreased
slightly to 115.695 million in Feb 2013, increasing to 116.240 million in
May 2013 and 116.166 million in Jun 2013. Then number of full-time jobs
increased to 116.201 million in Jul 2013, 116.417 million in Aug 2013 and
116.846 million in Sep 2013. The number of full-time jobs fell to 116.352
million in Oct 2013 and increased to 117.078 in Nov 2013. The level of
full-time jobs increased to 117.394 million in Dec 2013, increasing to
117.468 million in Jan 2014 and 117.734 million in Feb 2014. The level of
employment full-time increased to 117.959 million in Mar 2014 and 118.433
million in Apr 2014. The level of full-time employment reached 118.791
million in May 2014, decreasing to 118.229 million in Jun 2014. The level
of full-time jobs increased to 118.426 million in Jul 2014 and 118.715
million in Aug 2014. The level of full-time jobs increased to 119.306
million in Sep 2014, 119.787 million in Oct 2014 and 119.717 million in
Nov 2014. The level of full-time jobs increased to 120.138 million in Dec
2014 and 120.452 million in Jan 2015. The level of full-time jobs
increased to 120.658 million in Feb 2015 and 120.981 million in Mar 2015.
The level of full-time jobs decreased to 120.813 million in Apr 2015,
increasing to 121.514 million in May 2015 and decreasing to 121.021
million in Jun 2015. The level of full-time jobs increased to 121.642
million in Jul 2015 and increased to 122.066 million in Aug 2015,
decreasing to 121.760 million in Sep 2015. The level of full-time jobs
increased to 122.182 million in Oct 2015 and increased to 122.182 million
in Nov 2015. The level of full-time jobs increased to 122.757 million in
Dec 2015 and 122.971 million in Jan 2016. The level of full-time jobs
increased to 123.058 million in Feb 2016 and increased to 123.560 million
in Mar 2016. The level of full-time jobs decreased to 123.217 million in
Apr 2016 and 123.231 million in May 2016. The level of full-time jobs
increased to 123.636 million in Jun 2016, increasing to 123.956 million in
Jul 2016. The level of full-time jobs increased to 124.560 million in Aug
2016, decreasing to 124.157 million in Sep 2016 and 124.198 million in Oct
2016. The level of full-time jobs increased to 124.248 million in Nov 2016
and 124.320 million in Dec 2016. The level of full-time jobs increased to
124.563 million in Jan 2017, increasing to 124.877 million in Feb
2017. The level of full-time jobs
increased to 125.642 million in Mar 2017 and increased to 126.067 million
in Apr 2017, decreasing to 125.637 million in May 2017. The level of
full-time jobs increased to 126.049 million in Jun 2017, decreasing to
125.938 million in Jul 2017 and 126.043 million in Aug 2017. The level of
full-time jobs increased to 126.647 million in Sep 2017, decreasing to
126.633 million in Oct 2017. The level of full-time jobs increased to
126.730 million in Nov 2017, decreasing to 126.716 million in Dec 2017. The
level of full-time jobs increased to 127.004 million in Jan 2018,
increasing to 127.671 million in Feb 2018. The level of full-time jobs
decreased to 127.527 million in Mar 2018, increasing to 127.911 million in
Apr 2018. The level of full-time jobs increased to 128.777 million in May
2018, decreasing to 128.635 million in Jun 2018. The level of full-time
jobs increased to 129.013 million in Jul 2018, decreasing to 128.683
million in Aug 2018. The level of full-time jobs increased to 128.872
million in Sep 2018, increasing to 129.173 million in Oct 2018. The level
of full-time jobs increased to 129.685 million in Nov 2018, increasing to
129.825 million in Dec 2018. The level of full-time jobs decreased to
129.775 million in Jan 2019, increasing to 130.115 million in Feb 2019.
The level of full-time jobs decreased to 129.955 million in Mar 2019,
decreasing to 129.816 million in Apr 2019. The level of full-time jobs
decreased to 129.830 million in May 2019, increasing to 130.254 million in
Jun 2019. The level of full-time jobs increased to 130.494 million in Jul
2019, increasing to 130.877 million in Aug 2019. The level of full-time
jobs increased to 131.123 million in Sep 2019, increasing to 131.518
million in Oct 2019. The level of full-time jobs increased to 131.561
million in Nov 2019 and increased to 131.755 million in Dec 2019. The
level of full-time jobs decreased to 131.099 million in Jan 2020. The
level of full-time jobs increased to 131.109 million in Feb 2020. The
level of full-time jobs decreased to 129.298 million in Mar 2020 and
decreased to 114.322 million. The level of full-time jobs increased to
116.523 million in May 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching
a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the global recession,
with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of
economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of full-time jobs increased to 118.941 million in Jun
2020, increasing to 119.532 million in Jul 2020. The level of
full-time jobs increased to 122.369 million in Aug 2020. Adjustments of
benchmark and seasonality-factors at the turn of every year could affect
comparability of labor market indicators (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/fluctuating-risk-financial-assets-in.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/job-creation-and-monetary-policy-twenty.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/financial-instability-rules.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/thirty-one-million-unemployed-or.html).
- Not seasonally
adjusted part-time for economic reasons. The number of employed part-time for economic
reasons actually increased without seasonal adjustment from 8.271 million
in Nov 2011 to 8.428 million in Dec 2011 or by 157,000 and then to 8.918
million in Jan 2012 or by an additional 490,000 for cumulative increase
from Nov 2011 to Jan 2012 of 647,000.
The level of employed part-time for economic reasons then fell from
8.918 million in Jan 2012 to 7.867 million in Mar 2012 or by 1.051 million
and to 7.694 million in Apr 2012 or 1.224 million fewer relative to Jan
2012. In Aug 2012, the number employed part-time for economic reasons
reached 7.842 million NSA or 148,000 more than in Apr 2012. The number
employed part-time for economic reasons increased from 7.842 million in
Aug 2012 to 8.110 million in Sep 2012 or by 3.4 percent. The number
part-time for economic reasons fell from 8.110 million in Sep 2012 to 7.870
million in Oct 2012 or by 240.000 in one month. The number employed
part-time for economic reasons NSA increased to 8.628 million in Jan 2013
or 758,000 more than in Oct 2012. The number employed part-time for
economic reasons fell to 8.298 million in Feb 2013, which is lower by
330,000 relative to 8.628 million in Jan 2013 but higher by 428,000
relative to 7.870 million in Oct 2012. The number employed part time for
economic reasons fell to 7.734 million in Mar 2013 or 564,000 fewer than
in Feb 2013 and fell to 7.709 million in Apr 2013. The number employed
part-time for economic reasons reached 7.618 million in May 2013. The
number employed part-time for economic reasons jumped from 7.618 million
in May 2013 to 8.440 million in Jun 2013 or 822,000 in one month. The
number employed part-time for economic reasons fell to 8.324 million in
Jul 2013 and 7.690 million in Aug 2013. The number employed part-time for
economic reasons NSA fell to 7.522 million in Sep 2013, increasing to
7.700 million in Oct 2013. The number employed part-time for economic
reasons fell to 7.563 million in Nov 2013 and increased to 7.990 million
in Dec 2013. The number employed part-time for economic reasons fell to
7.771 million in Jan 2014 and 7.397 million in Feb 2014. The level of
part-time for economic reasons increased to 7.455 million in Mar 2014 and
fell to 7.243 million in Apr 2014. The number of part-time for economic
reasons fell to 6.960 million in May 2014, increasing to 7.805 million in
Jun 2014. The level of part-time for economic reasons fell to 7.665
million in Jul 2014 and 7.083 million in Aug 2014. The level of part-time
for economic reasons fell to 6.711 million in Sep 2014 and increased to
6.787 million in Oct 2014. The level of part-time for economic reasons
reached 6.713 million in Nov 2014 and 6.970 million in Dec 2014,
increasing to 7.269 million in Jan 2015. The level of part-time for economic
reasons fell to 6.772 million in Feb 2015 and 6.672 million in Mar 2015,
