CMP Associates Regulation Blog

Chart V-3C provides nonfarm payroll manufacturing jobs in the United States from Jan 2007 to Jan 2020. Nonfarm payroll manufacturing jobs fell from 13.987 million in Jun 2007 to 12.773 million in Jan 2020, or 1.214 million.

Chart V-3C, United States, Payroll Manufacturing Jobs, NSA, Jan 2007 to Jan 2020, Thousands

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm

Chart V-3D provides the index of US manufacturing (NAICS) from Jan 1972 to Jan 2020. The index continued increasing during the decline of manufacturing jobs after the early 1980s. There are likely effects of changes in the composition of manufacturing with also changes in productivity and trade.

Chart V-3D, United States Manufacturing (NAICS) NSA, Jan 1972 to Jan 2020

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Chart V-3E provides the US noninstitutional civilian population, or those in condition of working, from Jan 1948, when first available, to Jan 2020. The noninstitutional civilian population increased from 170.042 million in Jun 1981 to 259.502 million in Jan 2020, or 89.460 million.

Chart V-3E, United States, Civilian Noninstitutional Population, Million, NSA, Jan 1948 to Jan 2020

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Chart V-3F provides manufacturing jobs in the United States from Jan 1939 to Jan 2020. Nonfarm payroll manufacturing jobs decreased from a peak of 18.890 million in Jun 1981 to 12.773 million in Jan 2020.

Chart V-3C, United States, Payroll Manufacturing Jobs, NSA, Jan 1939 to Jan 2020, Thousands

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Chart V-3C, United States, Payroll Manufacturing Jobs, NSA, Jan 1939 to Dec 2019, Thousands

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Table V-3, Percentage Changes of GDP Quarter on Prior Quarter and on Same Quarter Year Earlier, ∆%

There is global stress in manufacturing. Table V-3B provides month and 12-month percentage changes of new orders in manufacturing and output of manufacturing in Germany.

Table V-3B, Germany, Manufacturing Orders and Manufacturing Output, ∆% Month and 12 Months

	MFG New Orders Month ∆%	MFG New Orders 12 Months ∆%	MFG Output Month ∆%	MFG Output 12 Month ∆%
Dec 2019	0.5	-6.9	-1.2	-5.8
Nov	-1.3	-8.6	-0.7	-7.3
Oct	-1.5	-5.5	-1.6	-5.9
Sep	1.6	-2.2	0.3	-1.7
Aug	-2.5	-9.3	-1.2	-7.6
Jul	-1.3	-2.2	1.1	-1.1
Jun	3.9	-10.8	-1.3	-14.6
May	-3.2	-3.8	-0.7	1.0
Apr	1.2	-5.2	-0.3	-4.3
Mar	-0.1	-7.0	-2.2	-3.9
Feb	-2.9	-7.1	1.4	-0.2
Jan	-2.3	-3.6	-0.7	-3.8
Dec 2018	1.7	-8.2	0.8	-6.7
Dec 2017	4.0	3.9	0.3	3.7
Dec 2016	6.4	11.2	-0.3	2.0

Source: Federal Statistical Agency of Germany, https://www.destatis.de/EN/Home/_node.html

Table V-3 provides the latest available estimates of GDP for the regions and countries followed in this blog from IQ2012 to IVQ2018 available now for all countries. There are estimates for all countries for IQ2019 and for IIQ2019 for most countries. There are preliminary estimates for most countries for IIIQ2019 and some for IVQ2019. Growth is weak throughout most of the world.

J apan. The GDP of Japan increased 1.2 percent in IQ2012, 4.9 percent at SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) and 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier but part of the jump could be the low level a year earlier because of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan is experiencing difficulties with the overvalued yen because of worldwide capital flight originating in zero interest rates with risk aversion in an environment of softer growth of world trade. Japan’s GDP fell 0.7 percent in IIQ2012 at the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of minus 2.8 percent, which is much lower than 4.9 percent in IQ2012. Growth of 2.9 percent in IIQ2012 in Japan relative to IIQ2011 has effects of the low level of output because of Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IIIQ2012 at the SAAR of minus 1.5 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2012 at the SAAR of 1.0 percent and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan grew 1.2 percent in IQ2013 at the SAAR of 5.0 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2013 at the SAAR of 3.2 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP grew 0.8 percent in IIIQ2013 at the SAAR of 3.4 percent and increased 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Japan’s GDP changed 0.0 percent at the SAAR of minus 0.2 percent, increasing 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 1.0 percent in IQ2014 at the SAAR of 4.1 percent and increased 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Japan’s GDP fell 1.9 percent at the SAAR of minus 7.4 percent and fell 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 at the SAAR of 0.3 percent and fell 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, Japan’s GDP grew 0.5 percent, at the SAAR of 2.0 percent, decreasing 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 1.4 percent in IQ2015 at the SAAR of 5.6 percent and increased 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2015 at the SAAR of 0.5 percent and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan decreased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2015 at the SAAR of minus 0.3 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IVQ2015 at the SAAR of minus 1.5 percent and grew 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, the GDP of Japan increased 0.5 percent at the SAAR of 2.1 percent and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2016 at the SAAR of 0.6 percent and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of Japan increased 0.2 percent at the SAAR of 0.9 percent and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2016 at the SAAR of 1.1 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, the GDP of Japan increased 1.2 percent at the SAAR of 4.8 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2017 at the SAAR of 1.4 percent and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, the GDP of Japan increased 0.6 percent at the SAAR of 2.3 percent and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2017, at the SAAR of 1.6 percent, and increased 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, the GDP of Japan decreased 0.4 percent, at the SAAR of minus 1.6 percent and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2018, at the SAAR of 1.8 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, the GDP of Japan contracted 0.8 percent at the SAAR of minus 3.2 percent and decreased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2018, at the SAAR of 2.1 percent and decreased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, the GDP of Japan increased 0.6 percent at the SAAR of 2.6 percent and grew 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2019, at the SAAR of 1.9 percent and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, the GDP of Japan increased 0.1 percent at the SAAR of 0.5 percent and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP decreased 1.6 percent in IVQ2019, at the SAAR of minus 6.3 percent and decreased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier.
China. China’s GDP grew 1.9 percent in IQ2012, annualizing to 7.8 percent, and 8.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 2.1 percent in IIQ2012, which annualizes to 8.7 percent, and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 1.8 percent in IIIQ2012, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and 7.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, China grew at 2.0 percent, which annualizes at 8.2 percent, and 8.1 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, China grew at 1.9 percent, which annualizes at 7.8 percent, and 7.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, China grew at 1.8 percent, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 2.1 percent in IIIQ2013, which annualizes at 8.7 percent, and increased 7.9 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 1.6 percent in IVQ2013, which annualized to 6.6 percent, and 7.7 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP grew 1.8 percent in IQ2014, which annualizes to 7.4 percent, and 7.5 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP grew 1.8 percent in IIQ2014, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP grew 1.8 percent in IIIQ2014, which is equivalent to 7.4 percent in a year, and 7.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew 1.7 percent in IVQ2014, which annualizes at 7.0 percent, and 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 1.8 percent in IQ2015, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew 1.8 percent in IIQ2015, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and increased 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2015, China’s GDP grew at 1.7 percent, which annualizes at 7.0 percent, and increased 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 1.6 percent in IVQ2015, which annualizes at 6.6 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew 1.5 percent in IQ2016, which annualizes at 6.1 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2016, the GDP of China increased 1.9 percent, which annualizes to 7.8 percent, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China increased at 1.7 percent in IIIQ2016, which annualizes at 7.0 percent, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China increased at 1.6 percent in IVQ2016, which annualizes at 6.6 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China increased at 1.6 percent in IQ2017, which annualizes at 6.6 percent and increased 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP increased at 1.8 percent in IIQ2017, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and increased 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China increased 1.7 percent in IIIQ2017, which annualizes at 7.0 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP increased at 1.6 percent in IVQ2017, which annualizes at 6.6 percent, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 1.5 percent in IQ2018, which annualizes to 6.1 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP increased at 1.8 percent in IIQ2018, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 1.6 percent in IIIQ2018, which annualizes to 6.6 percent, and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP increased 1.5 percent in IVQ2018, which annualized at 6.1 percent, and increased 6.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 1.5 percent in IQ2019, which annualizes at 6.1 percent and increased 6.4 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP increased 1.4 percent in IIQ2019, which annualized at 5.7 percent, and increased 6.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 1.6 percent in IIIQ2019, which annualizes at 6.6 percent and increased 6.0 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP grew 1.4 percent in IVQ2019, which annualizes at 5.7 percent, and grew 6.0 percent relative to a year earlier. There was decennial change in leadership in China (http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/special/18cpcnc/index.htm). Xi Jinping initiated a second term of leadership in Oct 2017 (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-10/25/c_136705344.htm). Growth rates of GDP of China in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier have been declining from 2011 to 2019.
Euro Area. GDP fell 0.2 percent in the euro area in IQ2012 and decreased 0.5 in IQ2012 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP contracted 0.3 percent IIQ2012 and fell 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.1 percent and declined 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.4 percent relative to the prior quarter and fell 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, the GDP of the euro area fell 0.4 percent and decreased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2013, euro area GDP increased 0.3 percent and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2013 and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The euro area’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 0.7 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The euro area’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2016 and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, euro area GDP increased 0.6 percent and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2017 and increased 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.8 percent and grew 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area grew 0.8 percent in IVQ2017 and increased 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent and grew 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area grew 0.3 percent in IIQ2018 and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2018 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2019 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier.
Germany. The GDP of Germany increased 0.2 percent in IQ2012 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier but 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier when adjusted for calendar effects (CA). In IIIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IVQ2012 and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, Germany’s GDP decreased 0.5 percent and fell 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 1.1 percent and grew 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2013 and grew 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 1.0 percent in IQ2014 and grew 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Germany’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.9 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany decreased 0.2 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2015 and grew 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2015 and grew 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2015 and grew 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, the GDP of Germany increased 0.8 percent and grew 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 3.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of Germany increased 0.2 percent and grew 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2016 and grew 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, the GDP of Germany increased 1.2 percent and grew 3.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2017 and grew 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier and 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier adjusting for calendar effects (CA). In IIIQ2017, the GDP of Germany increased 0.9 percent and increased 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier and 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2017, 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier and 3.4 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany increased 0.1 percent in IQ2018 and grew 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier and 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2018, 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier and 2.1 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany decreased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2018, increasing 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier and 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP changed 0.2 percent in IVQ2018, increasing 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier and 0.6 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany increased 0.5 percent in IQ2019, increasing 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier and increasing 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP contracted 0.2 percent in IIQ2019, decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier and increased 0.3 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2019, increasing 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier and increasing 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2019, increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier (CA).
United States. Growth of US GDP in IQ2012 was 0.8 percent, at SAAR of 3.2 percent and higher by 2.7 percent relative to IQ2011. US GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2012, 1.7 percent at SAAR and 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, US GDP grew 0.1 percent, 0.5 percent at SAAR and 2.5 percent relative to IIIQ2011. In IVQ2012, US GDP grew 0.1 percent, 0.5 percent at SAAR and 1.5 percent relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, US GDP grew at 3.6 percent SAAR, 0.9 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.6 percent relative to the same quarter in 2012. In IIQ2013, US GDP grew at 0.5 percent in SAAR, 0.1 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.3 percent relative to IIQ2012. US GDP grew at 3.2 percent in SAAR in IIIQ2013, 0.8 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.9 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/sharp-worldwide-contraction-of.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/decreasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html). In IVQ2013, US GDP grew 0.8 percent at 3.2 percent SAAR and 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, US GDP decreased 0.3 percent, increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier and fell 1.1 percent at SAAR. In IIQ2014, US GDP increased 1.4 percent at 5.5 percent SAAR and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP increased 1.2 percent in IIIQ2014 at 5.0 percent SAAR and increased 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, US GDP increased 0.6 percent at SAAR of 2.3 percent and increased 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IQ2015 at SAAR of 3.2 percent and grew 4.0 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 3.0 percent in IIQ2015, increasing 0.7 percent in the quarter and 3.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2015 at SAAR of 1.3 percent and grew 2.4 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 0.1 percent in IVQ2015, increasing 0.0 percent in the quarter and 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, US GDP grew 0.5 percent at SAAR of 2.0 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 1.9 percent in IIQ2016, increasing 0.5 percent in the quarter and 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, US GDP grew 0.5 percent at SAAR of 2.2 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.0 percent in IVQ2016, increasing 0.5 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, US GDP grew 0.6 percent at SAAR of 2.3 percent and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.2 percent in IIQ2017, increasing 0.5 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, US GDP grew 0.8 percent at SAAR of 3.2 percent and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 3.5 percent in IVQ2017, increasing 0.9 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.5 percent, increasing 0.6 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 3.5 percent in IIQ2018, increasing 0.9 percent in the quarter, and increasing 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.9 percent, increasing 0.7 percent in the quarter, and increasing 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 1.1 percent in IVQ2018, increasing 0.3 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, US GDP grew at SAAR of 3.1 percent, increasing 0.8 percent in the quarter and increasing 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.0 percent in IIQ2019, increasing 0.5 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.1 percent, increasing 0.5 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.1 percent in IVQ2019, increasing 0.5 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier.
United Kingdom. In IQ2012, UK GDP increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, GDP fell 0.1 percent relative to IQ2012 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, GDP increased 1.2 percent and increased 2.0 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier. In IVQ2012, GDP fell 0.2 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Fiscal consolidation in an environment of weakening economic growth is much more challenging. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 0.6 percent in IQ2013 relative to IVQ2012. In IIQ2013, GDP increased 0.5 percent and 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.9 percent in IIIQ2013 and 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2013 and 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, GDP increased 0.7 percent and 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2014 and 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2014 and 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, GDP increased 0.6 percent and 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2015 and increased 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2016 and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2016 and grew 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IVQ2016 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2017 and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2017 and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, GDP increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2017 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2018 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, GDP increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2018 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, GDP increased 0.6 percent and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IIQ2019 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, GDP increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2019 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier.
Italy. Italy’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2019 and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2019, Italy’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2019 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2018, the GDP of Italy increased 0.1 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2018 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2018, the GDP of Italy decreased 0.1 percent and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2018 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, the GDP of Italy increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2017 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2017, the GDP of Italy increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, the GDP of Italy increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2016, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2015, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IVQ2014 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.1 percent in IQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IVQ2013 and fell 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2013 and fell 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.8 percent in IQ2013 and declined 2.9 percent relative to IQ2013. GDP had been growing during six consecutive quarters but at very low rates from IQ2010 to IIQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell in seven consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at increasingly higher rates of contraction from 0.5 percent in IIIQ2011 to 0.9 percent in IVQ2011, 1.1 percent in IQ2012, 0.8 percent in IIQ2012 and 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012. The pace of decline accelerated to minus 0.8 percent in IVQ2012 and minus 0.8 percent in IQ2013. GDP contracted cumulatively 5.3 percent in seven consecutive quarterly contractions from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at the annual equivalent rate of minus 3.1 percent. The year-on-year rate has fallen from 2.2 percent in IVQ2010 to minus 3.2 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.9 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.2 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.5 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.9 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.3 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.4 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.2 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.5 percent in IIIQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.4 percent in IVQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.7 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.9 percent in IIQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.7 percent in IIIQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.9 percent in IVQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.4 percent in IQ2018 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.9 percent in IIQ2018 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2018 relative to a year earlier and decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2018 relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IQ2019 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2019 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIIQ2019 relative to a year earlier. Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/), the GDP of Italy in IIIQ2019 of €430,459.2 million (https://www.istat.it/en/archivio/236253) is lower by 5.2 percent relative to €452,802.5 million in IQ2008 (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/). Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/), the GDP of Italy increased from €392,018.4 million in IQ1998 to €452,802.5 million in IQ2008 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.5 percent. The fiscal adjustment of Italy is significantly more difficult with the economy not growing especially on the prospects of increasing government revenue. The strategy is for reforms to improve productivity, facilitating future fiscal consolidation.
France. France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2012 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IIQ2012 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2013 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2013 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2013 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2015, France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2015, the GDP of France increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France decreased 0.3 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, the GDP of France increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2017, the GDP of France increased 0.7 percent and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIIQ2017 and increased 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, the GDP of France increased 0.8 percent and increased 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2018 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2018, the GDP of France increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2018 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2018, the GDP of France increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2019 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2019, the GDP of France increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2019 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2019 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2019, the GDP of France decreased 0.1 percent and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier.

	IQ2012/IVQ2011	IQ2012/IQ2011
USA	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.2	2.7
Japan	QOQ: 1.2 SAAR: 4.9	3.1
China	1.9 AE 7.8	8.1
Euro Area	-0.2	-0.5
Germany	0.2	1.5 CA 1.0
France	0.1	0.6
Italy	-1.1	-2.3
United Kingdom	0.6	1.2
	IIQ2012/IQ2012	IIQ2012/IIQ2011
USA	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.7	2.4
Japan	QOQ: -0.7 SAAR: -2.8	2.9
China	2.1 AE 8.7	7.6
Euro Area	-0.3	-0.8
Germany	0.2	0.4 CA 0.9
France	-0.2	0.4
Italy	-0.8	-3.2
United Kingdom	-0.1	1.1
	IIIQ2012/ IIQ2012	IIIQ2012/ IIIQ2011
USA	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.5	2.5
Japan	QOQ: –0.4 SAAR: –1.5	-0.1
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.5
Euro Area	-0.1	-1.0
Germany	0.3	-0.1
France	0.2	0.4
Italy	-0.5	-3.3
United Kingdom	1.2	2.0
	IVQ2012/IIIQ2012	IVQ2012/IVQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.5	1.5
Japan	QOQ: 0.2 SAAR: 1.0	0.3
China	2.0 AE 8.2	8.1
Euro Area	-0.4	-1.1
Germany	-0.4	-0.1
France	-0.1	0.0
Italy	-0.8	-3.2
United Kingdom	-0.2	1.6
	IQ2013/IVQ2012	IQ2013/IQ2012
United States	QOQ: 0.9 SAAR: 3.6	1.6
Japan	QOQ: 1.2 SAAR: 5.0	0.4
China	1.9 AE 7.8	7.9
Euro Area	-0.4	-1.2
Germany	-0.5	-1.5
France	0.0	-0.1
Italy	-0.8	-2.9
UK	0.6	1.6
	IIQ2013/IQ2013	IIQ2013/IIQ2012
USA	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.5	1.3
Japan	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.2	1.9
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.6
Euro Area	0.5	-0.4
Germany	1.1	0.8
France	0.7	0.8
Italy	0.0	-2.2
UK	0.5	2.3
	IIIQ2013/IIQ2013	III/Q2013/IIIQ2012
USA	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.2	1.9
Japan	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.4	3.0
China	2.1 AE 8.7	7.9
Euro Area	0.3	0.0
Germany	0.5	1.2
France	0.0	0.6
Italy	0.2	-1.5
UK	0.9	2.0
	IVQ2013/IIIQ2013	IVQ2013/IVQ2012
USA	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.2	2.6
Japan	QOQ: 0.0 SAAR: -0.2	2.7
China	1.6 AE 6.6	7.7
Euro Area	0.2	0.7
Germany	0.3	1.2
France	0.5	1.1
Italy	-0.2	-0.9
UK	0.5	2.7
	IQ2014/IVQ2013	IQ2014/IQ2013
USA	QOQ -0.3 SAAR -1.1	1.4
Japan	QOQ: 1.0 SAAR: 4.1	3.0
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.5
Euro Area	0.5	1.6
Germany	1.0	3.2
France	0.1	1.2
Italy	0.1	0.1
UK	0.7	2.7
	IIQ2014/IQ2014	IIQ2014/IIQ2013
USA	QOQ 1.4 SAAR 5.5	2.7
Japan	QOQ: -1.9 SAAR: -7.4	-0.1
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.6
Euro Area	0.2	1.2
Germany	0.0	1.4
France	0.2	0.7
Italy	0.0	0.1
UK	0.7	2.8
	IIIQ2014/IIQ2014	IIIQ2014/IIIQ2013
USA	QOQ: 1.2 SAAR: 5.0	3.1
Japan	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.3	-0.9
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.2
Euro Area	0.5	1.4
Germany	0.5	1.8
France	0.5	1.2
Italy	0.1	0.0
UK	0.6	2.4
	IVQ2014/IIIQ2014	IVQ2014/IVQ2013
USA	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.3	2.9
Japan	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.0	-0.5
China	1.7 AE 7.0	7.3
Euro Area	0.4	1.6
Germany	0.9	2.4
France	0.1	0.8
Italy	-0.2	0.0
UK	0.6	2.5
	IQ2015/IVQ2014	IQ2015/IQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.2	4.0
Japan	QOQ: 1.4 SAAR: 5.6	0.0
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.1
Euro Area	0.7	1.8
Germany	-0.2	1.3
France	0.4	1.2
Italy	0.2	0.1
UK	0.5	2.3
	IIQ2015/IQ2015	IIQ2015/IIQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 3.0	3.4
Japan	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.5	2.2
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.1
Euro Area	0.4	2.1
Germany	0.6	1.8
France	0.0	1.0
Italy	0.4	0.5
UK	0.7	2.4
	IIIQ2015/IIQ2015	IIIQ2015/IIIQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.3	2.4
Japan	QOQ: -0.1 SAAR: -0.3	1.9
China	1.7 AE 7.0	7.0
Euro Area	0.5	2.0
Germany	0.5	1.8
France	0.4	0.9
Italy	0.2	0.6
UK	0.4	2.2
	IVQ2015/IIIQ2015	IVQ2015/IVQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.0 SAAR: 0.1	1.9
Japan	QOQ: -0.4 SAAR: -1.5	0.9
China	1.6 AE 6.6	6.9
Euro Area	0.4	2.0
Germany	0.4	2.1
France	0.2	1.0
Italy	0.5	1.3
UK	0.7	2.4
	IQ2016/IVQ2015	IQ2016/IQ2015
USA	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.0	1.6
Japan	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.1	0.2
China	1.5 AE 6.1	6.9
Euro Area	0.6	1.9
Germany	0.8	2.0
France	0.6	1.2
Italy	0.3	1.4
UK	0.2	2.1
	IIQ2016/IQ2016	IIQ2016/IIQ2015
USA	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 1.9	1.3
Japan	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.6	0.2
China	1.9 AE 7.8	6.8
Euro Area	0.3	1.8
Germany	0.6	3.7
France	-0.3	1.0
Italy	0.2	1.2
UK	0.5	1.9
	IIIQ2016/IIQ2016	IIIQ2016/IIIQ2015
USA	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.2	1.6
Japan	QOQ: 0.2 SAAR: 0.9	0.5
China	1.7 AE 7.0	6.8
Euro Area	0.5	1.8
Germany	0.2	1.9
France	0.2	0.8
Italy	0.6	1.5
UK	0.5	1.9
	IVQ2016/IIIQ2016	IVQ2016/IVQ2015
USA	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.0	2.0
Japan	QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.1	1.2
China	1.6 AE 6.6	6.9
Euro Area	0.8	2.1
Germany	0.4	1.4
France	0.6	1.2
Italy	0.3	1.4
UK	0.6	1.8
	IQ2017/IVQ2016	IQ2017/IQ2016
USA	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.3	2.1
Japan	QOQ: 1.2 SAAR: 4.8	1.8
China	1.6 AE 6.6	7.0
Euro Area	0.6	2.2
Germany	1.2	3.6
France	0.8	1.4
Italy	0.6	1.7
UK	0.6	2.2
	IIQ2017/IQ2017	IIQ2017/IIQ2016
USA	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.2	2.2
Japan	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.4	2.0
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.0
Euro Area	0.7	2.6
Germany	0.6	1.0 CA 2.3
France	0.7	2.4
Italy	0.4	1.9
UK	0.3	1.9
	IIIQ2017/IIQ2017	IIIQ2017/IIIQ2016
USA	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.2	2.4
Japan	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.3	2.4
China	1.7 AE 7.0	6.9
Euro Area	0.8	2.9
Germany	0.9	2.5 CA 3.0
France	0.7	2.8
Italy	0.4	1.7
UK	0.3	1.8
	IVQ2017/IIIQ2017	IVQ2017/IVQ2016
USA	QOQ: 0.9 SAAR: 3.5	2.8
Japan	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.6	2.5
China	1.6 AE 6.6	6.8
Euro Area	0.8	3.0
Germany	0.7	2.8 CA 3.4
France	0.8	3.0
Italy	0.5	1.9
UK	0.4	1.6
	IQ2018/IVQ2017	IQ2018/IQ2017
USA	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.5	2.9
Japan	QOQ: -0.4 SAAR: -1.6	0.9
China	1.5 AE 6.1	6.9
Euro Area	0.3	2.6
Germany	0.1	1.6 CA 2.3
France	0.2	2.4
Italy	0.1	1.4
UK	0.1	1.1
	IIQ2018/IQ2018	IIQ2018/IIQ2017
USA	QOQ: 0.9 SAAR: 3.5	3.2
Japan	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 1.8	1.0
China	1.8 AE 7.4	6.9
Euro Area	0.3	2.2
Germany	0.4	2.5 CA 2.1
France	0.2	1.9
Italy	-0.1	0.9
UK	0.5	1.3
	IIIQ2018/IIQ2018	IIIQ2018/IIIQ2017
USA	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.9	3.1
Japan	QOQ -0.8 SAAR: -3.2	-0.3
China	1.6 AE 6.6	6.7
Euro Area	0.2	1.6
Germany	-0.1	1.1 CA 1.1
France	0.3	1.5
Italy	-0.1	0.4
UK	0.6	1.6
	IVQ2018IIIQ2018	IVQ2018/IVQ2017
USA	QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.1	2.5
Japan	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.1	-0.3
China	1.5 AE 6.1	6.5
Euro Area	0.3	1.2
Germany	0.2	0.9 CA 0.6
France	0.5	1.2
Italy	0.1	-0.1
UK	0.2	1.4
	IQ2019/IV2018	IQ2019/IQ2018
USA	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.1	2.7
Japan	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.6	0.8
China	1.5 AE 6.1	6.4
Euro Area	0.4	1.4
Germany	0.5	0.9 CA 1.0
France	0.3	1.3
Italy	0.1	0.0
UK	0.6	2.0
	IIQ2019/IQ2019	IIQ2019/IIQ2018
USA	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.0	2.3
Japan	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 1.9	0.9
China	1.4 AE 5.7	6.2
Euro Area	0.2	1.2
Germany	-0.2	-0.1 CA 0.3
France	0.4	1.5
Italy	0.1	0.1
UK	-0.1	1.3
	IIIQ2019/IIQ2019	IIIQ2019/IIIQ2018
USA	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR 2.1	2.1
Japan	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.5	1.7
China	1.6 AE 6.6	6.0
Euro Area	0.2	1.2
Germany	0.2	1.1 CA 0.6
France	0.3	1.5
Italy	0.1	0.3
UK	0.5	1.2
	IVQ2019/IIIQ2019	IVQ2019/IVQ2018
USA	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.1	2.3
Japan	QOQ: -1.6 SAAR: -6.3	-0.4
China	1.4 AE 5.7	6.0
Germany	0.0	0.3 CA 0.4
France	-0.1	0.9
UK	0.0	1.1

QOQ: Quarter relative to prior quarter; SAAR: seasonally adjusted annual rate

Source: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.bls.gov/bls/other.htm https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/related-sites.html

Table V-4 provides two types of data: growth of exports and imports in the latest available months and in the past 12 months; and contributions of net trade (exports less imports) to growth of real GDP.

