CMP Associates Regulation Blog

New Nonfarm Hires of 6.343 Million in Jul 2020, New 2.421 Million Full-Time Jobs Created in August 2020, Recovery Without Hiring in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth Underperforming Below Trend Worldwide, Fifteen Million Fewer Full-Time Jobs In the Global Recession, with Output in the US Reaching a High in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the Lockdown of Economic Activity in the COVID-19 Event, Youth and Middle-Age Unemployment, United States Inflation, World Cyclical Slow Growth, and Government Intervention in Globalization: Part III

Carlos M. Pelaez

I Recovery without Hiring

IA1 Hiring Collapse

IA2 Labor Underutilization

ICA3 Fifteen Million Fewer Full-time Jobs

IA4 Theory and Reality of Cyclical Slow Growth Not Secular Stagnation: Youth and Middle-Age Unemployment

IC United States Inflation

IC Long-term US Inflation

ID Current US Inflation

III World Financial Turbulence

IV Global Inflation

V World Economic Slowdown

VA United States

VB Japan

VC China

VD Euro Area

VE Germany

VF France

VG Italy

VH United Kingdom

VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets

VII Economic Indicators

VIII Interest Rates

IX Conclusion

References

Appendixes

Appendix I The Great Inflation

IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies

IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact

IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort

IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis

Table I-10, US, Employment Level 16-24 Years, Thousands, NSA

Year	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Dec	Annual
2001	19648	21212	22042	20529	19547	20088
2002	19484	20828	21501	20653	19394	19683
2003	19032	20432	20950	20181	19136	19351
2004	19237	20587	21447	20660	19619	19630
2005	19356	20949	21749	20814	19733	19770
2006	19769	21268	21914	21167	20129	20041
2007	19457	21098	21717	20413	19361	19875
2008	19254	20466	21021	20096	18378	19202
2009	17588	18726	19304	18270	16615	17601
2010	17039	17920	18564	18061	16727	17077
2011	17045	18180	18632	18067	17234	17362
2012	17681	18907	19461	18171	17604	17834
2013	17704	19125	19684	18636	18106	18057
2014	18329	19421	20085	18972	18347	18442
2015	18709	19789	20333	19577	18720	18756
2016	18875	19967	20456	19876	18830	18992
2017	19070	20330	20890	20038	18610	19206
2018	18984	20332	20897	19372	18775	19177
2019	19177	20639	21196	19898	18977	19322
2020	14352	16553	17507	17577

Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/data/

Chart I-21 provides the level of employment for ages 16 to 24 years. There was much sharper decline in employment levels of youth in the global recession than in the recession of 2001 to 2002. There has not been full recovery of the employment levels of youth before the global recession after 2007. There is sharp contraction of youth jobs in Apr 2020 in the lockdown of economic activity in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event, with recovery to still lower levels in May-Aug 2020.

Chart I-21, US, Employment Level 16-24 Years, Thousands SA, 2001-2020

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/data/

Chart I-21A provides the US civilian noninstitutional population ages 16 to 24 years not seasonally adjusted from 2001 to 2019. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased by 1.292 million from 37.443 million in Jul 2007 to 38.735 million in Jul 2014 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.632 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased from 37.445 million in Aug 2007 to 38.706 million in Aug 2014 or 1.251 million while the number of youth jobs fell 1.441 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.652 million from 37.027 million in Sep 2006 to 38.679 million in Sep 2014 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.500 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased from 37.047 million in Oct 2006 to 38.650 million in Oct 2014 or 1.603 million while the number of youth jobs fell 1.072 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 38.628 million in Nov 2014 or 1.552 million while the number of youth jobs fell 1.327 million. The civilian noninstitutional population increased from 37.100 million in Dec 2006 to 38.606 million in Dec 2014 or 1.506 million while the number of youth jobs fell 1.782 million. The civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.971 million from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 38.732 million in Jan 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.091 million. The civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.914 million from 36.791 million in Feb 2006 to 38.705 million in Feb 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 0.960 million. The civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.858 million from 36.821 million in Mar 2006 to 38.679 million in Mar 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.215 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.800 million from 36.854 million in Apr 2006 to 38.654 million in Apr 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.165 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1,733 million from 36.897 million in May 2006 to 38.630 million in May 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.060 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.666 million from 36.943 million in Jun 2006 to 38.609 million in Jun 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.479 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.600 million from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 38.589 million in Jul 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.581 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.548 million from 37.008 million in Aug 2006 to 38.556 million in Aug 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.590 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1,498 million from 37.027 million in Sep 2006 to 38.525 million in Sep 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.249 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.444 million from 37.047 million in Oct 2006 to 38.491 million in Oct 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.199 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.392 million from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 38.468 million in Nov 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.418 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.341 million from 37.100 million in Dec 2006 to 38.441 million in Dec 2015 while the level of youth jobs 1.409 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.734 million from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 38.495 million in Jan 2016 while the level of youth jobs fell 0.844 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.698 million from 36.791 million in Feb 2006 to 38.489 million in Feb 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 0.726 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1,662 million from 36.821 million in Mar 2006 to 38.483 million in Mar 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 0.711 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.626 million from 36.854 million in Apr 2006 to 38.480 million in Apr 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 0.895 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.571 million from 36.897 million in May 2006 to 38.468 million in May 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 0.894 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.516 million from 36.943 million in Jun 2006 to 38.459 million in Jun 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.301 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.461 million from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 38.450 million in Jul 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.458 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.414 million from 37.008 million in Aug 2006 to 38.422 million in Aug 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.291 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.368 million from 37.027 million in Sep 2006 to 38.395 million in Sep 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 0.911 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.320 million from 37.047 million in Oct 2006 to 38.367 million in Oct 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.158 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.283 million from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 38.359 million in Nov 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.102 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.248 million from 37.100 million in Dec 2006 to 38.348 million in Dec 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.299 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.488 million from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 38.249 million in Jan 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.692 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.440 million from 36.791 million in Feb 2006 to 38.231 million in Feb 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.578 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.393 million from 36.821 million in Mar 2006 to 38.214 million in Mar 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.377 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.343 million from 36.854 million in Apr 2006 to 38.197 million in Apr 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.458 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.284 million from 36.897 million in May 2006 to 38.181 million in May 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.699 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.223 million from 36.943 million in Jun 2006 to 38.166 million in Jun 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.938 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.163 million from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 38.152 million in Jul 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.024 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.163 million from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 38.152 million in Jul 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.024 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.120 million from 37.008 million in Aug 2006 to 38.128 million in Aug 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.129 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.076 million from 37.027 million in Sep 2006 to 38.103 million in Sep 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.485 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.032 million from 37.047 million in Oct 2006 to 38.079 million in Oct 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.852 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.984 million from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 38.060 million in Nov 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.272 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.938 million from 37.100 million in Dec 2006 to 38.038 million in Dec 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.519 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.304 million from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 38.065 million in Jan 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.500 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.264 million from 36.791 million in Feb 2006 to 38.055 million in Feb 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.380 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.225 million from 36.821 million in Mar 2006 to 38.046 million in Mar 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.244 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.185 million from 36.854 million in Apr 2006 to 38.039 million in Apr 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.533 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.126 million from 36.897 million in May 2006 to 38.023 million in May 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.785 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.066 million from 36.943 million in Jun 2006 to 38.009 million in Jun 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.936 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.008 million from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 37.997 million in Jul 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.017 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.977 million from 37.008 million in Aug 2006 to 37.985 million in Aug 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.795 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.947 million from 37.027 million in Sep 2006 to 37.974 million in Sep 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.818 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.915 million from 37.047 million in Oct 2006 to 37.962 million in Oct 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.943 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.876 million from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 37.952 million in Nov 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.063 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.876 million from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 37.952 million in Nov 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.063 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.840 million from 37.100 million in Dec 2006 to 37.940 million in Dec 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.354 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.038 million from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 37.799 million in Jan 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.707 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.996 million from 36.791 million in Feb 2006 to 37.787 million in Feb 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.706 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.952 million from 36.821 million in Mar 2006 to 37.773 million in Mar 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.479 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.908 million from 36.854 million in Apr 2006 to 37.762 million in Apr 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.620 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.853 million from 36.897 million in May 2006 to 37.750 million in May 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.592 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.795 million from 36.943 million in Jun 2006 to 37.738 million in Jun 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.629 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.740 million from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 37.729 million in Jul 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.718 million. This hardship does not originate in low growth of population but in underperformance of the economy in the expansion from the business cycle. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.722 million from 37.008 million in Aug 2006 to 37.730 million in Aug 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.269 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.705 million from 37.027 million in Sep 2006 to 37.732 million in Sep 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.475 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.687 million from 37.047 million in Oct 2006 to 37.734 million in Oct 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.466 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.650 million from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 37.726 million in Nov 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.811 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.617 million from 37.100 million in Dec 2006 to 37.717 million in Dec 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.152 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.758 million from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 37.519 million in Jan 2020 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.357 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.721 million from 36.791 million in Feb 2006 to 37.512 million in Feb 2020 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.100 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.683 million from 36.821 million in Mar 2006 to 37.504 million in Mar 2020 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.231 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.643 million from 36.854 million in Apr 2006 to 37.497 million in Apr 2020 while the number of youth jobs decreased 6.294 million in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.591 million from 36.897 million in May 2006 to 37.488 million in May 2020 while the number of youth jobs decreased 5.417 million in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.536 million from 36.943 million in Jun 2006 to 37.479 million in Jun 2020 while the number of youth jobs decreased 4.715 million in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. This hardship does not originate in low growth of population but in underperformance of the economy in the expansion from the business cycle. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.483 million from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 37.472 million in Jul 2020 while the number of youth jobs decreased 4.407 million in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.463 million from 37.008 million in Aug 2006 to 37.471 million in Aug 2020 while the number of youth jobs decreased 3.590 million in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. This hardship does not originate in low growth of population but in underperformance of the economy in the expansion from the business cycle. There are two hardships behind these data. First, young people cannot find employment after finishing high school and college, reducing prospects for achievement in older age. Second, students with more modest means cannot find employment to keep them in college.

