Sunday, January 28, 2018

Continuing Dollar Devaluation, Mediocre Cyclical United States Economic Growth with GDP Two Trillion Dollars below Trend in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth Underperforming Below Trend Worldwide, Cyclically Stagnating Real Private Fixed Investment, United States Housing, United States Commercial Banks, Theory and Reality of Economic History, Cyclical Slow Growth Not Secular Stagnation and Monetary Policy Based on Fear of Deflation, World Cyclical Slow Growth and Global Recession Risk: Part IV

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Continuing Dollar Devaluation, Mediocre Cyclical United States Economic Growth with GDP Two Trillion Dollars below Trend in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth Underperforming Below Trend Worldwide, Cyclically Stagnating Real Private Fixed Investment, United States Housing, United States Commercial Banks, Theory and Reality of Economic History, Cyclical Slow Growth Not Secular Stagnation and Monetary Policy Based on Fear of Deflation, World Cyclical Slow Growth and Global Recession Risk

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018

I Mediocre Cyclical United States Economic Growth with GDP Two Trillion Dollars below Trend

IA Mediocre Cyclical United States Economic Growth

IA1 Stagnating Real Private Fixed Investment

IIA United States Housing Collapse

IIA1 Sales of New Houses

IIA2 United States House Prices

IIB United States Commercial Banks Assets and Liabilities

IA Transmission of Monetary Policy

IB Functions of Banking

IC United States Commercial Banks Assets and Liabilities

ID Theory and Reality of Economic History, Cyclical Slow Growth Not Secular Stagnation and Monetary Policy Based on Fear of Deflation

III World Financial Turbulence

IIIA Financial Risks

IIIE Appendix Euro Zone Survival Risk

IIIF Appendix on Sovereign Bond Valuation

IV Global Inflation

V World Economic Slowdown

VA United States

VB Japan

VC China

VD Euro Area

VE Germany

VF France

VG Italy

VH United Kingdom

VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets

VII Economic Indicators

VIII Interest Rates

IX Conclusion

References

Appendixes

Appendix I The Great Inflation

IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies

IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact

IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort

IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis

V World Economic Slowdown. Table V-1 is constructed with the database of the IMF (http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29) to show GDP in dollars in 2016 and the growth rate of real GDP of the world and selected regional countries from 2016 to 2019. The data illustrate the concept often repeated of “two-speed recovery” of the world economy from the recession of 2007 to 2009. The IMF has changed its forecast of the world economy to 3.6 percent in 2017 but accelerating to 3.7 percent in 2018 and 3.7 percent in 2019. Slow-speed recovery occurs in the “major advanced economies” of the G7 that account for $35,516 billion of world output of $75,368 billion, or 47.1 percent, but are projected to grow at much lower rates than world output, 1.7 percent on average from 2016 to 2019, in contrast with 3.6 percent for the world as a whole. While the world would grow 15.0 percent in the four years from 2016 to 2018, the G7 as a whole would grow 7.1 percent. The difference in dollars of 2016 is high: growing by 15.0 percent would add around $11.3 trillion of output to the world economy, or roughly, over two times the output of the economy of Japan of $4,937 billion but growing by 7.1 percent would add $5.4 trillion of output to the world, or about the output of Japan in 2016. The “two speed” concept is in reference to the growth of the 150 countries labeled as emerging and developing economies (EMDE) with joint output in 2016 of $29,183 billion, or 38.7 percent of world output. The EMDEs would grow cumulatively 20.2 percent or at the average yearly rate of 4.7 percent, contributing $5.9 trillion from 2016 to 2019 or the equivalent of somewhat more than one half the GDP of $11,232 billion of China in 2016. The final four countries in Table I-1 often referred as BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China), are large, rapidly growing emerging economies. Their combined output in 2016 adds to $16,578 billion, or 22.0 percent of world output, which is equivalent to 46.7 percent of the combined output of the major advanced economies of the G7.

Table V-1, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Real GDP Growth

GDP USD Billions 2016

Real GDP ∆%
2016

Real GDP ∆%
2017

Real GDP ∆%
2018

Real GDP ∆%
2019

World

75,368

3.2

3.6

3.7

3.7

G7

35,516

1.4

2.0

1.9

1.6

Canada

1,530

1.5

3.0

2.1

1.7

France

2,466

1.2

1.6

1.8

1.9

DE

3,479

1.9

2.1

1.8

1.5

Italy

1,851

0.9

1.5

1.1

0.9

Japan

4,937

1.0

1.5

0.7

0.8

UK

2,629

1.8

1.7

1.5

1.6

US

18,624

1.5

2.2

2.3

1.9

Euro Area

11,923

1.7

2.1

1.9

1.7

DE

3,479

1.9

2.1

1.8

1.5

France

2,466

1.2

1.6

1.8

1.9

Italy

1,851

0.9

1.5

1.1

0.9

POT

205

1.4

2.5

2.0

1.7

Ireland

304

5.2

4.1

3.4

3.0

Greece

195

0.0

1.8

2.6

1.9

Spain

1,233

3.2

3.1

2.5

2.0

EMDE

29,183

4.3

4.6

4.9

5.0

Brazil

1,799

-3.6

0.7

1.5

2.0

Russia

1,283

-0.2

1.8

1.6

1.5

India

2,264

7.1

6.7

7.4

7.8

China

11,232

6.7

6.8

6.5

6.3

Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries); POT: Portugal

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook databank

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2017/02/weodata/index.aspx

Continuing high rates of unemployment in advanced economies constitute another characteristic of the database of the WEO (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2017/02/weodata/index.aspx). Table V-2 is constructed with the WEO database to provide rates of unemployment from 2015 to 2019 for major countries and regions. In fact, unemployment rates for 2015 in Table I-2 are high for all countries: unusually high for countries with high rates most of the time and unusually high for countries with low rates most of the time. The rates of unemployment are particularly high in 2015 for the countries with sovereign debt difficulties in Europe: 12.4 percent for Portugal (POT), 9.5 percent for Ireland, 24.9 percent for Greece, 22.1 percent for Spain and 11.9 percent for Italy, which is lower but still high. The G7 rate of unemployment is 5.8 percent. Unemployment rates are not likely to decrease substantially if slow growth persists in advanced economies.

Table V-2, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Unemployment Rate as Percent of Labor Force

% Labor Force 2015

% Labor Force 2016

% Labor Force 2017

% Labor Force 2018

% Labor Force 2019

World

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

G7

5.8

5.4

5.0

4.8

4.8

Canada

6.9

7.0

6.5

6.3

6.2

France

10.4

10.0

9.5

9.0

8.7

DE

4.6

4.2

3.8

3.7

3.7

Italy

11.9

11.7

11.4

11.0

10.6

Japan

3.4

3.2

2.9

2.9

2.9

UK

5.4

4.9

4.4

4.4

4.6

US

5.3

4.9

4.4

4.1

4.2

Euro Area

10.9

10.0

9.2

8.7

8.3

DE

4.6

4.2

3.8

3.7

3.7

France

10.4

10.0

9.5

9.0

8.7

Italy

11.9

11.7

11.4

11.0

10.6

POT

12.4

11.1

9.7

9.0

8.5

Ireland

9.5

7.9

6.4

5.9

5.8

Greece

24.9

23.6

22.3

20.7

19.5

Spain

22.1

19.6

17.1

15.6

15.0

EMDE

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

Brazil

8.3

11.3

13.1

12.0

11.0

Russia

5.6

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

India

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

China

4.1

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.0

Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries)

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2017/02/weodata/index.aspx

There are references to adverse periods as “lost decades.” There is a more prolonged and adverse period in Table V-3A: the lost economic cycle of the Global Recession with economic growth underperforming below trend worldwide. Economic contractions were relatively high but not comparable to the decline of GDP during the Great Depression. In fact, during the Great Depression in the four years of 1930 to 1933, US GDP in constant dollars fell 26.4 percent cumulatively and fell 45.3 percent in current dollars (Pelaez and Pelaez, Financial Regulation after the Global Recession (2009a), 150-2, Pelaez and Pelaez, Globalization and the State, Vol. II (2009b), 205-7 and revisions in http://bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). Data are available for the 1930s only on a yearly basis. The contraction of GDP in the current cycle of the Global Recession was much lower, 4.2 percent (Section I and earlier (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_23.html). Contractions were deeper in Japan, 8.7 percent, the euro area (19 members), 5.8 percent, Germany, 6.9 percent and the UK 6.1 percent. The contraction in France was 4.0 percent. There is adversity in low rates of growth during the expansion that did not compensate for the contraction such that for the whole cycle performance is disappointingly low. As a result, GDP is substantially below what it would have been in trend growth in all countries and regions in the world. Long-term economic performance in the United States consisted of trend growth of GDP at 3 percent per year and of per capita GDP at 2 percent per year as measured for 1870 to 2010 by Robert E Lucas (2011May). The economy returned to trend growth after adverse events such as wars and recessions. The key characteristic of adversities such as recessions was much higher rates of growth in expansion periods that permitted the economy to recover output, income and employment losses that occurred during the contractions. Over the business cycle, the economy compensated the losses of contractions with higher growth in expansions to maintain trend growth of GDP of 3 percent and of GDP per capita of 2 percent. The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. US economic growth has been at only 2.2 percent on average in the cyclical expansion in the 34 quarters from IIIQ2009 to IVQ2017. Boskin (2010Sep) measures that the US economy grew at 6.2 percent in the first four quarters and 4.5 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the second quarter of 1975; and at 7.7 percent in the first four quarters and 5.8 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the first quarter of 1983 (Professor Michael J. Boskin, Summer of Discontent, Wall Street Journal, Sep 2, 2010 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882304575465462926649950.html). There are new calculations using the revision of US GDP and personal income data since 1929 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (http://bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) and the first estimate of GDP for IVQ2017 (https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2018/pdf/gdp4q17_adv.pdf). The average of 7.7 percent in the first four quarters of major cyclical expansions is in contrast with the rate of growth in the first four quarters of the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010 of only 2.7 percent obtained by dividing GDP of $14,745.9 billion in IIQ2010 by GDP of $14,355.6 billion in IIQ2009 {[($14,745.9/$14,355.6) -1]100 = 2.7%], or accumulating the quarter on quarter growth rates (Section I and earlier (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_23.html). The expansion from IQ1983 to IVQ1985 was at the average annual growth rate of 5.9 percent, 5.4 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1986, 5.2 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1986, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1989, 4.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1989, 4.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1989, 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1989. 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1990, 4.4 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1990, 4.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1990, 4.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1990, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1991 and at 7.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (Section I and earlier (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_23.html). The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dates a contraction of the US from IQ1990 (Jul) to IQ1991 (Mar) (http://www.nber.org/cycles.html). The expansion lasted until another contraction beginning in IQ2001 (Mar). US GDP contracted 1.3 percent from the pre-recession peak of $8983.9 billion of chained 2009 dollars in IIIQ1990 to the trough of $8865.6 billion in IQ1991 (http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IVQ2017 would have accumulated to 34.4 percent. GDP in IVQ2017 would be $20,149.0 billion (in constant dollars of 2009) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $2876.5 billion than actual $17,272.5 billion. There are about two trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 22.6 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 13.3 percent of the effective labor force (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/01/twenty-three-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html). US GDP in IVQ2017 is 14.3 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $14,991.8 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $17,272.5 billion in IVQ2017 or 15.2 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.4 percent. Professor John H. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. Cochrane (2016May02) measures GDP growth in the US at average 3.5 percent per year from 1950 to 2000 and only at 1.76 percent per year from 2000 to 2015 with only at 2.0 percent annual equivalent in the current expansion. Cochrane (2016May02) proposes drastic changes in regulation and legal obstacles to private economic activity. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 3.1 percent per year from Dec 1919 to Dec 2017. Growth at 3.1 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output from 108.2393 in Dec 2007 to 146.8830 in Dec 2017. The actual index NSA in Dec 2017 is 103.381, which is 29.6 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 2.0 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2017. Using trend growth of 2.0 percent per year, the index would increase to 131.9431 in Dec 2017. The output of manufacturing at 103.381 in Dec 2017 is 21.6 percent below trend under this alternative calculation.

Table V-3A, Cycle 2007-2017, Percentage Contraction, Average Growth Rate in Expansion, Average Growth Rate in Whole Cycle and GDP Percent Below Trend

Contraction ∆%

Expansion AV ∆%

Whole Cycle AV ∆%

Below Trend Percent

USA

4.2

2.2

1.4

14.3

Japan

8.7

1.7

0.5

NA

Euro Area (19)

5.8

1.3

0.5

15.5

France

4.0

1.3

0.7

10.1

Germany

6.9

2.1

1.1

NA

UK

6.1

2.0

1.0

14.5

Note: AV: Average. Expansion and Whole Cycle AV ∆% calculated with quarterly growth, seasonally adjusted and quarterly adjusted when applicable, rates and converted into annual equivalent.

Data reported periodically in this blog.

Source: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.census.gov/aboutus/stat_int.html

Table V-3 provides the latest available estimates of GDP for the regions and countries followed in this blog from IQ2012 to IVQ2016 available now for all countries. There are estimates for all countries for IQ2017 and IIQ2017. There are estimates for IIIQ2017. Growth is weak throughout most of the world.

Table V-4 provides two types of data: growth of exports and imports in the latest available months and in the past 12 months; and contributions of net trade (exports less imports) to growth of real GDP.

  • China. In Dec 2017, China exports increased 10.9 percent relative to a year earlier and imports increased 4.5 percent.
  • Germany. Germany’s exports increased 4.1 percent in the month of Nov 2017 and increased 8.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2017. Germany’s imports increased 2.3 percent in the month of Nov 2017 and increased 8.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2017. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to growth of GDP in IQ2012, contributed 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2012, contributed 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2012, deducted 0.5 percentage points in IVQ2012, deducted 0.3 percentage points in IQ2013 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded deducted 0.0 percentage points from Germany’s GDP growth in IIIQ2013 and added 1.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2014 and added 0.7 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 0.5 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.3 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.5 percentage points in IVQ2015 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.4 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.4 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.4 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2017. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017.
  • United Kingdom. Net trade contributed 0.7 percentage points in IIQ2013. In IIIQ2013, net trade deducted 1.7 percentage points from UK growth. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to UK value added in IVQ2013. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to UK value added in IQ2014 and 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2014 and added 0.0 percentage points in IVQ2014. Net traded deducted 0.4 percentage points from growth in IQ2015. Net trade added 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.5 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.4 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.7-percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 1.4 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade added 1.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.4 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2017 and contributed 0.4 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.5 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2017.
  • France. France’s exports decreased 1.6 percent in Nov 2017 while imports decreased 0.5 percent. France’s exports increased 1.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2017 and imports increased 4.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Net traded added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IIIQ2012 and 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IQ2013 and added 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2013, deducting 1.7 percentage points in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IVQ2013 and deducted 0.1 percentage points in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IIQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to France’s GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.6 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015 and deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.3 percentage points to GDP in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP in IIIQ2016 and added 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP in IQ2017 and added 0.6 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2017.
  • United States. US exports increased 2.3 percent in Nov 2017 and goods exports increased 6.5 percent in Jan-Nov 2017 relative to a year earlier. Imports increased 2.5 percent in Nov 2017 and goods imports increased 6.9 percent in Jan-Nov 2017 relative to a year earlier. Net trade added 0.28 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2012 and added 0.16 percentage points in IIIQ2012 and 0.58 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade added 0.30 percentage points to US GDP growth in IQ2013 and deducted 0.21 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded added 0.13 percentage points to US GDP growth in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 1.29 percentage points to US GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 1.14 percentage points from US GDP growth in IQ2014 and deducted 0.40 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade added 0.28 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2014. Net trade deducted 1.02 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 1.64 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.03 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.77 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.28 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.28 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.28 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade added 0.36 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade deducted 1.61 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2016.  Net trade added 0.22 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017.  Net trade added 0.21 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2017. Net trade added 0.36 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade deducted 1,13 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2017. Manufacturing jobs not seasonally adjusted increased 198,000 from Dec 2016 to
    Dec 2017 or at the average monthly rate of 16,500.  Industrial production increased 0.9 percent in Dec 2017 and decreased 0.1 percent in Nov 2017 after increasing 1.8 percent in Oct 2017, with all data seasonally adjusted. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System conducted the annual revision of industrial production released on Mar 31, 2017 (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/revisions/Current/DefaultRev.htm):

“The Federal Reserve has revised its index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization.[1] On net, the revisions were small, and the contour of total IP is little changed. Total IP is still reported to have moved up about 22 percent from the end of the recession in mid-2009 through late 2014, to have declined in 2015, and to have moved sideways in 2016. The most notable difference between the current and the previous estimates is that total IP is now reported to have decreased about 2 3/4 percent in 2015, whereas it previously showed a decline of about 1 3/4 percent.[2] The incorporation of detailed data for manufacturing from the U.S. Census Bureau's 2015 Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM) accounts for the majority of the differences between the current and the previously published estimates. Capacity for total industry is now reported to have expanded about 1 percent in 2015, a lower rate of increase than was reported earlier. Capacity was little changed in 2016 and is expected to increase 1 percent in 2017. Compared with prior reports, the rates of change in 2016 and 2017 are now a little smaller. In the fourth quarter of 2016, capacity utilization for total industry stood at 75.8 percent, a rate 0.4 percentage point higher than previously published but still 4.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2016) average. Relative to earlier estimates, the utilization rates in recent years are now a little higher.” Manufacturing decreased 22.3 from the peak in Jun 2007 to the trough in Apr 2009 and increased 15.5 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Dec 2016. Manufacturing grew 18.3 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Dec 2017. Manufacturing in Dec 2017 is lower by 8.2 percent relative to the peak in Jun 2007. The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IVQ2017 would have accumulated to 34.4 percent. GDP in IVQ2017 would be $20,149.0 billion (in constant dollars of 2009) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $2876.5 billion than actual $17,272.5 billion. There are about two trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 22.6 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 13.3 percent of the effective labor force (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/01/twenty-three-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html). US GDP in IVQ2017 is 14.3 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $14,991.8 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $17,272.5 billion in IVQ2017 or 15.2 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.4 percent. Professor John H. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. Cochrane (2016May02) measures GDP growth in the US at average 3.5 percent per year from 1950 to 2000 and only at 1.76 percent per year from 2000 to 2015 with only at 2.0 percent annual equivalent in the current expansion. Cochrane (2016May02) proposes drastic changes in regulation and legal obstacles to private economic activity. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 3.1 percent per year from Dec 1919 to Dec 2017. Growth at 3.1 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output from 108.2393 in Dec 2007 to 146.8830 in Dec 2017. The actual index NSA in Dec 2017 is 103.381, which is 29.6 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 2.0 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2017. Using trend growth of 2.0 percent per year, the index would increase to 131.9431 in Dec 2017. The output of manufacturing at 103.381 in Dec 2017 is 21.6 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Table I-13 provides national income by industry without capital consumption adjustment (WCCA). “Private industries” or economic activities have share of 87.0 percent in IIIQ2017. Most of US national income is in the form of services. In Dec 2017, there were 148.346 million nonfarm jobs NSA in the US, according to estimates of the establishment survey of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm Table B-1). Total private jobs of 125.654 million NSA in Dec 2017 accounted for 84.7 percent of total nonfarm jobs of 148.346 million, of which 12.539 million, or 10.0 percent of total private jobs and 8.5 percent of total nonfarm jobs, were in manufacturing. Private service-providing jobs were 105.475 million NSA in Dec 2017, or 71.1 percent of total nonfarm jobs and 83.9 percent of total private-sector jobs. Manufacturing has share of 10.2 percent in US national income in IIIQ2017 and durable goods 5.9 percent, as shown in Table I-13. Most income in the US originates in services. Subsidies and similar measures designed to increase manufacturing jobs will not increase economic growth and employment and may actually reduce growth by diverting resources away from currently employment-creating activities because of the drain of taxation.

