Saturday, April 10, 2021

Increase in Valuations of Risk Financial Assets, Total Nonfarm Hires Move from 4986 Thousand in Feb 2020 and 4263 Thousand in Apr 2020 to 4746 Thousand in Feb 2021 in the Global Recession, with Output in the US Reaching a High in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the Lockdown of Economic Activity in the COVID-19 Event, Recovery Without Hiring in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth Underperforming Below Trend Worldwide, Fifteen Million Fewer Full-Time Jobs, Youth and Middle Age Unemployment, United States International Trade, World Cyclical Slow Growth, and Government Intervention in Globalization: Part I

 

Increase in Valuations of Risk Financial Assets, Total Nonfarm Hires Move from 4986 Thousand in Feb 2020 and 4263 Thousand in Apr 2020 to 4746 Thousand in Feb 2021 in the Global Recession, with Output in the US Reaching a High in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the Lockdown of Economic Activity in the COVID-19 Event, Recovery Without Hiring in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth Underperforming Below Trend Worldwide, Fifteen Million Fewer Full-Time Jobs, Youth and Middle Age Unemployment, United States International Trade, World Cyclical Slow Growth, and Government Intervention in Globalization

Carlos M. Pelaez

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021.

I Recovery without Hiring

IA1 Hiring Collapse

IA2 Labor Underutilization

ICA3 Fifteen Million Fewer Full-time Jobs

IA4 Theory and Reality of Cyclical Slow Growth Not Secular Stagnation: Youth and Middle-Age Unemployment

II United States International Trade

III World Financial Turbulence

IV Global Inflation

V World Economic Slowdown

VA United States

VB Japan

VC China

VD Euro Area

VE Germany

VF France

VG Italy

VH United Kingdom

VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets

VII Economic Indicators

VIII Interest Rates

IX Conclusion

References

Appendixes

Appendix I The Great Inflation

IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies

IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact

IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort

IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis

I Recovery without Hiring. Professor Edward P. Lazear (2012Jan19) at Stanford University finds that recovery of hiring in the US to peaks attained in 2007 requires an increase of hiring by 30 percent while hiring levels increased by only 4 percent from Jan 2009 to Jan 2012. The high level of unemployment with low level of hiring reduces the statistical probability that the unemployed will find a job. According to Lazear (2012Jan19), the probability of finding a new job in early 2012 is about one third of the probability of finding a job in 2007. Improvements in labor markets have not increased the probability of finding a new job. Lazear (2012Jan19) quotes an essay coauthored with James R. Spletzer in the American Economic Review (Lazear and Spletzer 2012Mar, 2012May) on the concept of churn. A dynamic labor market occurs when a similar number of workers is hired as those who are separated. This replacement of separated workers is called churn, which explains about two-thirds of total hiring. Typically, wage increases received in a new job are higher by 8 percent. Lazear (2012Jan19) argues that churn has declined 35 percent from the level before the recession in IVQ2007. Because of the collapse of churn, there are no opportunities in escaping falling real wages by moving to another job. As this blog argues, there are meager chances of escaping unemployment because of the collapse of hiring and those employed cannot escape falling real wages by moving to another job (Section I and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/03/increase-in-valuations-of-risk.html). Lazear and Spletzer (2012Mar, 1) argue that reductions of churn reduce the operational effectiveness of labor markets. Churn is part of the allocation of resources or in this case labor to occupations of higher marginal returns. The decline in churn can harm static and dynamic economic efficiency. Losses from decline of churn during recessions can affect an economy over the long-term by preventing optimal growth trajectories because resources are not used in the occupations where they provide highest marginal returns. Lazear and Spletzer (2012Mar 7-8) conclude that: “under a number of assumptions, we estimate that the loss in output during the recession [of 2007 to 2009] and its aftermath resulting from reduced churn equaled $208 billion. On an annual basis, this amounts to about .4% of GDP for a period of 3½ years.”

There are two additional facts discussed below: (1) there are about fifteen million fewer full-time jobs currently than before the recession of 2008 and 2009; and (2) the extremely high and rigid rate of youth unemployment is denying an early start to young people ages 16 to 24 years while unemployment of ages 45 years or over has swelled. There are four subsections. IA1 Hiring Collapse provides the data and analysis on the weakness of hiring in the United States economy. IA2 Labor Underutilization provides the measures of labor underutilization of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Statistics on the decline of full-time employment are in IA3 Fifteen Million Fewer Full-time Jobs. IA4 Theory and Reality of Cyclical Slow Growth Not Secular Stagnation: Youth and Middle-Age Unemployment provides the data on high unemployment of ages 16 to 24 years and of ages 45 years or over.

IA1 Hiring Collapse. An important characteristic of the current fractured labor market of the US is the closing of the avenue for exiting unemployment and underemployment normally available through dynamic hiring. Another avenue that is closed is the opportunity for advancement in moving to new jobs that pay better salaries and benefits again because of the collapse of hiring in the United States. Those who are unemployed or underemployed cannot find a new job even accepting lower wages and no benefits. The employed cannot escape declining inflation-adjusted earnings because there is no hiring. The objective of this section is to analyze hiring and labor underutilization in the United States.

Blanchard and Katz (1997, 53 consider an appropriate measure of job stress:

“The right measure of the state of the labor market is the exit rate from unemployment, defined as the number of hires divided by the number unemployed, rather than the unemployment rate itself. What matters to the unemployed is not how many of them there are, but how many of them there are in relation to the number of hires by firms.”

The natural rate of unemployment and the similar NAIRU are quite difficult to estimate in practice (Ibid; see Ball and Mankiw 2002).

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) created the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) with the purpose that (https://www.bls.gov/jlt/jltover.htm#purpose):

“These data serve as demand-side indicators of labor shortages at the national level. Prior to JOLTS, there was no economic indicator of the unmet demand for labor with which to assess the presence or extent of labor shortages in the United States. The availability of unfilled jobs—the jobs opening rate—is an important measure of tightness of job markets, parallel to existing measures of unemployment.”

The BLS collects data from about 16,000 US business establishments in nonagricultural industries through the 50 states and DC. The data are released monthly and constitute an important complement to other data provided by the BLS (see also Lazear and Spletzer 2012Mar, 6-7).

There is socio-economic stress in the combination of adverse events and cyclical performance:

and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/07/fluctuating-risk-financial-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/fluctuating-financial-asset-valuations.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/01/exchange-rate-conflicts-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/patience-on-interest-rate-increases.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/imf-view-squeeze-of-economic-activity.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised on Mar 17, 2016 “With the release of January 2016 data on March 17, job openings, hires, and separations data have been revised from December 2000 forward to incorporate annual updates to the Current Employment Statistics employment estimates and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) seasonal adjustment factors. In addition, all data series are now available on a seasonally adjusted basis. Tables showing the revisions from 2000 through 2015 can be found using this link: http://www.bls.gov/jlt/revisiontables.htm.” (https://www.bls.gov/jlt/). The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised on Mar 16, 2017: “With the release of January 2017 data on March 16, job openings, hires, and separations data have been revised to incorporate annual updates to the Current Employment Statistics employment estimates and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) seasonal adjustment factors” (https://www.bls.gov/jlt/revisiontables.htm) (https://www.bls.gov/jlt/). The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised on Mar 16, 2018 “With the release of January 2018 data on March 16, job openings, hires, and separations data have been revised to incorporate annual updates to the Current Employment Statistics employment estimates and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) seasonal adjustment factors. Tables showing the revisions from 2013 through 2017 can be found using this link: https://www.bls.gov/jlt/revisiontables.htm (https://www.bls.gov/jlt/).“ The Bureau of Labor Statistics incorporated corrections on Sep 11, 2018: “This news release contains corrections to previously released data in tables A, 1-3, 5, 7-9, and 11. More information on these corrections as well as a complete list of corrections in this news release and in the JOLTS database can be found at www.bls.gov/bls/errata/jolts-errata-06122018.htm.” (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf). The Bureau of Labor Statistics introduced revisions on Mar 15, 2019: (Revisions and Methodology Change
“With the release of January 2019 data on March 15, job openings, hires, and separations data have been revised to incorporate annual updates to the Current Employment Statistics employment estimates and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) seasonal adjustment factors. Tables showing the revisions from 2000 through 2018 can be found using this link: https://www.bls.gov/jlt/revisiontables.htm.

JOLTS Data by Firm Size
The firm size data have been updated to add calendar year 2017. There were no changes to the methodology. All estimates from December 2000 through December 2016 were subject to revision in the new release. The experimental firm size class estimates and information regarding the methodology are available on the JOLTS firm size class page)”.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics introduced revisions on Mar 17, 2020 (Revisions to Job Openings and Labor Turnover Data): “The JOLTS data are revised annually to reflect annual updates to the CES employment estimates. The JOLTS employment levels (not published) are ratio-adjusted to the CES employment levels, and the resulting ratios are applied to all JOLTS data elements. This annual benchmarking process results in revisions to both the seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted JOLTS data series, for the period since the last benchmark was established. The seasonally adjusted data are recalculated for the most recent 5 years in order to reflect updated seasonal adjustment factors. Further, the alignment methodology creates a dependency of the not seasonally adjusted estimates on the seasonal adjustment process. Therefore, the data series that are not seasonally adjusted are also recalculated for the most recent 5 years in order to reflect the effect of the updated seasonal adjustment factors on the alignment process.”

On Mar 11, 2021, the BLS revised JOLTS data from 2016 to 2020 and introduced estimates for Jan 2021 (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf).

Hiring in the nonfarm sector (HNF) has increased from 64.873 million in 2006 to 69.984 million in 2019 or by 5.111 million while hiring in the private sector (HP) has increased from 60.540 million in 2006 to 65.564 million in 2019 or by 5.024 million, as shown in Table I-1. The ratio of nonfarm hiring to employment (RNF) has fallen from 47.5 in 2005 to 46.4 in 2019 and in the private sector (RHP) from 53.2 in 2005 to 51.1 in 2019. Hiring did not recover from the global recession after 2007 as in previous cyclical expansions because of the low rate of economic growth in the cyclical expansion. The civilian noninstitutional population or those in condition to work increased from 228.815 million in 2006 to 259.175 million in 2019 or by 30.360 million. Hiring has not recovered prerecession levels while needs of hiring multiplied because of growth of population by more than 30 million. Private hiring of 60.450 million in 2006 was equivalent to 26.4 percent of the civilian noninstitutional population of 228.815, or those in condition of working, increasing to 65.564 million in 2019 or 25.3 percent of the civilian noninstitutional population of 259.175 million in 2019. The percentage of hiring in civilian noninstitutional population of 26.4 percent in 2006 would correspond to 68.422 million of hiring in 2019 (0.264x259.175), which would be 2.858 million higher than actual 65.564 million in 2019. There were wide oscillations in employment and hiring with high levels of unemployment in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Nonfarm hiring increased from 69.984 million in 2019 to 73.094 million in 2020 while the rate increased from 46.4 to 51.4. Private hiring increased from 65,564 million in 2019 to 68.899 million in 2020 while the rate increased from 51.1 in 2019 to 57.3 in 2020. Long-term economic performance in the United States consisted of trend growth of GDP at 3 percent per year and of per capita GDP at 2 percent per year as measured for 1870 to 2010 by Robert E Lucas (2011May). The economy returned to trend growth after adverse events such as wars and recessions. The key characteristic of adversities such as recessions was much higher rates of growth in expansion periods that permitted the economy to recover output, income and employment losses that occurred during the contractions. Over the business cycle, the economy compensated the losses of contractions with higher growth in expansions to maintain trend growth of GDP of 3 percent and of GDP per capita of 2 percent. The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. US economic growth has been at only 1.9 percent on average in the cyclical expansion in the 46 quarters from IIIQ2009 to IVQ2020 and in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Boskin (2010Sep) measures that the US economy grew at 6.2 percent in the first four quarters and 4.5 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the second quarter of 1975; and at 7.7 percent in the first four quarters and 5.8 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the first quarter of 1983 (Professor Michael J. Boskin, Summer of Discontent, Wall Street Journal, Sep 2, 2010 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882304575465462926649950.html). There are new calculations using the revision of US GDP and personal income data since 1929 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) and the third estimate of GDP for IVQ2020 (https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2021-03/gdp4q20_3rd.pdf). The average of 7.7 percent in the first four quarters of major cyclical expansions is in contrast with the rate of growth in the first four quarters of the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010 of only 2.8 percent obtained by dividing GDP of $15,557.3 billion in IIQ2010 by GDP of $15,134.1 billion in IIQ2009 {[($15,557.3/$15,134.1) -1]100 = 2.8%], or accumulating the quarter on quarter growth rates (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/03/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-43-percent-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/02/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-41-percent-in.html). The expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1986 was at the average annual growth rate of 5.7 percent, 5.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1986, 5.1 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1986, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1989, 4.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1989, 4.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1989, 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1989. 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1990, 4.4 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1990, 4.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1990, 4.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1990, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1992, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1994, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1994 and at 7.9 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/03/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-43-percent-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/02/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-41-percent-in.html). The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dates a contraction of the US from IQ1990 (Jul) to IQ1991 (Mar) (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html). The expansion lasted until another contraction beginning in IQ2001 (Mar). US GDP contracted 1.3 percent from the pre-recession peak of $8983.9 billion of chained 2009 dollars in IIIQ1990 to the trough of $8865.6 billion in IQ1991 (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IVQ2020 and in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event would have accumulated to 46.9 percent. GDP in IVQ2020 would be $23,147.0 billion (in constant dollars of 2012) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $4352.6 billion than actual $18,794.4 billion. There are more than four trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 30.0 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 17.4 percent of the effective labor force with the largest part originating in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/04/increase-in-apr-2021-of-nonfarm-payroll.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/03/increase-in-feb-2021-of-nonfarm-payroll.html). Unemployment is decreasing while employment is increasing in initial adjustment of the lockdown of economic activity in the global recession resulting from the COVID-19 event (https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-march-2021.htm). US GDP in IVQ2020 is 18.8 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $15,762.0 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $18,794.4 billion in IVQ2020 or 19.2 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.4 percent. Professor John H. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. Cochrane (2016May02) measures GDP growth in the US at average 3.5 percent per year from 1950 to 2000 and only at 1.76 percent per year from 2000 to 2015 with only at 2.0 percent annual equivalent in the current expansion. Cochrane (2016May02) proposes drastic changes in regulation and legal obstacles to private economic activity. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 3.0 percent per year from Feb 1919 to Feb 2021. Growth at 3.0 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 159.8259 in Feb 2021. The actual index NSA in Feb 2021 is 100.0959 which is 37.4 percent below trend. The underperformance of manufacturing in Mar-Aug 2020 originates partly in the earlier global recession augmented by the current global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19. Manufacturing grew at the average annual rate of 3.3 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2006. Growth at 3.3 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 166.0649 in Feb 2021. The actual index NSA in Feb 2021 is 100.0959, which is 39.7 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 1.7 percent between Dec 1986 and Feb 2021. Using trend growth of 1.7 percent per year, the index would increase to 135.2123 in Feb 2021. The output of manufacturing at 100.0959 in Feb 2021 is 26.0 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Using the NAICS (North American Industry Classification System), manufacturing output fell from the high of 110.5147 in Jun 2007 to the low of 86.3800 in Apr 2009 or 21.8 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased from 86.3800 in Apr 2009 to 101.6996 in Feb 2021 or 17.7 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased at the annual equivalent rate of 3.5 percent from Dec 1986 to Dec 2006. Growth at 3.5 percent would increase the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 167.7988 in Feb 2021. The NAICS index at 101.6996 in Feb 2021 is 39.4 below trend. The NAICS manufacturing output index grew at 1.7 percent annual equivalent from Dec 1999 to Dec 2006. Growth at 1.7 percent would raise the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 133.1884 in Feb 2021. The NAICS index at 101.6996 in Feb 2021 is 23.6 percent below trend under this alternative calculation.

Table I-1, US, Annual Total Nonfarm Hiring (HNF) and Total Private Hiring (HP) in the US in Thousands and Percentage of Total Employment

 

HNF

Rate RNF

HP

Rate HP

2001

62,569

47.4

58,463

52.7

2002

58,199

44.5

54,254

49.7

2003

56,852

43.6

53,295

49.0

2004

60,525

45.9

56,673

51.4

2005

63,697

47.5

59,760

53.2

2006

64,873

47.5

60,540

52.9

2007

63,864

46.3

59,431

51.3

2008

56,407

41.1

52,808

46.0

2009

46,750

35.6

43,391

39.9

2010

49,655

38.1

45,749

42.4

2011

51,655

39.2

48,550

44.2

2012

53,343

39.8

49,818

44.4

2013

54,947

40.3

51,519

45.0

2014

58,955

42.4

55,369

47.3

2015

62,589

44.1

58,528

48.8

2016

63,743

44.2

59,500

48.7

2017

65,691

44.8

61,529

49.5

2018

68,596

46.1

64,284

50.8

2019

69,984

46.4

65,564

51.1

2020

73,094

51.4

68,899

57.3

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/jlt/

Chart I-1 shows the annual level of total nonfarm hiring (HNF) that collapsed during the global recession after 2007 in contrast with milder decline in the shallow recession of 2001. Nonfarm hiring has not recovered, remaining at a depressed level. The civilian noninstitutional population or those in condition to work increased from 228.815 million in 2006 to 259.175 million in 2019 or by 30.360 million. Hiring has not recovered precession levels while needs of hiring multiplied because of growth of population by more than 28 million. There were wide oscillations in employment and hiring with high levels of unemployment in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Nonfarm hiring increased from 69.984 million in 2019 to 73.094 million in 2020 while the rate increased from 46.4 to 51.4. Private hiring increased from 65,564 million in 2019 to 68.899 million in 2020 while the rate increased from 51.1 in 2019 to 57.3 in 2020.

clip_image001

Chart I-1, US, Level Total Nonfarm Hiring (HNF), Annual, 2001-2020

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/jlt/

Chart I-2 shows the ratio or rate of nonfarm hiring to employment (RNF) that also fell much more in the recession of 2007 to 2009 than in the shallow recession of 2001. Recovery is weak in the current environment of cyclical slow growth. There were wide oscillations in employment and hiring with high levels of unemployment in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Nonfarm hiring increased from 69.984 million in 2019 to 73.094 million in 2020 while the rate increased from 46.4 to 51.4. Private hiring increased from 65,564 million in 2019 to 68.899 million in 2020 while the rate increased from 51.1 in 2019 to 57.3 in 2020.

clip_image002

Chart I-2, US, Rate Total Nonfarm Hiring (HNF), Annual, 2001-2020

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/jlt/

Yearly percentage changes of total nonfarm hiring (HNF) are provided in Table I-2. There were much milder declines in 2002 of 7.0 percent and 2.3 percent in 2003 followed by strong rebounds of 6.5 percent in 2004 and 5.2 percent in 2005. In contrast, the contractions of nonfarm hiring in the recession after 2007 were much sharper in percentage points: 1.6 in 2007, 11.7 in 2008 and 17.1 percent in 2009. On a yearly basis, nonfarm hiring grew 6.2 percent in 2010 relative to 2009, 4.0 percent in 2011, 3.3 percent in 2012 and 3.0 percent in 2013. Nonfarm hiring grew 7.3 percent in 2014 and increased 6.2 percent in 2015. Nonfarm hiring grew 1.8 percent in 2016, increasing 3.1 percent in 2017. Nonfarm hiring increased 4.4 percent in 2018. Nonfarm hiring increased 2.0 percent in 2019. The relatively large length of 46 quarters of the current expansion reduces the likelihood of significant recovery of hiring levels in the United States because lower rates of growth and hiring in the final phase of expansions. Nonfarm hiring increased 4.4 percent in 2020 in wide oscillations in employment and hiring with high levels of unemployment in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.

Table I-2, US, Annual Total Nonfarm Hiring (HNF), Annual Percentage Change, 2002-2020

Year

Annual

2002

-7.0

2003

-2.3

2004

6.5

2005

5.2

2006

1.8

2007

-1.6

2008

-11.7

2009

-17.1

2010

6.2

2011

4.0

2012

3.3

2013

3.0

2014

7.3

2015

6.2

2016

1.8

2017

3.1

2018

4.4

2019

2.0

2020

4.4

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/jlt/

Total private hiring (HP) annual data are in Chart I-5. There has been sharp contraction of total private hiring in the US and inadequate recovery from 2010 to 2019. There were wide oscillations in employment and hiring with high levels of unemployment in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Nonfarm hiring increased from 69.984 million in 2019 to 73.094 million in 2020 while the rate increased from 46.4 to 51.4. Private hiring increased from 65,564 million in 2019 to 68.899 million in 2020 while the rate increased from 51.1 in 2019 to 57.3 in 2020.

clip_image003

Chart I-5, US, Total Private Hiring, Annual, 2001-2020

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/jlt/

Chart I-5A shows the ratio or rate of total private hiring to employment (RHP) that also fell much more in the recession of 2007 to 2009 than in the shallow recession of 2001. Recovery was weak in the environment of cyclical slow growth. There were wide oscillations in employment and hiring with high levels of unemployment in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Nonfarm hiring increased from 69.984 million in 2019 to 73.094 million in 2020 while the rate increased from 46.4 to 51.4. Private hiring increased from 65,564 million in 2019 to 68.899 million in 2020 while the rate increased from 51.1 in 2019 to 57.3 in 2020.

clip_image004

Chart I-5A, US, Rate Total Private Hiring, Annual, 2001-2020

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/jlt/

Total nonfarm hiring (HNF), total private hiring (HP) and their respective rates are in Table I-3 for the month of Feb in the years from 2001 to 2021. Hiring numbers are in thousands. There is recovery in HNF from 3290 thousand in Feb 2009 to 3122 thousand in Feb 2010, 3442 thousand in Feb 2011, 3744 thousand in Feb 2012, 3737 thousand in Feb 2013, 3854 thousand in Feb 2014, 4228 thousand in Feb 2015, 4551 thousand in Feb 2016, 4398 thousand in Feb 2017, 4660 thousand in Feb 2018, 4684 in Feb 2019 and 4986 in Feb 2020 for cumulative increase of 51.56 percent at the average yearly rate of 3.9 percent. HP rose from 3101 thousand in Feb 2009 to 2921 thousand in Feb 2010, 3284 thousand in Feb 2011, 3525 thousand in Feb 2012, 3520 thousand in Feb 2013, 3637 thousand in Feb 2014, 3987 thousand in Feb 2015, 4292 thousand in Feb 2016, 4136 thousand in Feb 2017, 4395 thousand in Feb 2018, 4426 thousand in Feb 2019 and 4686 in Feb 2020 for increase of 51.1 percent at the average yearly rate of 3.8 percent. HNF increased from 4520 thousand in Feb 2006 to 4986 thousand in Feb 2020 or by 10.3 percent. HP has increased from 4269 thousand in Feb 2006 to 4686 thousand in Feb 2020 or by 9.8 percent. The civilian noninstitutional population of the US, or those in condition of working, rose from 227.763 million in Feb 2006 to 260.918 million in Feb 2020, by 33.155 million or 14.6 percent. There is often ignored fact that nonfarm hiring increased by 10.3 percent and private hiring by 9.8 percent while population available for working increased around 14.6 percent. There is major deterioration in Mar-Apr 2020 in the global recession, with a peak of economic activity in the United States reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Hiring in the nonfarm sector (HNF) has increased from 64.873 million in 2006 to 69.984 million in 2019 or by 5.111 million while hiring in the private sector (HP) has increased from 60.540 million in 2006 to 65.564 million in 2019 or by 5.024 million, as shown in Table I-1. The ratio of nonfarm hiring to employment (RNF) has fallen from 47.5 in 2005 to 46.4 in 2019 and in the private sector (RHP) from 53.2 in 2005 to 51.1 in 2019. Hiring did not recover from the global recession after 2007 as in previous cyclical expansions because of the low rate of economic growth in the cyclical expansion. The civilian noninstitutional population or those in condition to work increased from 228.815 million in 2006 to 259.175 million in 2019 or by 30.360 million. Hiring has not recovered prerecession levels while needs of hiring multiplied because of growth of population by more than 30 million. Private hiring of 60.450 million in 2006 was equivalent to 26.4 percent of the civilian noninstitutional population of 228.815, or those in condition of working, increasing to 65.564 million in 2019 or 25.3 percent of the civilian noninstitutional population of 259.175 million in 2019. The percentage of hiring in civilian noninstitutional population of 26.4 percent in 2006 would correspond to 68.422 million of hiring in 2019 (0.264x259.175), which would be 2.858 million higher than actual 65.564 million in 2019. There were wide oscillations in employment and hiring with high levels of unemployment in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Nonfarm hiring increased from 69.984 million in 2019 to 73.094 million in 2020 while the rate increased from 46.4 to 51.4. Private hiring increased from 65,564 million in 2019 to 68.899 million in 2020 while the rate increased from 51.1 in 2019 to 57.3 in 2020. Long-term economic performance in the United States consisted of trend growth of GDP at 3 percent per year and of per capita GDP at 2 percent per year as measured for 1870 to 2010 by Robert E Lucas (2011May). The economy returned to trend growth after adverse events such as wars and recessions. The key characteristic of adversities such as recessions was much higher rates of growth in expansion periods that permitted the economy to recover output, income and employment losses that occurred during the contractions. Over the business cycle, the economy compensated the losses of contractions with higher growth in expansions to maintain trend growth of GDP of 3 percent and of GDP per capita of 2 percent. Cyclical slow growth over the entire business cycle from IVQ2007 to the present in comparison with earlier cycles and long-term trend (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/03/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-43-percent-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/02/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-41-percent-in.html) explains the fact that there are many million fewer hires in the US than before the global recession. The labor market continues to be fractured, failing to provide an opportunity to exit from unemployment/underemployment or to find an opportunity for advancement away from declining inflation-adjusted earnings.

