Sunday, January 12, 2020

Increasing Valuations of Risk Financial Assets, Real Disposable Income and Consumption Expenditures, Prices of Personal Consumption Expenditures, Cyclically Stagnating Real Disposable Income Per Capita, Financial Repression, Destruction of Household Nonfinancial Wealth with Stagnating Total Real Wealth in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth Underperforming Below Trend Worldwide, World Cyclical Slow Growth, Government Intervention in Globalization, and Global Recession Risk: Part V


Increasing Valuations of Risk Financial Assets, Real Disposable Income and Consumption Expenditures, Prices of Personal Consumption Expenditures, Cyclically Stagnating Real Disposable Income Per Capita, Financial Repression, Destruction of Household Nonfinancial Wealth with Stagnating Total Real Wealth in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth Underperforming Below Trend Worldwide, World Cyclical Slow Growth, Government Intervention in Globalization, and Global Recession Risk

Carlos M. Pelaez

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

II Stagnating Real Disposable Income and Consumption Expenditures

IIB1 Stagnating Real Disposable Income and Consumption Expenditures

IB2 Financial Repression

IIB Destruction of Household Nonfinancial Wealth with Stagnating Total Real Wealth in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth Underperforming Below Trend Worldwide

III World Financial Turbulence

IV Global Inflation

V World Economic Slowdown

VA United States

VB Japan

VC China

VD Euro Area

VE Germany

VF France

VG Italy

VH United Kingdom

VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets

VII Economic Indicators

VIII Interest Rates

IX Conclusion

References

Appendixes

Appendix I The Great Inflation

IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies

IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact

IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort

IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis

V World Economic Slowdown. Table V-1 is constructed with the database of the IMF (https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2019/02/weodata/index.aspx) to show GDP in dollars in 2018 and the growth rate of real GDP of the world and selected regional countries from 2018 to 2021. The data illustrate the concept often repeated of “two-speed recovery” of the world economy from the recession of 2007 to 2009. The IMF has changed its measurement of the world economy to 3.6 percent in 2018 and reducing the forecast rate of growth to 3.0 percent in 2019, 3.4 percent in 2020 and 3.6 percent in 2021. Slow-speed recovery occurs in the “major advanced economies” of the G7 that account for $38,901 billion of world output of $84,930 billion, or 45.8 percent, but are projected to grow at much lower rates than world output, 1.7 percent on average from 2018 to 2021, in contrast with 3.4 percent for the world as a whole. While the world would grow 14.3 percent in the four years from 2018 to 2021, the G7 as a whole would grow 6.9 percent. The difference in dollars of 2018 is high: growing by 14.3 percent would add around $12.1 trillion of output to the world economy, or roughly, over two times the output of the economy of Japan of $4,972 billion but growing by 6.9 percent would add $5.9 trillion of output to the world, or somewhat higher than the output of Japan in 2018. The “two speed” concept is in reference to the growth of the 150 countries labeled as emerging and developing economies (EMDE) with joint output in 2018 of $33,687 billion, or 39.7 percent of world output. The EMDEs would grow cumulatively 19.0 percent or at the average yearly rate of 4.4 percent, contributing $6.4 trillion from 2018 to 2021 or the equivalent of close to one half the GDP of $13,368 billion of China in 2018. The final four countries in Table I-1 often referred as BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China), are large, rapidly growing emerging economies. Their combined output in 2018 adds to $19,613 billion, or 23.1 percent of world output, which is equivalent to 50.4 percent of the combined output of the major advanced economies of the G7.

Table V-1, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Real GDP Growth

GDP USD Billions 2018

Real GDP ∆%
2018

Real GDP ∆%
2019

Real GDP ∆%
2020

Real GDP ∆%
2021

World

84,930

3.6

3.0

3.4

3.6

G7

38,901

2.1

1.6

1.6

1.4

Canada

1,712

1.9

1.5

1.8

1.8

France

2,780

1.7

1.2

1.3

1.3

DE

3,951

1.5

0.5

1.2

1.4

Italy

2,076

0.9

0.0

0.5

0.8

Japan

4,972

0.8

0.9

0.5

0.5

UK

2,829

1.4

1.2

1.5

1.5

US

20,580

2.9

2.4

2.1

1.7

Euro Area

13,639

1.9

1.2

1.4

1.4

DE

3,951

1.5

0.5

1.2

1.4

France

2,780

1.7

1.2

1.3

1.3

Italy

2,076

0.9

0.0

0.5

0.8

POT

241

2.4

1.9

1.6

1.5

Ireland

383

8.3

4.3

3.5

3.2

Greece

218

1.9

2.0

2.2

1.7

Spain

1,428

2.6

2.2

1.9

1.7

EMDE

33,687

4.5

3.9

4.6

4.8

Brazil

1,868

1.1

0.9

2.0

2.4

Russia

1,658

2.3

1.1

1.9

2.0

India

2,719

6.8

6.1

7.0

7.4

China

13,368

6.6

6.1

5.8

5.9

Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries); POT: Portugal

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook databank

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2019/02/weodata/index.aspx

Continuing high rates of unemployment in advanced economies constitute another characteristic of the database of the WEO (https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2019/02/weodata/index.aspx). Table V-2 is constructed with the WEO database to provide rates of unemployment from 2017 to 2021 for major countries and regions. In fact, unemployment rates for 2017 in Table I-2 are high for all countries: unusually high for countries with high rates most of the time and unusually high for countries with low rates most of the time. The rates of unemployment are particularly high in 2017 for the countries with sovereign debt difficulties in Europe: 8.9 percent for Portugal (POT), 6.7 percent for Ireland, 21.5 percent for Greece, 17.2 percent for Spain and 11.3 percent for Italy, which is lower but still high. The G7 rate of unemployment is 5.0 percent. Unemployment rates are not likely to decrease substantially if relative slow cyclical growth persists in advanced economies.

Table V-2, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Unemployment Rate as Percent of Labor Force

% Labor Force 2017

% Labor Force 2018

% Labor Force 2019

% Labor Force 2020

% Labor Force 2021

World

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

G7

5.0

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.3

Canada

6.3

5.8

5.8

6.0

6.1

France

9.4

9.1

8.6

8.4

8.3

DE

3.8

3.4

3.2

3.3

3.4

Italy

11.3

10.6

10.3

10.3

10.2

Japan

2.8

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.4

UK

4.4

4.1

3.8

3.8

4.0

US

4.4

3.9

3.7

3.5

3.5

Euro Area

9.1

8.2

7.7

7.5

7.3

DE

3.8

3.4

3.2

3.3

3.4

France

9.4

9.1

8.6

8.4

8.3

Italy

11.3

10.6

10.3

10.3

10.2

POT

8.9

7.0

6.1

5.6

5.4

Ireland

6.7

5.8

5.5

5.2

5.1

Greece

21.5

19.3

17.8

16.8

15.7

Spain

17.2

15.3

13.9

13.2

12.7

EMDE

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

Brazil

12.8

12.3

11.8

10.8

10.0

Russia

5.2

4.8

4.6

4.7

4.7

India

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

China

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.8

Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries)

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2019/02/weodata/index.aspx

There are references to adverse periods as “lost decades.” There is a more prolonged and adverse period in Table V-3A: the lost economic cycle of the Global Recession with economic growth underperforming below trend worldwide. Economic contractions were relatively high but not comparable to the decline of GDP during the Great Depression. In fact, during the Great Depression in the four years of 1930 to 1933, US GDP in constant dollars fell 26.3 percent cumulatively and fell 45.3 percent in current dollars (Pelaez and Pelaez, Financial Regulation after the Global Recession (2009a), 150-2, Pelaez and Pelaez, Globalization and the State, Vol. II (2009b), 205-7 and revisions in http://bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). Data are available for the 1930s only on a yearly basis. The contraction of GDP in the current cycle of the Global Recession was much lower, 4.0 percent (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/01/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html). Contractions were deeper in Japan, 8.6 percent, the euro area (19 members), 5.8 percent, Germany 6.9 percent and the UK 6.3 percent. The contraction in France was 3.9 percent. There is adversity in low rates of growth during the expansion that did not compensate for the contraction such that for the whole cycle performance is disappointingly low. As a result, GDP is substantially below what it would have been in trend growth in all countries and regions in the world. Long-term economic performance in the United States consisted of trend growth of GDP at 3 percent per year and of per capita GDP at 2 percent per year as measured for 1870 to 2010 by Robert E Lucas (2011May). The economy returned to trend growth after adverse events such as wars and recessions. The key characteristic of adversities such as recessions was much higher rates of growth in expansion periods that permitted the economy to recover output, income and employment losses that occurred during the contractions. Over the business cycle, the economy compensated the losses of contractions with higher growth in expansions to maintain trend growth of GDP of 3 percent and of GDP per capita of 2 percent. The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. US economic growth has been at only 2.3 percent on average in the cyclical expansion in the 41 quarters from IIIQ2009 to IIIQ2019. Boskin (2010Sep) measures that the US economy grew at 6.2 percent in the first four quarters and 4.5 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the second quarter of 1975; and at 7.7 percent in the first four quarters and 5.8 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the first quarter of 1983 (Professor Michael J. Boskin, Summer of Discontent, Wall Street Journal, Sep 2, 2010 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882304575465462926649950.html). There are new calculations using the revision of US GDP and personal income data since 1929 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (http://bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) and the third estimate of GDP for IIIQ2019 (https://www.bea.gov/system/files/2019-12/gdp3q19_3rd.pdf). The average of 7.7 percent in the first four quarters of major cyclical expansions is in contrast with the rate of growth in the first four quarters of the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010 of only 2.8 percent obtained by dividing GDP of $15,557.3 billion in IIQ2010 by GDP of $15,134.1 billion in IIQ2009 {[($15,557.3/$15,134.1) -1]100 = 2.8%], or accumulating the quarter on quarter growth rates (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/01/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html). The expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1986 was at the average annual growth rate of 5.7 percent, 5.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1986, 5.1 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1986, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1989, 4.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1989, 4.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1989, 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1989. 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1990, 4.4 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1990, 4.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1990, 4.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1990, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ2019, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1993 and at 7.9 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/01/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html). The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dates a contraction of the US from IQ1990 (Jul) to IQ1991 (Mar) (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html). The expansion lasted until another contraction beginning in IQ2001 (Mar). US GDP contracted 1.3 percent from the pre-recession peak of $8983.9 billion of chained 2009 dollars in IIIQ1990 to the trough of $8865.6 billion in IQ1991 (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IIIQ2019 would have accumulated to 41.5 percent. GDP in IIIQ2019 would be $22,303.2 billion (in constant dollars of 2012) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $3182.1 billion than actual $19,121.1 billion. There are more than three trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 18.5 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 10.8 percent of the effective labor force (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/increase-in-valuations-of-risk.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html). US GDP in IIIQ2019 is 14.3 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $15,762.0 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $19,121.1 billion in IIIQ2019 or 21.3 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.7 percent. Professor John H. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. Cochrane (2016May02) measures GDP growth in the US at average 3.5 percent per year from 1950 to 2000 and only at 1.76 percent per year from 2000 to 2015 with only at 2.0 percent annual equivalent in the current expansion. Cochrane (2016May02) proposes drastic changes in regulation and legal obstacles to private economic activity. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 3.0 percent per year from Nov 1919 to Nov 2019. Growth at 3.0 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 154.0282 in Nov 2019. The actual index NSA in Nov 2019 is 104.7173 which is 32.0 percent below trend. Manufacturing grew at the average annual rate of 3.3 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2006. Growth at 3.3 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 159.4601 in Nov 2019. The actual index NSA in Nov 2019 is 104.7173, which is 34.3 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 1.9 percent between Dec 1986 and Nov 2019. Using trend growth of 1.9 percent per year, the index would increase to 135.5290 in Nov 2019. The output of manufacturing at 104.7173 in Nov 2019 is 22.7 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Using the NAICS (North American Industry Classification System), manufacturing output fell from the high of 110.5147 in Jun 2007 to the low of 86.3800 in Apr 2009 or 21.8 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased from 86.3800 in Apr 2009 to 105.8734 in Nov 2019 or 22.6 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased at the annual equivalent rate of 3.5 percent from Dec 1986 to Dec 2006. Growth at 3.5 percent would increase the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 160.7359 in Nov 2019. The NAICS index at 105.8734 in Nov 2019 is 34.1 below trend. The NAICS manufacturing output index grew at 1.7 percent annual equivalent from Dec 1999 to Dec 2006. Growth at 1.7 percent would raise the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 130.4112 in Nov 2019. The NAICS index at 105.8734 in Nov 2019 is 18.8 percent below trend under this alternative calculation.

Table V-3A, Cycle 2007-2019, Percentage Contraction, Average Growth Rate in Expansion, Average Growth Rate in Whole Cycle and GDP Percent Below Trend

Contraction

∆%

Expansion

Average ∆%

Whole Cycle

Average ∆%

Below Trend

Percent

USA

4.0

2.3

1.6

14.3

Japan

8.6

1.5

0.6

NA

Euro Area 19

5.7

1.4

0.7

16.4

France

3.9

1.4

0.9

10.1

Germany

6.9

1.9

1.1

NA

UK

6.0

1.8

1.1

17.6

Note: AV: Average. Expansion and Whole Cycle AV ∆% calculated with quarterly growth, seasonally adjusted and quarterly adjusted when applicable, rates and converted into annual equivalent.

Data reported periodically in this blog.

Source: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.bls.gov/bls/other.htm https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/related-sites.html

Manufacturing is underperforming in the lost cycle of the global recession. Manufacturing (NAICS) in Nov 2019 is lower by 4.2 percent relative to the peak in Jun 2007, as shown in Chart V-3A. Manufacturing (SIC) in Nov 2019 at 104.7173 is lower by 6.8 percent relative to the peak at 112.3113 in Jun 2007. There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 3.0 percent per year from Nov 1919 to Nov 2019. Growth at 3.0 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 154.0282 in Nov 2019. The actual index NSA in Nov 2019 is 104.7173 which is 32.0 percent below trend. Manufacturing grew at the average annual rate of 3.3 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2006. Growth at 3.3 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 159.4601 in Nov 2019. The actual index NSA in Nov 2019 is 104.7173, which is 34.3 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 1.9 percent between Dec 1986 and Nov 2019. Using trend growth of 1.9 percent per year, the index would increase to 135.5290 in Nov 2019. The output of manufacturing at 104.7173 in Nov 2019 is 22.7 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Using the NAICS (North American Industry Classification System), manufacturing output fell from the high of 110.5147 in Jun 2007 to the low of 86.3800 in Apr 2009 or 21.8 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased from 86.3800 in Apr 2009 to 105.8734 in Nov 2019 or 22.6 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased at the annual equivalent rate of 3.5 percent from Dec 1986 to Dec 2006. Growth at 3.5 percent would increase the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 160.7359 in Nov 2019. The NAICS index at 105.8734 in Nov 2019 is 34.1 below trend. The NAICS manufacturing output index grew at 1.7 percent annual equivalent from Dec 1999 to Dec 2006. Growth at 1.7 percent would raise the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 130.4112 in Nov 2019. The NAICS index at 105.8734 in Nov 2019 is 18.8 percent below trend under this alternative calculation.

clip_image001

Chart V-3A, United States Manufacturing NSA, Nov 2007 to Nov 2019

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm

Chart V-3B provides the civilian noninstitutional population of the United States, or those available for work. The civilian noninstitutional population increased from 231.713 million in Jun 2007 to 260.020 million in Nov 2019 or 28.307 million.

clip_image002

Chart V-3B, United States, Civilian Noninstitutional Population, Million, NSA, Jan 2007 to Nov 2019

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/

Chart V-3C provides nonfarm payroll manufacturing jobs in the United States from Jan 2007 to Nov 2019. Nonfarm payroll jobs fell from 13.987 million in Jun 2007 to 12.862 million in Nov 2019, or 1.125 million.

clip_image003

Chart V-3C, United States, Payroll Manufacturing Jobs, NSA, Jan 2007 to Nov 2019, Thousands

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/

Chart V-3D provides the index of US manufacturing (NAICS) from Jan 1972 to Nov 2019. The index continued increasing during the decline of manufacturing jobs after the early 1980s. There are likely effects of changes in the composition of manufacturing with also changes in productivity and trade.

clip_image004

Chart V-3D, United States Manufacturing (NAICS) NSA, Jan 1972 to Nov 2019

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm

Chart V-3E provides the US noninstitutional civilian population, or those in condition of working, from Jan 1948, when first available, to Nov 2019. The noninstitutional civilian population increased from 170.042 million in Jun 1981 to 260.020 million in Nov 2019, or 89.978 million.

clip_image005

Chart V-3E, United States, Civilian Noninstitutional Population, Million, NSA, Jan 1948 to Nov 2019

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/

Chart V-3F provides manufacturing jobs in the United States from Jan 1939 to Nov 2019. Nonfarm payroll manufacturing jobs decreased from a peak of 18.890 million in Jun 1981 to 12.862 million in Nov 2019.

clip_image006

Chart V-3C, United States, Payroll Manufacturing Jobs, NSA, Jan 1939 to Nov 2019, Thousands

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/

There is global stress in manufacturing. Table V-3B provides month and 12-month percentage changes of new orders in manufacturing and output of manufacturing in Germany.

Table V-3B, Germany, Manufacturing Orders and Manufacturing Output, ∆% Month and 12 Months

MFG New Orders

Month ∆%

MFG New Orders

12 Months ∆%

MFG Output

Month ∆%

MFG Output

12 Month ∆%

Nov 2019

-1.6

-9.1

-0.6

-7.4

Oct

-1.6

-5.5

-1.5

-6.0

Sep

1.9

-2.2

0.2

-1.7

Aug

-2.4

-9.3

-1.0

-7.6

Jul

-1.3

-2.2

1.0

-1.2

Jun

3.9

-10.8

-1.3

-14.6

May

-3.1

-3.8

-0.6

1.0

Apr

1.2

-5.2

-0.4

-4.3

Mar

-0.1

-7.0

-2.3

-3.9

Feb

-3.0

-7.1

1.4

-0.2

Jan

-2.0

-3.6

-0.4

-3.8

Dec 2018

1.1

-8.2

0.4

-6.7

Dec 2017

3.9

3.8

0.2

3.7

Dec 2016

6.3

11.2

-0.2

2.0

Source: Federal Statistical Agency of Germany, https://www.destatis.de/EN/Home/_node.html

Table V-3 provides the latest available estimates of GDP for the regions and countries followed in this blog from IQ2012 to IVQ2018 available now for all countries. There are estimates for all countries for IQ2019 and preliminary estimates for IIQ2019 for most countries. There are preliminary estimates for some countries for IIIQ2019. Growth is weak throughout most of the world.

Table V-3, Percentage Changes of GDP Quarter on Prior Quarter and on Same Quarter Year Earlier, ∆%