Table V-4, Growth of Trade and Contributions of Net Trade to GDP Growth, ∆% and % Points

Exports
M ∆%

Exports 12 M ∆%

Imports
M ∆%

Imports 12 M ∆%

USA

2.3 Nov

6.5

Jan-Oct

2.5 Nov

6.9

Jan-Oct

Japan

Dec 2017

9.3

Nov 2017

16.2

Oct 2017

14.0

Sep 2017

14.1

Aug 2017

18.1

Jul 2017

13.4

Jun 2017

9.7

May 2017

14.9

Apr 2017

7.5

Mar 2017

12.0

Feb 2017

11.3

Jan 2017

1.3

Dec 2016

5.4

Nov 2016 -0.4

Oct 2016

-10.3

Sep 2016

-6.9

Aug 2016

9.6

Jul 2016

-14.0

Jun 2016

-7.8

May 2016

-11.3

Apr 2016

-10.1

Mar 2016

-6.8

Feb 2016

-4.0

Jan 2016

-12.9

Dec 2015

-8.0

Nov 2015

-3.3

Oct 2015

-2.1

Sep 2015

0.6

Aug

3.1

Jul 2015

7.6

Jun 2015

9.5

May 2015

2.4

Apr

8.0

Mar

8.5

Feb

2.4

Jan

17.0

Dec

12.9

Nov

4.9

Oct

9.6

Sep

6.9

Aug

-1.3

Jul

3.9

Jun

-2.0

May 2014

-2.7

Apr 2014

5.1

Mar 2014

1.8

Feb 2014

9.5

Jan 2014

9.5

Dec 2013

15.3

Nov 2013

18.4

Oct 2013

18.6

Sep 2013

11.5

Aug 2013

14.7

Jul 2013

12.2

Jun 2013 7.4

May 2013

10.1

Apr 2013

3.8

Mar 2013

1.1

Feb 2013

-2.9

Jan 2013 6.4

Dec -5.8

Nov -4.1

Oct -6.5

Sep -10.3

Aug -5.8

Jul -8.1

Dec 2017

14.9

Nov 2017

17.2

Oct 2017

18.9

Sep 2017

12.0

Aug 2017

15.2

Jul 2017

16.3

Jun 2017

15.5

May 2017

17.8

Apr 2017

15.1

Mar 2017

15.8

Feb 2017

1.2

Jan 2017

8.5

Dec 2016

-2.6

Nov 2016

-8.8

Oct 2016

-16.5

Sep 2016

-16.3

Aug 2016

-17.3

Jul 2016

-24.7

Jun 2016

-18.8

May 2016

-13.8

Apr 2016

-23.3

Mar 2016

-14.9

Feb 2016

-14.2

Jan 2016

-18.0

Dec 2015

-18.0

Nov 2015

-10.2

Oct 2015

-13.4

Sep 2015

-11.1

Aug

-3.1

Jul 2015

-3.2

Jun 2015

-2.9

May 2015

-8.7

Apr

-4.2

Mar

-14.5

Feb

-3.6

Jan

-9.0

Dec

1.9

Nov

-1.7

Oct

2.7

Sep

6.2

Aug

-1.5

Jul

2.3

Jun

8.4

May 2014

-3.6

Apr 2013

3.4

Mar 2014

18.1

Feb 2014

9.0

Jan 2014

25.0

Dec 2013 24.7

Nov 2013

21.1

Oct 2013

26.1

Sep 2013

16.5

Aug 2013

16.0

Jul 2013

19.6

Jun 2013

11.8

May 2013

10.0

Apr 2013

9.4

Mar 2013

5.5

Feb 2013

7.3

Jan 2013 7.3

Dec 1.9

Nov 0.8

Oct -1.6

Sep 4.1

Aug -5.4

Jul 2.1

China

Jan-Dec 2017 7.9

Jan-Dec 2016 -7.7

Jan-Dec

2015 -2.8

2017

Dec

10.9

Nov

12.3

Oct

6.9

Sep

8.1

Aug

5.5

Jul

7.2

Jun

11.3

May

8.7

Apr

8.0

Mar

16.4

Feb

-1.3

Jan

7.9

2016

Dec

3.1

Nov

0.1

Oct

-7.3

Sep

-10.0

Aug

-2.8

Jul

-4.4

Jun

-4.8

May

-4.1

Apr

-1.8

Mar

11.5

Feb

-25.4

Jan

-11.2

2015

-1.4 Dec

-6.8 Nov

-6.9 Oct

-3.7 Sep

-5.5 Aug

-8.3 Jul

2.8 Jun

-2.5 May

-6.4 Apr

-15.0 Mar

48.3 Feb

-3.3 Jan

2014

9.7 Dec

4.7 Nov

11.6 Oct

15.3 Sep

9.4 Aug

14.5 Jul

7.2 Jun

7.0 May

0.9 Apr

-6.6 Mar

-18.1 Feb

10.6 Jan

2013

4.3 Dec

12.7 Nov

5.6 Oct

-0.3 Sep

7.2 Aug

5.1 Jul

-3.1 Jun

1.0 May

14.7 Apr

10.0 Mar

21.8 Feb

25.0 Jan

Jan-Dec 2017 15.9

Jan-Dec 2016 -5.5

Jan-Dec 2015 -14.1

2017

Dec

4.5

Nov

17.7

Oct

17.2

Sep

18.7

Aug

13.3

Jul

11.0

Jun

17.2

May

14.8

Apr

11.9

Mar

20.3

Feb

38.1

Jan

16.7

2016

Dec

-7.7

Nov

6.7

Oct

-1.4

Sep

-1.9

Aug

1.5

Jul

-12.5

Jun

-2.8

May

-0.4

Apr

-10.6

Mar

-7.6

Feb

-13.8

Jan

-18.8

2015

-7.6 Dec

-8.7 Nov

-18.8 Oct

-20.4 Sep

-13.8 Aug

-8.1 Jul

-6.1 Jun

-17.6 May

-12.7 Mar

-20.5 Feb

-19.9 Jan

2014

-2.4 Dec

-6.7 Nov

4.6 Oct

7.0 Sep

-2.4 Aug

-1.6 Jul

5.5 Jun

-1.6 May

-0.8 Apr

-11.3 Mar

10.1 Feb

10.0 Jan

2013

8.3 Dec

5.3 Nov

7.6 Oct

7.4 Sep

7.0 Aug

10.9 Jul

-0.7 Jun

-0.3 May

16.8 Apr

14.1 Mar

-15.2 Feb

28.8 Jan

Euro Area

7.7 12-M Nov

7.5 Jan-

Nov

7.3 12-M Nov

10.1 Jan-Nov

Germany

4.1 Nov CSA

8.2 Nov

2.3 Nov CSA

8.3 Nov

France

Nov

-1.6

1.4

-0.5

4.1

Italy Nov

2.1

9.7

1.4

8.4

UK

0.6 Nov

8.8 Sep 17-Nov 17 /Sep 16-Nov 16

1.6 Nov

5.4 Sep 17-Nov 17 /Sep 16-Nov 16

Net Trade % Points GDP Growth

Points

USA

IVQ2017

-1.13

IIIQ2017

0.36

IIQ2017

0.21

IQ2017

0.22

IVQ2016

-1.61

IIIQ2016

0.36

IIQ2016

0.28

IQ2016

-0.28

IVQ2015

-0.28

IIIQ2015

-0.77

IIQ2015

-0.03

IQ2015

-1.64

IVQ2014

-1.02

IIIQ2014

0.28

IIQ2014

-0.40

IQ2014

-1.14

IVQ2013

1.29

IIIQ2013

0.13

IIQ2013

-0.21

IQ2013

0.30

IVQ2012 +0.58

IIIQ2012

0.16

IIQ2012 0.28

IQ2012 -0.02

Japan

0.6

IQ2012

-1.9 IIQ2012

-2.0

IIIQ2012

-0.3 IVQ2012

1.3

IQ2013

0.0

IIQ2013

-1.4

IIIQ2013

-2.1

IVQ2013

-0.9

IQ2014

4.1

IIQ2014

-0.2

IIIQ2014

1.5

IVQ2014

-0.1

IQ2015

-0.4

IIQ2015

-0.4

IIIQ2015

-0.1

IVQ2015

1.2

IQ2016

0.5

IIQ2016

1.4

IIIQ2016

1.2

IVQ2016

0.4

IQ2017

-1.0

IIQ2017

2.0

IIIQ2017

Germany

IQ2012

0.8 IIQ2012 0.3 IIIQ2012 0.4 IVQ2012

-0.5

IQ2013

-0.3 IIQ2013

-0.4

IIIQ2013

0.0

IVQ2013

1.0

IQ2014

-0.1

IIQ2014

-0.3

IIIQ2014

0.7

IVQ2014

0.1

IQ2015

-0.5

IIQ2015

0.7

IIIQ2015

-0.3

IVQ2015

-0.5

IQ2016

-0.2

IIQ2016

0.7

IIIQ2016

-0.4

IVQ2016

-0.4

IQ2017

0.6

IIQ2017

-0.4

IIIQ2017

0.4

France

0.1 IIIQ2012

0.1 IVQ2012

-0.1 IQ2013

0.3

IIQ2013 -1.7

IIIQ2013

0.1

IVQ2013

-0.1

IQ2014

-0.2

IIQ2014

-0.2

IIIQ2014

0.2

IVQ2014

-0.2

IQ2015

0.4

IIQ2015

-0.6

IIIQ2015

-0.7

IVQ2015

-0.1

IQ2016

0.3

IIQ2016

-0.6

IIIQ2016

0.1

IVQ2016

-0.6

IQ2017

0.6

IIQ2017

-0.6

IIIQ2017

UK

0.7

IIQ2013

-1.7

IIIQ2013

0.1

IVQ2013

0.8

IQ2014

0.3

IIQ2014

-0.7

IIIQ2014

0.0

IVQ2014

-0.4

IQ2015

1.1

IIQ2015

-0.5

IIIQ2015

-0.4

IVQ2015

-0.5

IQ2016

0.5

IIQ2016

-1.5

IIIQ2016

1.7

IVQ2016

-0.2

IQ2017

0.4

IIQ2017

0.0

IIIQ2017

Sources: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/

The geographical breakdown of exports and imports of Japan with selected regions and countries is in Table V-5 for Dec 2017. The share of Asia in Japan’s trade is close to one-half for 56.3 percent of exports and 48.7 percent of imports. Within Asia, exports to China are 20.6 percent of total exports and imports from China 24.6 percent of total imports. While exports of Japan to China increased 15.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2017, imports from China increased 14.8 percent. The second largest export market for Japan in Dec 2017 is the US with share of 19.3 percent of total exports, which is close to that of China, and share of imports from the US of 10.1 percent in total imports. Japan’s exports to the US increased 3.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2017 and imports from the US increased 7.5 percent. Western Europe has share of 11.1 percent in Japan’s exports and of 12.3 percent in imports. Rates of growth of exports of Japan in Dec 2017 are 3.0 percent for exports to the US, 24.5 percent for exports to Brazil and 15.4 percent for exports to Germany. Comparisons relative to 2011 may have some bias because of the effects of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Deceleration of growth in China and the US and threat of recession in Europe can reduce world trade and economic activity. Growth rates of imports in the 12 months ending in Dec 2017 are mixed. Imports from Asia increased 15.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2017 while imports from China increased 14.8 percent. Data are in millions of yen, which may have effects of recent depreciation of the yen relative to the United States dollar (USD) and revaluation of the dollar relative to the euro.

Table V-5, Japan, Value and 12-Month Percentage Changes of Exports and Imports by Regions and Countries, ∆% and Millions of Yen

Dec 2017

Exports
Millions Yen

12 months ∆%

Imports Millions Yen

12 months ∆%

Total

7,302,059

9.3

6,943,088

14.9

Asia

4,111,658

% Total 56.3

9.9

3,379,723 % Total 48.7

15.7

China

1,507,151

% Total 20.6

15.8

1,704,859 % Total 24.6

14.8

USA

1,411,389

% Total 19.3

3.0

699,419 % Total

10.1

7.5

Canada

89,433

19.2

102,694

5.8

Brazil

34,526

24.5

92,583

60.6

Mexico

111,046

2.1

65,859

-1.6

Western Europe

813,176 % Total 11.1

12.3

852,335 % Total 12.3

8.2

Germany

207,564

15.4

250,309

15.2

France

70,196

14.7

106,555

2.6

UK

115,741

-0.6

70,590

18.4

Middle East

232,006

4.0

871,083

28.9

Australia

158,624

29.1

408,739

17.4

Source: Japan, Ministry of Finance http://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/info/index_e.htm

World trade projections of the IMF are in Table V-6. There is decreasing growth of the volume of world trade of goods and services from 4.2 percent in 2017 to 4.0 percent in 2018, stabilizing to 4.0 percent in 2019. Growth stabilizes at 4.0 percent on average from 2017 to 2022. World trade would be slower for advanced economies while emerging and developing economies (EMDE) experience faster growth. World economic slowdown would be more challenging with lower growth of world trade.

Table V-6, IMF, Projections of World Trade, USD Billions, USD/Barrel and Annual ∆%

2017

2018

2019

Average ∆% 2017-2022

World Trade Volume (Goods and Services)

4.2

4.0

4.0

4.0

Exports Goods & Services

4.2

3.9

3.7

3.9

Imports Goods & Services

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.1

Exports Goods & Services

G7

3.8

3.3

3.3

3.4

EMDE

4.8

4.5

4.3

4.5

Imports Goods & Services

G7

4.0

3.5

3.5

3.4

EMDE

4.4

4.9

4.9

4.9

Terms of Trade Goods & Services

G7

-0.8

0.4

-0.1

-0.1

EMDE

0.1

-0.5

0.0

0.0

World Crude Oil Price $/Barrel

50.28

50.17

50.51

51.15

Crude Oil: Simple Average of three spot prices: Dated Brent, West Texas Intermediate and the Dubai Fateh

Source: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook databank

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2017/02/weodata/index.aspx

The JP Morgan Global All-Industry Output Index of the JP Morgan Manufacturing and Services PMI™, produced by JP Morgan and HIS Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM, with high association with world GDP, increased to 54.4 in Dec from 54.1 in Nov, indicating expansion at faster rate (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/ab189b4473474815a7e93bb3a7effebc). This index has remained above the contraction territory of 50.0 during 63 consecutive months. The employment index increased from 52.7 in Nov to 52.8 in Dec with input prices rising at slower rate, new orders increasing at faster rate and output increasing at faster rate (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/ab189b4473474815a7e93bb3a7effebc). David Hensley, Director of Global Economic Coordination at JP Morgan, finds consistent growth with recent improvement (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/ab189b4473474815a7e93bb3a7effebc). The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI™, produced by JP Morgan and IHS Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM, increased to 54.5 in Dec from 54.1 in Nov (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/eb61a3cf235c4e5db08c649bef40de8c). New export orders increased. David Hensley, Director of Global Economic Coordination at JP Morgan, finds consistent growth (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/eb61a3cf235c4e5db08c649bef40de8c). The Markit Brazil Composite Output Index decreased from 49.8 in Nov to 48.8 in Dec, indicating contraction in activity of Brazil’s private sector (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8e425883fbc9482cb864c4d9a2561a0c). The Markit Brazil Services Business Activity index, compiled by Markit, increased from 46.9 in Nov to 47.4 in Dec indicating contraction of services activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8e425883fbc9482cb864c4d9a2561a0c). Pollyanna de Lima, Principal Economist at Markit, finds deteriorating services (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8e425883fbc9482cb864c4d9a2561a0c). The HIS Markit Brazil Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ IndexTM (PMI™) decreased from 53.5 in Nov to 52.4 in Dec, indicating manufacturing above neutral 50.0 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/a18467c97bea4e00bbaae35b7e607be9). Pollyanna De Lima, Economist at IHS Markit, finds improving direction in manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/a18467c97bea4e00bbaae35b7e607be9).

VA United States. The HIS Markit Flash US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) seasonally adjusted increased to 55.5 in Jan from 55.1 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/30ff1eb361264f21add9f4b6cb2fe250). New export orders increased. The HIS Markit Flash US Services PMI™ Business Activity Index decreased from 53.7 in Dec to 53.3 in Jan (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/30ff1eb361264f21add9f4b6cb2fe250). The IHS Markit Flash US Composite PMI™ Output Index decreased from 54.1 in Dec to 53.8 in Jan (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/30ff1eb361264f21add9f4b6cb2fe250). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds that the surveys are consistent with GDP growth. (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/30ff1eb361264f21add9f4b6cb2fe250). The HIS Markit US Composite PMI™ Output Index of Manufacturing and Services decreased to 54.1 in Dec from 54.5 in Nov (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4ec810d21d7f4b0d85c13517b95e5dfd). The HIS Markit US Services PMI™ Business Activity Index decreased from 54.5 in Nov to 52.4 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4ec810d21d7f4b0d85c13517b95e5dfd). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds the indexes suggesting growth at 2.0 to 2.5 percent in IVQ2017 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4ec810d21d7f4b0d85c13517b95e5dfd). The HIS Markit US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) increased to 55.1 in Dec from 53.9 in Nov (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/622e03c6223f472faa37c6e44f89a679). New foreign orders increased. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at HIS Markit, finds improving manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/622e03c6223f472faa37c6e44f89a679). The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Report on Business® increased 1.5-percentage points from 58.2 in Nov to 59.7 in Dec, which indicates faster growth (https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm?SSO=1). The index of new export orders increased 2.5 percentage points from 56.0 in Nov to 58.5 in Dec. The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report on Business® PMI decreased 1.5 percentage points from 57.4 in Nov to 55.9 in Dec, indicating growth of business activity/production during 101 consecutive months, while the index of new orders decreased 4.4 percentage points from 58.7 in Nov to 54.3 in Dec (https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm?navItemNumber=31002). Table USA provides the country economic indicators for the US.

