CMP Associates Regulation Blog: Recovery without Hiring, Ten Million Fewer Full-Time Jobs, Youth and Middle-Age Unemployment, United States International Trade, Rules, Discretionary Authorities and Slow Productivity Growth, Collapse of United States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation, World Cyclical Slow Growth and Global Recession Risk: Part IV

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Recovery without Hiring, Ten Million Fewer Full-Time Jobs, Youth and Middle-Age Unemployment, United States International Trade, Rules, Discretionary Authorities and Slow Productivity Growth, Collapse of United States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation, World Cyclical Slow Growth and Global Recession Risk

I Recovery without Hiring

IA1 Hiring Collapse

IA2 Labor Underutilization

ICA3 Ten Million Fewer Full-time Jobs

IA4 Theory and Reality of Cyclical Slow Growth Not Secular Stagnation: Youth and Middle-Age Unemployment

IIA United States International Trade

IIB Rules, Discretionary Authorities and Slow Productivity Growth

II IB Collapse of United States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation

III World Financial Turbulence

IIIA Financial Risks

IIIE Appendix Euro Zone Survival Risk

IIIF Appendix on Sovereign Bond Valuation

IV Global Inflation

V World Economic Slowdown

VA United States

VB Japan

VC China

VD Euro Area

VE Germany

VF France

VG Italy

VH United Kingdom

VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets

VII Economic Indicators

VIII Interest Rates

IX Conclusion

References

Appendixes

Appendix I The Great Inflation

IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies

IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact

IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort

IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis

IIIGA Monetary Policy with Deficit Financing of Economic Growth

IIIGB Adjustment during the Debt Crisis of the 1980s

V World Economic Slowdown. Table V-1 is constructed with the database of the IMF (http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29) to show GDP in dollars in 2016 and the growth rate of real GDP of the world and selected regional countries from 2016 to 2019. The data illustrate the concept often repeated of “two-speed recovery” of the world economy from the recession of 2007 to 2009. The IMF has changed its forecast of the world economy to 3.6 percent in 2017 but accelerating to 3.7 percent in 2018 and 3.7 percent in 2019. Slow-speed recovery occurs in the “major advanced economies” of the G7 that account for $35,516 billion of world output of $75,368 billion, or 47.1 percent, but are projected to grow at much lower rates than world output, 1.7 percent on average from 2016 to 2019, in contrast with 3.6 percent for the world as a whole. While the world would grow 15.0 percent in the four years from 2016 to 2018, the G7 as a whole would grow 7.1 percent. The difference in dollars of 2016 is high: growing by 15.0 percent would add around $11.3 trillion of output to the world economy, or roughly, over two times the output of the economy of Japan of $4,937 billion but growing by 7.1 percent would add $5.4 trillion of output to the world, or about the output of Japan in 2016. The “two speed” concept is in reference to the growth of the 150 countries labeled as emerging and developing economies (EMDE) with joint output in 2016 of $29,183 billion, or 38.7 percent of world output. The EMDEs would grow cumulatively 20.2 percent or at the average yearly rate of 4.7 percent, contributing $5.9 trillion from 2016 to 2019 or the equivalent of somewhat more than one half the GDP of $11,232 billion of China in 2016. The final four countries in Table I-1 often referred as BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China), are large, rapidly growing emerging economies. Their combined output in 2016 adds to $16,578 billion, or 22.0 percent of world output, which is equivalent to 46.7 percent of the combined output of the major advanced economies of the G7.

Table V-1, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Real GDP Growth

	GDP USD Billions 2016	Real GDP ∆% 2016	Real GDP ∆% 2017	Real GDP ∆% 2018	Real GDP ∆% 2019
World	75,368	3.2	3.6	3.7	3.7
G7	35,516	1.4	2.0	1.9	1.6
Canada	1,530	1.5	3.0	2.1	1.7
France	2,466	1.2	1.6	1.8	1.9
DE	3,479	1.9	2.1	1.8	1.5
Italy	1,851	0.9	1.5	1.1	0.9
Japan	4,937	1.0	1.5	0.7	0.8
UK	2,629	1.8	1.7	1.5	1.6
US	18,624	1.5	2.2	2.3	1.9
Euro Area	11,923	1.7	2.1	1.9	1.7
DE	3,479	1.9	2.1	1.8	1.5
France	2,466	1.2	1.6	1.8	1.9
Italy	1,851	0.9	1.5	1.1	0.9
POT	205	1.4	2.5	2.0	1.7
Ireland	304	5.2	4.1	3.4	3.0
Greece	195	0.0	1.8	2.6	1.9
Spain	1,233	3.2	3.1	2.5	2.0
EMDE	29,183	4.3	4.6	4.9	5.0
Brazil	1,799	-3.6	0.7	1.5	2.0
Russia	1,283	-0.2	1.8	1.6	1.5
India	2,264	7.1	6.7	7.4	7.8
China	11,232	6.7	6.8	6.5	6.3

Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries); POT: Portugal

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook databank

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2017/02/weodata/index.aspx

Continuing high rates of unemployment in advanced economies constitute another characteristic of the database of the WEO (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2017/02/weodata/index.aspx). Table V-2 is constructed with the WEO database to provide rates of unemployment from 2015 to 2019 for major countries and regions. In fact, unemployment rates for 2015 in Table I-2 are high for all countries: unusually high for countries with high rates most of the time and unusually high for countries with low rates most of the time. The rates of unemployment are particularly high in 2015 for the countries with sovereign debt difficulties in Europe: 12.4 percent for Portugal (POT), 9.5 percent for Ireland, 24.9 percent for Greece, 22.1 percent for Spain and 11.9 percent for Italy, which is lower but still high. The G7 rate of unemployment is 5.8 percent. Unemployment rates are not likely to decrease substantially if slow growth persists in advanced economies.

Table V-2, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Unemployment Rate as Percent of Labor Force

	% Labor Force 2015	% Labor Force 2016	% Labor Force 2017	% Labor Force 2018	% Labor Force 2019
World	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
G7	5.8	5.4	5.0	4.8	4.8
Canada	6.9	7.0	6.5	6.3	6.2
France	10.4	10.0	9.5	9.0	8.7
DE	4.6	4.2	3.8	3.7	3.7
Italy	11.9	11.7	11.4	11.0	10.6
Japan	3.4	3.2	2.9	2.9	2.9
UK	5.4	4.9	4.4	4.4	4.6
US	5.3	4.9	4.4	4.1	4.2
Euro Area	10.9	10.0	9.2	8.7	8.3
DE	4.6	4.2	3.8	3.7	3.7
France	10.4	10.0	9.5	9.0	8.7
Italy	11.9	11.7	11.4	11.0	10.6
POT	12.4	11.1	9.7	9.0	8.5
Ireland	9.5	7.9	6.4	5.9	5.8
Greece	24.9	23.6	22.3	20.7	19.5
Spain	22.1	19.6	17.1	15.6	15.0
EMDE	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
Brazil	8.3	11.3	13.1	12.0	11.0
Russia	5.6	5.5	5.5	5.5	5.5
India	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
China	4.1	4.0	4.0	4.0	4.0

Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries)

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2017/02/weodata/index.aspx

Table V-3 provides the latest available estimates of GDP for the regions and countries followed in this blog from IQ2012 to IVQ2016 available now for all countries. There are estimates for all countries for IQ2017 and IIQ2017. There are preliminary estimates for IIIQ2017. Growth is weak throughout most of the world.

Japan. The GDP of Japan increased 1.1 percent in IQ2012, 4.4 percent at SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) and 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier but part of the jump could be the low level a year earlier because of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan is experiencing difficulties with the overvalued yen because of worldwide capital flight originating in zero interest rates with risk aversion in an environment of softer growth of world trade. Japan’s GDP fell 0.5 percent in IIQ2012 at the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of minus 1.8 percent, which is much lower than 4.4 percent in IQ2012. Growth of 2.9 percent in IIQ2012 in Japan relative to IIQ2011 has effects of the low level of output because of Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IIIQ2012 at the SAAR of minus 1.6 percent and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 at the SAAR of 0.5 percent and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan grew 1.2 percent in IQ2013 at the SAAR of 4.9 percent and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 1.0 percent in IIQ2013 at the SAAR of 3.9 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP grew 0.7 percent in IIIQ2013 at the SAAR of 2.7 percent and increased 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Japan’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent at the SAAR of minus 0.4 percent, increasing 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 1.1 percent in IQ2014 at the SAAR of 4.4 percent and increased 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Japan’s GDP fell 1.9 percent at the SAAR of minus 7.4 percent and fell 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 at the SAAR of minus 0.5 percent and fell 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, Japan’s GDP grew 0.7 percent, at the SAAR of 3.0 percent, decreasing 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 1.1 percent in IQ2015 at the SAAR of 4.6 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2015 at the SAAR of minus 0.1 percent and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2015 at the SAAR of 0.7 percent and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.2 percent in IVQ2015 at the SAAR of minus 0.9 percent and grew 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, the GDP of Japan increased 0.5 percent at the SAAR of 2.1 percent and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2016 at the SAAR of 2.0 percent and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of Japan increased 0.2 percent at the SAAR of 0.9 percent and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2016 at the SAAR of 1.6 percent and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, the GDP of Japan increased 0.3 percent at the SAAR of 1.2 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2017 at the SAAR of 2.5 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier.
China. China’s GDP grew 1.9 percent in IQ2012, annualizing to 7.8 percent, and 8.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 2.1 percent in IIQ2012, which annualizes to 8.7 percent, and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 1.8 percent in IIIQ2012, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and 7.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, China grew at 2.0 percent, which annualizes at 8.2 percent, and 8.1 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, China grew at 1.9 percent, which annualizes at 7.8 percent, and 7.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, China grew at 1.7 percent, which annualizes at 7.0 percent, and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 2.1 percent in IIIQ2013, which annualizes at 8.7 percent, and increased 7.9 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 1.6 percent in IVQ2013, which annualized to 6.6 percent, and 7.7 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP grew 1.7 percent in IQ2014, which annualizes to 7.0 percent, and 7.4 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP grew 1.8 percent in IIQ2014, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and 7.5 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP grew 1.8 percent in IIIQ2014, which is equivalent to 7.4 percent in a year, and 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew 1.7 percent in IVQ2014, which annualizes at 7.2 percent, and 7.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 1.7 percent in IQ2015, which annualizes at 7.0 percent, and 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew 1.7 percent in IIQ2015, which annualizes at 7.0 percent, and increased 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2015, China’s GDP grew at 1.7 percent, which annualizes at 7.0 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 1.6 percent in IVQ2015, which annualizes at 6.6 percent, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew 1.3 percent in IQ2016, which annualizes at 5.3 percent, and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2016, the GDP of China increased 1.9 percent, which annualizes to 7.8 percent, and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China increased at 1.8 percent in IIIQ2016, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China increased at 1.7 percent in IVQ2016, which annualizes at 7.0 percent, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China increased at 1.4 percent in IQ2017, which annualizes at 5.7 percent and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP increased at 1.8 percent in IIQ2017, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China increased 1.7 percent in IIIQ2017, which annualizes at 7.0 percent, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. There was decennial change in leadership in China (http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/special/18cpcnc/index.htm). Xi Jinping initiated a second term of leadership in Oct 2017 (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-10/25/c_136705344.htm). Growth rates of GDP of China in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier have been declining from 2011 to 2017.
Euro Area. GDP fell 0.2 percent in the euro area in IQ2012 and decreased 0.5 in IQ2012 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP contracted 0.3 percent IIQ2012 and fell 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.2 percent and declined 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.4 percent relative to the prior quarter and fell 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, the GDP of the euro area fell 0.3 percent and decreased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2013, euro area GDP increased 0.3 percent and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2013 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The euro area’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 0.8 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The euro area’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.6 percent in IVQ2016 and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, euro are GDP increased 0.5 percent and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2017 and increased 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier.
Germany. The GDP of Germany increased 0.3 percent in IQ2012 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier but 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier when adjusted for calendar (CA) effects. In IIIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IVQ2012 and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, Germany’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent and fell 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 0.9 percent and grew 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2013 and grew 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.9 percent in IQ2014 and grew 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Germany’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.9 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.1 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and grew 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2015 and grew 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2015 and grew 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, the GDP of Germany increased 0.6 percent and grew 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 3.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of Germany increased 0.3 percent and grew 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2016 and grew 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, the GDP of Germany increased 0.7 percent and grew 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2017 and grew 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier.
United States. Growth of US GDP in IQ2012 was 0.7 percent, at SAAR of 2.7 percent and higher by 2.8 percent relative to IQ2011. US GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2012, 1.9 percent at SAAR and 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, US GDP grew 0.1 percent, 0.5 percent at SAAR and 2.4 percent relative to IIIQ2011. In IVQ2012, US GDP grew 0.0 percent, 0.1 percent at SAAR and 1.3 percent relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, US GDP grew at 2.8 percent SAAR, 0.7 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.3 percent relative to the same quarter in 2012. In IIQ2013, US GDP grew at 0.8 percent in SAAR, 0.2 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.0 percent relative to IIQ2012. US GDP grew at 3.1 percent in SAAR in IIIQ2013, 0.8 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.7 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/dollar-revaluation-and-increase-of.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/destruction-of-household-nonfinancial.html). In IVQ2013, US GDP grew 1.0 percent at 4.0 percent SAAR and 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, US GDP decreased 0.2 percent, increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier and fell 0.9 percent at SAAR. In IIQ2014, US GDP increased 1.1 percent at 4.6 percent SAAR and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP increased 1.3 percent in IIIQ2014 at 5.2 percent SAAR and increased 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, US GDP increased 0.5 percent at SAAR of 2.0 percent and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IQ2015 at SAAR of 3.2 percent and grew 3.8 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR 2.7 percent in IIQ2015, increasing 0.7 percent in the quarter and 3.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 at SAAR of 1.6 percent and grew 2.4 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 0.5 percent in IVQ2015, increasing 0.1 percent in the quarter and 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, US GDP grew 0.1 percent at SAAR of 0.6 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.2 percent in IIQ2016, increasing 0.6 percent in the quarter and 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, US GDP grew 0.7 percent at SAAR of 2.8 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 1.8 percent in IVQ2016, increasing 0.4 percent in the quarter, and increasing 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, US GDP grew 0.3 percent at SAAR of 1.2 percent and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 3.1 percent in IIQ2017, increasing 0.8 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, US GDP grew 0.7 percent at SAAR of 3.0 percent and increased 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier.
United Kingdom. In IQ2012, UK GDP increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, GDP fell 0.1 percent relative to IQ2012 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, GDP increased 1.2 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier. In IVQ2012, GDP fell 0.1 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Fiscal consolidation in an environment of weakening economic growth is much more challenging. GDP increased 1.5 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 0.6 percent in IQ2013 relative to IVQ2012. In IIQ2013, GDP increased 0.5 percent and 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.9 percent in IIIQ2013 and 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2013 and 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, GDP increased 0.9 percent and 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.9 percent in IIQ2014 and 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIIQ2014 and 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, GDP increased 0.8 percent and 3.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2015 and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2016 and grew 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IVQ2016 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2017 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2017 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier.
Italy. In IIQ2017, the GDP of Italy increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, the GDP of Italy increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2016, GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2015, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2015 and 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy changed 0.0 percent in IQ2014 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2013 and fell 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2013 and fell 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.1 in IIQ2013 and fell 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 1.1 percent in IQ2013 and declined 2.9 percent relative to IQ2012. GDP had been growing during six consecutive quarters but at very low rates from IQ2010 to IIQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell in seven consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at increasingly higher rates of contraction from 0.5 percent in IIIQ2011 to 1.0 percent in IVQ2011, 0.9 percent in IQ2012, 0.8 percent in IIQ2012 and 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012. The pace of decline accelerated to minus 0.6 percent in IVQ2012 and minus 1.1 percent in IQ2013. GDP contracted cumulatively 5.3 percent in seven consecutive quarterly contractions from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at the annual equivalent rate of minus 3.1 percent. The yearly rate has fallen from 2.2 percent in IVQ2010 to minus 2.8 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.9 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.0 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.3 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.7 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.0 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.1 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.9 percent in IIIQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.2 percent in IVQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.2 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.5 percent in IIQ2017 relative to a year earlier. Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of Italy in IIQ2017 of €397,445 million (http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/203116) is lower by 6.4 percent relative to €424,823.8 million in IQ2008 (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat). Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of Italy increased from €367,664.4 million in IQ1998 to €424,823.8 million in IQ2008 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.5 percent. The fiscal adjustment of Italy is significantly more difficult with the economy not growing especially on the prospects of increasing government revenue. The strategy is for reforms to improve productivity, facilitating future fiscal consolidation.
France. France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2012 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IIQ2012 and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2013 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2013 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2013 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2015, France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2015, the GDP of France increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France decreased 0.1 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, the GDP of France increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2017, the GDP of France increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2017 and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier.