Japan. Japan provides the most worrisome data (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/global-decline-of-values-of-financial.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/07/valuation-of-risk-financial-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/fluctuating-financial-asset-valuations.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/dollar-revaluation-squeezing-corporate.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/patience-on-interest-rate-increases.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/monetary-policy-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/valuation-risks-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/interest-rate-risks-world-inflation.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/global-financial-risk-world-inflation.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations_8763.html http://cmpass ocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/paring-quantitative-easing-policy-and_4699.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/thirty-one-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/12/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_24.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/11/contraction-of-united-states-real_25.html and for GDP http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what_13.html). In Jan 2020, Japan’s exports decreased 2.6 percent in 12 months while imports decreased 3.6 percent. The second part of Table V-4 shows that net trade added 0.8 percent in IQ2012, deducting 2.0 percent in IIQ2012. Net trade deducted 1.9 percent in IIIQ2012. Net traded deducted 0.4 percent in IVQ2012. Net trade added 1.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2013 but deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIQ2013, deducting 1.4 percentage points in IIIQ2013 and 2.2 percentage points in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2014. Net trade added 4.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2014 and deducted 0.3 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 1.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2014. Net trade contributed 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2015 and deducted 0.5-percentage points in IIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2015. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2015 and added 1.4 percentage points in IQ2016. Net trade contributed 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade added 1.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2016 and contributed 1.4 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade contributed 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017 and deducted 0.9 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade contributed 2.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017 and deducted 0.3 percentage-point in IVQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018 and contributed 0.0 percentage points in IIQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018 and deducted 1.7 percentage points in IVQ2018. Net trade contributed 1.8 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2019 with export contraction deducting 1.4 percent and import contraction contributing 3.3 percent. Net trade deducted 1.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2019. Net trade deducted 1.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade contributed 1.9 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2019.

China. In Dec 2019, China exports increased 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier and imports increased 16.3 percent.
Germany. Germany’s exports increased 0.1 percent in the month of Dec 2019 and increased 2.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2019. Germany’s imports decreased 0.7 percent in the month of Dec 2019 and increased 1.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2019. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to growth of GDP in IQ2012, contributed 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2012, contributed 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2012, deducted 0.5 percentage points in IVQ2012, deducted 0.3 percentage points in IQ2013 and deducted 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded deducted 0.0 percentage points from Germany’s GDP growth in IIIQ2013 and added 0.9 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2014 and added 0.7 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points in IVQ2015 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade added 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2017. Net trade added 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018 and deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.5 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2019. Net traded added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2019.
United Kingdom. Net trade contributed 0.7 percentage points in IIQ2013. In IIIQ2013, net trade deducted 1.7 percentage points from UK growth. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to UK value added in IVQ2013. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to UK value added in IQ2014 and 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2014 and added 0.0 percentage points in IVQ2014. Net traded deducted 0.4 percentage points from growth in IQ2015. Net trade added 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.1-percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 1.8 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade added 1.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2016. Net trade added 0.33 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017 and contributed 0.01 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.11 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.14 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade added 0.02 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.26 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.44 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.00 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2018. Net trade deducted 2.69 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2019. Net trade contributed 2.89 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2019. Net trade contributed 1.40 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade contributed 1.56 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2019.
France. France’s exports decreased 0.6 percent in Dec 2019 while imports decreased 3.3 percent. France’s exports decreased 2.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2019 and imports decreased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Net traded added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IIIQ2012 and 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IQ2013 and added 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2013, deducting 1.7 percentage points in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IVQ2013 and deducted 0.1 percentage points in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IIQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to France’s GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.6 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015 and deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.3 percentage points to GDP in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP in IIIQ2016 and added 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP in IQ2017 and added 0.9 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade added 0.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade added 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to GDP in IVQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP in IQ2019. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ219. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2019.
United States. US exports increased 0.8 percent in Dec 2019 and goods exports decreased 1.2 percent in Jan-Dec 2019 relative to a year earlier. Imports increased 2.7 percent in Dec 2019 and goods imports decreased 1.7 percent in Jan-Dec 2019 relative to a year earlier. Net trade added 0.27 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2012 and deducted 0.08 percentage points in IIIQ2012, adding 0.57 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade added 0.40 percentage points to US GDP growth in IQ2013 and deducted 0.33 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded subtracted 0.14 percentage points from US GDP growth in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 1.23 percentage points to US GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 1.11 percentage points from US GDP growth in IQ2014 and deducted 0.46 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade added 0.10 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2014. Net trade deducted 1.05 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 1.67 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.06 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015. Net trade deducted 1.00 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.20 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.50 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.35 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade added 0.05 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade deducted 1.36 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2016. Net trade added 0.13 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.31 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2017. Net trade added 0.35 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.80 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.00 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2018. Net trade added 0.67 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade deducted 2.05 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018, deducting 0.35 percentage points in IVQ2018. Net trade added 0.73 percentage points in IQ2019, deducting 0.68 percentage points in IIQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.14 percentage points in IIIQ2019. Net trade added 1.53 percentage points in IVQ2019.

Industrial production decreased 0.3 percent in Jan 2020 and decreased 0.4 percent in Dec 2019 after increasing 0.9 percent in Nov 2019, with all data seasonally adjusted. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System conducted the annual revision of industrial production released on Mar 27, 2019 (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/revisions/Current/DefaultRev.htm):

“The Federal Reserve has revised its index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization.[1] On net, the revisions to the growth rates for total IP for recent years were small and positive, with the estimates for 2016 and 2017 a bit higher and the estimates for 2015 and 2018 slightly lower.[2] Total IP is still reported to have increased from the end of the recession in mid-2009 through late 2014 before declining in 2015 and rebounding in mid-2016. Subsequently, the index advanced around 7 1/2 percent over 2017 and 2018.

Capacity for total industry expanded modestly in each year from 2015 to 2017 before advancing 1 1/2 percent in 2018; it is expected to advance about 2 percent in 2019. Revisions for recent years were very small and showed slightly less expansion in most years relative to earlier reports.

In the fourth quarter of 2018, capacity utilization for total industry stood at 79.4 percent, about 3/4 percentage point above its previous estimate and about 1/2 percentage point below its long-run (1972–2018) average. The utilization rate in 2017 is also higher than its previous estimate.”

The report of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System states (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm):

“Industrial production declined 0.3 percent in January, as unseasonably warm weather held down the output of utilities and as a major manufacturer significantly slowed production of civilian aircraft. The index for manufacturing edged down 0.1 percent in January; excluding the production of aircraft and parts, factory output advanced 0.3 percent. The index for mining rose 1.2 percent. At 109.2 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 0.8 percent lower in January than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector fell 0.3 percentage point in January to 76.8 percent, a rate that is 3.0 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2019) average.” In the six months ending in Jan 2020, United States national industrial production accumulated change of 0.2 percent at the annual equivalent rate of 0.4 percent, which is higher than growth of minus 0.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2020. Excluding growth of 0.7 percent in Aug 2019, growth in the remaining five months from Aug 2019 to Jan 2020 accumulated to minus 0.5 percent or minus 1.2 percent annual equivalent. Industrial production increased 0.9 percent in one of the past six months, 0.7 percent in one month, minus 0.4 percent in two months and minus 0.3 percent in two months. Industrial production increased at annual equivalent 0.4 percent in the most recent quarter from Nov 2019 to Jan 2020 and changed at 0.0 percent annual equivalent in the prior quarter from Aug to Oct 2019. Business equipment accumulated change of minus 2.4 percent in the six months from Aug 2019 to Jan 2020, at the annual equivalent rate of minus 4.8 percent, which is lower than growth of minus 4.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2020. The Fed analyzes capacity utilization of total industry in its report (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm): ” Capacity utilization for the industrial sector fell 0.3 percentage point in January to 76.8 percent, a rate that is 3.0 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2019) average.” United States industry apparently decelerated to a lower growth rate followed by possible acceleration and weakening growth in past months. There could be renewed growth with oscillations.

Manufacturing decreased 22.3 percent from the peak in Jun 2007 to the trough in Apr 2009 and increasing 18.3 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Dec 2019. Manufacturing grew 17.2 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Jan 2020. Manufacturing in Jan 2020 is lower by 8.9 percent relative to the peak in Jun 2007. The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IVQ2019 would have accumulated to 42.6 percent. GDP in IVQ2019 would be $22,476.6 billion (in constant dollars of 2012) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $3256.1 billion than actual $19,220.5 billion. There are more than three trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 20.0 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 11.6 percent of the effective labor force (Section I and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html). US GDP in IVQ2019 is 14.5 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $15,762.0 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $19,220.5 billion in IVQ2019 or 21.9 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.7 percent. Professor John H. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. Cochrane (2016May02) measures GDP growth in the US at average 3.5 percent per year from 1950 to 2000 and only at 1.76 percent per year from 2000 to 2015 with only at 2.0 percent annual equivalent in the current expansion. Cochrane (2016May02) proposes drastic changes in regulation and legal obstacles to private economic activity. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 3.1 percent per year from Jan 1919 to Jan 2020. Growth at 3.1 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 156.6144 in Jan 2020. The actual index NSA in Jan 2020 is 102.3051 which is 34.7 percent below trend. Manufacturing grew at the average annual rate of 3.3 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2006. Growth at 3.3 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 160.3252 in Jan 2020. The actual index NSA in Jan 2020 is 102.3051, which is 36.2 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 1.9 percent between Dec 1986 and Jan 2020. Using trend growth of 1.9 percent per year, the index would increase to 135.9547 in Jan 2020. The output of manufacturing at 102.3051 in Jan 2020 is 24.8 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Using the NAICS (North American Industry Classification System), manufacturing output fell from the high of 110.5147 in Jun 2007 to the low of 86.3800 in Apr 2009 or 21.8 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased from 86.3800 in Apr 2009 to 103.5684 in Jan 2020 or 19.9 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased at the annual equivalent rate of 3.5 percent from Dec 1986 to Dec 2006. Growth at 3.5 percent would increase the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 161.6599 in Jan 2020. The NAICS index at 103.5684 in Jan 2020 is 35.9 below trend. The NAICS manufacturing output index grew at 1.7 percent annual equivalent from Dec 1999 to Dec 2006. Growth at 1.7 percent would raise the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 130.7781 in Jan 2020. The NAICS index at 103.5684 in Jan 2020 is 20.8 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Table I-13 provides national income by industry without capital consumption adjustment (WCCA). “Private industries” or economic activities have share of 86.8 percent in IIIQ2019. Most of US national income is in the form of services. In Feb 2020, there were 150.997 million nonfarm jobs NSA in the US, according to estimates of the establishment survey of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm Table B-1). Total private jobs of 127.968 million NSA in Feb 2020 accounted for 84.7 percent of total nonfarm jobs of 150.997 million, of which 12.792 million, or 10.0 percent of total private jobs and 8.5 percent of total nonfarm jobs, were in manufacturing. Private service-providing jobs were 107.205 million NSA in Feb 2020, or 71.0 percent of total nonfarm jobs and 83.8 percent of total private-sector jobs. Manufacturing has share of 9.3 percent in US national income in IIIQ2019 and durable goods 5.5 percent, as shown in Table I-13. Most income in the US originates in services. Subsidies and similar measures designed to increase manufacturing jobs will not increase economic growth and employment and may actually reduce growth by diverting resources away from currently employment-creating activities because of the drain of taxation.

Table V-4, Growth of Trade and Contributions of Net Trade to GDP Growth, ∆% and % Points

	Exports M ∆%	Exports 12 M ∆%	Imports M ∆%	Imports 12 M ∆%
USA	0.8 Dec	-1.2 Jan-Dec	2.7 Dec	-1.7 Jan-Dec
Japan		Jan 2020 -2.6 Dec 2019 -6.3 Nov 2019 -7.9 Oct 2019 -9.2 Sep 2019 -5.2 Aug 2019 -8.2 Jul 2019 -1.6 Jun 2019 -6.7 May 2019 -7.8 Apr 2019 -2.4 Mar 2019 -2.4 Feb 2019 -1.2 Jan 2019 -8.4 Dec 2018 -3.8 Nov 2018 0.1 Oct 2018 8.2 Sep 2018 -1.2 Aug 2018 6.6 Jul 2018 3.9 Jun 2018 6.7 May 2018 8.1 Apr 2018 7.8 Mar 2018 2.1 Feb 2018 1.8 Jan 2018 12.2 Dec 2017 9.3 Nov 2017 16.2 Oct 2017 14.0 Sep 2017 14.1 Aug 2017 18.1 Jul 2017 13.4 Jun 2017 9.7 May 2017 14.9 Apr 2017 7.5 Mar 2017 12.0 Feb 2017 11.3 Jan 2017 1.3 Dec 2016 5.4 Nov 2016 -0.4 Oct 2016 -10.3 Sep 2016 -6.9 Aug 2016 9.6 Jul 2016 -14.0 Jun 2016 -7.8 May 2016 -11.3 Apr 2016 -10.1 Mar 2016 -6.8 Feb 2016 -4.0 Jan 2016 -12.9 Dec 2015 -8.0 Nov 2015 -3.3 Oct 2015 -2.1 Sep 2015 0.6 Aug 3.1 Jul 2015 7.6 Jun 2015 9.5 May 2015 2.4 Apr 8.0 Mar 8.5 Feb 2.4 Jan 17.0 Dec 12.9 Nov 4.9 Oct 9.6 Sep 6.9 Aug -1.3 Jul 3.9 Jun -2.0 May 2014 -2.7 Apr 2014 5.1 Mar 2014 1.8 Feb 2014 9.5 Jan 2014 9.5 Dec 2013 15.3 Nov 2013 18.4 Oct 2013 18.6 Sep 2013 11.5 Aug 2013 14.7 Jul 2013 12.2 Jun 2013 7.4 May 2013 10.1 Apr 2013 3.8 Mar 2013 1.1 Feb 2013 -2.9 Jan 2013 6.4 Dec -5.8 Nov -4.1 Oct -6.5 Sep -10.3 Aug -5.8 Jul -8.1		Jan 2020 -3.6 Dec 2019 -4.9 Nov 2019 -15.7 Oct 2019 -14.8 Sep 2019 -1.5 Aug 2019 -12.0 Jul 2019 -1.2 Jun 2019 -5.2 May 2019 -1.5 Apr 2019 6.4 Mar 2019 1.1 Feb 2019 -6.7 Jan 2019 -0.6 Dec 2018 1.9 Nov 2018 12.5 Oct 2018 19.9 Sep 2018 7.0 Aug 2018 15.4 Jul 2018 14.6 Jun 2018 2.5 May 2018 14.0 Apr 2018 5.9 Mar 2018 -0.6 Feb 2018 16.6 Jan 2018 7.9 Dec 2017 14.9 Nov 2017 17.2 Oct 2017 18.9 Sep 2017 12.0 Aug 2017 15.2 Jul 2017 16.3 Jun 2017 15.5 May 2017 17.8 Apr 2017 15.1 Mar 2017 15.8 Feb 2017 1.2 Jan 2017 8.5 Dec 2016 -2.6 Nov 2016 -8.8 Oct 2016 -16.5 Sep 2016 -16.3 Aug 2016 -17.3 Jul 2016 -24.7 Jun 2016 -18.8 May 2016 -13.8 Apr 2016 -23.3 Mar 2016 -14.9 Feb 2016 -14.2 Jan 2016 -18.0 Dec 2015 -18.0 Nov 2015 -10.2 Oct 2015 -13.4 Sep 2015 -11.1 Aug -3.1 Jul 2015 -3.2 Jun 2015 -2.9 May 2015 -8.7 Apr -4.2 Mar -14.5 Feb -3.6 Jan -9.0 Dec 1.9 Nov -1.7 Oct 2.7 Sep 6.2 Aug -1.5 Jul 2.3 Jun 8.4 May 2014 -3.6 Apr 2013 3.4 Mar 2014 18.1 Feb 2014 9.0 Jan 2014 25.0 Dec 2013 24.7 Nov 2013 21.1 Oct 2013 26.1 Sep 2013 16.5 Aug 2013 16.0 Jul 2013 19.6 Jun 2013 11.8 May 2013 10.0 Apr 2013 9.4 Mar 2013 5.5 Feb 2013 7.3 Jan 2013 7.3 Dec 1.9 Nov 0.8 Oct -1.6 Sep 4.1 Aug -5.4 Jul 2.1
China	Jan-Dec 0.5 Jan-Dec 9.9 Jan-Dec 2017 7.9 Jan-Dec 2016 -7.7 Jan-Dec 2015 -2.8	2019 Dec 7.6 Nov -1.1 Oct -0.9 Sep -3.2 Aug -1.0 Jul 3.3 Jun -1.3 May 1.1 Apr -2.7 Mar 14.2 Feb -20.7 Jan 9.3 2018 Dec -4.4 Nov 5.4 Oct 15.6 Sep 14.5 Aug 9.8 Jul 12.2 Jun 11.3 May 12.6 Apr 12.9 Mar -2.7 Feb 44.5 Jan 11.1 2017 Dec 10.9 Nov 12.3 Oct 6.9 Sep 8.1 Aug 5.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 11.3 May 8.7 Apr 8.0 Mar 16.4 Feb -1.3 Jan 7.9 2016 Dec 3.1 Nov 0.1 Oct -7.3 Sep -10.0 Aug -2.8 Jul -4.4 Jun -4.8 May -4.1 Apr -1.8 Mar 11.5 Feb -25.4 Jan -11.2 2015 -1.4 Dec -6.8 Nov -6.9 Oct -3.7 Sep -5.5 Aug -8.3 Jul 2.8 Jun -2.5 May -6.4 Apr -15.0 Mar 48.3 Feb -3.3 Jan 2014 9.7 Dec 4.7 Nov 11.6 Oct 15.3 Sep 9.4 Aug 14.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 7.0 May 0.9 Apr -6.6 Mar -18.1 Feb 10.6 Jan 2013 4.3 Dec 12.7 Nov 5.6 Oct -0.3 Sep 7.2 Aug 5.1 Jul -3.1 Jun 1.0 May 14.7 Apr 10.0 Mar 21.8 Feb 25.0 Jan	Jan-Dec -2.8 Jan-Dec 15.8 Jan-Dec 2017 15.9 Jan-Dec 2016 -5.5 Jan-Dec 2015 -14.1	2019 Dec 16.3 Nov 0.3 Oct -6.4 Sep -8.5 Aug -5.6 Jul -5.3 Jun -7.3 May -8.5 Apr 4.0 Mar -7.6 Feb -5.2 Jan -1.5 2018 Dec -7.6 Nov 3.0 Oct 21.4 Sep 14.3 Aug 20.0 Jul 27.3 Jun 14.1 May 26.0 Apr 21.5 Mar 14.4 Feb 6.3 Jan 36.9 2017 Dec 4.5 Nov 17.7 Oct 17.2 Sep 18.7 Aug 13.3 Jul 11.0 Jun 17.2 May 14.8 Apr 11.9 Mar 20.3 Feb 38.1 Jan 16.7 2016 Dec -7.7 Nov 6.7 Oct -1.4 Sep -1.9 Aug 1.5 Jul -12.5 Jun -2.8 May -0.4 Apr -10.6 Mar -7.6 Feb -13.8 Jan -18.8 2015 -7.6 Dec -8.7 Nov -18.8 Oct -20.4 Sep -13.8 Aug -8.1 Jul -6.1 Jun -17.6 May -12.7 Mar -20.5 Feb -19.9 Jan 2014 -2.4 Dec -6.7 Nov 4.6 Oct 7.0 Sep -2.4 Aug -1.6 Jul 5.5 Jun -1.6 May -0.8 Apr -11.3 Mar 10.1 Feb 10.0 Jan 2013 8.3 Dec 5.3 Nov 7.6 Oct 7.4 Sep 7.0 Aug 10.9 Jul -0.7 Jun -0.3 May 16.8 Apr 14.1 Mar -15.2 Feb 28.8 Jan
Euro Area	4.8 12-Dec 19	2.7 Jan-Dec 19	1.1 12-Dec 19	1.5 Jan-Dec 19
Germany	0.1 Dec CSA	2.3 Dec	-0.7 Dec CSA	1.2 Dec
France Dec	-0.6	-2.2	-3.3	-2.4
Italy Dec	-0.9	4.2	0.8	-2.2
UK	10.2 Dec	5.0	0.1 Dec	4.7
Net Trade % Points GDP Growth	Points
USA	IVQ2019 1.53 IIIQ2019 -0.14 IIQ2019 -0.68 IQ2019 0.73 IVQ 2018 -0.35 IIIQ 2018 -2.05 IIQ2018 0.67 IQ2018 0.00 IVQ2017 -0.80 IIIQ2017 0.35 IIQ2017 -0.31 IQ2017 0.13 IVQ2016 -1.36 IIIQ2016 0.05 IIQ2016 0.35 IQ2016 -0.50 IVQ2015 -0.20 IIIQ2015 -1.00 IIQ2015 0.06 IQ2015 -1.67 IVQ2014 -1.05 IIIQ2014 0.10 IIQ2014 -0.46 IQ2014 -1.11 IVQ2013 1.23 IIIQ2013 -0.14 IIQ2013 -0.33 IQ2013 0.40 IVQ2012 +0.57 IIIQ2012 -0.08 IIQ2012 0.27 IQ2012 0.00
Japan	0.8 IQ2012 -2.0 IIQ2012 -1.9 IIIQ2012 -0.4 IVQ2012 1.5 IQ2013 -0.2 IIQ2013 -1.4 IIIQ2013 -2.2 IVQ2013 -0.7 IQ2014 4.0 IIQ2014 -0.3 IIIQ2014 1.5 IVQ2014 0.2 IQ2015 -0.5 IIQ2015 -0.6 IIIQ2015 0.1 IVQ2015 1.4 IQ2016 0.5 IIQ2016 1.2 IIIQ2016 1.4 IVQ2016 0.4 IQ2017 -0.9 IIQ2017 2.1 IIIQ2017 -0.3 IVQ2017 0.4 IQ2018 0.0 IIQ2018 -0.7 IIIQ2018 -1.7 IVQ2018 1.8 IQ2019 -1.1 IIQ2019 -1.0 IIIQ2019 1.9 IVQ2019
Germany	IQ2012 0.8 IIQ2012 0.3 IIIQ2012 0.4 IVQ2012 -0.5 IQ2013 -0.3 IIQ2013 -0.3 IIIQ2013 0.0 IVQ2013 0.9 IQ2014 -0.1 IIQ2014 -0.3 IIIQ2014 0.7 IVQ2014 0.1 IQ2015 -0.4 IIQ2015 0.6 IIIQ2015 -0.4 IVQ2015 -0.6 IQ2016 -0.4 IIQ2016 0.7 IIIQ2016 -0.2 IVQ2016 -0.7 IQ2017 0.7 IIQ2017 -0.2 IIIQ2017 0.5 IVQ2017 0.1 IQ2018 0.1 IIQ2018 -0.2 IIIQ2018 -1.0 IVQ2018 -0.2 IQ2019 0.5 IIQ2019 -0.5 IIIQ2019 0.6 IVQ2019 -0.6
France	0.1 IIIQ2012 0.1 IVQ2012 -0.1 IQ2013 0.3 IIQ2013 -1.7 IIIQ2013 0.1 IVQ2013 -0.1 IQ2014 -0.2 IIQ2014 -0.2 IIIQ2014 0.2 IVQ2014 -0.2 IQ2015 0.4 IIQ2015 -0.6 IIIQ2015 -0.7 IVQ2015 -0.1 IQ2016 0.3 IIQ2016 -0.6 IIIQ2016 0.1 IVQ2016 -0.6 IQ2017 0.9 IIQ2017 -0.3 IIIQ2017 0.6 IVQ2017 0.0 IQ2018 0.0 IIQ2018 0.3 IIIQ2018 0.2 IVQ2018 -0.3 IQ2019 0.0 IIQ2019 -0.2 IIIQ2019 0.1 IVQ2019
UK	0.7 IIQ2013 -1.7 IIIQ2013 0.1 IVQ2013 0.8 IQ2014 0.3 IIQ2014 -0.7 IIIQ2014 0.0 IVQ2014 -0.4 IQ2015 1.1 IIQ2015 -0.4 IIIQ2015 -0.2 IVQ2015 -0.1 IQ2016 0.1 IIQ2016 -1.8 IIIQ2016 1.7 IVQ2016 0.33 IQ2017 0.01 IIQ2017
	0.11
	IIIQ2017 -0.14 IVQ2017 0.02 IQ2018 -0.26 IIQ2018 0.44 IIIQ2018 -1.00 IVQ2018 -2.69 IQ2019 2.89 IIQ2019 1.40 IIIQ2019 1.56 IVQ2019

Sources: Country Statistical Agencies

https://www.bls.gov/bls/other.htm https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/related-sites.html

The geographical breakdown of exports and imports of Japan with selected regions and countries is in Table V-5 for Jan 2020. The share of Asia in Japan’s trade is close to one-half for 51.9 percent of exports and 50.2 percent of imports. Within Asia, exports to China are 16.5 percent of total exports and imports from China 25.7 percent of total imports. While exports of Japan to China decreased 6.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2020, imports from China decreased 5.7 percent. The largest export market for Japan in Jan 2020 is the US with share of 19.4 percent of total exports, which is close to that of China, and share of imports from the US of 10.1 percent in total imports. Japan’s exports to the US decreased 7.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2020 and imports from the US decreased 11.5 percent. Western Europe has share of 12.8 percent in Japan’s exports and of 12.4 percent in imports. Rates of growth of exports of Japan in Jan 2020 are minus 7.7 percent for exports to the US, minus 0.4 percent for exports to Brazil and minus 5.4 percent for exports to Germany. Comparisons relative to 2011 may have some bias because of the effects of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Deceleration of growth in China and the US and threat of recession in Europe can reduce world trade and economic activity. Growth rates of imports in the 12 months ending in Jan 2020 are mixed. Imports from Asia decreased 2.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2020 while imports from China decreased 5.7 percent. Data are in millions of yen, which may have effects of recent depreciation of the yen relative to the United States dollar (USD) and revaluation of the dollar relative to the euro with multiple oscillations.

