Rising Valuations of Risk Financial Assets, Recovery without Hiring, Ten Million Fewer Full-time Jobs, Youth and Middle Age Unemployment, Rules, Discretionary Authorities and Slow Productivity Growth, United States International Trade, World Cyclical Slow Growth and Global Recession Risk: Part V

 

Rising Valuations of Risk Financial Assets, Recovery without Hiring, Ten Million Fewer Full-time Jobs, Youth and Middle Age Unemployment, Rules, Discretionary Authorities and Slow Productivity Growth, United States International Trade, World Cyclical Slow Growth and Global Recession Risk

Carlos M. Pelaez

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016

II Recovery without Hiring

IA1 Hiring Collapse

IA2 Labor Underutilization

ICA3 Ten Million Fewer Full-time Jobs

IA4 Theory and Reality of Cyclical Slow Growth Not Secular Stagnation: Youth and Middle-Age Unemployment

IIA Rules, Discretionary Authorities and Slow Productivity Growth

IIB United States International Trade

III World Financial Turbulence

IIIA Financial Risks

IIIE Appendix Euro Zone Survival Risk

IIIF Appendix on Sovereign Bond Valuation

IV Global Inflation

V World Economic Slowdown

VA United States

VB Japan

VC China

VD Euro Area

VE Germany

VF France

VG Italy

VH United Kingdom

VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets

VII Economic Indicators

VIII Interest Rates

IX Conclusion

References

Appendixes

Appendix I The Great Inflation

IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies

IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact

IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort

IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis

IIIGA Monetary Policy with Deficit Financing of Economic Growth

IIIGB Adjustment during the Debt Crisis of the 1980s

V World Economic Slowdown. Table V-1 is constructed with the database of the IMF (http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29) to show GDP in dollars in 2014 and the growth rate of real GDP of the world and selected regional countries from 2014 to 2017. The data illustrate the concept often repeated of “two-speed recovery” of the world economy from the recession of 2007 to 2009. The IMF has changed its forecast of the world economy to 3.4 percent in 2014 and 3.1 percent in 2015 but accelerating to 3.2 percent in 2016 and 3.5 percent in 2017. Slow-speed recovery occurs in the “major advanced economies” of the G7 that account for $35,570 billion of world output of $77,825 billion, or 45.7 percent, but are projected to grow at much lower rates than world output, 1.8 percent on average from 2014 to 2017 in contrast with 3.3 percent for the world as a whole. While the world would grow 13.9 percent in the four years from 2014 to 2017, the G7 as a whole would grow 7.4 percent. The difference in dollars of 2014 is high: growing by 13.9 percent would add around $10.8 trillion of output to the world economy, or roughly, two times the output of the economy of Japan of $4,596 billion but growing by 7.4 percent would add $5.8 trillion of output to the world, or about the output of Japan in 2014. The “two speed” concept is in reference to the growth of the 150 countries labeled as emerging and developing economies (EMDE) with joint output in 2014 of $30,690 billion, or 39.4 percent of world output. The EMDEs would grow cumulatively 18.6 percent or at the average yearly rate of 4.4 percent, contributing $5.7 trillion from 2014 to 2017 or the equivalent of somewhat more than one half the GDP of $10,431 billion of China in 2014. The final four countries in Table V-1 often referred as BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China), are large, rapidly growing emerging economies. Their combined output in 2014 adds to $16,921 billion, or 21.7 percent of world output, which is equivalent to 47.5 percent of the combined output of the major advanced economies of the G7.

Table V-1, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Real GDP Growth

	GDP USD 2014	Real GDP ∆% 2014	Real GDP ∆% 2015	Real GDP ∆% 2016	Real GDP ∆% 2017
World	77,825	3.4	3.1	3.2	3.5
G7	35,570	1.7	1.8	1.8	1.9
Canada	1,784	2.5	1.2	1.5	1.9
France	2,834	0.2	1.1	1.1	1.3
DE	3,874	1.6	1.5	1.5	1.6
Italy	2,142	-0.3	0.8	1.0	1.2
Japan	4,596	0.0	0.5	0.5	-0.1
UK	2,992	2.9	2.2	1.9	2.2
US	17,348	2.4	2.4	2.4	2.5
Euro Area	13,430	0.9	1.6	1.5	1.6
DE	3,874	1.6	1.5	1.5	1.6
France	2,834	0.2	1.1	1.1	1.3
Italy	2,142	-0.3	0.8	1.0	1.2
POT	230	0.9	1.5	1.4	1.3
Ireland	251	5.2	7.8	5.0	3.6
Greece	236	0.7	-0.2	-0.6	2.7
Spain	1,384	1.4	3.2	2.6	2.3
EMDE	30,690	4.6	4.0	4.1	4.7
Brazil	2,417	0.1	-3.8	-3.8	0.0
Russia	2,030	0.7	-3.7	-1.8	0.8
India	2,043	7.2	7.3	7.5	7.5
China	10,431	7.3	6.9	6.5	6.2

Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries); POT: Portugal

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook databank

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/01/weodata/index.aspx

Continuing high rates of unemployment in advanced economies constitute another characteristic of the database of the WEO (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/01/weodata/index.aspx). Table V-2 is constructed with the WEO database to provide rates of unemployment from 2013 to 2017 for major countries and regions. In fact, unemployment rates for 2014 in Table I-2 are high for all countries: unusually high for countries with high rates most of the time and unusually high for countries with low rates most of the time. The rates of unemployment are particularly high in 2014 for the countries with sovereign debt difficulties in Europe: 13.9 percent for Portugal (POT), 11.3 percent for Ireland, 26.5 percent for Greece, 24.5 percent for Spain and 12.6 percent for Italy, which is lower but still high. The G7 rate of unemployment is 6.4 percent. Unemployment rates are not likely to decrease substantially if slow growth persists in advanced economies.

Table V-2, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Unemployment Rate as Percent of Labor Force

	% Labor Force 2013	% Labor Force 2014	% Labor Force 2015	% Labor Force 2016	% Labor Force 2017
World	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
G7	7.1	6.4	5.8	5.5	5.5
Canada	7.1	6.9	6.9	7.3	7.4
France	10.3	10.3	10.4	10.1	10.0
DE	5.2	5.0	4.6	4.6	4.8
Italy	12.2	12.6	11.9	11.4	10.9
Japan	4.0	3.6	3.4	3.3	3.3
UK	7.6	6.2	5.4	5.0	5.0
US	7.4	6.2	5.3	4.9	4.8
Euro Area	12.0	11.6	10.9	10.3	9.9
DE	5.2	5.0	4.6	4.6	4.8
France	10.3	10.3	10.4	10.1	10.0
Italy	12.2	12.6	11.9	11.4	10.9
POT	16.2	13.9	12.4	11.6	11.1
Ireland	13.0	11.3	9.4	8.3	7.5
Greece	27.5	26.5	25.0	25.0	23.4
Spain	26.1	24.5	22.1	19.7	18.3
EMDE	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
Brazil	5.4	4.8	6.8	9.2	10.2
Russia	5.5	5.2	5.6	6.5	6.3
India	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
China	4.1	4.1	4.1	4.1	4.1

Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries)

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/01/weodata/index.aspx

Table V-3 provides the latest available estimates of GDP for the regions and countries followed in this blog from IQ2012 to IVQ2015 available now for all countries. There are preliminary estimates for all countries for IQ2016. Growth is weak throughout most of the world.