IQ2012/IVQ2011

IQ2012/IQ2011

USA

QOQ: 0.8       

SAAR: 3.2

2.7

Japan

QOQ: 1.2

SAAR: 4.9

3.1

China

1.9 AE 7.8

8.1

Euro Area

-0.2

-0.5

Germany

0.2

1.5 CA 1.0

France

0.1

0.7

Italy

-1.1

-2.3

United Kingdom

0.6

1.2

IIQ2012/IQ2012

IIQ2012/IIQ2011

USA

QOQ: 0.4        

SAAR: 1.7

2.4

Japan

QOQ: -0.7
SAAR: -2.8

2.9

China

2.1 AE 8.7

7.6

Euro Area

-0.3

-0.8

Germany

0.2

0.4 CA 0.9

France

-0.2

0.4

Italy

-0.8

-3.2

United Kingdom

-0.1

1.1

IIIQ2012/ IIQ2012

IIIQ2012/ IIIQ2011

USA

QOQ: 0.1 
SAAR: 0.5

2.5

Japan

QOQ: –0.4
SAAR: –1.5

-0.1

China

1.8 AE 7.4

7.5

Euro Area

-0.1

-1.0

Germany

0.3

-0.1

France

0.2

0.4

Italy

-0.5

-3.3

United Kingdom

1.2

2.0

IVQ2012/IIIQ2012

IVQ2012/IVQ2011

United States

QOQ: 0.1
SAAR: 0.5

1.5

Japan

QOQ: 0.3

SAAR: 1.0

0.3

China

2.0 AE 8.2

8.1

Euro Area

-0.4

-1.1

Germany

-0.4

-0.1

France

-0.1

0.0

Italy

-0.8

-3.2

United Kingdom

-0.2

1.6

IQ2013/IVQ2012

IQ2013/IQ2012

United States

QOQ: 0.9
SAAR: 3.6

1.6

Japan

QOQ: 1.2

SAAR: 5.0

0.4

China

1.9 AE 7.8

7.9

Euro Area

-0.4

-1.2

Germany

-0.5

-1.5

France

0.0

-0.1

Italy

-0.8

-2.9

UK

0.6

1.6

IIQ2013/IQ2013

IIQ2013/IIQ2012

USA

QOQ: 0.1

SAAR: 0.5

1.3

Japan

QOQ: 0.8

SAAR: 3.2

1.9

China

1.8 AE 7.4

7.6

Euro Area

0.5

-0.4

Germany

1.1

0.8

France

0.7

0.8

Italy

0.0

-2.2

UK

0.5

2.3

IIIQ2013/IIQ2013

III/Q2013/IIIQ2012

USA

QOQ: 0.8
SAAR: 3.2

1.9

Japan

QOQ: 0.8

SAAR: 3.4

3.0

China

2.1 AE 8.7

7.9

Euro Area

0.3

0.0

Germany

0.5

1.2

France

0.0

0.6

Italy

0.2

-1.5

UK

0.9

2.0

IVQ2013/IIIQ2013

IVQ2013/IVQ2012

USA

QOQ: 0.8

SAAR: 3.2

2.6

Japan

QOQ: 0.0

SAAR: -0.2

2.7

China

1.6 AE 6.6

7.7

Euro Area

0.2

0.7

Germany

0.3

1.2

France

0.5

1.1

Italy

-0.2

-0.9

UK

0.5

2.7

IQ2014/IVQ2013

IQ2014/IQ2013

USA

QOQ -0.3

SAAR -1.1

1.4

Japan

QOQ: 1.0

SAAR: 4.0

3.0

China

1.8 AE 7.4

7.4

Euro Area

0.5

1.6

Germany

1.0

3.2

France

0.1

1.2

Italy

0.1

0.1

UK

0.7

2.7

IIQ2014/IQ2014

IIQ2014/IIQ2013

USA

QOQ 1.4

SAAR 5.5

2.7

Japan

QOQ: -1.9

SAAR: -7.4

-0.1

China

1.8 AE 7.4

7.5

Euro Area

0.2

1.2

Germany

0.0

1.4

France

0.2

0.7

Italy

0.0

0.1

UK

0.7

2.8

IIIQ2014/IIQ2014

IIIQ2014/IIIQ2013

USA

QOQ: 1.2

SAAR: 5.0

3.1

Japan

QOQ: 0.1

SAAR: 0.4

-0.9

China

1.8 AE 7.4

7.1

Euro Area

0.5

1.4

Germany

0.5

1.8

France

0.5

1.2

Italy

0.1

0.0

UK

0.6

2.4

IVQ2014/IIIQ2014

IVQ2014/IVQ2013

USA

QOQ: 0.6

SAAR: 2.3

2.9

Japan

QOQ: 0.5

SAAR: 2.0

-0.5

China

1.7 AE 7.0

7.2

Euro Area

0.4

1.6

Germany

0.9

2.4

France

0.1

0.8

Italy

-0.2

0.0

UK

0.6

2.5

IQ2015/IVQ2014

IQ2015/IQ2014

USA

QOQ: 0.8

SAAR: 3.2

4.0

Japan

QOQ: 1.4

SAAR: 5.5

0.0

China

1.8 AE 7.4

7.0

Euro Area

0.7

1.8

Germany

-0.2

1.3

France

0.4

1.2

Italy

0.2

0.1

UK

0.5

2.3

IIQ2015/IQ2015

IIQ2015/IIQ2014

USA

QOQ: 0.7

SAAR: 3.0

3.4

Japan

QOQ: 0.1

SAAR: 0.5

2.2

China

1.8 AE 7.4

7.0

Euro Area

0.4

2.1

Germany

0.6

1.8

France

0.0

1.0

Italy

0.4

0.5

UK

0.7

2.4

IIIQ2015/IIQ2015

IIIQ2015/IIIQ2014

USA

QOQ: 0.3

SAAR: 1.3

2.4

Japan

QOQ: 0.0

SAAR: -0.2

1.9

China

1.7 AE 7.0

6.9

Euro Area

0.5

2.0

Germany

0.5

1.8

France

0.4

0.9

Italy

0.2

0.6

UK

0.4

2.2

IVQ2015/IIIQ2015

IVQ2015/IVQ2014

USA

QOQ: 0.0

SAAR: 0.1

1.9

Japan

QOQ: -0.4

SAAR: -1.6

0.9

China

1.5 AE 6.1

6.8

Euro Area

0.4

2.0

Germany

0.4

2.1

France

0.2

1.1

Italy

0.5

1.3

UK

0.7

2.4

IQ2016/IVQ2015

IQ2016/IQ2015

USA

QOQ: 0.5

SAAR: 2.0

1.6

Japan

QOQ: 0.5

SAAR: 1.9

0.2

China

1.4 AE 5.7

6.7

Euro Area

0.6

1.9

Germany

0.8

2.0

France

0.6

1.2

Italy

0.3

1.4

UK

0.2

2.1

IIQ2016/IQ2016

IIQ2016/IIQ2015

USA

QOQ: 0.5

SAAR: 1.9

1.3

Japan

QOQ: 0.2

SAAR: 0.7

0.2

China

1.9 AE 7.8

6.7

Euro Area

0.3

1.8

Germany

0.6

3.7

France

-0.3

1.0

Italy

0.2

1.2

UK

0.5

1.9

IIIQ2016/IIQ2016

IIIQ2016/IIIQ2015

USA

QOQ: 0.5

SAAR: 2.2

1.6

Japan

QOQ: 0.3

SAAR: 1.1

0.5

China

1.7 AE 7.0

6.7

Euro Area

0.5

1.8

Germany

0.2

1.9

France

0.3

0.8

Italy

0.6

1.5

UK

0.5

1.9

IVQ2016/IIIQ2016

IVQ2016/IVQ2015

USA

QOQ: 0.5

SAAR: 2.0

2.0

Japan

QOQ: 0.2

SAAR: 0.9

1.2

China

1.6 AE 6.6

6.8

Euro Area

0.8

2.1

Germany

0.4

1.4

France

0.6

1.2

Italy

0.3

1.4

UK

0.6

1.8

IQ2017/IVQ2016

IQ2017/IQ2016

USA

QOQ: 0.6

SAAR: 2.3

2.1

Japan

QOQ: 1.1

SAAR: 4.6

1.8

China

1.5 AE 6.1

6.8

Euro Area

0.6

2.2

Germany

1.2

3.6

France

0.8

1.4

Italy

0.6

1.7

UK

0.6

2.2

IIQ2017/IQ2017

IIQ2017/IIQ2016

USA

QOQ: 0.5

SAAR: 2.2

2.2

Japan

QOQ: 0.4

SAAR: 1.6

2.0

China

1.8 AE 7.4

6.8

Euro Area

0.7

2.6

Germany

0.6

1.0 CA 2.3

France

0.7

2.4

Italy

0.4

1.9

UK

0.3

1.9

IIIQ2017/IIQ2017

IIIQ2017/IIIQ2016

USA

QOQ: 0.8

SAAR: 3.2

2.4

Japan

QOQ: 0.7

SAAR: 2.7

2.4

China

1.7 AE 7.0

6.7

Euro Area

0.8

2.9

Germany

0.9

2.5 CA 3.0

France

0.7

2.8

Italy

0.4

1.7

UK

0.3

1.8

IVQ2017/IIIQ2017

IVQ2017/IVQ2016

USA

QOQ: 0.9

SAAR: 3.5

2.8

Japan

QOQ: 0.3

SAAR: 1.2

2.5

China

1.5 AE 6.1

6.7

Euro Area

0.8

3.0

Germany

0.7

2.8 CA 3.4

France

0.7

3.0

Italy

0.5

1.9

UK

0.4

1.6

IQ2018/IVQ2017

IQ2018/IQ2017

USA

QOQ: 0.6

SAAR: 2.5

2.9

Japan

QOQ: -0.5

SAAR: -1.9

0.8

China

1.5 AE 6.1

6.8

Euro Area

0.3

2.6

Germany

0.1

1.6 CA 2.3

France

0.2

2.4

Italy

0.1

1.4

UK

0.1

1.1

IIQ2018/IQ2018

IIQ2018/IIQ2017

USA

QOQ: 0.9

SAAR: 3.5

3.2

Japan

QOQ: 0.5

SAAR: 2.1

1.0

China

1.7 AE 7.0

6.7

Euro Area

0.3

2.2

Germany

0.4

2.5 CA 2.1

France

0.2

1.9

Italy

-0.1

0.9

UK

0.5

1.3

IIIQ2018/IIQ2018

IIIQ2018/IIIQ2017

USA

QOQ: 0.7

SAAR: 2.9

3.1

Japan

QOQ -0.6

SAAR: -2.4

-0.3

China

1.6 AE 6.6

6.5

Euro Area

0.2

1.6

Germany

-0.1

1.1 CA 1.1

France

0.3

1.5

Italy

-0.1

0.4

UK

0.6

1.6

IVQ2018IIIQ2018

IVQ2018/IVQ2017

USA

QOQ: 0.3

SAAR: 1.1

2.5

Japan

QOQ: 0.3

SAAR: 1.0

-0.2

China

1.5 AE 6.1

6.4

Euro Area

0.3

1.2

Germany

0.2

0.9 CA 0.6

France

0.4

1.2

Italy

0.1

-0.1

UK

0.2

1.4

IQ2019/IV2018

IQ2019/IQ2018

USA

QOQ: 0.8

SAAR: 3.1

2.7

Japan

QOQ: 0.6

SAAR: 2.6

0.8

China

1.4 AE 5.7

6.4

Euro Area

0.4

1.4

Germany

0.5

0.9 CA 1.0

France

0.3

1.3

Italy

0.1

0.0

UK

0.6

2.0

IIQ2019/IQ2019

IIQ2019/IIQ2018

USA

QOQ: 0.5

SAAR: 2.0

2.3

Japan

QOQ: 0.5

SAAR: 2.0

0.9

China

1.6 AE 6.6

6.2

Euro Area

0.2

1.2

Germany

-0.2

-0.1 CA 0.3

France

0.3

1.4

Italy

0.1

0.1

UK

-0.2

1.2

IIIQ2019/IIQ2019

IIIQ2019/IIIQ2018

USA

QOQ: 0.5

SAAR 2.1

2.1

Japan

QOQ: 0.4

SAAR: 1.8

1.7

China

1.5 AE 6.1

6.0

Euro Area

0.2

1.2

Germany

0.1

1.0 CA 0.5

France

0.3

1.3

Italy

0.1

0.3

UK

0.4

1.1

QOQ: Quarter relative to prior quarter; SAAR: seasonally adjusted annual rate

Source: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.bls.gov/bls/other.htm https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/related-sites.html

Table V-4 provides two types of data: growth of exports and imports in the latest available months and in the past 12 months; and contributions of net trade (exports less imports) to growth of real GDP.

  • China. In Nov 2019, China exports decreased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier and imports increased 0.3 percent.
  • Germany. Germany’s exports decreased 2.3 percent in the month of Nov 2019 and decreased 2.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2019. Germany’s imports decreased 0.5 percent in the month of Nov 2019 and decreased 1.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2019. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to growth of GDP in IQ2012, contributed 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2012, contributed 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2012, deducted 0.5 percentage points in IVQ2012, deducted 0.3 percentage points in IQ2013 and deducted 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded deducted 0.0 percentage points from Germany’s GDP growth in IIIQ2013 and added 0.9 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2014 and added 0.8 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 0.5 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.8 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.3 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points in IVQ2015 and deducted 0.3 percentage points in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.5 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade added 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2017. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018 and deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.9 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2019.
  • United Kingdom. Net trade contributed 0.7 percentage points in IIQ2013. In IIIQ2013, net trade deducted 1.7 percentage points from UK growth. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to UK value added in IVQ2013. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to UK value added in IQ2014 and 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2014 and added 0.0 percentage points in IVQ2014. Net traded deducted 0.4 percentage points from growth in IQ2015. Net trade added 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.1-percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 1.8 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade added 1.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2016. Net trade added 0.33 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017 and contributed 0.01 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.11 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.14 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade added 0.02 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.26 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.44 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.00 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2018. Net trade deducted 2.93 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2019. Net trade contributed 2.57 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2019. Net trade contributed 2.41 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2019.
  • France. France’s exports decreased 2.2 percent in Nov 2019 while imports decreased 0.6 percent. France’s exports increased 1.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2019 and imports increased 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Net traded added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IIIQ2012 and 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IQ2013 and added 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2013, deducting 1.7 percentage points in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IVQ2013 and deducted 0.1 percentage points in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IIQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to France’s GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.6 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015 and deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.3 percentage points to GDP in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP in IIIQ2016 and added 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP in IQ2017 and added 0.9 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade added 0.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade added 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to GDP in IVQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP in IQ2019. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ219. Net trade deducted 0.4 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2019.
  • United States. US exports decreased 0.2 percent in Oct 2019 and goods exports decreased 1.4 percent in Jan-Oct 2019 relative to a year earlier. Imports decreased 1.7 percent in Oct 2019 and goods imports decreased 1.1 percent in Jan-Oct 2019 relative to a year earlier. Net trade added 0.27 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2012 and deducted 0.08 percentage points in IIIQ2012, adding 0.57 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade added 0.40 percentage points to US GDP growth in IQ2013 and deducted 0.33 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded subtracted 0.14 percentage points from US GDP growth in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 1.23 percentage points to US GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 1.11 percentage points from US GDP growth in IQ2014 and deducted 0.46 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade added 0.10 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2014. Net trade deducted 1.05 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 1.67 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.06 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015. Net trade deducted 1.00 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.20 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.50 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.35 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade added 0.05 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade deducted 1.36 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2016.  Net trade added 0.13 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017.  Net trade deducted 0.31 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2017. Net trade added 0.35 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.80 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.00 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2018. Net trade added 0.67 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade deducted 2.05 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018, deducting 0.35 percentage points in IVQ2018. Net trade added 0.73 percentage points in IQ2019, deducting 0.68 percentage points in IIQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.14 percentage points in IIIQ2019.

Industrial production increased 1.1 percent in Nov 2019 and decreased 0.9 percent in Oct 2019 after decreasing 0.4 percent in Sep 2019, with all data seasonally adjusted, as shown in Table I-1. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System conducted the annual revision of industrial production released on Mar 27, 2019 (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/revisions/Current/DefaultRev.htm):

“The Federal Reserve has revised its index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization.[1] On net, the revisions to the growth rates for total IP for recent years were small and positive, with the estimates for 2016 and 2017 a bit higher and the estimates for 2015 and 2018 slightly lower.[2] Total IP is still reported to have increased from the end of the recession in mid-2009 through late 2014 before declining in 2015 and rebounding in mid-2016. Subsequently, the index advanced around 7 1/2 percent over 2017 and 2018.

Capacity for total industry expanded modestly in each year from 2015 to 2017 before advancing 1 1/2 percent in 2018; it is expected to advance about 2 percent in 2019. Revisions for recent years were very small and showed slightly less expansion in most years relative to earlier reports.

In the fourth quarter of 2018, capacity utilization for total industry stood at 79.4 percent, about 3/4 percentage point above its previous estimate and about 1/2 percentage point below its long-run (1972–2018) average. The utilization rate in 2017 is also higher than its previous estimate.”

The report of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System states (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm):

“Industrial production and manufacturing production both rebounded 1.1 percent in November after declining in October. These sharp November increases were largely due to a bounceback in the output of motor vehicles and parts following the end of a strike at a major manufacturer. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, the indexes for total industrial production and for manufacturing moved up 0.5 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively. Mining production edged down 0.2 percent, while the output of utilities increased 2.9 percent.

At 109.7 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 0.8 percent lower in November than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 0.7 percentage point in November to 77.3 percent, a rate that is 2.5 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2018) average.” United States industry apparently decelerated to a lower growth rate followed by possible acceleration and weakening growth in past months. There could be renewed growth with oscillations.

Manufacturing decreased 22.3 percent from the peak in Jun 2007 to the trough in Apr 2009 and increasing 19.7 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Dec 2018. Manufacturing grew 19.9 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Nov 2019. Manufacturing in Nov 2019 is lower by 6.8 percent relative to the peak in Jun 2007. The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IIIQ2019 would have accumulated to 41.5 percent. GDP in IIIQ2019 would be $22,303.2 billion (in constant dollars of 2012) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $3182.1 billion than actual $19,121.1 billion. There are more than three trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 18.5 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 10.8 percent of the effective labor force (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/increase-in-valuations-of-risk.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html). US GDP in IIIQ2019 is 14.3 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $15,762.0 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $19,121.1 billion in IIIQ2019 or 21.3 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.7 percent. Professor John H. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. Cochrane (2016May02) measures GDP growth in the US at average 3.5 percent per year from 1950 to 2000 and only at 1.76 percent per year from 2000 to 2015 with only at 2.0 percent annual equivalent in the current expansion. Cochrane (2016May02) proposes drastic changes in regulation and legal obstacles to private economic activity. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 3.0 percent per year from Nov 1919 to Nov 2019. Growth at 3.0 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 154.0282 in Nov 2019. The actual index NSA in Nov 2019 is 104.7173 which is 32.0 percent below trend. Manufacturing grew at the average annual rate of 3.3 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2006. Growth at 3.3 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 159.4601 in Nov 2019. The actual index NSA in Nov 2019 is 104.7173, which is 34.3 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 1.9 percent between Dec 1986 and Nov 2019. Using trend growth of 1.9 percent per year, the index would increase to 135.5290 in Nov 2019. The output of manufacturing at 104.7173 in Nov 2019 is 22.7 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Using the NAICS (North American Industry Classification System), manufacturing output fell from the high of 110.5147 in Jun 2007 to the low of 86.3800 in Apr 2009 or 21.8 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased from 86.3800 in Apr 2009 to 105.8734 in Nov 2019 or 22.6 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased at the annual equivalent rate of 3.5 percent from Dec 1986 to Dec 2006. Growth at 3.5 percent would increase the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 160.7359 in Nov 2019. The NAICS index at 105.8734 in Nov 2019 is 34.1 below trend. The NAICS manufacturing output index grew at 1.7 percent annual equivalent from Dec 1999 to Dec 2006. Growth at 1.7 percent would raise the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 130.4112 in Nov 2019. The NAICS index at 105.8734 in Nov 2019 is 18.8 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Table I-13 provides national income by industry without capital consumption adjustment (WCCA). “Private industries” or economic activities have share of 86.9 percent in IIQ2019. Most of US national income is in the form of services. In Nov 2019, there were 153.624 million nonfarm jobs NSA in the US, according to estimates of the establishment survey of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm Table B-1). Total private jobs of 130.500 million NSA in Nov 2019 accounted for 84.9 percent of total nonfarm jobs of 153.624 million, of which 12.862 million, or 9.9 percent of total private jobs and 8.4 percent of total nonfarm jobs, were in manufacturing. Private service-providing jobs were 109.289 million NSA in Nov 2019, or 71.1 percent of total nonfarm jobs and 83.7 percent of total private-sector jobs. Manufacturing has share of 9.4 percent in US national income in IIIQ2019 and durable goods 5.6 percent, as shown in Table I-13. Most income in the US originates in services. Subsidies and similar measures designed to increase manufacturing jobs will not increase economic growth and employment and may actually reduce growth by diverting resources away from currently employment-creating activities because of the drain of taxation.

The geographical breakdown of exports and imports of Japan with selected regions and countries is in Table V-5 for Nov 2019. The share of Asia in Japan’s trade is close to one-half for 56.4 percent of exports and 48.3 percent of imports. Within Asia, exports to China are 20.5 percent of total exports and imports from China 24.4 percent of total imports. While exports of Japan to China decreased 5.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2019, imports from China decreased 16.4 percent. The second largest export market for Japan in Nov 2019 is the US with share of 19.0 percent of total exports, which is close to that of China, and share of imports from the US of 10.6 percent in total imports. Japan’s exports to the US decreased 12.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2019 and imports from the US decreased 10.3 percent. Western Europe has share of 11.0 percent in Japan’s exports and of 13.6 percent in imports. Rates of growth of exports of Japan in Nov 2019 are minus 12.9 percent for exports to the US, minus 13.0 percent for exports to Brazil and minus 10.1 percent for exports to Germany. Comparisons relative to 2011 may have some bias because of the effects of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Deceleration of growth in China and the US and threat of recession in Europe can reduce world trade and economic activity. Growth rates of imports in the 12 months ending in Nov 2019 are mixed. Imports from Asia decreased 14.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2019 while imports from China decreased 16.4 percent. Data are in millions of yen, which may have effects of recent depreciation of the yen relative to the United States dollar (USD) and revaluation of the dollar relative to the euro with multiple oscillations.

Table V-5, Japan, Value and 12-Month Percentage Changes of Exports and Imports by Regions and Countries, ∆% and Millions of Yen

Nov 2019

Exports
Millions of Yen

12 months ∆%

Imports Millions of Yen

12 months ∆%

Total

6,382,172

-7.9

6,464,248

-15.7

Asia

3,601,457

% Total 56.4

-5.7

3,120,231 % Total 48.3

-14.6

China

1,310,103

% Total 20.5

-5.4

1,578,118 % Total 24.4

-16.4

USA

1,211,621

% Total 19.0

-12.9

688,410

% Total

10.6

-10.3

Canada

75,675

1.7

106,399

-22.6

Brazil

27,844

-13.0

95,597

54.1

Mexico

96,673

-18.3

49,826

-6.9

Western Europe

701,977 % Total 11.0

-6.1

881,771 % Total 13.6

-5.6

Germany

170,518

-10.1

220,111

-14.9

France

58,572

-7.3

109,441

-0.3

UK

109,847

-1.5

73,353

-12.6

Middle East

214,018

7.2

703,307

-31.8

Australia

122,619

-18.5

373,802

-16.1

Source: Japan, Ministry of Finance http://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/info/index_e.htm

World trade projections of the IMF are in Table V-6. There is decreasing growth of the volume of world trade of goods and services from 3.6 percent in 2018 to 1.1 percent in 2019, stabilizing to 3.2 percent in 2020. Growth stabilizes at 3.3 percent on average from 2018 to 2024. World trade would be slower for advanced economies while emerging and developing economies (EMDE) experience faster growth. World economic slowdown would be more challenging with lower growth of world trade.

Table V-6, IMF, Projections of World Trade, USD Billions, USD/Barrel and Annual ∆%

2018

2019

2020

Average ∆% 2018-2024

World Trade Volume (Goods and Services)

3.6

1.1

3.2

3.3

Exports Goods & Services

3.4

1.3

3.1

3.5

Imports Goods & Services

3.8

1.0

3.3

3.4

Exports Goods & Services

G7

2.6

0.7

2.2

2.5

EMDE

3.9

1.9

4.1

4.1

Imports Goods & Services

G7

3.2

1.5

2.6

2.7

EMDE

5.1

0.7

4.3

4.3

Terms of Trade Goods & Services

G7

-0.7

0.6

0.3

0.0

EMDE

1.5

-1.3

-1.1

-0.2

World Crude Oil Price $/Barrel

68.3

61.8

57.9

58.3

Crude Oil: Simple Average of three spot prices: Dated Brent, West Texas Intermediate and the Dubai Fateh

Source: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook databank

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2019/02/weodata/index.aspx

The JP Morgan Global Composite Output Index of the JP Morgan Manufacturing and Services PMI™, produced by JP Morgan and HIS Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM, with high association with world GDP, increased to 51.7 in Dec from 51.4 in Nov, indicating expansion at faster rate (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/4ce5978f4e0a435d8173479a2c7bdcc7). This index has remained above the contraction territory of 50.0 during 87 consecutive months. The employment index increased from 50.9 in Nov to 51.0 in Dec with input prices changing at the same rate, new orders increasing at faster rate and output increasing at faster rate (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/4ce5978f4e0a435d8173479a2c7bdcc7). Olya Borichevska, from Global Economic Research at JP Morgan, finds improving growth (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/4ce5978f4e0a435d8173479a2c7bdcc7). The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI™, produced by JP Morgan and IHS Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM, decreased to 50.1 in Dec from 50.3 in Nov (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/dfce262b1e9141259cf6b5358c88cf04). New export orders decreased. Olya Borichevska, from Global Economic Research at JP Morgan, finds indications of weak growth ((https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/dfce262b1e9141259cf6b5358c88cf04).The Markit Brazil Composite Output Index decreased from 51.8 in Nov to 50.9 in Dec, indicating expansion in activity of Brazil’s private sector (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/99a80c12a022492480c0c6656c34f792). The Markit Brazil Services Business Activity index, compiled by Markit, increased from 50.9 in Nov to 51.0 in Dec indicating expanding services activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/99a80c12a022492480c0c6656c34f792). Pollyanna De Lima, Principal Economist at Markit, finds expanding activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/99a80c12a022492480c0c6656c34f792). The HIS Markit Brazil Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ IndexTM (PMI™) decreased from 52.9 in Nov to 50.2 in Dec, indicating manufacturing above neutral 50.0 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/e3f76504b1a34b3191a253e883461058). Pollyanna De Lima, Principal Economist at Markit, finds weaker manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/e3f76504b1a34b3191a253e883461058).

VA United States. The HIS Markit Flash US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) seasonally adjusted decreased to 52.5 in Dec from 52.6 in Nov (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/4a024793587146b3b3531072a063f56d). New export orders increased. The HIS Markit Flash US Services PMI™ Business Activity Index increased from 51.6 in Nov to 52.2 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/4a024793587146b3b3531072a063f56d). The IHS Markit Flash US Composite PMI™ Output Index increased from 52.0 in Nov to 52.2 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/4a024793587146b3b3531072a063f56d). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds that the surveys are consistent with quarterly GDP growth at annualized around 2.2 percent (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/4a024793587146b3b3531072a063f56d). The HIS Markit US Composite PMI™ Output Index of Manufacturing and Services increased to 52.7 in Dec from 52.0 in Nov (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/86baf86493b14968842191443ec38487). The HIS Markit US Services PMI™ Business Activity Index increased from 51.6 in Nov to 52.8 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/86baf86493b14968842191443ec38487). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds the indexes suggesting growth close to annualized 1.8 percent (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/742a7acf2bbc418699e19482ce3e0670). The HIS Markit US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) decreased to 52.4 in Dec from 52.6 in Nov (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/c582d7ce96cd4577aec39d8732716a53). New foreign orders increased. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at HIS Markit, finds improving growth (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/c582d7ce96cd4577aec39d8732716a53). The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Report on Business® decreased 0.9-percentage points from 48.1 in Nov to 47.2 in Dec, which indicates contracting growth (https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm). The index of new export orders decreased 0.6 percentage points from 47.9 in Nov to 47.3 in Dec. The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report on Business® PMI increased 1.1 percentage points from 53.9 in Nov to 55.0 in Dec, indicating growth of business activity/production during 119 consecutive months, while the index of new orders decreased 2.2 percentage points from 57.1 in Nov to 54.9 in Dec (https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm). Table USA provides the country economic indicators for the US.

