Dollar Revaluation, Recovery without Hiring, Ten Million Fewer Full-time Jobs, Collapse of United States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation, Youth and Middle-Age Unemployment, United States Import and Export Prices, World Cyclical Slow Growth and Global Recession Risk: Part V

 

Dollar Revaluation, Recovery without Hiring, Ten Million Fewer Full-time Jobs, Collapse of United States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation, Youth and Middle-Age Unemployment, United States Import and Export Prices, World Cyclical Slow Growth and Global Recession Risk

Carlos M. Pelaez

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015

I Recovery without Hiring

IA1 Hiring Collapse

IA2 Labor Underutilization

ICA3 Ten Million Fewer Full-time Jobs

IA4 Theory and Reality of Cyclical Slow Growth Not Secular Stagnation: Youth and Middle-Age Unemployment

IB Collapse of United Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation

II Import and Export Prices

III World Financial Turbulence

IIIA Financial Risks

IIIE Appendix Euro Zone Survival Risk

IIIF Appendix on Sovereign Bond Valuation

IV Global Inflation

V World Economic Slowdown

VA United States

VB Japan

VC China

VD Euro Area

VE Germany

VF France

VG Italy

VH United Kingdom

VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets

VII Economic Indicators

VIII Interest Rates

IX Conclusion

References

Appendixes

Appendix I The Great Inflation

IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies

IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact

IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort

IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis

IIIGA Monetary Policy with Deficit Financing of Economic Growth

IIIGB Adjustment during the Debt Crisis of the 1980s

V World Economic Slowdown. Table V-1 is constructed with the database of the IMF (http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28) to show GDP in dollars in 2012 and the growth rate of real GDP of the world and selected regional countries from 2013 to 2016. The data illustrate the concept often repeated of “two-speed recovery” of the world economy from the recession of 2007 to 2009. The IMF has changed its forecast of the world economy to 3.3 percent in 2013 but accelerating to 3.3 percent in 2014, 3.8 percent in 2015 and 4.0 percent in 2016. Slow-speed recovery occurs in the “major advanced economies” of the G7 that account for $34,523 billion of world output of $72,688 billion, or 47.5 percent, but are projected to grow at much lower rates than world output, 1.9 percent on average from 2013 to 2016 in contrast with 3.6 percent for the world as a whole. While the world would grow 15.2 percent in the four years from 2013 to 2016, the G7 as a whole would grow 8.5 percent. The difference in dollars of 2012 is rather high: growing by 15.2 percent would add around $11.0 trillion of output to the world economy, or roughly, two times the output of the economy of Japan of $5,938 billion but growing by 8.0 percent would add $5.8 trillion of output to the world, or about the output of Japan in 2012. The “two speed” concept is in reference to the growth of the 150 countries labeled as emerging and developing economies (EMDE) with joint output in 2012 of $27,512 billion, or 37.8 percent of world output. The EMDEs would grow cumulatively 20.7 percent or at the average yearly rate of 4.8 percent, contributing $5.7 trillion from 2013 to 2016 or the equivalent of somewhat less than the GDP of $8,387 billion of China in 2012. The final four countries in Table V-1 often referred as BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China), are large, rapidly growing emerging economies. Their combined output in 2012 adds to $14,511 billion, or 19.9 percent of world output, which is equivalent to 42.0 percent of the combined output of the major advanced economies of the G7.

Table V-1, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Real GDP Growth

	GDP USD 2012	Real GDP ∆% 2013	Real GDP ∆% 2014	Real GDP ∆% 2015	Real GDP ∆% 2016
World	72,688	3.3	3.3	3.8	4.0
G7	34,523	1.5	1.7	2.3	2.3
Canada	1,709	2.0	2.3	2.4	2.4
France	2,688	0.3	0.4	1.0	1.6
DE	3,428	0.5	1.4	1.5	1.8
Italy	2,014	-1.9	-0.2	0.9	1.3
Japan	5,938	1.5	0.9	0.8	0.8
UK	2,471	1.7	3.2	2.7	2.4
US	16,163	2.2	2.2	3.1	3.0
Euro Area	12,220	-0.4	0.8	1.3	1.7
DE	3,428	0.5	1.4	1.5	1.8
France	2,688	0.3	0.4	1.0	1.6
Italy	2,014	-1.9	-0.2	0.9	1.3
POT	212	-1.4	1.0	1.5	1.7
Ireland	211	-0.3	1.7	2.5	2.5
Greece	249	-3.9	0.6	2.9	3.7
Spain	1,323	-1.2	1.3	1.7	1.8
EMDE	27,512	4.7	4.4	5.0	5.2
Brazil	2,248	2.5	0.3	1.4	2.2
Russia	2,017	1.3	0.2	0.5	1.5
India	1,859	5.0	5.6	6.4	6.5
China	8,387	7.7	7.4	7.1	6.8

Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries); POT: Portugal

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook databank http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28

Continuing high rates of unemployment in advanced economies constitute another characteristic of the database of the WEO (http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28). Table V-2 is constructed with the WEO database to provide rates of unemployment from 2012 to 2016 for major countries and regions. In fact, unemployment rates for 2013 in Table I-2 are high for all countries: unusually high for countries with high rates most of the time and unusually high for countries with low rates most of the time. The rates of unemployment are particularly high in 2013 for the countries with sovereign debt difficulties in Europe: 16.2 percent for Portugal (POT), 13.0 percent for Ireland, 27.3 percent for Greece, 26.1 percent for Spain and 12.2 percent for Italy, which is lower but still high. The G7 rate of unemployment is 7.1 percent. Unemployment rates are not likely to decrease substantially if slow growth persists in advanced economies.

Table V-2, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Unemployment Rate as Percent of Labor Force

	% Labor Force 2012	% Labor Force 2013	% Labor Force 2014	% Labor Force 2015	% Labor Force 2016
World	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
G7	7.4	7.1	6.5	6.3	6.1
Canada	7.3	7.1	7.0	6.9	6.8
France	9.8	10.3	10.0	10.0	9.9
DE	5.5	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.3
Italy	10.7	12.2	12.6	12.0	11.3
Japan	4.3	4.0	3.7	3.8	3.8
UK	8.0	7.6	6.3	5.8	5.5
US	8.1	7.4	6.3	5.9	5.8
Euro Area	11.3	11.9	11.6	11.2	10.7
DE	5.5	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.3
France	9.8	10.3	10.0	10.0	9.9
Italy	10.7	12.2	12.6	12.0	11.3
POT	15.5	16.2	14.2	13.5	13.0
Ireland	14.7	13.0	11.2	10.5	10.1
Greece	24.2	27.3	25.8	23.8	20.9
Spain	24.8	26.1	24.6	23.5	22.4
EMDE	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
Brazil	5.5	5.4	5.5	6.1	5.9
Russia	5.5	5.5	5.6	6.5	6.0
India	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
China	4.1	4.1	4.1	4.1	4.1

Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries)

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook databank http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28

Table V-3 provides the latest available estimates of GDP for the regions and countries followed in this blog from IQ2012 to IIIQ2014 available now for all countries. There are preliminary estimates for most countries for IVQ2014. Growth is weak throughout most of the world.

• Japan. The GDP of Japan increased 1.1 percent in IQ2012, 4.3 percent at SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) and 3.5 percent relative to a year earlier but part of the jump could be the low level a year earlier because of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan is experiencing difficulties with the overvalued yen because of worldwide capital flight originating in zero interest rates with risk aversion in an environment of softer growth of world trade. Japan’s GDP fell 0.4 percent in IIQ2012 at the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of minus 1.4 percent, which is much lower than 4.3 percent in IQ2012. Growth of 3.5 percent in IIQ2012 in Japan relative to IIQ2011 has effects of the low level of output because of Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012 at the SAAR of minus 2.2 percent and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IVQ2012 at the SAAR of minus 0.6 percent and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan grew 1.4 percent in IQ2013 at the SAAR of 5.6 percent and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2013 at the SAAR of 3.3 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP grew 0.4 percent in IIIQ2013 at the SAAR of 1.4 percent and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Japan’s GDP decreased 0.3 percent at the SAAR of minus 1.2 percent, increasing 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 1.3 percent in IQ2014 at the SAAR of 5.1 percent and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Japan’s GDP fell 1.6 percent at the SAAR of minus 6.4 percent and fell 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.7 percent in IIIQ2014 at the SAAR of minus 2.6 percent and fell 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, Japan’s GDP grew 0.4 percent, at the SAAR of 1.5 percent, decreasing 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier.
• China. China’s GDP grew 1.4 percent in IQ2012, annualizing to 5.7 percent, and 8.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 2.1 percent in IIQ2012, which annualizes to 8.7 percent and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 2.0 percent in IIIQ2012, which annualizes at 8.2 percent and 7.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, China grew at 1.9 percent, which annualizes at 7.8 percent, and 7.9 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, China grew at 1.7 percent, which annualizes at 7.0 percent and 7.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, China grew at 1.8 percent, which annualizes at 7.4 percent and 7.5 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 2.3 percent in IIIQ2013, which annualizes at 9.5 percent and 7.9 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 1.8 percent in IVQ2013, which annualized to 7.4 percent and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP grew 1.6 percent in IQ2014, which annualizes to 6.6 percent, and 7.4 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP grew 1.9 percent in IIQ2014, which annualizes at 7.8 percent, and 7.5 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP grew 1.9 percent in IIIQ2014, which is equivalent to 7.8 percent in a year, and 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew 1.5 percent in IVQ2014, which annualizes at 6.1 percent, and 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier. There is decennial change in leadership in China (http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/special/18cpcnc/index.htm). Growth rates of GDP of China in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier have been declining from 2011 to 2014.
• Euro Area. GDP fell 0.1 percent in the euro area in IQ2012 and decreased 0.4 in IQ2012 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP contracted 0.3 percent IIQ2012 and fell 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.1 percent and declined 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.4 percent relative to the prior quarter and fell 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, the GDP of the euro area fell 0.4 percent and decreased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2013, euro area GDP increased 0.2 percent and fell 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2013 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent and 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The euro area’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier.
• Germany. The GDP of Germany increased 0.3 percent in IQ2012 and 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier but 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier when adjusted for calendar (CA) effects. In IIIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IVQ2012 and decreased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, Germany’s GDP decreased 0.4 percent and fell 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 0.8 percent and 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2013 and 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent and 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.8 percent in IQ2014 and 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Germany’s GDP contracted 0.1 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier.
• United States. Growth of US GDP in IQ2012 was 0.6 percent, at SAAR of 2.3 percent and higher by 2.6 percent relative to IQ2011. US GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2012, 1.6 percent at SAAR and 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, US GDP grew 0.6 percent, 2.5 percent at SAAR and 2.7 percent relative to IIIQ2011. In IVQ2012, US GDP grew 0.0 percent, 0.1 percent at SAAR and 1.6 percent relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, US GDP grew at 2.7 percent SAAR, 0.7 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.7 percent relative to the same quarter in 2013. In IIQ2013, US GDP grew at 1.8 percent in SAAR, 0.4 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.8 percent relative to IIQ2012. US GDP grew at 4.5 percent in SAAR in IIIQ2013, 1.1 percent relative to the prior quarter and 2.3 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html). In IVQ2013, US GDP grew 0.9 percent at 3.5 percent SAAR and 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, US GDP decreased 0.5 percent, increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier and fell 2.1 percent at SAAR. In IIQ2014, US GDP increased 1.1 percent at 4.6 percent SAAR and increased 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP increased 1.2 percent in IIIQ2014 at 5.0 percent SAAR and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, US GDP increased 0.5 percent at SAAR of 2.2 percent and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier.
• United Kingdom. In IQ2012, UK GDP increased 0.1 percent, increasing 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP fell 0.2 percent in IIQ2012 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIIQ2012 and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP fell 0.3 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IIIQ2012 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2013 and 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2013 and 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2013, UK GDP increased 0.7 percent and 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2013 and 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, UK GDP increased 0.9 percent and 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2014 and 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2014, UK GDP increased 0.6 percent and increased 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.6 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier.
• Italy. Italy has experienced decline of GDP in nine consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IIIQ2013 and in IIQ2014 and IIIQ2014. Italy’s GDP fell 0.9 percent in IQ2012 and declined 2.3 percent relative to IQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell 0.6 percent in IIQ2012 and declined 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, Italy’s GDP fell 0.6 percent and declined 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy contracted 0.6 percent in IVQ2012 and fell 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, Italy’s GDP contracted 0.8 percent and fell 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.1 percent in IIQ2013 and 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2013 and declined 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2013 and decreased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, Italy’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent and fell 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy fell 0.2 percent in IIQ2014 and declined 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2014, Italy’s GDP contracted 0.1 percent and fell 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy changed 0.0 percent in IVQ20214 and declined 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier

France. France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2012 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.3 percent in IIQ2012 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP fell 0.2 percent in IVQ2012 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, France’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent and declined 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2013 and 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2013 and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2013 and 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, France’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, France’s GDP contracted 0.1 percent and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier

Table V-3, Percentage Changes of GDP Quarter on Prior Quarter and on Same Quarter Year Earlier, ∆%

	IQ2012/IVQ2011	IQ2012/IQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.6        SAAR: 2.3	2.6
Japan	QOQ: 1.1 SAAR: 4.3	3.5
China	1.4	8.1
Euro Area	-0.1	-0.4
Germany	0.3	1.5
France	0.2	0.6
Italy	-0.9	-2.3
United Kingdom	0.1	1.0
	IIQ2012/IQ2012	IIQ2012/IIQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.4         SAAR: 1.6	2.3
Japan	QOQ: -0.4 SAAR: -1.4	3.5
China	2.1	7.6
Euro Area	-0.3	-0.8
Germany	0.1	0.3 0.8 CA
France	-0.3	0.4
Italy	-0.6	-3.1
United Kingdom	-0.2	0.6
	IIIQ2012/ IIQ2012	IIIQ2012/ IIIQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.6  SAAR: 2.5	2.7
Japan	QOQ: –0.5 SAAR: –2.2	0.2
China	2.0	7.4
Euro Area	-0.1	-0.8
Germany	0.1	0.1
France	0.2	0.4
Italy	-0.6	-3.1
United Kingdom	0.8	0.7
	IVQ2012/IIIQ2012	IVQ2012/IVQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.0 SAAR: 0.1	1.6
Japan	QOQ: -0.2 SAAR: -0.6	0.0
China	1.9	7.9
Euro Area	-0.4	-0.9
Germany	-0.4	-0.3
France	-0.2	0.0
Italy	-0.6	-2.7
United Kingdom	-0.3	0.4
	IQ2013/IVQ2012	IQ2013/IQ2012
United States	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.7	1.7
Japan	QOQ: 1.4 SAAR: 5.6	0.5
China	1.7	7.8
Euro Area	-0.4	-1.2
Germany	-0.4	-1.8
France	-0.1	-0.3
Italy	-0.8	-2.6
UK	0.6	0.9
	IIQ2013/IQ2013	IIQ2013/IIQ2012
United States	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.8	1.8
Japan	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.3	1.4
China	1.8	7.5
Euro Area	0.3	-0.6
Germany	0.8	0.5
France	0.7	0.7
Italy	-0.1	-2.0
UK	0.6	1.7
	IIIQ2013/IIQ2013	III/Q2013/  IIIQ2012
USA	QOQ: 1.1 SAAR: 4.5	2.3
Japan	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.4	2.2
China	2.3	7.9
Euro Area	0.2	-0.3
Germany	0.3	0.8
France	-0.1	0.3
Italy	0.1	-1.4
UK	0.7	1.6
	IVQ2013/IIIQ2013	IVQ2013/IVQ2012
USA	QOQ: 0.9 SAAR: 3.5	3.1
Japan	QOQ: -0.3 SAAR: -1.2	2.3
China	1.8	7.6
Euro Area	0.3	0.4
Germany	0.4	1.0
France	0.3	0.8
Italy	0.0	-0.8
UK	0.4	2.4
	IQ2014/IVQ2013	IQ2014/IQ2013
USA	QOQ -0.5 SAAR -2.1	1.9
Japan	QOQ: 1.3 SAAR: 5.1	2.4
China	1.6	7.4
Euro Area	0.3	1.1
Germany	0.8	2.6
France	-0.1	0.8
Italy	-0.1	-0.1
UK	0.9	2.7
	IIQ2014/IQ2014	IIQ2014/IIQ2013
USA	QOQ 1.1 SAAR 4.6	2.6
Japan	QOQ: -1.6 SAAR: -6.4	-0.3
China	1.9	7.5
Euro Area	0.1	0.8
Germany	-0.1	1.0
France	-0.1	0.0
Italy	-0.2	-0.3
UK	0.8	2.9
	IIIQ2014/IIQ2014	IIIQ2014/IIIQ2013
USA	QOQ: 1.2 SAAR: 5.0	2.7
Japan	QOQ: -0.7 SAAR: -2.6	-1.4
China	1.9	7.3
Euro Area	0.2	0.8
Germany	0.1	1.2
France	0.3	0.4
Italy	-0.1	-0.5
UK	0.6	2.8
	IVQ2014/IIIQ2014	IVQ2014/IVQ2013
USA	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.2	2.4
Japan	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.5	-0.8
China	1.5	7.3
Euro Area	0.3	0.9
Germany	0.7	1.6
France	0.1	0.2
Italy	0.0	-0.5
UK	0.6	3.0

QOQ: Quarter relative to prior quarter; SAAR: seasonally adjusted annual rate

Source: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.census.gov/aboutus/stat_int.html

Table V-4 provides two types of data: growth of exports and imports in the latest available months and in the past 12 months; and contributions of net trade (exports less imports) to growth of real GDP.

• Japan. Japan provides the most worrisome data (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/patience-on-interest-rate-increases.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/monetary-policy-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/valuation-risks-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/interest-rate-risks-world-inflation.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/global-financial-risk-world-inflation.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations_8763.html http://cmpass ocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/paring-quantitative-easing-policy-and_4699.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/thirty-one-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/12/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_24.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/11/contraction-of-united-states-real_25.html and for GDP http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html and earlier http://cmpassocreulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/recovery-without-hiring-united-states.html). In Feb 2015, Japan’s exports increased 2.4 percent in 12 months while imports decreased 3.6 percent. The second part of Table V-4 shows that net trade deducted 1.4 percentage points from Japan’s growth of GDP in IIQ2012, deducted 1.9 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2012 and deducted 0.4 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2012. Net trade added 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2012, 1.6 percentage points in IQ2013 and 0.2 percentage points in IIQ2013. In IIIQ2013, net trade deducted 1.5 percentage points from GDP growth in Japan. Net trade ducted 2.1 percentage points from GDP growth in Japan in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 1.2 percentage point from GDP growth of Japan in IQ2014. Net trade added 4.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2014. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2014 and added 0.9 percentage points in IVQ2014.

• China. In Feb 2015, China exports increased 48.3 percent relative to a year earlier and imports decreased 20.5 percent.
• Germany. Germany’s exports increased 1.5 percent in the month of Feb 2015 and increased 3.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2015. Germany’s imports increased 1.8 percent in the month of Feb 2015 and increased 0.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to growth of GDP in IQ2012, contributed 0.4 percentage points in IIQ2012, contributed 0.3 percentage points in IIIQ2012, deducted 0.5 percentage points in IVQ2012, deducted 0.3 percentage points in IQ2013 and added 0.1 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded deducted 0.5 percentage points from Germany’s GDP growth in IIIQ2013 and added 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2014. Net trade added 0.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2014 and added 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2014.
• United Kingdom. Net trade contributed 0.7 percentage points in IIQ2013. In IIIQ2013, net trade deducted 1.7 percentage points from UK growth. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to UK value added in IVQ2013. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to UK value added in IQ2014 and 0.2 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2014 and added 0.8 percentage points in IVQ2014.
• France. France’s exports increased 1.4 percent in Feb 2015 while imports increased 0.6 percent. France’s exports increased 3.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2015 and imports decreased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Net traded added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IIIQ2012 and 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IQ2013 and added 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2013, deducting 1.7 percentage points in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IVQ2013 and deducted 0.1 percentage points in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IIQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to France’s GDP growth in IVQ2014.
• United States. US exports decreased 1.6 percent in Feb 2015 and goods exports decreased 4.6 percent in Jan-Feb 2015 relative to a year earlier. Imports decreased 4.4 percent in Feb 2015 and goods imports decreased 3.5 percent in Jan-Feb 2015 relative to a year earlier. Net trade deducted 0.04 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2012 and added 0.39 percentage points in IIIQ2012 and 0.79 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade deducted 0.08 percentage points from US GDP growth in IQ2013 and deducted 0.54 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded added 0.59 percentage points to US GDP growth in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 1.08 percentage points to US GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 1.66 percentage points from US GDP growth in IQ2014 and deducted 0.34 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade added 0.78 percentage points to IIIQ2014. Net trade deducted 1.15 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2014. Industrial production increased 0.2 percent in Jan 2015 and decreased 0.3 percent in Dec 2014 after increasing 1.1 percent in Nov 2014. Industrial production increased 0.1 percent in Feb 2015 and decreased 0.3 percent in Jan 2015 after decreasing 0.2 percent in Dec 2014, with all data seasonally adjusted. The Federal Reserve completed its annual revision of industrial production and capacity utilization on Mar 28, 2014 (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/revisions/Current/DefaultRev.htm). The report of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System states (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm):

“Industrial production increased 0.1 percent in February after decreasing 0.3 percent in January. In February, manufacturing output moved down 0.2 percent, its third consecutive monthly decline. The rates of change for the total index in January and for manufacturing in both December and January are lower than previously reported. The index for mining fell 2.5 percent in February; drops in the indexes for coal mining and for oil and gas well drilling and servicing primarily accounted for the decrease. The output of utilities jumped 7.3 percent, as especially cold temperatures drove up demand for heating. At 105.8 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in February was 3.5 percent above its level of a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased to 78.9 percent in February, a rate that is 1.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2014) average.“ In the six months ending in Feb 2015, United States national industrial production accumulated increase of 1.4 percent at the annual equivalent rate of 2.8 percent, which is lower than growth of 3.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2015. Excluding growth of 1.2 percent in Nov 2014, growth in the remaining five months from Sep 2014 to Feb 2015 accumulated to 0.2 percent or 0.5 percent annual equivalent. Industrial production declined in three of the past six months. Industrial production contracted at annual equivalent 1.6 percent in the most recent quarter from Dec 2014 to Feb 2015 and expanded at 7.4 percent in the prior quarter Sep to Nov 2014. Business equipment accumulated growth of 0.9 percent in the six months from Sep 2014 to Feb 2015 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.8 percent, which is lower than growth of 4.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2015. The Fed analyzes capacity utilization of total industry in its report (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm): “Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased to 78.9 percent in February, a rate that is 1.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2014) average.” United States industry apparently decelerated to a lower growth rate followed by possible acceleration and oscillating growth in past months.

Manufacturing fell 21.9 from the peak in Jun 2007 to the trough in Apr 2009 and increased by 25.0 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Dec 2014. Manufacturing grew 24.3 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Feb 2015. Manufacturing output in Feb 2015 is 2.9 percent below the peak in Jun 2007. The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IVQ2014 would have accumulated to 23.0 percent. GDP in IVQ2014 would be $18,438.0 billion (in constant dollars of 2009) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $2,143.3 billion than actual $16,294.7 billion. There are about two trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 26.7 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 16.1 percent of the effective labor force (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-competitive-devaluation-rules.html). US GDP in IVQ2014 is 11.6 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $14,991.8 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $16,294.7 billion in IVQ2014 or 8.7 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.2 percent. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth at average 3.3 percent per year from Feb 1919 to Feb 2015. Growth at 3.3 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output from 99.2392 in Dec 2007 to 125.2379 in Feb 2015. The actual index NSA in Feb 2015 is 100.0312, which is 20.1 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 2.4 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2014, raising the index at trend to 117.6250 in Feb 2015. The output of manufacturing at 100.0312 in Feb 2015 is 15.0 percent below trend under this alternative calculation.

