United States Inflation, Rules, Discretionary Authorities and Slow Productivity Growth, Twenty-One Million in Insured Unemployment, Collapse of United States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth Underperforming Below Trend Worldwide Followed by the Probable Global Recession in the Lockdown of Economic Activity in the COVID-19 Event, Probable Global Recession, World Cyclical Slow Growth, and Government Intervention in Globalization: Part V

United States Inflation, Rules, Discretionary Authorities and Slow Productivity Growth, Twenty-One Million in Insured Unemployment, Collapse of United States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth Underperforming Below Trend Worldwide Followed by the Probable Global Recession in the Lockdown of Economic Activity in the COVID-19 Event, Probable Global Recession, World Cyclical Slow Growth, and Government Intervention in Globalization

Carlos M. Pelaez

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020.

IC United States Inflation

IC Long-term US Inflation

ID Current US Inflation

II Rules, Discretionary Authorities and Slow Productivity Growth

II IB Collapse of United States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth Underperforming Below Trend Worldwide Followed by the Probable Global Recession in the Lockdown of Economic Activity in the COVID-19 Event

III World Financial Turbulence

IV Global Inflation

V World Economic Slowdown

VA United States

VB Japan

VC China

VD Euro Area

VE Germany

VF France

VG Italy

VH United Kingdom

VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets

VII Economic Indicators

VIII Interest Rates

IX Conclusion

References

Appendixes

Appendix I The Great Inflation

IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies

IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact

IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort

IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis

V World Economic Slowdown. Table V-1 is constructed with the database of the IMF (https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/index.aspx) to show GDP in dollars in 2018 and the growth rate of real GDP of the world and selected regional countries from 2018 to 2021. The data illustrate the concept often repeated of “two-speed recovery” of the world economy from the recession of 2007 to 2009. There is a major change in the sharp contraction of world real GDP of 3.1 percent in 2020 in the probable global recession originating in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The IMF has changed its measurement of growth of the world economy to 3.6 percent in 2018 and reducing the forecast rate of growth to 2.9 percent in 2019, minus 3.1 percent in 2020 and 5.8 percent in 2021. Slow-speed recovery occurs in the “major advanced economies” of the G7 that are projected to grow at much lower rates than world output, 0.4 percent on average from 2018 to 2021, in contrast with 2.2 percent for the world as a whole. While the world would grow 9.3 percent in the four years from 2018 to 2021, the G7 as a whole would grow 1.6 percent. The “two speed” concept is in reference to the growth of the 150 countries labeled as emerging and developing economies (EMDE). The EMDEs would grow cumulatively 14.2 percent or at the average yearly rate of 3.4 percent.

Table V-1, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Real GDP Growth

	GDP USD Billions 2018	Real GDP ∆% 2018	Real GDP ∆% 2019	Real GDP ∆% 2020	Real GDP ∆% 2021
World	135,762	3.6	2.9	-3.1	5.8
G7	40,783	2.0	1.6	-6.2	4.5
Canada	1,842	2.0	1.6	-6.2	4.3
France	2,970	1.7	1.3	-7.2	4.5
DE	4,343	1.5	0.6	-7.0	5.2
Italy	2,406	0.8	0.3	-9.1	4.8
Japan	5,578	0.3	0.7	-5.2	3.0
UK	3,065	1.3	1.4	-6.5	4.0
US	20,580	2.9	2.3	-5.9	4.7
Euro Area	NA	1.9	1.2	-7.5	4.7
DE	4,343	1.5	0.6	-7.0	5.2
France	2,970	1.7	1.3	7.2	4.5
Italy	2,406	0.8	0.3	-9.1	4.8
POT	334	2.6	2.2	-8.0	5.0
Ireland	389	8.3	5.5	-6.8	6.3
Greece	312	1.9	1.9	-10.0	5.1
Spain	1,854	2.4	2.0	-8.0	4.3
EMDE	80,401	4.5	3.7	-1.1	6.6
Brazil	3,383	1.3	1.1	-5.3	2.9
Russia	4,258	2.5	1.3	-5.5	3.5
India	10,413	6.1	4.2	1.9	7.4
China	25,294	6.8	6.1	1.2	9.2

Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries); POT: Portugal

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook databank

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/index.aspx

Continuing high rates of unemployment in advanced economies constitute another characteristic of the database of the WEO (Continuing high rates of unemployment in advanced economies constitute another characteristic of the database of the WEO (https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2019/02/weodata/index.aspx). Table V-2 is constructed with the WEO database to provide rates of unemployment from 2017 to 2021 for major countries and regions. In fact, unemployment rates for 2017 in Table V-2 are high for all countries: unusually high for countries with high rates most of the time and unusually high for countries with low rates most of the time. The rates of unemployment are particularly high in 2017 for the countries with sovereign debt difficulties in Europe: 8.9 percent for Portugal (POT), 6.7 percent for Ireland, 21.5 percent for Greece, 17.2 percent for Spain and 11.3 percent for Italy, which is lower but still high. The G7 rate of unemployment is 5.0 percent. Unemployment rates are not likely to decrease substantially if relative slow cyclical growth persists in advanced economies. There are sharp increases in the rates of unemployment in 2020 in the probable global recession originating in the lockdown of economy activity in the COVID-19 event. The rate of unemployment increases to 7.8 percent for the G7 countries and 10.4 percent for the euro area.

Table V-2, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Unemployment Rate as Percent of Labor Force

	% Labor Force 2017	% Labor Force 2018	% Labor Force 2019	% Labor Force 2020	% Labor Force 2021
World	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
G7	5.0	4.5	4.3	7.8	6.9
Canada	6.3	5.8	5.7	7.5	7.2
France	9.4	9.0	8.5	10.4	10.4
DE	3.8	3.4	3.2	3.9	3.5
Italy	11.3	10.6	10.0	12.7	10.5
Japan	2.8	2.4	2.4	3.0	2.3
UK	4.4	4.1	3.8	4.8	4.4
US	4.3	3.9	3.7	10.4	9.1
Euro Area	9.1	8.2	7.6	10.4	8.9
DE	3.8	3.4	3.2	3.9	3.5
France	9.4	9.0	8.5	10.4	10.4
Italy	11.3	10.6	10.0	12.7	10.5
POT	8.9	7.0	6.5	13.9	8.7
Ireland	6.7	5.8	5.0	12.1	7.9
Greece	21.5	19.3	17.3	22.3	19.0
Spain	17.2	15.3	14.1	20.8	17.5
EMDE	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
Brazil	12.8	12.3	11.9	14.7	13.5
Russia	5.2	4.8	4.6	4.9	4.8
India	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
China	3.9	3.8	3.6	4.3	3.8

Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries)

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/index.aspx

There are references to adverse periods as “lost decades.” There is a more prolonged and adverse period in Table V-3A: the lost economic cycle of the Global Recession with economic growth underperforming below trend worldwide. Economic contractions were relatively high but not comparable to the decline of GDP during the Great Depression. In fact, during the Great Depression in the four years of 1930 to 1933, US GDP in constant dollars fell 26.3 percent cumulatively and fell 45.3 percent in current dollars (Pelaez and Pelaez, Financial Regulation after the Global Recession (2009a), 150-2, Pelaez and Pelaez, Globalization and the State, Vol. II (2009b), 205-7 and revisions in http://bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). Data are available for the 1930s only on a yearly basis. The contraction of GDP in the current cycle of the Global Recession was much lower, 4.0 percent (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/05/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/03/weekly-rise-of-valuations-of-risk.html). Contractions were deeper in Japan, 8.6 percent, the euro area (19 members), 5.7 percent, Germany 6.9 percent and the UK 6.0 percent. The contraction in France was 3.9 percent. There is adversity in low rates of growth during the expansion that did not compensate for the contraction such that for the whole cycle performance is disappointingly low. As a result, GDP is substantially below what it would have been in trend growth in all countries and regions in the world. Long-term economic performance in the United States consisted of trend growth of GDP at 3 percent per year and of per capita GDP at 2 percent per year as measured for 1870 to 2010 by Robert E Lucas (2011May). The economy returned to trend growth after adverse events such as wars and recessions. The key characteristic of adversities such as recessions was much higher rates of growth in expansion periods that permitted the economy to recover output, income and employment losses that occurred during the contractions. Over the business cycle, the economy compensated the losses of contractions with higher growth in expansions to maintain trend growth of GDP of 3 percent and of GDP per capita of 2 percent. The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. US economic growth has been at only 2.1 percent on average in the cyclical expansion in the 43 quarters from IIIQ2009 to IQ2020. Boskin (2010Sep) measures that the US economy grew at 6.2 percent in the first four quarters and 4.5 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the second quarter of 1975; and at 7.7 percent in the first four quarters and 5.8 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the first quarter of 1983 (Professor Michael J. Boskin, Summer of Discontent, Wall Street Journal, Sep 2, 2010 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882304575465462926649950.html). There are new calculations using the revision of US GDP and personal income data since 1929 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (http://bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) and the first estimate of GDP for IQ2020 (https://www.bea.gov/system/files/2020-04/gdp1q20_adv.pdf). The average of 7.7 percent in the first four quarters of major cyclical expansions is in contrast with the rate of growth in the first four quarters of the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010 of only 2.8 percent obtained by dividing GDP of $15,557.3 billion in IIQ2010 by GDP of $15,134.1 billion in IIQ2009 {[($15,557.3/$15,134.1) -1]100 = 2.8%], or accumulating the quarter on quarter growth rates (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/05/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/03/weekly-rise-of-valuations-of-risk.html). The expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1986 was at the average annual growth rate of 5.7 percent, 5.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1986, 5.1 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1986, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1989, 4.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1989, 4.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1989, 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1989. 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1990, 4.4 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1990, 4.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1990, 4.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1990, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ2019, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1993 and at 7.9 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/05/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/03/weekly-rise-of-valuations-of-risk.html). The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dates a contraction of the US from IQ1990 (Jul) to IQ1991 (Mar) (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html). The expansion lasted until another contraction beginning in IQ2001 (Mar). US GDP contracted 1.3 percent from the pre-recession peak of $8983.9 billion of chained 2009 dollars in IIIQ1990 to the trough of $8865.6 billion in IQ1991 (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IQ2020 and the lockdown of economic activity in COVID-19 would have accumulated to 43.6 percent. GDP in IQ2020 would be $22,634.2 billion (in constant dollars of 2012) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $3646.3 billion than actual $18,987.9 billion. There are more than three trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 51.6 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 30.0 percent of the effective labor force with the largest part originating in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/05/fifty-two-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/04/lockdown-of-economic-activity-in.html). Unemployment is increasing sharply while employment is declining rapidly because of the lockdown of economic activity in the probable global recession resulting from the COVID-19 event (https://www.bls.gov/cps/employment-situation-covid19-faq-april-2020.pdf). US GDP in IQ2020 is 16.1 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $15,762.0 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $18,987.9 billion in IQ2020 or 20.5 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.5 percent. Professor John H. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. Cochrane (2016May02) measures GDP growth in the US at average 3.5 percent per year from 1950 to 2000 and only at 1.76 percent per year from 2000 to 2015 with only at 2.0 percent annual equivalent in the current expansion. Cochrane (2016May02) proposes drastic changes in regulation and legal obstacles to private economic activity. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 3.1 percent per year from Mar 1919 to Mar 2020. Growth at 3.1 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 157.4135 in Mar 2020. The actual index NSA in Mar 2020 is 98.5511 which is 37.4 percent below trend. The deterioration of manufacturing in Mar 2020 originates in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Manufacturing grew at the average annual rate of 3.3 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2006. Growth at 3.3 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 161.1952 in Mar 2020. The actual index NSA in Mar 2020 is 98.5511, which is 38.9 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 1.7 percent between Dec 1986 and Mar 2020. Using trend growth of 1.7 percent per year, the index would increase to 133.1389 in Mar 2020. The output of manufacturing at 98.5511 in Mar 2020 is 26.0 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Using the NAICS (North American Industry Classification System), manufacturing output fell from the high of 110.5147 in Jun 2007 to the low of 86.3800 in Apr 2009 or 21.8 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased from 86.3800 in Apr 2009 to 99.9350 in Mar 2020 or 15.7 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased at the annual equivalent rate of 3.5 percent from Dec 1986 to Dec 2006. Growth at 3.5 percent would increase the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 162.5897 in Mar 2020. The NAICS index at 99.9350 in Mar 2020 is 38.5 below trend. The NAICS manufacturing output index grew at 1.7 percent annual equivalent from Dec 1999 to Dec 2006. Growth at 1.7 percent would raise the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 131.1461 in Mar 2020. The NAICS index at 99.9350 in Mar 2020 is 23.8 percent below trend under this alternative calculation.

Table V-3A, Cycle 2007-2020, Percentage Contraction, Average Growth Rate in Expansion, Average Growth Rate in Whole Cycle and GDP Percent Below Trend

	Contraction ∆%	Expansion Average ∆%	Whole Cycle Average ∆%	Below Trend Percent
USA	4.0	2.1	1.5	16.1
Japan	8.6	1.3	0.4	NA
Euro Area 19	5.7	1.4	0.7	16.7
France	3.9	1.3	0.8	10.5
Germany	7.0	1.9	1.1	NA
UK	6.0	1.6	0.9	20.1

Note: AV: Average. Expansion and Whole Cycle AV ∆% calculated with quarterly growth, seasonally adjusted and quarterly adjusted when applicable, rates and converted into annual equivalent.

Data reported periodically in this blog.

Source: Country Statistical Agencies https://www.bls.gov/bls/other.htm https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/related-sites.html

Manufacturing is underperforming in the lost cycle of the global recession. Manufacturing (NAICS) in Mar 2020 is lower by 9.6 percent relative to the peak in Jun 2007, as shown in Chart V-3A. Manufacturing (SIC) in Mar 2020 at 98.5511 is lower by 12.3 percent relative to the peak at 112.3113 in Jun 2007. There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 3.1 percent per year from Mar 1919 to Mar 2020. Growth at 3.1 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 157.4135 in Mar 2020. The actual index NSA in Mar 2020 is 98.5511 which is 37.4 percent below trend. The deterioration of manufacturing in Mar 2020 originates in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Manufacturing grew at the average annual rate of 3.3 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2006. Growth at 3.3 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 161.1952 in Mar 2020. The actual index NSA in Mar 2020 is 98.5511, which is 38.9 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 1.7 percent between Dec 1986 and Mar 2020. Using trend growth of 1.7 percent per year, the index would increase to 133.1389 in Mar 2020. The output of manufacturing at 98.5511 in Mar 2020 is 26.0 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Using the NAICS (North American Industry Classification System), manufacturing output fell from the high of 110.5147 in Jun 2007 to the low of 86.3800 in Apr 2009 or 21.8 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased from 86.3800 in Apr 2009 to 99.9350 in Mar 2020 or 15.7 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased at the annual equivalent rate of 3.5 percent from Dec 1986 to Dec 2006. Growth at 3.5 percent would increase the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 162.5897 in Mar 2020. The NAICS index at 99.9350 in Mar 2020 is 38.5 below trend. The NAICS manufacturing output index grew at 1.7 percent annual equivalent from Dec 1999 to Dec 2006. Growth at 1.7 percent would raise the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 131.1461 in Mar 2020. The NAICS index at 99.9350 in Mar 2020 is 23.8 percent below trend under this alternative calculation.

Chart V-3A, United States Manufacturing (NAICS) NSA, Jun 2007 to Mar 2020

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm

Chart V-3B provides the civilian noninstitutional population of the United States, or those available for work. The civilian noninstitutional population increased from 231.713 million in Jun 2007 to 259.758 million in Mar 2020 or 28.045 million.

Chart V-3B, United States, Civilian Noninstitutional Population, Million, NSA, Jan 2007 to Mar 2020

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/

Chart V-3C provides nonfarm payroll manufacturing jobs in the United States from Jan 2007 to Mar 2020. Nonfarm payroll manufacturing jobs fell from 13.987 million in Jun 2007 to 12.783 million in Mar 2020, or 1.204 million.

Chart V-3C, United States, Payroll Manufacturing Jobs, NSA, Jan 2007 to Mar 2020, Thousands

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/

Chart V-3D provides the index of US manufacturing (NAICS) from Jan 1972 to Mar 2020. The index continued increasing during the decline of manufacturing jobs after the early 1980s. There are likely effects of changes in the composition of manufacturing with also changes in productivity and trade.

Chart V-3D, United States Manufacturing (NAICS) NSA, Jan 1972 to Mar 2020

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm

Chart V-3E provides the US noninstitutional civilian population, or those in condition of working, from Jan 1948, when first available, to Mar 2020. The noninstitutional civilian population increased from 170.042 million in Jun 1981 to 259.758 million in Mar 2020, or 89.716 million.

Chart V-3E, United States, Civilian Noninstitutional Population, Million, NSA, Jan 1948 to Mar 2020

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/

Chart V-3F provides manufacturing jobs in the United States from Jan 1939 to Mar 2020. Nonfarm payroll manufacturing jobs decreased from a peak of 18.890 million in Jun 1981 to 12.783 million in Mar 2020.

Chart V-3C, United States, Payroll Manufacturing Jobs, NSA, Jan 1939 to Mar 2020, Thousands

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/

There is global stress in manufacturing. Table V-3B provides month and 12-month percentage changes of new orders in manufacturing and output of manufacturing in Germany.

Table V-3B, Germany, Manufacturing Orders and Manufacturing Output, ∆% Month and 12 Months

	MFG New Orders Month ∆%	MFG New Orders 12 Months ∆%	MFG Output Month ∆%	MFG Output 12 Month ∆%
Mar 2020	-15.6	-12.5	-11.5	-10.0
Feb	-1.2	0.7	0.4	-4.1
Jan	4.8	-1.9	1.9	-4.5
Dec 2019	-1.5	-7.1	-1.5	-4.5
Nov	-1.2	-8.5	0.7	-6.9
Oct	-0.4	-5.4	-1.2	-5.6
Sep	1.2	-1.8	-0.8	-1.1
Aug	-0.4	-9.0	0.2	-7.4
Jul	-0.7	-1.8	-0.2	-0.6
Jun	1.4	-11.0	-1.2	-14.4
May	-1.6	-3.6	0.9	1.3
Apr	-0.7	-5.2	-2.6	-3.9
Mar	2.2	-6.2	0.7	-3.4
Feb	-3.8	-7.2	-0.1	0.1
Jan	-3.4	-3.6	-1.0	-3.1
Dec 2018	1.5	-8.2	1.1	-6.7
Dec 2017	2.5	3.9	-0.4	3.7
Dec 2016	4.4	11.2	-1.6	2.0
Dec 2015	-1.6	-0.5	0.8	1.1

Source: Federal Statistical Agency of Germany, https://www.destatis.de/EN/Home/_node.html

Table V-3 provides the latest available estimates of GDP for the regions and countries followed in this blog from IQ2012 to IVQ2018 available now for all countries. There are estimates for all countries for IQ2019 and for IIQ2019 for most countries. There are preliminary estimates for most countries for IIIQ2019 and for IVQ2019. There are some estimates for IQ2020. Growth is weak throughout most of the world.

• Japan. The GDP of Japan increased 1.2 percent in IQ2012, 4.9 percent at SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) and 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier but part of the jump could be the low level a year earlier because of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan is experiencing difficulties with the overvalued yen because of worldwide capital flight originating in zero interest rates with risk aversion in an environment of softer growth of world trade. Japan’s GDP fell 0.7 percent in IIQ2012 at the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of minus 2.9 percent, which is much lower than 4.9 percent in IQ2012. Growth of 2.9 percent in IIQ2012 in Japan relative to IIQ2011 has effects of the low level of output because of Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IIIQ2012 at the SAAR of minus 1.5 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2012 at the SAAR of 1.1 percent and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan grew 1.2 percent in IQ2013 at the SAAR of 5.0 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2013 at the SAAR of 3.1 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP grew 0.8 percent in IIIQ2013 at the SAAR of 3.4 percent and increased 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Japan’s GDP changed 0.0 percent at the SAAR of minus 0.1 percent, increasing 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 1.0 percent in IQ2014 at the SAAR of 4.0 percent and increased 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Japan’s GDP fell 1.9 percent at the SAAR of minus 7.4 percent and fell 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 at the SAAR of 0.4 percent and fell 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, Japan’s GDP grew 0.5 percent, at the SAAR of 2.0 percent, decreasing 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 1.4 percent in IQ2015 at the SAAR of 5.6 percent and increased 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2015 at the SAAR of 0.5 percent and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan decreased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2015 at the SAAR of minus 0.2 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IVQ2015 at the SAAR of minus 1.5 percent and grew 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, the GDP of Japan increased 0.5 percent at the SAAR of 2.0 percent and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2016 at the SAAR of 0.6 percent and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of Japan increased 0.2 percent at the SAAR of 0.9 percent and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2016 at the SAAR of 1.1 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, the GDP of Japan increased 1.1 percent at the SAAR of 4.7 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2017 at the SAAR of 1.5 percent and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, the GDP of Japan increased 0.6 percent at the SAAR of 2.3 percent and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2017, at the SAAR of 1.8 percent, and increased 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, the GDP of Japan decreased 0.5 percent, at the SAAR of minus 1.9 percent and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2018, at the SAAR of 2.0 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, the GDP of Japan contracted 0.8 percent at the SAAR of minus 3.3 percent and decreased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IVQ2018, at the SAAR of 2.4 percent and decreased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, the GDP of Japan increased 0.5 percent at the SAAR of 2.2 percent and grew 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2019, at the SAAR of 2.3 percent and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, the GDP of Japan changed 0.0 percent at the SAAR of 0.1 percent and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP decreased 1.8 percent in IVQ2019, at the SAAR of minus 7.1 percent and decreased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier.
• China. China’s GDP grew 1.9 percent in IQ2012, annualizing to 7.8 percent, and 8.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 2.1 percent in IIQ2012, which annualizes to 8.7 percent, and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 1.8 percent in IIIQ2012, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and 7.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, China grew at 2.0 percent, which annualizes at 8.2 percent, and 8.1 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, China grew at 1.9 percent, which annualizes at 7.8 percent, and 7.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, China grew at 1.8 percent, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 2.1 percent in IIIQ2013, which annualizes at 8.7 percent, and increased 7.9 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 1.6 percent in IVQ2013, which annualized to 6.6 percent, and 7.7 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP grew 1.8 percent in IQ2014, which annualizes to 7.4 percent, and 7.5 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP grew 1.8 percent in IIQ2014, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP grew 1.8 percent in IIIQ2014, which is equivalent to 7.4 percent in a year, and 7.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew 1.7 percent in IVQ2014, which annualizes at 7.0 percent, and 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 1.8 percent in IQ2015, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew 1.8 percent in IIQ2015, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and increased 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2015, China’s GDP grew at 1.7 percent, which annualizes at 7.0 percent, and increased 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 1.6 percent in IVQ2015, which annualizes at 6.6 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew 1.5 percent in IQ2016, which annualizes at 6.1 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2016, the GDP of China increased 1.8 percent, which annualizes to 7.4 percent, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China increased at 1.7 percent in IIIQ2016, which annualizes at 7.0 percent, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China increased at 1.6 percent in IVQ2016, which annualizes at 6.6 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China increased at 1.7 percent in IQ2017, which annualizes at 7.0 percent and increased 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP increased at 1.8 percent in IIQ2017, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and increased 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China increased 1.6 percent in IIIQ2017, which annualizes at 6.6 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP increased at 1.5 percent in IVQ2017, which annualizes at 6.1 percent, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 1.7 percent in IQ2018, which annualizes to 7.0 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP increased at 1.7 percent in IIQ2018, which annualizes at 7.0 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 1.5 percent in IIIQ2018, which annualizes to 6.1 percent, and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP increased 1.5 percent in IVQ2018, which annualized at 6.1 percent, and increased 6.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 1.6 percent in IQ2019, which annualizes at 6.6 percent and increased 6.4 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP increased 1.5 percent in IIQ2019, which annualized at 6.1 percent, and increased 6.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 1.3 percent in IIIQ2019, which annualizes at 5.3 percent and increased 6.0 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP grew 1.5 percent in IVQ2019, which annualizes at 6.1 percent, and grew 6.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China contracted at 9.8 percent in IQ2020, which annualizes at minus 71.0 percent, and decreased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. There was decennial change in leadership in China (http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/special/18cpcnc/index.htm). Xi Jinping initiated a second term of leadership in Oct 2017 (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-10/25/c_136705344.htm). Growth rates of GDP of China in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier have been declining from 2011 to 2020.
• Euro Area. GDP fell 0.2 percent in the euro area in IQ2012 and decreased 0.5 in IQ2012 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP contracted 0.3 percent IIQ2012 and fell 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.1 percent and declined 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.4 percent relative to the prior quarter and fell 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, the GDP of the euro area fell 0.4 percent and decreased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2013, euro area GDP increased 0.3 percent and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2013 and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The euro area’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 0.7 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The euro area’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2016 and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, euro area GDP increased 0.7 percent and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2017 and increased 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.8 percent and grew 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area grew 0.8 percent in IVQ2017 and increased 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent and grew 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area grew 0.4 percent in IIQ2018 and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2018 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2019 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2019 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier.
• Germany. The GDP of Germany increased 0.2 percent in IQ2012 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier but 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier when adjusted for calendar effects (CA). In IIIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IVQ2012 and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, Germany’s GDP decreased 0.5 percent and fell 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 1.1 percent and grew 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2013 and grew 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 1.0 percent in IQ2014 and grew 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Germany’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.9 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany decreased 0.2 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2015 and grew 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2015 and grew 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2015 and grew 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, the GDP of Germany increased 0.8 percent and grew 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 3.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of Germany increased 0.2 percent and grew 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2016 and grew 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, the GDP of Germany increased 1.2 percent and grew 3.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2017 and grew 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier and 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier adjusting for calendar effects (CA). In IIIQ2017, the GDP of Germany increased 0.9 percent and increased 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier and 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2017, 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier and 3.4 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany increased 0.1 percent in IQ2018 and grew 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier and 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2018, 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier and 2.1 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany decreased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2018, increasing 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier and 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP changed 0.2 percent in IVQ2018, increasing 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier and 0.6 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany increased 0.5 percent in IQ2019, increasing 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier and increasing 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP contracted 0.2 percent in IIQ2019, decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier and increased 0.3 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2019, increasing 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier and increasing 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2019, increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier (CA).
• United States. Growth of US GDP in IQ2012 was 0.8 percent, at SAAR of 3.2 percent and higher by 2.7 percent relative to IQ2011. US GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2012, 1.7 percent at SAAR and 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, US GDP grew 0.1 percent, 0.5 percent at SAAR and 2.5 percent relative to IIIQ2011. In IVQ2012, US GDP grew 0.1 percent, 0.5 percent at SAAR and 1.5 percent relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, US GDP grew at 3.6 percent SAAR, 0.9 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.6 percent relative to the same quarter in 2012. In IIQ2013, US GDP grew at 0.5 percent in SAAR, 0.1 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.3 percent relative to IIQ2012. US GDP grew at 3.2 percent in SAAR in IIIQ2013, 0.8 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.9 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/05/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/03/weekly-rise-of-valuations-of-risk.html). In IVQ2013, US GDP grew 0.8 percent at 3.2 percent SAAR and 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, US GDP decreased 0.3 percent, increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier and fell 1.1 percent at SAAR. In IIQ2014, US GDP increased 1.4 percent at 5.5 percent SAAR and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP increased 1.2 percent in IIIQ2014 at 5.0 percent SAAR and increased 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, US GDP increased 0.6 percent at SAAR of 2.3 percent and increased 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IQ2015 at SAAR of 3.2 percent and grew 4.0 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 3.0 percent in IIQ2015, increasing 0.7 percent in the quarter and 3.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2015 at SAAR of 1.3 percent and grew 2.4 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 0.1 percent in IVQ2015, increasing 0.0 percent in the quarter and 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, US GDP grew 0.5 percent at SAAR of 2.0 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 1.9 percent in IIQ2016, increasing 0.5 percent in the quarter and 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, US GDP grew 0.5 percent at SAAR of 2.2 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.0 percent in IVQ2016, increasing 0.5 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, US GDP grew 0.6 percent at SAAR of 2.3 percent and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.2 percent in IIQ2017, increasing 0.5 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, US GDP grew 0.8 percent at SAAR of 3.2 percent and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 3.5 percent in IVQ2017, increasing 0.9 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.5 percent, increasing 0.6 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 3.5 percent in IIQ2018, increasing 0.9 percent in the quarter, and increasing 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.9 percent, increasing 0.7 percent in the quarter, and increasing 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 1.1 percent in IVQ2018, increasing 0.3 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, US GDP grew at SAAR of 3.1 percent, increasing 0.8 percent in the quarter and increasing 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.0 percent in IIQ2019, increasing 0.5 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.1 percent, increasing 0.5 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.1 percent in IVQ2019, increasing 0.5 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2020, US GDP contracted at SAAR of minus 4.8 percent, decreasing 1.2 percent in the quarter, and increasing 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier.
• United Kingdom. In IQ2012, UK GDP increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, GDP fell 0.1 percent relative to IQ2012 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, GDP increased 1.2 percent and increased 2.0 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier. In IVQ2012, GDP fell 0.2 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Fiscal consolidation in an environment of weakening economic growth is much more challenging. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 0.6 percent in IQ2013 relative to IVQ2012. In IIQ2013, GDP increased 0.5 percent and 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.9 percent in IIIQ2013 and 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2013 and 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, GDP increased 0.7 percent and 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2014 and 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2014 and 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, GDP increased 0.6 percent and 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2015 and increased 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2016 and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2016 and grew 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IVQ2016 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2017 and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2017 and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, GDP increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2017 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2018 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, GDP increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2018 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, GDP increased 0.7 percent and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IIQ2019 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, GDP increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2019 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2020, GDP decreased 2.0 percent and decreased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier.
• Italy. In IVQ2019, the GDP of Italy decreased 0.3 percent and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2019 and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2019, Italy’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2019 and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2018, the GDP of Italy increased 0.1 percent and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2018 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2018, the GDP of Italy changed 0.0 percent and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2018 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, the GDP of Italy increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2017 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2017, the GDP of Italy increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, the GDP of Italy increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2016, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2015, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IVQ2014 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.1 percent in IQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IVQ2013 and fell 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2013 and fell 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.8 percent in IQ2013 and declined 2.9 percent relative to IQ2013. GDP had been growing during six consecutive quarters but at very low rates from IQ2010 to IIQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell in seven consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at increasingly higher rates of contraction from 0.5 percent in IIIQ2011 to 0.9 percent in IVQ2011, 1.1 percent in IQ2012, 0.8 percent in IIQ2012 and 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012. The pace of decline accelerated to minus 0.8 percent in IVQ2012 and minus 0.8 percent in IQ2013. GDP contracted cumulatively 5.3 percent in seven consecutive quarterly contractions from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at the annual equivalent rate of minus 3.1 percent. The year-on-year rate has fallen from 2.2 percent in IVQ2010 to minus 3.2 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.9 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.2 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.5 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.9 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.3 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.5 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.2 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IIIQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.4 percent in IVQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.8 percent in IIQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IIIQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.9 percent in IVQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.3 percent in IQ2018 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.9 percent in IIQ2018 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2018 relative to a year earlier and changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2018 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2019 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2019 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIIQ2019 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2019 relative to a year earlier. Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/), the GDP of Italy in IVQ2019 of €430,058.5million (https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/239232) is lower by 5.0 percent relative to €452,802.5 million in IQ2008 (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/). Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/), the GDP of Italy increased from €392,018.4 million in IQ1998 to €452,802.5 million in IQ2008 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.5 percent. The fiscal adjustment of Italy is significantly more difficult with the economy not growing especially on the prospects of increasing government revenue. The strategy is for reforms to improve productivity, facilitating future fiscal consolidation.
• France. France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2012 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IIQ2012 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2013 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2013 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2013 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2015, France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2015, the GDP of France increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France decreased 0.3 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, the GDP of France increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2017, the GDP of France increased 0.7 percent and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIIQ2017 and increased 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, the GDP of France increased 0.8 percent and increased 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2018 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2018, the GDP of France increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2018 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2018, the GDP of France increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2019 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2019, the GDP of France increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2019 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2019 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2019, the GDP of France decreased 0.1 percent and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier.

