Sunday, August 20, 2017

Fluctuating Valuations of Risk Financial Assets with Inflation Uncertainty of Interest Rate Policy, World Inflation Waves, United States Industrial Production, Squeeze of Economic Activity by Carry Trades Induced by Zero Interest Rates, World Cyclical Slow Growth and Global Recession Risk: Part IV

CANNOT UPLOAD CHARTS AND IMAGES

Fluctuating Valuations of Risk Financial Assets with Inflation Uncertainty of Interest Rate Policy, World Inflation Waves, United States Industrial Production, Squeeze of Economic Activity by Carry Trades Induced by Zero Interest Rates, World Cyclical Slow Growth and Global Recession Risk

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017

I World Inflation Waves

IA Appendix: Transmission of Unconventional Monetary Policy

IB1 Theory

IB2 Policy

IB3 Evidence

IB4 Unwinding Strategy

IC United States Inflation

IC Long-term US Inflation

ID Current US Inflation

IE Theory and Reality of Economic History, Cyclical Slow Growth Not Secular Stagnation

IIA United States Industrial Production

IIB Squeeze of Economic Activity by Carry Trades Induced by Zero Interest Rates

III World Financial Turbulence

IIIA Financial Risks

IIIE Appendix Euro Zone Survival Risk

IIIF Appendix on Sovereign Bond Valuation

IV Global Inflation

V World Economic Slowdown

VA United States

VB Japan

VC China

VD Euro Area

VE Germany

VF France

VG Italy

VH United Kingdom

VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets

VII Economic Indicators

VIII Interest Rates

IX Conclusion

References

Appendixes

Appendix I The Great Inflation

IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies

IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact

IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort

IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis

IIIGA Monetary Policy with Deficit Financing of Economic Growth

IIIGB Adjustment during the Debt Crisis of the 1980s

V World Economic Slowdown. Table V-1 is constructed with the database of the IMF (http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29) to show GDP in dollars in 2015 and the growth rate of real GDP of the world and selected regional countries from 2015 to 2018. The data illustrate the concept often repeated of “two-speed recovery” of the world economy from the recession of 2007 to 2009. The IMF has changed its forecast of the world economy to 3.1 percent in 2016 but accelerating to 3.5 percent in 2017 and 3.6 percent in 2018. Slow-speed recovery occurs in the “major advanced economies” of the G7 that account for $34,446 billion of world output of $74,197 billion, or 46.4 percent, but are projected to grow at much lower rates than world output, 1.8 percent on average from 2015 to 2019, in contrast with 3.4 percent for the world as a whole. While the world would grow 14.3 percent in the four years from 2015 to 2018, the G7 as a whole would grow 7.5 percent. The difference in dollars of 2015 is high: growing by 14.3 percent would add around $10.6 trillion of output to the world economy, or roughly, over two times the output of the economy of Japan of $4,382 billion but growing by 7.5 percent would add $5.6 trillion of output to the world, or about the output of Japan in 2015. The “two speed” concept is in reference to the growth of the 150 countries labeled as emerging and developing economies (EMDE) with joint output in 2015 of $29,333 billion, or 39.5 percent of world output. The EMDEs would grow cumulatively 18.8 percent or at the average yearly rate of 4.4 percent, contributing $5.5 trillion from 2015 to 2019 or the equivalent of somewhat more than one half the GDP of $11,226 billion of China in 2015. The final four countries in Table I-1 often referred as BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China), are large, rapidly growing emerging economies. Their combined output in 2015 adds to $16,479 billion, or 22.2 percent of world output, which is equivalent to 47.8 percent of the combined output of the major advanced economies of the G7.

Table I-1, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Real GDP Growth

GDP USD Billions 2015

Real GDP ∆%
2015

Real GDP ∆%
2016

Real GDP ∆%
2017

Real GDP ∆%
2018

World

74,197

3.4

3.1

3.5

3.6

G7

34,446

2.0

1.5

1.9

1.9

Canada

1,553

0.9

1.4

1.9

2.0

France

2,420

1.3

1.2

1.4

1.7

DE

3,365

1.5

1.8

1.6

1.5

Italy

1,826

0.8

0.9

0.8

0.8

Japan

4,382

1.2

1.0

1.3

0.6

UK

2,863

2.2

1.8

2.0

1.5

US

18,037

2.6

1.6

2.3

2.5

Euro Area

11,606

2.0

1.7

1.7

1.6

DE

3,365

1.5

1.8

1.6

1.5

France

2,420

1.3

1.2

1.4

1.7

Italy

1,826

0.8

0.9

0.8

0.8

POT

199

1.6

1.4

1.7

1.5

Ireland

283

26.3

5.2

3.5

3.2

Greece

195

-0.2

0.0

2.2

2.7

Spain

1,194

3.2

3.2

2.6

2.1

EMDE

29,333

4.2

4.1

4.5

4.8

Brazil

1,799

-3.8

-3.6

0.2

1.7

Russia

1,366

-2.8

-0.3

1.4

1.4

India

2,088

7.9

6.8

7.2

7.7

China

11,226

6.9

6.7

6.6

6.2

Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries); POT: Portugal

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook databank

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2017/01/weodata/index.aspx

Continuing high rates of unemployment in advanced economies constitute another characteristic of the database of the WEO (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2017/01/weodata/index.aspx). Table V-2 is constructed with the WEO database to provide rates of unemployment from 2014 to 2018 for major countries and regions. In fact, unemployment rates for 2014 in Table IV-2 are high for all countries: unusually high for countries with high rates most of the time and unusually high for countries with low rates most of the time. The rates of unemployment are particularly high in 2014 for the countries with sovereign debt difficulties in Europe: 13.9 percent for Portugal (POT), 11.3 percent for Ireland, 26.5 percent for Greece, 24.4 percent for Spain and 12.6 percent for Italy, which is lower but still high. The G7 rate of unemployment is 6.4 percent. Unemployment rates are not likely to decrease substantially if slow growth persists in advanced economies.

Table V-2, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Unemployment Rate as Percent of Labor Force

% Labor Force 2014

% Labor Force 2015

% Labor Force 2016

% Labor Force 2017

% Labor Force 2018

World

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

G7

6.4

5.8

5.4

5.3

5.2

Canada

6.9

6.9

7.0

6.9

6.8

France

10.3

10.4

10.0

9.6

9.3

DE

5.0

4.6

4.2

4.2

4.2

Italy

12.6

11.9

11.7

11.4

11.0

Japan

3.6

3.4

3.1

3.1

3.1

UK

6.2

5.4

4.9

4.9

5.1

US

6.2

5.3

4.9

4.7

4.6

Euro Area

11.7

10.9

10.0

9.4

9.1

DE

5.0

4.6

4.2

4.2

4.2

France

10.3

10.4

10.0

9.6

9.3

Italy

12.6

11.9

11.7

11.4

11.0

POT

13.9

12.4

11.1

10.6

10.1

Ireland

11.3

9.4

7.9

6.5

6.3

Greece

26.5

24.9

23.8

21.9

21.0

Spain

24.4

22.1

19.6

17.7

16.6

EMDE

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

Brazil

6.8

8.3

11.3

12.1

11.6

Russia

5.2

5.6

5.5

5.5

5.5

India

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

China

4.1

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.0

Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries)

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2017/01/weodata/index.aspx

Table V-3 provides the latest available estimates of GDP for the regions and countries followed in this blog from IQ2012 to IVQ2016 available now for all countries. There are estimates for all countries for IQ2017. There are preliminary estimates for IIQ2017. Growth is weak throughout most of the world.

Italy. Italy’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, the GDP of Italy increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2016, GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2015, GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy changed 0.0 percent in IQ2014 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2013 and fell 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2013 and fell 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.1 in IIQ2013 and fell 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 1.1 percent in IQ2013 and declined 2.9 percent relative to IQ2012. GDP had been growing during six consecutive quarters but at very low rates from IQ2010 to IIQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell in seven consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at increasingly higher rates of contraction from 0.5 percent in IIIQ2011 to 1.0 percent in IVQ2011, 0.9 percent in IQ2012, 0.8 percent in IIQ2012 and 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012. The pace of decline accelerated to minus 0.6 percent in IVQ2012 and minus 1.1 percent in IQ2013. GDP contracted cumulatively 5.3 percent in seven consecutive quarterly contractions from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at the annual equivalent rate of minus 3.1 percent. The yearly rate has fallen from 2.2 percent in IVQ2010 to minus 2.8 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.9 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.0 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.3 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.7 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.0 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.1 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.0 percent in IIIQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.1 percent in IVQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.2 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier. Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of Italy in IQ2017 of €395,783 million (http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/200568) is lower by 6.8 percent relative to €424,823.8 million in IQ2008. Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of Italy increased from €367,664.4 million in IQ1998 to €424,823.8 million in IQ2008 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.5 percent. The fiscal adjustment of Italy is significantly more difficult with the economy not growing especially on the prospects of increasing government revenue. The strategy is for reforms to improve productivity, facilitating future fiscal consolidation.

  • France. France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2012 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IIQ2012 and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2013 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2013 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2013 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2015, France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2015, the GDP of France increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France decreased 0.1 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, the GDP of France increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2017, the GDP of France increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier.

Table V-3, Percentage Changes of GDP Quarter on Prior Quarter and on Same Quarter Year Earlier, ∆%

IQ2012/IVQ2011

IQ2012/IQ2011

United States

QOQ: 0.7       

SAAR: 2.7

2.8

Japan

QOQ: 1.1

SAAR: 4.6

2.9

China

1.8

8.1

Euro Area

-0.1

-0.5

Germany

0.4

1.6

France

0.1

0.4

Italy

-0.9

-2.3

United Kingdom

0.4

1.2

IIQ2012/IQ2012

IIQ2012/IIQ2011

United States

QOQ: 0.5        

SAAR: 1.9

2.5

Japan

QOQ: -0.5
SAAR: -2.0

2.9

China

2.1

7.6

Euro Area

-0.3

-0.8

Germany

0.1

0.4 0.9 CA

France

-0.1

0.3

Italy

-0.8

-3.2

United Kingdom

-0.1

1.0

IIIQ2012/ IIQ2012

IIIQ2012/ IIIQ2011

United States

QOQ: 0.1 
SAAR: 0.5

2.4

Japan

QOQ: –0.4
SAAR: –1.6

0.0

China

1.9

7.5

Euro Area

-0.2

-1.0

Germany

0.2

0.2

France

0.1

0.2

Italy

-0.5

-3.2

United Kingdom

1.1

1.8

IVQ2012/IIIQ2012

IVQ2012/IVQ2011

United States

QOQ: 0.0
SAAR: 0.1

1.3

Japan

QOQ: 0.1

SAAR: 0.5

0.2

China

2.0

8.1

Euro Area

-0.5

-1.1

Germany

-0.5

-0.1

France

-0.1

0.0

Italy

-0.6

-2.8

United Kingdom

-0.2

1.3

IQ2013/IVQ2012

IQ2013/IQ2012

United States

QOQ: 0.7
SAAR: 2.8

1.3

Japan

QOQ: 1.2

SAAR: 5.1

0.7

China

1.8

7.9

Euro Area

-0.3

-1.2

Germany

-0.2

-1.5

France

0.0

0.0

Italy

-1.1

-2.9

UK

0.6

1.5

IIQ2013/IQ2013

IIQ2013/IIQ2012

United States

QOQ: 0.2

SAAR: 0.8

1.0

Japan

QOQ: 0.9

SAAR: 3.7

1.8

China

1.7

7.6

Euro Area

0.5

-0.4

Germany

0.9

0.9

France

0.7

0.8

Italy

0.1

-2.0

UK

0.5

2.1

IIIQ2013/IIQ2013

III/Q2013/  IIIQ2012

USA

QOQ: 0.8
SAAR: 3.1

1.7

Japan

QOQ: 0.7

SAAR: 2.7

2.8

China

2.2

7.9

Euro Area

0.3

0.0

Germany

0.5

1.2

France

0.0

0.6

Italy

0.3

-1.3

UK

0.8

1.7

IVQ2013/IIIQ2013

IVQ2013/IVQ2012

USA

QOQ: 1.0

SAAR: 4.0

2.7

Japan

QOQ: -0.1

SAAR: -0.4

2.7

China

1.7

7.7

Euro Area

0.3

0.8

Germany

0.4

1.4

France

0.4

1.1

Italy

0.0

-0.7

UK

0.5

2.4

IQ2014/IVQ2013

IQ2014/IQ2013

USA

QOQ -0.2

SAAR -0.9

1.7

Japan

QOQ: 1.1

SAAR: 4.5

3.1

China

1.5

7.4

Euro Area

0.3

1.4

Germany

0.9

3.0

France

0.1

1.2

Italy

0.0

0.4

UK

0.8

2.6

IIQ2014/IQ2014

IIQ2014/IIQ2013

USA

QOQ 1.1

SAAR 4.6

2.7

Japan

QOQ: -2.0

SAAR: -7.6

-0.3

China

1.8

7.5

Euro Area

0.2

1.1

Germany

-0.2

1.3

France

0.2

0.7

Italy

0.0

0.2

UK

0.9

3.1

IIIQ2014/IIQ2014

IIIQ2014/IIIQ2013

USA

QOQ: 1.3

SAAR: 5.2

3.2

Japan

QOQ: -0.1

SAAR: -0.4

-1.1

China

1.8

7.1

Euro Area

0.4

1.2

Germany

0.3

1.5

France

0.6

1.3

Italy

0.1

0.1

UK

0.8

3.1

IVQ2014/IIIQ2014

IVQ2014/IVQ2013

USA

QOQ: 0.5

SAAR: 2.0

2.7

Japan

QOQ: 0.8

SAAR: 3.0

-0.3

China

1.9

7.2

Euro Area

0.4

1.3

Germany

0.9

2.0

France

0.0

0.8

Italy

0.0

0.1

UK

0.8

3.5

IQ2015/IVQ2014

IQ2015/IQ2014

USA

QOQ: 0.8

SAAR: 3.2

3.8

Japan

QOQ: 1.2

SAAR: 4.8

-0.1

China

2.0

7.0

Euro Area

0.8

1.8

Germany

0.1

1.3

France

0.4

1.2

Italy

0.3

0.3

UK

0.3

2.8

IIQ2015/IQ2015

IIQ2015/IIQ2014

USA

QOQ: 0.7

SAAR: 2.7

3.3

Japan

QOQ: -0.1

SAAR: -0.5

1.7

China

1.7

7.0

Euro Area

0.3

1.9

Germany

0.4

1.8

France

0.0

0.9

Italy

0.4

0.7

UK

0.5

2.4

IIIQ2015/IIQ2015

IIIQ2015/IIIQ2014

USA

QOQ: 0.4

SAAR: 1.6

2.4

Japan

QOQ: 0.2

SAAR: 0.9

2.0

China

1.8

6.9

Euro Area

0.3

1.8

Germany

0.2

1.8

France

0.4

0.8

Italy

0.1

0.7

UK

0.3

1.8

IVQ2015/IIIQ2015

IVQ2015/IVQ2014

USA

QOQ: 0.1

SAAR: 0.5

2.0

Japan

QOQ: -0.2

SAAR: -0.8

0.9

China

1.5

6.8

Euro Area

0.4

1.9

Germany

0.4

2.1

France

0.3

1.0

Italy

0.2

1.0

UK

0.7

1.7

IQ2016/IVQ2015

IQ2016/IQ2015

USA

QOQ: 0.1

SAAR: 0.6

1.4

Japan

QOQ: 0.6

SAAR: 2.3

0.5

China

1.3

6.7

Euro Area

0.5

1.7

Germany

0.6

1.5

France

0.6

1.2

Italy

0.3

1.1

UK

0.2

1.6

IIQ2016/IQ2016

IIQ2016/IIQ2015

USA

QOQ: 0.6

SAAR: 2.2

1.2

Japan

QOQ: 0.3

SAAR: 1.4

0.9

China

1.9

6.7

Euro Area

0.3

1.7

Germany

0.5

3.3

France

-0.1

1.2

Italy

0.1

0.8

UK

0.6

1.7

IIIQ2016/IIQ2016

IIIQ2016/IIIQ2015

United States

QOQ: 0.7

SAAR: 2.8

1.5

Japan

QOQ: 0.3

SAAR: 1.3

1.1

China

1.8

6.7

Euro Area

0.4

1.7

Germany

0.3

1.7

France

0.2

0.9

Italy

0.3

1.0

UK

0.5

2.0

IVQ2016/IIIQ2016

IVQ2016/IVQ2015

United States

QOQ: 0.4

SAAR: 1.8

1.8

Japan

QOQ: 0.4

SAAR: 1.7

1.7

China

1.7

6.8

Euro Area

0.6

1.9

Germany

0.4

1.3

France

0.5

1.2

Italy

0.4

1.1

UK

0.7

1.9

IQ2017/IVQ2016

IQ2017/IQ2016

United States

QOQ: 0.3

SAAR: 1.2

2.0

Japan

QOQ: 0.4

SAAR: 1.5

1.5

China

1.3

6.9

Euro Area

0.5

1.9

Germany

0.7

3.2

France

0.5

1.1

Italy

0.4

1.2

UK

0.2

2.0

IIQ2017/IQ2017

IIQ2017/IIQ2016

USA

QOQ: 0.6

SAAR: 2.6

2.1

Japan

QOQ: 1.0

SAAR: 4.0

2.0

China

1.7

6.9

Euro Area

0.6

2.2

Germany

0.6

0.8

France

0.5

1.8

Italy

0.4

1.5

UK

0.3

1.7

QOQ: Quarter relative to prior quarter; SAAR: seasonally adjusted annual rate

Source: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.census.gov/aboutus/stat_int.html

Table V-4 provides two types of data: growth of exports and imports in the latest available months and in the past 12 months; and contributions of net trade (exports less imports) to growth of real GDP.

  • China. In Jul 2017, China exports increased 7.2 percent relative to a year earlier and imports increased 11.0 percent.
  • Germany. Germany’s exports decreased 2.8 percent in the month of Jun 2017 and increased 0.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2017. Germany’s imports decreased 4.5 percent in the month of Jun 2017 and increased 3.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2017. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to growth of GDP in IQ2012, contributed 0.4 percentage points in IIQ2012, contributed 0.3 percentage points in IIIQ2012, deducted 0.5 percentage points in IVQ2012, deducted 0.3 percentage points in IQ2013 and added 0.1 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded deducted 0.5 percentage points from Germany’s GDP growth in IIIQ2013 and added 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2014. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2014 and added 0.5 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 0.1 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.5 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points in IVQ2015 and contributed 0.1 percentage points in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.4 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017.
  • United Kingdom. Net trade contributed 0.7 percentage points in IIQ2013. In IIIQ2013, net trade deducted 1.7 percentage points from UK growth. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to UK value added in IVQ2013. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to UK value added in IQ2014 and 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2014 and added 0.3 percentage points in IVQ2014. Net traded deducted 0.4 percentage points from growth in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade added 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2015. Net trade deducted 1.1-percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 1.4 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade added 1.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.8 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2017.
  • France. France’s exports decreased 2.8 percent in Jun 2017 while imports decreased 2.0 percent. France’s exports increased 5.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2017 and imports increased 7.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Net traded added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IIIQ2012 and 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IQ2013 and added 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2013, deducting 1.7 percentage points in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IVQ2013 and deducted 0.1 percentage points in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IIQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to France’s GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.6 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015 and deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.3 percentage points to GDP in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP in IIIQ2016 and added 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP in IQ2017 and added 0.8 percentage points in IIQ2017.
  • United States. US exports increased 1.2 percent in Jun 2017 and goods exports increased 6.7 percent in Jan-Jun 2017 relative to a year earlier. Imports decreased 0.2 percent in Jun 2016 and goods imports increased 7.2 percent in Jan-Jun 2017 relative to a year earlier. Net trade added 0.28 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2012 and added 0.16 percentage points in IIIQ2012 and 0.58 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade added 0.30 percentage points to US GDP growth in IQ2013 and deducted 0.21 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded added 0.13 percentage points to US GDP growth in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 1.29 percentage points to US GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 1.14 percentage points from US GDP growth in IQ2014 and deducted 0.40 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade added 0.28 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2014. Net trade deducted 1.02 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 1.64 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.03 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.77 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.28 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.28 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.28 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade added 0.36 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade deducted 1.61 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2016.  Net trade added 0.22 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017.  Net trade added 0.18 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2017. Industrial production increased 0.2 percent in Jul 2017 and increased 0.4 percent in Jun 2017 after changing 0.0 percent in May 2017, with all data seasonally adjusted. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System conducted the annual revision of industrial production released on Mar 31, 2017 (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/revisions/Current/DefaultRev.htm):

“The Federal Reserve has revised its index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization.[1] On net, the revisions were small, and the contour of total IP is little changed. Total IP is still reported to have moved up about 22 percent from the end of the recession in mid-2009 through late 2014, to have declined in 2015, and to have moved sideways in 2016. The most notable difference between the current and the previous estimates is that total IP is now reported to have decreased about 2 3/4 percent in 2015, whereas it previously showed a decline of about 1 3/4 percent.[2] The incorporation of detailed data for manufacturing from the U.S. Census Bureau's 2015 Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM) accounts for the majority of the differences between the current and the previously published estimates. Capacity for total industry is now reported to have expanded about 1 percent in 2015, a lower rate of increase than was reported earlier. Capacity was little changed in 2016 and is expected to increase 1 percent in 2017. Compared with prior reports, the rates of change in 2016 and 2017 are now a little smaller. In the fourth quarter of 2016, capacity utilization for total industry stood at 75.8 percent, a rate 0.4 percentage point higher than previously published but still 4.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2016) average. Relative to earlier estimates, the utilization rates in recent years are now a little higher.” Manufacturing fell 22.3 from the peak in Jun 2007 to the trough in Apr 2009 and increased 15.5 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Dec 2016. Manufacturing grew 16.9 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Jul 2017. Manufacturing in Jul 2017 is lower by 9.3 percent relative to the peak in Jun 2007. The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IIQ2017 would have accumulated to 32.4 percent. GDP in IQ2017 would be $19,849.1 billion (in constant dollars of 2009) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $2838.4 billion than actual $17,010.7 billion. There are about two trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 21.5 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 12.8 percent of the effective labor force (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/data-dependent-monetary-policy-with.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/rising-yields-twenty-two-million.html). US GDP in IQ2017 is 14.3 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $14,991.8 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $17,010.7 billion in IIQ2017 or 13.5 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.3 percent. Professor John H. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. Cochrane (2016May02) measures GDP growth in the US at average 3.5 percent per year from 1950 to 2000 and only at 1.76 percent per year from 2000 to 2015 with only at 2.0 percent annual equivalent in the current expansion. Cochrane (2016May02) proposes drastic changes in regulation and legal obstacles to private economic activity. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 3.1 percent per year from Jul 1919 to Jul 2017. Growth at 3.1 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output from 108.2393 in Dec 2007 to 145.0407 in Jul 2017. The actual index NSA in Jul 2017 is 102.1551, which is 29.6 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 2.0 percent between Dec 1986 and Jul 2017. Using trend growth of 2.0 percent per year, the index would increase to 130.8588 in Jul 2017. The output of manufacturing at 102.1551 in Jul 2017 is 21.9 percent below trend under this alternative calculation.