Table V-4, Growth of Trade and Contributions of Net Trade to GDP Growth, ∆% and % Points

	Exports M ∆%	Exports 12 M ∆%	Imports M ∆%	Imports 12 M ∆%
USA	-1.6 Jan	-4.6 Jan-Feb	-4.4 Jan	-3.5 Jan-Feb
Japan		Feb 2015 2.4 Jan 17.0 Dec 12.9 Nov 4.9 Oct 9.6 Sep 6.9 Aug -1.3 Jul 3.9 Jun -2.0 May 2014 -2.7 Apr 2014 5.1 Mar 2014 1.8 Feb 2014 9.5 Jan 2014 9.5 Dec 2013 15.3 Nov 2013 18.4 Oct 2013 18.6 Sep 2013 11.5 Aug 2013 14.7 Jul 2013 12.2 Jun 2013 7.4 May 2013 10.1 Apr 2013 3.8 Mar 2013 1.1 Feb 2013 -2.9 Jan 2013 6.4 Dec -5.8 Nov -4.1 Oct -6.5 Sep -10.3 Aug -5.8 Jul -8.1		Feb 2015 -3.6 Jan -9.0 Dec 1.9 Nov -1.7 Oct 2.7 Sep 6.2 Aug -1.5 Jul 2.3 Jun 8.4 May 2014 -3.6 Apr 2013 3.4 Mar 2014 18.1 Feb 2014 9.0 Jan 2014 25.0 Dec 2013 24.7 Nov 2013 21.1 Oct 2013 26.1 Sep 2013 16.5 Aug 2013 16.0 Jul 2013 19.6 Jun 2013 11.8 May 2013 10.0 Apr 2013 9.4 Mar 2013 5.5 Feb 2013 7.3 Jan 2013 7.3 Dec 1.9 Nov 0.8 Oct -1.6 Sep 4.1 Aug -5.4 Jul 2.1
China		2015 48.3 Feb -3.3 Jan 2014 9.7 Dec 4.7 Nov 11.6 Oct 15.3 Sep 9.4 Aug 14.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 7.0 May 0.9 Apr -6.6 Mar -18.1 Feb 10.6 Jan 2013 4.3 Dec 12.7 Nov 5.6 Oct -0.3 Sep 7.2 Aug 5.1 Jul -3.1 Jun 1.0 May 14.7 Apr 10.0 Mar 21.8 Feb 25.0 Jan		2015 -20.5 Feb -19.9 Jan 2014 -2.4 Dec -6.7 Nov 4.6 Oct 7.0 Sep -2.4 Aug -1.6 Jul 5.5 Jun -1.6 May -0.8 Apr -11.3 Mar 10.1 Feb 10.0 Jan 2013 8.3 Dec 5.3 Nov 7.6 Oct 7.4 Sep 7.0 Aug 10.9 Jul -0.7 Jun -0.3 May 16.8 Apr 14.1 Mar -15.2 Feb 28.8 Jan
Euro Area	-0.4 12 M-Jan	2.2 Jan-Dec	-5.6 12-M Jan	0.1 Jan-Dec
Germany	1.5 Feb CSA	3.9 Feb	1.8 Feb CSA	0.8 Feb
France Feb	1.4	3.0	0.6	1.5
Italy Jan	-2.5	-4.2	1.0	-4.2
UK	-2.4 Feb	0.5 Dec 14-Feb 15 /Dec 13-Feb 14	0.7 Feb	-1.8 Dec 14-Feb 15 /Dec 13-Feb 14
Net Trade % Points GDP Growth	% Points
USA	IVQ2014 -1.15 IIIQ2014 0.78 IIQ2014 -0.34 IQ2014 -1.66 IVQ2013 1.08 IIIQ2013 0.59 IIQ2013 -0.54 IQ2013 -0.08 IVQ2012 +0.79 IIIQ2012 0.39 IIQ2012 -0.04 IQ2012 -0.11
Japan	0.3 IQ2012 -1.4 IIQ2012 -1.9 IIIQ2012 -0.4 IVQ2012 1.6 IQ2013 0.2 IIQ2013 -1.5 IIIQ2013 -2.1 IVQ2013 -1.2 IQ2014 4.2 IIQ2014 0.2 IIIQ2014 0.9 IVQ2014
Germany	IQ2012 0.8 IIQ2012 0.4 IIIQ2012 0.3 IVQ2012 -0.5 IQ2013 -0.3 IIQ2013 0.1 IIIQ2013 -0.5 IVQ2013 0.5 IQ2014 -0.1 IIQ2014 0.0 IIIQ2014 0.4 IVQ2014 0.2
France	0.1 IIIQ2012 0.1 IVQ2012 -0.1 IQ2013 0.3 IIQ2013 -1.7 IIIQ2013 0.1 IVQ2013 -0.1 IQ2014 -0.2 IIQ2014 -0.2 IIIQ2014 0.2 IVQ2014
UK	0.7 IIQ2013 -1.7 IIIQ2013 0.1 IVQ2013 0.1 IQ2014 0.2 IIQ2214 -0.5 IIIQ2014 0.8 IVQ2014

Sources: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/

The geographical breakdown of exports and imports of Japan with selected regions and countries is in Table VB-5 for Feb 2015. The share of Asia in Japan’s trade is close to one-half for 51.6 percent of exports and 50.6 percent of imports. Within Asia, exports to China are 15.0 percent of total exports and imports from China 26.0 percent of total imports. While exports to China decreased 17.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2015, imports from China increased 39.4 percent. The largest export market for Japan in Feb 2015 is the US with share of 20.3 percent of total exports, which is close to that of China, and share of imports from the US of 9.2 percent in total imports. Japan’s exports to the US increased 14.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2015 and imports from the US increased 0.5 percent. Western Europe has share of 10.7 percent in Japan’s exports and of 10.7 percent in imports. Rates of growth of exports of Japan in Feb 2015 are 14.3 percent for exports to the US, 14.4 percent for exports to Brazil and minus 4.4 percent for exports to Germany. Comparisons relative to 2011 may have some bias because of the effects of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Deceleration of growth in China and the US and threat of recession in Europe can reduce world trade and economic activity. Growth rates of imports in the 12 months ending in Feb 2015 are mixed. Imports from Asia decreased 3.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2015 while imports from China increased 16.8 percent. Data are in millions of yen, which may have effects of recent depreciation of the yen relative to the United States dollar (USD).

Table VB-5, Japan, Value and 12-Month Percentage Changes of Exports and Imports by Regions and Countries, ∆% and Millions of Yen

Feb 2015	Exports Millions Yen	12 months ∆%	Imports Millions Yen	12 months ∆%
Total	5,941,062	2.4	6,365,660	-3.6
Asia	3,068,435 % Total 51.6	-1.1	3,218,465 % Total 50.6	16.8
China	888,893 % Total 15.0	-17.3	1,657,797 % Total 26.0	39.4
USA	1,215,673 % Total 20.5	14.3	583,982 % Total 9.2	0.5
Canada	81,977	19.1	78,456	-8.8
Brazil	44,487	14.4	85,814	-10.4
Mexico	96,650	16.4	43,839	21.5
Western Europe	634,818 % Total 10.7	1.7	679,425 % Total 10.7	-3.9
Germany	158,600	-4.4	194,294	-9.4
France	54,121	6.4	86,072	7.3
UK	86,176	-1.9	51,802	-1.7
Middle East	256,291	11.0	763,137	-42.6
Australia	129,414	2.5	364,356	-2.7

Source: Japan, Ministry of Finance http://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/info/index_e.htm

World trade projections of the IMF are in Table V-6. There is increasing growth of the volume of world trade of goods and services from 3.0 percent in 2013 to 5.0 percent in 2015 and 5.6 percent on average from 2016 to 2019. World trade would be slower for advanced economies while emerging and developing economies (EMDE) experience faster growth. World economic slowdown would be more challenging with lower growth of world trade.

Table V-6, IMF, Projections of World Trade, USD Billions, USD/Barrel and Annual ∆%

	2013	2014	2015	Average ∆% 2016-2019
World Trade Volume (Goods and Services)	3.0	3.8	5.0	5.6
Exports Goods & Services	3.2	3.7	5.0	5.5
Imports Goods & Services	2.8	3.9	5.0	5.6
World Trade Value of Exports Goods & Services USD Billion	23,114	23,928	24,948	Average ∆% 2006-2015 20,259
Value of Exports of Goods USD Billion	18,671	19,299	20,107	Average ∆% 2006-2015 16,312
Average Oil Price USD/Barrel	104.07	102.76	99.36	Average ∆% 2006-2015 88.85
Average Annual ∆% Export Unit Value of Manufactures	-1.1	-0.2	-0.5	Average ∆% 2006-2015 -0.6
Exports of Goods & Services	2013	2014	2015	Average ∆% 2016-2019
Euro Area	1.8	3.5	4.3	4.7
EMDE	4.4	3.9	5.8	6.1
G7	1.8	2.9	4.2	4.9
Imports Goods & Services
Euro Area	0.5	3.4	3.9	4.7
EMDE	5.3	4.4	6.1	6.3
G7	1.2	3.6	4.1	4.9
Terms of Trade of Goods & Services
Euro Area	0.8	-0.4	-0.3	-0.1
EMDE	-0.2	-0.02	-0.6	-0.4
G7	0.8	0.7	-0.2	0.0
Terms of Trade of Goods
Euro Area	1.2	0.03	-0.02	-0.2
EMDE	-0.2	0.2	-0.4	-0.3
G7	0.9	0.3	-0.1	-0.1

Notes: Commodity Price Index includes Fuel and Non-fuel Prices; Commodity Industrial Inputs Price includes agricultural raw materials and metal prices; Oil price is average of WTI, Brent and Dubai

Source: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook databank

http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28

The JP Morgan Global All-Industry Output Index of the JP Morgan Manufacturing and Services PMI^™, produced by JP Morgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM, with high association with world GDP, increased to 54.8 in Mar from 53.9 in Feb, indicating expansion at higher rate (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/29a6f1bcf0bd43358458fd301141a6d1). This index has remained above the contraction territory of 50.0 during 68 consecutive months. The employment index increased from 51.8 in Feb to 52.0 in Mar with input prices rising at faster rate, new orders increasing at faster rate and output increasing at faster rate (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/29a6f1bcf0bd43358458fd301141a6d1). David Hensley, Director of Global Economic Coordination at JP Morgan, finds acceleration of world economic growth in IQ2015 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/29a6f1bcf0bd43358458fd301141a6d1). The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI^™, produced by JP Morgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM, decreased to 51.8 in Mar from 51.9 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/667a34f2b7664124b9bacd22a85f00d9). New export orders expanded for the twentieth consecutive month. David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JP Morgan Chase, finds continuing growth in global manufacturing with output increasing at rates around those in past months (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/667a34f2b7664124b9bacd22a85f00d9). The HSBC Brazil Composite Output Index, compiled by Markit, decreased from 51.3 in Feb to 47.0 in Mar, indicating contraction in activity of Brazil’s private sector (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/98cdf9074e5e4da68b6de8f3bbf1dd75). The HSBC Brazil Services Business Activity index, compiled by Markit, decreased from 52.3 in Feb to 47.9 in Mar, indicating contracting services activity (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/98cdf9074e5e4da68b6de8f3bbf1dd75). Pollyana De Lima, Economist at Markit, finds weaker private sector activity (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/98cdf9074e5e4da68b6de8f3bbf1dd75). The HSBC Brazil Purchasing Managers’ Index^TM (PMI^™) decreased from 49.6 in Feb to 46.2 in Mar, indicating deterioration in manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/a7a09c9443da4a7b91e8017781be1fd3). Pollyanna De Lima, Economist at Markit, finds the fastest contraction of manufacturing output in three and a half years (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/a7a09c9443da4a7b91e8017781be1fd3).

VA United States. The Markit Flash US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) seasonally adjusted increased to 55.3 in Mar from 55.1 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/2861da71797f4fa9bc41b8cbee173955). New export orders declined. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds that manufacturing expanding with challenges to competitiveness from the strong dollar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/2861da71797f4fa9bc41b8cbee173955). The Markit Flash US Services PMI™ Business Activity Index increased from 57.1 in Feb to 58.6 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/89c23ff78b0f4f29a791fd417b52764d). The Markit Flash US Composite PMI™ Output Index increased from 57.2 in Feb to 58.5 in Mar. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds that the surveys are consistent with slowing GDP growth that may accelerate in the second quarter (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/89c23ff78b0f4f29a791fd417b52764d). The Markit US Composite PMI™ Output Index of Manufacturing and Services increased to 59.2 in Mar from 57.2 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8bf81bec1dc54c04acb6fec388744e9f). The Markit US Services PMI™ Business Activity Index increased from 57.1 in Feb to 59.2 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8bf81bec1dc54c04acb6fec388744e9f). Tim Moore, Senior Economist at Markit, finds the indexes consistent with US growth in IIQ2015 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8bf81bec1dc54c04acb6fec388744e9f). The Markit US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) increased to 55.7 in Mar from 55.1 in Feb, which indicates expansion at faster rate (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/ddc73e386ca84f55aef2be31c5af4241). New foreign orders stagnated. Tim Moore, Senior Economist at Markit, finds that the index suggests restrain of foreign orders because of dollar appreciation (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/ddc73e386ca84f55aef2be31c5af4241). The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Report on Business^® decreased 1.4 percentage points from 52.9 in Feb to 51.5 in Mar, which indicates growth at slower rate (http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm?navItemNumber=29253). The index of new orders decreased 0.7 percentage points from 52.5 in Feb to 51.8 in Mar. The index of new export orders decreased 1.0 percentage points from 48.5 in Feb to 47.5 in Mar, contracting at faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report on Business^® PMI decreased 0.4 percentage points from 56.9 in Feb to 56.5 in Mar, indicating growth of business activity/production during 68 consecutive months, while the index of new orders increased 1.1 percentage points from 56.7 in Feb to 57.8 in Mar (http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm?navItemNumber=29259). Table USA provides the country economic indicators for the US.

Table USA, US Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index	Feb 12 months NSA ∆%: 0.0; ex food and energy ∆%: 1.7 Feb month SA ∆%: 0.2; ex food and energy ∆%: 0.2 Blog 3/29/15
Producer Price Index	Finished Goods Feb 12-month NSA ∆%: -3.4; ex food and energy ∆% 1.5 Feb month SA ∆% = -0.1; ex food and energy ∆%: 0.1 Final Demand Feb 12-month NSA ∆%: -0.6; ex food and energy ∆% 1.0 Feb month SA ∆% = -0.5; ex food and energy ∆%: -0.5 Blog 3/22/15 3/29/15
PCE Inflation	Feb 12-month NSA ∆%: headline 0.3; ex food and energy ∆% 1.4 Blog 4/5/15
Employment Situation	Household Survey: Mar Unemployment Rate SA 5.5% Blog calculation People in Job Stress Mar: 26.7 million NSA, 16.1% of Labor Force Establishment Survey: Mar Nonfarm Jobs +126,000; Private +129,000 jobs created  Feb 12-month Average Hourly Earnings Inflation Adjusted ∆%: 2.0 Blog 4/5/15
Nonfarm Hiring	Nonfarm Hiring fell from 63.3 million in 2006 to 54.2 million in 2013 or by 9.1 million and to 58.7 million in 2014 or by 4.6 million Private-Sector Hiring Feb 2015 3.998 million lower by 0.395 million than 4.393 million in Feb 2006 Blog 4/12/15
GDP Growth	BEA Revised National Income Accounts IQ2012/IQ2011 ∆%: 2.6 IIQ2012/IIQ2011 2.3 IIIQ2012/IIIQ2011 2.7 IVQ2012/IVQ2011 1.6 IQ2013/IQ2012 1.7 IIQ2013/IIQ2012 1.8 IIIQ2013/IIIQ2012 2.3 IVQ2013/IVQ2012 3.1 IQ2014/IQ2013 1.9 IIQ2014/IIQ2013 2.6 IIIQ2014/IIIQ2013 2.7 IVQ2014/IVQ2013 2.4 IQ2012 SAAR 2.3 IIQ2012 SAAR 1.6 IIIQ2012 SAAR 2.5 IVQ2012 SAAR 0.1 IQ2013 SAAR 2.7 IIQ2013 SAAR 1.8 IIIQ2013 SAAR 4.5 IVQ2013 SAAR 3.5 IQ2014 SAAR -2.1 IIQ2014 SAAR 4.6 IIIQ2014 SAAR 5.0 IVQ2014 SAAR 2.2 Blog 3/29/15
Real Private Fixed Investment	SAAR IVQ2014 4.5 ∆% IVQ2007 to IVQ2014: 3.3% Blog 3/29/15
Corporate Profits	IVQ2014 SAAR: Corporate Profits -1.4; Undistributed Profits -6.6 Blog 3/29/15
Personal Income and Consumption	Feb month ∆% SA Real Disposable Personal Income (RDPI) SA ∆% 0.2 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (RPCE): -0.1 12-month Feb NSA ∆%: RDPI: 4.0; RPCE ∆%: 2.6 Blog 4/5/15
Quarterly Services Report	IVQ14/IVQ13 NSA ∆%: Information 4.6 Financial & Insurance 5.2 Blog 3/22/15
Employment Cost Index	Compensation Private IVQ2014 SA ∆%: 0.6 Dec 12 months ∆%: 2.3 Blog 2/1/15
Industrial Production	Feb month SA ∆%: 0.1 Feb 12 months SA ∆%: 3.5 Manufacturing Feb SA -0.2 ∆% Feb 12 months SA ∆% 3.3, NSA 5.5 Capacity Utilization: 78.9 Blog 3/22/15
Productivity and Costs	Nonfarm Business Productivity IVQ2014∆% SAAE -2.2; IVQ2014/IVQ2013 ∆% -0.1; Unit Labor Costs SAAE IVQ2014 ∆% 4.1; IVQ2014/IVQ2013 ∆%: 2.6 Blog 3/8/15
New York Fed Manufacturing Index	General Business Conditions From Feb 7.78 to Mar 6.90 New Orders: From Feb 1.22 to Mar minus 2.39 Blog 3/22/15
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index	General Index from Feb 5.2 to Mar 5.0 New Orders from Feb 5.4 to Mar 3.9 Blog 3/22/15
Manufacturing Shipments and Orders	New Orders SA Feb ∆% 0.2 Ex Transport 0.8 Jan-Feb NSA New Orders ∆% minus 5.4 Ex transport minus 5.9 Blog 4/5/15
Durable Goods	Feb New Orders SA ∆%: minus 1.4; ex transport ∆%: minus 0.4 Jan-Feb 15/Jan-Feb 14 New Orders NSA ∆%: -0.5; ex transport ∆% 0.5 Blog 3/29/15
Sales of New Motor Vehicles	Mar 2015 3,954,544; Mar 2014 3,743,742. Mar 15 SAAR 17.15 million, Feb 15 SAAR 16.23 million, Mar 2014 SAAR 16.49 million Blog 4/5/15
Sales of Merchant Wholesalers	Jan-Feb 2015/Jan-Feb 2014 NSA ∆%: Total -2.6; Durable Goods: 3.4; Nondurable Goods: -7.6 Blog 4/12/15
Sales and Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers	Jan 15 12-M NSA ∆%: Sales Total Business -2.2; Manufacturers -4.1 Retailers 2.3; Merchant Wholesalers -3.8 Blog 3/15/15
Sales for Retail and Food Services	Jan-Feb 2015/Jan-Feb 2014 ∆%: Retail and Food Services 2.3; Retail ∆% 1.4 Blog 3/15/15
Value of Construction Put in Place	Feb SAAR month SA ∆%: minus 0.1 Feb 12-month NSA:3.1 Blog 4/5/15
Case-Shiller Home Prices	Jan 2015/ Jan 2014 ∆% NSA: 10 Cities 4.4; 20 Cities: 4.6; National: 4.5 ∆% Jan SA: 10 Cities 0.9 ; 20 Cities: 0.9 Blog 4/5/15
FHFA House Price Index Purchases Only	Jan SA ∆% 0.3; 12 month NSA ∆%: 5.1 Blog 3/1/15
New House Sales	Feb 2015 month SAAR ∆%: minus 19.1 Jan-Feb 2015/Jan-Feb 2014 NSA ∆%: 9.1 Blog 3/29/15
Housing Starts and Permits	Feb Starts month SA ∆% -17.0; Permits ∆%: 3.0 Jan-Feb 2015/Jan-Feb 2014 NSA ∆% Starts 8.0; Permits  ∆% 6.5 Blog 3/22/15
Trade Balance	Balance Feb SA -$35,444 million versus Jan -$42,676 million Exports Feb SA ∆%: -1.6 Imports Feb SA ∆%: -4.4 Goods Exports Jan-Feb 2015/Feb 2014 NSA ∆%: -4.6 Goods Imports Jan-Feb 2015/Jan 2014 NSA ∆%: -3.5 Blog 4/5/15
Export and Import Prices	Mar 12-month NSA ∆%: Imports -10.5; Exports -6.7 Blog 4/12/15
Consumer Credit	Feb ∆% annual rate: Total 5.6; Revolving 5.6; Nonrevolving 9.4 Blog 4/12/15
Net Foreign Purchases of Long-term Treasury Securities	Jan Net Foreign Purchases of Long-term US Securities: minus $39.3 billion Major Holders of Treasury Securities: China $1239 billion; Japan $1239 billion; Total Foreign US Treasury Holdings Jan $6218 billion Blog 3/22/15
Treasury Budget	Fiscal Year 2015/2014 ∆% Feb: Receipts 7.1; Outlays 6.0; Individual Income Taxes 8.1 Deficit Fiscal Year 2011 $1,300 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2012 $1,087 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2013 $680 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2014 $483 billion Blog 3/15/2015
CBO Budget and Economic Outlook	2012 Deficit $1087 B 6.8% GDP Debt $11,281 B 70.4% GDP 2013 Deficit $680 B, 4.1% GDP Debt $11,983 B 72.3% GDP 2014 Deficit $483 B 2.8% GDP Debt $12,779 B 74.1% GDP 2025 Deficit $1,088B, 4.0% GDP Debt $21,605B 78.7% GDP 2039: Long-term Debt/GDP 106% Blog 8/26/12 11/18/12 2/10/13 9/22/13 2/16/14 8/24/14 9/14/14 3/1/15
Commercial Banks Assets and Liabilities	Dec 2014 SAAR ∆%: Securities 24.2 Loans 7.1 Cash Assets -52.4 Deposits 7.6 Blog 1/25/15
Flow of Funds Net Worth of Families and Nonprofits	IVQ2014 ∆ since 2007 Assets +$15,921.0 BN Nonfinancial $898.5 BN Real estate $172.1 BN Financial +15,022.4 BN Net Worth +$16,162.4 BN Blog 3/29/15
Current Account Balance of Payments	IVQ2014 -111,222 MM % GDP 2.6 Blog 3/22/15
Collapse of United States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation	Blog 4/12/15

Links to blog comments in Table USA: 4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html

3/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

3/8/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-competitive-devaluation-rules.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html

1/25/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/01/competitive-currency-conflicts-world.html

9/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitics-monetary-policy-and.html

8/24/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/monetary-policy-world-inflation-waves.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

9/22/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

2/10/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/united-states-unsustainable-fiscal.html

Sales and inventories of merchant wholesalers except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices are shown in Table VA-1 for Jan-Feb 2015 NSA and percentage changes from the prior month SA and for Feb 2015 relative to Feb 2014. These data are volatile, aggregating diverse categories of durable and nondurable goods without adjustment for price changes. Total sales for the US fell 2.6 percent in Jan-Feb 2015 relative to Jan-Feb 2014 and decreased 0.2 percent in Feb 2015 relative to Jan 2015. The value of total sales is quite high at $813.5 billion, approaching five trillion dollars in a year. Value in the breakdown is useful in identifying relative importance of individual categories. Sales of durable goods in Jan 2015 reached $398.7 billion, over two trillion dollars for a year, decreasing 2.4 percent in Feb 2015 relative to Jan 2015 and increasing 3.4 percent in Jan-Feb 2015 relative to Jan-Feb 2014. Sales of automotive products reached $64.7 billion in Feb 2015, decreasing 1.9 percent in the month and increasing 6.3 percent relative to a year earlier with declining gasoline prices. There is strong performance of 1.1 percent in machinery but higher of 8.5 percent in electrical products. Sales of nondurable goods fell 7.6 percent over a year earlier. The influence of commodity prices returned as suggested by increase of 0.5 percent in Feb 2015 and decrease of 7.2 percent in Jan-Feb 2015 relative to a year earlier in farm products with increase of 5.5 percent in petroleum products in Feb 2015 and decrease of 37.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The final three columns in Table VA-5 provide the value of inventories and percentage changes from the prior month and relative to the same month a year earlier. US total inventories of wholesalers increased 0.3 percent in Feb 2015 and increased 6.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Inventories of durable goods of $355.9 billion are 61.5 percent of total inventories of $579.0 billion and rose 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Automotive inventories increased 12.7 percent relative to a year earlier. Machinery inventories of $102.9 billion rose 6.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Inventories of nondurable goods of $223.1 billion are 38.5 percent of the total and increased 3.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Inventories of farm products decreased 0.3 percent in Feb relative to Jan and decreased 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Inventories of petroleum products increased 2.4 percent in Feb and decreased 18.4 percent relative to a year earlier.

