Contraction of United States GDP at 32.9
Percent SAAR in First Quarter 2020 in the Global Recession, with Output in
the US Reaching a High in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the Lockdown
of Economic Activity in the COVID-19 Event, Mediocre Cyclical United States
Growth in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth
Underperforming Below Trend Worldwide, Contraction of Real Private Fixed
Investment at 29.9 Percent SAAR, United States Terms of Trade, Beginning
Recovery in United States New House Sales, United States House Prices, World
Cyclical Slow Growth, and Government Intervention in Globalization: Part III
Carlos M. Pelaez
© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009,
2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020.
IA Mediocre
Cyclical United States Economic Growth
IID United States Terms of International Trade
IIA United States
Housing Collapse
IIA1 Sales of New Houses
IIA2
United States House Prices
III World Financial Turbulence
IV Global Inflation
V World Economic
Slowdown
VA United States
VB Japan
VC China
VD Euro Area
VE Germany
VF France
VG Italy
VH United Kingdom
VI Valuation of Risk Financial
Assets
VII Economic
Indicators
VIII Interest Rates
IX Conclusion
References
Appendixes
Appendix I The Great Inflation
IIIB Appendix on Safe
Haven Currencies
IIIC Appendix on
Fiscal Compact
IIID Appendix on
European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort
IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the
Debt Crisis
The carry trade from zero interest rates to
leveraged positions in risk financial assets had proved strongest for commodity
exposures but US equities have regained leadership. The DJIA has increased 172.8
percent since the trough of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe on Jul 16, 2010
to Jul 31, 2020; S&P 500 has gained 219.9 percent and DAX 117.2 percent.
Before the current round of risk aversion, almost all assets in the column “∆%
Trough to 07/31/20” in Table VI-4 had double digit gains relative to the trough
around Jul 2, 2010 followed by negative performance but now some valuations of
equity indexes show varying behavior. China’s Shanghai Composite is 38.9
percent above the trough. Japan’s Nikkei
Average is 146.0 percent above the trough. Dow Global is 71.7 percent above the
trough. STOXX 50 of 50 blue-chip European equities (https://www.stoxx.com/index-details?symbol=sx5E) is 26.8
percent above the trough. NYSE Financial Index is 61.1 percent above the
trough. DAX index of German equities (http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DAX:IND) is 117.2
percent above the trough. Japan’s Nikkei Average is 146.0 percent above the
trough on Aug 31, 2010 and 90.6 percent above the peak on Apr 5, 2010. The
Nikkei Average closed at 21,710.00 on Jul 31, 2020 (http://professional.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/marketsdata.html?mod=WSJ_PRO_hps_marketdata), which is 111.7
percent higher than 10,254.43 on Mar 11, 2011, on
the date of the Tōhoku or Great East Japan Earthquake/tsunami. Global risk
aversion erased the earlier gains of the Nikkei. The dollar appreciated 1.2
percent relative to the euro. The dollar devalued before the new bout of
sovereign risk issues in Europe. The column “∆% week to 07/31/20” in Table VI-4
shows increase of 3.5 percent for China’s Shanghai Composite. The Nikkei decreased
4.6 percent. NYSE Financial decreased 0.7 percent in the week. Dow Global
decreased 1.0 percent in the week of Jul 31, 2020. The DJIA decreased 0.2
percent and S&P 500 increased 1.7 percent. DAX of Germany decreased 4.1
percent. STOXX 50 decreased 3.2 percent. The USD depreciated 1.1 percent. There
are still high uncertainties on European sovereign risks and banking soundness,
US and world growth slowdown and China’s growth tradeoffs. Sovereign problems
in the “periphery” of Europe and fears of slower growth in Asia and the US
cause risk aversion with trading caution instead of more aggressive risk
exposures. There is a fundamental change in Table VI-4 from the relatively
upward trend with oscillations since the sovereign risk event of Apr-Jul 2010.
Performance is best assessed in the column “∆% Peak to 07/31/20” that provides
the percentage change from the peak in Apr 2010 before the sovereign risk event
to Jul 31, 2020. Most risk financial assets had gained not only relative to the
trough as shown in column “∆% Trough to 07/31/20” but also relative to the peak
in column “∆% Peak to 07/31/20.” There are now several equity indexes above the
peak in Table VI-4: DJIA 135.9 percent, S&P 500 168.7 percent, DAX 94.5
percent, Dow Global 40.1 percent, NYSE Financial Index (https://www.nyse.com/quote/index/NYK.ID) 28.3 percent
and Nikkei Average 90.6 percent. STOXX 50 is 7.4 percent above the peak.
Shanghai Composite is 4.6 percent above the peak. The Shanghai Composite
increased 67.6 percent from March 12, 2014, to Jul 31, 2020. The US dollar
strengthened 22.1 percent relative to the peak. The factors of risk aversion
have adversely affected the performance of risk financial assets. The
performance relative to the peak in Apr 2010 is more important than the
performance relative to the trough around early Jul 2010 because improvement
could signal that conditions have returned to normal levels before European
sovereign doubts in Apr 2010.
Table VI-4,
Stock Indexes, Commodities, Dollar and Ten-Year Treasury
|
|
Peak
|
Trough
|
∆% to
Trough
|
∆% Peak to
07/31/
/20
|
∆% Week
07/31/20
|
∆% Trough
to 07/31/
20
|
|
DJIA
|
4/26/
10 |
7/2/10
|
-13.6
|
135.9
|
-0.2
|
172.8
|
|
S&P
500
|
4/23/
10 |
7/20/
10 |
-16.0
|
168.7
|
1.7
|
219.9
|
|
NYSE
Finance
|
4/15/
10 |
7/2/10
|
-20.3
|
28.3
|
-0.7
|
61.1
|
|
Dow Global
|
4/15/
10 |
7/2/10
|
-18.4
|
40.1
|
-1.0
|
71.7
|
|
Asia
Pacific
|
4/15/
10 |
7/2/10
|
-12.5
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
Japan Nikkei
Aver.
|
4/05/
10 |
8/31/
10 |
-22.5
|
90.6
|
-4.6
|
146.0
|
|
China
Shang.
|
4/15/
10 |
7/02
/10 |
-24.7
|
4.6
|
3.5
|
38.9
|
|
STOXX 50
|
4/15/10
|
7/2/10
|
-15.3
|
7.4
|
-3.2
|
26.8
|
|
DAX
|
4/26/
10 |
5/25/
10 |
-10.5
|
94.5
|
-4.1
|
117.2
|
|
Dollar
Euro |
11/25 2009
|
6/7
2010 |
21.2
|
22.1
|
-1.1
|
1.2
|
|
DJ UBS
Comm.