Table V-4, Growth of Trade and Contributions of Net Trade to GDP Growth, ∆% and % Points

Exports
M ∆%

Exports 12 M ∆%

Imports
M ∆%

Imports 12 M ∆%

USA

1.2 Jun

6.7

Jan-Jun

-0.2 Jun

7.2

Jan-Jun

Japan

Jul 2017

13.4

Jun 2017

9.7

May 2017

14.9

Apr 2017

7.5

Mar 2017

12.0

Feb 2017

11.3

Jan 2017

1.3

Dec 2016

5.4

Nov 2016 -0.4

Oct 2016

-10.3

Sep 2016

-6.9

Aug 2016

9.6

Jul 2016

-14.0

Jun 2016

-7.8

May 2016

-11.3

Apr 2016

-10.1

Mar 2016

-6.8

Feb 2016

-4.0

Jan 2016

-12.9

Dec 2015

-8.0

Nov 2015

-3.3

Oct 2015

-2.1

Sep 2015

0.6

Aug

3.1

Jul 2015

7.6

Jun 2015

9.5

May 2015

2.4

Apr

8.0

Mar

8.5

Feb

2.4

Jan

17.0

Dec

12.9

Nov

4.9

Oct

9.6

Sep

6.9

Aug

-1.3

Jul

3.9

Jun

-2.0

May 2014

-2.7

Apr 2014

5.1

Mar 2014

1.8

Feb 2014

9.5

Jan 2014

9.5

Dec 2013

15.3

Nov 2013

18.4

Oct 2013

18.6

Sep 2013

11.5

Aug 2013

14.7

Jul 2013

12.2

Jun 2013 7.4

May 2013

10.1

Apr 2013

3.8

Mar 2013

1.1

Feb 2013

-2.9

Jan 2013 6.4

Dec -5.8

Nov -4.1

Oct -6.5

Sep -10.3

Aug -5.8

Jul -8.1

Jul 2017

16.3

Jun 2017

15.5

May 2017

17.8

Apr 2017

15.1

Mar 2017

15.8

Feb 2017

1.2

Jan 2017

8.5

Dec 2016

-2.6

Nov 2016

-8.8

Oct 2016

-16.5

Sep 2016

-16.3

Aug 2016

-17.3

Jul 2016

-24.7

Jun 2016

-18.8

May 2016

-13.8

Apr 2016

-23.3

Mar 2016

-14.9

Feb 2016

-14.2

Jan 2016

-18.0

Dec 2015

-18.0

Nov 2015

-10.2

Oct 2015

-13.4

Sep 2015

-11.1

Aug

-3.1

Jul 2015

-3.2

Jun 2015

-2.9

May 2015

-8.7

Apr

-4.2

Mar

-14.5

Feb

-3.6

Jan

-9.0

Dec

1.9

Nov

-1.7

Oct

2.7

Sep

6.2

Aug

-1.5

Jul

2.3

Jun

8.4

May 2014

-3.6

Apr 2013

3.4

Mar 2014

18.1

Feb 2014

9.0

Jan 2014

25.0

Dec 2013 24.7

Nov 2013

21.1

Oct 2013

26.1

Sep 2013

16.5

Aug 2013

16.0

Jul 2013

19.6

Jun 2013

11.8

May 2013

10.0

Apr 2013

9.4

Mar 2013

5.5

Feb 2013

7.3

Jan 2013 7.3

Dec 1.9

Nov 0.8

Oct -1.6

Sep 4.1

Aug -5.4

Jul 2.1

China

Jan-Dec 2016 -7.7

Jan-Dec

2015 -2.8

2017

Jul

7.2

Jun

11.3

May

8.7

Apr

8.0

Mar

16.4

Feb

-1.3

Jan

7.9

2016

Dec

3.1

Nov

0.1

Oct

-7.3

Sep

-10.0

Aug

-2.8

Jul

-4.4

Jun

-4.8

May

-4.1

Apr

-1.8

Mar

11.5

Feb

-25.4

Jan

-11.2

2015

-1.4 Dec

-6.8 Nov

-6.9 Oct

-3.7 Sep

-5.5 Aug

-8.3 Jul

2.8 Jun

-2.5 May

-6.4 Apr

-15.0 Mar

48.3 Feb

-3.3 Jan

2014

9.7 Dec

4.7 Nov

11.6 Oct

15.3 Sep

9.4 Aug

14.5 Jul

7.2 Jun

7.0 May

0.9 Apr

-6.6 Mar

-18.1 Feb

10.6 Jan

2013

4.3 Dec

12.7 Nov

5.6 Oct

-0.3 Sep

7.2 Aug

5.1 Jul

-3.1 Jun

1.0 May

14.7 Apr

10.0 Mar

21.8 Feb

25.0 Jan

Jan-Dec 2016 -5.5

Jan-Dec 2015 -14.1

2017

Jul

11.0

Jun

17.2

May

14.8

Apr

11.9

Mar

20.3

Feb

38.1

Jan

16.7

2016

Dec

-7.7

Nov

6.7

Oct

-1.4

Sep

-1.9

Aug

1.5

Jul

-12.5

Jun

-2.8

May

-0.4

Apr

-10.6

Mar

-7.6

Feb

-13.8

Jan

-18.8

2015

-7.6 Dec

-8.7 Nov

-18.8 Oct

-20.4 Sep

-13.8 Aug

-8.1 Jul

-6.1 Jun

-17.6 May

-12.7 Mar

-20.5 Feb

-19.9 Jan

2014

-2.4 Dec

-6.7 Nov

4.6 Oct

7.0 Sep

-2.4 Aug

-1.6 Jul

5.5 Jun

-1.6 May

-0.8 Apr

-11.3 Mar

10.1 Feb

10.0 Jan

2013

8.3 Dec

5.3 Nov

7.6 Oct

7.4 Sep

7.0 Aug

10.9 Jul

-0.7 Jun

-0.3 May

16.8 Apr

14.1 Mar

-15.2 Feb

28.8 Jan

Euro Area

3.9 12-M Jun

7.9 Jan-Jun

6.2 12-M Jun

11.6 Jan-Jun

Germany

-2.8 Jun CSA

0.7 Jun

-4.5 Jun CSA

3.6 Jun

France

Jun

-2.8

5.3

-2.0

7.9

Italy Jun

-1.0

8.2

-2.9

9.9

UK

-0.7 Jun

10.0 Apr 17-Jun 17 /Apr 16-Jun 16

3.3 Jun

10.2 Apr 17-Jun 17 /Apr 16-Jun 17

Net Trade % Points GDP Growth

Points

USA

IIQ2017

0.18

IQ2017

0.22

IVQ2016

-1.61

IIIQ2016

0.36

IIQ2016

0.28

IQ2016

-0.28

IVQ2015

-0.28

IIIQ2015

-0.77

IIQ2015

-0.03

IQ2015

-1.64

IVQ2014

-1.02

IIIQ2014

0.28

IIQ2014

-0.40

IQ2014

-1.14

IVQ2013

1.29

IIIQ2013

0.13

IIQ2013

-0.21

IQ2013

0.30

IVQ2012 +0.58

IIIQ2012

0.16

IIQ2012 0.28

IQ2012 -0.02

Japan

0.7

IQ2012

-2.0 IIQ2012

-1.9

IIIQ2012

-0.3 IVQ2012

1.4

IQ2013

-0.1

IIQ2013

-1.3

IIIQ2013

-2.2

IVQ2013

-0.8

IQ2014

4.0

IIQ2014

-0.2

IIIQ2014

1.5

IVQ2014

0.0

IQ2015

-0.5

IIQ2015

-0.3

IIIQ2015

0.0

IVQ2015

1.4

IQ2016

0.2

IIQ2016

1.6

IIIQ2016

1.3

IVQ2016

0.5

IQ2017

-1.1

IIQ2017

Germany

IQ2012

0.8 IIQ2012 0.4 IIIQ2012 0.3 IVQ2012

-0.5

IQ2013

-0.3 IIQ2013

0.1

IIIQ2013

-0.5

IVQ2013

0.5

IQ2014

0.0

IIQ2014

0.2

IIIQ2014

0.5

IVQ2014

-0.3

IQ2015

-0.1

IIQ2015

0.6

IIIQ2015

-0.5

IVQ2015

-0.6

IQ2016

0.1

IIQ2016

0.4

IIIQ2016

-0.4

IVQ2016

-0.2

IQ2017

0.4

France

0.1 IIIQ2012

0.1 IVQ2012

-0.1 IQ2013

0.3

IIQ2013 -1.7

IIIQ2013

0.1

IVQ2013

-0.1

IQ2014

-0.2

IIQ2014

-0.2

IIIQ2014

0.2

IVQ2014

-0.2

IQ2015

0.4

IIQ2015

-0.6

IIIQ2015

-0.7

IVQ2015

-0.1

IQ2016

0.3

IIQ2016

-0.6

IIIQ2016

0.1

IVQ2016

-0.6

IQ2017

0.8

IIQ2017

UK

0.7

IIQ2013

-1.7

IIIQ2013

0.1

IVQ2013

0.8

IQ2014

0.3

IIQ2014

-0.7

IIIQ2014

0.3

IVQ2014

-0.4

IQ2015

0.5

IIQ2015

-0.4

IIIQ2015

1.1

IVQ2015

-1.1

IQ2016

0.3

IIQ2016

-1.4

IIIQ2016

1.7

IVQ2016

-0.8

IQ2017

Sources: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/

The geographical breakdown of exports and imports of Japan with selected regions and countries is in Table V-5 for Jul 2017. The share of Asia in Japan’s trade is close to one-half for 53.8 percent of exports and 49.8 percent of imports. Within Asia, exports to China are 18.7 percent of total exports and imports from China 24.2 percent of total imports. While exports of Japan to China increased 17.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2017, imports from China increased 13.1 percent. The largest export market for Japan in Jul 2017 is the US with share of 20.3 percent of total exports, which is close to that of China, and share of imports from the US of 11.1 percent in total imports. Japan’s exports to the US increased 11.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2017 and imports from the US increased 13.9 percent. Western Europe has share of 11.3 percent in Japan’s exports and of 12.1 percent in imports. Rates of growth of exports of Japan in Jul 2017 are 11.5 percent for exports to the US, 38.5 percent for exports to Brazil and 12.2 percent for exports to Germany. Comparisons relative to 2011 may have some bias because of the effects of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Deceleration of growth in China and the US and threat of recession in Europe can reduce world trade and economic activity. Growth rates of imports in the 12 months ending in Jul 2017 are mixed. Imports from Asia increased 18.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2017 while imports from China increased 13.1 percent. Data are in millions of yen, which may have effects of recent depreciation of the yen relative to the United States dollar (USD) and revaluation of the dollar relative to the euro.

Table V-5, Japan, Value and 12-Month Percentage Changes of Exports and Imports by Regions and Countries, ∆% and Millions of Yen

Jul 2017

Exports
Millions Yen

12 months ∆%

Imports Millions Yen

12 months ∆%

Total

6,494,889

13.4

6,076,118

16.3

Asia

3,495,122

% Total 53.8

14.8

3,026,099 % Total 49.8

18.1

China

1,211,440

% Total 18.7

17.6

1,467,517 % Total 24.2

13.1

USA

1,318,734

% Total 20.3

11.5

671,747 % Total

11.1

13.9

Canada

90,627

39.0

104,227

37.6

Brazil

36,135

38.5

66,482

28.1

Mexico

114,724

20.8

45,551

-27.8

Western Europe

736,329 % Total 11.3

8.9

732,788 % Total 12.1

2.6

Germany

180,341

12.2

203,684

7.0

France

55,125

3.2

87,850

2.4

UK

141,010

7.0

62,270

21.4

Middle East

171,539

-7.8

631,177

15.2

Australia

157,287

10.3

353,847

36.1

Source: Japan, Ministry of Finance http://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/info/index_e.htm

World trade projections of the IMF are in Table V-6. There is increasing growth of the volume of world trade of goods and services from 3.8 percent in 2017 to 4.1 percent in 2017, increasing to 4.3 percent in 2018. Growth improves to 4.2 percent on average from 2017 to 2021. World trade would be slower for advanced economies while emerging and developing economies (EMDE) experience faster growth. World economic slowdown would be more challenging with lower growth of world trade.

Table V-6, IMF, Projections of World Trade, USD Billions, USD/Barrel and Annual ∆%

2017

2018

2019

Average ∆% 2017-2021

World Trade Volume (Goods and Services)

3.8

4.1

4.3

4.2

Exports Goods & Services

3.6

4.0

4.1

4.0

Imports Goods & Services

3.9

4.2

4.4

4.3

Average Oil Price USD/Barrel

42.84

55.23

55.06

Average ∆% 2009-2018

75.41

Average Annual ∆% Export Unit Value of Manufactures

-5.4

2.8

1.7

Average ∆% 2009-2018

0.0

Exports of Goods & Services

2016

2017

2018

Average ∆% 2009-2018

EMDE

2.5

3.6

4.3

3.6

G7

2.1

3.5

3.2

2.8

Imports Goods & Services

EMDE

1.9

4.5

4.3

3.9

G7

2.4

4.0

4.0

2.6

Terms of Trade of Goods & Services

EMDE

-1.2

1.3

-0.4

-0.5

G7

0.9

-0.5

0.1

0.3

Terms of Trade of Goods

EMDE

-1.4

1.4

-0.4

-0.5

G7

1.2

-0.2

0.3

0.3

Notes: Commodity Price Index includes Fuel and Non-Fuel Prices; Commodity Industrial Inputs Price includes agricultural raw materials and metal prices; Oil price is average of WTI, Brent and Dubai

Source: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook databank

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2017/01/weodata/index.aspx

The JP Morgan Global All-Industry Output Index of the JP Morgan Manufacturing and Services PMI™, produced by JP Morgan and HIS Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM, with high association with world GDP, decreased to 53.5 in Jul from 53.7 in Jun, indicating expansion at slower rate (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/50820d7aa6c546fcaa03652513e3be15). This index has remained above the contraction territory of 50.0 during 58 consecutive months. The employment index increased from 52.2 in Jun to 52.4 in Jul with input prices rising at unchanged rate, new orders increasing at faster rate and output increasing at slower rate (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/50820d7aa6c546fcaa03652513e3be15). David Hensley, Director of Global Economic Coordination at JP Morgan, finds consistent growth with recent improvement (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/50820d7aa6c546fcaa03652513e3be15). The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI™, produced by JP Morgan and IHS Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM, increased to 52.7 in Jul from 52.6 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/5f1ec485989d4169956c18e1129c0f27). New export orders increased. David Hensley, Director of Global Economic Coordination at JP Morgan, finds consistent growth (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/5f1ec485989d4169956c18e1129c0f27). The Markit Brazil Composite Output Index increased from 48.5 in Jun to 49.4 in Jul, indicating milder contraction in activity of Brazil’s private sector (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/03d748e08d7943308e8cda03296fd61f). The Markit Brazil Services Business Activity index, compiled by Markit, increased from 47.4 in Jun to 48.8 in Jul, indicating contracting services activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/03d748e08d7943308e8cda03296fd61f). Pollyanna de Lima, Economist at Markit, finds services contracting at milder pace (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/03d748e08d7943308e8cda03296fd61f). The HIS Markit Brazil Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ IndexTM (PMI™) decreased from 50.5 in Jun to 50.0 in Jul, indicating manufacturing at neutral 50.0 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/53d55a6c88294c4eaccd031965c2462b). Pollyanna De Lima, Economist at IHS Markit, finds slowing direction in manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/53d55a6c88294c4eaccd031965c2462b).

VA United States. The HIS Markit Flash US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) seasonally adjusted increased to 53.2 in Jul from 52.0 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b4b05dac489d413a9f378d096bd65064). New export orders increased. The HIS Markit Flash US Services PMI™ Business Activity Index did not change from 54.2 in Jun to 54.2 in Jul (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b4b05dac489d413a9f378d096bd65064). The IHS Markit Flash US Composite PMI™ Output Index increased from 53.9 in Jun to 54.2 in Jul (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b4b05dac489d413a9f378d096bd65064). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds that the surveys are consistent with growth at around annualized 2 percent (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b4b05dac489d413a9f378d096bd65064). The HIS Markit US Composite PMI™ Output Index of Manufacturing and Services increased to 54.6 in Jul from 53.9 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f32cc03ea19e4960a9cda3e0ef2d0d4d). The HIS Markit US Services PMI™ Business Activity Index increased from 54.2 in Jun to 54.7 in Jul (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f32cc03ea19e4960a9cda3e0ef2d0d4d). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds the indexes suggesting growth (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f32cc03ea19e4960a9cda3e0ef2d0d4d). The HIS Markit US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) increased to 53.3 in Jul from 52.0 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/851b3ec92e414a9ea76701a58df891a2). New foreign orders decreased. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at HIS Markit, finds improving manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/851b3ec92e414a9ea76701a58df891a2). The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Report on Business® decreased 1.9-percentage points from 57.8 in Jun to 56.3 in Jul, which indicates slower growth (https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm?SSO=1). The index of new export orders decreased 2.0 percentage points from 59.5 in Jun to 57.5 in Jul. The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report on Business® PMI decreased 3.5 percentage points from 57.4 in Jun to 53.9 in Jul, indicating growth of business activity/production during 96 consecutive months, while the index of new orders decreased 5.4 percentage points from 60.5 in Jun to 55.1 in Jul (https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/files/ISMReport/ROB201707NMI.pdf). Table USA provides the country economic indicators for the US.

Table USA, US Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index

Jul 12 months NSA ∆%: 1.7; ex food and energy ∆%: 1.7 Jul month SA ∆%: 0.1; ex food and energy ∆%: 0.1
Blog 8/20/17

Producer Price Index

Finished Goods

Jul 12-month NSA ∆%: 2.2; ex food and energy ∆% 1.8
Jul month SA ∆% -0.2; ex food and energy ∆%: 0.1

Final Demand

Jul 12-month NSA ∆%: 1.9; ex food and energy ∆% 1.8 Jul month SA ∆% -0.1; ex food and energy ∆%: -0.1
Blog 8/13/17 8/20/17

PCE Inflation

Jul 12-month NSA ∆%: headline 1.4; ex food and energy ∆% 1.5
Blog 8/6/17

Employment Situation

Household Survey: Jul Unemployment Rate SA 4.3%
Blog calculation People in Job Stress Jun: 21.5 million NSA, 12.8% of Labor Force
Establishment Survey:
Jul Nonfarm Jobs +209,000; Private +205,000 jobs created 
May 12-month Average Hourly Earnings Inflation Adjusted ∆%: 1.0
Blog 8/6/17

Nonfarm Hiring

Nonfarm Hiring fell from 63.5 million in 2006 to 58.7 million in 2014 or by 4.8 million and to 62.7 million in 2016 or by 0.8 million
Private-Sector Hiring Jun 2017 5.664 million higher by 0.9 percent than 5.614 million in Jun 2006 while population grew 26.3 million or 11.5 percent
Blog 8/13/17

GDP Growth

BEA Revised National Income Accounts
IQ2012/IQ2011 ∆%: 2.8

IIQ2012/IIQ2011 2.5

IIIQ2012/IIIQ2011 2.4

IVQ2012/IVQ2011 1.3

IQ2013/IQ2012 1.3

IIQ2013/IIQ2012 1.0

IIIQ2013/IIIQ2012 1.7

IVQ2013/IVQ2012 2.7

IQ2014/IQ2013 1.7

IIQ2014/IIQ2013 2.7

IIIQ2014/IIIQ2013 3.2

IVQ2014/IVQ2013 2.7

IQ2015/IQ2014 3.8

IIQ2015/IIQ2014 3.3

IIIQ2015/IIIQ2014 2.4

IVQ2015/IVQ2014 2.0

IQ2016/IQ2015 1.4

IIQ2016/IIQ2015 1.2

IIIQ2016/IIIQ2015: 1.5

IVQ2016/IVQ2015 1.8

IQ2017/IQ2016 2.0

IIQ2017/IIQ2016 2.1

IQ2012 SAAR 2.7

IIQ2012 SAAR 1.9

IIIQ2012 SAAR 0.5

IVQ2012 SAAR 0.1

IQ2013 SAAR 2.8

IIQ2013 SAAR 0.8

IIIQ2013 SAAR 3.1

IVQ2013 SAAR 4.0

IQ2014 SAAR -0.9

IIQ2014 SAAR 4.6

IIIQ2014 SAAR 5.2

IVQ2014 SAAR 2.0

IQ2015 SAAR 3.2

IIQ2015 SAAR: 2.7

IIIQ2015 SAAR: 1.6

IVQ2015 SAAR: 0.5

IQ2016 SAAR: 0.6

IIQ2016 SAAR: 2.2

IIIQ2016 SAAR: 2.8

IVQ2016 SAAR 1.8

IQ2017 SAAR 1.2

IIQ2017 SAAR 2.6
Blog 7/30/17

Real Private Fixed Investment

SAAR IIQ2017 ∆% 2.2 IVQ2007 to IIQ2017: 11.8% Blog 7/30/17

Corporate Profits

IQ2017 SAAR: Corporate Profits -2.3; Undistributed Profits -8.5 Blog 7/2/17

Personal Income and Consumption

Jun month ∆% SA Real Disposable Personal Income (RDPI) SA ∆% -0.1
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (RPCE): 0.0
12-month Jun NSA ∆%:
RDPI: 1.2; RPCE ∆%: 2.4
Blog 8/6/17

Quarterly Services Report

IQ17/IQ16 NSA ∆%:
Information 4.2

Financial & Insurance 7.3

Earlier Data:
Blog 3/22/15

Employment Cost Index

Compensation Private IQ2017 SA ∆%: 0.5 Mar 12 months ∆%: 1.8

Earlier Data:
Blog 2/1/15

Industrial Production

Jul month SA ∆%: 0.2
Jul 12 months SA ∆%: 2.2

Manufacturing Jul SA -0.1 ∆% Jul 12 months SA ∆% 1.2, NSA 1.5
Capacity Utilization: 76.7
Blog 8/20/17

Productivity and Costs

Nonfarm Business Productivity IIQ2017∆% SAAE 0.9; IQ2017/IQ2016 ∆% 1.2; Unit Labor Costs SAAE IQ2017 ∆% 0.6; IQ2017/IQ2016 ∆%: -0.2

Blog 8/13/17

New York Fed Manufacturing Index

General Business Conditions from Jul 9.8 to Aug 25.2
New Orders: From Jul 13.3 to Aug 20.6
Blog 8/20/17

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index

General Index from Jul 19.5 to Aug 18.9
New Orders from Jul 2.1 to Aug 20.4
Blog 8/20/17

Manufacturing Shipments and Orders

Jun Orders SA ∆% 3.0 Ex Transport -0.2

Jan-Jun 17/Jan-Jun 16 NSA New Orders ∆% 5.6 Ex transport 5.7

Earlier data:
Blog 4/5/15

Durable Goods

May New Orders SA ∆%: -1.1; ex transport ∆%: 0.1
Jan-May 17/Jan-Apr 16 New Orders NSA ∆%: 2.8; ex transport ∆% 4.8

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/26/15

Sales of New Motor Vehicles

Jan-Jul 2017 9,867,276; Jan-Jul 2016 10,158,789. Jul 17 SAAR 16.77 million, Jun 17 SAAR 16.70 million, Jul 2016 SAAR 17.83 million

Blog 8/6/17

Sales of Merchant Wholesalers

Jan-Jun 2017/Jan-Jun 2016 NSA ∆%: Total 7.6; Durable Goods: 7.1; Nondurable
Goods: 8.0

EARLIER DATA:
Blog 4/12/15

Sales and Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers

Jun 17 12-M NSA ∆%: Sales Total Business 4.5; Manufacturers 4.0
Retailers 3.8; Merchant Wholesalers 5.6
Blog 8/20/17

Sales for Retail and Food Services

Jan-Jul 2017/Jan-Jul 2016 ∆%: Retail and Food Services 3.9; Retail ∆% 4.0
Blog 8/20/17

Value of Construction Put in Place

SAAR month SA Jun ∆%: 1.6 Jan-Jun 17/Jan-Jun 16 NSA: 4.8

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/5/15

Case-Shiller Home Prices

May 2017/May 2016 ∆% NSA: 10 Cities 4.9; 20 Cities: 5.7; National: 5.6
∆% May SA: 10 Cities 0.0; 20 Cities: 0.1
Blog 7/30/17

FHFA House Price Index Purchases Only

May SA ∆% 0.4;
12 month NSA ∆%: 6.9
Blog 7/30/17

New House Sales

Jun 2017 month SAAR ∆%: 0.8
Jan-Jun 2017/Jan-Jun 2016 NSA ∆%: 11.0
Blog 7/30/17

Housing Starts and Permits

Jul Starts month SA ∆% minus 4.8; Permits ∆%: -4.1
Jan-Jul 2017/Jan-Jul 2016 NSA ∆% Starts 2.4; Permits  ∆% 6.5

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/19/15

Rate of Homeownership

IIQ2017: 63.7

Blog 7/30/17

Trade Balance

Balance Jun SA -$43,642 million versus May -$46,391 million
Exports Jun SA ∆%: 1.2 Imports Jun SA ∆%: -0.2
Goods Exports Jan-Jun 2017/Jan-Jun 2016 NSA ∆%: 6.7
Goods Imports Jan-Jun 2017/Jan-Jun 2016 NSA ∆%: 7.2
Blog 8/13/17

Export and Import Prices

Jul 12-month NSA ∆%: Imports 1.5; Exports 0.8

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/12/15

Consumer Credit

Jun ∆% annual rate: Total 3.9; Revolving 4.9; Nonrevolving 3.5

Earlier Data:
Blog 5/10/15

Net Foreign Purchases of Long-term Treasury Securities

Jun Net Foreign Purchases of Long-term US Securities: $15.1 billion
Major Holders of Treasury Securities: China $1146.5 billion; Japan $1090.8 billion; Total Foreign US Treasury Holdings Jun $6171.3 billion
Blog 8/20/17

Treasury Budget

Fiscal Year 2017/2016 ∆% Jul: Receipts 2.3; Outlays 3.6; Individual Income Taxes 3.2
Deficit Fiscal Year 2011 $1,300 billion

Deficit Fiscal Year 2012 $1,087 billion

Deficit Fiscal Year 2013 $680 billion

Deficit Fiscal Year 2014 $485 billion

Deficit Fiscal Year 2015 $439 billion

Deficit Fiscal Year 2016 $587

Blog 8/13/2017

CBO Budget and Economic Outlook

2012 Deficit $1087 B 6.8% GDP Debt $11,281 B 70.4% GDP

2013 Deficit $680 B, 4.1% GDP Debt $11,983 B 72.6% GDP

2014 Deficit $485 B 2.8% GDP Debt $12,780 B 74.2% GDP

2015 Deficit $438 B 2.5% GDP Debt $13,117 B 73.3% GDP

2016 Deficit $587 3.2% GDP Debt $14,168.4 B 77.0% GDP

2027 Deficit $1,408 B, 5.0 % GDP Debt $24,893 B 88.9% GDP

2047: Long-term Debt/GDP 150.0%

Blog 8/26/12 11/18/12 2/10/13 9/22/13 2/16/14 8/24/14 9/14/14 3/1/15 6/21/15 1/3/16 4/10/16 7/24/16 1/8/17 4/2/17

Commercial Banks Assets and Liabilities

May 2017 SAAR ∆%: Securities 6.3 Loans 5.4 Cash Assets -31.6 Deposits 8.4

Blog 6/25/17

Flow of Funds Net Worth of Families and Nonprofits

IQ2017 ∆ since 2007

Assets +$29,049.3 BN

Nonfinancial $4,788.5 BN

Real estate $3,592.4 BN

Financial +24,260.8 BN

Net Worth +$28,330.0 BN

Blog 6/25/17

Current Account Balance of Payments

IQ2017 -93,446 MM

% GDP 2.5

Blog 7/16/17

Collapse of United States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation

Blog 7/23/17

Squeeze of Economic Activity by Carry Trades

Blog 8/20/17

IMF View

World Real Economic Growth 2016 ∆% 3.5 Blog 4/30/17

Income, Poverty and Health Insurance in the United States

43.123 Million Below Poverty in 2015, 13.5% of Population

Median Family Income CPI-2015 Adjusted $56,516 in 2015 back to 1999 Levels

Uncovered by Health Insurance 28.966 Million in 2015

Blog 9/25/16

Monetary Policy and Cyclical Valuation of Risk Financial Assets

Blog 1/15/2017

Rules versus Discretionary Authorities in Monetary Policy

Blog 1/1/2017

Links to blog comments in Table USA: 8/13/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million_40.html

8/6/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/data-dependent-monetary-policy-with.html

7/30/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/data-dependent-monetary-policy-with_30.html

7/23/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/dollar-devaluation-and-valuation-of.html

7/16/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

7/9/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/rising-yields-twenty-two-million.html

7/2/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/dollar-devaluation-and-rising-yields.html

6/25/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/united-states-commercial-banks-united.htm

6/18/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/fomc-interest-rate-increase-planned.html

6/11/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/flattening-us-treasury-yield-curve.html

6/4/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

5/28/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

4/30/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/04/dollar-devaluation-mediocre-cyclical.html

4/2/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/04/mediocre-cyclical-economic-growth-with.html

1/15/17 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/unconventional-monetary-policy-and.html

1/1/17 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/rules-versus-discretionary-authorities.html

12/25/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

10/16/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/10/imf-view-of-world-economy-and-finance.html

9/25/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/the-economic-outlook-is-inherently.html

7/24/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/unresolved-us-balance-of-payments.html

4/10/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/04/proceeding-cautiously-in-reducing.html

1/17/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/unconventional-monetary-policy-and.html

1/3/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/weakening-equities-and-dollar.html

10/11/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/10/interest-rate-policy-uncertainty-imf.html

6/21/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/fluctuating-financial-asset-valuations.html

5/10/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/quite-high-equity-valuations-and.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html

9/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitics-monetary-policy-and.html

8/24/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/monetary-policy-world-inflation-waves.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

9/22/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

2/10/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/united-states-unsustainable-fiscal.html

Table VA-1 provides the value of total sales of US business (manufacturers, retailers and merchant wholesalers) and monthly and 12-month percentage changes. Sales of manufacturers decreased 0.2 percent in Jun and increased 0.3 percent in May, increasing 4.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2017. Sales of retailers increased 0.3 percent in Jun and changed 0.0 percent in May, increasing 3.8 percent in 12 months. Sales of merchant wholesalers increased 0.7 percent in Jun, decreasing 0.1 percent in May and increasing 5.6 percent in 12 months. Total business sales increased 0.3 percent in Jun and increased 0.1 percent in May, increasing 4.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2017.

