Volatility of Valuations of Financial Assets, Twenty Seven Million Unemployed or Underemployed, Stagnating Real Wages, Stagnating Real Disposable Income per Capita, Financial Repression, United States International Trade, World Cyclical Slow Growth and Global Recession Risk: Part VI

 

Volatility of Valuations of Financial Assets, Twenty Seven Million Unemployed or Underemployed, Stagnating Real Wages, Stagnating Real Disposable Income per Capita, Financial Repression, United States International Trade, World Cyclical Slow Growth and Global Recession Risk

Carlos M. Pelaez

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015

I Twenty Seven Million Unemployed or Underemployed

IA1 Summary of the Employment Situation

IA2 Number of People in Job Stress

IA3 Long-term and Cyclical Comparison of Employment

IA4 Job Creation

IB Stagnating Real Wages

II Stagnating Real Disposable Income and Consumption Expenditures

IB1 Stagnating Real Disposable Income and Consumption Expenditures

IB2 Financial Repression

IIA United States International Trade

III World Financial Turbulence

IIIA Financial Risks

IIIE Appendix Euro Zone Survival Risk

IIIF Appendix on Sovereign Bond Valuation

IV Global Inflation

V World Economic Slowdown

VA United States

VB Japan

VC China

VD Euro Area

VE Germany

VF France

VG Italy

VH United Kingdom

VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets

VII Economic Indicators

VIII Interest Rates

IX Conclusion

References

Appendixes

Appendix I The Great Inflation

IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies

IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact

IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort

IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis

IIIGA Monetary Policy with Deficit Financing of Economic Growth

IIIGB Adjustment during the Debt Crisis of the 1980s

VC China. China estimates an index of nonmanufacturing purchasing managers based on a sample of 1200 nonmanufacturing enterprises across the country (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Table CIPMNM provides this index and components. The total index increased from 55.7 in Jan 2011 to 58.0 in Mar 2012, decreasing to 53.9 in Aug 2013. The index decreased from 56.0 in Nov 2013 to 54.6 in Dec 2013, easing to 53.4 in Jan 2014. The index moved to 53.7 in Mar 2015. The index of new orders increased from 52.2 in Jan 2012 to 54.3 in Dec 2012 but fell to 50.1 in May 2013, barely above the neutral frontier of 50.0. The index of new orders stabilized at 51.0 in Nov-Dec 2013, easing to 50.9 in Jan 2014. The index of new orders moved to 50.3 in Mar 2015.

Table CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted

	Total Index	New Orders	Interm. Input Prices	Subs Prices	Exp
Mar 2015	53.7	50.3	50.0	48.4	58.8
Feb	53.9	51.2	52.5	51.2	58.7
Jan	53.7	50.2	47.6	46.9	59.6
Dec 2014	54.1	50.5	50.1	47.3	59.5
Nov	53.9	50.1	50.6	47.7	59.7
Oct	53.8	51.0	52.0	48.8	59.9
Sep	54.0	49.5	49.8	47.3	60.9
Aug	54.4	50.0	52.2	48.3	61.2
Jul	54.2	50.7	53.4	49.5	61.5
Jun	55.0	50.7	56.0	50.8	60.4
May	55.5	52.7	54.5	49.0	60.7
Apr	54.8	50.8	52.4	49.4	61.5
Mar	54.5	50.8	52.8	49.5	61.5
Feb	55.0	51.4	52.1	49.0	59.9
Jan	53.4	50.9	54.5	50.1	58.1
Dec 2013	54.6	51.0	56.9	52.0	58.7
Nov	56.0	51.0	54.8	49.5	61.3
Oct	56.3	51.6	56.1	51.4	60.5
Sep	55.4	53.4	56.7	50.6	60.1
Aug	53.9	50.9	57.1	51.2	62.9
Jul	54.1	50.3	58.2	52.4	63.9
Jun	53.9	50.3	55.0	50.6	61.8
May	54.3	50.1	54.4	50.7	62.9
Apr	54.5	50.9	51.1	47.6	62.5
Mar	55.6	52.0	55.3	50.0	62.4
Feb	54.5	51.8	56.2	51.1	62.7
Jan	56.2	53.7	58.2	50.9	61.4
Dec 2012	56.1	54.3	53.8	50.0	64.6
Nov	55.6	53.2	52.5	48.4	64.6
Oct	55.5	51.6	58.1	50.5	63.4
Sep	53.7	51.8	57.5	51.3	60.9
Aug	56.3	52.7	57.6	51.2	63.2
Jul	55.6	53.2	49.7	48.7	63.9
Jun	56.7	53.7	52.1	48.6	65.5
May	55.2	52.5	53.6	48.5	65.4
Apr	56.1	52.7	57.9	50.3	66.1
Mar	58.0	53.5	60.2	52.0	66.6
Feb	57.3	52.7	59.0	51.2	63.8
Jan	55.7	52.2	58.2	51.1	65.3

Notes: Interm.: Intermediate; Subs: Subscription; Exp: Business Expectations

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart CIPMNM provides China’s nonmanufacturing purchasing managers’ index. The index fell from 56.0 in Oct 2013 to 53.7 in Mar 2015.

Chart CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Table CIPMMFG provides the index of purchasing managers of manufacturing seasonally adjusted of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The general index (IPM) rose from 50.5 in Jan 2012 to 53.3 in Apr 2012, falling to 49.2 in Aug 2012, rebounding to 50.6 in Dec 2012. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013, barely above the neutral frontier at 50.0, recovering to 51.4 in Nov 2013 but falling to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.5 in Jan 2014, 50.1 in Dec 2014 and 50.1 in Mar 2015. The index of new orders fell from 54.5 in Apr 2012 to 51.2 in Dec 2012. The index of new orders fell from 52.3 in Nov 2013 to 52.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.9 in Jan 2014 and moved to 50.4 in Dec 2014. The index moved to 50.2 in Mar 2015.

Table CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted

	IPM	PI	NOI	INV	EMP	SDEL
2015
Mar	50.1	52.1	50.2	48.0	48.4	50.1
Feb	49.9	51.4	50.4	48.2	47.8	49.9
Jan	49.8	51.7	50.2	47.3	47.9	50.2
2014
Dec	50.1	52.2	50.4	47.5	48.1	49.9
Nov	50.3	52.5	50.9	47.7	48.2	50.3
Oct	50.8	53.1	51.6	48.4	48.4	50.1
Sep	51.1	53.6	52.2	48.8	48.2	50.1
Aug	51.1	53.2	52.5	48.6	48.2	50.0
Jul	51.7	54.2	53.6	49.0	48.3	50.2
Jun	51.0	53.0	52.8	48.0	48.6	50.5
May	50.8	52.8	52.3	48.0	48.2	50.3
Apr	50.4	52.5	51.2	48.1	48.3	50.1
Mar	50.3	52.7	50.6	47.8	48.3	49.8
Feb	50.2	52.6	50.5	47.4	48.0	49.9
Jan	50.5	53.0	50.9	47.8	48.2	49.8
Dec 2013	51.0	53.9	52.0	47.6	48.7	50.5
Nov	51.4	54.5	52.3	47.8	49.6	50.6
Oct	51.4	54.4	52.5	48.6	49.2	50.8
Sep	51.1	52.9	52.8	48.5	49.1	50.8
Aug	51.0	52.6	52.4	48.0	49.3	50.4
Jul	50.3	52.4	50.6	47.6	49.1	50.1
Jun	50.1	52.0	50.4	47.4	48.7	50.3
May	50.8	53.3	51.8	47.6	48.8	50.8
Apr	50.6	52.6	51.7	47.5	49.0	50.8
Mar	50.9	52.7	52.3	47.5	49.8	51.1
Feb	50.1	51.2	50.1	49.5	47.6	48.3
Jan	50.4	51.3	51.6	50.1	47.8	50.0
Dec 2012	50.6	52.0	51.2	47.3	49.0	48.8
Nov	50.6	52.5	51.2	47.9	48.7	49.9
Oct	50.2	52.1	50.4	47.3	49.2	50.1
Sep	49.8	51.3	49.8	47.0	48.9	49.5
Aug	49.2	50.9	48.7	45.1	49.1	50.0
Jul	50.1	51.8	49.0	48.5	49.5	49.0
Jun	50.2	52.0	49.2	48.2	49.7	49.1
May	50.4	52.9	49.8	45.1	50.5	49.0
Apr	53.3	57.2	54.5	48.5	51.0	49.6
Mar	53.1	55.2	55.1	49.5	51.0	48.9
Feb	51.0	53.8	51.0	48.8	49.5	50.3
Jan	50.5	53.6	50.4	49.7	47.1	49.7

IPM: Index of Purchasing Managers; PI: Production Index; NOI: New Orders Index; EMP: Employed Person Index; SDEL: Supplier Delivery Time Index

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

China estimates the manufacturing index of purchasing managers on the basis of a sample of 820 enterprises (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Chart CIPMMFG provides the manufacturing index of purchasing managers. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013. The index decreased from 51.4 in Nov 2013 to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index moved to 50.1 in Mar 2015.

Chart CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Cumulative growth of China’s GDP in IVQ2014 relative to the same period in 2013 was 7.4 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDP. Secondary industry accounts for 42.6 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2014. In cumulative IVQ2014, industry accounts for 35.8 percent of GDP and construction for 7.0 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 48.2 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2014 and primary industry for 9.2 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is shifting to lower growth rates with improvement in living standards. The bottom block of Table VC-GDP provides quarter-on-quarter growth rates of GDP and their annual equivalent. China’s GDP growth decelerated significantly from annual equivalent 10.4 percent in IIQ2011 to 7.4 percent in IVQ2011 and 5.7 percent in IQ2012, rebounding to 8.7 percent in IIQ2012, 8.2 percent in IIIQ2012 and 7.8 percent in IVQ2012. Annual equivalent growth in IQ2013 fell to 7.0 percent and to 7.4 percent in IIQ2013, rebounding to 9.5 percent in IIIQ2013. Annual equivalent growth was 7.4 percent in IVQ2013, declining to 6.6 percent in IQ2014 and increasing to 7.8 percent in IIQ2014. Annual equivalent growth slowed to 7.8 percent in IIIQ2014 and 6.1 percent in IVQ2014.

Table VC-GDP, China, Quarterly Growth of GDP, Current CNY 100 Million and Inflation Adjusted ∆%

Cumulative GDP IVQ2014	Value Current CNY Billion	2014 Year-on-Year Constant Prices ∆%
GDP	63,646.3	7.4
Primary Industry	5833.2	4.1
Farming	6015.1	4.2
Secondary Industry	27,139.2	7.3
Industry	22,799.1	7.0
Construction	4472.5	8.9
Tertiary Industry	30,673.9	8.1
Transport, Storage, Post	2875.0	7.0
Wholesale, Retail Trades	6221.6	9.5
Accommodation and Restaurants	1119.9	6.2
Finance	4695.4	10.2
Real Estate	3816.7	2.3
Other	11631.1	8.8
Growth in Quarter Relative to Prior Quarter	∆% on Prior Quarter	∆% Annual Equivalent
2014
IVQ2014	1.5	6.1
IIIQ2014	1.9	7.8
IIQ2014	1.9	7.8
IQ2014	1.6	6.6
2013
IVQ2013	1.8	7.4
IIIQ2013	2.3	9.5
IIQ2013	1.8	7.4
IQ2013	1.7	7.0
2012
IVQ2012	1.9	7.8
IIIQ2012	2.0	8.2
IIQ2012	2.1	8.7
IQ2012	1.4	5.7
2011
IVQ2011	1.8	7.4
IIIQ2011	2.2	9.1
IIQ2011	2.5	10.4
IQ2011	2.3	9.5

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Growth of China’s GDP in IVQ2014 relative to the same period in 2013 was 7.3 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDPA. Secondary industry accounts for 42.6 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2014. In cumulative IVQ2014, industry accounts for 35.8 percent of GDP and construction for 7.0 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 48.2 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2014 and primary industry for 9.2 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is changing to lower growth rates while improving living standards. GDP growth decelerated from 12.1 percent in IQ2010 and 11.2 percent in IIQ2010 to 7.8 percent in IQ2013, 7.5 percent in IIQ2013 and 7.9 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP grew 7.6 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to IIIQ2013, which is equivalent to 7.4 percent per year. GDP grew 7.4 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.6 percent in IQ2014 that is equivalent to 6.6 percent per year. GP grew 7.5 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.9 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is equivalent 7.8 percent. In IIIQ2014, GDP grew 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier and 1.9 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is 7.8 percent in annual equivalent. GDP grew 1.5 percent in IVQ2014, which is 6.1 percent in annual equivalent and 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier.

