Thirty-Eight Million Unemployed or Underemployed in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth Underperforming Below Trend Worldwide, Unemployment Rate at 10.2 Percent in Jul 2020 In the Global Recession, with Output in the US Reaching a High in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the Lockdown of Economic Activity in the COVID-19 Event, Creation of 1.763 Million Nonfarm Payroll Jobs and 1.462 Million Private Payroll Jobs in Jul 2020, Cyclically Stagnating Real Wages, Job Creation, Cyclically Stagnating Real Disposable Income Per Capita, Financial Repression, World Cyclical Slow Growth, and Government Intervention in Globalization: Part VI
Carlos M. Pelaez
© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009,
2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020.
I Thirty-Eight Million Unemployed or
Underemployed in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic
Growth Underperforming
Below Trend Worldwide
IA2 Number of People in Job Stress
IA3 Long-term and
Cyclical Comparison of Employment
IA4 Job Creation
II Stagnating Real Disposable Income and Consumption Expenditures
IIB1 Stagnating Real
Disposable Income and Consumption Expenditures
IB2 Financial
Repression
III World Financial Turbulence
IV Global Inflation
V World Economic
Slowdown
VA United States
VB Japan
VC China
VD Euro Area
VE Germany
VF France
VG Italy
VH United Kingdom
VI Valuation of Risk
Financial Assets
VII Economic
Indicators
VIII Interest Rates
IX Conclusion
References
Appendixes
Appendix I The Great Inflation
IIIB Appendix on Safe
Haven Currencies
IIIC Appendix on
Fiscal Compact
IIID Appendix on
European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort
IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the
Debt Crisis
Motor vehicle sales and production in the US have been in
long-term structural change. Table VA-1A provides the data on new motor vehicle
sales and domestic car production in the US from 1990 to 2010. New motor
vehicle sales grew from 14,137 thousand in 1990 to the peak of 17,806 thousand
in 2000 or 29.5 percent. In that same period, domestic car production fell from
6,231 thousand in 1990 to 5,542 thousand in 2000 or -11.1 percent. New motor
vehicle sales fell from 17,445 thousand in 2005 to 11,772 in 2010 or 32.5
percent while domestic car production fell from 4,321 thousand in 2005 to 2,840
thousand in 2010 or 34.3 percent. In IIQ2018, light vehicle sales accumulated
to 4,500,220, which is higher by 1.8 percent relative to 4,419,349 a year
earlier in IIQ2017 (http://www.motorintelligence.com/m_frameset.html). Total not seasonally adjusted light vehicle sales
reached 1260.9 thousands in Jul 2020, decreasing 12.7 percent from 1443.9
thousands in Jul 2019 (https://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gap_hist.xlsx https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product#collapse86). The seasonally adjusted annual rate of light vehicle sales in
the US reached 14.5 million in Jul 2020, higher than 13.1 million in Jun 2020
and lower than 17.0 million in Jul 2019 (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product#collapse86).
Table VA-1A, US, New Motor Vehicle Sales and Car Production,
Thousand Units 7
|
|
New Motor Vehicle Sales |
New Car Sales and Leases |
New Truck Sales and Leases |
Domestic Car Production |
|
1990 |
14,137 |
9,300 |
4,837 |
6,231 |
|
1991 |
12,725 |
8,589 |
4,136 |
5,454 |
|
1992 |
13,093 |
8,215 |
4,878 |
5,979 |
|
1993 |
14,172 |
8,518 |
5,654 |
5,979 |
|
1994 |
15,397 |
8,990 |
6,407 |
6,614 |
|
1995 |
15,106 |
8,536 |
6,470 |
6,340 |
|
1996 |
15,449 |
8,527 |
6,922 |
6,081 |
|
1997 |
15,490 |
8,273 |
7,218 |
5,934 |
|
1998 |
15,958 |
8,142 |
7,816 |
5,554 |
|
1999 |
17,401 |
8,697 |
8,704 |
5,638 |
|
2000 |
17,806 |
8,852 |
8,954 |
5,542 |
|
2001 |
17,468 |
8,422 |
9,046 |
4,878 |
|
2002 |
17,144 |
8,109 |
9,036 |
5,019 |
|
2003 |
16,968 |
7,611 |
9,357 |
4,510 |
|
2004 |
17,298 |
7,545 |
9,753 |
4,230 |
|
2005 |
17,445 |
7,720 |
9,725 |
4,321 |
|
2006 |
17,049 |
7,821 |
9,228 |
4,367 |
|
2007 |
16,460 |
7,618 |
8,683 |
3,924 |
|
2008 |
13,494 |
6,814 |
6.680 |
3,777 |
|
2009 |
10,601 |
5,456 |
5,154 |
2,247 |
|
2010 |
11,772 |
5,729 |
6,044 |
2,840 |
Source: US Census Bureau
https://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gap_hist.xlsx
Table VA-1B provides the seasonally
adjusted annual rate of total vehicle sales in the United States. The
rate decreased from 17.740 in Jun 2019 and 17.214 in Feb 2020 to 9.089 in Apr 2020
in the lockdown of economic activity in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a
high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The rate recovered
to 12.499 in May 2020 and 13.411 in Jun 2020 in gradual return to economic
activity. The rate for Jul 2020 increased to 14.915 (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product#collapse86).