• Japan. The GDP of Japan increased 1.0 percent in IQ2012, 3.9 percent at SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) and 3.5 percent relative to a year earlier but part of the jump could be the low level a year earlier because of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan is experiencing difficulties with the overvalued yen because of worldwide capital flight originating in zero interest rates with risk aversion in an environment of softer growth of world trade. Japan’s GDP fell 0.4 percent in IIQ2012 at the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of minus 1.6 percent, which is much lower than 3.5 percent in IQ2012. Growth of 3.5 percent in IIQ2012 in Japan relative to IIQ2011 has effects of the low level of output because of Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012 at the SAAR of minus 2.0 percent and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2012 at the SAAR of minus 0.2 percent and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan grew 1.0 percent in IQ2013 at the SAAR of 4.2 percent and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2013 at the SAAR of 2.7 percent and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP grew 0.5 percent in IIIQ2013 at the SAAR of 1.9 percent and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Japan’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent at the SAAR of minus 0.3 percent, increasing 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 1.3 percent in IQ2014 at the SAAR of 5.3 percent and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Japan’s GDP fell 2.0 percent at the SAAR of minus 7.9 percent and fell 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.7 percent in IIIQ2014 at the SAAR of minus 2.7 percent and fell 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, Japan’s GDP grew 0.5 percent, at the SAAR of 2.1 percent, decreasing 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 1.3 percent in IQ2015 at the SAAR of 5.2 percent and decreased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP decreased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 at the SAAR of minus 1.7 percent and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 at the SAAR of 1.7 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IVQ2015 at the SAAR of minus 1.8 percent and grew 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, the GDP of Japan increased 0.5 percent at the SAAR of 1.9 percent and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier.
• China. China’s GDP grew 1.8 percent in IQ2012, annualizing to 7.4 percent, and 8.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 2.2 percent in IIQ2012, which annualizes to 9.1 percent, and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 1.8 percent in IIIQ2012, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and 7.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, China grew at 1.9 percent, which annualizes at 7.8 percent, and 8.1 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, China grew at 1.9 percent, which annualizes at 7.8 percent, and 7.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, China grew at 1.7 percent, which annualizes at 7.0 percent, and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 2.1 percent in IIIQ2013, which annualizes at 8.7 percent, and increased 7.9 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 1.6 percent in IVQ2013, which annualized to 7.0 percent, and 7.7 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP grew 1.7 percent in IQ2014, which annualizes to 7.0 percent, and 7.4 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP grew 1.8 percent in IIQ2014, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and 7.5 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP grew 1.9 percent in IIIQ2014, which is equivalent to 7.8 percent in a year, and 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew 1.7 percent in IVQ2014, which annualizes at 7.0 percent, and 7.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 1.6 percent in IQ2015, which annualizes at 6.6 percent, and 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew 1.8 percent in IIQ2015, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and increased 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2015, China’s GDP grew at 1.8 percent, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 1.5 percent in IVQ2015, which annualizes at 6.1 percent, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew 1.2 percent in IQ2016, which annualizes at 4.9 percent, and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2016, the GDP of China increased 1.8 percent, which annualizes to 7.4 percent, and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. There is decennial change in leadership in China (http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/special/18cpcnc/index.htm). Growth rates of GDP of China in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier have been declining from 2011 to 2016.
• Euro Area. GDP fell 0.2 percent in the euro area in IQ2012 and decreased 0.5 in IQ2012 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP contracted 0.3 percent IIQ2012 and fell 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.1 percent and declined 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.4 percent relative to the prior quarter and fell 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, the GDP of the euro area fell 0.3 percent and decreased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2013, euro area GDP increased 0.3 percent and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2013 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The euro area’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The euro area’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier.
• Germany. The GDP of Germany increased 0.4 percent in IQ2012 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier but 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier when adjusted for calendar (CA) effects. In IIIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP contracted 0.5 percent in IVQ2012 and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, Germany’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent and fell 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 0.9 percent and grew 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2013 and grew 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.6 percent in IQ2014 and grew 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Germany’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.2 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2015 and grew 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2015 and grew 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2015 and grew 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, the GDP of Germany increased 0.7 percent and grew 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier.
• United States. Growth of US GDP in IQ2012 was 0.7 percent, at SAAR of 2.7 percent and higher by 2.8 percent relative to IQ2011. US GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2012, 1.9 percent at SAAR and 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, US GDP grew 0.1 percent, 0.5 percent at SAAR and 2.4 percent relative to IIIQ2011. In IVQ2012, US GDP grew 0.0 percent, 0.1 percent at SAAR and 1.3 percent relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, US GDP grew at 2.8 percent SAAR, 0.7 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.3 percent relative to the same quarter in 2012. In IIQ2013, US GDP grew at 0.8 percent in SAAR, 0.2 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.0 percent relative to IIQ2012. US GDP grew at 3.1 percent in SAAR in IIIQ2013, 0.8 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.7 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/business-fixed-investment-has-been-soft.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/financial-asset-values-rebound-from.html). In IVQ2013, US GDP grew 1.0 percent at 4.0 percent SAAR and 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, US GDP decreased 0.3 percent, increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier and fell 1.2 percent at SAAR. In IIQ2014, US GDP increased 1.0 percent at 4.0 percent SAAR and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP increased 1.2 percent in IVQ2014 at 5.0 percent SAAR and increased 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, US GDP increased 0.6 percent at SAAR of 2.3 percent and increased 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2015 at SAAR of 2.0 percent and grew 3.3 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR 2.6 percent in IIQ2015, increasing 0.6 percent in the quarter and 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2015 at SAAR of 2.0 percent and grew 2.2 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 0.9 percent in IVQ2015, increasing 0.2 percent in the quarter and 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, US GDP grew 0.2 percent at SAAR of 0.8 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 1.2 percent in IQ2016, increasing 0.3 percent in the quarter and 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier.
• United Kingdom. In IQ2012, UK GDP increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, GDP fell 0.1 percent relative to IQ2012 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, GDP increased 1.1 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier. In IVQ2012, GDP fell 0.2 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Fiscal consolidation in an environment of weakening economic growth is much more challenging. GDP increased 1.5 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 0.6 percent in IQ2013 relative to IVQ2012. In IIQ2013, GDP increased 0.5 percent and 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIIQ2013 and 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2013 and 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, GDP increased 0.8 percent and 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.9 percent in IIQ2014 and 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIIQ2013 and 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, GDP increased 0.8 percent and 3.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2015 and increased 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2016 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2016 and grew 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier.
• Italy. In IIQ2016, GDP changed 0.0 percent and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2015, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2015 and 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2014 and fell 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 and fell 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.1 percent in IIQ2014 and declined 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy decreased 0.2 percent in IQ2014 and fell 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2013 and fell 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2013 and fell 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IIQ2013, continuing eight consecutive quarterly declines, and fell 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.9 percent in IQ2013 and declined 2.7 percent relative to IQ2012. GDP had been growing during six consecutive quarters but at very low rates from IQ2010 to IIQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell in eight consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IIQ2013 at increasingly higher rates of contraction from 0.5 percent in IIIQ2011 to 1.0 percent in IVQ2011, 1.0 percent in IQ2012, 0.7 percent in IIQ2012 and 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012. The pace of decline accelerated to minus 0.6 percent in IVQ2012 and minus 0.9 percent in IQ2013. GDP contracted cumulatively 5.2 percent in eight consecutive quarterly contractions from IIIQ2011 to IIQ2013 at the annual equivalent rate of minus 2.6 percent. The total contraction in the 13 quarters including IVQ2013, IQ2014, IIQ2014, IIIQ2014 and IVQ2014 accumulates to 5.7 percent. The yearly rate has fallen from 2.3 percent in IVQ2010 to minus 2.7 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.7 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.0 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.4 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.9 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.1 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and fell 0.2 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.4 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and fell 0.4 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.1 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.0 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of Italy in IIIQ2015 is lower by 8.9 percent relative to IQ2008. The fiscal adjustment of Italy is significantly more difficult with the economy not growing especially on the prospects of increasing government revenue. The strategy is for reforms to improve productivity, facilitating future fiscal consolidation.
• France. France’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IQ2012 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IIQ2012 and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2012 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, France’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2013 and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2013 and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2013 and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, France’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2015, France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2015, the GDP of France increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier.

Table V-3, Percentage Changes of GDP Quarter on Prior Quarter and on Same Quarter Year Earlier, ∆%

	IQ2012/IVQ2011	IQ2012/IQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.7        SAAR: 2.7	2.8
Japan	QOQ: 1.0 SAAR: 3.9	3.5
China	1.8	8.1
Euro Area	-0.2	-0.5
Germany	0.4	1.6
France	-0.1	0.4
Italy	-1.0	-2.3
United Kingdom	0.4	1.2
	IIQ2012/IQ2012	IIQ2012/IIQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.5         SAAR: 1.9	2.5
Japan	QOQ: -0.4 SAAR: -1.6	3.5
China	2.2	7.6
Euro Area	-0.3	-0.8
Germany	0.1	0.4 0.9 CA
France	-0.2	0.3
Italy	-0.7	-3.2
United Kingdom	-0.1	1.0
	IIIQ2012/ IIQ2012	IIIQ2012/ IIIQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.1  SAAR: 0.5	2.4
Japan	QOQ: –0.5 SAAR: –2.0	0.2
China	1.8	7.5
Euro Area	-0.1	-0.9
Germany	0.2	0.2
France	0.2	0.2
Italy	-0.5	-3.2
United Kingdom	1.1	1.8
	IVQ2012/IIIQ2012	IVQ2012/IVQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.0 SAAR: 0.1	1.3
Japan	QOQ: 0.0 SAAR: -0.2	0.0
China	1.9	8.1
Euro Area	-0.4	-1.0
Germany	-0.5	-0.1
France	0.0	0.0
Italy	-0.6	-2.7
United Kingdom	-0.2	1.3
	IQ2013/IVQ2012	IQ2013/IQ2012
United States	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.8	1.3
Japan	QOQ: 1.0 SAAR: 4.2	0.3
China	1.9	7.9
Euro Area	-0.3	-1.1
Germany	-0.2	-1.5
France	-0.1	0.0
Italy	-0.9	-2.7
UK	0.6	1.5
	IIQ2013/IQ2013	IIQ2013/IIQ2012
United States	QOQ: 0.2 SAAR: 0.8	1.0
Japan	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.7	1.1
China	1.7	7.6
Euro Area	0.4	-0.4
Germany	0.9	0.9
France	0.7	0.9
Italy	-0.1	-2.0
UK	0.5	2.1
	IIIQ2013/IIQ2013	III/Q2013/  IIIQ2012
USA	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.1	1.7
Japan	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 1.9	2.0
China	2.1	7.9
Euro Area	0.3	0.0
Germany	0.4	1.2
France	0.0	0.7
Italy	0.2	-1.4
UK	0.8	1.7
	IVQ2013/IIIQ2013	IVQ2013/IVQ2012
USA	QOQ: 1.0 SAAR: 4.0	2.7
Japan	QOQ: -0.1 SAAR: -0.3	2.1
China	1.6	7.7
Euro Area	0.2	0.6
Germany	0.4	1.4
France	0.3	0.9
Italy	-0.1	-0.9
UK	0.5	2.4
	IQ2014/IVQ2013	IQ2014/IQ2013
USA	QOQ -0.3 SAAR -1.2	1.6
Japan	QOQ: 1.3 SAAR: 5.3	2.7
China	1.7	7.4
Euro Area	0.2	1.1
Germany	0.6	2.6
France	-0.1	0.9
Italy	-0.2	-0.1
UK	0.8	2.6
	IIQ2014/IQ2014	IIQ2014/IIQ2013
USA	QOQ 1.0 SAAR 4.0	2.4
Japan	QOQ: -2.0 SAAR: -7.9	-0.3
China	1.8	7.5
Euro Area	0.1	0.8
Germany	-0.1	0.9
France	0.1	0.4
Italy	-0.1	-0.2
UK	0.9	3.1
	IIIQ2014/IIQ2014	IIIQ2014/IIIQ2013
USA	QOQ: 1.2 SAAR: 5.0	2.9
Japan	QOQ: -0.7 SAAR: -2.7	-1.5
China	1.9	7.1
Euro Area	0.3	0.8
Germany	0.3	1.2
France	0.4	0.7
Italy	-0.1	-0.4
UK	0.8	3.1
	IVQ2014/IIIQ2014	IVQ2014/IVQ2013
USA	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.3	2.5
Japan	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.1	-1.0
China	1.7	7.2
Euro Area	0.4	1.0
Germany	0.8	1.7
France	0.2	0.7
Italy	-0.1	-0.4
UK	0.8	3.5
	IQ2015/IVQ2014	IQ2015/IQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.0	3.3
Japan	QOQ: 1.3 SAAR: 5.2	-1.0
China	1.6	7.0
Euro Area	0.6	1.3
Germany	0.2	1.3
France	0.6	1.3
Italy	0.4	0.1
UK	0.3	2.9
	IIQ2015/IQ2015	IIQ2015/IIQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.6	3.0
Japan	QOQ: -0.4 SAAR: -1.7	0.7
China	1.8	7.0
Euro Area	0.4	1.6
Germany	0.5	1.8
France	0.0	1.1
Italy	0.3	0.5
UK	0.4	2.3
	IIIQ2015/IIQ2015	IIIQ2015/IIIQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.0	2.2
Japan	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.7	1.8
China	1.8	6.9
Euro Area	0.3	1.6
Germany	0.2	1.8
France	0.4	1.1
Italy	0.2	0.8
UK	0.4	2.0
	IVQ2015/IIIQ2015	IVQ2015/IVQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.2 SAAR: 0.9	1.9
Japan	QOQ: -0.4 SAAR: -1.8	0.7
China	1.5	6.8
Euro Area	0.4	1.7
Germany	0.4	2.1
France	0.4	1.3
Italy	0.2	1.1
UK	0.7	1.8
	IQ2016/IVQ2015	IQ2016/IQ2015
USA	QOQ: 0.2 SAAR: 0.8	1.6
Japan	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 1.9	0.1
China	1.2	6.7
Euro Area	0.6	1.7
Germany	0.7	1.5
France	0.7	1.3
Italy	0.3	1.0
UK	0.4	2.0
	IIQ2016/IQ2016	IIQ2016/IIQ2015
USA	QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.2	1.2
China	1.8	6.7
Euro Area	0.3	1.6
Germany	0.4	3.1
France	0.0	1.4
Italy	0.0	0.7
UK	0.6	2.2

