US Industrial Production Increased 3.0 Percent in Jul and 5.7 Percent
in Jun But Still 8.4 Percent Below The Level Before the Global Recession,
with Output in the US Reaching a High in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the Lockdown
of Economic Activity in the COVID-19 Event, United States Manufacturing
Underperforming in the
Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth
Underperforming Below Trend Worldwide, Squeeze of Economic Activity by Carry
Trades Induced by Zero Interest Rates, United States Economic Indicators Continuing
Recovery, Dollar Devaluation and Yuan Revaluation, Fluctuating Yields of
Sovereign Securities, Increase in Prices Worldwide, World
Cyclical Slow Growth, and Government Intervention in Globalization: Part IV
Carlos M. Pelaez
© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009,
2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020.
I United States Industrial Production
IIB Squeeze of Economic Activity by Carry Trades Induced
by Zero Interest Rates
III World Financial Turbulence
IV Global Inflation
V World Economic
Slowdown
VA United States
VB Japan
VC China
VD Euro Area
VE Germany
VF France
VG Italy
VH United Kingdom
VI Valuation of Risk
Financial Assets
VII Economic Indicators
VIII Interest Rates
IX Conclusion
References
Appendixes
Appendix I The Great Inflation
IIIB Appendix on Safe
Haven Currencies
IIIC Appendix on
Fiscal Compact
IIID Appendix on
European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort
IIIG Appendix on Deficit
Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey Index
in Table VA-1 provides continuing deterioration that started in Jun 2012 well
before Hurricane Sandy in Oct 2012. The current general index has been in
negative contraction territory from minus 2.7 in Aug 2012 to minus 7.5 in Jan
2013 and minus 1.1 in May 2013. The current general index changed to 3.7 in Aug
2020. The index of current orders has also been in negative contraction
territory from minus 3.0 in Aug 2012 to minus 10.9 in Jan 2013 and minus 7.8 in
Jun 2013. The index of current new orders changed to minus 1.7 in Aug 2020.
There is strength in the general index for the next six months at 34.3 in Aug
2020 and strength in new orders at 37.2.
Table VA-1, US,
New York Federal Reserve Bank Empire State Manufacturing Survey Index SA
|
Current
General Index |
Current New
Orders |
Future
General Index |
Future New
Orders |
|
|
10/31/2011 |
-5.7 |
1.7 |
14.5 |
19.4 |
|
11/30/2011 |
4.9 |