Chart I-21A, US, Civilian Noninstitutional Population Ages 16 to 24 Years, Thousands NSA, 2001-2020

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/data/

Chart I-21B provides the civilian labor force of the US ages 16 to 24 years NSA from 2001 to 2018. The US civilian labor force ages 16 to 24 years fell from 24.339 million in Jul 2007 to 23.506 million in Jul 2013, by 0.833 million or decline of 3.4 percent, while the civilian noninstitutional population NSA increased from 37.443 million in Jul 2007 to 38.861 million in Jul 2013, by 1.418 million or 3.8 percent. The US civilian labor force ages 16 to 24 fell from 22.801 million in Aug 2007 to 22.089 million in Aug 2013, by 0.712 million or 3.1 percent, while the noninstitutional population for ages 16 to 24 years increased from 37.455 million in Aug 2007 to 38.841 million in Aug 2013, by 1.386 million or 3.7 percent. The US civilian labor force ages 16 to 24 years fell from 21.917 million in Sep 2007 to 21.183 million in Sep 2013, by 0.734 million or 3.3 percent while the civilian noninstitutional youth population increased from 37.467 million in Sep 2007 to 38.822 million in Sep 2013 by 1.355 million or 3.6 percent. The US civilian labor force fell from 21.821 million in Oct 2007 to 21.003 million in Oct 2013, by 0.818 million or 3.7 percent while the noninstitutional youth population increased from 37.480 million in Oct 2007 to 38.804 million in Oct 2013, by 1.324 million or 3.5 percent. The US youth civilian labor force fell from 21.909 million in Nov 2007 to 20.825 million in Nov 2013, by 1.084 million or 4.9 percent while the civilian noninstitutional youth population increased from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 38.798 million in Nov 2013 or by 1.722 million. The US youth civilian labor force fell from 21.684 million in Dec 2007 to 20.642 million in Dec 2013, by 1.042 million or 4.8 percent, while the civilian noninstitutional population increased from 37.518 million in Dec 2007 to 38.790 million in Dec 2013, by 1.272 million or 3.4 percent. The youth civilian labor force of the US fell from 21.770 million in Jan 2007 to 20.423 million in Jan 2014, by 1.347 million or 6.2 percent while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 37.282 million in Jan 2007 to 38.770 million in Jan 2014, by 1.488 million or 4.0 percent. The youth civilian labor force of the US fell 1.255 million from 21.645 million in Feb 2007 to 20.390 million in Feb 2014 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.464 million from 37.302 million in Feb 2007 to 38.766 million in Feb 2014. The youth civilian labor force of the US fell 0.693 million from 21.634 million in Mar 2007 to 20.941 million in Mar 2014 or 3.2 person while the youth noninstitutional civilian population 1.437 million from 37.324 million in Mar 2007 to 38.761 million in Mar 2014 or 3.9 percent. The US youth civilian labor force fell 981 thousand from 21.442 million in Apr 2007 to 20.461 million in Apr 2014 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased from 37.349 million in Apr 2007 to 38.759 million in Apr 2014 by 1.410 thousand or 3.8 percent. The youth civilian labor force decreased from 21.659 million in May 2007 to 21.160 million in May 2014 by 499 thousand or 2.3 percent while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.370 million from 37.739 million in May 2007 to 38.749 million in May 2007 or by 2.7 percent. The youth civilian labor force decreased from 24.128 million in Jun 2006 to 22.851 million in Jun 2014 by 1.277 million or 5.3 percent while the civilian noninstitutional population increased from 36.943 million in Jun 2006 to 38.740 million in Jun 2014 by 1.797 million or 4.9 percent. The youth civilian labor force fell from 24.664 million in Jul 2006 to 23.437 million in Jul 2014 while the civilian noninstitutional population increased from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 38.735 million in Jul 2014. The youth civilian labor force fell 1.818 million from 23.634 million in Aug 2006 to 21.816 million in Aug 2014 while the civilian noninstitutional population increased from 37.008 million in Aug 2006 to 38.706 million in Aug 2914 or 1.698 million. The youth civilian labor force fell 0.942 million from 21.901 million in Sep 2006 to 20.959 million in Sep 2014 while the noninstitutional population increased 1.652 million from 37.027 million in Sep 2006 to 38.679 million in Sep 2014. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.702 million from 22.105 million in Oct 2006 to 21.403 million in Oct 2014 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased from 37.047 million in Oct 2006 to 38.650 million in Oct 2014 or 1.603 million. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.111 million from 22.145 million in Nov 2006 to 21.034 million in Nov 2014 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 38.628 million in Nov 2014 or 1.552 million. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.472 million from 22.136 million in Dec 2006 to 20.664 million in Dec 2014 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased from 37.100 million in Dec 2006 to 38.606 million in Dec 2014 or 1.506 million. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.831 million from 21.368 million in Jan 2006 to 20.555 million in Jan 2015 while the youth noninstitutional population increased from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 38.732 million in Jan 2015 or 1.971 million. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.864 million from 21.615 million in Feb 2006 to 20.751 million in Feb 2015 while the youth noninstitutional population increased 1.914 million from 36.791 million in Feb 2006 to 38.705 million in Feb 2015. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.907 million from 21.507 million in Mar 2006 to 20.600 million in Mar 2015 while the civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.858 million from 36.821 million in Mar 2006 to 38.679 million in Mar 2015. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.082 million from 21.498 million in Apr 2006 to 20.416 million in Apr 2015 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.800 million from 36.854 million in Apr 2006 to 38.654 million in Apr 2015. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.681 million from 22.023 million in May 2006 to 21.342 million in May 2015 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1,733 million from 36.897 million in May 2006 to 38.630 million in May 2015. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.202 million from 24.128 million in Jun 2006 to 22.926 million in Jun 2015 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.666 million from 36.943 million in Jun 2006 to 38.609 million in Jun 2015. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.502 million from 24.664 million in Jul 2007 to 23.162 million in Jul 2015 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.600 million from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 38.589 million in Jul 2015. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.667 million from 23.634 million in Aug 2006 to 21.967 million in Aug 2015 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.548 million from 37.008 in Aug 2006 to 38.556 million in Aug 2015. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.290 million from 21.901 million in Sep 2006 to 20.611 in Sep 2015 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.498 million from 37.027 million in Sep 2006 to 38.525 million in Sep 2015. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.228 million from 22.105 million in Oct 2006 to 20.877 million in Oct 2015 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.444 million from 37.047 million in Oct 2006 to 38.491 million in Oct 2015. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.513 million from 22.145 million in Nov 2006 to 20.632 million in Nov 2015 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.392 million from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 38.468 million in Nov 2015. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.301 million from 22.136 million in Dec 2006 to 20.835 million in Dec 2015 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.341 million from 37.100 million in Dec 2006 to 38.441 million in Dec 2015. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.004 million from 21.368 million in Jan 2006 to 20.364 million in Jan 2016 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.734 million from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 38.495 million in Jan 2016. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.930 million from 21.615 million in Feb 2006 to 20.685 million in Feb 2016 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.698 million from 36.791 million in Feb 2006 to 38.489 million in Feb 2016. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.767 million from 21.507 million in Mar 2006 to 20.740 million in Mar 2016 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.662 million from 36.821 million in Mar 2006 to 38.483 million in Mar 2016. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.950 million from 21.498 million in Apr 2006 to 20.548 million in Apr 2016 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.626 million from 36.854 million in Apr 2006 to 38.480 million in Apr 2016. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.921 million from 22.023 million in May 2006 to 21.102 million in May 2016 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.571 million from 36.897 million in May 2006 to 38.468 million in May 2016. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.373 million from 24.128 million in Jun 2006 to 22.755 million in Jun 2016 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.516 million from 36.943 million in Jun 2006 to 38.459 million in Jun 2016. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.560 million from 24.664 million in Jul 2006 to 23.104 million in Jul 2016 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1,461 million from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 38.450 million in Jul 2016. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.536 million from 23.634 million in Aug 2006 to 22.098 million in Aug 2016 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.414 million from 37.008 million in Aug 2006 to 38.422 million in Aug 2016. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.082 million from 21.901 million in Sep 2006 to 20.891 million in Sep 2016 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.368 million from 37.027 million in Sep 2006 to 38.395 million in Sep 2016. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.315 million from 22.105 million in Oct 2006 to 20.790 million in Oct 2016 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.320 million from 37.047 million in Oct 2006 to 38.367 million in Oct 2016. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.410 million from 22.145 million in Nov 2006 to 20.735 million in Nov 2016 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.283 million from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 38.359 million in Nov 2016. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.447 million from 22.136 million in Dec 2006 to 20.689 million in Dec 2016 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.248 million from 37.100 million in Dec 2006 to 38.348 million in Dec 2016. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.861 million from 21.368 million in Jan 2006 to 20.507 million in Jan 2017 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.488 million from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 38.249 million in Jan 2017. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.918 million from 21.615 million in Feb 2006 to 20.697 million in Feb 2017 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.440 million from 36.791 million in Feb 2006 to 38.231 million in Feb 2017. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.751 million from 21.507 million in Mar 2006 to 20.756 million in Mar 2017 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.393 million from 36.821 million in Mar 2006 to 38.214 million in Mar 2017. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.790 million from 21.498 million in Apr 2006 to 20.708 million in Apr 2017 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.343 million from 36.854 million in Apr 2006 to 38.197 million in Apr 2017. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.124 million from 22.023 million in May 2006 to 20.899 million in May 2017 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.284 million from 36.897 million in May 2006 to 38.181 million in May 2017. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.408 million from 24.128 million in Jun 2006 to 22.720 million in Jun 2017 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.223 million from 36.943 million in Jun 2006 to 38.166 million in Jun 2017. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.557 million from 24.664 million in Jul 2006 to 23.107 million in Jul 2017 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.163 million from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 38.152 million in Jul 2017. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.666 million from 23.634 million in Aug 2006 to 21.968 million in Aug 2017 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.120 million from 37.008 million in Aug 2006 to 38.128 million in Aug 2017. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.904 million from 21.901 million in Sep 2006 to 20.997 million in Sep 2017 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.076 million from 37.027 million in Sep 2006 to 38.103 million in Sep 2017. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.284 million from 22.105 million in Oct 2006 to 20.821 million in Oct 2017 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.032 million from 37.047 million in Oct 2006 to 38.079 million in Oct 2017. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.652 million from 22.145 million in Nov 2006 to 20.493 million in Nov 2017 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.984 million from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 38.060 million in Nov 2017. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.885 million from 22.136 million in Dec 2006 to 20.251 million in Dec 2017 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.938 million from 37.100 million in Dec 2006 to 38.038 million in Dec 2017. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.835 million from 21.368 million in Jan 2006 to 20.533 million in Jan 2018 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.304 million from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 38.065 million in Jan 2018. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.835 million from 21.368 million in Jan 2006 to 20.533 million in Jan 2018 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.304 million from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 38.065 million in Jan 2018. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.907 million from 21.615 million in Feb 2006 to 20.708 million in Jan 2018 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.264 million from 36.791 million in Feb 2006 to 38.055 million in Feb 2018. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.755 million from 21.507 million in Mar 2006 to 20.752 million in Mar 2018 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.225 million from 36.821 million in Mar 2006 to 38.046 million in Mar 2018. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.073 million from 21.498 million in Apr 2006 to 20.425 million in Apr 2018 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.185 million from 36.854 million in Apr 2006 to 38.039 million in Apr 2018. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.244 million from 22.023 million in May 2006 to 20.779 million in May 2018 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.126 million from 36.897 million in Apr 2006 to 38.023 million in Apr 2018. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.244 million from 22.023 million in May 2006 to 20.779 million in May 2018 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.126 million from 36.897 million in May 2006 to 38.023 million in May 2018. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.488 million from 24.128 million in Jun 2006 to 22.640 million in Jun 2018 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.066 million from 36.943 million in Jun 2006 to 38.009 million in Jun 2018. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.648 million from 24.664 million in Jul 2006 to 23.016 million in Jul 2018 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.008 million from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 37.997 million in Jul 2018. The youth civilian labor force decreased 2.542 million from 23.634 million in Aug 2006 to 21.092 million in Aug 2018 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.977 million from 37.027 million in Aug 2006 to 37.985 million in Aug 2018. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.400 million from 21.901 million in Sep 2006 to 20.501 million in Sep 2018 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.947 million from 37.027 million in Sep 2006 to 37.974 million in Sep 2018. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.544 million from 22.105 million in Oct 2006 to 20.561 million in Oct 2018 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.915 million from 37.047 million in Oct 2006 to 37.962 million in Oct 2018. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.743 million from 22.145 million in Nov 2006 to 20.402 million in Nov 2018 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.876 million from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 37.952 million in Nov 2018. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.735 million from 22.136 million in Dec 2006 to 20.401 million in Dec 2018 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.840 million from 37.100 million in Dec 2006 to 37.940 million in Dec 2018. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.045 million from 21.368 million in Jan 2006 to 20.323 million in Jan 2019 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.038 million from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 37.799 million in Jan 2019. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.252 million from 21.615 million in Feb 2006 to 20.363 million in Feb 2019 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.996 million from 36.791 million in Feb 2006 to 37.787 million in Feb 2019. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.951 million from 21.507 million in Mar 2006 to 20.556 million in Mar 2019 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.952 million from 36.821 million in Mar 2006 to 37.773 million in Mar 2019. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.212 million from 21.498 million in Apr 2006 to 20.286 million in Apr 2019 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.908 million from 36.854 million in Apr 2006 to 37.762 million in Apr 2019. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.055 million from 22.023 million in May 2006 to 20.968 million in May 2019 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.853 million from 36.897 million in May 2006 to 37.750 million in May 2019. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.377 million from 24.128 million in Jun 2006 to 22.751 million in Jun 2019 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.795 million from 36.943 million in Jun 2006 to 37.738 million in Jun 2019. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.353 million from 24.664 million in Jul 2006 to 23.311 million in Jul 2019 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.740 million from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 37.729 million in Jul 2019. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.931 million from 23.634 million in Aug 2006 to 21.703 million in Aug 2019 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.722 million from 37.008 million in Aug 2006 to 37.730 million in Aug 2019. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.148 million from 21.901 million in Sep 2006 to 20.753 million in Sep 2019 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.705 million from 37.027 million in Sep 2006 to 37.732 million in Sep 2019. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.137 million from 22.105 million in Oct 2006 to 20.968 million in Oct 2019 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.687 million from 37.047 million in Oct 2006 to 37.734 million in Oct 2019. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.513 million from 22.145 million in Nov 2006 to 20.632 million in Nov 2019 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.650 million from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 37.726 million in Nov 2019. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.643 million from 22.136 million in Dec 2006 to 20.493 million in Dec 2019 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.617 million from 37.100 million in Dec 2006 to 37.717 million in Dec 2019. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.854 million from 21.368 million in Jan 2006 to 20.514 million in Jan 2020 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.758 million from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 37.519 million in Jan 2020. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.879 million from 21.615 million in Feb 2006 to 20.736 million in Feb 2020 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.721 million from 36.791 million in Feb 2006 to 37.512 million in Feb 2020. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.440 million from 21.507 million in Mar 2006 to 20.067 million in Mar 2020 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.683 million from 36.821 million in Mar 2006 to 37.504 million in Mar 2020. The youth civilian labor force decreased 3.569 million from 21.498 million in Apr 2006 to 17.929 million in Apr 2020, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event, while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.643 million from 36.854 million in Apr 2006 to 37.497 million in Apr 2020. The youth civilian labor force decreased 2.801 million from 22.023 million in May 2006 to 19.922 million in May 2020, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event, while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.591 million from 36.897 million in May 2006 to 37.488 million in May 2020. The youth civilian labor force decreased 3.059 million from 24.128 million in Jun 2006 to 21.069 million in Jun 2020, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event, while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.536 million from 36.943 million in Jun 2006 to 37.479 million in Jun 2020. The youth civilian labor force decreased 3.185 million from 24.664 million in Jul 2006 to 21.479 million in Jul 2020, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event, while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.483 million from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 37.472 million in Jul 2020. The youth civilian labor force decreased 3.112 million from 23.634 million in Aug 2006 to 20.522 million in Aug 2020, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event, while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.463 million from 37.008 million in Aug 2006 to 37.471 million in Aug 2020. Youth in the US abandoned their participation in the labor force because of the frustration that there are no jobs available for them.