Table VC-GDPA, China, Growth Rate of GDP, ∆% Relative to a Year Earlier and ∆% Relative to Prior Quarter

	IQ 2013	IIQ 2013	IIIQ 2013	IVQ 2013	IQ 2014	IIQ 2014	IIIQ 2014	IVQ 2014
GDP	7.8	7.5	7.9	7.6	7.4	7.5	7.3	7.3
Primary Industry	3.4	3.0	3.4	4.0	3.5	3.9	4.2	4.1
Secondary Industry	7.8	7.6	7.8	7.8	7.3	7.4	7.4	7.3
Tertiary Industry	8.3	8.3	8.4	8.3	7.1	8.0	7.9	8.1
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.7	1.8	2.3	1.8	1.6	1.9	1.9	1.5
	IQ 2011	IIQ 2011	IIIQ 2011	IVQ 2011	IQ  2012	IIQ 2012	IIIQ 2012	IVQ 2012
GDP	9.7	9.5	9.1	8.9	8.1	7.6	7.4	7.9
Primary Industry	3.5	3.2	3.8	4.5	3.8	4.3	4.2	4.5
Secondary Industry	11.1	11.0	10.8	10.6	9.1	8.3	8.1	8.1
Tertiary Industry	9.1	9.2	9.0	8.9	7.5	7.7	7.9	8.1
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	2.3	2.5	2.2	1.8	1.4	2.1	2.0	1.9
	IQ 2010	IIQ 2010	IIIQ 2010	IVQ 2010
GDP	12.1	11.2	10.7	12.1
Primary Industry	3.8	3.6	4.0	3.8
Secondary Industry	14.5	13.3	12.6	14.5
Tertiary Industry	10.5	9.9	9.7	10.5

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart VC-GDP of the National Bureau of Statistics of China provides annual value and growth rates of GDP. China’s GDP growth in 2013 is still high at 7.7 percent but at the lowest rhythm in five years.

Chart VC-GDP, China, Gross Domestic Product, Million Yuan and ∆%, 2009-2013

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart VC-FXR provides China’s foreign exchange reserves. FX reserves grew from $2399.2 billion in 2009 to $3821.3 billion in 2013 driven by high growth of China’s trade surplus.

Chart VC-FXR, China, Foreign Exchange Reserves, 2009-2013

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Chart VC-Trade provides China’s imports and exports. Exports exceeded imports with resulting large trade balance surpluses that increased foreign exchange reserves.

Chart VC-Trade, China, Imports and Exports of Goods, 2009-2013, $100 Million US Dollars

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) compiled by Markit (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/36e42fb4a12a4d8f94bf449e38ef2b2e) is weakening. The overall Flash HSBC China Manufacturing PMI^™ decreased from 50.7 in Feb to 49.2 in Mar, while the Flash HSBC China Manufacturing Output Index decreased from 51.7 in Feb to 50.8 in Mar, indicating moderate growth. Exports orders indicate contraction. Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds moderate deterioration in manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/36e42fb4a12a4d8f94bf449e38ef2b2e). The HSBC China Services PMI^™, compiled by Markit, shows the HSBC Composite Output, combining manufacturing and services, unchanged from 51.8 in Feb to 51.8 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/9a0545fb09ca43af984c9e78444837d5). Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds modest output growth (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/9a0545fb09ca43af984c9e78444837d5). The HSBC China Services Business Activity index increased from 52.0 in Feb to 52.3 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/9a0545fb09ca43af984c9e78444837d5). Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds that the services PMI shows sustained activity at modest pace (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/9a0545fb09ca43af984c9e78444837d5). The HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™), compiled by Markit, decreased to 49.6 in Mar from 50.7 in Feb, indicating moderate deterioration in manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/2c31cfa7df914ac09be4c0b5d1da2988). New export orders declined modestly. Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds weak internal and external demand (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/2c31cfa7df914ac09be4c0b5d1da2988). Table CNY provides the country data table for China.

Table CNY, China, Economic Indicators

Price Indexes for Industry	Feb 12-month ∆%: minus 4.8 Feb month ∆%: -0.7 Blog 3/15/15
Consumer Price Index	Feb 12-month ∆%: 1.4 Feb month ∆%: 1.2 Blog 3/15/15
Value Added of Industry	Feb month ∆%: 0.45 Jan-Feb 2015/Jan-Feb 2014 ∆%: 6.8 Blog 3/15/15
GDP Growth Rate	Year IVQ2014 ∆%: 7.3 First Four Quarters 2014 ∆%: 7.4 Quarter IIIQ2014 AE ∆%: 6.1 Blog 1/25/15
Investment in Fixed Assets	Total Jan-Feb 2015 ∆%: 13.9 Real estate development: 10.4 Blog 3/15/15
Retail Sales	Feb month ∆%: 1.01 Jan-Feb 12 month ∆%: NA Jan-Feb ∆%: 0.03 Blog 3/15/15
Trade Balance	Feb balance $60.62 billion Exports 12M ∆% 48.3 Imports 12M ∆% -20.5 Cumulative Feb 2015: $120.5 billion Blog 3/15/15

Links to blog comments in Table CNY:

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

1/25/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/01/competitive-currency-conflicts-world.html

VD Euro Area. Table VD-EUR provides yearly growth rates of the combined GDP of the members of the European Monetary Union (EMU) or euro area since 1999. Growth was very strong at 3.3 percent in 2006 and 3.1 percent in 2007. The global recession had strong impact with growth of only 0.5 percent in 2008 and decline of 4.5 percent in 2009. Recovery was at lower growth rates of 2.0 percent in 2010 and 1.6 percent in 2011. EUROSTAT estimates growth of GDP of the euro area of minus 0.8 percent in 2012 and minus 0.4 percent in 2013 but 0.9 percent in 2014.

Table VD-EUR, Euro Area, Yearly Percentage Change of Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, Unemployment and GDP ∆%

Year	HICP ∆%	Unemployment %	GDP ∆%
1999	1.2	9.7	2.9
2000	2.2	8.8	3.8
2001	2.4	8.3	2.1
2002	2.3	8.6	0.9
2003	2.1	9.1	0.7
2004	2.2	9.3	2.2
2005	2.2	9.1	1.7
2006	2.2	8.4	3.3
2007	2.2	7.5	3.1
2008	3.3	7.6	0.5
2009	0.3	9.6	-4.5
2010	1.6	10.2	2.0
2011	2.7	10.2	1.6
2012	2.5	11.4	-0.8
2013	1.3	12.0	-0.4
2014	0.4	11.6	0.9

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

The GDP of the euro area in 2013 in current US dollars in the dataset of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is $12,753.7 billion or 17.1 percent of world GDP of $74,699.3 billion (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/weodata/weoselgr.aspx). The sum of the GDP of France $2807.3 billion with the GDP of Germany of $3635.9 billion, Italy of $2071.9 billion and Spain $1358.7 billion is $9873.8 billion or 77.4 percent of total euro area GDP and 13.2 percent of World GDP. The four largest economies account for slightly more than three quarters of economic activity of the euro area. Table VD-EUR1 is constructed with the dataset of EUROSTAT, providing growth rates of the euro area as a whole and of the largest four economies of Germany, France, Italy and Spain annually from 1996 to 2014. The impact of the global recession on the overall euro area economy and on the four largest economies was quite strong. There was sharp contraction in 2009 and growth rates have not rebounded to earlier growth with exception of Germany in 2010 and 2011.

Table VD-EUR1, Euro Area, Real GDP Growth Rate, ∆%

	Euro Area	Germany	France	Italy	Spain
2014	0.9	1.6	0.4	-0.4	1.4
2013	-0.4	0.1	0.3	-1.7	-1.2
2012	-0.8	0.4	0.3	-2.8	-2.1
2011	1.6	3.6	2.1	0.6	-0.6
2010	2.0	4.1	2.0	1.7	0.0
2009	-4.5	-5.6	-2.9	-5.5	-3.6
2008	0.5	1.1	0.2	-1.0	1.1
2007	3.1	3.3	2.4	1.5	3.8
2006	3.3	3.7	2.4	2.0	4.2
2005	1.7	0.7	1.6	0.9	3.7
2004	2.2	1.2	2.8	1.6	3.2
2003	0.7	-0.7	0.8	0.2	3.2
2002	0.9	0.0	1.1	0.3	2.9
2001	2.1	1.7	2.0	1.8	4.0
2000	3.8	3.0	3.9	3.7	5.3
1999	2.9	2.0	3.4	1.6	4.5
1998	2.9	2.0	3.6	1.4	4.3
1997	2.6	1.8	2.3	1.8	3.7
1996	1.6	0.8	1.4	1.3	2.7

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

The Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index of the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI^®, combining activity in manufacturing and services, increased from 53.3 in Feb to 54.1 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f969e097835f4ead892757c62f709814). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds that the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI index suggests GDP growth at around 0.3 percent in IQ2015 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f969e097835f4ead892757c62f709814). The Markit Eurozone PMI^® Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing activity with close association with GDP increased from 52.6 in Jan to 53.3 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e1972f0591de4394aa4e977fcad4d0a1). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds slowing growth of GDP at around 0.3 percent in IQ2015 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e1972f0591de4394aa4e977fcad4d0a1). The Markit Eurozone Services Business Activity Index increased from 52.7 in Jan to 53.7 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e1972f0591de4394aa4e977fcad4d0a1). The Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI^® increased from 51.0 in Feb to 51.9 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/75a84292bf394732a98dc4a53cad080c). New export orders increased. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds improvement of industrial growth in the euro area (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/75a84292bf394732a98dc4a53cad080c). Table EUR provides the data table for the euro area.

Table EUR, Euro Area Economic Indicators

GDP	IVQ2014 ∆% 0.3; IVQ2014/IVQ2013 ∆% 0.9 Blog 3/15/15
Unemployment	Feb 2015: 11.3 % unemployment rate; Feb 2015: 18.204 million unemployed Blog 4/5/15
HICP	Feb month ∆%: 0.6 12 months Feb ∆%: -0.3 Blog 3/22/15
Producer Prices	Euro Zone industrial producer prices Jan ∆%: -0.9 Jan 12-month ∆%: -3.4 Blog 3/8/15
Industrial Production	Dec month ∆%: 0.0; Dec 12 months ∆%: -0.2 Blog 2/15/15
Retail Sales	Jan month ∆%: 1.1 Jan 12 months ∆%: 3.7 Blog 3/15/15
Confidence and Economic Sentiment Indicator	Sentiment 103.9 Mar 2015 Consumer minus 3.7 Mar 2015 Blog 4/5/15
Trade	Jan-Dec 2014/Jan-Dec 2013 Exports ∆%: 2.2 Imports ∆%: 0.1 Jan 2015 12-month Exports ∆% -0.4 Imports ∆% minus 5.6 Blog 3/22/15

Links to blog comments in Table EUR:

3/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

3/8/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-competitive-devaluation-rules.html

EUROSTAT estimates the rate of unemployment in the euro area at 11.3 percent in

Feb 2015, as shown in Table VD-1. The number of unemployed in Feb 2015 was 18.204 million, which was 0.643 million lower than 18.847 million in Feb 2014. The rate of unemployment fell from 11.8 percent in Feb 2014 to 11.3 percent in Feb 2015.

Table VD-1, Euro Area, Unemployment Rate and Number of Unemployed, % and Millions, SA 

	Unemployment Rate %	Number Unemployed Millions
Feb 2015	11.3	18.204
Jan	11.4	18.253
Dec 2014	11.4	18.345
Nov	11.5	18.532
Oct	11.5	18.524
Sep	11.5	18.525
Aug	11.5	18.500
Jul	11.6	18.624
Jun	11.6	18.545
May	11.6	18.643
Apr	11.7	18.649
Mar	11.7	18.796
Feb	11.8	18.847
Jan	11.8	18.957
Dec 2013	11.9	18.964
Nov	11.9	19.061
Oct	11.9	19.127
Sep	12.0	19.259
Aug	12.0	19.260
Jul	12.0	19.258
Jun	12.1	19.316
May	12.1	19.332
Apr	12.1	19.316
Mar	12.0	19.269
Feb	12.0	19.269
Jan	12.0	19.220
Dec 2012	11.9	19.010
Nov	11.8	18.902
Oct	11.7	18.793
Sep	11.6	18.520
Aug	11.5	18.378
Jul	11.5	18.351
Jun	11.4	18.277
May	11.3	18.062
Apr	11.2	17.892
Mar	11.0	17.622
Feb	10.9	17.353
Jan	10.8	17.136
Dec 2011	10.7	17.089
Nov	10.6	16.959
Oct	10.5	16.641
Sep	10.4	16.494
Aug	10.2	16.255
Jul	10.1	16.098
Jun	10.0	15.888
May	10.0	15.825
Apr	9.9	15.685
Mar	10.0	15.771
Feb	10.0	15.796
Jan	10.1	16.910
Dec 2010	10.1	16.008

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

Table VD-2 shows the disparity in rates of unemployment in the euro area with 11.3 percent for the region as a whole and 18.204 million unemployed but 4.8 percent in Germany and 2.002 million unemployed. At the other extreme is Spain with rate of unemployment of 23.2 percent and 5.326 million unemployed. The rate of unemployment of the European Union in Feb 2015 is 9.8 percent with 23.887 million unemployed.