Table VA-1, US, Percentage Changes for Sales of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers

Jun 17/May 17
∆% SA

Jun 2017
Millions of Dollars NSA

May 17/Apr 17 ∆% SA

Jun 17/ Jun 16
∆% NSA

Total Business

0.3

1,418,128

0.1

4.5

Manufacturers

-0.2

501,588

0.3

4.0

Retailers

0.3

426,329

0.0

3.8

Merchant Wholesalers

0.7

490,211

-0.1

5.6

Source: US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/mtis/

Chart VA-1 of the US Census Bureau provides total US sales of manufacturing, retailers and wholesalers seasonally adjusted (SA) in millions of dollars. The series with adjustment evens fluctuations following seasonal patterns. There is sharp recovery from the global recession in a robust trend, which is mixture of price and quantity effects because data are not adjusted for price changes. There is stability in the final segment with subdued prices with data not adjusted for price changes. There is recovery in the recent segment with vacillation.

Chart VA-1, US, Total Business Sales of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, SA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 1992-Jun 2017

Source: US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/mtis/

Chart VA-2 of the US Census Bureau provides total US sales of manufacturing, retailers and wholesalers not seasonally adjusted (NSA) in millions of dollars. The series without seasonal adjustment shows sharp jagged behavior because of monthly fluctuations following seasonal patterns. There is sharp recovery from the global recession in a robust trend, which is mixture of price and quantity effects because data are not adjusted for price changes. There is stability in the final segment with monthly marginal weakness in data without adjustment for price changes.

Chart VA-2, US, Total Business Sales of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, NSA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 1992-Jun 2017

Source: US Census Bureau

http://www.census.gov/mtis/

Businesses added cautiously to inventories to replenish stocks. Retailers’ inventories increased 0.6 percent in Jun 2017 and increased 0.6 percent in May with growth of 3.5 percent in 12 months, as shown in Table VA-2. Total business increased inventories 0.5 percent in Jun, decreasing 0.3 percent in May and increasing 2.9 percent in 12 months. Inventories sales/ratios of total business continued at a level close to 1.30 under careful management to avoid costs and risks, changing to 1.38 in Jun 2017. Inventory/sales ratios of manufacturers and retailers are higher than for merchant wholesalers. There is stability in inventory/sales ratios in individual months and relative to a year earlier with increase at the margin.

Table VA-2, US, Percentage Changes for Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers and Inventory/Sales Ratios

Inventory Change

Jun 17
Millions of Dollars NSA

Jun 17/ May 17 ∆% SA

May 17/Apr 17 ∆% SA

Jun 17/Jun 16 ∆% NSA

Total Business

1,853,311

0.5

-0.3

2.9

Manufacturers

646,243

0.2

-0.2

2.3

Retailers

613,214

0.6

0.6

3.5

Merchant
Wholesalers

593,854

0.7

0.6

2.9

Inventory/
Sales Ratio

Jun 17
Millions of Dollars NSA

Jun 2017 SA

May 2017 SA

Jun 2016 SA

Total Business

1,853,311

1.38

1.37

1.40

Manufacturers

646,243

1.38

1.37

1.40

Retailers

613,214

1.48

1.48

1.48

Merchant Wholesalers

593,854

1.29

1.29

1.32

US Census Bureau

http://www.census.gov/mtis/

Chart VA-3 of the US Census Bureau provides total business inventories of manufacturers, retailers and merchant wholesalers seasonally adjusted (SA) in millions of dollars from Jan 1992 to Jun 2017. The impact of the two recessions of 2001 and IVQ2007 to IIQ2009 is evident in the form of sharp reductions in inventories. Inventories have surpassed the peak before the global recession. Data are not adjusted for price changes.

Chart VA-3, US, Total Business Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, SA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 1992-Jun 2017

Source: US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/mtis/

Chart VA-4 provides total business inventories of manufacturers, retailers and merchant wholesalers not seasonally adjusted (NSA) from Jan 1992 to Jun 2017 in millions of dollars. The recessions of 2001 and IVQ2007 to IIQ2009 are evident in the form of sharp reductions of inventories. There is sharp upward trend of inventory accumulation after both recessions. Total business inventories are higher than in the peak before the global recession.

Chart VA-4, US, Total Business Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, NSA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 1992-Jun 2017

Source: US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/mtis/

Inventories follow business cycles. When recession hits sales inventories pile up, declining with expansion of the economy. In a fascinating classic opus, Lloyd Meltzer (1941, 129) concludes:

“The dynamic sequences (i) through (6) were intended to show what types of behavior are possible for a system containing a sales output lag. The following conclusions seem to be the most important:

(i) An economy in which business men attempt to recoup inventory losses will always undergo cyclical fluctuations when equilibrium is disturbed, provided the economy is stable.

This is the pure inventory cycle.

(2) The assumption of stability imposes severe limitations upon the possible size of the marginal propensity to consume, particularly if the coefficient of expectation is positive.

(3) The inventory accelerator is a more powerful de-stabilizer than the ordinary acceleration principle. The difference in stability conditions is due to the fact that the former allows for replacement demand whereas the usual analytical formulation of the latter does not. Thus, for inventories, replacement demand acts as a de-stabilizer. Whether it does so for all types of capital goods is a moot question, but I believe cases may occur in which it does not.

(4) Investment for inventory purposes cannot alter the equilibrium of income, which depends only upon the propensity to consume and the amount of non-induced investment.

(5) The apparent instability of a system containing both an accelerator and a coefficient of expectation makes further investigation of possible stabilizers highly desirable.”

Chart VA-5 shows the increase in the inventory/sales ratios during the recession of 2007-2009. The inventory/sales ratio fell during the expansions. The inventory/sales ratio declined to a trough in 2011, climbed and then stabilized at current levels in 2012, 2013 and 2015 with increase into 2015-2016 and then decreasing at the margin from 2016 into 2017.

Chart VA-5, Total Business Inventories/Sales Ratios 2008 to 2017

https://www.census.gov/mtis/img/mtisbrf.gif

Sales of retail and food services increased 0.6 percent in Jul 2017 after increasing 0.3 percent in Jun 2017 seasonally adjusted (SA), growing 3.9 percent in Jan-Jul 2017 relative to Jan-Jul 2016 not seasonally adjusted (NSA), as shown in Table VA-3. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales increased 0.5 percent in Jul 2017, increasing 0.1 percent in Jun 2017 SA and increasing 3.8 percent NSA in Jan-Jul 2017 relative to a year earlier. Sales of motor vehicles and parts increased 1.2 percent in Jul 2017 after increasing 0.9 percent in Jun 2017 SA and increasing 4.5 percent NSA in Jan-Jul 2017 relative to a year earlier. Gasoline station sales decreased 0.4 percent SA in Jul 2017 after decreasing 1.5 percent in Jun 2017 in oscillating prices of gasoline that are moderating, increasing 8.4 percent in Jan-Jul 2017 relative to a year earlier.

Table VA-3, US, Percentage Change in Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, ∆%

Jul/Jun ∆% SA

Jun/May ∆% SA

Jan-Jul 2017 Million Dollars NSA

Jan-Jul 2017 from Jan-Jul 2016 ∆% NSA

Retail and Food Services

0.6

0.3

3,258,419

3.9

Excluding Motor Vehicles and Parts

0.5

0.1

2,566,839

3.8

Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers

1.2

0.9

689,580

4.5

Retail

0.6

0.3

2,861,113

4.0

Building Materials

1.2

1.1

220,812

7.0

Food and Beverage

0.4

-0.7

410,923

1.8

Grocery

0.3

-0.7

368,251

1.6

Health & Personal Care Stores

0.4

0.3

190,420

0.2

Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores

-0.2

-0.7

138,291

0.2

Gasoline Stations

-0.4

-1.5

258,407

8.4

General Merchandise Stores

0.1

0.4

379,947

1.0

Food Services & Drinking Places

0.3

0.3

395,306

3.0

Source: US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/retail/

Chart VA-6 provides monthly percentage changes of sales of retail and food services. There is significant monthly volatility that prevents identification of clear trends.

Chart VA-6, US, Monthly Percentage Change of Retail and Food Services Sales, Jan 1992-Jul 2017

Source: US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/retail/

Chart VA-7 of the US Census Bureau provides total sales of retail trade and food services seasonally adjusted (SA) from Jan 1992 to Jul 2017 in millions of dollars. The impact on sales of the shallow recession of 2001 was much milder than the sharp contraction in the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. There is flattening in the final segment of the series followed by another increase/decrease. Data are not adjusted for price changes.

Chart VA-7, US, Total Sales of Retail Trade and Food Services, SA, Jan 1992-Jul 2017, Millions of Dollars

Source: US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/retail/

Chart VA-8 of the US Census Bureau provides total sales of retail trade and food services seasonally adjusted (NSA) from Jan 1992 to Jul 2017 in millions of dollars. Data are not adjusted for price changes.

Chart VA-8, US, Total Sales of Retail Trade and Food Services, NSA, Jan 1992-Jul 2017, Millions of Dollars

Source: US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/retail/

Risk aversion channels funds toward US long-term and short-term securities that finance the US balance of payments and fiscal deficits benefitting from risk flight to US dollar denominated assets. There are now temporary interruptions because of fear of rising interest rates that erode prices of US government securities because of mixed signals on monetary policy and exit from the Fed balance sheet of four trillion dollars of securities held outright. Net foreign purchases of US long-term securities (row C in Table VA-4) deteriorated from $73.7 billion in May 2017 to $15.1 billion in Jun 2017. Foreign residents’ purchases minus sales of US long-term securities (row A in Table VA-4) in May 2017 of $95.5 billion deteriorated to $35.3 billion in Jun 2017. Net US (residents) purchases of long-term foreign securities (row B in Table VA-4) improved from minus $3.6 billion in May 2017 to minus $0.8 billion in Jun 2017. Other transactions (row C2 in Table VA-4) changed from minus $18.2 billion in May 2017 to minus $19.3 billion in Jun 2017. In Jun 2017,

C = A + B + C2 = $35.3 billion - $0.8 billion - $19.3 billion = $15.1 billion

There are minor rounding errors. There is weakening demand in Table VA-4 in Jun 2017 in A1 private purchases by residents overseas of US long-term securities of $20.8 billion of which weakening in A11 Treasury securities of $5.5 billion, strengthening in A12 of $17.7 billion in agency securities, weakening of

$3.5 billion of corporate bonds and weakening of minus $5.9 billion in equities. Worldwide risk aversion causes flight into US Treasury obligations with significant oscillations. Official purchases of securities in row A2 increased $14.5 billion with increase of Treasury securities of $14.3 billion in Jun 2017. Official purchases of agency securities decreased $0.5 billion in Jun 2017. Row D shows decrease in Jun 2017 of $2.5 billion in purchases of short-term dollar denominated obligations. Foreign private holdings of US Treasury bills decreased $6.6 billion (row D11) with foreign official holdings increasing $1.2 billion while the category “other” increased $2.9 billion. Foreign private holdings of US Treasury bills decreased $6.6 billion in what could be arbitrage of duration exposures and international risks. Risk aversion of default losses in foreign securities dominates decisions to accept zero interest rates in Treasury securities with no perception of principal losses. In the case of long-term securities, investors prefer to sacrifice inflation and possible duration risk to avoid principal losses with significant oscillations in risk perceptions.

Table VA-1, Net Cross-Borders Flows of US Long-Term Securities, Billion Dollars, NSA

Jun 2016 12 Months

Jun 2017 12 Months

May 2017

Jun 2017

A Foreign Purchases less Sales of
US LT Securities

-33.9

260.5

95.5

35.3

A1 Private

292.3

453.2

119.7

20.8

A11 Treasury

98.6

89.4

82.1

5.5

A12 Agency

162.4

162.8

12.6

17.7

A13 Corporate Bonds

142.7

115.5

24.7

3.5

A14 Equities

-111.4

85.4

0.2

-5.9

A2 Official

-326.2

-192.7

-24.2

14.5

A21 Treasury

-331.7

-233.9

-35.7

14.3

A22 Agency

22.4

36.9

9.7

-0.5

A23 Corporate Bonds

-5.9

-4.6

1.3

-0.7

A24 Equities

-11.1

9.0

0.5

1.4

B Net US Purchases of LT Foreign Securities

189.1

167.4

-3.6

-0.8

B1 Foreign Bonds

268.5

246.2

10.1

14.3

B2 Foreign Equities

-79.4

-78.8

-13.7

-15.2

C1 Net Transactions

155.2

427.9

91.9

34.4

C2 Other

-223.5

-247.7

-18.2

-19.3

C Net Foreign Purchases of US LT Securities

-68.3

180.1

73.7

15.1

D Increase in Foreign Holdings of Dollar Denominated Short-term 

US Securities & Other Liab

30.4

82.3

32.0

-2.5

D1 US Treasury Bills

-13.1

10.6

24.0

-5.4

D11 Private

82.6

-47.3

21.2

-6.6

D12 Official

-95.8

57.9

2.8

1.2

D2 Other

43.5

71.7

8.1

2.9

C1 = A + B; C = C1+C2

A = A1 + A2

A1 = A11 + A12 + A13 + A14

A2 = A21 + A22 + A23 + A24

B = B1 + B2

D = D1 + D2

Sources: United States Treasury

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Pages/ticpress.aspx

http://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/jl2609.aspx

Table VA-5 provides major foreign holders of US Treasury securities. China is the largest holder with $1146.5 billion in Jun 2017, increasing 4.0 percent from $1102.2 billion in May 2017 while decreasing $94.3 billion from Jun 2016 or 7.6 percent. The United States Treasury estimates US government debt held by private investors at $11,489 billion in Mar 2017. China’s holding of US Treasury securities represents 10.0 percent of US government marketable interest-bearing debt held by private investors (http://www.fms.treas.gov/bulletin/index.html). Min Zeng, writing on “China plays a big role as US Treasury yields fall,” on Jul 16, 2014, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/articles/china-plays-a-big-role-as-u-s-treasury-yields-fall-1405545034?tesla=y&mg=reno64-wsj), finds that acceleration in purchases of US Treasury securities by China has been an important factor in the decline of Treasury yields in 2014. Japan decreased its holdings from $1147.1 billion in Jun 2016 to $1090.8 billion in Jun 2017 or 4.9 percent. The combined holdings of China and Japan in Jun 2017 add to $2237.3 billion, which is equivalent to 19.5 percent of US government marketable interest-bearing securities held by investors of $11,489 billion in Mar 2017 (http://www.fms.treas.gov/bulletin/index.html). Total foreign holdings of Treasury securities decreased from $6281.1 billion in Jun 2016 to $6171.3 billion in Jun 2017, or 1.7 percent. The US continues to finance its fiscal and balance of payments deficits with foreign savings (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007)). A point of saturation of holdings of US Treasury debt may be reached as foreign holders evaluate the threat of reduction of principal by dollar devaluation and reduction of prices by increases in yield, including possibly risk premium. Shultz et al (2012) find that the Fed financed three-quarters of the US deficit in fiscal year 2011, with foreign governments financing significant part of the remainder of the US deficit while the Fed owns one in six dollars of US national debt. Concentrations of debt in few holders are perilous because of sudden exodus in fear of devaluation and yield increases and the limit of refinancing old debt and placing new debt. In their classic work on “unpleasant monetarist arithmetic,” Sargent and Wallace (1981, 2) consider a regime of domination of monetary policy by fiscal policy (emphasis added):

“Imagine that fiscal policy dominates monetary policy. The fiscal authority independently sets its budgets, announcing all current and future deficits and surpluses and thus determining the amount of revenue that must be raised through bond sales and seignorage. Under this second coordination scheme, the monetary authority faces the constraints imposed by the demand for government bonds, for it must try to finance with seignorage any discrepancy between the revenue demanded by the fiscal authority and the amount of bonds that can be sold to the public. Suppose that the demand for government bonds implies an interest rate on bonds greater than the economy’s rate of growth. Then if the fiscal authority runs deficits, the monetary authority is unable to control either the growth rate of the monetary base or inflation forever. If the principal and interest due on these additional bonds are raised by selling still more bonds, so as to continue to hold down the growth of base money, then, because the interest rate on bonds is greater than the economy’s growth rate, the real stock of bonds will growth faster than the size of the economy. This cannot go on forever, since the demand for bonds places an upper limit on the stock of bonds relative to the size of the economy. Once that limit is reached, the principal and interest due on the bonds already sold to fight inflation must be financed, at least in part, by seignorage, requiring the creation of additional base money.”

Table VA-5, US, Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities $ Billions at End of Period

Jun 2017

May 2017

Jun 2016

Total

6171.3

6123.6

6281.1

China

1146.5

1102.2

1240.8

Japan

1090.8

1111.3

1147.1

Ireland

302.5

295.8

269.8

Brazil

269.7

269.7

251.6

Cayman Islands

254.0

266.1

270.0

Switzerland

244.5

239.5

237.9

United Kingdom

237.3

234.4

231.4

Luxembourg

211.7

207.7

225.2

Hong Kong

202.6

196.3

184.7

Taiwan

184.4

181.2

187.9

Saudi Arabia

142.8

134.0

98.2

India

130.3

127.3

117.2

Foreign Official Holdings

3995.2

3935.2

4036.8

A. Treasury Bills

330.5

329.3

272.5

B. Treasury Bonds and Notes

3664.7

3605.9

3764.3

Source: United States Treasury

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Pages/ticpress.aspx

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Pages/index.aspx

http://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt

VB Japan. The GDP of Japan grew at 1.0 percent per year on average from 1991 to 2002, with the GDP implicit deflator falling at 0.8 percent per year on average. The average growth rate of Japan’s GDP was 4 percent per year on average from the middle of the 1970s to 1992 (Ito 2004). Low growth in Japan in the 1990s is commonly labeled as “the lost decade” (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 81-115). Table VB-GDP provides yearly growth rates of Japan’s GDP from 1995 to 2016. Growth weakened from 2.7 per cent in 1995 and 3.1 percent in 1996 to contractions of 1.1 percent in 1998 and 0.3 percent in 1999. Growth rates were below 2 percent with exception of 2.8 percent in 2000 and 2.2 percent in 2004. Japan’s GDP contracted sharply by 1.1 percent in 2008 and 5.4 percent in 2009. As in most advanced economies, growth was robust at 4.2 percent in 2010 but mediocre at minus 0.1 percent in 2011 because of the tsunami and 1.5 percent in 2012. Japan’s GDP grew 2.0 percent in 2013 and nearly stagnated in 2014 at 0.3. The GDP of Japan increased 1.1 percent in 2015 and 1.0 percent in 2016. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). Japan’s real GDP in calendar year 2016 is 3.3 percent higher than in calendar year 2007. Japan’s real GDP grew 10.4 percent from the trough of 2009 to 2016 at the average yearly rate of 1.4 percent (http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html).

Table VB-GDP, Japan, Yearly Percentage Change of GDP ∆%

Calendar Year

∆%

1995

2.7

1996

3.1

1997

1.1

1998

-1.1

1999

-0.3

2000

2.8

2001

0.4

2002

0.1

2003

1.5

2004

2.2

2005

1.7

2006

1.4

2007

1.7

2008

-1.1

2009

-5.4

2010

4.2

2011

-0.1

2012

1.5

2013

2.0

2014

0.3

2015

1.1

2016

1.0

Source: Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html

Table VB-BOJF provides the forecasts of economic activity and inflation in Japan by the majority of members of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, which is part of their Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf) with changes on Jul 21, 2015 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k150121a.pdf). For fiscal 2015, the forecast is of growth of GDP between 1.5 to 2.1 percent, with the all items CPI less fresh food 0.2 to 1.2 to 3.3 percent (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf). The critical difference is forecast of the CPI excluding fresh food of 0.2 to 1.2 percent in 2015 and 1.2 to 2.2 percent in 2016 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf). Consumer price inflation in Japan excluding fresh food was minus 0.4 percent in Mar 2014 and 2.2 percent in 12 months (http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1581.htm), significantly because of the increase of the tax on value added of consumption in Apr 2014. The new monetary policy of the Bank of Japan aims to increase inflation to 2 percent. These forecasts are biannual in Apr and Oct. The Cabinet Office, Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan released on Jan 22, 2013, a “Joint Statement of the Government and the Bank of Japan on Overcoming Deflation and Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130122c.pdf) with the important change of increasing the inflation target of monetary policy from 1 percent to 2 percent:

“The Bank of Japan conducts monetary policy based on the principle that the policy shall be aimed at achieving price stability, thereby contributing to the sound development of the national economy, and is responsible for maintaining financial system stability. The Bank aims to achieve price stability on a sustainable basis, given that there are various factors that affect prices in the short run.

The Bank recognizes that the inflation rate consistent with price stability on a sustainable basis will rise as efforts by a wide range of entities toward strengthening competitiveness and growth potential of Japan's economy make progress. Based on this recognition, the Bank sets the price stability target at 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index.

Under the price stability target specified above, the Bank will pursue monetary easing and aim to achieve this target at the earliest possible time. Taking into consideration that it will take considerable time before the effects of monetary policy permeate the economy, the Bank will ascertain whether there is any significant risk to the sustainability of economic growth, including from the accumulation of financial imbalances.”

The Bank of Japan also provided explicit analysis of its view on price stability in a “Background note regarding the Bank’s thinking on price stability” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/data/rel130123a1.pdf http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130123a.htm/). The Bank of Japan also amended “Principal terms and conditions for the Asset Purchase Program” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130122a.pdf): “Asset purchases and loan provision shall be conducted up to the maximum outstanding amounts by the end of 2013. From January 2014, the Bank shall purchase financial assets and provide loans every month, the amount of which shall be determined pursuant to the relevant rules of the Bank.”

Financial markets in Japan and worldwide were shocked by new bold measures of “quantitative and qualitative monetary easing” by the Bank of Japan (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The objective of policy is to “achieve the price stability target of 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) at the earliest possible time, with a time horizon of about two years” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The main elements of the new policy are as follows:

  1. Monetary Base Control. Most central banks in the world pursue interest rates instead of monetary aggregates, injecting bank reserves to lower interest rates to desired levels. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has shifted back to monetary aggregates, conducting money market operations with the objective of increasing base money, or monetary liabilities of the government, at the annual rate of 60 to 70 trillion yen. The BOJ estimates base money outstanding at “138 trillion yen at end-2012) and plans to increase it to “200 trillion yen at end-2012 and 270 trillion yen at end 2014” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
  2. Maturity Extension of Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds. Purchases of bonds will be extended even up to bonds with maturity of 40 years with the guideline of extending the average maturity of BOJ bond purchases from three to seven years. The BOJ estimates the current average maturity of Japanese government bonds (JGB) at around seven years. The BOJ plans to purchase about 7.5 trillion yen per month (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130404d.pdf). Takashi Nakamichi, Tatsuo Ito and Phred Dvorak, wiring on “Bank of Japan mounts bid for revival,” on Apr 4, 2013, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323646604578401633067110420.html), find that the limit of maturities of three years on purchases of JGBs was designed to avoid views that the BOJ would finance uncontrolled government deficits.
  3. Seigniorage. The BOJ is pursuing coordination with the government that will take measures to establish “sustainable fiscal structure with a view to ensuring the credibility of fiscal management” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
  4. Diversification of Asset Purchases. The BOJ will engage in transactions of exchange traded funds (ETF) and real estate investment trusts (REITS) and not solely on purchases of JGBs. Purchases of ETFs will be at an annual rate of increase of one trillion yen and purchases of REITS at 30 billion yen.
  5. Bank Lending Facility and Growth Supporting Funding Facility. At the meeting on Feb 18, the Bank of Japan doubled the scale of these lending facilities to prevent their expiration in the near future (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140218a.pdf).

Table VB-BOJF provides the forecasts of economic activity and inflation in Japan by the majority of members of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, which is part of their Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1701b.pdf) with changes on Feb 1, 2017 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1604b.pdf). On Jun 19, 2015, the Bank of Japan announced a “New Framework for Monetary Policy Meetings,” which provides for quarterly release of the forecasts of the economy and prices beginning in Jan 2016 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/rel150619a.pdf). For fiscal 2015, the forecast is of growth of GDP between 0.7 to 0.7 percent, with the all items CPI less fresh food of 0.0 percent (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1604b.pdf). The critical difference is forecast of the CPI excluding fresh food of 0.0 to 0.2 percent in 2016 and 1.8 to 3.0 percent in 2017 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1604b.pdf). Consumer price inflation in Japan excluding fresh food was 0.1 percent in Mar 2016 and minus 0.3 percent in 12 months (http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1581.htm). The CPI increased significantly because of the increase of the tax on value added of consumption in Apr 2014. The new monetary policy of the Bank of Japan aims to increase inflation to 2 percent. These forecasts are biannual in Apr and Oct. The Cabinet Office, Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan released on Jan 22, 2013, a “Joint Statement of the Government and the Bank of Japan on Overcoming Deflation and Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130122c.pdf) with the important change of increasing the inflation target of monetary policy from 1 percent to 2 percent:

“The Bank of Japan conducts monetary policy based on the principle that the policy shall be aimed at achieving price stability, thereby contributing to the sound development of the national economy, and is responsible for maintaining financial system stability. The Bank aims to achieve price stability on a sustainable basis, given that there are various factors that affect prices in the short run.