Table V-3, Percentage Changes of GDP Quarter on Prior Quarter and on Same Quarter Year Earlier, ∆%

	IQ2012/IVQ2011	IQ2012/IQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.7	2.8
Japan	QOQ: 1.1 SAAR: 4.4	2.9
China	1.9 AE 7.8	8.1
Euro Area	-0.2	-0.5
Germany	0.3	1.6
France	0.1	0.4
Italy	-0.9	-2.3
United Kingdom	0.6	1.4
	IIQ2012/IQ2012	IIQ2012/IIQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 1.9	2.5
Japan	QOQ: -0.5 SAAR: -1.8	2.9
China	2.1 AE 8.7	7.6
Euro Area	-0.3	-0.8
Germany	0.1	0.4 0.9 CA
France	-0.1	0.3
Italy	-0.8	-3.2
United Kingdom	-0.1	1.1
	IIIQ2012/ IIQ2012	IIIQ2012/ IIIQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.5	2.4
Japan	QOQ: –0.4 SAAR: –1.6	0.0
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.5
Euro Area	-0.2	-1.0
Germany	0.2	0.2
France	0.1	0.2
Italy	-0.5	-3.2
United Kingdom	1.2	1.9
	IVQ2012/IIIQ2012	IVQ2012/IVQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.0 SAAR: 0.1	1.3
Japan	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.5	0.2
China	2.0 AE 8.2	8.1
Euro Area	-0.4	-1.1
Germany	-0.4	-0.1
France	-0.1	0.0
Italy	-0.6	-2.8
United Kingdom	-0.1	1.5
	IQ2013/IVQ2012	IQ2013/IQ2012
United States	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.8	1.3
Japan	QOQ: 1.2 SAAR: 4.9	0.7
China	1.9 AE 7.8	7.9
Euro Area	-0.3	-1.2
Germany	-0.2	-1.5
France	0.0	0.0
Italy	-1.1	-2.9
UK	0.6	1.5
	IIQ2013/IQ2013	IIQ2013/IIQ2012
United States	QOQ: 0.2 SAAR: 0.8	1.0
Japan	QOQ: 1.0 SAAR: 3.9	1.8
China	1.7 AE 7.0	7.6
Euro Area	0.5	-0.4
Germany	0.9	0.9
France	0.7	0.8
Italy	0.1	-2.0
UK	0.5	2.2
	IIIQ2013/IIQ2013	III/Q2013/ IIIQ2012
USA	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.1	1.7
Japan	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.7	2.8
China	2.1 AE 8.7	7.9
Euro Area	0.3	0.1
Germany	0.5	1.2
France	0.0	0.6
Italy	0.3	-1.3
UK	0.9	1.9
	IVQ2013/IIIQ2013	IVQ2013/IVQ2012
USA	QOQ: 1.0 SAAR: 4.0	2.7
Japan	QOQ: -0.1 SAAR: -0.4	2.7
China	1.6 AE 6.6	7.7
Euro Area	0.3	0.8
Germany	0.4	1.4
France	0.4	1.1
Italy	0.0	-0.7
UK	0.5	2.6
	IQ2014/IVQ2013	IQ2014/IQ2013
USA	QOQ -0.2 SAAR -0.9	1.7
Japan	QOQ: 1.1 SAAR: 4.4	3.1
China	1.7 AE 7.0	7.4
Euro Area	0.4	1.5
Germany	0.9	3.0
France	0.1	1.2
Italy	0.0	0.4
UK	0.9	2.8
	IIQ2014/IQ2014	IIQ2014/IIQ2013
USA	QOQ 1.1 SAAR 4.6	2.7
Japan	QOQ: -1.9 SAAR: -7.4	-0.3
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.5
Euro Area	0.1	1.2
Germany	-0.2	1.3
France	0.2	0.7
Italy	0.0	0.2
UK	0.9	3.1
	IIIQ2014/IIQ2014	IIIQ2014/IIIQ2013
USA	QOQ: 1.3 SAAR: 5.2	3.2
Japan	QOQ: -0.1 SAAR: -0.5	-1.1
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.1
Euro Area	0.4	1.3
Germany	0.3	1.5
France	0.5	1.2
Italy	0.1	0.1
UK	0.8	3.0
	IVQ2014/IIIQ2014	IVQ2014/IVQ2013
USA	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.0	2.7
Japan	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 3.0	-0.3
China	1.7 AE 7.0	7.2
Euro Area	0.4	1.4
Germany	0.9	2.0
France	0.0	0.8
Italy	0.0	0.1
UK	0.8	3.3
	IQ2015/IVQ2014	IQ2015/IQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.2	3.8
Japan	QOQ: 1.1 SAAR: 4.6	-0.1
China	1.7 AE 7.0	7.0
Euro Area	0.8	1.8
Germany	0.1	1.3
France	0.4	1.2
Italy	0.2	0.3
UK	0.3	2.7
	IIQ2015/IQ2015	IIQ2015/IIQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.7	3.3
Japan	QOQ: 0.0 SAAR: -0.1	1.7
China	1.7 AE 7.0	7.0
Euro Area	0.3	1.9
Germany	0.4	1.8
France	0.0	0.9
Italy	0.3	0.7
UK	0.6	2.5
	IIIQ2015/IIQ2015	IIIQ2015/IIIQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.6	2.4
Japan	QOQ: 0.2 SAAR: 0.7	2.0
China	1.7 AE 7.0	6.9
Euro Area	0.4	2.0
Germany	0.3	1.8
France	0.4	0.8
Italy	0.2	0.7
UK	0.4	2.1
	IVQ2015/IIIQ2015	IVQ2015/IVQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.5	2.0
Japan	QOQ: -0.2 SAAR: -0.9	0.9
China	1.6 AE 6.6	6.8
Euro Area	0.4	1.9
Germany	0.4	2.1
France	0.3	1.0
Italy	0.2	1.0
UK	0.7	2.1
	IQ2016/IVQ2015	IQ2016/IQ2015
USA	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.6	1.4
Japan	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.1	0.5
China	1.3 AE 5.3	6.7
Euro Area	0.5	1.7
Germany	0.6	1.5
France	0.6	1.2
Italy	0.4	1.1
UK	0.2	1.9
	IIQ2016/IQ2016	IIQ2016/IIQ2015
USA	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.2	1.2
Japan	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.0	0.9
China	1.9 AE 7.8	6.7
Euro Area	0.3	1.7
Germany	0.5	3.3
France	-0.1	1.2
Italy	0.1	0.8
UK	0.5	1.8
	IIIQ2016/IIQ2016	IIIQ2016/IIIQ2015
United States	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.8	1.5
Japan	QOQ: 0.2 SAAR: 0.9	1.1
China	1.8 AE 7.4	6.7
Euro Area	0.5	1.7
Germany	0.3	1.7
France	0.1	0.9
Italy	0.3	0.9
UK	0.4	1.8
	IVQ2016/IIIQ2016	IVQ2016/IVQ2015
United States	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.8	1.8
Japan	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.6	1.7
China	1.7 AE 7.0	6.8
Euro Area	0.6	1.9
Germany	0.4	1.3
France	0.6	1.2
Italy	0.4	1.2
UK	0.6	1.6
	IQ2017/IVQ2016	IQ2017/IQ2016
United States	QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.2	2.0
Japan	QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.2	1.5
China	1.4 AE 5.7	6.9
Euro Area	0.5	2.0
Germany	0.7	3.2
France	0.5	1.1
Italy	0.4	1.2
UK	0.3	1.8
	IIQ2017/IQ2017	IIQ2017/IIQ2016
USA	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.1	2.2
Japan	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.5	1.4
China	1.8 AE 7.4	6.9
Euro Area	0.6	2.3
Germany	0.6	0.8
France	0.6	1.8
Italy	0.4	1.5
UK	0.3	1.5
	IIIQ2017/IIQ2017	IIIQ2017/IIIQ2016
USA	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 3.0	2.3
China	1.7 AE 7.0	6.8
France	0.5	2.2
UK	0.4	1.5

QOQ: Quarter relative to prior quarter; SAAR: seasonally adjusted annual rate

Source: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.census.gov/aboutus/stat_int.html

Table V-4 provides two types of data: growth of exports and imports in the latest available months and in the past 12 months; and contributions of net trade (exports less imports) to growth of real GDP.

Japan. Japan provides the most worrisome data (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/global-decline-of-values-of-financial.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/07/valuation-of-risk-financial-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/fluctuating-financial-asset-valuations.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/dollar-revaluation-squeezing-corporate.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/patience-on-interest-rate-increases.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/monetary-policy-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/valuation-risks-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/interest-rate-risks-world-inflation.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/global-financial-risk-world-inflation.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations_8763.html http://cmpass ocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/paring-quantitative-easing-policy-and_4699.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/thirty-one-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/12/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_24.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/11/contraction-of-united-states-real_25.html and for GDP http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what_13.html). In Sep 2017, Japan’s exports increased 14.1 percent in 12 months while imports increased 12.0 percent. The second part of Table V-4 shows that net trade deducted 2.0 percentage points from Japan’s growth of GDP in IIQ2012, deducted 1.9 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2012 and deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2012. Net trade added 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2012, 1.4 percentage points in IQ2013 and deducted 0.1 percentage points in IIQ2013. In IIIQ2013, net trade deducted 1.3 percentage points from GDP growth in Japan. Net trade deducted 2.2 percentage points from GDP growth in Japan in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 0.8 percentage points from GDP growth of Japan in IQ2014. Net trade added 4.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2014 and added 1.5 percentage points in IVQ2014. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2015 and deducted 0.5 percentage points in IIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2015 and contributed 0.0 percentage points in IVQ2015. Net trade added 1.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2016 and added 0.2 percentage points in IIQ2016. Net trade added 1.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2016 and added 1.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2016. Net trade added 0.5 percentage points in IQ2017 and deducted 1.2 percentage points in IIQ2017.

China. In Oct 2017, China exports increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier and imports increased 17.2 percent.
Germany. Germany’s exports decreased 0.4 percent in the month of Sep 2017 and increased 4.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2017. Germany’s imports decreased 1.0 percent in the month of Sep 2017 and increased 5.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2017. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to growth of GDP in IQ2012, contributed 0.4 percentage points in IIQ2012, contributed 0.3 percentage points in IIIQ2012, deducted 0.5 percentage points in IVQ2012, deducted 0.3 percentage points in IQ2013 and added 0.1 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded deducted 0.5 percentage points from Germany’s GDP growth in IIIQ2013 and added 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2014. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2014 and added 0.5 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 0.1 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.5 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points in IVQ2015 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.4 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.4 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2017.
United Kingdom. Net trade contributed 0.7 percentage points in IIQ2013. In IIIQ2013, net trade deducted 1.7 percentage points from UK growth. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to UK value added in IVQ2013. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to UK value added in IQ2014 and 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2014 and added 0.0 percentage points in IVQ2014. Net traded deducted 0.4 percentage points from growth in IQ2015. Net trade added 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.5 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.4 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.7-percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 1.4 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade added 1.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.4 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2017 and contributed 0.4 percentage points in IIQ2017.
France. France’s exports increased 0.3 percent in Sep 2017 while imports increased 1.3 percent. France’s exports increased 8.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2017 and imports increased 7.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Net traded added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IIIQ2012 and 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IQ2013 and added 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2013, deducting 1.7 percentage points in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IVQ2013 and deducted 0.1 percentage points in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IIQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to France’s GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.6 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015 and deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.3 percentage points to GDP in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP in IIIQ2016 and added 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP in IQ2017 and added 0.6 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2017.
United States. US exports increased 1.1 percent in Sep 2017 and goods exports increased 6.2 percent in Jan-Sep 2017 relative to a year earlier. Imports increased 1.2 percent in Sep 2016 and goods imports increased 6.4 percent in Jan-Sep 2017 relative to a year earlier. Net trade added 0.28 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2012 and added 0.16 percentage points in IIIQ2012 and 0.58 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade added 0.30 percentage points to US GDP growth in IQ2013 and deducted 0.21 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded added 0.13 percentage points to US GDP growth in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 1.29 percentage points to US GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 1.14 percentage points from US GDP growth in IQ2014 and deducted 0.40 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade added 0.28 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2014. Net trade deducted 1.02 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 1.64 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.03 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.77 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.28 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.28 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.28 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade added 0.36 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade deducted 1.61 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2016. Net trade added 0.22 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017. Net trade added 0.21 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2017. Net trade added 41 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Manufacturing jobs not seasonally adjusted increased 150,000 from Oct 2016 to
Oct 2017 or at the average monthly rate of 12,500. Industrial production increased 0.3 percent in Sep 2017 and decreased 0.7 percent in Aug 2017 after decreasing 0.7 percent in Jul 2017, with all data seasonally adjusted. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System conducted the annual revision of industrial production released on Mar 31, 2017 (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/revisions/Current/DefaultRev.htm):

“The Federal Reserve has revised its index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization.[1] On net, the revisions were small, and the contour of total IP is little changed. Total IP is still reported to have moved up about 22 percent from the end of the recession in mid-2009 through late 2014, to have declined in 2015, and to have moved sideways in 2016. The most notable difference between the current and the previous estimates is that total IP is now reported to have decreased about 2 3/4 percent in 2015, whereas it previously showed a decline of about 1 3/4 percent.[2] The incorporation of detailed data for manufacturing from the U.S. Census Bureau's 2015 Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM) accounts for the majority of the differences between the current and the previously published estimates.

Capacity for total industry is now reported to have expanded about 1 percent in 2015, a lower rate of increase than was reported earlier. Capacity was little changed in 2016 and is expected to increase 1 percent in 2017. Compared with prior reports, the rates of change in 2016 and 2017 are now a little smaller. In the fourth quarter of 2016, capacity utilization for total industry stood at 75.8 percent, a rate 0.4 percentage point higher than previously published but still 4.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2016) average. Relative to earlier estimates, the utilization rates in recent years are now a little higher.” Manufacturing fell 22.3 from the peak in Jun 2007 to the trough in Apr 2009 and increased 15.5 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Dec 2016. Manufacturing grew 19.3 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Sep 2017. Manufacturing in Sep 2017 is lower by 7.4 percent relative to the peak in Jun 2007. The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IIIQ2017 would have accumulated to 33.4 percent. GDP in IIIQ2017 would be $19,999.1 billion (in constant dollars of 2009) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $2842.2 billion than actual $17,156.9 billion. There are about two trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 21.2 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 12.5 percent of the effective labor force (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/11/unchanged-fomc-policy-rate-gradual.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html). US GDP in IIIQ2017 is 14.2 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $14,991.8 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $17,156.9 billion in IIIQ2017 or 14.4 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.4 percent. Professor John H. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. Cochrane (2016May02) measures GDP growth in the US at average 3.5 percent per year from 1950 to 2000 and only at 1.76 percent per year from 2000 to 2015 with only at 2.0 percent annual equivalent in the current expansion. Cochrane (2016May02) proposes drastic changes in regulation and legal obstacles to private economic activity. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 3.1 percent per year from Sep 1919 to Sep 2017. Growth at 3.1 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output from 108.2393 in Dec 2007 to 145.7662 in Sep 2017. The actual index NSA in Sep 2017 is 104.2863, which is 28.5 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 2.0 percent between Dec 1986 and Sep 2017. Using trend growth of 2.0 percent per year, the index would increase to 131.2915 in Sep 2017. The output of manufacturing at 104.2863 in Sep 2017 is 20.6 percent below trend under this alternative calculation.

Table V-4, Growth of Trade and Contributions of Net Trade to GDP Growth, ∆% and % Points

	Exports M ∆%	Exports 12 M ∆%	Imports M ∆%	Imports 12 M ∆%
USA	1.1 Sep	6.2 Jan-Sep	1.2 Aug	6.4 Jan-Sep
Japan		Sep 2017 14.1 Aug 2017 18.1 Jul 2017 13.4 Jun 2017 9.7 May 2017 14.9 Apr 2017 7.5 Mar 2017 12.0 Feb 2017 11.3 Jan 2017 1.3 Dec 2016 5.4 Nov 2016 -0.4 Oct 2016 -10.3 Sep 2016 -6.9 Aug 2016 9.6 Jul 2016 -14.0 Jun 2016 -7.8 May 2016 -11.3 Apr 2016 -10.1 Mar 2016 -6.8 Feb 2016 -4.0 Jan 2016 -12.9 Dec 2015 -8.0 Nov 2015 -3.3 Oct 2015 -2.1 Sep 2015 0.6 Aug 3.1 Jul 2015 7.6 Jun 2015 9.5 May 2015 2.4 Apr 8.0 Mar 8.5 Feb 2.4 Jan 17.0 Dec 12.9 Nov 4.9 Oct 9.6 Sep 6.9 Aug -1.3 Jul 3.9 Jun -2.0 May 2014 -2.7 Apr 2014 5.1 Mar 2014 1.8 Feb 2014 9.5 Jan 2014 9.5 Dec 2013 15.3 Nov 2013 18.4 Oct 2013 18.6 Sep 2013 11.5 Aug 2013 14.7 Jul 2013 12.2 Jun 2013 7.4 May 2013 10.1 Apr 2013 3.8 Mar 2013 1.1 Feb 2013 -2.9 Jan 2013 6.4 Dec -5.8 Nov -4.1 Oct -6.5 Sep -10.3 Aug -5.8 Jul -8.1		Sep 2017 12.0 Aug 2017 15.2 Jul 2017 16.3 Jun 2017 15.5 May 2017 17.8 Apr 2017 15.1 Mar 2017 15.8 Feb 2017 1.2 Jan 2017 8.5 Dec 2016 -2.6 Nov 2016 -8.8 Oct 2016 -16.5 Sep 2016 -16.3 Aug 2016 -17.3 Jul 2016 -24.7 Jun 2016 -18.8 May 2016 -13.8 Apr 2016 -23.3 Mar 2016 -14.9 Feb 2016 -14.2 Jan 2016 -18.0 Dec 2015 -18.0 Nov 2015 -10.2 Oct 2015 -13.4 Sep 2015 -11.1 Aug -3.1 Jul 2015 -3.2 Jun 2015 -2.9 May 2015 -8.7 Apr -4.2 Mar -14.5 Feb -3.6 Jan -9.0 Dec 1.9 Nov -1.7 Oct 2.7 Sep 6.2 Aug -1.5 Jul 2.3 Jun 8.4 May 2014 -3.6 Apr 2013 3.4 Mar 2014 18.1 Feb 2014 9.0 Jan 2014 25.0 Dec 2013 24.7 Nov 2013 21.1 Oct 2013 26.1 Sep 2013 16.5 Aug 2013 16.0 Jul 2013 19.6 Jun 2013 11.8 May 2013 10.0 Apr 2013 9.4 Mar 2013 5.5 Feb 2013 7.3 Jan 2013 7.3 Dec 1.9 Nov 0.8 Oct -1.6 Sep 4.1 Aug -5.4 Jul 2.1
China	Jan-Dec 2016 -7.7 Jan-Dec 2015 -2.8	2017 Oct 6.9 Sep 8.1 Aug 5.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 11.3 May 8.7 Apr 8.0 Mar 16.4 Feb -1.3 Jan 7.9 2016 Dec 3.1 Nov 0.1 Oct -7.3 Sep -10.0 Aug -2.8 Jul -4.4 Jun -4.8 May -4.1 Apr -1.8 Mar 11.5 Feb -25.4 Jan -11.2 2015 -1.4 Dec -6.8 Nov -6.9 Oct -3.7 Sep -5.5 Aug -8.3 Jul 2.8 Jun -2.5 May -6.4 Apr -15.0 Mar 48.3 Feb -3.3 Jan 2014 9.7 Dec 4.7 Nov 11.6 Oct 15.3 Sep 9.4 Aug 14.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 7.0 May 0.9 Apr -6.6 Mar -18.1 Feb 10.6 Jan 2013 4.3 Dec 12.7 Nov 5.6 Oct -0.3 Sep 7.2 Aug 5.1 Jul -3.1 Jun 1.0 May 14.7 Apr 10.0 Mar 21.8 Feb 25.0 Jan	Jan-Dec 2016 -5.5 Jan-Dec 2015 -14.1	2017 Sep 17.2 Sep 18.7 Aug 13.3 Jul 11.0 Jun 17.2 May 14.8 Apr 11.9 Mar 20.3 Feb 38.1 Jan 16.7 2016 Dec -7.7 Nov 6.7 Oct -1.4 Sep -1.9 Aug 1.5 Jul -12.5 Jun -2.8 May -0.4 Apr -10.6 Mar -7.6 Feb -13.8 Jan -18.8 2015 -7.6 Dec -8.7 Nov -18.8 Oct -20.4 Sep -13.8 Aug -8.1 Jul -6.1 Jun -17.6 May -12.7 Mar -20.5 Feb -19.9 Jan 2014 -2.4 Dec -6.7 Nov 4.6 Oct 7.0 Sep -2.4 Aug -1.6 Jul 5.5 Jun -1.6 May -0.8 Apr -11.3 Mar 10.1 Feb 10.0 Jan 2013 8.3 Dec 5.3 Nov 7.6 Oct 7.4 Sep 7.0 Aug 10.9 Jul -0.7 Jun -0.3 May 16.8 Apr 14.1 Mar -15.2 Feb 28.8 Jan
Euro Area	6.8 12-M Aug	7.6 Jan-Aug	8.6 12-M Aug	11.1 Jan-Aug
Germany	-0.4 Sep CSA	4.6 Sep	-1.0 Sep CSA	5.5 Sep
France Se[	0.3	8.2	1.3	7.2
Italy Aug	4.2	8.4	3.5	8.2
UK	2.2 Sep	11.4 Jul 17-Sep 17 /Jul 16-Sep 16	0.7 Sep	5.4 Jul 17-Sep 17 /Jul 16-Sep 17
Net Trade % Points GDP Growth	Points
USA	IIIQ2017 0.41 IIQ2017 0.21 IQ2017 0.22 IVQ2016 -1.61 IIIQ2016 0.36 IIQ2016 0.28 IQ2016 -0.28 IVQ2015 -0.28 IIIQ2015 -0.77 IIQ2015 -0.03 IQ2015 -1.64 IVQ2014 -1.02 IIIQ2014 0.28 IIQ2014 -0.40 IQ2014 -1.14 IVQ2013 1.29 IIIQ2013 0.13 IIQ2013 -0.21 IQ2013 0.30 IVQ2012 +0.58 IIIQ2012 0.16 IIQ2012 0.28 IQ2012 -0.02
Japan	0.7 IQ2012 -2.0 IIQ2012 -1.9 IIIQ2012 -0.3 IVQ2012 1.4 IQ2013 -0.1 IIQ2013 -1.3 IIIQ2013 -2.2 IVQ2013 -0.8 IQ2014 4.0 IIQ2014 -0.2 IIIQ2014 1.5 IVQ2014 0.0 IQ2015 -0.5 IIQ2015 -0.3 IIIQ2015 0.0 IVQ2015 1.4 IQ2016 0.2 IIQ2016 1.6 IIIQ2016 1.3 IVQ2016 0.5 IQ2017 -1.2 IIQ2017
Germany	IQ2012 0.8 IIQ2012 0.4 IIIQ2012 0.3 IVQ2012 -0.5 IQ2013 -0.3 IIQ2013 0.1 IIIQ2013 -0.5 IVQ2013 0.5 IQ2014 0.0 IIQ2014 0.2 IIIQ2014 0.5 IVQ2014 -0.3 IQ2015 -0.1 IIQ2015 0.6 IIIQ2015 -0.5 IVQ2015 -0.6 IQ2016 -0.2 IIQ2016 0.7 IIIQ2016 -0.4 IVQ2016 -0.4 IQ2017 0.6 IIQ2017 -0.3
France	0.1 IIIQ2012 0.1 IVQ2012 -0.1 IQ2013 0.3 IIQ2013 -1.7 IIIQ2013 0.1 IVQ2013 -0.1 IQ2014 -0.2 IIQ2014 -0.2 IIIQ2014 0.2 IVQ2014 -0.2 IQ2015 0.4 IIQ2015 -0.6 IIIQ2015 -0.7 IVQ2015 -0.1 IQ2016 0.3 IIQ2016 -0.6 IIIQ2016 0.1 IVQ2016 -0.6 IQ2017 0.6 IIQ2017 -0.6 IIIQ2017
UK	0.7 IIQ2013 -1.7 IIIQ2013 0.1 IVQ2013 0.8 IQ2014 0.3 IIQ2014 -0.7 IIIQ2014 0.0 IVQ2014 -0.4 IQ2015 1.1 IIQ2015 -0.5 IIIQ2015 -0.4 IVQ2015 -0.7 IQ2016 0.4 IIQ2016 -1.4 IIIQ2016 1.7 IVQ2016 -0.4 IQ2017 0.4 IIQ2017