Table VD-2, Unemployed and Unemployment Rate in Countries and Regions, Millions and %

Feb 2015	Unemployment Rate %	Unemployed Millions
Euro Zone	11.3	18.204
Germany	4.8	2.002
France	10.6	3.116
Netherlands	7.1	0.633
Finland	9.1	0.244
Portugal	14.1	0.720
Ireland	9.9	0.211
Italy	12.7	3.240
Greece	26.0*	1.233*
Spain	23.2	5.326
Belgium	8.5	0.426
European Union	9.8	23.887

*Dec 2014

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

Chart VD-1 of EUROSTAT illustrates the wide difference in rates of unemployment in countries and regions.

Chart VD-1, Unemployment Rate in Various Countries and Regions

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

The Economic Sentiment Indicator of the European Economic Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs, provides correlation with the economic cycle since 1990, capturing all three recessions in the period and even the threat of recession from 1994 to 1995. The latest chart of this index accessible in the link in parenthesis shows trend of decline in 2011 and 2012 that has punctured the historical average of 100 and resumed downward trend in 2012 followed by recovery moving closer to the average (http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/index_en.htm). Table VD-1 provides the index increasing from 102.4 in Apr 2014 to 103.9 in Mar 2015. The index is above the minimum value of 69.3 reached in Mar 2009, close to the average of 100.

Table VD-1, Euro Area, Indicators of Confidence and Economic Sentiment SA

	ESI	IND	SERV	CON	RET	CONS
Historical Average	100.0	-6.8	9.0	-13.1	-8.8	-18.4
Maximum	118.8 05-00	7.9 04-07	35.4     08-98	2.4 05-00	5.3 12-10	6.0 02-90
Minimum	69.3 03-09	-38.1 03-09	-26.1 03-09	-34.4 03-09	-24.8 01-93	-46.0 09-93
Mar 2015	103.9	-2.9	6.0	-3.7	-0.7	-24.2
Feb	102.3	-4.6	5.3	-6.7	-1.3	-25.1
Jan	101.5	-4.5	5.3	-8.5	-2.7	-25.3
Dec 2014	100.9	-5.0	6.4	-10.9	-4.6	-24.2
Nov	100.8	-3.9	4.5	-11.6	-5.2	-25.0
Oct	100.9	-4.7	4.9	-11.1	-5.5	-23.6
Sep	100.2	-5.1	4.4	-11.4	-6.6	-26.9
Aug	100.9	-5.0	4.1	-10.1	-3.7	-27.8
Jul	102.5	-3.6	5.0	-8.3	-1.3	-27.3
Jun	102.4	-4.1	5.8	-7.5	-1.1	-31.0
May	102.9	-2.8	4.8	-7.1	-2.0	-29.0
Apr	102.4	-3.0	4.6	-8.6	-2.4	-29.6

ESI: Economic Sentiment Index; IND: Industry; SERV: Services; CON: Consumer; RET: Retail Trade; CONS: Construction

Source: European Commission Services

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/index_en.htm

VE Germany. Table VE-DE provides yearly growth rates of the German economy from 1971 to 2014, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked. Germany’s GDP fell 5.6 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.1 percent in 2008. Recovery has been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.1 percent in 2010, 3.6 percent in 2011 and 0.4 percent in 2012. Growth decelerated to 0.1 percent in 2013, increasing to 1.6 percent in 2014.

The Federal Statistical Agency of Germany analyzes the fall and recovery of the German economy (http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Content/Statistics/VolkswirtschaftlicheGesamtrechnungen/Inlandsprodukt/Aktuell,templateId=renderPrint.psml):

“The German economy again grew strongly in 2011. The price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.0% compared with the previous year. Accordingly, the catching-up process of the German economy continued during the second year after the economic crisis. In the course of 2011, the price-adjusted GDP again exceeded its pre-crisis level. The economic recovery occurred mainly in the first half of 2011. In 2009, Germany experienced the most serious post-war recession, when GDP suffered a historic decline of 5.1%. The year 2010 was characterised by a rapid economic recovery (+3.7%).”

Table VE-DE, Germany, GDP ∆% on Prior Year

	Price Adjusted Chain-Linked	Price- and Calendar-Adjusted Chain Linked
Average ∆% 1991-2014	1.3
Average ∆% 1991-1999	1.5
Average ∆% 2000-2007	1.4
Average ∆% 2003-2007	2.2
Average ∆% 2007-2014	0.7
Average ∆% 2009-2014	1.9
2014	1.6	1.6
2013	0.1	0.2
2012	0.4	0.6
2011	3.6	3.7
2010	4.1	3.9
2009	-5.6	-5.6
2008	1.1	0.8
2007	3.3	3.4
2006	3.7	3.9
2005	0.7	0.9
2004	1.2	0.7
2003	-0.7	-0.7
2002	0.0	0.0
2001	1.7	1.8
2000	3.0	3.2
1999	2.0	1.9
1998	2.0	1.7
1997	1.8	1.9
1996	0.8	0.8
1995	1.7	1.8
1994	2.5	2.5
1993	-1.0	-1.0
1992	1.9	1.5
1991	5.1	5.2
1990	5.3	5.5
1989	3.9	4.0
1988	3.7	3.4
1987	1.4	1.3
1986	2.3	2.3
1985	2.3	2.3
1984	2.8	2.9
1983	1.6	1.5
1982	-0.4	-0.5
1981	0.5	0.6
1980	1.4	1.3
1979	4.2	4.3
1978	3.0	3.1
1977	3.3	3.5
1976	4.9	4.5
1975	-0.9	-0.9
1974	0.9	1.0
1973	4.8	5.0
1972	4.3	4.3
1971	3.1	3.0
1970	NA	NA

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/NationalAccounts.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/DomesticProduct/CurrentRevision.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Methods/NationalAccountRevision/Revision2014_BackgroundPaper.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/02/PE14_048_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/08/PE13_278_811.html https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/11/PE13_381_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/01/PE14_016_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/DE/PresseService/Presse/Pressekonferenzen/2014/BIP2013/Pressebroschuere_BIP2013.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/05/PE14_167_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/09/PE14_306_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/11/PE14_401_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_048_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_61_811.html

The Flash Germany Composite Output Index of the Markit Flash Germany PMI^®, combining manufacturing and services, increased from 53.8 in Feb to 55.3 in Mar. The index of manufacturing output reached 55.4 in Mar, increasing from 52.2 in Feb, while the index of services increased to 55.3 in Mar from 54.7 in Feb. The overall Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI^® increased from 51.1 in Feb to 52.4 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/31e96b11367c46a5b06c787875c28812). New orders in manufacturing expanded. Oliver Kolodseike, Economist at Markit, finds improving GDP growth (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/31e96b11367c46a5b06c787875c28812). The Markit Germany Composite Output Index of the Markit Germany Services PMI^®, combining manufacturing and services with close association with Germany’s GDP, increased from 53.5 in Jan to 53.8 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/2b9e2def63d54291b499323d045c1e8d). Oliver Kolodseike, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds improvement in 2015 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/2b9e2def63d54291b499323d045c1e8d). The Germany Services Business Activity Index increased from 54.0 in Jan to 54.7 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/2b9e2def63d54291b499323d045c1e8d). The Markit/BME Germany Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®), showing close association with Germany’s manufacturing conditions, increased from 51.1 in Feb to 52.8 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d6d0b52b742b427f9b808a09fd84eb80). New export orders increased. Oliver Kolodseike, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds improvement of manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d6d0b52b742b427f9b808a09fd84eb80).Table DE provides the country data table for Germany.

Table DE, Germany, Economic Indicators

GDP	IVQ2014 0.7 ∆%; IV/Q2014/IVQ2013 ∆% 1.6 2014/2013: 1.6% GDP ∆% 1970-2014 Blog 8/26/12 5/27/12 11/25/12 2/24/13 5/19/13 5/26/13 8/18/13 8/25/13 11/17/13 11/24/13 1/26/14 2/16/14 3/2/14 5/18/14 5/25/14 8/17/14 9/7/14 11/16/14 11/30/14 2/15/15 3/1/15
Consumer Price Index	Feb month NSA ∆%: 0.9 Feb 12-month NSA ∆%: 0.1 Blog 3/15/15
Producer Price Index	Feb month ∆%: 0.1 NSA, 0.0 CSA 12-month NSA ∆%: -2.1 Blog 3/22/15
Industrial Production	MFG Jan month CSA ∆%: 0.0 12-month NSA: -2.5 Blog 3/15/15
Machine Orders	MFG Jan month ∆%: -3.9 Jan 12-month ∆%: -3.0 Blog 3/15/15
Retail Sales	Feb Month ∆% -0.5 12-Month ∆% 3.6 Blog 3/8/15
Employment Report	Unemployment Rate SA Jan 4.8% Blog 4/5/15
Trade Balance	Exports Jan 12-month NSA ∆%: -0.6 Imports Jan 12 months NSA ∆%: -2.3 Exports Jan month CSA ∆%: minus 2.1; Imports Jan month CSA minus 0.3 Blog 3/15/15

Links to blog comments in Table DE:

3/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

3/8/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-competitive-devaluation-rules.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

9/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/competitive-monetary-policy-and.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

1/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/01/capital-flows-exchange-rates-and.html

11/24/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html

8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

Germany’s labor market continues to show strength not found in most of the advanced economies, as shown in Table VE-1A. The number unemployed, not seasonally adjusted, decreased from 2.27 million in Feb 2014 to 2.21 million in Feb 2015, or while percent, while the unemployment rate decreased from 5.4 percent in Feb 2014 to 5.3 percent in Feb 2015. The number of persons in employment, not seasonally adjusted, increased from 39.52 million in Feb 2014 to 39.62 million in Feb 2015, or 0.3 percent, while the employment rate did not change from 64.5 percent in Feb 2014 to 64.5 percent in Feb 2015. The number unemployed, seasonally adjusted, decreased from 2.02 million in Jan 2015 to 2.00 million in Feb 2015, while the unemployment rate fell did not change 4.8 percent in Jan 2015 to 4.8 percent in Feb 2015. The number of persons in employment, seasonally adjusted, increased from 39.99 million in Jan 2015 to 40.04 million in Feb 2015, or change of 0.1 percent. The employment rate seasonally adjusted increased from 65.0 in Jan 2015 to 65.2 in Feb 2015.

Table VE-1A, Germany, Unemployment Labor Force Survey

	Feb 2015	Jan 2015	Feb 2014
NSA
Number Unemployed Millions	2.21 ∆% Feb 2015 /Jan 2015: 7.3 ∆% Feb 2015/Feb 2014: -2.6	2.06	2.27
% Rate Unemployed	5.3	4.9	5.4
Persons in Employment Millions	39.62 ∆% Feb 2015/ Jan 2015: -0.7 ∆% Feb 2015/Feb 2014: 0.3	39.89	39.52
Employment Rate	64.5	64.8	64.5
SA
Number Unemployed Millions	2.00 ∆% Feb 2015/ Jan  2015: -1.0 ∆% Feb 2015/Feb 2014: –5.7	2.02	2.12
% Rate Unemployed	4.8	4.8	5.1
Persons in Employment Millions	40.04 ∆% Feb 2015/ Jan 2015: 0.1 ∆% Feb 2015/Feb 2014: 1.1	39.99	39.61
Employment Rate	65.2	65.0	64.6

NSA: not seasonally adjusted; SA: seasonally adjusted

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/03/PE15_116_132.html

The unemployment rate in Germany as percent of the labor force in Table VE-2A stood at 6.5 percent in Sep, Oct and Nov 2012, increasing to 6.7 percent in Dec 2012, 7.4 percent in Jan 2013, 7.3 in Mar 2013 and 7.1 percent in Apr 2013. The unemployment rate fell to 6.8 percent in May 2013 and 6.6 percent in Jun 2013 and rose to 6.8 percent in Jul-Aug 2013. The rate fell to 6.6 percent in Sep 2013 and 6.5 percent in Oct 2013 and Nov 2013. The unemployment rate increased to 6.7 percent in Dec 2013 and 7.3 percent in Jan 2013. The unemployment rate reached 7.3 percent in Feb 2014 and 7.1 percent in Mar 2014. The unemployment rate fell to 6.8 percent in Apr 2014 and 6.6 percent in May 2014. The unemployment rate fell to 6.5 percent in Jun 2014, increasing to 6.6 percent in Jun 2014 and 6.7 percent in Aug 2014. The unemployment rate fell to 6.5 percent in Sep 2014 and 6.3 percent in Oct 2014 and Nov 2014. The unemployment rate increase to 6.4 percent in Dec 2014 and 7.0 percent in Jan 2015, falling to 6.9 percent in Feb 2015 and 6.8 percent in Mar 2015. The rate is much lower than 11.1 percent in 2005 and 9.6 percent in 2006.