|
1/6/
10 |
7/2/10
|
-14.5
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
10-Year T
Note
|
4/5/
10 |
4/6/10
|
3.986
|
2.784
|
2.658
|
0.540
|
T: trough;
Dollar: positive sign appreciation relative to euro (less dollars paid per
euro), negative sign depreciation relative to euro (more dollars paid per euro)
Table VI-6,
updated with every blog comment, shows that exchange rate valuations affect a
large variety of countries, in fact, almost the entire world, in magnitudes
that cause major problems for domestic monetary policy and trade flows. Dollar
devaluation/fluctuation is expected to continue because of zero fed funds rate,
expectations of rising inflation, large budget deficit of the federal
government (http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703907004576279321350926848.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection) and now near
zero interest rates indefinitely but with interruptions caused by risk aversion
events. The euro has devalued 35.0 percent relative to the US dollar from the
high on Jul 15, 2008 to Jul 31, 2020. There are complex economic, financial and
political effects of the withdrawal of the UK from the European Union or BREXIT
after the referendum on Jun 23, 2016 (https://next.ft.com/eu-referendum for extensive
coverage by the Financial Times). The
British pound (GBP) devalued 6.1 percent from the trough of USD/₤1.388 on Jan
2, 2009 to USD/₤1.3085 on Jul 31, 2020 and devalued 53.3 percent from the high
of USD/₤2.006 on Jul 15, 2008, exchange rate changes measuring ₤/USD. Such similar event occurred in the week of
Sep 23, 2011 reversing the devaluation of the dollar in the form of sharp
appreciation of the dollar relative to other currencies from all over the world
including the offshore Chinese yuan market. The Bank of England reduced the
Bank Rate to 0.25 percent on Aug 4, 2016, and announced new measures of
quantitative easing
(http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/news/2016/008.aspx). The Bank of
England increased the policy interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 0.75
percent at the meeting of its Monetary Policy Committee on Aug 1, 2018 (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2018/august-2018). Column
“Peak” in Table VI-6 shows exchange rates during the crisis year of 2008. There
was a flight to safety in dollar-denominated government assets because of the
arguments in favor of TARP (Cochrane and Zingales 2009). This is evident in
various exchange rates that depreciated sharply against the dollar such as the
South African rand (ZAR) at the peak of depreciation of ZAR 11.578/USD on Oct
22, 2008. Subsequently, the ZAR appreciated to the trough of ZAR 7.238/USD by
Aug 15, 2010 but now depreciating 135.9 percent to ZAR 17.0714/USD on Jul 31,
2020, which is depreciation of 47.4 percent relative to Oct 22, 2008. An
example from Asia is the Singapore Dollar (SGD) that depreciated at the peak of
SGD 1.553/USD on Mar 3, 2009. The SGD depreciated by 13.2 percent to the trough
of SGD 1.348/USD on Aug 9, 2010 but is now depreciating 2.0 percent at SGD 1.3747/USD
on Jul 24, 2020 relative to the trough of depreciation but still stronger by 11.5
percent relative to the peak of depreciation on Mar 3, 2009. Another example is
the Brazilian real (BRL) that depreciated at the peak to BRL 2.43/USD on Dec 5,
2008. The BRL appreciated 28.5 percent to the trough at BRL 1.737/USD on Apr
30, 2010, showing depreciation of 200.7 percent relative to the trough to BRL 5.2232/USD
on Jul 24, 2020 but depreciating by 114.9 percent relative to the peak on Dec
5, 2008. At one point in 2011, the Brazilian real traded at BRL 1.55/USD and in
the week of Sep 23 surpassed BRL 1.90/USD in intraday trading for depreciation
of more than 20 percent. The Banco Central do Brasil (BCB), Brazil’s central
bank, decreased its policy rate SELIC for ten consecutive meetings (http://www.bcb.gov.br/?INTEREST) of its
monetary policy committee, COPOM. Brazil’s central bank reduced the SELIC rate
at its most recent meeting (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/pressdetail/2336/nota):
“231st Meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee
(COPOM) of the Central Bank of Brazil Press Release
06/16/2020
In its 231st meeting, the COPOM unanimously decided
to lower the Selic rate to 2.25 percent per year” (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/pressdetail/2336/nota). The Banco
Central do Brasil is engaging in repurchase operations in foreign currency
beginning Mar 18, 2020 (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/pressdetail/2319/nota). The monetary
authorities also provides multiple measures to face the COVID-19 event (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/pressdetail/2322/nota). The Banco
Central do Brasil also engaged in FX auctions (http://www.bcb.gov.br/en/#!/c/news/1828):
“BC announces FX auctions program 22/08/2013 6:44:00 PM
With the aim of providing FX ‘hedge” (protection) to the
economic agents and liquidity to the FX market, the Banco Central do Brasil
informs that a program of FX swap auctions and US dollar sale auctions with
repurchase program will begin, as of Friday, August 23. This program will last,
at least, until December 31, 2013. The swap auctions will occur every Monday,
Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, when US$500 million will be offered per day.
On Fridays, a credit line of US$1 billion will be offered to the market,
through sale auctions with repurchase agreement. If it is considered
appropriate, the Banco Central do Brasil will carry out additional operations.”
Jeffrey T.
Lewis, writing on “Brazil steps up battle to curb real’s rise,” on Mar 1, 2012,
published in the Wall Street Journal (http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203986604577255793224099580.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection), analyzes new
measures by Brazil to prevent further appreciation of its currency, including
the extension of the tax on foreign capital for three years terms, subsequently
broadened to five years, and intervention in the foreign exchange market by the
central bank. Jeff Fick, writing on “Brazil shifts tack to woo wary investors,”
on Jun 5, 2013, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324299104578527000680111188.html), analyzes the
lifting in the week of Jun 7, 2013, of the tax on foreign transactions designed
in Oct 2010 to contain the flood of foreign capital into Brazil that overvalued
its currency. Jeffrey T. Lewis, writing on “Brazil’s real closes weaker,” on
Jun 14, 2013, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323734304578545680335302180.html), analyzes
measures to contain accelerated depreciation such as currency swaps and the
lifting of the 1 percent tax on exchange derivatives on Jun 12, 2013.
Unconventional monetary policy of zero interest rates and quantitative easing
creates trends such as the depreciation of the dollar followed by Table VI-6
but with abrupt reversals during risk aversion. The main effects of
unconventional monetary policy are on valuations of risk financial assets and
not necessarily on consumption and investment or aggregate demand.
Table VI-6,
Exchange Rates
|
|
Peak
|
Trough
|
∆% P/T
|
Jul 31,
2020
|
∆% T
Jul 31,
2020
|
∆% P
Jul 31,
2020
|
|
EUR USD
|
7/15
2008 |
6/7 2010
|
|
07/31/2020
|
|
|
|
Rate
|
1.59
|
1.192
|
|
1.1781
|
|
|
|
∆%
|
|
|
-33.4
|
|
-1.2
|
-35.0
|
|
JPY USD
|
8/18
2008 |
9/15
2010 |
|
07/31/2020
|
|
|
|
Rate
|
110.19
|
83.07
|
|
105.84
|
|
|
|
∆%
|
|
|
24.6
|
|
-27.4
|
3.9
|
|
CHF USD
|
11/21 2008
|
12/8 2009
|
|
07/31/2020
|
|
|
|
Rate
|
1.225
|
1.025
|
|
0.9134
|
|
|
|
∆%
|
|
|
16.3
|
|
10.9
|
25.4
|
|
USD GBP
|
7/15
2008 |
1/2/ 2009
|
|
07/31/2020
|
|
|
|
Rate
|
2.006
|
1.388
|
|
1.3085
|
|
|
|
∆%
|
|
|
-44.5
|
|
-6.1
|
-53.3
|
|
USD AUD
|
7/15 2008
|
10/27 2008
|
|
07/31/2020
|
|
|
|
Rate
|
1.0215
|
1.6639
|
|
0.7142
|
|
|
|
∆%
|
|
|
-62.9
|
|
15.8
|
-37.1
|
|
ZAR USD
|
10/22 2008
|
8/15
2010 |
|
07/31/2020
|
|
|
|
Rate
|
11.578
|
7.238
|
|
17.0714
|
|
|
|
∆%
|
|
|
37.5
|
-135.9
|
-47.4
|
|
|
SGD USD
|
3/3
2009 |
8/9
2010 |
|
07/31/2020
|
|
|
|
Rate
|
1.553
|
1.348
|
|
1.3747
|
|
|
|
∆%
|
|
|
13.2
|
|
-2.0
|
11.5
|
|
HKD USD
|
8/15 2008
|
12/14 2009
|
|
07/31/2020
|
|
|
|
Rate
|
7.813
|
7.752
|
|
7.7506
|
|
|
|
∆%
|
|
|
0.8
|
|
0.0
|
0.8
|
|
BRL USD
|
12/5 2008
|
4/30 2010
|
|
07/31/2020
|
|
|
|
Rate
|
2.43
|
1.737
|
|
5.2232
|
|
|
|
∆%
|
|
|
28.5
|
|
-200.7
|
-114.9
|
|
CZK USD
|
2/13 2009
|
8/6 2010
|
|
07/31/2020
|
|
|
|
Rate
|
22.19
|
18.693
|
|
22.289
|
|
|
|
∆%
|
|
|
15.7
|
|
-19.2
|
-0.4
|
|
SEK USD
|
3/4 2009
|
8/9 2010
|
|
07/31/2020
|
||
|
Rate
|
9.313
|
7.108
|
|
8.7826
|
|
|
|
∆%
|
|
|
23.7
|
|
-23.6
|
5.7
|
|
CNY USD
|
7/20 2005
|
7/15
2008 |
|
07/31/2020
|
|
|
|
Rate
|
8.2765
|
6.8211
|
|
6.9752
|
-2.3
|
15.7
|
|
∆%
|
|
|
17.6
|
|
Symbols:
USD: US dollar; EUR: euro; JPY: Japanese yen; CHF: Swiss franc; GBP: UK pound;
AUD: Australian dollar; ZAR: South African rand; SGD: Singapore dollar; HKD:
Hong Kong dollar; BRL: Brazil real; CZK: Czech koruna; SEK: Swedish krona; CNY:
Chinese yuan; P: peak; T: trough
Note:
percentages calculated with currencies expressed in units of domestic currency
per dollar; negative sign means devaluation and no sign appreciation
Source:
and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/united-states-unsustainable-fiscal.html). The US is
facing an unsustainable debt/GDP path (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/10/global-contraction-of-valuations-of.html and earlier
and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/twenty-four-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/rising-yields-and-dollar-revaluation.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/unresolved-us-balance-of-payments.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/weakening-equities-and-dollar.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/monetary-policy-designed-on-measurable.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/patience-on-interest-rate-increases.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/monetary-policy-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html and earlier at
http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/united-states-unsustainable-fiscal.html).