Table I-3, US, Total Nonfarm Hiring (HNF) and Total Private Hiring (HP) in the US in

Thousands and in Percentage of Total Employment Not Seasonally Adjusted

 

HNF

Rate RNF

HP

Rate HP

2001 Feb

4376

3.3

4105

3.7

2002 Feb

3907

3.0

3679

3.4

2003 Feb

3829

3.0

3616

3.4

2004 Feb

3879

3.0

3652

3.4

2005 Feb

4321

3.3

4086

3.7

2006 Feb

4520

3.4

4269

3.8

2007 Feb

4262

3.1

3996

3.5

2008 Feb

4201

3.1

3973

3.5

2009 Feb

3290

2.5

3101

2.8

2010 Feb

3122

2.4

2921

2.8

2011 Feb

3442

2.7

3284

3.1

2012 Feb

3744

2.8

3525

3.2

2013 Feb

3737

2.8

3520

3.1

2014 Feb

3854

2.8

3637

3.2

2015 Feb

4228

3.0

3987

3.4

2016 Feb

4551

3.2

4292

3.6

2017 Feb

4398

3.0

4136

3.4

2018 Feb

4660

3.2

4395

3.5

2019 Feb

4684

3.2

4426

3.5

2020 Feb

4986

3.3

4686

3.7

2021 Feb

4746

3.3

4542

3.8

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/jlt/

Chart I-6 provides total nonfarm hiring monthly from 2001 to 2021. Nonfarm hiring rebounded in early 2010 but then fell and stabilized at a lower level than the early peak not-seasonally adjusted (NSA) of 4883 in May 2010 until it surpassed it with 5051 in Jun 2011 but declined to 3206 in Dec 2012. Nonfarm hiring fell to 3128 in Dec 2011 from 3956 in Nov 2011 and to revised 3744 in Feb 2012, increasing to 4288 in Mar 2012, 3206 in Dec 2012 and 4279 in Jan 2013 and declining to 3737 in Feb 2013. Nonfarm hires not seasonally adjusted increased to 4274 in Nov 2013 and 3335 in Dec 2013. Nonfarm hires reached 3822 in Dec 2014, 4136 in Dec 2015 and 3988 in Dec 2016. Nonfarm hires reached 4054 in Dec 2017, 4316 in Dec 2018, 4466 in Dec 2019, 4059 in Dec 2020 and 4746 in Feb 2021. Chart I-6 provides seasonally adjusted (SA) monthly data. The number of seasonally adjusted hires in Oct 2011 was 4370 thousand, increasing to revised 4560 thousand in Feb 2012, or 4.3 percent, moving to 4452 in Dec 2012 for cumulative increase of 2.2 percent from 4356 in Dec 2011 and 4614 in Dec 2013 for increase of 3.6 percent relative to 4452 in Dec 2012. The number of hires not seasonally adjusted was 5051 in Jun 2011, falling to 3128 in Dec 2011 but increasing to 4250 in Jan 2012 and declining to 3206 in Dec 2012. The number of nonfarm hiring not seasonally adjusted fell by 38.1 percent from 5051 in Jun 2011 to 3128 in Dec 2011 and fell 37.4 percent from 5120 in Jun 2012 to 3206 in Dec 2012 in a yearly-repeated seasonal pattern. The number of nonfarm hires not seasonally adjusted fell from 5129 in Jun 2013 to 3335 in Dec 2013, or decline of 35.0 percent, showing strong seasonality. The number of nonfarm hires not seasonally adjusted fell from 5612 in Jun 2014 to 3822 in Dec 2014 or 31.9 percent. The level of nonfarm hires fell from 5869 in Jun 2015 to 4136 in Dec 2015 or 29.5 percent. The level of nonfarm hires not seasonally adjusted fell from 6039 in Jun 2016 to 3988 in Dec 2016 or 34.0 percent. The level of nonfarm hires not seasonally adjusted fell from 6458 in Jun 2017 to 4054 in Dec 2017 or 37.2 percent. The level of nonfarm hires not seasonally adjusted fell from 6590 in Jun 2018 to 4316 in Dec 2018 or 34.5 percent. The level of nonfarm hires not seasonally adjusted fell from 6561 in Jun 2019 to 4466 in Dec 2019 or 31.9 percent. The level of nonfarm hires not seasonally adjusted fell from 8535 in Jun 2020 to 4059 in Dec 20 or 52.4 percent. There is sharp contraction in Mar-Apr 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. There is sharp recovery in May-Dec 2020 with strong seasonal effects.

clip_image005

Chart I-8, US, Total Private Hiring Month SA 2001-2021

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/jlt/

Similar behavior occurs in the rate of nonfarm hiring in Chart I-7. Recovery in early 2010 was followed by decline and stabilization at a lower level but with stability in monthly SA estimates of 3.3 in Aug 2011 to 3.3 in Jan 2012, increasing to 3.4 in May 2012 and stabilizing to 3.3 in Jun 2012. The rate stabilized at 3.2 in Jul 2012, increasing to 3.3 in Aug 2012 but moving to 3.3 in Dec 2012 and 3.4 in Dec 2013. The rate not seasonally adjusted fell from 3.8 in Jun 2011 to 2.3 in Dec 2011, climbing to 3.8 in Jun 2012 but falling to 2.4 in Dec 2012. The rate of nonfarm hires not seasonally adjusted fell from 3.7 in Jun 2013 to 2.4 in Dec 2013. The NSA rate of nonfarm hiring fell from 4.0 in Jun 2014 to 2.7 in Dec 2014. The NSA rate fell from 4.1 in Jun 2015 to 2.9 in Dec 2015. The NSA rate fell from 4.2 in Jun 2016 to 2.7 in Dec 2016. The NSA rate fell from 4.4 in Jun 2017 to 2.7 in Dec 2017. The NSA rate fell from 4.4 in Jun 2018 to 2.9 in Dec 2018. The NSA rate fell from 4.3 in Jun 2019 to 2.9 in Dec 2019. The NSA rate fell from 6.2 in Jun 2020 to 2.8 in Dec 2020. Rates of nonfarm hiring NSA were in the range of 2.8 (Dec) to 4.5 (Jun) in 2006. The rate of nonfarm hiring SA stood at 4.0 in Feb 2021 and at 3.3 NSA in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.

clip_image006

Chart I-7, US, Rate Total Nonfarm Hiring, Month SA 2001-2021

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/jlt/

There is only milder improvement in total private hiring shown in Chart I-8. Hiring private (HP) rose in 2010 with stability and renewed increase in 2011 followed by almost stationary series in 2012. The number of private hiring seasonally adjusted fell from 4159 thousand in Sep 2011 to 4062 in Dec 2011 or by 2.3 percent, increasing to 4172 in Jan 2012 or increase by 0.3 percent relative to the level in Sep 2011. Private hiring fell to 4022 in Sep 2012 or lower by 3.3 percent relative to Sep 2011, moving to 4162 in Dec 2012 for decrease of 0.2 percent relative to 4172 in Jan 2012. The number of private hiring not seasonally adjusted fell from 4670 in Jun 2011 to 2949 in Dec 2011 or by 36.9 percent, reaching 3990 in Jan 2012 or decline of 14.6 percent relative to Jun 2011 and moving to 3030 in Dec 2012 or 35.6 percent lower relative to 4708 in Jun 2012. Hires not seasonally adjusted fell from 4791 in Jun 2013 to 3168 in Dec 2013, or 33.9 percent. The level of private hiring NSA fell from 5199 in Jun 2014 to 3620 in Dec 2014 or 30.4 percent. The level of private hiring fell from 5449 in Jun 2015 to 3914 in Dec 2015 or 28.2 percent. The level of private hiring not seasonally adjusted fell from 5608 in Jun 2016 to 3789 in Dec 2016 or 32.4 percent. The level of private hiring not seasonally adjusted fell from 6025 in Jun 2017 to 3839 in Dec 2017 or 36.3 percent. The level of private hiring not seasonally adjusted fell from 6132 in Jun 2018 to 4097 in Dec 2018 or 33.2 percent. The level of private hiring not seasonally adjusted fell from 6144 in Jun 2019 to 4250 in Dec 2019 or 30.8 percent. The level of private hiring not seasonally adjusted fell from 8192 in Jun 2020 to 3858 in Dec 2020 or 52.9 percent. Companies reduce hiring in the latter part of the year that explains the high seasonality in year-end employment data. For example, NSA private hiring fell from 5716 in Jun 2006 to 3652 in Dec 2006 or by 36.1 percent. Private hiring NSA data are useful in showing the huge declines from the period before the global recession. Hiring in the nonfarm sector (HNF) has increased from 64.873 million in 2006 to 69.984 million in 2019 or by 5.111 million while hiring in the private sector (HP) has increased from 60.540 million in 2006 to 65.564 million in 2019 or by 5.024 million, as shown in Table I-1. The ratio of nonfarm hiring to employment (RNF) has fallen from 47.5 in 2005 to 46.4 in 2019 and in the private sector (RHP) from 53.2 in 2005 to 51.1 in 2019. Hiring did not recover from the global recession after 2007 as in previous cyclical expansions because of the low rate of economic growth in the cyclical expansion. The civilian noninstitutional population or those in condition to work increased from 228.815 million in 2006 to 259.175 million in 2019 or by 30.360 million. Hiring has not recovered prerecession levels while needs of hiring multiplied because of growth of population by more than 30 million. Private hiring of 60.450 million in 2006 was equivalent to 26.4 percent of the civilian noninstitutional population of 228.815, or those in condition of working, increasing to 65.564 million in 2019 or 25.3 percent of the civilian noninstitutional population of 259.175 million in 2019. The percentage of hiring in civilian noninstitutional population of 26.4 percent in 2006 would correspond to 68.422 million of hiring in 2019 (0.264x259.175), which would be 2.858 million higher than actual 65.564 million in 2019. There were wide oscillations in employment and hiring with high levels of unemployment in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Nonfarm hiring increased from 69.984 million in 2019 to 73.094 million in 2020 while the rate increased from 46.4 to 51.4. Private hiring increased from 65,564 million in 2019 to 68.899 million in 2020 while the rate increased from 51.1 in 2019 to 57.3 in 2020.

clip_image007

Chart I-8, US, Total Private Hiring Month SA 2001-2021

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/jlt/

Chart I-9 shows similar behavior in the rate of private hiring. The rate in 2011 in monthly SA data did not rise significantly above the peak in 2010. The rate seasonally adjusted decreased from 3.8 in Sep 2011 to 3.7 in Dec 2011 and reached 3.7 in Dec 2012 and 3.7 in Dec 2013. The rate not seasonally adjusted (NSA) fell from 3.9 in Sep 2011 to 2.6 in Dec 2011, increasing to 3.9 in Oct 2012 but falling to 2.7 in Dec 2012 and 3.5 in Mar 2013. The NSA rate of private hiring fell from 4.9 in Jul 2006 to 3.5 in Aug 2009 but recovery was insufficient to only 3.9 in Aug 2012, 2.7 in Dec 2012 and 2.7 in Dec 2013. The NSA rate increased to 3.2 in Dec 2015 and 3.1 in Dec 2016, 3.1 in Dec 2017, 3.2 in Dec 2018, 3.3 in Dec 2019 and 3.2 in Dec 2020.

clip_image007[1]

Chart I-9, US, Rate Total Private Hiring Month SA 2001-2021

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/jlt/

The JOLTS report of the Bureau of Labor Statistics also provides total nonfarm job openings (TNF JOB), TNF JOB rate and TNF LD (layoffs and discharges) shown in Table I-4 for the month of Jan from 2001 to 2021. The final column provides annual TNF LD for the years from 2001 to 2021. Nonfarm job openings (TNF JOB) increased from 4455 in Feb 2007 to 7151 in Feb 2020 or by 60.5 percent while the rate increased from 3.2 to 4.8. There is improvement from 6701 in Feb 2020 to 7151 in Feb 2021 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. This was mediocre performance because the civilian noninstitutional population of the US, or those in condition of working rose from 230.834 million in Feb 2007 to 260.918 million in Feb 2021, by 30.084 million or 13.0 percent. Nonfarm layoffs and discharges (TNF LD) increased from 1540 thousand in Feb 2006 to 2134 thousand in Feb 2009 or 38.6 percent. The annual data show layoffs and discharges rising from 22.267 million in 2006 to 27.434 million in 2009 or by 23.2 percent. Business pruned payroll jobs to survive the global recession but there has not been sufficient hiring because of the low rate of GDP growth. Long-term economic performance in the United States consisted of trend growth of GDP at 3 percent per year and of per capita GDP at 2 percent per year as measured for 1870 to 2010 by Robert E Lucas (2011May). The economy returned to trend growth after adverse events such as wars and recessions. The key characteristic of adversities such as recessions was much higher rates of growth in expansion periods that permitted the economy to recover output, income and employment losses that occurred during the contractions. Over the business cycle, the economy compensated the losses of contractions with higher growth in expansions to maintain trend growth of GDP of 3 percent and of GDP per capita of 2 percent. The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Layoffs and discharges decreased from 1549 thousand in Feb 2020 to 1377 thousand in Feb 2020 or by 11.1 percent in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.

Table I-4, US, Total Nonfarm Job Openings and Total Nonfarm Layoffs and Discharges, Thousands NSA

 

TNF JOB

TNF JOB
Rate

TNF LD

TNF LD
Annual

Feb 2001

4844

3.6

1495

24971

Feb 2002

3222

2.4

1617

23621

Feb 2003

3026

2.3

1637

24353

Feb 2004

3330

2.5

1631

23701

Feb 2005

3749

2.8

1669

23495

Feb 2006

4103

3.0

1540

22267

Feb 2007

4455

3.2

1500

23556

Feb 2008

4074

2.9

1624

25443

Feb 2009

2688

2.0

2134

27434

Feb 2010

2518

1.9

1470

22562

Feb 2011

3086

2.3

1392

22134

Feb 2012

3476

2.6

1490

22023

Feb 2013

3843

2.8

1291

20959

Feb 2014

4216

3.0

1364

21147

Feb 2015

5268

3.6

1343

21779

Feb 2016

5549

3.8

1501

21240

Feb 2017

5680

3.8

1320

21585

Feb 2018

6311

4.1

1361

21804

Feb 2019

6762

4.4

1369

21851

Feb 2020

6701

4.3

1549

41018

Feb 2021

7151

4.8

1377

  

Notes: TNF JOB: Total Nonfarm Job Openings; LD: Layoffs and Discharges

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/jlt/

Chart I-10 shows monthly job openings rising from the trough in 2009 to a high in the beginning of 2010. Job openings then stabilized into 2011 but have surpassed the peak of 3153 seasonally adjusted in Apr 2010 with 3970 seasonally adjusted in Dec 2012, which is higher by 29.5 percent relative to Apr 2010 but higher by 2.4 percent relative to 3878 in Nov 2012 and lower by 0.2 percent than 3979 in Mar 2012. Nonfarm job openings (TNF JOB) increased from 4455 in Feb 2007 to 7151 in Feb 2020 or by 60.5 percent while the rate increased from 3.2 to 4.8. There is improvement from 6701 in Feb 2020 to 7151 in Feb 2021 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. This was mediocre performance because the civilian noninstitutional population of the US, or those in condition of working rose from 230.834 million in Feb 2007 to 260.918 million in Feb 2021, by 30.084 million or 13.0 percent. Nonfarm layoffs and discharges (TNF LD) increased from 1540 thousand in Feb 2006 to 2134 thousand in Feb 2009 or 38.6 percent. The annual data show layoffs and discharges rising from 22.267 million in 2006 to 27.434 million in 2009 or by 23.2 percent. Business pruned payroll jobs to survive the global recession but there has not been sufficient hiring because of the low rate of GDP growth. Long-term economic performance in the United States consisted of trend growth of GDP at 3 percent per year and of per capita GDP at 2 percent per year as measured for 1870 to 2010 by Robert E Lucas (2011May). The economy returned to trend growth after adverse events such as wars and recessions. The key characteristic of adversities such as recessions was much higher rates of growth in expansion periods that permitted the economy to recover output, income and employment losses that occurred during the contractions. Over the business cycle, the economy compensated the losses of contractions with higher growth in expansions to maintain trend growth of GDP of 3 percent and of GDP per capita of 2 percent. The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. US economic growth has been at only 1.9 percent on average in the cyclical expansion in the 46 quarters from IIIQ2009 to IVQ2020 and in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Boskin (2010Sep) measures that the US economy grew at 6.2 percent in the first four quarters and 4.5 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the second quarter of 1975; and at 7.7 percent in the first four quarters and 5.8 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the first quarter of 1983 (Professor Michael J. Boskin, Summer of Discontent, Wall Street Journal, Sep 2, 2010 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882304575465462926649950.html). There are new calculations using the revision of US GDP and personal income data since 1929 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) and the third estimate of GDP for IVQ2020 (https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2021-03/gdp4q20_3rd.pdf). The average of 7.7 percent in the first four quarters of major cyclical expansions is in contrast with the rate of growth in the first four quarters of the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010 of only 2.8 percent obtained by dividing GDP of $15,557.3 billion in IIQ2010 by GDP of $15,134.1 billion in IIQ2009 {[($15,557.3/$15,134.1) -1]100 = 2.8%], or accumulating the quarter on quarter growth rates (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/03/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-43-percent-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/02/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-41-percent-in.html). The expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1986 was at the average annual growth rate of 5.7 percent, 5.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1986, 5.1 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1986, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1989, 4.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1989, 4.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1989, 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1989. 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1990, 4.4 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1990, 4.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1990, 4.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1990, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1992, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1994, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1994 and at 7.9 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/03/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-43-percent-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/02/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-41-percent-in.html). The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dates a contraction of the US from IQ1990 (Jul) to IQ1991 (Mar) (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html). The expansion lasted until another contraction beginning in IQ2001 (Mar). US GDP contracted 1.3 percent from the pre-recession peak of $8983.9 billion of chained 2009 dollars in IIIQ1990 to the trough of $8865.6 billion in IQ1991 (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IVQ2020 and in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event would have accumulated to 46.9 percent. GDP in IVQ2020 would be $23,147.0 billion (in constant dollars of 2012) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $4352.6 billion than actual $18,794.4 billion. There are more than four trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 30.0 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 17.4 percent of the effective labor force with the largest part originating in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/04/increase-in-apr-2021-of-nonfarm-payroll.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/03/increase-in-feb-2021-of-nonfarm-payroll.html). Unemployment is decreasing while employment is increasing in initial adjustment of the lockdown of economic activity in the global recession resulting from the COVID-19 event (https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-march-2021.htm). US GDP in IVQ2020 is 18.8 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $15,762.0 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $18,794.4 billion in IVQ2020 or 19.2 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.4 percent. Professor John H. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. Cochrane (2016May02) measures GDP growth in the US at average 3.5 percent per year from 1950 to 2000 and only at 1.76 percent per year from 2000 to 2015 with only at 2.0 percent annual equivalent in the current expansion. Cochrane (2016May02) proposes drastic changes in regulation and legal obstacles to private economic activity. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 3.0 percent per year from Feb 1919 to Feb 2021. Growth at 3.0 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 159.8259 in Feb 2021. The actual index NSA in Feb 2021 is 100.0959 which is 37.4 percent below trend. The underperformance of manufacturing in Mar-Aug 2020 originates partly in the earlier global recession augmented by the current global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19. Manufacturing grew at the average annual rate of 3.3 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2006. Growth at 3.3 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 166.0649 in Feb 2021. The actual index NSA in Feb 2021 is 100.0959, which is 39.7 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 1.7 percent between Dec 1986 and Feb 2021. Using trend growth of 1.7 percent per year, the index would increase to 135.2123 in Feb 2021. The output of manufacturing at 100.0959 in Feb 2021 is 26.0 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Using the NAICS (North American Industry Classification System), manufacturing output fell from the high of 110.5147 in Jun 2007 to the low of 86.3800 in Apr 2009 or 21.8 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased from 86.3800 in Apr 2009 to 101.6996 in Feb 2021 or 17.7 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased at the annual equivalent rate of 3.5 percent from Dec 1986 to Dec 2006. Growth at 3.5 percent would increase the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 167.7988 in Feb 2021. The NAICS index at 101.6996 in Feb 2021 is 39.4 below trend. The NAICS manufacturing output index grew at 1.7 percent annual equivalent from Dec 1999 to Dec 2006. Growth at 1.7 percent would raise the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 133.1884 in Feb 2021. The NAICS index at 101.6996 in Feb 2021 is 23.6 percent below trend under this alternative calculation.

clip_image008

Chart I-10, US Job Openings, Thousands NSA, 2001-2021

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/jlt/

The rate of job openings in Chart I-11 shows similar behavior. The rate seasonally adjusted increased from 2.3 in Jan 2011 to 2.8 in Dec 2011, 2.9 in Dec 2012, 2.9 in Dec 2013 and 3.5 in Dec 2014. The rate seasonally adjusted stood at 3.9 in Dec 2015 and 3.9 in Dec 2016. The rate seasonally adjusted reached 4.1 in Dec 2017 and 4.7 in Dec 2018. The rate not seasonally adjusted reached 4.2 in Dec 2019. The rate SA stood at 4.5 in Dec 2020 in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The rate not seasonally adjusted rose from the high of 2.6 in Apr 2010 to 3.1 in Apr 2013, easing to 2.5 in Dec 2013. The rate of job openings NSA fell from 3.4 in Jul 2007 to 1.7 in Nov 2009 and 1.6 in Dec 2009, recovering to 3.4 in Dec 2015. The rate of job opening NSA stood at 3.5 in Dec 2016, reaching 3.7 in Dec 2017 and 4.3 in Dec 2018. The rate of job openings NSA was 3.8 in Dec 2019. The rate of job openings NSA was 4.2 in Nov 2020, 4.0 in Dec 2020 and 4.8 in Feb 2021.

clip_image009

Chart I-11, US, Rate of Job Openings, NSA, 2001-2021

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/jlt/

Total separations are in Chart I-12. Separations are lower in 2012-17 than before the global recession but hiring has not recovered. Separations increased in the final segment.

clip_image010

Chart I-12, US, Total Nonfarm Separations, Month Thousands SA, 2001-2020

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/jlt/

Chart I-12A shows total separations in the US SA. Total separations increased from 4626 thousand NSA in Feb 2020 to 15.564 thousand in Mar 2020 and 11.616 thousand NSA in Apr 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event, decreasing to 4658 thousand in May 2020, increasing 5491 in Jun 2020 and 5819 thousand in Jul 2020 and 5909 thousand in Aug 2020. Total separation eased to 5479 thousand in Sep 2020, increasing to 5508 thousand in Oct 2020 and decreasing to 5116 thousand in Nov 2020. Total separations increased to 5416 in Dec 2020. Total separations increased to 5842 thousand in Jan 2021, decreasing to 4404 in Feb 2021.

clip_image011

Chart I-12A, US, Total Nonfarm Separations, Month Thousands SA, 2001-2021

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/jlt/

clip_image012

Chart I-12B, US, Total Nonfarm Separations, Month Thousands SA, 2016-2021

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/jlt/

Chart I-13 provides annual total separations. Separations fell sharply during the global recession but hiring has not recovered relative to population growth. Total separations show renewed increase in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.

clip_image013

Chart I-13, US, Total Separations, Annual, Thousands, 2001-2020

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/jlt/

Table I-5 provides total nonfarm total separations from 2001 to 2020 Separations fell from 62.632 million in 2006 to 48.671 million in 2010 or by 13.961 million and 49.614 million in 2011 or by 13.018 million. Total separations increased from 49.614 million in 2011 to 52.564 million in 2013 or by 2.950 million and to 55.931 million in 2014 or by 6.317 million relative to 2011. Total separations increased to 59.930 million in 2015 or by 10.316 million relative to 2011. Total separations increased to 61.512 million in 2016 or 11.898 million relative to 2011. Total separations increased to 63.447 million in 2017 or 13.833 million relative to 2011.Total separations increased to 66.201 million in 2018 or 16.587 million relative to 2011. Total separations increased to 67.993 million in 2019 or 18.379 million relative to 2011. Total separations jumped to 81.493 million in 2020 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event or 31.879 million relative to 2011.

Table I-5, US, Total Nonfarm Total Separations, Thousands, 2001-2019

Year

Annual

2001

64348

2002

58719

2003

56918

2004

58459

2005

61185

2006

62632

2007

62652

2008

59882

2009

51939

2010

48671

2011

49614

2012

51093

2013

52564

2014

55931

2015

59930

2016

61512

2017

63447

2018

66201

2019

67993

2020

81493

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/jlt/

Monthly data of layoffs and discharges reach a peak in early 2009, as shown in Chart I-14. Layoffs and discharges dropped sharply with the recovery of the economy in 2010 and 2011 once employers reduced their job count to what was required for cost reductions and loss of business. Long-term economic performance in the United States consisted of trend growth of GDP at 3 percent per year and of per capita GDP at 2 percent per year as measured for 1870 to 2010 by Robert E Lucas (2011May). The economy returned to trend growth after adverse events such as wars and recessions. The key characteristic of adversities such as recessions was much higher rates of growth in expansion periods that permitted the economy to recover output, income and employment losses that occurred during the contractions. Over the business cycle, the economy compensated the losses of contractions with higher growth. Growth rates have been unusually low in the expansion of the current economic cycle.

clip_image014

Chart I-14, US, Total Nonfarm Layoffs and Discharges, Monthly Thousands SA, 2001-2020

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/jlt/

Chart I-14A shows layoffs and discharges SA. There is jump in layoffs and discharges NSA from 1549 thousand in Feb 2020 to 12704 thousand in Mar 2020 and 9160 thousand in Apr 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Layoffs and discharges decreased to 2032 thousand in May 2020, increasing to 2223 thousand in Jun 2020. Layoffs and discharges decreased to 1789 thousand in Jul 2020, decreasing to 1704 thousand in Aug 2020 and 1663 thousand in Sep 2020. Layoffs and discharges increased to 1738 thousand in Oct 2020 and 2102 thousand in Nov 2020. Layoffs and discharges eased to 2100 thousand in Dec 2020 and 2.198 thousand in Jan 2021. Layoffs and discharges decreased to 1.377 thousand in Feb 2021.

clip_image015

Chart I-14A, US, Total Nonfarm Layoffs and Discharges, Monthly Thousands SA, 2001-2021

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/jlt/

clip_image016

Chart I-14A1, US, Total Nonfarm Layoffs and Discharges, Monthly Thousands SA, 2016-2021

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/jlt/

Layoffs and discharges in Chart I-15 rose sharply to a peak in 2009. There was pronounced drop into 2010 and 2011 with mild increase into 2012 and renewed decline into 2013. There is mild increase into 2014-2015 followed by decline in 2016 and stability/decline in 2017-2019. There is sharp increase in 2020 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.

clip_image017

Chart I-15, US, Total Nonfarm Layoffs and Discharges, Annual, 2001-2020

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/jlt/

Annual layoff and discharges are in Table I-6. Layoffs and discharges increased sharply from 22.267 million in 2006 to 27.434 million in 2009 or 23.2 percent. Layoff and discharges fell to 20.959 million in 2013 or 23.6 percent relative to 2009 and increased to 21.147 million in 2014 or 0.9 percent relative to 2013. Layoffs and discharges increased to 21.779 million in 2015 or 3.0 percent relative to 2014. Layoffs and discharges fell to 21.240 in 2016 or 2.5 percent relative to 2015. Layoffs and discharges increased to 21.585 million in 2017 or 1.6 percent relative to 2016. Layoffs and discharges increased to 21.804 million in 2018 or 1.0 percent relative to 2017. Layoffs and discharges decreased to 21.851 million in 2019 or 0.2 percent. Layoffs and discharges increased to 41.018 million in 2020 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event or 87.7 percent relative to 2019.

Table I-6, US, Total Nonfarm Layoffs and Discharges, Thousands, 2001-2019

Year

Annual

2001

24971

2002

23621

2003

24353

2004

23701

2005

23495

2006

22267

2007

23556

2008

25443

2009

27434

2010

22562

2011

22134

2012

22023

2013

20959

2014

21147

2015

21779

2016

21240

2017

21585

2018

21804

2019

21851

2020

41018

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/jlt/

IA2 Labor Underutilization. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also provides alternative measures of labor underutilization shown in Table I-7. The most comprehensive measure is U6 that consists of total unemployed plus total employed part time for economic reasons plus all marginally attached workers as percent of the labor force. U6 not seasonally adjusted has moved from 8.2 percent in 2006 to 8.9 percent in Mar 2020, 22.4 percent in Apr 2020 and 20.7 percent in May 2020 in in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. U6 NSA decreased to 18.3 in Jun 2020, 16.8 in Jul 2020, 14.3 in Aug 2020 and 12.4 in Sep 2020. U6 eased to 11.6 in Oct 2020, 11.6 in Nov 2020 and 11.6 in Dec 2020. U6 increased to 12.0 in Jan 2021, decreasing to 11.6 in Feb 2021 and 10.9 in Mar 2021.

Table I-7, US, Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization NSA %

 

U1

U2

U3

U4

U5

U6

2021

            

Mar

3.7

4.0

6.2

6.5

7.2

10.9

Feb

3.6

4.4

6.6

6.9

7.7

11.6

Jan

3.4

4.8

6.8

7.2

8.0

12.0

2020

            

Dec

3.4

4.5

6.5

6.9

7.8

11.6

Nov

3.5

4.5

6.4

6.8

7.6

11.6

Oct

3.8

4.5

6.6

6.9

7.7

11.6

Sep

4.5

5.5

7.7

8.0

8.8

12.4

Aug

5.0

6.4

8.5

8.8

9.7

14.3

Jul

4.9

8.1

10.5

10.8

11.6

16.8

Jun

2.0

8.8

11.2

11.6

12.6

18.3

May

1.4

11.3

13.0

13.3

14.2

20.7

Apr

1.2

13.1

14.4

14.8

15.6

22.4

Mar

1.4

2.7

4.5

4.8

5.3

8.9

Feb

1.3

1.9

3.8

4.0

4.7

7.4

Jan

1.3

2.0

4.0

4.2

4.8

7.7

2019

            

Dec

1.1

1.7

3.4

3.5

4.1

6.7

Nov

1.2

1.6

3.3

3.5

4.0

6.5

Oct

1.3

1.4

3.3

3.5

4.1

6.5

Sep

1.3

1.4

3.3

3.5

4.1

6.5

Aug

1.2

1.8

3.8

4.1

4.7

7.3

Jul

1.2

1.8

4.0

4.2

4.8

7.3

Jun

1.2

1.6

3.8

4.1

4.7

7.5

May

1.3

1.4

3.4

3.6

4.2

6.7

Apr

1.4

1.5

3.3

3.6

4.2

6.9

Mar

1.5

1.9

3.9

4.2

4.7

7.5

Feb

1.5

2.0

4.1

4.3

4.9

7.7

Jan

1.4

2.3

4.4

4.7

5.3

8.8

2018

            

Dec

1.3

1.8

3.7

3.9

4.6

7.5

Nov

1.2

1.6

3.5

3.7

4.5

7.2

Oct

1.3

1.5

3.5

3.8

4.4

7.0

Sep

1.3

1.5

3.6

3.8

4.5

7.1

Aug

1.3

1.8

3.9

4.2

4.8

7.4

Jul

1.4

1.9

4.1

4.4

5.0

7.9

Jun

1.3

1.9

4.2

4.4

5.0

8.1

May

1.4

1.5

3.6

3.8

4.4

7.3

Apr

1.5

1.7

3.7

3.9

4.5

7.4

Mar

1.5

2.1

4.1

4.4

5.0

8.1

Feb

1.6

2.3

4.4

4.6

5.3

8.6

Jan

1.5

2.4

4.5

4.8

5.5

8.9

2017

            

Dec

1.4

2.1

3.9

4.2

4.9

8.0

Nov

1.5

1.8

3.9

4.2

4.8

7.7

Oct

1.5

1.8

3.9

4.2

4.8

7.6

Sep

1.6

1.9

4.1

4.3

5.0

8.0

Aug

1.7

2.2

4.5

4.8

5.4

8.6

Jul

1.6

2.2

4.6

4.9

5.5

8.9

Jun

1.5

2.1

4.5

4.8

5.4

8.9

May

1.8

1.9

4.1

4.3

5.0

8.1

Apr

1.8

2.1

4.1

4.4

5.0

8.1

Mar

1.9

2.4

4.6

4.8

5.5

8.9

Feb

1.9

2.6

4.9

5.3

6.0

9.5

Jan

2.0

2.7

5.1

5.5

6.2

10.1

2016

            

Dec

1.9

2.3

4.5

4.8

5.5

9.1

Nov

1.8

2.1

4.4

4.8

5.6

9.0

Oct

1.9

2.1

4.7

5.0

5.7

9.2

Sep

1.9

2.2

4.8

5.1

5.9

9.3

Aug

1.8

2.4

5.0

5.3

6.0

9.7

Jul

1.9

2.4

5.1

5.5

6.3

10.1

Jun

1.9

2.3

5.1

5.4

6.1

9.9

May

2.0

2.1

4.5

4.9

5.6

9.4

Apr

2.2

2.3

4.7

5.0

5.7

9.3

Mar

2.3

2.6

5.1

5.5

6.1

9.9

Feb

2.2

2.7

5.2

5.6

6.3

10.1

Jan

2.1

2.7

5.3

5.7

6.5

10.5

2015

            

Dec

2.1

2.4

4.8

5.2

5.9

9.8

Nov

2.1

2.3

4.8

5.2

5.8

9.6

Oct

2.1

2.3

4.8

5.2

6.0

9.5

Sep

2.0

2.2

4.9

5.3

6.0

9.6

Aug

2.1

2.5

5.2

5.6

6.3

10.3

Jul

2.0

2.7

5.6

6.0

6.7

10.7

Jun

2.1

2.5

5.5

5.8

6.6

10.8

May

2.4

2.5

5.3

5.6

6.4

10.4

Apr

2.4

2.5

5.1

5.5

6.4

10.4

Mar

2.6

2.9

5.6

6.0

6.8

11.0

Feb

2.7

3.0

5.8

6.3

7.1

11.4

Jan

2.7

3.1

6.1

6.5

7.4

12.0

2014

            