Table USA, US Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index

Nov 12 months NSA ∆%: 2.1; Ex food and energy ∆%: 2.3 Nov month SA ∆%: 0.3; Ex food and energy ∆%: 0.2
Blog 12/22/19

WIW 11/24/19

Producer Price Index

Finished Goods

Nov 12-month NSA ∆%: 1.1; ex food and energy ∆% 1.5
Nov month SA ∆% 0.5; ex food and energy ∆%: 0.1

Final Demand

Nov 12-month NSA ∆%: 1.1; ex food and energy ∆% 1.3 Nov month SA ∆% 0.0; ex food and energy ∆%: -0.2
Blog 12/22/19

WIW 11/24/19

PCE Inflation

Nov 12-month NSA ∆%: headline 1.5 ex food and energy ∆% 1.6
Blog 1/12/20

Employment Situation

Household Survey: Nov Unemployment Rate SA 3.5%
Blog calculation People in Job Stress Nov: 18.5 million NSA, 10.8% of Labor Force
Establishment Survey: Oct Nonfarm Jobs 266,000; Private 254,000 jobs created 
Oct 12-month Average Hourly Earnings Inflation Adjusted ∆%: 1.3
Blog 12/8/19

Nonfarm Hiring

Nonfarm Hiring fell from 64.9 million in 2006 to 59.0 million in 2014 or by 5.9 million and to 63.7 million in 2016 or by 1.2 million. Nonfarm hiring increased to 68.9 million in 2018 or 4.0 million relative to 2006 while population grew 28.976 million.
Private-Sector Hiring Oct 2019 5.797 million higher by 6.9 percent than 5.423 million in Oct 2006 while population grew 30.170 million or 13.1 percent
Blog 12/22/19

GDP Growth

BEA Revised National Income Accounts
IQ2012/IQ2011 ∆%: 2.7

IIQ2012/IIQ2011 2.4

IIIQ2012/IIIQ2011 2.5

IVQ2012/IVQ2011 1.5

IQ2013/IQ2012 1.6

IIQ2013/IIQ2012 1.3

IIIQ2013/IIIQ2012 1.9

IVQ2013/IVQ2012 2.6

IQ2014/IQ2013 1.4

IIQ2014/IIQ2013 2.7

IIIQ2014/IIIQ2013 3.1

IVQ2014/IVQ2013 2.9

IQ2015/IQ2014 4.0

IIQ2015/IIQ2014 3.4

IIIQ2015/IIIQ2014 2.4

IVQ2015/IVQ2014 1.9

IQ2016/IQ2015 1.6

IIQ2016/IIQ2015 1.3

IIIQ2016/IIIQ2015 1.6

IVQ2016/IVQ2015 2.0

IQ2017/IQ2016 2.1

IIQ2017/IIQ2016 2.2

IIIQ2017/IIIQ2016 2.4

IVQ2017/IVQ2016 2.8

IQ2018/IQ2017 2.9

IIQ2018/IIQ2017 3.2

IIIQ2018/IIIQ2017: 3.1

IVQ2018/IVQ2017 2.5

IQ2019/IQ2018 2.7

IIQ2019/IIQ2018 2.3

IIIQ2019/IIIQ2019 2.1

IQ2012 SAAR 3.2

IIQ2012 SAAR 1.7

IIIQ2012 SAAR 0.5

IVQ2012 SAAR 0.5

IQ2013 SAAR 3.6

IIQ2013 SAAR 0.5

IIIQ2013 SAAR 3.2

IVQ2013 SAAR 3.2

IQ2014 SAAR -1.1

IIQ2014 SAAR 5.5

IIIQ2014 SAAR 5.0

IVQ2014 SAAR 2.3

IQ2015 SAAR 3.2

IIQ2015 SAAR: 3.0

IIIQ2015 SAAR: 1.3

IVQ2015 SAAR: 0.1

IQ2016 SAAR: 2.0

IIQ2016 SAAR: 1.9

IIIQ2016 SAAR: 2.2

IVQ2016 SAAR 2.0

IQ2017 SAAR 2.3

IIQ2017 SAAR 2.2

IIIQ2017 SAAR 3.2

IVQ2017 SAAR 3.5

IQ2018 SAAR 2.5

IIQ2018 SAAR 3.5

IIIQ2018 SAAR 2.9

IVQ2018 SAAR 1.1

IQ2019 SAAR 3.1

IIQ2019 SAAR 2.0

IIIQ2019 SAAR 2.1
Blog 1/5/20

Real Private Fixed Investment

SAAR IIIQ2019 ∆% -0.8 IVQ2007 to IIIQ2019: ∆%26.6 Blog 1/5/20

Corporate Profits

IIIQ2019 SAAR: Corporate Profits -0.2; Undistributed Profits 3.6 Blog 1/5/20

Personal Income and Consumption

Nov month ∆% SA Real Disposable Personal Income (RDPI) SA ∆% 0.4
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (RPCE): 0.4
12-month Nov NSA ∆%:
RDPI: 3.1; RPCE ∆%: 2.4
Blog 1/12/20

Quarterly Services Report

IIIQ19/IIIQ18 NSA ∆%:
Information 5.8

Financial & Insurance 6.6

Earlier Data:
Blog 3/22/15

Employment Cost Index

Compensation Private IIIQ2019 SA ∆%: 0.8 Sep 12 months ∆%: 2.7

Earlier Data:
Blog 2/1/15

Industrial Production

Nov month SA ∆%: 1.1
12 months SA ∆%: -0.8

Manufacturing Nov SA 1.1 ∆% Nov 12 months SA ∆% minus 0.8, NSA minus 0.7
Capacity Utilization: 77.3
Blog 12/29/19

Productivity and Costs

Nonfarm Business Productivity IIIQ2019∆% SAAE -0.3; IIIQ2019/IIQ2018 ∆% 1.4; Unit Labor Costs SAAE IIIQ2019 ∆% 3.6; IIIQ2019/IIIQ2018 ∆%: 3.1

Blog 12/1/19

New York Fed Manufacturing Index

General Business Conditions from Nov 2.9 to Dec 3.5
New Orders: From Nov 5.5 to Dec 2.6
Blog 12/29/19

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index

General Index from Nov 10.4 to Dec 0.3
New Orders from Nov 8.4 to Dec 9.4
Blog 12/29/19

Manufacturing Shipments and Orders

Nov Orders SA ∆% -0.7 Ex Transport 0.3

Jan-Nov 19/Jan-Nov 18 NSA New Orders ∆% -0.7 Ex transport 0.1

Earlier data:
Blog 4/5/15

Durable Goods

Nov New Orders SA ∆%: minus 2.0; ex transport ∆%: 0.0
Jan-Nov 19/Jan-Nov 18 New Orders NSA ∆%: -1.3 ex transport ∆% 0.4

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/26/15

Sales of New Motor Vehicles

IIQ2018 4,500,220; IIQ2017 4,419,349. Dec 19 Total Light Vehicles NSA 1516.5 thousand decreasing 6.3% from 1516.5 thousand in Dec 2018. Dec 19 SAAR 16.7 million, Nov 19 SAAR 17.1 million, Dec 18 SAAR 17.4 million

Blog 9/9/18 12/9/18 2/12/120

Sales of Merchant Wholesalers

Jan-Oct 2019/Jan-Oct 2018 NSA ∆%: Total 0.6; Durable Goods: 0.5; Nondurable
Goods: 0.7

EARLIER DATA:
Blog 4/12/15

Sales and Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers

Oct 19 12-M NSA ∆%: Sales Total Business 0.1; Manufacturers -1.6
Retailers 3.6; Merchant Wholesalers -1.1
Blog 12/22/19

Sales for Retail and Food Services

Jan-Nov 2019/Jan-Nov 2018 ∆%: Retail and Food Services 3.4; Retail ∆% 3.2
Blog 12/22/19

Value of Construction Put in Place

SAAR month SA Oct ∆%: minus 0.8 Jan-Oct 19/Jan-Oct 18 NSA: minus 1.7

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/5/15

Case-Shiller Home Prices

National Oct ∆% SA 0.5 National Oct 12M ∆% 3.3
Blog 1/5/20

FHFA House Price Index Purchases Only

Oct SA ∆% 0.2;
12-month NSA ∆%: 5.0
Blog 1/5/20

New House Sales

Nov month SAAR ∆%: 1.3
Jan-Nov 2019/Jan-Nov 2018 NSA ∆%: 9.7
Blog 1/5/20

Housing Starts and Permits

Nov Starts month SA ∆% 3.2; Permits ∆%: 1.4
Jan-Nov 2019/Jan-Nov 2018 NSA ∆% Starts 0.6; Permits ∆% 2.8

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/19/15

Rate of Homeownership

IIIQ2019 64.8

IIQ2019: 64.1

Blog 11/3/19

Trade Balance

Balance Oct SA -$47,199 million versus Sep -$51,100 million
Exports Oct SA ∆%: -0.2 Imports Oct SA ∆%: -1.7
Goods Exports Jan-Sep 2019/Jan-Oct 2018 NSA ∆%: minus 1.4
Goods Imports Jan-Oct 2019/Jan-Oct 2018 NSA ∆%: minus 1.1
Blog 12/15/19

Export and Import Prices

Nov 12-month NSA ∆%: Imports -1.3; Exports -1.3

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/12/15

International Terms of Trade

IIIQ2019 110.356 IVQ1947 150.474

2018 108.690 1929 142.590

Blog 1/5/20

Consumer Credit

Nov ∆% annual rate: Total 3.6; Revolving -2.7

Nonrevolving 5.8

Earlier Data:
Blog 5/10/15

Net Foreign Purchases of Long-term Treasury Securities

Oct Net Foreign Purchases of Long-term US Securities: $5.2 billion
Major Holders of Treasury Securities: China $1101.6 billion; Japan $1168.0 billion; Total Foreign US Treasury Holdings Dec $6780.8 billion
Blog 12/22/19

Treasury Budget

Fiscal Year 2020/2019 ∆% Nov: Receipts 2.6; Outlays 6.5 Individual Income Taxes 4.5
Deficit Fiscal Year 2011 $1,300 billion

Deficit Fiscal Year 2012 $1,087 billion

Deficit Fiscal Year 2013 $680 billion

Deficit Fiscal Year 2014 $485 billion

Deficit Fiscal Year 2015 $439 billion

Deficit Fiscal Year 2016 $585 billion

Deficit Fiscal Year 2017 $665 billion

Deficit Fiscal Year 2018 $779 billion

Deficit Fiscal Year 2019 $984 billion

Blog 12/22/19

CBO Budget and Economic Outlook

2012 Deficit $1087 B 6.8% GDP Debt $11,281 B 70.4% GDP

2013 Deficit $680 B, 4.1% GDP Debt $11,983 B 72.6% GDP

2014 Deficit $485 B 2.8% GDP Debt $12,780 B 74.1% GDP

2015 Deficit $438 B 2.4% GDP Debt $13,117 B 72.9% GDP

2016 Deficit $585 3.2% GDP Debt $14,168.4 B 76.7% GDP

2017 Deficit $665 3.5% GDP

Debt $14,665 76.5% GDP

2028 Deficit $1,526 B, 5.1 % GDP Debt $28,671 B 96.2% GDP

2048: Long-term Debt/GDP 152.0%

Blog 8/26/12 11/18/12 2/10/13 9/22/13 2/16/14 8/24/14 9/14/14 3/1/15 6/21/15 1/3/16 4/10/16 7/24/16 1/8/17 4/2/17 10/14/18

Commercial Banks Assets and Liabilities

Sep 2019 SAAR ∆%: Securities 21.0 Loans 2.2 Cash Assets -36.6 Deposits 7.9

Blog 10/20/19

Flow of Funds Net Worth of Families and Nonprofits

IIIQ2019 ∆ since 2007

Assets +$45,117.0 BN

Nonfinancial +$8,699.7 BN

Real estate +$7,114.8 BN

Financial +$36,417.3 BN

Net Worth +$43,235.4 BN

Net Worth IVQ2018/IIIQ2018 ∆% -3.5 Corporate Equity ∆% -16.1

Blog 1/12/20

Current Account Balance of Payments and Net International Investment Position

Current Account IIQ2019 NSA minus $138,326 MM

% GDP 2.4 SA
NIIP IIQ2019:

Minus $10,055 B

Blog 9/23/2018 2/10/2018 3/31/2019 7/7/2019 9/29/2019 11/3/2019

Collapse of United States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation

Blog 11/24/19

Squeeze of Economic Activity by Carry Trades

Blog 12/29/19

IMF View

World Real Economic Growth 2020 ∆% 3.4 Blog 11/3/19

Income, Poverty and Health Insurance in the United States

43.123 Million Below Poverty in 2015, 13.5% of Population

Median Family Income CPI-2015 Adjusted $56,516 in 2015 back to 1999 Levels

Uncovered by Health Insurance 28.966 Million in 2015

Blog 9/25/16

Monetary Policy and Cyclical Valuation of Risk Financial Assets

Blog 1/7/2018

Rules versus Discretionary Authorities in Monetary Policy

Blog 1/1/2017

Links to blog comments in Table USA: 1/5/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/01/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

12/29/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/diverging-economic-conditions-and.html

12/22/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/oscillating-valuations-of-risk.html

12/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/increase-in-valuations-of-risk_14.html

12/8/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/increase-in-valuations-of-risk.html

12/1/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

11/24/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/oscillating-risk-financial-assets-world.html

11/17/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial_16.html

11/10/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

11/3/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/decrease-of-fomc-policy-rate-monetary.html

10/27/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial_26.html

10/20/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/dollar-depreciation-fluctuating.html

10/13/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

10/6/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/volatility-of-valuations-of-risk.html

9/29/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/dollar-appreciation-decreasing.html

9/22/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/uncertain-fomc-outlook-of-monetary.html

9/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/competitive-exchange-rate-and-interest.html

9/8/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/increase-in-valuations-of-risk.html

9/1/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/revaluation-of-us-dollar-falling-yields.html

8/25/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/contraction-of-valuations-of-risk.html

8/18/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/global-decline-of-yields-of-government.html

8/11/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/competitive-exchange-rate-policies.html

8/4/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/dollar-appreciation-contraction-of.html

7/28/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/dollar-appreciation-in-anticipations-of.html

7/21/2019 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/global-manufacturing-stress-world.html

7/14/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/fomc-uncertain-outlook-frank-h-knights.html

7/7/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/twenty-million-unemployed-or.html

6/30/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/06/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

6/23/2019 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/06/fomc-outlook-uncertainty-central-bank.html

6/16/2019 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/06/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

5/5/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

4/21/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/04/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

3/31/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/03/inverted-yield-curve-of-treasury_30.html

12/9/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/12/fluctuation-of-valuations-of-risk.html

11/4/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/10/contraction-of-valuations-of-risk.html

1/7/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/01/twenty-three-million-unemployed-or.html

12/31/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/dollar-devaluation-cyclically.html

12/24/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_23.html

10/29/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/dollar-revaluation-and-increase-of.html

4/2/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/04/mediocre-cyclical-economic-growth-with.html

1/15/17 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/unconventional-monetary-policy-and.html

1/1/17 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/rules-versus-discretionary-authorities.html

12/25/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

10/16/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/10/imf-view-of-world-economy-and-finance.html

9/25/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/the-economic-outlook-is-inherently.html

7/24/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/unresolved-us-balance-of-payments.html

4/10/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/04/proceeding-cautiously-in-reducing.html

1/17/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/unconventional-monetary-policy-and.html

1/3/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/weakening-equities-and-dollar.html

10/11/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/10/interest-rate-policy-uncertainty-imf.html

6/21/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/fluctuating-financial-asset-valuations.html

5/10/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/quite-high-equity-valuations-and.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html

9/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitics-monetary-policy-and.html

8/24/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/monetary-policy-world-inflation-waves.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

9/22/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

2/10/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/united-states-unsustainable-fiscal.html

Motor vehicle sales and production in the US have been in long-term structural change. Table VA-1A provides the data on new motor vehicle sales and domestic car production in the US from 1990 to 2010. New motor vehicle sales grew from 14,137 thousand in 1990 to the peak of 17,806 thousand in 2000 or 29.5 percent. In that same period, domestic car production fell from 6,231 thousand in 1990 to 5,542 thousand in 2000 or -11.1 percent. New motor vehicle sales fell from 17,445 thousand in 2005 to 11,772 in 2010 or 32.5 percent while domestic car production fell from 4,321 thousand in 2005 to 2,840 thousand in 2010 or 34.3 percent. In IIQ2018, light vehicle sales accumulated to 4,500,220, which is higher by 1.8 percent relative to 4,419,349 a year earlier in IIQ2017 (http://www.motorintelligence.com/m_frameset.html). Total not seasonally adjusted light vehicle sales reached 1516.5 thousands in Dec 2019, decreasing 6.3 percent from 1617.8 thousands in Dec 2018 (https://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gap_hist.xlsx). The seasonally adjusted annual rate of light vehicle sales in the US reached 16.7 million in Dec 2019, lower than 17.1 million in Nov 2019 and lower than 17.4 million in Dec 2018 (https://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gap_hist.xlsx).

Table VA-1A, US, New Motor Vehicle Sales and Car Production, Thousand Units 7

New Motor Vehicle Sales

New Car Sales and Leases

New Truck Sales and Leases

Domestic Car Production

1990

14,137

9,300

4,837

6,231

1991

12,725

8,589

4,136

5,454

1992

13,093

8,215

4,878

5,979

1993

14,172

8,518

5,654

5,979

1994

15,397

8,990

6,407

6,614

1995

15,106

8,536

6,470

6,340

1996

15,449

8,527

6,922

6,081

1997

15,490

8,273

7,218

5,934

1998

15,958

8,142

7,816

5,554

1999

17,401

8,697

8,704

5,638

2000

17,806

8,852

8,954

5,542

2001

17,468

8,422

9,046

4,878

2002

17,144

8,109

9,036

5,019

2003

16,968

7,611

9,357

4,510

2004

17,298

7,545

9,753

4,230

2005

17,445

7,720

9,725

4,321

2006

17,049

7,821

9,228

4,367

2007

16,460

7,618

8,683

3,924

2008

13,494

6,814

6.680

3,777

2009

10,601

5,456

5,154

2,247

2010

11,772

5,729

6,044

2,840

Source: US Census Bureau

https://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gap_hist.xlsx

Chart I-5 of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve provides output of motor vehicles and parts in the United States from 1972 to 2019. Output virtually stagnated since the late 1990s with recent increase.

clip_image007

Chart 1-5, US, Motor Vehicles and Parts Output, 1972-2019

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm

VB Japan. The GDP of Japan grew at 1.0 percent per year on average from 1991 to 2002, with the GDP implicit deflator falling at 0.8 percent per year on average. The average growth rate of Japan’s GDP was 4 percent per year on average from the middle of the 1970s to 1992 (Ito 2004). Low growth in Japan in the 1990s is commonly labeled as “the lost decade” (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 81-115). Table VB-GDP provides yearly growth rates of Japan’s GDP from 1995 to 2018. Growth weakened from 2.7 per cent in 1995 and 3.1 percent in 1996 to contractions of 1.1 percent in 1998 and 0.3 percent in 1999. Growth rates were below 2 percent with exception of 2.8 percent in 2000 and 2.2 percent in 2004. Japan’s GDP contracted sharply by 1.1 percent in 2008 and 5.4 percent in 2009. As in most advanced economies, growth was robust at 4.2 percent in 2010 but mediocre at minus 0.1 percent in 2011 because of the tsunami and 1.5 percent in 2012. Japan’s GDP grew 2.0 percent in 2013 and nearly stagnated in 2014 at 0.4 percent. The GDP of Japan increased 1.2 percent in 2015 and 0.5 percent in 2016. Japan’s GDP increased at 2.2 percent in 2017. The GDP of Japan increased 0.3 percent in 2018. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). Japan’s real GDP in calendar year 2018 is 5.5 percent higher than in calendar year 2007 for growth at the average yearly rate of 0.5 percent. Japan’s real GDP grew 12.8 percent from the trough of 2009 to 2018 at the average yearly rate of 1.3 percent (http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html).

Table VB-GDP, Japan, Yearly Percentage Change of GDP ∆%

Calendar Year

∆%

1995

2.7

1996

3.1

1997

1.1

1998

-1.1

1999

-0.3

2000

2.8

2001

0.4

2002

0.1

2003

1.5

2004

2.2

2005

1.7

2006

1.4

2007

1.7

2008

-1.1

2009

-5.4

2010

4.2

2011

-0.1

2012

1.5

2013

2.0

2014

0.4

2015

1.2

2016

0.5

2017

2.2

2018

0.3

Source: Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html

Table VB-BOJF provides the forecasts of economic activity and inflation in Japan by the majority of members of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, which is part of their Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf) with changes on Jul 21, 2015 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k150121a.pdf). For fiscal 2015, the forecast is of growth of GDP between 1.5 to 2.1 percent, with the all items CPI less fresh food 0.2 to 1.2 to 3.3 percent (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf). The critical difference is forecast of the CPI excluding fresh food of 0.2 to 1.2 percent in 2015 and 1.2 to 2.2 percent in 2016 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf). Consumer price inflation in Japan excluding fresh food was minus 0.4 percent in Mar 2014 and 2.2 percent in 12 months (http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1581.htm), significantly because of the increase of the tax on value added of consumption in Apr 2014. The new monetary policy of the Bank of Japan aims to increase inflation to 2 percent. These forecasts are biannual in Apr and Oct. The Cabinet Office, Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan released on Jan 22, 2013, a “Joint Statement of the Government and the Bank of Japan on Overcoming Deflation and Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130122c.pdf) with the important change of increasing the inflation target of monetary policy from 1 percent to 2 percent:

“The Bank of Japan conducts monetary policy based on the principle that the policy shall be aimed at achieving price stability, thereby contributing to the sound development of the national economy, and is responsible for maintaining financial system stability. The Bank aims to achieve price stability on a sustainable basis, given that there are various factors that affect prices in the short run.

The Bank recognizes that the inflation rate consistent with price stability on a sustainable basis will rise as efforts by a wide range of entities toward strengthening competitiveness and growth potential of Japan's economy make progress. Based on this recognition, the Bank sets the price stability target at 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index.

Under the price stability target specified above, the Bank will pursue monetary easing and aim to achieve this target at the earliest possible time. Taking into consideration that it will take considerable time before the effects of monetary policy permeate the economy, the Bank will ascertain whether there is any significant risk to the sustainability of economic growth, including from the accumulation of financial imbalances.”

The Bank of Japan also provided explicit analysis of its view on price stability in a “Background note regarding the Bank’s thinking on price stability” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/data/rel130123a1.pdf http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130123a.htm/). The Bank of Japan also amended “Principal terms and conditions for the Asset Purchase Program” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130122a.pdf): “Asset purchases and loan provision shall be conducted up to the maximum outstanding amounts by the end of 2013. From January 2014, the Bank shall purchase financial assets and provide loans every month, the amount of which shall be determined pursuant to the relevant rules of the Bank.”