Table V-3, Percentage Changes of GDP Quarter on Prior Quarter and on Same Quarter Year Earlier, ∆%

	IQ2012/IVQ2011	IQ2012/IQ2011
USA	QOQ: 0.8        SAAR: 3.2	2.7
Japan	QOQ: 1.2 SAAR: 4.9	3.1
China	1.9 AE 7.8	8.1
Euro Area	-0.2	-0.5
Germany	0.2	1.5 CA 1.0
France	0.1	0.6
Italy	-1.1	-2.3
United Kingdom	0.6	1.2
	IIQ2012/IQ2012	IIQ2012/IIQ2011
USA	QOQ: 0.4         SAAR: 1.7	2.4
Japan	QOQ: -0.7 SAAR: -2.9	2.9
China	2.1 AE 8.7	7.6
Euro Area	-0.3	-0.8
Germany	0.2	0.4 CA 0.9
France	-0.2	0.4
Italy	-0.8	-3.2
United Kingdom	-0.1	1.1
	IIIQ2012/ IIQ2012	IIIQ2012/ IIIQ2011
USA	QOQ: 0.1  SAAR: 0.5	2.5
Japan	QOQ: –0.4 SAAR: –1.5	-0.1
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.5
Euro Area	-0.1	-1.0
Germany	0.3	-0.1
France	0.2	0.4
Italy	-0.5	-3.3
United Kingdom	1.2	2.0
	IVQ2012/IIIQ2012	IVQ2012/IVQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.5	1.5
Japan	QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.1	0.3
China	2.0 AE 8.2	8.1
Euro Area	-0.4	-1.1
Germany	-0.4	-0.1
France	-0.1	0.0
Italy	-0.8	-3.2
United Kingdom	-0.2	1.6
	IQ2013/IVQ2012	IQ2013/IQ2012
United States	QOQ: 0.9 SAAR: 3.6	1.6
Japan	QOQ: 1.2 SAAR: 5.0	0.4
China	1.9 AE 7.8	7.9
Euro Area	-0.4	-1.2
Germany	-0.5	-1.5
France	0.0	-0.1
Italy	-0.8	-2.9
UK	0.6	1.6
	IIQ2013/IQ2013	IIQ2013/IIQ2012
USA	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.5	1.3
Japan	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.1	1.9
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.6
Euro Area	0.5	-0.4
Germany	1.1	0.8
France	0.7	0.8
Italy	0.0	-2.2
UK	0.5	2.3
	IIIQ2013/IIQ2013	III/Q2013/IIIQ2012
USA	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.2	1.9
Japan	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.4	3.0
China	2.1 AE 8.7	7.9
Euro Area	0.3	0.0
Germany	0.5	1.2
France	0.0	0.6
Italy	0.2	-1.5
UK	0.9	2.0
	IVQ2013/IIIQ2013	IVQ2013/IVQ2012
USA	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.2	2.6
Japan	QOQ: 0.0 SAAR: -0.1	2.7
China	1.6 AE 6.6	7.7
Euro Area	0.2	0.7
Germany	0.3	1.2
France	0.5	1.1
Italy	-0.2	-0.9
UK	0.5	2.7
	IQ2014/IVQ2013	IQ2014/IQ2013
USA	QOQ -0.3 SAAR -1.1	1.4
Japan	QOQ: 1.0 SAAR: 4.0	3.0
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.5
Euro Area	0.5	1.5
Germany	1.0	3.2
France	0.1	1.2
Italy	0.1	0.1
UK	0.7	2.7
	IIQ2014/IQ2014	IIQ2014/IIQ2013
USA	QOQ 1.4 SAAR 5.5	2.7
Japan	QOQ: -1.9 SAAR: -7.4	-0.1
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.6
Euro Area	0.2	1.2
Germany	0.0	1.4
France	0.2	0.7
Italy	0.0	0.1
UK	0.7	2.8
	IIIQ2014/IIQ2014	IIIQ2014/IIIQ2013
USA	QOQ: 1.2 SAAR: 5.0	3.1
Japan	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.4	-0.9
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.2
Euro Area	0.5	1.4
Germany	0.5	1.8
France	0.5	1.2
Italy	0.1	0.0
UK	0.6	2.4
	IVQ2014/IIIQ2014	IVQ2014/IVQ2013
USA	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.3	2.9
Japan	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.0	-0.5
China	1.7 AE 7.0	7.3
Euro Area	0.4	1.6
Germany	0.9	2.4
France	0.1	0.8
Italy	-0.2	0.0
UK	0.6	2.5
	IQ2015/IVQ2014	IQ2015/IQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.2	4.0
Japan	QOQ: 1.4 SAAR: 5.6	0.0
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.1
Euro Area	0.7	1.8
Germany	-0.2	1.3
France	0.4	1.2
Italy	0.2	0.1
UK	0.5	2.3
	IIQ2015/IQ2015	IIQ2015/IIQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 3.0	3.4
Japan	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.5	2.2
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.1
Euro Area	0.4	2.1
Germany	0.6	1.8
France	0.0	1.0
Italy	0.4	0.5
UK	0.7	2.4
	IIIQ2015/IIQ2015	IIIQ2015/IIIQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.3	2.4
Japan	QOQ: -0.1 SAAR: -0.2	1.9
China	1.7 AE 7.0	7.0
Euro Area	0.5	2.0
Germany	0.5	1.8
France	0.4	0.9
Italy	0.2	0.6
UK	0.4	2.2
	IVQ2015/IIIQ2015	IVQ2015/IVQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.0 SAAR: 0.1	1.9
Japan	QOQ: -0.4 SAAR: -1.5	0.9
China	1.6 AE 6.6	6.9
Euro Area	0.4	2.1
Germany	0.4	2.1
France	0.2	1.0
Italy	0.5	1.3
UK	0.7	2.4
	IQ2016/IVQ2015	IQ2016/IQ2015
USA	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.0	1.6
Japan	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.0	0.2
China	1.5 AE 6.1	6.9
Euro Area	0.6	1.9
Germany	0.8	2.0
France	0.6	1.2
Italy	0.3	1.5
UK	0.2	2.1
	IIQ2016/IQ2016	IIQ2016/IIQ2015
USA	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 1.9	1.3
Japan	QOQ: 0.2 SAAR: 0.6	0.2
China	1.8 AE 7.4	6.8
Euro Area	0.3	1.8
Germany	0.6	3.7
France	-0.3	1.0
Italy	0.2	1.2
UK	0.5	1.9
	IIIQ2016/IIQ2016	IIIQ2016/IIIQ2015
USA	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.2	1.6
Japan	QOQ: 0.2 SAAR: 0.9	0.5
China	1.7 AE 7.0	6.8
Euro Area	0.4	1.8
Germany	0.2	1.9
France	0.2	0.8
Italy	0.5	1.6
UK	0.5	1.9
	IVQ2016/IIIQ2016	IVQ2016/IVQ2015
USA	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.0	2.0
Japan	QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.1	1.2
China	1.6 AE 6.6	6.9
Euro Area	0.8	2.1
Germany	0.4	1.4
France	0.6	1.2
Italy	0.3	1.4
UK	0.6	1.8
	IQ2017/IVQ2016	IQ2017/IQ2016
USA	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.3	2.1
Japan	QOQ: 1.1 SAAR: 4.7	1.8
China	1.7 AE 7.0	7.0
Euro Area	0.7	2.2
Germany	1.2	3.6
France	0.8	1.4
Italy	0.6	1.6
UK	0.6	2.2
	IIQ2017/IQ2017	IIQ2017/IIQ2016
USA	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.2	2.2
Japan	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.5	2.0
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.0
Euro Area	0.7	2.6
Germany	0.6	1.0 CA 2.3
France	0.7	2.4
Italy	0.3	1.8
UK	0.3	1.9
	IIIQ2017/IIQ2017	IIIQ2017/IIIQ2016
USA	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.2	2.4
Japan	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.3	2.4
China	1.6 AE 6.6	6.9
Euro Area	0.8	2.9
Germany	0.9	2.5 CA 3.0
France	0.7	2.8
Italy	0.4	1.6
UK	0.3	1.8
	IVQ2017/IIIQ2017	IVQ2017/IVQ2016
USA	QOQ: 0.9 SAAR: 3.5	2.8
Japan	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.8	2.5
China	1.5 AE 6.1	6.8
Euro Area	0.8	3.0
Germany	0.7	2.8 CA 3.4
France	0.8	3.0
Italy	0.5	1.9
UK	0.4	1.6
	IQ2018/IVQ2017	IQ2018/IQ2017
USA	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.5	2.9
Japan	QOQ: -0.5 SAAR: -1.9	0.9
China	1.7 AE 7.0	6.9
Euro Area	0.3	2.6
Germany	0.1	1.6 CA 2.3
France	0.2	2.4
Italy	0.1	1.3
UK	0.1	1.1
	IIQ2018/IQ2018	IIQ2018/IIQ2017
USA	QOQ: 0.9 SAAR: 3.5	3.2
Japan	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.0	1.0
China	1.7 AE 7.0	6.9
Euro Area	0.4	2.2
Germany	0.4	2.5 CA 2.1
France	0.2	1.9
Italy	0.0	0.9
UK	0.5	1.3
	IIIQ2018/IIQ2018	IIIQ2018/IIIQ2017
USA	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.9	3.1
Japan	QOQ -0.8 SAAR: -3.3	-0.3
China	1.5 AE 6.1	6.7
Euro Area	0.2	1.6
Germany	-0.1	1.1 CA 1.1
France	0.3	1.5
Italy	-0.1	0.4
UK	0.6	1.6
	IVQ2018IIIQ2018	IVQ2018/IVQ2017
USA	QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.1	2.5
Japan	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.4	-0.3
China	1.5 AE 6.1	6.5
Euro Area	0.4	1.2
Germany	0.2	0.9 CA 0.6
France	0.5	1.2
Italy	0.1	0.0
UK	0.2	1.4
	IQ2019/IV2018	IQ2019/IQ2018
USA	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.1	2.7
Japan	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.2	0.8
China	1.6 AE 6.6	6.4
Euro Area	0.5	1.4
Germany	0.5	0.9 CA 1.0
France	0.3	1.3
Italy	0.2	0.2
UK	0.7	2.0
	IIQ2019/IQ2019	IIQ2019/IIQ2018
USA	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.0	2.3
Japan	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.3	0.9
China	1.5 AE 6.1	6.2
Euro Area	0.1	1.2
Germany	-0.2	-0.1 CA 0.3
France	0.4	1.5
Italy	0.1	0.4
UK	-0.2	1.3
	IIIQ2019/IIQ2019	IIIQ2019/IIIQ2018
USA	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR 2.1	2.1
Japan	QOQ: 0.0 SAAR: 0.1	1.7
China	1.3 AE 5.3	6.0
Euro Area	0.3	1.3
Germany	0.2	1.1 CA 0.6
France	0.3	1.5
Italy	0.1	0.5
UK	0.5	1.3
	IVQ2019/IIIQ2019	IVQ2019/IVQ2018
USA	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.1	2.3
Japan	QOQ: -1.8 SAAR: -7.1	-0.7
China	1.5 AE 6.1	6.0
Euro Area	0.1	1.0
Germany	0.0	0.3 CA 0.4
France	-0.1	0.9
Italy	-0.3	0.1
UK	0.0	1.1
	IQ2020/IVQ2019	IQ2020/IQ2019
USA	QOQ: -1.2 SAAR: -4.8	0.3
China	-9.8 (-71.0)	-6.8
UK	-2.0	-1.6

QOQ: Quarter relative to prior quarter; SAAR: seasonally adjusted annual rate

Source: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.bls.gov/bls/other.htm https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/related-sites.html

Table V-4 provides two types of data: growth of exports and imports in the latest available months and in the past 12 months; and contributions of net trade (exports less imports) to growth of real GDP.

• Japan. Japan provides the most worrisome data (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/global-decline-of-values-of-financial.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/07/valuation-of-risk-financial-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/fluctuating-financial-asset-valuations.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/dollar-revaluation-squeezing-corporate.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/patience-on-interest-rate-increases.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/monetary-policy-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/valuation-risks-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/interest-rate-risks-world-inflation.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/global-financial-risk-world-inflation.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations_8763.html http://cmpass ocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/paring-quantitative-easing-policy-and_4699.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/thirty-one-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/12/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_24.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/11/contraction-of-united-states-real_25.html and for GDP http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what_13.html). In Mar 2020, Japan’s exports decreased 11.7 percent in 12 months while imports decreased 5.0 percent. The second part of Table V-4 shows that net trade added 0.8 percent in IQ2012, deducting 2.0 percent in IIQ2012. Net trade deducted 1.9 percent in IIIQ2012. Net traded deducted 0.4 percent in IVQ2012. Net trade added 1.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2013 but deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIQ2013, deducting 1.4 percentage points in IIIQ2013 and 2.2 percentage points in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2014. Net trade added 4.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2014 and deducted 0.3 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 1.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2014. Net trade contributed 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2015 and deducted 0.5-percentage points in IIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2015. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2015 and added 1.4 percentage points in IQ2016. Net trade contributed 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade added 1.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2016 and contributed 1.4 percentage points in IVQ2016.  Net trade contributed 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017 and deducted 0.9 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade contributed 2.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017 and deducted 0.3 percentage-point in IVQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018 and contributed 0.0 percentage points in IIQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018 and deducted 1.7 percentage points in IVQ2018. Net trade contributed 1.8 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2019 with export contraction deducting 1.4 percent and import contraction contributing 3.3 percent. Net trade deducted 1.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2019. Net trade deducted 1.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade contributed 1.9 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2019.

• China. In Apr 2020, China exports increased 8.2 percent relative to a year earlier and imports decreased 10.2 percent.
• Germany. Germany’s exports decreased 11.8 percent in the month of Mar 2020 and decreased 7.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2020. Germany’s imports decreased 5.1 percent in the month of Mar 2020 and decreased 4.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2020. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to growth of GDP in IQ2012, contributed 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2012, contributed 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2012, deducted 0.5 percentage points in IVQ2012, deducted 0.3 percentage points in IQ2013 and deducted 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded deducted 0.0 percentage points from Germany’s GDP growth in IIIQ2013 and added 0.9 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2014 and added 0.7 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points in IVQ2015 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade added 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2017. Net trade added 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018 and deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.5 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2019. Net traded added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2019.
• United Kingdom. Net trade contributed 0.7 percentage points in IIQ2013. In IIIQ2013, net trade deducted 1.7 percentage points from UK growth. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to UK value added in IVQ2013. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to UK value added in IQ2014 and 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2014 and added 0.0 percentage points in IVQ2014. Net traded deducted 0.4 percentage points from growth in IQ2015. Net trade added 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.1-percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 1.8 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade added 1.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2016. Net trade added 0.33 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017 and contributed 0.01 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.11 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.14 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade added 0.02 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.26 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.44 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.00 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2018. Net trade deducted 2.49 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2019. Net trade contributed 2.71 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2019. Net trade contributed 1.36 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade contributed 1.48 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 1.91 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2020.
• France. France’s exports decreased 16.7 percent in Mar 2020 while imports decreased 18.5 percent. France’s exports decreased 18.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2020 and imports decreased 21.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Net traded added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IIIQ2012 and 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IQ2013 and added 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2013, deducting 1.7 percentage points in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IVQ2013 and deducted 0.1 percentage points in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IIQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to France’s GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.6 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015 and deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.3 percentage points to GDP in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP in IIIQ2016 and added 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP in IQ2017 and added 0.9 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade added 0.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade added 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to GDP in IVQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP in IQ2019. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ219. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2019.
• United States. US exports decreased 9.6 percent in Mar 2020 and goods exports decreased 3.1 percent in Jan-Mar 2020 relative to a year earlier. Imports decreased 6.2 percent in Mar 2020 and goods imports decreased 4.9 percent in Jan-Mar 2020 relative to a year earlier. Net trade added 0.27 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2012 and deducted 0.08 percentage points in IIIQ2012, adding 0.57 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade added 0.40 percentage points to US GDP growth in IQ2013 and deducted 0.33 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded subtracted 0.14 percentage points from US GDP growth in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 1.23 percentage points to US GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 1.11 percentage points from US GDP growth in IQ2014 and deducted 0.46 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade added 0.10 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2014. Net trade deducted 1.05 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 1.67 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.06 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015. Net trade deducted 1.00 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.20 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.50 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.35 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade added 0.05 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade deducted 1.36 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2016.  Net trade added 0.13 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017.  Net trade deducted 0.31 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2017. Net trade added 0.35 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.80 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.00 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2018. Net trade added 0.67 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade deducted 2.05 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018, deducting 0.35 percentage points in IVQ2018. Net trade added 0.73 percentage points in IQ2019, deducting 0.68 percentage points in IIQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.14 percentage points in IIIQ2019. Net trade added 1.51 percentage points in IVQ2019, adding 1.30 percentage points in IQ2020.

Industrial production decreased 5.4 percent in Mar 2020 and increased 0.5 percent in Feb 2020 after decreasing 0.5 percent in Jan 2020. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System conducted the annual revision of industrial production released on Mar 27, 2019 (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/revisions/Current/DefaultRev.htm):

“The Federal Reserve has revised its index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization.[1] On net, the revisions to the growth rates for total IP for recent years were small and positive, with the estimates for 2016 and 2017 a bit higher and the estimates for 2015 and 2018 slightly lower.[2] Total IP is still reported to have increased from the end of the recession in mid-2009 through late 2014 before declining in 2015 and rebounding in mid-2016. Subsequently, the index advanced around 7 1/2 percent over 2017 and 2018.

Capacity for total industry expanded modestly in each year from 2015 to 2017 before advancing 1 1/2 percent in 2018; it is expected to advance about 2 percent in 2019. Revisions for recent years were very small and showed slightly less expansion in most years relative to earlier reports.

In the fourth quarter of 2018, capacity utilization for total industry stood at 79.4 percent, about 3/4 percentage point above its previous estimate and about 1/2 percentage point below its long-run (1972–2018) average. The utilization rate in 2017 is also higher than its previous estimate.”

The report of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System states (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/default.htm):

“Total industrial production fell 5.4 percent in March, as the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic led many factories to suspend operations late in the month. Manufacturing output fell 6.3 percent; most major industries posted decreases, with the largest decline registered by motor vehicles and parts. The decreases for total industrial production and for manufacturing were their largest since January 1946 and February 1946, respectively. The indexes for utilities and mining declined 3.9 percent and 2.0 percent, respectively. At 103.7 percent of its 2012 average, the level of total industrial production in March was 5.5 percent lower than a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 4.3 percentage points to 72.7 percent in March, a rate that is 7.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2019) average. The estimates in this release incorporated data on stay-at-home orders as well as other information on industrial activity for late in the month. An explanation of the methods used to construct the estimates is available on the Federal Reserve Board's website at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/g17_technical_qa.htm#covid2020. Capacity utilization for manufacturing in March was 70.3 percent, 4.7 percentage points lower than in February and 7.9 percentage points below its long-run average. The operating rate for durable manufacturing dropped to 67.8 percent, about 9 percentage points below its long-run average, held down by decreases in every major industry group. Capacity utilization for nondurables fell 2.5 percentage points to 73.9 percent, about 6 percentage points below its long-run average. Utilization rates for printing and support, for textile and product mills, and for apparel and leather all recorded drops of nearly 10 percentage points or more.” In the six months ending in Mar 2020, United States national industrial production accumulated change of minus 5.3 percent at the annual equivalent rate of minus 10.3 percent, which is lower than growth of minus 5.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2020. Excluding growth of 0.9 percent in Nov 2019, growth in the remaining five months from Oct 2019 to Mar 2020 accumulated to minus 6.2 percent or minus 14.1 percent annual equivalent. Industrial production increased 0.9 percent in one of the past six months, 0.5 percent in one month, minus 5.4 percent in one month, minus 0.5 percent in one month, and minus 0.4 percent in two months. Industrial production decreased at annual equivalent 19.9 percent in the most recent quarter from Jan 2020 to Mar 2020 and increased at 0.4 percent annual equivalent in the prior quarter from Oct to Dec 2019. Business equipment accumulated change of minus 10.7 percent in the six months from Oct 2019 to Mar 2020, at the annual equivalent rate of minus 20.3 percent, which is lower than growth of minus 12.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2020. The Fed analyzes capacity utilization of total industry in its report (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm): ” Capacity utilization for manufacturing in March was 70.3 percent, 4.7 percentage points lower than in February and 7.9 percentage points below its long-run average. The operating rate for durable manufacturing dropped to 67.8 percent, about 9 percentage points below its long-run average, held down by decreases in every major industry group. Capacity utilization for nondurables fell 2.5 percentage points to 73.9 percent, about 6 percentage points below its long-run average. Utilization rates for printing and support, for textile and product mills, and for apparel and leather all recorded drops of nearly 10 percentage points or more.” United States industry apparently decelerated to a lower growth rate followed by possible acceleration, weakening growth in past months and deep contraction in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID 19 event. There could be renewed growth with oscillations.