1.6 |
35.4 |
30.3 |
|
12/31/2011 |
11.7 |
10.1 |
45.4 |
43.2 |
|
1/31/2012 |
11.5 |
8.7 |
50.7 |
44.4 |
|
2/29/2012 |
17.5 |
7.1 |
46.3 |
37.6 |
|
3/31/2012 |
15.5 |
4.4 |
43.8 |
37.8 |
|
4/30/2012 |
7.8 |
4.1 |
40.5 |
38.4 |
|
5/31/2012 |
14.2 |
7.1 |
32.5 |
32 |
|
6/30/2012 |
1.6 |
3 |
27.9 |
28.4 |
|
7/31/2012 |
3.2 |
-3.3 |
24.4 |
21.8 |
|
8/31/2012 |
-2.7 |
-3 |
18.6 |
14.6 |
|
9/30/2012 |
-6.9 |
-10.3 |
27 |
28 |
|
10/31/2012 |
-4.6 |
-6.6 |
20.1 |
22.3 |
|
11/30/2012 |
-0.8 |
6.1 |
18.1 |
15.1 |
|
12/31/2012 |
-5.8 |
0.3 |
18.9 |
18.8 |
|
1/31/2013 |
-7.5 |
-10.9 |
21.7 |
23.7 |
|
2/28/2013 |
9.2 |
12.4 |
32 |
26.8 |
|
3/31/2013 |
4.9 |
4.7 |
34.7 |
33 |
|
4/30/2013 |
4.5 |
2.8 |
30.7 |
35.8 |
|
5/31/2013 |
-1.1 |
-3.1 |
26.6 |
30.3 |
|
6/30/2013 |
4.5 |
-7.8 |
27.8 |
22.4 |
|
7/31/2013 |
5.2 |
2.3 |
34.1 |
33.3 |
|
8/31/2013 |
9.7 |
2.8 |
35.7 |
30.8 |
|
9/30/2013 |
7.7 |
2.9 |
40.3 |
38.2 |
|
10/31/2013 |
3.6 |
9.5 |
41.3 |
36.9 |
|
11/30/2013 |
2.2 |
-2.5 |
38.1 |
39.4 |
|
12/31/2013 |
3.2 |
1.1 |
36.4 |
27.5 |
|
1/31/2014 |
12.8 |
8.1 |
35.8 |
37.5 |
|
2/28/2014 |
6.8 |
1.9 |
39.8 |
43.5 |
|
3/31/2014 |
2.8 |
0.8 |
34.6 |
36.4 |
|
4/30/2014 |
4.1 |
-0.4 |
39.1 |
35.2 |
|
5/31/2014 |
17.5 |
8.6 |
43.6 |
38.6 |
|
6/30/2014 |
15.8 |
13.1 |
41.2 |
44.3 |
|
7/31/2014 |
21 |
16.5 |
30.7 |
27.4 |
|
8/31/2014 |
16.1 |
15.6 |
45.5 |
50.2 |
|
9/30/2014 |
29.4 |
17.3 |
47 |
46.1 |
|
10/31/2014 |
6.2 |
1.8 |
42.3 |
42.2 |
|
11/30/2014 |
12 |
10.3 |
47.7 |
47.6 |
|
12/31/2014 |
-2.5 |
0.4 |
35.3 |
35.2 |
|
1/31/2015 |
12.5 |
6.9 |
46.6 |
41 |
|
2/28/2015 |
10.6 |
3.1 |
26.9 |
28.7 |
|
3/31/2015 |
3.7 |
-6.3 |
30.1 |
26.1 |
|
4/30/2015 |
0.1 |
-4.7 |
38.4 |
35.2 |
|
5/31/2015 |
3.9 |
3.7 |
31.2 |
35 |
|
6/30/2015 |
-4.8 |
-6.9 |
25.9 |
27 |
|
7/31/2015 |
1.7 |
-5 |
29.4 |
33.3 |
|
8/31/2015 |
-13.9 |
-14.6 |
32.4 |
30.5 |
|
9/30/2015 |
-12.7 |
-11.9 |
24.3 |
24.8 |
|
10/31/2015 |
-13.7 |
-15.3 |
22.8 |
22.9 |
|
11/30/2015 |
-9.7 |
-11.4 |
22.3 |
19.4 |
|
12/31/2015 |
-5.9 |
-6.1 |
33.1 |
23.7 |
|
1/31/2016 |
-16.6 |
-20.6 |
12.1 |
15.3 |
|
2/29/2016 |
-12.9 |
-10 |
13.6 |
19.5 |
|
3/31/2016 |
-2.5 |
3 |
24.2 |
36.8 |
|
4/30/2016 |
8.9 |
10.7 |
32 |
39.1 |
|
5/31/2016 |
-7.4 |
-2.8 |
29.2 |
24 |
|
6/30/2016 |
3.1 |
6.6 |
33.1 |
37.6 |
|
7/31/2016 |
1.4 |
-1.5 |
31 |
30.9 |
|
8/31/2016 |
-5.6 |
0.7 |
24.5 |
28.4 |
|
9/30/2016 |
-1.6 |
-6.4 |
35.8 |
33.5 |
|
10/31/2016 |
-9.5 |
-2.8 |
36.1 |
38.1 |
|
11/30/2016 |
1.9 |
2.9 |
29.9 |
26.8 |
|