Financial markets in Japan and worldwide were shocked by new bold measures of “quantitative and qualitative monetary easing” by the Bank of Japan (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The objective of policy is to “achieve the price stability target of 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) at the earliest possible time, with a time horizon of about two years” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The main elements of the new policy are as follows:

  1. Monetary Base Control. Most central banks in the world pursue interest rates instead of monetary aggregates, injecting bank reserves to lower interest rates to desired levels. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has shifted back to monetary aggregates, conducting money market operations with the objective of increasing base money, or monetary liabilities of the government, at the annual rate of 60 to 70 trillion yen. The BOJ estimates base money outstanding at “138 trillion yen at end-2012) and plans to increase it to “200 trillion yen at end-2012 and 270 trillion yen at end 2014” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
  2. Maturity Extension of Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds. Purchases of bonds will be extended even up to bonds with maturity of 40 years with the guideline of extending the average maturity of BOJ bond purchases from three to seven years. The BOJ estimates the current average maturity of Japanese government bonds (JGB) at around seven years. The BOJ plans to purchase about 7.5 trillion yen per month (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130404d.pdf). Takashi Nakamichi, Tatsuo Ito and Phred Dvorak, wiring on “Bank of Japan mounts bid for revival,” on Apr 4, 2013, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323646604578401633067110420.html), find that the limit of maturities of three years on purchases of JGBs was designed to avoid views that the BOJ would finance uncontrolled government deficits.
  3. Seigniorage. The BOJ is pursuing coordination with the government that will take measures to establish “sustainable fiscal structure with a view to ensuring the credibility of fiscal management” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
  4. Diversification of Asset Purchases. The BOJ will engage in transactions of exchange traded funds (ETF) and real estate investment trusts (REITS) and not solely on purchases of JGBs. Purchases of ETFs will be at an annual rate of increase of one trillion yen and purchases of REITS at 30 billion yen.
  5. Bank Lending Facility and Growth Supporting Funding Facility. At the meeting on Feb 18, the Bank of Japan doubled the scale of these lending facilities to prevent their expiration in the near future (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140218a.pdf).

Table VB-BOJF provides the forecasts of economic activity and inflation in Japan by the majority of members of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, which is part of their Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1701b.pdf) with changes on Feb 1, 2017 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1604b.pdf). On Jun 19, 2015, the Bank of Japan announced a “New Framework for Monetary Policy Meetings,” which provides for quarterly release of the forecasts of the economy and prices beginning in Jan 2016 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/rel150619a.pdf). For fiscal 2015, the forecast is of growth of GDP between 0.7 to 0.7 percent, with the all items CPI less fresh food of 0.0 percent (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1604b.pdf). The critical difference is forecast of the CPI excluding fresh food of 0.0 to 0.2 percent in 2016 and 1.8 to 3.0 percent in 2017 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1604b.pdf). Consumer price inflation in Japan excluding fresh food was 0.1 percent in Mar 2016 and minus 0.3 percent in 12 months (http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1581.htm). The CPI increased significantly because of the increase of the tax on value added of consumption in Apr 2014. The new monetary policy of the Bank of Japan aims to increase inflation to 2 percent. These forecasts are biannual in Apr and Oct. The Cabinet Office, Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan released on Jan 22, 2013, a “Joint Statement of the Government and the Bank of Japan on Overcoming Deflation and Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130122c.pdf) with the important change of increasing the inflation target of monetary policy from 1 percent to 2 percent:

“The Bank of Japan conducts monetary policy based on the principle that the policy shall be aimed at achieving price stability, thereby contributing to the sound development of the national economy, and is responsible for maintaining financial system stability. The Bank aims to achieve price stability on a sustainable basis, given that there are various factors that affect prices in the short run.

The Bank recognizes that the inflation rate consistent with price stability on a sustainable basis will rise as efforts by a wide range of entities toward strengthening competitiveness and growth potential of Japan's economy make progress. Based on this recognition, the Bank sets the price stability target at 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index.

Under the price stability target specified above, the Bank will pursue monetary easing and aim to achieve this target at the earliest possible time. Taking into consideration that it will take considerable time before the effects of monetary policy permeate the economy, the Bank will ascertain whether there is any significant risk to the sustainability of economic growth, including from the accumulation of financial imbalances.”

The Bank of Japan also provided explicit analysis of its view on price stability in a “Background note regarding the Bank’s thinking on price stability” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/data/rel130123a1.pdf http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130123a.htm/). The Bank of Japan also amended “Principal terms and conditions for the Asset Purchase Program” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130122a.pdf): “Asset purchases and loan provision shall be conducted up to the maximum outstanding amounts by the end of 2013. From January 2014, the Bank shall purchase financial assets and provide loans every month, the amount of which shall be determined pursuant to the relevant rules of the Bank.”

Financial markets in Japan and worldwide were shocked by new bold measures of “quantitative and qualitative monetary easing” by the Bank of Japan (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The objective of policy is to “achieve the price stability target of 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) at the earliest possible time, with a time horizon of about two years” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The main elements of the new policy are as follows:

  1. Monetary Base Control. Most central banks in the world pursue interest rates instead of monetary aggregates, injecting bank reserves to lower interest rates to desired levels. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has shifted back to monetary aggregates, conducting money market operations with the objective of increasing base money, or monetary liabilities of the government, at the annual rate of 60 to 70 trillion yen. The BOJ estimates base money outstanding at “138 trillion yen at end-2012) and plans to increase it to “200 trillion yen at end-2012 and 270 trillion yen at end 2014” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
  2. Maturity Extension of Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds. Purchases of bonds will be extended even up to bonds with maturity of 40 years with the guideline of extending the average maturity of BOJ bond purchases from three to seven years. The BOJ estimates the current average maturity of Japanese government bonds (JGB) at around seven years. The BOJ plans to purchase about 7.5 trillion yen per month (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130404d.pdf). Takashi Nakamichi, Tatsuo Ito and Phred Dvorak, wiring on “Bank of Japan mounts bid for revival,” on Apr 4, 2013, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323646604578401633067110420.html), find that the limit of maturities of three years on purchases of JGBs was designed to avoid views that the BOJ would finance uncontrolled government deficits.
  3. Seigniorage. The BOJ is pursuing coordination with the government that will take measures to establish “sustainable fiscal structure with a view to ensuring the credibility of fiscal management” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
  4. Diversification of Asset Purchases. The BOJ will engage in transactions of exchange traded funds (ETF) and real estate investment trusts (REITS) and not solely on purchases of JGBs. Purchases of ETFs will be at an annual rate of increase of one trillion yen and purchases of REITS at 30 billion yen.
  5. Bank Lending Facility and Growth Supporting Funding Facility. At the meeting on Feb 18, the Bank of Japan doubled the scale of these lending facilities to prevent their expiration in the near future (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140218a.pdf).
  6. Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Negative Nominal Interest Rate. On January 29, 2016, the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan introduced a new policy to attain the “price stability target of 2 percent at the earliest possible time” (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2016/k160129a.pdf). The new framework consists of three dimensions: quantity, quality and interest rate. The interest rate dimension consists of rates paid to current accounts that financial institutions hold at the Bank of Japan of three tiers zero, positive and minus 0.1 percent. The quantitative dimension consists of increasing the monetary base at the annual rate of 80 trillion yen. The qualitative dimension consists of purchases by the Bank of Japan of Japanese government bonds (JGBs), exchange traded funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITS).
  7. Quantitative and Qualitative Easing with Yield Curve Control. The Bank of Japan introduced a new approach, QQE with Yield Curve Control (“Quantitative and Qualitative Easing with Yield Curve Control”) at its policy meeting on Sep 21, 2016 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2016/k160921a.pdf). The policy consists of two measures. First “yield curve control” consists of controlling the long-term and short-term interest rates. The bank will fix the interest rates of policy balances held by financial institutions at the BOJ at minus 0.1 percent and will purchase Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) in the amount required to maintain the yield of the 10-year JGB at around zero percent. Second, “the inflation-overshooting commitment” consists of increasing base money to maintain the CPI price stability target above 2 percent.

Table VB-BOJF, Bank of Japan, Forecasts of the Majority of Members of the Policy Board, % Year on Year

Fiscal Year
Date of Forecast

Real GDP

CPI All Items Less Fresh Food

Excluding Effects of Consumption Tax Hikes

2013

Apr 2014

+2.2 to +2.3
[+2.2]

+0.8

Jan 2014

+2.5 to +2.9

[+2.7]

+0.7 to +0.9

[+0.7]

Oct 2013

+2.6 to +3.0

[+2.7]

+0.6 to +1.0

[+0.7]

Jul 2013

+2.5 to +3.0

[+2.8]

+0.5 to +0.8

[+0.6]

2014

Apr 2015

-1.0 to -0.8

[-0.9]

+2.8

+0.8

Jan 2015

-0.6 to -0.4

[-0.5]

+2.9 to +3.2

[+2.9]

+0.9 to +1.2

[+0.9]

Oct 2014

+0.2 to +0.7

[+0.5]

+3.1 to +3.4

[+3.2]

+1.1 to +1.4

[+1.2]

Jul 2014

+0.6 to +1.3

[+1.0]

+3.2 to +3.5

[+3.3]

+1.2 to +1.5

[+1.3]

Apr 2014

+0.8 to +1.3
[+1.1]

+3.0 to +3.5
[+3.3]

+1.0 to +1.5
[+1.3]

Jan 2014

+0.9 to 1.5

[+1.4]

+2.9 to +3.6

[+3.3]

+0.9 to +1.6

[+1.3]

Oct 2013

+0.9 to +1.5

[+1.5]

+2.8 to +3.6

[+3.3]

+0.8 to +1.6

[+1.3]

Jul 2013

+0.8 to +1.5

[+1.3]

+2.7 to +3.6

[+3.3]

+0.7 to +1.6

[+1.3]

2015

Feb 2016

+0.7 to +0.7

[+0.7]

0.0

Jan 2016

+1.0 to +1.3

[+1.1]

0.0 to 0.2

[+0.1]

Oct 2015

+0.8 to +1.4

[+1.2]

0.0 to +0.4

[+0.1

Jul 2015

+1.5 to +1.9

[+1.7]

+0.3 to +1.0

[+0.7]

Apr 2015

+1.5 to +2.1

[+2.0]

+0.2 to 1.2

[+0.8]

+0.2 to 1.2

[+0.8]

Jan 2015

+1.8 to +2.3

[+2.1]

+0.4 to +1.3

[+1.0]

+0.4 to +1.3

[+1.0]

Oct 2014

+1.2 to +1.7

[+1.5]

+1.8 to 2.6

[+2.4]

+1.1 to +1.9

[+1.7]

Jul 2014

+1.2 to +1.6

[+1.5]

+1.9 to +2.8

[+2.6]

+1.2 to +2.1

[+1.9]

Apr 2014

+1.2 to +1.5
[+1.5]

+1.9 to +2.8
[+2.6]

+1.2 to +2.1
[+1.9]

Jan 2014

+1.2 to +1.8

[+1.5]

+1.7 to +2.9

[+2.6]

+1.0 to +2.2

[+1.9]

Oct 2013

+1.3 to +1.8

[+1.5]

+1.6 to +2.9

[+2.6]

+0.9 to +2.2

[+1.9]

Jul 2013

+1.3 to +1.9 [+1.5]

+1.6 to +2.9 [+2.6]

+0.9 to +2.2 [+1.9]

2016

Apr 2017

+1.4 to +1.4

[+1.4]

-0.3

Feb 2017

+1.2 to +1.5

[+1.4]

-0.2 to -0.1

[-0.2]

Jul 2016

+0.8 to +1.0

[+1.0]

0.0 to +0.3

[0.5]

0.0 to +0.3

[0.5]

Apr 2016

+0.8 to +1.4

[+1.2]

0.0 to +0.8

[+0.5]

0.0 to +0.8

[+0.5]

Jan 2016

+1.0 to +1.7

[+1.5]

0.2 to +1.2

[+0.8]

Oct 2015

+1.2 to +1.6

[+1.4]

+0.8 to +1.5

[+1.4]

Jul 2015

+1.5 to 1.7

[+1.5]

+1.2 to +2.1

[+1.9]

Apr 2015

+1.4 to +1.8

[+1.5]

+1.2 to +2.2

[+2.0]

+1.2 to +2.2

[+2.0]

Jan 2015

+1.5 to +1.7

[+1.6]

+1.5 to +2.3

[+2.2]

+1.5 to +2.3

[+2.2]

Oct 2014

+1.0 to +1.4

[+1.2]

+1.9 to 3.0

[+2.8]

+1.2 to 2.3

[+2.1]

Jul 2014

+1.0 to +1.5

[+1.3]

+2.0 to +3.0

[+2.8]

+1.3 to +2.3

[+2.1]

Apr 2014

+1.0 to +1.5
[+1.3]

+2.0 to +3.0
[+2.8]

+1.3 to +2.3
[+2.1]

2017

Apr 2017

+1.4 to +1.6

[+1.6]

+0.6 to +1.6

[+1.4]

Feb 2017

+1.3 to +1.6

[+1.5]

+0.8 to +1.6

[+1.5]

Jul 2016

1.0 to +1.5
[+1.3]

+0.8 to +1.8
[+1.7]

+0.8 to +1.8
[+1.7]

Apr 2016

0.0 to + +0.3

[+0.1]

1.8 to +3.0

[+2.7]

0.8 to +2.0

[+1.7

Jan 2016

+0.1 to + 0.5

[+0.3]

+2.0 to +3.1

[+2.8]

+ 1.0 to +2.1

[+1.8]

Oct 2015

+0.1 to +0.5

[+0.3]

+2.5 to +3.4

[+3.1]

+1.2 to 2.1

[+1.8]

Jul 2015

+0.1 to +0.5

[+0.2]

+2.7 to +3.4

[+3.1]

+1.4 to +2.1

[+1.8]

Apr 2015

+0.1 to +0.5

[+0.2]

+2.7 to +3.4

[+3.2]

+1.4 to +2.1

[+1.9]

2018

Apr 2017

+1.1 to +1.3

[+1.3]

+0.8 to +1.9

[+1.7]

Feb 2017

+1.0 to +1.2

[+1.1]

+0.9 to +1.9

[+1.7]

Jul 2016

+0.8 to +1.0
[+0.9]

+1.0 to +2.0
[+1.9]

+1.0 to +2.0
[+1.9]

Apr 2016

+0.6 to +1.2

[+1.0]

+1.0 to +2.1

[+1.9]

+1.0 to +2.1

[+1.9]

2019

Apr 2017

+0.6 to +0.7

[+0.7]

+1.4 to +2.5

[+2.4]

+0.9 to +2.0

[+1.9]

Figures in brackets are the median of forecasts of Policy Board members

Source: Policy Board, Bank of Japan

Figures in brackets are the median of forecasts of Policy Board members

Source: Policy Board, Bank of Japan

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k150121a.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140715a.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1510b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1601b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1604b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1607b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1701b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1704b.pdf

The Jibun Bank Flash Japan Composite Output Index did not change from 49.8 in Nov to 49.8 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/3a0fc101070843889329ca6eb9887de8). The Jibun Bank Flash Japan Services Business Activity Index increased from 50.3 in Nov to 50.6 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/3a0fc101070843889329ca6eb9887de8). The Jibun Bank Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI Index™ with the Flash Japan

Manufacturing PMI™ decreased from 48.9 in Nov to 48.8 in Dec

(https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/3a0fc101070843889329ca6eb9887de8). Joe Hayes, Economist at HIS

Markit, finds risk of contraction in the final quarter of 2019. (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/3a0fc101070843889329ca6eb9887de8).The Jibun Bank Composite Output PMI Index decreased from 49.8 in Nov to 48.6 in Dec, indicating weak business activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/db3eca841d3d4c7eb063b4a3f6504660). The Jibun Bank Business Activity Index of Services decreased to 49.4 in Dec from 50.3 in Nov (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/db3eca841d3d4c7eb063b4a3f6504660). Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, finds weaker conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/db3eca841d3d4c7eb063b4a3f6504660). The Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™), seasonally adjusted, decreased from 48.9 in Nov to 48.4 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/354b7799743945bc981b753925190f55). New orders decreased while new foreign orders decreased. Joe Hayes, Associate Economist at IHS Markit, finds weak conditions in manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/354b7799743945bc981b753925190f55). Table JPY provides the country data table for Japan.

Table JPY, Japan, Economic Indicators

Historical GDP and CPI

1981-2010 Real GDP Growth and CPI Inflation 1981-2010
Blog 8/9/11 Table 26

Corporate Goods Prices

Nov ∆% 0.2
12 months ∆% 0.1
Blog 12/15/19

Consumer Price Index

Nov NSA ∆% 0.1; Nov 12 months NSA ∆% 0.5
Blog 12/22/19

Real GDP Growth

IIIQQ2019 ∆%: 0.4 on IIQ2019; IIIQ2019 SAAR 1.8;
∆% from quarter a year earlier: 1.7
Blog 6/16/13 8/18/13 9/15/13 11/17/13 12/15/13 2/23/14 3/16/14 5/18/14 6/15/14 8/17/14 9/14/14 11/23/14 12/14/14 2/22/15 3/15/15 5/24/15 6/14/15 8/23/15 9/13/15 11/22/15 12/13/15 2/21/16 3/13/16 5/22/16 6/12/16 8/21/16 9/11/16 11/20/16 12/11/16 2/19/17 3/12/17 5/21/17 6/11/17 8/20/17 9/10/17 11/26/17 12/17/17 2/18/18 3/11/18 5/20/18 6/17/18 8/19/18 9/16/18 11/18/18 2/17/19 3/17/19 5/26/19 6/16/19 8/18/19 9/15/19 11/24/19 12/29/19

Employment Report

Nov Unemployed 1.51 million

Change in unemployed since last year: -17 thousand
Unemployment rate: 2.2%
Blog 12/29/19

All Industry Indices

Sep month SA ∆% 1.5
12-month NSA ∆% 2.9

Earlier Data:

Blog 4/26/15

Industrial Production

Nov SA month ∆%: -0.9
Nov 12-month NSA ∆% -8.1

Earlier Data:
Blog 3/29/15

Machine Orders

Total Oct ∆% 5.2

Private ∆%: 1.8 Excluding Volatile Orders minus -6.0

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/19/15

Tertiary Index

Sep month SA ∆% 1.8
Sep 12 months NSA ∆% 3.8

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/26/15

Wholesale and Retail Sales

Nov 12 months:
Total ∆%: -6.7
Wholesale ∆%: -8.7
Retail ∆%: -2.1

Earlier Data:
Blog 3/29/15

Family Income and Expenditure Survey

Oct 12-month ∆% total nominal consumption -4.8, real -5.1

Earlier Data:

Blog 3/29/15

Trade Balance

Exports Nov 12 months ∆%: -7.9 Imports Nov 12 months ∆% -15.7

Earlier Data:

Blog 4/26/15

Links to blog comments in Table JPY: 12/29/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/diverging-economic-conditions-and.html

12/22/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/oscillating-valuations-of-risk.html

12/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/increase-in-valuations-of-risk_14.html

12/1/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

11/24/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/oscillating-risk-financial-assets-world.html

11/17/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial_16.html

11/3/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/decrease-of-fomc-policy-rate-monetary.html

10/27/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial_26.html

10/20/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/dollar-depreciation-fluctuating.html

10/6/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/volatility-of-valuations-of-risk.html

9/22/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/uncertain-fomc-outlook-of-monetary.html

9/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/competitive-exchange-rate-and-interest.html

9/8/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/increase-in-valuations-of-risk.html

8/25/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/contraction-of-valuations-of-risk.html

8/18/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/global-decline-of-yields-of-government.html

8/4/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/dollar-appreciation-contraction-of.html

7/21/2019 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/global-manufacturing-stress-world.html

7/14/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/fomc-uncertain-outlook-frank-h-knights.html

6/30/2019 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/06/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

6/16/2019 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/06/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

5/26/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/05/contraction-of-risk-financial-assets.html

3/17/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/03/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

2/17/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/02/dollar-revaluation-with-increases-in.html

11/18/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/11/weakening-gdp-growth-in-major-economies.html

9/16/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/09/recovery-without-hiring-in-lost.html

8/19/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/08/world-inflation-waves-lost-economic.html

6/17/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/fomc-increases-interest-rates-with.html

5/20/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/dollar-revaluation-united-states_24.html

3/11/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/twenty-three-million-unemployed-or.html

2/18/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/united-states-inflation-trend-or.html

12/17/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/fomc-increases-interest-rates-with.html

9/10/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

8/20/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

5/21/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/dollar-devaluation-world-inflation.html

3/12/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/increasing-interest-rates-twenty-four.html

12/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/rising-values-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/20/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/interest-rate-increase-could-well.html

9/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/interest-rate-uncertainty-and-valuation.html

8/21/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/interest-rate-policy-uncertainty-and.html

6/12/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/considerable-uncertainty-about-economic.html

5/22/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/most-fomc-participants-judged-that-if.html

3/13/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/monetary-policy-and-fluctuations-of_13.html

12/13/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/liftoff-of-interest-rates-with-volatile_17.html

11/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-liftoff-followed-by.html

9/13/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what_13.html

08/23/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/global-decline-of-values-of-financial.html

6/14/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/volatility-of-financial-asset.html

5/24/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/interest-rate-policy-and-dollar.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

3/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

2/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html

12/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/global-financial-and-economic-risk.html

11/23/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.htm

9/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitics-monetary-policy-and.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

6/15/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financialgeopolitical-risks-recovery.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html

2/23/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html

12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

VC China. China estimates an index of nonmanufacturing purchasing managers based on a sample of 1200 nonmanufacturing enterprises across the country (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Table CIPMNM provides this index and components. The total index increased from 55.7 in Jan 2011 to 58.0 in Mar 2012, decreasing to 53.9 in Aug 2013. The index decreased from 56.0 in Nov 2013 to 54.6 in Dec 2013, easing to 53.4 in Jan 2014. The index moved to 53.5 Dec 2019. The index of new orders increased from 52.2 in Jan 2012 to 54.3 in Dec 2012 but fell to 50.1 in May 2013, barely above the neutral frontier of 50.0. The index of new orders stabilized at 51.0 in Nov-Dec 2013, easing to 50.9 in Jan 2014. The index of new orders moved to 50.4 in Dec 2019.