Table VA-1B,
United States, Annual Rate, Total Vehicle Sales, Seasonally Adjusted Annual
Rate
|
2019-01-01 |
17.305 |
|
2019-02-01 |
17.098 |
|
2019-03-01 |
17.830 |
|
2019-04-01 |
17.155 |
|
2019-05-01 |
17.862 |
|
2019-06-01 |
17.740 |
|
2019-07-01 |
17.527 |
|
2019-08-01 |
17.600 |
|
2019-09-01 |
17.643 |
|
2019-10-01 |
17.272 |
|
2019-11-01 |
17.437 |
|
2019-12-01 |
17.289 |
|
2020-01-01 |
17.311 |
|
2020-02-01 |
17.214 |
|
2020-03-01 |
11.809 |
|
2020-04-01 |
9.089 |
|
2020-05-01 |
12.499 |
|
2020-06-01 |
13.411 |
|
2020-07-01 |
14.915 |
Source: Economic
Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA
Data for Jul 2020: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product#collapse86
Chart I-4 of the Economic Research Division, Federal Reserve
Bank of St. Louis, provides the complete data set of SAAR of total car sales in
the US. The SAAR of 9.089 in Apr 2020 is lower than the lowest rate in the
global recession at 9.223 in Feb 2009.
Chart I-4, SA Annual Rate of Total Car Sales in the United
States, Jan 1976 to Jun 2020
Source:
Economic Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA
Chart I-5 of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
provides output of motor vehicles and parts in the United States from 1972 to
2020. Output virtually stagnated since the late 1990s with recent increase
followed by the highest decrease in the data history in the lockdown of
economic activity in the COVID-19 event.
Chart 1-5, US, Motor Vehicles and Parts Output, 1972-2020
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm
Table VB-1 provides the employment report
of Japan in Jun 2020. The rate of unemployment not seasonally adjusted reached
2.8 percent, increasing 0.5 percentage points from a year earlier. Population decreased
0.1 percent from a year earlier. The labor force decreased 0.6 percent from a
year earlier and the labor participation rate stood at 61.9, decreasing 0.4
percentage points from a year earlier. The employment rate moved to 60.2
percent, decreasing 0.6 percentage points relative to a year earlier.
Table VB-1,
Japan, Employment Report Jun 2020
|
Jun 2020
Unemployed |
1.95 million |
|
Change since
last year |
330 thousand;
∆% 20.4 |
|
Unemployment
rate |
SA 2.8%, -0.1
from earlier month; NSA 2.8%, 0.5
from earlier year |
|
Population ≥
15 years |
110.86
million |
|
Change since
last year |
∆% -0.1 |
|
Labor Force |
68.65 million |
|
Change since
last year |
∆% -0.6 |
|
Employed |
66.70 million |
|
Change since
last year |
∆% -1.1 |
|
Labor force
participation rate |
61.9 |
|
Change since
last year |
-0.4 |
|
Employment
rate |
60.2% |
|
Change since
last year |
-0.6 |
Source: Japan,
Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications
http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/results/month/index.html
Table VB-2
provides the rate of unemployment of Japan seasonally adjusted that decreased
to 3.4 percent in Dec 2014 from 4.4 percent in Jul 2012. The rate of
unemployment SA increased 0.5 percentage points from 2.3 percent in Jun 2019 to
2.8 percent in Jun 2020.