Table VE-2A, Germany, Unemployment Rate in Percent of Labor Force

Mar 2015	6.8
Feb	6.9
Jan	7.0
Dec 2014	6.4
Nov	6.3
Oct	6.3
Sep	6.5
Aug	6.7
Jul	6.6
Jun	6.5
May	6.6
Apr	6.8
Mar	7.1
Feb	7.3
Jan	7.3
Dec 2013	6.7
Nov	6.5
Oct	6.5
Sep	6.6
Aug	6.8
Jul	6.8
Jun	6.6
May	6.8
Apr	7.1
Mar	7.3
Feb	7.4
Jan	7.4
Dec 2012	6.7
Nov	6.5
Oct	6.5
Sep	6.5
Aug	6.8
Jul	6.8
Jun	6.6
May	6.7
Apr	7.0
Mar	7.2
Feb	7.4
Jan	7.3
Dec 2011	6.6
Nov	6.4
Oct	6.5
Sep	6.6
Aug	7.0
Jul	7.0
Jun	6.9
May	7.0
Apr	7.3
Mar	7.6
Feb	7.9
Jan	7.9
Dec 2010	7.1
Dec 2009	7.8
Dec 2008	7.4
Dec 2007	8.1
Dec 2006	9.6
Dec 2005	11.1

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-1A of Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland, or Federal Statistical Office of Germany, shows the long-term decline of the rate of unemployment in Germany from more than 12 percent in early 2005 to 6.6 percent in Dec 2011, increasing to 6.7 percent in Dec 2012, 6.8 percent in Apr 2013 and 6.6 percent in May 2013. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 6.8 percent in Aug 2013, falling to 6.6 percent in Sep 2013 and 6.5 percent in Oct 2013. The rate remained at 6.5 percent in Nov 2013, increasing to 6.7 percent in Dec 2013 and 7.3 in Jan 2014. The rate remained at 7.3 percent in Feb 2014, declining to 7.1 percent in Mar 2014. The rate fell to 6.8 percent in Apr 2014, 6.6 percent in May 2014 and 6.5 percent in Jun 2014. The rate increased to 6.6 percent in Jul 2014 and 6.7 percent in Aug 2014, falling to 6.5 percent in Sep 2014. The rate fell to 6.3 percent in Oct 2014 and 6.3 percent in Nov 2014, increasing to 6.4 percent in Dec 2014. The rate increased to 7.0 percent in Jan 2015, falling to 6.9 percent in Feb 2015 and 6.8 percent in Mar 2015.

Chart VE-1A, Germany, Unemployment Rate, Unadjusted, Percent

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Retail sales in Germany adjusted for inflation are provided in Table VE-3. There have been sharp fluctuations in monthly and 12-month percentage changes. In Feb 2015, retail sales decreased 0.5 percent and increased 3.6 percent in 12 months. Retail sales increased 2.3 percent in Jan 2015 and increased 5.0 percent in 12 months.

Table VE-3, Retail Sales in Germany Adjusted for Inflation

	12-Month ∆% NSA	Month ∆% SA and Calendar Adjusted
Feb 2015	3.6	-0.5
Jan	5.0	2.3
Dec 2014	5.2	1.1
Nov	-1.3	0.3
Oct	2.6	2.0
Sep	2.9	-1.7
Aug	-0.9	0.7
Jul	1.3	-0.7
Jun	0.2	1.3
May	2.4	-0.2
Apr	3.7	-0.6
Mar	-0.6	-0.3
Feb	2.4	0.9
Jan	1.1	2.6
Dec 2013	0.2	-2.5
Nov	1.6	1.6
Oct	-0.2	-0.9
Sep	0.2	0.4
Aug	0.4	-0.3
Jul	3.3	0.6
Jun	-2.9	-1.1
May	0.2	0.8
Apr	2.5	0.2
Mar	-2.9	-0.1
Feb	-3.3	-0.1
Jan	2.2	2.0
Dec 2012	-3.1	-1.6
Nov	0.5	0.1
Oct	1.5	-0.5
Sep	-3.1	0.2
Aug	0.0	-0.2
Jul	-1.0	-0.7
Jun	4.6	1.0
May	-0.7	-0.4
Apr	-4.7	-0.6
Mar	4.2	1.0
Feb	2.5	1.9
Jan	2.0	-2.6
Dec 2011	0.8	1.0
Nov	0.9	-1.3
Oct	-0.4	0.5
Sep	1.2	0.4
Aug	3.4	-1.3
Jul	-2.4	1.3
Jun	-2.0	2.5
May	4.5	-2.7
Apr	4.8	1.4
Mar	-2.9	-2.4
Feb	3.0	2.2
Jan	3.3	-0.1
Dec 2010	-0.2	0.4
Dec 2009	-2.2
Dec 2008	3.4
Dec 2007	-6.2
Dec 2006	1.3

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-2 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland, Federal Statistical Office of Germany, shows retail sales at constant prices from 2010 to 2015. There appear to be fluctuations without trend. The final segment points to increase in trend.

Chart VE-2, Germany, Turnover in Retail Trade at Constant Prices 2010=100

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis), Federal Statistical Office of Germany

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-2 of the Federal Statistical Office of Germany provides retail sales at current prices. The final segment suggests a trend of increase.

Chart VE-3, Germany, Turnover in Retail Sales at Current Prices, Original Values, 2010=100

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis), Federal Statistical Office of Germany

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

VF France. Table VF-FR provides growth rates of GDP of France with the estimates of Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE). The long-term rate of GDP growth of France from IVQ1949 to IVQ2014 is quite high at 3.2 percent. France’s growth rates were quite high in the four decades of the 1950s, 1960, 1970s and 1980s with an average growth rate of 4.0 percent compounding the average rates in the decades and discounting to one decade. The growth impulse diminished with 2.0 percent in the 1990s and 1.8 percent from 2000 to 2007. The average growth rate from 2000 to 2014, using fourth quarter data, is 1.0 percent because of the sharp impact of the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. Cobet and Wilson (2002) provide estimates of output per hour and unit labor costs in national currency and US dollars for the US, Japan and Germany from 1950 to 2000 (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 137-44). The average yearly rate of productivity change from 1950 to 2000 was 2.9 percent in the US, 6.3 percent for Japan and 4.7 percent for Germany while unit labor costs in USD increased at 2.6 percent in the US, 4.7 percent in Japan and 4.3 percent in Germany. From 1995 to 2000, output per hour increased at the average yearly rate of 4.6 percent in the US, 3.9 percent in Japan and 2.6 percent in Germany while unit labor costs in US fell at minus 0.7 percent in the US, 4.3 percent in Japan and 7.5 percent in Germany. There was increase in productivity growth in the G7 in Japan and France in the second half of the 1990s but significantly lower than the acceleration of 1.3 percentage points per year in the US. Lucas (2011May) compares growth of the G7 economies (US, UK, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Canada) and Spain, finding that catch-up growth with earlier rates for the US and UK stalled in the 1970s.

Table VF-FR, France, Average Growth Rates of GDP Fourth Quarter, 1949-2014

Period	Average ∆%
1949-2014	3.2
2007-2014	0.3
2000-2014	1.0
2000-2013	1.1
2000-2007	1.8
1990-1999	2.0
1980-1989	2.6
1970-1979	3.7
1960-1969	5.7
1950-1959	4.2

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=28&date=20150326

The Markit Flash France Composite Output Index decreased from 52.2 in Feb to 51.7 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/aa2d103513934a7682046ad5582b152b). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds possible improvement in IQ2015 GDP (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/aa2d103513934a7682046ad5582b152b). The Markit France Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing with close association with French GDP, increased from 49.3 in Jan to 52.2 in Feb, indicating strong improvement (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/aa544adb5bb042b6999fbd0d92bf7a2f). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the France Services PMI^®, finds strengthening growth of services (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/aa544adb5bb042b6999fbd0d92bf7a2f). The Markit France Services Activity index increased from 49.4 in Jan to 53.4 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/aa544adb5bb042b6999fbd0d92bf7a2f). The Markit France Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^® increased to 48.8 in Mar from 47.6 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c04a6a98761641fa94caae56d7a4b327). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the France Manufacturing PMI^®, finds slower deterioration in manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c04a6a98761641fa94caae56d7a4b327). Table FR provides the country data table for France.

Table FR, France, Economic Indicators

CPI	Feb month ∆% 0.7 12 months ∆%: -0.3 3/15/15
PPI	Feb month ∆%: 0.8 Feb 12 months ∆%: -2.5 Blog 4/5/15
GDP Growth	IVQ2014/IIIQ2014 ∆%: 0.1 IVQ2014/IVQ2013 ∆%: 0.2 Blog 3/31/13 5/19/12 6/30/13 9/29/13 11/17/13 12/29/13 2/16/14 4/6/14 5/18/14 6/29/14 8/17/14 9/28/14 11/16/14 12/28/14 2/15/15 3/29/15
Industrial Production	Jan ∆%: Manufacturing -0.1 12-Month ∆%: Manufacturing -0.5 Blog 3/22/15
Consumer Spending	Manufactured Goods Feb ∆%: -0.1 Feb 12-Month Manufactured Goods ∆%: 2.4 Blog 4/5/15
Employment	Unemployment Rate: IVQ2014 10.0% Blog 3/15/15
Trade Balance	Jan Exports ∆%: month -2.5, 12 months 1.3 Jan Imports ∆%: month -1.3, 12 months -3.1 Blog 3/15/15
Confidence Indicators	Historical average 100 Mar Mfg Business Climate 99.0 Blog 3/29/15

Links to blog comments in Table FR:

3/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html

3/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

9/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

12/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/collapse-of-united-states-dynamism-of.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

6/30/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/tapering-quantitative-easing-policy-and.html

5/19/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/word-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

The monthly report of household expenditures in consumption goods for France is in Table VF-1. Total consumption increased 0.1 percent in Feb 2015 after increasing 0.7 percent in Jan 2015 and increasing 1.6 percent in Dec 2014. Consumption of manufactured products decreased 0.1 percent in Feb 2015 after increasing 0.3 percent in Jan 2015 and increasing 1.3 percent in Dec 2014. Total consumption increased 3.0 percent in Feb 2015 relative to Feb 2014 and consumption of manufactured goods increased 2.4 percent in Feb 2015 relative to Feb 2014. Consumption of energy increased 0.8 percent in Feb 2015 and increased 7.9 percent in 12 months. Internal demand is weak throughout most advanced economies.

Table VF-1, France, Household Expenditures in Consumption Goods, Month ∆% Chained Billion Euros Trading-Days SA

	Total	Food	Eng. Goods	Energy	Mfg Goods
Feb 2015	0.1	-0.3	0.1	0.8	-0.1
Feb 2015/Feb 2014	3.0	1.4	2.4	7.9	2.4
Jan 2015	0.7	-0.1	1.5	0.6	0.3
Dec 2014	1.6	0.7	0.3	6.9	1.3
Nov	0.2	-0.1	0.6	-0.1	-0.1
Oct	-0.4	-0.1	1.0	-4.5	0.2
Sep	-0.5	0.6	-1.4	-0.6	-0.4
Aug	0.8	0.9	0.4	1.3	0.9
Jul	-0.8	-1.5	-0.1	-0.9	-0.9
Jun	0.9	1.2	1.0	0.2	1.3
May	0.1	-1.2	-0.4	3.8	-0.6
Apr	-0.1	1.1	-0.4	-2.2	-0.1
Mar	0.5	0.4	-0.2	2.6	0.7
Feb	-0.4	-0.5	0.0	-1.1	-0.4
Jan	-1.1	-0.6	-0.1	-4.8	-0.8
Dec 2013	-0.2	0.1	0.8	-3.3	0.6
Nov	1.4	-0.5	0.5	7.3	0.2
Oct	0.0	1.6	0.0	-3.4	0.6
Sep	0.3	-0.4	1.1	-0.4	0.2
Aug	-0.6	-0.3	-0.2	-1.9	-0.5
Jul	0.7	0.8	0.4	1.5	1.0
Jun	-1.5	-1.1	0.3	-6.1	-1.2
May	0.8	2.2	0.0	0.0	1.2
Apr	-0.6	-3.0	0.7	1.2	-0.5
Mar	0.8	1.5	-0.6	2.6	0.5
Feb	-0.2	0.0	-1.2	1.9	-0.7
Jan	0.8	0.9	-0.1	2.8	0.3
Dec 2012	-0.6	-0.1	0.6	-4.6	-0.2
Nov	-0.3	-0.5	-1.1	1.7	-0.7
Oct	0.2	-0.5	0.1	1.7	0.2
Sep	0.1	-0.5	0.5	0.4	0.1
Aug	-0.8	0.3	-1.0	-2.6	-1.0
Jul	0.3	-0.2	0.7	0.5	0.4
Jun	0.2	1.0	-0.7	0.7	0.1
May	0.1	-0.1	1.9	-3.8	1.2
Apr	0.1	0.1	-3.6	10.2	-1.8
Mar	-2.9	-1.9	1.4	-14.5	-0.7
Feb	2.4	1.4	-0.9	12.7	0.6
Jan	1.0	1.0	0.2	3.1	0.8
Dec 2011	-0.9	-1.1	-0.7	-1.3	-1.0
Nov	-0.2	0.3	0.2	-2.2	-0.1
Oct	-0.2	-0.8	0.4	-0.4	-0.1
Sep	-0.3	0.6	-0.1	-2.9	-0.3
Aug	0.7	0.1	0.5	2.6	0.9
Jul	-0.2	0.2	-0.6	0.4	-0.2
Jun	0.6	-0.2	0.3	3.0	0.4
May	0.0	-0.5	-0.5	2.6	-0.7
Apr	-2.3	0.3	-3.2	-5.8	-1.9
Mar	-0.9	-0.4	-1.0	-1.7	-1.0
Feb	0.6	0.7	1.5	-2.1	1.2
Jan	-0.3	-0.7	1.6	-4.5	0.7
Dec 2010	0.6	0.6	-0.6	3.8	0.0

Eng. Goods: Engineered Goods

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=19&date=20150331

Chart VF-1 of the Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques of France provides consumption of manufactured goods in France in volumes of chained 2005 billion euro from Jan 1980 to Feb 2015. Consumption of manufactured goods increased above the level before the global recession but shows declining trend in recent months with possible stabilization. There is new trend of increase in the final segment.