Sources: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/

The geographical breakdown of exports and imports of Japan with selected regions and countries is in Table V-5 for Sep 2017. The share of Asia in Japan’s trade is close to one-half for 54.4 percent of exports and 50.3 percent of imports. Within Asia, exports to China are 18.9 percent of total exports and imports from China 25.5 percent of total imports. While exports of Japan to China increased 29.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2017, imports from China increased 1.6 percent. The largest export market for Japan in Sep 2017 is the US with share of 19.0 percent of total exports, which is close to that of China, and share of imports from the US of 11.1 percent in total imports. Japan’s exports to the US increased 11.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2017 and imports from the US increased 17.2 percent. Western Europe has share of 11.8 percent in Japan’s exports and of 13.2 percent in imports. Rates of growth of exports of Japan in Sep 2017 are 11.1 percent for exports to the US, 49.6 percent for exports to Brazil and 18.3 percent for exports to Germany. Comparisons relative to 2011 may have some bias because of the effects of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Deceleration of growth in China and the US and threat of recession in Europe can reduce world trade and economic activity. Growth rates of imports in the 12 months ending in Sep 2017 are mixed. Imports from Asia increased 7.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2017 while imports from China increased 1.6 percent. Data are in millions of yen, which may have effects of recent depreciation of the yen relative to the United States dollar (USD) and revaluation of the dollar relative to the euro.

Table V-5, Japan, Value and 12-Month Percentage Changes of Exports and Imports by Regions and Countries, ∆% and Millions of Yen

Sep 2017	Exports Millions Yen	12 months ∆%	Imports Millions Yen	12 months ∆%
Total	6,811,003	14.1	6,140,833	12.0
Asia	3,704,880 % Total 54.4	18.7	3,085,997 % Total 50.3	7.7
China	1,284,044 % Total 18.9	29.3	1,565,840 % Total 25.5	1.6
USA	1,297,368 % Total 19.0	11.1	680,790 % Total 11.1	17.2
Canada	85,588	-3.1	106,613	29.2
Brazil	35,424	49.6	75,333	44.2
Mexico	108,348	2.6	45,158	-4.9
Western Europe	802,594 % Total 11.8	14.6	808,969 % Total 13.2	16.8
Germany	193,014	18.3	242,370	17.1
France	61,461	14.3	107,405	6.4
UK	142,005	1.4	67,094	38.9
Middle East	214,189	-12.5	589,875	14.9
Australia	173,797	24.5	327,982	16.3

Source: Japan, Ministry of Finance http://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/info/index_e.htm

World trade projections of the IMF are in Table V-6. There is decreasing growth of the volume of world trade of goods and services from 4.2 percent in 2017 to 4.0 percent in 2018, stabilizing to 4.0 percent in 2019. Growth stabilizes at 4.0 percent on average from 2017 to 2022. World trade would be slower for advanced economies while emerging and developing economies (EMDE) experience faster growth. World economic slowdown would be more challenging with lower growth of world trade.

Table V-6, IMF, Projections of World Trade, USD Billions, USD/Barrel and Annual ∆%

	2017	2018	2019	Average ∆% 2017-2022
World Trade Volume (Goods and Services)	4.2	4.0	4.0	4.0
Exports Goods & Services	4.2	3.9	3.7	3.9
Imports Goods & Services	4.2	4.2	4.1	4.1
Exports Goods & Services
G7	3.8	3.3	3.3	3.4
EMDE	4.8	4.5	4.3	4.5
Imports Goods & Services
G7	4.0	3.5	3.5	3.4
EMDE	4.4	4.9	4.9	4.9
Terms of Trade Goods & Services
G7	-0.8	0.4	-0.1	-0.1
EMDE	0.1	-0.5	0.0	0.0
World Crude Oil Price $/Barrel	50.28	50.17	50.51	51.15

Crude Oil: Simple Average of three spot prices: Dated Brent, West Texas Intermediate and the Dubai Fateh

Source: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook databank

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2017/02/weodata/index.aspx

The JP Morgan Global All-Industry Output Index of the JP Morgan Manufacturing and Services PMI^™, produced by JP Morgan and HIS Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM, with high association with world GDP, increased to 54.0 in Oct from 53.9 in Sep, indicating expansion at faster rate (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4ec7b65ea5764823921c5f2fc0c0797b). This index has remained above the contraction territory of 50.0 during 61 consecutive months. The employment index increased from 52.5 in Sep to 52.7 in Oct with input prices rising at slower rate, new orders increasing at slower rate and output changing at faster rate (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4ec7b65ea5764823921c5f2fc0c0797b). David Hensley, Director of Global Economic Coordination at JP Morgan, finds consistent growth with recent improvement (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4ec7b65ea5764823921c5f2fc0c0797b). The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI^™, produced by JP Morgan and IHS Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM, increased to 53.5 in Oct from 53.3 in Sep (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/6087b2d52aed4683a1b2ed6c202b0fc3). New export orders increased. David Hensley, Director of Global Economic Coordination at JP Morgan, finds consistent growth (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/6087b2d52aed4683a1b2ed6c202b0fc3). The Markit Brazil Composite Output Index decreased from 51.1 in Sep to 49.5 in Oct, indicating contraction in activity of Brazil’s private sector (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/82e2e418c25d4976983f69e38ca9e19f). The Markit Brazil Services Business Activity index, compiled by Markit, decreased from 50.7 in Sep to 48.8 in Oct indicating contraction of services activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/82e2e418c25d4976983f69e38ca9e19f). Pollyanna de Lima, Principal Economist at Markit, finds deteriorating activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/82e2e418c25d4976983f69e38ca9e19f). The HIS Markit Brazil Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^TM (PMI^™) increased from 50.9 in Sep to 51.2 in Oct, indicating manufacturing above neutral 50.0 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/9b27a1e683534730a223052d853e1eb0). Pollyanna De Lima, Economist at IHS Markit, finds improving direction in manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/9b27a1e683534730a223052d853e1eb0).

VA United States. The HIS Markit Flash US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) seasonally adjusted increased to 54.5 in Oct from 53.1 in Sep (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/3ea2eb06456d4fc887373f024fb60a6c). New export orders increased. The HIS Markit Flash US Services PMI™ Business Activity Index increased from 55.3 in Sep to 55.9 in Oct (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/3ea2eb06456d4fc887373f024fb60a6c). The IHS Markit Flash US Composite PMI™ Output Index increased from 54.8 in Sep to 55.7 in Oct (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/3ea2eb06456d4fc887373f024fb60a6c). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds that the surveys are consistent with increase in the first month of IVQ2017 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/3ea2eb06456d4fc887373f024fb60a6c). The HIS Markit US Composite PMI™ Output Index of Manufacturing and Services increased to 55.2 in Oct from 54.8 in Sep (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/30bd60bad3dd49b2907b36ec4c4c44d4). The HIS Markit US Services PMI™ Business Activity Index did not change from 55.3 in Sep to 55.3 in Oct (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/30bd60bad3dd49b2907b36ec4c4c44d4). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds the indexes suggesting growth at 3.0 percent in IVQ2017 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/30bd60bad3dd49b2907b36ec4c4c44d4). The HIS Markit US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) increased to 54.6 in Oct from 53.1 in Sep (). New foreign orders increased. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at HIS Markit, finds improving manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b8d30f2c72f4465b983e66276e7a7ff9). The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Report on Business^® decreased 2.1-percentage points from 60.8 in Sep to 58.7 in Oct, which indicates slower growth (https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm?SSO=1). The index of new export orders decreased 0.5 percentage points from 57.0 in Sep to 56.5 in Oct. The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report on Business^® PMI increased 0.3 percentage points from 59.8 in Sep to 60.1 in Oct, indicating growth of business activity/production during 99 consecutive months, while the index of new orders decreased 0.2 percentage points from 63.0 in Sep to 62.8 in Oct (https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm?SSO=1). Table USA provides the country economic indicators for the US.

Table USA, US Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index	Sep 12 months NSA ∆%: 2.2; ex food and energy ∆%: 1.7 Sep month SA ∆%: 0.5; ex food and energy ∆%: 0.1 Blog 10/22/17
Producer Price Index	Finished Goods Sep 12-month NSA ∆%: 3.3; ex food and energy ∆% 1.7 Sep month SA ∆% 0.8; ex food and energy ∆%: 0.2 Final Demand Sep 12-month NSA ∆%: 2.6; ex food and energy ∆% 2.2 Sep month SA ∆% 0.4; ex food and energy ∆%: 0.4 Blog 10/22/17
PCE Inflation	Sep 12-month NSA ∆%: headline 1.6; ex food and energy ∆% 1.3 Blog 11/5/17
Employment Situation	Household Survey: Oct Unemployment Rate SA 4.1% Blog calculation People in Job Stress Oct: 21.2 million NSA, 12.5% of Labor Force Establishment Survey: Oct Nonfarm Jobs 261.000; Private 252,000 jobs created Sep 12-month Average Hourly Earnings Inflation Adjusted ∆%: 0.7 Blog 11/5/17
Nonfarm Hiring	Nonfarm Hiring fell from 63.5 million in 2006 to 58.7 million in 2014 or by 4.8 million and to 62.7 million in 2016 or by 0.8 million Private-Sector Hiring Sep 2017 4/928 million higher by 0.5 percent than 4.902 million in Sep 2006 while population grew 26.142 million or 11.4 percent Blog 11/12/17
GDP Growth	BEA Revised National Income Accounts IQ2012/IQ2011 ∆%: 2.8 IIQ2012/IIQ2011 2.5 IIIQ2012/IIIQ2011 2.4 IVQ2012/IVQ2011 1.3 IQ2013/IQ2012 1.3 IIQ2013/IIQ2012 1.0 IIIQ2013/IIIQ2012 1.7 IVQ2013/IVQ2012 2.7 IQ2014/IQ2013 1.7 IIQ2014/IIQ2013 2.7 IIIQ2014/IIIQ2013 3.2 IVQ2014/IVQ2013 2.7 IQ2015/IQ2014 3.8 IIQ2015/IIQ2014 3.3 IIIQ2015/IIIQ2014 2.4 IVQ2015/IVQ2014 2.0 IQ2016/IQ2015 1.4 IIQ2016/IIQ2015 1.2 IIIQ2016/IIIQ2015 1.5 IVQ2016/IVQ2015 1.8 IQ2017/IQ2016 2.0 IIQ2017/IIQ2016 2.2 IIIQ2017/IIIQ2016 2.3 IQ2012 SAAR 2.7 IIQ2012 SAAR 1.9 IIIQ2012 SAAR 0.5 IVQ2012 SAAR 0.1 IQ2013 SAAR 2.8 IIQ2013 SAAR 0.8 IIIQ2013 SAAR 3.1 IVQ2013 SAAR 4.0 IQ2014 SAAR -0.9 IIQ2014 SAAR 4.6 IIIQ2014 SAAR 5.2 IVQ2014 SAAR 2.0 IQ2015 SAAR 3.2 IIQ2015 SAAR: 2.7 IIIQ2015 SAAR: 1.6 IVQ2015 SAAR: 0.5 IQ2016 SAAR: 0.6 IIQ2016 SAAR: 2.2 IIIQ2016 SAAR: 2.8 IVQ2016 SAAR 1.8 IQ2017 SAAR 1.2 IIQ2017 SAAR 3.1 IIIQ2017 SAAR 3.0 Blog 10/29/17
Real Private Fixed Investment	SAAR IIIQ2017 ∆% 1.5 IVQ2007 to IIIQ2017: 12.5% Blog 10/29/17
Corporate Profits	IIQ2017 SAAR: Corporate Profits 0.7; Undistributed Profits -0.8 Blog 10/1/17
Personal Income and Consumption	Sep month ∆% SA Real Disposable Personal Income (RDPI) SA ∆% 0.0 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (RPCE): 0.6 12-month Sep NSA ∆%: RDPI: 1.2; RPCE ∆%: 2.7 Blog 11/5/17
Quarterly Services Report	IQ17/IQ16 NSA ∆%: Information 4.2 Financial & Insurance 7.3 Earlier Data: Blog 3/22/15
Employment Cost Index	Compensation Private IIIQ2017 SA ∆%: 0.8 Sep 12 months ∆%: 2.5 Earlier Data: Blog 2/1/15
Industrial Production	Sep month SA ∆%: 0.3 Sep 12 months SA ∆%: 1.6 Manufacturing Sep SA 0.1 ∆% Sep 12 months SA ∆% 1.0, NSA 1.0 Capacity Utilization: 76.0 Blog 10/22/17
Productivity and Costs	Nonfarm Business Productivity IIQ2017∆% SAAE 1.5; IIQ2017/IIQ2016 ∆% 1.3; Unit Labor Costs SAAE IIQ2017 ∆% 0.2; IIQ2017/IIQ2016 ∆%: -0.2 Blog 9/10/17
New York Fed Manufacturing Index	General Business Conditions from Sep 24.4 to Oct 30.2 New Orders: From Sep 24.9 to Oct 18.0 Blog 10/22/17
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index	General Index from Sep 23.8 to Oct 27.9 New Orders from Sep 29.5 to Oct 19.6 Blog 10/22/17
Manufacturing Shipments and Orders	Sep Orders SA ∆% 1.4 Ex Transport 0.7 Jan-Sep 17/Jan-Sep 16 NSA New Orders ∆% 5.6 Ex transport 5.8 Earlier data: Blog 4/5/15
Durable Goods	Sep New Orders SA ∆%: 2.2; ex transport ∆%: 0.7 Jan-Sep 17/Jan-Sep 16 New Orders NSA ∆%: 5.2; ex transport ∆% 5.5 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15
Sales of New Motor Vehicles	Jan-Oct 2017 14,229,448; Jan-Oct 2016 14,479,407. Oct 17 SAAR 18.09 million, Sep 17 SAAR 18.57 million, Oct 2016 SAAR 17.87 million Blog 11/5/17
Sales of Merchant Wholesalers	Jan-Sep 2017/Jan-Sep 2016 NSA ∆%: Total 7.1; Durable Goods: 7.1; Nondurable Goods: 7.1 EARLIER DATA: Blog 4/12/15
Sales and Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers	Aug 17 12-M NSA ∆%: Sales Total Business 5.7; Manufacturers 5.6 Retailers 4.0; Merchant Wholesalers 7.5 Blog 10/15/17
Sales for Retail and Food Services	Jan-Sep 2017/Jan-Sep 2016 ∆%: Retail and Food Services 3.8; Retail ∆% 4.0 Blog 10/15/17
Value of Construction Put in Place	SAAR month SA Aug ∆%: 0.5 Jan-Aug 17/Jan-Aug 16 NSA: 4.7 Earlier Data: Blog 4/5/15
Case-Shiller Home Prices	Aug 2017/Aug 2016 ∆% NSA: 10 Cities 5.2; 20 Cities: 5.3; National: 6.1 ∆% Aug SA: 10 Cities 0.5; 20 Cities: 0.5 Blog 11/5/17
FHFA House Price Index Purchases Only	Aug SA ∆% 0.7; 12-month NSA ∆%: 6.6 Blog 10/29/17
New House Sales	Sep 2017 month SAAR ∆%: 18.9 Jan-Sep 2017/Jan-Sep 2016 NSA ∆%: 8.5 Blog 10/29/17
Housing Starts and Permits	Aug Starts month SA ∆% minus 0.8; Permits ∆%: 5.7 Jan-Aug 2017/Jan-Aug 2016 NSA ∆% Starts 2.7; Permits ∆% 7.5 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Rate of Homeownership	IIQ2017: 63.7 Blog 7/30/17
Trade Balance	Balance Sep SA -$43,495 million versus Aug -$42,765 million Exports Sep SA ∆%: 1.1 Imports Sep SA ∆%: 1.2 Goods Exports Jan-Sep 2017/Jan-Sep 2016 NSA ∆%: 6.2 Goods Imports Jan-Sep 2017/Jan-Sep 2016 NSA ∆%: 6.4 Blog 11/12/17
Export and Import Prices	Sep 12-month NSA ∆%: Imports 2.7; Exports 2.9 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Consumer Credit	Sep ∆% annual rate: Total 6.6; Revolving 7.7; Nonrevolving 6.3 Earlier Data: Blog 5/10/15
Net Foreign Purchases of Long-term Treasury Securities	Aug Net Foreign Purchases of Long-term US Securities: $55.1 billion Major Holders of Treasury Securities: China $1200.5 billion; Japan $1101.7billion; Total Foreign US Treasury Holdings Jun $6269.7 billion Blog 10/29/17
Treasury Budget	Fiscal Year 2017/2016 ∆% Sep: Receipts 1.5; Outlays 3.3; Individual Income Taxes 2.7 Deficit Fiscal Year 2011 $1,300 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2012 $1,087 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2013 $680 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2014 $485 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2015 $439 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2016 $586 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2017 $666 billion Blog 10/29/2017
CBO Budget and Economic Outlook	2012 Deficit $1087 B 6.8% GDP Debt $11,281 B 70.4% GDP 2013 Deficit $680 B, 4.1% GDP Debt $11,983 B 72.6% GDP 2014 Deficit $485 B 2.8% GDP Debt $12,780 B 74.2% GDP 2015 Deficit $438 B 2.5% GDP Debt $13,117 B 73.3% GDP 2016 Deficit $587 3.2% GDP Debt $14,168.4 B 77.0% GDP 2027 Deficit $1,408 B, 5.0 % GDP Debt $24,893 B 88.9% GDP 2047: Long-term Debt/GDP 150.0% Blog 8/26/12 11/18/12 2/10/13 9/22/13 2/16/14 8/24/14 9/14/14 3/1/15 6/21/15 1/3/16 4/10/16 7/24/16 1/8/17 4/2/17
Commercial Banks Assets and Liabilities	Sep 2017 SAAR ∆%: Securities 0.2 Loans 4.2 Cash Assets -9.9 Deposits 2.5 Blog 10/29/17
Flow of Funds Net Worth of Families and Nonprofits	IIQ2017 ∆ since 2007 Assets +$30,239.6 BN Nonfinancial $5,045.1 BN Real estate $3,834.9 BN Financial +25,194.0 BN Net Worth +$29,457.4 BN Blog 10/1/17
Current Account Balance of Payments	IIQ2017 -133,954 MM % GDP 2.6 Blog 9/24/17 10/15/17
Collapse of United States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation	Blog 11/12/17
Squeeze of Economic Activity by Carry Trades	Blog 10/22/17
IMF View	World Real Economic Growth 2017 ∆% 3.6 Blog 10/29/17
Income, Poverty and Health Insurance in the United States	43.123 Million Below Poverty in 2015, 13.5% of Population Median Family Income CPI-2015 Adjusted $56,516 in 2015 back to 1999 Levels Uncovered by Health Insurance 28.966 Million in 2015 Blog 9/25/16
Monetary Policy and Cyclical Valuation of Risk Financial Assets	Blog 1/15/2017
Rules versus Discretionary Authorities in Monetary Policy	Blog 1/1/2017