Chart I-21B, US, Civilian Labor Force Ages 16 to 24 Years, Thousands NSA, 2001-2020

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/data/

Chart I-21C provides the ratio of labor force to noninstitutional population or labor force participation of ages 16 to 24 years not seasonally adjusted. The US labor force participation rates for ages 16 to 24 years fell from 66.7 in Jul 2006 to 60.5 in Jul 2013 because of the frustration of young people who believe there may not be jobs available for them. The US labor force participation rate of young people fell from 63.9 in Aug 2006 to 56.9 in Aug 2013. The US labor force participation rate of young people fell from 59.1 percent in Sep 2006 to 54.6 percent in Sep 2013. The US labor force participation rate of young people fell from 59.7 percent in Oct 2006 to 54.1 in Oct 2013. The US labor force participation rate of young people fell from 59.7 percent in Nov 2006 to 53.7 percent in Nov 2013. The US labor force participation rate fell from 57.8 in Dec 2007 to 53.2 in Dec 2013. The youth labor force participation rate fell from 58.4 in Jan 2007 to 52.7 in Jan 2014. The US youth labor force participation rate fell from 58.0 percent in Feb 2007 to 52.6 percent in Feb 2013. The labor force participation rate of ages 16 to 24 years fell from 58.0 in Mar 2007 to 54.0 in Mar 2014. The labor force participation rate of ages 16 to 24 years fell from 57.4 in Apr 2007 to 52.8 in Apr 2014. The labor force participation rate of ages 16 to 24 years fell from 57.9 in May 2007 to 54.6 in May 2014. The labor force participation rate of ages 16 to 24 years fell from 65.3 in Jun 2006 to 59.0 in Jun 2014. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 years fell from 66.7 in Jul 2006 to 60.5 in Jul 2014. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 years fell from 63.9 in Aug 2006 to 56.4 in Aug 2014. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 years fell from 59.1 in Sep 2006 to 54.2 in Sep 2014. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 years fell from 59.7 in Oct 2006 to 55.4 in Oct 2014. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 years fell from 59.7 in Nov 2006 to 54.5 in Nov 2014. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in Dec 2006 to 53.5 in Dec 2014. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.1 in Jan 2006 to 53.1 in Jan 2015. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.8 in Feb 2006 to 53.6 in Feb 2015. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 64 fell from 58.4 in Mar 2006 to 53.3 in Mar 2015. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 64 fell from 58.7 in Apr 2005 to 52.8 in Apr 2006. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 64 fell from 59.7 in May 2006 to 55.2 in May 2015. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 64 fell from 65.3 in Jun 2006 to 59.4 in Jun 2015. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 66.7 in Jul 2006 to 60.0 in Jul 2014. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 63.9 in Aug 2006 to 57.0 in Aug 2015. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.1 in Sep 2006 to 53.5 in Sep 2015. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in Oct 2006 to 54.2 in Oct 2015. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in Nov 2006 to 53.6 in Nov 2015. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in Dec 2006 to 54.2 in Dec 2015. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.1 in Jan 2006 to 52.9 in Jan 2016. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.8 in Feb 2006 to 53.7 in Feb 2016. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.4 in Mar 2006 to 53.9 in Mar 2016. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.3 in Apr 2006 to 53.4 in Apr 2016. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in May 2006 to 54.9 in May 2016. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 65.3 in Jun 2006 to 59.2 in Jun 2016. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 66.7 in Jul 2006 to 60.1 in Jul 2016. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 63.9 in Aug 2006 to 57.5 in Aug 2016. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.1 in Sep 2006 to 54.2 in Sep 2016. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in Oct 2006 to 54.2 in Oct 2016. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in Nov 2006 to 54.1 in Nov 2016. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in Dec 2006 to 54.0 in Dec 2016. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.1 in Jan 2006 to 53.6 in Jan 2017. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.8 in Feb 2006 to 54.1 in Feb 2017. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.4 in Mar 2006 to 54.3 in Mar 2017. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.4 in Mar 2006 to 54.3 in Mar 2017. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.3 in Apr 2006 to 54.2 in Apr 2017. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in May 2006 to 54.7 in May 2017. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 65.3 in Jun 2006 to 59.5 in Jun 2017. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 66.7 in Jul 2006 to 60.6 in Jul 2017. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 63.9 in Aug 2006 to 57.6 in Aug 2017. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.1 in Sep 2006 to 55.1 in Sep 2017. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in Oct 2006 to 54.7 in Oct 2017. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in Nov 2006 to 53.8 in Nov 2017. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in Dec 2006 to 53.2 in Dec 2017. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.1 in Jan 2006 to 53.9 in Jan 2018. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.8 in Feb 2006 to 54.4 in Feb 2018. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.4 in Mar 2006 to 54.5 in Mar 2018. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.3 in Apr 2006 to 53.7 in Apr 2018. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in May 2006 to 54.6 in May 2018. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 65.3 in Jun 2006 to 59.6 in Jun 2018. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 66.7 in Jul 2006 to 60.6 in Jul 2018. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 63.9 in Aug 2006 to 55.5 in Aug 2018. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.1 in Sep 2006 to 54.0 in Sep 2018. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in Oct 2006 to 54.2 in Oct 2018. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in Nov 2006 to 53.8 in Nov 2018. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in Dec 2006 to 53.8 in Dec 2018. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.1 in Jan 2006 to 53.8 in Jan 2019. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.8 in Feb 2006 to 53.9 in Feb 2019. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.4 in Mar 2006 to 54.4 in Mar 2019. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.3 in Apr 2006 to 53.7 in Apr 2019. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in May 2006 to 55.5 in May 2019. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 65.3 in Jun 2006 to 60.3 in Jun 2019. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 66.7 in Jul 2006 to 61.8 in Jul 2019. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 63.9 in Aug 2006 to 57.5 in Aug 2019. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.1 in Sep 2006 to 55.0 in Sep 2019. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in Oct 2006 to 55.6 in Oct 2019. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in Nov 2006 to 54.7 in Nov 2019. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in Dec 2006 to 54.3 in Dec 2019. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.1 in Jan 2006 to 54.7 in Jan 2020. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.8 in Feb 2006 to 55.3 in Feb 2020. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.4 in Mar 2006 to 53.5 in Mar 2020. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.3 in Apr 2006 to 47.8 in Apr 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in May 2006 to 51.3 in May 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 65.3 in Jun 2006 to 56.2 in Jun 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 66.7 in Jul 2006 to 57.3 in Jul 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 63.9 in Aug 2006 to 54.8 in Aug 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Many young people abandoned searches for employment, dropping from the labor force.