Dec

2.5

2.8

5.4

5.8

6.7

11.1

Nov

2.7

2.7

5.5

5.9

6.8

11.0

Oct

2.7

2.6

5.5

6.0

6.8

11.1

Sep

2.7

2.7

5.7

6.2

7.1

11.3

Aug

2.8

3.0

6.3

6.7

7.5

12.0

Jul

2.8

3.1

6.5

7.0

7.8

12.6

Jun

2.8

3.0

6.3

6.7

7.5

12.4

May

3.1

3.0

6.1

6.5

7.3

11.7

Apr

3.3

3.2

5.9

6.3

7.2

11.8

Mar

3.7

3.7

6.8

7.2

8.1

12.8

Feb

3.6

3.9

7.0

7.5

8.4

13.1

Jan

3.5

4.0

7.0

7.5

8.6

13.5

2013

            

Dec

3.5

3.5

6.5

7.0

7.9

13.0

Nov

3.7

3.5

6.6

7.1

7.9

12.7

Oct

3.7

3.6

7.0

7.4

8.3

13.2

Sep

3.7

3.5

7.0

7.5

8.4

13.1

Aug

3.7

3.8

7.3

7.9

8.7

13.6

Jul

3.7

3.8

7.7

8.3

9.1

14.3

Jun

3.9

3.8

7.8

8.4

9.3

14.6

May

4.1

3.7

7.3

7.7

8.5

13.4

Apr

4.3

3.9

7.1

7.6

8.5

13.4

Mar

4.3

4.3

7.6

8.1

9.0

13.9

Feb

4.3

4.6

8.1

8.6

9.6

14.9

Jan

4.3

4.9

8.5

9.0

9.9

15.4

2012

            

Dec

4.2

4.3

7.6

8.3

9.2

14.4

Nov

4.2

3.9

7.4

7.9

8.8

13.9

Oct

4.3

3.9

7.5

8.0

9.0

13.9

Sep

4.2

4.0

7.6

8.0

9.0

14.2

Aug

4.3

4.4

8.2

8.7

9.7

14.6

Jul

4.3

4.6

8.6

9.1

10.0

15.2

Jun

4.5

4.4

8.4

8.9

9.9

15.1

May

4.7

4.3

7.9

8.4

9.3

14.3

Apr

4.8

4.3

7.7

8.3

9.1

14.1

Mar

4.9

4.8

8.4

8.9

9.7

14.8

Feb

4.9

5.1

8.7

9.3

10.2

15.6

Jan

4.9

5.4

8.8

9.4

10.5

16.2

2011

            

Dec

4.8

5.0

8.3

8.8

9.8

15.2

Nov

4.9

4.7

8.2

8.9

9.7

15.0

Oct 

5.0

4.8

8.5

9.1

10.0

15.3

Sep

5.2

5.0

8.8

9.4

10.2

15.7

Aug

5.2

5.1

9.1

9.6

10.6

16.1

Jul

5.2

5.2

9.3

10.0

10.9

16.3

Jun

5.1

5.1

9.3

9.9

10.9

16.4

May

5.5

5.1

8.7

9.2

10.0

15.4

Apr

5.5

5.2

8.7

9.2

10.1

15.5

Mar

5.7

5.8

9.2

9.7

10.6

16.2

Feb

5.6

6.0

9.5

10.1

11.1

16.7

Jan

5.6

6.2

9.8

10.4

11.4

17.3

Dec 2010

5.4

5.9

9.1

9.9

10.7

16.6

Annual

            

2020

2.8

6.1

8.1

8.4

9.2

13.6

2019

1.3

1.7

3.7

3.9

4.5

7.2

2018

1.4

1.8

3.9

4.1

4.8

7.7

2017

1.7

2.1

4.4

4.6

5.3

8.5

2016

2.0

2.3

4.9

5.2

5.9

9.6

2015

2.3

2.6

5.3

5.7

6.4

10.4

2014

3.0

3.1

6.2

6.6

7.5

12.0

2013

3.9

3.9

7.4

7.9

8.8

13.8

2012

4.5

4.4

8.1

8.6

9.5

14.7

2011

5.3

5.3

8.9

9.5

10.4

15.9

2010

5.7

6.0

9.6

10.3

11.1

16.7

2009

4.7

5.9

9.3

9.7

10.5

16.2

2008

2.1

3.1

5.8

6.1

6.8

10.5

2007

1.5

2.3

4.6

4.9

5.5

8.3

2006

1.5

2.2

4.6

4.9

5.5

8.2

2005

1.8

2.5

5.1

5.4

6.1

8.9

2004

2.1

2.8

5.5

5.8

6.5

9.6

2003

2.3

3.3

6.0

6.3

7.0

10.1

2002

2.0

3.2

5.8

6.0

6.7

9.6

2001

1.2

2.4

4.7

4.9

5.6

8.1

2000

0.9

1.8

4.0

4.2

4.8

7.0

Note: LF: labor force; U1, persons unemployed 15 weeks % LF; U2, job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs %LF; U3, total unemployed % LF; U4, total unemployed plus discouraged workers, plus all other marginally attached workers; % LF plus discouraged workers; U5, total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other marginally attached workers % LF plus all marginally attached workers; U6, total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons % LF plus all marginally attached workers

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/

Monthly seasonally adjusted measures of labor underutilization are provided in Table I-8. U6 climbed from 16.1 percent in Aug 2011 to 16.4 percent in Sep 2011 and then fell to 14.6 percent in Mar 2012, reaching 8.8 percent in Mar 2020, 22.9 percent in Apr 2020 and 21.2 percent in May 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Unemployment is an incomplete measure of the stress in US job markets. U6 SA decreased to 18.0 in Jun 2020, 16.5 in Jul 2020, 14.2 in Aug 2020 and 12.8 in Sep 2020. U6 decreased to 12.1 in Oct 2020 and 12.0 in Nov 2020. U6 decreased to 11.7 in Dec 2020, 11.1 in Jan 2021, 11.1 in Feb 2021 and 11.1 percent in Mar 2021. A different calculation in this blog is provided by using the participation rate in the labor force before the global recession. This calculation shows 30.0 million in job stress of unemployment/underemployment in Mar 2021, not seasonally adjusted, corresponding to 17.4 percent of the labor force (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/04/increase-in-apr-2021-of-nonfarm-payroll.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/03/increase-in-feb-2021-of-nonfarm-payroll.html).

Table I-8, US, Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization SA %

 

U1

U2

U3

U4

U5

U6

Mar 2021

3.5

3.9

6.0

6.4

7.1

10.7

Feb

3.5

4.1

6.2

6.5

7.3

11.1

Jan

3.4

4.4

6.3

6.7

7.4

11.1

Dec 2020

3.4

4.5

6.7

7.1

7.9

11.7

Nov

3.6

4.7

6.7

7.1

7.9

12.0

Oct

3.8

4.8

6.9

7.2

8.0

12.1

Sep

4.6

5.6

7.8

8.2

8.9

12.8

Aug

5.1

6.4

8.4

8.7

9.6

14.2

Jul

5.0

8.1

10.2

10.6

11.3

16.5

Jun

2.0

8.9

11.1

11.5

12.4

18.0

May

1.4

11.5

13.3

13.6

14.6

21.2

Apr

1.1

13.2

14.8

15.1

16.0

22.9

Mar

1.2

2.6

4.4

4.7

5.3

8.8

Feb

1.2

1.6

3.5

3.7

4.3

7.0

Jan

1.2

1.6

3.5

3.7

4.3

6.9

Dec 2019

1.2

1.6

3.6

3.7

4.3

6.8

Nov

1.3

1.7

3.6

3.8

4.3

6.9

Oct

1.3

1.7

3.6

3.8

4.3

7.0

Sep

1.3

1.5

3.5

3.7

4.3

6.9

Aug

1.3

1.7

3.7

3.9

4.6

7.2

Jul

1.3

1.7

3.6

3.8

4.5

6.9

Jun

1.3

1.7

3.6

3.9

4.5

7.2

May

1.3

1.7

3.7

3.9

4.5

7.2

Apr

1.3

1.7

3.7

3.9

4.6

7.4

Mar

1.4

1.7

3.8

4.1

4.6

7.4

Feb

1.4

1.7

3.8

4.0

4.6

7.2

Jan

1.3

1.9

4.0

4.2

4.8

8.0

Dec 2018

1.4

1.8

3.9

4.1

4.8

7.6

Nov

1.3

1.8

3.8

4.0

4.7

7.6

Oct

1.4

1.8

3.8

4.1

4.7

7.5

Sep

1.4

1.7

3.7

4.0

4.7

7.5

Aug

1.4

1.7

3.8

4.1

4.7

7.3

Jul

1.5

1.8

3.8

4.1

4.6

7.4

Jun

1.4

1.9

4.0

4.2

4.8

7.7

May

1.3

1.8

3.8

4.1

4.8

7.8

Apr

1.5

1.9

4.0

4.3

4.9

7.9

Mar

1.4

1.9

4.0

4.3

4.9

8.0

Feb

1.4

2.0

4.1

4.3

5.0

8.1

Jan

1.5

2.0

4.0

4.3

4.9

8.0

Dec 2017

1.5

2.0

4.1

4.4

5.1

8.1

Nov

1.6

2.0

4.2

4.5

5.1

8.1

Oct

1.6

2.0

4.1

4.4

5.1

8.1

Sep

1.7

2.1

4.2

4.5

5.2

8.3

Aug

1.7

2.2

4.4

4.7

5.3

8.6

Jul

1.7

2.1

4.3

4.5

5.2

8.4

Jun

1.6

2.2

4.3

4.6

5.2

8.5

May

1.7

2.1

4.4

4.6

5.3

8.6

Apr

1.7

2.3

4.5

4.7

5.4

8.7

Mar

1.7

2.2

4.4

4.7

5.4

8.8

Feb

1.8

2.3

4.6

4.9

5.6

9.1

Jan

1.9

2.3

4.7

5.0

5.6

9.2

Dec 2016

1.9

2.3

4.7

5.0

5.7

9.2

Nov

1.9

2.2

4.7

5.1

5.9

9.4

Oct

2.0

2.3

4.9

5.2

5.9

9.6

Sep

2.0

2.4

5.0

5.3

6.1

9.7

Aug

1.9

2.3

4.9

5.2

5.9

9.6

Jul

2.0

2.3

4.8

5.1

5.9

9.6

Jun

2.0

2.4

4.9

5.2

5.9

9.5

May

1.9

2.4

4.8

5.2

5.9

9.9

Apr

2.1

2.5

5.1

5.4

6.1

9.9

Mar

2.1

2.4

5.0

5.4

6.1

9.8

Feb

2.1

2.3

4.9

5.2

5.9

9.6

Jan

2.0

2.2

4.8

5.2

6.0

9.7

Dec 2015

2.1

2.4

5.0

5.4

6.1

9.9

Nov

2.1

2.5

5.1

5.4

6.1

10.0

Oct

2.1

2.5

5.0

5.4

6.2

9.8

Sep

2.1

2.5

5.0

5.4

6.2

10.0

Aug

2.2

2.5

5.1

5.5

6.2

10.2

Jul

2.2

2.6

5.2

5.6

6.3

10.3

Jun

2.3

2.6

5.3

5.6

6.4

10.4

May

2.4

2.8

5.6

6.0

6.8

10.9

Apr

2.3

2.6

5.4

5.9

6.7

10.9

Mar

2.4

2.6

5.4

5.9

6.7

10.9

Feb

2.5

2.7

5.5

5.9

6.7

10.9

Jan

2.6

2.7

5.7

6.1

6.9

11.2

Dec 2014

2.6

2.8

5.6

6.0

6.9

11.2

Nov

2.7

2.9

5.8

6.2

7.1

11.4

Oct

2.7

2.8

5.7

6.2

7.1

11.5

Sep

2.8

2.9

5.9

6.4

7.2

11.7

Aug

2.9

3.0

6.1

6.6

7.4

12.0

July

3.0

3.1

6.2

6.6

7.4

12.1

Jun

3.0

3.1

6.1

6.5

7.3

12.0

May

3.1

3.2

6.3

6.8

7.7

12.3

Apr

3.2

3.3

6.2

6.7

7.6

12.3

Mar

3.5

3.4

6.7

7.1

8.0

12.7

Feb

3.5

3.5

6.7

7.1

8.0

12.6

Jan

3.4

3.4

6.6

7.0

8.0

12.6

Dec 2013

3.6

3.5

6.7

7.2

8.1

13.1

Nov

3.7

3.7

6.9

7.4

8.2

13.1

Oct

3.7

4.0

7.2

7.7

8.6

13.6

Sep

3.8

3.8

7.2

7.8

8.6

13.5

Aug

3.8

3.8

7.2

7.8

8.6

13.6

Jul

3.9

3.8

7.3

7.8

8.7

13.8

Jun

4.0

3.9

7.5

8.2

9.1

14.2

May

4.1

3.9

7.5

8.0

8.8

13.9

Apr

4.1

4.1

7.6

8.1

9.0

14.0

Mar

4.1

4.0

7.5

8.0

9.0

13.9

Feb

4.2

4.2

7.7

8.2

9.2

14.3

Jan

4.2

4.3

8.0

8.5

9.3

14.5

Dec 2012

4.3

4.2

7.9

8.5

9.4

14.4

Nov

4.2

4.2

7.7

8.3

9.2

14.4

Oct

4.4

4.2

7.8

8.3

9.2

14.4

Sep

4.4

4.2

7.8

8.3

9.3

14.8

Aug

4.5

4.4

8.1

8.6

9.6

14.6

Jul

4.5

4.6

8.2

8.6

9.6

14.7

Jun

4.7

4.6

8.2

8.7

9.6

14.7

May

4.6

4.5

8.2

8.7

9.7

14.8

Apr

4.6

4.4

8.2

8.7

9.6

14.7

Mar

4.6

4.5

8.2

8.7

9.6

14.6

Feb

4.7

4.6

8.3

8.9

9.8

15.0

Jan

4.8

4.7

8.3

8.9

9.8

15.1

Dec 2011

4.9

4.9

8.5

9.1

10.0

15.2

Nov

5.0

5.0

8.6

9.3

10.2

15.6

Oct

5.1

5.1

8.8

9.4

10.3

15.8

Sep

5.4

5.2

9.0

9.7

10.5

16.4

Aug

5.4

5.2

9.0

9.6

10.5

16.1

Jul

5.3

5.3

9.0

9.6

10.6

15.9

Jun

5.3

5.3

9.1

9.7

10.7

16.1

May

5.3

5.4

9.0

9.6

10.4

15.9

Apr

5.2

5.4

9.1

9.7

10.6

16.1

Mar

5.3

5.4

9.0

9.5

10.4

16.0

Feb

5.3

5.5

9.0

9.6

10.6

16.0

Jan

5.5

5.5

9.1

9.7

10.6

16.1

Note: LF: labor force; U1, persons unemployed 15 weeks % LF; U2, job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs %LF; U3, total unemployed % LF; U4, total unemployed plus discouraged workers, plus all other marginally attached workers; % LF plus discouraged workers; U5, total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other marginally attached workers % LF plus all marginally attached workers; U6, total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons % LF plus all marginally attached workers

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/

Chart I-16 provides U6 monthly from 2001 to 2020. There was steep climb from 2007 into 2009 and then this measure of unemployment and underemployment stabilized at that high level but declined into 2012. The low of U6 SA was 8.0 percent in Mar 2007 and the peak was 17.1 percent in Apr 2010. The low NSA was 7.6 percent in Oct 2006 and the peak was 18.0 percent in Jan 2010. The rate of U6 jumped to 22.9 percent in Apr 2020 and 21.2 in May 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. U6 SA decreased to 18.0 percent in Jun 2020, 16.5 percent in Jul 2020, 14.2 percent in Aug 2020 and 12.8 percent in Sep 2020. U6 SA decreased to 12.1 percent in Oct 2020 and 12.0 in Nov 2020. U6 SA decreased to 11.7 in Dec 2020, 11.1 in Jan 2021 and 11.1 in Feb 2021. U6 SA decreased to 10.7 in Mar 2021.

clip_image018

Chart I-16, US, U6, total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed Part-Time for Economic Reasons, Month, SA, 2001-2021

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/data/

Chart I-17 provides the number employed part-time for economic reasons or who cannot find full-time employment. There are sharp declines at the end of 2009, 2010 and 2011 but an increase in 2012 followed by relative decline into 2018-2020 and recent increase/stability. The number employed part-time for economic reasons jumped to 10.899 million SA in Apr 2020 and 10.633 million in May 2020 and 10.684 million NSA in Apr 2020 and 10.429 million in May 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The number employed part-time for economic reasons reached 5.826 million SA in Mar 2021 and 5.913 million NSA.

clip_image019

Chart I-17, US, Working Part-time for Economic Reasons

Thousands, Month SA 2001-2021

Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/data/

ICA3 Fifteen Million Fewer Full-time Jobs. There is strong seasonality in US labor markets around the end of the year.