Table USA, US Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index

Dec 12 months NSA ∆%: 2.1; ex food and energy ∆%: 1.8 Dec month SA ∆%: 0.1; ex food and energy ∆%: 0.3
Blog 1/21/18

Producer Price Index

Finished Goods

Dec 12-month NSA ∆%: 3.3; ex food and energy ∆% 2.0
Dec month SA ∆% -0.3; ex food and energy ∆%: 0.0

Final Demand

Dec 12-month NSA ∆%: 2.6; ex food and energy ∆% 2.3 Dec month SA ∆% -0.1; ex food and energy ∆%: -0.1
Blog 1/21/18

PCE Inflation

Nov 12-month NSA ∆%: headline 1.8; ex food and energy ∆% 1.5
Blog 12/31/17

Employment Situation

Household Survey: Dec Unemployment Rate SA 4.1%
Blog calculation People in Job Stress Dec: 22.6 million NSA, 13.3% of Labor Force
Establishment Survey:
Dec Nonfarm Jobs 148.000; Private 146,000 jobs created 
Nov 12-month Average Hourly Earnings Inflation Adjusted ∆%: 0.2
Blog 1/7/18

Nonfarm Hiring

Nonfarm Hiring fell from 63.5 million in 2006 to 58.7 million in 2014 or by 4.8 million and to 62.7 million in 2016 or by 0.8 million
Private-Sector Hiring No 2017 4.769 million higher by 2.5 percent than 4.654 million in Nov 2006 while population grew 26.044 million or 11.3 percent
Blog 1/14/18

GDP Growth

BEA Revised National Income Accounts
IQ2012/IQ2011 ∆%: 2.8

IIQ2012/IIQ2011 2.5

IIIQ2012/IIIQ2011 2.4

IVQ2012/IVQ2011 1.3

IQ2013/IQ2012 1.3

IIQ2013/IIQ2012 1.0

IIIQ2013/IIIQ2012 1.7

IVQ2013/IVQ2012 2.7

IQ2014/IQ2013 1.7

IIQ2014/IIQ2013 2.7

IIIQ2014/IIIQ2013 3.2

IVQ2014/IVQ2013 2.7

IQ2015/IQ2014 3.8

IIQ2015/IIQ2014 3.3

IIIQ2015/IIIQ2014 2.4

IVQ2015/IVQ2014 2.0

IQ2016/IQ2015 1.4

IIQ2016/IIQ2015 1.2

IIIQ2016/IIIQ2015 1.5

IVQ2016/IVQ2015 1.8

IQ2017/IQ2016 2.0

IIQ2017/IIQ2016 2.2

IIIQ2017/IIIQ2016 2.3

IVQ2017/IVQ2016 2.5

IQ2012 SAAR 2.7

IIQ2012 SAAR 1.9

IIIQ2012 SAAR 0.5

IVQ2012 SAAR 0.1

IQ2013 SAAR 2.8

IIQ2013 SAAR 0.8

IIIQ2013 SAAR 3.1

IVQ2013 SAAR 4.0

IQ2014 SAAR -0.9

IIQ2014 SAAR 4.6

IIIQ2014 SAAR 5.2

IVQ2014 SAAR 2.0

IQ2015 SAAR 3.2

IIQ2015 SAAR: 2.7

IIIQ2015 SAAR: 1.6

IVQ2015 SAAR: 0.5

IQ2016 SAAR: 0.6

IIQ2016 SAAR: 2.2

IIIQ2016 SAAR: 2.8

IVQ2016 SAAR 1.8

IQ2017 SAAR 1.2

IIQ2017 SAAR 3.1

IIIQ2017 SAAR 3.2

IVQ2017 SAAR 2.6
Blog 1/28/18

Real Private Fixed Investment

SAAR IVQ2017 ∆% 7.9 IVQ2007 to IVQ2017: 14.9% Blog 1/28/18

Corporate Profits

IIIQ2017 SAAR: Corporate Profits 4.3; Undistributed Profits 13.9 Blog 12/24/17

Personal Income and Consumption

Nov month ∆% SA Real Disposable Personal Income (RDPI) SA ∆% 0.1
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (RPCE): 0.4
12-month Nov NSA ∆%:
RDPI: 1.9; RPCE ∆%: 2.7
Blog 12/31/17

Quarterly Services Report

IIIQ17/IIIQ16 NSA ∆%:
Information 5.2

Financial & Insurance 6.8

Earlier Data:
Blog 3/22/15

Employment Cost Index

Compensation Private IIIQ2017 SA ∆%: 0.8 Sep 12 months ∆%: 2.5

Earlier Data:
Blog 2/1/15

Industrial Production

Dec month SA ∆%: 0.9
Dec 12 months SA ∆%: 3.6

Manufacturing Dec SA 0.1 ∆% Dec 12 months SA ∆% 2.4, NSA 2.4
Capacity Utilization: 77.9
Blog 1/21/18

Productivity and Costs

Nonfarm Business Productivity IIIQ2017∆% SAAE 3.0; IIIQ2017/IIIQ2016 ∆% 1.5; Unit Labor Costs SAAE IIIQ2017 ∆% -0.2; IIIQ2017/IIIQ2016 ∆%: -0.7

Blog 12/17/17

New York Fed Manufacturing Index

General Business Conditions from Dec 19.6 to Jan 17.7
New Orders: From Dec 19.0 to Jan 11.9
Blog 1/21/18

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index

General Index from Dec 27.9 to Jan 22.2
New Orders from Dec 28.2 to Jan 10.1
Blog 1/21/18

Manufacturing Shipments and Orders

Dec Orders SA ∆% 2.9 Ex Transport 0.6

Jan-Dec 17/Jan-Dec 16 NSA New Orders ∆% 5.8 Ex transport 6.3

Earlier data:
Blog 4/5/15

Durable Goods

Nov New Orders SA ∆%: 1.3; ex transport ∆%: -0.1
Jan-Nov 17/Jan-Nov 16 New Orders NSA ∆%: 5.4; ex transport ∆% 6.2

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/26/15

Sales of New Motor Vehicles

Jan-Dec 2017 17,230,436; Jan-Dec 2016 17,550,394. Dec 17 SAAR 17.85 million, Nov 17 SAAR 17.53 million, Dec 2016 SAAR 18.16 million

Blog 1/21/18

Sales of Merchant Wholesalers

Jan-Nov 2017/Jan-Nov 2016 NSA ∆%: Total 7.8; Durable Goods: 8.3; Nondurable
Goods: 7.4

EARLIER DATA:
Blog 4/12/15

Sales and Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers

Nov 17 12-M NSA ∆%: Sales Total Business 8.2; Manufacturers 7.8
Retailers 7.1; Merchant Wholesalers 9.7
Blog 1/21/18

Sales for Retail and Food Services

Jan-Dec 2017/Jan-Dec 2016 ∆%: Retail and Food Services 4.2; Retail ∆% 4.4
Blog 1/21/18

Value of Construction Put in Place

SAAR month SA Oct ∆%: 1.4 Jan-Oct 17/Jan-Oct 16 NSA: 4.1

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/5/15

Case-Shiller Home Prices

Oct 2017/Oct 2016 ∆% NSA: 10 Cities 6.0; 20 Cities: 6.4; National: 5.6
∆% Oct SA: 10 Cities 0.7; 20 Cities: 0.7
Blog 12/31/17

FHFA House Price Index Purchases Only

Nov SA ∆% 0.4;
12-month NSA ∆%: 6.6
Blog 1/28/18

New House Sales

Dec 2017 month SAAR ∆%: minus 9.3
Jan-Dec 2017/Jan-Dec 2016 NSA ∆%: 8.4
Blog 1/28/18

Housing Starts and Permits

Nov Starts month SA ∆% -8.2; Permits ∆%: -0.1
Jan-Nov 2017/Jan-Nov 2016 NSA ∆% Starts 2.4; Permits  ∆% 4.7

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/19/15

Rate of Homeownership

IIIQ2017 63.9

IIQ2017: 63.7

Blog 7/30/17

Trade Balance

Balance Nov SA -$50,497 million versus Oct -$48,914 million
Exports Nov SA ∆%: 2.3 Imports Nov SA ∆%: 2.5
Goods Exports Jan-Nov 2017/Jan-Nov 2016 NSA ∆%: 6.5
Goods Imports Jan-Oct 2017/Jan-Oct 2016 NSA ∆%: 6.9
Blog 1/14/18

Export and Import Prices

Dec 12-month NSA ∆%: Imports 3.0; Exports 2.6

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/12/15

Consumer Credit

Nov ∆% annual rate: Total 8.8; Revolving 13.3; Nonrevolving 7.2

Earlier Data:
Blog 5/10/15

Net Foreign Purchases of Long-term Treasury Securities

Nov Net Foreign Purchases of Long-term US Securities: $41.4 billion
Major Holders of Treasury Securities: China $1176.6 billion; Japan $1084.1 billion; Total Foreign US Treasury Holdings Oct $6343.1 billion
Blog 1/28/18

Treasury Budget

Fiscal Year 2018/2017 ∆% Dec: Receipts 3.9; Outlays 4.6; Individual Income Taxes 10.8
Deficit Fiscal Year 2011 $1,300 billion

Deficit Fiscal Year 2012 $1,087 billion

Deficit Fiscal Year 2013 $680 billion

Deficit Fiscal Year 2014 $485 billion

Deficit Fiscal Year 2015 $439 billion

Deficit Fiscal Year 2016 $586 billion

Deficit Fiscal Year 2017 $666 billion

Blog 1/21/2018

CBO Budget and Economic Outlook

2012 Deficit $1087 B 6.8% GDP Debt $11,281 B 70.4% GDP

2013 Deficit $680 B, 4.1% GDP Debt $11,983 B 72.6% GDP

2014 Deficit $485 B 2.8% GDP Debt $12,780 B 74.2% GDP

2015 Deficit $438 B 2.5% GDP Debt $13,117 B 73.3% GDP

2016 Deficit $587 3.2% GDP Debt $14,168.4 B 77.0% GDP

2027 Deficit $1,408 B, 5.0 % GDP Debt $24,893 B 88.9% GDP

2047: Long-term Debt/GDP 150.0%

Blog 8/26/12 11/18/12 2/10/13 9/22/13 2/16/14 8/24/14 9/14/14 3/1/15 6/21/15 1/3/16 4/10/16 7/24/16 1/8/17 4/2/17

Commercial Banks Assets and Liabilities

Dec 2017 SAAR ∆%: Securities 3.3 Loans 2.4 Cash Assets 20.8 Deposits -0.6

Blog 1/28/18

Flow of Funds Net Worth of Families and Nonprofits

IIIQ2017 ∆ since 2007

Assets +$31,473.4BN

Nonfinancial $5,443.0 BN

Real estate $4,175.1 BN

Financial +26,030.4 BN

Net Worth +$30,489.2 BN

Blog 12/31/17

Current Account Balance of Payments

IIIQ2017 -112.816 MM

% GDP 2.1

Blog 10/15/17 12/24/17

Collapse of United States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation

Blog 11/19/17

Squeeze of Economic Activity by Carry Trades

Blog 12/24/17

IMF View

World Real Economic Growth 2017 ∆% 3.6 Blog 10/29/17

Income, Poverty and Health Insurance in the United States

43.123 Million Below Poverty in 2015, 13.5% of Population

Median Family Income CPI-2015 Adjusted $56,516 in 2015 back to 1999 Levels

Uncovered by Health Insurance 28.966 Million in 2015

Blog 9/25/16

Monetary Policy and Cyclical Valuation of Risk Financial Assets

Blog 1/15/2017

Rules versus Discretionary Authorities in Monetary Policy

Blog 1/1/2017

Links to blog comments in Table USA: 1/21/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/01/dollar-devaluation-and-increasing.html

1/14/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/01/dollar-devaluation-and-rising.html

1/7/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/01/twenty-three-million-unemployed-or.html

12/31/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/dollar-devaluation-cyclically.html

12/24/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_23.html

12/17/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/fomc-increases-interest-rates-with.html

12/10/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

12/3/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

11/19/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/11/dollar-devaluation-and-decline-of.html

10/29/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/dollar-revaluation-and-increase-of.html

10/15/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

10/8/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

10/1/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/destruction-of-household-nonfinancial.html

7/30/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/data-dependent-monetary-policy-with_30.html

4/2/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/04/mediocre-cyclical-economic-growth-with.html

1/15/17 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/unconventional-monetary-policy-and.html

1/1/17 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/rules-versus-discretionary-authorities.html

12/25/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

10/16/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/10/imf-view-of-world-economy-and-finance.html

9/25/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/the-economic-outlook-is-inherently.html

7/24/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/unresolved-us-balance-of-payments.html

4/10/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/04/proceeding-cautiously-in-reducing.html

1/17/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/unconventional-monetary-policy-and.html

1/3/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/weakening-equities-and-dollar.html

10/11/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/10/interest-rate-policy-uncertainty-imf.html

6/21/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/fluctuating-financial-asset-valuations.html

5/10/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/quite-high-equity-valuations-and.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html

9/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitics-monetary-policy-and.html

8/24/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/monetary-policy-world-inflation-waves.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

9/22/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

2/10/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/united-states-unsustainable-fiscal.html

Risk aversion channels funds toward US long-term and short-term securities that finance the US balance of payments and fiscal deficits benefitting from risk flight to US dollar denominated assets. There are now temporary interruptions because of fear of rising interest rates that erode prices of US government securities because of mixed signals on monetary policy and exit from the Fed balance sheet of four trillion dollars of securities held outright. Net foreign purchases of US long-term securities (row C in Table VA-4) strengthened from $10.9 billion in Oct 2017 to $41.4 billion in Nov

2017. Foreign residents’ purchases minus sales of US long-term securities (row A in Table VA-4) in Oct 2017 of $10.5 billion strengthened to $34.8 billion in Nov 2017. Net US (residents) purchases of long-term foreign securities (row B in Table VA-4) strengthened from $15.7 billion in Oct 2017 to $22.7 billion in Nov 2017. Other transactions (row C2 in Table VA-4) changed from minus $15.4 billion in Oct 2017 to minus $16.1 billion in Nov 2017. In Nov 2017,

C = A + B + C2 = $34.8 billion + $22.7 billion - $16.1 billion = $41.4 billion

There are minor rounding errors. There is strengthening demand in Table VA-4 in Nov 2017 in A1 private purchases by residents overseas of US long-term securities of $33.8 billion of which weakening in A11 Treasury securities of minus $12.1 billion, weakening in A12 of $5.1 billion in agency securities, strengthening of

$28.8 billion of corporate bonds and weakening of $12.0 billion in equities. Worldwide risk aversion causes flight into US Treasury obligations with significant oscillations. Official purchases of securities in row A2 increased $1.0 billion with decrease of Treasury securities of $6.7 billion in Nov 2017. Official purchases of agency securities increased $7.1 billion in Nov 2017. Row D shows increase in Nov 2017 of $4.6 billion in purchases of short-term dollar denominated obligations. Foreign holdings of US Treasury bills increased $1.4 billion (row D11) with foreign official holdings increasing $7.4 billion while the category “other” increased $3.2 billion. Foreign private holdings of US Treasury bills decreased $6.1 billion in what could be arbitrage of duration exposures and international risks. Risk aversion of default losses in foreign securities dominates decisions to accept zero interest rates in Treasury securities with no perception of principal losses. In the case of long-term securities, investors prefer to sacrifice inflation and possible duration risk to avoid principal losses with significant oscillations

in risk perceptions.

Table VA-4, Net Cross-Borders Flows of US Long-Term Securities, Billion Dollars, NSA

Nov 2016 12 Months

Nov 2017 12 Months

Oct 2017

Nov 2017

A Foreign Purchases less Sales of
US LT Securities

27.7

365.6

10.5

34.8

A1 Private

387.1

445.5

28.5

33.8

A11 Treasury

58.2

139.0

-2.1

-12.1

A12 Agency

214.4

92.4

6.5

5.1

A13 Corporate Bonds

128.9

135.8

10.7

28.8

A14 Equities

-14.3

78.3

13.4

12.0

A2 Official

-359.4

-79.8

-18.1

1.0

A21 Treasury

-397.4

-125.5

-20.2

-6.7

A22 Agency

40.7

38.9

3.4

7.1

A23 Corporate Bonds

-4.2

1.5

-0.2

-0.1

A24 Equities

1.6

5.3

-1.1

0.7

B Net US Purchases of LT Foreign Securities

213.4

139.3

15.7

22.7

B1 Foreign Bonds

258.5

251.2

27.8

21.3

B2 Foreign Equities

-45.2

-111.8

-12.0

1.4

C1 Net Transactions

241.1

504.9

26.2

57.5

C2 Other

-268.2

-219.0

-15.4

-16.1

C Net Foreign Purchases of US LT Securities

-27.0

285.9

10.9

41.4

D Increase in Foreign Holdings of Dollar Denominated Short-term 

US Securities & Other Liab

65.1

111.0

47.6

4.6

D1 US Treasury Bills

-8.0

74.9

33.0

1.4

D11 Private

22.9

30.9

26.0

-6.1

D12 Official

-30.9

44.0

7.0

7.4

D2 Other

73.0

36.1

14.6

3.2

C1 = A + B; C = C1+C2

A = A1 + A2

A1 = A11 + A12 + A13 + A14

A2 = A21 + A22 + A23 + A24

B = B1 + B2

D = D1 + D2

Sources: United States Treasury

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Pages/ticpress.aspx

http://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/jl2609.aspx

Table VA-5 provides major foreign holders of US Treasury securities. China is the largest holder with $1176.6 billion in Nov 2017, decreasing 1.1 percent from $1189.2 billion in Oct 2017 while increasing $127.3 billion from Nov 2016 or 12.1 percent. The United States Treasury estimates US government debt held by private investors at $11,643 billion in Sep 2017 (Fiscal Year 2017). China’s holding of US Treasury securities represents 10.1 percent of US government marketable interest-bearing debt held by private investors (http://www.fms.treas.gov/bulletin/index.html). Min Zeng, writing on “China plays a big role as US Treasury yields fall,” on Jul 16, 2014, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/articles/china-plays-a-big-role-as-u-s-treasury-yields-fall-1405545034?tesla=y&mg=reno64-wsj), finds that acceleration in purchases of US Treasury securities by China has been an important factor in the decline of Treasury yields in 2014. Japan decreased its holdings from $1108.6 billion in Nov 2016 to $1084.1 billion in Nov 2017 or 2.2 percent. The combined holdings of China and Japan in Nov 2017 add to $2260.7 billion, which is equivalent to 19.4 percent of US government marketable interest-bearing securities held by investors of $11,643 billion in Sep 2017 (Fiscal Year 2017) (http://www.fms.treas.gov/bulletin/index.html). Total foreign holdings of Treasury securities increased from $5953.0 billion in Nov 2016 to $6343.1 billion in Nov 2017, or 6.6 percent. The US continues to finance its fiscal and balance of payments deficits with foreign savings (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007)). A point of saturation of holdings of US Treasury debt may be reached as foreign holders evaluate the threat of reduction of principal by dollar devaluation and reduction of prices by increases in yield, including possibly risk premium. Shultz et al (2012) find that the Fed financed three-quarters of the US deficit in fiscal year 2011, with foreign governments financing significant part of the remainder of the US deficit while the Fed owns one in six dollars of US national debt. Concentrations of debt in few holders are perilous because of sudden exodus in fear of devaluation and yield increases and the limit of refinancing old debt and placing new debt. In their classic work on “unpleasant monetarist arithmetic,” Sargent and Wallace (1981, 2) consider a regime of domination of monetary policy by fiscal policy (emphasis added):

“Imagine that fiscal policy dominates monetary policy. The fiscal authority independently sets its budgets, announcing all current and future deficits and surpluses and thus determining the amount of revenue that must be raised through bond sales and seignorage. Under this second coordination scheme, the monetary authority faces the constraints imposed by the demand for government bonds, for it must try to finance with seignorage any discrepancy between the revenue demanded by the fiscal authority and the amount of bonds that can be sold to the public. Suppose that the demand for government bonds implies an interest rate on bonds greater than the economy’s rate of growth. Then if the fiscal authority runs deficits, the monetary authority is unable to control either the growth rate of the monetary base or inflation forever. If the principal and interest due on these additional bonds are raised by selling still more bonds, so as to continue to hold down the growth of base money, then, because the interest rate on bonds is greater than the economy’s growth rate, the real stock of bonds will growth faster than the size of the economy. This cannot go on forever, since the demand for bonds places an upper limit on the stock of bonds relative to the size of the economy. Once that limit is reached, the principal and interest due on the bonds already sold to fight inflation must be financed, at least in part, by seignorage, requiring the creation of additional base money.”

