CMP Associates Regulation Blog: Twenty-One Million Unemployed or Underemployed in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth Underperforming Below Trend Worldwide, Cyclically Stagnating Real Wages, Job Creation, Cyclically Stagnating Real Disposable Income per Capita, Financial Repression, World Financial Turbulence, World Cyclical Slow Growth, Government Intervention in Globalization, and Global Recession Risk: Part V

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Twenty-One Million Unemployed or Underemployed in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth Underperforming Below Trend Worldwide, Cyclically Stagnating Real Wages, Job Creation, Cyclically Stagnating Real Disposable Income per Capita, Financial Repression, World Financial Turbulence, World Cyclical Slow Growth, Government Intervention in Globalization, and Global Recession Risk

I Twenty-One Million Unemployed or Underemployed

IA1 Summary of the Employment Situation

IA2 Number of People in Job Stress

IA3 Long-term and Cyclical Comparison of Employment

IA4 Job Creation

IB Stagnating Real Wages

II Stagnating Real Disposable Income and Consumption Expenditures

IIB1 Stagnating Real Disposable Income and Consumption Expenditures

IB2 Financial Repression

III World Financial Turbulence

IV Global Inflation

V World Economic Slowdown

VA United States

VB Japan

VC China

VD Euro Area

VE Germany

VF France

VG Italy

VH United Kingdom

VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets

VII Economic Indicators

VIII Interest Rates

IX Conclusion

References

Appendixes

Appendix I The Great Inflation

IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies

IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact

IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort

IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis

V World Economic Slowdown. Table V-1 is constructed with the database of the IMF (http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29) to show GDP in dollars in 2016 and the growth rate of real GDP of the world and selected regional countries from 2016 to 2019. The data illustrate the concept often repeated of “two-speed recovery” of the world economy from the recession of 2007 to 2009. The IMF has changed its forecast of the world economy to 3.7 percent in 2017 but accelerating to 3.9 percent in 2018 and 3.9 percent in 2019. Slow-speed recovery occurs in the “major advanced economies” of the G7 that account for $35,576 billion of world output of $75,485 billion, or 47.1 percent, but are projected to grow at much lower rates than world output, 2.0 percent on average from 2016 to 2019, in contrast with 3.7 percent for the world as a whole. While the world would grow 15.5 percent in the four years from 2016 to 2019, the G7 as a whole would grow 8.2 percent. The difference in dollars of 2016 is high: growing by 15.5 percent would add around $11.7 trillion of output to the world economy, or roughly, over two times the output of the economy of Japan of $4,949 billion but growing by 8.2 percent would add $6.2 trillion of output to the world, or somewhat higher than the output of Japan in 2016. The “two speed” concept is in reference to the growth of the 150 countries labeled as emerging and developing economies (EMDE) with joint output in 2016 of $29,206 billion, or 38.7 percent of world output. The EMDEs would grow cumulatively 20.6 percent or at the average yearly rate of 4.8 percent, contributing $6.0 trillion from 2016 to 2019 or the equivalent of somewhat more than one half the GDP of $11,222 billion of China in 2016. The final four countries in Table I-1 often referred as BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China), are large, rapidly growing emerging economies. Their combined output in 2016 adds to $16,570 billion, or 22.0 percent of world output, which is equivalent to 46.6 percent of the combined output of the major advanced economies of the G7.

Table I-1, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Real GDP Growth

	GDP USD Billions 2016	Real GDP ∆% 2016	Real GDP ∆% 2017	Real GDP ∆% 2018	Real GDP ∆% 2019
World	75,485	3.2	3.7	3.9	3.9
G7	35,576	1.4	2.1	2.4	2.1
Canada	1,536	1.4	3.0	2.1	2.0
France	2,466	1.2	1.8	2.0	2.0
DE	3,479	1.9	2.5	2.5	2.0
Italy	1,860	0.9	1.5	1.5	1.1
Japan	4,949	0.9	1.7	1.2	0.9
UK	2,661	1.9	1.8	1.6	1.5
US	18,624	1.5	2.3	2.9	2.7
Euro Area	11,940	1.8	2.3	2.4	2.0
DE	3,479	1.9	2.5	2.5	2.0
France	2,466	1.2	1.8	2.0	2.0
Italy	1,860	0.9	1.5	1.5	1.1
POT	205	1.6	2.7	2.4	1.8
Ireland	304	5.1	7.8	4.5	4.0
Greece	193	-0.2	1.4	2.0	1.8
Spain	1,238	3.3	3.1	2.8	2.2
EMDE	29,206	4.4	4.8	4.9	5.1
Brazil	1,793	-3.5	1.0	2.3	2.5
Russia	1,281	-0.2	1.5	1.7	1.5
India	2,274	7.1	6.7	7.4	7.8
China	11,222	6.7	6.9	6.6	6.4

Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries); POT: Portugal

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook databank

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2018/01/weodata/index.aspx

Continuing high rates of unemployment in advanced economies constitute another characteristic of the database of the WEO (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2018/01/weodata/index.aspx). Table V-2 is constructed with the WEO database to provide rates of unemployment from 2015 to 2019 for major countries and regions. In fact, unemployment rates for 2015 in Table I-2 are high for all countries: unusually high for countries with high rates most of the time and unusually high for countries with low rates most of the time. The rates of unemployment are particularly high in 2015 for the countries with sovereign debt difficulties in Europe: 12.4 percent for Portugal (POT), 9.5 percent for Ireland, 24.9 percent for Greece, 22.1 percent for Spain and 11.9 percent for Italy, which is lower but still high. The G7 rate of unemployment is 5.8 percent. Unemployment rates are not likely to decrease substantially if slow growth persists in advanced economies.

Table V-2, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Unemployment Rate as Percent of Labor Force

	% Labor Force 2015	% Labor Force 2016	% Labor Force 2017	% Labor Force 2018	% Labor Force 2019
World	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
G7	5.8	5.4	5.0	4.7	4.5
Canada	6.9	7.0	6.3	6.2	6.2
France	10.4	10.0	9.4	8.8	8.4
DE	4.6	4.2	3.8	3.6	3.5
Italy	11.9	11.7	11.3	10.9	10.6
Japan	3.4	3.1	2.9	2.9	2.9
UK	5.4	4.9	4.4	4.4	4.5
US	5.3	4.9	4.4	3.9	3.5
Euro Area	10.9	10.0	9.1	8.4	8.1
DE	4.6	4.2	3.8	3.6	3.5
France	10.4	10.0	9.4	8.8	8.4
Italy	11.9	11.7	11.3	10.9	10.6
POT	12.4	11.1	8.9	7.3	6.7
Ireland	9.5	8.4	6.7	5.5	5.2
Greece	24.9	23.6	21.5	19.8	18.0
Spain	22.1	19.6	17.2	15.5	14.8
EMDE	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
Brazil	8.3	11.3	12.8	11.6	10.5
Russia	5.6	5.5	5.2	5.5	5.5
India	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
China	4.1	4.0	3.9	4.0	4.0

Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries)

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2018/01/weodata/index.aspx

There are references to adverse periods as “lost decades.” There is a more prolonged and adverse period in Table V-3A: the lost economic cycle of the Global Recession with economic growth underperforming below trend worldwide. Economic contractions were relatively high but not comparable to the decline of GDP during the Great Depression. In fact, during the Great Depression in the four years of 1930 to 1933, US GDP in constant dollars fell 26.4 percent cumulatively and fell 45.3 percent in current dollars (Pelaez and Pelaez, Financial Regulation after the Global Recession (2009a), 150-2, Pelaez and Pelaez, Globalization and the State, Vol. II (2009b), 205-7 and revisions in http://bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). Data are available for the 1930s only on a yearly basis. The contraction of GDP in the current cycle of the Global Recession was much lower, 4.2 percent (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/stronger-dollar-mediocre-cyclical.html). Contractions were deeper in Japan, 8.7 percent, the euro area (19 members), 5.8 percent, Germany, 6.9 percent and the UK 6.3 percent. The contraction in France was 4.0 percent. There is adversity in low rates of growth during the expansion that did not compensate for the contraction such that for the whole cycle performance is disappointingly low. As a result, GDP is substantially below what it would have been in trend growth in all countries and regions in the world. Long-term economic performance in the United States consisted of trend growth of GDP at 3 percent per year and of per capita GDP at 2 percent per year as measured for 1870 to 2010 by Robert E Lucas (2011May). The economy returned to trend growth after adverse events such as wars and recessions. The key characteristic of adversities such as recessions was much higher rates of growth in expansion periods that permitted the economy to recover output, income and employment losses that occurred during the contractions. Over the business cycle, the economy compensated the losses of contractions with higher growth in expansions to maintain trend growth of GDP of 3 percent and of GDP per capita of 2 percent. The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. US economic growth has been at only 2.2 percent on average in the cyclical expansion in the 35 quarters from IIIQ2009 to IQ2018. Boskin (2010Sep) measures that the US economy grew at 6.2 percent in the first four quarters and 4.5 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the second quarter of 1975; and at 7.7 percent in the first four quarters and 5.8 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the first quarter of 1983 (Professor Michael J. Boskin, Summer of Discontent, Wall Street Journal, Sep 2, 2010 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882304575465462926649950.html). There are new calculations using the revision of US GDP and personal income data since 1929 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (http://bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) and the third estimate of GDP for IQ2018 (https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2018/pdf/gdp1q18_3rd.pdf). The average of 7.7 percent in the first four quarters of major cyclical expansions is in contrast with the rate of growth in the first four quarters of the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010 of only 2.7 percent obtained by dividing GDP of $14,745.9 billion in IIQ2010 by GDP of $14,355.6 billion in IIQ2009 {[($14,745.9/$14,355.6) -1]100 = 2.7%], or accumulating the quarter on quarter growth rates (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/stronger-dollar-mediocre-cyclical.html). The expansion from IQ1983 to IVQ1985 was at the average annual growth rate of 5.9 percent, 5.4 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1986, 5.2 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1986, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1989, 4.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1989, 4.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1989, 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1989. 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1990, 4.4 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1990, 4.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1990, 4.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1990, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1991 and at 7.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/stronger-dollar-mediocre-cyclical.html). The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dates a contraction of the US from IQ1990 (Jul) to IQ1991 (Mar) (http://www.nber.org/cycles.html). The expansion lasted until another contraction beginning in IQ2001 (Mar). US GDP contracted 1.3 percent from the pre-recession peak of $8983.9 billion of chained 2009 dollars in IIIQ1990 to the trough of $8865.6 billion in IQ1991 (http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IQ2018 would have accumulated to 35.4 percent. GDP in IQ2018 would be $20,298.9 billion (in constant dollars of 2009) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $2927.0 billion than actual $17,371.9 billion. There are about two trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 20.6 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 12.1 percent of the effective labor force (Section I and earlier (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html). US GDP in IQ2018 is 14.4 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $14,991.8 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $17,371.9 billion in IQ2018 or 15.9 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.4 percent. Professor John H. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. Cochrane (2016May02) measures GDP growth in the US at average 3.5 percent per year from 1950 to 2000 and only at 1.76 percent per year from 2000 to 2015 with only at 2.0 percent annual equivalent in the current expansion. Cochrane (2016May02) proposes drastic changes in regulation and legal obstacles to private economic activity. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 3.2 percent per year from May 1919 to May 2018. Growth at 3.2 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output from 108.3221 in Dec 2007 to 150.3883 in May 2018. The actual index NSA in May 2018 is 103.9274, which is 30.9 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 1.9 percent between Dec 1986 and May 2018. Using trend growth of 1.9 percent per year, the index would increase to 131.7847 in May 2018. The output of manufacturing at 103.9274 in May 2018 is 21.1 percent below trend under this alternative calculation.

Table V-3A, Cycle 2007-2018, Percentage Contraction, Average Growth Rate in Expansion, Average Growth Rate in Whole Cycle and GDP Percent Below Trend

	Contraction ∆%	Expansion AV ∆%	Whole Cycle AV ∆%	Below Trend Percent
USA	4.2	2.2	1.5	14.4
Japan	8.7	1.6	0.5	NA
Euro Area (19)	5.8	1.4	0.6	15.3
France	4.0	1.3	0.7	10.0
Germany	6.9	2.1	1.1	NA
UK	6.3	1.9	1.0	16.2

Note: AV: Average. Expansion and Whole Cycle AV ∆% calculated with quarterly growth, seasonally adjusted and quarterly adjusted when applicable, rates and converted into annual equivalent.

Data reported periodically in this blog.

Source: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.census.gov/aboutus/stat_int.html

Table V-3 provides the latest available estimates of GDP for the regions and countries followed in this blog from IQ2012 to IVQ2016 available now for all countries. There are estimates for all countries for IQ2017, IIQ2017 and IIIQ2017. There are estimates for IVQ2017 and preliminary estimates for IQ2018. Growth is weak throughout most of the world.

· Japan. The GDP of Japan increased 1.2 percent in IQ2012, 4.8 percent at SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) and 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier but part of the jump could be the low level a year earlier because of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan is experiencing difficulties with the overvalued yen because of worldwide capital flight originating in zero interest rates with risk aversion in an environment of softer growth of world trade. Japan’s GDP fell 0.7 percent in IIQ2012 at the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of minus 2.6 percent, which is much lower than 4.8 percent in IQ2012. Growth of 2.9 percent in IIQ2012 in Japan relative to IIQ2011 has effects of the low level of output because of Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IIIQ2012 at the SAAR of minus 1.6 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2012 at the SAAR of 0.9 percent and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan grew 1.2 percent in IQ2013 at the SAAR of 4.9 percent and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2013 at the SAAR of 3.4 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP grew 0.8 percent in IIIQ2013 at the SAAR of 3.1 percent and increased 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Japan’s GDP changed 0.0 percent at the SAAR of minus 0.1 percent, increasing 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 1.0 percent in IQ2014 at the SAAR of 4.0 percent and increased 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Japan’s GDP fell 1.8 percent at the SAAR of minus 7.1 percent and fell 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2014 at the SAAR of minus 0.2 percent and fell 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, Japan’s GDP grew 0.6 percent, at the SAAR of 2.5 percent, decreasing 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 1.5 percent in IQ2015 at the SAAR of 6.1 percent and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IIQ2015 at the SAAR of minus 0.3 percent and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2015 at the SAAR of 0.3 percent and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.3 percent in IVQ2015 at the SAAR of minus 1.2 percent and grew 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, the GDP of Japan increased 0.8 percent at the SAAR of 3.4 percent and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2016 at the SAAR of 0.9 percent and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of Japan increased 0.2 percent at the SAAR of 0.8 percent and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2016 at the SAAR of 1.0 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, the GDP of Japan increased 0.7 percent at the SAAR of 2.7 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2017 at the SAAR of 2.1 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, the GDP of Japan increased 0.5 percent at the SAAR of 2.0 percent and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2017, at the SAAR of 1.0 percent, and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, the GDP of Japan decreased 0.2 percent, at the SAAR of minus 0.6 percent and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier.

· Euro Area. GDP fell 0.1 percent in the euro area in IQ2012 and decreased 0.4 in IQ2012 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP contracted 0.3 percent IIQ2012 and fell 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.1 percent and declined 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.4 percent relative to the prior quarter and fell 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, the GDP of the euro area fell 0.3 percent and decreased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2013, euro area GDP increased 0.4 percent and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2013 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The euro area’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 0.8 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The euro area’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2016 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, euro are GDP increased 0.7 percent and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2017 and increased 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.7 percent and grew 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area grew 0.7 percent in IVQ2017 and increased 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent and grew 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier.

· United States. Growth of US GDP in IQ2012 was 0.7 percent, at SAAR of 2.7 percent and higher by 2.8 percent relative to IQ2011. US GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2012, 1.9 percent at SAAR and 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, US GDP grew 0.1 percent, 0.5 percent at SAAR and 2.4 percent relative to IIIQ2011. In IVQ2012, US GDP grew 0.0 percent, 0.1 percent at SAAR and 1.3 percent relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, US GDP grew at 2.8 percent SAAR, 0.7 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.3 percent relative to the same quarter in 2012. In IIQ2013, US GDP grew at 0.8 percent in SAAR, 0.2 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.0 percent relative to IIQ2012. US GDP grew at 3.1 percent in SAAR in IIIQ2013, 0.8 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.7 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/stronger-dollar-mediocre-cyclical.html). In IVQ2013, US GDP grew 1.0 percent at 4.0 percent SAAR and 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, US GDP decreased 0.2 percent, increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier and fell 0.9 percent at SAAR. In IIQ2014, US GDP increased 1.1 percent at 4.6 percent SAAR and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP increased 1.3 percent in IIIQ2014 at 5.2 percent SAAR and increased 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, US GDP increased 0.5 percent at SAAR of 2.0 percent and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IQ2015 at SAAR of 3.2 percent and grew 3.8 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR 2.7 percent in IIQ2015, increasing 0.7 percent in the quarter and 3.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 at SAAR of 1.6 percent and grew 2.4 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 0.5 percent in IVQ2015, increasing 0.1 percent in the quarter and 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, US GDP grew 0.1 percent at SAAR of 0.6 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.2 percent in IIQ2016, increasing 0.6 percent in the quarter and 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, US GDP grew 0.7 percent at SAAR of 2.8 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 1.8 percent in IVQ2016, increasing 0.4 percent in the quarter, and increasing 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, US GDP grew 0.3 percent at SAAR of 1.2 percent and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 3.1 percent in IIQ2017, increasing 0.8 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, US GDP grew 0.8 percent at SAAR of 3.2 percent and increased 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.9 percent in IVQ2017, increasing 0.7 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.0 percent, increasing 0.5 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier.

· United Kingdom. In IQ2012, UK GDP increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, GDP fell 0.1 percent relative to IQ2012 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, GDP increased 1.2 percent and increased 2.0 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier. In IVQ2012, GDP fell 0.2 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Fiscal consolidation in an environment of weakening economic growth is much more challenging. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 0.6 percent in IQ2013 relative to IVQ2012. In IIQ2013, GDP increased 0.5 percent and 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.9 percent in IIIQ2013 and 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2013 and 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, GDP increased 0.8 percent and 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2014 and 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIIQ2014 and 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, GDP increased 0.7 percent and 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2015 and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2016 and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2016 and grew 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2016 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2017 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, GDP increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2007 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier.

· Italy. Italy’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2018 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, the GDP of Italy increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2017 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2017, the GDP of Italy increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, the GDP of Italy increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2016, GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2015, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy changed 0.0 percent in IQ2014 and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2013 and fell 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2013 and fell 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 1.0 percent in IQ2013 and declined 2.9 percent relative to IQ2012. GDP had been growing during six consecutive quarters but at very low rates from IQ2010 to IIQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell in seven consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at increasingly higher rates of contraction from 0.6 percent in IIIQ2011 to 0.9 percent in IVQ2011, 0.9 percent in IQ2012, 0.9 percent in IIQ2012 and 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012. The pace of decline accelerated to minus 0.6 percent in IVQ2012 and minus 1.0 percent in IQ2013. GDP contracted cumulatively 5.3 percent in seven consecutive quarterly contractions from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at the annual equivalent rate of minus 3.1 percent. The yearly rate has fallen from 2.2 percent in IVQ2010 to minus 2.8 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.9 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.0 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.2 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.8 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.9 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.9 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.2 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.2 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIIQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.0 percent in IVQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.3 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.6 percent in IIQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.7 percent in IIIQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.6 percent in IVQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.4 percent in IQ2018 relative to a year earlier. Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of Italy in IQ2018 of €402,332.4 million (https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/214142) is lower by 5.5 percent relative to €425,734.7 million in IQ2008 (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat). Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of Italy increased from €368,105.8 million in IQ1998 to €425,734.7 million in IQ2008 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.5 percent. The fiscal adjustment of Italy is significantly more difficult with the economy not growing especially on the prospects of increasing government revenue. The strategy is for reforms to improve productivity, facilitating future fiscal consolidation.

· France. France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2012 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IIQ2012 and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2013 and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2013 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2013 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2015, France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2015, the GDP of France increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France decreased 0.1 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, the GDP of France increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2017, the GDP of France increased 0.6 percent and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2017 and increased 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, the GDP of France increased 0.7 percent and increased 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2018 and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier.

Table V-3, Percentage Changes of GDP Quarter on Prior Quarter and on Same Quarter Year Earlier, ∆%

	IQ2012/IVQ2011	IQ2012/IQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.7	2.8
Japan	QOQ: 1.2 SAAR: 4.8	3.1
China	1.9 AE 7.8	8.1
Euro Area	-0.1	-0.4
Germany	0.3	1.6
France	0.1	0.4
Italy	-0.9	-2.3
United Kingdom	0.6	1.2
	IIQ2012/IQ2012	IIQ2012/IIQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 1.9	2.5
Japan	QOQ: -0.7 SAAR: -2.6	2.9
China	2.1 AE 8.7	7.6
Euro Area	-0.3	-0.8
Germany	0.1	0.4 0.9 CA
France	-0.1	0.3
Italy	-0.9	-3.2
United Kingdom	-0.1	1.0
	IIIQ2012/ IIQ2012	IIIQ2012/ IIIQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.5	2.4
Japan	QOQ: –0.4 SAAR: –1.6	-0.1
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.5
Euro Area	-0.1	-0.9
Germany	0.2	0.2
France	0.1	0.2
Italy	-0.5	-3.1
United Kingdom	1.2	2.0
	IVQ2012/IIIQ2012	IVQ2012/IVQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.0 SAAR: 0.1	1.3
Japan	QOQ: 0.2 SAAR: 0.9	0.2
China	2.0 AE 8.2	8.1
Euro Area	-0.4	-1.0
Germany	-0.4	-0.1
France	-0.1	0.0
Italy	-0.6	-2.8
United Kingdom	-0.2	1.6
	IQ2013/IVQ2012	IQ2013/IQ2012
United States	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.8	1.3
Japan	QOQ: 1.2 SAAR: 4.9	0.5
China	1.9 AE 7.8	7.9
Euro Area	-0.3	-1.2
Germany	-0.2	-1.5
France	0.0	-0.1
Italy	-1.0	-2.9
UK	0.6	1.6
	IIQ2013/IQ2013	IIQ2013/IIQ2012
United States	QOQ: 0.2 SAAR: 0.8	1.0
Japan	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.4	1.8
China	1.7 AE 7.0	7.6
Euro Area	0.5	-0.4
Germany	0.9	0.9
France	0.7	0.7
Italy	0.0	-2.0
UK	0.5	2.2
	IIIQ2013/IIQ2013	III/Q2013/ IIIQ2012
USA	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.1	1.7
Japan	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.1	2.9
China	2.1 AE 8.7	7.9
Euro Area	0.4	0.1
Germany	0.5	1.2
France	0.0	0.6
Italy	0.3	-1.2
UK	0.9	1.9
	IVQ2013/IIIQ2013	IVQ2013/IVQ2012
USA	QOQ: 1.0 SAAR: 4.0	2.7
Japan	QOQ: 0.0 SAAR: -0.1	2.7
China	1.6 AE 6.6	7.7
Euro Area	0.3	0.8
Germany	0.4	1.4
France	0.4	1.1
Italy	-0.1	-0.8
UK	0.5	2.6
	IQ2014/IVQ2013	IQ2014/IQ2013
USA	QOQ -0.2 SAAR -0.9	1.7
Japan	QOQ: 1.0 SAAR: 4.0	3.0
China	1.7 AE 7.0	7.4
Euro Area	0.4	1.5
Germany	0.9	3.0
France	0.1	1.2
Italy	0.0	0.3
UK	0.8	2.8
	IIQ2014/IQ2014	IIQ2014/IIQ2013
USA	QOQ 1.1 SAAR 4.6	2.7
Japan	QOQ: -1.8 SAAR: -7.1	-0.1
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.5
Euro Area	0.1	1.2
Germany	-0.2	1.3
France	0.2	0.7
Italy	-0.1	0.2
UK	0.8	3.1
	IIIQ2014/IIQ2014	IIIQ2014/IIIQ2013
USA	QOQ: 1.3 SAAR: 5.2	3.2
Japan	QOQ: 0.0 SAAR: -0.2	-1.0
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.1
Euro Area	0.4	1.2
Germany	0.3	1.5
France	0.5	1.3
Italy	0.2	0.1
UK	0.7	2.9
	IVQ2014/IIIQ2014	IVQ2014/IVQ2013
USA	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.0	2.7
Japan	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.5	-0.4
China	1.7 AE 7.0	7.2
Euro Area	0.5	1.5
Germany	0.9	2.0
France	0.0	0.8
Italy	0.0	0.2
UK	0.7	3.1
	IQ2015/IVQ2014	IQ2015/IQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.2	3.8
Japan	QOQ: 1.5 SAAR: 6.1	0.2
China	1.7 AE 7.0	7.0
Euro Area	0.8	1.8
Germany	0.1	1.3
France	0.4	1.2
Italy	0.2	0.4
UK	0.4	2.7
	IIQ2015/IQ2015	IIQ2015/IIQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.7	3.3
Japan	QOQ: -0.1 SAAR: -0.3	2.1
China	1.7 AE 7.0	7.0
Euro Area	0.3	2.0
Germany	0.4	1.8
France	0.0	0.9
Italy	0.4	0.9
UK	0.6	2.4
	IIIQ2015/IIQ2015	IIIQ2015/IIIQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.6	2.4
Japan	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.3	2.1
China	1.7 AE 7.0	6.9
Euro Area	0.4	2.0
Germany	0.3	1.8
France	0.4	0.8
Italy	0.2	0.9
UK	0.4	2.1
	IVQ2015/IIIQ2015	IVQ2015/IVQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.5	2.0
Japan	QOQ: -0.3 SAAR: -1.2	1.1
China	1.5 AE 6.1	6.8
Euro Area	0.4	2.0
Germany	0.4	2.1
France	0.2	1.0
Italy	0.3	1.2
UK	0.7	2.2
	IQ2016/IVQ2015	IQ2016/IQ2015
USA	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.6	1.4
Japan	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.4	0.6
China	1.3 AE 5.3	6.7
Euro Area	0.5	1.7
Germany	0.6	1.5
France	0.6	1.2
Italy	0.2	1.2
UK	0.3	2.1
	IIQ2016/IQ2016	IIQ2016/IIQ2015
USA	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.2	1.2
Japan	QOQ: 0.2 SAAR: 0.9	0.8
China	2.0 AE 8.2	6.7
Euro Area	0.4	1.7
Germany	0.5	3.3
France	-0.1	1.2
Italy	0.1	0.8
UK	0.2	1.7
	IIIQ2016/IIQ2016	IIIQ2016/IIIQ2015
United States	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.8	1.5
Japan	QOQ: 0.2 SAAR: 0.8	0.9
China	1.8 AE 7.4	6.7
Euro Area	0.4	1.7
Germany	0.3	1.7
France	0.2	0.9
Italy	0.2	0.8
UK	0.5	1.7
	IVQ2016/IIIQ2016	IVQ2016/IVQ2015
United States	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.8	1.8
Japan	QOQ: 0.2 SAAR: 1.0	1.5
China	1.6 AE 6.6	6.8
Euro Area	0.7	2.0
Germany	0.4	1.3
France	0.5	1.2
Italy	0.5	1.0
UK	0.7	1.7
	IQ2017/IVQ2016	IQ2017/IQ2016
United States	QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.2	2.0
Japan	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.7	1.4
China	1.5 AE 6.1	6.9
Euro Area	0.7	2.1
Germany	0.9	3.4
France	0.7	1.2
Italy	0.5	1.3
UK	0.4	1.8
	IIQ2017/IQ2017	IIQ2017/IIQ2016
USA	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.1	2.2
Japan	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.1	1.6
China	1.8 AE 7.4	6.9
Euro Area	0.7	2.5
Germany	0.6	1.0 CA 2.3
France	0.6	2.0
Italy	0.4	1.6
UK	0.2	1.8
	IIIQ2017/IIQ2017	IIIQ2017/IIIQ2016
USA	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.2	2.3
Japan	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.0	2.0
China	1.8 AE 7.4	6.8
Euro Area	0.7	2.8
Germany	0.7	2.2 CA 2.7
France	0.5	2.3
Italy	0.3	1.7
UK	0.4	1.7
	IVQ2017/IIIQ2017	IVQ2017/IVQ2016
USA	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.9	2.6
Japan	QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.0	1.9
China	1.6 AE 6.6	6.8
Euro Area	0.7	2.8
Germany	0.6	2.3 CA 2.9
France	0.7	2.6
Italy	0.4	1.6
UK	0.4	1.3
	IQ2018/IVQ2017	IQ2018/IQ2017
USA	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.0	2.8
Japan	QOQ: -0.2 SAAR: -0.6	1.1
China	1.4 AE 5.7	6.8
Euro Area	0.4	2.5
Germany	0.3	1.6 CA 2.3
France	0.3	2.1
Italy	0.3	1.4
UK	0.2	1.2