Links to blog comments in Table USA: 11/5/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/11/unchanged-fomc-policy-rate-gradual.html

10/29/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/dollar-revaluation-and-increase-of.html

10/22/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/world-inflation-waves-long-term-and.html

10/15/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

10/8/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

10/1/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/destruction-of-household-nonfinancial.html

9/24/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/monetary-policy-of-reducing-central.html

9/17/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/dollar-devaluation-world-inflation.html

9/10/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

9/3/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

8/27/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/dollar-devaluation-and-interest-rate.html

8/20/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

8/13/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million_40.html

8/6/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/data-dependent-monetary-policy-with.html

7/30/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/data-dependent-monetary-policy-with_30.html

4/30/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/04/dollar-devaluation-mediocre-cyclical.html

4/2/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/04/mediocre-cyclical-economic-growth-with.html

1/15/17 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/unconventional-monetary-policy-and.html

1/1/17 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/rules-versus-discretionary-authorities.html

12/25/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

10/16/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/10/imf-view-of-world-economy-and-finance.html

9/25/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/the-economic-outlook-is-inherently.html

7/24/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/unresolved-us-balance-of-payments.html

4/10/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/04/proceeding-cautiously-in-reducing.html

1/17/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/unconventional-monetary-policy-and.html

1/3/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/weakening-equities-and-dollar.html

10/11/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/10/interest-rate-policy-uncertainty-imf.html

6/21/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/fluctuating-financial-asset-valuations.html

5/10/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/quite-high-equity-valuations-and.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html

9/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitics-monetary-policy-and.html

8/24/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/monetary-policy-world-inflation-waves.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

9/22/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

2/10/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/united-states-unsustainable-fiscal.html

VB Japan. The GDP of Japan grew at 1.0 percent per year on average from 1991 to 2002, with the GDP implicit deflator falling at 0.8 percent per year on average. The average growth rate of Japan’s GDP was 4 percent per year on average from the middle of the 1970s to 1992 (Ito 2004). Low growth in Japan in the 1990s is commonly labeled as “the lost decade” (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 81-115). Table VB-GDP provides yearly growth rates of Japan’s GDP from 1995 to 2016. Growth weakened from 2.7 per cent in 1995 and 3.1 percent in 1996 to contractions of 1.1 percent in 1998 and 0.3 percent in 1999. Growth rates were below 2 percent with exception of 2.8 percent in 2000 and 2.2 percent in 2004. Japan’s GDP contracted sharply by 1.1 percent in 2008 and 5.4 percent in 2009. As in most advanced economies, growth was robust at 4.2 percent in 2010 but mediocre at minus 0.1 percent in 2011 because of the tsunami and 1.5 percent in 2012. Japan’s GDP grew 2.0 percent in 2013 and nearly stagnated in 2014 at 0.3. The GDP of Japan increased 1.1 percent in 2015 and 1.0 percent in 2016. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). Japan’s real GDP in calendar year 2016 is 3.3 percent higher than in calendar year 2007. Japan’s real GDP grew 10.4 percent from the trough of 2009 to 2016 at the average yearly rate of 1.4 percent (http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html).

Table VB-GDP, Japan, Yearly Percentage Change of GDP ∆%

Calendar Year	∆%
1995	2.7
1996	3.1
1997	1.1
1998	-1.1
1999	-0.3
2000	2.8
2001	0.4
2002	0.1
2003	1.5
2004	2.2
2005	1.7
2006	1.4
2007	1.7
2008	-1.1
2009	-5.4
2010	4.2
2011	-0.1
2012	1.5
2013	2.0
2014	0.3
2015	1.1
2016	1.0

Source: Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html

Table VB-BOJF provides the forecasts of economic activity and inflation in Japan by the majority of members of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, which is part of their Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf) with changes on Jul 21, 2015 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k150121a.pdf). For fiscal 2015, the forecast is of growth of GDP between 1.5 to 2.1 percent, with the all items CPI less fresh food 0.2 to 1.2 to 3.3 percent (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf). The critical difference is forecast of the CPI excluding fresh food of 0.2 to 1.2 percent in 2015 and 1.2 to 2.2 percent in 2016 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf). Consumer price inflation in Japan excluding fresh food was minus 0.4 percent in Mar 2014 and 2.2 percent in 12 months (http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1581.htm), significantly because of the increase of the tax on value added of consumption in Apr 2014. The new monetary policy of the Bank of Japan aims to increase inflation to 2 percent. These forecasts are biannual in Apr and Oct. The Cabinet Office, Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan released on Jan 22, 2013, a “Joint Statement of the Government and the Bank of Japan on Overcoming Deflation and Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130122c.pdf) with the important change of increasing the inflation target of monetary policy from 1 percent to 2 percent:

“The Bank of Japan conducts monetary policy based on the principle that the policy shall be aimed at achieving price stability, thereby contributing to the sound development of the national economy, and is responsible for maintaining financial system stability. The Bank aims to achieve price stability on a sustainable basis, given that there are various factors that affect prices in the short run.

The Bank recognizes that the inflation rate consistent with price stability on a sustainable basis will rise as efforts by a wide range of entities toward strengthening competitiveness and growth potential of Japan's economy make progress. Based on this recognition, the Bank sets the price stability target at 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index.

Under the price stability target specified above, the Bank will pursue monetary easing and aim to achieve this target at the earliest possible time. Taking into consideration that it will take considerable time before the effects of monetary policy permeate the economy, the Bank will ascertain whether there is any significant risk to the sustainability of economic growth, including from the accumulation of financial imbalances.”

The Bank of Japan also provided explicit analysis of its view on price stability in a “Background note regarding the Bank’s thinking on price stability” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/data/rel130123a1.pdf http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130123a.htm/). The Bank of Japan also amended “Principal terms and conditions for the Asset Purchase Program” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130122a.pdf): “Asset purchases and loan provision shall be conducted up to the maximum outstanding amounts by the end of 2013. From January 2014, the Bank shall purchase financial assets and provide loans every month, the amount of which shall be determined pursuant to the relevant rules of the Bank.”

Financial markets in Japan and worldwide were shocked by new bold measures of “quantitative and qualitative monetary easing” by the Bank of Japan (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The objective of policy is to “achieve the price stability target of 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) at the earliest possible time, with a time horizon of about two years” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The main elements of the new policy are as follows:

Monetary Base Control. Most central banks in the world pursue interest rates instead of monetary aggregates, injecting bank reserves to lower interest rates to desired levels. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has shifted back to monetary aggregates, conducting money market operations with the objective of increasing base money, or monetary liabilities of the government, at the annual rate of 60 to 70 trillion yen. The BOJ estimates base money outstanding at “138 trillion yen at end-2012) and plans to increase it to “200 trillion yen at end-2012 and 270 trillion yen at end 2014” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
Maturity Extension of Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds. Purchases of bonds will be extended even up to bonds with maturity of 40 years with the guideline of extending the average maturity of BOJ bond purchases from three to seven years. The BOJ estimates the current average maturity of Japanese government bonds (JGB) at around seven years. The BOJ plans to purchase about 7.5 trillion yen per month (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130404d.pdf). Takashi Nakamichi, Tatsuo Ito and Phred Dvorak, wiring on “Bank of Japan mounts bid for revival,” on Apr 4, 2013, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323646604578401633067110420.html), find that the limit of maturities of three years on purchases of JGBs was designed to avoid views that the BOJ would finance uncontrolled government deficits.
Seigniorage. The BOJ is pursuing coordination with the government that will take measures to establish “sustainable fiscal structure with a view to ensuring the credibility of fiscal management” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
Diversification of Asset Purchases. The BOJ will engage in transactions of exchange traded funds (ETF) and real estate investment trusts (REITS) and not solely on purchases of JGBs. Purchases of ETFs will be at an annual rate of increase of one trillion yen and purchases of REITS at 30 billion yen.
Bank Lending Facility and Growth Supporting Funding Facility. At the meeting on Feb 18, the Bank of Japan doubled the scale of these lending facilities to prevent their expiration in the near future (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140218a.pdf).

Table VB-BOJF provides the forecasts of economic activity and inflation in Japan by the majority of members of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, which is part of their Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1701b.pdf) with changes on Feb 1, 2017 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1604b.pdf). On Jun 19, 2015, the Bank of Japan announced a “New Framework for Monetary Policy Meetings,” which provides for quarterly release of the forecasts of the economy and prices beginning in Jan 2016 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/rel150619a.pdf). For fiscal 2015, the forecast is of growth of GDP between 0.7 to 0.7 percent, with the all items CPI less fresh food of 0.0 percent (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1604b.pdf). The critical difference is forecast of the CPI excluding fresh food of 0.0 to 0.2 percent in 2016 and 1.8 to 3.0 percent in 2017 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1604b.pdf). Consumer price inflation in Japan excluding fresh food was 0.1 percent in Mar 2016 and minus 0.3 percent in 12 months (http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1581.htm). The CPI increased significantly because of the increase of the tax on value added of consumption in Apr 2014. The new monetary policy of the Bank of Japan aims to increase inflation to 2 percent. These forecasts are biannual in Apr and Oct. The Cabinet Office, Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan released on Jan 22, 2013, a “Joint Statement of the Government and the Bank of Japan on Overcoming Deflation and Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130122c.pdf) with the important change of increasing the inflation target of monetary policy from 1 percent to 2 percent:

Monetary Base Control. Most central banks in the world pursue interest rates instead of monetary aggregates, injecting bank reserves to lower interest rates to desired levels. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has shifted back to monetary aggregates, conducting money market operations with the objective of increasing base money, or monetary liabilities of the government, at the annual rate of 60 to 70 trillion yen. The BOJ estimates base money outstanding at “138 trillion yen at end-2012) and plans to increase it to “200 trillion yen at end-2012 and 270 trillion yen at end 2014” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
Maturity Extension of Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds. Purchases of bonds will be extended even up to bonds with maturity of 40 years with the guideline of extending the average maturity of BOJ bond purchases from three to seven years. The BOJ estimates the current average maturity of Japanese government bonds (JGB) at around seven years. The BOJ plans to purchase about 7.5 trillion yen per month (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130404d.pdf). Takashi Nakamichi, Tatsuo Ito and Phred Dvorak, wiring on “Bank of Japan mounts bid for revival,” on Apr 4, 2013, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323646604578401633067110420.html), find that the limit of maturities of three years on purchases of JGBs was designed to avoid views that the BOJ would finance uncontrolled government deficits.
Seigniorage. The BOJ is pursuing coordination with the government that will take measures to establish “sustainable fiscal structure with a view to ensuring the credibility of fiscal management” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
Diversification of Asset Purchases. The BOJ will engage in transactions of exchange traded funds (ETF) and real estate investment trusts (REITS) and not solely on purchases of JGBs. Purchases of ETFs will be at an annual rate of increase of one trillion yen and purchases of REITS at 30 billion yen.
Bank Lending Facility and Growth Supporting Funding Facility. At the meeting on Feb 18, the Bank of Japan doubled the scale of these lending facilities to prevent their expiration in the near future (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140218a.pdf).
Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Negative Nominal Interest Rate. On January 29, 2016, the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan introduced a new policy to attain the “price stability target of 2 percent at the earliest possible time” (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2016/k160129a.pdf). The new framework consists of three dimensions: quantity, quality and interest rate. The interest rate dimension consists of rates paid to current accounts that financial institutions hold at the Bank of Japan of three tiers zero, positive and minus 0.1 percent. The quantitative dimension consists of increasing the monetary base at the annual rate of 80 trillion yen. The qualitative dimension consists of purchases by the Bank of Japan of Japanese government bonds (JGBs), exchange traded funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITS).
Quantitative and Qualitative Easing with Yield Curve Control. The Bank of Japan introduced a new approach, QQE with Yield Curve Control (“Quantitative and Qualitative Easing with Yield Curve Control”) at its policy meeting on Sep 21, 2016 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2016/k160921a.pdf). The policy consists of two measures. First “yield curve control” consists of controlling the long-term and short-term interest rates. The bank will fix the interest rates of policy balances held by financial institutions at the BOJ at minus 0.1 percent and will purchase Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) in the amount required to maintain the yield of the 10-year JGB at around zero percent. Second, “the inflation-overshooting commitment” consists of increasing base money to maintain the CPI price stability target above 2 percent.