QOQ: Quarter relative to prior quarter; SAAR: seasonally adjusted annual rate

Source: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.census.gov/aboutus/stat_int.html

Table V-4 provides two types of data: growth of exports and imports in the latest available months and in the past 12 months; and contributions of net trade (exports less imports) to growth of real GDP.

• Japan. Japan provides the most worrisome data (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/global-decline-of-values-of-financial.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/07/valuation-of-risk-financial-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/fluctuating-financial-asset-valuations.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/dollar-revaluation-squeezing-corporate.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/patience-on-interest-rate-increases.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/monetary-policy-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/valuation-risks-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/interest-rate-risks-world-inflation.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/global-financial-risk-world-inflation.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations_8763.html http://cmpass ocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/paring-quantitative-easing-policy-and_4699.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/thirty-one-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/12/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_24.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/11/contraction-of-united-states-real_25.html and for GDP http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what_13.html). In Jun 2016, Japan’s exports decreased 7.8 percent in 12 months while imports decreased 18.8 percent. The second part of Table V-4 shows that net trade deducted 1.7 percentage points from Japan’s growth of GDP in IIQ2012, deducted 1.9 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2012 and deducted 0.5 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2012. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2012, 1.9 percentage points in IQ2013 and deducted 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2013. In IIIQ2013, net trade deducted 1.5 percentage points from GDP growth in Japan. Net trade ducted 1.9 percentage points from GDP growth in Japan in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 0.8 percentage points from GDP growth of Japan in IQ2014. Net trade added 3.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2014. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2014 and added 1.5 percentage points in IVQ2014. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2015 and deducted 1.4 percentage points in IIQ2015. Net trade added 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2015 and added 0.3 percentage points in IVQ2015. Net trade added 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2016.

• China. In Jul 2016, China exports decreased 4.4 percent relative to a year earlier and imports decreased 12.5 percent.
• Germany. Germany’s exports increased 0.3 percent in the month of Jun 2016 and increased 1.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2016. Germany’s imports increased 1.0 percent in the month of Jun 2016 and increased 0.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2016. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to growth of GDP in IQ2012, contributed 0.4 percentage points in IIQ2012, contributed 0.3 percentage points in IIIQ2012, deducted 0.5 percentage points in IVQ2012, deducted 0.3 percentage points in IQ2013 and added 0.1 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded deducted 0.5 percentage points from Germany’s GDP growth in IIIQ2013 and added 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2014. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2014 and added 0.5 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.3 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.5 percentage points in IVQ2015 and deducted 0.1 percentage points in IQ2016.
• United Kingdom. Net trade contributed 0.7 percentage points in IIQ2013. In IIIQ2013, net trade deducted 1.7 percentage points from UK growth. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to UK value added in IVQ2013. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to UK value added in IQ2014 and 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2014 and added 0.3 percentage points in IVQ2014. Net traded deducted 0.6 percentage points from growth in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.5 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016.
• France. France’s exports decreased 1.8 percent in Jun 2016 while imports increased 0.1 percent. France’s exports decreased 7.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2016 and imports decreased 5.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Net traded added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IIIQ2012 and 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IQ2013 and added 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2013, deducting 1.7 percentage points in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IVQ2013 and deducted 0.1 percentage points in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IIQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to France’s GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.6 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015 and deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.3 percentage points to GDP in IIQ2016.
• United States. US exports increased 0.3 percent in Jun 2016 and goods exports decreased 5.5 percent in Jan-Jun 2016 relative to a year earlier. Imports increased 1.9 percent in Jun 2016 and goods imports decreased 3.3 percent in Jan-Jun 2016 relative to a year earlier. Net trade added 0.28 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2012 and added 0.16 percentage points in IIIQ2012 and 0.58 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade added 0.30 percentage points to US GDP growth in IQ2013 and deducted 0.21 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded added 0.13 percentage points to US GDP growth in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 1.29 percentage points to US GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 1.16 percentage points from US GDP growth in IQ2014 and deducted 0.41 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade added 0.50 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2014. Net trade deducted 1.14 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 1.65 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.08 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.52 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.45 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015. Net trade added 0.01 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.23 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Industrial production increased 0.6 percent in Jun 2016 and decreased 0.3 percent in May 2016 after increasing 0.5 percent in Apr 2016, with all data seasonally adjusted. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System conducted the annual revision of industrial production released on Apr 1, 2016 (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/revisions/Current/DefaultRev.htm):

“The Federal Reserve has revised its index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization.[1] Total IP is now reported to have increased about 2 1/2 percent per year, on average, from 2011 through 2014 before falling 1 1/2 percent in 2015.[2] Relative to earlier reports, the current rates of change are lower, especially for 2014 and 2015. Total IP is now estimated to have returned to its pre-recession peak in November 2014, six months later than previously estimated. Capacity for total industry is now reported to have increased about 2 percent in 2014 and 2015 after having increased only 1 percent in 2013. Compared with the previously reported estimates, the gain in 2015 is 1/2 percentage point higher, and the gain in 2013 is 1/2 percentage point lower. Industrial capacity is expected to increase 1/2 percent in 2016.”

Manufacturing fell 22.3 from the peak in Jun 2007 to the trough in Apr 2009 and increased 16.0 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Dec 2015. Manufacturing in Jun 2016 is lower by 6.1 percent relative to the peak in Jun 2007. The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IIQ2016 would have accumulated to 28.6 percent. GDP in IIQ2016 would be $19,279.5 billion (in constant dollars of 2009) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $2704.4 billion than actual $16,575.1 billion. There are about two trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 23.6 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 14.0 percent of the effective labor force (Section I and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/financial-turbulence-twenty-four.html). US GDP in IIQ2016 is 14.0 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $14,991.8 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $16,575.1 billion in IIQ2016 or 10.6 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.2 percent. Professor John H. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. Cochrane (2016May02) measures GDP growth in the US at average 3.5 percent per year from 1950 to 2000 and only at 1.76 percent per year from 2000 to 2015 with only at 2.0 percent annual equivalent in the current expansion. Cochrane (2016May02) proposes drastic changes in regulation and legal obstacles to private economic activity. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 3.2 percent per year from Jun 1919 to Jun 2016. Growth at 3.2 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output from 108.2316 in Dec 2007 to 141.4587 in Jun 2016. The actual index NSA in Jun 2016 is 105.6646, which is 25.3 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 2.1 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2015. Using trend growth of 2.1 percent per year, the index would increase to 129.1203 in Jun 2016. The output of manufacturing at 105.6646 in Jun 2016 is 18.2 percent below trend under this alternative calculation.