Table V-5, Japan, Value and 12-Month Percentage Changes of Exports and Imports by Regions and Countries, ∆% and Millions of Yen

Jan 2020	Exports Millions of Yen	12 months ∆%	Imports Millions of Yen	12 months ∆%
Total	5,430,510	-2.6	6,743,141	-3.6
Asia	2,817,751 % Total 51.9	-3.2	3,385,611 % Total 50.2	-2.9
China	896,572 % Total 16.5	-6.4	1,735,106 % Total 25.7	-5.7
USA	1,051,844 % Total 19.4	-7.7	682,618 % Total 10.1	-11.5
Canada	81,110	27.7	89,658	-10.6
Brazil	30,355	-0.4	84,106	52.9
Mexico	87,747	-8.0	55,265	-3.9
Western Europe	697,523 % Total 12.8	-0.7	834,481 % Total 12.4	-2.2
Germany	162,579	-5.4	209,016	-9.1
France	52,579	-5.3	92,040	2.4
UK	145,494	20.3	69,958	-7.0
Middle East	175,334	8.4	810,553	8.3
Australia	122,374	2.9	387,816	-17.1

Source: Japan, Ministry of Finance http://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/info/index_e.htm

World trade projections of the IMF are in Table V-6. There is decreasing growth of the volume of world trade of goods and services from 3.6 percent in 2018 to 1.1 percent in 2019, stabilizing to 3.2 percent in 2020. Growth stabilizes at 3.3 percent on average from 2018 to 2024. World trade would be slower for advanced economies while emerging and developing economies (EMDE) experience faster growth. World economic slowdown would be more challenging with lower growth of world trade.

Table V-6, IMF, Projections of World Trade, USD Billions, USD/Barrel and Annual ∆%

	2018	2019	2020	Average ∆% 2018-2024
World Trade Volume (Goods and Services)	3.6	1.1	3.2	3.3
Exports Goods & Services	3.4	1.3	3.1	3.5
Imports Goods & Services	3.8	1.0	3.3	3.4
Exports Goods & Services
G7	2.6	0.7	2.2	2.5
EMDE	3.9	1.9	4.1	4.1
Imports Goods & Services
G7	3.2	1.5	2.6	2.7
EMDE	5.1	0.7	4.3	4.3
Terms of Trade Goods & Services
G7	-0.7	0.6	0.3	0.0
EMDE	1.5	-1.3	-1.1	-0.2
World Crude Oil Price $/Barrel	68.3	61.8	57.9	58.3

Crude Oil: Simple Average of three spot prices: Dated Brent, West Texas Intermediate and the Dubai Fateh

Source: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook databank

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2019/02/weodata/index.aspx

The JP Morgan Global Composite Output Index of the JP Morgan Manufacturing and Services PMI^™, produced by JP Morgan and HIS Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM, with high association with world GDP, decreased to 46.1 in Feb from 52.2 in Jan, indicating contraction from prior expansion (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/1c1b56b7ea334d8da4d72ce539226270). This index has remained above the contraction territory of 50.0 during 88 consecutive months. The employment index decreased from 51.2 in Jan to 49.8 in Feb with input prices increasing at slower rate, new orders decreasing from prior expansion and output decreasing from prior expansion (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/1c1b56b7ea334d8da4d72ce539226270). Olya Borichevska, from Global Economic Research at JP Morgan, finds contraction (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/1c1b56b7ea334d8da4d72ce539226270). The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI^™, produced by JP Morgan and IHS Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM, decreased to 47.2 in Feb from 50.4 in Jan (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/b01f7d05a1124fdb8fc25f6e94d3d50d). New export orders decreased. Olya Borichevska, from Global Economic Research at JP Morgan, finds contraction (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/b01f7d05a1124fdb8fc25f6e94d3d50d).The Markit Brazil Composite Output Index decreased from 52.2 in Jan to 50.9 in Feb, indicating expansion in activity of Brazil’s private sector (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/4c5893286c96475da34945dec040557e). The Markit Brazil Services Business Activity index, compiled by Markit, decreased from 52.7 in Jan to 50.4 in Feb indicating slowly expanding services activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/4c5893286c96475da34945dec040557e). Pollyanna De Lima, Principal Economist at Markit, finds slower expanding activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/4c5893286c96475da34945dec040557e). The HIS Markit Brazil Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^TM (PMI^™) increased from 51.0 in Jan to 52.3 in Feb, indicating manufacturing above neutral 50.0 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/013315087e8d411eb17cc77f88f33e0d). Pollyanna De Lima, Principal Economist at Markit, finds stronger manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/013315087e8d411eb17cc77f88f33e0d).

VA United States. The HIS Markit Flash US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) seasonally adjusted decreased to 50.8 in Feb from 51.9 in Jan (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/2ea84928c5d74262bbe387ec2b19d337). New export orders increased. The HIS Markit Flash US Services PMI™ Business Activity Index decreased from 53.4 in Jan to 49.4 in Feb (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/2ea84928c5d74262bbe387ec2b19d337). The IHS Markit Flash US Composite PMI™ Output Index decreased from 53.3 in Jan to 49.6 in Feb (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/2ea84928c5d74262bbe387ec2b19d337). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds that the surveys are consistent with quarterly GDP growth at 0.6 percent (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/6ebd936f39444bf799f2c696d6bd1755). The HIS Markit US Composite PMI™ Output Index of Manufacturing and Services decreased to 49.6 in Feb from 53.3 in Jan (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/73772ab58968427d8e6b9c6f90a2d32c). The HIS Markit US Services PMI™ Business Activity Index decreased from 53.4 in Jan to 49.4 in Feb (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/73772ab58968427d8e6b9c6f90a2d32c). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds the indexes suggesting growth close to annualized 0.7 percent (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/73772ab58968427d8e6b9c6f90a2d32c). The HIS Markit US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) decreased to 50.7 in Feb from 51.9 in Jan (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/0bb08ad3827249cb9e3c6ea27e40a617). New foreign orders decreased. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at HIS Markit, finds contraction (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/0bb08ad3827249cb9e3c6ea27e40a617). The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Report on Business^® decreased 0.8-percentage points from 50.9 in Jan to 50.1 in Feb, which indicates slower growth (https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm). The index of new export orders decreased 2.1 percentage points from 53.3 in Jan to 51.2 in Feb. The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report on Business^® PMI increased 1.8 percentage points from 55.5 in Jan to 57.3 in Feb, indicating growth of business activity/production during 121 consecutive months, while the index of new orders increased 6.9 percentage points from 56.2 in Jan to 63.1 in Feb (https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm). Table USA provides the country economic indicators for the US.

Table USA, US Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index	Jan 12 months NSA ∆%: 2.5; Ex food and energy ∆%: 2.3 Jan month SA ∆%: 0.1; Ex food and energy ∆%: 0.2 Blog 1/19/20 WIW 3/1/20
Producer Price Index	Finished Goods Jan 12-month NSA ∆%: 2.5; ex food and energy ∆% 1.2 Jan month SA ∆% -0.1; ex food and energy ∆%: 0.0 Final Demand Jan 12-month NSA ∆%: 2.1; ex food and energy ∆% 1.7 Jan month SA ∆% 0.5; ex food and energy ∆%: 0.5 Blog 1/19/20 WIW 3/1/20
PCE Inflation	Jan 12-month NSA ∆%: headline 1.7 ex food and energy ∆% 1.6 Blog 3/8/20
Employment Situation	Household Survey: Feb Unemployment Rate SA 3.5% Blog calculation People in Job Stress Feb: 20.0 million NSA, 11.6% of Labor Force Establishment Survey: Feb Nonfarm Jobs 273,000; Private 228,000 jobs created Jan 12-month Average Hourly Earnings Inflation Adjusted ∆%: 0.5 Blog 3/8/20
Nonfarm Hiring	Nonfarm Hiring fell from 64.9 million in 2006 to 59.0 million in 2014 or by 5.9 million and to 63.7 million in 2016 or by 1.2 million. Nonfarm hiring increased to 68.9 million in 2018 or 4.0 million relative to 2006 while population grew 28.976 million. Private-Sector Hiring Dec 2019 4.159 million higher by 13.9 percent than 3.652 million in Dec 2006 while population grew 30.115 million or 13.1 percent Blog 2/16/20
GDP Growth	BEA Revised National Income Accounts IQ2012/IQ2011 ∆%: 2.7 IIQ2012/IIQ2011 2.4 IIIQ2012/IIIQ2011 2.5 IVQ2012/IVQ2011 1.5 IQ2013/IQ2012 1.6 IIQ2013/IIQ2012 1.3 IIIQ2013/IIIQ2012 1.9 IVQ2013/IVQ2012 2.6 IQ2014/IQ2013 1.4 IIQ2014/IIQ2013 2.7 IIIQ2014/IIIQ2013 3.1 IVQ2014/IVQ2013 2.9 IQ2015/IQ2014 4.0 IIQ2015/IIQ2014 3.4 IIIQ2015/IIIQ2014 2.4 IVQ2015/IVQ2014 1.9 IQ2016/IQ2015 1.6 IIQ2016/IIQ2015 1.3 IIIQ2016/IIIQ2015 1.6 IVQ2016/IVQ2015 2.0 IQ2017/IQ2016 2.1 IIQ2017/IIQ2016 2.2 IIIQ2017/IIIQ2016 2.4 IVQ2017/IVQ2016 2.8 IQ2018/IQ2017 2.9 IIQ2018/IIQ2017 3.2 IIIQ2018/IIIQ2017: 3.1 IVQ2018/IVQ2017 2.5 IQ2019/IQ2018 2.7 IIQ2019/IIQ2018 2.3 IIIQ2019/IIIQ2018 2.1 IVQ2019/IVQ2018 2.3 IQ2012 SAAR 3.2 IIQ2012 SAAR 1.7 IIIQ2012 SAAR 0.5 IVQ2012 SAAR 0.5 IQ2013 SAAR 3.6 IIQ2013 SAAR 0.5 IIIQ2013 SAAR 3.2 IVQ2013 SAAR 3.2 IQ2014 SAAR -1.1 IIQ2014 SAAR 5.5 IIIQ2014 SAAR 5.0 IVQ2014 SAAR 2.3 IQ2015 SAAR 3.2 IIQ2015 SAAR: 3.0 IIIQ2015 SAAR: 1.3 IVQ2015 SAAR: 0.1 IQ2016 SAAR: 2.0 IIQ2016 SAAR: 1.9 IIIQ2016 SAAR: 2.2 IVQ2016 SAAR 2.0 IQ2017 SAAR 2.3 IIQ2017 SAAR 2.2 IIIQ2017 SAAR 3.2 IVQ2017 SAAR 3.5 IQ2018 SAAR 2.5 IIQ2018 SAAR 3.5 IIIQ2018 SAAR 2.9 IVQ2018 SAAR 1.1 IQ2019 SAAR 3.1 IIQ2019 SAAR 2.0 IIIQ2019 SAAR 2.1 IVQ2019 SAAR 2.1 Blog 3/1/20
Real Private Fixed Investment	SAAR IVQ2019 ∆% -0.5 IVQ2007 to IVQ2019: ∆% 26.5 Blog 3/1/20
Corporate Profits	IIIQ2019 SAAR: Corporate Profits -0.2; Undistributed Profits 3.6 Blog 1/5/20
Personal Income and Consumption	Jan month ∆% SA Real Disposable Personal Income (RDPI) SA ∆% 0.5 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (RPCE): 0.1 12-month Jan NSA ∆%: RDPI: 2.2; RPCE ∆%: 2.7 Blog 3/8/20
Quarterly Services Report	IVQ19/IVQ18 NSA ∆%: Information 5.7 Financial & Insurance 3.9 Earlier Data: Blog 3/22/15
Employment Cost Index	Compensation Private IIIQ2019 SA ∆%: 0.8 Sep 12 months ∆%: 2.7 Earlier Data: Blog 2/1/15
Industrial Production	Jan month SA ∆%: -0.3 12 months SA ∆%: -0.8 Manufacturing Jan SA -0.1 ∆% Jan 12 months SA ∆% minus 0.8, NSA minus 0.8 Capacity Utilization: 76.8 Blog 2/23/20
Productivity and Costs	Nonfarm Business Productivity IVQ2019∆% SAAE 1.4; IVQ2019/IVQ2018 ∆% 1.8; Unit Labor Costs SAAE IVQ2019 ∆% 1.4; IVQ2019/IVQ2018 ∆%: 2.4 Blog 2/16/20
New York Fed Manufacturing Index	General Business Conditions from Jan 4.8 to Feb 12.9 New Orders: From Jan 6.6 to Feb 22.1 Blog 2/23/20
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index	General Index from Jan 17.0 to Feb 36.7 New Orders from Jan 18.2 to Feb 33.6 Blog 2/23/20
Manufacturing Shipments and Orders	Jan Orders SA ∆% -0.5 Ex Transport -0.1 Jan 20/Jan 19 NSA New Orders ∆% 0.0 Ex transport 1.4 Earlier data: Blog 4/5/15
Durable Goods	Jan New Orders SA ∆%: minus 0.2; ex transport ∆%: 0.9 Jan 20/Jan 19 New Orders NSA ∆%: minus 2.3 ex transport ∆% 0.0 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15
Sales of New Motor Vehicles	IIQ2018 4,500,220; IIQ2017 4,419,349. Feb 20 Total Light Vehicles NSA 1356.3 thousand increasing 8.4% from 1251.5 thousand in Feb 2019. Feb 20 SAAR 16.8 million, Jan 20 SAAR 16.9 million, Feb 19 SAAR 16.5 million Blog 9/9/18 12/9/18 3/8/20
Sales of Merchant Wholesalers	Jan-Dec 2019/Jan-Dec 2018 NSA ∆%: Total 0.6; Durable Goods: -0.1; Nondurable Goods: 1.1 EARLIER DATA: Blog 4/12/15
Sales and Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers	Dec 19 12-M NSA ∆%: Sales Total Business 3.2; Manufacturers 0.6 Retailers 5.9; Merchant Wholesalers 3.2 Blog 2/23/20
Sales for Retail and Food Services	Jan 2020/Jan 2019 ∆%: Retail and Food Services 4.6; Retail ∆% 4.1 Blog 2/23/20
Value of Construction Put in Place	SAAR month SA Jan ∆%: 1.8 Jan 20/Jan 19 NSA: 6.9 Earlier Data: Blog 4/5/15
Case-Shiller Home Prices	National Dec ∆% SA 0.5 National Dec 12M ∆% 3.8 Blog 3/1/20
FHFA House Price Index Purchases Only	Dec SA ∆% 0.6; 12-month NSA ∆%: 5.2 Blog 3/1/20
New House Sales	Jan month SAAR ∆%: 7.9 Jan 2020/Jan 2019 NSA ∆%: 16.3 Blog 3/1/20
Housing Starts and Permits	Jan Starts month SA ∆% -3.6; Permits ∆%: 9.2 Jan 2020/Jan 2019 NSA ∆% Starts 21.4; Permits ∆% 17.9 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Rate of Homeownership	IVQ2019 65.1 IIIQ2019: 64.8 Blog 2/16/20
Trade Balance	Balance Dec SA -$48,880 million versus Nov -$43,691 million Exports Dec SA ∆%: 0.8 Imports Dec SA ∆%: 2.7 Goods Exports Jan-Dec 2019/Jan-Dec 2018 NSA ∆%: minus 1.2 Goods Imports Jan-Dec 2019/Jan-Dec 2018 NSA ∆%: minus 1.7 Blog 2/9/20
Export and Import Prices	Jan 12-month NSA ∆%: Imports 0.3; Exports 0.5 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
International Terms of Trade	IVQ2019 110.033 IVQ1947 150.474 2019 109.924 1929 142.590 Blog 3/8/20
Consumer Credit	Dec ∆% annual rate: Total 6.3; Revolving 14.0 Nonrevolving 3.7 Earlier Data: Blog 5/10/15
Net Foreign Purchases of Long-term Treasury Securities	Dec Net Foreign Purchases of Long-term US Securities: $59.9 billion Major Holders of Treasury Securities: China $1069.9 billion; Japan $1154.9 billion; Total Foreign US Treasury Holdings Dec $6696.3 billion Blog 2/23/20
Treasury Budget	Fiscal Year 2020/2019 ∆% Jan: Receipts 6.1; Outlays 10.3 Individual Income Taxes 5.5 Deficit Fiscal Year 2011 $1,300 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2012 $1,087 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2013 $680 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2014 $485 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2015 $439 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2016 $585 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2017 $665 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2018 $779 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2019 $984 billion Blog 2/23/20
CBO Budget and Economic Outlook	2012 Deficit $1087 B 6.8% GDP Debt $11,281 B 70.4% GDP 2013 Deficit $680 B, 4.1% GDP Debt $11,983 B 72.6% GDP 2014 Deficit $485 B 2.8% GDP Debt $12,780 B 74.1% GDP 2015 Deficit $438 B 2.4% GDP Debt $13,117 B 72.9% GDP 2016 Deficit $585 3.2% GDP Debt $14,168.4 B 76.7% GDP 2017 Deficit $665 3.5% GDP Debt $14,665 76.5% GDP 2028 Deficit $1,526 B, 5.1 % GDP Debt $28,671 B 96.2% GDP 2048: Long-term Debt/GDP 152.0% Blog 8/26/12 11/18/12 2/10/13 9/22/13 2/16/14 8/24/14 9/14/14 3/1/15 6/21/15 1/3/16 4/10/16 7/24/16 1/8/17 4/2/17 10/14/18
Commercial Banks Assets and Liabilities	Sep 2019 SAAR ∆%: Securities 21.0 Loans 2.2 Cash Assets -36.6 Deposits 7.9 Blog 10/20/19
Flow of Funds Net Worth of Families and Nonprofits	IIIQ2019 ∆ since 2007 Assets +$45,117.0 BN Nonfinancial +$8,699.7 BN Real estate +$7,114.8 BN Financial +$36,417.3 BN Net Worth +$43,235.4 BN Net Worth IVQ2018/IIIQ2018 ∆% -3.5 Corporate Equity ∆% -16.1 Blog 1/12/20
Current Account Balance of Payments and Net International Investment Position	Current Account IIIQ2019 NSA minus $143,051 MM % GDP 2.3 SA NIIP IIIQ2019: Minus $10,949 B Blog 9/23/2018 2/10/2018 3/31/2019 7/7/2019 9/29/2019 11/3/2019 1/19/20
Collapse of United States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation	Blog 1/26/20
Squeeze of Economic Activity by Carry Trades	Blog 2/23/19
IMF View	World Real Economic Growth 2020 ∆% 3.4 Blog 11/3/19
Income, Poverty and Health Insurance in the United States	43.123 Million Below Poverty in 2015, 13.5% of Population Median Family Income CPI-2015 Adjusted $56,516 in 2015 back to 1999 Levels Uncovered by Health Insurance 28.966 Million in 2015 Blog 9/25/16
Monetary Policy and Cyclical Valuation of Risk Financial Assets	Blog 1/7/2018
Rules versus Discretionary Authorities in Monetary Policy	Blog 1/1/2017

Links to blog comments in Table USA : 3/1/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/sharp-worldwide-contraction-of.html

2/23/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/declining-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

2/16/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/recovery-without-hiring-in-lost.html

2/9/2020 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

2/2/2020 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/decreasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

1/26/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/01/declining-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

1/19/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/01/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

1/12/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/01/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

1/5/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/01/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

12/29/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/diverging-economic-conditions-and.html

12/22/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/oscillating-valuations-of-risk.html

12/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/increase-in-valuations-of-risk_14.html

12/8/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/increase-in-valuations-of-risk.html

12/1/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

11/24/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/oscillating-risk-financial-assets-world.html

11/17/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial_16.html

11/10/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

11/3/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/decrease-of-fomc-policy-rate-monetary.html

10/27/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial_26.html

10/20/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/dollar-depreciation-fluctuating.html

10/13/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

10/6/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/volatility-of-valuations-of-risk.html

9/29/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/dollar-appreciation-decreasing.html

9/22/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/uncertain-fomc-outlook-of-monetary.html

9/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/competitive-exchange-rate-and-interest.html

9/8/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/increase-in-valuations-of-risk.html

9/1/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/revaluation-of-us-dollar-falling-yields.html

8/25/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/contraction-of-valuations-of-risk.html

8/18/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/global-decline-of-yields-of-government.html

8/11/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/competitive-exchange-rate-policies.html

8/4/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/dollar-appreciation-contraction-of.html

7/28/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/dollar-appreciation-in-anticipations-of.html

7/21/2019 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/global-manufacturing-stress-world.html

7/14/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/fomc-uncertain-outlook-frank-h-knights.html

7/7/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/twenty-million-unemployed-or.html

6/30/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/06/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

6/23/2019 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/06/fomc-outlook-uncertainty-central-bank.html

6/16/2019 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/06/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

5/5/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

4/21/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/04/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

3/31/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/03/inverted-yield-curve-of-treasury_30.html

12/9/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/12/fluctuation-of-valuations-of-risk.html

11/4/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/10/contraction-of-valuations-of-risk.html

1/7/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/01/twenty-three-million-unemployed-or.html

12/31/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/dollar-devaluation-cyclically.html

12/24/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_23.html

10/29/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/dollar-revaluation-and-increase-of.html

4/2/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/04/mediocre-cyclical-economic-growth-with.html

1/15/17 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/unconventional-monetary-policy-and.html

1/1/17 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/rules-versus-discretionary-authorities.html

12/25/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

10/16/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/10/imf-view-of-world-economy-and-finance.html

9/25/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/the-economic-outlook-is-inherently.html

7/24/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/unresolved-us-balance-of-payments.html

4/10/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/04/proceeding-cautiously-in-reducing.html

1/17/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/unconventional-monetary-policy-and.html

1/3/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/weakening-equities-and-dollar.html

10/11/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/10/interest-rate-policy-uncertainty-imf.html

6/21/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/fluctuating-financial-asset-valuations.html

5/10/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/quite-high-equity-valuations-and.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html

9/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitics-monetary-policy-and.html

8/24/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/monetary-policy-world-inflation-waves.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

9/22/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

2/10/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/united-states-unsustainable-fiscal.html

Motor vehicle sales and production in the US have been in long-term structural change. Table VA-1A provides the data on new motor vehicle sales and domestic car production in the US from 1990 to 2010. New motor vehicle sales grew from 14,137 thousand in 1990 to the peak of 17,806 thousand in 2000 or 29.5 percent. In that same period, domestic car production fell from 6,231 thousand in 1990 to 5,542 thousand in 2000 or -11.1 percent. New motor vehicle sales fell from 17,445 thousand in 2005 to 11,772 in 2010 or 32.5 percent while domestic car production fell from 4,321 thousand in 2005 to 2,840 thousand in 2010 or 34.3 percent. In IIQ2018, light vehicle sales accumulated to 4,500,220, which is higher by 1.8 percent relative to 4,419,349 a year earlier in IIQ2017 (http://www.motorintelligence.com/m_frameset.html). Total not seasonally adjusted light vehicle sales reached 1356.3 thousands in Feb 2020, increasing 8.4 percent from 1251.5 thousands in Feb 2019 (https://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gap_hist.xlsx). The seasonally adjusted annual rate of light vehicle sales in the US reached 16.8 million in Feb 2020, lower than 16.9 million in Jan 2020 and higher than 16.5 million in Feb 2019 (https://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gap_hist.xlsx).