  • Seasonally adjusted part-time for economic reasons. The number employed part-time for economic reasons because they could not find full-time employment fell from 9.166 million in Sep 2011 to 7.775 million in Mar 2012, seasonally adjusted, or decline of 1.391 million in six months, as shown in Table I-9. The number employed part-time for economic reasons rebounded to 8.671 million in Sep 2012 for increase of 697,000 in one month from Aug to Sep 2012. The number employed part-time for economic reasons declined to 8.203 million in Oct 2012 or by 468,000 again in one month, further declining to 8.166 million in Nov 2012 for another major one-month decline of 37,000 and 7.943 million in Dec 2012 or fewer 223,000 in just one month. The number employed part-time for economic reasons increased to 8.151 million in Jan 2013 or 208,000 more than in Dec 2012 and to 8.178 million in Feb 2013, declining to 7.937 million in May 2013 but increasing to 8.103 million in Jun 2013. The number employed part-time for economic reasons fell to 7.816 million in Aug 2013 for decline of 283,000 in one month from 8.099 million in Jul 2013. The number employed part-time for economic reasons decreased 52,000 from 7.816 million in Aug 2013 to 7.764 million in Sep 2013. The number part-time for economic reasons rose to 7.936 million in Oct 2013, falling by 218,000 to 7.718 million in Nov 2013. The number part-time for economic reasons increased to 7.827 million in Dec 2013, decreasing to 7.296 million in Jan 2014. The number employed part-time for economic reasons increased from 7.296 million in Jan 2014 to 7.299 million in Feb 2014. The number employed part-time for economic reasons increased to 7.435 million in Mar 2014 and 7.509 million in Apr 2014. The number employed part-time for economic reasons fell to 7.254 million in May 2014, increasing to 7.422 million in Jun 2014. The level employed part-time for economic reasons fell to 7.402 million in Jul 2014 and 7.177 million in Aug 2014. The level employed part-time for economic reasons fell to 7.020 million in Sep 2014, 7.025 million in Oct 2014 and 6.898 million in Nov 2014. The level employed part-time for economic reasons fell to 6.856 million in Dec 2014, decreasing to 6.808 million in Jan 2015. The level employed part-time for economic reasons fell to 6.665 million in Feb 2015, decreasing to 6.633 million in Mar 2015. The level of employed part-time for economic reasons fell to 6.611 million in Apr 2015, increasing to 6.634 million in May 2015. The level employed part-time for economic reasons fell to 6.388 million in Jun 2015 and 6.253 million in Jul 2015. The level employed part-time for economic reasons increased to 6.418 million in Aug 2015, declining to 6.042 million in Sep 2015. The level employed part-time for economic reasons fell to 5.813 million in Oct 2015, increasing to 6.170 million in Nov 2015. The level of part-time for economic reasons fell to 6.075 million in Dec 2015, decreasing to 5.937 million in Jan 2016. The level employed part-time for economic reasons eased to 5.938 million in Feb 2016 and increased to 6.057 million in Mar 2016. The level employed part-time for economic reasons fell to 6.011 million in Apr 2016 and increased to 6.488 million in May 2016. The level of part-time for economic reasons fell to 5.791 million in Jun 2016, increasing to 5.950 million in Jul 2016. The level of part-time for economic reasons increased to 6.033 million in Aug 2016, decreasing to 5.882 million in Sep 2016. The level of part-time for economic reasons reached 5.949 million in Oct 2016, decreasing to 5.685 million in Nov 2016 and 5.607 million in Dec 2016. The level of part-time for economic reasons increased to 5.766 million in Jan 2017, decreasing to 5.598 million in Feb 2017. The level of part-time for economic reasons fell to 5.469 million in Mar 2017 and fell to 5.288 million in Apr 2017, decreasing to 5.279 million in May 2017. The level of part-time for economic reasons increased to 5.282 million in Jun 2017, easing to 5.269 million in Jul 2017 and 5.262 million in Aug 2017. The level of part-time for economic reasons fell to 5.162 million in Sep 2017, decreasing to 4.863 million in Oct 2017 and decreasing to 4.804 million in Nov 2017. The level of part-time for economic reasons increased to 4.965 million in Dec 2017, increasing to 5.018 million in Jan 2018 and increasing to 5.153 million in Feb 2018. The level of part-time for economic reasons fell to 4.993 million in Mar 2018, decreasing to 4.955 million in Apr 2018. The level of part-time for economic reasons eased to 4.964 million in May 2018 and to 4.741 million in Jun 2018. The level of part-time for economic reasons decreased to 4.573 million in Jul 2018, decreasing to 4.362 million in Aug 2018. The level of part-time for economic reasons increased to 4.651 million in Sep 2018, decreasing to 4.567 million in Oct 2018. The level of part-time for economic reasons increased to 4.715 million in Nov 2018, decreasing to 4.652 million in Dec 2018. The level of part-time for economic reasons increased to 5.183 million in Jan 2019, decreasing to 4.373 million in Feb 2019. The level of part-time for economic reasons increased to 4.530 million in Mar 2019, increasing to 4.700 million in Apr 2019. The level of part-time for economic reasons decreased to 4.372 million in May 2019, decreasing to 4.319 million in Jun 2019. The level part-time for economic reasons fell to 3.923 million in Jul 2019, increasing to 4.355 million in Aug 2019. The level part-time for economic reasons decreased to 4.329 million in Sep 2019 and increased to 4.373 million in Oct 2019. The level of part-time for economic reasons decreased to 4.266 million in Nov 2019 and decreased to 4.172 million in Dec 2019. The level of part-time for economic reasons increased to 4.269 million in Jan 2020, increasing to 4.398 million in Feb 2020. The level of part-time for economic reasons increased to 5.787 million in Mar 2020 and increased to 10.899 million in Apr 2020. The level of part-time for economic reasons decreased to 10.633 million in May 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of part-time for economic reasons decreased to 9.038 million in Jun 2020, decreasing to 8.400 million in Jul 2020. The level of part-time for economic reasons decreased to 7.533 million in Aug 2020, decreasing to 6.283 million in Sep 2020. The level of part-time for economic reasons increased to 6.668 million in Oct 2020, decreasing to 6.641 million in Nov 2020 and 6.170 million in Dec 2020. The level of part-time for economic reasons decreased to 5.954 million in Jan 2021, increasing to 6.088 million in Feb 2021. The level of part-time for economic reasons decreased to 5.826 million in Mar 2021.
  • Seasonally adjusted full-time. The number employed full-time increased from 112.923 million in Oct 2011 to 115.024 million in Mar 2012 or 2.101 million but then fell to 114.233 million in May 2012 or 0.791 million fewer full-time employed than in Mar 2012. The number employed full-time increased from 114.736 million in Aug 2012 to 115.570 million in Oct 2012 or increase of 0.834 million full-time jobs in two months and further to 115.563 million in Jan 2013 or increase of 0.827 million more full-time jobs in five months from Aug 2012 to Jan 2013. The number of full time jobs decreased slightly to 115.695 million in Feb 2013, increasing to 116.240 million in May 2013 and 116.166 million in Jun 2013. Then number of full-time jobs increased to 116.201 million in Jul 2013, 116.417 million in Aug 2013 and 116.846 million in Sep 2013. The number of full-time jobs fell to 116.352 million in Oct 2013 and increased to 117.078 in Nov 2013. The level of full-time jobs increased to 117.394 million in Dec 2013, increasing to 117.468 million in Jan 2014 and 117.734 million in Feb 2014. The level of employment full-time increased to 117.959 million in Mar 2014 and 118.433 million in Apr 2014. The level of full-time employment reached 118.791 million in May 2014, decreasing to 118.229 million in Jun 2014. The level of full-time jobs increased to 118.426 million in Jul 2014 and 118.715 million in Aug 2014. The level of full-time jobs increased to 119.306 million in Sep 2014, 119.787 million in Oct 2014 and 119.717 million in Nov 2014. The level of full-time jobs increased to 120.138 million in Dec 2014 and 120.452 million in Jan 2015. The level of full-time jobs increased to 120.658 million in Feb 2015 and 120.981 million in Mar 2015. The level of full-time jobs decreased to 120.813 million in Apr 2015, increasing to 121.514 million in May 2015 and decreasing to 121.021 million in Jun 2015. The level of full-time jobs increased to 121.642 million in Jul 2015 and increased to 122.066 million in Aug 2015, decreasing to 121.760 million in Sep 2015. The level of full-time jobs increased to 122.182 million in Oct 2015 and increased to 122.182 million in Nov 2015. The level of full-time jobs increased to 122.757 million in Dec 2015 and 123.036 million in Jan 2016. The level of full-time jobs decreased to 123.004 million in Feb 2016 and increased to 123.590 million in Mar 2016. The level of full-time jobs decreased to 123.214 million in Apr 2016 and 123.314 million in May 2016. The level of full-time jobs increased to 123.784 million in Jun 2016, increasing to 124.076 million in Jul 2016. The level of full-time jobs increased to 124.594 million in Aug 2016, decreasing to 124.237 million in Sep 2016 and 124.109 million in Oct 2016. The level of full-time jobs decreased to 124.076 million in Nov 2016 and increased 124.126 million in Dec 2016. The level of full-time jobs increased to 124.573 million in Jan 2017, increasing to 124.781 million in Feb 2017. The level of full-time jobs decreased to 125.654 million in Mar 2017 and increased to 126.042 million in Apr 2017, decreasing to 125.700 million in May 2017. The level of full-time jobs increased to 126.241 million in Jun 2017, decreasing to 126.126 million in Jul 2017 and 126.100 million in Aug 2017. The level of full-time jobs increased to 126.769 million in Sep 2017, decreasing to 126.604 million in Oct 2017. The level of full-time jobs decreased to 126.559 million in Nov 2017, decreasing to 126.480 million in Dec 2017. The level of full-time jobs increased to 126.915 million in Jan 2018, increasing to 127.488 million in Feb 2018. The level of full-time jobs increased to 127.519 million in Mar 2018, increasing to 127.906 million in Apr 2018. The level of full-time jobs increased to 128.837 million in May 2018, increasing to 128.894 million in Jun 2018. The level of full-time jobs increased to 129.272 million in Jul 2018, decreasing to 128.761 million in Aug 2018. The level of full-time jobs increased to 129.025 million in Sep 2018, increasing to 129.176 million in Oct 2018. The level of full-time jobs increased to 129.518 million in Nov 2018, increasing to 129.561 million in Dec 2018. The level of full-time jobs increased to 129.573 million in Jan 2019, increasing to 129.843 million in Feb 2019. The level of full-time jobs increased to 129.907 million in Mar 2019, decreasing to 129.834 million in Apr 2019. The level of full-time jobs increased to 129.938 million in May 2019, increasing to 130.568 million in Jun 2019. The level of full-time jobs increased to 130.851 million in Jul 2019, increasing to 130.969 million in Aug 2019. The level of full-time jobs increased to 131.271 million in Sep 2019, increasing to 131.512 million in Oct 2019. The level of full-time jobs decreased to 131.397 million in Nov 2019 and increased to 131.477 million in Dec 2019. The level of full-time jobs decreased to 130.741 million in Jan 2020. The level of full-time jobs decreased to 130.679 million in Feb 2020. The level of full-time jobs decreased to 129.059 million in Mar 2020 and decreased to 114.325 million in Apr 2020. The level of full-time jobs increased to 116.545 million in May 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of full-time jobs increased to 119.262 million in Jun 2020, increasing to 119.962 million in Jul 2020. The level of full-time jobs increased to 122.461 million in Aug 2020, increasing to 122.569 million in Sep 2020. The level of full-time jobs increased to 123.646 million in Oct 2020 and 123.292 million in Nov 2020. The level of full-time jobs increased to 124.689 million in Dec 2020. The level of full-time jobs increased to 124.990 million in Jan 2021. The level of full-time jobs decreased to 124.868 million in Feb 2021. The level of full-time jobs increased to 125.803 million in Mar 2021. Adjustments of benchmark and seasonality-factors at the turn of every year could affect comparability of labor market indicators (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/fluctuating-risk-financial-assets-in.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/job-creation-and-monetary-policy-twenty.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/financial-instability-rules.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/thirty-one-million-unemployed-or.html).
  • Not seasonally adjusted part-time for economic reasons. The number of employed part-time for economic reasons actually increased without seasonal adjustment from 8.271 million in Nov 2011 to 8.428 million in Dec 2011 or by 157,000 and then to 8.918 million in Jan 2012 or by an additional 490,000 for cumulative increase from Nov 2011 to Jan 2012 of 647,000. The level of employed part-time for economic reasons then fell from 8.918 million in Jan 2012 to 7.867 million in Mar 2012 or by 1.051 million and to 7.694 million in Apr 2012 or 1.224 million fewer relative to Jan 2012. In Aug 2012, the number employed part-time for economic reasons reached 7.842 million NSA or 148,000 more than in Apr 2012. The number employed part-time for economic reasons increased from 7.842 million in Aug 2012 to 8.110 million in Sep 2012 or by 3.4 percent. The number part-time for economic reasons fell from 8.110 million in Sep 2012 to 7.870 million in Oct 2012 or by 240.000 in one month. The number employed part-time for economic reasons NSA increased to 8.628 million in Jan 2013 or 758,000 more than in Oct 2012. The number employed part-time for economic reasons fell to 8.298 million in Feb 2013, which is lower by 330,000 relative to 8.628 million in Jan 2013 but higher by 428,000 relative to 7.870 million in Oct 2012. The number employed part time for economic reasons fell to 7.734 million in Mar 2013 or 564,000 fewer than in Feb 2013 and fell to 7.709 million in Apr 2013. The number employed part-time for economic reasons reached 7.618 million in May 2013. The number employed part-time for economic reasons jumped from 7.618 million in May 2013 to 8.440 million in Jun 2013 or 822,000 in one month. The number employed part-time for economic reasons fell to 8.324 million in Jul 2013 and 7.690 million in Aug 2013. The number employed part-time for economic reasons NSA fell to 7.522 million in Sep 2013, increasing to 7.700 million in Oct 2013. The number employed part-time for economic reasons fell to 7.563 million in Nov 2013 and increased to 7.990 million in Dec 2013. The number employed part-time for economic reasons fell to 7.771 million in Jan 2014 and 7.397 million in Feb 2014. The level of part-time for economic reasons increased to 7.455 million in Mar 2014 and fell to 7.243 million in Apr 2014. The number of part-time for economic reasons fell to 6.960 million in May 2014, increasing to 7.805 million in Jun 2014. The level of part-time for economic reasons fell to 7.665 million in Jul 2014 and 7.083 million in Aug 2014. The level of part-time for economic reasons fell to 6.711 million in Sep 2014 and increased to 6.787 million in Oct 2014. The level of part-time for economic reasons reached 6.713 million in Nov 2014 and 6.970 million in Dec 2014, increasing to 7.269 million in Jan 2015. The level of part-time for economic reasons fell to 6.772 million in Feb 2015 and 6.672 million in Mar 2015, falling to 6.356 million in Apr 2015. The level of part-time for economic reasons increased to 6.363 million in May 2015 and to 6.776 million in Jun 2015, decreasing to 6.511 million in Jul 2015. The level of part-time for economic reasons fell to 6.361 million in Aug 2015 and 5.693 million in Sep 2015. The level of part-time for economic reasons fell to 5.536 million in Oct 2015, increasing to 5.967 million in Nov 2015. The level of part-time for economic reasons increased to 6.179 million in Dec 2015, increasing to 6.406 million in Jan 2016. The level of part-time for economic reasons decreased to 6.106 million in Feb 2016 and increased to 6.138 million in Mar 2016. The level of part-time for economic reasons decreased to 5.771 million in Apr 2016 and increased to 6.238 million in May 2016. The level of part-time for economic reasons decreased to 6.119 million in Jun 2016, increasing to 6.157 million in Jul 2016. The level of part-time for economic reasons fell to 5.963 million in Aug 2016, decreasing to 5.550 million in Sep 2016. The level of part-time for economic reasons increased to 5.648 million in Oct 2016, decreasing to 5.518 million in Nov 2016 and increasing to 5.707 million in Dec 2016. The level of part-time for economic reasons increased to 6.226 million in Jan 2017, decreasing to 5.773 million in Feb 2017. The level of part-time for economic reasons fell to 5.552 million in Mar 2017, decreasing to 5.058 million in Apr 2017. The level of part-time for economic reasons fell to 5.038 million in May 2017, increasing to 5.602 million in Jun 2017. The level of part-time for economic reasons fell to 5.475 million in Jul 2017, 5.204 million in Aug 2017 and 4.818 million in Sep 2017. The level of part-time for economic reasons decreased to 4.553 million in Oct 2017, decreasing to 4.462 million in Nov 2017. The level of part-time for economic reasons increased to 5.060 million in Dec 2017, increasing to 5.474 million in Jan 2018 and decreasing to 5.331 million in Feb 2018. The level of part-time for economic reasons decreased to 5.080 million in Mar 2018, decreasing to 4.734 million in Apr 2018. The level of part-time for economic reasons increased to 4.739 million in May 2018, increasing to 5.042 million in Jun 2018. The level of part-time for economic reasons decreased to 4.766 million in Jul 2018, decreasing to 4.319 million in Aug 2018. The level of part-time for economic reasons decreased to 4.306 million in Sep 2018, decreasing to 4.246 million in Oct 2018. The level of part-time for economic reasons increased to 4.558 million in Nov 2018, increasing to 4.740 million in Dec 2018. The level of part-time for economic reasons increased to 5.640 million in Jan 2019, decreasing to 4.561 million in Feb 2019. The level of part-time for economic reasons increased to 4.621 million in Mar 2019, decreasing to 4.483 million in Apr 2019.The level of part-time for economic reasons decreased to 4.160 million in May 2019, increasing to 4.602 million in Jun 2019. The level of part-time for economic reasons decreased to 4.102 million in Jul 2019, increasing to 4.316 million in Aug 2019. The level of part-time for economic reasons decreased to 3.992 million in Sep 2019, increasing to 4.046 million in Oct 2019. The level of part-time for economic reasons increased to 4.110 million in Nov 2019, increasing to 4.247 million in Dec 2019. The level of part-time for economic reasons increased to 4.732 million in Jan 2020. The level of part-time for economic reasons decreased to 4.600 million in Feb 2020. The level of part-time for economic reasons increased to 5.879 million in Mar 2020 and increased to 10.684 million in Apr 2020. The level of part-time for economic reasons decreased to 10.429 million in May 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of part-time for economic reasons decreased to 9.306 million in Jun 2020, decreasing to 8.572 million in Jul 2020. The level of part-time for economic reasons decreased to 7.488 million in Aug 2020, decreasing to 5.955 million in Sep 2020. The level of part-time for economic reasons increased to 6.338 million in Oct 2020 and 6.492 million in Nov 2020. The level of part-time for economic reasons decreased to 6.245 million in Dec 2020. The level of part-time for economic reasons increased to 6.404 million in Jan 2021. The level of part-time for economic reasons decreased to 6.309 million in Feb 2021. The level of part-time for economic reasons decreased to 5.913 million in Mar 2021.
  • Not seasonally adjusted full-time. The number employed full time without seasonal adjustment fell from 113.138 million in Nov 2011 to 113.050 million in Dec 2011 or by 88,000 and fell further to 111.879 in Jan 2012 for cumulative decrease of 1.259 million. The number employed full-time not seasonally adjusted fell from 113.138 million in Nov 2011 to 112.587 million in Feb 2012 or by 551.000 but increased to 116.214 million in Aug 2012 or 3.076 million more full-time jobs than in Nov 2011. The number employed full-time not seasonally adjusted decreased from 116.214 million in Aug 2012 to 115.678 million in Sep 2012 for loss of 536,000 full-time jobs and rose to 116.045 million in Oct 2012 or by 367,000 full-time jobs in one month relative to Sep 2012. The number employed full-time NSA fell from 116.045 million in Oct 2012 to 115.515 million in Nov 2012 or decline of 530.000 in one month. The number employed full-time fell from 115.515 in Nov 2012 to 115.079 million in Dec 2012 or decline by 436,000 in one month. The number employed full time fell from 115.079 million in Dec 2012 to 113.868 million in Jan 2013 or decline of 1.211 million in one month. The number of full-time jobs increased to 114.191 in Feb 2012 or by 323,000 in one month and increased to 114.796 million in Mar 2013 for cumulative increase from Jan by 928,000 full-time jobs but decrease of 283,000 from Dec 2012. The number employed full time reached 117.400 million in Jun 2013 and increased to 117.688 in Jul 2013 or by 288,000. The number employed full-time reached 117.868 million in Aug 2013 for increase of 180,000 in one month relative to Jul 2013. The number employed full-time fell to 117.308 million in Sep 2013 or by 560,000. The number employed full-time fell to 116.798 million in Oct 2013 or decline of 510.000 in one month. The number employed full-time rose to 116.875 million in Nov 2013, falling to 116.661 million in Dec 2013. The number employed full-time fell to 115.744 million in Jan 2014 but increased to 116.323 million in Feb 2014. The level of full-time jobs increased to 116.985 in Mar 2014 and 118.073 million in Apr 2014. The number of full-time jobs increased to 119.179 million in May 2014, increasing to 119.472 million in Jun 2014. The level of full-time jobs increased to 119.900 million in Jul 2014. Comparisons over long periods require use of NSA data. The number with full-time jobs fell from a high of 123.219 million in Jul 2007 to 108.777 million in Jan 2010 or by 14.442 million. The number with full-time jobs in Mar 2021 is 124.840 million, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event, which is higher by 1.621 million relative to the peak of 123.219 million in Jul 2007.
  • Loss of full-time jobs. The magnitude of the stress in US labor markets is magnified by the increase in the civilian noninstitutional population of the United States from 231.958 million in Jul 2007 to 261.003 million in Mar 2021 or by 29.045 million (https://www.bls.gov/data/). The number with full-time jobs in Mar 2021 is 124.840 million, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event, which is higher by 1.621 million relative to the peak of 123.219 million in Jul 2007. The ratio of full-time jobs of 123.219 million in Jul 2007 to civilian noninstitutional population of 231.958 million was 53.1 percent. If that ratio had remained the same, there would be 138.593 million full-time jobs with population of 261.003 million in Mar 2021 (0.531 x 261.003) or 13.753 million fewer full-time jobs relative to actual 124.840 million. There appear to be around 15 million fewer full-time jobs in the US than before the global recession while population increased around 29 million. Mediocre GDP growth is the main culprit of the fractured US labor market augmented in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Long-term economic performance in the United States consisted of trend growth of GDP at 3 percent per year and of per capita GDP at 2 percent per year as measured for 1870 to 2010 by Robert E Lucas (2011May). The economy returned to trend growth after adverse events such as wars and recessions. The key characteristic of adversities such as recessions was much higher rates of growth in expansion periods that permitted the economy to recover output, income and employment losses that occurred during the contractions. Over the business cycle, the economy compensated the losses of contractions with higher growth in expansions to maintain trend growth of GDP of 3 percent and of GDP per capita of 2 percent. US economic growth has been at only 1.9 percent on average in the cyclical expansion in the 46 quarters from IIIQ2009 to IVQ2020 and in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Boskin (2010Sep) measures that the US economy grew at 6.2 percent in the first four quarters and 4.5 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the second quarter of 1975; and at 7.7 percent in the first four quarters and 5.8 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the first quarter of 1983 (Professor Michael J. Boskin, Summer of Discontent, Wall Street Journal, Sep 2, 2010 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882304575465462926649950.html). There are new calculations using the revision of US GDP and personal income data since 1929 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) and the third estimate of GDP for IVQ2020 (https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2021-03/gdp4q20_3rd.pdf). The average of 7.7 percent in the first four quarters of major cyclical expansions is in contrast with the rate of growth in the first four quarters of the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010 of only 2.8 percent obtained by dividing GDP of $15,557.3 billion in IIQ2010 by GDP of $15,134.1 billion in IIQ2009 {[($15,557.3/$15,134.1) -1]100 = 2.8%], or accumulating the quarter on quarter growth rates (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/03/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-43-percent-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/02/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-41-percent-in.html). The expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1986 was at the average annual growth rate of 5.7 percent, 5.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1986, 5.1 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1986, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1989, 4.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1989, 4.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1989, 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1989. 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1990, 4.4 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1990, 4.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1990, 4.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1990, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1992, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1994, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1994 and at 7.9 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/03/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-43-percent-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/02/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-41-percent-in.html). The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dates a contraction of the US from IQ1990 (Jul) to IQ1991 (Mar) (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html). The expansion lasted until another contraction beginning in IQ2001 (Mar). US GDP contracted 1.3 percent from the pre-recession peak of $8983.9 billion of chained 2009 dollars in IIIQ1990 to the trough of $8865.6 billion in IQ1991 (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IVQ2020 and in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event would have accumulated to 46.9 percent. GDP in IVQ2020 would be $23,147.0 billion (in constant dollars of 2012) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $4352.6 billion than actual $18,794.4 billion. There are more than four trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 30.0 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 17.4 percent of the effective labor force with the largest part originating in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/04/increase-in-apr-2021-of-nonfarm-payroll.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/03/increase-in-feb-2021-of-nonfarm-payroll.html). Unemployment is decreasing while employment is increasing in initial adjustment of the lockdown of economic activity in the global recession resulting from the COVID-19 event (https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-march-2021.htm). US GDP in IVQ2020 is 18.8 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $15,762.0 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $18,794.4 billion in IVQ2020 or 19.2 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.4 percent. Professor John H. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. Cochrane (2016May02) measures GDP growth in the US at average 3.5 percent per year from 1950 to 2000 and only at 1.76 percent per year from 2000 to 2015 with only at 2.0 percent annual equivalent in the current expansion. Cochrane (2016May02) proposes drastic changes in regulation and legal obstacles to private economic activity. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 3.0 percent per year from Feb 1919 to Feb 2021. Growth at 3.0 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 159.8259 in Feb 2021. The actual index NSA in Feb 2021 is 100.0959 which is 37.4 percent below trend. The underperformance of manufacturing in Mar-Aug 2020 originates partly in the earlier global recession augmented by the current global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19. Manufacturing grew at the average annual rate of 3.3 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2006. Growth at 3.3 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 166.0649 in Feb 2021. The actual index NSA in Feb 2021 is 100.0959, which is 39.7 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 1.7 percent between Dec 1986 and Feb 2021. Using trend growth of 1.7 percent per year, the index would increase to 135.2123 in Feb 2021. The output of manufacturing at 100.0959 in Feb 2021 is 26.0 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Using the NAICS (North American Industry Classification System), manufacturing output fell from the high of 110.5147 in Jun 2007 to the low of 86.3800 in Apr 2009 or 21.8 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased from 86.3800 in Apr 2009 to 101.6996 in Feb 2021 or 17.7 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased at the annual equivalent rate of 3.5 percent from Dec 1986 to Dec 2006. Growth at 3.5 percent would increase the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 167.7988 in Feb 2021. The NAICS index at 101.6996 in Feb 2021 is 39.4 below trend. The NAICS manufacturing output index grew at 1.7 percent annual equivalent from Dec 1999 to Dec 2006. Growth at 1.7 percent would raise the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 133.1884 in Feb 2021. The NAICS index at 101.6996 in Feb 2021 is 23.6 percent below trend under this alternative calculation.

Table I-9, US, Employed Part-time for Economic Reasons, Thousands, and Full-time, Millions

 

Part-time Thousands

Full-time Millions

Seasonally Adjusted

    

Mar 2021

5,826

125.803

Feb 2021

6,088

124.868

Jan 2021

5,954

124.990

Dec 2020

6,170

124.689

Nov 2020

6,641

124.292

Oct 2020

6,668

123.646

Sep 2020

6,283

122.569

Aug 2020

7,533

122.461

Jul 2020

8,400

119.962

Jun 2020

9,038

119.262

May 2020

10,633

116.545

Apr 2020

10,899

114.325

Mar 2020

5,787

129.059

Feb 2020

4,398

130.679

Jan 2020

4,269

130.741

Dec 2019

4,172

131.477

Nov 2019

4,266

131.397

Oct 2019

4,373

131.512

Sep 2019

4,329

131.271

Aug 2019

4,355

130.969

Jul 2019

3,923

130.851

Jun 2019

4,319

130.568

May 2019

4,372

129.938

Apr 2019

4,700

129.834

Mar 2019

4,530

129.907

Feb 2019

4,373

129.843

Jan 2019

5,183

129.573

Dec 2018

4,652

129.561

Nov 2018

4,715

129.518

Oct 2018

4,567

129.176

Sep 2018

4,651

129.025

Aug 2018

4,362

128.761

Jul 2018

4,573

129.272

Jun 2018

4,741

128.894

May 2018

4,964

128.837

Apr 2018

4,955

127.906

Mar 2018

4,993

127.519

Feb 2018

5,153

127.488

Jan 2018

5,018

126.915

Dec 2017

4,965

126.480

Nov 2017

4,804

126.559

Oct 2017

4,863

126.604

Sep 2017

5,162

126.769

Aug 2017

5,262

126.100

Jul 2017

5,269

126.126

Jun 2017

5,282

126.241

May 2017

5,279

125.700

Apr 2017

5,288

126.042

Mar 2017

5,469

125.654

Feb 2017

5,598

124.781

Jan 2017

5,766

124.573

Dec 2016

5,607

124.126

Nov 2016

5,685

124.076

Oct 2016

5,949

124.109

Sep 2016

5,882

124.237

Aug 2016

6,033

124.594

Jul 2016

5,950

124.076

Jun 2016

5,791

123.784

May 2016

6,488

123.314

Apr 2016

6,011

123.214

Mar 2016

6,057

123.590

Feb 2016

5,938

123.004

Jan 2016

5,937

123.036

Dec 2015

6,075

122.757

Nov 2015

6,170

122.182

Oct 2015

5,813

122.094

Sep 2015

6,042

121.760

Aug 2015

6,418

122.067

Jul 2015

6,253

121.642

Jun 2015

6,388

121.021

May 2015

6,634

121.514

Apr 2015

6,611

120.813

Mar 2015

6,633

120.981

Feb 2015

6,665

120.658

Jan 2015

6,808

120.452

Dec 2014

6,856

120.138

Nov 2014

6,898

119.717

Oct 2014

7,025

119.787

Sep 2014

7,020

119.306

Aug 2014

7,177

118.715

Jul 2014

7,402

118.426

Jun 2014

7,422

118.229

May 2014

7,254

118.791

Apr 2014

7,509

118.433

Mar 2014

7,435

117.959

Feb 2014

7,299

117.734

Jan 2014

7,296

117.468

Dec 2013

7,827

117.394

Nov 2013

7,718

117.078

Oct 2013

7,936

116.352

Sep 2013

7,764

116.846

Aug 2013

7,816

116.417

Jul 2013

8,099

116.201

Jun 2013

8,103

116.166

May 2013

7,937

116.240

Apr 2013

7,964

116.014

Mar 2013

7,722

115.808

Feb 2013

8,178

115.695

Jan 2013

8,151

115.653

Dec 2012

7,943

115.791

Nov 2012

8,166

115.655

Oct 2012

8,203

115.570

Sep 2012

8,671

115.252

Aug 2012

7,974

114.736

Jul 2012

8,082

114.575

Jun 2012

8,072

114.749

May 2012

8,101

114.233

Apr 2012

7,913

114.371

Mar 2012

7,775

115.024

Feb 2012

8,238

114.141

Jan 2012

8,305

113.755

Dec 2011

8,171

113.774

Nov 2011

8,447

113.213

Oct 2011

8,657

112.923

Sep 2011

9,166

112.544

Aug 2011

8,788

112.723

Jul 2011

8,281

112.193

Not Seasonally Adjusted

    

Mar 2021

5,913

124.840

Feb 2021

6,309

123.981

Jan 2021

6,404

123.717

Dec 2020

6,245

124.415

Nov 2020

6,492

124.325

Oct 2020

6,338

124.165

Sep 2020

5,955

122.998

Aug 2020

7,488

123.619

Jul 2020

8,572

121.198

Jun 2020

9,306

120.169

May 2020

10,429

116.620

Apr 2020

10,684

113.656

Mar 2020

5,879

127.981

Feb 2020

4,600

129.734

Jan 2020

4,732

129.379

Dec 2019

4,247

131.142

Nov 2019

4,110

131.385

Oct 2019

4,046

131.990

Sep 2019

3,992

131.704

Aug 2019

4,316

132.156

Jul 2019

4,102

132.153

Jun 2019

4,602

131.542

May 2019

4,160

130.059

Apr 2019

4,483

129.212

Mar 2019

4,621

128.819

Feb 2019

4,561

128.836

Jan 2019

5,640

128.166

Dec 2018

4,740

129.143

Nov 2018

4,558

129.464

Oct 2018

4,246

129.627

Sep 2018

4,306

129.466

Aug 2018

4,319

129.975

Jul 2018

4,766

130.644

Jun 2018

5,042

129.937

May 2018

4,739

129.014

Apr 2018

4,734

127.340

Mar 2018

5,080

126.424

Feb 2018

5,331

126.401

Jan 2018

5,474

125.435

Dec 2017

5,060

125.985

Nov 2017

4,462

126.468

Oct 2017

4,553

127.055

Sep 2017

4,818

127.235

Aug 2017

5,204

127.353

Jul 2017

5,475

127.542

Jun 2017

5,602

127.337

May 2017

5,038

125.911

Apr 2017

5,058

125.532

Mar 2017

5,552

124.566

Feb 2017

5,773

123.610

Jan 2017

6,226

123.015

Dec 2016

5,707

123.570

Nov 2016

5,518

123.960

Oct 2016

5,648

124.588

Sep 2016

5,550

124.728

Aug 2016

5,963

125.892

Jul 2016

6,157

125.507

Jun 2016

6,119

124.903

May 2016

6,238

123.548

Apr 2016

5,771

122.742

Mar 2016

6,138

122.522

Feb 2016

6,106

121.757

Jan 2016

6,406

121.411

Dec 2015

6,179

122.013

Nov 2015

5,967

121.897

Oct 2015

5,536

122.466

Sep 2015

5,693

122.303

Aug 2015

6,361

123.420

Jul 2015

6,511

123.142

Jun 2015

6,776

122.268

May 2015

6,363

121.863

Apr 2015

6,356

120.402

Mar 2015

6,672

119.981

Feb 2015

6,772

119.313

Jan 2015

7,269

118.840

Dec 2014

6,970

119.394

Nov 2014

6,713

119.441

Oct 2014

6,787

120.176

Sep 2014

6,711

119.791

Aug 2014

7,083

120.110

Jul 2014

7,665

119.900

Jun 2014

7,805

119.472

May 2014

6,960

119.179

Apr 2014

7,243

118.073

Mar 2014

7,455

116.985

Feb 2014

7,397

116.323

Jan 2014

7,771

115.774

Dec 2013

7,990

116.661

Nov 2013

7,563

116.875

Oct 2013

7,700

116.798

Sep 2013

7,522

117.308

Aug 2013

7,690

117.868

Jul 2013

8,324

117.688

Jun 2013

8,440

117.400

May 2013

7,618

116.643

Apr 2013

7,709

115.674

Mar 2013

7,734

114.796

Feb 2013

8,298

114.191

Jan 2013

8,628

113.868

Dec 2012

8,166

115.079

Nov 2012

7,994

115.515

Oct 2012

7,870

116.045

Sep 2012

8,110

115.678

Aug 2012

7,842

116.214

Jul 2012

8,316

116.131

Jun 2012

8,394

116.024

May 2012

7,837

114.634

Apr 2012

7,694

113.999

Mar 2012

7,867

113.916

Feb 2012

8,455

112.587

Jan 2012

8,918

111.879

Dec 2011

8,428

113.050

Nov 2011

8,271

113.138

Oct 2011

8,258

113.456

Sep 2011

8,541

112.980

Aug 2011

8,604

114.286

Jul 2011

8,514

113.759

Jun 2011

8,738

113.255

May 2011

8,270

112.618

Apr 2011

8,425

111.844

Mar 2011

8,737

111.186

Feb 2011

8,749

110.731

Jan 2011

9,187

110.373

Dec 2010

9,205

111.207

Nov 2010

8,670

111.348

Oct 2010

8,408

112.342

Sep 2010

8,628

112.385

Aug 2010

8,628

113.508

Jul 2010

8,737

113.974

Jun 2010

8,867

113.856

May 2010

8,513

112.809

Apr 2010

8,921

111.391

Mar 2010

9,343

109.877

Feb 2010

9,282

109.100

Jan 2010

9,290

108.777 (low)

Dec 2009

9,354 (high)

109.875

Nov 2009

8,894

111.274

Oct 2009

8,474

111.599

Sep 2009

8,255

111.991

Aug 2009

8,835

113.863

Jul 2009

9,103

114.184

Jun 2009

9,301

114.014

May 2009

8,785

113.083

Apr 2009

8,648

112.746

Mar 2009

9,305

112.215

Feb 2009

9,170

112.947

Jan 2009

8,829

113.815

Dec 2008

8,250

116.422

Nov 2008

7,135

118.432

Oct 2008

6,267

120.020

Sep 2008

5,701

120.213

Aug 2008

5,736

121.556

Jul 2008

6,054

122.378

Jun 2008

5,697

121.845

May 2008

5,096

120.809

Apr 2008

5,071

120.027

Mar 2008

5,038

119.875

Feb 2008

5,114

119.452

Jan 2008

5,340

119.332

Dec 2007

4,750

121.042

Nov 2007

4,374

121.846

Oct 2007

4,028

122.006

Sep 2007

4,137

121.728

Aug 2007

4,494

122.870

Jul 2007

4,516

123.219 (high)

Jun 2007

4,469

122.150

May 2007

4,315

120.846

Apr 2007

4,205

119.609

Mar 2007

4,384

119.640

Feb 2007

4,417

119.041

Jan 2007

4,726

119.094

Dec 2006

4,281

120.371

Nov 2006

4,054

120.507

Oct 2006

4,010

121.199

Sep 2006

3,735 (low)

120.780

Aug 2006

4,104

121.979

Jul 2006

4,450

121.951

Jun 2006

4,456

121.070

May 2006

3,968

118.925

Apr 2006

3,787

118.559

Mar 2006

4,097

117.693

Feb 2006

4,403

116.823

Jan 2006

4,597

116.395

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/

The magnitude of the stress in US labor markets is magnified by the increase in the civilian noninstitutional population of the United States from 231.958 million in Jul 2007 to 261.003 million in Mar 2021 or by 29.045 million (https://www.bls.gov/data/). The number with full-time jobs in Mar 2021 is 124.840 million, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event, which is higher by 1.621 million relative to the peak of 123.219 million in Jul 2007. The ratio of full-time jobs of 123.219 million in Jul 2007 to civilian noninstitutional population of 231.958 million was 53.1 percent. If that ratio had remained the same, there would be 138.593 million full-time jobs with population of 261.003 million in Mar 2021 (0.531 x 261.003) or 13.753 million fewer full-time jobs relative to actual 124.840 million. There appear to be around 15 million fewer full-time jobs in the US than before the global recession while population increased around 29 million. Mediocre GDP growth is the main culprit of the fractured US labor market augmented in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.

There is current interest in past theories of “secular stagnation.” Alvin H. Hansen (1939, 4, 7; see Hansen 1938, 1941; for an early critique see Simons 1942) argues:

“Not until the problem of full employment of our productive resources from the long-run, secular standpoint was upon us, were we compelled to give serious consideration to those factors and forces in our economy which tend to make business recoveries weak and anaemic (sic) and which tend to prolong and deepen the course of depressions. This is the essence of secular stagnation-sick recoveries which die in their infancy and depressions which feed on them-selves and leave a hard and seemingly immovable core of unemployment. Now the rate of population growth must necessarily play an important role in determining the character of the output; in other words, the com-position of the flow of final goods. Thus a rapidly growing population will demand a much larger per capita volume of new residential building construction than will a stationary population. A stationary population with its larger proportion of old people may perhaps demand more personal services; and the composition of consumer demand will have an important influence on the quantity of capital required. The demand for housing calls for large capital outlays, while the demand for personal services can be met without making large investment expenditures. It is therefore not unlikely that a shift from a rapidly growing population to a stationary or declining one may so alter the composition of the final flow of consumption goods that the ratio of capital to output as a whole will tend to decline.”

The argument that anemic population growth causes “secular stagnation” in the US (Hansen 1938, 1939, 1941) is as misplaced currently as in the late 1930s (for early dissent see Simons 1942). This is merely another case of theory without reality with dubious policy proposals.

Inferior performance of the US economy and labor markets, during cyclical slow growth not secular stagnation, is the critical curre nt issue of analysis and policy design.clip_image020

Chart I-20, US, Full-time Employed, Thousands, NSA, 2001-2021

Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/data/

Chart I-20A provides the noninstitutional civilian population of the United States from 2001 to 2021. There is clear trend of increase of the population while the number of full-time jobs collapsed after 2008 with insufficient recovery as shown in the preceding Chart I-20.

clip_image021

Chart I-20A, US, Noninstitutional Civilian Population, Thousands, 2001-2021

Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/data/

Chart I-20B provides number of full-time jobs in the US from 1968 to 2021. There were multiple recessions followed by expansions without contraction of full-time jobs and without recovery as during the period after 2008. The problem is specific of the current cycle and not secular.

clip_image022

Chart I-20B, US, Full-time Employed, Thousands, NSA, 1968-2021

Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/data/

Chart I-20C provides the noninstitutional civilian population of the United States from 1968 to 2021. Population expanded at a relatively constant rate of increase with the assurance of creation of full-time jobs that has been broken since 2008.

clip_image023

Chart I-20C, US, Noninstitutional Civilian Population, Thousands, 1968-2021

Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/data/

Table 9-A provides percentage change of real GDP in the United States in the 1930s, 1980s and 2000s. The recession in 1981-1982 is quite similar on its own to the 2007-2009 recession. In contrast, during the Great Depression in the four years of 1930 to 1933, GDP in constant dollars fell 26.3 percent cumulatively and fell 45.3 percent in current dollars (Pelaez and Pelaez, Financial Regulation after the Global Recession (2009a), 150-2, Pelaez and Pelaez, Globalization and the State, Vol. II (2009b), 205-7 and revisions in https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). Data are available for the 1930s only on a yearly basis. US GDP fell 4.8 percent in the two recessions (1) from IQ1980 to IIIQ1980 and (2) from III1981 to IVQ1982 and 4.0 percent cumulatively in the recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. It is instructive to compare the first years of the expansions in the 1980s and the current expansion. GDP grew at 4.6 percent in 1983, 7.2 percent in 1984, 4.2 percent in 1985, 3.5 percent in 1986, 3.5 percent in 1987, 4.2 percent in 1988 and 3.7 percent in 1989. In contrast, GDP grew 2.6 percent in 2010, 1.6 percent in 2011, 2.2 percent in 2012, 1.8 percent in 2013, 2.5 percent in 2014 and 3.1 percent in 2015. GDP grew 1.7 percent in 2016 and 2.3 percent in 2017. GDP grew 3.0 percent in 2018 and 2.2 percent in 2019. Actual annual equivalent GDP growth in the thirty-five quarters from IQ2012 to IIIQ2020 is 1.7 percent and minus 2.8 percent in the four quarters ending in IIIQ2020. GDP grew at 4.2 percent in 1985, 3.5 percent in 1986, 3.5 percent in 1987, 4.2 percent in 1988 and 3.7 percent in 1989. The forecasts of the central tendency of participants of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are in the range of 5.8 to 6.6 percent in 2021 (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20210317.pdf) with less reliable forecast of 3.0 to 3.8 percent in 2022 (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20210317.pdf). Growth of GDP in the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IVQ2020 has been at average 1.9 percent in annual equivalent with sharp contraction at 31.4 percent SAAR in IIQ2020 followed by sharp recovery at 33.4 percent in IIIQ2020 and at 4.3 percent in IVQ2020 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.

