New Nonfarm Hires of 6.343 Million in Jul 2020, New 2.421 Million Full-Time Jobs Created in August 2020, Recovery Without Hiring in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth Underperforming Below Trend Worldwide, Fifteen Million Fewer Full-Time Jobs In the Global Recession, with Output in the US Reaching a High in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the Lockdown of Economic Activity in the COVID-19 Event, Youth and Middle-Age Unemployment, United States Inflation, World Cyclical Slow Growth, and Government Intervention in Globalization: Part V

 

Carlos M. Pelaez

 

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020.

 

I Recovery without Hiring

IA1 Hiring Collapse

IA2 Labor Underutilization

            ICA3 Fifteen Million Fewer Full-time Jobs

IA4 Theory and Reality of Cyclical Slow Growth Not Secular Stagnation: Youth and Middle-Age Unemployment

IC United States Inflation

IC Long-term US Inflation

ID Current US Inflation

III World Financial Turbulence

IV Global Inflation

V World Economic Slowdown

VA United States

VB Japan

VC China

VD Euro Area

VE Germany

VF France

VG Italy

VH United Kingdom

VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets

VII Economic Indicators

VIII Interest Rates

IX Conclusion

References

Appendixes

Appendix I The Great Inflation

IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies

IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact

IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort

IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis

 