12/31/2016 |
9.6 |
9.3 |
47.2 |
45 |
|
1/31/2017 |
7.5 |
6.8 |
49.5 |
40.3 |
|
2/28/2017 |
20.1 |
13.5 |
39.2 |
39.6 |
|
3/31/2017 |
15.6 |
17 |
36.4 |
33.9 |
|
4/30/2017 |
6.2 |
9.9 |
43.2 |
36.1 |
|
5/31/2017 |
0.7 |
-2.2 |
40.8 |
35.6 |
|
6/30/2017 |
18.8 |
16.1 |
41.3 |
42 |
|
7/31/2017 |
11.8 |
13.8 |
36.6 |
34.9 |
|
8/31/2017 |
22.7 |
20 |
43.3 |
40.9 |
|
9/30/2017 |
23.6 |
23.7 |
42.5 |
44.9 |
|
10/31/2017 |
26.6 |
19.4 |
45.8 |
45 |
|
11/30/2017 |
19.1 |
18.2 |
48.9 |
50.5 |
|
12/31/2017 |
20.1 |
17 |
43.7 |
39.4 |
|
1/31/2018 |
19.4 |
16.6 |
49.1 |
48.5 |
|
2/28/2018 |
17.5 |
14.9 |
48.4 |
45.4 |
|
3/31/2018 |
23.5 |
16.1 |
43.1 |
42.8 |
|
4/30/2018 |
17.4 |
11.7 |
23.5 |
22.8 |
|
5/31/2018 |
17 |
15.9 |
32.2 |
34.9 |
|
6/30/2018 |
25.8 |
21.5 |
38.5 |
35.5 |
|
7/31/2018 |
21.6 |
19.2 |
31 |
36.1 |
|
8/31/2018 |
24.1 |
15.8 |
33.8 |
35.6 |
|
9/30/2018 |
19 |
16.1 |
32.6 |
35.5 |
|
10/31/2018 |
19.4 |
20.5 |
30.3 |
35.6 |
|
11/30/2018 |
21.1 |
16.6 |
32.7 |
37 |
|
12/31/2018 |
11.1 |
12.4 |
27.1 |
30.3 |
|
1/31/2019 |
4.8 |
6.3 |
21.2 |
21.7 |
|
2/28/2019 |
10.3 |
8.1 |
30.9 |
34.4 |
|
3/31/2019 |
5.1 |
3.6 |
27.9 |
29 |
|
4/30/2019 |
9.4 |
7.4 |
17.4 |
24.3 |
|
5/31/2019 |
14.4 |
8.2 |
29.7 |
33 |
|
6/30/2019 |
-6.4 |
-9.7 |
25.5 |
28.4 |
|
7/31/2019 |
4.2 |
-0.4 |
29.3 |
34.2 |
|
8/31/2019 |
4.2 |
5.6 |
25.1 |
31.1 |
|
9/30/2019 |
2.2 |
1.9 |
15.5 |
23.4 |
|
10/31/2019 |
3.3 |
3.7 |
17.8 |
24 |
|
11/30/2019 |
2.5 |
3.1 |
19.8 |
25.2 |
|
12/31/2019 |
3.3 |
1.7 |
26.1 |
30.8 |
|
1/31/2020 |
4.8 |
6.6 |
23.6 |
31.4 |
|
2/29/2020 |
12.9 |
22.1 |
22.9 |
27.5 |
|
3/31/2020 |
-21.5 |
-9.3 |
1.2 |
17.6 |
|
4/30/2020 |
-78.2 |
-66.3 |
7 |
11.7 |
|
5/31/2020 |
-48.5 |
-42.4 |
29.1 |
35 |
|
6/30/2020 |
-0.2 |
-0.6 |
56.5 |
52.9 |
|
7/31/2020 |
17.2 |
13.9 |
38.4 |
41.9 |
|
8/31/2020 |
3.7 |
-1.7 |
34.3 |
37.2 |
Source: Federal
Reserve Bank of New York
https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overview.html
Chart VA-1 of the Federal Reserve Bank of New
York provides indexes of current and expected economic activity. There were
multiple contractions in current activity after the global recession shown in
shade. Current activity is weakening relative to strong recovery in the initial
expansion in 2010 and 2011 with recent oscillating recovery and weakness. There
is sharp improvement in the current index by strong positive reading with
strong improvement in the future index in positive reading. There is
deterioration in Aug 2020.