falling to 6.356 million in Apr 2015. The level of part-time for economic
reasons increased to 6.363 million in May 2015 and to 6.776 million in Jun
2015, decreasing to 6.511 million in Jul 2015. The level of part-time for
economic reasons fell to 6.361 million in Aug 2015 and 5.693 million in
Sep 2015. The level of part-time for economic reasons fell to 5.536
million in Oct 2015, increasing to 5.967 million in Nov 2015. The level of
part-time for economic reasons increased to 6.179 million in Dec 2015,
increasing to 6.406 million in Jan 2016. The level of part-time for
economic reasons decreased to 6.106 million in Feb 2016 and increased to
6.138 million in Mar 2016. The level of part-time for economic reasons
decreased to 5.771 million in Apr 2016 and increased to 6.238 million in
May 2016. The level of part-time for economic reasons decreased to 6.119
million in Jun 2016, increasing to 6.157 million in Jul 2016. The level of
part-time for economic reasons fell to 5.963 million in Aug 2016,
decreasing to 5.550 million in Sep 2016. The level of part-time for
economic reasons increased to 5.648 million in Oct 2016, decreasing to
5.518 million in Nov 2016 and increasing to 5.707 million in Dec 2016. The
level of part-time for economic reasons increased to 6.226 million in Jan
2017, decreasing to 5.773 million in Feb 2017. The level of part-time for
economic reasons fell to 5.552 million in Mar 2017, decreasing to 5.058
million in Apr 2017. The level of part-time for economic reasons fell to
5.038 million in May 2017, increasing to 5.602 million in Jun 2017. The
level of part-time for economic reasons fell to 5.475 million in Jul 2017,
5.204 million in Aug 2017 and 4.818 million in Sep 2017. The level of
part-time for economic reasons decreased to 4.553 million in Oct 2017,
decreasing to 4.462 million in Nov 2017. The level of part-time for
economic reasons increased to 5.060 million in Dec 2017, increasing to
5.474 million in Jan 2018 and decreasing to 5.331 million in Feb 2018. The
level of part-time for economic reasons decreased to 5.080 million in Mar
2018, decreasing to 4.734 million in Apr 2018. The level of part-time for economic
reasons increased to 4.739 million in May 2018, increasing to 5.042
million in Jun 2018. The level of part-time for economic reasons decreased
to 4.766 million in Jul 2018, decreasing to 4.319 million in Aug 2018. The
level of part-time for economic reasons decreased to 4.306 million in Sep
2018, decreasing to 4.246 million in Oct 2018. The level of part-time for
economic reasons increased to 4.558 million in Nov 2018, increasing to
4.740 million in Dec 2018. The level of part-time for economic reasons
increased to 5.640 million in Jan 2019, decreasing to 4.561 million in Feb
2019. The level of part-time for economic reasons increased to 4.621
million in Mar 2019, decreasing to 4.483 million in Apr 2019.The level of
part-time for economic reasons decreased to 4.160 million in May 2019,
increasing to 4.602 million in Jun 2019. The level of part-time for
economic reasons decreased to 4.102 million in Jul 2019, increasing to
4.316 million in Aug 2019. The level of part-time for economic reasons
decreased to 3.992 million in Sep 2019, increasing to 4.046 million in Oct
2019. The level of part-time for economic reasons increased to 4.110
million in Nov 2019, increasing to 4.247 million in Dec 2019. The level of
part-time for economic reasons increased to 4.732 million in Jan 2020. The
level of part-time for economic reasons decreased to 4.600 million in Feb
2020. The level of part-time for economic reasons increased to 5.879
million in Mar 2020 and increased to 10.684 million in Apr 2020. The level
of part-time for economic reasons decreased to 10.429 million in May 2020 in the global recession,
with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of
economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of part-time for economic reasons
decreased to 9.306 million in Jun 2020, decreasing to 8.572 million in Jul
2020. The level of part-time for economic reasons decreased to 7.488
million in Aug 2020.
- Not seasonally
adjusted full-time. The number employed full time without seasonal adjustment
fell from 113.138 million in Nov 2011 to 113.050 million in Dec 2011 or by
88,000 and fell further to 111.879 in Jan 2012 for cumulative decrease of
1.259 million. The number employed full-time not seasonally adjusted fell
from 113.138 million in Nov 2011 to 112.587 million in Feb 2012 or by
551.000 but increased to 116.214 million in Aug 2012 or 3.076 million more
full-time jobs than in Nov 2011. The number employed full-time not
seasonally adjusted decreased from 116.214 million in Aug 2012 to 115.678
million in Sep 2012 for loss of 536,000 full-time jobs and rose to 116.045
million in Oct 2012 or by 367,000 full-time jobs in one month relative to
Sep 2012. The number employed full-time NSA fell from 116.045 million in
Oct 2012 to 115.515 million in Nov 2012 or decline of 530.000 in one
month. The number employed full-time fell from 115.515 in Nov 2012 to
115.079 million in Dec 2012 or decline by 436,000 in one month. The number
employed full time fell from 115.079 million in Dec 2012 to 113.868
million in Jan 2013 or decline of 1.211 million in one month. The number
of full-time jobs increased to 114.191 in Feb 2012 or by 323,000 in one
month and increased to 114.796 million in Mar 2013 for cumulative increase
from Jan by 928,000 full-time jobs but decrease of 283,000 from Dec 2012.
The number employed full time reached 117.400 million in Jun 2013 and
increased to 117.688 in Jul 2013 or by 288,000. The number employed
full-time reached 117.868 million in Aug 2013 for increase of 180,000 in one
month relative to Jul 2013. The number employed full-time fell to 117.308
million in Sep 2013 or by 560,000. The number employed full-time fell to
116.798 million in Oct 2013 or decline of 510.000 in one month. The number
employed full-time rose to 116.875 million in Nov 2013, falling to 116.661
million in Dec 2013. The number employed full-time fell to 115.744 million
in Jan 2014 but increased to 116.323 million in Feb 2014. The level of
full-time jobs increased to 116.985 in Mar 2014 and 118.073 million in Apr
2014. The number of full-time jobs increased to 119.179 million in May
2014, increasing to 119.472 million in Jun 2014. The level of full-time
jobs increased to 119.900 million in Jul 2014. Comparisons over long
periods require use of NSA data. The number with full-time jobs fell from
a high of 123.219 million in Jul 2007 to 108.777 million in Jan 2010 or by
14.442 million. The number with full-time jobs in Aug
2020 is 123.619 million, in the global recession,
with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19
event, which is higher by
0.400 million relative to the peak of 123.219 million in Jul 2007.
- Loss of full-time jobs. The magnitude of the stress in
US labor markets is magnified by the increase in the civilian
noninstitutional population of the United States from 231.958 million in
Jul 2007 to 260.558 million in Aug 2020 or by 28.600 million (https://www.bls.gov/data/). The number with full-time jobs in Aug 2020 is 123.619
million, in
the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of
economic activity in the COVID-19 event, which is higher by 0.400 million relative to the
peak of 123.219 million in Jul 2007. The ratio of full-time jobs of 123.219 million in Jul 2007 to
civilian noninstitutional population of 231.958 million was 53.1 percent.
If that ratio had remained the same, there would be 138.356 million
full-time jobs with population of 260.558 million in Aug 2020 (0.531 x
260.558) or 14.737 million fewer full-time jobs relative to actual 123.619
million. There appear to be around 15 million fewer full-time jobs in the
US than before the global recession while population increased around 28
million. Mediocre GDP growth is the main culprit of the fractured US labor
market augmented in
the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of
economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Long-term
economic performance in the United States consisted of trend growth of GDP
at 3 percent per year and of per capita GDP at 2 percent per year as
measured for 1870 to 2010 by Robert E Lucas (2011May). The economy
returned to trend growth after adverse events such as wars and recessions.