The Bank recognizes that the inflation rate consistent with price stability on a sustainable basis will rise as efforts by a wide range of entities toward strengthening competitiveness and growth potential of Japan's economy make progress. Based on this recognition, the Bank sets the price stability target at 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index.

Under the price stability target specified above, the Bank will pursue monetary easing and aim to achieve this target at the earliest possible time. Taking into consideration that it will take considerable time before the effects of monetary policy permeate the economy, the Bank will ascertain whether there is any significant risk to the sustainability of economic growth, including from the accumulation of financial imbalances.”

The Bank of Japan also provided explicit analysis of its view on price stability in a “Background note regarding the Bank’s thinking on price stability” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/data/rel130123a1.pdf http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130123a.htm/). The Bank of Japan also amended “Principal terms and conditions for the Asset Purchase Program” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130122a.pdf): “Asset purchases and loan provision shall be conducted up to the maximum outstanding amounts by the end of 2013. From January 2014, the Bank shall purchase financial assets and provide loans every month, the amount of which shall be determined pursuant to the relevant rules of the Bank.”

Financial markets in Japan and worldwide were shocked by new bold measures of “quantitative and qualitative monetary easing” by the Bank of Japan (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The objective of policy is to “achieve the price stability target of 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) at the earliest possible time, with a time horizon of about two years” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The main elements of the new policy are as follows:

  1. Monetary Base Control. Most central banks in the world pursue interest rates instead of monetary aggregates, injecting bank reserves to lower interest rates to desired levels. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has shifted back to monetary aggregates, conducting money market operations with the objective of increasing base money, or monetary liabilities of the government, at the annual rate of 60 to 70 trillion yen. The BOJ estimates base money outstanding at “138 trillion yen at end-2012) and plans to increase it to “200 trillion yen at end-2012 and 270 trillion yen at end 2014” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
  2. Maturity Extension of Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds. Purchases of bonds will be extended even up to bonds with maturity of 40 years with the guideline of extending the average maturity of BOJ bond purchases from three to seven years. The BOJ estimates the current average maturity of Japanese government bonds (JGB) at around seven years. The BOJ plans to purchase about 7.5 trillion yen per month (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130404d.pdf). Takashi Nakamichi, Tatsuo Ito and Phred Dvorak, wiring on “Bank of Japan mounts bid for revival,” on Apr 4, 2013, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323646604578401633067110420.html), find that the limit of maturities of three years on purchases of JGBs was designed to avoid views that the BOJ would finance uncontrolled government deficits.
  3. Seigniorage. The BOJ is pursuing coordination with the government that will take measures to establish “sustainable fiscal structure with a view to ensuring the credibility of fiscal management” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
  4. Diversification of Asset Purchases. The BOJ will engage in transactions of exchange traded funds (ETF) and real estate investment trusts (REITS) and not solely on purchases of JGBs. Purchases of ETFs will be at an annual rate of increase of one trillion yen and purchases of REITS at 30 billion yen.
  5. Bank Lending Facility and Growth Supporting Funding Facility. At the meeting on Feb 18, the Bank of Japan doubled the scale of these lending facilities to prevent their expiration in the near future (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140218a.pdf).
  6. Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Negative Nominal Interest Rate. On January 29, 2016, the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan introduced a new policy to attain the “price stability target of 2 percent at the earliest possible time” (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2016/k160129a.pdf). The new framework consists of three dimensions: quantity, quality and interest rate. The interest rate dimension consists of rates paid to current accounts that financial institutions hold at the Bank of Japan of three tiers zero, positive and minus 0.1 percent. The quantitative dimension consists of increasing the monetary base at the annual rate of 80 trillion yen. The qualitative dimension consists of purchases by the Bank of Japan of Japanese government bonds (JGBs), exchange traded funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITS).
  7. Quantitative and Qualitative Easing with Yield Curve Control. The Bank of Japan introduced a new approach, QQE with Yield Curve Control (“Quantitative and Qualitative Easing with Yield Curve Control”) at its policy meeting on Sep 21, 2016 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2016/k160921a.pdf). The policy consists of two measures. First “yield curve control” consists of controlling the long-term and short-term interest rates. The bank will fix the interest rates of policy balances held by financial institutions at the BOJ at minus 0.1 percent and will purchase Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) in the amount required to maintain the yield of the 10-year JGB at around zero percent. Second, “the inflation-overshooting commitment” consists of increasing base money to maintain the CPI price stability target above 2 percent.

Table VB-BOJF, Bank of Japan, Forecasts of the Majority of Members of the Policy Board, % Year on Year

Fiscal Year
Date of Forecast

Real GDP

CPI All Items Less Fresh Food

Excluding Effects of Consumption Tax Hikes

2013

Apr 2014

+2.2 to +2.3
[+2.2]

+0.8

Jan 2014

+2.5 to +2.9

[+2.7]

+0.7 to +0.9

[+0.7]

Oct 2013

+2.6 to +3.0

[+2.7]

+0.6 to +1.0

[+0.7]

Jul 2013

+2.5 to +3.0

[+2.8]

+0.5 to +0.8

[+0.6]

2014

Apr 2015

-1.0 to -0.8

[-0.9]

+2.8

+0.8

Jan 2015

-0.6 to -0.4

[-0.5]

+2.9 to +3.2

[+2.9]

+0.9 to +1.2

[+0.9]

Oct 2014

+0.2 to +0.7

[+0.5]

+3.1 to +3.4

[+3.2]

+1.1 to +1.4

[+1.2]

Jul 2014

+0.6 to +1.3

[+1.0]

+3.2 to +3.5

[+3.3]

+1.2 to +1.5

[+1.3]

Apr 2014

+0.8 to +1.3
[+1.1]

+3.0 to +3.5
[+3.3]

+1.0 to +1.5
[+1.3]

Jan 2014

+0.9 to 1.5

[+1.4]

+2.9 to +3.6

[+3.3]

+0.9 to +1.6

[+1.3]

Oct 2013

+0.9 to +1.5

[+1.5]

+2.8 to +3.6

[+3.3]

+0.8 to +1.6

[+1.3]

Jul 2013

+0.8 to +1.5

[+1.3]

+2.7 to +3.6

[+3.3]

+0.7 to +1.6

[+1.3]

2015

Feb 2016

+0.7 to +0.7

[+0.7]

0.0

Jan 2016

+1.0 to +1.3

[+1.1]

0.0 to 0.2

[+0.1]

Oct 2015

+0.8 to +1.4

[+1.2]

0.0 to +0.4

[+0.1

Jul 2015

+1.5 to +1.9

[+1.7]

+0.3 to +1.0

[+0.7]

Apr 2015

+1.5 to +2.1

[+2.0]

+0.2 to 1.2

[+0.8]

+0.2 to 1.2

[+0.8]

Jan 2015

+1.8 to +2.3

[+2.1]

+0.4 to +1.3

[+1.0]

+0.4 to +1.3

[+1.0]

Oct 2014

+1.2 to +1.7

[+1.5]

+1.8 to 2.6

[+2.4]

+1.1 to +1.9

[+1.7]

Jul 2014

+1.2 to +1.6

[+1.5]

+1.9 to +2.8

[+2.6]

+1.2 to +2.1

[+1.9]

Apr 2014

+1.2 to +1.5
[+1.5]

+1.9 to +2.8
[+2.6]

+1.2 to +2.1
[+1.9]

Jan 2014

+1.2 to +1.8

[+1.5]

+1.7 to +2.9

[+2.6]

+1.0 to +2.2

[+1.9]

Oct 2013

+1.3 to +1.8

[+1.5]

+1.6 to +2.9

[+2.6]

+0.9 to +2.2

[+1.9]

Jul 2013

+1.3 to +1.9 [+1.5]

+1.6 to +2.9 [+2.6]

+0.9 to +2.2 [+1.9]

2016

Apr 2017

+1.4 to +1.4

[+1.4]

-0.3

Feb 2017

+1.2 to +1.5

[+1.4]

-0.2 to -0.1

[-0.2]

Jul 2016

+0.8 to +1.0

[+1.0]

0.0 to +0.3

[0.5]

0.0 to +0.3

[0.5]

Apr 2016

+0.8 to +1.4

[+1.2]

0.0 to +0.8

[+0.5]

0.0 to +0.8

[+0.5]

Jan 2016

+1.0 to +1.7

[+1.5]

0.2 to +1.2

[+0.8]

Oct 2015

+1.2 to +1.6

[+1.4]

+0.8 to +1.5

[+1.4]

Jul 2015

+1.5 to 1.7

[+1.5]

+1.2 to +2.1

[+1.9]

Apr 2015

+1.4 to +1.8

[+1.5]

+1.2 to +2.2

[+2.0]

+1.2 to +2.2

[+2.0]

Jan 2015

+1.5 to +1.7

[+1.6]

+1.5 to +2.3

[+2.2]

+1.5 to +2.3

[+2.2]

Oct 2014

+1.0 to +1.4

[+1.2]

+1.9 to 3.0

[+2.8]

+1.2 to 2.3

[+2.1]

Jul 2014

+1.0 to +1.5

[+1.3]

+2.0 to +3.0

[+2.8]

+1.3 to +2.3

[+2.1]

Apr 2014

+1.0 to +1.5
[+1.3]

+2.0 to +3.0
[+2.8]

+1.3 to +2.3
[+2.1]

2017

Apr 2017

+1.4 to +1.6

[+1.6]

+0.6 to +1.6

[+1.4]

Feb 2017

+1.3 to +1.6

[+1.5]

+0.8 to +1.6

[+1.5]

Jul 2016

1.0 to +1.5
[+1.3]

+0.8 to +1.8
[+1.7]

+0.8 to +1.8
[+1.7]

Apr 2016

0.0 to + +0.3

[+0.1]

1.8 to +3.0

[+2.7]

0.8 to +2.0

[+1.7

Jan 2016

+0.1 to + 0.5

[+0.3]

+2.0 to +3.1

[+2.8]

+ 1.0 to +2.1

[+1.8]

Oct 2015

+0.1 to +0.5

[+0.3]

+2.5 to +3.4

[+3.1]

+1.2 to 2.1

[+1.8]

Jul 2015

+0.1 to +0.5

[+0.2]

+2.7 to +3.4

[+3.1]

+1.4 to +2.1

[+1.8]

Apr 2015

+0.1 to +0.5

[+0.2]

+2.7 to +3.4

[+3.2]

+1.4 to +2.1

[+1.9]

2018

Apr 2017

+1.1 to +1.3

[+1.3]

+0.8 to +1.9

[+1.7]

Feb 2017

+1.0 to +1.2

[+1.1]

+0.9 to +1.9

[+1.7]

Jul 2016

+0.8 to +1.0
[+0.9]

+1.0 to +2.0
[+1.9]

+1.0 to +2.0
[+1.9]

Apr 2016

+0.6 to +1.2

[+1.0]

+1.0 to +2.1

[+1.9]

+1.0 to +2.1

[+1.9]

2019

Apr 2017

+0.6 to +0.7

[+0.7]

+1.4 to +2.5

[+2.4]

+0.9 to +2.0

[+1.9]

Figures in brackets are the median of forecasts of Policy Board members

Source: Policy Board, Bank of Japan

Figures in brackets are the median of forecasts of Policy Board members

Source: Policy Board, Bank of Japan

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k150121a.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140715a.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1510b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1601b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1604b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1607b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1701b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1704b.pdf

The Nikkei Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI Index™ with the Flash Japan

Manufacturing PMI™ decreased from 52.4 in Jun to 52.2 in Jul and the Flash Japan

Manufacturing Output Index™ decreased from 52.2 in Jun to 51.4 in Jul

(https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/a4d2091a953a44cba70529ca0c3d74bc). New export orders did not change. Paul Smith, Senior Economist at IHS

Markit, finds slowing growth conditions

(https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/a4d2091a953a44cba70529ca0c3d74bc).The Nikkei Composite Output PMI Index decreased from 52.9 in Jun to 51.8 in Jul, indicating slowing business activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/edba0d02c5964841adc0b94524957b9f). The Nikkei Business Activity Index of Services decreased to 52.0 in Jul from 53.3 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/edba0d02c5964841adc0b94524957b9f). Paul Smith, Director at IHS Markit, finds continuing business activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/edba0d02c5964841adc0b94524957b9f). The Nikkei Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™), seasonally adjusted, decreased from 52.4 in Jun to 52.1 in Jul (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/1b07c296d0874770b19d162f432e8342). New orders increased while new foreign orders expanded. Paul Smith, Senior Economist at IHS Markit, finds consistent conditions in manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/1b07c296d0874770b19d162f432e8342). Table JPY provides the country data table for Japan.

Table JPY, Japan, Economic Indicators

Historical GDP and CPI

1981-2010 Real GDP Growth and CPI Inflation 1981-2010
Blog 8/9/11 Table 26

Corporate Goods Prices

Jul ∆% 0.3
12 months ∆% 2.6
Blog 8/13/17

Consumer Price Index

Jun NSA ∆% -0.1; Jun 12 months NSA ∆% 0.4
Blog 7/30/17

Real GDP Growth

IIQ2017 ∆%: 1.0 on IQ2017; IIQ2017 SAAR 4.0;
∆% from quarter a year earlier: 2.0 %
Blog 6/16/13 8/18/13 9/15/13 11/17/13 12/15/13 2/23/14 3/16/14 5/18/14 6/15/14 8/17/14 9/14/14 11/23/14 12/14/14 2/22/15 3/15/15 5/24/15 6/14/15 8/23/15 9/13/15 11/22/15 12/13/15 2/21/16 3/13/16 5/22/16 6/12/16 8/21/16 9/11/16 11/20/16 12/11/16 2/19/17 3/12/17 5/21/17 6/11/17 8/20/17

Employment Report

Jun Unemployed 1.92 million

Change in unemployed since last year: -180 thousand
Unemployment rate: 2.8%
Blog 7/30/17

All Industry Indices

May month SA ∆% -0.9
12-month NSA ∆% 3.0

Earlier Data:

Blog 4/26/15

Industrial Production

Jun SA month ∆%: 2.2
Jun 12-month NSA ∆% 5.5

Earlier Data:
Blog 3/29/15

Machine Orders

Total Jun ∆% 2.1

Private ∆%: 4.4 Jun ∆% Excluding Volatile Orders minus 1.9

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/19/15

Tertiary Index

Jun month SA ∆% 0.0
Jun 12 months NSA ∆% 1.1

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/26/15

Wholesale and Retail Sales

Apr 12 months:
Total ∆%: 1.5
Wholesale ∆%: 0.8
Retail ∆%: 3.2

Earlier Data:
Blog 3/29/15

Family Income and Expenditure Survey

Jun 12-month ∆% total nominal consumption 2.8, real 2.3

Earlier Data:

Blog 3/29/15

Trade Balance

Exports Jul 12 months ∆%: 13.4 Imports Jul 12 months ∆% 16.3

Earlier Data:

Blog 4/26/15

Links to blog comments in Table JPY: 8/13/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million_40.html

7/30/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/data-dependent-monetary-policy-with_30.html

7/16/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

7/2/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/dollar-devaluation-and-rising-yields.html

6/25/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/united-states-commercial-banks-united.html

6/18/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/fomc-interest-rate-increase-planned.html

6/4/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

6/11/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/flattening-us-treasury-yield-curve.html

5/28/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

5/21/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/dollar-devaluation-world-inflation.html

3/12/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/increasing-interest-rates-twenty-four.html

3/5/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

12/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/rising-values-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/20/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/interest-rate-increase-could-well.html

9/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/interest-rate-uncertainty-and-valuation.html

8/21/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/interest-rate-policy-uncertainty-and.html

6/12/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/considerable-uncertainty-about-economic.html

5/22/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/most-fomc-participants-judged-that-if.html

3/13/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/monetary-policy-and-fluctuations-of_13.html

12/13/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/liftoff-of-interest-rates-with-volatile_17.html

11/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-liftoff-followed-by.html

9/13/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what_13.html

08/23/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/global-decline-of-values-of-financial.html

6/14/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/volatility-of-financial-asset.html

5/24/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/interest-rate-policy-and-dollar.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

3/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

2/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html

12/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/global-financial-and-economic-risk.html

11/23/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.htm

9/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitics-monetary-policy-and.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

6/15/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financialgeopolitical-risks-recovery.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html

2/23/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html

12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

Japan’s economy grew 1.1 percent in IQ2014, seasonally adjusted, partly because of anticipation of purchases to avoid the increase in the tax on value added of consumption in Apr 2014, contracting 2.0 percent in IIQ2014, as shown in Table VB-1, incorporating the latest estimates and revisions. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 and grew 0.8 percent in IVQ2014. The GDP of Japan increased 1.2 percent in IQ2015 and decreased 0.1 percent in IIQ2014. The GDP of Japan grew 0.2 percent in IIIQ2015. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.2 percent in IVQ2015. The GDP of Japan increased 0.6 percent in IQ2016 and increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2016. Japan’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2016. The GDP of Japan increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2016, increasing 0.4 percent in IQ2017. Japan’s GDP increased 1.0 percent in IIQ2017. The GDP of Japan decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2013 after growing 0.7 percent in IIIQ2013, 0.9 percent in IIQ2013 and 1.2 percent in IQ2013. Japan’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IIIQ2012. GDP growth in IQ2012 was revised to 1.1 percent; IIQ2012 GDP growth was revised to -0.5 percent; and IIIQ2012 growth was revised to -0.4 percent. The economy of Japan had already weakened in IVQ2010 when GDP fell revised 0.7 percent. As in other advanced economies, Japan’s recovery from the global recession has not been robust. GDP fell 1.4 percent in IQ2011 and fell again 0.6 percent in IIQ2011 because of the disruption of the tragic Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Recovery was robust in the first two quarters of 2010 but GDP grew at 1.9 percent in IIIQ2010 and fell 0.7 percent in IVQ2010. The deepest quarterly contractions in the global recession were 2.2 percent in IVQ2008 and 4.8 percent in IQ2009. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). Using seasonally adjusted and price adjusted data (http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html), Japan’s GDP fell 8.7 percent from the pre-downturn peak of ¥507,792.3 million in IQ2008 to the lowest reading of ¥463,801.6 million in IQ2009. Japan’s GDP increased 4.7 percent from the pre-downturn peak of ¥507,792.30 million in IQ2008 to ¥531,530.6 million in IIQ2017. GDP in Japan grew 14.6 percent from IIQ2009 to IIQ2017 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.8 percent, using the latest revision (http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html). The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) of the Cabinet Office of Japan revised the national accounts of Japan following the international standard of the national accounts. ESRI also changed the benchmark reference year from 2005 to 2011 (http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/data/kakuhou/files/2015/pdf/20160930_2008sna.pdf http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/data/sokuhou/files/2016/qe163_2/pdf/note_e.pdf).

Table VB-1, Japan, Real GDP ∆% Changes from the Previous Quarter Seasonally Adjusted ∆%

IQ

IIQ

IIIQ

IVQ

2017

0.4

1.0

2016

0.6

0.3

0.3

0.4

2015

1.2

-0.1

0.2

-0.2

2014

1.1

-2.0

-0.1

0.8

2013

1.2

0.9

0.7

-0.1

2012

1.1

-0.5

-0.4

0.1

2011

-1.4

-0.6

2.3

-0.1

2010

1.1

1.0

1.9

-0.7

2009

-4.8

2.0

-0.1

1.5

2008

0.4

-0.7

-1.2

-2.2

2007

0.9

-0.1

-0.3

0.5

2006

0.1

0.4

-0.2

1.1

2005

0.5

0.9

1.0

0.2

2004

0.9

-0.1

0.5

-0.4

2003

-0.3

0.9

0.4

1.1

2002

0.1

0.8

0.4

0.4

2001

0.7

-0.6

-1.1

-0.2

2000

1.9

0.2

0.0

1.0

1999

-1.5

0.5

0.4

0.1

1998

-1.4

-0.4

0.2

1.1

1997

0.5

-1.1

0.6

0.2

Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html

Table VB-2 provides contributions to real GDP at seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR). The GDP of Japan grew at 4.0 percent in IIQ2017 with contributions of 2.0 percent by personal consumption (PC), 2.6 percent by gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), 0.2 percent by private inventory accumulation (PINV) and 0.3 percent by government expenditures (GOV). Net trade (Trade) deducted 1.1 percentage points. The GDP of Japan grew at 1.5 percent in IQ2017 with contributions of 0.8 percent of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), 0.5 percent of net exports (Trade) and 0.0 percent of government consumption (GOVC). Inventory investment (PINV) subtracted 0.6 percent and personal consumption (PC) contributed 0.9 percent. The GDP of Japan grew at 1.7 percent in IVQ2016 with contributions of 0.9 percent of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), 1.3 percent of net exports (Trade) and 0.0 percent of government consumption (GOVC). Inventory divestment (PINV) deducted 0.8 percent and personal consumption (PC) contributed 0.3 percent. Japan’s GDP grew at 1.3 percent in IIIQ2016 with contributions of 0.9 percent of personal consumption expenditures (PC), 1.6 percent of net trade (Trade) and 0.2 percent of government consumption expenditures (GOVC). Inventory divestment (PINV) deducted 1.6 percent and gross capital formation (GFCF) contribute 0.2 percent. The GDP of Japan grew at 1.4 percent in IIQ2016 with contribution of 0.3 percent by personal consumption expenditures. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) contributed 0.6 percent and government consumption expenditures (GOVC) deducted 1.0 percent. Net trade (Trade) added 0.2 percent and change of private inventories (PINV) added 1.3 percent. Japan’s GDP grew at 2.3 percent in IQ2016 with contributions of 0.7 percent by personal consumption, 1.4 percent by trade and 1.1 percent by government. Gross fixed capital formation added 0.3 percent. The GDP of Japan grew at minus 0.8 percent in IVQ2015 with deduction of 1.3 percent by personal consumption (PC) expenditures and contribution of 0.1 percent by private inventories (PINV). Net trade contributed 0.0 percent and gross fixed capital formation deducted 0.2 percent. GDP grew at 0.9 percent in IIIQ2015 with highest contributions of 1.4 percent by personal consumption expenditures and 0.3 percentage points by government consumption. Net trade ducted 0.3 percent. Gross Fixed Capital Formation contributed 0.4 percentage points and inventory divestment deducted 0.9 percentage points. GDP decreased at 0.5 percent in IIQ2015 with highest deductions of 0.9 percent by personal consumption expenditures and 0.5 percent of net exports. Goss fixed capital formation deducted 0.9 percentage points; government consumption expenditures contributed 0.1 percentage points; and inventory investment added 1.9 percentage points. GDP grew at 4.8 percent in IQ2015 with contributions of 1.2 percentage points by personal consumption expenditures, 1.0 percent by gross fixed capital formation and increase in inventory investment at 1.8 percent. Gross fixed capital formation increased at 1.7 percent while trade contributed 0.0 percentage points and government consumption expenditures added 0.8 percentage points. GDP expanded at 3.0 percent in IVQ2014 with contribution of 1.4 percent by personal consumption expenditures, 1.5 percent by net trade and 0.1 percent by government consumption expenditures. Gross fixed capital formation added 0.7 percent and private inventory divestment deducted 0.6 percent. Trade added 1.5 percentage points. Japan contracted at 0.4 percent in IIIQ2014 with contribution of 0.1 percentage points of GFCF and deduction of 1.7 percentage points of inventory divestment. Traded deducted 0.2 percentage points and government added 0.4 percent. Japan’s GDP contracted at 7.6 percent in IIQ2014 with deductions of 11.8 percent by personal consumption and 3.5 percent by gross fixed capital formation. Trade added 4.0 percentage points and government expenditures deducted 0.5 percent. Inventory investment added 4.1 percent. The GDP of Japan expanded at 4.5 percent in IQ2014 with contributions of 5.7 percent by personal consumption and 1.7 percent of gross fixed capital formation. There were deductions of 0.8 percent by trade and 2.3 percent by inventory divestment. Government expenditures contributed 0.2 percent. The GDP of Japan contracted at 0.4 percent annual equivalent in IVQ2013 with deduction of personal consumption expenditures of 0.6 percent and growth of GFCF at 1.6 percent. Trade deducted 2.2 percentage points. Japan grew at 2.7 percent in IIIQ2013 with contribution of 0.4 percentage points by personal consumption and 2.6 percentage points by GFCF. Trade deducted 1.3 percentage points. Japan grew at 3.7 percent SAAR in IIQ2013 driven by contribution of 2.2 percent of personal consumption, deduction of 0.1 percent of net trade and contribution of gross fixed capital formation at 2.8 percent. In IQ2013, Japan’s GDP increased at the SAAR of 5.1 percent in large part because of 3.5 percent in personal consumption and 1.4 percent in trade. The SAAR of GDP in IVQ2012 was 0.5 percent: 0.4 percentage points from growth of personal consumption expenditures less 0.3 percentage points of net trade (exports less imports) less 0.1 percentage points of private inventory investment (PINV) plus 0.5 percentage points of government consumption and 0.1 percentage points of gross fixed capital formation. The SAAR of GDP in IIIQ2011 was revised to a high 9.6 percent. Net trade deducted from GDP growth in three quarters of 2011 and provided the growth impulse of 3.6 percentage points in IIIQ2011. Growth in 2011 and IQ2012 was driven by personal consumption expenditures that deducted 0.4 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2012 but contributed 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2012.