Table VA-5, US, Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities $ Billions at End of Period

Nov 2017

Oct 2017

Nov 2016

Total

6343.1

6349.5

5953.0

China

1176.6

1189.2

1049.3

Japan

1084.1

1094.0

1108.6

Ireland

328.7

312.4

275.2

Cayman Islands

269.4

269.9

260.8

Brazil

265.3

270.0

258.3

Switzerland

250.9

254.0

230.3

United Kingdom

237.9

225.9

215.8

Luxembourg

218.3

217.9

222.4

Hong Kong

194.9

192.3

185.5

Taiwan

179.9

181.7

183,1

Sudi Arabia

149.0

145.2

100.1

India

140.8

141.4

118.7

Singapore

124.2

130.4

96.9

Foreign Official Holdings

4056.1

4079.1

3768.2

A. Treasury Bills

339.6

332.2

295.6

B. Treasury Bonds and Notes

3716.5

3746.9

3472.7

Source: United States Treasury

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Pages/ticpress.aspx

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Pages/index.aspx

http://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt

VB Japan. The GDP of Japan grew at 1.0 percent per year on average from 1991 to 2002, with the GDP implicit deflator falling at 0.8 percent per year on average. The average growth rate of Japan’s GDP was 4 percent per year on average from the middle of the 1970s to 1992 (Ito 2004). Low growth in Japan in the 1990s is commonly labeled as “the lost decade” (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 81-115). Table VB-GDP provides yearly growth rates of Japan’s GDP from 1995 to 2016. Growth weakened from 2.7 per cent in 1995 and 3.1 percent in 1996 to contractions of 1.1 percent in 1998 and 0.3 percent in 1999. Growth rates were below 2 percent with exception of 2.8 percent in 2000 and 2.2 percent in 2004. Japan’s GDP contracted sharply by 1.1 percent in 2008 and 5.4 percent in 2009. As in most advanced economies, growth was robust at 4.2 percent in 2010 but mediocre at minus 0.1 percent in 2011 because of the tsunami and 1.5 percent in 2012. Japan’s GDP grew 2.0 percent in 2013 and nearly stagnated in 2014 at 0.4. The GDP of Japan increased 1.4 percent in 2015 and 0.9 percent in 2016. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). Japan’s real GDP in calendar year 2016 is 3.5 percent higher than in calendar year 2007. Japan’s real GDP grew 10.4 percent from the trough of 2009 to 2016 at the average yearly rate of 1.4 percent (http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html).

Table VB-GDP, Japan, Yearly Percentage Change of GDP ∆%

Calendar Year

∆%

1995

2.7

1996

3.1

1997

1.1

1998

-1.1

1999

-0.3

2000

2.8

2001

0.4

2002

0.1

2003

1.5

2004

2.2

2005

1.7

2006

1.4

2007

1.7

2008

-1.1

2009

-5.4

2010

4.2

2011

-0.1

2012

1.5

2013

2.0

2014

0.4

2015

1.4

2016

0.9

Source: Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html

Table VB-BOJF provides the forecasts of economic activity and inflation in Japan by the majority of members of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, which is part of their Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf) with changes on Jul 21, 2015 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k150121a.pdf). For fiscal 2015, the forecast is of growth of GDP between 1.5 to 2.1 percent, with the all items CPI less fresh food 0.2 to 1.2 to 3.3 percent (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf). The critical difference is forecast of the CPI excluding fresh food of 0.2 to 1.2 percent in 2015 and 1.2 to 2.2 percent in 2016 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf). Consumer price inflation in Japan excluding fresh food was minus 0.4 percent in Mar 2014 and 2.2 percent in 12 months (http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1581.htm), significantly because of the increase of the tax on value added of consumption in Apr 2014. The new monetary policy of the Bank of Japan aims to increase inflation to 2 percent. These forecasts are biannual in Apr and Oct. The Cabinet Office, Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan released on Jan 22, 2013, a “Joint Statement of the Government and the Bank of Japan on Overcoming Deflation and Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130122c.pdf) with the important change of increasing the inflation target of monetary policy from 1 percent to 2 percent:

“The Bank of Japan conducts monetary policy based on the principle that the policy shall be aimed at achieving price stability, thereby contributing to the sound development of the national economy, and is responsible for maintaining financial system stability. The Bank aims to achieve price stability on a sustainable basis, given that there are various factors that affect prices in the short run.

The Bank recognizes that the inflation rate consistent with price stability on a sustainable basis will rise as efforts by a wide range of entities toward strengthening competitiveness and growth potential of Japan's economy make progress. Based on this recognition, the Bank sets the price stability target at 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index.

Under the price stability target specified above, the Bank will pursue monetary easing and aim to achieve this target at the earliest possible time. Taking into consideration that it will take considerable time before the effects of monetary policy permeate the economy, the Bank will ascertain whether there is any significant risk to the sustainability of economic growth, including from the accumulation of financial imbalances.”

The Bank of Japan also provided explicit analysis of its view on price stability in a “Background note regarding the Bank’s thinking on price stability” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/data/rel130123a1.pdf http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130123a.htm/). The Bank of Japan also amended “Principal terms and conditions for the Asset Purchase Program” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130122a.pdf): “Asset purchases and loan provision shall be conducted up to the maximum outstanding amounts by the end of 2013. From January 2014, the Bank shall purchase financial assets and provide loans every month, the amount of which shall be determined pursuant to the relevant rules of the Bank.”

Financial markets in Japan and worldwide were shocked by new bold measures of “quantitative and qualitative monetary easing” by the Bank of Japan (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The objective of policy is to “achieve the price stability target of 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) at the earliest possible time, with a time horizon of about two years” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The main elements of the new policy are as follows:

  1. Monetary Base Control. Most central banks in the world pursue interest rates instead of monetary aggregates, injecting bank reserves to lower interest rates to desired levels. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has shifted back to monetary aggregates, conducting money market operations with the objective of increasing base money, or monetary liabilities of the government, at the annual rate of 60 to 70 trillion yen. The BOJ estimates base money outstanding at “138 trillion yen at end-2012) and plans to increase it to “200 trillion yen at end-2012 and 270 trillion yen at end 2014” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
  2. Maturity Extension of Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds. Purchases of bonds will be extended even up to bonds with maturity of 40 years with the guideline of extending the average maturity of BOJ bond purchases from three to seven years. The BOJ estimates the current average maturity of Japanese government bonds (JGB) at around seven years. The BOJ plans to purchase about 7.5 trillion yen per month (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130404d.pdf). Takashi Nakamichi, Tatsuo Ito and Phred Dvorak, wiring on “Bank of Japan mounts bid for revival,” on Apr 4, 2013, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323646604578401633067110420.html), find that the limit of maturities of three years on purchases of JGBs was designed to avoid views that the BOJ would finance uncontrolled government deficits.
  3. Seigniorage. The BOJ is pursuing coordination with the government that will take measures to establish “sustainable fiscal structure with a view to ensuring the credibility of fiscal management” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
  4. Diversification of Asset Purchases. The BOJ will engage in transactions of exchange traded funds (ETF) and real estate investment trusts (REITS) and not solely on purchases of JGBs. Purchases of ETFs will be at an annual rate of increase of one trillion yen and purchases of REITS at 30 billion yen.
  5. Bank Lending Facility and Growth Supporting Funding Facility. At the meeting on Feb 18, the Bank of Japan doubled the scale of these lending facilities to prevent their expiration in the near future (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140218a.pdf).

Table VB-BOJF provides the forecasts of economic activity and inflation in Japan by the majority of members of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, which is part of their Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1701b.pdf) with changes on Feb 1, 2017 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1604b.pdf). On Jun 19, 2015, the Bank of Japan announced a “New Framework for Monetary Policy Meetings,” which provides for quarterly release of the forecasts of the economy and prices beginning in Jan 2016 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/rel150619a.pdf). For fiscal 2015, the forecast is of growth of GDP between 0.7 to 0.7 percent, with the all items CPI less fresh food of 0.0 percent (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1604b.pdf). The critical difference is forecast of the CPI excluding fresh food of 0.0 to 0.2 percent in 2016 and 1.8 to 3.0 percent in 2017 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1604b.pdf). Consumer price inflation in Japan excluding fresh food was 0.1 percent in Mar 2016 and minus 0.3 percent in 12 months (http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1581.htm). The CPI increased significantly because of the increase of the tax on value added of consumption in Apr 2014. The new monetary policy of the Bank of Japan aims to increase inflation to 2 percent. These forecasts are biannual in Apr and Oct. The Cabinet Office, Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan released on Jan 22, 2013, a “Joint Statement of the Government and the Bank of Japan on Overcoming Deflation and Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130122c.pdf) with the important change of increasing the inflation target of monetary policy from 1 percent to 2 percent:

“The Bank of Japan conducts monetary policy based on the principle that the policy shall be aimed at achieving price stability, thereby contributing to the sound development of the national economy, and is responsible for maintaining financial system stability. The Bank aims to achieve price stability on a sustainable basis, given that there are various factors that affect prices in the short run.

The Bank recognizes that the inflation rate consistent with price stability on a sustainable basis will rise as efforts by a wide range of entities toward strengthening competitiveness and growth potential of Japan's economy make progress. Based on this recognition, the Bank sets the price stability target at 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index.

Under the price stability target specified above, the Bank will pursue monetary easing and aim to achieve this target at the earliest possible time. Taking into consideration that it will take considerable time before the effects of monetary policy permeate the economy, the Bank will ascertain whether there is any significant risk to the sustainability of economic growth, including from the accumulation of financial imbalances.”

The Bank of Japan also provided explicit analysis of its view on price stability in a “Background note regarding the Bank’s thinking on price stability” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/data/rel130123a1.pdf http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130123a.htm/). The Bank of Japan also amended “Principal terms and conditions for the Asset Purchase Program” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130122a.pdf): “Asset purchases and loan provision shall be conducted up to the maximum outstanding amounts by the end of 2013. From January 2014, the Bank shall purchase financial assets and provide loans every month, the amount of which shall be determined pursuant to the relevant rules of the Bank.”

Financial markets in Japan and worldwide were shocked by new bold measures of “quantitative and qualitative monetary easing” by the Bank of Japan (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The objective of policy is to “achieve the price stability target of 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) at the earliest possible time, with a time horizon of about two years” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The main elements of the new policy are as follows:

  1. Monetary Base Control. Most central banks in the world pursue interest rates instead of monetary aggregates, injecting bank reserves to lower interest rates to desired levels. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has shifted back to monetary aggregates, conducting money market operations with the objective of increasing base money, or monetary liabilities of the government, at the annual rate of 60 to 70 trillion yen. The BOJ estimates base money outstanding at “138 trillion yen at end-2012) and plans to increase it to “200 trillion yen at end-2012 and 270 trillion yen at end 2014” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
  2. Maturity Extension of Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds. Purchases of bonds will be extended even up to bonds with maturity of 40 years with the guideline of extending the average maturity of BOJ bond purchases from three to seven years. The BOJ estimates the current average maturity of Japanese government bonds (JGB) at around seven years. The BOJ plans to purchase about 7.5 trillion yen per month (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130404d.pdf). Takashi Nakamichi, Tatsuo Ito and Phred Dvorak, wiring on “Bank of Japan mounts bid for revival,” on Apr 4, 2013, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323646604578401633067110420.html), find that the limit of maturities of three years on purchases of JGBs was designed to avoid views that the BOJ would finance uncontrolled government deficits.
  3. Seigniorage. The BOJ is pursuing coordination with the government that will take measures to establish “sustainable fiscal structure with a view to ensuring the credibility of fiscal management” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
  4. Diversification of Asset Purchases. The BOJ will engage in transactions of exchange traded funds (ETF) and real estate investment trusts (REITS) and not solely on purchases of JGBs. Purchases of ETFs will be at an annual rate of increase of one trillion yen and purchases of REITS at 30 billion yen.
  5. Bank Lending Facility and Growth Supporting Funding Facility. At the meeting on Feb 18, the Bank of Japan doubled the scale of these lending facilities to prevent their expiration in the near future (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140218a.pdf).
  6. Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Negative Nominal Interest Rate. On January 29, 2016, the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan introduced a new policy to attain the “price stability target of 2 percent at the earliest possible time” (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2016/k160129a.pdf). The new framework consists of three dimensions: quantity, quality and interest rate. The interest rate dimension consists of rates paid to current accounts that financial institutions hold at the Bank of Japan of three tiers zero, positive and minus 0.1 percent. The quantitative dimension consists of increasing the monetary base at the annual rate of 80 trillion yen. The qualitative dimension consists of purchases by the Bank of Japan of Japanese government bonds (JGBs), exchange traded funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITS).
  7. Quantitative and Qualitative Easing with Yield Curve Control. The Bank of Japan introduced a new approach, QQE with Yield Curve Control (“Quantitative and Qualitative Easing with Yield Curve Control”) at its policy meeting on Sep 21, 2016 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2016/k160921a.pdf). The policy consists of two measures. First “yield curve control” consists of controlling the long-term and short-term interest rates. The bank will fix the interest rates of policy balances held by financial institutions at the BOJ at minus 0.1 percent and will purchase Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) in the amount required to maintain the yield of the 10-year JGB at around zero percent. Second, “the inflation-overshooting commitment” consists of increasing base money to maintain the CPI price stability target above 2 percent.

Table VB-BOJF, Bank of Japan, Forecasts of the Majority of Members of the Policy Board, % Year on Year

Fiscal Year
Date of Forecast

Real GDP

CPI All Items Less Fresh Food

Excluding Effects of Consumption Tax Hikes

2013

Apr 2014

+2.2 to +2.3
[+2.2]

+0.8

Jan 2014

+2.5 to +2.9

[+2.7]

+0.7 to +0.9

[+0.7]

Oct 2013

+2.6 to +3.0

[+2.7]

+0.6 to +1.0

[+0.7]

Jul 2013

+2.5 to +3.0

[+2.8]

+0.5 to +0.8

[+0.6]

2014

Apr 2015

-1.0 to -0.8

[-0.9]

+2.8

+0.8

Jan 2015

-0.6 to -0.4

[-0.5]

+2.9 to +3.2

[+2.9]

+0.9 to +1.2

[+0.9]

Oct 2014

+0.2 to +0.7

[+0.5]

+3.1 to +3.4

[+3.2]

+1.1 to +1.4

[+1.2]

Jul 2014

+0.6 to +1.3

[+1.0]

+3.2 to +3.5

[+3.3]

+1.2 to +1.5

[+1.3]

Apr 2014

+0.8 to +1.3
[+1.1]

+3.0 to +3.5
[+3.3]

+1.0 to +1.5
[+1.3]

Jan 2014

+0.9 to 1.5

[+1.4]

+2.9 to +3.6

[+3.3]

+0.9 to +1.6

[+1.3]

Oct 2013

+0.9 to +1.5

[+1.5]

+2.8 to +3.6

[+3.3]

+0.8 to +1.6

[+1.3]

Jul 2013

+0.8 to +1.5

[+1.3]

+2.7 to +3.6

[+3.3]

+0.7 to +1.6

[+1.3]

2015

Feb 2016

+0.7 to +0.7

[+0.7]

0.0

Jan 2016

+1.0 to +1.3

[+1.1]

0.0 to 0.2

[+0.1]

Oct 2015

+0.8 to +1.4

[+1.2]

0.0 to +0.4

[+0.1

Jul 2015

+1.5 to +1.9

[+1.7]

+0.3 to +1.0

[+0.7]

Apr 2015

+1.5 to +2.1

[+2.0]

+0.2 to 1.2

[+0.8]

+0.2 to 1.2

[+0.8]

Jan 2015

+1.8 to +2.3

[+2.1]

+0.4 to +1.3

[+1.0]

+0.4 to +1.3

[+1.0]

Oct 2014

+1.2 to +1.7

[+1.5]

+1.8 to 2.6

[+2.4]

+1.1 to +1.9

[+1.7]

Jul 2014

+1.2 to +1.6

[+1.5]

+1.9 to +2.8

[+2.6]

+1.2 to +2.1

[+1.9]

Apr 2014

+1.2 to +1.5
[+1.5]

+1.9 to +2.8
[+2.6]

+1.2 to +2.1
[+1.9]

Jan 2014

+1.2 to +1.8

[+1.5]

+1.7 to +2.9

[+2.6]

+1.0 to +2.2

[+1.9]

Oct 2013

+1.3 to +1.8

[+1.5]

+1.6 to +2.9

[+2.6]

+0.9 to +2.2

[+1.9]

Jul 2013

+1.3 to +1.9 [+1.5]

+1.6 to +2.9 [+2.6]

+0.9 to +2.2 [+1.9]

2016

Apr 2017

+1.4 to +1.4

[+1.4]

-0.3

Feb 2017

+1.2 to +1.5

[+1.4]

-0.2 to -0.1

[-0.2]

Jul 2016

+0.8 to +1.0

[+1.0]

0.0 to +0.3

[0.5]

0.0 to +0.3

[0.5]

Apr 2016

+0.8 to +1.4

[+1.2]

0.0 to +0.8

[+0.5]

0.0 to +0.8

[+0.5]

Jan 2016

+1.0 to +1.7

[+1.5]

0.2 to +1.2

[+0.8]

Oct 2015

+1.2 to +1.6

[+1.4]

+0.8 to +1.5

[+1.4]

Jul 2015

+1.5 to 1.7

[+1.5]

+1.2 to +2.1

[+1.9]

Apr 2015

+1.4 to +1.8

[+1.5]

+1.2 to +2.2

[+2.0]

+1.2 to +2.2

[+2.0]

Jan 2015

+1.5 to +1.7

[+1.6]

+1.5 to +2.3

[+2.2]

+1.5 to +2.3

[+2.2]

Oct 2014

+1.0 to +1.4

[+1.2]

+1.9 to 3.0

[+2.8]

+1.2 to 2.3

[+2.1]

Jul 2014

+1.0 to +1.5

[+1.3]

+2.0 to +3.0

[+2.8]

+1.3 to +2.3

[+2.1]

Apr 2014

+1.0 to +1.5
[+1.3]

+2.0 to +3.0
[+2.8]

+1.3 to +2.3
[+2.1]

2017

Apr 2017

+1.4 to +1.6

[+1.6]

+0.6 to +1.6

[+1.4]

Feb 2017

+1.3 to +1.6

[+1.5]

+0.8 to +1.6

[+1.5]

Jul 2016

1.0 to +1.5
[+1.3]

+0.8 to +1.8
[+1.7]

+0.8 to +1.8
[+1.7]

Apr 2016

0.0 to + +0.3

[+0.1]

1.8 to +3.0

[+2.7]

0.8 to +2.0

[+1.7

Jan 2016

+0.1 to + 0.5

[+0.3]

+2.0 to +3.1

[+2.8]

+ 1.0 to +2.1

[+1.8]

Oct 2015

+0.1 to +0.5

[+0.3]

+2.5 to +3.4

[+3.1]

+1.2 to 2.1

[+1.8]

Jul 2015

+0.1 to +0.5

[+0.2]

+2.7 to +3.4

[+3.1]

+1.4 to +2.1

[+1.8]

Apr 2015

+0.1 to +0.5

[+0.2]

+2.7 to +3.4

[+3.2]

+1.4 to +2.1

[+1.9]

2018

Apr 2017

+1.1 to +1.3

[+1.3]

+0.8 to +1.9

[+1.7]

Feb 2017

+1.0 to +1.2

[+1.1]

+0.9 to +1.9

[+1.7]

Jul 2016

+0.8 to +1.0
[+0.9]

+1.0 to +2.0
[+1.9]

+1.0 to +2.0
[+1.9]

Apr 2016

+0.6 to +1.2

[+1.0]

+1.0 to +2.1

[+1.9]

+1.0 to +2.1

[+1.9]

2019

Apr 2017

+0.6 to +0.7

[+0.7]

+1.4 to +2.5

[+2.4]

+0.9 to +2.0

[+1.9]

Figures in brackets are the median of forecasts of Policy Board members

Source: Policy Board, Bank of Japan

Figures in brackets are the median of forecasts of Policy Board members

Source: Policy Board, Bank of Japan

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k150121a.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140715a.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1510b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1601b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1604b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1607b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1701b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1704b.pdf

The Nikkei Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI Index™ with the Flash Japan

Manufacturing PMI™ increased from 54.0 in Dec to 54.4 in Jan

(https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/aa2d5cf20e6b44899d863cff892fa4c6). New export orders increased. Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS

Markit, finds growth conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/aa2d5cf20e6b44899d863cff892fa4c6).The Nikkei Composite Output PMI Index did not change from 52.2 in Nov to 52.2 in Dec, indicating continuing business activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/647d37ed6935467ba6c1318c23c7c5bc). The Nikkei Business Activity Index of Services decreased to 51.1 in Dec from 51.2 in Nov (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/647d37ed6935467ba6c1318c23c7c5bc). Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, finds continuing business activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/647d37ed6935467ba6c1318c23c7c5bc). The Nikkei Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™), seasonally adjusted, increased from 53.6 in Nov to 54.0 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/da697ef0585a463185102452d9795e5c). New orders increased while new foreign orders expanded. Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, finds consistent conditions in manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/da697ef0585a463185102452d9795e5c). Table JPY provides the country data table for Japan.