QOQ: Quarter relative to prior quarter; SAAR: seasonally adjusted annual rate

Source: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.census.gov/aboutus/stat_int.html

Table V-4 provides two types of data: growth of exports and imports in the latest available months and in the past 12 months; and contributions of net trade (exports less imports) to growth of real GDP.

Japan. Japan provides the most worrisome data (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/global-decline-of-values-of-financial.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/07/valuation-of-risk-financial-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/fluctuating-financial-asset-valuations.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/dollar-revaluation-squeezing-corporate.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/patience-on-interest-rate-increases.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/monetary-policy-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/valuation-risks-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/interest-rate-risks-world-inflation.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/global-financial-risk-world-inflation.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations_8763.html http://cmpass ocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/paring-quantitative-easing-policy-and_4699.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/thirty-one-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/12/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_24.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/11/contraction-of-united-states-real_25.html and for GDP http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what_13.html). In May 2018, Japan’s exports increased 8.1 percent in 12 months while imports increased 14.0 percent. The second part of Table V-4 shows that net trade deducted 2.0 percentage points from Japan’s growth of GDP in IIQ2012, deducted 1.9 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2012 and deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2012. Net trade added 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2012, 1.4 percentage points in IQ2013 and subtracted 0.2 percentage points in IIQ2013. In IIIQ2013, net trade deducted 1.3 percentage points from GDP growth in Japan. Net trade deducted 2.2 percentage points from GDP growth in Japan in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 0.8 percentage points from GDP growth of Japan in IQ2014. Net trade added 3.9 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2014 and added 1.5 percentage points in IVQ2014. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2015 and deducted 0.7 percentage points in IIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2015 and contributed 0.0 percentage points in IVQ2015. Net trade added 1.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2016 and added 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2016. Net trade added 1.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2016 and added 1.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2016. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points in IQ2017 and deducted 1.1 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade added 2.2 percentage points in IIIQ2017 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IVQ2017. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points in IQ2018.

China. In May 2018, China exports increased 12.6 percent relative to a year earlier and imports increased 26.0 percent.
Germany. Germany’s exports decreased 0.3 percent in the month of Apr 2018 and increased 9.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2018. Germany’s imports increased 2.2 percent in the month of Apr 2018 and increased 8.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2018. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to growth of GDP in IQ2012, contributed 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2012, contributed 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2012, deducted 0.5 percentage points in IVQ2012, deducted 0.3 percentage points in IQ2013 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded deducted 0.0 percentage points from Germany’s GDP growth in IIIQ2013 and added 1.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2014 and added 0.7 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 0.5 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.3 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.5 percentage points in IVQ2015 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.4 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.4 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade added 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.4 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2017. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade added 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2018.
United Kingdom. Net trade contributed 0.7 percentage points in IIQ2013. In IIIQ2013, net trade deducted 1.7 percentage points from UK growth. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to UK value added in IVQ2013. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to UK value added in IQ2014 and 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2014 and added 0.0 percentage points in IVQ2014. Net traded deducted 0.4 percentage points from growth in IQ2015. Net trade added 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.1-percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 1.8 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade added 1.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2017 and contributed 0.0 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018.
France. France’s exports increased 3.0 percent in Apr 2018 while imports increased 2.5 percent. France’s exports increased 9.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2018 and imports increased 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Net traded added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IIIQ2012 and 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IQ2013 and added 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2013, deducting 1.7 percentage points in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IVQ2013 and deducted 0.1 percentage points in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IIQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to France’s GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.6 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015 and deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.3 percentage points to GDP in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP in IIIQ2016 and added 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP in IQ2017 and added 0.9 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2018.
United States. US exports increased 0.3 percent in Apr 2018 and goods exports increased 8.8 percent in Jan-Apr 2018 relative to a year earlier. Imports decreased 0.2 percent in Apr 2018 and goods imports increased 9.4 percent in Jan-Apr 2018 relative to a year earlier. Net trade added 0.28 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2012 and added 0.16 percentage points in IIIQ2012 and 0.58 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade added 0.30 percentage points to US GDP growth in IQ2013 and deducted 0.21 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded added 0.13 percentage points to US GDP growth in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 1.29 percentage points to US GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 1.14 percentage points from US GDP growth in IQ2014 and deducted 0.40 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade added 0.28 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2014. Net trade deducted 1.02 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 1.64 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.03 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.77 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.28 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.28 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.28 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade added 0.36 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade deducted 1.61 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2016. Net trade added 0.22 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017. Net trade added 0.21 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2017. Net trade added 0.36 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade deducted 1.16 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.04 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018.

Manufacturing jobs not seasonally adjusted increased 262,000 from May 2017 to
May 2018 or at the average monthly rate of 21,833. Industrial production decreased 0.1 percent in May 2018 and increased 0.9 percent in Apr 2018 after increasing 0.5 percent in Mar 2018, with all data seasonally adjusted, as shown in Table I-1. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System conducted the annual revision of industrial production released on Mar 23, 2018 (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/revisions/Current/DefaultRev.htm):

“The Federal Reserve has revised its index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization.[1] On net, the revisions to total IP for recent years were negative: For the 2015–17 period, the current estimates show rates of change that are 0.4 to 0.7 percentage point lower in each year.[2] Total IP is still reported to have moved up about 22 1/2 percent from the end of the recession in mid-2009 through late 2014. Subsequently, the index declined in 2015, edged down in 2016, and increased in 2017. The incorporation of detailed data for manufacturing from the U.S. Census Bureau's 2016 Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM) accounts for the majority of the differences between the current and the previously published estimates.

Revisions to capacity for total industry were mixed. Capacity growth was revised up about 1/2 percentage point for 2016, but revisions to other recent years were negative. Capacity for total industry is estimated to have expanded less than 1 percent in 2015, 2016, and 2017, but it is expected to increase about 2 percent in 2018.

In the fourth quarter of 2017, capacity utilization for total industry stood at 77.0 percent, about 1/2 percentage point below its previous estimate and about 3 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2017) average. The utilization rate for 2016 is also lower than the previous estimate.”

Manufacturing decreasing 22.3 from the peak in Jun 2007 to the trough in Apr 2009 and increased 16.1 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Dec 2017. Manufacturing grew 19.1 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to May 2018. Manufacturing in May 2018 is lower by 7.5 percent relative to the peak in Jun 2007. The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IQ2018 would have accumulated to 35.4 percent. GDP in IQ2018 would be $20,298.9 billion (in constant dollars of 2009) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $2927.0 billion than actual $17,371.9 billion. There are about two trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 20.6 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 12.1 percent of the effective labor force (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html). US GDP in IQ2018 is 14.4 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $14,991.8 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $17,371.9 billion in IQ2018 or 15.9 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.4 percent. Professor John H. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. Cochrane (2016May02) measures GDP growth in the US at average 3.5 percent per year from 1950 to 2000 and only at 1.76 percent per year from 2000 to 2015 with only at 2.0 percent annual equivalent in the current expansion. Cochrane (2016May02) proposes drastic changes in regulation and legal obstacles to private economic activity. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 3.2 percent per year from May 1919 to May 2018. Growth at 3.2 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output from 108.3221 in Dec 2007 to 150.3883 in May 2018. The actual index NSA in May 2018 is 103.9274, which is 30.9 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 1.9 percent between Dec 1986 and May 2018. Using trend growth of 1.9 percent per year, the index would increase to 131.7847 in May 2018. The output of manufacturing at 103.9274 in May 2018 is 21.1 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Table I-13 provides national income by industry without capital consumption adjustment (WCCA). “Private industries” or economic activities have share of 86.9 percent in IQ2018. Most of US national income is in the form of services. In May 2018, there were 149.309 million nonfarm jobs NSA in the US, according to estimates of the establishment survey of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm Table B-1). Total private jobs of 126.650 million NSA in May 2018 accounted for 84.8 percent of total nonfarm jobs of 149.309 million, of which 12.651 million, or 10.0 percent of total private jobs and 8.5 percent of total nonfarm jobs, were in manufacturing. Private service-providing jobs were 105.986 million NSA in May 2018, or 71.0 percent of total nonfarm jobs and 83.7 percent of total private-sector jobs. Manufacturing has share of 9.8 percent in US national income in IQ2018 and durable goods 5.8 percent, as shown in Table I-13. Most income in the US originates in services. Subsidies and similar measures designed to increase manufacturing jobs will not increase economic growth and employment and may actually reduce growth by diverting resources away from currently employment-creating activities because of the drain of taxation.

Table V-4, Growth of Trade and Contributions of Net Trade to GDP Growth, ∆% and % Points

	Exports M ∆%	Exports 12 M ∆%	Imports M ∆%	Imports 12 M ∆%
USA	0.3 Apr	8.8 Jan-Apr	-0.2 Apr	9.4 Jan-Apr
Japan		May 2018 8.1 Apr 2018 7.8 Mar 2018 2.1 Feb 2018 1.8 Jan 2018 12.2 Dec 2017 9.3 Nov 2017 16.2 Oct 2017 14.0 Sep 2017 14.1 Aug 2017 18.1 Jul 2017 13.4 Jun 2017 9.7 May 2017 14.9 Apr 2017 7.5 Mar 2017 12.0 Feb 2017 11.3 Jan 2017 1.3 Dec 2016 5.4 Nov 2016 -0.4 Oct 2016 -10.3 Sep 2016 -6.9 Aug 2016 9.6 Jul 2016 -14.0 Jun 2016 -7.8 May 2016 -11.3 Apr 2016 -10.1 Mar 2016 -6.8 Feb 2016 -4.0 Jan 2016 -12.9 Dec 2015 -8.0 Nov 2015 -3.3 Oct 2015 -2.1 Sep 2015 0.6 Aug 3.1 Jul 2015 7.6 Jun 2015 9.5 May 2015 2.4 Apr 8.0 Mar 8.5 Feb 2.4 Jan 17.0 Dec 12.9 Nov 4.9 Oct 9.6 Sep 6.9 Aug -1.3 Jul 3.9 Jun -2.0 May 2014 -2.7 Apr 2014 5.1 Mar 2014 1.8 Feb 2014 9.5 Jan 2014 9.5 Dec 2013 15.3 Nov 2013 18.4 Oct 2013 18.6 Sep 2013 11.5 Aug 2013 14.7 Jul 2013 12.2 Jun 2013 7.4 May 2013 10.1 Apr 2013 3.8 Mar 2013 1.1 Feb 2013 -2.9 Jan 2013 6.4 Dec -5.8 Nov -4.1 Oct -6.5 Sep -10.3 Aug -5.8 Jul -8.1		May 2018 14.0 Apr 5.9 Mar 2018 -0.6 Feb 2018 16.6 Jan 2018 7.9 Dec 2017 14.9 Nov 2017 17.2 Oct 2017 18.9 Sep 2017 12.0 Aug 2017 15.2 Jul 2017 16.3 Jun 2017 15.5 May 2017 17.8 Apr 2017 15.1 Mar 2017 15.8 Feb 2017 1.2 Jan 2017 8.5 Dec 2016 -2.6 Nov 2016 -8.8 Oct 2016 -16.5 Sep 2016 -16.3 Aug 2016 -17.3 Jul 2016 -24.7 Jun 2016 -18.8 May 2016 -13.8 Apr 2016 -23.3 Mar 2016 -14.9 Feb 2016 -14.2 Jan 2016 -18.0 Dec 2015 -18.0 Nov 2015 -10.2 Oct 2015 -13.4 Sep 2015 -11.1 Aug -3.1 Jul 2015 -3.2 Jun 2015 -2.9 May 2015 -8.7 Apr -4.2 Mar -14.5 Feb -3.6 Jan -9.0 Dec 1.9 Nov -1.7 Oct 2.7 Sep 6.2 Aug -1.5 Jul 2.3 Jun 8.4 May 2014 -3.6 Apr 2013 3.4 Mar 2014 18.1 Feb 2014 9.0 Jan 2014 25.0 Dec 2013 24.7 Nov 2013 21.1 Oct 2013 26.1 Sep 2013 16.5 Aug 2013 16.0 Jul 2013 19.6 Jun 2013 11.8 May 2013 10.0 Apr 2013 9.4 Mar 2013 5.5 Feb 2013 7.3 Jan 2013 7.3 Dec 1.9 Nov 0.8 Oct -1.6 Sep 4.1 Aug -5.4 Jul 2.1
China	Jan-Dec 2017 7.9 Jan-Dec 2016 -7.7 Jan-Dec 2015 -2.8	2018 May 12.6 Apr 12.9 Mar -2.7 Feb 44.5 Jan 11.1 2017 Dec 10.9 Nov 12.3 Oct 6.9 Sep 8.1 Aug 5.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 11.3 May 8.7 Apr 8.0 Mar 16.4 Feb -1.3 Jan 7.9 2016 Dec 3.1 Nov 0.1 Oct -7.3 Sep -10.0 Aug -2.8 Jul -4.4 Jun -4.8 May -4.1 Apr -1.8 Mar 11.5 Feb -25.4 Jan -11.2 2015 -1.4 Dec -6.8 Nov -6.9 Oct -3.7 Sep -5.5 Aug -8.3 Jul 2.8 Jun -2.5 May -6.4 Apr -15.0 Mar 48.3 Feb -3.3 Jan 2014 9.7 Dec 4.7 Nov 11.6 Oct 15.3 Sep 9.4 Aug 14.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 7.0 May 0.9 Apr -6.6 Mar -18.1 Feb 10.6 Jan 2013 4.3 Dec 12.7 Nov 5.6 Oct -0.3 Sep 7.2 Aug 5.1 Jul -3.1 Jun 1.0 May 14.7 Apr 10.0 Mar 21.8 Feb 25.0 Jan	Jan-Dec 2017 15.9 Jan-Dec 2016 -5.5 Jan-Dec 2015 -14.1	2018 May 26.0 Apr 21.5 Mar 14.4 Feb 6.3 Jan 36.9 2017 Dec 4.5 Nov 17.7 Oct 17.2 Sep 18.7 Aug 13.3 Jul 11.0 Jun 17.2 May 14.8 Apr 11.9 Mar 20.3 Feb 38.1 Jan 16.7 2016 Dec -7.7 Nov 6.7 Oct -1.4 Sep -1.9 Aug 1.5 Jul -12.5 Jun -2.8 May -0.4 Apr -10.6 Mar -7.6 Feb -13.8 Jan -18.8 2015 -7.6 Dec -8.7 Nov -18.8 Oct -20.4 Sep -13.8 Aug -8.1 Jul -6.1 Jun -17.6 May -12.7 Mar -20.5 Feb -19.9 Jan 2014 -2.4 Dec -6.7 Nov 4.6 Oct 7.0 Sep -2.4 Aug -1.6 Jul 5.5 Jun -1.6 May -0.8 Apr -11.3 Mar 10.1 Feb 10.0 Jan 2013 8.3 Dec 5.3 Nov 7.6 Oct 7.4 Sep 7.0 Aug 10.9 Jul -0.7 Jun -0.3 May 16.8 Apr 14.1 Mar -15.2 Feb 28.8 Jan
Euro Area	8.0 12-Apr 18	3.8 Jan-Apr 18	8.1 12-Apr 18	3.2 Jan-Apr 18
Germany	-0.3 Apr CSA	9.3 Apr	2.2 Apr CSA	8.2 Apr
France Apr	3.0	9.5	2.5	7.1
Italy Apr	0.1	4.1	0.7	4.2
UK	-3.2 Apr	0.1 Jan 18-Apr 18 /Jan 17 Apr 17	0.7 Apr	1.7 Jan 18-Apr 18 /Jan 17-Apr 17
Net Trade % Points GDP Growth	Points
USA	IQ2018 -0.04 IVQ2017 -1.16 IIIQ2017 0.36 IIQ2017 0.21 IQ2017 0.22 IVQ2016 -1.61 IIIQ2016 0.36 IIQ2016 0.28 IQ2016 -0.28 IVQ2015 -0.28 IIIQ2015 -0.77 IIQ2015 -0.03 IQ2015 -1.64 IVQ2014 -1.02 IIIQ2014 0.28 IIQ2014 -0.40 IQ2014 -1.14 IVQ2013 1.29 IIIQ2013 0.13 IIQ2013 -0.21 IQ2013 0.30 IVQ2012 +0.58 IIIQ2012 0.16 IIQ2012 0.28 IQ2012 -0.02
Japan	0.7 IQ2012 -2.0 IIQ2012 -1.9 IIIQ2012 -0.3 IVQ2012 1.4 IQ2013 -0.2 IIQ2013 -1.3 IIIQ2013 -2.2 IVQ2013 -0.8 IQ2014 3.9 IIQ2014 -0.1 IIIQ2014 1.5 IVQ2014 0.1 IQ2015 -0.7 IIQ2015 -0.3 IIIQ2015 0.0 IVQ2015 1.4 IQ2016 0.3 IIQ2016 1.5 IIIQ2016 1.3 IVQ2016 0.4 IQ2017 -1.1 IIQ2017 2.2 IIIQ2017 -0.4 IVQ2017 0.2 IQ2018
Germany	IQ2012 0.8 IIQ2012 0.3 IIIQ2012 0.4 IVQ2012 -0.5 IQ2013 -0.3 IIQ2013 -0.4 IIIQ2013 0.0 IVQ2013 1.0 IQ2014 -0.1 IIQ2014 -0.3 IIIQ2014 0.7 IVQ2014 0.1 IQ2015 -0.5 IIQ2015 0.7 IIIQ2015 -0.3 IVQ2015 -0.5 IQ2016 -0.2 IIQ2016 0.7 IIIQ2016 -0.4 IVQ2016 -0.4 IQ2017 0.5 IIQ2017 -0.4 IIIQ2017 0.4 IVQ2017 0.5 IQ2018 -0.1
France	0.1 IIIQ2012 0.1 IVQ2012 -0.1 IQ2013 0.3 IIQ2013 -1.7 IIIQ2013 0.1 IVQ2013 -0.1 IQ2014 -0.2 IIQ2014 -0.2 IIIQ2014 0.2 IVQ2014 -0.2 IQ2015 0.4 IIQ2015 -0.6 IIIQ2015 -0.7 IVQ2015 -0.1 IQ2016 0.3 IIQ2016 -0.6 IIIQ2016 0.1 IVQ2016 -0.6 IQ2017 0.9 IIQ2017 -0.3 IIIQ2017 0.6 IVQ2017 -0.1 IQ2018
UK	0.7 IIQ2013 -1.7 IIIQ2013 0.1 IVQ2013 0.8 IQ2014 0.3 IIQ2014 -0.7 IIIQ2014 0.0 IVQ2014 -0.4 IQ2015 1.1 IIQ2015 -0.4 IIIQ2015 -0.2 IVQ2015 -0.1 IQ2016 0.1 IIQ2016 -1.8 IIIQ2016 1.7 IVQ2016 0.0 IQ2017 0.0 IIQ2017
	0.1
	IIIQ2017 0.3 IVQ2017 0.1 IQ2018

Sources: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/

The geographical breakdown of exports and imports of Japan with selected regions and countries is in Table V-5 for May 2018. The share of Asia in Japan’s trade is close to one-half for 56.1 percent of exports and 46.4 percent of imports. Within Asia, exports to China are 20.1 percent of total exports and imports from China 22.5 percent of total imports. While exports of Japan to China increased 13.9 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2018, imports from China increased 8.6 percent. The second largest export market for Japan in May 2018 is the US with share of 18.1 percent of total exports, which is close to that of China, and share of imports from the US of 11.7 percent in total imports. Japan’s exports to the US increased 5.8 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2018 and imports from the US increased 19.9 percent. Western Europe has share of 11.4 percent in Japan’s exports and of 12.8 percent in imports. Rates of growth of exports of Japan in May 2018 are 5.8 percent for exports to the US, 50.3 percent for exports to Brazil and 7.3 percent for exports to Germany. Comparisons relative to 2011 may have some bias because of the effects of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Deceleration of growth in China and the US and threat of recession in Europe can reduce world trade and economic activity. Growth rates of imports in the 12 months ending in May 2018 are mixed. Imports from Asia increased 9.4 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2018 while imports from China increased 8.6 percent. Data are in millions of yen, which may have effects of recent depreciation of the yen relative to the United States dollar (USD) and revaluation of the dollar relative to the euro.

Table V-5, Japan, Value and 12-Month Percentage Changes of Exports and Imports by Regions and Countries, ∆% and Millions of Yen

May 2018	Exports Millions of Yen	12 months ∆%	Imports Millions of Yen	12 months ∆%
Total	6,323,324	8.1	6,901,645	14.0
Asia	3,550,135 % Total 56.1	9.8	3,204,208 % Total 46.4	9.4
China	1,272,297 % Total 20.1	13.9	1,552,505 % Total 22.5	8.6
USA	1,145,891 % Total 18.1	5.8	805,186 % Total 11.7	19.9
Canada	87,246	3.9	105,760	-2.2
Brazil	38,933	50.3	84,648	41.4
Mexico	105,328	4.2	50,918	17.1
Western Europe	722,512 % Total 11.4	-0.3	884,295 % Total 12.8	14.0
Germany	170,223	7.3	238,513	11.0
France	58,942	12.3	86,460	-12.8
UK	116,243	-8.1	74,056	16.3
Middle East	172,023	15.0	825,666	33.5
Australia	157,574	28.1	417,066	21.1

Source: Japan, Ministry of Finance http://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/info/index_e.htm

World trade projections of the IMF are in Table V-6. There is increasing growth of the volume of world trade of goods and services from 4.9 percent in 2017 to 5.1 percent in 2018, stabilizing to 4.7 percent in 2019. Growth stabilizes at 4.3 percent on average from 2017 to 2023. World trade would be slower for advanced economies while emerging and developing economies (EMDE) experience faster growth. World economic slowdown would be more challenging with lower growth of world trade.

