Global Portfolio Reallocations, Squeeze of Economic Activity by Carry Trades Induced by Zero Interest Rates, World Inflation Waves, United States Industrial Production, Collapse of United States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation, World Cyclical Slow Growth and Global Recession Risk
Carlos M. Pelaez
© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015
IB World Inflation Waves
IA Appendix: Transmission of Unconventional Monetary Policy
IB1 Theory
IB2 Policy
IB3 Evidence
IB4 Unwinding Strategy
IC United States Inflation
IC Long-term US Inflation
ID Current US Inflation
IE Theory and Reality of Economic History, Cyclical Slow Growth Not Secular Stagnation and Monetary Policy Based on Fear of Deflation
II United States Industrial Production
IIA Collapse of United States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation
III World Financial Turbulence
IIIA Financial Risks
IIIE Appendix Euro Zone Survival Risk
IIIF Appendix on Sovereign Bond Valuation
IV Global Inflation
V World Economic Slowdown
VA United States
VB Japan
VC China
VD Euro Area
VE Germany
VF France
VG Italy
VH United Kingdom
VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets
VII Economic Indicators
VIII Interest Rates
IX Conclusion
References
Appendixes
Appendix I The Great Inflation
IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies
IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact
IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort
IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis
IIIGA Monetary Policy with Deficit Financing of Economic Growth
IIIGB Adjustment during the Debt Crisis of the 1980s
VC China. China estimates an index of nonmanufacturing purchasing managers based on a sample of 1200 nonmanufacturing enterprises across the country (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Table CIPMNM provides this index and components. The total index increased from 55.7 in Jan 2011 to 58.0 in Mar 2012, decreasing to 53.9 in Aug 2013. The index decreased from 56.0 in Nov 2013 to 54.6 in Dec 2013, easing to 53.4 in Jan 2014. The index moved to 53.7 in Mar 2015. The index of new orders increased from 52.2 in Jan 2012 to 54.3 in Dec 2012 but fell to 50.1 in May 2013, barely above the neutral frontier of 50.0. The index of new orders stabilized at 51.0 in Nov-Dec 2013, easing to 50.9 in Jan 2014. The index of new orders moved to 50.3 in Mar 2015.
Table CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted
| Total Index | New Orders | Interm. | Subs Prices | Exp | |
| Mar 2015 | 53.7 | 50.3 | 50.0 | 48.4 | 58.8 |
| Feb | 53.9 | 51.2 | 52.5 | 51.2 | 58.7 |
| Jan | 53.7 | 50.2 | 47.6 | 46.9 | 59.6 |
| Dec 2014 | 54.1 | 50.5 | 50.1 | 47.3 | 59.5 |
| Nov | 53.9 | 50.1 | 50.6 | 47.7 | 59.7 |
| Oct | 53.8 | 51.0 | 52.0 | 48.8 | 59.9 |
| Sep | 54.0 | 49.5 | 49.8 | 47.3 | 60.9 |
| Aug | 54.4 | 50.0 | 52.2 | 48.3 | 61.2 |
| Jul | 54.2 | 50.7 | 53.4 | 49.5 | 61.5 |
| Jun | 55.0 | 50.7 | 56.0 | 50.8 | 60.4 |
| May | 55.5 | 52.7 | 54.5 | 49.0 | 60.7 |
| Apr | 54.8 | 50.8 | 52.4 | 49.4 | 61.5 |
| Mar | 54.5 | 50.8 | 52.8 | 49.5 | 61.5 |
| Feb | 55.0 | 51.4 | 52.1 | 49.0 | 59.9 |
| Jan | 53.4 | 50.9 | 54.5 | 50.1 | 58.1 |
| Dec 2013 | 54.6 | 51.0 | 56.9 | 52.0 | 58.7 |
| Nov | 56.0 | 51.0 | 54.8 | 49.5 | 61.3 |
| Oct | 56.3 | 51.6 | 56.1 | 51.4 | 60.5 |
| Sep | 55.4 | 53.4 | 56.7 | 50.6 | 60.1 |
| Aug | 53.9 | 50.9 | 57.1 | 51.2 | 62.9 |
| Jul | 54.1 | 50.3 | 58.2 | 52.4 | 63.9 |
| Jun | 53.9 | 50.3 | 55.0 | 50.6 | 61.8 |
| May | 54.3 | 50.1 | 54.4 | 50.7 | 62.9 |
| Apr | 54.5 | 50.9 | 51.1 | 47.6 | 62.5 |
| Mar | 55.6 | 52.0 | 55.3 | 50.0 | 62.4 |
| Feb | 54.5 | 51.8 | 56.2 | 51.1 | 62.7 |
| Jan | 56.2 | 53.7 | 58.2 | 50.9 | 61.4 |
| Dec 2012 | 56.1 | 54.3 | 53.8 | 50.0 | 64.6 |
| Nov | 55.6 | 53.2 | 52.5 | 48.4 | 64.6 |
| Oct | 55.5 | 51.6 | 58.1 | 50.5 | 63.4 |
| Sep | 53.7 | 51.8 | 57.5 | 51.3 | 60.9 |
| Aug | 56.3 | 52.7 | 57.6 | 51.2 | 63.2 |
| Jul | 55.6 | 53.2 | 49.7 | 48.7 | 63.9 |
| Jun | 56.7 | 53.7 | 52.1 | 48.6 | 65.5 |
| May | 55.2 | 52.5 | 53.6 | 48.5 | 65.4 |
| Apr | 56.1 | 52.7 | 57.9 | 50.3 | 66.1 |
| Mar | 58.0 | 53.5 | 60.2 | 52.0 | 66.6 |
| Feb | 57.3 | 52.7 | 59.0 | 51.2 | 63.8 |
| Jan | 55.7 | 52.2 | 58.2 | 51.1 | 65.3 |
Notes: Interm.: Intermediate; Subs: Subscription; Exp: Business Expectations
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Chart CIPMNM provides China’s nonmanufacturing purchasing managers’ index. The index fell from 56.0 in Oct 2013 to 53.7 in Mar 2015.
Chart CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english
Table CIPMMFG provides the index of purchasing managers of manufacturing seasonally adjusted of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The general index (IPM) rose from 50.5 in Jan 2012 to 53.3 in Apr 2012, falling to 49.2 in Aug 2012, rebounding to 50.6 in Dec 2012. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013, barely above the neutral frontier at 50.0, recovering to 51.4 in Nov 2013 but falling to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.5 in Jan 2014, 50.1 in Dec 2014 and 50.1 in Mar 2015. The index of new orders fell from 54.5 in Apr 2012 to 51.2 in Dec 2012. The index of new orders fell from 52.3 in Nov 2013 to 52.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.9 in Jan 2014 and moved to 50.4 in Dec 2014. The index moved to 50.2 in Mar 2015.
Table CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted
| IPM | PI | NOI | INV | EMP | SDEL | |
| 2015 | ||||||
| Mar | 50.1 | 52.1 | 50.2 | 48.0 | 48.4 | 50.1 |
| Feb | 49.9 | 51.4 | 50.4 | 48.2 | 47.8 | 49.9 |
| Jan | 49.8 | 51.7 | 50.2 | 47.3 | 47.9 | 50.2 |
| 2014 | ||||||
| Dec | 50.1 | 52.2 | 50.4 | 47.5 | 48.1 | 49.9 |
| Nov | 50.3 | 52.5 | 50.9 | 47.7 | 48.2 | 50.3 |
| Oct | 50.8 | 53.1 | 51.6 | 48.4 | 48.4 | 50.1 |
| Sep | 51.1 | 53.6 | 52.2 | 48.8 | 48.2 | 50.1 |
| Aug | 51.1 | 53.2 | 52.5 | 48.6 | 48.2 | 50.0 |
| Jul | 51.7 | 54.2 | 53.6 | 49.0 | 48.3 | 50.2 |
| Jun | 51.0 | 53.0 | 52.8 | 48.0 | 48.6 | 50.5 |
| May | 50.8 | 52.8 | 52.3 | 48.0 | 48.2 | 50.3 |
| Apr | 50.4 | 52.5 | 51.2 | 48.1 | 48.3 | 50.1 |
| Mar | 50.3 | 52.7 | 50.6 | 47.8 | 48.3 | 49.8 |
| Feb | 50.2 | 52.6 | 50.5 | 47.4 | 48.0 | 49.9 |
| Jan | 50.5 | 53.0 | 50.9 | 47.8 | 48.2 | 49.8 |
| Dec 2013 | 51.0 | 53.9 | 52.0 | 47.6 | 48.7 | 50.5 |
| Nov | 51.4 | 54.5 | 52.3 | 47.8 | 49.6 | 50.6 |
| Oct | 51.4 | 54.4 | 52.5 | 48.6 | 49.2 | 50.8 |
| Sep | 51.1 | 52.9 | 52.8 | 48.5 | 49.1 | 50.8 |
| Aug | 51.0 | 52.6 | 52.4 | 48.0 | 49.3 | 50.4 |
| Jul | 50.3 | 52.4 | 50.6 | 47.6 | 49.1 | 50.1 |
| Jun | 50.1 | 52.0 | 50.4 | 47.4 | 48.7 | 50.3 |
| May | 50.8 | 53.3 | 51.8 | 47.6 | 48.8 | 50.8 |
| Apr | 50.6 | 52.6 | 51.7 | 47.5 | 49.0 | 50.8 |
| Mar | 50.9 | 52.7 | 52.3 | 47.5 | 49.8 | 51.1 |
| Feb | 50.1 | 51.2 | 50.1 | 49.5 | 47.6 | 48.3 |
| Jan | 50.4 | 51.3 | 51.6 | 50.1 | 47.8 | 50.0 |
| Dec 2012 | 50.6 | 52.0 | 51.2 | 47.3 | 49.0 | 48.8 |
| Nov | 50.6 | 52.5 | 51.2 | 47.9 | 48.7 | 49.9 |
| Oct | 50.2 | 52.1 | 50.4 | 47.3 | 49.2 | 50.1 |
| Sep | 49.8 | 51.3 | 49.8 | 47.0 | 48.9 | 49.5 |
| Aug | 49.2 | 50.9 | 48.7 | 45.1 | 49.1 | 50.0 |
| Jul | 50.1 | 51.8 | 49.0 | 48.5 | 49.5 | 49.0 |
| Jun | 50.2 | 52.0 | 49.2 | 48.2 | 49.7 | 49.1 |
| May | 50.4 | 52.9 | 49.8 | 45.1 | 50.5 | 49.0 |
| Apr | 53.3 | 57.2 | 54.5 | 48.5 | 51.0 | 49.6 |
| Mar | 53.1 | 55.2 | 55.1 | 49.5 | 51.0 | 48.9 |
| Feb | 51.0 | 53.8 | 51.0 | 48.8 | 49.5 | 50.3 |
| Jan | 50.5 | 53.6 | 50.4 | 49.7 | 47.1 | 49.7 |
IPM: Index of Purchasing Managers; PI: Production Index; NOI: New Orders Index; EMP: Employed Person Index; SDEL: Supplier Delivery Time Index
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
China estimates the manufacturing index of purchasing managers on the basis of a sample of 820 enterprises (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Chart CIPMMFG provides the manufacturing index of purchasing managers. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013. The index decreased from 51.4 in Nov 2013 to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index moved to 50.1 in Mar 2015.
Chart CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Cumulative growth of China’s GDP in IVQ2014 relative to the same period in 2013 was 7.4 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDP. Secondary industry accounts for 42.6 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2014. In cumulative IVQ2014, industry accounts for 35.8 percent of GDP and construction for 7.0 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 48.2 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2014 and primary industry for 9.2 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is shifting to lower growth rates with improvement in living standards. The bottom block of Table VC-GDP provides quarter-on-quarter growth rates of GDP and their annual equivalent. China’s GDP growth decelerated significantly from annual equivalent 10.4 percent in IIQ2011 to 7.4 percent in IVQ2011 and 5.7 percent in IQ2012, rebounding to 8.7 percent in IIQ2012, 8.2 percent in IIIQ2012 and 7.8 percent in IVQ2012. Annual equivalent growth in IQ2013 fell to 7.0 percent and to 7.4 percent in IIQ2013, rebounding to 9.5 percent in IIIQ2013. Annual equivalent growth was 7.4 percent in IVQ2013, declining to 6.6 percent in IQ2014 and increasing to 7.8 percent in IIQ2014. Annual equivalent growth slowed to 7.8 percent in IIIQ2014 and 6.1 percent in IVQ2014.
Table VC-GDP, China, Quarterly Growth of GDP, Current CNY 100 Million and Inflation Adjusted ∆%
| Cumulative GDP IVQ2014 | Value Current CNY Billion | 2014 Year-on-Year Constant Prices ∆% |
| GDP | 63,646.3 | 7.4 |
| Primary Industry | 5833.2 | 4.1 |
| Farming | 6015.1 | 4.2 |
| Secondary Industry | 27,139.2 | 7.3 |
| Industry | 22,799.1 | 7.0 |
| Construction | 4472.5 | 8.9 |
| Tertiary Industry | 30,673.9 | 8.1 |
| Transport, Storage, Post | 2875.0 | 7.0 |
| Wholesale, Retail Trades | 6221.6 | 9.5 |
| Accommodation and Restaurants | 1119.9 | 6.2 |
| Finance | 4695.4 | 10.2 |
| Real Estate | 3816.7 | 2.3 |
| Other | 11631.1 | 8.8 |
| Growth in Quarter Relative to Prior Quarter | ∆% on Prior Quarter | ∆% Annual Equivalent |
| 2014 | ||
| IVQ2014 | 1.5 | 6.1 |
| IIIQ2014 | 1.9 | 7.8 |
| IIQ2014 | 1.9 | 7.8 |
| IQ2014 | 1.6 | 6.6 |
| 2013 | ||
| IVQ2013 | 1.8 | 7.4 |
| IIIQ2013 | 2.3 | 9.5 |
| IIQ2013 | 1.8 | 7.4 |
| IQ2013 | 1.7 | 7.0 |
| 2012 | ||
| IVQ2012 | 1.9 | 7.8 |
| IIIQ2012 | 2.0 | 8.2 |
| IIQ2012 | 2.1 | 8.7 |
| IQ2012 | 1.4 | 5.7 |
| 2011 | ||
| IVQ2011 | 1.8 | 7.4 |
| IIIQ2011 | 2.2 | 9.1 |
| IIQ2011 | 2.5 | 10.4 |
| IQ2011 | 2.3 | 9.5 |
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Growth of China’s GDP in IVQ2014 relative to the same period in 2013 was 7.3 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDPA. Secondary industry accounts for 42.6 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2014. In cumulative IVQ2014, industry accounts for 35.8 percent of GDP and construction for 7.0 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 48.2 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2014 and primary industry for 9.2 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is changing to lower growth rates while improving living standards. GDP growth decelerated from 12.1 percent in IQ2010 and 11.2 percent in IIQ2010 to 7.8 percent in IQ2013, 7.5 percent in IIQ2013 and 7.9 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP grew 7.6 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to IIIQ2013, which is equivalent to 7.4 percent per year. GDP grew 7.4 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.6 percent in IQ2014 that is equivalent to 6.6 percent per year. GP grew 7.5 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.9 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is equivalent 7.8 percent. In IIIQ2014, GDP grew 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier and 1.9 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is 7.8 percent in annual equivalent. GDP grew 1.5 percent in IVQ2014, which is 6.1 percent in annual equivalent and 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier.
Table VC-GDPA, China, Growth Rate of GDP, ∆% Relative to a Year Earlier and ∆% Relative to Prior Quarter
| IQ 2013 | IIQ 2013 | IIIQ 2013 | IVQ 2013 | IQ 2014 | IIQ 2014 | IIIQ 2014 | IVQ 2014 | |
| GDP | 7.8 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 7.3 |
| Primary Industry | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.1 |
| Secondary Industry | 7.8 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.3 |
| Tertiary Industry | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 8.1 |
| GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| IQ 2011 | IIQ 2011 | IIIQ 2011 | IVQ 2011 | IQ 2012 | IIQ 2012 | IIIQ 2012 | IVQ 2012 | |
| GDP | 9.7 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 7.9 |
| Primary Industry | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.5 |
| Secondary Industry | 11.1 | 11.0 | 10.8 | 10.6 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 8.1 |
| Tertiary Industry | 9.1 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 8.1 |
| GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| IQ 2010 | IIQ 2010 | IIIQ 2010 | IVQ 2010 | |||||
| GDP | 12.1 | 11.2 | 10.7 | 12.1 | ||||
| Primary Industry | 3.8 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 3.8 | ||||
| Secondary Industry | 14.5 | 13.3 | 12.6 | 14.5 | ||||
| Tertiary Industry | 10.5 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 10.5 |
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Chart VC-GDP of the National Bureau of Statistics of China provides annual value and growth rates of GDP. China’s GDP growth in 2013 is still high at 7.7 percent but at the lowest rhythm in five years.