Headline and core producer price indexes are in Table I-6. The headline PPI SA changed 0.0 percent in Aug 2020 and decreased 1.5 percent NSA in the 12 months ending in Aug 2020. The core PPI SA changed 0.2 percent in Aug 2020 and increased 1.3 percent in 12 months. Analysis of annual equivalent rates of change shows inflation waves similar to those worldwide. In the first wave, the absence of risk aversion from the sovereign risk crisis in Europe motivated the carry trade from zero interest rates into commodity futures that caused the annual equivalent rate of 11.1 percent in the headline PPI in Jan-Apr 2011 and 3.7 percent in the core PPI. In the second wave, commodity futures prices collapsed in Jun 2011 with the return of risk aversion originating in the sovereign risk crisis of Europe. The annual equivalent rate of headline PPI inflation collapsed to 0.6 percent in May-Jun 2011 but the core annual equivalent inflation rate was higher at 2.4 percent. In the third wave, headline PPI inflation resuscitated with annual equivalent at 4.1 percent in Jul-Sep 2011 and core PPI inflation at 3.2 percent. Core PPI inflation was persistent throughout 2011, jumping from annual equivalent at 2.0 percent in the first three months of 2010 to 3.0 percent in 12 months ending in Dec 2011. Unconventional monetary policy is based on the proposition that core rates reflect more fundamental inflation and are thus better predictors of the future. In practice, the relation of core and headline inflation is as difficult to predict as future inflation (see IIID Supply Shocks in https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2011/05/slowing-growth-global-inflation-great.html). In the fourth wave, risk aversion originating in the lack of resolution of the European debt crisis caused unwinding of carry trades with annual equivalent headline PPI inflation of 0.0 percent in Oct-Dec 2011 and 2.0 percent in the core annual equivalent. In the fifth wave from Jan to Mar 2012, annual equivalent inflation was 3.2 percent for the headline index but 3.2 percent for the core index excluding food and energy. In the sixth wave, annual equivalent inflation in Apr-May 2012 during renewed risk aversion was minus 4.1 percent for the headline PPI and 1.8 percent for the core. In the seventh wave, continuing risk aversion caused reversal of carry trades into commodity exposures with annual equivalent headline inflation of minus 1.2 percent in Jun-Jul 2012 while core PPI inflation was at annual equivalent 3.7 percent. In the eighth wave, relaxed risk aversion because of the announcement of the impaired bond buying program or Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) of the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2012/html/pr120906_1.en.html) induced carry trades that drove annual equivalent inflation of producer prices of the United States at 13.4 percent in Aug-Sep 2012 and 1.2 percent in the core index. In the ninth wave, renewed risk aversion caused annual equivalent inflation of minus 2.4 percent in Oct 2012-Dec 2012 in the headline index and 1.2 percent in the core index. In the tenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was 7.4 percent in the headline index in Jan-Feb 2013 and 1.8 percent in the core index. In the eleventh wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 7.0 percent in Mar-Apr 2012 and 1.2 percent for the core index. In the twelfth wave, annual equivalent inflation returned at 2.7 percent in May-Aug 2013 and 1.2 percent in the core index. In the thirteenth wave, portfolio reallocations away from commodities and into equities reversed commodity carry trade with annual equivalent inflation of 0.8 percent in Sep-Nov 2013 in the headline PPI and 1.6 percent in the core. In the fourteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation returned at 5.7 percent annual equivalent for the headline index in Dec 2013-Feb 2014 and 3.7 percent for the core index. In the fifteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was 3.7 percent for the general PPI index in Mar 2014 and 0.0 percent for the core PPI index. In the sixteenth wave, annual equivalent headline PPI inflation increased at 0.9 percent in Apr-Jul 2014 and 1.8 percent for the core PPI. In the seventeenth wave, annual equivalent inflation in Aug-Nov 2014 was minus 2.7 percent and 1.8 percent for the core index. In the eighteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation fell at 17.6 percent for the general index in Dec 2014 to Jan 2015 and increased at 3.7 percent in the core index. In the nineteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation increased at 1.2 percent in Feb 2015 and increased at 3.7 percent for the core index. In the twentieth wave, annual equivalent producer prices increased at 4.9 percent in Mar 2015 and the core at 1.2 percent. In the twenty-first wave, producer prices fell at 8.1 percent annual equivalent in Apr 2015 while the core index increased at 1.2 percent. In the twenty-second wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 10.7 percent in May-Jun 2015 and core producer prices at 2.8 percent. In the twenty-third wave, producer prices fell at 1.2 percent in Jul 2015 and the core index increased at 2.4 percent. In the twenty-fourth wave, annual equivalent inflation fell at 7.4 percent in Aug-Oct 2015 and the core index changed at 0.0 percent annual equivalent. In the twenty-fifth wave, annual equivalent inflation was 1.2 percent in Nov 2015 with the core at 1.2 percent. In the twenty-sixth wave, the headline PPI fell at annual equivalent 6.6 percent and the core increased at 2.0 percent in Dec 2015-Feb 2016. In the twenty-seventh wave, annual equivalent inflation was 3.7 percent for the central index in Mar-May 2016 and 1.6 percent for the core. In the twenty-eighth wave, annual equivalent inflation was 8.7 percent for the headline index in Jun 2016 and 3.7 percent for the core. In the twenty-ninth wave, producer prices fell at annual equivalent 1.2 percent in Jul 2016 and core producer prices changed at 0.0 percent. In the thirtieth wave, producer prices fell at 3.5 percent annual equivalent in Aug 2016 while core producer prices increased at 1.2 percent. In the thirty-first wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 6.2 percent in Sep-Oct 2016 while core prices increased at 1.8 percent.  In the thirty-second wave, producer prices decreased at 3.5 percent annual equivalent in Nov 2016 and the core index increased at 1.2 percent. In the thirty-third wave, producer prices increased at 11.4 percent in Dec 2016 and the core index increased at 2.4 percent.  In the thirty-fourth wave, producer prices increased at 8.7 percent in Jan 2017 while the core increased at 2.4 percent. In the thirty-fifth wave, producer prices increased at 3.7 percent in Feb 2017 while the core index increased at 1.2 percent. In the thirty-sixth wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 1.2 percent in Mar 2017 while core producer prices increased at 3.7 percent. In the thirty-seventh wave, annual equivalent inflation of the headline index was at 4.9 percent in Apr 2017 and 4.9 percent for the core. In the thirty-eighth wave, producer prices fell at 9.2 percent annual equivalent in May 2017 while core producer prices changed at 0.0 percent. In the thirty-ninth wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 2.4 percent in Jun 2017 while core producer prices increased at 2.4 percent. In the fortieth wave, headline producer prices fell at 1.2 percent annual equivalent in Jul 2017 while core prices increased at 1.2 percent. In the forty-first wave, central producer prices increased at 8.7 percent annual equivalent in Aug-Sep 2017 while core prices increased at 1.2 percent. In the forty-second wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 6.8 percent in Oct-Nov 2017 while core producer prices increased at 4.3 percent. In the forty-third wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 1.2 percent in Dec 2017 while core prices changed at 0.0 percent. In the forty-fourth wave, producer prices increased at 3.7 percent annual equivalent in Jan 2018 while core producer prices changed at 1.2 percent. In the forty-fifth wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 2.4 percent in Feb 2018 while core prices increased at 1.2 percent. In the forty-sixth wave, producer prices increased at 2.4 percent annual equivalent in Mar 2018 while core prices increased at 3.7 percent. In the forty-seventh wave, producer prices fell at 3.5 percent annual equivalent in Apr 2018 while core prices increased at 2.4 percent. In the forty-eighth wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 8.7 percent in May 2018 while core prices increased at 2.4 percent. In the forty-ninth wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 1.8 percent in Jun-Jul 2018 while core prices increased at 3.0 percent. In the fiftieth wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 1.8 percent in Aug-Sep 2018 while core prices increased at 2.4 percent. In the fifty-first wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 8.7 percent in Oct 2018 while core prices increased at 2.4 percent. In the fifty-second wave, producer prices decreased at annual equivalent 7.7 percent in Nov 2018-Jan 2019 while core prices increased at 2.8 percent. In the fifty-third wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 8.3 percent in Feb-Apr 2019 while core prices increased at 1.6 percent. In the fifty-fourth wave, producer prices decreased at annual equivalent 3.0 percent in May-Jun 2019 while core prices increased at 0.6 percent. In the fifty-fifth wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 3.7 percent in Jul 2019 while core prices increased at 1.2 percent. In the fifty-sixth wave, producer prices fell at annual equivalent 2.4 percent in Aug-Sep 2019 while core prices increased at 0.6 percent. In the fifty-seventh wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 4.9 percent in Oct-Dec 2019 while core prices increased at 0.8 percent. In the fifty-eighth wave, producer prices changed at 0.0 percent annual equivalent in Jan 2020 while core prices changed at 0.0 percent. In the fifty-ninth wave, producer prices decreased at annual equivalent 20.3 percent in Feb-Apr 2020 while core prices increased at 2.0 percent. In the sixtieth wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 34.5 percent in May 2020 while core prices changed at 0.0 percent. In the sixty-first wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 2.8 percent in Jun-Aug 2020 while core prices increased at 1.6 percent. It is almost impossible to forecast PPI inflation and its relation to CPI inflation. “Inflation surprise” by monetary policy could be proposed to climb along a downward sloping Phillips curve, resulting in higher inflation but lower unemployment (see Kydland and Prescott 1977, Barro and Gordon 1983 and past comments of this blog http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2011/05/slowing-growth-global-inflation-great.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2011/04/new-economics-of-rose-garden-turned.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2011/03/is-there-second-act-of-us-great.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/06/rules-versus-discretionary-authorities.html). The architects of monetary policy would require superior inflation forecasting ability compared to forecasting naivety by everybody else. In practice, we are all naïve in forecasting inflation and other economic variables and events.