Table V-6, IMF, Projections of World Trade, USD Billions, USD/Barrel and Annual ∆%

	2017	2018	2019	Average ∆% 2017-2023
World Trade Volume (Goods and Services)	4.9	5.1	4.7	4.3
Exports Goods & Services	5.0	4.7	4.4	4.2
Imports Goods & Services	4.8	5.4	4.9	4.4
Exports Goods & Services
G7	4.3	4.6	3.7	3.6
EMDE	6.4	5.1	5.3	5.1
Imports Goods & Services
G7	4.1	5.4	4.6	3.6
EMDE	6.4	6.0	5.6	5.6
Terms of Trade Goods & Services
G7	-0.4	0.8	0.4	0.1
EMDE	0.6	1.1	-0.5	0.2
World Crude Oil Price $/Barrel	52.81	62.31	58.24	55.73

Crude Oil: Simple Average of three spot prices: Dated Brent, West Texas Intermediate and the Dubai Fateh

Source: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook databank

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2018/01/weodata/index.aspx

The JP Morgan Global All-Industry Output Index of the JP Morgan Manufacturing and Services PMI^™, produced by JP Morgan and HIS Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM, with high association with world GDP, increased to 54.6 in Jun from 54.3 in May, indicating expansion at faster rate (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b3831af87ec8494d8a87bce52e572339). This index has remained above the contraction territory of 50.0 during 69 consecutive months. The employment index increased from 52.9 in May to 53.1 in Jun with input prices rising at faster rate, new orders increasing at faster rate and output increasing at faster rate (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b3831af87ec8494d8a87bce52e572339). David Hensley, Director of Global Economic Coordination at JP Morgan, finds consistent growth with recent improvement (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/9a6cbb7b0cf64a7cb1b28587225cd52d). The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI^™, produced by JP Morgan and IHS Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM, decreased to 53.0 in Jun from 53.1 in May (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/45c687ba560f4cd899b8150677bc7f60). New export orders increased. David Hensley, Director of Global Economic Coordination at JP Morgan, finds consistent growth (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/81479b6b5fbd4ff2b0b5ee0ab5dae733). The Markit Brazil Composite Output Index decreased from 49.7 in May to 47.0 in Jun, indicating contraction in activity of Brazil’s private sector (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/aa49fab79c13469abacafe19b9b10a44). The Markit Brazil Services Business Activity index, compiled by Markit, decreased from 49.5 in May to 47.0 in Jun indicating contracting services activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/aa49fab79c13469abacafe19b9b10a44). Pollyanna de Lima, Principal Economist at Markit, finds slowing services (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/aa49fab79c13469abacafe19b9b10a44). The HIS Markit Brazil Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^TM (PMI^™) decreased from 50.7 in May to 49.8 in Jun, indicating manufacturing below neutral 50.0 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/885e80f569cb4b539d667f00d74b773f). Pollyanna de Lima, Principal Economist at Markit, finds slowing manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/885e80f569cb4b539d667f00d74b773f).

VA United States. The HIS Markit Flash US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) seasonally adjusted decreased to 54.6 in Jun from 56.4 in May (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/ee86238dc1914ba8af193f3ad92da88d). New export orders decreased. The HIS Markit Flash US Services PMI™ Business Activity Index decreased from 56.8 in May to 56.5 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/ee86238dc1914ba8af193f3ad92da88d). The IHS Markit Flash US Composite PMI™ Output Index decreased from 56.6 in May to 56.0 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/ee86238dc1914ba8af193f3ad92da88d). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds that the surveys are consistent with GDP growth at annualized over 3.0 percent. (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/ee86238dc1914ba8af193f3ad92da88d). The HIS Markit US Composite PMI™ Output Index of Manufacturing and Services decreased to 56.2 in Jun from 56.6 in May (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e5008c6842f94213893ce1f4c60d3735). The HIS Markit US Services PMI™ Business Activity Index decreased from 56.8 in May to 56.5 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e5008c6842f94213893ce1f4c60d3735). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds the indexes suggesting growth momentum in IIQ2018 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e5008c6842f94213893ce1f4c60d3735). The HIS Markit US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) decreased to 55.4 in Jun from 56.4 in May (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/368b1aa446ec458baffca63d6ab76530). New foreign orders decreased. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at HIS Markit, finds growth at annualized 2.5 percent (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/368b1aa446ec458baffca63d6ab76530). The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Report on Business^® increased 1.5-percentage points from 58.7 in May to 60.2 in Jun, which indicates Faster growth (https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm?navItemNumber=31053). The index of new export orders increased 0.7 percentage points from 55.6 in May to 56.3 in Jun. The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report on Business^® PMI increased 0.5 percentage points from 58.6 in May to 59.1 in Jun, indicating growth of business activity/production during 107 consecutive months, while the index of new orders increased 2.7 percentage points from 60.5 in May to 63.2 in Jun (https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm?navItemNumber=31063). Table USA provides the country economic indicators for the US.

Table USA, US Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index	May 12 months NSA ∆%: 2.8; Ex food and energy ∆%: 2.2 May month SA ∆%: 0.2; Ex food and energy ∆%: 0.2 Blog 6/17/18 5/27/18
Producer Price Index	Finished Goods May 12-month NSA ∆%: 4.1; ex food and energy ∆% 2.2 May month SA ∆% 1.0; ex food and energy ∆%: 0.2 Final Demand May 12-month NSA ∆%: 3.1; ex food and energy ∆% 2.4 May month SA ∆% 0.5; ex food and energy ∆%: 0.3 Blog 6/17/18 5/27/18
PCE Inflation	May 12-month NSA ∆%: headline 2.3 ex food and energy ∆% 2.0 Blog 7/8/18
Employment Situation	Household Survey: Jun Unemployment Rate SA 4.0% Blog calculation People in Job Stress Jun: 20.6 million NSA, 12.1% of Labor Force Establishment Survey: Jun Nonfarm Jobs 213.000; Private 202,000 jobs created Apr 12-month Average Hourly Earnings Inflation Adjusted ∆%: 0.2 Blog 7/8/18
Nonfarm Hiring	Nonfarm Hiring fell from 63.5 million in 2006 to 58.6 million in 2014 or by 4.9 million and to 63.2 million in 2016 or by 0.25 million. Nonfarm hiring increased to 65.3 million in 2017 or 2.2 million relative to 2016. Private-Sector Hiring Apr 2018 5.990 million higher by 6.7 percent than 5.612 million in Apr 2006 while population grew 29.073 million or 12.7 percent Blog 6/10/18
GDP Growth	BEA Revised National Income Accounts IQ2012/IQ2011 ∆%: 2.8 IIQ2012/IIQ2011 2.5 IIIQ2012/IIIQ2011 2.4 IVQ2012/IVQ2011 1.3 IQ2013/IQ2012 1.3 IIQ2013/IIQ2012 1.0 IIIQ2013/IIIQ2012 1.7 IVQ2013/IVQ2012 2.7 IQ2014/IQ2013 1.7 IIQ2014/IIQ2013 2.7 IIIQ2014/IIIQ2013 3.2 IVQ2014/IVQ2013 2.7 IQ2015/IQ2014 3.8 IIQ2015/IIQ2014 3.3 IIIQ2015/IIIQ2014 2.4 IVQ2015/IVQ2014 2.0 IQ2016/IQ2015 1.4 IIQ2016/IIQ2015 1.2 IIIQ2016/IIIQ2015 1.5 IVQ2016/IVQ2015 1.8 IQ2017/IQ2016 2.0 IIQ2017/IIQ2016 2.2 IIIQ2017/IIIQ2016 2.3 IVQ2017/IVQ2016 2.6 IQ2018/IQ2017 2.8 IQ2012 SAAR 2.7 IIQ2012 SAAR 1.9 IIIQ2012 SAAR 0.5 IVQ2012 SAAR 0.1 IQ2013 SAAR 2.8 IIQ2013 SAAR 0.8 IIIQ2013 SAAR 3.1 IVQ2013 SAAR 4.0 IQ2014 SAAR -0.9 IIQ2014 SAAR 4.6 IIIQ2014 SAAR 5.2 IVQ2014 SAAR 2.0 IQ2015 SAAR 3.2 IIQ2015 SAAR: 2.7 IIIQ2015 SAAR: 1.6 IVQ2015 SAAR: 0.5 IQ2016 SAAR: 0.6 IIQ2016 SAAR: 2.2 IIIQ2016 SAAR: 2.8 IVQ2016 SAAR 1.8 IQ2017 SAAR 1.2 IIQ2017 SAAR 3.1 IIIQ2017 SAAR 3.2 IVQ2017 SAAR 2.9 IQ2018 SAAR 2.0 Blog 7/1/18
Real Private Fixed Investment	SAAR IQ201 ∆% 7.6 IQ2018 to IQ2017: 17.1% Blog 7/1/18
Corporate Profits	IQ2018 SAAR: Corporate Profits 6.8; Undistributed Profits 42.8 Blog 7/1/18
Personal Income and Consumption	May month ∆% SA Real Disposable Personal Income (RDPI) SA ∆% 0.2 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (RPCE): 0.0 12-month May NSA ∆%: RDPI: 1.7; RPCE ∆%: 2.3 Blog 7/8/18
Quarterly Services Report	IQ18/IQ17 NSA ∆%: Information 7.0 Financial & Insurance 7.8 Earlier Data: Blog 3/22/15
Employment Cost Index	Compensation Private IVQ2017 SA ∆%: 0.5 Dec 12 months ∆%: 2.6 Earlier Data: Blog 2/1/15
Industrial Production	May month SA ∆%: -0.1 May 12 months SA ∆%: 3.5 Manufacturing May SA -0.7 ∆% May 12 months SA ∆% 1.7, NSA 1.7 Capacity Utilization: 78.0 Blog 6/24/18
Productivity and Costs	Nonfarm Business Productivity IQ2018∆% SAAE 0.4; IQ2018/IQ2017 ∆% 1.3; Unit Labor Costs SAAE IQ2018 ∆% 2.9; IQ2018/IQ2017 ∆%: 1.3 Blog 6/17/18
New York Fed Manufacturing Index	General Business Conditions from May 20.1 to Jun 25.0 New Orders: From May 16.0 to Jun 21.3 Blog 6/24/18
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index	General Index from May 34.4 to Jun 19.9 New Orders from May 40.6 to Jun 17.9 Blog 6/24/18
Manufacturing Shipments and Orders	May Orders SA ∆% 0.4 Ex Transport 0.7 Jan-May 18/Jan-May 17 NSA New Orders ∆% 8.7 Ex transport 7.7 Earlier data: Blog 4/5/15
Durable Goods	May New Orders SA ∆%: minus 0.6; ex transport ∆%: minus 0.3 Jan-May 18/Jan 17 New Orders NSA ∆%: 9.9 ex transport ∆% 8.2 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15
Sales of New Motor Vehicles	Mar 2018 4,110,545; Mar 2017 4,032,790. Jun 18 SAAR 17.47 million, May 18 SAAR 16.91 million, Jun 2017 SAAR 16.70 million Blog 7/8/18
Sales of Merchant Wholesalers	Jan-Apr 2018/Jan-Apr 2017 NSA ∆%: Total 7.5; Durable Goods: 8.8; Nondurable Goods: 6.3 EARLIER DATA: Blog 4/12/15
Sales and Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers	Apr 18 12-M NSA ∆%: Sales Total Business 7.9; Manufacturers 8.9 Retailers 3.8; Merchant Wholesalers 10.6 Blog 6/24/18
Sales for Retail and Food Services	Jan-May 2018/Jan-May 2017 ∆%: Retail and Food Services 5.2; Retail ∆% 5.4 Blog 6/24/18
Value of Construction Put in Place	SAAR month SA May ∆%: 0.4 Jan-May 18/Jan-May 17 NSA: 4.3 Earlier Data: Blog 4/5/15
Case-Shiller Home Prices	Apr 2018/Apr 2017 ∆% NSA: 10 Cities 11.0; 20 Cities: 6.6; National: 6.4 ∆% Apr SA: 10 Cities 0.1; 20 Cities: 0.2 Blog 7/1/18
FHFA House Price Index Purchases Only	Apr SA ∆% 0.1; 12-month NSA ∆%: 6.4 Blog 7/1/18
New House Sales	May 2018 month SAAR ∆%: 6.7 Jan-May 2018/Jan-May 2017 NSA ∆%: 8.9 Blog 7/1/18
Housing Starts and Permits	May Starts month SA ∆% 5.0; Permits ∆%: -4.6 Jan-May 2018/Jan-May 2017 NSA ∆% Starts 11.0; Permits ∆% 8.9 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Rate of Homeownership	IQ2018 64.2 IVQ2017: 64.2 Blog 5/13/18
Trade Balance	Balance Apr SA -$46,199 million versus Mar -$47,210 million Exports Apr SA ∆%: 0.3 Imports Apr SA ∆%: -0.2 Goods Exports Jan-Apr 2018/Jan-Apr 2018 NSA ∆%: 8.8 Goods Imports Jan-Apr 2018/Jan-Apr 2018 NSA ∆%: 9.4 Blog 6/10/18
Export and Import Prices	May 12-month NSA ∆%: Imports 4.3; Exports 4.3 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Consumer Credit	Apr ∆% annual rate: Total 2.9; Revolving 2.6; Nonrevolving 3.0 Earlier Data: Blog 5/10/15
Net Foreign Purchases of Long-term Treasury Securities	Apr Net Foreign Purchases of Long-term US Securities: $80.2 billion Major Holders of Treasury Securities: China $1181.9 billion; Japan $1031.2 billion; Total Foreign US Treasury Holdings Dec $6169.0 billion Blog 6/24/18
Treasury Budget	Fiscal Year 2018/2017 ∆% May: Receipts 2.6; Outlays 5.9; Individual Income Taxes 9.0 Deficit Fiscal Year 2011 $1,300 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2012 $1,087 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2013 $680 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2014 $485 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2015 $439 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2016 $586 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2017 $666 billion Blog 6/17/2018
CBO Budget and Economic Outlook	2012 Deficit $1087 B 6.8% GDP Debt $11,281 B 70.4% GDP 2013 Deficit $680 B, 4.1% GDP Debt $11,983 B 72.6% GDP 2014 Deficit $485 B 2.8% GDP Debt $12,780 B 74.2% GDP 2015 Deficit $438 B 2.5% GDP Debt $13,117 B 73.3% GDP 2016 Deficit $587 3.2% GDP Debt $14,168.4 B 77.0% GDP 2027 Deficit $1,408 B, 5.0 % GDP Debt $24,893 B 88.9% GDP 2047: Long-term Debt/GDP 150.0% Blog 8/26/12 11/18/12 2/10/13 9/22/13 2/16/14 8/24/14 9/14/14 3/1/15 6/21/15 1/3/16 4/10/16 7/24/16 1/8/17 4/2/17
Commercial Banks Assets and Liabilities	Apr 2018 SAAR ∆%: Securities -5.2 Loans 3.7 Cash Assets -51.4 Deposits 1.0 Blog 5/20/18
Flow of Funds Net Worth of Families and Nonprofits	IQ2018 ∆ since 2007 Assets +$35,412.1 BN Nonfinancial $6,529.4 BN Real estate $5,115.8 BN Financial +28,891.8 BN Net Worth +$34,353.3 BN Blog 6/24/18
Current Account Balance of Payments and Net International Investment Position	Current Account IQ2017 minus $96,860 MM % GDP 2.5 NIIP IVQ2017: Minus $7,846 B Blog 4/8/2018 6/24/2018
Collapse of United States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation	Blog 6/24/18
Squeeze of Economic Activity by Carry Trades	Blog 6/24/18
IMF View	World Real Economic Growth 2017 ∆% 3.7 Blog 4/29/18
Income, Poverty and Health Insurance in the United States	43.123 Million Below Poverty in 2015, 13.5% of Population Median Family Income CPI-2015 Adjusted $56,516 in 2015 back to 1999 Levels Uncovered by Health Insurance 28.966 Million in 2015 Blog 9/25/16
Monetary Policy and Cyclical Valuation of Risk Financial Assets	Blog 1/7/2018
Rules versus Discretionary Authorities in Monetary Policy	Blog 1/1/2017

Links to blog comments in Table USA : 7/1/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

6/24/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

6/17/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/fomc-increases-interest-rates-with.html

6/10/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

6/3/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/stronger-dollar-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/27/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/dollar-strengthening-world-inflation.html

5/20/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/dollar-revaluation-united-states_24.html

5/13/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

5/6/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

4/29/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/04/dollar-appreciation-mediocre-cyclical.html

4/22/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/04/rising-yields-world-inflation-waves.html

4/15/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/04/united-states-inflation-united-states.html

4/8/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/04/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

04/01/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_31.html

03/25/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/decreasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

03/18/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/united-states-inflation-united-states.html

3/11/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/twenty-three-million-unemployed-or.html

3/4/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

2/25/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

2/18/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/united-states-inflation-trend-or.html

2/11/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/collateral-effects-of-unwinding.html

2/4/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/twenty-four-million-unemployed-or.html

1/28/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/01/continuing-dollar-devaluation-mediocre.html

1/21/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/01/dollar-devaluation-and-increasing.html

1/7/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/01/twenty-three-million-unemployed-or.html

12/31/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/dollar-devaluation-cyclically.html

12/24/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_23.html

10/29/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/dollar-revaluation-and-increase-of.html

4/2/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/04/mediocre-cyclical-economic-growth-with.html

1/15/17 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/unconventional-monetary-policy-and.html

1/1/17 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/rules-versus-discretionary-authorities.html

12/25/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

10/16/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/10/imf-view-of-world-economy-and-finance.html

9/25/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/the-economic-outlook-is-inherently.html

7/24/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/unresolved-us-balance-of-payments.html

4/10/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/04/proceeding-cautiously-in-reducing.html

1/17/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/unconventional-monetary-policy-and.html

1/3/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/weakening-equities-and-dollar.html

10/11/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/10/interest-rate-policy-uncertainty-imf.html

6/21/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/fluctuating-financial-asset-valuations.html

5/10/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/quite-high-equity-valuations-and.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html

9/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitics-monetary-policy-and.html

8/24/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/monetary-policy-world-inflation-waves.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

9/22/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

2/10/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/united-states-unsustainable-fiscal.html

Motor vehicle sales and production in the US have been in long-term structural change. Table VA-1A provides the data on new motor vehicle sales and domestic car production in the US from 1990 to 2010. New motor vehicle sales grew from 14,137 thousand in 1990 to the peak of 17,806 thousand in 2000 or 29.5 percent. In that same period, domestic car production fell from 6,231 thousand in 1990 to 5,542 thousand in 2000 or -11.1 percent. New motor vehicle sales fell from 17,445 thousand in 2005 to 11,772 in 2010 or 32.5 percent while domestic car production fell from 4,321 thousand in 2005 to 2,840 thousand in 2010 or 34.3 percent. In Mar 2018, light vehicle sales accumulated to 4,110,545, which is higher by 1.9 percent relative to 4,032,790 a year earlier (http://www.motorintelligence.com/m_frameset.html). The seasonally adjusted annual rate of light vehicle sales in the US reached 17.47 million in Jun 2018, higher than 16.91 million in May 2018 and higher than 16.70 million in Jun 2017. (http://www.motorintelligence.com/m_frameset.html).

Table VA-1A, US, New Motor Vehicle Sales and Car Production, Thousand Units 7

	New Motor Vehicle Sales	New Car Sales and Leases	New Truck Sales and Leases	Domestic Car Production
1990	14,137	9,300	4,837	6,231
1991	12,725	8,589	4,136	5,454
1992	13,093	8,215	4,878	5,979
1993	14,172	8,518	5,654	5,979
1994	15,397	8,990	6,407	6,614
1995	15,106	8,536	6,470	6,340
1996	15,449	8,527	6,922	6,081
1997	15,490	8,273	7,218	5,934
1998	15,958	8,142	7,816	5,554
1999	17,401	8,697	8,704	5,638
2000	17,806	8,852	8,954	5,542
2001	17,468	8,422	9,046	4,878
2002	17,144	8,109	9,036	5,019
2003	16,968	7,611	9,357	4,510
2004	17,298	7,545	9,753	4,230
2005	17,445	7,720	9,725	4,321
2006	17,049	7,821	9,228	4,367
2007	16,460	7,618	8,683	3,924
2008	13,494	6,814	6.680	3,777
2009	10,601	5,456	5,154	2,247
2010	11,772	5,729	6,044	2,840

Source: US Census Bureau

http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/cats/wholesale_retail_trade/motor_vehicle_sales.html

Chart I-5 of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve provides output of motor vehicles and parts in the United States from 1972 to 2018. Output virtually stagnated since the late 1990s with recent increase.

Chart 1-5, US, Motor Vehicles and Parts Output, 1972-2018

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm

VB Japan. The GDP of Japan grew at 1.0 percent per year on average from 1991 to 2002, with the GDP implicit deflator falling at 0.8 percent per year on average. The average growth rate of Japan’s GDP was 4 percent per year on average from the middle of the 1970s to 1992 (Ito 2004). Low growth in Japan in the 1990s is commonly labeled as “the lost decade” (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 81-115). Table VB-GDP provides yearly growth rates of Japan’s GDP from 1995 to 2017. Growth weakened from 2.7 per cent in 1995 and 3.1 percent in 1996 to contractions of 1.1 percent in 1998 and 0.3 percent in 1999. Growth rates were below 2 percent with exception of 2.8 percent in 2000 and 2.2 percent in 2004. Japan’s GDP contracted sharply by 1.1 percent in 2008 and 5.4 percent in 2009. As in most advanced economies, growth was robust at 4.2 percent in 2010 but mediocre at minus 0.1 percent in 2011 because of the tsunami and 1.5 percent in 2012. Japan’s GDP grew 2.0 percent in 2013 and nearly stagnated in 2014 at 0.4. The GDP of Japan increased 1.4 percent in 2015 and 1.0 percent in 2016. Japan’s GDP increased at 1.7 percent in 2017. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). Japan’s real GDP in calendar year 2017 is 5.3 percent higher than in calendar year 2007. Japan’s real GDP grew 12.6 percent from the trough of 2009 to 2017 at the average yearly rate of 1.5 percent (http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html).

Table VB-GDP, Japan, Yearly Percentage Change of GDP ∆%

Calendar Year	∆%
1995	2.7
1996	3.1
1997	1.1
1998	-1.1
1999	-0.3
2000	2.8
2001	0.4
2002	0.1
2003	1.5
2004	2.2
2005	1.7
2006	1.4
2007	1.7
2008	-1.1
2009	-5.4
2010	4.2
2011	-0.1
2012	1.5
2013	2.0
2014	0.4
2015	1.4
2016	1.0
2017	1.7

Source: Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html

Table VB-BOJF provides the forecasts of economic activity and inflation in Japan by the majority of members of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, which is part of their Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf) with changes on Jul 21, 2015 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k150121a.pdf). For fiscal 2015, the forecast is of growth of GDP between 1.5 to 2.1 percent, with the all items CPI less fresh food 0.2 to 1.2 to 3.3 percent (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf). The critical difference is forecast of the CPI excluding fresh food of 0.2 to 1.2 percent in 2015 and 1.2 to 2.2 percent in 2016 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf). Consumer price inflation in Japan excluding fresh food was minus 0.4 percent in Mar 2014 and 2.2 percent in 12 months (http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1581.htm), significantly because of the increase of the tax on value added of consumption in Apr 2014. The new monetary policy of the Bank of Japan aims to increase inflation to 2 percent. These forecasts are biannual in Apr and Oct. The Cabinet Office, Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan released on Jan 22, 2013, a “Joint Statement of the Government and the Bank of Japan on Overcoming Deflation and Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130122c.pdf) with the important change of increasing the inflation target of monetary policy from 1 percent to 2 percent:

“The Bank of Japan conducts monetary policy based on the principle that the policy shall be aimed at achieving price stability, thereby contributing to the sound development of the national economy, and is responsible for maintaining financial system stability. The Bank aims to achieve price stability on a sustainable basis, given that there are various factors that affect prices in the short run.

The Bank recognizes that the inflation rate consistent with price stability on a sustainable basis will rise as efforts by a wide range of entities toward strengthening competitiveness and growth potential of Japan's economy make progress. Based on this recognition, the Bank sets the price stability target at 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index.

Under the price stability target specified above, the Bank will pursue monetary easing and aim to achieve this target at the earliest possible time. Taking into consideration that it will take considerable time before the effects of monetary policy permeate the economy, the Bank will ascertain whether there is any significant risk to the sustainability of economic growth, including from the accumulation of financial imbalances.”

The Bank of Japan also provided explicit analysis of its view on price stability in a “Background note regarding the Bank’s thinking on price stability” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/data/rel130123a1.pdf http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130123a.htm/). The Bank of Japan also amended “Principal terms and conditions for the Asset Purchase Program” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130122a.pdf): “Asset purchases and loan provision shall be conducted up to the maximum outstanding amounts by the end of 2013. From January 2014, the Bank shall purchase financial assets and provide loans every month, the amount of which shall be determined pursuant to the relevant rules of the Bank.”