Table I-9A, US, Percentage Change of GDP in the 1930s, 1980s and 2000s, ∆%

Year

GDP ∆%

Year

GDP ∆%

Year

GDP ∆%

1930

-8.5

1980

-0.3

2000

4.1

1931

-6.4

1981

2.5

2001

1.0

1932

-12.9

1982

-1.8

2002

1.7

1933

-1.2

1983

4.6

2003

2.9

1934

10.8

1984

7.2

2004

3.8

1935

8.9

1985

4.2

2005

3.5

1936

12.9

1986

3.5

2006

2.9

1937

5.1

1987

3.5

2007

1.9

1938

-3.3

1988

4.2

2008

-0.1

1939

8.0

1989

3.7

2009

-2.5

1940

8.8

1990

1.9

2010

2.6

1941

17.7

1991

-0.1

2011

1.6

1942

18.9

1992

3.5

2012

2.2

1943

17.0

1993

2.8

2013

1.8

1944

8.0

1994

4.0

2014

2.5

1945

-1.0

1995

2.7

2015

3.1

1946

-11.6

1996

3.8

2016

1.7

1947

-1.1

1997

4.4

2017

2.3

1948

4.1

1998

4.5

2018

3.0

1949

-0.6

1999

4.8

2019

2.2

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm

Characteristics of the four cyclical contractions are in Table 9-B with the first column showing the number of quarters of contraction; the second column the cumulative percentage contraction; and the final column the average quarterly rate of contraction. There were two contractions from IQ1980 to IIIQ1980 and from IIIQ1981 to IVQ1982 separated by three quarters of expansion. The drop of output combining the declines in these two contractions is 4.8 percent, which is almost equal to the decline of 4.0 percent in the contraction from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. In contrast, during the Great Depression in the four years of 1930 to 1933, GDP in constant dollars fell 26.3 percent cumulatively and fell 45.3 percent in current dollars (Pelaez and Pelaez, Financial Regulation after the Global Recession (2009a), 150-2, Pelaez and Pelaez, Globalization and the State, Vol. II (2009b), 205-7 and revisions in https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). The comparison of the global recession after 2007 with the Great Depression is entirely misleading.

Table 9-B, US, Number of Quarters, GDP Cumulative Percentage Contraction and Average Percentage Annual Equivalent Rate in Cyclical Contractions   

 

Number of Quarters

Cumulative Percentage Contraction

Average Percentage Rate

IIQ1953 to IIQ1954

3

-2.4

-0.8

IIIQ1957 to IIQ1958

3

-3.0

-1.0

IVQ1973 to IQ1975

5

-3.1

-0.6

IQ1980 to IIIQ1980

2

-2.2

-1.1

IIIQ1981 to IVQ1982

4

-2.6

-0.65

IVQ2007 to IIQ2009

6

-4.0

-0.7

Sources: Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm

Table 9-C shows the mediocre average annual equivalent growth rate of 1.9 percent of the US economy in the forty-six quarters of the current cyclical expansion from IIIQ2009 to IVQ2020. There is sharp contraction in IIQ2020 at SAAR of minus 31.4 percent followed by sharp growth at 33.4 percent in IIIQ2020 and at 4.3 percent in IVQ2020 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. In sharp contrast, the average growth rate of GDP was:

  • 5.7 percent in the first thirteen quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1986
  • 5.3 percent in the first fifteen quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IIIQ1986
  • 5.1 percent in the first sixteen quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IVQ1986
  • 5.0 percent in the first seventeen quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1987
  • 5.0 percent in the first eighteen quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IIQ1987
  • 4.9 percent in the first nineteen quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IIIQ1987
  • 5.0 percent in the first twenty quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IVQ1987
  • 4.9 percent in the first twenty-first quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1988
  • 4.9 percent in the first twenty-two quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IIQ1988
  • 4.8 percent in the first twenty-three quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IIIQ1988
  • 4.8 percent in the first twenty-four quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IVQ1988
  • 4.8 percent in the first twenty-five quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1989
  • 4.7 percent in the first twenty-six quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IIQ1989
  • 4.6 percent in the first twenty-seven quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IIIQ1989
  • 4.5 percent in the first twenty-eight quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IVQ1989
  • 4.5 percent in the first twenty-nine quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1990
  • 4.4 percent in the first thirty quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IIQ1990
  • 4.3 percent in the first thirty-one quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IIIQ1990
  • 4.0 percent in the first thirty-two quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IVQ1990
  • 3.8 percent in the first thirty-three quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1991
  • 3.8 percent in the first thirty-four quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IIQ1991
  • 3.8 percent in the first thirty-five quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IIIQ1991
  • 3.7 percent in the thirty-six quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IVQ1991
  • 3.7 percent in the thirty-seven quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1992
  • 3.7 percent in the thirty-eight quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IIQ1992
  • 3.7 percent in the thirty-nine quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IIIQ1992
  • 3.8 percent in the forty quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IVQ1992
  • 3.7 percent in the forty-one quarters from IQ1983 to IQ1993
  • 3.6 percent in the forty-two quarters from IQ1983 to IIQ1993
  • 3.6 percent in the forty-three quarters from IQ1983 to IIIQ1993
  • 3.7 percent in the forty-four quarters from IQ1983 to IVQ1993
  • 3.7 percent in the forty-five quarters from IQ1983 to IQ1994
  • 3.7 percent in the forty-six quarters from IQ1983 to IIQ1994

The line “average first four quarters in four expansions” provides the average growth rate of 7.7 percent with 7.8 percent from IIIQ1954 to IIQ1955, 9.2 percent from IIIQ1958 to IIQ1959, 6.1 percent from IIIQ1975 to IIQ1976 and 7.9 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983. The United States missed this opportunity of high growth in the initial phase of recovery.  BEA data show the US economy in standstill relative to historical experience with annual growth of 2.6 percent in 2010 decelerating to 1.6 percent annual growth in 2011, 2.2 percent in 2012, 1.8 percent in 2013, 2.5 percent in 2014, 3.1 percent in 2015, 1.7 percent in 2016, 2.3 percent in 2017, 3.0 percent in 2018 and 2.2 percent in 2019 (http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) with contraction of 3.5 percent in 2020 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.  The expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1986 was at the average annual growth rate of 5.7 percent, 5.1 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1986, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1988, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1988. 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1989, 4.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1989, 4.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1989. 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1989, 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1990, 4.4 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1990, 4.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1990. 4.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1990. 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1991. 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1992, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1993. 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1993. 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1993. 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1994, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1994 and at 7.9 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dates a contraction of the US from IQ1990 (Jul) to IQ1991 (Mar) (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html). The expansion lasted until another contraction beginning in IQ2001 (Mar). US GDP contracted 1.3 percent from the pre-recession peak of $8983.9 billion of chained 2009 dollars in IIIQ1990 to the trough of $8865.6 billion in IQ1991 (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). GDP grew 2.8 percent in the first four quarters of the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010. GDP growth in the thirty-six quarters from IQ2012 to IVQ2020 accumulated to 17.4 percent. This growth is equivalent to 1.8 percent per year, obtained by dividing GDP in IVQ2020 of $18,794.4 billion by GDP in IVQ2011 of $16,004.1 billion and compounding by 4/36: {[($18,794.4/$16,004.1)4/36 -1]100 = 1.8 percent}.

Table 9-C, US, Number of Quarters, Cumulative Growth and Average Annual Equivalent Growth Rate in Cyclical Expansions

 

Number
of
Quarters

Cumulative Growth

∆%

Average Annual Equivalent Growth Rate

IIIQ 1954 to IQ1957

11

12.8

4.5

First Four Quarters IIIQ1954 to IIQ1955

4

7.8

  

IIQ1958 to IIQ1959

5

10.0

7.9

First Four Quarters

IIIQ1958 to IIQ1959

4

9.2

  

IIQ1975 to IVQ1976

8

8.3

4.1

First Four Quarters IIIQ1975 to IIQ1976

4

6.1

  

IQ1983-IQ1986

IQ1983-IIIQ1986

IQ1983-IVQ1986

IQ1983-IQ1987

IQ1983-IIQ1987

IQ1983 to IIIQ1987

IQ1983 to IVQ1987

IQ1983 to IQ1988

IQ1983 to IIQ1988

IQ1983 to IIIQ1988

IQ1983 to IVQ1988

IQ1983 to IQ1989

IQ1983 to IIQ1989

IQ1983 to IIIQ1989

IQ1983 to IVQ1989

IQ1983 to IQ1990

IQ1983 to IIQ1990

IQ1983 to IIIQ1990

IQ1983 to IVQ1990

IQ1983 to IQ1991

IQ1983 to IIQ1991

IQ1983 to IIIQ1991

IQ1983 to IVQ1991

IQ1983 to IQ1992

IQ1983 to IIQ1992

IQ1983 to IIIQ1992

IQ1983 to IVQ1992

IQ1983 to IQ1993

IQ1983 to IIQ1993

IQ1983 to IIIQ1993

IQ1983 to IVQ1993

IQ1983 to IQ1994

IQ1983 to IIQ1994

13

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

19.8

21.5

22.1

23.0

24.4

25.4

27.6

28.3

29.9

30.7

32.5

33.8

34.8

35.8

36.1

37.6

38.1

38.2

36.9

36.3

37.3

38.0

38.5

40.2

41.7

43.1

44.6

44.8

45.7

46.4

48.3

49.8

51.8

5.7

5.3

5.1

5.0

5.0

4.9

5.0

4.9

4.9

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.7

4.6

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.0

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.7

3.7

3.7

First Four Quarters IQ1983 to IVQ1983

4

7.9

  

Average First Four Quarters in Four Expansions*

  

7.7

  

IIIQ2009 to IVQ2020

46

24.2

1.9

First Four Quarters IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010

  

2.8

  

*First Four Quarters: 7.8% IIIQ1954-IIQ1955; 9.2% IIIQ1958-IIQ1959; 6.1% IIIQ1975-IQ1976; 7.8% IQ1983-IVQ1983

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm

Table EMP provides the comparison between the labor market in the current whole cycle from 2007 to 2019 and the whole cycle from 1979 to 1989. In the entire cycle from 2007 to 2019, the number employed increased 11.491 million, full-time employed increased 9.506 million, part-time for economic reasons increased 0.006 million and population increased 27.308 million. The number employed increased 7.9 percent, full-time employed increased 7.9 percent, part-time for economic reasons increased 0.1 percent and population increased 11.8 percent. There is sharp contrast with the contractions of the 1980s and with most economic history of the United States. In the whole cycle from 1979 to 1989, the number employed increased 18.518 million, full-time employed increased 14.715 million, part-time for economic reasons increased 1.317 million and population increased 21.530 million. In the entire cycle from 1979 to 1989, the number employed increased 18.7 percent, full-time employed increased 17.8 percent, part-time for economic reasons increased 36.8 percent and population increased 13.1 percent. The difference between the 1980s and the current cycle after 2007 is in the high rate of growth after the contraction that maintained trend growth around 3.0 percent for the entire cycle and per capital growth at 2.0 percent. The evident fact is that current weakness in labor markets originates in cyclical slow growth and not in imaginary secular stagnation.

Table EMP, US, Annual Level of Employed, Full-Time Employed, Employed Part-Time for Economic Reasons and Noninstitutional Civilian Population, Millions

 

Employed

Full-Time Employed

Part Time Economic Reasons

Noninstitutional Civilian Population

2000s

        

2000

136.891

113.846

3.227

212.577

2001

136.933

113.573

3.715

215.092

2002

136.485

112.700

4.213

217.570

2003

137.736

113.324

4.701

221.168

2004

139.252

114.518

4.567

223.357

2005

141.730

117.016

4.350

226.082

2006

144.427

119.688

4.162

228.815

2007

146.047

121.091

4.401

231.867

2008

145.362

120.030

5.875

233.788

2009

139.877

112.634

8.913

235.801

2010

139.064

111.714

8.874

237.830

2011

139.869

112.556

8.560

239.618

2012

142.469

114.809

8.122

243.284

2013

143.929

116.314

7.935

245.679

2014

146.305

118.718

7.213

247.947

2015

148.834

121.492

6.371

250.801

2016

151.436

123.761

5.943

253.538

2017

153.337

125.967

5.250

255.079

2018

155.761

128.572

4.778

257.791

2019

157.538

130.597

4.407

259.175

∆2007-2019

11.491

9.506

0.006

27.308

∆% 2007-2019

7.9

7.9

0.1

11.8

2020

147.795

123.188

7,227

260.329

1980s

        

1979

98.824

82.654

3.577

164.863

1980

99.303

82.562

4.321

167.745

1981

100.397

83.243

4.768

170.130

1982

99.526

81.421

6.170

172.271

1983

100.834

82.322

6.266

174.215

1984

105.005

86.544

5.744

176.383

1985

107.150

88.534

5.590

178.206

1986

109.597

90.529

5.588

180.587

1987

112.440

92.957

5.401

182.753

1988

114.968

95.214

5.206

184.613

1989

117.342

97.369

4.894

186.393

∆1979-1989

18.518

14.715

1.317

21.530

∆% 1979-1989

18.7

17.8

36.8

13.1

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/

The total noninstitutional civilian population (ICP) continued to increase during and after the global recession. There is the same disastrous labor market with decline for all in employment (EMP), civilian labor force (CLF), civilian labor force participation rate (CLFP) and employment population ratio (EPOP). There are only increases for unemployment (UNE) and unemployment rate (UNER). The application of the theory of secular stagnation to the US economy and labor markets is void of reality in the form of key facts, which are best explained by accentuated cyclic factors analyzed by Lazear and Spletzer (2012JHJul22).

Table Summary Total, US, Total Noninstitutional Civilian Population, Full-time Employment, Employment, Civilian Labor Force, Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate, Employment Population Ratio, Unemployment, NSA, Millions and Percent

 

ICP

FTE

EMP

CLF

CLFP

EPOP

UNE

2006

228.8

119.7

144.4

151.4

66.2

63.1

7.0

2009

235.8

112.6

139.9

154.1

65.4

59.3

14.3

2012

243.3

114.8

142.5

155.0

63.7

58.6

12.5

2013

245.7

116.3

143.9

155.4

63.2

58.6

11.5

2014

247.9

118.7

146.3

155.9

62.9

59.0

9.6

2015

250.8

121.5

148.8

157.1

62.7

59.3

8.3

2016

253.5

123.8

151.4

159.2

62.8

59.7

7.8

2017

255.1

126.0

153.3

160.3

62.9

60.1

7.0

2018

257.8

128.6

155.8

162.1

62.9

60.4

6.3

2019

259.2

130.6

157.5

163.5

63.1

60.8

6.0

2020

260.3

123.2

147.8

160.7

61.7

56.8

12.9

12/07

233.2

121.0

146.3

153.7

65.9

62.8

7.4

9/09

236.3

112.0

139.1

153.6

65.0

58.9

14.5

3/21

261.0

124.8

150.5

160.4

61.5

57.7

9.9

ICP: Total Noninstitutional Civilian Population; FTE: Full-time Employment Level, EMP: Total Employment Level; CLF: Civilian Labor Force; CLFP: Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate; EPOP: Employment Population Ratio; UNE: Unemployment

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/

The same situation is present in the labor market for young people in ages 16 to 24 years with data in Table Summary Youth. The youth noninstitutional civilian population (ICP) continued to increase during and after the global recession. There is the same disastrous labor market with decline for young people in employment (EMP), civilian labor force (CLF), civilian labor force participation rate (CLFP) and employment population ratio (EPOP). There are only increases for unemployment of young people (UNE) and youth unemployment rate (UNER). If aging were a factor of secular stagnation, growth of population of young people would attract a premium in remuneration in labor markets. The sad fact is that young people are also facing tough labor markets. The application of the theory of secular stagnation to the US economy and labor markets is void of reality in the form of key facts, which are best explained by accentuated cyclic factors analyzed by Lazear and Spletzer (2012JHJul22).

Table Summary Youth, US, Youth, Ages 16 to 24 Years, Noninstitutional Civilian Population, Full-time Employment, Employment, Civilian Labor Force, Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate, Employment Population Ratio, Unemployment, NSA, Millions and Percent

 

ICP

EMP

CLF

CLFP

EPOP

UNE

UNER

2006

36.9

20.0

22.4

60.6

54.2

2.4

10.5

2009

37.6

17.6

21.4

56.9

46.9

3.8

17.6

2012

38.8

17.8

21.3

54.9

46.0

3.5

16.2

2013

38.8

18.1

21.4

55.0

46.5

3.3

15.5

2014

38.7

18.4

21.3

55.0

47.6

2.9

13.4

2015

38.6

18.8

21.2

55.0

48.6

2.5

11.6

2016

38.4

19.0

21.2

55.2

49.4

2.2

10.4

2017

38.2

19.2

21.2

55.5

50.3

2.0

9.2

2018

38.0

19.2

21.0

55.2

50.5

1.8

8.6

2019

37.7

19.3

21.1

55.9

51.2

1.8

8.4

2020

37.5

17.2

20.2

53.9

45.9

3.0

14.9

12/07

37.5

19.4

21.7

57.8

51.6

2.3

10.7

9/09

37.6

17.0

20.7

55.2

45.1

3.8

18.2

3/21

37.3

17.8

20.1

53.9

48.0

2.2

11.0

ICP: Youth Noninstitutional Civilian Population; EMP: Youth Employment Level; CLF: Youth Civilian Labor Force; CLFP: Youth Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate; EPOP: Youth Employment Population Ratio; UNE: Unemployment; UNER: Youth Unemployment Rate

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/

The United States is experiencing high youth unemployment as in European economies. Table I-10 provides the employment level for ages 16 to 24 years of age estimated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. On an annual basis, youth employment fell from 20.041 million in 2006 to 17.362 million in 2011 or 2.679 million fewer youth jobs and to 17.834 million in 2012 or 2.207 million fewer jobs. Youth employment fell from 20.041 million in 2006 to 18.057 million in 2013 or 1.984 million fewer jobs. Youth employment fell from 20.041 million in 2006 to 18.442 million in 2014 or 1.599 million. Youth employment fell from 20.041 million in 2006 to 18.756 Youth employment fell from 20.041 million in 2006 to 18.756 million in 2015 or 1.285 million. Youth employment fell from 20.041 million in 2006 to 18.992 million in 2016 or 1.049 million. Youth employment fell from 20.041 million in 2006 to 19.206 million in 2017 or 0.835 million. Youth employment fell from 20.041 million in 2006 to 19.177 million in 2017 or 0.864 million. The level of youth jobs fell from 20.129 million in Dec 2006 to 18.347 million in Dec 2014 for 1.782 million fewer youth jobs. The level of youth jobs fell from 20.129 million in Dec 2006 to 18.720 million in Dec 2015 or 1.409 million fewer jobs. Youth jobs fell from 20.129 million in Dec 2006 to 18.830 million in Dec 2016 or 1.299 million. Youth jobs fell from 21.167 million in Aug 2006 to 20.038 million in Aug 2017 or 1.129 million. During the seasonal peak months of youth employment in the summer from Jun to Aug, youth employment has fallen by more than two million jobs relative to 21.167 million in Aug 2006 to 18.972 million in Aug 2014 for 2.195 million fewer jobs. Youth employment fell from 21.914 million in Jul 2006 to 20.085 million in Jul 2014 for 1.829 million fewer youth jobs. The number of youth jobs fell from 21.268 million in Jun 2006 million to 19.421 million in Jun 2014 or 1.847 million fewer youth jobs. The number of jobs ages 16 to 24 years fell from 21.167 million in Aug 2006 to 18.636 million in Aug 2013 or by 2.531 million. The number of youth jobs fell from 19.604 million in Sep 2006 to 18.043 million in Sep 2013 or 1.561 million fewer youth jobs. The number of youth jobs fell from 20.129 million in Dec 2006 to 18.106 million in Dec 2013 or 2.023 million fewer jobs. The civilian noninstitutional population ages 16 to 24 years increased from 37.443 million in Jul 2007 to 38.861 million in Jul 2013 or by 1.418 million while the number of jobs for ages 16 to 24 years fell by 2.230 million from 21.914 million in Jul 2006 to 19.684 million in Jul 2013. The civilian noninstitutional population for ages 16 to 24 years increased from 37.455 million in Aug 2007 to 38.841 million in Aug 2013 or by 1.386 million while the number of youth jobs fell by 1.777 million. The civilian noninstitutional population increased from 37.467 million in Sep 2007 to 38.822 million in Sep 2013 or by 1.355 million while the number of youth jobs fell by 1.455 million. The civilian noninstitutional population increased from 37.480 million in Oct 2007 to 38.804 million in Oct 2013 or by 1.324 million while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.877 million from Oct 2006 to Oct 2013. The civilian noninstitutional population increased from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 38.798 million in Nov 2013 or by 1.722 million while the number of youth jobs fell 1.799 million. The civilian noninstitutional population increased from 37.518 million in Dec 2007 to 38.790 million in Dec 2013 or by 1.272 million while the number of youth jobs fell 2.023 million from Dec 2006 to Dec 2013. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.488 million from 37.282 million in in Jan 2007 to 38.770 million in Jan 2014 while the number of youth jobs fell 2.035 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.464 million from 37.302 in Feb 2007 to 38.766 million in Feb 2014 while the number of youth jobs decreased 2.058 million. The civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.437 million from 37.324 million in Mar 2007 to 38.761 million in Mar 2014 while jobs for ages 16 to 24 years decreased 1.599 million from 19.538 million in Mar 2007 to 17.939 million in Mar 2014. The civilian noninstitutional population ages 16 to 24 years increased 1.410 million from 37.349 million in Apr 2007 to 38.759 million in Apr 2014 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.347 million. The civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.370 million from 37.379 million in May 2007 to 38.749 million in May 2014 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.128 million. The civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.330 million from 37.410 million in Jun 2007 to 38.740 million in Jun 2014 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.847 million from 21.268 million in Jun 2006 to 19.421 million in Jun 2014. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased by 1.292 million from 37.443 million in Jul 2007 to 38.735 million in Jul 2014 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.632 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased from 37.445 million in Aug 2007 to 38.706 million in Aug 2014 or 1.251 million while the number of youth jobs fell 1.441 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.652 million from 37.027 million in Sep 2006 to 38.679 million in Sep 2014 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.500 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased from 37.047 million in Oct 2006 to 38.650 million in Oct 2014 or 1.603 million while the number of youth jobs fell 1.072 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 38.628 million in Nov 2014 or 1.552 million while the number of youth jobs fell 1.327 million. The civilian noninstitutional population increased from 37.100 million in Dec 2006 to 38.606 million in Dec 2014 or 1.506 million while the number of youth jobs fell 1.782 million. The civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.971 million from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 38.732 million in Jan 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.091 million. The civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.914 million from 36.791 million in Feb 2006 to 38.705 million in Feb 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 0.960 million. The civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.858 million from 36.821 million in Mar 2006 to 38.679 million in Mar 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.215 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.800 million from 36.854 million in Apr 2006 to 38.654 million in Apr 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.165 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1,733 million from 36.897 million in May 2006 to 38.630 million in May 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.060 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.666 million from 36.943 million in Jun 2006 to 38.609 million in Jun 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.479 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.600 million from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 38.589 million in Jul 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.581 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.548 million from 37.008 million in Aug 2006 to 38.556 million in Aug 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.590 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1,498 million from 37.027 million in Sep 2006 to 38.525 million in Sep 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.249 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.444 million from 37.047 million in Oct 2006 to 38.491 million in Oct 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.199 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.392 million from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 38.468 million in Nov 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.418 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.341 million from 37.100 million in Dec 2006 to 38.441 million in Dec 2015 while the level of youth jobs 1.409 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.734 million from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 38.495 million in Jan 2016 while the level of youth jobs fell 0.844 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.698 million from 36.791 million in Feb 2006 to 38.489 million in Feb 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 0.726 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1,662 million from 36.821 million in Mar 2006 to 38.483 million in Mar 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 0.711 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.626 million from 36.854 million in Apr 2006 to 38.480 million in Apr 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 0.895 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.571 million from 36.897 million in May 2006 to 38.468 million in May 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 0.894 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.516 million from 36.943 million in Jun 2006 to 38.459 million in Jun 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.301 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.461 million from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 38.450 million in Jul 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.458 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.414 million from 37.008 million in Aug 2006 to 38.422 million in Aug 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.291 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.368 million from 37.027 million in Sep 2006 to 38.395 million in Sep 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 0.911 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.320 million from 37.047 million in Oct 2006 to 38.367 million in Oct 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.158 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.283 million from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 38.359 million in Nov 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.102 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.248 million from 37.100 million in Dec 2006 to 38.348 million in Dec 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.299 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.488 million from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 38.249 million in Jan 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.692 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.440 million from 36.791 million in Feb 2006 to 38.231 million in Feb 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.578 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.393 million from 36.821 million in Mar 2006 to 38.214 million in Mar 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.377 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.343 million from 36.854 million in Apr 2006 to 38.197 million in Apr 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.458 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.284 million from 36.897 million in May 2006 to 38.181 million in May 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.699 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.223 million from 36.943 million in Jun 2006 to 38.166 million in Jun 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.938 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.163 million from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 38.152 million in Jul 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.024 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.163 million from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 38.152 million in Jul 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.024 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.120 million from 37.008 million in Aug 2006 to 38.128 million in Aug 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.129 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.076 million from 37.027 million in Sep 2006 to 38.103 million in Sep 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.485 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.032 million from 37.047 million in Oct 2006 to 38.079 million in Oct 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.852 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.984 million from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 38.060 million in Nov 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.272 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.938 million from 37.100 million in Dec 2006 to 38.038 million in Dec 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.519 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.304 million from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 38.065 million in Jan 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.500 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.264 million from 36.791 million in Feb 2006 to 38.055 million in Feb 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.380 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.225 million from 36.821 million in Mar 2006 to 38.046 million in Mar 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.244 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.185 million from 36.854 million in Apr 2006 to 38.039 million in Apr 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.533 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.126 million from 36.897 million in May 2006 to 38.023 million in May 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.785 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.066 million from 36.943 million in Jun 2006 to 38.009 million in Jun 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.936 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.008 million from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 37.997 million in Jul 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.017 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.977 million from 37.008 million in Aug 2006 to 37.985 million in Aug 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.795 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.947 million from 37.027 million in Sep 2006 to 37.974 million in Sep 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.818 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.915 million from 37.047 million in Oct 2006 to 37.962 million in Oct 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.943 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.876 million from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 37.952 million in Nov 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.063 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.876 million from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 37.952 million in Nov 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.063 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.840 million from 37.100 million in Dec 2006 to 37.940 million in Dec 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.354 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.038 million from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 37.799 million in Jan 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.707 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.996 million from 36.791 million in Feb 2006 to 37.787 million in Feb 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.706 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.952 million from 36.821 million in Mar 2006 to 37.773 million in Mar 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.479 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.908 million from 36.854 million in Apr 2006 to 37.762 million in Apr 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.620 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.853 million from 36.897 million in May 2006 to 37.750 million in May 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.592 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.795 million from 36.943 million in Jun 2006 to 37.738 million in Jun 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.629 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.740 million from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 37.729 million in Jul 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.718 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.722 million from 37.008 million in Aug 2006 to 37.730 million in Aug 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.269 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.705 million from 37.027 million in Sep 2006 to 37.732 million in Sep 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.475 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.687 million from 37.047 million in Oct 2006 to 37.734 million in Oct 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.466 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.650 million from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 37.726 million in Nov 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.811 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.617 million from 37.100 million in Dec 2006 to 37.717 million in Dec 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.152 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.758 million from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 37.519 million in Jan 2020 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.357 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.721 million from 36.791 million in Feb 2006 to 37.512 million in Feb 2020 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.100 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.683 million from 36.821 million in Mar 2006 to 37.504 million in Mar 2020 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.231 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.643 million from 36.854 million in Apr 2006 to 37.497 million in Apr 2020 while the number of youth jobs decreased 6.294 million in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.591 million from 36.897 million in May 2006 to 37.488 million in May 2020 while the number of youth jobs decreased 5.417 million in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.536 million from 36.943 million in Jun 2006 to 37.479 million in Jun 2020 while the number of youth jobs decreased 4.715 million in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.483 million from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 37.472 million in Jul 2020 while the number of youth jobs decreased 4.407 million in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.463 million from 37.008 million in Aug 2006 to 37.471 million in Aug 2020 while the number of youth jobs decreased 3.590 million in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. This hardship does not originate in low growth of population but in underperformance of the economy in the expansion from the business cycle. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.442 million from 37.027 million in Sep 2006 to 37.469 million in Sep 2020 while the number of youth jobs decreased 2.262 million in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.421 million from 37.047 million in Oct 2006 to 37.468 million in Oct 2020 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.634 million in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.393 million from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 37.469 million in Nov 2020 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.841 million in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.369 million from 37.100 million in Dec 2006 to 37.469 million in Dec 2020 while the number of youth jobs decreased 2.334 million in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.585 million from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 37.346 million in Jan 2021 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.541 million in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.534 million from 36.791 million in Feb 2006 to 37.325 million in Feb 2021 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.374 million in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.485 million from 36.821 million in Mar 2006 to 37.306 million in Mar 2021 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.391 million in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. This hardship does not originate in low growth of population but in underperformance of the economy in the expansion from the business cycle. There are two hardships behind these data. First, young people cannot find employment after finishing high school and college, reducing prospects for achievement in older age. Second, students with more modest means cannot find employment to keep them in college.