Table I-6, US, Headline and Core PPI Inflation Monthly SA and 12-Month NSA ∆%

	Finished Goods SA Month	Finished Goods NSA 12 months	Finished Core SA Month	Finished Core NSA 12 months
Aug	0.0	-1.5	0.2	1.3
Jul	0.7	-1.8	0.2	1.1
Jun	0.0	-2.2	0.0	1.1
AE Jun-Aug	2.8		1.6
May	2.5	-2.8	0.0	1.1
AE May	34.5		0.0
Apr	-3.0	-5.3	0.2	1.3
Mar	-1.7	-1.5	0.0	1.1
Feb	-0.9	1.3	0.3	1.2
AE Feb-Apr	-20.3		2.0
Jan	0.0	2.5	0.0	1.0
AE Jan	0.0		0.0
Dec 2019	0.2	1.7	0.0	1.5
Nov	0.4	1.0	0.2	1.6
Oct	0.6	-0.2	0.0	1.7
AE Oct-Dec	4.9		0.8
Sep	-0.1	-0.1	0.1	1.9
Aug	-0.3	0.3	0.0	2.0
AE Aug-Sep	-2.4		0.6
Jul	0.3	0.7	0.1	2.2
AE Jul	3.7		1.2
Jun	-0.5	0.5	0.0	2.3
May	0.0	1.3	0.1	2.5
AE May-Jun	-3.0		0.6
Apr	0.5	2.1	0.1	2.5
Mar	1.1	1.4	0.2	2.7
Feb	0.4	0.5	0.1	2.7
AE Feb-Apr	8.3		1.6
Jan	-0.6	0.4	0.4	2.9
Dec 2018	-0.6	1.3	0.1	2.6
Nov	-0.8	2.0	0.2	2.6
AE Nov-Jan	-7.7		2.8
Oct	0.7	3.7	0.2	2.5
AE Oct	8.7		2.4
Sep	0.2	3.2	0.2	2.8
Aug	0.1	3.7	0.2	2.6
AE Aug-Sep	1.8		2.4
Jul	0.1	4.3	0.3	2.4
Jun	0.2	4.1	0.2	2.1
AE Jun-Jul	1.8		3.0
May	0.7	4.1	0.2	2.1
AE May	8.7		2.4
Apr	-0.3	2.4	0.2	1.9
AE Apr	-3.5		2.4
Mar	0.2	3.0	0.3	2.0
AE Mar	2.4		3.7
Feb	0.2	2.7	0.1	2.0
AE Feb	2.4		1.2
Jan	0.3	2.9	0.1	1.8
AE Jan	3.7		1.2
Dec 2017	0.1	3.2	0.0	2.0
AE Dec	1.2		0.0
Nov	0.9	4.2	0.3	2.1
Oct	0.2	2.9	0.4	2.0
AE Oct-Nov	6.8		4.3
Sep	0.8	3.3	0.0	1.7
Aug	0.6	3.0	0.2	1.8
AE Aug-Sep	8.7		1.2
Jul	-0.1	2.1	0.1	1.8
AE Jul	-1.2		1.2
Jun	0.2	2.1	0.2	1.7
AE Jun	2.4		2.4
May	-0.8	2.8	0.0	1.9
AE May	-9.2		0.0
Apr	0.4	4.0	0.4	2.0
AE Apr	4.9		4.9
Mar	0.1	3.8	0.3	1.8
AE Mar	1.2		3.7
Feb	0.3	3.8	0.1	1.6
AE Feb	3.7		1.2
Jan	0.7	2.9	0.2	1.7
AE Jan	8.7		2.4
Dec 2016	0.9	1.9	0.2	1.7
AE Dec	11.4		2.4
Nov	-0.3	0.4	0.1	1.6
AE Nov	-3.5		1.2
Oct	0.5	0.7	0.1	1.6
Sep	0.5	-0.1	0.2	1.4
AE Sep-Oct	6.2		1.8
Aug	-0.3	-1.9	0.1	1.4
AE Aug	-3.5		1.2
Jul	-0.1	-2.0	0.0	1.2
AE Jul	-1.2		0.0
Jun	0.7	-2.0	0.3	1.5
AE Jun	8.7		3.7
May	0.5	-2.2	0.1	1.6
Apr	0.2	-1.5	0.2	1.6
Mar	0.2	-2.3	0.1	1.5
AE Mar-May	3.7		1.6
Feb	-0.7	-2.0	0.1	1.5
Jan	-0.3	-1.2	0.3	1.7
Dec 2015	-0.7	-2.7	0.1	1.8
AE Dec-Feb	-6.6		2.0
Nov	0.1	-3.3	0.1	1.7
AE Nov	1.2		1.2
Oct	-0.3	-4.0	-0.1	1.8
Sep	-1.2	-4.1	0.1	2.1
Aug	-0.4	-3.1	0.0	2.1
AE ∆% Aug-Oct	-7.4		0.0
Jul	-0.1	-2.8	0.2	2.3
AE ∆% Jul	-1.2		2.4
Jun	0.6	-2.6	0.5	2.3
May	1.1	-2.9	0.2	2.0
AE ∆% May-Jun	10.7		2.8
Apr	-0.7	-4.5	0.1	2.0
AE ∆% Apr	-8.1		1.2
Mar	0.4	-3.3	0.1	2.1
AE ∆% Mar	4.9		1.2
Feb	0.1	-3.2	0.3	1.9
AE ∆% Feb	1.2		3.7
Jan	-1.8	-3.0	0.5	1.7
Dec 2014	-1.4	-0.6	0.1	1.7
AE ∆% Dec-Jan	-17.6		3.7
Nov	-0.3	1.1	0.0	2.0
Oct	-0.3	1.8	0.3	2.2
Sep	-0.3	2.2	0.1	2.1
Aug	0.0	2.3	0.2	1.9
AE ∆% Aug-Nov	-2.7		1.8
July	0.0	2.9	0.1	1.9
Jun	0.2	2.8	0.2	1.9
May	-0.3	2.5	0.2	1.8
Apr	0.4	3.1	0.1	1.7
AE ∆% Apr-Jul	0.9		1.8
Mar	0.3	1.8	0.0	1.7
AE ∆% Mar	3.7		0.0
Feb	0.2	1.3	0.1	1.9
Jan	0.8	1.6	0.4	2.0
Dec 2013	0.4	1.4	0.4	1.6
AE ∆% Dec-Feb	5.7		3.7
Nov	0.3	0.8	0.2	1.3
Oct	0.2	0.3	0.1	1.2
Sep	-0.3	0.2	0.1	1.2
AE ∆% Sep-Nov	0.8		1.6
Aug	0.5	1.2	0.1	1.2
Jul	-0.1	2.1	0.1	1.3
Jun	0.1	2.3	0.1	1.6
May	0.4	1.6	0.1	1.7
AE ∆%  May-Aug	2.7		1.2
Apr	-0.6	0.5	0.1	1.7
Mar	-0.6	1.1	0.1	1.7
AE ∆%  Mar-Apr	-7.0		1.2
Feb	0.6	1.8	0.2	1.8
Jan	0.6	1.5	0.1	1.8
AE ∆%  Jan-Feb	7.4		1.8
Dec 2012	-0.2	1.4	0.0	2.1
Nov	-0.5	1.4	0.2	2.2
Oct	0.1	2.3	0.1	2.2
AE ∆%  Oct-Dec	-2.4		1.2
Sep	0.9	2.1	0.0	2.4
Aug	1.2	1.9	0.2	2.6
AE ∆% Aug-Sep	13.4		1.2
Jul	0.2	0.5	0.4	2.6
Jun	-0.4	0.7	0.2	2.6
AE ∆% Jun-Jul	-1.2		3.7
May	-0.6	0.6	0.1	2.7
Apr	-0.1	1.8	0.2	2.7
AE ∆% Apr-May	-4.1		1.8
Mar	0.1	2.7	0.2	2.9
Feb	0.3	3.4	0.2	3.1
Jan	0.4	4.1	0.4	3.1
AE ∆% Jan-Mar	3.2		3.2
Dec 2011	-0.1	4.7	0.2	3.0
Nov	0.3	5.7	0.1	3.0
Oct	-0.2	5.9	0.2	2.9
AE ∆% Oct-Dec	0.0		2.0
Sep	0.9	7.1	0.3	2.8
Aug	-0.3	6.6	0.2	2.7
Jul	0.4	7.2	0.3	2.7
AE ∆% Jul-Sep	4.1		3.2
Jun	-0.4	7.0	0.3	2.3
May	0.5	7.1	0.1	2.1
AE ∆%  May-Jun	0.6		2.4
Apr	0.9	6.7	0.3	2.3
Mar	0.7	5.7	0.3	2.0
Feb	1.1	5.5	0.2	1.8
Jan	0.8	3.7	0.4	1.6
AE ∆%  Jan-Apr	11.0		3.7
Dec 2010	0.9	3.8	0.2	1.4
Nov	0.4	3.4	0.0	1.2
Oct	0.8	4.3	0.0	1.6
Sep	0.3	3.9	0.2	1.6
Aug	0.6	3.3	0.1	1.3
Jul	0.1	4.1	0.1	1.5
Jun	-0.3	2.7	0.1	1.1
May	0.0	5.1	0.3	1.3
Apr	0.0	5.4	0.0	0.9
Mar	0.7	5.9	0.2	0.9
Feb	-0.7	4.1	0.1	1.0
Jan	1.0	4.5	0.2	1.0