The Chair of
the Federal Reserve Board, Jerome H. Powell, at the 61st Annual
Meeting on the National Association for Business Economics, on Oct 28, 2019, in
Denver, Colorado, stated (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20191008a.htm): “Reserve
balances are one among several items on the liability side of the Federal
Reserve's balance sheet, and demand for these liabilities—notably, currency in
circulation—grows over time. Hence, increasing the supply of reserves or even
maintaining a given level over time requires us to increase the size of our
balance sheet. As we indicated in our March statement on balance sheet
normalization, at some point, we will begin increasing our securities holdings
to maintain an appropriate level of reserves.18 That time is now upon us.
I want to emphasize that growth of our balance sheet for reserve
management purposes should in no way be confused with the large-scale asset
purchase programs that we deployed after the financial crisis. Neither the
recent technical issues nor the purchases of Treasury bills we are
contemplating to resolve them should materially affect the stance of monetary
policy, to which I now turn.” On October 25, 2017, at the beginning of the FOMC programmed
reduction of the balance sheet, Total Assets of Federal Reserve Banks stood at
$4,461,117 million. Total Assets increased $2,487,915 million from $4,461,117 on Oct 25, 2017 to
$6,949,032 on Jul 29, 2020. Total Assets of
Federal Reserve Banks increased from $3,981,420 million on Feb
20, 2019 to $6,949,032 million on Jul
29, 2020, by $2,967,612 million or 74.5
percent. The policy of reducing the fed funds policy rate requires increasing
the balance sheet. The line “Securities Held Outright” increased from
$4,019,823 million on Oct 25, 2017 to $6,229,291 on Jul 29, 2020 or $2,209,468
million. Securities Held Outright increased from $3,617,939 million on Jul 1,
2019 to $6,229,291 on Jul 29, 2020 by $2,611,352 million or 72.2 percent. The
portfolio of long-term securities (“securities held outright”) for monetary
policy consists primarily of $5866 billion, or $5.9 trillion, of which $3,661
billion Treasury nominal notes and bonds, $270 billion of notes and bonds
inflation-indexed, $2 billion Federal agency debt securities and $1933 billion
mortgage-backed securities ($1,933,380 million). Reserve balances deposited with
Federal Reserve Banks reached $2685 billion ($2,685,376 million) or $2.7
trillion (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/h41.htm#h41tab1). The rounded
values of $1649 billion of reserves deposited at Federal Reserve Banks and
mortgage-backed securities are identical on Dec 19, 2018, by pure coincidence.
There is no simple exit of this trap created by the highest monetary policy
accommodation in US history together with the highest deficits and debt in
percent of GDP since World War II. Risk aversion from various sources,
discussed in section III World Financial Turbulence, has been affecting
financial markets for several months. The risk is that in a reversal of
exposures because of increasing risk aversion that has been typical in this
cyclical expansion of the economy yields of Treasury securities may back up
sharply.
Table VI-7, Yield, Price and
Percentage Change to November 4, 2010 of Ten-Year Treasury Note
|
Date
|
Yield
|
Price
|
∆% 11/04/10
|
|
05/01/01
|
5.510
|
78.0582
|
-22.9
|
|
06/10/03
|
3.112
|
95.8452
|
-5.3
|
|
06/12/07
|
5.297
|
79.4747
|
-21.5
|
|
12/19/08
|
2.213
|
104.4981
|
3.2
|
|
12/31/08
|
2.240
|
103.4295
|
2.1
|
|
03/19/09
|
2.605
|
100.1748
|
-1.1
|
|
06/09/09
|
3.862
|
89.8257
|
-11.3
|
|
10/07/09
|
3.182
|
95.2643
|
-5.9
|
|
11/27/09
|
3.197
|
95.1403
|
-6.0
|
|
12/31/09
|
3.835
|
90.0347
|
-11.1
|
|
02/09/10
|
3.646
|
91.5239
|
-9.6
|
|
03/04/10
|
3.605
|
91.8384
|
-9.3
|
|
04/05/10
|
3.986
|
88.8726
|
-12.2
|
|
08/31/10
|
2.473
|
101.3338
|
0.08
|
|
10/07/10
|
2.385
|
102.1224
|
0.8
|
|
10/28/10
|
2.658
|
99.7119
|
-1.5
|
|
11/04/10
|
2.481
|
101.2573
|
-
|
|
11/15/10
|
2.964
|
97.0867
|
-4.1
|
|
11/26/10
|
2.869
|
97.8932
|
-3.3
|
|
12/03/10
|
3.007
|
96.7241
|
-4.5
|
|
12/10/10
|
3.324
|
94.0982
|
-7.1
|
|
12/15/10
|
3.517
|
92.5427
|
-8.6
|
|
12/17/10
|
3.338
|
93.9842
|
-7.2
|
|
12/23/10
|
3.397
|
93.5051
|
-7.7
|
|
12/31/10
|
3.228
|
94.3923
|
-6.7
|
|
01/07/11
|
3.322
|
94.1146
|
-7.1
|
|
01/14/11
|
3.323
|
94.1064
|
-7.1
|
|
01/21/11
|
3.414
|
93.4687
|
-7.7
|
|
01/28/11
|
3.323
|
94.1064
|
-7.1
|
|
02/04/11
|
3.640
|
91.750
|
-9.4
|
|
02/11/11
|
3.643
|
91.5319
|
-9.6
|
|
02/18/11
|
3.582
|
92.0157
|
-9.1
|
|
02/25/11
|
3.414
|
93.3676
|
-7.8
|
|
03/04/11
|
3.494
|
92.7235
|
-8.4
|
|
03/11/11
|
3.401
|
93.4727
|
-7.7
|
|
03/18/11
|
3.273
|
94.5115
|
-6.7
|
|
03/25/11
|
3.435
|
93.1935
|
-7.9
|
|
04/01/11
|
3.445
|
93.1129
|
-8.0
|
|
04/08/11
|
3.576
|
92.0635
|
-9.1
|
|
04/15/11
|
3.411
|
93.3874
|
-7.8
|
|
04/22/11
|
3.402
|
93.4646
|
-7.7
|
|
04/29/11
|
3.290
|
94.3759
|
-6.8
|
|
05/06/11
|
3.147
|
95.5542
|
-5.6
|
|
05/13/11
|
3.173
|
95.3387
|
-5.8
|
|
05/20/11
|
3.146
|
95.5625
|
-5.6
|
|
05/27/11
|
3.068
|
96.2089
|
-4.9
|
|
06/03/11
|
2.990
|
96.8672
|
-4.3
|
|
06/10/11
|
2.973
|
97.0106
|
-4.2
|
|
06/17/11
|
2.937
|
97.3134
|
-3.9
|
|
06/24/11
|
2.872
|
97.8662
|
-3.3
|
|
07/01/11
|
3.186
|
95.2281
|
-5.9
|
|
07/08/11
|
3.022
|
96.5957
|
-4.6
|
|
07/15/11
|
2.905
|
97.5851
|
-3.6
|
|
07/22/11
|
2.964
|
97.0847
|
-4.1
|
|
07/29/11
|
2.795
|
98.5258
|
-2.7
|
|
08/05/11
|
2.566
|
100.5175
|
-0.7
|
|
08/12/11
|
2.249
|
103.3504
|
2.1
|
|
08/19/11
|
2.066
|
105.270
|
3.7
|
|
08/26/11
|
2.202
|
103.7781
|
2.5
|
|
09/02/11
|
1.992
|
105.7137
|
4.4
|
|
09/09/11
|
1.918
|
106.4055
|
5.1
|
|
09/16/11
|
2.053
|
101.5434
|
0.3
|
|
09/23/11
|
1.826
|
107.2727
|
5.9
|
|
09/30/11
|
1.912
|
106.4602
|
5.1
|
|
10/07/11
|
2.078
|
104.9161
|
3.6
|
|
10/14/11
|
2.251
|
103.3323
|
2.0
|
|
10/21/11
|
2.220
|
103.6141
|
2.3
|
|
10/28/11
|
2.326
|
102.6540
|
1.4
|
|
11/04/11
|
2.066
|
105.0270
|
3.7
|
|
11/11/11
|
2.057
|
105.1103
|
3.8
|
|
11/18/11
|
2.003
|
105.6113
|
4.3
|
|
11/25/11
|
1.964
|
105.9749
|
4.7
|
|
12/02/11
|
2.042
|
105.2492
|
3.9
|
|
12/09/11
|
2.065
|
105.0363
|
3.7
|
|
12/16/11
|
1.847
|
107.0741
|
5.7
|
|
12/23/11
|
2.027
|
105.3883
|
4.1
|
|
12/30/11
|
1.871
|
106.8476
|
5.5
|
|
01/06/12
|
1.957
|
106.0403
|
4.7
|
|
01/13/12
|
1.869
|
106.8664
|
5.5
|
|
01/20/12
|
2.026
|
105.3976
|
4.1
|
|
01/27/12
|
1.893
|
106.6404
|
5.3
|
|
02/03/12
|
1.923
|
106.3586
|
5.0
|
|
02/10/12
|
1.974
|
105.8815
|
4.6
|
|
02/17/12
|
2.000
|
105.6392
|
4.3
|
|
02/24/12
|
1.977
|
105.8535
|
4.5
|
|
03/02/12
|
1.977
|
105.8535
|
4.5
|
|
03/09/12
|
2.031
|
105.3512
|
4.0
|
|
03/16/12
|
2.294
|
102.9428
|
1.7
|
|
03/23/12
|
2.234
|
103.4867
|
2.2
|
|
03/30/12
|
2.214
|
103.6687
|
2.4
|
|
04/06/12
|
2.058
|
105.1010
|
3.8
|
|
04/13/12
|
1.987
|
105.7603
|
4.4
|
|
04/20/12
|
1.959
|
106.0216
|
4.7
|
|
04/27/12
|
1.931
|
106.2836
|
5.0
|
|
05/04/12
|
1.876
|
106.8004
|
5.5
|
|
05/11/12
|
1.845
|
107.0930
|
5.8
|
|
05/18/12
|
1.714
|
108.3393
|
7.0
|
|
05/25/12
|
1.738
|
108.1098
|
6.8
|
|
06/01/12
|
1.454
|
110.8618
|
9.5
|
|
06/08/12
|
1.635
|
109.0989
|
7.7
|
|
06/15/12
|
1.584
|
109.5924
|
8.2
|
|
06/22/12
|
1.676
|
108.7039
|
7.4
|
|
06/29/12
|
1.648
|
108.9734
|
7.6
|
|
07/06/12
|
1.548
|
109.9423
|
8.6
|
|
07/13/12
|
1.49
|
110.5086
|
9.1
|
|
07/20/12
|
1.459
|
110.8127
|
9.4
|
|
07/27/12
|
1.544
|
109.9812
|
8.6
|
|
08/03/12
|
1.569
|
109.7380
|
8.4
|
|
08/10/12
|
1.658
|
108.8771
|
7.5
|
|
08/17/12
|
1.814
|
107.3864
|
6.1
|
|
08/24/12
|
1.684
|
108.6270
|
7.3
|
|
08/31/12
|
1.543
|
109.9910
|
8.6
|
|
9/7/12
|
1.668
|
108.7808
|
7.4
|
|
9/14/12
|
1.863
|
106.9230
|
5.6
|
|
9/21/12
|
1.753
|
107.9666
|
6.6
|
|
9/28/12
|
1.631
|
109.1375
|
7.8
|
|
10/05/12
|
1.737
|
108.1193
|
6.8
|
|
10/12/12
|
1.663
|
108.8290
|
7.5
|
|
10/19/12
|
1.766
|
107.8426
|
6.5
|
|
10/26/12
|
1.748
|
108.0143
|
6.7
|
|
11/02/12
|
1.715
|
108.3297
|
7.0
|
|
11/09/12
|
1.614
|
109.3018
|
7.9
|
|
11/16/12
|
1.584
|
109.5924
|
8.2
|
|
11/23/12
|
1.691
|
108.5598
|
7.2
|
|
11/30/12
|
1.612
|
109.3211
|
7.9
|
|
12/7/12
|
1.625
|
109.1954
|
7.8
|
|
12/14/12
|
1.704
|
108.4351
|
7.1
|
|
12/21/12
|
1.770
|
107.8045
|
6.5
|
|
12/28/12
|
1.699
|
108.4831
|
7.1
|
|
1/4/13
|
1.898
|
106.5934
|
5.3
|
|
1/11/13
|
1.862
|
106.9324
|
5.6
|
|
1/18/13
|
1.840
|
107.1403
|
5.8
|
|
1/25/13
|
1.947
|
106.1338
|
4.8
|
|
2/1/13
|
2.024
|
105.4161
|
4.1
|
|
2/8/13
|
1.949
|
106.1151
|
4.8
|
|
2/15/13
|
2.007
|
105.5741
|
4.3
|
|
2/22/13
|
1.967
|
105.9469
|
4.6
|
|
3/1/13
|
1.842
|
107.1213
|
5.8
|
|
3/8/13
|
2.056
|
105.1195
|
3.8
|
|
3/15/13
|
1.992
|
105.7137
|
4.4
|
|
03/22/13
|
1.931
|
106.2836
|
5.0
|
|
03/29/13
|
1.847
|
107.0741
|
5.7
|
|
04/05/13
|
1.706
|
108.4160
|
7.1
|
|
04/12/13
|
1.719
|
108.2914
|
6.9
|
|
04/19/13
|
1.702
|
108.4543
|
7.1
|
|
04/26/13
|
1.663
|
108.8290
|
7.5
|
|
05/3/13
|
1.742
|
108.2436
|
6.9
|
|
05/10/13
|
1.896
|
106.6122
|
5.3
|
|
05/17/13
|
1.952
|
106.0870
|
4.8
|
|
05/24/13
|
2.009
|
105.5555
|
4.2
|
|
05/31/13
|
2.132
|
104.5015
|
3.2
|
|
06/07/13
|
2.174
|
104.0338
|
2.7
|
|
06/14/13
|
2.125
|
104.4831
|
3.2
|
|
06/21/13
|
2.542
|
100.7288
|
-0.5
|
|
06/28/13
|
2.486
|
101.2240
|
0.0
|
|
07/5/13
|
2.734
|
99.0519
|
-2.2
|
|
07/12/13
|
2.585
|
100.3505
|
-0.9
|
|
07/19/13
|
2.480
|
101.2772
|
0.0
|
|
07/26/13
|
2.565
|
100.5263
|
-0.7
|
|
08/2/13
|
2.597
|
100.2452
|
-1.0
|
|
8/9/13
|
2.579
|
100.4032
|
-0.8
|
|
8/16/13
|
2.829
|
98.2339
|
-3.0
|
|
8/23/13
|
2.818
|
98.3283
|
-2.9
|
|
8/30/13
|
2.784
|
98.6205
|
-2.6
|
|
9/6/13
|
2.941
|
97.2795
|
-3.9
|
|
9/13/13
|
2.890
|
97.7128
|
-3.5
|
|
9/20/13
|
2.734
|
99.0519
|
-2.2
|
|
9/27/13
|
2.626
|
99.9913
|
-1.3
|
|
10/4/13
|
2.645
|
99.8253
|
-1.4
|
|
10/11/13
|
2.688
|
99.4508
|
-1.8
|
|
10/18/13
|
2.588
|
100.3242
|
-0.9
|
|
10/25/13
|
2.507
|
101.0380
|
-0.2
|
|
11/1/13
|
2.622
|
100.0262
|
-1.2
|
|
11/8/13
|
2.750
|
98.9136
|
-2.3
|
|
11/15/13
|
2.704
|
99.3118
|
-1.9
|
|
11/22/13
|
2.746
|
98.9482
|
-2.3
|
|
11/29/13
|
2.743
|
98.9741
|
-2.3
|
|
12/6/13
|
2.858
|
97.9858
|
-3.2
|
|
12/13/13
|
2.865
|
97.9260
|
-3.3
|
|
12/20/13
|
2.891
|
97.7043
|
-3.5
|
|
12/27/13
|
3.004
|
96.7472
|
-4.5
|
|
1/3/2014
|
2.999
|
96.7893
|
-4.4
|
|
1/10/14
|
2.858
|
97.9858
|
-3.2
|
|
1/17/14
|
2.818
|
98.3283
|
-2.9
|
|
1/24/14
|
2.720
|
99.1731
|
-2.1
|
|
1/31/14
|
2.645
|
99.8253
|
-1.4
|
|
2/7/14
|
2.681
|
99.5116
|
-1.7
|
|
2/14/14
|
2.743
|
98.9741
|
-2.3
|
|
2/21/14
|
2.730
|
99.0865
|
-2.1
|
|
2/28/14
|
2.655
|
99.7380
|
-1.5
|
|
3/7/14
|
2.792
|
98.5516
|
-2.7
|
|
3/14/14
|
2.654
|
99.7468
|
-1.5
|
|
3/21/14
|
2.743
|
98.9741
|
-2.3
|
|
3/28/14
|
2.721
|
99.1645
|
-2.1
|
|
4/4/14
|
2.724
|
99.1385
|
-2.1
|
|
4/11/14
|
2.628
|
99.9738
|
-1.3
|
|
4/18/14
|
2.724
|
99.1385
|
-2.1
|
|
4/25/14
|
2.668
|
99.6248
|
-1.6
|
|
5/2/14
|
2.583
|
100.3681
|
-0.9
|
|
5/9/14
|
2.624
|
100.0088
|
-1.2
|
|
5/16/14
|
2.520
|
100.9320
|
-0.3
|
|
5/23/14
|
2.532
|
100.8171
|
-0.4
|
|
5/30/14
|
2.473
|
101.3394
|
0.1
|
|
6/6/2014
|
2.598
|
100.2364
|
-1.0
|
|
6/13/14
|
2.605
|
100.1751
|
-1.1
|
|
6/20/14
|
2.609
|
00.1400
|
-1.1
|
|
6/27/14
|
2.536
|
100.7818
|
-0.05
|
|
7/4/14
|
2.641
|
99.8602
|
-1.4
|
|
7/11/14
|
2.516
|
100.9584
|
-0.3
|
|
7/18/14
|
2.484
|
101.2417
|
0.0
|
|
7/25/14
|
2.464
|
101.4193
|
0.2
|
|
8/1/14
|
2.497
|
101.1265
|
-0.1
|
|
8/8/14
|
2.420
|
101.8111
|
0.5
|
|
8/15/14
|
2.341
|
102.5190
|
1.2
|
|
8/22/14
|
2.399
|
101.9988
|
0.7
|
|
8/29/14
|
2.342
|
102.5100
|
1.2
|
|
9/5/14
|
2.457
|
101.4815
|
0.2
|
|
9/12/14
|
2.606
|
10.1663
|
-1.1
|
|
9/19/14
|
2.576
|
100.4296
|
-0.8
|
|
9/26/14
|
2.527
|
100.8612
|
-0.4
|
|
10/03/14
|
2.437
|
101.6595
|
0.4
|
|
10/10/14
|
2.292
|
102.9609
|
1.7
|
|
10/17/14
|
2.197
|
103.8237
|
2.5
|
|
10/24/14
|
2.263
|
103.2234
|
1.9
|
|
10/31/14
|
2.332
|
102.6000
|
1.3
|
|
11/07/14
|
2.302
|
102.8705
|
1.6
|
|
11/14/14
|
2.319
|
102.7171
|
1.4
|
|
11/21/14
|
2.307
|
102.8254
|
1.5
|
|
11/28/14
|
2.165
|
104.1162
|
2.8
|
|
12/5/14
|
2.306
|
102.8344
|
1.6
|
|
12/12/14
|
2.086
|
104.8423
|
3.5
|
|
12/19/14
|
2.185
|
103.9333
|
2.6
|
|
12/26/14
|
2.248
|
103.3595
|
2.1
|
|
01/02/15
|
2.126
|
104.4739
|
3.2
|
|
01/09/15
|
1.973
|
105.8909
|
4.6
|
|
01/16/15
|
1.826
|
107.2727
|
5.9
|
|
01/23/15
|
1.804
|
107.4813
|
6.1
|
|
01/30/15
|
1.683
|
108.6367
|
7.3
|
|
02/06/15
|
1.941
|
106.1899
|
4.9
|
|
02/13/15
|
2.043
|
105.2399
|
3.9
|
|
02/20/15
|
2.119
|
104.5383
|
3.2
|
|
02/27/15
|
2.016
|
105.4905
|
4.2
|
|
03/06/15
|
2.238
|
103.4503
|
2.2
|
|
03/13/15
|
2.103
|
104.6856
|
3.4
|
|
03/20/15
|
1.927
|
106.3211
|
5.0
|
|
03/27/15
|
1.951
|
106.0964
|
4.8
|
|
04/02/15
|
1.911
|
106.4712
|
5.1
|
|
04/10/15
|
1.950
|
106.1057
|
4.8
|
|
04/17/15
|
1.864
|
106.9136
|
5.6
|
|
04/24/15
|
1.917
|
106.4149
|
5.1
|
|
05/01/15
|
2.118
|
104.5475
|
3.2
|
|
05/08/15
|
2.153
|
104.2261
|
2.9
|
|
05/15/15
|
2.136
|
104.3821
|
3.1
|
|
05/22/15
|
2.211
|
103.6961
|
2.4
|
|
05/29/15
|
2.092
|
104.7869
|
3.5
|
|
06/05/15
|
2.400
|
101.9898
|
0.7
|
|
06/12/15
|
2.388
|
102.0972
|
0.8
|
|
06/19/15
|
2.270
|
103.1599
|
1.9
|
|
06/26/15
|
2.473
|
101.3394
|
0.1
|
|
07/03/15
|
2.383
|
102.1420
|
0.9
|
|
07/10/15
|
2.414
|
101.8647
|
0.6
|
|
07/17/15
|
2.346
|
102.4740
|
1.2
|
|
07/24/15
|
2.268
|
103.1781
|
1.9
|
|
07/31/15
|
2.207
|
103.7325
|
2.4
|
|
08/07/15
|
2.164
|
104.1254
|
2.8
|
|
08/14/15
|
2.196
|
103.8328
|
2.5
|
|
08/21/15
|
2.052
|
105.1565
|
3.9
|
|
08/28/15
|
2.182
|
103.9607
|
2.7
|
|
09/04/15
|
2.127
|
104.4647
|
3.2
|
|
09/11/15
|
2.181
|
103.9698
|
2.7
|
|
09/18/15
|
2.131
|
104.4280
|
3.1
|
|
09/25/15
|
2.168
|
104.0887
|
2.8
|
|
10/02/15
|
1.988
|
105.7510
|
4.4
|
|
10/09/15
|
2.096
|
104.7501
|
3.4
|
|
10/16/15
|
2.024
|
105.4161
|
4.1
|
|
10/23/15
|
2.083
|
104.8700
|
3.6
|
|
10/30/15
|
2.150
|
104.2536
|
3.0
|
|
11/06/15
|
2.332
|
102.6000
|
1.3
|
|
11/13/15
|
2.278
|
103.0875
|
1.8
|
|
11/20/15
|
2.260
|
103.2506
|
2.0
|
|
11/27/15
|
2.223
|
103.5868
|
2.3
|
|
12/04/15
|
2.276
|
103.1056
|
1.8
|
|
12/11/15
|
2.134
|
104.4004
|
3.1
|
|
12/18/15
|
2.197
|
103.8237
|
2.5
|
|
12/25/15
|
2.242
|
103.4140
|
2.1
|
|
01/01/16
|
2.269
|
103.1690
|
1.9
|
|
01/08/16
|
2.135
|
104.3913
|
3.1
|
|
01/15/16
|
2.036
|
105.3048
|
4.0
|
|
01/22/15
|
2.048
|
105.1936
|
3.9
|
|
01/29/16
|
1.923
|
106.3586
|
5.0
|
|
02/05/16
|
1.848
|
107.0646
|
5.7
|
|
02/12/16
|
1.744
|
108.0525
|
6.7
|
|
02/19/16
|
1.748
|
108.0143
|
6.7
|
|
02/26/16
|
1.766
|
107.8426
|
6.5
|
|
03/04/16
|
1.884
|
106.7251
|
5.4
|
|
03/11/16
|
1.977
|
105.8535
|
4.5
|
|
03/18/16
|
1.871
|
106.8476
|
5.5
|
|
03/25/16
|
1.900
|
106.5746
|
5.3
|
|
04/01/16
|
1.795
|
107.5667
|
6.2
|
|
04/08/16
|
1.722
|
108.2627
|
6.9
|
|
04/15/16
|
1.752
|
107.9761
|
6.6
|
|
04/22/16
|
1.886
|
106.7063
|
5.4
|
|
04/29/16
|
1.820
|
107.3296
|
6.0
|
|
05/06/16
|
1.780
|
107.7094
|
6.4
|
|
05/13/16
|
1.706
|
108.4160
|
7.1
|
|
05/20/16
|
1.849
|
107.0552
|
5.7
|
|
05/27/16
|
1.851
|
107.0363
|
5.7
|
|
06/03/16
|
1.704
|
108.4351
|
7.1
|
|
06/10/16
|
1.638
|
109.0699
|
7.7
|
|
06/17/16
|
1.618
|
109.2631
|
7.9
|
|
06/24/16
|
1.575
|
109.6797
|
8.3
|
|
07/01/16
|
1.443
|
110.9700
|
9.6
|
|
07/08/16
|
1.366
|
111.7306
|
10.3
|
|
07/15/16
|
1.595
|
109.4857
|
8.1
|
|
07/22/16
|
1.567
|
109.7575
|
8.4
|
|
07/29/16
|
1.458
|
110.8225
|
9.4
|
|
08/05/16
|
1.583
|
109.6021
|
8.2
|
|
08/12/16
|
1.514
|
110.2739
|
8.9
|
|
08/19/16
|
1.580
|
109.6312
|
8.3
|
|
08/26/16
|
1.635
|
109.0989
|
7.7
|
|
09/02/16
|
1.597
|
109.4663
|
8.1
|
|
09/09/16
|
1.675
|
108.7135
|
7.4
|
|
09/16/16
|
1.699
|
108.4831
|
7.1
|
|
09/23/16
|
1.614
|
109.3018
|
7.9
|
|
09/30/16
|
1.602
|
109.4179
|
8.1
|
|
10/07/16
|
1.732
|
108.1671
|
6.8
|
|
10/14/16
|
1.791
|
107.6048
|
6.3
|
|
10/21/16
|
1.738
|
108.1098
|
6.8
|
|
10/28/16
|
1.843
|
107.1119
|
5.8
|
|
11/04/16
|
1.784
|
107.6173
|
6.3
|
|
11/11/16
|
2.152
|
104.2353
|
2.9
|
|
11/18/16
|
2.340
|
102.5280
|
1.3
|
|
11/25/16
|
2.358
|
102.3662
|
1.1
|
|
12/01/16
|
2.389
|
102.0883
|
0.8
|
|
12/09/16
|
2.466
|
101.4015
|
0.1
|
|
12/16/16
|
2.597
|
100.2452
|
-1.0
|
|
12/23/16
|
2.542
|
100.7289
|
-0.5
|
|
12/30/16
|
2.447
|
101.5705
|
0.3
|
|
01/06/17
|
2.416
|
101.8469
|
0.6
|
|
01/13/17
|
2.381
|
102.1599
|
0.9
|
|
01/20/17
|
2.466
|
101.4015
|
0.1
|
|
01/27/17
|
2.479
|
101.2861
|
0.0
|
|
02/03/17
|
2.488
|
101.2063
|
-0.1
|
|
02/10/17
|
2.408
|
101.9183
|
0.7
|
|
02/17/17
|
2.425
|
101.7665
|
0.5
|
|
02/24/17
|
2.314
|
102.7622
|
1.5
|
|
03/03/17
|
2.492
|
101.1708
|
-0.1
|
|
03/10/17
|
2.584
|
100.3593
|
-0.9
|
|
03/17/17
|
2.502
|
101.0823
|
-0.2
|
|
03/24/17
|
2.399
|
101.9888
|
0.7
|
|
03/31/17
|
2.396
|
102.0256
|
0.8
|
|
04/07/17
|
2.373
|
102.2316
|
1.0
|
|
04/14/17
|
2.234
|
103.4867
|
2.2
|
|
04/21/17
|
2.233
|
103.4958
|
2.2
|
|
04/28/17
|
2.286
|
103.0151
|
1.7
|
|
05/05/17
|
2.352
|
102.4201
|
1.1
|
|
05/12/17
|
2.333
|
102.5910
|
1.3
|
|
05/19/17
|
2.243
|
103.4049
|
2.1
|
|
05/26/17
|
2.247
|
103.3686
|
2.1
|
|
06/02/17
|
2.161
|
104.1528
|
2.9
|
|
06/09/17
|
2.199
|
103.8055
|
2.5
|
|
06/16/17
|
2.154
|
104.2170
|
2.9
|
|
06/23/17
|
2.144
|
104.3087
|
3.0
|
|
06/30/17
|
2.304
|
102.8525
|
1.6
|
|
07/07/17
|
2.393
|
102.0524
|
0.8
|
|
07/14/17
|
2.323
|
102.6811
|
1.4
|
|
07/21/17
|
2.233
|
103.4985
|
2.2
|
|
07/28/17
|
2.288
|
102.9970
|
1.7
|
|
08/04/17
|
2.268
|
103.1781
|
1.9
|
|
08/11/17
|
2.189
|
103.8968
|
2.6
|
|
08/18/17
|
2.196
|
103.8328
|
2.5
|
|
08/25/17
|
2.171
|
104.0613
|
2.8
|
|
09/01/17
|
2.157
|
101.2573
|
2.9
|
|
09/08/17
|
2.061
|
105.0733
|
3.8
|
|
09/15/17
|
2.201
|
103.7872
|
2.5
|
|
09/22/17
|
2.263
|
103.2234
|
1.9
|
|
09/29/17
|
2.327
|
102.6450
|
1.4
|
|
10/06/17
|
2.368
|
102.2765
|
1.0
|
|
10/13/17
|
2.278
|
103.0875
|
1.8
|
|
10/20/17
|
2.379
|
102.1778
|
0.9
|
|
10/27/17
|
2.423
|
101.7844
|
0.5
|
|
11/03/17
|
2.343
|
102.5010
|
1.2
|
|
11/10/17
|
2.404
|
101.9541
|
0.7
|
|
11/17/17
|
2.354
|
102.4021
|
1.1
|
|
11/24/17
|
3.343
|
102.5010
|
1.2
|
|
12/01/17
|
2.361
|
102.3393
|
1.1
|
|
12/08/17
|
2.383
|
102.1420
|
0.9
|
|
12/15/17
|
2.355
|
102.3932
|
1.1
|
|
12/22/17
|
2.487
|
101.2151
|
0.0
|
|
12/29/17
|
2.411
|
101.8915
|
0.6
|
|
01/05/18
|
2.475
|
101.3216
|
0.1
|
|
01/12/18
|
2.550
|
100.6583
|
-0.6
|
|
01/19/18
|
2.638
|
99.8864
|
-1.4
|
|
01/26/18
|
2.661
|
99.6857
|
-1.6
|
|
02/02/18
|
2.848
|
98.0713
|
-3.1
|
|
02/09/18
|
2.830
|
98.2254
|
-3.0
|
|
02/16/18
|
2.877
|
97.8236
|
-3.4
|
|
02/23/18
|
2.870
|
97.8833
|
-3.3
|
|
03/02/18
|
2.855
|
98.0114
|
-3.2
|
|
03/09/18
|
2.893
|
97.6872
|
-3.5
|
|
03/16/18
|
2.845
|
98.0969
|
-3.1
|
|
03/23/18
|
2.826
|
98.2597
|
-3.0
|
|
03/30/18
|
2.739
|
99.0087
|
-2.2
|
|
04/06/18
|
2.778
|
98.6721
|
-2.6
|
|
04/13/18
|
2.825
|
98.2682
|
-3.0
|
|
04/20/18
|
2.953
|
97.1778
|
-4.0
|
|
04/27/18
|
2.955
|
97.1609
|
-4.1
|
|
05/04/18
|
2.943
|
97.2625
|
-3.9
|
|
05/11/18
|
2.970
|
97.0340
|
-4.2
|
|
05/18/18
|
3.065
|
96.2350
|
-5.0
|
|
05/25/18
|
2.928
|
97.3897
|
-3.8
|
|
06/01/18
|
2.889
|
97.7213
|
-3.5
|
|
06/08/18
|
2.938
|
97.3049
|
-3.9
|
|
06/15/18
|
2.922
|
97.4406
|
-3.8
|
|
06/22/18
|
2.902
|
97.6106
|
-3.6
|
|
06/29/18
|
2.850
|
98.0542
|
-3.2
|
|
07/06/18
|
2.821
|
98.3025
|
-2.9
|
|
07/13/18
|
2.830
|
98.2254
|
-3.0
|
|
07/20/18
|
2.890
|
97.7128
|
-3.5
|
|
07/27/18
|
2.959
|
97.1270
|
-4.1
|
|
08/03/18
|
2.952
|
97.1863
|
-4.0
|
|
08/10/18
|
2.859
|
97.9772
|
-3.2
|
|
08/17/18
|
2.870
|
97.8833
|
-3.3
|
|
08/24/18
|
2.823
|
98.2854
|
-2.9
|
|
08/31/18
|
2.850
|
98.0542
|
-3.2
|
|
09/07/18
|
2.936
|
97.3218
|
-3.9
|
|
08/14/18
|
2.987
|
96.8905
|
-4.3
|
|
09/21/18
|
3.067
|
96.2182
|
-5.0
|
|
09/28/18
|
3.055
|
96.3187
|
-4.9
|
|
10/05/18
|
3.231
|
94.8567
|
-6.3
|
|
10/12/18
|
3.137
|
95.6344
|
-5.6
|
|
10/19/18
|
3.198
|
95.1289
|
-6.1
|
|
10/26/18
|
3.077
|
96.1346
|
-5.1
|
|
11/02/18
|
3.216
|
94.9803
|
-6.2
|
|
11/09/18
|
3.188
|
95.2115
|
-6.0
|
|
11/16/18
|
3.075
|
96.1513
|
-5.0
|
|
11/23/18
|
3.039
|
96.4529
|
-4.7
|
|
11/30/18
|
3.014
|
96.6630
|
-4.5
|
|
12/07/18
|
2.848
|
98.0713
|
-3.1
|
|
12/14/18
|
2.892
|
97.6957
|
-3.5
|
|
12/21/18
|
2.791
|
98.5602
|
-2.7
|
|
12/28/18
|
2.736
|
99.0346
|
-2.2
|
|
01/04/19
|
2.568
|
99.7119
|
-1.5
|
|
01/11/19
|
2.700
|
99.3466
|
-1.9
|
|
01/18/19
|
2.780
|
98.6549
|
-2.6
|
|
01/25/19
|
2.750
|
98.9136
|
-2.3
|
|
02/01/19
|
2.691
|
99.4247
|
-1.8
|
|
02/08/19
|
2.636
|
99.039
|
-1.3
|
|
02/15/19
|
2.667
|
99.6335
|
-1.6
|
|
02/22/19
|
2.652
|
99.7642
|
-1.5
|
|
03/01/19
|
2.747
|
98.9395
|
-2.3
|
|
03/08/19
|
2.630
|
99.9563
|
-1.3
|
|
03/15/19
|
2.593
|
100.2803
|
-1.0
|
|
03/22/19
|
2.453
|
101.5171
|
0.3
|
|
03/29/19
|
2.416
|
101.8469
|
0.6
|
|
04/05/19
|
2.503
|
101.0734
|
-0.2
|
|
04/12/19
|
2.557
|
100.5967
|
-0.7
|
|
04/19/19
|
2.564
|
100.5351
|
-0.7
|
|
04/26/19
|
2.505
|
101.0557
|
-0.2
|
|
05/03/19
|
2.526
|
100.8700
|
-0.4
|
|
05/10/19
|
2.457
|
101.4815
|
0.2
|
|
05/17/19
|
2.398
|
102.0077
|
0.7
|
|
05/24/19
|
2.323
|
102.6811
|
1.4
|
|
05/31/19
|
2.141
|
104.3362
|
3.0
|
|
06/07/19
|
2.082
|
104.8792
|
3.6
|
|
06/14/19
|
2.095
|
104.7593
|
3.5
|
|
06/21/19
|
2.062
|
105.0640
|
3.8
|
|
06/28/19
|
2.006
|
105.5834
|
4.3
|
|
07/05/19
|
2.045
|
105.2214
|
3.9
|
|
07/12/19
|
2.107
|
104.6487
|
3.3
|
|
07/19/19
|
2.049
|
105.1843
|
3.9
|
|
07/26/19
|
2.080
|
104.8977
|
3.6
|
|
08/02/19
|
1.860
|
106.9513
|
5.6
|
|
08/09/19
|
1.736
|
108.1289
|
6.8
|
|
08/16/19
|
1.540
|
110.0202
|
8.7
|
|
08/23/19
|
1.526
|
110.1567
|
8.8
|
|
08/30/19
|
1.504
|
110.3716
|
9.0
|
|
09/06/19
|
1.554
|
109.8839
|
8.5
|
|
09/13/19
|
1.894
|
106.6310
|
5.3
|
|
09/20/19
|
1.754
|
107.9570
|
6.6
|
|
09/27/19
|
1.676
|
108.7039
|
7.4
|
|
10/04/19
|
1.515
|
110.2641
|
8.9
|
|
10/11/19
|
1.753
|
107.9666
|
6.6
|
|
10/18/19
|
1.749
|
108.0047
|
6.7
|
|
10/25/19
|
1.800
|
107.5193
|
6.2
|
|
11/01/19
|
1.716
|
108.3202
|
7.0
|
|
11/08/19
|
1.929
|
106.3024
|
5.0
|
|
11/15/19
|
1.835
|
107.1876
|
5.9
|
|
11/22/19
|
1.773
|
107.7760
|
6.4
|
|
11/29/19
|
1.782
|
107.6903
|
6.4
|
|
12/06/19
|
1.838
|
107.1592
|
5.8
|
|
12/13/19
|
1.820
|
107.3296
|
6.0
|
|
12/20/19
|
1.915
|
106.4337
|
5.1
|
|
12/27/19
|
1.869
|
106.8664
|
5.5
|
|
01/03/20
|
1.791
|
107.6048
|
6.3
|
|
01/10/20
|
1.826
|
107.2727
|
5.9
|
|
01/17/20
|
1.836
|
107.1781
|
5.8
|
|
01/24/20
|
1.678
|
108.6847
|
9.3
|
|
01/31/20
|
1.521
|
110.2055
|
8.8
|
|
02/07/20
|
1.579
|
109.6409
|
8.3
|
|
02/14/20
|
1.587
|
109.5633
|
8.2
|
|
02/21/20
|
1.473
|
110.6753
|
9.3
|
|
02/28/20
|
1.148
|
113.9161
|
12.5
|
|
03/06/20
|
0.709
|
118.4650
|
17.0
|
|
03/13/20
|
0.955
|
115.8912
|
14.5
|
|
03/20/20
|
0.949
|
115.9533
|
14.5
|
|
03/27/20
|
0.731
|
118.2322
|
16.8
|
|
04/03/20
|
0.592
|
119.7116
|
18.2
|
|
04/10/20
|
0.729
|
118.2536
|
16.8
|
|
04/17/20
|
0.657
|
119.0192
|
17.5
|
|
04/20/20
|
0.598
|
119.6473
|
18.2
|
|
05/01/20
|
0.637
|
119.2304
|
17.7
|
|
05/08/20
|
0.679
|
118.7832
|
17.3
|
|
05/15/20
|
0.641
|
119.1877
|
17.7
|
|
05/22/20
|
0.661
|
118.9747
|
17.5
|
|
05/29/20
|
0.649
|
119.1025
|
17.6
|
|
06/05/20
|
0.912
|
116.3365
|
14.9
|
|
06/12/20
|
0.700
|
118.5604
|
17.1
|
|
06/19/20
|
0.686
|
118.7089
|
17.2
|
|
06/26/20
|
0.643
|
119.1664
|
17.7
|
|
07/03/20
|
0.673
|
118.8470
|
17.4
|
|
07/10/20
|
0.632
|
119.2838
|
17.8
|
|
07/17/20
|
0.627
|
119.3372
|
17.9
|
|
07/24/20
|
0.587
|
119.7652
|
18.3
|
|
07/31/20
|
0.540
|
120.2704
|
18.8
|
Note: price is calculated for
an artificial 10-year note paying semi-annual coupon and maturing in ten years
using the actual yields traded on the dates and the coupon of 2.625% on
11/04/10
Source:
Table VI-7C provides additional
information required for understanding the deficit/debt situation of the United
States. The table is divided into four parts: Treasury budget in the 2020
fiscal year beginning on Oct 1, 2019 and ending on Sep 30, 2020; federal fiscal
data for the years from 2009 to 2019; federal fiscal data for the years from
2005 to 2008; and Treasury debt held by the public from 2005 to 2019. Receipts
decreased 13.4 percent in the cumulative fiscal year 2020 ending in Jun 2020
relative to the cumulative in fiscal year 2019. Individual income taxes
decreased 24.3 percent relative to the same fiscal period a year earlier.
Outlays increased 49.1 percent relative to a year earlier. There are also
receipts, outlays, deficit and debt for fiscal years 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016,
2017, 2018 and 2019. In fiscal year 2019, the deficit reached $984.4 billion or
4.6 percent of GDP. Outlays of 4,446.6 billion were 21.0 percent of GDP and
receipts of $3,462.2 billion were 16.3 percent of GDP. It is quite difficult
for the US to raise receipts above 18 percent of GDP. Total revenues of the US
from 2009 to 2012 accumulate to $9021.2 billion, or $9.0 trillion, while
expenditures or outlays accumulate to $14,104.5 billion, or $14.1 trillion,
with the deficit accumulating to $5083.3 billion, or $5.1 trillion. Revenues
decreased 6.5 percent from $9652.5 billion in the four years from 2005 to 2008
to $9021.2 billion in the years from 2009 to 2012. Decreasing
revenues were caused by the global recession from IVQ2007 (Dec) to IIQ2009
(Jun) and by growth of only 1.2 percent on average in the cyclical expansion
from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2020. In contrast, the expansion from IQ1983 to IVQ1993 was
at the average annual growth rate of 3.7 percent and at 7.9 percent from IQ1983
to IVQ1983 (Section I and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/06/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html).