Table VB-2,
Japan, Unemployment Rate, SA
|
|
Unemployment
Rate SA |
|
Jun 2020 |
2.8 |
|
May |
2.9 |
|
Apr |
2.6 |
|
Mar |
2.5 |
|
Feb |
2.4 |
|
Jan |
2.4 |
|
Dec 2019 |
2.2 |
|
Nov |
2.2 |
|
Oct |
2.4 |
|
Sep |
2.4 |
|
Aug |
2.3 |
|
Jul |
2.3 |
|
Jun |
2.3 |
|
May |
2.4 |
|
Apr |
2.4 |
|
Mar |
2.5 |
|
Feb |
2.4 |
|
Jan |
2.5 |
|
Dec 2018 |
2.4 |
|
Nov |
2.5 |
|
Oct |
2.4 |
|
Sep |
2.3 |
|
Aug |
2.5 |
|
Jul |
2.5 |
|
Jun |
2.5 |
|
May |
2.3 |
|
Apr |
2.5 |
|
Mar |
2.5 |
|
Feb |
2.5 |
|
Jan |
2.4 |
|
Dec 2017 |
2.7 |
|
Nov |
2.7 |
|
Oct |
2.7 |
|
Sep |
2.8 |
|
Aug |
2.7 |
|
Jul |
2.8 |
|
Jun |
2.8 |
|
May |
3.1 |
|
Apr |
2.8 |
|
Mar |
2.8 |
|
Feb |
2.9 |
|
Jan |
3.0 |
|
Dec 2016 |
3.1 |
|
Nov |
3.1 |
|
Oct |
3.0 |
|
Sep |
3.0 |
|
Aug |
3.1 |
|
Jul |
3.0 |
|
Jun |
3.1 |
|
May |
3.1 |
|
Apr |
3.2 |
|
Mar |
3.2 |
|
Feb |
3.3 |
|
Jan |
3.2 |
|
Dec 2015 |
3.3 |
|
Nov |
3.3 |
|
Oct |
3.2 |
|
Sep |
3.4 |
|
Aug |
3.4 |
|
Jul |
3.4 |
|
Jun |
3.4 |
|
May |
3.3 |
|
Apr |
3.4 |
|
Mar |
3.4 |
|
Feb |
3.5 |
|
Jan |
3.5 |
|
Dec 2014 |
3.4 |
|
Nov |
3.5 |
|
Oct |
3.6 |
|
Sep |
3.5 |
|
Aug |
3.5 |
|
Jul |
3.7 |
|
Jun |
3.7 |
|
May |
3.6 |
|
Apr |
3.6 |
|
Mar |
3.6 |
|
Feb |
3.6 |
|
Jan |
3.7 |
|
Dec 2013 |
3.7 |
|
Nov |
3.9 |
|
Oct |
4.0 |
|
Sep |
4.0 |
|
Aug |
4.1 |
|
Jul |
3.8 |
|
Jun |
3.9 |
|
May |
4.1 |
|
Apr |
4.1 |
|
Mar |
4.1 |
|
Feb |
4.3 |
|
Jan |
4.2 |
|
Dec 2012 |
4.3 |
|
Nov |
4.1 |
|
Oct |
4.1 |
|
Sep |
4.3 |
|
Aug |
4.2 |
|
Jul |
4.4 |
|
Jun |
4.3 |
|
May |
4.4 |
Source: Source:
Japan, Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications
http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/results/month/index.htm
Chart VB-1 of Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and
Communications provides the unemployment rate of Japan from 2014 to 2019. There
is clear trend of decline with multiple oscillations and increase in Jun-Jul
2014. The rate increased in Sep 2014 and fell in Oct 2014, stabilizing in Nov
2014 and declining in Dec 2014. The rate decreased in Feb-Apr 2015, stabilizing
in May 2015. The rate increased in Jun 2015 and fell in Jul 2015, increasing in
Aug 2015 and stabilizing in Sep 2015. The rate fell in Oct 2015, increasing in
Nov 2015, remaining unchanged in Dec 2015 and decreasing in Jan 2016. The rate
increased in Feb 2016 and decreased in Mar 2016, stabilizing in Apr-May 2016.
The rate decreased in Jun-Jul 2016, increasing in Aug 2016. The rate decreased
in Sep 2016, stabilizing in Oct 2016. The rate increased in Nov 2016 and
stabilized in Dec 2016, decreasing in Jan-Feb 2017. The rate stabilized in Apr
2017, increasing in May 2017 and decreasing in Jun 2017. The rate stabilized in
Jul-Oct 2017, decreasing in Nov 2017. The rate increased in Dec 2017,
decreasing in Jan 2018. The rate increased in Feb 2018 and stabilized in
Mar-Apr 2018, decreasing in May 2018. The rate increased in Jun-Jul 2018,
decreasing in Aug-Sep 2018. The rate increased in Oct-Nov 2018, decreasing in
Dec 2018. The rate increased in Jan 2019, decreasing in Feb 2019. The rate
increased in Mar 2019, decreasing in Apr 2019. The rate stabilized in May 2019,
decreasing in Jun 2019. The rate decreased in Jul 2019, stabilizing in Aug
2019. The rate increased in Sep 2019, stabilizing in Oct 2019. The rate
decreased in Nov 2019 and stabilized in Dec 2019. The rate increased in Jan
2020 and stabilized in Feb 2020. The rate increased in Mar-May 2020, decreasing
in Jun 2020.