Manufacturing decreased 22.3 percent from the peak in Jun 2007 to the trough in Apr 2009 and increased 18.3 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Dec 2019. Manufacturing grew 12.9 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Mar 2020. Manufacturing in Mar 2020 is lower by 12.3 percent relative to the peak in Jun 2007. The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. US economic growth has been at only 2.1 percent on average in the cyclical expansion in the 43 quarters from IIIQ2009 to IQ2020. Boskin (2010Sep) measures that the US economy grew at 6.2 percent in the first four quarters and 4.5 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the second quarter of 1975; and at 7.7 percent in the first four quarters and 5.8 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the first quarter of 1983 (Professor Michael J. Boskin, Summer of Discontent, Wall Street Journal, Sep 2, 2010 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882304575465462926649950.html). There are new calculations using the revision of US GDP and personal income data since 1929 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (http://bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) and the first estimate of GDP for IQ2020 (https://www.bea.gov/system/files/2020-04/gdp1q20_adv.pdf). The average of 7.7 percent in the first four quarters of major cyclical expansions is in contrast with the rate of growth in the first four quarters of the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010 of only 2.8 percent obtained by dividing GDP of $15,557.3 billion in IIQ2010 by GDP of $15,134.1 billion in IIQ2009 {[($15,557.3/$15,134.1) -1]100 = 2.8%], or accumulating the quarter on quarter growth rates (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/05/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/03/weekly-rise-of-valuations-of-risk.html). The expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1986 was at the average annual growth rate of 5.7 percent, 5.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1986, 5.1 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1986, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1989, 4.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1989, 4.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1989, 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1989. 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1990, 4.4 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1990, 4.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1990, 4.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1990, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ2019, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1993 and at 7.9 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/05/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/03/weekly-rise-of-valuations-of-risk.html). The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dates a contraction of the US from IQ1990 (Jul) to IQ1991 (Mar) (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html). The expansion lasted until another contraction beginning in IQ2001 (Mar). US GDP contracted 1.3 percent from the pre-recession peak of $8983.9 billion of chained 2009 dollars in IIIQ1990 to the trough of $8865.6 billion in IQ1991 (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IQ2020 and the lockdown of economic activity in COVID-19 would have accumulated to 43.6 percent. GDP in IQ2020 would be $22,634.2 billion (in constant dollars of 2012) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $3646.3 billion than actual $18,987.9 billion. There are more than three trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 51.6 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 30.0 percent of the effective labor force with the largest part originating in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/05/fifty-two-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/04/lockdown-of-economic-activity-in.html). Unemployment is increasing sharply while employment is declining rapidly because of the lockdown of economic activity in the probable global recession resulting from the COVID-19 event (https://www.bls.gov/cps/employment-situation-covid19-faq-march-2020.pdf). US GDP in IQ2020 is 16.1 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $15,762.0 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $18,987.9 billion in IQ2020 or 20.5 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.5 percent. Professor John H. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. Cochrane (2016May02) measures GDP growth in the US at average 3.5 percent per year from 1950 to 2000 and only at 1.76 percent per year from 2000 to 2015 with only at 2.0 percent annual equivalent in the current expansion. Cochrane (2016May02) proposes drastic changes in regulation and legal obstacles to private economic activity. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 3.1 percent per year from Mar 1919 to Mar 2020. Growth at 3.1 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 157.4135 in Mar 2020. The actual index NSA in Mar 2020 is 98.5511 which is 37.4 percent below trend. The deterioration of manufacturing in Mar 2020 originates in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Manufacturing grew at the average annual rate of 3.3 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2006. Growth at 3.3 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 161.1952 in Mar 2020. The actual index NSA in Mar 2020 is 98.5511, which is 38.9 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 1.7 percent between Dec 1986 and Mar 2020. Using trend growth of 1.7 percent per year, the index would increase to 133.1389 in Mar 2020. The output of manufacturing at 98.5511 in Mar 2020 is 26.0 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Using the NAICS (North American Industry Classification System), manufacturing output fell from the high of 110.5147 in Jun 2007 to the low of 86.3800 in Apr 2009 or 21.8 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased from 86.3800 in Apr 2009 to 99.9350 in Mar 2020 or 15.7 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased at the annual equivalent rate of 3.5 percent from Dec 1986 to Dec 2006. Growth at 3.5 percent would increase the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 162.5897 in Mar 2020. The NAICS index at 99.9350 in Mar 2020 is 38.5 below trend. The NAICS manufacturing output index grew at 1.7 percent annual equivalent from Dec 1999 to Dec 2006. Growth at 1.7 percent would raise the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 131.1461 in Mar 2020. The NAICS index at 99.9350 in Mar 2020 is 23.8 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Table I-13 provides national income by industry without capital consumption adjustment (WCCA). “Private industries” or economic activities have share of 86.8 percent in IIIQ2019. Most of US national income is in the form of services. In Apr 2020, there were 131.071 million nonfarm jobs NSA in the US, according to estimates of the establishment survey of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm Table B-1). Total private jobs of 108.956 million NSA in Apr 2020 accounted for 83.1 percent of total nonfarm jobs of 131.071 million, of which 11.432 million, or 10.5 percent of total private jobs and 8.7 percent of total nonfarm jobs, were in manufacturing. Private service-providing jobs were 90.334 million NSA in Apr 2020, or 68.9 percent of total nonfarm jobs and 82.9 percent of total private-sector jobs. Manufacturing has share of 9.3 percent in US national income in IVQ2019 and durable goods 5.6 percent, as shown in Table I-13. Most income in the US originates in services. Subsidies and similar measures designed to increase manufacturing jobs will not increase economic growth and employment and may actually reduce growth by diverting resources away from currently employment-creating activities because of the drain of taxation.

Table V-4, Growth of Trade and Contributions of Net Trade to GDP Growth, ∆% and % Points

	Exports M ∆%	Exports 12 M ∆%	Imports M ∆%	Imports 12 M ∆%
USA	-9.6 Mar SA	-3.1 Jan-Mar NSA	-6.2 Mar NSA	-4.9 Jan-Mar SA
Japan		Mar 2020 -11.7 Feb 2020 -1.0 Jan 2020 -2.6 Dec 2019 -6.3 Nov 2019 -7.9 Oct 2019 -9.2 Sep 2019 -5.2 Aug 2019 -8.2 Jul 2019 -1.6 Jun 2019 -6.7 May 2019 -7.8 Apr 2019 -2.4 Mar 2019 -2.4 Feb 2019 -1.2 Jan 2019 -8.4 Dec 2018 -3.8 Nov 2018 0.1 Oct 2018 8.2 Sep 2018 -1.2 Aug 2018 6.6 Jul 2018 3.9 Jun 2018 6.7 May 2018 8.1 Apr 2018 7.8 Mar 2018 2.1 Feb 2018 1.8 Jan 2018 12.2 Dec 2017 9.3 Nov 2017 16.2 Oct 2017 14.0 Sep 2017 14.1 Aug 2017 18.1 Jul 2017 13.4 Jun 2017 9.7 May 2017 14.9 Apr 2017 7.5 Mar 2017 12.0 Feb 2017 11.3 Jan 2017 1.3 Dec 2016 5.4 Nov 2016 -0.4 Oct 2016 -10.3 Sep 2016 -6.9 Aug 2016 9.6 Jul 2016 -14.0 Jun 2016 -7.8 May 2016 -11.3 Apr 2016 -10.1 Mar 2016 -6.8 Feb 2016 -4.0 Jan 2016 -12.9 Dec 2015 -8.0 Nov 2015 -3.3 Oct 2015 -2.1 Sep 2015 0.6 Aug 3.1 Jul 2015 7.6 Jun 2015 9.5 May 2015 2.4 Apr 8.0 Mar 8.5 Feb 2.4 Jan 17.0 Dec 12.9 Nov 4.9 Oct 9.6 Sep 6.9 Aug -1.3 Jul 3.9 Jun -2.0 May 2014 -2.7 Apr 2014 5.1 Mar 2014 1.8 Feb 2014 9.5 Jan 2014 9.5 Dec 2013 15.3 Nov 2013 18.4 Oct 2013 18.6 Sep 2013 11.5 Aug 2013 14.7 Jul 2013 12.2 Jun 2013 7.4 May 2013 10.1 Apr 2013 3.8 Mar 2013 1.1 Feb 2013 -2.9 Jan 2013 6.4 Dec -5.8 Nov -4.1 Oct -6.5 Sep -10.3 Aug -5.8 Jul -8.1		Mar 2020 -5.0 Feb 2020 -14.0 Jan 2020 -3.6 Dec 2019 -4.9 Nov 2019 -15.7 Oct 2019 -14.8 Sep 2019 -1.5 Aug 2019 -12.0 Jul 2019 -1.2 Jun 2019 -5.2 May 2019 -1.5 Apr 2019 6.4 Mar 2019 1.1 Feb 2019 -6.7 Jan 2019 -0.6 Dec 2018 1.9 Nov 2018 12.5 Oct 2018 19.9 Sep 2018 7.0 Aug 2018 15.4 Jul 2018 14.6 Jun 2018 2.5 May 2018 14.0 Apr 2018 5.9 Mar 2018 -0.6 Feb 2018 16.6 Jan 2018 7.9 Dec 2017 14.9 Nov 2017 17.2 Oct 2017 18.9 Sep 2017 12.0 Aug 2017 15.2 Jul 2017 16.3 Jun 2017 15.5 May 2017 17.8 Apr 2017 15.1 Mar 2017 15.8 Feb 2017 1.2 Jan 2017 8.5 Dec 2016 -2.6 Nov 2016 -8.8 Oct 2016 -16.5 Sep 2016 -16.3 Aug 2016 -17.3 Jul 2016 -24.7 Jun 2016 -18.8 May 2016 -13.8 Apr 2016 -23.3 Mar 2016 -14.9 Feb 2016 -14.2 Jan 2016 -18.0 Dec 2015 -18.0 Nov 2015 -10.2 Oct 2015 -13.4 Sep 2015 -11.1 Aug -3.1 Jul 2015 -3.2 Jun 2015 -2.9 May 2015 -8.7 Apr -4.2 Mar -14.5 Feb -3.6 Jan -9.0 Dec 1.9 Nov -1.7 Oct 2.7 Sep 6.2 Aug -1.5 Jul 2.3 Jun 8.4 May 2014 -3.6 Apr 2013 3.4 Mar 2014 18.1 Feb 2014 9.0 Jan 2014 25.0 Dec 2013 24.7 Nov 2013 21.1 Oct 2013 26.1 Sep 2013 16.5 Aug 2013 16.0 Jul 2013 19.6 Jun 2013 11.8 May 2013 10.0 Apr 2013 9.4 Mar 2013 5.5 Feb 2013 7.3 Jan 2013 7.3 Dec 1.9 Nov 0.8 Oct -1.6 Sep 4.1 Aug -5.4 Jul 2.1
China	Jan-Dec 0.5 Jan-Dec 9.9 Jan-Dec 2017 7.9 Jan-Dec 2016 -7.7 Jan-Dec 2015 -2.8	2020 Apr 8.2 Mar -2.9 Jan-Feb -17.2 2019 Dec 7.6 Nov -1.1 Oct -0.9 Sep -3.2 Aug -1.0 Jul 3.3 Jun -1.3 May 1.1 Apr -2.7 Mar 14.2 Feb -20.7 Jan 9.3 2018 Dec -4.4 Nov 5.4 Oct 15.6 Sep 14.5 Aug 9.8 Jul 12.2 Jun 11.3 May 12.6 Apr 12.9 Mar -2.7 Feb 44.5 Jan 11.1 2017 Dec 10.9 Nov 12.3 Oct 6.9 Sep 8.1 Aug 5.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 11.3 May 8.7 Apr 8.0 Mar 16.4 Feb -1.3 Jan 7.9 2016 Dec 3.1 Nov 0.1 Oct -7.3 Sep -10.0 Aug -2.8 Jul -4.4 Jun -4.8 May -4.1 Apr -1.8 Mar 11.5 Feb -25.4 Jan -11.2 2015 -1.4 Dec -6.8 Nov -6.9 Oct -3.7 Sep -5.5 Aug -8.3 Jul 2.8 Jun -2.5 May -6.4 Apr -15.0 Mar 48.3 Feb -3.3 Jan 2014 9.7 Dec 4.7 Nov 11.6 Oct 15.3 Sep 9.4 Aug 14.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 7.0 May 0.9 Apr -6.6 Mar -18.1 Feb 10.6 Jan 2013 4.3 Dec 12.7 Nov 5.6 Oct -0.3 Sep 7.2 Aug 5.1 Jul -3.1 Jun 1.0 May 14.7 Apr 10.0 Mar 21.8 Feb 25.0 Jan	Jan-Dec -2.8 Jan-Dec 15.8 Jan-Dec 2017 15.9 Jan-Dec 2016 -5.5 Jan-Dec 2015 -14.1	2020 Apr -10.2 Mar -1.1 Jan-Feb -4.0 2019 Dec 16.3 Nov 0.3 Oct -6.4 Sep -8.5 Aug -5.6 Jul -5.3 Jun -7.3 May -8.5 Apr 4.0 Mar -7.6 Feb -5.2 Jan -1.5 2018 Dec -7.6 Nov 3.0 Oct 21.4 Sep 14.3 Aug 20.0 Jul 27.3 Jun 14.1 May 26.0 Apr 21.5 Mar 14.4 Feb 6.3 Jan 36.9 2017 Dec 4.5 Nov 17.7 Oct 17.2 Sep 18.7 Aug 13.3 Jul 11.0 Jun 17.2 May 14.8 Apr 11.9 Mar 20.3 Feb 38.1 Jan 16.7 2016 Dec -7.7 Nov 6.7 Oct -1.4 Sep -1.9 Aug 1.5 Jul -12.5 Jun -2.8 May -0.4 Apr -10.6 Mar -7.6 Feb -13.8 Jan -18.8 2015 -7.6 Dec -8.7 Nov -18.8 Oct -20.4 Sep -13.8 Aug -8.1 Jul -6.1 Jun -17.6 May -12.7 Mar -20.5 Feb -19.9 Jan 2014 -2.4 Dec -6.7 Nov 4.6 Oct 7.0 Sep -2.4 Aug -1.6 Jul 5.5 Jun -1.6 May -0.8 Apr -11.3 Mar 10.1 Feb 10.0 Jan 2013 8.3 Dec 5.3 Nov 7.6 Oct 7.4 Sep 7.0 Aug 10.9 Jul -0.7 Jun -0.3 May 16.8 Apr 14.1 Mar -15.2 Feb 28.8 Jan
Euro Area	-6.2 12-Mar 2020	-1.8 Jan-Mar 2020	-10.1 12-Mar 2020	-4.1 Jan-Mar 2020
Germany	-11.8 Mar CSA	-7.9 Mar	-5.1 Mar CSA	-4.5 Mar
France Mar	-16.7	-18.4	-18.5	-21.2
Italy Mar	-16.8	-1.9	-16.8	-5.9
UK	12.9 Mar	4.2	-3.5 Mar	-1.4
Net Trade % Points GDP Growth	Points
USA	IQ2020 1.30 IVQ2019 1.51 IIIQ2019 -0.14 IIQ2019 -0.68 IQ2019 0.73 IVQ 2018 -0.35 IIIQ 2018 -2.05 IIQ2018 0.67 IQ2018 0.00 IVQ2017 -0.80 IIIQ2017 0.35 IIQ2017 -0.31 IQ2017 0.13 IVQ2016 -1.36 IIIQ2016 0.05 IIQ2016 0.35 IQ2016 -0.50 IVQ2015 -0.20 IIIQ2015 -1.00 IIQ2015 0.06 IQ2015 -1.67 IVQ2014 -1.05 IIIQ2014 0.10 IIQ2014 -0.46 IQ2014 -1.11 IVQ2013 1.23 IIIQ2013 -0.14 IIQ2013 -0.33 IQ2013 0.40 IVQ2012 +0.57 IIIQ2012 -0.08 IIQ2012 0.27 IQ2012 0.00
Japan	0.8 IQ2012 -2.0 IIQ2012 -1.9 IIIQ2012 -0.4 IVQ2012 1.5 IQ2013 -0.2 IIQ2013 -1.4 IIIQ2013 -2.2 IVQ2013 -0.7 IQ2014 4.0 IIQ2014 -0.3 IIIQ2014 1.5 IVQ2014 0.2 IQ2015 -0.5 IIQ2015 -0.6 IIIQ2015 0.1 IVQ2015 1.4 IQ2016 0.5 IIQ2016 1.2 IIIQ2016 1.4 IVQ2016 0.4 IQ2017 -0.9 IIQ2017 2.1 IIIQ2017 -0.3 IVQ2017 0.4 IQ2018 0.0 IIQ2018 -0.7 IIIQ2018 -1.7 IVQ2018 1.8 IQ2019 -1.1 IIQ2019 -1.0 IIIQ2019 1.9 IVQ2019
Germany	IQ2012 0.8 IIQ2012 0.3 IIIQ2012 0.4 IVQ2012 -0.5 IQ2013 -0.3 IIQ2013 -0.3 IIIQ2013 0.0 IVQ2013 0.9 IQ2014 -0.1 IIQ2014 -0.3 IIIQ2014 0.7 IVQ2014 0.1 IQ2015 -0.4 IIQ2015 0.6 IIIQ2015 -0.4 IVQ2015 -0.6 IQ2016 -0.4 IIQ2016 0.7 IIIQ2016 -0.2 IVQ2016 -0.7 IQ2017 0.7 IIQ2017 -0.2 IIIQ2017 0.5 IVQ2017 0.1 IQ2018 0.1 IIQ2018 -0.2 IIIQ2018 -1.0 IVQ2018 -0.2 IQ2019 0.5 IIQ2019 -0.5 IIIQ2019 0.6 IVQ2019 -0.6
France	0.1 IIIQ2012 0.1 IVQ2012 -0.1 IQ2013 0.3 IIQ2013 -1.7 IIIQ2013 0.1 IVQ2013 -0.1 IQ2014 -0.2 IIQ2014 -0.2 IIIQ2014 0.2 IVQ2014 -0.2 IQ2015 0.4 IIQ2015 -0.6 IIIQ2015 -0.7 IVQ2015 -0.1 IQ2016 0.3 IIQ2016 -0.6 IIIQ2016 0.1 IVQ2016 -0.6 IQ2017 0.9 IIQ2017 -0.3 IIIQ2017 0.6 IVQ2017 0.0 IQ2018 0.0 IIQ2018 0.3 IIIQ2018 0.2 IVQ2018 -0.3 IQ2019 0.0 IIQ2019 -0.2 IIIQ2019 0.1 IVQ2019
UK	0.7 IIQ2013 -1.7 IIIQ2013 0.1 IVQ2013 0.8 IQ2014 0.3 IIQ2014 -0.7 IIIQ2014 0.0 IVQ2014 -0.4 IQ2015 1.1 IIQ2015 -0.4 IIIQ2015 -0.2 IVQ2015 -0.1 IQ2016 0.1 IIQ2016 -1.8 IIIQ2016 1.7 IVQ2016 0.33 IQ2017 0.01 IIQ2017
	0.11
	IIIQ2017 -0.14 IVQ2017 0.02 IQ2018 -0.26 IIQ2018 0.44 IIIQ2018 -1.00 IVQ2018 -2.49 IQ2019 2.71 IIQ2019 1.36 IIIQ2019 1.48 IVQ2019 -1.91 IQ2020

Sources: Country Statistical Agencies

https://www.bls.gov/bls/other.htm https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/related-sites.html

The geographical breakdown of exports and imports of Japan with selected regions and countries is in Table V-5 for Mar 2020. There are global economic effects of COVID-19. The share of Asia in Japan’s trade is close to one-half for 54.3 percent of exports and 47.7 percent of imports. Within Asia, exports to China are 18.7 percent of total exports and imports from China 22.5 percent of total imports. While exports of Japan to China decreased 8.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2020, imports from China decreased 4.5 percent. The second largest export market for Japan in Mar 2020 is the US with share of 18.6 percent of total exports, which is close to that of China, and share of imports from the US of 11.7 percent in total imports. Japan’s exports to the US decreased 16.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2020 and imports from the US increased 1.3 percent. Western Europe has share of 11.9 percent in Japan’s exports and of 12.3 percent in imports. Rates of growth of exports of Japan in Mar 2020 are minus 16.5 percent for exports to the US, minus 5.4 percent for exports to Brazil and minus 12.6 percent for exports to Germany. Comparisons relative to 2011 may have some bias because of the effects of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Deceleration of growth in China and the US and threat of recession in Europe can reduce world trade and economic activity. Growth rates of imports in the 12 months ending in Mar 2020 are mixed. Imports from Asia decreased 4.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2020 while imports from China decreased 4.5 percent. Data are in millions of yen, which may have effects of recent depreciation of the yen relative to the United States dollar (USD) and revaluation of the dollar relative to the euro with multiple oscillations. There are also economic repercussions of COVID-19.

Table V-5, Japan, Value and 12-Month Percentage Changes of Exports and Imports by Regions and Countries, ∆% and Millions of Yen

Mar 2020	Exports Millions of Yen	12 months ∆%	Imports Millions of Yen	12 months ∆%
Total	6,357,876	-11.7	6,352,930	-5.0
Asia	3,452,980 % Total 54.3	-9.4	3,030,104 % Total 47.7	-4.0
China	1,190,554 % Total 18.7	-8.7	1,431,780 % Total 22.5	-4.5
USA	1,182,087 % Total 18.6	-16.5	742,251 % Total 11.7	1.3
Canada	74,948	-15.8	103,255	6.9
Brazil	37,873	-5.4	67,393	14.9
Mexico	88,636	-11.1	58,214	0.5
Western Europe	753,699 % Total 11.9	-13.2	782,803% Total 12.3	-12.4
Germany	183,529	-12.6	198,644	-19.0
France	62,786	-9.1	82,847	-38.5
UK	114,370	-23.5	64,158	-17.7
Middle East	234,089	1.0	701,164	-9.3
Australia	124,521	-5.7	403,310	-15.4

Source: Japan, Ministry of Finance http://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/info/index_e.htm

World trade projections of the IMF are in Table V-6. There is decreasing growth of the volume of world trade of goods and services from 3.6 percent in 2018 to 1.1 percent in 2019, stabilizing to 3.2 percent in 2020. Growth stabilizes at 3.3 percent on average from 2018 to 2024. World trade would be slower for advanced economies while emerging and developing economies (EMDE) experience faster growth. World economic slowdown would be more challenging with lower growth of world trade.

Table V-6, IMF, Projections of World Trade, USD Billions, USD/Barrel and Annual ∆%

	2018	2019	2020	Average ∆% 2018-2024
World Trade Volume (Goods and Services)	3.6	1.1	3.2	3.3
Exports Goods & Services	3.4	1.3	3.1	3.5
Imports Goods & Services	3.8	1.0	3.3	3.4
Exports Goods & Services
G7	2.6	0.7	2.2	2.5
EMDE	3.9	1.9	4.1	4.1
Imports Goods & Services
G7	3.2	1.5	2.6	2.7
EMDE	5.1	0.7	4.3	4.3
Terms of Trade Goods & Services
G7	-0.7	0.6	0.3	0.0
EMDE	1.5	-1.3	-1.1	-0.2
World Crude Oil Price $/Barrel	68.3	61.8	57.9	58.3

Crude Oil: Simple Average of three spot prices: Dated Brent, West Texas Intermediate and the Dubai Fateh

Source: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook databank

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2019/02/weodata/index.aspx

The JP Morgan Global Composite Output Index of the JP Morgan Manufacturing and Services PMI^™, produced by JP Morgan and HIS Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM, with high association with world GDP, decreased to 26.5 in Apr from 39.2 in Mar, indicating faster contraction from prior contraction (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/b4951de8d978424d8baced39a0188202). This index had remained above the contraction territory of 50.0 during 88 consecutive months. The employment index decreased from 46.5 in Mar to 39.4 in Apr with input prices decreasing at faster rate, new export orders decreasing and output decreasing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/b4951de8d978424d8baced39a0188202). Olya Borichevska, from Global Economic Research at JP Morgan, finds contraction (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/b4951de8d978424d8baced39a0188202). The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI^™, produced by JP Morgan and IHS Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM, decreased to 39.8 in Apr from 47.3 in Mar (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/77b25376d56c435e87a9cc1139a154ea). New export orders decreased. Olya Borichevska, from Global Economic Research at JP Morgan, finds contraction (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/77b25376d56c435e87a9cc1139a154ea).The Markit Brazil Composite Output Index decreased from 37.6 in Mar to 26.5 in Apr, indicating contraction in activity of Brazil’s private sector (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/bf3cba7be41b4a889093d5738b9edff3). The Markit Brazil Services Business Activity index, compiled by Markit, decreased from 34.5 in Mar to 27.4 in Apr indicating contracting services activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/bf3cba7be41b4a889093d5738b9edff3). Paul Smith, Economics Director at HIS Markit, finds contracting activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/bf3cba7be41b4a889093d5738b9edff3). The HIS Markit Brazil Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^TM (PMI^™) decreased from 48.4 in Mar to 36.0 in Apr, indicating manufacturing below neutral 50.0 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/acd62c92788a4c2d87232c9fcb37030a). Andrew Harker, Economics Director at HIS Markit, finds weaker manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/acd62c92788a4c2d87232c9fcb37030a).

VA United States. The HIS Markit Flash US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) seasonally adjusted decreased to 36.9 in Apr from 48.5 in Mar (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/63cdd746043d4473bd49c2730287049a). New export orders decreased. The HIS Markit Flash US Services PMI™ Business Activity Index decreased from 39.8 in Mar to 27.0 in Apr ((https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/63cdd746043d4473bd49c2730287049a). The IHS Markit Flash US Composite PMI™ Output Index decreased from 40.9 in Mar to 27.4 in Apr ((https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/63cdd746043d4473bd49c2730287049a). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds that the surveys are consistent with sharp contraction of the economy (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/63cdd746043d4473bd49c2730287049a). The HIS Markit US Composite PMI™ Output Index of Manufacturing and Services decreased to 27.0 in Apr from 40.9 in Mar (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/8a0d42c3414d40808c6301d28b928364). The HIS Markit US Services PMI™ Business Activity Index decreased from 39.8 in Mar to 26.7 in Apr (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/8a0d42c3414d40808c6301d28b928364). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds the indexes suggesting sharp contraction (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/8a0d42c3414d40808c6301d28b928364). The HIS Markit US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) decreased to 36.1 in Apr from 48.5 in Mar (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/640893d3143c44a3a9118bb835ca6d22). New foreign orders decreased. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at HIS Markit, finds sharp contraction (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/640893d3143c44a3a9118bb835ca6d22). The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Report on Business^® decreased 7.6-percentage points from 49.1 in Mar to 41.5 in Apr, which indicates contraction (https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm). The index of new export orders decreased 15.1 percentage points from 42.2 in Mar to 27.1 in Apr. The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report on Business^® PMI decreased 10.7 percentage points from 52.5 in Mar to 41.8 in Apr, while the index of new orders decreased 20.0 percentage points from 52.9 in Mar to 32.9 in Apr (https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm). Table USA provides the country economic indicators for the US.

