US Industrial Production Increased 3.0 Percent in Jul and 5.7 Percent
in Jun But Still 8.4 Percent Below The Level Before the Global Recession,
with Output in the US Reaching a High in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the Lockdown
of Economic Activity in the COVID-19 Event, United States Manufacturing
Underperforming in the
Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth
Underperforming Below Trend Worldwide, Squeeze of Economic Activity by Carry
Trades Induced by Zero Interest Rates, United States Economic Indicators Continuing
Recovery, Dollar Devaluation and Yuan Revaluation, Fluctuating Yields of
Sovereign Securities, Increase in Prices Worldwide, World
Cyclical Slow Growth, and Government Intervention in Globalization: Part II
Carlos M. Pelaez
© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009,
2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020.
I United States Industrial Production
IIB Squeeze of Economic Activity by Carry Trades Induced
by Zero Interest Rates
III World Financial Turbulence
IV Global Inflation
V World Economic
Slowdown
VA United States
VB Japan
VC China
VD Euro Area
VE Germany
VF France
VG Italy
VH United Kingdom
VI Valuation of Risk
Financial Assets
VII Economic
Indicators
VIII Interest Rates
IX Conclusion
References
Appendixes
Appendix I The Great Inflation
IIIB Appendix on Safe
Haven Currencies
IIIC Appendix on
Fiscal Compact
IIID Appendix on
European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort
IIIG Appendix on
Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis
United States manufacturing output from 1919 to 2020 monthly
is in Chart I-4 of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. The
second industrial revolution of Jensen (1993) is quite evident in the
acceleration of the rate of growth of output given by the sharper slope in the
1980s and 1990s. Growth was robust after the shallow recession of 2001 but
dropped sharply during the global recession after IVQ2007. Manufacturing output
recovered sharply but has not reached earlier levels and is losing momentum at
the margin. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from
trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and
Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 2.9
percent per year from Jul 1919 to Jul 2020. Growth at 2.9 percent per year
would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial
Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 155.1850 in Jul 2020. The actual
index NSA in Jul 2020 is 94.7916 which is 38.9 percent below trend. The
underperformance of manufacturing in Jul 2020 originates partly in the earlier
global recession augmented by the current global recession with output in the
US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19. Manufacturing grew at the
average annual rate of 3.3 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2006. Growth at 3.3
percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC,
Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 162.9490 in Jul
2020. The actual index NSA in Jul 2020 is 94.7916, which is 41.8 percent below
trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 1.6 percent between Dec 1986 and Jul
2020. Using trend growth of 1.6 percent per year, the index would increase to
132.2418 in Jul 2020. The output of manufacturing at 94.7916 in Jul 2020 is 28.3
percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Using the NAICS (North American Industry Classification
System), manufacturing output fell from the high of 110.5147 in Jun 2007 to the
low of 86.3800 in Apr 2009 or 21.8 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index
increased from 86.3800 in Apr 2009 to 95.7434 in Jul 2020 or 10.8 percent. The
NAICS manufacturing index increased at the annual equivalent rate of 3.5
percent from Dec 1986 to Dec 2006. Growth at 3.5 percent would increase the
NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 164.4646 in Jul
2020. The NAICS index at 95.7434 in Jul 2020 is 41.8 below trend. The NAICS
manufacturing output index grew at 1.7 percent annual equivalent from Dec 1999
to Dec 2006. Growth at 1.7 percent would raise the NAICS manufacturing output
index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 131.8850 in Jul 2020. The NAICS index at 95.7434
in Jul 2020 is 27.4 percent below trend under this alternative calculation.