Chart VA-1, US,
US, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Diffusion Index of Current and Expected
Activity, Seasonally Adjusted
Source: Federal
Reserve Bank of New York
https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overview.html
Table VA-2 shows improvement after prior
deterioration followed by current soft improvement of the Business Outlook
survey of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. There is sharp
deterioration in Mar-May 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a
high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. There is major
return to expansion in Jun 2020. The general index moved out of contraction of
5.3 in Feb 2013 to expansion at 17.2 in Aug 2020. New orders moved from 0.6 in
Feb 2013 to expansion at 19.0 in Aug 2020. There is expansion in the future
general index at 38.8 in Aug 2020 and in future new orders at 55.1 in Aug 2020.
Table VA-2, US,
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey, SA
|
Current
General Index |
Current New
Orders |
Future
General Index |
Future New
Orders |
|
|
Jan-11 |
16.5 |
20.1 |
43.8 |
35.9 |
|
Feb-11 |
28.9 |
19.8 |
41.9 |
38.7 |
|
Mar-11 |
36.4 |
34.1 |
57.0 |
55.5 |
|
Apr-11 |
13.0 |
13.7 |
35.7 |
30.9 |
|
May-11 |
6.2 |
8.3 |
26.2 |
25.3 |
|
Jun-11 |
-0.5 |
-5.2 |
8.5 |
8.6 |
|
Jul-11 |
7.1 |
4.1 |
28.6 |
32.2 |
|
Aug-11 |
-19.5 |
-17.5 |
12.6 |
26.6 |
|
Sep-11 |
-10.7 |
-5.6 |
18.1 |
19.6 |
|
Oct-11 |
6.2 |
5.9 |
26.1 |
28.6 |
|
Nov-11 |
4.0 |
1.5 |
36.4 |
36.2 |
|
Dec-11 |
2.4 |
4.4 |
33.7 |
38.6 |
|
Jan-12 |
7.5 |
10.7 |
43.4 |
43.5 |
|
Feb-12 |
10.4 |
11.6 |
30.3 |
32.2 |
|
Mar-12 |
8.8 |
-0.1 |
30.4 |
37.1 |
|
Apr-12 |
5.7 |
0.6 |
39.9 |
42.4 |
|
May-12 |
-0.8 |
2.3 |
24.9 |
35.5 |
|
Jun-12 |
-12.6 |
-17.8 |
25.4 |
34.3 |
|
Jul-12 |
-12.7 |
-3.6 |
21.5 |
25.6 |
|
Aug-12 |
-2.6 |
1.6 |
20 |
25.5 |
|
Sep-12 |
0.2 |
0.7 |
31.6 |
42.8 |
|
Oct-12 |
-1.1 |
-4.7 |
17.1 |
20.7 |
|
Nov-12 |
-10.6 |
-7.4 |
16.6 |
22.6 |
|
Dec-12 |
2.4 |
2.6 |
22.4 |
29 |
|
Jan-13 |
-1.4 |
-2 |
28.8 |
31.9 |
|
Feb-13 |
-5.3 |
0.6 |
32 |
39 |
|
Mar-13 |
2 |
0.1 |
35.5 |
38.1 |
|
Apr-13 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
30.6 |
34.4 |
|
May-13 |
0.2 |
-4 |
39.5 |
42.2 |
|
Jun-13 |
12.7 |
11.7 |
37.2 |
40 |
|
Jul-13 |
15.9 |
7.4 |
41.6 |
52.4 |
|
Aug-13 |
8.2 |
8.9 |
38.5 |
38.8 |
|
Sep-13 |
20.6 |
19.3 |
48.8 |
51.5 |
|
Oct-13 |
13.5 |
23.1 |
55.4 |
61.2 |
|
Nov-13 |
4.6 |
8.8 |
42 |
46 |
|
Dec-13 |
3.8 |
12 |
41.1 |
44.6 |
|
Jan-14 |