Note: Core: excluding food and energy; AE: annual equivalent

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/ppi/data.htm

The US producer price index NSA from 2000 to 2020 is in Chart I-24. There are two episodes of decline of the PPI during recessions in 2001 and in 2008. Barsky and Kilian (2004) consider the 2001 episode as one in which real oil prices were declining when recession began. Recession and the fall of commodity prices instead of generalized deflation explain the behavior of US inflation in 2008. There is similar collapse of producer prices into 2015 as in 2009 caused by the drop of

commodity prices.

Chart I-24, US, Producer Price Index, NSA, 2000-2020

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/ppi/

Twelve-month percentage changes of the PPI NSA from 2000 to 2020 are in Chart I-25. It may be possible to forecast trends a few months in the future under adaptive expectations but turning points are almost impossible to anticipate especially when related to fluctuations of commodity prices in response to risk aversion. In a sense, monetary policy has been tied to behavior of the PPI in the negative 12-month rates in 2001 to 2003 and then again in 2009 to 2010. There is similar sharp decline of inflation into 2015 caused by the drop of commodities. Monetary policy following deflation fears caused by commodity price fluctuations would introduce significant volatility and risks in financial markets and eventually in consumption and investment.

Chart I-25, US, Producer Price Index, 12-Month Percentage Change NSA, 2000-2020

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/ppi/

The US PPI excluding food and energy from 2000 to 2020 is in Chart I-26. There is here again a smooth trend of inflation instead of prolonged deflation as in Japan.

Chart I-26, US, Producer Price Index Excluding Food and Energy, NSA, 2000-2020

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/ppi/

Twelve-month percentage changes of the producer price index excluding food and energy are in Chart I-27. Fluctuations replicate those in the headline PPI. There is an evident trend of increase of 12-month rates of core PPI inflation in 2011 but lower rates in 2012-2014. Prices rose less rapidly into 2015-2018 as during earlier fluctuations. Twelve-month rates decrease in the final segment 2019-2020.

Chart I-27, US, Producer Price Index Excluding Food and Energy, NSA, 12-Month Percentage Changes, 2000-2020

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/ppi/

The US producer price index of energy goods from 2000 to 2020 is in Chart I-28. There is a clear upward trend with fluctuations, which would not occur under persistent deflation.

Chart I-28, US, Producer Price Index Finished Energy Goods, NSA, 2000-2020

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/ppi/

Chart I-29 provides 12-month percentage changes of the producer price index of energy goods from 2000 to 2020. Barsky and Killian (2004) relate the episode of declining prices of energy goods in 2001 to 2002 to the analysis of decline of real oil prices. Interest rates dropping to zero during the global recession in 2008 induced carry trades that explain the rise of the PPI of energy goods toward 30 percent. Bouts of risk aversion with policy interest rates held close to zero explain the fluctuations in the 12-month rates of the PPI of energy goods in the expansion phase of the economy. Symmetric inflation targets induce significant instability in inflation and interest rates with adverse effects on financial markets and the overall economy.