Table VB-BOJF, Bank of Japan, Forecasts of the Majority of Members of the Policy Board, % Year on Year

Fiscal Year Date of Forecast	Real GDP	CPI All Items Less Fresh Food	Excluding Effects of Consumption Tax Hikes
2013
Apr 2014	+2.2 to +2.3 [+2.2]	+0.8
Jan 2014	+2.5 to +2.9 [+2.7]	+0.7 to +0.9 [+0.7]
Oct 2013	+2.6 to +3.0 [+2.7]	+0.6 to +1.0 [+0.7]
Jul 2013	+2.5 to +3.0 [+2.8]	+0.5 to +0.8 [+0.6]
2014
Apr 2015	-1.0 to -0.8 [-0.9]	+2.8	+0.8
Jan 2015	-0.6 to -0.4 [-0.5]	+2.9 to +3.2 [+2.9]	+0.9 to +1.2 [+0.9]
Oct 2014	+0.2 to +0.7 [+0.5]	+3.1 to +3.4 [+3.2]	+1.1 to +1.4 [+1.2]
Jul 2014	+0.6 to +1.3 [+1.0]	+3.2 to +3.5 [+3.3]	+1.2 to +1.5 [+1.3]
Apr 2014	+0.8 to +1.3 [+1.1]	+3.0 to +3.5 [+3.3]	+1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3]
Jan 2014	+0.9 to 1.5 [+1.4]	+2.9 to +3.6 [+3.3]	+0.9 to +1.6 [+1.3]
Oct 2013	+0.9 to +1.5 [+1.5]	+2.8 to +3.6 [+3.3]	+0.8 to +1.6 [+1.3]
Jul 2013	+0.8 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+2.7 to +3.6 [+3.3]	+0.7 to +1.6 [+1.3]
2015
Feb 2016	+0.7 to +0.7 [+0.7]	0.0
Jan 2016	+1.0 to +1.3 [+1.1]	0.0 to 0.2 [+0.1]
Oct 2015	+0.8 to +1.4 [+1.2]	0.0 to +0.4 [+0.1
Jul 2015	+1.5 to +1.9 [+1.7]	+0.3 to +1.0 [+0.7]
Apr 2015	+1.5 to +2.1 [+2.0]	+0.2 to 1.2 [+0.8]	+0.2 to 1.2 [+0.8]
Jan 2015	+1.8 to +2.3 [+2.1]	+0.4 to +1.3 [+1.0]	+0.4 to +1.3 [+1.0]
Oct 2014	+1.2 to +1.7 [+1.5]	+1.8 to 2.6 [+2.4]	+1.1 to +1.9 [+1.7]
Jul 2014	+1.2 to +1.6 [+1.5]	+1.9 to +2.8 [+2.6]	+1.2 to +2.1 [+1.9]
Apr 2014	+1.2 to +1.5 [+1.5]	+1.9 to +2.8 [+2.6]	+1.2 to +2.1 [+1.9]
Jan 2014	+1.2 to +1.8 [+1.5]	+1.7 to +2.9 [+2.6]	+1.0 to +2.2 [+1.9]
Oct 2013	+1.3 to +1.8 [+1.5]	+1.6 to +2.9 [+2.6]	+0.9 to +2.2 [+1.9]
Jul 2013	+1.3 to +1.9 [+1.5]	+1.6 to +2.9 [+2.6]	+0.9 to +2.2 [+1.9]
2016
Apr 2017	+1.4 to +1.4 [+1.4]	-0.3
Feb 2017	+1.2 to +1.5 [+1.4]	-0.2 to -0.1 [-0.2]
Jul 2016	+0.8 to +1.0 [+1.0]	0.0 to +0.3 [0.5]	0.0 to +0.3 [0.5]
Apr 2016	+0.8 to +1.4 [+1.2]	0.0 to +0.8 [+0.5]	0.0 to +0.8 [+0.5]
Jan 2016	+1.0 to +1.7 [+1.5]	0.2 to +1.2 [+0.8]
Oct 2015	+1.2 to +1.6 [+1.4]	+0.8 to +1.5 [+1.4]
Jul 2015	+1.5 to 1.7 [+1.5]	+1.2 to +2.1 [+1.9]
Apr 2015	+1.4 to +1.8 [+1.5]	+1.2 to +2.2 [+2.0]	+1.2 to +2.2 [+2.0]
Jan 2015	+1.5 to +1.7 [+1.6]	+1.5 to +2.3 [+2.2]	+1.5 to +2.3 [+2.2]
Oct 2014	+1.0 to +1.4 [+1.2]	+1.9 to 3.0 [+2.8]	+1.2 to 2.3 [+2.1]
Jul 2014	+1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+2.0 to +3.0 [+2.8]	+1.3 to +2.3 [+2.1]
Apr 2014	+1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+2.0 to +3.0 [+2.8]	+1.3 to +2.3 [+2.1]
2017
Apr 2017	+1.4 to +1.6 [+1.6]	+0.6 to +1.6 [+1.4]
Feb 2017	+1.3 to +1.6 [+1.5]	+0.8 to +1.6 [+1.5]
Jul 2016	1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+0.8 to +1.8 [+1.7]	+0.8 to +1.8 [+1.7]
Apr 2016	0.0 to + +0.3 [+0.1]	1.8 to +3.0 [+2.7]	0.8 to +2.0 [+1.7
Jan 2016	+0.1 to + 0.5 [+0.3]	+2.0 to +3.1 [+2.8]	+ 1.0 to +2.1 [+1.8]
Oct 2015	+0.1 to +0.5 [+0.3]	+2.5 to +3.4 [+3.1]	+1.2 to 2.1 [+1.8]
Jul 2015	+0.1 to +0.5 [+0.2]	+2.7 to +3.4 [+3.1]	+1.4 to +2.1 [+1.8]
Apr 2015	+0.1 to +0.5 [+0.2]	+2.7 to +3.4 [+3.2]	+1.4 to +2.1 [+1.9]
2018
Apr 2017	+1.1 to +1.3 [+1.3]	+0.8 to +1.9 [+1.7]
Feb 2017	+1.0 to +1.2 [+1.1]	+0.9 to +1.9 [+1.7]
Jul 2016	+0.8 to +1.0 [+0.9]	+1.0 to +2.0 [+1.9]	+1.0 to +2.0 [+1.9]
Apr 2016	+0.6 to +1.2 [+1.0]	+1.0 to +2.1 [+1.9]	+1.0 to +2.1 [+1.9]
2019
Apr 2017	+0.6 to +0.7 [+0.7]	+1.4 to +2.5 [+2.4]	+0.9 to +2.0 [+1.9]

Figures in brackets are the median of forecasts of Policy Board members

Source: Policy Board, Bank of Japan

Figures in brackets are the median of forecasts of Policy Board members

Source: Policy Board, Bank of Japan

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k150121a.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140715a.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1510b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1601b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1604b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1607b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1701b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1704b.pdf

The Nikkei Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI Index™ with the Flash Japan

Manufacturing PMI™ decreased from 52.9 in Sep to 52.5 in Oct and the Flash Japan

Manufacturing Output Index™ decreased from 53.2 in Sep to 52.6 in Oct

(https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c7ab690ffb6c4a9fb7cc9a5596fd00f7). New export orders increased. Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS

Markit, finds growth conditions

(https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c7ab690ffb6c4a9fb7cc9a5596fd00f7).The Nikkei Composite Output PMI Index increased from 51.7 in Sep to 53.4 in Oct, indicating improving business activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/476fef51b6e543b18503bcf88e1166b2). The Nikkei Business Activity Index of Services increased to 53.4 in Oct from 51.0 in Sep (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/476fef51b6e543b18503bcf88e1166b2). Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, finds continuing business activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/476fef51b6e543b18503bcf88e1166b2). The Nikkei Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI™), seasonally adjusted, decreased from 52.9 in Sep to 52.8 in Oct (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/6069f3ebe4e643f18266debabe60aae1). New orders increased while new foreign orders expanded. Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, finds consistent conditions in manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/6069f3ebe4e643f18266debabe60aae1). Table JPY provides the country data table for Japan.

Table JPY, Japan, Economic Indicators

Historical GDP and CPI	1981-2010 Real GDP Growth and CPI Inflation 1981-2010 Blog 8/9/11 Table 26
Corporate Goods Prices	Sep ∆% 0.2 12 months ∆% 3.0 Blog 10/15/17
Consumer Price Index	Sep NSA ∆% 0.2; Sep 12 months NSA ∆% 0.7 Blog 10/29/17
Real GDP Growth	IIQ2017 ∆%: 0.6 on IQ2017; IIQ2017 SAAR 2.5; ∆% from quarter a year earlier: 1.4 % Blog 6/16/13 8/18/13 9/15/13 11/17/13 12/15/13 2/23/14 3/16/14 5/18/14 6/15/14 8/17/14 9/14/14 11/23/14 12/14/14 2/22/15 3/15/15 5/24/15 6/14/15 8/23/15 9/13/15 11/22/15 12/13/15 2/21/16 3/13/16 5/22/16 6/12/16 8/21/16 9/11/16 11/20/16 12/11/16 2/19/17 3/12/17 5/21/17 6/11/17 8/20/17 9/10/17
Employment Report	Sep Unemployed 1.90 million Change in unemployed since last year: -140 thousand Unemployment rate: 2.8% Blog 11/5/17
All Industry Indices	Jul month SA ∆% -0.1 12-month NSA ∆% 2.0 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15
Industrial Production	Sep SA month ∆%: -1.1 Sep 12-month NSA ∆% 2.5 Earlier Data: Blog 3/29/15
Machine Orders	Total Sep ∆% -10.2 Private ∆%: -2.9 Sep ∆% Excluding Volatile Orders minus 8.1 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Tertiary Index	Sep month SA ∆% -0.2 Sep 12 months NSA ∆% 0.6 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15
Wholesale and Retail Sales	Aug 12 months: Total ∆%: 3.5 Wholesale ∆%: 4.3 Retail ∆%: 1.7 Earlier Data: Blog 3/29/15
Family Income and Expenditure Survey	Sep 12-month ∆% total nominal consumption 0.6, real -0.3 Earlier Data: Blog 3/29/15
Trade Balance	Exports Sep 12 months ∆%: 14.1 Imports Sep 12 months ∆% 12.0 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15

Links to blog comments in Table JPY: 11/5/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/11/unchanged-fomc-policy-rate-gradual.html

10/29/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/dollar-revaluation-and-increase-of.html

10/15/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

10/1/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/destruction-of-household-nonfinancial.html

9/17/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/dollar-devaluation-world-inflation.html

9/10/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

9/3/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

8/27/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/dollar-devaluation-and-interest-rate.html

8/20/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

8/13/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million_40.html

7/30/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/data-dependent-monetary-policy-with_30.html

5/21/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/dollar-devaluation-world-inflation.html

3/12/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/increasing-interest-rates-twenty-four.html

3/5/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

12/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/rising-values-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/20/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/interest-rate-increase-could-well.html

9/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/interest-rate-uncertainty-and-valuation.html

8/21/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/interest-rate-policy-uncertainty-and.html

6/12/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/considerable-uncertainty-about-economic.html

5/22/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/most-fomc-participants-judged-that-if.html

3/13/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/monetary-policy-and-fluctuations-of_13.html

12/13/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/liftoff-of-interest-rates-with-volatile_17.html

11/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-liftoff-followed-by.html

9/13/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what_13.html

08/23/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/global-decline-of-values-of-financial.html

6/14/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/volatility-of-financial-asset.html

5/24/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/interest-rate-policy-and-dollar.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

3/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

2/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html

12/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/global-financial-and-economic-risk.html

11/23/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.htm

9/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitics-monetary-policy-and.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

6/15/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financialgeopolitical-risks-recovery.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html

2/23/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html

12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

VC China. China estimates an index of nonmanufacturing purchasing managers based on a sample of 1200 nonmanufacturing enterprises across the country (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Table CIPMNM provides this index and components. The total index increased from 55.7 in Jan 2011 to 58.0 in Mar 2012, decreasing to 53.9 in Aug 2013. The index decreased from 56.0 in Nov 2013 to 54.6 in Dec 2013, easing to 53.4 in Jan 2014. The index moved to 54.3 in Oct 2017. The index of new orders increased from 52.2 in Jan 2012 to 54.3 in Dec 2012 but fell to 50.1 in May 2013, barely above the neutral frontier of 50.0. The index of new orders stabilized at 51.0 in Nov-Dec 2013, easing to 50.9 in Jan 2014. The index of new orders moved to 51.1 in Oct 2017.

Table CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted

	Total Index	New Orders	Interm. Input Prices	Subs Prices	Exp
Oct 2017	54.3	51.1	54.3	51.6	60.6
Sep	55.4	52.3	56.1	51.7	61.7
Aug	53.4	50.9	54.4	51.5	61.0
Jul	54.5	51.1	53.1	50.9	61.1
Jun	54.9	51.4	51.2	49.3	61.1
May	54.5	50.9	51.1	48.8	60.2
Apr	54.0	50.5	51.7	50.2	59.7
Mar	55.1	51.9	52.3	49.7	61.3
Feb	54.2	51.2	53.7	51.4	62.4
Jan	54.6	51.3	55.1	51.0	58.9
Dec 2016	54.5	52.1	56.2	51.9	59.5
Nov	54.7	51.8	53.5	51.4	60.7
Oct	54.0	50.9	53.7	51.5	60.6
Sep	53.7	51.4	51.7	50.1	61.1
Aug	53.5	49.8	52.6	50.4	59.4
Jul	53.9	49.9	51.4	49.5	59.5
Jun	53.7	50.8	51.6	50.6	58.6
May	53.1	49.2	51.6	49.8	57.8
Apr	53.5	48.7	52.1	49.1	59.1
Mar	53.8	50.8	51.4	49.5	59.0
Feb	52.7	48.7	50.5	48.3	59.5
Jan	53.5	49.6	49.9	47.7	58.4
Dec2015	54.4	51.7	49.0	48.2	58.3
Nov	53.6	50.2	49.3	47.7	60.0
Oct	53.1	51.2	51.2	48.8	61.1
Sep	53.4	50.2	50.8	47.9	60.0
Aug	53.4	49.6	49.6	47.8	59.7
Jul	53.9	50.1	48.9	47.4	60.0
Jun	53.8	51.3	50.6	48.7	59.7
May	53.2	49.5	52.8	50.4	60.1
Apr	53.4	49.1	50.8	48.9	60.0
Mar	53.7	50.3	50.0	48.4	58.8
Feb	53.9	51.2	52.5	51.2	58.7
Jan	53.7	50.2	47.6	46.9	59.6
Dec 2014	54.1	50.5	50.1	47.3	59.5
Nov	53.9	50.1	50.6	47.7	59.7
Oct	53.8	51.0	52.0	48.8	59.9
Sep	54.0	49.5	49.8	47.3	60.9
Aug	54.4	50.0	52.2	48.3	61.2
Jul	54.2	50.7	53.4	49.5	61.5
Jun	55.0	50.7	56.0	50.8	60.4
May	55.5	52.7	54.5	49.0	60.7
Apr	54.8	50.8	52.4	49.4	61.5
Mar	54.5	50.8	52.8	49.5	61.5
Feb	55.0	51.4	52.1	49.0	59.9
Jan	53.4	50.9	54.5	50.1	58.1
Dec 2013	54.6	51.0	56.9	52.0	58.7
Nov	56.0	51.0	54.8	49.5	61.3
Oct	56.3	51.6	56.1	51.4	60.5
Sep	55.4	53.4	56.7	50.6	60.1
Aug	53.9	50.9	57.1	51.2	62.9
Jul	54.1	50.3	58.2	52.4	63.9
Jun	53.9	50.3	55.0	50.6	61.8
May	54.3	50.1	54.4	50.7	62.9
Apr	54.5	50.9	51.1	47.6	62.5
Mar	55.6	52.0	55.3	50.0	62.4
Feb	54.5	51.8	56.2	51.1	62.7
Jan	56.2	53.7	58.2	50.9	61.4
Dec 2012	56.1	54.3	53.8	50.0	64.6
Nov	55.6	53.2	52.5	48.4	64.6
Oct	55.5	51.6	58.1	50.5	63.4
Sep	53.7	51.8	57.5	51.3	60.9
Aug	56.3	52.7	57.6	51.2	63.2
Jul	55.6	53.2	49.7	48.7	63.9
Jun	56.7	53.7	52.1	48.6	65.5
May	55.2	52.5	53.6	48.5	65.4
Apr	56.1	52.7	57.9	50.3	66.1
Mar	58.0	53.5	60.2	52.0	66.6
Feb	57.3	52.7	59.0	51.2	63.8
Jan	55.7	52.2	58.2	51.1	65.3

Notes: Interm.: Intermediate; Subs: Subscription; Exp: Business Expectations

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart CIPMNM provides China’s nonmanufacturing purchasing managers’ index. The index fell from 56.0 in Oct 2013 to 54.3 in Oct 2017.

Chart CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Table CIPMMFG provides the index of purchasing managers of manufacturing seasonally adjusted of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The general index (IPM) rose from 50.5 in Jan 2012 to 53.3 in Apr 2012, falling to 49.2 in Aug 2012, rebounding to 50.6 in Dec 2012. The index fell to 50.3 in Jul 2013, barely above the neutral frontier at 50.0, recovering to 51.4 in Nov 2013 but falling to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.5 in Jan 2014, 50.1 in Dec 2014 and 51.6 in Oct 2017. The index of new orders fell from 54.5 in Apr 2012 to 51.2 in Dec 2012. The index of new orders fell from 52.3 in Nov 2013 to 52.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.9 in Jan 2014 and moved to 50.4 in Dec 2014. The index moved to 52.9 in Oct 2017.

Table CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted

	IPM	PI	NOI	INV	EMP	SDEL
2017
Oct	51.6	53.4	52.9	48.6	49.0	48.7
Sep	52.4	54.7	54.8	48.9	49.0	49.3
Aug	51.7	54.1	53.1	48.3	49.1	49.3
Jul	51.4	53.5	52.8	48.5	49.2	50.1
Jun	51.7	54.4	53.1	48.6	49.0	49.9
May	51.2	53.4	52.3	48.5	49.4	50.2
Apr	51.2	53.8	52.3	48.3	49.2	50.5
Mar	51.8	54.2	53.3	48.3	50.0	50.3
Feb	51.6	53.7	53.0	48.6	49.7	50.5
Jan	51.3	53.1	52.8	48.0	49.2	49.8
2016
Dec	51.4	53.3	53.2	48.0	48.9	50.0
Nov	51.7	53.9	53.2	48.4	49.2	49.7
Oct	51.2	53.3	52.8	48.1	48.8	50.2
Sep	50.4	52.8	50.9	47.4	48.6	49.9
Aug	50.4	52.6	51.3	47.6	48.4	50.6
Jul	49.9	52.1	50.4	47.3	48.2	50.5
Jun	50.0	52.5	50.5	47.0	47.9	50.7
May	50.1	52.3	50.7	47.6	48.2	50.4
Apr	50.1	52.2	51.0	47.4	47.8	50.1
Mar	50.2	52.3	51.4	48.2	48.1	51.3
Feb	49.0	50.2	48.6	48.0	47.6	49.8
Jan	49.4	51.4	49.5	46.8	47.8	50.5
2015
Dec	49.7	52.2	50.2	47.6	47.4	50.7
Nov	49.6	51.9	49.8	47.1	47.6	50.6
Oct	49.8	52.2	50.3	47.2	47.8	50.6
Sep	49.8	52.3	50.2	47.5	47.9	50.8
Aug	49.7	51.7	49.7	48.3	47.9	50.6
Jul	50.0	52.4	49.9	48.4	48.0	50.4
Jun	50.2	52.9	50.1	48.7	48.1	50.3
May	50.2	52.9	50.6	48.2	48.2	50.9
Apr	50.1	52.6	50.2	48.2	48.0	50.4
Mar	50.1	52.1	50.2	48.0	48.4	50.1
Feb	49.9	51.4	50.4	48.2	47.8	49.9
Jan	49.8	51.7	50.2	47.3	47.9	50.2
2014
Dec	50.1	52.2	50.4	47.5	48.1	49.9
Nov	50.3	52.5	50.9	47.7	48.2	50.3
Oct	50.8	53.1	51.6	48.4	48.4	50.1
Sep	51.1	53.6	52.2	48.8	48.2	50.1
Aug	51.1	53.2	52.5	48.6	48.2	50.0
Jul	51.7	54.2	53.6	49.0	48.3	50.2
Jun	51.0	53.0	52.8	48.0	48.6	50.5
May	50.8	52.8	52.3	48.0	48.2	50.3
Apr	50.4	52.5	51.2	48.1	48.3	50.1
Mar	50.3	52.7	50.6	47.8	48.3	49.8
Feb	50.2	52.6	50.5	47.4	48.0	49.9
Jan	50.5	53.0	50.9	47.8	48.2	49.8
Dec 2013	51.0	53.9	52.0	47.6	48.7	50.5
Nov	51.4	54.5	52.3	47.8	49.6	50.6
Oct	51.4	54.4	52.5	48.6	49.2	50.8
Sep	51.1	52.9	52.8	48.5	49.1	50.8
Aug	51.0	52.6	52.4	48.0	49.3	50.4
Jul	50.3	52.4	50.6	47.6	49.1	50.1
Jun	50.1	52.0	50.4	47.4	48.7	50.3
May	50.8	53.3	51.8	47.6	48.8	50.8
Apr	50.6	52.6	51.7	47.5	49.0	50.8
Mar	50.9	52.7	52.3	47.5	49.8	51.1
Feb	50.1	51.2	50.1	49.5	47.6	48.3
Jan	50.4	51.3	51.6	50.1	47.8	50.0
Dec 2012	50.6	52.0	51.2	47.3	49.0	48.8
Nov	50.6	52.5	51.2	47.9	48.7	49.9
Oct	50.2	52.1	50.4	47.3	49.2	50.1
Sep	49.8	51.3	49.8	47.0	48.9	49.5
Aug	49.2	50.9	48.7	45.1	49.1	50.0
Jul	50.1	51.8	49.0	48.5	49.5	49.0
Jun	50.2	52.0	49.2	48.2	49.7	49.1
May	50.4	52.9	49.8	45.1	50.5	49.0
Apr	53.3	57.2	54.5	48.5	51.0	49.6
Mar	53.1	55.2	55.1	49.5	51.0	48.9
Feb	51.0	53.8	51.0	48.8	49.5	50.3
Jan	50.5	53.6	50.4	49.7	47.1	49.7

IPM: Index of Purchasing Managers; PI: Production Index; NOI: New Orders Index; EMP: Employed Person Index; SDEL: Supplier Delivery Time Index

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

China estimates the manufacturing index of purchasing managers on the basis of a sample of 820 enterprises (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Chart CIPMMFG provides the manufacturing index of purchasing managers. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013. The index decreased from 51.4 in Nov 2013 to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index moved to 51.6 in Oct 2017.