Because of mediocre GDP growth, there are 41.3 million unemployed or
underemployed in the United States for an effective unemployment/underemployment
rate of 23.9 percent (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/07/increase-of-total-nonfarm-payroll-jobs.html and
earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/06/creation-of-three-million-private.html).
Weakness of growth and employment creation is analyzed in II Collapse of United
States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/07/contraction-of-household-wealth-by-14.html).
In contrast with the decline of revenue, outlays or expenditures increased 30.1
percent from $10,838.2 billion, or $10.8 trillion, in the four years from 2005
to 2008, to $14,104.5 billion, or $14.1 trillion, in the four years from 2009
to 2012. Increase in expenditures by 30.1 percent while revenue declined by 6.5
percent caused the increase in the federal deficit from $1185.8 billion in
2005-2008 to $5083.3 billion in 2009-2012. Federal revenue was 14.8 percent of
GDP on average in the years from 2009 to 2012, which is well below 17.3 percent
of GDP on average from 1962 to 2019. Federal outlays were 23.3 percent of GDP
on average from 2009 to 2012, which is well above 20.1 percent of GDP on
average from 1962 to 2019. The lower part of Table VI-7C shows that debt held
by the public swelled from $5803 billion in 2008 to $13,117 billion in 2015, by
$7314 billion or 126.0 percent. Debt held by the public as percent of GDP or
economic activity jumped from 39.4 percent in 2008 to 79.2 percent in 2019,
which is well above the average of 41.7 percent from 1962 to 2019. The United
States faces tough adjustment because growth is unlikely to recover, creating
limits on what can be obtained by increasing revenues, while continuing stress
of social programs restricts what can be obtained by reducing expenditures. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO)
provides a preliminary estimate of the impact of Public Law 116-136 of Mar 27,
2020, CARES Act or Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act (https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-04/hr748.pdf). This preliminary estimate finds that
the CARES Act “will increase federal deficits by about $1.8 trillion over the
2020-2030 period (https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-04/hr748.pdf).
|
Jun
2020
|
Fiscal
Year 2020
|
Fiscal
Year 2019
|
∆%
|
|
Receipts
|
2,260,069
|
2,608,855
|
-13.4
|
|
Outlays
|
5,004,372
|
3,355,971
|
49.1
|
|
Deficit
|
-2,744,303
|
-747,116
|
|
|
Individual
Income Tax
|
984,593
|
1,301,477
|
-24.3
|
|
Corporation
Income Tax
|
92,106
|
164,355
|
-44.0
|
|
Social
Insurance
|
723,785
|
697,303
|
5.1
|
|
|
Receipts
|
Outlays
|
Deficit
(-), Surplus (+)
|
|
$
Billions
|
|||
|
Fiscal
Year 2019
|
3,462.2
|
4,446.6
|
-984.4
|
|
%
GDP
|
16.3
|
21.0
|
-4.6
|
|
Fiscal
Year 2018
|
3,329.9
|
4,109.0
|
-779.1
|
|
%
GDP
|
16.4
|
20.2
|
-3.8
|
|
Fiscal
Year 2017
|
3,316.2
|
3,981.6
|
-665.4
|
|
%
GDP
|
17.2
|
20.6
|
-3.5
|
|
Fiscal
Year 2016
|
3,268.0
|
3,852.6
|
-584.7
|
|
%
GDP
|
17.6
|
20.8
|
-3.2
|
|
Fiscal
Year 2015
|
3,249.9
|
3,691.8
|
-442.0
|
|
%
GDP
|
18.0
|
20.4
|
-2.4
|
|
Fiscal
Year 2014
|
3,021.5
|
3,506.3
|
-484.8
|
|
%
GDP
|
17.4
|
20.2
|
-2.8
|
|
Fiscal
Year 2013
|
2,775.1
|
3,454.9
|
-679.8
|
|
%
GDP
|
16.7
|
20.8
|
-4.1
|
|
Fiscal
Year 2012
|
2,450.0
|
3,526.6
|
-1,076.6
|
|
%
GDP
|
15.3
|
22.0
|
-6.7
|
|
Fiscal
Year 2011
|
2,303.5
|
3,603.1
|
-1,299.6
|
|
%
GDP
|
15.0
|
23.4
|
-8.4
|
|
Fiscal
Year 2010
|
2,162.7
|
3,457.1
|
-1,294.4
|
|
%
GDP
|
14.6
|
23.3
|
-8.7
|
|
Fiscal
Year 2009
|
2,105.0
|
3,517.7
|
-1,412.7
|
|
%
GDP
|
14.6
|
24.4
|
-9.8
|
|
Total
2009-2012
|
9,021.2
|
14,104.5
|
-5,083.3
|
|
Average
% GDP 2009-2012
|
14.8
|
23.3
|
-8.4
|
|
Fiscal
Year 2008
|
2,524.0
|
2,982.5
|
-458.6
|
|
%
GDP
|
17.1
|
20.2
|
-3.1
|
|
Fiscal
Year 2007
|
2,568.0
|
2,728.7
|
-160.7
|
|
%
GDP
|
18.0
|
19.1
|
-1.1
|
|
Fiscal
Year 2006
|
2,406.9
|
2,655.1
|
-248.2
|
|
%
GDP
|
17.6
|
19.5
|
-1.8
|
|
Fiscal
Year 2005
|
2,153.6
|
2,472.0
|
-318.3
|
|
%
GDP
|
16.8
|
19.3
|
-2.5
|
|
Total
2005-2008
|
9,652.5
|
10,838.2
|
-1,185.8
|
|
Average
% GDP 2005-2008
|
17.4
|
19.5
|
-2.1
|
|
Debt
Held by the Public
|
Billions
of Dollars
|
Percent
of GDP
|
|
|
2005
|
4,592
|
35.8
|
|
|
2006
|
4,829
|
35.4
|
|
|
2007
|
5,035
|
35.2
|
|
|
2008
|
5,803
|
39.4
|
|
|
2009
|
7,545
|
52.3
|
|
|
2010
|
9,019
|
60.8
|
|
|
2011
|
10,128
|
65.8
|
|
|
2012
|
11,281
|
70.3
|
|
|
2013
|
11,983
|
72.2
|
|
|
2014
|
12,780
|
73.7
|
|
|
2015
|
13,117
|
72.5
|
|
|
2016
|
14,168
|
76.4
|
|
|
2017
|
14,666
|
76.0
|
|
|
2018
|
15,750
|
77.4
|
|
|
2019
|
16,803
|
79.2
|
|
https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/sm0184.aspx https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm806 CBO, The budget and economic outlook:
2018 to 2028. Washington, DC, Apr 9 https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53651
CBO, The budget and economic outlook: 2017-2027. Washington, DC,
Jan 24, 2017 https://www.cbo.gov/publication/52370 CBO, An update to the
budget and economic outlook: 2016 to 2026. Washington, DC, Aug 23, 2016.
CBO (2012NovMBR). CBO (2011AugBEO); Office of Management and
Budget 2011. Historical Tables. Budget of the US Government Fiscal Year 2011.
Washington, DC: OMB; CBO. 2011JanBEO. Budget and Economic Outlook. Washington,
DC, Jan. CBO. 2012AugBEO. Budget and Economic Outlook. Washington, DC, Aug 22.
CBO. 2012Jan31. Historical budget data. Washington, DC, Jan 31. CBO.
2012NovCDR. Choices for deficit reduction. Washington, DC. Nov. CBO.
2013HBDFeb5. Historical budget data—February 2013 baseline projections.
Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Feb 5. CBO. 2013HBDFeb5.
Historical budget data—February 2013 baseline projections. Washington, DC,
Congressional Budget Office, Feb 5. CBO (2013Aug12). 2013AugHBD. Historical
budget data—August 2013. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Aug. CBO,
Historical Budget Data—February 2014, Washington, DC, Congressional Budget
Office, Feb. CBO, Historical budget data—April 2014 release. Washington,
DC, Congressional Budget Office, Apr. Congressional Budget Office, August 2014
baseline: an update to the budget and economic outlook: 2014 to 2024.
Washington, DC, CBO, Aug 27, 2014. CBO, Monthly budget review: summary of
fiscal year 2014. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Nov 10, 2014.
CBO, The budget and economic outlook: 2015 to 2025. Washington, DC,
Congressional Budget Office, Jan 26, 2015.
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget_economic_data#3 https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget_economic_data#2
© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009,
2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020.
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