Chart I-29, US, Producer Price Index Finished Energy Goods, 12-Month Percentage Change, NSA, 2000-2020

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/ppi/

Effective with the January 2014 Producer Price Index (PPI) data release in February 2014 (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_02192014.pdf  8), “BLS transitions from the Stage of Processing (SOP) to the Final Demand-Intermediate Demand (FD-ID) aggregation system. This shift results in significant changes to the PPI news release, as well as other documents available from PPI. The transition to the FD-ID system is the culmination of a long-standing PPI objective to improve the current SOP aggregation system by incorporating PPIs for services, construction, government purchases, and exports. In comparison to the SOP system, the FD-ID system more than doubles PPI coverage of the United States economy to over 75 percent of in-scope domestic production. The FD-ID system was introduced as a set of experimental indexes in January 2011. Nearly all new FD-ID goods, services, and construction indexes provide historical data back to either November 2009 or April 2010, while the indexes for goods that correspond with the historical SOP indexes go back to the 1970s or earlier.”

Headline and core final demand producer price indexes are in Table I-6B. The headline FD PPI SA increased 0.3 percent in Aug 2020 and decreased 0.2 percent NSA in the 12 months ending in Aug 2020. The core FD PPI SA increased 0.4 percent in Aug 2020 and increased 0.6 percent in 12 months. Analysis of annual equivalent rates of change shows inflation waves similar to those worldwide. In the first wave, the absence of risk aversion from the sovereign risk crisis in Europe motivated the carry trade from zero interest rates into commodity futures that caused the average equivalent rate of 7.4 percent in the headline FD PPI in Jan-Apr 2011 and 4.6 percent in the core FD PPI. In the second wave, commodity futures prices collapsed in Jun 2011 with the return of risk aversion originating in the sovereign risk crisis of Europe. The annual equivalent rate of headline FD PPI inflation collapsed to 2.4 percent in May-Jun 2011 but the core annual equivalent inflation rate was at 2.4 percent. In the third wave, headline FD PPI inflation resuscitated with annual equivalent at 3.2 percent in Jul-Sep 2011 and core PPI inflation at 3.2 percent. Core FD PPI inflation was persistent throughout 2011, from annual equivalent at 4.6 percent in the first four months of 2011 to 2.6 percent in 12 months ending in Dec 2011. Unconventional monetary policy is based on the proposition that core rates reflect more fundamental inflation and are thus better predictors of the future. In practice, the relation of core and headline inflation is as difficult to predict as future inflation (see IIID Supply Shocks in https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2011/05/slowing-growth-global-inflation-great.html). In the fourth wave, risk aversion originating in the lack of resolution of the European debt crisis caused unwinding of carry trades with annual equivalent headline FD PPI inflation of minus 0.8 percent in Oct-Dec 2011 and minus 0.4 percent in the core annual equivalent. In the fifth wave from Jan to Mar 2012, annual equivalent inflation was 3.7 percent for the headline index and 3.7 percent for the core index excluding food and energy. In the sixth wave, annual equivalent inflation in Apr-May 2012 during renewed risk aversion was 1.2 percent for the headline FD PPI and 3.0 percent for the core. In the seventh wave, continuing risk aversion caused reversal of carry trades into commodity exposures with annual equivalent headline inflation of minus 2.4 percent in Jun-Jul 2012 while core FD PPI inflation was at annual equivalent minus 1.2 percent. In the eighth wave, relaxed risk aversion because of the announcement of the impaired bond buying program or Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) of the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2012/html/pr120906_1.en.html) induced carry trades that drove annual equivalent inflation of final demand producer prices of the United States at 6.2 percent in Aug-Sep 2012 and 1.2 percent in the core index. In the ninth wave, renewed risk aversion caused annual equivalent inflation of 0.8 percent in Oct 2011-Dec 2012 in the headline index and 2.8 percent in the core index. In the tenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was 3.0 percent in the headline index in Jan-Feb 2013 and 0.6 percent in the core index. In the eleventh wave, annual equivalent price change was minus 1.2 percent in Mar-Apr 2013 and 2.4 percent for the core index. In the twelfth wave, annual equivalent inflation returned at 1.8 percent in May-Aug 2013 and 1.6 percent in the core index. In the thirteenth wave, portfolio reallocations away from commodities and into equities reversed commodity carry trade with annual equivalent inflation of 1.6 percent in Sep-Nov 2013 in the headline FD PPI and 2.0 percent in the core. In the fourteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was 2.4 percent annual equivalent for the headline index in Dec 2013-Feb 2014 and 1.6 percent for the core index. In the fifteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation increased to 2.4 percent in the headline FD PPI and 2.7 percent in the core in Mar-Jul 2014. In the sixteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 1.2 percent for the headline FD index and minus 0.6 percent for the core FD index in Aug-Sep 2014. In the seventeenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was 2.4 percent for the headline FD and 4.9 percent for the core FD in Oct 2014. In the eighteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 3.0 percent for the headline FDI and 1.2 percent for the core in Nov-Dec 2014. In the nineteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 6.4 percent for the general index and minus 2.4 percent for the core in Jan-Feb 2015. In the twentieth wave, annual equivalent inflation was 2.4 percent for the general index in Mar 2015 and 1.2 percent for the core. In the twenty-first wave, final demand prices decreased at annual equivalent 2.4 percent for the headline index in Apr 2015 and changed at 0.0 percent for the core index.  