Table VA-1A, US, New Motor Vehicle Sales and Car Production, Thousand Units 7

	New Motor Vehicle Sales	New Car Sales and Leases	New Truck Sales and Leases	Domestic Car Production
1990	14,137	9,300	4,837	6,231
1991	12,725	8,589	4,136	5,454
1992	13,093	8,215	4,878	5,979
1993	14,172	8,518	5,654	5,979
1994	15,397	8,990	6,407	6,614
1995	15,106	8,536	6,470	6,340
1996	15,449	8,527	6,922	6,081
1997	15,490	8,273	7,218	5,934
1998	15,958	8,142	7,816	5,554
1999	17,401	8,697	8,704	5,638
2000	17,806	8,852	8,954	5,542
2001	17,468	8,422	9,046	4,878
2002	17,144	8,109	9,036	5,019
2003	16,968	7,611	9,357	4,510
2004	17,298	7,545	9,753	4,230
2005	17,445	7,720	9,725	4,321
2006	17,049	7,821	9,228	4,367
2007	16,460	7,618	8,683	3,924
2008	13,494	6,814	6.680	3,777
2009	10,601	5,456	5,154	2,247
2010	11,772	5,729	6,044	2,840

Source: US Census Bureau

https://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gap_hist.xlsx

Chart I-5 of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve provides output of motor vehicles and parts in the United States from 1972 to 2020. Output virtually stagnated since the late 1990s with recent increase.

Chart 1-5, US, Motor Vehicles and Parts Output, 1972-2020

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm

VB Japan. The GDP of Japan grew at 1.0 percent per year on average from 1991 to 2002, with the GDP implicit deflator falling at 0.8 percent per year on average. The average growth rate of Japan’s GDP was 4 percent per year on average from the middle of the 1970s to 1992 (Ito 2004). Low growth in Japan in the 1990s is commonly labeled as “the lost decade” (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 81-115). Table VB-GDP provides annual growth rates of Japan’s GDP from 1995 to 2019. Growth weakened from 2.7 per cent in 1995 and 3.1 percent in 1996 to contractions of 1.1 percent in 1998 and 0.3 percent in 1999. Growth rates were below 2 percent with exception of 2.8 percent in 2000 and 2.2 percent in 2004. Japan’s GDP contracted sharply by 1.1 percent in 2008 and 5.4 percent in 2009. As in most advanced economies, growth was robust at 4.2 percent in 2010 but mediocre at minus 0.1 percent in 2011 because of the tsunami and 1.5 percent in 2012. Japan’s GDP grew 2.0 percent in 2013 and nearly stagnated in 2014 at 0.4 percent. The GDP of Japan increased 1.2 percent in 2015 and 0.5 percent in 2016. Japan’s GDP increased at 2.2 percent in 2017. The GDP of Japan increased 0.3 percent in 2018. The GDP of Japan increased 0.7 percent in 2019. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). Japan’s real GDP in calendar year 2019 is 6.3 percent higher than in calendar year 2007 for growth at the average yearly rate of 0.5 percent. Japan’s real GDP grew 13.6 percent from the trough of 2009 to 2019 at the average yearly rate of 1.3 percent (https://www.cao.go.jp/index-e.html).

Table VB-GDP, Japan, Yearly Percentage Change of GDP ∆%

Calendar Year	∆%
1995	2.7
1996	3.1
1997	1.1
1998	-1.1
1999	-0.3
2000	2.8
2001	0.4
2002	0.1
2003	1.5
2004	2.2
2005	1.7
2006	1.4
2007	1.7
2008	-1.1
2009	-5.4
2010	4.2
2011	-0.1
2012	1.5
2013	2.0
2014	0.4
2015	1.2
2016	0.5
2017	2.2
2018	0.3
2019	0.7

Source: Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office

https://www.cao.go.jp/index-e.html

http://wwwa.cao.go.jp/notice/20191101notice.html

Table VB-BOJF provides the forecasts of economic activity and inflation in Japan by the majority of members of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, which is part of their Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf) with changes on Jul 21, 2015 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k150121a.pdf). For fiscal 2015, the forecast is of growth of GDP between 1.5 to 2.1 percent, with the all items CPI less fresh food 0.2 to 1.2 to 3.3 percent (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf). The critical difference is forecast of the CPI excluding fresh food of 0.2 to 1.2 percent in 2015 and 1.2 to 2.2 percent in 2016 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf). Consumer price inflation in Japan excluding fresh food was minus 0.4 percent in Mar 2014 and 2.2 percent in 12 months (http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1581.htm), significantly because of the increase of the tax on value added of consumption in Apr 2014. The new monetary policy of the Bank of Japan aims to increase inflation to 2 percent. These forecasts are biannual in Apr and Oct. The Cabinet Office, Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan released on Jan 22, 2013, a “Joint Statement of the Government and the Bank of Japan on Overcoming Deflation and Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130122c.pdf) with the important change of increasing the inflation target of monetary policy from 1 percent to 2 percent:

“The Bank of Japan conducts monetary policy based on the principle that the policy shall be aimed at achieving price stability, thereby contributing to the sound development of the national economy, and is responsible for maintaining financial system stability. The Bank aims to achieve price stability on a sustainable basis, given that there are various factors that affect prices in the short run.

The Bank recognizes that the inflation rate consistent with price stability on a sustainable basis will rise as efforts by a wide range of entities toward strengthening competitiveness and growth potential of Japan's economy make progress. Based on this recognition, the Bank sets the price stability target at 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index.

Under the price stability target specified above, the Bank will pursue monetary easing and aim to achieve this target at the earliest possible time. Taking into consideration that it will take considerable time before the effects of monetary policy permeate the economy, the Bank will ascertain whether there is any significant risk to the sustainability of economic growth, including from the accumulation of financial imbalances.”

The Bank of Japan also provided explicit analysis of its view on price stability in a “Background note regarding the Bank’s thinking on price stability” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/data/rel130123a1.pdf http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130123a.htm/). The Bank of Japan also amended “Principal terms and conditions for the Asset Purchase Program” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130122a.pdf): “Asset purchases and loan provision shall be conducted up to the maximum outstanding amounts by the end of 2013. From January 2014, the Bank shall purchase financial assets and provide loans every month, the amount of which shall be determined pursuant to the relevant rules of the Bank.”

Financial markets in Japan and worldwide were shocked by new bold measures of “quantitative and qualitative monetary easing” by the Bank of Japan (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The objective of policy is to “achieve the price stability target of 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) at the earliest possible time, with a time horizon of about two years” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The main elements of the new policy are as follows:

Monetary Base Control. Most central banks in the world pursue interest rates instead of monetary aggregates, injecting bank reserves to lower interest rates to desired levels. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has shifted back to monetary aggregates, conducting money market operations with the objective of increasing base money, or monetary liabilities of the government, at the annual rate of 60 to 70 trillion yen. The BOJ estimates base money outstanding at “138 trillion yen at end-2012) and plans to increase it to “200 trillion yen at end-2012 and 270 trillion yen at end 2014” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
Maturity Extension of Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds. Purchases of bonds will be extended even up to bonds with maturity of 40 years with the guideline of extending the average maturity of BOJ bond purchases from three to seven years. The BOJ estimates the current average maturity of Japanese government bonds (JGB) at around seven years. The BOJ plans to purchase about 7.5 trillion yen per month (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130404d.pdf). Takashi Nakamichi, Tatsuo Ito and Phred Dvorak, wiring on “Bank of Japan mounts bid for revival,” on Apr 4, 2013, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323646604578401633067110420.html), find that the limit of maturities of three years on purchases of JGBs was designed to avoid views that the BOJ would finance uncontrolled government deficits.
Seigniorage. The BOJ is pursuing coordination with the government that will take measures to establish “sustainable fiscal structure with a view to ensuring the credibility of fiscal management” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
Diversification of Asset Purchases. The BOJ will engage in transactions of exchange traded funds (ETF) and real estate investment trusts (REITS) and not solely on purchases of JGBs. Purchases of ETFs will be at an annual rate of increase of one trillion yen and purchases of REITS at 30 billion yen.
Bank Lending Facility and Growth Supporting Funding Facility. At the meeting on Feb 18, the Bank of Japan doubled the scale of these lending facilities to prevent their expiration in the near future (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140218a.pdf).

Table VB-BOJF provides the forecasts of economic activity and inflation in Japan by the majority of members of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, which is part of their Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1701b.pdf) with changes on Feb 1, 2017 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1604b.pdf). On Jun 19, 2015, the Bank of Japan announced a “New Framework for Monetary Policy Meetings,” which provides for quarterly release of the forecasts of the economy and prices beginning in Jan 2016 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/rel150619a.pdf). For fiscal 2015, the forecast is of growth of GDP between 0.7 to 0.7 percent, with the all items CPI less fresh food of 0.0 percent (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1604b.pdf). The critical difference is forecast of the CPI excluding fresh food of 0.0 to 0.2 percent in 2016 and 1.8 to 3.0 percent in 2017 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1604b.pdf). Consumer price inflation in Japan excluding fresh food was 0.1 percent in Mar 2016 and minus 0.3 percent in 12 months (http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1581.htm). The CPI increased significantly because of the increase of the tax on value added of consumption in Apr 2014. The new monetary policy of the Bank of Japan aims to increase inflation to 2 percent. These forecasts are biannual in Apr and Oct. The Cabinet Office, Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan released on Jan 22, 2013, a “Joint Statement of the Government and the Bank of Japan on Overcoming Deflation and Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130122c.pdf) with the important change of increasing the inflation target of monetary policy from 1 percent to 2 percent:

Monetary Base Control. Most central banks in the world pursue interest rates instead of monetary aggregates, injecting bank reserves to lower interest rates to desired levels. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has shifted back to monetary aggregates, conducting money market operations with the objective of increasing base money, or monetary liabilities of the government, at the annual rate of 60 to 70 trillion yen. The BOJ estimates base money outstanding at “138 trillion yen at end-2012) and plans to increase it to “200 trillion yen at end-2012 and 270 trillion yen at end 2014” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
Maturity Extension of Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds. Purchases of bonds will be extended even up to bonds with maturity of 40 years with the guideline of extending the average maturity of BOJ bond purchases from three to seven years. The BOJ estimates the current average maturity of Japanese government bonds (JGB) at around seven years. The BOJ plans to purchase about 7.5 trillion yen per month (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130404d.pdf). Takashi Nakamichi, Tatsuo Ito and Phred Dvorak, wiring on “Bank of Japan mounts bid for revival,” on Apr 4, 2013, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323646604578401633067110420.html), find that the limit of maturities of three years on purchases of JGBs was designed to avoid views that the BOJ would finance uncontrolled government deficits.
Seigniorage. The BOJ is pursuing coordination with the government that will take measures to establish “sustainable fiscal structure with a view to ensuring the credibility of fiscal management” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
Diversification of Asset Purchases. The BOJ will engage in transactions of exchange traded funds (ETF) and real estate investment trusts (REITS) and not solely on purchases of JGBs. Purchases of ETFs will be at an annual rate of increase of one trillion yen and purchases of REITS at 30 billion yen.
Bank Lending Facility and Growth Supporting Funding Facility. At the meeting on Feb 18, the Bank of Japan doubled the scale of these lending facilities to prevent their expiration in the near future (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140218a.pdf).
Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Negative Nominal Interest Rate. On January 29, 2016, the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan introduced a new policy to attain the “price stability target of 2 percent at the earliest possible time” (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2016/k160129a.pdf). The new framework consists of three dimensions: quantity, quality and interest rate. The interest rate dimension consists of rates paid to current accounts that financial institutions hold at the Bank of Japan of three tiers zero, positive and minus 0.1 percent. The quantitative dimension consists of increasing the monetary base at the annual rate of 80 trillion yen. The qualitative dimension consists of purchases by the Bank of Japan of Japanese government bonds (JGBs), exchange traded funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITS).
Quantitative and Qualitative Easing with Yield Curve Control. The Bank of Japan introduced a new approach, QQE with Yield Curve Control (“Quantitative and Qualitative Easing with Yield Curve Control”) at its policy meeting on Sep 21, 2016 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2016/k160921a.pdf). The policy consists of two measures. First “yield curve control” consists of controlling the long-term and short-term interest rates. The bank will fix the interest rates of policy balances held by financial institutions at the BOJ at minus 0.1 percent and will purchase Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) in the amount required to maintain the yield of the 10-year JGB at around zero percent. Second, “the inflation-overshooting commitment” consists of increasing base money to maintain the CPI price stability target above 2 percent.

Table VB-BOJF, Bank of Japan, Forecasts of the Majority of Members of the Policy Board, % Year on Year

Fiscal Year Date of Forecast	Real GDP	CPI All Items Less Fresh Food	Excluding Effects of Consumption Tax Hikes
2013
Apr 2014	+2.2 to +2.3 [+2.2]	+0.8
Jan 2014	+2.5 to +2.9 [+2.7]	+0.7 to +0.9 [+0.7]
Oct 2013	+2.6 to +3.0 [+2.7]	+0.6 to +1.0 [+0.7]
Jul 2013	+2.5 to +3.0 [+2.8]	+0.5 to +0.8 [+0.6]
2014
Apr 2015	-1.0 to -0.8 [-0.9]	+2.8	+0.8
Jan 2015	-0.6 to -0.4 [-0.5]	+2.9 to +3.2 [+2.9]	+0.9 to +1.2 [+0.9]
Oct 2014	+0.2 to +0.7 [+0.5]	+3.1 to +3.4 [+3.2]	+1.1 to +1.4 [+1.2]
Jul 2014	+0.6 to +1.3 [+1.0]	+3.2 to +3.5 [+3.3]	+1.2 to +1.5 [+1.3]
Apr 2014	+0.8 to +1.3 [+1.1]	+3.0 to +3.5 [+3.3]	+1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3]
Jan 2014	+0.9 to 1.5 [+1.4]	+2.9 to +3.6 [+3.3]	+0.9 to +1.6 [+1.3]
Oct 2013	+0.9 to +1.5 [+1.5]	+2.8 to +3.6 [+3.3]	+0.8 to +1.6 [+1.3]
Jul 2013	+0.8 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+2.7 to +3.6 [+3.3]	+0.7 to +1.6 [+1.3]
2015
Feb 2016	+0.7 to +0.7 [+0.7]	0.0
Jan 2016	+1.0 to +1.3 [+1.1]	0.0 to 0.2 [+0.1]
Oct 2015	+0.8 to +1.4 [+1.2]	0.0 to +0.4 [+0.1
Jul 2015	+1.5 to +1.9 [+1.7]	+0.3 to +1.0 [+0.7]
Apr 2015	+1.5 to +2.1 [+2.0]	+0.2 to 1.2 [+0.8]	+0.2 to 1.2 [+0.8]
Jan 2015	+1.8 to +2.3 [+2.1]	+0.4 to +1.3 [+1.0]	+0.4 to +1.3 [+1.0]
Oct 2014	+1.2 to +1.7 [+1.5]	+1.8 to 2.6 [+2.4]	+1.1 to +1.9 [+1.7]
Jul 2014	+1.2 to +1.6 [+1.5]	+1.9 to +2.8 [+2.6]	+1.2 to +2.1 [+1.9]
Apr 2014	+1.2 to +1.5 [+1.5]	+1.9 to +2.8 [+2.6]	+1.2 to +2.1 [+1.9]
Jan 2014	+1.2 to +1.8 [+1.5]	+1.7 to +2.9 [+2.6]	+1.0 to +2.2 [+1.9]
Oct 2013	+1.3 to +1.8 [+1.5]	+1.6 to +2.9 [+2.6]	+0.9 to +2.2 [+1.9]
Jul 2013	+1.3 to +1.9 [+1.5]	+1.6 to +2.9 [+2.6]	+0.9 to +2.2 [+1.9]
2016
Apr 2017	+1.4 to +1.4 [+1.4]	-0.3
Feb 2017	+1.2 to +1.5 [+1.4]	-0.2 to -0.1 [-0.2]
Jul 2016	+0.8 to +1.0 [+1.0]	0.0 to +0.3 [0.5]	0.0 to +0.3 [0.5]
Apr 2016	+0.8 to +1.4 [+1.2]	0.0 to +0.8 [+0.5]	0.0 to +0.8 [+0.5]
Jan 2016	+1.0 to +1.7 [+1.5]	0.2 to +1.2 [+0.8]
Oct 2015	+1.2 to +1.6 [+1.4]	+0.8 to +1.5 [+1.4]
Jul 2015	+1.5 to 1.7 [+1.5]	+1.2 to +2.1 [+1.9]
Apr 2015	+1.4 to +1.8 [+1.5]	+1.2 to +2.2 [+2.0]	+1.2 to +2.2 [+2.0]
Jan 2015	+1.5 to +1.7 [+1.6]	+1.5 to +2.3 [+2.2]	+1.5 to +2.3 [+2.2]
Oct 2014	+1.0 to +1.4 [+1.2]	+1.9 to 3.0 [+2.8]	+1.2 to 2.3 [+2.1]
Jul 2014	+1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+2.0 to +3.0 [+2.8]	+1.3 to +2.3 [+2.1]
Apr 2014	+1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+2.0 to +3.0 [+2.8]	+1.3 to +2.3 [+2.1]
2017
Apr 2017	+1.4 to +1.6 [+1.6]	+0.6 to +1.6 [+1.4]
Feb 2017	+1.3 to +1.6 [+1.5]	+0.8 to +1.6 [+1.5]
Jul 2016	1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+0.8 to +1.8 [+1.7]	+0.8 to +1.8 [+1.7]
Apr 2016	0.0 to + +0.3 [+0.1]	1.8 to +3.0 [+2.7]	0.8 to +2.0 [+1.7
Jan 2016	+0.1 to + 0.5 [+0.3]	+2.0 to +3.1 [+2.8]	+ 1.0 to +2.1 [+1.8]
Oct 2015	+0.1 to +0.5 [+0.3]	+2.5 to +3.4 [+3.1]	+1.2 to 2.1 [+1.8]
Jul 2015	+0.1 to +0.5 [+0.2]	+2.7 to +3.4 [+3.1]	+1.4 to +2.1 [+1.8]
Apr 2015	+0.1 to +0.5 [+0.2]	+2.7 to +3.4 [+3.2]	+1.4 to +2.1 [+1.9]
2018
Apr 2017	+1.1 to +1.3 [+1.3]	+0.8 to +1.9 [+1.7]
Feb 2017	+1.0 to +1.2 [+1.1]	+0.9 to +1.9 [+1.7]
Jul 2016	+0.8 to +1.0 [+0.9]	+1.0 to +2.0 [+1.9]	+1.0 to +2.0 [+1.9]
Apr 2016	+0.6 to +1.2 [+1.0]	+1.0 to +2.1 [+1.9]	+1.0 to +2.1 [+1.9]
2019
Apr 2017	+0.6 to +0.7 [+0.7]	+1.4 to +2.5 [+2.4]	+0.9 to +2.0 [+1.9]

Figures in brackets are the median of forecasts of Policy Board members

Source: Policy Board, Bank of Japan

Figures in brackets are the median of forecasts of Policy Board members

Source: Policy Board, Bank of Japan

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k150121a.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140715a.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1510b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1601b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1604b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1607b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1701b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1704b.pdf

The Jibun Bank Flash Japan Composite Output Index decreased from 50.1 in Jan to 47.0 in Feb (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/c31266ae77eb47a7aa7be24850ccb530). The Jibun Bank Flash Japan Services Business Activity Index decreased from 51.0 in Jan to 46.7 in Feb (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/c31266ae77eb47a7aa7be24850ccb530). The Jibun Bank Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI Index™ with the Flash Japan

Manufacturing PMI™ decreased from 48.8 in Jan to 47.6 in Feb

(https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/c31266ae77eb47a7aa7be24850ccb530). Joe Hayes, Economist at HIS

Markit, finds internal economy deteriorating conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/c31266ae77eb47a7aa7be24850ccb530).The Jibun Bank Composite Output PMI Index decreased from 50.1 in Jan to 57.0 in Feb, indicating contracting business activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/aaea3ee3d867448183a3ab7ffe2ebe15). The Jibun Bank Business Activity Index of Services decreased to 46.8 in Feb from 51.0 in Jan (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/aaea3ee3d867448183a3ab7ffe2ebe15). Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, finds contracting conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/aaea3ee3d867448183a3ab7ffe2ebe15). The Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI™), seasonally adjusted, decreased from 48.8 in Jan to 47.8 in Feb (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/cdec72569928463ab9bd538e6f3bf3e3). New orders decreased while new foreign orders decreased. Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, finds weak conditions in manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/cdec72569928463ab9bd538e6f3bf3e3). Table JPY provides the country data table for Japan.

Table JPY, Japan, Economic Indicators

Historical GDP and CPI	1981-2010 Real GDP Growth and CPI Inflation 1981-2010 Blog 8/9/11 Table 26
Corporate Goods Prices	Jan ∆% 0.2 12 months ∆% 1.7 Blog 2/16/20
Consumer Price Index	Jan NSA ∆% 0.1; Jan 12 months NSA ∆% 0.7 Blog 2/23/20
Real GDP Growth	IVQ2019 ∆%: -1.6 on IIIQ2019; IVQ2019 SAAR minus 6.3; ∆% from quarter a year earlier: minus 0.4 Blog 6/16/13 8/18/13 9/15/13 11/17/13 12/15/13 2/23/14 3/16/14 5/18/14 6/15/14 8/17/14 9/14/14 11/23/14 12/14/14 2/22/15 3/15/15 5/24/15 6/14/15 8/23/15 9/13/15 11/22/15 12/13/15 2/21/16 3/13/16 5/22/16 6/12/16 8/21/16 9/11/16 11/20/16 12/11/16 2/19/17 3/12/17 5/21/17 6/11/17 8/20/17 9/10/17 11/26/17 12/17/17 2/18/18 3/11/18 5/20/18 6/17/18 8/19/18 9/16/18 11/18/18 2/17/19 3/17/19 5/26/19 6/16/19 8/18/19 9/15/19 11/24/19 12/29/19 02/23/20
Employment Report	Jan Unemployed 1.59 million Change in unemployed since last year: -70 thousand Unemployment rate: 2.4% Blog 3/8/20
All Industry Indices	Dec month SA ∆% 0.0 12-month NSA ∆% -1.4 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15
Industrial Production	Jan SA month ∆%: 0.8 Jan 12-month NSA ∆% -2.5 Earlier Data: Blog 3/29/15
Machine Orders	Total Dec ∆% -9.7 Private ∆%: -9.7 Excluding Volatile Orders minus 12.5 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Tertiary Index	Dec month SA ∆% -0.2 Dec 12 months NSA ∆% -0.8 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15
Wholesale and Retail Sales	Jan 12 months: Total ∆%: -4.5 Wholesale ∆%: -6.5 Retail ∆%: -0.4 Earlier Data: Blog 3/29/15
Family Income and Expenditure Survey	Dec 12-month ∆% total nominal consumption -3.9, real -4.8 Earlier Data: Blog 3/29/15
Trade Balance	Exports Jan 2020 months ∆%: -2.6 Imports Dec 12 months ∆% -3.6 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15

Links to blog comments in Table JPY: 2/23/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/declining-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

2/16/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/recovery-without-hiring-in-lost.html

2/9/2020 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

1/26/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/01/declining-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

1/19/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/01/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

12/29/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/diverging-economic-conditions-and.html

12/22/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/oscillating-valuations-of-risk.html

12/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/increase-in-valuations-of-risk_14.html

12/1/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

11/24/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/oscillating-risk-financial-assets-world.html

11/17/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial_16.html

11/3/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/decrease-of-fomc-policy-rate-monetary.html

10/27/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial_26.html

10/20/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/dollar-depreciation-fluctuating.html

10/6/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/volatility-of-valuations-of-risk.html

9/22/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/uncertain-fomc-outlook-of-monetary.html

9/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/competitive-exchange-rate-and-interest.html

9/8/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/increase-in-valuations-of-risk.html

8/25/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/contraction-of-valuations-of-risk.html

8/18/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/global-decline-of-yields-of-government.html

8/4/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/dollar-appreciation-contraction-of.html

7/21/2019 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/global-manufacturing-stress-world.html

7/14/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/fomc-uncertain-outlook-frank-h-knights.html

6/30/2019 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/06/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

6/16/2019 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/06/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

5/26/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/05/contraction-of-risk-financial-assets.html

3/17/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/03/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

2/17/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/02/dollar-revaluation-with-increases-in.html

11/18/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/11/weakening-gdp-growth-in-major-economies.html

9/16/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/09/recovery-without-hiring-in-lost.html

8/19/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/08/world-inflation-waves-lost-economic.html

6/17/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/fomc-increases-interest-rates-with.html

5/20/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/dollar-revaluation-united-states_24.html

3/11/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/twenty-three-million-unemployed-or.html

2/18/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/united-states-inflation-trend-or.html

12/17/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/fomc-increases-interest-rates-with.html

9/10/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

8/20/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

5/21/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/dollar-devaluation-world-inflation.html

3/12/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/increasing-interest-rates-twenty-four.html

12/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/rising-values-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/20/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/interest-rate-increase-could-well.html

9/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/interest-rate-uncertainty-and-valuation.html

8/21/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/interest-rate-policy-uncertainty-and.html

6/12/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/considerable-uncertainty-about-economic.html

5/22/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/most-fomc-participants-judged-that-if.html

3/13/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/monetary-policy-and-fluctuations-of_13.html

12/13/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/liftoff-of-interest-rates-with-volatile_17.html

11/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-liftoff-followed-by.html

9/13/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what_13.html

08/23/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/global-decline-of-values-of-financial.html

6/14/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/volatility-of-financial-asset.html

5/24/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/interest-rate-policy-and-dollar.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

3/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

2/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html

12/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/global-financial-and-economic-risk.html

11/23/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.htm

9/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitics-monetary-policy-and.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

6/15/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financialgeopolitical-risks-recovery.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html

2/23/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html

12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

Table VB-1 provides the employment report of Japan in Jan 2020. The rate of unemployment not seasonally adjusted reached 2.3 percent, decreasing 0.1 percentage points from a year earlier. Population decreased 0.1 percent from a year earlier. The labor force increased 0.8 percent from a year earlier and the labor participation rate stood at 61.8, increasing 0.6 percentage points from a year earlier. The employment rate moved to 60.3 percent, increasing 0.6 percentage points relative to a year earlier.