Table VA-1, US, Sales and Inventories of Merchant Wholesalers except Manufacturers’ Sales Branches and Offices, Month ∆%

2015	Sales $ Billions Feb 2015 NSA	Sales Feb ∆% SA	Sales ∆% Jan-Feb 2015 from Jan-Feb 2014  NSA	INV $ Billions Feb 2015 NSA	INV Feb 2015 ∆% SA	INV  ∆% Feb 2015 from Feb 2014 NSA
US Total	813.5	-0.2	-2.6	579.0	0.3	6.0
Durable	389.8	-2.4	3.4	355.9	0.3	7.6
Automotive	64.7	-1.9	6.3	61.3	2.4	12.7
Prof. Equip.	65.6	-1.6	3.2	40.2	-0.5	7.7
Computer Equipment	33.5	-1.9	3.4	15.3	-1.4	8.6
Electrical	86.1	-5.0	8.5	46.5	1.1	10.1
Machinery	63.8	-3.4	1.1	102.9	0.4	6.4
Not Durable	423.7	1.9	-7.6	223.1	0.2	3.4
Drugs	92.5	4.0	13.9	52.6	0.5	15.9
Apparel	26.2	-1.1	4.2	27.0	1.1	7.3
Groceries	94.3	0.1	4.4	31.8	-1.0	7.2
Farm Products	39.7	0.5	-7.2	26.3	-0.3	-7.6
Petroleum	81.4	5.5	-37.7	19.2	2.4	-18.4

Note: INV: inventories

Source: US Census Bureau

http://www.census.gov/wholesale/index.html

Chart VA-1 of the US Census Bureau provides sales of wholesale trade NSA from Jan 1992 to Feb 2015. The jagged curve of wholesale trade sales without adjustment shows strong seasonal variations. There is a strong long-term trend interrupted by sharp drop during the global recession. Growth resumed along a stronger upward trend and the level surpasses the peak before the global recession with stability in the final segment.

Chart VA-1, US, Wholesale Trade Sales, Monthly, NSA, Jan 1992-Feb 2015, Millions of Dollars

Source: US Census Bureau

http://www.census.gov/wholesale/index.html

Chart VA-2 of the US Census Bureau provides US wholesale trade sales with seasonal adjustment from Jan 1992 to Feb 2015. The elimination of seasonality permits enhanced comparison of adjacent sales. The final segment identifies another drop followed by increase to a higher level with stability.

Chart VA-2, US, Wholesale Trade Sales, Monthly, SA, Jan 1992-Feb 2015, Millions of Dollars

Source: US Census Bureau

http://www.census.gov/wholesale/index.html

Inventory/sales ratios of merchant wholesalers except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices are in Table VA-2. The total for the US has increased moderately at 1.29 in Feb 2015, 1.29 in Jan 2015 and 1.20 in Feb 2014. Inventory/sales ratios are higher in durable goods industries but remain relatively stable with 1.66 in Feb 2015, 1.62 in Jan 2015 and 1.60 in Feb 2014. Computer equipment operates with low inventory/sales ratios of 0.82 in Feb 2015, 0.82 in Jan 2015 and 0.80 in Feb 2014 because of the capacity to fill orders on demand. As expected because of perishable nature, nondurable inventory/sales ratios are quite low with 0.95 in Feb 2015 and 0.97 in Jan 2015, which are close to 0.86 in Feb 2014. There are exceptions such as 1.93 in Feb 2015 in apparel that is close to 1.88 in Jan 2015 and close to 1.87 in Feb 2014.

Table VA-2, Inventory/Sales Ratios of Merchant Wholesalers except Manufacturers’ Sales Branches and Offices, % SA

	Feb 2015	Jan 2015	Feb 2014
US Total	1.29	1.29	1.20
Durable	1.66	1.62	1.60
Automotive	1.68	1.61	1.60
Prof. Equip.	1.09	1.08	1.04
Comp. Equip.	0.82	0.82	0.80
Electrical	1.02	0.96	1.00
Machinery	2.94	2.83	2.76
Not Durable	0.95	0.97	0.86
Drugs	1.09	1.13	1.11
Apparel	1.93	1.88	1.87
Groceries	0.64	0.64	0.62
Farm Products	1.08	1.08	1.15
Petroleum	0.43	0.45	0.34

Source: US Census Bureau

http://www.census.gov/wholesale/index.html

Inventories of merchant wholesalers except manufacturers’ sales branches in millions of dollars NSA are provided in Chart VA-3 of the US Census Bureau. There is evident acceleration in inventory building in the final segment at a sharper slope than before the global recession with recent downward turn followed by increase/stability.

Chart VA-3, US, Inventories of Merchant Wholesalers, Millions of Dollars, NSA, Jan 1992-Feb 2015

Source: US Census Bureau

http://www.census.gov/wholesale/index.html

Inventories of merchant wholesalers except manufacturers’ sales branches in millions of dollars SA are provided in Chart VA-4 of the US Census Bureau. There is evident acceleration in inventory building in the final segment at a sharper slope than before the global recession with recent downward turn followed by increase.

Chart VA-4, US, Inventories of Merchant Wholesalers, Millions of Dollars, SA, Jan 1992-Feb 2015

Source: US Census Bureau

http://www.census.gov/wholesale/index.html

Chart VA-5 provides the chart of the US Census Bureau with inventories/sales ratios of merchant wholesalers from 2004 to 2015 seasonally adjusted. Inventory/sales ratios rise during contractions as merchants are caught with increasing inventories because of weak sales and fall during expansions as merchants attempt to fill sales with existing stocks. There is an increase in the inventory/sales ratio in 2012 but not yet significantly higher with declining trend in the final segment followed by an increase and new decline/stability. There is an increase from 2014 into 2015.

Chart VA-5, US, Monthly Inventories/Sales Ratios of Merchant Wholesalers, SA, 2005-2015

Source: US Census Bureau

http://www2.census.gov/wholesale/img/mwtsbrf.jpg

The report of consumer credit outstanding of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is provided in Table VA-3. The data are in seasonally adjusted annual rates both percentage changes and billions of dollars. The estimate of consumer credit “covers most short- and intermediate-term credit extended to individuals, excluding loans secured by real estate” (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/default.htm). Consumer credit is divided into two categories. (1) Revolving consumer credit (REV in Table VA-3) consists mainly of unsecured credit cards. (2) Non-revolving consumer credit (NREV in Table VA-3) “includes automobile loans and all other loans not included in revolving credit, such as loans for mobile homes, education, boats, trailers or vacations” (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/default.htm). In Feb 2015, revolving credit was $885 billion, or 26.5 percent of total consumer credit of $3343 billion, and non-revolving credit was $2458 billion, or 73.5 percent of total consumer credit outstanding. Consumer credit grew at relatively high rates before the recession beginning in IVQ2007 (Dec) and extending to IIQ2009 (Jun) as dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research or NBER (http://www.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html). Percentage changes of consumer credit outstanding fell already in 2009. Rates were still negative in 2010 with decline of 1.0 percent in annual data and sharp decline of 7.6 percent in revolving credit. In IVQ 2013, total consumer credit grew at 5.4 percent with increase of revolving credit at 2.0 percent and increase of non-revolving credit at 6.7 percent. Growth continued in Feb 2015 with total credit at 5.6 percent, revolving at minus 5.0 percent and non-revolving at 9.4 percent.

Table VA-3, US, Consumer Credit Outstanding, SA, Annual Rate and Billions of Dollars

	Total ∆%	REV ∆%	NRV ∆%	Total $B	REV $B	NREV $B
2015
Feb	5.6	-5.0	9.4	3343	885	2458
Jan	3.9	-1.4	5.8	3328	889	2439
2014
Dec	6.7	9.0	5.9	3317	889	2428
IVQ	6.0	3.6	6.9	3317	889	2428
IIIQ	6.8	2.9	8.2	3268	882	2386
IIQ	8.2	6.3	9.0	3213	875	2338
IQ	6.5	1.8	8.3	3149	862	2287
2013
IVQ	5.4	2.0	6.7	3098	858	2240
2014	7.1	3.7	8.4	3317	889	2428
2013	6.0	1.3	7.9	3098	858	2240
2012	6.2	0.6	8.6	2924	847	2077
2011	4.1	0.2	5.9	2756	842	1914
2010	-1.0	-7.6	2.7	2647	840	1807
2009	-3.9	-8.8	-1.0	2553	917	1636
2008	1.3	0.2	2.0	2651	1005	1646
2007	5.9	8.5	4.3	2529	1008	1521

Note: REV: Revolving; NREV: Non-revolving; ∆%: simple annual rate from unrounded data; Total may not add exactly because of rounding

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/default.htm

Chart VA-6 of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System provides total consumer credit outstanding in millions of dollars measured in the right axis and the finance rate on 24-month personal loans at commercial banks, not seasonally adjusted, measured on the left axis. There was sharp decline of total consumer loans outstanding during the global recession followed by strong recovery. There is long-term decline with fluctuations of the financing rate.

Chart VA-6, US, Total Consumer Credit Owned and Securitized NSA and Financing Rate on 24-month Personal Loans at Commercial Banks NSA, Millions of Dollars and Percent, Feb 1972-Feb 2015

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/default.htm

Chart VA-7 of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System provides percentage changes of total consumer credit outstanding in the US and the financing rate on 24-month personal consumer loans at commercial banks, since 1972. The shaded bars are the cyclical contraction dates of the National Bureau of Economic Research (http://www.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html). Consumer credit is cyclical, declining during contractions as shown by negative percentage changes during economic contractions. There is clear upward trend in 2012-2013 but with significant fluctuations and vacillation in the final segment.

Chart VA-7, US, Percent Change of Total Consumer Credit, Seasonally Adjusted at an Annual Rate and Finance Rate on 24-month Personal Loans at Commercial Banks NSA, Feb 1972-Feb 2015

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/default.htm

VB Japan. The GDP of Japan grew at 1.0 percent per year on average from 1991 to 2002, with the GDP implicit deflator falling at 0.8 percent per year on average. The average growth rate of Japan’s GDP was 4 percent per year on average from the middle of the 1970s to 1992 (Ito 2004). Low growth in Japan in the 1990s is commonly labeled as “the lost decade” (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 81-115). Table VB-GDP provides yearly growth rates of Japan’s GDP from 1995 to 2014. Growth weakened from 1.9 per cent in 1995 and 2.6 percent in 1996 to contractions of 2.0 percent in 1998 and 0.2 percent in 1999. Growth rates were below 2 percent with exception of 2.3 percent in 2000, 2.4 percent in 2004 and 2.2 percent in 2007. Japan’s GDP contracted sharply by 1.0 percent in 2008 and 5.5 percent in 2009. As in most advanced economies, growth was robust at 4.7 percent in 2010 but mediocre at minus 0.5 percent in 2011 because of the tsunami and 1.8 percent in 2012. Japan’s GDP grew 1.6 percent in 2013 and stagnated in 2014. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). Japan’s real GDP in calendar year 2014 is 0.7 percent higher than in calendar year 2007 (http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html).

Table VB-GDP, Japan, Yearly Percentage Change of GDP  ∆%

Calendar Year	∆%
1995	1.9
1996	2.6
1997	1.6
1998	-2.0
1999	-0.2
2000	2.3
2001	0.4
2002	0.3
2003	1.7
2004	2.4
2005	1.3
2006	1.7
2007	2.2
2008	-1.0
2009	-5.5
2010	4.7
2011	-0.5
2012	1.8
2013	1.6
2014	0.0

Source: Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html

Table VB-BOJF provides the forecasts of economic activity and inflation in Japan by the majority of members of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, which is part of their Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k150121a.pdf) with changes on Jul 21, 2015 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k150121a.pdf). For fiscal 2014, the forecast is of growth of GDP between minus 0.7 to minus 0.3 percent, with the all items CPI less fresh food 2.9 to 3.3 percent (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k150121a.pdf). The critical difference is forecast of the CPI excluding fresh food of 0.3 to 1.4 percent in 2015 and 0.9 to 2.3 percent in 2016 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k150121a.pdf). Consumer price inflation in Japan excluding fresh food was minus 0.2 percent in Dec 2014 and 2.5 percent in 12 months (http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1581.htm), significantly because of the increase of the tax on value added of consumption in Apr 2014. The new monetary policy of the Bank of Japan aims to increase inflation to 2 percent. These forecasts are biannual in Apr and Oct. The Cabinet Office, Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan released on Jan 22, 2013, a “Joint Statement of the Government and the Bank of Japan on Overcoming Deflation and Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130122c.pdf) with the important change of increasing the inflation target of monetary policy from 1 percent to 2 percent:

“The Bank of Japan conducts monetary policy based on the principle that the policy shall be aimed at achieving price stability, thereby contributing to the sound development of the national economy, and is responsible for maintaining financial system stability. The Bank aims to achieve price stability on a sustainable basis, given that there are various factors that affect prices in the short run.

The Bank recognizes that the inflation rate consistent with price stability on a sustainable basis will rise as efforts by a wide range of entities toward strengthening competitiveness and growth potential of Japan's economy make progress. Based on this recognition, the Bank sets the price stability target at 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index.

Under the price stability target specified above, the Bank will pursue monetary easing and aim to achieve this target at the earliest possible time. Taking into consideration that it will take considerable time before the effects of monetary policy permeate the economy, the Bank will ascertain whether there is any significant risk to the sustainability of economic growth, including from the accumulation of financial imbalances.”

The Bank of Japan also provided explicit analysis of its view on price stability in a “Background note regarding the Bank’s thinking on price stability” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/data/rel130123a1.pdf http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130123a.htm/). The Bank of Japan also amended “Principal terms and conditions for the Asset Purchase Program” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130122a.pdf): “Asset purchases and loan provision shall be conducted up to the maximum outstanding amounts by the end of 2013. From January 2014, the Bank shall purchase financial assets and provide loans every month, the amount of which shall be determined pursuant to the relevant rules of the Bank.”

Financial markets in Japan and worldwide were shocked by new bold measures of “quantitative and qualitative monetary easing” by the Bank of Japan (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The objective of policy is to “achieve the price stability target of 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) at the earliest possible time, with a time horizon of about two years” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The main elements of the new policy are as follows:

1. Monetary Base Control. Most central banks in the world pursue interest rates instead of monetary aggregates, injecting bank reserves to lower interest rates to desired levels. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has shifted back to monetary aggregates, conducting money market operations with the objective of increasing base money, or monetary liabilities of the government, at the annual rate of 60 to 70 trillion yen. The BOJ estimates base money outstanding at “138 trillion yen at end-2012) and plans to increase it to “200 trillion yen at end-2012 and 270 trillion yen at end 2014” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
2. Maturity Extension of Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds. Purchases of bonds will be extended even up to bonds with maturity of 40 years with the guideline of extending the average maturity of BOJ bond purchases from three to seven years. The BOJ estimates the current average maturity of Japanese government bonds (JGB) at around seven years. The BOJ plans to purchase about 7.5 trillion yen per month (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130404d.pdf). Takashi Nakamichi, Tatsuo Ito and Phred Dvorak, wiring on “Bank of Japan mounts bid for revival,” on Apr 4, 2013, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323646604578401633067110420.html), find that the limit of maturities of three years on purchases of JGBs was designed to avoid views that the BOJ would finance uncontrolled government deficits.
3. Seigniorage. The BOJ is pursuing coordination with the government that will take measures to establish “sustainable fiscal structure with a view to ensuring the credibility of fiscal management” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
4. Diversification of Asset Purchases. The BOJ will engage in transactions of exchange traded funds (ETF) and real estate investment trusts (REITS) and not solely on purchases of JGBs. Purchases of ETFs will be at an annual rate of increase of one trillion yen and purchases of REITS at 30 billion yen.
5. Bank Lending Facility and Growth Supporting Funding Facility. At the meeting on Feb 18, the Bank of Japan doubled the scale of these lending facilities to prevent their expiration in the near future (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140218a.pdf).

Table VB-BOJF, Bank of Japan, Forecasts of the Majority of Members of the Policy Board, % Year on Year

Fiscal Year Date of Forecast	Real GDP	CPI All Items Less Fresh Food	Excluding Effects of Consumption Tax Hikes
2013
Apr 2014	+2.2 to +2.3 [+2.2]	+0.8
Jan 2014	+2.5 to +2.9 [+2.7]	+0.7 to +0.9 [+0.7]
Oct 2013	+2.6 to +3.0 [+2.7]	+0.6 to +1.0 [+0.7]
Jul 2013	+2.5 to +3.0 [+2.8]	+0.5 to +0.8 [+0.6]
2014
Jan 2015	-0.6 to -0.4 [-0.5]	+2.9 to +3.2 [+2.9]	+0.9 to +1.2 [+0.9]
Oct 2014	+0.2 to +0.7 [+0.5]	+3.1 to +3.4 [+3.2]	+1.1 to +1.4 [+1.2]
Jul 2014	+0.6 to +1.3 [+1.0]	+3.2 to +3.5 [+3.3]	+1.2 to +1.5 [+1.3]
Apr 2014	+0.8 to +1.3 [+1.1]	+3.0 to +3.5 [+3.3]	+1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3]
Jan 2014	+0.9 to 1.5 [+1.4]	+2.9 to +3.6 [+3.3]	+0.9 to +1.6 [+1.3]
Oct 2013	+0.9 to +1.5 [+1.5]	+2.8 to +3.6 [+3.3]	+0.8 to +1.6 [+1.3]
Jul 2013	+0.8 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+2.7 to +3.6 [+3.3]	+0.7 to +1.6 [+1.3]
2015
Jan 2015	+1.8 to +2.3 [+2.1]	+0.4 to +1.3 [+1.0]	+0.4 to +1.3 [+1.0]
Oct 2014	+1.2 to +1.7 [+1.5]	+1.8 to 2.6 [+2.4]	+1.1 to +1.9 [+1.7]
Jul 2014	+1.2 to +1.6 [+1.5]	+1.9 to +2.8 [+2.6]	+1.2 to +2.1 [+1.9]
Apr 2014	+1.2 to +1.5 [+1.5]	+1.9 to +2.8 [+2.6]	+1.2 to +2.1 [+1.9]
Jan 2014	+1.2 to +1.8 [+1.5]	+1.7 to +2.9 [+2.6]	+1.0 to +2.2 [+1.9]
Oct 2013	+1.3 to +1.8 [+1.5]	+1.6 to +2.9 [+2.6]	+0.9 to +2.2 [+1.9]
Jul 2013	+1.3 to +1.9 [+1.5]	+1.6 to +2.9 [+2.6]	+0.9 to +2.2 [+1.9]
2016
Jan 2015	+1.5 to +1.7 [+1.6]	+1.5 to +2.3 [+2.2]	+1.5 to +2.3 [+2.2]
Oct 2014	+1.0 to +1.4 [+1.2]	+1.9 to 3.0 [+2.8]	+1.2 to 2.3 [+2.1]
Jul 2014	+1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+2.0 to +3.0 [+2.8]	+1.3 to +2.3 [+2.1]
Apr 2014	+1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+2.0 to +3.0 [+2.8]	+1.3 to +2.3 [+2.1]

Figures in brackets are the median of forecasts of Policy Board members

Source: Policy Board, Bank of Japan

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k150121a.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140715a.pdf

The Markit/JMMA Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI Index™ with the Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI™ decreased from 51.6 in Feb to 50.4 in Mar and the Flash Japan Manufacturing Output Index™ decreased from 53.5 in Feb to 52.0 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f8c440b1bcca4e76b3f2d6ec4a5d3e37). New export orders increased at slower pace. Amy Brownbill, Economist at Markit, finds weaker improvement in Japan’s manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f8c440b1bcca4e76b3f2d6ec4a5d3e37). The Markit Composite Output PMI Index decreased from 50.0 in Feb to 48.4 in Mar, indicating mildly deteriorating business activity (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/74103110a2a2461e922e8e3112487235). The Markit Business Activity Index of Services decreased to 48.4 in Mar from 48.5 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/74103110a2a2461e922e8e3112487235). Amy Brownbill, Ecoomist at Markit and author of the report, finds weak current conditions with positive business expectations (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/74103110a2a2461e922e8e3112487235). The Markit/JMMA Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI™), seasonally adjusted, decreased from 51.6 in Feb to 50.3 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b911afd82d224220a79b04adddf770f4). New orders declined while foreign orders increased. Amy Brownbill, Economist at Markit, finds manufacturing improvement with increasing foreign orders influenced by devaluation of the yen (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b911afd82d224220a79b04adddf770f4).Table JPY provides the country data table for Japan.