Table I-10, US, Employment Level 16-24 Years, Thousands, NSA

Year

Jan

Feb

Mar

Nov

Dec

Annual

2001

19678

19745

19800

19675

19547

20088

2002

18653

19074

19091

19397

19394

19683

2003

18811

18880

18709

19163

19136

19351

2004

18852

18841

18752

19615

19619

19630

2005

18858

18670

18989

19750

19733

19770

2006

19003

19182

19291

19903

20129

20041

2007

19407

19415

19538

19660

19361

19875

2008

18724

18546

18745

18454

18378

19202

2009

17467

17606

17564

16689

16615

17601

2010

16166

16412

16587

16946

16727

17077

2011

16512

16638

16898

17402

17234

17362

2012

16944

17150

17301

17877

17604

17834

2013

17183

17257

17271

18104

18106

18057

2014

17372

17357

17939

18576

18347

18442

2015

17912

18222

18076

18485

18720

18756

2016

18159

18456

18580

18801

18830

18992

2017

18311

18604

18914

18631

18610

19206

2018

18503

18802

19047

18840

18775

19177

2019

18296

18476

18812

19092

18977

19322

2020

18646

19082

18060

18062

17795

17192

2021

17462

17808

17900

      

Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/data/

Chart I-21 provides the level of employment for ages 16 to 24 years. There was much sharper decline in employment levels of youth in the global recession than in the recession of 2001 to 2002. There has not been full recovery of the employment levels of youth before the global recession after 2007. There is sharp contraction of youth jobs in Apr 2020 in the lockdown of economic activity in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event, with recovery to still lower levels in May 2020-Mar 2021.

clip_image024

Chart I-21, US, Employment Level 16-24 Years, Thousands SA, 2001-2021

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/data/

Chart I-21A provides the US civilian noninstitutional population ages 16 to 24 years not seasonally adjusted from 2001 to 2019. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased by 1.292 million from 37.443 million in Jul 2007 to 38.735 million in Jul 2014 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.632 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased from 37.445 million in Aug 2007 to 38.706 million in Aug 2014 or 1.251 million while the number of youth jobs fell 1.441 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.652 million from 37.027 million in Sep 2006 to 38.679 million in Sep 2014 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.500 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased from 37.047 million in Oct 2006 to 38.650 million in Oct 2014 or 1.603 million while the number of youth jobs fell 1.072 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 38.628 million in Nov 2014 or 1.552 million while the number of youth jobs fell 1.327 million. The civilian noninstitutional population increased from 37.100 million in Dec 2006 to 38.606 million in Dec 2014 or 1.506 million while the number of youth jobs fell 1.782 million. The civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.971 million from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 38.732 million in Jan 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.091 million. The civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.914 million from 36.791 million in Feb 2006 to 38.705 million in Feb 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 0.960 million. The civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.858 million from 36.821 million in Mar 2006 to 38.679 million in Mar 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.215 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.800 million from 36.854 million in Apr 2006 to 38.654 million in Apr 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.165 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1,733 million from 36.897 million in May 2006 to 38.630 million in May 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.060 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.666 million from 36.943 million in Jun 2006 to 38.609 million in Jun 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.479 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.600 million from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 38.589 million in Jul 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.581 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.548 million from 37.008 million in Aug 2006 to 38.556 million in Aug 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.590 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1,498 million from 37.027 million in Sep 2006 to 38.525 million in Sep 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.249 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.444 million from 37.047 million in Oct 2006 to 38.491 million in Oct 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.199 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.392 million from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 38.468 million in Nov 2015 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.418 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.341 million from 37.100 million in Dec 2006 to 38.441 million in Dec 2015 while the level of youth jobs 1.409 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.734 million from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 38.495 million in Jan 2016 while the level of youth jobs fell 0.844 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.698 million from 36.791 million in Feb 2006 to 38.489 million in Feb 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 0.726 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1,662 million from 36.821 million in Mar 2006 to 38.483 million in Mar 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 0.711 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.626 million from 36.854 million in Apr 2006 to 38.480 million in Apr 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 0.895 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.571 million from 36.897 million in May 2006 to 38.468 million in May 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 0.894 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.516 million from 36.943 million in Jun 2006 to 38.459 million in Jun 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.301 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.461 million from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 38.450 million in Jul 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.458 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.414 million from 37.008 million in Aug 2006 to 38.422 million in Aug 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.291 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.368 million from 37.027 million in Sep 2006 to 38.395 million in Sep 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 0.911 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.320 million from 37.047 million in Oct 2006 to 38.367 million in Oct 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.158 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.283 million from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 38.359 million in Nov 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.102 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.248 million from 37.100 million in Dec 2006 to 38.348 million in Dec 2016 while the number of youth jobs fell 1.299 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.488 million from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 38.249 million in Jan 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.692 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.440 million from 36.791 million in Feb 2006 to 38.231 million in Feb 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.578 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.393 million from 36.821 million in Mar 2006 to 38.214 million in Mar 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.377 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.343 million from 36.854 million in Apr 2006 to 38.197 million in Apr 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.458 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.284 million from 36.897 million in May 2006 to 38.181 million in May 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.699 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.223 million from 36.943 million in Jun 2006 to 38.166 million in Jun 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.938 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.163 million from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 38.152 million in Jul 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.024 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.163 million from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 38.152 million in Jul 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.024 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.120 million from 37.008 million in Aug 2006 to 38.128 million in Aug 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.129 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.076 million from 37.027 million in Sep 2006 to 38.103 million in Sep 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.485 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.032 million from 37.047 million in Oct 2006 to 38.079 million in Oct 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.852 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.984 million from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 38.060 million in Nov 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.272 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.938 million from 37.100 million in Dec 2006 to 38.038 million in Dec 2017 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.519 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.304 million from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 38.065 million in Jan 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.500 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.264 million from 36.791 million in Feb 2006 to 38.055 million in Feb 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.380 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.225 million from 36.821 million in Mar 2006 to 38.046 million in Mar 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.244 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.185 million from 36.854 million in Apr 2006 to 38.039 million in Apr 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.533 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.126 million from 36.897 million in May 2006 to 38.023 million in May 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.785 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.066 million from 36.943 million in Jun 2006 to 38.009 million in Jun 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.936 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.008 million from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 37.997 million in Jul 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.017 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.977 million from 37.008 million in Aug 2006 to 37.985 million in Aug 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.795 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.947 million from 37.027 million in Sep 2006 to 37.974 million in Sep 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.818 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.915 million from 37.047 million in Oct 2006 to 37.962 million in Oct 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.943 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.876 million from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 37.952 million in Nov 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.063 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.876 million from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 37.952 million in Nov 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.063 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.840 million from 37.100 million in Dec 2006 to 37.940 million in Dec 2018 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.354 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.038 million from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 37.799 million in Jan 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.707 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.996 million from 36.791 million in Feb 2006 to 37.787 million in Feb 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.706 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.952 million from 36.821 million in Mar 2006 to 37.773 million in Mar 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.479 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.908 million from 36.854 million in Apr 2006 to 37.762 million in Apr 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.620 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.853 million from 36.897 million in May 2006 to 37.750 million in May 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.592 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.795 million from 36.943 million in Jun 2006 to 37.738 million in Jun 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.629 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.740 million from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 37.729 million in Jul 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.718 million. This hardship does not originate in low growth of population but in underperformance of the economy in the expansion from the business cycle. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.722 million from 37.008 million in Aug 2006 to 37.730 million in Aug 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.269 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.705 million from 37.027 million in Sep 2006 to 37.732 million in Sep 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.475 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.687 million from 37.047 million in Oct 2006 to 37.734 million in Oct 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.466 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.650 million from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 37.726 million in Nov 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.811 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.617 million from 37.100 million in Dec 2006 to 37.717 million in Dec 2019 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.152 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.758 million from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 37.519 million in Jan 2020 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.357 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.721 million from 36.791 million in Feb 2006 to 37.512 million in Feb 2020 while the number of youth jobs decreased 0.100 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.683 million from 36.821 million in Mar 2006 to 37.504 million in Mar 2020 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.231 million. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.643 million from 36.854 million in Apr 2006 to 37.497 million in Apr 2020 while the number of youth jobs decreased 6.294 million in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.591 million from 36.897 million in May 2006 to 37.488 million in May 2020 while the number of youth jobs decreased 5.417 million in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.536 million from 36.943 million in Jun 2006 to 37.479 million in Jun 2020 while the number of youth jobs decreased 4.715 million in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. This hardship does not originate in low growth of population but in underperformance of the economy in the expansion from the business cycle. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.483 million from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 37.472 million in Jul 2020 while the number of youth jobs decreased 4.407 million in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.463 million from 37.008 million in Aug 2006 to 37.471 million in Aug 2020 while the number of youth jobs decreased 3.590 million in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.442 million from 37.027 million in Sep 2006 to 37.469 million in Sep 2020 while the number of youth jobs decreased 2.262 million in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.421 million from 37.047 million in Oct 2006 to 37.468 million in Oct 2020 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.634 million in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.393 million from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 37.469 million in Nov 2020 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.841 million in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.369 million from 37.100 million in Dec 2006 to 37.469 million in Dec 2020 while the number of youth jobs decreased 2.334 million in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.585 million from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 37.346 million in Jan 2021 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.541 million in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.534 million from 36.791 million in Feb 2006 to 37.325 million in Feb 2021 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.374 million in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.485 million from 36.821 million in Mar 2006 to 37.306 million in Mar 2021 while the number of youth jobs decreased 1.391 million in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. This hardship does not originate in low growth of population but in underperformance of the economy in the expansion from the business cycle. There are two hardships behind these data. First, young people cannot find employment after finishing high school and college, reducing prospects for achievement in older age. Second, students with more modest means cannot find employment to keep them in college.

clip_image025

Chart I-21A, US, Civilian Noninstitutional Population Ages 16 to 24 Years, Thousands NSA, 2001-2021

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/data/

Chart I-21B provides the civilian labor force of the US ages 16 to 24 years NSA from 2001 to 2018. The US civilian labor force ages 16 to 24 years fell from 24.339 million in Jul 2007 to 23.506 million in Jul 2013, by 0.833 million or decline of 3.4 percent, while the civilian noninstitutional population NSA increased from 37.443 million in Jul 2007 to 38.861 million in Jul 2013, by 1.418 million or 3.8 percent. The US civilian labor force ages 16 to 24 fell from 22.801 million in Aug 2007 to 22.089 million in Aug 2013, by 0.712 million or 3.1 percent, while the noninstitutional population for ages 16 to 24 years increased from 37.455 million in Aug 2007 to 38.841 million in Aug 2013, by 1.386 million or 3.7 percent. The US civilian labor force ages 16 to 24 years fell from 21.917 million in Sep 2007 to 21.183 million in Sep 2013, by 0.734 million or 3.3 percent while the civilian noninstitutional youth population increased from 37.467 million in Sep 2007 to 38.822 million in Sep 2013 by 1.355 million or 3.6 percent. The US civilian labor force fell from 21.821 million in Oct 2007 to 21.003 million in Oct 2013, by 0.818 million or 3.7 percent while the noninstitutional youth population increased from 37.480 million in Oct 2007 to 38.804 million in Oct 2013, by 1.324 million or 3.5 percent. The US youth civilian labor force fell from 21.909 million in Nov 2007 to 20.825 million in Nov 2013, by 1.084 million or 4.9 percent while the civilian noninstitutional youth population increased from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 38.798 million in Nov 2013 or by 1.722 million. The US youth civilian labor force fell from 21.684 million in Dec 2007 to 20.642 million in Dec 2013, by 1.042 million or 4.8 percent, while the civilian noninstitutional population increased from 37.518 million in Dec 2007 to 38.790 million in Dec 2013, by 1.272 million or 3.4 percent. The youth civilian labor force of the US fell from 21.770 million in Jan 2007 to 20.423 million in Jan 2014, by 1.347 million or 6.2 percent while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 37.282 million in Jan 2007 to 38.770 million in Jan 2014, by 1.488 million or 4.0 percent. The youth civilian labor force of the US fell 1.255 million from 21.645 million in Feb 2007 to 20.390 million in Feb 2014 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.464 million from 37.302 million in Feb 2007 to 38.766 million in Feb 2014. The youth civilian labor force of the US fell 0.693 million from 21.634 million in Mar 2007 to 20.941 million in Mar 2014 or 3.2 person while the youth noninstitutional civilian population 1.437 million from 37.324 million in Mar 2007 to 38.761 million in Mar 2014 or 3.9 percent. The US youth civilian labor force fell 981 thousand from 21.442 million in Apr 2007 to 20.461 million in Apr 2014 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased from 37.349 million in Apr 2007 to 38.759 million in Apr 2014 by 1.410 thousand or 3.8 percent. The youth civilian labor force decreased from 21.659 million in May 2007 to 21.160 million in May 2014 by 499 thousand or 2.3 percent while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.370 million from 37.739 million in May 2007 to 38.749 million in May 2007 or by 2.7 percent. The youth civilian labor force decreased from 24.128 million in Jun 2006 to 22.851 million in Jun 2014 by 1.277 million or 5.3 percent while the civilian noninstitutional population increased from 36.943 million in Jun 2006 to 38.740 million in Jun 2014 by 1.797 million or 4.9 percent. The youth civilian labor force fell from 24.664 million in Jul 2006 to 23.437 million in Jul 2014 while the civilian noninstitutional population increased from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 38.735 million in Jul 2014. The youth civilian labor force fell 1.818 million from 23.634 million in Aug 2006 to 21.816 million in Aug 2014 while the civilian noninstitutional population increased from 37.008 million in Aug 2006 to 38.706 million in Aug 2914 or 1.698 million. The youth civilian labor force fell 0.942 million from 21.901 million in Sep 2006 to 20.959 million in Sep 2014 while the noninstitutional population increased 1.652 million from 37.027 million in Sep 2006 to 38.679 million in Sep 2014. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.702 million from 22.105 million in Oct 2006 to 21.403 million in Oct 2014 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased from 37.047 million in Oct 2006 to 38.650 million in Oct 2014 or 1.603 million. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.111 million from 22.145 million in Nov 2006 to 21.034 million in Nov 2014 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 38.628 million in Nov 2014 or 1.552 million. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.472 million from 22.136 million in Dec 2006 to 20.664 million in Dec 2014 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased from 37.100 million in Dec 2006 to 38.606 million in Dec 2014 or 1.506 million. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.831 million from 21.368 million in Jan 2006 to 20.555 million in Jan 2015 while the youth noninstitutional population increased from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 38.732 million in Jan 2015 or 1.971 million. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.864 million from 21.615 million in Feb 2006 to 20.751 million in Feb 2015 while the youth noninstitutional population increased 1.914 million from 36.791 million in Feb 2006 to 38.705 million in Feb 2015. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.907 million from 21.507 million in Mar 2006 to 20.600 million in Mar 2015 while the civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.858 million from 36.821 million in Mar 2006 to 38.679 million in Mar 2015. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.082 million from 21.498 million in Apr 2006 to 20.416 million in Apr 2015 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.800 million from 36.854 million in Apr 2006 to 38.654 million in Apr 2015. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.681 million from 22.023 million in May 2006 to 21.342 million in May 2015 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1,733 million from 36.897 million in May 2006 to 38.630 million in May 2015. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.202 million from 24.128 million in Jun 2006 to 22.926 million in Jun 2015 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.666 million from 36.943 million in Jun 2006 to 38.609 million in Jun 2015. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.502 million from 24.664 million in Jul 2007 to 23.162 million in Jul 2015 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.600 million from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 38.589 million in Jul 2015. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.667 million from 23.634 million in Aug 2006 to 21.967 million in Aug 2015 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.548 million from 37.008 in Aug 2006 to 38.556 million in Aug 2015. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.290 million from 21.901 million in Sep 2006 to 20.611 in Sep 2015 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.498 million from 37.027 million in Sep 2006 to 38.525 million in Sep 2015. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.228 million from 22.105 million in Oct 2006 to 20.877 million in Oct 2015 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.444 million from 37.047 million in Oct 2006 to 38.491 million in Oct 2015. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.513 million from 22.145 million in Nov 2006 to 20.632 million in Nov 2015 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.392 million from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 38.468 million in Nov 2015. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.301 million from 22.136 million in Dec 2006 to 20.835 million in Dec 2015 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.341 million from 37.100 million in Dec 2006 to 38.441 million in Dec 2015. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.004 million from 21.368 million in Jan 2006 to 20.364 million in Jan 2016 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.734 million from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 38.495 million in Jan 2016. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.930 million from 21.615 million in Feb 2006 to 20.685 million in Feb 2016 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.698 million from 36.791 million in Feb 2006 to 38.489 million in Feb 2016. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.767 million from 21.507 million in Mar 2006 to 20.740 million in Mar 2016 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.662 million from 36.821 million in Mar 2006 to 38.483 million in Mar 2016. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.950 million from 21.498 million in Apr 2006 to 20.548 million in Apr 2016 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.626 million from 36.854 million in Apr 2006 to 38.480 million in Apr 2016. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.921 million from 22.023 million in May 2006 to 21.102 million in May 2016 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.571 million from 36.897 million in May 2006 to 38.468 million in May 2016. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.373 million from 24.128 million in Jun 2006 to 22.755 million in Jun 2016 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.516 million from 36.943 million in Jun 2006 to 38.459 million in Jun 2016. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.560 million from 24.664 million in Jul 2006 to 23.104 million in Jul 2016 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1,461 million from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 38.450 million in Jul 2016. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.536 million from 23.634 million in Aug 2006 to 22.098 million in Aug 2016 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.414 million from 37.008 million in Aug 2006 to 38.422 million in Aug 2016. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.082 million from 21.901 million in Sep 2006 to 20.891 million in Sep 2016 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.368 million from 37.027 million in Sep 2006 to 38.395 million in Sep 2016. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.315 million from 22.105 million in Oct 2006 to 20.790 million in Oct 2016 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.320 million from 37.047 million in Oct 2006 to 38.367 million in Oct 2016. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.410 million from 22.145 million in Nov 2006 to 20.735 million in Nov 2016 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.283 million from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 38.359 million in Nov 2016. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.447 million from 22.136 million in Dec 2006 to 20.689 million in Dec 2016 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.248 million from 37.100 million in Dec 2006 to 38.348 million in Dec 2016. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.861 million from 21.368 million in Jan 2006 to 20.507 million in Jan 2017 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.488 million from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 38.249 million in Jan 2017. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.918 million from 21.615 million in Feb 2006 to 20.697 million in Feb 2017 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.440 million from 36.791 million in Feb 2006 to 38.231 million in Feb 2017. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.751 million from 21.507 million in Mar 2006 to 20.756 million in Mar 2017 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.393 million from 36.821 million in Mar 2006 to 38.214 million in Mar 2017. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.790 million from 21.498 million in Apr 2006 to 20.708 million in Apr 2017 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.343 million from 36.854 million in Apr 2006 to 38.197 million in Apr 2017. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.124 million from 22.023 million in May 2006 to 20.899 million in May 2017 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.284 million from 36.897 million in May 2006 to 38.181 million in May 2017. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.408 million from 24.128 million in Jun 2006 to 22.720 million in Jun 2017 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.223 million from 36.943 million in Jun 2006 to 38.166 million in Jun 2017. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.557 million from 24.664 million in Jul 2006 to 23.107 million in Jul 2017 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.163 million from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 38.152 million in Jul 2017. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.666 million from 23.634 million in Aug 2006 to 21.968 million in Aug 2017 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.120 million from 37.008 million in Aug 2006 to 38.128 million in Aug 2017. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.904 million from 21.901 million in Sep 2006 to 20.997 million in Sep 2017 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.076 million from 37.027 million in Sep 2006 to 38.103 million in Sep 2017. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.284 million from 22.105 million in Oct 2006 to 20.821 million in Oct 2017 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.032 million from 37.047 million in Oct 2006 to 38.079 million in Oct 2017. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.652 million from 22.145 million in Nov 2006 to 20.493 million in Nov 2017 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.984 million from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 38.060 million in Nov 2017. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.885 million from 22.136 million in Dec 2006 to 20.251 million in Dec 2017 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.938 million from 37.100 million in Dec 2006 to 38.038 million in Dec 2017. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.835 million from 21.368 million in Jan 2006 to 20.533 million in Jan 2018 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.304 million from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 38.065 million in Jan 2018. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.835 million from 21.368 million in Jan 2006 to 20.533 million in Jan 2018 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.304 million from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 38.065 million in Jan 2018. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.907 million from 21.615 million in Feb 2006 to 20.708 million in Jan 2018 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.264 million from 36.791 million in Feb 2006 to 38.055 million in Feb 2018. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.755 million from 21.507 million in Mar 2006 to 20.752 million in Mar 2018 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.225 million from 36.821 million in Mar 2006 to 38.046 million in Mar 2018. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.073 million from 21.498 million in Apr 2006 to 20.425 million in Apr 2018 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.185 million from 36.854 million in Apr 2006 to 38.039 million in Apr 2018. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.244 million from 22.023 million in May 2006 to 20.779 million in May 2018 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.126 million from 36.897 million in Apr 2006 to 38.023 million in Apr 2018. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.244 million from 22.023 million in May 2006 to 20.779 million in May 2018 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.126 million from 36.897 million in May 2006 to 38.023 million in May 2018. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.488 million from 24.128 million in Jun 2006 to 22.640 million in Jun 2018 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.066 million from 36.943 million in Jun 2006 to 38.009 million in Jun 2018. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.648 million from 24.664 million in Jul 2006 to 23.016 million in Jul 2018 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.008 million from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 37.997 million in Jul 2018. The youth civilian labor force decreased 2.542 million from 23.634 million in Aug 2006 to 21.092 million in Aug 2018 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.977 million from 37.027 million in Aug 2006 to 37.985 million in Aug 2018. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.400 million from 21.901 million in Sep 2006 to 20.501 million in Sep 2018 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.947 million from 37.027 million in Sep 2006 to 37.974 million in Sep 2018. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.544 million from 22.105 million in Oct 2006 to 20.561 million in Oct 2018 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.915 million from 37.047 million in Oct 2006 to 37.962 million in Oct 2018. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.743 million from 22.145 million in Nov 2006 to 20.402 million in Nov 2018 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.876 million from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 37.952 million in Nov 2018. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.735 million from 22.136 million in Dec 2006 to 20.401 million in Dec 2018 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.840 million from 37.100 million in Dec 2006 to 37.940 million in Dec 2018. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.045 million from 21.368 million in Jan 2006 to 20.323 million in Jan 2019 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 1.038 million from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 37.799 million in Jan 2019. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.252 million from 21.615 million in Feb 2006 to 20.363 million in Feb 2019 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.996 million from 36.791 million in Feb 2006 to 37.787 million in Feb 2019. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.951 million from 21.507 million in Mar 2006 to 20.556 million in Mar 2019 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.952 million from 36.821 million in Mar 2006 to 37.773 million in Mar 2019. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.212 million from 21.498 million in Apr 2006 to 20.286 million in Apr 2019 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.908 million from 36.854 million in Apr 2006 to 37.762 million in Apr 2019. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.055 million from 22.023 million in May 2006 to 20.968 million in May 2019 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.853 million from 36.897 million in May 2006 to 37.750 million in May 2019. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.377 million from 24.128 million in Jun 2006 to 22.751 million in Jun 2019 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.795 million from 36.943 million in Jun 2006 to 37.738 million in Jun 2019. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.353 million from 24.664 million in Jul 2006 to 23.311 million in Jul 2019 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.740 million from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 37.729 million in Jul 2019. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.931 million from 23.634 million in Aug 2006 to 21.703 million in Aug 2019 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.722 million from 37.008 million in Aug 2006 to 37.730 million in Aug 2019. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.148 million from 21.901 million in Sep 2006 to 20.753 million in Sep 2019 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.705 million from 37.027 million in Sep 2006 to 37.732 million in Sep 2019. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.137 million from 22.105 million in Oct 2006 to 20.968 million in Oct 2019 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.687 million from 37.047 million in Oct 2006 to 37.734 million in Oct 2019. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.513 million from 22.145 million in Nov 2006 to 20.632 million in Nov 2019 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.650 million from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 37.726 million in Nov 2019. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.643 million from 22.136 million in Dec 2006 to 20.493 million in Dec 2019 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.617 million from 37.100 million in Dec 2006 to 37.717 million in Dec 2019. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.854 million from 21.368 million in Jan 2006 to 20.514 million in Jan 2020 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.758 million from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 37.519 million in Jan 2020. The youth civilian labor force decreased 0.879 million from 21.615 million in Feb 2006 to 20.736 million in Feb 2020 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.721 million from 36.791 million in Feb 2006 to 37.512 million in Feb 2020. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.440 million from 21.507 million in Mar 2006 to 20.067 million in Mar 2020 while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.683 million from 36.821 million in Mar 2006 to 37.504 million in Mar 2020. The youth civilian labor force decreased 3.569 million from 21.498 million in Apr 2006 to 17.929 million in Apr 2020, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event, while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.643 million from 36.854 million in Apr 2006 to 37.497 million in Apr 2020. The youth civilian labor force decreased 2.801 million from 22.023 million in May 2006 to 19.922 million in May 2020, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event, while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.591 million from 36.897 million in May 2006 to 37.488 million in May 2020. The youth civilian labor force decreased 3.059 million from 24.128 million in Jun 2006 to 21.069 million in Jun 2020, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event, while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.536 million from 36.943 million in Jun 2006 to 37.479 million in Jun 2020. The youth civilian labor force decreased 3.185 million from 24.664 million in Jul 2006 to 21.479 million in Jul 2020, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event, while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.483 million from 36.989 million in Jul 2006 to 37.472 million in Jul 2020. The youth civilian labor force decreased 3.112 million from 23.634 million in Aug 2006 to 20.522 million in Aug 2020, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event, while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.463 million from 37.008 million in Aug 2006 to 37.471 million in Aug 2020. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.863 million from 21.901 million in Sep 2006 to 20.038 million in Sep 2020, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event, while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.442 million from 37.027 million in Sep 2006 to 37.469 million in Sep 2020. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.580 million from 22.105 million in Oct 2006 to 20.525 million in Oct 2020, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event, while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.421 million from 37.047 million in Oct 2006 to 37.468 million in Oct 2020. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.893 million from 22.145 million in Nov 2006 to 20.252 million in Nov 2020, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event, while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.393 million from 37.076 million in Nov 2006 to 37.469 million in Nov 2020. The youth civilian labor force decreased 2.005 million from 22.136 million in Dec 2006 to 20.131 million in Dec 2020, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event, while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.369 million from 37.100 million in Dec 2006 to 37.469 million in Dec 2020. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.502 million from 21.368 million in Jan 2006 to 19.866 million in Jan 2021, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event, while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.585 million from 36.761 million in Jan 2006 to 37.346 million in Jan 2021. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.569 million from 21.615 million in Feb 2006 to 20.046 million in Feb 2021, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event, while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.534 million from 36.791 million in Feb 2006 to 37.325 million in Feb 2021. The youth civilian labor force decreased 1.394 million from 21.507 million in Mar 2006 to 20.113 million in Feb 2021, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event, while the youth civilian noninstitutional population increased 0.485 million from 36.821 million in Mar 2006 to 37.306 million in Mar 2021. Youth in the US abandoned their participation in the labor force because of the frustration that there are no jobs available for them.