Chart I-4, US, Manufacturing Output, 1919-2020
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm
Industrial production
increased 3.0 percent in Jul 2020 and increased 5.7 percent in Jun 2020 after
increasing 0.9 percent in May 2020, with all data seasonally adjusted. The
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System conducted the annual revision
of industrial production released on Mar 27, 2019 (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/revisions/Current/DefaultRev.htm):
“The Federal
Reserve has revised its index of industrial production (IP) and the related
measures of capacity and capacity utilization.[1] On net,
the revisions to the growth rates for total IP for recent years were small and
positive, with the estimates for 2016 and 2017 a bit higher and the estimates
for 2015 and 2018 slightly lower.[2] Total IP
is still reported to have increased from the end of the recession in mid-2009
through late 2014 before declining in 2015 and rebounding in mid-2016.
Subsequently, the index advanced around 7 1/2 percent over 2017 and 2018.
Capacity for
total industry expanded modestly in each year from 2015 to 2017 before
advancing 1 1/2 percent in 2018; it is expected to advance about 2 percent in
2019. Revisions for recent years were very small and showed slightly less
expansion in most years relative to earlier reports.
In the fourth
quarter of 2018, capacity utilization for total industry stood at 79.4 percent,
about 3/4 percentage point above its previous estimate and about 1/2 percentage
point below its long-run (1972–2018) average. The utilization rate in 2017 is
also higher than its previous estimate.”
The report of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System states (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/default.htm):
“Total industrial production rose
3.0 percent in July after increasing 5.7 percent in June; even so,
the index in July was 8.4 percent below its pre-pandemic February level.
Manufacturing output continued to improve in July, rising 3.4 percent.
Most major industries posted increases, though they were much smaller in
magnitude than the advances recorded in June. The largest gain in
July—28.3 percent—was registered by motor vehicles and parts; factory
production elsewhere advanced 1.6 percent. Mining production rose
0.8 percent after decreasing for five consecutive months. The output of
utilities increased 3.3 percent, as unusually warm temperatures increased
the demand for air conditioning. At 100.2 percent of its
2012 average, the level of total industrial production was
8.2 percent lower in July than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization
for the industrial sector increased 2.1 percentage points in July to
70.6 percent, a rate that is 9.2 percentage points below its long-run
(1972–2019) average but 6.4 percentage points above its low in April.” In the six months ending in Jul 2020, United
States national industrial production accumulated change of minus 8.2 percent
at the annual equivalent rate of minus 15.8 percent, which is lower than growth
of minus 8.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2020. Excluding growth of
0.1 percent in Feb 2019, growth in the remaining five months from Feb 2019 to
Jul 2020 accumulated to minus 8.3 percent or minus 18.8 percent annual
equivalent. Industrial production increased 5.7 percent in one of the past six
months, 3.0 percent in one month, 0.9 percent in one month, 0.1 percent in one
month, minus 12.8 percent in one month and minus 4.3 percent in one month.
Industrial production increased at annual equivalent 45.6 percent in the most
recent quarter from May 2020 to Jul 2020 and decreased at 51.3 percent annual
equivalent in the prior quarter from Feb 2020 to Apr 2020. Business equipment
accumulated change of minus 11.7 percent in the six months from Feb 2020 to Jul
2020, at the annual equivalent rate of minus 22.1 percent, which is lower than
growth of minus 13.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2020. The Fed
analyzes capacity utilization of total industry in its report (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm): ”
Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 2.1 percentage
points in July to 70.6 percent, a rate that is 9.2 percentage points
below its long-run (1972–2019) average but 6.4 percentage points above its
low in April.” United States
industry apparently decelerated to a lower growth rate followed by possible
acceleration, weakening growth in past months and deep contraction in the
global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.