Chart VF-1, France, Consumption of Manufactured Goods, Volume Chained 2005 Billion, Seasonally and Working Day Adjusted, Jan 1980 to Feb 2015

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=19&date=20150331

Chart VF-2 of Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques of France provides growth of total consumption in France. There is downward trend of monthly consumption with fluctuations and stability in the final segment followed by another drop in Jan-Feb 2013 and increase in Mar 2013 but renewed decrease in Apr 2013. Consumption rose again in May 2013 and fell in Jun 2013. Consumption increased in Jul 2013 and fell in Aug-Oct 2013. Consumption rose in Nov 2013 driven by electricity and fell marginally in Dec 2013. Consumption fell in Jan-Feb 2014 and rebounded in Mar 2014 with decline in Apr 2014. Consumption grew in May-Jun 2014, falling in Jul 2014 and rebounding in Aug 2014. Consumption decreased in Sep-Oct 2014 and rebounded in Nov-Dec 2014 and into Jan-Feb 2015.

Chart VF-2, France, Total Consumption of Goods, Billions of Euros Trading and Seasonally Adjusted and Quarterly ∆%

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=19&date=20150331

VG Italy. Table VG-IT provides percentage changes in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier of Italy’s expenditure components in chained volume measures. GDP has been declining at sharper rates from minus 1.0 percent in IVQ2011 to minus 2.7 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.6 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.0 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.4 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.8 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.1 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and decreased 0.3 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and fell 0.5 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. The aggregate demand components of consumption and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) have been declining at faster rates. The rates of decline of GDP, consumption and GFCF were somewhat milder in IIIQ2013 and IVQ2013 than in IQ2013 and the final three quarters of 2012. Consumption fell 0.4 percent in IQ2014 and GFCF fell 2.5 percent. In IIQ2014, consumption decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier and GFCF fell 3.3 percent. GDP fell 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier while consumption increased 0.2 percent and GFCF fell 4.2 percent. GDP fell 0.5 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier while consumption increased 0.3 percent and GFCF fell 3.0 percent.

Table VG-IT, Italy, GDP and Expenditure Components, Chained Volume Measures, Quarter ∆% on Same Quarter Year Earlier

	GDP	Imports	Consumption	GFCF	Exports
2014
IVQ	-0.5	2.0	0.3	-3.0	3.8
IIIQ	-0.5	1.3	0.2	-4.2	1.7
IIQ	-0.3	2.8	-0.1	-3.3	2.6
IQ	-0.1	0.4	-0.4	-2.5	3.8
2013
IVQ	-0.8	0.8	-1.2	-4.1	1.2
IIIQ	-1.4	-1.5	-2.1	-4.2	0.0
IIQ	-2.0	-3.7	-2.5	-6.4	0.2
IQ	-2.6	-4.3	-2.7	-8.4	1.5
2012
IVQ	-2.7	-7.5	-3.3	-9.6	1.7
IIIQ	-3.1	-8.2	-3.5	-10.2	3.0
IIQ	-3.1	-8.9	-3.5	-9.6	1.6
IQ	-2.3	-8.7	-3.1	-8.1	1.8
2011
IVQ	-1.0	-7.1	-2.0	-4.5	2.5
IIIQ	0.4	0.3	-0.8	-2.3	4.6
IIQ	1.4	3.8	0.3	-0.6	7.5
IQ	2.0	8.4	0.7	0.7	10.2
2010
IVQ	2.3	14.6	1.3	0.9	13.0
IIIQ	1.8	12.9	1.1	0.6	12.4
IIQ	1.9	14.2	1.0	-0.4	13.2
IQ	0.7	6.7	0.9	-3.3	6.8
2009
IVQ	-3.5	-6.3	0.2	-8.2	-9.3
IIIQ	-5.0	-12.2	-0.8	-12.6	-16.4
IIQ	-6.6	-17.9	-1.4	-13.6	-21.4
IQ	-6.9	-17.2	-1.8	-12.4	-22.8
2008
IVQ	-3.0	-8.2	-0.9	-8.3	-10.3
IIIQ	-1.9	-5.0	-0.8	-4.5	-3.9
IIQ	-0.2	-0.1	-0.3	-1.5	0.4
IQ	0.5	1.7	0.1	-1.0	2.9

GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/151830

The Markit/ADACI Business Activity Index decreased from 51.2 in Jan to 50.0 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b9a27bc11e08444fbd9ee7806f41ef6a). Phil Smith, Economist at Markit and author of the Italy Services PMI^®, finds weak demand in stabilizing economy (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b9a27bc11e08444fbd9ee7806f41ef6a). The Markit/ADACI Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®), increased from 51.9 in Feb to 53.3 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f6e9a5d5010446dc928834dcb0c58152). New export orders continued to increase. Phil Smith, Economist at Markit and author of the Italian Manufacturing PMI^®, finds strengthening conditions in manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f6e9a5d5010446dc928834dcb0c58152). Table IT provides the country data table for Italy.

Table IT, Italy, Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index	Mar month ∆%: 0.1 Mar 12-month ∆%: -0.1 Blog 4/5/15
Producer Price Index	Feb month ∆%: -0.5 Feb 12-month ∆%: -3.3 Blog 4/5/15
GDP Growth	IVQ2014/IIIQ2014 SA ∆%: 0.0 IVQ2014/IVQ2013 NSA ∆%: minus 0.5 Blog 3/17/13 6/16/13 8/11/13 9/15/13 11/17/13 12/15/13 2/16/14 3/16/14 5/18/14 6/15/14 8/10/14 8/31/14 10/19/14 11/16/14 12/7/14 2/15/15 3/15/15
Labor Report	Feb 2015 Participation rate 64.0% Employment ratio 55.7% Unemployment rate 12.7% Youth Unemployment 42.6% Blog 4/5/15
Industrial Production	Jan month ∆%: -0.7 12 months CA ∆%: minus 2.2 Blog 3/22/15
Retail Sales	Jan month ∆%: 0.1 Jan 12-month ∆%: 1.7 Blog 3/29/15
Business Confidence	Mfg Mar 103.7, Nov 99.5 Construction Mar 116.0, Nov 103.7 Blog 4/5/15
Trade Balance	Balance Jan SA €3917 million versus Dec €5076 Exports Jan month SA ∆%: minus 2.5; Imports month ∆%: 1.0 Exports 12 months Jan NSA ∆%: minus 3.2 Imports 12 months NSA ∆%: minus 3.2 Blog 3/22/15

Links to blog comments in Table IT:

3/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html

3/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

12/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/financial-risks-twenty-six-million.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

10/19/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/imf-view-squeeze-of-economic-activity.html

8/31/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitical-and-financial-risks.html

8/10/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/volatility-of-valuations-of-risk_10.html

6/15/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financialgeopolitical-risks-recovery.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

8/11/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/recovery-without-hiring-loss-of-full.html

6/16/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/recovery-without-hiring-seven-million.html

3/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

Data on Italy’s labor market since 2004 are provided in Table VG-1. The unemployment rate has risen from 6.2 percent in Dec 2006 to 12.7 percent in Dec 2015. The rate of youth unemployment for ages 15 to 24 years increased from 21.0 percent in Dec 2006 to 42.6 percent in Feb 2015. As in other advanced economies, unemployment has reached high levels.

Table VG-1, Italy, Labor Report

	Participation Rate %	Employment Ratio %	Unemployment Rate %	Unemployment Rate 15-24 Years %
Feb 2015	64.0	55.7	12.7	42.6
Jan	64.0	55.8	12.6	41.2
Dec 2014	64.0	55.7	12.7	41.3
Nov	64.3	55.6	13.2	42.9
Oct	64.3	55.8	13.0	42.6
Sep	64.3	55.9	12.9	41.7
Aug	63.9	55.6	12.7	43.5
Jul	64.0	55.7	12.8	43.0
Jun	63.8	55.8	12.4	42.6
May	63.8	55.6	12.5	42.4
Apr	63.5	55.5	12.4	42.9
Mar	63.7	55.6	12.5	43.7
Feb	63.6	55.5	12.5	42.5
Jan	63.6	55.5	12.6	43.3
Dec 2013	63.6	55.5	12.5	42.5
Nov	63.5	55.5	12.4	42.0
Oct	63.3	55.4	12.3	42.1
Sep	63.3	55.3	12.4	41.5
Aug	63.5	55.6	12.3	40.8
Jul	63.2	55.5	12.0	39.7
Jun	63.3	55.5	12.2	38.5
May	63.5	55.6	12.2	37.8
Apr	63.4	55.7	12.0	38.9
Mar	63.3	55.6	11.9	39.2
Feb	63.5	55.9	11.9	38.8
Jan	63.5	55.9	11.8	38.7
Dec 2012	63.5	56.2	11.4	38.2
Nov	63.5	56.3	11.2	38.6
Oct	63.7	56.4	11.2	36.4
Sep	63.5	56.5	10.8	35.7
Aug	63.4	56.5	10.6	34.4
Jul	63.6	56.6	10.8	35.9
Jun	63.7	56.7	10.8	34.6
May	63.6	56.9	10.4	35.9
Apr	63.6	56.8	10.6	34.7
Mar	63.4	56.7	10.4	35.7
Feb	63.1	56.8	9.9	33.7
Jan	62.9	56.8	9.4	31.5
Dec 2011	62.8	56.7	9.6	31.5
Nov	62.5	56.6	9.4	31.6
Oct	62.3	56.8	8.7	29.0
Sep	62.1	56.5	8.9	30.1
Aug	62.2	56.9	8.5	29.0
Jul	62.0	56.8	8.3	29.3
Jun	61.8	56.8	8.0	28.8
May	61.9	56.8	8.1	28.8
Apr	61.6	56.8	7.7	27.7
Mar	62.0	57.1	7.8	27.3
Feb	61.7	56.8	7.8	26.4
Jan	61.7	56.6	8.0	28.8
Dec 2010	61.9	56.8	8.1	28.4
Dec 2009	62.2	56.9	8.4	26.6
Dec 2008	62.4	58.1	6.8	23.2
Dec 2007	63.0	58.8	6.5	22.3
Dec 2006	62.4	58.5	6.2	21.0
Dec 2005	62.6	57.8	7.6	23.2
Dec 2004	62.5	57.5	7.8	23.8

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/154260

Table VG-2 provides more detail on the labor report for Italy in Feb 2015. The level of employment decreased 0.2 from Jan 2015 to Feb 2015 and increased 93,000 from Feb 2014 to Feb 2015. Unemployment increased 23,000 in Feb 2015 and increased 67,000 from a year earlier. A dramatic aspect found in most advanced economies is the high rate of unemployment of youth at 42.6 percent in Feb 2015 for ages 15 to 24 years.

Table VG-2, Italy, Labor Report, NSA

Feb 2015	1000s	Change from Prior Month 1000s	∆% from Prior Month	Change from Prior Year 1000s	∆% from Prior Year
EMP	22,270	-44	-0.2	93	0.4
UNE	3,240	23	0.7	67	2.1
INA   15-64	14,079	9	0.1	-204	-1.4
EMP 15-24	868	-34	-3.8	-40	-4.4
UNE 15-24	644	11	1.7	-27	-4.0
INA 15-24	4,441	20	0.5	35	0.8
EMP %	55.7		-0.1		0.0
UNE %	12.7		0.1		-0.4
Youth UNE %  15-24	42.6		1.3		-0.8
INA % 15-64	36.0		0.0		0.3

Notes: EMP: Employed; UNE: Unemployed; INA 15-64: Inactive aged 15 to 64; EMP %: Employment Rate; UNE %: Unemployment Rate; Youth UNE % 15-24: Youth Unemployment Rate aged 15 to 24; INA % 15-64: Inactive Rate aged 15 to 64.

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/154260

Chart VG-1 provides the rate of unemployment in Italy that increased from 12.5 percent in Feb 2014 to 12.7 percent in Feb 2015.

Chart VG-1, Italy, Rate of Unemployment, %

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/en/

Chart VG-2 of the Istituto Nazionale di Statistica provides the total number of employed persons in Italy. The level of employment increased from 22.177 million in Feb 2014 to 22.270 million in Feb 2015.

Chart VG-2, Italy, Total Number of Employed Persons, Millions, SA

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/en/

The business confidence indicator of ISTAT is in Table VG-3. Manufacturing confidence increased from 99.5 in Nov 2014 to 103.7 in Mar 2015. Production expectations increased from 6 in Nov 2014 to 10 in Mar 2015. Confidence in construction rose from 103.7 in Nov 2014 to 116.0 in Mar 2015.

Table VG-3, Italy, Index of Business Confidence in Manufacturing and Construction 2010=100

	Mar    2015	Feb   2015	Jan      2015	Dec 2014	Nov     2014
Mfg Confidence	103.7	100.5	99.9	99.6	99.5
Order Books	-11	-17	-18	-19	-20
Stocks Finished Products	3	4	3	5	3
Production Expectation	10	8	7	8	6
Construction Confidence	116.0	108.5	107.2	99.3	103.7
Order Books	-36	-45	-48	-45	-39
Employment	-11	-12	-10	-24	-24

Mfg: manufacturing

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/154159

VH United Kingdom. Annual data in Table VH-UK show the strong impact of the global recession in the UK with decline of GDP of 4.3 percent in 2009 after dropping 0.3 percent in 2008. Recovery of 1.9 percent in 2010 is relatively low in comparison with annual growth rates in 2007 and earlier years. Growth was only 1.6 percent in 2011 and 0.7 percent in 2012. Growth increased to 1.7 percent in 2013 and 2.8 percent in 2014. The bottom part of Table VH-UK provides average growth rates of UK GDP since 1948. The UK economy grew at 2.6 percent per year on average between 1948 and 2014, which is relatively high for an advanced economy. The growth rate of GDP between 2000 and 2007 is higher at 2.9 percent. Growth in the current cyclical expansion from 2010 to 2014 has been only at 1.7 percent as advanced economies struggle with weak internal demand and world trade. GDP in 2014 higher by 4.0 percent relative to 2007 while it would have been 22.2 higher at trend of 2.9 percent as from 2000 to 2007.

Table VH-UK, UK, Gross Domestic Product, ∆%

	∆% on Prior Year
1998	3.5
1999	3.2
2000	3.8
2001	2.7
2002	2.5
2003	4.3
2004	2.5
2005	2.8
2006	3.0
2007	2.6
2008	-0.3
2009	-4.3
2010	1.9
2011	1.6
2012	0.7
2013	1.7
2014	2.8
Average Growth Rates ∆% per Year
1948-2014	2.6
1950-1959	3.1
1960-1969	3.1
1970-1979	2.6
1980-1989	3.1
1990-1999	2.2
2000-2007	2.9
2007-2013*	1.1
2007-2014*	4.0
2000-2014	1.7

*Absolute change from 2007 to 2013 and from 2007 to 2014

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/quarterly-national-accounts/q4-2014/index.html

The Business Activity Index of the Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI^® decreased from 57.2 in Jan to 56.7 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/55c2dfd969034d85b23cd35747e754c6). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds the combined indices consistent with the UK economy growing at around 0.6 percent in IQ2015 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/55c2dfd969034d85b23cd35747e754c6). The Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®) increased to 54.4 in Mar from 54.0 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/755229914755421b894871d706a09d19). New export orders increased. Rob Dobson, Senior Economist at Markit that compiles the Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI^®, finds that manufacturing conditions suggest growth at a quarterly rate of 0.6 percent (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/755229914755421b894871d706a09d19). Table UK provides the economic indicators for the United Kingdom.

Table UK, UK Economic Indicators

CPI	Feb month ∆%: 0.3 Feb 12-month ∆%: 0.0 Blog 3/29/15
Output/Input Prices	Output Prices: Feb 12-month NSA ∆%: -1.8; excluding food, petroleum ∆%: 0.2 Input Prices: Feb 12-month NSA ∆%: -13.5 Excluding ∆%: -4.1 Blog 3/29/15
GDP Growth	IVQ2014 prior quarter ∆% 0.6; year earlier same quarter ∆%: 3.0 Blog 3/31/13 4/28/13 5/26/13 7/28/13 8/25/13 9/29/13 10/27/13 12/1/13 12/22/13 2/2/14 3/2/14 4/6/14 5/4/14 5/25/14 6/29/14 7/27/14 8/17/14 10/5/14 10/26/14 11/30/14 12/28/14 2/1/15 3/1/15 4/5/15
Industrial Production	Jan 2015/Jan 2014 ∆%: Production Industries 1.3; Manufacturing 1.9 Blog 3/22/15
Retail Sales	Jan month ∆%: -0.3 Jan 12-month ∆%: 5.4 Blog 2/22/15
Labor Market	Nov-Jan Unemployment Rate: 5.7%; Claimant Count 2.4%; Earnings Growth 1.8% Blog 3/22/15 LMGDP 3/22/15
GDP and the Labor Market	IVQ2014 Employment 102.6 IQ2008 =100 GDP IIIQ14 103.4 IQ2008=100 Blog 3/22/14
Trade Balance	Balance SA Jan minus ₤616 million Exports Jan ∆%: -2.3; Nov-Jan ∆%: 1.5 Imports Jan ∆%: -5.6 Jan-Nov ∆%: -2.9 Blog 3/22/15

Links to blog comments in Table UK:

3/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html

3/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html

2/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html

12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

10/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/financial-oscillations-world-inflation.html

10/5/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/world-financial-turbulence-twenty-seven.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

7/27/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

5/4/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html

4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html

3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html

2/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

12/22/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html

12/1/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/exit-risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html

10/27/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/twenty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html

9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html

7/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html

5/26/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

4/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_28.html

03/31/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

Table VH-1 provides quarter on quarter chained value measures of GDP since 1998 in the third estimate for IVQ2014 (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/quarterly-national-accounts/q4-2014/index.html). The UK Office for National Statistics provides revision of the national accounts in accordance with the European System of Accounts 2010 (ESA 2010) (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/quarterly-national-accounts/q2-2014/index.html). GDP grew 0.6 percent in IVQ2014 relative to IIIQ2014. Growth of 0.8 percent in IIIQ2012 interrupted three consecutive quarters of weakness in GDP growth. Most advanced economies are underperforming relative to the period before the global recession. The UK Office for National Statistics analyzes that the decline in the impulse of growth in the UK originated in weakness in markets in the UK and worldwide. The UK Office for National Statistics estimates that GDP in IVQ2014 is higher by 3.7 percent relative to the peak in IQ2008 (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/quarterly-national-accounts/q4-2014/index.html). UK GDP in chained value measures is ₤414,424 million in IQ2008 and ₤429,673 million in IVQ2014 or increase of 3.7 percent. Growth at trend of 2.9 percent per year would bring GDP to ₤502,630 million in 2014. UK GDP in IVQ2014 at ₤429,673 million is lower by ₤74,166 million relative to trend at ₤502,630 million or lower by 14.5 percent compared with trend. The UK Office for National Statistics estimates the contraction of 6.0 percent from peak to trough (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/quarterly-national-accounts/q4-2014/index.html), which is roughly equal at 6.1 percent to compounding the quarterly rates except for rounding in Table VH-1 from IIQ2008 to IIQ2009. UK GDP is ₤414,424 million in IQ2008 declining 6.0 percent to ₤389,388 million in IIQ2009. GDP increased 10.3 percent from IIQ2009 to ₤429,673 million in IVQ2014 or at the annual equivalent rate of 1.7 percent. GDP increased 3.7 percent from IQ2008 to IVQ2014 or at the annual equivalent rate of 0.5 percent.

Table VH-1, UK, Percentage Change of GDP from Prior Quarter, Chained Value Measures ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IV
2014	0.9	0.8	0.6	0.6
2013	0.6	0.6	0.7	0.4
2012	0.1	-0.2	0.8	-0.3
2011	0.5	0.2	0.7	0.0
2010	0.5	1.0	0.6	0.0
2009	-1.8	-0.3	0.2	0.4
2008	0.3	-0.2	-1.7	-2.2
2007	0.8	0.6	0.8	0.5
2006	0.6	0.5	0.2	0.8
2005	0.7	1.0	1.0	1.3
2004	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.4
2003	1.0	1.4	1.3	1.0
2002	0.5	0.8	0.9	0.9
2001	1.1	0.8	0.5	0.3
2000	1.0	0.7	0.4	0.3
1999	0.5	0.2	1.6	1.3
1998	0.6	0.8	0.7	1.0

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/quarterly-national-accounts/q4-2014/index.html

There are four periods in growth of GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier in the UK in the years from 2000 to the present as shown in Table VH-2. (1) Growth rates were quite high from 2000 to 2007. (2) There were six consecutive quarters of contraction of GDP from IIIQ2008 to IVQ2009. Contractions relative to the quarter a year earlier were quite sharp with the highest of 3.8 percent in IVQ2008, 5.8 percent in IQ2009, 5.8 percent in IIQ2009 and 4.0 percent in IIIQ2009. (3) The economy bounced strongly with 2.1 percent in IIQ2010, 2.5 percent in IIIQ2010 and 2.2 percent in IVQ2010. (4) Recovery in 2011 did not continue at rates comparable to those in 2000 to 2007 and even relative to those in the final three quarters of 2010. Growth relative to the same quarter a year earlier fell from 2.2 percent in IVQ2010 to 1.4 percent in IIQ2011, 1.5 percent in IIIQ2011, 1.5 percent in IVQ2011 but only 1.0 percent in IQ2012, increase of 0.6 percent in IIQ2012 relative to IIQ2011, increase of 0.7 percent in IIIQ2012 and 0.4 percent in IVQ2012. In IQ2012, GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, GDP fell 0.2 percent relative to IQ2012 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, GDP increased 0.8 percent and increased 0.7 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier. In IVQ2012, GDP fell 0.3 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Fiscal consolidation in an environment of weakening economic growth is much more challenging. Growth increased to 0.9 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 0.6 percent in IQ2013 relative to IVQ2012. In IIQ2013, GDP increased 0.6 percent and 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIIQ2013 and 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2013 and 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, GDP increased 0.9 percent and 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IQ2014 and 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2013 and 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, GDP increased 0.6 percent and 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier.

Table VH-2, UK, Percentage Change of GDP from Same Quarter a Year Earlier, Chained Value Measures ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IV
2014	2.7	2.9	2.8	3.0
2013	0.9	1.7	1.6	2.4
2012	1.0	0.6	0.7	0.4
2011	2.2	1.4	1.5	1.5
2010	0.8	2.1	2.5	2.2
2009	-5.8	-5.8	-4.0	-1.5
2008	2.2	1.4	-1.1	-3.8
2007	2.2	2.3	3.0	2.7
2006	4.0	3.5	2.6	2.0
2005	1.6	2.3	3.2	4.2
2004	4.0	2.9	1.8	1.2
2003	3.6	4.2	4.6	4.7
2002	2.1	2.1	2.5	3.1
2001	2.5	2.6	2.8	2.8
2000	4.3	4.8	3.5	2.5
1999	3.0	2.5	3.4	3.7
1998	3.9	3.5	3.5	3.2

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/quarterly-national-accounts/q4-2014/index.html

Table VH-3 provides annual percentage changes of gross value added and key components. Production fell 8.8 percent in 2009 and its most important component manufacturing fell 9.4 percent. Services fell 2.9 percent in 2009. Services grew in all years from 2010 to 2014 while manufacturing fell 1.3 percent in 2012 and 0.7 percent in 2013. Manufacturing resumed growth with 2.9 percent in 2014.