Table JPY, Japan, Economic Indicators

Historical GDP and CPI	1981-2010 Real GDP Growth and CPI Inflation 1981-2010 Blog 8/9/11 Table 26
Corporate Goods Prices	Feb ∆% 0.0 12 months ∆% 0.5 Blog 3/15/15
Consumer Price Index	Feb NSA ∆% -0.2; Feb 12 months NSA ∆% 2.2 Blog 3/29/15
Real GDP Growth	IVQ2014 ∆%: 0.4 on IIIQ2014;  IVQ2014 SAAR 1.5; ∆% from quarter a year earlier: -0.8 % Blog 6/16/13 8/18/13 9/15/13 11/17/13 12/15/13 2/23/14 3/16/14 5/18/14 6/15/14 8/17/14 9/14/14 11/23/14 12/14/14 2/22/15 3/15/15
Employment Report	Feb Unemployed 2.26 million Change in unemployed since last year: minus 60 thousand Unemployment rate: 3.5 % Blog 3/29/15
All Industry Indices	Jan month SA ∆% 1.9 12-month NSA ∆% -1.7 Blog 3/22/15
Industrial Production	Feb SA month ∆%: -3.4 12-month NSA ∆% -2.6 Blog 3/29/15
Machine Orders	Total Jan ∆% 814.2 Private ∆%: 10.7 Jan ∆% Excluding Volatile Orders minus 1.7 Blog 3/22/15
Tertiary Index	Jan month SA ∆% 1.4 Jan 12 months NSA ∆% minus -1.5 Blog 3/22/15
Wholesale and Retail Sales	Feb 12 months: Total ∆%: -3.1 Wholesale ∆%: -3.7 Retail ∆%: -1.8 Blog 3/29/15
Family Income and Expenditure Survey	Feb 12-month ∆% total nominal consumption -0.4, real -2.9 Blog 3/29/15
Trade Balance	Exports Feb 12 months ∆%: 12.4 Imports Feb 12 months ∆% -3.6 Blog 3/22/15

Links to blog comments in Table JPY:

3/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html

3/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

2/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html

12/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/global-financial-and-economic-risk.html

11/23/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.htm

9/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitics-monetary-policy-and.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

6/15/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financialgeopolitical-risks-recovery.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html

2/23/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html

12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

VC China. China estimates an index of nonmanufacturing purchasing managers based on a sample of 1200 nonmanufacturing enterprises across the country (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Table CIPMNM provides this index and components. The total index increased from 55.7 in Jan 2011 to 58.0 in Mar 2012, decreasing to 53.9 in Aug 2013. The index decreased from 56.0 in Nov 2013 to 54.6 in Dec 2013, easing to 53.4 in Jan 2014. The index moved to 53.7 in Mar 2015. The index of new orders increased from 52.2 in Jan 2012 to 54.3 in Dec 2012 but fell to 50.1 in May 2013, barely above the neutral frontier of 50.0. The index of new orders stabilized at 51.0 in Nov-Dec 2013, easing to 50.9 in Jan 2014. The index of new orders moved to 50.3 in Mar 2015.

Table CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted

	Total Index	New Orders	Interm. Input Prices	Subs Prices	Exp
Mar 2015	53.7	50.3	50.0	48.4	58.8
Feb	53.9	51.2	52.5	51.2	58.7
Jan	53.7	50.2	47.6	46.9	59.6
Dec 2014	54.1	50.5	50.1	47.3	59.5
Nov	53.9	50.1	50.6	47.7	59.7
Oct	53.8	51.0	52.0	48.8	59.9
Sep	54.0	49.5	49.8	47.3	60.9
Aug	54.4	50.0	52.2	48.3	61.2
Jul	54.2	50.7	53.4	49.5	61.5
Jun	55.0	50.7	56.0	50.8	60.4
May	55.5	52.7	54.5	49.0	60.7
Apr	54.8	50.8	52.4	49.4	61.5
Mar	54.5	50.8	52.8	49.5	61.5
Feb	55.0	51.4	52.1	49.0	59.9
Jan	53.4	50.9	54.5	50.1	58.1
Dec 2013	54.6	51.0	56.9	52.0	58.7
Nov	56.0	51.0	54.8	49.5	61.3
Oct	56.3	51.6	56.1	51.4	60.5
Sep	55.4	53.4	56.7	50.6	60.1
Aug	53.9	50.9	57.1	51.2	62.9
Jul	54.1	50.3	58.2	52.4	63.9
Jun	53.9	50.3	55.0	50.6	61.8
May	54.3	50.1	54.4	50.7	62.9
Apr	54.5	50.9	51.1	47.6	62.5
Mar	55.6	52.0	55.3	50.0	62.4
Feb	54.5	51.8	56.2	51.1	62.7
Jan	56.2	53.7	58.2	50.9	61.4
Dec 2012	56.1	54.3	53.8	50.0	64.6
Nov	55.6	53.2	52.5	48.4	64.6
Oct	55.5	51.6	58.1	50.5	63.4
Sep	53.7	51.8	57.5	51.3	60.9
Aug	56.3	52.7	57.6	51.2	63.2
Jul	55.6	53.2	49.7	48.7	63.9
Jun	56.7	53.7	52.1	48.6	65.5
May	55.2	52.5	53.6	48.5	65.4
Apr	56.1	52.7	57.9	50.3	66.1
Mar	58.0	53.5	60.2	52.0	66.6
Feb	57.3	52.7	59.0	51.2	63.8
Jan	55.7	52.2	58.2	51.1	65.3

Notes: Interm.: Intermediate; Subs: Subscription; Exp: Business Expectations

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart CIPMNM provides China’s nonmanufacturing purchasing managers’ index. The index fell from 56.0 in Oct 2013 to 53.7 in Mar 2015.

Chart CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Table CIPMMFG provides the index of purchasing managers of manufacturing seasonally adjusted of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The general index (IPM) rose from 50.5 in Jan 2012 to 53.3 in Apr 2012, falling to 49.2 in Aug 2012, rebounding to 50.6 in Dec 2012. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013, barely above the neutral frontier at 50.0, recovering to 51.4 in Nov 2013 but falling to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.5 in Jan 2014, 50.1 in Dec 2014 and 50.1 in Mar 2015. The index of new orders fell from 54.5 in Apr 2012 to 51.2 in Dec 2012. The index of new orders fell from 52.3 in Nov 2013 to 52.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.9 in Jan 2014 and moved to 50.4 in Dec 2014. The index moved to 50.2 in Mar 2015.

Table CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted

	IPM	PI	NOI	INV	EMP	SDEL
2015
Mar	50.1	52.1	50.2	48.0	48.4	50.1
Feb	49.9	51.4	50.4	48.2	47.8	49.9
Jan	49.8	51.7	50.2	47.3	47.9	50.2
2014
Dec	50.1	52.2	50.4	47.5	48.1	49.9
Nov	50.3	52.5	50.9	47.7	48.2	50.3
Oct	50.8	53.1	51.6	48.4	48.4	50.1
Sep	51.1	53.6	52.2	48.8	48.2	50.1
Aug	51.1	53.2	52.5	48.6	48.2	50.0
Jul	51.7	54.2	53.6	49.0	48.3	50.2
Jun	51.0	53.0	52.8	48.0	48.6	50.5
May	50.8	52.8	52.3	48.0	48.2	50.3
Apr	50.4	52.5	51.2	48.1	48.3	50.1
Mar	50.3	52.7	50.6	47.8	48.3	49.8
Feb	50.2	52.6	50.5	47.4	48.0	49.9
Jan	50.5	53.0	50.9	47.8	48.2	49.8
Dec 2013	51.0	53.9	52.0	47.6	48.7	50.5
Nov	51.4	54.5	52.3	47.8	49.6	50.6
Oct	51.4	54.4	52.5	48.6	49.2	50.8
Sep	51.1	52.9	52.8	48.5	49.1	50.8
Aug	51.0	52.6	52.4	48.0	49.3	50.4
Jul	50.3	52.4	50.6	47.6	49.1	50.1
Jun	50.1	52.0	50.4	47.4	48.7	50.3
May	50.8	53.3	51.8	47.6	48.8	50.8
Apr	50.6	52.6	51.7	47.5	49.0	50.8
Mar	50.9	52.7	52.3	47.5	49.8	51.1
Feb	50.1	51.2	50.1	49.5	47.6	48.3
Jan	50.4	51.3	51.6	50.1	47.8	50.0
Dec 2012	50.6	52.0	51.2	47.3	49.0	48.8
Nov	50.6	52.5	51.2	47.9	48.7	49.9
Oct	50.2	52.1	50.4	47.3	49.2	50.1
Sep	49.8	51.3	49.8	47.0	48.9	49.5
Aug	49.2	50.9	48.7	45.1	49.1	50.0
Jul	50.1	51.8	49.0	48.5	49.5	49.0
Jun	50.2	52.0	49.2	48.2	49.7	49.1
May	50.4	52.9	49.8	45.1	50.5	49.0
Apr	53.3	57.2	54.5	48.5	51.0	49.6
Mar	53.1	55.2	55.1	49.5	51.0	48.9
Feb	51.0	53.8	51.0	48.8	49.5	50.3
Jan	50.5	53.6	50.4	49.7	47.1	49.7

IPM: Index of Purchasing Managers; PI: Production Index; NOI: New Orders Index; EMP: Employed Person Index; SDEL: Supplier Delivery Time Index

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

China estimates the manufacturing index of purchasing managers on the basis of a sample of 820 enterprises (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Chart CIPMMFG provides the manufacturing index of purchasing managers. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013. The index decreased from 51.4 in Nov 2013 to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index moved to 50.1 in Mar 2015.

Chart CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Cumulative growth of China’s GDP in IVQ2014 relative to the same period in 2013 was 7.4 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDP. Secondary industry accounts for 42.6 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2014. In cumulative IVQ2014, industry accounts for 35.8 percent of GDP and construction for 7.0 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 48.2 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2014 and primary industry for 9.2 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is shifting to lower growth rates with improvement in living standards. The bottom block of Table VC-GDP provides quarter-on-quarter growth rates of GDP and their annual equivalent. China’s GDP growth decelerated significantly from annual equivalent 10.4 percent in IIQ2011 to 7.4 percent in IVQ2011 and 5.7 percent in IQ2012, rebounding to 8.7 percent in IIQ2012, 8.2 percent in IIIQ2012 and 7.8 percent in IVQ2012. Annual equivalent growth in IQ2013 fell to 7.0 percent and to 7.4 percent in IIQ2013, rebounding to 9.5 percent in IIIQ2013. Annual equivalent growth was 7.4 percent in IVQ2013, declining to 6.6 percent in IQ2014 and increasing to 7.8 percent in IIQ2014. Annual equivalent growth slowed to 7.8 percent in IIIQ2014 and 6.1 percent in IVQ2014.

Table VC-GDP, China, Quarterly Growth of GDP, Current CNY 100 Million and Inflation Adjusted ∆%

Cumulative GDP IVQ2014	Value Current CNY Billion	2014 Year-on-Year Constant Prices ∆%
GDP	63,646.3	7.4
Primary Industry	5833.2	4.1
Farming	6015.1	4.2
Secondary Industry	27,139.2	7.3
Industry	22,799.1	7.0
Construction	4472.5	8.9
Tertiary Industry	30,673.9	8.1
Transport, Storage, Post	2875.0	7.0
Wholesale, Retail Trades	6221.6	9.5
Accommodation and Restaurants	1119.9	6.2
Finance	4695.4	10.2
Real Estate	3816.7	2.3
Other	11631.1	8.8
Growth in Quarter Relative to Prior Quarter	∆% on Prior Quarter	∆% Annual Equivalent
2014
IVQ2014	1.5	6.1
IIIQ2014	1.9	7.8
IIQ2014	1.9	7.8
IQ2014	1.6	6.6
2013
IVQ2013	1.8	7.4
IIIQ2013	2.3	9.5
IIQ2013	1.8	7.4
IQ2013	1.7	7.0
2012
IVQ2012	1.9	7.8
IIIQ2012	2.0	8.2
IIQ2012	2.1	8.7
IQ2012	1.4	5.7
2011
IVQ2011	1.8	7.4
IIIQ2011	2.2	9.1
IIQ2011	2.5	10.4
IQ2011	2.3	9.5

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Growth of China’s GDP in IVQ2014 relative to the same period in 2013 was 7.3 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDPA. Secondary industry accounts for 42.6 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2014. In cumulative IVQ2014, industry accounts for 35.8 percent of GDP and construction for 7.0 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 48.2 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2014 and primary industry for 9.2 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is changing to lower growth rates while improving living standards. GDP growth decelerated from 12.1 percent in IQ2010 and 11.2 percent in IIQ2010 to 7.8 percent in IQ2013, 7.5 percent in IIQ2013 and 7.9 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP grew 7.6 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to IIIQ2013, which is equivalent to 7.4 percent per year. GDP grew 7.4 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.6 percent in IQ2014 that is equivalent to 6.6 percent per year. GP grew 7.5 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.9 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is equivalent 7.8 percent. In IIIQ2014, GDP grew 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier and 1.9 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is 7.8 percent in annual equivalent. GDP grew 1.5 percent in IVQ2014, which is 6.1 percent in annual equivalent and 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier.

Table VC-GDPA, China, Growth Rate of GDP, ∆% Relative to a Year Earlier and ∆% Relative to Prior Quarter

	IQ 2013	IIQ 2013	IIIQ 2013	IVQ 2013	IQ 2014	IIQ 2014	IIIQ 2014	IVQ 2014
GDP	7.8	7.5	7.9	7.6	7.4	7.5	7.3	7.3
Primary Industry	3.4	3.0	3.4	4.0	3.5	3.9	4.2	4.1
Secondary Industry	7.8	7.6	7.8	7.8	7.3	7.4	7.4	7.3
Tertiary Industry	8.3	8.3	8.4	8.3	7.1	8.0	7.9	8.1
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.7	1.8	2.3	1.8	1.6	1.9	1.9	1.5
	IQ 2011	IIQ 2011	IIIQ 2011	IVQ 2011	IQ  2012	IIQ 2012	IIIQ 2012	IVQ 2012
GDP	9.7	9.5	9.1	8.9	8.1	7.6	7.4	7.9
Primary Industry	3.5	3.2	3.8	4.5	3.8	4.3	4.2	4.5
Secondary Industry	11.1	11.0	10.8	10.6	9.1	8.3	8.1	8.1
Tertiary Industry	9.1	9.2	9.0	8.9	7.5	7.7	7.9	8.1
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	2.3	2.5	2.2	1.8	1.4	2.1	2.0	1.9
	IQ 2010	IIQ 2010	IIIQ 2010	IVQ 2010
GDP	12.1	11.2	10.7	12.1
Primary Industry	3.8	3.6	4.0	3.8
Secondary Industry	14.5	13.3	12.6	14.5
Tertiary Industry	10.5	9.9	9.7	10.5

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart VC-GDP of the National Bureau of Statistics of China provides annual value and growth rates of GDP. China’s GDP growth in 2013 is still high at 7.7 percent but at the lowest rhythm in five years.

Chart VC-GDP, China, Gross Domestic Product, Million Yuan and ∆%, 2009-2013

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart VC-FXR provides China’s foreign exchange reserves. FX reserves grew from $2399.2 billion in 2009 to $3821.3 billion in 2013 driven by high growth of China’s trade surplus.

Chart VC-FXR, China, Foreign Exchange Reserves, 2009-2013

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Chart VC-Trade provides China’s imports and exports. Exports exceeded imports with resulting large trade balance surpluses that increased foreign exchange reserves.

Chart VC-Trade, China, Imports and Exports of Goods, 2009-2013, $100 Million US Dollars

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) compiled by Markit (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/36e42fb4a12a4d8f94bf449e38ef2b2e) is weakening. The overall Flash HSBC China Manufacturing PMI^™ decreased from 50.7 in Feb to 49.2 in Mar, while the Flash HSBC China Manufacturing Output Index decreased from 51.7 in Feb to 50.8 in Mar, indicating moderate growth. Exports orders indicate contraction. Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds moderate deterioration in manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/36e42fb4a12a4d8f94bf449e38ef2b2e). The HSBC China Services PMI^™, compiled by Markit, shows the HSBC Composite Output, combining manufacturing and services, unchanged from 51.8 in Feb to 51.8 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/9a0545fb09ca43af984c9e78444837d5). Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds modest output growth (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/9a0545fb09ca43af984c9e78444837d5). The HSBC China Services Business Activity index increased from 52.0 in Feb to 52.3 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/9a0545fb09ca43af984c9e78444837d5). Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds that the services PMI shows sustained activity at modest pace (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/9a0545fb09ca43af984c9e78444837d5). The HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™), compiled by Markit, decreased to 49.6 in Mar from 50.7 in Feb, indicating moderate deterioration in manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/2c31cfa7df914ac09be4c0b5d1da2988). New export orders declined modestly. Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds weak internal and external demand (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/2c31cfa7df914ac09be4c0b5d1da2988). Table CNY provides the country data table for China.

Table CNY, China, Economic Indicators

Price Indexes for Industry	Mar 12-month ∆%: minus 4.6 Mar month ∆%: -0.1 Blog 4/12/15
Consumer Price Index	Mar 12-month ∆%: 1.4 Feb month ∆%: -0.5 Blog 4/12/15
Value Added of Industry	Feb month ∆%: 0.45 Jan-Feb 2015/Jan-Feb 2014 ∆%: 6.8 Blog 3/15/15
GDP Growth Rate	Year IVQ2014 ∆%: 7.3 First Four Quarters 2014 ∆%: 7.4 Quarter IIIQ2014 AE ∆%: 6.1 Blog 1/25/15
Investment in Fixed Assets	Total Jan-Feb 2015 ∆%: 13.9 Real estate development: 10.4 Blog 3/15/15
Retail Sales	Feb month ∆%: 1.01 Jan-Feb 12 month ∆%: NA Jan-Feb ∆%: 0.03 Blog 3/15/15
Trade Balance	Feb balance $60.62 billion Exports 12M ∆% 48.3 Imports 12M ∆% -20.5 Cumulative Feb 2015: $120.5 billion Blog 3/15/15

Links to blog comments in Table CNY:

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

1/25/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/01/competitive-currency-conflicts-world.html

VD Euro Area. Table VD-EUR provides yearly growth rates of the combined GDP of the members of the European Monetary Union (EMU) or euro area since 1999. Growth was very strong at 3.3 percent in 2006 and 3.1 percent in 2007. The global recession had strong impact with growth of only 0.5 percent in 2008 and decline of 4.5 percent in 2009. Recovery was at lower growth rates of 2.0 percent in 2010 and 1.6 percent in 2011. EUROSTAT estimates growth of GDP of the euro area of minus 0.8 percent in 2012 and minus 0.4 percent in 2013 but 0.9 percent in 2014.

Table VD-EUR, Euro Area, Yearly Percentage Change of Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, Unemployment and GDP ∆%

Year	HICP ∆%	Unemployment %	GDP ∆%
1999	1.2	9.7	2.9
2000	2.2	8.8	3.8
2001	2.4	8.3	2.1
2002	2.3	8.6	0.9
2003	2.1	9.1	0.7
2004	2.2	9.3	2.2
2005	2.2	9.1	1.7
2006	2.2	8.4	3.3
2007	2.2	7.5	3.1
2008	3.3	7.6	0.5
2009	0.3	9.6	-4.5
2010	1.6	10.2	2.0
2011	2.7	10.2	1.6
2012	2.5	11.4	-0.8
2013	1.3	12.0	-0.4
2014	0.4	11.6	0.9

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

The GDP of the euro area in 2013 in current US dollars in the dataset of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is $12,753.7 billion or 17.1 percent of world GDP of $74,699.3 billion (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/weodata/weoselgr.aspx). The sum of the GDP of France $2807.3 billion with the GDP of Germany of $3635.9 billion, Italy of $2071.9 billion and Spain $1358.7 billion is $9873.8 billion or 77.4 percent of total euro area GDP and 13.2 percent of World GDP. The four largest economies account for slightly more than three quarters of economic activity of the euro area. Table VD-EUR1 is constructed with the dataset of EUROSTAT, providing growth rates of the euro area as a whole and of the largest four economies of Germany, France, Italy and Spain annually from 1996 to 2014. The impact of the global recession on the overall euro area economy and on the four largest economies was quite strong. There was sharp contraction in 2009 and growth rates have not rebounded to earlier growth with exception of Germany in 2010 and 2011.

Table VD-EUR1, Euro Area, Real GDP Growth Rate, ∆%

	Euro Area	Germany	France	Italy	Spain
2014	0.9	1.6	0.4	-0.4	1.4
2013	-0.4	0.1	0.3	-1.7	-1.2
2012	-0.8	0.4	0.3	-2.8	-2.1
2011	1.6	3.6	2.1	0.6	-0.6
2010	2.0	4.1	2.0	1.7	0.0
2009	-4.5	-5.6	-2.9	-5.5	-3.6
2008	0.5	1.1	0.2	-1.0	1.1
2007	3.1	3.3	2.4	1.5	3.8
2006	3.3	3.7	2.4	2.0	4.2
2005	1.7	0.7	1.6	0.9	3.7
2004	2.2	1.2	2.8	1.6	3.2
2003	0.7	-0.7	0.8	0.2	3.2
2002	0.9	0.0	1.1	0.3	2.9
2001	2.1	1.7	2.0	1.8	4.0
2000	3.8	3.0	3.9	3.7	5.3
1999	2.9	2.0	3.4	1.6	4.5
1998	2.9	2.0	3.6	1.4	4.3
1997	2.6	1.8	2.3	1.8	3.7
1996	1.6	0.8	1.4	1.3	2.7

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

The Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index of the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI^®, combining activity in manufacturing and services, increased from 53.3 in Feb to 54.1 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f969e097835f4ead892757c62f709814). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds that the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI index suggests GDP growth at around 0.3 percent in IQ2015 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f969e097835f4ead892757c62f709814). The Markit Eurozone PMI^® Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing activity with close association with GDP increased from 53.3 in Feb to 54.0 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/3de234401ab34b9fa89ccae8af205624). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds slowing growth of GDP at around 0.3 percent in IQ2015 with improved prospects in coming months (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/3de234401ab34b9fa89ccae8af205624). The Markit Eurozone Services Business Activity Index increased from 53.7 in Feb to 54.2 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/3de234401ab34b9fa89ccae8af205624). The Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI^® increased from 51.0 in Feb to 51.9 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/75a84292bf394732a98dc4a53cad080c). New export orders increased. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds improvement of industrial growth in the euro area (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/75a84292bf394732a98dc4a53cad080c

Table EUR, Euro Area Economic Indicators

GDP	IVQ2014 ∆% 0.3; IVQ2014/IVQ2013 ∆% 0.9 Blog 3/15/15
Unemployment	Feb 2015: 11.3 % unemployment rate; Feb 2015: 18.204 million unemployed Blog 4/5/15
HICP	Feb month ∆%: 0.6 12 months Feb ∆%: -0.3 Blog 3/22/15
Producer Prices	Euro Zone industrial producer prices Feb ∆%: 0.5 Feb 12-month ∆%: -2.8 Blog 4/12/15
Industrial Production	Dec month ∆%: 0.0; Dec 12 months ∆%: -0.2 Blog 2/15/15
Retail Sales	Feb month ∆%: -0.2 Feb 12 months ∆%: 3.0 Blog 4/12/15
Confidence and Economic Sentiment Indicator	Sentiment 103.9 Mar 2015 Consumer minus 3.7 Mar 2015 Blog 4/5/15
Trade	Jan-Dec 2014/Jan-Dec 2013 Exports ∆%: 2.2 Imports ∆%: 0.1 Jan 2015 12-month Exports ∆% -0.4 Imports ∆% minus 5.6 Blog 3/22/15

Links to blog comments in Table EUR:

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

Retail sales in the euro zone decreased 0.2 percent in Feb 2015 and increased 3.0 percent in 12 months, as shown in Table VD-1. The 12-month rates of growth became negative between Mar 2011 and Dec 2013 with exception of 0.6 percent in Apr 2011, 0.0 percent in Mar 2012 and 1.5 percent in Nov 2013. The lower part of Table VD-3 provides annual percentage changes of inflation-adjusted retail sales in the euro zone since 2001. Retail sales fell 0.6 percent in 2010 after falling 0.6 percent in 2009 and 1.8 percent in 2008 and fell again by 1.9 percent in 2011 and 2.6 percent in 2012. Retail sales changed 0.0 percent in 2013 and increased 3.2 percent in 2014.