The key characteristic of adversities such as recessions was much higher
rates of growth in expansion periods that permitted the economy to recover
output, income and employment losses that occurred during the
contractions. Over the business cycle, the economy compensated the losses
of contractions with higher growth in expansions to maintain trend growth
of GDP of 3 percent and of GDP per capita of 2 percent. US economic growth
has been at only 1.2 percent on average in the cyclical expansion in the
44 quarters from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2020 and in the global recession with
output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of
economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Boskin (2010Sep) measures that
the US economy grew at 6.2 percent in the first four quarters and 4.5
percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the second quarter of
1975; and at 7.7 percent in the first four quarters and 5.8 percent in the
first 12 quarters after the trough in the first quarter of 1983 (Professor
Michael J. Boskin, Summer of Discontent, Wall Street Journal, Sep 2, 2010 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882304575465462926649950.html). There are new
calculations using the revision of US GDP and personal income data since
1929 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (http://bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) and the second
estimate of GDP for IIQ2020 (https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2020-08/gdp2q20_2nd.pdf). The average of 7.7
percent in the first four quarters of major cyclical expansions is in
contrast with the rate of growth in the first four quarters of the
expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010 of only 2.8 percent obtained by
dividing GDP of $15,557.3 billion in IIQ2010 by GDP of $15,134.1 billion
in IIQ2009 {[($15,557.3/$15,134.1) -1]100 = 2.8%], or accumulating the
quarter on quarter growth rates (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/d-ollar-devaluation-and-yuan.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/contraction-of-united-states-gdp-at-32_57.html). The expansion from
IQ1983 to IQ1986 was at the average annual
growth rate of 5.7 percent, 5.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1986,
5.1 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1986, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1987, 5.0
percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1987, 5.0
percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1988, 4.8
percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1988, 4.8 percent
from IQ1983 to IQ1989, 4.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1989, 4.6 percent
from IQ1983 to IIIQ1989, 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1989. 4.5 percent
from IQ1983 to IQ1990, 4.4 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1990, 4.3 percent
from IQ1983 to IIIQ1990, 4.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1990, 3.8 percent
from IQ1983 to IQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1991, 3.8 percent
from IQ1983 to IIIQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1991, 3.7 percent
from IQ1983 to IQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1992, 3.7 percent from
IQ1983 to IIIQ2019, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1992, 3.7 percent from
IQ1983 to IQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1993, 3.6 percent from
IQ1983 to IIIQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1993 and at 7.9 percent
from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/d-ollar-devaluation-and-yuan.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/contraction-of-united-states-gdp-at-32_57.html). The National Bureau
of Economic Research (NBER) dates a contraction of the US from IQ1990
(Jul) to IQ1991 (Mar) (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html). The expansion lasted
until another contraction beginning in IQ2001 (Mar). US GDP contracted 1.3
percent from the pre-recession peak of $8983.9 billion of chained 2009
dollars in IIIQ1990 to the trough of $8865.6 billion in IQ1991 (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). The US maintained
growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at
higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire
cycle from IVQ2007 to IIQ2020 and in the global recession with output in
the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of
economic activity in the COVID-19 event would have accumulated to 44.7
percent. GDP in IIQ2020 would be $22,807.6 billion (in constant dollars of
2012) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $5525.4 billion
than actual $17,282.2 billion. There are more than five trillion dollars
of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 34.8 million unemployed or
underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 20.2
percent of the effective labor force with the largest part originating in
the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of
economic activity in the COVID-19 event (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/09/exchange-rate-fluctuations-1.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/thirty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html). Unemployment is decreasing while employment
is increasing in initial adjustment of the lockdown of economic activity
in the global recession resulting from the COVID-19 event (https://www.bls.gov/cps/employment-situation-covid19-faq-june-2020.pdf). US GDP in IIQ2020 is 24.2 percent lower than at trend.
US GDP grew from $15,762.0 billion in
IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $17,282.5 billion in IIQ2020 or 9.6 percent
at the average annual equivalent rate of 0.7 percent. Professor John H.
Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend.
Cochrane (2016May02) measures GDP growth in the US at average 3.5 percent
per year from 1950 to 2000 and only at 1.76 percent per year from 2000 to
2015 with only at 2.0 percent annual equivalent in the current expansion.
Cochrane (2016May02) proposes drastic changes in regulation and legal
obstacles to private economic activity. The US missed the opportunity to
grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up
because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline.
The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always
afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero
interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in
successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0
percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas
(2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly
slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in
manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output
from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent
and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average
2.9 percent per year from Jul 1919 to Jul 2020. Growth at 2.9 percent per
year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard
Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 155.1850 in Jul
2020. The actual index NSA in Jul 2020 is 94.7916 which is 38.9 percent
below trend. The underperformance of manufacturing in Jul 2020 originates
partly in the earlier global recession augmented by the current global recession
with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of
economic activity in the COVID-19. Manufacturing grew at the average
annual rate of 3.3 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2006. Growth at 3.3
percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC,
Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 162.9490
in Jul 2020. The actual index NSA in Jul 2020 is 94.7916, which is 41.8
percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 1.6 percent
between Dec 1986 and Jul 2020. Using trend growth of 1.6 percent per year,
the index would increase to 132.2418 in Jul 2020. The output of
manufacturing at 94.7916 in Jul 2020 is 28.3 percent below trend under
this alternative calculation. Using the
NAICS (North American Industry Classification System), manufacturing
output fell from the high of 110.5147 in Jun 2007 to the low of 86.3800 in
Apr 2009 or 21.8 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased from
86.3800 in Apr 2009 to 95.7434 in Jul 2020 or 10.8 percent. The NAICS
manufacturing index increased at the annual equivalent rate of 3.5 percent
from Dec 1986 to Dec 2006. Growth at 3.5 percent would increase the NAICS
manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 164.4646 in Jul
2020. The NAICS index at 95.7434 in Jul 2020 is 41.8 below trend. The
NAICS manufacturing output index grew at 1.7 percent annual equivalent
from Dec 1999 to Dec 2006. Growth at 1.7 percent would raise the NAICS
manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 131.8850 in Jul
2020. The NAICS index at 95.7434 in Jul 2020 is 27.4 percent below trend
under this alternative calculation.
Table I-9, US,
Employed Part-time for Economic Reasons, Thousands, and Full-time, Millions
|
|
Part-time
Thousands |
Full-time
Millions |
|
Seasonally
Adjusted |
|
|
|
Aug 2020 |
7,572 |
122.369 |
|
Jul 2020 |
8,443 |
119.532 |
|
Jun 2020 |
9,062 |
118.941 |
|
May 2020 |
10,633 |
116.523 |
|
Apr 2020 |
10,887 |
114.322 |
|
Mar 2020 |
5,765 |
129.298 |
|
Feb 2020 |
4,318 |
131.109 |
|
Jan 2020 |
4,182 |
131.099 |
|
Dec 2019 |
4,148 |
131.755 |
|
Nov 2019 |
4,288 |
131.561 |
|
Oct 2019 |
4,397 |
131.518 |
|
Sep 2019 |
4,336 |
131.123 |
|
Aug 2019 |
4,381 |
130.877 |
|
Jul 2019 |
3,973 |
130.494 |
|
Jun 2019 |
4,350 |
130.254 |
|
May 2019 |
4,375 |
129.830 |
|
Apr 2019 |
4,706 |
129.816 |
|
Mar 2019 |
4,517 |
129.955 |
|
Feb 2019 |
4,302 |
130.115 |
|
Jan 2019 |
5,105 |
129.775 |
|
Dec 2018 |
4,655 |
129.825 |
|
Nov 2018 |
4,754 |
129.685 |
|
Oct 2018 |
4,599 |
129.173 |
|
Sep 2018 |
4,654 |
128.872 |
|
Aug 2018 |
4,356 |
128.683 |
|
Jul 2018 |
4,619 |
129.013 |
|
Jun 2018 |
4,762 |
128.635 |
|
May 2018 |
4,952 |
128.777 |
|
Apr 2018 |
4,969 |
127.911 |
|
Mar 2018 |
4,981 |
127.527 |
|
Feb 2018 |
5,097 |
127.671 |
|
Jan 2018 |
4,951 |
127.004 |
|
Dec 2017 |
4,985 |
126.716 |
|
Nov 2017 |
4,848 |
126.730 |
|
Oct 2017 |
4,895 |
126.633 |
|
Sep 2017 |
5,177 |
126.647 |
|
Aug 2017 |
5,225 |
126.043 |
|
Jul 2017 |
5,301 |
125.938 |
|
Jun 2017 |
5,283 |
126.049 |
|
May 2017 |
5,257 |
125.637 |
|
Apr 2017 |
5,293 |
126.067 |
|
Mar 2017 |
5,463 |
125.642 |
|
Feb 2017 |
5,585 |
124.877 |
|
Jan 2017 |
5,734 |
124.563 |
|
Dec 2016 |
5,618 |
124.320 |
|
Nov 2016 |
5,728 |
124.248 |
|
Oct 2016 |
5,965 |
124.198 |
|
Sep 2016 |
5,917 |
124.157 |
|
Aug 2016 |
5,986 |
124.560 |
|
Jul 2016 |
5,937 |
123.956 |
|
Jun 2016 |
5,759 |
123.636 |
|
May 2016 |
6,480 |
123.231 |
|
Apr 2016 |
6,014 |
123.217 |
|
Mar 2016 |
6,070 |
123.560 |
|
Feb 2016 |
5,967 |
123.058 |
|
Jan 2016 |
5,934 |
122.971 |
|
Dec 2015 |
6,075 |
122.757 |
|
Nov 2015 |
6,170 |
122.182 |
|
Oct 2015 |
5,813 |
122.094 |
|
Sep 2015 |
6,042 |
121.760 |
|
Aug 2015 |
6,418 |
122.067 |
|
Jul 2015 |
6,253 |
121.642 |
|
Jun 2015 |
6,388 |
121.021 |
|
May 2015 |
6,634 |
121.514 |
|
Apr 2015 |
6,611 |
120.813 |
|
Mar 2015 |
6,633 |
120.981 |
|
Feb 2015 |
6,665 |
120.658 |
|
Jan 2015 |
6,808 |
120.452 |
|
Dec 2014 |
6,856 |
120.138 |
|
Nov 2014 |
6,898 |
119.717 |
|
Oct 2014 |
7,025 |
119.787 |
|
Sep 2014 |
7,020 |
119.306 |
|
Aug 2014 |
7,177 |
118.715 |
|
Jul 2014 |
7,402 |
118.426 |
|
Jun 2014 |
7,422 |
118.229 |
|
May 2014 |
7,254 |
118.791 |
|
Apr 2014 |
7,509 |
118.433 |
|
Mar 2014 |
7,435 |
117.959 |
|
Feb 2014 |
7,299 |
117.734 |
|
Jan 2014 |
7,296 |
117.468 |
|
Dec 2013 |
7,827 |
117.394 |
|
Nov 2013 |
7,718 |
117.078 |
|
Oct 2013 |
7,936 |
116.352 |
|
Sep 2013 |
7,764 |
116.846 |
|
Aug 2013 |
7,816 |
116.417 |
|
Jul 2013 |
8,099 |
116.201 |
|
Jun 2013 |
8,103 |
116.166 |
|
May 2013 |
7,937 |
116.240 |
|
Apr 2013 |
7,964 |
116.014 |
|
Mar 2013 |
7,722 |
115.808 |
|
Feb 2013 |
8,178 |
115.695 |
|
Jan 2013 |
8,151 |
115.653 |
|
Dec 2012 |
7,943 |
115.791 |
|
Nov 2012 |
8,166 |
115.655 |
|
Oct 2012 |
8,203 |
115.570 |
|
Sep 2012 |
8,671 |
115.252 |
|
Aug 2012 |
7,974 |
114.736 |
|
Jul 2012 |
8,082 |
114.575 |
|
Jun 2012 |
8,072 |
114.749 |
|
May 2012 |
8,101 |
114.233 |
|
Apr 2012 |
7,913 |
114.371 |
|
Mar 2012 |
7,775 |
115.024 |
|
Feb 2012 |
8,238 |
114.141 |
|
Jan 2012 |
8,305 |
113.755 |
|
Dec 2011 |
8,171 |
113.774 |
|
Nov 2011 |
8,447 |
113.213 |
|
Oct 2011 |
8,657 |
112.923 |
|
Sep 2011 |
9,166 |
112.544 |
|
Aug 2011 |
8,788 |
112.723 |
|
Jul 2011 |
8,281 |
112.193 |
|
Not Seasonally
Adjusted |
|
|
|
Aug 2020 |
7,488 |
123.619 |
|
Jul 2020 |
8,572 |
121.198 |
|
Jun 2020 |
9,306 |
120.169 |
|
May 2020 |
10,429 |
116.620 |
|
Apr 2020 |
10,684 |
113.656 |
|
Mar 2020 |
5,879 |
127.981 |
|
Feb 2020 |
4,600 |
129.734 |
|
Jan 2020 |
4,732 |
129.379 |
|
Dec 2019 |
4,247 |
131.142 |
|
Nov 2019 |
4,110 |
131.385 |
|
Oct 2019 |
4,046 |
131.990 |
|
Sep 2019 |
3,992 |
131.704 |
|
Aug 2019 |
4,316 |
132.156 |
|
Jul 2019 |
4,102 |
132.153 |
|
Jun 2019 |
4,602 |
131.542 |
|
May 2019 |
4,160 |
130.059 |
|
Apr 2019 |
4,483 |
129.212 |
|
Mar 2019 |
4,621 |
128.819 |
|
Feb 2019 |
4,561 |
128.836 |
|
Jan 2019 |
5,640 |
128.166 |
|
Dec 2018 |
4,740 |
129.143 |
|
Nov 2018 |
4,558 |
129.464 |
|
Oct 2018 |
4,246 |
129.627 |
|
Sep 2018 |
4,306 |
129.466 |
|
Aug 2018 |
4,319 |
129.975 |
|
Jul 2018 |
4,766 |
130.644 |
|
Jun 2018 |
5,042 |
129.937 |
|
May 2018 |
4,739 |
129.014 |
|
Apr 2018 |
4,734 |
127.340 |
|
Mar 2018 |
5,080 |
126.424 |
|
Feb 2018 |
5,331 |
126.401 |
|
Jan 2018 |
5,474 |
125.435 |
|
Dec 2017 |
5,060 |
125.985 |
|
Nov 2017 |
4,462 |
126.468 |
|
Oct 2017 |
4,553 |
127.055 |
|
Sep 2017 |
4,818 |
127.235 |
|
Aug 2017 |
5,204 |
127.353 |
|
Jul 2017 |
5,475 |
127.542 |
|
Jun 2017 |
5,602 |
127.337 |
|
May 2017 |
5,038 |
125.911 |
|
Apr 2017 |
5,058 |
125.532 |
|
Mar 2017 |
5,552 |
124.566 |
|
Feb 2017 |
5,773 |
123.610 |
|
Jan 2017 |
6,226 |
123.015 |
|
Dec 2016 |
5,707 |
123.570 |
|
Nov 2016 |
5,518 |
123.960 |
|
Oct 2016 |
5,648 |
124.588 |
|
Sep 2016 |
5,550 |
124.728 |
|
Aug 2016 |
5,963 |
125.892 |
|
Jul 2016 |
6,157 |
125.507 |
|
Jun 2016 |
6,119 |
124.903 |
|
May 2016 |
6,238 |
123.548 |
|
Apr 2016 |
5,771 |
122.742 |
|