Table JPY, Japan, Economic Indicators

Historical GDP and CPI

1981-2010 Real GDP Growth and CPI Inflation 1981-2010
Blog 8/9/11 Table 26

Corporate Goods Prices

Dec ∆% 0.2
12 months ∆% 3.1
Blog 1/21/18

Consumer Price Index

Nov NSA ∆% 0.4; Nov 12 months NSA ∆% 0.6
Blog 12/31/17

Real GDP Growth

IIIQ2017 ∆%: 0.6 on IIQ2017; IIIQ2017 SAAR 2.5;
∆% from quarter a year earlier: 2.1 %
Blog 6/16/13 8/18/13 9/15/13 11/17/13 12/15/13 2/23/14 3/16/14 5/18/14 6/15/14 8/17/14 9/14/14 11/23/14 12/14/14 2/22/15 3/15/15 5/24/15 6/14/15 8/23/15 9/13/15 11/22/15 12/13/15 2/21/16 3/13/16 5/22/16 6/12/16 8/21/16 9/11/16 11/20/16 12/11/16 2/19/17 3/12/17 5/21/17 6/11/17 8/20/17 9/10/17 11/26/17 12/17/17

Employment Report

Nov Unemployed 1.90 million

Change in unemployed since last year: -190 thousand
Unemployment rate: 2.7%
Blog 12/31/17

All Industry Indices

Nov month SA ∆% 1.0
12-month NSA ∆% 2.1

Earlier Data:

Blog 4/26/15

Industrial Production

Nov SA month ∆%: 0.6
Nov 12-month NSA ∆% 3.7

Earlier Data:
Blog 3/29/15

Machine Orders

Total Nov ∆% 11.8

Private ∆%: 10.4 Nov ∆% Excluding Volatile Orders 5.7

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/19/15

Tertiary Index

Oct month SA ∆% 0.3
Oct 12 months NSA ∆% 1.1

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/26/15

Wholesale and Retail Sales

Nov 12 months:
Total ∆%: 4.6
Wholesale ∆%: 5.7
Retail ∆%: 2.2

Earlier Data:
Blog 3/29/15

Family Income and Expenditure Survey

Oct 12-month ∆% total nominal consumption 2.4, real 1.7

Earlier Data:

Blog 3/29/15

Trade Balance

Exports Dec 12 months ∆%: 9.3 Imports Dec 12 months ∆% 14.9

Earlier Data:

Blog 4/26/15

Links to blog comments in Table JPY: 1/21/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/01/dollar-devaluation-and-increasing.html

12/31/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/dollar-devaluation-cyclically.html

12/24/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_23.html

12/17/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/fomc-increases-interest-rates-with.html

12/10/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

9/10/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

8/20/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

5/21/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/dollar-devaluation-world-inflation.html

3/12/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/increasing-interest-rates-twenty-four.html

12/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/rising-values-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/20/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/interest-rate-increase-could-well.html

9/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/interest-rate-uncertainty-and-valuation.html

8/21/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/interest-rate-policy-uncertainty-and.html

6/12/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/considerable-uncertainty-about-economic.html

5/22/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/most-fomc-participants-judged-that-if.html

3/13/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/monetary-policy-and-fluctuations-of_13.html

12/13/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/liftoff-of-interest-rates-with-volatile_17.html

11/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-liftoff-followed-by.html

9/13/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what_13.html

08/23/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/global-decline-of-values-of-financial.html

6/14/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/volatility-of-financial-asset.html

5/24/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/interest-rate-policy-and-dollar.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

3/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

2/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html

12/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/global-financial-and-economic-risk.html

11/23/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.htm

9/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitics-monetary-policy-and.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

6/15/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financialgeopolitical-risks-recovery.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html

2/23/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html

12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

VC China. China estimates an index of nonmanufacturing purchasing managers based on a sample of 1200 nonmanufacturing enterprises across the country (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Table CIPMNM provides this index and components. The total index increased from 55.7 in Jan 2011 to 58.0 in Mar 2012, decreasing to 53.9 in Aug 2013. The index decreased from 56.0 in Nov 2013 to 54.6 in Dec 2013, easing to 53.4 in Jan 2014. The index moved to 55.0 in Dec 2017. The index of new orders increased from 52.2 in Jan 2012 to 54.3 in Dec 2012 but fell to 50.1 in May 2013, barely above the neutral frontier of 50.0. The index of new orders stabilized at 51.0 in Nov-Dec 2013, easing to 50.9 in Jan 2014. The index of new orders moved to 52.0 in Dec 2017.

Table CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted

Total Index

New Orders

Interm.
Input Prices

Subs Prices

Exp

Dec 2017

55.0

52.0

54.8

52.6

60.9

Nov

54.8

51.8

56.2

52.8

61.6

Oct

54.3

51.1

54.3

51.6

60.6

Sep

55.4

52.3

56.1

51.7

61.7

Aug

53.4

50.9

54.4

51.5

61.0

Jul

54.5

51.1

53.1

50.9

61.1

Jun

54.9

51.4

51.2

49.3

61.1

May

54.5

50.9

51.1

48.8

60.2

Apr

54.0

50.5

51.7

50.2

59.7

Mar

55.1

51.9

52.3

49.7

61.3

Feb

54.2

51.2

53.7

51.4

62.4

Jan

54.6

51.3

55.1

51.0

58.9

Dec 2016

54.5

52.1

56.2

51.9

59.5

Nov

54.7

51.8

53.5

51.4

60.7

Oct

54.0

50.9

53.7

51.5

60.6

Sep

53.7

51.4

51.7

50.1

61.1

Aug

53.5

49.8

52.6

50.4

59.4

Jul

53.9

49.9

51.4

49.5

59.5

Jun

53.7

50.8

51.6

50.6

58.6

May

53.1

49.2

51.6

49.8

57.8

Apr

53.5

48.7

52.1

49.1

59.1

Mar

53.8

50.8

51.4

49.5

59.0

Feb

52.7

48.7

50.5

48.3

59.5

Jan

53.5

49.6

49.9

47.7

58.4

Dec2015

54.4

51.7

49.0

48.2

58.3

Nov

53.6

50.2

49.3

47.7

60.0

Oct

53.1

51.2

51.2

48.8

61.1

Sep

53.4

50.2

50.8

47.9

60.0

Aug

53.4

49.6

49.6

47.8

59.7

Jul

53.9

50.1

48.9

47.4

60.0

Jun

53.8

51.3

50.6

48.7

59.7

May

53.2

49.5

52.8

50.4

60.1

Apr

53.4

49.1

50.8

48.9

60.0

Mar

53.7

50.3

50.0

48.4

58.8

Feb

53.9

51.2

52.5

51.2

58.7

Jan

53.7

50.2

47.6

46.9

59.6

Dec 2014

54.1

50.5

50.1

47.3

59.5

Nov

53.9

50.1

50.6

47.7

59.7

Oct

53.8

51.0

52.0

48.8

59.9

Sep

54.0

49.5

49.8

47.3

60.9

Aug

54.4

50.0

52.2

48.3

61.2

Jul

54.2

50.7

53.4

49.5

61.5

Jun

55.0

50.7

56.0

50.8

60.4

May

55.5

52.7

54.5

49.0

60.7

Apr

54.8

50.8

52.4

49.4

61.5

Mar

54.5

50.8

52.8

49.5

61.5

Feb

55.0

51.4

52.1

49.0

59.9

Jan

53.4

50.9

54.5

50.1

58.1

Dec 2013

54.6

51.0

56.9

52.0

58.7

Nov

56.0

51.0

54.8

49.5

61.3

Oct

56.3

51.6

56.1

51.4

60.5

Sep

55.4

53.4

56.7

50.6

60.1

Aug

53.9

50.9

57.1

51.2

62.9

Jul

54.1

50.3

58.2

52.4

63.9

Jun

53.9

50.3

55.0

50.6

61.8

May

54.3

50.1

54.4

50.7

62.9

Apr

54.5

50.9

51.1

47.6

62.5

Mar

55.6

52.0

55.3

50.0

62.4

Feb

54.5

51.8

56.2

51.1

62.7

Jan

56.2

53.7

58.2

50.9

61.4

Dec 2012

56.1

54.3

53.8

50.0

64.6

Nov

55.6

53.2

52.5

48.4

64.6

Oct

55.5

51.6

58.1

50.5

63.4

Sep

53.7

51.8

57.5

51.3

60.9

Aug

56.3

52.7

57.6

51.2

63.2

Jul

55.6

53.2

49.7

48.7

63.9

Jun

56.7

53.7

52.1

48.6

65.5

May

55.2

52.5

53.6

48.5

65.4

Apr

56.1

52.7

57.9

50.3

66.1

Mar

58.0

53.5

60.2

52.0

66.6

Feb

57.3

52.7

59.0

51.2

63.8

Jan

55.7

52.2

58.2

51.1

65.3

Notes: Interm.: Intermediate; Subs: Subscription; Exp: Business Expectations

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart CIPMNM provides China’s nonmanufacturing purchasing managers’ index. The index fell from 56.0 in Oct 2013 to 55.0 in Dec 2017.

Chart CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Table CIPMMFG provides the index of purchasing managers of manufacturing seasonally adjusted of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The general index (IPM) rose from 50.5 in Jan 2012 to 53.3 in Apr 2012, falling to 49.2 in Aug 2012, rebounding to 50.6 in Dec 2012. The index fell to 50.3 in Jul 2013, barely above the neutral frontier at 50.0, recovering to 51.4 in Nov 2013 but falling to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.5 in Jan 2014, 50.1 in Dec 2014 and 51.6 in Dec 2017. The index of new orders fell from 54.5 in Apr 2012 to 51.2 in Dec 2012. The index of new orders fell from 52.3 in Nov 2013 to 52.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.9 in Jan 2014 and moved to 50.4 in Dec 2014. The index moved to 53.4 in Dec 2017.

Table CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted

IPM

PI

NOI

INV

EMP

SDEL

2017

Dec

51.6

54.0

53.4

48.0

48.5

49.3

Nov

51.8

54.3

53.6

48.4

48.8

49.5

Oct

51.6

53.4

52.9

48.6

49.0

48.7

Sep

52.4

54.7

54.8

48.9

49.0

49.3

Aug

51.7

54.1

53.1

48.3

49.1

49.3

Jul

51.4

53.5

52.8

48.5

49.2

50.1

Jun

51.7

54.4

53.1

48.6

49.0

49.9

May

51.2

53.4

52.3

48.5

49.4

50.2

Apr

51.2

53.8

52.3

48.3

49.2

50.5

Mar

51.8

54.2

53.3

48.3

50.0

50.3

Feb

51.6

53.7

53.0

48.6

49.7

50.5

Jan

51.3

53.1

52.8

48.0

49.2

49.8

2016

Dec

51.4

53.3

53.2

48.0

48.9

50.0

Nov

51.7

53.9

53.2

48.4

49.2

49.7

Oct

51.2

53.3

52.8

48.1

48.8

50.2

Sep

50.4

52.8

50.9

47.4

48.6

49.9

Aug

50.4

52.6

51.3

47.6

48.4

50.6

Jul

49.9

52.1

50.4

47.3

48.2

50.5

Jun

50.0

52.5

50.5

47.0

47.9

50.7

May

50.1

52.3

50.7

47.6

48.2

50.4

Apr

50.1

52.2

51.0

47.4

47.8

50.1

Mar

50.2

52.3

51.4

48.2

48.1

51.3

Feb

49.0

50.2

48.6

48.0

47.6

49.8

Jan

49.4

51.4

49.5

46.8

47.8

50.5

2015

Dec

49.7

52.2

50.2

47.6

47.4

50.7

Nov

49.6

51.9

49.8

47.1

47.6

50.6

Oct

49.8

52.2

50.3

47.2

47.8

50.6

Sep

49.8

52.3

50.2

47.5

47.9

50.8

Aug

49.7

51.7

49.7

48.3

47.9

50.6

Jul

50.0

52.4

49.9

48.4

48.0

50.4

Jun

50.2

52.9

50.1

48.7

48.1

50.3

May

50.2

52.9

50.6

48.2

48.2

50.9

Apr

50.1

52.6

50.2

48.2

48.0

50.4

Mar

50.1

52.1

50.2

48.0

48.4

50.1

Feb

49.9

51.4

50.4

48.2

47.8

49.9

Jan

49.8

51.7

50.2

47.3

47.9

50.2

2014

Dec

50.1

52.2

50.4

47.5

48.1

49.9

Nov

50.3

52.5

50.9

47.7

48.2

50.3

Oct

50.8

53.1

51.6

48.4

48.4

50.1

Sep

51.1

53.6

52.2

48.8

48.2

50.1

Aug

51.1

53.2

52.5

48.6

48.2

50.0

Jul

51.7

54.2

53.6

49.0

48.3

50.2

Jun

51.0

53.0

52.8

48.0

48.6

50.5

May

50.8

52.8

52.3

48.0

48.2

50.3

Apr

50.4

52.5

51.2

48.1

48.3

50.1

Mar

50.3

52.7

50.6

47.8

48.3

49.8

Feb

50.2

52.6

50.5

47.4

48.0

49.9

Jan

50.5

53.0

50.9

47.8

48.2

49.8

Dec 2013

51.0

53.9

52.0

47.6

48.7

50.5

Nov

51.4

54.5

52.3

47.8

49.6

50.6

Oct

51.4

54.4

52.5

48.6

49.2

50.8

Sep

51.1

52.9

52.8

48.5

49.1

50.8

Aug

51.0

52.6

52.4

48.0

49.3

50.4

Jul

50.3

52.4

50.6

47.6

49.1

50.1

Jun

50.1

52.0

50.4

47.4

48.7

50.3

May

50.8

53.3

51.8

47.6

48.8

50.8

Apr

50.6

52.6

51.7

47.5

49.0

50.8

Mar

50.9

52.7

52.3

47.5

49.8

51.1

Feb

50.1

51.2

50.1

49.5

47.6

48.3

Jan

50.4

51.3

51.6

50.1

47.8

50.0

Dec 2012

50.6

52.0

51.2

47.3

49.0

48.8

Nov

50.6

52.5

51.2

47.9

48.7

49.9

Oct

50.2

52.1

50.4

47.3

49.2

50.1

Sep

49.8

51.3

49.8

47.0

48.9

49.5

Aug

49.2

50.9

48.7

45.1

49.1

50.0

Jul

50.1

51.8

49.0

48.5

49.5

49.0

Jun

50.2

52.0

49.2

48.2

49.7

49.1

May

50.4

52.9

49.8

45.1

50.5

49.0

Apr

53.3

57.2

54.5

48.5

51.0

49.6

Mar

53.1

55.2

55.1

49.5

51.0

48.9

Feb

51.0

53.8

51.0

48.8

49.5

50.3

Jan

50.5

53.6

50.4

49.7

47.1

49.7

IPM: Index of Purchasing Managers; PI: Production Index; NOI: New Orders Index; EMP: Employed Person Index; SDEL: Supplier Delivery Time Index

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

China estimates the manufacturing index of purchasing managers on the basis of a sample of 820 enterprises (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Chart CIPMMFG provides the manufacturing index of purchasing managers. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013. The index decreased from 51.4 in Nov 2013 to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index moved to 51.6 in Dec 2017.

Chart CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Growth of China’s GDP in IVQ2017 relative to the same period in 2016 was 6.8 percent and cumulative growth to IVQ2017 was 6.9 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDP. Secondary industry accounts for 40.5 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2017. In cumulative IVQ2017, industry accounts for 33.9 percent of GDP and construction for 6.7 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 51.6 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2017 and primary industry for 7.9 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is shifting to lower growth rates with improvement in living standards by increasing growth of services. The bottom block of Table VC-GDP provides quarter-on-quarter growth rates of GDP and their annual equivalent. China’s GDP growth decelerated significantly from annual equivalent 10.0 percent in IQ2011 to 6.1 percent in IVQ2011 and 7.8 percent in IQ2012, rebounding to 7.0 percent in IIQ2012, 8.7 percent in IIIQ2012 and 6.6 percent in IVQ2012. Annual equivalent growth in IQ2013 eased to 7.0 percent and to 7.4 percent in IIQ2013, rebounding to 7.4 percent in IIIQ2013. Annual equivalent growth was 7.0 percent in IVQ2013, stabilizing to 7.0 percent in IQ2014 and to 7.0 percent in IIQ2014. Annual equivalent growth stabilized at 7.0 percent in IIIQ2014 and 6.6 percent in IVQ2014. Growth moved to annual equivalent 5.3 percent in IQ2015, 7.8 percent in IIQ2015 and 7.4 percent in IIIQ2015. Growth slowed to 7.0 percent in annual equivalent in IVQ2015 and 5.7 percent in IQ2016. Growth increased to annual equivalent 7.8 percent in IIQ2016 and 7.4 percent in IIIQ2016, decreasing to 6.6 percent in IVQ2016. Growth decelerated to annual equivalent 5.7 percent in IQ2017, accelerating to 7.4 percent in IIQ2017 and 7.4 percent in IIIQ2017. Growth decelerated to 6.6 percent in IVQ2017.