Financial markets in Japan and worldwide were shocked by new bold measures of “quantitative and qualitative monetary easing” by the Bank of Japan (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The objective of policy is to “achieve the price stability target of 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) at the earliest possible time, with a time horizon of about two years” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The main elements of the new policy are as follows:

Monetary Base Control. Most central banks in the world pursue interest rates instead of monetary aggregates, injecting bank reserves to lower interest rates to desired levels. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has shifted back to monetary aggregates, conducting money market operations with the objective of increasing base money, or monetary liabilities of the government, at the annual rate of 60 to 70 trillion yen. The BOJ estimates base money outstanding at “138 trillion yen at end-2012) and plans to increase it to “200 trillion yen at end-2012 and 270 trillion yen at end 2014” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
Maturity Extension of Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds. Purchases of bonds will be extended even up to bonds with maturity of 40 years with the guideline of extending the average maturity of BOJ bond purchases from three to seven years. The BOJ estimates the current average maturity of Japanese government bonds (JGB) at around seven years. The BOJ plans to purchase about 7.5 trillion yen per month (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130404d.pdf). Takashi Nakamichi, Tatsuo Ito and Phred Dvorak, wiring on “Bank of Japan mounts bid for revival,” on Apr 4, 2013, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323646604578401633067110420.html), find that the limit of maturities of three years on purchases of JGBs was designed to avoid views that the BOJ would finance uncontrolled government deficits.
Seigniorage. The BOJ is pursuing coordination with the government that will take measures to establish “sustainable fiscal structure with a view to ensuring the credibility of fiscal management” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
Diversification of Asset Purchases. The BOJ will engage in transactions of exchange traded funds (ETF) and real estate investment trusts (REITS) and not solely on purchases of JGBs. Purchases of ETFs will be at an annual rate of increase of one trillion yen and purchases of REITS at 30 billion yen.
Bank Lending Facility and Growth Supporting Funding Facility. At the meeting on Feb 18, the Bank of Japan doubled the scale of these lending facilities to prevent their expiration in the near future (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140218a.pdf).

Table VB-BOJF provides the forecasts of economic activity and inflation in Japan by the majority of members of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, which is part of their Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1701b.pdf) with changes on Feb 1, 2017 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1604b.pdf). On Jun 19, 2015, the Bank of Japan announced a “New Framework for Monetary Policy Meetings,” which provides for quarterly release of the forecasts of the economy and prices beginning in Jan 2016 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/rel150619a.pdf). For fiscal 2015, the forecast is of growth of GDP between 0.7 to 0.7 percent, with the all items CPI less fresh food of 0.0 percent (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1604b.pdf). The critical difference is forecast of the CPI excluding fresh food of 0.0 to 0.2 percent in 2016 and 1.8 to 3.0 percent in 2017 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1604b.pdf). Consumer price inflation in Japan excluding fresh food was 0.1 percent in Mar 2016 and minus 0.3 percent in 12 months (http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1581.htm). The CPI increased significantly because of the increase of the tax on value added of consumption in Apr 2014. The new monetary policy of the Bank of Japan aims to increase inflation to 2 percent. These forecasts are biannual in Apr and Oct. The Cabinet Office, Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan released on Jan 22, 2013, a “Joint Statement of the Government and the Bank of Japan on Overcoming Deflation and Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130122c.pdf) with the important change of increasing the inflation target of monetary policy from 1 percent to 2 percent:

Monetary Base Control. Most central banks in the world pursue interest rates instead of monetary aggregates, injecting bank reserves to lower interest rates to desired levels. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has shifted back to monetary aggregates, conducting money market operations with the objective of increasing base money, or monetary liabilities of the government, at the annual rate of 60 to 70 trillion yen. The BOJ estimates base money outstanding at “138 trillion yen at end-2012) and plans to increase it to “200 trillion yen at end-2012 and 270 trillion yen at end 2014” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
Maturity Extension of Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds. Purchases of bonds will be extended even up to bonds with maturity of 40 years with the guideline of extending the average maturity of BOJ bond purchases from three to seven years. The BOJ estimates the current average maturity of Japanese government bonds (JGB) at around seven years. The BOJ plans to purchase about 7.5 trillion yen per month (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130404d.pdf). Takashi Nakamichi, Tatsuo Ito and Phred Dvorak, wiring on “Bank of Japan mounts bid for revival,” on Apr 4, 2013, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323646604578401633067110420.html), find that the limit of maturities of three years on purchases of JGBs was designed to avoid views that the BOJ would finance uncontrolled government deficits.
Seigniorage. The BOJ is pursuing coordination with the government that will take measures to establish “sustainable fiscal structure with a view to ensuring the credibility of fiscal management” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
Diversification of Asset Purchases. The BOJ will engage in transactions of exchange traded funds (ETF) and real estate investment trusts (REITS) and not solely on purchases of JGBs. Purchases of ETFs will be at an annual rate of increase of one trillion yen and purchases of REITS at 30 billion yen.
Bank Lending Facility and Growth Supporting Funding Facility. At the meeting on Feb 18, the Bank of Japan doubled the scale of these lending facilities to prevent their expiration in the near future (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140218a.pdf).
Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Negative Nominal Interest Rate. On January 29, 2016, the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan introduced a new policy to attain the “price stability target of 2 percent at the earliest possible time” (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2016/k160129a.pdf). The new framework consists of three dimensions: quantity, quality and interest rate. The interest rate dimension consists of rates paid to current accounts that financial institutions hold at the Bank of Japan of three tiers zero, positive and minus 0.1 percent. The quantitative dimension consists of increasing the monetary base at the annual rate of 80 trillion yen. The qualitative dimension consists of purchases by the Bank of Japan of Japanese government bonds (JGBs), exchange traded funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITS).
Quantitative and Qualitative Easing with Yield Curve Control. The Bank of Japan introduced a new approach, QQE with Yield Curve Control (“Quantitative and Qualitative Easing with Yield Curve Control”) at its policy meeting on Sep 21, 2016 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2016/k160921a.pdf). The policy consists of two measures. First “yield curve control” consists of controlling the long-term and short-term interest rates. The bank will fix the interest rates of policy balances held by financial institutions at the BOJ at minus 0.1 percent and will purchase Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) in the amount required to maintain the yield of the 10-year JGB at around zero percent. Second, “the inflation-overshooting commitment” consists of increasing base money to maintain the CPI price stability target above 2 percent.

Table VB-BOJF, Bank of Japan, Forecasts of the Majority of Members of the Policy Board, % Year on Year

Fiscal Year Date of Forecast	Real GDP	CPI All Items Less Fresh Food	Excluding Effects of Consumption Tax Hikes
2013
Apr 2014	+2.2 to +2.3 [+2.2]	+0.8
Jan 2014	+2.5 to +2.9 [+2.7]	+0.7 to +0.9 [+0.7]
Oct 2013	+2.6 to +3.0 [+2.7]	+0.6 to +1.0 [+0.7]
Jul 2013	+2.5 to +3.0 [+2.8]	+0.5 to +0.8 [+0.6]
2014
Apr 2015	-1.0 to -0.8 [-0.9]	+2.8	+0.8
Jan 2015	-0.6 to -0.4 [-0.5]	+2.9 to +3.2 [+2.9]	+0.9 to +1.2 [+0.9]
Oct 2014	+0.2 to +0.7 [+0.5]	+3.1 to +3.4 [+3.2]	+1.1 to +1.4 [+1.2]
Jul 2014	+0.6 to +1.3 [+1.0]	+3.2 to +3.5 [+3.3]	+1.2 to +1.5 [+1.3]
Apr 2014	+0.8 to +1.3 [+1.1]	+3.0 to +3.5 [+3.3]	+1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3]
Jan 2014	+0.9 to 1.5 [+1.4]	+2.9 to +3.6 [+3.3]	+0.9 to +1.6 [+1.3]
Oct 2013	+0.9 to +1.5 [+1.5]	+2.8 to +3.6 [+3.3]	+0.8 to +1.6 [+1.3]
Jul 2013	+0.8 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+2.7 to +3.6 [+3.3]	+0.7 to +1.6 [+1.3]
2015
Feb 2016	+0.7 to +0.7 [+0.7]	0.0
Jan 2016	+1.0 to +1.3 [+1.1]	0.0 to 0.2 [+0.1]
Oct 2015	+0.8 to +1.4 [+1.2]	0.0 to +0.4 [+0.1
Jul 2015	+1.5 to +1.9 [+1.7]	+0.3 to +1.0 [+0.7]
Apr 2015	+1.5 to +2.1 [+2.0]	+0.2 to 1.2 [+0.8]	+0.2 to 1.2 [+0.8]
Jan 2015	+1.8 to +2.3 [+2.1]	+0.4 to +1.3 [+1.0]	+0.4 to +1.3 [+1.0]
Oct 2014	+1.2 to +1.7 [+1.5]	+1.8 to 2.6 [+2.4]	+1.1 to +1.9 [+1.7]
Jul 2014	+1.2 to +1.6 [+1.5]	+1.9 to +2.8 [+2.6]	+1.2 to +2.1 [+1.9]
Apr 2014	+1.2 to +1.5 [+1.5]	+1.9 to +2.8 [+2.6]	+1.2 to +2.1 [+1.9]
Jan 2014	+1.2 to +1.8 [+1.5]	+1.7 to +2.9 [+2.6]	+1.0 to +2.2 [+1.9]
Oct 2013	+1.3 to +1.8 [+1.5]	+1.6 to +2.9 [+2.6]	+0.9 to +2.2 [+1.9]
Jul 2013	+1.3 to +1.9 [+1.5]	+1.6 to +2.9 [+2.6]	+0.9 to +2.2 [+1.9]
2016
Apr 2017	+1.4 to +1.4 [+1.4]	-0.3
Feb 2017	+1.2 to +1.5 [+1.4]	-0.2 to -0.1 [-0.2]
Jul 2016	+0.8 to +1.0 [+1.0]	0.0 to +0.3 [0.5]	0.0 to +0.3 [0.5]
Apr 2016	+0.8 to +1.4 [+1.2]	0.0 to +0.8 [+0.5]	0.0 to +0.8 [+0.5]
Jan 2016	+1.0 to +1.7 [+1.5]	0.2 to +1.2 [+0.8]
Oct 2015	+1.2 to +1.6 [+1.4]	+0.8 to +1.5 [+1.4]
Jul 2015	+1.5 to 1.7 [+1.5]	+1.2 to +2.1 [+1.9]
Apr 2015	+1.4 to +1.8 [+1.5]	+1.2 to +2.2 [+2.0]	+1.2 to +2.2 [+2.0]
Jan 2015	+1.5 to +1.7 [+1.6]	+1.5 to +2.3 [+2.2]	+1.5 to +2.3 [+2.2]
Oct 2014	+1.0 to +1.4 [+1.2]	+1.9 to 3.0 [+2.8]	+1.2 to 2.3 [+2.1]
Jul 2014	+1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+2.0 to +3.0 [+2.8]	+1.3 to +2.3 [+2.1]
Apr 2014	+1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+2.0 to +3.0 [+2.8]	+1.3 to +2.3 [+2.1]
2017
Apr 2017	+1.4 to +1.6 [+1.6]	+0.6 to +1.6 [+1.4]
Feb 2017	+1.3 to +1.6 [+1.5]	+0.8 to +1.6 [+1.5]
Jul 2016	1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+0.8 to +1.8 [+1.7]	+0.8 to +1.8 [+1.7]
Apr 2016	0.0 to + +0.3 [+0.1]	1.8 to +3.0 [+2.7]	0.8 to +2.0 [+1.7
Jan 2016	+0.1 to + 0.5 [+0.3]	+2.0 to +3.1 [+2.8]	+ 1.0 to +2.1 [+1.8]
Oct 2015	+0.1 to +0.5 [+0.3]	+2.5 to +3.4 [+3.1]	+1.2 to 2.1 [+1.8]
Jul 2015	+0.1 to +0.5 [+0.2]	+2.7 to +3.4 [+3.1]	+1.4 to +2.1 [+1.8]
Apr 2015	+0.1 to +0.5 [+0.2]	+2.7 to +3.4 [+3.2]	+1.4 to +2.1 [+1.9]
2018
Apr 2017	+1.1 to +1.3 [+1.3]	+0.8 to +1.9 [+1.7]
Feb 2017	+1.0 to +1.2 [+1.1]	+0.9 to +1.9 [+1.7]
Jul 2016	+0.8 to +1.0 [+0.9]	+1.0 to +2.0 [+1.9]	+1.0 to +2.0 [+1.9]
Apr 2016	+0.6 to +1.2 [+1.0]	+1.0 to +2.1 [+1.9]	+1.0 to +2.1 [+1.9]
2019
Apr 2017	+0.6 to +0.7 [+0.7]	+1.4 to +2.5 [+2.4]	+0.9 to +2.0 [+1.9]

Figures in brackets are the median of forecasts of Policy Board members

Source: Policy Board, Bank of Japan

Figures in brackets are the median of forecasts of Policy Board members

Source: Policy Board, Bank of Japan

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k150121a.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140715a.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1510b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1601b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1604b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1607b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1701b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1704b.pdf

The Nikkei Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI Index™ with the Flash Japan

Manufacturing PMI™ increased from 52.8 in May to 53.1 in Jun

(https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e1e8f580c2694adcaac7f3ad9ffe0b21). New export orders decreased. Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS

Markit, finds growth conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e1e8f580c2694adcaac7f3ad9ffe0b21).The Nikkei Composite Output PMI Index increased from 51.7 in May to 52.1 in Jun, indicating continuing business activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/06675700ab2648598325f642bf3f1a5e). The Nikkei Business Activity Index of Services increased to 51.4 in Jun from 51.0 in May (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/06675700ab2648598325f642bf3f1a5e). Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, finds continuing business activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/06675700ab2648598325f642bf3f1a5e). The Nikkei Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI™), seasonally adjusted, increased from 52.8 in May to 53.0 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/712c55aadb4c458ba6afa4fc9a62793f). New orders increased while new foreign orders contracted. Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, finds consistent conditions in manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/712c55aadb4c458ba6afa4fc9a62793f). Table JPY provides the country data table for Japan.

Table JPY, Japan, Economic Indicators

Historical GDP and CPI	1981-2010 Real GDP Growth and CPI Inflation 1981-2010 Blog 8/9/11 Table 26
Corporate Goods Prices	May ∆% 0.6 12 months ∆% 2.7 Blog 6/17/18
Consumer Price Index	May NSA ∆% -0.1; May 12 months NSA ∆% 0.7 Blog 6/24/18
Real GDP Growth	IQ2018 ∆%: -0.2 on IVQ2017; IQ2018 SAAR minus 0.6; ∆% from quarter a year earlier: 1.1 Blog 6/16/13 8/18/13 9/15/13 11/17/13 12/15/13 2/23/14 3/16/14 5/18/14 6/15/14 8/17/14 9/14/14 11/23/14 12/14/14 2/22/15 3/15/15 5/24/15 6/14/15 8/23/15 9/13/15 11/22/15 12/13/15 2/21/16 3/13/16 5/22/16 6/12/16 8/21/16 9/11/16 11/20/16 12/11/16 2/19/17 3/12/17 5/21/17 6/11/17 8/20/17 9/10/17 11/26/17 12/17/17 2/18/18 3/11/18 5/20/18 6/17/2018
Employment Report	May Unemployed 1.58 million Change in unemployed since last year: -520 thousand Unemployment rate: 2.2% Blog 7/8/18
All Industry Indices	Apr month SA ∆% 1.0 12-month NSA ∆% 1.5 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15
Industrial Production	May SA month ∆%: -0.2 May 12-month NSA ∆% 4.2 Earlier Data: Blog 3/29/15
Machine Orders	Total Mar ∆% -7.9 Private ∆%: -18.8 Mar ∆% Excluding Volatile Orders minus 3.9 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Tertiary Index	Apr month SA ∆% 1.0 Apr 12 months NSA ∆% 1.4 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15
Wholesale and Retail Sales	May 12 months: Total ∆%: 4.6 Wholesale ∆%: 6.6 Retail ∆%: 0.6 Earlier Data: Blog 3/29/15
Family Income and Expenditure Survey	Mar 12-month ∆% total nominal consumption 1.1, real -0.2 Earlier Data: Blog 3/29/15
Trade Balance	Exports May 12 months ∆%: 8.1 Imports May 12 months ∆% 14.0 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15

Links to blog comments in Table JPY: : 6/24/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

6/17/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/fomc-increases-interest-rates-with.html

6/3/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/stronger-dollar-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/27/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/dollar-strengthening-world-inflation.html

5/20/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/dollar-revaluation-united-states_24.html

5/6/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

4/29/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/04/dollar-appreciation-mediocre-cyclical.html

4/15/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/04/united-states-inflation-united-states.html

04/01/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_31.html

03/18/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/united-states-inflation-united-states.html

3/11/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/twenty-three-million-unemployed-or.html

3/4/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

2/18/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/united-states-inflation-trend-or.html

2/4/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/twenty-four-million-unemployed-or.html

1/21/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/01/dollar-devaluation-and-increasing.html

12/17/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/fomc-increases-interest-rates-with.html

9/10/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

8/20/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

5/21/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/dollar-devaluation-world-inflation.html

3/12/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/increasing-interest-rates-twenty-four.html

12/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/rising-values-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/20/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/interest-rate-increase-could-well.html

9/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/interest-rate-uncertainty-and-valuation.html

8/21/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/interest-rate-policy-uncertainty-and.html

6/12/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/considerable-uncertainty-about-economic.html

5/22/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/most-fomc-participants-judged-that-if.html

3/13/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/monetary-policy-and-fluctuations-of_13.html

12/13/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/liftoff-of-interest-rates-with-volatile_17.html

11/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-liftoff-followed-by.html

9/13/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what_13.html

08/23/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/global-decline-of-values-of-financial.html

6/14/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/volatility-of-financial-asset.html

5/24/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/interest-rate-policy-and-dollar.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

3/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

2/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html

12/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/global-financial-and-economic-risk.html

11/23/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.htm

9/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitics-monetary-policy-and.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

6/15/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financialgeopolitical-risks-recovery.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html

2/23/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html

12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

Table VB-1 provides the employment report of Japan in May 2018. The rate of unemployment not seasonally adjusted reached 2.3 percent, decreasing 0.8 percentage points from a year earlier. Population changed 0.0 percent from a year earlier. The labor force increased 1.5 percent from a year earlier and the labor participation rate stood at 61.7, increasing 0.9 percentage points from a year earlier. The employment rate moved to 60.3 percent, increasing 1.4 percentage points relative to a year earlier.

Table VB-1, Japan, Employment Report Apr 2018

May 2018 Unemployed	1.58 million
Change since last year	-520 thousand; ∆% -24.8
Unemployment rate	SA 2.2%, -0.3 from earlier month; NSA 2.3%, -0.8 from earlier year
Population ≥ 15 years	111.03 million
Change since last year	∆% 0.0
Labor Force	68.56 million
Change since last year	∆% 1.5
Employed	66.98 million
Change since last year	∆% 2.3
Labor force participation rate	61.7
Change since last year	0.9
Employment rate	60.3%
Change since last year	1.4

Source: Japan, Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications

http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/results/month/index.htm

Table VB-2 provides the rate of unemployment of Japan seasonally adjusted that decreased to 3.4 percent in Dec 2014 from 4.4 percent in Jul 2012. The rate of unemployment SA fell 0.8 percentage points from 3.0 percent in May 2017 to 2.2 percent in May 2018.

Table VB-2, Japan, Unemployment Rate, SA

	Unemployment Rate SA
May 2018	2.2
Apr	2.5
Mar	2.5
Feb	2.5
Jan	2.4
Dec 2017	2.7
Nov	2.7
Oct	2.8
Sep	2.8
Aug	2.8
Jul	2.8
Jun	2.8
May	3.0
Apr	2.8
Mar	2.8
Feb	2.9
Jan	3.0
Dec 2016	3.1
Nov	3.1
Oct	3.0
Sep	3.0
Aug	3.1
Jul	3.0
Jun	3.1
May	3.1
Apr	3.2
Mar	3.2
Feb	3.3
Jan	3.2
Dec 2015	3.3
Nov	3.3
Oct	3.2
Sep	3.4
Aug	3.4
Jul	3.4
Jun	3.4
May	3.3
Apr	3.4
Mar	3.4
Feb	3.5
Jan	3.5
Dec 2014	3.4
Nov	3.5
Oct	3.6
Sep	3.5
Aug	3.5
Jul	3.7
Jun	3.7
May	3.6
Apr	3.6
Mar	3.6
Feb	3.6
Jan	3.7
Dec 2013	3.7
Nov	3.9
Oct	4.0
Sep	4.0
Aug	4.1
Jul	3.8
Jun	3.9
May	4.1
Apr	4.1
Mar	4.1
Feb	4.3
Jan	4.2
Dec 2012	4.3
Nov	4.1
Oct	4.1
Sep	4.3
Aug	4.2
Jul	4.4
Jun	4.3
May	4.4

Source: Source: Japan, Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications

http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/results/month/index.htm

Chart VB-1 of Japan’s Statistics Bureau at the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications provides the unemployment rate of Japan from 2014 to 2017. There is clear trend of decline with multiple oscillations and increase in Jun-Jul 2014. The rate increased in Sep 2014 and fell in Oct 2014, stabilizing in Nov 2014 and declining in Dec 2014. The rate decreased in Feb-Apr 2015, stabilizing in May 2015. The rate increased in Jun 2015 and fell in Jul 2015, increasing in Aug 2015 and stabilizing in Sep 2015. The rate fell in Oct 2015, increasing in Nov 2015, remaining unchanged in Dec 2015 and decreasing in Jan 2016. The rate increased in Feb 2016 and decreased in Mar 2016, stabilizing in Apr-May 2016. The rate decreased in Jun-Jul 2016, increasing in Aug 2016. The rate decreased in Sep 2016, stabilizing in Oct 2016. The rate increased in Nov 2016 and stabilized in Dec 2016, decreasing in Jan-Feb 2017. The rate stabilized in Apr 2017, increasing in May 2017 and decreasing in Jun 2017. The rate stabilized in Jul-Oct 2017, decreasing in Nov 2017. The rate increased in Dec 2017, decreasing in Jan 2018. The rate increased in Feb 2018 and stabilized in Mar-Apr 2018, decreasing in May 2018.

Chart VB-1, Japan, Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: Japan, Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications

http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/results/month/index.htm

During the “lost decade” of the 1990s from 1991 to 2002 (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 82-3), Japan’s GDP grew at the average yearly rate of 1.0 percent, the CPI at 0.1 percent and the implicit deflator at minus 0.8 percent. Japan’s growth rate from the mid-1970s to 1992 was 4 percent (Ito 2004). Table VB-3 provides Japan’s rates of unemployment, participation in labor force and employment for selected years from 1953 to 1985 and yearly from 1990 to 2016. The rate of unemployment jumped from 2.1 percent in 1991 to 5.4 percent in 2002, which was a year of global economic weakness. The participation rate dropped from 64.0 percent in 1992 to 61.2 percent in 2002 and the employment rate fell from 62.6 percent in 1992 to 57.9 percent in 2002. The rate of unemployment rose from 3.9 percent in 2007 to 5.1 percent in 2010, falling to 4.6 percent in 2011, 4.3 percent in 2012 and 3.6 percent in 2014. The rate of unemployment fell to 3.4 percent in 2015 and 3.1 percent in 2016. The unemployment rate fell to 2.8 percent in 2017. The participation rate fell from 60.4 percent in 2007 to 59.6 percent in 2010, falling to 59.3 percent in 2011 and 59.1 in 2012 and increasing to 59.4 percent in 2014. The participation rate increased to 59.6 in 2015 and 60.0 in 2016, increasing to 60.5 in 2017. The employment rate fell from 58.1 in percent in 2007 to 56.6 percent in 2010 and 56.5 percent in 2011 and 2012, increasing to 57.3 percent in 2014. The employment rate increased to 57.6 in 2015 and 58.1 in 2016. The employment rate increased to 58.8 in 2017. The global recession adversely affected labor markets in advanced economies.

Table VB-3, Japan, Rates of Unemployment, Participation in Labor Force and Employment, %

	Participation Rate	Employment Rate	Unemployment Rate
1953	70.0	68.6	1.9
1960	69.2	68.0	1.7
1965	65.7	64.9	1.2
1970	65.4	64.6	1.1
1975	63.0	61.9	1.9
1980	63.3	62.0	2.0
1985	63.0	61.4	2.6
1990	63.3	61.9	2.1
1991	63.8	62.4	2.1
1992	64.0	62.6	2.2
1993	63.8	62.2	2.5
1994	63.6	61.8	2.9
1995	63.4	61.4	3.2
1996	63.5	61.4	3.4
1997	63.7	61.5	3.4
1998	63.3	60.7	4.1
1999	62.9	59.9	4.7
2000	62.4	59.5	4.7
2001	62.0	58.9	5.0
2002	61.2	57.9	5.4
2003	60.8	57.6	5.3
2004	60.4	57.6	4.7
2005	60.4	57.7	4.4
2006	60.4	57.9	4.1
2007	60.4	58.1	3.9
2008	60.2	57.8	4.0
2009	59.9	56.9	5.1
2010	59.6	56.6	5.1
2011	59.3	56.5	4.6
2012	59.1	56.5	4.3
2013	59.3	56.9	4.0
2014	59.4	57.3	3.6
2015	59.6	57.6	3.4
2016	60.0	58.1	3.1
2017	60.5	58.8	2.8

Source: Japan, Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications

http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/results/month/index.htm

VC China. China estimates an index of nonmanufacturing purchasing managers based on a sample of 1200 nonmanufacturing enterprises across the country (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Table CIPMNM provides this index and components. The total index increased from 55.7 in Jan 2011 to 58.0 in Mar 2012, decreasing to 53.9 in Aug 2013. The index decreased from 56.0 in Nov 2013 to 54.6 in Dec 2013, easing to 53.4 in Jan 2014. The index moved to 54.4 in Feb 2018. The index of new orders increased from 52.2 in Jan 2012 to 54.3 in Dec 2012 but fell to 50.1 in May 2013, barely above the neutral frontier of 50.0. The index of new orders stabilized at 51.0 in Nov-Dec 2013, easing to 50.9 in Jan 2014. The index of new orders moved to 50.5 in Feb 2018.