Chart CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Table VC-GDP China, Quarterly Growth of GDP, Current CNY 100 Million and Inflation Adjusted ∆%

Cumulative GDP IIQ2017	Value Current CNY Billion IIIQ2017	Value Current CNY Billion IQ2017 to IIIQ2017	IIIQ2017 Year-on-Year Constant Prices ∆%	Cumulative to IIIQ2017 ∆%
GDP	21,179.8	59,328.8	6.8	6.9
Primary Industry	1,924.2	4,122.9	3.9	3.7
Farming	1,992.5	4,285.4	4.0	3.8
Secondary Industry	8,512.1	23,810.9	6.0	6.3
Industry	7,049.3	20,173.6	6.3	6.4
Construction	1,493.9	3,726.5	4.0	4.8
Tertiary Industry	10,743.5	31,395.1	8.0	7.8
Transport, Storage, Post	969.3	2,716.7	9.1	9.2
Wholesale, Retail Trades	1,943.7	5,582.0	7.1	7.2
Accommodation and Restaurants	369.8	1,042.4	7.1	7.2
Finance	1,681.8	5,036.0	5.6	4.4
Real Estate	1,319.9	3,885.1	3.9	5.9
Other	3,086.1	9,157.6	6.7	6.9
Growth in Quarter Relative to Prior Quarter	∆% on Prior Quarter		∆% Annual Equivalent	∆% Year-on-Year
2017
IIIQ2017	1.7		7.0	6.8
IIQ2017	1.8		7.4	6.9
IQ2017	1.4		5.7	6.9
2016
IVQ2016	1.7		7.0	6.8
IIIQ2016	1.8		7.4	6.7
IIQ2016	1.9		7.8	6.7
IQ2016	1.3		5.3	6.7
2015
IVQ2015	1.6		6.6	6.8
IIIQ2015	1.7		7.0	6.9
IIQ2015	1.7		7.0	7.0
IQ2015	1.7		7.0	7.0
2014
IVQ2014	1.7		7.0	7.2
IIIQ2014	1.8		7.4	7.1
IIQ2014	1.8		7.4	7.5
IQ2014	1.7		7.0	7.4
2013
IVQ2013	1.6		6.6	7.7
IIIQ2013	2.1		8.7	7.9
IIQ2013	1.7		7.0	7.6
IQ2013	1.9		7.8	7.9
2012
IVQ2012	2.0		8.2	8.1
IIIQ2012	1.8		7.4	7.5
IIQ2012	2.1		8.7	7.6
IQ2012	1.9		7.8	8.1
2011
IVQ2011	1.5		6.1	8.8
IIIQ2011	1.9		7.8	9.4
IIQ2011	2.4		10.0	10.0
IQ2011	2.4		10.0	10.2

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Growth of China’s GDP in IIIQ2017 relative to the same period in 2016 was 6.8 percent and cumulative growth to IIIQ2017 was 6.9 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDP. Secondary industry accounts for 40.1 percent of cumulative GDP in IIIQ2017. In cumulative IIIQ2017, industry accounts for 34.0 percent of GDP and construction for 6.3 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 52.9 percent of cumulative GDP in IIIQ2017 and primary industry for 6.9 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is shifting to lower growth rates with improvement in living standards by increasing growth of services. Table VC-GDPA shows that growth decelerated from 12.1 percent in IQ2010 and 11.2 percent in IIQ2010 to 7.9 percent in IQ2013, 7.6 percent in IIQ2013 and 7.9 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP grew 7.7 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 1.6 percent relative to IIIQ2013, which is equivalent to 6.6 percent per year. GDP grew 7.4 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.7 percent in IQ2014 that is equivalent to 7.0 percent per year. GDP grew 7.5 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is annual equivalent 7.4 percent. In IIIQ2014, GDP grew 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is 7.4 percent in annual equivalent. GDP grew 1.7 percent in IVQ2014, which is 7.0 percent in annual equivalent and 7.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2015, GDP grew 1.7 percent, which is equivalent to 7.0 in a year and 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 1.7 percent in IIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent in a year, and grew 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.7 percent in IIIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent in a year, and grew 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.6 percent in IVQ2015, which is equivalent to 6.6 percent in a year and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, GDP grew at 1.3 percent, which is equivalent to 5.3 percent in a year, and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.9 percent in IIQ2016, which is annual equivalent to 7.8 percent, and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, GDP grew at 1.8 percent, which is equivalent to 7.4 percent in a year and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, GDP grew at 1.7 percent, equivalent to 7.0 percent in a year, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 6.9 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased at 1.4 percent, which is 5.7 percent in annual equivalent. In IIQ2017, GDP grew at 1.8 percent, which is annual equivalent at 7.4 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.7 percent in IIIQ2017, which is annual equivalent at 7.0 percent, and increased at 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier.

Table VC-GDPA China, Growth Rate of GDP, ∆% Relative to a Year Earlier and ∆% Relative to Prior Quarter

	IQ2017	IIQ2017	IIIQ2017
GDP	6.9	6.9	6.8
Primary Industry	3.0	3.8	3.9
Secondary Industry	6.4	6.4	6.0
Tertiary Industry	7.7	7.6	8.0
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.4	1.8	1.7

	IQ2015	IIQQ2015	IIIQ2015	IVQ2015	IQ2016	IIQ2016	IIIQ2016	IVQ2016
GDP	7.0	7.0	6.9	6.8	6.7	6.7	6.7	6.8
Primary Industry	3.2	3.5	3.8	4.1	2.9	3.1	3.5	2.9
Secondary Industry	6.4	6.1	6.0	6.1	5.8	6.3	6.1	6.1
Tertiary Industry	7.9	8.4	8.4	8.2	7.6	7.5	7.6	8.3
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.7	1.7	1.7	1.6	1.3	1.9	1.8	1.7
	IQ 2013	IIQ 2013	IIIQ 2013	IVQ 2013	IQ 2014	IIQ 2014	IIIQ 2014	IVQ 2014
GDP	7.9	7.6	7.9	7.7	7.4	7.5	7.1	7.2
Primary Industry	3.4	3.0	3.4	4.0	3.5	3.9	4.2	4.1
Secondary Industry	7.8	7.6	7.8	7.8	7.3	7.4	7.4	7.3
Tertiary Industry	8.3	8.3	8.4	8.3	7.1	8.0	7.9	8.1
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.9	1.7	2.1	1.6	1.7	1.8	1.8	1.7
	IQ 2011	IIQ 2011	IIIQ 2011	IVQ 2011	IQ 2012	IIQ 2012	IIIQ 2012	IVQ 2012
GDP	10.2	10.0	9.4	8.8	8.1	7.6	7.5	8.1
Primary Industry	3.5	3.2	3.8	4.5	3.8	4.3	4.2	4.5
Secondary Industry	11.1	11.0	10.8	10.6	9.1	8.3	8.1	8.1
Tertiary Industry	9.1	9.2	9.0	8.9	7.5	7.7	7.9	8.1
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	2.4	2.4	1.9	1.5	1.9	2.1	1.8	2.0
	IQ 2010	IIQ 2010	IIIQ 2010	IVQ 2010
GDP	12.1	11.2	10.7	12.1
Primary Industry	3.8	3.6	4.0	3.8
Secondary Industry	14.5	13.3	12.6	14.5
Tertiary Industry	10.5	9.9	9.7	10.5

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Growth of China’s GDP in IVQ2016 relative to the same period in 2016 was 6.8 percent and

Chart VC-GDP of the National Bureau of Statistics of China provides annual value and growth rates of GDP. China’s GDP growth in 2016 is still high at 6.7 percent but at the lowest rhythm in five years.

Chart VC-GDP, China, Gross Domestic Product, Million Yuan and ∆%

Source: National bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart VC-FXR provides China’s foreign exchange reserves. FX reserves grew from $2399.2 billion in 2009 to $38430 billion in 2013 driven by high growth of China’s trade surplus, decreasing to $30105 billion in 2016.

Chart VC-FXR, China, Foreign Exchange Reserves, 2012-2016

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Chart VC-Trade provides China’s imports and exports. Exports exceeded imports with resulting large trade balance surpluses that increased foreign exchange reserves.

Chart VC-Trade, China, Imports and Exports of Goods, 2012-2016, $100 Million US Dollars

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Chart VC-PCDI provides the level and growth rates of per capita disposable income in China.

Chart VC-PCDI, China, Level and Growth Rates of Per Capita Disposable Income

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

The Caixin Flash China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) compiled by Markit (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/883014a121534f51bc42e5060845f727) is mixed. The overall Flash Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI^™ decreased from 47.3 in Aug to 47.0 in Sep, while the Flash Caixin China General Manufacturing Output Index decreased from 46.4 in Aug to 45.7 in Aug, indicating weaker conditions. He Fan, Chief Economist at Caixin Insight Group finds need of fiscal and monetary policy (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/883014a121534f51bc42e5060845f727). The Caixin China General Services PMI^™, compiled by Markit, shows that the Caixin Composite Output, combining manufacturing and services, decreased from 51.4 in Sep to 51.0 in Oct (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/456bf9f6c9c9416594059138ec1f7fca). Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at CEBM Group, finds slowing activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/456bf9f6c9c9416594059138ec1f7fca). The Caixin General Manufacturing PMI^™ did not change to 51.0 in Oct from 51.0 in Sep, indicating growth conditions in manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/609b6edcc50d4b28bb81a398a23199c3). Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at CEBM Group, finds moderate conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/609b6edcc50d4b28bb81a398a23199c3). Table CNY provides the country data table for China.

Table CNY, China, Economic Indicators

Price Indexes for Industry	Oct 12-month ∆%: 6.9 Oct month ∆%: 0.7 Blog 11/12/17
Consumer Price Index	Oct 12-month ∆%: 1.9 Oct month ∆%: 0.1 Blog 11/12/17
Value Added of Industry	Jul month ∆%: 0.41 Jan-Jul 2017/Jan-Jul 2016 ∆%: 6.8 Earlier Data Blog 4/19/15
GDP Growth Rate	Year IIIQ2017 ∆%: 6.8 III Quarter 2017 ∆%: 1.7 Quarter IIQ2017 AE ∆%: 7.0 Blog 10/29/17
Investment in Fixed Assets	Total Jan-Jul 2017 ∆%: 8.3 Real estate development: 7.9 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Retail Sales	Jun month ∆%: 0.73 Jan-Jul 2017 ∆%: 10.4 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Trade Balance	Oct balance $38.17 billion Exports 12M ∆% 6.9 Imports 12M ∆% 17.2 2016 Exports ∆% 11.3 2016 Imports ∆% 17.3 Cumulative Oct 2017: $340.33 billion Cumulative Oct 2016: $427.39 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15

Links to blog comments in Table CNY: 10/29/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/dollar-revaluation-and-increase-of.html

10/22/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/world-inflation-waves-long-term-and.html

9/17/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/dollar-devaluation-world-inflation.html

8/20/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

8/13/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million_40.html

7/23/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/dollar-devaluation-and-valuation-of.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

VD Euro Area. Using calendar and seasonally adjusted data (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of the euro area (19 countries) fell 5.7 percent from IQ2008 to IIQ2009. The GDP of the euro area (19 countries) increased 8.6 percent from IIIQ2009 to IVQ2016 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.1 percent. The GDP of the euro area (19 countries) is higher by 2.4 percent in IVQ2016 relative to the pre-recession peak in IQ2008, growing at annual equivalent rate of 0.3 percent. The GDP of the euro area (18) countries increased at the average yearly rate of 2.3 percent from IQ1999 to IQ2008 while that of the euro area (19 countries) increased at 2.3 percent. Table VD-EUR provides yearly growth rates of the combined GDP of the members of the European Monetary Union (EMU) or euro area since 1999. Growth was very strong at 3.2 percent in 2006 and 3.0 percent in 2007. The global recession had strong impact with growth of only 0.4 percent in 2008 and decline of 4.5 percent in 2009. Recovery was at lower growth rates of 2.1 percent in 2010 and 1.5 percent in 2011. EUROSTAT estimates growth of GDP of the euro area of minus 0.9 percent in 2012 and minus 0.3 percent in 2013. Euro Area GDP grew 1.2 percent in 2014 and grew 2.0 percent in 2015. The GDP of the euro area grew 1.7 percent in 2016.

Table VD-EUR, Euro Area, Yearly Percentage Change of Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, Unemployment and GDP ∆%

Year	HICP ∆%	Unemployment %	GDP ∆%
1999	1.2	9.7	3.0
2000	2.2	8.9	3.8
2001	2.4	8.3	2.1
2002	2.3	8.6	1.0
2003	2.1	9.1	0.7
2004	2.2	9.3	2.3
2005	2.2	9.1	1.7
2006	2.2	8.4	3.2
2007	2.2	7.5	3.0
2008	3.3	7.6	0.4
2009	0.3	9.6	-4.5
2010	1.6	10.2	2.1
2011	2.7	10.2	1.5
2012	2.5	11.4	-0.9
2013	1.3	12.0	-0.3
2014	0.4	11.6	1.2
2015	0.0	10.9	2.0
2016	0.2	10.0	1.7

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

The GDP of the euro area in 2015 in current US dollars in the dataset of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is $11,990.9 billion or 16.3 percent of world GDP of $73,598.8 billion (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/02/weodata/index.aspx). The sum of the GDP of France $2420.2 billion with the GDP of Germany of $3365.3 billion, Italy of $1815.8 billion and Spain $1199.7 billion is $8,801.0 billion or 73.4 percent of total euro area GDP and 13.1 percent of World GDP. The four largest economies account for slightly more than three quarters of economic activity of the euro area. Table VD-EUR1 is constructed with the dataset of EUROSTAT, providing growth rates of the euro area as a whole and of the largest four economies of Germany, France, Italy and Spain annually from 1996 to 2016. The impact of the global recession on the overall euro area economy and on the four largest economies was quite strong. There was sharp contraction in 2009 and growth rates have not rebounded to earlier growth with exception of Germany in 2010 and 2011.

Table VD-EUR1, Euro Area, Real GDP Growth Rate, ∆%

	Euro Area	Germany	France	Italy	Spain
2016	1.7	1.9	1.2	0.9	3.2
2015	2.0	1.7	1.3	0.8	3.2
2014	1.2	1.6	0.6	0.1	1.4
2013	-0.3	0.5	0.6	-1.7	-1.7
2012	-0.9	0.5	0.2	-2.8	-2.9
2011	1.5	3.7	2.1	0.6	-1.0
2010	2.1	4.1	2.0	1.7	0.0
2009	-4.5	-5.6	-2.9	-5.5	-3.6
2008	0.4	1.1	0.2	-1.1	1.1
2007	3.0	3.3	2.4	1.5	3.8
2006	3.2	3.7	2.4	2.0	4.2
2005	1.7	0.7	1.6	0.9	3.7
2004	2.3	1.2	2.8	1.6	3.2
2003	0.7	-0.7	0.8	0.2	3.2
2002	1.0	0.0	1.1	0.2	2.9
2001	2.1	1.7	2.0	1.8	4.0
2000	3.8	3.0	3.9	3.7	5.3
1999	3.0	2.0	3.4	1.6	4.5
1998	2.9	2.0	3.6	1.6	4.3
Average 1999-2016	1.2	1.3	1.3	0.3	1.7
Average 1999-2007	2.2	1.6	2.1	1.5	3.8
Average 2016-2007	0.3	1.0	0.6	-7.0*	-0.5*
1997	2.6	1.8	2.3	1.8	3.7
1996	1.6	0.8	1.4	1.3	2.7

Note: Absolute percentage change

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

The Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index of the HIS Markit Flash Eurozone PMI^®, combining activity in manufacturing and services, decreased from 56.7 in Sep to 55.9 in Oct (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b420df7fc5f048c186bd3df92c0d40c9). Andrew Harker, Associate Director at IHS Markit, finds that the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI index suggests GDP growth about 0.7 percent quarterly (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b420df7fc5f048c186bd3df92c0d40c9). The IHS Markit Eurozone PMI^® Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing activity with close association with GDP decreased from 56.7 in Sep to 56.0 in Oct (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8ad74afa2af44947a094b8a9432f8be2). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds potential for growth of about 0.6 to 0.7 percent in quarterly GDP (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8ad74afa2af44947a094b8a9432f8be2). The IHS Markit Eurozone Services Business Activity Index decreased from 55.8 in Sep to 55.0 in Oct (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8ad74afa2af44947a094b8a9432f8be2). The IHS Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI^® increased from 58.1 in Sep to 58.5 in Oct (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/29f87d7a8eec46fe9c4f9b020dcadc4c). New export orders increased. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds strong industrial growth (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/29f87d7a8eec46fe9c4f9b020dcadc4c). Table EUR provides the data table for the euro area.