Chart VC-GDP, China, Gross Domestic Product, Million Yuan and ∆%, 2009-2013
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Chart VC-FXR provides China’s foreign exchange reserves. FX reserves grew from $2399.2 billion in 2009 to $3821.3 billion in 2013 driven by high growth of China’s trade surplus.
Chart VC-FXR, China, Foreign Exchange Reserves, 2009-2013
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english
Chart VC-Trade provides China’s imports and exports. Exports exceeded imports with resulting large trade balance surpluses that increased foreign exchange reserves.
Chart VC-Trade, China, Imports and Exports of Goods, 2009-2013, $100 Million US Dollars
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english
The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) compiled by Markit (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/36e42fb4a12a4d8f94bf449e38ef2b2e) is weakening. The overall Flash HSBC China Manufacturing PMI™ decreased from 50.7 in Feb to 49.2 in Mar, while the Flash HSBC China Manufacturing Output Index decreased from 51.7 in Feb to 50.8 in Mar, indicating moderate growth. Exports orders indicate contraction. Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds moderate deterioration in manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/36e42fb4a12a4d8f94bf449e38ef2b2e). The HSBC China Services PMI™, compiled by Markit, shows the HSBC Composite Output, combining manufacturing and services, unchanged from 51.8 in Feb to 51.8 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/9a0545fb09ca43af984c9e78444837d5). Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds modest output growth (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/9a0545fb09ca43af984c9e78444837d5). The HSBC China Services Business Activity index increased from 52.0 in Feb to 52.3 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/9a0545fb09ca43af984c9e78444837d5). Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds that the services PMI shows sustained activity at modest pace (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/9a0545fb09ca43af984c9e78444837d5). The HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™), compiled by Markit, decreased to 49.6 in Mar from 50.7 in Feb, indicating moderate deterioration in manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/2c31cfa7df914ac09be4c0b5d1da2988). New export orders declined modestly. Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds weak internal and external demand (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/2c31cfa7df914ac09be4c0b5d1da2988). Table CNY provides the country data table for China.
Table CNY, China, Economic Indicators
| Price Indexes for Industry | Mar 12-month ∆%: minus 4.6 Mar month ∆%: -0.1 |
| Consumer Price Index | Mar 12-month ∆%: 1.4 Feb month ∆%: -0.5 |
| Value Added of Industry | Mar month ∆%: 0.25 Jan-Mar 2015/Jan-Mar 2014 ∆%: 6.4 |
| GDP Growth Rate | Year IVQ2014 ∆%: 7.3 First Four Quarters 2014 ∆%: 7.4 |
| Investment in Fixed Assets | Total Jan-Mar 2015 ∆%: 13.5 Real estate development: 8.5 |
| Retail Sales | Mar month ∆%: 0.71 Jan-Mar ∆%: 10.6 |
| Trade Balance | Mar balance $3.08 billion Cumulative Mar 2015: $124.03 billion |
Links to blog comments in Table CNY:
4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html
1/25/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/01/competitive-currency-conflicts-world.html
Cumulative and 12-months rates of value added of industry in China are provided in Table VC-1. Industry’s value added grew 6.4 percent in Jan-Mar 2015 relative to a year earlier and 5.6 percent in the 12 months ending in mar 2015. Value added of industry increased 6.8 percent in Jan-Feb 2015 relative to the same period a year earlier. Value added of industry increased 8.3 percent in Jan-Dec 2014 relative to a year earlier and 7.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2014. Value added of industry increased 8.3 percent in Jan-Nov 2014 relative to a year earlier and 7.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2014. Value added of industry grew 8.4 percent in Jan-Oct 2014 relative to a year earlier and 7.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014. Value added of industry grew 8.5 percent in Jan-Sep 2014 relative to a year earlier and 8.0 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing grew 7.2 percent in Jan-Mar 2015 relative to a year earlier and 6.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2015. Mining and quarrying grew 3.2 percent in Jan-Mar 2015 relative to a year earlier and 1.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2015. Growth of total industry decelerated from cumulative 14.4 percent in Jan-Mar 2011 to 9.7 percent in Jan-Dec 2013, 8.3 percent in Jan-Dec 2014 and 6.4 percent in Jan-Mar 2015.
Table VC-1, China, Growth Rate of Value Added of Industry ∆%
| Industry | Mining & Quarrying | Manufac-turing | State | Joint-Stock | |
| 2015 | |||||
| Jan-Mar | 6.4 | 3.2 | 7.2 | 1.7 | 7.4 |
| 12 Mar | 5.6 | 1.4 | 6.7 | 0.9 | 6.8 |
| Jan-Feb | 6.8 | 4.2 | 7.5 | 2.2 | 7.7 |
| 2014 | |||||
| Jan-Dec | 8.3 | 4.5 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 9.7 |
| 12M Dec | 7.9 | 3.4 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 9.3 |
| Jan-Nov | 8.3 | 4.6 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 9.7 |
| 12M Nov | 7.2 | 3.0 | 8.1 | 2.8 | 8.7 |
| Jan-Oct | 8.4 | 4.8 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 9.8 |
| 12M Oct | 7.7 | 4.7 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 9.1 |
| Jan-Sep | 8.5 | 4.8 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 9.9 |
| 12M Sep | 8.0 | 3.9 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 9.3 |
| Jan-Aug | 8.5 | 4.9 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 10.0 |
| 12M Aug | 6.9 | 4.2 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 9.7 |
| Jan-Jul | 8.8 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 3.4 |
| 12M Jul | 9.0 | 6.2 | 10.0 | 5.8 | 4.4 |
| Jan-Jun | 8.8 | 4.6 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 10.2 |
| 12M Jun | 9.2 | 7.9 | 9.8 | 7.3 | 10.8 |
| Jan-May | 8.7 | 3.8 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 10.1 |
| 12M May | 8.8 | 4.3 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 10.3 |
| Jan-Apr | 8.7 | 3.6 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 10.1 |
| 12M Apr | 8.7 | 4.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 10.3 |
| Jan-Mar | 8.7 | 3.3 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 10.0 |
| 12 M Mar | 8.8 | 2.9 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 10.1 |
| Jan-Feb | 8.6 | 3.5 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 9.9 |
| 2013 | |||||
| Jan-Dec | 9.7 | 6.4 | 10.5 | 6.9 | 11.0 |
| 12M Dec | 9.7 | 5.4 | 10.7 | 8.3 | 10.8 |
| Jan-Nov | 9.7 | 6.4 | 10.5 | 6.8 | 4.4 |
| 12M Nov | 10.0 | 5.6 | 11.0 | 9.1 | 2.4 |
| Jan-Oct | 9.7 | 6.5 | 10.4 | 6.5 | 11.0 |
| 12M Oct | 10.3 | 4.3 | 11.4 | 8.4 | 11.1 |
| Jan-Sep | 9.6 | 6.7 | 10.3 | 6.3 | 11.0 |
| 12M Sep | 10.2 | 4.9 | 11.1 | 7.8 | 11.1 |
| Jan-Aug | 9.5 | 6.9 | 10.2 | 6.1 | 11.0 |
| 12M Aug | 10.4 | 5.8 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 11.7 |
| Jan-Jul | 9.4 | 7.1 | 10.1 | 5.6 | 10.9 |
| 12M Jun | 9.7 | 5.5 | 10.5 | 8.1 | 11.1 |
| Jan-Jun | 9.3 | 7.3 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 10.9 |
| 12M Jun | 8.9 | 5.8 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 10.5 |
| Jan-May | 9.4 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 11.0 |
| 12M May | 9.2 | 8.0 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 10.7 |
| Jan-Apr | 9.4 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 11.1 |
| 12 M Apr | 9.3 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 10.9 |
| Jan-Mar | 9.5 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 11.3 |
| 12 M Mar | 8.9 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 11.0 |
| Jan-Feb | 9.9 | 9.1 | 10.2 | 5.8 | 11.4 |
| 2012 | |||||
| Jan-Dec 2012 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 11.8 |
| 12 M Dec | 10.3 | 9.6 | 10.6 | 8.0 | 12.1 |
| Jan-Nov | 10.0 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 11.8 |
| 12 M Nov | 10.1 | 9.2 | 10.5 | 7.2 | 11.8 |
| Jan-Oct | 10.0 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 6.4 | 11.8 |
| 12 M Oct | 9.6 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 7.0 | 11.7 |
| Jan-Sep | 10.0 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 6.3 | 11.8 |
| 12 M Sep | 9.2 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 11.0 |
| Jan-Aug | 10.1 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 15.4 |
| 12 M Aug | 8.9 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 14.3 |
| Jan-Jul | 10.3 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 12.1 |
| 12 M Jul | 9.2 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 10.9 |
| Jan-Jun | 10.5 | 11.1 | 10.1 | 7.0 | 12.4 |
| 12 M Jun | 9.5 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 11.5 |
| Jan-May | 10.7 | 11.5 | 10.3 | 6.7 | 12.4 |
| 12 M May | 9.6 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 6.6 | 11.0 |
| Jan-Apr | 11.0 | 12.3 | 10.5 | 6.6 | 12.9 |
| 12 M Apr | 9.3 | 10.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 10.7 |
| Jan-Mar | 11.6 | 13.2 | 11.0 | 7.2 | 13.8 |
| 12 M Mar | 11.9 | 13.9 | 11.2 | 8.0 | 13.7 |
| Jan-Feb | 11.4 | 12.7 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 13.9 |
| 2011 | |||||
| Jan-Dec | 13.9 | 13.0 | 14.3 | 9.9 | 15.8 |
| 12 M Dec | 12.8 | 12.6 | 13.0 | 9.2 | 14.7 |
| Jan-Nov | 14.0 | 13.0 | 14.4 | 9.9 | 16.0 |
| 12 M Nov | 12.4 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 14.4 |
| Jan-Oct | 14.1 | 13.0 | 14.5 | 10.1 | 9.1 |
| 12 M Oct | 13.2 | 12.1 | 13.7 | 8.9 | 15.1 |
| Jan-Sep | 14.2 | 13.1 | 14.6 | 10.4 | 16.1 |
| 12 M Sep | 13.8 | 12.8 | 14.3 | 9.9 | 16.0 |
| Jan-Aug | 14.2 | 13.1 | 14.6 | 10.4 | 16.1 |
| 12 M Aug | 13.5 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 9.4 | 15.5 |
| Jan-Jul | 14.3 | ||||
| 12 M | 14.0 | 12.8 | 14.5 | 9.5 | |
| Jan-Jun | 14.3 | 13.1 | 14.7 | 10.7 | 19.7 |
| 12 M | 15.1 | 13.9 | 15.6 | 10.7 | 20.8 |
| Jan-May | 14.0 | 12.9 | 14.4 | 10.7 | 19.3 |
| 12 M May | 13.3 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 8.9 | 18.7 |
| Jan-Apr | 14.2 | 12.9 | 14.7 | 11.2 | 19.5 |
| 12 M Apr | 13.4 | 11.9 | 14.0 | 10.4 | 18.0 |
| Jan-Mar | 14.4 | 13.1 | 14.9 | 11.4 | 19.8 |
| 12 M Mar | 14.8 | 12.8 | 15.6 | 12.9 | 19.2 |
| 12 M Feb | 14.9 | 13.1 | 15.6 | 10.5 | 21.7 |
| Jan-Feb | 14.1 | 13.3 | 14.4 | 10.6 | 20.3 |
*After Jun 2013 Heavy Industry is Manufacturing and Light Industry is Mining and Quarrying
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Chart VC-1 provides 12-month percentage changes of value added of industry in China. The yearly rate of industry fell from 9.7 percent in Dec 2013 to 7.9 percent in Dec 2014 and 5.6 percent in Mar 2015.
Chart VC-1, China, Growth Rate of Total Value Added of Industry, 12-Month ∆%
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Yearly rates of growth for the past 12 months and cumulative relative to the earlier year of various segments of industrial production in China are provided in Table VC-2. There is deceleration to minus 0.1 percent of electricity output in Jan-Mar 2015 relative to a year earlier and decrease of 3.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2015. There are weaker readings in most segments with exception of 7.7 percent for nonferrous metals. Rates from Jan to Dec 2011 relative to the same period a year earlier fluctuated but mostly above 10 percent with the exception of motor vehicles and crude oil. There is deceleration in Jan-Dec 2012 of percentage change with no segment showing growth exceeding 10 percent with exception of 12-month growth of 13.5 percent for pig iron and 16.7 percent for nonferrous metals. In Jan-Sep 2013, many segments grew at rates exceeding or around 10 percent with exception of electricity at 6.8 percent, crude oil at 4.2 percent and pig iron at 6.9 percent. Electricity fell from growth of 16.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2011 to 0.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2012, rebounding to 4.8 percent in Aug 2012 but declining to 1.5 percent in Sep 2012, increasing to 3.9 percent in Oct 2012, 7.9 percent in Nov 2012 and 7.6 percent in Dec 2012. Electricity grew 6.8 percent in Jan-Jul 2013 relative to a year earlier and increased 8.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2013. Electricity output increased 7.6 percent in Jan-Dec 2013 relative to a year earlier and 8.3 percent in 12 months ending in Dec 2013. Auto production jumped to 18.4 percent in Jan-Dec 2013 relative to a year earlier and 22.8 percent in 12 months ending in Dec 2013.
