CMP Associates Regulation Blog

Dollar Devaluation and Yuan Revaluation, FOMC Changed Long-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy to Target “Inflation Moderately Above 2 Percent For Some Time” If Inflation Had Been Below 2 Percent “Persistently,” US GDP Contracted at SAAR of 31.7 Percent in IIQ2020 and Decreased 9.1 Percent Relative to a Year Earlier In the Global Recession, with Output in the US Reaching a High in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the Lockdown of Economic Activity in the COVID-19 Event, Mediocre Cyclical United States Economic Growth with GDP Five Trillion Dollars Below Trend in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth Underperforming Below Trend Worldwide, Cyclically Stagnating Real Private Fixed Investment, Swelling Undistributed Corporate Profits with Profit Contraction in the Global Recession, with Output in the US Reaching a High in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the Lockdown of Economic Activity in the COVID-19 Event, Increasing US New Home Sales and Home Prices, World Inflation Waves with Increasing Price Levels In Most Countries and Regions Worldwide, World Cyclical Slow Growth, and Government Intervention in Globalization: Part VI

Carlos M. Pelaez

IA Mediocre Cyclical United States Economic Growth

IA1 Stagnating Real Private Fixed Investment

IA2 Swelling Undistributed Corporate Profits

IID United States Terms of International Trade

IIA United States Housing Collapse

IIA1 Sales of New Houses

IIA2 United States House Prices

I World Inflation Waves

IA Appendix: Transmission of Unconventional Monetary Policy

IB1 Theory

IB2 Policy

IB3 Evidence

IB4 Unwinding Strategy

IC United States Inflation

IC Long-term US Inflation

ID Current US Inflation

IE Theory and Reality of Economic History, Cyclical Slow Growth Not Secular Stagnation and Monetary Policy Based on Fear of Deflation

III World Financial Turbulence

IV Global Inflation

V World Economic Slowdown

VA United States

VB Japan

VC China

VD Euro Area

VE Germany

VF France

VG Italy

VH United Kingdom

VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets

VII Economic Indicators

VIII Interest Rates

IX Conclusion

References

Appendixes

Appendix I The Great Inflation

IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies

IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact

IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort

IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis

I World Inflation Waves. This section provides analysis and data on world inflation waves.