Table EUR, Euro Area Economic Indicators

GDP	IIQ2017 ∆% 0.6; IIQ2017/IIQ2016 ∆% 2.3 Blog 9/13/15 11/22/15 12/13/15 2/14/16 3/13/16 5/1/16 5/15/16 6/12/16 8/7/16 8/14/16 9/11/16 11/20/16 12/11/16 02/26/17 3/12/17 5/21/17 6/11/17 8/20/17 9/10/17
Unemployment	Sep 2017: 8.9 % unemployment rate; Sep 2017: 14.513 million unemployed Blog 11/5/17
HICP	Sep month ∆%: 0.4 12 months Apr ∆%: 1.5 Blog 10/22//17
Producer Prices	Euro Zone industrial producer prices Sep ∆%: 0.6 Sep 12-month ∆%: 2.9 Blog 11/12/17
Industrial Production	Aug Month ∆%: 1.4; 12 months ∆%: 3.8 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Retail Sales	Sep month ∆%: 0.7 Sep 12 months ∆%: 3.7 Earlier Data: Blog 3/15/15
Confidence and Economic Sentiment Indicator	Sentiment 113.0 Sep 2017 Consumer minus -1.2 Sep 2017 Earlier Data: Blog 4/5/15
Trade	Jan-Aug 2017/Jan-Aug 2016 Exports ∆%: 7.6 Imports ∆%: 11.1 Aug 2017 12-month Exports ∆% 6.8 Imports ∆% 8.6 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15

Links to blog comments in Table EUR: 11/5/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/11/unchanged-fomc-policy-rate-gradual.html

10/22/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/world-inflation-waves-long-term-and.html

10/8/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

9/10/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

9/3/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

8/20/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

8/13/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million_40.html

8/6/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/data-dependent-monetary-policy-with.html

6/11/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/flattening-us-treasury-yield-curve.html

5/21/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/dollar-devaluation-world-inflation.html

3/12/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/increasing-interest-rates-twenty-four.html

2/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

12/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/rising-values-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/20/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/interest-rate-increase-could-well.html

11/13/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/dollar-revaluation-and-valuations-of.html

11/6/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/the-case-for-increase-in-federal-funds.html

9/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/interest-rate-uncertainty-and-valuation.html

8/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

8/7/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/global-competitive-easing-or.html

6/12/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/considerable-uncertainty-about-economic.html

5/15/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

5/1/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/economic-activity-appears-to-have.html

3/13/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/monetary-policy-and-fluctuations-of_13.html

3/6/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/twenty-five-million-unemployed-or.html

2/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/subdued-foreign-growth-and-dollar.html

12/13/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/liftoff-of-interest-rates-with-volatile_17.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

VE Germany. Table VE-DE provides yearly growth rates of the German economy from 1971 to 2016, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked. Germany’s GDP fell 5.6 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.1 percent in 2008. Recovery has been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.1 percent in 2010, 3.7 percent in 2011 and 0.5 percent in 2012. Growth stabilized to 0.5 percent in 2013, increasing to 1.9 percent in 2014. The German economy grew at 1.7 percent in 2015 and grew at 1.9 percent in 2016.

The Federal Statistical Agency of Germany analyzes the fall and recovery of the German economy (http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Content/Statistics/VolkswirtschaftlicheGesamtrechnungen/Inlandsprodukt/Aktuell,templateId=renderPrint.psml):

“The German economy again grew strongly in 2011. The price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.0% compared with the previous year. Accordingly, the catching-up process of the German economy continued during the second year after the economic crisis. In the course of 2011, the price-adjusted GDP again exceeded its pre-crisis level. The economic recovery occurred mainly in the first half of 2011. In 2009, Germany experienced the most serious post-war recession, when GDP suffered a historic decline of 5.1%. The year 2010 was characterised by a rapid economic recovery (+3.7%).”

Table VE-DE, Germany, GDP ∆% on Prior Year

	Price Adjusted Chain-Linked	Price- and Calendar-Adjusted Chain Linked
Average ∆% 1991-2016	1.4
Average ∆% 1991-1999	1.5
Average ∆% 2000-2007	1.4
Average ∆% 2003-2007	2.2
Average ∆% 2007-2016	1.1
Average ∆% 2009-2016	2.0
2016	1.9	1.9
2015	1.7	1.5
2014	1.9	1.9
2013	0.5	0.6
2012	0.5	0.7
2011	3.7	3.7
2010	4.1	3.9
2009	-5.6	-5.6
2008	1.1	0.8
2007	3.3	3.4
2006	3.7	3.9
2005	0.7	0.9
2004	1.2	0.7
2003	-0.7	-0.7
2002	0.0	0.0
2001	1.7	1.8
2000	3.0	3.2
1999	2.0	1.8
1998	2.0	1.8
1997	1.8	1.9
1996	0.8	0.9
1995	1.7	1.8
1994	2.5	2.5
1993	-1.0	-1.0
1992	1.9	1.5
1991	5.1	5.2
1990	5.3	5.5
1989	3.9	4.0
1988	3.7	3.4
1987	1.4	1.3
1986	2.3	2.3
1985	2.3	2.6
1984	2.8	2.9
1983	1.6	1.5
1982	-0.4	-0.5
1981	0.5	0.6
1980	1.4	1.3
1979	4.2	4.3
1978	3.0	3.1
1977	3.3	3.5
1976	4.9	4.5
1975	-0.9	-0.9
1974	0.9	1.0
1973	4.8	5.0
1972	4.3	4.3
1971	3.1	3.0
1970	NA	NA

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/NationalAccounts.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/DomesticProduct/CurrentRevision.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Methods/NationalAccountRevision/Revision2014_BackgroundPaper.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/02/PE14_048_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/08/PE13_278_811.html https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/11/PE13_381_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/01/PE14_016_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/DE/PresseService/Presse/Pressekonferenzen/2014/BIP2013/Pressebroschuere_BIP2013.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/05/PE14_167_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/09/PE14_306_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/11/PE14_401_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_048_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_61_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/05/PE15_173_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/05/PE15_187_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/08/PE15_293_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/08/PE15_305_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/11/PE15_419_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/11/PE15_430_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/DomesticProduct/DomesticProduct.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/02/PE16_056_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/02/PE16_044_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/05/PE16_162_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/05/PE16_171_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/08/PE16_279_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/08/PE16_291_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/11/PE16_403_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/11/PE16_413_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/02/PE17_050_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/02/PE17_062_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/05/PE17_155_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/05/PE17_169_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/08/PE17_277_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/08/PE17_294_811.html

The Flash Germany Composite Output Index of the IHS Markit Flash Germany PMI^®, combining manufacturing and services, decreased from 57.7 in Sep to 56.9 in Oct. The index of manufacturing output reached 60.0 in Oct, decreasing from 61.7 in Sep, while the index of services decreased to 55.2 in Oct from 55.6 in Sep. The overall Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI^® decreased from 60.6 in Sep to 60.5 in Oct (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/99658a8a07404ad6a7f71bc337964adc). New orders and new export orders in manufacturing increased. Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit, finds improving growth of the private sector of Germany (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/99658a8a07404ad6a7f71bc337964adc). The IHS Markit Germany Composite Output Index of the IHS Markit Germany Services PMI^®, combining manufacturing and services with close association with Germany’s GDP, decreased from 55.7 in Sep to 56.6 in Oct (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/91f47ea5ac98436da3c5b8c4e958398a). Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit, finds growth of Germany (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/91f47ea5ac98436da3c5b8c4e958398a). The Germany Services Business Activity Index decreased from 55.6 in Sep to 54.7 in Oct (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/91f47ea5ac98436da3c5b8c4e958398a). The IHS Markit/BME Germany Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®), showing close association with Germany’s manufacturing conditions, did not change from 60.6 in Sep to 60.6 in Oct (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/30341d5fb50343a5813faeaea691ad5a). New export orders increased. Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit, finds continuing growth conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/30341d5fb50343a5813faeaea691ad5a). Table DE provides the country data table for Germany.

Table DE, Germany, Economic Indicators

GDP	IIQ2017 0.6 ∆%; IIQ2017/IIQ2016 CA ∆% 2.1 2016/2015: 1.9% GDP ∆% 1970-2016 Blog 8/26/12 5/27/12 11/25/12 2/24/13 5/19/13 5/26/13 8/18/13 8/25/13 11/17/13 11/24/13 1/26/14 2/16/14 3/2/14 5/18/14 5/25/14 8/17/14 9/7/14 11/16/14 11/30/14 2/15/15 3/1/15 5/17/15 5/24/15 8/16/15 8/30/15 11/22/15 11/29/15 2/14/16 2/28/16 5/15/16 5/29/16 8/14/16 8/28/16 11/20/16 11/27/16 2/19/17 02/26/17 05/14/17 5/28/17 8/20/17 8/27/17
Consumer Price Index	Sep month NSA ∆%: 0.1 Sep 12-month NSA ∆%: 1.8 Blog 10/15/17
Producer Price Index	Sep month ∆%: 0.3 NSA, 0.4 CSA 12-month NSA ∆%: 3.1 Blog 10/22/17
Industrial Production	MFG Sep month CSA ∆%: minus 1.5 12-month NSA: 0.7 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Machine Orders	MFG Sep month ∆%: 1.0 Sep 12-month ∆%: 6.3 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Retail Sales	Aug Month ∆% -0.4 Jul -1.2 12-Month Aug % 2.8 Jul 2.8 Earlier Data: Blog 4/5/15
Employment Report	Unemployment Rate SA Sep 3.6% Blog 11/5/17
Trade Balance	Exports Sep 12-month NSA ∆%: 4.6 Imports Sep 12 months NSA ∆%: 5.5 Exports Sep month CSA ∆%: -0.4; Imports Sep month CSA -1.0 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15

Links to blog comments in Table DE: 11/5/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/11/unchanged-fomc-policy-rate-gradual.html

10/22/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/world-inflation-waves-long-term-and.html

10/15/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

10/8/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

9/17/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/dollar-devaluation-world-inflation.html

9/3/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

8/27/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/dollar-devaluation-and-interest-rate.html

8/20/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

8/13/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million_40.html

8/6/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/data-dependent-monetary-policy-with.html

5/28/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

5/14/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million_14.html

2/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

02/19/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

11/27/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/dollar-revaluation-rising-yields-and.html

11/20/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/interest-rate-increase-could-well.html

11/13/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/dollar-revaluation-and-valuations-of.html

11/6/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/the-case-for-increase-in-federal-funds.html

8/28/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/and-as-ever-economic-outlook-is.html

8/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

5/29/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/appropriate-for-fed-to-increase.html

5/15/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

2/28/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

2/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/subdued-foreign-growth-and-dollar.html

11/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/dollar-revaluation-constraining.html

11/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-liftoff-followed-by.html

08/30/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/fluctuations-of-global-financial.html

08/16/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/exchange-rate-and-financial-asset.html

5/24/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/interest-rate-policy-and-dollar.html

5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

9/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/competitive-monetary-policy-and.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

1/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/01/capital-flows-exchange-rates-and.html

11/24/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html

8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

VF France. Table VF-FR provides growth rates of GDP of France with the estimates of Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE). The long-term rate of GDP growth of France from IVQ1949 to IIIQ2017 is quite high at 3.1 percent. France’s growth rates were quite high in the four decades of the 1950s, 1960, 1970s and 1980s with an average growth rate of 4.0 percent compounding the average rates in the decades and discounting to one decade. The growth impulse diminished with 2.0 percent in the 1990s and 1.8 percent from 2000 to 2007. The average growth rate from 2000 to 2016, using fourth quarter data, is 1.1 percent because of the sharp impact of the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. Cobet and Wilson (2002) provide estimates of output per hour and unit labor costs in national currency and US dollars for the US, Japan and Germany from 1950 to 2000 (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 137-44). The average yearly rate of productivity change from 1950 to 2000 was 2.9 percent in the US, 6.3 percent for Japan and 4.7 percent for Germany while unit labor costs in USD increased at 2.6 percent in the US, 4.7 percent in Japan and 4.3 percent in Germany. From 1995 to 2000, output per hour increased at the average yearly rate of 4.6 percent in the US, 3.9 percent in Japan and 2.6 percent in Germany while unit labor costs in US fell at minus 0.7 percent in the US, 4.3 percent in Japan and 7.5 percent in Germany. There was increase in productivity growth in the G7 in Japan and France in the second half of the 1990s but significantly lower than the acceleration of 1.3 percentage points per year in the US. Lucas (2011May) compares growth of the G7 economies (US, UK, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Canada) and Spain, finding that catch-up growth with earlier rates for the US and UK stalled in the 1970s.

Table VF-FR, France, Average Growth Rates of GDP Fourth Quarter, 1949-2016

Period	Average ∆%
1949-2017	3.1
2007-2017***	0.7
2007-2016**	0.5
2007-2015*	0.5
2007-2014	0.4
2000-2016	1.1
2000-2015	1.1
2000-2014	1.1
2000-2007	1.8
1990-1999	2.0
1980-1989	2.6
1970-1979	3.7
1960-1969	5.7
1950-1959	4.2

*IVQ2007 to IVQ2015 **IVQ2007 to IVQ2016 ***IVQ2007 to IIIQ2017

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/3150404

http://www.bdm.insee.fr/bdm2/choixTheme?request_locale=en&code=10#arbo:montrerbranches=theme312

The IHS Markit Flash France Composite Output Index increased from 57.1 in Sep to 57.5 in Oct (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b422e7c360574709b036b531f0b7812c). Alex Gill, Economist at IHS Markit, finds expanding activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b422e7c360574709b036b531f0b7812c). The IHS Markit France Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing with close association with French GDP, increased from 57.1 in Sep to 57.4 in Oct, indicating faster activity of the private sector (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b04fce67c1c74f41a652c6d276e22ce3). Alex Gill, Economist at IHS Markit that compiles the France Services PMI^®, finds continuing growth (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b04fce67c1c74f41a652c6d276e22ce3). The IHS Markit France Services Activity index increased from 57.0 in Sep to 57.3 in Oct (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b04fce67c1c74f41a652c6d276e22ce3). The IHS Markit France Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^® did not change to 56.1 in Oct from 56.1 in Sep (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/bd10d296f8bb4c6b87b5eea0d5d1448b). Alex Gill, Economist at IHS Markit, finds improving manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/bd10d296f8bb4c6b87b5eea0d5d1448b). Table FR provides the country data table for France.

Table FR, France, Economic Indicators

CPI	Sep month ∆% -0.2 12 months ∆%: 1.0 10/15/17
PPI	Sep month ∆%: 0.5 Sep 12 months ∆%: 2.1 Blog 11/5/17
GDP Growth	IIIQ2017/IIQ2017 ∆%: 0.5 IIIQ2017/IIIQ2016 ∆%: 2.2 Blog 3/31/13 5/19/12 6/30/13 9/29/13 11/17/13 12/29/13 2/16/14 4/6/14 5/18/14 6/29/14 8/17/14 9/28/14 11/16/14 12/28/14 2/15/15 3/29/15 5/17/15 6/28/15 8/16/15 9/27/15 11/15/15 12/27/15 1/31/16 2/28/16 3/27/16 5/1/16 6/5/16 06/26/16 8/7/16 9/4/16 9/25/16 10/30/16 12/4/16 1/1/17 2/12/17 3/5/17 3/26/17 5/7/17 6/4/17 6/25/17 8/20/17 9/3/17 11/12/17
Industrial Production	Sep ∆%: Manufacturing 0.4 Quarter ∆%: 0.6 YOY 2.7 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Consumer Spending	Manufactured Goods Sep ∆%: 0.8 Sep 12-Month Manufactured Goods ∆%: 2.9 Earlier Data: Blog 4/5/15
Employment	Unemployment Rate: IIQ2017 9.2% Blog 8/20/17
Trade Balance	Sep Exports ∆%: month 0.3 12 months 8.2 Imports ∆%: month 1.3 12 months 7.2 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Confidence Indicators	Historical average 100 Oct Mfg Business Climate 111 Earlier Data: Blog 3/29/15

Links to blog comments in Table FR: 11/5/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/11/unchanged-fomc-policy-rate-gradual.html

10/15/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

10/8/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

9/17/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/dollar-devaluation-world-inflation.html

9/3/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

8/20/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

8/13/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million_40.html

7/30/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/data-dependent-monetary-policy-with_30.html

6/25/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/united-states-commercial-banks-united.html

6/4/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

5/7/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

3/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

3/5/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

2/12/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

1/1/17 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/rules-versus-discretionary-authorities.html

12/4/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/rising-yields-and-dollar-revaluation.html

10/30/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/10/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_30.html

9/25/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/the-economic-outlook-is-inherently.html

9/4/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/interest-rates-and-valuations-of-risk.html

8/7/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/global-competitive-easing-or.html

6/26/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/of-course-considerable-uncertainty.html

6/5/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/financial-turbulence-twenty-four.html

5/1/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/economic-activity-appears-to-have.html

3/27/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/contraction-of-united-states-corporate.html

2/28/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

1/31/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/closely-monitoring-global-economic-and.html

12/27/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/dollar-revaluation-and-decreasing.html

11/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-policy-conundrum-recovery.html

9/27/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/monetary-policy-designed-on-measurable.html

08/16/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/exchange-rate-and-financial-asset.html

6/28/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/international-valuations-of-financial.html

5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

9/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

12/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/collapse-of-united-states-dynamism-of.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

6/30/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/tapering-quantitative-easing-policy-and.html

5/19/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/word-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

Growth of GDP in a quarter relative to the prior quarter for France is in Table VF-1. GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 and changed 0.0 percent in IQ2013, rebounding with growth of 0.7 percent in IIQ2013. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2013. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2014. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2014. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 and changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2014. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2015 and changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2015. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2015. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2016. GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IIQ2016. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 0.6 percent in IVQ2016. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2017 and increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2017. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2017. The French economy grew 0.1 percent in IVQ2011, increasing 0.1 percent in IQ2012, contracting 0.1 percent in IIQ2012 and growing 0.1 percent in IIIQ2012. In the four quarters of 2012 and the first quarter of 2013, France’s GDP contracted in two quarters and stagnated in one quarter. Growth in the ten quarters of expansion from IIIQ2009 to IVQ2011 accumulated 4.6 percent at the annual equivalent rate of 1.8 percent. Recovery has been much weaker than the cumulative 2.5 percent in the four quarters of 2006. The GDP of France contracted 4.0 percent from the pre-recession peak in IQ2008 at €508,894 million SA-WDA (seasonally adjusted working day adjusted volumes chained at previous year prices) to the trough in IIQ2009 at €488,563 million SA-WDA. The GDP of France increased 6.3 percent from the pre-recession peak in IQ2008 at €508,894 million SA-WDA to €541,188 million SA-WDA in IIIQ2017 at the annual equivalent rate of 0.7 percent. French GDP increased 10.8 percent from €488,563 million SA-WDA in IIQ2009 to €541,188 million SA-WDA in IIIQ2017 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.2 percent. French GDP in IQ2017 is 10.4 percent below trend at average 1.8 percent from 2000 to 2007. Weak recoveries in advanced economies have prevented full utilization of labor, capital and productive resources.