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Chart I-21B, US, Civilian Labor Force Ages 16 to 24 Years, Thousands NSA, 2001-2021

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/data/

Chart I-21C provides the ratio of labor force to noninstitutional population or labor force participation of ages 16 to 24 years not seasonally adjusted. The US labor force participation rates for ages 16 to 24 years fell from 66.7 in Jul 2006 to 60.5 in Jul 2013 because of the frustration of young people who believe there may not be jobs available for them. The US labor force participation rate of young people fell from 63.9 in Aug 2006 to 56.9 in Aug 2013. The US labor force participation rate of young people fell from 59.1 percent in Sep 2006 to 54.6 percent in Sep 2013. The US labor force participation rate of young people fell from 59.7 percent in Oct 2006 to 54.1 in Oct 2013. The US labor force participation rate of young people fell from 59.7 percent in Nov 2006 to 53.7 percent in Nov 2013. The US labor force participation rate fell from 57.8 in Dec 2007 to 53.2 in Dec 2013. The youth labor force participation rate fell from 58.4 in Jan 2007 to 52.7 in Jan 2014. The US youth labor force participation rate fell from 58.0 percent in Feb 2007 to 52.6 percent in Feb 2013. The labor force participation rate of ages 16 to 24 years fell from 58.0 in Mar 2007 to 54.0 in Mar 2014. The labor force participation rate of ages 16 to 24 years fell from 57.4 in Apr 2007 to 52.8 in Apr 2014. The labor force participation rate of ages 16 to 24 years fell from 57.9 in May 2007 to 54.6 in May 2014. The labor force participation rate of ages 16 to 24 years fell from 65.3 in Jun 2006 to 59.0 in Jun 2014. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 years fell from 66.7 in Jul 2006 to 60.5 in Jul 2014. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 years fell from 63.9 in Aug 2006 to 56.4 in Aug 2014. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 years fell from 59.1 in Sep 2006 to 54.2 in Sep 2014. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 years fell from 59.7 in Oct 2006 to 55.4 in Oct 2014. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 years fell from 59.7 in Nov 2006 to 54.5 in Nov 2014. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in Dec 2006 to 53.5 in Dec 2014. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.1 in Jan 2006 to 53.1 in Jan 2015. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.8 in Feb 2006 to 53.6 in Feb 2015. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 64 fell from 58.4 in Mar 2006 to 53.3 in Mar 2015. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 64 fell from 58.7 in Apr 2005 to 52.8 in Apr 2006. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 64 fell from 59.7 in May 2006 to 55.2 in May 2015. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 64 fell from 65.3 in Jun 2006 to 59.4 in Jun 2015. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 66.7 in Jul 2006 to 60.0 in Jul 2014. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 63.9 in Aug 2006 to 57.0 in Aug 2015. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.1 in Sep 2006 to 53.5 in Sep 2015. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in Oct 2006 to 54.2 in Oct 2015. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in Nov 2006 to 53.6 in Nov 2015. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in Dec 2006 to 54.2 in Dec 2015. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.1 in Jan 2006 to 52.9 in Jan 2016. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.8 in Feb 2006 to 53.7 in Feb 2016. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.4 in Mar 2006 to 53.9 in Mar 2016. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.3 in Apr 2006 to 53.4 in Apr 2016. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in May 2006 to 54.9 in May 2016. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 65.3 in Jun 2006 to 59.2 in Jun 2016. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 66.7 in Jul 2006 to 60.1 in Jul 2016. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 63.9 in Aug 2006 to 57.5 in Aug 2016. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.1 in Sep 2006 to 54.2 in Sep 2016. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in Oct 2006 to 54.2 in Oct 2016. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in Nov 2006 to 54.1 in Nov 2016. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in Dec 2006 to 54.0 in Dec 2016. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.1 in Jan 2006 to 53.6 in Jan 2017. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.8 in Feb 2006 to 54.1 in Feb 2017. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.4 in Mar 2006 to 54.3 in Mar 2017. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.4 in Mar 2006 to 54.3 in Mar 2017. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.3 in Apr 2006 to 54.2 in Apr 2017. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in May 2006 to 54.7 in May 2017. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 65.3 in Jun 2006 to 59.5 in Jun 2017. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 66.7 in Jul 2006 to 60.6 in Jul 2017. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 63.9 in Aug 2006 to 57.6 in Aug 2017. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.1 in Sep 2006 to 55.1 in Sep 2017. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in Oct 2006 to 54.7 in Oct 2017. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in Nov 2006 to 53.8 in Nov 2017. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in Dec 2006 to 53.2 in Dec 2017. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.1 in Jan 2006 to 53.9 in Jan 2018. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.8 in Feb 2006 to 54.4 in Feb 2018. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.4 in Mar 2006 to 54.5 in Mar 2018. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.3 in Apr 2006 to 53.7 in Apr 2018. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in May 2006 to 54.6 in May 2018. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 65.3 in Jun 2006 to 59.6 in Jun 2018. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 66.7 in Jul 2006 to 60.6 in Jul 2018. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 63.9 in Aug 2006 to 55.5 in Aug 2018. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.1 in Sep 2006 to 54.0 in Sep 2018. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in Oct 2006 to 54.2 in Oct 2018. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in Nov 2006 to 53.8 in Nov 2018. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in Dec 2006 to 53.8 in Dec 2018. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.1 in Jan 2006 to 53.8 in Jan 2019. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.8 in Feb 2006 to 53.9 in Feb 2019. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.4 in Mar 2006 to 54.4 in Mar 2019. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.3 in Apr 2006 to 53.7 in Apr 2019. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in May 2006 to 55.5 in May 2019. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 65.3 in Jun 2006 to 60.3 in Jun 2019. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 66.7 in Jul 2006 to 61.8 in Jul 2019. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 63.9 in Aug 2006 to 57.5 in Aug 2019. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.1 in Sep 2006 to 55.0 in Sep 2019. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in Oct 2006 to 55.6 in Oct 2019. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in Nov 2006 to 54.7 in Nov 2019. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in Dec 2006 to 54.3 in Dec 2019. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.1 in Jan 2006 to 54.7 in Jan 2020. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.8 in Feb 2006 to 55.3 in Feb 2020. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.4 in Mar 2006 to 53.5 in Mar 2020. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.3 in Apr 2006 to 47.8 in Apr 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in May 2006 to 51.3 in May 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 65.3 in Jun 2006 to 56.2 in Jun 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 66.7 in Jul 2006 to 57.3 in Jul 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 63.9 in Aug 2006 to 54.8 in Aug 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.1 in Sep 2006 to 53.5 in Sep 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in Oct 2006 to 54.8 in Oct 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in Nov 2006 to 54.1 in Nov 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.7 in Dec 2006 to 53.7 in Dec 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.1 in Jan 2006 to 53.2 in Jan 2021 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.8 in Feb 2006 to 53.7 in Feb 2021 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The labor force participation rate ages 16 to 24 fell from 58.4 in Mar 2006 to 53.9 in Mar 2021 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Many young people abandoned searches for employment, dropping from the labor force.

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Chart I-21C, US, Labor Force Participation Rate Ages 16 to 24 Years, NSA, 2001-2021

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/data/

An important measure of the job market is the number of people with jobs relative to population available for work (civilian noninstitutional population) or employment/population ratio. Chart I-21D provides the employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 years. The US employment/population ratio NSA for ages 16 to 24 years collapsed from 59.2 in Jul 2006 to 50.7 in Jul 2013. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 years dropped from 57.2 in Aug 2006 to 48.0 in Aug 2013. The employment population ratio for ages to 16 to 24 years declined from 52.9 in Sep 2006 to 46.5 in Sep 2013. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 years fell from 53.6 in Oct 2006 to 46.3 in Oct 2013. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 years fell from 53.7 in Nov 2007 to 46.7 in Nov 2013. The US employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 years fell from 51.6 in Dec 2007 to 46.7 in Dec 2013. The US employment population ratio fell from 52.1 in Jan 2007 to 44.8 in Jan 2014. The US employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.0 in Feb 2007 to 44.8 in Feb 2014. The US employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 years fell from 52.3 in Mar 2007 to 46.3 in Mar 2014. The US employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 years fell from 51.9 in Apr 2007 to 46.5 in Apr 2014. The US employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 years fell from 52.1 in May 2007 to 47.3 in May 2014. The US employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 years fell from 57.6 in Jun 2006 to 50.1 in Jun 2014. The US employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 years fell from 59.2 in Jul 2006 to 50.1 in Jul 2014. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 years fell from 57.2 in Aug 2006 to 49.0 in Aug 2014. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.9 in Sep 2006 to 46.8 in Sep 2014. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 53.6 in Oct 2006 to 48.6 in Oct 2014. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 53.7 in Nov 2006 to 48.1 in Nov 2014. The employment population ration for ages 16 to 24 fell from 54.3 in Dec 2006 to 47.5 in Dec 2014. The employment population ration for ages 16 to 24 years fell from 51.7 in Jan 2006 to 46.2 in Jan 2015. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.1 in Feb 2006 to 47.1 in Feb 2015. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 years fell from 52.4 in Mar 2006 to 46.7 in Mar 2015. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 years fell from 52.7 in Apr 2006 to 47.2 in Apr 2015. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 53.6 in May 206 to 48.4 in May 2015. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 57.6 in Jun 2006 to 51.3 in Jun 2015. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.2 in Jul 2006 to 52.7 in Jul 2015. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 57.2 in Aug 2006 to 50.8 in Aug 2015. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 years fell from 52.9 in Sep 2006 to 47.6 in Sep 2015. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 years fell from 53.6 in Oct 2006 to 48.5 in Oct 2015. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 years fell from 53.7 in Nov 2006 to 48.1 in Nov 2015. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 years fell from 54.3 in Dec 2006 to 48.7 in Dec 2015. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 years fell from 51.7 in Jan 2006 to 47.2 in Jan 2016. The employment population ration for ages 16 to 24 years fell from 52.1 in Feb 2006 to 48.0 in Feb 2016. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.4 in Mar 2006 to 48.3 in Mar 2016. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.7 in Apr 2006 to 48.1 in Apr 2016. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 53.6 in May 2006 to 49.1 in May 2016. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 57.6 in Jun 2006 to 51.9 in Jun 2016. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.2 in Jul 2006 to 53.2 in Jul 2016. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 57.2 in Aug 2006 to 51.7 in Aug 2016. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.9 in Sep 2006 to 48.7 in Sep 2016. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 53.6 in Oct 2006 to 48.7 in Oct 2016. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 53.7 in Nov 2006 to 49.0 in Nov 2016. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 54.3 in Dec 2006 to 49.1 in Dec 2016. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 51.7 in Jan 2006 to 47.9 in Jan 2017. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.1 in Feb 2006 to 48.7 in Feb 2017. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.4 in Mar 2006 to 49.5 in Mar 2017. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.7 in Apr 2006 to 49.6 in Apr 2017. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 53.6 in May 2006 to 49.9 in May 2017. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 57.6 in Jun 2006 to 53.3 in Jun 2017. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.2 in Jul 2006 to 54.8 in Jul 2017. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 57.2 in Aug 2006 to 52.6 in Aug 2017. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.9 in Sep 2006 to 50.2 in Sep 2017. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 53.6 in Oct 2006 to 49.9 in Oct 2017. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 53.7 in Nov 2006 to 49.0 in Nov 2017. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 54.3 in Dec 2006 to 48.9 in Dec 2017. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 51.7 in Jan 2006 to 48.6 in Jan 2018. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.1 in Feb 2006 to 49.4 in Feb 2018. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.4 in Mar 2006 to 50.1 in Mar 2018. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.7 in Apr 2006 to 49.6 in Apr 2018. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 53.6 in May 2006 to 49.9 in May 2018. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 57.6 in Jun 2006 to 53.5 in Jun 2018. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.2 in Jul 2006 to 55.0 in Jul 2018. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 57.2 in Aug 2006 to 51.0 in Aug 2018. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.9 in Sep 2006 to 49.5 in Sep 2018. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 53.6 in Oct 2006 to 49.8 in Oct 2018. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 53.7 in Nov 2006 to 49.6 in Nov 2018. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 54.3 in Dec 2006 to 49.5 in Dec 2018. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 51.7 in Jan 2006 to 48.4 in Jan 2019. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.1 in Feb 2006 to 48.9 in Feb 2019. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.4 in Mar 2006 to 49.8 in Mar 2019. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.7 in Apr 2006 to 49.7 in Apr 2019. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 53.6 in May 2006 to 50.8 in May 2019. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 57.6 in Jun 2006 to 54.7 in Jun 2019. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.2 in Jul 2006 to 56.2 in Jul 2019. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 57.2 in Aug 2006 to 52.7 in Aug 2019. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.9 in Sep 2006 to 50.7 in Sep 2019. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 53.6 in Oct 2006 to 51.4 in Oct 2019. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 53.7 in Nov 2006 to 50.6 in Nov 2019. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 54.3 in Dec 2006 to 50.3 in Dec 2019. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 51.7 in Jan 2006 to 49.7 in Jan 2020. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.1 in Feb 2006 to 50.9 in Feb 2020. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.4 in Mar 2006 to 48.2 in Mar 2020. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.7 in Apr 2006 to 35.0 in Apr 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 53.6 in May 2006 to 38.3 in May 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 57.6 in Jun 2006 to 44.2 in Jun 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 59.2 in Jul 2006 to 46.7 in Jul 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 57.2 in Aug 2006 to 46.9 in Aug 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.9 in Sep 2006 to 46.3 in Sep 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 53.6 in Oct 2006 to 48.6 in Oct 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 53.7 in Nov 2006 to 48.2 in Nov 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 54.3 in Dec 2006 to 47.5 in Dec 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 51.7 in Jan 2006 to 46.8 in Jan 2021 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.1 in Feb 2006 to 47.7 in Feb 2021 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The employment population ratio for ages 16 to 24 fell from 52.4 in Mar 2006 to 48.0 in Mar 2021 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Chart I-21D shows vertical drop during the global recession without recovery.

clip_image028

Chart I-21D, US, Employment Population Ratio Ages 16 to 24 Years, Thousands NSA, 2001-2021

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/data/

Table I-11 provides US unemployment level ages 16 to 24 years. The number unemployed ages 16 to 24 years increased from 2342 thousand in 2007 to 3634 thousand in 2011 or by 1.292 million and 3451 thousand in 2012 or by 1.109 million. The unemployment level ages 16 to 24 years increased from 2342 in 2007 to 3324 thousand in 2013 or by 0.982 million. The unemployment level ages 16 to 24 years increased from 2342 thousand in 2007 to 2853 thousand in 2014 or by 0.511 million. The unemployment level for ages 16 to 24 increased from 2342 thousand in 2007 to 2467 thousand in 2015, decreasing to 2.211 million in 2016. The unemployment level decreased to 1.955 million in 2017. The unemployment level decreased to 1.807 million in 2018. The unemployment level decreased to 1.770 million in 2019. The unemployment level increased to 3.015 million in 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The unemployment level ages 16 to 24 years decreased from 2.216 million in Mar 2006 to 2.214 million in Mar 2021 or decrease by 0.02 million in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.

Table I-11, US, Unemployment Level 16-24 Years, Thousands, NSA

Year

Jan

Feb

Mar

Dec

Annual

2001

2250

2258

2253

2412

2371

2002

2754

2731

2822

2374

2683

2003

2748

2740

2601

2248

2746

2004

2767

2631

2588

2294

2638

2005

2661

2787

2520

2055

2521

2006

2366

2433

2216

2007

2353

2007

2363

2230

2096

2323

2342

2008

2633

2480

2347

2928

2830

2009

3278

3457

3371

3532

3760

2010

3983

3888

3748

3352

3857

2011

3851

3696

3520

3161

3634

2012

3416

3507

3294

3153

3451

2013

3674

3449

3261

2536

3324

2014

3051

3033

3002

2317

2853

2015

2644

2529

2524

2114

2467

2016

2205

2229

2160

1859

2211

2017

2195

2093

1842

1640

1955

2018

2029

1906

1705

1626

1807

2019

2027

1887

1744

1516

1770

2020

1868

1655

2007

2336

3015

2021

2404

2237

2214

    

Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/data/

Chart I-22 provides the unemployment level for ages 16 to 24 from 2001 to 2020. The level rose sharply from 2007 to 2010 with tepid improvement into 2012 and deterioration into 2013-2014 with recent marginal improvement in 2015-2020 alternating with deterioration. There is sharp increase in Apr-May 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event with partial decrease in Jun 2020 to Mar 2021.

clip_image029

Chart I-22, US, Unemployment Level 16-24 Years, Thousands SA, 2001-2021

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/data/

Table I-12 provides the rate of unemployment of young peoples in ages 16 to 24 years. The annual rate jumped from 10.5 percent in 2007 to 18.4 percent in 2010, 17.3 percent in 2011 and 16.2 percent in 2012. The rate of youth unemployment fell marginally to 15.5 percent in 2013, declining to 13.4 percent in Dec 2014. The rate of youth unemployment fell to 11.6 percent in 2015, 10.4 percent in 2016 and 9.2 percent in 2017. During the seasonal peak in Jul, the rate of youth unemployed was 18.1 percent in Jul 2011, 17.1 percent in Jul 2012 and 16.3 percent in Jul 2013 compared with 10.8 percent in Jul 2007. The rate of youth unemployment rose from 11.2 percent in Jul 2006 to 16.3 percent in Jul 2013 and likely higher if adding those who ceased searching for a job in frustration none may be available. The rate of youth unemployment rose from 10.8 in Jul 2007 to 14.3 in Jul 2014. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 9.1 percent in Dec 2006 to 12.3 percent in Dec 2013. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.9 percent in Jan 2007 to 14.9 percent in Jan and Feb 2014. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 9.7 percent in Mar 2007 to 14.3 percent in Mar 2014. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 9.7 percent in Apr 2007 to 11.9 percent in Apr 2014. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.2 percent in May 2007 to 13.4 percent in May 2014. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 12.0 percent in Jun 2007 to 15.0 percent in Jun 2014. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.8 in Jul 2007 to 14.3 in Jul 2014. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.5 in Aug 2007 to 13.0 in Aug 2014. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 11.0 in Sep 2007 to 13.6 in Sep 2014. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.3 in Oct 2007 to 12.2 in Oct 2014. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.3 in Nov 2007 to 11.7 in Nov 2014. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.7 in Dec 2007 to 11.2 in Dec 2014. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.9 in Jan 2007 to 12.9 in Jan 2015. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.3 percent in Feb 2007 to 12.2 percent in Feb 2015. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 9.7 in Mar 2007 to 12.3 in Mar 2015. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 9.7 in Apr 2007 to 10.7 in Apr 2015. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.2 in May 2007 to 12.3 in May 2015. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 11.9 in Jun 2006 to 13.7 in Jun 2015. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.8 in Jul 2007 to 12.2 in Jul 2015. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.5 in Aug 2007 to 10.9 in Aug 2015. The rate of youth unemployment decreased from 11.0 in Sep 2007 to 10.9 in Sep 2015. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.3 in Oct 2007 to 10.6 in Oct 2015. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.3 in Nov 2007 to 10.4 in Nov 2015. The rate of youth unemployment decreased from 10.7 in Dec 2007 to 10.1 in Dec 2015. The rate of youth unemployment decreased from 10.9 in Jan 2007 to 10.8 in Jan 2016. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.3 in Feb 2007 to 10.8 in Feb 2016. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 9.7 in Mar 2007 to 10.4 in Mar 2016. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 9.7 in Apr 2007 to 9.9 in Apr 2016. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.2 in May 2007 to 10.6 in May 2016. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 12.0 in Jun 2007 to 12.3 in Jun 2016. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.8 in Jul 2007 to 11.5 in Jul 2016. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 10.5 in Aug 2007 to 10.1 in Aug 2016. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 11.0 in Sep 2007 to 10.2 in Sep 2016. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 10.3 in Oct 2007 to 10.1 in Oct 2016. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 10.3 in Nov 2007 to 9.3 in Nov 2016. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 10.7 in Dec 2007 to 9.0 in Dec 2016. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 10.9 in Jan 2007 to 10.7 in Jan 2017. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 10.3 in Feb 2007 to 10.1 in Feb 2017. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 9.7 in Mar 2007 to 8.9 in Mar 2017. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 9.7 in Apr 2007 to 8.5 in Apr 2017. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 10.2 in May 2007 to 8.8 in May 2017. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 12.0 in Jun 2007 to 10.5 in Jun 2017. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 10.8 in Jul 2007 to 9.6 in Jul 2017. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 10.5 in Aug 2007 to 8.8 in Aug 2017. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 10.8 in Jul 2007 to 9.6 in Jul 2017. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 10.5 in Aug 2007 to 8.8 in Aug 2017. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 11.0 in Sep 2007 to 8.9 in Sep 2017. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 10.3 in Oct 2007 to 8.7 in Oct 2017. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 10.3 in Nov 2007 to 9.1 in Nov 2017. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 10.7 in Dec 2007 to 8.1 in Dec 2017. The rate of youth unemployment fell from 10.9 in Jan 2007 to 9.9 in Jan 2018, decreasing to 9.2 percent in Feb 2018. The rate of youth unemployment fell to 8.2 in Mar 2018, decreasing to 7.6 in Apr 2018. The rate of youth unemployment fell to 8.2 in Mar 2018, decreasing to 7.6 in Apr 2018. The rate of youth unemployment increased to 8.6 in May 2018, increasing to 10.2 in Jun 2018. The rate of youth unemployment decreased to 9.2 percent in Jul 2018, decreasing to 8.2 percent in Aug 2018. The rate of youth unemployment increased to 8.4 percent in Sep 2018, decreasing to 8.0 in Oct 2018. The rate of youth unemployment decreased to 7.7 percent in Nov 2018, increasing to 8.0 percent in Dec 2018. The rate of youth unemployment increased to 10.0 percent in Jan 2019, decreasing to 9.3 percent in Feb 2019. The rate of youth unemployment decreased to 8.5 in Mar 2019, decreasing to 7.4 percent in Apr 2019. The rate of youth unemployment increased to 8.5 in May 2019, increasing to 9.3 in Jun 2019. The rate of youth unemployment decreased to 9.1 in Jul 2019, decreasing to 8.3 in Aug 2019. The rate of youth unemployment decreased to 7.8 in Sep 2019, decreasing to 7.5 in Oct 2019 and stabilizing to 7.5 in Nov 2019. The rate of youth unemployment decreased to 7.4 in Dec 2019, increasing to 9.1 in Jan 2020. The rate of youth unemployment decreased to 8.0 in Feb 2020. The rate of youth unemployment increased to 10.0 in Mar 2020, increasing to 26.9 in Apr 2020 and 25.3 in May 2020, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The rate decreased to 21.4 in Jun 2020, 18.5 in Jul 2020, 14.4 in Aug 2020, 13.5 in Sep 2020, 11.2 in Oct 2020, 10.8 in Nov 2020, 11.6 in Dec 2020 and 12.1 in Jan 2021, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The rate decreased to 11.2 in Feb 2021 and 11.0 in Mar 2021. The actual rate is higher because of the difficulty in counting those dropping from the labor force because they believe there are no jobs available for them.

Table I-12, US, Unemployment Rate 16-24 Years, NSA, Thousands

Year

Jan

Feb

Mar

Dec

Annual

2001

10.3

10.3

10.2

11.0

10.6

2002

12.9

12.5

12.9

10.9

12.0

2003

12.7

12.7

12.2

10.5

12.4

2004

12.8

12.3

12.1

10.5

11.8

2005

12.4

13.0

11.7

9.4

11.3

2006

11.1

11.3

10.3

9.1

10.5

2007

10.9

10.3

9.7

10.7

10.5

2008

12.3

11.8

11.1

13.7

12.8

2009

15.8

16.4

16.1

17.5

17.6

2010

19.8

19.2

18.4

16.7

18.4

2011

18.9

18.2

17.2

15.5

17.3

2012

16.8

17.0

16.0

15.2

16.2

2013

17.6

16.7

15.9

12.3

15.5

2014

14.9

14.9

14.3

11.2

13.4

2015

12.9

12.2

12.3

10.1

11.6

2016

10.8

10.8

10.4

9.0

10.4

2017

10.7

10.1

8.9

8.1

9.2

2018

9.9

9.2

8.2

8.0

8.6

2019

10.0

9.3

8.5

7.4

8.4

2020

9.1

8.0

10.0

11.6

14.9

2021

12.1

11.2

11.0

    

Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/data/

Chart I-23 provides the BLS estimate of the not-seasonally-adjusted rate of youth unemployment for ages 16 to 24 years from 2001 to 2020. The rate of youth unemployment increased sharply during the global recession of 2008 and 2009 but failed to drop faster to earlier lower levels because of cyclically slower growth of GDP. Long-term economic performance in the United States consisted of trend growth of GDP at 3 percent per year and of per capita GDP at 2 percent per year as measured for 1870 to 2010 by Robert E. Lucas (2011May). The economy returned to trend growth after adverse events such as wars and recessions. The key characteristic of adversities such as recessions was much higher rates of growth in expansion periods that permitted the economy to recover output, income and employment losses that occurred during the contractions. Over the business cycle, the economy compensated the losses of contractions with higher growth in expansions to maintain trend growth of GDP of 3 percent and of GDP per capita of 2 percent. There is sharp increase to 26.9 percent in Apr 2020 and 25.3 percent in May 2020 in the rate of youth unemployment in the global recession, in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. There is partial decrease to 21.4 percent in Jun 2020, 18.5 in Jul 2020, 14.4 in Aug 2020, 13.5 in Sep 2020, 11.2 in Oct 2020, 10.8 in Nov 2020, 11.6 in Dec 2020 and 12.1 in Jan 2021 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The rate decreased to 11.2 in Feb 2021 and 11.0 in Mar 2021.

clip_image030

Chart I-23, US, Unemployment Rate 16-24 Years, Percent, NSA, 2001-2021

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/data/

Chart I-24 provides longer perspective with the rate of youth unemployment in ages 16 to 24 years from 1948 to 2020. The rate of youth unemployment rose to 20 percent during the contractions of the early 1980s and also during the contraction of the global recession in 2008 and 2009. The data illustrate again the argument in this blog that the contractions of the early 1980s are the valid framework for comparison with the global recession of 2008 and 2009 instead of misleading comparisons with the 1930s. During the initial phase of recovery, the rate of youth unemployment 16 to 24 years NSA fell from 18.9 percent in Jun 1983 to 14.5 percent in Jun 1984. In contrast, the rate of youth unemployment 16 to 24 years was nearly the same during the expansion after IIIQ2009: 17.5 percent in Dec 2009, 16.7 percent in Dec 2010, 15.5 percent in Dec 2011, 15.2 percent in Dec 2012, 17.6 percent in Jan 2013, 16.7 percent in Feb 2013, 15.9 percent in Mar 2013, 15.1 percent in Apr 2013. The rate of youth unemployment was 16.4 percent in May 2013, 18.0 percent in Jun 2013, 16.3 percent in Jul 2013 and 15.6 percent in Aug 2013. In Sep 2006, the rate of youth unemployment was 10.5 percent, increasing to 14.8 percent in Sep 2013. The rate of youth unemployment was 10.3 in Oct 2007, increasing to 14.4 percent in Oct 2013. The rate of youth unemployment was 10.3 percent in Nov 2007, increasing to 13.1 percent in Nov 2013. The rate of youth unemployment was 10.7 percent in Dec 2013, increasing to 12.3 percent in Dec 2013. The rate of youth unemployment was 10.9 percent in Jan 2007, increasing to 14.9 percent in Jan 2014. The rate of youth unemployment was 10.3 percent in Feb 2007, increasing to 14.9 percent in Feb 2014. The rate of youth unemployment was 9.7 percent in Mar 2007, increasing to 14.3 percent in Mar 2014. The rate of youth unemployment was 9.7 percent in Apr 2007, increasing to 11.9 percent in Apr 2014. The rate of youth unemployment was 10.2 percent in May 2007, increasing to 13.4 percent in May 2014. The rate of youth unemployment was 12.0 percent in Jun 2007, increasing to 15.0 percent in Jun 2014. The rate of youth unemployment was 10.8 percent in Jul 2007, increasing to 14.3 percent in Jul 2014. The rate of youth unemployment was 10.5 percent in Aug 2007, increasing to 13.0 percent in Aug 2014. The rate of youth unemployment was 11.0 percent in Sep 2007, increasing to 13.6 percent in Sep 2014. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.3 in Oct 2007 to 12.2 in Oct 2014. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.3 percent in Nov 2007 to 11.7 percent in Nov 2014. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.7 in Dec 2007 to 11.2 in Dec 2014. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 9.7 in Mar 2007 to 12.3 in Mar 2015. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 9.7 in Apr 2007 to 10.7 in Apr 2015. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.2 in May 2007 to 12.3 in May 2015. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 12.0 in Jun 2007 to 13.7 in Jun 2015. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.8 in Jul 2007 to 12.2 in Jul 2015. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.5 in Aug 2007 to 10.9 in Aug 2015. The rate of youth unemployment decreased from 11.0 in Sep 2007 to 10.9 in Sep 2015. The rate of youth unemployment increased from 10.3 in Oct 2007 to 10.6 in Oct 2015, decreasing to 10.4 in Nov 2015. The rate of youth unemployment decreased to 10.1 in Dec 2015. The rate of youth unemployment stood at 10.8 in Jan 2016, 10.8 in Feb 2016, 10.4 in Mar 2016 and 9.9 in Apr 2016. The rate of youth unemployment increased to 10.6 in May 2016 and 12.3 in Jun 2016. The rate of youth unemployment fell to 11.5 in Jul 2016, decreasing to 10.1 in Aug 2016. The rate of youth unemployment increased to 10.2 in Sep 2016, decreasing to 10.1 in Oct 2016 and 9.3 in Nov 2016. The rate of youth unemployment decreased to 9.0 in Dec 2016, increasing to 10.7 in Jan 2017. The rate of youth unemployment fell to 10.1 in Feb 2017, decreasing to 8.9 in Mar 2017. The rate of youth unemployment fell to 8.5 in Apr 2017, increasing to 8.8 in May 2017. The rate of youth unemployment increased to 10.5 percent in Jun 2017, decreasing to 9.6 in Jul 2017. The rate of youth unemployment decreased to 8.8 percent in Aug 2017, increasing to 8.9 percent in Sep 2017. The rate of youth unemployment fell to 8.7 percent in Oct 2017, increasing to 9.1 percent in Nov 2017. The rate of youth unemployment fell to 8.1 percent in Dec 2017, increasing to 9.9 percent in Jan 2018. The rate of youth unemployment decreased to 9.2 percent in Feb 2018, decreasing to 8.2 percent in Mar 2018. The rate of youth unemployment decreased to 7.6 percent in Apr 2018. The rate of youth unemployment increased to 8.6 percent in May 2018 and increased to 10.2 percent in Jun 2018. The rate of youth unemployment decreased to 9.2 percent in Jul 2018, decreasing to 8.2 percent in Aug 2018. The rate of youth unemployment increased to 8.4 percent in Sep 2018, decreasing to 8.0 percent in Oct 2018. The rate of youth unemployment decreased to 7.7 percent in Nov 2018, increasing to 8.0 percent in Dec 2018. The rate of youth unemployment increased to 10.0 percent in Jan 2019, decreasing to 9.3 percent in Feb 2019. The rate of youth unemployment decreased to 8.5 percent in Mar 2018, decreasing to 7.4 percent in Apr 2019. The rate of youth unemployment increased to 8.5 percent in May 2018, increasing to 9.3 percent in Jun 2019. The rate of youth unemployment decreased to 9.1 percent in Jul 2019, decreasing to 8.3 percent in Aug 2019. The rate of youth unemployment decreased to 7.8 percent in Sep 2019, decreasing to 7.5 percent in Oct 2019 and stabilizing to 7.5 percent in Nov 2019. The rate of youth unemployment decreased to 7.4 percent in Dec 2019, increasing to 9.1 percent in Jan 2020. The rate of youth unemployment decreased to 8.0 percent in Feb 2020. The rate of youth unemployment increased to 10.0 in Mar 2020. The rate of youth unemployment increased to 26.9 in Apr 2020 and 25.3 in May 2020 in the global recession, in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The rate of youth unemployment reached 21.4 in Jun 2020, 18.5 in Jul 2020, 14.4 in Aug 2020, 13.5 in Sep 2020, 11.2 in Oct 2020, 10.8 in Nov 2020, 11.6 in Dec 2020, 12.1 in Jan 2021, 11.2 in Feb 2021 and 11.0 in Mar 2021, in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The actual rate is higher because of the difficulty in counting those dropping from the labor force because they believe there are no jobs available for them. The difference originates in the vigorous seasonally adjusted annual equivalent average rate of GDP growth of 5.9 percent during the recovery from IQ1983 to IVQ1985 and 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1993 compared with 2.3 percent on average during the first 42 quarters of expansion from IIIQ2009 to IVQ2019. US economic growth has been at only 1.9 percent on average in the cyclical expansion in the 46 quarters from IIIQ2009 to IVQ2020 and in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Boskin (2010Sep) measures that the US economy grew at 6.2 percent in the first four quarters and 4.5 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the second quarter of 1975; and at 7.7 percent in the first four quarters and 5.8 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the first quarter of 1983 (Professor Michael J. Boskin, Summer of Discontent, Wall Street Journal, Sep 2, 2010 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882304575465462926649950.html). There are new calculations using the revision of US GDP and personal income data since 1929 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) and the third estimate of GDP for IVQ2020 (https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2021-03/gdp4q20_3rd.pdf). The average of 7.7 percent in the first four quarters of major cyclical expansions is in contrast with the rate of growth in the first four quarters of the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010 of only 2.8 percent obtained by dividing GDP of $15,557.3 billion in IIQ2010 by GDP of $15,134.1 billion in IIQ2009 {[($15,557.3/$15,134.1) -1]100 = 2.8%], or accumulating the quarter on quarter growth rates (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/03/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-43-percent-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/02/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-41-percent-in.html). The expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1986 was at the average annual growth rate of 5.7 percent, 5.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1986, 5.1 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1986, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1989, 4.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1989, 4.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1989, 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1989. 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1990, 4.4 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1990, 4.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1990, 4.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1990, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1992, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1994, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1994 and at 7.9 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/03/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-43-percent-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/02/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-41-percent-in.html). The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dates a contraction of the US from IQ1990 (Jul) to IQ1991 (Mar) (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html). The expansion lasted until another contraction beginning in IQ2001 (Mar). US GDP contracted 1.3 percent from the pre-recession peak of $8983.9 billion of chained 2009 dollars in IIIQ1990 to the trough of $8865.6 billion in IQ1991 (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IVQ2020 and in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event would have accumulated to 46.9 percent. GDP in IVQ2020 would be $23,147.0 billion (in constant dollars of 2012) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $4352.6 billion than actual $18,794.4 billion. There are more than four trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 30.0 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 17.4 percent of the effective labor force with the largest part originating in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/04/increase-in-apr-2021-of-nonfarm-payroll.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/03/increase-in-feb-2021-of-nonfarm-payroll.html). Unemployment is decreasing while employment is increasing in initial adjustment of the lockdown of economic activity in the global recession resulting from the COVID-19 event (https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-march-2021.htm). US GDP in IVQ2020 is 18.8 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $15,762.0 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $18,794.4 billion in IVQ2020 or 19.2 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.4 percent. Professor John H. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. Cochrane (2016May02) measures GDP growth in the US at average 3.5 percent per year from 1950 to 2000 and only at 1.76 percent per year from 2000 to 2015 with only at 2.0 percent annual equivalent in the current expansion. Cochrane (2016May02) proposes drastic changes in regulation and legal obstacles to private economic activity. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 3.0 percent per year from Feb 1919 to Feb 2021. Growth at 3.0 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 159.8259 in Feb 2021. The actual index NSA in Feb 2021 is 100.0959 which is 37.4 percent below trend. The underperformance of manufacturing in Mar-Aug 2020 originates partly in the earlier global recession augmented by the current global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19. Manufacturing grew at the average annual rate of 3.3 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2006. Growth at 3.3 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 166.0649 in Feb 2021. The actual index NSA in Feb 2021 is 100.0959, which is 39.7 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 1.7 percent between Dec 1986 and Feb 2021. Using trend growth of 1.7 percent per year, the index would increase to 135.2123 in Feb 2021. The output of manufacturing at 100.0959 in Feb 2021 is 26.0 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Using the NAICS (North American Industry Classification System), manufacturing output fell from the high of 110.5147 in Jun 2007 to the low of 86.3800 in Apr 2009 or 21.8 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased from 86.3800 in Apr 2009 to 101.6996 in Feb 2021 or 17.7 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased at the annual equivalent rate of 3.5 percent from Dec 1986 to Dec 2006. Growth at 3.5 percent would increase the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 167.7988 in Feb 2021. The NAICS index at 101.6996 in Feb 2021 is 39.4 below trend. The NAICS manufacturing output index grew at 1.7 percent annual equivalent from Dec 1999 to Dec 2006. Growth at 1.7 percent would raise the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 133.1884 in Feb 2021. The NAICS index at 101.6996 in Feb 2021 is 23.6 percent below trend under this alternative calculation.