Table CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted

Total Index

New Orders

Interm.
Input Prices

Subs Prices

Exp

Dec 2019

53.5

50.4

52.4

50.3

59.1

Nov

54.4

51.3

53.2

51.3

61.0

Oct

52.8

49.4

51.3

48.9

60.7

Sep

53.7

50.5

52.8

50.0

59.7

Aug

53.8

50.1

50.8

49.1

60.4

Jul

53.7

50.4

52.9

50.6

59.8

Jun

54.2

51.5

51.5

49.7

60.6

May

54.3

50.3

52.2

49.9

60.2

Apr

54.3

50.8

53.0

50.5

60.3

Mar

54.8

52.5

52.5

51.0

61.1

Feb

54.3

50.7

52.7

50.1

61.5

Jan

54.7

51.0

52.0

49.8

59.6

Dec 2018

53.8

50.4

50.1

47.6

60.8

Nov

53.4

50.1

50.8

49.4

60.9

Oct

53.9

50.1

54.9

51.2

60.6

Sep

54.9

51.0

55.6

51.5

60.1

Aug

54.2

50.6

54.3

50.9

61.4

Jul

54.0

51.0

53.9

52.0

60.2

Jun

55.0

50.6

53.5

51.1

60.8

May

54.9

51.0

54.2

50.6

61.0

Apr

54.8

51.1

52.7

50.6

61.5

Mar

54.6

50.1

49.9

49.3

61.1

Feb

54.4

50.5

53.2

49.9

61.2

Jan

55.3

51.9

53.9

52.6

61.7

Dec 2017

55.0

52.0

54.8

52.6

60.9

Nov

54.8

51.8

56.2

52.8

61.6

Oct

54.3

51.1

54.3

51.6

60.6

Sep

55.4

52.3

56.1

51.7

61.7

Aug

53.4

50.9

54.4

51.5

61.0

Jul

54.5

51.1

53.1

50.9

61.1

Jun

54.9

51.4

51.2

49.3

61.1

May

54.5

50.9

51.1

48.8

60.2

Apr

54.0

50.5

51.7

50.2

59.7

Mar

55.1

51.9

52.3

49.7

61.3

Feb

54.2

51.2

53.7

51.4

62.4

Jan

54.6

51.3

55.1

51.0

58.9

Dec 2016

54.5

52.1

56.2

51.9

59.5

Nov

54.7

51.8

53.5

51.4

60.7

Oct

54.0

50.9

53.7

51.5

60.6

Sep

53.7

51.4

51.7

50.1

61.1

Aug

53.5

49.8

52.6

50.4

59.4

Jul

53.9

49.9

51.4

49.5

59.5

Jun

53.7

50.8

51.6

50.6

58.6

May

53.1

49.2

51.6

49.8

57.8

Apr

53.5

48.7

52.1

49.1

59.1

Mar

53.8

50.8

51.4

49.5

59.0

Feb

52.7

48.7

50.5

48.3

59.5

Jan

53.5

49.6

49.9

47.7

58.4

Dec2015

54.4

51.7

49.0

48.2

58.3

Nov

53.6

50.2

49.3

47.7

60.0

Oct

53.1

51.2

51.2

48.8

61.1

Sep

53.4

50.2

50.8

47.9

60.0

Aug

53.4

49.6

49.6

47.8

59.7

Jul

53.9

50.1

48.9

47.4

60.0

Jun

53.8

51.3

50.6

48.7

59.7

May

53.2

49.5

52.8

50.4

60.1

Apr

53.4

49.1

50.8

48.9

60.0

Mar

53.7

50.3

50.0

48.4

58.8

Feb

53.9

51.2

52.5

51.2

58.7

Jan

53.7

50.2

47.6

46.9

59.6

Dec 2014

54.1

50.5

50.1

47.3

59.5

Nov

53.9

50.1

50.6

47.7

59.7

Oct

53.8

51.0

52.0

48.8

59.9

Sep

54.0

49.5

49.8

47.3

60.9

Aug

54.4

50.0

52.2

48.3

61.2

Jul

54.2

50.7

53.4

49.5

61.5

Jun

55.0

50.7

56.0

50.8

60.4

May

55.5

52.7

54.5

49.0

60.7

Apr

54.8

50.8

52.4

49.4

61.5

Mar

54.5

50.8

52.8

49.5

61.5

Feb

55.0

51.4

52.1

49.0

59.9

Jan

53.4

50.9

54.5

50.1

58.1

Dec 2013

54.6

51.0

56.9

52.0

58.7

Nov

56.0

51.0

54.8

49.5

61.3

Oct

56.3

51.6

56.1

51.4

60.5

Sep

55.4

53.4

56.7

50.6

60.1

Aug

53.9

50.9

57.1

51.2

62.9

Jul

54.1

50.3

58.2

52.4

63.9

Jun

53.9

50.3

55.0

50.6

61.8

May

54.3

50.1

54.4

50.7

62.9

Apr

54.5

50.9

51.1

47.6

62.5

Mar

55.6

52.0

55.3

50.0

62.4

Feb

54.5

51.8

56.2

51.1

62.7

Jan

56.2

53.7

58.2

50.9

61.4

Dec 2012

56.1

54.3

53.8

50.0

64.6

Nov

55.6

53.2

52.5

48.4

64.6

Oct

55.5

51.6

58.1

50.5

63.4

Sep

53.7

51.8

57.5

51.3

60.9

Aug

56.3

52.7

57.6

51.2

63.2

Jul

55.6

53.2

49.7

48.7

63.9

Jun

56.7

53.7

52.1

48.6

65.5

May

55.2

52.5

53.6

48.5

65.4

Apr

56.1

52.7

57.9

50.3

66.1

Mar

58.0

53.5

60.2

52.0

66.6

Feb

57.3

52.7

59.0

51.2

63.8

Jan

55.7

52.2

58.2

51.1

65.3

Notes: Interm.: Intermediate; Subs: Subscription; Exp: Business Expectations

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart CIPMNM provides China’s nonmanufacturing purchasing managers’ index. The index fell from 56.0 in Oct 2013 to 53.5 in Dec 2019.

clip_image009

Chart CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Table CIPMMFG provides the index of purchasing managers of manufacturing seasonally adjusted of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The general index (IPM) rose from 50.5 in Jan 2012 to 53.3 in Apr 2012, falling to 49.2 in Aug 2012, rebounding to 50.6 in Dec 2012. The index fell to 50.3 in Jul 2013, barely above the neutral frontier at 50.0, recovering to 51.4 in Nov 2013 but falling to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.5 in Jan 2014, 50.1 in Dec 2014 and 50.2 in Dec 2019. The index of new orders fell from 54.5 in Apr 2012 to 51.2 in Dec 2012. The index of new orders fell from 52.3 in Nov 2013 to 52.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.9 in Jan 2014 and moved to 50.4 in Dec 2014. The index moved to 51.2 in Dec 2019.

Table CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted

IPM

PI

NOI

INV

EMP

SDEL

2019

Dec

50.2

53.2

51.2

47.2

47.3

51.1

Nov

50.2

52.6

51.3

47.8

47.3

50.5

Oct

49.3

50.8

49.6

47.4

47.3

50.1

Sep

49.8

52.3

50.5

47.6

47.0

50.5

Aug

49.5

51.9

49.7

47.5

46.9

50.3

Jul

49.7

52.1

49.8

48.0

47.1

50.1

Jun

49.4

51.3

49.6

48.2

46.9

50.2

May

49.4

51.7

49.8

47.4

47.0

50.9

Apr

50.1

52.1

51.4

47.2

47.2

49.9

Mar

50.5

52.7

51.6

48.4

47.6

50.2

Feb

49.2

49.5

50.6

46.3

47.5

49.8

Jan

49.5

50.9

49.6

48.1

47.8

50.1

2018

Dec

49.4

50.8

49.7

47.1

48.0

50.4

Nov

50.0

51.9

50.4

47.4

48.3

50.3

Oct

50.2

52.0

50.8

47.2

48.1

49.5

Sep

50.8

53.0

52.0

47.8

48.3

49.7

Aug

51.3

53.3

52.2

48.7

49.4

49.6

Jul

51.2

53.0

52.3

48.9

49.2

50.0

Jun

51.5

53.6

53.2

48.8

49.0

50.2

May

51.9

54.1

53.8

49.6

49.1

50.1

Apr

51.4

53.1

52.9

49.5

49.0

50.2

Mar

51.5

53.1

53.3

49.6

49.1

50.1

Feb

50.3

50.7

51.0

49.3

48.1

48.4

Jan

51.3

53.5

52.6

48.8

48.3

49.2

2017

Dec

51.6

54.0

53.4

48.0

48.5

49.3

Nov

51.8

54.3

53.6

48.4

48.8

49.5

Oct

51.6

53.4

52.9

48.6

49.0

48.7

Sep

52.4

54.7

54.8

48.9

49.0

49.3

Aug

51.7

54.1

53.1

48.3

49.1

49.3

Jul

51.4

53.5

52.8

48.5

49.2

50.1

Jun

51.7

54.4

53.1

48.6

49.0

49.9

May

51.2

53.4

52.3

48.5

49.4

50.2

Apr

51.2

53.8

52.3

48.3

49.2

50.5

Mar

51.8

54.2

53.3

48.3

50.0

50.3

Feb

51.6

53.7

53.0

48.6

49.7

50.5

Jan

51.3

53.1

52.8

48.0

49.2

49.8

2016

Dec

51.4

53.3

53.2

48.0

48.9

50.0

Nov

51.7

53.9

53.2

48.4

49.2

49.7

Oct

51.2

53.3

52.8

48.1

48.8

50.2

Sep

50.4

52.8

50.9

47.4

48.6

49.9

Aug

50.4

52.6

51.3

47.6

48.4

50.6

Jul

49.9

52.1

50.4

47.3

48.2

50.5

Jun

50.0

52.5

50.5

47.0

47.9

50.7

May

50.1

52.3

50.7

47.6

48.2

50.4

Apr

50.1

52.2

51.0

47.4

47.8

50.1

Mar

50.2

52.3

51.4

48.2

48.1

51.3

Feb

49.0

50.2

48.6

48.0

47.6

49.8

Jan

49.4

51.4

49.5

46.8

47.8

50.5

2015

Dec

49.7

52.2

50.2

47.6

47.4

50.7

Nov

49.6

51.9

49.8

47.1

47.6

50.6

Oct

49.8

52.2

50.3

47.2

47.8

50.6

Sep

49.8

52.3

50.2

47.5

47.9

50.8

Aug

49.7

51.7

49.7

48.3

47.9

50.6

Jul

50.0

52.4

49.9

48.4

48.0

50.4

Jun

50.2

52.9

50.1

48.7

48.1

50.3

May

50.2

52.9

50.6

48.2

48.2

50.9

Apr

50.1

52.6

50.2

48.2

48.0

50.4

Mar

50.1

52.1

50.2

48.0

48.4

50.1

Feb

49.9

51.4

50.4

48.2

47.8

49.9

Jan

49.8

51.7

50.2

47.3

47.9

50.2

2014

Dec

50.1

52.2

50.4

47.5

48.1

49.9

Nov

50.3

52.5

50.9

47.7

48.2

50.3

Oct

50.8

53.1

51.6

48.4

48.4

50.1

Sep

51.1

53.6

52.2

48.8

48.2

50.1

Aug

51.1

53.2

52.5

48.6

48.2

50.0

Jul

51.7

54.2

53.6

49.0

48.3

50.2

Jun

51.0

53.0

52.8

48.0

48.6

50.5

May

50.8

52.8

52.3

48.0

48.2

50.3

Apr

50.4

52.5

51.2

48.1

48.3

50.1

Mar

50.3

52.7

50.6

47.8

48.3

49.8

Feb

50.2

52.6

50.5

47.4

48.0

49.9

Jan

50.5

53.0

50.9

47.8

48.2

49.8

Dec 2013

51.0

53.9

52.0

47.6

48.7

50.5

Nov

51.4

54.5

52.3

47.8

49.6

50.6

Oct

51.4

54.4

52.5

48.6

49.2

50.8

Sep

51.1

52.9

52.8

48.5

49.1

50.8

Aug

51.0

52.6

52.4

48.0

49.3

50.4

Jul

50.3

52.4

50.6

47.6

49.1

50.1

Jun

50.1

52.0

50.4

47.4

48.7

50.3

May

50.8

53.3

51.8

47.6

48.8

50.8

Apr

50.6

52.6

51.7

47.5

49.0

50.8

Mar

50.9

52.7

52.3

47.5

49.8

51.1

Feb

50.1

51.2

50.1

49.5

47.6

48.3

Jan

50.4

51.3

51.6

50.1

47.8

50.0

Dec 2012

50.6

52.0

51.2

47.3

49.0

48.8

Nov

50.6

52.5

51.2

47.9

48.7

49.9

Oct

50.2

52.1

50.4

47.3

49.2

50.1

Sep

49.8

51.3

49.8

47.0

48.9

49.5

Aug

49.2

50.9

48.7

45.1

49.1

50.0

Jul

50.1

51.8

49.0

48.5

49.5

49.0

Jun

50.2

52.0

49.2

48.2

49.7

49.1

May

50.4

52.9

49.8

45.1

50.5

49.0

Apr

53.3

57.2

54.5

48.5

51.0

49.6

Mar

53.1

55.2

55.1

49.5

51.0

48.9

Feb

51.0

53.8

51.0

48.8

49.5

50.3

Jan

50.5

53.6

50.4

49.7

47.1

49.7

IPM: Index of Purchasing Managers; PI: Production Index; NOI: New Orders Index; EMP: Employed Person Index; SDEL: Supplier Delivery Time Index

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

China estimates the manufacturing index of purchasing managers on the basis of a sample of 820 enterprises (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Chart CIPMMFG provides the manufacturing index of purchasing managers. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013. The index decreased from 51.4 in Nov 2013 to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index moved to 50.2 in Dec 2019.

clip_image011

Chart CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Chart CIPCOMP provides China’s composite, manufacturing and nonmanufacturing, index. The index remains above the neutral 50.0, moving to 53.4 in Dec 2019.

clip_image013

Chart CIPCOMP, China, Composite Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Growth of China’s GDP in IIIQ2019 relative to the same period in 2018 was 6.0 percent and cumulative growth to IIIQ2019 was 6.3 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDP. Secondary industry accounts for 39.8 percent of cumulative GDP in IIIQ2019. Tertiary industry accounts for 54.0 percent of cumulative GDP in IIIQ2019 and primary industry for 6.2 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is shifting to lower growth rates with improvement in living standards by increasing growth of services. The bottom block of Table VC-GDP provides quarter-on-quarter growth rates of GDP and their annual equivalent. China’s GDP growth decelerated significantly from annual equivalent 10.0 percent in IQ2011 to 6.1 percent in IVQ2011 and 7.8 percent in IQ2012, rebounding to 8.7 percent in IIQ2012, 7.4 percent in IIIQ2012 and 8.2 percent in IVQ2012. Annual equivalent growth in IQ2013 eased to 7.8 percent and to 7.4 percent in IIQ2013, rebounding to 8.7 percent in IIIQ2013. Annual equivalent growth was 6.6 percent in IVQ2013, stabilizing to 7.4 percent in IQ2014 and to 7.4 percent in IIQ2014. Annual equivalent growth stabilized at 7.4 percent in IIIQ2014 and 7.0 percent in IVQ2014. Growth moved to annual equivalent 7.4 percent in IQ2015, 7.4 percent in IIQ2015 and 7.0 percent in IIIQ2015. Growth slowed to 6.1 percent in annual equivalent in IVQ2015 and 5.7 percent in IQ2016. Growth increased to annual equivalent 7.8 percent in IIQ2016 and 7.0 percent in IIIQ2016, decreasing to 6.6 percent in IVQ2016. Growth decelerated to annual equivalent 6.1 percent in IQ2017, accelerating to 7.4 percent in IIQ2017 and 7.0 percent in IIIQ2017. Growth decelerated to 6.1 percent annual equivalent in IVQ2017. Growth decelerated to 6.1 percent annual equivalent in IQ2018, accelerating to 7.0 percent in IIQ2018. Growth decelerated to annual equivalent 6.6 percent in IIIQ2018, decelerating to 6.1 percent annual equivalent in IVQ2018. Growth decelerated to 5.7 percent annual equivalent in IQ2019 and 6.6 percent in IIQ2019. Growth eased to 6.1 percent annual equivalent in IIIQ2019.

Table VC-GDP China, Quarterly Growth of GDP, Current CNY 100 Million and Inflation Adjusted ∆%

Cumulative GDP IQ2019

Value Current CNY Billion IIIQ2019

Value Current CNY Billion IQ2019 to IIIQ2019

IIIQ2019 Year-on-Year Constant Prices ∆%

Cumulative to IIIQ2019

∆%

GDP

24,686.5

69,779.8

6.0

6.2

Primary Industry

1,979.8

4,300.5

2.7

2.9

Secondary Industry

9,788.5

27,786.9

5.2

5.6

Tertiary Industry

12,918.2

37,692.5

7.2

7.0

Growth in Quarter Relative to Prior Quarter

∆% on Prior Quarter

∆% Annual Equivalent

∆% Year-on-Year

2019

IIIQ2019

1.5

6.1

6.0

IIQ2019

1.6

6.6

6.2

IQ2019

1.4

5.7

6.4

2018

IVQ2018

1.5

6.1

6.4

IIIQ2018

1.6

6.6

6.5

IIQ2018

1.7

7.0

6.7

IQ2018

1.5

6.1

6.8

2017

IVQ2017

1.5

6.1

6.7

IIIQ2017

1.7

7.0

6.7

IIQ2017

1.8

7.4

6.8

IQ2017

1.5

6.1

6.8

2016

IVQ2016

1.6

6.6

6.8

IIIQ2016

1.7

7.0

6.7

IIQ2016

1.9

7.8

6.7

IQ2016

1.4

5.7

6.7

2015

IVQ2015

1.5

6.1

6.8

IIIQ2015

1.7

7.0

6.9

IIQ2015

1.8

7.4

7.0

IQ2015

1.8

7.4

7.0

2014

IVQ2014

1.7

7.0

7.2

IIIQ2014

1.8

7.4

7.1

IIQ2014

1.8

7.4

7.5

IQ2014

1.8

7.4

7.4

2013

IVQ2013

1.6

6.6

7.7

IIIQ2013

2.1

8.7

7.9

IIQ2013

1.8

7.4

7.6

IQ2013

1.9

7.8

7.9

2012

IVQ2012

2.0

8.2

8.1

IIIQ2012

1.8

7.4

7.5

IIQ2012

2.1

8.7

7.6

IQ2012

1.9

7.8

8.1

2011

IVQ2011

1.5

6.1

8.8

IIIQ2011

1.9

7.8

9.4

IIQ2011

2.4

10.0

10.0

IQ2011

2.4

10.0

10.2

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Growth of China’s GDP in IIIQ2019 relative to the same period in 2018 was 6.0 percent and cumulative growth to IIIQ2019 was 6.3 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDP. Secondary industry accounts for 39.8 percent of cumulative GDP in IIIQ2019. Tertiary industry accounts for 54.0 percent of cumulative GDP in IIIQ2019 and primary industry for 6.2 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is shifting to lower growth rates with improvement in living standards by increasing growth of services. Table VC-GDPA shows that growth decelerated from 12.1 percent in IQ2010 and 11.2 percent in IIQ2010 to 7.9 percent in IQ2013, 7.6 percent in IIQ2013 and 7.9 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP grew 7.7 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 1.6 percent relative to IIIQ2013, which is equivalent to 6.6 percent per year. GDP grew 7.4 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent in IQ2014 that is equivalent to 7.4 percent per year. GDP grew 7.5 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is annual equivalent 7.4 percent. In IIIQ2014, GDP grew 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is 7.4 percent in annual equivalent. GDP grew 1.7 percent in IVQ2014, which is 7.0 percent in annual equivalent and 7.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2015, GDP grew 1.8 percent, which is equivalent to 7.4 in a year and 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 1.8 percent in IIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.4 percent in a year, and grew 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.7 percent in IIIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent in a year, and grew 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.5 percent in IVQ2015, which is equivalent to 6.1 percent in a year and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, GDP grew at 1.4 percent, which is equivalent to 5.7 percent in a year, and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.9 percent in IIQ2016, which is annual equivalent to 7.8 percent, and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, GDP grew at 1.7 percent, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent in a year and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, GDP grew at 1.6 percent, equivalent to 6.6 percent in a year, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 6.8 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased at 1.5 percent, which is 6.1 percent in annual equivalent. In IIQ2017, GDP grew at 1.8 percent, which is annual equivalent at 7.4 percent, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.7 percent in IIIQ2017, which is annual equivalent at 7.0 percent, and increased at 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, GDP grew 1.5 percent, which is annual equivalent to 6.1 percent, and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.5 percent in IQ2018, which is annual equivalent at 6.1 percent, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2018, GDP grew at 1.7 percent, which is annual equivalent to 7.0 percent, and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.6 percent in IIIQ2018, which is annual equivalent at 6.6 percent, and increased 6.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2018, GDP grew at 1.5 percent, which is annual equivalent to 6.1 percent, and increased 6.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.4 percent in IQ2019, which is annual equivalent to 5.7 percent, and increased 6.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2019, GDP grew at 1.6 percent, which is annual equivalent to 6.6 percent and increased 6.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.5 percent in IIIQ2019, which is annual equivalent to 6.1 percent, and increased 6.0 percent relative to a year earlier.

Table VC-GDPA China, Growth Rate of GDP, ∆% Relative to a Year Earlier and ∆% Relative to Prior Quarter

IQ2019

IIQ2019

IIIQ2019

IVQ2019

GDP

6.4

6.2

6.0

Primary Industry

2.7

3.3

2.7

Secondary Industry

6.1

5.6

5.2

Tertiary Industry

7.0

7.0

7.2

GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter

1.4

(5.7)

1.6

(6.6)

1.5

(6.1)

IQ2018

IIQ2018

IIIQ2018

IVQ2018

GDP

6.8

6.7

6.5

6.4

Primary Industry

3.2

3.2

3.6

3.5

Secondary Industry

6.3

6.0

5.3

5.8

Tertiary Industry

7.5

7.8

7.9

7.4

GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter

1.5

(6.1)

1.7

(7.0)

1.6

(6.6)

1.5

(6.1)

IQ2017

IIQ2017

IIIQ2017

IVQ2017

GDP

6.8

6.8

6.7

6.7

Primary Industry

3.0

3.8

3.9

4.4

Secondary Industry

6.4

6.4

6.0

5.7

Tertiary Industry

7.7

7.6

8.0

8.3

GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter

1.5

(6.1)

1.8

(7.4)

1.7

(7.0)

1.5

(6.1)

IQ2016

IIQ2016

IIIQ2016

IVQ2016

GDP

6.7

6.7

6.7

6.8

Primary Industry

2.9

3.1

3.5

2.9

Secondary Industry

5.8

6.3

6.1

6.1

Tertiary Industry

7.6

7.5

7.6

8.3

GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter

1.4

(5.7)

1.9

(7.8)

1.7

(7.0)

1.6

(6.6)

IQ2015

IIQ2015

IIIQ2015

IVQ2015

GDP

7.0

7.0

6.9

6.8

Primary Industry

3.2

3.5

3.8

4.1

Secondary Industry

6.4

6.1

6.0

6.1

Tertiary Industry

7.9

8.4

8.4

8.2

GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter

1.8

(7.4)

1.8

(7.4)

1.7

(7.0)

1.5

(6.1)

IQ2014

IIQ2014

IIIQ2014

IVQ2014

GDP

7.4

7.5

7.1

7.2

Primary Industry

3.5

3.9

4.2

4.1

Secondary Industry

7.3

7.4

7.4

7.3

Tertiary Industry

7.1

8.0

7.9

8.1

GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter

1.8

(7.4)

1.8

(7.4)

1.8

(7.4)

1.7

(7.0)

IQ2013

IIQ2013

IIIQ2013

IVQ2013

GDP

7.9

7.6

7.9

7.7

Primary Industry

3.4

3.0

3.4

4.0

Secondary Industry

7.8

7.6

7.8

7.8

Tertiary Industry

8.3

8.3

8.4

8.3

GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter

1.9

(7.8)

1.8

(7.4)

2.1

(8.7)

1.6

(6.6)

IQ2012

IIQ2012

IIIQ2012

IVQ2012

GDP

8.1

7.6

7.5

8.1

Primary Industry

3.8

4.3

4.2

4.5

Secondary Industry

9.1

8.3

8.1

8.1

Tertiary Industry

7.5

7.7

7.9

8.1

GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter

1.9

(7.8)

2.1

(8.7)

1.8

(7.4)

2.0

(8.2)

IQ2011

IIQ2011

IIIQ2011

IVQ2011

GDP

10.2

10.0

9.4

8.8

Primary Industry

3.5

3.2

3.8

4.5

Secondary Industry

11.1

11.0

10.8

10.6

Tertiary Industry

9.1

9.2

9.0

8.9

GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter

2.4

(10.0)

2.4

(10.0)

1.9

(7.8)

1.5

(6.1)

IQ2010

IIQ2010

IIIQ2010

IVQ2010

GDP

12.1

11.2

10.7

12.1

Primary Industry

3.8

3.6

4.0

3.8

Secondary Industry

14.5

13.3

12.6

14.5

Tertiary Industry

10.5

9.9

9.7

10.5

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Growth of China’s GDP in IVQ2016 relative to the same period in 2016 was 6.8 percent and

Chart VC-GDP of the National Bureau of Statistics of China provides annual value and growth rates of GDP. China’s GDP growth in 2016 is still high at 6.7 percent but at the lowest rhythm in five years.

clip_image014

Chart VC-GDP, China, Gross Domestic Product, Million Yuan and ∆%

Source: National bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart VC-FXR provides China’s foreign exchange reserves. FX reserves grew from $2399.2 billion in 2009 to $38430 billion in 2013 driven by high growth of China’s trade surplus, decreasing to $30105 billion in 2016.

clip_image015

Chart VC-FXR, China, Foreign Exchange Reserves, 2012-2016

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Chart VC-Trade provides China’s imports and exports. Exports exceeded imports with resulting large trade balance surpluses that increased foreign exchange reserves.

clip_image016

Chart VC-Trade, China, Imports and Exports of Goods, 2012-2016, $100 Million US Dollars

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Chart VC-PCDI provides the level and growth rates of per capita disposable income in China.

clip_image017

Chart VC-PCDI, China, Level and Growth Rates of Per Capita Disposable Income

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

The Caixin Flash China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) compiled by Markit (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/883014a121534f51bc42e5060845f727) is mixed. The overall Flash Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI™ decreased from 47.3 in Aug to 47.0 in Sep, while the Flash Caixin China General Manufacturing Output Index decreased from 46.4 in Aug to 45.7 in Sep, indicating weaker conditions. He Fan, Chief Economist at Caixin Insight Group finds need of fiscal and monetary policy (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/883014a121534f51bc42e5060845f727). The Caixin China General Services PMI™, compiled by Markit, shows that the Caixin Composite Output, combining manufacturing and services, decreased from 53.2 in Nov to 52.6 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/38427e629ce045399085c7ea6554a086). Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at CEBM Group, finds slower services (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/38427e629ce045399085c7ea6554a086). The Caixin General Manufacturing PMI™ decreased to 51.5 in Dec from 51.8 in Nov, indicating improving conditions in manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/e23eb5ee069c4ec997419b9e5b290f8f). Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at CEBM Group, finds moderate growth conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/e23eb5ee069c4ec997419b9e5b290f8f). Table CNY provides the country data table for China.