Table VH-3, UK, Gross Value Added by Components, ∆% on Prior Year

	TP	MFG	CONS	SERV	GVA BP	GVA EX
2011 Weights	146	101	64	784	1000	981
1998	1.1	0.4	1.5	4.8	3.7	3.7
1999	1.1	0.5	1.3	4.1	3.3	3.1
2000	1.9	2.3	0.9	4.7	3.8	4.3
2001	-1.6	-1.6	1.8	3.7	2.4	2.9
2002	-1.7	-2.6	5.7	2.8	2.2	2.3
2003	-0.7	-0.6	4.8	5.8	4.5	5.0
2004	0.8	1.9	5.3	2.3	2.2	2.7
2005	-0.7	-0.1	-2.4	4.3	3.1	3.6
2006	0.7	2.2	0.8	3.8	3.0	3.5
2007	0.3	0.7	2.2	3.1	2.5	2.7
2008	-2.7	-2.9	-2.6	0.6	-0.1	-
2009	-8.8	-9.4	-13.2	-2.9	-4.5	-4.4
2010	3.1	4.7	8.5	1.4	2.1	2.3
2011	-0.8	1.8	2.2	2.1	1.7	2.2
2012	-2.7	-1.3	-7.5	2.0	0.7	1.0
2013	-0.5	-0.7	1.4	1.9	1.5	1.7
2014	1.6	2.9	7.4	3.0	2.8	2.9

Note: TP: Total Production; MFG: Manufacturing; CONS: Construction; SERV: Services; GVA BP: Gross Value Added at Basic Prices; GVA EX: Gross Value Added excluding Oil and Gas

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/quarterly-national-accounts/q4-2014/index.html

Percentage changes of gross value added and components in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier are in Table VH-4A. Gross value added increased 3.0 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier while services increased 3.4 percent. Manufacturing increased 2.6 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier.

Table VH-4A, UK, Gross Value Added by Components, ∆% on Same Quarter of Previous Year

	TP	MFG	CONS	SERV	GVA BP	GVA EX
2011 Weights	146	101	64	784	1000	981
1998 Q1	1.4	1.1	4.8	4.6	3.8	4.1
1998 Q2	2.0	1.2	0.1	4.7	3.8	3.6
1998 Q3	0.9	0.3	1.2	4.9	3.7	3.8
1998 Q4	0.2	-1.1	-	4.9	3.5	3.4
1999 Q1	-0.5	-1.5	-1.5	4.7	3.2	3.0
1999 Q2	-0.4	-1.0	1.3	3.7	2.7	2.6
1999 Q3	2.3	1.7	3.2	3.9	3.6	3.3
1999 Q4	3.0	2.9	2.1	4.0	3.7	3.7
2000 Q1	2.9	3.1	3.3	4.7	4.2	4.3
2000 Q2	3.2	3.4	2.1	5.4	4.7	5.1
2000 Q3	0.8	1.1	-1.9	4.9	3.6	4.3
2000 Q4	0.7	1.7	-	3.6	2.7	3.5
2001 Q1	-	0.7	-1.9	4.0	2.7	3.7
2001 Q2	-1.6	-1.5	1.6	3.9	2.5	3.1
2001 Q3	-1.5	-1.5	3.8	3.4	2.3	2.7
2001 Q4	-3.2	-4.1	3.7	3.5	2.0	2.2
2002 Q1	-2.6	-3.5	5.2	2.3	1.6	1.7
2002 Q2	-1.8	-3.0	3.5	2.3	1.6	1.6
2002 Q3	-1.7	-2.0	7.2	2.8	2.3	2.7
2002 Q4	-0.8	-1.8	7.0	3.7	3.1	3.3
2003 Q1	-1.5	-2.2	3.5	4.9	3.5	3.7
2003 Q2	-1.3	-0.7	5.4	5.9	4.5	5.3
2003 Q3	-0.5	-1.0	4.6	6.3	4.9	5.3
2003 Q4	0.5	1.4	5.7	6.0	5.0	5.8
2004 Q1	1.4	2.8	11.6	4.3	4.2	5.0
2004 Q2	2.2	3.0	6.9	2.5	2.7	3.0
2004 Q3	-0.3	0.8	3.4	1.6	1.3	1.8
2004 Q4	-0.1	1.2	-0.3	1.0	0.7	1.2
2005 Q1	-1.2	-0.7	-2.7	2.3	1.4	1.9
2005 Q2	-0.7	-0.1	-1.8	3.6	2.6	3.1
2005 Q3	-0.4	0.8	-2.9	5.0	3.6	4.3
2005 Q4	-0.7	-0.3	-2.2	6.4	4.7	5.3
2006 Q1	1.0	1.6	-2.0	5.6	4.3	4.7
2006 Q2	-0.3	1.6	-0.5	4.6	3.4	4.1
2006 Q3	1.2	2.7	1.8	3.0	2.6	2.9
2006 Q4	0.9	3.1	3.9	2.0	1.9	2.2
2007 Q1	0.2	1.9	4.1	2.3	2.0	2.4
2007 Q2	0.7	1.0	3.0	2.7	2.3	2.5
2007 Q3	-	0.1	1.0	3.8	3.0	3.1
2007 Q4	0.3	-0.3	0.5	3.5	2.8	2.8
2008 Q1	-0.3	0.1	0.3	3.1	2.4	2.6
2008 Q2	-1.2	-1.5	-0.4	2.1	1.5	1.7
2008 Q3	-2.3	-2.7	-1.7	-0.5	-0.8	-0.7
2008 Q4	-6.9	-7.3	-8.6	-2.4	-3.4	-3.3
2009 Q1	-10.9	-12.6	-16.1	-3.7	-5.7	-5.7
2009 Q2	-10.0	-10.9	-16.2	-4.0	-5.8	-5.8
2009 Q3	-9.5	-9.7	-12.2	-2.7	-4.4	-4.2
2009 Q4	-4.4	-3.9	-7.8	-1.0	-2.0	-1.8
2010 Q1	1.9	3.0	3.7	0.3	0.7	1.0
2010 Q2	2.6	4.5	10.1	1.4	2.1	2.4
2010 Q3	3.9	6.0	11.0	2.1	2.9	3.0
2010 Q4	3.9	5.3	9.3	1.8	2.6	2.8
2011 Q1	1.5	4.3	6.8	2.0	2.3	2.7
2011 Q2	-0.7	2.6	2.2	1.8	1.5	2.1
2011 Q3	-1.3	0.9	-0.7	2.1	1.5	2.0
2011 Q4	-2.8	-0.4	0.7	2.4	1.5	2.0
2012 Q1	-2.8	-0.5	-4.7	2.5	1.2	1.5
2012 Q2	-2.5	-1.8	-8.5	2.1	0.7	0.9
2012 Q3	-2.0	-0.9	-9.2	2.0	0.7	0.9
2012 Q4	-3.5	-2.0	-7.7	1.6	0.2	0.6
2013 Q1	-2.6	-2.4	-5.0	1.6	0.7	1.0
2013 Q2	-1.0	-0.8	0.9	2.0	1.6	1.8
2013 Q3	-0.4	-0.8	5.0	1.6	1.5	1.6
2013 Q4	1.9	1.3	5.1	2.4	2.3	2.3
2014 Q1	2.3	3.0	9.7	2.5	2.6	2.6
2014 Q2	1.9	3.2	8.5	3.1	2.8	2.9
2014 Q3	1.2	3.0	7.2	3.1	2.7	2.9
2014 Q4	1.0	2.6	4.5	3.4	3.0	3.1

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/quarterly-national-accounts/q4-2014/index.html

Growth rates of gross value added (GVA) and output components of gross value added in a quarter from the preceding quarter are in Table VH-4. Growth of GVA in IVQ2014 originated in growth of services of 0.9 percent and total production of 0.2 percent while manufacturing grew 0.2 percent and construction decreased 2.2 percent.

Table VH-4, UK, Quarter on Quarter Growth of Value Added by Output Components, ∆% on Prior Quarter

Component	2013 Q1	2013 Q2	2013 Q3	2013 Q4	2014 Q1	2014 Q2	2014 Q3	2014 Q4
GVA (Average)	0.6	0.6	0.7	0.4	0.9	0.8	0.6	0.6
Agriculture	-4.5	1.0	0.7	0.7	0.6	0.0	0.6	0.4
Total Production	0.1	0.7	0.8	0.3	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.2
Mining & quarrying inc oil & gas extract	1.7	2.3	3.4	-1.3	-1.2	0.5	-2.3	0.8
Manufacturing	-0.3	0.5	0.5	0.6	1.4	0.6	0.4	0.2
Electricity, gas and air	2.7	-2.3	-5.8	1.7	-4.3	0.3	3.1	-2.6
Water and Sewerage	-1.0	2.7	4.4	0.1	-0.5	-3.0	-0.4	1.1
Construction	-0.7	2.4	3.0	0.3	3.7	1.3	1.7	-2.2
Total Services	0.7	0.5	0.6	0.6	0.8	1.0	0.7	0.9
Distn, hotels and catering	1.1	1.6	1.1	0.5	1.7	1.2	0.9	1.4
Transport, storage and comms	1.8	-0.4	0.0	0.1	0.5	1.6	1.2	0.9
Business services and Finance	0.4	0.7	0.9	1.0	0.8	1.2	0.8	1.3
Government and other	0.2	-0.1	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.0

Note: TP: Total Production; MFG: Manufacturing; CONS: Construction; SERV: Services; GVA BP: Gross Value Added at Basic Prices; GVA EX: Gross Value Added excluding Oil and Gas

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/quarterly-national-accounts/q4-2014/index.html

Services contributed 0.4 percentage points to growth of GVA in IIQ2013, 0.5 percentage points in IIQ2013, 0.5 percentage points in IVQ2013, 0.6 percentage points in IQ2014, 0.8 percentage points in IIQ2014, 0.5 percentage points in IIIQ2014 and 0.7 percentage points in IVQ2014, as shown in Table VH-5. Business services and finance contributed 0.2 percentage points in IIIQ2013, 0.3 percentage points in IVQ2013, 0.3 percentage points in IQ2014, 0.4 percentage points in IIQ2014, 0.2 percentage points in IIIQ2014 and 0.4 percentage points in IVQ2014. Manufacturing did not contribute to growth in IQ2013 and production contributed 0.1 percentage points in IIQ2013. Manufacturing and production contributed 0.1 percentage points in IIIQ2013 and manufacturing contributed 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2013. Manufacturing contributed 0.1 percentage points in IQ2014 and total production 0.1 percentage points. Manufacturing and total production did not contribute in IIQ2014, IIIQ2014 and IVQ2014 with exception of 0.1 percentage points by manufacturing in IIQ2014.

Table VH-5, UK, Contribution to Quarter on Prior Quarter of Growth of Value Added by Output Components, %

Component	2013 Q1	2013 Q2	2013 Q3	2013 Q4	2014 Q1	2014 Q2	2014 Q3	2014 Q4
Agriculture	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total Production	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
Mining & quarrying inc oil & gas extract	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Manufacturing	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
Electricity, gas and air	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Water and Sewerage	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Construction	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.1	-0.1
Total Services	0.5	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.6	0.8	0.5	0.7
Distn, hotels and catering	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.2
Transport, storage and comms	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1
Business services and Finance	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.4
Government and other	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0

Note: TP: Total Production; MFG: Manufacturing; CONS: Construction; SERV: Services; GVA BP: Gross Value Added at Basic Prices; GVA EX: Gross Value Added excluding Oil and Gas

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/quarterly-national-accounts/q4-2014/index.html

Table VH-6 provides UK growth of value added by output components in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier for 2013 and 2014. Total production and manufacturing fell in all four quarters of 2012 and in the first three quarters of 2013 relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Total production increased 1.9 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 2.3 percent in IQ2014 while manufacturing increased 1.3 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier, 3.0 percent in IQ2014, 3.2 percent in IIQ2014, 3.0 percent in IIIQ2014 and 2.6 percent in IVQ2014. Total services supported the economy with growth in all quarters relative to a year earlier from IQ2012 to IVQ2014. Construction fell sharply in all four quarters of 2012 and in the first quarter of 2013 relative to a year earlier with growth of 0.9 percent in IIQ2013, 5.0 percent in IIIQ2013, 5.1 percent in IVQ2013, 9.7 percent in IQ2014, 8.5 percent in IIQ2014, 7.2 percent in IIIQ2014 and 4.5 percent in IVQ2014.