Mar 2016 |
6,138 |
122.522 |
|
Feb 2016 |
6,106 |
121.757 |
|
Jan 2016 |
6,406 |
121.411 |
|
Dec 2015 |
6,179 |
122.013 |
|
Nov 2015 |
5,967 |
121.897 |
|
Oct 2015 |
5,536 |
122.466 |
|
Sep 2015 |
5,693 |
122.303 |
|
Aug 2015 |
6,361 |
123.420 |
|
Jul 2015 |
6,511 |
123.142 |
|
Jun 2015 |
6,776 |
122.268 |
|
May 2015 |
6,363 |
121.863 |
|
Apr 2015 |
6,356 |
120.402 |
|
Mar 2015 |
6,672 |
119.981 |
|
Feb 2015 |
6,772 |
119.313 |
|
Jan 2015 |
7,269 |
118.840 |
|
Dec 2014 |
6,970 |
119.394 |
|
Nov 2014 |
6,713 |
119.441 |
|
Oct 2014 |
6,787 |
120.176 |
|
Sep 2014 |
6,711 |
119.791 |
|
Aug 2014 |
7,083 |
120.110 |
|
Jul 2014 |
7,665 |
119.900 |
|
Jun 2014 |
7,805 |
119.472 |
|
May 2014 |
6,960 |
119.179 |
|
Apr 2014 |
7,243 |
118.073 |
|
Mar 2014 |
7,455 |
116.985 |
|
Feb 2014 |
7,397 |
116.323 |
|
Jan 2014 |
7,771 |
115.774 |
|
Dec 2013 |
7,990 |
116.661 |
|
Nov 2013 |
7,563 |
116.875 |
|
Oct 2013 |
7,700 |
116.798 |
|
Sep 2013 |
7,522 |
117.308 |
|
Aug 2013 |
7,690 |
117.868 |
|
Jul 2013 |
8,324 |
117.688 |
|
Jun 2013 |
8,440 |
117.400 |
|
May 2013 |
7,618 |
116.643 |
|
Apr 2013 |
7,709 |
115.674 |
|
Mar 2013 |
7,734 |
114.796 |
|
Feb 2013 |
8,298 |
114.191 |
|
Jan 2013 |
8,628 |
113.868 |
|
Dec 2012 |
8,166 |
115.079 |
|
Nov 2012 |
7,994 |
115.515 |
|
Oct 2012 |
7,870 |
116.045 |
|
Sep 2012 |
8,110 |
115.678 |
|
Aug 2012 |
7,842 |
116.214 |
|
Jul 2012 |
8,316 |
116.131 |
|
Jun 2012 |
8,394 |
116.024 |
|
May 2012 |
7,837 |
114.634 |
|
Apr 2012 |
7,694 |
113.999 |
|
Mar 2012 |
7,867 |
113.916 |
|
Feb 2012 |
8,455 |
112.587 |
|
Jan 2012 |
8,918 |
111.879 |
|
Dec 2011 |
8,428 |
113.050 |
|
Nov 2011 |
8,271 |
113.138 |
|
Oct 2011 |
8,258 |
113.456 |
|
Sep 2011 |
8,541 |
112.980 |
|
Aug 2011 |
8,604 |
114.286 |
|
Jul 2011 |
8,514 |
113.759 |
|
Jun 2011 |
8,738 |
113.255 |
|
May 2011 |
8,270 |
112.618 |
|
Apr 2011 |
8,425 |
111.844 |
|
Mar 2011 |
8,737 |
111.186 |
|
Feb 2011 |
8,749 |
110.731 |
|
Jan 2011 |
9,187 |
110.373 |
|
Dec 2010 |
9,205 |
111.207 |
|
Nov 2010 |
8,670 |
111.348 |
|
Oct 2010 |
8,408 |
112.342 |
|
Sep 2010 |
8,628 |
112.385 |
|
Aug 2010 |
8,628 |
113.508 |
|
Jul 2010 |
8,737 |
113.974 |
|
Jun 2010 |
8,867 |
113.856 |
|
May 2010 |
8,513 |
112.809 |
|
Apr 2010 |
8,921 |
111.391 |
|
Mar 2010 |
9,343 |
109.877 |
|
Feb 2010 |
9,282 |
109.100 |
|
Jan 2010 |
9,290 |
108.777 (low) |
|
Dec 2009 |
9,354 (high) |
109.875 |
|
Nov 2009 |
8,894 |
111.274 |
|
Oct 2009 |
8,474 |
111.599 |
|
Sep 2009 |
8,255 |
111.991 |
|
Aug 2009 |
8,835 |
113.863 |
|
Jul 2009 |
9,103 |
114.184 |
|
Jun 2009 |
9,301 |
114.014 |
|
May 2009 |
8,785 |
113.083 |
|
Apr 2009 |
8,648 |
112.746 |
|
Mar 2009 |
9,305 |
112.215 |
|
Feb 2009 |
9,170 |
112.947 |
|
Jan 2009 |
8,829 |
113.815 |
|
Dec 2008 |
8,250 |
116.422 |
|
Nov 2008 |
7,135 |
118.432 |
|
Oct 2008 |
6,267 |
120.020 |
|
Sep 2008 |
5,701 |
120.213 |
|
Aug 2008 |
5,736 |
121.556 |
|
Jul 2008 |
6,054 |
122.378 |
|
Jun 2008 |
5,697 |
121.845 |
|
May 2008 |
5,096 |
120.809 |
|
Apr 2008 |
5,071 |
120.027 |
|
Mar 2008 |
5,038 |
119.875 |
|
Feb 2008 |
5,114 |
119.452 |
|
Jan 2008 |
5,340 |
119.332 |
|
Dec 2007 |
4,750 |
121.042 |
|
Nov 2007 |
4,374 |
121.846 |
|
Oct 2007 |
4,028 |
122.006 |
|
Sep 2007 |
4,137 |
121.728 |
|
Aug 2007 |
4,494 |
122.870 |
|
Jul 2007 |
4,516 |
123.219
(high) |
|
Jun 2007 |
4,469 |
122.150 |
|
May 2007 |
4,315 |
120.846 |
|
Apr 2007 |
4,205 |
119.609 |
|
Mar 2007 |
4,384 |
119.640 |
|
Feb 2007 |
4,417 |
119.041 |
|
Jan 2007 |
4,726 |
119.094 |
|
Dec 2006 |
4,281 |
120.371 |
|
Nov 2006 |
4,054 |
120.507 |
|
Oct 2006 |
4,010 |
121.199 |
|
Sep 2006 |
3,735 (low) |
120.780 |
|
Aug 2006 |
4,104 |
121.979 |
|
Jul 2006 |
4,450 |
121.951 |
|
Jun 2006 |
4,456 |
121.070 |
|
May 2006 |
3,968 |
118.925 |
|
Apr 2006 |
3,787 |
118.559 |
|
Mar 2006 |
4,097 |
117.693 |
|
Feb 2006 |
4,403 |
116.823 |
|
Jan 2006 |
4,597 |
116.395 |
Source: US
Bureau of Labor Statistics
The magnitude of the
stress in US labor markets is magnified by the increase in the civilian
noninstitutional population of the United States from 231.958 million in Jul
2007 to 260.558 million in Aug 2020 or by 28.600 million (https://www.bls.gov/data/). The number with full-time
jobs in Aug 2020 is 123.619 million, in the global recession, with
output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event, which is higher by 0.400
million relative to the peak of 123.219 million in Jul 2007. The ratio of full-time
jobs of 123.219 million in Jul 2007 to civilian noninstitutional population of
231.958 million was 53.1 percent. If that ratio had remained the same, there
would be 138.356 million full-time jobs with population of 260.558 million in Aug
2020 (0.531 x 260.558) or 14.737 million fewer full-time jobs relative to
actual 123.619 million. There appear to be around 15 million fewer full-time
jobs in the US than before the global recession while population increased
around 28 million. Mediocre GDP growth is the main culprit of the fractured US
labor market augmented in the global recession, with output in the US reaching
a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.
There is
current interest in past theories of “secular stagnation.” Alvin H. Hansen
(1939, 4, 7; see Hansen 1938, 1941; for an early critique see Simons 1942)
argues:
“Not until the problem of full employment of our productive resources
from the long-run, secular standpoint was upon us, were we compelled to give
serious consideration to those factors and forces in our economy which tend to
make business recoveries weak and anaemic (sic) and which tend to prolong and
deepen the course of depressions. This is the essence of secular stagnation-sick
recoveries which die in their infancy and depressions which feed on them-selves
and leave a hard and seemingly immovable core of unemployment. Now the rate of
population growth must necessarily play an important role in determining the
character of the output; in other words, the composition of the flow of final
goods. Thus a rapidly growing population will demand a much larger per capita
volume of new residential building construction than will a stationary
population. A stationary population with its larger proportion of old people
may perhaps demand more personal services; and the composition of consumer
demand will have an important influence on the quantity of capital required.
The demand for housing calls for large capital outlays, while the demand for
personal services can be met without making large investment expenditures. It
is therefore not unlikely that a shift from a rapidly growing population to a
stationary or declining one may so alter the composition of the final flow of
consumption goods that the ratio of capital to output as a whole will tend to
decline.”
The argument
that anemic population growth causes “secular stagnation” in the US (Hansen
1938, 1939, 1941) is as misplaced currently as in the late 1930s (for early
dissent see Simons 1942). This is merely another case of theory without reality
with dubious policy proposals.
Inferior performance
of the US economy and labor markets, during
cyclical slow growth not secular
stagnation, is the critical current issue of analysis and policy design.
