Nonfarm Hires Jump 64.7 Percent from 4.656 Million in Mar 2020 to 7.670
Million in Jun 2020, Higher by 16.8 Percent Than 6.564 Million in Jun 2019 In the Global
Recession, with Output in the US Reaching a High in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the Lockdown
of Economic Activity in the COVID-19 Event, Seventeen Million Fewer Full-Time
Jobs Relative to Working Population in the COVID-19 Event, Recovery Without
Hiring in the Lost
Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth Underperforming
Below Trend Worldwide, Youth Unemployment, Middle-Age Unemployment 190.6 Percent
Higher in Jul 2020 Than in Jul 2007 In the Global Recession, with Output in the
US Reaching a High in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the Lockdown
of Economic Activity in the COVID-19 Event, Increase of US Consumer Prices at
Annual Equivalent 7.4 Percent in Jul 2020 with Inflation Worldwide, Growth of
US Exports at 9.4 Percent in Jun 2020 and Imports at 4.7 Percent, World
Cyclical Slow Growth, and Government Intervention in Globalization: Part III
Carlos M. Pelaez
© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009,
2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020.
IA1 Hiring Collapse
IA2 Labor Underutilization
ICA3 Seventeen Million Fewer
Full-time Jobs
IA4 Theory and Reality of Cyclical Slow
Growth Not Secular Stagnation: Youth and Middle-Age Unemployment
IC United
States Inflation
IC Long-term US Inflation
ID Current US Inflation
II United States International Trade
III World Financial Turbulence
IV Global Inflation
V World Economic
Slowdown
VA United States
VB Japan
VC China
VD Euro Area
VE Germany
VF France
VG Italy
VH United Kingdom
VI Valuation of Risk
Financial Assets
VII Economic
Indicators
VIII Interest Rates
IX Conclusion
References
Appendixes
Appendix I The Great Inflation
IIIB Appendix on Safe
Haven Currencies
IIIC Appendix on
Fiscal Compact
IIID Appendix on
European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort
IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the
Debt Crisis
The United States is experiencing
high youth unemployment as in European economies. Table I-10 provides the
employment level for ages 16 to 24 years of age estimated by the Bureau of
Labor Statistics. On an annual basis, youth employment fell from 20.041 million
in 2006 to 17.362 million in 2011 or 2.679 million fewer youth jobs and to
17.834 million in 2012 or 2.207 million fewer jobs. Youth employment fell from
20.041 million in 2006 to 18.057 million in 2013 or 1.984 million fewer jobs.
Youth employment fell from 20.041 million in 2006 to 18.442 million in 2014 or
1.599 million. Youth employment fell from 20.041 million in 2006 to 18.756
Youth employment fell from 20.041 million in 2006 to 18.756 million in 2015 or
1.285 million. Youth employment fell from 20.041 million in 2006 to 18.992
million in 2016 or 1.049 million. Youth employment fell from 20.041 million in
2006 to 19.206 million in 2017 or 0.835 million. Youth employment fell from
20.041 million in 2006 to 19.177 million in 2017 or 0.864 million. The level of
youth jobs fell from 20.129 million in Dec 2006 to 18.347 million in Dec 2014
for 1.782 million fewer youth jobs. The level of youth jobs fell from 20.129
million in Dec 2006 to 18.720 million in Dec 2015 or 1.409 million fewer jobs.
Youth jobs fell from 20.129 million in Dec 2006 to 18.830 million in Dec 2016
or 1.299 million. Youth jobs fell from 21.167 million in Aug 2006 to 20.038
million in Aug 2017 or 1.129 million. During the seasonal peak months of youth
employment in the summer from Jun to Aug, youth employment has fallen by more
than two million jobs relative to 21.167 million in Aug 2006 to 18.972 million
in Aug 2014 for 2.195 million fewer jobs. Youth employment fell from 21.914
million in Jul 2006 to 20.085 million in Jul 2014 for 1.829 million fewer youth
jobs. The number of youth jobs fell from 21.268 million in Jun 2006 million to
19.421 million in Jun 2014 or 1.847 million fewer youth jobs. The number of
jobs ages 16 to 24 years fell from 21.167 million in Aug 2006 to 18.636 million
in Aug 2013 or by 2.531 million. The number of youth jobs fell from 19.604
million in Sep 2006 to 18.043 million in Sep 2013 or 1.561 million fewer youth
jobs. The number of youth jobs fell from 20.129 million in Dec 2006 to 18.106
million in Dec 2013 or 2.023 million fewer jobs. The civilian
noninstitutional population ages 16 to 24 years increased from 37.443 million
in Jul 2007 to 38.861 million in Jul 2013 or by 1.418 million while the number
of jobs for ages 16 to 24 years fell by 2.230 million from 21.914 million in
Jul 2006 to 19.684 million in Jul 2013. The civilian noninstitutional
population for ages 16 to 24 years increased from 37.455 million in Aug 2007 to
38.841 million in Aug 2013 or by 1.386 million while the number of youth jobs
fell by 1.777 million. The civilian noninstitutional population increased from
37.467 million in Sep 2007 to 38.822 million in Sep 2013 or by 1.355 million
while the number of youth jobs fell by 1.455 million. The civilian
noninstitutional population increased from 37.480 million in Oct 2007 to 38.804
million in Oct 2013 or by 1.324 million while the number of youth jobs
decreased 1.877 million from Oct 2006 to Oct 2013. The civilian
noninstitutional population increased from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 38.798
million in Nov 2013 or by 1.722 million while the number of youth jobs fell
1.799 million. The civilian noninstitutional population increased from 37.518
million in Dec 2007 to 38.790 million in Dec 2013 or by 1.272 million while the
number of youth jobs fell 2.023 million from Dec 2006 to Dec 2013. The youth
civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.488 million from 37.282
million in in Jan 2007 to 38.770 million in Jan 2014 while the number of youth
jobs fell 2.035 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population
increased 1.464 million from 37.302 in Feb 2007 to 38.766 million in Feb 2014
while the number of youth jobs decreased 2.058 million. The civilian
noninstitutional population increased 1.437 million from 37.324 million in Mar
2007 to 38.761 million in Mar 2014 while jobs for ages 16 to 24 years decreased
1.599 million from 19.538 million in Mar 2007 to 17.939 million in Mar 2014.
The civilian noninstitutional population ages 16 to 24 years increased 1.410
million from 37.349 million in Apr 2007 to 38.759 million in Apr 2014 while the
number of youth jobs fell 1.347 million. The civilian noninstitutional
population increased 1.370 million from 37.379 million in May 2007 to 38.749 million
in May 2014 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.128 million. The
civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.330 million from 37.410
million in Jun 2007 to 38.740 million in Jun 2014 while the number of youth
jobs fell 1.847 million from 21.268 million in Jun 2006 to 19.421 million in
Jun 2014. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased by 1.292
million from 37.443 million in Jul 2007 to 38.735 million in Jul 2014 while the
number of youth jobs fell 1.632 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional
population increased from 37.445 million in Aug 2007 to 38.706 million in Aug
2014 or 1.251 million while the number of youth jobs fell 1.441 million. The
youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.652 million from 37.027
million in Sep 2006 to 38.679 million in Sep 2014 while the number of youth
jobs fell 1.500 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population
increased from 37.047 million in Oct 2006 to 38.650 million in Oct 2014 or
1.603 million while the number of youth jobs fell 1.072 million. The youth
civilian noninstitutional population increased from 37.076 million in Nov 2006
to 38.628 million in Nov 2014 or 1.552 million while the number of youth jobs
fell 1.327 million. The civilian noninstitutional population increased from
37.100 million in Dec 2006 to 38.606 million in Dec 2014 or 1.506 million while
the number of youth jobs fell 1.782 million. The civilian noninstitutional
population increased 1.971 million from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 38.732 million
in Jan 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.091 million. The civilian
noninstitutional population increased 1.914 million from 36.791 million in Feb
2006 to 38.705 million in Feb 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 0.960
million. The civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.858 million from
36.821 million in Mar 2006 to 38.679 million in Mar 2015 while the number of
youth jobs fell 1.215 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population
increased 1.800 million from 36.854 million in Apr 2006 to 38.654 million in
Apr 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.165 million. The youth civilian
noninstitutional population increased 1,733 million from 36.897 million in May
2006 to 38.630 million in May 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.060
million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.666 million
from 36.943 million in Jun 2006 to 38.609 million in Jun 2015 while the number
of youth jobs fell 1.479 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population
increased 1.600 million from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 38.589 million in
Jul 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.581 million. The youth civilian
noninstitutional population increased 1.548 million from 37.008 million in Aug
2006 to 38.556 million in Aug 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.590
million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1,498 million
from 37.027 million in Sep 2006 to 38.525 million in Sep 2015 while the number
of youth jobs fell 1.249 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional
population increased 1.444 million from 37.047 million in Oct 2006 to 38.491
million in Oct 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.199 million. The
youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.392 million from 37.076
million in Nov 2006 to 38.468 million in Nov 2015 while the number of youth
jobs fell 1.418 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population
increased 1.341 million from 37.100 million in Dec 2006 to 38.441 million in
Dec 2015 while the level of youth jobs 1.409 million. The youth civilian
noninstitutional population increased 1.734 million from 36.761 million in Jan
2006 to 38.495 million in Jan 2016 while the level of youth jobs fell 0.844
million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.698 million
from 36.791 million in Feb 2006 to 38.489 million in Feb 2016 while the number
of youth jobs fell 0.726 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional
population increased 1,662 million from 36.821 million in Mar 2006 to 38.483 million
in Mar 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 0.711 million. The youth
civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.626 million from 36.854
million in Apr 2006 to 38.480 million in Apr 2016 while the number of youth
jobs fell 0.895 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population
increased 1.571 million from 36.897 million in May 2006 to 38.468 million in
May 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 0.894 million. The youth civilian
noninstitutional population increased 1.516 million from 36.943 million in Jun
2006 to 38.459 million in Jun 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.301
million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.461 million
from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 38.450 million in Jul 2016 while the number
of youth jobs fell 1.458 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional
population increased 1.414 million from 37.008 million in Aug 2006 to 38.422
million in Aug 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.291 million. The
youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.368 million from 37.027
million in Sep 2006 to 38.395 million in Sep 2016 while the number of youth
jobs fell 0.911 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population
increased 1.320 million from 37.047 million in Oct 2006 to 38.367 million in
Oct 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.158 million. The youth civilian
noninstitutional population increased 1.283 million from 37.076 million in Nov
2006 to 38.359 million in Nov 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.102
million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.248 million
from 37.100 million in Dec 2006 to 38.348 million in Dec 2016 while the number
of youth jobs fell 1.299 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional
population increased 1.488 million from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 38.249
million in Jan 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.692 million. The
youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.440 million from 36.791
million in Feb 2006 to 38.231 million in Feb 2017 while the number of youth
jobs decreased 0.578 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population
increased 1.393 million from 36.821 million in Mar 2006 to 38.214 million in
Mar 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.377 million. The youth civilian
noninstitutional population increased 1.343 million from 36.854 million in Apr
2006 to 38.197 million in Apr 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased
0.458 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.284
million from 36.897 million in May 2006 to 38.181 million in May 2017 while the
number of youth jobs decreased 0.699 million. The youth civilian
noninstitutional population increased 1.223 million from 36.943 million in Jun
2006 to 38.166 million in Jun 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased
0.938 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.163
million from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 38.152 million in Jul 2017 while the
number of youth jobs decreased 1.024 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional
population increased 1.163 million from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 38.152
million in Jul 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.024 million. The
youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.120 million from 37.008
million in Aug 2006 to 38.128 million in Aug 2017 while the number of youth
jobs decreased 1.129 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population
increased 1.076 million from 37.027 million in Sep 2006 to 38.103 million in
Sep 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.485 million. The youth
civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.032 million from 37.047
million in Oct 2006 to 38.079 million in Oct 2017 while the number of youth
jobs decreased 0.852 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population
increased 0.984 million from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 38.060 million in
Nov 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.272 million. The youth
civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.938 million from 37.100
million in Dec 2006 to 38.038 million in Dec 2017 while the number of youth
jobs decreased 1.519 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population
increased 1.304 million from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 38.065 million in
Jan 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.500 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional
population increased 1.264 million from 36.791 million in Feb 2006 to 38.055
million in Feb 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.380 million. The
youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.225 million from 36.821
million in Mar 2006 to 38.046 million in Mar 2018 while the number of youth
jobs decreased 0.244 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population
increased 1.185 million from 36.854 million in Apr 2006 to 38.039 million in
Apr 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.533 million. The youth
civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.126 million from 36.897
million in May 2006 to 38.023 million in May 2018 while the number of youth
jobs decreased 0.785 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population
increased 1.066 million from 36.943 million in Jun 2006 to 38.009 million in
Jun 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.936 million. The youth
civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.008 million from 36.989
million in Jul 2006 to 37.997 million in Jul 2018 while the number of youth
jobs decreased 1.017 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population
increased 0.977 million from 37.008 million in Aug 2006 to 37.985 million in Aug
2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.795 million. The youth civilian
noninstitutional population increased 0.947 million from 37.027 million in Sep
2006 to 37.974 million in Sep 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased
0.818 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.915
million from 37.047 million in Oct 2006 to 37.962 million in Oct 2018 while the
number of youth jobs decreased 0.943 million. The youth civilian
noninstitutional population increased 0.876 million from 37.076 million in Nov
2006 to 37.952 million in Nov 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased
1.063 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.876
million from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 37.952 million in Nov 2018 while the
number of youth jobs decreased 1.063 million. The youth civilian
noninstitutional population increased 0.840 million from 37.100 million in Dec
2006 to 37.940 million in Dec 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased
1.354 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.038
million from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 37.799 million in Jan 2019 while the
number of youth jobs decreased 0.707 million. The youth civilian
noninstitutional population increased 0.996 million from 36.791 million in Feb
2006 to 37.787 million in Feb 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased
0.706 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.952
million from 36.821 million in Mar 2006 to 37.773 million in Mar 2019 while the
number of youth jobs decreased 0.479 million. The youth civilian
noninstitutional population increased 0.908 million from 36.854 million in Apr
2006 to 37.762 million in Apr 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased
0.620 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.853
million from 36.897 million in May 2006 to 37.750 million in May 2019 while the
number of youth jobs decreased 0.592 million. The youth civilian
noninstitutional population increased 0.795 million from 36.943 million in Jun
2006 to 37.738 million in Jun 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased
0.629 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.740
million from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 37.729 million in Jul 2019 while the
number of youth jobs decreased 0.718 million. The youth civilian
noninstitutional population increased 0.722 million from 37.008 million in Aug
2006 to 37.730 million in Aug 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased
1.269 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.705
million from 37.027 million in Sep 2006 to 37.732 million in Sep 2019 while the
number of youth jobs decreased 0.475 million. The youth civilian
noninstitutional population increased 0.687 million from 37.047 million in Oct
2006 to 37.734 million in Oct 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased
0.466 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.650
million from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 37.726 million in Nov 2019 while the
number of youth jobs decreased 0.811 million. The youth civilian
noninstitutional population increased 0.617 million from 37.100 million in Dec
2006 to 37.717 million in Dec 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased
1.152 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.758
million from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 37.519 million in Jan 2020 while the
number of youth jobs decreased 0.357 million. The youth civilian
noninstitutional population increased 0.721 million from 36.791 million in Feb
2006 to 37.512 million in Feb 2020 while the number of youth jobs decreased
0.100 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.683
million from 36.821 million in Mar 2006 to 37.504 million in Mar 2020 while the
number of youth jobs decreased 1.231 million. The youth civilian
noninstitutional population increased 0.643 million from 36.854 million in Apr
2006 to 37.497 million in Apr 2020 while the number of youth jobs decreased
6.294 million in the global recession, with output in the US reaching
a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The youth civilian
noninstitutional population increased 0.591 million from 36.897 million in May
2006 to 37.488 million in May 2020 while the number of youth jobs decreased
5.417 million in the global recession, with output in the US reaching
a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The youth civilian
noninstitutional population increased 0.536 million from 36.943 million in Jun
2006 to 37.479 million in Jun 2020 while the number of youth jobs decreased
4.715 million in the global recession, with output in the US reaching
a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The youth civilian
noninstitutional population increased 0.483 million from 36.989 million in Jul
2006 to 37.472 million in Jul 2020 while the number of youth jobs decreased 4.407
million in the global recession, with output in the US reaching
a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. This hardship does
not originate in low growth of population but in underperformance of the
economy in the expansion from the business cycle. There are two hardships
behind these data. First, young people cannot find employment after
finishing high school and college, reducing prospects for achievement in older
age. Second, students with more modest means cannot find employment to
keep them in college.
Table I-10, US,
Employment Level 16-24 Years, Thousands, NSA
|
Year |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Dec |
Annual |
|
2001 |
19778 |
19648 |
21212 |
22042 |
19547 |
20088 |
|
2002 |
19108 |
19484 |
20828 |
21501 |
19394 |
19683 |
|
2003 |
18873 |
19032 |
20432 |
20950 |
19136 |
19351 |
|
2004 |
19184 |
19237 |
20587 |
21447 |
19619 |
19630 |
|
2005 |
19071 |
19356 |
20949 |
21749 |
19733 |
19770 |
|
2006 |
19406 |
19769 |
21268 |
21914 |
20129 |
20041 |
|
2007 |
19368 |
19457 |
21098 |
21717 |
19361 |
19875 |
|
2008 |
19161 |
19254 |
20466 |
21021 |
18378 |
19202 |
|
2009 |
17739 |
17588 |
18726 |
19304 |
16615 |
17601 |
|
2010 |
16764 |
17039 |
17920 |
18564 |
16727 |
17077 |
|
2011 |
16970 |
17045 |
18180 |
18632 |
17234 |
17362 |
|
2012 |
17387 |
17681 |
18907 |
19461 |
17604 |
17834 |
|
2013 |
17593 |
17704 |
19125 |
19684 |
18106 |
18057 |
|
2014 |
18021 |
18329 |
19421 |
20085 |
18347 |
18442 |
|
2015 |
18241 |
18709 |
19789 |
20333 |
18720 |
18756 |
|
2016 |
18511 |
18875 |
19967 |
20456 |
18830 |
18992 |
|
2017 |
18948 |
19070 |
20330 |
20890 |
18610 |
19206 |
|
2018 |
18873 |
18984 |
20332 |
20897 |
18775 |
19177 |
|
2019 |
18786 |
19177 |
20639 |
21196 |
18977 |
19322 |
|
2020 |
13112 |
14352 |
16553 |
17507 |
Sources: US
Bureau of Labor Statistics
It is more difficult to move to other jobs after a
certain age because of fewer available opportunities for mature individuals
than for new entrants into the labor force. Middle-aged unemployed are less
likely to find another job. Table I-13 provides the unemployment level ages 45
years and over. The number unemployed ages 45 years and over rose from 1.607
million in Oct 2006 to 4.576 million in Oct 2010 or by 184.8 percent. The
number of unemployed ages 45 years and over declined to 3.800 million in Oct
2012 that is still higher by 136.5 percent than in Oct 2006. The number
unemployed age 45 and over increased from 1.704 million in Nov 2006 to 3.861 million
in Nov 2012, or 126.6 percent. The number unemployed age 45 and over is still
higher by 98.5 percent at 3.383 million in Nov 2013 than 1.704 million in Nov
2006. The number unemployed age 45 and over jumped from 1.794 million in Dec
2006 to 4.762 million in Dec 2010 or 165.4 percent. At 3.927 million in Dec
2012, mature unemployment is higher by 2.133 million or 118.9 percent higher
than 1.794 million in Dec 2006. The level of unemployment of those aged 45
year or more of 3.632 million in Oct 2013 is higher by 2.025 million than 1.607
million in Oct 2006 or higher by 126.0 percent. The number of unemployed 45
years and over increased from 1.794 million in Dec 2006 to 3.378 million in Nov
2013 or 88.3 percent. The annual number of unemployed 45 years and over
increased from 1.848 million in 2006 to 3.719 million in 2013 or 101.2 percent.
The number of unemployed 45 years and over increased from 2.126 million in Jan
2006 to 4.394 million in Jan 2013, by 2.618 million or 106.7 percent. The
number of unemployed 45 years and over rose from 2.126 million in Jan 2006 to
3.508 million in Jan 2014, by 1.382 million or 65.0 percent. The level of
unemployed 45 years or older increased 2.051 million or 99.8 percent from 2.056
million in Feb 2006 to 4.107 million in Feb 2013 and at 3.490 million in Feb
2014 is higher by 69.7 percent than in Feb 2006. The number of unemployed 45
years and over increased 2.048 million or 108.9 percent from 1.881 million in
Mar 2006 to 3.929 million in Mar 2013 and at 3.394 million in Mar 2014 is
higher by 80.4 percent than in Mar 2006. The number of unemployed 45 years and
over increased 1.846 million or 100.2 percent from 1.843 million in Apr 2006 to
3.689 million in Apr 2013 and at 3.006 million in Apr 2014 is higher by 1.163
million or 63.1 percent. The number of unemployed ages 45 years and over
increased 102.1 percent from 1.784 million in May 2006 to 3.605 million in May
2014 and at 2.913 million in May 2014 is higher by 63.3 percent than in May
2007.
The number of
unemployed ages 45 years and over increased 102.1 percent from 1.805 million in
Jun 2007 to 3.648 million in Jun 2013 and at 2.832 million in Jun 2014 is
higher by 56.9 percent than in Jun 2007. The number of unemployed ages 45 years
and over increased 81.5 percent from 2.053 million in Jul 2007 to 3.727 million
in Jul 2013 and at 3.083 million in Jul 2014 is higher by 50.2 percent than in
Jul 2007. The level unemployed ages 45 years and over increased 84.4 percent
from 1.956 million in Aug 2007 to 3.607 million in Aug 2013 and at 3.037
million in Aug 2014 is 55.2 percent higher than in Aug 2007. The level
unemployed ages 45 years and over increased 90.7 percent from 1.854 million in
Sep 2007 to 3.535 million in Sep 2013 and at 2.640 million in Sep 2014 is 42.4
percent higher than in Sep 2007. The level unemployed ages 45 years and over
increased 1.747 million from 1.885 million in Oct 2007 to 3.632 million in Oct
2013 and at 2.606 million in Oct 2014 is 38.2 percent higher than in Oct 2007.
The level unemployed ages 45 years and over increased 1.458 million from 1.925
million in Nov 2007 to 3.383 million in Nov 2013 and at 2.829 million in Nov
2014 is 47.0 percent higher than in Nov 2007. The level of unemployed ages 45
years and over increased 1.258 million from Dec 2007 to Dec 2013 and at 2.667
million in Dec 2014 is 25.8 higher than in Dec 2007. The level unemployed ages
45 years and over increased 1.353 million from Jan 2007 to Jan 2015 and at
3.077 million in Jan 2015 is 42.8 percent higher than in Jan 2007. The level unemployed
ages 45 years and over increased 1.352 million from 2.138 million in Feb 2007
to 3.490 million in Feb 2014 and at 2.991 million in Feb 2015 is 39.9 percent
higher than in Feb 2007. The level of unemployed ages 45 years and over
increased 1.363 million from 2.031 million in Mar 2007 to 3.394 million in Mar
2014 and at 2.724 million in Mar 2015 is 34.1 percent higher than in Mar 2007.
The level of unemployed ages 45 years and over increased from 1.871 million in
Apr 2007 to 3.006 million in Apr 2014 and at 2.579 million in Apr 2015 is 37.8
higher than in Apr 2007. The level of unemployed ages 45 years and over
increased from 1.803 million in May 2007 to 2.913 million in Jun 2014 and at
2.457 million in May 2015 is 36.3 percent higher than in May 2007. The level of
unemployed ages 45 years and over increased from 1.805 million in Jun 2007 to
2.832 million in Jun 2014 and at 2.359 million in Jun 2015 is 30.7 percent
higher than in Jun 2007. The level of unemployed ages 45 years and over
increased from 2.053 million in Jul 2007 to 3.083 million in Jul 2014 and at
2.666 million in Jul 2015 is 30.0 percent higher than in Jul 2007. The level of
unemployed ages 45 years and over increased from 1.956 million in Aug 2007 to
3.037 million in Aug 2014 and at 2.693 million in Aug 2015 is 37.7 higher than
in Aug 2007. The level of unemployed ages 45 years and over increased from
1.854 million in Sep 2007 to 2.640 million in Sep 2015 and at 2.388 million in
Sep 2015 is 28.8 percent higher than in Sep 2007. The level of unemployment
ages 45 years and over increased from 1.885 million in Oct 2007 to 2.606
million in Oct 2014 and at 2.290 million in Oct 2015 is 21.5 percent higher
than in Oct 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 years and over increased
from 1.925 million in Nov 2007 to 2.829 million in Nov 2014 and at 2.349
million in Nov 2015 is 22.0 percent higher than in Nov 2007. The level of
unemployment ages 45 years and over increased from 2.120 million in Dec 2007 to
2.667 million in Dec 2014 and at 2.317 million in Dec 2015 is 9.3 percent
higher than in Dec 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased
from 2.155 million in Jan 2007 to 3.077 million in Jan 2015 and at 2.736
million in Jan 2016 is 27.0 percent higher than in Jan 2007. The level of unemployment
ages 45 and over increased from 2.138 million in Feb 2007 to 2.991 million in
Feb 2015 and at 2.744 million in Feb 2016 is 28.3 percent higher than in Feb
2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.031 million
in Mar 2007 to 2.724 million in Mar 2015 and at 2.747 million in Mar 2016 is
35.3 percent higher than in Mar 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and
over increased from 1.871 million in Apr 2007 to 2.579 million in Apr 2015 and
at 2.410 million in Apr 2016 is 28.8 percent higher than in Apr 2007. The level
of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.803 million in May 2007 to
2.457 million in May 2015 and at 2.190 million in May 2016 is 21.5 percent
higher than in May 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased
from 1.805 million in Jun 2007 to 2.359 million in Jun 2015 and at 2.345
million in Jun 2016 is 29.9 percent higher than in Jun 2007. The level of
unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.053 million in Jul 2007 to 2.666
million in Jul 2015 and at 2.619 million in Jul 2016 is 27.6 percent higher
than in Jul 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from
1.956 million in Aug 2007 to 2.693 million in Aug 2015 and at 2.565 million in
Aug 2016 is 31.1 percent higher than in Aug 2007. The level of unemployment
ages 45 and over increased from 1.854 million in Sep 2007 to 2.388 million in
Sep 2015 and at 2.414 million in Sep 2016 is 30.2 percent higher than in Sep
2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.885 million
in Oct 2007 to 2.290 million in Oct 2015 and at 2.337 million in Oct 2016 is
24.0 percent higher than in Oct 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and
over increased from 1.925 million in Nov 2007 to 2.349 million in Nov 2015 and
at 2.355 million in Nov 2016 is 22.3 percent higher than in Nov 2007. The level
of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.120 million in Dec 2007 to
2.317 million in Dec 2015 and at 2.360 million in Dec 2016 is 11.3 percent
higher than in Dec 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased
from 2.155 million in Jan 2007 to 2.736 million in Jan 2016 and at 2.585
million in Jan 2017 is 20.0 percent higher than in Jan 2007. The level of
unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.138 million in Feb 2007 to 2.744
million in Feb 2016 and at 2.493 million in Feb 2017 is 16.6 percent higher
than in Feb 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from
2.031 million in Mar 2007 to 2.747 million in Mar 2016 and at 2.413 million in
Mar 2017 is 18.8 percent higher than in Mar 2007. The level of unemployment
ages 45 and over increased from 2.031 million in Mar 2007 to 2.747 million in
Mar 2016 and at 2.413 million in Mar 2017 is 18.8 percent higher than in Mar
2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.871 million
in Apr 2007 to 2.410 million in Apr 2016 and at 2.202 million in Apr 2017 is
17.7 percent higher than in Apr 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and
over increased from 1.803 million in May 2007 to 2.190 million in May 2016 and
at 2.052 million in May 2017 is 13.8 percent higher than in May 2007. The level
of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.805 million in Jun 2007 to
2.345 million in Jun 2016 and at 2.256 million in Jun 2017 is 25.0 percent higher
than in Jun 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from
2.053 million in Jul 2007 to 2.619 million in Jul 2016 and at 2.335 million in
Jul 2017 is 13.7 percent higher than in Jul 2007. The level of unemployment
ages 45 and over increased from 1.956 million in Aug 2007 to 2.565 million in
Aug 2016 and at 2.444 million in Aug 2017 is 24.9 percent higher than in Aug
2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.854 million
in Sep 2007 to 2.414 million in Sep 2016 and at 2.140 million in Sep 2017 is
15.4 percent higher than in Sep 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and
over increased from 1.885 million in Oct 2007 to 2.337 million in Oct 2016 and
at 1.899 million in Oct 2017 is 0.7 percent higher than in Oct 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over
increased from 1.925 million in Nov 2007 to 2.355 million in Nov 2016 and at
1.958 million in Nov 2017 is 1.7 percent higher than in Nov 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over
increased from 2.120 million in Dec 2007 to 2.360 million in Dec 2016 and at
2.079 million in Dec 2017 is 1.9 percent lower than in Dec 2007. The level of
unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.155 million in Jan 2007 to 2.585
million in Jan 2017 and at 2.300 million in Jan 2018 is 6.7 percent higher than
in Jan 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.138
million in Feb 2007 to 2.493 million in Feb 2017 and at 2.354 million in Feb
2018 is 10.1 percent higher than in Feb 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45
and over increased from 2.031 million in Mar 2007 to 2.413 million in Mar 2017
and at 2.266 million in Mar 2018 is 11.6 percent higher than in Mar 2007. The
level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.871 million in Apr 2007
to 2.202 million in Apr 2017 and at 1.937 million in Apr 2018 is 3.5 percent
higher than in Apr 2007. The level of unemployment ages
45 and over increased from 1.803 million in May 2007 to 2.052 million in May
2017 and at 1.774 million in May 2018 is 1.6 percent lower than in May 2007.
The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.805 million in Jun
2007 to 2.256 million in Jun 2017 and at 2.102 million in Jun 2018 is 16.5
percent higher than in Jun 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased
from 2.053 million in Jul 2007 to 2.335 million in Jul 2017 and at 2.235
million in Jul 2018 is 8.9 percent higher than in Jul 2007. The level of
unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.956 million in Aug 2007 to 2.444
million in Aug 2017 and at 2.096 million in Aug 2018 is 7.2 percent higher than
in Aug 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.854
million in Sep 2007 to 2.140 million in Sep 2017 and at 1.872 million in Sep
2018 is 1.0 percent higher than in Sep 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45
and over increased from 1.885 million in Oct 2007 to 1.889 million in Oct 2017
and at 1.833 million in Oct 2018 is 2.8 percent lower than in Oct 2007. The
level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.925 million in Nov 2007
to 1.958 million in Nov 2017 and at 1.850 million in Nov 2018 is 3.9 percent
lower than in Nov 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over decreased
from 2.120 million in Dec 2007 to 2.079 million in Dec 2017 and at 2.026
million in Dec 2018 is 4.4 percent lower than in Dec 2007. The level of
unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.155 million in Jan 2007 to 2.300
million in Jan 2018 and at 2.393 million in Jan 2019 is 11.0 percent higher
than in Jan 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from
2.138 million in Feb 2007 to 2.354 million in Feb 2018 and at 2.149 million in
Feb 2019 is 0.5 percent higher than in Feb 2007. The level of unemployment ages
45 and over increased from 2.031 million in Mar 2007 to 2.266 million in Mar
2018 and at 2.091 million in Mar 2019 is 3.0 percent higher than in Mar 2007.
The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.871 million in Apr
2007 to 1.937 million in Apr 2018 and at 1.707 million in Apr 2019 is 8.8
percent lower than in Apr 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over
decreased from 1.803 million in May 2007 to 1.774 million in May 2018 and at
1.712 million in May 2019 is 5.0 percent lower than in May 2007. The level of
unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.805 million in Jun 2007 to 2.102
million in Jun 2018 and at 1.976 million in Jun 2019 is 9.5 percent higher than
in Jun 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.053
million in Jul 2007 to 2.235 million in Jul 2018 and at 2.053 million in Jul
2019 is 0.0 percent higher than in Jul 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45
and over increased from 1.956 million in Aug 2007 to 2.096 million in Aug 2018
and at 2.018 million in Aug 2019 is 3.2 percent higher than in Aug 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from
1.854 million in Sep 2007 to 1.872 million in Sep 2018 and at 1.755 million in
Sep 2019 is 5.3 percent lower than in Sep 2007. The level of unemployment
ages 45 and over decreased from 1.885 million in Oct 2007 to 1.833 million in
Oct 2018 and at 1.703 million in Oct 2019 is 9.7 percent lower than in Oct
2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 1.925 million
in Nov 2007 to 1.850 million in Nov 2018 and at 1.732 million in Nov 2019 is
10.0 percent lower than in Nov 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over
decreased from 2.120 million in Dec 2007 to 2.026 million in Dec 2018 and at
1.713 million in Dec 2019 is 19.2 percent lower than in Dec 2007. The level of
unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.155 million in Jan 2007 to 2.393
million in Jan 2019 and at 1.990 million in Jan 2020 is 7.7 percent lower than
in Jan 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.138
million in Feb 2007 to 2.149 million in Feb 2019 and at 2.000 million in Feb
2020 is 6.5 percent lower than in Feb 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45
and over increased from 2.031 million in Mar 2007 to 2.091 million in Mar 2019
and at 2.462 million in Mar 2020 is 21.2 percent higher than in Mar 2007. The
level of unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 1.871 million in Apr 2007
to 1.707 million in Apr 2019 and at 8.819 million in Apr 2020 is 371.4 percent
higher than in Apr 2007 in the global recession, in the global recession with
output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of
unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 1.871 million in Apr 2007 to 1.707
million in Apr 2019 and at 8.819 million in Apr 2020 is 371.4 percent higher
than in Apr 2007 in the global recession, in the global recession with
output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of
unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 1.803 million in May 2007 to 1.712
million in May 2019 and at 7.614 million in May 2020 is 322.3 percent higher
than in May 2007 in the global recession, in the global recession with
output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of
unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.805 million in Jun 2007 to 1.976
million in Jun 2019 and at 6.290 million in Jun 2020 is 248.5 percent higher
than in Jun 2007 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high
in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of
unemployment ages 45 and over did not change from 2.053 million in Jul 2007 to 2.053
million in Jul 2019 and at 5.966 million in Jul 2020 is 190.6 percent higher
than in Jul 2007 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high
in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The actual
number unemployed is likely much higher because many are not accounted who
abandoned job searches in frustration there may not be a job for them. Recent
improvements may be illusory. The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over
entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. US
economic growth has been at only 1.2 percent on average in the cyclical
expansion in the 44 quarters from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2020 and in the global
recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Boskin (2010Sep) measures
that the US economy grew at 6.2 percent in the first four quarters and 4.5
percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the second quarter of
1975; and at 7.7 percent in the first four quarters and 5.8 percent in the
first 12 quarters after the trough in the first quarter of 1983 (Professor
Michael J. Boskin, Summer of Discontent, Wall
Street Journal, Sep 2, 2010 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882304575465462926649950.html). There are
new calculations using the revision of US GDP and personal income data since
1929 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (http://bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) and the
first estimate of GDP for IIQ2020 (https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2020-07/gdp2q20_adv.pdf). The
average of 7.7 percent in the first four quarters of major cyclical expansions
is in contrast with the rate of growth in the first four quarters of the
expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010 of only 2.8 percent obtained by dividing GDP
of $15,557.3 billion in IIQ2010 by GDP of $15,134.1 billion in IIQ2009
{[($15,557.3/$15,134.1) -1]100 = 2.8%], or accumulating the quarter on quarter
growth rates (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/contraction-of-united-states-gdp-at-32_57.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/06/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html). The
expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1986 was at the average annual growth rate of 5.7 percent, 5.3 percent from
IQ1983 to IIIQ1986, 5.1 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1986, 5.0 percent from IQ1983
to IQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to
IIIQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to
IIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to
IVQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1989, 4.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1989,
4.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1989, 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1989. 4.5
percent from IQ1983 to IQ1990, 4.4 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1990, 4.3 percent
from IQ1983 to IIIQ1990, 4.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1990, 3.8 percent from
IQ1983 to IQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983
to IIIQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to
IQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to
IIIQ2019, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to
IQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to
IIIQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1993 and at 7.9 percent from IQ1983 to
IVQ1983 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/contraction-of-united-states-gdp-at-32_57.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/06/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html). The
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dates a contraction of the US from
IQ1990 (Jul) to IQ1991 (Mar) (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html). The
expansion lasted until another contraction beginning in IQ2001 (Mar). US GDP
contracted 1.3 percent from the pre-recession peak of $8983.9 billion of
chained 2009 dollars in IIIQ1990 to the trough of $8865.6 billion in IQ1991 (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). The US
maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions
at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire
cycle from IVQ2007 to IIQ2020 and in the global recession with output in the US
reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event would have accumulated to