Table VC-2, China, Industrial Production Operation ∆%
| Elec- | Pig Iron | Cement | Crude | Non- | Autos | |
| 2015 | ||||||
| Jan-Mar | -0.1 | -2.3 | -3.4 | 4.2 | 7.7 | 4.7 |
| 12 Mar | -3.7 | -2.4 | -20.5 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 3.5 |
| Jan-Feb | 1.9 | 0.0 | 11.2 | 3.5 | 6.8 | 4.6 |
| 2014 | ||||||
| Jan-Dec | 3.2 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 7.1 |
| 12M Dec | 1.3 | 3.7 | -1.4 | 6.3 | 15.4 | 3.7 |
| Jan-Nov | 3.9 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 8.4 |
| 12M Nov | 0.6 | 0.9 | -4.0 | 5.5 | 7.9 | 2.6 |
| Jan-Oct | 4.2 | 0.1 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 9.0 |
| 12M Oct | 1.9 | -3.1 | -1.1 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 6.8 |
| Jan-Sep | 4.4 | 0.4 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 6.6 | 9.3 |
| 12M Sep | 4.1 | -0.5 | -2.2 | 9.1 | 8.2 | 4.5 |
| Jan-Aug | 4.4 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 6.4 | 9.9 |
| 12M Aug | -2.2 | 0.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 9.5 | 3.1 |
| Jan-Jul | 5.5 | 0.4 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 5.9 | 10.9 |
| 12M Jul | 3.3 | -0.6 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 7.8 | 10.5 |
| Jan-Jun | 5.8 | 0.5 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 5.4 | 10.9 |
| 12 M Jun | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 11.2 |
| Jan-May | 5.7 | 0.2 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 4.9 | 10.8 |
| 12 M May | 5.9 | 0.2 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 12.2 |
| Jan-Apr | 5.6 | 0.2 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 5.4 | 8.3 |
| 12 M Apr | 4.4 | -0.8 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 7.9 |
| Jan-Mar | 5.8 | 0.1 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 6.7 | 10.8 |
| 12 M Mar | 6.2 | -0.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 7.1 | 7.3 |
| Jan-Feb | 5.5 | 0.2 | 2.4 | -1.0 | 6.1 | 12.5 |
| 2013 | ||||||
| Jan-Dec | 7.6 | 6.2 | 9.6 | 3.3 | 9.9 | 18.4 |
| 12M Dec | 8.3 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 22.8 |
| Jan-Nov | 7.0 | 5.9 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 10.5 | 18.1 |
| 12M Nov | 6.8 | 0.6 | 10.0 | -0.6 | 13.7 | 25.6 |
| Jan-Oct | 7.0 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 10.3 | 17.2 |
| 12M Oct | 8.4 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 12.9 | 25.5 |
| Jan-Sep | 6.8 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 9.8 | 15.3 |
| 12M Sep | 8.2 | 11.2 | 6.4 | -1.2 | 10.1 | 17.5 |
| Jan-Aug | 6.4 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 9.7 | 15.1 |
| 12M Aug | 13.4 | 11.1 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 14.8 |
| Jan-Jul | 5.2 | 6.0 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 10.3 | 15.1 |
| 12 M Jul | 8.1 | 5.0 | 9.1 | 7.1 | 9.8 | 15.4 |
| Jan-Jun | 4.4 | 5.7 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 10.0 | 15.2 |
| 12 M Jun | 6.0 | 2.9 | 8.8 | 10.8 | 6.7 | 13.5 |
| Jan-May | 4.0 | 10.8 | 8.9 | 2.9 | 10.9 | 15.4 |
| 12 M May | 4.1 | 11.3 | 8.5 | 2.4 | 7.5 | 15.7 |
| Jan-Apr | 3.8 | 10.5 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 11.4 | 15.4 |
| 12 M Apr | 6.2 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 2.5 | 10.3 | 18.3 |
| Jan-Mar | 2.9 | 12.3 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 10.6 | 13.5 |
| 12 M Mar | 2.1 | 9.2 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 9.9 | 12.4 |
| Jan-Feb | 3.4 | 14.2 | 10.8 | 3.0 | 13.5 | 12.4 |
| 2012 | ||||||
| Jan-Dec | 4.7 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 9.3 | 6.3 |
| 12 M Dec | 7.6 | 13.5 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 16.7 | 5.3 |
| Jan-Nov | 4.4 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 8.4 | 6.5 |
| 12 M Nov | 7.9 | 16.5 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 15.2 | 3.9 |
| Jan-Oct | 3.9 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 7.7 | 6.9 |
| 12 M Oct | 6.4 | 11.7 | 11.5 | 6.7 | 14.0 | 3.8 |
| Jan-Sep | 3.6 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 7.1 | 7.3 |
| 12 M Sep | 1.5 | 4.9 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 6.3 |
| Jan-Aug | 3.8 | -0.5 | 8.7 | 2.5 | 13.8 | 10.4 |
| 12 M Aug | 4.8 | 2.6 | 5.9 | -0.4 | 13.8 | 9.7 |
| Jan-Jul | 3.8 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 6.7 | 7.4 |
| 12M Jul | 2.1 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 1.1 | 4.1 | 12.3 |
| Jan-Jun | 3.7 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 |
| 12 M Jun | 0.0 | 6.7 | 6.5 | -0.6 | 5.8 | 13.8 |
| Jan-May | 4.7 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 5.1 | 6.2 |
| 12 M May | 2.7 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 6.6 | 18.5 |
| Jan-Apr | 5.0 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 3.1 |
| 12 M Apr | 0.7 | 7.9 | 4.9 | -0.3 | 2.3 | 10.7 |
| Jan-Mar | 7.1 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 5.8 | 0.0 |
| 12 M Mar | 7.2 | 10.2 | 7.9 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 5.1 |
| Jan-Feb | 7.1 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 8.4 | -1.8 |
| 2011 | ||||||
| Jan-Dec | 12.0 | 8.4 | 16.1 | 4.9 | 10.6 | 3.0 |
| 12 M Dec | 9.7 | 3.7 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 13.2 | -6.5 |
| Jan-Nov | 12.0 | 13.1 | 17.2 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 3.9 |
| 12 M Nov | 8.5 | 7.8 | 11.2 | 3.2 | 8.2 | -1.3 |
| Jan-Oct | 12.3 | 13.7 | 18.0 | 5.4 | 10.4 | 5.2 |
| 12 M | 9.3 | 13.4 | 16.5 | -0.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 |
| Jan-Sep | 12.7 | 13.9 | 18.1 | 6.0 | 11.2 | 5.5 |
| 12 M Sep | 11.5 | 18.8 | 15.7 | 1.5 | 13.9 | 2.5 |
| Jan-Aug | 13.0 | 13.1 | 18.4 | 6.6 | 4.7 | |
| 12 M Aug | 10.0 | 12.9 | 12.8 | 4.5 | 15.6 | 9.5 |
| Jan-Jul | 13.3 | 13.0 | 19.2 | 6.9 | 9.9 | 4.0 |
| 12 M | 13.2 | 14.9 | 16.8 | 5.9 | 9.8 | -1.3 |
| 12 M | 16.2 | 14.8 | 19.9 | -0.7 | 9.8 | 3.6 |
| 12 M | 12.1 | 10.6 | 19.2 | 6.0 | 14.2 | -1.9 |
| 12 M Apr | 11.7 | 8.3 | 22.4 | 6.8 | 6.1 | -1.6 |
| 12 M Mar | 14.8 | 13.7 | 29.8 | 8.0 | 11.6 | 9.9 |
| 12 M Feb | 11.7 | 14.5 | 9.1 | 10.9 | 14.4 | 10.3 |
| 12 M Jan | 5.1 | 3.5 | 16.4 | 12.2 | 1.4 | 23.9 |
| 12 M Dec 2010 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 17.3 | 10.3 | -1.9 | 27.6 |
M: month
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Monthly growth rates of industrial production in China are provided in Table VC-3. Monthly rates have fluctuated around 1 percent. Jan and Feb 2012 are somewhat weaker but there was improvement to 1.25 percent in Mar 2012. The rate of 0.33 percent in Apr 2012 is the lowest in the monthly series from Feb 2011 to Dec 2014. Monthly sales growth remained below 1 percent in all months from Jan 2012 to Dec 2013 with the exception of Mar 2012. Value added of industry increased 0.40 percent in Feb 2015 and 0.25 percent in Mar 2015.
Table VC-3, China, Industrial Production Operation, Month ∆%
| 2011 | Month ∆% |
| Feb | 0.93 |
| Mar | 0.99 |
| Apr | 1.32 |
| May | 0.79 |
| Jun | 1.30 |
| Jul | 0.82 |
| Aug | 0.85 |
| Sep | 0.95 |
| Oct | 0.71 |
| Nov | 0.68 |
| Dec | 0.94 |
| Jan 2012 | 0.50 |
| Feb | 0.61 |
| Mar | 1.25 |
| Apr | 0.33 |
| May | 0.89 |
| Jun | 0.83 |
| Jul | 0.59 |
| Aug | 0.61 |
| Sep | 0.89 |
| Oct | 0.76 |
| Nov | 0.86 |
| Dec | 0.90 |
| Jan 2013 | 0.61 |
| Feb | 0.78 |
| Mar | 0.72 |
| Apr | 0.80 |
| May | 0.74 |
| Jun | 0.62 |
| Jul | 0.90 |
| Aug | 1.09 |
| Sep | 0.54 |
| Oct | 0.81 |
| Nov | 0.73 |
| Dec | 0.51 |
| Jan 2014 | 0.55 |
| Feb | 0.58 |
| Mar | 0.92 |
| Apr | 0.60 |
| May | 0.61 |
| Jun | 0.65 |
| Jul | 0.59 |
| Aug | 0.16 |
| Sep | 0.81 |
| Oct | 0.43 |
| Nov | 0.42 |
| Dec | 0.65 |
| Jan 2015 | 0.42 |
| Feb | 0.40 |
| Mar | 0.25 |
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Table VC-4 provides cumulative growth of investment in fixed assets in China in Jan-Dec 2011, Jan-Dec 2012, Jan-Dec 2013, Jan-Dec 2014 and Jan-Mar 2015 relative to a year earlier. Total fixed investment had grown at a high rate fluctuating around 25 percent and fixed investment in real estate development has grown at rates in excess of 30 percent but rates have declined significantly to still quite high percentages. In Jan-Mar 2015, investment in fixed assets in China grew 13.5 percent relative to a year earlier and 8.5 percent in real estate development. There was slight deceleration in the final two months of 2011 that continued into Jan-Dec 2013, Jan-Dec 2014 and Jan-Mar 2015.
Table VC-4, China, Investment in Fixed Assets ∆% Relative to a Year Earlier
| Total | State | Real Estate Development | |
| Jan-Mar 2015 | 13.5 | 14.4 | 8.5 |
| Jan-Feb | 13.9 | 13.7 | 10.4 |
| Jan-Dec 2014 | 15.7 | 13.0 | 10.5 |
| Jan-Nov | 15.8 | 13.7 | 11.9 |
| Jan-Oct | 15.9 | 14.0 | 12.4 |
| Jan-Sep | 16.1 | 14.1 | 12.5 |
| Jan-Aug | 16.5 | 14.2 | 13.2 |
| Jan-Jul | 17.0 | 14.7 | 13.7 |
| Jan-Jun | 17.3 | 14.8 | 14.1 |
| Jan-May | 17.2 | 15.1 | 14.7 |
| Jan-Apr | 17.3 | 14.4 | 16.4 |
| Jan-Mar | 17.6 | 14.5 | 16.8 |
| Jan-Feb | 17.9 | NA | 19.3 |
| Jan-Dec 2013 | 19.6 | 16.3 | 19.8 |
| Jan-Nov | 19.9 | 16.8 | 19.5 |
| Jan-Oct | 20.1 | 17.1 | 19.2 |
| Jan-Sep | 20.2 | 17.6 | 19.7 |
| Jan-Aug | 20.3 | NA | 19.3 |
| Jan-Jul | 20.1 | 17.5 | 20.5 |
| Jan-Jun | 20.1 | 17.5 | 20.3 |
| Jan-May | 20.4 | 17.7 | 20.6 |
| Jan-Apr | 20.6 | 18.1 | 21.1 |
| Jan-Mar | 20.9 | 18.7 | 20.2 |
| Jan-Feb | 21.2 | 16.9 | 22.8 |
| Jan-Dec 2012 | 20.6 | 14.7 | 16.2 |
| Jan-Nov | 20.7 | 14.5 | 16.7 |
| Jan-Oct | 20.7 | 14.2 | 15.4 |
| Jan-Sep | 20.5 | 13.6 | 15.4 |
| Jan-Aug | 20.2 | 12.9 | 15.6 |
| Jan-Jul | 20.4 | 12.6 | 15.4 |
| Jan-Jun | 20.4 | 13.8 | 16.6 |
| Jan-May | 20.1 | 10.0 | 18.5 |
| Jan-Apr | 20.2 | 9.5 | 18.7 |
| Jan-Mar | 20.9 | 9.0 | 23.5 |
| Jan-Feb | 21.5 | 8.8 | 27.8 |
| Jan-Dec 2011 | 23.8 | 11.1 | 27.9 |
| Jan-Nov | 24.5 | 11.7 | 29.9 |
| Jan-Oct | 24.9 | 12.4 | 31.1 |
| Jan-Sep | 24.9 | 12.7 | 32.0 |
| Jan-Aug | 25.0 | 12.1 | 33.2 |
| Jan-Jul | 25.4 | 13.6 | 33.6 |
| Jan-Jun | 25.6 | 14.6 | 32.9 |
| Jan-May | 25.8 | 14.9 | 34.6 |
| Jan-Apr | 25.4 | 16.6 | 34.3 |
| Jan-Mar | 25.0 | 17.0 | 34.1 |
| Jan-Feb | 24.9 | 15.6 | 35.2 |
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Chart VC-2 provides percentage changes of cumulative fixed asset investment in China relative to a year earlier from 2013 to 2014. Growth fell from 19.6 percent in Jan-Dec 2013 to 13.5 percent in Jan-Mar 2015.
Chart VC-2, China, Investment in Fixed Assets, ∆% Cumulative over Year Earlier
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
China has used restriction of reserves of banks to moderate real estate investment. These policies have been reversed because of lower inflation and weakening economic growth. Chart VC-3 shows decline of fluctuating cumulative growth rates of investment in real estate development relative to a year earlier from 19.8 percent in Jan-Dec 2013 to 8.5 percent in Jan-Mar 2015.
Chart VC-3, China, Investment in Real Estate Development, ∆% Cumulative over Year Earlier
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english
Growth rates of China’s retail sales in 12 months and cumulative relative to a year earlier are in Table VC-5. There is decline of growth rates to cumulative 10.6 percent in Jan-Mar 2015 relative to a year earlier from 19.9 percent in Jan 2011 and 17.1 percent in Dec 2011.
Table VC-5, China, Retail Sales 12-Month ∆% and Cumulative ∆% Relative to Year Earlier
| 12-Month ∆% | Cumulative ∆%/ | |
| 2015 | ||
| Jan-Mar | 10.2 | 10.6 |
| Jan-Feb | 10.7 | 10.7 |
| 2014 | ||
| Jan-Dec | 11.9 | 12.0 |
| Jan-Nov | 11.7 | 12.0 |
| Jan-Oct | 11.5 | 12.0 |
| Jan-Sep | 11.6 | 12.0 |
| Jan-Aug | 11.9 | 12.1 |
| Jan-Jul | 12.2 | 12.1 |
| Jan-Jun | 12.4 | 12.1 |
| Jan-May | 12.5 | 12.1 |
| Jan-Apr | 11.9 | 12.0 |
| Jan-Mar | 12.2 | 12.0 |
| Jan-Feb | 11.8 | NA |
| 2013 | ||
| Dec | 13.6 | 13.1 |
| Nov | 13.7 | 13.0 |
| Oct | 13.3 | 13.0 |
| Sep | 13.3 | 12.9 |
| Aug | 13.4 | 12.8 |
| Jul | 13.2 | 12.8 |
| Jun | 13.3 | 12.7 |
| May | 12.9 | 12.6 |
| Apr | 12.8 | 12.5 |
| Mar | 12.6 | 12.4 |
| Feb | 12.3 | 12.3 |
| 2012 | ||
| Dec | 15.2 | 14.3 |
| Nov | 14.9 | 14.2 |
| Oct | 14.5 | 14.1 |
| Sep | 14.2 | 14.1 |
| Aug | 13.2 | 14.1 |
| Jul | 13.1 | 14.2 |
| Jun | 13.7 | 14.4 |
| May | 13.8 | 14.5 |
| Apr | 14.1 | 14.7 |
| Mar | 15.2 | 14.8 |
| Feb | 14.7 | 14.7 |
| 2011 | ||
| Dec | 18.1 | 17.1 |
| Nov | 17.3 | 17.0 |
| Oct | 17.2 | 17.0 |
| Sep | 17.7 | 17.0 |
| Aug | 17.0 | 16.9 |
| Jul | 17.2 | 16.8 |
| Jun | 17.7 | 16.8 |
| May | 16.9 | 16.6 |
| Apr | 17.1 | 16.5 |
| Mar | 17.4 | 17.4 |
| Feb | 11.6 | 15.8 |
| Jan | 19.9 | 19.9 |
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Chart VC-4 of the National Bureau of Statistics of China provides 12-month rates of growth of retail sales from 2013 to 2015. There is again a drop into 2013 with the lowest percentages in Chart VC-4 followed by moderate increases. The growth rate of retail sales fell to 10.2 percent in Mar 2015 relative to a year earlier.
Chart VC-4, China, Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods 12-Month ∆%
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Table VC-6 provides monthly percentage changes of retail sales in China. Although the rate of 0.19 percent in Jan 2012 is the lowest in Table VC-6, the rate of 1.32 percent in Sep 2012 is relatively high and 1.23 percent in Dec 2012 is closer to rates in 2011. Sales are lower in Jan-Feb 2013 because of the Lunar New Year celebrations, rebounding in Mar-Dec 2013. There is weakness in Jan-Feb 2014 also partly under influence of the celebration of the Lunar New Year followed with 1.10 percent in Mar 2014. Retail sales increased 0.71 percent in Mar 2015.