Table V-4, Growth of Trade and Contributions of Net Trade to GDP Growth, ∆% and % Points

	Exports M ∆%	Exports 12 M ∆%	Imports M ∆%	Imports 12 M ∆%
USA	0.3 Jun	-5.5 Jan-Jun	1.9 Jun	-3.3 Jan-Jun
Japan		Jun 2016 -7.8 May 2016 -11.3 Apr 2016 -10.1 Mar 2016 -6.8 Feb 2016 -4.0 Jan 2016 -12.9 Dec 2015 -8.0 Nov 2015 -3.3 Oct 2015 -2.1 Sep 2015 0.6 Aug 3.1 Jul 2015 7.6 Jun 2015 9.5 May 2015 2.4 Apr 8.0 Mar 8.5 Feb 2.4 Jan 17.0 Dec 12.9 Nov 4.9 Oct 9.6 Sep 6.9 Aug -1.3 Jul 3.9 Jun -2.0 May 2014 -2.7 Apr 2014 5.1 Mar 2014 1.8 Feb 2014 9.5 Jan 2014 9.5 Dec 2013 15.3 Nov 2013 18.4 Oct 2013 18.6 Sep 2013 11.5 Aug 2013 14.7 Jul 2013 12.2 Jun 2013 7.4 May 2013 10.1 Apr 2013 3.8 Mar 2013 1.1 Feb 2013 -2.9 Jan 2013 6.4 Dec -5.8 Nov -4.1 Oct -6.5 Sep -10.3 Aug -5.8 Jul -8.1		Jun 2016 -18.8 May 2016 -13.8 Apr 2016 -23.3 Mar 2016 -14.9 Feb 2016 -14.2 Jan 2016 -18.0 Dec 2015 -18.0 Nov 2015 -10.2 Oct 2015 -13.4 Sep 2015 -11.1 Aug -3.1 Jul 2015 -3.2 Jun 2015 -2.9 May 2015 -8.7 Apr -4.2 Mar -14.5 Feb -3.6 Jan -9.0 Dec 1.9 Nov -1.7 Oct 2.7 Sep 6.2 Aug -1.5 Jul 2.3 Jun 8.4 May 2014 -3.6 Apr 2013 3.4 Mar 2014 18.1 Feb 2014 9.0 Jan 2014 25.0 Dec 2013 24.7 Nov 2013 21.1 Oct 2013 26.1 Sep 2013 16.5 Aug 2013 16.0 Jul 2013 19.6 Jun 2013 11.8 May 2013 10.0 Apr 2013 9.4 Mar 2013 5.5 Feb 2013 7.3 Jan 2013 7.3 Dec 1.9 Nov 0.8 Oct -1.6 Sep 4.1 Aug -5.4 Jul 2.1
China	Jan-Dec 2015 -2.8	2016 Jul -4.4 Jun -4.8 May -4.1 Apr -1.8 Mar 11.5 Feb -25.4 Jan -11.2 2015 -1.4 Dec -6.8 Nov -6.9 Oct -3.7 Sep -5.5 Aug -8.3 Jul 2.8 Jun -2.5 May -6.4 Apr -15.0 Mar 48.3 Feb -3.3 Jan 2014 9.7 Dec 4.7 Nov 11.6 Oct 15.3 Sep 9.4 Aug 14.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 7.0 May 0.9 Apr -6.6 Mar -18.1 Feb 10.6 Jan 2013 4.3 Dec 12.7 Nov 5.6 Oct -0.3 Sep 7.2 Aug 5.1 Jul -3.1 Jun 1.0 May 14.7 Apr 10.0 Mar 21.8 Feb 25.0 Jan	Jan-Dec 2015 -14.1	2016 Jul -12.5 Jun -2.8 May -0.4 Apr -10.6 Mar -7.6 Feb -13.8 Jan -18.8 2015 -7.6 Dec -8.7 Nov -18.8 Oct -20.4 Sep -13.8 Aug -8.1 Jul -6.1 Jun -17.6 May -12.7 Mar -20.5 Feb -19.9 Jan 2014 -2.4 Dec -6.7 Nov 4.6 Oct 7.0 Sep -2.4 Aug -1.6 Jul 5.5 Jun -1.6 May -0.8 Apr -11.3 Mar 10.1 Feb 10.0 Jan 2013 8.3 Dec 5.3 Nov 7.6 Oct 7.4 Sep 7.0 Aug 10.9 Jul -0.7 Jun -0.3 May 16.8 Apr 14.1 Mar -15.2 Feb 28.8 Jan
Euro Area	-0.9 12-M Apr	-1.0 Jan-Apr	-5.4 12-M Apr	-3.4 Jan-Apr
Germany	0.3 Jun CSA	1.2 Jun	1.0 Jun CSA	0.3 Jun
France Jun	-1.8	-7.5	0.1	-5.1
Italy Jun	-0.4	-0.5	0.0	-6.1
UK	2.4 Jun	2.7 Apr 16-Jun 16 /Apr 15-Jun 15	4.0 Jun	7.2 Apr 16-Jun 16 /Apr 15-Jun 15
Net Trade % Points GDP Growth	Points
USA	IIQ2016 0.23 IQ2016 0.01 IVQ2015 -0.45 IIIQ2015 -0.52 IIQ2015 -0.08 IQ2015 -1.65 IVQ2014 -1.14 IIIQ2014 0.50 IIQ2014 -0.41 IQ2014 -1.16 IVQ2013 1.29 IIIQ2013 0.13 IIQ2013 -0.21 IQ2013 0.30 IVQ2012 +0.58 IIIQ2012 0.16 IIQ2012 0.28 IQ2012 -0.02
Japan	0.4 IQ2012 -1.7 IIQ2012 -1.9 IIIQ2012 -0.5 IVQ2012 1.9 IQ2013 -0.3 IIQ2013 -1.5 IIIQ2013 -1.9 IVQ2013 -0.8 IQ2014 3.5 IIQ2014 0.2 IIIQ2014 1.5 IVQ2014 0.4 IQ2015 -1.4 IIQ2015 0.5 IIIQ2015 0.3 IVQ2015 0.7 IQ2016
Germany	IQ2012 0.8 IIQ2012 0.4 IIIQ2012 0.3 IVQ2012 -0.5 IQ2013 -0.3 IIQ2013 0.1 IIIQ2013 -0.5 IVQ2013 0.5 IQ2014 0.0 IIQ2014 0.2 IIIQ2014 0.5 IVQ2014 -0.3 IQ2015 -0.2 IIQ2015 0.6 IIIQ2015 -0.3 IVQ2015 -0.5 IQ2016 -0.1
France	0.1 IIIQ2012 0.1 IVQ2012 -0.1 IQ2013 0.3 IIQ2013 -1.7 IIIQ2013 0.1 IVQ2013 -0.1 IQ2014 -0.2 IIQ2014 -0.2 IIIQ2014 0.2 IVQ2014 -0.2 IQ2015 0.4 IIQ2015 -0.6 IIIQ2015 -0.6 IVQ2015 -0.2 IQ2016 0.3 IIQ2016
UK	0.7 IIQ2013 -1.7 IIIQ2013 0.1 IVQ2013 0.8 IQ2014 0.3 IIQ2014 -0.7 IIIQ2014 0.3 IVQ2014 -0.6 IQ2015 0.6 IIQ2015 -0.5 IIIQ2015 0.1 IVQ2015 -0.2 IQ2016

Sources: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/

The geographical breakdown of exports and imports of Japan with selected regions and countries is in Table V-5 for Jun 2016. The share of Asia in Japan’s trade is close to one-half for 52.3 percent of exports and 50.8 percent of imports. Within Asia, exports to China are 17.3 percent of total exports and imports from China 25.9 percent of total imports. While exports to China decreased 10.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2016, imports from China decreased 12.4 percent. The largest export market for Japan in Jun 2016 is the US with share of 20.2 percent of total exports, which is close to that of China, and share of imports from the US of 11.2 percent in total imports. Japan’s exports to the US decreased 6.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2016 and imports from the US decreased 17.2 percent. Western Europe has share of 11.4 percent in Japan’s exports and of 13.2 percent in imports. Rates of growth of exports of Japan in Jun 2016 are minus 6.5 percent for exports to the US, minus 35.1 percent for exports to Brazil and 1.4 percent for exports to Germany. Comparisons relative to 2011 may have some bias because of the effects of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Deceleration of growth in China and the US and threat of recession in Europe can reduce world trade and economic activity. Growth rates of imports in the 12 months ending in Jun 2016 are mixed. Imports from Asia decreased 15.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2016 while imports from China decreased 12.4 percent. Data are in millions of yen, which may have effects of recent depreciation of the yen relative to the United States dollar (USD) and revaluation of the dollar relative to the euro.

Table V-5, Japan, Value and 12-Month Percentage Changes of Exports and Imports by Regions and Countries, ∆% and Millions of Yen

Jun 2016	Exports Millions Yen	12 months ∆%	Imports Millions Yen	12 months ∆%
Total	6,025,460	-7.4	5,332,625	-18.8
Asia	3,150,518 % Total 52.3	-10.6	2,708,921 % Total 50.8	-15.1
China	1,043,810 % Total 17.3	-10.0	1,378,862 % Total 25.9	-12.4
USA	1,217,963 % Total 20.2	-6.5	599,588 % Total 11.2	-17.2
Canada	75,248	-1.0	87,300	-15.2
Brazil	27,223	-35.1	58,728	-21.4
Mexico	94,829	-6.6	43,046	-11.6
Western Europe	684,152 % Total 11.4	-1.1	704,359% Total 13.2	-7.5
Germany	161,680	1.4	183,756	-8.9
France	51,276	5.1	80,873	-22.9
UK	127,300	3.7	53,117	-8.5
Middle East	219,772	-17.8	540,235	-34.7
Australia	131,961	-6.1	222,614	-32.4

Source: Japan, Ministry of Finance http://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/info/index_e.htm

World trade projections of the IMF are in Table V-6. There is decreasing growth of the volume of world trade of goods and services from 3.5 percent in 2014 to 2.8 percent in 2015 and 3.1 percent in 2016. Growth improves to 4.2 percent on average from 2017 to 2019. World trade would be slower for advanced economies while emerging and developing economies (EMDE) experience faster growth. World economic slowdown would be more challenging with lower growth of world trade.