Table VB-2, Japan, Contributions to Changes in Real GDP, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (SAAR), %

GDP

PC

GFCF

Trade

PINV

GOVC

2017

I

1.5

0.9

0.8

0.5

-0.6

0.0

II

4.0

2.0

2.6

-1.1

0.2

0.3

2016

I

2.3

0.7

0.3

1.4

-1.3

1.1

II

1.4

0.3

0.6

0.2

1.3

-1.0

III

1.3

0.9

0.2

1.6

-1.6

0.2

IV

1.7

0.3

0.9

1.3

-0.8

0.0

2015

I

4.8

1.2

1.0

0.0

1.8

0.8

II

-0.5

-0.9

-0.9

-0.5

1.9

0.1

III

0.9

1.4

0.4

-0.3

-0.9

0.3

IV

-0.8

-1.3

-0.2

0.0

0.1

0.6

2014

I

4.5

5.7

1.7

-0.8

-2.3

0.2

II

-7.6

-11.8

-3.5

4.0

4.1

-0.5

III

-0.4

0.8

0.1

-0.2

-1.7

0.4

IV

3.0

1.4

0.7

1.5

-0.6

0.1

2013

I

5.1

3.5

0.8

1.4

-0.5

0.0

II

3.7

2.2

2.8

-0.1

-2.2

0.9

III

2.7

0.4

2.6

-1.3

1.0

0.1

IV

-0.4

-0.6

1.6

-2.2

0.6

0.1

2012

I

4.6

0.9

1.0

0.7

1.0

0.9

II

-2.0

1.5

0.5

-2.0

-1.7

-0.3

III

-1.6

-0.4

-0.6

-1.9

1.1

0.3

IV

0.5

0.4

0.1

-0.3

-0.1

0.5

2011

I

-5.6

-4.1

0.6

-1.4

-1.2

0.4

II

-2.3

2.4

-0.5

-4.3

-0.2

0.3

III

9.6

3.1

1.4

3.6

1.1

0.3

IV

-0.4

1.1

1.8

-2.7

-0.8

0.2

2010

I

4.5

1.4

0.6

1.9

1.3

-0.8

II

3.9

0.7

-0.1

0.3

1.9

1.2

III

7.7

3.4

0.8

0.6

2.6

0.3

IV

-2.6

-2.6

-0.4

-0.1

0.0

0.3

2009

I

-17.9

-1.4

-3.9

-4.8

-8.2

0.2

II

8.1

2.4

-2.0

7.5

-1.1

1.1

III

-0.3

1.4

-2.9

2.1

-1.8

0.9

IV

6.1

1.9

-0.5

2.9

1.3

0.4

2008

I

1.7

1.4

0.6

0.8

-1.3

0.1

II

-2.8

-3.3

-1.4

0.4

2.4

-0.9

III

-4.9

-0.8

-0.5

-0.1

-3.5

0.0

IV

-8.3

-2.1

-2.6

-10.3

6.2

0.3

2007

I

3.7

1.0

-0.1

1.0

1.3

0.4

II

-0.3

0.8

-1.6

0.7

-0.9

0.5

III

-1.3

-1.3

-2.4

2.2

0.5

-0.1

IV

1.8

0.3

-1.1

1.3

0.9

0.5

Note: PC: Private Consumption; GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation; PINV: Private Inventory; Trade: Net Exports; GOVC: Government Consumption

Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/

Long-term economic growth in Japan significantly improved by increasing competitiveness in world markets. Net trade of exports and imports is an important component of the GDP accounts of Japan. Table VB-3 provides quarterly data for net trade, exports and imports of Japan. Net trade had strong positive contributions to GDP growth in Japan in all quarters from IQ2007 to IIQ2009 with exception of IVQ2008, IIIQ2008 and IQ2009. The US recession is dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) as beginning in IVQ2007 (Dec) and ending in IIQ2009 (Jun) (http://www.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html). Net trade contributions helped to cushion the economy of Japan from the global recession. Net trade deducted from GDP growth in seven of the nine quarters from IVQ2010 to IQ2012. The only strong contribution of net trade was 3.6 percent in IIIQ2011. Net trade added 1.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2013 but subtracted 0.1 percentage points in IIQ2013, deducting 1.3 percentage points in IIIQ2013 and 2.2 percentage points in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 0.8 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2014. Net trade added 4.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 1.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2014. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2015 and deducted 0.5-percentage points in IIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2015. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2015 and added 1.4 percentage points in IQ2016. Net trade contributed 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade added 1.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2016 and contributed 1.3 percentage points in IVQ2016.  Net trade contributed 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017 and deducted 1.1 percentage points in IIQ2017. Private consumption assumed the role of driver of Japan’s economic growth but should moderate as in most mature economies.

Table VB-3, Japan, Contributions to Changes in Real GDP, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (SAAR), %

Net Trade

Exports

Imports

2017

I

0.5

1.3

-0.8

II

-1.1

-0.3

-0.8

2016

I

1.4

0.0

1.5

II

0.2

-0.6

0.8

III

1.6

1.5

0.2

IV

1.3

2.2

-0.9

2015

I

0.0

0.8

-0.8

II

-0.5

-2.6

2.1

III

-0.3

1.7

-1.9

IV

0.0

-0.3

0.2

2014

I

-0.8

3.8

-4.6

II

4.0

0.8

3.2

III

-0.2

1.0

-1.2

IV

1.5

2.4

-0.9

2013

I

1.4

1.7

-0.3

II

-0.1

1.9

-2.1

III

-1.3

0.0

-1.3

IV

-2.2

-0.1

-2.0

2012

I

0.7

1.8

-1.1

II

-2.0

-0.6

-1.4

III

-1.9

-2.1

0.2

IV

-0.3

-2.0

1.6

2011

I

-1.4

-0.6

-0.8

II

-4.3

-4.6

0.4

III

3.6

5.4

-1.9

IV

-2.7

-1.7

-1.0

2010

I

1.9

3.3

-1.4

II

0.3

2.8

-2.5

III

0.6

1.7

-1.0

IV

-0.1

0.2

-0.3

2009

I

-4.8

-16.2

11.4

II

7.5

4.6

2.8

III

2.1

5.3

-3.2

IV

2.9

4.2

-1.3

2008

I

0.8

1.8

-1.0

II

0.4

-1.4

1.9

III

-0.1

0.1

-0.2

IV

-10.3

-9.3

-1.1

2007

I

1.0

1.6

-0.5

II

0.7

1.6

-0.8

III

2.2

1.7

0.5

IV

1.3

2.0

-0.7

Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html

Japan’s percentage growth of GDP not seasonally adjusted in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier is in in Table VB-4. Contraction of GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier extended over seven quarters from IIQ2008 through IVQ2009. Contraction was sharpest in IQ2009 with output declining 8.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Yearly quarterly rates of growth of Japan were relatively high for a mature economy through the decade except for the contractions from IVQ2001 to IIQ2002 and after 2007. The Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011 caused slower GDP in IQ2011 at 0.7 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier and decline of 0.7 percent in IIQ2011. GDP fell 0.4 percent in IIIQ2011 relative to a year earlier and changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2011 relative to a year earlier. Growth resumed with 2.9 percent in IQ2012 relative to a year earlier. Growth of 2.9 percent in IIQ2012 is largely caused by the low level in IIQ2011 resulting from the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2012 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2012 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent in IIQ2013. Growth of 2.8 percent in IIIQ2013 relative to a year earlier is partly due to the decline of 0.5 percent in GDP in IIIQ2012.  GDP increased 2.7 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 3.1 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.3 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP contracted 1.1 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.3 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier in IQ2015 and increased 1.7 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 2.0 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.9 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.9 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 1.1 percent in IIIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, Japan’s GDP increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 1.5 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2017, Japan’s GDP increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan faces the challenge of recovery from the devastation of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011 in an environment of declining world trade and bouts of risk aversion that cause appreciation of the Japanese yen, eroding the country’s competitiveness in world markets. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977).  Using price adjusted but not seasonally adjusted data (http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html), Japan’s GDP contracted 11.7 percent from the high in IVQ2007 to the low in IIQ2009. GDP contracted 0.6 percent from IVQ2007 to IIQ2017. Japan’s GDP grew 12.5 percent from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2017 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.5 percent.

Table VB-4, Japan, Real GDP ∆% Changes from Same Quarter Year Earlier, NSA ∆%

IQ

IIQ

IIIQ

IVQ

2017

1.5

2.0

2016

0.5

0.9

1.1

1.7

2015

-0.1

1.7

2.0

0.9

2014

3.1

-0.3

-1.1

-0.3

2013

0.7

1.8

2.8

2.7

2012

2.9

2.9

0.0

0.2

2011

0.7

-0.7

-0.4

0.0

2010

4.6

3.6

5.7

3.0

2009

-8.8

-6.2

-5.1

-1.4

2008

0.6

-0.2

-1.0

-3.6

2007

2.5

1.6

1.5

1.0

2006

2.5

1.5

0.3

1.4

2005

0.8

1.4

1.9

2.4

2004

3.6

2.3

2.3

0.7

2003

1.4

1.6

1.4

1.8

2002

-1.8

-0.2

1.1

1.4

2001

2.3

1.2

-0.2

-1.5

2000

3.4

2.8

2.4

2.6

1999

-0.4

0.1

0.3

-1.0

1998

-1.7

-0.7

-1.4

-0.7

1997

2.6

0.7

1.1

-0.1

Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html

VC China. China estimates an index of nonmanufacturing purchasing managers based on a sample of 1200 nonmanufacturing enterprises across the country (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Table CIPMNM provides this index and components. The total index increased from 55.7 in Jan 2011 to 58.0 in Mar 2012, decreasing to 53.9 in Aug 2013. The index decreased from 56.0 in Nov 2013 to 54.6 in Dec 2013, easing to 53.4 in Jan 2014. The index moved to 54.5 in May 2017. The index of new orders increased from 52.2 in Jan 2012 to 54.3 in Dec 2012 but fell to 50.1 in May 2013, barely above the neutral frontier of 50.0. The index of new orders stabilized at 51.0 in Nov-Dec 2013, easing to 50.9 in Jan 2014. The index of new orders moved to 50.9 in May 2017.

Table CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted

Total Index

New Orders

Interm.
Input Prices

Subs Prices

Exp

Jul 2017

54.5

51.1

53.1

50.9

61.1

Jun

54.9

51.4

51.2

49.3

61.1

May

54.5

50.9

51.1

48.8

60.2

Apr

54.0

50.5

51.7

50.2

59.7

Mar

55.1

51.9

52.3

49.7

61.3

Feb

54.2

51.2

53.7

51.4

62.4

Jan

54.6

51.3

55.1

51.0

58.9

Dec 2016

54.5

52.1

56.2

51.9

59.5

Nov

54.7

51.8

53.5

51.4

60.7

Oct

54.0

50.9

53.7

51.5

60.6

Sep

53.7

51.4

51.7

50.1

61.1

Aug

53.5

49.8

52.6

50.4

59.4

Jul

53.9

49.9

51.4

49.5

59.5

Jun

53.7

50.8

51.6

50.6

58.6

May

53.1

49.2

51.6

49.8

57.8

Apr

53.5

48.7

52.1

49.1

59.1

Mar

53.8

50.8

51.4

49.5

59.0

Feb

52.7

48.7

50.5

48.3

59.5

Jan

53.5

49.6

49.9

47.7

58.4

Dec2015

54.4

51.7

49.0

48.2

58.3

Nov

53.6

50.2

49.3

47.7

60.0

Oct

53.1

51.2

51.2

48.8

61.1

Sep

53.4

50.2

50.8

47.9

60.0

Aug

53.4

49.6

49.6

47.8

59.7

Jul

53.9

50.1

48.9

47.4

60.0

Jun

53.8

51.3

50.6

48.7

59.7

May

53.2

49.5

52.8

50.4

60.1

Apr

53.4

49.1

50.8

48.9

60.0

Mar

53.7

50.3

50.0

48.4

58.8

Feb

53.9

51.2

52.5

51.2

58.7

Jan

53.7

50.2

47.6

46.9

59.6

Dec 2014

54.1

50.5

50.1

47.3

59.5

Nov

53.9

50.1

50.6

47.7

59.7

Oct

53.8

51.0

52.0

48.8

59.9

Sep

54.0

49.5

49.8

47.3

60.9

Aug

54.4

50.0

52.2

48.3

61.2

Jul

54.2

50.7

53.4

49.5

61.5

Jun

55.0

50.7

56.0

50.8

60.4

May

55.5

52.7

54.5

49.0

60.7

Apr

54.8

50.8

52.4

49.4

61.5

Mar

54.5

50.8

52.8

49.5

61.5

Feb

55.0

51.4

52.1

49.0

59.9

Jan

53.4

50.9

54.5

50.1

58.1

Dec 2013

54.6

51.0

56.9

52.0

58.7

Nov

56.0

51.0

54.8

49.5

61.3

Oct

56.3

51.6

56.1

51.4

60.5

Sep

55.4

53.4

56.7

50.6

60.1

Aug

53.9

50.9

57.1

51.2

62.9

Jul

54.1

50.3

58.2

52.4

63.9

Jun

53.9

50.3

55.0

50.6

61.8

May

54.3

50.1

54.4

50.7

62.9

Apr

54.5

50.9

51.1

47.6

62.5

Mar

55.6

52.0

55.3

50.0

62.4

Feb

54.5

51.8

56.2

51.1

62.7

Jan

56.2

53.7

58.2

50.9

61.4

Dec 2012

56.1

54.3

53.8

50.0

64.6

Nov

55.6

53.2

52.5

48.4

64.6

Oct

55.5

51.6

58.1

50.5

63.4

Sep

53.7

51.8

57.5

51.3

60.9

Aug

56.3

52.7

57.6

51.2

63.2

Jul

55.6

53.2

49.7

48.7

63.9

Jun

56.7

53.7

52.1

48.6

65.5

May

55.2

52.5

53.6

48.5

65.4

Apr

56.1

52.7

57.9

50.3

66.1

Mar

58.0

53.5

60.2

52.0

66.6

Feb

57.3

52.7

59.0

51.2

63.8

Jan

55.7

52.2

58.2

51.1

65.3

Notes: Interm.: Intermediate; Subs: Subscription; Exp: Business Expectations

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart CIPMNM provides China’s nonmanufacturing purchasing managers’ index. The index fell from 56.0 in Oct 2013 to 54.9 in Jun 2017.

Chart CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Table CIPMMFG provides the index of purchasing managers of manufacturing seasonally adjusted of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The general index (IPM) rose from 50.5 in Jan 2012 to 53.3 in Apr 2012, falling to 49.2 in Aug 2012, rebounding to 50.6 in Dec 2012. The index fell to 50.3 in Jul 2013, barely above the neutral frontier at 50.0, recovering to 51.4 in Nov 2013 but falling to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.5 in Jan 2014, 50.1 in Dec 2014 and 51.2 in May 2017. The index of new orders fell from 54.5 in Apr 2012 to 51.2 in Dec 2012. The index of new orders fell from 52.3 in Nov 2013 to 52.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.9 in Jan 2014 and moved to 50.4 in Dec 2014. The index moved to 52.3 in May 2017.

Table CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted

IPM

PI

NOI

INV

EMP

SDEL

2017

Jul

51.4

53.5

52.8

48.5

49.2

50.1

Jun

51.7

54.4

53.1

48.6

49.0

49.9

May

51.2

53.4

52.3

48.5

49.4

50.2

Apr

51.2

53.8

52.3

48.3

49.2

50.5

Mar

51.8

54.2

53.3

48.3

50.0

50.3

Feb

51.6

53.7

53.0

48.6

49.7

50.5

Jan

51.3

53.1

52.8

48.0

49.2

49.8

2016

Dec

51.4

53.3

53.2

48.0

48.9

50.0

Nov

51.7

53.9

53.2

48.4

49.2

49.7

Oct

51.2

53.3

52.8

48.1

48.8

50.2

Sep

50.4

52.8

50.9

47.4

48.6

49.9

Aug

50.4

52.6

51.3

47.6

48.4

50.6

Jul

49.9

52.1

50.4

47.3

48.2

50.5

Jun

50.0

52.5

50.5

47.0

47.9

50.7

May

50.1

52.3

50.7

47.6

48.2

50.4

Apr

50.1

52.2

51.0

47.4

47.8

50.1

Mar

50.2

52.3

51.4

48.2

48.1

51.3

Feb

49.0

50.2

48.6

48.0

47.6

49.8

Jan

49.4

51.4

49.5

46.8

47.8

50.5

2015

Dec

49.7

52.2

50.2

47.6

47.4

50.7

Nov

49.6

51.9

49.8

47.1

47.6

50.6

Oct

49.8

52.2

50.3

47.2

47.8

50.6

Sep

49.8

52.3

50.2

47.5

47.9

50.8

Aug

49.7

51.7

49.7

48.3

47.9

50.6

Jul

50.0

52.4

49.9

48.4

48.0

50.4

Jun

50.2

52.9

50.1

48.7

48.1

50.3

May

50.2

52.9

50.6

48.2

48.2

50.9

Apr

50.1

52.6

50.2

48.2

48.0

50.4

Mar

50.1

52.1

50.2

48.0

48.4

50.1

Feb

49.9

51.4

50.4

48.2

47.8

49.9

Jan

49.8

51.7

50.2

47.3

47.9

50.2

2014

Dec

50.1

52.2

50.4

47.5

48.1

49.9

Nov

50.3

52.5

50.9

47.7

48.2

50.3

Oct

50.8

53.1

51.6

48.4

48.4

50.1

Sep

51.1

53.6

52.2

48.8

48.2

50.1

Aug

51.1

53.2

52.5

48.6

48.2

50.0

Jul

51.7

54.2

53.6

49.0

48.3

50.2

Jun

51.0

53.0

52.8

48.0

48.6

50.5

May

50.8

52.8

52.3

48.0

48.2

50.3

Apr

50.4

52.5

51.2

48.1

48.3

50.1

Mar

50.3

52.7

50.6

47.8

48.3

49.8

Feb

50.2

52.6

50.5

47.4

48.0

49.9

Jan

50.5

53.0

50.9

47.8

48.2

49.8

Dec 2013

51.0

53.9

52.0

47.6

48.7

50.5

Nov

51.4

54.5

52.3

47.8

49.6

50.6

Oct

51.4

54.4

52.5

48.6

49.2

50.8

Sep

51.1

52.9

52.8

48.5

49.1

50.8

Aug

51.0

52.6

52.4

48.0

49.3

50.4

Jul

50.3

52.4

50.6

47.6

49.1

50.1

Jun

50.1

52.0

50.4

47.4

48.7

50.3

May

50.8

53.3

51.8

47.6

48.8

50.8

Apr

50.6

52.6

51.7

47.5

49.0

50.8

Mar

50.9

52.7

52.3

47.5

49.8

51.1

Feb

50.1

51.2

50.1

49.5

47.6

48.3

Jan

50.4

51.3

51.6

50.1

47.8

50.0

Dec 2012

50.6

52.0

51.2

47.3

49.0

48.8

Nov

50.6

52.5

51.2

47.9

48.7

49.9

Oct

50.2

52.1

50.4

47.3

49.2

50.1

Sep

49.8

51.3

49.8

47.0

48.9

49.5

Aug

49.2

50.9

48.7

45.1

49.1

50.0

Jul

50.1

51.8

49.0

48.5

49.5

49.0

Jun

50.2

52.0

49.2

48.2

49.7

49.1

May

50.4

52.9

49.8

45.1

50.5

49.0

Apr

53.3

57.2

54.5

48.5

51.0

49.6

Mar

53.1

55.2

55.1

49.5

51.0

48.9

Feb

51.0

53.8

51.0

48.8

49.5

50.3

Jan

50.5

53.6

50.4

49.7

47.1

49.7

IPM: Index of Purchasing Managers; PI: Production Index; NOI: New Orders Index; EMP: Employed Person Index; SDEL: Supplier Delivery Time Index

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

China estimates the manufacturing index of purchasing managers on the basis of a sample of 820 enterprises (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Chart CIPMMFG provides the manufacturing index of purchasing managers. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013. The index decreased from 51.4 in Nov 2013 to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index moved to 51.7 in Jun 2017.

Chart CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Growth of China’s GDP in IIQ2017 relative to the same period in 2016 was 6.9 percent and cumulative growth to IIQ2017 was 6.9 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDP. Secondary industry accounts for 40.1 percent of cumulative GDP in IIQ2017. In cumulative IIQ2017, industry accounts for 34.4 percent of GDP and construction for 5.9 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 54.1 percent of cumulative GDP in IIQ2017 and primary industry for 5.8 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is shifting to lower growth rates with improvement in living standards by increasing growth of services. The bottom block of Table VC-GDP provides quarter-on-quarter growth rates of GDP and their annual equivalent. China’s GDP growth decelerated significantly from annual equivalent 10.0 percent in IQ2011 to 6.1 percent in IVQ2011 and 7.4 percent in IQ2012, rebounding to 8.7 percent in IIQ2012, 7.8 percent in IIIQ2012 and 8.2 percent in IVQ2012. Annual equivalent growth in IQ2013 eased to 7.4 percent and to 7.0 percent in IIQ2013, rebounding to 9.1 percent in IIIQ2013. Annual equivalent growth was 7.0 percent in IVQ2013, decreasing to 6.1 percent in IQ2014 and increasing to 7.4 percent in IIQ2014. Annual equivalent growth stabilized at 7.4 percent in IIIQ2014 and 7.8 percent in IVQ2014. Growth increased to annual equivalent 8.2 percent in IQ2015, decreasing to 7.0 percent in IIQ2015 and 7.4 percent in IIIQ2015. Growth slowed to 6.1 percent in annual equivalent in IVQ2015 and 5.3 percent in IQ2016. Growth increased to annual equivalent 7.8 percent in IIQ2016 and 7.4 percent in IIIQ2016, decreasing to 7.0 percent in IVQ2016. Growth decelerated to annual equivalent 5.3 percent in IQ2017, accelerating to 7.0 percent in IIQ2017.

Table VC-GDP China, Quarterly Growth of GDP, Current CNY 100 Million and Inflation Adjusted ∆%

Cumulative GDP IIQ2017

Value Current CNY Billion IIQ2017

Value Current CNY Billion IQ2017 to IIQ2017

IIQ2017 Year-on-Year Constant Prices ∆%

Cumulative to IIQ2017

∆%

GDP

20,080.7

38,149.0

6.9

6.9

Primary Industry

1,333.3

2,198.7

3.8

3.5

Farming

1,388.8

2,229.9

3.9

3.6

Secondary Industry

8,298.3

15,298.7

6.4

6.4

Industry

6,932.4

13,124.4

6.6

6.5

Construction

1,396.6

2,232.6

5.4

5.3

Tertiary Industry

10,449.1

20,651.6

7.6

7.7

Transport, Storage, Post

936.9

1,747.5

9.6

9.2

Wholesale, Retail Trades

1,858.7

3,638.3

7.1

7.3

Accommodation and Restaurants

331.6

672.5

7.0

7.2

Finance

1,632.8

3,354.2

3.2

3.8

Real Estate

1,325.9

2,565.2

6.2

6.9

Other

3,035.4

6,071.4

7.2

7.0

Growth in Quarter Relative to Prior Quarter

∆% on Prior Quarter

∆% Annual Equivalent

∆% Year-on-Year

2017

IIQ2017

1.7

7.0

6.9

IQ2017

1.3

5.3

6.9

2016

IVQ2016

1.7

7.0

6.8

IIIQ2016

1.8

7.4

6.7

IIQ2016

1.9

7.8

6.7

IQ2016

1.3

5.3

6.7

2015

IVQ2015

1.5

6.1

6.8

IIIQ2015

1.8

7.4

6.9

IIQ2015

1.7

7.0

7.0

IQ2015

2.0

8.2

7.0

2014

IVQ2014

1.9

7.8

7.2

IIIQ2014

1.8

7.4

7.1

IIQ2014

1.8

7.4

7.5

IQ2014

1.5

6.1

7.4

2013

IVQ2013

1.7

7.0

7.7

IIIQ2013

2.2

9.1

7.9

IIQ2013

1.7

7.0

7.6

IQ2013

1.8

7.4

7.9

2012

IVQ2012

2.0

8.2

8.1

IIIQ2012

1.9

7.8

7.5

IIQ2012

2.1

8.7

7.6

IQ2012

1.8

7.4

8.1

2011

IVQ2011

1.5

6.1

8.8

IIIQ2011

1.9

7.8

9.4

IIQ2011

2.4

10.0

10.0

IQ2011

2.4

10.0

10.2

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Growth of China’s GDP in IIQ2017 relative to the same period in 2017 was 6.9 percent and cumulative growth to IIQ2017 was 6.9 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDP. Secondary industry accounts for 40.1 percent of cumulative GDP in IIQ2017. In cumulative IIQ2017, industry accounts for 34.4 percent of GDP and construction for 5.9 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 54.1 percent of cumulative GDP in IIQ2017 and primary industry for 5.8 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is shifting to lower growth rates with improvement in living standards by increasing growth of services. Table VC-GDPA shows that growth decelerated from 12.1 percent in IQ2010 and 11.2 percent in IIQ2010 to 7.9 percent in IQ2013, 7.6 percent in IIQ2013 and 7.9 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP grew 7.7 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 1.7 percent relative to IIIQ2013, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent per year. GDP grew 7.4 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.5 percent in IQ2014 that is equivalent to 6.1 percent per year. GDP grew 7.5 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is annual equivalent 7.4 percent. In IIIQ2014, GDP grew 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is 7.4 percent in annual equivalent. GDP grew 1.9 percent in IVQ2014, which is 7.8 percent in annual equivalent and 7.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2015, GDP grew 2.0 percent, which is equivalent to 8.2 in a year and 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 1.7 percent in IIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent in a year, and grew 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.8 percent in IIIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.4 percent in a year, and grew 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.5 percent in IVQ2015, which is equivalent to 6.1 percent in a year and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, GDP grew at 1.3 percent, which is equivalent to 5.3 percent in a year, and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.9 percent in IIQ2016, which is annual equivalent to 7.8 percent, and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, GDP grew at 1.8 percent, which is equivalent to 7.4 percent in a year and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, GDP grew at 1.7 percent, equivalent to 7.0 percent in a year, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 6.9 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased at 1.3 percent, which is 5.3 percent in annual equivalent. In IIQ2017, GDP grew at 1.7 percent, which is annual equivalent to 7.0 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier.