Table VB-1, Japan, Employment Report Jan 2020

Jan 2020 Unemployed	1.59 million
Change since last year	-70 thousand; ∆% -4.2
Unemployment rate	SA 2.4%, 0.2 from earlier month; NSA 2.3%, -0.1 from earlier year
Population ≥ 15 years	110.86 million
Change since last year	∆% -0.1
Labor Force	68.46 million
Change since last year	∆% 0.8
Employed	66.87 million
Change since last year	∆% 0.9
Labor force participation rate	61.8
Change since last year	0.6
Employment rate	60.3%
Change since last year	0.6

Source: Japan, Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications

http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/results/month/index.html

Table VB-2 provides the rate of unemployment of Japan seasonally adjusted that decreased to 3.4 percent in Dec 2014 from 4.4 percent in Jul 2012. The rate of unemployment SA decreased 0.1 percentage points from 2.5 percent in Jan 2019 to 2.4 percent in Jan 2020.

Table VB-2, Japan, Unemployment Rate, SA

	Unemployment Rate SA
Jan 2020	2.4
Dec 2019	2.2
Nov	2.2
Oct	2.4
Sep	2.4
Aug	2.3
Jul	2.3
Jun	2.3
May	2.4
Apr	2.4
Mar	2.5
Feb	2.4
Jan	2.5
Dec 2018	2.4
Nov	2.5
Oct	2.4
Sep	2.3
Aug	2.5
Jul	2.5
Jun	2.5
May	2.3
Apr	2.5
Mar	2.5
Feb	2.5
Jan	2.4
Dec 2017	2.7
Nov	2.7
Oct	2.7
Sep	2.8
Aug	2.7
Jul	2.8
Jun	2.8
May	3.1
Apr	2.8
Mar	2.8
Feb	2.9
Jan	3.0
Dec 2016	3.1
Nov	3.1
Oct	3.0
Sep	3.0
Aug	3.1
Jul	3.0
Jun	3.1
May	3.1
Apr	3.2
Mar	3.2
Feb	3.3
Jan	3.2
Dec 2015	3.3
Nov	3.3
Oct	3.2
Sep	3.4
Aug	3.4
Jul	3.4
Jun	3.4
May	3.3
Apr	3.4
Mar	3.4
Feb	3.5
Jan	3.5
Dec 2014	3.4
Nov	3.5
Oct	3.6
Sep	3.5
Aug	3.5
Jul	3.7
Jun	3.7
May	3.6
Apr	3.6
Mar	3.6
Feb	3.6
Jan	3.7
Dec 2013	3.7
Nov	3.9
Oct	4.0
Sep	4.0
Aug	4.1
Jul	3.8
Jun	3.9
May	4.1
Apr	4.1
Mar	4.1
Feb	4.3
Jan	4.2
Dec 2012	4.3
Nov	4.1
Oct	4.1
Sep	4.3
Aug	4.2
Jul	4.4
Jun	4.3
May	4.4

Source: Source: Japan, Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications

http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/results/month/index.htm

Chart VB-1 of Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications provides the unemployment rate of Japan from 2014 to 2019. There is clear trend of decline with multiple oscillations and increase in Jun-Jul 2014. The rate increased in Sep 2014 and fell in Oct 2014, stabilizing in Nov 2014 and declining in Dec 2014. The rate decreased in Feb-Apr 2015, stabilizing in May 2015. The rate increased in Jun 2015 and fell in Jul 2015, increasing in Aug 2015 and stabilizing in Sep 2015. The rate fell in Oct 2015, increasing in Nov 2015, remaining unchanged in Dec 2015 and decreasing in Jan 2016. The rate increased in Feb 2016 and decreased in Mar 2016, stabilizing in Apr-May 2016. The rate decreased in Jun-Jul 2016, increasing in Aug 2016. The rate decreased in Sep 2016, stabilizing in Oct 2016. The rate increased in Nov 2016 and stabilized in Dec 2016, decreasing in Jan-Feb 2017. The rate stabilized in Apr 2017, increasing in May 2017 and decreasing in Jun 2017. The rate stabilized in Jul-Oct 2017, decreasing in Nov 2017. The rate increased in Dec 2017, decreasing in Jan 2018. The rate increased in Feb 2018 and stabilized in Mar-Apr 2018, decreasing in May 2018. The rate increased in Jun-Jul 2018, decreasing in Aug-Sep 2018. The rate increased in Oct-Nov 2018, decreasing in Dec 2018. The rate increased in Jan 2019, decreasing in Feb 2019. The rate increased in Mar 2019, decreasing in Apr 2019. The rate stabilized in May 2019, decreasing in Jun 2019. The rate decreased in Jul 2019, stabilizing in Aug 2019. The rate increased in Sep 2019, stabilizing in Oct 2019. The rate decreased in Nov 2019 and stabilized in Dec 2019. The rate increased in Jan 2020.

Chart VB-1, Japan, Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: Japan, Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications

http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/results/month/index.htm

During the “lost decade” of the 1990s from 1991 to 2002 (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 82-3), Japan’s GDP grew at the average yearly rate of 1.0 percent, the CPI at 0.1 percent and the implicit deflator at minus 0.8 percent. Japan’s growth rate from the mid-1970s to 1992 was 4 percent (Ito 2004). Table VB-3 provides Japan’s rates of unemployment, participation in labor force and employment for selected years from 1953 to 1985 and yearly from 1990 to 2016. The rate of unemployment jumped from 2.1 percent in 1991 to 5.4 percent in 2002, which was a year of global economic weakness. The participation rate dropped from 64.0 percent in 1992 to 61.2 percent in 2002 and the employment rate fell from 62.6 percent in 1992 to 57.9 percent in 2002. The rate of unemployment rose from 3.9 percent in 2007 to 5.1 percent in 2010, falling to 4.6 percent in 2011, 4.3 percent in 2012 and 3.6 percent in 2014. The rate of unemployment fell to 3.4 percent in 2015 and 3.1 percent in 2016. The unemployment rate fell to 2.8 percent in 2017, decreasing to 2.4 percent in 2018. The participation rate fell from 60.4 percent in 2007 to 59.6 percent in 2010, falling to 59.3 percent in 2011 and 59.1 in 2012 and increasing to 59.4 percent in 2014. The participation rate increased to 59.6 in 2015 and 60.0 in 2016, increasing to 60.5 in 2017. The participation rate increased to 61.5 in 2018. The employment rate fell from 58.1 in percent in 2007 to 56.6 percent in 2010 and 56.5 percent in 2011 and 2012, increasing to 57.3 percent in 2014. The employment rate increased to 57.6 in 2015 and 58.1 in 2016. The employment rate increased to 58.8 in 2017. The global recession adversely affected labor markets in advanced economies. The employment rate increased to 60.0 in 2018, increasing to 60.6 in 2019.

Table VB-3, Japan, Rates of Unemployment, Participation in Labor Force and Employment, %

	Participation Rate	Employment Rate	Unemployment Rate
1953	70.0	68.6	1.9
1960	69.2	68.0	1.7
1965	65.7	64.9	1.2
1970	65.4	64.6	1.1
1975	63.0	61.9	1.9
1980	63.3	62.0	2.0
1985	63.0	61.4	2.6
1990	63.3	61.9	2.1
1991	63.8	62.4	2.1
1992	64.0	62.6	2.2
1993	63.8	62.2	2.5
1994	63.6	61.8	2.9
1995	63.4	61.4	3.2
1996	63.5	61.4	3.4
1997	63.7	61.5	3.4
1998	63.3	60.7	4.1
1999	62.9	59.9	4.7
2000	62.4	59.5	4.7
2001	62.0	58.9	5.0
2002	61.2	57.9	5.4
2003	60.8	57.6	5.3
2004	60.4	57.6	4.7
2005	60.4	57.7	4.4
2006	60.4	57.9	4.1
2007	60.4	58.1	3.9
2008	60.2	57.8	4.0
2009	59.9	56.9	5.1
2010	59.6	56.6	5.1
2011	59.3	56.5	4.6
2012	59.1	56.5	4.3
2013	59.3	56.9	4.0
2014	59.4	57.3	3.6
2015	59.6	57.6	3.4
2016	60.0	58.1	3.1
2017	60.5	58.8	2.8
2018	61.5	60.0	2.4
2019	62.1	60.6	2.4

Source: Japan, Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications

http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/results/month/index.htm

VC China. China estimates an index of nonmanufacturing purchasing managers based on a sample of 1200 nonmanufacturing enterprises across the country (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Table CIPMNM provides this index and components. The total index increased from 55.7 in Jan 2011 to 58.0 in Mar 2012, decreasing to 53.9 in Aug 2013. The index decreased from 56.0 in Nov 2013 to 54.6 in Dec 2013, easing to 53.4 in Jan 2014. The index moved to 29.6 Feb 2020. The index of new orders increased from 52.2 in Jan 2012 to 54.3 in Dec 2012 but fell to 50.1 in May 2013, barely above the neutral frontier of 50.0. The index of new orders stabilized at 51.0 in Nov-Dec 2013, easing to 50.9 in Jan 2014. The index of new orders moved to 26.5 in Feb 2020.

Table CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted

	Total Index	New Orders	Interm. Input Prices	Subs Prices	Exp
Feb 2020	29.6	26.5	49.3	43.9	40.0
Jan	54.1	50.6	53.3	50.5	59.6
Dec 2019	53.5	50.4	52.4	50.3	59.1
Nov	54.4	51.3	53.2	51.3	61.0
Oct	52.8	49.4	51.3	48.9	60.7
Sep	53.7	50.5	52.8	50.0	59.7
Aug	53.8	50.1	50.8	49.1	60.4
Jul	53.7	50.4	52.9	50.6	59.8
Jun	54.2	51.5	51.5	49.7	60.6
May	54.3	50.3	52.2	49.9	60.2
Apr	54.3	50.8	53.0	50.5	60.3
Mar	54.8	52.5	52.5	51.0	61.1
Feb	54.3	50.7	52.7	50.1	61.5
Jan	54.7	51.0	52.0	49.8	59.6
Dec 2018	53.8	50.4	50.1	47.6	60.8
Nov	53.4	50.1	50.8	49.4	60.9
Oct	53.9	50.1	54.9	51.2	60.6
Sep	54.9	51.0	55.6	51.5	60.1
Aug	54.2	50.6	54.3	50.9	61.4
Jul	54.0	51.0	53.9	52.0	60.2
Jun	55.0	50.6	53.5	51.1	60.8
May	54.9	51.0	54.2	50.6	61.0
Apr	54.8	51.1	52.7	50.6	61.5
Mar	54.6	50.1	49.9	49.3	61.1
Feb	54.4	50.5	53.2	49.9	61.2
Jan	55.3	51.9	53.9	52.6	61.7
Dec 2017	55.0	52.0	54.8	52.6	60.9
Nov	54.8	51.8	56.2	52.8	61.6
Oct	54.3	51.1	54.3	51.6	60.6
Sep	55.4	52.3	56.1	51.7	61.7
Aug	53.4	50.9	54.4	51.5	61.0
Jul	54.5	51.1	53.1	50.9	61.1
Jun	54.9	51.4	51.2	49.3	61.1
May	54.5	50.9	51.1	48.8	60.2
Apr	54.0	50.5	51.7	50.2	59.7
Mar	55.1	51.9	52.3	49.7	61.3
Feb	54.2	51.2	53.7	51.4	62.4
Jan	54.6	51.3	55.1	51.0	58.9
Dec 2016	54.5	52.1	56.2	51.9	59.5
Nov	54.7	51.8	53.5	51.4	60.7
Oct	54.0	50.9	53.7	51.5	60.6
Sep	53.7	51.4	51.7	50.1	61.1
Aug	53.5	49.8	52.6	50.4	59.4
Jul	53.9	49.9	51.4	49.5	59.5
Jun	53.7	50.8	51.6	50.6	58.6
May	53.1	49.2	51.6	49.8	57.8
Apr	53.5	48.7	52.1	49.1	59.1
Mar	53.8	50.8	51.4	49.5	59.0
Feb	52.7	48.7	50.5	48.3	59.5
Jan	53.5	49.6	49.9	47.7	58.4
Dec2015	54.4	51.7	49.0	48.2	58.3
Nov	53.6	50.2	49.3	47.7	60.0
Oct	53.1	51.2	51.2	48.8	61.1
Sep	53.4	50.2	50.8	47.9	60.0
Aug	53.4	49.6	49.6	47.8	59.7
Jul	53.9	50.1	48.9	47.4	60.0
Jun	53.8	51.3	50.6	48.7	59.7
May	53.2	49.5	52.8	50.4	60.1
Apr	53.4	49.1	50.8	48.9	60.0
Mar	53.7	50.3	50.0	48.4	58.8
Feb	53.9	51.2	52.5	51.2	58.7
Jan	53.7	50.2	47.6	46.9	59.6
Dec 2014	54.1	50.5	50.1	47.3	59.5
Nov	53.9	50.1	50.6	47.7	59.7
Oct	53.8	51.0	52.0	48.8	59.9
Sep	54.0	49.5	49.8	47.3	60.9
Aug	54.4	50.0	52.2	48.3	61.2
Jul	54.2	50.7	53.4	49.5	61.5
Jun	55.0	50.7	56.0	50.8	60.4
May	55.5	52.7	54.5	49.0	60.7
Apr	54.8	50.8	52.4	49.4	61.5
Mar	54.5	50.8	52.8	49.5	61.5
Feb	55.0	51.4	52.1	49.0	59.9
Jan	53.4	50.9	54.5	50.1	58.1
Dec 2013	54.6	51.0	56.9	52.0	58.7
Nov	56.0	51.0	54.8	49.5	61.3
Oct	56.3	51.6	56.1	51.4	60.5
Sep	55.4	53.4	56.7	50.6	60.1
Aug	53.9	50.9	57.1	51.2	62.9
Jul	54.1	50.3	58.2	52.4	63.9
Jun	53.9	50.3	55.0	50.6	61.8
May	54.3	50.1	54.4	50.7	62.9
Apr	54.5	50.9	51.1	47.6	62.5
Mar	55.6	52.0	55.3	50.0	62.4
Feb	54.5	51.8	56.2	51.1	62.7
Jan	56.2	53.7	58.2	50.9	61.4
Dec 2012	56.1	54.3	53.8	50.0	64.6
Nov	55.6	53.2	52.5	48.4	64.6
Oct	55.5	51.6	58.1	50.5	63.4
Sep	53.7	51.8	57.5	51.3	60.9
Aug	56.3	52.7	57.6	51.2	63.2
Jul	55.6	53.2	49.7	48.7	63.9
Jun	56.7	53.7	52.1	48.6	65.5
May	55.2	52.5	53.6	48.5	65.4
Apr	56.1	52.7	57.9	50.3	66.1
Mar	58.0	53.5	60.2	52.0	66.6
Feb	57.3	52.7	59.0	51.2	63.8
Jan	55.7	52.2	58.2	51.1	65.3

Notes: Interm.: Intermediate; Subs: Subscription; Exp: Business Expectations

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart CIPMNM provides China’s nonmanufacturing purchasing managers’ index. The index fell from 56.0 in Oct 2013 to 29.6 in Feb 2020.

Chart CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Table CIPMMFG provides the index of purchasing managers of manufacturing seasonally adjusted of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The general index (IPM) rose from 50.5 in Jan 2012 to 53.3 in Apr 2012, falling to 49.2 in Aug 2012, rebounding to 50.6 in Dec 2012. The index fell to 50.3 in Jul 2013, barely above the neutral frontier at 50.0, recovering to 51.4 in Nov 2013 but falling to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.5 in Jan 2014, 50.1 in Dec 2014 and 35.7 in Feb 2020. The index of new orders fell from 54.5 in Apr 2012 to 51.2 in Dec 2012. The index of new orders fell from 52.3 in Nov 2013 to 52.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.9 in Jan 2014 and moved to 50.4 in Dec 2014. The index moved to 29.3 in Feb 2020.

Table CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted

	IPM	PI	NOI	INV	EMP	SDEL
2020
Jan	50.0	51.3	51.4	47.1	47.5	49.9
Feb	35.7	27.8	29.3	33.9	31.8	32.1
2019
Dec	50.2	53.2	51.2	47.2	47.3	51.1
Nov	50.2	52.6	51.3	47.8	47.3	50.5
Oct	49.3	50.8	49.6	47.4	47.3	50.1
Sep	49.8	52.3	50.5	47.6	47.0	50.5
Aug	49.5	51.9	49.7	47.5	46.9	50.3
Jul	49.7	52.1	49.8	48.0	47.1	50.1
Jun	49.4	51.3	49.6	48.2	46.9	50.2
May	49.4	51.7	49.8	47.4	47.0	50.9
Apr	50.1	52.1	51.4	47.2	47.2	49.9
Mar	50.5	52.7	51.6	48.4	47.6	50.2
Feb	49.2	49.5	50.6	46.3	47.5	49.8
Jan	49.5	50.9	49.6	48.1	47.8	50.1
2018
Dec	49.4	50.8	49.7	47.1	48.0	50.4
Nov	50.0	51.9	50.4	47.4	48.3	50.3
Oct	50.2	52.0	50.8	47.2	48.1	49.5
Sep	50.8	53.0	52.0	47.8	48.3	49.7
Aug	51.3	53.3	52.2	48.7	49.4	49.6
Jul	51.2	53.0	52.3	48.9	49.2	50.0
Jun	51.5	53.6	53.2	48.8	49.0	50.2
May	51.9	54.1	53.8	49.6	49.1	50.1
Apr	51.4	53.1	52.9	49.5	49.0	50.2
Mar	51.5	53.1	53.3	49.6	49.1	50.1
Feb	50.3	50.7	51.0	49.3	48.1	48.4
Jan	51.3	53.5	52.6	48.8	48.3	49.2
2017
Dec	51.6	54.0	53.4	48.0	48.5	49.3
Nov	51.8	54.3	53.6	48.4	48.8	49.5
Oct	51.6	53.4	52.9	48.6	49.0	48.7
Sep	52.4	54.7	54.8	48.9	49.0	49.3
Aug	51.7	54.1	53.1	48.3	49.1	49.3
Jul	51.4	53.5	52.8	48.5	49.2	50.1
Jun	51.7	54.4	53.1	48.6	49.0	49.9
May	51.2	53.4	52.3	48.5	49.4	50.2
Apr	51.2	53.8	52.3	48.3	49.2	50.5
Mar	51.8	54.2	53.3	48.3	50.0	50.3
Feb	51.6	53.7	53.0	48.6	49.7	50.5
Jan	51.3	53.1	52.8	48.0	49.2	49.8
2016
Dec	51.4	53.3	53.2	48.0	48.9	50.0
Nov	51.7	53.9	53.2	48.4	49.2	49.7
Oct	51.2	53.3	52.8	48.1	48.8	50.2
Sep	50.4	52.8	50.9	47.4	48.6	49.9
Aug	50.4	52.6	51.3	47.6	48.4	50.6
Jul	49.9	52.1	50.4	47.3	48.2	50.5
Jun	50.0	52.5	50.5	47.0	47.9	50.7
May	50.1	52.3	50.7	47.6	48.2	50.4
Apr	50.1	52.2	51.0	47.4	47.8	50.1
Mar	50.2	52.3	51.4	48.2	48.1	51.3
Feb	49.0	50.2	48.6	48.0	47.6	49.8
Jan	49.4	51.4	49.5	46.8	47.8	50.5
2015
Dec	49.7	52.2	50.2	47.6	47.4	50.7
Nov	49.6	51.9	49.8	47.1	47.6	50.6
Oct	49.8	52.2	50.3	47.2	47.8	50.6
Sep	49.8	52.3	50.2	47.5	47.9	50.8
Aug	49.7	51.7	49.7	48.3	47.9	50.6
Jul	50.0	52.4	49.9	48.4	48.0	50.4
Jun	50.2	52.9	50.1	48.7	48.1	50.3
May	50.2	52.9	50.6	48.2	48.2	50.9
Apr	50.1	52.6	50.2	48.2	48.0	50.4
Mar	50.1	52.1	50.2	48.0	48.4	50.1
Feb	49.9	51.4	50.4	48.2	47.8	49.9
Jan	49.8	51.7	50.2	47.3	47.9	50.2
2014
Dec	50.1	52.2	50.4	47.5	48.1	49.9
Nov	50.3	52.5	50.9	47.7	48.2	50.3
Oct	50.8	53.1	51.6	48.4	48.4	50.1
Sep	51.1	53.6	52.2	48.8	48.2	50.1
Aug	51.1	53.2	52.5	48.6	48.2	50.0
Jul	51.7	54.2	53.6	49.0	48.3	50.2
Jun	51.0	53.0	52.8	48.0	48.6	50.5
May	50.8	52.8	52.3	48.0	48.2	50.3
Apr	50.4	52.5	51.2	48.1	48.3	50.1
Mar	50.3	52.7	50.6	47.8	48.3	49.8
Feb	50.2	52.6	50.5	47.4	48.0	49.9
Jan	50.5	53.0	50.9	47.8	48.2	49.8
Dec 2013	51.0	53.9	52.0	47.6	48.7	50.5
Nov	51.4	54.5	52.3	47.8	49.6	50.6
Oct	51.4	54.4	52.5	48.6	49.2	50.8
Sep	51.1	52.9	52.8	48.5	49.1	50.8
Aug	51.0	52.6	52.4	48.0	49.3	50.4
Jul	50.3	52.4	50.6	47.6	49.1	50.1
Jun	50.1	52.0	50.4	47.4	48.7	50.3
May	50.8	53.3	51.8	47.6	48.8	50.8
Apr	50.6	52.6	51.7	47.5	49.0	50.8
Mar	50.9	52.7	52.3	47.5	49.8	51.1
Feb	50.1	51.2	50.1	49.5	47.6	48.3
Jan	50.4	51.3	51.6	50.1	47.8	50.0
Dec 2012	50.6	52.0	51.2	47.3	49.0	48.8
Nov	50.6	52.5	51.2	47.9	48.7	49.9
Oct	50.2	52.1	50.4	47.3	49.2	50.1
Sep	49.8	51.3	49.8	47.0	48.9	49.5
Aug	49.2	50.9	48.7	45.1	49.1	50.0
Jul	50.1	51.8	49.0	48.5	49.5	49.0
Jun	50.2	52.0	49.2	48.2	49.7	49.1
May	50.4	52.9	49.8	45.1	50.5	49.0
Apr	53.3	57.2	54.5	48.5	51.0	49.6
Mar	53.1	55.2	55.1	49.5	51.0	48.9
Feb	51.0	53.8	51.0	48.8	49.5	50.3
Jan	50.5	53.6	50.4	49.7	47.1	49.7

IPM: Index of Purchasing Managers; PI: Production Index; NOI: New Orders Index; EMP: Employed Person Index; SDEL: Supplier Delivery Time Index

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

China estimates the manufacturing index of purchasing managers on the basis of a sample of 820 enterprises (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Chart CIPMMFG provides the manufacturing index of purchasing managers. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013. The index decreased from 51.4 in Nov 2013 to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index moved to 35.7 in Feb 2020.

Chart CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Chart CIPCOMP provides China’s composite, manufacturing and nonmanufacturing, index. The index remains above the neutral 50.0, moving to 28.9 in Feb 2020.

Chart CIPCOMP, China, Composite Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Table VC-GDP China, Quarterly Growth of GDP, Current CNY 100 Million and Inflation Adjusted ∆%

Cumulative GDP IVQ2019	Value Current CNY Billion IVQ2019	Value Current CNY Billion IQ2019 to IVQ2019	IVQ2019 Year-on-Year Constant Prices ∆%	Cumulative to IVQ2019 ∆%
GDP	27,802.0	99,086.5	6.0	6.1
Primary Industry	2,746.2	7,046.7	3.4	3.1
Secondary Industry	10,925.3	38,616.5	5.8	5.7
Tertiary Industry	14,130.5	53,423.3	6.6	6.9
Growth in Quarter Relative to Prior Quarter	∆% on Prior Quarter		∆% Annual Equivalent	∆% Year-on-Year
2019
IVQ2019	1.4		5.7	6.0
IIIQ2019	1.6		6.6	6.0
IIQ2019	1.4		5.7	6.2
IQ2019	1.5		6.1	6.4
2018
IVQ2018	1.5		6.1	6.5
IIIQ2018	1.6		6.6	6.7
IIQ2018	1.8		7.4	6.9
IQ2018	1.5		6.1	6.9
2017
IVQ2017	1.6		6.6	6.8
IIIQ2017	1.7		7.0	6.9
IIQ2017	1.8		7.4	7.0
IQ2017	1.6		6.6	7.0
2016
IVQ2016	1.6		6.6	6.9
IIIQ2016	1.7		7.0	6.8
IIQ2016	1.9		7.8	6.8
IQ2016	1.5		6.1	6.9
2015
IVQ2015	1.6		6.6	6.9
IIIQ2015	1.7		7.0	7.0
IIQ2015	1.8		7.4	7.1
IQ2015	1.8		7.4	7.1
2014
IVQ2014	1.7		7.0	7.3
IIIQ2014	1.8		7.4	7.2
IIQ2014	1.8		7.4	7.6
IQ2014	1.8		7.4	7.5
2013
IVQ2013	1.6		6.6	7.7
IIIQ2013	2.1		8.7	7.9
IIQ2013	1.8		7.4	7.6
IQ2013	1.9		7.8	7.9
2012
IVQ2012	2.0		8.2	8.1
IIIQ2012	1.8		7.4	7.5
IIQ2012	2.1		8.7	7.6
IQ2012	1.9		7.8	8.1
2011
IVQ2011	1.5		6.1	8.8
IIIQ2011	1.9		7.8	9.4
IIQ2011	2.4		10.0	10.0
IQ2011	2.4		10.0	10.2

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Growth of China’s GDP in IVQ2019 relative to the same period in 2018 was 6.0 percent and cumulative growth to IVQ2019 was 6.1 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDP. Secondary industry accounts for 39.0 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2019. Tertiary industry accounts for 53.9 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2019 and primary industry for 7.1 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is shifting to lower growth rates with improvement in living standards by increasing growth of services. Table VC-GDPA shows that growth decelerated from 12.1 percent in IQ2010 and 11.2 percent in IIQ2010 to 7.9 percent in IQ2013, 7.6 percent in IIQ2013 and 7.9 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP grew 7.7 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 1.6 percent relative to IIIQ2013, which is equivalent to 6.6 percent per year. GDP grew 7.5 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent in IQ2014 that is equivalent to 7.4 percent per year. GDP grew 7.6 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is annual equivalent 7.4 percent. In IIIQ2014, GDP grew 7.2 percent relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is 7.4 percent in annual equivalent. GDP grew 1.7 percent in IVQ2014, which is 7.0 percent in annual equivalent and 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2015, GDP grew 1.8 percent, which is equivalent to 7.4 in a year and 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 1.8 percent in IIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.4 percent in a year, and grew 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.7 percent in IIIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent in a year, and grew 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.6 percent in IVQ2015, which is equivalent to 6.6 percent in a year and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, GDP grew at 1.5 percent, which is equivalent to 6.1 percent in a year, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.9 percent in IIQ2016, which is annual equivalent to 7.8 percent, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, GDP grew at 1.7 percent, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent in a year and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, GDP grew at 1.6 percent, equivalent to 6.6 percent in a year, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 7.0 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased at 1.6 percent, which is 6.6 percent in annual equivalent. In IIQ2017, GDP grew at 1.8 percent, which is annual equivalent at 7.4 percent, and increased 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.7 percent in IIIQ2017, which is annual equivalent at 7.0 percent, and increased at 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, GDP grew 1.6 percent, which is annual equivalent to 6.6 percent, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.5 percent in IQ2018, which is annual equivalent at 6.1 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2018, GDP grew at 1.8 percent, which is annual equivalent to 7.4 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.6 percent in IIIQ2018, which is annual equivalent at 6.6 percent, and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2018, GDP grew at 1.5 percent, which is annual equivalent to 6.1 percent, and increased 6.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.5 percent in IQ2019, which is annual equivalent to 6.1 percent, and increased 6.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2019, GDP grew at 1.4 percent, which is annual equivalent to 5.7 percent and increased 6.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.6 percent in IIIQ2019, which is annual equivalent to 6.6 percent, and increased 6.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2019, GDP grew at 1.4 percent, which is annual equivalent to 5.7 percent, and increased 6.0 percent relative to a year earlier.