Table V-6, IMF, Projections of World Trade, USD Billions, USD/Barrel and Annual ∆%

	2014	2015	2016	Average ∆% 2017-2021
World Trade Volume (Goods and Services)	3.5	2.8	3.1	4.2
Exports Goods & Services	3.4	2.8	3.0	4.0
Imports Goods & Services	3.6	2.9	3.3	4.3
Average Oil Price USD/Barrel	96.25	50.79	34.75	Average ∆% 2008-2017 77.37
Average Annual ∆% Export Unit Value of Manufactures	-0.7	-4.0	-2.7	Average ∆% 2008-2017 0.1
Exports of Goods & Services	2014	2015	2016	Average ∆% 2008-2017
EMDE	3.1	1.7	3.8	3.9
G7	3.5	3.4	2.5	2.5
Imports Goods & Services
EMDE	3.7	0.5	3.0	4.6
G7	3.5	4.3	3.4	2.2
Terms of Trade of Goods & Services
EMDE	-0.4	-3.9	-2.3	-0.2
G7	0.3	1.9	1.1	0.1
Terms of Trade of Goods
EMDE	-0.4	-4.1	-1.9	-0.2
G7	0.1	1.8	1.2	-0.1

Notes: Commodity Price Index includes Fuel and Non-fuel Prices; Commodity Industrial Inputs Price includes agricultural raw materials and metal prices; Oil price is average of WTI, Brent and Dubai

Source: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook databank

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/01/weodata/index.aspx

The JP Morgan Global All-Industry Output Index of the JP Morgan Manufacturing and Services PMI^™, produced by JP Morgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM, with high association with world GDP, increased to 51.4 in Jul from 51.2 in Jun, indicating expansion at the same rate (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/1b6e78e47ff44fb5b53dbd853108470b). This index has remained above the contraction territory of 50.0 during 45 consecutive months. The employment index increased from 51.1 in Jun to 51.2 in Jul with input prices rising at slower rate, new orders increasing at faster rate and output increasing at the faster rate (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/1b6e78e47ff44fb5b53dbd853108470b). David Hensley, Director of Global Economic Coordination at JP Morgan, finds moderate growth (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/1b6e78e47ff44fb5b53dbd853108470b). The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI^™, produced by JP Morgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM, increased to 51.0 in Jul from 50.4 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/6e1c406f48bc4f2484a1e453afe2309d). New export orders increased. David Hensley, Director of Global Economic Coordination at JP Morgan, moderate improvement (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/6e1c406f48bc4f2484a1e453afe2309d). The Markit Brazil Composite Output Index increased from 42.3 in Jun to 46.4 in Jul, indicating contraction in activity of Brazil’s private sector (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/714bc85dedb74d469a83b4e9bff338ef). The Markit Brazil Services Business Activity index, compiled by Markit, increased from 41.4 in May to 45.6 in Jun, indicating contracting services activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/714bc85dedb74d469a83b4e9bff338ef). Pollyanna de Lima, Economist at Markit, finds recovery conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/714bc85dedb74d469a83b4e9bff338ef). The Markit Brazil Purchasing Managers’ Index^TM (PMI^™) increased from 43.2 in Jun to 46.0 in Jul, indicating milder contraction in manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/0b13f272a80d48b6b7ee37c8b6923e46). Pollyanna De Lima, Economist at Markit, finds improvement in contraction in manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/0b13f272a80d48b6b7ee37c8b6923e46).

VA United States. The Markit Flash US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) seasonally adjusted increased to 52.9 in Jul from 51.3 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/24075a8e417d4c29bd7c747031da681e). New export orders increased. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds improvement with challenges (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/24075a8e417d4c29bd7c747031da681e). The Markit Flash US Services PMI™ Business Activity Index decreased from 51.4 in Jun to 50.9 in Jul (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/a1ec8ce07b9a4f5d90188116b110efe9). The Markit Flash US Composite PMI™ Output Index increased from 51.2 in Jun to 51.5 in Jul. Andrew Harker, Senior Economist at Markit, finds that the surveys are consistent with subdued growth (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/a1ec8ce07b9a4f5d90188116b110efe9). The Markit US Composite PMI™ Output Index of Manufacturing and Services increased to 51.8 in Jul from 51.2 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/925ec682ae9d4a8abe9306ba9a83d61b). The Markit US Services PMI™ Business Activity Index did not change from 51.4 in Jun to 51.4 in Jul (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/925ec682ae9d4a8abe9306ba9a83d61b). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds the indexes suggesting annual growth at 1.0 percent in IIIQ2016 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/925ec682ae9d4a8abe9306ba9a83d61b). The Markit US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) decreased to 52.9 in Jul from 51.3 in Jun, which indicates expansion at slower rate (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/efc784668bc84625b907720cf82a2ff9). New foreign orders increased. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds improving factory output (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/efc784668bc84625b907720cf82a2ff9). The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Report on Business^® decreased 0.6-percentage points from 53.2 in Jun to 52.6 in Jul, which indicates slower expansion (https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/about/MediaRoom/newsreleasedetail.cfm?ItemNumber=30531). The index of new orders decreased 0.1 percentage points from 57.0 in Jun to 56.9 in Jul. The index of new exports decreased 1.0 percentage points from 53.5 in Jun to 52.5 in Jul, expanding at the slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report on Business^® PMI decreased 1.0 percentage points from 56.5 in Jun to 55.5 in Jul, indicating growth of business activity/production during 84 consecutive months, while the index of new orders increased 0.4 percentage points from 59.9 in Jun to 60.3 in Jul (https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm?navItemNumber=30533). Table USA provides the country economic indicators for the US.