Table USA, US Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index	Aprr 12 months NSA ∆%: 0.3; Ex food and energy ∆%: 1.4 Apr month SA ∆%: -0.8; Ex food and energy ∆%: -0.4 Blog 5/17/20 WIW 4/26/20
Producer Price Index	Finished Goods Apr 12-month NSA ∆%: -5.1; ex food and energy ∆% 1.1 Apr month SA ∆% -3.5; ex food and energy ∆%: 0.0 Final Demand Apr 12-month NSA ∆%: -1.2; ex food and energy ∆% 0.6 Apr month SA ∆% -1.3; ex food and energy ∆%: -0.3 Blog 5/17/20 WIW 4/26/20
PCE Inflation	Mar 12-month NSA ∆%: headline 1.3 ex food and energy ∆% 1.7 Blog 5/10/20
Employment Situation	Household Survey: Apr Unemployment Rate SA 14.7% Blog calculation People in Job Stress Apr: 51.6 million NSA, 30.0% of Labor Force Establishment Survey: Apr Nonfarm Jobs -20,500 Apr; Private -19.250 M jobs lost  Mar 12-month Average Hourly Earnings Inflation Adjusted ∆%: 2.3 Blog 5/10/20
Nonfarm Hiring	Nonfarm Hiring increased from 64.9 million in 2006 to 69.9 million in 2019 or by 5.1 million while noninstitutional civilian population increased 30.6 million. Nonfarm hiring was 26.4 percent of population in 2006 but only 25.3 percent in 2019. Private-Sector Hiring Feb 2020 higher by 7.1 percent than in 2006 while population grew 31.865 million or 14.0 percent Blog 4/12/20
GDP Growth	BEA Revised National Income Accounts IQ2012/IQ2011 ∆%: 2.7 IIQ2012/IIQ2011 2.4 IIIQ2012/IIIQ2011 2.5 IVQ2012/IVQ2011 1.5 IQ2013/IQ2012 1.6 IIQ2013/IIQ2012 1.3 IIIQ2013/IIIQ2012 1.9 IVQ2013/IVQ2012 2.6 IQ2014/IQ2013 1.4 IIQ2014/IIQ2013 2.7 IIIQ2014/IIIQ2013 3.1 IVQ2014/IVQ2013 2.9 IQ2015/IQ2014 4.0 IIQ2015/IIQ2014 3.4 IIIQ2015/IIIQ2014 2.4 IVQ2015/IVQ2014 1.9 IQ2016/IQ2015 1.6 IIQ2016/IIQ2015 1.3 IIIQ2016/IIIQ2015 1.6 IVQ2016/IVQ2015 2.0 IQ2017/IQ2016 2.1 IIQ2017/IIQ2016 2.2 IIIQ2017/IIIQ2016 2.4 IVQ2017/IVQ2016 2.8 IQ2018/IQ2017 2.9 IIQ2018/IIQ2017 3.2 IIIQ2018/IIIQ2017: 3.1 IVQ2018/IVQ2017 2.5 IQ2019/IQ2018 2.7 IIQ2019/IIQ2018 2.3 IIIQ2019/IIIQ2018 2.1 IVQ2019/IVQ2018 2.3 IQ2020/IQ2019 0.3 IQ2012 SAAR 3.2 IIQ2012 SAAR 1.7 IIIQ2012 SAAR 0.5 IVQ2012 SAAR 0.5 IQ2013 SAAR 3.6 IIQ2013 SAAR 0.5 IIIQ2013 SAAR 3.2 IVQ2013 SAAR 3.2 IQ2014 SAAR -1.1 IIQ2014 SAAR 5.5 IIIQ2014 SAAR 5.0 IVQ2014 SAAR 2.3 IQ2015 SAAR 3.2 IIQ2015 SAAR: 3.0 IIIQ2015 SAAR: 1.3 IVQ2015 SAAR: 0.1 IQ2016 SAAR: 2.0 IIQ2016 SAAR: 1.9 IIIQ2016 SAAR: 2.2 IVQ2016 SAAR 2.0 IQ2017 SAAR 2.3 IIQ2017 SAAR 2.2 IIIQ2017 SAAR 3.2 IVQ2017 SAAR 3.5 IQ2018 SAAR 2.5 IIQ2018 SAAR 3.5 IIIQ2018 SAAR 2.9 IVQ2018 SAAR 1.1 IQ2019 SAAR 3.1 IIQ2019 SAAR 2.0 IIIQ2019 SAAR 2.1 IVQ2019 SAAR 2.1 IQ2020 SAAR -4.8 Blog 5/3/20
Real Private Fixed Investment	SAAR IQ2020 ∆% -0.6 IVQ2007 to IQ2019: ∆% 25.6 Blog 5/3/20
Corporate Profits	IIIQ2019 SAAR: Corporate Profits -0.2; Undistributed Profits 3.6 Blog 1/5/20
Personal Income and Consumption	Mar month ∆% SA Real Disposable Personal Income (RDPI) SA ∆% -1.7 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (RPCE): -7.3 12-month Mar NSA ∆%: RDPI: 0.1; RPCE ∆%: -5.0 Blog 5/10/20
Quarterly Services Report	IVQ19/IVQ18 NSA ∆%: Information 5.8 Financial & Insurance 3.7 Earlier Data: Blog 3/22/15
Employment Cost Index	Compensation Private IQ2020 SA ∆%: 0.8 Mar 12 months ∆%: 2.8 Earlier Data: Blog 2/1/15
Industrial Production	Mar month SA ∆%: -5.4 12 months SA ∆%: 05.5 Manufacturing Mar ∆% SA minus 6.3 ∆% Mar 12 months SA ∆% minus 6.6 NSA minus 0.2 Capacity Utilization: 72.7 Blog 4/19/20
Productivity and Costs	Nonfarm Business Productivity IQ2020∆% SAAE -2.5; IQ2020/IQ2019 ∆% 0.3; Unit Labor Costs SAAE IQ2020 ∆% 4.8; IQ2020/IQ2019 ∆%: 1.5 Blog 5/17/20
New York Fed Manufacturing Index	General Business Conditions from Feb -21.5 to Mar -78.2 New Orders: From Feb -9.3 to Mar 66.3 Blog 4/19/20
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index	General Index from Feb -12.7 to Mar -56.6 New Orders from Feb -15.5 to Mar -70.9 Blog 4/19/20
Manufacturing Shipments and Orders	Mar Orders SA ∆% -10.3 Ex Transport -3.7 Jan-Mar 20/Jan-Mar 19 NSA New Orders ∆% -2.8 Ex transport 0.0 Earlier data: Blog 4/5/15
Durable Goods	Mar New Orders SA ∆%: minus 14.4 ex transport ∆%: -0.2 Jan-Mar 20/Jan-Mar 19 New Orders NSA ∆%: minus5.2 ex transport ∆% 0.4 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15
Sales of New Motor Vehicles	IIQ2018 4,500,220; IIQ2017 4,419,349. Feb 20 Total Light Vehicles NSA 1356.3 thousand increasing 8.4% from 1251.5 thousand in Feb 2019. Feb 20 SAAR 16.8 million, Jan 20 SAAR 16.9 million, Feb 19 SAAR 16.5 million Total Vehicle Sales SAAR 17.773, Mar 2019, 17.203 SAAR Feb 2020, 11.742 SAAR Mar 2020 Blog 9/9/18 12/9/18 3/8/20 5/10/20
Sales of Merchant Wholesalers	Jan-Mar 2020/Jan-Mar 2019 NSA ∆%: Total 1.0; Durable Goods: minus 1.0; Nondurable Goods: 2.9 EARLIER DATA: Blog 4/12/15
Sales and Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers	Feb 20 12-M NSA ∆%: Sales Total Business 3.7; Manufacturers 1.3 Retailers 7.9; Merchant Wholesalers 2.7 Blog 4/26/20
Sales for Retail and Food Services	Mar 2020/Feb 2019 ∆%: Retail and Food Services -8.7; Retail ∆% -6.2 Blog 4/26/20
Value of Construction Put in Place	SAAR month SA Mar ∆%: 0.9 Jan-Mar 20/Jan-Mar 19 NSA: 6.7 Earlier Data: Blog 4/5/15
Case-Shiller Home Prices	National Feb ∆% SA 0.5 National Feb 12M ∆% 4.2 Blog 5/3/20
FHFA House Price Index Purchases Only	Feb SA ∆% 0.7; 12-month NSA ∆%: 5.8 Blog 4/26/20
New House Sales	Mar month SAAR ∆%: -15.4 Jan-Mar 2020/Jan-Mar 2019 NSA ∆%: 6.9 Blog 4/26/20
Housing Starts and Permits	Mar Starts month SA ∆% -22.3; Permits ∆%: -6.8 Jan-Mar 2020/Jan-Mar 2019 NSA ∆% Starts 22.3; Permits ∆% 12.1 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Rate of Homeownership	IQ2020 65.3 IVQ2019: 65.1 Blog 5/10/20
Trade Balance	Balance Mar SA -$44,415 million versus Feb -$39,810 million Exports Mar SA ∆%: -0.4 Imports Mar SA ∆%: -2.5 Goods Exports Jan-Mar 2020/Jan-Mar 2019 NSA ∆%: minus 3.1 Goods Imports Jan-Mar 2020/Jan-Mar 2019 NSA ∆%: minus 4.9 Blog 5/10/20
Export and Import Prices	Apr 12-month NSA ∆%: Imports 6.8; Exports -7.0 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
International Terms of Trade	IQ2020 109.177 IVQ1947 150.474 2019 109.928 1929 142.590 Blog 5/3/20
Consumer Credit	Mar ∆% annual rate: Total minus 3.4; Revolving minus 30.9 Nonrevolving 6.2 Earlier Data: Blog 5/10/15
Net Foreign Purchases of Long-term Treasury Securities	Feb Net Foreign Purchases of Long-term US Securities: $24.7 billion Major Holders of Treasury Securities: China $1092.3 billion; Japan $1268.3 billion; Total Foreign US Treasury Holdings Dec $7066.7 billion Blog 4/26/20
Treasury Budget	Fiscal Year 2020/2019 ∆% Mar: Receipts 6.4; Outlays 6.8 Individual Income Taxes 6.3 Deficit Fiscal Year 2011 $1,300 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2012 $1,077 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2013 $680 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2014 $485 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2015 $442 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2016 $585 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2017 $665 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2018 $779 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2019 $984 billion Blog 4/26/20
CBO Budget and Economic Outlook	2012 Deficit $1087 B 6.8% GDP Debt $11,281 B 70.4% GDP 2013 Deficit $680 B, 4.1% GDP Debt $11,983 B 72.6% GDP 2014 Deficit $485 B 2.8% GDP Debt $12,780 B 74.1% GDP 2015 Deficit $438 B 2.4% GDP Debt $13,117 B 72.9% GDP 2016 Deficit $585 3.2% GDP Debt $14,168.4 B 76.7% GDP 2017 Deficit $665 3.5% GDP Debt $14,665 76.5% GDP 2028 Deficit $1,526 B, 5.1 % GDP Debt $28,671 B 96.2% GDP 2048: Long-term Debt/GDP 152.0% Blog 8/26/12 11/18/12 2/10/13 9/22/13 2/16/14 8/24/14 9/14/14 3/1/15 6/21/15 1/3/16 4/10/16 7/24/16 1/8/17 4/2/17 10/14/18
Commercial Banks Assets and Liabilities	Sep 2019 SAAR ∆%: Securities 21.0 Loans 2.2 Cash Assets -36.6 Deposits 7.9 Blog 10/20/19
Flow of Funds Net Worth of Families and Nonprofits	IVQ2019 ∆ since 2007 Assets +$49,798.9 BN Nonfinancial +$8,792.5 BN Real estate +$7,163.9 BN Financial +$41,006.5 BN Net Worth +$47,725.9 BN Net Worth IVQ2018/IIIQ2018 ∆% -3.1 Corporate Equity ∆% -13.1 Blog 4/19/20
Current Account Balance of Payments and Net International Investment Position	Current Account IVQ2019 NSA minus $113,883 MM % GDP 2.0 SA NIIP IVQ2019: Minus $10,991 B Blog 9/23/2018 2/10/2018 3/31/2019 7/7/2019 9/29/2019 11/3/2019 1/19/20 4/12/20
Collapse of United States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation	Blog 4/26/20
Squeeze of Economic Activity by Carry Trades	Blog 4/19/20
IMF View	World Real Economic Growth 2020 ∆% -3.1 Blog 11/3/19 5/3/20
Income, Poverty and Health Insurance in the United States	43.123 Million Below Poverty in 2015, 13.5% of Population Median Family Income CPI-2015 Adjusted $56,516 in 2015 back to 1999 Levels Uncovered by Health Insurance 28.966 Million in 2015 Blog 9/25/16
Monetary Policy and Cyclical Valuation of Risk Financial Assets	Blog 1/7/2018
Rules versus Discretionary Authorities in Monetary Policy	Blog 1/1/2017

Links to blog comments in Table USA: 5/10/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/05/fifty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

5/3/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/05/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

4/26/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/04/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

4/19/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/04/contraction-of-united-states.html

4/12/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/04/united-states-imbalances-of-internal.html

4/5/2020 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/04/lockdown-of-economic-activity-in.html

3/29/2020 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/03/weekly-rise-of-valuations-of-risk.html

3/22/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/03/sharp-contraction-of-valuations-of-risk.html

3/15/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/03/financial-markets-stress-in.html

3/8/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/03/stress-of-world-financial-markets-fomc.html

3/1/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/sharp-worldwide-contraction-of.html

2/23/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/declining-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

2/16/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/recovery-without-hiring-in-lost.html

2/9/2020 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

2/2/2020 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/decreasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

1/26/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/01/declining-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

1/19/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/01/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

1/12/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/01/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

1/5/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/01/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

12/29/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/diverging-economic-conditions-and.html

12/22/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/oscillating-valuations-of-risk.html

12/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/increase-in-valuations-of-risk_14.html

12/8/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/increase-in-valuations-of-risk.html

12/1/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

11/24/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/oscillating-risk-financial-assets-world.html

11/17/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial_16.html

11/10/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

11/3/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/decrease-of-fomc-policy-rate-monetary.html

10/27/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial_26.html

10/20/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/dollar-depreciation-fluctuating.html

10/13/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

10/6/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/volatility-of-valuations-of-risk.html

9/29/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/dollar-appreciation-decreasing.html

9/22/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/uncertain-fomc-outlook-of-monetary.html

9/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/competitive-exchange-rate-and-interest.html

9/8/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/increase-in-valuations-of-risk.html

9/1/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/revaluation-of-us-dollar-falling-yields.html

8/25/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/contraction-of-valuations-of-risk.html

8/18/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/global-decline-of-yields-of-government.html

8/11/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/competitive-exchange-rate-policies.html

8/4/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/dollar-appreciation-contraction-of.html

7/28/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/dollar-appreciation-in-anticipations-of.html

7/21/2019 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/global-manufacturing-stress-world.html

7/14/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/fomc-uncertain-outlook-frank-h-knights.html

7/7/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/twenty-million-unemployed-or.html

6/30/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/06/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

6/23/2019 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/06/fomc-outlook-uncertainty-central-bank.html

6/16/2019 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/06/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

5/5/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

4/21/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/04/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

3/31/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/03/inverted-yield-curve-of-treasury_30.html

12/9/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/12/fluctuation-of-valuations-of-risk.html

11/4/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/10/contraction-of-valuations-of-risk.html

1/7/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/01/twenty-three-million-unemployed-or.html

12/31/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/dollar-devaluation-cyclically.html

12/24/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_23.html

10/29/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/dollar-revaluation-and-increase-of.html

4/2/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/04/mediocre-cyclical-economic-growth-with.html

1/15/17 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/unconventional-monetary-policy-and.html

1/1/17 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/rules-versus-discretionary-authorities.html

12/25/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

10/16/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/10/imf-view-of-world-economy-and-finance.html

9/25/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/the-economic-outlook-is-inherently.html

7/24/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/unresolved-us-balance-of-payments.html

4/10/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/04/proceeding-cautiously-in-reducing.html

1/17/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/unconventional-monetary-policy-and.html

1/3/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/weakening-equities-and-dollar.html

10/11/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/10/interest-rate-policy-uncertainty-imf.html

6/21/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/fluctuating-financial-asset-valuations.html

5/10/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/quite-high-equity-valuations-and.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html

9/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitics-monetary-policy-and.html

8/24/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/monetary-policy-world-inflation-waves.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

9/22/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

2/10/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/united-states-unsustainable-fiscal.html

Table VB-BOJF provides the forecasts of economic activity and inflation in Japan by the majority of members of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, which is part of their Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf) with changes on Jul 21, 2015 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k150121a.pdf). For fiscal 2015, the forecast is of growth of GDP between 1.5 to 2.1 percent, with the all items CPI less fresh food 0.2 to 1.2 to 3.3 percent (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf). The critical difference is forecast of the CPI excluding fresh food of 0.2 to 1.2 percent in 2015 and 1.2 to 2.2 percent in 2016 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf). Consumer price inflation in Japan excluding fresh food was minus 0.4 percent in Mar 2014 and 2.2 percent in 12 months (http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1581.htm), significantly because of the increase of the tax on value added of consumption in Apr 2014. The new monetary policy of the Bank of Japan aims to increase inflation to 2 percent. These forecasts are biannual in Apr and Oct. The Cabinet Office, Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan released on Jan 22, 2013, a “Joint Statement of the Government and the Bank of Japan on Overcoming Deflation and Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130122c.pdf) with the important change of increasing the inflation target of monetary policy from 1 percent to 2 percent:

“The Bank of Japan conducts monetary policy based on the principle that the policy shall be aimed at achieving price stability, thereby contributing to the sound development of the national economy, and is responsible for maintaining financial system stability. The Bank aims to achieve price stability on a sustainable basis, given that there are various factors that affect prices in the short run.

The Bank recognizes that the inflation rate consistent with price stability on a sustainable basis will rise as efforts by a wide range of entities toward strengthening competitiveness and growth potential of Japan's economy make progress. Based on this recognition, the Bank sets the price stability target at 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index.

Under the price stability target specified above, the Bank will pursue monetary easing and aim to achieve this target at the earliest possible time. Taking into consideration that it will take considerable time before the effects of monetary policy permeate the economy, the Bank will ascertain whether there is any significant risk to the sustainability of economic growth, including from the accumulation of financial imbalances.”

The Bank of Japan also provided explicit analysis of its view on price stability in a “Background note regarding the Bank’s thinking on price stability” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/data/rel130123a1.pdf http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130123a.htm/). The Bank of Japan also amended “Principal terms and conditions for the Asset Purchase Program” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130122a.pdf): “Asset purchases and loan provision shall be conducted up to the maximum outstanding amounts by the end of 2013. From January 2014, the Bank shall purchase financial assets and provide loans every month, the amount of which shall be determined pursuant to the relevant rules of the Bank.”

Financial markets in Japan and worldwide were shocked by new bold measures of “quantitative and qualitative monetary easing” by the Bank of Japan (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The objective of policy is to “achieve the price stability target of 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) at the earliest possible time, with a time horizon of about two years” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The main elements of the new policy are as follows:

1. Monetary Base Control. Most central banks in the world pursue interest rates instead of monetary aggregates, injecting bank reserves to lower interest rates to desired levels. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has shifted back to monetary aggregates, conducting money market operations with the objective of increasing base money, or monetary liabilities of the government, at the annual rate of 60 to 70 trillion yen. The BOJ estimates base money outstanding at “138 trillion yen at end-2012) and plans to increase it to “200 trillion yen at end-2012 and 270 trillion yen at end 2014” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
2. Maturity Extension of Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds. Purchases of bonds will be extended even up to bonds with maturity of 40 years with the guideline of extending the average maturity of BOJ bond purchases from three to seven years. The BOJ estimates the current average maturity of Japanese government bonds (JGB) at around seven years. The BOJ plans to purchase about 7.5 trillion yen per month (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130404d.pdf). Takashi Nakamichi, Tatsuo Ito and Phred Dvorak, wiring on “Bank of Japan mounts bid for revival,” on Apr 4, 2013, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323646604578401633067110420.html), find that the limit of maturities of three years on purchases of JGBs was designed to avoid views that the BOJ would finance uncontrolled government deficits.
3. Seigniorage. The BOJ is pursuing coordination with the government that will take measures to establish “sustainable fiscal structure with a view to ensuring the credibility of fiscal management” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
4. Diversification of Asset Purchases. The BOJ will engage in transactions of exchange traded funds (ETF) and real estate investment trusts (REITS) and not solely on purchases of JGBs. Purchases of ETFs will be at an annual rate of increase of one trillion yen and purchases of REITS at 30 billion yen.
5. Bank Lending Facility and Growth Supporting Funding Facility. At the meeting on Feb 18, the Bank of Japan doubled the scale of these lending facilities to prevent their expiration in the near future (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140218a.pdf).

Table VB-BOJF provides the forecasts of economic activity and inflation in Japan by the majority of members of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, which is part of their Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1701b.pdf) with changes on Feb 1, 2017 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1604b.pdf). On Jun 19, 2015, the Bank of Japan announced a “New Framework for Monetary Policy Meetings,” which provides for quarterly release of the forecasts of the economy and prices beginning in Jan 2016 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/rel150619a.pdf). For fiscal 2015, the forecast is of growth of GDP between 0.7 to 0.7 percent, with the all items CPI less fresh food of 0.0 percent (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1604b.pdf). The critical difference is forecast of the CPI excluding fresh food of 0.0 to 0.2 percent in 2016 and 1.8 to 3.0 percent in 2017 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1604b.pdf). Consumer price inflation in Japan excluding fresh food was 0.1 percent in Mar 2016 and minus 0.3 percent in 12 months (http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1581.htm). The CPI increased significantly because of the increase of the tax on value added of consumption in Apr 2014. The new monetary policy of the Bank of Japan aims to increase inflation to 2 percent. These forecasts are biannual in Apr and Oct. The Cabinet Office, Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan released on Jan 22, 2013, a “Joint Statement of the Government and the Bank of Japan on Overcoming Deflation and Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130122c.pdf) with the important change of increasing the inflation target of monetary policy from 1 percent to 2 percent:

“The Bank of Japan conducts monetary policy based on the principle that the policy shall be aimed at achieving price stability, thereby contributing to the sound development of the national economy, and is responsible for maintaining financial system stability. The Bank aims to achieve price stability on a sustainable basis, given that there are various factors that affect prices in the short run.

The Bank recognizes that the inflation rate consistent with price stability on a sustainable basis will rise as efforts by a wide range of entities toward strengthening competitiveness and growth potential of Japan's economy make progress. Based on this recognition, the Bank sets the price stability target at 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index.

Under the price stability target specified above, the Bank will pursue monetary easing and aim to achieve this target at the earliest possible time. Taking into consideration that it will take considerable time before the effects of monetary policy permeate the economy, the Bank will ascertain whether there is any significant risk to the sustainability of economic growth, including from the accumulation of financial imbalances.”

The Bank of Japan also provided explicit analysis of its view on price stability in a “Background note regarding the Bank’s thinking on price stability” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/data/rel130123a1.pdf http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130123a.htm/). The Bank of Japan also amended “Principal terms and conditions for the Asset Purchase Program” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130122a.pdf): “Asset purchases and loan provision shall be conducted up to the maximum outstanding amounts by the end of 2013. From January 2014, the Bank shall purchase financial assets and provide loans every month, the amount of which shall be determined pursuant to the relevant rules of the Bank.”

Financial markets in Japan and worldwide were shocked by new bold measures of “quantitative and qualitative monetary easing” by the Bank of Japan (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The objective of policy is to “achieve the price stability target of 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) at the earliest possible time, with a time horizon of about two years” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The main elements of the new policy are as follows:

6. Monetary Base Control. Most central banks in the world pursue interest rates instead of monetary aggregates, injecting bank reserves to lower interest rates to desired levels. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has shifted back to monetary aggregates, conducting money market operations with the objective of increasing base money, or monetary liabilities of the government, at the annual rate of 60 to 70 trillion yen. The BOJ estimates base money outstanding at “138 trillion yen at end-2012) and plans to increase it to “200 trillion yen at end-2012 and 270 trillion yen at end 2014” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
7. Maturity Extension of Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds. Purchases of bonds will be extended even up to bonds with maturity of 40 years with the guideline of extending the average maturity of BOJ bond purchases from three to seven years. The BOJ estimates the current average maturity of Japanese government bonds (JGB) at around seven years. The BOJ plans to purchase about 7.5 trillion yen per month (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130404d.pdf). Takashi Nakamichi, Tatsuo Ito and Phred Dvorak, wiring on “Bank of Japan mounts bid for revival,” on Apr 4, 2013, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323646604578401633067110420.html), find that the limit of maturities of three years on purchases of JGBs was designed to avoid views that the BOJ would finance uncontrolled government deficits.
8. Seigniorage. The BOJ is pursuing coordination with the government that will take measures to establish “sustainable fiscal structure with a view to ensuring the credibility of fiscal management” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
9. Diversification of Asset Purchases. The BOJ will engage in transactions of exchange traded funds (ETF) and real estate investment trusts (REITS) and not solely on purchases of JGBs. Purchases of ETFs will be at an annual rate of increase of one trillion yen and purchases of REITS at 30 billion yen.
10. Bank Lending Facility and Growth Supporting Funding Facility. At the meeting on Feb 18, the Bank of Japan doubled the scale of these lending facilities to prevent their expiration in the near future (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140218a.pdf).
11. Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Negative Nominal Interest Rate. On January 29, 2016, the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan introduced a new policy to attain the “price stability target of 2 percent at the earliest possible time” (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2016/k160129a.pdf). The new framework consists of three dimensions: quantity, quality and interest rate. The interest rate dimension consists of rates paid to current accounts that financial institutions hold at the Bank of Japan of three tiers zero, positive and minus 0.1 percent. The quantitative dimension consists of increasing the monetary base at the annual rate of 80 trillion yen. The qualitative dimension consists of purchases by the Bank of Japan of Japanese government bonds (JGBs), exchange traded funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITS).
12. Quantitative and Qualitative Easing with Yield Curve Control. The Bank of Japan introduced a new approach, QQE with Yield Curve Control (“Quantitative and Qualitative Easing with Yield Curve Control”) at its policy meeting on Sep 21, 2016 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2016/k160921a.pdf). The policy consists of two measures. First “yield curve control” consists of controlling the long-term and short-term interest rates. The bank will fix the interest rates of policy balances held by financial institutions at the BOJ at minus 0.1 percent and will purchase Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) in the amount required to maintain the yield of the 10-year JGB at around zero percent. Second, “the inflation-overshooting commitment” consists of increasing base money to maintain the CPI price stability target above 2 percent.

Table VB-BOJF, Bank of Japan, Forecasts of the Majority of Members of the Policy Board, % Year on Year

Fiscal Year Date of Forecast	Real GDP	CPI All Items Less Fresh Food	Excluding Effects of Consumption Tax Hikes
2013
Apr 2014	+2.2 to +2.3 [+2.2]	+0.8
Jan 2014	+2.5 to +2.9 [+2.7]	+0.7 to +0.9 [+0.7]
Oct 2013	+2.6 to +3.0 [+2.7]	+0.6 to +1.0 [+0.7]
Jul 2013	+2.5 to +3.0 [+2.8]	+0.5 to +0.8 [+0.6]
2014
Apr 2015	-1.0 to -0.8 [-0.9]	+2.8	+0.8
Jan 2015	-0.6 to -0.4 [-0.5]	+2.9 to +3.2 [+2.9]	+0.9 to +1.2 [+0.9]
Oct 2014	+0.2 to +0.7 [+0.5]	+3.1 to +3.4 [+3.2]	+1.1 to +1.4 [+1.2]
Jul 2014	+0.6 to +1.3 [+1.0]	+3.2 to +3.5 [+3.3]	+1.2 to +1.5 [+1.3]
Apr 2014	+0.8 to +1.3 [+1.1]	+3.0 to +3.5 [+3.3]	+1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3]
Jan 2014	+0.9 to 1.5 [+1.4]	+2.9 to +3.6 [+3.3]	+0.9 to +1.6 [+1.3]
Oct 2013	+0.9 to +1.5 [+1.5]	+2.8 to +3.6 [+3.3]	+0.8 to +1.6 [+1.3]
Jul 2013	+0.8 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+2.7 to +3.6 [+3.3]	+0.7 to +1.6 [+1.3]
2015
Feb 2016	+0.7 to +0.7 [+0.7]	0.0
Jan 2016	+1.0 to +1.3 [+1.1]	0.0 to 0.2 [+0.1]
Oct 2015	+0.8 to +1.4 [+1.2]	0.0 to +0.4 [+0.1
Jul 2015	+1.5 to +1.9 [+1.7]	+0.3 to +1.0 [+0.7]
Apr 2015	+1.5 to +2.1 [+2.0]	+0.2 to 1.2 [+0.8]	+0.2 to 1.2 [+0.8]
Jan 2015	+1.8 to +2.3 [+2.1]	+0.4 to +1.3 [+1.0]	+0.4 to +1.3 [+1.0]
Oct 2014	+1.2 to +1.7 [+1.5]	+1.8 to 2.6 [+2.4]	+1.1 to +1.9 [+1.7]
Jul 2014	+1.2 to +1.6 [+1.5]	+1.9 to +2.8 [+2.6]	+1.2 to +2.1 [+1.9]
Apr 2014	+1.2 to +1.5 [+1.5]	+1.9 to +2.8 [+2.6]	+1.2 to +2.1 [+1.9]
Jan 2014	+1.2 to +1.8 [+1.5]	+1.7 to +2.9 [+2.6]	+1.0 to +2.2 [+1.9]
Oct 2013	+1.3 to +1.8 [+1.5]	+1.6 to +2.9 [+2.6]	+0.9 to +2.2 [+1.9]
Jul 2013	+1.3 to +1.9 [+1.5]	+1.6 to +2.9 [+2.6]	+0.9 to +2.2 [+1.9]
2016
Apr 2017	+1.4 to +1.4 [+1.4]	-0.3
Feb 2017	+1.2 to +1.5 [+1.4]	-0.2 to -0.1 [-0.2]
Jul 2016	+0.8 to +1.0 [+1.0]	0.0 to +0.3 [0.5]	0.0 to +0.3 [0.5]
Apr 2016	+0.8 to +1.4 [+1.2]	0.0 to +0.8 [+0.5]	0.0 to +0.8 [+0.5]
Jan 2016	+1.0 to +1.7 [+1.5]	0.2 to +1.2 [+0.8]
Oct 2015	+1.2 to +1.6 [+1.4]	+0.8 to +1.5 [+1.4]
Jul 2015	+1.5 to 1.7 [+1.5]	+1.2 to +2.1 [+1.9]
Apr 2015	+1.4 to +1.8 [+1.5]	+1.2 to +2.2 [+2.0]	+1.2 to +2.2 [+2.0]
Jan 2015	+1.5 to +1.7 [+1.6]	+1.5 to +2.3 [+2.2]	+1.5 to +2.3 [+2.2]
Oct 2014	+1.0 to +1.4 [+1.2]	+1.9 to 3.0 [+2.8]	+1.2 to 2.3 [+2.1]
Jul 2014	+1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+2.0 to +3.0 [+2.8]	+1.3 to +2.3 [+2.1]
Apr 2014	+1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+2.0 to +3.0 [+2.8]	+1.3 to +2.3 [+2.1]
2017
Apr 2017	+1.4 to +1.6 [+1.6]	+0.6 to +1.6 [+1.4]
Feb 2017	+1.3 to +1.6 [+1.5]	+0.8 to +1.6 [+1.5]
Jul 2016	1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+0.8 to +1.8 [+1.7]	+0.8 to +1.8 [+1.7]
Apr 2016	0.0 to + +0.3 [+0.1]	1.8 to +3.0 [+2.7]	0.8 to +2.0 [+1.7
Jan 2016	+0.1 to + 0.5 [+0.3]	+2.0 to +3.1 [+2.8]	+ 1.0 to +2.1 [+1.8]
Oct 2015	+0.1 to +0.5 [+0.3]	+2.5 to +3.4 [+3.1]	+1.2 to 2.1 [+1.8]
Jul 2015	+0.1 to +0.5 [+0.2]	+2.7 to +3.4 [+3.1]	+1.4 to +2.1 [+1.8]
Apr 2015	+0.1 to +0.5 [+0.2]	+2.7 to +3.4 [+3.2]	+1.4 to +2.1 [+1.9]
2018
Apr 2017	+1.1 to +1.3 [+1.3]	+0.8 to +1.9 [+1.7]
Feb 2017	+1.0 to +1.2 [+1.1]	+0.9 to +1.9 [+1.7]
Jul 2016	+0.8 to +1.0 [+0.9]	+1.0 to +2.0 [+1.9]	+1.0 to +2.0 [+1.9]
Apr 2016	+0.6 to +1.2 [+1.0]	+1.0 to +2.1 [+1.9]	+1.0 to +2.1 [+1.9]
2019
Apr 2017	+0.6 to +0.7 [+0.7]	+1.4 to +2.5 [+2.4]	+0.9 to +2.0 [+1.9]

Figures in brackets are the median of forecasts of Policy Board members

Source: Policy Board, Bank of Japan

Figures in brackets are the median of forecasts of Policy Board members

Source: Policy Board, Bank of Japan

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k150121a.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140715a.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1510b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1601b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1604b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1607b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1701b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1704b.pdf

The Jibun Bank Flash Japan Composite Output Index decreased from 36.2 in Mar to 27.8 in Apr (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/211669757e2d4b73b524edc355c711ba). The Jibun Bank Flash Japan Services Business Activity Index decreased from 33.8 in Mar to 22.8 in Apr (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/211669757e2d4b73b524edc355c711ba). The Jibun Bank Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI Index™ with the Flash Japan

Manufacturing PMI™ decreased from 44.1 in Mar to 37.8 in Apr

(https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/211669757e2d4b73b524edc355c711ba). Joe Hayes, Economist at HIS

Markit, finds sharp internal economy contraction (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/211669757e2d4b73b524edc355c711ba).The Jibun Bank Composite Output PMI Index decreased from 36.2 in Mar to 25.8 in Apr, indicating contracting business activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/b6241ffc6ae34198afd8072e0e10d692). The Jibun Bank Business Activity Index of Services decreased to 21.5 in Apr from 33.8 in Mar (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/b6241ffc6ae34198afd8072e0e10d692). Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, finds contracting conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/b6241ffc6ae34198afd8072e0e10d692). The Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI™), seasonally adjusted, decreased from 44.8 in Mar to 41.9 in Apr (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/5924f49ed8814e40b66852c27122f2b6). New orders decreased while new foreign orders decreased. Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, finds contracting conditions in manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/5924f49ed8814e40b66852c27122f2b6). Table JPY provides the country data table for Japan.