Table IA-1 provides annual equivalent rates of inflation for producer price indexes followed in this blog of countries and regions that account for close to three quarters of world output. The behavior of the US producer price index in 2011 and into 2012-2018 shows neatly multiple waves. (1) In Jan-Apr 2011, without risk aversion, US producer prices rose at the annual equivalent rate of 11.1 percent. (2) During risk aversion, producer prices increased in the US at the annual equivalent rate of 0.6 percent in May-Jun 2011. (3) From Jul to Sep 2011, under alternating episodes of risk aversion, producer prices increased at the annual equivalent rate of 4.1 percent. (4) Under the pressure of risk aversion because of the European debt crisis, US producer prices changed at the annual equivalent rate of 0.0 percent in Oct-Dec 2011. (5) Inflation of producer prices returned with 3.2 percent annual equivalent in Jan-Mar 2012. (6) With return of risk aversion from the European debt crisis, producer prices fell at the annual equivalent rate of 4.1 percent in Apr-May 2012. (7) New positions in commodity futures even with continuing risk aversion caused annual equivalent inflation of minus 1.2 percent in Jun-Jul 2012. (8) Relaxed risk aversion because of announcement of sovereign bond buying by the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2012/html/pr120906_1.en.html) induced carry trades that resulted in annual equivalent producer price inflation in the US of 13.4 percent in Aug-Sep 2012. (9) Renewed risk aversion caused unwinding of carry trades of zero interest rates to commodity futures exposures with annual equivalent inflation of minus 2.4 percent in Oct-Dec 2012. (10) In Jan-Feb 2013, producer prices rose at the annual equivalent rate of 7.4 percent with more relaxed risk aversion at the margin. (11) Return of risk aversion resulted in annual equivalent inflation of minus 7.0 percent in Mar-Apr 2013 with worldwide portfolio reallocation toward equities and high-yield bonds and away from commodity exposures. (12) Inflation of producer prices returned at 2.7 percent in annual equivalent in May-Aug 2013. (13) Continuing reallocation of investment portfolios away from commodities into equities is causing downward pressure on prices. In Sep-Nov 2013, the US producer price index increased at the annual equivalent rate of 0.8 percent. (14) Renewed carry trades caused annual equivalent inflation of 5.7 percent in US producer prices in Dec 2013-Feb 2014. (15) Annual equivalent inflation of producer prices was 3.7 percent in Mar 2014. (16) Annual equivalent inflation of producer prices moved at 0.9 percent in Apr-Jul 2014. (17) Annual equivalent inflation of producer prices fell at 2.7 percent in Aug-Nov 2014. (18) Annual equivalent inflation fell at 17.6 percent in Dec 2014-Jan 2015. (19) Annual equivalent inflation of producer prices increased at 1.2 percent in Feb 2015. (20) Annual equivalent inflation of producer prices increased at 4.9 percent in Mar 2015. (21) Producer prices in the US fell at annual equivalent 8.1 percent in Apr 2015. (22) US producer prices increased at annual equivalent 10.7 percent in May-Jun 2015. (23) US producer prices fell at 1.2 percent annual equivalent in Jul 2015. (24) US producer prices fell at 7.4 percent annual equivalent in Aug-Oct 2015. (25) US producer prices increased at annual equivalent 1.2 percent in Nov 2015. (26) US producer prices fell at 6.6 percent in Dec 2015-Feb 2016. (27) US producer prices increased at 3.7 percent annual equivalent in Mar-May 2016. (28) US producer prices increased at 8.7 percent annual equivalent in Jun 2016. (29) US producer prices fell at 1.2 percent annual equivalent in Jul 2016. (30) US producer prices fell at 3.5 percent annual equivalent in Aug 2016. (31) Producer prices in the US increased at annual equivalent 6.2 percent in Sep-Oct 2016. (32) US producer prices decreased at 3.5 percent in Nov 2016. (33) US producer prices increased at annual equivalent 11.4 percent in Dec 2016. (34) US producer prices increased at 8.7 percent in Jan 2017. (35) US producer prices increased at 3.7 percent annual equivalent in Feb 2017. (36) US producer prices increased at annual equivalent 1.2 percent in Mar 2017. (37) US producer prices increased at annual equivalent 4.9 percent in Apr 2017. (38) US producer prices fell at 9.2 percent annual equivalent in May 2017. (39) US producer prices increased at annual equivalent 2.4 percent in Jun 2017. (39) US producer prices fell at 1.2 percent annual equivalent in Jul 2017. (40) US producer prices increased at 8.7 percent annual equivalent in Aug-Sep 2017. (41) Producer prices in the US increased at 6.8 percent annual equivalent in Oct-Nov 2017. (42) US producer prices increased at annual equivalent 1.2 percent in Dec 2017. (43) US producer prices increased at annual equivalent 3.7 percent in Jan 2018. (44) Producer prices in the US increased at annual equivalent 2.4 percent in Feb 2018. (45) US producer prices increased at annual equivalent 2.4 percent in Mar 2018. (46) US Producer prices fell at annual equivalent 3.5 percent in Apr 2018. (47) Producer prices increased at annual equivalent 8.7 percent in May 2018. (48) US producer prices increased at annual equivalent 1.8 percent in Jun-Jul 2018. (49) Producer prices decreased at annual equivalent 1.8 percent in Aug-Sep 2018. (50) US producer prices increased at annual equivalent 8.7 percent in Oct 2018. (51) US producer prices fell at annual equivalent 7.7 percent in Nov 2018-Jan 2019. (52) Producer prices in the US increased at annual equivalent 8.3 percent in Feb-Apr 2019. (53) US producer prices decreased at annual equivalent 3.0 percent in May-Jun 2019. (54) Producer prices in the US increased