15.2 |
7.9 |
38 |
40.8 |
|
Feb-14 |
2.3 |
4.7 |
43.9 |
39.5 |
|
Mar-14 |
12.5 |
6.5 |
42.4 |
38.7 |
|
Apr-14 |
17 |
17.3 |
39.3 |
38.6 |
|
May-14 |
18.5 |
14.8 |
43.8 |
42.5 |
|
Jun-14 |
14.1 |
10.4 |
53.3 |
55.3 |
|
Jul-14 |
21.4 |
28.7 |
53.6 |
48.8 |
|
Aug-14 |
22.9 |
15.4 |
61.9 |
51.3 |
|
Sep-14 |
21.7 |
13.8 |
46.1 |
44.8 |
|
Oct-14 |
18.1 |
16.8 |
50.8 |
49 |
|
Nov-14 |
35.5 |
29.7 |
50.1 |
44.3 |
|
Dec-14 |
21.6 |
14.5 |
47.2 |
43.9 |
|
Jan-15 |
13.2 |
10.1 |
54 |
47 |
|
Feb-15 |
10.5 |
8.4 |
35 |
46.1 |
|
Mar-15 |
7.3 |
0.8 |
37.7 |
37.8 |
|
Apr-15 |
9.9 |
4.5 |
39.7 |
33.6 |
|
May-15 |
6.1 |
5.4 |
38.1 |
35.1 |
|
Jun-15 |
8.2 |
11.2 |
43.4 |
47.5 |
|
Jul-15 |
4.4 |
2.3 |
40.2 |
45.4 |
|
Aug-15 |
5.8 |
6.6 |
34.9 |
39.2 |
|
Sep-15 |
-3.8 |
10.5 |
36.8 |
41.7 |
|
Oct-15 |
-4.9 |
-6.4 |
34.8 |
36.4 |
|
Nov-15 |
-3.8 |
-7.6 |
37.5 |
44.3 |
|
Dec-15 |
-9 |
-8.9 |
18.6 |
29.7 |
|
Jan-16 |
-4 |
-3 |
18.3 |
21.3 |
|
Feb-16 |
-6.8 |
-6 |
15.8 |
20 |
|
Mar-16 |
9 |
5.5 |
26.9 |
35.6 |
|
Apr-16 |
-1 |
-0.5 |
39.9 |
43.6 |
|
May-16 |
-4.8 |
-1.7 |
39.7 |
40.3 |
|
Jun-16 |
4.4 |
-0.9 |
36.6 |
37.6 |
|
Jul-16 |
0.9 |
10.1 |
36 |
35.2 |
|
Aug-16 |
5.4 |
-1.5 |
41.9 |
42.8 |
|
Sep-16 |
12.1 |
2.8 |
37 |
38.3 |
|
Oct-16 |
10.5 |
19.4 |
36.2 |
40.2 |
|
Nov-16 |
9.4 |
19.4 |
29.8 |
35.1 |
|
Dec-16 |
22.6 |
15.5 |
45.5 |
44.8 |
|
Jan-17 |
24.8 |
24.9 |
54.7 |
52.3 |
|
Feb-17 |
39.7 |
35.1 |
50.3 |
49.2 |
|
Mar-17 |
32 |
31.4 |
56.4 |
59.1 |
|
Apr-17 |
23.7 |
28.5 |
46.2 |
55.5 |
|
May-17 |
34.3 |
25.2 |
40.2 |
49.5 |
|
Jun-17 |
28.2 |
27.3 |
38.3 |
39.6 |
|
Jul-17 |
20.4 |
5.3 |
38.5 |
44.6 |
|
Aug-17 |
20.7 |
22.9 |
42.4 |
50.2 |
|
Sep-17 |
24 |
26.7 |
54.1 |
58.6 |
|
Oct-17 |
27.2 |
21 |
46.4 |
43.6 |
|
Nov-17 |
23.1 |
26.5 |
47.9 |
49.1 |
|
Dec-17 |
29.3 |
29.3 |
50 |
54.6 |
|
Jan-18 |
23 |
9.6 |
45.4 |
48.2 |
|
Feb-18 |
30.7 |
29.5 |
40.1 |
49.7 |
|
Mar-18 |
23.8 |
30.3 |
46.8 |
50.2 |
|
Apr-18 |
25.3 |
22.2 |
43 |
41.1 |
|
May-18 |
32.2 |
41.3 |
41.5 |
43.7 |
|
Jun-18 |
21.7 |
21.2 |
38.3 |
41.2 |
|
Jul-18 |
20.8 |
24.9 |
26.8 |
29.8 |
|
Aug-18 |
10.1 |
12.1 |
36.8 |
36.8 |
|
Sep-18 |
21.3 |
18.5 |
36 |
35.9 |
|
Oct-18 |
20.5 |
15.5 |
31.9 |
39 |
|
Nov-18 |
10.6 |
12.2 |
26.4 |
39.1 |
|
Dec-18 |
10.9 |
14.8 |
29.1 |
36.3 |
|
Jan-19 |
14.8 |
16.7 |
29.7 |
31.8 |
|
Feb-19 |
-0.7 |
1.5 |
29 |
30.5 |
|
Mar-19 |
14.9 |
6.4 |
23.1 |
24.2 |
|
Apr-19 |
11 |
16 |
22.2 |
27 |
|
May-19 |
17.5 |
14.2 |
22.3 |
24.8 |
|
Jun-19 |
1.5 |
8 |
24.2 |
33.7 |
|
Jul-19 |
16.6 |
18.4 |
33.6 |
41.6 |
|
Aug-19 |
13.1 |
21.6 |
31.8 |
42 |
|
Sep-19 |
12.2 |
22.5 |
23.1 |
34.4 |
|
Oct-19 |
6.8 |
22.5 |
32.6 |
37.3 |
|
Nov-19 |
8.4 |
10.1 |
34.4 |
37.3 |
|
Dec-19 |
2.4 |
11.1 |
34.8 |
33.6 |
|
Jan-20 |
17 |
18.2 |
38.4 |
41.9 |
|
Feb-20 |
36.7 |
33.6 |
45.4 |
54 |
|
Mar-20 |
-12.7 |
-15.5 |
35.2 |
36.7 |
|
Apr-20 |
-56.6 |
-70.9 |
43 |
36.5 |
|
May-20 |
-43.1 |
-25.7 |
49.7 |
54.7 |
|
Jun-20 |
27.5 |
16.7 |
66.3 |
67.9 |
|
Jul-20 |
24.1 |
23 |
36 |
55.6 |
|
Aug-20 |
17.2 |
19 |
38.8 |
55.1 |
Source: Federal
Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org
Chart
VA-2 of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook
Survey provides the current and future general activity indexes from Jan 2008
to Aug 2020. The shaded areas are the recession cycle dates of the National
Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html).
The Philadelphia Fed index dropped during the initial period of recession and
then led the recovery, as industry overall. There was a second decline of the
index into 2011 followed now by what appeared as renewed strength from late
2011 into Jan 2012. There is decline to negative territory of the current
activity index in Nov 2012 and return to positive territory in Dec 2012 with
decline of current conditions into contraction in Jan-Feb 2013 and rebound to
mild expansion in Mar-Apr 2013. The index of current activity moved into
expansion in Jun-Oct 2013 with weakness in Nov-Dec 2013, improving in Jan 2014.
There is renewed deterioration in Feb 2014 with rebound in Apr-Sep 2014 and
mild deterioration in Oct 2014 followed by improvement in Nov 2014. The index
deteriorated in Jan-Feb 2015, stabilizing in Mar-May 2015 and improving in Jun
2015. The index deteriorated in Jul 2015, improved in Aug 2015 and deteriorated
in Sep-Oct 2015. The index shows contraction in Nov 2015 to Feb 2016 with
recovery in Mar 2016. There is deterioration in Apr-May 2016 with improvement
in Jun 2016 and deterioration in Jul 2016. There is improvement in Aug-Sep 2016
with moderate weakening in Oct-Nov 2016. The indexes improved sharply in Dec
2016 and Jan-Feb 2017, softening in Mar-Apr 2017. The current index weakened in
Jun 2017 with stability in the six-month forecast. The current index
deteriorated in Jul 2017 with improvement in the six-month forecast. The current
index deteriorated in Aug 2017 with improvement in the six-month forecast. The
current index improved in Sep 2017 with improvement in the six-month forecast.
The current index improved and the future index deteriorated in Oct 2017. There
is deterioration in Nov 2017 of the current index and improvement of the future
index. Both the current and future indexes improved in Dec 2017, deteriorating
in Jan 2018. There is improvement of the current index in Feb 2018 with mild
deterioration in the future index. The current index improves in Apr 2018 while
the future index weakens. There is improvement in the current index in May 2018
with weakening of the future index. There is weakening in the current index in
Jun 2018 while the future index weakens. The current index improves in Jul 2018
while the future index weakens. There is weakening of the current index in Aug
2018 while the future index improves. The current index improves in Sep 2018
while the future index weakens. The current index weakens in Oct 2018 while the
future index weakens. The current index deteriorates in Nov 2018 while the
future index deteriorates. The current index deteriorates in Dec 2018 while the
future index improves. The current index improves in Jan 2019 while the future
index improves. The current index deteriorates in Feb 2019 while the
future index improves. The current index improves in Mar 2019 while the future
index deteriorates. The current index deteriorates in Apr 2019 while the future
index deteriorates. The current index improves in May 2019 while the future
index improves. The current index deteriorates in Jun 2019 while the future
index improves. The current index improves in Jul 2019 while the future index
improves. The current index deteriorates in Aug 2019 while the future index
deteriorates. The current index deteriorates in Sep 2019 while the future index
deteriorates. The current index deteriorates in Oct 2019 while the future index
improves. The current index improves in Nov 2019 while the future index
improves. The current index deteriorates in Dec 2019 while the future index
deteriorates. The current index improves in Jan 2020 while the future index
improves. The current index improves in Feb 2020 while the future index improves.
The current index contracts in Mar 2020 while the future index deteriorates.
The current index contracts in Apr 2020 while the future index deteriorates.
The current index improves in May 2020 while the future index improves. The
current index expands again in Jul 2020 while the future index expands. The
current index deteriorates in Aug 2020 while the future index improves.
Chart VA-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business
Outlook Survey, Current and Future Activity Indexes
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
The index of current new orders of the Business Outlook Survey
of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in Chart VA-2 illustrates the weakness
of the cyclical expansion. The index weakened in 2006 and 2007 and then fell
sharply into contraction during the global recession. There have been twelve
readings into contraction from Jan 2012 to May 2013 and generally weak readings
with some exceptions. The index of new orders moved into expansion in Jun-Oct
2013 with moderation in Nov-Dec 2013 and into Jan 2014. The index fell into
contraction in Feb 2014, recovering in Mar-Apr 2014 but weaker reading in May
2014. There is marked improvement in Jun-Jul 2014 with slowing in Aug-Oct 2014
followed by acceleration in Nov 2014. New orders deteriorated in Jan-Apr 2015,
improving in May-Jun 2015. New orders deteriorated in Jul-Aug 2015 and improved
in Sep 2015. New orders deteriorated in Oct-2015 to Dec 2015, contracting at
slower pace in Jan 2016. There is sharper contraction in Feb 2016 and an upward
jump in Mar 2016 followed by deterioration in Apr-Jun 2016. New orders improved
in Jul 2016, deteriorating in Aug 2016 and improving in Sep 2016. Improvement
continued in Oct-Nov 2016 with mild deterioration in Dec 2016 followed by
improvement in Jan-Feb 2017, softening in Mar-Jul 2017, recovering in Aug-Sep
2017. There is deterioration in Oct 2017 followed by improvement in Nov-Dec
2017. There is deterioration in Jan 2018 followed by improvement in Feb 2018
and improvement in Mar 2018. The index deteriorates in Apr 2018, improving in May 2018. The
index deteriorates in Jun 2018, improving in Jul 2018 and deteriorating in Aug
2018. The index improves in Sep 2018, deteriorating in Oct 2018. The index
weakens in Nov 2018, improving in Dec 2018. The index improves in Jan 2019,
deteriorating in Feb 2019. The index improves in Mar 2019, improving in Apr
2019. The index deteriorates in May-Jun 2019, improving in Jul 2019. The index
improves in Aug 2019, improving in Sep 2019. The index stabilizes in Oct 2019,
deteriorating in Nov 2019. The index improves in Dec 2019 and Jan 2020. The
index improves in Feb 2020. The index contracts in Mar-Apr 2020. There is
improvement in the index to softer negative level in May 2020. The index
improves to positive in Jun-Aug 2020.
Chart VA-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business
Outlook Survey, Current New Orders Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org
© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009,
2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020.
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