Chart I-20, US, Full-time Employed, Thousands, NSA, 2001-2020
Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Chart I-20A provides
the noninstitutional civilian population of the United States from 2001 to
2020. There is clear trend of increase of the population while the number of
full-time jobs collapsed after 2008 with insufficient recovery as shown in the
preceding Chart I-20.
Chart I-20A, US, Noninstitutional Civilian Population, Thousands,
2001-2020
Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Chart
I-20B provides number of full-time jobs in the US from 1968 to 2020. There were
multiple recessions followed by expansions without contraction of full-time
jobs and without recovery as during the period after 2008. The problem is
specific of the current cycle and not secular.
Chart I-20B, US, Full-time Employed, Thousands, NSA,
1968-2020
Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Chart
I-20C provides the noninstitutional civilian population of the United States
from 1968 to 2020. Population expanded at a relatively constant rate of
increase with the assurance of creation of full-time jobs that has been broken
since 2008.
Chart I-20C, US, Noninstitutional Civilian Population, Thousands,
1968-2020
Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Table EMP provides
the comparison between the labor market in the current whole cycle from 2007 to
2019 and the whole cycle from 1979 to 1989. In the entire cycle from 2007 to
2019, the number employed increased 11.491 million, full-time employed
increased 9.506 million, part-time for economic reasons increased 0.006 million
and population increased 27.308 million. The number employed increased 7.9
percent, full-time employed increased 7.9 percent, part-time for economic
reasons increased 0.1 percent and population increased 11.8 percent. There is
sharp contrast with the contractions of the 1980s and with most economic
history of the United States. In the whole cycle from 1979 to 1989, the number
employed increased 18.518 million, full-time employed increased 14.715 million,
part-time for economic reasons increased 1.317 million and population increased
21.530 million. In the entire cycle from 1979 to 1989, the number employed
increased 18.7 percent, full-time employed increased 17.8 percent, part-time
for economic reasons increased 36.8 percent and population increased 13.1
percent. The difference between the 1980s and the current cycle after 2007 is
in the high rate of growth after the contraction that maintained trend growth
around 3.0 percent for the entire cycle and per capital growth at 2.0 percent.
The evident fact is that current weakness in labor markets originates in cyclical
slow growth and not in imaginary secular stagnation.
Table EMP, US,
Annual Level of Employed, Full-Time Employed, Employed Part-Time for Economic
Reasons and Noninstitutional Civilian Population, Millions
|
|
Employed |
Full-Time
Employed |
Part Time
Economic Reasons |
Noninstitutional
Civilian Population |
|
2000s |
|
|
|
|
|
2000 |
136.891 |
113.846 |
3.227 |
212.577 |
|
2001 |
136.933 |
113.573 |
3.715 |
215.092 |
|
2002 |
136.485 |
112.700 |
4.213 |
217.570 |
|
2003 |
137.736 |
113.324 |
4.701 |
221.168 |
|
2004 |
139.252 |
114.518 |
4.567 |
223.357 |
|
2005 |
141.730 |
117.016 |
4.350 |
226.082 |
|
2006 |
144.427 |
119.688 |
4.162 |
228.815 |
|
2007 |
146.047 |
121.091 |
4.401 |
231.867 |
|
2008 |
145.362 |
120.030 |
5.875 |
233.788 |
|
2009 |
139.877 |
112.634 |
8.913 |
235.801 |
|
2010 |
139.064 |
111.714 |
8.874 |
237.830 |
|
2011 |
139.869 |
112.556 |
8.560 |
239.618 |
|
2012 |
142.469 |
114.809 |
8.122 |
243.284 |
|
2013 |
143.929 |
116.314 |
7.935 |
245.679 |
|
2014 |
146.305 |
118.718 |
7.213 |
247.947 |
|
2015 |
148.834 |
121.492 |
6.371 |
250.801 |
|
2016 |
151.436 |
123.761 |
5.943 |
253.538 |
|
2017 |
153.337 |
125.967 |
5.250 |
255.079 |
|
2018 |
155.761 |
128.572 |
4.778 |
257.791 |
|
2019 |
157.538 |
130.597 |
4.407 |
259.175 |
|
∆2007-2019 |
11.491 |
9.506 |
0.006 |
27.308 |
|
∆% 2007-2019 |
7.9 |
7.9 |
0.1 |
11.8 |
|
1980s |
|
|
|
|
|
1979 |
98.824 |
82.654 |
3.577 |
164.863 |
|
1980 |
99.303 |
82.562 |
4.321 |
167.745 |
|
1981 |
100.397 |
83.243 |
4.768 |
170.130 |
|
1982 |
99.526 |
81.421 |
6.170 |
172.271 |
|
1983 |
100.834 |
82.322 |
6.266 |
174.215 |
|
1984 |
105.005 |
86.544 |
5.744 |
176.383 |
|
1985 |
107.150 |
88.534 |
5.590 |
178.206 |
|
1986 |
109.597 |
90.529 |
5.588 |
180.587 |
|
1987 |
112.440 |
92.957 |
5.401 |
182.753 |
|
1988 |
114.968 |
95.214 |
5.206 |
184.613 |
|
1989 |
117.342 |
97.369 |
4.894 |
186.393 |
|
∆1979-1989 |
18.518 |
14.715 |
1.317 |
21.530 |
|
∆% 1979-1989 |
18.7 |
17.8 |
36.8 |
13.1 |
Source: Bureau
of Labor Statistics
The
total noninstitutional civilian population (ICP) continued to increase during
and after the global recession. There is the same disastrous labor market with
decline for all in employment (EMP), civilian labor force (CLF), civilian labor
force participation rate (CLFP) and employment population ratio (EPOP). There
are only increases for unemployment (UNE)
and unemployment rate (UNER). The application of the theory of secular
stagnation to the US economy and labor markets is void of reality in the form
of key facts, which are best explained by accentuated cyclic factors analyzed
by Lazear and Spletzer (2012JHJul22).
Table I-9A
provides percentage change of real GDP in the United States in the 1930s, 1980s
and 2000s. The recession in 1981-1982 is quite similar on its own to the
2007-2009 recession. In contrast, during the Great Depression in the four years
of 1930 to 1933, GDP in constant dollars fell 26.3 percent cumulatively and
fell 45.3 percent in current dollars (Pelaez and Pelaez, Financial Regulation
after the Global Recession (2009a), 150-2, Pelaez and Pelaez, Globalization
and the State, Vol. II (2009b), 205-7 and revisions in https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). Data are
available for the 1930s only on a yearly basis. US GDP fell 4.8 percent in the
two recessions (1) from IQ1980 to IIIQ1980 and (2) from III1981 to IVQ1982 and
4.0 percent cumulatively in the recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. It is
instructive to compare the first years of the expansions in the 1980s and the
current expansion. GDP grew at 4.6 percent in 1983, 7.2 percent in 1984, 4.2
percent in 1985, 3.5 percent in 1986, 3.5 percent in 1987, 4.2 percent in 1988
and 3.7 percent in 1989. In contrast, GDP grew 2.6 percent in 2010, 1.6 percent
in 2011, 2.2 percent in 2012, 1.8 percent in 2013, 2.5 percent in 2014 and 3.1
percent in 2015. GDP grew 1.7 percent in 2016 and 2.3 percent in 2017. GDP grew
3.0 percent in 2018 and 2.2 percent in 2019. Actual annual equivalent GDP
growth in the thirty-four quarters from IQ2012 to IIQ2020 is 1.2 percent and
minus 9.5 percent in the four quarters ending in IIQ2020. GDP grew at 4.2
percent in 1985, 3.5 percent in 1986, 3.5 percent in 1987, 4.2 percent in 1988
and 3.7 percent in 1989. The forecasts of the central tendency of participants
of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are in the range of minus 7.6 to
minus 5.5 percent in 2020 (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20200610.pdf) with less
reliable forecast of 4.5 to 6.0 percent in 2021 (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20200610.pdf). Growth of
GDP in the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2020 has been at average 1.2 percent
in annual equivalent with sharp contraction at 31.7 percent SAAR in IIQ2020 in
the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.