Chart I-21C, US, Labor Force Participation Rate Ages 16 to 24 Years, NSA, 2001-2020

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/data/

An important measure of the job market is the number of people with jobs relative to population available for work (civilian noninstitutional population) or employment/population ratio. Chart I-21D provides the employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 years. The US employment/population ratio NSA for ages 16 to 24 years collapsed from 59.2 in Jul 2006 to 50.7 in Jul 2013. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 years dropped from 57.2 in Aug 2006 to 48.0 in Aug 2013. The employment population ratio for ages to 16 to 24 years declined from 52.9 in Sep 2006 to 46.5 in Sep 2013. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 years fell from 53.6 in Oct 2006 to 46.3 in Oct 2013. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 years fell from 53.7 in Nov 2007 to 46.7 in Nov 2013. The US employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 years fell from 51.6 in Dec 2007 to 46.7 in Dec 2013. The US employment population ratio fell from 52.1 in Jan 2007 to 44.8 in Jan 2014. The US employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.0 in Feb 2007 to 44.8 in Feb 2014. The US employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 years fell from 52.3 in Mar 2007 to 46.3 in Mar 2014. The US employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 years fell from 51.9 in Apr 2007 to 46.5 in Apr 2014. The US employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 years fell from 52.1 in May 2007 to 47.3 in May 2014. The US employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 years fell from 57.6 in Jun 2006 to 50.1 in Jun 2014. The US employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 years fell from 59.2 in Jul 2006 to 50.1 in Jul 2014. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 years fell from 57.2 in Aug 2006 to 49.0 in Aug 2014. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.9 in Sep 2006 to 46.8 in Sep 2014. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 53.6 in Oct 2006 to 48.6 in Oct 2014. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 53.7 in Nov 2006 to 48.1 in Nov 2014. The employment population ration for ages 16 to 24 fell from 54.3 in Dec 2006 to 47.5 in Dec 2014. The employment population ration for ages 16 to 24 years fell from 51.7 in Jan 2006 to 46.2 in Jan 2015. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.1 in Feb 2006 to 47.1 in Feb 2015. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 years fell from 52.4 in Mar 2006 to 46.7 in Mar 2015. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 years fell from 52.7 in Apr 2006 to 47.2 in Apr 2015. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 53.6 in May 206 to 48.4 in May 2015. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 57.6 in Jun 2006 to 51.3 in Jun 2015. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.2 in Jul 2006 to 52.7 in Jul 2015. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 57.2 in Aug 2006 to 50.8 in Aug 2015. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 years fell from 52.9 in Sep 2006 to 47.6 in Sep 2015. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 years fell from 53.6 in Oct 2006 to 48.5 in Oct 2015. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 years fell from 53.7 in Nov 2006 to 48.1 in Nov 2015. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 years fell from 54.3 in Dec 2006 to 48.7 in Dec 2015. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 years fell from 51.7 in Jan 2006 to 47.2 in Jan 2016. The employment population ration for ages 16 to 24 years fell from 52.1 in Feb 2006 to 48.0 in Feb 2016. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.4 in Mar 2006 to 48.3 in Mar 2016. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.7 in Apr 2006 to 48.1 in Apr 2016. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 53.6 in May 2006 to 49.1 in May 2016. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 57.6 in Jun 2006 to 51.9 in Jun 2016. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.2 in Jul 2006 to 53.2 in Jul 2016. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 57.2 in Aug 2006 to 51.7 in Aug 2016. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.9 in Sep 2006 to 48.7 in Sep 2016. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 53.6 in Oct 2006 to 48.7 in Oct 2016. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 53.7 in Nov 2006 to 49.0 in Nov 2016. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 54.3 in Dec 2006 to 49.1 in Dec 2016. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 51.7 in Jan 2006 to 47.9 in Jan 2017. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.1 in Feb 2006 to 48.7 in Feb 2017. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.4 in Mar 2006 to 49.5 in Mar 2017. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.7 in Apr 2006 to 49.6 in Apr 2017. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 53.6 in May 2006 to 49.9 in May 2017. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 57.6 in Jun 2006 to 53.3 in Jun 2017. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.2 in Jul 2006 to 54.8 in Jul 2017. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 57.2 in Aug 2006 to 52.6 in Aug 2017. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.9 in Sep 2006 to 50.2 in Sep 2017. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 53.6 in Oct 2006 to 49.9 in Oct 2017. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 53.7 in Nov 2006 to 49.0 in Nov 2017. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 54.3 in Dec 2006 to 48.9 in Dec 2017. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 51.7 in Jan 2006 to 48.6 in Jan 2018. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.1 in Feb 2006 to 49.4 in Feb 2018. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.4 in Mar 2006 to 50.1 in Mar 2018. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.7 in Apr 2006 to 49.6 in Apr 2018. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 53.6 in May 2006 to 49.9 in May 2018. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 57.6 in Jun 2006 to 53.5 in Jun 2018. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.2 in Jul 2006 to 55.0 in Jul 2018. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 57.2 in Aug 2006 to 51.0 in Aug 2018. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.9 in Sep 2006 to 49.5 in Sep 2018. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 53.6 in Oct 2006 to 49.8 in Oct 2018. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 53.7 in Nov 2006 to 49.6 in Nov 2018. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 54.3 in Dec 2006 to 49.5 in Dec 2018. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 51.7 in Jan 2006 to 48.4 in Jan 2019. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.1 in Feb 2006 to 48.9 in Feb 2019. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.4 in Mar 2006 to 49.8 in Mar 2019. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.7 in Apr 2006 to 49.7 in Apr 2019. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 53.6 in May 2006 to 50.8 in May 2019. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 57.6 in Jun 2006 to 54.7 in Jun 2019. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.2 in Jul 2006 to 56.2 in Jul 2019. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 57.2 in Aug 2006 to 52.7 in Aug 2019. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.9 in Sep 2006 to 50.7 in Sep 2019. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 53.6 in Oct 2006 to 51.4 in Oct 2019. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 53.7 in Nov 2006 to 50.6 in Nov 2019. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 54.3 in Dec 2006 to 50.3 in Dec 2019. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 51.7 in Jan 2006 to 49.7 in Jan 2020. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.1 in Feb 2006 to 50.9 in Feb 2020. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.4 in Mar 2006 to 48.2 in Mar 2020. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.7 in Apr 2006 to 35.0 in Apr 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 53.6 in May 2006 to 38.3 in May 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 57.6 in Jun 2006 to 44.2 in Jun 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.2 in Jul 2006 to 46.7 in Jul 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 57.2 in Aug 2006 to 46.9 in Aug 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Chart I-21D shows vertical drop during the global recession without recovery.

Chart I-21D, US, Employment Population Ratio Ages 16 to 24 Years, Thousands NSA, 2001-2020

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/data

Table I-11 provides US unemployment level ages 16 to 24 years. The number unemployed ages 16 to 24 years increased from 2342 thousand in 2007 to 3634 thousand in 2011 or by 1.292 million and 3451 thousand in 2012 or by 1.109 million. The unemployment level ages 16 to 24 years increased from 2342 in 2007 to 3324 thousand in 2013 or by 0.982 million. The unemployment level ages 16 to 24 years increased from 2342 thousand in 2007 to 2853 thousand in 2014 or by 0.511 million. The unemployment level for ages 16 to 24 increased from 2342 thousand in 2007 to 2467 thousand in 2015, decreasing to 2.211 million in 2016. The unemployment level decreased to 1.955 million in 2017. The unemployment level decreased to 1.807 million in 2018. The unemployment level decreased to 1.770 million in 2019. The unemployment level ages 16 to 24 years increased from 2.467 million in Aug 2006 to 2.945 million in Aug 2020 or increase by 0.478 million in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.

Table I-11, US, Unemployment Level 16-24 Years, Thousands, NSA

Year	Jun	Jul	Aug	Dec	Annual
2001	2775	2585	2461	2412	2371
2002	3167	3034	2688	2374	2683
2003	3542	3200	2724	2248	2746
2004	3191	3018	2585	2294	2638
2005	3010	2688	2519	2055	2521
2006	2860	2750	2467	2007	2353
2007	2883	2622	2388	2323	2342
2008	3450	3408	2990	2928	2830
2009	4653	4387	4004	3532	3760
2010	4481	4374	3903	3352	3857
2011	4248	4110	3820	3161	3634
2012	4180	4011	3672	3153	3451
2013	4198	3821	3453	2536	3324
2014	3429	3353	2844	2317	2853
2015	3138	2829	2390	2114	2467
2016	2789	2648	2221	1859	2211
2017	2389	2217	1930	1640	1955
2018	2309	2119	1720	1626	1807
2019	2111	2115	1805	1516	1770
2020	4517	3973	2945

Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/data/

Chart I-22 provides the unemployment level for ages 16 to 24 from 2001 to 2020. The level rose sharply from 2007 to 2010 with tepid improvement into 2012 and deterioration into 2013-2014 with recent marginal improvement in 2015-2020 alternating with deterioration. There is sharp increase in Apr-May 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event with partial decrease in Jun-Aug 2020.