Table VC-GDPA China, Growth Rate of GDP, ∆% Relative to a Year Earlier and ∆% Relative to Prior Quarter

	IQ2019	IIQ2019	IIIQ2019	IVQ2019
GDP	6.4	6.2	6.0	6.0
Primary Industry	2.7	3.3	2.7	3.4
Secondary Industry	6.1	5.6	5.2	5.8
Tertiary Industry	7.0	7.0	7.2	6.6
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.5 (6.1)	1.4 (5.7)	1.6 (6.6)	1.4 (5.7)
	IQ2018	IIQ2018	IIIQ2018	IVQ2018
GDP	6.9	6.9	6.7	6.5
Primary Industry	3.2	3.2	3.6	3.5
Secondary Industry	6.3	6.0	5.3	5.8
Tertiary Industry	7.5	7.8	7.9	7.4
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.5 (6.1)	1.8 (7.4)	1.6 (6.6)	1.5 (6.1)
	IQ2017	IIQ2017	IIIQ2017	IVQ2017
GDP	7.0	7.0	6.9	6.8
Primary Industry	3.0	3.8	3.9	4.4
Secondary Industry	6.4	6.4	6.0	5.7
Tertiary Industry	7.7	7.6	8.0	8.3
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.6 (6.6)	1.8 (7.4)	1.7 (7.0)	1.6 (6.6)
	IQ2016	IIQ2016	IIIQ2016	IVQ2016
GDP	6.9	6.8	6.8	6.9
Primary Industry	2.9	3.1	3.5	2.9
Secondary Industry	5.8	6.3	6.1	6.1
Tertiary Industry	7.6	7.5	7.6	8.3
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.5 (6.1)	1.9 (7.8)	1.7 (7.0)	1.6 (6.6)
	IQ2015	IIQ2015	IIIQ2015	IVQ2015
GDP	7.1	7.1	7.0	6.9
Primary Industry	3.2	3.5	3.8	4.1
Secondary Industry	6.4	6.1	6.0	6.1
Tertiary Industry	7.9	8.4	8.4	8.2
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.8 (7.4)	1.8 (7.4)	1.7 (7.0)	1.6 (6.6)
	IQ2014	IIQ2014	IIIQ2014	IVQ2014
GDP	7.5	7.6	7.2	7.3
Primary Industry	3.5	3.9	4.2	4.1
Secondary Industry	7.3	7.4	7.4	7.3
Tertiary Industry	7.1	8.0	7.9	8.1
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.8 (7.4)	1.8 (7.4)	1.8 (7.4)	1.7 (7.0)
	IQ2013	IIQ2013	IIIQ2013	IVQ2013
GDP	7.9	7.6	7.9	7.7
Primary Industry	3.4	3.0	3.4	4.0
Secondary Industry	7.8	7.6	7.8	7.8
Tertiary Industry	8.3	8.3	8.4	8.3
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.9 (7.8)	1.8 (7.4)	2.1 (8.7)	1.6 (6.6)
	IQ2012	IIQ2012	IIIQ2012	IVQ2012

GDP	8.1	7.6	7.5	8.1
Primary Industry	3.8	4.3	4.2	4.5
Secondary Industry	9.1	8.3	8.1	8.1
Tertiary Industry	7.5	7.7	7.9	8.1
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.9 (7.8)	2.1 (8.7)	1.8 (7.4)	2.0 (8.2)
	IQ2011	IIQ2011	IIIQ2011	IVQ2011
GDP	10.2	10.0	9.4	8.8
Primary Industry	3.5	3.2	3.8	4.5
Secondary Industry	11.1	11.0	10.8	10.6
Tertiary Industry	9.1	9.2	9.0	8.9
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	2.4 (10.0)	2.4 (10.0)	1.9 (7.8)	1.5 (6.1)
	IQ2010	IIQ2010	IIIQ2010	IVQ2010
GDP	12.1	11.2	10.7	12.1
Primary Industry	3.8	3.6	4.0	3.8
Secondary Industry	14.5	13.3	12.6	14.5
Tertiary Industry	10.5	9.9	9.7	10.5

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Growth of China’s GDP in IVQ2016 relative to the same period in 2016 was 6.8 percent and

Chart VC-GDP of the National Bureau of Statistics of China provides annual value and growth rates of GDP. China’s GDP growth in 2016 is still high at 6.7 percent but at the lowest rhythm in five years.

Chart VC-GDP, China, Gross Domestic Product, Million Yuan and ∆%

Source: National bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart VC-FXR provides China’s foreign exchange reserves. FX reserves grew from $2399.2 billion in 2009 to $38430 billion in 2013 driven by high growth of China’s trade surplus, decreasing to $30105 billion in 2016.

Chart VC-FXR, China, Foreign Exchange Reserves, 2012-2016

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Chart VC-Trade provides China’s imports and exports. Exports exceeded imports with resulting large trade balance surpluses that increased foreign exchange reserves.

Chart VC-Trade, China, Imports and Exports of Goods, 2012-2016, $100 Million US Dollars

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Chart VC-PCDI provides the level and growth rates of per capita disposable income in China.

Chart VC-PCDI, China, Level and Growth Rates of Per Capita Disposable Income

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

The Caixin Flash China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) compiled by Markit (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/883014a121534f51bc42e5060845f727) is mixed. The overall Flash Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI^™ decreased from 47.3 in Aug to 47.0 in Sep, while the Flash Caixin China General Manufacturing Output Index decreased from 46.4 in Aug to 45.7 in Sep, indicating weaker conditions. He Fan, Chief Economist at Caixin Insight Group finds need of fiscal and monetary policy (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/883014a121534f51bc42e5060845f727). The Caixin China General Services PMI^™, compiled by Markit, shows that the Caixin Composite Output, combining manufacturing and services, decreased from 51.9 in Jan to 27.5 in Feb (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/53021485aa334b7e92c1662643b6a974). Zhengsheng Zhong, Chairman and Chief Economist at CEBM Group, finds contracting activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/53021485aa334b7e92c1662643b6a974). The Caixin General Manufacturing PMI^™ decreased to 40.3 in Feb from 51.1 in Jan, indicating contracting conditions in manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/7826fe514cf84a7ab283b9d585c412e6). Zhengsheng Zhong, Chairman and Chief Economist at CEBM Group, finds weak growth conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/7826fe514cf84a7ab283b9d585c412e6). Table CNY provides the country data table for China.

Table CNY, China, Economic Indicators

Price Indexes for Industry	Jan 12-month ∆%: 0.1 Jan month ∆%: 0.0 Blog 2/16/20
Consumer Price Index	Jan 12-month ∆%: 5.4 Dec month ∆%: 1.4 Blog 2/16/20
Value Added of Industry	Dec month ∆%: 0.58 Jan-Dec 2019/Jan-Dec 2018 ∆%: 5.7 Earlier Data Blog 4/19/15
GDP Growth Rate	Year-on-Year IVQ2019 ∆%: 6.0 IV Quarter 2019 ∆%: 1.4 Quarter IVQ2019 AE ∆%: 5.7 Blog 2/2/20
Investment in Fixed Assets	Total Jan-Dec 2019 ∆%: 5.4 Real estate development: 9.9 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Retail Sales	Dec month ∆%: 0.53 Jan-Dec 2019 ∆%: 8.0 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Trade Balance	Cumulative 2019 Balance $424.9 Exports 12M ∆% 0.5 Imports 12M ∆% -2.8 Dec 2019 Balance $46.79 billion Exports 12M ∆% 7.6 Imports 12M ∆% 16.3 Dec 2018 $56.80 billion Exports 12M ∆% -1.1 Imports 12M ∆% 0.3 Dec 2018 balance 57.06 billion Exports 12M ∆% -4.4 Imports 12M ∆% -7.6 Dec 2017 balance $53.85 billion 2018 Exports ∆% 9.9 2018 Imports ∆% 15.8 2017 Exports ∆% 7.9 2017 Imports ∆% 15.9 2016 Exports ∆% 11.3 2016 Imports ∆% 17.3 Cumulative Dec 2018: $351.76 Cumulative Dec 2017: $422.50 billion Cumulative Dec 2016: $486.0 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15

Links to blog comments in Table CNY: 2/16/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/recovery-without-hiring-in-lost.html

2/2/2020 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/decreasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

1/19/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/01/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

12/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/increase-in-valuations-of-risk_14.html

11/17/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial_16.html

11/3/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/decrease-of-fomc-policy-rate-monetary.html

10/20/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/dollar-depreciation-fluctuating.html

9/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/competitive-exchange-rate-and-interest.html

7/28/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/dollar-appreciation-in-anticipations-of.html

7/14/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/fomc-uncertain-outlook-frank-h-knights.html

4/28/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/04/high-levels-of-valuations-of-risk.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

VD Euro Area. Using calendar and seasonally adjusted chain-linked volumes (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of the euro area (19 countries) fell 5.7 percent from IQ2008 to IIQ2009. The GDP of the euro area (19 countries) increased 15.2 percent from IIIQ2009 to IIIQ2019 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.4 percent. The GDP of the euro area (19 countries) is higher by 8.6 percent in IIIQ2019 relative to the pre-recession peak in IQ2008, growing at annual equivalent rate of 0.7 percent. The GDP of the euro area (18) countries increased at the average yearly rate of 2.3 percent from IQ1999 to IQ2008 while that of the euro area (19 countries) increased at 2.3 percent. The GDP of the euro area (19 countries) grew at 2.3 percent annual equivalent from IQ1999 to the pre-recession peak in IQ2008. The GDP of the euro area would grow under trend of 2.3 percent from €2,614,693.8 million in IQ2008 to €3,396,179.4 million in IIIQ2019. The estimate of GDP of €2,840,462.4 million in IIIQ2019 is 16.4 percent below trend. Table VD-EUR provides yearly growth rates of the combined GDP of the members of the European Monetary Union (EMU) or euro area since 1999. Growth was very strong at 3.2 percent in 2006 and 3.0 percent in 2007. The global recession had strong impact with growth of only 0.4 percent in 2008 and decline of 4.5 percent in 2009. Recovery was at lower growth rates of 2.1 percent in 2010 and 1.5 percent in 2011. EUROSTAT estimates growth of GDP of the euro area of minus 0.9 percent in 2012 and minus 0.3 percent in 2013. Euro Area GDP grew 1.2 percent in 2014 and grew 2.0 percent in 2015. The GDP of the euro area grew 1.7 percent in 2016.

Table VD-EUR, Euro Area, Yearly Percentage Change of Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, Unemployment and GDP ∆%

Year	HICP ∆%	Unemployment %	GDP ∆%
1999	1.2	9.7	3.0
2000	2.2	8.9	3.8
2001	2.4	8.3	2.1
2002	2.3	8.6	1.0
2003	2.1	9.1	0.7
2004	2.2	9.3	2.3
2005	2.2	9.1	1.7
2006	2.2	8.4	3.2
2007	2.2	7.5	3.0
2008	3.3	7.6	0.4
2009	0.3	9.6	-4.5
2010	1.6	10.2	2.1
2011	2.7	10.2	1.5
2012	2.5	11.4	-0.9
2013	1.3	12.0	-0.3
2014	0.4	11.6	1.2
2015	0.0	10.9	2.0
2016	0.2	10.0	1.7

Source: EUROSTAT

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

The GDP of the euro area in 2015 in current US dollars in the dataset of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is $11,990.9 billion or 16.3 percent of world GDP of $73,598.8 billion (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/02/weodata/index.aspx). The sum of the GDP of France $2420.2 billion with the GDP of Germany of $3365.3 billion, Italy of $1815.8 billion and Spain $1199.7 billion is $8,801.0 billion or 73.4 percent of total euro area GDP and 13.1 percent of World GDP. The four largest economies account for slightly more than three quarters of economic activity of the euro area. Table VD-EUR1 is constructed with the dataset of EUROSTAT, providing growth rates of the euro area as a whole and of the largest four economies of Germany, France, Italy and Spain annually from 1996 to 2016. The impact of the global recession on the overall euro area economy and on the four largest economies was quite strong. There was sharp contraction in 2009 and growth rates have not rebounded to earlier growth with exception of Germany in 2010 and 2011.

Table VD-EUR1, Euro Area, Real GDP Growth Rate, ∆%

	Euro Area	Germany	France	Italy	Spain
2016	1.7	1.9	1.2	0.9	3.2
2015	2.0	1.7	1.3	0.8	3.2
2014	1.2	1.6	0.6	0.1	1.4
2013	-0.3	0.5	0.6	-1.7	-1.7
2012	-0.9	0.5	0.2	-2.8	-2.9
2011	1.5	3.7	2.1	0.6	-1.0
2010	2.1	4.1	2.0	1.7	0.0
2009	-4.5	-5.6	-2.9	-5.5	-3.6
2008	0.4	1.1	0.2	-1.1	1.1
2007	3.0	3.3	2.4	1.5	3.8
2006	3.2	3.7	2.4	2.0	4.2
2005	1.7	0.7	1.6	0.9	3.7
2004	2.3	1.2	2.8	1.6	3.2
2003	0.7	-0.7	0.8	0.2	3.2
2002	1.0	0.0	1.1	0.2	2.9
2001	2.1	1.7	2.0	1.8	4.0
2000	3.8	3.0	3.9	3.7	5.3
1999	3.0	2.0	3.4	1.6	4.5
1998	2.9	2.0	3.6	1.6	4.3
Average 1999-2016	1.2	1.3	1.3	0.3	1.7
Average 1999-2007	2.2	1.6	2.1	1.5	3.8
Average 2016-2007	0.3	1.0	0.6	-7.0*	-0.5*
1997	2.6	1.8	2.3	1.8	3.7
1996	1.6	0.8	1.4	1.3	2.7

Note: Absolute percentage change

Source: EUROSTAT

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

The Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index of the HIS Markit Flash Eurozone PMI^®, combining activity in manufacturing and services, increased from 51.3 in Jan to 51.6 in Feb (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/ea5340542a964fb893edd6871f0b291e). Chris Williamson, Associate Director at IHS Markit, finds that the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI index suggests GDP growing at quarterly rate close to 2.0 percent (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/ea5340542a964fb893edd6871f0b291e). The IHS Markit Eurozone PMI^® Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing activity with close association with GDP increased from 51.3 in Jan to 51.6 in Feb (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/09ee6693e65a49e49af449b2fc82d125). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds slower potential for quarterly growth at around 0.1 to 0.2 percent in GDP (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/09ee6693e65a49e49af449b2fc82d125). The IHS Markit Eurozone Services Business Activity Index increased from 52.5 in Jan to 52.6 in Feb (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/09ee6693e65a49e49af449b2fc82d125). The IHS Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI^® increased from 47.9 in Jan to 49.2 in Feb (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/3fd4432cd0ed411bb968b643486d5f6b). New export orders decreased. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds stabilizing conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/3fd4432cd0ed411bb968b643486d5f6b). Table EUR provides the data table for the euro area.

Table EUR, Euro Area Economic Indicators

GDP	IIIQ2019 ∆% 0.2; IIIQ2019/IIIQ2018 ∆% 1.2 Blog 9/13/15 11/22/15 12/13/15 2/14/16 3/13/16 5/1/16 5/15/16 6/12/16 8/7/16 8/14/16 9/11/16 11/20/16 12/11/16 02/26/17 3/12/17 5/21/17 6/11/17 8/20/17 9/10/17 11/26/17 12/10/17 2/18/18 3/11/18 5/20/18 6/10/18 8/19/18 9/16/18 11/18/18 12/16/18 3/10/19 5/26/19 6/9/19 9/15/19 12/29/19
Unemployment	Jan 2020: 7.4 % unemployment rate; Jan 2020: 12.179 million unemployed Blog 3/8/20
HICP	Jan month ∆%: -1.0 12 months Jan ∆%: 1.4 Blog 3/1/20
Producer Prices	Euro Zone industrial producer prices Jan ∆%: 0.4 Jan 12-month ∆%: -0.5 Blog 3/8/20
Industrial Production	Dec Month ∆%: -2.1; 12 months ∆%: -4.1 Earlier Data: Blog 5/19/15
Retail Sales	Jan month ∆%: 0.6 Jan 12 months ∆%: 1.7 Earlier Data: Blog 3/15/15
Confidence and Economic Sentiment Indicator	Sentiment 103.5 Feb 2020 Consumer -6.6 Feb 2020 Earlier Data: Blog 4/5/15
Trade	Jan-Dec 2019/Jan-Dec 2018 Exports ∆%: 2.7 Imports ∆%: 1.5 Dec 2019 12-month Exports ∆% 4.8 Imports ∆% 1.1 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15

Links to blog comments in Table EUR: 3/1/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/sharp-worldwide-contraction-of.html

2/9/2020 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

1/26/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/01/declining-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

1/12/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/01/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

12/29/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/diverging-economic-conditions-and.html

12/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/increase-in-valuations-of-risk_14.html

12/8/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/increase-in-valuations-of-risk.html

1/24/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/oscillating-risk-financial-assets-world.html

11/10/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

11/3/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/decrease-of-fomc-policy-rate-monetary.html

10/20/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/dollar-depreciation-fluctuating.html

10/6/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/volatility-of-valuations-of-risk.html

9/22/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/uncertain-fomc-outlook-of-monetary.html

9/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/competitive-exchange-rate-and-interest.html

9/8/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/increase-in-valuations-of-risk.html

8/25/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/contraction-of-valuations-of-risk.html

8/4/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/dollar-appreciation-contraction-of.html

7/21/2019 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/global-manufacturing-stress-world.html

7/7/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/twenty-million-unemployed-or.html

6/9/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/06/increase-of-valuations-of-risk.html

5/26/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/05/contraction-of-risk-financial-assets.html

3/10/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/03/dollar-revaluation-twenty-one-million.html

12/16/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/12/slowing-world-economic-growth-and.html

9/16/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/09/recovery-without-hiring-in-lost.html

8/19/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/08/world-inflation-waves-lost-economic.html

6/10/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

5/20/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/dollar-revaluation-united-states_24.html

3/11/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/twenty-three-million-unemployed-or.html

2/18/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/united-states-inflation-trend-or.html

12/10/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

11/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/11/the-lost-economic-cycle-of-global_25.html

9/10/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

8/20/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

6/11/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/flattening-us-treasury-yield-curve.html

5/21/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/dollar-devaluation-world-inflation.html

3/12/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/increasing-interest-rates-twenty-four.html

2/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

12/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/rising-values-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/20/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/interest-rate-increase-could-well.html

11/13/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/dollar-revaluation-and-valuations-of.html

11/6/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/the-case-for-increase-in-federal-funds.html

9/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/interest-rate-uncertainty-and-valuation.html

8/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

8/7/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/global-competitive-easing-or.html

6/12/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/considerable-uncertainty-about-economic.html

5/15/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

5/1/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/economic-activity-appears-to-have.html

3/13/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/monetary-policy-and-fluctuations-of_13.html

3/6/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/twenty-five-million-unemployed-or.html

2/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/subdued-foreign-growth-and-dollar.html

12/13/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/liftoff-of-interest-rates-with-volatile_17.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

EUROSTAT estimates the rate of unemployment in the euro area at 7.4 percent in Jan

2020, as shown in Table VD-1. The number of unemployed in Jan 2020 was 12.179 million, which was lower by 0.593 million than 12.772 million in Jan 2019. The rate of unemployment fell from 7.8 percent in Jan 2019 to 7.4 percent in Jan 2020.

Table VD-1, Euro Area, Unemployment Rate and Number of Unemployed, % and Millions, SA

	Unemployment Rate %	Number Unemployed Millions
Jan 2020	7.4	12.179
Dec 2019	7.4	12.178
Nov	7.4	12.209
Oct	7.4	12.233
Sep	7.5	12.341
Aug	7.5	12.338
Jul	7.6	12.421
Jun	7.5	12.359
May	7.6	12.405
Apr	7.6	12.473
Mar	7.7	12.550
Feb	7.8	12.703
Jan	7.8	12.772
Dec 2018	7.8	12.813
Nov	7.9	12.916
Oct	8.0	13.081
Sep	8.0	13.076
Aug	8.0	13.131
Jul	8.1	13.221
Jun	8.2	13.425
May	8.3	13.476
Apr	8.4	13.672
Mar	8.5	13.788
Feb	8.5	13.888
Jan	8.6	14.047
Dec 2017	8.6	14.077
Nov	8.7	14.197
Oct	8.8	14.315
Sep	8.9	14.475
Aug	9.0	14.644
Jul	9.1	14.745
Jun	9.1	14.734
May	9.2	14.929
Apr	9.2	14.968
Mar	9.4	15.207
Feb	9.4	15.298
Jan	9.6	15.489
Dec 2016	9.6	15.652
Nov	9.8	15.856
Oct	9.8	15.851
Sep	9.9	16.001
Aug	9.9	16.032
Jul	10.0	16.171
Jun	10.1	16.380
May	10.2	16.458
Apr	10.2	16.576
Mar	10.2	16.570
Feb	10.4	16.757
Jan	10.4	16.740
Dec 2015	10.5	16.874
Nov	10.5	16.887
Oct	10.6	17.070
Sep	10.6	17.062
Aug	10.7	17.133
Jul	10.8	17.307
Jun	11.0	17.665
May	11.0	17.753
Apr	11.1	17.839
Mar	11.2	17.968
Feb	11.2	17.983
Jan	11.3	18.116
Dec 2014	11.3	18.249
Nov	11.5	18.535
Oct	11.5	18.524
Sep	11.5	18.497
Aug	11.5	18.394
Jul	11.6	18.595
Jun	11.5	18.480
May	11.7	18.712
Apr	11.7	18.760
Mar	11.8	18.912
Feb	11.9	19.002
Jan	11.9	19.078
Dec 2013	11.9	19.033
Nov	11.9	19.106
Oct	12.0	19.163
Sep	12.0	19.295
Aug	12.0	19.263
Jul	12.0	19.320
Jun	12.1	19.348
May	12.1	19.349
Apr	12.1	19.382
Mar	12.0	19.288
Feb	12.1	19.314
Jan	12.0	19.254
Dec 2012	11.9	19.046
Nov	11.8	18.953
Oct	11.7	18.833
Sep	11.6	18.591
Aug	11.5	18.434
Jul	11.5	18.359
Jun	11.4	18.239
May	11.3	18.080
Apr	11.2	17.907
Mar	11.1	17.688
Feb	10.9	17.419
Jan	10.8	17.186
Dec 2011	10.7	17.089
Nov	10.6	16.899
Oct	10.5	16.660
Sep	10.4	16.500
Aug	10.2	16.267
Jul	10.2	16.121
Jun	10.0	15.940
May	10.0	15.857
Apr	10.0	15.779
Mar	10.0	15.876
Feb	10.0	15.884
Jan	10.1	15.966
Dec 2010	10.1	16.033

Source: EUROSTAT

Table VD-2 shows the disparity in rates of unemployment in the euro area with 7.4 percent for the region as a whole and 12.179 million unemployed but 3.2 percent for Germany and 1.412 million unemployed. At the other extreme is Spain with rate of unemployment of 13.7 percent and 3.178 million unemployed. The rate of unemployment of the European Union in Jan 2020 is 6.2 percent with 15.349 million unemployed.

Table VD-2, Unemployed and Unemployment Rate in Countries and Regions, Millions and %

Jan 2020	Unemployment Rate %	Unemployed Millions
Euro Zone	7.4	12.179
Germany	3.2	1.412
France	8.2	2.428
Netherlands	3.0	0.284
Finland	6.6	0.182
Portugal	6.9	0.359
Ireland	4.8	0.120
Italy	9.8	2.528
Greece	16.5*	0.773*
Spain	13.7	3.178
Belgium	5.3	0.272
European Union	6.2	15.349

*Nov 2019

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

Chart VD-1 of EUROSTAT illustrates the wide difference in rates of unemployment in countries and regions.