Table VD-1, Euro Zone, Volume of Retail Sales, Deflated ∆%

	Month ∆%	12-Month CA ∆%
Feb 2015	-0.2	3.0
Jan	0.9	3.2
Dec 2014	0.6	3.2
Nov	0.5	1.4
Oct	0.5	1.5
Sep	-0.9	0.4
Aug	0.7	1.5
Jul	-0.3	0.6
Jun	0.4	2.0
May	0.2	0.6
Apr	0.1	1.7
Mar	0.1	1.0
Feb	0.3	1.1
Jan	1.1	0.8
Dec 2013	-1.4	0.0
Nov	1.1	1.5
Oct	-0.4	-0.4
Sep	-0.2	-0.2
Aug	-0.2	-0.3
Jul	1.0	-0.9
Jun	-1.0	-1.7
May	1.1	-0.2
Apr	-0.1	-1.3
Mar	-0.1	-2.4
Feb	-0.1	-2.2
Jan	0.5	-2.2
Dec 2012	-0.3	-2.6
Nov	-0.4	-1.9
Oct	-0.2	-3.0
Sep	-1.0	-1.9
Aug	-0.3	-0.7
Jul	0.1	-1.4
Jun	0.4	-0.9
May	0.3	-0.6
Apr	-1.5	-3.5
Mar	0.4	0.0
Feb	0.1	-2.2
Jan	-0.3	-0.8
Dec 2011	0.2	-1.9
Nov	-0.8	-1.5
Oct	0.2	-0.8
Sep	0.0	-1.3
Aug	-0.5	-0.2
Jul	0.3	-0.6
Jun	0.9	-0.9
May	-2.0	-1.8
Apr	1.3	0.6
Mar	-1.5	-1.5
Feb	1.0	1.2
Jan	-0.4	0.5
Dec ∆%
2014		3.2
2013		0.0
2012		-2.6
2011		-1.9
2010		-0.6
2009		-0.6
2008		-1.8
2007		-0.9
2006		2.3
2005		1.1
2004		2.3
2003		0.7
2002		-0.2
2001		1.9

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

Growth rates of retail sales of the euro zone by major segments are in Table VD-2. Total sales decreased 1.2 percent in Feb 2015 and increased 3.0 percent in the 12 months ending in

Feb 2015. Food sales decreased 0.8 percent in Feb 2015 and increased 1.0 percent in 12 months and sales of nonfood products increased 0.1 percent in Feb and increased 4.3 percent in 12 months. Sales of automotive fuel stores decreased 0.4 percent in Feb and increased 4.2 percent in 12 months.

Table VD-2, Euro Zone, Volume of Retail Sales by Products, ∆%

Feb 2015	Month ∆%	12-Month ∆%
Total	-0.2	3.0
Food, Drinks, Tobacco	-0.8	1.0
Nonfood Products ex Automotive Fuel	0.1	4.3
Automotive Fuel in Specialized Stores	-0.4	4.2

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

Month and 12-month percentage rates of change of retail sales by member countries of the euro zone are shown in Table VD-3 for Feb 2015. Retail sales are mixed throughout the euro zone. The 12-month percentage changes are positive for several members in Table VD-3 such as 3.9 percent for France, 5.1 percent Ireland, 3.6 percent Germany and 2.0 percent for Portugal. The 12-month percentage change for the UK, which is not a member of the euro zone, was 5.0 percent. The European Union’s 12-month percentage change was 3.6 percent.

Table VD-3, Euro Zone, Volume of Retail Sales by Member Countries, ∆%

Feb 2015	Month ∆%	12-Month ∆%
Euro Zone	-0.2	3.0
Germany	-0.5	3.6
France	0.0	3.9
Netherlands	0.3*	2.3*
Finland	0.5	0.4
Belgium	-0.2	1.2
Portugal	-1.2	2.0
Ireland	0.8	5.1
Italy	0.3*	2.5*
Greece	0.3*	-0.1*
Spain	-0.7	2.7
UK	0.8	5.0
European Union	0.0	3.6

*Jan 2015

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

VE Germany. Table VE-DE provides yearly growth rates of the German economy from 1971 to 2014, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked. Germany’s GDP fell 5.6 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.1 percent in 2008. Recovery has been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.1 percent in 2010, 3.6 percent in 2011 and 0.4 percent in 2012. Growth decelerated to 0.1 percent in 2013, increasing to 1.6 percent in 2014.

The Federal Statistical Agency of Germany analyzes the fall and recovery of the German economy (http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Content/Statistics/VolkswirtschaftlicheGesamtrechnungen/Inlandsprodukt/Aktuell,templateId=renderPrint.psml):

“The German economy again grew strongly in 2011. The price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.0% compared with the previous year. Accordingly, the catching-up process of the German economy continued during the second year after the economic crisis. In the course of 2011, the price-adjusted GDP again exceeded its pre-crisis level. The economic recovery occurred mainly in the first half of 2011. In 2009, Germany experienced the most serious post-war recession, when GDP suffered a historic decline of 5.1%. The year 2010 was characterised by a rapid economic recovery (+3.7%).”

Table VE-DE, Germany, GDP ∆% on Prior Year

	Price Adjusted Chain-Linked	Price- and Calendar-Adjusted Chain Linked
Average ∆% 1991-2014	1.3
Average ∆% 1991-1999	1.5
Average ∆% 2000-2007	1.4
Average ∆% 2003-2007	2.2
Average ∆% 2007-2014	0.7
Average ∆% 2009-2014	1.9
2014	1.6	1.6
2013	0.1	0.2
2012	0.4	0.6
2011	3.6	3.7
2010	4.1	3.9
2009	-5.6	-5.6
2008	1.1	0.8
2007	3.3	3.4
2006	3.7	3.9
2005	0.7	0.9
2004	1.2	0.7
2003	-0.7	-0.7
2002	0.0	0.0
2001	1.7	1.8
2000	3.0	3.2
1999	2.0	1.9
1998	2.0	1.7
1997	1.8	1.9
1996	0.8	0.8
1995	1.7	1.8
1994	2.5	2.5
1993	-1.0	-1.0
1992	1.9	1.5
1991	5.1	5.2
1990	5.3	5.5
1989	3.9	4.0
1988	3.7	3.4
1987	1.4	1.3
1986	2.3	2.3
1985	2.3	2.3
1984	2.8	2.9
1983	1.6	1.5
1982	-0.4	-0.5
1981	0.5	0.6
1980	1.4	1.3
1979	4.2	4.3
1978	3.0	3.1
1977	3.3	3.5
1976	4.9	4.5
1975	-0.9	-0.9
1974	0.9	1.0
1973	4.8	5.0
1972	4.3	4.3
1971	3.1	3.0
1970	NA	NA

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/NationalAccounts.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/DomesticProduct/CurrentRevision.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Methods/NationalAccountRevision/Revision2014_BackgroundPaper.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/02/PE14_048_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/08/PE13_278_811.html https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/11/PE13_381_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/01/PE14_016_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/DE/PresseService/Presse/Pressekonferenzen/2014/BIP2013/Pressebroschuere_BIP2013.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/05/PE14_167_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/09/PE14_306_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/11/PE14_401_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_048_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_61_811.html

The Flash Germany Composite Output Index of the Markit Flash Germany PMI^®, combining manufacturing and services, increased from 53.8 in Feb to 55.3 in Mar. The index of manufacturing output reached 55.4 in Mar, increasing from 52.2 in Feb, while the index of services increased to 55.3 in Mar from 54.7 in Feb. The overall Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI^® increased from 51.1 in Feb to 52.4 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/31e96b11367c46a5b06c787875c28812). New orders in manufacturing expanded. Oliver Kolodseike, Economist at Markit, finds improving GDP growth (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/31e96b11367c46a5b06c787875c28812). The Markit Germany Composite Output Index of the Markit Germany Services PMI^®, combining manufacturing and services with close association with Germany’s GDP, increased from 53.8 in Feb to 55.4 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/126dd4b9c0244796bf59910d40f88ef8). Oliver Kolodseike, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds improvement in 2015 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/126dd4b9c0244796bf59910d40f88ef8). The Germany Services Business Activity Index increased from 54.7 in Feb to 55.4 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/126dd4b9c0244796bf59910d40f88ef8). The Markit/BME Germany Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®), showing close association with Germany’s manufacturing conditions, increased from 51.1 in Feb to 52.8 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d6d0b52b742b427f9b808a09fd84eb80). New export orders increased. Oliver Kolodseike, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds improvement of manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d6d0b52b742b427f9b808a09fd84eb80).Table DE provides the country data table for Germany.

Table DE, Germany, Economic Indicators

GDP	IVQ2014 0.7 ∆%; IV/Q2014/IVQ2013 ∆% 1.6 2014/2013: 1.6% GDP ∆% 1970-2014 Blog 8/26/12 5/27/12 11/25/12 2/24/13 5/19/13 5/26/13 8/18/13 8/25/13 11/17/13 11/24/13 1/26/14 2/16/14 3/2/14 5/18/14 5/25/14 8/17/14 9/7/14 11/16/14 11/30/14 2/15/15 3/1/15
Consumer Price Index	Feb month NSA ∆%: 0.9 Feb 12-month NSA ∆%: 0.1 Blog 3/15/15
Producer Price Index	Feb month ∆%: 0.1 NSA, 0.0 CSA 12-month NSA ∆%: -2.1 Blog 3/22/15
Industrial Production	MFG Feb month CSA ∆%: 0.6 12-month NSA: -1.2 Blog 4/12/15
Machine Orders	MFG Feb month ∆%: -0.9 Feb 12-month ∆%: -2.4 Blog 4/12/15
Retail Sales	Feb Month ∆% -0.5 12-Month ∆% 3.6 Blog 4/5/15
Employment Report	Unemployment Rate SA Jan 4.8% Blog 4/5/15
Trade Balance	Exports Feb 12-month NSA ∆%: 3.9 Imports Feb 12 months NSA ∆%: 0.8 Exports Feb month CSA ∆%: 1.5; Imports Feb month CSA 1.8 Blog 4/12/15

Links to blog comments in Table DE:

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

9/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/competitive-monetary-policy-and.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

1/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/01/capital-flows-exchange-rates-and.html

11/24/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html

8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

There is significantly stronger performance of production in Germany with wide monthly fluctuations. The production industries index of Germany in Table VE-1A shows increase of 0.2 percent in Dec 2012 and decrease of 9.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2012. The index decreased 0.7 percent in Jan 2013 and 1.3 percent in 12 months and increased 0.8 percent in Feb 2013, declining 4.9 percent in 12 months. In Mar 2013, the production index of Germany increased 1.0 percent and fell 8.5 percent in 12 months. The production index jumped 0.9 percent in Apr 2013 and 7.5 percent in 12 months. In May 2013, the production index fell 1.1 percent and 4.4 percent in 12 months. The production index of Germany increased 1.9 percent in Jun 2013 and fell 0.4 percent in 12 months. In Jul 2013, the production industries index fell 1.2 percent and increased 1.9 percent in 12 months. The production industries index increased 2.1 percent in Aug 2013 and fell 2.8 percent in 12 months. In Sep 2013, the production index fell 0.9 percent and increased 4.2 percent in 12 months. In Oct 2013, the production index of Germany fell 0.7 percent and increased 1.3 percent in 12 months. The index of production industries increased 1.7 percent in Nov 2013 and 0.4 percent in 12 months. The index of production industries increased 0.1 percent in Dec 2013 and increased 5.9 percent in 12 months. The production industries index increased 0.3 percent in Jan 2014 and 3.3 percent in 12 months. In Feb 2014, the production industries index increased 0.4 percent and 5.8 percent in 12 months. The production industries index fell 0.5 percent in Mar 2014 and increased 4.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The production industries index of Germany decreased 0.2 percent in Apr 2014 and fell 1.6 percent in 12 months. The production index fell 1.2 percent in May 2014, increasing 4.0 percent in 12 months. The production index of Germany increased 0.4 percent in Jun 2014 and fell 2.2 percent in 12 months. In Jul 2014, the production industries index of Germany increased 1.3 percent and 3.0 percent in 12 months. The production index of Germany fell 2.6 percent in Aug 2014 and decreased 4.9 percent in 12 months. The production index of Germany increased 1.2 percent in Sep 2014 and 3.6 percent in 12 months. In Oct 2014, the production index of Germany increased 0.4 percent and 1.2 percent in 12 months. The production industries index of Germany increased 0.1 percent in Nov 2014 and decreased 1.4 percent in 12 months. The index of production industries of Germany increased 1.0 percent in Dec 2014 and 2.7 percent in 12 months. The index of production industries of Germany decreased 0.4 percent in Jan 2015 and fell 3.2 percent in 12 months. In Feb 2015, the production index of Germany increased 0.2 percent and fell 1.6 percent in 12 months. Germany’s production industries suffered decline of 7.3 percent in Dec 2008 relative to Dec 2007 and decline of 2.3 percent in 2009. Recovery was vigorous with 17.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2010. The first quarter of 2011 was quite strong when the German economy outperformed the other advanced economies. The performance of Germany’s production industries from 2002 to 2006 was vigorous with average rate of 4.5 percent. Data for the production industries index of Germany fluctuate sharply from month to month and in 12-month rates.

Table VE-1A, Germany, Production Industries, Month and 12-Month ∆%

	12-Month ∆% NSA	Month ∆% Calendar SA
Feb 2015	-1.6	0.2
Jan	-3.2	-0.4
Dec 2014	2.7	1.0
Nov	-1.4	0.1
Oct	1.2	0.4
Sep	3.6	1.2
Aug	-4.9	-2.6
Jul	3.0	1.3
Jun	-2.2	0.4
May	4.0	-1.2
Apr	-1.6	-0.2
Mar	4.8	-0.5
Feb	5.8	0.4
Jan	3.3	0.3
Dec 2013	5.9	0.1
Nov	0.4	1.7
Oct	1.3	-0.7
Sep	4.2	-0.9
Aug	-2.8	2.1
Jul	1.9	-1.2
Jun	-0.4	1.9
May	-4.4	-1.1
Apr	7.5	0.9
Mar	-8.5	1.0
Feb	-4.9	0.8
Jan	-1.3	-0.7
Dec 2012	-9.4	0.2
Nov	-2.9	-0.7
Oct	4.1	-1.3
Sep	-6.7	-1.3
Aug	-0.6	0.1
Jul	2.4	0.9
Jun	4.2	-1.0
May	-6.3	1.6
Apr	-0.6	-2.0
Mar	-0.1	2.1
Feb	2.4	-0.4
Jan	4.8	0.8
Dec 2011	2.0	-1.8
Nov	3.9	-0.3
Oct	0.1	1.2
Sep	4.5	-1.8
Aug	10.2	-0.5
Jul	5.8	2.9
Jun	-0.8	-1.6
May	18.2	0.8
Apr	5.3	0.2
Mar	9.8	0.6
Feb	15.8	1.1
Jan	15.1	1.2
Dec 2010	17.1
Dec 2009	-2.3
Dec 2008	-7.3
Dec 2007	-0.1
Dec 2006	2.5
Dec 2005	4.9
Dec 2004	5.3
Dec 2003	5.1
Dec 2002	2.0
Dec 2001	-8.8
Dec 2000	0.2
Dec 1999	6.4
Average ∆% per Year
Dec 1996 to Dec 2014	1.7
Dec 1996 to Dec 2000	3.3
Dec 1996 to Dec 2006	2.4
Dec 2002 to Dec 2006	4.5

Source: Statistiche Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Table VE-2A provides monthly percentage changes of the German production industries index by components from Jul 2014 to Feb 2015. The index increased 0.2 percent in Feb 2015 with increase of 1.2 percent in capital goods and increase of 1.2 percent in energy. There was increase of 0.6 percent in manufacturing and increase of 0.2 percent in intermediate goods. The index decreased 0.4 percent in Feb 2015 with decreases in all segments. The index increased 1.0 percent in Dec 2014 with increase in all segments. The index increased 0.1 percent in Nov 2014 with all segments increasing with exception of decrease of 1.9 percent for energy.

Table VE-2A, Germany, Production Industries, Industry and Components, Month ∆%

	Feb 2015	Jan	Dec  2014	Nov	Oct	Sep	Aug	Jul
Production Industries	0.2	-0.4	1.0	0.1	0.4	1.2	-2.6	1.3
Industry	0.5	-1.0	1.2	0.4	0.4	1.3	-3.2	1.7
Mfg	0.6	-1.0	1.2	0.4	0.4	1.2	-3.1	1.7
Intermediate Goods	0.2	-0.4	1.7	0.2	0.6	0.0	-1.5	0.7
Capital Goods	1.2	-1.2	0.8	0.4	-0.1	3.5	-5.8	3.3
Durable Goods	2.4	-3.9	4.9	2.3	0.3	0.1	-3.5	-0.2
Nondurable Goods	-0.9	-1.5	0.5	0.2	1.2	-1.7	0.8	-0.1
Energy	1.2	-0.1	0.9	-1.9	0.5	2.5	1.2	-1.7

Seasonally Calendar Adjusted

Source: Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Table VE-3A provides 12-month unadjusted percentage changes of industry and components in Germany. There were percentage declines of 12-month rates in the production index of Germany and all segments in the four months from Dec 2012 to Mar 2013 with exception of nondurables in Jan 2013 and energy in Jan and Mar 2013. There is sharp recovery in Apr 2013 with growth of manufacturing by 7.9 percent and capital goods by 11.1 percent. All segments show declines in 12 months in May 2013. There are increases in the 12 months ending in Jun of 1.2 percent in capital goods and 2.8 percent in durable goods. All segments increased in Jul 2013. All segments fell in Aug 2013 with sharp declines. There is strong recovery in Sep with high rates of increase. Many segments increased in the 12 months ending in Oct 2013 with 1.7 percent growth in manufacturing and 2.0 percent in capital goods. Most segments increased in Nov 2013 with 1.1 percent in manufacturing and 1.9 percent in capital goods. All segments increased in Dec 2013 with exception of energy. Most segments increased in Jan 2014 with exception of declines for durable goods and energy. All segments increased in Feb 2014 with exception of energy. All segments increased in Mar 2014 with exception of energy. All segments decreased in Apr 2014 with exception of intermediate goods and nondurable goods. All segments increased in May 2014 with exception of energy. All segments fell in Jun 2014 with exception of nondurable goods. All segments increased in Jul 2014 with exception of energy and durable goods. All segments declined in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014. All segments increased in the 12 months ending in Sep 2014 with exception of energy. All segments increased in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014 with exception of energy and intermediate goods. All segments decreased in Nov 2014. All segments increased in Dec 2014. All segments fell in Jan 2015. Many segments fell in the 12 months ending in Feb 2015 with exceptioni of increases in durable goods, nondurable goods and energy. All Percentage declines in 12 months are quite sharp in Dec 2012 with many percentage changes negative around two-digits. Although there are sharp fluctuations in the data, there is suggestion of deceleration that would be expected from much higher earlier rates. The deceleration is quite evident in single-digit percentage changes from Sep 2011 to Dec 2012 relative to high double-digit percentage changes in Jan-Mar 2011. There are multiple negative 12-month percentage changes across many segments. Growth rates in the recovery from the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009 were initially very vigorous in comparison with the growth rates before the contraction that are shown in the bottom part of Table VE-3A.

Table VE-3A, Germany, Industry and Components, 12-Month ∆% Unadjusted

	IND	MFG	INTG	CG	DG	NDG	EN
2015
Feb	-1.3	-1.2	-1.7	-0.5	0.1	2.9	4.2
Jan	-3.5	-3.4	-2.9	-3.9	-2.4	-4.0	-0.4
2014
Dec	3.4	3.4	2.9	3.7	7.1	2.4	0.8
Nov	-1.3	-1.3	-1.6	-1.4	-1.0	-0.4	-2.4
Oct	1.5	1.5	-0.2	3.0	0.7	1.5	-1.2
Sep	4.3	4.4	3.1	5.8	1.3	3.9	-2.9
Aug	-4.9	-4.7	-2.5	-8.2	-6.3	-0.6	-5.7
Jul	4.6	4.5	2.0	8.0	-0.3	2.2	-7.1
Jun	-1.8	-1.9	-1.4	-2.4	-6.3	0.6	-5.8
May	4.8	4.7	2.7	7.5	6.6	1.9	-2.4
Apr	-1.1	-0.8	0.9	-3.3	-4.2	1.8	-6.7
Mar	5.3	5.2	5.0	5.8	4.9	4.8	-9.3
Feb	5.9	5.9	6.5	5.9	4.4	4.7	-5.2
Jan	3.4	3.3	2.4	5.5	-1.4	1.3	-2.4
2013
Dec	6.2	6.1	7.1	6.4	5.2	4.2	-0.1
Nov	1.1	1.1	0.6	1.9	-0.4	0.5	-1.6
Oct	1.8	1.7	2.3	2.0	-0.4	0.0	-0.3
Sep	4.7	4.6	4.0	5.8	6.1	2.5	0.8
Aug	-2.9	-3.0	-4.0	-1.8	-7.5	-2.4	-3.1
Jul	1.6	1.6	2.1	0.5	4.1	3.5	0.7
Jun	-0.1	0.0	-1.6	1.2	2.8	-1.1	-1.6
May	-4.5	-4.4	-3.6	-5.9	-10.2	-0.9	-4.6
Apr	8.1	7.9	4.3	11.1	9.3	8.9	0.4
Mar	-8.4	-8.3	-7.3	-9.6	-9.0	-7.0	2.4
Feb	-5.1	-5.2	-5.7	-5.4	-6.1	-2.3	-8.9
Jan	-1.2	-1.1	-1.3	-2.7	-2.8	3.8	0.1
2012
Dec	-9.6	-9.4	-11.8	-8.5	-12.5	-7.0	-2.4
Nov	-3.1	-3.1	-3.9	-2.7	-7.6	-1.2	0.7
Oct	3.9	3.8	2.8	4.0	0.7	7.0	3.2
Sep	-7.6	-7.5	-8.8	-7.1	-11.2	-5.2	4.0
Aug	-1.1	-1.0	-3.2	0.3	0.4	0.7	4.5
Jul	2.0	2.0	0.3	4.6	-2.4	-0.7	2.2
Jun	3.8	3.7	1.9	6.5	7.2	0.3	6.7
May	-7.0	-6.8	-7.5	-6.1	-10.6	-7.7	4.0
Apr	-1.1	-1.1	-2.0	1.9	-5.3	-5.9	3.7
Mar	-0.5	-0.4	-3.1	2.8	-6.2	-2.3	-0.8
Feb	3.2	3.3	0.9	7.3	-0.1	-2.3	5.9
Jan	5.6	5.6	3.0	10.4	4.7	0.1	-3.3
2011
Dec	1.5	1.4	1.8	1.3	0.2	1.4	-9.2
Nov	4.6	4.5	2.9	8.1	2.3	-1.0	-5.8
Oct	0.6	0.7	-0.3	3.2	-2.3	-3.4	-6.1
Sep	5.7	5.7	4.6	9.2	3.4	-0.8	-6.1
Aug	12.4	12.2	9.3	20.4	4.8	1.4	-3.0
Jul	7.9	7.8	5.0	13.7	6.8	0.1	-5.7
Jun	0.5	0.5	0.2	2.3	-10.2	-2.1	-4.7
May	21.5	21.2	17.9	28.3	20.8	12.8	-7.3
Apr	7.5	7.5	6.1	11.1	4.6	1.6	-5.5
Mar	11.2	11.2	10.8	15.0	8.6	2.0	2.8
Feb	17.3	17.1	16.3	23.1	10.1	6.3	-0.4
Jan	17.2	16.9	17.5	23.1	9.9	3.6	-2.6
2010
Dec	17.6	17.6	14.8	25.9	8.5	1.7	2.6
Nov	13.9	13.9	12.9	19.2	7.7	3.9	3.5
Oct	9.9	9.9	9.7	14.0	6.3	0.8	2.5
Sep	9.8	9.5	12.2	10.1	8.3	2.6	2.1
Aug	16.9	17.0	19.3	19.9	18.3	6.9	1.3
Jul	9.0	8.9	13.2	8.7	7.4	0.8	1.9
Jun	16.4	16.2	20.8	16.1	19.7	5.1	-2.8
May	13.1	13.3	20.0	12.0	11.2	1.4	11.1
Apr	14.9	14.9	21.7	15.5	8.8	0.2	9.4
Mar	14.3	14.5	20.4	12.3	11.8	5.8	4.2
Feb	6.8	7.4	10.6	6.5	7.9	-1.0	3.7
Jan	0.4	0.9	6.3	-3.8	0.8	-3.0	0.8
Dec 2010	17.6	17.6	14.8	25.9	8.5	1.7	2.6
Dec 2009	-3.2	-3.1	3.3	-9.9	-0.1	1.1	3.7
Dec 2008	-7.6	-7.4	-14.3	-5.4	-11.2	3.7	-9.0
Dec 2007	0.0	-0.3	-0.6	2.5	-10.0	-2.7	1.6
Dec 2006	3.2	3.1	5.2	2.3	8.6	-0.9	-5.3
Dec 2005	5.8	5.9	3.5	9.0	3.2	2.1	0.6
Dec 2004	5.3	5.5	7.7	3.4	0.8	5.7	9.6
Dec 2003	5.5	5.3	5.5	6.4	1.7	4.4	0.3
Dec 2002	73.7	3.3	5.4	3.4	-5.9	2.3	-2.6

Note: IND: Industry; MFG: Manufacturing; INTG: Intermediate Goods; CG: Capital Goods; DG: Durable Goods; NDG: Nondurable Goods; EN: Energy

Source: Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Broader perspective since 2005 is provided by Chart VE-1A of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland, Federal Statistical Agency of Germany. The index of production industries not seasonally adjusted rises by more than one third between 2003 and 2008 with sharp fluctuations and then collapses during the global recession in 2008. Recovery has been in a steep upward trajectory that has recovered at the more recent peaks the losses during the contraction. Recovery stalled recently with increase at the margin.