Manufacturing decreased 22.3 percent from the peak in Jun 2007
to the trough in Apr 2009 and increased 18.3 percent from the trough in Apr
2009 to Dec 2019. Manufacturing increased 8.6 percent from the trough in Apr
2009 to Jul 2020. Manufacturing in Jul 2020 is lower by 15.6 percent relative
to the peak in Jun 2007. The
US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with
expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. US economic
growth has been at only 1.2 percent on average in the cyclical expansion in the
44 quarters from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2020 and in the global recession with output in
the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Boskin (2010Sep) measures
that the US economy grew at 6.2 percent in the first four quarters and 4.5
percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the second quarter of
1975; and at 7.7 percent in the first four quarters and 5.8 percent in the
first 12 quarters after the trough in the first quarter of 1983 (Professor
Michael J. Boskin, Summer of Discontent, Wall
Street Journal, Sep 2, 2010 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882304575465462926649950.html). There are
new calculations using the revision of US GDP and personal income data since
1929 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (http://bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) and the
first estimate of GDP for IIQ2020 (https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2020-07/gdp2q20_adv.pdf). The
average of 7.7 percent in the first four quarters of major cyclical expansions
is in contrast with the rate of growth in the first four quarters of the
expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010 of only 2.8 percent obtained by dividing GDP
of $15,557.3 billion in IIQ2010 by GDP of $15,134.1 billion in IIQ2009
{[($15,557.3/$15,134.1) -1]100 = 2.8%], or accumulating the quarter on quarter
growth rates (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/contraction-of-united-states-gdp-at-32_57.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/06/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html). The
expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1986 was at the average annual growth rate of 5.7 percent, 5.3 percent from
IQ1983 to IIIQ1986, 5.1 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1986, 5.0 percent from IQ1983
to IQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to
IIIQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to
IIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to
IVQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1989, 4.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1989,
4.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1989, 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1989. 4.5
percent from IQ1983 to IQ1990, 4.4 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1990, 4.3 percent
from IQ1983 to IIIQ1990, 4.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1990, 3.8 percent from
IQ1983 to IQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983
to IIIQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to
IQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to
IIIQ2019, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to
IQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to
IIIQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1993 and at 7.9 percent from IQ1983 to
IVQ1983 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/contraction-of-united-states-gdp-at-32_57.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/06/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html). The
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dates a contraction of the US from
IQ1990 (Jul) to IQ1991 (Mar) (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html). The
expansion lasted until another contraction beginning in IQ2001 (Mar). US GDP
contracted 1.3 percent from the pre-recession peak of $8983.9 billion of
chained 2009 dollars in IIIQ1990 to the trough of $8865.6 billion in IQ1991 (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). The US
maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions
at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire
cycle from IVQ2007 to IIQ2020 and in the global recession with output in the US
reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event would have accumulated to
44.7 percent. GDP in IIQ2020 would be $22,807.6 billion (in constant dollars of
2012) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $5601.8 billion than
actual $17,205.8 billion. There are more than five trillion dollars of GDP less
than at trend, explaining the 38.5 million unemployed or underemployed
equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 22.3 percent of the
effective labor force with the largest part originating in the global recession
with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/thirty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/07/increase-of-total-nonfarm-payroll-jobs.html). Unemployment is decreasing while employment is increasing in
initial adjustment of the lockdown of economic activity in the global recession
resulting from the COVID-19 event (https://www.bls.gov/cps/employment-situation-covid19-faq-june-2020.pdf). US GDP in IQ2020 is 24.6 percent lower than at trend. US GDP
grew from $15,762.0 billion in IVQ2007
in constant dollars to $17,205.8 billion in IQ2020 or 9.2 percent at the
average annual equivalent rate of 0.7 percent. Professor John H. Cochrane
(2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. Cochrane
(2016May02) measures GDP growth in the US at average 3.5 percent per year from
1950 to 2000 and only at 1.76 percent per year from 2000 to 2015 with only at
2.0 percent annual equivalent in the current expansion. Cochrane (2016May02)
proposes drastic changes in regulation and legal obstacles to private economic
activity. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the
expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final
periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for
recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of
expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not
required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic
growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas
(2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly
slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing.