Table CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted

	Total Index	New Orders	Interm. Input Prices	Subs Prices	Exp
Feb 2018	54.4	50.5	53.2	49.9	61.2
Jan	55.3	51.9	53.9	52.6	61.7
Dec 2017	55.0	52.0	54.8	52.6	60.9
Nov	54.8	51.8	56.2	52.8	61.6
Oct	54.3	51.1	54.3	51.6	60.6
Sep	55.4	52.3	56.1	51.7	61.7
Aug	53.4	50.9	54.4	51.5	61.0
Jul	54.5	51.1	53.1	50.9	61.1
Jun	54.9	51.4	51.2	49.3	61.1
May	54.5	50.9	51.1	48.8	60.2
Apr	54.0	50.5	51.7	50.2	59.7
Mar	55.1	51.9	52.3	49.7	61.3
Feb	54.2	51.2	53.7	51.4	62.4
Jan	54.6	51.3	55.1	51.0	58.9
Dec 2016	54.5	52.1	56.2	51.9	59.5
Nov	54.7	51.8	53.5	51.4	60.7
Oct	54.0	50.9	53.7	51.5	60.6
Sep	53.7	51.4	51.7	50.1	61.1
Aug	53.5	49.8	52.6	50.4	59.4
Jul	53.9	49.9	51.4	49.5	59.5
Jun	53.7	50.8	51.6	50.6	58.6
May	53.1	49.2	51.6	49.8	57.8
Apr	53.5	48.7	52.1	49.1	59.1
Mar	53.8	50.8	51.4	49.5	59.0
Feb	52.7	48.7	50.5	48.3	59.5
Jan	53.5	49.6	49.9	47.7	58.4
Dec2015	54.4	51.7	49.0	48.2	58.3
Nov	53.6	50.2	49.3	47.7	60.0
Oct	53.1	51.2	51.2	48.8	61.1
Sep	53.4	50.2	50.8	47.9	60.0
Aug	53.4	49.6	49.6	47.8	59.7
Jul	53.9	50.1	48.9	47.4	60.0
Jun	53.8	51.3	50.6	48.7	59.7
May	53.2	49.5	52.8	50.4	60.1
Apr	53.4	49.1	50.8	48.9	60.0
Mar	53.7	50.3	50.0	48.4	58.8
Feb	53.9	51.2	52.5	51.2	58.7
Jan	53.7	50.2	47.6	46.9	59.6
Dec 2014	54.1	50.5	50.1	47.3	59.5
Nov	53.9	50.1	50.6	47.7	59.7
Oct	53.8	51.0	52.0	48.8	59.9
Sep	54.0	49.5	49.8	47.3	60.9
Aug	54.4	50.0	52.2	48.3	61.2
Jul	54.2	50.7	53.4	49.5	61.5
Jun	55.0	50.7	56.0	50.8	60.4
May	55.5	52.7	54.5	49.0	60.7
Apr	54.8	50.8	52.4	49.4	61.5
Mar	54.5	50.8	52.8	49.5	61.5
Feb	55.0	51.4	52.1	49.0	59.9
Jan	53.4	50.9	54.5	50.1	58.1
Dec 2013	54.6	51.0	56.9	52.0	58.7
Nov	56.0	51.0	54.8	49.5	61.3
Oct	56.3	51.6	56.1	51.4	60.5
Sep	55.4	53.4	56.7	50.6	60.1
Aug	53.9	50.9	57.1	51.2	62.9
Jul	54.1	50.3	58.2	52.4	63.9
Jun	53.9	50.3	55.0	50.6	61.8
May	54.3	50.1	54.4	50.7	62.9
Apr	54.5	50.9	51.1	47.6	62.5
Mar	55.6	52.0	55.3	50.0	62.4
Feb	54.5	51.8	56.2	51.1	62.7
Jan	56.2	53.7	58.2	50.9	61.4
Dec 2012	56.1	54.3	53.8	50.0	64.6
Nov	55.6	53.2	52.5	48.4	64.6
Oct	55.5	51.6	58.1	50.5	63.4
Sep	53.7	51.8	57.5	51.3	60.9
Aug	56.3	52.7	57.6	51.2	63.2
Jul	55.6	53.2	49.7	48.7	63.9
Jun	56.7	53.7	52.1	48.6	65.5
May	55.2	52.5	53.6	48.5	65.4
Apr	56.1	52.7	57.9	50.3	66.1
Mar	58.0	53.5	60.2	52.0	66.6
Feb	57.3	52.7	59.0	51.2	63.8
Jan	55.7	52.2	58.2	51.1	65.3

Notes: Interm.: Intermediate; Subs: Subscription; Exp: Business Expectations

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart CIPMNM provides China’s nonmanufacturing purchasing managers’ index. The index fell from 56.0 in Oct 2013 to 54.4 in Feb 2018.

Chart CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Table CIPMMFG provides the index of purchasing managers of manufacturing seasonally adjusted of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The general index (IPM) rose from 50.5 in Jan 2012 to 53.3 in Apr 2012, falling to 49.2 in Aug 2012, rebounding to 50.6 in Dec 2012. The index fell to 50.3 in Jul 2013, barely above the neutral frontier at 50.0, recovering to 51.4 in Nov 2013 but falling to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.5 in Jan 2014, 50.1 in Dec 2014 and 51.3 in Mar 2018. The index of new orders fell from 54.5 in Apr 2012 to 51.2 in Dec 2012. The index of new orders fell from 52.3 in Nov 2013 to 52.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.9 in Jan 2014 and moved to 50.4 in Dec 2014. The index moved to 53.3 in Mar 2018.

Table CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted

	IPM	PI	NOI	INV	EMP	SDEL
2018
Mar	51.3	53.1	53.3	49.6	49.1	50.1
Feb	50.3	50.7	51.0	49.3	48.1	48.4
Jan	51.3	53.5	52.6	48.8	48.3	49.2
2017
Dec	51.6	54.0	53.4	48.0	48.5	49.3
Nov	51.8	54.3	53.6	48.4	48.8	49.5
Oct	51.6	53.4	52.9	48.6	49.0	48.7
Sep	52.4	54.7	54.8	48.9	49.0	49.3
Aug	51.7	54.1	53.1	48.3	49.1	49.3
Jul	51.4	53.5	52.8	48.5	49.2	50.1
Jun	51.7	54.4	53.1	48.6	49.0	49.9
May	51.2	53.4	52.3	48.5	49.4	50.2
Apr	51.2	53.8	52.3	48.3	49.2	50.5
Mar	51.8	54.2	53.3	48.3	50.0	50.3
Feb	51.6	53.7	53.0	48.6	49.7	50.5
Jan	51.3	53.1	52.8	48.0	49.2	49.8
2016
Dec	51.4	53.3	53.2	48.0	48.9	50.0
Nov	51.7	53.9	53.2	48.4	49.2	49.7
Oct	51.2	53.3	52.8	48.1	48.8	50.2
Sep	50.4	52.8	50.9	47.4	48.6	49.9
Aug	50.4	52.6	51.3	47.6	48.4	50.6
Jul	49.9	52.1	50.4	47.3	48.2	50.5
Jun	50.0	52.5	50.5	47.0	47.9	50.7
May	50.1	52.3	50.7	47.6	48.2	50.4
Apr	50.1	52.2	51.0	47.4	47.8	50.1
Mar	50.2	52.3	51.4	48.2	48.1	51.3
Feb	49.0	50.2	48.6	48.0	47.6	49.8
Jan	49.4	51.4	49.5	46.8	47.8	50.5
2015
Dec	49.7	52.2	50.2	47.6	47.4	50.7
Nov	49.6	51.9	49.8	47.1	47.6	50.6
Oct	49.8	52.2	50.3	47.2	47.8	50.6
Sep	49.8	52.3	50.2	47.5	47.9	50.8
Aug	49.7	51.7	49.7	48.3	47.9	50.6
Jul	50.0	52.4	49.9	48.4	48.0	50.4
Jun	50.2	52.9	50.1	48.7	48.1	50.3
May	50.2	52.9	50.6	48.2	48.2	50.9
Apr	50.1	52.6	50.2	48.2	48.0	50.4
Mar	50.1	52.1	50.2	48.0	48.4	50.1
Feb	49.9	51.4	50.4	48.2	47.8	49.9
Jan	49.8	51.7	50.2	47.3	47.9	50.2
2014
Dec	50.1	52.2	50.4	47.5	48.1	49.9
Nov	50.3	52.5	50.9	47.7	48.2	50.3
Oct	50.8	53.1	51.6	48.4	48.4	50.1
Sep	51.1	53.6	52.2	48.8	48.2	50.1
Aug	51.1	53.2	52.5	48.6	48.2	50.0
Jul	51.7	54.2	53.6	49.0	48.3	50.2
Jun	51.0	53.0	52.8	48.0	48.6	50.5
May	50.8	52.8	52.3	48.0	48.2	50.3
Apr	50.4	52.5	51.2	48.1	48.3	50.1
Mar	50.3	52.7	50.6	47.8	48.3	49.8
Feb	50.2	52.6	50.5	47.4	48.0	49.9
Jan	50.5	53.0	50.9	47.8	48.2	49.8
Dec 2013	51.0	53.9	52.0	47.6	48.7	50.5
Nov	51.4	54.5	52.3	47.8	49.6	50.6
Oct	51.4	54.4	52.5	48.6	49.2	50.8
Sep	51.1	52.9	52.8	48.5	49.1	50.8
Aug	51.0	52.6	52.4	48.0	49.3	50.4
Jul	50.3	52.4	50.6	47.6	49.1	50.1
Jun	50.1	52.0	50.4	47.4	48.7	50.3
May	50.8	53.3	51.8	47.6	48.8	50.8
Apr	50.6	52.6	51.7	47.5	49.0	50.8
Mar	50.9	52.7	52.3	47.5	49.8	51.1
Feb	50.1	51.2	50.1	49.5	47.6	48.3
Jan	50.4	51.3	51.6	50.1	47.8	50.0
Dec 2012	50.6	52.0	51.2	47.3	49.0	48.8
Nov	50.6	52.5	51.2	47.9	48.7	49.9
Oct	50.2	52.1	50.4	47.3	49.2	50.1
Sep	49.8	51.3	49.8	47.0	48.9	49.5
Aug	49.2	50.9	48.7	45.1	49.1	50.0
Jul	50.1	51.8	49.0	48.5	49.5	49.0
Jun	50.2	52.0	49.2	48.2	49.7	49.1
May	50.4	52.9	49.8	45.1	50.5	49.0
Apr	53.3	57.2	54.5	48.5	51.0	49.6
Mar	53.1	55.2	55.1	49.5	51.0	48.9
Feb	51.0	53.8	51.0	48.8	49.5	50.3
Jan	50.5	53.6	50.4	49.7	47.1	49.7

IPM: Index of Purchasing Managers; PI: Production Index; NOI: New Orders Index; EMP: Employed Person Index; SDEL: Supplier Delivery Time Index

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

China estimates the manufacturing index of purchasing managers on the basis of a sample of 820 enterprises (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Chart CIPMMFG provides the manufacturing index of purchasing managers. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013. The index decreased from 51.4 in Nov 2013 to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index moved to 51.5 in Mar 2018.

Chart CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Table VC-GDP China, Quarterly Growth of GDP, Current CNY 100 Million and Inflation Adjusted ∆%

Cumulative GDP IQ2018	Value Current CNY Billion IQ2018	Value Current CNY Billion IVQ2017 to IQ2018	IQ2018 Year-on-Year Constant Prices ∆%	Cumulative to IQ2018 ∆%
GDP	19,878.3	19,878.3	6.8	6.8
Primary Industry	890.4	890.4	3.2	3.2
Farming	933.3	933.3	3.4	3.4
Secondary Industry	7,745.1	7,745.1	6.3	6.3
Industry	6,811.7	6,811.7	6.5	6.5
Construction	958.3	958.3	5.4	5.4
Tertiary Industry	11,242.8	11,242.8	7.5	7.5
Transport, Storage, Post	886.1	886.1	7.7	7.7
Wholesale and Retail Trades	1,944.8	1,944.8	6.8	6.8
Accommodation and Restaurants	374.7	374.7	7.1	7.1
Finance	1,782.4	1,782.4	2.9	2.9
Real Estate	1,384.5	1,384.5	4.9	4.9
Other	3,410.8	3,410.8	6.1	6.1
Growth in Quarter Relative to Prior Quarter	∆% on Prior Quarter		∆% Annual Equivalent	∆% Year-on-Year
2018
IQ2018	1.4		5.7	6.8
2017
IVQ2017	1.6		6.6	6.8
IIIQ2017	1.8		7.4	6.8
IIQ2017	1.8		7.4	6.9
IQ2017	1.5		6.1	6.9
2016
IVQ2016	1.6		6.6	6.8
IIIQ2016	1.8		7.4	6.7
IIQ2016	2.0		8.2	6.7
IQ2016	1.3		5.3	6.7
2015
IVQ2015	1.5		6.1	6.8
IIIQ2015	1.7		7.0	6.9
IIQ2015	1.7		7.0	7.0
IQ2015	1.7		7.0	7.0
2014
IVQ2014	1.7		7.0	7.2
IIIQ2014	1.8		7.4	7.1
IIQ2014	1.8		7.4	7.5
IQ2014	1.7		7.0	7.4
2013
IVQ2013	1.6		6.6	7.7
IIIQ2013	2.1		8.7	7.9
IIQ2013	1.7		7.0	7.6
IQ2013	1.9		7.8	7.9
2012
IVQ2012	2.0		8.2	8.1
IIIQ2012	1.8		7.4	7.5
IIQ2012	2.1		8.7	7.6
IQ2012	1.9		7.8	8.1
2011
IVQ2011	1.5		6.1	8.8
IIIQ2011	1.9		7.8	9.4
IIQ2011	2.4		10.0	10.0
IQ2011	2.4		10.0	10.2

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Growth of China’s GDP in IQ2018 relative to the same period in 2017 was 6.8 percent and cumulative growth to IQ2018 was 6.8 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDP. Secondary industry accounts for 39.0 percent of cumulative GDP in IQ2018. In cumulative IQ2018, industry accounts for 34.3 percent of GDP and construction for 4.8 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 56.6 percent of cumulative GDP in IQ2018 and primary industry for 4.5 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is shifting to lower growth rates with improvement in living standards by increasing growth of services. Table VC-GDPA shows that growth decelerated from 12.1 percent in IQ2010 and 11.2 percent in IIQ2010 to 7.9 percent in IQ2013, 7.6 percent in IIQ2013 and 7.9 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP grew 7.7 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 1.6 percent relative to IIIQ2013, which is equivalent to 6.6 percent per year. GDP grew 7.4 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.7 percent in IQ2014 that is equivalent to 7.0 percent per year. GDP grew 7.5 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is annual equivalent 7.4 percent. In IIIQ2014, GDP grew 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is 7.4 percent in annual equivalent. GDP grew 1.7 percent in IVQ2014, which is 7.0 percent in annual equivalent and 7.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2015, GDP grew 1.7 percent, which is equivalent to 7.0 in a year and 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 1.7 percent in IIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent in a year, and grew 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.7 percent in IIIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent in a year, and grew 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.5 percent in IVQ2015, which is equivalent to 6.1 percent in a year and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, GDP grew at 1.3 percent, which is equivalent to 5.3 percent in a year, and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 2.0 percent in IIQ2016, which is annual equivalent to 8.2 percent, and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, GDP grew at 1.8 percent, which is equivalent to 7.4 percent in a year and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, GDP grew at 1.6 percent, equivalent to 6.6 percent in a year, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 6.9 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased at 1.5 percent, which is 6.1 percent in annual equivalent. In IIQ2017, GDP grew at 1.8 percent, which is annual equivalent at 7.4 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.8 percent in IIIQ2017, which is annual equivalent at 7.4 percent, and increased at 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, GDP grew 1.6 percent, which is equivalent to 6.6 percent annual equivalent, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.4 percent in IQ2018, which is annual equivalent at 5.7 percent, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier.

Table VC-GDPA China, Growth Rate of GDP, ∆% Relative to a Year Earlier and ∆% Relative to Prior Quarter

	IQ2018
GDP	6.8
Primary Industry	3.2
Secondary Industry	6.3
Tertiary Industry	7.5
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.4 (5.7)
	IQ2017	IIQ2017	IIIQ2017	IVQ2017
GDP	6.9	6.9	6.8	6.8
Primary Industry	3.0	3.8	3.9	4.4
Secondary Industry	6.4	6.4	6.0	5.7
Tertiary Industry	7.7	7.6	8.0	8.3
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.5 (6.1)	1.8 (7.4)	1.8 (7.4)	1.6 (6.6)

	IQ2015	IIQ2015	IIIQ2015	IVQ2015	IQ2016	IIQ2016	IIIQ2016	IVQ2016
GDP	7.0	7.0	6.9	6.8	6.7	6.7	6.7	6.8
Primary Industry	3.2	3.5	3.8	4.1	2.9	3.1	3.5	2.9
Secondary Industry	6.4	6.1	6.0	6.1	5.8	6.3	6.1	6.1
Tertiary Industry	7.9	8.4	8.4	8.2	7.6	7.5	7.6	8.3
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.7 (7.0)	1.7 (7.0)	1.7 (7.0)	1.5 (6.1)	1.3 (5.3)	2.0 (8.2)	1.8 (7.4)	1.6 (6.6)
	IQ 2013	IIQ 2013	IIIQ 2013	IVQ 2013	IQ 2014	IIQ 2014	IIIQ 2014	IVQ 2014
GDP	7.9	7.6	7.9	7.7	7.4	7.5	7.1	7.2
Primary Industry	3.4	3.0	3.4	4.0	3.5	3.9	4.2	4.1
Secondary Industry	7.8	7.6	7.8	7.8	7.3	7.4	7.4	7.3
Tertiary Industry	8.3	8.3	8.4	8.3	7.1	8.0	7.9	8.1
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.9 (7.8)	1.7 (7.0)	2.1 (8.7)	1.6 (6.6)	1.7 (7.0)	1.8 (7.4)	1.8 (7.4)	1.7 (7.0)
	IQ 2011	IIQ 2011	IIIQ 2011	IVQ 2011	IQ 2012	IIQ 2012	IIIQ 2012	IVQ 2012
GDP	10.2	10.0	9.4	8.8	8.1	7.6	7.5	8.1
Primary Industry	3.5	3.2	3.8	4.5	3.8	4.3	4.2	4.5
Secondary Industry	11.1	11.0	10.8	10.6	9.1	8.3	8.1	8.1
Tertiary Industry	9.1	9.2	9.0	8.9	7.5	7.7	7.9	8.1
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	2.4 (10.0)	2.4 (10.0)	1.9 (7.8)	1.5 (6.1)	1.9 (7.8)	2.1 (8.7)	1.8 (7.4)	2.0 (8.2)
	IQ 2010	IIQ 2010	IIIQ 2010	IVQ 2010
GDP	12.1	11.2	10.7	12.1
Primary Industry	3.8	3.6	4.0	3.8
Secondary Industry	14.5	13.3	12.6	14.5
Tertiary Industry	10.5	9.9	9.7	10.5

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Growth of China’s GDP in IVQ2016 relative to the same period in 2016 was 6.8 percent and

Chart VC-GDP of the National Bureau of Statistics of China provides annual value and growth rates of GDP. China’s GDP growth in 2016 is still high at 6.7 percent but at the lowest rhythm in five years.

Chart VC-GDP, China, Gross Domestic Product, Million Yuan and ∆%

Source: National bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart VC-FXR provides China’s foreign exchange reserves. FX reserves grew from $2399.2 billion in 2009 to $38430 billion in 2013 driven by high growth of China’s trade surplus, decreasing to $30105 billion in 2016.

Chart VC-FXR, China, Foreign Exchange Reserves, 2012-2016

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Chart VC-Trade provides China’s imports and exports. Exports exceeded imports with resulting large trade balance surpluses that increased foreign exchange reserves.

Chart VC-Trade, China, Imports and Exports of Goods, 2012-2016, $100 Million US Dollars

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Chart VC-PCDI provides the level and growth rates of per capita disposable income in China.

Chart VC-PCDI, China, Level and Growth Rates of Per Capita Disposable Income

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

The Caixin Flash China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) compiled by Markit (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/883014a121534f51bc42e5060845f727) is mixed. The overall Flash Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI^™ decreased from 47.3 in Aug to 47.0 in Sep, while the Flash Caixin China General Manufacturing Output Index decreased from 46.4 in Aug to 45.7 in Aug, indicating weaker conditions. He Fan, Chief Economist at Caixin Insight Group finds need of fiscal and monetary policy (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/883014a121534f51bc42e5060845f727). The Caixin China General Services PMI^™, compiled by Markit, shows that the Caixin Composite Output, combining manufacturing and services, increased from 52.3 in May to 53.0 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f3def1f2fa794521a71c09853d7b057e). Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at CEBM Group, finds consistent activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f3def1f2fa794521a71c09853d7b057e). The Caixin General Manufacturing PMI^™ decreased to 51.0 in Jun from 51.1 in May, indicating growth conditions in manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/2867afa4ebb0445a9b533764673f11ee). Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at CEBM Group, finds consistent conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/2867afa4ebb0445a9b533764673f11ee). Table CNY provides the country data table for China.

Table CNY, China, Economic Indicators

Price Indexes for Industry	May 12-month ∆%: 4.1 May month ∆%: 0.4 Blog 6/17/18
Consumer Price Index	May12-month ∆%: 1.8 May month ∆%: -0.2 Blog 6/17/18
Value Added of Industry	May month ∆%: 0.58 Jan-May 2018/Jan-May 2017 ∆%: 6.9 Earlier Data Blog 4/19/15
GDP Growth Rate	Year IQ2018 ∆%: 6.8 I Quarter 2018 ∆%: 1.4 Quarter IQ2018 AE ∆%: 5.7 Blog 4/29/18
Investment in Fixed Assets	Total Jan-May 2018 ∆%: 6.1 Real estate development: 10.2 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Retail Sales	May month ∆%: 0.29 May 12M ∆%: 9.4 Jan-May 2018 ∆%: 9.7 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Trade Balance	May 2018 balance 24.92 billion Exports 12M ∆% 12.6 Imports 12M ∆% 26.0 May 2017 balance $40.51 billion 2017 Exports ∆% 7.9 2017 Imports ∆% 15.9 2016 Exports ∆% 11.3 2016 Imports ∆% 17.3 Cumulative Dec 2017: $422.50 billion Cumulative Dec 2016: $486.0 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15

Links to blog comments in Table CNY: 6/17/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/fomc-increases-interest-rates-with.html

5/20/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/dollar-revaluation-united-states_24.html

4/29/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/04/dollar-appreciation-mediocre-cyclical.html

4/15/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/04/united-states-inflation-united-states.html

03/18/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/united-states-inflation-united-states.html

1/21/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/01/dollar-devaluation-and-increasing.html

1/14/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/01/dollar-devaluation-and-rising.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

VD Euro Area. Using calendar and seasonally adjusted data (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of the euro area (19 countries) fell 5.7 percent from IQ2008 to IIQ2009. The GDP of the euro area (19 countries) increased 8.6 percent from IIIQ2009 to IVQ2016 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.1 percent. The GDP of the euro area (19 countries) is higher by 2.4 percent in IVQ2016 relative to the pre-recession peak in IQ2008, growing at annual equivalent rate of 0.3 percent. The GDP of the euro area (18) countries increased at the average yearly rate of 2.3 percent from IQ1999 to IQ2008 while that of the euro area (19 countries) increased at 2.3 percent. Table VD-EUR provides yearly growth rates of the combined GDP of the members of the European Monetary Union (EMU) or euro area since 1999. Growth was very strong at 3.2 percent in 2006 and 3.0 percent in 2007. The global recession had strong impact with growth of only 0.4 percent in 2008 and decline of 4.5 percent in 2009. Recovery was at lower growth rates of 2.1 percent in 2010 and 1.5 percent in 2011. EUROSTAT estimates growth of GDP of the euro area of minus 0.9 percent in 2012 and minus 0.3 percent in 2013. Euro Area GDP grew 1.2 percent in 2014 and grew 2.0 percent in 2015. The GDP of the euro area grew 1.7 percent in 2016.