Table JPY, Japan, Economic Indicators

Historical GDP and CPI	1981-2010 Real GDP Growth and CPI Inflation 1981-2010 Blog 8/9/11 Table 26
Corporate Goods Prices	Mar ∆% -0.9 12 months ∆% -0.4 Blog 4/19/20
Consumer Price Index	Mar NSA ∆% 0.3; Mar 12 months NSA ∆% 0.4 Blog 5/3/20
Real GDP Growth	IVQ2019 ∆%: -1.8 on IIIQ2019; IVQ2019 SAAR minus 7.1; ∆% from quarter a year earlier: minus 0.7 Blog 6/16/13 8/18/13 9/15/13 11/17/13 12/15/13 2/23/14 3/16/14 5/18/14 6/15/14 8/17/14 9/14/14 11/23/14 12/14/14 2/22/15 3/15/15 5/24/15 6/14/15 8/23/15 9/13/15 11/22/15 12/13/15 2/21/16 3/13/16 5/22/16 6/12/16 8/21/16 9/11/16 11/20/16 12/11/16 2/19/17 3/12/17 5/21/17 6/11/17 8/20/17 9/10/17 11/26/17 12/17/17 2/18/18 3/11/18 5/20/18 6/17/18 8/19/18 9/16/18 11/18/18 2/17/19 3/17/19 5/26/19 6/16/19 8/18/19 9/15/19 11/24/19 12/29/19 2/23/20 3/15/2020
Employment Report	Mar Unemployed 1.76 million Change in unemployed since last year: 20 thousand Unemployment rate: 2.5% Blog 5/3/20
All Industry Indices	Feb month SA ∆% -0.6 12-month NSA ∆% -2.1 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15
Industrial Production	Mar SA month ∆%: -3.7 Mar 12-month NSA ∆% -5.2 Earlier Data: Blog 3/29/15
Machine Orders	Total Dec ∆% -9.7 Private ∆%: -9.7 Excluding Volatile Orders minus 12.5 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Tertiary Index	Feb month SA ∆% -0.5 Feb 12 months NSA ∆% -0.9 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15
Wholesale and Retail Sales	Mar 12 months: Total ∆%: -5.5 Wholesale ∆%: -6.6 Retail ∆%: -4.6 Earlier Data: Blog 3/29/15
Family Income and Expenditure Survey	Mar 12-month ∆% total nominal consumption -5.5, real -6.0 Earlier Data: Blog 3/29/15
Trade Balance	Exports Mar 2020 12 months ∆%: -11.7 Imports Mar 12 months ∆% -5.0 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15

Links to blog comments in Table JPY: 5/3/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/05/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

4/19/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/04/contraction-of-united-states.html

4/5/2020 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/04/lockdown-of-economic-activity-in.html

3/22/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/03/sharp-contraction-of-valuations-of-risk.html

3/15/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/03/financial-markets-stress-in.html

2/23/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/declining-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

2/16/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/recovery-without-hiring-in-lost.html

2/9/2020 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

1/26/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/01/declining-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

1/19/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/01/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

12/29/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/diverging-economic-conditions-and.html

12/22/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/oscillating-valuations-of-risk.html

12/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/increase-in-valuations-of-risk_14.html

12/1/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

11/24/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/oscillating-risk-financial-assets-world.html

11/17/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial_16.html

11/3/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/decrease-of-fomc-policy-rate-monetary.html

10/27/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial_26.html

10/20/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/dollar-depreciation-fluctuating.html

10/6/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/volatility-of-valuations-of-risk.html

9/22/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/uncertain-fomc-outlook-of-monetary.html

9/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/competitive-exchange-rate-and-interest.html

9/8/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/increase-in-valuations-of-risk.html

8/25/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/contraction-of-valuations-of-risk.html

8/18/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/global-decline-of-yields-of-government.html

8/4/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/dollar-appreciation-contraction-of.html

7/21/2019 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/global-manufacturing-stress-world.html

7/14/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/fomc-uncertain-outlook-frank-h-knights.html

6/30/2019 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/06/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

6/16/2019 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/06/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

5/26/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/05/contraction-of-risk-financial-assets.html

3/17/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/03/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

2/17/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/02/dollar-revaluation-with-increases-in.html

11/18/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/11/weakening-gdp-growth-in-major-economies.html

9/16/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/09/recovery-without-hiring-in-lost.html

8/19/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/08/world-inflation-waves-lost-economic.html

6/17/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/fomc-increases-interest-rates-with.html

5/20/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/dollar-revaluation-united-states_24.html

3/11/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/twenty-three-million-unemployed-or.html

2/18/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/united-states-inflation-trend-or.html

12/17/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/fomc-increases-interest-rates-with.html

9/10/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

8/20/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

5/21/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/dollar-devaluation-world-inflation.html

3/12/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/increasing-interest-rates-twenty-four.html

12/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/rising-values-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/20/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/interest-rate-increase-could-well.html

9/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/interest-rate-uncertainty-and-valuation.html

8/21/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/interest-rate-policy-uncertainty-and.html

6/12/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/considerable-uncertainty-about-economic.html

5/22/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/most-fomc-participants-judged-that-if.html

3/13/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/monetary-policy-and-fluctuations-of_13.html

12/13/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/liftoff-of-interest-rates-with-volatile_17.html

11/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-liftoff-followed-by.html

9/13/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what_13.html

08/23/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/global-decline-of-values-of-financial.html

6/14/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/volatility-of-financial-asset.html

5/24/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/interest-rate-policy-and-dollar.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

3/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

2/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html

12/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/global-financial-and-economic-risk.html

11/23/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.htm

9/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitics-monetary-policy-and.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

6/15/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financialgeopolitical-risks-recovery.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html

2/23/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html

12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

VC China. China estimates an index of nonmanufacturing purchasing managers based on a sample of 1200 nonmanufacturing enterprises across the country (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Table CIPMNM provides this index and components. The total index increased from 55.7 in Jan 2011 to 58.0 in Mar 2012, decreasing to 53.9 in Aug 2013. The index decreased from 56.0 in Nov 2013 to 54.6 in Dec 2013, easing to 53.4 in Jan 2014. The index moved to 53.2 in Apr 2020. The index of new orders increased from 52.2 in Jan 2012 to 54.3 in Dec 2012 but fell to 50.1 in May 2013, barely above the neutral frontier of 50.0. The index of new orders stabilized at 51.0 in Nov-Dec 2013, easing to 50.9 in Jan 2014. The index of new orders moved to 52.1 in Apr 2020.

Table CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted

	Total Index	New Orders	Interm. Input Prices	Subs Prices	Exp
Apr 2020	53.2	52.1	49.0	45.4	60.1
Mar	52.3	49.2	49.4	46.1	57.3
Feb	29.6	26.5	49.3	43.9	40.0
Jan	54.1	50.6	53.3	50.5	59.6
Dec 2019	53.5	50.4	52.4	50.3	59.1
Nov	54.4	51.3	53.2	51.3	61.0
Oct	52.8	49.4	51.3	48.9	60.7
Sep	53.7	50.5	52.8	50.0	59.7
Aug	53.8	50.1	50.8	49.1	60.4
Jul	53.7	50.4	52.9	50.6	59.8
Jun	54.2	51.5	51.5	49.7	60.6
May	54.3	50.3	52.2	49.9	60.2
Apr	54.3	50.8	53.0	50.5	60.3
Mar	54.8	52.5	52.5	51.0	61.1
Feb	54.3	50.7	52.7	50.1	61.5
Jan	54.7	51.0	52.0	49.8	59.6
Dec 2018	53.8	50.4	50.1	47.6	60.8
Nov	53.4	50.1	50.8	49.4	60.9
Oct	53.9	50.1	54.9	51.2	60.6
Sep	54.9	51.0	55.6	51.5	60.1
Aug	54.2	50.6	54.3	50.9	61.4
Jul	54.0	51.0	53.9	52.0	60.2
Jun	55.0	50.6	53.5	51.1	60.8
May	54.9	51.0	54.2	50.6	61.0
Apr	54.8	51.1	52.7	50.6	61.5
Mar	54.6	50.1	49.9	49.3	61.1
Feb	54.4	50.5	53.2	49.9	61.2
Jan	55.3	51.9	53.9	52.6	61.7
Dec 2017	55.0	52.0	54.8	52.6	60.9
Nov	54.8	51.8	56.2	52.8	61.6
Oct	54.3	51.1	54.3	51.6	60.6
Sep	55.4	52.3	56.1	51.7	61.7
Aug	53.4	50.9	54.4	51.5	61.0
Jul	54.5	51.1	53.1	50.9	61.1
Jun	54.9	51.4	51.2	49.3	61.1
May	54.5	50.9	51.1	48.8	60.2
Apr	54.0	50.5	51.7	50.2	59.7
Mar	55.1	51.9	52.3	49.7	61.3
Feb	54.2	51.2	53.7	51.4	62.4
Jan	54.6	51.3	55.1	51.0	58.9
Dec 2016	54.5	52.1	56.2	51.9	59.5
Nov	54.7	51.8	53.5	51.4	60.7
Oct	54.0	50.9	53.7	51.5	60.6
Sep	53.7	51.4	51.7	50.1	61.1
Aug	53.5	49.8	52.6	50.4	59.4
Jul	53.9	49.9	51.4	49.5	59.5
Jun	53.7	50.8	51.6	50.6	58.6
May	53.1	49.2	51.6	49.8	57.8
Apr	53.5	48.7	52.1	49.1	59.1
Mar	53.8	50.8	51.4	49.5	59.0
Feb	52.7	48.7	50.5	48.3	59.5
Jan	53.5	49.6	49.9	47.7	58.4
Dec2015	54.4	51.7	49.0	48.2	58.3
Nov	53.6	50.2	49.3	47.7	60.0
Oct	53.1	51.2	51.2	48.8	61.1
Sep	53.4	50.2	50.8	47.9	60.0
Aug	53.4	49.6	49.6	47.8	59.7
Jul	53.9	50.1	48.9	47.4	60.0
Jun	53.8	51.3	50.6	48.7	59.7
May	53.2	49.5	52.8	50.4	60.1
Apr	53.4	49.1	50.8	48.9	60.0
Mar	53.7	50.3	50.0	48.4	58.8
Feb	53.9	51.2	52.5	51.2	58.7
Jan	53.7	50.2	47.6	46.9	59.6
Dec 2014	54.1	50.5	50.1	47.3	59.5
Nov	53.9	50.1	50.6	47.7	59.7
Oct	53.8	51.0	52.0	48.8	59.9
Sep	54.0	49.5	49.8	47.3	60.9
Aug	54.4	50.0	52.2	48.3	61.2
Jul	54.2	50.7	53.4	49.5	61.5
Jun	55.0	50.7	56.0	50.8	60.4
May	55.5	52.7	54.5	49.0	60.7
Apr	54.8	50.8	52.4	49.4	61.5
Mar	54.5	50.8	52.8	49.5	61.5
Feb	55.0	51.4	52.1	49.0	59.9
Jan	53.4	50.9	54.5	50.1	58.1
Dec 2013	54.6	51.0	56.9	52.0	58.7
Nov	56.0	51.0	54.8	49.5	61.3
Oct	56.3	51.6	56.1	51.4	60.5
Sep	55.4	53.4	56.7	50.6	60.1
Aug	53.9	50.9	57.1	51.2	62.9
Jul	54.1	50.3	58.2	52.4	63.9
Jun	53.9	50.3	55.0	50.6	61.8
May	54.3	50.1	54.4	50.7	62.9
Apr	54.5	50.9	51.1	47.6	62.5
Mar	55.6	52.0	55.3	50.0	62.4
Feb	54.5	51.8	56.2	51.1	62.7
Jan	56.2	53.7	58.2	50.9	61.4
Dec 2012	56.1	54.3	53.8	50.0	64.6
Nov	55.6	53.2	52.5	48.4	64.6
Oct	55.5	51.6	58.1	50.5	63.4
Sep	53.7	51.8	57.5	51.3	60.9
Aug	56.3	52.7	57.6	51.2	63.2
Jul	55.6	53.2	49.7	48.7	63.9
Jun	56.7	53.7	52.1	48.6	65.5
May	55.2	52.5	53.6	48.5	65.4
Apr	56.1	52.7	57.9	50.3	66.1
Mar	58.0	53.5	60.2	52.0	66.6
Feb	57.3	52.7	59.0	51.2	63.8
Jan	55.7	52.2	58.2	51.1	65.3

Notes: Interm.: Intermediate; Subs: Subscription; Exp: Business Expectations

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart CIPMNM provides China’s nonmanufacturing purchasing managers’ index. The index fell from 56.0 in Oct 2013 to 53.2 in Apr 2020.

Chart CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Table CIPMMFG provides the index of purchasing managers of manufacturing seasonally adjusted of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The general index (IPM) rose from 50.5 in Jan 2012 to 53.3 in Apr 2012, falling to 49.2 in Aug 2012, rebounding to 50.6 in Dec 2012. The index fell to 50.3 in Jul 2013, barely above the neutral frontier at 50.0, recovering to 51.4 in Nov 2013 but falling to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.5 in Jan 2014, 50.1 in Dec 2014 and 52.0 in Mar 2020. The index of new orders fell from 54.5 in Apr 2012 to 51.2 in Dec 2012. The index of new orders fell from 52.3 in Nov 2013 to 52.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.9 in Jan 2014 and moved to 50.4 in Dec 2014. The index moved to 52.0 in Mar 2020.

Table CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted

	IPM	PI	NOI	INV	EMP	SDEL
2020
Apr	50.8	53.7	50.2	48.2	50.2	50.1
Mar	52.0	54.1	52.0	49.0	50.9	48.2
Feb	35.7	27.8	29.3	33.9	31.8	32.1
Jan	50.0	51.3	51.4	47.1	47.5	49.9
2019
Dec	50.2	53.2	51.2	47.2	47.3	51.1
Nov	50.2	52.6	51.3	47.8	47.3	50.5
Oct	49.3	50.8	49.6	47.4	47.3	50.1
Sep	49.8	52.3	50.5	47.6	47.0	50.5
Aug	49.5	51.9	49.7	47.5	46.9	50.3
Jul	49.7	52.1	49.8	48.0	47.1	50.1
Jun	49.4	51.3	49.6	48.2	46.9	50.2
May	49.4	51.7	49.8	47.4	47.0	50.9
Apr	50.1	52.1	51.4	47.2	47.2	49.9
Mar	50.5	52.7	51.6	48.4	47.6	50.2
Feb	49.2	49.5	50.6	46.3	47.5	49.8
Jan	49.5	50.9	49.6	48.1	47.8	50.1
2018
Dec	49.4	50.8	49.7	47.1	48.0	50.4
Nov	50.0	51.9	50.4	47.4	48.3	50.3
Oct	50.2	52.0	50.8	47.2	48.1	49.5
Sep	50.8	53.0	52.0	47.8	48.3	49.7
Aug	51.3	53.3	52.2	48.7	49.4	49.6
Jul	51.2	53.0	52.3	48.9	49.2	50.0
Jun	51.5	53.6	53.2	48.8	49.0	50.2
May	51.9	54.1	53.8	49.6	49.1	50.1
Apr	51.4	53.1	52.9	49.5	49.0	50.2
Mar	51.5	53.1	53.3	49.6	49.1	50.1
Feb	50.3	50.7	51.0	49.3	48.1	48.4
Jan	51.3	53.5	52.6	48.8	48.3	49.2
2017
Dec	51.6	54.0	53.4	48.0	48.5	49.3
Nov	51.8	54.3	53.6	48.4	48.8	49.5
Oct	51.6	53.4	52.9	48.6	49.0	48.7
Sep	52.4	54.7	54.8	48.9	49.0	49.3
Aug	51.7	54.1	53.1	48.3	49.1	49.3
Jul	51.4	53.5	52.8	48.5	49.2	50.1
Jun	51.7	54.4	53.1	48.6	49.0	49.9
May	51.2	53.4	52.3	48.5	49.4	50.2
Apr	51.2	53.8	52.3	48.3	49.2	50.5
Mar	51.8	54.2	53.3	48.3	50.0	50.3
Feb	51.6	53.7	53.0	48.6	49.7	50.5
Jan	51.3	53.1	52.8	48.0	49.2	49.8
2016
Dec	51.4	53.3	53.2	48.0	48.9	50.0
Nov	51.7	53.9	53.2	48.4	49.2	49.7
Oct	51.2	53.3	52.8	48.1	48.8	50.2
Sep	50.4	52.8	50.9	47.4	48.6	49.9
Aug	50.4	52.6	51.3	47.6	48.4	50.6
Jul	49.9	52.1	50.4	47.3	48.2	50.5
Jun	50.0	52.5	50.5	47.0	47.9	50.7
May	50.1	52.3	50.7	47.6	48.2	50.4
Apr	50.1	52.2	51.0	47.4	47.8	50.1
Mar	50.2	52.3	51.4	48.2	48.1	51.3
Feb	49.0	50.2	48.6	48.0	47.6	49.8
Jan	49.4	51.4	49.5	46.8	47.8	50.5
2015
Dec	49.7	52.2	50.2	47.6	47.4	50.7
Nov	49.6	51.9	49.8	47.1	47.6	50.6
Oct	49.8	52.2	50.3	47.2	47.8	50.6
Sep	49.8	52.3	50.2	47.5	47.9	50.8
Aug	49.7	51.7	49.7	48.3	47.9	50.6
Jul	50.0	52.4	49.9	48.4	48.0	50.4
Jun	50.2	52.9	50.1	48.7	48.1	50.3
May	50.2	52.9	50.6	48.2	48.2	50.9
Apr	50.1	52.6	50.2	48.2	48.0	50.4
Mar	50.1	52.1	50.2	48.0	48.4	50.1
Feb	49.9	51.4	50.4	48.2	47.8	49.9
Jan	49.8	51.7	50.2	47.3	47.9	50.2
2014
Dec	50.1	52.2	50.4	47.5	48.1	49.9
Nov	50.3	52.5	50.9	47.7	48.2	50.3
Oct	50.8	53.1	51.6	48.4	48.4	50.1
Sep	51.1	53.6	52.2	48.8	48.2	50.1
Aug	51.1	53.2	52.5	48.6	48.2	50.0
Jul	51.7	54.2	53.6	49.0	48.3	50.2
Jun	51.0	53.0	52.8	48.0	48.6	50.5
May	50.8	52.8	52.3	48.0	48.2	50.3
Apr	50.4	52.5	51.2	48.1	48.3	50.1
Mar	50.3	52.7	50.6	47.8	48.3	49.8
Feb	50.2	52.6	50.5	47.4	48.0	49.9
Jan	50.5	53.0	50.9	47.8	48.2	49.8
Dec 2013	51.0	53.9	52.0	47.6	48.7	50.5
Nov	51.4	54.5	52.3	47.8	49.6	50.6
Oct	51.4	54.4	52.5	48.6	49.2	50.8
Sep	51.1	52.9	52.8	48.5	49.1	50.8
Aug	51.0	52.6	52.4	48.0	49.3	50.4
Jul	50.3	52.4	50.6	47.6	49.1	50.1
Jun	50.1	52.0	50.4	47.4	48.7	50.3
May	50.8	53.3	51.8	47.6	48.8	50.8
Apr	50.6	52.6	51.7	47.5	49.0	50.8
Mar	50.9	52.7	52.3	47.5	49.8	51.1
Feb	50.1	51.2	50.1	49.5	47.6	48.3
Jan	50.4	51.3	51.6	50.1	47.8	50.0
Dec 2012	50.6	52.0	51.2	47.3	49.0	48.8
Nov	50.6	52.5	51.2	47.9	48.7	49.9
Oct	50.2	52.1	50.4	47.3	49.2	50.1
Sep	49.8	51.3	49.8	47.0	48.9	49.5
Aug	49.2	50.9	48.7	45.1	49.1	50.0
Jul	50.1	51.8	49.0	48.5	49.5	49.0
Jun	50.2	52.0	49.2	48.2	49.7	49.1
May	50.4	52.9	49.8	45.1	50.5	49.0
Apr	53.3	57.2	54.5	48.5	51.0	49.6
Mar	53.1	55.2	55.1	49.5	51.0	48.9
Feb	51.0	53.8	51.0	48.8	49.5	50.3
Jan	50.5	53.6	50.4	49.7	47.1	49.7

IPM: Index of Purchasing Managers; PI: Production Index; NOI: New Orders Index; EMP: Employed Person Index; SDEL: Supplier Delivery Time Index

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

China estimates the manufacturing index of purchasing managers on the basis of a sample of 820 enterprises (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Chart CIPMMFG provides the manufacturing index of purchasing managers. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013. The index decreased from 51.4 in Nov 2013 to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index moved to 50.8 in Apr 2020.

Chart CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Chart CIPCOMP provides China’s composite, manufacturing and nonmanufacturing, index. The index remains above the neutral 50.0, moving to 53.4 in Apr 2020.

Chart CIPCOMP, China, Composite Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Growth of China’s GDP in IQ2020 relative to the same period in 2019 was minus 6.8 percent and cumulative growth to IQ2020 was minus 6.8 percent in the COVID-19 event, as shown in Table VC-GDP. Secondary industry accounts for 35.7 percent of cumulative GDP in IQ2020. Tertiary industry accounts for 59.4 percent of cumulative GDP in IQ2020 and primary industry for 4.9 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is shifting to lower growth rates with improvement in living standards by increasing growth of services. The bottom block of Table VC-GDP provides quarter-on-quarter growth rates of GDP and their annual equivalent. China’s GDP growth decelerated significantly from annual equivalent 10.0 percent in IQ2011 to 6.1 percent in IVQ2011 and 7.8 percent in IQ2012, rebounding to 8.7 percent in IIQ2012, 7.4 percent in IIIQ2012 and 8.2 percent in IVQ2012. Annual equivalent growth in IQ2013 eased to 7.8 percent and to 7.4 percent in IIQ2013, rebounding to 8.7 percent in IIIQ2013. Annual equivalent growth was 6.6 percent in IVQ2013, stabilizing to 7.4 percent in IQ2014 and to 7.4 percent in IIQ2014. Annual equivalent growth stabilized at 7.4 percent in IIIQ2014 and 7.0 percent in IVQ2014. Growth moved to annual equivalent 7.4 percent in IQ2015, 7.4 percent in IIQ2015 and 7.0 percent in IIIQ2015. Growth slowed to 6.6 percent in annual equivalent in IVQ2015 and 6.1 percent in IQ2016. Growth increased to annual equivalent 7.4 percent in IIQ2016 and 7.0 percent in IIIQ2016, decreasing to 6.6 percent in IVQ2016. Growth accelerated to annual equivalent 7.0 percent in IQ2017, accelerating to 7.4 percent in IIQ2017 and decelerating at 6.6 percent in IIIQ2017. Growth decelerated to 6.1 percent annual equivalent in IVQ2017. Growth accelerated to 7.0 percent annual equivalent in IQ2018, stabilizing to 7.0 percent in IIQ2018. Growth delerated to annual equivalent 6.1 percent in IIIQ2018, stabilizing to 6.1 percent annual equivalent in IVQ2018. Growth accelerated to 6.6 percent annual equivalent in IQ2019, decelerating to 6.1 percent in IIQ2019. Growth decelerated to 5.3 percent annual equivalent in IIIQ2019, accelerating to 6.1 percent annual equivalent in IVQ2019. GDP contracted at annual equivalent 71.0 percent in IQ2020 in the COVID-19 event.