Table VC-6, China, Retail Sales, Month ∆%
| 2011 | Month ∆% |
| Feb | 1.35 |
| Mar | 1.26 |
| Apr | 1.30 |
| May | 1.39 |
| Jun | 1.49 |
| Jul | 1.57 |
| Aug | 1.50 |
| Sep | 1.33 |
| Oct | 1.36 |
| Nov | 1.26 |
| Dec | 1.41 |
| 2012 | |
| Jan | 0.19 |
| Feb | 0.99 |
| Mar | 1.21 |
| Apr | 0.93 |
| May | 1.11 |
| Jun | 1.12 |
| Jul | 1.03 |
| Aug | 1.11 |
| Sep | 1.32 |
| Oct | 1.18 |
| Nov | 1.21 |
| Dec | 1.23 |
| Jan 2013 | 0.14 |
| Feb | 0.87 |
| Mar | 1.50 |
| Apr | 0.99 |
| May | 0.95 |
| Jun | 1.09 |
| Jul | 1.08 |
| Aug | 0.92 |
| Sep | 1.02 |
| Oct | 0.98 |
| Nov | 1.00 |
| Dec | 0.94 |
| 2014 | |
| Jan | 0.85 |
| Feb | 0.91 |
| Mar | 1.10 |
| Apr | 0.81 |
| May | 1.01 |
| Jun | 0.88 |
| Jul | 0.84 |
| Aug | 0.83 |
| Sep | 0.79 |
| Oct | 0.91 |
| Nov | 0.85 |
| Dec | 0.93 |
| 2015 | |
| Jan | 0.58 |
| Feb | 0.97 |
| Mar | 0.71 |
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Table VC-1 provides China’s exports, imports, trade balance and 12-month percentage changes from Dec 2010 to Mar 2015. The trade surplus of China was $3.08 billion in Mar 2015 with exports decreasing 15.0 percent relative to a year earlier and imports decreasing 12.7 percent. The trade surplus of China was $60.62 billion in Feb 2015 with exports increasing 48.3 percent relative to a year earlier and imports decreasing 20.5 percent. China’s trade surplus was $60.0 billion in Jan 2015 with exports decreasing 3.3 percent in 12 months and imports declining 19.9 percent. The trade surplus of China was $49.61 billion in Dec 2014 with exports growing 9.7 percent in 12 months and imports falling 2.4 percent. The trade surplus of China was $54.5 billion in Nov 2014 with exports growing 4.7 percent in 12 months and imports falling 6.7 percent. The trade surplus of China in Oct 2014 was $45.4 billion with exports increasing 11.6 percent in 12 months and imports 4.6 percent. The trade surplus of China in Sep 2014 was $31.0 billion with exports growing 15.3 percent relative to a year earlier and imports increasing 7.0 percent. China’s trade surplus rose to $49.8 billion in Aug 2014 with 12-month growth of exports of 9.4 percent and decline of 2.4 percent of imports in 12 months. The trade surplus of China jumped to $47.3 billion in Jul 2014 with growth of exports by 14.5 percent and decrease of imports by 1.6 percent. China’s trade surplus decreased to $31.6 billion in Jun 2014 with growth of exports of 7.2 percent and of 5.5 percent of imports. The trade surplus of China increased to $35.92 billion in May 2014 with growth of exports of 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier and decline of imports by 1.6 percent. The trade surplus of China increased to $18.45 billion in Apr 2014 with growth of exports of 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier and of imports of 0.8 percent. China had a trade surplus of $7.71 billion in Mar 2014 with exports declining 6.6 percent in 12 months and imports decreasing 11.3 percent. China had a rare trade deficit of $22.99 billion in Feb 2014 with exports decreasing 18.1 percent in 12 months while imports increased 10.1 percent. Exports increased 10.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2014 and imports 10.0 percent for trade surplus of $31.87 billion. Exports increased 4.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013 while imports increased 8.3 percent for trade surplus of $25.64 billion. Exports surged 12.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2013 while imports increased 5.3 percent for trade surplus of $33.8 billion. Exports rebounded with growth of 5.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2013 while imports increased 7.6 percent for trade surplus of $31.11 billion. Exports fell 0.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2013 while imports increased 7.4 for reduction of the trade surplus to $15.2 billion. Markets reacted positively to China’s trade data in Aug 2013 with exports growing 7.2 percent relative to a year earlier and imports 7.0 percent for increasing trade surplus of $28.52. Exports increased 5.1 in Jul 2013 and imports 10.9 percent for trade surplus of $17.82 billion. Exports fell 3.1 percent in Jun 2013 and imports declined 0.7 percent. The trade surplus reached $27.12 billion. Exports increased 1.0 percent in May 2013 relative to a year earlier while imports fell 0.3 percent with trade surplus of $20.43 billion. Exports increased 14.7 percent in Apr 2013 relative to a year earlier and imports 16.8 percent for trade surplus of $18.16 billion. Exports increased 10.0 percent in Mar 2013 relative to a year earlier and imports increased 14.1 percent for trade deficit of $0.88 billion. Exports increased 21.8 percent in Feb 2013 relative to a year earlier and imports fell 15.2 percent for trade surplus of $15.25 billion. China’s trade growth was stronger in Jan 2013 with growth of exports of 25.0 percent in 12 months and of imports of 28.8 percent for trade surplus of $29.15 billion. China’s trade growth strengthened in Dec 2012 with growth in 12 months of exports of 14.1 percent and of imports of 6.0 percent. China’s trade growth weakened again in Nov 2012 with growth of exports of 2.9 percent and no change in imports. China’s trade growth rebounded with growth of exports in 12 months of 11.6 percent in Oct 2012 and 9.9 percent in Sep 2012 after 2.7 percent in Aug 2012 and 1.0 percent in Jul 2012 while imports grew 2.4 percent in both Sep and Oct 2012, stagnating in Nov 2012. As a result, the monthly trade surplus increased from $25.2 billion in Jul 2012 to $31.9 billion in Oct 2012, declining to $19.6 billion in Nov 2012 but increasing to $31.62 billion in Dec 2012. China’s trade growth rebounded in Oct 2012 with growth of exports of 11.6 percent in 12 months and 2.4 percent for imports and trade surplus of $31.9 billion. The number that caught attention in financial markets was growth of 1.0 percent in exports in the 12 months ending in Jul 2012. Imports were also weak, growing 4.7 percent in 12 months ending in Jul 2012. Exports increased 11.3 percent in Jun 2012 relative to a year earlier while imports grew 6.3 percent. The rate of growth of exports fell to 4.9 percent in Apr 2012 relative to a year earlier and imports increased 0.3 percent but export growth was 15.3 percent in May and imports increased 12.7 percent. China reversed the large trade deficit of USD 31.48 billion in Feb 2012 with a surplus of $5.35 billion in Mar 2012, $18.42 billion in Apr 2012, $18.7 billion in May 2012, $31.7 billion in Jun 2012, $25.2 billion in Jul 2012, $26.7 billion in Aug 2012, $27.7 billion in Sep 2012, $31.9 billion in Oct 2012 and $19.6 billion in Nov 2012. Exports fell 0.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2012 while imports fell 15.3 percent for a still sizeable trade surplus of $27.3 billion. In Feb 2012, exports increased 18.4 percent while imports jumped 39.6 percent for a sizeable deficit of $31.48 billion. There are distortions from the Lunar New Year holidays.
Table VC-7, China, Exports, Imports and Trade Balance USD Billion and ∆%
| Exports | ∆% Relative | Imports USD | ∆% Relative | Balance | |
| Mar 2015 | 145.0 | -15.0 | 141.5 | -12.7 | 3.08 |
| Feb | 169.19 | 48.3 | 108.57 | -20.5 | 60.62 |
| Jan | 200.29 | -3.3 | 140.38 | -19.9 | 60.03 |
| Dec 2014 | 227.51 | 9.7 | 177.9 | -2.4 | 49.61 |
| Nov | 211.66 | 4.7 | 157.19 | -6.7 | 54.47 |
| Oct | 206.87 | 11.6 | 161.46 | 4.6 | 45.41 |
| Sep | 213.69 | 15.3 | 182.74 | 7.0 | 30.94 |
| Aug | 208.46 | 9.4 | 158.63 | -2.4 | 49.84 |
| Jul | 212.9 | 14.5 | 165.6 | -1.6 | 47.30 |
| Jun | 186.8 | 7.2 | 155.2 | 5.5 | 31.65 |
| May | 195.47 | 7.0 | 159.55 | -1.6 | 35.92 |
| Apr | 188.54 | 0.9 | 170.09 | 0.8 | 18.45 |
| Mar | 170.11 | -6.6 | 162.40 | -11.3 | 7.71 |
| Feb | 114.09 | -18.1 | 137.08 | 10.1 | -22.99 |
| Jan | 207.13 | 10.6 | 175.26 | 10.0 | 31.87 |
| Dec 2013 | 207.74 | 4.3 | 182.10 | 8.3 | 25.64 |
| Nov | 202.20 | 12.7 | 168.40 | 5.3 | 33.8 |
| Oct | 185.41 | 5.6 | 154.30 | 7.6 | 31.11 |
| Sep | 185.64 | -0.3 | 170.44 | 7.4 | 15.21 |
| Aug | 190.61 | 7.2 | 162.09 | 7.0 | 28.52 |
| Jul | 185.99 | 5.1 | 168.17 | 10.9 | 17.82 |
| Jun | 174.32 | -3.1 | 147.19 | -0.7 | 27.12 |
| May | 182.77 | 1.0 | 162.34 | -0.3 | 20.43 |
| Apr | 187.06 | 14.7 | 168.90 | 16.8 | 18.16 |
| Mar | 182.19 | 10.0 | 183.07 | 14.1 | -0.88 |
| Feb | 139.37 | 21.8 | 124.12 | -15.2 | 15.25 |
| Jan | 187.37 | 25.0 | 158.22 | 28.8 | 29.15 |
| Dec 2012 | 199.23 | 14.1 | 167.61 | 6.0 | 31.62 |
| Nov | 179.38 | 2.9 | 159.75 | 0.0 | 19.63 |
| Oct | 175.57 | 11.6 | 143.58 | 2.4 | 31.99 |
| Sep | 186.35 | 9.9 | 158.68 | 2.4 | 27.67 |
| Aug | 177.97 | 2.7 | 151.31 | -2.6 | 26.66 |
| Jul | 176.94 | 1.0 | 151.79 | 4.7 | 25.15 |
| Jun | 180.20 | 11.3 | 148.48 | 6.3 | 31.72 |
| May | 181.14 | 15.3 | 162.44 | 12.7 | 18.70 |
| Apr | 163.25 | 4.9 | 144.83 | 0.3 | 18.42 |
| Mar | 165.66 | 8.9 | 160.31 | 5.3 | 5.35 |
| Feb | 114.47 | 18.4 | 145.95 | 39.6 | -31.48 |
| Jan | 149.94 | -0.5 | 122.66 | -15.3 | 27.28 |
| Dec 2011 | 174.72 | 13.4 | 158.20 | 11.8 | 16.52 |
| Nov | 174.46 | 13.8 | 159.94 | 22.1 | 14.53 |
| Oct | 157.49 | 15.9 | 140.46 | 28.7 | 17.03 |
| Sep | 169.67 | 17.1 | 155.16 | 20.9 | 14.51 |
| Aug | 173.32 | 24.5 | 155.56 | 30.2 | 17.76 |
| Jul | 175.13 | 20.4 | 143.64 | 22.9 | 31.48 |
| Jun | 161.98 | 17.9 | 139.71 | 19.3 | 22.27 |
| May | 157.16 | 19.4 | 144.11 | 28.4 | 13.05 |
| Apr | 155.69 | 29.9 | 144.26 | 21.8 | 11.42 |
| Mar | 152.20 | 35.8 | 152.06 | 27.3 | 0.14 |
| Feb | 96.74 | 2.4 | 104.04 | 19.4 | -7.31 |
| Jan | 150.73 | 37.7 | 144.27 | 51.0 | 6.46 |
| Dec 2010 | 154.15 | 17.9 | 141.07 | 25.6 | 13.08 |
Source: Ministry of Commerce, People’s Republic of China
http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/article/statistic/BriefStatistics/
Table VC-8 provides cumulative exports, imports and the trade balance of China together with percentage rates of growth of exports and imports. Exports increased 4.7 percent in cumulative Jan-Mar 2015 relative to a year earlier while imports decreased 17.7 percent for cumulative surplus of $124.03 billion. Exports increased 15.0 percent in cumulative Jan-Feb 2015 relative to a year earlier and imports decreased 20.3 percent for cumulative surplus of $120.5 billion. Exports decreased 3.3 percent in Jan 2015 relative to a year earlier and imports fell 19.9 percent for surplus of $60.0 billion. Exports increased 6.1 percent in Jan-Dec 2014 relative to a year earlier and imports increased 0.4 percent for cumulative surplus of $382.46 billion. Exports increased 5.7 percent cumulatively in Jan-Nov 2014 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 0.8 percent for cumulative trade surplus of $332.5 billion. Exports increased 5.8 percent cumulatively in Jan-Oct 2014 relative to a year while earlier while imports increased 1.6 percent for cumulative trade surplus of $277.1 billion. Exports increased 5.1 percent cumulatively in Jan-Sep 2014 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 1.3 percent for cumulative trade surplus of $231.6 billion. Exports grew 3.8 percent cumulatively in Jan-Aug 2014 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 1.6 percent for cumulative surplus of $200 billion. Exports increased 2.9 percent in the cumulative Jan-July 2014 relative to a year earlier and imports 1.1 percent for cumulative surplus of $150.6 billion. Exports increased 0.9 percent in Jan-Jun 2014 relative to a year earlier and imports increased 1.5 percent for cumulative surplus of $102.7 billion. Exports fell 0.4 percent in Jan-May 2014 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 0.8 percent for cumulative surplus of $71.11 billion. Exports fell 2.3 percent in Jan-Apr 2014 relative to the same period a year earlier and imports increased 1.5 percent for cumulative trade surplus of $35.19 billion.
Exports fell 3.4 percent in Jan-Mar 2014 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 1.6 percent for cumulative surplus of $16.74 billion. Exports fell 1.6 percent and imports increased 10.0 percent for cumulative surplus of $8.88 billion in Jan-Feb 2014. Exports increased 10.6 percent in Jan 2014 and imports 10.0 percent for cumulative surplus of $31.87 billion. Exports increased 7.9 percent in Jan-Dec 2013 relative to the same period a year earlier while imports increased 7.3 percent for cumulative surplus of $259.75 billion. Exports grew 8.3 percent in Jan-Nov 2013 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 7.1 percent for cumulative surplus of $234.15 billion. Exports grew 7.8 percent in Jan-Oct 2013 relative to a year earlier while imports grew 7.3 percent for cumulative trade surplus of $200.46 billion. Exports increased 8.0 percent in Jan-Sep 2013 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 7.3 percent for cumulative surplus of $169.36 billion. Exports increased 9.2 percent in in Jan-Aug 2013 relative to a year earlier and imports 7.3 percent for trade surplus of $154.21 billion. Exports grew 9.5 percent in Jul 2013 relative to a year earlier and imports 7.3 percent with cumulative surplus of $125.71 billion. Exports increased 10.4 percent cumulatively in Jun 2013 and imports 6.7 for cumulative surplus of $107.95 billion. Exports increased 13.5 percent in Jan-May 2013 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 8.2 percent for cumulative surplus of $80.87 billion. Exports increased 17.4 percent in Jan-Apr 2012 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 10.6 percent for cumulative surplus of $60.98 billion. Exports increased 18.4 percent in Jan-Mar 2013 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 8.4 percent for cumulative surplus of $43.07 billion. Cumulative exports in Jan-Feb 2013 grew 23.6 percent relative to a year earlier and imports 5.0 percent for trade surplus of $44.15 billion. There is strong beginning of 2013 with trade surplus of $29.15 in Jan 2013 and growth of exports of 25.0 percent and imports of 28.8 percent. The trade balance of $231.1 billion in 2012 is stronger than the trade balance of $155.14 billion in 2011. The trade balance in 2011 of $155.14 billion is lower than those from 2008 to 2010. China’s trade balance reached $231.1 billion in Jan-Dec 2012 with cumulative growth of exports of 7.9 percent and 4.3 percent of imports, which is much lower than 20.3 percent for exports and 24.9 percent for imports in 2011 and 31.3 percent for exports and 38.7 percent for imports in 2010. There is a rare cumulative deficit of $4.2 billion in Feb 2012 reversed to a small surplus in Mar 2012 and a higher surplus of $19.3 billion in Apr 2012, increasing to $37.9 billion in May, $68.9 billion in Jun 2012, $94.1 billion in Jul 2012, $120.6 billion in Aug 2012, $148.3 billion in Sep 2012, $180.24 billion in Oct 2012, $199.54 billion in Nov 2012 and $231.1 billion in Dec 2012. More observations are required to detect trends of Chinese trade.