Table VD-EUR, Euro Area, Yearly Percentage Change of Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, Unemployment and GDP ∆%

Year	HICP ∆%	Unemployment %	GDP ∆%
1999	1.2	9.7	3.0
2000	2.2	8.9	3.8
2001	2.4	8.3	2.1
2002	2.3	8.6	1.0
2003	2.1	9.1	0.7
2004	2.2	9.3	2.3
2005	2.2	9.1	1.7
2006	2.2	8.4	3.2
2007	2.2	7.5	3.0
2008	3.3	7.6	0.4
2009	0.3	9.6	-4.5
2010	1.6	10.2	2.1
2011	2.7	10.2	1.5
2012	2.5	11.4	-0.9
2013	1.3	12.0	-0.3
2014	0.4	11.6	1.2
2015	0.0	10.9	2.0
2016	0.2	10.0	1.7

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

The GDP of the euro area in 2015 in current US dollars in the dataset of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is $11,990.9 billion or 16.3 percent of world GDP of $73,598.8 billion (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/02/weodata/index.aspx). The sum of the GDP of France $2420.2 billion with the GDP of Germany of $3365.3 billion, Italy of $1815.8 billion and Spain $1199.7 billion is $8,801.0 billion or 73.4 percent of total euro area GDP and 13.1 percent of World GDP. The four largest economies account for slightly more than three quarters of economic activity of the euro area. Table VD-EUR1 is constructed with the dataset of EUROSTAT, providing growth rates of the euro area as a whole and of the largest four economies of Germany, France, Italy and Spain annually from 1996 to 2016. The impact of the global recession on the overall euro area economy and on the four largest economies was quite strong. There was sharp contraction in 2009 and growth rates have not rebounded to earlier growth with exception of Germany in 2010 and 2011.

Table VD-EUR1, Euro Area, Real GDP Growth Rate, ∆%

	Euro Area	Germany	France	Italy	Spain
2016	1.7	1.9	1.2	0.9	3.2
2015	2.0	1.7	1.3	0.8	3.2
2014	1.2	1.6	0.6	0.1	1.4
2013	-0.3	0.5	0.6	-1.7	-1.7
2012	-0.9	0.5	0.2	-2.8	-2.9
2011	1.5	3.7	2.1	0.6	-1.0
2010	2.1	4.1	2.0	1.7	0.0
2009	-4.5	-5.6	-2.9	-5.5	-3.6
2008	0.4	1.1	0.2	-1.1	1.1
2007	3.0	3.3	2.4	1.5	3.8
2006	3.2	3.7	2.4	2.0	4.2
2005	1.7	0.7	1.6	0.9	3.7
2004	2.3	1.2	2.8	1.6	3.2
2003	0.7	-0.7	0.8	0.2	3.2
2002	1.0	0.0	1.1	0.2	2.9
2001	2.1	1.7	2.0	1.8	4.0
2000	3.8	3.0	3.9	3.7	5.3
1999	3.0	2.0	3.4	1.6	4.5
1998	2.9	2.0	3.6	1.6	4.3
Average 1999-2016	1.2	1.3	1.3	0.3	1.7
Average 1999-2007	2.2	1.6	2.1	1.5	3.8
Average 2016-2007	0.3	1.0	0.6	-7.0*	-0.5*
1997	2.6	1.8	2.3	1.8	3.7
1996	1.6	0.8	1.4	1.3	2.7

Note: Absolute percentage change

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

The Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index of the HIS Markit Flash Eurozone PMI^®, combining activity in manufacturing and services, increased from 54.1 in May to 54.8 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/011b0257c2144e039cb20304c7547825). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds that the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI index suggests GDP growth about 0.5 percent quarterly (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/011b0257c2144e039cb20304c7547825). The IHS Markit Eurozone PMI^® Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing activity with close association with GDP increased from 54.1 in May to 54.9 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/34a6a9b7c0634afa893246ba90272425). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds potential for growth of about 0.5 percent in quarterly GDP (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/34a6a9b7c0634afa893246ba90272425). The IHS Markit Eurozone Services Business Activity Index increased from 53.8 in May to 55.2 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/34a6a9b7c0634afa893246ba90272425). The IHS Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI^® decreased from 55.5 in May to 54.9 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/69aa3d179f0b4a4b82278e3b3706ec6d). New export orders increased. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds slower industrial growth (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/69aa3d179f0b4a4b82278e3b3706ec6d). Table EUR provides the data table for the euro area.

Table EUR, Euro Area Economic Indicators

GDP	IQ2018 ∆% 0.4; IQ2018/IQ2017 ∆% 2.5 Blog 9/13/15 11/22/15 12/13/15 2/14/16 3/13/16 5/1/16 5/15/16 6/12/16 8/7/16 8/14/16 9/11/16 11/20/16 12/11/16 02/26/17 3/12/17 5/21/17 6/11/17 8/20/17 9/10/17 11/26/17 12/10/17 2/18/18 3/11/18 5/20/18 6/10/18
Unemployment	May 2018: 8.4 % unemployment rate; May 2018: 13,656 million unemployed Blog 7/8/18
HICP	May month ∆%: 0.5 12 months Mar ∆%: 1.9 Blog 6/24/18
Producer Prices	Euro Zone industrial producer prices May ∆%: 0.8 May 12-month ∆%: 3.0 Blog 7/8/18
Industrial Production	Apr Month ∆%: -0.9; 12 months ∆%: 1.7 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Retail Sales	May month ∆%: 0.0 May 12 months ∆%: 1.4 Earlier Data: Blog 3/15/15
Confidence and Economic Sentiment Indicator	Sentiment 112.3 Jun 2018 Consumer -0.5 Jun 2018 Earlier Data: Blog 4/5/15
Trade	Jan-Apr 2018/Jan-Apr 2017 Exports ∆%: 3.8 Imports ∆%: 3.2 Apr 2018 12-month Exports ∆% 8.0 Imports ∆% 8.1 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15

Links to blog comments in Table EUR: : 6/24/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

6/10/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

6/3/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/stronger-dollar-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/20/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/dollar-revaluation-united-states_24.html

5/13/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

5/6/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

4/22/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/04/rising-yields-world-inflation-waves.html

4/15/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/04/united-states-inflation-united-states.html

4/8/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/04/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

03/25/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/decreasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

3/11/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/twenty-three-million-unemployed-or.html

3/4/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

2/25/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

2/18/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/united-states-inflation-trend-or.html

2/4/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/twenty-four-million-unemployed-or.html

1/21/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/01/dollar-devaluation-and-increasing.html

12/10/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

11/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/11/the-lost-economic-cycle-of-global_25.html

9/10/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

8/20/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

6/11/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/flattening-us-treasury-yield-curve.html

5/21/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/dollar-devaluation-world-inflation.html

3/12/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/increasing-interest-rates-twenty-four.html

2/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

12/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/rising-values-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/20/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/interest-rate-increase-could-well.html

11/13/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/dollar-revaluation-and-valuations-of.html

11/6/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/the-case-for-increase-in-federal-funds.html

9/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/interest-rate-uncertainty-and-valuation.html

8/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

8/7/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/global-competitive-easing-or.html

6/12/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/considerable-uncertainty-about-economic.html

5/15/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

5/1/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/economic-activity-appears-to-have.html

3/13/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/monetary-policy-and-fluctuations-of_13.html

3/6/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/twenty-five-million-unemployed-or.html

2/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/subdued-foreign-growth-and-dollar.html

12/13/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/liftoff-of-interest-rates-with-volatile_17.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

EUROSTAT estimates the rate of unemployment in the euro area at 8.4 percent in May

2018, as shown in Table VD-1. The number of unemployed in May 2018 was 13.656 million, which was 1.252 million lower than 14.908 million in May 2017. The rate of unemployment fell from 9.2 percent in May 2017 to 8.4 percent in May 2018.

Table VD-1, Euro Area, Unemployment Rate and Number of Unemployed, % and Millions, SA

	Unemployment Rate %	Number Unemployed Millions
May 2018	8.4	13.656
Apr	8.4	13.781
Mar	8.5	13.866
Feb	8.6	13.971
Jan	8.6	14.109
Dec 2017	8.7	14.116
Nov	8.7	14.208
Oct	8.8	14.338
Sep	8.9	14.480
Aug	9.0	14.614
Jul	9.0	14.728
Jun	9.0	14.715
May	9.2	14.908
Apr	9.2	14.974
Mar	9.4	15.231
Feb	9.4	15.331
Jan	9.6	15.509
Dec 2016	9.6	15.639
Nov	9.8	15.829
Oct	9.8	15.854
Sep	9.9	16.018
Aug	9.9	16.065
Jul	10.0	16.201
Jun	10.1	16.398
May	10.1	16.446
Apr	10.2	16.569
Mar	10.2	16.558
Feb	10.3	16.721
Jan	10.4	16.722
Dec 2015	10.4	16.846
Nov	10.5	16.866
Oct	10.6	17.039
Sep	10.6	17.067
Aug	10.7	17.166
Jul	10.8	17.327
Jun	11.0	17.649
May	11.1	17.758
Apr	11.1	17.825
Mar	11.2	17.959
Feb	11.2	17.977
Jan	11.3	18.106
Dec 2014	11.3	18.237
Nov	11.5	18.505
Oct	11.5	18.510
Sep	11.5	18.487
Aug	11.5	18.403
Jul	11.6	18.578
Jun	11.5	18.468
May	11.6	18.686
Apr	11.7	18.777
Mar	11.8	18.934
Feb	11.9	19.039
Jan	11.9	19.109
Dec 2013	11.9	19.030
Nov	11.9	19.113
Oct	11.9	19.144
Sep	12.0	19.278
Aug	12.0	19.266
Jul	12.1	19.333
Jun	12.1	19.333
May	12.1	19.341
Apr	12.1	19.372
Mar	12.1	19.302
Feb	12.1	19.307
Jan	12.0	19.254
Dec 2012	11.9	19.062
Nov	11.8	18.949
Oct	11.7	18.845
Sep	11.6	18.608
Aug	11.5	18.439
Jul	11.5	18.341
Jun	11.4	18.219
May	11.3	18.049
Apr	11.2	17.904
Mar	11.1	17.674
Feb	10.9	17.434
Jan	10.8	17.206
Dec 2011	10.7	17.095
Nov	10.6	16.905
Oct	10.5	16.654
Sep	10.4	16.494
Aug	10.2	16.255
Jul	10.2	16.115
Jun	10.0	15.925
May	10.0	15.862
Apr	10.0	15.803
Mar	10.0	15.881
Feb	10.0	15.889
Jan	10.1	15.957
Dec 2010	10.1	16.026

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

Table VD-2 shows the disparity in rates of unemployment in the euro area with 8.4 percent for the region as a whole and 13.656 million unemployed but 3.4 percent for Germany and 1.479 million unemployed. At the other extreme is Spain with rate of unemployment of 15.8 percent and 3.589 million unemployed. The rate of unemployment of the European Union in May 2018 is 7.0 percent with 17.207 million unemployed.

Table VD-2, Unemployed and Unemployment Rate in Countries and Regions, Millions and %

May 2018	Unemployment Rate %	Unemployed Millions
Euro Zone	8.4	13.656
Germany	3.4	1.479
France	9.2	2.749
Netherlands	3.9	0.352
Finland	7.9	0.217
Portugal	7.3	0.376
Ireland	5.3	0.124
Italy	10.7	2.793
Greece	20.1*	0.956*
Spain	15.8	3.589
Belgium	6.0	0.302
European Union	7.0	17.207

*Mar 2018

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

Chart VD-1 of EUROSTAT illustrates the wide difference in rates of unemployment in countries and regions.

Chart VD-1, Unemployment Rate in Various Countries and Regions

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

VE Germany. Table VE-DE provides yearly growth rates of the German economy from 1971 to 2017, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked. Germany’s GDP fell 5.6 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.1 percent in 2008. Recovery has been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.1 percent in 2010, 3.7 percent in 2011 and 0.5 percent in 2012. Growth stabilized to 0.5 percent in 2013, increasing to 1.9 percent in 2014. The German economy grew at 1.7 percent in 2015 and grew at 1.9 percent in 2016. Germany’s GDP increased 2.2 percent in 2017.

The Federal Statistical Agency of Germany analyzes the fall and recovery of the German economy (http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Content/Statistics/VolkswirtschaftlicheGesamtrechnungen/Inlandsprodukt/Aktuell,templateId=renderPrint.psml):

“The German economy again grew strongly in 2011. The price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.0% compared with the previous year. Accordingly, the catching-up process of the German economy continued during the second year after the economic crisis. In the course of 2011, the price-adjusted GDP again exceeded its pre-crisis level. The economic recovery occurred mainly in the first half of 2011. In 2009, Germany experienced the most serious post-war recession, when GDP suffered a historic decline of 5.1%. The year 2010 was characterised by a rapid economic recovery (+3.7%).”

Table VE-DE, Germany, GDP ∆% on Prior Year

	Price Adjusted Chain-Linked	Price- and Calendar-Adjusted Chain Linked
Average ∆% 1991-2017	1.4
Average ∆% 1991-1999	1.5
Average ∆% 2000-2007	1.4
Average ∆% 2003-2007	2.2
Average ∆% 2007-2017	1.2
Average ∆% 2009-2017	2.1
2017	2.2	2.5
2016	1.9	1.9
2015	1.7	1.5
2014	1.9	1.9
2013	0.5	0.6
2012	0.5	0.7
2011	3.7	3.7
2010	4.1	3.9
2009	-5.6	-5.6
2008	1.1	0.8
2007	3.3	3.4
2006	3.7	3.9
2005	0.7	0.9
2004	1.2	0.7
2003	-0.7	-0.7
2002	0.0	0.0
2001	1.7	1.8
2000	3.0	3.2
1999	2.0	1.9
1998	2.0	1.8
1997	1.8	1.9
1996	0.8	0.9
1995	1.7	1.8
1994	2.5	2.5
1993	-1.0	-1.0
1992	1.9	1.5
1991	5.1	5.2
1990	5.3	5.5
1989	3.9	4.0
1988	3.7	3.4
1987	1.4	1.3
1986	2.3	2.3
1985	2.3	2.6
1984	2.8	2.9
1983	1.6	1.5
1982	-0.4	-0.5
1981	0.5	0.6
1980	1.4	1.3
1979	4.2	4.3
1978	3.0	3.1
1977	3.3	3.5
1976	4.9	4.5
1975	-0.9	-0.9
1974	0.9	1.0
1973	4.8	5.0
1972	4.3	4.3
1971	3.1	3.0
1970	NA	NA

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/NationalAccounts.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/DomesticProduct/CurrentRevision.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Methods/NationalAccountRevision/Revision2014_BackgroundPaper.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/02/PE14_048_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/08/PE13_278_811.html https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/11/PE13_381_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/01/PE14_016_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/DE/PresseService/Presse/Pressekonferenzen/2014/BIP2013/Pressebroschuere_BIP2013.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/05/PE14_167_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/09/PE14_306_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/11/PE14_401_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_048_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_61_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/05/PE15_173_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/05/PE15_187_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/08/PE15_293_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/08/PE15_305_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/11/PE15_419_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/11/PE15_430_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/DomesticProduct/DomesticProduct.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/02/PE16_056_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/02/PE16_044_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/05/PE16_162_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/05/PE16_171_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/08/PE16_279_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/08/PE16_291_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/11/PE16_403_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/11/PE16_413_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/02/PE17_050_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/02/PE17_062_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/05/PE17_155_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/05/PE17_169_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/08/PE17_277_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/08/PE17_294_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/11/PE17_422_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2018/02/PE18_044_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2018/05/PE18_168_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2018/02/PE18_058_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2018/05/PE18_182_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/NationalAccounts.html

The Flash Germany Composite Output Index of the IHS Markit Flash Germany PMI^®, combining manufacturing and services, increased from 53.4 in May to 54.2 in Jun. The index of manufacturing output reached 54.8 in Jun, decreasing from 55.7 in May, while the index of services increased to 53.9 in Jun from 52.1 in May. The overall Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI^® decreased from 56.9 in May to 55.9 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b324ce694ec6461e8df8b462540c8840). New orders and new export orders in manufacturing increased. Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit, finds consistent growth of the private sector of Germany (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b324ce694ec6461e8df8b462540c8840)). The IHS Markit Germany Composite Output Index of the IHS Markit Germany Services PMI^®, combining manufacturing and services with close association with Germany’s GDP, increased from 53.4 in May to 54.8 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/37fe6ec3546e4ecd94f5647a268da4dc). Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit, finds improving growth of Germany (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/37fe6ec3546e4ecd94f5647a268da4dc). The Germany Services Business Activity Index increased from 52.1 in May to 54.5 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/37fe6ec3546e4ecd94f5647a268da4dc). The IHS Markit/BME Germany Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®), showing close association with Germany’s manufacturing conditions, decreased from 56.9 in May to 55.9 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b34458f1fa7647ea88cadc153a2fcb46). New export orders increased. Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit, finds continuing growth conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b34458f1fa7647ea88cadc153a2fcb46). Table DE provides the country data table for Germany

Table DE, Germany, Economic Indicators

GDP	IQ2018 0.3 ∆%; IQ2018/IQ2017 NCSA ∆% 1.6 CA 2.3 2016/2015: 1.9% 2017/2016: 2.2 CA 2.5 GDP ∆% 1970-2017 Blog 8/26/12 5/27/12 11/25/12 2/24/13 5/19/13 5/26/13 8/18/13 8/25/13 11/17/13 11/24/13 1/26/14 2/16/14 3/2/14 5/18/14 5/25/14 8/17/14 9/7/14 11/16/14 11/30/14 2/15/15 3/1/15 5/17/15 5/24/15 8/16/15 8/30/15 11/22/15 11/29/15 2/14/16 2/28/16 5/15/16 5/29/16 8/14/16 8/28/16 11/20/16 11/27/16 2/19/17 02/26/17 05/14/17 5/28/17 8/20/17 8/27/17 11/26/17 2/18/18 2/25/18 5/20/18 5/27/18
Consumer Price Index	May month NSA ∆%: 0.5 May 12-month NSA ∆%: 2.2 Blog 6/17/18
Producer Price Index	May month ∆%: 0.5 NSA, 0.5 CSA 12-month NSA ∆%: 2.7 Blog 6/24/18
Industrial Production	MFG Apr month CSA ∆%: -1.7 12-month NSA: 10.0 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Machine Orders	MFG May month ∆%: 2.6 May 12-month ∆%: -0.7 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Retail Sales	Feb Month ∆% -0.7 Jan -0.3 12-Month Feb % 1.3 Jan 2.5 Earlier Data: Blog 4/5/15
Employment Report	Unemployment Rate SA May 3.4% Blog 7/8/18
Trade Balance	Exports Apr 12-month NSA ∆%: 9.3 Imports Apr 12 months NSA ∆%: 8.2 Exports Apr month CSA ∆%: -0.3; Imports Apr month CSA 2.2 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15

Links to blog comments in Table DE: : 6/24/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

6/17/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/fomc-increases-interest-rates-with.html

6/3/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/stronger-dollar-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/27/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/dollar-strengthening-world-inflation.html

5/20/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/dollar-revaluation-united-states_24.html

5/6/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

4/22/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/04/rising-yields-world-inflation-waves.html

04/01/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_31.html

03/25/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/decreasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

03/18/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/united-states-inflation-united-states.html

3/4/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

2/25/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

2/18/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/united-states-inflation-trend-or.html

2/4/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/twenty-four-million-unemployed-or.html

1/21/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/01/dollar-devaluation-and-increasing.html

11/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/11/the-lost-economic-cycle-of-global_25.html

8/27/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/dollar-devaluation-and-interest-rate.html

5/28/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

5/14/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million_14.html

2/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

02/19/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

11/27/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/dollar-revaluation-rising-yields-and.html

11/20/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/interest-rate-increase-could-well.html

11/13/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/dollar-revaluation-and-valuations-of.html

11/6/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/the-case-for-increase-in-federal-funds.html

8/28/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/and-as-ever-economic-outlook-is.html

8/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

5/29/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/appropriate-for-fed-to-increase.html

5/15/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

2/28/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

2/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/subdued-foreign-growth-and-dollar.html

11/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/dollar-revaluation-constraining.html

11/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-liftoff-followed-by.html

08/30/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/fluctuations-of-global-financial.html

08/16/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/exchange-rate-and-financial-asset.html

5/24/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/interest-rate-policy-and-dollar.html

5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

9/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/competitive-monetary-policy-and.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

1/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/01/capital-flows-exchange-rates-and.html

11/24/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html

8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

Germany’s labor market continues to show strength not found in most of the advanced economies, as shown in Table VE-1A. The number unemployed, not seasonally adjusted, decreased from 1.55 million in May 2017 to 1.47 million in May 2018, or 5.2 percent, while the unemployment rate decreased from 3.6 percent in May 2017 to 3.4 percent in May 2018. The number of persons in employment, not seasonally adjusted, increased from 41.15 million in May 2017 to 41.54 million in May 2018, or 0.9 percent, while the employment rate increased from 66.5 percent in May 2017 to 66.9 percent in May 2018. The number unemployed, seasonally adjusted, decreased 0.7 percent from 1.49 million in Apr 2018 to 1.48 million in May 2018, while the unemployment rate did not change from 3.4 percent in Apr 2018 to 3.4 percent in May 2018. The number of persons in employment, seasonally adjusted, increased from 41.70 million in Apr 2018 to 41.72 million in May 2018, or 0.0 percent. The employment rate seasonally adjusted increased from 67.1 in Apr 2018 to 67.2 in May 2018.

Table VE-1A, Germany, Unemployment Labor Force Survey

	May 2018	Apr 2018	May 2017
NSA
Number Unemployed Millions	1.47 ∆% May 2018 /Apr 2018: -3.3 ∆% May 2018/May 2017: -5.2	1.52	1.55
% Rate Unemployed	3.4	3.6	3.6
Persons in Employment Millions	41.54 ∆% May 2018 Apr 2018: 0.6 ∆% May 2018 May 2017: 0.9	41.30	41.15
Employment Rate	66.9	66.5	66.5
SA
Number Unemployed Millions	1.48 ∆% May 2018 Apr 2018: -0.7 ∆% May 2018/May 2017: –9.8	1.49	1.64
% Rate Unemployed	3.4	3.4	3.8
Persons in Employment Millions	41.72 ∆% May 2018/Apr 2018: 0.0 ∆% May 2018/May 2017: 0.7	41.70	41.41
Employment Rate	67.2	67.1	66.9

NSA: not seasonally adjusted; SA: seasonally adjusted

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2018/06/PE18_239_132.html

The unemployment rate in Germany as percent of the labor force in Table VE-2A stood at 6.5 percent in Sep, Oct and Nov 2012, increasing to 6.7 percent in Dec 2012, 7.4 percent in Jan 2013, 7.3 in Mar 2013 and 7.1 percent in Apr 2013. The unemployment rate fell to 6.8 percent in May 2013 and 6.6 percent in Jun 2013 and rose to 6.8 percent in Jul-Aug 2013. The rate fell to 6.6 percent in Sep 2013 and 6.5 percent in Oct 2013 and Nov 2013. The unemployment rate increased to 6.7 percent in Dec 2013 and 7.3 percent in Jan 2013. The unemployment rate reached 7.3 percent in Feb 2014 and 7.1 percent in Mar 2014. The unemployment rate fell to 6.8 percent in Apr 2014 and 6.6 percent in May 2014. The unemployment rate fell to 6.5 percent in Jun 2014, increasing to 6.6 percent in Jun 2014 and 6.7 percent in Aug 2014. The unemployment rate fell to 6.5 percent in Sep 2014 and 6.3 percent in Oct 2014 and Nov 2014. The unemployment rate increased to 6.4 percent in Dec 2014 and 7.0 percent in Jan 2015, falling to 6.9 percent in Feb 2015 and 6.5 percent in Apr 2015. The unemployment rate fell to 6.3 percent in May 2015 and 6.2 percent in Jun 2015. The unemployment rate increased to 6.3 percent in Jul 2015 and 6.4 percent in Aug 2015. The unemployment rate fell from 6.4 percent in Aug 2015 to 6.1 percent in Dec 2015, increasing to 6.7 percent in Jan 2016. The unemployment rate fell to 6.6 percent in Feb 2016 and 6.5 percent in Mar 2016. The unemployment rate fell to 6.3 percent in Apr 2016, decreasing to 6.0 percent in May 2016. The unemployment rate fell to 5.9 percent in Jun 2016, increasing to 6.0 percent in Jul 2016. The unemployment rate increased to 6.1 percent in Aug 2016, falling to 5.9 percent in Aug 2016 and 5.8 percent in Sep 2016. The rate decreased to 5.7 percent in Nov 2016, increasing to 5.8 in Dec 2016 and 6.3 percent in Jan 2017. The rate stabilized at 6.3 percent in Feb 2017. The unemployment rate fell to 6.0 percent in Mar 2017 and fell to 5.8 percent in Apr 2017. The unemployment rate fell to 5.6 percent in May 2017 and fell to 5.5 percent in Jun 2017, decreasing to 5.5 percent in Sep 2017. The unemployment rate increased to 5.6 percent in Jul 2017, increasing to 5.7 percent in Aug 2017. The unemployment rate decreased to 5.5 percent in Sep 2017 decreasing to 5.4 percent in Oct 2017 and to 5.3 percent in Nov 2017. The unemployment rate stabilized at 5.3 percent in Dec 2017, increasing to 5.8 in Jan 2018. The unemployment rate fell to 5.7 percent in Feb 2018, decreasing to 5.5 percent in Mar 2018. The unemployment rate fell to 5.3 percent in Apr 2018, decreasing to 5.1 percent in May 2018. The unemployment rate fell to 5.0 percent in Jun 2018. The rate is much lower than 11.1 percent in 2005 and 9.6 percent in 2006.