Table VC-GDP China, Quarterly Growth of GDP, Current CNY 100 Million and Inflation Adjusted ∆%

Cumulative GDP IQ2020	Value Current CNY Billion IQ2020	Value Current CNY Billion IQ2020 to IQ2020	IQ2020 Year-on-Year Constant Prices ∆%	Cumulative to IQ2020 ∆%
GDP	20,650.4	20,650.4	-6.8	-6.8
Primary Industry	1,018.6	1,018.6	-3.2	-3.2
Secondary Industry	7,363.8	7,363.8	-9.6	-9.6
Tertiary Industry	12,268.0	12,268.0	-5.2	-5.2
Growth in Quarter Relative to Prior Quarter	∆% on Prior Quarter		∆% Annual Equivalent	∆% Year-on-Year
2020
IQ2020	-9.8		-71.0	-6.8
2019
IVQ2019	1.5		6.1	6.0
IIIQ2019	1.3		5.3	6.0
IIQ2019	1.5		6.1	6.2
IQ2019	1.6		6.6	6.4
2018
IVQ2018	1.5		6.1	6.5
IIIQ2018	1.5		6.1	6.7
IIQ2018	1.7		7.0	6.9
IQ2018	1.7		7.0	6.9
2017
IVQ2017	1.5		6.1	6.8
IIIQ2017	1.6		6.6	6.9
IIQ2017	1.8		7.4	7.0
IQ2017	1.7		7.0	7.0
2016
IVQ2016	1.6		6.6	6.9
IIIQ2016	1.7		7.0	6.8
IIQ2016	1.8		7.4	6.8
IQ2016	1.5		6.1	6.9
2015
IVQ2015	1.6		6.6	6.9
IIIQ2015	1.7		7.0	7.0
IIQ2015	1.8		7.4	7.1
IQ2015	1.8		7.4	7.1
2014
IVQ2014	1.7		7.0	7.3
IIIQ2014	1.8		7.4	7.2
IIQ2014	1.8		7.4	7.6
IQ2014	1.8		7.4	7.5
2013
IVQ2013	1.6		6.6	7.7
IIIQ2013	2.1		8.7	7.9
IIQ2013	1.8		7.4	7.6
IQ2013	1.9		7.8	7.9
2012
IVQ2012	2.0		8.2	8.1
IIIQ2012	1.8		7.4	7.5
IIQ2012	2.1		8.7	7.6
IQ2012	1.9		7.8	8.1
2011
IVQ2011	1.5		6.1	8.8
IIIQ2011	1.9		7.8	9.4
IIQ2011	2.4		10.0	10.0
IQ2011	2.4		10.0	10.2

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Growth of China’s GDP in IQ2020 relative to the same period in 2019 was minus 6.8 percent and cumulative growth to IQ2020 was minus 6.8 percent in the COVID-19 event, as shown in Table VC-GDP. Secondary industry accounts for 35.7 percent of cumulative GDP in IQ2020. Tertiary industry accounts for 59.4 percent of cumulative GDP in IQ2020 and primary industry for 4.9 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is shifting to lower growth rates with improvement in living standards by increasing growth of services. Table VC-GDPA shows that growth decelerated from 12.1 percent in IQ2010 and 11.2 percent in IIQ2010 to 7.9 percent in IQ2013, 7.6 percent in IIQ2013 and 7.9 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP grew 7.7 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 1.6 percent relative to IIIQ2013, which is equivalent to 6.6 percent per year. GDP grew 7.5 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent in IQ2014 that is equivalent to 7.4 percent per year. GDP grew 7.6 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is annual equivalent 7.4 percent. In IIIQ2014, GDP grew 7.2 percent relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is 7.4 percent in annual equivalent. GDP grew 1.7 percent in IVQ2014, which is 7.0 percent in annual equivalent and 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2015, GDP grew 1.8 percent, which is equivalent to 7.4 in a year and 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 1.8 percent in IIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.4 percent in a year, and grew 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.7 percent in IIIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent in a year, and grew 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.6 percent in IVQ2015, which is equivalent to 6.6 percent in a year and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, GDP grew at 1.5 percent, which is equivalent to 6.1 percent in a year, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.8 percent in IIQ2016, which is annual equivalent to 7.4 percent, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, GDP grew at 1.7 percent, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent in a year and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, GDP grew at 1.6 percent, equivalent to 6.6 percent in a year, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 7.0 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased at 1.7 percent, which is 7.0 percent in annual equivalent. In IIQ2017, GDP grew at 1.8 percent, which is annual equivalent at 7.4 percent, and increased 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.6 percent in IIIQ2017, which is annual equivalent at 6.6 percent, and increased at 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, GDP grew 1.5 percent, which is annual equivalent to 6.1 percent, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.7 percent in IQ2018, which is annual equivalent at 7.0 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2018, GDP grew at 1.7 percent, which is annual equivalent to 7.0 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.5 percent in IIIQ2018, which is annual equivalent at 6.1 percent, and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2018, GDP grew at 1.5 percent, which is annual equivalent to 6.1 percent, and increased 6.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.6 percent in IQ2019, which is annual equivalent to 6.6 percent, and increased 6.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2019, GDP grew at 1.5 percent, which is annual equivalent to 6.1 percent and increased 6.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.3 percent in IIIQ2019, which is annual equivalent to 5.3 percent, and increased 6.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2019, GDP grew at 1.5 percent, which is annual equivalent to 6.1 percent, and increased 6.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP contracted minus 9.8 percent in IQ2020, which is annual equivalent to minus 71.0 percent, and contracted minus 6.8 percent in IQ2020, in the COVID-19 event.

Table VC-GDPA China, Growth Rate of GDP, ∆% Relative to a Year Earlier and ∆% Relative to Prior Quarter

	IQ2020
GDP	-6.8
Primary Industry	-3.2
Secondary Industry	-9.6
Tertiary Industry	-5.2
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	-9.8 (-71.0)
	IQ2019	IIQ2019	IIIQ2019	IVQ2019
GDP	6.4	6.2	6.0	6.0
Primary Industry	2.7	3.3	2.7	3.4
Secondary Industry	6.1	5.6	5.2	5.8
Tertiary Industry	7.0	7.0	7.2	6.6
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.6 (6.6)	1.5 (6.1)	1.3 (5.3)	1.5 (6.1)
	IQ2018	IIQ2018	IIIQ2018	IVQ2018
GDP	6.9	6.9	6.7	6.5
Primary Industry	3.2	3.2	3.6	3.5
Secondary Industry	6.3	6.0	5.3	5.8
Tertiary Industry	7.5	7.8	7.9	7.4
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.7 (7.0)	1.7 (7.0)	1.5 (6.1)	1.5 (6.1)
	IQ2017	IIQ2017	IIIQ2017	IVQ2017
GDP	7.0	7.0	6.9	6.8
Primary Industry	3.0	3.8	3.9	4.4
Secondary Industry	6.4	6.4	6.0	5.7
Tertiary Industry	7.7	7.6	8.0	8.3
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.7 (7.0)	1.8 (7.4)	1.6 (6.6)	1.5 (6.1)
	IQ2016	IIQ2016	IIIQ2016	IVQ2016
GDP	6.9	6.8	6.8	6.9
Primary Industry	2.9	3.1	3.5	2.9
Secondary Industry	5.8	6.3	6.1	6.1
Tertiary Industry	7.6	7.5	7.6	8.3
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.5 (6.1)	1.8 (7.4)	1.7 (7.0)	1.6 (6.6)
	IQ2015	IIQ2015	IIIQ2015	IVQ2015
GDP	7.1	7.1	7.0	6.9
Primary Industry	3.2	3.5	3.8	4.1
Secondary Industry	6.4	6.1	6.0	6.1
Tertiary Industry	7.9	8.4	8.4	8.2
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.8 (7.4)	1.8 (7.4)	1.7 (7.0)	1.6 (6.6)
	IQ2014	IIQ2014	IIIQ2014	IVQ2014
GDP	7.5	7.6	7.2	7.3
Primary Industry	3.5	3.9	4.2	4.1
Secondary Industry	7.3	7.4	7.4	7.3
Tertiary Industry	7.1	8.0	7.9	8.1
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.8 (7.4)	1.8 (7.4)	1.8 (7.4)	1.7 (7.0)
	IQ2013	IIQ2013	IIIQ2013	IVQ2013
GDP	7.9	7.6	7.9	7.7
Primary Industry	3.4	3.0	3.4	4.0
Secondary Industry	7.8	7.6	7.8	7.8
Tertiary Industry	8.3	8.3	8.4	8.3
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.9 (7.8)	1.8 (7.4)	2.1 (8.7)	1.6 (6.6)
	IQ2012	IIQ2012	IIIQ2012	IVQ2012
GDP	8.1	7.6	7.5	8.1
Primary Industry	3.8	4.3	4.2	4.5
Secondary Industry	9.1	8.3	8.1	8.1
Tertiary Industry	7.5	7.7	7.9	8.1
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.9 (7.8)	2.1 (8.7)	1.8 (7.4)	2.0 (8.2)
	IQ2011	IIQ2011	IIIQ2011	IVQ2011
GDP	10.2	10.0	9.4	8.8
Primary Industry	3.5	3.2	3.8	4.5
Secondary Industry	11.1	11.0	10.8	10.6
Tertiary Industry	9.1	9.2	9.0	8.9
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	2.4 (10.0)	2.4 (10.0)	1.9 (7.8)	1.5 (6.1)
	IQ2010	IIQ2010	IIIQ2010	IVQ2010
GDP	12.1	11.2	10.7	12.1
Primary Industry	3.8	3.6	4.0	3.8
Secondary Industry	14.5	13.3	12.6	14.5
Tertiary Industry	10.5	9.9	9.7	10.5

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Growth of China’s GDP in IVQ2016 relative to the same period in 2016 was 6.8 percent and

Chart VC-GDP of the National Bureau of Statistics of China provides annual value and growth rates of GDP. China’s GDP growth in 2016 is still high at 6.7 percent but at the lowest rhythm in five years.

Chart VC-GDP, China, Gross Domestic Product, Million Yuan and ∆%

Source: National bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart VC-FXR provides China’s foreign exchange reserves. FX reserves grew from $2399.2 billion in 2009 to $38430 billion in 2013 driven by high growth of China’s trade surplus, decreasing to $30105 billion in 2016.

Chart VC-FXR, China, Foreign Exchange Reserves, 2012-2016

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Chart VC-Trade provides China’s imports and exports. Exports exceeded imports with resulting large trade balance surpluses that increased foreign exchange reserves.

Chart VC-Trade, China, Imports and Exports of Goods, 2012-2016, $100 Million US Dollars

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Chart VC-PCDI provides the level and growth rates of per capita disposable income in China.

Chart VC-PCDI, China, Level and Growth Rates of Per Capita Disposable Income

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

The Caixin Flash China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) compiled by Markit (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/883014a121534f51bc42e5060845f727) is mixed. The overall Flash Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI^™ decreased from 47.3 in Aug to 47.0 in Sep, while the Flash Caixin China General Manufacturing Output Index decreased from 46.4 in Aug to 45.7 in Sep, indicating weaker conditions. He Fan, Chief Economist at Caixin Insight Group finds need of fiscal and monetary policy (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/883014a121534f51bc42e5060845f727). The Caixin China General Services PMI^™, compiled by Markit, shows that the Caixin Composite Output, combining manufacturing and services, increased from 46.7 in Mar to 47.6 in Apr (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/62c70775a2b74fce87c79598d4907fd9). Dr. Zhengsheng Zhong, Chairman and Chief Economist at CEBM Group, finds contracting activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/62c70775a2b74fce87c79598d4907fd9). The Caixin General Manufacturing PMI^™ decreased to 49.4 in Apr from 50.1 in Mar, indicating contracting conditions in manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/ff100419303d4864ae187d4acf04c4c2). Dr. Zhengsheng Zhong, Chairman and Chief Economist at CEBM Group, finds weak growth conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/ff100419303d4864ae187d4acf04c4c2). Table CNY provides the country data table for China.

Table CNY, China, Economic Indicators

Price Indexes for Industry	Mar 12-month ∆%: -1.5 Mar month ∆%: -1.0 Blog 4/26/20
Consumer Price Index	Mar 12-month ∆%: 4.3 Mar month ∆%: -1.2 Blog 4/26/20
Value Added of Industry	Mar month ∆%: 32.1% Feb month ∆%: -24.9 Jan-Mar 2020/Jan-Mar 2019 ∆%: -8.4 Earlier Data Blog 4/19/15
GDP Growth Rate	Year-on-Year IQ2020 ∆%: minus 6.8 I Quarter 2020 ∆%: minus 9.8 Quarter IQ2020 AE ∆%: minus 71.0 Blog 5/10/20
Investment in Fixed Assets	Total Jan-Mar 2020 ∆%: -16.1 Real estate development: ∆% minus 7.7 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Retail Sales	Mar month ∆%: minus 0.2%, Feb -3.6%. Jan-Mar 2020 ∆%: -19.0 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Trade Balance	Apr 2020 Balance $45.34 B Exports 12M ∆% 8.2 Imports 12M ∆% -10.2 Cumulative 2019 Balance $424.9 Dec 2019 Balance $46.79 billion Exports 12M ∆% 7.6 Imports 12M ∆% 16.3 Dec 2018 $56.80 billion Exports 12M ∆% -1.1 Imports 12M ∆% 0.3 Dec 2018 balance 57.06 billion Exports 12M ∆% -4.4 Imports 12M ∆% -7.6 Dec 2017 balance $53.85 billion 2018 Exports ∆% 9.9 2018 Imports ∆% 15.8 2017 Exports ∆% 7.9 2017 Imports ∆% 15.9 2016 Exports ∆% 11.3 2016 Imports ∆% 17.3 Cumulative Dec 2018: $351.76 Cumulative Dec 2017: $422.50 billion Cumulative Dec 2016: $486.0 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15

Links to blog comments in Table CNY: 5/10/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/05/fifty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

4/26/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/04/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

3/15/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/03/financial-markets-stress-in.html

2/16/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/recovery-without-hiring-in-lost.html

2/2/2020 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/decreasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

1/19/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/01/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

12/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/increase-in-valuations-of-risk_14.html

11/17/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial_16.html

11/3/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/decrease-of-fomc-policy-rate-monetary.html

10/20/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/dollar-depreciation-fluctuating.html

9/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/competitive-exchange-rate-and-interest.html

7/28/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/dollar-appreciation-in-anticipations-of.html

7/14/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/fomc-uncertain-outlook-frank-h-knights.html

4/28/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/04/high-levels-of-valuations-of-risk.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

VD Euro Area. Using calendar and seasonally adjusted chain-linked volumes (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/), the GDP of the euro area (19 countries) fell 5.7 percent from IQ2008 to IIQ2009. The GDP of the euro area (19 countries) increased 15.4 percent from IIIQ2009 to IVQ2019 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.4 percent. The GDP of the euro area (19 countries) is higher by 8.8 percent in IVQ2019 relative to the pre-recession peak in IQ2008, growing at annual equivalent rate of 0.7 percent. The GDP of the euro area (18) countries increased at the average yearly rate of 2.3 percent from IQ1999 to IQ2008 while that of the euro area (19 countries) increased at 2.3 percent. The GDP of the euro area (19 countries) grew at 2.3 percent annual equivalent from IQ1999 to the pre-recession peak in IQ2008. The GDP of the euro area would grow under trend of 2.3 percent from €2,614,582.9 million in IQ2008 to €3,415,396.4 million in IVQ2019. The estimate of GDP of €2,845,893.5 million in IVQ2019 is 16.7 percent below trend. Table VD-EUR provides yearly growth rates of the combined GDP of the members of the European Monetary Union (EMU) or euro area since 1999. Growth was very strong at 3.2 percent in 2006 and 3.0 percent in 2007. The global recession had strong impact with growth of only 0.4 percent in 2008 and decline of 4.5 percent in 2009. Recovery was at lower growth rates of 2.1 percent in 2010 and 1.5 percent in 2011. EUROSTAT estimates growth of GDP of the euro area of minus 0.9 percent in 2012 and minus 0.3 percent in 2013. Euro Area GDP grew 1.2 percent in 2014 and grew 2.0 percent in 2015. The GDP of the euro area grew 1.7 percent in 2016.

Table VD-EUR, Euro Area, Yearly Percentage Change of Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, Unemployment and GDP ∆%

Year	HICP ∆%	Unemployment %	GDP ∆%
1999	1.2	9.7	3.0
2000	2.2	8.9	3.8
2001	2.4	8.3	2.1
2002	2.3	8.6	1.0
2003	2.1	9.1	0.7
2004	2.2	9.3	2.3
2005	2.2	9.1	1.7
2006	2.2	8.4	3.2
2007	2.2	7.5	3.0
2008	3.3	7.6	0.4
2009	0.3	9.6	-4.5
2010	1.6	10.2	2.1
2011	2.7	10.2	1.5
2012	2.5	11.4	-0.9
2013	1.3	12.0	-0.3
2014	0.4	11.6	1.2
2015	0.0	10.9	2.0
2016	0.2	10.0	1.7

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

The GDP of the euro area in 2015 in current US dollars in the dataset of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is $11,990.9 billion or 16.3 percent of world GDP of $73,598.8 billion (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/02/weodata/index.aspx). The sum of the GDP of France $2420.2 billion with the GDP of Germany of $3365.3 billion, Italy of $1815.8 billion and Spain $1199.7 billion is $8,801.0 billion or 73.4 percent of total euro area GDP and 13.1 percent of World GDP. The four largest economies account for slightly more than three quarters of economic activity of the euro area. Table VD-EUR1 is constructed with the dataset of EUROSTAT, providing growth rates of the euro area as a whole and of the largest four economies of Germany, France, Italy and Spain annually from 1996 to 2016. The impact of the global recession on the overall euro area economy and on the four largest economies was quite strong. There was sharp contraction in 2009 and growth rates have not rebounded to earlier growth with exception of Germany in 2010 and 2011.

Table VD-EUR1, Euro Area, Real GDP Growth Rate, ∆%

	Euro Area	Germany	France	Italy	Spain
2016	1.7	1.9	1.2	0.9	3.2
2015	2.0	1.7	1.3	0.8	3.2
2014	1.2	1.6	0.6	0.1	1.4
2013	-0.3	0.5	0.6	-1.7	-1.7
2012	-0.9	0.5	0.2	-2.8	-2.9
2011	1.5	3.7	2.1	0.6	-1.0
2010	2.1	4.1	2.0	1.7	0.0
2009	-4.5	-5.6	-2.9	-5.5	-3.6
2008	0.4	1.1	0.2	-1.1	1.1
2007	3.0	3.3	2.4	1.5	3.8
2006	3.2	3.7	2.4	2.0	4.2
2005	1.7	0.7	1.6	0.9	3.7
2004	2.3	1.2	2.8	1.6	3.2
2003	0.7	-0.7	0.8	0.2	3.2
2002	1.0	0.0	1.1	0.2	2.9
2001	2.1	1.7	2.0	1.8	4.0
2000	3.8	3.0	3.9	3.7	5.3
1999	3.0	2.0	3.4	1.6	4.5
1998	2.9	2.0	3.6	1.6	4.3
Average 1999-2016	1.2	1.3	1.3	0.3	1.7
Average 1999-2007	2.2	1.6	2.1	1.5	3.8
Average 2016-2007	0.3	1.0	0.6	-7.0*	-0.5*
1997	2.6	1.8	2.3	1.8	3.7
1996	1.6	0.8	1.4	1.3	2.7

Note: Absolute percentage change

Source: EUROSTAT

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

The Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index of the HIS Markit Flash Eurozone PMI^®, combining activity in manufacturing and services, decreased from 29.7 in Mar to 13.5 in Apr (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/b9c4af250a8e40efabbb1b120b368e6f). Chris Williamson, Associate Director at IHS Markit, finds that the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI index suggests GDP contracting at quarterly rate close to 7.5 percent (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/b9c4af250a8e40efabbb1b120b368e6f). The IHS Markit Eurozone PMI^® Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing activity with close association with GDP decreased from 29.7 in Mar to 13.6 in Apr (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/90fd4f17d89e410f9925c283a97e25ca). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds slower potential for contraction at around 7.5 percent in GDP ((https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/90fd4f17d89e410f9925c283a97e25ca). The IHS Markit Eurozone Services Business Activity Index decreased from 26.4 in Mar to 12.0 in Apr ((https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/90fd4f17d89e410f9925c283a97e25ca). The IHS Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI^® decreased from 44.5 in Mar to 33.6 in Apr (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/d9c45c2e3a1b4b45a4b68fbc0389385c). New export orders decreased. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds deteriorating conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/d9c45c2e3a1b4b45a4b68fbc0389385c). Table EUR provides the data table for the euro area.

Table EUR, Euro Area Economic Indicators

GDP	IVQ2019 ∆% 0.1; IVQ2019/IVQ2018 ∆% 1.0 Blog 9/13/15 11/22/15 12/13/15 2/14/16 3/13/16 5/1/16 5/15/16 6/12/16 8/7/16 8/14/16 9/11/16 11/20/16 12/11/16 02/26/17 3/12/17 5/21/17 6/11/17 8/20/17 9/10/17 11/26/17 12/10/17 2/18/18 3/11/18 5/20/18 6/10/18 8/19/18 9/16/18 11/18/18 12/16/18 3/10/19 5/26/19 6/9/19 9/15/19 12/29/19 3/22/20
Unemployment	Mar 2020: 7.4 % unemployment rate; Mar 2020: 12.156 million unemployed Blog 5/3/20
HICP	Mar month ∆%: 0.5 12 months Mar ∆%: 0.7 Blog 4/26/20
Producer Prices	Euro Zone industrial producer prices Mar ∆%: -1.5 Mar 12-month ∆%: -2.8 Blog 5/10/20
Industrial Production	Mar Month ∆%: -11.3; 12 months ∆%: -12.9 Earlier Data: Blog 5/19/15
Retail Sales	Mar month ∆%: -11.2 Mar 12 months ∆%: -9.2 Earlier Data: Blog 3/15/15
Confidence and Economic Sentiment Indicator	Sentiment 67.0 Apr 2020 Consumer -22.7 Feb 2020 Earlier Data: Blog 4/5/15
Trade	Jan-Mar 2020/Jan-Mar 2019 Exports ∆%: -1.8 Imports ∆%: -4.1 Mar 2020 12-month Exports ∆% -6.2 Imports ∆% -10.1 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15

Links to blog comments in Table EUR: 5/10/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/05/fifty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

5/3/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/05/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.htmlhttps://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/04/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

4/5/2020 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/04/lockdown-of-economic-activity-in.html

3/29/2020 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/03/weekly-rise-of-valuations-of-risk.html

3/22/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/03/sharp-contraction-of-valuations-of-risk.html

3/8/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/03/stress-of-world-financial-markets-fomc.html

3/1/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/sharp-worldwide-contraction-of.html

2/9/2020 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

1/26/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/01/declining-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

1/12/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/01/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

12/29/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/diverging-economic-conditions-and.html

12/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/increase-in-valuations-of-risk_14.html

12/8/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/increase-in-valuations-of-risk.html

1/24/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/oscillating-risk-financial-assets-world.html

11/10/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

11/3/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/decrease-of-fomc-policy-rate-monetary.html

10/20/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/dollar-depreciation-fluctuating.html

10/6/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/volatility-of-valuations-of-risk.html

9/22/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/uncertain-fomc-outlook-of-monetary.html

9/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/competitive-exchange-rate-and-interest.html

9/8/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/increase-in-valuations-of-risk.html

8/25/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/contraction-of-valuations-of-risk.html

8/4/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/dollar-appreciation-contraction-of.html

7/21/2019 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/global-manufacturing-stress-world.html

7/7/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/twenty-million-unemployed-or.html

6/9/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/06/increase-of-valuations-of-risk.html

5/26/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/05/contraction-of-risk-financial-assets.html

3/10/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/03/dollar-revaluation-twenty-one-million.html

12/16/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/12/slowing-world-economic-growth-and.html

9/16/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/09/recovery-without-hiring-in-lost.html

8/19/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/08/world-inflation-waves-lost-economic.html

6/10/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

5/20/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/dollar-revaluation-united-states_24.html

3/11/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/twenty-three-million-unemployed-or.html

2/18/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/united-states-inflation-trend-or.html

12/10/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

11/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/11/the-lost-economic-cycle-of-global_25.html

9/10/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

8/20/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

6/11/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/flattening-us-treasury-yield-curve.html

5/21/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/dollar-devaluation-world-inflation.html

3/12/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/increasing-interest-rates-twenty-four.html

2/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

12/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/rising-values-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/20/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/interest-rate-increase-could-well.html

11/13/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/dollar-revaluation-and-valuations-of.html

11/6/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/the-case-for-increase-in-federal-funds.html

9/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/interest-rate-uncertainty-and-valuation.html

8/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

8/7/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/global-competitive-easing-or.html

6/12/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/considerable-uncertainty-about-economic.html

5/15/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

5/1/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/economic-activity-appears-to-have.html

3/13/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/monetary-policy-and-fluctuations-of_13.html

3/6/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/twenty-five-million-unemployed-or.html

2/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/subdued-foreign-growth-and-dollar.html

12/13/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/liftoff-of-interest-rates-with-volatile_17.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

VE Germany. Table VE-DE provides yearly growth rates of the German economy from 1971 to 2019, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked (https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2019/11/PE19_448_811.html). Germany’s GDP fell 5.7 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.1 percent in 2008. Recovery had been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.2 percent in 2010, 3.9 percent in 2011 and 0.4 percent in 2012. Growth stabilized to 0.4 percent in 2013, increasing to 2.2 percent in 2014. The German economy grew at 1.7 percent in 2015 and grew at 2.2 percent in 2016. Germany’s GDP increased 2.5 percent in 2017 and increased 1.5 percent in 2018. The German economy grew at 0.6 percent in 2019.

The Federal Statistical Agency of Germany analyzes the fall and recovery of the German economy in its earlier website (http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Content/Statistics/VolkswirtschaftlicheGesamtrechnungen/Inlandsprodukt/Aktuell,templateId=renderPrint.psml):

“The German economy again grew strongly in 2011. The price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.0% compared with the previous year. Accordingly, the catching-up process of the German economy continued during the second year after the economic crisis. In the course of 2011, the price-adjusted GDP again exceeded its pre-crisis level. The economic recovery occurred mainly in the first half of 2011. In 2009, Germany experienced the most serious post-war recession, when GDP suffered a historic decline of 5.1%. The year 2010 was characterised by a rapid economic recovery (+3.7%).”

Table VE-DE, Germany, GDP ∆% on Prior Year

	Price Adjusted Chain-Linked	Price- and Calendar-Adjusted Chain Linked
Average ∆% 1991-2019	1.4
Average ∆% 1991-2018	1.4
Average ∆% 1991-1999	1.4
Average ∆% 2000-2007	1.3
Average ∆% 2003-2007	2.2
Average ∆% 2007-2019	1.2
Average ∆% 2009-2018	2.1
2019	0.6	0.6
2018	1.5	1.5
2017	2.5	2.8
2016	2.2	2.1
2015	1.7	1.5
2014	2.2	2.2
2013	0.4	0.5
2012	0.4	0.6
2011	3.9	4.0
2010	4.2	4.0
2009	-5.7	-5.6
2008	1.0	0.7
2007	3.0	3.1
2006	3.8	4.0
2005	0.7	0.9
2004	1.2	0.7
2003	-0.7	-0.7
2002	-0.2	-0.2
2001	1.7	1.8
2000	2.9	3.1
1999	1.9	1.7
1998	2.0	1.8
1997	1.8	1.9
1996	0.8	0.8
1995	1.5	1.6
1994	2.4	2.5
1993	-1.0	-1.0
1992	1.9	1.5
1991	5.1	5.2
1990	5.3	5.5
1989	3.9	4.0
1988	3.7	3.4
1987	1.4	1.3
1986	2.3	2.3
1985	2.3	2.6
1984	2.8	2.9
1983	1.6	1.5
1982	-0.4	-0.5
1981	0.5	0.6
1980	1.4	1.3
1979	4.2	4.3
1978	3.0	3.1
1977	3.3	3.5
1976	4.9	4.5
1975	-0.9	-0.9
1974	0.9	1.0
1973	4.8	5.0
1972	4.3	4.3
1971	3.1	3.0
1970	NA	NA

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/02/PE20_056_811.html

The Flash Germany Composite Output Index of the IHS Markit Flash Germany PMI^®, combining manufacturing and services, decreased from 35.0 in Mar to 17.1 in Apr. The index of manufacturing output reached 19.4 in Apr, decreasing from 41.0 in Mar, while the index of services decreased to 15.9 in Apr from 31.7 in Mar. The overall Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI^® decreased from 45.4 in Mar to 34.4 in Apr (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/a9371943f5294f65877f5c3729537725). New orders decreased and new export orders decreased. Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit, finds sharply decreasing manufacturing of Germany with contracting services (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/a9371943f5294f65877f5c3729537725). The IHS Markit Germany Composite Output Index of the IHS Markit Germany Services PMI^®, combining manufacturing and services with close association with Germany’s GDP, decreased from 35.0 in Mar to 17.4 in Apr (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/8117baeec8864822829bf31bc5a1d3e9). Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit, finds contracting conditions of Germany (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/8117baeec8864822829bf31bc5a1d3e9). The Germany Services Business Activity Index decreased from 31.7 in Mar to 16.2 in Apr (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/8117baeec8864822829bf31bc5a1d3e9). The IHS Markit/BME Germany Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®), showing close association with Germany’s manufacturing conditions, decreased from 45.4 in Mar to 34.5 in Apr (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/1c7e406bc5cb48f88ee2f69cd3164f86). New export orders decreased. Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit, finds deteriorating conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/1c7e406bc5cb48f88ee2f69cd3164f86). Table DE provides the country data table for Germany.