Table VC-GDPA China, Growth Rate of GDP, ∆% Relative to a Year Earlier and ∆% Relative to Prior Quarter

IQ2017

IIQ2017

GDP

6.9

6.9

Primary Industry

3.0

3.8

Secondary Industry

6.4

6.4

Tertiary Industry

7.7

7.6

GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter

1.3

1.7

IQ2015

IIQQ2015

IIIQ2015

IVQ2015

IQ2016

IIQ2016

IIIQ2016

IVQ2016

GDP

7.0

7.0

6.9

6.8

6.7

6.7

6.7

6.8

Primary Industry

3.2

3.5

3.8

4.1

2.9

3.1

3.5

2.9

Secondary Industry

6.4

6.1

6.0

6.1

5.8

6.3

6.1

6.1

Tertiary Industry

7.9

8.4

8.4

8.2

7.6

7.5

7.6

8.3

GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter

2.0

1.7

1.8

1.5

1.3

1.9

1.8

1.7

IQ 2013

IIQ 2013

IIIQ 2013

IVQ 2013

IQ

2014

IIQ 2014

IIIQ 2014

IVQ

2014

GDP

7.9

7.6

7.9

7.7

7.4

7.5

7.1

7.2

Primary Industry

3.4

3.0

3.4

4.0

3.5

3.9

4.2

4.1

Secondary Industry

7.8

7.6

7.8

7.8

7.3

7.4

7.4

7.3

Tertiary Industry

8.3

8.3

8.4

8.3

7.1

8.0

7.9

8.1

GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter

1.8

1.7

2.2

1.7

1.5

1.8

1.8

1.9

IQ 2011

IIQ 2011

IIIQ 2011

IVQ 2011

IQ 

2012

IIQ 2012

IIIQ 2012

IVQ 2012

GDP

10.2

10.0

9.4

8.8

8.1

7.6

7.5

8.1

Primary Industry

3.5

3.2

3.8

4.5

3.8

4.3

4.2

4.5

Secondary Industry

11.1

11.0

10.8

10.6

9.1

8.3

8.1

8.1

Tertiary Industry

9.1

9.2

9.0

8.9

7.5

7.7

7.9

8.1

GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter

2.4

2.4

1.9

1.5

1.8

2.1

1.9

2.0

IQ 2010

IIQ 2010

IIIQ 2010

IVQ 2010

GDP

12.1

11.2

10.7

12.1

Primary Industry

3.8

3.6

4.0

3.8

Secondary Industry

14.5

13.3

12.6

14.5

Tertiary Industry

10.5

9.9

9.7

10.5

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Growth of China’s GDP in IVQ2016 relative to the same period in 2016 was 6.8 percent and

Chart VC-GDP of the National Bureau of Statistics of China provides annual value and growth rates of GDP. China’s GDP growth in 2016 is still high at 6.7 percent but at the lowest rhythm in five years.

Chart VC-GDP, China, Gross Domestic Product, Million Yuan and ∆%

Source: National bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart VC-FXR provides China’s foreign exchange reserves. FX reserves grew from $2399.2 billion in 2009 to $38430 billion in 2013 driven by high growth of China’s trade surplus, decreasing to $30105 billion in 2016.

Chart VC-FXR, China, Foreign Exchange Reserves, 2012-2016

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Chart VC-Trade provides China’s imports and exports. Exports exceeded imports with resulting large trade balance surpluses that increased foreign exchange reserves.

Chart VC-Trade, China, Imports and Exports of Goods, 2012-2016, $100 Million US Dollars

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Chart VC-PCDI provides the level and growth rates of per capita disposable income in China.

Chart VC-PCDI, China, Level and Growth Rates of Per Capita Disposable Income

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

The Caixin Flash China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) compiled by Markit (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/883014a121534f51bc42e5060845f727) is mixed. The overall Flash Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI™ decreased from 47.3 in Aug to 47.0 in Sep, while the Flash Caixin China General Manufacturing Output Index decreased from 46.4 in Aug to 45.7 in Aug, indicating weaker conditions. He Fan, Chief Economist at Caixin Insight Group finds need of fiscal and monetary policy (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/883014a121534f51bc42e5060845f727). The Caixin China General Services PMI™, compiled by Markit, shows the Caixin Composite Output, combining manufacturing and services, increased from 51.1 in Jun to 51.9 in Jul (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e205c2b485654fe0b7d59b2655ce168b). Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at CEBM Group, finds slowing services (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e205c2b485654fe0b7d59b2655ce168b). The Caixin General Manufacturing PMI™ increased to 51.1 in Jul from 50.4 in Jun, indicating improving growth conditions in manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/6d85656c03274a8884edbe3a4205eaf5). Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at CEBM Group, finds consistent conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/6d85656c03274a8884edbe3a4205eaf5). Table CNY provides the country data table for China.

Table CNY, China, Economic Indicators

Price Indexes for Industry

Jul 12-month ∆%: 5.5

Jul month ∆%: 0.2
Blog 8/20/17

Consumer Price Index

Jul 12-month ∆%: 1.4 Jul month ∆%: 0.1
Blog 8/13/17

Value Added of Industry

Jul month ∆%: 0.41

Jan-Jul 2017/Jan-Jul 2016 ∆%: 6.8

Earlier Data
Blog 4/19/15

GDP Growth Rate

Year IIQ2017 ∆%: 6.9

II Quarter 2017 ∆%: 1.7
Quarter IIQ2017 AE ∆%: 7.0
Blog 7/23/17

Investment in Fixed Assets

Total Jan-Jul 2017 ∆%: 8.3

Real estate development: 7.9

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/19/15

Retail Sales

Jun month ∆%: 0.73
Jan-Jul 2017 ∆%: 10.4

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/19/15

Trade Balance

Jun balance $46.74 billion
Exports 12M ∆% 7.2
Imports 12M ∆% 11.0

2016 Exports ∆% 11.3

2016 Imports ∆% 17.3

Cumulative Jun 2017: $231.7 billion

Cumulative Jun 2016: $287.8

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/19/15

Links to blog comments in Table CNY: 8/13/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million_40.html

7/23/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/dollar-devaluation-and-valuation-of.html

7/16/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

6/18/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/fomc-interest-rate-increase-planned.html

23/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/04/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

VD Euro Area. Using calendar and seasonally adjusted data (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of the euro area (19 countries) fell 5.7 percent from IQ2008 to IIQ2009. The GDP of the euro area (19 countries) increased 8.6 percent from IIIQ2009 to IVQ2016 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.1 percent. The GDP of the euro area (19 countries) is higher by 2.4 percent in IVQ2016 relative to the pre-recession peak in IQ2008, growing at annual equivalent rate of 0.3 percent. The GDP of the euro area (18) countries increased at the average yearly rate of 2.3 percent from IQ1999 to IQ2008 while that of the euro area (19 countries) increased at 2.3 percent. Table VD-EUR provides yearly growth rates of the combined GDP of the members of the European Monetary Union (EMU) or euro area since 1999. Growth was very strong at 3.2 percent in 2006 and 3.0 percent in 2007. The global recession had strong impact with growth of only 0.4 percent in 2008 and decline of 4.5 percent in 2009. Recovery was at lower growth rates of 2.1 percent in 2010 and 1.5 percent in 2011. EUROSTAT estimates growth of GDP of the euro area of minus 0.9 percent in 2012 and minus 0.3 percent in 2013. Euro Area GDP grew 1.2 percent in 2014 and grew 2.0 percent in 2015. The GDP of the euro area grew 1.7 percent in 2016.

Table VD-EUR, Euro Area, Yearly Percentage Change of Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, Unemployment and GDP ∆%

Year

HICP ∆%

Unemployment
%

GDP ∆%

1999

1.2

9.7

3.0

2000

2.2

8.9

3.8

2001

2.4

8.3

2.1

2002

2.3

8.6

1.0

2003

2.1

9.1

0.7

2004

2.2

9.3

2.3

2005

2.2

9.1

1.7

2006

2.2

8.4

3.2

2007

2.2

7.5

3.0

2008

3.3

7.6

0.4

2009

0.3

9.6

-4.5

2010

1.6

10.2

2.1

2011

2.7

10.2

1.5

2012

2.5

11.4

-0.9

2013

1.3

12.0

-0.3

2014

0.4

11.6

1.2

2015

0.0

10.9

2.0

2016

0.2

10.0

1.7

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

The GDP of the euro area in 2015 in current US dollars in the dataset of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is $11,990.9 billion or 16.3 percent of world GDP of $73,598.8 billion (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/02/weodata/index.aspx). The sum of the GDP of France $2420.2 billion with the GDP of Germany of $3365.3 billion, Italy of $1815.8 billion and Spain $1199.7 billion is $8,801.0 billion or 73.4 percent of total euro area GDP and 13.1 percent of World GDP. The four largest economies account for slightly more than three quarters of economic activity of the euro area. Table VD-EUR1 is constructed with the dataset of EUROSTAT, providing growth rates of the euro area as a whole and of the largest four economies of Germany, France, Italy and Spain annually from 1996 to 2016. The impact of the global recession on the overall euro area economy and on the four largest economies was quite strong. There was sharp contraction in 2009 and growth rates have not rebounded to earlier growth with exception of Germany in 2010 and 2011.

Table VD-EUR1, Euro Area, Real GDP Growth Rate, ∆%

Euro Area

Germany

France

Italy

Spain

2016

1.7

1.9

1.2

0.9

3.2

2015

2.0

1.7

1.3

0.8

3.2

2014

1.2

1.6

0.6

0.1

1.4

2013

-0.3

0.5

0.6

-1.7

-1.7

2012

-0.9

0.5

0.2

-2.8

-2.9

2011

1.5

3.7

2.1

0.6

-1.0

2010

2.1

4.1

2.0

1.7

0.0

2009

-4.5

-5.6

-2.9

-5.5

-3.6

2008

0.4

1.1

0.2

-1.1

1.1

2007

3.0

3.3

2.4

1.5

3.8

2006

3.2

3.7

2.4

2.0

4.2

2005

1.7

0.7

1.6

0.9

3.7

2004

2.3

1.2

2.8

1.6

3.2

2003

0.7

-0.7

0.8

0.2

3.2

2002

1.0

0.0

1.1

0.2

2.9

2001

2.1

1.7

2.0

1.8

4.0

2000

3.8

3.0

3.9

3.7

5.3

1999

3.0

2.0

3.4

1.6

4.5

1998

2.9

2.0

3.6

1.6

4.3

Average 1999-2016

1.2

1.3

1.3

0.3

1.7

Average 1999-2007

2.2

1.6

2.1

1.5

3.8

Average 2016-2007

0.3

1.0

0.6

-7.0*

-0.5*

1997

2.6

1.8

2.3

1.8

3.7

1996

1.6

0.8

1.4

1.3

2.7

Note: Absolute percentage change

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

The Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index of the HIS Markit Flash Eurozone PMI®, combining activity in manufacturing and services, decreased from 56.3 in Jun to 55.8 in Jul (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c42aa9977e384c09aaf6fbd41afd596b). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds that the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI index suggests GDP growth about 0.7 percent quarterly (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c42aa9977e384c09aaf6fbd41afd596b). The IHS Markit Eurozone PMI® Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing activity with close association with GDP decreased from 56.3 in Jun to 55.7 in Jul (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/a1527aaa2afc4dcaa5b6198797a4006d). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds potential for growth of about 0.5 percent in quarterly GDP (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c8ecb5c434b442ae9589cb69b4f4672d). The IHS Markit Eurozone Services Business Activity Index did not change from 55.4 in Jun to 55.4 in Jul (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/a1527aaa2afc4dcaa5b6198797a4006d). The IHS Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI® decreased from 57.4 in Jun to 56.6 in Jul (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/31851d9bffbd49f5baabe90d4d74fbde). New export orders increased. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds strong industrial growth (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/31851d9bffbd49f5baabe90d4d74fbde). Table EUR provides the data table for the euro area.

Table EUR, Euro Area Economic Indicators

GDP

IIQ2017 ∆% 0.6; IIQ2017/IIQ2016 ∆% 2.2 Blog 9/13/15 11/22/15 12/13/15 2/14/16 3/13/16 5/1/16 5/15/16 6/12/16 8/7/16 8/14/16 9/11/16 11/20/16 12/11/16 02/26/17 3/12/17 5/21/17 6/11/17 8/20/17

Unemployment 

Jun 2017: 9.1 % unemployment rate; Jun 2017: 14.718 million unemployed

Blog 8/6/17

HICP

Jul month ∆%: -0.5

12 months Apr ∆%: 1.3
Blog 8/20//17

Producer Prices

Euro Zone industrial producer prices Jun ∆%: -0.1
Jun 12-month ∆%: 2.5
Blog 8/13/17

Industrial Production

Jun Month ∆%: -0.6; 12 months ∆%: 2.6

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/19/15

Retail Sales

Jun month ∆%: 0.5
Jun 12 months ∆%: 3.1

Earlier Data:
Blog 3/15/15

Confidence and Economic Sentiment Indicator

Sentiment 111.2 Jul 2017

Consumer minus -0.8 Jul 2017

Earlier Data:

Blog 4/5/15

Trade

Jan-Jun 2017/Jan-Jun 2016 Exports ∆%: 7.9
Imports ∆%: 11.6

Jun 2017 12-month Exports ∆% 3.9 Imports ∆% 6.2

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/19/15

Links to blog comments in Table EUR: 8/13/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million_40.html

8/6/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/data-dependent-monetary-policy-with.html

7/23/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/dollar-devaluation-and-valuation-of.html

7/9/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/rising-yields-twenty-two-million.html

6/25/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/united-states-commercial-banks-united.html

6/18/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/fomc-interest-rate-increase-planned.html

6/11/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/flattening-us-treasury-yield-curve.html

6/4/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

5/21/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/dollar-devaluation-world-inflation.html

3/12/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/increasing-interest-rates-twenty-four.html

2/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

12/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/rising-values-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/20/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/interest-rate-increase-could-well.html

11/13/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/dollar-revaluation-and-valuations-of.html

11/6/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/the-case-for-increase-in-federal-funds.html

9/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/interest-rate-uncertainty-and-valuation.html

8/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

8/7/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/global-competitive-easing-or.html

6/12/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/considerable-uncertainty-about-economic.html

5/15/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

5/1/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/economic-activity-appears-to-have.html

3/13/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/monetary-policy-and-fluctuations-of_13.html

3/6/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/twenty-five-million-unemployed-or.html

2/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/subdued-foreign-growth-and-dollar.html

12/13/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/liftoff-of-interest-rates-with-volatile_17.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

Table VD-1 provides percentage changes of euro area real GDP in a quarter relative to the prior quarter. Real GDP fell 0.4 percent in IVQ2011, fell 0.1 in IQ2012 and fell in the final three quarters of 2012: 0.3 percent in IIQ2012, 0.2 percent in IIIQ2012 and 0.5 percent in IVQ2012. GDP fell 0.3 percent in IQ2013 and increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2013. Growth slowed at 0.3 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2013. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IQ2014 and increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2014. GDP in the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2014. Euro area GDP increased 0.8 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2015. Euro area GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2015. GDP in the euro area increased 0.5 percent in IQ2016 and increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2016. Euro area GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2016. GDP in the euro area increased 0.6 percent in IVQ2016. Euro area GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2017. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2017. The global recession manifested in the euro area in five consecutive quarterly declines from IIQ2008 to IIQ2009. The strongest impact was contraction of 3.0 percent in IQ2009. Recovery began in IIIQ2009 with cumulative growth of 4.1 percent to IQ2011 or at the annual equivalent rate of 2.3 percent. Growth was much more vigorous from IVQ2003 to IQ2008. Using calendar and seasonally adjusted chain-linked volumes (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of the euro area (19 countries) fell 5.7 percent from IQ2008 to IIQ2009. The GDP of the euro area (19 countries) increased 10.1 percent from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2017 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.2 percent. The GDP of the euro area (19 countries) is higher by 3.8 percent in IIQ2017 relative to the pre-recession peak in IQ2008, growing at annual equivalent rate of 0.4 percent. The GDP of the euro area (18) countries increased at the average yearly rate of 2.3 percent from IQ1999 to IQ2008 while that of the euro area (19 countries) increased at 2.3 percent. The GDP of the euro area (19 countries) grew at 2.3 percent annual equivalent from IQ1999 to the pre-recession peak in IQ2008. The GDP of the euro area would grow under trend of 2.3 percent from €2,470,627.4 million in IQ2008 to €3,048,996 million in IIQ2017. The estimate of GDP of €2,564,620.3 million in IIQ2017 is 16.0 percent below trend.

Table VD-1, Euro Area, Real GDP, Percentage Change from Prior Quarter, Calendar and Seasonally and Working Day Adjusted ∆%

IQ

IIQ

IIIQ

IVQ

2017

0.5

0.6

2016

0.5

0.3

0.4

0.6

2015

0.8

0.3

0.3

0.4

2014

0.3

0.2

0.4

0.4

2013

-0.3

0.5

0.3

0.3

2012

-0.1

-0.3

-0.2

-0.5

2011

0.8

0.0

0.0

-0.4

2010

0.4

1.0

0.4

0.6

2009

-3.0

-0.2

0.3

0.5

2008

0.5

-0.3

-0.6

-1.7

2007

0.8

0.6

0.5

0.5

2006

0.9

1.1

0.7

1.1

2005

0.2

0.6

0.7

0.6

2004

0.6

0.5

0.3

0.4

2003

-0.2

0.0

0.5

0.7

2002

0.2

0.5

0.4

0.1

2001

0.8

0.1

0.1

0.2

2000

1.1

0.9

0.5

0.8

1999

0.9

0.7

1.1

1.3

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

Table VD-2 provides percentage change in real GDP in the euro area in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Growth rates were quite strong from 2004 to 2007. There were five consecutive quarters of sharp declines in GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier from IVQ2008 to IVQ2009 with sharp contractions of 5.5 percent in IQ2009, 5.4 percent in IIQ2009 and 4.6 percent in IIIQ2009.  Growth rates decline in magnitude with 1.4 percent in IIIQ2011, 0.5 percent in IVQ211 and -0.5 percent in IQ2012 followed by contractions of 0.8 percent in IIQ2012, 1.0 percent in IIIQ2012 and 1.1 percent in IVQ2012. GDP contracted 1.2 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and contracted 0.4 percent in IIQ2013 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2013 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 1.4 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, the GDP of the euro area increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 1.2 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.3 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 1.8 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.9 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 1.9 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 1.9 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 1.7 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 1.7 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 1.7 percent in IIIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 1.9 percent in IVQ2016 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 1.9 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 2.2 percent in IIQ2017 relative to a year earlier.

Table VD-2, Euro Area, Real GDP Percentage Change in a Quarter Relative to Same Quarter a

Year Earlier, Seasonally and Working Day Adjusted ∆%

IQ

IIQ

IIIQ

IV

2017

1.9

2.2

2016

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.9

2015

1.8

1.9

1.9

1.9

2014

1.4

1.1

1.2

1.3

2013

-1.2

-0.4

0.0

0.8

2012

-0.5

-0.8

-1.0

-1.1

2011

2.9

1.9

1.4

0.5

2010

1.0

2.2

2.4

2.4

2009

-5.5

-5.4

-4.6

-2.4

2008

2.2

1.2

0.1

-2.1

2007

3.6

3.2

3.0

2.4

2006

2.9

3.4

3.3

3.8

2005

1.4

1.5

2.0

2.2

2004

1.9

2.4

2.2

1.8

2003

0.8

0.4

0.5

1.1

2002

0.6

0.9

1.3

1.2

2001

3.2

2.3

1.9

1.2

2000

4.2

4.5

3.9

3.4

1999

2.2

2.4

2.9

4.0

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

Table VD-3 provides growth of euro area real GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier not seasonally adjusted. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2013 NSA relative to a year earlier and increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.5 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 0.9 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.2 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.3 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.8 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 2.0 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 2.0 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 2.2 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 2.3 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.6 percent in IIIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.5 percent in IVQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 2.5 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.3 percent in IIQ2013 relative to a year earlier without seasonal adjustment and declined 1.8 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier without seasonal adjustment. Growth rates in 2006 and 2007 were quite strong followed by sharp declines of 5.6 percent in IQ2009, 6.0 percent in IIQ2009 and 4.4 percent in IQ2009.

Table VD-3, Euro Area, Real GDP Percentage Change in a Quarter Relative to Same Quarter a Year Earlier, Not Seasonally Adjusted ∆%

IQ

IIQ

IIIQ

IV

2017

2.5

2016

1.6

2.3

1.6

1.5

2015

1.8

2.0

2.0

2.2

2014

1.5

0.9

1.2

1.3

2013

-1.8

-0.3

0.4

0.7

2012

-0.2

-1.1

-1.1

-1.1

2011

3.0

1.9

1.5

0.1

2010

1.1

2.5

2.4

2.3

2009

-5.6

-6.0

-4.4

-2.1

2008

1.8

1.6

0.6

-2.1

2007

3.5

3.2

3.1

2.4

2006

3.6

2.7

3.1

3.6

2005

1.0

2.1

1.9

1.7

2004

2.2

2.7

2.2

2.0

2003

1.0

0.1

0.4

1.1

2002

0.2

1.2

1.6

1.0

2001

3.0

2.3

1.8

1.5

2000

4.9

4.3

3.5

2.8

1999

2.2

2.6

2.9

4.1

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

Table VD-4 provides GDP growth in IIQ2017 and relative to the same quarter a year earlier with SAWDA (seasonal and working day adjustment) and NSA (not seasonally adjusted) for the Euro zone, European Union, Japan and the US. The first estimate of euro area GDP SAWDA for IIQ2017 in Table VD-4 is growth of 0.6 percent in IIQ2017 and 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro zone increased 2.5 percent NSA in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the European Union increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2017, increased 2.3 percent SWDA in IIQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier NSA in IVQ2016. Growth has been weak worldwide with somewhat stronger performance by the US in the cycle as a whole but still insufficient to reduce unemployment and underemployment (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/data-dependent-monetary-policy-with.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/rising-yields-twenty-two-million.html)

Table VD-4, Euro Zone, European Union, Japan and USA, Real GDP Growth

∆% IQ2017/ IIQ2017 SAWDA

∆% IIQ2017/ IIQ2016 SWDA

∆% IQ2017/ IQ2016

NSA

Euro Zone

0.6

2.2

2.5

European Union

0.6

2.3

1.51

Germany

0.6

2.1

2.9

France

0.5

1.8

1.4

Netherlands

1.5

3.8

3.4

Finland

-0.5

1.7

3.6

Belgium

0.4

1.4

1.7

Portugal

0.2

2.8

3.1

Ireland1

-2.6

6.6

NA

Italy

0.4

1.5

2.1

Greece1

0.4

0.4

0.8

Spain

0.9

3.1

3.0

United Kingdom

0.3

1.7

1.6

Japan

1.0

NA

2.0

USA

0.6

2.1

NA

1 IVQ2016/IIIQ2016 IVQ2016/IVQ2016

*SAWDA: Seasonally and Working Day Adjusted except UK, Japan and USA

***NSA

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

VE Germany. Table VE-DE provides yearly growth rates of the German economy from 1971 to 2016, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked. Germany’s GDP fell 5.6 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.1 percent in 2008. Recovery has been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.1 percent in 2010, 3.7 percent in 2011 and 0.5 percent in 2012. Growth stabilized to 0.5 percent in 2013, increasing to 1.6 percent in 2014. The German economy grew at 1.7 percent in 2015 and grew at 1.9 percent in 2016.

The Federal Statistical Agency of Germany analyzes the fall and recovery of the German economy (http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Content/Statistics/VolkswirtschaftlicheGesamtrechnungen/Inlandsprodukt/Aktuell,templateId=renderPrint.psml):

“The German economy again grew strongly in 2011. The price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.0% compared with the previous year. Accordingly, the catching-up process of the German economy continued during the second year after the economic crisis. In the course of 2011, the price-adjusted GDP again exceeded its pre-crisis level. The economic recovery occurred mainly in the first half of 2011. In 2009, Germany experienced the most serious post-war recession, when GDP suffered a historic decline of 5.1%. The year 2010 was characterised by a rapid economic recovery (+3.7%).”

Table VE-DE, Germany, GDP ∆% on Prior Year

Price Adjusted Chain-Linked

Price- and Calendar-Adjusted Chain Linked

Average ∆% 1991-2016

1.3

Average ∆% 1991-1999

1.5

Average ∆% 2000-2007

1.4

Average ∆% 2003-2007

2.2

Average ∆% 2007-2016

1.0

Average ∆% 2009-2016

2.0

2016

1.9

1.9

2015

1.7

1.5

2014

1.9

1.9

2013

0.5

0.6

2012

0.5

0.7

2011

3.7

3.7

2010

4.1

3.9

2009

-5.6

-5.6

2008

1.1

0.8

2007

3.3

3.4

2006

3.7

3.9

2005

0.7

0.9

2004

1.2

0.7

2003

-0.7

-0.7

2002

0.0

0.0

2001

1.7

1.8

2000

3.0

3.2

1999

2.0

1.8

1998

2.0

1.8

1997

1.8

1.9

1996

0.8

0.9

1995

1.7

1.8

1994

2.5

2.5

1993

-1.0

-1.0

1992

1.9

1.5

1991

5.1

5.2

1990

5.3

5.5

1989

3.9

4.0

1988

3.7

3.4

1987

1.4

1.3

1986

2.3

2.3

1985

2.3

2.6

1984

2.8

2.9

1983

1.6

1.5

1982

-0.4

-0.5

1981

0.5

0.6

1980

1.4

1.3

1979

4.2

4.3

1978

3.0

3.1

1977

3.3

3.5

1976

4.9

4.5

1975

-0.9

-0.9

1974

0.9

1.0

1973

4.8

5.0

1972

4.3

4.3

1971

3.1

3.0

1970

NA

NA

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/NationalAccounts.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/DomesticProduct/CurrentRevision.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Methods/NationalAccountRevision/Revision2014_BackgroundPaper.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/02/PE14_048_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/08/PE13_278_811.html https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/11/PE13_381_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/01/PE14_016_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/DE/PresseService/Presse/Pressekonferenzen/2014/BIP2013/Pressebroschuere_BIP2013.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/05/PE14_167_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/09/PE14_306_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/11/PE14_401_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_048_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_61_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/05/PE15_173_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/05/PE15_187_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/08/PE15_293_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/08/PE15_305_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/11/PE15_419_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/11/PE15_430_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/DomesticProduct/DomesticProduct.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/02/PE16_056_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/02/PE16_044_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/05/PE16_162_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/05/PE16_171_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/08/PE16_279_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/08/PE16_291_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/11/PE16_403_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/11/PE16_413_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/02/PE17_050_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/02/PE17_062_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/05/PE17_155_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/05/PE17_169_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/08/PE17_277_811.html

The Flash Germany Composite Output Index of the IHS Markit Flash Germany PMI®, combining manufacturing and services, decreased from 56.4 in Jun to 55.1 in Jul. The index of manufacturing output reached 58.0 in Jul, decreasing from 60.9 in Jun, while the index of services decreased to 53.5 in Jul from 54.0 in Jun. The overall Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI® decreased from 59.6 in Jun to 58.3 in Jul (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/89f592851b5147a9b41c7ae177f34efe). New orders and new export orders in manufacturing increased. Trevor Balchin, Senior Economist at IHS Markit, finds slowing growth of the private sector of Germany (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/89f592851b5147a9b41c7ae177f34efe). The IHS Markit Germany Composite Output Index of the IHS Markit Germany Services PMI®, combining manufacturing and services with close association with Germany’s GDP, decreased from 56.4 in Jun to 54.7 in Jul (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/25556c0b47444bb5b84afb8880a27800). Trevor Balchin, Director, Economics, at IHS Markit, finds strong growth of Germany (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/25556c0b47444bb5b84afb8880a27800). The Germany Services Business Activity Index decreased from 54.0 in Jun to 53.1 in Jul (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/25556c0b47444bb5b84afb8880a27800). The IHS Markit/BME Germany Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®), showing close association with Germany’s manufacturing conditions, decreased from 59.6 in Jun to 58.1 in

Jul (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/7cf9dee4ee35426d966f9c325d8e4429). New export orders increased. Trevor Balchin, Senior Economist at IHS Markit, finds continuing growth conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/7cf9dee4ee35426d966f9c325d8e4429). Table DE provides the country data table for Germany.