There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for
example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The
long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 2.9 percent per year from
Jul 1919 to Jul 2020. Growth at 2.9 percent per year would raise the NSA index
of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987
in Dec 2007 to 155.1850 in Jul 2020. The actual index NSA in Jul 2020 is
94.7916 which is 38.9 percent below trend. The underperformance of
manufacturing in Jul 2020 originates partly in the earlier global recession augmented
by the current global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb
2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19. Manufacturing grew at the average
annual rate of 3.3 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2006. Growth at 3.3 percent
per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard
Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 162.9490 in Jul 2020.
The actual index NSA in Jul 2020 is 94.7916, which is 41.8 percent below trend.
Manufacturing output grew at average 1.6 percent between Dec 1986 and Jul 2020.
Using trend growth of 1.6 percent per year, the index would increase to
132.2418 in Jul 2020. The output of manufacturing at 94.7916 in Jul 2020 is
28.3 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Using the NAICS (North American Industry Classification
System), manufacturing output fell from the high of 110.5147 in Jun 2007 to the
low of 86.3800 in Apr 2009 or 21.8 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index
increased from 86.3800 in Apr 2009 to 95.7434 in Jul 2020 or 10.8 percent. The
NAICS manufacturing index increased at the annual equivalent rate of 3.5
percent from Dec 1986 to Dec 2006. Growth at 3.5 percent would increase the
NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 164.4646 in Jul
2020. The NAICS index at 95.7434 in Jul 2020 is 41.8 below trend. The NAICS
manufacturing output index grew at 1.7 percent annual equivalent from Dec 1999 to
Dec 2006. Growth at 1.7 percent would raise the NAICS manufacturing output
index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 131.8850 in Jul 2020. The NAICS index at
95.7434 in Jul 2020 is 27.4 percent below trend under this alternative
calculation. Table I-13 provides national income by industry without capital
consumption adjustment (WCCA). “Private industries” or economic activities have
share of 87.2 percent in IIQ2020. Most of US national income is in the form of
services. In Jul 2020, there were 139.100 million nonfarm jobs NSA in the US,
according to estimates of the establishment survey of the Bureau of Labor
Statistics (BLS) (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm Table B-1). Total private jobs of 118.763 million NSA
in Jul 2020 accounted for 85.4 percent of total nonfarm jobs of 139.100
million, of which 12.185 million, or 10.3 percent of total private jobs and 8.8
percent of total nonfarm jobs, were in manufacturing. Private service-providing
jobs were 98.527 million NSA in Jun 2020, or 70.8 percent of total nonfarm jobs
and 83.0 percent of total private-sector jobs. Manufacturing has share of 9.2 percent in US national income in
IQ2020 and durable goods 5.5 percent, as shown in Table I-13. Most income in
the US originates in services. Subsidies and similar measures designed to
increase manufacturing jobs will not increase economic growth and employment
and may actually reduce growth by diverting resources away from currently
employment-creating activities because of the drain of taxation.