Table USA, US Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index	Jun 12 months NSA ∆%: 1.0; ex food and energy ∆%: 2.3 Jun month SA ∆%: 0.2; ex food and energy ∆%: 0.2 Blog 7/17/16
Producer Price Index	Finished Goods Jun 12-month NSA ∆%: -2.0; ex food and energy ∆% 1.2 Jun month SA ∆% = 0.8; ex food and energy ∆%: 0.2 Final Demand Jun 12-month NSA ∆%: 0.3; ex food and energy ∆% 1.3 Jun month SA ∆% = 0.5; ex food and energy ∆%: 0.4 Blog 7/17/16
PCE Inflation	Jun 12-month NSA ∆%: headline 0.9; ex food and energy ∆% 1.6 Blog 8/7/16
Employment Situation	Household Survey: Jul Unemployment Rate SA 4.9% Blog calculation People in Job Stress Jul: 23.6 million NSA, 14.0% of Labor Force Establishment Survey: Jul Nonfarm Jobs +255,000; Private +217,000 jobs created  Jun 12-month Average Hourly Earnings Inflation Adjusted ∆%: 1.5 Blog 8/7/16
Nonfarm Hiring	Nonfarm Hiring fell from 63.5 million in 2006 to 58.6 million in 2014 or by 4.9 million and to 61.7 million in 2015 or by 1.8 million Private-Sector Hiring Jun 2016 5.439 million lower by 3.1 percent than 5.614 million in Jun 2006 Blog 8/14/16
GDP Growth	BEA Revised National Income Accounts IQ2012/IQ2011 ∆%: 2.8 IIQ2012/IIQ2011 2.5 IIIQ2012/IIIQ2011 2.4 IVQ2012/IVQ2011 1.3 IQ2013/IQ2012 1.3 IIQ2013/IIQ2012 1.0 IIIQ2013/IIIQ2012 1.7 IVQ2013/IVQ2012 2.7 IQ2014/IQ2013 1.6 IIQ2014/IIQ2013 2.4 IIIQ2014/IIIQ2013 2.9 IVQ2014/IVQ2013 2.5 IQ2015/IQ2014 3.3 IIQ2015/IIQ2014 3.0 IIIQ2015/IIIQ2014 2.2 IVQ2015/IVQ2014 1.9 IQ2016/IQ2015 1.6 IIQ2016/IIQ2015 1.2 IQ2012 SAAR 2.7 IIQ2012 SAAR 1.9 IIIQ2012 SAAR 0.5 IVQ2012 SAAR 0.1 IQ2013 SAAR 2.8 IIQ2013 SAAR 0.8 IIIQ2013 SAAR 3.1 IVQ2013 SAAR 4.0 IQ2014 SAAR -1.2 IIQ2014 SAAR 4.0 IIIQ2014 SAAR 5.0 IVQ2014 SAAR 2.3 IQ2015 SAAR 2.0 IIQ2015 SAAR: 2.6 IIIQ2015 SAAR: 2.0 IVQ2015 SAAR: 0.9 IQ2016 SAAR: 0.8 IIQ2016 SAAR: 1.2 Blog 7/31/16
Real Private Fixed Investment	SAAR IIQ2016 ∆% -3.2 IVQ2007 to IIQ2016: 6.9% Blog 7/31/16
Corporate Profits	IQ2016 SAAR: Corporate Profits 1.8; Undistributed Profits 4.5 Blog 7/3/16
Personal Income and Consumption	Jun month ∆% SA Real Disposable Personal Income (RDPI) SA ∆% 0.1 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (RPCE): 0.3 12-month Jun NSA ∆%: RDPI: 2.2; RPCE ∆%: 2.8 Blog 8/7/16
Quarterly Services Report	IQ16/IQ15 NSA ∆%: Information 5.8 Financial & Insurance 3.1 Earlier Data: Blog 3/22/15
Employment Cost Index	Compensation Private IIQ2016 SA ∆%: 0.6 Jun 12 months ∆%: 2.4 Earlier Data: Blog 2/1/15
Industrial Production	Jun month SA ∆%: 0.6 Jun 12 months SA ∆%: -0.7 Manufacturing Jun SA 0.4 ∆% Jun 12 months SA ∆% 0.4, NSA 0.5 Capacity Utilization: 75.4 Blog 7/24/16
Productivity and Costs	Nonfarm Business Productivity IIQ2016∆% SAAE -0.5; IIQ2016/IIQ2015 ∆% -0.4; Unit Labor Costs SAAE IIQ2016 ∆% 2.0; IIQ2016/IIQ2015 ∆%: 2.1 Blog 8/14/16
New York Fed Manufacturing Index	General Business Conditions From Jun 6.09 to Jul 0.55 New Orders: From Jun 10.9 to Jul -1.82 Blog 7/24/16
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index	General Index from Jun 4.7 to Jul -2.9 New Orders from Jun minus 3.0 to Jul 11.8 Blog 7/24/16
Manufacturing Shipments and Orders	Jun Orders SA ∆% -1.5 Ex Transport 0.4 Jan-Jun 16/Jan-Jun 15 NSA New Orders ∆% minus 2.6 Ex transport minus 3.6 Earlier data: Blog 4/5/15
Durable Goods	Jun New Orders SA ∆%: minus 4.0; ex transport ∆%: minus 0.5 Jan-Jun 16/Jan-Jun 15 New Orders NSA ∆%: 0.0; ex transport ∆% -1.1 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15
Sales of New Motor Vehicles	Jul 2016 10,167,064; Jul 2015 10,032,521. Jul 16 SAAR 17.88 million, Jun 16 SAAR 16.74 million, Jul 2015 SAAR 17.59 million Blog 8/7/16
Sales of Merchant Wholesalers	Jan-Jun 2016/Jan-Jun 2015 NSA ∆%: Total -1.9; Durable Goods: minus -0.2; Nondurable Goods: -3.4 EARLIER DATA: Blog 4/12/15
Sales and Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers	Jun 16 12-M NSA ∆%: Sales Total Business 0.5; Manufacturers -3.7 Retailers 5.6; Merchant Wholesalers 0.2 Blog 8/14/16
Sales for Retail and Food Services	Jan-Jul 2016/Jan-Jul 2015 ∆%: Retail and Food Services 2.8; Retail ∆% 2.3 Blog 8/14/16
Value of Construction Put in Place	SAAR month SA Jun ∆%: minus 0.6 Jan-Jun 16/Jan-Jun 15 NSA: 6.2 Earlier Data: Blog 4/5/15
Case-Shiller Home Prices	May 2016/ May 2015 ∆% NSA: 10 Cities 4.4; 20 Cities: 5.2; National: 5.0 ∆% May SA: 10 Cities -0.2 ; 20 Cities: -0.1 Blog 7/31/16
FHFA House Price Index Purchases Only	May SA ∆% 0.2; 12 month NSA ∆%: 5.6 Blog 7/31/16
New House Sales	Jun 2016 month SAAR ∆%: 3.5 Jan-Jun 2016/Jan-Jun 2015 NSA ∆%: 10.8 Blog 7/31/16
Housing Starts and Permits	Jun Starts month SA ∆% 4.8; Permits ∆%: 1.5 Jan-Jun 2016/Jan-Jun 2015 NSA ∆% Starts 7.1; Permits  ∆% -1.1 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Rate of Homeownership	IIQ2016: 62.9 Blog 7/31/16
Trade Balance	Balance Jun SA -$44,510 million versus May -$40,956 million Exports Jun SA ∆%: 0.3 Imports Jun SA ∆%: 1.9 Goods Exports Jan-Jun 2016/Jan-Jun 2015 NSA ∆%: minus 5.5 Goods Imports Jan-Jun 2016/Jan-Jun 2015 NSA ∆%: minus 3.3 Blog 8/14/16
Export and Import Prices	Jul 12-month NSA ∆%: Imports -3.7; Exports -3.0 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Consumer Credit	Jun ∆% annual rate: Total 4.1; Revolving 9.7; Nonrevolving 2.1 Earlier Data: Blog 5/10/15
Net Foreign Purchases of Long-term Treasury Securities	May Net Foreign Purchases of Long-term US Securities: minus $91.5 billion Major Holders of Treasury Securities: China $1244.0 billion; Japan $1133.2 billion; Total Foreign US Treasury Holdings Nov $6208.3 billion Blog 7/24/16
Treasury Budget	Fiscal Year 2016/2015 ∆% Jul: Receipts 0.2; Outlays 1.7; Individual Income Taxes -0.4 Deficit Fiscal Year 2011 $1,300 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2012 $1,087 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2013 $680 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2014 $485 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2015 $438 billion Blog 8/14/2016
CBO Budget and Economic Outlook	2012 Deficit $1087 B 6.8% GDP Debt $11,281 B 70.4% GDP 2013 Deficit $680 B, 4.1% GDP Debt $11,983 B 72.6% GDP 2014 Deficit $485 B 2.8% GDP Debt $12,780 B 74.4% GDP 2015 Deficit $438 B 2.5% GDP Debt $13,117 B 73.6% GDP 2026 Deficit $1,343B, 4.9% GDP Debt $23,672B 85.6% GDP 2046: Long-term Debt/GDP 141.1% Blog 8/26/12 11/18/12 2/10/13 9/22/13 2/16/14 8/24/14 9/14/14 3/1/15 6/21/15 1/3/16 4/10/16 7/24/16
Commercial Banks Assets and Liabilities	Jun 2016 SAAR ∆%: Securities 7.1 Loans 5.6 Cash Assets -18.4 Deposits 7.0 Blog 7/24/16
Flow of Funds Net Worth of Families and Nonprofits	IQ2016 ∆ since 2007 Assets +$21,657.7 BN Nonfinancial 3355.5 BN Real estate $2407.3 BN Financial +18,302.1 BN Net Worth +$21,509.6 BN Blog 6/26/16
Current Account Balance of Payments	IQ2016 -103,135 MM % GDP 2.8 Blog 7/10/16
Collapse of United States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation	Blog 7/24/16
IMF View	World Real Economic Growth 2016 ∆% 3.2 Blog 4/24/16
Income, Poverty and Health Insurance in the United States	46.657 Million Below Poverty in 2014, 14.8% of Population Median Family Income CPI-2014 Adjusted $53,657 in 2014 back to 1996 Levels Uncovered by Health Insurance 32.968 Million in 2014 Blog 10/11/15
Monetary Policy and Cyclical Valuation of Risk Financial Assets	Blog 1/17/2016

Links to blog comments in Table USA: 8/7/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/global-competitive-easing-or.html

7/31/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/business-fixed-investment-has-been-soft.html

7/24/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/unresolved-us-balance-of-payments.html

7/17/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/oscillating-valuations-of-risk.html

7/10/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

7/3/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/financial-asset-values-rebound-from.html

6/26/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/of-course-considerable-uncertainty.html

6/12/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/considerable-uncertainty-about-economic.html

6/5/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/financial-turbulence-twenty-four.html

5/1/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/economic-activity-appears-to-have.html

4/10/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/04/proceeding-cautiously-in-reducing.html

1/17/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/unconventional-monetary-policy-and.html

1/3/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/weakening-equities-and-dollar.html

10/11/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/10/interest-rate-policy-uncertainty-imf.html

6/21/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/fluctuating-financial-asset-valuations.html

5/10/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/quite-high-equity-valuations-and.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html

9/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitics-monetary-policy-and.html

8/24/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/monetary-policy-world-inflation-waves.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

9/22/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

2/10/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/united-states-unsustainable-fiscal.html

Table VA-1 provides the value of total sales of US business (manufacturers, retailers and merchant wholesalers) and monthly and 12-month percentage changes. Sales of manufacturers increased 0.7 percent in Jun and increased 0.1 percent in May, decreasing 3.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2016. Sales of retailers increased 0.9 percent in Jun, increased 0.1 percent in May and increased 3.2 percent in 12 months. Sales of merchant wholesalers increased 1.9 percent in Jun, increasing 0.7 percent in May and decreasing 0.6 percent in 12 months. Total business sales increased 1.2 percent in Jun and increased 0.3 percent in May, decreasing 0.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2016.

Table VA-1, US, Percentage Changes for Sales of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers

	Jun 16/May 16 ∆% SA	Jun 2016 Millions of Dollars NSA	May 16/ Apr 16  ∆% SA	Jun 16/ Jun 15 ∆% NSA
Total Business	1.2	1,336,649	0.3	-0.5
Manufacturers	0.7	490,057	0.1	-3.2
Retailers	0.9	408,965	0.1	3.2
Merchant Wholesalers	1.9	467,627	0.7	-0.6

Source: US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/mtis/

Chart VA-1 of the US Census Bureau provides total US sales of manufacturing, retailers and wholesalers seasonally adjusted (SA) in millions of dollars. The series with adjustment evens fluctuations following seasonal patterns. There is sharp recovery from the global recession in a robust trend, which is mixture of price and quantity effects because data are not adjusted for price changes. There is stability in the final segment with subdued prices with data not adjusted for price changes.

Chart VA-1, US, Total Business Sales of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, SA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 1992-Jun 2016

US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/mtis/

Chart VA-2 of the US Census Bureau provides total US sales of manufacturing, retailers and wholesalers not seasonally adjusted (NSA) in millions of dollars. The series without adjustment shows sharp jagged behavior because of monthly fluctuations following seasonal patterns. There is sharp recovery from the global recession in a robust trend, which is mixture of price and quantity effects because data are not adjusted for price changes. There is stability in the final segment with monthly marginal weakness in data without adjustment for price changes.

Chart VA-2, US, Total Business Sales of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, NSA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 1992-Jun 2016

US Census Bureau

http://www.census.gov/mtis/

Businesses added cautiously to inventories to replenish stocks. Retailers’ inventories increased 0.5 percent in Jun 2016 and decreased 0.5 percent in May with growth of 5.6 percent in 12 months, as shown in Table VA-2. Total business increased inventories by 0.2 percent in Jun, increasing 0.2 percent in May and increasing 0.5 percent in 12 months. Inventories sales/ratios of total business continued at a level close to 1.30 under careful management to avoid costs and risks, increasing to 1.40 in Jun 2016. Inventory/sales ratios of manufacturers and retailers are higher than for merchant wholesalers. There is stability in inventory/sales ratios in individual months and relative to a year earlier with increase at the margin.