Chart VD-1, Unemployment Rate in Various Countries and Regions

Source: EUROSTAT

VE Germany. Table VE-DE provides yearly growth rates of the German economy from 1971 to 2019, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked (https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2019/11/PE19_448_811.html). Germany’s GDP fell 5.7 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.1 percent in 2008. Recovery had been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.2 percent in 2010, 3.9 percent in 2011 and 0.4 percent in 2012. Growth stabilized to 0.4 percent in 2013, increasing to 2.2 percent in 2014. The German economy grew at 1.7 percent in 2015 and grew at 2.2 percent in 2016. Germany’s GDP increased 2.5 percent in 2017 and increased 1.5 percent in 2018. The German economy grew at 0.6 percent in 2019.

The Federal Statistical Agency of Germany analyzes the fall and recovery of the German economy in its earlier website (http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Content/Statistics/VolkswirtschaftlicheGesamtrechnungen/Inlandsprodukt/Aktuell,templateId=renderPrint.psml):

“The German economy again grew strongly in 2011. The price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.0% compared with the previous year. Accordingly, the catching-up process of the German economy continued during the second year after the economic crisis. In the course of 2011, the price-adjusted GDP again exceeded its pre-crisis level. The economic recovery occurred mainly in the first half of 2011. In 2009, Germany experienced the most serious post-war recession, when GDP suffered a historic decline of 5.1%. The year 2010 was characterised by a rapid economic recovery (+3.7%).”

Table VE-DE, Germany, GDP ∆% on Prior Year

	Price Adjusted Chain-Linked	Price- and Calendar-Adjusted Chain Linked
Average ∆% 1991-2019	1.4
Average ∆% 1991-2018	1.4
Average ∆% 1991-1999	1.4
Average ∆% 2000-2007	1.3
Average ∆% 2003-2007	2.2
Average ∆% 2007-2019	1.2
Average ∆% 2009-2018	2.1
2019	0.6	0.6
2018	1.5	1.5
2017	2.5	2.8
2016	2.2	2.1
2015	1.7	1.5
2014	2.2	2.2
2013	0.4	0.5
2012	0.4	0.6
2011	3.9	4.0
2010	4.2	4.0
2009	-5.7	-5.6
2008	1.0	0.7
2007	3.0	3.1
2006	3.8	4.0
2005	0.7	0.9
2004	1.2	0.7
2003	-0.7	-0.7
2002	-0.2	-0.2
2001	1.7	1.8
2000	2.9	3.1
1999	1.9	1.7
1998	2.0	1.8
1997	1.8	1.9
1996	0.8	0.8
1995	1.5	1.6
1994	2.4	2.5
1993	-1.0	-1.0
1992	1.9	1.5
1991	5.1	5.2
1990	5.3	5.5
1989	3.9	4.0
1988	3.7	3.4
1987	1.4	1.3
1986	2.3	2.3
1985	2.3	2.6
1984	2.8	2.9
1983	1.6	1.5
1982	-0.4	-0.5
1981	0.5	0.6
1980	1.4	1.3
1979	4.2	4.3
1978	3.0	3.1
1977	3.3	3.5
1976	4.9	4.5
1975	-0.9	-0.9
1974	0.9	1.0
1973	4.8	5.0
1972	4.3	4.3
1971	3.1	3.0
1970	NA	NA

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/02/PE20_056_811.html

The Flash Germany Composite Output Index of the IHS Markit Flash Germany PMI^®, combining manufacturing and services, decreased from 51.2 in Jan to 51.1 in Feb. The index of manufacturing output reached 47.0 in Feb, increasing from 45.6 in Jan, while the index of services decreased to 53.3 in Feb from 54.2 in Jan. The overall Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI^® increased from 45.3 in Jan to 47.8 in Feb (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/c20fc04888834cb1b470460f4acaae48). New orders increased and new export orders decreased. Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit, finds easing manufacturing of Germany with growing services (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/c20fc04888834cb1b470460f4acaae48). The IHS Markit Germany Composite Output Index of the IHS Markit Germany Services PMI^®, combining manufacturing and services with close association with Germany’s GDP, decreased from 51.2 in Jan to 50.7 in Feb (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/08893440f0d641da9ff1f7ad0665f757). Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit, finds stabilizing conditions of Germany (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/08893440f0d641da9ff1f7ad0665f757). The Germany Services Business Activity Index increased from 54.2 in Jan to 52.5 in Feb (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/08893440f0d641da9ff1f7ad0665f757). The IHS Markit/BME Germany Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®), showing close association with Germany’s manufacturing conditions, increased from 45.3 in Jan to 48.0 in Feb (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/7758d7cfcd29489c903193058da0bd3e). New export orders decreased. Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit, finds changing conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/7758d7cfcd29489c903193058da0bd3e). Table DE provides the country data table for Germany.

Table DE, Germany, Economic Indicators

GDP	IVQ2019 0.0 ∆%; IVQ2019/IVQ2018 NCSA ∆% 0.3 CA 0.4 2016/2015: 2.2 CA 2.1 2017/2016: 2.5 CA 2.8 2018/2017: 1.5 CA 1.5 GDP ∆% 1970-2018 Blog 8/26/12 5/27/12 11/25/12 2/24/13 5/19/13 5/26/13 8/18/13 8/25/13 11/17/13 11/24/13 1/26/14 2/16/14 3/2/14 5/18/14 5/25/14 8/17/14 9/7/14 11/16/14 11/30/14 2/15/15 3/1/15 5/17/15 5/24/15 8/16/15 8/30/15 11/22/15 11/29/15 2/14/16 2/28/16 5/15/16 5/29/16 8/14/16 8/28/16 11/20/16 11/27/16 2/19/17 02/26/17 05/14/17 5/28/17 8/20/17 8/27/17 11/26/17 2/18/18 2/25/18 5/20/18 5/27/18 8/19/18 9/2/18 11/18/18 11/25/18 4/14/19 5/26/19 9/1/19 12/1/19 3/8/20
Consumer Price Index	Jan month NSA ∆%: -0.8 Jan 12-month NSA ∆%: 1.6 Blog 1/20/19 12/15/19 3/1/20
Producer Price Index	Jan month 0.8 12 months 0.5 Blog 3/17/19 3/8/20
Industrial Production	MFG Production Dec month CSA ∆%: -1.2 12-month NSA: NA -5.8 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Machine Orders	MF Dec month ∆%: 0.5 Dec 12-month ∆%: -6.9 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Retail Sales	Jan Month ∆% 0.9 12-Month ∆% 1.8 Earlier Data: Blog 4/5/15
Employment Report	Unemployment Rate SA Jan 3.2% Blog 3/8/20
Trade Balance	Exports Dec 12-month NSA ∆%: 2.3 Imports Dec 12 months NSA ∆%: 1.2 Exports Dec month CSA ∆%: 0.1; Imports Dec month CSA minus 0.7 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15

Links to blog comments in Table DE: 3/1/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/sharp-worldwide-contraction-of.html

2/9/2020 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

1/12/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/01/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

12/29/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/diverging-economic-conditions-and.html

12/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/increase-in-valuations-of-risk_14.html

12/8/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/increase-in-valuations-of-risk.html

12/1/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

11/24/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/oscillating-risk-financial-assets-world.html

11/3/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/decrease-of-fomc-policy-rate-monetary.html

10/27/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial_26.html

10/20/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/dollar-depreciation-fluctuating.html

10/6/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/volatility-of-valuations-of-risk.html

9/29/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/dollar-appreciation-decreasing.html

9/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/competitive-exchange-rate-and-interest.html

9/8/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/increase-in-valuations-of-risk.html

9/1/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/revaluation-of-us-dollar-falling-yields.html

8/25/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/contraction-of-valuations-of-risk.html

8/18/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/global-decline-of-yields-of-government.html

8/4/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/dollar-appreciation-contraction-of.html

7/14/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/fomc-uncertain-outlook-frank-h-knights.html

7/7/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/twenty-million-unemployed-or.html

6/2/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/06/contraction-of-risk-financial-assets.html

5/26/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/05/contraction-of-risk-financial-assets.html

5/5/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

4/14/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/04/recovery-without-hiring-labor.html

1/20/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/01/world-inflation-waves-world-financial_24.html

11/25/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/11/weaker-world-economic-growth-with.html

11/18/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/11/weakening-gdp-growth-in-major-economies.html

9/2/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/09/revision-of-united-states-national.html

8/19/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/08/world-inflation-waves-lost-economic.html

5/27/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/dollar-strengthening-world-inflation.html

5/20/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/dollar-revaluation-united-states_24.html

2/25/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

2/18/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/united-states-inflation-trend-or.html

11/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/11/the-lost-economic-cycle-of-global_25.html

8/27/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/dollar-devaluation-and-interest-rate.html

5/28/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

5/14/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million_14.html

2/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

02/19/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

11/27/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/dollar-revaluation-rising-yields-and.html

11/20/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/interest-rate-increase-could-well.html

11/13/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/dollar-revaluation-and-valuations-of.html

11/6/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/the-case-for-increase-in-federal-funds.html

8/28/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/and-as-ever-economic-outlook-is.html

8/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

5/29/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/appropriate-for-fed-to-increase.html

5/15/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

2/28/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

2/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/subdued-foreign-growth-and-dollar.html

11/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/dollar-revaluation-constraining.html

11/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-liftoff-followed-by.html

08/30/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/fluctuations-of-global-financial.html

08/16/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/exchange-rate-and-financial-asset.html

5/24/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/interest-rate-policy-and-dollar.html

5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

9/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/competitive-monetary-policy-and.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

1/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/01/capital-flows-exchange-rates-and.html

11/24/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html

8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

The Federal Statistical Office of Germany released estimates for IVQ2019 on Feb 25, 2020 (https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2019/11/PE19_448_811.html). Table VE-1 provides percentage change of Germany’s GDP in one quarter relative to the prior quarter from 1999 to 2019. Germany’s GDP contracted during four consecutive quarters from IIQ2008 to IQ2009. The deepest contraction was 4.7 percent in IQ2009. Growth was quite strong from IIIQ2009 to IQ2011 for cumulative growth of 8.1 percent in seven quarters or at the average rate of 1.1 percent per quarter, which is equivalent to 4.5 percent per year. Economic growth decelerated in IIQ2011 to 0.1 percent and 0.9 percent in IIIQ2011. The economy grew contracted 0.3 percent in IVQ2011 and grew 0.2 percent in IQ2012 but at 0.2 percent in IIQ2012. GDP growth in IIIQ2012 was 0.3 percent relative to IIQ2012. Germany’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IIIQ2012. GDP decreased 0.5 percent in IQ2013 and increased 1.1 percent in IIQ2013. Growth of GDP was 0.5 percent in IIIQ2013 and 0.3 percent in IVQ2013. Germany’s growth was robust at revised 1.0 percent in IQ2014 or 4.1 percent in annual equivalent. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2014. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014. The GDP of Germany increased 0.9 percent in IVQ2014. GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2015. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2015 and grew 0.4 percent in IVQ2015. GDP grew 0.8 percent in IQ2016 and increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2016. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2016. GDP grew 1.2 percent in IQ2017 and increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2017. GDP grew 0.9 percent in IIIQ2017 and increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2017. GDP grew 0.1 percent in IQ2018 and increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2018. GDP contracted 0.1 percent in IIIQ2018 and increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2018. GDP grew 0.5 percent in IQ2019 and contracted 0.2 percent in IIQ2019. GDP grew 0.2 percent in IIIQ2019 and changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2019. Using seasonally and calendar adjusted data (https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/02/PE20_056_811.html), Germany’s GDP contracted 7.0 percent from IQ2008 to IQ2009. GDP grew 22.5 percent IQ2009 to IVQ2019 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.9 percent. GDP grew 13.9 percent from IQ2008 to IVQ2019 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.1

percent.

The Federal Statistical Office of Germany released estimates for IVQ2019 on Feb 25, 2020 (https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/02/PE20_056_811.html). Consumption expenditures of households and NPISH changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2019. Government final consumption increased 0.3 percent and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) decreased 0.2 percent. GFCF in machinery and equipment decreased 2.0 percent and GFCF in construction increased 0.6 percent. Net trade deducted 1.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net traded deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2019 and deducted 0.5 percentage points in IIQ2019. Net trade added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points in IVQ2019. The Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)) measures contributions of domestic demand to GDP growth in IVQ2019 (https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/02/PE20_056_811.html). Final consumption expenditure contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2019 and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) contributed 0.0 percentage points. Gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment deducted 0.1 percentage points and gross fixed capital formation in construction contributed 0.1 percentage points. The Federal Statistical Office of Germany released preliminary results for IVQ2019 on Feb 25, 2019, stating (https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/02/PE20_056_811.html): “Compared with the previous quarter, there were mixed signals regarding domestic demand (after price, seasonal and calendar adjustment). Growth of domestic final consumption expenditure, which had often been the main economic driving force lately, slowed markedly after a very strong third quarter. Household final consumption expenditure stagnated in the fourth quarter of 2019 (0.0%) and general government final consumption expenditure rose only slightly by 0.3%. Trends diverged for fixed capital formation. While gross fixed capital formation in construction increased by 0.6% on the third quarter, which was due also to the mild weather, capital formation in machinery and equipment again decreased considerably (-2.0%). Capital formation in other fixed assets was up 1.1% on a quarter earlier.
The development of foreign trade slowed down the economic activity in the fourth quarter. According to provisional calculations, exports were down 0.2% on the third quarter after price, seasonal and calendar adjustment. While exports of services were slightly higher than in the previous quarter (+0.4%), exports of goods decreased by 0.4%. Imports of goods and services, however, rose by 1.3%.”

Table VE-1, Germany Quarter GDP ∆% Relative to Prior Quarter, Seasonally and Calendar Adjusted

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IV
2019	0.5	-0.2	0.2	0.0
2018	0.1	0.4	-0.1	0.2
2017	1.2	0.6	0.9	0.7
2016	0.8	0.6	0.2	0.4
2015	-0.2	0.6	0.5	0.4
2014	1.0	0.0	0.5	0.9
2013	-0.5	1.1	0.5	0.3
2012	0.2	0.2	0.3	-0.4
2011	1.9	0.1	0.9	-0.3
2010	0.8	2.2	0.8	0.8
2009	-4.7	0.1	0.6	0.7
2008	0.7	-0.3	-0.6	-1.6
2007	0.1	0.8	0.5	0.6
2006	1.0	1.7	0.8	1.5
2005	0.0	0.6	0.8	0.5
2004	-0.2	0.5	-0.2	-0.1
2003	-1.5	0.1	0.8	0.3
2002	-0.5	0.4	0.5	-0.2
2001	2.0	0.0	-0.2	-0.1
2000	1.4	0.8	0.0	-0.3
1999	1.2	0.0	1.1	0.8

Seasonal and calendar adjusted Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/02/PE20_056_811.html

Table VE-2 provides percentage changes of Germany’s GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Growth was weak in the recovery from the recession of 2001 through 2005, as in most of the euro area (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 116-46). Germany’s economy then grew robustly in 2006 and 2007 until the global recession after 2007. Germany recovered with robust growth in 2010 and vigorous 6.4 percent in IQ2011 relative to a year earlier. The economy decelerated in the final three quarters of 2011, growing 1.5 percent in IQ2012 relative to IQ2011. Growth decelerated further to 0.4 percent in IIQ2012 without calendar adjustment and 0.9 percent with calendar adjustment and to minus 0.1 percent in IIIQ2012. Growth in IVQ2012 relative to IVQ2011 was minus 0.1 percent. The GDP of Germany increased 0.2 percent in IQ2012 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier but 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier when adjusted for calendar effects (CA). In IIIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IVQ2012 and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, Germany’s GDP decreased 0.5 percent and fell 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 1.1 percent and grew 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2013 and grew 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 1.0 percent in IQ2014 and grew 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Germany’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.9 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany decreased 0.2 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2015 and grew 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2015 and grew 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2015 and grew 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, the GDP of Germany increased 0.8 percent and grew 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 3.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of Germany increased 0.2 percent and grew 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2016 and grew 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, the GDP of Germany increased 1.2 percent and grew 3.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2017 and grew 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier and 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier adjusting for calendar effects (CA). In IIIQ2017, the GDP of Germany increased 0.9 percent and increased 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier and 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2017, 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier and 3.4 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany increased 0.1 percent in IQ2018 and grew 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier and 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2018, 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier and 2.1 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany decreased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2018, increasing 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier and 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP changed 0.2 percent in IVQ2018, increasing 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier and 0.6 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany increased 0.5 percent in IQ2019, increasing 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier and increasing 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP contracted 0.2 percent in IIQ2019, decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier and increased 0.3 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2019, increasing 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier and increasing 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2019, increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier (CA).

Table VE-2, Germany, Quarter GDP ∆% Relative to Same Quarter a Year Earlier, Price Adjusted NCSA

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IV
2019	0.9	-0.1	1.1	0.3
2018	1.6	2.5	1.1	0.9
2017	3.6	1.0	2.5	2.8
2016	2.0	3.7	1.9	1.4
2015	1.3	1.8	1.8	2.1
2014	3.2	1.4	1.8	2.4
2013	-1.5	0.8	1.2	1.2
2012	1.5	0.4	-0.1	-0.1
2011	6.4	3.8	3.7	2.0
2010	2.5	4.8	4.7	4.7
2009	-6.7	-7.9	-5.5	-2.7
2008	2.0	2.9	1.0	-1.9
2007	4.0	3.1	2.9	1.9
2006	4.3	2.7	3.5	4.7
2005	-0.7	1.1	1.2	1.2
2004	1.7	1.9	0.4	0.8
2003	-0.5	-1.4	-0.8	-0.2
2002	-1.7	0.0	0.8	0.0
2001	2.2	1.6	1.4	1.5
2000	4.2	3.9	2.5	1.0
1999	0.9	1.7	1.8	3.1

Price adjusted NSA Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/02/PE20_056_811.html

There are strong calendar effects in economic activity in Germany. Table VE-3 provides Germany’s percentage change in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier adjusting for price changes and calendar effects.

Table VE-3, Germany, Quarter GDP ∆% Relative to Same Quarter a Year Earlier, Calendar and Price Adjusted NSA

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IV

2019	1.0	0.3	0.6	0.4
2018	2.3	2.1	1.1	0.6
2017	2.4	2.3	3.0	3.4
2016	2.4	2.3	2.0	1.9
2015	1.2	1.8	1.7	1.3
2014	3.0	1.8	1.8	2.3
2013	-0.3	0.4	0.7	1.4
2012	1.0	0.9	0.4	0.2
2011	6.1	3.7	3.8	2.5
2010	2.4	4.4	4.7	4.7

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/02/PE20_056_811.html

Table VE-4 provides yearly growth rates of the German economy from 1971 to 2019, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked (https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2019/11/PE19_448_811.html). Germany’s GDP fell 5.7 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.1 percent in 2008. Recovery had been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.2 percent in 2010, 3.9 percent in 2011 and 0.4 percent in 2012. Growth stabilized to 0.4 percent in 2013, increasing to 2.2 percent in 2014. The German economy grew at 1.7 percent in 2015 and grew at 2.2 percent in 2016. Germany’s GDP increased 2.5 percent in 2017 and increased 1.5 percent in 2018. The German economy grew at 0.6 percent in 2019.

Table VE-4, Germany, GDP ∆% on Prior Year

	Price Adjusted Chain-Linked	Price- and Calendar-Adjusted Chain Linked
Average ∆% 1991-2019	1.4
Average ∆% 1991-2018	1.4
Average ∆% 1991-1999	1.4
Average ∆% 2000-2007	1.3
Average ∆% 2003-2007	2.2
Average ∆% 2007-2019	1.2
Average ∆% 2009-2018	2.1
2019	0.6	0.6
2018	1.5	1.5
2017	2.5	2.8
2016	2.2	2.1
2015	1.7	1.5
2014	2.2	2.2
2013	0.4	0.5
2012	0.4	0.6
2011	3.9	4.0
2010	4.2	4.0
2009	-5.7	-5.6
2008	1.0	0.7
2007	3.0	3.1
2006	3.8	4.0
2005	0.7	0.9
2004	1.2	0.7
2003	-0.7	-0.7
2002	-0.2	-0.2
2001	1.7	1.8
2000	2.9	3.1
1999	1.9	1.7
1998	2.0	1.8
1997	1.8	1.9
1996	0.8	0.8
1995	1.5	1.6
1994	2.4	2.5
1993	-1.0	-1.0
1992	1.9	1.5
1991	5.1	5.2
1990	5.3	5.5
1989	3.9	4.0
1988	3.7	3.4
1987	1.4	1.3
1986	2.3	2.3
1985	2.3	2.6
1984	2.8	2.9
1983	1.6	1.5
1982	-0.4	-0.5
1981	0.5	0.6
1980	1.4	1.3
1979	4.2	4.3
1978	3.0	3.1
1977	3.3	3.5
1976	4.9	4.5
1975	-0.9	-0.9
1974	0.9	1.0
1973	4.8	5.0
1972	4.3	4.3
1971	3.1	3.0
1970	NA	NA

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/02/PE20_056_811.html

The quarterly contributions of net trade or trade balance, exports and imports to GDP growth in Germany are in Table VE-5. There have been wide fluctuations in the contribution of net trade to Germany’s GDP growth. Net trade contributed 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017, deducting 0.2 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.5 percentage points in IIIQ2017, adding 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018 and deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2019 and deducted 0.5 percentage points in IIQ2019. Net trade contributed 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2019 and deducted 0.6 percentage points in IVQ2019.

Table VE-5, Germany, Contributions of Trade Balance, Exports and Imports to GDP Growth, Percent

		Net Trade	Exports	Imports
2014	Q1	– 0.1	0.1	0.4
	Q2	– 0.3	0.8	1.6
	Q3	0.7	2.0	0.6
	Q4	0.1	2.0	1.9
2015	Q1	– 0.4	0.8	1.9
	Q2	0.6	1.9	0.6
	Q3	– 0.4	0.1	1.0
	Q4	– 0.6	– 0.3	1.0
2016	Q1	– 0.4	0.8	1.9
	Q2	0.7	1.2	– 0.2
	Q3	– 0.2	– 0.1	0.5
	Q4	– 0.7	1.0	2.8
2017	Q1	0.7	2.1	0.8
	Q2	– 0.2	1.7	2.6
	Q3	0.5	1.1	0.1
	Q4	0.1	1.8	2.0
2018	Q1	0.1	– 0.2	– 0.4
	Q2	– 0.2	0.8	1.5
	Q3	– 1.0	– 0.9	1.3
	Q4	– 0.2	0.2	0.6
2019	Q1	0.5	1.6	0.5
	Q2	– 0.5	– 1.3	– 0.3
	Q3	0.6	1.0	– 0.4
	Q4	– 0.6	– 0.2	1.3

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/02/PE20_056_811.html

Chart VE-1 of the Statistiches Bundesamt (Destatis) shows growth of Germany GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Growth is slowing in the final segment.

Chart VE-1, Germany, GDP Percentage Change on the Quarter and on the Same Quarter a Year Earlier

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/02/PE20_056_811.html

Chart GDP of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis provides the rates of growth of GDP at SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the 16 quarters from IVQ2015 to IVQ2019. Growth has been fluctuating.

Chart GDP, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Rates of Growth of United States GDP, ∆%

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Germany’s labor market continues to show strength not found in most of the advanced economies, as shown in Table VE-1A. The number unemployed, not seasonally adjusted, increased from 1.48 million in Jan 2019 to 1.49 million in Jan 2020, or 0.7 percent, while the unemployment rate did not change from 3.4 percent in Jan 2019 to 3.4 percent in Jan 2020. The number of persons in employment, not seasonally adjusted, increased from 42.03 million in Jan 2019 to 42.50 million in Jan 2020, or 1.1 percent, while the employment rate increased from 67.7 percent in Jan 2019 to 68.3 percent in Jan 2020. The number unemployed, seasonally adjusted, did not change from 1.41 million in Dec 2019 to 1.41 million in Jan 2020, while the unemployment rate did not change from 3.2 percent in Dec 2019 to 3.2 percent in Jan 2020. The number of persons in employment, seasonally adjusted did not change significantly from 42.36 million in Dec 2019 to 42.43 million in Jan 2020, or 0.2 percent. The employment rate seasonally did not change from 68.2 in Dec 2019 to 68.2 in Jan 2020.

Table VE-1A, Germany, Unemployment Labor Force Survey

	Jan 2020	Dec 2019	Jan 2019
NSA
Number Unemployed Millions	1.49 ∆% Jan 2020 /Dec 2019: 6.4 ∆% Jan 2020/Jan 2019: 0.7	1.40	1.48
% Rate Unemployed	3.4	3.2	3.4
Persons in Employment Millions	42.50 ∆% Jan 2020/ Dec 2019: -0.2 ∆% Jan 2020/ Jan 2019: 1.1	42.57	42.03
Employment Rate	68.3	68.6	67.7
SA
Number Unemployed Millions	1.41 ∆% Jan 2020/Dec 2019: 0.0 ∆% Jan 2020/Jan 2019: 0.7	1.41	1.40
% Rate Unemployed	3.2	3.2	3.2
Persons in Employment Millions	42.43 ∆% Jan 2020/Dec 2019: 0.2 ∆% Jan 2020/Jan 2019: 1.2	42.36	41.92
Employment Rate	68.2	68.2	67.6

NSA: not seasonally adjusted; SA: seasonally adjusted

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/02/PE20_066_132.html

Table VE-2A provides the unemployment rate in Germany, seasonally adjusted (SA) but not calendar adjusted (NCA), available in the data bank of EUROSTAT. There is significant decrease from 10.7 percent in Dec 2005 to 3.2 percent in Jan 2020.