44.7 percent. GDP in IIQ2020 would be $22,807.6 billion (in constant dollars of
2012) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $5601.8 billion than
actual $17,205.8 billion. There are more than five trillion dollars of GDP less
than at trend, explaining the 38.5 million unemployed or underemployed
equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 22.3 percent of the
effective labor force with the largest part originating in the global recession
with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/thirty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/07/increase-of-total-nonfarm-payroll-jobs.html). Unemployment is decreasing while employment is increasing in
initial adjustment of the lockdown of economic activity in the global recession
resulting from the COVID-19 event (https://www.bls.gov/cps/employment-situation-covid19-faq-june-2020.pdf). US GDP in IQ2020 is 24.6 percent lower than at trend. US GDP
grew from $15,762.0 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $17,205.8
billion in IQ2020 or 9.2 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 0.7
percent. Professor John H. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10
percent below trend. Cochrane (2016May02) measures GDP growth in the US at
average 3.5 percent per year from 1950 to 2000 and only at 1.76 percent per
year from 2000 to 2015 with only at 2.0 percent annual equivalent in the
current expansion. Cochrane (2016May02) proposes drastic changes in regulation
and legal obstacles to private economic activity. The US missed the opportunity
to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up
because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US
missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in
the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and
quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical
expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0
percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the
US instead of allegations of secular
stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic
research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example
Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term
trend is growth of manufacturing at average 2.9 percent per year from Jun 1919
to Jun 2020. Growth at 2.9 percent per year would raise the NSA index of
manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in
Dec 2007 to 154.8159 in Jun 2020. The actual index NSA in Jun 2020 is 95.097
which is 38.6 percent below trend. The underperformance of manufacturing in Jun
2020 originates partly in the earlier global recession augmented by the current
global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19. Manufacturing grew at the
average annual rate of 3.3 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2006. Growth at 3.3
percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC,
Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 162.5089 in
Jun 2020. The actual index NSA in Jun 2020 is 95.0970, which is 41.5 percent
below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 1.6 percent between Dec 1986
and Jun 2020. Using trend growth of 1.6 percent per year, the index would
increase to 132.0671 in Jun 2020. The output of manufacturing at 95.0970 in Jun
2020 is 28.0 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Using the NAICS (North American Industry Classification
System), manufacturing output fell from the high of 110.5147 in Jun 2007 to the
low of 86.3800 in Apr 2009 or 21.8 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index
increased from 86.3800 in Apr 2009 to 96.1857 in Jun 2020 or 11.4 percent. The
NAICS manufacturing index increased at the annual equivalent rate of 3.5
percent from Dec 1986 to Dec 2006. Growth at 3.5 percent would increase the
NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 163.9940 in Jun
2020. The NAICS index at 96.1857 in Jun 2020 is 41.3 below trend. The NAICS
manufacturing output index grew at 1.7 percent annual equivalent from Dec 1999
to Dec 2006. Growth at 1.7 percent would raise the NAICS manufacturing output
index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 131.6999 in Jun 2020. The NAICS index at
96.1857 in Jun 2020 is 27.0 percent below trend under this alternative
calculation.
Table I-13, US,
Unemployment Level 45 Years and Over, NSA
|
Year |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Dec |
Annual |
|
2000 |
1074 |
1163 |
1253 |
1217 |
1249 |
|
2001 |
1259 |
1371 |
1539 |
1901 |
1576 |
|
2002 |
1999 |
2190 |
2173 |
2210 |
2114 |
|
2003 |
2112 |
2212 |
2281 |
2130 |
2253 |
|
2004 |
2025 |
2182 |
2116 |
2086 |
2149 |
|
2005 |
1844 |
1868 |
2119 |
1963 |
2009 |
|
2006 |
1784 |
1813 |
1985 |
1794 |
1848 |
|
2007 |
1803 |
1805 |
2053 |
2120 |
1966 |
|
2008 |
2095 |
2211 |
2492 |
3485 |
2540 |
|
2009 |
4175 |
4505 |
4757 |
4960 |
4500 |
|
2010 |
4565 |
4564 |
4821 |
4762 |
4879 |
|
2011 |
4356 |
4559 |
4772 |
4182 |
4537 |
|
2012 |
4083 |
4084 |
4405 |
3927 |
4133 |
|
2013 |
3605 |
3648 |
3727 |
3378 |
3719 |
|
2014 |
2913 |
2832 |
3083 |
2667 |
3000 |
|
2015 |
2457 |
2359 |
2666 |
2317 |
2574 |
|
2016 |
2190 |
2345 |
2619 |
2360 |
2485 |
|
2017 |
2052 |
2256 |
2335 |
2079 |
2238 |
|
2018 |
1774 |
2102 |
2235 |
2026 |
2054 |
|
2019 |
1712 |
1976 |
2053 |
1713 |
1917 |
|
2020 |
7614 |
6290 |
5966 |
Sources: US
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Chart I-25
provides the level unemployed ages 45 years and over. There was an increase in
the recessions of the 1980s, 1991 and 2001 followed by declines to earlier
levels. The current expansion of the economy after IIIQ2009 has not been
sufficiently vigorous to reduce significantly middle-age unemployment. Recent
improvements could be illusory because many abandoned job searches in
frustration that there may not be jobs for them and are not counted as
unemployed.
Chart I-25, US, Unemployment Level Ages 45 Years and Over,
Thousands, NSA, 1976-2020
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/data/
Chart I-25A provides the unemployment level ages 45 years and
over from Jan 2016 to Jul 2020. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over
decreased from 1.871 million in Apr 2007 to 1.707 million in Apr 2019 and at
8.819 million in Apr 2020 is 371.4 percent higher than in Apr 2007 in
the global recession, in the global recession with output in the US reaching a
high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of
unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 1.871 million in Apr 2007 to 1.707
million in Apr 2019 and at 8.819 million in Apr 2020 is 371.4 percent higher
than in Apr 2007 in the global recession, in the global recession with
output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of
unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 1.803 million in May 2007 to 1.712
million in May 2019 and at 7.614 million in May 2020 is 322.3 percent higher
than in May 2007 in the global recession, in the global recession with
output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of
unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.805 million in Jun 2007 to 1.976
million in Jun 2019 and at 6.290 million in Jun 2020 is 248.5 percent higher
than in Jun 2007 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high
in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of
unemployment ages 45 and over did not change from 2.053 million in Jul 2007 to 2.053
million in Jul 2019 and at 5.966 million in Jul 2020 is 190.6 percent higher
than in Jul 2007 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high
in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.
Chart I-25A, US, Unemployment Level Ages 45 Years and Over,
Thousands, NSA, 2016-2020
Source: US
Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/data/
© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009,
2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020.
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