In the twenty-second wave, annual equivalent inflation returned at 3.7 percent for the headline index in May-Jul 2015 and at 2.4 percent for the core index. In the twenty-third wave, the headline final demand index fell at 2.4 percent annual equivalent in Aug 2015 and the core changed at 0.0 percent annual equivalent. In the twenty-fourth wave, FD prices fell at annual equivalent 4.1 percent in Sep-Oct 2015. In the twenty-fifth wave, FD prices increased at 1.2 percent annual equivalent in Nov 2015. In the twenty-sixth wave, FD prices decreased at 1.2 percent annual equivalent in Dec 2015. In the twenty-seventh wave, FD prices increased at 4.9 percent annual equivalent in Jan 2016 and the core FD increased at 6.2 percent. In the twenty-eighth wave, FD prices fell at annual equivalent 1.8 percent in Feb-Mar 2016 while the core decreased at 0.6 percent. In the twenty-ninth wave, FD prices increased at 3.7 percent annual equivalent in Apr-Jun 2016 and core FD increased at 2.4 percent. In the thirtieth wave, final demand prices decreased at 1.2 percent in annual equivalent in Jul 2016 while the core decreased at 1.2 percent. In the thirty-first wave, final demand prices decreased at annual equivalent 2.4 percent in Aug 2016 and the core changed at 0.0 percent. In the thirty-second wave, final demand prices increased at annual equivalent 4.9 percent in Sep 2016 while core final demand increased at 2.4 percent. In the thirty-third wave, final demand prices increased at 2.4 percent and core final demand prices increased at 1.2 percent in Oct 2016. In the thirty-fourth wave, final demand producer prices increased at 3.0 percent annual equivalent in Nov-Dec 2016 while the core increased at 3.0 percent.  In the thirty-fifth wave, final demand producer prices increased at 4.9 percent in Jan 2017 while core prices increased at 3.7 percent. In the thirty-sixth wave, final demand prices changed at 0.0 percent annual equivalent in Feb 2017 while the core index decreased at 1.2 percent. In the thirty-seventh wave, final demand prices increased at 2.4 percent annual equivalent in Mar 2017 while the core index increased at 2.4 percent. In the thirty-eighth wave, final demand prices increased at 4.9 percent in Apr 2017 while the core increased at 4.9 percent. In the thirty-ninth wave, final demand prices increased at annual equivalent 0.4 percent in May-Jun 2017 while core prices increased at 1.8 percent. In the fortieth wave, final demand prices increased at 1.2 percent annual equivalent in Jul 2017 while core prices increased at 2.4 percent. In the forty-first wave, final demand prices increased at 4.9 percent annual equivalent in Aug-Nov 2017 while core prices increased at 4.1 percent. In the forty-second wave, final demand prices changed at annual equivalent 0.0 percent in Dec 2017 while core prices changed at 0.0 percent. In the forty-third wave, final demand prices increased at annual equivalent 4.1 percent in Jan-Mar 2018 while core prices increased at 4.1 percent. In the forty-fourth wave, final demand prices increased at 3.2 percent in Apr-Jun 2018 while core prices increased at 3.2 percent. In the forty-fifth wave, final demand prices increased at 1.2 percent in Jul-Aug 2018 while core prices increased at 1.2 percent. In the forty-sixth wave, final demand prices increased at 5.5 percent annual equivalent in Sep-Oct 2018 while core prices increased at 4.3 percent. In the forty-seventh wave, final demand prices decreased at 1.2 percent annual equivalent in Nov 2018 while core prices increased at 2.4 percent. In the forty-eighth wave, final demand prices decreased at 2.4 percent annual equivalent in Dec 2018-Jan 2019 while core prices increased at 1.2 percent. In the forty-ninth wave, final demand prices increased at annual equivalent 4.1 percent in Feb-Apr 2019 while core prices increased at 2.8 percent. In the fiftieth wave, final demand prices increased at 2.4 percent in May 2019 while core prices changed at 2.4 percent. In the fifty-first wave, final demand prices increased at annual equivalent 0.8 percent in Jun-Aug 2019 while core prices increased at 2.0 percent. In the fifty-second wave, final demand prices decreased at annual equivalent 3.5 percent in Sep 2019 while core prices decreased at 2.4 percent.  In the fifty-third wave, final demand prices increased at 1.2 percent in Oct-Nov 2019 while core prices decreased at 0.6 percent. In the fifty-fourth wave, final demand prices increased at annual equivalent 3.7 percent in Dec 2019-Jan 2020 while core prices increased at 3.7 percent. In the fifty-fifth wave, final demand prices decreased at annual equivalent 8.5 percent in Feb-Apr 2020 while core prices decreased at 2.4 percent. In the fifty-sixth wave, final demand prices increased at annual equivalent 10.0 percent in May 2020 while core prices increased at 2.4 percent. In the fifty-seventh wave, final demand prices decreased at annual equivalent 2.4 percent in Jun 2020 while core prices decreased at 3.5 percent. In the fifty-eighth wave, final demand prices increased at annual equivalent 5.5 percent in Jul-Aug 2020 while core prices increased at 5.5 percent. It is almost impossible to forecast PPI inflation and its relation to CPI inflation. “Inflation surprise” by monetary policy could be proposed to climb along a downward sloping Phillips curve, resulting in higher inflation but lower unemployment (see Kydland and Prescott 1977, Barro and Gordon 1983 and past comments of this blog http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2011/05/slowing-growth-global-inflation-great.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2011/04/new-economics-of-rose-garden-turned.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2011/03/is-there-second-act-of-us-great.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/06/rules-versus-discretionary-authorities.html). The architects of monetary policy would require superior inflation forecasting ability compared to forecasting naivety by everybody else. In practice, we are all naïve in forecasting inflation and other economic variables and events.