Chart VB-1,
Japan, Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted
Source: Japan,
Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications
http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/results/month/index.htm
During the “lost decade” of the 1990s from 1991 to 2002
(Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession
Risk (2007), 82-3), Japan’s GDP grew at the average yearly rate of 1.0
percent, the CPI at 0.1 percent and the implicit deflator at minus 0.8 percent.
Japan’s growth rate from the mid-1970s to 1992 was 4 percent (Ito 2004). Table VB-3 provides Japan’s rates of
unemployment, participation in labor force and employment for selected years
from 1953 to 1985 and yearly from 1990 to 2016.
The rate of unemployment jumped from 2.1 percent in 1991 to 5.4 percent
in 2002, which was a year of global economic weakness. The participation rate
dropped from 64.0 percent in 1992 to 61.2 percent in 2002 and the employment
rate fell from 62.6 percent in 1992 to 57.9 percent in 2002. The rate of
unemployment rose from 3.9 percent in 2007 to 5.1 percent in 2010, falling to
4.6 percent in 2011, 4.3 percent in 2012 and 3.6 percent in 2014. The rate of
unemployment fell to 3.4 percent in 2015 and 3.1 percent in 2016. The unemployment rate fell to 2.8 percent in
2017, decreasing to 2.4 percent in 2018. The unemployment rate stabilized at
2.4 percent in 2019. The participation rate fell from 60.4 percent in 2007 to
59.6 percent in 2010, falling to 59.3 percent in 2011 and 59.1 in 2012 and
increasing to 59.4 percent in 2014. The participation rate increased to 59.6 in
2015 and 60.0 in 2016, increasing to 60.5 in 2017. The participation rate increased
to 61.5 in 2018. The participation rate increased to 62.1 in 2019. The
employment rate fell from 58.1 in percent in 2007 to 56.6 percent in 2010 and
56.5 percent in 2011 and 2012, increasing to 57.3 percent in 2014. The
employment rate increased to 57.6 in 2015 and 58.1 in 2016. The employment rate
increased to 58.8 in 2017. The global
recession adversely affected labor markets in advanced economies. The
employment rate increased to 60.0 in 2018, increasing to 60.6 in 2019.
Table VB-3,
Japan, Rates of Unemployment, Participation in Labor Force and Employment, %
|
|
Participation
|
Employment Rate |
Unemployment
Rate |
|
1953 |
70.0 |
68.6 |
1.9 |
|
1960 |
69.2 |
68.0 |
1.7 |
|
1965 |
65.7 |
64.9 |
1.2 |
|
1970 |
65.4 |
64.6 |
1.1 |
|
1975 |
63.0 |
61.9 |
1.9 |
|
1980 |
63.3 |
62.0 |
2.0 |
|
1985 |
63.0 |
61.4 |
2.6 |
|
1990 |
63.3 |
61.9 |
2.1 |
|
1991 |
63.8 |
62.4 |
2.1 |
|
1992 |
64.0 |
62.6 |
2.2 |
|
1993 |
63.8 |
62.2 |
2.5 |
|
1994 |
63.6 |
61.8 |
2.9 |
|
1995 |
63.4 |
61.4 |
3.2 |
|
1996 |
63.5 |
61.4 |
3.4 |
|
1997 |
63.7 |
61.5 |
3.4 |
|
1998 |
63.3 |
60.7 |
4.1 |
|
1999 |
62.9 |
59.9 |
4.7 |
|
2000 |
62.4 |
59.5 |
4.7 |
|
2001 |
62.0 |
58.9 |
5.0 |
|
2002 |
61.2 |
57.9 |
5.4 |
|
2003 |
60.8 |
57.6 |
5.3 |
|
2004 |
60.4 |
57.6 |
4.7 |
|
2005 |
60.4 |
57.7 |
4.4 |
|
2006 |
60.4 |
57.9 |
4.1 |
|
2007 |
60.4 |
58.1 |
3.9 |
|
2008 |
60.2 |
57.8 |
4.0 |
|
2009 |
59.9 |
56.9 |
5.1 |
|
2010 |
59.6 |
56.6 |
5.1 |
|
2011 |
59.3 |
56.5 |
4.6 |
|
2012 |
59.1 |
56.5 |
4.3 |
|
2013 |
59.3 |
56.9 |
4.0 |
|
2014 |
59.4 |
57.3 |
3.6 |
|
2015 |
59.6 |
57.6 |
3.4 |
|
2016 |
60.0 |
58.1 |
3.1 |
|
2017 |
60.5 |
58.8 |
2.8 |
|
2018 |
61.5 |
60.0 |
2.4 |
|
2019 |
62.1 |
60.6 |
2.4 |
Source: Japan,
Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications
http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/results/month/index.htm
© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020.
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