Table VC-8, China, Year to Date Exports, Imports and Trade Balance USD Billion and ∆%
| Exports | ∆% Relative | Imports USD | ∆% Relative | Balance | |
| Mar 2015 | 514.48 | 4.7 | 390.45 | -17.7 | 124.03 |
| Feb | 369.48 | 15.0 | 248.95 | -20.3 | 120.53 |
| Jan | 200.29 | -3.3 | 140.38 | -19.9 | 60.0 |
| Dec 2014 | 2342.75 | 6.1 | 1960.29 | 0.4 | 382.46 |
| Nov | 2115.36 | 5.7 | 1782.89 | 0.8 | 332.48 |
| Oct | 1903.84 | 5.8 | 1626.73 | 1.6 | 277.1 |
| Sep | 1697.09 | 5.1 | 1465.51 | 1.3 | 231.58 |
| Aug | 1483.5 | 3.8 | 1282.9 | 0.6 | 200.5 |
| Jul | 1275.0 | 2.9 | 1125.0 | 1.1 | 150.6 |
| Jun | 1062.1 | 0.9 | 959.4 | 1.5 | 102.7 |
| May | 875.32 | -0.4 | 804.21 | 0.8 | 71.11 |
| Apr | 679.85 | -2.3 | 644.66 | 1.5 | 35.19 |
| Mar | 491.31 | -3.4 | 474.57 | 1.6 | 16.74 |
| Feb | 321.23 | -1.6 | 312.35 | 10.0 | 8.88 |
| Jan | 207.13 | 10.6 | 175.26 | 10.0 | 31.87 |
| Dec 2013 | 2210.04 | 7.9 | 1950.29 | 7.3 | 259.75 |
| Nov | 2002.32 | 8.3 | 1768.17 | 7.1 | 234.15 |
| Oct | 1800.21 | 7.8 | 1599.75 | 7.3 | 200.46 |
| Sep | 1614.86 | 8.0 | 1445.50 | 7.3 | 169.36 |
| Aug | 1429.26 | 9.2 | 1275.05 | 7.3 | 154.21 |
| Jul | 1238.73 | 9.5 | 1113.02 | 7.3 | 125.71 |
| Jun | 1052.82 | 10.4 | 944.87 | 6.7 | 107.95 |
| May | 878.56 | 13.5 | 797.69 | 8.2 | 80.87 |
| Apr | 695.87 | 17.4 | 634.88 | 10.6 | 60.98 |
| Mar | 508.87 | 18.4 | 465.80 | 8.4 | 43.07 |
| Feb | 326.73 | 23.6 | 282.58 | 5.0 | 44.15 |
| Jan | 187.37 | 25.0 | 158.22 | 28.8 | 29.15 |
| Dec 2012 | 2048.93 | 7.9 | 1817.83 | 4.3 | 231.11 |
| Nov | 1849.91 | 7.3 | 1650.37 | 4.1 | 199.54 |
| Oct | 1670.90 | 7.8 | 1490.67 | 4.6 | 180.24 |
| Sep | 1495.39 | 7.4 | 1347.08 | 4.8 | 148.31 |
| Aug | 1309.11 | 7.1 | 1188.51 | 5.1 | 120.61 |
| Jul | 1131.24 | 7.8 | 1037.14 | 6.4 | 94.10 |
| Jun | 954.38 | 9.2 | 885.46 | 6.7 | 68.91 |
| May | 774.40 | 8.7 | 736.49 | 6.7 | 37.92 |
| Apr | 593.24 | 6.9 | 573.94 | 5.1 | 19.3 |
| Mar | 430.02 | 7.6 | 429.36 | 6.6 | 0.66 |
| Feb | 264.40 | 6.9 | 268.64 | 7.7 | -4.24 |
| Jan | 149.94 | -0.5 | 122.66 | -15.3 | 27.28 |
| Dec 2011 | 1,898.60 | 20.3 | 1,743.46 | 24.9 | 155.14 |
| Nov | 1,724.01 | 21.1 | 1585.61 | 26.4 | 138.40 |
| Oct | 1,549.71 | 22.0 | 1,425.68 | 26.9 | 124.03 |
| Sep | 1,392.27 | 22.7 | 1,285.17 | 26.7 | 107.10 |
| Aug | 1,222.63 | 23.6 | 1,129.90 | 27.5 | 92.73 |
| Jul | 1,049.38 | 23.4 | 973.17 | 26.9 | 76.21 |
| Jun | 874.3 | 24.0 | 829.37 | 27.6 | 44.93 |
| May | 712.37 | 25.5 | 689.41 | 29.4 | 22.96 |
| Apr | 555.30 | 27.4 | 545.02 | 29.6 | 10.28 |
| Mar | 399.64 | 26.5 | 400.66 | 32.6 | -1.02 |
| Feb | 247.47 | 21.3 | 248.36 | 36.0 | -0.89 |
| Jan | 150.7 | 37.7 | 144.27 | 51.0 | 6.46 |
| Dec 2010 | 1577.93 | 31.3 | 1394.83 | 38.7 | 183.10 |
Source: Ministry of Commerce, People’s Republic of China
http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/article/statistic/BriefStatistics/
VD Euro Area. Table VD-EUR provides yearly growth rates of the combined GDP of the members of the European Monetary Union (EMU) or euro area since 1999. Growth was very strong at 3.3 percent in 2006 and 3.1 percent in 2007. The global recession had strong impact with growth of only 0.5 percent in 2008 and decline of 4.5 percent in 2009. Recovery was at lower growth rates of 2.0 percent in 2010 and 1.6 percent in 2011. EUROSTAT estimates growth of GDP of the euro area of minus 0.8 percent in 2012 and minus 0.4 percent in 2013 but 0.9 percent in 2014.
Table VD-EUR, Euro Area, Yearly Percentage Change of Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, Unemployment and GDP ∆%
| Year | HICP ∆% | Unemployment | GDP ∆% |
| 1999 | 1.2 | 9.7 | 2.9 |
| 2000 | 2.2 | 8.8 | 3.8 |
| 2001 | 2.4 | 8.3 | 2.1 |
| 2002 | 2.3 | 8.6 | 0.9 |
| 2003 | 2.1 | 9.1 | 0.7 |
| 2004 | 2.2 | 9.3 | 2.2 |
| 2005 | 2.2 | 9.1 | 1.7 |
| 2006 | 2.2 | 8.4 | 3.3 |
| 2007 | 2.2 | 7.5 | 3.1 |
| 2008 | 3.3 | 7.6 | 0.5 |
| 2009 | 0.3 | 9.6 | -4.5 |
| 2010 | 1.6 | 10.2 | 2.0 |
| 2011 | 2.7 | 10.2 | 1.6 |
| 2012 | 2.5 | 11.4 | -0.8 |
| 2013 | 1.3 | 12.0 | -0.4 |
| 2014 | 0.4 | 11.6 | 0.9 |
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database
The GDP of the euro area in 2013 in current US dollars in the dataset of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is $12,753.7 billion or 17.1 percent of world GDP of $74,699.3 billion (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/weodata/weoselgr.aspx). The sum of the GDP of France $2807.3 billion with the GDP of Germany of $3635.9 billion, Italy of $2071.9 billion and Spain $1358.7 billion is $9873.8 billion or 77.4 percent of total euro area GDP and 13.2 percent of World GDP. The four largest economies account for slightly more than three quarters of economic activity of the euro area. Table VD-EUR1 is constructed with the dataset of EUROSTAT, providing growth rates of the euro area as a whole and of the largest four economies of Germany, France, Italy and Spain annually from 1996 to 2014. The impact of the global recession on the overall euro area economy and on the four largest economies was quite strong. There was sharp contraction in 2009 and growth rates have not rebounded to earlier growth with exception of Germany in 2010 and 2011.
Table VD-EUR1, Euro Area, Real GDP Growth Rate, ∆%
| Euro Area | Germany | France | Italy | Spain | |
| 2014 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 1.4 |
| 2013 | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | -1.7 | -1.2 |
| 2012 | -0.8 | 0.4 | 0.3 | -2.8 | -2.1 |
| 2011 | 1.6 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | -0.6 |
| 2010 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.0 |
| 2009 | -4.5 | -5.6 | -2.9 | -5.5 | -3.6 |
| 2008 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | -1.0 | 1.1 |
| 2007 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 3.8 |
| 2006 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 4.2 |
| 2005 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 3.7 |
| 2004 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 3.2 |
| 2003 | 0.7 | -0.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 3.2 |
| 2002 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 2.9 |
| 2001 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 4.0 |
| 2000 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 5.3 |
| 1999 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 4.5 |
| 1998 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 4.3 |
| 1997 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 3.7 |
| 1996 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 2.7 |
Source: EUROSTAT
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database
The Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index of the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI®, combining activity in manufacturing and services, increased from 53.3 in Feb to 54.1 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f969e097835f4ead892757c62f709814). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds that the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI index suggests GDP growth at around 0.3 percent in IQ2015 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f969e097835f4ead892757c62f709814). The Markit Eurozone PMI® Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing activity with close association with GDP increased from 53.3 in Feb to 54.0 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/3de234401ab34b9fa89ccae8af205624). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds slowing growth of GDP at around 0.3 percent in IQ2015 with improved prospects in coming months (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/3de234401ab34b9fa89ccae8af205624). The Markit Eurozone Services Business Activity Index increased from 53.7 in Feb to 54.2 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/3de234401ab34b9fa89ccae8af205624). The Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI® increased from 51.0 in Feb to 51.9 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/75a84292bf394732a98dc4a53cad080c). New export orders increased. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds improvement of industrial growth in the euro area (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/75a84292bf394732a98dc4a53cad080c
Table EUR, Euro Area Economic Indicators
| GDP | IVQ2014 ∆% 0.3; IVQ2014/IVQ2013 ∆% 0.9 Blog 3/15/15 |
| Unemployment | Feb 2015: 11.3 % unemployment rate; Feb 2015: 18.204 million unemployed Blog 4/5/15 |
| HICP | Mar month ∆%: 1.1 12 months Mar ∆%: -0.1 |
| Producer Prices | Euro Zone industrial producer prices Feb ∆%: 0.5 |
| Industrial Production | Feb month ∆%: 1.1; Feb 12 months ∆%: 1.6 |
| Retail Sales | Jan month ∆%: 1.1 |
| Confidence and Economic Sentiment Indicator | Sentiment 103.9 Mar 2015 Consumer minus 3.7 Mar 2015 Blog 4/5/15 |
| Trade | Jan-Feb 2015/Jan-Feb 2014 Exports ∆%: 1.8 Feb 2015 12-month Exports ∆% 4.1 Imports ∆% 0.4 |
Links to blog comments in Table EUR:
4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html
4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html
3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html
Table VD-1 provides monthly industrial production percentage changes for total production and major segments in the euro area. Total production increased 1.1 percent in Feb 2015 with increase of 1.0 percent in durable goods and increase of 1.1 percent in energy. Capital goods increased 1.0 percent. Nondurable goods decreased 1.6 percent and intermediate goods increased 0.3 percent. Industrial production increased in all months from Dec 2012 to Jun 2013 with exception of declines of 1.1 percent in May 2013 and 0.4 percent in Mar 2013. Industrial production increased 0.8 percent in Jul 2014, increasing 0.6 percent in Sep 2014, 0.1 percent in Oct 2014, 0.2 percent in Nov 2014 and 0.6 percent in Dec 2014, declining 0.3 percent in Jan 2015.
Table VD-1, Euro Zone, Industrial Production Month ∆%
| Total | INT | ENE | CG | DUR | NDUR | |
| Feb 2015 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Jan | -0.3 | -0.2 | 1.3 | -0.8 | -2.2 | -0.9 |
| Dec 2014 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 2.2 | -0.5 |
| Nov | 0.2 | 0.1 | -0.4 | -0.1 | 1.6 | 0.1 |
| Oct | 0.1 | 0.3 | -1.4 | -0.1 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Sep | 0.6 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 2.0 | -1.0 | -0.2 |
Notes: INT: Intermediate; ENE: Energy; CG: Capital Goods; DUR: Durable Consumer Goods; NDUR: Nondurable Consumer Goods
Source: EUROSTAT
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database
Table VD-2 provides monthly and 12-month percentage changes of industrial production and major industrial categories in the euro zone. Most 12-month percentage changes in Table VD-2 are positive in the 12 months ending in Feb 2015 with exception of decrease of 0.2 percent in intermediate goods. Industrial production increased 1.1 percent in the month of Feb 2015 and increased 1.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2015.
Table VD-2, Euro Zone, Industrial Production, Month and 12-Month ∆%
| 2015 | Feb Month ∆% | Feb 12-Month ∆% |
| Total | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Intermediate Goods | 0.3 | -0.2 |
| Energy | 1.1 | 6.6 |
| Capital Goods | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Durable Consumer Goods | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Nondurable Consumer Goods | 1.6 | 1.8 |
Source: EUROSTAT
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database
There has been significant decline in percentage changes of industrial production and major categories in 12-month rates into 2012 and 2013 with recovery in 2014-2015, as shown in Table VD-3. Negative percentage changes moderated from the high rates in Oct-Nov 2012 with return to growth. All 12-month percentage changes are negative for the various segments of euro area industrial production from May to Aug 2013 with exception of capital goods in Jun but there is improvement in Sep to Dec 2013 and Jan 2014 with positive 12-month percentage changes for total industry. There is significant improvement in 2014 with growth of 1.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb with deterioration to 0.3 percent in Mar 2014 and rebound of 1.9 percent in Apr 2014. The growth rate of industrial production in 12 months slowed to 0.7 percent in May 2014 and 0.2 percent in Jun 2014. Industrial production increased 1.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2014 and fell 0.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014. Industrial production increased 0.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2014 and 0.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014. Industrial production fell 0.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2014 and increased 0.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2014. Industrial production increased 0.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2015 and increased 1.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2015. Output of capital goods increased 2.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2014 but only 1.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014, increasing to 1.4 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2014. Output of capital goods grew 0.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2014 and increased 4.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2014. Output of capital goods fell 2.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014, increasing 1.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2014 and 1.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014. Output of capital goods fell 1.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2014 and increased 1.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2014. Output of capital goods decreased 0.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2015 and increased 1.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2015. Output of intermediate goods fell 0.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2014 and fell 0.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014. Output of intermediate goods fell 0.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2014 and increased 0.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2014. Output of capital goods decreased 0.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2015 and decreased 0.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2015.
Table VD-3, Euro Zone, Industrial Production 12-Month ∆%
| Total | INT | ENE | CG | DUR | NDUR | |
| Feb 2015 | 1.6 | -0.2 | 6.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 1.8 |
| Jan | 0.4 | -0.3 | 2.4 | -0.2 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Dec 2014 | 0.8 | 0.1 | -2.1 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Nov | -0.6 | -0.8 | -5.6 | -1.0 | 0.4 | 3.6 |
| Oct | 0.8 | -0.5 | -2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 3.5 |
| Sep | 0.3 | -0.5 | -3.2 | 1.4 | -3.6 | 1.9 |
Notes: INT: Intermediate; ENE: Energy; CG: Capital Goods; DUR: Durable Consumer Goods; NDUR: Nondurable Consumer Goods
Source: EUROSTAT
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database
Growth of euro zone trade continues to be relatively resilient as shown in Table VD-4 but with deceleration at the margin. Exports grew 1.8 percent and imports decreased 2.8 percent in Jan-Feb 2014 relative to a year earlier. The 12-month rate of growth of exports was 4.1 percent in Feb 2015 while imports increased 0.4 percent. At the margin, rates of growth of trade are declining in part because of moderation of commodity prices.
Table VD-4, Euro Zone, Exports, Imports and Trade Balance, Billions of Euros and Percent, NSA
| Exports | Imports | |
| Jan-Feb 2015 | 308.5 | 280.6 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | 303.1 | 288.6 |
| ∆% | 1.8 | -2.8 |
| Jan-Dec 2014 | 1943.5 | 1750.6 |
| Jan-Dec 2013 | 1900.9 | 1749.0 |
| ∆% | 2.2 | 0.1 |
| Feb 2015 | 160.7 | 140.5 |
| Feb 2014 | 154.4 | 140.0 |
| ∆% | 4.1 | 0.4 |
| Trade Balance | Jan-Feb 2015 | Jan-Dec 2014 |
| € Billions | 27.9 | 14.5 |
Source: EUROSTAT
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database
The structure of trade of the euro area in Jan-Feb 2015 is provided in Table VD-5. Manufactured exports increased 5.3 percent in Jan-Feb 2015 relative to Jan-Feb 2014 while imports increased 12.7 percent.
Table VD-5, European Union, Structure of Exports, Imports and Trade Balance, € Billions, NSA, ∆%
| Primary | Manufactured | Other | Total | |
| Exports | ||||
| Jan-Feb 2015 € B | 36.5 | 219.6 | 8.9 | 265.0 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 € B | 42.9 | 208.6 | 14.7 | 266.1 |
| ∆% | -14.9 | 5.3 | -39.5 | -0.4 |
| Imports | ||||
| Jan-Feb 20145€ B | 79.6 | 183.8 | 9.1 | 272.5 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 € B | 106.6 | 163.1 | 5.8 | 275.5 |
| ∆% | -25.3 | 12.7 | 56.9 | -1.1 |
| Trade Balance € B | ||||
| Jan-Feb 2015 | -43.1 | 35.8 | -0.2 | -7.5 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | -63.7 | 45.5 | 8.9 | -9.4 |
Note: there are minor rounding errors
Source: EUROSTAT
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database
VE Germany. Table VE-DE provides yearly growth rates of the German economy from 1971 to 2014, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked. Germany’s GDP fell 5.6 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.1 percent in 2008. Recovery has been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.1 percent in 2010, 3.6 percent in 2011 and 0.4 percent in 2012. Growth decelerated to 0.1 percent in 2013, increasing to 1.6 percent in 2014.
The Federal Statistical Agency of Germany analyzes the fall and recovery of the German economy (http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Content/Statistics/VolkswirtschaftlicheGesamtrechnungen/Inlandsprodukt/Aktuell,templateId=renderPrint.psml):
“The German economy again grew strongly in 2011. The price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.0% compared with the previous year. Accordingly, the catching-up process of the German economy continued during the second year after the economic crisis. In the course of 2011, the price-adjusted GDP again exceeded its pre-crisis level. The economic recovery occurred mainly in the first half of 2011. In 2009, Germany experienced the most serious post-war recession, when GDP suffered a historic decline of 5.1%. The year 2010 was characterised by a rapid economic recovery (+3.7%).”