at annual equivalent 3.7 percent in Jul 2019. (55) US producer prices fell at annual equivalent 2.4 percent in Aug-Sep 2019. (56) Producer prices increased at annual equivalent 4.9 percent in Oct-Dec 2019. (57) US producer prices changed at annual equivalent 0.0 percent in Jan 2020. (58) Producer prices decreased at annual equivalent 19.9 percent in Feb-Apr 2020. (59) US producer prices increased at annual equivalent 31.4 percent in May 2020. (59) Producer prices increased at annual equivalent 4.3 percent in Jun-Jul 2020. Resolution of the European debt crisis if there is not an unfavorable growth event with political development in China would result in jumps of valuations of risk financial assets. Increases in commodity prices would cause the same high producer price inflation experienced in Jan-Apr 2011 and Aug-Sep 2012. An episode of exploding commodity prices could ignite inflationary expectations that would result in an inflation phenomenon of costly resolution. There are ten producer-price indexes in Table IA-1 for seven countries (two for the US and two for the UK) and one region (euro area) showing very similar behavior. Zero interest rates without risk aversion cause increases in commodity prices that in turn increase input prices at a faster pace than output prices. Producer price inflation rose at very high rates during the first part of 2011 for the US, Japan, China, Euro Area, Germany, France, Italy and the UK when risk aversion was contained. With the increase in risk aversion in May and Jun 2011, inflation moderated because carry trades were unwound. Producer price inflation returned after Jul 2011, with alternating bouts of risk aversion. In the final months of the year producer price inflation collapsed because of the disincentive to exposures in commodity futures resulting from fears of resolution of the European debt crisis. There is renewed worldwide inflation in the early part of 2012 with subsequent collapse because of another round of sharp risk aversion and relative portfolio reallocation away from commodities and into equities and high-yield bonds. Sharp worldwide jump in producer prices occurred recently because of near zero interest rates by reinvestment of principal in securities and issue of trillion of dollars of bank reserves in perpetuity or QE→∞ in almost continuous time with temporarily relaxed risk aversion. The FOMC decided gradual reduction of the volume of securities held outright in the Fed’s balance sheet subsequently returning to QE→∞. Alternating episodes of increase and decrease of inflation introduce uncertainty in household planning that frustrates consumption and home buying. Producer prices were moderating or falling in the final months of 2012 because of renewed risk aversion that causes unwinding of carry trades from zero interest rates to commodity futures exposures. In the first months of 2013, new carry trades caused higher worldwide inflation. Inflation of producer prices returned in the US and Japan in Dec 2013-Jan 2014. Lower inflation recently originates in portfolio reallocations away from commodity exposures into equities. Unconventional monetary policy fails in stimulating the overall real economy, merely introducing undesirable instability because monetary authorities cannot control allocation of floods of money at zero interest rates to carry trades into risk financial assets. The economy is constrained in a suboptimal allocation of resources that monetary policy perpetuates along a continuum of short-term periods. The result is long-term or dynamic inefficiency in the form of a trajectory of economic activity that is lower than what would be attained with rules instead of discretionary authorities in monetary policy (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/recovery-without-hiring-in-lost.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/increase-in-valuations-of-risk_14.html). Inflation of producer prices returned in the US and Japan in Dec 2013-Jan 2014 and fell in Mar 2014 as part of the general instability of economic and financial variables. Inflation returned in Apr-Jun 2014 with reallocations of portfolios toward commodities during various geopolitical events. Inflation is subdued in Jul-2014-Apr 2015 with reallocations of portfolios away from commodities, returning in May-Jun 2015 for some countries. Prices fell in multiple countries in Jul-Oct 2015 with mixed behavior in Nov-Dec 2015 and into Jan-Mar 2016. There is higher inflation in many countries and areas in Mar-Jun 2016. Prices fell in various indexes in Jul 2016 with increases in some price indexes in Aug-Sep 2016 and Oct 2016 with mixed behavior in Nov 2016. Prices increased in Dec 2016 and Jan 2017, with increases mostly at lower rates in Feb 2017. Prices decreased in some indexes in Mar 2017 and increased in Apr 2017, decreasing in May-Jul 2017. Prices increased in Aug-Nov 2017, increasing in Dec 2017 in multiple indexes. Some indexes increased in Jan-Feb 2018 while others decreased. Some indexes increased in Mar 2018 and some decreased in Apr 2018. Some prices increased in May-Jul 2018 and some declined in Aug-Sep 2018 with exceptions of increases. Prices increased in Oct 2018. Some prices decreased in Nov 2018. Several prices decreased in Dec 2018 to Jan 2019. Prices increased in Feb-Apr 2019. Several prices decreased in May-Jun 2019. Some prices increased in Jul 2019 and several decreased in Aug 2019. Some prices decreased in Sep 2019. Several prices increased in Oct 2019. There were mixed increases and decreases in Nov 2019. Some prices increased in Dec 2019 to Jan 2020. Several prices decreased in Feb-Apr 2020. Some prices increased in May-Jun 2020. Several prices increased in Jun-Jul 2020.