Chart VE-1A, Germany, Production Industries, Not Adjusted, 2010=100

Source: Statistiche Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

More detail is provided by Chart VE-2 of the Statistiche Bundesamt Deutschland, or Federal Statistical Agency of Germany, with the unadjusted production industries index and trend from 2011 to 2015. There could be some flattening in recent months probably leading into stagnation, mild downturn and recent recovery as depicted by trend. There is weakness in the current segment with stability/decline followed with increase/stability.

Chart VE-2A, Germany, Production Industries, Not Adjusted, 2010=100

Source: Statistiche Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Table VE-4A provides month and 12-month rates of growth of manufacturing in Germany from Dec 2010 to Feb 2015. There are fluctuations in both monthly rates and in the past 12 months. In Jan 2013, manufacturing fell 1.2 percent and decreased 1.1 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing increased 1.0 percent in Feb 2013, declining 5.2 percent in 12 months. In Mar 2013, manufacturing increased 1.0 percent but fell 8.3 percent in 12 months. There is strong recovery in Apr 2013 with growth of 0.5 percent and 7.9 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 0.9 percent in May 2013 and declined 4.4 percent in 12 months. Recovery is strong in Jun 2013 with growth of 1.9 percent in the month but change of 0.0 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 1.8 percent in Jul 2013 and increased 1.6 percent in 12 months. In Aug 2013, manufacturing increased 2.8 percent and fell 3.0 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 1.2 percent in Sep 2013 and increased 4.6 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing increased 2.2 percent in Nov 2013 and 1.1 percent in 12 months. In Dec 2013, manufacturing increased 0.1 percent and increased 6.1 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing decreased 0.1 percent in Jan 2014, increasing 3.3 percent in 12 months. In Feb 2014, manufacturing increased 0.5 percent and 5.9 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 0.3 percent in Mar 2014 and increased 5.2 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing increased 0.2 percent in Apr 2014 and fell 0.8 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 1.4 percent in May, increasing 4.7 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing increased 0.3 percent in Jun 2014 and fell 1.9 percent in 12 months. In Jul 2014, manufacturing jumped 1.7 percent and increased 4.5 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 3.1 percent in Aug 2014 and declined 4.7 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing increased 1.2 percent in Sep 2014 and 4.4 percent in 12 months. In Oct 2014, manufacturing increased 0.4 percent and 1.5 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing grew 0.4 percent in Nov 2014 and fell 1.3 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing increased 1.2 percent in Dec 2014 and increased 3.4 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing decreased 1.0 percent in Feb 2015 and decreased 3.4 percent in 12 months. In Feb 2015, manufacturing increased 0.6 percent and fell 1.2 percent in 12 months.

Table VE-4A, Germany, Manufacturing Month and 12-Month ∆%

	12-Month ∆% NSA	Month ∆% SA and Calendar Adjusted
Feb 2015	-1.2	0.6
Jan	-3.4	-1.0
Dec 2014	3.4	1.2
Nov	-1.3	0.4
Oct	1.5	0.4
Sep	4.4	1.2
Aug	-4.7	-3.1
Jul	4.5	1.7
Jun	-1.9	0.3
May	4.7	-1.4
Apr	-0.8	0.2
Mar	5.2	-0.3
Feb	5.9	0.5
Jan	3.3	-0.1
Dec 2013	6.1	0.1
Nov	1.1	2.2
Oct	1.7	-0.6
Sep	4.6	-1.2
Aug	-3.0	2.8
Jul	1.6	-1.8
Jun	0.0	1.9
May	-4.4	-0.9
Apr	7.9	0.5
Mar	-8.3	1.0
Feb	-5.2	1.0
Jan	-1.1	-1.2
Dec 2012	-9.4	1.0
Nov	-3.1	-0.7
Oct	3.8	-1.3
Sep	-7.5	-1.7
Aug	-1.0	0.2
Jul	2.0	1.3
Jun	3.7	-1.4
May	-6.8	2.1
Apr	-1.1	-1.9
Mar	-0.4	1.0
Feb	3.3	0.3
Jan	5.6	0.8
Dec 2011	1.4	-1.7
Nov	4.5	-0.8
Oct	0.7	1.2
Sep	5.7	-1.9
Aug	12.2	-0.5
Jul	7.8	3.2
Jun	0.5	-1.7
May	21.2	1.1
Apr	7.5	0.6
Mar	11.2	0.7
Feb	17.1	1.3
Jan	16.9	0.0
Dec 2010	17.6	1.3

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-3A of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland, or Federal Statistical Office of Germany, provides the manufacturing index of Germany from 2011 to 2015. Manufacturing was already flattening in 2007 and fell sharply in 2008 to the beginning of 2010. Manufacturing grew sharply in the initial phase of recovery but has slowed in recent months as revealed by the trend that may be flattening.

Chart VE-3A, Germany, Production Index, Manufacturing, Not Adjusted Index and Trend, 2010=100

Source: Statistiche Bundesamt Deutschland https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Table VE-5 provides month and 12-month rates of growth of new orders of manufacturing in Germany from Jan 2010 to Feb 2015. There are fluctuations in both monthly rates and in the past 12 months. Table VE-1 reveals strong fluctuations in an evident deceleration of total orders for industry of Germany with recent oscillating improvement. Total orders for manufacturing decreased 0.9 percent in Feb 2015 and decreased 2.4 percent in 12 months. There is the same behavior for total, foreign and domestic orders with decline in 12-month rates from two-digit levels to single digits and negative changes. An important aspect of Germany is that the bulk of orders is domestic or from other European countries while foreign orders have been growing rapidly. There is weakening world trade affecting export economies. As in other countries, data on orders for manufacturing are highly volatile. Most 12-month percentage changes from Jan 2012 to Sep 2012 in Table VE-1 are negative largely because of the unusual strength of the Germany economy in the beginning of 2011 but more recently because of slowing world economy in 2012-2015.

Table VE-5, Germany, Volume of Orders Received in Manufacturing, Total, Domestic and Foreign, ∆%  

	Total 12 M	Total M	Foreign 12 M	Foreign M	Home 12 M	Home M
2015
Feb	-2.4	-0.9	-2.4	-1.6	-2.5	0.0
Jan	-3.2	-2.6	-2.3	-3.2	-4.3	-1.7
2014
Dec	6.3	3.3	6.1	3.0	6.2	3.8
Nov	-1.5	-2.2	0.9	-0.7	-4.5	-4.1
Oct	2.8	2.6	2.6	0.6	3.1	5.5
Sep	2.3	1.6	4.2	4.1	-0.3	-1.8
Aug	-2.6	-5.5	-0.3	-8.1	-5.3	-1.8
Jul	6.9	6.1	10.8	9.1	2.1	2.1
Jun	-4.1	-0.4	-5.0	0.5	-2.9	-1.4
May	4.7	-3.4	2.8	-4.2	7.2	-2.4
Apr	3.7	2.7	4.6	4.4	2.6	0.5
Mar	3.3	-1.9	2.6	-3.8	4.2	0.5
Feb	6.9	-0.1	8.8	-0.2	4.7	0.1
Jan	6.5	1.7	9.0	0.6	3.4	3.2
2013
Dec	8.4	-1.2	10.7	0.5	5.0	-3.5
Nov	4.5	1.0	6.0	-0.2	2.5	2.7
Oct	3.7	-0.6	4.1	-0.1	3.1	-1.3
Sep	11.2	2.5	13.7	5.1	8.0	-0.7
Aug	0.0	0.7	-0.9	-0.6	1.0	2.3
Jul	5.1	-2.9	5.5	-4.7	4.8	-0.3
Jun	4.8	4.4	7.9	5.0	0.7	3.8
May	-3.6	0.3	-1.6	1.4	-6.2	-1.2
Apr	5.9	-2.3	7.6	-1.6	3.6	-3.2
Mar	-5.6	2.1	-4.4	2.3	-7.2	1.8
Feb	-2.7	2.0	-1.5	2.4	-4.2	1.4
Jan	0.3	-0.3	1.9	-1.4	-1.7	1.3
2012
Dec	-9.1	0.5	-6.7	1.2	-12.6	-0.3
Nov	-0.9	-2.7	2.4	-4.6	-5.1	-0.2
Oct	4.5	3.9	7.0	6.9	1.3	0.1
Sep	-8.9	-2.4	-6.6	-3.7	-11.7	-0.7
Aug	-4.4	-0.3	-2.1	0.2	-7.1	-1.1
Jul	-1.6	0.4	0.6	0.7	-4.2	0.1
Jun	-4.5	-2.6	-6.4	-2.9	-1.7	-2.0
May	-11.0	1.7	-3.7	3.3	-18.8	-0.2
Apr	-3.9	-2.0	-4.4	-2.9	-3.1	-1.0
Mar	-2.2	2.3	-1.2	3.1	-3.3	1.5
Feb	-4.3	0.9	-4.7	2.1	-3.8	-0.6
Jan	-2.6	-1.5	-4.6	-2.7	-0.2	0.0
2011
Dec	0.0	1.8	-0.3	3.9	0.5	-0.9
Nov	-4.8	-3.2	-8.2	-5.4	-0.3	-0.4
Oct	0.1	1.8	2.1	3.5	-2.1	-0.2
Sep	2.2	-3.6	1.9	-4.6	2.6	-2.4
Aug	7.1	-0.6	5.2	0.3	9.4	-1.7
Jul	4.9	-2.3	4.6	-6.2	5.4	2.8
Jun	3.5	-0.6	7.8	8.5	-2.0	-10.6
May	23.1	3.3	16.0	-3.1	31.8	11.4
Apr	6.7	1.7	9.6	2.3	3.0	0.9
Mar	9.8	-3.3	12.3	-3.4	6.9	-2.9
Feb	21.5	1.1	24.1	0.6	18.4	1.7
Jan	22.5	4.4	26.1	4.5	18.2	4.3
2010
Dec	21.8	-3.3	26.8	-4.5	15.4	-1.6
Nov	21.4	5.4	27.1	8.7	15.0	1.4
Oct	14.2	0.5	18.2	0.3	10.0	0.9
Sep	13.9	-1.4	15.6	-3.6	11.9	1.4
Aug	22.2	2.5	29.7	4.4	14.5	0.3
Jul	14.1	-0.8	21.4	-0.7	6.4	-1.0
Jun	27.6	2.2	30.6	2.6	24.2	1.8
May	24.8	0.5	29.6	1.5	19.4	-0.8
Apr	29.9	3.0	34.0	3.2	25.7	2.8
Mar	29.4	4.8	32.9	4.8	25.8	5.0
Feb	24.0	0.0	28.7	0.7	18.6	-0.7
Jan	17.0	3.9	23.8	4.4	9.8	3.1
Dec 2009	9.1	-1.7	10.5	-2.6	7.3	-0.5
Dec 2008	-28.3	-6.7	-31.5	-9.5	-23.7	-2.9
Dec 2007	7.1	-0.9	9.1	-2.0	4.4	0.2
Dec 2006	2.8	0.8	3.4	0.5	2.2	1.1
Dec 2005	5.0	-0.5	10.4	-1.1	-1.4	0.3
Dec 2004	12.7	6.5	13.0	8.5	12.7	4.9
Dec 2003	10.7	2.4	16.4	5.4	5.1	-0.8
Dec 2002	-0.2	-3.4	-0.8	-6.6	0.2	-0.3
Average ∆% 2003-2007	7.6		10.4		4.5
Average ∆% 2003-2012	2.3		3.9		0.3

Notes: AE: Annual Equivalent; M: Month; M: Calendar and seasonally adjusted; 12 M: Non-adjusted Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Orders for capital goods of Germany are shown in Table VE-6. Total capital goods orders decreased 1.1 percent in Feb 2015 and decreased 2.1 percent in 12 months. Domestic orders increased 1.9 percent in Feb 2015 and foreign orders decreased 2.9 percent. There has been deceleration from 2010 and early 2011 with growth rates falling from two digit levels to single digits, and multiple negative changes with recent improvement. An important aspect of Germany’s economy shown in Tables VE-5 and VE-6 is the success in increasing the competitiveness of its economic activities as shown by rapid growth of orders for industry after the recession of 2001 in the period before the global recession beginning in late 2007. Germany adopted fiscal and labor market reforms to increase productivity.

Table VE-6, Germany, Volume of Orders Received of Capital Goods Industries, Total, Foreign and Domestic, ∆%

	Total 12 M	Total M	Foreign 12 M	Foreign M	Domestic 12 M	Domestic M
2015
Feb	-2.1	-1.1	-3.7	-2.9	0.8	1.9
Jan	-2.1	-3.2	-1.6	-4.6	-2.8	-0.4
2014
Dec	6.5	4.2	5.7	5.1	8.1	2.4
Nov	-0.8	-2.6	1.0	-0.1	-3.8	-6.6
Oct	5.2	3.4	3.6	-0.3	8.0	10.1
Sep	1.5	1.9	2.8	4.7	-0.9	-3.0
Aug	-2.4	-8.3	-0.3	-11.8	-6.0	-1.6
Jul	10.4	10.9	14.7	14.8	3.0	3.9
Jun	-7.6	-1.5	-9.0	-0.6	-4.9	-3.1
May	5.4	-4.0	2.3	-4.8	10.7	-2.5
Apr	5.5	3.3	6.4	5.9	4.1	-0.9
Mar	3.8	-2.4	1.4	-5.3	7.8	2.9
Feb	7.3	0.2	9.0	0.2	4.4	0.2
Jan	7.4	0.5	9.4	-1.8	4.0	4.9
2013
Dec	10.7	-0.2	14.8	3.2	3.2	-5.9
Nov	6.8	2.5	7.4	1.7	5.3	4.0
Oct	2.7	-3.1	2.1	-3.5	3.3	-2.3
Sep	14.6	3.9	17.1	7.4	10.3	-1.8
Aug	3.1	0.6	1.5	-1.4	5.7	4.1
Jul	6.3	-5.3	7.3	-7.4	5.0	-1.6
Jun	9.1	8.3	13.5	8.6	1.8	7.9
May	-3.1	0.4	-0.4	2.6	-7.8	-3.3
Apr	6.0	-2.6	7.3	-2.8	3.7	-2.6
Mar	-5.9	1.4	-4.4	2.0	-8.2	0.4
Feb	0.1	2.9	2.7	3.0	-4.0	2.5
Jan	3.1	-0.3	5.8	-0.6	-1.4	0.3
2012
Dec	-7.7	1.5	-4.6	1.4	-13.3	1.6
Nov	-0.7	-4.3	3.1	-5.9	-6.5	-1.2
Oct	4.6	5.6	6.3	8.4	2.1	1.0
Sep	-7.5	-1.5	-4.8	-2.6	-11.6	0.2
Aug	-4.6	-1.8	-2.6	-0.9	-7.4	-3.2
Jul	-0.3	0.6	1.2	1.1	-2.7	-0.4
Jun	-7.1	-2.6	-9.9	-3.4	-1.9	-1.1
May	-12.0	1.9	-2.8	3.2	-23.9	-0.1
Apr	-3.3	-3.4	-4.2	-4.2	-1.7	-2.1
Mar	2.2	5.2	3.3	7.2	0.2	1.8
Feb	-5.9	1.6	-7.0	2.3	-4.2	0.7
Jan	-3.7	-3.1	-6.5	-3.5	1.0	-2.5
2011
Dec	1.2	1.8	-0.1	2.7	3.5	0.5
Nov	-6.5	-4.2	-10.5	-7.4	0.7	1.2
Oct	3.1	3.8	6.2	6.4	-2.0	-0.4
Sep	2.9	-4.0	2.2	-5.4	4.0	-1.8
Aug	6.7	-0.4	4.5	0.6	10.6	-1.9
Jul	7.2	-6.2	6.4	-10.1	8.8	0.6
Jun	9.1	0.9	13.3	13.1	2.0	-15.4
May	27.5	5.4	17.7	-3.7	43.5	20.9
Apr	11.0	4.0	14.1	5.3	6.3	1.7
Mar	12.0	-6.2	14.4	-6.0	8.5	-6.3
Feb	29.3	2.8	32.5	1.6	24.8	4.8
Jan	26.8	4.4	32.8	5.1	17.7	3.2
2010
Dec	27.4	-5.9	31.2	-8.0	21.1	-2.2
Nov	30.4	9.2	37.0	13.5	20.1	2.2
Oct	20.5	0.3	24.9	-0.6	14.3	1.9
Sep	18.2	-2.6	20.3	-5.2	14.7	1.8
Aug	27.5	5.3	40.0	7.3	11.5	2.1
Jul	14.1	-2.3	28.1	-2.0	-2.5	-2.5
Jun	32.0	3.0	38.7	4.2	22.1	1.2
May	26.2	2.5	36.6	2.7	12.8	2.1
Apr	31.0	3.1	41.4	4.0	18.1	1.6
Mar	25.8	6.1	33.8	6.8	15.7	5.1
Feb	21.2	-0.9	31.3	0.6	8.3	-3.0
Jan	17.0	4.2	29.6	2.5	2.8	7.1
Dec 2009	8.1	-1.2	13.6	-1.5	0.3	-1.0
Dec 2008	-32.2	-7.2	-36.8	-10.0	-24.5	-3.6
Dec 2007	9.4	-0.6	11.6	-2.3	6.1	2.2
Dec 2006	3.5	2.2	3.9	2.9	2.9	1.2
Dec 2005	1.8	-2.1	9.7	-2.5	-8.4	-1.6
Dec 2004	19.5	11.2	18.6	12.2	20.6	9.7
Dec 2003	11.7	2.1	17.2	5.0	5.4	-1.6
Dec 2002	-2.8	-4.3	-3.7	-8.1	-1.8	0.2
Average ∆% 2003-2007	9.0		12.1		4.9
Average ∆% 2003-2012	3.0		4.7		0.5

Notes: AE: Annual Equivalent; M: Month; M: Calendar and seasonally-adjusted; 12 M: Non-adjusted

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-4 of the German Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland shows the sharp upward trend of total orders in manufacturing before the global recession. There is also an obvious upward trend in the recovery from the recession with Germany’s economy being among the most dynamic in the advanced economies until the slowdown beginning in the final months of 2011 and what could be stationary series from late 2011 into 2012 but risk of decline/stability in the final segment.

Chart VE-4, Germany, Volume of Total Orders in Manufacturing, Non-Adjusted, 2010=100

Source:  Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-5 shows non-adjusted total orders in manufacturing and trend. There was sharp recovery from the global recession with subsequent decline. Trend reversed upwardly and could be flattening/increasing.

Chart VE-5, Germany, Volume of Total Orders in Manufacturing and Trend, Non-Adjusted, 2010=100

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Twelve-month rates of growth Germany’s exports and imports are shown in Table VE-7. Exports increased 3.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2015 while imports increased 0.8 percent. There was sharp decline in the rates in Jun and Jul 2011 to single-digit levels especially for exports. In the 12 months ending in Aug 2011, exports rose 14.6 percent and imports 13.2 percent. In Sep 2011, exports grew 10.4 percent relative to a year earlier and imports grew 11.7 percent. Growth rates in 12 months ending in Oct 2011 fell significantly to 3.5 percent for exports and 9.2 percent for imports. Lower prices may explain part of the decline in nominal values. Exports fell 3.8 percent in 12 months ending in Sep 2012, rebounding to growth of 10.5 percent in Oct 2012 and minus 0.4 percent in Nov 2012 but sharp decline of 7.3 percent in Dec 2012 followed by rebound of 2.8 percent in Jan 2013. Exports fell 3.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2013 and declined 4.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2013. In Apr 2013, exports increased 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Exports fell 4.9 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2013. Exports fell 5.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2013 and imports fell 2.3 percent. In the 12 months ending in Sep 2013, exports increased 3.3 percent and imports fell 0.2 percent. Exports increased 0.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2013 while imports fell 1.5 percent. Exports increased 0.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2013 and imports fell 0.2 percent. Exports increased 4.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013 while imports increased 2.5 percent. Exports increased 2.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2014 while imports increased 0.9 percent. Exports increased 4.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2014 and imports increased 5.6 percent. Exports increased 1.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2014 and imports 4.1 percent. Exports fell 0.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014 while imports increased 0.1 percent. In May 2014, exports increased 4.0 percent in 12 months. Exports increased 1.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2014 and 8.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2014. Exports fell 1.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014. Exports increased 8.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2014 and increased 5.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014. Exports increased 1.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2014. Imports decreased 4.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2012, rebounding to growth of 5.7 percent in Oct 2012, decreasing 1.5 percent in Nov 2012 and 7.8 percent in Dec 2012 and rebounding 3.5 percent in Jan 2013. Imports fell 5.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2013 and declined 6.9 percent in Mar 2013 relative to a year earlier. In Apr 2013, imports increased 4.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In May 2013, imports fell 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Imports fell 1.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2013. In Jul 2013, imports increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Imports fell 2.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2013. In the 12 months ending in Sep 2013, imports declined 0.2 percent. Imports fell 1.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2013. Imports fell 0.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2013 and increased 2.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013. Imports increased 0.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2014 and 5.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2014. Imports increased 4.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2014 and 0.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014. Imports fell 0.7 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2014 and increased 2.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2014. Imports increased 0.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2014 and fell 2.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014. Imports increased 8.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2014 and increased 0.8 percent in Oct 2014 relative to a year earlier. Imports increased 1.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2014. Imports increased 4.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2014 and fell 2.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2015. Exports increased 3.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2015 while imports increased 0.8 percent. Growth was much stronger in the recovery during 2010 and 2011 from the fall from 2007 to 2009. Germany’s trade grew at high rates in 2006 and 2005.