Table CNY, China, Economic Indicators

Price Indexes for Industry

Nov 12-month ∆%: -1.4

Nov month ∆%: -0.1
Blog 12/15/19

Consumer Price Index

Nov 12-month ∆%: 4.5 Nov month ∆%: 0.4
Blog 12/15/19

Value Added of Industry

Oct month ∆%: 0.78

Jan-Nov 2019/Jan-Nov 2018 ∆%: 5.6

Earlier Data
Blog 4/19/15

GDP Growth Rate

Year-on-Year IIIQ2019 ∆%: 6.0

III Quarter 2019 ∆%: 1.5
Quarter IIIQ2019 AE ∆%: 6.1
Blog 11/3/19

Investment in Fixed Assets

Total Jan-Nov 2019 ∆%: 5.2

Real estate development: 10.2

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/19/15

Retail Sales

Nov month ∆%: 0.80
Jan-Nov 2019 ∆%: 8.0

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/19/15

Trade Balance

Nov 2019 Balance $38.73 billion

Nov 2018 $41.86 billion

Exports 12M ∆% -1.1

Imports 12M ∆% 0.3

Dec 2018 balance 57.06 billion
Exports 12M ∆% -4.4
Imports 12M ∆% -7.6

Dec 2017 balance $53.85 billion

2018 Exports ∆% 9.9

2018 Imports ∆% 15.8

2017 Exports ∆% 7.9

2017 Imports ∆% 15.9

2016 Exports ∆% 11.3

2016 Imports ∆% 17.3

Cumulative Dec 2018: $351.76

Cumulative Dec 2017: $422.50 billion

Cumulative Dec 2016: $486.0

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/19/15

Links to blog comments in Table CNY: 12/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/increase-in-valuations-of-risk_14.html

11/17/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial_16.html

11/3/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/decrease-of-fomc-policy-rate-monetary.html

10/20/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/dollar-depreciation-fluctuating.html

9/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/competitive-exchange-rate-and-interest.html

7/28/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/dollar-appreciation-in-anticipations-of.html

7/14/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/fomc-uncertain-outlook-frank-h-knights.html

4/28/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/04/high-levels-of-valuations-of-risk.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

VD Euro Area. Using calendar and seasonally adjusted chain-linked volumes (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of the euro area (19 countries) fell 5.7 percent from IQ2008 to IIQ2009. The GDP of the euro area (19 countries) increased 15.2 percent from IIIQ2009 to IIIQ2019 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.4 percent. The GDP of the euro area (19 countries) is higher by 8.6 percent in IIIQ2019 relative to the pre-recession peak in IQ2008, growing at annual equivalent rate of 0.7 percent. The GDP of the euro area (18) countries increased at the average yearly rate of 2.3 percent from IQ1999 to IQ2008 while that of the euro area (19 countries) increased at 2.3 percent. The GDP of the euro area (19 countries) grew at 2.3 percent annual equivalent from IQ1999 to the pre-recession peak in IQ2008. The GDP of the euro area would grow under trend of 2.3 percent from €2,614,693.8 million in IQ2008 to €3,396,179.4 million in IIIQ2019. The estimate of GDP of €2,840,462.4 million in IIIQ2019 is 16.4 percent below trend. Table VD-EUR provides yearly growth rates of the combined GDP of the members of the European Monetary Union (EMU) or euro area since 1999. Growth was very strong at 3.2 percent in 2006 and 3.0 percent in 2007. The global recession had strong impact with growth of only 0.4 percent in 2008 and decline of 4.5 percent in 2009. Recovery was at lower growth rates of 2.1 percent in 2010 and 1.5 percent in 2011. EUROSTAT estimates growth of GDP of the euro area of minus 0.9 percent in 2012 and minus 0.3 percent in 2013. Euro Area GDP grew 1.2 percent in 2014 and grew 2.0 percent in 2015. The GDP of the euro area grew 1.7 percent in 2016.

Table VD-EUR, Euro Area, Yearly Percentage Change of Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, Unemployment and GDP ∆%

Year

HICP ∆%

Unemployment
%

GDP ∆%

1999

1.2

9.7

3.0

2000

2.2

8.9

3.8

2001

2.4

8.3

2.1

2002

2.3

8.6

1.0

2003

2.1

9.1

0.7

2004

2.2

9.3

2.3

2005

2.2

9.1

1.7

2006

2.2

8.4

3.2

2007

2.2

7.5

3.0

2008

3.3

7.6

0.4

2009

0.3

9.6

-4.5

2010

1.6

10.2

2.1

2011

2.7

10.2

1.5

2012

2.5

11.4

-0.9

2013

1.3

12.0

-0.3

2014

0.4

11.6

1.2

2015

0.0

10.9

2.0

2016

0.2

10.0

1.7

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

The GDP of the euro area in 2015 in current US dollars in the dataset of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is $11,990.9 billion or 16.3 percent of world GDP of $73,598.8 billion (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/02/weodata/index.aspx). The sum of the GDP of France $2420.2 billion with the GDP of Germany of $3365.3 billion, Italy of $1815.8 billion and Spain $1199.7 billion is $8,801.0 billion or 73.4 percent of total euro area GDP and 13.1 percent of World GDP. The four largest economies account for slightly more than three quarters of economic activity of the euro area. Table VD-EUR1 is constructed with the dataset of EUROSTAT, providing growth rates of the euro area as a whole and of the largest four economies of Germany, France, Italy and Spain annually from 1996 to 2016. The impact of the global recession on the overall euro area economy and on the four largest economies was quite strong. There was sharp contraction in 2009 and growth rates have not rebounded to earlier growth with exception of Germany in 2010 and 2011.

Table VD-EUR1, Euro Area, Real GDP Growth Rate, ∆%

Euro Area

Germany

France

Italy

Spain

2016

1.7

1.9

1.2

0.9

3.2

2015

2.0

1.7

1.3

0.8

3.2

2014

1.2

1.6

0.6

0.1

1.4

2013

-0.3

0.5

0.6

-1.7

-1.7

2012

-0.9

0.5

0.2

-2.8

-2.9

2011

1.5

3.7

2.1

0.6

-1.0

2010

2.1

4.1

2.0

1.7

0.0

2009

-4.5

-5.6

-2.9

-5.5

-3.6

2008

0.4

1.1

0.2

-1.1

1.1

2007

3.0

3.3

2.4

1.5

3.8

2006

3.2

3.7

2.4

2.0

4.2

2005

1.7

0.7

1.6

0.9

3.7

2004

2.3

1.2

2.8

1.6

3.2

2003

0.7

-0.7

0.8

0.2

3.2

2002

1.0

0.0

1.1

0.2

2.9

2001

2.1

1.7

2.0

1.8

4.0

2000

3.8

3.0

3.9

3.7

5.3

1999

3.0

2.0

3.4

1.6

4.5

1998

2.9

2.0

3.6

1.6

4.3

Average 1999-2016

1.2

1.3

1.3

0.3

1.7

Average 1999-2007

2.2

1.6

2.1

1.5

3.8

Average 2016-2007

0.3

1.0

0.6

-7.0*

-0.5*

1997

2.6

1.8

2.3

1.8

3.7

1996

1.6

0.8

1.4

1.3

2.7

Note: Absolute percentage change

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

The Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index of the HIS Markit Flash Eurozone PMI®, combining activity in manufacturing and services, did not change from 50.6 in Nov to 50.6 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/744e10d0074244fd8f007451da9de4f8). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds that the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI index suggests GDP growth about 0.1 percent quarterly with decline of manufacturing and weakness of services (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/744e10d0074244fd8f007451da9de4f8). The IHS Markit Eurozone PMI® Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing activity with close association with GDP increased from 50.6 in Nov to 50.9 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/39dc7f18e8f04b16b790298e7dbbd06e). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds slower potential for quarterly growth at around 0.1 percent in GDP (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/39dc7f18e8f04b16b790298e7dbbd06e). The IHS Markit Eurozone Services Business Activity Index increased from 51.9 in Nov to 52.8 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/39dc7f18e8f04b16b790298e7dbbd06e). The IHS Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI® decreased from 46.9 in Nov to 46.3 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/dcbe553bbebf421980b10e8f906d95ac). New export orders decreased. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds manufacturing declining quarterly at 1.5 percent (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/dcbe553bbebf421980b10e8f906d95ac). Table EUR provides the data table for the euro area.

Table EUR, Euro Area Economic Indicators

GDP

IIIQ2019 ∆% 0.2; IIIQ2019/IIIQ2018 ∆% 1.2 Blog 9/13/15 11/22/15 12/13/15 2/14/16 3/13/16 5/1/16 5/15/16 6/12/16 8/7/16 8/14/16 9/11/16 11/20/16 12/11/16 02/26/17 3/12/17 5/21/17 6/11/17 8/20/17 9/10/17 11/26/17 12/10/17 2/18/18 3/11/18 5/20/18 6/10/18 8/19/18 9/16/18 11/18/18 12/16/18 3/10/19 5/26/19 6/9/19 9/15/19 12/29/19

Unemployment 

Nov 2019: 7.5 % unemployment rate; Nov 2019: 12.315 million unemployed

Blog 1/12/20

HICP

Nov month ∆%: -0.3

12 months Nov ∆%: 1.0
Blog 12/29/19

Producer Prices

Euro Zone industrial producer prices Nov ∆%: 0.2
Nov 12-month ∆%: -1.4
Blog 1/12/20

Industrial Production

Oct Month ∆%: -0.5; 12 months ∆%: -2.2

Earlier Data:
Blog 5/19/15

Retail Sales

Nov month ∆%: 1.0
Nov 12 months ∆%: 2.2

Earlier Data:
Blog 3/15/15

Confidence and Economic Sentiment Indicator

Sentiment 101.5 Dec 2019

Consumer -8.1 Dec 2019

Earlier Data:

Blog 4/5/15

Trade

Jan-Oct 2019/Jan-Oct 2018 Exports ∆%: 3.1
Imports ∆%: 2.0

Oct 2019 12-month Exports ∆% 4.1 Imports ∆% -3.2

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/19/15

Links to blog comments in Table EUR: 12/29/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/diverging-economic-conditions-and.html

12/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/increase-in-valuations-of-risk_14.html

12/8/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/increase-in-valuations-of-risk.html

1/24/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/oscillating-risk-financial-assets-world.html

11/10/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

11/3/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/decrease-of-fomc-policy-rate-monetary.html

10/20/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/dollar-depreciation-fluctuating.html

10/6/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/volatility-of-valuations-of-risk.html

9/22/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/uncertain-fomc-outlook-of-monetary.html

9/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/competitive-exchange-rate-and-interest.html

9/8/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/increase-in-valuations-of-risk.html

8/25/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/contraction-of-valuations-of-risk.html

8/4/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/dollar-appreciation-contraction-of.html

7/21/2019 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/global-manufacturing-stress-world.html

7/7/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/twenty-million-unemployed-or.html

6/9/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/06/increase-of-valuations-of-risk.html

5/26/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/05/contraction-of-risk-financial-assets.html

3/10/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/03/dollar-revaluation-twenty-one-million.html

12/16/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/12/slowing-world-economic-growth-and.html

9/16/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/09/recovery-without-hiring-in-lost.html

8/19/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/08/world-inflation-waves-lost-economic.html

6/10/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

5/20/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/dollar-revaluation-united-states_24.html

3/11/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/twenty-three-million-unemployed-or.html

2/18/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/united-states-inflation-trend-or.html

12/10/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

11/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/11/the-lost-economic-cycle-of-global_25.html

9/10/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

8/20/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

6/11/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/flattening-us-treasury-yield-curve.html

5/21/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/dollar-devaluation-world-inflation.html

3/12/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/increasing-interest-rates-twenty-four.html

2/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

12/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/rising-values-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/20/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/interest-rate-increase-could-well.html

11/13/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/dollar-revaluation-and-valuations-of.html

11/6/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/the-case-for-increase-in-federal-funds.html

9/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/interest-rate-uncertainty-and-valuation.html

8/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

8/7/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/global-competitive-easing-or.html

6/12/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/considerable-uncertainty-about-economic.html

5/15/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

5/1/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/economic-activity-appears-to-have.html

3/13/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/monetary-policy-and-fluctuations-of_13.html

3/6/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/twenty-five-million-unemployed-or.html

2/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/subdued-foreign-growth-and-dollar.html

12/13/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/liftoff-of-interest-rates-with-volatile_17.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

EUROSTAT estimates the rate of unemployment in the euro area at 7.5 percent in Nov

2019, as shown in Table VD-1. The number of unemployed in Nov 2019 was 12.315 million, which was lower by 0.624 million than 12.939 million in Nov 2018. The rate of unemployment fell from 7.9 percent in Nov 2018 to 7.5 percent in Nov 2019.

Table VD-1, Euro Area, Unemployment Rate and Number of Unemployed, % and Millions, SA 

Unemployment Rate %

Number Unemployed
Millions

Nov 2019

7.5

12.315

Oct

7.5

12.325

Sep

7.6

12.376

Aug

7.5

12.346

Jul

7.6

12.418

Jun

7.5

12.365

May

7.6

12.416

Apr

7.6

12.485

Mar

7.7

12.549

Feb

7.8

12.700

Jan

7.8

12.781

Dec 2018

7.8

12.836

Nov

7.9

12.939

Oct

8.0

13.096

Sep

8.0

13.082

Aug

8.0

13.126

Jul

8.1

13.218

Jun

8.2

13.433

May

8.3

13.489

Apr

8.4

13.692

Mar

8.5

13.820

Feb

8.5

13.917

Jan

8.6

14.069

Dec 2017

8.6

14.084

Nov

8.7

14.194

Oct

8.8

14.306

Sep

8.9

14.471

Aug

9.0

14.632

Jul

9.0

14.740

Jun

9.1

14.735

May

9.2

14.933

Apr

9.2

14.979

Mar

9.4

15.223

Feb

9.4

15.315

Jan

9.6

15.503

Dec 2016

9.6

15.647

Nov

9.8

15.839

Oct

9.8

15.843

Sep

9.9

16.015

Aug

9.9

16.051

Jul

10.0

16.201

Jun

10.1

16.406

May

10.2

16.480

Apr

10.2

16.590

Mar

10.2

16.573

Feb

10.3

16.738

Jan

10.4

16.720

Dec 2015

10.4

16.847

Nov

10.5

16.861

Oct

10.6

17.053

Sep

10.6

17.068

Aug

10.7

17.146

Jul

10.8

17.327

Jun

11.0

17.680

May

11.1

17.767

Apr

11.1

17.850

Mar

11.2

17.977

Feb

11.2

17.983

Jan

11.3

18.111

Dec 2014

11.3

18.232

Nov

11.5

18.514

Oct

11.5

18.509

Sep

11.5

18.500

Aug

11.5

18.402

Jul

11.6

18.601

Jun

11.5

18.477

May

11.7

18.707

Apr

11.7

18.758

Mar

11.8

18.917

Feb

11.9

19.015

Jan

11.9

19.087

Dec 2013

11.9

19.035

Nov

11.9

19.100

Oct

12.0

19.159

Sep

12.0

19.303

Aug

12.0

19.274

Jul

12.0

19.323

Jun

12.1

19.344

May

12.1

19.345

Apr

12.1

19.376

Mar

12.0

19.290

Feb

12.1

19.318

Jan

12.0

19.253

Dec 2012

11.9

19.039

Nov

11.8

18.937

Oct

11.7

18.821

Sep

11.6

18.594

Aug

11.5

18.440

Jul

11.5

18.360

Jun

11.4

18.232

May

11.3

18.070

Apr

11.2

17.902

Mar

11.1

17.698

Feb

10.9

17.434

Jan

10.8

17.198

Dec 2011

10.7

17.091

Nov

10.6

16.894

Oct

10.5

16.656

Sep

10.4

16.506

Aug

10.2

16.271

Jul 

10.2

16.119

Jun

10.0

15.930

May

10.0

15.850

Apr

9.9

15.775

Mar

10.0

15.880

Feb

10.0

15.895

Jan

10.1

15.979

Dec 2010

10.1

16.039

Source: EUROSTAT

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

Table VD-2 shows the disparity in rates of unemployment in the euro area with 7.5 percent for the region as a whole and 12.315 million unemployed but 3.1 percent for Germany and 1.357 million unemployed. At the other extreme is Spain with rate of unemployment of 14.1 percent and 3.255 million unemployed. The rate of unemployment of the European Union in Nov 2019 is 6.3 percent with 15.582 million unemployed.

Table VD-2, Unemployed and Unemployment Rate in Countries and Regions, Millions and %

Nov 2019

Unemployment Rate %

Unemployed Millions

Euro Zone

7.5

12.315

Germany

3.1

1.357

France

8.4

2.500

Netherlands

3.5

0.324

Finland

6.7

0.184

Portugal

6.7

0.347

Ireland

4.8

0.118

Italy

9.7

2.535

Greece

16.8*

0.792*

Spain

14.1

3.255

Belgium

5.2

0.262

European Union

6.3

15.582

*Sep 2019

Source: EUROSTAT

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

Chart VD-1 of EUROSTAT illustrates the wide difference in rates of unemployment in countries and regions.

clip_image018

Chart VD-1, Unemployment Rate in Various Countries and Regions

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

VE Germany. Table VE-DE provides yearly growth rates of the German economy from 1971 to 2018, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked (https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2019/11/PE19_448_811.html). Germany’s GDP fell 5.7 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.1 percent in 2008. Recovery had been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.2 percent in 2010, 3.9 percent in 2011 and 0.4 percent in 2012. Growth stabilized to 0.4 percent in 2013, increasing to 2.2 percent in 2014. The German economy grew at 1.7 percent in 2015 and grew at 2.2 percent in 2016. Germany’s GDP increased 2.5 percent in 2017 and increased 1.5 percent in 2018.

The Federal Statistical Agency of Germany analyzes the fall and recovery of the German economy in its earlier website (http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Content/Statistics/VolkswirtschaftlicheGesamtrechnungen/Inlandsprodukt/Aktuell,templateId=renderPrint.psml):

“The German economy again grew strongly in 2011. The price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.0% compared with the previous year. Accordingly, the catching-up process of the German economy continued during the second year after the economic crisis. In the course of 2011, the price-adjusted GDP again exceeded its pre-crisis level. The economic recovery occurred mainly in the first half of 2011. In 2009, Germany experienced the most serious post-war recession, when GDP suffered a historic decline of 5.1%. The year 2010 was characterised by a rapid economic recovery (+3.7%).”

Table VE-DE, Germany, GDP ∆% on Prior Year

Price Adjusted Chain-Linked

Price- and Calendar-Adjusted Chain Linked

Average ∆% 1991-2017

1.4

Average ∆% 1991-2018

1.4

Average ∆% 1991-1999

1.4

Average ∆% 2000-2007

1.3

Average ∆% 2003-2007

2.2

Average ∆% 2007-2018

1.3

Average ∆% 2009-2018

2.1

2018

1.5

1.5

2017

2.5

2.8

2016

2.2

2.1

2015

1.7

1.5

2014

2.2

2.2

2013

0.4

0.5

2012

0.4

0.6

2011

3.9

4.0

2010

4.2

4.0

2009

-5.7

-5.6

2008

1.0

0.7

2007

3.0

3.1

2006

3.8

4.0

2005

0.7

0.9

2004

1.2

0.7

2003

-0.7

-0.7

2002

-0.2

-0.2

2001

1.7

1.8

2000

2.9

3.1

1999

1.9

1.7

1998

2.0

1.8

1997

1.8

1.9

1996

0.8

0.8

1995

1.5

1.6

1994

2.4

2.5

1993

-1.0

-1.0

1992

1.9

1.5

1991

5.1

5.2

1990

5.3

5.5

1989

3.9

4.0

1988

3.7

3.4

1987

1.4

1.3

1986

2.3

2.3

1985

2.3

2.6

1984

2.8

2.9

1983

1.6

1.5

1982

-0.4

-0.5

1981

0.5

0.6

1980

1.4

1.3

1979

4.2

4.3

1978

3.0

3.1

1977

3.3

3.5

1976

4.9

4.5

1975

-0.9

-0.9

1974

0.9

1.0

1973

4.8

5.0

1972

4.3

4.3

1971

3.1

3.0

1970

NA

NA

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2019/11/PE19_448_811.html

The Flash Germany Composite Output Index of the IHS Markit Flash Germany PMI®, combining manufacturing and services, did not change from 48.9 in Nov to 49.9 in Dec. The index of manufacturing output reached 44.6 in Dec, decreasing from 45.2 in Nov, while the index of services increased to 52.0 in Dec from 51.7 in Nov. The overall Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI® decreased from 44.1 in Nov to 43.4 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/b77ede1d579b4a3ea5d919ff161f6ae6). New orders decreased and new export orders decreased. Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit, finds weak manufacturing of Germany with growing services (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/b77ede1d579b4a3ea5d919ff161f6ae6). The IHS Markit Germany Composite Output Index of the IHS Markit Germany Services PMI®, combining manufacturing and services with close association with Germany’s GDP, increased from 49.4 in Nov to 50.2 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/31721554979143e0aff49d224e2b0a3b). Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit, finds improving conditions of Germany (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/31721554979143e0aff49d224e2b0a3b). The Germany Services Business Activity Index increased from 51.7 in Nov to 52.9 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/31721554979143e0aff49d224e2b0a3b). The IHS Markit/BME Germany Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®), showing close association with Germany’s manufacturing conditions, decreased from 44.1 in Nov to 43.7 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/c2f473eeeca242e0963096d2aa0a0e61). New export orders decreased. Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit, finds weak conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/c2f473eeeca242e0963096d2aa0a0e61). Table DE provides the country data table for Germany.