Table VA-2, US, Percentage Changes for Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers and Inventory/Sales Ratios

Inventory Change	Jun 16 Millions of Dollars NSA	Jun 16/ May 16 ∆% SA	May 16/Apr 16 ∆% SA	Jun 16/Jun 15 ∆% NSA
Total Business	1,795,228	0.2	0.2	0.5
Manufacturers	616,552	-0.1	-0.1	-3.7
Retailers	594,741	0.5	0.5	5.6
Merchant Wholesalers	583,935	0.3	0.2	0.2
Inventory/ Sales Ratio	Jun 16 Millions of Dollars NSA	Jun 2016 SA	May 2016 SA	Jun 2015 SA
Total Business	1,795,228	1.39	1.40	1.37
Manufacturers	616,552	1.35	1.36	1.35
Retailers	594,741	1.50	1.50	1.46
Merchant Wholesalers	583,935	1.33	1.35	1.32

US Census Bureau

http://www.census.gov/mtis/

Chart VA-3 of the US Census Bureau provides total business inventories of manufacturers, retailers and merchant wholesalers seasonally adjusted (SA) in millions of dollars from Jan 1992 to Jun 2016. The impact of the two recessions of 2001 and IVQ2007 to IIQ2009 is evident in the form of sharp reductions in inventories. Inventories have surpassed the peak before the global recession. Data are not adjusted for price changes.

Chart VA-3, US, Total Business Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, SA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 1992-Jun 2016

US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/mtis/

Chart VA-4 provides total business inventories of manufacturers, retailers and merchant wholesalers not seasonally adjusted (NSA) from Jan 1992 to Jun 2016 in millions of dollars. The recessions of 2001 and IVQ2007 to IIQ2009 are evident in the form of sharp reductions of inventories. There is sharp upward trend of inventory accumulation after both recessions. Total business inventories are higher than in the peak before the global recession.

Chart VA-4, US, Total Business Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, NSA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 1992-Jun 2016

US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/mtis/

Inventories follow business cycles. When recession hits sales inventories pile up, declining with expansion of the economy. In a fascinating classic opus, Lloyd Meltzer (1941, 129) concludes:

“The dynamic sequences (i) through (6) were intended to show what types of behavior are possible for a system containing a sales output lag. The following conclusions seem to be the most important:

(i) An economy in which business men attempt to recoup inventory losses will always undergo cyclical fluctuations when equilibrium is disturbed, provided the economy is stable.

This is the pure inventory cycle.

(2) The assumption of stability imposes severe limitations upon the possible size of the marginal propensity to consume, particularly if the coefficient of expectation is positive.

(3) The inventory accelerator is a more powerful de-stabilizer than the ordinary acceleration principle. The difference in stability conditions is due to the fact that the former allows for replacement demand whereas the usual analytical formulation of the latter does not. Thus, for inventories, replacement demand acts as a de-stabilizer. Whether it does so for all types of capital goods is a moot question, but I believe cases may occur in which it does not.

(4) Investment for inventory purposes cannot alter the equilibrium of income, which depends only upon the propensity to consume and the amount of non-induced investment.

(5) The apparent instability of a system containing both an accelerator and a coefficient of expectation makes further investigation of possible stabilizers highly desirable.”

Chart VA-5 shows the increase in the inventory/sales ratios during the recession of 2007-2009. The inventory/sales ratio fell during the expansions. The inventory/sales ratio declined to a trough in 2011, climbed and then stabilized at current levels in 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 with increase into 2015-2016.

Chart VA-5, Total Business Inventories/Sales Ratios 2006 to 2016

Source: US Census Bureau

http://www2.census.gov/mtis/historical/img/mtisbrf.gif

Sales of retail and food services changed 0.0 percent in Jul 2016 after increasing 0.8 percent in Jun 2016 seasonally adjusted (SA), growing 2.8 percent in Jan-Jul 2016 relative to Jan-Jul 2015 not seasonally adjusted (NSA), as shown in Table VA-3. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales decreased 0.3 percent in Jul 2016, increasing 0.9 percent in Jun 2016 SA and increasing 2.8 percent NSA in Jan-Jul 2016 relative to a year earlier. Sales of motor vehicles and parts increased 1.1 percent in Jul 2016 after increasing 0.5 percent in Jun 2016 SA and increasing 2.8 percent NSA in Jan-Jul 2016 relative to a year earlier. Gasoline station sales decreased 2.7 percent SA in Jul 2016 after increasing 2.2 percent in Jun 2016 in oscillating prices of gasoline that are moderating, decreasing 10.4 percent in Jan-Jul 2016 relative to a year earlier.

Table VA-3, US, Percentage Change in Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, ∆%

	Jul/Jun ∆% SA	Jun/May ∆% SA	Jan 2016-Jul 2016 Million Dollars NSA	Jan-Jul 2016 from Jan-Jul 2015 ∆% NSA
Retail and Food Services	0.0	0.8	3,119,531	2.8
Excluding Motor Vehicles and Parts	-0.3	0.9	2,466,998	2.8
Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers	1.1	0.5	652,533	2.8
Retail	0.0	0.9	2,736,588	2.3
Building Materials	-0.5	4.2	207,237	6.4
Food and Beverage	-0.6	0.2	406,608	2.2
Grocery	-0.9	0.2	364,929	2.2
Health & Personal Care Stores	0.1	0.9	190,894	7.1
Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores	-0.5	0.0	137,181	0.2
Gasoline Stations	-2.7	2.2	230,579	-10.4
General Merchandise Stores	-0.1	0.2	372,825	0.2
Food Services & Drinking Places	-0.2	0.3	382,943	6.5

Source: US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/retail/

Chart VA-6 provides monthly percentage changes of sales of retail and food services. There is significant monthly volatility that prevents identification of clear trends.

Chart VA-6, US, Monthly Percentage Change of Retail and Food Services Sales, Jan 1992-Jul 2016

Source: US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/retail/

Chart VA-7 of the US Census Bureau provides total sales of retail trade and food services seasonally adjusted (SA) from Jan 1992 to Jul 2016 in millions of dollars. The impact on sales of the shallow recession of 2001 was much milder than the sharp contraction in the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. There is flattening in the final segment of the series followed by another increase/decrease. Data are not adjusted for price changes.

Chart VA-7, US, Total Sales of Retail Trade and Food Services, SA, Jan 1992-Jul 2016, Millions of Dollars

Source: US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/retail/

Chart VA-8 of the US Census Bureau provides total sales of retail trade and food services not seasonally adjusted (NSA) in millions of dollars from Jan 1992 to Jul 2016. Data are not adjusted for seasonality, which explains sharp jagged behavior, or price changes. There was contraction during the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009 with strong rebound to a higher level and stability followed by strong increase in the final segment.

Chart VA-8, US, Total Sales of Retail Trade and Food Services, NSA, Jan 1992-Jul 2016, Millions of Dollars

Source: US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/retail/

Table IIA1-2 provides additional information required for understanding the deficit/debt situation of the United States. The table is divided into four parts: Treasury budget in the 2016 fiscal year beginning on Oct 1, 2015 and ending on Sep 30, 2016; federal fiscal data for the years from 2009 to 2015; federal fiscal data for the years from 2005 to 2008; and Treasury debt held by the public from 2005 to 2015. Receipts increased 0.2 percent in the cumulative fiscal year 2016 ending in Jul 2016 relative to the cumulative in fiscal year 2015. Individual income taxes decreased 0.4 percent relative to the same fiscal period a year earlier. Outlays increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. There are also receipts, outlays, deficit and debt for fiscal years 2013, 2014 and 2015. Total revenues of the US from 2009 to 2012 accumulate to $9021 billion, or $9.0 trillion, while expenditures or outlays accumulate to $14,115 billion, or $14.1 trillion, with the deficit accumulating to $5094 billion, or $5.1 trillion. Revenues decreased 6.5 percent from $9653 billion in the four years from 2005 to 2008 to $9021 billion in the years from 2009 to 2012. Decreasing revenues were caused by the global recession from IVQ2007 (Dec) to IIQ2009 (Jun) and also by growth of only 2.1 percent on average in the cyclical expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2016. In contrast, the expansion from IQ1983 to IVQ1989 was at the average annual growth rate of 4.5 percent and at 7.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/business-fixed-investment-has-been-soft.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/financial-asset-values-rebound-from.html). Because of mediocre GDP growth, there are 23.6 million unemployed or underemployed in the United States for an effective unemployment/underemployment rate of 14.0 percent (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/global-competitive-easing-or.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html). Weakness of growth and employment creation is analyzed in II Collapse of United States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/unresolved-us-balance-of-payments.html). In contrast with the decline of revenue, outlays or expenditures increased 30.2 percent from $10,839 billion, or $10.8 trillion, in the four years from 2005 to 2008, to $14,115 billion, or $14.1 trillion, in the four years from 2009 to 2012. Increase in expenditures by 30.2 percent while revenue declined by 6.5 percent caused the increase in the federal deficit from $1186 billion in 2005-2008 to $5094 billion in 2009-2012. Federal revenue was 14.9 percent of GDP on average in the years from 2009 to 2012, which is well below 17.4 percent of GDP on average from 1966 to 2015. Federal outlays were 23.3 percent of GDP on average from 2009 to 2012, which is well above 20.2 percent of GDP on average from 1966 to 2015. The lower part of Table IIA1-2 shows that debt held by the public swelled from $5803 billion in 2008 to $13,117 billion in 2015, by $7314 billion or 126.0 percent. Debt held by the public as percent of GDP or economic activity jumped from 39.3 percent in 2008 to 73.6 percent in 2016, which is well above the average of 39.0 percent from 1966 to 2015. The United States faces tough adjustment because growth is unlikely to recover, creating limits on what can be obtained by increasing revenues, while continuing stress of social programs restricts what can be obtained by reducing expenditures.