Table IA-1, Annual Equivalent Rates of Producer Price Indexes

Index 2011-2020	AE ∆%
US Producer Finished Goods Price Index
AE ∆% Jun-Jul 2020	4.3
AE ∆% May 2020	31.4
AE ∆% Feb-Apr 2020	-19.9
AE ∆% Jan 2020	0.0
AE ∆% Oct-Dec 2019	4.9
AE ∆% Aug-Sep 2019	-2.4
AE ∆% Jul 2019	3.7
AE ∆% May-Jun 2019	-3.0
AE ∆% Feb-Apr 2019	8.3
AE ∆% Nov 2018-Jan 2019	-7.7
AE ∆% Oct 2018	8.7
AE ∆% Aug-Sep 2018	1.8
AE ∆% Jun-Jul 2018	1.8
AE ∆% May 2018	8.7
AE ∆% Apr 2018	-3.5
AE ∆% Mar 2018	2.4
AE ∆% Feb 2018	2.4
AE ∆% Jan 2018	3.7
AE ∆% Dec 2017	1.2
AE ∆% Oct-Nov 2017	6.8
AE ∆% Aug-Sep 2017	8.7
AE ∆% Jul 2017	-1.2
AE ∆% Jun 2017	2.4
AE ∆% May 2017	-9.2
AE ∆% Apr 2017	4.9
AE ∆% Mar 2017	1.2
AE ∆% Feb 2017	3.7
AE ∆% Jan 2017	8.7
AE ∆% Dec 2016	11.4
AE ∆% Nov 2016	-3.5
AE ∆% Sep-Oct 2016	6.2
AE ∆% Aug 2016	-3.5
AE ∆% Jul 2016	-1.2
AE ∆% Jun 2016	8.7
AE ∆% Mar-May 2016	3.7
AE ∆% Dec 2015-Feb 2016	-6.6
AE ∆% Nov 2015	1.2
AE ∆% Aug-Oct 2015	-7.4
AE ∆% Jul 2015	-1.2
AE ∆% May-Jun 2015	10.7
AE ∆% Apr 2015	-8.1
AE ∆% Mar 2015	4.9
AE ∆% Feb 2015	1.2
AE ∆% Dec 2014-Jan 2015	-17.6
AE ∆% Aug-Nov 2014	-2.7
AE ∆% Apr-Jul 2014	0.9
AE ∆% Mar 2014	3.7
AE ∆% Dec 2013-Feb 2014	5.7
AE ∆% Sep-Nov 2013	0.8
AE ∆% May-Aug 2013	2.7
AE ∆% Mar-Apr 2013	-7.0
AE ∆% Jan-Feb 2013	7.4
AE ∆% Oct-Dec 2012	-2.4
AE ∆% Aug-Sep 2012	13.4
AE ∆% Jun-Jul 2012	-1.2
AE ∆% Apr-May 2012	-4.1
AE ∆% Jan-Mar 2012	3.2
AE ∆% Oct-Dec 2011	0.0
AE ∆% Jul-Sep 2011	4.1
AE ∆% May-Jun 2011	0.6
AE ∆% Jan-Apr 2011	11.1
US Final Demand Producer Price Index
AE ∆% Jul 2020	7.4
AE ∆% Jun 2020	-2.4
AE ∆% May 2020	4.9
AE ∆% Feb-Apr 2020	-7.0
AE ∆% Dec-Jan 2020	3.7
AE ∆% Oct-Nov 2019	1.2
AE ∆% Sep 2019	-3.5
AE ∆% Jun-Aug 2019	0.8
AE ∆% May 2019	2.4
AE ∆% Feb-Apr 2019	4.1
AE ∆% Dec 2018-Jan 2019	-2.4
AE ∆% Nov 2018	-1.2
AE ∆% Sep-Oct 2018	5.5
AE ∆% Jul-Aug 2018	1.2
AE ∆% Apr-Jun 2018	3.2
AE ∆% Jan-Mar 2018	4.1
AE ∆% Dec 2017	0.0
AE ∆% Aug-Nov 2017	4.9
AE ∆% Jul 2017	1.2
AE ∆% May-Jun 2017	0.4
AE ∆% Apr 2017	4.9
AE ∆% Mar 2017	2.4
AE ∆% Feb 2017	0.0
AE ∆% Jan 2017	4.9
AE ∆% Nov-Dec 2016	3.0
AE ∆% Oct 2016	2.4
AE ∆% Sep 2016	4.9
AE ∆% Aug 2016	-2.4
AE ∆% Jul 2016	-1.2
AE ∆% Apr-Jun 2016	3.7
AE ∆% Feb-Mar 2016	-1.8
AE ∆% Jan 2016	4.9
AE ∆% Dec 2015	-1.2
AE ∆% Nov 2015	1.2
AE ∆% Sep-Oct 2015	-4.1
AE ∆% Aug 2015	-2.4
AE ∆% May-Jul 2015	3.7
AE ∆% Apr 2015	-2.4
AE ∆% Mar 2015	2.4
AE ∆% Jan-Feb 2015	-6.4
AE ∆% Nov-Dec 2014	-3.0
AE ∆% Oct 2014	2.4
AE ∆% Aug-Sep 2014	-1.2
AE ∆% Mar-Jul 2014	2.4
AE ∆% Dec 2013-Feb 2014	2.4
AE ∆% Sep-Nov 2013	1.6
AE ∆% May-Aug 2013	1.8
AE ∆% Mar-Apr 2013	-1.2
AE ∆% Jan-Feb 2013	3.0
AE ∆% Oct-Dec 2012	0.8
AE ∆% Aug-Sep 2012	6.2
AE ∆% Jun-Jul 2012	-2.4
AE ∆% Apr-May 2012	1.2
AE ∆% Jan-Mar 2012	3.7
AE ∆% Oct-Dec 2011	-0.8
AE ∆% Jul-Sep 2011	3.2
AE ∆% May-Jun 2011	2.4
AE ∆% Jan-Apr 2011	7.4
Japan Corporate Goods Price Index
AE ∆% Jun-Jul 2020	7.4
AE ∆% Feb-May 2020	-9.7
AE ∆% Nov 2019-Jan 2020	1.6
AE ∆% Oct-2019	14.0
AE ∆% Jul-Sep 2019	-1.2
AE ∆% May-Jun 2019	-4.1
AE ∆% Feb-Apr 2019	4.1
AE ∆% Nov 2018-Jan 2019	-5.8
AE ∆% Sep-Oct 2018	3.7
AE ∆% Aug 2018	0.0
AE ∆% Apr-Jul 2018	4.9
AE ∆% Feb-Mar 2018	-0.6
AE ∆% Dec 2017-Jan 2018	3.0
AE ∆% Sep-Nov 2017	4.5
AE ∆% Jul-Aug 2017	1.8
AE ∆% May-Jun 2017	0.6
AE ∆% Feb-Apr 2017	2.8
AE ∆% Nov 2016-Jan 2017	7.0
AE ∆% Aug-Oct 2016	-1.2
AE ∆% Jun-Jul 2016	-0.6
AE ∆% May 2016	0.0
AE ∆% Feb-Apr 2016	-3.2
AE ∆% Dec 2015-Jan 2016	-8.6
AE ∆% Nov 2015	0.0
AE ∆% Aug-Oct 2015	-7.0
AE ∆% Jun-Jul 2015	-3.0
AE ∆% Mar-May 2015	1.6
AE ∆% Jan-Feb 2015	-7.6
AE ∆% Aug-Dec 2014	-4.5
AE ∆% Apr-Jul 2014	11.6
AE ∆% Feb-Mar 2014	-1.2
AE ∆% Dec 2013-Jan 2014	3.0
AE ∆% Oct-Nov 2013	-0.6
AE ∆% Dec 2012-Sep 2013	3.3
AE ∆% Oct-Nov 2012	-3.0
AE ∆% Aug-Sep 2012	2.4
AE ∆% May-Jul 2012	-5.1
AE ∆% Feb-Apr 2012	2.0
AE ∆% Dec 2011-Jan 2012	-0.6
AE ∆% Jul-Nov 2011	-2.1
AE ∆% May-Jun 2011	-1.2
AE ∆% Jan-Apr 2011	5.5
China Producer Price Index
AE ∆% Jun-Jul 2020	4.9
AE ∆% Feb-May 2020	-9.2
AE ∆% Nov 2019-Jan 2020	-0.4
AE ∆% Sep-Oct 2019	1.2
AE ∆% Jun-Aug 2019	-2.4
AE ∆% Mar-May 2019	2.4
AE ∆% Nov 2018-Feb 2019	-5.6
AE ∆% Aug-Oct 2018	5.7
AE ∆% May-Jul 2018	3.2
AE ∆% Feb-Apr 2018	-2.0
AE ∆% Jan 2018	3.7
AE ∆% Aug-Dec 2017	9.8
AE ∆% Jul 2017	2.4
AE ∆% Apr-Jun 2017	-3.5
AE ∆% Jan-Mar 2017	7.0
AE ∆% Nov-Dec 2016	20.3
AE ∆% Sep-Oct 2016	11.3
AE ∆% Jul-Aug 2016	2.4
AE ∆% Jun 2016	-2.4
AE ∆% Mar-May 2016	7.0
AE ∆% Jan-Feb 2016	-4.7
AE ∆% Sep-Dec 2015	-5.6
AE ∆% Jun-Aug 2015	-7.3
AE ∆% Mar-May 2015	-2.0
AE ∆% Jan-Feb 2015	-10.3
AE ∆% Nov-Dev 2014	-6.4
AE ∆% Oct 2013-Oct 2014	-2.2
AE ∆% Aug-Sep 2013	1.8
AE ∆% Mar-Jul 2013	-4.9
AE ∆% Jan-Feb 2013	2.4
AE ∆% Nov-Dec 2012	-1.2
AE ∆% Oct 2012	2.4
AE ∆% May-Sep 2012	-5.8
AE ∆% Feb-Apr 2012	2.4
AE ∆% Dec 2011-Jan 2012	-2.4
AE ∆% Jul-Nov 2011	-3.1
AE ∆% Jan-Jun 2011	6.4
Euro Zone Industrial Producer Prices
AE ∆% Jun 2020	8.7
AE ∆% Feb-May 2020	-13.5
AE ∆% Dec-Jan 2019	1.8
AE ∆% Sep-Nov 2019	1.8
AE ∆% Aug 2019	-5.8
AE ∆% Jul 2019	1.2
AE ∆% Jun 2019	-7.0
AE ∆% Mar-May 2019	-2.0
AE ∆% Jan-Feb 2019	2.4
AE ∆% Nov-Dec 2018	-6.4
AE ∆% Jul-Oct 2018	7.8
AE ∆% May-Jun 2018	8.1
AE ∆% Feb-Apr 2018	0.0
AE ∆% Dec-Jan 2017	3.7
AE ∆% Sep-Nov 2017	5.3
AE ∆% Aug 2017	3.7
AE ∆% May-Jul 2017	-1.6
AE ∆% Feb-Apr 2017	-1.2
AE ∆% Dec 2016-Jan 2017	11.3
AE ∆% Oct-Nov 2016	5.5
AE ∆% Sep 2016	2.4
AE ∆% Aug 2016	-2.4
AE ∆% Jul 2016	4.9
AE ∆% May-Jun 2016	7.4
7AE ∆% Apr 2016	-4.7
AE ∆% Mar 2016	3.7
AE ∆% Dec 2015-Feb 2016	-9.2
AE ∆% Oct-Nov 2015	-3.0
AE ∆% Jul-Sep 2015	-5.1
AE ∆% Apr-Jun 2015	0.0
AE ∆% Feb-Mar 2015	4.9
AE ∆% Dec 2014-Jan 2015	-11.9
AE ∆% Oct-Nov 2014	-3.5
AE ∆% Sep 2014	2.4
AE ∆% Jul-Aug 2014	-3.0
AE ∆% Jun 2014	2.4
AE ∆% Jan-May 2014	-2.6
AE ∆% Dec 2013	2.4
AE ∆% Oct-Nov 2013	-3.0
AE ∆% Jul-Sep 2013	1.2
AE ∆% Mar-Jun 2013	-3.8
AE ∆% Jan-Feb 2013	3.7
AE ∆% Nov-Dec 2012	-3.0
AE ∆% Sep-Oct 2012	0.6
AE ∆% Jul-Aug 2012	7.4
AE ∆% Apr-Jun 2012	-2.0
AE ∆% Jan-Mar 2012	7.4
AE ∆% Oct-Dec 2011	0.4
AE ∆% Jul-Sep 2011	2.8
AE ∆% May-Jun 2011	-0.6
AE ∆% Jan-Apr 2011	11.3
Germany Producer Price Index
AE ∆% Feb 2019	-1.2 NSA -2.4 SA
AE ∆% Jan 2019	4.9 NSA 2.4 SA
AE ∆% Dec 2018	-4.7 NSA -1.2 SA
AE ∆% Nov 2018	1.2 NSA 2.4 SA
AE ∆% Sep-Oct 2018	4.9 NSA 4.3 SA
AE ∆% Jun-Aug 2018	3.7 NSA 3.7 SA
AE ∆% Apr-May 2018	5.5 NSA 4.9 SA
AE ∆% Mar-2018	1.2 NSA 2.4 SA
AE ∆% Feb 2018	-1.2 NSA 1.2 SA
AE ∆% Jan 2018	6.2 NSA 2.4 SA
AE ∆% Nov-Dec 2017	1.8 NSA 1.8 SA
AE ∆% Sep-Oct 2017	3.0 NSA 2.4 SA
AE ∆% Jul-Aug 2017	1.8 NSA 2.4 SA
AE ∆% May-Jun 2017	-0.6 NSA -0.6 SA
AE ∆% Apr 2017	3.7 NSA 2.4 SA
AE ∆% Feb-Mar 2017	1.8 NSA 3.7 SA
AE ∆% Oct 2016-Jan 2017	5.9 NSA 4.9 SA
AE ∆% Aug-Sep 2016	-1.2 NSA 0.6 SA
AE ∆% May-Jul 2016	3.7 NSA 2.0 SA
AE ∆% Apr 2016	2.4 NSA -0.0 SA
AE ∆% Mar 2016	-1.2 NSA -1.2 SA
AE ∆% Dec 2015-Feb 2016	-5.5 NSA -3.5 SA
AE ∆% Nov 2015	-3.5 NSA -3.5 SA
AE ∆% Aug-Oct 2015	-4.7 NSA -3.5 SA
AE ∆% May-Jul 2015	-0.4 NSA -2.0 SA
AE ∆% Feb-Apr 2015	1.2 NSA -0.4 SA
AE ∆% Oct 2014-Jan 2015	-4.1 NSA -2.4 SA
AE ∆% Jan-Sep 2014	-1.2 NSA -1.5 SA
AE ∆% Dec 2013	1.2 NSA 2.4 SA
AE ∆% Oct-Nov 2013	-1.8 NSA –1.8 SA
AE ∆% Sep 2013	3.7 NSA – 0.0 SA
AE ∆% May-Aug 2013	-1.8 NSA –1.2 SA
AE ∆% Feb-Apr 2013	-2.4 NSA –2.0 SA
AE ∆% Jan 2013	7.4 NSA 2.4 SA
AE ∆% Oct-Dec 2012	-0.8 NSA 0.8 SA
AE ∆% Aug-Sep 2012	4.3 NSA 2.4 SA