Table VE-2A, Germany, Unemployment Rate in Percent of Labor Force

Jun 2018	5.0
May	5.1
Apr	5.3
Mar	5.5
Feb	5.7
Jan	5.8
Dec	5.3
Nov	5.3
Oct	5.4
Sep	5.5
Aug	5.7
Jul	5.6
Jun	5.5
May	5.6
Apr	5.8
Mar	6.0
Feb	6.3
Jan	6.3
Dec 2016	5.8
Nov	5.7
Oct	5.8
Sep	5.9
Aug	6.1
Jul	6.0
Jun	5.9
May	6.0
Apr	6.3
Mar	6.5
Feb	6.6
Jan	6.7
Dec 2015	6.1
Nov	6.0
Oct	6.0
Sep	6.2
Aug	6.4
Jul	6.3
Jun	6.2
May	6.3
Apr	6.5
Mar	6.8
Feb	6.9
Jan	7.0
Dec 2014	6.4
Nov	6.3
Oct	6.3
Sep	6.5
Aug	6.7
Jul	6.6
Jun	6.5
May	6.6
Apr	6.8
Mar	7.1
Feb	7.3
Jan	7.3
Dec 2013	6.7
Nov	6.5
Oct	6.5
Sep	6.6
Aug	6.8
Jul	6.8
Jun	6.6
May	6.8
Apr	7.1
Mar	7.3
Feb	7.4
Jan	7.4
Dec 2012	6.7
Nov	6.5
Oct	6.5
Sep	6.5
Aug	6.8
Jul	6.8
Jun	6.6
May	6.7
Apr	7.0
Mar	7.2
Feb	7.4
Jan	7.3
Dec 2011	6.6
Nov	6.4
Oct	6.5
Sep	6.6
Aug	7.0
Jul	7.0
Jun	6.9
May	7.0
Apr	7.3
Mar	7.6
Feb	7.9
Jan	7.9
Dec 2010	7.1
Dec 2009	7.8
Dec 2008	7.4
Dec 2007	8.1
Dec 2006	9.6
Dec 2005	11.1

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-1A of Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland, or Federal Statistical Office of Germany, shows the long-term decline of the rate of unemployment in Germany from more than 12 percent in early 2005 to 6.6 percent in Dec 2011, increasing to 6.7 percent in Dec 2012, 6.8 percent in Apr 2013 and 6.6 percent in May 2013. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 6.8 percent in Aug 2013, falling to 6.6 percent in Sep 2013 and 6.5 percent in Oct 2013. The rate remained at 6.5 percent in Nov 2013, increasing to 6.7 percent in Dec 2013 and 7.3 in Jan 2014. The rate remained at 7.3 percent in Feb 2014, declining to 7.1 percent in Mar 2014. The rate fell to 6.8 percent in Apr 2014, 6.6 percent in May 2014 and 6.5 percent in Jun 2014. The rate increased to 6.6 percent in Jul 2014 and 6.7 percent in Aug 2014, falling to 6.5 percent in Sep 2014. The rate fell to 6.3 percent in Oct 2014 and 6.3 percent in Nov 2014, increasing to 6.4 percent in Dec 2014. The rate increased to 7.0 percent in Jan 2015, falling to 6.9 percent in Feb 2015 and 6.8 percent in Mar 2015. The unemployment rate fell to 6.5 percent in Apr 2015 and 6.3 percent in May 2015. The unemployment rate fell to 6.2 percent in Jun 2015, increasing to 6.3 percent in Jul 2015 and 6.4 percent in Aug 2015. The unemployment rate fell to 6.2 percent in Sep 2015 and 6.0 percent in Oct 2015. The unemployment rate stabilized at 6.0 percent in Nov 2015, increasing to 6.1 percent in Dec 2015. The unemployment rate increased to 6.7 percent in Jan 2016 and fell to 6.6 percent in Feb 2016 and 6.5 percent in Mar 2016. The unemployment rate fell to 6.3 percent in Apr 2016, decreasing to 6.0 percent in May 2016 and 5.9 percent in Jun 2016. The unemployment rate increased to 6.0 percent in Jul 2016 and 6.1 percent in Aug 2016. The unemployment rate fell to 5.9 percent in Sep 2016, 5.8 percent in Oct 2016 and 5.7 percent in Nov 2016. The unemployment rate increased to 5.8 percent in Dec 2016 and 6.3 percent in Jan and Feb 2017. The unemployment rate decreased to 6.0 percent in Mar 2017 and decreased to 5.8 percent in Apr 2017. The unemployment rate fell to 5.6 percent in May 2017 and fell to 5.5 percent in Jun 2017, increasing to 5.6 percent in Jul 2017. The rate of unemployment increased to 5.7 percent in Aug 2017, decreasing to 5.5 percent in Sep 2017. The rate of unemployment decreased to 5.4 percent in Oct 2017, decreasing to 5.3 percent in Nov 2017 and 5.3 percent in Dec 2017. The rate of unemployment increased to 5.8 in Jan 2018, decreasing to 5.7 in Feb 2018. The rate of unemployment fell to 5.5 percent in Mar 2018, decreasing to 5.3 percent in Apr 2018 and decreasing to 5.1 percent in May 2018. The unemployment rate fell to 5.0 percent in Jun 2018.

Chart VE-1A, Germany, Unemployment Rate, Unadjusted, Percent

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

VF France. Table VF-FR provides growth rates of GDP of France with the estimates of Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE). The long-term rate of GDP growth of France from IVQ1949 to IQ2018 is quite high at 3.1 percent. France’s growth rates were quite high in the four decades of the 1950s, 1960, 1970s and 1980s with an average growth rate of 4.0 percent compounding the average rates in the decades and discounting to one decade. The growth impulse diminished with 2.1 percent in the 1990s and 1.8 percent from 2000 to 2007. The average growth rate from 2000 to 2017, using fourth quarter data, is 1.2 percent because of the sharp impact of the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. Cobet and Wilson (2002) provide estimates of output per hour and unit labor costs in national currency and US dollars for the US, Japan and Germany from 1950 to 2000 (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 137-44). The average yearly rate of productivity change from 1950 to 2000 was 2.9 percent in the US, 6.3 percent for Japan and 4.7 percent for Germany while unit labor costs in USD increased at 2.6 percent in the US, 4.7 percent in Japan and 4.3 percent in Germany. From 1995 to 2000, output per hour increased at the average yearly rate of 4.6 percent in the US, 3.9 percent in Japan and 2.6 percent in Germany while unit labor costs in US fell at minus 0.7 percent in the US, 4.3 percent in Japan and 7.5 percent in Germany. There was increase in productivity growth in the G7 in Japan and France in the second half of the 1990s but significantly lower than the acceleration of 1.3 percentage points per year in the US. Lucas (2011May) compares growth of the G7 economies (US, UK, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Canada) and Spain, finding that catch-up growth with earlier rates for the US and UK stalled in the 1970s.

Table VF-FR, France, Average Growth Rates of GDP Fourth Quarter, 1949-2016

Period	Average ∆%
1949-2018	3.1
2007-2018****	0.7
2007-2017***	0.7
2007-2016**	0.5
2007-2015*	0.5
2007-2014	0.4
2000-2017	1.2
2000-2016	1.1
2000-2015	1.1
2000-2014	1.1
2000-2007	1.8
1990-1999	2.0
1980-1989	2.6
1970-1979	3.7
1960-1969	5.7
1950-1959	4.2

*IVQ2007 to IVQ2015 **IVQ2007 to IVQ2016 ***IVQ2007 to IVQ2017 ****IVQ2007 to IQ2018

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/3551036

https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/3541135

http://www.bdm.insee.fr/bdm2/choixTheme?request_locale=en&code=10#arbo:montrerbranches=theme312

The IHS Markit Flash France Composite Output Index increased from 54.2 in May to 55.6 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/6aa21451640a455298acf693729d00c6). Alex Gill, Economist at IHS Markit, finds continuing activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/6aa21451640a455298acf693729d00c6). The IHS Markit France Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing with close association with French GDP, increased from 54.2 in May to 55.0 in Jun, indicating activity of the private sector (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/096aaf7978614a049b458897640bf262). Trevor Balchin, Economics Director at IHS Markit that compiles the France Services PMI^®, finds continuing growth (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/096aaf7978614a049b458897640bf262). The IHS Markit France Services Activity index increased from 54.3 in May to 55.9 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/096aaf7978614a049b458897640bf262). The IHS Markit France Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^® decreased to 52.5 in Jun from 54.4 in May (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e178928ca65449ba82f0a5d29f2c21eb). Tim Moore, Associate Director at IHS Markit, finds consistent manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e178928ca65449ba82f0a5d29f2c21eb). Table FR provides the country data table for France.

Table FR, France, Economic Indicators

CPI	May month ∆% 0.4 12 months ∆%: 2.0 6/17/18
PPI	Apr month ∆%: -0.7 Apr 12 months ∆%: 2.2 Blog 6/3/18
GDP Growth	IQ2018/IVQ2017 ∆%: 0.3 IQ2018/IQ2017 ∆%: 2.1 Blog 3/31/13 5/19/12 6/30/13 9/29/13 11/17/13 12/29/13 2/16/14 4/6/14 5/18/14 6/29/14 8/17/14 9/28/14 11/16/14 12/28/14 2/15/15 3/29/15 5/17/15 6/28/15 8/16/15 9/27/15 11/15/15 12/27/15 1/31/16 2/28/16 3/27/16 5/1/16 6/5/16 06/26/16 8/7/16 9/4/16 9/25/16 10/30/16 12/4/16 1/1/17 2/12/17 3/5/17 3/26/17 5/7/17 6/4/17 6/25/17 8/20/17 9/3/17 11/12/17 12/10/17 12/31/17 2/11/18 3/4/18 4/1/18 5/6/18 6/3/18 6/24/18
Industrial Production	Mar ∆%: Manufacturing 0.4 Quarter ∆%: -1.1 YOY 1.9 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Consumer Spending	Manufactured Goods May ∆%: -0.1 12-Month Manufactured Goods ∆%: 1.0 Earlier Data: Blog 4/5/15
Employment	Unemployment Rate: IQ2018 8.9% Blog 5/27/18
Trade Balance	Apr Exports ∆%: month 3.0 12 months 9.5 Imports ∆%: month 2.5 12 months 7.1 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Confidence Indicators	Historical average 100 Jun Mfg Business Climate 110 Earlier Data: Blog 3/29/15

Links to blog comments in Table FR: : 6/24/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

6/17/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/fomc-increases-interest-rates-with.html

6/3/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/stronger-dollar-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/27/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/dollar-strengthening-world-inflation.html

5/20/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/dollar-revaluation-united-states_24.html

5/6/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

4/22/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/04/rising-yields-world-inflation-waves.html

04/01/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_31.html

03/18/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/united-states-inflation-united-states.html

3/4/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

2/25/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

2/18/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/united-states-inflation-trend-or.html

2/11/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/collateral-effects-of-unwinding.html

2/4/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/twenty-four-million-unemployed-or.html

1/14/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/01/dollar-devaluation-and-rising.html

12/31/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/dollar-devaluation-cyclically.html

12/10/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

11/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/11/the-lost-economic-cycle-of-global_25.html

11/12/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/11/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

9/3/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

8/20/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

6/25/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/united-states-commercial-banks-united.html

6/4/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

5/7/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

3/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

3/5/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

2/12/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

1/1/17 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/rules-versus-discretionary-authorities.html

12/4/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/rising-yields-and-dollar-revaluation.html

10/30/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/10/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_30.html

9/25/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/the-economic-outlook-is-inherently.html

9/4/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/interest-rates-and-valuations-of-risk.html

8/7/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/global-competitive-easing-or.html

6/26/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/of-course-considerable-uncertainty.html

6/5/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/financial-turbulence-twenty-four.html

5/1/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/economic-activity-appears-to-have.html

3/27/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/contraction-of-united-states-corporate.html

2/28/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

1/31/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/closely-monitoring-global-economic-and.html

12/27/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/dollar-revaluation-and-decreasing.html

11/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-policy-conundrum-recovery.html

9/27/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/monetary-policy-designed-on-measurable.html

08/16/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/exchange-rate-and-financial-asset.html

6/28/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/international-valuations-of-financial.html

5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

9/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

12/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/collapse-of-united-states-dynamism-of.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

6/30/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/tapering-quantitative-easing-policy-and.html

5/19/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/word-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

VG Italy. Table VG-IT provides revised percentage changes of GDP in Italy of quarter on prior quarter and quarter on same quarter a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2018 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, the GDP of Italy increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2017 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2017, the GDP of Italy increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, the GDP of Italy increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2016, GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2015, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy changed 0.0 percent in IQ2014 and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2013 and fell 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2013 and fell 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 1.0 percent in IQ2013 and declined 2.9 percent relative to IQ2012. GDP had been growing during six consecutive quarters but at very low rates from IQ2010 to IIQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell in seven consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at increasingly higher rates of contraction from 0.6 percent in IIIQ2011 to 0.9 percent in IVQ2011, 0.9 percent in IQ2012, 0.9 percent in IIQ2012 and 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012. The pace of decline accelerated to minus 0.6 percent in IVQ2012 and minus 1.0 percent in IQ2013. GDP contracted cumulatively 5.3 percent in seven consecutive quarterly contractions from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at the annual equivalent rate of minus 3.1 percent. The yearly rate has fallen from 2.2 percent in IVQ2010 to minus 2.8 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.9 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.0 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.2 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.8 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.9 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.9 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.2 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.2 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIIQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.0 percent in IVQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.3 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.6 percent in IIQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.7 percent in IIIQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.6 percent in IVQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.4 percent in IQ2018 relative to a year earlier. Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of Italy in IQ2018 of €402,332.4 million (https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/214142) is lower by 5.5 percent relative to €425,734.7 million in IQ2008 (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat). Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of Italy increased from €368,105.8 million in IQ1998 to €425,734.7 million in IQ2008 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.5 percent. The fiscal adjustment of Italy is significantly more difficult with the economy not growing especially on the prospects of increasing government revenue. The strategy is for reforms to improve productivity, facilitating future fiscal consolidation.

Table VG-IT, Italy, GDP ∆%

	Quarter ∆% Relative to Preceding Quarter	Quarter ∆% Relative to Same Quarter Year Earlier
IQ2018	0.3	1.4
IVQ2017	0.4	1.6
IIIQ2017	0.3	1.7
IIQ2017	0.4	1.6
IQ2017	0.5	1.3
IVQ2016	0.5	1.0
IIIQ2016	0.2	0.8
IIQ2016	0.1	0.8
IQ2016	0.2	1.2
IVQ2015	0.3	1.2
IIIQ2015	0.2	0.9
IIQ2015	0.4	0.9
IQ2015	0.2	0.4
IVQ2014	0.0	0.2
IIIQ2014	0.2	0.1
IIQ2014	-0.1	0.2
IQ2014	0.0	0.3
IVQ2013	-0.1	-0.8
IIIQ2013	0.3	-1.2
IIQ2013	0.0	-2.0
IQ2013	-1.0	-2.9
IVQ2012	-0.6	-2.8
IIIQ2012	-0.5	-3.1
IIQ2012	-0.9	-3.2
IQ2012	-0.9	-2.3
IVQ2011	-0.9	-1.1
IIIQ2011	-0.6	0.4
IIQ2011	0.1	1.6
IQ2011	0.3	2.0
IVQ2010	0.6	2.2
IIIQ2010	0.5	1.9
IIQ2010	0.5	1.9
IQ2010	0.4	0.6
IVQ2009	0.4	-2.6
IIIQ2009	0.6	-5.2
IIQ2009	-0.8	-7.0
IQ2009	-2.8	-7.2
IVQ2008	-2.3	-3.5
IIIQ2008	-1.4	-1.4
IIQ2008	-1.0	-0.1
IQ2008	1.1	0.8
IV2007	-0.1	-0.1
IIIQ2007	0.0	1.3
IIQ2007	-0.1	1.7
IQ2007	0.2	2.4

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/216189

The IHS Markit Italy Business Activity Index increased from 53.1 in May to 54.3 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f87908bedd274bf7b270daadec2ec1db). Paul Smith, Economics Director at IHS Markit that compiles the Italy Services PMI^®, finds consistent conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f87908bedd274bf7b270daadec2ec1db). The IHS Markit Italy Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®), increased from 52.7 in May to 53.3 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d14cf3c0795446a4a6ef57866c2b5b1f). New export orders continued to increase. Paul Smith, Economics Director at HIS Markit that compiles the Italian Manufacturing PMI^®, finds consistent manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d14cf3c0795446a4a6ef57866c2b5b1f). Table IT provides the country data table for Italy.

Table IT, Italy, Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index	Jun month ∆% 0.3 12 months ∆% 1.4 Blog 7/8/18
Producer Price Index	May month ∆%: 1.0 May 12-month ∆%: 2.7 Blog 7/1/18
GDP Growth	IQ2018/IVQ2017 SA ∆%: 0.3 IQ2018/IQ2017 NSA ∆%: 1.4 Blog 3/17/13 6/16/13 8/11/13 9/15/13 11/17/13 12/15/13 2/16/14 3/16/14 5/18/14 6/15/14 8/10/14 8/31/14 10/19/14 11/16/14 12/7/14 2/15/15 3/15/15 5/17/15 5/31/15 8/16/15 9/6/15 11/15/15 12/6/15 2/14/16 3/6/16 5/15/16 6/5/16 8/14/16 9/11/16 11/20/16 12/4/16 02/26/17 3/12/17 5/21/17 6/4/17 8/20/17 9/3/17 11/26/17 12/10/17 2/18/18 3/11/18 5/20/18 6/10/18
Labor Report	May 2018 Participation rate 66.0% Employment ratio 58.8% Unemployment rate 10.7% Youth Unemployment 31.9% Blog 7/8/18
Industrial Production	Apr month ∆%: 1.2 12 months CA ∆%: 1.9 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Retail Sales	Apr month ∆%: -0.7 Apr 12-month ∆%: -4.6 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15
Business Confidence	Mfg Jun 106.9, Feb 110.1 Construction Jun 132.9, Feb 132.0 Earlier Data: Blog 4/5/15
Trade Balance	Balance Apr SA €3,654 million Exports Apr month SA ∆%: 0.1; Imports month ∆%: 0.7 Exports 12 months Apr NSA ∆%: 4.1 Imports 12 months NSA ∆%: 4.2 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15

Links to blog comments in Table IT: 7/1/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

6/24/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

6/3/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/stronger-dollar-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/20/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/dollar-revaluation-united-states_24.html

5/6/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

4/22/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/04/rising-yields-world-inflation-waves.html

4/8/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/04/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

04/01/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_31.html

03/18/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/united-states-inflation-united-states.html

3/11/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/twenty-three-million-unemployed-or.html

3/4/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

2/18/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/united-states-inflation-trend-or.html

2/11/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/collateral-effects-of-unwinding.html

2/4/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/twenty-four-million-unemployed-or.html

12/10/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

11/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/11/the-lost-economic-cycle-of-global_25.html

9/3/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

8/20/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

6/4/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

5/21/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/dollar-devaluation-world-inflation.html

3/12/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/increasing-interest-rates-twenty-four.html

2/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

12/4/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/rising-yields-and-dollar-revaluation.html

11/20/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/interest-rate-increase-could-well.html

9/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/interest-rate-uncertainty-and-valuation.html

8/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

6/5/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/financial-turbulence-twenty-four.html

5/15/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

3/6/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/twenty-five-million-unemployed-or.html

2/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/subdued-foreign-growth-and-dollar.html

12/6/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/liftoff-of-fed-funds-rate-followed-by.html

11/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-policy-conundrum-recovery.html

9/6/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what.html

08/16/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/exchange-rate-and-financial-asset.html

5/31/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/dollar-revaluation-squeezing-corporate.html

5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

12/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/financial-risks-twenty-six-million.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

10/19/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/imf-view-squeeze-of-economic-activity.html

8/31/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitical-and-financial-risks.html

8/10/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/volatility-of-valuations-of-risk_10.html

6/15/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financialgeopolitical-risks-recovery.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

8/11/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/recovery-without-hiring-loss-of-full.html

6/16/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/recovery-without-hiring-seven-million.html

3/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

Data on Italy’s labor market since 2004 are in Table VG-1A. The unemployment rate has risen from 6.2 percent in Dec 2006 to 10.7 percent in Apr 2018. The rate of youth unemployment for ages 15 to 24 years increased from 20.3 percent in Dec 2006 to 31.9 percent in May 2018. As in other advanced economies, unemployment has reached high levels.

Table VG-1, Italy, Labor Report

	Participation Rate %	Employment Ratio %	Unemployment Rate %	Unemployment Rate 15-24 Years %
May 2018	66.0	58.8	10.7	31.9
Apr	66.0	58.6	11.0	32.8
Mar	65.8	58.4	11.0	32.0
Feb	65.5	58.1	11.0	33.2
Jan	65.5	58.1	11.1	32.6
Dec 2017	65.4	58.1	10.9	32.9
Nov	65.6	58.2	11.1	33.5
Oct	65.5	58.1	11.1	34.6
Sep	65.5	58.1	11.1	34.7
Aug	65.6	58.1	11.2	34.6
Jul	65.5	57.9	11.3	34.4
Jun	65.3	57.9	11.1	34.8
May	65.2	57.7	11.4	36.5
Apr	65.3	57.8	11.1	35.6
Mar	65.4	57.8	11.5	36.1
Feb	65.5	57.8	11.5	35.0
Jan	65.5	57.7	11.7	37.4
Dec 2016	65.4	57.6	11.7	38.0
Nov	65.3	57.4	11.9	39.2
Oct	65.1	57.3	11.7	37.0
Sep	65.2	57.3	11.8	37.2
Aug	64.8	57.2	11.5	36.5
Jul	65.0	57.3	11.6	38.4
Jun	65.1	57.3	11.7	36.9
May	65.0	57.4	11.5	36.8
Apr	64.9	57.1	11.7	36.9
Mar	64.5	57.0	11.5	37.6
Feb	64.3	56.7	11.7	39.1
Jan	64.4	56.8	11.6	39.1
Dec 2015	64.2	56.6	11.6	38.5
Nov	64.1	56.7	11.4	37.4
Oct	64.2	56.7	11.6	39.2
Sep	64.1	56.6	11.4	39.3
Aug	64.1	56.6	11.5	39.7
Jul	63.9	56.3	11.7	38.7
Jun	64.2	56.2	12.2	41.9
May	64.0	56.0	12.3	41.3
Apr	64.1	56.2	12.1	41.7
Mar	64.0	55.9	12.5	42.4
Feb	63.9	55.9	12.3	42.3
Jan	63.8	55.8	12.4	41.5
Dec 2014	64.0	56.0	12.3	40.9
Nov	64.3	55.7	13.1	42.8
Oct	64.3	55.9	12.9	41.9
Sep	64.2	55.9	12.7	41.8
Aug	63.7	55.7	12.4	42.7
Jul	64.0	55.8	12.6	43.4
Jun	63.7	55.8	12.1	42.4
May	63.9	55.7	12.6	42.3
Apr	63.6	55.4	12.6	43.1
Mar	63.8	55.6	12.7	43.5
Feb	63.7	55.5	12.8	43.0
Jan	63.7	55.4	12.8	43.0
Dec 2013	63.5	55.5	12.5	42.3
Dec 2012	63.5	56.1	11.4	38.1
Dec 2011	62.9	56.8	9.5	31.3
Dec 2010	61.9	56.8	8.1	28.2
Dec 2009	62.2	56.9	8.3	26.5
Dec 2008	62.4	58.2	6.8	22.9
Dec 2007	62.9	58.7	6.6	21.4
Dec 2006	62.4	58.5	6.2	20.3
Dec 2005	62.5	57.8	7.5	23.5
Dec 2004	62.6	57.6	7.8	24.0

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/218036

VH United Kingdom. Annual data in Table VH-UK show the strong impact of the global recession in the UK with decline of GDP of 4.2 percent in 2009 after dropping 0.3 percent in 2008. Recovery of 1.7 percent in 2010 is relatively low in comparison with annual growth rates in 2007 and earlier years. Growth was only 1.6 percent in 2011 and 1.4 percent in 2012. Growth increased to 2.0 percent in 2013 and 2.9 percent in 2014. Growth fell to 2.3 percent in 2015, and 1.8 percent in 2016. GDP grew 1.7 percent in 2017. The bottom part of Table VH-UK provides average growth rates of UK GDP since 1948. The UK economy grew at 2.6 percent per year on average between 1948 and 2017, which is relatively high for an advanced economy. The growth rate of GDP between 2000 and 2007 is higher at 2.8 percent. Growth in the current cyclical expansion from 2010 to 2017 has been only at 2.0 percent as advanced economies struggle with weak internal demand and world trade. GDP in 2017 is higher by 11.3 percent relative to 2007 while it would have been 31.8 higher at trend of 2.8 percent as from 2000 to 2007.