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Chart I-24, US, Unemployment Rate 16-24 Years, Percent NSA, 1948-2021

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/data/

It is more difficult to move to other jobs after a certain age because of fewer available opportunities for mature individuals than for new entrants into the labor force. Middle-aged unemployed are less likely to find another job. Table I-13 provides the unemployment level ages 45 years and over. The number unemployed ages 45 years and over rose from 1.607 million in Oct 2006 to 4.576 million in Oct 2010 or by 184.8 percent. The number of unemployed ages 45 years and over declined to 3.800 million in Oct 2012 that is still higher by 136.5 percent than in Oct 2006. The number unemployed age 45 and over increased from 1.704 million in Nov 2006 to 3.861 million in Nov 2012, or 126.6 percent. The number unemployed age 45 and over is still higher by 98.5 percent at 3.383 million in Nov 2013 than 1.704 million in Nov 2006. The number unemployed age 45 and over jumped from 1.794 million in Dec 2006 to 4.762 million in Dec 2010 or 165.4 percent. At 3.927 million in Dec 2012, mature unemployment is higher by 2.133 million or 118.9 percent higher than 1.794 million in Dec 2006. The level of unemployment of those aged 45 year or more of 3.632 million in Oct 2013 is higher by 2.025 million than 1.607 million in Oct 2006 or higher by 126.0 percent. The number of unemployed 45 years and over increased from 1.794 million in Dec 2006 to 3.378 million in Nov 2013 or 88.3 percent. The annual number of unemployed 45 years and over increased from 1.848 million in 2006 to 3.719 million in 2013 or 101.2 percent. The number of unemployed 45 years and over increased from 2.126 million in Jan 2006 to 4.394 million in Jan 2013, by 2.618 million or 106.7 percent. The number of unemployed 45 years and over rose from 2.126 million in Jan 2006 to 3.508 million in Jan 2014, by 1.382 million or 65.0 percent. The level of unemployed 45 years or older increased 2.051 million or 99.8 percent from 2.056 million in Feb 2006 to 4.107 million in Feb 2013 and at 3.490 million in Feb 2014 is higher by 69.7 percent than in Feb 2006. The number of unemployed 45 years and over increased 2.048 million or 108.9 percent from 1.881 million in Mar 2006 to 3.929 million in Mar 2013 and at 3.394 million in Mar 2014 is higher by 80.4 percent than in Mar 2006. The number of unemployed 45 years and over increased 1.846 million or 100.2 percent from 1.843 million in Apr 2006 to 3.689 million in Apr 2013 and at 3.006 million in Apr 2014 is higher by 1.163 million or 63.1 percent. The number of unemployed ages 45 years and over increased 102.1 percent from 1.784 million in May 2006 to 3.605 million in May 2014 and at 2.913 million in May 2014 is higher by 63.3 percent than in May 2007.

The number of unemployed ages 45 years and over increased 102.1 percent from 1.805 million in Jun 2007 to 3.648 million in Jun 2013 and at 2.832 million in Jun 2014 is higher by 56.9 percent than in Jun 2007. The number of unemployed ages 45 years and over increased 81.5 percent from 2.053 million in Jul 2007 to 3.727 million in Jul 2013 and at 3.083 million in Jul 2014 is higher by 50.2 percent than in Jul 2007. The level unemployed ages 45 years and over increased 84.4 percent from 1.956 million in Aug 2007 to 3.607 million in Aug 2013 and at 3.037 million in Aug 2014 is 55.2 percent higher than in Aug 2007. The level unemployed ages 45 years and over increased 90.7 percent from 1.854 million in Sep 2007 to 3.535 million in Sep 2013 and at 2.640 million in Sep 2014 is 42.4 percent higher than in Sep 2007. The level unemployed ages 45 years and over increased 1.747 million from 1.885 million in Oct 2007 to 3.632 million in Oct 2013 and at 2.606 million in Oct 2014 is 38.2 percent higher than in Oct 2007. The level unemployed ages 45 years and over increased 1.458 million from 1.925 million in Nov 2007 to 3.383 million in Nov 2013 and at 2.829 million in Nov 2014 is 47.0 percent higher than in Nov 2007. The level of unemployed ages 45 years and over increased 1.258 million from Dec 2007 to Dec 2013 and at 2.667 million in Dec 2014 is 25.8 higher than in Dec 2007. The level unemployed ages 45 years and over increased 1.353 million from Jan 2007 to Jan 2015 and at 3.077 million in Jan 2015 is 42.8 percent higher than in Jan 2007. The level unemployed ages 45 years and over increased 1.352 million from 2.138 million in Feb 2007 to 3.490 million in Feb 2014 and at 2.991 million in Feb 2015 is 39.9 percent higher than in Feb 2007. The level of unemployed ages 45 years and over increased 1.363 million from 2.031 million in Mar 2007 to 3.394 million in Mar 2014 and at 2.724 million in Mar 2015 is 34.1 percent higher than in Mar 2007. The level of unemployed ages 45 years and over increased from 1.871 million in Apr 2007 to 3.006 million in Apr 2014 and at 2.579 million in Apr 2015 is 37.8 higher than in Apr 2007. The level of unemployed ages 45 years and over increased from 1.803 million in May 2007 to 2.913 million in Jun 2014 and at 2.457 million in May 2015 is 36.3 percent higher than in May 2007. The level of unemployed ages 45 years and over increased from 1.805 million in Jun 2007 to 2.832 million in Jun 2014 and at 2.359 million in Jun 2015 is 30.7 percent higher than in Jun 2007. The level of unemployed ages 45 years and over increased from 2.053 million in Jul 2007 to 3.083 million in Jul 2014 and at 2.666 million in Jul 2015 is 30.0 percent higher than in Jul 2007. The level of unemployed ages 45 years and over increased from 1.956 million in Aug 2007 to 3.037 million in Aug 2014 and at 2.693 million in Aug 2015 is 37.7 higher than in Aug 2007. The level of unemployed ages 45 years and over increased from 1.854 million in Sep 2007 to 2.640 million in Sep 2015 and at 2.388 million in Sep 2015 is 28.8 percent higher than in Sep 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 years and over increased from 1.885 million in Oct 2007 to 2.606 million in Oct 2014 and at 2.290 million in Oct 2015 is 21.5 percent higher than in Oct 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 years and over increased from 1.925 million in Nov 2007 to 2.829 million in Nov 2014 and at 2.349 million in Nov 2015 is 22.0 percent higher than in Nov 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 years and over increased from 2.120 million in Dec 2007 to 2.667 million in Dec 2014 and at 2.317 million in Dec 2015 is 9.3 percent higher than in Dec 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.155 million in Jan 2007 to 3.077 million in Jan 2015 and at 2.736 million in Jan 2016 is 27.0 percent higher than in Jan 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.138 million in Feb 2007 to 2.991 million in Feb 2015 and at 2.744 million in Feb 2016 is 28.3 percent higher than in Feb 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.031 million in Mar 2007 to 2.724 million in Mar 2015 and at 2.747 million in Mar 2016 is 35.3 percent higher than in Mar 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.871 million in Apr 2007 to 2.579 million in Apr 2015 and at 2.410 million in Apr 2016 is 28.8 percent higher than in Apr 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.803 million in May 2007 to 2.457 million in May 2015 and at 2.190 million in May 2016 is 21.5 percent higher than in May 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.805 million in Jun 2007 to 2.359 million in Jun 2015 and at 2.345 million in Jun 2016 is 29.9 percent higher than in Jun 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.053 million in Jul 2007 to 2.666 million in Jul 2015 and at 2.619 million in Jul 2016 is 27.6 percent higher than in Jul 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.956 million in Aug 2007 to 2.693 million in Aug 2015 and at 2.565 million in Aug 2016 is 31.1 percent higher than in Aug 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.854 million in Sep 2007 to 2.388 million in Sep 2015 and at 2.414 million in Sep 2016 is 30.2 percent higher than in Sep 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.885 million in Oct 2007 to 2.290 million in Oct 2015 and at 2.337 million in Oct 2016 is 24.0 percent higher than in Oct 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.925 million in Nov 2007 to 2.349 million in Nov 2015 and at 2.355 million in Nov 2016 is 22.3 percent higher than in Nov 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.120 million in Dec 2007 to 2.317 million in Dec 2015 and at 2.360 million in Dec 2016 is 11.3 percent higher than in Dec 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.155 million in Jan 2007 to 2.736 million in Jan 2016 and at 2.585 million in Jan 2017 is 20.0 percent higher than in Jan 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.138 million in Feb 2007 to 2.744 million in Feb 2016 and at 2.493 million in Feb 2017 is 16.6 percent higher than in Feb 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.031 million in Mar 2007 to 2.747 million in Mar 2016 and at 2.413 million in Mar 2017 is 18.8 percent higher than in Mar 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.031 million in Mar 2007 to 2.747 million in Mar 2016 and at 2.413 million in Mar 2017 is 18.8 percent higher than in Mar 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.871 million in Apr 2007 to 2.410 million in Apr 2016 and at 2.202 million in Apr 2017 is 17.7 percent higher than in Apr 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.803 million in May 2007 to 2.190 million in May 2016 and at 2.052 million in May 2017 is 13.8 percent higher than in May 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.805 million in Jun 2007 to 2.345 million in Jun 2016 and at 2.256 million in Jun 2017 is 25.0 percent higher than in Jun 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.053 million in Jul 2007 to 2.619 million in Jul 2016 and at 2.335 million in Jul 2017 is 13.7 percent higher than in Jul 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.956 million in Aug 2007 to 2.565 million in Aug 2016 and at 2.444 million in Aug 2017 is 24.9 percent higher than in Aug 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.854 million in Sep 2007 to 2.414 million in Sep 2016 and at 2.140 million in Sep 2017 is 15.4 percent higher than in Sep 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.885 million in Oct 2007 to 2.337 million in Oct 2016 and at 1.899 million in Oct 2017 is 0.7 percent higher than in Oct 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.925 million in Nov 2007 to 2.355 million in Nov 2016 and at 1.958 million in Nov 2017 is 1.7 percent higher than in Nov 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.120 million in Dec 2007 to 2.360 million in Dec 2016 and at 2.079 million in Dec 2017 is 1.9 percent lower than in Dec 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.155 million in Jan 2007 to 2.585 million in Jan 2017 and at 2.300 million in Jan 2018 is 6.7 percent higher than in Jan 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.138 million in Feb 2007 to 2.493 million in Feb 2017 and at 2.354 million in Feb 2018 is 10.1 percent higher than in Feb 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.031 million in Mar 2007 to 2.413 million in Mar 2017 and at 2.266 million in Mar 2018 is 11.6 percent higher than in Mar 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.871 million in Apr 2007 to 2.202 million in Apr 2017 and at 1.937 million in Apr 2018 is 3.5 percent higher than in Apr 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.803 million in May 2007 to 2.052 million in May 2017 and at 1.774 million in May 2018 is 1.6 percent lower than in May 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.805 million in Jun 2007 to 2.256 million in Jun 2017 and at 2.102 million in Jun 2018 is 16.5 percent higher than in Jun 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.053 million in Jul 2007 to 2.335 million in Jul 2017 and at 2.235 million in Jul 2018 is 8.9 percent higher than in Jul 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.956 million in Aug 2007 to 2.444 million in Aug 2017 and at 2.096 million in Aug 2018 is 7.2 percent higher than in Aug 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.854 million in Sep 2007 to 2.140 million in Sep 2017 and at 1.872 million in Sep 2018 is 1.0 percent higher than in Sep 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.885 million in Oct 2007 to 1.889 million in Oct 2017 and at 1.833 million in Oct 2018 is 2.8 percent lower than in Oct 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.925 million in Nov 2007 to 1.958 million in Nov 2017 and at 1.850 million in Nov 2018 is 3.9 percent lower than in Nov 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 2.120 million in Dec 2007 to 2.079 million in Dec 2017 and at 2.026 million in Dec 2018 is 4.4 percent lower than in Dec 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.155 million in Jan 2007 to 2.300 million in Jan 2018 and at 2.393 million in Jan 2019 is 11.0 percent higher than in Jan 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.138 million in Feb 2007 to 2.354 million in Feb 2018 and at 2.149 million in Feb 2019 is 0.5 percent higher than in Feb 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.031 million in Mar 2007 to 2.266 million in Mar 2018 and at 2.091 million in Mar 2019 is 3.0 percent higher than in Mar 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.871 million in Apr 2007 to 1.937 million in Apr 2018 and at 1.707 million in Apr 2019 is 8.8 percent lower than in Apr 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 1.803 million in May 2007 to 1.774 million in May 2018 and at 1.712 million in May 2019 is 5.0 percent lower than in May 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.805 million in Jun 2007 to 2.102 million in Jun 2018 and at 1.976 million in Jun 2019 is 9.5 percent higher than in Jun 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.053 million in Jul 2007 to 2.235 million in Jul 2018 and at 2.053 million in Jul 2019 is 0.0 percent higher than in Jul 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.956 million in Aug 2007 to 2.096 million in Aug 2018 and at 2.018 million in Aug 2019 is 3.2 percent higher than in Aug 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.854 million in Sep 2007 to 1.872 million in Sep 2018 and at 1.755 million in Sep 2019 is 5.3 percent lower than in Sep 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 1.885 million in Oct 2007 to 1.833 million in Oct 2018 and at 1.703 million in Oct 2019 is 9.7 percent lower than in Oct 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 1.925 million in Nov 2007 to 1.850 million in Nov 2018 and at 1.732 million in Nov 2019 is 10.0 percent lower than in Nov 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 2.120 million in Dec 2007 to 2.026 million in Dec 2018 and at 1.713 million in Dec 2019 is 19.2 percent lower than in Dec 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.155 million in Jan 2007 to 2.393 million in Jan 2019 and at 1.990 million in Jan 2020 is 7.7 percent lower than in Jan 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.138 million in Feb 2007 to 2.149 million in Feb 2019 and at 2.000 million in Feb 2020 is 6.5 percent lower than in Feb 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.031 million in Mar 2007 to 2.091 million in Mar 2019 and at 2.462 million in Mar 2020 is 21.2 percent higher than in Mar 2007. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 1.871 million in Apr 2007 to 1.707 million in Apr 2019 and at 8.819 million in Apr 2020 is 371.4 percent higher than in Apr 2007 in the global recession, in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 1.871 million in Apr 2007 to 1.707 million in Apr 2019 and at 8.819 million in Apr 2020 is 371.4 percent higher than in Apr 2007 in the global recession, in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 1.803 million in May 2007 to 1.712 million in May 2019 and at 7.614 million in May 2020 is 322.3 percent higher than in May 2007 in the global recession, in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.805 million in Jun 2007 to 1.976 million in Jun 2019 and at 6.290 million in Jun 2020 is 248.5 percent higher than in Jun 2007 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over did not change from 2.053 million in Jul 2007 to 2.053 million in Jul 2019 and at 5.966 million in Jul 2020 is 190.6 percent higher than in Jul 2007 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.956 million in Aug 2007 to 2.018 million in Aug 2019 and at 5.023 million in Aug 2020 is 156.8 percent higher than in Aug 2007 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 1.854 million in Sep 2007 to 1.755 million in Sep 2019 and at 4.464 million in Sep 2020 is 140.8 percent higher than in Sep 2007 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 1.885 million in Oct 2007 to 1.703 million in Oct 2019 and at 3.790 million in Oct 2020 is 101.1 percent higher than in Oct 2007 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 1.925 million in Nov 2007 to 1.732 million in Nov 2019 and at 3.814 million in Nov 2020 is 98.1 percent higher than in Nov 2007 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 2.120 million in Dec 2007 to 1.713 million in Dec 2019 and at 3.881 million in Dec 2020 is 83.1 percent higher than in Dec 2007 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 2.155 million in Jan 2007 to 1.990 million in Jan 2020 and at 3.740 million in Jan 2021 is 73.5 percent higher than in Jan 2007 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 2.138 million in Feb 2007 to 2.000 million in Feb 2020 and at 3.760 million in Feb 2021 is 75.9 percent higher than in Feb 2007 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.031 million in Mar 2007 to 2.462 million in Mar 2020 and at 3.302 million in Mar 2021 is 62.6 percent higher than in Feb 2007 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The actual number unemployed is likely much higher because many are not accounted who abandoned job searches in frustration there may not be a job for them. Recent improvements may be illusory. The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. US economic growth has been at only 1.9 percent on average in the cyclical expansion in the 46 quarters from IIIQ2009 to IVQ2020 and in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Boskin (2010Sep) measures that the US economy grew at 6.2 percent in the first four quarters and 4.5 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the second quarter of 1975; and at 7.7 percent in the first four quarters and 5.8 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the first quarter of 1983 (Professor Michael J. Boskin, Summer of Discontent, Wall Street Journal, Sep 2, 2010 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882304575465462926649950.html). There are new calculations using the revision of US GDP and personal income data since 1929 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) and the third estimate of GDP for IVQ2020 (https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2021-03/gdp4q20_3rd.pdf). The average of 7.7 percent in the first four quarters of major cyclical expansions is in contrast with the rate of growth in the first four quarters of the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010 of only 2.8 percent obtained by dividing GDP of $15,557.3 billion in IIQ2010 by GDP of $15,134.1 billion in IIQ2009 {[($15,557.3/$15,134.1) -1]100 = 2.8%], or accumulating the quarter on quarter growth rates (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/03/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-43-percent-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/02/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-41-percent-in.html). The expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1986 was at the average annual growth rate of 5.7 percent, 5.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1986, 5.1 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1986, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1989, 4.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1989, 4.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1989, 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1989. 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1990, 4.4 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1990, 4.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1990, 4.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1990, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1992, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1994, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1994 and at 7.9 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/03/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-43-percent-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/02/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-41-percent-in.html). The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dates a contraction of the US from IQ1990 (Jul) to IQ1991 (Mar) (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html). The expansion lasted until another contraction beginning in IQ2001 (Mar). US GDP contracted 1.3 percent from the pre-recession peak of $8983.9 billion of chained 2009 dollars in IIIQ1990 to the trough of $8865.6 billion in IQ1991 (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IVQ2020 and in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event would have accumulated to 46.9 percent. GDP in IVQ2020 would be $23,147.0 billion (in constant dollars of 2012) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $4352.6 billion than actual $18,794.4 billion. There are more than four trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 30.0 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 17.4 percent of the effective labor force with the largest part originating in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/04/increase-in-apr-2021-of-nonfarm-payroll.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/03/increase-in-feb-2021-of-nonfarm-payroll.html). Unemployment is decreasing while employment is increasing in initial adjustment of the lockdown of economic activity in the global recession resulting from the COVID-19 event (https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-march-2021.htm). US GDP in IVQ2020 is 18.8 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $15,762.0 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $18,794.4 billion in IVQ2020 or 19.2 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.4 percent. Professor John H. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. Cochrane (2016May02) measures GDP growth in the US at average 3.5 percent per year from 1950 to 2000 and only at 1.76 percent per year from 2000 to 2015 with only at 2.0 percent annual equivalent in the current expansion. Cochrane (2016May02) proposes drastic changes in regulation and legal obstacles to private economic activity. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 3.0 percent per year from Feb 1919 to Feb 2021. Growth at 3.0 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 159.8259 in Feb 2021. The actual index NSA in Feb 2021 is 100.0959 which is 37.4 percent below trend. The underperformance of manufacturing in Mar-Aug 2020 originates partly in the earlier global recession augmented by the current global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19. Manufacturing grew at the average annual rate of 3.3 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2006. Growth at 3.3 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 166.0649 in Feb 2021. The actual index NSA in Feb 2021 is 100.0959, which is 39.7 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 1.7 percent between Dec 1986 and Feb 2021. Using trend growth of 1.7 percent per year, the index would increase to 135.2123 in Feb 2021. The output of manufacturing at 100.0959 in Feb 2021 is 26.0 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Using the NAICS (North American Industry Classification System), manufacturing output fell from the high of 110.5147 in Jun 2007 to the low of 86.3800 in Apr 2009 or 21.8 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased from 86.3800 in Apr 2009 to 101.6996 in Feb 2021 or 17.7 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased at the annual equivalent rate of 3.5 percent from Dec 1986 to Dec 2006. Growth at 3.5 percent would increase the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 167.7988 in Feb 2021. The NAICS index at 101.6996 in Feb 2021 is 39.4 below trend. The NAICS manufacturing output index grew at 1.7 percent annual equivalent from Dec 1999 to Dec 2006. Growth at 1.7 percent would raise the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 133.1884 in Feb 2021. The NAICS index at 101.6996 in Feb 2021 is 23.6 percent below trend under this alternative calculation.

Table I-13, US, Unemployment Level 45 Years and Over, NSA

Year

Jan

Feb

Mar

Dec

Annual

2000

1498

1392

1291

1217

1249

2001

1572

1587

1533

1901

1576

2002

2235

2280

2138

2210

2114

2003

2495

2415

2485

2130

2253

2004

2453

2397

2354

2086

2149

2005

2286

2286

2126

1963

2009

2006

2126

2056

1881

1794

1848

2007

2155

2138

2031

2120

1966

2008

2336

2336

2326

3485

2540

2009

4138

4380

4518

4960

4500

2010

5314

5307

5194

4762

4879

2011

5027

4837

4748

4182

4537

2012

4458

4472

4390

3927

4133

2013

4394

4107

3929

3378

3719

2014

3508

3490

3394

2667

3000

2015

3077

2991

2724

2317

2574

2016

2736

2744

2747

2360

2485

2017

2585

2493

2413

2079

2238

2018

2300

2354

2266

2026

2054

2019

2393

2149

2091

1713

1917

2020

1990

2000

2462

3881

4676

2021

3740

3760

3302

    

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/data/

Chart I-25 provides the level unemployed ages 45 years and over. There was an increase in the recessions of the 1980s, 1991 and 2001 followed by declines to earlier levels. The current expansion of the economy after IIIQ2009 has not been sufficiently vigorous to reduce significantly middle-age unemployment. Recent improvements could be illusory because many abandoned job searches in frustration that there may not be jobs for them and are not counted as unemployed.

clip_image032

Chart I-25, US, Unemployment Level Ages 45 Years and Over, Thousands, NSA, 1976-2021

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/data/

Chart I-25A provides the unemployment level ages 45 years and over from Jan 2016 to Jan 2021. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 1.871 million in Apr 2007 to 1.707 million in Apr 2019 and at 8.819 million in Apr 2020 is 371.4 percent higher than in Apr 2007 in the global recession, in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 1.803 million in May 2007 to 1.712 million in May 2019 and at 7.614 million in May 2020 is 322.3 percent higher than in May 2007 in the global recession, in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.805 million in Jun 2007 to 1.976 million in Jun 2019 and at 6.290 million in Jun 2020 is 248.5 percent higher than in Jun 2007 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over did not change from 2.053 million in Jul 2007 to 2.053 million in Jul 2019 and at 5.966 million in Jul 2020 is 190.6 percent higher than in Jul 2007 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 1.956 million in Aug 2007 to 2.018 million in Aug 2019 and at 5.023 million in Aug 2020 is 156.8 percent higher than in Aug 2007 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 1.854 million in Sep 2007 to 1.755 million in Sep 2019 and at 4.464 million in Sep 2020 is 140.8 percent higher than in Sep 2007 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 1.885 million in Oct 2007 to 1.703 million in Oct 2019 and at 3.790 million in Oct 2020 is 101.1 percent higher than in Oct 2007 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 1.925 million in Nov 2007 to 1.732 million in Nov 2019 and at 3.814 million in Nov 2020 is 98.1 percent higher than in Nov 2007 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 2.120 million in Dec 2007 to 1.713 million in Dec 2019 and at 3.881 million in Dec 2020 is 83.1 percent higher than in Dec 2007 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 2.155 million in Jan 2007 to 1.990 million in Jan 2020 and at 3.740 million in Jan 2021 is 73.5 percent higher than in Jan 2007 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over decreased from 2.138 million in Feb 2007 to 2.000 million in Feb 2020 and at 3.760 million in Feb 2021 is 75.9 percent higher than in Feb 2007 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The level of unemployment ages 45 and over increased from 2.031 million in Mar 2007 to 2.462 million in Mar 2020 and at 3.302 million in Mar 2021 is 62.6 percent higher than in Feb 2007 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.

clip_image033

Chart I-25A, US, Unemployment Level Ages 45 Years and Over, Thousands, NSA, 2019-2021

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/data/

Chart I-25B provides the level of unemployment ages 45 years and over from Jan 2019 to Feb 2021. There is sharp increase in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event with only partial return to earlier levels.

clip_image033[1]

Chart I-25B, US, Unemployment Level Ages 45 Years and Over, Thousands, NSA, 2019-2021

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/data/

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021.

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