AE ∆% May-Jul 2012	-2.8 NSA -0.4 SA
AE ∆% Feb-Apr 2012	4.9 NSA 2.4 SA
AE ∆% Dec 2011-Jan 2012	0.0 NSA –1.2 SA
AE ∆% Oct-Nov 2011	0.6 NSA 1.8 SA
AE ∆% Jul-Sep 2011	2.0 NSA 2.8 SA
AE ∆% May-Jun 2011	0.6 NSA 3.7 SA
AE ∆% Jan-Apr 2011	10.0 NSA 5.9 SA
France Producer Price Index for the French Market
AE ∆% Jun 2020	8.7
AE ∆% Mar-May 2020	-16.7
AE ∆% Jan-Feb 2020	-5.3
AE ∆% Dec 2019	1.2
AE ∆% Nov 2019	18.2
AE ∆% Aug-Oct 2019	0.0
AE ∆% Jul 2019	4.9
AE ∆% Apr-Jun 2019	-7.7
AE ∆% Mar 2019	-1.2
AE ∆% Jan-Feb 2019	4.9
AE ∆% Dec 2018	-12.4
AE ∆% Aug-Nov 2018	5.2
AE ∆% Jul 2018	7.4
AE ∆% Jun 2018	0.0
AE ∆% May 2018	8.7
AE ∆% Apr 2018	-9.2
AE ∆% Feb-Mar 2018	1.2
AE ∆% Dec 2017-Jan 2018	1.8
AE ∆% Nov 2017	22.4
AE ∆% Aug-Oct 2017	4.5
AE ∆% Jul 2017	1.2
AE ∆% Apr-Jun 2017	-4.7
AE ∆% Feb-Mar 2017	-4.1
AE ∆% Oct 2016-Jan 2017	9.4
AE ∆% Sep 2016	3.7
AE ∆% Jul-Aug 2016	0.0
AE ∆% May-Jun 2016	5.5
AE ∆% Apr 2016	-7.0
AE ∆% Mar 2016	2.4
AE ∆% Feb 2016	-4.7
AE ∆% Dec 2015-Jan 2016	-12.4
AE ∆% Sep-Nov 2015	1.2
AE ∆% Aug 2015	-12.4
AE ∆% Jun-Jul 2015	-0.6
AE ∆% Apr-May 2015	-4.1
AE ∆% Feb-Mar 2015	6.8
AE ∆% Oct 2014-Jan 2015	-5.6
AE ∆% Sep 2014	7.4
AE ∆% Jan-Aug 2014	-4.0
AE ∆% Nov-Dec 2013	5.5
AE ∆% Oct 2013	-2.4
AE ∆% Jul-Sep 2013	4.5
AE ∆% Apr-Jun 2013	-10.7
AE ∆% Jan-Mar 2013	5.3
AE ∆% Nov-Dec 2012	-4.1
AE ∆% Jul-Oct 2012	7.4
AE ∆% Apr-Jun 2012	-4.3
AE ∆% Jan-Mar 2012	5.7
AE ∆% Oct-Dec 2011	2.8
AE ∆% Jul-Sep 2011	3.2
AE ∆% May-Jun 2011	-1.8
AE ∆% Jan-Apr 2011	10.0
Italy Producer Price Index
AE ∆% Jun 2020	8.7
AE ∆% May 2020	-3.5
AE ∆% Mar-Apr 2020	-25.3
AE ∆% Jan-Feb 2020	-5.3
AE ∆% Nov 2019-Dec 2019	-1.8
AE ∆% Sep-Oct 2019	0.6
AE ∆% Jun-Aug 2019	-5.1
AE ∆% May 2019	1.2
AE ∆% Jan-Apr 2019	-5.3
AE ∆% Nov-Dec 2018	-7.5
AE ∆% Jun-Oct 2018	12.4
AE ∆% May 2018	12.7
AE ∆% Apr 2018	-8.1
AE ∆% Jan-Mar 2018	5.3
AE ∆% Dec 2017	0.0
AE ∆% Sep-Nov 2017	3.2
AE ∆% Aug 2017	6.2
AE ∆% Jun-Jul 2017	-1.2
AE ∆% May 2017	-3.5
AE ∆% Apr 2017	1.2
AE ∆% Mar 2017	-2.4
AE ∆% Dec 2016-Feb 2017	8.3
AE ∆% Nov 2016	-1.2
AE ∆% Aug-Oct 2016	-2.0
AE ∆% May-Jul 2016	11.8
AE ∆% Apr 2016	-9.2
AE ∆% Mar 2016	2.4
AE ∆% Dec 2015-Feb 2016	-7.3
AE ∆% Oct-Nov 2015	-4.7
AE ∆% Jun-Sep 2015	-4.4
AE ∆% May 2015	3.7
AE ∆% Apr 2015	-2.4
AE ∆% Feb-Mar 2015	3.7
AE ∆% Dec 2014-Jan 2015	-14.0
AE ∆% Oct-Nov 2014	-3.5
AE ∆% Sep 2014	1.2
AE ∆% Jul-Aug 2014	-3.5
AE ∆% Jun 2014	2.4
AE ∆% Oct 2013-May 2014	-2.7
AE ∆% Jun-Sep 2013	0.3