Table VH-UK, UK, Gross Domestic Product, ∆%

	∆% on Prior Year
1998	3.3
1999	3.2
2000	3.5
2001	2.8
2002	2.5
2003	3.3
2004	2.3
2005	3.1
2006	2.5
2007	2.5
2008	-0.3
2009	-4.2
2010	1.7
2011	1.6
2012	1.4
2013	2.0
2014	2.9
2015	2.3
2016	1.8
2017	1.7
Average Growth Rates ∆% per Year
1948-2017	2.6
1950-1959	3.1
1960-1969	3.1
1970-1979	2.6
1980-1989	3.2
1990-1999	2.4
2000-2007	2.8
2007-2013*	2.1
2007-2014*	5.1
2007-2015	0.9
2007-2016	1.0
2007-2017	1.1
2000-2017	1.8

*Absolute change from 2007 to 2013 and 2007 to 2014

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/januarytomarch2018

The HIS Markit Flash UK PMI^® Composite Output Index fell from 52.4 in Jun to 47.7 in Jul, which is the lowest in 87 months (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/b68c3686a48c40198505b81e4e55cd81). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds the index suggests pace of contraction of GDP at 0.4 percent in IIIQ2016 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/b68c3686a48c40198505b81e4e55cd81). The Business Activity Index of the IHS Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI^® increased from 54.0 in May to 55.1 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b47dc6e053404819b7485cc100f7fb41). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds the combined indices consistent with the UK economy growing close to 0.4 percent in IIQ2018 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b47dc6e053404819b7485cc100f7fb41). The IHS Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®) increased to 54.4 in Jun from 54.3 in May (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/dc253d06a70d48ef8a7d8a545def0584). New export orders increased. Rob Dobson, Director at IHS Markit that compiles the Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI^®, finds consistent manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/dc253d06a70d48ef8a7d8a545def0584). Table UK provides the economic indicators for the United Kingdom.

Table UK, UK Economic Indicators

CPI	May month ∆%: 0.4 May 12-month ∆%: 2.4 Blog 6/17/18
Output/Input Prices	Output Prices: May12-month NSA ∆%: 2.9; excluding food, petroleum ∆%: 2.1 Input Prices: May 12-month NSA ∆%: 9.2 Excluding ∆%: 5.3 Blog 6/17/18
GDP Growth	IQ2018 prior quarter ∆% 0.2; year earlier same quarter ∆%: 1.2 Blog 3/31/13 4/28/13 5/26/13 7/28/13 8/25/13 9/29/13 10/27/13 12/1/13 12/22/13 2/2/14 3/2/14 4/6/14 5/4/14 5/25/14 6/29/14 7/27/14 8/17/14 10/5/14 10/26/14 11/30/14 12/28/14 2/1/15 3/1/15 4/5/15 5/3/15 5/31/15 7/5/15 8/2/15 9/6/15 10/4/15 11/1/15 11/29/15 12/27/15 1/31/16 2/28/16 4/3/16 5/1/16 5/29/16 7/3/16 7/31/16 9/4/16 10/9/16 10/30/16 11/27/16 1/1/17 2/5/17 2/26/17 4/9/17 5/7/2017 5/28/17 7/9/17 7/30/17 8/27/17 10/8/17 10/29/17 11/26/17 12/31/17 2/4/18 2/25/18 4/8/18 5/6/18 5/2718 7/8/18
Industrial Production	Feb-Apr 2018/Feb-Apr 2017 ∆%: Production Industries 0.3; Manufacturing -0.5 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Retail Sales	May month ∆%: 1.3 May 12-month ∆%: 3.9 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15
Labor Market	Feb-Apr 2018 Unemployment Rate: 4.2% Blog 5/20/18 LMGDP 5/17/15
GDP and the Labor Market	IQ2015 Employment 104.8 IQ2008 =100 GDP IQ15=104.0 IQ2008=100 Blog 5/17/14
Trade Balance UK Trade in Goods and Services	Balance SA Apr -£5,280 million Exports Apr ∆%: -3.2; Jan-Apr ∆%: 0.1 Imports Apr ∆%: 0.7 Jan-Apr ∆%: 1.7 EARLIER DATA: Blog 4/12/15

Links to blog comments in Table UK: 6/17/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/fomc-increases-interest-rates-with.html

5/27/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/dollar-strengthening-world-inflation.html

5/20/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/dollar-revaluation-united-states_24.html

5/6/2018 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

4/22/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/04/rising-yields-world-inflation-waves.html

4/8/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/04/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

03/25/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/decreasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

2/25/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

2/18/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/united-states-inflation-trend-or.html

2/4/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/twenty-four-million-unemployed-or.html

1/28/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/01/continuing-dollar-devaluation-mediocre.html

1/21/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/01/dollar-devaluation-and-increasing.html

12/31/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/dollar-devaluation-cyclically.html

11/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/11/the-lost-economic-cycle-of-global_25.html

10/29/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/dollar-revaluation-and-increase-of.html

10/8/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

8/27/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/dollar-devaluation-and-interest-rate.html

7/30/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/data-dependent-monetary-policy-with_30.html

7/9/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/rising-yields-twenty-two-million.html

5/28/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

2/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

2/5/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/twenty-six-million-unemployed-or.html

1/1/17 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/rules-versus-discretionary-authorities.html

11/27/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/dollar-revaluation-rising-yields-and.html

10/30/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/10/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_30.html

10/9/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/10/twenty-four-million-unemployed-or.html

9/4/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/interest-rates-and-valuations-of-risk.html

7/31/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/business-fixed-investment-has-been-soft.html

7/3/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/financial-asset-values-rebound-from.html

5/29/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/appropriate-for-fed-to-increase.html

5/1/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/economic-activity-appears-to-have.html

4/3/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/04/proceeding-cautiously-in-monetary.html

2/28/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

1/31/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/closely-monitoring-global-economic-and.html

12/27/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/dollar-revaluation-and-decreasing.html

11/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/dollar-revaluation-constraining.html

11/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-increase-considered.html

10/4/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/10/labor-market-uncertainty-and-interest.html

9/6/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what.html

08/02/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/turbulence-of-valuations-of-financial.html

7/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/07/turbulence-of-financial-asset.html

5/31/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/dollar-revaluation-squeezing-corporate.html

5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html

5/3/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/dollar-devaluation-and-carry-trade.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html

12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

10/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/financial-oscillations-world-inflation.html

10/5/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/world-financial-turbulence-twenty-seven.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

7/27/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

5/4/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html

4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html

3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html

2/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

12/22/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html

12/1/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/exit-risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html

10/27/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/twenty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html

9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html

7/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html

5/26/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

4/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_28.html

03/31/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

The UK Office for National Statistics provides revision of the national accounts in accordance with the European System of Accounts 2010 (ESA 2010) (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/quarterly-national-accounts/q2-2015/index.html). The UK Office for National Statistics moved the base and reference year of chained volumes from 2015 to 2016 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/januarytomarch2018). There are adjustments of the UK national accounts (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/articles/nationalaccountsarticles/previousReleases https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/januarytomarch2018). GDP grew 0.2 percent in IQ2018 relative to IVQ2017. Growth of 1.2 percent in IIIQ2012 interrupted three consecutive quarters of weakness in GDP growth from IIQ2011 to IVQ2011. Most advanced economies are underperforming relative to the period before the global recession. The UK Office for National Statistics analyzes that the decline in the impulse of growth in the UK originated in weakness in markets in the UK and worldwide. The UK Office for National Statistics data shows that GDP in IQ2018 is higher by 10.4 percent relative to the peak in IQ2008 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/januarytomarch2018). UK GDP in chained value measures is ₤456,663 million in IQ2008 and ₤488,153 million in IVQ2015 or increase of 6.9 percent. Growth at trend of 2.8 percent per year would bring GDP to ₤565,643 million in IVQ2015. UK GDP in IVQ2015 at ₤488,153 million is lower by ₤77,490 million relative to trend at ₤565,643 million or lower by 13.7 percent compared with trend. GDP estimates of the UK Office for National Statistics measure the contraction of 6.3 percent from peak to trough (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/januarytomarch2018), which is roughly equal at 6.3 percent to compounding the quarterly rates except for rounding in Table VH-1 from IIQ2008 to IIQ2009. UK GDP is ₤456,663 million in IQ2008 declining 6.3 percent to ₤428,073 million in IIQ2009. GDP increased 14.0 percent from IIQ2009 to ₤488,153 million in IVQ2015 or at the annual equivalent rate of 2.1 percent. GDP increased 6.9 percent from IQ2008 to IVQ2015 or at the annual equivalent rate of 0.9 percent. Using the seasonally adjusted chained-value measures (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/januarytomarch2018). GDP increased from ₤456,663 million in IQ2008 to ₤504,195 million in IQ2018, or 10.4 percent at the annual equivalent rate of 1.0 percent. UK GDP in IQ2018 at ₤504,195 million is lower by ₤97,709 million relative to trend at ₤601,904 million or lower by 16.2 percent compared with trend. UK GDP increased 17.8 percent from IIQ2009 to IQ2018 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.9 percent.

Table VH-1, UK, Percentage Change of GDP from Prior Quarter, Chained Value Measures ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IV
2018	0.2
2017	0.4	0.2	0.4	0.4
2016	0.3	0.2	0.5	0.7
2015	0.4	0.6	0.4	0.7
2014	0.8	0.8	0.7	0.7
2013	0.6	0.5	0.9	0.5
2012	0.6	-0.1	1.2	-0.2
2011	0.7	0.1	0.3	0.2
2010	0.5	0.9	0.6	0.1
2009	-1.7	-0.2	0.1	0.3
2008	0.4	-0.7	-1.6	-2.2
2007	1.0	0.7	0.8	0.8
2006	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.4
2005	0.9	1.1	1.2	1.5
2004	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.3
2003	0.7	0.9	1.0	0.8
2002	0.5	0.7	0.8	0.9
2001	1.3	0.8	0.7	0.4
2000	0.8	0.6	0.3	0.2
1999	0.6	0.1	1.8	1.4
1998	0.8	0.9	0.7	1.0

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/januarytomarch2018

Chart VH-1 of the UK Office for National Statistics provides the quarterly growth rate of GDP of the United Kingdom and GDP in chained volume measures (CVM) from 2004 to 2018. GDP contracted sharply during the global recession, surpassing the pre-recession peak of IQ2008 and continuing growth in the expansion phase.

Chart VH-1, United Kingdom, Gross Domestic Product, CVM, SA, ₤ Billion, Percentage Change on Prior Quarter

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/januarytomarch2018

There are four periods in Table VH-2 in growth of GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier in the UK in the years from 1998 to the present. (1) Growth rates were quite high from 2000 to 2007. (2) There were six consecutive quarters of contraction of GDP from IIIQ2008 to IVQ2009. Contractions relative to the quarter a year earlier were quite sharp with the highest of 4.2 percent in IVQ2008, 6.1 percent in IQ2009, 5.6 percent in IIQ2009 and 3.8 percent in IIIQ2009. (3) The economy bounced strongly with 1.8 percent in IIQ2010, 2.3 percent in IIIQ2010 and 2.0 percent in IVQ2010. (4) Recovery did not continue at rates comparable to those in 2000 to 2007 and even relative to those in the final three quarters of 2010. Growth relative to the same quarter a year earlier fell from 2.0 percent in IVQ2010 to 1.6 percent in IIQ2011, 1.3 percent in IIIQ2011, 1.3 percent in IVQ2011 but only 1.2 percent in IQ2012, increase of 1.0 percent in IIQ2012 relative to IIQ2011, increase of 2.0 percent in IIIQ2012 and 1.6 percent in IVQ2012. In IQ2012, UK GDP increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, GDP fell 0.1 percent relative to IQ2012 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, GDP increased 1.2 percent and increased 2.0 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier. In IVQ2012, GDP fell 0.2 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Fiscal consolidation in an environment of weakening economic growth is much more challenging. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 0.6 percent in IQ2013 relative to IVQ2012. In IIQ2013, GDP increased 0.5 percent and 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.9 percent in IIIQ2013 and 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2013 and 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, GDP increased 0.8 percent and 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2014 and 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIIQ2014 and 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, GDP increased 0.7 percent and 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2015 and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2016 and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2016 and grew 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2016 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2017 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, GDP increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2007 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier.

Table VH-2, UK, Percentage Change of GDP from Same Quarter a Year Earlier, Chained Value Measures ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IVQ
2018	1.2
2017	1.8	1.8	1.7	1.3
2016	2.1	1.7	1.7	1.7
2015	2.7	2.4	2.1	2.2
2014	2.8	3.1	2.9	3.1
2013	1.6	2.2	1.9	2.6
2012	1.2	1.0	2.0	1.6
2011	2.3	1.6	1.3	1.3
2010	0.8	1.8	2.3	2.0
2009	-6.1	-5.6	-3.8	-1.4
2008	2.8	1.3	-1.2	-4.2
2007	1.6	2.1	2.9	3.4
2006	4.1	3.2	2.1	0.9
2005	1.8	2.5	3.5	4.8
2004	3.4	2.8	1.9	1.4
2003	3.0	3.3	3.6	3.5
2002	2.5	2.3	2.4	2.8
2001	2.4	2.6	3.0	3.3
2000	4.1	4.7	3.1	1.9
1999	3.2	2.4	3.4	3.8
1998	3.2	3.2	3.5	3.4

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/januarytomarch2018

Table VH-3 provides annual percentage changes of gross value added and key components. Production fell 8.9 percent in 2009 and its most important component manufacturing fell 9.4 percent. Services fell 2.8 percent in 2009. Services grew in all years from 2010 to 2017 while manufacturing fell 1.4 percent in 2012 and fell 1.0 percent in 2013. Manufacturing resumed growth with 2.9 percent in 2014 followed by change of 0.0 percent in 2015. Manufacturing increased 0.4 percent in 2016 and increased 2.5 percent in 2017.

Table VH-3, UK, Gross Value Added by Components, ∆% on Prior Year

	TP	MFG	CONS	SERV	GVA BP	GVA EX
2016 Weights	138	100	60	796	100	993
2017	1.8	2.5	7.1	1.8	1.9	1.9
2016	1	0.4	4.1	1.9	1.9	1.9
2015	1.2	0	4.4	2.7	2.5	2.5
2014	1.5	2.9	8.8	3.2	3.4	3.4
2013	-0.7	-1	1.5	1.8	1.4	1.5
2012	-2.7	-1.4	-6.9	2.6	1.2	1.4
2011	-0.6	2.2	2.2	1.7	1.5	1.7
2010	3.2	4.6	8.5	1.2	1.8	2
2009	-8.9	-9.4	-13.2	-2.8	-4.3	-4.3
2008	-2.4	-2.8	-2.6	0.5	-0.1	-0.1
2007	0.3	0.6	2.2	3	2.5	2.6
2006	0.6	2.2	0.8	3	2.5	2.7
2005	-0.6	0	-2.4	4.6	3.3	3.6
2004	0.6	1.8	5.3	2.2	2.1	2.4
2003	-0.6	-0.5	4.8	4.2	3.4	3.6
2002	-1.4	-2.2	5.7	2.7	2.2	2.3
2001	-1.5	-1.5	1.8	3.8	2.5	2.8
2000	1.8	2.2	0.9	4.1	3.5	3.7
1999	1.1	0.5	1.3	4.1	3.3	3.3
1998	1.1	0.4	1.5	4.4	3.5	3.5

Note: TP: Total Production; MFG: Manufacturing; CONS: Construction; SERV: Services; GVA BP: Gross Value Added at Basic Prices; GVA EX: Gross Value Added excluding Oil and Gas

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/januarytomarch2018

Table VH-4 shows for IQ2018 that gross valued at basic prices increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier while gross value added with exclusions increased 1.1 percent. Total production increased 2.4 percent and manufacturing expanded with growth at 2.5 percent. Services grew 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier.

Table VH-4, UK, Gross Value Added by Components, ∆% on Same Quarter of Prior Year

	TP	MFG	CONS	SERV	GVA BP	BGV EX
2016 Weights	138	100	60	796	100	993
2018 Q1	2.4	2.5	0.3	1.2	1.1	1.1
2017 Q4	2.3	3.1	4.4	1.3	1.3	1.3
2017 Q3	2.1	3	7	1.7	1.8	1.9
2017 Q2	0.6	1.5	7.8	2.2	2.1	2.2
2017 Q1	2.3	2.5	9.2	2.1	2.4	2.4
2016 Q4	2.1	1.9	6.1	2.1	2.3	2.3
2016 Q3	0.9	0.4	4.7	1.9	1.9	1.9
2016 Q2	1	0.5	3	1.6	1.6	1.6
2016 Q1	-0.1	-1.1	2.5	2.1	1.8	1.7
2015 Q4	0.3	-1.1	3.3	2	1.8	1.7
2015 Q3	1.2	-0.7	2.1	2.5	2.2	2.1
2015 Q2	1.8	0.2	5.7	2.9	2.9	2.8
2015 Q1	1.5	1.4	6.7	3.3	3.3	3.3
2014 Q4	1.1	2.7	8.1	4.1	4	4
2014 Q3	1.3	3	9.2	3.4	3.5	3.6
2014 Q2	1.6	3	9.3	3.1	3.3	3.3
2014 Q1	1.9	2.9	8.6	2.2	2.5	2.5
2013 Q4	2	1.4	5.7	1.6	1.9	1.9
2013 Q3	-0.7	-0.9	5	1.3	1.2	1.3
2013 Q2	-1.1	-1	0.5	2.1	1.5	1.6
2013 Q1	-3	-3.3	-5	2.3	1.1	1.2
2012 Q4	-3.8	-2.6	-7.9	3.2	1.5	1.7
2012 Q3	-2	-1	-8.7	3.3	1.7	1.8
2012 Q2	-2.6	-2	-7.9	2.1	0.8	0.9
2012 Q1	-2.4	0	-3.1	1.9	1	1.1
2011 Q4	-2.6	-0.1	2	1.1	0.7	0.9
2011 Q3	-1.1	1.2	-0.7	1.4	1	1.2
2011 Q2	-0.3	3.1	1.9	1.9	1.6	1.9
2011 Q1	1.7	4.6	5.8	2.4	2.6	2.8
2010 Q4	4.2	5.4	9	1.8	2.5	2.6
2010 Q3	4.1	6	10.6	1.6	2.4	2.5
2010 Q2	2.7	4.3	10.5	1.1	1.9	2
2010 Q1	1.9	2.6	4	0.1	0.6	0.7
2009 Q4	-4.7	-3.9	-7.8	-0.9	-1.8	-1.7
2009 Q3	-9.9	-9.9	-12.2	-2.2	-4	-3.9
2009 Q2	-10	-10.9	-16.2	-3.8	-5.5	-5.5
2009 Q1	-10.9	-12.5	-16.1	-4.1	-5.9	-5.9
2008 Q4	-6.7	-7.3	-8.7	-2.7	-3.6	-3.6
2008 Q3	-1.7	-2.7	-1.7	-0.7	-0.9	-0.8
2008 Q2	-1	-1.4	-0.4	1.8	1.3	1.4
2008 Q1	-0.2	0.3	0.3	3.5	2.8	2.9
2007 Q4	0.4	-0.3	0.5	4.3	3.4	3.4
2007 Q3	0	0.1	1.1	3.7	2.9	3
2007 Q2	0.6	1	3	2.5	2.2	2.3
2007 Q1	0.1	1.7	4.2	1.5	1.4	1.6
2006 Q4	0.7	3	3.9	0.2	0.5	0.6
2006 Q3	1.1	2.6	1.8	2.1	1.8	2
2006 Q2	-0.4	1.5	-0.6	4.3	3.2	3.5
2006 Q1	1.1	1.6	-1.9	5.7	4.5	4.7
2005 Q4	-0.5	-0.2	-2.2	7.1	5.3	5.6
2005 Q3	-0.2	1	-3	5.1	3.9	4.2
2005 Q2	-0.6	0	-1.7	3.4	2.5	2.7
2005 Q1	-1.3	-0.8	-2.8	2.6	1.7	1.9
2004 Q4	-0.3	1	-0.2	1.7	1.2	1.4
2004 Q3	-0.5	0.6	3.5	2	1.7	1.9
2004 Q2	2	2.7	6.8	2.3	2.5	2.6
2004 Q1	1.4	2.8	11.7	2.9	3.2	3.5
2003 Q4	0.6	1.6	5.7	4	3.5	3.8
2003 Q3	-0.5	-1	4.5	4.4	3.5	3.7
2003 Q2	-1.1	-0.6	5.5	4.4	3.5	3.8
2003 Q1	-1.3	-2.1	3.5	4.2	3.1	3.2
2002 Q4	-0.5	-1.5	6.9	2.9	2.6	2.7
2002 Q3	-1.4	-1.5	7.4	2.5	2.2	2.4
2002 Q2	-1.4	-2.5	3.4	2.5	2	2
2002 Q1	-2.2	-3.1	5.2	2.8	2.1	2.2
2001 Q4	-3	-3.9	3.8	4.7	3.1	3.2
2001 Q3	-1.4	-1.3	3.7	3.9	2.8	3
2001 Q2	-1.6	-1.5	1.6	3.5	2.3	2.6
2001 Q1	-0.1	0.7	-1.9	2.9	2	2.4
2000 Q4	0.5	1.5	0	2	1.6	1.9
2000 Q3	0.7	1	-1.9	4	3	3.3
2000 Q2	3	3.2	2.1	5.5	4.8	5
2000 Q1	3	3.1	3.3	5.1	4.6	4.6
1999 Q4	2.9	2.8	2.1	4.4	4	4
1999 Q3	2.3	1.8	3.2	3.8	3.5	3.4
1999 Q2	-0.3	-0.9	1.4	3.3	2.5	2.4
1999 Q1	-0.6	-1.5	-1.5	4.9	3.4	3.3
1998 Q4	0.3	-0.9	0	5.5	4.1	4
1998 Q3	0.8	0.3	1.3	5	3.9	4
1998 Q2	1.9	1.1	0.1	3.9	3.3	3.2
1998 Q1	1.4	1	4.7	3.2	2.9	3

Note: TP: Total Production; MFG: Manufacturing; CONS: Construction; SERV: Services; GVA BP: Gross Value Added at Basic Prices; GVA EX: Gross Value Added excluding Oil and Gas

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/januarytomarch2018

Table VH-5 provides contributions to value added by expenditure components in a quarter relative to the prior quarter. Household final consumption contributed 0.4 percentage points in IQ2017 and contributed 0.2 percentage points in IIQ2017. Household final consumption contributed 0.2 percentage points in IIIQ2017 and contributed 0.2 percentage points in IVQ2017. Household final consumption contributed 0.2 percentage points in IQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points in IQ2017 and contributed 0.0 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points in IIIQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.3 percentage points in IVQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points in IQ2018. GFCF added 0.2 percentage points in IQ2017. GFCF contributed 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2017 and contributed 0.1 percentage points in IIIQ2017. GFCF contributed 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2017. GFCF deducted 0.2 percentage points in IQ2018.

Table VH-5, UK, Contribution to Quarter on Prior Quarter of Growth of Value Added by Expenditure Components, %

	IQ2017	IIQ2017	IIIQ2017	IVQ2017	IQ2018
HFC	0.4	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2
NPISH	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
GOVT	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1
GCF	0.2	-0.1	0.2	-0.2	0.0
GFCF	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.1	-0.2
BI	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
Exports	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.0
Less Imports	0.3	0.1	0.2	-0.1	-0.1
Net Trade	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.1

Components may not add because of rounding

HFC: Household Final Consumption; NPISH: NPISH Final Consumption; GOVT: General Government; GCF: Gross Capital Formation; GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation; BINV: Business Investment; EXP: Exports; IMP: Less Imports

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/januarytomarch2018

Contributions of value added by expenditure components in a year relative to the prior year are in Table VH-6. Household final consumption added 1.4 percentage points in 2014 and 1.7 percentage points in 2015. Household final consumption added 2.0 percentage points 2016. Household final consumption contributed 1.2 percentage points in 2017. Gross capital formation contributed 1.8 percentage points in 2014 and 0.8 percentage points in 2015. Gross capital formation contributed 0.3 percentage points in 2016. Gross capital formation contributed 0.1 percentage points in 2017. GFCF added 1.1 percentage points in 2014 and 0.6 percentage points in 2015. GFCF added 0.4 percentage points in 2016. GFCF contributed 0.6 percentage points in 2017. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points in 2014 and subtracted 0.4 percentage points in 2015. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points in 2016. Net trade contributed 0.6 percentage points in 2017.

Table VH-6, UK, Contribution to Growth on Prior Year of Value Added by Expenditure Components, %

	2014	2015	2016	2017
HFC	1.4	1.7	2.0	1.2
NPISH	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
GOVT	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0
GCF	1.8	0.8	0.3	0.1
GFCF	1.1	0.6	0.4	0.6
BINV	0.5	0.4	0.0	0.2
Exports	0.8	1.3	0.3	1.5
Less Imports	1.4	1.6	0.9	1.0
Net Trade	-0.6	-0.4	-0.7	0.6

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/januarytomarch2018

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