Table VE-7, Germany, Exports and Imports NSA Euro Billions and 12-Month ∆%

	Exports EURO Billions	12- Month ∆%	Imports EURO Billions	12-Month ∆%
Feb 2015	95.7	3.9	76.5	0.8
Jan	89.9	-0.6	74.1	-2.2
Dec 2014	90.1	10.0	71.2	4.1
Nov	96.0	1.6	78.1	1.9
Oct	103.9	5.0	81.9	0.8
Sep	102.3	8.3	80.3	8.0
Aug	83.9	-1.1	70.0	-2.4
Jul	100.8	8.4	77.3	0.6
Jun	93.2	1.1	77.0	2.2
May	91.7	4.0	74.1	-0.7
Apr	93.4	-0.5	76.2	0.1
Mar	95.7	1.4	78.9	4.1
Feb	92.1	4.3	75.9	5.6
Jan	90.5	2.2	75.8	0.9
Dec 2013	81.9	4.3	68.3	2.5
Nov	94.5	0.8	76.7	-0.2
Oct	99.0	0.6	81.2	-1.5
Sep	94.4	3.3	74.4	-0.2
Aug	84.8	-5.9	71.7	-2.3
Jul	93.0	-0.4	76.9	1.0
Jun	92.2	-2.2	75.4	-1.2
May	88.2	-4.9	74.7	-3.0
Apr	93.9	7.6	76.1	4.4
Mar	94.3	-4.4	75.8	-6.9
Feb	88.3	-3.2	71.9	-5.2
Jan	88.5	2.8	75.1	3.5
Dec 2012	78.6	-7.3	66.6	-7.8
Nov	93.7	-0.4	76.8	-1.5
Oct	98.4	10.5	82.5	5.7
Sep	91.4	-3.8	74.5	-4.1
Aug	90.2	5.7	73.4	-0.1
Jul	93.3	9.1	76.2	1.5
Jun	94.3	7.0	76.3	1.4
May	92.7	0.3	77.0	-0.7
Apr	87.2	3.2	72.9	-1.1
Mar	98.7	0.1	81.5	2.1
Feb	91.2	7.9	75.8	4.6
Jan	86.1	8.6	72.6	4.6
Dec 2011	84.8	4.7	72.3	5.6
Nov	94.1	7.4	78.0	5.8
Oct	89.1	3.5	78.1	9.2
Sep	95.0	10.4	77.7	11.7
Aug	85.3	14.6	73.5	13.2
Jul	85.6	5.2	75.0	9.7
Jun	88.1	3.3	75.2	5.6
May	92.4	21.2	77.5	17.4
Apr	84.5	12.4	73.7	18.5
Mar	98.7	15.3	79.8	15.1
Feb	84.5	20.8	72.5	27.6
Jan	79.3	25.2	69.4	26.0
Dec 2010	81.0	20.0	68.4	24.4
Nov	87.6	21.2	73.7	30.9
Oct	86.0	18.7	71.5	19.2
Sep	86.0	21.2	69.5	17.0
Aug	74.4	23.8	64.9	27.1
Jul	81.4	15.3	68.4	24.4
Jun	85.3	27.5	71.2	33.9
May	76.2	25.6	66.1	31.3
Apr	75.2	16.8	62.2	14.4
Mar	85.6	22.0	69.3	18.0
Feb	70.0	9.7	56.8	3.2
Jan	63.4	-0.3	55.1	-1.9
Dec 2009	67.5	1.2	55.0	-7.3
Dec 2008	66.7	-8.6	59.4	-5.1
Dec 2007	73.0	-0.6	62.5	-0.1
Dec 2006	73.4	10.2	62.6	8.5
Dec 2005	66.6	11.5	57.7	18.1
Dec 2004	59.7	9.2	48.9	10.8
Dec 2003	54.7	7.6	44.1	3.9
Dec 2002	50.8	5.5	42.5	6.4
Dec 2001	48.2	-3.7	39.9	-17.5
Dec 2000	50.0		48.4

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-6 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland shows exports and trend of German exports. Growth has been with fluctuations around a strong upward trend that is milder than earlier in the recovery but could be moving upwardly after flattening.

Chart VE-6, Germany, Exports Original Value and Trend 2011-2015

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Imports in Chart VE-7 also fell sharply and have been recovering with fluctuations around a strong upward trend that could be flattening. There could be new downward trend with soft international prices.

Chart VE-7, Germany, Imports Original Value and Trend 2011-2015

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-8 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland shows the trade balance of Germany since 2010. There was sharp decline during the global recession and fluctuations around a mild upward trend during the recovery with stabilization followed by stronger trend in recent months and flattening/declining recently. The final segment could be increasing.

Chart VE-8, Germany, Trade Balance Original and Trend 2011-2015

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Table VE-6A provides monthly rates of growth of exports and imports of Germany. Exports increased 1.5 percent calendar and seasonally adjusted (CSA) in Feb 2015 while imports increased 1.8 percent. Export growth had been relatively strong from Dec 2012 to Apr 2013 with only one monthly decline of 1.5 percent in Feb 2013. Exports fell 1.0 percent in May 2013 and 1.6 percent in Jul 2013. Exports grew in four consecutive months from Aug to Nov 2013. Exports fell in Dec 2013, Feb-Mar 2014, May 2014, Aug 2014, Nov 2014 and Jan 2015, increasing in Jan, Apr, Jun, Jul 2014, Sep 2014, Oct 2014, Dec 2014 and Feb 2015. Export growth and import growth were vigorous in Jan-Mar 2011 when Germany’s economy outperformed most advanced economies but less dynamic and consistent in following months as world trade weakens.

Table VE-8, Germany, Exports and Imports Month ∆% Calendar and Seasonally Adjusted 

	Exports	Imports
Feb 2015	1.5	1.8
Jan	-2.1	-0.2
Dec 2014	2.8	-0.7
Nov	-1.5	1.1
Oct	0.2	-2.1
Sep	4.4	3.8
Aug	-4.6	-0.8
Jul	3.8	-1.7
Jun	1.1	3.7
May	-1.2	-2.4
Apr	2.8	0.4
Mar	-1.9	-1.2
Feb	-1.5	-0.2
Jan	3.1	3.1
Dec 2013	-1.9	-1.2
Nov	1.0	-0.4
Oct	0.5	3.1
Sep	0.5	-2.6
Aug	2.0	0.4
Jul	-1.6	0.8
Jun	0.3	-1.6
May	-1.0	1.6
Apr	0.3	1.3
Mar	1.6	0.6
Feb	-1.5	-3.1
Jan	1.7	2.8
Dec 2012	-0.1	-1.1
Nov	-2.0	-3.4
Oct	0.4	2.5
Sep	-3.2	-0.9
Aug	2.4	0.1
Jul	-0.1	0.7
Jun	-1.5	-2.8
May	4.6	4.8
Apr	-1.5	-3.9
Mar	0.2	1.1
Feb	1.2	3.3
Jan	2.9	-0.7
Dec 2011	-3.5	-1.8
Nov	3.2	0.1
Oct	-3.2	-0.5
Sep	0.9	-0.2
Aug	3.1	0.0
Jul	-1.8	0.6
Jun	-0.3	0.0
May	2.5	1.2
Apr	-3.5	-0.2
Mar	4.8	1.8
Feb	1.6	2.4
Jan	1.0	2.8
Dec 2010	-0.6	-2.1

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

There is extremely important information in Table VE-9 for the current sovereign risk crisis in the euro zone. Table VE-9 provides the structure of regional and country relations of Germany’s exports and imports with newly available data for Feb 2015. German exports to other European Union (EU) members are 59.1 percent of total exports in Feb 2015 and 59.6 percent in cumulative Jan-Feb 2015. Exports to the euro area are 37.2 percent of the total in Feb and 37.6 percent cumulative in Jan-Feb. Exports to third countries are 41.0 percent of the total in Feb and 40.4 percent cumulative in Jan-Feb. There is similar distribution for imports. Exports to non-euro countries are increasing 6.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2015, increasing 4.9 percent cumulative in Jan-Feb 2015 while exports to the euro area are increasing 1.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2015 and decreasing 0.6 percent cumulative in Jan-Feb 2015. Exports to third countries, accounting for 41.0 percent of the total in Feb 2015, are increasing 4.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2015 and increasing 2.1 percent cumulative in Jan-Feb 2015, accounting for 40.4 percent of the cumulative total in Jan-Feb 2015. Price competitiveness through devaluation could improve export performance and growth. Economic performance in Germany is closely related to Germany’s high competitiveness in world markets. Weakness in the euro zone and the European Union in general could affect the German economy. This may be the major reason for choosing the “fiscal abuse” of the European Central Bank considered by Buiter (2011Oct31) over the breakdown of the euro zone. There is a tough analytical, empirical and forecasting doubt of growth and trade in the euro zone and the world with or without maintenance of the European Monetary Union (EMU) or euro zone. Germany could benefit from depreciation of the euro because of high share in its exports to countries not in the euro zone but breakdown of the euro zone raises doubts on the region’s economic growth that could affect German exports to other member states.

Table VE-9, Germany, Structure of Exports and Imports by Region, € Billions and ∆%

	Feb 2014  € Billions	Feb 12-Month ∆%	Cumulative Jan-Feb 2014 € Billions	Cumulative Jan-Feb 2014/ Jan-Feb 2013 ∆%
Total Exports	95.7	3.9	185.7	1.7
A. EU Members	56.6 % 59.1	3.4	110.7 % 59.6	1.4
Euro Area	35.6 % 37.2	1.7	69.8 % 37.6	-0.6
Non-euro Area	20.9 % 21.8	6.4	40.9 % 22.0	4.9
B. Third Countries	39.2 % 41.0	4.6	75.0 % 40.4	2.1
Total Imports	76.5	0.8	150.6	-0.7
C EU Members	50.7 % 66.3	0.9	97.7 % 64.9	-0.8
Euro Area	34.8 % 45.5	0.5	67.0 % 44.5	-1.9
Non-euro Area	15.9 % 20.8	2.0	30.7 % 20.4	1.8
D Third Countries	25.8 % 33.7	0.6	52.9 % 35.1	-0.5

Notes: Total Exports = A+B; Total Imports = C+D

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/04/PE15_126_51.html

VF France. Table VF-FR provides growth rates of GDP of France with the estimates of Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE). The long-term rate of GDP growth of France from IVQ1949 to IVQ2014 is quite high at 3.2 percent. France’s growth rates were quite high in the four decades of the 1950s, 1960, 1970s and 1980s with an average growth rate of 4.0 percent compounding the average rates in the decades and discounting to one decade. The growth impulse diminished with 2.0 percent in the 1990s and 1.8 percent from 2000 to 2007. The average growth rate from 2000 to 2014, using fourth quarter data, is 1.0 percent because of the sharp impact of the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. Cobet and Wilson (2002) provide estimates of output per hour and unit labor costs in national currency and US dollars for the US, Japan and Germany from 1950 to 2000 (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 137-44). The average yearly rate of productivity change from 1950 to 2000 was 2.9 percent in the US, 6.3 percent for Japan and 4.7 percent for Germany while unit labor costs in USD increased at 2.6 percent in the US, 4.7 percent in Japan and 4.3 percent in Germany. From 1995 to 2000, output per hour increased at the average yearly rate of 4.6 percent in the US, 3.9 percent in Japan and 2.6 percent in Germany while unit labor costs in US fell at minus 0.7 percent in the US, 4.3 percent in Japan and 7.5 percent in Germany. There was increase in productivity growth in the G7 in Japan and France in the second half of the 1990s but significantly lower than the acceleration of 1.3 percentage points per year in the US. Lucas (2011May) compares growth of the G7 economies (US, UK, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Canada) and Spain, finding that catch-up growth with earlier rates for the US and UK stalled in the 1970s.

Table VF-FR, France, Average Growth Rates of GDP Fourth Quarter, 1949-2014

Period	Average ∆%
1949-2014	3.2
2007-2014	0.3
2000-2014	1.0
2000-2013	1.1
2000-2007	1.8
1990-1999	2.0
1980-1989	2.6
1970-1979	3.7
1960-1969	5.7
1950-1959	4.2

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=28&date=20150326

The Markit Flash France Composite Output Index decreased from 52.2 in Feb to 51.7 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/aa2d103513934a7682046ad5582b152b). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds possible improvement in IQ2015 GDP (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/aa2d103513934a7682046ad5582b152b). The Markit France Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing with close association with French GDP, decreased from 52.2 in Feb to 51.5 in Mar, indicating expansion at slower pace (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/49268c6ccda04350a1a73584cd782a22). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the France Services PMI^®, finds continuing improvement (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/49268c6ccda04350a1a73584cd782a22). The Markit France Services Activity index decreased from 53.4 in Feb to 52.4 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/49268c6ccda04350a1a73584cd782a22). The Markit France Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^® increased to 48.8 in Mar from 47.6 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c04a6a98761641fa94caae56d7a4b327). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the France Manufacturing PMI^®, finds slower deterioration in manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c04a6a98761641fa94caae56d7a4b327). Table FR provides the country data table for France.

Table FR, France, Economic Indicators

CPI	Feb month ∆% 0.7 12 months ∆%: -0.3 3/15/15
PPI	Feb month ∆%: 0.8 Feb 12 months ∆%: -2.5 Blog 4/5/15
GDP Growth	IVQ2014/IIIQ2014 ∆%: 0.1 IVQ2014/IVQ2013 ∆%: 0.2 Blog 3/31/13 5/19/12 6/30/13 9/29/13 11/17/13 12/29/13 2/16/14 4/6/14 5/18/14 6/29/14 8/17/14 9/28/14 11/16/14 12/28/14 2/15/15 3/29/15
Industrial Production	Feb ∆%: Manufacturing 0.0 12-Month ∆%: Manufacturing -0.8 Blog 4/12/15
Consumer Spending	Manufactured Goods Feb ∆%: -0.1 Feb 12-Month Manufactured Goods ∆%: 2.4 Blog 4/5/15
Employment	Unemployment Rate: IVQ2014 10.0% Blog 3/15/15
Trade Balance	Feb Exports ∆%: month 1.4, 12 months 3.0 Feb Imports ∆%: month 0.6, 12 months 1.5 Blog 4/12/15
Confidence Indicators	Historical average 100 Mar Mfg Business Climate 99.0 Blog 3/29/15

Links to blog comments in Table FR:

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

9/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

12/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/collapse-of-united-states-dynamism-of.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

6/30/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/tapering-quantitative-easing-policy-and.html

5/19/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/word-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

Table VF-1 provides longer historical perspective of manufacturing in France. Output of manufacturing changed 0.0 percent in Feb 2015 and decreased 0.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2015. Manufacturing in France fell 14.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2008 and 4.2 percent in Dec 2009. Manufacturing recovered with growth of 6.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2010. Manufacturing fell 0.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2011 and 3.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2012. Manufacturing increased 0.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013 and changed 0.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2014.

Table VF-1, France, Manufacturing, Month and 12-Month ∆%

	Month ∆%	12-Month ∆%
Feb 2015	0.0	-0.8
Jan	-0.3	-0.7
Dec 2014	1.2	0.0
Nov	-0.5	-1.5
Oct	-0.3	-0.6
Sep	0.4	0.2
Aug	-0.3	-0.3
Jul	0.0	0.5
Jun	1.7	0.1
May	-2.5	-2.8
Apr	0.1	-0.2
Mar	-0.3	1.9
Feb	0.1	1.5
Jan	0.4	2.2
Dec 2013	-0.3	0.6
Nov	0.4	1.7
Oct	0.5	0.6
Sep	-0.1	-1.1
Aug	0.5	-3.2
Jul	-0.4	-2.0
Jun	-1.2	-0.3
May	0.1	0.2
Apr	2.2	0.1
Mar	-0.7	-3.8
Feb	0.8	-1.4
Jan	-1.2	-4.3
Dec 2012	0.8	-3.2
Nov	-0.7	-5.9
Oct	-1.2	-3.3
Sep	-2.2	-2.3
Aug	1.8	-0.7
Jul	1.3	-2.8
Jun	-0.7	-3.4
May	0.0	-5.1
Apr	-1.8	-3.2
Mar	1.8	-2.3
Feb	-2.2	-5.3
Jan	-0.1	-2.8
Dec 2011	-2.0	-0.5
Nov	2.1	2.1
Oct	-0.2	2.2
Sep	-0.6	1.5
Aug	-0.4	3.6
Jul	0.7	3.6
Jun	-2.5	3.3
May	2.0	5.0
Apr	-0.9	4.0
Mar	-1.3	5.4
Feb	0.5	9.1
Jan	2.2	8.5
Dec 2014		0.0
Dec 2013		0.6
Dec 2012		-3.2
Dec 2011		-0.5
Dec 2010		6.1
Dec 2009		-4.2
Dec 2008		-14.0
Dec 2007		-0.7
Dec 2006		2.8
Dec 2005		0.9
Dec 2004		1.1
Dec 2003		0.4
Dec 2002		-1.0
Dec 2001		-5.3
Dec 2000		4.9

Source:

Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=10&date=20150410

Chart VF-1 of the Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques provides France’s index of manufacturing, adjusted for working days and seasonal effects, from Jan 1990 to Feb 2015. Growth was robust in the 1990s and in recovery from the 2001 recession. Manufacturing output fell sharply during the global recession followed by recovery and another trend of decline followed by increase, new decline and stability.

Chart VF-1, France, Index of Manufacturing 2010=100, Jan 1990-Feb 2015, Seasonal and Working-Day Adjusted

Source:

Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=10&date=20150410

Chart VF-2 of France’s Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques shows indices of manufacturing in France from 2010 to 2014. Manufacturing, which is CZ in Chart VF-2, fell deeply in 2008 and part of 2009. All curves of industrial indices tend to flatten recently with oscillations and declines and marginal improvement followed by renewed decline/stability in the final segment with jump in Mar-Apr 2013. Manufacturing fell in May-Jul 2013 with mild recovery in Aug 2013 and decline in Sep 2013. Manufacturing increased in Oct-Nov 2013 and fell in Dec 2013. Manufacturing rebounded in Jan-Feb 2014, decreasing in Mar 2014. Manufacturing increased in Apr 2014 and contracted in May 2014. Manufacturing expanded in Jun 2014 and contracted in Jul-Aug 2014. Manufacturing grew in Sep 2014 and contracted in Oct-Nov 2014. Manufacturing rebounded in Dec 2014 and fell in Jan 2015, stabilizing in Feb 2015.

Chart VF-2, France, Industrial Production Indices 2010-2014 Legend: CZ : Manufacturing – (C1) : Manufacture of food products and beverages – (C3) : Electrical and electronic equipment; machine equipment – (C4) : Manufacture of transport equipment – (C5) : Other manufacturing

Source:

Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=10&date=20150410

France had been running a trade deficit fluctuating around €5,000 million that is declining as shown in Table VF-2. Exports increased 1.4 percent in Feb 2015 while imports increased 0.6 percent. The trade deficit decreased from revised €3710 million in Jan 2015 to €3449 million in Feb 2015.

Table VF-2, France, Exports, Imports and Trade Balance, € Millions 

	Exports	Imports	Trade Balance
Feb 2015	37,326	40,775	-3,449
Jan	36,804	40,514	-3,710
Dec 2014	37,748	41,034	-3,286
Nov	37,107	40,257	-3,150
Oct	36,928	41,026	-4,098
Sep	36,771	41,154	-4,383
Aug	36,267	41,019	-4,752
Jul	36,164	41,421	-5,257
Jun	36,690	41,760	-5,070
May	36,043	41,015	-4,972
Apr	36,109	39,970	-3,861
Mar	36,266	41,234	-4,968
Feb	36,234	40,158	-3,924
Jan	36,348	41,887	-5,539
Dec 2013	36,505	41,913	-5,408
Dec 2012	36,871	42,375	-5,504
Dec 2011	35,774	41,063	-5,289
Dec 2010	33,755	39,162	-5,407

Source: France, Direction générale des douanes et droits indirects

http://lekiosque.finances.gouv.fr/AppChiffre/Portail_default.asp

Table VF-3 provides month and 12-month percentage changes of France’s exports and imports. Exports increased 1.4 percent in Feb 2015 and increased 3.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2015. Imports increased 0.6 percent in Feb 2015 and increased 1.5 percent in 12 months. Growth of exports and imports has fluctuated in 2011, 2012 and 2013-2015 because of price surges of commodities and raw materials. Weak economic conditions worldwide also influence trade performance.

Table VF-3, France, Exports and Imports, Month and 12-Month ∆%

	Exports Month ∆%	Exports 12-Month ∆%	Imports Month ∆%	Imports 12-Month ∆%
Feb 2015	1.4	3.0	0.6	1.5
Dec 2014	1.7	3.4	1.9	-2.1
Dec 2013		-1.0		-1.1
Dec 2012		3.1		3.2
Dec 2011		6.0		4.9
Dec 2010		12.9		14.3
Dec 2009		-9.3		-2.0
Dec 2008		-6.8		-11.1
Dec 2007		5.6		8.1
Dec 2006		6.6		6.4
Dec 2005		11.8		15.6
Dec 2004		-3.7		5.8
Dec 2003		7.1		1.6

Source: France, Direction générale des douanes et droits indirects

http://lekiosque.finances.gouv.fr/AppChiffre/Portail_default.asp

Annual data for France’s exports, imports and trade balance are provided in Table VF-4. France’s trade balance deteriorated sharply from 2007 to 2011 with the deficit increasing from €42,494 million in 2007 to €74,510 million in 2011. Annual growth rates of exports have not been sufficiently high to compensate for growth of imports driven in part by commodity price increases. In 2012, the trade deficit declined to €67,281 million with growth of exports of 3.1 percent and of imports of 1.2 percent. The trade deficit declined to €60,811 million in 2013 with declines of exports of 1.2 percent and of 2.3 percent for imports. The trade deficit fell in 2014 to €53,636 million with increase of exports of 0.1 percent and decline of imports of 1.4 percent.

Table VF-4, France, Exports, Imports and Balance Year € Millions and ∆%

	Exports € Millions	∆%	Imports € Millions	∆%	Balance € Millions
Feb 2015 12 Months	437,610		488,486		-50,876
Year
2014	437,021	0.1	490,657	-1.4	-53,636
2013	436,568	-1.2	497,379	-2.3	-60,811
2012	441,960	3.1	509,241	1.2	-67,281
2011	428,609	8.5	503,119	12.4	-74,510
2010	395,039	14.0	447,483	14.2	-52,444
2009	346,481	-17.0	391,872	-17.3	-45,391
2008	417,636	2.7	473,853	5.5	-56,217
2007	406,487	3.0	448,981	5.8	-42,494
2006	394,621	9.5	424,549	10.4	-29,928
2005	360,376	4.4	384,588	9.6	-24,212
2004	345,256	5.4	350,996	7.0	-5,740
2003	327,653		327,884		-231

Source: France, Direction générale des douanes et droits indirects

http://lekiosque.finances.gouv.fr/AppChiffre/Portail_default.asp

VG Italy. Table VG-IT provides percentage changes in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier of Italy’s expenditure components in chained volume measures. GDP has been declining at sharper rates from minus 1.0 percent in IVQ2011 to minus 2.7 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.6 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.0 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.4 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.8 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.1 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and decreased 0.3 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and fell 0.5 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. The aggregate demand components of consumption and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) have been declining at faster rates. The rates of decline of GDP, consumption and GFCF were somewhat milder in IIIQ2013 and IVQ2013 than in IQ2013 and the final three quarters of 2012. Consumption fell 0.4 percent in IQ2014 and GFCF fell 2.5 percent. In IIQ2014, consumption decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier and GFCF fell 3.3 percent. GDP fell 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier while consumption increased 0.2 percent and GFCF fell 4.2 percent. GDP fell 0.5 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier while consumption increased 0.3 percent and GFCF fell 3.0 percent.