Table VF-1, France, Quarterly Real GDP Growth, Quarter on Prior Quarter ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IVQ
2017	0.5	0.6	0.5
2016	0.6	-0.1	0.1	0.6
2015	0.4	0.0	0.4	0.3
2014	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.0
2013	0.0	0.7	0.0	0.4
2012	0.1	-0.1	0.1	-0.1
2011	1.1	0.0	0.2	0.1
2010	0.5	0.6	0.6	0.6
2009	-1.6	-0.2	0.2	0.6
2008	0.4	-0.5	-0.3	-1.5
2007	0.8	0.7	0.4	0.3
2006	0.8	0.9	0.1	0.7
2005	0.3	0.2	0.5	0.7
2004	0.9	0.6	0.4	0.7
2003	0.2	-0.2	0.7	0.7
2002	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.0
2001	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.0
2000	1.0	0.9	0.7	0.8
1999	0.6	0.9	1.2	1.2

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/3150404

http://www.bdm.insee.fr/bdm2/choixTheme?request_locale=en&code=10#arbo:montrerbranches=theme312

Growth rates of France’s real GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier are in Table VF-2. France has not recovered the rates of growth exceeding 2 percent prior to the global recession. GDP fell 3.8 percent in IQ2009, 3.6 percent in IIQ2009, 3.1 percent in IIIQ2009 and 1.0 percent in IVQ2009. Growth in IVQ2011 relative to IVQ2010 was 1.4 percent and GDP growth declined to 0.4 percent in IQ2012, 0.3 percent in IIQ2012 relative to the same quarter a year earlier, 0.2 percent in IIIQ2012 relative to a year earlier and 0.0 percent in IVQ2012 relative to a year earlier. Growth in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier was 0.0 percent. France’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 0.6 percent in IIIQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.1 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 1.2 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.2 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.2 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.9 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.0 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.2 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.2 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.9 percent in IIIQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.2 percent in IVQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.1 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.8 percent in IIQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 2.2 percent in IIIQ2017 relative to a year earlier.

Table VF-2, France, Real GDP Growth Current Quarter Relative to Same Quarter Year Earlier ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IVQ
2017	1.1	1.8	2.2
2016	1.2	1.2	0.9	1.2
2015	1.2	0.9	0.8	1.0
2014	1.2	0.7	1.2	0.8
2013	0.0	0.8	0.6	1.1
2012	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.0
2011	2.9	2.3	1.9	1.4
2010	1.1	1.9	2.3	2.3
2009	-3.8	-3.6	-3.1	-1.0
2008	1.7	0.6	-0.1	-1.8
2007	2.4	2.3	2.6	2.1
2006	2.2	2.9	2.5	2.5
2005	1.9	1.5	1.6	1.6
2004	2.2	3.0	2.6	2.5
2003	0.9	0.4	0.7	1.5
2002	1.0	1.1	1.1	1.1
2001	2.9	2.2	1.8	1.0
2000	4.4	4.4	3.9	3.4
1999	2.8	3.0	3.4	4.0

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/3150404

http://www.bdm.insee.fr/bdm2/choixTheme?request_locale=en&code=10#arbo:montrerbranches=theme312

Chart VF-1 shows France’s quarterly real GDP from IQ1949 to IQ2017. France’s economy has grown dynamically over decades. Recovery from the global recession in 2008-2009 slowed with marginal increase.

Chart VF-1, France, Quarterly Real GDP, Seasonally and Working Day Adjusted, IQ1949-IQ2017

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/3047950

http://www.bdm.insee.fr/bdm2/choixTheme?request_locale=en&code=10#arbo:montrerbranches=theme312

Percentage changes and contributions of segments of GDP in France are in Table VF-3. Internal demand contributed 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2016. Internal demand added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017. Internal demand added 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2017 and added 0.6 percentage points in IIIQ2017. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade subtracted 0.6 percentage points in IQ2017 and added 0.6 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points in IIIQ2017.

Table VF-3, France, Contributions to GDP Growth, Calendar and Seasonally Adjusted, %

∆% from Prior Period	IVQ 2016	IQ 2017	IIQ 2017	IIIQ 2017	2016	2017
GDP	0.6	0.5	0.6	0.5	1.1	1.7
Imports	0.8	1.2	0.2	2.5	4.2	4.3
Household Consump.	0.7	0.1	0.3	0.5	2.1	1.1
Govt. Consump.	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.4	1.2	1.3
GFCF	0.7	1.4	1.0	0.8	2.7	3.3
General Government	-0.6	-0.8	0.2	-0.2	-0.1	-1.5
Exports	1.2	-0.7	2.3	0.7	1.9	2.7
% Point Contribs.
Internal Demand ex Inventory Changes	0.6	0.4	0.5	0.6	2.0	1.6
Inventory Changes	-0.2	0.7	-0.5	0.5	-0.1	0.6
Net Foreign Trade	0.1	-0.6	0.6	-0.6	-0.8	-0.6

Notes: Consump.: Consumption; Gvt.: Government; GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation; Contribus.: Contributions; OVHG: “annual growth rate carried over at the mid-year point.”

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/3150404

http://www.bdm.insee.fr/bdm2/choixTheme?request_locale=en&code=10#arbo:montrerbranches=theme312

Chart VF-2 of France’s Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques provides percentage point contributions to GDP growth. The economy was driven in IQ2013 by consumption with net trade and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) deducting from growth. Final consumption drove the economy in IIQ2013 together with contribution by net trade and capital formation. Gross fixed capital formation and net trade constrained the economy in IIIQ2013. Inventory changed deducted from growth in IVQ2013 with contributions by consumption and net trade. Inventory change contributed to growth in IQ2014 with deductions by consumption, GFCF and net foreign trade. Consumption contributed to growth in IIQ2014 with deductions by GFCF and net trade. Consumption and inventory change drove the economy in IIIQ2014 with deduction by net trade. Consumption and net trade drove the economy in IVQ2014 with deductions by GFCF and inventory change. Consumption, GFCF and inventory change drove the economy in IQ2015 with net trade deducting from growth. Net trade and consumption drove the economy in IIQ2015 with inventory change and GFCF deducting from growth. Consumption and inventory change drove the economy in IIIQ2015 with minor contribution by GFCF and significant deduction by net trade. Inventory change, consumption and GFCF drove the economy in IVQ2015 with deduction by net trade. Consumption and GFCF drove the economy in IQ2016 with deductions by inventory change and net trade. Consumption and net trade drove the economy in IIQ2016 with deduction by inventory change. Inventory change and GFCF drove the economy in IIIQ2016 with deductions by net trade and consumption. Consumption, GFCF and net trade drove the economy in IVQ2016 with deduction by inventory change. Inventory change, GFCF and consumption drove the economy in IQ2017 with deduction by net trade. GFCF, consumption and net trade drove the economy in IIQ2017 with deduction by inventory change. Consumption, GFCF and inventory change drove the economy in IIIQ2017 with deduction by net trade.

Chart VF-2, France, Percentage Point Contributions to GDP Growth

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/3150404

http://www.bdm.insee.fr/bdm2/choixTheme?request_locale=en&code=10#arbo:montrerbranches=theme312

VG Italy. Table VG-IT provides revised percentage changes of GDP in Italy of quarter on prior quarter and quarter on same quarter a year earlier. In IIQ2017, the GDP of Italy increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, the GDP of Italy increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2016, GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2015, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2015 and 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy changed 0.0 percent in IQ2014 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2013 and fell 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2013 and fell 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.1 in IIQ2013 and fell 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 1.1 percent in IQ2013 and declined 2.9 percent relative to IQ2012. GDP had been growing during six consecutive quarters but at very low rates from IQ2010 to IIQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell in seven consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at increasingly higher rates of contraction from 0.5 percent in IIIQ2011 to 1.0 percent in IVQ2011, 0.9 percent in IQ2012, 0.8 percent in IIQ2012 and 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012. The pace of decline accelerated to minus 0.6 percent in IVQ2012 and minus 1.1 percent in IQ2013. GDP contracted cumulatively 5.3 percent in seven consecutive quarterly contractions from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at the annual equivalent rate of minus 3.1 percent. The yearly rate has fallen from 2.2 percent in IVQ2010 to minus 2.8 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.9 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.0 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.3 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.7 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.0 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.1 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.9 percent in IIIQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.2 percent in IVQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.2 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.5 percent in IIQ2017 relative to a year earlier. Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of Italy in IIQ2017 of €397,445 million (http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/203116) is lower by 6.4 percent relative to €424,823.8 million in IQ2008 (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat). Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of Italy increased from €367,664.4 million in IQ1998 to €424,823.8 million in IQ2008 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.5 percent. The fiscal adjustment of Italy is significantly more difficult with the economy not growing especially on the prospects of increasing government revenue. The strategy is for reforms to improve productivity, facilitating future fiscal consolidation.

Table VG-IT, Italy, GDP ∆%

	Quarter ∆% Relative to Preceding Quarter	Quarter ∆% Relative to Same Quarter Year Earlier
IIQ2017	0.4	1.5
IQ2017	0.4	1.2
IVQ2016	0.4	1.2
IIIQ2016	0.3	0.9
IIQ2016	0.1	0.8
IQ2016	0.4	1.1
IVQ2015	0.2	1.0
IIIQ2015	0.2	0.7
IIQ2015	0.3	0.7
IQ2015	0.2	0.3
IVQ2014	0.0	0.1
IIIQ2014	0.1	0.1
IIQ2014	0.0	0.2
IQ2014	0.0	0.4
IVQ2013	0.0	-0.7
IIIQ2013	0.3	-1.3
IIQ2013	0.1	-2.0
IQ2013	-1.1	-2.9
IVQ2012	-0.6	-2.8
IIIQ2012	-0.5	-3.2
IIQ2012	-0.8	-3.2
IQ2012	-0.9	-2.3
IVQ2011	-1.0	-1.1
IIIQ2011	-0.5	0.4
IIQ2011	0.1	1.5
IQ2011	0.2	2.1
IVQ2010	0.5	2.2
IIIQ2010	0.6	1.9
IIQ2010	0.8	1.9
IQ2010	0.3	0.5
IVQ2009	0.3	-2.7
IIIQ2009	0.5	-5.2
IIQ2009	-0.6	-6.9
IQ2009	-2.9	-7.1
IVQ2008	-2.3	-3.5
IIIQ2008	-1.3	-1.3
IIQ2008	-0.8	-0.1
IQ2008	0.8	0.7
IV2007	-0.1	0.1
IIIQ2007	-0.1	1.2
IIQ2007	0.0	1.7
IQ2007	0.2	2.3

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/203116

The IHS Markit Italy Business Activity Index decreased from 53.2 in Sep to 52.1 in Oct (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/61514a15bfc74f4ab4be309d5dd27e8f). Paul Smith, Director at IHS Markit that compiles the Italy Services PMI^®, finds weaker conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/61514a15bfc74f4ab4be309d5dd27e8f). The IHS Markit Italy Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®), increased from 56.3 in Sep to 57.8 in Oct (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c9b0aad431f64c2d8e2a0ed929d1d8a1). New export orders continued to increase. Paul Smith, Director at HIS Markit that compiles the Italian Manufacturing PMI^®, finds consistent manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c9b0aad431f64c2d8e2a0ed929d1d8a1). Table IT provides the country data table for Italy.

Table IT, Italy, Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index	Oct month ∆% -0.2 12 months ∆%: 1.0 Blog 11/5/17
Producer Price Index	Sep month ∆%: 0.2 Sep 12-month ∆%: 1.6 Blog 11/5/17
GDP Growth	IQ2017/IQ2017 SA ∆%: 0.4 IIQ2017/IIQ2016 NSA ∆%: 1.5 Blog 3/17/13 6/16/13 8/11/13 9/15/13 11/17/13 12/15/13 2/16/14 3/16/14 5/18/14 6/15/14 8/10/14 8/31/14 10/19/14 11/16/14 12/7/14 2/15/15 3/15/15 5/17/15 5/31/15 8/16/15 9/6/15 11/15/15 12/6/15 2/14/16 3/6/16 5/15/16 6/5/16 8/14/16 9/11/16 11/20/16 12/4/16 02/26/17 3/12/17 5/21/17 6/4/17 8/20/17 9/3/17
Labor Report	Sep 2017 Participation rate 65.6% Employment ratio 58.1% Unemployment rate 11.1% Youth Unemployment 35.7% Blog 11/5/17
Industrial Production	Sep month ∆%: -1.3 12 months CA ∆%: 2.4 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Retail Sales	Sep month ∆%: 0.9 Sep 12-month ∆%: 3.4 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15
Business Confidence	Mfg Oct 111.0, Jun 107.7 Construction Oct 130.3, Jun 129.8 Earlier Data: Blog 4/5/15
Trade Balance	Balance Aug SA €3574 million Exports Aug month SA ∆%: 4.2; Imports month ∆%: 3.5 Exports 12 months Aug NSA ∆%: 8.4 Imports 12 months NSA ∆%: 8.2 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15

Links to blog comments in Table IT: 11/5/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/11/unchanged-fomc-policy-rate-gradual.html

10/15/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/increasing-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

10/8/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html

9/3/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

8/20/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

8/13/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million_40.html

8/6/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/data-dependent-monetary-policy-with.html

6/4/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

5/21/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/dollar-devaluation-world-inflation.html

3/12/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/increasing-interest-rates-twenty-four.html

2/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

12/4/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/rising-yields-and-dollar-revaluation.html

11/20/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/interest-rate-increase-could-well.html

9/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/interest-rate-uncertainty-and-valuation.html

8/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

6/5/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/financial-turbulence-twenty-four.html

5/15/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

3/6/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/twenty-five-million-unemployed-or.html

2/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/subdued-foreign-growth-and-dollar.html

12/6/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/liftoff-of-fed-funds-rate-followed-by.html

11/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-policy-conundrum-recovery.html

9/6/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what.html

08/16/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/exchange-rate-and-financial-asset.html

5/31/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/dollar-revaluation-squeezing-corporate.html

5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

12/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/financial-risks-twenty-six-million.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

10/19/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/imf-view-squeeze-of-economic-activity.html

8/31/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitical-and-financial-risks.html

8/10/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/volatility-of-valuations-of-risk_10.html

6/15/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financialgeopolitical-risks-recovery.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

8/11/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/recovery-without-hiring-loss-of-full.html

6/16/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/recovery-without-hiring-seven-million.html

3/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

VH United Kingdom. Annual data in Table VH-UK show the strong impact of the global recession in the UK with decline of GDP of 4.2 percent in 2009 after dropping 0.5 percent in 2008. Recovery of 1.7 percent in 2010 is relatively low in comparison with annual growth rates in 2007 and earlier years. Growth was only 1.5 percent in 2011 and 1.5 percent in 2012. Growth increased to 2.1 percent in 2013 and 3.1 percent in 2014. Growth fell to 2.3 percent in 2015 and 1.8 percent in 2016. The bottom part of Table VH-UK provides average growth rates of UK GDP since 1948. The UK economy grew at 2.6 percent per year on average between 1948 and 2016, which is relatively high for an advanced economy. The growth rate of GDP between 2000 and 2007 is higher at 2.7 percent. Growth in the current cyclical expansion from 2010 to 2016 has been only at 2.0 percent as advanced economies struggle with weak internal demand and world trade. GDP in 2016 is higher by 9.4 percent relative to 2007 while it would have been 27.1 higher at trend of 2.7 percent as from 2000 to 2007.

Table VH-UK, UK, Gross Domestic Product, ∆%

	∆% on Prior Year
1998	3.1
1999	3.2
2000	3.7
2001	2.5
2002	2.5
2003	3.3
2004	2.4
2005	3.1
2006	2.5
2007	2.4
2008	-0.5
2009	-4.2
2010	1.7
2011	1.5
2012	1.5
2013	2.1
2014	3.1
2015	2.3
2016	1.8
Average Growth Rates ∆% per Year
1948-2016	2.6
1950-1959	3.1
1960-1969	3.1
1970-1979	2.6
1980-1989	3.2
1990-1999	2.3
2000-2007	2.7
2007-2013*	1.9
2007-2014*	5.0
2007-2015	0.9
2007-2016	1.0
2000-2016	1.7

*Absolute change from 2007 to 2013 and 2007 to 2014

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/grossdomesticproductpreliminaryestimate/julytoseptember2017

The HIS Markit Flash UK PMI^® Composite Output Index fell from 52.4 in Jun to 47.7 in Jul, which is the lowest in 87 months (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/b68c3686a48c40198505b81e4e55cd81). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds the index suggests pace of contraction of GDP at 0.4 percent in IIIQ2016 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/b68c3686a48c40198505b81e4e55cd81). The Business Activity Index of the IHS Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI^® increased from 53.6 in Sep to 55.6 in Oct (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/dbc7e65e9c234a4985ceeeaf3b21215f). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds the combined indices consistent with the UK economy growing close to 0.5 percent in IVQ2017 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/dbc7e65e9c234a4985ceeeaf3b21215f). The IHS Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®) increased to 56.3 in Oct from 56.0 in Sep (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/2011351210e34afbbacaadc01df95dd7). New export orders increased. Rob Dobson, Director at IHS Markit that compiles the Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI^®, finds stronger quarterly manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/2011351210e34afbbacaadc01df95dd7). Table UK provides the economic indicators for the United Kingdom.

Table UK, UK Economic Indicators

CPI	Sep month ∆%: 0.3 Sep 12-month ∆%: 3.0 Blog 10/22/17
Output/Input Prices	Output Prices: Sep 12-month NSA ∆%: 3.3; excluding food, petroleum ∆%: 2.5 Input Prices: Sep 12-month NSA ∆%: 8.4 Excluding ∆%: 6.8 Blog 10/22/17
GDP Growth	IIIQ2017 prior quarter ∆% 0.4; year earlier same quarter ∆%: 1.5 Blog 3/31/13 4/28/13 5/26/13 7/28/13 8/25/13 9/29/13 10/27/13 12/1/13 12/22/13 2/2/14 3/2/14 4/6/14 5/4/14 5/25/14 6/29/14 7/27/14 8/17/14 10/5/14 10/26/14 11/30/14 12/28/14 2/1/15 3/1/15 4/5/15 5/3/15 5/31/15 7/5/15 8/2/15 9/6/15 10/4/15 11/1/15 11/29/15 12/27/15 1/31/16 2/28/16 4/3/16 5/1/16 5/29/16 7/3/16 7/31/16 9/4/16 10/9/16 10/30/16 11/27/16 1/1/17 2/5/17 2/26/17 4/9/17 5/7/2017 5/28/17 7/9/17 7/30/17 8/27/17 10/8/17 10/29/17
Industrial Production	Sep 2017/Sep 2016 ∆%: Production Industries 2.5; Manufacturing 2.7 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Retail Sales	Aug month ∆%: 1.0 Aug 12-month ∆%: 2.4 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15
Labor Market	Jun-Aug 2017 Unemployment Rate: 4.3% Blog 10/22/17 LMGDP 5/17/15
GDP and the Labor Market	IQ2015 Employment 104.8 IQ2008 =100 GDP IQ15=104.0 IQ2008=100 Blog 5/17/14

Trade Balance UK Trade in Goods and Services	Balance SA Sep -₤2754 million Exports Sep ∆%: 2.2; Jul-Sep ∆%: 11.4 Imports Sep ∆%: 0.7 Jul-Sep ∆%: 5.4 EARLIER DATA: Blog 4/12/15