Chart I-22, US, Unemployment Level 16-24 Years, Thousands SA, 2001-2020

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/data/

Table I-12 provides the rate of unemployment of young peoples in ages 16 to 24 years. The annual rate jumped from 10.5 percent in 2007 to 18.4 percent in 2010, 17.3 percent in 2011 and 16.2 percent in 2012. The rate of youth unemployment fell marginally to 15.5 percent in 2013, declining to 13.4 percent in Dec 2014. The rate of youth unemployment fell to 11.6 percent in 2015, 10.4 percent in 2016 and 9.2 percent in 2017. During the seasonal peak in Jul, the rate of youth unemployed was 18.1 percent in Jul 2011, 17.1 percent in Jul 2012 and 16.3 percent in Jul 2013 compared with 10.8 percent in Jul 2007. The rate of youth unemployment rose from 11.2 percent in Jul 2006 to 16.3 percent in Jul 2013 and likely higher if adding those who ceased searching for a job in frustration none may be available. The rate of youth unemployment rose from 10.8 in Jul 2007 to 14.3 in Jul 2014. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 9.1 percent in Dec 2006 to 12.3 percent in Dec 2013. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.9 percent in Jan 2007 to 14.9 percent in Jan and Feb 2014. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 9.7 percent in Mar 2007 to 14.3 percent in Mar 2014. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 9.7 percent in Apr 2007 to 11.9 percent in Apr 2014. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.2 percent in May 2007 to 13.4 percent in May 2014. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 12.0 percent in Jun 2007 to 15.0 percent in Jun 2014. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.8 in Jul 2007 to 14.3 in Jul 2014. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.5 in Aug 2007 to 13.0 in Aug 2014. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 11.0 in Sep 2007 to 13.6 in Sep 2014. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.3 in Oct 2007 to 12.2 in Oct 2014. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.3 in Nov 2007 to 11.7 in Nov 2014. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.7 in Dec 2007 to 11.2 in Dec 2014. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.9 in Jan 2007 to 12.9 in Jan 2015. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.3 percent in Feb 2007 to 12.2 percent in Feb 2015. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 9.7 in Mar 2007 to 12.3 in Mar 2015. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 9.7 in Apr 2007 to 10.7 in Apr 2015. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.2 in May 2007 to 12.3 in May 2015. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 11.9 in Jun 2006 to 13.7 in Jun 2015. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.8 in Jul 2007 to 12.2 in Jul 2015. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.5 in Aug 2007 to 10.9 in Aug 2015. The rate of youth unemployment decreased from 11.0 in Sep 2007 to 10.9 in Sep 2015. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.3 in Oct 2007 to 10.6 in Oct 2015. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.3 in Nov 2007 to 10.4 in Nov 2015. The rate of youth unemployment decreased from 10.7 in Dec 2007 to 10.1 in Dec 2015. The rate of youth unemployment decreased from 10.9 in Jan 2007 to 10.8 in Jan 2016. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.3 in Feb 2007 to 10.8 in Feb 2016. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 9.7 in Mar 2007 to 10.4 in Mar 2016. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 9.7 in Apr 2007 to 9.9 in Apr 2016. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.2 in May 2007 to 10.6 in May 2016. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 12.0 in Jun 2007 to 12.3 in Jun 2016. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.8 in Jul 2007 to 11.5 in Jul 2016. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 10.5 in Aug 2007 to 10.1 in Aug 2016. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 11.0 in Sep 2007 to 10.2 in Sep 2016. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 10.3 in Oct 2007 to 10.1 in Oct 2016. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 10.3 in Nov 2007 to 9.3 in Nov 2016. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 10.7 in Dec 2007 to 9.0 in Dec 2016. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 10.9 in Jan 2007 to 10.7 in Jan 2017. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 10.3 in Feb 2007 to 10.1 in Feb 2017. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 9.7 in Mar 2007 to 8.9 in Mar 2017. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 9.7 in Apr 2007 to 8.5 in Apr 2017. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 10.2 in May 2007 to 8.8 in May 2017. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 12.0 in Jun 2007 to 10.5 in Jun 2017. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 10.8 in Jul 2007 to 9.6 in Jul 2017. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 10.5 in Aug 2007 to 8.8 in Aug 2017. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 10.8 in Jul 2007 to 9.6 in Jul 2017. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 10.5 in Aug 2007 to 8.8 in Aug 2017. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 11.0 in Sep 2007 to 8.9 in Sep 2017. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 10.3 in Oct 2007 to 8.7 in Oct 2017. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 10.3 in Nov 2007 to 9.1 in Nov 2017. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 10.7 in Dec 2007 to 8.1 in Dec 2017. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 10.9 in Jan 2007 to 9.9 in Jan 2018, decreasing to 9.2 percent in Feb 2018. The rate of youth unemployment fell to 8.2 in Mar 2018, decreasing to 7.6 in Apr 2018. The rate of youth unemployment fell to 8.2 in Mar 2018, decreasing to 7.6 in Apr 2018. The rate of youth unemployment increased to 8.6 in May 2018, increasing to 10.2 in Jun 2018. The rate of youth unemployment decreased to 9.2 percent in Jul 2018, decreasing to 8.2 percent in Aug 2018. The rate of youth unemployment increased to 8.4 percent in Sep 2018, decreasing to 8.0 in Oct 2018. The rate of youth unemployment decreased to 7.7 percent in Nov 2018, increasing to 8.0 percent in Dec 2018. The rate of youth unemployment increased to 10.0 percent in Jan 2019, decreasing to 9.3 percent in Feb 2019. The rate of youth unemployment decreased to 8.5 in Mar 2019, decreasing to 7.4 percent in Apr 2019. The rate of youth unemployment increased to 8.5 in May 2019, increasing to 9.3 in Jun 2019. The rate of youth unemployment decreased to 9.1 in Jul 2019, decreasing to 8.3 in Aug 2019. The rate of youth unemployment decreased to 7.8 in Sep 2019, decreasing to 7.5 in Oct 2019 and stabilizing to 7.5 in Nov 2019. The rate of youth unemployment decreased to 7.4 in Dec 2019, increasing to 9.1 in Jan 2020. The rate of youth unemployment decreased to 8.0 in Feb 2020. The rate of youth unemployment increased to 10.0 in Mar 2020, increasing to 26.9 in Apr 2020 and 25.3 in May 2020, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The rate decreased to 21.4 in Jun 2020, 18.5 in Jul 2020 and 14.4 in Aug 2020, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event The actual rate is higher because of the difficulty in counting those dropping from the labor force because they believe there are no jobs available for them.

Table I-12, US, Unemployment Rate 16-24 Years, NSA, Thousands

Year	Jun	Jul	Aug	Dec	Annual
2001	11.6	10.5	10.7	11.0	10.6
2002	13.2	12.4	11.5	10.9	12.0
2003	14.8	13.3	11.9	10.5	12.4
2004	13.4	12.3	11.1	10.5	11.8
2005	12.6	11.0	10.8	9.4	11.3
2006	11.9	11.2	10.4	9.1	10.5
2007	12.0	10.8	10.5	10.7	10.5
2008	14.4	14.0	13.0	13.7	12.8
2009	19.9	18.5	18.0	17.5	17.6
2010	20.0	19.1	17.8	16.7	18.4
2011	18.9	18.1	17.5	15.5	17.3
2012	18.1	17.1	16.8	15.2	16.2
2013	18.0	16.3	15.6	12.3	15.5
2014	15.0	14.3	13.0	11.2	13.4
2015	13.7	12.2	10.9	10.1	11.6
2016	12.3	11.5	10.1	9.0	10.4
2017	10.5	9.6	8.8	8.1	9.2
2018	10.2	9.2	8.2	8.0	8.6
2019	9.3	9.1	8.3	7.4	8.4
2020	21.4	18.5	14.4

Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/data/

Chart I-23 provides the BLS estimate of the not-seasonally-adjusted rate of youth unemployment for ages 16 to 24 years from 2001 to 2020. The rate of youth unemployment increased sharply during the global recession of 2008 and 2009 but failed to drop faster to earlier lower levels because of cyclically slower growth of GDP. Long-term economic performance in the United States consisted of trend growth of GDP at 3 percent per year and of per capita GDP at 2 percent per year as measured for 1870 to 2010 by Robert E. Lucas (2011May). The economy returned to trend growth after adverse events such as wars and recessions. The key characteristic of adversities such as recessions was much higher rates of growth in expansion periods that permitted the economy to recover output, income and employment losses that occurred during the contractions. Over the business cycle, the economy compensated the losses of contractions with higher growth in expansions to maintain trend growth of GDP of 3 percent and of GDP per capita of 2 percent. There is sharp increase to 26.9 percent in Apr 2020 and 25.3 percent in May 2020 in the rate of youth unemployment in the global recession, in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. There is partial decrease to 21.4 percent in Jun 2020, 18.5 in Jul 2020 and 14.4 in Aug 2020 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.