Table VC-GDP China, Quarterly Growth of GDP, Current CNY 100 Million and Inflation Adjusted ∆%

Cumulative GDP IVQ2017

Value Current CNY Billion IVQ2017

Value Current CNY Billion IQ2017 to IVQ2017

IVQ2017 Year-on-Year Constant Prices ∆%

Cumulative to IVQ2017

∆%

GDP

23,458.2

82,712.2

6.8

6.9

Primary Industry

2,423.9

6,546.8

4.4

3.9

Farming

2,515.4

6,800.9

4.5

4.1

Secondary Industry

9,617.7

33,462.3

5.7

6.1

Industry

7,820.5

27,999.7

6.2

6.4

Construction

1,828.8

5,568.9

3.1

4.3

Tertiary Industry

11,416.7

42,703.2

8.3

8.0

Transport, Storage, Post

997.2

3,608.3

8.6

9.0

Wholesale, Retail Trades

2,179.1

7,774.4

6.9

7.1

Accommodation and Restaurants

410.9

1,459.4

7.0

7.1

Finance

1,630.2

6,574.9

4.0

4.5

Real Estate

1,486.0

5,385.1

4.8

5.6

Other

3,215.7

12,507.2

7.2

7.1

Growth in Quarter Relative to Prior Quarter

∆% on Prior Quarter

∆% Annual Equivalent

∆% Year-on-Year

2017

IVQ2017

1.6

6.6

6.8

IIIQ2017

1.8

7.4

6.8

IIQ2017

1.9

7.8

6.9

IQ2017

1.4

5.7

6.9

2016

IVQ2016

1.7

7.0

6.8

IIIQ2016

1.8

7.4

6.7

IIQ2016

1.9

7.8

6.7

IQ2016

1.3

5.3

6.7

2015

IVQ2015

1.6

6.6

6.8

IIIQ2015

1.7

7.0

6.9

IIQ2015

1.7

7.0

7.0

IQ2015

1.7

7.0

7.0

2014

IVQ2014

1.7

7.0

7.2

IIIQ2014

1.8

7.4

7.1

IIQ2014

1.8

7.4

7.5

IQ2014

1.7

7.0

7.4

2013

IVQ2013

1.6

6.6

7.7

IIIQ2013

2.1

8.7

7.9

IIQ2013

1.7

7.0

7.6

IQ2013

1.9

7.8

7.9

2012

IVQ2012

2.0

8.2

8.1

IIIQ2012

1.8

7.4

7.5

IIQ2012

2.1

8.7

7.6

IQ2012

1.9

7.8

8.1

2011

IVQ2011

1.5

6.1

8.8

IIIQ2011

1.9

7.8

9.4

IIQ2011

2.4

10.0

10.0

IQ2011

2.4

10.0

10.2

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Growth of China’s GDP in IVQ2017 relative to the same period in 2016 was 6.8 percent and cumulative growth to IVQ2017 was 6.9 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDP. Secondary industry accounts for 40.5 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2017. In cumulative IVQ2017, industry accounts for 33.9 percent of GDP and construction for 6.7 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 51.6 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2017 and primary industry for 7.9 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is shifting to lower growth rates with improvement in living standards by increasing growth of services. Table VC-GDPA shows that growth decelerated from 12.1 percent in IQ2010 and 11.2 percent in IIQ2010 to 7.9 percent in IQ2013, 7.6 percent in IIQ2013 and 7.9 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP grew 7.7 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 1.6 percent relative to IIIQ2013, which is equivalent to 6.6 percent per year. GDP grew 7.4 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.7 percent in IQ2014 that is equivalent to 7.0 percent per year. GDP grew 7.5 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is annual equivalent 7.4 percent. In IIIQ2014, GDP grew 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is 7.4 percent in annual equivalent. GDP grew 1.7 percent in IVQ2014, which is 7.0 percent in annual equivalent and 7.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2015, GDP grew 1.7 percent, which is equivalent to 7.0 in a year and 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 1.7 percent in IIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent in a year, and grew 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.7 percent in IIIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent in a year, and grew 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.6 percent in IVQ2015, which is equivalent to 6.6 percent in a year and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, GDP grew at 1.3 percent, which is equivalent to 5.3 percent in a year, and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.9 percent in IIQ2016, which is annual equivalent to 7.8 percent, and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, GDP grew at 1.8 percent, which is equivalent to 7.4 percent in a year and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, GDP grew at 1.7 percent, equivalent to 7.0 percent in a year, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 6.9 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased at 1.4 percent, which is 5.7 percent in annual equivalent. In IIQ2017, GDP grew at 1.9 percent, which is annual equivalent at 7.8 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.8 percent in IIIQ2017, which is annual equivalent at 7.4 percent, and increased at 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, GDP grew 1.6 percent, which is equivalent to 6.6 percent annual equivalent, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier.

Table VC-GDPA China, Growth Rate of GDP, ∆% Relative to a Year Earlier and ∆% Relative to Prior Quarter

IQ2017

IIQ2017

IIIQ2017

IVQ2017

GDP

6.9

6.9

6.8

6.8

Primary Industry

3.0

3.8

3.9

4.4

Secondary Industry

6.4

6.4

6.0

5.7

Tertiary Industry

7.7

7.6

8.0

8.3

GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter

1.4

(5.7)

1.9

(7.8)

1.8

(7.4)

1.6

(6.6)

IQ2015

IIQQ2015

IIIQ2015

IVQ2015

IQ2016

IIQ2016

IIIQ2016

IVQ2016

GDP

7.0

7.0

6.9

6.8

6.7

6.7

6.7

6.8

Primary Industry

3.2

3.5

3.8

4.1

2.9

3.1

3.5

2.9

Secondary Industry

6.4

6.1

6.0

6.1

5.8

6.3

6.1

6.1

Tertiary Industry

7.9

8.4

8.4

8.2

7.6

7.5

7.6

8.3

GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter

1.7

(7.0)

1.7

(7.0)

1.7

(7.0)

1.6

(6.6)

1.3

(5.3)

1.9

(7.8)

1.8

(7.4)

1.7

(7.0)

IQ 2013

IIQ 2013

IIIQ 2013

IVQ 2013

IQ

2014

IIQ 2014

IIIQ 2014

IVQ

2014

GDP

7.9

7.6

7.9

7.7

7.4

7.5

7.1

7.2

Primary Industry

3.4

3.0

3.4

4.0

3.5

3.9

4.2

4.1

Secondary Industry

7.8

7.6

7.8

7.8

7.3

7.4

7.4

7.3

Tertiary Industry

8.3

8.3

8.4

8.3

7.1

8.0

7.9

8.1

GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter

1.9

(7.8)

1.7

(7.0)

2.1

(8.7)

1.6

(6.6)

1.7

(7.0)

1.8

(7.4)

1.8

(7.4)

1.7

(7.0)

IQ 2011

IIQ 2011

IIIQ 2011

IVQ 2011

IQ 

2012

IIQ 2012

IIIQ 2012

IVQ 2012

GDP

10.2

10.0

9.4

8.8

8.1

7.6

7.5

8.1

Primary Industry

3.5

3.2

3.8

4.5

3.8

4.3

4.2

4.5

Secondary Industry

11.1

11.0

10.8

10.6

9.1

8.3

8.1

8.1

Tertiary Industry

9.1

9.2

9.0

8.9

7.5

7.7

7.9

8.1

GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter

2.4

(10.0)

2.4

(10.0)

1.9

(7.8)

1.5

(6.1)

1.9

(7.8)

2.1

(8.7)

1.8

(7.4)

2.0

(8.2)

IQ 2010

IIQ 2010

IIIQ 2010

IVQ 2010

GDP

12.1

11.2

10.7

12.1

Primary Industry

3.8

3.6

4.0

3.8

Secondary Industry

14.5

13.3

12.6

14.5

Tertiary Industry

10.5

9.9

9.7

10.5

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Growth of China’s GDP in IVQ2016 relative to the same period in 2016 was 6.8 percent and

Chart VC-GDP of the National Bureau of Statistics of China provides annual value and growth rates of GDP. China’s GDP growth in 2016 is still high at 6.7 percent but at the lowest rhythm in five years.

Chart VC-GDP, China, Gross Domestic Product, Million Yuan and ∆%

Source: National bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart VC-FXR provides China’s foreign exchange reserves. FX reserves grew from $2399.2 billion in 2009 to $38430 billion in 2013 driven by high growth of China’s trade surplus, decreasing to $30105 billion in 2016.

Chart VC-FXR, China, Foreign Exchange Reserves, 2012-2016

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Chart VC-Trade provides China’s imports and exports. Exports exceeded imports with resulting large trade balance surpluses that increased foreign exchange reserves.

Chart VC-Trade, China, Imports and Exports of Goods, 2012-2016, $100 Million US Dollars

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Chart VC-PCDI provides the level and growth rates of per capita disposable income in China.

Chart VC-PCDI, China, Level and Growth Rates of Per Capita Disposable Income

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

The Caixin Flash China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) compiled by Markit (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/883014a121534f51bc42e5060845f727) is mixed. The overall Flash Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI™ decreased from 47.3 in Aug to 47.0 in Sep, while the Flash Caixin China General Manufacturing Output Index decreased from 46.4 in Aug to 45.7 in Aug, indicating weaker conditions. He Fan, Chief Economist at Caixin Insight Group finds need of fiscal and monetary policy (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/883014a121534f51bc42e5060845f727). The Caixin China General Services PMI™, compiled by Markit, shows that the Caixin Composite Output, combining manufacturing and services, increased from 51.6 in Nov to 53.0 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/021247a9d84a4d4f805074a04f7cd584). Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at CEBM Group, finds stabilizing growth activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/021247a9d84a4d4f805074a04f7cd584). The Caixin General Manufacturing PMI™ increased to 51.5 in Dec from 50.8 in Nov, indicating growth conditions in manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/5d67c1b2d63a4013aa2120ea2962a71e). Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at CEBM Group, finds moderate conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/a8ab86a38682409d9ee7db70653916ba). Table CNY provides the country data table for China.

Table CNY, China, Economic Indicators

Price Indexes for Industry

Dec 12-month ∆%: 4.9

Dec month ∆%: 0.8
Blog 1/14/18

Consumer Price Index

Dec 12-month ∆%: 1.8 Dec month ∆%: 0.3
Blog 1/14/18

Value Added of Industry

Dec month ∆%: 0.52

Jan-Dec 2017/Jan-Dec 2016 ∆%: 6.6

Earlier Data
Blog 4/19/15

GDP Growth Rate

Year IVQ2017 ∆%: 6.8

IV Quarter 2017 ∆%: 1.6
Quarter IVQ2017 AE ∆%: 6.6
Blog 1/28/18

Investment in Fixed Assets

Total Jan-Dec 2017 ∆%: 7.2

Real estate development: 7.0

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/19/15

Retail Sales

Dec month ∆%: 0.83
Jan-Dec 2017 ∆%: 10.2

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/19/15

Trade Balance

Dec balance $54.69 billion
Exports 12M ∆% 10.9
Imports 12M ∆% 4.5

2017 Exports ∆% 7.9

2017 Imports ∆% 15.9

2016 Exports ∆% 11.3

2016 Imports ∆% 17.3

Cumulative Dec 2017: $422.50 billion

Cumulative Dec 2016: $486.0

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/19/15

Links to blog comments in Table CNY: 1/14/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/01/dollar-devaluation-and-rising.html

10/29/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/dollar-revaluation-and-increase-of.html

10/22/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/world-inflation-waves-long-term-and.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

Growth of China’s GDP in IVQ2017 relative to the same period in 2016 was 6.8 percent and cumulative growth to IVQ2017 was 6.9 percent, as shown in Table VC-1. Secondary industry accounts for 40.5 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2017. In cumulative IVQ2017, industry accounts for 33.9 percent of GDP and construction for 6.7 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 51.6 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2017 and primary industry for 7.9 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is shifting to lower growth rates with improvement in living standards by increasing growth of services. The bottom block of Table VC-1 provides quarter-on-quarter growth rates of GDP and their annual equivalent. China’s GDP growth decelerated significantly from annual equivalent 10.0 percent in IQ2011 to 6.1 percent in IVQ2011 and 7.8 percent in IQ2012, rebounding to 7.0 percent in IIQ2012, 8.7 percent in IIIQ2012 and 6.6 percent in IVQ2012. Annual equivalent growth in IQ2013 eased to 7.0 percent and to 7.4 percent in IIQ2013, rebounding to 7.4 percent in IIIQ2013. Annual equivalent growth was 7.0 percent in IVQ2013, stabilizing to 7.0 percent in IQ2014 and to 7.0 percent in IIQ2014. Annual equivalent growth stabilized at 7.0 percent in IIIQ2014 and 6.6 percent in IVQ2014. Growth moved to annual equivalent 5.3 percent in IQ2015, 7.8 percent in IIQ2015 and 7.4 percent in IIIQ2015. Growth slowed to 7.0 percent in annual equivalent in IVQ2015 and 5.7 percent in IQ2016. Growth increased to annual equivalent 7.8 percent in IIQ2016 and 7.4 percent in IIIQ2016, decreasing to 6.6 percent in IVQ2016. Growth decelerated to annual equivalent 5.7 percent in IQ2017, accelerating to 7.4 percent in IIQ2017 and 7.4 percent in IIIQ2017. Growth decelerated to 6.6 percent in IVQ2017.

Table VC-1 China, Quarterly Growth of GDP, Current CNY 100 Million and Inflation Adjusted ∆%

Cumulative GDP IVQ2017

Value Current CNY Billion IVQ2017

Value Current CNY Billion IQ2017 to IVQ2017

IVQ2017 Year-on-Year Constant Prices ∆%

Cumulative to IVQ2017

∆%

GDP

23,458.2

82,712.2

6.8

6.9

Primary Industry

2,423.9

6,546.8

4.4

3.9

Farming

2,515.4

6,800.9

4.5

4.1

Secondary Industry

9,617.7

33,462.3

5.7

6.1

Industry

7,820.5

27,999.7

6.2

6.4

Construction

1,828.8

5,568.9

3.1

4.3

Tertiary Industry

11,416.7

42,703.2

8.3

8.0

Transport, Storage, Post

997.2

3,608.3

8.6

9.0

Wholesale, Retail Trades

2,179.1

7,774.4

6.9

7.1

Accommodation and Restaurants

410.9

1,459.4

7.0

7.1

Finance

1,630.2

6,574.9

4.0

4.5

Real Estate

1,486.0

5,385.1

4.8

5.6

Other

3,215.7

12,507.2

7.2

7.1

Growth in Quarter Relative to Prior Quarter

∆% on Prior Quarter

∆% Annual Equivalent

∆% Year-on-Year

2017

IVQ2017

1.6

6.6

6.8

IIIQ2017

1.8

7.4

6.8

IIQ2017

1.9

7.8

6.9

IQ2017

1.4

5.7

6.9

2016

IVQ2016

1.7

7.0

6.8

IIIQ2016

1.8

7.4

6.7

IIQ2016

1.9

7.8

6.7

IQ2016

1.3

5.3

6.7

2015

IVQ2015

1.6

6.6

6.8

IIIQ2015

1.7

7.0

6.9

IIQ2015

1.7

7.0

7.0

IQ2015

1.7

7.0

7.0

2014

IVQ2014

1.7

7.0

7.2

IIIQ2014

1.8

7.4

7.1

IIQ2014

1.8

7.4

7.5

IQ2014

1.7

7.0

7.4

2013

IVQ2013

1.6

6.6

7.7

IIIQ2013

2.1

8.7

7.9

IIQ2013

1.7

7.0

7.6

IQ2013

1.9

7.8

7.9

2012

IVQ2012

2.0

8.2

8.1

IIIQ2012

1.8

7.4

7.5

IIQ2012

2.1

8.7

7.6

IQ2012

1.9

7.8

8.1

2011

IVQ2011

1.5

6.1

8.8

IIIQ2011

1.9

7.8

9.4

IIQ2011

2.4

10.0

10.0

IQ2011

2.4

10.0

10.2

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Growth of China’s GDP in IVQ2017 relative to the same period in 2016 was 6.8 percent and cumulative growth to IVQ2017 was 6.9 percent, as shown in Table VC-1. Secondary industry accounts for 40.5 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2017. In cumulative IVQ2017, industry accounts for 33.9 percent of GDP and construction for 6.7 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 51.6 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2017 and primary industry for 7.9 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is shifting to lower growth rates with improvement in living standards by increasing growth of services. Table VC-2 shows that growth decelerated from 12.1 percent in IQ2010 and 11.2 percent in IIQ2010 to 7.9 percent in IQ2013, 7.6 percent in IIQ2013 and 7.9 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP grew 7.7 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 1.6 percent relative to IIIQ2013, which is equivalent to 6.6 percent per year. GDP grew 7.4 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.7 percent in IQ2014 that is equivalent to 7.0 percent per year. GDP grew 7.5 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is annual equivalent 7.4 percent. In IIIQ2014, GDP grew 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is 7.4 percent in annual equivalent. GDP grew 1.7 percent in IVQ2014, which is 7.0 percent in annual equivalent and 7.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2015, GDP grew 1.7 percent, which is equivalent to 7.0 in a year and 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 1.7 percent in IIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent in a year, and grew 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.7 percent in IIIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent in a year, and grew 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.6 percent in IVQ2015, which is equivalent to 6.6 percent in a year and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, GDP grew at 1.3 percent, which is equivalent to 5.3 percent in a year, and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.9 percent in IIQ2016, which is annual equivalent to 7.8 percent, and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, GDP grew at 1.8 percent, which is equivalent to 7.4 percent in a year and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, GDP grew at 1.7 percent, equivalent to 7.0 percent in a year, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 6.9 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased at 1.4 percent, which is 5.7 percent in annual equivalent. In IIQ2017, GDP grew at 1.9 percent, which is annual equivalent at 7.8 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.8 percent in IIIQ2017, which is annual equivalent at 7.4 percent, and increased at 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, GDP grew 1.6 percent, which is equivalent to 6.6 percent annual equivalent, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier.

Table VC-2 China, Growth Rate of GDP, ∆% Relative to a Year Earlier and ∆% Relative to Prior Quarter

IQ2017

IIQ2017

IIIQ2017

IVQ2017

GDP

6.9

6.9

6.8

6.8

Primary Industry

3.0

3.8

3.9

4.4

Secondary Industry

6.4

6.4

6.0

5.7

Tertiary Industry

7.7

7.6

8.0

8.3

GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter

1.4

(5.7)

1.9

(7.8)

1.8

(7.4)

1.6

(6.6)

IQ2015

IIQQ2015

IIIQ2015

IVQ2015

IQ2016

IIQ2016

IIIQ2016

IVQ2016

GDP

7.0

7.0

6.9

6.8

6.7

6.7

6.7

6.8

Primary Industry

3.2

3.5

3.8

4.1

2.9

3.1

3.5

2.9

Secondary Industry

6.4

6.1

6.0

6.1

5.8

6.3

6.1

6.1

Tertiary Industry

7.9

8.4

8.4

8.2

7.6

7.5

7.6

8.3

GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter

1.7

(7.0)

1.7

(7.0)

1.7

(7.0)

1.6

(6.6)

1.3

(5.3)

1.9

(7.8)

1.8

(7.4)

1.7

(7.0)

IQ 2013

IIQ 2013

IIIQ 2013

IVQ 2013

IQ

2014

IIQ 2014

IIIQ 2014

IVQ

2014

GDP

7.9

7.6

7.9

7.7

7.4

7.5

7.1

7.2

Primary Industry

3.4

3.0

3.4

4.0

3.5

3.9

4.2

4.1

Secondary Industry

7.8

7.6

7.8

7.8

7.3

7.4

7.4

7.3

Tertiary Industry

8.3

8.3

8.4

8.3

7.1

8.0

7.9

8.1

GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter

1.9

(7.8)

1.7

(7.0)

2.1

(8.7)

1.6

(6.6)

1.7

(7.0)

1.8

(7.4)

1.8

(7.4)

1.7

(7.0)

IQ 2011

IIQ 2011

IIIQ 2011

IVQ 2011

IQ 

2012

IIQ 2012

IIIQ 2012

IVQ 2012

GDP

10.2

10.0

9.4

8.8

8.1

7.6

7.5

8.1

Primary Industry

3.5

3.2

3.8

4.5

3.8

4.3

4.2

4.5

Secondary Industry

11.1

11.0

10.8

10.6

9.1

8.3

8.1

8.1

Tertiary Industry

9.1

9.2

9.0

8.9

7.5

7.7

7.9

8.1

GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter

2.4

(10.0)

2.4

(10.0)

1.9

(7.8)

1.5

(6.1)

1.9

(7.8)

2.1

(8.7)

1.8

(7.4)

2.0

(8.2)

IQ 2010

IIQ 2010

IIIQ 2010

IVQ 2010

GDP

12.1

11.2

10.7

12.1

Primary Industry

3.8

3.6

4.0

3.8

Secondary Industry

14.5

13.3

12.6

14.5

Tertiary Industry

10.5

9.9

9.7

10.5

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

VD Euro Area. Using calendar and seasonally adjusted data (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of the euro area (19 countries) fell 5.7 percent from IQ2008 to IIQ2009. The GDP of the euro area (19 countries) increased 8.6 percent from IIIQ2009 to IVQ2016 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.1 percent. The GDP of the euro area (19 countries) is higher by 2.4 percent in IVQ2016 relative to the pre-recession peak in IQ2008, growing at annual equivalent rate of 0.3 percent. The GDP of the euro area (18) countries increased at the average yearly rate of 2.3 percent from IQ1999 to IQ2008 while that of the euro area (19 countries) increased at 2.3 percent. Table VD-EUR provides yearly growth rates of the combined GDP of the members of the European Monetary Union (EMU) or euro area since 1999. Growth was very strong at 3.2 percent in 2006 and 3.0 percent in 2007. The global recession had strong impact with growth of only 0.4 percent in 2008 and decline of 4.5 percent in 2009. Recovery was at lower growth rates of 2.1 percent in 2010 and 1.5 percent in 2011. EUROSTAT estimates growth of GDP of the euro area of minus 0.9 percent in 2012 and minus 0.3 percent in 2013. Euro Area GDP grew 1.2 percent in 2014 and grew 2.0 percent in 2015. The GDP of the euro area grew 1.7 percent in 2016.