Table DE, Germany, Economic Indicators

GDP

IIIQ2019 0.1 ∆%; IIIQ2019/IIIQ2018 NCSA ∆% 1.0 CA 0.5

2016/2015: 2.2 CA 2.1

2017/2016: 2.5 CA 2.8

2018/2017: 1.5 CA 1.5

GDP ∆% 1970-2018

Blog 8/26/12 5/27/12 11/25/12 2/24/13 5/19/13 5/26/13 8/18/13 8/25/13 11/17/13 11/24/13 1/26/14 2/16/14 3/2/14 5/18/14 5/25/14 8/17/14 9/7/14 11/16/14 11/30/14 2/15/15 3/1/15 5/17/15 5/24/15 8/16/15 8/30/15 11/22/15 11/29/15 2/14/16 2/28/16 5/15/16 5/29/16 8/14/16 8/28/16 11/20/16 11/27/16 2/19/17 02/26/17 05/14/17 5/28/17 8/20/17 8/27/17 11/26/17 2/18/18 2/25/18 5/20/18 5/27/18 8/19/18 9/2/18 11/18/18 11/25/18 4/14/19 5/26/19 9/1/19 12/1/19

Consumer Price Index

Nov month NSA ∆%: -0.8
Nov 12-month NSA ∆%: 1.2
Blog 1/20/19 12/15/19 12/29/19

Producer Price Index

Nov month 0.0 12 months -0.4
Blog 3/17/19 1/12/20

Industrial Production

MFG Production Nov month CSA ∆%: -0.6
12-month NSA: NA -7.4

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/12/15

Machine Orders

MF Nov month ∆%: -1.6
Nov 12-month ∆%: -9.1

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/12/15

Retail Sales

Nov Month ∆% 1.7

12-Month ∆% 2.8

Earlier Data:

Blog 4/5/15

Employment Report

Unemployment Rate SA Nov 3.1%
Blog 1/12/20

Trade Balance

Exports Nov 12-month NSA ∆%: -2.9
Imports Nov 12 months NSA ∆%: -1.6
Exports Nov month CSA ∆%: -2.3; Imports Nov month CSA -0.5

Earlier Data:

Blog 4/12/15

Links to blog comments in Table DE: 12/29/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/diverging-economic-conditions-and.html

12/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/increase-in-valuations-of-risk_14.html

12/8/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/increase-in-valuations-of-risk.html

12/1/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

11/24/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/oscillating-risk-financial-assets-world.html

11/3/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/decrease-of-fomc-policy-rate-monetary.html

10/27/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial_26.html

10/20/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/dollar-depreciation-fluctuating.html

10/6/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/volatility-of-valuations-of-risk.html

9/29/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/dollar-appreciation-decreasing.html

9/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/competitive-exchange-rate-and-interest.html

9/8/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/increase-in-valuations-of-risk.html

9/1/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/revaluation-of-us-dollar-falling-yields.html

8/25/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/contraction-of-valuations-of-risk.html

8/18/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/global-decline-of-yields-of-government.html

8/4/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/dollar-appreciation-contraction-of.html

7/14/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/fomc-uncertain-outlook-frank-h-knights.html

7/7/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/twenty-million-unemployed-or.html

6/2/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/06/contraction-of-risk-financial-assets.html

5/26/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/05/contraction-of-risk-financial-assets.html

5/5/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

4/14/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/04/recovery-without-hiring-labor.html

1/20/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/01/world-inflation-waves-world-financial_24.html

11/25/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/11/weaker-world-economic-growth-with.html

11/18/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/11/weakening-gdp-growth-in-major-economies.html

9/2/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/09/revision-of-united-states-national.html

8/19/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/08/world-inflation-waves-lost-economic.html

5/27/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/dollar-strengthening-world-inflation.html

5/20/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/dollar-revaluation-united-states_24.html

2/25/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

2/18/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/united-states-inflation-trend-or.html

11/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/11/the-lost-economic-cycle-of-global_25.html

8/27/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/dollar-devaluation-and-interest-rate.html

5/28/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

5/14/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million_14.html

2/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

02/19/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

11/27/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/dollar-revaluation-rising-yields-and.html

11/20/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/interest-rate-increase-could-well.html

11/13/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/dollar-revaluation-and-valuations-of.html

11/6/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/the-case-for-increase-in-federal-funds.html

8/28/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/and-as-ever-economic-outlook-is.html

8/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

5/29/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/appropriate-for-fed-to-increase.html

5/15/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

2/28/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

2/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/subdued-foreign-growth-and-dollar.html

11/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/dollar-revaluation-constraining.html

11/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-liftoff-followed-by.html

08/30/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/fluctuations-of-global-financial.html

08/16/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/exchange-rate-and-financial-asset.html

5/24/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/interest-rate-policy-and-dollar.html

5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

9/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/competitive-monetary-policy-and.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

1/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/01/capital-flows-exchange-rates-and.html

11/24/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html

8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

Germany’s labor market continues to show strength not found in most of the advanced economies, as shown in Table VE-1A. The number unemployed, not seasonally adjusted, decreased from 1.40 million in Nov 2018 to 1.36 million in Oct 2019, or 2.9 percent, while the unemployment rate decreased from 3.2 percent in Nov 2018 to 3.1 percent in Nov 2019. The number of persons in employment, not seasonally adjusted, increased from 42.14 million in Nov 2018 to 42.27 million in Nov 2019, or 0.3 percent, while the employment rate increased from 68.1 percent in Nov 2018 to 68.2 percent in Nov 2019. The number unemployed, seasonally adjusted, did not change from 1.36 million in Nov 2019 to 1.36 million in Nov 2019, while the unemployment rate did not change from 3.1 percent in Oct 2019 to 3.1 percent in Nov 2019. The number of persons in employment, seasonally adjusted did not change significantly from 42.14 million in Oct 2019 to 42.16 million in Nov 2019, or 0.0 percent. The employment rate seasonally increased from 67.9 in Oct 2019 to 68.0 in Nov 2019.

Table VE-1A, Germany, Unemployment Labor Force Survey

Nov 2019

Oct 2019

Nov 2018

NSA

Number
Unemployed Millions

1.36

∆% Nov 2019 /Oct 2019:

2.3

∆% Nov 2019/Nov 2018: -2.9

1.33

1.40

% Rate Unemployed

3.1

3.0

3.2

Persons in Employment Millions

42.27

∆% Nov 2019/ Oct 2019: -0.2

∆% Nov 2019/ Nov 2018: 0.3

42.37

42.14

Employment Rate

68.2

68.3

68.1

SA

Number
Unemployed Millions

1.36

∆% Nov 2019/Oct 2019: 0.0

∆% Nov 2019/Nov 2018: –4.2

1.36

1.42

% Rate Unemployed

3.1

3.1

3.3

Persons in Employment Millions

42.16

∆% Nov 2019/Oct 2019: 0.0

∆% Nov 2019/Nov 2018: 0.7

42.14

41.87

Employment Rate

68.0

67.9

67.7

NSA: not seasonally adjusted; SA: seasonally adjusted

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/01/PE20_002_132.html

Table VE-2A provides the unemployment rate in Germany, seasonally adjusted (SA) but not calendar adjusted (NCA), available in the data bank of EUROSTAT. There is significant decrease from 10.7 percent in Dec 2005 to 3.1 percent in Nov 2019.

Table VE-2A, Germany, Unemployment Rate in Percent of Labor Force, SA NCA, Eurostat Data Bank

Nov 2019

3.1

Oct

3.1

Sep

3.1

Aug

3.1

Jul

3.1

Jun

3.1

May

3.1

Apr

3.2

Mar

3.2

Feb

3.2

Jan

3.2

Dec 2018

3.2

Nov

3.3

Oct

3.3

Sep

3.3

Aug

3.4

Jul

3.4

Jun

3.4

May

3.4

Apr

3.4

Mar

3.5

Feb

3.5

Jan

3.5

Dec 2017

3.6

Nov

3.6

Oct

3.6

Sep

3.7

Aug

3.7

Jul

3.7

Jun

3.8

May

3.8

Apr

3.9

Mar

3.9

Feb

3.9

Jan

3.9

Dec 2016

3.9

Nov

3.9

Oct

4.0

Sep

4.0

Aug

4.1

Jul

4.2

Jun

4.2

May

4.3

Apr

4.3

Mar

4.3

Feb

4.3

Jan

4.4

Dec 2015

4.4

Nov

4.5

Oct

4.5

Sep

4.5

Aug

4.6

Jul

4.6

Jun

4.7

May

4.7

Apr

4.7

Mar

4.7

Feb

4.8

Jan

4.8

Dec 2014

4.9

Nov

4.9

Oct

5.0

Sep

5.0

Aug

5.0

Jul

5.0

Jun

5.0

May

5.0

Apr

5.0

Mar

5.1

Feb

5.1

Jan

5.1

Dec 2013

5.1

Nov

5.1

Oct

5.1

Sep

5.2

Aug

5.2

Jul

5.2

Jun

5.2

May

5.3

Apr

5.3

Mar

5.4

Feb

5.4

Jan

5.4

Dec 2012

5.3

Nov

5.3

Oct

5.3

Sep

5.3

Aug

5.3

Jul

5.4

Jun

5.4

May

5.4

Apr

5.4

Mar

5.4

Feb

5.4

Jan

5.5

Dec 2011

5.5

Nov

5.6

Oct

5.6

Sep

5.7

Aug

5.7

Jul

5.8

Jun

5.8

May

5.9

Apr

6.0

Mar

6.1

Feb

6.2

Jan

6.4

Dec 2010

6.5

Dec 2009

7.5

Dec 2008

7.2

Dec 2007

8.1

Dec 2006

9.4

Dec 2005

10.7

Source: Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

The unemployment rate in Germany as percent of the labor force in Table VE-2A stood at 6.5 percent in Sep, Oct and Nov 2012, increasing to 6.7 percent in Dec 2012, 7.4 percent in Jan 2013, 7.3 in Mar 2013 and 7.1 percent in Apr 2013. The unemployment rate fell to 6.8 percent in May 2013 and 6.6 percent in Jun 2013 and rose to 6.8 percent in Jul-Aug 2013. The rate fell to 6.6 percent in Sep 2013 and 6.5 percent in Oct 2013 and Nov 2013. The unemployment rate increased to 6.7 percent in Dec 2013 and 7.3 percent in Jan 2013. The unemployment rate reached 7.3 percent in Feb 2014 and 7.1 percent in Mar 2014. The unemployment rate fell to 6.8 percent in Apr 2014 and 6.6 percent in May 2014. The unemployment rate fell to 6.5 percent in Jun 2014, increasing to 6.6 percent in Jun 2014 and 6.7 percent in Aug 2014. The unemployment rate fell to 6.5 percent in Sep 2014 and 6.3 percent in Oct 2014 and Nov 2014. The unemployment rate increased to 6.4 percent in Dec 2014 and 7.0 percent in Jan 2015, falling to 6.9 percent in Feb 2015 and 6.5 percent in Apr 2015. The unemployment rate fell to 6.3 percent in May 2015 and 6.2 percent in Jun 2015. The unemployment rate increased to 6.3 percent in Jul 2015 and 6.4 percent in Aug 2015. The unemployment rate fell from 6.4 percent in Aug 2015 to 6.1 percent in Dec 2015, increasing to 6.7 percent in Jan 2016. The unemployment rate fell to 6.6 percent in Feb 2016 and 6.5 percent in Mar 2016. The unemployment rate fell to 6.3 percent in Apr 2016, decreasing to 6.0 percent in May 2016. The unemployment rate fell to 5.9 percent in Jun 2016, increasing to 6.0 percent in Jul 2016. The unemployment rate increased to 6.1 percent in Aug 2016, moving to 6.1 percent in Aug 2016 and 5.9 percent in Sep 2016. The rate decreased to 5.7 percent in Nov 2016, increasing to 5.8 in Dec 2016 and 6.3 percent in Jan 2017. The rate stabilized at 6.3 percent in Feb 2017. The unemployment rate fell to 6.0 percent in Mar 2017 and fell to 5.8 percent in Apr 2017. The unemployment rate fell to 5.6 percent in May 2017 and fell to 5.5 percent in Jun 2017, decreasing to 5.5 percent in Sep 2017. The unemployment rate increased to 5.6 percent in Jul 2017, increasing to 5.7 percent in Aug 2017. The unemployment rate decreased to 5.5 percent in Sep 2017 decreasing to 5.4 percent in Oct 2017 and to 5.3 percent in Nov 2017. The unemployment rate stabilized at 5.3 percent in Dec 2017, increasing to 5.8 in Jan 2018. The unemployment rate fell to 5.7 percent in Feb 2018, decreasing to 5.5 percent in Mar 2018. The unemployment rate fell to 5.3 percent in Apr 2018, decreasing to 5.1 percent in May 2018. The unemployment rate fell to 5.0 percent in Jun 2018. The unemployment rate increased to 5.1 percent in Jul 2018, increasing to 5.2 percent in Aug 2018. The unemployment rate decreased to 5.0 percent in Sep 2018. The unemployment decreased to 4.9 percent in Oct 2018. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.8 percent in Nov 2018, increasing to 4.9 percent in Dec 2018. The unemployment rate increased to 5.3 percent in Jan 2019 and stabilized at 5.3 percent in Feb 2019. The rate is much lower than 11.1 percent in 2005 and 9.6 percent in 2006.

Table VE-2A, Germany, Unemployment Rate in Percent of Labor Force

Feb 2019

5.3

Jan

5.3

Dec 2018

4.9

Nov

4.8

Oct

4.9

Sep

5.0

Aug

5.2

Jul

5.1

Jun

5.0

May

5.1

Apr

5.3

Mar

5.5

Feb

5.7

Jan

5.8

Dec 2017

5.3

Nov

5.3

Oct

5.4

Sep

5.5

Aug

5.7

Jul

5.6

Jun

5.5

May

5.6

Apr

5.8

Mar

6.0

Feb

6.3

Jan

6.3

Dec 2016

5.8

Nov

5.7

Oct

5.8

Sep

5.9

Aug

6.1

Jul

6.0

Jun

5.9

May

6.0

Apr

6.3

Mar

6.5

Feb

6.6

Jan

6.7

Dec 2015

6.1

Nov

6.0

Oct

6.0

Sep

6.2

Aug

6.4

Jul

6.3

Jun

6.2

May

6.3

Apr

6.5

Mar

6.8

Feb

6.9

Jan

7.0

Dec 2014

6.4

Nov

6.3

Oct

6.3

Sep

6.5

Aug

6.7

Jul

6.6

Jun

6.5

May

6.6

Apr

6.8

Mar

7.1

Feb

7.3

Jan

7.3

Dec 2013

6.7

Nov

6.5

Oct

6.5

Sep

6.6

Aug

6.8

Jul

6.8

Jun

6.6

May

6.8

Apr

7.1

Mar

7.3

Feb

7.4

Jan

7.4

Dec 2012

6.7

Nov

6.5

Oct

6.5

Sep

6.5

Aug

6.8

Jul

6.8

Jun

6.6

May

6.7

Apr

7.0

Mar

7.2

Feb

7.4

Jan

7.3

Dec 2011

6.6

Nov

6.4

Oct

6.5

Sep

6.6

Aug

7.0

Jul

7.0

Jun

6.9

May

7.0

Apr

7.3

Mar

7.6

Feb

7.9

Jan

7.9

Dec 2010

7.1

Dec 2009

7.8

Dec 2008

7.4

Dec 2007

8.1

Dec 2006

9.6

Dec 2005

11.1

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-1A shows the long-term decline of the rate of unemployment in Germany from more than 12 percent in early 2005 to 6.6 percent in Dec 2011, increasing to 6.7 percent in Dec 2012, 6.8 percent in Apr 2013 and 6.6 percent in May 2013. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 6.8 percent in Aug 2013, falling to 6.6 percent in Sep 2013 and 6.5 percent in Oct 2013. The rate remained at 6.5 percent in Nov 2013, increasing to 6.7 percent in Dec 2013 and 7.3 in Jan 2014. The rate remained at 7.3 percent in Feb 2014, declining to 7.1 percent in Mar 2014. The rate fell to 6.8 percent in Apr 2014, 6.6 percent in May 2014 and 6.5 percent in Jun 2014. The rate increased to 6.6 percent in Jul 2014 and 6.7 percent in Aug 2014, falling to 6.5 percent in Sep 2014. The rate fell to 6.3 percent in Oct 2014 and 6.3 percent in Nov 2014, increasing to 6.4 percent in Dec 2014. The rate increased to 7.0 percent in Jan 2015, falling to 6.9 percent in Feb 2015 and 6.8 percent in Mar 2015. The unemployment rate fell to 6.5 percent in Apr 2015 and 6.3 percent in May 2015. The unemployment rate fell to 6.2 percent in Jun 2015, increasing to 6.3 percent in Jul 2015 and 6.4 percent in Aug 2015. The unemployment rate fell to 6.2 percent in Sep 2015 and 6.0 percent in Oct 2015. The unemployment rate stabilized at 6.0 percent in Nov 2015, increasing to 6.1 percent in Dec 2015. The unemployment rate increased to 6.7 percent in Jan 2016 and fell to 6.6 percent in Feb 2016 and 6.5 percent in Mar 2016. The unemployment rate fell to 6.3 percent in Apr 2016, decreasing to 6.0 percent in May 2016 and 5.9 percent in Jun 2016. The unemployment rate increased to 6.0 percent in Jul 2016 and 6.1 percent in Aug 2016. The unemployment rate fell to 5.9 percent in Sep 2016, 5.8 percent in Oct 2016 and 5.7 percent in Nov 2016. The unemployment rate increased to 5.8 percent in Dec 2016 and 6.3 percent in Jan and Feb 2017. The unemployment rate decreased to 6.0 percent in Mar 2017 and decreased to 5.8 percent in Apr 2017. The unemployment rate fell to 5.6 percent in May 2017 and fell to 5.5 percent in Jun 2017, increasing to 5.6 percent in Jul 2017. The rate of unemployment increased to 5.7 percent in Aug 2017, decreasing to 5.5 percent in Sep 2017. The rate of unemployment decreased to 5.4 percent in Oct 2017, decreasing to 5.3 percent in Nov 2017 and 5.3 percent in Dec 2017. The rate of unemployment increased to 5.8 in Jan 2018, decreasing to 5.7 in Feb 2018. The rate of unemployment fell to 5.5 percent in Mar 2018, decreasing to 5.3 percent in Apr 2018 and decreasing to 5.1 percent in May 2018. The unemployment rate fell to 5.0 percent in Jun 2018, increasing to 5.1 percent in Jul 2018. The unemployment rate increased to 5.2 percent in Aug 2018, decreasing to 5.0 percent in Sep 2018. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.9 percent in Oct 2018, decreasing to 4.8 percent in Nov 2018. The unemployment rate increased to 4.9 percent in Dec 2018, increasing to 5.3 percent in Jan 2019. The unemployment rate stabilized at 5.3 percent in Jan-Feb 2019.

clip_image019

Chart VE-1A, Germany, Unemployment Rate, Unadjusted, Percent

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

VF France. Table VF-FR provides growth rates of GDP of France with the estimates of Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE). The long-term rate of GDP growth of France from IVQ1949 to IIIQ2019 is quite high at 3.1 percent. France’s growth rates were quite high in the four decades of the 1950s, 1960, 1970s and 1980s with an average growth rate of 4.0 percent compounding the average rates in the decades and discounting to one decade. The growth impulse diminished with 2.0 percent in the 1990s and 1.8 percent from 2000 to 2007. The average growth rate from 2000 to 2019, using fourth quarter data, is 1.2 percent because of the sharp impact of the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. Cobet and Wilson (2002) provide estimates of output per hour and unit labor costs in national currency and US dollars for the US, Japan and Germany from 1950 to 2000 (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 137-44). The average yearly rate of productivity change from 1950 to 2000 was 2.9 percent in the US, 6.3 percent for Japan and 4.7 percent for Germany while unit labor costs in USD increased at 2.6 percent in the US, 4.7 percent in Japan and 4.3 percent in Germany. From 1995 to 2000, output per hour increased at the average yearly rate of 4.6 percent in the US, 3.9 percent in Japan and 2.6 percent in Germany while unit labor costs in US fell at minus 0.7 percent in the US, 4.3 percent in Japan and 7.5 percent in Germany. There was increase in productivity growth in the G7 in Japan and France in the second half of the 1990s but significantly lower than the acceleration of 1.3 percentage points per year in the US. Lucas (2011May) compares growth of the G7 economies (US, UK, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Canada) and Spain, finding that catch-up growth with earlier rates for the US and UK stalled in the 1970s.

Table VF-FR, France, Average Growth Rates of GDP Fourth Quarter, 1949-2018

Period

Average ∆%

1949-2019

3.1

2007-2019*****

0.9

2007-2018****

0.9

2007-2017***

0.8

2007-2016**

0.6

2007-2015*

0.5

2007-2014

0.4

2000-2019

1.2

2000-2018

1.2

2000-2017

1.2

2000-2016

1.1

2000-2015

1.1

2000-2014

1.1

2000-2007

1.8

1990-1999

2.0

1980-1989

2.7

1970-1979

3.7

1960-1969

5.7

1950-1959

4.2

*IVQ2007 to IVQ2015 **IVQ2007 to IVQ2016 ***IVQ2007 to IVQ2017 ****IVQ2007 to IVQ2018 *****IVQ2007 to IIIQ2019

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/4241521

The IHS Markit Flash France Composite Output Index decreased from 52.1 in Nov to 52.0 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/fc726a442adf43e98f86a33019557516). Eliot Kerr, Economist at IHS Markit, finds weak manufacturing and services activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/fc726a442adf43e98f86a33019557516). The IHS Markit France Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing with close association with French GDP, decreased from 52.1 in Nov to 52.0 in Dec, indicating expanding activity of the private sector (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/03f62b31db104bfc8e95d53f6e9474e1). Eliot Kerr, Economist at IHS Markit that compiles the France Services PMI®, finds continuing activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/03f62b31db104bfc8e95d53f6e9474e1). The IHS Markit France Services Activity index increased from 52.2 in Nov to 52.4 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/b39b242df91445d5abb58a42ef8827e0). The IHS Markit France Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index® decreased to 50.4 in Dec from 51.7 in Nov (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/166020dcf8114c16b0fcab5d9a7034bf). Eliot Kerr, Economist at IHS Markit, finds slowing manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/166020dcf8114c16b0fcab5d9a7034bf). Table FR provides the country data table for France.