AE ∆% Apr-May 2013	-3.5
AE ∆% Feb-Mar 2013	1.2
AE ∆% Sep 2012-Jan 2013	-5.2
AE ∆% Jul-Aug 2012	9.4
AE ∆% May-Jun 2012	-0.6
AE ∆% Mar-Apr 2012	6.8
AE ∆% Jan-Feb 2012	8.1
AE ∆% Oct-Dec 2011	2.0
AE ∆% Jul-Sep 2011	4.9
AE ∆% May-Jun 2011	1.8
AE ∆% Jan-April 2011	10.7
UK Output Prices
∆% Jun-Jul 2020	3.7
∆% Apr-May 2020	-5.8
∆% Feb-Mar 2020	-1.8
∆% Jan 2020	2.4
∆% Dec 2019	-1.2
∆% Aug-Nov 2019	-1.2
∆% Jul 2019	3.7
∆% Jun 2019	-1.2
∆% Mar-May 2019	2.8
∆% Jan-Feb 2019	1.8
∆% Dec 2018	-3.5
∆% Sep-Nov 2018	2.8
∆% Jul-Aug 2018	1.8
∆% Jun 2018	3.7
∆% Mar-May 2018	4.9
∆% Jan-Feb 2018	1.8
∆% Nov-Dec 2017	4.3
∆% Aug-Oct 2017	3.7
∆% May-Jul 2017	1.2
∆% Mar-Apr 2017	4.9
∆% Feb 2017	2.4
∆% Jan 2017	7.4
∆% Nov-Dec 2016	2.4
∆% Aug-Oct 2016	4.9
∆% May-Jul 2016	2.4
∆% Feb-Apr 2016	4.1
∆% Jan 2016	-1.2
∆% Sep-Dec 2015	-2.4
∆% Aug 2015	-5.8
∆% Jun-Jul 2015	-1.2
∆% Feb-May 2015	1.5
AE ∆% Nov 2014-Jan 2015	-4.3
AE ∆% Sep-Oct 2014	-4.7
AE ∆% Apr-Aug 2014	-0.7
AE ∆% Jan-Mar 2014	2.0
AE ∆% Sep-Dec 2013	-1.5
AE ∆% Jun-Aug 2013	2.0
AE ∆% Apr-May 2013	-0.6
AE ∆% Jan-Mar 2013	4.9
AE ∆% Nov-Dec 2012	-2.4
AE ∆% Jul-Oct 2012	3.0
AE ∆% May-Jun 2012	-3.5
AE ∆% Feb-Apr 2012	5.3
AE ∆% Nov 2011-Jan-2012	1.2
AE ∆% May-Oct 2011	1.6
AE ∆% Jan-Apr 2011	10.0
UK Input Prices
AE ∆% May-Jul 2020	22.8
AE ∆% Feb-Apr 2020	-34.9
AE ∆% Nov 2019-Jan 2020	8.3
AE ∆% Aug-Oct 2019	-8.8
AE ∆% Jul 2019	8.7
AE ∆% Jun 2019	-9.2
AE ∆% May 2019	0.0
AE ∆% Apr 2019	26.8
AE ∆% Mar 2019	-10.3
AE ∆% Feb 2019	12.7
AE ∆% Nov 2018-Jan 2019	-17.3
AE ∆% Aug-Oct 2018	15.8
AE ∆% Jun-Jul 2018	1.8
AE ∆% Apr-May 2018	24.5
AE ∆% Mar 2018	1.2
AE ∆% Feb 2018	-4.7
AE ∆% Dec 2017-Jan 2018	3.7
AE ∆% Aug-Nov 2017	18.5
AE ∆% May-Jul 2017	-3.9
AE ∆% Mar-Apr 2017	-6.4
AE ∆% Feb 2017	0.0
AE ∆% Dec 2016-Jan 2017	25.3
AE ∆% Nov 2016	-7.0
AE ∆% Oct 2016	67.7
AE ∆% Sep 2016	4.9
AE ∆% Aug 2016	3.7
AE ∆% May-Jul 2016	32.9
AE ∆% Feb-Apr 2016	12.2
AE ∆% Jan 2016	-14.5
AE ∆% Oct-Dec 2015	-7.4
AE ∆% Sep 2015	6.2
AE ∆% May-Aug 2015	-19.9
AE ∆% Feb-Apr 2015	6.6
AE ∆% Dec 2014-Jan 2015	-34.4
AE ∆% Jun-Nov 2014	-12.3
AE ∆% May 2014	2.4
AE ∆% Jan-Apr 2014	-7.8
AE ∆% Dec 2013	3.7
AE ∆% Aug-Nov 2013	-8.4
AE ∆% Jul 2013	18.2
AE ∆% Mar-Jun 2013	-9.5
AE ∆% Jan-Feb 2013	24.6
AE ∆% Sep-Dec 2012	3.0
AE ∆% Aug 2012	23.9
AE ∆% Apr-Jul 2012	-16.1
AE ∆% Jan-Mar 2012	14.9
AE ∆% Nov-Dec 2011	0.0
AE ∆% May-Oct 2011	-1.3
AE ∆% Jan-Apr 2011	30.6
AE ∆% Oct-Dec 2010	31.8