Table VE-DE, Germany, GDP ∆% on Prior Year
| Price Adjusted Chain-Linked | Price- and Calendar-Adjusted Chain Linked | |
| Average ∆% 1991-2014 | 1.3 | |
| Average ∆% 1991-1999 | 1.5 | |
| Average ∆% 2000-2007 | 1.4 | |
| Average ∆% 2003-2007 | 2.2 | |
| Average ∆% 2007-2014 | 0.7 | |
| Average ∆% 2009-2014 | 1.9 | |
| 2014 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 2013 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| 2012 | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| 2011 | 3.6 | 3.7 |
| 2010 | 4.1 | 3.9 |
| 2009 | -5.6 | -5.6 |
| 2008 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 2007 | 3.3 | 3.4 |
| 2006 | 3.7 | 3.9 |
| 2005 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| 2004 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 2003 | -0.7 | -0.7 |
| 2002 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2001 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| 2000 | 3.0 | 3.2 |
| 1999 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| 1998 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| 1997 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| 1996 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 1995 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| 1994 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| 1993 | -1.0 | -1.0 |
| 1992 | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| 1991 | 5.1 | 5.2 |
| 1990 | 5.3 | 5.5 |
| 1989 | 3.9 | 4.0 |
| 1988 | 3.7 | 3.4 |
| 1987 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| 1986 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1985 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1984 | 2.8 | 2.9 |
| 1983 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| 1982 | -0.4 | -0.5 |
| 1981 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| 1980 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| 1979 | 4.2 | 4.3 |
| 1978 | 3.0 | 3.1 |
| 1977 | 3.3 | 3.5 |
| 1976 | 4.9 | 4.5 |
| 1975 | -0.9 | -0.9 |
| 1974 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| 1973 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| 1972 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| 1971 | 3.1 | 3.0 |
| 1970 | NA | NA |
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/02/PE14_048_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/08/PE13_278_811.html https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/11/PE13_381_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/01/PE14_016_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/05/PE14_167_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/09/PE14_306_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/11/PE14_401_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_048_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_61_811.html
The Flash Germany Composite Output Index of the Markit Flash Germany PMI®, combining manufacturing and services, increased from 53.8 in Feb to 55.3 in Mar. The index of manufacturing output reached 55.4 in Mar, increasing from 52.2 in Feb, while the index of services increased to 55.3 in Mar from 54.7 in Feb. The overall Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI® increased from 51.1 in Feb to 52.4 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/31e96b11367c46a5b06c787875c28812). New orders in manufacturing expanded. Oliver Kolodseike, Economist at Markit, finds improving GDP growth (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/31e96b11367c46a5b06c787875c28812). The Markit Germany Composite Output Index of the Markit Germany Services PMI®, combining manufacturing and services with close association with Germany’s GDP, increased from 53.8 in Feb to 55.4 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/126dd4b9c0244796bf59910d40f88ef8). Oliver Kolodseike, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds improvement in 2015 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/126dd4b9c0244796bf59910d40f88ef8). The Germany Services Business Activity Index increased from 54.7 in Feb to 55.4 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/126dd4b9c0244796bf59910d40f88ef8). The Markit/BME Germany Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®), showing close association with Germany’s manufacturing conditions, increased from 51.1 in Feb to 52.8 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d6d0b52b742b427f9b808a09fd84eb80). New export orders increased. Oliver Kolodseike, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds improvement of manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d6d0b52b742b427f9b808a09fd84eb80).Table DE provides the country data table for Germany.
Table DE, Germany, Economic Indicators
| GDP | IVQ2014 0.7 ∆%; IV/Q2014/IVQ2013 ∆% 1.6 2014/2013: 1.6% GDP ∆% 1970-2014 Blog 8/26/12 5/27/12 11/25/12 2/24/13 5/19/13 5/26/13 8/18/13 8/25/13 11/17/13 11/24/13 1/26/14 2/16/14 3/2/14 5/18/14 5/25/14 8/17/14 9/7/14 11/16/14 11/30/14 2/15/15 3/1/15 |
| Consumer Price Index | Mar month NSA ∆%: 0.5 |
| Producer Price Index | Feb month ∆%: 0.1 NSA, 0.0 CSA |
| Industrial Production | MFG Feb month CSA ∆%: 0.6 |
| Machine Orders | MFG Feb month ∆%: -0.9 |
| Retail Sales | Feb Month ∆% -0.5 12-Month ∆% 3.6 Blog 4/5/15 |
| Employment Report | Unemployment Rate SA Jan 4.8% |
| Trade Balance | Exports Feb 12-month NSA ∆%: 3.9 Blog 4/12/15 |
Links to blog comments in Table DE:
4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html
4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html
3/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html
3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html
2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html
11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html
11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html
9/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/competitive-monetary-policy-and.html
8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html
5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html
5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html
3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html
2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html
1/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/01/capital-flows-exchange-rates-and.html
11/24/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html
11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html
8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html
8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html
VF France. Table VF-FR provides growth rates of GDP of France with the estimates of Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE). The long-term rate of GDP growth of France from IVQ1949 to IVQ2014 is quite high at 3.2 percent. France’s growth rates were quite high in the four decades of the 1950s, 1960, 1970s and 1980s with an average growth rate of 4.0 percent compounding the average rates in the decades and discounting to one decade. The growth impulse diminished with 2.0 percent in the 1990s and 1.8 percent from 2000 to 2007. The average growth rate from 2000 to 2014, using fourth quarter data, is 1.0 percent because of the sharp impact of the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. Cobet and Wilson (2002) provide estimates of output per hour and unit labor costs in national currency and US dollars for the US, Japan and Germany from 1950 to 2000 (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 137-44). The average yearly rate of productivity change from 1950 to 2000 was 2.9 percent in the US, 6.3 percent for Japan and 4.7 percent for Germany while unit labor costs in USD increased at 2.6 percent in the US, 4.7 percent in Japan and 4.3 percent in Germany. From 1995 to 2000, output per hour increased at the average yearly rate of 4.6 percent in the US, 3.9 percent in Japan and 2.6 percent in Germany while unit labor costs in US fell at minus 0.7 percent in the US, 4.3 percent in Japan and 7.5 percent in Germany. There was increase in productivity growth in the G7 in Japan and France in the second half of the 1990s but significantly lower than the acceleration of 1.3 percentage points per year in the US. Lucas (2011May) compares growth of the G7 economies (US, UK, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Canada) and Spain, finding that catch-up growth with earlier rates for the US and UK stalled in the 1970s.
Table VF-FR, France, Average Growth Rates of GDP Fourth Quarter, 1949-2014
| Period | Average ∆% |
| 1949-2014 | 3.2 |
| 2007-2014 | 0.3 |
| 2000-2014 | 1.0 |
| 2000-2013 | 1.1 |
| 2000-2007 | 1.8 |
| 1990-1999 | 2.0 |
| 1980-1989 | 2.6 |
| 1970-1979 | 3.7 |
| 1960-1969 | 5.7 |
| 1950-1959 | 4.2 |
Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques
http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=28&date=20150326
The Markit Flash France Composite Output Index decreased from 52.2 in Feb to 51.7 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/aa2d103513934a7682046ad5582b152b). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds possible improvement in IQ2015 GDP (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/aa2d103513934a7682046ad5582b152b). The Markit France Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing with close association with French GDP, decreased from 52.2 in Feb to 51.5 in Mar, indicating expansion at slower pace (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/49268c6ccda04350a1a73584cd782a22). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the France Services PMI®, finds continuing improvement (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/49268c6ccda04350a1a73584cd782a22). The Markit France Services Activity index decreased from 53.4 in Feb to 52.4 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/49268c6ccda04350a1a73584cd782a22). The Markit France Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index® increased to 48.8 in Mar from 47.6 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c04a6a98761641fa94caae56d7a4b327). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the France Manufacturing PMI®, finds slower deterioration in manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c04a6a98761641fa94caae56d7a4b327). Table FR provides the country data table for France.
Table FR, France, Economic Indicators
| CPI | Mar month ∆% 0.7 |
| PPI | Feb month ∆%: 0.8 Blog 4/5/15 |
| GDP Growth | IVQ2014/IIIQ2014 ∆%: 0.1 |
| Industrial Production | Feb ∆%: |
| Consumer Spending | Manufactured Goods |
| Employment | Unemployment Rate: IVQ2014 10.0% |
| Trade Balance | Feb Exports ∆%: month 1.4, 12 months 3.0 Feb Imports ∆%: month 0.6, 12 months 1.5 Blog 4/12/15 |
| Confidence Indicators | Historical average 100 Mar Mfg Business Climate 99.0 Blog 3/29/15 |
Links to blog comments in Table FR:
4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html
4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html
3/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html
3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html
2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html
12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html
11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html
9/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html
8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html
6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html
5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html
4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html
2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html
12/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/collapse-of-united-states-dynamism-of.html
11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html
9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html
6/30/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/tapering-quantitative-easing-policy-and.html
5/19/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/word-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html
VG Italy. Table VG-IT provides percentage changes in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier of Italy’s expenditure components in chained volume measures. GDP has been declining at sharper rates from minus 1.0 percent in IVQ2011 to minus 2.7 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.6 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.0 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.4 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.8 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.1 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and decreased 0.3 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and fell 0.5 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. The aggregate demand components of consumption and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) have been declining at faster rates. The rates of decline of GDP, consumption and GFCF were somewhat milder in IIIQ2013 and IVQ2013 than in IQ2013 and the final three quarters of 2012. Consumption fell 0.4 percent in IQ2014 and GFCF fell 2.5 percent. In IIQ2014, consumption decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier and GFCF fell 3.3 percent. GDP fell 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier while consumption increased 0.2 percent and GFCF fell 4.2 percent. GDP fell 0.5 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier while consumption increased 0.3 percent and GFCF fell 3.0 percent.
Table VG-IT, Italy, GDP and Expenditure Components, Chained Volume Measures, Quarter ∆% on Same Quarter Year Earlier
| GDP | Imports | Consumption | GFCF | Exports | |
| 2014 | |||||
| IVQ | -0.5 | 2.0 | 0.3 | -3.0 | 3.8 |
| IIIQ | -0.5 | 1.3 | 0.2 | -4.2 | 1.7 |
| IIQ | -0.3 | 2.8 | -0.1 | -3.3 | 2.6 |
| IQ | -0.1 | 0.4 | -0.4 | -2.5 | 3.8 |
| 2013 | |||||
| IVQ | -0.8 | 0.8 | -1.2 | -4.1 | 1.2 |
| IIIQ | -1.4 | -1.5 | -2.1 | -4.2 | 0.0 |
| IIQ | -2.0 | -3.7 | -2.5 | -6.4 | 0.2 |
| IQ | -2.6 | -4.3 | -2.7 | -8.4 | 1.5 |
| 2012 | |||||
| IVQ | -2.7 | -7.5 | -3.3 | -9.6 | 1.7 |
| IIIQ | -3.1 | -8.2 | -3.5 | -10.2 | 3.0 |
| IIQ | -3.1 | -8.9 | -3.5 | -9.6 | 1.6 |
| IQ | -2.3 | -8.7 | -3.1 | -8.1 | 1.8 |
| 2011 | |||||
| IVQ | -1.0 | -7.1 | -2.0 | -4.5 | 2.5 |
| IIIQ | 0.4 | 0.3 | -0.8 | -2.3 | 4.6 |
| IIQ | 1.4 | 3.8 | 0.3 | -0.6 | 7.5 |
| IQ | 2.0 | 8.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 10.2 |
| 2010 | |||||
| IVQ | 2.3 | 14.6 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 13.0 |
| IIIQ | 1.8 | 12.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 12.4 |
| IIQ | 1.9 | 14.2 | 1.0 | -0.4 | 13.2 |
| IQ | 0.7 | 6.7 | 0.9 | -3.3 | 6.8 |
| 2009 | |||||
| IVQ | -3.5 | -6.3 | 0.2 | -8.2 | -9.3 |
| IIIQ | -5.0 | -12.2 | -0.8 | -12.6 | -16.4 |
| IIQ | -6.6 | -17.9 | -1.4 | -13.6 | -21.4 |
| IQ | -6.9 | -17.2 | -1.8 | -12.4 | -22.8 |
| 2008 | |||||
| IVQ | -3.0 | -8.2 | -0.9 | -8.3 | -10.3 |
| IIIQ | -1.9 | -5.0 | -0.8 | -4.5 | -3.9 |
| IIQ | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -1.5 | 0.4 |
| IQ | 0.5 | 1.7 | 0.1 | -1.0 | 2.9 |
GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation
Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica
http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/151830
The Markit/ADACI Business Activity Index increased from 50.0 in Feb to 51.6 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/a6109b353f314494a0b5c5ffab4f1bde). Phil Smith, Economist at Markit and author of the Italy Services PMI®, finds signs of expansion of private sector activity (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/a6109b353f314494a0b5c5ffab4f1bde). The Markit/ADACI Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®), increased from 51.9 in Feb to 53.3 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f6e9a5d5010446dc928834dcb0c58152). New export orders continued to increase. Phil Smith, Economist at Markit and author of the Italian Manufacturing PMI®, finds strengthening conditions in manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f6e9a5d5010446dc928834dcb0c58152). Table IT provides the country data table for Italy.
Table IT, Italy, Economic Indicators
| Consumer Price Index | Mar month ∆%: 0.1 |
| Producer Price Index | Feb month ∆%: -0.5 Blog 4/5/15 |
| GDP Growth | IVQ2014/IIIQ2014 SA ∆%: 0.0 |
| Labor Report | Feb 2015 Participation rate 64.0% Employment ratio 55.7% Unemployment rate 12.7% Youth Unemployment 42.6% Blog 4/5/15 |
| Industrial Production | Feb month ∆%: 0.6 |
| Retail Sales | Jan month ∆%: 0.1 Jan 12-month ∆%: 1.7 Blog 3/29/15 |
| Business Confidence | Mfg Mar 103.7, Nov 99.5 Construction Mar 116.0, Nov 103.7 Blog 4/5/15 |
| Trade Balance | Balance Feb SA €4576 million versus Jan €3914 |
Links to blog comments in Table IT:
4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html
3/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html
3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html
2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html
12/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/financial-risks-twenty-six-million.html
11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html
10/19/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/imf-view-squeeze-of-economic-activity.html
8/31/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitical-and-financial-risks.html
8/10/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/volatility-of-valuations-of-risk_10.html
6/15/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financialgeopolitical-risks-recovery.html
5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html
3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html
2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html
12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html
11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html
9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html
8/11/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/recovery-without-hiring-loss-of-full.html
6/16/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/recovery-without-hiring-seven-million.html
3/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html
Industrial production in Italy increased 0.6 percent in Feb 2015 and decreased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier calendar adjusted. Industrial production in Italy decreased 0.7 percent in Jan 2015 and decreased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier calendar adjusted. Industrial production increased 0.4 percent in Dec 2014 and 0.1 percent in 12 months. Italy’s industrial production increased 0.3 percent in Nov 2014 seasonally adjusted and decreased 1.7 percent in 12 months calendar adjusted, as shown in Table VG-1. Industrial production changed 0.0 percent in Oct 2014 and fell 2.5 percent in 12 months calendar adjusted. Industrial production fell 0.7 percent in Sep 2014 and decreased 2.2 percent in 12 months. Industrial production increased 0.1 percent in Aug 2014 and fell 0.5 percent in 12 months. Industrial production decreased 0.7 percent in Jul 2014 and decreased 1.1 percent in 12 months. Industrial production decreased 1.2 percent in May 2014 and fell 1.7 percent in 12 months. Industrial production increased 0.5 percent in Apr 2014 and 1.5 percent in 12 months. Industrial production decreased 0.2 percent in Mar 2014 and changed 0.0 percent in 12 months. Industrial production fell 1.0 percent in Feb 2014 but increased 0.5 percent in 12 months. Industrial production increased 1.5 percent in Jan 2014 and grew 1.3 percent in 12 months. Industrial production fell 1.2 percent in Dec 2013 and 1.4 percent in 12 months. Industrial production decreased 0.1 percent in Nov 2013 and increased 0.6 percent CA relative to a year earlier. Industrial production increased 0.5 percent in Oct 2013 and fell 0.6 percent in 12 months. Industrial production increased 0.8 percent in Sep 2013 and fell 3.1 percent in 12 months. In Aug 2013, industrial production decreased 0.4 percent and fell 4.6 percent in 12 months. Industrial production decreased 0.2 percent in Jul 2013 and fell 4.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2013. In the quarter Sep-Nov 2012, industrial production fell cumulatively 4.1 percent, at the annual equivalent rate of 15.6 percent. Industrial production fell 7.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2012. There have been negative changes with oscillations in monthly industrial production. Industrial production fell 18.8 percent in 2009 after falling 3.2 percent in 2008.