Table VE-2A, Germany, Unemployment Rate in Percent of Labor Force, SA NCA, Eurostat Data Bank

Jan 2020	3.2
Dec 2019	3.2
Nov	3.2
Oct	3.2
Sep	3.2
Aug	3.1
Jul	3.1
Jun	3.1
May	3.1
Apr	3.2
Mar	3.2
Feb	3.2
Jan	3.2
Dec 2018	3.3
Nov	3.3
Oct	3.3
Sep	3.4
Aug	3.4
Jul	3.4
Jun	3.4
May	3.4
Apr	3.4
Mar	3.5
Feb	3.5
Jan	3.5
Dec 2017	3.6
Nov	3.6
Oct	3.6
Sep	3.7
Aug	3.7
Jul	3.8
Jun	3.8
May	3.8
Apr	3.8
Mar	3.9
Feb	3.9
Jan	3.9
Dec 2016	3.9
Nov	3.9
Oct	4.0
Sep	4.0
Aug	4.1
Jul	4.2
Jun	4.2
May	4.3
Apr	4.3
Mar	4.3
Feb	4.3
Jan	4.4
Dec 2015	4.4
Nov	4.5
Oct	4.5
Sep	4.5
Aug	4.6
Jul	4.6
Jun	4.7
May	4.7
Apr	4.7
Mar	4.7
Feb	4.8
Jan	4.8
Dec 2014	4.9
Nov	4.9
Oct	5.0
Sep	5.0
Aug	5.0
Jul	5.0
Jun	5.0
May	5.0
Apr	5.0
Mar	5.1
Feb	5.1
Jan	5.1
Dec 2013	5.1
Nov	5.1
Oct	5.1
Sep	5.2
Aug	5.2
Jul	5.2
Jun	5.2
May	5.3
Apr	5.3
Mar	5.4
Feb	5.4
Jan	5.4
Dec 2012	5.3
Nov	5.3
Oct	5.3
Sep	5.3
Aug	5.3
Jul	5.4
Jun	5.4
May	5.4
Apr	5.4
Mar	5.4
Feb	5.4
Jan	5.5
Dec 2011	5.5
Nov	5.6
Oct	5.6
Sep	5.7
Aug	5.7
Jul	5.8
Jun	5.8
May	5.9
Apr	6.0
Mar	6.1
Feb	6.2
Jan	6.4
Dec 2010	6.5
Dec 2009	7.5
Dec 2008	7.2
Dec 2007	8.1
Dec 2006	9.4
Dec 2005	10.7

Source: Source: EUROSTAT

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

The unemployment rate in Germany as percent of the labor force in Table VE-2A stood at 6.5 percent in Sep, Oct and Nov 2012, increasing to 6.7 percent in Dec 2012, 7.4 percent in Jan 2013, 7.3 in Mar 2013 and 7.1 percent in Apr 2013. The unemployment rate fell to 6.8 percent in May 2013 and 6.6 percent in Jun 2013 and rose to 6.8 percent in Jul-Aug 2013. The rate fell to 6.6 percent in Sep 2013 and 6.5 percent in Oct 2013 and Nov 2013. The unemployment rate increased to 6.7 percent in Dec 2013 and 7.3 percent in Jan 2013. The unemployment rate reached 7.3 percent in Feb 2014 and 7.1 percent in Mar 2014. The unemployment rate fell to 6.8 percent in Apr 2014 and 6.6 percent in May 2014. The unemployment rate fell to 6.5 percent in Jun 2014, increasing to 6.6 percent in Jun 2014 and 6.7 percent in Aug 2014. The unemployment rate fell to 6.5 percent in Sep 2014 and 6.3 percent in Oct 2014 and Nov 2014. The unemployment rate increased to 6.4 percent in Dec 2014 and 7.0 percent in Jan 2015, falling to 6.9 percent in Feb 2015 and 6.5 percent in Apr 2015. The unemployment rate fell to 6.3 percent in May 2015 and 6.2 percent in Jun 2015. The unemployment rate increased to 6.3 percent in Jul 2015 and 6.4 percent in Aug 2015. The unemployment rate fell from 6.4 percent in Aug 2015 to 6.1 percent in Dec 2015, increasing to 6.7 percent in Jan 2016. The unemployment rate fell to 6.6 percent in Feb 2016 and 6.5 percent in Mar 2016. The unemployment rate fell to 6.3 percent in Apr 2016, decreasing to 6.0 percent in May 2016. The unemployment rate fell to 5.9 percent in Jun 2016, increasing to 6.0 percent in Jul 2016. The unemployment rate increased to 6.1 percent in Aug 2016, moving to 6.1 percent in Aug 2016 and 5.9 percent in Sep 2016. The rate decreased to 5.7 percent in Nov 2016, increasing to 5.8 in Dec 2016 and 6.3 percent in Jan 2017. The rate stabilized at 6.3 percent in Feb 2017. The unemployment rate fell to 6.0 percent in Mar 2017 and fell to 5.8 percent in Apr 2017. The unemployment rate fell to 5.6 percent in May 2017 and fell to 5.5 percent in Jun 2017, decreasing to 5.5 percent in Sep 2017. The unemployment rate increased to 5.6 percent in Jul 2017, increasing to 5.7 percent in Aug 2017. The unemployment rate decreased to 5.5 percent in Sep 2017 decreasing to 5.4 percent in Oct 2017 and to 5.3 percent in Nov 2017. The unemployment rate stabilized at 5.3 percent in Dec 2017, increasing to 5.8 in Jan 2018. The unemployment rate fell to 5.7 percent in Feb 2018, decreasing to 5.5 percent in Mar 2018. The unemployment rate fell to 5.3 percent in Apr 2018, decreasing to 5.1 percent in May 2018. The unemployment rate fell to 5.0 percent in Jun 2018. The unemployment rate increased to 5.1 percent in Jul 2018, increasing to 5.2 percent in Aug 2018. The unemployment rate decreased to 5.0 percent in Sep 2018. The unemployment decreased to 4.9 percent in Oct 2018. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.8 percent in Nov 2018, increasing to 4.9 percent in Dec 2018. The unemployment rate increased to 5.3 percent in Jan 2019 and stabilized at 5.3 percent in Feb 2019. The rate is much lower than 11.1 percent in 2005 and 9.6 percent in 2006.

Table VE-2A, Germany, Unemployment Rate in Percent of Labor Force

Feb 2019	5.3
Jan	5.3
Dec 2018	4.9
Nov	4.8
Oct	4.9
Sep	5.0
Aug	5.2
Jul	5.1
Jun	5.0
May	5.1
Apr	5.3
Mar	5.5
Feb	5.7
Jan	5.8
Dec 2017	5.3
Nov	5.3
Oct	5.4
Sep	5.5
Aug	5.7
Jul	5.6
Jun	5.5
May	5.6
Apr	5.8
Mar	6.0
Feb	6.3
Jan	6.3
Dec 2016	5.8
Nov	5.7
Oct	5.8
Sep	5.9
Aug	6.1
Jul	6.0
Jun	5.9
May	6.0
Apr	6.3
Mar	6.5
Feb	6.6
Jan	6.7
Dec 2015	6.1
Nov	6.0
Oct	6.0
Sep	6.2
Aug	6.4
Jul	6.3
Jun	6.2
May	6.3
Apr	6.5
Mar	6.8
Feb	6.9
Jan	7.0
Dec 2014	6.4
Nov	6.3
Oct	6.3
Sep	6.5
Aug	6.7
Jul	6.6
Jun	6.5
May	6.6
Apr	6.8
Mar	7.1
Feb	7.3
Jan	7.3
Dec 2013	6.7
Nov	6.5
Oct	6.5
Sep	6.6
Aug	6.8
Jul	6.8
Jun	6.6
May	6.8
Apr	7.1
Mar	7.3
Feb	7.4
Jan	7.4
Dec 2012	6.7
Nov	6.5
Oct	6.5
Sep	6.5
Aug	6.8
Jul	6.8
Jun	6.6
May	6.7
Apr	7.0
Mar	7.2
Feb	7.4
Jan	7.3
Dec 2011	6.6
Nov	6.4
Oct	6.5
Sep	6.6
Aug	7.0
Jul	7.0
Jun	6.9
May	7.0
Apr	7.3
Mar	7.6
Feb	7.9
Jan	7.9
Dec 2010	7.1
Dec 2009	7.8
Dec 2008	7.4
Dec 2007	8.1
Dec 2006	9.6
Dec 2005	11.1

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

Chart VE-1A shows the long-term decline of the rate of unemployment in Germany from more than 12 percent in early 2005 to 6.6 percent in Dec 2011, increasing to 6.7 percent in Dec 2012, 6.8 percent in Apr 2013 and 6.6 percent in May 2013. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 6.8 percent in Aug 2013, falling to 6.6 percent in Sep 2013 and 6.5 percent in Oct 2013. The rate remained at 6.5 percent in Nov 2013, increasing to 6.7 percent in Dec 2013 and 7.3 in Jan 2014. The rate remained at 7.3 percent in Feb 2014, declining to 7.1 percent in Mar 2014. The rate fell to 6.8 percent in Apr 2014, 6.6 percent in May 2014 and 6.5 percent in Jun 2014. The rate increased to 6.6 percent in Jul 2014 and 6.7 percent in Aug 2014, falling to 6.5 percent in Sep 2014. The rate fell to 6.3 percent in Oct 2014 and 6.3 percent in Nov 2014, increasing to 6.4 percent in Dec 2014. The rate increased to 7.0 percent in Jan 2015, falling to 6.9 percent in Feb 2015 and 6.8 percent in Mar 2015. The unemployment rate fell to 6.5 percent in Apr 2015 and 6.3 percent in May 2015. The unemployment rate fell to 6.2 percent in Jun 2015, increasing to 6.3 percent in Jul 2015 and 6.4 percent in Aug 2015. The unemployment rate fell to 6.2 percent in Sep 2015 and 6.0 percent in Oct 2015. The unemployment rate stabilized at 6.0 percent in Nov 2015, increasing to 6.1 percent in Dec 2015. The unemployment rate increased to 6.7 percent in Jan 2016 and fell to 6.6 percent in Feb 2016 and 6.5 percent in Mar 2016. The unemployment rate fell to 6.3 percent in Apr 2016, decreasing to 6.0 percent in May 2016 and 5.9 percent in Jun 2016. The unemployment rate increased to 6.0 percent in Jul 2016 and 6.1 percent in Aug 2016. The unemployment rate fell to 5.9 percent in Sep 2016, 5.8 percent in Oct 2016 and 5.7 percent in Nov 2016. The unemployment rate increased to 5.8 percent in Dec 2016 and 6.3 percent in Jan and Feb 2017. The unemployment rate decreased to 6.0 percent in Mar 2017 and decreased to 5.8 percent in Apr 2017. The unemployment rate fell to 5.6 percent in May 2017 and fell to 5.5 percent in Jun 2017, increasing to 5.6 percent in Jul 2017. The rate of unemployment increased to 5.7 percent in Aug 2017, decreasing to 5.5 percent in Sep 2017. The rate of unemployment decreased to 5.4 percent in Oct 2017, decreasing to 5.3 percent in Nov 2017 and 5.3 percent in Dec 2017. The rate of unemployment increased to 5.8 in Jan 2018, decreasing to 5.7 in Feb 2018. The rate of unemployment fell to 5.5 percent in Mar 2018, decreasing to 5.3 percent in Apr 2018 and decreasing to 5.1 percent in May 2018. The unemployment rate fell to 5.0 percent in Jun 2018, increasing to 5.1 percent in Jul 2018. The unemployment rate increased to 5.2 percent in Aug 2018, decreasing to 5.0 percent in Sep 2018. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.9 percent in Oct 2018, decreasing to 4.8 percent in Nov 2018. The unemployment rate increased to 4.9 percent in Dec 2018, increasing to 5.3 percent in Jan 2019. The unemployment rate stabilized at 5.3 percent in Jan-Feb 2019.

Chart VE-1A, Germany, Unemployment Rate, Unadjusted, Percent

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

VF France. Table VF-FR provides growth rates of GDP of France with the estimates of Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE). The long-term rate of GDP growth of France from IVQ1949 to IVQ2019 is quite high at 3.1 percent. France’s growth rates were quite high in the four decades of the 1950s, 1960, 1970s and 1980s with an average growth rate of 4.0 percent compounding the average rates in the decades and discounting to one decade. The growth impulse diminished with 2.0 percent in the 1990s and 1.8 percent from 2000 to 2007. The average growth rate from 2000 to 2019, using fourth quarter data, is 1.2 percent because of the sharp impact of the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. Cobet and Wilson (2002) provide estimates of output per hour and unit labor costs in national currency and US dollars for the US, Japan and Germany from 1950 to 2000 (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 137-44). The average yearly rate of productivity change from 1950 to 2000 was 2.9 percent in the US, 6.3 percent for Japan and 4.7 percent for Germany while unit labor costs in USD increased at 2.6 percent in the US, 4.7 percent in Japan and 4.3 percent in Germany. From 1995 to 2000, output per hour increased at the average yearly rate of 4.6 percent in the US, 3.9 percent in Japan and 2.6 percent in Germany while unit labor costs in US fell at minus 0.7 percent in the US, 4.3 percent in Japan and 7.5 percent in Germany. There was increase in productivity growth in the G7 in Japan and France in the second half of the 1990s but significantly lower than the acceleration of 1.3 percentage points per year in the US. Lucas (2011May) compares growth of the G7 economies (US, UK, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Canada) and Spain, finding that catch-up growth with earlier rates for the US and UK stalled in the 1970s.

Table VF-FR, France, Average Growth Rates of GDP Fourth Quarter, 1949-2018

Period	Average ∆%
1949-2019	3.1
2007-2019*****	0.9
2007-2018****	0.9
2007-2017***	0.8
2007-2016**	0.6
2007-2015*	0.5
2007-2014	0.4
2000-2019	1.2
2000-2018	1.2
2000-2017	1.2
2000-2016	1.1
2000-2015	1.1
2000-2014	1.1
2000-2007	1.8
1990-1999	2.0
1980-1989	2.7
1970-1979	3.7
1960-1969	5.7
1950-1959	4.2

*IVQ2007 to IVQ2015 **IVQ2007 to IVQ2016 ***IVQ2007 to IVQ2017 ****IVQ2007 to IVQ2018 *****IVQ2007 to IVQ2019

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

https://www.insee.fr/fr/information/2411675#arbo:montrerbranches=theme312

The IHS Markit Flash France Composite Output Index increased from 51.1 in Jan to 51.9 in Feb (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/256d4721c6dc455fa56b51a56559d002). Eliot Kerr, Economist at IHS Markit, finds mixed growth conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/256d4721c6dc455fa56b51a56559d002). The IHS Markit France Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing with close association with French GDP, increased from 51.1 in Jan to 52.0 in Feb, indicating expanding activity of the private sector (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/b434a085fabe4877a636132f4fd3bb73). Eliot Kerr, Economist at IHS Markit that compiles the France Services PMI^®, finds continuing activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/b434a085fabe4877a636132f4fd3bb73). The IHS Markit France Services Activity index increased from 51.0 in Jan to 52.5 in Feb (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/b434a085fabe4877a636132f4fd3bb73). The IHS Markit France Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^® decreased to 49.8 in Feb from 51.1 in Jan (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/8df81861a32042948a8c6d42760d839c). Eliot Kerr, Economist at IHS Markit, finds slowing manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/8df81861a32042948a8c6d42760d839c). Table FR provides the country data table for France.

Table FR, France, Economic Indicators

CPI	Jan month ∆% -0.4 12 months ∆%: 1.5 2/23/20
PPI	Jan month ∆%: -0.1 Jan 12 months ∆%: 0.2 Blog 3/8/20
GDP Growth	IVQ2019/IIIQ2019 ∆%: -0.1 IVQ2019/IVQ2018 ∆%: 0.9 Blog 3/31/13 5/19/12 6/30/13 9/29/13 11/17/13 12/29/13 2/16/14 4/6/14 5/18/14 6/29/14 8/17/14 9/28/14 11/16/14 12/28/14 2/15/15 3/29/15 5/17/15 6/28/15 8/16/15 9/27/15 11/15/15 12/27/15 1/31/16 2/28/16 3/27/16 5/1/16 6/5/16 06/26/16 8/7/16 9/4/16 9/25/16 10/30/16 12/4/16 1/1/17 2/12/17 3/5/17 3/26/17 5/7/17 6/4/17 6/25/17 8/20/17 9/3/17 11/12/17 12/10/17 12/31/17 2/11/18 3/4/18 4/1/18 5/6/18 6/3/18 6/24/18 9/2/18 11/11/18 12/9/18 12/30/18 3/10/19 3/31/19 5/5/19 6/2/19 8/11/19 9/8/19 11/3/19 3/8/20
Industrial Production	Manufacturing Dec -2.6 Quarter ∆%: -0.4 YOY -0.7 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Consumer Spending	Engineered Goods Jan ∆%: -2.7 12-Month Engineered Goods ∆%: 0.4 Earlier Data: Blog 4/5/15
Employment	Unemployment Rate: IVQ2019 7.9% Blog 2/16/20
Trade Balance	Dec Exports ∆%: month -0.6 12 months -2.2 Imports ∆%: month -3.3 12 months -2.4 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Confidence Indicators	Historical average 100 Feb Mfg Business Climate 102 Earlier Data: Blog 3/29/15

Links to blog comments in Table FR: 2/23/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/declining-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

2/16/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/recovery-without-hiring-in-lost.html

2/9/2020 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

1/19/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/01/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

12/29/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/diverging-economic-conditions-and.html

12/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/increase-in-valuations-of-risk_14.html

12/1/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

11/17/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial_16.html

11/3/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/decrease-of-fomc-policy-rate-monetary.html

10/27/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial_26.html

10/20/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/dollar-depreciation-fluctuating.html

9/29/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/dollar-appreciation-decreasing.html

9/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/competitive-exchange-rate-and-interest.html

9/8/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/increase-in-valuations-of-risk.html

8/18/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/global-decline-of-yields-of-government.html

8/11/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/competitive-exchange-rate-policies.html

7/28/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/dollar-appreciation-in-anticipations-of.html

7/14/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/fomc-uncertain-outlook-frank-h-knights.html

6/30/2019 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/06/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

6/2/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/06/contraction-of-risk-financial-assets.html

5/5/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

3/31/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/03/inverted-yield-curve-of-treasury_30.html

12/30/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/12/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

12/9/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/12/fluctuation-of-valuations-of-risk.html

11/11/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/11/oscillation-of-valuations-of-risk.html

9/2/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/09/revision-of-united-states-national.html

8/19/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/08/world-inflation-waves-lost-economic.html

7/29/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/07/revision-of-united-states-national.html

6/24/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

6/3/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/stronger-dollar-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/6/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

04/01/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_31.html

3/4/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

2/11/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/collateral-effects-of-unwinding.html

12/31/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/dollar-devaluation-cyclically.html

12/10/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

11/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/11/the-lost-economic-cycle-of-global_25.html

11/12/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/11/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

9/3/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

8/20/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

6/25/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/united-states-commercial-banks-united.html

6/4/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

5/7/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

3/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

3/5/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

2/12/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

1/1/17 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/rules-versus-discretionary-authorities.html

12/4/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/rising-yields-and-dollar-revaluation.html

10/30/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/10/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_30.html

9/25/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/the-economic-outlook-is-inherently.html

9/4/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/interest-rates-and-valuations-of-risk.html

8/7/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/global-competitive-easing-or.html

6/26/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/of-course-considerable-uncertainty.html

6/5/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/financial-turbulence-twenty-four.html

5/1/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/economic-activity-appears-to-have.html

3/27/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/contraction-of-united-states-corporate.html

2/28/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

1/31/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/closely-monitoring-global-economic-and.html

12/27/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/dollar-revaluation-and-decreasing.html

11/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-policy-conundrum-recovery.html

9/27/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/monetary-policy-designed-on-measurable.html

08/16/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/exchange-rate-and-financial-asset.html

6/28/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/international-valuations-of-financial.html

5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

9/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

12/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/collapse-of-united-states-dynamism-of.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

6/30/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/tapering-quantitative-easing-policy-and.html

5/19/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/word-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

Growth of GDP in a quarter relative to the prior quarter for France is in Table VF-1. GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 and changed 0.0 percent in IQ2013, rebounding with growth of 0.7 percent in IIQ2013. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2013. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2014. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2014. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2014. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2015 and changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2015. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2015. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2016. GDP decreased 0.3 percent in IIQ2016. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 0.6 percent in IVQ2016. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IQ2017 and increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2017. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIIQ2017. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2017. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2018. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2018. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2018. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2018. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2019. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2019. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2019. GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2019. The French economy grew 0.3 percent in IVQ2011, increasing 0.1 percent in IQ2012, contracting 0.2 percent in IIQ2012 and growing 0.2 percent in IIIQ2012. In the four quarters of 2012 and the first quarter of 2013, France’s GDP contracted in two quarters and stagnated in one quarter. Growth in the ten quarters of expansion from IIIQ2009 to IVQ2011 accumulated 4.8 percent at the annual equivalent rate of 1.9 percent. Recovery has been much weaker than the cumulative 2.6 percent in the four quarters of 2006. The GDP of France contracted 3.9 percent from the pre-recession peak in IQ2008 at €525,549 million SA-WDA (seasonally adjusted working day adjusted volumes chained at previous year prices) to the trough in IIQ2009 at €505,129 million SA-WDA. The GDP of France increased 10.4 percent from the pre-recession peak in IQ2008 at €525,549 million SA-WDA to €580,274 million SA-WDA in IVQ2019 at the annual equivalent rate of 0.8 percent. French GDP increased 14.9 percent from €505,129 million SA-WDA in IIQ2009 to €580,274 million SA-WDA in IVQ2019 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.3 percent. French GDP in IVQ2019 is 10.5 percent below trend at average 1.8 percent from 2000 to 2007. Weak recoveries in advanced economies have prevented full utilization of labor, capital and productive resources.

Table VF-1, France, Quarterly Real GDP Growth, Quarter on Prior Quarter ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IVQ
2019	0.3	0.4	0.3	-0.1
2018	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.5
2017	0.8	0.7	0.7	0.8
2016	0.6	-0.3	0.2	0.6
2015	0.4	0.0	0.4	0.2
2014	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.1
2013	0.0	0.7	0.0	0.5
2012	0.1	-0.2	0.2	-0.1
2011	1.0	0.1	0.2	0.3
2010	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.7
2009	-1.6	-0.1	0.2	0.7
2008	0.5	-0.4	-0.3	-1.4
2007	0.8	0.8	0.3	0.2
2006	0.8	1.0	0.0	0.8
2005	0.2	0.2	0.5	0.7
2004	0.9	0.7	0.3	0.7
2003	0.1	-0.2	0.7	0.8
2002	0.3	0.5	0.3	0.1
2001	0.5	0.1	0.4	0.0
2000	0.9	0.9	0.6	0.8
1999	0.5	0.8	1.2	1.4

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

https://www.insee.fr/fr/information/2411675#arbo:montrerbranches=theme312

Table VF-2, France, Real GDP Growth Current Quarter Relative to Same Quarter Year Earlier ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IVQ
2019	1.3	1.5	1.5	0.9
2018	2.4	1.9	1.5	1.2
2017	1.4	2.4	2.8	3.0
2016	1.2	1.0	0.8	1.2
2015	1.2	1.0	0.9	1.0
2014	1.2	0.7	1.2	0.8
2013	-0.1	0.8	0.6	1.1
2012	0.6	0.4	0.4	0.0
2011	2.9	2.4	2.1	1.6
2010	1.2	1.8	2.2	2.2
2009	-3.8	-3.5	-3.0	-0.9
2008	1.8	0.6	-0.1	-1.7
2007	2.6	2.3	2.7	2.1
2006	2.2	3.1	2.6	2.6
2005	2.0	1.5	1.7	1.7
2004	2.1	3.0	2.7	2.6
2003	1.1	0.3	0.6	1.4
2002	0.8	1.2	1.2	1.2
2001	3.0	2.1	1.9	1.1
2000	4.4	4.5	4.0	3.4
1999	2.9	2.9	3.4	4.0

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

https://www.insee.fr/fr/information/2411675#arbo:montrerbranches=theme312

Chart VF-1 provides the GDP of France from IQ1949 to IQ2017. There was substantial drop during the global recession followed by hesitant growth and more recent higher growth. The update is here: https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/serie/010565708#Graphique

Chart VF-1, France, Quarterly Real GDP, Seasonally and Working Day Adjusted, IQ1949-IQ2017

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/3047950

The update is here: https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/serie/010565708#Graphique

Percentage changes and contributions of segments of GDP in France are in Table VF-3. Internal demand added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2019. Internal demand added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2019. Internal demand added 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Internal demand added 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points in IQ2019. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points in IIQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIIQ2019. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2019.

Table VF-3, France, Contributions to GDP Growth, Calendar and Seasonally Adjusted, %

∆% from Prior Period	IQ 2019	IIQ 2019	IIIQ2019	IVQ2019	2018	2019
GDP	0.3	0.4	0.3	-0.1	1.7	1.3
Imports	1.3	-0.2	0.4	-0.4	1.2	2.2
Household Consump.	0.4	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.9	1.2
Govt. Consump.	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.8	1.3
GFCF	0.5	1.4	1.3	0.2	2.8	3.6
General Government	0.8	1.2	1.0	0.0	2.4	3.9
Exports	0.3	-0.2	-0.3	0.0	3.5	1.9
% Point Contribs.
Internal Demand ex Inventory Changes	0.4	0.6	0.7	0.3	1.3	1.8
Inventory Changes	0.3	-0.2	-0.1	-0.5	-0.2	-0.4
Net Foreign Trade	-0.3	0.0	-0.2	0.1	0.7	-0.1

Notes: Consump.: Consumption; Gvt.: Government; GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation; Contribus.: Contributions; OVHG: “annual growth rate carried over at the mid-year point.”

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques