© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017
I United States Industrial Production
II United States Current Account and International Investment Position
IIA United States International Trade
III World Financial Turbulence
IIIA Financial Risks
IIIE Appendix Euro Zone Survival Risk
IIIF Appendix on Sovereign Bond Valuation
IV Global Inflation
V World Economic Slowdown
VA United States
VB Japan
VC China
VD Euro Area
VE Germany
VF France
VG Italy
VH United Kingdom
VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets
VII Economic Indicators
VIII Interest Rates
IX Conclusion
References
Appendixes
Appendix I The Great Inflation
IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies
IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact
IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort
IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis
IIIGA Monetary Policy with Deficit Financing of Economic Growth
IIIGB Adjustment during the Debt Crisis of the 1980s
V World Economic Slowdown. Table V-1 is constructed with the database of the IMF (http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29) to show GDP in dollars in 2015 and the growth rate of real GDP of the world and selected regional countries from 2015 to 2018. The data illustrate the concept often repeated of “two-speed recovery” of the world economy from the recession of 2007 to 2009. The IMF has changed its forecast of the world economy to 3.1 percent in 2016 but accelerating to 3.5 percent in 2017 and 3.6 percent in 2018. Slow-speed recovery occurs in the “major advanced economies” of the G7 that account for $34,446 billion of world output of $74,197 billion, or 46.4 percent, but are projected to grow at much lower rates than world output, 1.8 percent on average from 2015 to 2019, in contrast with 3.4 percent for the world as a whole. While the world would grow 14.3 percent in the four years from 2015 to 2018, the G7 as a whole would grow 7.5 percent. The difference in dollars of 2015 is high: growing by 14.3 percent would add around $10.6 trillion of output to the world economy, or roughly, over two times the output of the economy of Japan of $4,382 billion but growing by 7.5 percent would add $5.6 trillion of output to the world, or about the output of Japan in 2015. The “two speed” concept is in reference to the growth of the 150 countries labeled as emerging and developing economies (EMDE) with joint output in 2015 of $29,333 billion, or 39.5 percent of world output. The EMDEs would grow cumulatively 18.8 percent or at the average yearly rate of 4.4 percent, contributing $5.5 trillion from 2015 to 2019 or the equivalent of somewhat more than one half the GDP of $11,226 billion of China in 2015. The final four countries in Table I-1 often referred as BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China), are large, rapidly growing emerging economies. Their combined output in 2015 adds to $16,479 billion, or 22.2 percent of world output, which is equivalent to 47.8 percent of the combined output of the major advanced economies of the G7.
Table I-1, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Real GDP Growth
GDP USD Billions 2015 | Real GDP ∆% | Real GDP ∆% | Real GDP ∆% | Real GDP ∆% | |
World | 74,197 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.6 |
G7 | 34,446 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
Canada | 1,553 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
France | 2,420 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
DE | 3,365 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
Italy | 1,826 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
Japan | 4,382 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
UK | 2,863 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.5 |
US | 18,037 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
Euro Area | 11,606 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
DE | 3,365 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
France | 2,420 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
Italy | 1,826 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
POT | 199 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
Ireland | 283 | 26.3 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 3.2 |
Greece | 195 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 2.7 |
Spain | 1,194 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 2.1 |
EMDE | 29,333 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 4.8 |
Brazil | 1,799 | -3.8 | -3.6 | 0.2 | 1.7 |
Russia | 1,366 | -2.8 | -0.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
India | 2,088 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 7.7 |
China | 11,226 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.2 |
Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries); POT: Portugal
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook databank
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2017/01/weodata/index.aspx
Continuing high rates of unemployment in advanced economies constitute another characteristic of the database of the WEO (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2017/01/weodata/index.aspx). Table V-2 is constructed with the WEO database to provide rates of unemployment from 2014 to 2018 for major countries and regions. In fact, unemployment rates for 2014 in Table IV-2 are high for all countries: unusually high for countries with high rates most of the time and unusually high for countries with low rates most of the time. The rates of unemployment are particularly high in 2014 for the countries with sovereign debt difficulties in Europe: 13.9 percent for Portugal (POT), 11.3 percent for Ireland, 26.5 percent for Greece, 24.4 percent for Spain and 12.6 percent for Italy, which is lower but still high. The G7 rate of unemployment is 6.4 percent. Unemployment rates are not likely to decrease substantially if slow growth persists in advanced economies.
Table V-2, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Unemployment Rate as Percent of Labor Force
% Labor Force 2014 | % Labor Force 2015 | % Labor Force 2016 | % Labor Force 2017 | % Labor Force 2018 | |
World | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
G7 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.2 |
Canada | 6.9 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.8 |
France | 10.3 | 10.4 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 9.3 |
DE | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
Italy | 12.6 | 11.9 | 11.7 | 11.4 | 11.0 |
Japan | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 |
UK | 6.2 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.1 |
US | 6.2 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.6 |
Euro Area | 11.7 | 10.9 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 9.1 |
DE | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
France | 10.3 | 10.4 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 9.3 |
Italy | 12.6 | 11.9 | 11.7 | 11.4 | 11.0 |
POT | 13.9 | 12.4 | 11.1 | 10.6 | 10.1 |
Ireland | 11.3 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 6.5 | 6.3 |
Greece | 26.5 | 24.9 | 23.8 | 21.9 | 21.0 |
Spain | 24.4 | 22.1 | 19.6 | 17.7 | 16.6 |
EMDE | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
Brazil | 6.8 | 8.3 | 11.3 | 12.1 | 11.6 |
Russia | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
India | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
China | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries)
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2017/01/weodata/index.aspx
Table V-3 provides the latest available estimates of GDP for the regions and countries followed in this blog from IQ2012 to IVQ2016 available now for all countries. There are estimates for all countries for IIIQ2016 and for IVQ2016. There are preliminary estimates for IQ2017. Growth is weak throughout most of the world.
- Japan. The GDP of Japan increased 1.1 percent in IQ2012, 4.4 percent at SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) and 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier but part of the jump could be the low level a year earlier because of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan is experiencing difficulties with the overvalued yen because of worldwide capital flight originating in zero interest rates with risk aversion in an environment of softer growth of world trade. Japan’s GDP fell 0.4 percent in IIQ2012 at the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of minus 1.7 percent, which is much lower than 4.4 percent in IQ2012. Growth of 2.9 percent in IIQ2012 in Japan relative to IIQ2011 has effects of the low level of output because of Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IIIQ2012 at the SAAR of minus 1.7 percent and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 at the SAAR of 0.5 percent and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan grew 1.2 percent in IQ2013 at the SAAR of 4.9 percent and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 1.0 percent in IIQ2013 at the SAAR of 4.1 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP grew 0.6 percent in IIIQ2013 at the SAAR of 2.5 percent and increased 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Japan’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent at the SAAR of minus 0.4 percent, increasing 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 1.1 percent in IQ2014 at the SAAR of 4.4 percent and increased 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Japan’s GDP fell 1.9 percent at the SAAR of minus 7.4 percent and fell 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.2 percent in IIIQ2014 at the SAAR of minus 0.6 percent and fell 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, Japan’s GDP grew 0.7 percent, at the SAAR of 3.0 percent, decreasing 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 1.1 percent in IQ2015 at the SAAR of 4.7 percent and decreased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IIQ2015 at the SAAR of minus 0.3 percent and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2015 at the SAAR of 0.7 percent and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.2 percent in IVQ2015 at the SAAR of minus 1.0 percent and grew 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, the GDP of Japan increased 0.6 percent at the SAAR of 2.5 percent and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2016 at the SAAR of 1.6 percent and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of Japan increased 0.3 percent at the SAAR of 1.0 percent and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2016 at the SAAR of 1.4 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, the GDP of Japan increased 0.3 percent at the SAAR of 1.0 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier.
- China. China’s GDP grew 1.8 percent in IQ2012, annualizing to 7.4 percent, and 8.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 2.1 percent in IIQ2012, which annualizes to 8.7 percent, and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 1.9 percent in IIIQ2012, which annualizes at 7.8 percent, and 7.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, China grew at 2.0 percent, which annualizes at 8.2 percent, and 8.1 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, China grew at 1.8 percent, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and 7.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, China grew at 1.7 percent, which annualizes at 7.0 percent, and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 2.2 percent in IIIQ2013, which annualizes at 9.1 percent, and increased 7.9 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 1.7 percent in IVQ2013, which annualized to 7.0 percent, and 7.7 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP grew 1.5 percent in IQ2014, which annualizes to 6.1 percent, and 7.4 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP grew 1.8 percent in IIQ2014, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and 7.5 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP grew 1.8 percent in IIIQ2014, which is equivalent to 7.4 percent in a year, and 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew 1.9 percent in IVQ2014, which annualizes at 7.8 percent, and 7.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 2.0 percent in IQ2015, which annualizes at 8.2 percent, and 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew 1.7 percent in IIQ2015, which annualizes at 7.0 percent, and increased 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2015, China’s GDP grew at 1.8 percent, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 1.5 percent in IVQ2015, which annualizes at 6.1 percent, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew 1.3 percent in IQ2016, which annualizes at 5.3 percent, and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2016, the GDP of China increased 1.9 percent, which annualizes to 7.8 percent, and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China increased at 1.8 percent in IIIQ2016, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China increased at 1.7 percent in IVQ2016, which annualizes at 7.0 percent, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China increased at 1.3 percent in IQ2017, which annualizes at 5.3 percent and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. There is decennial change in leadership in China (http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/special/18cpcnc/index.htm). Growth rates of GDP of China in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier have been declining from 2011 to 2017.
- Euro Area. GDP fell 0.2 percent in the euro area in IQ2012 and decreased 0.5 in IQ2012 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP contracted 0.3 percent IIQ2012 and fell 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.2 percent and declined 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.5 percent relative to the prior quarter and fell 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, the GDP of the euro area fell 0.3 percent and decreased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2013, euro area GDP increased 0.3 percent and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2013 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The euro area’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 0.8 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The euro area’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2016 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, euro are GDP increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier.
- Germany. The GDP of Germany increased 0.4 percent in IQ2012 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier but 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier when adjusted for calendar (CA) effects. In IIIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP contracted 0.5 percent in IVQ2012 and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, Germany’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent and fell 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 0.9 percent and grew 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2013 and grew 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.6 percent in IQ2014 and grew 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Germany’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.2 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2015 and grew 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2015 and grew 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2015 and grew 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, the GDP of Germany increased 0.7 percent and grew 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of Germany increased 0.2 percent and grew 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2016 and grew 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, the GDP of Germany increased 0.6 percent and grew 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier.
- United States. Growth of US GDP in IQ2012 was 0.7 percent, at SAAR of 2.7 percent and higher by 2.8 percent relative to IQ2011. US GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2012, 1.9 percent at SAAR and 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, US GDP grew 0.1 percent, 0.5 percent at SAAR and 2.4 percent relative to IIIQ2011. In IVQ2012, US GDP grew 0.0 percent, 0.1 percent at SAAR and 1.3 percent relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, US GDP grew at 2.8 percent SAAR, 0.7 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.3 percent relative to the same quarter in 2012. In IIQ2013, US GDP grew at 0.8 percent in SAAR, 0.2 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.0 percent relative to IIQ2012. US GDP grew at 3.1 percent in SAAR in IIIQ2013, 0.8 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.7 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/dollar-devaluation-and-rising-yields.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html). In IVQ2013, US GDP grew 1.0 percent at 4.0 percent SAAR and 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, US GDP decreased 0.3 percent, increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier and fell 1.2 percent at SAAR. In IIQ2014, US GDP increased 1.0 percent at 4.0 percent SAAR and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP increased 1.2 percent in IIIQ2014 at 5.0 percent SAAR and increased 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, US GDP increased 0.6 percent at SAAR of 2.3 percent and increased 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2015 at SAAR of 2.0 percent and grew 3.3 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR 2.6 percent in IIQ2015, increasing 0.6 percent in the quarter and 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2015 at SAAR of 2.0 percent and grew 2.2 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 0.9 percent in IVQ2015, increasing 0.2 percent in the quarter and 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, US GDP grew 0.2 percent at SAAR of 0.8 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 1.4 percent in IIQ2016, increasing 0.4 percent in the quarter and 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, US GDP grew 0.9 percent at SAAR of 3.5 percent and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.1 percent in IVQ2016, increasing 0.5 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, US GDP grew 0.4 percent at SAAR of 1.4 percent and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier.
- United Kingdom. In IQ2012, UK GDP increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, GDP fell 0.1 percent relative to IQ2012 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, GDP increased 1.1 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier. In IVQ2012, GDP fell 0.2 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Fiscal consolidation in an environment of weakening economic growth is much more challenging. GDP increased 1.5 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 0.6 percent in IQ2013 relative to IVQ2012. In IIQ2013, GDP increased 0.5 percent and 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIIQ2013 and 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2013 and 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, GDP increased 0.8 percent and 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.9 percent in IIQ2014 and 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIIQ2014 and 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, GDP increased 0.8 percent and 3.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2015 and increased 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2016 and grew 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2016 and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2017 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier.
- Italy. Italy’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, the GDP of Italy increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2016, GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2015, GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy changed 0.0 percent in IQ2014 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2013 and fell 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2013 and fell 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.1 in IIQ2013 and fell 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 1.1 percent in IQ2013 and declined 2.9 percent relative to IQ2012. GDP had been growing during six consecutive quarters but at very low rates from IQ2010 to IIQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell in seven consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at increasingly higher rates of contraction from 0.5 percent in IIIQ2011 to 1.0 percent in IVQ2011, 0.9 percent in IQ2012, 0.8 percent in IIQ2012 and 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012. The pace of decline accelerated to minus 0.6 percent in IVQ2012 and minus 1.1 percent in IQ2013. GDP contracted cumulatively 5.3 percent in seven consecutive quarterly contractions from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at the annual equivalent rate of minus 3.1 percent. The yearly rate has fallen from 2.2 percent in IVQ2010 to minus 2.8 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.9 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.0 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.3 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.7 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.0 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.1 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.0 percent in IIIQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.1 percent in IVQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.2 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier. Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of Italy in IQ2017 of €395,783 million (http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/200568) is lower by 6.8 percent relative to €424,823.8 million in IQ2008. Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of Italy increased from €367,664.4 million in IQ1998 to €424,823.8 million in IQ2008 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.5 percent. The fiscal adjustment of Italy is significantly more difficult with the economy not growing especially on the prospects of increasing government revenue. The strategy is for reforms to improve productivity, facilitating future fiscal consolidation.
- France. France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2012 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IIQ2012 and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2013 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2013 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2013 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2015, France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2015, the GDP of France increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France decreased 0.1 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, the GDP of France increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier.
Table V-3, Percentage Changes of GDP Quarter on Prior Quarter and on Same Quarter Year Earlier, ∆%
IQ2012/IVQ2011 | IQ2012/IQ2011 | |
United States | QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.7 | 2.8 |
Japan | QOQ: 1.1 SAAR: 4.4 | 2.9 |
China | 1.8 | 8.1 |
Euro Area | -0.2 | -0.5 |
Germany | 0.4 | 1.6 |
France | 0.1 | 0.4 |
Italy | -0.9 | -2.3 |
United Kingdom | 0.4 | 1.2 |
IIQ2012/IQ2012 | IIQ2012/IIQ2011 | |
United States | QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 1.9 | 2.5 |
Japan | QOQ: -0.4 | 2.9 |
China | 2.1 | 7.6 |
Euro Area | -0.3 | -0.8 |
Germany | 0.1 | 0.4 0.9 CA |
France | -0.1 | 0.3 |
Italy | -0.8 | -3.2 |
United Kingdom | -0.1 | 1.0 |
IIIQ2012/ IIQ2012 | IIIQ2012/ IIIQ2011 | |
United States | QOQ: 0.1 | 2.4 |
Japan | QOQ: –0.4 | 0.0 |
China | 1.9 | 7.5 |
Euro Area | -0.2 | -1.0 |
Germany | 0.2 | 0.2 |
France | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Italy | -0.5 | -3.2 |
United Kingdom | 1.1 | 1.8 |
IVQ2012/IIIQ2012 | IVQ2012/IVQ2011 | |
United States | QOQ: 0.0 | 1.3 |
Japan | QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.5 | 0.2 |
China | 2.0 | 8.1 |
Euro Area | -0.5 | -1.1 |
Germany | -0.5 | -0.1 |
France | -0.1 | 0.0 |
Italy | -0.6 | -2.8 |
United Kingdom | -0.2 | 1.3 |
IQ2013/IVQ2012 | IQ2013/IQ2012 | |
United States | QOQ: 0.7 | 1.3 |
Japan | QOQ: 1.2 SAAR: 4.9 | 0.7 |
China | 1.8 | 7.9 |
Euro Area | -0.3 | -1.2 |
Germany | -0.2 | -1.5 |
France | 0.0 | -0.1 |
Italy | -1.1 | -2.9 |
UK | 0.6 | 1.5 |
IIQ2013/IQ2013 | IIQ2013/IIQ2012 | |
United States | QOQ: 0.2 SAAR: 0.8 | 1.0 |
Japan | QOQ: 1.0 SAAR: 4.1 | 1.8 |
China | 1.7 | 7.6 |
Euro Area | 0.5 | -0.4 |
Germany | 0.9 | 0.9 |
France | 0.7 | 0.8 |
Italy | 0.1 | -2.0 |
UK | 0.5 | 2.1 |
IIIQ2013/IIQ2013 | III/Q2013/ IIIQ2012 | |
USA | QOQ: 0.8 | 1.7 |
Japan | QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.5 | 2.8 |
China | 2.2 | 7.9 |
Euro Area | 0.3 | 0.0 |
Germany | 0.4 | 1.2 |
France | 0.0 | 0.6 |
Italy | 0.3 | -1.3 |
UK | 0.8 | 1.7 |
IVQ2013/IIIQ2013 | IVQ2013/IVQ2012 | |
USA | QOQ: 1.0 SAAR: 4.0 | 2.7 |
Japan | QOQ: -0.1 SAAR: -0.4 | 2.7 |
China | 1.7 | 7.7 |
Euro Area | 0.2 | 0.8 |
Germany | 0.4 | 1.4 |
France | 0.4 | 1.1 |
Italy | 0.0 | -0.7 |
UK | 0.5 | 2.4 |
IQ2014/IVQ2013 | IQ2014/IQ2013 | |
USA | QOQ -0.3 SAAR -1.2 | 1.6 |
Japan | QOQ: 1.1 SAAR: 4.4 | 3.1 |
China | 1.5 | 7.4 |
Euro Area | 0.4 | 1.4 |
Germany | 0.6 | 2.6 |
France | 0.0 | 1.2 |
Italy | 0.0 | 0.4 |
UK | 0.8 | 2.6 |
IIQ2014/IQ2014 | IIQ2014/IIQ2013 | |
USA | QOQ 1.0 SAAR 4.0 | 2.4 |
Japan | QOQ: -1.9 SAAR: -7.4 | -0.3 |
China | 1.8 | 7.5 |
Euro Area | 0.2 | 1.1 |
Germany | -0.1 | 0.9 |
France | 0.2 | 0.7 |
Italy | 0.0 | 0.2 |
UK | 0.9 | 3.1 |
IIIQ2014/IIQ2014 | IIIQ2014/IIIQ2013 | |
USA | QOQ: 1.2 SAAR: 5.0 | 2.9 |
Japan | QOQ: -0.2 SAAR: -0.6 | -1.1 |
China | 1.8 | 7.1 |
Euro Area | 0.4 | 1.2 |
Germany | 0.3 | 1.2 |
France | 0.6 | 1.3 |
Italy | 0.1 | 0.1 |
UK | 0.8 | 3.1 |
IVQ2014/IIIQ2014 | IVQ2014/IVQ2013 | |
USA | QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.3 | 2.5 |
Japan | QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 3.0 | -0.3 |
China | 1.9 | 7.2 |
Euro Area | 0.4 | 1.4 |
Germany | 0.8 | 1.7 |
France | 0.0 | 0.8 |
Italy | -0.1 | 0.1 |
UK | 0.8 | 3.5 |
IQ2015/IVQ2014 | IQ2015/IQ2014 | |
USA | QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.0 | 3.3 |
Japan | QOQ: 1.1 SAAR: 4.7 | -0.2 |
China | 2.0 | 7.0 |
Euro Area | 0.8 | 1.8 |
Germany | 0.2 | 1.3 |
France | 0.4 | 1.2 |
Italy | 0.3 | 0.3 |
UK | 0.3 | 2.8 |
IIQ2015/IQ2015 | IIQ2015/IIQ2014 | |
USA | QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.6 | 3.0 |
Japan | QOQ: -0.1 SAAR: -0.3 | 1.7 |
China | 1.7 | 7.0 |
Euro Area | 0.4 | 2.0 |
Germany | 0.5 | 1.8 |
France | 0.0 | 0.9 |
Italy | 0.4 | 0.7 |
UK | 0.5 | 2.4 |
IIIQ2015/IIQ2015 | IIIQ2015/IIIQ2014 | |
USA | QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.0 | 2.2 |
Japan | QOQ: 0.2 SAAR: 0.7 | 2.0 |
China | 1.8 | 6.9 |
Euro Area | 0.3 | 1.9 |
Germany | 0.2 | 1.8 |
France | 0.4 | 0.8 |
Italy | 0.1 | 0.7 |
UK | 0.3 | 1.8 |
IVQ2015/IIIQ2015 | IVQ2015/IVQ2014 | |
USA | QOQ: 0.2 SAAR: 0.9 | 1.9 |
Japan | QOQ: -0.2 SAAR: -1.0 | 0.9 |
China | 1.5 | 6.8 |
Euro Area | 0.4 | 1.9 |
Germany | 0.4 | 2.1 |
France | 0.3 | 1.0 |
Italy | 0.2 | 1.0 |
UK | 0.7 | 1.7 |
IQ2016/IVQ2015 | IQ2016/IQ2015 | |
USA | QOQ: 0.2 SAAR: 0.8 | 1.6 |
Japan | QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.5 | 0.5 |
China | 1.3 | 6.7 |
Euro Area | 0.5 | 1.7 |
Germany | 0.7 | 1.5 |
France | 0.6 | 1.2 |
Italy | 0.4 | 1.1 |
UK | 0.2 | 1.6 |
IIQ2016/IQ2016 | IIQ2016/IIQ2015 | |
USA | QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.4 | 1.3 |
Japan | QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.6 | 0.9 |
China | 1.9 | 6.7 |
Euro Area | 0.3 | 1.6 |
Germany | 0.5 | 3.2 |
France | -0.1 | 1.2 |
Italy | 0.1 | 0.8 |
UK | 0.6 | 1.7 |
IIIQ2016/IIQ2016 | IIIQ2016/IIIQ2015 | |
United States | QOQ: 0.9 SAAR: 3.5 | 1.7 |
Japan | QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.0 | 1.1 |
China | 1.8 | 6.7 |
Euro Area | 0.4 | 1.8 |
Germany | 0.2 | 1.6 |
France | 0.2 | 0.9 |
Italy | 0.3 | 1.0 |
UK | 0.5 | 2.0 |
IVQ2016/IIIQ2016 | IVQ2016/IVQ2015 | |
United States | QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.1 | 2.0 |
Japan | QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.4 | 1.6 |
China | 1.7 | 6.8 |
Euro Area | 0.5 | 1.8 |
Germany | 0.4 | 1.3 |
France | 0.5 | 1.2 |
Italy | 0.3 | 1.1 |
UK | 0.7 | 1.9 |
IQ2017/IVQ2016 | IQ2017/IQ2016 | |
United States | QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.4 | 2.1 |
Japan | QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.0 | 1.3 |
China | 1.3 | 6.9 |
Euro Area | 0.6 | 1.9 |
Germany | 0.6 | 2.9 |
France | 0.5 | 1.1 |
Italy | 0.4 | 1.2 |
UK | 0.2 | 2.0 |
QOQ: Quarter relative to prior quarter; SAAR: seasonally adjusted annual rate
Source: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.census.gov/aboutus/stat_int.html
Table V-4 provides two types of data: growth of exports and imports in the latest available months and in the past 12 months; and contributions of net trade (exports less imports) to growth of real GDP.
- Japan. Japan provides the most worrisome data (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/global-decline-of-values-of-financial.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/07/valuation-of-risk-financial-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/fluctuating-financial-asset-valuations.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/dollar-revaluation-squeezing-corporate.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/patience-on-interest-rate-increases.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/monetary-policy-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/valuation-risks-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/interest-rate-risks-world-inflation.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/global-financial-risk-world-inflation.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations_8763.html http://cmpass ocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/paring-quantitative-easing-policy-and_4699.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/thirty-one-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/12/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_24.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/11/contraction-of-united-states-real_25.html and for GDP http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what_13.html). In May 2017, Japan’s exports increased 14.9 percent in 12 months while imports increased 17.8 percent. The second part of Table V-4 shows that net trade deducted 1.9 percentage points from Japan’s growth of GDP in IIQ2012, deducted 2.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2012 and deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2012. Net trade added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2012, 1.4 percentage points in IQ2013 and deducted 0.1 percentage points in IIQ2013. In IIIQ2013, net trade deducted 1.4 percentage points from GDP growth in Japan. Net trade deducted 2.1 percentage points from GDP growth in Japan in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth of Japan in IQ2014. Net trade added 3.9 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2014 and added 1.5 percentage points in IVQ2014. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2015 and deducted 0.8 percentage points in IIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.4 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2015 and added 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2015. Net trade added 1.8 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2016 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIQ2016. Net trade added 1.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2016 and added 1.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2016. Net trade added 0.6 percentage points in IQ2017.
- China. In May 2017, China exports increased 11.3 percent relative to a year earlier and imports increased 17.3 percent.
- Germany. Germany’s exports increased 1.4 percent in the month of May 2017 and increased 14.1 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2017. Germany’s imports increased 1.2 percent in the month of May 2017 and increased 16.2 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2017. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to growth of GDP in IQ2012, contributed 0.4 percentage points in IIQ2012, contributed 0.3 percentage points in IIIQ2012, deducted 0.5 percentage points in IVQ2012, deducted 0.3 percentage points in IQ2013 and added 0.1 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded deducted 0.5 percentage points from Germany’s GDP growth in IIIQ2013 and added 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2014. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2014 and added 0.5 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 0.1 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.5 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points in IVQ2015 and contributed 0.1 percentage points in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.4 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017.
- United Kingdom. Net trade contributed 0.7 percentage points in IIQ2013. In IIIQ2013, net trade deducted 1.7 percentage points from UK growth. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to UK value added in IVQ2013. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to UK value added in IQ2014 and 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2014 and added 0.3 percentage points in IVQ2014. Net traded deducted 0.4 percentage points from growth in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade added 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2015. Net trade deducted 1.1-percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 1.4 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade added 1.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.8 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2017.
- France. France’s exports increased 4.3 percent in May 2017 while imports increased 2.2 percent. France’s exports increased 7.2 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2017 and imports increased 12.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Net traded added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IIIQ2012 and 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IQ2013 and added 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2013, deducting 1.7 percentage points in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IVQ2013 and deducted 0.1 percentage points in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IIQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to France’s GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.6 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015 and deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.3 percentage points to GDP in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP in IIIQ2016 and added 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP in IQ2017.
United States. US exports increased 0.5 percent in May 2017 and goods exports increased 6.8 percent in Jan-May 2017 relative to a year earlier. Imports decreased 0.1 percent in May 2016 and goods imports increased 7.7 percent in Jan-May 2017 relative to a year earlier. Net trade added 0.28 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2012 and added 0.16 percentage points in IIIQ2012 and 0.58 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade added 0.30 percentage points to US GDP growth in IQ2013 and deducted 0.21 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded added 0.13 percentage points to US GDP growth in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 1.29 percentage points to US GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 1.16 percentage points from US GDP growth in IQ2014 and deducted 0.41 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade added 0.50 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2014. Net trade deducted 1.14 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 1.65 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.08 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.52 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.45 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015. Net trade added 0.01 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.18 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade added 0.85 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade deducted 1.82 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2016. Net trade added 0.23 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017. Industrial production increased 0.4 percent in Jun 2017 and increased 0.1 percent in May 2017 after increasing 0.8 percent in Apr 2017, with all data seasonally adjusted. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System conducted the annual revision of industrial production released on Mar 31, 2017 (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/revisions/Current/DefaultRev.htm):
“The Federal Reserve has revised its index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization.[1] On net, the revisions were small, and the contour of total IP is little changed. Total IP is still reported to have moved up about 22 percent from the end of the recession in mid-2009 through late 2014, to have declined in 2015, and to have moved sideways in 2016. The most notable difference between the current and the previous estimates is that total IP is now reported to have decreased about 2 3/4 percent in 2015, whereas it previously showed a decline of about 1 3/4 percent.[2] The incorporation of detailed data for manufacturing from the U.S. Census Bureau's 2015 Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM) accounts for the majority of the differences between the current and the previously published estimates.
- Capacity for total industry is now reported to have expanded about 1 percent in 2015, a lower rate of increase than was reported earlier. Capacity was little changed in 2016 and is expected to increase 1 percent in 2017. Compared with prior reports, the rates of change in 2016 and 2017 are now a little smaller. In the fourth quarter of 2016, capacity utilization for total industry stood at 75.8 percent, a rate 0.4 percentage point higher than previously published but still 4.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2016) average. Relative to earlier estimates, the utilization rates in recent years are now a little higher.” Manufacturing fell 22.3 from the peak in Jun 2007 to the trough in Apr 2009 and increased 15.5 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Dec 2016. Manufacturing grew 20.8 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Jun 2017. Manufacturing in Jun 2017 is lower by 6.2 percent relative to the peak in Jun 2007. The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IQ2017 would have accumulated to 31.4 percent. GDP in IQ2017 would be $19,699.2 billion (in constant dollars of 2009) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $2826.4 billion than actual $16,872.8 billion. There are about two trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 21.9 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 13.0 percent of the effective labor force (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/rising-yields-twenty-two-million.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html). US GDP in IQ2017 is 14.3 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $14,991.8 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $16,872.8 billion in IQ2017 or 12.5 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.3 percent. Professor John H. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. Cochrane (2016May02) measures GDP growth in the US at average 3.5 percent per year from 1950 to 2000 and only at 1.76 percent per year from 2000 to 2015 with only at 2.0 percent annual equivalent in the current expansion. Cochrane (2016May02) proposes drastic changes in regulation and legal obstacles to private economic activity. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 3.1 percent per year from Jun 1919 to Jun 2017. Growth at 3.1 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output from 108.2393 in Dec 2007 to 144.6580 in Jun 2017. The actual index NSA in Jun 2017 is 105.6126, which is 27.0 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 2.1 percent between Dec 1986 and Jun 2017. Using trend growth of 2.1 percent per year, the index would increase to 131.8650 in Jun 2017. The output of manufacturing at 105.6126 in Jun 2017 is 19.9 percent below trend under this alternative calculation.
Table V-4, Growth of Trade and Contributions of Net Trade to GDP Growth, ∆% and % Points
Exports | Exports 12 M ∆% | Imports | Imports 12 M ∆% | |
USA | 0.5 May | 6.8 Jan-May | -0.1 May | 7.7 Jan-May |
Japan | May 14.9 Apr 7.5 Mar 2017 12.0 Feb 2017 11.3 Jan 2017 1.3 Dec 2016 5.4 Nov 2016 -0.4 Oct 2016 -10.3 Sep 2016 -6.9 Aug 2016 9.6 Jul 2016 -14.0 Jun 2016 -7.8 May 2016 -11.3 Apr 2016 -10.1 Mar 2016 -6.8 Feb 2016 -4.0 Jan 2016 -12.9 Dec 2015 -8.0 Nov 2015 -3.3 Oct 2015 -2.1 Sep 2015 0.6 Aug 3.1 Jul 2015 7.6 Jun 2015 9.5 May 2015 2.4 Apr 8.0 Mar 8.5 Feb 2.4 Jan 17.0 Dec 12.9 Nov 4.9 Oct 9.6 Sep 6.9 Aug -1.3 Jul 3.9 Jun -2.0 May 2014 -2.7 Apr 2014 5.1 Mar 2014 1.8 Feb 2014 9.5 Jan 2014 9.5 Dec 2013 15.3 Nov 2013 18.4 Oct 2013 18.6 Sep 2013 11.5 Aug 2013 14.7 Jul 2013 12.2 Jun 2013 7.4 May 2013 10.1 Apr 2013 3.8 Mar 2013 1.1 Feb 2013 -2.9 Jan 2013 6.4 Dec -5.8 Nov -4.1 Oct -6.5 Sep -10.3 Aug -5.8 Jul -8.1 | May 17.8 Apr 15.1 Mar 2017 15.8 Feb 2017 1.2 Jan 2017 8.5 Dec 2016 -2.6 Nov 2016 -8.8 Oct 2016 -16.5 Sep 2016 -16.3 Aug 2016 -17.3 Jul 2016 -24.7 Jun 2016 -18.8 May 2016 -13.8 Apr 2016 -23.3 Mar 2016 -14.9 Feb 2016 -14.2 Jan 2016 -18.0 Dec 2015 -18.0 Nov 2015 -10.2 Oct 2015 -13.4 Sep 2015 -11.1 Aug -3.1 Jul 2015 -3.2 Jun 2015 -2.9 May 2015 -8.7 Apr -4.2 Mar -14.5 Feb -3.6 Jan -9.0 Dec 1.9 Nov -1.7 Oct 2.7 Sep 6.2 Aug -1.5 Jul 2.3 Jun 8.4 May 2014 -3.6 Apr 2013 3.4 Mar 2014 18.1 Feb 2014 9.0 Jan 2014 25.0 Dec 2013 24.7 Nov 2013 21.1 Oct 2013 26.1 Sep 2013 16.5 Aug 2013 16.0 Jul 2013 19.6 Jun 2013 11.8 May 2013 10.0 Apr 2013 9.4 Mar 2013 5.5 Feb 2013 7.3 Jan 2013 7.3 Dec 1.9 Nov 0.8 Oct -1.6 Sep 4.1 Aug -5.4 Jul 2.1 | ||
China | Jan-Dec 2016 -7.7 Jan-Dec 2015 -2.8 | 2017 Jun 11.3 May 8.7 Apr 8.0 Mar 16.4 Feb -1.3 Jan 7.9 2016 Dec 3.1 Nov 0.1 Oct -7.3 Sep -10.0 Aug -2.8 Jul -4.4 Jun -4.8 May -4.1 Apr -1.8 Mar 11.5 Feb -25.4 Jan -11.2 2015 -1.4 Dec -6.8 Nov -6.9 Oct -3.7 Sep -5.5 Aug -8.3 Jul 2.8 Jun -2.5 May -6.4 Apr -15.0 Mar 48.3 Feb -3.3 Jan 2014 9.7 Dec 4.7 Nov 11.6 Oct 15.3 Sep 9.4 Aug 14.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 7.0 May 0.9 Apr -6.6 Mar -18.1 Feb 10.6 Jan 2013 4.3 Dec 12.7 Nov 5.6 Oct -0.3 Sep 7.2 Aug 5.1 Jul -3.1 Jun 1.0 May 14.7 Apr 10.0 Mar 21.8 Feb 25.0 Jan | Jan-Dec 2016 -5.5 Jan-Dec 2015 -14.1 | 2017 Jun 17.3 May 14.8 Apr 11.9 Mar 20.3 Feb 38.1 Jan 16.7 2016 Dec -7.7 Nov 6.7 Oct -1.4 Sep -1.9 Aug 1.5 Jul -12.5 Jun -2.8 May -0.4 Apr -10.6 Mar -7.6 Feb -13.8 Jan -18.8 2015 -7.6 Dec -8.7 Nov -18.8 Oct -20.4 Sep -13.8 Aug -8.1 Jul -6.1 Jun -17.6 May -12.7 Mar -20.5 Feb -19.9 Jan 2014 -2.4 Dec -6.7 Nov 4.6 Oct 7.0 Sep -2.4 Aug -1.6 Jul 5.5 Jun -1.6 May -0.8 Apr -11.3 Mar 10.1 Feb 10.0 Jan 2013 8.3 Dec 5.3 Nov 7.6 Oct 7.4 Sep 7.0 Aug 10.9 Jul -0.7 Jun -0.3 May 16.8 Apr 14.1 Mar -15.2 Feb 28.8 Jan |
Euro Area | 13.0 12-M May | 8.6 Jan-May | 16.4 12-M May | 12.3 Jan-May |
Germany | 1.4 May CSA | 14.1 May | 1.2 May CSA | 16.2 May |
France May | 4.3 | 7.2 | 2.2 | 12.0 |
Italy May | 1.2 | 13.1 | 3.2 | 17.5 |
UK | 0.9 May | 11.9 Feb 17-May 17 /Feb 16-May 16 | 2.7 May | 11.0 Feb 17-May 17 /Feb 16-May 17 |
Net Trade % Points GDP Growth | Points | |||
USA | IQ2017 0.23 IVQ2016 -1.82 IIIQ2016 0.85 IIQ2016 0.18 IQ2016 0.01 IVQ2015 -0.45 IIIQ2015 -0.52 IIQ2015 -0.08 IQ2015 -1.65 IVQ2014 -1.14 IIIQ2014 0.50 IIQ2014 -0.41 IQ2014 -1.16 IVQ2013 1.29 IIIQ2013 0.13 IIQ2013 -0.21 IQ2013 0.30 IVQ2012 +0.58 IIIQ2012 0.16 IIQ2012 0.28 IQ2012 -0.02 | |||
Japan | 0.6 IQ2012 -1.9 IIQ2012 -2.0 IIIQ2012 -0.3 IVQ2012 1.4 IQ2013 -0.1 IIQ2013 -1.4 IIIQ2013 -2.1 IVQ2013 -0.7 IQ2014 3.9 IIQ2014 -0.2 IIIQ2014 1.5 IVQ2014 0.2 IQ2015 -0.8 IIQ2015 -0.4 IIIQ2015 0.1 IVQ2015 1.8 IQ2016 -0.2 IIQ2016 1.5 IIIQ2016 1.5 IVQ2016 0.6 IQ2017 | |||
Germany | IQ2012 0.8 IIQ2012 0.4 IIIQ2012 0.3 IVQ2012 -0.5 IQ2013 -0.3 IIQ2013 0.1 IIIQ2013 -0.5 IVQ2013 0.5 IQ2014 0.0 IIQ2014 0.2 IIIQ2014 0.5 IVQ2014 -0.3 IQ2015 -0.1 IIQ2015 0.6 IIIQ2015 -0.5 IVQ2015 -0.6 IQ2016 0.1 IIQ2016 0.4 IIIQ2016 -0.4 IVQ2016 -0.2 IQ2017 0.4 | |||
France | 0.1 IIIQ2012 0.1 IVQ2012 -0.1 IQ2013 0.3 IIQ2013 -1.7 IIIQ2013 0.1 IVQ2013 -0.1 IQ2014 -0.2 IIQ2014 -0.2 IIIQ2014 0.2 IVQ2014 -0.2 IQ2015 0.4 IIQ2015 -0.6 IIIQ2015 -0.7 IVQ2015 -0.1 IQ2016 0.3 IIQ2016 -0.7 IIIQ2016 0.1 IVQ2016 -0.6 IQ2017 | |||
UK | 0.7 IIQ2013 -1.7 IIIQ2013 0.1 IVQ2013 0.8 IQ2014 0.3 IIQ2014 -0.7 IIIQ2014 0.3 IVQ2014 -0.4 IQ2015 0.5 IIQ2015 -0.4 IIIQ2015 1.1 IVQ2015 -1.1 IQ2016 0.3 IIQ2016 -1.4 IIIQ2016 1.7 IVQ2016 -0.8 IQ2017 |
Sources: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/
The geographical breakdown of exports and imports of Japan with selected regions and countries is in Table V-5 for May 2017. The share of Asia in Japan’s trade is close to one-half for 55.3 percent of exports and 48.3 percent of imports. Within Asia, exports to China are 19.1 percent of total exports and imports from China 23.6 percent of total imports. While exports of Japan to China increased 23.9 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2017, imports from China increased 9.6 percent. The second largest export market for Japan in May 2017 is the US with share of 18.5 percent of total exports, which is close to that of China, and share of imports from the US of 11.1 percent in total imports. Japan’s exports to the US increased 11.6 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2017 and imports from the US increased 7.4 percent. Western Europe has share of 12.4 percent in Japan’s exports and of 12.8 percent in imports. Rates of growth of exports of Japan in May 2017 are 11.6 percent for exports to the US, 1.0 percent for exports to Brazil and 12.8 percent for exports to Germany. Comparisons relative to 2011 may have some bias because of the effects of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Deceleration of growth in China and the US and threat of recession in Europe can reduce world trade and economic activity. Growth rates of imports in the 12 months ending in May 2017 are mixed. Imports from Asia increased 14.4 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2017 while imports from China increased 9.6 percent. Data are in millions of yen, which may have effects of recent depreciation of the yen relative to the United States dollar (USD) and revaluation of the dollar relative to the euro.