Table DE, Germany, Economic Indicators

GDP	IVQ2019 0.0 ∆%; IVQ2019/IVQ2018 NCSA ∆% 0.3 CA 0.4 2016/2015: 2.2 CA 2.1 2017/2016: 2.5 CA 2.8 2018/2017: 1.5 CA 1.5 2019/2018: 0.6 CA 0.6 GDP ∆% 1970-2019 Blog 8/26/12 5/27/12 11/25/12 2/24/13 5/19/13 5/26/13 8/18/13 8/25/13 11/17/13 11/24/13 1/26/14 2/16/14 3/2/14 5/18/14 5/25/14 8/17/14 9/7/14 11/16/14 11/30/14 2/15/15 3/1/15 5/17/15 5/24/15 8/16/15 8/30/15 11/22/15 11/29/15 2/14/16 2/28/16 5/15/16 5/29/16 8/14/16 8/28/16 11/20/16 11/27/16 2/19/17 02/26/17 05/14/17 5/28/17 8/20/17 8/27/17 11/26/17 2/18/18 2/25/18 5/20/18 5/27/18 8/19/18 9/2/18 11/18/18 11/25/18 4/14/19 5/26/19 9/1/19 12/1/19 3/8/20
Consumer Price Index	Mar month NSA ∆%: 0.1 Mar 12-month NSA ∆%: 1.3 Blog 1/20/19 12/15/19 4/26/20
Producer Price Index	Mar month -0.8 12 months minus 0.5 Blog 3/17/19 5/10/20
Industrial Production	MFG Production Feb month CSA ∆%: -11.5 12-month NSA: NA -10.0 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Machine Orders	MFG Mar month ∆%: -15.6 Mar 12-month ∆%: -12.5 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Retail Sales	Mar Month ∆% -5.6 12-Month ∆% -2.8 Earlier Data: Blog 4/5/15
Employment Report	Unemployment Rate SA Mar 3.5% Blog 5/3/20
Trade Balance	Exports Mar 12-month NSA ∆%: -7.9 Imports Mas 12 months NSA ∆%: -4.5 Exports Mar month CSA ∆%: -11.8; Imports Mar month CSA minus 5.1 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15

Links to blog comments in Table DE: 5/10/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/05/fifty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

5/3/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/05/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

4/26/20

https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/04/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

4/5/2020 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/04/lockdown-of-economic-activity-in.html

3/29/2020 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/03/weekly-rise-of-valuations-of-risk.html

3/8/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/03/stress-of-world-financial-markets-fomc.html

3/1/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/sharp-worldwide-contraction-of.html

2/9/2020 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

1/12/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/01/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

12/29/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/diverging-economic-conditions-and.html

12/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/increase-in-valuations-of-risk_14.html

12/8/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/increase-in-valuations-of-risk.html

12/1/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

11/24/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/oscillating-risk-financial-assets-world.html

11/3/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/decrease-of-fomc-policy-rate-monetary.html

10/27/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial_26.html

10/20/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/dollar-depreciation-fluctuating.html

10/6/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/volatility-of-valuations-of-risk.html

9/29/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/dollar-appreciation-decreasing.html

9/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/competitive-exchange-rate-and-interest.html

9/8/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/increase-in-valuations-of-risk.html

9/1/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/revaluation-of-us-dollar-falling-yields.html

8/25/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/contraction-of-valuations-of-risk.html

8/18/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/global-decline-of-yields-of-government.html

8/4/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/dollar-appreciation-contraction-of.html

7/14/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/fomc-uncertain-outlook-frank-h-knights.html

7/7/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/twenty-million-unemployed-or.html

6/2/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/06/contraction-of-risk-financial-assets.html

5/26/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/05/contraction-of-risk-financial-assets.html

5/5/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

4/14/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/04/recovery-without-hiring-labor.html

1/20/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/01/world-inflation-waves-world-financial_24.html

11/25/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/11/weaker-world-economic-growth-with.html

11/18/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/11/weakening-gdp-growth-in-major-economies.html

9/2/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/09/revision-of-united-states-national.html

8/19/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/08/world-inflation-waves-lost-economic.html

5/27/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/dollar-strengthening-world-inflation.html

5/20/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/dollar-revaluation-united-states_24.html

2/25/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

2/18/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/united-states-inflation-trend-or.html

11/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/11/the-lost-economic-cycle-of-global_25.html

8/27/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/dollar-devaluation-and-interest-rate.html

5/28/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

5/14/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million_14.html

2/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

02/19/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

11/27/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/dollar-revaluation-rising-yields-and.html

11/20/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/interest-rate-increase-could-well.html

11/13/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/dollar-revaluation-and-valuations-of.html

11/6/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/the-case-for-increase-in-federal-funds.html

8/28/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/and-as-ever-economic-outlook-is.html

8/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

5/29/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/appropriate-for-fed-to-increase.html

5/15/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

2/28/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

2/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/subdued-foreign-growth-and-dollar.html

11/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/dollar-revaluation-constraining.html

11/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-liftoff-followed-by.html

08/30/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/fluctuations-of-global-financial.html

08/16/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/exchange-rate-and-financial-asset.html

5/24/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/interest-rate-policy-and-dollar.html

5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

9/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/competitive-monetary-policy-and.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

1/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/01/capital-flows-exchange-rates-and.html

11/24/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html

8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

VF France. Table VF-FR provides growth rates of GDP of France with the estimates of Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE). The long-term rate of GDP growth of France from IVQ1949 to IVQ2019 is quite high at 3.1 percent. France’s growth rates were quite high in the four decades of the 1950s, 1960, 1970s and 1980s with an average growth rate of 4.0 percent compounding the average rates in the decades and discounting to one decade. The growth impulse diminished with 2.0 percent in the 1990s and 1.8 percent from 2000 to 2007. The average growth rate from 2000 to 2019, using fourth quarter data, is 1.2 percent because of the sharp impact of the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. Cobet and Wilson (2002) provide estimates of output per hour and unit labor costs in national currency and US dollars for the US, Japan and Germany from 1950 to 2000 (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 137-44). The average yearly rate of productivity change from 1950 to 2000 was 2.9 percent in the US, 6.3 percent for Japan and 4.7 percent for Germany while unit labor costs in USD increased at 2.6 percent in the US, 4.7 percent in Japan and 4.3 percent in Germany. From 1995 to 2000, output per hour increased at the average yearly rate of 4.6 percent in the US, 3.9 percent in Japan and 2.6 percent in Germany while unit labor costs in US fell at minus 0.7 percent in the US, 4.3 percent in Japan and 7.5 percent in Germany. There was increase in productivity growth in the G7 in Japan and France in the second half of the 1990s but significantly lower than the acceleration of 1.3 percentage points per year in the US. Lucas (2011May) compares growth of the G7 economies (US, UK, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Canada) and Spain, finding that catch-up growth with earlier rates for the US and UK stalled in the 1970s.

Table VF-FR, France, Average Growth Rates of GDP Fourth Quarter, 1949-2018

Period	Average ∆%
1949-2019	3.1
2007-2019*****	0.9
2007-2018****	0.9
2007-2017***	0.8
2007-2016**	0.6
2007-2015*	0.5
2007-2014	0.4
2000-2019	1.2
2000-2018	1.2
2000-2017	1.2
2000-2016	1.1
2000-2015	1.1
2000-2014	1.1
2000-2007	1.8
1990-1999	2.0
1980-1989	2.7
1970-1979	3.7
1960-1969	5.7
1950-1959	4.2

*IVQ2007 to IVQ2015 **IVQ2007 to IVQ2016 ***IVQ2007 to IVQ2017 ****IVQ2007 to IVQ2018 *****IVQ2007 to IVQ2019

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/4463866

https://www.insee.fr/fr/information/2411675#arbo:montrerbranches=theme312

The IHS Markit Flash France Composite Output Index decreased from 28.9 in Mar to 11.2 in Apr (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/bb206898f00343d5a0bb6b66138e0f19). Eliot Kerr, Economist at IHS Markit, finds sharply contracting conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/bb206898f00343d5a0bb6b66138e0f19). The IHS Markit France Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing with close association with French GDP, decreased from 28.9 in Mar to barely above 10.0 in Apr, indicating contracting activity of the private sector (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/6971bc5c04a64c5b8171bf30a6be25bf). Eliot Kerr, Economist at IHS Markit that compiles the France Services PMI^®, finds contracting activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/6971bc5c04a64c5b8171bf30a6be25bf). The IHS Markit France Services Activity index decreased from 27.4 in Mar to 10.2 in Apr (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/6971bc5c04a64c5b8171bf30a6be25bf). The IHS Markit France Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^® decreased to 31.5 in Apr from 31.5 in Mar (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/ab8432dc1e9d4c7bbea2a37cbf935304). Eliot Kerr, Economist at IHS Markit, finds deteriorating manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/ab8432dc1e9d4c7bbea2a37cbf935304). Table FR provides the country data table for France.

Table FR, France, Economic Indicators

CPI	Mar month ∆% 0.1 12 months ∆%: 0.7 4/26/20
PPI	Mar month ∆%: -1.7 Mar 12 months ∆%: -2.7 Blog 4/5/20
GDP Growth	IVQ2019/IIIQ2019 ∆%: -0.1 IVQ2019/IVQ2018 ∆%: 0.9 Blog 3/31/13 5/19/12 6/30/13 9/29/13 11/17/13 12/29/13 2/16/14 4/6/14 5/18/14 6/29/14 8/17/14 9/28/14 11/16/14 12/28/14 2/15/15 3/29/15 5/17/15 6/28/15 8/16/15 9/27/15 11/15/15 12/27/15 1/31/16 2/28/16 3/27/16 5/1/16 6/5/16 06/26/16 8/7/16 9/4/16 9/25/16 10/30/16 12/4/16 1/1/17 2/12/17 3/5/17 3/26/17 5/7/17 6/4/17 6/25/17 8/20/17 9/3/17 11/12/17 12/10/17 12/31/17 2/11/18 3/4/18 4/1/18 5/6/18 6/3/18 6/24/18 9/2/18 11/11/18 12/9/18 12/30/18 3/10/19 3/31/19 5/5/19 6/2/19 8/11/19 9/8/19 11/3/19 3/8/20
Industrial Production	Manufacturing Mar -18.2 Quarter ∆%: -6.1 YOY -7.8 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Consumer Spending	Engineered Goods Mar ∆%: -43.1 12-Month Engineered Goods Month ∆%: -42.3 Earlier Data: Blog 4/5/15
Employment	Unemployment Rate: IVQ2019 7.9% Blog 2/16/20
Trade Balance	Mar Exports ∆%: month -16.7 12 months -18.4 Imports ∆%: month -18.5 12 months -21.2 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Confidence Indicators	Historical average 100 Feb Mfg Business Climate 102 Earlier Data: Blog 3/29/15

Links to blog comments in Table FR:

4/26/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/04/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

4/5/2020 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/04/lockdown-of-economic-activity-in.html

3/15/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/03/financial-markets-stress-in.html

3/8/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/03/stress-of-world-financial-markets-fomc.html

2/23/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/declining-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

2/16/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/recovery-without-hiring-in-lost.html

2/9/2020 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

1/19/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/01/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

12/29/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/diverging-economic-conditions-and.html

12/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/increase-in-valuations-of-risk_14.html

12/1/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

11/17/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial_16.html

11/3/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/decrease-of-fomc-policy-rate-monetary.html

10/27/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial_26.html

10/20/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/dollar-depreciation-fluctuating.html

9/29/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/dollar-appreciation-decreasing.html

9/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/competitive-exchange-rate-and-interest.html

9/8/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/increase-in-valuations-of-risk.html

8/18/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/global-decline-of-yields-of-government.html

8/11/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/competitive-exchange-rate-policies.html

7/28/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/dollar-appreciation-in-anticipations-of.html

7/14/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/fomc-uncertain-outlook-frank-h-knights.html

6/30/2019 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/06/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

6/2/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/06/contraction-of-risk-financial-assets.html

5/5/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

3/31/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/03/inverted-yield-curve-of-treasury_30.html

12/30/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/12/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

12/9/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/12/fluctuation-of-valuations-of-risk.html

11/11/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/11/oscillation-of-valuations-of-risk.html

9/2/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/09/revision-of-united-states-national.html

8/19/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/08/world-inflation-waves-lost-economic.html

7/29/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/07/revision-of-united-states-national.html

6/24/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

6/3/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/stronger-dollar-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/6/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

04/01/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_31.html

3/4/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

2/11/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/collateral-effects-of-unwinding.html

12/31/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/dollar-devaluation-cyclically.html

12/10/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

11/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/11/the-lost-economic-cycle-of-global_25.html

11/12/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/11/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

9/3/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

8/20/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

6/25/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/united-states-commercial-banks-united.html

6/4/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

5/7/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

3/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

3/5/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

2/12/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

1/1/17 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/rules-versus-discretionary-authorities.html

12/4/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/rising-yields-and-dollar-revaluation.html

10/30/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/10/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_30.html

9/25/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/the-economic-outlook-is-inherently.html

9/4/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/interest-rates-and-valuations-of-risk.html

8/7/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/global-competitive-easing-or.html

6/26/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/of-course-considerable-uncertainty.html

6/5/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/financial-turbulence-twenty-four.html

5/1/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/economic-activity-appears-to-have.html

3/27/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/contraction-of-united-states-corporate.html

2/28/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

1/31/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/closely-monitoring-global-economic-and.html

12/27/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/dollar-revaluation-and-decreasing.html

11/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-policy-conundrum-recovery.html

9/27/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/monetary-policy-designed-on-measurable.html

08/16/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/exchange-rate-and-financial-asset.html

6/28/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/international-valuations-of-financial.html

5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

9/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

12/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/collapse-of-united-states-dynamism-of.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

6/30/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/tapering-quantitative-easing-policy-and.html

5/19/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/word-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

VG Italy. Table VG-IT provides revised percentage changes of GDP in Italy of quarter on prior quarter and quarter on same quarter a year earlier. In IVQ2019, the GDP of Italy decreased 0.3 percent and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2019 and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2019, Italy’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2019 and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2018, the GDP of Italy increased 0.1 percent and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2018 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2018, the GDP of Italy changed 0.0 percent and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2018 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, the GDP of Italy increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2017 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2017, the GDP of Italy increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, the GDP of Italy increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2016, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2015, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IVQ2014 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.1 percent in IQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IVQ2013 and fell 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2013 and fell 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.8 percent in IQ2013 and declined 2.9 percent relative to IQ2013. GDP had been growing during six consecutive quarters but at very low rates from IQ2010 to IIQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell in seven consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at increasingly higher rates of contraction from 0.5 percent in IIIQ2011 to 0.9 percent in IVQ2011, 1.1 percent in IQ2012, 0.8 percent in IIQ2012 and 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012. The pace of decline accelerated to minus 0.8 percent in IVQ2012 and minus 0.8 percent in IQ2013. GDP contracted cumulatively 5.3 percent in seven consecutive quarterly contractions from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at the annual equivalent rate of minus 3.1 percent. The year-on-year rate has fallen from 2.2 percent in IVQ2010 to minus 3.2 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.9 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.2 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.5 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.9 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.3 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.5 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.2 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IIIQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.4 percent in IVQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.8 percent in IIQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IIIQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.9 percent in IVQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.3 percent in IQ2018 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.9 percent in IIQ2018 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2018 relative to a year earlier and changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2018 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2019 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2019 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIIQ2019 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2019 relative to a year earlier. Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/), the GDP of Italy in IVQ2019 of €430,058.5million (https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/239232) is lower by 5.0 percent relative to €452,802.5 million in IQ2008 (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/). Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/), the GDP of Italy increased from €392,018.4 million in IQ1998 to €452,802.5 million in IQ2008 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.5 percent. The fiscal adjustment of Italy is significantly more difficult with the economy not growing especially on the prospects of increasing government revenue. The strategy is for reforms to improve productivity, facilitating future fiscal consolidation.

Table VG-IT, Italy, GDP ∆%

	Quarter ∆% Relative to Preceding Quarter	Quarter ∆% Relative to Same Quarter Year Earlier
IVQ2019	-0.3	0.1
IIIQ2019	0.1	0.5
IIQ2019	0.1	0.4
IQ2019	0.2	0.2
IVQ2018	0.1	0.0
IIIQ2018	-0.1	0.4
IIQ2018	0.0	0.9
IQ2018	0.1	1.3
IVQ2017	0.5	1.9
IIIQ2017	0.4	1.6
IIQ2017	0.3	1.8
IQ2017	0.6	1.6
IVQ2016	0.3	1.4
IIIQ2016	0.5	1.6
IIQ2016	0.2	1.2
IQ2016	0.3	1.5
IVQ2015	0.5	1.3
IIIQ2015	0.2	0.6
IIQ2015	0.4	0.5
IQ2015	0.2	0.1
IVQ2014	-0.2	0.0
IIIQ2014	0.1	0.0
IIQ2014	0.0	0.1
IQ2014	0.1	0.1
IVQ2013	-0.2	-0.9
IIIQ2013	0.2	-1.5
IIQ2013	0.0	-2.2
IQ2013	-0.8	-2.9
IVQ2012	-0.8	-3.2
IIIQ2012	-0.5	-3.3
IIQ2012	-0.8	-3.2
IQ2012	-1.1	-2.3
IVQ2011	-0.9	-0.9
IIIQ2011	-0.5	0.6
IIQ2011	0.1	1.5
IQ2011	0.3	2.2
IVQ2010	0.6	2.2
IIIQ2010	0.5	1.9
IIQ2010	0.7	1.9
IQ2010	0.3	0.8
IVQ2009	0.3	-2.3
IIIQ2009	0.5	-5.0
IIQ2009	-0.3	-6.6
IQ2009	-2.8	-7.2
IVQ2008	-2.5	-3.5
IIIQ2008	-1.2	-1.4
IIQ2008	-0.9	0.0
IQ2008	1.0	1.0
IV2007	-0.3	0.0
IIIQ2007	0.2	1.5
IIQ2007	0.1	1.7
IQ2007	0.0	2.2

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/239232

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/

The HIS Markit Italy Composite Output Index decreased from 20.2 in Mar to 10.9 in Apr (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/68c5a01d8aa54d64aa8004d9f6c7010d).The IHS Markit Italy Business Activity Index decreased from 17.4 in Mar to 10.8 in Apr (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/68c5a01d8aa54d64aa8004d9f6c7010d). Lewis Cooper, Economist at IHS Markit that compiles the Italy Services PMI^®, finds contracting conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/68c5a01d8aa54d64aa8004d9f6c7010d). The IHS Markit Italy Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®), decreased from 40.3 in Mar to 31.1 in Apr (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/849e16ab692c48bc826ba51cfcf2e71b). New export orders decreased. Lewis Cooper, Economist at HIS Markit that compiles the Italian Manufacturing PMI^®, finds weak manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/849e16ab692c48bc826ba51cfcf2e71b). Table IT provides the country data table for Italy.

Table IT, Italy, Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index	Apr month ∆% 0.1 12 months ∆% 0.0 Blog 5/3/20
Producer Price Index	Mar month ∆%: -1.3 Mar 12-month ∆%: -4.9 Blog 4/5/20
GDP Growth	IVQ2019/IIIQ2019 SA ∆%: minus 0.3 IVQ2019/IVQ2018 NSA ∆%: 0.1 Blog 3/17/13 6/16/13 8/11/13 9/15/13 11/17/13 12/15/13 2/16/14 3/16/14 5/18/14 6/15/14 8/10/14 8/31/14 10/19/14 11/16/14 12/7/14 2/15/15 3/15/15 5/17/15 5/31/15 8/16/15 9/6/15 11/15/15 12/6/15 2/14/16 3/6/16 5/15/16 6/5/16 8/14/16 9/11/16 11/20/16 12/4/16 02/26/17 3/12/17 5/21/17 6/4/17 8/20/17 9/3/17 11/26/17 12/10/17 2/18/18 3/11/18 5/20/18 6/10/18 9/9/18 12/16/18 3/10/19 5/26/19 6/9/19 9/15/19 12/29/19 3/22/20 4/12/20
Labor Report	Mar 2020 Participation rate 64.3% Employment ratio 58.8% Unemployment rate 8.4% Youth Unemployment 28.0% Blog 5/3/20
Industrial Production	Mar month ∆%: -28.4 12 months CA ∆%: -29.3 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Retail Sales	Mar month ∆%: -20.5 Feb 12-month ∆%: -18.4 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15
Business Confidence	Mfg Jan 99.9, Sep 99.0 Construction Jan 142.7 Sep 143.2 Earlier Data: Blog 4/5/15
Trade Balance	Balance Mar SA €5348 million Exports Mar month SA ∆%: -16.8; Imports month ∆%: minus 16.8 Exports 12 months Mar NSA ∆%: -1.9 Imports 12 months NSA ∆%: -5.9 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15

Links to blog comments in Table IT: 5/3/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/05/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

4/12/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/04/united-states-imbalances-of-internal.html

4/5/2020 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/04/lockdown-of-economic-activity-in.html

3/22/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/03/sharp-contraction-of-valuations-of-risk.html

3/15/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/03/financial-markets-stress-in.html

3/8/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/03/stress-of-world-financial-markets-fomc.html

3/1/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/sharp-worldwide-contraction-of.html

2/9/2020 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

2/2/2020 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/decreasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

1/26/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/01/declining-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

1/12/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/01/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

12/29/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/diverging-economic-conditions-and.html

12/8/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/increase-in-valuations-of-risk.html

12/1/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

11/17/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial_16.html

11/3/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/decrease-of-fomc-policy-rate-monetary.html

10/20/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/dollar-depreciation-fluctuating.html

10/6/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/volatility-of-valuations-of-risk.html

9/29/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/dollar-appreciation-decreasing.html

9/22/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/uncertain-fomc-outlook-of-monetary.html

9/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/competitive-exchange-rate-and-interest.html

9/8/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/increase-in-valuations-of-risk.html

8/11/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/competitive-exchange-rate-policies.html

8/4/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/dollar-appreciation-contraction-of.html

7/21/2019 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/global-manufacturing-stress-world.html

7/7/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/twenty-million-unemployed-or.html

6/30/2019 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/06/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

6/9/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/06/increase-of-valuations-of-risk.html

5/26/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/05/contraction-of-risk-financial-assets.html

3/10/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/03/dollar-revaluation-twenty-one-million.html

12/16/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/12/slowing-world-economic-growth-and.html

9/9/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/09/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

5/20/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/dollar-revaluation-united-states_24.html

3/11/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/twenty-three-million-unemployed-or.html

2/18/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/united-states-inflation-trend-or.html

12/10/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

11/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/11/the-lost-economic-cycle-of-global_25.html

9/3/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

8/20/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

6/4/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

5/21/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/dollar-devaluation-world-inflation.html

3/12/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/increasing-interest-rates-twenty-four.html

2/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

12/4/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/rising-yields-and-dollar-revaluation.html

11/20/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/interest-rate-increase-could-well.html

9/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/interest-rate-uncertainty-and-valuation.html

8/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

6/5/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/financial-turbulence-twenty-four.html

5/15/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

3/6/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/twenty-five-million-unemployed-or.html

2/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/subdued-foreign-growth-and-dollar.html

12/6/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/liftoff-of-fed-funds-rate-followed-by.html

11/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-policy-conundrum-recovery.html

9/6/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what.html

08/16/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/exchange-rate-and-financial-asset.html

5/31/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/dollar-revaluation-squeezing-corporate.html

5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

12/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/financial-risks-twenty-six-million.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

10/19/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/imf-view-squeeze-of-economic-activity.html

8/31/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopo7litical-and-financial-risks.html

8/10/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/volatility-of-valuations-of-risk_10.html

6/15/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financialgeopolitical-risks-recovery.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

8/11/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/recovery-without-hiring-loss-of-full.html

6/16/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/recovery-without-hiring-seven-million.html

3/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

VH United Kingdom. Annual data in Table VH-UK show the strong impact of the global recession in the UK with decline of GDP of 4.2 percent in 2009 after dropping 0.3 percent in 2008. Recovery of 1.9 percent in 2010 is relatively low in comparison with annual growth rates in 2007 and earlier years. Growth was only 1.5 percent in 2011 and 1.5 percent in 2012. Growth increased to 2.1 percent in 2013 and 2.6 percent in 2014. Growth fell to 2.4 percent in 2015, and 1.9 percent in 2016.  GDP grew 1.9 percent in 2017. GDP grew 1.3 percent in 2018, growing 1.4 percent in 2019. The bottom part of Table VH-UK provides average growth rates of UK GDP since 1948. The UK economy grew at 2.5 percent per year on average between 1948 and 2019, which is relatively high for an advanced economy. The growth rate of GDP between 2000 and 2007 is higher at 2.8 percent. Growth in the current cyclical expansion from 2010 to 2019 has been only at 1.9 percent as advanced economies struggle with weak internal demand and world trade. GDP in 2019 is higher by 14.8 percent relative to 2007 while it would have been 39.3 higher at trend of 2.8 percent as from 2000 to 2007.

Table VH-UK, UK, Gross Domestic Product, ∆%

	∆% on Prior Year
1998	3.6
1999	3.4
2000	3.4
2001	3.0
2002	2.3
2003	3.3
2004	2.4
2005	3.2
2006	2.8
2007	2.4
2008	-0.3
2009	-4.2
2010	1.9
2011	1.5
2012	1.5
2013	2.1
2014	2.6
2015	2.4
2016	1.9
2017	1.9
2018	1.3
2019	1.4
Average Growth Rates ∆% per Year
1948-2019	2.5
1950-1959	3.1
1960-1969	3.1
1970-1979	2.6
1980-1989	3.2
1990-1999	2.4
2000-2007	2.8
2007-2013*	2.5
2007-2014*	5.1
2007-2015	0.9
2007-2016	1.0
2007-2017	1.1
2007-2018	1.1
2007-2019	1.2
2000-2019	1.7

*Absolute change from 2007 to 2013 and 2007 to 2014

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/januarytomarch2020

The HIS Markit Flash UK PMI^® Composite Output Index fell from 52.4 in Jun to 47.7 in Jul, which is the lowest in 87 months (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/b68c3686a48c40198505b81e4e55cd81). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds the index suggests pace of contraction of GDP at 0.4 percent in IIIQ2016 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/b68c3686a48c40198505b81e4e55cd81). The HIS Markit/CIPS Flash UK Composite PMI decreased from 36.0 in Mar 2020 to 12.9 in Apr 2020 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/0cc61064d82b43249fc9e7218dbce20b). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at HIS Markit finds that the index suggests contracting of the UK economy at close to 7 percent (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/0cc61064d82b43249fc9e7218dbce20b). The HIS Markit/CIPS UK Composite Output Index decreased from 36.0 in Mar 2020 to 13.8 in Apr 2020 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/429ff7c4e6724cf1a2e354b690c728f0). Tim Moore, Economics Director at IHS Markit, finds contracting activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/429ff7c4e6724cf1a2e354b690c728f0). The Business Activity Index of the IHS Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI^® decreased from 34.5 in Mar to 13.4 in Apr (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/429ff7c4e6724cf1a2e354b690c728f0). The IHS Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®) decreased to 32.6 in Apr from 47.8 in Mar (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/1312313a7f714426b8fdeab6d97f06bf). New export orders decreased. Rob Dobson, Director at IHS Markit that compiles the Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI^®, finds deteriorating manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/1312313a7f714426b8fdeab6d97f06bf). Table UK provides the economic indicators for the United Kingdom.