Table FR, France, Economic Indicators

CPI

Nov month ∆% 0.1
12 months ∆%: 1.0
12/15/19

PPI

Nov month ∆%: -0.8 Nov 12 months ∆%: 1.1

Blog 12/29/19

GDP Growth

IIIQ2019/IIQ2019 ∆%: 0.3
IIIQ2019/IIIQ2018 ∆%: 1.3
Blog 3/31/13 5/19/12 6/30/13 9/29/13 11/17/13 12/29/13 2/16/14 4/6/14 5/18/14 6/29/14 8/17/14 9/28/14 11/16/14 12/28/14 2/15/15 3/29/15 5/17/15 6/28/15 8/16/15 9/27/15 11/15/15 12/27/15 1/31/16 2/28/16 3/27/16 5/1/16 6/5/16 06/26/16 8/7/16 9/4/16 9/25/16 10/30/16 12/4/16 1/1/17 2/12/17 3/5/17 3/26/17 5/7/17 6/4/17 6/25/17 8/20/17 9/3/17 11/12/17 12/10/17 12/31/17 2/11/18 3/4/18 4/1/18 5/6/18 6/3/18 6/24/18 9/2/18 11/11/18 12/9/18 12/30/18 3/10/19 3/31/19 5/5/19 6/2/19 8/11/19 9/8/19 11/3/19

Industrial Production

Manufacturing Oct 0.4 Quarter ∆%: -1.2 YOY -0.4

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/12/15

Consumer Spending

Manufactured Goods
Nov ∆%: 0.3 12-Month Engineered Goods
∆%: 1.7

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/5/15

Employment

Unemployment Rate: IIIQ2019 8.3%
Blog 11/24/19

Trade Balance

Nov Exports ∆%: month -2.2 12 months 1.7

Imports ∆%: month -0.6 12 months 3.1

Earlier Data:

Blog 4/12/15

Confidence Indicators

Historical average 100

Dec Mfg Business Climate 102

Earlier Data:

Blog 3/29/15

Links to blog comments in Table FR: 12/29/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/diverging-economic-conditions-and.html

12/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/increase-in-valuations-of-risk_14.html

12/1/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

11/17/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial_16.html

11/3/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/decrease-of-fomc-policy-rate-monetary.html

10/27/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial_26.html

10/20/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/dollar-depreciation-fluctuating.html

9/29/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/dollar-appreciation-decreasing.html

9/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/competitive-exchange-rate-and-interest.html

9/8/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/increase-in-valuations-of-risk.html

8/18/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/global-decline-of-yields-of-government.html

8/11/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/competitive-exchange-rate-policies.html

7/28/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/dollar-appreciation-in-anticipations-of.html

7/14/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/fomc-uncertain-outlook-frank-h-knights.html

6/30/2019 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/06/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

6/2/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/06/contraction-of-risk-financial-assets.html

5/5/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

3/31/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/03/inverted-yield-curve-of-treasury_30.html

12/30/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/12/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

12/9/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/12/fluctuation-of-valuations-of-risk.html

11/11/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/11/oscillation-of-valuations-of-risk.html

9/2/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/09/revision-of-united-states-national.html

8/19/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/08/world-inflation-waves-lost-economic.html

7/29/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/07/revision-of-united-states-national.html

6/24/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

6/3/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/stronger-dollar-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/6/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

04/01/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_31.html

3/4/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

2/11/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/collateral-effects-of-unwinding.html

12/31/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/dollar-devaluation-cyclically.html

12/10/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

11/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/11/the-lost-economic-cycle-of-global_25.html

11/12/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/11/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

9/3/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

8/20/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

6/25/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/united-states-commercial-banks-united.html

6/4/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

5/7/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

3/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

3/5/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

2/12/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

1/1/17 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/rules-versus-discretionary-authorities.html

12/4/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/rising-yields-and-dollar-revaluation.html

10/30/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/10/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_30.html

9/25/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/the-economic-outlook-is-inherently.html

9/4/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/interest-rates-and-valuations-of-risk.html

8/7/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/global-competitive-easing-or.html

6/26/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/of-course-considerable-uncertainty.html

6/5/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/financial-turbulence-twenty-four.html

5/1/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/economic-activity-appears-to-have.html

3/27/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/contraction-of-united-states-corporate.html

2/28/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

1/31/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/closely-monitoring-global-economic-and.html

12/27/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/dollar-revaluation-and-decreasing.html

11/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-policy-conundrum-recovery.html

9/27/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/monetary-policy-designed-on-measurable.html

08/16/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/exchange-rate-and-financial-asset.html

6/28/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/international-valuations-of-financial.html

5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

9/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

12/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/collapse-of-united-states-dynamism-of.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

6/30/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/tapering-quantitative-easing-policy-and.html

5/19/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/word-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

VG Italy. Table VG-IT provides revised percentage changes of GDP in Italy of quarter on prior quarter and quarter on same quarter a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2019 and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2019, Italy’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2019 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2018, the GDP of Italy increased 0.1 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2018 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2018, the GDP of Italy decreased 0.1 percent and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2018 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, the GDP of Italy increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2017 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2017, the GDP of Italy increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, the GDP of Italy increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2016, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2015, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IVQ2014 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.1 percent in IQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IVQ2013 and fell 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2013 and fell 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.8 percent in IQ2013 and declined 2.9 percent relative to IQ2013. GDP had been growing during six consecutive quarters but at very low rates from IQ2010 to IIQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell in seven consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at increasingly higher rates of contraction from 0.5 percent in IIIQ2011 to 0.9 percent in IVQ2011, 1.1 percent in IQ2012, 0.8 percent in IIQ2012 and 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012. The pace of decline accelerated to minus 0.8 percent in IVQ2012 and minus 0.8 percent in IQ2013. GDP contracted cumulatively 5.3 percent in seven consecutive quarterly contractions from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at the annual equivalent rate of minus 3.1 percent. The year-on-year rate has fallen from 2.2 percent in IVQ2010 to minus 3.2 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.9 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.2 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.5 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.9 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.3 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.4 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.2 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.5 percent in IIIQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.4 percent in IVQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.7 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.9 percent in IIQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.7 percent in IIIQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.9 percent in IVQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.4 percent in IQ2018 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.9 percent in IIQ2018 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2018 relative to a year earlier and decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2018 relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IQ2019 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2019 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIIQ2019 relative to a year earlier. Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/), the GDP of Italy in IIIQ2019 of €430,459.2 million (https://www.istat.it/en/archivio/236253) is lower by 5.2 percent relative to €452,802.5 million in IQ2008 (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/). Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/), the GDP of Italy increased from €392,018.4 million in IQ1998 to €452,802.5 million in IQ2008 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.5 percent. The fiscal adjustment of Italy is significantly more difficult with the economy not growing especially on the prospects of increasing government revenue. The strategy is for reforms to improve productivity, facilitating future fiscal consolidation.

Table VG-IT, Italy, GDP ∆%

Quarter ∆% Relative to Preceding Quarter

Quarter ∆% Relative to Same Quarter Year Earlier

IIIQ2019

0.1

0.3

IIQ2019

0.1

0.1

IQ2019

0.1

0.0

IVQ2018

0.1

-0.1

IIIQ2018

-0.1

0.4

IIQ2018

-0.1

0.9

IQ2018

0.1

1.4

IVQ2017

0.5

1.9

IIIQ2017

0.4

1.7

IIQ2017

0.4

1.9

IQ2017

0.6

1.7

IVQ2016

0.3

1.4

IIIQ2016

0.6

1.5

IIQ2016

0.2

1.2

IQ2016

0.3

1.4

IVQ2015

0.5

1.3

IIIQ2015

0.2

0.6

IIQ2015

0.4

0.5

IQ2015

0.2

0.1

IVQ2014

-0.2

0.0

IIIQ2014

0.1

0.0

IIQ2014

0.0

0.1

IQ2014

0.1

0.1

IVQ2013

-0.2

-0.9

IIIQ2013

0.2

-1.5

IIQ2013

0.0

-2.2

IQ2013

-0.8

-2.9

IVQ2012

-0.8

-3.2

IIIQ2012

-0.5

-3.3

IIQ2012

-0.8

-3.2

IQ2012

-1.1

-2.3

IVQ2011

-0.9

-0.9

IIIQ2011

-0.5

0.6

IIQ2011

0.1

1.5

IQ2011

0.3

2.2

IVQ2010

0.6

2.2

IIIQ2010

0.5

1.9

IIQ2010

0.7

1.9

IQ2010

0.3

0.8

IVQ2009

0.3

-2.3

IIIQ2009

0.5

-5.0

IIQ2009

-0.3

-6.6

IQ2009

-2.8

-7.2

IVQ2008

-2.5

-3.5

IIIQ2008

-1.2

-1.4

IIQ2008

-0.9

0.0

IQ2008

1.0

1.0

IV2007

-0.3

0.0

IIIQ2007

0.2

1.5

IIQ2007

0.1

1.7

IQ2007

0.0

2.2

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica https://www.istat.it/en/archivio/236253

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/

The HIS Markit Italy Composite Output Index decreased from 49.6 in Nov to 49.3 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/cb6aa214ff264c42bec76053b89ebfd4).The IHS Markit Italy Business Activity Index increased from 50.4 in Nov to 51.1 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/cb6aa214ff264c42bec76053b89ebfd4). Lewis Cooper, Economist at IHS Markit that compiles the Italy Services PMI®, finds challenging conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/cb6aa214ff264c42bec76053b89ebfd4). The IHS Markit Italy Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®), decreased from 47.6 in Nov to 46.2 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/83980f9ebca54b06b17c98353f3ae55f). New export orders decreased. Lewis Cooper, Economist at HIS Markit that compiles the Italian Manufacturing PMI®, finds deteriorating manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/83980f9ebca54b06b17c98353f3ae55f). Table IT provides the country data table for Italy.

Table IT, Italy, Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index

Dec month ∆% 0.2

12 months ∆% 0.5
Blog 1/12/20

Producer Price Index

Nov month ∆%: -0.2 Nov 12-month ∆%: 0.2

Blog 12/29/19

GDP Growth

IIIQ2019/IIQ2019 SA ∆%: 0.1
IIIQ2019/IIIQ2018 NSA ∆%: 0.3
Blog 3/17/13 6/16/13 8/11/13 9/15/13 11/17/13 12/15/13 2/16/14 3/16/14 5/18/14 6/15/14 8/10/14 8/31/14 10/19/14 11/16/14 12/7/14 2/15/15 3/15/15 5/17/15 5/31/15 8/16/15 9/6/15 11/15/15 12/6/15 2/14/16 3/6/16 5/15/16 6/5/16 8/14/16 9/11/16 11/20/16 12/4/16 02/26/17 3/12/17 5/21/17 6/4/17 8/20/17 9/3/17 11/26/17 12/10/17 2/18/18 3/11/18 5/20/18 6/10/18 9/9/18 12/16/18 3/10/19 5/26/19 6/9/19 9/15/19 12/29/19

Labor Report

Sep 2019

Participation rate 66.0%

Employment ratio 59.4%

Unemployment rate 9.7%

Youth Unemployment 28.6%

Blog 1/12/20

Industrial Production

Oct month ∆%: -0.3
12 months CA ∆%: -2.4

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/19/15

Retail Sales

Sep month ∆%: 0.7

Sep 12-month ∆%: 0.9

Earlier Data:

Blog 4/26/15

Business Confidence

Mfg Dec 99.1, Aug 99.7

Construction Dec 140.1 Aug 140.4

Earlier Data:

Blog 4/5/15

Trade Balance

Balance Oct SA €6.476 million
Exports Oct month SA ∆%: 3.1; Imports month ∆%: -2.3
Exports 12 months Oct NSA ∆%: 4.3 Imports 12 months NSA ∆%: -5.8

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/19/15

Links to blog comments in Table IT: 12/29/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/diverging-economic-conditions-and.html

12/8/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/increase-in-valuations-of-risk.html

12/1/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

11/17/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial_16.html

11/3/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/decrease-of-fomc-policy-rate-monetary.html

10/20/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/dollar-depreciation-fluctuating.html

10/6/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/volatility-of-valuations-of-risk.html

9/29/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/dollar-appreciation-decreasing.html

9/22/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/uncertain-fomc-outlook-of-monetary.html

9/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/competitive-exchange-rate-and-interest.html

9/8/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/increase-in-valuations-of-risk.html

8/11/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/competitive-exchange-rate-policies.html

8/4/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/dollar-appreciation-contraction-of.html

7/21/2019 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/global-manufacturing-stress-world.html

7/7/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/twenty-million-unemployed-or.html

6/30/2019 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/06/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

6/9/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/06/increase-of-valuations-of-risk.html

5/26/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/05/contraction-of-risk-financial-assets.html

3/10/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/03/dollar-revaluation-twenty-one-million.html

12/16/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/12/slowing-world-economic-growth-and.html

9/9/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/09/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

5/20/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/dollar-revaluation-united-states_24.html

3/11/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/twenty-three-million-unemployed-or.html

2/18/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/united-states-inflation-trend-or.html

12/10/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

11/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/11/the-lost-economic-cycle-of-global_25.html

9/3/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

8/20/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

6/4/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

5/21/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/dollar-devaluation-world-inflation.html

3/12/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/increasing-interest-rates-twenty-four.html

2/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

12/4/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/rising-yields-and-dollar-revaluation.html

11/20/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/interest-rate-increase-could-well.html

9/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/interest-rate-uncertainty-and-valuation.html

8/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

6/5/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/financial-turbulence-twenty-four.html

5/15/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

3/6/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/twenty-five-million-unemployed-or.html

2/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/subdued-foreign-growth-and-dollar.html

12/6/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/liftoff-of-fed-funds-rate-followed-by.html

11/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-policy-conundrum-recovery.html

9/6/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what.html

08/16/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/exchange-rate-and-financial-asset.html

5/31/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/dollar-revaluation-squeezing-corporate.html

5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

12/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/financial-risks-twenty-six-million.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

10/19/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/imf-view-squeeze-of-economic-activity.html

8/31/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopo7litical-and-financial-risks.html

8/10/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/volatility-of-valuations-of-risk_10.html

6/15/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financialgeopolitical-risks-recovery.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

8/11/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/recovery-without-hiring-loss-of-full.html

6/16/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/recovery-without-hiring-seven-million.html

3/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

Data on Italy’s labor market since 2004 are in Table VG-1A. The unemployment rate has risen from 6.2 percent in Dec 2006 to 9.7 percent in Nov 2019. The rate of youth unemployment for ages 15 to 24 years increased from 20.3 percent in Dec 2006 to 28.6 percent in Nov 2019. As in other advanced economies, unemployment has reached high levels.

Table VG-1, Italy, Labor Report

Participation Rate %

Employment Ratio %

Unemployment Rate %

Unemployment
Rate 15-24 Years %

Nov 2019

66.0

59.4

9.7

28.6

Oct

65.8

59.3

9.7

28.2

Sep

65.9

59.2

9.9

28.8

Aug

65.7

59.2

9.6

27.8

Jul

65.8

59.2

9.9

28.9

Jun

65.8

59.2

9.8

27.9

May

65.8

59.1

10.0

29.5

Apr

65.7

58.9

10.1

30.0

Mar

65.7

58.9

10.1

29.7

Feb

65.7

58.7

10.5

31.6

Jan

65.6

58.6

10.4

32.0

Dec 2018

65.6

58.7

10.4

32.1

Nov

65.6

58.5

10.5

31.9

Oct

65.8

58.6

10.7

32.7

Sep

65.5

58.6

10.3

32.0

Aug

65.5

58.7

10.2

32.1

Jul

65.5

58.6

10.4

31.5

Jun

65.9

58.6

10.8

32.9

May

65.8

58.7

10.6

32.0

Apr

65.9

58.5

10.9

33.0

Mar

65.7

58.4

10.9

32.6

Feb

65.4

58.2

10.8

33.3

Jan

65.5

58.2

11.0

32.5

Dec 2017

65.3

58.1

10.9

32.1

Nov

65.7

58.3

11.0

32.9

Oct

65.5

58.1

11.1

34.2

Sep

65.6

58.1

11.2

34.9

Aug

65.6

58.0

11.4

34.5

Jul

65.6

58.0

11.4

34.8

Jun

65.3

57.9

11.1

34.8

May

65.3

57.7

11.4

36.7

Apr

65.2

57.8

11.1

35.6

Mar

65.4

57.7

11.5

36.2

Feb

65.4

57.8

11.4

35.1

Jan

65.4

57.6

11.7

37.3

Dec 2016

65.4

57.6

11.8

38.2

Nov

65.4

57.4

11.9

39.4

Oct

65.1

57.3

11.7

36.8

Sep

65.2

57.4

11.8

36.6

Aug

64.8

57.2

11.5

36.3

Jul

65.0

57.3

11.6

38.0

Jun

65.0

57.3

11.7

36.7

May

64.9

57.3

11.6

37.2

Apr

64.8

57.1

11.7

37.5

Mar

64.5

56.9

11.5

38.0

Feb

64.3

56.6

11.7

38.7

Jan

64.4

56.8

11.5

39.0

Dec 2015

64.3

56.7

11.6

38.2

Nov

64.1

56.7

11.4

37.2

Oct

64.3

56.7

11.6

39.7

Sep

64.0

56.6

11.4

39.1

Aug

64.1

56.7

11.5

39.4

Jul

63.9

56.3

11.7

38.1

Jun

64.1

56.2

12.2

42.2

May

64.0

56.0

12.2

41.0

Apr

64.0

56.1

12.2

41.6

Mar

64.0

55.9

12.5

42.4

Feb

64.0

56.0

12.3

42.5

Jan

63.9

55.9

12.3

41.4

Dec 2014

64.0

55.9

12.3

41.0

Nov

64.3

55.8

13.1

43.2

Oct

64.2

55.9

12.8

42.1

Sep

64.2

55.9

12.7

42.1

Aug

63.7

55.7

12.4

42.5

Jul

64.0

55.8

12.6

43.5

Jun

63.7

55.8

12.1

42.2

May

63.9

55.7

12.6

42.9

Apr

63.5

55.4

12.5

43.1

Mar

63.8

55.6

12.6

43.4

Feb

63.7

55.4

12.8

42.8

Jan

63.6

55.4

12.8

43.1

Dec 2013

63.6

55.5

12.5

42.3

Dec 2012

63.5

56.1

11.4

37.9

Dec 2011

62.8

56.7

9.6

31.6

Dec 2010

61.9

56.8

8.1

28.2

Dec 2009

62.2

56.9

8.3

26.5

Dec 2008

62.5

58.2

6.8

22.6

Dec 2007

62.9

58.7

6.6

21.5

Dec 2006

62.4

58.4

6.2

20.3

Dec 2005

62.5

57.7

7.5

23.5

Dec 2004

62.4

57.5

7.8

23.7

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/237307

VH United Kingdom. Annual data in Table VH-UK show the strong impact of the global recession in the UK with decline of GDP of 4.2 percent in 2009 after dropping 0.3 percent in 2008. Recovery of 1.9 percent in 2010 is relatively low in comparison with annual growth rates in 2007 and earlier years. Growth was only 1.5 percent in 2011 and 1.5 percent in 2012. Growth increased to 2.1 percent in 2013 and 2.6 percent in 2014. Growth fell to 2.4 percent in 2015, and 1.9 percent in 2016.  GDP grew 1.9 percent in 2017. GDP grew 1.3 percent in 2018. The bottom part of Table VH-UK provides average growth rates of UK GDP since 1948. The UK economy grew at 2.6 percent per year on average between 1948 and 2018, which is relatively high for an advanced economy. The growth rate of GDP between 2000 and 2007 is higher at 2.8 percent. Growth in the current cyclical expansion from 2010 to 2018 has been only at 1.9 percent as advanced economies struggle with weak internal demand and world trade. GDP in 2018 is higher by 13.2 percent relative to 2007 while it would have been 35.5 higher at trend of 2.8 percent as from 2000 to 2007.

Table VH-UK, UK, Gross Domestic Product, ∆%

∆% on Prior Year

1998

3.6

1999

3.4

2000

3.4

2001

3.0

2002

2.3

2003

3.3

2004

2.4

2005

3.2

2006

2.8

2007

2.4

2008

-0.3

2009

-4.2

2010

1.9

2011

1.5

2012

1.5

2013

2.1

2014

2.6

2015

2.4

2016

1.9

2017

1.9

2018

1.3

Average Growth Rates ∆% per Year

1948-2018

2.6

1950-1959

3.1

1960-1969

3.1

1970-1979

2.6

1980-1989

3.2

1990-1999

2.4

2000-2007

2.8

2007-2013*

2.5

2007-2014*

5.1

2007-2015

0.9

2007-2016

1.0

2007-2017

1.1

2007-2018

1.1

2000-2018

1.8

*Absolute change from 2007 to 2013 and 2007 to 2014

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/julytoseptember2019

The HIS Markit Flash UK PMI® Composite Output Index fell from 52.4 in Jun to 47.7 in Jul, which is the lowest in 87 months (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/b68c3686a48c40198505b81e4e55cd81). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds the index suggests pace of contraction of GDP at 0.4 percent in IIIQ2016 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/b68c3686a48c40198505b81e4e55cd81). The HIS Markit/CIPS Flash UK Composite PMI decreased from 59.3 in Nov 2019 to 48.5 in Dec 2019 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/f73a3f4a419f4aac9f8b32b0831dfdd3). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at HIS Markit finds that the index suggests contraction of the UK economy in the fourth quarter (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/f73a3f4a419f4aac9f8b32b0831dfdd3). The HIS Markit/CIPS UK Composite Output Index did not change from 49.3 in Nov 2019 to 49.3 in Dec 2019 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/5baf491b055d4c1393a290264957996a). Tim Moore, Economics Associated Director at IHS Markit, finds stagnating conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/5baf491b055d4c1393a290264957996a). The Business Activity Index of the IHS Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI® increased from 49.3 in Nov to 50.0 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/5baf491b055d4c1393a290264957996a). The IHS Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®) decreased to 47.5 in Dec from 48.9 in Nov (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/0b57169b91e54e68aec22549a912edbd). New export orders decreased. Rob Dobson, Director at IHS Markit that compiles the Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI®, finds challenges in manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/0b57169b91e54e68aec22549a912edbd). Table UK provides the economic indicators for the United Kingdom.

Table UK, UK Economic Indicators

CPI

Nov month ∆%: 0.2
Nov 12-month ∆%: 1.5
Blog 12/29/19

Output/Input Prices

Output Prices: Nov 12-month NSA ∆%: 0.5 excluding food, petroleum ∆%: 1.1
Input Prices: Nov 12-month NSA
∆%: minus 2.7
Excluding ∆%: minus 0.3
Blog 12/29/19

GDP Growth

IIIQ2019 prior quarter ∆% 0.4; year earlier same quarter ∆%: 1.1
Blog 3/31/13 4/28/13 5/26/13 7/28/13 8/25/13 9/29/13 10/27/13 12/1/13 12/22/13 2/2/14 3/2/14 4/6/14 5/4/14 5/25/14 6/29/14 7/27/14 8/17/14 10/5/14 10/26/14 11/30/14 12/28/14 2/1/15 3/1/15 4/5/15 5/3/15 5/31/15 7/5/15 8/2/15 9/6/15 10/4/15 11/1/15 11/29/15 12/27/15 1/31/16 2/28/16 4/3/16 5/1/16 5/29/16 7/3/16 7/31/16 9/4/16 10/9/16 10/30/16 11/27/16 1/1/17 2/5/17 2/26/17 4/9/17 5/7/2017 5/28/17 7/9/17 7/30/17 8/19/17 10/8/17 10/29/17 11/26/17 12/31/17 2/4/18 2/25/18 4/8/18 5/6/18 5/2718 7/8/18 8/19/18 10/7/18 11/18/18 12/30/18 2/17/19 4/7/19 5/19/19 7/7/19 8/18/19 10/6/19 11/17/19 1/5/20

Industrial Production

Oct 2019/Oct 2018 ∆%: Production Industries -1.3; Manufacturing -1.2

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/12/15

Retail Sales

Nov month ∆%: -0.6
Nov 12-month ∆%: 1.0

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/26/15

Labor Market

Aug-Oct 2019 Unemployment Rate: 3.8%
Blog 12/29/19 LMGDP 5/17/15

GDP and the Labor Market

IQ2015 Employment 104.8

IQ2008 =100

GDP IQ15=104.0 IQ2008=100

Blog 5/17/14

Trade Balance UK Trade in Goods and Services

Balance SA Oct -£5188 million
Exports Oct ∆%: 0.8; Oct 12 M ∆%: 3.7
Imports Oct ∆%: 6.2 Oct 12M ∆%: 7.0

EARLIER DATA:
Blog 4/12/15

Links to blog comments in Table UK: 1/5/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/01/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

12/29/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/diverging-economic-conditions-and.html

11/17/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial_16.html

11/3/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/decrease-of-fomc-policy-rate-monetary.html

10/20/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/dollar-depreciation-fluctuating.html

10/6/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/volatility-of-valuations-of-risk.html

9/22/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/uncertain-fomc-outlook-of-monetary.html

9/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/competitive-exchange-rate-and-interest.html

8/18/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/global-decline-of-yields-of-government.html

7/21/2019 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/global-manufacturing-stress-world.html

7/7/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/twenty-million-unemployed-or.html

5/19/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/05/decreasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

4/7/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/04/flattening-yield-curve-of-treasury.html

2/17/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/02/dollar-revaluation-with-increases-in.html

12/30/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/12/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

11/18/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/11/weakening-gdp-growth-in-major-economies.html

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4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html

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4/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_28.html

03/31/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

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