Dollar Devaluation and Yuan Revaluation, FOMC Changed Long-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy to Target “Inflation Moderately Above 2 Percent For Some Time” If Inflation Had Been Below 2 Percent “Persistently,” US GDP Contracted at SAAR of 31.7 Percent in IIQ2020 and Decreased 9.1 Percent Relative to a Year Earlier In the Global Recession, with Output in the US Reaching a High in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the Lockdown of Economic Activity in the COVID-19 Event, Mediocre Cyclical United States Economic Growth with GDP Five Trillion Dollars Below Trend in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth Underperforming Below Trend Worldwide, Cyclically Stagnating Real Private Fixed Investment, Swelling Undistributed Corporate Profits with Profit Contraction in the Global Recession, with Output in the US Reaching a High in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the Lockdown of Economic Activity in the COVID-19 Event, Increasing US New Home Sales and Home Prices, World Inflation Waves with Increasing Price Levels In Most Countries and Regions Worldwide, World Cyclical Slow Growth, and Government Intervention in Globalization: Part IV
Carlos M. Pelaez
© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009,
2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020.
IA Mediocre
Cyclical United States Economic Growth
IA1
Stagnating Real Private Fixed Investment
IA2
Swelling Undistributed Corporate Profits
IID United States Terms of International Trade
IIA United States
Housing Collapse
IIA1 Sales of New Houses
IIA2
United States House Prices
I World
Inflation Waves
IA Appendix: Transmission of
Unconventional Monetary Policy
IB1 Theory
IB2 Policy
IB3 Evidence
IB4 Unwinding Strategy
IC United
States Inflation
IC Long-term US Inflation
ID Current US Inflation
IE Theory and Reality
of Economic History, Cyclical Slow Growth Not Secular Stagnation and Monetary
Policy Based on Fear of Deflation
III World Financial Turbulence
IV Global Inflation
V World Economic
Slowdown
VA United States
VB Japan
VC China
VD Euro Area
VE Germany
VF France
VG Italy
VH United Kingdom
VI Valuation of Risk
Financial Assets
VII Economic
Indicators
VIII Interest Rates
IX Conclusion
References
Appendixes
Appendix I The Great Inflation
IIIB Appendix on Safe
Haven Currencies
IIIC Appendix on
Fiscal Compact
IIID Appendix on
European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort
IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the
Debt Crisis
II I United States Housing
Collapse. Data and other information continue to provide depressed
conditions in the US housing market in a longer perspective, with recent
improvement at the margin. Table IIB-1 shows sales of new houses in the US at
seasonally adjusted annual equivalent rate (SAAR). The US Census Bureau revised
all seasonally-adjusted new house sales from 2014 to 2019 with the report for
Apr 2019 on May 23, 2019 (https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf). The US
Census Bureau revised all seasonally adjusted new house sales from 2015 to 2020
with the report of Apr 2020 on May 26, 2020 (https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf). House
sales fell in 50 of 115 months from Jan 2011 to Jul 2020 with monthly declines
of 5 in 2011, 4 in 2012, 5 in 2013, 6 in 2014, 3 in 2015, 7 in 2016, 5 in 2017,
7 in 2018, 5 in 2019 and 3 in 2020. In Jan-Apr 2012, house sales increased at
the annual equivalent rate of 11.8 percent and at 22.3 percent in May-Sep 2012.
There was significant strength in Sep-Dec 2011 with annual equivalent rate of
48.4 percent. Sales of new houses fell at 7.0 percent in Oct 2012 with increase
of 9.5 percent in Nov 2012. Sales of new houses rebounded 11.8 percent in Jan
2013 with annual equivalent rate of 55.7 percent from Oct 2012 to Jan 2013
because of the increase at 11.8 percent in Jan 2013. New house sales decreased
at annual equivalent 3.0 percent in Feb-Mar 2013. New house sales weakened,
decreasing at 3.1 percent in annual equivalent from Apr to Dec 2013 with
significant volatility illustrated by decline of 20.2 percent in Jul 2013 and
increase of 10.2 percent in Oct 2013. New house sales fell 2.9 percent in Dec
2013. New house sales increased 2.3 percent in Jan 2014 and fell 5.2 percent in
Feb 2014, decreasing 3.6 percent in Mar 2014. New house sales decreased 0.5
percent in Apr 2014 and increased 11.9 percent in May 2014. New house sales
fell 7.3 percent in Jun 2014 and decreased 3.8 percent in Jul 2014. New house
sales increased at 8.0 percent in Jan-Aug 2014. New house sales jumped 13.4
percent in Aug 2014 and increased 3.1 percent in Sep 2014. New House sales
increased 1.3 percent in Oct 2014 and fell 7.1 percent in Nov 2014. House sales
fell at the annual equivalent rate of 11.4 percent in Sep-Nov 2014. New house
sales increased 12.4 percent in Dec 2014 and increased 3.6 percent in Jan 2015.
Sales of new houses increased 4.9 percent in Feb
2015 and fell 11.1 percent in Mar 2015.
House sales increased 4.6 percent in Apr 2015. The annual equivalent rate in
Dec 2014-Apr 2015 was 35.7 percent. New house sales changed 0.0 percent in May
2015 and fell 4.4 percent in Jun 2015, increasing 5.4 percent in Jul 2015. New
house sales fell at annual equivalent 3.1 percent in May-Jul 2015. New house
sales increased 2.4 percent in Aug 2015 and fell 12.0 percent in Sep 2015. New
house sales decreased at annual equivalent 46.5 percent in Aug-Sep 2015. New
house sales increased 5.7 percent in Oct 2015 and increased 4.6 percent in Nov
2015, increasing 8.3 percent in Dec 2015. New house sales increased at the
annual equivalent rate of 105.6 percent in Oct-Dec 2015. New house sales
decreased 6.8 percent in Jan 2016 at the annual equivalent rate of minus 57.0
percent. New house sales increased 1.2 percent in Feb 2016 and increased 2.1
percent in Mar 2016. New house sales jumped at 8.6 percent in Apr 2016. New
house sales increased at the annual equivalent rate of 58.5 percent in Feb-Apr
2016. New house sales decreased 1.9 percent in May 2016 and decreased 0.4
percent in Jun 2016. New house sales jumped 14.5 percent in Jul 2016. New house sales increased at the annual
equivalent rate of 56.7 percent in May-Jul 2016. New house sales fell 8.6
percent in Aug 2016 and decreased 2.9 percent in Sep 2016, increasing 1.8
percent in Oct 2016. New house sales fell at the annual equivalent rate of
minus 33.4 percent in Aug-Oct 2016. New house sales decreased at 1.0 percent in
Nov 2016 and fell at 1.8 percent in Dec 2016. New house sales fell at 15.6
percent annual equivalent in Nov-Dec 2016. New house sales increased at 4.3
percent in Jan 2017 and increased at 2.1 percent in Feb 2017. New house sales
increased at 45.8 percent in Jan-Feb 2017. New house sales increased at 5.7
percent in Mar 2017 and fell at 6.7 percent in Apr 2017. New house sales
decreased at annual equivalent 8.0 percent in Mar-Apr 2017. New house sales increased at 4.1 percent in
May 2017 and increased at 1.1 percent in Jun 2017. New house sales increased at
annual equivalent 35.9 percent in May-Jun 2017. New house sales decreased at
8.9 percent in Jul 2017 and decreased at 0.9 percent in Aug 2017, increasing at
13.9 percent in Sep 2017. New house sales increased at annual equivalent 11.8
percent in Jul-Sep 2017. New house sales decreased at 1.7 percent in Oct 2017.
New house sales increased at 13.6 percent in Nov 2017. New house sales
increased at annual equivalent 93.9 percent in Oct-Nov 2017. New house sales
decreased at 7.7 percent in Dec 2017 and decreased at 5.3 percent in Jan 2018. New house sales decreased at annual
equivalent 55.4 percent in Dec 2017-Jan 2018. New house sales increased at 2.4
percent in Feb 2018, increasing at 3.9 percent in Mar 2018. New house sales
increased at 45.0 percent in Feb-Mar 2018. New house sales decreased at 3.8
percent in Apr 2018 and increased at 3.1 percent in May 2018. New House sales decreased at annual
equivalent 4.8 percent in Apr-May 2018. New house sales decreased at 6.7
percent in Jun 2018 and increased at 0.7 percent in Jul 2018. New House sales
decreased at annual equivalent 31.2 percent in Jun-Jul 2018. New house sales
decreased at 3.1 percent in Aug 2018 and decreased at 0.3 percent in Sep 2018.
New house sales decreased at annual equivalent 18.7 percent in Aug-Sep 2018.
New house sales fell at 7.4 percent in Oct 2018 and increased at 11.2 percent
in Nov 2018. New house sales increased at annual equivalent 19.2 percent in
Oct-Nov 2018. New house sales decreased
at 8.1 percent in Dec 2018 and increased at 12.9 percent in Jan 2019. New House
sales increased at annual equivalent 24.8 percent in Dec 2018-Jan 2019. New
house sales increased at 4.4 percent in Feb 2019 and increased at 5.3 percent
in Mar 2019. New house sales increased at annual equivalent 76.5 percent in
Feb-Mar 2019. New house sales fell at 5.1 percent in Apr 2019 and fell at 9.6
percent in May 2019. New house sales decreased at annual equivalent 60.1
percent in Apr-May 2019. New house sales increased at 21.0 percent in Jun 2019
and decreased at 9.0 percent in Jul 2019. New house sales increased at annual
equivalent 78.2 percent in Jun-Jul 2019. New house sales increased at 6.8
percent in Aug 2019 and increased at 2.8 percent in Sep 2019. New house sales
decreased at 2.8 percent in Oct 2019. New house sales increased at annual equivalent
29.7 percent in Aug-Oct 2019. New house sales decreased at 1.4 percent in Nov
2019. New house sales decreased at annual equivalent 15.6 percent in Nov 2019.
New house sales increased at 5.0 percent in Dec 2019. New house sales increased
at 5.9 percent in Jan 2020. New house sales increased at annual equivalent 89.0
percent in Dec 2019-Jan 2020. New house sales decreased at 7.5 percent in Feb
2020. New house sales decreased at 14.5 percent in Mar 2020 in the global
recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. New house sales decreased
at 6.9 percent in Apr 2020. New house sales decreased at annual equivalent 70.6
percent in Feb-Apr 2020. New house sales increased at 20.5 percent in May 2020.
New house sales increased at 15.1 percent in Jun 2020. New house sales
increased at 13.9 percent in Jul 2020. New house sales increased at annual
equivalent 522.8 percent in May-Jul 2020. There are wide monthly oscillations.
Robbie Whelan and Conor Dougherty, writing on “Builders fuel home sale rise,”
on Feb 26, 2013, published in the Wall
Street Journal (http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324338604578327982067761860.html), analyze
how builders have provided financial assistance to home buyers, including those
short of cash and with weaker credit background, explaining the rise in new
home sales and the highest gap between prices of new and existing houses. The
30-year conventional mortgage rate increased from 3.40 on Apr 25, 2013 to 4.58
percent on Aug 22, 2013 (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data.htm), which
could also be a factor in recent weakness with improvement after the rate fell
to 4.26 in Nov 2013. The conventional mortgage rate rose to 4.48 percent on Dec
26, 2013 and fell to 4.32 percent on Jan 30, 2014. The conventional mortgage
rate increased to 4.37 percent on Feb 26, 2014 and 4.40 percent on Mar 27,
2014. The conventional mortgage rate fell to 4.14 percent on Apr 22, 2014,
stabilizing at 4.14 on Jun 26, 2014. The conventional mortgage rate stood at
3.93 percent on Aug 20, 2015 and at 3.91 percent on Sep 17, 2015. The
conventional mortgage rate was at 3.79 percent on Oct 22, 2015. The
conventional mortgage rate was 3.97 percent on Nov 20, 2015. The conventional
mortgage rate was 3.97 percent on Dec 18, 2015, and 3.92 percent on Jan 14,
2016. The conventional mortgage rate was 3.65 percent on Feb 19, 2016. The
commercial mortgage rate was 3.73 percent on Mar 17, 2016 and 3.59 percent on
Apr 21, 2016. The conventional mortgage rate was 3.58 on May 19, 2016. The
conventional mortgage rate was 3.54 percent on Jun 19, 2016 and 3.45 percent on
Jul 21, 2016. The conventional mortgage rate was 3.43 percent on Aug 18, 2016
and 3.48 percent on Sep 22, 2016. The conventional mortgage rate was 3.94 on
Nov 17, 2016 and 4.30 percent on Dec 22.
The conventional mortgage rate was 4.19 percent on Jan 26, 2017 and 4.15
percent on Feb 17, 2017. The conventional mortgage rate was 4.1 percent on Mar
16, 2017. The conventional mortgage rate was 3.97 percent on Apr 20, 2017. The
conventional mortgage rate was 4.05 percent on May 18, 2017. The conventional
mortgage rate was 3.90 percent on Jun 22, 2017. The conventional mortgage rate
was 3.96 percent on Jul 20, 2017. The conventional mortgage rate was 3.90
percent on Aug 18, 2017. The conventional mortgage rate was 3.83 percent on Sep
21, 2017. The conventional mortgage rate was 3.88 percent on Oct 20, 2017. The
conventional mortgage rate was 3.92 percent on Nov 22, 2017 and 3.94 on Dec 21,
2017. The conventional mortgage rate was 4.04 percent on Jan 18, 2018. The
conventional mortgage rate was 4.40 percent on Feb 22, 2018. The conventional
rate was 4.43 percent on Mar 1, 2018. The conventional mortgage rate was 4.45
percent on Mar 22, 2018. The conventional mortgage rate was 4.47 on Apr 19,
2018. The conventional mortgage rate was 4.87 percent in May 31, 2018. The
conventional mortgage rate was 4.57 percent on Jun 21, 2018. The conventional
mortgage rate was 4.52 percent on Jul 19, 2018. The conventional mortgage rate
was 4.53 percent on Aug 16, 2018. The conventional mortgage rate was 4.65
percent on Sep 20, 2018. The conventional mortgage rate was 4.85 percent on Oct
18, 2018. The conventional mortgage rate was 4.81 percent on Nov 21, 2018. The
conventional mortgage rate was 4.35 percent in Feb 2019. The conventional
mortgage rate was 4.41 percent on Mar 7, 2019. The conventional mortgage rate
was 4.06 percent on Mar 28, 2019. The conventional mortgage rate was 4.12
percent on Apr 5, 2019. The conventional mortgage rate was at 4.06 percent on
May 23, 2019. The conventional mortgage rate was 3.84 percent on Jun 20, 2019.
The conventional mortgage rate was at 3.81 percent on Jul 18, 2019. The
conventional mortgage rate was 3.60 on Aug 22, 2019. The conventional mortgage
rate was 3.66 percent on Nov 21, 2019. The conventional mortgage rate was 3.74
percent on
Dec 26, 2019. The conventional mortgage
rate was 3.60 on Jan 24, 2020. The conventional mortgage rate was 3.49 percent
on Feb 21, 2020. The conventional mortgage rate was 3.65 percent on Mar 19,
2020. The conventional mortgage rate was 3.31 percent on Apr 16, 2020. The
conventional mortgage rate was 3.24 percent on May 20, 2020. The conventional
mortgage rate was 3.13 percent on Jun 19, 2020. The conventional mortgage rate
was 3.01 percent on Jul 24, 2020. The conventional mortgage rate was 2.99
percent on Aug 21, 2020. The conventional mortgage rate measured in a survey by
Freddie Mac (http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/ http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/abtpmms.htm) is the
“interest rate a lender would charge to lend mortgage money to a qualified
borrower.
Table IIB-1, US, Sales of New Houses at Seasonally Adjusted (SA)
Annual Equivalent Rate, Thousands and %
|
SA Annual
Rate |
∆% |
|
|
Jul 2020 |
901 |
13.9 |
|
Jun |
791 |
15.1 |
|
May |
687 |
20.5 |
|
AE ∆% May-Jul |
|
522.8 |
|
Apr |
570 |
-6.9 |
|
Mar |
612 |
-14.5 |
|
Feb |
716 |
-7.5 |
|
AE ∆% Feb-Apr |
|
-70.6 |
|
Jan |
774 |
5.9 |
|
Dec 2019 |
731 |
5.0 |
|
AE ∆% Dec-Jan |
|
89.0 |
|
Nov |
696 |
-1.4 |
|
AE ∆% Nov |
|
-15.6 |
|
Oct |
706 |
-2.8 |
|
Sep |
726 |
2.8 |
|
Aug |
706 |
6.8 |
|
AE ∆% Aug-Oct |
|
29.7 |
|
Jul |
661 |
-9.0 |
|
Jun |
726 |
21.0 |
|
AE ∆% Jun-Jul |
|
78.2 |
|
May |
600 |
-9.6 |
|
Apr |
664 |
-5.1 |
|
AE ∆% Apr-May |
|
-60.1 |
|
Mar |
700 |
5.3 |
|
Feb |
665 |
4.4 |
|
AE ∆% Feb-Mar |
|
76.5 |
|
Jan |
637 |
12.9 |
|
Dec 2018 |
564 |
-8.1 |
|
AE ∆% Dec-Jan |
|
24.8 |
|
Nov |
614 |
11.2 |
|
Oct |
552 |
-7.4 |
|
AE ∆% Oct-Nov |
|
19.2 |
|
Sep |
596 |
-0.3 |
|
Aug |
598 |
-3.1 |
|
AE ∆% Aug-Sep |
|
-18.7 |
|
Jul |
617 |
0.7 |
|
Jun |
613 |
-6.7 |
|
AE ∆% Jun-Jul |
|
-31.2 |
|
May |
657 |
3.1 |
|
Apr |
637 |
-3.8 |
|
AE ∆% Apr-May |
|
-4.8 |
|
Mar |
662 |
3.9 |
|
Feb |
637 |
2.4 |
|
AE ∆% Feb-Mar |
|
45.0 |
|
Jan |
622 |
-5.3 |
|
Dec 2017 |
657 |
-7.7 |
|
AE ∆% Dec-Jan |
|
-55.4 |
|
Nov |
712 |
13.6 |
|
Oct |
627 |
-1.7 |
|
AE ∆% Oct-Nov |
|
93.9 |
|
Sep |
638 |
13.9 |
|
Aug |
560 |
-0.9 |
|
Jul |
565 |
-8.9 |
|
AE ∆% Jul-Sep |
|
11.8 |
|
Jun |
620 |
1.1 |
|
May |
613 |
4.1 |
|
AE ∆% May
-Jun |
|
35.9 |
|
Apr |
589 |
-6.7 |
|
Mar |
631 |
5.7 |
|
AE ∆% Mar-Apr |
|
-8.0 |
|
Feb |
597 |
2.1 |
|
Jan |
585 |
4.3 |
|
AE ∆% Jan-Feb |
|
45.8 |
|
Dec 2016 |
561 |
-1.8 |
|
Nov |
571 |
-1.0 |
|
AE ∆% Nov-Dec |
|
-15.6 |
|
Oct |
577 |
1.8 |
|
Sep |
567 |
-2.9 |
|
Aug |
584 |
-8.6 |
|
AE ∆% Aug-Oct |
|
-33.4 |
|
Jul |
639 |
14.5 |
|
Jun |
558 |
-0.4 |
|
May |
560 |
-1.9 |
|
AE ∆% May-Jul |
|
56.7 |
|
Apr |
571 |
8.6 |
|
Mar |
526 |
2.1 |
|
Feb |
515 |
1.2 |
|
AE ∆% Feb-Apr |
58.5 |
|
|
Jan |
509 |
-6.8 |
|
AE ∆% Jan |
-57.0 |
|
|
Dec 2015 |
546 |
8.3 |
|
Nov |
504 |
4.6 |
|
Oct |
482 |
5.7 |
|
AE ∆% Oct-Dec |
105.6 |
|
|
Sep |
456 |
-12.0 |
|
Aug |
518 |
2.4 |
|
AE ∆% Aug-Sep |
-46.5 |
|
|
Jul |
506 |
5.4 |
|
Jun |
480 |
-4.4 |
|
May |
502 |
0.0 |
|
AE ∆% May-Jul |
-3.1 |
|
|
Apr |
502 |
4.6 |
|
Mar |
480 |
-11.1 |
|
Feb |
540 |
4.9 |
|
Jan |
515 |
3.6 |
|
Dec 2014 |
497 |
12.4 |
|
AE ∆% Dec-Apr |
35.7 |
|
|
Nov |
442 |
-7.1 |
|
Oct |
476 |
1.3 |
|
Sep |
470 |
3.1 |
|
AE ∆% Sep-Nov |
-11.4 |
|
|
Aug |
456 |
13.4 |
|
Jul |
402 |
-3.8 |
|
Jun |
418 |
-7.3 |
|
May |
451 |
11.9 |
|
Apr |
403 |
-0.5 |
|
Mar |
405 |
-3.6 |
|
Feb |
420 |
-5.2 |
|
Jan |
443 |
2.3 |
|
AE ∆% Jan-Aug |
8.0 |
|
|
Dec 2013 |
433 |
-2.9 |
|
Nov |
446 |
0.5 |
|
Oct |
444 |
10.2 |
|
Sep |
403 |
5.8 |
|
Aug |
381 |
1.6 |
|
Jul |
375 |
-20.2 |
|
Jun |
470 |
9.8 |
|
May |
428 |
-2.9 |
|
Apr |
441 |
-0.7 |
|
AE ∆% Apr-Dec |
-3.1 |
|
|
Mar |
444 |
-0.7 |
|
Feb |
447 |
0.2 |
|
AE ∆% Feb-Mar |
-3.0 |
|
|
Jan |
446 |
11.8 |
|
Dec 2012 |
399 |
1.8 |
|
Nov |
392 |
9.5 |
|
Oct |
358 |
-7.0 |
|
AE ∆% Oct-Jan |
55.7 |
|
|
Sep |
385 |
2.7 |
|
Aug |
375 |
1.6 |
|
Jul |
369 |
2.5 |
|
Jun |
360 |
-2.7 |
|
May |
370 |
4.5 |
|
AE ∆% May-Sep |
22.3 |
|
|
Apr |
354 |
0.0 |
|
Mar |
354 |
-3.3 |
|
Feb |
366 |
9.3 |
|
Jan |
335 |
-1.8 |
|
AE ∆% Jan-Apr |
11.8 |
|
|
Dec 2011 |
341 |
4.0 |
|
Nov |
328 |
3.8 |
|
Oct |
316 |
3.9 |
|
Sep |
304 |
1.7 |
|
AE ∆% Sep-Dec |
48.4 |
|
|
Aug |
299 |
1.0 |
|
Jul |
296 |
-1.7 |
|
Jun |
301 |
-1.3 |
|
May |
305 |
-1.6 |
|
AE ∆% May-Aug |
-10.3 |
|
|
Apr |
310 |
3.3 |
|
Mar |
300 |
11.1 |
|
Feb |
270 |
-12.1 |
|
Jan |
307 |
-5.8 |
|
AE ∆% Jan-Apr |
-14.2 |
|
|
Dec 2010 |
326 |
13.6 |
AE: Annual
Equivalent
Source: US
Census Bureau
https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/index.html
There is additional information of the report of new house
sales in Table IIB-2. The stock of unsold houses fell from rates of 6 to 8
percent of sales in 2011 to 4 to 5 percent in 2013 and 4.0 percent in Jul 2020.
Robbie Whelan and Conor Dougherty, writing on “Builders fuel home sale rise,”
on Feb 26, 2013, published in the Wall
Street Journal (http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324338604578327982067761860.html), find that
inventories of houses have declined as investors acquire distressed houses of
higher quality. Median and average house prices oscillate. In Jul 2020, median
prices of new houses sold not seasonally adjusted (NSA) decreased 1.9 percent
after increasing 7.7 percent in
Jun 2020.
Average prices increased 2.5 percent in Jul 2020 and increased 4.5 percent in
Jun 2020. Between Dec 2010 and Jul 2020, median prices increased 37.1 percent,
with increases of 6.0 percent in Feb 2016, 4.9 percent in Nov 2015, 2.2 percent
in Sep 2015, 13.6 percent in Oct 2014, 4.0 percent in Aug 2014, 4.0 percent in
May 2014 and 5.2 percent in Mar 2014.
Average prices increased 34.1 percent between Dec 2010 and Jul 2020,
with increases of 5.1 percent in Mar 2016, 4.0 percent in Sep 2015, 4.4 percent
in Jul 2015 and 18.3 percent in Oct 2014. Between Dec 2010 and Dec 2012, median
prices increased 7.1 percent and average prices increased 2.6 percent. Price
increases concentrated in 2012 with increase of median prices of 18.2 percent
from Dec 2011 to Dec 2012 and of average prices of 13.8 percent. Median prices
increased 16.7 percent from Dec 2012 to Dec 2014, with increase of 13.6 percent
in Oct 2014, while average prices increased 24.7 percent, with increase of 18.3
percent in Oct 2014. Median prices decreased 1.5 percent from Dec 2014 to Dec
2015 while average prices fell 5.5 percent. Median prices increased 10.1
percent from Dec 2015 to Dec 2016 while average prices increased 8.5 percent.
Median prices increased 5.0 percent from Dec 2016 to Dec 2017 while average
prices increased 5.3 percent. Median prices decreased 4.0 percent from Dec 2017
to Dec 2018 while average prices decreased 5.2 percent. Median prices decreased
0.1 percent from Dec 2018 to Dec 2019 while average prices decreased 1.1
percent. Median prices increased 6.0 percent from Jul 2019 to Jul 2020 while
average prices increased 8.1 percent. Robbie Whelan, writing on “New homes hit
record as builders cap supply,” on May 24, 2013, published in the Wall Street
Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323475304578500973445311276.html?mod=WSJ_economy_LeftTopHighlights), finds
that homebuilders are continuing to restrict the number of new homes for sale.
Restriction of available new homes for sale increases prices paid by buyers.
Table IIB-2,
US, New House Stocks and Median and Average New Homes Sales Price
|
|
Unsold* |
Median |
Month |
Average New
House Sales Price USD |
Month |
|
Jul 2020 |
4.0 |
330,600 |
-1.9 |
391,300 |
2.5 |
|
Jun |
4.6 |
337,000 |
7.7 |
381,900 |
4.5 |
|
May |
5.4 |
312,900 |
0.9 |
365,400 |
1.4 |
|
Apr |
6.8 |
310,100 |
-5.5 |
360,300 |
-4.0 |
|
Mar |
6.5 |
328,200 |
-1.1 |
375,400 |
-2.8 |
|
Feb |
5.5 |
331,800 |
0.9 |
386,200 |
0.6 |
|
Jan |
5.0 |
328,900 |
-0.2 |
384,000 |
1.7 |
|
Dec 2019 |
5.3 |
329,500 |
0.5 |
377,700 |
-1.7 |
|
Nov |
5.6 |
328,000 |
1.7 |
384,400 |
1.1 |
|
Oct |
5.5 |
322,400 |
2.1 |
380,300 |
2.2 |
|
Sep |
5.3 |
315,700 |
-3.5 |
372,100 |
-5.2 |
|
Aug |
5.5 |
327,000 |
6.1 |
392,700 |
5.1 |
|
Jul |
6.0 |
308,300 |
-1.1 |
373,500 |
3.2 |
|
Jun |
5.5 |
311,800 |
-0.3 |
361,900 |
-4.5 |
|
May |
6.7 |
312,700 |
-7.8 |
379,100 |
-1.6 |
|
Apr |
6.1 |
339,000 |
9.1 |
385,400 |
3.4 |
|
Mar |
5.8 |
310,600 |
-3.2 |
372,700 |
-2.8 |
|
Feb |
6.1 |
320,800 |
5.0 |
383,600 |
6.2 |
|
Jan |
6.5 |
305,400 |
-7.4 |
361,100 |
-5.4 |
|
Dec 2018 |
7.4 |
329,700 |
6.9 |
381,800 |
4.0 |
|
Nov |
6.5 |
308,500 |
-6.0 |
367,100 |
-7.0 |
|
Oct |
7.2 |
328,300 |
0.0 |
394,900 |
2.2 |
|
Sep |
6.5 |
328,300 |
2.1 |
386,400 |
1.4 |
|
Aug |
6.4 |
321,400 |
-1.9 |
380,900 |
-2.9 |
|
Jul |
6.1 |
327,500 |
5.5 |
392,300 |
6.0 |
|
Jun |
6.1 |
310,500 |
-2.0 |
370,100 |
-0.7 |
|
May |
5.5 |
316,700 |
0.7 |
372,600 |
-3.2 |
|
Apr |
5.7 |
314,400 |
-6.3 |
385,100 |
4.3 |
|
Mar |
5.4 |
335,400 |
2.5 |
369,200 |
-1.2 |
|
Feb |
5.6 |
327,200 |
-0.7 |
373,600 |
-1.1 |
|
Jan |
5.6 |
329,600 |
-4.0 |
377,800 |
-6.2 |
|
Dec 2017 |
5.4 |
343,300 |
0.0 |
402,900 |
3.7 |
|
Nov |
4.9 |
343,400 |
7.5 |
388,500 |
-1.4 |
|
Oct |
5.5 |
319,500 |
-3.6 |
394,000 |
3.9 |
|
Sep |
5.3 |
331,500 |
5.5 |
379,300 |
2.7 |
|
Aug |
6.0 |
314,200 |
-2.7 |
369,200 |
-0.9 |
|
Jul |
5.9 |
322,900 |
2.4 |
372,400 |
0.5 |
|
Jun |
5.3 |
315,200 |
-2.6 |
370,600 |
-2.1 |
|
May |
5.3 |
323,600 |
4.0 |
378,400 |
3.4 |
|
Apr |
5.5 |
311,100 |
-3.3 |
365,800 |
-4.8 |
|
Mar |
5.0 |
321,700 |
8.0 |
384,400 |
3.8 |
|
Feb |
5.2 |
298,000 |
-5.5 |
370,500 |
3.6 |
|
Jan |
5.3 |
315,200 |
-3.6 |
357,700 |
-6.5 |
|
Dec 2016 |
5.4 |
327,000 |
3.8 |
382,500 |
5.3 |
|
Nov |
5.2 |
315,000 |
4.0 |
363,400 |
3.2 |
|
Oct |
5.1 |
302,800 |
-3.8 |
352,200 |
-3.8 |
|
Sep |
5.2 |
314,800 |
5.3 |
366,100 |
3.1 |
|
Aug |
4.9 |
298,900 |
0.5 |
355,100 |
0.6 |
|
Jul |
4.5 |
297,400 |
-4.4 |
353,000 |
-1.3 |
|
Jun |
5.2 |
311,200 |
5.4 |
357,800 |
2.3 |
|
May |
5.2 |
295,200 |
-7.3 |
349,700 |
-5.3 |
|
Apr |
5.1 |
318,300 |
5.0 |
369,300 |
2.9 |
|
Mar |
5.5 |
303,200 |
-0.9 |
359,000 |
5.1 |
|
Feb |
5.6 |
305,800 |
6.0 |
341,700 |
-5.4 |
|
Jan |
5.6 |
288,400 |
-2.9 |
361,200 |
2.5 |
|
Dec 2015 |
5.1 |
297,100 |
-5.0 |
352,500 |
-5.5 |
|
Nov |
5.5 |
312,600 |
4.9 |
373,200 |
1.2 |
|
Oct |
5.6 |
298,000 |
-0.5 |
368,900 |
3.3 |
|
Sep |
5.9 |
299,500 |
2.2 |
357,200 |
4.0 |
|
Aug |
5.0 |
293,000 |
0.2 |
343,300 |
0.6 |
|
Jul |
5.2 |
292,300 |
2.5 |
341,200 |
4.4 |
|
Jun |
5.4 |
285,100 |
-0.8 |
326,900 |
-2.8 |
|
May |
5.0 |
287,500 |
-2.4 |
336,200 |
-1.2 |
|
Apr |
4.9 |
294,500 |
2.8 |
340,400 |
-2.5 |
|
Mar |
5.1 |
286,600 |
0.0 |
349,300 |
0.9 |
|
Feb |
4.5 |
286,600 |
-1.8 |
346,300 |
-0.6 |
|
Jan |
4.8 |
292,000 |
-3.2 |
348,300 |
-6.7 |
|
Dec 2014 |
5.1 |
301,500 |
1.1 |
373,200 |
7.0 |
|
Nov |
5.7 |
298,300 |
0.4 |
348,900 |
-7.6 |
|
Oct |
5.3 |
297,000 |
13.6 |
377,500 |
18.3 |
|
Sep |
5.4 |
261,500 |
-10.4 |
319,100 |
-10.4 |
|
Aug |
5.4 |
291,700 |
4.0 |
356,200 |
3.2 |
|
Jul |
6.2 |
280,400 |
-2.3 |
345,200 |
2.1 |
|
Jun |
5.7 |
287,000 |
0.5 |
338,100 |
4.5 |
|
May |
5.2 |
285,600 |
4.0 |
323,500 |
-0.5 |
|
Apr |
5.7 |
274,500 |
-2.8 |
325,100 |
-1.9 |
|
Mar |
5.6 |
282,300 |
5.2 |
331,500 |
1.7 |
|
Feb |
5.3 |
268,400 |
-0.5 |
325,900 |
-3.4 |
|
Jan |
5.1 |
269,800 |
-2.1 |
337,300 |
5.0 |
|
Dec 2013 |
5.2 |
275,500 |
-0.6 |
321,200 |
-4.3 |
|
Nov |
5.0 |
277,100 |
4.8 |
335,600 |
0.0 |
|
Oct |
4.9 |
264,300 |
-2.0 |
335,700 |
4.4 |
|
Sep |
5.4 |
269,800 |
5.7 |
321,400 |
3.4 |
|
Aug |
5.5 |
255,300 |
-2.6 |
310,800 |
-5.8 |
|
Jul |
5.5 |
262,200 |
0.9 |
329,900 |
7.8 |
|
Jun |
4.1 |
259,800 |
-1.5 |
306,100 |
-2.5 |
|
May |
4.6 |
263,700 |
-5.6 |
314,000 |
-6.8 |
|
Apr |
4.4 |
279,300 |
8.5 |
337,000 |
12.3 |
|
Mar |
4.2 |
257,500 |
-2.9 |
300,200 |
-3.9 |
|
Feb |
4.1 |
265,100 |
5.4 |
312,500 |
1.8 |
|
Jan |
4.0 |
251,500 |
-2.6 |
306,900 |
2.6 |
|
Dec 2012 |
4.5 |
258,300 |
5.4 |
299,200 |
2.9 |
|
Nov |
4.6 |
245,000 |
-0.9 |
290,700 |
1.9 |
|
Oct |
4.9 |
247,200 |
-2.9 |
285,400 |
-4.1 |
|
Sep |
4.5 |
254,600 |
0.6 |
297,700 |
-2.6 |
|
Aug |
4.6 |
253,200 |
6.7 |
305,500 |
8.2 |
|
Jul |
4.6 |
237,400 |
2.1 |
282,300 |
3.9 |
|
Jun |
4.8 |
232,600 |
-2.8 |
271,800 |
-3.2 |
|
May |
4.7 |
239,200 |
1.2 |
280,900 |
-2.4 |
|
Apr |
4.9 |
236,400 |
-1.4 |
287,900 |
1.5 |
|
Mar |
4.9 |
239,800 |
0.0 |
283,600 |
3.5 |
|
Feb |
4.8 |
239,900 |
8.2 |
274,000 |
3.1 |
|
Jan |
5.3 |
221,700 |
1.4 |
265,700 |
1.1 |
|
Dec 2011 |
5.3 |
218,600 |
2.0 |
262,900 |
5.2 |
|
Nov |
5.7 |
214,300 |
-4.7 |
250,000 |
-3.2 |
|
Oct |
6.0 |
224,800 |
3.6 |
258,300 |
1.1 |
|
Sep |
6.3 |
217,000 |
-1.2 |
255,400 |
-1.5 |
|
Aug |
6.5 |
219,600 |
-4.5 |
259,300 |
-4.1 |
|
Jul |
6.7 |
229,900 |
-4.3 |
270,300 |
-1.0 |
|
Jun |
6.6 |
240,200 |
8.2 |
273,100 |
4.0 |
|
May |
6.6 |
222,000 |
-1.2 |
262,700 |
-2.3 |
|
Apr |
6.7 |
224,700 |
1.9 |
268,900 |
3.1 |
|
Mar |
7.2 |
220,500 |
0.2 |
260,800 |
-0.8 |
|
Feb |
8.1 |
220,100 |
-8.3 |
262,800 |
-4.7 |
|
Jan |
7.3 |
240,100 |
-0.5 |
275,700 |
-5.5 |
|
Dec 2010 |
7.0 |
241,200 |
9.8 |
291,700 |
3.5 |
*Percent of new
houses for sale relative to houses sold
Source: US
Census Bureau
https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/index.html
The
depressed level of residential construction and new house sales in the US is
evident in Table IIB-3 providing new house sales not seasonally adjusted in Jan-Jul
of various years. New house sales increased 8.4 percent from Jan-Jul 2019 to Jan-Jul
2020. New house sales increased 12.8 percent from Jan-Jul 2018 to Jan-Jul 2020.
New house sales increased 20.3 percent from Jan-Jul 2017 to Jan-Jul 2020. Sales
of new houses are higher in Jan-Jul 2020 relative to Jan-Jul 2016 with increase
of 30.1 percent. Sales of new houses are higher in Jan-Jul 2020 relative to Jan-Jul
2015 with increase of 44.2 percent. Sales of new houses in Jan-Jul 2020 are
substantially lower than in many years between 1996 and 2020 except for the
years from 2008 to 2019. There are several other increases of 71.8 percent
relative to 2014, 67.9 percent relative to Jan-Jul 2013, 101.8 percent relative
to Jan-Jul 2012, 144.6 percent relative to Jan-Jul 2011, 116.3 percent relative
to Jan-Jul 2010, and 100.0 percent relative to Jan-Jul 2009. New house sales in
Jan-Jul 2020 are 37.6 percent higher than in Jan-Jul 2008. Sales of new houses
in Jan-Jul 2020 are lower by 13.0 percent relative to Jan-Jul 2007, 32.6
percent relative to 2006, 43.5 percent relative to 2005 and 39.1 percent
relative to 2004. The housing boom peaked in 2005 and 2006 when increases in
fed funds rates to 5.25 percent in Jun 2006 from 1.0 percent in Jun 2004
affected subprime mortgages that were programmed for refinancing in two or
three years on the expectation that price increases forever would raise home
equity. Higher home equity would permit refinancing under feasible mortgages
incorporating full payment of principal and interest (Gorton 2009EFM; see other
references in http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2011/07/causes-of-2007-creditdollar-crisis.html). Sales of
new houses in Jan-Jun 2020 relative to the same period in 2003 fell 31.2
percent and 22.4 percent relative to the same period in 2002. Similar
percentage declines are also for 2020 relative to years from 2000 to 2004.
Sales of new houses in Jan-Jul 2020 decreased 17.0 per cent relative to the
same period in 1998. The population of the US was 179.3 million in 1960 and
281.4 million in 2000 (Hobbs and Stoops 2002, 16). Detailed historical census
reports are available from the US Census Bureau at (http://www.census.gov/population/www/censusdata/hiscendata.html). The
estimate of the US population is 418.8 million in 2015. The US population
increased by 133.6 percent from 1960 to 2015.
The final row of Table IIB-3 reveals catastrophic data: sales of new
houses in Jan-Jul 2020 of 450 thousand units are lower by 11.1 percent relative
to 506 thousand units of houses sold in Jan-Jul 1977, which is fifteenth year
when data become available in 1963. The civilian noninstitutional population
increased from 122.416 million in 1963 to 259.175 million in 2019, or 111.7
percent (https://www.bls.gov/data/). The
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) defines the civilian noninstitutional
population (http://www.bls.gov/lau/rdscnp16.htm#cnp): “The civilian noninstitutional population consists
of persons 16 years of age and older residing in the 50 States and the District
of Columbia who are not inmates of institutions (for example, penal and mental
facilities and homes for the aged) and who are not on active duty in the Armed
Forces.” Note: there are two equal total new houses sold in
2015 of 84 (39 in Jan and 45 in Feb) and 84 in 2016 (39 in Jan and 45 in Feb).
There are two other equal total new houses sold of 68 in 2013 (32 in Jan and 36
in Feb) and 68 in 2014 (33 in Jan and 35 in 2014).
Table IIB-3,
US, Sales of New Houses Not Seasonally Adjusted, Thousands and %
|
Jan-Jul 2020 |
450 |
|
Jan-Jul 2019 |
415 |
|
∆% Jan-Jul 2020/Jan-Jul 2019 |
8.4 |
|
Jan-Jul 2018 |
399 |
|
∆% Jan-Jul 2020/Jan-Jul 2018 |
12.8 |
|
Jan-Jul 2017 |
374 |
|
Jan-Jul
2020/Jan-Jul 2017 |
20.3 |
|
Jan-Jul 2016 |
346 |
|
∆% Jan-Jul
2020/Jan-Jul 2016 |
30.1 |
|
Jan-Jul 2015 |
312 |
|
∆% Jan-Jul
2020/Jan-Jul 2015 |
44.2 |
|
Jan-Jul 2014 |
262 |
|
∆% Jan-Jul
2020/Jan-Jul 2014 |
71.8 |
|
Jan-Jul 2013 |
268 |
|
∆% Jan-Jul
2020/Jan-Jul 2013 |
67.9 |
|
Jan-Jul 2012 |
223 |
|
∆% Jan-Jul 2020/Jan-Jul
2012 |
101.8 |
|
Jan-Jul 2011 |
184 |
|
∆% Jan-Jul
2020/ |
144.6 |
|
Jan-Jul 2010 |
208 |
|
∆% Jan-Jul
2020/ |
116.3 |
|
Jan-Jul 2009 |
225 |
|
∆% Jan-Jul
2020/ |
100.0 |
|
Jan-Jul 2008 |
327 |
|
∆% Jan-Jul
2020/ |
37.6 |
|
Jan-Jul 2007 |
517 |
|
∆% Jan-Jul
2020/Jan-Jul 2007 |
-13.0 |
|
Jan-Jul 2006 |
668 |
|
∆% Jan-Jul
2020/Jan-Jul 2006 |
-32.6 |
|
Jan-Jul 2005 |
796 |
|
∆% Jan-Jul
2020/Jan-Jul 2005 |
-43.5 |
|
Jan-Jul 2004 |
739 |
|
∆% Jan-Jul
2020/ |
-39.1 |
|
Jan-Jul 2003 |
654 |
|
∆% Jan-Jul
2020/ |
-31.2 |
|
Jan-Jul 2002 |
580 |
|
∆% Jan-Jul
2020/ |
-22.4 |
|
Jan-Jul 2001 |
570 |
|
∆% Jan-Jul
2020/Jan-Jul 2001 |
-21.1 |
|
Jan-Jul 2000 |
535 |
|
∆% Jan-Jul
2020/Jan-Jul 2000 |
-15.9 |
|
Jan-Jul 1998 |
542 |
|
∆% Jan-Jul
2020/Jan-Jul 1998 |
-17.0 |
|
Jan-Jul 1977 |
506 |
|
∆% Jan-Jul
2020/Jan-Jul 1977 |
-11.1 |
*Computed using
unrounded data
Source: US
Census Bureau
https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/index.html
Chart IIB-1 of the US Bureau of the Census
shows the sharp decline of sales of new houses in the US. Sales rose
temporarily until about mid 2010 but then declined to a lower plateau followed
by increase, stability and new oscillating increase. There is decrease in the
final segment followed by marginal increase. There is renewed decline and
stabilization with recovery in May-Jul 2020.
Chart IIB-1, US, New One-Family Houses Sold in the US, SAAR
(Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate)
Source: US Census Bureau
https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/img/c25_curr.gif
Between 1991
and 2001, sales of new houses rose 78.4 percent at the average yearly rate of
6.0 percent, as shown in Table IB-5. Between 1995 and 2005 sales of new houses
increased 92.4 percent at the yearly rate of 6.8 percent. There are similar
rates in all years from 2000 to 2005. The boom in housing construction and
sales began in the 1980s and 1990s. The collapse of real estate culminated
several decades of housing subsidies and policies to lower mortgage rates and
borrowing terms (Pelaez and Pelaez, Financial Regulation after the Global
Recession (2009b), 42-8). Sales of new houses sold in 2019 fell 9.8 percent
relative to the same period in 1996 and fell 46.8 percent relative to 2005.
|
|
∆% |
Average Yearly % Rate |
|
1963-2019 |
22.0 |
0.4 |
|
1991-2001 |
78.4 |
6.0 |
|
1995-2005 |
92.4 |
6.8 |
|
2000-2005 |
46.3 |
7.9 |
|
1996-2019 |
-9.8 |
NA |
|
2000-2019 |
-22.1 |
NA |
|
2005-2019 |
-46.8 |
NA |
NA: Not Applicable
Source: US Census Bureau
https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/index.html
Chart IIB-2 of the US Bureau of
the Census provides the entire monthly sample of new houses sold in the US
between Jan 1963 and Jul 2020 without seasonal adjustment. The series is almost
stationary until the 1990s. There is sharp upward trend from the early 1990s to
2005-2006 after which new single-family houses sold collapse to levels below
those in the beginning of the series with recent increase.
Chart IIB-2, US, New Single-family Houses Sold, NSA,
1963-2020
Source: US Census Bureau
https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/index.htm
Chart IIB-2A
shows NSA sales of new single-family homes in the United States from 2019 to
2020. There is sharp decrease in Mar-Apr 2020 in the global recession, with output in the
US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event followed by vigorous
recovery in May-Jul 2020.
Chart IIB-2A, US, New Single-family Houses Sold, NSA,
2019-2020
Source: US Census Bureau
https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/index.html
Chart IIB-3 of the US Census Bureau provides the entire
series of new single-family sales median prices from Jan 1963 to Jul 2020.
There is long-term sharp upward trend with few declines until the current
collapse. Median prices increased sharply during the Great Inflation of the
1960s and 1970s and paused during the savings and loans crisis of the late
1980s and the recession of 1991. Housing subsidies throughout the 1990s caused
sharp upward trend of median new house prices that accelerated after the fed
funds rate of 1 percent from 2003 to 2004. There was sharp reduction of prices after
2006 with recovery recently above earlier prices.
Chart IIB-3, US, Median Sales Price of New Single-family
Houses Sold, US Dollars, NSA, 1963-2020
Source: US Census Bureau
https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/index.html
Chart IIB-3A
of the US Census Bureau provides the entire series of new single-family sales
median prices from Jan 2019 to Jul 2020. There is sharp decline of prices in
Mar-Apr 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in
Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event followed by vigorous
recovery in May-Jun 2020 with decline in Jul 2020.
Chart IIB-3A, US, Median Sales Price of New Single-family
Houses Sold, US Dollars, NSA, 2019-2020
Source: US Census Bureau
https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/index.html
Chart IIB-4 of the US Census
Bureau provides average prices of new houses sold from the mid-1970s to Jul
2020. There is similar behavior as with median prices of new houses sold in
Chart IIB-3. The only stress occurred in price pauses during the savings and
loans crisis of the late 1980s and the collapse after 2006 with recent
recovery, interrupted in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a
high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.
Chart IIB-4, US, Average Sales Price of New Single-family
Houses Sold, US Dollars, NSA, 1975-2020
Source: US Census Bureau
https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/index.html
Chart IIB-4 of the US
Census Bureau provides average prices of new houses sold from Jan 2019 to Jun
2020. Prices declined in the
global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the
lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event
Chart IIB-4A, US, Average Sales Price of New Single-family
Houses Sold, US Dollars, NSA, 2019-2020
Source: US Census Bureau
https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/index.html
© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009,
2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020.
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