Table I-6B, US, Headline and Core Final Demand Producer Price Inflation Monthly SA and 12-Month NSA ∆%

	Final Demand SA Month	Final Demand NSA 12 months	Final Demand Core SA Month	Final Demand Core NSA 12 months
Aug 2020	0.3	-0.2	0.4	0.6
Jul	0.6	-0.4	0.5	0.3
AE ∆% Jul-Aug	5.5		5.5
Jun	-0.2	-0.8	-0.3	0.1
AE ∆% Jun	-2.4		-3.5
May	0.8	-0.8	0.2	0.3
AE ∆% May	10.0		2.4
Apr	-1.3	-1.5	-0.4	0.3
Mar	-0.4	0.3	0.1	1.1
Feb	-0.5	1.1	-0.3	1.2
AE ∆% Feb-Apr	-8.5		-2.4
Jan	0.3	2.0	0.3	1.6
Dec 2019	0.3	1.4	0.3	1.3
AE ∆% Dec-Jan	3.7		3.7
Nov	-0.1	1.0	-0.3	1.2
Oct	0.3	1.0	0.2	1.6
AE ∆% Oct-Nov	1.2		-0.6
Sep	-0.3	1.5	-0.2	2.0
AE ∆% Sep	-3.5		-2.4
Aug	0.1	1.9	0.3	2.3
Jul	0.3	1.6	0.2	2.2
Jun	-0.2	1.6	0.0	2.2
AE ∆% Jun-Aug	0.8		2.0
May	0.2	2.1	0.2	2.4
AE ∆% May	2.4		2.4
Apr	0.4	2.4	0.4	2.5
Mar	0.4	2.0	0.1	2.3
Feb	0.2	1.9	0.2	2.5
AE ∆% Feb-Apr	4.1		2.8
Jan	-0.3	1.9	0.0	2.6
Dec 2018	-0.1	2.6	0.2	2.9
AE ∆% Dec-Jan	-2.4		1.2
Nov	-0.1	2.6	0.2	2.7
AE ∆% Nov	-1.2		2.4
Oct	0.7	3.1	0.5	2.7
Sep	0.2	2.7	0.2	2.6
AE ∆% Sep-Oct	5.5		4.3
Aug	0.0	3.0	0.0	2.6
Jul	0.2	3.4	0.2	2.8
AE ∆% Jul-Aug	1.2		1.2
Jun	0.3	3.3	0.3	2.7
May	0.4	3.1	0.3	2.4
Apr	0.1	2.7	0.2	2.4
AE ∆% Apr-Jun	3.2		3.2
Mar	0.3	2.9	0.3	2.7
Feb	0.3	2.8	0.3	2.5
Jan	0.4	2.6	0.4	2.2
AE ∆% Jan-Mar	4.1		4.1
Dec 2017	0.0	2.5	0.0	2.2
AE ∆% Dec	0.0		0.0
Nov	0.4	3.0	0.2	2.3
Oct	0.4	2.8	0.4	2.4
Sep	0.4	2.6	0.2	2.2
Aug	0.4	2.4	0.2	2.2
AE ∆% Aug-Nov	4.9		4.1
Jul	0.1	2.0	0.2	1.9
AE ∆% Jul	1.2		2.4
Jun	0.0	1.9	0.0	1.8
May	0.1	2.3	0.3	2.0
AE ∆% May-Jun	0.4		1.8
Apr	0.4	2.5	0.4	1.9
AE ∆% Apr	4.9		4.9
Mar	0.2	2.2	0.2	1.5
AE ∆% Mar	2.4		2.4
Feb	0.0	2.0	-0.1	1.3
AE ∆% Feb	0.0		-1.2
Jan	0.4	1.7	0.3	1.4
AE ∆% Jan	4.9		3.7
Dec 2016	0.3	1.7	0.2	1.7
Nov	0.2	1.3	0.3	1.7
AE ∆% Nov-Dec	3.0		3.0
Oct	0.2	1.1	0.1	1.5
AE ∆% Oct	2.4		1.2
Sep	0.4	0.6	0.2	1.2
AE ∆% Sep	4.9		2.4
Aug	-0.2	0.0	0.0	1.0
AE ∆% Aug	-2.4		0.0
July	-0.1	0.0	-0.1	0.9
AE ∆% Jul	-1.2		-1.2
Jun	0.5	0.2	0.3	1.2
May	0.3	0.0	0.1	1.2
Apr	0.1	0.2	0.2	1.1
AE ∆% Apr-Jun	3.7		2.4
Mar	0.0	-0.1	-0.1	1.1
Feb	-0.3	0.1	0.0	1.3
AE ∆% Mar-Feb	-1.8		-0.6
Jan	0.4	0.0	0.5	0.8
AE ∆% Jan	4.9		6.2
Dec 2015	-0.1	-1.1	0.2	0.2
AE ∆% Dec	-1.2		2.4
Nov	0.1	-1.3	0.1	0.3
AE ∆% Nov	1.2		1.2
Oct	-0.3	-1.4	-0.2	0.2
Sep	-0.4	-1.1	-0.1	0.7
AE ∆% Sep-Oct	-4.1		-1.8
Aug	-0.2	-1.0	0.0	0.6
AE ∆% Aug	-2.4		0.0
Jul	0.2	-0.7	0.2	0.8
Jun	0.3	-0.5	0.3	1.1
May	0.4	-0.8	0.1	0.7
AE ∆% May-Jul	3.7		2.4
Apr	-0.2	-1.1	0.0	1.0
AE ∆% Apr	-2.4		0.0
Mar	0.2	-0.9	0.1	0.8
AE ∆% Mar	2.4		1.2
Feb	-0.5	-0.5	-0.4	1.0
Jan	-0.6	0.0	0.0	1.7
AE ∆% Jan-Feb	-6.4		-2.4
Dec 2014	-0.3	0.9	0.2	2.0
Nov	-0.2	1.3	0.0	1.7
AE ∆% Nov-Dec	-3.0		1.2
Oct	0.2	1.5	0.4	1.9
AE ∆% Oct	2.4		4.9
Sep	-0.2	1.6	-0.1	1.6
Aug	0.0	1.9	0.0	1.9
AE ∆% Aug-Sep	-1.2		-0.6
Jul	0.4	1.9	0.5	1.9
Jun	-0.1	1.8	0.0	1.6
May	0.2	2.1	0.3	2.1
Apr	0.1	1.8	0.0	1.5
Mar	0.4	1.6	0.3	1.6
AE ∆% Mar-Jul	2.4		2.7
Feb	0.2	1.2	0.2	1.6
Jan	0.3	1.3	0.2	1.4
Dec 2013	0.1	1.2	0.0	1.2
AE ∆% Dec-Feb	2.4		1.6
Nov	0.2	1.1	0.2	1.4
Oct	0.2	1.3	0.2	1.7
Sep	0.0	1.1	0.1	1.6
AE ∆% Sep-Nov	1.6		2.0
Aug	0.1	1.7	0.0	1.8
Jul	0.2	2.0	0.3	1.7
Jun	0.4	1.7	0.4	1.3
May	-0.1	0.9	-0.3	0.9
AE ∆%  May-Aug	1.8		1.6
Apr	-0.2	0.9	0.2	1.3
Mar	0.0	1.3	0.2	1.5
AE ∆%  Mar-Apr	-1.2		2.4
Feb	0.2	1.6	0.0	1.4
Jan	0.3	1.6	0.1	1.7
AE ∆%  Jan-Feb	3.0		0.6
Dec 2012	0.0	1.9	0.1	2.0
Nov	0.1	1.7	0.5	1.8
Oct	0.1	1.9	0.1	1.6
AE ∆%  Oct-Dec	0.8		2.8
Sep	0.7	1.5	0.3	1.4
Aug	0.3	1.2	-0.1	1.2
AE ∆% Aug-Sep	6.2		1.2
Jul	-0.1	1.0	-0.1	1.7
Jun	-0.3	1.3	-0.1	1.9
AE ∆% Jun-Jul	-2.4		-1.2
May	-0.1	1.6	0.2	2.2
Apr	0.3	2.0	0.3	2.1
AE ∆% Apr-May	1.2		3.0
Mar	0.2	2.4	0.2	2.3
Feb	0.3	2.8	0.3	2.6
Jan	0.4	3.1	0.4	2.5
AE ∆% Jan-Mar	3.7		3.7
Dec 2011	-0.1	3.2	0.0	2.6
Nov	0.3	3.7	0.2	2.7
Oct	-0.4	3.7	-0.3	2.7
AE ∆% Oct-Dec	-0.8		-0.4
Sep	0.4	4.5	0.2	2.9
Aug	0.2	4.4	0.4	3.0
Jul	0.2	4.5	0.2	2.7
AE ∆% Jul-Sep	3.2		3.2
Jun	0.1	4.3	0.2	2.6
May	0.3	4.2	0.2	2.3
AE ∆%  May-Jun	2.4		2.4
Apr	0.5	4.2	0.3	2.5
Mar	0.7	4.0	0.5	NA
Feb	0.6	3.3	0.3	NA
Jan	0.6	2.4	0.4	NA
AE ∆%  Jan-Apr	7.4		4.6
Dec 2010	0.3	2.8	0.1	NA
Nov	0.3	2.6	0.1	NA
Oct	0.4	NA	0.1	NA
Sep	0.3	NA	0.2	NA
Aug	0.2	NA	0.0	NA
Jul	0.2	NA	0.2	NA
Jun	-0.2	NA	-0.1	NA
May	0.2	NA	0.3	NA
Apr	0.3	NA	NA	NA
Mar	0.1	NA	NA	NA
Feb	-0.2	NA	NA	NA
Jan	0.9	NA	NA	NA
Dec 2009	0.1