Table DE, Germany, Economic Indicators

GDP

IIQ2017 0.6 ∆%; IIQ2017/IIQ2016 CA ∆% 2.1

2016/2015: 1.9%

GDP ∆% 1970-2015

Blog 8/26/12 5/27/12 11/25/12 2/24/13 5/19/13 5/26/13 8/18/13 8/25/13 11/17/13 11/24/13 1/26/14 2/16/14 3/2/14 5/18/14 5/25/14 8/17/14 9/7/14 11/16/14 11/30/14 2/15/15 3/1/15 5/17/15 5/24/15 8/16/15 8/30/15 11/22/15 11/29/15 2/14/16 2/28/16 5/15/16 5/29/16 8/14/16 8/28/16 11/20/16 11/27/16 2/19/17 02/26/17 05/14/17 5/28/17 8/20/17

Consumer Price Index

Jul month NSA ∆%: 0.4
Jul 12-month NSA ∆%: 1.7
Blog 8/13/17

Producer Price Index

Jul month ∆%: 0.2 NSA, 0.2 CSA
12-month NSA ∆%: 2.3
Blog 8/20/17

Industrial Production

MFG Jun month CSA ∆%: minus 1.4
12-month NSA: -4.1

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/12/15

Machine Orders

MFG Jun month ∆%: 1.0
Jun 12-month ∆%: 0.1

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/12/15

Retail Sales

Jun Month ∆% 1.1 May 0.5

12-Month Jun % 1.5 May 4.9

Earlier Data:

Blog 4/5/15

Employment Report

Unemployment Rate SA Jun 3.8%
Blog 8/6/17

Trade Balance

Exports Jun 12-month NSA ∆%: 0.7
Imports Jun 12 months NSA ∆%: 3.6
Exports Jun month CSA ∆%: -2.8; Imports Jun month CSA -4.5

Earlier Data:

Blog 4/12/15

Links to blog comments in Table DE: 8/13/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million_40.html

8/6/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/data-dependent-monetary-policy-with.html

7/23/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/dollar-devaluation-and-valuation-of.html

7/16/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

07/02/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/dollar-devaluation-and-rising-yields.html

6/25/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/united-states-commercial-banks-united.html

6/18/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/fomc-interest-rate-increase-planned.html

6/4/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

5/28/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

5/14/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million_14.html

2/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

02/19/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

11/27/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/dollar-revaluation-rising-yields-and.html

11/20/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/interest-rate-increase-could-well.html

11/13/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/dollar-revaluation-and-valuations-of.html

11/6/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/the-case-for-increase-in-federal-funds.html

8/28/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/and-as-ever-economic-outlook-is.html

8/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

5/29/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/appropriate-for-fed-to-increase.html

5/15/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

2/28/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

2/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/subdued-foreign-growth-and-dollar.html

11/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/dollar-revaluation-constraining.html

11/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-liftoff-followed-by.html

08/30/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/fluctuations-of-global-financial.html

08/16/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/exchange-rate-and-financial-asset.html

5/24/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/interest-rate-policy-and-dollar.html

5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

9/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/competitive-monetary-policy-and.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

1/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/01/capital-flows-exchange-rates-and.html

11/24/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html

8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

Table VE-1 provides percentage change of Germany’s GDP in one quarter relative to the prior quarter from 1999 to 2017. Germany’s GDP contracted during four consecutive quarters from IIQ2008 to IQ2009. The deepest contraction was 4.5 percent in IQ2009. Growth was quite strong from IIIQ2009 to IQ2011 for cumulative growth of 8.1 percent in seven quarters or at the average rate of 1.1 percent per quarter, which is equivalent to 4.5 percent per year. Economic growth decelerated in IIQ2011 to 0.2 percent and 0.5 percent in IIIQ2011. The economy grew 0.0 percent in IVQ2011 and grew 0.4 percent in IQ2012 but at 0.1 percent in IIQ2012. GDP growth in IIIQ2012 was 0.2 percent relative to IIQ2012. Germany’s GDP contracted 0.5 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IIIQ2012. GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IQ2013 and increased 0.9 percent in IIQ2013. Growth of GDP was 0.5 percent in IIIQ2013 and 0.4 percent in IVQ2013. Germany’s growth was robust at 0.9 percent in IQ2014 or 3.6 percent in annual equivalent. GDP contracted 0.2 percent in IIQ2014. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2014. The GDP of Germany increased 0.9 percent in IVQ2014. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2015 and grew 0.4 percent in IVQ2015. GDP grew 0.6 percent in IQ2016 and increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2016. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2016. GDP grew 0.7 percent in IQ2017 and increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2017.

Table VE-1, Germany Quarter GDP ∆% Relative to Prior Quarter, Seasonally and Calendar Adjusted 

IQ

IIQ

IIIQ

IV

2017

0.7

0.6

2016

0.6

0.5

0.3

0.4

2015

0.1

0.4

0.3

0.4

2014

0.9

-0.2

0.3

0.9

2013

-0.2

0.9

0.5

0.4

2012

0.4

0.1

0.2

-0.5

2011

1.8

0.2

0.5

0.0

2010

0.8

2.1

0.8

0.8

2009

-4.5

0.1

0.6

0.9

2008

0.9

-0.3

-0.4

-1.9

2007

0.4

0.7

0.8

0.3

2006

0.9

1.6

1.0

1.3

2005

-0.2

0.7

0.8

0.4

2004

0.0

0.3

-0.2

0.1

2003

-1.2

0.0

0.5

0.4

2002

-0.3

0.3

0.5

-0.2

2001

1.6

0.1

-0.3

0.1

2000

0.9

1.0

-0.2

0.1

1999

0.8

0.2

1.0

1.2

Seasonal and calendar adjusted Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/05/PE17_155_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/05/PE17_169_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/08/PE17_277_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/NationalAccounts.html

Table VE-2 provides percentage changes of Germany’s GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Growth was weak in the recovery from the recession of 2001 through 2005, as in most of the euro area (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 116-46). Germany’s economy then grew robustly in 2006 and 2007 until the global recession after 2007. Germany recovered with robust growth in 2010 and vigorous 6.0 percent in IQ2011 relative to a year earlier. The economy decelerated in the final three quarters of 2011, growing 1.6 percent in IQ2012 relative to IQ2011. Growth decelerated further to 0.4 percent in IIQ2012 without calendar adjustment and 0.9 percent with calendar adjustment and to 0.2 percent in IIIQ2012. Growth in IVQ2012 relative to IVQ2011 was minus 0.1 percent. GDP fell 1.5 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.9 percent in IIQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.2 percent in IIIQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 1.4 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 3.0 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.3 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.5 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 2.0 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.3 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.8 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.8 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 2.1 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.5 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 3.3 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, GDP increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 1.3 percent in IVQ2016 relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, GDP increased 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2017 relative to a year earlier but increased 2.1 percent in IIQ2017 relative to a year earlier when adjusting for calendar effects.

Table VE-2, Germany, Quarter GDP ∆% Relative to Same Quarter a Year Earlier, Price Adjusted NCSA 

IQ

IIQ

IIIQ

IV

2017

3.2

0.8

2016

1.5

3.3

1.7

1.3

2015

1.3

1.8

1.8

2.1

2014

3.0

1.3

1.5

2.0

2013

-1.5

0.9

1.2

1.4

2012

1.6

0.4

0.2

-0.1

2011

6.0

3.7

3.2

1.8

2010

2.6

4.7

4.6

4.4

2009

-6.6

-7.9

-5.6

-2.4

2008

2.1

3.1

1.1

-1.9

2007

4.3

3.4

3.3

2.1

2006

4.3

2.4

3.5

4.6

2005

-0.7

1.3

1.3

1.0

2004

1.6

1.6

0.6

0.9

2003

-0.4

-1.3

-0.8

-0.3

2002

-1.2

0.2

1.1

-0.1

2001

2.4

1.6

1.5

1.4

2000

4.4

4.0

2.6

1.0

1999

0.9

1.7

2.1

3.3

Price adjusted NSA Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/05/PE17_155_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/05/PE17_169_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/08/PE17_277_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/NationalAccounts.html

There are strong calendar effects in economic activity in Germany. Table VE-3 provides Germany’s percentage change in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier adjusting for price changes and calendar effects.

Table VE-3, Germany, Quarter GDP ∆% Relative to Same Quarter a Year Earlier, Calendar and Price Adjusted NSA 

IQ

IIQ

IIIQ

IV

2017

2.0

2.1

2016

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.8

2015

1.2

1.8

1.7

1.3

2014

2.8

1.7

1.4

1.9

2013

-0.3

0.5

0.7

1.5

2012

1.1

0.9

0.7

0.1

2011

5.7

3.6

3.3

2.3

2010

2.5

4.3

4.6

4.4

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/05/PE17_155_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/05/PE17_169_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/08/PE17_277_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/NationalAccounts.html

Table VE-4 provides yearly growth rates of the German economy from 1971 to 2016, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked. Germany’s GDP fell 5.6 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.1 percent in 2008. Recovery has been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.1 percent in 2010, 3.7 percent in 2011 and 0.5 percent in 2012. Growth stabilized to 0.5 percent in 2013, increasing to 1.6 percent in 2014. The German economy grew at 1.7 percent in 2015 and grew at 1.9 percent in 2016.

The Federal Statistical Agency of Germany analyzes the fall and recovery of the German economy (http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Content/Statistics/VolkswirtschaftlicheGesamtrechnungen/Inlandsprodukt/Aktuell,templateId=renderPrint.psml):

“The German economy again grew strongly in 2011. The price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.0% compared with the previous year. Accordingly, the catching-up process of the German economy continued during the second year after the economic crisis. In the course of 2011, the price-adjusted GDP again exceeded its pre-crisis level. The economic recovery occurred mainly in the first half of 2011. In 2009, Germany experienced the most serious post-war recession, when GDP suffered a historic decline of 5.1%. The year 2010 was characterised by a rapid economic recovery (+3.7%).”

Table VE-4, Germany, GDP ∆% on Prior Year

Price Adjusted Chain-Linked

Price- and Calendar-Adjusted Chain Linked

Average ∆% 1991-2016

1.3

Average ∆% 1991-1999

1.5

Average ∆% 2000-2007

1.4

Average ∆% 2003-2007

2.2

Average ∆% 2007-2016

1.0

Average ∆% 2009-2016

2.0

2016

1.9

1.9

2015

1.7

1.5

2014

1.9

1.9

2013

0.5

0.6

2012

0.5

0.7

2011

3.7

3.7

2010

4.1

3.9

2009

-5.6

-5.6

2008

1.1

0.8

2007

3.3

3.4

2006

3.7

3.9

2005

0.7

0.9

2004

1.2

0.7

2003

-0.7

-0.7

2002

0.0

0.0

2001

1.7

1.8

2000

3.0

3.2

1999

2.0

1.8

1998

2.0

1.8

1997

1.8

1.9

1996

0.8

0.9

1995

1.7

1.8

1994

2.5

2.5

1993

-1.0

-1.0

1992

1.9

1.5

1991

5.1

5.2

1990

5.3

5.5

1989

3.9

4.0

1988

3.7

3.4

1987

1.4

1.3

1986

2.3

2.3

1985

2.3

2.6

1984

2.8

2.9

1983

1.6

1.5

1982

-0.4

-0.5

1981

0.5

0.6

1980

1.4

1.3

1979

4.2

4.3

1978

3.0

3.1

1977

3.3

3.5

1976

4.9

4.5

1975

-0.9

-0.9

1974

0.9

1.0

1973

4.8

5.0

1972

4.3

4.3

1971

3.1

3.0

1970

NA

NA

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/NationalAccounts.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/DomesticProduct/CurrentRevision.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Methods/NationalAccountRevision/Revision2014_BackgroundPaper.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/02/PE14_048_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/08/PE13_278_811.html https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/11/PE13_381_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/01/PE14_016_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/DE/PresseService/Presse/Pressekonferenzen/2014/BIP2013/Pressebroschuere_BIP2013.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/05/PE14_167_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/09/PE14_306_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/11/PE14_401_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_048_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_61_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/05/PE15_173_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/05/PE15_187_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/08/PE15_293_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/08/PE15_305_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/11/PE15_419_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/11/PE15_430_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/DomesticProduct/DomesticProduct.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/02/PE16_056_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/02/PE16_044_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/05/PE16_162_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/05/PE16_171_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/08/PE16_279_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/08/PE16_291_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/11/PE16_403_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/11/PE16_413_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/02/PE17_050_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/02/PE17_062_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/05/PE17_155_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/05/PE17_169_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/08/PE17_277_811.html

Chart VE-1A provides US GDP in current prices at seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) from 2007 to 2017. There is sharp decline with the recession beginning in IVQ2007 and upward trend during the expansion after IIIQ2009.

Chart VE-1, Germany, GDP, Current Prices, Billion Euro

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-1A provides US GDP in current prices at seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) from 2007 to 2017. There is sharp decline with the recession beginning in IVQ2007 and upward trend during the expansion after IIIQ2009.

Chart VE-1A, US, Gross Domestic Product, Current Prices, Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates, Billions of Dollars, 2008-2017

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis

http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm

Chart VE-2 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Federal Statistics Agency of Germany) provides the index of price-adjusted chain-linked GDP of Germany from 2012 to 2017. Germany was growing rapidly before the global contraction and rebounded with significant strength along a strong upward trend that could be increasing again.

Chart VE-2, Germany, Gross Domestic Product Price Adjusted, Trend and Trend Ends

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-2A provides US GDP in chained 2009 billions of dollars at seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR). US GDP grew at 2.1 percent in the recovery after IIIQ2009 and remains below trend in the weakest cyclical performance in the period after World War II.

Chart VE-2A, US, Real Gross Domestic Product, Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates, Billions of Chained 2009 Dollars, 2013-2017

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm

VF France. Table VF-FR provides growth rates of GDP of France with the estimates of Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE). The long-term rate of GDP growth of France from IVQ1949 to IQ2017 is quite high at 3.1 percent. France’s growth rates were quite high in the four decades of the 1950s, 1960, 1970s and 1980s with an average growth rate of 4.0 percent compounding the average rates in the decades and discounting to one decade. The growth impulse diminished with 2.1 percent in the 1990s and 1.8 percent from 2000 to 2007. The average growth rate from 2000 to 2016, using fourth quarter data, is 1.1 percent because of the sharp impact of the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. Cobet and Wilson (2002) provide estimates of output per hour and unit labor costs in national currency and US dollars for the US, Japan and Germany from 1950 to 2000 (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 137-44). The average yearly rate of productivity change from 1950 to 2000 was 2.9 percent in the US, 6.3 percent for Japan and 4.7 percent for Germany while unit labor costs in USD increased at 2.6 percent in the US, 4.7 percent in Japan and 4.3 percent in Germany. From 1995 to 2000, output per hour increased at the average yearly rate of 4.6 percent in the US, 3.9 percent in Japan and 2.6 percent in Germany while unit labor costs in US fell at minus 0.7 percent in the US, 4.3 percent in Japan and 7.5 percent in Germany. There was increase in productivity growth in the G7 in Japan and France in the second half of the 1990s but significantly lower than the acceleration of 1.3 percentage points per year in the US. Lucas (2011May) compares growth of the G7 economies (US, UK, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Canada) and Spain, finding that catch-up growth with earlier rates for the US and UK stalled in the 1970s.

Table VF-FR, France, Average Growth Rates of GDP Fourth Quarter, 1949-2016

Period

Average ∆%

1949-2017

3.1

2007-2017***

0.6

2007-2016**

0.5

2007-2015*

0.5

2007-2014

0.4

2000-2016

1.1

2000-2015

1.1

2000-2014

1.1

2000-2007

1.8

1990-1999

2.1

1980-1989

2.6

1970-1979

3.7

1960-1969

5.7

1950-1959

4.2

*IVQ2007 to IVQ2015 **IVQ2007 to IVQ2016 ***IVQ2007 to IIQ2017

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/2908692

http://www.bdm.insee.fr/bdm2/choixTheme?request_locale=en&code=10#arbo:montrerbranches=theme312

The IHS Markit Flash France Composite Output Index decreased from 56.6 in Jun to 55.7 in Jul (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4709d10b18c743cbb9a66813b36760fb). Annabel Fiddes, Economist at IHS Markit, finds expanding activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4709d10b18c743cbb9a66813b36760fb). The IHS Markit France Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing with close association with French GDP, decreased from 56.6 in Jun to 55.6 in Jul, indicating slower activity of the private sector (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b3495e134d5b48ab86e15d7e89ee622e). Alex Gill, Economist at IHS Markit that compiles the France Services PMI®, finds continuing growth (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b3495e134d5b48ab86e15d7e89ee622e). The IHS Markit France Services Activity index decreased from 56.9 in Jun to 56.0 in Jul (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b3495e134d5b48ab86e15d7e89ee622e). The IHS Markit France Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index® increased to 54.9 in Jul from 54.8 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/710b64a1e17d49fe84104a05a37293da). Alex Gill, Economist at IHS Markit, finds improving manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/710b64a1e17d49fe84104a05a37293da). Table FR provides the country data table for France.

Table FR, France, Economic Indicators

CPI

Jul month ∆% -0.4
12 months ∆%: 0.7
8/13/17

PPI

Jun month ∆%: -0.4
Jun 12 months ∆%: 1.4

Blog 7/30/17

GDP Growth

IIQ2017/IQ2017 ∆%: 0.5
IIQ2017/IIQ2016 ∆%: 1.8
Blog 3/31/13 5/19/12 6/30/13 9/29/13 11/17/13 12/29/13 2/16/14 4/6/14 5/18/14 6/29/14 8/17/14 9/28/14 11/16/14 12/28/14 2/15/15 3/29/15 5/17/15 6/28/15 8/16/15 9/27/15 11/15/15 12/27/15 1/31/16 2/28/16 3/27/16 5/1/16 6/5/16 06/26/16 8/7/16 9/4/16 9/25/16 10/30/16 12/4/16 1/1/17 2/12/17 3/5/17 3/26/17 5/7/17 6/4/17 6/25/17 8/20/17

Industrial Production

Jun ∆%:
Manufacturing -0.9 Quarter ∆%: 1.3 YOY 2.4

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/12/15

Consumer Spending

Manufactured Goods
May ∆%: 0.8 May 12-Month Manufactured Goods
∆%: 1.5

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/5/15

Employment

Unemployment Rate: IIQ2017 9.2%
Blog 8/20/17

Trade Balance

Jun Exports ∆%: month -2.8 12 months 5.3

Imports ∆%: month -2.0, 12 months 7.9

Earlier Data:

Blog 4/12/15

Confidence Indicators

Historical average 100

Jul Mfg Business Climate 109

Earlier Data:

Blog 3/29/15

Links to blog comments in Table FR: 8/13/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million_40.html

7/30/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/data-dependent-monetary-policy-with_30.html

7/16/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

07/02/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/dollar-devaluation-and-rising-yields.html

6/25/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/united-states-commercial-banks-united.html

6/4/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

5/21/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/dollar-devaluation-world-inflation.html

5/7/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

3/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

3/5/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

2/12/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

1/1/17 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/rules-versus-discretionary-authorities.html

12/4/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/rising-yields-and-dollar-revaluation.html

10/30/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/10/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_30.html

9/25/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/the-economic-outlook-is-inherently.html

9/4/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/interest-rates-and-valuations-of-risk.html

8/7/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/global-competitive-easing-or.html

6/26/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/of-course-considerable-uncertainty.html

6/5/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/financial-turbulence-twenty-four.html

5/1/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/economic-activity-appears-to-have.html

3/27/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/contraction-of-united-states-corporate.html

2/28/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

1/31/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/closely-monitoring-global-economic-and.html

12/27/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/dollar-revaluation-and-decreasing.html

11/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-policy-conundrum-recovery.html

9/27/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/monetary-policy-designed-on-measurable.html

08/16/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/exchange-rate-and-financial-asset.html

6/28/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/international-valuations-of-financial.html

5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

9/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

12/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/collapse-of-united-states-dynamism-of.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

6/30/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/tapering-quantitative-easing-policy-and.html

5/19/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/word-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

Growth of GDP in a quarter relative to the prior quarter for France is in Table VF-1. GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 and changed 0.0 percent in IQ2013, rebounding with growth of 0.7 percent in IIQ2013. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2013. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2014. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2014. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2014 and changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2014. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2015 and changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2015. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2015. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2016. GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IIQ2016. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2016. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2017 and increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2017. The French economy grew 0.1 percent in IVQ2011, increasing 0.1 percent in IQ2012, contracting 0.1 percent in IIQ2012 and growing 0.1 percent in IIIQ2012. In the four quarters of 2012 and the first quarter of 2013, France’s GDP contracted in two quarters and stagnated in one quarter. Growth in the ten quarters of expansion from IIIQ2009 to IVQ2011 accumulated 4.5 percent at the annual equivalent rate of 1.8 percent. Recovery has been much weaker than the cumulative 2.5 percent in the four quarters of 2006. The GDP of France contracted 4.0 percent from the pre-recession peak in IQ2008 at €508,905 million SA-WDA (seasonally adjusted working day adjusted volumes chained at previous year prices) to the trough in IIQ2009 at €488,540 million SA-WDA. The GDP of France increased 5.8 percent from the pre-recession peak in IQ2008 at €508,905 million SA-WDA to €538,243 million SA-WDA in IIQ2017 at the annual equivalent rate of 0.6 percent. French GDP increased 10.2 percent from €488,540 million SA-WDA in IIQ2009 to €538,243 million SA-WDA in IIQ2017 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.3 percent. French GDP in IQ2017 is 10.5 percent below trend at average 1.8 percent from 2000 to 2007. Weak recoveries in advanced economies have prevented full utilization of labor, capital and productive resources.

Table VF-1, France, Quarterly Real GDP Growth, Quarter on Prior Quarter ∆%

IQ

IIQ

IIIQ

IVQ

2017

0.5

0.5

2016

0.6

-0.1

0.2

0.5

2015

0.4

0.0

0.4

0.3

2014

0.1

0.2

0.6

0.0

2013

0.0

0.7

0.0

0.4

2012

0.1

-0.1

0.1

-0.1

2011

1.1

0.0

0.2

0.1

2010

0.4

0.6

0.6

0.6

2009

-1.6

-0.2

0.2

0.6

2008

0.4

-0.5

-0.3

-1.5

2007

0.8

0.7

0.4

0.3

2006

0.8

0.9

0.1

0.7

2005

0.3

0.2

0.5

0.7

2004

0.9

0.6

0.4

0.7

2003

0.2

-0.2

0.7

0.7

2002

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.0

2001

0.5

0.3

0.3

0.0

2000

1.0

0.9

0.7

0.8

1999

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.2

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/2908692

http://www.bdm.insee.fr/bdm2/choixTheme?request_locale=en&code=10#arbo:montrerbranches=theme312

Growth rates of France’s real GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier are in Table VF-2. France has not recovered the rates of growth exceeding 2 percent prior to the global recession. GDP fell 3.8 percent in IQ2009, 3.6 percent in IIQ2009, 3.1 percent in IIIQ2009 and 1.0 percent in IVQ2009. Growth in IVQ2011 relative to IVQ2010 was 1.4 percent and GDP growth declined to 0.4 percent in IQ2012, 0.3 percent in IIQ2012 relative to the same quarter a year earlier, 0.2 percent in IIIQ2012 relative to a year earlier and 0.0 percent in IVQ2012 relative to a year earlier. Growth in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier was 0.0 percent. France’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 0.6 percent in IIIQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.1 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 1.2 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.3 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.2 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.9 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.0 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.2 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.2 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.9 percent in IIIQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.2 percent in IVQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.1 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.8 percent in IIQ2017 relative to a year earlier.

Table VF-2, France, Real GDP Growth Current Quarter Relative to Same Quarter Year Earlier ∆%

IQ

IIQ

IIIQ

IVQ

2017

1.1

1.8

2016

1.2

1.2

0.9

1.2

2015

1.2

0.9

0.8

1.0

2014

1.2

0.7

1.3

0.8

2013

0.0

0.8

0.6

1.1

2012

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.0

2011

2.9

2.3

1.9

1.4

2010

1.1

1.9

2.3

2.3

2009

-3.8

-3.6

-3.1

-1.0

2008

1.8

0.6

-0.1

-1.9

2007

2.4

2.3

2.6

2.1

2006

2.2

2.9

2.5

2.5

2005

1.9

1.5

1.6

1.6

2004

2.2

3.0

2.6

2.5

2003

0.9

0.4

0.7

1.5

2002

0.9

1.1

1.1

1.1

2001

2.9

2.2

1.8

1.0

2000

4.4

4.4

3.9

3.4

1999

2.8

3.0

3.4

4.0

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/2908692

http://www.bdm.insee.fr/bdm2/choixTheme?request_locale=en&code=10#arbo:montrerbranches=theme312

Chart VF-1 shows France’s quarterly real GDP from IQ1949 to IQ2017. France’s economy has grown dynamically over decades. Recovery from the global recession in 2008-2009 slowed with marginal increase.

Chart VF-1, France, Quarterly Real GDP, Seasonally and Working Day Adjusted, IQ1949-IQ2017

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/2908692

http://www.bdm.insee.fr/bdm2/choixTheme?request_locale=en&code=10#arbo:montrerbranches=theme312

Percentage changes and contributions of segments of GDP in France are in Table VF-3. Internal demand added 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2016 and contributed 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2016. Internal demand added 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017. Internal demand added 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2016 and subtracted 0.6 percentage points in IQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points in IIQ2017.