Table I-13, US, National Income without Capital Consumption
Adjustment by Industry, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates, Billions of Dollars,
% of Total
|
SAAR IVQ2019 |
% Total |
SAAR IQ2020 |
% Total |
|
|
National Income WCCA |
18,173.6 |
100.0 |
18,096.0 |
100.0 |
|
Domestic Industries |
17,892.6 |
98.5 |
17,852.8 |
98.7 |
|
Private Industries |
15,815.8 |
87.0 |
15,770.9 |
87.2 |
|
Agriculture |
145.3 |
0.8 |
147.4 |
0.8 |
|
Mining |
176.3 |
1.0 |
155.4 |
0.9 |
|
Utilities |
207.0 |
1.1 |
204.1 |
1.1 |
|
Construction |
946.1 |
5.2 |
954.2 |
5.3 |
|
Manufacturing |
1702.4 |
9.4 |
1672.1 |
9.2 |
|
Durable Goods |
1007.7 |
5.5 |
995.6 |
5.5 |
|
Nondurable Goods |
694.7 |
3.8 |
676.5 |
3.7 |
|
Wholesale Trade |
1015.0 |
5.6 |
1011.0 |
5.6 |
|
Retail Trade |
1210.6 |
6.7 |
1205.5 |
6.7 |
|
Transportation & WH |
604.3 |
3.3 |
588.9 |
3.3 |
|
Information |
686.5 |
3.8 |
692.4 |
3.8 |
|
Finance, Insurance, RE |
3183.6 |
17.5 |
3193.6 |
17.6 |
|
Professional & Business Services |
2716.9 |
14.9 |
2740.0 |
15.1 |
|
Education, Health Care |
1864.2 |
10.3 |
1871.2 |
10.3 |
|
Arts, Entertainment |
821.9 |
4.5 |
796.4 |
4.4 |
|
Other Services |
535.5 |
2.9 |
538.7 |
3.0 |
|
Government |
2076.8 |
11.4 |
2081.9 |
11.5 |
|
Rest of the World |
281.1 |
1.5 |
243.2 |
1.3 |
Notes: SSAR: Seasonally-Adjusted Annual Rate; Percentages
Calculates from Unrounded Data; WCCA: Without Capital Consumption Adjustment by
Industry; WH: Warehousing; RE, includes rental and leasing: Real Estate; Art,
Entertainment includes recreation, accommodation and food services; BS:
business services
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm
Motor vehicle sales and production in the US have been in long-term
structural change. Table VA-1A provides the data on new motor vehicle sales and
domestic car production in the US from 1990 to 2010. New motor vehicle sales
grew from 14,137 thousand in 1990 to the peak of 17,806 thousand in 2000 or
29.5 percent. In that same period, domestic car production fell from 6,231
thousand in 1990 to 5,542 thousand in 2000 or -11.1 percent. New motor vehicle
sales fell from 17,445 thousand in 2005 to 11,772 in 2010 or 32.5 percent while
domestic car production fell from 4,321 thousand in 2005 to 2,840 thousand in
2010 or 34.3 percent. In IIQ2018, light vehicle sales accumulated to 4,500,220,
which is higher by 1.8 percent relative to 4,419,349 a year earlier in IIQ2017
(http://www.motorintelligence.com/m_frameset.html). Total not seasonally adjusted light vehicle sales
reached 1260.9 thousands in Jul 2020, decreasing 12.7 percent from 1443.9
thousands in Jul 2019 (https://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gap_hist.xlsx https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product#collapse86). The
seasonally adjusted annual rate of light vehicle sales in the US reached 14.5
million in Jul 2020, higher than 13.1 million in Jun 2020 and lower than 17.0
million in Jul 2019 (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product#collapse86).
Table VA-1A, US, New Motor Vehicle Sales and Car Production,
Thousand Units 7
|
|
New Motor Vehicle Sales |
New Car Sales and Leases |
New Truck Sales and Leases |
Domestic Car Production |
|
1990 |
14,137 |
9,300 |
4,837 |
6,231 |
|
1991 |
12,725 |
8,589 |
4,136 |
5,454 |
|
1992 |
13,093 |
8,215 |
4,878 |
5,979 |
|
1993 |
14,172 |
8,518 |
5,654 |
5,979 |
|
1994 |
15,397 |
8,990 |
6,407 |
6,614 |
|
1995 |
15,106 |
8,536 |
6,470 |
6,340 |
|
1996 |
15,449 |
8,527 |
6,922 |
6,081 |
|
1997 |
15,490 |
8,273 |
7,218 |
5,934 |
|
1998 |
15,958 |
8,142 |
7,816 |
5,554 |
|
1999 |
17,401 |
8,697 |
8,704 |
5,638 |
|
2000 |
17,806 |
8,852 |
8,954 |
5,542 |
|
2001 |
17,468 |
8,422 |
9,046 |
4,878 |
|
2002 |
17,144 |
8,109 |
9,036 |
5,019 |
|
2003 |
16,968 |
7,611 |
9,357 |
4,510 |
|
2004 |
17,298 |
7,545 |
9,753 |
4,230 |
|
2005 |
17,445 |
7,720 |
9,725 |
4,321 |
|
2006 |
17,049 |
7,821 |
9,228 |
4,367 |
|
2007 |
16,460 |
7,618 |
8,683 |
3,924 |
|
2008 |
13,494 |
6,814 |
6.680 |
3,777 |
|
2009 |
10,601 |
5,456 |
5,154 |
2,247 |
|
2010 |
11,772 |
5,729 |
6,044 |
2,840 |
Source: US Census Bureau
https://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gap_hist.xlsx
Table VA-1B provides the seasonally adjusted annual rate of total
vehicle sales in the United States. The rate decreased from 17.740 in Jun
2019 and 17.214 in Feb 2020 to 9.089 in Apr 2020 in the lockdown of economic
activity in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a
high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The rate recovered to 12.499 in May
2020 and 13.411 in Jun 2020 in gradual return to economic activity. The rate
for Jul 2020 increased to 14.915 (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product#collapse86).