Table VG-1, Italy, Industrial Production ∆%
| Index CA | ∆% | Index | ∆% | |||
| 2013 | - | - | 91.8 | -3.2 | 91.4 | -3.2 |
| 2014 | - | - | 91.3 | -0.5 | 90.5 | -1.0 |
| 2014 | Index SA | Quarter ∆% | Index CA | 4Q∆% | Index | ∆% |
| IQ | 91.8 | -0.1 | 92.9 | 0.5 | 91.7 | 0.0 |
| IIQ | 91.4 | -0.4 | 95.1 | 0.0 | 93.3 | -1.5 |
| IIIQ | 90.8 | -0.7 | 85.9 | -1.5 | 86.2 | -0.9 |
| IVQ | 90.7 | -0.1 | 91.2 | -1.4 | 90.9 | -1.4 |
| 2013 | Index | Month ∆% | Index CA | 12 Month ∆% | ||
| Feb | 91.8 | -0.5 | 92.2 | -4.5 | 91.0 | -8.2 |
| Mar | 91.4 | -0.4 | 99.0 | -5.7 | 95.0 | -9.9 |
| Apr | 90.9 | -0.5 | 88.8 | -4.8 | 89.1 | -0.4 |
| May | 91.9 | 1.1 | 99.5 | -4.5 | 100.8 | -4.5 |
| Jun | 91.7 | -0.2 | 96.9 | -2.3 | 94.3 | -5.3 |
| Jul | 91.5 | -0.2 | 104.5 | -4.0 | 106.8 | -0.8 |
| Aug | 91.1 | -0.4 | 58.6 | -4.6 | 57.5 | -7.6 |
| Sep | 91.8 | 0.8 | 98.4 | -3.1 | 96.6 | -0.1 |
| Oct | 92.3 | 0.5 | 100.7 | -0.6 | 102.9 | -0.6 |
| Nov | 92.2 | -0.1 | 96.4 | 0.6 | 93.8 | -2.5 |
| Dec | 91.1 | -1.2 | 80.3 | -1.4 | 79.9 | 1.8 |
| 2014 | ||||||
| Jan | 92.5 | 1.5 | 87.1 | 1.3 | 87.4 | -1.9 |
| Feb | 91.6 | -1.0 | 92.7 | 0.5 | 91.5 | 0.5 |
| Mar | 91.4 | -0.2 | 99.0 | 0.0 | 96.3 | 1.4 |
| Apr | 91.9 | 0.5 | 90.1 | 1.5 | 89.2 | 0.1 |
| May | 90.8 | -1.2 | 97.8 | -1.7 | 96.0 | -4.8 |
| Jun | 91.5 | 0.8 | 97.3 | 0.4 | 94.6 | 0.3 |
| Jul | 90.9 | -0.7 | 103.3 | -1.1 | 105.6 | -1.1 |
| Aug | 91.0 | 0.1 | 58.3 | -0.5 | 55.5 | -3.5 |
| Sep | 90.4 | -0.7 | 96.2 | -2.2 | 97.4 | 0.8 |
| Oct | 90.4 | 0.0 | 98.2 | -2.5 | 100.3 | -2.5 |
| Nov | 90.7 | 0.3 | 94.8 | -1.7 | 92.2 | -1.7 |
| Dec | 91.1 | 0.4 | 80.5 | 0.2 | 80.1 | 0.3 |
| 2015 | ||||||
| Jan | 90.5 | -0.7 | 85.2 | -2.2 | 82.9 | -5.1 |
| Feb | 91.0 | 0.6 | 92.5 | -0.2 | 91.3 | -0.2 |
Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica
http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/155347
Chart VG-1 provides 12-month percentage changes of Italy’s index of industrial production. Industrial production improved from decline of 1.4 percent the 12 months ending in Dec 2013 to increase of 0.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2014 but decrease of 0.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2015.
Chart VG-1, Italy, Industrial Production, 12-Month Percentage Changes
Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica
Exports and imports of Italy and monthly growth rates SA are in Table VG-2. There have been significant fluctuations. Seasonally adjusted exports increased 2.5 percent in Feb 2015 while imports increased 0.6 percent. The SA trade balance improved from surplus of €3094 million in Jan 2015 to surplus of €4576 million in Feb 2015.
Table VG-2, Italy, Exports, Imports and Trade Balance SA Million Euros and Quarter and Month SA ∆%
| 2013 | Exports | ∆% | Imports | ∆% | Balance |
| IQ | 97,826 | -0.1 | 91,785 | -1.2 | 6,041 |
| IIQ | 98,118 | 0.3 | 89,545 | -2.4 | 8,573 |
| IIIQ | 98,153 | 0.0 | 91,600 | 2.3 | 6,553 |
| IVQ | 98,319 | 0.2 | 89,515 | -2.3 | 8,804 |
| 2014 | |||||
| IQ | 98,991 | 0.7 | 88,449 | -1.2 | 10,542 |
| IIQ | 99,489 | 0.5 | 89,400 | 1.1 | 10,089 |
| IIIQ | 99,358 | -0.1 | 89,240 | -0.2 | 10,118 |
| IVQ | 101,386 | 2.0 | 88,649 | -0.7 | 12,737 |
| 2013 | |||||
| Feb | 32,130 | -2.9 | 30,171 | -3.6 | 1,959 |
| Mar | 32,600 | 1.5 | 30,329 | 0.5 | 2,271 |
| Apr | 32,493 | -0.3 | 29,975 | -1.2 | 2,518 |
| May | 32,645 | 0.5 | 29,600 | -1.3 | 3,045 |
| Jun | 32,980 | 1.0 | 29,970 | 1.3 | 3,010 |
| Jul | 32,621 | -1.1 | 30,370 | 1.3 | 2,251 |
| Aug | 32,670 | 0.2 | 30,558 | 0.6 | 2,112 |
| Sep | 32,862 | 0.6 | 30,672 | 0.4 | 2,190 |
| Oct | 32,643 | -0.7 | 29,928 | -2.4 | 2,715 |
| Nov | 32,153 | -1.5 | 29,209 | -2.4 | 2,944 |
| Dec | 33,523 | 4.3 | 30,378 | 4.0 | 3,145 |
| 2014 | |||||
| Jan | 33,353 | -0.5 | 29,741 | -2.1 | 3,612 |
| Feb | 32,963 | -1.2 | 29,440 | -1.0 | 3,523 |
| Mar | 32,675 | -0.9 | 29,268 | -0.6 | 3,407 |
| Apr | 32,805 | 0.4 | 29,173 | -0.3 | 3,632 |
| May | 33,593 | 2.4 | 29,939 | 2.6 | 3,654 |
| Jun | 33,091 | -1.5 | 30,288 | 1.2 | 2,803 |
| Jul | 32,610 | -1.5 | 29,570 | -2.4 | 3,040 |
| Aug | 33,133 | 1.6 | 29,584 | 0.0 | 3,549 |
| Sep | 33,615 | 1.5 | 30,086 | 1.7 | 3,529 |
| Oct | 33,752 | 0.4 | 29,783 | -1.0 | 3,969 |
| Nov | 33,377 | -1.1 | 29,661 | -0.4 | 3,716 |
| Dec | 34,257 | 2.6 | 29,205 | -1.5 | 5,052 |
| 2015 | |||||
| Jan | 33,393 | -2.5 | 29,479 | 0.9 | 3,914 |
| Feb | 34,227 | 2.5 | 29,651 | 0.6 | 4,576 |
Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica
http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/156155
Italy’s trade account not seasonally adjusted is in Table VG-3. Values are different because the data are original and not adjusted. Exports increased 3.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2015 while imports increased 1.0 percent with actual trade surplus of €3538 million. Exports decreased 4.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2015 while imports decreased 4.2 percent with actual trade surplus of €232 million. Twelve-month rates of growth picked up again in Aug 2011 with 15.2 percent for exports and 12.6 percent for imports. In Sep 2011, exports grew 10.2 percent relative to a year earlier while imports grew only 3.6 percent. In Oct 2011, exports grew 4.5 percent while imports fell 0.2 percent. In Nov 2011, exports grew 6.5 percent in 12 months while imports grew 0.5 percent. Exports continued to growth of 7.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2012 while imports fell 1.8 percent. The actual or not seasonally adjusted trade balance deficit fell from €2948 million in Aug 2011 to surplus of €1407 million in Dec 2011 but turned into deficit of €4691 million in Jan 2012. The deficit improved to lower deficit of €1311 million in Feb 2012 and surplus of €1831 million in Mar 2012, returning to deficit of €421 million in Apr and surplus of €833 million in May. In Jun 2012, the actual surplus was €2681 million and then €4673 million in Jul 2012, which was the highest in 2012, but deteriorated to actual deficit of €535 million in Aug 2012. Exports fell 20.9 percent and imports 22.1 percent during the global recession in 2009. Growth of exports was 12.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2012 while imports increased 1.4 percent, increasing the trade surplus to €2337 million. The trade surplus was €2314 million in Dec 2012 with growth of exports of minus 4.5 percent in 12 months while imports fell 7.8 percent. The trade balance deteriorated to deficit of €1852 million in Jan 2013 even with growth of exports of 9.0 percent in 12 months while imports fell 1.1 percent. The trade balance returned to surplus of €1053 million in Feb 2013 with decline of exports by 2.8 percent and decrease of imports by 9.8 percent. The surplus widened to €3030 million in Mar 2013 with exports declining 5.9 percent and imports falling 9.8 percent. The surplus shrank to €1946 million in Apr 2013 with growth of exports of 4.6 and decline of imports of 3.1 percent. The surplus increased to €3913 million in May 2013 with declines of exports of 1.5 percent and of imports of 10.5 percent. The surplus declined to €3425 million in Jun 2013 with decline of exports of 3.1 percent in 12 months and of imports of 5.7 percent.
Table VG-3, Italy, Exports, Imports and Trade Balance NSA Million Euros and Year-on-Year ∆%
| Exports | ∆% | Imports | ∆% | Balance | |
| 2012 | 390,182 | 3.8 | 380,292 | -5.3 | 9,890 |
| 2013 | 390,233 | 0.0 | 361,002 | -5.1 | 29,230 |
| 2014 | 397,996 | 2.0 | 355,115 | -1.6 | 42,882 |
| 2012 | |||||
| IQ | 95,398 | 5.8 | 99,568 | -4.0 | -4,170 |
| IIQ | 100,172 | 3.0 | 97,079 | -6.9 | 3,093 |
| IIIQ | 94,938 | 2.6 | 90,670 | -5.7 | 4,268 |
| IVQ | 99,674 | 3.9 | 92,975 | -4.4 | 6,699 |
| 2013 | |||||
| IQ | 94,837 | -0.6 | 92,606 | -7.0 | 2,231 |
| IIQ | 99,971 | -0.2 | 90,687 | -6.6 | 9,284 |
| IIIQ | 95,197 | 0.3 | 87,750 | -3.2 | 7,447 |
| IVQ | 100,227 | 0.6 | 89,959 | -3.2 | 10,268 |
| 2014 | |||||
| IQ | 96,151 | 1.4 | 89,407 | -3.5 | 6,744 |
| IIQ | 100,736 | 0.8 | 90,277 | -0.5 | 10,459 |
| IIIQ | 97,260 | 2.2 | 86,256 | -1.7 | 11,003 |
| IVQ | 103,851 | 3.6 | 89,174 | -0.9 | 14,676 |
| 2013 | |||||
| Feb | 30,921 | -2.8 | 29,868 | -9.8 | 1,053 |
| Mar | 33,959 | -5.9 | 30,929 | -9.8 | 3,030 |
| Apr | 31,959 | 4.6 | 30,013 | -3.1 | 1,946 |
| May | 34,689 | -1.5 | 30,775 | -10.5 | 3,913 |
| Jun | 33,324 | -3.1 | 29,899 | -5.7 | 3,425 |
| Jul | 38,415 | 3.3 | 32,546 | 0.1 | 5,869 |
| Aug | 24,589 | -6.0 | 23,689 | -11.3 | 900 |
| Sep | 32,194 | 1.9 | 31,515 | 0.2 | 679 |
| Oct | 36,291 | 0.7 | 32,444 | -3.7 | 3,847 |
| Nov | 32,572 | -3.3 | 29,584 | -6.5 | 2,988 |
| Dec | 31,364 | 4.7 | 27,931 | 1.1 | 3,433 |
| 2014 | |||||
| Jan | 30,074 | 0.4 | 29,823 | -6.2 | 251 |
| Feb | 31,802 | 2.8 | 29,151 | -2.4 | 2,651 |
| Mar | 34,274 | 0.9 | 30,433 | -1.6 | 3,842 |
| Apr | 32,498 | 1.7 | 28,991 | -3.4 | 3,507 |
| May | 34,685 | 0.0 | 31,065 | 0.9 | 3,620 |
| Jun | 33,552 | 0.7 | 30,220 | 1.1 | 3,332 |
| Jul | 38,616 | 0.5 | 31,694 | -2.6 | 6,923 |
| Aug | 24,069 | -2.1 | 22,009 | -7.1 | 2,060 |
| Sep | 34,574 | 7.4 | 32,554 | 3.3 | 2,020 |
| Oct | 37,335 | 2.9 | 31,939 | -1.6 | 5,396 |
| Nov | 33,138 | 1.7 | 29,599 | 0.1 | 3,539 |
| Dec | 33,377 | 6.4 | 27,636 | -1.1 | 5,741 |
| 2015 | |||||
| Jan | 28,814 | -4.2 | 28,582 | -4.2 | 232 |
| Feb | 32,983 | 3.7 | 29,445 | 1.0 | 3,538 |
Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica
http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/156155
Growth rates of Italy’s trade and major products are in Table VG-4 for the period Jan-Feb 2015 relative to Jan-Feb 2014. Growth rates of cumulative imports relative to a year earlier are negative for energy with minus 30.9 percent. Exports of durable goods increased 2.6 percent and exports of capital goods increased 4.9 percent. The rate of growth of exports of minus 0.1 percent in Jan-Feb 2015/Jan-Feb 2014 relative to that of imports of minus 1.6 percent may reflect weak demand in Italy with GDP declining during eight consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 through IIQ2013 together with softening commodity prices. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2013, changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2013, decreased 0.1 percent in IQ2014 and fell 0.2 percent in IIQ2014. Italy’s GDP fell 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 and changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2014.
Table VG-4, Italy, Exports and Imports % Share of Products in Total and ∆%
| Exports | Exports | Imports | Imports | |
| Consumer | 31.6 | 0.8 | 28.6 | 3.2 |
| Durable | 6.0 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 11.8 |
| Non-Durable | 25.6 | 0.4 | 25.4 | 2.2 |
| Capital Goods | 33.1 | 4.9 | 21.9 | 12.5 |
| Inter- | 31.7 | -2.2 | 33.2 | 1.5 |
| Energy | 3.7 | -28.6 | 16.3 | -30.9 |
| Total ex Energy | 96.3 | 1.1 | 83.7 | 4.8 |
| Total | 100.0 | -0.1 | 100.0 | -1.6 |
Note: % Share for 2014 total trade.
http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/156155
Table VG-5 provides Italy’s trade balance by product categories in Feb 2015 and cumulative Jan-Feb 2015. Italy’s trade balance excluding energy, generated surplus of €6147 million in Feb 2015 and €9255 million cumulative in Jan-Feb 2015 but the energy trade balance created deficit of €2609 million in Feb 2015 and cumulative €5486 million in Jan-Feb 2015. The overall surplus in Feb 2015 was €3538 million with cumulative surplus of €3770 million in Jan-Feb 2015. Italy has significant competitiveness in various economic activities in contrast with some other countries with debt difficulties.
Table VG-5, Italy, Trade Balance by Product Categories, € Millions
| Feb 2015 | Cumulative 2015 | |
| Consumer Goods | 1,878 | 2,855 |
| Durable | 1,065 | 1,674 |
| Nondurable | 813 | 1,180 |
| Capital Goods | 4,097 | 6,732 |
| Intermediate Goods | 172 | -332 |
| Energy | -2,609 | -5,486 |
| Total ex Energy | 6,147 | 9,255 |
| Total | 3,538 | 3,770 |
Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica
http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/156155
Professors Ricardo Caballero and Francesco Giavazzi (2012Jan15) find that the resolution of the European sovereign crisis with survival of the euro area would require success in the restructuring of Italy. Growth of the Italian economy would ensure that success. A critical problem is that the common euro currency prevents Italy from devaluing the exchange rate to parity or the exchange rate that would permit export growth to promote internal economic activity, which could generate fiscal revenues for primary fiscal surpluses that ensure creditworthiness. Fiscal consolidation and restructuring are important but of long-term gestation. Immediate growth of the Italian economy would consolidate the resolution of the sovereign debt crisis. Caballero and Giavazzi (2012Jan15) argue that 55 percent of the exports of Italy are to countries outside the euro area such that devaluation of 15 percent would be effective in increasing export revenue. Newly available data in Table VG-6 providing Italy’s trade with regions and countries supports the argument of Caballero and Giavazzi (2012Jan15). Italy’s exports to the European Monetary Union (EMU), or euro area, are only 40.3 percent of the total in Feb 2015. Exports to the non-European Union area with share of 45.3 percent in Italy’s total exports are growing at 2.0 percent in Feb 2015 relative to Feb 2014 while those to EMU are growing at minus 6.7 percent.