Table VF-3, France, Contributions to GDP Growth, Calendar and Seasonally Adjusted, %

∆% from Prior Period

IIIQ 2016

IVQ 2016

IQ
2017

IIQ
2017

2016

2017

GDP

0.2

0.5

0.5

0.5

1.1

1.4

Imports

2.8

0.6

1.2

0.2

4.2

3.0

Household Consump.

0.0

0.7

0.1

0.3

2.1

0.9

Govt.
Consump.

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.4

1.2

1.1

GFCF

0.2

0.6

1.4

0.5

2.7

2.4

General Government

-0.6

-0.4

-0.7

-0.1

-0.1

-1.3

Exports

0.9

1.1

-0.7

3.1

1.9

2.9

% Point
Contribs.

Internal Demand ex Inventory Changes

0.1

0.6

0.4

0.4

2.0

1.2

Inventory Changes

0.7

-0.2

0.7

-0.6

-0.1

0.3

Net Foreign Trade

-0.6

0.1

-0.6

0.8

-0.8

-0.1

Notes: Consump.: Consumption; Gvt.: Government; GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation; Contribus.: Contributions; OVHG: “annual growth rate carried over at the mid-year point.”

Source:  Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/2908692

http://www.bdm.insee.fr/bdm2/choixTheme?request_locale=en&code=10#arbo:montrerbranches=theme312

Chart VF-2 of France’s Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques provides percentage point contributions to GDP growth. The economy was driven in IQ2013 by consumption with net trade and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) deducting from growth.  Final consumption drove the economy in IIQ2013 together with contribution by net trade and capital formation. Gross fixed capital formation and net trade constrained the economy in IIIQ2013. Inventory changed deducted from growth in IVQ2013 with contributions by consumption and net trade. Inventory change contributed to growth in IQ2014 with deductions by consumption, GFCF and net foreign trade. Consumption contributed to growth in IIQ2014 with deductions by GFCF and net trade. Consumption and inventory change drove the economy in IIIQ2014 with deduction by net trade. Consumption and net trade drove the economy in IVQ2014 with deductions by GFCF and inventory change. Consumption, GFCF and inventory change drove the economy in IQ2015 with net trade deducting from growth. Net trade and consumption drove the economy in IIQ2015 with inventory change and GFCF deducting from growth. Consumption and inventory change drove the economy in IIIQ2015 with minor contribution by GFCF and significant deduction by net trade. Inventory change, consumption and GFCF drove the economy in IVQ2015 with deduction by net trade. Consumption and GFCF drove the economy in IQ2016 with deductions by inventory change and net trade. Consumption and net trade drove the economy in IIQ2016 with deduction by inventory change. Inventory change, consumption and GFCF drove the economy in IIIQ2016 with deduction by net trade. Consumption, GFCF and net trade drove the economy in IVQ2016 with deduction by inventory change. Inventory change, GFCF and consumption drove the economy in IQ2017 with deduction by net trade. GFCF, consumption and net trade drove the economy in IIQ2017 with deduction by inventory change.

Chart VF-2, France, Percentage Point Contributions to GDP Growth

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/2908692

http://www.bdm.insee.fr/bdm2/choixTheme?request_locale=en&code=10#arbo:montrerbranches=theme312

The number of unemployed in France rose from 1.980 million in IVQ2007, for a rate of unemployment of 7.1 percent, to 2.651 million in IIQ2017, for a rate of unemployment of 9.2 percent, as shown in Table VF-1A. At the same time, the rate of employment increased from 64.7 percent in IVQ2007 to 65.3 percent in IIQ2017.

Table VF-1A, France, Metropolitan France, Employment Rate, Unemployed and Unemployment Rate, Millions and %

Unemployed
Millions

Unemployed Percent

Employment Rate

IIQ2017

2,651

9.2

65.3

IQ2017

2,671

9.3

64.8

IVQ2016

2,790

9.7

64.7

IIIQ2016

2,798

9.7

64.6

IIQ2016

2,788

9.7

64.6

IQ2016

2.852

9.9

64.6

IVQ2015

2.841

9.9

64.4

IIIQ2015

2.910

10.1

64.3

IIQ2015

2.917

10.2

64.2

IQ2015

2.862

10.0

64.1

IVQ2014

2.906

10.1

64.3

IIIQ2014

2.855

10.0

64.1

IIQ2014

2.822

9.9

64.2

IQ2014

2.799

9.8

64.3

IVQ2013

2.790

9.7

64.1

IIIQ2013

2.837

9.9

64.1

IIQ2013

2.889

10.1

64.0

IQ2013

2.839

9.9

63.9

IVQ2012

2.784

9.7

64.2

IIIQ2012

2.674

9.4

64.0

IIQ2012

2.664

9.4

64.0

IQ2012

2.585

9.1

63.9

IVQ2011

2.539

9.0

63.9

IIIQ2011

2.491

8.8

63.8

IIQ2011

2.456

8.7

63.9

IQ2011

2.473

8.8

63.9

IVQ2010

2.478

8.8

63.9

IIIQ2010

2.492

8.8

64.0

IIQ2010

2.509

8.9

64.0

IQ2010

2.538

9.0

64.0

IVQ2009

2.571

9.1

63.8

IIIQ2009

2.472

8.8

63.9

IIQ2009

2.488

8.8

64.3

IQ2009

2.307

8.2

64.4

IVQ2008

2.068

7.4

64.9

IIIQ2008

1.969

7.1

64.8

IIQ2008

1.939

7.0

64.9

IQ2008

1.899

6.8

65.0

IV2007

1.980

7.1

64.7

IIIQ2007

2.118

7.6

64.4

IIQ2007

2.159

7.8

64.2

IQ2007

2.236

8.1

64.0

IVQ2006

2.202

8.0

64.0

IVQ2005

2.372

8.7

63.6

IVQ2004

2.316

8.5

63.8

IVQ2003

2.262

8.4

63.9

IVQ2002

2.045

7.6

IVQ2001

1.974

7.5

IVQ2000

2.017

7.7

IVQ1999

2.363

9.1

IVQ1995

2.441

9.6

IVQ1990

1.873

7.6

IVQ1985

2.086

8.5

IVQ1980

1.272

5.3

IVQ1975

0.812

3.6

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/2966620

Chart VF-1A of the Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques of France provides an excellent view of the unemployment rate in France. The rate of unemployment rose from 1975 to 1987 and then fell sharply. The rate of unemployment increased in the recession of the early 1990s followed by sharp decline. The rate of unemployment increased in the recession of the early 2000s and fell again during the expansion. The rate of unemployment rose sharply during the global recession with initial recovery followed by another increase, stability and new oscillating decrease.

Chart VF-1A, Metropolitan France, ILO Definition Unemployment Rate, IQ1975-IIQ2016

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/2966620

Chart VF-2A of the Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques of France provides an excellent view of the unemployment rate in France. The rate of unemployment rose from 2003 to 2006 and then fell sharply in 2007. The global recession caused sharp increase in the French rate of unemployment that has declined from the peak, stabilized at a high level and is climbing/stabilizing and declining again with oscillations.

Chart VF-2A, France, Unemployment Rate International Labor Organization Criterion, Seasonally Adjusted Average over Quarter, Percent

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/2966620

VG Italy. Table VG-IT provides revised percentage changes of GDP in Italy of quarter on prior quarter and quarter on same quarter a year earlier. In IIQ2017, the GDP of Italy increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, the GDP of Italy increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2016, GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2015, GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy changed 0.0 percent in IQ2014 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2013 and fell 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2013 and fell 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.1 in IIQ2013 and fell 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 1.1 percent in IQ2013 and declined 2.9 percent relative to IQ2012. GDP had been growing during six consecutive quarters but at very low rates from IQ2010 to IIQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell in seven consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at increasingly higher rates of contraction from 0.5 percent in IIIQ2011 to 1.0 percent in IVQ2011, 0.9 percent in IQ2012, 0.8 percent in IIQ2012 and 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012. The pace of decline accelerated to minus 0.6 percent in IVQ2012 and minus 1.1 percent in IQ2013. GDP contracted cumulatively 5.3 percent in seven consecutive quarterly contractions from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at the annual equivalent rate of minus 3.1 percent. The yearly rate has fallen from 2.2 percent in IVQ2010 to minus 2.8 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.9 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.0 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.3 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.7 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.0 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.1 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.0 percent in IIIQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.1 percent in IVQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.2 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.5 percent in IIQ2017 relative to a year earlier. Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of Italy in IQ2017 of €395,783 million (http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/200568) is lower by 6.8 percent relative to €424,823.8 million in IQ2008. Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of Italy increased from €367,664.4 million in IQ1998 to €424,823.8 million in IQ2008 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.5 percent. The fiscal adjustment of Italy is significantly more difficult with the economy not growing especially on the prospects of increasing government revenue. The strategy is for reforms to improve productivity, facilitating future fiscal consolidation.

Table VG-IT, Italy, GDP ∆%

Quarter ∆% Relative to Preceding Quarter

Quarter ∆% Relative to Same Quarter Year Earlier

IIQ2017

0.4

1.5

IQ2017

0.4

1.2

IVQ2016

0.4

1.1

IIIQ2016

0.3

1.0

IIQ2016

0.1

0.8

IQ2016

0.3

1.1

IVQ2015

0.2

1.0

IIIQ2015

0.1

0.7

IIQ2015

0.4

0.7

IQ2015

0.3

0.3

IVQ2014

0.0

0.1

IIIQ2014

0.1

0.1

IIQ2014

0.0

0.2

IQ2014

0.0

0.4

IVQ2013

0.0

-0.7

IIIQ2013

0.3

-1.3

IIQ2013

0.1

-2.0

IQ2013

-1.1

-2.9

IVQ2012

-0.6

-2.8

IIIQ2012

-0.5

-3.2

IIQ2012

-0.8

-3.2

IQ2012

-0.9

-2.3

IVQ2011

-1.0

-1.1

IIIQ2011

-0.5

0.4

IIQ2011

0.1

1.5

IQ2011

0.2

2.1

IVQ2010

0.5

2.2

IIIQ2010

0.6

1.9

IIQ2010

0.8

1.9

IQ2010

0.3

0.5

IVQ2009

0.3

-2.7

IIIQ2009

0.5

-5.2

IIQ2009

-0.6

-6.9

IQ2009

-2.9

-7.1

IVQ2008

-2.3

-3.5

IIIQ2008

-1.3

-1.3

IIQ2008

-0.8

-0.1

IQ2008

0.8

0.7

IV2007

-0.1

0.1

IIIQ2007

-0.1

1.2

IIQ2007

0.0

1.7

IQ2007

0.2

2.3

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/203116

The IHS Markit Italy Business Activity Index increased from 53.6 in Jun to 56.3 in Jul (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4f7f2216aded46a48acb1f5abfb5590a). Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit that compiles the Italy Services PMI®, finds positive conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4f7f2216aded46a48acb1f5abfb5590a). The IHS Markit Italy Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®), decreased from 55.2 in Jun to 55.1 in Jul (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/2057a90657894f2d94534e6c15465582). New export orders continued to increase. Phil Smith, Principal Economist at HIS Markit that compiles the Italian Manufacturing PMI®, finds consistent manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/2057a90657894f2d94534e6c15465582). Table IT provides the country data table for Italy.

Table IT, Italy, Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index

Jul month ∆% 0.1
12 months ∆%: 1.1
Blog 8/13/17

Producer Price Index

Jun month ∆%: 0.4 Jun 12-month ∆%: 3.1

Blog 8/6/17

GDP Growth

IQ2017/IQ2017 SA ∆%: 0.5
IIQ2017/IIQ2016 NSA ∆%: 1.5
Blog 3/17/13 6/16/13 8/11/13 9/15/13 11/17/13 12/15/13 2/16/14 3/16/14 5/18/14 6/15/14 8/10/14 8/31/14 10/19/14 11/16/14 12/7/14 2/15/15 3/15/15 5/17/15 5/31/15 8/16/15 9/6/15 11/15/15 12/6/15 2/14/16 3/6/16 5/15/16 6/5/16 8/14/16 9/11/16 11/20/16 12/4/16 02/26/17 3/12/17 5/21/17 6/4/17 8/20/17

Labor Report

Jun 2017

Participation rate 65.1%

Employment ratio 57.8%

Unemployment rate 11.1%

Youth Unemployment 35.4%

Blog 8/6/17

Industrial Production

Jun month ∆%: 1.1
12 months CA ∆%: 5.3

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/19/15

Retail Sales

Jun month ∆%: 0.6

Jun 12-month ∆%: 1.5

Earlier Data:

Blog 4/26/15

Business Confidence

Mfg Jul 107.7, Mar 107.0

Construction Jul 131.1, Mar 123.3

Earlier Data:

Blog 4/5/15

Trade Balance

Balance Jun SA €4077 million
Exports Jun month SA ∆%: -1.0; Imports month ∆%: -2.9
Exports 12 months Jun NSA ∆%: 8.2 Imports 12 months NSA ∆%: 9.9

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/19/15

Links to blog comments in Table IT: 8/13/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million_40.html

8/6/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/data-dependent-monetary-policy-with.html

7/16/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

07/02/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/dollar-devaluation-and-rising-yields.html

6/18/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/fomc-interest-rate-increase-planned.html

6/4/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/twenty-two-million-unemployed-or.html

5/21/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/dollar-devaluation-world-inflation.html

3/12/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/increasing-interest-rates-twenty-four.html

2/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

12/4/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/rising-yields-and-dollar-revaluation.html

11/20/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/interest-rate-increase-could-well.html

9/11/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/interest-rate-uncertainty-and-valuation.html

8/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

6/5/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/financial-turbulence-twenty-four.html

5/15/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

3/6/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/twenty-five-million-unemployed-or.html

2/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/subdued-foreign-growth-and-dollar.html

12/6/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/liftoff-of-fed-funds-rate-followed-by.html

11/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-policy-conundrum-recovery.html

9/6/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what.html

08/16/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/exchange-rate-and-financial-asset.html

5/31/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/dollar-revaluation-squeezing-corporate.html

5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

12/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/financial-risks-twenty-six-million.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

10/19/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/imf-view-squeeze-of-economic-activity.html

8/31/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitical-and-financial-risks.html

8/10/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/volatility-of-valuations-of-risk_10.html

6/15/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financialgeopolitical-risks-recovery.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

8/11/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/recovery-without-hiring-loss-of-full.html

6/16/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/recovery-without-hiring-seven-million.html

3/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

Table VG-1 provides revised percentage changes of GDP in Italy of quarter on prior quarter and quarter on same quarter a year earlier. In IIQ2017, the GDP of Italy increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, the GDP of Italy increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2016, GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2015, GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy changed 0.0 percent in IQ2014 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2013 and fell 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2013 and fell 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.1 in IIQ2013 and fell 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 1.1 percent in IQ2013 and declined 2.9 percent relative to IQ2012. GDP had been growing during six consecutive quarters but at very low rates from IQ2010 to IIQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell in seven consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at increasingly higher rates of contraction from 0.5 percent in IIIQ2011 to 1.0 percent in IVQ2011, 0.9 percent in IQ2012, 0.8 percent in IIQ2012 and 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012. The pace of decline accelerated to minus 0.6 percent in IVQ2012 and minus 1.1 percent in IQ2013. GDP contracted cumulatively 5.3 percent in seven consecutive quarterly contractions from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at the annual equivalent rate of minus 3.1 percent. The yearly rate has fallen from 2.2 percent in IVQ2010 to minus 2.8 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.9 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.0 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.3 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.7 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.0 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.1 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.0 percent in IIIQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.1 percent in IVQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.2 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.5 percent in IIQ2017 relative to a year earlier. Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of Italy in IQ2017 of €395,783 million (http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/200568) is lower by 6.8 percent relative to €424,823.8 million in IQ2008. Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of Italy increased from €367,664.4 million in IQ1998 to €424,823.8 million in IQ2008 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.5 percent. The fiscal adjustment of Italy is significantly more difficult with the economy not growing especially on the prospects of increasing government revenue. The strategy is for reforms to improve productivity, facilitating future fiscal consolidation.

Table VG-1, Italy, GDP ∆%

Quarter ∆% Relative to Preceding Quarter

Quarter ∆% Relative to Same Quarter Year Earlier

IIQ2017

0.4

1.5

IQ2017

0.4

1.2

IVQ2016

0.4

1.1

IIIQ2016

0.3

1.0

IIQ2016

0.1

0.8

IQ2016

0.3

1.1

IVQ2015

0.2

1.0

IIIQ2015

0.1

0.7

IIQ2015

0.4

0.7

IQ2015

0.3

0.3

IVQ2014

0.0

0.1

IIIQ2014

0.1

0.1

IIQ2014

0.0

0.2

IQ2014

0.0

0.4

IVQ2013

0.0

-0.7

IIIQ2013

0.3

-1.3

IIQ2013

0.1

-2.0

IQ2013

-1.1

-2.9

IVQ2012

-0.6

-2.8

IIIQ2012

-0.5

-3.2

IIQ2012

-0.8

-3.2

IQ2012

-0.9

-2.3

IVQ2011

-1.0

-1.1

IIIQ2011

-0.5

0.4

IIQ2011

0.1

1.5

IQ2011

0.2

2.1

IVQ2010

0.5

2.2

IIIQ2010

0.6

1.9

IIQ2010

0.8

1.9

IQ2010

0.3

0.5

IVQ2009

0.3

-2.7

IIIQ2009

0.5

-5.2

IIQ2009

-0.6

-6.9

IQ2009

-2.9

-7.1

IVQ2008

-2.3

-3.5

IIIQ2008

-1.3

-1.3

IIQ2008

-0.8

-0.1

IQ2008

0.8

0.7

IV2007

-0.1

0.1

IIIQ2007

-0.1

1.2

IIQ2007

0.0

1.7

IQ2007

0.2

2.3

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/203116

Chart VG-1 of the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) provides growth of GDP of Italy at market prices. The year on year rate of growth pulled strongly out of the contraction. There is evident trend of deceleration with increasingly sharper contraction and mild moderation in 2013 and 2014. GDP increased in IQ2015, IIQ2015, IIIQ2015 and IVQ2015. GDP increased in IQ2016 and stabilized in IIQ2016, increasing in IIIQ2016 and IVQ2016. Growth continued in IQ2017 and IIQ2017.

Chart VG-1, Italy, GDP at Market Prices, ∆% on Same Quarter Year Earlier

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/

VH United Kingdom. Annual data in Table VH-UK show the strong impact of the global recession in the UK with decline of GDP of 4.3 percent in 2009 after dropping 0.6 percent in 2008. Recovery of 1.9 percent in 2010 is relatively low in comparison with annual growth rates in 2007 and earlier years. Growth was only 1.5 percent in 2011 and 1.3 percent in 2012. Growth increased to 1.9 percent in 2013 and 3.1 percent in 2014. Growth fell to 2.2 percent in 2015 and 1.8 percent in 2016.  The bottom part of Table VH-UK provides average growth rates of UK GDP since 1948. The UK economy grew at 2.5 percent per year on average between 1948 and 2016, which is relatively high for an advanced economy. The growth rate of GDP between 2000 and 2007 is higher at 2.7 percent. Growth in the current cyclical expansion from 2010 to 2016 has been only at 2.0 percent as advanced economies struggle with weak internal demand and world trade. GDP in 2016 is higher by 8.9 percent relative to 2007 while it would have been 27.1 higher at trend of 2.7 percent as from 2000 to 2007.

Table VH-UK, UK, Gross Domestic Product, ∆%

∆% on Prior Year

1998

3.2

1999

3.3

2000

3.7

2001

2.7

2002

2.4

2003

3.5

2004

2.5

2005

3.0

2006

2.5

2007

2.6

2008

-0.6

2009

-4.3

2010

1.9

2011

1.5

2012

1.3

2013

1.9

2014

3.1

2015

2.2

2016

1.8

Average Growth Rates ∆% per Year

1948-2016

2.5

1950-1959

3.1

1960-1969

3.1

1970-1979

2.6

1980-1989

3.2

1990-1999

2.2

2000-2007

2.7

2007-2013*

1.6

2007-2014*

4.7

2007-2015

0.8

2007-2016

1.0

2000-2016

1.7

*Absolute change from 2007 to 2013 and 2007 to 2014

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/grossdomesticproductpreliminaryestimate/aprtojune2017

The HIS Markit Flash UK PMI® Composite Output Index fell from 52.4 in Jun to 47.7 in Jul, which is the lowest in 87 months (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/b68c3686a48c40198505b81e4e55cd81). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds the index suggests pace of contraction of GDP at 0.4 percent in IIIQ2016 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/b68c3686a48c40198505b81e4e55cd81). The Business Activity Index of the IHS Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI® increased from 53.4 in Jun to 53.8 in Jul (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/6bb8094b4e024f08b0b473a06e9f9a99). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, finds the combined indices consistent with the UK economy growing close to 0.3 percent in IIIQ2017 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/6bb8094b4e024f08b0b473a06e9f9a99). The IHS Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®) increased to 55.1 in Jul from 54.2 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/cd005c55d65b44fb91f3a3f8d14fcbdc). New export orders increased. Rob Dobson, Director at IHS Markit that compiles the Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI®, finds stronger manufacturing with currency depreciation (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/cd005c55d65b44fb91f3a3f8d14fcbdc). Table UK provides the economic indicators for the United Kingdom.

Table UK, UK Economic Indicators

CPI

Jun month ∆%: -0.1
Jun 12-month ∆%: 2.6
Blog 8/20/17

Output/Input Prices

Output Prices: Jul 12-month NSA ∆%: 3.2; excluding food, petroleum ∆%: 2.4
Input Prices: Jul 12-month NSA
∆%: 6.5
Excluding ∆%: 5.5
Blog 8/20/17

GDP Growth

IIQ2017 prior quarter ∆% 0.3; year earlier same quarter ∆%: 1.7
Blog 3/31/13 4/28/13 5/26/13 7/28/13 8/25/13 9/29/13 10/27/13 12/1/13 12/22/13 2/2/14 3/2/14 4/6/14 5/4/14 5/25/14 6/29/14 7/27/14 8/17/14 10/5/14 10/26/14 11/30/14 12/28/14 2/1/15 3/1/15 4/5/15 5/3/15 5/31/15 7/5/15 8/2/15 9/6/15 10/4/15 11/1/15 11/29/15 12/27/15 1/31/16 2/28/16 4/3/16 5/1/16 5/29/16 7/3/16 7/31/16 9/4/16 10/9/16 10/30/16 11/27/16 1/1/17 2/05/17 2/26/17 4/9/17 5/7/2017 5/28/17 7/9/17 7/30/17

Industrial Production

May 2017/May 2016 ∆%: Production Industries -0.1; Manufacturing -0.8

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/12/15

Retail Sales

Jul month ∆%: 0.3
Jul 12-month ∆%: 1.3

Earlier Data:
Blog 4/26/15

Labor Market

Mar-May 2017 Unemployment Rate: 4.5%
Blog 7/16/17 LMGDP 5/17/15

GDP and the Labor Market

IQ2015 Employment 104.8

IQ2008 =100

GDP IQ15=104.0 IQ2008=100

Blog 5/17/14

Trade Balance

Balance SA Jun -₤4564 million
Exports Jun ∆%: -0.7; Apr-Jun ∆%: 10.0
Imports Jun ∆%: 3.3 Apr-Jun ∆%: 10.2

EARLIER DATA:
Blog 4/12/15

Links to blog comments in Table UK: 7/30/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/data-dependent-monetary-policy-with_30.html

7/23/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/dollar-devaluation-and-valuation-of.html

7/9/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/rising-yields-twenty-two-million.html

6/18/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/fomc-interest-rate-increase-planned.html

5/28/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

5/21/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/dollar-devaluation-world-inflation.html

2/26/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

2/5/17 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/02/twenty-six-million-unemployed-or.html

1/1/17 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/rules-versus-discretionary-authorities.html

11/27/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/dollar-revaluation-rising-yields-and.html

10/30/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/10/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_30.html

10/9/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/10/twenty-four-million-unemployed-or.html

9/4/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/interest-rates-and-valuations-of-risk.html

7/31/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/business-fixed-investment-has-been-soft.html

7/3/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/financial-asset-values-rebound-from.html

5/29/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/appropriate-for-fed-to-increase.html

5/1/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/economic-activity-appears-to-have.html

4/3/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/04/proceeding-cautiously-in-monetary.html

2/28/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

1/31/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/closely-monitoring-global-economic-and.html

12/27/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/dollar-revaluation-and-decreasing.html

11/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/dollar-revaluation-constraining.html

11/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-increase-considered.html

10/4/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/10/labor-market-uncertainty-and-interest.html

9/6/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what.html

08/02/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/turbulence-of-valuations-of-financial.html

7/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/07/turbulence-of-financial-asset.html

5/31/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/dollar-revaluation-squeezing-corporate.html

5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html

5/3/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/dollar-devaluation-and-carry-trade.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html

12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

10/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/financial-oscillations-world-inflation.html

10/5/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/world-financial-turbulence-twenty-seven.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

7/27/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

5/4/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html

4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html

3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html

2/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

12/22/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html

12/1/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/exit-risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html

10/27/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/twenty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html

9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html

7/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html

5/26/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

4/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_28.html

03/31/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

Table VH-L3 provides indicators of the labor force survey of the UK for Apr-Jun 2017 and earlier quarters. There has been improvement in UK labor markets with the rate of unemployment decreasing from 4.9 percent in Apr-Jun 2016 to 4.4 percent in Apr-Jun 2017.

Table VH-L3, UK, Labor Force Survey Indicators, Thousands, SA

LFHP

EMP

PART

UNE

RATE

Apr-Jun 2015

40,839

31,118

73.4

1,848

5.6

Apr-Jun 2016

41,003

31,735

74.4

1,640

4.9

Jul-Sep 2016

41,038

31,779

74.4

1,606

4.8

Oct-Dec 2016

41,071

31,826

74.6

1,594

4.8

Jan-Mar 2017

41,103

31,947

74.8

1,541

4.6

Apr-Jun 2017

41,136

32,073

75.1

1,484

4.4

∆ on Quarter

32

125

0.3

-57

-0.2

∆%

0.1

0.4

-3.7

∆ on Year

132

338

0.7

-157

-0.5

∆%

0.3

1.1

-9.5

Notes: LFHP: Labor Force Household Population Ages 16 to 64 in thousands; EMP: Employed Ages 16 and over in thousands; PART: Employment as % of Population Ages 16 to 64; UNE: Unemployed Ages 16 and over in thousands; Rate: Number Unemployed Ages 16 and over as % of Employed plus Unemployed

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/august2017

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017.

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