Chart I-23, US, Unemployment Rate 16-24 Years, Percent, NSA, 2001-2020

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/data/

Chart I-24 provides longer perspective with the rate of youth unemployment in ages 16 to 24 years from 1948 to 2020. The rate of youth unemployment rose to 20 percent during the contractions of the early 1980s and also during the contraction of the global recession in 2008 and 2009. The data illustrate again the argument in this blog that the contractions of the early 1980s are the valid framework for comparison with the global recession of 2008 and 2009 instead of misleading comparisons with the 1930s. During the initial phase of recovery, the rate of youth unemployment 16 to 24 years NSA fell from 18.9 percent in Jun 1983 to 14.5 percent in Jun 1984. In contrast, the rate of youth unemployment 16 to 24 years was nearly the same during the expansion after IIIQ2009: 17.5 percent in Dec 2009, 16.7 percent in Dec 2010, 15.5 percent in Dec 2011, 15.2 percent in Dec 2012, 17.6 percent in Jan 2013, 16.7 percent in Feb 2013, 15.9 percent in Mar 2013, 15.1 percent in Apr 2013. The rate of youth unemployment was 16.4 percent in May 2013, 18.0 percent in Jun 2013, 16.3 percent in Jul 2013 and 15.6 percent in Aug 2013. In Sep 2006, the rate of youth unemployment was 10.5 percent, increasing to 14.8 percent in Sep 2013. The rate of youth unemployment was 10.3 in Oct 2007, increasing to 14.4 percent in Oct 2013. The rate of youth unemployment was 10.3 percent in Nov 2007, increasing to 13.1 percent in Nov 2013. The rate of youth unemployment was 10.7 percent in Dec 2013, increasing to 12.3 percent in Dec 2013. The rate of youth unemployment was 10.9 percent in Jan 2007, increasing to 14.9 percent in Jan 2014. The rate of youth unemployment was 10.3 percent in Feb 2007, increasing to 14.9 percent in Feb 2014. The rate of youth unemployment was 9.7 percent in Mar 2007, increasing to 14.3 percent in Mar 2014. The rate of youth unemployment was 9.7 percent in Apr 2007, increasing to 11.9 percent in Apr 2014. The rate of youth unemployment was 10.2 percent in May 2007, increasing to 13.4 percent in May 2014. The rate of youth unemployment was 12.0 percent in Jun 2007, increasing to 15.0 percent in Jun 2014. The rate of youth unemployment was 10.8 percent in Jul 2007, increasing to 14.3 percent in Jul 2014. The rate of youth unemployment was 10.5 percent in Aug 2007, increasing to 13.0 percent in Aug 2014. The rate of youth unemployment was 11.0 percent in Sep 2007, increasing to 13.6 percent in Sep 2014. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.3 in Oct 2007 to 12.2 in Oct 2014. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.3 percent in Nov 2007 to 11.7 percent in Nov 2014. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.7 in Dec 2007 to 11.2 in Dec 2014. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 9.7 in Mar 2007 to 12.3 in Mar 2015. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 9.7 in Apr 2007 to 10.7 in Apr 2015. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.2 in May 2007 to 12.3 in May 2015. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 12.0 in Jun 2007 to 13.7 in Jun 2015. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.8 in Jul 2007 to 12.2 in Jul 2015. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.5 in Aug 2007 to 10.9 in Aug 2015. The rate of youth unemployment decreased from 11.0 in Sep 2007 to 10.9 in Sep 2015. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.3 in Oct 2007 to 10.6 in Oct 2015, decreasing to 10.4 in Nov 2015. The rate of youth unemployment decreased to 10.1 in Dec 2015. The rate of youth unemployment stood at 10.8 in Jan 2016, 10.8 in Feb 2016, 10.4 in Mar 2016 and 9.9 in Apr 2016. The rate of youth unemployment increased to 10.6 in May 2016 and 12.3 in Jun 2016. The rate of youth unemployment fell to 11.5 in Jul 2016, decreasing to 10.1 in Aug 2016. The rate of youth unemployment increased to 10.2 in Sep 2016, decreasing to 10.1 in Oct 2016 and 9.3 in Nov 2016. The rate of youth unemployment decreased to 9.0 in Dec 2016, increasing to 10.7 in Jan 2017. The rate of youth unemployment fell to 10.1 in Feb 2017, decreasing to 8.9 in Mar 2017. The rate of youth unemployment fell to 8.5 in Apr 2017, increasing to 8.8 in May 2017. The rate of youth unemployment increased to 10.5 percent in Jun 2017, decreasing to 9.6 in Jul 2017. The rate of youth unemployment decreased to 8.8 percent in Aug 2017, increasing to 8.9 percent in Sep 2017. The rate of youth unemployment fell to 8.7 percent in Oct 2017, increasing to 9.1 percent in Nov 2017. The rate of youth unemployment fell to 8.1 percent in Dec 2017, increasing to 9.9 percent in Jan 2018. The rate of youth unemployment decreased to 9.2 percent in Feb 2018, decreasing to 8.2 percent in Mar 2018. The rate of youth unemployment decreased to 7.6 percent in Apr 2018. The rate of youth unemployment increased to 8.6 percent in May 2018 and increased to 10.2 percent in Jun 2018. The rate of youth unemployment decreased to 9.2 percent in Jul 2018, decreasing to 8.2 percent in Aug 2018. The rate of youth unemployment increased to 8.4 percent in Sep 2018, decreasing to 8.0 percent in Oct 2018. The rate of youth unemployment decreased to 7.7 percent in Nov 2018, increasing to 8.0 percent in Dec 2018. The rate of youth unemployment increased to 10.0 percent in Jan 2019, decreasing to 9.3 percent in Feb 2019. The rate of youth unemployment decreased to 8.5 percent in Mar 2018, decreasing to 7.4 percent in Apr 2019. The rate of youth unemployment increased to 8.5 percent in May 2018, increasing to 9.3 percent in Jun 2019. The rate of youth unemployment decreased to 9.1 percent in Jul 2019, decreasing to 8.3 percent in Aug 2019. The rate of youth unemployment decreased to 7.8 percent in Sep 2019, decreasing to 7.5 percent in Oct 2019 and stabilizing to 7.5 percent in Nov 2019. The rate of youth unemployment decreased to 7.4 percent in Dec 2019, increasing to 9.1 percent in Jan 2020. The rate of youth unemployment decreased to 8.0 percent in Feb 2020. The rate of youth unemployment increased to 10.0 in Mar 2020. The rate of youth unemployment increased to 26.9 in Apr 2020 and 25.3 in May 2020 in the global recession, in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The rate of youth unemployment reached 21.4 in Jun 2020, 18.5 in Jul 2020 and 14.4 in Aug 2020 in the global recession, in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The actual rate is higher because of the difficulty in counting those dropping from the labor force because they believe there are no jobs available for them. The difference originates in the vigorous seasonally adjusted annual equivalent average rate of GDP growth of 5.9 percent during the recovery from IQ1983 to IVQ1985 and 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1993 compared with 2.3 percent on average during the first 42 quarters of expansion from IIIQ2009 to IVQ2019. US economic growth has been at only 1.2 percent on average in the cyclical expansion in the 44 quarters from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2020 and in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Boskin (2010Sep) measures that the US economy grew at 6.2 percent in the first four quarters and 4.5 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the second quarter of 1975; and at 7.7 percent in the first four quarters and 5.8 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the first quarter of 1983 (Professor Michael J. Boskin, Summer of Discontent, Wall Street Journal, Sep 2, 2010 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882304575465462926649950.html). There are new calculations using the revision of US GDP and personal income data since 1929 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (http://bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) and the second estimate of GDP for IIQ2020 (https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2020-08/gdp2q20_2nd.pdf). The average of 7.7 percent in the first four quarters of major cyclical expansions is in contrast with the rate of growth in the first four quarters of the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010 of only 2.8 percent obtained by dividing GDP of $15,557.3 billion in IIQ2010 by GDP of $15,134.1 billion in IIQ2009 {[($15,557.3/$15,134.1) -1]100 = 2.8%], or accumulating the quarter on quarter growth rates (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/d-ollar-devaluation-and-yuan.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/contraction-of-united-states-gdp-at-32_57.html). The expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1986 was at the average annual growth rate of 5.7 percent, 5.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1986, 5.1 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1986, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1989, 4.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1989, 4.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1989, 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1989. 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1990, 4.4 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1990, 4.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1990, 4.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1990, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ2019, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1993 and at 7.9 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/d-ollar-devaluation-and-yuan.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/contraction-of-united-states-gdp-at-32_57.html). The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dates a contraction of the US from IQ1990 (Jul) to IQ1991 (Mar) (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html). The expansion lasted until another contraction beginning in IQ2001 (Mar). US GDP contracted 1.3 percent from the pre-recession peak of $8983.9 billion of chained 2009 dollars in IIIQ1990 to the trough of $8865.6 billion in IQ1991 (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IIQ2020 and in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event would have accumulated to 44.7 percent. GDP in IIQ2020 would be $22,807.6 billion (in constant dollars of 2012) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $5525.4 billion than actual $17,282.2 billion. There are more than five trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 34.8 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 20.2 percent of the effective labor force with the largest part originating in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/09/exchange-rate-fluctuations-1.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/thirty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html). Unemployment is decreasing while employment is increasing in initial adjustment of the lockdown of economic activity in the global recession resulting from the COVID-19 event (https://www.bls.gov/cps/employment-situation-covid19-faq-june-2020.pdf). US GDP in IIQ2020 is 24.2 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $15,762.0 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $17,282.5 billion in IIQ2020 or 9.6 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 0.7 percent. Professor John H. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. Cochrane (2016May02) measures GDP growth in the US at average 3.5 percent per year from 1950 to 2000 and only at 1.76 percent per year from 2000 to 2015 with only at 2.0 percent annual equivalent in the current expansion. Cochrane (2016May02) proposes drastic changes in regulation and legal obstacles to private economic activity. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 2.9 percent per year from Jul 1919 to Jul 2020. Growth at 2.9 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 155.1850 in Jul 2020. The actual index NSA in Jul 2020 is 94.7916 which is 38.9 percent below trend. The underperformance of manufacturing in Jul 2020 originates partly in the earlier global recession augmented by the current global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19. Manufacturing grew at the average annual rate of 3.3 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2006. Growth at 3.3 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 162.9490 in Jul 2020. The actual index NSA in Jul 2020 is 94.7916, which is 41.8 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 1.6 percent between Dec 1986 and Jul 2020. Using trend growth of 1.6 percent per year, the index would increase to 132.2418 in Jul 2020. The output of manufacturing at 94.7916 in Jul 2020 is 28.3 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Using the NAICS (North American Industry Classification System), manufacturing output fell from the high of 110.5147 in Jun 2007 to the low of 86.3800 in Apr 2009 or 21.8 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased from 86.3800 in Apr 2009 to 95.7434 in Jul 2020 or 10.8 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased at the annual equivalent rate of 3.5 percent from Dec 1986 to Dec 2006. Growth at 3.5 percent would increase the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 164.4646 in Jul 2020. The NAICS index at 95.7434 in Jul 2020 is 41.8 below trend. The NAICS manufacturing output index grew at 1.7 percent annual equivalent from Dec 1999 to Dec 2006. Growth at 1.7 percent would raise the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 131.8850 in Jul 2020. The NAICS index at 95.7434 in Jul 2020 is 27.4 percent below trend under this alternative calculation.