Table I-9A, US,
Percentage Change of GDP in the 1930s, 1980s and 2000s, ∆%
|
Year |
GDP ∆% |
Year |
GDP ∆% |
Year |
GDP ∆% |
|
1930 |
-8.5 |
1980 |
-0.3 |
2000 |
4.1 |
|
1931 |
-6.4 |
1981 |
2.5 |
2001 |
1.0 |
|
1932 |
-12.9 |
1982 |
-1.8 |
2002 |
1.7 |
|
1933 |
-1.2 |
1983 |
4.6 |
2003 |
2.9 |
|
1934 |
10.8 |
1984 |
7.2 |
2004 |
3.8 |
|
1935 |
8.9 |
1985 |
4.2 |
2005 |
3.5 |
|
1936 |
12.9 |
1986 |
3.5 |
2006 |
2.9 |
|
1937 |
5.1 |
1987 |
3.5 |
2007 |
1.9 |
|
1938 |
-3.3 |
1988 |
4.2 |
2008 |
-0.1 |
|
1939 |
8.0 |
1989 |
3.7 |
2009 |
-2.5 |
|
1940 |
8.8 |
1990 |
1.9 |
2010 |
2.6 |
|
1941 |
17.7 |
1991 |
-0.1 |
2011 |
1.6 |
|
1942 |
18.9 |
1992 |
3.5 |
2012 |
2.2 |
|
1943 |
17.0 |
1993 |
2.8 |
2013 |
1.8 |
|
1944 |
8.0 |
1994 |
4.0 |
2014 |
2.5 |
|
1945 |
-1.0 |
1995 |
2.7 |
2015 |
3.1 |
|
1946 |
-11.6 |
1996 |
3.8 |
2016 |
1.7 |
|
1947 |
-1.1 |
1997 |
4.4 |
2017 |
2.3 |
|
1948 |
4.1 |
1998 |
4.5 |
2018 |
3.0 |
|
1949 |
-0.6 |
1999 |
4.8 |
2019 |
2.2 |
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm
Characteristics
of the four cyclical contractions are in Table I-9B with the first column
showing the number of quarters of contraction; the second column the cumulative
percentage contraction; and the final column the average quarterly rate of
contraction. There were two contractions from IQ1980 to IIIQ1980 and from
IIIQ1981 to IVQ1982 separated by three quarters of expansion. The drop of
output combining the declines in these two contractions is 4.8 percent, which
is almost equal to the decline of 4.0 percent in the contraction from IVQ2007
to IIQ2009. In contrast, during the Great Depression in the four years of 1930
to 1933, GDP in constant dollars fell 26.3 percent cumulatively and fell 45.3
percent in current dollars (Pelaez and Pelaez, Financial Regulation after
the Global Recession (2009a), 150-2, Pelaez and Pelaez, Globalization
and the State, Vol. II (2009b), 205-7 and revisions in https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm).
The comparison of the global recession after 2007 with the Great Depression is
entirely misleading.
Table I-9B, US,
Number of Quarters, GDP Cumulative Percentage Contraction and Average
Percentage Annual Equivalent Rate in Cyclical Contractions
|
|
Number of
Quarters |
Cumulative
Percentage Contraction |
Average
Percentage Rate |
|
IIQ1953 to
IIQ1954 |
3 |
-2.4 |
-0.8 |
|
IIIQ1957 to
IIQ1958 |
3 |
-3.0 |
-1.0 |
|
IVQ1973 to
IQ1975 |
5 |
-3.1 |
-0.6 |
|
IQ1980 to
IIIQ1980 |
2 |
-2.2 |
-1.1 |
|
IIIQ1981 to
IVQ1982 |
4 |
-2.6 |
-0.65 |
|
IVQ2007 to
IIQ2009 |
6 |
-4.0 |
-0.7 |
Sources:
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm
Table I-9C
shows the mediocre average annual equivalent growth rate of 1.2 percent of the
US economy in the forty-four quarters of the current cyclical expansion from
IIIQ2009 to IIQ2020. There is sharp contraction in IIQ2020 at SAAR of minus
31.7 percent in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high
in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. In sharp contrast, the average growth rate of
GDP was:
- 5.7 percent in the first thirteen
quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1986
- 5.3 percent in the first fifteen quarters
of expansion from IQ1983 to IIIQ1986
- 5.1 percent in the first sixteen quarters
of expansion from IQ1983 to IVQ1986
- 5.0 percent in the first seventeen
quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1987
- 5.0 percent in the first eighteen
quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IIQ1987
- 4.9 percent in the first nineteen
quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IIIQ1987
- 5.0 percent in the first twenty quarters
of expansion from IQ1983 to IVQ1987
- 4.9 percent in the first twenty-first
quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1988
- 4.9 percent in the first twenty-two
quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IIQ1988
- 4.8 percent in the first twenty-three
quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IIIQ1988
- 4.8 percent in the first twenty-four
quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IVQ1988
- 4.8 percent in the first twenty-five
quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1989
- 4.7 percent in the first twenty-six
quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IIQ1989
- 4.6 percent in the first twenty-seven
quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IIIQ1989
- 4.5 percent in the first twenty-eight
quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IVQ1989
- 4.5 percent in the first twenty-nine
quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1990
- 4.4 percent in the first thirty quarters
of expansion from IQ1983 to IIQ1990
- 4.3 percent in the first thirty-one
quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IIIQ1990
- 4.0 percent in the first thirty-two
quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IVQ1990
- 3.8 percent in the first thirty-three
quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1991
- 3.8 percent in the first thirty-four quarters of
expansion from IQ1983 to IIQ1991
- 3.8 percent in the first thirty-five quarters of
expansion from IQ1983 to IIIQ1991
- 3.7 percent in the thirty-six quarters of expansion
from IQ1983 to IVQ1991
- 3.7 percent in the thirty-seven quarters of expansion
from IQ1983 to IQ1992
- 3.7 percent in the thirty-eight quarters of expansion
from IQ1983 to IIQ1992
- 3.7 percent in the thirty-nine quarters of expansion
from IQ1983 to IIIQ1992
- 3.8 percent in the forty quarters of expansion from
IQ1983 to IVQ1992
- 3.7 percent in the forty-one quarters from IQ1983 to
IQ1993
- 3.6 percent in the forty-two quarters from IQ1983 to
IIQ1993
- 3.6 percent in the forty-three quarters from IQ1983 to
IIIQ1993
- 3.7 percent in the forty-four quarters from IQ1983 to
IVQ1993
The line
“average first four quarters in four expansions” provides the average growth
rate of 7.7 percent with 7.8 percent from IIIQ1954 to IIQ1955, 9.2 percent from
IIIQ1958 to IIQ1959, 6.1 percent from IIIQ1975 to IIQ1976 and 7.9 percent from
IQ1983 to IVQ1983. The United States missed this opportunity of high growth in
the initial phase of recovery. BEA data show the US economy in standstill
relative to historical experience with annual growth of 2.6 percent in 2010 decelerating
to 1.6 percent annual growth in 2011, 2.2 percent in 2012, 1.8 percent in 2013,
2.5 percent in 2014, 3.1 percent in 2015, 1.7 percent in 2016, 2.3 percent in
2017, 3.0 percent in 2018 and 2.2 percent in 2019 (http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). The
expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1986 was at the average annual growth rate of 5.7
percent, 5.1 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1986, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to
IIIQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to
IQ1988, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to
IIIQ1988. 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to
IQ1989, 4.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1989, 4.6 percent from IQ1983 to
IIIQ1989. 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1989, 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to
IQ1990, 4.4 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1990, 4.3 percent from IQ1983 to
IIIQ1990. 4.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1990. 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to
IQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to
IIIQ1991. 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to
IQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to
IIIQ1992, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to
IQ1993. 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1993. 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to
IIIQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1993 and at 7.9 percent from IQ1983 to
IVQ1983. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dates a contraction of
the US from IQ1990 (Jul) to IQ1991 (Mar) (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html). The
expansion lasted until another contraction beginning in IQ2001 (Mar). US GDP
contracted 1.3 percent from the pre-recession peak of $8983.9 billion of
chained 2009 dollars in IIIQ1990 to the trough of $8865.6 billion in IQ1991 (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). GDP grew 2.8
percent in the first four quarters of the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010. GDP growth
in the thirty-four quarters from IQ2012 to IIQ2020 accumulated to 8.0 percent.