Table VD-EUR, Euro Area, Yearly Percentage Change of Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, Unemployment and GDP ∆%

Year

HICP ∆%

Unemployment
%

GDP ∆%

1999

1.2

9.7

3.0

2000

2.2

8.9

3.8

2001

2.4

8.3

2.1

2002

2.3

8.6

1.0

2003

2.1

9.1

0.7

2004

2.2

9.3

2.3

2005

2.2

9.1

1.7

2006

2.2

8.4

3.2

2007

2.2

7.5

3.0

2008

3.3

7.6

0.4

2009

0.3

9.6

-4.5

2010

1.6

10.2

2.1

2011

2.7

10.2

1.5

2012

2.5

11.4

-0.9

2013

1.3

12.0

-0.3

2014

0.4

11.6

1.2

2015

0.0

10.9

2.0

2016

0.2

10.0

1.7

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

The GDP of the euro area in 2015 in current US dollars in the dataset of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is $11,990.9 billion or 16.3 percent of world GDP of $73,598.8 billion (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/02/weodata/index.aspx). The sum of the GDP of France $2420.2 billion with the GDP of Germany of $3365.3 billion, Italy of $1815.8 billion and Spain $1199.7 billion is $8,801.0 billion or 73.4 percent of total euro area GDP and 13.1 percent of World GDP. The four largest economies account for slightly more than three quarters of economic activity of the euro area. Table VD-EUR1 is constructed with the dataset of EUROSTAT, providing growth rates of the euro area as a whole and of the largest four economies of Germany, France, Italy and Spain annually from 1996 to 2016. The impact of the global recession on the overall euro area economy and on the four largest economies was quite strong. There was sharp contraction in 2009 and growth rates have not rebounded to earlier growth with exception of Germany in 2010 and 2011.

Table VD-EUR1, Euro Area, Real GDP Growth Rate, ∆%

Euro Area

Germany

France

Italy

Spain

2016

1.7

1.9

1.2

0.9

3.2

2015

2.0

1.7

1.3

0.8

3.2

2014

1.2

1.6

0.6

0.1

1.4

2013

-0.3

0.5

0.6

-1.7

-1.7

2012

-0.9

0.5

0.2

-2.8

-2.9

2011

1.5

3.7

2.1

0.6

-1.0

2010

2.1

4.1

2.0

1.7

0.0

2009

-4.5

-5.6

-2.9

-5.5

-3.6

2008

0.4

1.1

0.2

-1.1

1.1

2007

3.0

3.3

2.4

1.5

3.8

2006

3.2

3.7

2.4

2.0

4.2

2005

1.7

0.7

1.6

0.9

3.7

2004

2.3

1.2

2.8

1.6

3.2

2003

0.7

-0.7

0.8

0.2

3.2

2002

1.0

0.0

1.1

0.2

2.9

2001

2.1

1.7

2.0

1.8

4.0

2000

3.8

3.0

3.9

3.7

5.3

1999

3.0

2.0

3.4

1.6

4.5

1998

2.9

2.0

3.6

1.6

4.3

Average 1999-2016

1.2

1.3

1.3

0.3

1.7

Average 1999-2007

2.2

1.6

2.1

1.5

3.8

Average 2016-2007

0.3

1.0

0.6

-7.0*

-0.5*

1997

2.6

1.8

2.3

1.8

3.7

1996

1.6

0.8

1.4

1.3

2.7

Note: Absolute percentage change

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

The Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index of the HIS Markit Flash Eurozone PMI®, combining activity in manufacturing and services, increased from 58.1 in Dec to 58.6 in Jan (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/78818cb50f5142c08c4026e147e38e26). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds that the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI index suggests GDP growth about 1.0 percent quarterly (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/78818cb50f5142c08c4026e147e38e26). The IHS Markit Eurozone PMI® Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing activity with close association with GDP increased from 57.5 in Nov to 58.1 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/59c7241d08774decaa1914d3d9be1a8e). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds potential for growth of about 0.8 percent in quarterly GDP (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/59c7241d08774decaa1914d3d9be1a8e). The IHS Markit Eurozone Services Business Activity Index increased from 56.2 in Nov to 56.6 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/59c7241d08774decaa1914d3d9be1a8e). The IHS Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI® increased from 60.1 in Nov to 60.6 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b0cb3d5a14ab402489ae2c34385ac69e). New export orders increased. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds strong industrial growth (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b0cb3d5a14ab402489ae2c34385ac69e). Table EUR provides the data table for the euro area.

Table EUR, Euro Area Economic Indicators

GDP

IIIQ2017 ∆% 0.6; IIIQ2017/IIQ2016 ∆% 2.6 Blog 9/13/15 11/22/15 12/13/15 2/14/16 3/13/16 5/1/16 5/15/16 6/12/16 8/7/16 8/14/16 9/11/16 11/20/16 12/11/16 02/26/17 3/12/17 5/21/17 6/11/17 8/20/17 9/10/17 11/26/17 12/10/2017

Unemployment 

Nov 2017: 8.7 % unemployment rate; Nov 2017: 14.263 million unemployed

Blog 1/14/18

HICP

Dec month ∆%: 0.4

12 months Dec ∆%: 1.4
Blog 1/21//18

Producer Prices

Euro Zone industrial producer prices Nov ∆%: 0.6
Nov 12-month ∆%: 2.8
Blog 1/14/18

Industrial Production

Nov Month ∆%: 1.0; 12 months ∆%: 3.2

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/19/15

Retail Sales

Nov month ∆%: 1.5
Nov 12 months ∆%: 2.8

Earlier Data:
Blog 3/15/15

Confidence and Economic Sentiment Indicator

Sentiment 116.0 Dec 2017

Consumer 0.5 Dec 2017

Earlier Data:

Blog 4/5/15

Trade

Jan-Nov 2017/Jan-Nov 2016 Exports ∆%: 7.5
Imports ∆%: 10.1

Nov 2017 12-month Exports ∆% 7.7 Imports ∆% 7.3

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/19/15

Links to blog comments in Table EUR: 1/21/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/01/dollar-devaluation-and-increasing.html

1/14/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/01/dollar-devaluation-and-rising.html

12/24/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_23.html

12/10/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

11/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/11/the-lost-economic-cycle-of-global_25.html

9/10/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

8/20/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

6/11/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/flattening-us-treasury-yield-curve.html

5/21/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/dollar-devaluation-world-inflation.html

3/12/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/increasing-interest-rates-twenty-four.html

2/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

12/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/rising-values-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/20/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/interest-rate-increase-could-well.html

11/13/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/dollar-revaluation-and-valuations-of.html

11/6/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/the-case-for-increase-in-federal-funds.html

9/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/interest-rate-uncertainty-and-valuation.html

8/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

8/7/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/global-competitive-easing-or.html

6/12/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/considerable-uncertainty-about-economic.html

5/15/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

5/1/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/economic-activity-appears-to-have.html

3/13/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/monetary-policy-and-fluctuations-of_13.html

3/6/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/twenty-five-million-unemployed-or.html

2/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/subdued-foreign-growth-and-dollar.html

12/13/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/liftoff-of-interest-rates-with-volatile_17.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

VE Germany. Table VE-DE provides yearly growth rates of the German economy from 1971 to 2016, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked. Germany’s GDP fell 5.6 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.1 percent in 2008. Recovery has been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.1 percent in 2010, 3.7 percent in 2011 and 0.5 percent in 2012. Growth stabilized to 0.5 percent in 2013, increasing to 1.9 percent in 2014. The German economy grew at 1.7 percent in 2015 and grew at 1.9 percent in 2016.

The Federal Statistical Agency of Germany analyzes the fall and recovery of the German economy (http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Content/Statistics/VolkswirtschaftlicheGesamtrechnungen/Inlandsprodukt/Aktuell,templateId=renderPrint.psml):

“The German economy again grew strongly in 2011. The price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.0% compared with the previous year. Accordingly, the catching-up process of the German economy continued during the second year after the economic crisis. In the course of 2011, the price-adjusted GDP again exceeded its pre-crisis level. The economic recovery occurred mainly in the first half of 2011. In 2009, Germany experienced the most serious post-war recession, when GDP suffered a historic decline of 5.1%. The year 2010 was characterised by a rapid economic recovery (+3.7%).”

Table VE-DE, Germany, GDP ∆% on Prior Year

Price Adjusted Chain-Linked

Price- and Calendar-Adjusted Chain Linked

Average ∆% 1991-2016

1.4

Average ∆% 1991-1999

1.5

Average ∆% 2000-2007

1.4

Average ∆% 2003-2007

2.2

Average ∆% 2007-2016

1.1

Average ∆% 2009-2016

2.0

2016

1.9

1.9

2015

1.7

1.5

2014

1.9

1.9

2013

0.5

0.6

2012

0.5

0.7

2011

3.7

3.7

2010

4.1

3.9

2009

-5.6

-5.6

2008

1.1

0.8

2007

3.3

3.4

2006

3.7

3.9

2005

0.7

0.9

2004

1.2

0.7

2003

-0.7

-0.7

2002

0.0

0.0

2001

1.7

1.8

2000

3.0

3.2

1999

2.0

1.8

1998

2.0

1.8

1997

1.8

1.9

1996

0.8

0.9

1995

1.7

1.8

1994

2.5

2.5

1993

-1.0

-1.0

1992

1.9

1.5

1991

5.1

5.2

1990

5.3

5.5

1989

3.9

4.0

1988

3.7

3.4

1987

1.4

1.3

1986

2.3

2.3

1985

2.3

2.6

1984

2.8

2.9

1983

1.6

1.5

1982

-0.4

-0.5

1981

0.5

0.6

1980

1.4

1.3

1979

4.2

4.3

1978

3.0

3.1

1977

3.3

3.5

1976

4.9

4.5

1975

-0.9

-0.9

1974

0.9

1.0

1973

4.8

5.0

1972

4.3

4.3

1971

3.1

3.0

1970

NA

NA

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/NationalAccounts.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/DomesticProduct/CurrentRevision.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Methods/NationalAccountRevision/Revision2014_BackgroundPaper.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/02/PE14_048_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/08/PE13_278_811.html https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/11/PE13_381_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/01/PE14_016_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/DE/PresseService/Presse/Pressekonferenzen/2014/BIP2013/Pressebroschuere_BIP2013.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/05/PE14_167_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/09/PE14_306_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/11/PE14_401_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_048_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_61_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/05/PE15_173_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/05/PE15_187_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/08/PE15_293_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/08/PE15_305_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/11/PE15_419_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/11/PE15_430_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/DomesticProduct/DomesticProduct.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/02/PE16_056_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/02/PE16_044_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/05/PE16_162_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/05/PE16_171_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/08/PE16_279_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/08/PE16_291_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/11/PE16_403_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/11/PE16_413_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/02/PE17_050_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/02/PE17_062_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/05/PE17_155_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/05/PE17_169_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/08/PE17_277_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/08/PE17_294_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/11/PE17_422_811.html

The Flash Germany Composite Output Index of the IHS Markit Flash Germany PMI®, combining manufacturing and services, decreased from 58.9 in Dec to 58.8 in Jan. The index of manufacturing output reached 62.2 in Jan, decreasing from 64.6 in Dec, while the index of services increased to 57.0 in Jan from 55.8 in Dec. The overall Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI® decreased from 63.3 in Dec to 61.2 in Jan (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/551816e5ddc54e5fb66436fa09ce709d). New orders and new export orders in manufacturing increased. Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit, finds consistent growth of the private sector of Germany (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/551816e5ddc54e5fb66436fa09ce709d). The IHS Markit Germany Composite Output Index of the IHS Markit Germany Services PMI®, combining manufacturing and services with close association with Germany’s GDP, increased from 57.3 in Nov to 58.9 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/62b97e14bcc54843994c023f420ef6e9). Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit, finds growth of Germany (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/62b97e14bcc54843994c023f420ef6e9). The Germany Services Business Activity Index decreased from 54.3 in Nov to 55.8 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/62b97e14bcc54843994c023f420ef6e9). The IHS Markit/BME Germany Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®), showing close association with Germany’s manufacturing conditions, increased from 62.5 in Nov to 63,3 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d78cc12be000453da9b6f1b7cf330e25). New export orders increased. Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit, finds continuing growth conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d78cc12be000453da9b6f1b7cf330e25). Table DE provides the country data table for Germany.

Table DE, Germany, Economic Indicators

GDP

IIIQ2017 0.8 ∆%; IIIQ2017/IIIQ2016 NCSA ∆% 2.3 CA 2.8

2016/2015: 1.9%

GDP ∆% 1970-2016

Blog 8/26/12 5/27/12 11/25/12 2/24/13 5/19/13 5/26/13 8/18/13 8/25/13 11/17/13 11/24/13 1/26/14 2/16/14 3/2/14 5/18/14 5/25/14 8/17/14 9/7/14 11/16/14 11/30/14 2/15/15 3/1/15 5/17/15 5/24/15 8/16/15 8/30/15 11/22/15 11/29/15 2/14/16 2/28/16 5/15/16 5/29/16 8/14/16 8/28/16 11/20/16 11/27/16 2/19/17 02/26/17 05/14/17 5/28/17 8/20/17 8/27/17 11/26/17

Consumer Price Index

Dec month NSA ∆%: 0.6
Dec 12-month NSA ∆%: 1.7
Blog 1/21/18

Producer Price Index

Dec month ∆%: 0.2 NSA, 0.1 CSA
12-month NSA ∆%: 2.6
Blog 1/21/18

Industrial Production

MFG Nov month CSA ∆%: 4.3
12-month NSA: 6.3

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/12/15

Machine Orders

MFG Nov month ∆%: -0.4
Nov 12-month ∆%: 8.7

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/12/15

Retail Sales

Oct Month ∆% -1.2 Sep 0.5

12-Month Oct % -1.4 Sep 4.1

Earlier Data:

Blog 4/5/15

Employment Report

Unemployment Rate SA Sep 3.6%
Blog 1/14/18

Trade Balance

Exports Nov 12-month NSA ∆%: 8.2
Imports Nov 12 months NSA ∆%: 8.3
Exports Nov month CSA ∆%: 4.1; Imports Nov month CSA 2.3

Earlier Data:

Blog 4/12/15

Links to blog comments in Table DE: 1/21/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/01/dollar-devaluation-and-increasing.html

1/14/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/01/dollar-devaluation-and-rising.html

12/24/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_23.html

12/17/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/fomc-increases-interest-rates-with.html

12/10/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

11/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/11/the-lost-economic-cycle-of-global_25.html

8/27/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/dollar-devaluation-and-interest-rate.html

5/28/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

5/14/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million_14.html

2/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

02/19/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

11/27/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/dollar-revaluation-rising-yields-and.html

11/20/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/interest-rate-increase-could-well.html

11/13/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/dollar-revaluation-and-valuations-of.html

11/6/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/the-case-for-increase-in-federal-funds.html

8/28/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/and-as-ever-economic-outlook-is.html

8/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

5/29/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/appropriate-for-fed-to-increase.html

5/15/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

2/28/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

2/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/subdued-foreign-growth-and-dollar.html

11/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/dollar-revaluation-constraining.html

11/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-liftoff-followed-by.html

08/30/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/fluctuations-of-global-financial.html

08/16/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/exchange-rate-and-financial-asset.html

5/24/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/interest-rate-policy-and-dollar.html

5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

9/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/competitive-monetary-policy-and.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

1/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/01/capital-flows-exchange-rates-and.html

11/24/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html

8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

VF France. Table VF-FR provides growth rates of GDP of France with the estimates of Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE). The long-term rate of GDP growth of France from IVQ1949 to IIIQ2017 is quite high at 3.1 percent. France’s growth rates were quite high in the four decades of the 1950s, 1960, 1970s and 1980s with an average growth rate of 4.0 percent compounding the average rates in the decades and discounting to one decade. The growth impulse diminished with 2.0 percent in the 1990s and 1.8 percent from 2000 to 2007. The average growth rate from 2000 to 2016, using fourth quarter data, is 1.1 percent because of the sharp impact of the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. Cobet and Wilson (2002) provide estimates of output per hour and unit labor costs in national currency and US dollars for the US, Japan and Germany from 1950 to 2000 (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 137-44). The average yearly rate of productivity change from 1950 to 2000 was 2.9 percent in the US, 6.3 percent for Japan and 4.7 percent for Germany while unit labor costs in USD increased at 2.6 percent in the US, 4.7 percent in Japan and 4.3 percent in Germany. From 1995 to 2000, output per hour increased at the average yearly rate of 4.6 percent in the US, 3.9 percent in Japan and 2.6 percent in Germany while unit labor costs in US fell at minus 0.7 percent in the US, 4.3 percent in Japan and 7.5 percent in Germany. There was increase in productivity growth in the G7 in Japan and France in the second half of the 1990s but significantly lower than the acceleration of 1.3 percentage points per year in the US. Lucas (2011May) compares growth of the G7 economies (US, UK, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Canada) and Spain, finding that catch-up growth with earlier rates for the US and UK stalled in the 1970s.

Table VF-FR, France, Average Growth Rates of GDP Fourth Quarter, 1949-2016

Period

Average ∆%

1949-2017

3.1

2007-2017***

0.7

2007-2016**

0.5

2007-2015*

0.5

2007-2014

0.4

2000-2016

1.1

2000-2015

1.1

2000-2014

1.1

2000-2007

1.8

1990-1999

2.1

1980-1989

2.6

1970-1979

3.7

1960-1969

5.7

1950-1959

4.2

*IVQ2007 to IVQ2015 **IVQ2007 to IVQ2016 ***IVQ2007 to IIIQ2017

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/3294309

http://www.bdm.insee.fr/bdm2/choixTheme?request_locale=en&code=10#arbo:montrerbranches=theme312

The IHS Markit Flash France Composite Output Index decreased from 60.0 in Dec to 59.7 in Jan (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/1dcf0ace43254bb7827f7ac26440caa3). Alex Gill, Economist at IHS Markit, finds expanding activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/1dcf0ace43254bb7827f7ac26440caa3). The IHS Markit France Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing with close association with French GDP, decreased from 60.3 in Nov to 59.6 in Dec, indicating faster activity of the private sector (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/ef2bd00894fc4848ba38a11b7dd5030f). Alex Gill, Economist at IHS Markit that compiles the France Services PMI®, finds continuing growth https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/ef2bd00894fc4848ba38a11b7dd5030f (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/ef2bd00894fc4848ba38a11b7dd5030f). The IHS Markit France Services Activity index decreased from 60.4 in Nov to 59.1 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/ef2bd00894fc4848ba38a11b7dd5030f). The IHS Markit France Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index® increased to 58.8 in Dec from 57.7 in Nov (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/87fb38c426f242e282b1732349ed1007). Alex Gill, Economist at IHS Markit, finds improving manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/87fb38c426f242e282b1732349ed1007). Table FR provides the country data table for France.