Table VG-6, Italy, Exports and Imports by Regions and Countries, % Share and 12-Month ∆%
| Feb 2015 | Exports | ∆% Jan-Feb 2015/ Jan-Feb 2014 | Imports | ∆% Jan-Feb 2015/ Jan-Feb 2014 |
| EU | 54.7 | -1.8 | 57.1 | 2.2 |
| EMU 19 | 40.3 | -3.5 | 45.3 | 0.7 |
| France | 10.6 | -6.7 | 8.6 | -1.5 |
| Germany | 12.6 | -3.7 | 15.4 | -0.3 |
| Spain | 4.5 | 2.7 | 4.8 | 3.9 |
| UK | 5.3 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| Non EU | 45.3 | 2.0 | 42.9 | -6.4 |
| Europe non EU | 11.8 | -6.3 | 11.3 | -13.5 |
| USA | 7.5 | 36.8 | 3.5 | 18.0 |
| China | 2.6 | -7.8 | 7.1 | 13.3 |
| OPEC | 5.7 | 0.4 | 5.8 | -24.0 |
| Total | 100.0 | -0.1 | 100.0 | -1.6 |
Notes: EU: European Union; EMU: European Monetary Union (euro zone)
Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica
http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/156155
Table VG-7 provides Italy’s trade balance by regions and countries. Italy had trade deficit of € 356 million with the 19 countries of the euro zone (EMU 19) in Feb 2015 and cumulative deficit of €834 million in Feb 2015. Depreciation to parity could permit greater competitiveness in improving the trade surplus of €912 million in Jan-Feb 2015 with Europe non-European Union, the trade surplus of €3213 million with the US and the trade surplus with non-European Union of €2613 million in Jan-Feb 2015. There is significant rigidity in the trade deficit in Jan-Feb 2015 of €3593 million with China. There is a trade surplus of €354 million with members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Higher exports could drive economic growth in the economy of Italy that would permit less onerous adjustment of the country’s fiscal imbalances, raising the country’s credit rating.
Table VG-7, Italy, Trade Balance by Regions and Countries, Millions of Euro
| Regions and Countries | Trade Balance Feb 2015 Millions of Euro | Trade Balance Cumulative Jan-Feb 2015 Millions of Euro |
| EU | 691 | 1,156 |
| EMU 19 | -356 | -834 |
| France | 826 | 1,624 |
| Germany | -567 | -837 |
| Spain | 48 | 119 |
| UK | 901 | 1,689 |
| Non EU | 2,847 | 2,613 |
| Europe non EU | 579 | 912 |
| USA | 2,039 | 3,213 |
| China | -1,757 | -3,593 |
| OPEC | 375 | 354 |
| Total | 3,538 | 3,770 |
Notes: EU: European Union; EMU: European Monetary Union (euro zone)
Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica
http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/156155
VH United Kingdom. Annual data in Table VH-UK show the strong impact of the global recession in the UK with decline of GDP of 4.3 percent in 2009 after dropping 0.3 percent in 2008. Recovery of 1.9 percent in 2010 is relatively low in comparison with annual growth rates in 2007 and earlier years. Growth was only 1.6 percent in 2011 and 0.7 percent in 2012. Growth increased to 1.7 percent in 2013 and 2.8 percent in 2014. The bottom part of Table VH-UK provides average growth rates of UK GDP since 1948. The UK economy grew at 2.6 percent per year on average between 1948 and 2014, which is relatively high for an advanced economy. The growth rate of GDP between 2000 and 2007 is higher at 2.9 percent. Growth in the current cyclical expansion from 2010 to 2014 has been only at 1.7 percent as advanced economies struggle with weak internal demand and world trade. GDP in 2014 higher by 4.0 percent relative to 2007 while it would have been 22.2 higher at trend of 2.9 percent as from 2000 to 2007.
Table VH-UK, UK, Gross Domestic Product, ∆%
| ∆% on Prior Year | |
| 1998 | 3.5 |
| 1999 | 3.2 |
| 2000 | 3.8 |
| 2001 | 2.7 |
| 2002 | 2.5 |
| 2003 | 4.3 |
| 2004 | 2.5 |
| 2005 | 2.8 |
| 2006 | 3.0 |
| 2007 | 2.6 |
| 2008 | -0.3 |
| 2009 | -4.3 |
| 2010 | 1.9 |
| 2011 | 1.6 |
| 2012 | 0.7 |
| 2013 | 1.7 |
| 2014 | 2.8 |
| Average Growth Rates ∆% per Year | |
| 1948-2014 | 2.6 |
| 1950-1959 | 3.1 |
| 1960-1969 | 3.1 |
| 1970-1979 | 2.6 |
| 1980-1989 | 3.1 |
| 1990-1999 | 2.2 |
| 2000-2007 | 2.9 |
| 2007-2013* | 1.1 |
| 2007-2014* | 4.0 |
| 2000-2014 | 1.7 |
*Absolute change from 2007 to 2013 and from 2007 to 2014
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/quarterly-national-accounts/q4-2014/index.html
The Business Activity Index of the Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI® increased from 56.7 in Feb to 58.9 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/eea7d1909f424b1183ca33dba0220983). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds the combined indices consistent with the UK economy growing at around 0.7 percent in IQ2015 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/eea7d1909f424b1183ca33dba0220983). The Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®) increased to 54.4 in Mar from 54.0 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/755229914755421b894871d706a09d19). New export orders increased. Rob Dobson, Senior Economist at Markit that compiles the Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI®, finds that manufacturing conditions suggest growth at a quarterly rate of 0.6 percent (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/755229914755421b894871d706a09d19). Table UK provides the economic indicators for the United Kingdom.
Table UK, UK Economic Indicators
| CPI | Mar month ∆%: 0.2 |
| Output/Input Prices | Output Prices: Mar 12-month NSA ∆%: -1.7; excluding food, petroleum ∆%: 0.1 |
| GDP Growth | IVQ2014 prior quarter ∆% 0.6; year earlier same quarter ∆%: 3.0 |
| Industrial Production | Feb 2015/Feb 2014 ∆%: Production Industries 0.1; Manufacturing 1.1 |
| Retail Sales | Jan month ∆%: -0.3 |
| Labor Market | Dec-Feb Unemployment Rate: 5.6%; Claimant Count 2.3%; Earnings Growth 1.7% |
| GDP and the Labor Market | IVQ2014 Employment 102.6 IQ2008 =100 GDP IIIQ14 103.4 IQ2008=100 Blog 3/22/14 |
| Trade Balance | Balance SA Feb minus ₤2859 million |
Links to blog comments in Table UK:
4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html
4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html
3/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html
3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html
2/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html
2/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html
12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html
11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html
10/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/financial-oscillations-world-inflation.html
10/5/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/world-financial-turbulence-twenty-seven.html
8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html
7/27/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html
6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html
5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html
5/4/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html
4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html
3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html
2/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html
12/22/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html
12/1/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/exit-risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html
10/27/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/twenty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html
9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html
8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html
7/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html
5/26/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html
4/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_28.html
03/31/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html
Table VH-L1 of the UK Office for national Statistics provides the data for GDP and the labor market (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q4-2014--quarterly-update/index.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q3-2014--quaterly-update/index.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q2-2014--august-quarterly-update/index.html
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q1-2014--may-gdp-update/index.html
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q1-2014--april-gdp-update/index.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2013-q4--march-gdp-update/index.html
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q4-2013--february-gdp-update/index.html
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q4-2013--january-gdp-update/index.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q3-2013--december-gdp-update/sum-dec-gdp.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q3-2013--november-gdp-update/sum-nov-gdp.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q3-2013--october-gdp-update/sum-october-gdp.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2013-q2--august-labour-market update/index.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2013-q1--may-gdp-update/index.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2013-q1--may-labour-market-update/sum-may13-labour.html) Table VH-L1 provides total output and employment quarterly from 2008 to 2014. Improving output has been accompanied recently by improvements in hours worked and employment. From IQ2008 to IVQ2014, employment increased 2.6 percent while GDP was 3.4 percent higher. In IVQ2014, GDP grew 0.5 percent relative to IIIQ2014 and is now 3.4 percent above the peak in IQ2008 (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q4-2014--quarterly-update/index.html).
Table VH-L1, UK, Indices of Quarterly Employment Ages 16 and Over, Total Hours Worked, GDP and Output per Hour, 2008-2014
| GDP, CVM | Employment, Aged 16-64 | Male Employment, Aged 16-64 | Female Employment, Aged 16-64 | |
| 2008 Q1 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Q2 | 99.8 | 100.1 | 100.0 | 100.2 |
| Q3 | 98.1 | 99.6 | 99.4 | 99.9 |
| Q4 | 95.9 | 99.4 | 99.1 | 99.8 |
| 2009 Q1 | 94.2 | 98.8 | 98.3 | 99.4 |
| Q2 | 94.0 | 97.8 | 96.8 | 98.9 |
| Q3 | 94.1 | 97.6 | 96.3 | 99.1 |
| Q4 | 94.5 | 97.7 | 96.2 | 99.4 |
| 2010 Q1 | 95.0 | 97.3 | 95.9 | 99.1 |
| Q2 | 95.9 | 97.8 | 96.7 | 99.1 |
| Q3 | 96.5 | 98.4 | 97.5 | 99.4 |
| Q4 | 96.6 | 98.1 | 97.3 | 99.0 |
| 2011 Q1 | 97.1 | 98.5 | 97.5 | 99.6 |
| Q2 | 97.3 | 98.5 | 97.6 | 99.5 |
| Q3 | 98.0 | 98.0 | 96.7 | 99.5 |
| Q4 | 98.0 | 98.1 | 97.0 | 99.4 |
| 2012 Q1 | 98.0 | 98.5 | 97.5 | 99.6 |
| Q2 | 97.9 | 99.0 | 98.1 | 100.0 |
| Q3 | 98.7 | 99.3 | 98.4 | 100.4 |
| Q4 | 98.3 | 99.7 | 98.6 | 101.1 |
| 2013 Q1 | 98.9 | 99.5 | 98.1 | 101.1 |
| Q2 | 99.6 | 99.7 | 98.3 | 101.3 |
| Q3 | 100.3 | 100.2 | 99.1 | 101.4 |
| Q4 | 100.7 | 100.7 | 99.5 | 102.2 |
| 2014 Q1 | 101.3 | 101.5 | 100.3 | 102.9 |
| Q2 | 102.1 | 102.0 | 100.7 | 103.5 |
| Q3 | 102.9 | 102.3 | 101.0 | 103.8 |
| Q4 | 103.4 | 102.6 | 101.1 | 104.4 |
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q4-2014--quarterly-update/index.html
Chart VH-1 of the UK Office for National Statistics (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q4-2014--quarterly-update/index.html) provides GDP and employment indexed to IQ2008 when GDP reached its highest pre-downturn level. GDP increased 3.4 percent during the entire cycle from IQ2008 to IVQ2014 and employment increased 2.6 percent.
Chart VH-1, UK, GDP and Employment, 2008-2014
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q4-2014--quarterly-update/index.html
Chart VH-2 of the UK Office for National Statistics provides comparison of output performance during four cycles in the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. Output is indexed to the pre-recession peak. For example, the index for the current economic cycles is 100 for IQ2008. Output performance was stronger in the earlier economic cycles.
Chart VH-2, UK, Index of Output in Economic Cycles
UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q4-2013--january-gdp-update/index.html
Table VH-L2 provides output in the four economic cycles. Output increased 8.8 percent in the cycle of the early 1970s, 11.7 percent in the cycle of the 1980s and 15.8 percent in the cycle of the 1990s. Output is 1.3 percent below the pre-recession peak in IQ2008.
Table VH-L2, Index of Output in Economic Cycles, Pre-Contraction = 100
| Early 70s (1973 Q2=100) | Early 80s (1979 Q4=100) | Early 90s (1990 Q2=100) | Latest (2008 Q1=100) |
| ABMI | ABMI | ABMI | ABMI |
| 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| 99.1 | 99.0 | 99.1 | 99.1 |
| 99.1 | 97.3 | 98.4 | 97.6 |
| 96.8 | 97.1 | 98.3 | 95.6 |
| 98.6 | 95.8 | 97.9 | 93.2 |
| 99.5 | 95.4 | 97.6 | 92.8 |
| 98.4 | 95.4 | 97.9 | 92.8 |
| 98.6 | 96.6 | 98.4 | 93.2 |
| 97.2 | 96.6 | 98.6 | 93.7 |
| 97.0 | 97.1 | 99.4 | 94.6 |
| 98.4 | 98.3 | 100.3 | 95.0 |
| 100.0 | 98.3 | 101.4 | 94.8 |
| 99.1 | 99.0 | 102.1 | 95.3 |
| 100.0 | 100.4 | 103.2 | 95.4 |
| 102.1 | 101.3 | 104.1 | 95.9 |
| 102.3 | 102.5 | 105.5 | 95.8 |
| 101.8 | 103.8 | 107.1 | 95.7 |
| 102.5 | 104.8 | 108.7 | 95.4 |
| 104.1 | 104.2 | 109.6 | 96.1 |
| 104.6 | 104.6 | 110.1 | 96.0 |
| 105.5 | 106.3 | 110.9 | 96.5 |
| 106.7 | 107.5 | 112.3 | 97.3 |
| 107.6 | 109.2 | 112.9 | 98.0 |
| 106.7 | 109.2 | 114.2 | 98.7 |
| 111.3 | 110.1 | 114.8 | |
| 108.8 | 111.7 | 115.8 |
UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q4-2013--january-gdp-update/index.html
Labor market statistics of the UK for the quarter Dec 2014-Feb 2015 are in Table VH-L2. The unemployment rate fell to 5.6 percent and the number unemployed decreased 416,000 in the year, reaching 1.838 million. The employment rate is 73.4 percent. Earnings including bonuses increased 1.7 percent over the earlier year. The claimant count or those receiving unemployment benefits stands at 2.3 percent, down 0.1 percentage points on the month and down 1.0 percentage points on the year.
Table VH-L2, UK, Labor Market Statistics
| Quarter Dec 2014-Feb 2015 | |
| Unemployment Rate | 5.6 %, 5.8% prior quarter and 6.9% year earlier |
| Number Unemployed | (1) Down 76,000 on quarter and down 416,000 from year earlier to reach 1.838 million (2) Unemployment rate 16 to 24 years of age 16.1% of that age group (3) Unemployed 16 to 24 years excluding those in full-time education 489,000 (253,000 in full-time education); unemployment rate 16.1% change -0.8% Points |
| Number Unemployed > one and two years | (1) Number unemployed over one year: 623,000, down 35,000 on quarter, down 188,000 on year (2) Number unemployed over two years: 351,000, down 4,000 on quarter, down 82,000 on year |
| Inactivity Rate 16-64 Years of Age (Definition: Not in employment but have not been seeking employment in the past four weeks or are unable to start work in two weeks) | (1) 22.1%, 22.4% prior quarter, 22.1% year earlier (2) Economically inactive 16-64 down 104,000 on quarter and up 11,000 on year to 8.990 million |
| Employment Rate | 73.4%, 73.0% prior quarter, 72.4% year earlier |
| Number Employed | (1) Up 248,000 on quarter, +557,000 on year to 31.049 million (2) Number of employees up 583,000 on year to 26.302 million (3) Self-employed fell 1,000 on year to 4.523 million (4) Full-time 22.688 million, up 448,000 on year (5) 8.361 million working part-time, up 109,000 on year |
| Earnings Growth Rates Year on Year | (1) Total 1.7% (including bonuses) over year earlier; regular 1.8%; private sector 2.0% on year earlier, public sector 0.8 % on year earlier (2) Regular private 2.2% (excluding bonuses); regular public 0.9% on year earlier |
| Full-time and Part-time | (1) Number employees full-time 19.429 million, up 535,000 on year; self-employed full-time 3.192 million down 68,000 on year (2) Number employees part-time 6.872 million, up 47,000 on year; self-employed part-time 1.331 million, up 66,000 in year |
| Claimant Count (Jobseeker’s Allowance, JSA) | (1) Latest estimate: 772,400,000; down 20,700 in month, down 369,400 on year earlier (2) Claimant count 2.3%, down 0.1 on month and down 1.0 % points on year |
Note: Labor Force Survey does not measure monthly changes. Comparisons on quarter are on quarter before prior quarter
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/taxonomy/index.html?nscl=Labour+Market#tab-sum-pub
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/april-2015/statistical-bulletin.html
Table VH-L3 provides indicators of the labor force survey of the UK for Dec 2014-Feb 2015 and earlier quarters. There has been improvement in UK labor markets with the rate of unemployment decreasing from 6.9 percent in Dec 2013-Feb 2014 to 5.6 percent in Dec 2014-Feb 2015.
Table VH-L3, UK, Labor Force Survey Indicators
| LFHP | EMP | PART | UNE | RATE | |
| Dec-Feb 2013 | 40,524 | 29,827 | 71.2 | 2,582 | 8.0 |
| Dec-Feb 2014 | 40,592 | 30,491 | 72.4 | 2,254 | 6.9 |
| Mar-May 2014 | 40,612 | 30,717 | 72.9 | 2,126 | 6.5 |
| Jun-Aug 2014 | 40,633 | 30,763 | 73.0 | 1,972 | 6.0 |
| Sep-Nov 2014 | 40,657 | 30,801 | 73.0 | 1.914 | 5.8 |
| Dec-Feb 2015 | 40,681 | 31,049 | 73.4 | 1,838 | 5.6 |
Notes: LFHP: Labor Force Household Population Ages 16 to 64 in thousands; EMP: Employed Ages 16 and over in thousands; PART: Employment as % of Population Ages 16 to 64; UNE: Unemployed Ages 16 and over in thousands; Rate: Number Unemployed Ages 16 and over as % of Employed plus Unemployed
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/taxonomy/index.html?nscl=Labour+Market#tab-sum-pub
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/april-2015/statistical-bulletin.html
© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015.
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