Note: Core: excluding food and energy; AE: annual equivalent

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/ppi/data.htm

Chart I-24B provides the FD PPI NSA from 2009 to 2020. There is persistent inflation with periodic declines in inflation waves similar to those worldwide.

Chart I-24B, US, Final Demand Producer Price Index, NSA, 2009-2020

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/ppi/

Twelve-month percentage changes of the FD PPI from 2010 to 2020 are in Chart I-25B. There are fluctuations in the rates with evident trend of decline to more subdued inflation. Reallocations of investment portfolios of risk financial assets from commodities to stocks explain much lower FD PPI inflation.

Chart I-25B, US, Final Demand Producer Price Index, 12-Month Percentage Change NSA, 2010-2020

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/ppi/

The core FD PPI NSA is in Chart I-26B. The behavior is similar to the headline index but with less fluctuation.

Chart I-26B, US, Final Demand Producer Price Index Excluding Food and Energy, NSA, 2009-2020

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/ppi/

Percentage changes in 12 months of the core FD PPI are in Chart I-27B. There are fluctuations in 12-month percentage changes but with evident declining trend to more moderate inflation.

Chart I-27B, US, Final Demand Producer Price Index Excluding Food and Energy, 12-Month Percentage Change, NSA, 2010-2020

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/ppi/

The energy FD PPI NSA is in Chart I-28B. The index increased during the reposition of carry trades after the discovery of lack of toxic assets in banks that caused flight away from risk financial assets into government obligations of the US (Cochrane and Zingales 2009). Alternating risk aversion and appetite with reallocations among classes of risk financial assets explain the behavior of the index after late 2010.

Chart I-28B, US, Final Demand Energy Producer Price Index, NSA, 2009-2020

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/ppi/

Twelve-month percentage changes of the FD energy PPI are in Chart I-29B. Rates moderated from late 2010 to the present. There are multiple negative rates. Investors create and reverse carry trades from zero interest rates to derivatives of commodities in accordance with relative risk evaluations of classes of risk financial assets.

Chart I-29B, US, Final Demand Energy Producer Price Index, 12-Month Percentage Change, NSA, 2010-2020

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/ppi/

Table I-7 provides 12-month percentage changes of the CPI all items, CPI core and CPI housing from 2001 to 2019. There is no evidence in these data supporting symmetric inflation targets that would only induce greater instability in inflation, interest rates and financial markets. Unconventional monetary policy drives wide swings in allocations of positions into risk financial assets that generate instability instead of intended pursuit of prosperity without inflation. There is insufficient knowledge and imperfect tools to maintain the gap of actual relative to potential output constantly at zero while restraining inflation in an open interval (1.99, 2.0). Symmetric targets appear to have been abandoned in a favor of a self-imposed single jobs mandate of easing

monetary policy even with the economy growing at or close to potential output.

Table I-7, CPI All Items, CPI Core and CPI Housing, 12-Month Percentage Change, NSA 2001-2020

Jul	CPI All Items	CPI Core ex Food and Energy	CPI Housing
2020	1.3	1.7	2.1
2019	1.7	2.4	2.8
2018	2.7	2.2	2.9
2017	1.9	1.7	2.9
2016	1.1	2.3	2.6
2015	0.2	1.8	2.0
2014	1.7	1.7	2.6
2013	1.5	1.8	2.2
2012	1.7	1.9	1.4
2011	3.8	2.0	1.6
2010	1.1	0.9	-0.4
2009	-1.5	1.4	-0.6
2008	5.4	2.5	3.8
2007	2.0	2.1	2.9
2006	3.8	2.8	4.2
2005	3.6	2.1	3.0
2004	2.7	1.7	2.7
2003	2.2	1.3	2.4
2002	1.8	2.4	2.1
2001	2.7	2.7	4.2

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/cpi/

 

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020.