Table VG-IT, Italy, GDP and Expenditure Components, Chained Volume Measures, Quarter ∆% on Same Quarter Year Earlier

	GDP	Imports	Consumption	GFCF	Exports
2014
IVQ	-0.5	2.0	0.3	-3.0	3.8
IIIQ	-0.5	1.3	0.2	-4.2	1.7
IIQ	-0.3	2.8	-0.1	-3.3	2.6
IQ	-0.1	0.4	-0.4	-2.5	3.8
2013
IVQ	-0.8	0.8	-1.2	-4.1	1.2
IIIQ	-1.4	-1.5	-2.1	-4.2	0.0
IIQ	-2.0	-3.7	-2.5	-6.4	0.2
IQ	-2.6	-4.3	-2.7	-8.4	1.5
2012
IVQ	-2.7	-7.5	-3.3	-9.6	1.7
IIIQ	-3.1	-8.2	-3.5	-10.2	3.0
IIQ	-3.1	-8.9	-3.5	-9.6	1.6
IQ	-2.3	-8.7	-3.1	-8.1	1.8
2011
IVQ	-1.0	-7.1	-2.0	-4.5	2.5
IIIQ	0.4	0.3	-0.8	-2.3	4.6
IIQ	1.4	3.8	0.3	-0.6	7.5
IQ	2.0	8.4	0.7	0.7	10.2
2010
IVQ	2.3	14.6	1.3	0.9	13.0
IIIQ	1.8	12.9	1.1	0.6	12.4
IIQ	1.9	14.2	1.0	-0.4	13.2
IQ	0.7	6.7	0.9	-3.3	6.8
2009
IVQ	-3.5	-6.3	0.2	-8.2	-9.3
IIIQ	-5.0	-12.2	-0.8	-12.6	-16.4
IIQ	-6.6	-17.9	-1.4	-13.6	-21.4
IQ	-6.9	-17.2	-1.8	-12.4	-22.8
2008
IVQ	-3.0	-8.2	-0.9	-8.3	-10.3
IIIQ	-1.9	-5.0	-0.8	-4.5	-3.9
IIQ	-0.2	-0.1	-0.3	-1.5	0.4
IQ	0.5	1.7	0.1	-1.0	2.9

GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/151830

The Markit/ADACI Business Activity Index increased from 50.0 in Feb to 51.6 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/a6109b353f314494a0b5c5ffab4f1bde). Phil Smith, Economist at Markit and author of the Italy Services PMI^®, finds signs of expansion of private sector activity (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/a6109b353f314494a0b5c5ffab4f1bde). The Markit/ADACI Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®), increased from 51.9 in Feb to 53.3 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f6e9a5d5010446dc928834dcb0c58152). New export orders continued to increase. Phil Smith, Economist at Markit and author of the Italian Manufacturing PMI^®, finds strengthening conditions in manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f6e9a5d5010446dc928834dcb0c58152). Table IT provides the country data table for Italy.

Table IT, Italy, Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index	Mar month ∆%: 0.1 Mar 12-month ∆%: -0.1 Blog 4/5/15
Producer Price Index	Feb month ∆%: -0.5 Feb 12-month ∆%: -3.3 Blog 4/5/15
GDP Growth	IVQ2014/IIIQ2014 SA ∆%: 0.0 IVQ2014/IVQ2013 NSA ∆%: minus 0.5 Blog 3/17/13 6/16/13 8/11/13 9/15/13 11/17/13 12/15/13 2/16/14 3/16/14 5/18/14 6/15/14 8/10/14 8/31/14 10/19/14 11/16/14 12/7/14 2/15/15 3/15/15
Labor Report	Feb 2015 Participation rate 64.0% Employment ratio 55.7% Unemployment rate 12.7% Youth Unemployment 42.6% Blog 4/5/15
Industrial Production	Jan month ∆%: -0.7 12 months CA ∆%: minus 2.2 Blog 3/22/15
Retail Sales	Jan month ∆%: 0.1 Jan 12-month ∆%: 1.7 Blog 3/29/15
Business Confidence	Mfg Mar 103.7, Nov 99.5 Construction Mar 116.0, Nov 103.7 Blog 4/5/15
Trade Balance	Balance Jan SA €3917 million versus Dec €5076 Exports Jan month SA ∆%: minus 2.5; Imports month ∆%: 1.0 Exports 12 months Jan NSA ∆%: minus 3.2 Imports 12 months NSA ∆%: minus 3.2 Blog 3/22/15

Links to blog comments in Table IT:

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html

3/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

12/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/financial-risks-twenty-six-million.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

10/19/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/imf-view-squeeze-of-economic-activity.html

8/31/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitical-and-financial-risks.html

8/10/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/volatility-of-valuations-of-risk_10.html

6/15/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financialgeopolitical-risks-recovery.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

8/11/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/recovery-without-hiring-loss-of-full.html

6/16/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/recovery-without-hiring-seven-million.html

3/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

VH United Kingdom. Annual data in Table VH-UK show the strong impact of the global recession in the UK with decline of GDP of 4.3 percent in 2009 after dropping 0.3 percent in 2008. Recovery of 1.9 percent in 2010 is relatively low in comparison with annual growth rates in 2007 and earlier years. Growth was only 1.6 percent in 2011 and 0.7 percent in 2012. Growth increased to 1.7 percent in 2013 and 2.8 percent in 2014. The bottom part of Table VH-UK provides average growth rates of UK GDP since 1948. The UK economy grew at 2.6 percent per year on average between 1948 and 2014, which is relatively high for an advanced economy. The growth rate of GDP between 2000 and 2007 is higher at 2.9 percent. Growth in the current cyclical expansion from 2010 to 2014 has been only at 1.7 percent as advanced economies struggle with weak internal demand and world trade. GDP in 2014 higher by 4.0 percent relative to 2007 while it would have been 22.2 higher at trend of 2.9 percent as from 2000 to 2007.

Table VH-UK, UK, Gross Domestic Product, ∆%

	∆% on Prior Year
1998	3.5
1999	3.2
2000	3.8
2001	2.7
2002	2.5
2003	4.3
2004	2.5
2005	2.8
2006	3.0
2007	2.6
2008	-0.3
2009	-4.3
2010	1.9
2011	1.6
2012	0.7
2013	1.7
2014	2.8
Average Growth Rates ∆% per Year
1948-2014	2.6
1950-1959	3.1
1960-1969	3.1
1970-1979	2.6
1980-1989	3.1
1990-1999	2.2
2000-2007	2.9
2007-2013*	1.1
2007-2014*	4.0
2000-2014	1.7

*Absolute change from 2007 to 2013 and from 2007 to 2014

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/quarterly-national-accounts/q4-2014/index.html

The Business Activity Index of the Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI^® increased from 56.7 in Feb to 58.9 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/eea7d1909f424b1183ca33dba0220983). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds the combined indices consistent with the UK economy growing at around 0.7 percent in IQ2015 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/eea7d1909f424b1183ca33dba0220983). The Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®) increased to 54.4 in Mar from 54.0 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/755229914755421b894871d706a09d19). New export orders increased. Rob Dobson, Senior Economist at Markit that compiles the Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI^®, finds that manufacturing conditions suggest growth at a quarterly rate of 0.6 percent (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/755229914755421b894871d706a09d19). Table UK provides the economic indicators for the United Kingdom.

Table UK, UK Economic Indicators

CPI	Feb month ∆%: 0.3 Feb 12-month ∆%: 0.0 Blog 3/29/15
Output/Input Prices	Output Prices: Feb 12-month NSA ∆%: -1.8; excluding food, petroleum ∆%: 0.2 Input Prices: Feb 12-month NSA ∆%: -13.5 Excluding ∆%: -4.1 Blog 3/29/15
GDP Growth	IVQ2014 prior quarter ∆% 0.6; year earlier same quarter ∆%: 3.0 Blog 3/31/13 4/28/13 5/26/13 7/28/13 8/25/13 9/29/13 10/27/13 12/1/13 12/22/13 2/2/14 3/2/14 4/6/14 5/4/14 5/25/14 6/29/14 7/27/14 8/17/14 10/5/14 10/26/14 11/30/14 12/28/14 2/1/15 3/1/15 4/5/15
Industrial Production	Feb 2015/Feb 2014 ∆%: Production Industries 0.1; Manufacturing 1.1 Blog 4/12/15
Retail Sales	Jan month ∆%: -0.3 Jan 12-month ∆%: 5.4 Blog 2/22/15
Labor Market	Nov-Jan Unemployment Rate: 5.7%; Claimant Count 2.4%; Earnings Growth 1.8% Blog 3/22/15 LMGDP 3/22/15
GDP and the Labor Market	IVQ2014 Employment 102.6 IQ2008 =100 GDP IIIQ14 103.4 IQ2008=100 Blog 3/22/14
Trade Balance	Balance SA Feb minus ₤2859 million Exports Feb ∆%: -2.4; Dec-Feb ∆%: 0.5 Imports Feb ∆%: 0.7 Dec-Feb ∆%: -1.8 Blog 4/12/15

Links to blog comments in Table UK:

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html

3/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html

2/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html

12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

10/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/financial-oscillations-world-inflation.html

10/5/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/world-financial-turbulence-twenty-seven.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

7/27/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

5/4/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html

4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html

3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html

2/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

12/22/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html

12/1/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/exit-risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html

10/27/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/twenty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html

9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html

7/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html

5/26/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

4/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_28.html

03/31/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

The UK Office for National Statistics provides the output of production industries with revisions. Table VH-1 incorporates the latest available data for Feb 2015 with revised weights (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/iop/index-of-production/february-2015/index.html). Manufacturing accounts for 69.4 percent of the production industries of the UK and increased 1.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2015. Capital goods industries increased 1.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2015 after decreasing 0.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2015. Capital goods output increased 5.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2014, 4.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2014, 2.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014, 3.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2014 and 3.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014. Output of capital goods increased 2.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2014. Output of capital goods industries decreased 1.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013, increasing 1.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2013. Capital goods industries had been growing at very high rates during the current cyclical recovery but falling from the unsustainable high of 12.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2011. Mining and quarrying increased 12.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2013 and 4.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013, decreasing 3.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2014. Mining and quarrying increased 3.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014 and fell 0.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2014. Mining and quarrying increased 3.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2015 and fell 6.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2015. The 12-month rates of growth of the entire index of production industries registered declines for all 12 months from Mar 2011 to Aug 2013 with exception of 0.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2013. With exception of most months for capital goods and Sep to Dec 2012 for consumer durables, 12-month percentage changes of all segments are mostly negative from Jan to Dec 2012. Energy and mining have been drivers of decline. The upper part of Table VH-1 provides rates of change of yearly output. Manufacturing output fell 9.4 percent in 2009 after falling 2.8 percent in 2008 but grew at 4.7 percent in the initial phase of the recovery in 2010 and 1.8 percent in 2011 but fell 1.3 percent in 2012 and declined 0.7 percent in 2013. Manufacturing grew 2.9 percent in 2014.

Table VH-1, UK, Output of the Production Industries, Chained Volume Indices of Gross Value Added, 12-Month ∆%

Weight	PROD IND	MNG	MFG	CON DUR	CON NDUR	CAP	ENERGY
2010	3.1	-3.9	4.7	-2.6	-0.3	10.7	-2.1
2011	-0.8	-14.1	1.8	0.2	-0.8	6.6	-10.7
2012	-2.7	-10.8	-1.3	-2.0	-3.4	1.4	-8.7
2013	-0.5	-2.5	-0.7	-1.8	-1.0	1.5	-3.8
2014	1.6	-0.6	2.9	5.8	0.7	3.2	-3.6

		PROD IND	MNG	MFG	CON DUR	CON NDUR	CAP	ENERGY
2012	Dec	-2.5	-8.7	-1.8	2.4	-5.4	2.5	-6.4
2013	Jan	-3.3	-7.0	-3.6	0.4	-6.2	1.8	-5.6
	Feb	-2.7	-9.1	-2.5	-4.5	-5.1	3.0	-8.8
	Mar	-1.9	-13.1	-1.1	2.0	-3.6	3.6	-6.3
	Apr	-2.0	-7.0	-1.4	-1.6	-0.3	2.7	-6.2
	May	-2.1	-3.0	-2.3	-3.6	1.8	-0.3	-4.6
	Jun	0.9	-2.9	1.5	0.3	1.7	2.6	-5.8
	Jul	-1.7	-5.7	-1.5	-2.5	0.6	0.2	-6.1
	Aug	-1.9	-9.0	-1.0	-1.5	-2.3	0.4	-8.4
	Sep	2.6	14.1	0.2	-1.7	-1.5	1.9	6.4
	Oct	2.8	12.4	1.5	-6.5	0.5	2.3	2.9
	Nov	1.8	2.4	1.5	-	0.6	1.6	-0.7
	Dec	1.3	4.0	0.8	-2.7	2.6	-1.9	-0.2
2014	Jan	1.6	-3.2	2.4	1.7	-2.4	2.0	-5.5
	Feb	2.7	4.3	3.6	7.5	1.8	3.0	-1.0
	Mar	2.5	8.7	2.9	0.9	2.5	1.7	-1.1
	Apr	2.8	3.1	4.6	3.8	2.1	3.9	-4.5
	May	1.9	3.4	2.7	3.1	-1.3	3.3	-2.5
	Jun	0.9	-2.6	2.2	3.4	-1.5	3.4	-3.7
	Jul	1.4	-3.0	2.9	5.5	-0.4	2.5	-3.6
	Aug	1.5	-5.4	3.5	6.1	2.9	3.3	-4.6
	Sep	0.8	-4.4	2.6	9.3	1.0	3.3	-5.3
	Oct	1.0	-0.8	2.1	9.2	1.0	2.7	-1.3
	Nov	1.3	-0.9	3.2	7.7	2.4	4.1	-4.1
	Dec	0.8	-5.0	2.6	12.0	0.1	5.9	-5.9
2015	Jan	1.2	3.1	1.7	2.8	4.4	-0.2	0.7
	Feb	0.1	-6.0	1.1	2.0	-0.4	1.4	-4.0

Notes: PROD IND: Production Industries; MNG: Mining; MFG: Manufacturing; ENGY: Energy; CON DUR: Consumer Durables; CONS NDUR: Consumer Nondurables; CAP: Capital Goods

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/iop/index-of-production/february-2015/index.html

Percentage changes in the production industries and major components in a month relative to the prior month are shown in Table VH-2. The UK index of production increased 0.1 percent in Feb 2015 with manufacturing increasing 0.4 percent, capital goods increasing 1.6 percent and energy decreasing 1.4 percent. The UK index of production decreased 0.1 percent with decrease of manufacturing of 0.6 percent and decrease of capital goods of 3.6 percent. The UK index of production decreased 0.2 in Dec 2014 with manufacturing increasing 0.1 percent and capital goods 1.3 percent while energy fell 1.0 percent. The production index increased 0.1 percent in Nov 2014 with manufacturing increasing 0.8 percent and capital goods 0.7 percent while energy fell 2.6 percent. The UK index of production decreased 0.2 percent in Oct 2014 with decrease of manufacturing of 0.7 percent and decrease of capital goods of 1.1 percent. Energy increased 1.3 percent. The UK index of production increased 0.6 percent in Sep 2014 with increase of manufacturing of 0.6 percent and increase of capital goods of 2.2 percent. Energy increased 1.0 percent and mining and quarrying increased 3.3 percent. Fluctuations of monthly production are quite wide.

Table VH-2, UK, Output of the Production Industries, Chained Volume Indices of Gross Value Added, Latest Month on Previous Month ∆%

		PROD IND	MNG	MFG	CON DUR	CON NDUR	CAP	ENERGY
2012	Dec	0.9	1.3	1.4	2.1	0.3	3.2	0.4
2013	Jan	-0.9	1.0	-1.3	0.1	0.8	-1.6	0.5
	Feb	0.2	-1.0	-0.3	-7.5	-0.2	-1.0	-1.4
	Mar	0.2	-4.7	1.2	7.0	-	2.0	-0.7
	Apr	-0.2	3.7	-0.9	-0.3	1.0	-1.0	1.3
	May	0.5	2.5	0.4	-2.6	2.3	-1.2	0.4
	Jun	1.0	1.7	1.2	0.9	-0.7	1.9	-1.0
	Jul	-0.3	0.3	-0.5	-	-0.5	0.1	0.8
	Aug	-0.4	0.5	-0.6	-	-2.6	-1.6	-
	Sep	1.3	2.2	1.4	0.8	1.6	2.1	1.7
	Oct	-0.4	-2.0	-0.2	-2.3	-0.7	-0.6	-2.7
	Nov	-0.3	-2.8	-0.3	2.5	-0.6	-0.6	0.2
	Dec	0.4	2.8	0.6	-0.6	2.2	-0.4	0.9
2014	Jan	-0.6	-6.0	0.2	4.6	-4.1	2.3	-4.8
	Feb	1.3	6.7	1.0	-2.1	4.1	-	3.3
	Mar	-	-0.7	0.5	0.4	0.7	0.7	-0.8
	Apr	0.2	-1.6	0.7	2.6	0.6	1.1	-2.2
	May	-0.4	2.7	-1.4	-3.3	-1.0	-1.8	2.5
	Jun	-	-4.2	0.7	1.3	-1.0	2.1	-2.2
	Jul	0.2	-	0.2	1.9	0.6	-0.8	0.9
	Aug	-0.3	-2.0	-	0.6	0.7	-0.8	-1.1
	Sep	0.6	3.3	0.6	3.8	-0.3	2.2	1.0
	Oct	-0.2	1.7	-0.7	-2.4	-0.7	-1.1	1.3
	Nov	0.1	-2.9	0.8	1.1	0.8	0.7	-2.6
	Dec	-0.2	-1.4	0.1	3.3	-	1.3	-1.0
2015	Jan	-0.1	1.9	-0.6	-4.0	-	-3.6	1.8
	Feb	0.1	-2.7	0.4	-2.9	-0.7	1.6	-1.4

Notes: PROD IND: Production Industries; MNG: Mining; MFG: Manufacturing; ENGY: Energy; CON DUR: Consumer Durables; CONS NDUR: Consumer Nondurables; CAP: Capital Goods

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/iop/index-of-production/february-2015/index.html

Table VH-3 provides the breakdown of production in 12-month, monthly growth and percentage contributions.

Table VH-3, UK, Growth Rates and Percentage Point Contributions to the Index of Production

Sector	Summary Description	% of production	Month on same month a year ago growth (%)	Contribution to production (% points)
IoP	Index of Production	100.0	0.1	0.1
Sector B	Total Mining & Quarrying	15.7	-6.0	-0.85
5	Coal & Lignite	0.1	4.9	0.00
6	Crude petroleum & Natural gas	12.9	-12.0	-1.29
789	Other mining & quarrying	2.6	12.7	0.43
Sector C	Total Manufacturing	69.4	1.1	0.81
CA	Food, beverages & tobacco	10.1	1.3	0.13
CB	Textiles & leather products	2.2	-6.2	-0.13
CC	Wood, paper & printing	4.9	1.2	0.06
CD	Coke & petroleum	1.4	2.7	0.03
CE	Chemical products	4.0	7.9	0.31
CF	Pharmaceutical products	6.0	-4.4	-0.24
CG	Rubber & plastic products	5.3	-0.2	-0.01
CH	Metal products	7.4	3.8	0.29
CI	Computer, electronic & optical	4.4	1.1	0.05
CJ	Electrical equipment	2.0	1.3	0.03
CK	Machinery & equipment	5.4	-9.9	-0.51
CL	Transport equipment	10.3	6.1	0.73
CM	Other manufacturing & repair	6.07718677	1.2	0.07
Sector D	Total Electricity & Gas	7.1	5.9	0.39
35.1	Electric power generation, transmission & distribution	4.7	6	0.27
35.2-3	Manufacture of gas; distribution of gaseous fuels through mains; steam & aircon supply	2.4	5.8	0.12
Sector E	Total Water	7.9	-3.2	-0.27
36	Water collection, treatment & supply	2.1	1.8	0.04
37	Sewerage	2.4	-9.7	-0.26
38	Waste collection, treatment & disposal activities; materials recovery	3.3	-1.2	-0.04
39	Remediation activities & other waste management services	0.1	-1.5	0.00

Sector	Summary Description	% of production	Month on previous month growth (%)	Contribution to production (% points)
IoP	Index of Production	100.0	0.1	0.1
Sector B	Total Mining & Quarrying	15.7	-2.7	-0.37
5	Coal & Lignite	0.1	12.9	0.01
6	Crude petroleum & Natural gas	12.9	-3.8	-0.37
789	Other mining & quarrying	2.6	3.8	0.00
Sector C	Total Manufacturing	69.4	0.4	0.27
CA	Food, beverages & tobacco	10.1	-0.1	-0.01
CB	Textiles & leather products	2.2	3.5	0.07
CC	Wood, paper & printing	4.9	-1.6	-0.08
CD	Coke & petroleum	1.4	-0.6	-0.01
CE	Chemical products	4.0	1.6	0.07
CF	Pharmaceutical products	6.0	-1.7	-0.09
CG	Rubber & plastic products	5.3	-0.6	-0.03
CH	Metal products	7.4	1.1	0.09
CI	Computer, electronic & optical	4.4	-1.6	-0.07
CJ	Electrical equipment	2.0	1.8	0.04
CK	Machinery & equipment	5.4	2.0	0.09
CL	Transport equipment	10.3	1.6	0.21
CM	Other manufacturing & repair	6.1	0.2	0.01
Sector D	Total Electricity & Gas	7.1	1.2	0.08
35.1	Electric power generation, transmission & distribution	7.1	1.2	0.06
35.2-3	Manufacture of gas; distribution of gaseous fuels through mains; steam & aircon supply	4.7	1.1	0.02
Sector E	Total Water	2.4	1.4	0.12
36	Water collection, treatment & supply	7.9	0	0.00
37	Sewerage	2.1	1.7	0.04
38	Waste collection, treatment & disposal activities; materials recovery	2.4	2.2	0.07
39	Remediation activities & other waste management services	3.3	4.8	0.00

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/iop/index-of-production/february-2015/index.html

The UK’s trade account is in Table VH-4. In Feb 2015, the UK ran a deficit in trade of goods and services (total trade) of ₤2859 million. The deficit in trade of goods was ₤10,340 million and ₤9609 million in goods excluding oil. A surplus in services of ₤7481 million contributed to reducing the overall deficit in goods and services (-₤10,340 million plus ₤7481 million equal to ₤2859 million). Services have contributed to lower deficits and have softened the impact of the global recession on the UK economy. Exports of goods and services decreased 2.4 percent in Feb 2015 and increased 0.5 percent in the quarter Dec 2014-Feb 2015 relative to the same quarter a year earlier with imports increasing 0.7 percent in Feb and decreasing 1.8 percent in Dec 2014-Feb 2015 relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Excluding oil, UK exports of goods decreased 5.4 percent in Feb and increased 4.1 percent in Dec 2014-Feb 2015 relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Imports of goods excluding oil decreased 0.3 percent in Feb and increased 2.3 percent in Dec 2014-Feb 2015 relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Services exports decreased 0.6 percent in Feb and increased 3.4 percent in Dec 2014-Feb 2015 relative to the same quarter a year earlier while services imports increased 0.5 percent in Feb and decreased 4.4 percent in Dec 2014-Feb 2015 relative to the same quarter a year earlier.

Table VH-4, Value of UK Trade in Goods and Services, Balance of Payments Basis, ₤ Million SA and ∆%

	₤ Million SA Feb 2015	Month ∆%    Jan 2015	Dec 2014-Feb 2015 ∆% Dec 2013-Feb 2015
Total Trade
Exports	41,314	-2.4	0.5
Imports	44,173	0.7	-1.8
Balance	-2,859
Trade in Goods
Exports	23,161	-3.7	-1.6
Imports	33,501	0.8	-0.9
Balance	-10,340
Trade in Goods Excluding Oil
Exports	21,355	-5.4	4.1
Imports	30,964	-0.3	2.3
Balance	-9,609
Trade in Services
Exports	18,153	-0.6	3.4
Imports	10,672	0.5	-4.4
Balance	7,481

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/uktrade/uk-trade/february-2015/index.html

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015.