Chart I-24, US, Unemployment Rate 16-24 Years, Percent NSA, 1948-2020

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/data/

It is more difficult to move to other jobs after a certain age because of fewer available opportunities for mature individuals than for new entrants into the labor force. Middle-aged unemployed are less likely to find another job. Table I-13 provides the unemployment level ages 45 years and over. The number unemployed ages 45 years and over rose from 1.607 million in Oct 2006 to 4.576 million in Oct 2010 or by 184.8 percent. The number of unemployed ages 45 years and over declined to 3.800 million in Oct 2012 that is still higher by 136.5 percent than in Oct 2006. The number unemployed age 45 and over increased from 1.704 million in Nov 2006 to 3.861 million in Nov 2012, or 126.6 percent. The number unemployed age 45 and over is still higher by 98.5 percent at 3.383 million in Nov 2013 than 1.704 million in Nov 2006. The number unemployed age 45 and over jumped from 1.794 million in Dec 2006 to 4.762 million in Dec 2010 or 165.4 percent. At 3.927 million in Dec 2012, mature unemployment is higher by 2.133 million or 118.9 percent higher than 1.794 million in Dec 2006. The level of unemployment of those aged 45 year or more of 3.632 million in Oct 2013 is higher by 2.025 million than 1.607 million in Oct 2006 or higher by 126.0 percent. The number of unemployed 45 years and over increased from 1.794 million in Dec 2006 to 3.378 million in Nov 2013 or 88.3 percent. The annual number of unemployed 45 years and over increased from 1.848 million in 2006 to 3.719 million in 2013 or 101.2 percent. The number of unemployed 45 years and over increased from 2.126 million in Jan 2006 to 4.394 million in Jan 2013, by 2.618 million or 106.7 percent. The number of unemployed 45 years and over rose from 2.126 million in Jan 2006 to 3.508 million in Jan 2014, by 1.382 million or 65.0 percent. The level of unemployed 45 years or older increased 2.051 million or 99.8 percent from 2.056 million in Feb 2006 to 4.107 million in Feb 2013 and at 3.490 million in Feb 2014 is higher by 69.7 percent than in Feb 2006. The number of unemployed 45 years and over increased 2.048 million or 108.9 percent from 1.881 million in Mar 2006 to 3.929 million in Mar 2013 and at 3.394 million in Mar 2014 is higher by 80.4 percent than in Mar 2006. The number of unemployed 45 years and over increased 1.846 million or 100.2 percent from 1.843 million in Apr 2006 to 3.689 million in Apr 2013 and at 3.006 million in Apr 2014 is higher by 1.163 million or 63.1 percent. The number of unemployed ages 45 years and over increased 102.1 percent from 1.784 million in May 2006 to 3.605 million in May 2014 and at 2.913 million in May 2014 is higher by 63.3 percent than in May 2007.

The number of unemployed ages 45 years and over increased 102.1 percent from 1.805 million in Jun 2007 to 3.648 million in Jun 2013 and at 2.832 million in Jun 2014 is higher by 56.9 percent than in Jun 2007. The number of unemployed ages 45 years and over increased 81.5 percent from 2.053 million in Jul 2007 to 3.727 million in Jul 2013 and at 3.083 million in Jul 2014 is higher by 50.2 percent than in Jul 2007. The level unemployed ages 45 years and over increased 84.4 percent from 1.956 million in Aug 2007 to 3.607 million in Aug 2013 and at 3.037 million in Aug 2014 is 55.2 percent higher than in Aug 2007. The level unemployed ages 45 years and over increased 90.7 percent from 1.854 million in Sep 2007 to 3.535 million in Sep 2013 and at 2.640 million in Sep 2014 is 42.4 percent higher than in Sep 2007. The level unemployed ages 45 years and over increased 1.747 million from 1.885 million in Oct 2007 to 3.632 million in Oct 2013 and at 2.606 million in Oct 2014 is 38.2 percent higher than in Oct 2007. The level unemployed ages 45 years and over increased 1.458 million from 1.925 million in Nov 2007 to 3.383 million in Nov 2013 and at 2.829 million in Nov 2014 is 47.0 percent higher than in Nov 2007. The level of unemployed ages 45 years and over increased 1.258 million from Dec 2007 to Dec 2013 and at 2.667 million in Dec 2014 is 25.8 higher than in Dec 2007. The level unemployed ages 45 years and over increased 1.353 million from Jan 2007 to Jan 2015 and at 3.077 million in Jan 2015 is 42.8 percent higher than in Jan 2007. The level unemployed ages 45 years and over increased 1.352 million from 2.138 million in Feb 2007 to 3.490 million in Feb 2014 and at 2.991 million in Feb 2015 is 39.9 percent higher than in Feb 2007. The level of unemployed ages 45 years and over increased 1.363 million from 2.031 million in Mar 2007 to 3.394 million in Mar 2014 and at 2.724 million in Mar 2015 is 34.1 percent higher than in Mar 2007. The level of unemployed ages 45 years and over increased from 1.871 million in Apr 2007 to 3.006 million in Apr 2014 and at 2.579 million in Apr 2015 is 37.8 higher than in Apr 2007. The level of unemployed ages 45 years and over increased from 1.803 million in May 2007 to 2.913 million in Jun 2014 and at 2.457 million in May 2015 is 36.3 percent higher than in May 2007. The level of unemployed ages 45 years and over increased from 1.805 million in Jun 2007 to 2.832 million in Jun 2014 and at 2.359 million in Jun 2015 is 30.7 percent higher than in Jun 2007. The level of unemployed ages 45 years and over increased from 2.053 million in Jul 2007 to 3.083 million in Jul 2014 and at 2.666 million in Jul 2015 is 30.0 percent higher than in Jul 2007. The level of unemployed ages 45 years and over increased from 1.956 million in Aug 2007 to 3.037 million in Aug 2014 and at 2.693 million in Aug 2015 is 37.7 higher than in Aug 2007. The level of unemployed ages 45 years and over increased from 1.854 million in Sep 2007 to 2.640 million in Sep 2015 and at 2.388 million in Sep 2015 is 28.8 percent higher than in Sep 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 years and over increased from 1.885 million in Oct 2007 to 2.606 million in Oct 2014 and at 2.290 million in Oct 2015 is 21.5 percent higher than in Oct 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 years and over increased from 1.925 million in Nov 2007 to 2.829 million in Nov 2014 and at 2.349 million in Nov 2015 is 22.0 percent higher than in Nov 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 years and over increased from 2.120 million in Dec 2007 to 2.667 million in Dec 2014 and at 2.317 million in Dec 2015 is 9.3 percent higher than in Dec 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.155 million in Jan 2007 to 3.077 million in Jan 2015 and at 2.736 million in Jan 2016 is 27.0 percent higher than in Jan 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.138 million in Feb 2007 to 2.991 million in Feb 2015 and at 2.744 million in Feb 2016 is 28.3 percent higher than in Feb 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.031 million in Mar 2007 to 2.724 million in Mar 2015 and at 2.747 million in Mar 2016 is 35.3 percent higher than in Mar 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.871 million in Apr 2007 to 2.579 million in Apr 2015 and at 2.410 million in Apr 2016 is 28.8 percent higher than in Apr 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.803 million in May 2007 to 2.457 million in May 2015 and at 2.190 million in May 2016 is 21.5 percent higher than in May 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.805 million in Jun 2007 to 2.359 million in Jun 2015 and at 2.345 million in Jun 2016 is 29.9 percent higher than in Jun 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.053 million in Jul 2007 to 2.666 million in Jul 2015 and at 2.619 million in Jul 2016 is 27.6 percent higher than in Jul 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.956 million in Aug 2007 to 2.693 million in Aug 2015 and at 2.565 million in Aug 2016 is 31.1 percent higher than in Aug 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.854 million in Sep 2007 to 2.388 million in Sep 2015 and at 2.414 million in Sep 2016 is 30.2 percent higher than in Sep 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.885 million in Oct 2007 to 2.290 million in Oct 2015 and at 2.337 million in Oct 2016 is 24.0 percent higher than in Oct 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.925 million in Nov 2007 to 2.349 million in Nov 2015 and at 2.355 million in Nov 2016 is 22.3 percent higher than in Nov 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.120 million in Dec 2007 to 2.317 million in Dec 2015 and at 2.360 million in Dec 2016 is 11.3 percent higher than in Dec 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.155 million in Jan 2007 to 2.736 million in Jan 2016 and at 2.585 million in Jan 2017 is 20.0 percent higher than in Jan 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.138 million in Feb 2007 to 2.744 million in Feb 2016 and at 2.493 million in Feb 2017 is 16.6 percent higher than in Feb 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.031 million in Mar 2007 to 2.747 million in Mar 2016 and at 2.413 million in Mar 2017 is 18.8 percent higher than in Mar 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.031 million in Mar 2007 to 2.747 million in Mar 2016 and at 2.413 million in Mar 2017 is 18.8 percent higher than in Mar 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.871 million in Apr 2007 to 2.410 million in Apr 2016 and at 2.202 million in Apr 2017 is 17.7 percent higher than in Apr 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.803 million in May 2007 to 2.190 million in May 2016 and at 2.052 million in May 2017 is 13.8 percent higher than in May 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.805 million in Jun 2007 to 2.345 million in Jun 2016 and at 2.256 million in Jun 2017 is 25.0 percent higher than in Jun 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.053 million in Jul 2007 to 2.619 million in Jul 2016 and at 2.335 million in Jul 2017 is 13.7 percent higher than in Jul 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.956 million in Aug 2007 to 2.565 million in Aug 2016 and at 2.444 million in Aug 2017 is 24.9 percent higher than in Aug 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.854 million in Sep 2007 to 2.414 million in Sep 2016 and at 2.140 million in Sep 2017 is 15.4 percent higher than in Sep 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.885 million in Oct 2007 to 2.337 million in Oct 2016 and at 1.899 million in Oct 2017 is 0.7 percent higher than in Oct 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.925 million in Nov 2007 to 2.355 million in Nov 2016 and at 1.958 million in Nov 2017 is 1.7 percent higher than in Nov 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.120 million in Dec 2007 to 2.360 million in Dec 2016 and at 2.079 million in Dec 2017 is 1.9 percent lower than in Dec 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.155 million in Jan 2007 to 2.585 million in Jan 2017 and at 2.300 million in Jan 2018 is 6.7 percent higher than in Jan 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.138 million in Feb 2007 to 2.493 million in Feb 2017 and at 2.354 million in Feb 2018 is 10.1 percent higher than in Feb 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.031 million in Mar 2007 to 2.413 million in Mar 2017 and at 2.266 million in Mar 2018 is 11.6 percent higher than in Mar 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.871 million in Apr 2007 to 2.202 million in Apr 2017 and at 1.937 million in Apr 2018 is 3.5 percent higher than in Apr 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.803 million in May 2007 to 2.052 million in May 2017 and at 1.774 million in May 2018 is 1.6 percent lower than in May 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.805 million in Jun 2007 to 2.256 million in Jun 2017 and at 2.102 million in Jun 2018 is 16.5 percent higher than in Jun 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.053 million in Jul 2007 to 2.335 million in Jul 2017 and at 2.235 million in Jul 2018 is 8.9 percent higher than in Jul 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.956 million in Aug 2007 to 2.444 million in Aug 2017 and at 2.096 million in Aug 2018 is 7.2 percent higher than in Aug 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.854 million in Sep 2007 to 2.140 million in Sep 2017 and at 1.872 million in Sep 2018 is 1.0 percent higher than in Sep 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.885 million in Oct 2007 to 1.889 million in Oct 2017 and at 1.833 million in Oct 2018 is 2.8 percent lower than in Oct 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.925 million in Nov 2007 to 1.958 million in Nov 2017 and at 1.850 million in Nov 2018 is 3.9 percent lower than in Nov 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 2.120 million in Dec 2007 to 2.079 million in Dec 2017 and at 2.026 million in Dec 2018 is 4.4 percent lower than in Dec 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.155 million in Jan 2007 to 2.300 million in Jan 2018 and at 2.393 million in Jan 2019 is 11.0 percent higher than in Jan 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.138 million in Feb 2007 to 2.354 million in Feb 2018 and at 2.149 million in Feb 2019 is 0.5 percent higher than in Feb 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.031 million in Mar 2007 to 2.266 million in Mar 2018 and at 2.091 million in Mar 2019 is 3.0 percent higher than in Mar 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.871 million in Apr 2007 to 1.937 million in Apr 2018 and at 1.707 million in Apr 2019 is 8.8 percent lower than in Apr 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 1.803 million in May 2007 to 1.774 million in May 2018 and at 1.712 million in May 2019 is 5.0 percent lower than in May 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.805 million in Jun 2007 to 2.102 million in Jun 2018 and at 1.976 million in Jun 2019 is 9.5 percent higher than in Jun 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.053 million in Jul 2007 to 2.235 million in Jul 2018 and at 2.053 million in Jul 2019 is 0.0 percent higher than in Jul 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.956 million in Aug 2007 to 2.096 million in Aug 2018 and at 2.018 million in Aug 2019 is 3.2 percent higher than in Aug 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.854 million in Sep 2007 to 1.872 million in Sep 2018 and at 1.755 million in Sep 2019 is 5.3 percent lower than in Sep 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 1.885 million in Oct 2007 to 1.833 million in Oct 2018 and at 1.703 million in Oct 2019 is 9.7 percent lower than in Oct 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 1.925 million in Nov 2007 to 1.850 million in Nov 2018 and at 1.732 million in Nov 2019 is 10.0 percent lower than in Nov 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 2.120 million in Dec 2007 to 2.026 million in Dec 2018 and at 1.713 million in Dec 2019 is 19.2 percent lower than in Dec 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.155 million in Jan 2007 to 2.393 million in Jan 2019 and at 1.990 million in Jan 2020 is 7.7 percent lower than in Jan 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.138 million in Feb 2007 to 2.149 million in Feb 2019 and at 2.000 million in Feb 2020 is 6.5 percent lower than in Feb 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.031 million in Mar 2007 to 2.091 million in Mar 2019 and at 2.462 million in Mar 2020 is 21.2 percent higher than in Mar 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 1.871 million in Apr 2007 to 1.707 million in Apr 2019 and at 8.819 million in Apr 2020 is 371.4 percent higher than in Apr 2007 in the global recession, in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 1.871 million in Apr 2007 to 1.707 million in Apr 2019 and at 8.819 million in Apr 2020 is 371.4 percent higher than in Apr 2007 in the global recession, in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 1.803 million in May 2007 to 1.712 million in May 2019 and at 7.614 million in May 2020 is 322.3 percent higher than in May 2007 in the global recession, in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.805 million in Jun 2007 to 1.976 million in Jun 2019 and at 6.290 million in Jun 2020 is 248.5 percent higher than in Jun 2007 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over did not change from 2.053 million in Jul 2007 to 2.053 million in Jul 2019 and at 5.966 million in Jul 2020 is 190.6 percent higher than in Jul 2007 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.956 million in Aug 2007 to 2.018 million in Aug 2019 and at 5.023 million in Aug 2020 is 156.8 percent higher than in Aug 2007 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The actual number unemployed is likely much higher because many are not accounted who abandoned job searches in frustration there may not be a job for them. Recent improvements may be illusory. The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. US economic growth has been at only 1.2 percent on average in the cyclical expansion in the 44 quarters from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2020 and in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Boskin (2010Sep) measures that the US economy grew at 6.2 percent in the first four quarters and 4.5 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the second quarter of 1975; and at 7.7 percent in the first four quarters and 5.8 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the first quarter of 1983 (Professor Michael J. Boskin, Summer of Discontent, Wall Street Journal, Sep 2, 2010 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882304575465462926649950.html). There are new calculations using the revision of US GDP and personal income data since 1929 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (http://bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) and the second estimate of GDP for IIQ2020 (https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2020-08/gdp2q20_2nd.pdf). The average of 7.7 percent in the first four quarters of major cyclical expansions is in contrast with the rate of growth in the first four quarters of the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010 of only 2.8 percent obtained by dividing GDP of $15,557.3 billion in IIQ2010 by GDP of $15,134.1 billion in IIQ2009 {[($15,557.3/$15,134.1) -1]100 = 2.8%], or accumulating the quarter on quarter growth rates (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/d-ollar-devaluation-and-yuan.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/contraction-of-united-states-gdp-at-32_57.html). The expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1986 was at the average annual growth rate of 5.7 percent, 5.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1986, 5.1 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1986, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1989, 4.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1989, 4.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1989, 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1989. 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1990, 4.4 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1990, 4.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1990, 4.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1990, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ2019, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1993 and at 7.9 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/d-ollar-devaluation-and-yuan.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/contraction-of-united-states-gdp-at-32_57.html). The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dates a contraction of the US from IQ1990 (Jul) to IQ1991 (Mar) (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html). The expansion lasted until another contraction beginning in IQ2001 (Mar). US GDP contracted 1.3 percent from the pre-recession peak of $8983.9 billion of chained 2009 dollars in IIIQ1990 to the trough of $8865.6 billion in IQ1991 (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IIQ2020 and in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event would have accumulated to 44.7 percent. GDP in IIQ2020 would be $22,807.6 billion (in constant dollars of 2012) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $5525.4 billion than actual $17,282.2 billion. There are more than five trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 34.8 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 20.2 percent of the effective labor force with the largest part originating in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/09/exchange-rate-fluctuations-1.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/thirty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html). Unemployment is decreasing while employment is increasing in initial adjustment of the lockdown of economic activity in the global recession resulting from the COVID-19 event (https://www.bls.gov/cps/employment-situation-covid19-faq-june-2020.pdf). US GDP in IIQ2020 is 24.2 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $15,762.0 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $17,282.5 billion in IIQ2020 or 9.6 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 0.7 percent. Professor John H. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. Cochrane (2016May02) measures GDP growth in the US at average 3.5 percent per year from 1950 to 2000 and only at 1.76 percent per year from 2000 to 2015 with only at 2.0 percent annual equivalent in the current expansion. Cochrane (2016May02) proposes drastic changes in regulation and legal obstacles to private economic activity. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 2.9 percent per year from Jul 1919 to Jul 2020. Growth at 2.9 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 155.1850 in Jul 2020. The actual index NSA in Jul 2020 is 94.7916 which is 38.9 percent below trend. The underperformance of manufacturing in Jul 2020 originates partly in the earlier global recession augmented by the current global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19. Manufacturing grew at the average annual rate of 3.3 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2006. Growth at 3.3 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 162.9490 in Jul 2020. The actual index NSA in Jul 2020 is 94.7916, which is 41.8 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 1.6 percent between Dec 1986 and Jul 2020. Using trend growth of 1.6 percent per year, the index would increase to 132.2418 in Jul 2020. The output of manufacturing at 94.7916 in Jul 2020 is 28.3 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Using the NAICS (North American Industry Classification System), manufacturing output fell from the high of 110.5147 in Jun 2007 to the low of 86.3800 in Apr 2009 or 21.8 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased from 86.3800 in Apr 2009 to 95.7434 in Jul 2020 or 10.8 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased at the annual equivalent rate of 3.5 percent from Dec 1986 to Dec 2006. Growth at 3.5 percent would increase the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 164.4646 in Jul 2020. The NAICS index at 95.7434 in Jul 2020 is 41.8 below trend. The NAICS manufacturing output index grew at 1.7 percent annual equivalent from Dec 1999 to Dec 2006. Growth at 1.7 percent would raise the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 131.8850 in Jul 2020. The NAICS index at 95.7434 in Jul 2020 is 27.4 percent below trend under this alternative calculation.