Table FR, France, Economic Indicators

CPI

Dec month ∆% 0.3
12 months ∆%: 1.2
1/14/18

PPI

Nov month ∆%: 1.4
Nov 12 months ∆%: 2.4

Blog 12/31/17

GDP Growth

IIIQ2017/IIQ2017 ∆%: 0.6
IIIQ2017/IIIQ2016 ∆%: 2.3
Blog 3/31/13 5/19/12 6/30/13 9/29/13 11/17/13 12/29/13 2/16/14 4/6/14 5/18/14 6/29/14 8/17/14 9/28/14 11/16/14 12/28/14 2/15/15 3/29/15 5/17/15 6/28/15 8/16/15 9/27/15 11/15/15 12/27/15 1/31/16 2/28/16 3/27/16 5/1/16 6/5/16 06/26/16 8/7/16 9/4/16 9/25/16 10/30/16 12/4/16 1/1/17 2/12/17 3/5/17 3/26/17 5/7/17 6/4/17 6/25/17 8/20/17 9/3/17 11/12/17 12/10/17 12/31/17

Industrial Production

Nov ∆%:
Manufacturing -1.0 Quarter ∆%: 2.1 YOY 4.4

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/12/15

Consumer Spending

Manufactured Goods
Nov ∆%: 1.4 12-Month Manufactured Goods
∆%: 1.6

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/5/15

Employment

Unemployment Rate: IIIQ2017 9.4%
Blog 11/26/17

Trade Balance

Nov Exports ∆%: month -1.6 12 months 1.4

Imports ∆%: month -0.5 12 months 4.1

Earlier Data:

Blog 4/12/15

Confidence Indicators

Historical average 100

Jan Mfg Business Climate 113

Earlier Data:

Blog 3/29/15

Links to blog comments in Table FR: 1/14/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/01/dollar-devaluation-and-rising.html

12/31/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/dollar-devaluation-cyclically.html

12/24/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_23.html

12/17/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/fomc-increases-interest-rates-with.html

12/10/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

11/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/11/the-lost-economic-cycle-of-global_25.html

11/12/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/11/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

9/3/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

8/20/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

6/25/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/united-states-commercial-banks-united.html

6/4/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

5/7/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

3/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

3/5/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

2/12/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

1/1/17 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/rules-versus-discretionary-authorities.html

12/4/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/rising-yields-and-dollar-revaluation.html

10/30/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/10/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_30.html

9/25/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/the-economic-outlook-is-inherently.html

9/4/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/interest-rates-and-valuations-of-risk.html

8/7/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/global-competitive-easing-or.html

6/26/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/of-course-considerable-uncertainty.html

6/5/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/financial-turbulence-twenty-four.html

5/1/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/economic-activity-appears-to-have.html

3/27/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/contraction-of-united-states-corporate.html

2/28/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

1/31/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/closely-monitoring-global-economic-and.html

12/27/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/dollar-revaluation-and-decreasing.html

11/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-policy-conundrum-recovery.html

9/27/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/monetary-policy-designed-on-measurable.html

08/16/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/exchange-rate-and-financial-asset.html

6/28/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/international-valuations-of-financial.html

5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

9/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

12/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/collapse-of-united-states-dynamism-of.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

6/30/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/tapering-quantitative-easing-policy-and.html

5/19/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/word-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

VG Italy. Table VG-IT provides revised percentage changes of GDP in Italy of quarter on prior quarter and quarter on same quarter a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2017 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2017, the GDP of Italy increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, the GDP of Italy increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2016, GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2015, GDP increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2014 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy changed 0.0 percent in IQ2014 and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2013 and fell 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2013 and fell 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 1.0 percent in IQ2013 and declined 2.9 percent relative to IQ2012. GDP had been growing during six consecutive quarters but at very low rates from IQ2010 to IIQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell in seven consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at increasingly higher rates of contraction from 0.6 percent in IIIQ2011 to 0.9 percent in IVQ2011, 0.9 percent in IQ2012, 0.9 percent in IIQ2012 and 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012. The pace of decline accelerated to minus 0.6 percent in IVQ2012 and minus 1.0 percent in IQ2013. GDP contracted cumulatively 5.3 percent in seven consecutive quarterly contractions from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at the annual equivalent rate of minus 3.1 percent. The yearly rate has fallen from 2.2 percent in IVQ2010 to minus 2.8 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.9 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.0 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.2 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.8 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.9 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.0 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.2 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.3 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.0 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.9 percent in IIIQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.0 percent in IVQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.3 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.5 percent in IIQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.7 percent in IIIQ2017 relative to a year earlier. Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of Italy in IIIQ2017 of €400,176.9 million (http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/206790) is lower by 6.0 percent relative to €425,734.7 million in IQ2008 (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat). Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of Italy increased from €368,105.8 million in IQ1998 to €425,734.7 million in IQ2008 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.5 percent. The fiscal adjustment of Italy is significantly more difficult with the economy not growing especially on the prospects of increasing government revenue. The strategy is for reforms to improve productivity, facilitating future fiscal consolidation.

Table VG-IT, Italy, GDP ∆%

Quarter ∆% Relative to Preceding Quarter

Quarter ∆% Relative to Same Quarter Year Earlier

IIIQ2017

0.4

1.7

IIQ2017

0.3

1.5

IQ2017

0.5

1.3

IVQ2016

0.4

1.0

IIIQ2016

0.2

0.9

IIQ2016

0.1

1.0

IQ2016

0.3

1.3

IVQ2015

0.3

1.2

IIIQ2015

0.3

1.0

IIQ2015

0.4

0.9

IQ2015

0.2

0.4

IVQ2014

0.1

0.3

IIIQ2014

0.2

0.0

IIQ2014

-0.1

0.2

IQ2014

0.0

0.3

IVQ2013

-0.1

-0.8

IIIQ2013

0.3

-1.2

IIQ2013

0.0

-2.0

IQ2013

-1.0

-2.9

IVQ2012

-0.6

-2.8

IIIQ2012

-0.5

-3.1

IIQ2012

-0.9

-3.2

IQ2012

-0.9

-2.3

IVQ2011

-0.9

-1.1

IIIQ2011

-0.6

0.4

IIQ2011

0.1

1.6

IQ2011

0.3

2.0

IVQ2010

0.6

2.2

IIIQ2010

0.5

1.9

IIQ2010

0.5

1.9

IQ2010

0.4

0.6

IVQ2009

0.4

-2.6

IIIQ2009

0.6

-5.2

IIQ2009

-0.8

-7.0

IQ2009

-2.8

-7.2

IVQ2008

-2.3

-3.5

IIIQ2008

-1.4

-1.4

IIQ2008

-1.0

-0.1

IQ2008

1.1

0.8

IV2007

-0.1

-0.1

IIIQ2007

0.0

1.3

IIQ2007

-0.1

1.7

IQ2007

0.2

2.4

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/206790

The IHS Markit Italy Business Activity Index decreased from 54.7 in Nov to 55.4 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/85818899e41c46ae89d8164f977dd3a8). Paul Smith, Director at IHS Markit that compiles the Italy Services PMI®, finds stronger conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/85818899e41c46ae89d8164f977dd3a8). The IHS Markit Italy Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®), decreased from 58.3 in Nov to 57.4 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4fcd29cf35f043e6a0965c514403ce64). New export orders continued to increase. Paul Smith, Director at HIS Markit that compiles the Italian Manufacturing PMI®, finds consistent manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4fcd29cf35f043e6a0965c514403ce64). Table IT provides the country data table for Italy.

Table IT, Italy, Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index

Dec month ∆% 0.4
12 months ∆%: 0.9
Blog 1/21/18

Producer Price Index

Nov month ∆%: 0.4 Oct 12-month ∆%: 2.8

Blog 12/31/17

GDP Growth

IIIQ2017/IIQ2017 SA ∆%: 0.4
IIIQ2017/IIIQ2016 NSA ∆%: 1.7
Blog 3/17/13 6/16/13 8/11/13 9/15/13 11/17/13 12/15/13 2/16/14 3/16/14 5/18/14 6/15/14 8/10/14 8/31/14 10/19/14 11/16/14 12/7/14 2/15/15 3/15/15 5/17/15 5/31/15 8/16/15 9/6/15 11/15/15 12/6/15 2/14/16 3/6/16 5/15/16 6/5/16 8/14/16 9/11/16 11/20/16 12/4/16 02/26/17 3/12/17 5/21/17 6/4/17 8/20/17 9/3/17 11/26/17 12/10/17

Labor Report

Nov 2017

Participation rate 65.7%

Employment ratio 58.4%

Unemployment rate 11.0%

Youth Unemployment 32.7%

Blog 1/14/18

Industrial Production

Nov month ∆%: 0.0
12 months CA ∆%: 2.2

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/19/15

Retail Sales

Nov month ∆%: 1.1

Nov 12-month ∆%: 1.4

Earlier Data:

Blog 4/26/15

Business Confidence

Mfg Dec 110.5, Aug; 108.4

Construction Oct 127.1, Aug 128.4

Earlier Data:

Blog 4/5/15

Trade Balance

Balance Nov SA €4509 million
Exports Nov month SA ∆%: 2.1; Imports month ∆%: 1.4
Exports 12 months Nov NSA ∆%: 9.7 Imports 12 months NSA ∆%: 8.4

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/19/15

Links to blog comments in Table IT: 1/21/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/01/dollar-devaluation-and-increasing.html

1/14/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/01/dollar-devaluation-and-rising.html

12/31/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/dollar-devaluation-cyclically.html

12/24/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_23.html

12/17/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/fomc-increases-interest-rates-with.html

12/10/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

11/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/11/the-lost-economic-cycle-of-global_25.html

9/3/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

8/20/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

6/4/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

5/21/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/dollar-devaluation-world-inflation.html

3/12/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/increasing-interest-rates-twenty-four.html

2/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

12/4/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/rising-yields-and-dollar-revaluation.html

11/20/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/interest-rate-increase-could-well.html

9/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/interest-rate-uncertainty-and-valuation.html

8/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

6/5/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/financial-turbulence-twenty-four.html

5/15/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

3/6/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/twenty-five-million-unemployed-or.html

2/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/subdued-foreign-growth-and-dollar.html

12/6/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/liftoff-of-fed-funds-rate-followed-by.html

11/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-policy-conundrum-recovery.html

9/6/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what.html

08/16/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/exchange-rate-and-financial-asset.html

5/31/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/dollar-revaluation-squeezing-corporate.html

5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

12/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/financial-risks-twenty-six-million.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

10/19/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/imf-view-squeeze-of-economic-activity.html

8/31/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitical-and-financial-risks.html

8/10/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/volatility-of-valuations-of-risk_10.html

6/15/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financialgeopolitical-risks-recovery.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

8/11/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/recovery-without-hiring-loss-of-full.html

6/16/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/recovery-without-hiring-seven-million.html

3/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

VH United Kingdom. Annual data in Table VH-UK show the strong impact of the global recession in the UK with decline of GDP of 4.2 percent in 2009 after dropping 0.5 percent in 2008. Recovery of 1.7 percent in 2010 is relatively low in comparison with annual growth rates in 2007 and earlier years. Growth was only 1.5 percent in 2011 and 1.5 percent in 2012. Growth increased to 2.1 percent in 2013 and 3.1 percent in 2014. Growth fell to 2.3 percent in 2015 and 1.8 percent in 2016.  The bottom part of Table VH-UK provides average growth rates of UK GDP since 1948. The UK economy grew at 2.6 percent per year on average between 1948 and 2016, which is relatively high for an advanced economy. The growth rate of GDP between 2000 and 2007 is higher at 2.7 percent. Growth in the current cyclical expansion from 2010 to 2016 has been only at 2.0 percent as advanced economies struggle with weak internal demand and world trade. GDP in 2016 is higher by 9.4 percent relative to 2007 while it would have been 27.1 higher at trend of 2.7 percent as from 2000 to 2007.

Table VH-UK, UK, Gross Domestic Product, ∆%

∆% on Prior Year

1998

3.1

1999

3.2

2000

3.7

2001

2.5

2002

2.5

2003

3.3

2004

2.4

2005

3.1

2006

2.5

2007

2.4

2008

-0.5

2009

-4.2

2010

1.7

2011

1.5

2012

1.5

2013

2.1

2014

3.1

2015

2.3

2016

1.9

Average Growth Rates ∆% per Year

1948-2016

2.6

1950-1959

3.1

1960-1969

3.1

1970-1979

2.6

1980-1989

3.2

1990-1999

2.3

2000-2007

2.7

2007-2013*

1.9

2007-2014*

5.0

2007-2015

0.9

2007-2016

1.0

2000-2016

1.7

*Absolute change from 2007 to 2013 and 2007 to 2014

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/julytoseptember2017

The HIS Markit Flash UK PMI® Composite Output Index fell from 52.4 in Jun to 47.7 in Jul, which is the lowest in 87 months (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/b68c3686a48c40198505b81e4e55cd81). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds the index suggests pace of contraction of GDP at 0.4 percent in IIIQ2016 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/b68c3686a48c40198505b81e4e55cd81). The Business Activity Index of the IHS Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI® increased from 53.8 in Nov to 54.2 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/650e06cd67e34d3b974d3bfdf2626a40). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds the combined indices consistent with the UK economy growing close to 0.4 to 0.5 percent in IVQ2017 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/650e06cd67e34d3b974d3bfdf2626a40). The IHS Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®) decreased to 56.3 in Dec from 58.2 in Nov (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c6d5055ead4b4fd9a1e8f0a6dd95923f). New export orders increased. Rob Dobson, Director at IHS Markit that compiles the Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI®, finds strong quarterly manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c6d5055ead4b4fd9a1e8f0a6dd95923f). Table UK provides the economic indicators for the United Kingdom.

Table UK, UK Economic Indicators

CPI

Dec month ∆%: 0.4
Dec 12-month ∆%: 3.0
Blog 1/21/18

Output/Input Prices

Output Prices: Dec 12-month NSA ∆%: 3.3; excluding food, petroleum ∆%: 2.5
Input Prices: Dec 12-month NSA
∆%: 4.9
Excluding ∆%: 4.6
Blog 1/21/18

GDP Growth

IIIQ2017 prior quarter ∆% 0.4; year earlier same quarter ∆%: 1.7
Blog 3/31/13 4/28/13 5/26/13 7/28/13 8/25/13 9/29/13 10/27/13 12/1/13 12/22/13 2/2/14 3/2/14 4/6/14 5/4/14 5/25/14 6/29/14 7/27/14 8/17/14 10/5/14 10/26/14 11/30/14 12/28/14 2/1/15 3/1/15 4/5/15 5/3/15 5/31/15 7/5/15 8/2/15 9/6/15 10/4/15 11/1/15 11/29/15 12/27/15 1/31/16 2/28/16 4/3/16 5/1/16 5/29/16 7/3/16 7/31/16 9/4/16 10/9/16 10/30/16 11/27/16 1/1/17 2/5/17 2/26/17 4/9/17 5/7/2017 5/28/17 7/9/17 7/30/17 8/27/17 10/8/17 10/29/17 11/26/17 12/31/17

Industrial Production

Nov 2017/Nov 2016 ∆%: Production Industries 2.5; Manufacturing 3.5

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/12/15

Retail Sales

Nov month ∆%: 1.1
Nov 12-month ∆%: 1.6

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/26/15

Labor Market

Sep-Nov 2017 Unemployment Rate: 4.3%
Blog 1/28/18 LMGDP 5/17/15

GDP and the Labor Market

IQ2015 Employment 104.8

IQ2008 =100

GDP IQ15=104.0 IQ2008=100

Blog 5/17/14

Trade Balance UK Trade in Goods and Services

Balance SA Nov -£2804 million
Exports Nov ∆%: 0.6; Sep-Nov ∆%: 8.8
Imports Oct ∆%: 1.6 Sep-Nov ∆%: 5.4

EARLIER DATA:
Blog 4/12/15

Links to blog comments in Table UK: 1/21/18 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/01/dollar-devaluation-and-increasing.html

12/31/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/dollar-devaluation-cyclically.html

12/17/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/fomc-increases-interest-rates-with.html

11/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/11/the-lost-economic-cycle-of-global_25.html

10/29/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/dollar-revaluation-and-increase-of.html

10/8/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

8/27/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/dollar-devaluation-and-interest-rate.html

7/30/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/data-dependent-monetary-policy-with_30.html

7/9/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/rising-yields-twenty-two-million.html

5/28/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

2/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

2/5/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/twenty-six-million-unemployed-or.html

1/1/17 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/rules-versus-discretionary-authorities.html

11/27/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/dollar-revaluation-rising-yields-and.html

10/30/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/10/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_30.html

10/9/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/10/twenty-four-million-unemployed-or.html

9/4/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/interest-rates-and-valuations-of-risk.html

7/31/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/business-fixed-investment-has-been-soft.html

7/3/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/financial-asset-values-rebound-from.html

5/29/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/appropriate-for-fed-to-increase.html

5/1/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/economic-activity-appears-to-have.html

4/3/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/04/proceeding-cautiously-in-monetary.html

2/28/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

1/31/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/closely-monitoring-global-economic-and.html

12/27/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/dollar-revaluation-and-decreasing.html

11/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/dollar-revaluation-constraining.html

11/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-increase-considered.html

10/4/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/10/labor-market-uncertainty-and-interest.html

9/6/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what.html

08/02/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/turbulence-of-valuations-of-financial.html

7/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/07/turbulence-of-financial-asset.html

5/31/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/dollar-revaluation-squeezing-corporate.html

5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html

5/3/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/dollar-devaluation-and-carry-trade.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html

12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

10/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/financial-oscillations-world-inflation.html

10/5/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/world-financial-turbulence-twenty-seven.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

7/27/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

5/4/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html

4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html

3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html

2/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

12/22/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html

12/1/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/exit-risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html

10/27/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/twenty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html

9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html

7/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html

5/26/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

4/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_28.html

03/31/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

Table VH-L3 provides indicators of the labor force survey of the UK for Sep-Nov 2017 and earlier quarters. There has been improvement in UK labor markets with the rate of unemployment decreasing from 4.8 percent in Sep-Nov 2016 to 4.3 percent in Sep-Nov 2017.

Table VH-L3, UK, Labor Force Survey Indicators, Thousands, SA

LFHP

EMP

PART

UNE

RATE

Sep-Nov 2015

40,910

31,506

74.1

1,684

5.1

Sep-Nov 2016

41,060

31,792

74.5

1,600

4.8

Dec-Feb 2017

41,092

31,835

74.6

1,559

4.7

Mar-May 2017

41,125

32,010

74.9

1,495

4.5

Jun-Aug 2017

41,154

32,105

75.1

1,443

4.3

Sep-Nov 2017

41,177

32,207

75.3

1,439

4.3

∆ on Quarter

23

102

0.2

-3

0.0

∆%

0.1

0.3

-0.2

∆ on Year

117

415

0.9

-160

-0.5

∆%

0.3

1.3

-10.0

Notes: LFHP: Labor Force Household Population Ages 16 to 64 in thousands; EMP: Employed Ages 16 and over in thousands; PART: Employment as % of Population Ages 16 to 64; UNE: Unemployed Ages 16 and over in thousands; Rate: Number Unemployed Ages 16 and over as % of Employed plus Unemployed

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/january2018

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018.

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