Table V-5, Japan, Value and 12-Month Percentage Changes of Exports and Imports by Regions and Countries, ∆% and Millions of Yen
May 2017 | Exports | 12 months ∆% | Imports Millions Yen | 12 months ∆% |
Total | 5,851,360 | 14.9 | 6,054,727 | 17.8 |
Asia | 3,234,449 % Total 55.3 | 16.8 | 2,925,394 % Total 48.3 | 14.4 |
China | 1,117,286 % Total 19.1 | 23.9 | 1,429,130 % Total 23.6 | 9.6 |
USA | 1,082,419 % Total 18.5 | 11.6 | 671,300 % Total 11.1 | 7.4 |
Canada | 83,946 | 30.3 | 109,237 | 42.4 |
Brazil | 25,913 | 1.0 | 60,101 | 6.3 |
Mexico | 101,055 | 24.2 | 43,356 | -6.3 |
Western Europe | 724,461 % Total 12.4 | 23.1 | 775,279 % Total 12.8 | 11.6 |
Germany | 158,616 | 12.8 | 214,605 | 8.2 |
France | 52,489 | 9.4 | 99,119 | 3.7 |
UK | 126,468 | 16.3 | 63,681 | 16.4 |
Middle East | 149,527 | -16.9 | 618,317 | 24.1 |
Australia | 123,042 | 1.3 | 346,190 | 51.1 |
Source: Japan, Ministry of Finance http://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/info/index_e.htm
World trade projections of the IMF are in Table V-6. There is increasing growth of the volume of world trade of goods and services from 3.8 percent in 2017 to 4.1 percent in 2017, increasing to 4.3 percent in 2018. Growth improves to 4.2 percent on average from 2017 to 2021. World trade would be slower for advanced economies while emerging and developing economies (EMDE) experience faster growth. World economic slowdown would be more challenging with lower growth of world trade.
Table V-6, IMF, Projections of World Trade, USD Billions, USD/Barrel and Annual ∆%
2017 | 2018 | 2019 | Average ∆% 2017-2021 | |
World Trade Volume (Goods and Services) | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.2 |
Exports Goods & Services | 3.6 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.0 |
Imports Goods & Services | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.3 |
Average Oil Price USD/Barrel | 42.84 | 55.23 | 55.06 | Average ∆% 2009-2018 75.41 |
Average Annual ∆% Export Unit Value of Manufactures | -5.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | Average ∆% 2009-2018 0.0 |
Exports of Goods & Services | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Average ∆% 2009-2018 |
EMDE | 2.5 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 3.6 |
G7 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 2.8 |
Imports Goods & Services | ||||
EMDE | 1.9 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 3.9 |
G7 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.6 |
Terms of Trade of Goods & Services | ||||
EMDE | -1.2 | 1.3 | -0.4 | -0.5 |
G7 | 0.9 | -0.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
Terms of Trade of Goods | ||||
EMDE | -1.4 | 1.4 | -0.4 | -0.5 |
G7 | 1.2 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
Notes: Commodity Price Index includes Fuel and Non-Fuel Prices; Commodity Industrial Inputs Price includes agricultural raw materials and metal prices; Oil price is average of WTI, Brent and Dubai
Source: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook databank
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2017/01/weodata/index.aspx
The JP Morgan Global All-Industry Output Index of the JP Morgan Manufacturing and Services PMI™, produced by JP Morgan and HIS Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM, with high association with world GDP, decreased to 53.7 in Jun from 53.8 in May, indicating expansion at slower rate (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/872fdea68158423e904c6e1b0bc4c4f1). This index has remained above the contraction territory of 50.0 during 57 consecutive months. The employment index increased from 52.0 in May to 52.2 in Jun with input prices rising at slower rate, new orders increasing at faster rate and output increasing at slower rate (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/872fdea68158423e904c6e1b0bc4c4f1). Joseph Lupton, Senior Economist at JP Morgan, finds consistent growth with recent improvement (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/872fdea68158423e904c6e1b0bc4c4f1). The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI™, produced by JP Morgan and IHS Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM, did not change to 52.6 in Jun from 52.6 in May (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/86ea13cd52754d3f87dfee492120586e). New export orders increased. Joseph Gluton, Global Economist at JP Morgan, finds consistent growth (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/86ea13cd52754d3f87dfee492120586e). The Markit Brazil Composite Output Index decreased from 50.4 in May to 48.5 in Jun, indicating contraction in activity of Brazil’s private sector (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f5652138208141b28bc9f022891e8e02). The Markit Brazil Services Business Activity index, compiled by Markit, decreased from 49.2 in May to 47.4 in Jun, indicating contracting services activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f5652138208141b28bc9f022891e8e02). Pollyanna de Lima, Economist at Markit, finds contracting services (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f5652138208141b28bc9f022891e8e02). The HIS Markit Brazil Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ IndexTM (PMI™) decreased from 52.0 in May to 50.5 in Jun, indicating manufacturing above neutral 50.0 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b9304dc2126c4b7d877e51a795220df2). Pollyanna De Lima, Economist at IHS Markit, finds slowing direction in manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b9304dc2126c4b7d877e51a795220df2).
VA United States. The HIS Markit Flash US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) seasonally adjusted decreased to 52.1 in Jun from 52.7 in May (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d3f0019960314909b58c490455819610). New export orders increased. The HIS Markit Flash US Services PMI™ Business Activity Index decreased from 53.6 in May to 53.0 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d3f0019960314909b58c490455819610). The IHS Markit Flash US Composite PMI™ Output Index decreased from 53.6 in May to 53.0 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d3f0019960314909b58c490455819610). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds that the surveys are consistent with growth at around annualized 1.5 percent in IIQ2017 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d3f0019960314909b58c490455819610). The HIS Markit US Composite PMI™ Output Index of Manufacturing and Services increased to 53.9 in Jun from 53.6 in May (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/0bf257a464424ce38cd6784efdd3d91c). The HIS Markit US Services PMI™ Business Activity Index increased from 53.6 in May to 54.2 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/0bf257a464424ce38cd6784efdd3d91c). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds the indexes suggesting growth (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/0bf257a464424ce38cd6784efdd3d91c). The HIS Markit US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) decreased to 52.0 in Jun from 52.7 in May (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/46bcdaaaf2864ca6b57258981ca8112a). New foreign orders increased. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at HIS Markit, finds slowing manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/46bcdaaaf2864ca6b57258981ca8112a). The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Report on Business® increased 2.9-percentage points from 54.9 in Apr to 57.8 in May, which indicates faster growth (https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ismreport/mfgrob.cfm?SSO=1). The index of new export orders increased 2.0 percentage points from 57/5 in May to 59.5 in Jun. The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report on Business® PMI increased 0.5 percentage points from 56.9 in May to 57.4 in Jun, indicating growth of business activity/production during 95 consecutive months, while the index of new orders increased 2.8 percentage points from 57.7 in May to 60.5 in Jun (https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/files/ISMReport/ROB201706NMI.pdf). Table USA provides the country economic indicators for the US.
Table USA, US Economic Indicators
Consumer Price Index | May 12 months NSA ∆%: 2.2; ex food and energy ∆%: 1.7 May month SA ∆%: 0.2; ex food and energy ∆%: 0.1 |
Producer Price Index | Finished Goods May 12-month NSA ∆%: 2.6; ex food and energy ∆% 1.8 Final Demand May 12-month NSA ∆%: 2.4; ex food and energy ∆% 2.1 |
PCE Inflation | May 12-month NSA ∆%: headline 1.4; ex food and energy ∆% 1.4 |
Employment Situation | Household Survey: Jun Unemployment Rate SA 4.4% |
Nonfarm Hiring | Nonfarm Hiring fell from 63.5 million in 2006 to 58.7 million in 2014 or by 4.8 million and to 62.7 million in 2016 or by 0.8 million |
GDP Growth | BEA Revised National Income Accounts IIQ2012/IIQ2011 2.5 IIIQ2012/IIIQ2011 2.4 IVQ2012/IVQ2011 1.3 IQ2013/IQ2012 1.3 IIQ2013/IIQ2012 1.0 IIIQ2013/IIIQ2012 1.7 IVQ2013/IVQ2012 2.7 IQ2014/IQ2013 1.6 IIQ2014/IIQ2013 2.4 IIIQ2014/IIIQ2013 2.9 IVQ2014/IVQ2013 2.5 IQ2015/IQ2014 3.3 IIQ2015/IIQ2014 3.0 IIIQ2015/IIIQ2014 2.2 IVQ2015/IVQ2014 1.9 IQ2016/IQ2015 1.6 IIQ2016/IIQ2015 1.3 IIIQ2016/IIIQ2015: 1.7 IVQ2016/IVQ2015 2.0 IQ2017/IQ2016 2.1 IQ2012 SAAR 2.7 IIQ2012 SAAR 1.9 IIIQ2012 SAAR 0.5 IVQ2012 SAAR 0.1 IQ2013 SAAR 2.8 IIQ2013 SAAR 0.8 IIIQ2013 SAAR 3.1 IVQ2013 SAAR 4.0 IQ2014 SAAR -1.2 IIQ2014 SAAR 4.0 IIIQ2014 SAAR 5.0 IVQ2014 SAAR 2.3 IQ2015 SAAR 2.0 IIQ2015 SAAR: 2.6 IIIQ2015 SAAR: 2.0 IVQ2015 SAAR: 0.9 IQ2016 SAAR: 0.8 IIQ2016 SAAR: 1.4 IIIQ2016 SAAR: 3.5 IVQ2016 SAAR 2.1 IQ2017 SAAR 1.4 |
Real Private Fixed Investment | SAAR IQ2017 ∆% 11.0 IVQ2007 to IQ2017: 11.1% Blog 7/2/17 |
Corporate Profits | IQ2017 SAAR: Corporate Profits -2.3; Undistributed Profits -8.5 Blog 7/2/17 |
Personal Income and Consumption | May month ∆% SA Real Disposable Personal Income (RDPI) SA ∆% 0.6 |
Quarterly Services Report | IQ17/IQ16 NSA ∆%: Financial & Insurance 7.3 Earlier Data: |
Employment Cost Index | Compensation Private IQ2017 SA ∆%: 0.5 Mar 12 months ∆%: 1.8 Earlier Data: |
Industrial Production | Jun month SA ∆%: 0.4 Manufacturing Jun SA 0.2 ∆% Jun 12 months SA ∆% 1.2, NSA 1.1 |
Productivity and Costs | Nonfarm Business Productivity IQ2017∆% SAAE 0.0; IQ2017/IQ2016 ∆% 1.2; Unit Labor Costs SAAE IQ2017 ∆% 2.2; IQ2017/IQ2016 ∆%: 1.1 Blog 6/11/17 |
New York Fed Manufacturing Index | General Business Conditions From May -1.0 to Jun 19.8 |
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index | General Index from May 38.8 to Jun 27.6 |
Manufacturing Shipments and Orders | May Orders SA ∆% -0.8 Ex Transport -0.3 Jan-May 17/Jan-May 16 NSA New Orders ∆% 4.8 Ex transport 5.8 Earlier data: |
Durable Goods | May New Orders SA ∆%: -1.1; ex transport ∆%: 0.1 Earlier Data: |
Sales of New Motor Vehicles | Jan-Jun 2017 8,452,134; Jan-Jun 2016 8,636,946. Jun 17 SAAR 16.50 million, May 17 SAAR 16.66 million, Jun 2016 SAAR 16.80 million Blog 7/9/17 |
Sales of Merchant Wholesalers | Jan-May 2017/Jan-May 2016 NSA ∆%: Total 7.9; Durable Goods: 7.3; Nondurable EARLIER DATA: |
Sales and Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers | May 17 12-M NSA ∆%: Sales Total Business 7.2; Manufacturers 6.5 |
Sales for Retail and Food Services | Jan-Jun 2017/Jan-Jun 2016 ∆%: Retail and Food Services 3.9; Retail ∆% 4.0 |
Value of Construction Put in Place | SAAR month SA Mar ∆%: -0.2 Jan-Mar 17/Jan-Mar 16 NSA: 4.9 Earlier Data: |
Case-Shiller Home Prices | Apr 2017/Apr 2016 ∆% NSA: 10 Cities 4.9; 20 Cities: 5.7; National: 5.5 |
FHFA House Price Index Purchases Only | Apr SA ∆% 0.7; |
New House Sales | May 2017 month SAAR ∆%: 2.9 |
Housing Starts and Permits | May Starts month SA ∆% -5.5; Permits ∆%: -4.9 Earlier Data: |
Rate of Homeownership | IQ2017: 63.6 Blog 4/30/17 |
Trade Balance | Balance May SA -$46,507 million versus Apr -$47,585 million |
Export and Import Prices | May 12-month NSA ∆%: Imports 2.1; Exports 1.4 Earlier Data: |
Consumer Credit | May ∆% annual rate: Total 5.8; Revolving 8.7; Nonrevolving 4.7 Earlier Data: |
Net Foreign Purchases of Long-term Treasury Securities | Apr Net Foreign Purchases of Long-term US Securities: $11.2 billion |
Treasury Budget | Fiscal Year 2017/2016 ∆% Jun: Receipts 1.6; Outlays 5.7; Individual Income Taxes 2.4 Deficit Fiscal Year 2012 $1,087 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2013 $680 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2014 $485 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2015 $439 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2016 $587 Blog 7/16/2017 |
CBO Budget and Economic Outlook | 2012 Deficit $1087 B 6.8% GDP Debt $11,281 B 70.4% GDP 2013 Deficit $680 B, 4.1% GDP Debt $11,983 B 72.6% GDP 2014 Deficit $485 B 2.8% GDP Debt $12,780 B 74.2% GDP 2015 Deficit $438 B 2.5% GDP Debt $13,117 B 73.3% GDP 2016 Deficit $587 3.2% GDP Debt $14,168.4 B 77.0% GDP 2027 Deficit $1,408 B, 5.0 % GDP Debt $24,893 B 88.9% GDP 2047: Long-term Debt/GDP 150.0% Blog 8/26/12 11/18/12 2/10/13 9/22/13 2/16/14 8/24/14 9/14/14 3/1/15 6/21/15 1/3/16 4/10/16 7/24/16 1/8/17 4/2/17 |
Commercial Banks Assets and Liabilities | May 2017 SAAR ∆%: Securities 6.3 Loans 5.4 Cash Assets -31.6 Deposits 8.4 Blog 6/25/17 |
Flow of Funds Net Worth of Families and Nonprofits | IQ2017 ∆ since 2007 Assets +$29,049.3 BN Nonfinancial $4,788.5 BN Real estate $3,592.4 BN Financial +24,260.8 BN Net Worth +$28,330.0 BN Blog 6/25/17 |
Current Account Balance of Payments | IVQ2016 -109,150 MM % GDP 2.4 Blog 4/2/17 |
Collapse of United States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation | Blog 6/25/17 |
Squeeze of Economic Activity by Carry Trades | Blog 6/18/17 |
IMF View | World Real Economic Growth 2016 ∆% 3.5 Blog 4/30/17 |
Income, Poverty and Health Insurance in the United States | 43.123 Million Below Poverty in 2015, 13.5% of Population Median Family Income CPI-2015 Adjusted $56,516 in 2015 back to 1999 Levels Uncovered by Health Insurance 28.966 Million in 2015 Blog 9/25/16 |
Monetary Policy and Cyclical Valuation of Risk Financial Assets | Blog 1/15/2017 |
Rules versus Discretionary Authorities in Monetary Policy | Blog 1/1/2017 |
Links to blog comments in Table USA: 7/9/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/rising-yields-twenty-two-million.html
7/2/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/dollar-devaluation-and-rising-yields.html
6/25/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/united-states-commercial-banks-united.htm
6/18/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/fomc-interest-rate-increase-planned.html
6/11/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/flattening-us-treasury-yield-curve.html
6/4/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html
5/28/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html
4/30/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/04/dollar-devaluation-mediocre-cyclical.html
4/2/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/04/mediocre-cyclical-economic-growth-with.html
1/15/17 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/unconventional-monetary-policy-and.html
1/1/17 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/rules-versus-discretionary-authorities.html
12/25/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html
10/16/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/10/imf-view-of-world-economy-and-finance.html
9/25/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/the-economic-outlook-is-inherently.html
7/24/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/unresolved-us-balance-of-payments.html
4/10/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/04/proceeding-cautiously-in-reducing.html
1/17/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/unconventional-monetary-policy-and.html
1/3/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/weakening-equities-and-dollar.html
10/11/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/10/interest-rate-policy-uncertainty-imf.html
6/21/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/fluctuating-financial-asset-valuations.html
5/10/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/quite-high-equity-valuations-and.html
4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html
4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html
4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html
4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html
3/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html
3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html
2/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html
9/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitics-monetary-policy-and.html
8/24/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/monetary-policy-world-inflation-waves.html
2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html
9/22/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html
2/10/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/united-states-unsustainable-fiscal.html
Table VA-1 provides the value of total sales of US business (manufacturers, retailers and merchant wholesalers) and monthly and 12-month percentage changes. Sales of manufacturers increased 0.1 percent in May and changed 0.0 percent in Apr, increasing 6.5 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2017. Sales of retailers decreased 0.1 percent in May and increased 0.4 percent in Apr, increasing 5.8 percent in 12 months. Sales of merchant wholesalers decreased 0.5 percent in May, decreasing 0.3 percent in Apr and increasing 9.2 percent in 12 months. Total business sales decreased 0.2 percent in May and changed 0.0 percent in Apr, increasing 7.2 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2017.
Table VA-1, US, Percentage Changes for Sales of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers
May 17/Apr 17 | Apr 2017 | Apr 17/Mar 17 ∆% SA | May 17/ May 16 | |
Total Business | -0.2 | 1,409,447 | 0.0 | 7.2 |
Manufacturers | 0.1 | 488,349 | 0.0 | 6.5 |
Retailers | -0.1 | 437,918 | 0.4 | 5.8 |
Merchant Wholesalers | -0.5 | 483,180 | -0.3 | 9.2 |
Source: US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/mtis/
Chart VA-1 of the US Census Bureau provides total US sales of manufacturing, retailers and wholesalers seasonally adjusted (SA) in millions of dollars. The series with adjustment evens fluctuations following seasonal patterns. There is sharp recovery from the global recession in a robust trend, which is mixture of price and quantity effects because data are not adjusted for price changes. There is stability in the final segment with subdued prices with data not adjusted for price changes. There is recovery in the recent segment with vacillation.
Chart VA-1, US, Total Business Sales of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, SA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 1992-May 2017
Source: US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/mtis/
Chart VA-2 of the US Census Bureau provides total US sales of manufacturing, retailers and wholesalers not seasonally adjusted (NSA) in millions of dollars. The series without seasonal adjustment shows sharp jagged behavior because of monthly fluctuations following seasonal patterns. There is sharp recovery from the global recession in a robust trend, which is mixture of price and quantity effects because data are not adjusted for price changes. There is stability in the final segment with monthly marginal weakness in data without adjustment for price changes.
Chart VA-2, US, Total Business Sales of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, NSA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 1992-May 2017
Source: US Census Bureau
Businesses added cautiously to inventories to replenish stocks. Retailers’ inventories increased 0.5 percent in May 2017 and decreased 0.2 percent in Apr with growth of 3.1 percent in 12 months, as shown in Table VA-2. Total business increased inventories 0.3 percent in May, decreasing 0.2 percent in Apr and increasing 2.4 percent in 12 months. Inventories sales/ratios of total business continued at a level close to 1.30 under careful management to avoid costs and risks, changing to 1.38 in May 2017. Inventory/sales ratios of manufacturers and retailers are higher than for merchant wholesalers. There is stability in inventory/sales ratios in individual months and relative to a year earlier with increase at the margin.
Inventory Change | May 17 | May 17/ Apr 17 ∆% SA | Apr 17/Mar 17 ∆% SA | Mar 17/Feb 16 ∆% NSA |
Total Business | 1,852,924 | 0.3 | -0.2 | 2.4 |
Manufacturers | 654,356 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 2.2 |
Retailers | 609,585 | 0.5 | -0.2 | 3.1 |
Merchant | 588,983 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 1.9 |
Inventory/ | May 17 | May 2017 SA | Apr 2017 SA | May 2016 SA |
Total Business | 1,852,924 | 1.38 | 1.37 | 1.41 |
Manufacturers | 654,356 | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.41 |
Retailers | 609,585 | 1.48 | 1.47 | 1.49 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 588,983 | 1.29 | 1.28 | 1.34 |
US Census Bureau
Chart VA-3 of the US Census Bureau provides total business inventories of manufacturers, retailers and merchant wholesalers seasonally adjusted (SA) in millions of dollars from Jan 1992 to May 2017. The impact of the two recessions of 2001 and IVQ2007 to IIQ2009 is evident in the form of sharp reductions in inventories. Inventories have surpassed the peak before the global recession. Data are not adjusted for price changes.
Chart VA-3, US, Total Business Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, SA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 1992-May 2017
Source: US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/mtis/
Chart VA-4 provides total business inventories of manufacturers, retailers and merchant wholesalers not seasonally adjusted (NSA) from Jan 1992 to May 2017 in millions of dollars. The recessions of 2001 and IVQ2007 to IIQ2009 are evident in the form of sharp reductions of inventories. There is sharp upward trend of inventory accumulation after both recessions. Total business inventories are higher than in the peak before the global recession.
Chart VA-4, US, Total Business Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, NSA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 1992-May 2017
Source: US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/mtis/
Inventories follow business cycles. When recession hits sales inventories pile up, declining with expansion of the economy. In a fascinating classic opus, Lloyd Meltzer (1941, 129) concludes:
“The dynamic sequences (i) through (6) were intended to show what types of behavior are possible for a system containing a sales output lag. The following conclusions seem to be the most important:
(i) An economy in which business men attempt to recoup inventory losses will always undergo cyclical fluctuations when equilibrium is disturbed, provided the economy is stable.
This is the pure inventory cycle.
(2) The assumption of stability imposes severe limitations upon the possible size of the marginal propensity to consume, particularly if the coefficient of expectation is positive.
(3) The inventory accelerator is a more powerful de-stabilizer than the ordinary acceleration principle. The difference in stability conditions is due to the fact that the former allows for replacement demand whereas the usual analytical formulation of the latter does not. Thus, for inventories, replacement demand acts as a de-stabilizer. Whether it does so for all types of capital goods is a moot question, but I believe cases may occur in which it does not.
(4) Investment for inventory purposes cannot alter the equilibrium of income, which depends only upon the propensity to consume and the amount of non-induced investment.
(5) The apparent instability of a system containing both an accelerator and a coefficient of expectation makes further investigation of possible stabilizers highly desirable.”
Chart VA-5 shows the increase in the inventory/sales ratios during the recession of 2007-2009. The inventory/sales ratio fell during the expansions. The inventory/sales ratio declined to a trough in 2011, climbed and then stabilized at current levels in 2012, 2013 and 2015 with increase into 2015-2016 and then decreasing at the margin from 2016 into 2017.
Chart VA-5, Total Business Inventories/Sales Ratios 2008 to 2017
https://www.census.gov/mtis/img/mtisbrf.gif
Sales of retail and food services decreased 0.2 percent in Jun 2017 after decreasing 0.1 percent in May 2017 seasonally adjusted (SA), growing 3.9 percent in Jan-Jun 2017 relative to Jan-Jun 2016 not seasonally adjusted (NSA), as shown in Table VA-3. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales decreased 0.2 percent in Jun 2017, decreasing 0.3 percent in May 2017 SA and increasing 3.8 percent NSA in Jan-Jun 2017 relative to a year earlier. Sales of motor vehicles and parts increased 0.1 percent in Jun 2017 after increasing 0.9 percent in May 2017 SA and increasing 4.1 percent NSA in Jan-Jun 2017 relative to a year earlier. Gasoline station sales decreased 1.3 percent SA in Jun 2017 after decreasing 3.0 percent in May 2017 in oscillating prices of gasoline that are moderating, increasing 9.9 percent in Jan-Jun 2017 relative to a year earlier.
Table VA-3, US, Percentage Change in Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, ∆%
Jun/May ∆% SA | May/Apr ∆% SA | Jan-Jun 2017 Million Dollars NSA | Jan-Jun 2017 from Jan-Jun 2016 ∆% NSA | |
Retail and Food Services | -0.2 | -0.1 | 2,773,607 | 3.9 |
Excluding Motor Vehicles and Parts | -0.2 | -0.3 | 2,189,546 | 3.8 |
Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers | 0.1 | 0.9 | 584,061 | 4.1 |
Retail | -0.1 | -0.1 | 2,436,613 | 4.0 |
Building Materials | 0.5 | -0.6 | 187,735 | 6.6 |
Food and Beverage | -0.4 | 0.1 | 350,359 | 1.9 |
Grocery | -0.5 | 0.0 | 314,357 | 1.7 |
Health & Personal Care Stores | 0.3 | 0.2 | 163,389 | -0.1 |
Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores | -0.1 | -0.2 | 117,542 | 0.0 |
Gasoline Stations | -1.3 | -3.0 | 219,849 | 9.9 |
General Merchandise Stores | 0.4 | -0.4 | 323,916 | 0.9 |
Food Services & Drinking Places | -0.6 | 0.4 | 336,994 | 2.9 |
Source: US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/retail/
Chart VA-6 provides monthly percentage changes of sales of retail and food services. There is significant monthly volatility that prevents identification of clear trends.
Chart VA-6, US, Monthly Percentage Change of Retail and Food Services Sales, Jan 1992-Jun 2017
Source: US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/retail/
Chart VA-7 of the US Census Bureau provides total sales of retail trade and food services seasonally adjusted (SA) from Jan 1992 to Jun 2017 in millions of dollars. The impact on sales of the shallow recession of 2001 was much milder than the sharp contraction in the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. There is flattening in the final segment of the series followed by another increase/decrease. Data are not adjusted for price changes.
Chart VA-7, US, Total Sales of Retail Trade and Food Services, SA, Jan 1992-Jun 2017, Millions of Dollars
Source: US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/retail/
Chart VA-8, US, Total Sales of Retail Trade and Food Services, NSA, Jan 1992-Jun 2017, Millions of Dollars
Source: US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/retail/
Table VI-7C provides additional information required for understanding the deficit/debt situation of the United States. The table is divided into four parts: Treasury budget in the 2017 fiscal year beginning on Oct 1, 2016 and ending on Sep 30, 2017; federal fiscal data for the years from 2009 to 2016; federal fiscal data for the years from 2005 to 2008; and Treasury debt held by the public from 2005 to 2016. Receipts increased 1.4 percent in the cumulative fiscal year 2017 ending in May 2017 relative to the cumulative in fiscal year 2016. Individual income taxes increased 1.0 percent relative to the same fiscal period a year earlier. Outlays increased 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. There are also receipts, outlays, deficit and debt for fiscal years 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016. In fiscal year 2016, the deficit reached $587 billion or 3.2 percent of GDP. Outlays of 3,854 billion were 20.9 percent of GDP and receipts of $3,267 were 17.8 percent of GDP. It is quite difficult for the US to raise receipts above 18 percent of GDP. Total revenues of the US from 2009 to 2012 accumulate to $9021 billion, or $9.0 trillion, while expenditures or outlays accumulate to $14,115 billion, or $14.1 trillion, with the deficit accumulating to $5094 billion, or $5.1 trillion. Revenues decreased 6.5 percent from $9653 billion in the four years from 2005 to 2008 to $9021 billion in the years from 2009 to 2012. Decreasing revenues were caused by the global recession from IVQ2007 (Dec) to IIQ2009 (Jun) and by growth of only 2.1 percent on average in the cyclical expansion from IIIQ2009 to IQ2017. In contrast, the expansion from IQ1983 to IIIQ1990 was at the average annual growth rate of 4.3 percent and at 7.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/dollar-devaluation-and-rising-yields.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html). Because of mediocre GDP growth, there are 21.9 million unemployed or underemployed in the United States for an effective unemployment/underemployment rate of 13.9 percent (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/rising-yields-twenty-two-million.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html). Weakness of growth and employment creation is analyzed in II Collapse of United States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation (Section II and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/united-states-commercial-banks-united.htm). In contrast with the decline of revenue, outlays or expenditures increased 30.2 percent from $10,839 billion, or $10.8 trillion, in the four years from 2005 to 2008, to $14,115 billion, or $14.1 trillion, in the four years from 2009 to 2012. Increase in expenditures by 30.2 percent while revenue declined by 6.5 percent caused the increase in the federal deficit from $1186 billion in 2005-2008 to $5094 billion in 2009-2012. Federal revenue was 14.9 percent of GDP on average in the years from 2009 to 2012, which is well below 17.4 percent of GDP on average from 1966 to 2016. Federal outlays were 23.3 percent of GDP on average from 2009 to 2012, which is well above 20.2 percent of GDP on average from 1966 to 2016. The lower part of Table VI-7C shows that debt held by the public swelled from $5803 billion in 2008 to $13,117 billion in 2015, by $7314 billion or 126.0 percent. Debt held by the public as percent of GDP or economic activity jumped from 39.3 percent in 2008 to 77.0 percent in 2016, which is well above the average of 39.0 percent from 1966 to 2016. The United States faces tough adjustment because growth is unlikely to recover, creating limits on what can be obtained by increasing revenues, while continuing stress of social programs restricts what can be obtained by reducing expenditures.
Table VI-7C, US, Treasury Budget in Fiscal Year to Date Million Dollars
Jun | Fiscal Year 2017 | Fiscal Year 2016 | ∆% |
Receipts | 2,507,820 | 2,468,827 | 1.6 |
Outlays | 3,030,903 | 2,867,988 | 5.7 |
Deficit | -523,082 | -399,161 | |
Individual Income Tax | 1,199,238 | 1,171,623 | 2.4 |
Corporation Income Tax | 223,261 | 223,388 | -0.1 |
Social Insurance | 648,768 | 616,441 | 5.2 |
Receipts | Outlays | Deficit (-), Surplus (+) | |
$ Billions | |||
Fiscal Year 2016 | 3,267 | 3,854 | -587 |
% GDP | 17.8 | 20.9 | 3.2 |
Fiscal Year 2015 | 3,249 | 3,688 | -439 |
% GDP | 18.2 | 20.6 | 2.4 |
Fiscal Year 2014 | 3,021 | 3,506 | -485 |
% GDP | 17.5 | 20.4 | 2.8 |
Fiscal Year 2013 | 2,775 | 3,455 | -680 |
% GDP | 16.8 | 20.9 | -4.1 |
Fiscal Year 2012 | 2,450 | 3,537 | -1,087 |
% GDP | 15.3 | 22.1 | -6.8 |
Fiscal Year 2011 | 2,303 | 3,603 | -1,300 |
% GDP | 15.0 | 23.4 | -8.5 |
Fiscal Year 2010 | 2,163 | 3,457 | -1,294 |
% GDP | 14.6 | 23.4 | -8.7 |
Fiscal Year 2009 | 2,105 | 3,518 | -1,413 |
% GDP | 14.6 | 24.4 | -9.8 |
Total 2009-2012 | 9,021 | 14,115 | -5,094 |
Average % GDP 2009-2012 | 14.9 | 23.3 | -8.5 |
Fiscal Year 2008 | 2,524 | 2,983 | -459 |
% GDP | 17.1 | 20.2 | -3.1 |
Fiscal Year 2007 | 2,568 | 2,729 | -161 |
% GDP | 17.9 | 19.1 | -1.1 |
Fiscal Year 2006 | 2,407 | 2,655 | -248 |
% GDP | 17.6 | 19.4 | -1.8 |
Fiscal Year 2005 | 2,154 | 2,472 | -318 |
% GDP | 16.7 | 19.2 | -2.5 |
Total 2005-2008 | 9,653 | 10,839 | -1,186 |
Average % GDP 2005-2008 | 17.3 | 19.5 | -2.1 |
Debt Held by the Public | Billions of Dollars | Percent of GDP | |
2005 | 4,592 | 35.6 | |
2006 | 4,829 | 35.3 | |
2007 | 5,035 | 35.2 | |
2008 | 5,803 | 39.3 | |
2009 | 7,545 | 52.3 | |
2010 | 9,019 | 60.9 | |
2011 | 10,128 | 65.9 | |
2012 | 11,281 | 70.4 | |
2013 | 11,983 | 72.6 | |
2014 | 12,780 | 74.2 | |
2015 | 13,117 | 73.3 | |
2016 | 14,168.4 | 77.0 |
Source: http://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/fsreports/rpt/mthTreasStmt/mthTreasStmt_home.htm CBO, The budget and economic outlook: 2017-2027. Washington, DC, Jan 24, 2017 https://www.cbo.gov/publication/52370 CBO, An update to the budget and economic outlook: 2016 to 2026. Washington, DC, Aug 23, 2016.
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget-economic-data#6
CBO (2012NovMBR). CBO (2011AugBEO); Office of Management and Budget 2011. Historical Tables. Budget of the US Government Fiscal Year 2011. Washington, DC: OMB; CBO. 2011JanBEO. Budget and Economic Outlook. Washington, DC, Jan. CBO. 2012AugBEO. Budget and Economic Outlook. Washington, DC, Aug 22. CBO. 2012Jan31. Historical budget data. Washington, DC, Jan 31. CBO. 2012NovCDR. Choices for deficit reduction. Washington, DC. Nov. CBO. 2013HBDFeb5. Historical budget data—February 2013 baseline projections. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Feb 5. CBO. 2013HBDFeb5. Historical budget data—February 2013 baseline projections. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Feb 5. CBO (2013Aug12). 2013AugHBD. Historical budget data—August 2013. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Aug. CBO, Historical Budget Data—February 2014, Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Feb. CBO, Historical budget data—April 2014 release. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Apr. Congressional Budget Office, August 2014 baseline: an update to the budget and economic outlook: 2014 to 2024. Washington, DC, CBO, Aug 27, 2014. CBO, Monthly budget review: summary of fiscal year 2014. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Nov 10, 2014. CBO, The budget and economic outlook: 2015 to 2025. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Jan 26, 2015.
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget-economic-data#6
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget_economic_data#3 https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget_economic_data#2
VB Japan. The GDP of Japan grew at 1.0 percent per year on average from 1991 to 2002, with the GDP implicit deflator falling at 0.8 percent per year on average. The average growth rate of Japan’s GDP was 4 percent per year on average from the middle of the 1970s to 1992 (Ito 2004). Low growth in Japan in the 1990s is commonly labeled as “the lost decade” (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 81-115). Table VB-GDP provides yearly growth rates of Japan’s GDP from 1995 to 2016. Growth weakened from 2.7 per cent in 1995 and 3.1 percent in 1996 to contractions of 1.1 percent in 1998 and 0.3 percent in 1999. Growth rates were below 2 percent with exception of 2.8 percent in 2000 and 2.2 percent in 2004. Japan’s GDP contracted sharply by 1.1 percent in 2008 and 5.4 percent in 2009. As in most advanced economies, growth was robust at 4.2 percent in 2010 but mediocre at minus 0.1 percent in 2011 because of the tsunami and 1.5 percent in 2012. Japan’s GDP grew 2.0 percent in 2013 and nearly stagnated in 2014 at 0.3. The GDP of Japan increased 1.1 percent in 2015 and 1.0 percent in 2016. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). Japan’s real GDP in calendar year 2016 is 3.3 percent higher than in calendar year 2007. Japan’s real GDP grew 10.4 percent from the trough of 2009 to 2016 at the average yearly rate of 1.4 percent (http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html).
Table VB-GDP, Japan, Yearly Percentage Change of GDP ∆%
Calendar Year | ∆% |
1995 | 2.7 |
1996 | 3.1 |
1997 | 1.1 |
1998 | -1.1 |
1999 | -0.3 |
2000 | 2.8 |
2001 | 0.4 |
2002 | 0.1 |
2003 | 1.5 |
2004 | 2.2 |
2005 | 1.7 |
2006 | 1.4 |
2007 | 1.7 |
2008 | -1.1 |
2009 | -5.4 |
2010 | 4.2 |
2011 | -0.1 |
2012 | 1.5 |
2013 | 2.0 |
2014 | 0.3 |
2015 | 1.1 |
2016 | 1.0 |
Source: Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office
http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html
http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
Table VB-BOJF provides the forecasts of economic activity and inflation in Japan by the majority of members of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, which is part of their Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf) with changes on Jul 21, 2015 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k150121a.pdf). For fiscal 2015, the forecast is of growth of GDP between 1.5 to 2.1 percent, with the all items CPI less fresh food 0.2 to 1.2 to 3.3 percent (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf). The critical difference is forecast of the CPI excluding fresh food of 0.2 to 1.2 percent in 2015 and 1.2 to 2.2 percent in 2016 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf). Consumer price inflation in Japan excluding fresh food was minus 0.4 percent in Mar 2014 and 2.2 percent in 12 months (http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1581.htm), significantly because of the increase of the tax on value added of consumption in Apr 2014. The new monetary policy of the Bank of Japan aims to increase inflation to 2 percent. These forecasts are biannual in Apr and Oct. The Cabinet Office, Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan released on Jan 22, 2013, a “Joint Statement of the Government and the Bank of Japan on Overcoming Deflation and Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130122c.pdf) with the important change of increasing the inflation target of monetary policy from 1 percent to 2 percent:
“The Bank of Japan conducts monetary policy based on the principle that the policy shall be aimed at achieving price stability, thereby contributing to the sound development of the national economy, and is responsible for maintaining financial system stability. The Bank aims to achieve price stability on a sustainable basis, given that there are various factors that affect prices in the short run.
The Bank recognizes that the inflation rate consistent with price stability on a sustainable basis will rise as efforts by a wide range of entities toward strengthening competitiveness and growth potential of Japan's economy make progress. Based on this recognition, the Bank sets the price stability target at 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index.
Under the price stability target specified above, the Bank will pursue monetary easing and aim to achieve this target at the earliest possible time. Taking into consideration that it will take considerable time before the effects of monetary policy permeate the economy, the Bank will ascertain whether there is any significant risk to the sustainability of economic growth, including from the accumulation of financial imbalances.”
The Bank of Japan also provided explicit analysis of its view on price stability in a “Background note regarding the Bank’s thinking on price stability” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/data/rel130123a1.pdf http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130123a.htm/). The Bank of Japan also amended “Principal terms and conditions for the Asset Purchase Program” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130122a.pdf): “Asset purchases and loan provision shall be conducted up to the maximum outstanding amounts by the end of 2013. From January 2014, the Bank shall purchase financial assets and provide loans every month, the amount of which shall be determined pursuant to the relevant rules of the Bank.”
Financial markets in Japan and worldwide were shocked by new bold measures of “quantitative and qualitative monetary easing” by the Bank of Japan (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The objective of policy is to “achieve the price stability target of 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) at the earliest possible time, with a time horizon of about two years” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The main elements of the new policy are as follows:
- Monetary Base Control. Most central banks in the world pursue interest rates instead of monetary aggregates, injecting bank reserves to lower interest rates to desired levels. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has shifted back to monetary aggregates, conducting money market operations with the objective of increasing base money, or monetary liabilities of the government, at the annual rate of 60 to 70 trillion yen. The BOJ estimates base money outstanding at “138 trillion yen at end-2012) and plans to increase it to “200 trillion yen at end-2012 and 270 trillion yen at end 2014” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
- Maturity Extension of Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds. Purchases of bonds will be extended even up to bonds with maturity of 40 years with the guideline of extending the average maturity of BOJ bond purchases from three to seven years. The BOJ estimates the current average maturity of Japanese government bonds (JGB) at around seven years. The BOJ plans to purchase about 7.5 trillion yen per month (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130404d.pdf). Takashi Nakamichi, Tatsuo Ito and Phred Dvorak, wiring on “Bank of Japan mounts bid for revival,” on Apr 4, 2013, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323646604578401633067110420.html), find that the limit of maturities of three years on purchases of JGBs was designed to avoid views that the BOJ would finance uncontrolled government deficits.
- Seigniorage. The BOJ is pursuing coordination with the government that will take measures to establish “sustainable fiscal structure with a view to ensuring the credibility of fiscal management” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
- Diversification of Asset Purchases. The BOJ will engage in transactions of exchange traded funds (ETF) and real estate investment trusts (REITS) and not solely on purchases of JGBs. Purchases of ETFs will be at an annual rate of increase of one trillion yen and purchases of REITS at 30 billion yen.
- Bank Lending Facility and Growth Supporting Funding Facility. At the meeting on Feb 18, the Bank of Japan doubled the scale of these lending facilities to prevent their expiration in the near future (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140218a.pdf).
Table VB-BOJF provides the forecasts of economic activity and inflation in Japan by the majority of members of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, which is part of their Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1701b.pdf) with changes on Feb 1, 2017 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1604b.pdf). On Jun 19, 2015, the Bank of Japan announced a “New Framework for Monetary Policy Meetings,” which provides for quarterly release of the forecasts of the economy and prices beginning in Jan 2016 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/rel150619a.pdf). For fiscal 2015, the forecast is of growth of GDP between 0.7 to 0.7 percent, with the all items CPI less fresh food of 0.0 percent (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1604b.pdf). The critical difference is forecast of the CPI excluding fresh food of 0.0 to 0.2 percent in 2016 and 1.8 to 3.0 percent in 2017 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1604b.pdf). Consumer price inflation in Japan excluding fresh food was 0.1 percent in Mar 2016 and minus 0.3 percent in 12 months (http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1581.htm). The CPI increased significantly because of the increase of the tax on value added of consumption in Apr 2014. The new monetary policy of the Bank of Japan aims to increase inflation to 2 percent. These forecasts are biannual in Apr and Oct. The Cabinet Office, Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan released on Jan 22, 2013, a “Joint Statement of the Government and the Bank of Japan on Overcoming Deflation and Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130122c.pdf) with the important change of increasing the inflation target of monetary policy from 1 percent to 2 percent:
“The Bank of Japan conducts monetary policy based on the principle that the policy shall be aimed at achieving price stability, thereby contributing to the sound development of the national economy, and is responsible for maintaining financial system stability. The Bank aims to achieve price stability on a sustainable basis, given that there are various factors that affect prices in the short run.
The Bank recognizes that the inflation rate consistent with price stability on a sustainable basis will rise as efforts by a wide range of entities toward strengthening competitiveness and growth potential of Japan's economy make progress. Based on this recognition, the Bank sets the price stability target at 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index.
Under the price stability target specified above, the Bank will pursue monetary easing and aim to achieve this target at the earliest possible time. Taking into consideration that it will take considerable time before the effects of monetary policy permeate the economy, the Bank will ascertain whether there is any significant risk to the sustainability of economic growth, including from the accumulation of financial imbalances.”
The Bank of Japan also provided explicit analysis of its view on price stability in a “Background note regarding the Bank’s thinking on price stability” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/data/rel130123a1.pdf http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130123a.htm/). The Bank of Japan also amended “Principal terms and conditions for the Asset Purchase Program” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130122a.pdf): “Asset purchases and loan provision shall be conducted up to the maximum outstanding amounts by the end of 2013. From January 2014, the Bank shall purchase financial assets and provide loans every month, the amount of which shall be determined pursuant to the relevant rules of the Bank.”
Financial markets in Japan and worldwide were shocked by new bold measures of “quantitative and qualitative monetary easing” by the Bank of Japan (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The objective of policy is to “achieve the price stability target of 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) at the earliest possible time, with a time horizon of about two years” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The main elements of the new policy are as follows:
- Monetary Base Control. Most central banks in the world pursue interest rates instead of monetary aggregates, injecting bank reserves to lower interest rates to desired levels. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has shifted back to monetary aggregates, conducting money market operations with the objective of increasing base money, or monetary liabilities of the government, at the annual rate of 60 to 70 trillion yen. The BOJ estimates base money outstanding at “138 trillion yen at end-2012) and plans to increase it to “200 trillion yen at end-2012 and 270 trillion yen at end 2014” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
- Maturity Extension of Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds. Purchases of bonds will be extended even up to bonds with maturity of 40 years with the guideline of extending the average maturity of BOJ bond purchases from three to seven years. The BOJ estimates the current average maturity of Japanese government bonds (JGB) at around seven years. The BOJ plans to purchase about 7.5 trillion yen per month (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130404d.pdf). Takashi Nakamichi, Tatsuo Ito and Phred Dvorak, wiring on “Bank of Japan mounts bid for revival,” on Apr 4, 2013, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323646604578401633067110420.html), find that the limit of maturities of three years on purchases of JGBs was designed to avoid views that the BOJ would finance uncontrolled government deficits.
- Seigniorage. The BOJ is pursuing coordination with the government that will take measures to establish “sustainable fiscal structure with a view to ensuring the credibility of fiscal management” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
- Diversification of Asset Purchases. The BOJ will engage in transactions of exchange traded funds (ETF) and real estate investment trusts (REITS) and not solely on purchases of JGBs. Purchases of ETFs will be at an annual rate of increase of one trillion yen and purchases of REITS at 30 billion yen.
- Bank Lending Facility and Growth Supporting Funding Facility. At the meeting on Feb 18, the Bank of Japan doubled the scale of these lending facilities to prevent their expiration in the near future (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140218a.pdf).
- Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Negative Nominal Interest Rate. On January 29, 2016, the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan introduced a new policy to attain the “price stability target of 2 percent at the earliest possible time” (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2016/k160129a.pdf). The new framework consists of three dimensions: quantity, quality and interest rate. The interest rate dimension consists of rates paid to current accounts that financial institutions hold at the Bank of Japan of three tiers zero, positive and minus 0.1 percent. The quantitative dimension consists of increasing the monetary base at the annual rate of 80 trillion yen. The qualitative dimension consists of purchases by the Bank of Japan of Japanese government bonds (JGBs), exchange traded funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITS).
- Quantitative and Qualitative Easing with Yield Curve Control. The Bank of Japan introduced a new approach, QQE with Yield Curve Control (“Quantitative and Qualitative Easing with Yield Curve Control”) at its policy meeting on Sep 21, 2016 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2016/k160921a.pdf). The policy consists of two measures. First “yield curve control” consists of controlling the long-term and short-term interest rates. The bank will fix the interest rates of policy balances held by financial institutions at the BOJ at minus 0.1 percent and will purchase Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) in the amount required to maintain the yield of the 10-year JGB at around zero percent. Second, “the inflation-overshooting commitment” consists of increasing base money to maintain the CPI price stability target above 2 percent.
Table VB-BOJF, Bank of Japan, Forecasts of the Majority of Members of the Policy Board, % Year on Year
Fiscal Year | Real GDP | CPI All Items Less Fresh Food | Excluding Effects of Consumption Tax Hikes |
2013 | |||
Apr 2014 | +2.2 to +2.3 | +0.8 | |
Jan 2014 | +2.5 to +2.9 [+2.7] | +0.7 to +0.9 [+0.7] | |
Oct 2013 | +2.6 to +3.0 [+2.7] | +0.6 to +1.0 [+0.7] | |
Jul 2013 | +2.5 to +3.0 [+2.8] | +0.5 to +0.8 [+0.6] | |
2014 | |||
Apr 2015 | -1.0 to -0.8 [-0.9] | +2.8 | +0.8 |
Jan 2015 | -0.6 to -0.4 [-0.5] | +2.9 to +3.2 [+2.9] | +0.9 to +1.2 [+0.9] |
Oct 2014 | +0.2 to +0.7 [+0.5] | +3.1 to +3.4 [+3.2] | +1.1 to +1.4 [+1.2] |
Jul 2014 | +0.6 to +1.3 [+1.0] | +3.2 to +3.5 [+3.3] | +1.2 to +1.5 [+1.3] |
Apr 2014 | +0.8 to +1.3 | +3.0 to +3.5 | +1.0 to +1.5 |
Jan 2014 | +0.9 to 1.5 [+1.4] | +2.9 to +3.6 [+3.3] | +0.9 to +1.6 [+1.3] |
Oct 2013 | +0.9 to +1.5 [+1.5] | +2.8 to +3.6 [+3.3] | +0.8 to +1.6 [+1.3] |
Jul 2013 | +0.8 to +1.5 [+1.3] | +2.7 to +3.6 [+3.3] | +0.7 to +1.6 [+1.3] |
2015 | |||
Feb 2016 | +0.7 to +0.7 [+0.7] | 0.0 | |
Jan 2016 | +1.0 to +1.3 [+1.1] | 0.0 to 0.2 [+0.1] | |
Oct 2015 | +0.8 to +1.4 [+1.2] | 0.0 to +0.4 [+0.1 | |
Jul 2015 | +1.5 to +1.9 [+1.7] | +0.3 to +1.0 [+0.7] | |
Apr 2015 | +1.5 to +2.1 [+2.0] | +0.2 to 1.2 [+0.8] | +0.2 to 1.2 [+0.8] |
Jan 2015 | +1.8 to +2.3 [+2.1] | +0.4 to +1.3 [+1.0] | +0.4 to +1.3 [+1.0] |
Oct 2014 | +1.2 to +1.7 [+1.5] | +1.8 to 2.6 [+2.4] | +1.1 to +1.9 [+1.7] |
Jul 2014 | +1.2 to +1.6 [+1.5] | +1.9 to +2.8 [+2.6] | +1.2 to +2.1 [+1.9] |
Apr 2014 | +1.2 to +1.5 | +1.9 to +2.8 | +1.2 to +2.1 |
Jan 2014 | +1.2 to +1.8 [+1.5] | +1.7 to +2.9 [+2.6] | +1.0 to +2.2 [+1.9] |
Oct 2013 | +1.3 to +1.8 [+1.5] | +1.6 to +2.9 [+2.6] | +0.9 to +2.2 [+1.9] |
Jul 2013 | +1.3 to +1.9 [+1.5] | +1.6 to +2.9 [+2.6] | +0.9 to +2.2 [+1.9] |
2016 | |||
Apr 2017 | +1.4 to +1.4 [+1.4] | -0.3 | |
Feb 2017 | +1.2 to +1.5 [+1.4] | -0.2 to -0.1 [-0.2] | |
Jul 2016 | +0.8 to +1.0 [+1.0] | 0.0 to +0.3 [0.5] | 0.0 to +0.3 [0.5] |
Apr 2016 | +0.8 to +1.4 [+1.2] | 0.0 to +0.8 [+0.5] | 0.0 to +0.8 [+0.5] |
Jan 2016 | +1.0 to +1.7 [+1.5] | 0.2 to +1.2 [+0.8] | |
Oct 2015 | +1.2 to +1.6 [+1.4] | +0.8 to +1.5 [+1.4] | |
Jul 2015 | +1.5 to 1.7 [+1.5] | +1.2 to +2.1 [+1.9] | |
Apr 2015 | +1.4 to +1.8 [+1.5] | +1.2 to +2.2 [+2.0] | +1.2 to +2.2 [+2.0] |
Jan 2015 | +1.5 to +1.7 [+1.6] | +1.5 to +2.3 [+2.2] | +1.5 to +2.3 [+2.2] |
Oct 2014 | +1.0 to +1.4 [+1.2] | +1.9 to 3.0 [+2.8] | +1.2 to 2.3 [+2.1] |
Jul 2014 | +1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3] | +2.0 to +3.0 [+2.8] | +1.3 to +2.3 [+2.1] |
Apr 2014 | +1.0 to +1.5 | +2.0 to +3.0 | +1.3 to +2.3 |
2017 | |||
Apr 2017 | +1.4 to +1.6 [+1.6] | +0.6 to +1.6 [+1.4] | |
Feb 2017 | +1.3 to +1.6 [+1.5] | +0.8 to +1.6 [+1.5] | |
Jul 2016 | 1.0 to +1.5 | +0.8 to +1.8 | +0.8 to +1.8 |
Apr 2016 | 0.0 to + +0.3 [+0.1] | 1.8 to +3.0 [+2.7] | 0.8 to +2.0 [+1.7 |
Jan 2016 | +0.1 to + 0.5 [+0.3] | +2.0 to +3.1 [+2.8] | + 1.0 to +2.1 [+1.8] |
Oct 2015 | +0.1 to +0.5 [+0.3] | +2.5 to +3.4 [+3.1] | +1.2 to 2.1 [+1.8] |
Jul 2015 | +0.1 to +0.5 [+0.2] | +2.7 to +3.4 [+3.1] | +1.4 to +2.1 [+1.8] |
Apr 2015 | +0.1 to +0.5 [+0.2] | +2.7 to +3.4 [+3.2] | +1.4 to +2.1 [+1.9] |
2018 | |||
Apr 2017 | +1.1 to +1.3 [+1.3] | +0.8 to +1.9 [+1.7] | |
Feb 2017 | +1.0 to +1.2 [+1.1] | +0.9 to +1.9 [+1.7] | |
Jul 2016 | +0.8 to +1.0 | +1.0 to +2.0 | +1.0 to +2.0 |
Apr 2016 | +0.6 to +1.2 [+1.0] | +1.0 to +2.1 [+1.9] | +1.0 to +2.1 [+1.9] |
2019 | |||
Apr 2017 | +0.6 to +0.7 [+0.7] | +1.4 to +2.5 [+2.4] | +0.9 to +2.0 [+1.9] |
Figures in brackets are the median of forecasts of Policy Board members
Source: Policy Board, Bank of Japan
Figures in brackets are the median of forecasts of Policy Board members
Source: Policy Board, Bank of Japan
https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k150121a.pdf
https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140715a.pdf
https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf
https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1510b.pdf
https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1601b.pdf
https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1604b.pdf
https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1607b.pdf
https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1701b.pdf
https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1704b.pdf
The Nikkei Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI Index™ with the Flash Japan
Manufacturing PMI™ decreased from 53.1 in May to 52.0 in Jun and the Flash Japan
Manufacturing Output Index™ decreased from 54.0 in May to 52.1 in Jun
(https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/025d82f44c874bb2b52234c373468bee). New export orders increased. Paul Smith, Senior Economist at IHS
Markit, finds slowing growth conditions
(https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/025d82f44c874bb2b52234c373468bee).The Nikkei Composite Output PMI Index decreased from 53.4 in May to 52.9 in Jun, indicating improving business activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/977cf886de7b42f1a8cf520b83ebc4ce). The Nikkei Business Activity Index of Services increased to 53.3 in Jun from 53.0 in May (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/977cf886de7b42f1a8cf520b83ebc4ce). Paul Smith, Senior Economist at IHS Markit, finds continuing business activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/977cf886de7b42f1a8cf520b83ebc4ce). The Nikkei Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™), seasonally adjusted, decreased from 53.1 in May to 52.4 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/aa26f29bb7904844b0c60f67c24d2bfd). New orders increased while new foreign orders expanded. Paul Smith, Senior Economist at IHS Markit, finds consistent conditions in manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/aa26f29bb7904844b0c60f67c24d2bfd). Table JPY provides the country data table for Japan.
Table JPY, Japan, Economic Indicators
Historical GDP and CPI | 1981-2010 Real GDP Growth and CPI Inflation 1981-2010 |
Corporate Goods Prices | Jun ∆% 0.0 |
Consumer Price Index | May NSA ∆% 0.1; May 12 months NSA ∆% 0.4 |
Real GDP Growth | IQ2017 ∆%: 0.3 on IVQ2016; IQ2017 SAAR 2.2; |
Employment Report | May Unemployed 2.10 million Change in unemployed since last year: -70 thousand |
All Industry Indices | Apr month SA ∆% 2.1 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15 |
Industrial Production | May SA month ∆%: -3.3 Earlier Data: |
Machine Orders | Total May ∆% -3.1 Private ∆%: 1.7 May ∆% Excluding Volatile Orders minus 3.6 Earlier Data: |
Tertiary Index | May month SA ∆% -0.1 Earlier Data: |
Wholesale and Retail Sales | Apr 12 months: Earlier Data: |
Family Income and Expenditure Survey | May 12-month ∆% total nominal consumption 0.4, real –0.1 Earlier Data: Blog 3/29/15 |
Trade Balance | Exports May 12 months ∆%: 14.9 Imports May 12 months ∆% 17.8 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15 |
Links to blog comments in Table JPY: 7/2/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/dollar-devaluation-and-rising-yields.html
6/25/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/united-states-commercial-banks-united.html
6/18/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/fomc-interest-rate-increase-planned.html
6/4/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html
6/11/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/flattening-us-treasury-yield-curve.html
5/28/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html
5/21/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/dollar-devaluation-world-inflation.html
3/12/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/increasing-interest-rates-twenty-four.html
3/5/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html
12/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/rising-values-of-risk-financial-assets.html
11/20/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/interest-rate-increase-could-well.html
9/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/interest-rate-uncertainty-and-valuation.html
8/21/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/interest-rate-policy-uncertainty-and.html
6/12/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/considerable-uncertainty-about-economic.html
5/22/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/most-fomc-participants-judged-that-if.html
3/13/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/monetary-policy-and-fluctuations-of_13.html
12/13/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/liftoff-of-interest-rates-with-volatile_17.html
11/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-liftoff-followed-by.html
9/13/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what_13.html
08/23/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/global-decline-of-values-of-financial.html
6/14/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/volatility-of-financial-asset.html
5/24/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/interest-rate-policy-and-dollar.html
4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html
4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html
3/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html
3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html
2/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html
12/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/global-financial-and-economic-risk.html
11/23/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.htm
9/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitics-monetary-policy-and.html
8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html
6/15/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financialgeopolitical-risks-recovery.html
5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html
3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html
2/23/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html
12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html
11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html
9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html
8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html
VC China. China estimates an index of nonmanufacturing purchasing managers based on a sample of 1200 nonmanufacturing enterprises across the country (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Table CIPMNM provides this index and components. The total index increased from 55.7 in Jan 2011 to 58.0 in Mar 2012, decreasing to 53.9 in Aug 2013. The index decreased from 56.0 in Nov 2013 to 54.6 in Dec 2013, easing to 53.4 in Jan 2014. The index moved to 54.5 in May 2017. The index of new orders increased from 52.2 in Jan 2012 to 54.3 in Dec 2012 but fell to 50.1 in May 2013, barely above the neutral frontier of 50.0. The index of new orders stabilized at 51.0 in Nov-Dec 2013, easing to 50.9 in Jan 2014. The index of new orders moved to 50.9 in May 2017.
Table CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted
Total Index | New Orders | Interm. | Subs Prices | Exp | |
Jun 2017 | 54.9 | 51.4 | 51.2 | 49.3 | 61.1 |
May | 54.5 | 50.9 | 51.1 | 48.8 | 60.2 |
Apr | 54.0 | 50.5 | 51.7 | 50.2 | 59.7 |
Mar | 55.1 | 51.9 | 52.3 | 49.7 | 61.3 |
Feb | 54.2 | 51.2 | 53.7 | 51.4 | 62.4 |
Jan | 54.6 | 51.3 | 55.1 | 51.0 | 58.9 |
Dec 2016 | 54.5 | 52.1 | 56.2 | 51.9 | 59.5 |
Nov | 54.7 | 51.8 | 53.5 | 51.4 | 60.7 |
Oct | 54.0 | 50.9 | 53.7 | 51.5 | 60.6 |
Sep | 53.7 | 51.4 | 51.7 | 50.1 | 61.1 |
Aug | 53.5 | 49.8 | 52.6 | 50.4 | 59.4 |
Jul | 53.9 | 49.9 | 51.4 | 49.5 | 59.5 |
Jun | 53.7 | 50.8 | 51.6 | 50.6 | 58.6 |
May | 53.1 | 49.2 | 51.6 | 49.8 | 57.8 |
Apr | 53.5 | 48.7 | 52.1 | 49.1 | 59.1 |
Mar | 53.8 | 50.8 | 51.4 | 49.5 | 59.0 |
Feb | 52.7 | 48.7 | 50.5 | 48.3 | 59.5 |
Jan | 53.5 | 49.6 | 49.9 | 47.7 | 58.4 |
Dec2015 | 54.4 | 51.7 | 49.0 | 48.2 | 58.3 |
Nov | 53.6 | 50.2 | 49.3 | 47.7 | 60.0 |
Oct | 53.1 | 51.2 | 51.2 | 48.8 | 61.1 |
Sep | 53.4 | 50.2 | 50.8 | 47.9 | 60.0 |
Aug | 53.4 | 49.6 | 49.6 | 47.8 | 59.7 |
Jul | 53.9 | 50.1 | 48.9 | 47.4 | 60.0 |
Jun | 53.8 | 51.3 | 50.6 | 48.7 | 59.7 |
May | 53.2 | 49.5 | 52.8 | 50.4 | 60.1 |
Apr | 53.4 | 49.1 | 50.8 | 48.9 | 60.0 |
Mar | 53.7 | 50.3 | 50.0 | 48.4 | 58.8 |
Feb | 53.9 | 51.2 | 52.5 | 51.2 | 58.7 |
Jan | 53.7 | 50.2 | 47.6 | 46.9 | 59.6 |
Dec 2014 | 54.1 | 50.5 | 50.1 | 47.3 | 59.5 |
Nov | 53.9 | 50.1 | 50.6 | 47.7 | 59.7 |
Oct | 53.8 | 51.0 | 52.0 | 48.8 | 59.9 |
Sep | 54.0 | 49.5 | 49.8 | 47.3 | 60.9 |
Aug | 54.4 | 50.0 | 52.2 | 48.3 | 61.2 |
Jul | 54.2 | 50.7 | 53.4 | 49.5 | 61.5 |
Jun | 55.0 | 50.7 | 56.0 | 50.8 | 60.4 |
May | 55.5 | 52.7 | 54.5 | 49.0 | 60.7 |
Apr | 54.8 | 50.8 | 52.4 | 49.4 | 61.5 |
Mar | 54.5 | 50.8 | 52.8 | 49.5 | 61.5 |
Feb | 55.0 | 51.4 | 52.1 | 49.0 | 59.9 |
Jan | 53.4 | 50.9 | 54.5 | 50.1 | 58.1 |
Dec 2013 | 54.6 | 51.0 | 56.9 | 52.0 | 58.7 |
Nov | 56.0 | 51.0 | 54.8 | 49.5 | 61.3 |
Oct | 56.3 | 51.6 | 56.1 | 51.4 | 60.5 |
Sep | 55.4 | 53.4 | 56.7 | 50.6 | 60.1 |
Aug | 53.9 | 50.9 | 57.1 | 51.2 | 62.9 |
Jul | 54.1 | 50.3 | 58.2 | 52.4 | 63.9 |
Jun | 53.9 | 50.3 | 55.0 | 50.6 | 61.8 |
May | 54.3 | 50.1 | 54.4 | 50.7 | 62.9 |
Apr | 54.5 | 50.9 | 51.1 | 47.6 | 62.5 |
Mar | 55.6 | 52.0 | 55.3 | 50.0 | 62.4 |
Feb | 54.5 | 51.8 | 56.2 | 51.1 | 62.7 |
Jan | 56.2 | 53.7 | 58.2 | 50.9 | 61.4 |
Dec 2012 | 56.1 | 54.3 | 53.8 | 50.0 | 64.6 |
Nov | 55.6 | 53.2 | 52.5 | 48.4 | 64.6 |
Oct | 55.5 | 51.6 | 58.1 | 50.5 | 63.4 |
Sep | 53.7 | 51.8 | 57.5 | 51.3 | 60.9 |
Aug | 56.3 | 52.7 | 57.6 | 51.2 | 63.2 |
Jul | 55.6 | 53.2 | 49.7 | 48.7 | 63.9 |
Jun | 56.7 | 53.7 | 52.1 | 48.6 | 65.5 |
May | 55.2 | 52.5 | 53.6 | 48.5 | 65.4 |
Apr | 56.1 | 52.7 | 57.9 | 50.3 | 66.1 |
Mar | 58.0 | 53.5 | 60.2 | 52.0 | 66.6 |
Feb | 57.3 | 52.7 | 59.0 | 51.2 | 63.8 |
Jan | 55.7 | 52.2 | 58.2 | 51.1 | 65.3 |
Notes: Interm.: Intermediate; Subs: Subscription; Exp: Business Expectations
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Chart CIPMNM provides China’s nonmanufacturing purchasing managers’ index. The index fell from 56.0 in Oct 2013 to 54.9 in Jun 2017.
Chart CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english
Table CIPMMFG provides the index of purchasing managers of manufacturing seasonally adjusted of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The general index (IPM) rose from 50.5 in Jan 2012 to 53.3 in Apr 2012, falling to 49.2 in Aug 2012, rebounding to 50.6 in Dec 2012. The index fell to 50.3 in Jul 2013, barely above the neutral frontier at 50.0, recovering to 51.4 in Nov 2013 but falling to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.5 in Jan 2014, 50.1 in Dec 2014 and 51.2 in May 2017. The index of new orders fell from 54.5 in Apr 2012 to 51.2 in Dec 2012. The index of new orders fell from 52.3 in Nov 2013 to 52.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.9 in Jan 2014 and moved to 50.4 in Dec 2014. The index moved to 52.3 in May 2017.
Table CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted
IPM | PI | NOI | INV | EMP | SDEL | |
2017 | ||||||
Jun | 51.7 | 54.4 | 53.1 | 48.6 | 49.0 | 49.9 |
May | 51.2 | 53.4 | 52.3 | 48.5 | 49.4 | 50.2 |
Apr | 51.2 | 53.8 | 52.3 | 48.3 | 49.2 | 50.5 |
Mar | 51.8 | 54.2 | 53.3 | 48.3 | 50.0 | 50.3 |
Feb | 51.6 | 53.7 | 53.0 | 48.6 | 49.7 | 50.5 |
Jan | 51.3 | 53.1 | 52.8 | 48.0 | 49.2 | 49.8 |
2016 | ||||||
Dec | 51.4 | 53.3 | 53.2 | 48.0 | 48.9 | 50.0 |
Nov | 51.7 | 53.9 | 53.2 | 48.4 | 49.2 | 49.7 |
Oct | 51.2 | 53.3 | 52.8 | 48.1 | 48.8 | 50.2 |
Sep | 50.4 | 52.8 | 50.9 | 47.4 | 48.6 | 49.9 |
Aug | 50.4 | 52.6 | 51.3 | 47.6 | 48.4 | 50.6 |
Jul | 49.9 | 52.1 | 50.4 | 47.3 | 48.2 | 50.5 |
Jun | 50.0 | 52.5 | 50.5 | 47.0 | 47.9 | 50.7 |
May | 50.1 | 52.3 | 50.7 | 47.6 | 48.2 | 50.4 |
Apr | 50.1 | 52.2 | 51.0 | 47.4 | 47.8 | 50.1 |
Mar | 50.2 | 52.3 | 51.4 | 48.2 | 48.1 | 51.3 |
Feb | 49.0 | 50.2 | 48.6 | 48.0 | 47.6 | 49.8 |
Jan | 49.4 | 51.4 | 49.5 | 46.8 | 47.8 | 50.5 |
2015 | ||||||
Dec | 49.7 | 52.2 | 50.2 | 47.6 | 47.4 | 50.7 |
Nov | 49.6 | 51.9 | 49.8 | 47.1 | 47.6 | 50.6 |
Oct | 49.8 | 52.2 | 50.3 | 47.2 | 47.8 | 50.6 |
Sep | 49.8 | 52.3 | 50.2 | 47.5 | 47.9 | 50.8 |
Aug | 49.7 | 51.7 | 49.7 | 48.3 | 47.9 | 50.6 |
Jul | 50.0 | 52.4 | 49.9 | 48.4 | 48.0 | 50.4 |
Jun | 50.2 | 52.9 | 50.1 | 48.7 | 48.1 | 50.3 |
May | 50.2 | 52.9 | 50.6 | 48.2 | 48.2 | 50.9 |
Apr | 50.1 | 52.6 | 50.2 | 48.2 | 48.0 | 50.4 |
Mar | 50.1 | 52.1 | 50.2 | 48.0 | 48.4 | 50.1 |
Feb | 49.9 | 51.4 | 50.4 | 48.2 | 47.8 | 49.9 |
Jan | 49.8 | 51.7 | 50.2 | 47.3 | 47.9 | 50.2 |
2014 | ||||||
Dec | 50.1 | 52.2 | 50.4 | 47.5 | 48.1 | 49.9 |
Nov | 50.3 | 52.5 | 50.9 | 47.7 | 48.2 | 50.3 |
Oct | 50.8 | 53.1 | 51.6 | 48.4 | 48.4 | 50.1 |
Sep | 51.1 | 53.6 | 52.2 | 48.8 | 48.2 | 50.1 |
Aug | 51.1 | 53.2 | 52.5 | 48.6 | 48.2 | 50.0 |
Jul | 51.7 | 54.2 | 53.6 | 49.0 | 48.3 | 50.2 |
Jun | 51.0 | 53.0 | 52.8 | 48.0 | 48.6 | 50.5 |
May | 50.8 | 52.8 | 52.3 | 48.0 | 48.2 | 50.3 |
Apr | 50.4 | 52.5 | 51.2 | 48.1 | 48.3 | 50.1 |
Mar | 50.3 | 52.7 | 50.6 | 47.8 | 48.3 | 49.8 |
Feb | 50.2 | 52.6 | 50.5 | 47.4 | 48.0 | 49.9 |
Jan | 50.5 | 53.0 | 50.9 | 47.8 | 48.2 | 49.8 |
Dec 2013 | 51.0 | 53.9 | 52.0 | 47.6 | 48.7 | 50.5 |
Nov | 51.4 | 54.5 | 52.3 | 47.8 | 49.6 | 50.6 |
Oct | 51.4 | 54.4 | 52.5 | 48.6 | 49.2 | 50.8 |
Sep | 51.1 | 52.9 | 52.8 | 48.5 | 49.1 | 50.8 |
Aug | 51.0 | 52.6 | 52.4 | 48.0 | 49.3 | 50.4 |
Jul | 50.3 | 52.4 | 50.6 | 47.6 | 49.1 | 50.1 |
Jun | 50.1 | 52.0 | 50.4 | 47.4 | 48.7 | 50.3 |
May | 50.8 | 53.3 | 51.8 | 47.6 | 48.8 | 50.8 |
Apr | 50.6 | 52.6 | 51.7 | 47.5 | 49.0 | 50.8 |
Mar | 50.9 | 52.7 | 52.3 | 47.5 | 49.8 | 51.1 |
Feb | 50.1 | 51.2 | 50.1 | 49.5 | 47.6 | 48.3 |
Jan | 50.4 | 51.3 | 51.6 | 50.1 | 47.8 | 50.0 |
Dec 2012 | 50.6 | 52.0 | 51.2 | 47.3 | 49.0 | 48.8 |
Nov | 50.6 | 52.5 | 51.2 | 47.9 | 48.7 | 49.9 |
Oct | 50.2 | 52.1 | 50.4 | 47.3 | 49.2 | 50.1 |
Sep | 49.8 | 51.3 | 49.8 | 47.0 | 48.9 | 49.5 |
Aug | 49.2 | 50.9 | 48.7 | 45.1 | 49.1 | 50.0 |
Jul | 50.1 | 51.8 | 49.0 | 48.5 | 49.5 | 49.0 |
Jun | 50.2 | 52.0 | 49.2 | 48.2 | 49.7 | 49.1 |
May | 50.4 | 52.9 | 49.8 | 45.1 | 50.5 | 49.0 |
Apr | 53.3 | 57.2 | 54.5 | 48.5 | 51.0 | 49.6 |
Mar | 53.1 | 55.2 | 55.1 | 49.5 | 51.0 | 48.9 |
Feb | 51.0 | 53.8 | 51.0 | 48.8 | 49.5 | 50.3 |
Jan | 50.5 | 53.6 | 50.4 | 49.7 | 47.1 | 49.7 |
IPM: Index of Purchasing Managers; PI: Production Index; NOI: New Orders Index; EMP: Employed Person Index; SDEL: Supplier Delivery Time Index
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
China estimates the manufacturing index of purchasing managers on the basis of a sample of 820 enterprises (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Chart CIPMMFG provides the manufacturing index of purchasing managers. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013. The index decreased from 51.4 in Nov 2013 to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index moved to 51.7 in Jun 2017.
Chart CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Growth of China’s GDP in IQ2017 relative to the same period in 2017 was 6.9 percent and cumulative growth to IQ2017 was 6.9 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDP. Secondary industry accounts for 38.7 percent of cumulative GDP in IQ2017. In cumulative IVQ2017, industry accounts for 34.3 percent of GDP and construction for 4.6 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 56.5 percent of cumulative GDP in IQ2017 and primary industry for 4.8 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is shifting to lower growth rates with improvement in living standards by increasing growth of services. The bottom block of Table VC-1 provides quarter-on-quarter growth rates of GDP and their annual equivalent. China’s GDP growth decelerated significantly from annual equivalent 10.0 percent in IQ2011 to 6.1 percent in IVQ2011 and 7.4 percent in IQ2012, rebounding to 8.7 percent in IIQ2012, 7.8 percent in IIIQ2012 and 8.2 percent in IVQ2012. Annual equivalent growth in IQ2013 eased to 7.4 percent and to 7.0 percent in IIQ2013, rebounding to 9.1 percent in IIIQ2013. Annual equivalent growth was 7.0 percent in IVQ2013, decreasing to 6.1 percent in IQ2014 and increasing to 7.4 percent in IIQ2014. Annual equivalent growth stabilized at 7.4 percent in IIIQ2014 and 7.8 percent in IVQ2014. Growth increased to annual equivalent 8.2 percent in IQ2015, decreasing to 7.0 percent in IIQ2015 and 7.4 percent in IIIQ2015. Growth slowed to 6.1 percent in annual equivalent in IVQ2015 and 5.3 percent in IQ2016. Growth increased to annual equivalent 7.8 percent in IIQ2016 and 7.4 percent in IIIQ2016, decreasing to 7.0 percent in IVQ2016. Growth decelerated to annual equivalent 5.3 percent in IQ2017.
Table VC-GDP China, Quarterly Growth of GDP, Current CNY 100 Million and Inflation Adjusted ∆%
Cumulative GDP IQ2017 | Value Current CNY Billion IQ2017 | Value Current CNY Billion IQ2017 to IQ2017 | IQ2017 Year-on-Year Constant Prices ∆% | Cumulative to IQ2017 ∆% |
GDP | 18,068.3 | 18,068.3 | 6.9 | 6.9 |
Primary Industry | 865.4 | 865.4 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
Farming | 904.1 | 904.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
Secondary Industry | 7,000.5 | 7,000.5 | 6.4 | 6.4 |
Industry | 6,191.9 | 6,191.9 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
Construction | 836.1 | 836.1 | 5.3 | 5.3 |
Tertiary Industry | 10,202.4 | 10,202.4 | 7.7 | 7.7 |
Transport, Storage, Post | 810.5 | 810.5 | 8.7 | 8.7 |
Wholesale, Retail Trades | 1,779.7 | 1,779.7 | 7.4 | 7.4 |
Accommodation and Restaurants | 340.9 | 340.9 | 7.4 | 7.4 |
Finance | 1,721.4 | 1,721.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
Real Estate | 1,239.3 | 1,239.3 | 7.8 | 7.8 |
Other | 3,036.0 | 3,036.0 | 6.9 | 6.9 |
Growth in Quarter Relative to Prior Quarter | ∆% on Prior Quarter | ∆% Annual Equivalent | ∆% Year-on-Year | |
2017 | ||||
IQ2017 | 1.3 | 5.3 | 6.9 | |
2016 | ||||
IVQ2016 | 1.7 | 7.0 | 6.8 | |
IIIQ2016 | 1.8 | 7.4 | 6.7 | |
IIQ2016 | 1.9 | 7.8 | 6.7 | |
IQ2016 | 1.3 | 5.3 | 6.7 | |
2015 | ||||
IVQ2015 | 1.5 | 6.1 | 6.8 | |
IIIQ2015 | 1.8 | 7.4 | 6.9 | |
IIQ2015 | 1.7 | 7.0 | 7.0 | |
IQ2015 | 2.0 | 8.2 | 7.0 | |
2014 | ||||
IVQ2014 | 1.9 | 7.8 | 7.2 | |
IIIQ2014 | 1.8 | 7.4 | 7.1 | |
IIQ2014 | 1.8 | 7.4 | 7.5 | |
IQ2014 | 1.5 | 6.1 | 7.4 | |
2013 | ||||
IVQ2013 | 1.7 | 7.0 | 7.7 | |
IIIQ2013 | 2.2 | 9.1 | 7.9 | |
IIQ2013 | 1.7 | 7.0 | 7.6 | |
IQ2013 | 1.8 | 7.4 | 7.9 | |
2012 | ||||
IVQ2012 | 2.0 | 8.2 | 8.1 | |
IIIQ2012 | 1.9 | 7.8 | 7.5 | |
IIQ2012 | 2.1 | 8.7 | 7.6 | |
IQ2012 | 1.8 | 7.4 | 8.1 | |
2011 | ||||
IVQ2011 | 1.5 | 6.1 | 8.8 | |
IIIQ2011 | 1.9 | 7.8 | 9.4 | |
IIQ2011 | 2.4 | 10.0 | 10.0 | |
IQ2011 | 2.4 | 10.0 | 10.2 |
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Growth of China’s GDP in IQ2017 relative to the same period in 2017 was 6.9 percent and cumulative growth to IQ2017 was 6.9 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDP. Secondary industry accounts for 38.7 percent of cumulative GDP in IQ2017. In cumulative IVQ2017, industry accounts for 34.3 percent of GDP and construction for 4.6 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 56.5 percent of cumulative GDP in IQ2017 and primary industry for 4.8 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is shifting to lower growth rates with improvement in living standards by increasing growth of services. Table VC-GDPA shows that growth decelerated from 12.1 percent in IQ2010 and 11.2 percent in IIQ2010 to 7.9 percent in IQ2013, 7.6 percent in IIQ2013 and 7.9 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP grew 7.7 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 1.7 percent relative to IIIQ2013, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent per year. GDP grew 7.4 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.5 percent in IQ2014 that is equivalent to 6.1 percent per year. GDP grew 7.5 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is annual equivalent 7.4 percent. In IIIQ2014, GDP grew 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is 7.4 percent in annual equivalent. GDP grew 1.9 percent in IVQ2014, which is 7.8 percent in annual equivalent and 7.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2015, GDP grew 2.0 percent, which is equivalent to 8.2 in a year and 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 1.7 percent in IIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent in a year, and grew 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.8 percent in IIIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.4 percent in a year, and grew 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.5 percent in IVQ2015, which is equivalent to 6.1 percent in a year and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, GDP grew at 1.3 percent, which is equivalent to 5.3 percent in a year, and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.9 percent in IIQ2016, which is annual equivalent to 7.8 percent, and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, GDP grew at 1.8 percent, which is equivalent to 7.4 percent in a year and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, GDP grew at 1.7 percent, equivalent to 7.0 percent in a year and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 6.9 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased at 1.2 percent, which is 5.3 percent in annual equivalent.
Table VC-GDPA China, Growth Rate of GDP, ∆% Relative to a Year Earlier and ∆% Relative to Prior Quarter
IVQ2016 | IQ2017 | |
GDP | 6.8 | 6.9 |
Primary Industry | 2.9 | 3.0 |
Secondary Industry | 6.1 | 6.4 |
Tertiary Industry | 8.3 | 7.7 |
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter | 1.7 | 1.3 |
IQ2015 | IIQQ2015 | IIIQ2015 | IVQ2015 | IQ2016 | IIQ2016 | IIIQ2016 | IVQ2016 | |
GDP | 7.0 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.8 |
Primary Industry | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.9 |
Secondary Industry | 6.4 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 6.1 |
Tertiary Industry | 7.9 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 8.3 |
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
IQ 2013 | IIQ 2013 | IIIQ 2013 | IVQ 2013 | IQ 2014 | IIQ 2014 | IIIQ 2014 | IVQ 2014 | |
GDP | 7.9 | 7.6 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 7.2 |
Primary Industry | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.1 |
Secondary Industry | 7.8 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.3 |
Tertiary Industry | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 8.1 |
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
IQ 2011 | IIQ 2011 | IIIQ 2011 | IVQ 2011 | IQ 2012 | IIQ 2012 | IIIQ 2012 | IVQ 2012 | |
GDP | 10.2 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 8.8 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 8.1 |
Primary Industry | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.5 |
Secondary Industry | 11.1 | 11.0 | 10.8 | 10.6 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 8.1 |
Tertiary Industry | 9.1 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 8.1 |
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
IQ 2010 | IIQ 2010 | IIIQ 2010 | IVQ 2010 | |||||
GDP | 12.1 | 11.2 | 10.7 | 12.1 | ||||
Primary Industry | 3.8 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 3.8 | ||||
Secondary Industry | 14.5 | 13.3 | 12.6 | 14.5 | ||||
Tertiary Industry | 10.5 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 10.5 |
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Growth of China’s GDP in IVQ2016 relative to the same period in 2016 was 6.8 percent and
Chart VC-GDP of the National Bureau of Statistics of China provides annual value and growth rates of GDP. China’s GDP growth in 2016 is still high at 6.7 percent but at the lowest rhythm in five years.
Chart VC-GDP, China, Gross Domestic Product, Million Yuan and ∆%
Source: National bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Chart VC-FXR provides China’s foreign exchange reserves. FX reserves grew from $2399.2 billion in 2009 to $38430 billion in 2013 driven by high growth of China’s trade surplus, decreasing to $30105 billion in 2016.
Chart VC-FXR, China, Foreign Exchange Reserves, 2012-2016
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english
Chart VC-Trade provides China’s imports and exports. Exports exceeded imports with resulting large trade balance surpluses that increased foreign exchange reserves.
Chart VC-Trade, China, Imports and Exports of Goods, 2012-2016, $100 Million US Dollars
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english
Chart VC-PCDI provides the level and growth rates of per capita disposable income in China.
Chart VC-PCDI, China, Level and Growth Rates of Per Capita Disposable Income
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english
The Caixin Flash China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) compiled by Markit (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/883014a121534f51bc42e5060845f727) is mixed. The overall Flash Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI™ decreased from 47.3 in Aug to 47.0 in Sep, while the Flash Caixin China General Manufacturing Output Index decreased from 46.4 in Aug to 45.7 in Aug, indicating weaker conditions. He Fan, Chief Economist at Caixin Insight Group finds need of fiscal and monetary policy (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/883014a121534f51bc42e5060845f727). The Caixin China General Services PMI™, compiled by Markit, shows the Caixin Composite Output, combining manufacturing and services, decreased from 51.5 in May to 51.1 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/686ec6a886004bb69e429063b1cdb4f9). Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at CEBM Group, finds slowing services (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/686ec6a886004bb69e429063b1cdb4f9). The Caixin General Manufacturing PMI™ increased to 50.4 in Jun from 49.6 in May, indicating improving growth conditions in manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/45fb23cff2544f01b00f3303daf1a697). Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at CEBM Group, finds weaker conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/45fb23cff2544f01b00f3303daf1a697). Table CNY provides the country data table for China.
Table CNY, China, Economic Indicators
Price Indexes for Industry | Jun 12-month ∆%: 5.5 Jun month ∆%: -0.2 |
Consumer Price Index | Jun 12-month ∆%: 1.5 Jun month ∆%: -0.2 |
Value Added of Industry | May month ∆%: 0.51 Jan-May 2017/Jan-May 2016 ∆%: 6.7 Earlier Data |
GDP Growth Rate | Year IQ2017 ∆%: 6.9 I Quarter 2017 ∆%: 1.3 |
Investment in Fixed Assets | Total Jan-May 2017 ∆%: 8.6 Real estate development: 8.8 Earlier Data: |
Retail Sales | May month ∆%: 0.86 Earlier Data: |
Trade Balance | Jun balance $42.77 billion 2016 Exports ∆% 11.3 2016 Imports ∆% 17.3 Cumulative May 2017: $188.2 billion Cumulative May 2016: $239.1 Earlier Data: |
Links to blog comments in Table CNY: 6/18/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/fomc-interest-rate-increase-planned.html
23/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/04/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html
4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html
VD Euro Area. Using calendar and seasonally adjusted data (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of the euro area (19 countries) fell 5.7 percent from IQ2008 to IIQ2009. The GDP of the euro area (19 countries) increased 8.6 percent from IIIQ2009 to IVQ2016 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.1 percent. The GDP of the euro area (19 countries) is higher by 2.4 percent in IVQ2016 relative to the pre-recession peak in IQ2008, growing at annual equivalent rate of 0.3 percent. The GDP of the euro area (18) countries increased at the average yearly rate of 2.3 percent from IQ1999 to IQ2008 while that of the euro area (19 countries) increased at 2.3 percent. Table VD-EUR provides yearly growth rates of the combined GDP of the members of the European Monetary Union (EMU) or euro area since 1999. Growth was very strong at 3.2 percent in 2006 and 3.0 percent in 2007. The global recession had strong impact with growth of only 0.4 percent in 2008 and decline of 4.5 percent in 2009. Recovery was at lower growth rates of 2.1 percent in 2010 and 1.5 percent in 2011. EUROSTAT estimates growth of GDP of the euro area of minus 0.9 percent in 2012 and minus 0.3 percent in 2013. Euro Area GDP grew 1.2 percent in 2014 and grew 2.0 percent in 2015. The GDP of the euro area grew 1.7 percent in 2016.
Table VD-EUR, Euro Area, Yearly Percentage Change of Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, Unemployment and GDP ∆%
Year | HICP ∆% | Unemployment | GDP ∆% |
1999 | 1.2 | 9.7 | 3.0 |
2000 | 2.2 | 8.9 | 3.8 |
2001 | 2.4 | 8.3 | 2.1 |
2002 | 2.3 | 8.6 | 1.0 |
2003 | 2.1 | 9.1 | 0.7 |
2004 | 2.2 | 9.3 | 2.3 |
2005 | 2.2 | 9.1 | 1.7 |
2006 | 2.2 | 8.4 | 3.2 |
2007 | 2.2 | 7.5 | 3.0 |
2008 | 3.3 | 7.6 | 0.4 |
2009 | 0.3 | 9.6 | -4.5 |
2010 | 1.6 | 10.2 | 2.1 |
2011 | 2.7 | 10.2 | 1.5 |
2012 | 2.5 | 11.4 | -0.9 |
2013 | 1.3 | 12.0 | -0.3 |
2014 | 0.4 | 11.6 | 1.2 |
2015 | 0.0 | 10.9 | 2.0 |
2016 | 0.2 | 10.0 | 1.7 |
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database
The GDP of the euro area in 2015 in current US dollars in the dataset of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is $11,990.9 billion or 16.3 percent of world GDP of $73,598.8 billion (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/02/weodata/index.aspx). The sum of the GDP of France $2420.2 billion with the GDP of Germany of $3365.3 billion, Italy of $1815.8 billion and Spain $1199.7 billion is $8,801.0 billion or 73.4 percent of total euro area GDP and 13.1 percent of World GDP. The four largest economies account for slightly more than three quarters of economic activity of the euro area. Table VD-EUR1 is constructed with the dataset of EUROSTAT, providing growth rates of the euro area as a whole and of the largest four economies of Germany, France, Italy and Spain annually from 1996 to 2016. The impact of the global recession on the overall euro area economy and on the four largest economies was quite strong. There was sharp contraction in 2009 and growth rates have not rebounded to earlier growth with exception of Germany in 2010 and 2011.
Table VD-EUR1, Euro Area, Real GDP Growth Rate, ∆%
Euro Area | Germany | France | Italy | Spain | |
2016 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 3.2 |
2015 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 3.2 |
2014 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 1.4 |
2013 | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | -1.7 | -1.7 |
2012 | -0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | -2.8 | -2.9 |
2011 | 1.5 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | -1.0 |
2010 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.0 |
2009 | -4.5 | -5.6 | -2.9 | -5.5 | -3.6 |
2008 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | -1.1 | 1.1 |
2007 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 3.8 |
2006 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 4.2 |
2005 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 3.7 |
2004 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 3.2 |
2003 | 0.7 | -0.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 3.2 |
2002 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 2.9 |
2001 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 4.0 |
2000 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 5.3 |
1999 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 4.5 |
1998 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 4.3 |
Average 1999-2016 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 1.7 |
Average 1999-2007 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 3.8 |
Average 2016-2007 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | -7.0* | -0.5* |
1997 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 3.7 |
1996 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 2.7 |
Note: Absolute percentage change
Source: EUROSTAT
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database
The Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index of the HIS Markit Flash Eurozone PMI®, combining activity in manufacturing and services, decreased from 56.8 in May to 55.7 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/70150493d0d742b9854f0e43f3c9f606). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds that the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI index suggests GDP growth about 0.7 percent in IIQ2017 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/70150493d0d742b9854f0e43f3c9f606). The IHS Markit Eurozone PMI® Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing activity with close association with GDP decreased from 56.8 in May to 56.3 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c8ecb5c434b442ae9589cb69b4f4672d). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds potential for growth of about 0.7 percent in IIQ2017 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c8ecb5c434b442ae9589cb69b4f4672d). The IHS Markit Eurozone Services Business Activity Index decreased from 56.3 in May to 55.4 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c8ecb5c434b442ae9589cb69b4f4672d). The IHS Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI® increased from 57.0 in May to 57.4 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/54e768dbc5ca4aa3a1a1ae052112f560). New export orders increased. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds stronger industrial growth (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/54e768dbc5ca4aa3a1a1ae052112f560). Table EUR provides the data table for the euro area.
Table EUR, Euro Area Economic Indicators
GDP | IQ2017 ∆% 0.6; IQ2017/IQ2016 ∆% 1.9 Blog 9/13/15 11/22/15 12/13/15 2/14/16 3/13/16 5/1/16 5/15/16 6/12/16 8/7/16 8/14/16 9/11/16 11/20/16 12/11/16 02/26/17 3/12/17 5/21/17 6/11/17 |
Unemployment | May 2017: 9.3 % unemployment rate; May 2017: 15.011 million unemployed Blog 7/9/17 |
HICP | Apr month ∆%: -0.1 12 months Apr ∆%: 1.4 |
Producer Prices | Euro Zone industrial producer prices May ∆%: -0.4 |
Industrial Production | May Month ∆%: 1.3; 12 months ∆%: 4.0 Earlier Data: |
Retail Sales | May month ∆%: 0.4 Earlier Data: |
Confidence and Economic Sentiment Indicator | Sentiment 111.1 Jun 2017 Consumer minus -1.3 Jun 2017 Earlier Data: Blog 4/5/15 |
Trade | Jan-May 2017/Jan-May 2016 Exports ∆%: 8.6 May 2017 12-month Exports ∆% 13.0 Imports ∆% 16.4 Earlier Data: |
Links to blog comments in Table EUR: 7/9/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/rising-yields-twenty-two-million.html
6/25/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/united-states-commercial-banks-united.html
6/18/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/fomc-interest-rate-increase-planned.html
6/11/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/flattening-us-treasury-yield-curve.html
6/4/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html
5/21/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/dollar-devaluation-world-inflation.html
3/12/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/increasing-interest-rates-twenty-four.html
2/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html
12/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/rising-values-of-risk-financial-assets.html
11/20/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/interest-rate-increase-could-well.html
11/13/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/dollar-revaluation-and-valuations-of.html
11/6/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/the-case-for-increase-in-federal-funds.html
9/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/interest-rate-uncertainty-and-valuation.html
8/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html
8/7/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/global-competitive-easing-or.html
6/12/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/considerable-uncertainty-about-economic.html
5/15/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html
5/1/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/economic-activity-appears-to-have.html
3/13/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/monetary-policy-and-fluctuations-of_13.html
3/6/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/twenty-five-million-unemployed-or.html
2/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/subdued-foreign-growth-and-dollar.html
12/13/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/liftoff-of-interest-rates-with-volatile_17.html
4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html
4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html
3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html
VE Germany. Table VE-DE provides yearly growth rates of the German economy from 1971 to 2016, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked. Germany’s GDP fell 5.6 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.1 percent in 2008. Recovery has been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.1 percent in 2010, 3.7 percent in 2011 and 0.5 percent in 2012. Growth stabilized to 0.5 percent in 2013, increasing to 1.6 percent in 2014. The German economy grew at 1.7 percent in 2015 and grew at 1.9 percent in 2016.
The Federal Statistical Agency of Germany analyzes the fall and recovery of the German economy (http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Content/Statistics/VolkswirtschaftlicheGesamtrechnungen/Inlandsprodukt/Aktuell,templateId=renderPrint.psml):
“The German economy again grew strongly in 2011. The price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.0% compared with the previous year. Accordingly, the catching-up process of the German economy continued during the second year after the economic crisis. In the course of 2011, the price-adjusted GDP again exceeded its pre-crisis level. The economic recovery occurred mainly in the first half of 2011. In 2009, Germany experienced the most serious post-war recession, when GDP suffered a historic decline of 5.1%. The year 2010 was characterised by a rapid economic recovery (+3.7%).”
Table VE-DE, Germany, GDP ∆% on Prior Year
Price Adjusted Chain-Linked | Price- and Calendar-Adjusted Chain Linked | |
Average ∆% 1991-2016 | 1.3 | |
Average ∆% 1991-1999 | 1.5 | |
Average ∆% 2000-2007 | 1.4 | |
Average ∆% 2003-2007 | 2.2 | |
Average ∆% 2007-2016 | 1.0 | |
Average ∆% 2009-2016 | 2.0 | |
2016 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
2015 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
2014 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
2013 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
2012 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
2011 | 3.7 | 3.7 |
2010 | 4.1 | 3.9 |
2009 | -5.6 | -5.6 |
2008 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
2007 | 3.3 | 3.4 |
2006 | 3.7 | 3.9 |
2005 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
2004 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
2003 | -0.7 | -0.7 |
2002 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
2001 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
2000 | 3.0 | 3.2 |
1999 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
1998 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
1997 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
1996 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
1995 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
1994 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
1993 | -1.0 | -1.0 |
1992 | 1.9 | 1.5 |
1991 | 5.1 | 5.2 |
1990 | 5.3 | 5.5 |
1989 | 3.9 | 4.0 |
1988 | 3.7 | 3.4 |
1987 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
1986 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
1985 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
1984 | 2.8 | 2.9 |
1983 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
1982 | -0.4 | -0.5 |
1981 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
1980 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
1979 | 4.2 | 4.3 |
1978 | 3.0 | 3.1 |
1977 | 3.3 | 3.5 |
1976 | 4.9 | 4.5 |
1975 | -0.9 | -0.9 |
1974 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
1973 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
1972 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
1971 | 3.1 | 3.0 |
1970 | NA | NA |
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/02/PE14_048_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/08/PE13_278_811.html https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/11/PE13_381_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/01/PE14_016_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/05/PE14_167_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/09/PE14_306_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/11/PE14_401_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_048_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_61_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/05/PE15_173_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/05/PE15_187_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/08/PE15_293_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/08/PE15_305_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/11/PE15_419_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/11/PE15_430_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/02/PE16_056_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/02/PE16_044_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/05/PE16_162_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/05/PE16_171_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/08/PE16_279_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/08/PE16_291_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/11/PE16_403_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/11/PE16_413_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/02/PE17_050_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/02/PE17_062_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/05/PE17_155_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/05/PE17_169_811.html
The Flash Germany Composite Output Index of the IHS Markit Flash Germany PMI®, combining manufacturing and services, decreased from 57.4 in May to 56.1 in Jun. The index of manufacturing output reached 60.5 in Jun, decreasing from 61.1 in May, while the index of services decreased to 53.7 in Jun from 55.4 in May. The overall Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI® increased from 59.5 in May to 59.3 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f98170ae0f3d4f6d95c528346d78d582). New orders and new export orders in manufacturing increased. Trevor Balchin, Senior Economist at IHS Markit, finds fast growth of the private sector of Germany (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f98170ae0f3d4f6d95c528346d78d582). The IHS Markit Germany Composite Output Index of the IHS Markit Germany Services PMI®, combining manufacturing and services with close association with Germany’s GDP, decreased from 57.4 in May to 56.4 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/1c5df0d4319c48ef8e6746d8f482f5f9). Trevor Balchin, Senior Economist at IHS Markit, finds improving growth of Germany (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/1c5df0d4319c48ef8e6746d8f482f5f9). The Germany Services Business Activity Index decreased from 55.4 in May to 54.0 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/1c5df0d4319c48ef8e6746d8f482f5f9). The IHS Markit/BME Germany Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®), showing close association with Germany’s manufacturing conditions, increased from 59.5 in May to 59.6 in
Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/363ad18b8f0d40cf985fe5aa9cc24bf2). New export orders increased. Trevor Balchin, Senior Economist at IHS Markit, finds continuing growth conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/363ad18b8f0d40cf985fe5aa9cc24bf2). Table DE provides the country data table for Germany.
Table DE, Germany, Economic Indicators
GDP | IQ2017 0.6 ∆%; IQ2017/IQ2016 ∆% 2.9 2016/2015: 1.9% GDP ∆% 1970-2015 Blog 8/26/12 5/27/12 11/25/12 2/24/13 5/19/13 5/26/13 8/18/13 8/25/13 11/17/13 11/24/13 1/26/14 2/16/14 3/2/14 5/18/14 5/25/14 8/17/14 9/7/14 11/16/14 11/30/14 2/15/15 3/1/15 5/17/15 5/24/15 8/16/15 8/30/15 11/22/15 11/29/15 2/14/16 2/28/16 5/15/16 5/29/16 8/14/16 8/28/16 11/20/16 11/27/16 2/19/17 02/26/17 05/14/17 5/28/17 |
Consumer Price Index | Jun month NSA ∆%: 0.2 |
Producer Price Index | May month ∆%: -0.2 NSA, -0.1 CSA |
Industrial Production | MFG May month CSA ∆%: 1.2 Earlier Data: |
Machine Orders | MFG May month ∆%: 1.0 Earlier Data: |
Retail Sales | May Month ∆% 0.5 Apr -0.2 12-Month May % 4.8 Apr -0.4 Earlier Data: Blog 4/5/15 |
Employment Report | Unemployment Rate SA May 3.9% |
Trade Balance | Exports May 12-month NSA ∆%: 14.1 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15 |
Links to blog comments in Table DE: 07/02/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/dollar-devaluation-and-rising-yields.html
6/25/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/united-states-commercial-banks-united.html
6/18/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/fomc-interest-rate-increase-planned.html
6/4/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html
5/28/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html
5/14/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million_14.html
2/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html
02/19/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html
11/27/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/dollar-revaluation-rising-yields-and.html
11/20/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/interest-rate-increase-could-well.html
11/13/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/dollar-revaluation-and-valuations-of.html
11/6/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/the-case-for-increase-in-federal-funds.html
8/28/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/and-as-ever-economic-outlook-is.html
8/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html
5/29/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/appropriate-for-fed-to-increase.html
5/15/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html
2/28/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html
2/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/subdued-foreign-growth-and-dollar.html
11/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/dollar-revaluation-constraining.html
11/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-liftoff-followed-by.html
08/30/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/fluctuations-of-global-financial.html
08/16/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/exchange-rate-and-financial-asset.html
5/24/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/interest-rate-policy-and-dollar.html
5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html
4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html
4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html
3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html
2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html
11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html
11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html
9/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/competitive-monetary-policy-and.html
8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html
5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html
5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html
3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html
2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html
1/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/01/capital-flows-exchange-rates-and.html
11/24/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html
11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html
8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html
8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html
VF France. Table VF-FR provides growth rates of GDP of France with the estimates of Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE). The long-term rate of GDP growth of France from IVQ1949 to IQ2017 is quite high at 3.1 percent. France’s growth rates were quite high in the four decades of the 1950s, 1960, 1970s and 1980s with an average growth rate of 4.0 percent compounding the average rates in the decades and discounting to one decade. The growth impulse diminished with 2.1 percent in the 1990s and 1.8 percent from 2000 to 2007. The average growth rate from 2000 to 2016, using fourth quarter data, is 1.1 percent because of the sharp impact of the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. Cobet and Wilson (2002) provide estimates of output per hour and unit labor costs in national currency and US dollars for the US, Japan and Germany from 1950 to 2000 (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 137-44). The average yearly rate of productivity change from 1950 to 2000 was 2.9 percent in the US, 6.3 percent for Japan and 4.7 percent for Germany while unit labor costs in USD increased at 2.6 percent in the US, 4.7 percent in Japan and 4.3 percent in Germany. From 1995 to 2000, output per hour increased at the average yearly rate of 4.6 percent in the US, 3.9 percent in Japan and 2.6 percent in Germany while unit labor costs in US fell at minus 0.7 percent in the US, 4.3 percent in Japan and 7.5 percent in Germany. There was increase in productivity growth in the G7 in Japan and France in the second half of the 1990s but significantly lower than the acceleration of 1.3 percentage points per year in the US. Lucas (2011May) compares growth of the G7 economies (US, UK, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Canada) and Spain, finding that catch-up growth with earlier rates for the US and UK stalled in the 1970s.
Table VF-FR, France, Average Growth Rates of GDP Fourth Quarter, 1949-2016
Period | Average ∆% |
1949-2017 | 3.1 |
2007-2017*** | 0.6 |
2007-2016** | 0.5 |
2007-2015* | 0.5 |
2007-2014 | 0.4 |
2000-2016 | 1.1 |
2000-2015 | 1.1 |
2000-2014 | 1.1 |
2000-2007 | 1.8 |
1990-1999 | 2.1 |
1980-1989 | 2.6 |
1970-1979 | 3.7 |
1960-1969 | 5.7 |
1950-1959 | 4.2 |
*IVQ2007 to IVQ2015 **IVQ2007 to IVQ2016 ***IVQ2007 to IQ2017
Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques
https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/2877123
http://www.bdm.insee.fr/bdm2/choixTheme?request_locale=en&code=10#arbo:montrerbranches=theme312
The IHS Markit Flash France Composite Output Index decreased from 56.9 in May to 55.3 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/62526da80be2437888197d7cf1f1c8ad). Alex Gill, Economist at IHS Markit and author of the report, finds improving activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/62526da80be2437888197d7cf1f1c8ad). The IHS Markit France Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing with close association with French GDP, decreased from 56.9 in May to 56.6 in Jun, indicating slower activity of the private sector (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/6b65258593994583aea607a11f08e5a8). Alex Gill, Economist at IHS Markit that compiles the France Services PMI®, finds continuing growth (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/6b65258593994583aea607a11f08e5a8). The IHS Markit France Services Activity index decreased from 57.2 in May to 56.9 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/6b65258593994583aea607a11f08e5a8). The IHS Markit France Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index® increased to 54.8 in Jun from 53.8 in May (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/960c0888687c4d02bce00437ba1058ce). Alex Gill, Economist at IHS Markit, finds improving manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/960c0888687c4d02bce00437ba1058ce). Table FR provides the country data table for France.
Table FR, France, Economic Indicators
CPI | Jun month ∆% 0.0 |
PPI | Apr month ∆%: -0.6 Blog 7/2/17 |
GDP Growth | IQ2017/IVQ2016 ∆%: 0.5 |
Industrial Production | Feb ∆%: Earlier Data: |
Consumer Spending | Manufactured Goods Earlier Data: |
Employment | Unemployment Rate: IQ2017 9.3% |
Trade Balance | May Exports ∆%: month 4.3 12 months 7.2 Imports ∆%: month 2.2, 12 months 12.0 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15 |
Confidence Indicators | Historical average 100 May Mfg Business Climate 108 Earlier Data: Blog 3/29/15 |
Links to blog comments in Table FR: 07/02/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/dollar-devaluation-and-rising-yields.html
6/25/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/united-states-commercial-banks-united.html
6/4/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html
5/21/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/dollar-devaluation-world-inflation.html
5/7/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html
3/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html
3/5/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html
2/12/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html
1/1/17 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/rules-versus-discretionary-authorities.html
12/4/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/rising-yields-and-dollar-revaluation.html
10/30/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/10/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_30.html
9/25/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/the-economic-outlook-is-inherently.html
9/4/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/interest-rates-and-valuations-of-risk.html
8/7/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/global-competitive-easing-or.html
6/26/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/of-course-considerable-uncertainty.html
6/5/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/financial-turbulence-twenty-four.html
5/1/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/economic-activity-appears-to-have.html
3/27/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/contraction-of-united-states-corporate.html
2/28/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html
1/31/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/closely-monitoring-global-economic-and.html
12/27/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/dollar-revaluation-and-decreasing.html
11/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-policy-conundrum-recovery.html
9/27/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/monetary-policy-designed-on-measurable.html
08/16/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/exchange-rate-and-financial-asset.html
6/28/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/international-valuations-of-financial.html
5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html
4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html
4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html
3/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html
2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html
12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html
11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html
9/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html
8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html
6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html
5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html
4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html
2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html
12/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/collapse-of-united-states-dynamism-of.html
11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html
9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html
6/30/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/tapering-quantitative-easing-policy-and.html
5/19/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/word-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html
VG Italy. VG Italy. Table VG-IT provides revised percentage changes of GDP in Italy of quarter on prior quarter and quarter on same quarter a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, the GDP of Italy increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2016, GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2015, GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy changed 0.0 percent in IQ2014 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2013 and fell 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2013 and fell 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.1 in IIQ2013 and fell 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 1.1 percent in IQ2013 and declined 2.9 percent relative to IQ2012. GDP had been growing during six consecutive quarters but at very low rates from IQ2010 to IIQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell in seven consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at increasingly higher rates of contraction from 0.5 percent in IIIQ2011 to 1.0 percent in IVQ2011, 0.9 percent in IQ2012, 0.8 percent in IIQ2012 and 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012. The pace of decline accelerated to minus 0.6 percent in IVQ2012 and minus 1.1 percent in IQ2013. GDP contracted cumulatively 5.3 percent in seven consecutive quarterly contractions from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at the annual equivalent rate of minus 3.1 percent. The yearly rate has fallen from 2.2 percent in IVQ2010 to minus 2.8 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.9 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.0 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.3 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.7 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.0 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.1 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.0 percent in IIIQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.1 percent in IVQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.2 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier. Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of Italy in IQ2017 of €395,783 million (http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/200568) is lower by 6.8 percent relative to €424,823.8 million in IQ2008. Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of Italy increased from €367,664.4 million in IQ1998 to €424,823.8 million in IQ2008 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.5 percent. The fiscal adjustment of Italy is significantly more difficult with the economy not growing especially on the prospects of increasing government revenue. The strategy is for reforms to improve productivity, facilitating future fiscal consolidation.
Table VG-IT, Italy, GDP ∆%
Quarter ∆% Relative to Preceding Quarter | Quarter ∆% Relative to Same Quarter Year Earlier | |
IQ2017 | 0.4 | 1.2 |
IVQ2016 | 0.3 | 1.1 |
IIIQ2016 | 0.3 | 1.0 |
IIQ2016 | 0.1 | 0.8 |
IQ2016 | 0.4 | 1.1 |
IVQ2015 | 0.2 | 1.0 |
IIIQ2015 | 0.1 | 0.7 |
IIQ2015 | 0.4 | 0.7 |
IQ2015 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
IVQ2014 | -0.1 | 0.1 |
IIIQ2014 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
IIQ2014 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
IQ2014 | 0.0 | 0.4 |
IVQ2013 | 0.0 | -0.7 |
IIIQ2013 | 0.3 | -1.3 |
IIQ2013 | 0.1 | -2.0 |
IQ2013 | -1.1 | -2.9 |
IVQ2012 | -0.6 | -2.8 |
IIIQ2012 | -0.5 | -3.2 |
IIQ2012 | -0.8 | -3.2 |
IQ2012 | -0.9 | -2.3 |
IVQ2011 | -1.0 | -1.1 |
IIIQ2011 | -0.5 | 0.4 |
IIQ2011 | 0.1 | 1.5 |
IQ2011 | 0.2 | 2.1 |
IVQ2010 | 0.5 | 2.2 |
IIIQ2010 | 0.6 | 1.9 |
IIQ2010 | 0.8 | 1.9 |
IQ2010 | 0.3 | 0.5 |
IVQ2009 | 0.3 | -2.7 |
IIIQ2009 | 0.5 | -5.2 |
IIQ2009 | -0.6 | -6.9 |
IQ2009 | -2.9 | -7.1 |
IVQ2008 | -2.3 | -3.5 |
IIIQ2008 | -1.3 | -1.3 |
IIQ2008 | -0.8 | -0.1 |
IQ2008 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
IV2007 | -0.1 | 0.1 |
IIIQ2007 | -0.1 | 1.2 |
IIQ2007 | 0.0 | 1.7 |
IQ2007 | 0.2 | 2.3 |
Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/200568
The IHS Markit Italy Business Activity Index decreased from 55.1 in May to 53.6 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f98eb905ae1346f38e2b657e41425510). Phil Smith, Economist at IHS Markit that compiles the Italy Services PMI®, finds positive conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f98eb905ae1346f38e2b657e41425510). The IHS Markit Italy Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®), increased from 55.1 in May to 55.2 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/11de9174cc55474298c3e939307f7918). New export orders continued to increase. Phil Smith, Economist at HIS Markit that compiles the Italian Manufacturing PMI®, finds consistent manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/11de9174cc55474298c3e939307f7918). Table IT provides the country data table for Italy.
Table IT, Italy, Economic Indicators
Consumer Price Index | Jun month ∆% -0.1 |
Producer Price Index | May month ∆%: -0.4 Apr 12-month ∆%: 3.1 Blog 7/2/17 |
GDP Growth | IQ2017/IVQ2016 SA ∆%: 0.4 |
Labor Report | Apr 2017 Participation rate 65.3% Employment ratio 57.9% Unemployment rate 11.1% Youth Unemployment 34.0% Blog 6/4/17 |
Industrial Production | May month ∆%: 0.7 Earlier Data: |
Retail Sales | May month ∆%: -0.1 May 12-month ∆%: 1.0 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15 |
Business Confidence | Mfg Jun 107.3, Feb 106.3 Construction Jun 129.8, Feb 123.9 Earlier Data: Blog 4/5/15 |
Trade Balance | Balance May SA €3404 million Earlier Data: |
Links to blog comments in Table IT: 07/02/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/dollar-devaluation-and-rising-yields.html
6/18/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/fomc-interest-rate-increase-planned.html
6/4/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html
5/21/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/dollar-devaluation-world-inflation.html
3/12/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/increasing-interest-rates-twenty-four.html
2/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html
12/4/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/rising-yields-and-dollar-revaluation.html
11/20/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/interest-rate-increase-could-well.html
9/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/interest-rate-uncertainty-and-valuation.html
8/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html
6/5/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/financial-turbulence-twenty-four.html
5/15/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html
3/6/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/twenty-five-million-unemployed-or.html
2/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/subdued-foreign-growth-and-dollar.html
12/6/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/liftoff-of-fed-funds-rate-followed-by.html
11/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-policy-conundrum-recovery.html
9/6/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what.html
08/16/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/exchange-rate-and-financial-asset.html
5/31/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/dollar-revaluation-squeezing-corporate.html
5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html
4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html
4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html
4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html
3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html
2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html
12/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/financial-risks-twenty-six-million.html
11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html
10/19/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/imf-view-squeeze-of-economic-activity.html
8/31/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitical-and-financial-risks.html
8/10/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/volatility-of-valuations-of-risk_10.html
6/15/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financialgeopolitical-risks-recovery.html
5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html
3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html
2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html
12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html
11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html
9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html
8/11/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/recovery-without-hiring-loss-of-full.html
6/16/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/recovery-without-hiring-seven-million.html
3/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html
VH United Kingdom. Annual data in Table VH-UK show the strong impact of the global recession in the UK with decline of GDP of 4.3 percent in 2009 after dropping 0.6 percent in 2008. Recovery of 1.9 percent in 2010 is relatively low in comparison with annual growth rates in 2007 and earlier years. Growth was only 1.5 percent in 2011 and 1.3 percent in 2012. Growth increased to 1.9 percent in 2013 and 3.1 percent in 2014. Growth fell to 2.2 percent in 2015 and 1.8 percent in 2016. The bottom part of Table VH-UK provides average growth rates of UK GDP since 1948. The UK economy grew at 2.5 percent per year on average between 1948 and 2016, which is relatively high for an advanced economy. The growth rate of GDP between 2000 and 2007 is higher at 2.7 percent. Growth in the current cyclical expansion from 2010 to 2016 has been only at 2.0 percent as advanced economies struggle with weak internal demand and world trade. GDP in 2016 is higher by 8.9 percent relative to 2007 while it would have been 27.1 higher at trend of 2.7 percent as from 2000 to 2007.
Table VH-UK, UK, Gross Domestic Product, ∆%
∆% on Prior Year | |
1998 | 3.2 |
1999 | 3.3 |
2000 | 3.7 |
2001 | 2.7 |
2002 | 2.4 |
2003 | 3.5 |
2004 | 2.5 |
2005 | 3.0 |
2006 | 2.5 |
2007 | 2.6 |
2008 | -0.6 |
2009 | -4.3 |
2010 | 1.9 |
2011 | 1.5 |
2012 | 1.3 |
2013 | 1.9 |
2014 | 3.1 |
2015 | 2.2 |
2016 | 1.8 |
Average Growth Rates ∆% per Year | |
1948-2016 | 2.5 |
1950-1959 | 3.1 |
1960-1969 | 3.1 |
1970-1979 | 2.6 |
1980-1989 | 3.2 |
1990-1999 | 2.2 |
2000-2007 | 2.7 |
2007-2013* | 1.6 |
2007-2014* | 4.7 |
2007-2015 | 0.8 |
2007-2016 | 1.0 |
2000-2016 | 1.7 |
*Absolute change from 2007 to 2013 and 2007 to 2014
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
The HIS Markit Flash UK PMI® Composite Output Index fell from 52.4 in Jun to 47.7 in Jul, which is the lowest in 87 months (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/b68c3686a48c40198505b81e4e55cd81). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds the index suggests pace of contraction of GDP at 0.4 percent in IIIQ2016 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/b68c3686a48c40198505b81e4e55cd81). The Business Activity Index of the IHS Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI® decreased from 53.8 in May to 53.4 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/70057b6e5aea4629b5157589b0f97f21). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds the combined indices consistent with the UK economy growing close to 0.4 percent in IIQ2017 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/70057b6e5aea4629b5157589b0f97f21). The IHS Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®) decreased to 54.3 in Jun from 56.3 in May (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/5c12cda5843a4817a8028785232865dd). New export orders increased. Rob Dobson, Senior Economist at IHS Markit that compiles the Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI®, finds easing manufacturing with currency depreciation (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/5c12cda5843a4817a8028785232865dd). Table UK provides the economic indicators for the United Kingdom.
Table UK, UK Economic Indicators
CPI | May month ∆%: 0.3 |
Output/Input Prices | Output Prices: May 12-month NSA ∆%: 3.6; excluding food, petroleum ∆%: 2.8 |
GDP Growth | IQ2017 prior quarter ∆% 0.2; year earlier same quarter ∆%: 2.0 |
Industrial Production | May 2017/May 2016 ∆%: Production Industries -0.1; Manufacturing -0.8 Earlier Data: |
Retail Sales | Apr month ∆%: 2.3 Earlier Data: |
Labor Market | Mar-May 2017 Unemployment Rate: 4.5% |
GDP and the Labor Market | IQ2015 Employment 104.8 IQ2008 =100 GDP IQ15=104.0 IQ2008=100 Blog 5/17/14 |
Trade Balance | Balance SA May -₤3073 million EARLIER DATA: |
Links to blog comments in Table UK: 7/9/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/rising-yields-twenty-two-million.html
6/18/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/fomc-interest-rate-increase-planned.html
5/28/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html
5/21/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/dollar-devaluation-world-inflation.html
2/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html
2/5/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/twenty-six-million-unemployed-or.html
1/1/17 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/rules-versus-discretionary-authorities.html
11/27/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/dollar-revaluation-rising-yields-and.html
10/30/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/10/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_30.html
10/9/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/10/twenty-four-million-unemployed-or.html
9/4/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/interest-rates-and-valuations-of-risk.html
7/31/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/business-fixed-investment-has-been-soft.html
7/3/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/financial-asset-values-rebound-from.html
5/29/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/appropriate-for-fed-to-increase.html
5/1/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/economic-activity-appears-to-have.html
4/3/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/04/proceeding-cautiously-in-monetary.html
2/28/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html
1/31/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/closely-monitoring-global-economic-and.html
12/27/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/dollar-revaluation-and-decreasing.html
11/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/dollar-revaluation-constraining.html
11/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-increase-considered.html
10/4/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/10/labor-market-uncertainty-and-interest.html
9/6/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what.html
08/02/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/turbulence-of-valuations-of-financial.html
7/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/07/turbulence-of-financial-asset.html
5/31/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/dollar-revaluation-squeezing-corporate.html
5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html
5/3/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/dollar-devaluation-and-carry-trade.html
4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html
4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html
4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html
3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html
2/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html
12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html
11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html
10/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/financial-oscillations-world-inflation.html
10/5/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/world-financial-turbulence-twenty-seven.html
8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html
7/27/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html
6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html
5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html
5/4/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html
4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html
3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html
2/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html
12/22/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html
12/1/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/exit-risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html
10/27/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/twenty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html
9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html
8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html
7/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html
5/26/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html
4/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_28.html
03/31/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html
Table VH-L3 provides indicators of the labor force survey of the UK for Mar-May 2017 and earlier quarters. There has been improvement in UK labor markets with the rate of unemployment decreasing from 4.9 percent in Mar-May 2016 to 4.5 percent in Mar-May 2017.
Table VH-L3, UK, Labor Force Survey Indicators, Thousands, SA
LFHP | EMP | PART | UNE | RATE | |
Mar-May 2015 | 40,822 | 31,050 | 73.3 | 1,847 | 5.6 |
Mar-May 2016 | 40,990 | 31,686 | 74.4 | 1,647 | 4.9 |
Jun-Aug 2016 | 41,028 | 31,788 | 74.5 | 1,658 | 5.0 |
Sep-Nov 2016 | 41,060 | 31,792 | 74.5 | 1,600 | 4.8 |
Dec-Feb 2016 | 41,092 | 31,835 | 74.6 | 1,559 | 4.7 |
Mar-May 2017 | 41,125 | 32,010 | 74.9 | 1,495 | 4.5 |
∆ on Quarter | 33 | 175 | 0.3 | -64 | -0.2 |
∆% | 0.1 | 0.6 | -4.1 | ||
∆ on Year | 135 | 324 | 0.6 | -152 | -0.5 |
∆% | 0.3 | 1.0 | -9.2 |
Notes: LFHP: Labor Force Household Population Ages 16 to 64 in thousands; EMP: Employed Ages 16 and over in thousands; PART: Employment as % of Population Ages 16 to 64; UNE: Unemployed Ages 16 and over in thousands; Rate: Number Unemployed Ages 16 and over as % of Employed plus Unemployed
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017.
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