Table I-13, US, Unemployment Level 45 Years and Over, NSA

Year	Jun	Jul	Aug	Dec	Annual
2000	1163	1253	1339	1217	1249
2001	1371	1539	1640	1901	1576
2002	2190	2173	2114	2210	2114
2003	2212	2281	2301	2130	2253
2004	2182	2116	2082	2086	2149
2005	1868	2119	1895	1963	2009
2006	1813	1985	1869	1794	1848
2007	1805	2053	1956	2120	1966
2008	2211	2492	2695	3485	2540
2009	4505	4757	4683	4960	4500
2010	4564	4821	5128	4762	4879
2011	4559	4772	4592	4182	4537
2012	4084	4405	4179	3927	4133
2013	3648	3727	3607	3378	3719
2014	2832	3083	3037	2667	3000
2015	2359	2666	2693	2317	2574
2016	2345	2619	2565	2360	2485
2017	2256	2335	2444	2079	2238
2018	2102	2235	2096	2026	2054
2019	1976	2053	2018	1713	1917
2020	6290	5966	5023

Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/data/

Chart I-25 provides the level unemployed ages 45 years and over. There was an increase in the recessions of the 1980s, 1991 and 2001 followed by declines to earlier levels. The current expansion of the economy after IIIQ2009 has not been sufficiently vigorous to reduce significantly middle-age unemployment. Recent improvements could be illusory because many abandoned job searches in frustration that there may not be jobs for them and are not counted as unemployed.

Chart I-25, US, Unemployment Level Ages 45 Years and Over, Thousands, NSA, 1976-2020

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/data/

Chart I-25A provides the unemployment level ages 45 years and over from Jan 2016 to Jul 2020. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 1.871 million in Apr 2007 to 1.707 million in Apr 2019 and at 8.819 million in Apr 2020 is 371.4 percent higher than in Apr 2007 in the global recession, in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 1.871 million in Apr 2007 to 1.707 million in Apr 2019 and at 8.819 million in Apr 2020 is 371.4 percent higher than in Apr 2007 in the global recession, in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 1.803 million in May 2007 to 1.712 million in May 2019 and at 7.614 million in May 2020 is 322.3 percent higher than in May 2007 in the global recession, in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.805 million in Jun 2007 to 1.976 million in Jun 2019 and at 6.290 million in Jun 2020 is 248.5 percent higher than in Jun 2007 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over did not change from 2.053 million in Jul 2007 to 2.053 million in Jul 2019 and at 5.966 million in Jul 2020 is 190.6 percent higher than in Jul 2007 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.956 million in Aug 2007 to 2.018 million in Aug 2019 and at 5.023 million in Aug 2020 is 156.8 percent higher than in Aug 2007 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.

Chart I-25A, US, Unemployment Level Ages 45 Years and Over, Thousands, NSA, 2016-2020

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/data/

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