Table VA-1B,
United States, Annual Rate, Total Vehicle Sales, Seasonally Adjusted Annual
Rate
|
2019-01-01 |
17.305 |
|
2019-02-01 |
17.098 |
|
2019-03-01 |
17.830 |
|
2019-04-01 |
17.155 |
|
2019-05-01 |
17.862 |
|
2019-06-01 |
17.740 |
|
2019-07-01 |
17.527 |
|
2019-08-01 |
17.600 |
|
2019-09-01 |
17.643 |
|
2019-10-01 |
17.272 |
|
2019-11-01 |
17.437 |
|
2019-12-01 |
17.289 |
|
2020-01-01 |
17.311 |
|
2020-02-01 |
17.214 |
|
2020-03-01 |
11.809 |
|
2020-04-01 |
9.089 |
|
2020-05-01 |
12.499 |
|
2020-06-01 |
13.411 |
|
2020-07-01 |
14.915 |
Source:
Economic Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA
Data for Jul 2020: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product#collapse86
Chart I-4 of the Economic Research Division, Federal Reserve
Bank of St. Louis, provides the complete data set of SAAR of total car sales in
the US. The SAAR of 9.089 in Apr 2020 is lower than the lowest rate in the
global recession at 9.223 in Feb 2009.
Chart I-4, SA Annual Rate of Total Car Sales in the United
States, Jan 1976 to Jun 2020
Source:
Economic Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA
Chart I-5 of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
provides output of motor vehicles and parts in the United States from 1972 to
2020. Output virtually stagnated since the late 1990s with recent increase
followed by the highest decrease in the data history in the lockdown of
economic activity in the COVID-19 event.
Chart 1-5, US, Motor Vehicles and Parts Output, 1972-2020
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm
Chart I-6 of
the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System provides output of
computers and electronic products in the United States from 1972 to 2020. Output
accelerated sharply in the 1990s and 2000s and surpassed the level before the
global recession beginning in IVQ2007. There is sharp contraction in Mar-Apr
2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020
(https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. There is initial recovery in May-Jul 2020.
Chart I-6, US, Output of Computers and Electronic Products,
1972-2020
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm
Chart I-7 of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System shows that output of durable manufacturing accelerated in the 1980s and
1990s with slower growth in the 2000s perhaps because processes matured. Growth
was robust after the major drop during the global recession but appears to
vacillate in the final segment. There is sharp contraction in Mar-Apr 2020 in
the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. There is initial recovery
in May-Jul 2020.
Chart I-7, US, Output of Durable Manufacturing, 1972-2020
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm
Chart I-8 of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System provides output of aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment
from 1972 to 2020. There is long-term upward trend with oscillations around the
trend and cycles of large amplitude. There is sharp contraction in Mar-Apr 2020
in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.
Chart I-8, US, Output of Aerospace and Miscellaneous
Transportation Equipment, 1972-2020
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm
© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009,
2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020.
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