Table UK, UK Economic Indicators

CPI	Mar month ∆%: 0.0 Mar 12-month ∆%: 1.5 Blog 4/26/20
Output/Input Prices	Output Prices: Mar 12-month NSA ∆%: 0.3 excluding food, petroleum ∆%: 0.9 Input Prices: Mar 12-month NSA ∆%: minus 2.9 Excluding ∆%: 3.9 Blog 4/26/20
GDP Growth	IQ2020 prior quarter ∆% minus 2.0; year earlier same quarter ∆%: minus 1.6 Blog 3/31/13 4/28/13 5/26/13 7/28/13 8/25/13 9/29/13 10/27/13 12/1/13 12/22/13 2/2/14 3/2/14 4/6/14 5/4/14 5/25/14 6/29/14 7/27/14 8/17/14 10/5/14 10/26/14 11/30/14 12/28/14 2/1/15 3/1/15 4/5/15 5/3/15 5/31/15 7/5/15 8/2/15 9/6/15 10/4/15 11/1/15 11/29/15 12/27/15 1/31/16 2/28/16 4/3/16 5/1/16 5/29/16 7/3/16 7/31/16 9/4/16 10/9/16 10/30/16 11/27/16 1/1/17 2/5/17 2/26/17 4/9/17 5/7/2017 5/28/17 7/9/17 7/30/17 8/19/17 10/8/17 10/29/17 11/26/17 12/31/17 2/4/18 2/25/18 4/8/18 5/6/18 5/2718 7/8/18 8/19/18 10/7/18 11/18/18 12/30/18 2/17/19 4/7/19 5/19/19 7/7/19 8/18/19 10/6/19 11/17/19 1/5/20 2/23/19 4/12/20 5/17/20
Industrial Production	Mar 2020/Mar 2019 ∆%: Production Industries -8.2; Manufacturing -9.7 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Retail Sales	Jan month ∆%: 0.9 Jan 12-month ∆%: 0.8 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15
Labor Market	Dec-Feb 2020 Unemployment Rate: 4.0% Blog 4/26/20 LMGDP 5/17/15
GDP and the Labor Market	IQ2015 Employment 104.8 IQ2008 =100 GDP IQ15=104.0 IQ2008=100 Blog 5/17/14
Trade Balance UK Trade in Goods and Services	Balance Mar SA -£6,676 million Exports Mar month SA ∆%: minus 12.9; Imports month ∆%: minus 3.5 Exports 12 months Mar NSA ∆%: 4.2 Imports 12 months NSA ∆%: -1.4 EARLIER DATA: Blog 4/12/15

Links to blog comments in Table UK: 4/26/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/04/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

4/12/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/04/united-states-imbalances-of-internal.html

3/29/2020 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/03/weekly-rise-of-valuations-of-risk.html

2/23/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/declining-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

1/26/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/01/declining-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

1/5/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/01/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

12/29/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/diverging-economic-conditions-and.html

11/17/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial_16.html

11/3/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/decrease-of-fomc-policy-rate-monetary.html

10/20/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/dollar-depreciation-fluctuating.html

10/6/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/volatility-of-valuations-of-risk.html

9/22/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/uncertain-fomc-outlook-of-monetary.html

9/15/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/competitive-exchange-rate-and-interest.html

8/18/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/global-decline-of-yields-of-government.html

7/21/2019 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/global-manufacturing-stress-world.html

7/7/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/twenty-million-unemployed-or.html

5/19/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/05/decreasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

4/7/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/04/flattening-yield-curve-of-treasury.html

2/17/19 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/02/dollar-revaluation-with-increases-in.html

12/30/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/12/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

11/18/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/11/weakening-gdp-growth-in-major-economies.html

10/7/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/10/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

8/19/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/08/world-inflation-waves-lost-economic.html

7/8/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/07/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

5/27/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/dollar-strengthening-world-inflation.html

5/6/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

4/8/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/04/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

2/25/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

2/4/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/twenty-four-million-unemployed-or.html

12/31/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/dollar-devaluation-cyclically.html

11/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/11/the-lost-economic-cycle-of-global_25.html

10/29/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/dollar-revaluation-and-increase-of.html

10/8/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

8/27/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/dollar-devaluation-and-interest-rate.html

7/30/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/data-dependent-monetary-policy-with_30.html

7/9/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/rising-yields-twenty-two-million.html

5/28/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

2/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

2/5/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/twenty-six-million-unemployed-or.html

1/1/17 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/rules-versus-discretionary-authorities.html

11/27/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/dollar-revaluation-rising-yields-and.html

10/30/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/10/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_30.html

10/9/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/10/twenty-four-million-unemployed-or.html

9/4/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/interest-rates-and-valuations-of-risk.html

7/31/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/business-fixed-investment-has-been-soft.html

7/3/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/financial-asset-values-rebound-from.html

5/29/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/appropriate-for-fed-to-increase.html

5/1/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/economic-activity-appears-to-have.html

4/3/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/04/proceeding-cautiously-in-monetary.html

2/28/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

1/31/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/closely-monitoring-global-economic-and.html

12/27/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/dollar-revaluation-and-decreasing.html

11/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/dollar-revaluation-constraining.html

11/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-increase-considered.html

10/4/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/10/labor-market-uncertainty-and-interest.html

9/6/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what.html

08/02/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/turbulence-of-valuations-of-financial.html

7/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/07/turbulence-of-financial-asset.html

5/31/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/dollar-revaluation-squeezing-corporate.html

5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html

5/3/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/dollar-devaluation-and-carry-trade.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html

12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

10/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/financial-oscillations-world-inflation.html

10/5/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/world-financial-turbulence-twenty-seven.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

7/27/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

5/4/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html

4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html

3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html

2/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

12/22/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html

12/1/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/exit-risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html

10/27/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/twenty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html

9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html

7/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html

5/26/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

4/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_28.html

03/31/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

The UK Office for National Statistics provides revision of the national accounts in accordance with the European System of Accounts 2010 (ESA 2010) (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/quarterly-national-accounts/q2-2015/index.html). The UK Office for National Statistics moved the base and reference year of chained volumes from 2015 to 2016 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/januarytomarch2018). There are adjustments of the UK national accounts (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/articles/nationalaccountsarticles/previousReleases https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/januarytomarch2018). The second estimate for IIQ2019 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/apriltojune2019) incorporates changes and notice of future revision: “(This release contains data that are consistent with the UK National Accounts, The Blue Book 2019, which will be released on 31 October 2019. As such, data for all periods within this release are subject to revision in line with the National Accounts Revisions Policy.)” GDP decreased 2.0 percent in IQ2020 relative to IVQ2019 in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Growth of 1.2 percent in IIIQ2012 interrupted three consecutive quarters of weakness in GDP growth from IIQ2011 to IVQ2011. Most advanced economies are underperforming relative to the period before the global recession. The UK Office for National Statistics analyzes that the decline in the impulse of growth in the UK originated in weakness in markets in the UK and worldwide. The UK Office for National Statistics data shows that GDP in IQ2020 is higher by 11.2 percent relative to the peak in IQ2008 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/januarytomarch2020). UK GDP in chained value measures is ₤461,472 million in IQ2008 and ₤494,144 million in IVQ2015 or increase of 7.1 percent. Growth at trend of 2.8 percent per year would bring GDP to ₤571,600 million in IVQ2015. UK GDP in IVQ2015 at ₤494,144 million is lower by ₤77,456 million relative to trend at ₤571,600 million or lower by 13.6 percent compared with trend. GDP estimates of the UK Office for National Statistics measure the contraction of 6.0 percent from peak to trough (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/januarytomarch2020, which is roughly equal at 6.0 percent to compounding the quarterly rates except for rounding in Table VH-1 from IIQ2008 to IIQ2009. UK GDP is ₤461,472 million in IQ2008 declining 6.0 percent to ₤433,618 million in IIQ2009. GDP increased 14.0 percent from IIQ2009 to ₤494,144 million in IVQ2015 or at the annual equivalent rate of 2.1 percent. GDP increased 7.1 percent from IQ2008 to IVQ2015 or at the annual equivalent rate of 0.9 percent. Using the seasonally adjusted chained-value measures (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/januarytomarch2020). GDP increased from ₤461,472 million in IQ2008 to ₤513,273 million in IQ2020, or 11.2 percent at the annual equivalent rate of 0.9 percent. UK GDP in IQ2020 at ₤513,273 million is lower by ₤129,508 million relative to trend at ₤642,781 million or lower by 20.1 percent compared with trend. UK GDP increased 18.4 percent from IIQ2009 to IQ2020 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.6 percent.

Table VH-1, UK, Percentage Change of GDP from Prior Quarter, Chained Value Measures ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IV
2020	-2.0
2019	0.7	-0.2	0.5	0.0
2018	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.2
2017	0.6	0.3	0.3	0.4
2016	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.6
2015	0.5	0.7	0.4	0.7
2014	0.7	0.7	0.6	0.6
2013	0.6	0.5	0.9	0.5
2012	0.6	-0.1	1.2	-0.2
2011	0.6	0.1	0.3	0.2
2010	0.6	1.0	0.7	0.1
2009	-1.7	-0.2	0.1	0.3
2008	0.5	-0.6	-1.6	-2.1
2007	0.9	0.6	0.8	0.5
2006	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.5
2005	0.8	1.2	1.1	1.5
2004	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.3
2003	0.7	0.9	1.0	0.8
2002	0.4	0.5	0.8	0.9
2001	1.4	0.8	0.8	0.4
2000	0.8	0.6	0.3	0.2
1999	0.6	0.2	1.8	1.4
1998	0.9	0.9	0.7	1.0

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/januarytomarch2020

Chart VH-1 of the UK Office for National Statistics provides the quarterly growth rate of GDP of the United Kingdom and GDP in chained volume measures (CVM) from 2008 to 2019. GDP contracted sharply during the global recession, surpassing the pre-recession peak of IQ2008 and continuing growth in the expansion phase. There is recent deceleration in growth with contraction in IQ2020 in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.

Chart VH-1, United Kingdom, Gross Domestic Product, CVM, SA, ₤ Billion, Percentage Change on Prior Quarter

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/januarytomarch2020

There are four periods in Table VH-2 in growth of GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier in the UK in the years from 1998 to the present. (1) Growth rates were quite high from 2000 to 2007. (2) There were six consecutive quarters of contraction of GDP from IIIQ2008 to IVQ2009. Contractions relative to the quarter a year earlier were quite sharp with the highest of 3.6 percent in IVQ2008, 5.8 percent in IQ2009, 5.5 percent in IIQ2009 and 3.9 percent in IIIQ2009. (3) The economy bounced strongly with 2.0 percent in IIQ2010, 2.6 percent in IIIQ2010 and 2.4 percent in IVQ2010. (4) Recovery did not continue at rates comparable to those in 2000 to 2007 and even relative to those in the final three quarters of 2010. Growth relative to the same quarter a year earlier fell from 2.4 percent in IVQ2010 to 1.5 percent in IIQ2011, 1.1 percent in IIIQ2011, 1.2 percent in IVQ2011 but only 1.2 percent in IQ2012, increase of 1.1 percent in IIQ2012 relative to IIQ2011, increase of 2.0 percent in IIIQ2012 and 1.6 percent in IVQ2012. In IQ2012, UK GDP increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, GDP fell 0.1 percent relative to IQ2012 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, GDP increased 1.2 percent and increased 2.0 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier. In IVQ2012, GDP fell 0.2 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Fiscal consolidation in an environment of weakening economic growth is much more challenging. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 0.6 percent in IQ2013 relative to IVQ2012. In IIQ2013, GDP increased 0.5 percent and 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.9 percent in IIIQ2013 and 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2013 and 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, GDP increased 0.7 percent and 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2014 and 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2014 and 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, GDP increased 0.6 percent and 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2015 and increased 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2016 and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2016 and grew 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IVQ2016 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2017 and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2017 and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, GDP increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2017 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2018 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, GDP increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2018 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, GDP increased 0.7 percent and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IIQ2019 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, GDP increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2019 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2020, GDP decreased 2.0 percent and decreased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier.

Table VH-2, UK, Percentage Change of GDP from Same Quarter a Year Earlier, Chained Value Measures ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IVQ
2020	-1.6
2019	2.0	1.3	1.3	1.1
2018	1.1	1.3	1.6	1.4
2017	2.2	1.9	1.8	1.6
2016	2.1	1.9	1.9	1.8
2015	2.3	2.4	2.2	2.4
2014	2.7	2.8	2.4	2.5
2013	1.6	2.3	2.0	2.7
2012	1.2	1.1	2.0	1.6
2011	2.4	1.5	1.1	1.2
2010	0.8	2.0	2.6	2.4
2009	-5.8	-5.5	-3.9	-1.6
2008	2.4	1.2	-1.1	-3.6
2007	1.8	2.2	2.9	2.8
2006	4.3	3.3	2.3	1.3
2005	1.7	2.6	3.6	4.8
2004	3.4	2.8	1.9	1.4
2003	2.8	3.3	3.5	3.5
2002	2.5	2.1	2.1	2.6
2001	2.4	2.7	3.3	3.5
2000	4.3	4.7	3.1	1.8
1999	3.2	2.6	3.7	4.2
1998	3.7	3.7	3.7	3.5

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/januarytomarch2020

Table VH-3 provides annual percentage changes of gross value added and key components. Production fell 7.7 percent in 2009 and its most important component manufacturing fell 8.6 percent. Services fell 2.7 percent in 2009. Services grew in all years from 2010 to 2019 while manufacturing fell 1.1 percent in 2012 and fell 1.1 percent in 2013. Manufacturing resumed growth with 2.9 percent in 2014 followed by decrease of 0.1 percent in 2015. Manufacturing increased 0.2 percent in 2016 and increased 2.2 percent in 2017. Manufacturing increased 0.9 percent in 2018. Manufacturing decreased 1.7 percent in 2019.

Table VH-3, UK, Gross Value Added by Components, ∆% on Prior Year

	TP	MFG	CONS	SERV	GVA BP	GVA EX
2016 Weights	136	102	61	796	1000	995
2019	-1.4	-1.7	2.3	1.8	1.4	1.4
2018	0.8	0.9	0	2	1.3	1.3
2017	1.7	2.2	6.4	1.7	2	2
2016	1.1	0.2	3.9	2	1.9	1.9
2015	1	-0.1	4	2.2	2.2	2.1
2014	1.6	2.9	10	2.1	2.6	2.6
2013	-1	-1.1	1.7	2.9	2.2	2.2
2012	-2.3	-1.1	-7.3	2.9	1.5	1.6
2011	-0.1	2.3	1.4	2.1	1.8	2
2010	3.4	4.6	8.5	1.6	2.2	2.3
2009	-7.7	-8.6	-13.2	-2.7	-4.2	-4.1
2008	-2.5	-2.8	-2.6	0.5	-0.1	-0.1
2007	0.7	0.5	2.2	2.9	2.4	2.5
2006	1.1	2.4	0.8	3.2	2.7	2.8
2005	-0.5	0.1	-2.4	4.9	3.6	3.8
2004	0.9	1.8	5.3	2.6	2.5	2.6
2003	-0.4	-0.4	4.8	4.2	3.3	3.4
2002	-1.5	-2.4	5.7	2.9	2.3	2.4
2001	-1.5	-1.4	1.8	4.3	2.9	3.1
2000	1.7	1.8	0.9	4.7	3.8	3.9
1999	1.1	0.3	1.3	4.2	3.5	3.4
1998	0.8	0.2	1.5	4.2	3.4	3.4

Note: TP: Total Production; MFG: Manufacturing; CONS: Construction; SERV: Services; GVA BP: Gross Value Added at Basic Prices; GVA EX: Gross Value Added excluding Oil and Gas

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/januarytomarch2020

Table VH-4 shows for IQ2020 that gross valued at basic prices decreased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier while gross value added with exclusions decreased 1.6 percent. Total production decreased 4.9 percent and manufacturing decreased 6.0 percent. Services decreased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The UK economy contracted in IQ2020 with the worldwide lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.

Table VH-4, UK, Gross Value Added by Components, ∆% on Same Quarter of Prior Year

	TP	MFG	CONS	SERV	GVA BP	GVA EX
2016 Weights	136	102	61	796	1000	995
2020 Q1	-4.9	-6	-3	-1	-1.6	-1.6
2019 Q4	-2.1	-2.7	1.7	1.4	1.1	1.1
2019 Q3	-2.2	-2.5	1.7	1.7	1.3	1.3
2019 Q2	-1.6	-2.1	1.9	1.8	1.3	1.3
2019 Q1	0.1	0.5	4	2.3	2	2
2018 Q4	-0.9	-1.4	0	2.4	1.4	1.5
2018 Q3	1.1	1	0.8	2.2	1.5	1.5
2018 Q2	1.4	1.8	-0.2	1.9	1.3	1.3
2018 Q1	1.5	2.1	-0.7	1.4	1	1
2017 Q4	2.3	3.3	5.4	1.2	1.6	1.6
2017 Q3	2	2.6	5.9	1.5	1.9	1.9
2017 Q2	0.2	0.6	6.5	2.1	2.1	2.1
2017 Q1	2.5	2.4	8	1.8	2.3	2.3
2016 Q4	2.1	1.4	4.8	1.8	2	2
2016 Q3	1	0.2	5	2	2	2
2016 Q2	1.4	0.6	3.4	1.8	1.8	1.8
2016 Q1	0.1	-1.4	2.6	2.3	2	1.9
2015 Q4	0.3	-1.3	2.7	2.5	2.1	2.1
2015 Q3	0.8	-0.8	1.8	2.2	2	1.9
2015 Q2	1.7	0.4	4.8	2.1	2.2	2.2
2015 Q1	1.2	1.4	6.8	2.2	2.3	2.4
2014 Q4	1.1	2.6	8.9	2.4	2.7	2.7
2014 Q3	1.5	2.9	9.6	2	2.4	2.5
2014 Q2	1.8	3.1	11.3	2.1	2.7	2.7
2014 Q1	1.9	2.9	10.2	1.9	2.4	2.4
2013 Q4	1.3	0.9	5.9	2.4	2.4	2.4
2013 Q3	-1	-0.9	5.4	2.3	2	2
2013 Q2	-1.6	-1.3	0.2	3.5	2.5	2.6
2013 Q1	-2.8	-3.1	-4.4	3.3	1.9	2
2012 Q4	-3.1	-2.1	-7.8	3.5	1.8	1.9
2012 Q3	-1.8	-0.8	-8.5	3.7	2.1	2.2
2012 Q2	-2.2	-1.7	-8.1	2.3	0.9	1
2012 Q1	-2.2	0	-5.1	2.2	1.1	1.2
2011 Q4	-2	0.4	0.9	1.7	1.2	1.3
2011 Q3	-0.3	1.5	-1.9	1.7	1.2	1.4
2011 Q2	0.1	3	1.1	2.2	1.9	2.1
2011 Q1	2	4.6	5.8	2.9	3	3.1
2010 Q4	4	5.2	9	2.3	2.9	3
2010 Q3	3.6	6	10.6	2.3	3	3
2010 Q2	3.2	4.3	10.5	1.5	2.2	2.3
2010 Q1	2.8	2.8	4	0.2	0.7	0.8
2009 Q4	-3.2	-3.6	-7.8	-0.8	-1.6	-1.6
2009 Q3	-8.1	-9	-12.2	-2.2	-3.8	-3.8
2009 Q2	-8.9	-9.9	-16.2	-3.8	-5.4	-5.4
2009 Q1	-10.3	-11.6	-16.1	-3.9	-5.7	-5.7
2008 Q4	-6.6	-6.9	-8.7	-2.6	-3.6	-3.5
2008 Q3	-2	-2.8	-1.7	-0.7	-0.9	-0.9
2008 Q2	-1.2	-1.6	-0.4	1.9	1.3	1.4
2008 Q1	-0.1	0	0.3	3.5	2.8	2.8
2007 Q4	0.7	-0.4	0.5	4.1	3.3	3.3
2007 Q3	0.4	-0.1	1.1	3.5	2.8	2.9
2007 Q2	0.9	0.7	3	2.3	2.1	2.1
2007 Q1	0.6	1.8	4.2	1.5	1.5	1.6
2006 Q4	1.2	3.2	3.9	0.5	0.8	0.9
2006 Q3	1.5	2.9	1.8	2.3	2.1	2.2
2006 Q2	0.2	1.8	-0.6	4.4	3.3	3.5
2006 Q1	1.3	1.6	-1.9	5.8	4.5	4.6
2005 Q4	-0.5	-0.2	-2.3	6.8	5.1	5.3
2005 Q3	0.1	1.1	-3	5.3	4	4.2
2005 Q2	-0.5	0.2	-1.7	4.2	3.1	3.2
2005 Q1	-1	-0.6	-2.7	3.3	2.2	2.4
2004 Q4	0	1	-0.2	2.5	1.9	2
2004 Q3	-0.3	0.6	3.5	2.5	2	2.2
2004 Q2	2.3	2.8	6.8	2.6	2.7	2.8
2004 Q1	1.6	3	11.7	3	3.2	3.4
2003 Q4	1	1.9	5.7	3.9	3.5	3.7
2003 Q3	-0.2	-0.7	4.5	4.5	3.6	3.7
2003 Q2	-1	-0.6	5.5	4.2	3.3	3.5
2003 Q1	-1.3	-2.3	3.5	4	2.9	3
2002 Q4	-0.6	-1.8	6.9	2.8	2.5	2.5
2002 Q3	-1.4	-1.9	7.4	2.6	2.2	2.4
2002 Q2	-1.7	-2.9	3.4	2.8	2.1	2.1
2002 Q1	-2.2	-3.1	5.2	3.3	2.5	2.5
2001 Q4	-3.2	-3.8	3.8	5.3	3.4	3.6
2001 Q3	-1.3	-1.1	3.7	4.4	3.1	3.3
2001 Q2	-1.4	-1.3	1.6	3.9	2.6	2.8
2001 Q1	-0.1	0.6	-1.9	3.5	2.4	2.6
2000 Q4	0.4	1.3	0	2.5	1.9	2.2
2000 Q3	0.5	0.5	-1.9	4.6	3.4	3.5
2000 Q2	2.9	2.7	2.1	6.3	5.3	5.3
2000 Q1	3.1	2.7	3.4	5.4	4.8	4.7
1999 Q4	3.1	2.4	2.1	4.8	4.3	4.2
1999 Q3	2.4	1.5	3.2	3.9	3.6	3.5
1999 Q2	-0.3	-0.9	1.3	3.2	2.5	2.4
1999 Q1	-0.9	-1.6	-1.5	4.9	3.4	3.4
1998 Q4	-0.1	-1	0	5	3.6	3.7
1998 Q3	0.5	0.2	1.3	4.8	3.7	3.7
1998 Q2	1.6	0.9	0.1	3.9	3.2	3.2
1998 Q1	1.2	0.9	4.7	3.3	2.9	3.1

Note: TP: Total Production; MFG: Manufacturing; CONS: Construction; SERV: Services; GVA BP: Gross Value Added at Basic Prices; GVA EX: Gross Value Added excluding Oil and Gas

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk

Table VH-5 provides contributions to value added by expenditure components in a quarter relative to the prior quarter. Household final consumption added 0.09 percentage points in IQ2019 and contributed 0.34 percentage points in IIQ2019. Household final consumption added 0.16 percentage points in IIIQ2019. Household final consumption deducted 0.03 percentage points in IVQ2019. Household final consumption deducted 1.10 percentage points in IQ2010 in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Net trade deducted 2.49 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2019, contributing 2.71 percentage points in IIQ2019. Net trade added 1.36 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade added 1.48 percentage points in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 1.91 percentage points in IQ2020. Gross fixed capital formation added 0.17 percentage points in IQ2019 and subtracted 0.09 percentage points in IIQ2019. Gross fixed capital formation added 0.08 percentage points in IIIQ2019. GFCF deducted 0.20 percentage points in IVQ2019. GFCF deducted 0.18 percentage points in IQ2020.

Table VH-5, UK, Contribution to Quarter on Prior Quarter of Growth of Value Added by Expenditure Components, %

	IQ2019	IIQ2019	IIIQ2019	IVQ2019	IQ2020
HFC	0.09	0.34	0.16	-0.03	-1.10
NPISH	0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.02
GOVT	0.20	0.21	-0.01	0.27	-0.50
GCF	3.20	-3.28	-0.96	-1.72	1.50
GFCF	0.17	-0.09	0.08	-0.20	-0.18
BI	0.10	0.05	0.07	-0.05	0.00
Exports	0.56	-1.07	2.09	1.61	-3.60
Less Imports	3.04	-3.78	0.74	0.13	-1.69
Net Trade	-2.49	2.71	1.36	1.48	-1.91

Components may not add because of rounding

HFC: Household Final Consumption; NPISH: NPISH Final Consumption; GOVT: General Government; GCF: Gross Capital Formation; GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation; BINV: Business Investment; EXP: Exports; IMP: Less Imports

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/januarytomarch2020

Contributions of value added by expenditure components in a year relative to the prior year are in Table VH-6. Household final consumption added 1.4 percentage points in 2014 and 1.7 percentage points in 2015. Household final consumption added 2.39 percentage points 2016. Household final consumption contributed 1.44 percentage points in 2017. Household final consumption contributed 1.02 percentage points in 2018. Household final consumption added 0.72 percentage points in 2019. Gross capital formation contributed 1.8 percentage points in 2014 and 0.8 percentage points in 2015. Gross capital formation deducted 0.10 percentage points in 2016. Gross capital formation deducted 0.29 percentage points in 2017. Gross capital formation contributed 0.25 percentage points in 2018. Gross capital formation added 0.27 percentage points in 2019. GFCF added 1.1 percentage points in 2014 and 0.6 percentage points in 2015. GFCF added 0.62 percentage points in 2016. GFCF contributed 0.28 percentage points in 2017. GFCF deducted 0.04 percentage points in 2018. GFCF added 0.10 percentage points in 2019. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points in 2014 and subtracted 0.4 percentage points in 2015. Net trade deducted 0.52 percentage points in 2016. Net trade contributed 0.68 percentage points in 2017. Net trade deducted 0.26 percentage points in 2018. Net traded contributed 0.02 percentage points in 2019.

Table VH-6, UK, Contribution to Growth on Prior Year of Value Added by Expenditure Components, %

	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
HFC	1.4	1.7	2.39	1.44	1.02	0.72
NPISH	0.0	0.0	-0.04	0.00	0.00	-0.02
GOVT	0.5	0.3	0.19	0.05	0.08	0.65
GCF	1.8	0.8	-0.10	-0.29	0.25	0.27
GFCF	1.1	0.6	0.62	0.28	-0.04	0.10
BINV	0.5	0.4	0.41	0.29	-0.15	0.06
Exports	0.8	1.3	0.76	1.74	0.37	1.48
Less Imports	1.4	1.6	1.28	1.05	0.63	1.46
Net Trade	-0.6	-0.4	-0.52	0.68	-0.26	0.02

HFC: Household Final Consumption; NPISH: NPISH Final Consumption; GOVT: General Government; GCF: Gross Capital Formation; GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation; BINV: Business Investment; EXP: Exports; IMP: Less Imports

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/januarytomarch2020

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020.