This growth is equivalent to 0.9 percent per year, obtained by dividing GDP in
IIQ2020 of $17,282.2 billion by GDP in IVQ2011 of $16,004.1 billion and
compounding by 4/34: {[($17,282.2/$16,004.1)4/34 -1]100 = 0.9
percent}.
Table I-9C, US,
Number of Quarters, Cumulative Growth and Average Annual Equivalent Growth Rate
in Cyclical Expansions
|
|
Number |
Cumulative
Growth ∆% |
Average
Annual Equivalent Growth Rate |
|
IIIQ 1954 to
IQ1957 |
11 |
12.8 |
4.5 |
|
First Four
Quarters IIIQ1954 to IIQ1955 |
4 |
7.8 |
|
|
IIQ1958 to
IIQ1959 |
5 |
10.0 |
7.9 |
|
First Four
Quarters IIIQ1958 to
IIQ1959 |
4 |
9.2 |
|
|
IIQ1975 to
IVQ1976 |
8 |
8.3 |
4.1 |
|
First Four
Quarters IIIQ1975 to IIQ1976 |
4 |
6.1 |
|
|
IQ1983-IQ1986
IQ1983-IIIQ1986
IQ1983-IVQ1986 IQ1983-IQ1987
IQ1983-IIQ1987 IQ1983 to
IIIQ1987 IQ1983 to
IVQ1987 IQ1983 to
IQ1988 IQ1983 to
IIQ1988 IQ1983 to
IIIQ1988 IQ1983 to
IVQ1988 IQ1983 to
IQ1989 IQ1983 to
IIQ1989 IQ1983 to
IIIQ1989 IQ1983 to IVQ1989 IQ1983 to
IQ1990 IQ1983 to
IIQ1990 IQ1983 to
IIIQ1990 IQ1983 to
IVQ1990 IQ1983 to
IQ1991 IQ1983 to
IIQ1991 IQ1983 to
IIIQ1991 IQ1983 to
IVQ1991 IQ1983 to
IQ1992 IQ1983 to
IIQ1992 IQ1983 to
IIIQ1992 IQ1983 to
IVQ1992 IQ1983 to
IQ1993 IQ1983 to
IIQ1993 IQ1983 to
IIIQ1993 IQ1983 to
IVQ1993 |
13 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 |
19.8 21.5 22.1 23.0 24.4 25.4 27.6 28.3 29.9 30.7 32.5 33.8 34.8 35.8 36.1 37.6 38.1 38.2 36.9 36.3 37.3 38.0 38.5 40.2 41.7 43.1 44.6 44.8 45.7 46.4 48.3 |
5.7 5.3 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.7 |
|
First Four
Quarters IQ1983 to IVQ1983 |
4 |
7.9 |
|
|
Average First
Four Quarters in Four Expansions* |
|
7.7 |
|
|
IIIQ2009 to
IIQ2020 |
44 |
14.2 |
1.2 |
|
First Four
Quarters IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010 |
|
2.8 |
|
*First Four
Quarters: 7.8% IIIQ1954-IIQ1955; 9.2% IIIQ1958-IIQ1959; 6.1% IIIQ1975-IQ1976;
7.8% IQ1983-IVQ1983
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm
Table Summary
Total, US, Total Noninstitutional Civilian Population, Full-time Employment,
Employment, Civilian Labor Force, Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate,
Employment Population Ratio, Unemployment, NSA, Millions and Percent
|
|
ICP |
FTE |
EMP |
CLF |
CLFP |
EPOP |
UNE |
|
2006 |
228.8 |
119.7 |
144.4 |
151.4 |
66.2 |
63.1 |
7.0 |
|
2009 |
235.8 |
112.6 |
139.9 |
154.1 |
65.4 |
59.3 |
14.3 |
|
2012 |
243.3 |
114.8 |
142.5 |
155.0 |
63.7 |
58.6 |
12.5 |
|
2013 |
245.7 |
116.3 |
143.9 |
155.4 |
63.2 |
58.6 |
11.5 |
|
2014 |
247.9 |
118.7 |
146.3 |
155.9 |
62.9 |
59.0 |
9.6 |
|
2015 |
250.8 |
121.5 |
148.8 |
157.1 |
62.7 |
59.3 |
8.3 |
|
2016 |
253.5 |
123.8 |
151.4 |
159.2 |
62.8 |
59.7 |
7.8 |
|
2017 |
255.1 |
126.0 |
153.3 |
160.3 |
62.9 |
60.1 |
7.0 |
|
2018 |
257.8 |
128.6 |
155.8 |
162.1 |
62.9 |
60.4 |
6.3 |
|
2019 |
259.2 |
130.6 |
157.5 |
163.5 |
63.1 |
60.8 |
6.0 |
|
12/07 |
233.2 |
121.0 |
146.3 |
153.7 |
65.9 |
62.8 |
7.4 |
|
9/09 |
236.3 |
112.0 |
139.1 |
153.6 |
65.0 |
58.9 |
14.5 |
|
8/20 |
260.6 |
123.6 |
147.2 |
161.0 |
61.8 |
56.5 |
13.7 |
ICP: Total
Noninstitutional Civilian Population; FTE: Full-time Employment Level, EMP:
Total Employment Level; CLF: Civilian Labor Force; CLFP: Civilian Labor Force
Participation Rate; EPOP: Employment Population Ratio; UNE: Unemployment
Source: Bureau
of Labor Statistics
The
same situation is present in the labor market for young people in ages 16 to 24
years with data in Table Summary Youth. The youth noninstitutional civilian
population (ICP) continued to increase during and after the global recession.
There is the same disastrous labor market with decline for young people in
employment (EMP), civilian labor force (CLF), civilian labor force
participation rate (CLFP) and employment population ratio (EPOP). There are
only increases for unemployment of young people (UNE) and youth unemployment
rate (UNER). If aging were a factor of secular stagnation, growth of population
of young people would attract a premium in remuneration in labor markets. The
sad fact is that young people are also facing tough labor markets. The
application of the theory of secular stagnation to the US economy and labor
markets is void of reality in the form of key facts, which are best explained
by accentuated cyclic factors analyzed by Lazear and Spletzer (2012JHJul22).
|
|
ICP |
EMP |
CLF |
CLFP |
EPOP |
UNE |
UNER |
|
2006 |
36.9 |
20.0 |
22.4 |
60.6 |
54.2 |
2.4 |
10.5 |
|
2009 |
37.6 |
17.6 |
21.4 |
56.9 |
46.9 |
3.8 |
17.6 |
|
2012 |
38.8 |
17.8 |
21.3 |
54.9 |
46.0 |
3.5 |
16.2 |
|
2013 |
38.8 |
18.1 |
21.4 |
55.0 |
46.5 |
3.3 |
15.5 |
|
2014 |
38.7 |
18.4 |
21.3 |
55.0 |
47.6 |
2.9 |
13.4 |
|
2015 |
38.6 |
18.8 |
21.2 |
55.0 |
48.6 |
2.5 |
11.6 |
|
2016 |
38.4 |
19.0 |
21.2 |
55.2 |
49.4 |
2.2 |
10.4 |
|
2017 |
38.2 |
19.2 |
21.2 |
55.5 |
50.3 |
2.0 |
9.2 |
|
2018 |
38.0 |
19.2 |
21.0 |
55.2 |
50.5 |
1.8 |
8.6 |
|
2019 |
37.7 |
19.3 |
21.1 |
55.9 |
51.2 |
1.8 |
8.4 |
|
12/07 |
37.5 |
19.4 |
21.7 |
57.8 |
51.6 |
2.3 |
10.7 |
|
9/09 |
37.6 |
17.0 |
20.7 |
55.2 |
45.1 |
3.8 |
18.2 |
|
8/20 |
37.5 |
17.6 |
20.5 |
54.8 |
46.9 |
2.9 |
14.4 |
ICP: Youth Noninstitutional Civilian Population; EMP: Youth
Employment Level; CLF: Youth Civilian Labor Force; CLFP: Youth Civilian Labor
Force Participation Rate; EPOP: Youth Employment Population Ratio; UNE:
Unemployment; UNER: Youth Unemployment Rate
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009,
2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020.
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