Table VH-6, UK, Growth of Value Added by Output Components, ∆% on Same Quarter of Prior Year

Component	2013 Q1	2013 Q2	2013 Q3	2013 Q4	2014 Q1	2014 Q2	2014 Q3	2014 Q4
GVA (Average)	0.7	1.6	1.5	2.3	2.6	2.8	2.7	3.0
Agriculture	-6.5	-3.7	-3.0	-2.2	3.0	2.0	1.9	1.6
Total Production	-2.6	-1.0	-0.4	1.9	2.3	1.9	1.2	1.0
Mining & quarrying inc oil & gas extract	-9.7	-4.3	-1.1	6.1	3.1	1.3	-4.3	-2.2
Manufacturing	-2.4	-0.8	-0.8	1.3	3.0	3.2	3.0	2.6
Electricity, gas and air	8.8	-0.5	-3.0	-3.8	-10.4	-8.0	0.6	-3.7
Water and Sewerage	-1.2	2.0	6.6	6.3	6.8	0.9	-3.7	-2.8
Construction	-5.0	0.9	5.0	5.1	9.7	8.5	7.2	4.5
Total Services	1.6	2.0	1.6	2.4	2.5	3.1	3.1	3.4
Distn, hotels and catering	2.5	4.0	3.3	4.4	5.0	4.5	4.2	5.2
Transport, storage and comms	0.9	1.6	1.6	1.4	0.2	2.2	3.5	4.3
Business services and Finance	2.1	2.3	2.4	3.1	3.5	4.0	3.9	4.1
Government and other	0.7	0.4	-0.6	0.8	0.9	1.3	1.2	0.8

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/quarterly-national-accounts/q4-2014/index.html

Total production subtracted from growth of value added in all quarters of 2012 and the first three quarters of 2013 relative to a year earlier, contributing 0.3 percentage points in IVQ2013, 0.3 percentage points in IQ2014, 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2014, 0.2 percentage points in IIIQ2014 and 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2014, as shown in Table VH-7. Total services added to growth of value added in all four quarters of 2012 and all four quarters of 2013 relative to a year earlier. Total services contributed 2.4 percentage points to growth of value added in IIQ2014, 2.5 percentage points in IIIQ2014 and 2.7 percentage points in IVQ2014. Construction also deducted in all four quarters of 2012 and the first quarter of 2013 relative to a year earlier with contribution of 0.1 percentage points in IIQ2013, adding 0.3 percentage points in IIIQ2013 and 0.3 percentage points IVQ2013. Construction added 0.6 percentage points in IQ2014, 0.5 percentage points in IIQ2014, 0.4 percentage points in IVQ2014 and 0.3 percentage points in IVQ2014.

Table VH-7, UK, Contribution to Growth on Same Quarter of Prior Year of Value Added by Output Components, %

Component	2013 Q1	2013 Q2	2013 Q3	2013 Q4	2014 Q1	2014 Q2	2014 Q3	2014 Q4
Agriculture	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total Production	-0.4	-0.1	-0.1	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.1
Mining & quarrying inc oil & gas extract	-0.2	-0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	-0.1	0.0
Manufacturing	-0.2	-0.1	-0.1	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3
Electricity, gas and air	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	-0.1	0.0	0.0
Water and Sewerage	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
Construction	-0.3	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.6	0.5	0.4	0.3
Total Services	1.3	1.6	1.3	1.9	2.0	2.4	2.5	2.7
Distn, hotels and catering	0.3	0.6	0.5	0.6	0.7	0.6	0.6	0.7
Transport, storage and comms	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.4
Business services and Finance	0.7	0.7	0.8	1.0	1.1	1.3	1.2	1.3
Government and other	0.2	0.1	-0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.2

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/quarterly-national-accounts/q4-2014/index.html

Quarter-on-quarter growth of value added by expenditure components is in Table VH-8. Household final consumption expenditure grew 0.6 percent in IIIQ2013 relative to IIQ2013, 0.4 percent in IVQ2013, 0.8 percent in IQ2014 and 0.5 percent in IIQ2014. Household final consumption expenditures grew 1.0 percent in IIIQ2014 and 0.6 percent in IVQ2014. General government consumption increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2013 and decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ201, growing 0.2 percent in IQ2014, 1.7 percent in IIQ2014, 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 and minus 0.2 percent in IVQ2014. Gross capital formation increased 12.3 percent in IIIQ2013 and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) increased 2.7 percent. Gross capital formation increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2013 and GFCF increased 2.3 percent. Gross capital formation decreased 1.5 percent in IQ2014 and GFCF increased 3.2 percent. Gross capital formation decreased 0.3 percent in IIQ2014 and GFCF increased 0.7 percent. Gross capital formation increased 1.9 percent in IIIQ2014 and GFCF 1.7 percent. Gross capital formation decreased 2.8 percent in IVQ2014 and GFCF decreased 0.6 percent. In IVQ2013, exports decreased 1.3 percent and imports decreased 1.4 percent. In IQ2014, exports increased 1.7 percent and imports increased 1.2 percent. In IIQ2014, exports fell 0.7 percent and imports fell 1.2 percent. Exports decreased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 while imports increased 1.4 percent. In IVQ2014, exports increased 4.6 percent and imports 1.6 percent.

Table VH-8, UK, Quarter on Quarter Growth of Value Added by Expenditure Components, ∆% on Prior Quarter

	IVQ2013	IQ2014	IIQ2014	IIIQ2014	IV2014
HFC	0.4	0.8	0.5	1.0	0.6
NPISH	-1.0	-0.1	1.8	1.2	-3.2
GOVT	-0.1	0.2	1.7	0.5	-0.2
GCF	0.8	-1.5	-0.3	1.9	-2.8
GFCF	2.3	3.2	0.7	1.7	-0.6
BI	2.7	1.7	2.7	0.3	-0.9
Exports	-1.3	1.7	-0.7	-0.1	4.6
Less Imports	-1.4	1.2	-1.2	1.4	1.6

HFC: Household Final Consumption; NPISH: NPISH Final Consumption; GOVT: General Government; GCF: Gross Capital Formation; GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation; BINV: Business Investment; EXP: Exports; IMP: Less Imports

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/quarterly-national-accounts/q4-2014/index.html

Table VH-9 provides contributions to value added by expenditure components in a quarter relative to the prior quarter. Household final consumption expenditure contributed 0.2 percentage points in IVQ2013, 0.4 percentage points in IQ2014 and 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2014. Household final consumption contributed 0.6 percentage points in IIIQ2014 and 0.4 percentage points in IVQ2014. Net trade deducted added 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2013. In IQ2014, net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points, contributing 0.2 percentage points in IIQ2014 and deducting 0.5 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 0.8 percentage points in IVQ2014. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) added 0.4 percentage points in IVQ2013, 0.5 percentage points in IQ2014, 0.1 percentage points in IIQ2014 and 0.3 percentage points in IIIQ2014, deducting 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2014.

Table VH-9, UK, Contribution to Quarter on Prior Quarter of Growth of Value Added by Expenditure Components, %

	IVQ2013	IQ2014	IIQ2014	IIIQ2014	IVQ2014
HFC	0.2	0.5	0.3	0.6	0.4
NPISH	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	-0.1
GOVT	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.1	0.0
GCF	0.1	0.3	-0.1	0.3	-0.5
GFCF	0.4	0.5	0.1	0.3	-0.1
BI	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.0	-0.1
Exports	-0.4	0.5	–0.2	0.0	-1.4
Less Imports	-0.5	0.4	–0.4	0.5	0.5
Net Trade	0.1	0.1	0.2	-0.5	0.8

Components may not add because of rounding

HFC: Household Final Consumption; NPISH: NPISH Final Consumption; GOVT: General Government; GCF: Gross Capital Formation; GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation; BINV: Business Investment; EXP: Exports; IMP: Less Imports

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/quarterly-national-accounts/q4-2014/index.html

Table VH-10 provides UK growth of value added by expenditure components in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Household final consumption expenditure grew 1.7 percent in IVQ2013 and 2.1 percent in IQ2014. Household final consumption grew 2.3 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier, 2.8 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 3.0 percent in IVQ2014. General government final consumption expenditure changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2013. General government consumption expenditure changed 0.1 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 2.3 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier, 2.3 percent in IIIQ2014 and 2.1 percent in IVQ2014. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) increased 6.8 percent in IVQ2013 and 9.0 percent in IQ2014. GFCF increased 9.2 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier, 8.2 percent in IIIQ2014 and 5.1 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, exports increased 0.3 percent and imports increased 2.0 percent. Exports increased 1.4 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and imports 5.5 percent. Exports decreased 3.7 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 0.4 percent. Exports fell 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier while imports fell 0.1 percent. Exports increased 5.6 percent in IVQ2014 and imports increased 3.0 percent.

Table VH-10, UK, Growth of Value Added by Expenditure Components, ∆% on Same Quarter of Prior Year

	IVQ2013	IQ2014	IIQ2014	IIIQ2014	IVQ2014
HFC	1.7	2.1	2.3	2.8	3.0
NPISH	4.1	1.2	0.8	1.9	-0.4
GOVT	0.0	0.0	2.3	2.3	2.1
GCF	11.5	17.6	14.5	4.0	0.3
GFCF	6.8	9.0	9.2	8.2	5.1
BI	7.1	7.8	11.2	7.4	3.7
Exports	0.3	1.4	-3.7	-0.5	5.6
Less Imports	2.0	5.5	0.4	-0.1	3.0

HFC: Household Final Consumption; NPISH: NPISH Final Consumption; GOVT: General Government; GCF: Gross Capital Formation; GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation; BINV: Business Investment; EXP: Exports; IMP: Less Imports

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/quarterly-national-accounts/q4-2014/index.html

Table VH-11 provides contribution of value added by expenditure components in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Household final consumption added 1.1 percentage points in IVQ2013 and 1.3 percentage points in IQ2014. Household final consumption added 1.4 percentage points in IIQ2014, 1.7 percentage points in IIIQ2014 and 1.8 percentage points in IVQ2014. General government final consumption expenditure added 0.0 percentage points in IVQ2013 and 0.0 percentage points in IQ2014. General government final consumption added 0.5 percentage points in IIQ2014, 0.5 percentage points in IIIQ2014 and 0.4 percentage points in IVQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 1.4 percentage points in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 1.3 percentage points in growth of IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points to growth in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier, adding 0.7 percentage points in IVQ2014.

VH-11, UK, Contribution to Growth on Same Quarter of Prior Year of Value Added by Expenditure Components, %

	IVQ2013	IQ2014	IIQ2014	IIIQ2014	IVQ2014
HFC	1.1	1.3	1.4	1.7	1.8
NPISH	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0
GOVT	0.0	0.0	0.5	0.5	0.4
GCF	1.9	2.8	2.3	0.7	0.1
GFCF	1.1	1.5	1.5	1.3	0.9
BI	0.7	0.8	1.1	0.8	0.4
Exports	0.1	0.4	-1.2	-0.1	1.7
Less Imports	0.7	1.8	0.1	0.0	1.0
Net Trade	-0.6	-1.4	-1.3	-0.1	0.7

Components may not add because of rounding

HFC: Household Final Consumption; NPISH: NPISH Final Consumption; GOVT: General Government; GCF: Gross Capital Formation; GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation; BINV: Business Investment; EXP: Exports; IMP: Less Imports

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/quarterly-national-accounts/q4-2014/index.html

Table VH-12 provides growth of value added by expenditure components in a year relative to the prior year. Household final consumption expenditure grew 1.7 percent in 2013 and 2.5 percent in 2014. General government final consumption expenditure fell 0.3 percent in 2013 and increased 1.7 percent in 2014. Gross capital formation increased 4.7 percent in 2013 and 8.6 percent in 2014. GFCF increased 3.4 percent in 2013 and 7.8 percent in IVQ2014. Exports grew 1.5 percent in 2013 and 0.6 percent in 2014.

Table VH-12, UK, Growth of Value Added by Expenditure Components, ∆% on Prior Year

	2013	2014
HFC	1.7	2.5
NPISH	0.7	0.9
GOVT	-0.3	1.7
GCF	4.7	8.6
GFCF	3.4	7.8
BI	5.3	7.5
Exports	1.5	0.6
Less Imports	1.4	2.2

HFC: Household Final Consumption; NPISH: NPISH Final Consumption; GOVT: General Government; GCF: Gross Capital Formation; GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation; BINV: Business Investment; EXP: Exports; IMP: Less Imports

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/quarterly-national-accounts/q4-2014/index.html

Contributions of value added by expenditure components in a year relative to the prior year are in Table VH-13. Household final consumption added 1.1 percentage points in 2013 and 1.6 percentage points in 2014. Gross capital formation contributed 0.8 percentage points in 2013 and 1.5 percentage points in 2014. GFCF added 0.5 percentage points in 2013 and 1.3 percentage points in 2014.

VH-13, UK, Contribution to Growth on Prior Year of Value Added by Expenditure Components, %

	2013	2014
HFC	1.1	1.6
NPISH	0.0	0.0
GOVT	-0.1	0.4
GCF	0.8	1.5
GFCF	0.5	1.3
BINV	0.5	0.8
Exports	0.5	0.2
Less Imports	0.5	0.7
Net Trade	0.0	-0.5

HFC: Household Final Consumption; NPISH: NPISH Final Consumption; GOVT: General Government; GCF: Gross Capital Formation; GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation; BINV: Business Investment; EXP: Exports; IMP: Less Imports

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/quarterly-national-accounts/q4-2014/index.html

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015.