Table IIA1-2, US, Treasury Budget in Fiscal Year to Date Million Dollars

Jul	Fiscal Year 2016	Fiscal Year 2015	∆%
Receipts	2,678,824	2,672,414	0.2
Outlays	3,192,487	3,137,961	1.7
Deficit	-513,662	-465,548
Individual Income Tax	1,271,490	1,276,630	-0.4
Corporation Income Tax	231,942	266,068	-12.8
Social Insurance	677,835	645,856	5.0
	Receipts	Outlays	Deficit (-), Surplus (+)
$ Billions
Fiscal Year 2015	3,250	3,688	-438
% GDP	18.2	20.7	2.5
Fiscal Year 2014	3,021	3,506	-485
% GDP	17.6	20.4	2.8
Fiscal Year 2013	2,775	3,455	-680
% GDP	16.8	20.9	-4.1
Fiscal Year 2012	2,450	3,537	-1,087
% GDP	15.3	22.1	-6.8
Fiscal Year 2011	2,303	3,603	-1,300
% GDP	15.0	23.4	-8.5
Fiscal Year 2010	2,163	3,457	-1,294
% GDP	14.6	23.4	-8.7
Fiscal Year 2009	2,105	3,518	-1,413
% GDP	14.6	24.4	-9.8
Total 2009-2012	9,021	14,115	-5,094
Average % GDP 2009-2012	14.9	23.3	-8.5
Fiscal Year 2008	2,524	2,983	-459
% GDP	17.1	20.2	-3.1
Fiscal Year 2007	2,568	2,729	-161
% GDP	17.9	19.1	-1.1
Fiscal Year 2006	2,407	2,655	-248
% GDP	17.6	19.4	-1.8
Fiscal Year 2005	2,154	2,472	-318
% GDP	16.7	19.2	-2.5
Total 2005-2008	9,653	10,839	-1,186
Average % GDP 2005-2008	17.3	19.5	-2.1
Debt Held by the Public	Billions of Dollars	Percent of GDP
2005	4,592	35.6
2006	4,829	35.3
2007	5,035	35.2
2008	5,803	39.3
2009	7,545	52.3
2010	9,019	60.9
2011	10,128	65.9
2012	11,281	70.4
2013	11,983	72.6
2014	12,780	74.4
2015	13,117	73.6

Source: http://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/fsreports/rpt/mthTreasStmt/mthTreasStmt_home.htm

CBO (2012NovMBR). CBO (2011AugBEO); Office of Management and Budget 2011. Historical Tables. Budget of the US Government Fiscal Year 2011. Washington, DC: OMB; CBO. 2011JanBEO. Budget and Economic Outlook. Washington, DC, Jan. CBO. 2012AugBEO. Budget and Economic Outlook. Washington, DC, Aug 22. CBO. 2012Jan31. Historical budget data. Washington, DC, Jan 31. CBO. 2012NovCDR. Choices for deficit reduction. Washington, DC. Nov. CBO. 2013HBDFeb5. Historical budget data—February 2013 baseline projections. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Feb 5. CBO. 2013HBDFeb5. Historical budget data—February 2013 baseline projections. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Feb 5. CBO (2013Aug12). 2013AugHBD. Historical budget data—August 2013. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Aug. CBO, Historical Budget Data—February 2014, Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Feb. CBO, Historical budget data—April 2014 release. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Apr. Congressional Budget Office, August 2014 baseline: an update to the budget and economic outlook: 2014 to 2024. Washington, DC, CBO, Aug 27, 2014. CBO, Monthly budget review: summary of fiscal year 2014. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Nov 10, 2014. CBO, The budget and economic outlook: 2015 to 2025. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Jan 26, 2015. https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget_economic_data#3 https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget_economic_data#2

VB Japan. The GDP of Japan grew at 1.0 percent per year on average from 1991 to 2002, with the GDP implicit deflator falling at 0.8 percent per year on average. The average growth rate of Japan’s GDP was 4 percent per year on average from the middle of the 1970s to 1992 (Ito 2004). Low growth in Japan in the 1990s is commonly labeled as “the lost decade” (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 81-115). Table VB-GDP provides yearly growth rates of Japan’s GDP from 1995 to 2015. Growth weakened from 1.9 per cent in 1995 and 2.6 percent in 1996 to contractions of 2.0 percent in 1998 and 0.2 percent in 1999. Growth rates were below 2 percent with exception of 2.3 percent in 2000, 2.4 percent in 2004 and 2.2 percent in 2007. Japan’s GDP contracted sharply by 1.0 percent in 2008 and 5.5 percent in 2009. As in most advanced economies, growth was robust at 4.7 percent in 2010 but mediocre at minus 0.5 percent in 2011 because of the tsunami and 1.7 percent in 2012. Japan’s GDP grew 1.4 percent in 2013 and stagnated in 2014 at 0.0. The GDP of Japan increased 0.5 percent in 2015. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). Japan’s real GDP in calendar year 2015 is 1.0 percent higher than in calendar year 2007. Japan’s real GDP grew 8.0 percent from the trough of 2009 to 2015 at the average yearly rate of 1.3 percent (http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html).

Table VB-GDP, Japan, Yearly Percentage Change of GDP  ∆%

Calendar Year	∆%
1995	1.9
1996	2.6
1997	1.6
1998	-2.0
1999	-0.2
2000	2.3
2001	0.4
2002	0.3
2003	1.7
2004	2.4
2005	1.3
2006	1.7
2007	2.2
2008	-1.0
2009	-5.5
2010	4.7
2011	-0.5
2012	1.7
2013	1.4
2014	0.0
2015	0.5

Source: Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html

Table VB-BOJF provides the forecasts of economic activity and inflation in Japan by the majority of members of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, which is part of their Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf) with changes on Jul 21, 2015 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k150121a.pdf). For fiscal 2015, the forecast is of growth of GDP between 1.5 to 2.1 percent, with the all items CPI less fresh food 0.2 to 1.2 to 3.3 percent (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf). The critical difference is forecast of the CPI excluding fresh food of 0.2 to 1.2 percent in 2015 and 1.2 to 2.2 percent in 2016 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf). Consumer price inflation in Japan excluding fresh food was minus 0.4 percent in Mar 2014 and 2.2 percent in 12 months (http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1581.htm), significantly because of the increase of the tax on value added of consumption in Apr 2014. The new monetary policy of the Bank of Japan aims to increase inflation to 2 percent. These forecasts are biannual in Apr and Oct. The Cabinet Office, Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan released on Jan 22, 2013, a “Joint Statement of the Government and the Bank of Japan on Overcoming Deflation and Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130122c.pdf) with the important change of increasing the inflation target of monetary policy from 1 percent to 2 percent:

“The Bank of Japan conducts monetary policy based on the principle that the policy shall be aimed at achieving price stability, thereby contributing to the sound development of the national economy, and is responsible for maintaining financial system stability. The Bank aims to achieve price stability on a sustainable basis, given that there are various factors that affect prices in the short run.

The Bank recognizes that the inflation rate consistent with price stability on a sustainable basis will rise as efforts by a wide range of entities toward strengthening competitiveness and growth potential of Japan's economy make progress. Based on this recognition, the Bank sets the price stability target at 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index.

Under the price stability target specified above, the Bank will pursue monetary easing and aim to achieve this target at the earliest possible time. Taking into consideration that it will take considerable time before the effects of monetary policy permeate the economy, the Bank will ascertain whether there is any significant risk to the sustainability of economic growth, including from the accumulation of financial imbalances.”

The Bank of Japan also provided explicit analysis of its view on price stability in a “Background note regarding the Bank’s thinking on price stability” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/data/rel130123a1.pdf http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130123a.htm/). The Bank of Japan also amended “Principal terms and conditions for the Asset Purchase Program” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130122a.pdf): “Asset purchases and loan provision shall be conducted up to the maximum outstanding amounts by the end of 2013. From January 2014, the Bank shall purchase financial assets and provide loans every month, the amount of which shall be determined pursuant to the relevant rules of the Bank.”

Financial markets in Japan and worldwide were shocked by new bold measures of “quantitative and qualitative monetary easing” by the Bank of Japan (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The objective of policy is to “achieve the price stability target of 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) at the earliest possible time, with a time horizon of about two years” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The main elements of the new policy are as follows:

1. Monetary Base Control. Most central banks in the world pursue interest rates instead of monetary aggregates, injecting bank reserves to lower interest rates to desired levels. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has shifted back to monetary aggregates, conducting money market operations with the objective of increasing base money, or monetary liabilities of the government, at the annual rate of 60 to 70 trillion yen. The BOJ estimates base money outstanding at “138 trillion yen at end-2012) and plans to increase it to “200 trillion yen at end-2012 and 270 trillion yen at end 2014” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
2. Maturity Extension of Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds. Purchases of bonds will be extended even up to bonds with maturity of 40 years with the guideline of extending the average maturity of BOJ bond purchases from three to seven years. The BOJ estimates the current average maturity of Japanese government bonds (JGB) at around seven years. The BOJ plans to purchase about 7.5 trillion yen per month (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130404d.pdf). Takashi Nakamichi, Tatsuo Ito and Phred Dvorak, wiring on “Bank of Japan mounts bid for revival,” on Apr 4, 2013, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323646604578401633067110420.html), find that the limit of maturities of three years on purchases of JGBs was designed to avoid views that the BOJ would finance uncontrolled government deficits.
3. Seigniorage. The BOJ is pursuing coordination with the government that will take measures to establish “sustainable fiscal structure with a view to ensuring the credibility of fiscal management” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
4. Diversification of Asset Purchases. The BOJ will engage in transactions of exchange traded funds (ETF) and real estate investment trusts (REITS) and not solely on purchases of JGBs. Purchases of ETFs will be at an annual rate of increase of one trillion yen and purchases of REITS at 30 billion yen.
5. Bank Lending Facility and Growth Supporting Funding Facility. At the meeting on Feb 18, the Bank of Japan doubled the scale of these lending facilities to prevent their expiration in the near future (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140218a.pdf).

Table VB-BOJF provides the forecasts of economic activity and inflation in Japan by the majority of members of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, which is part of their Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1510b.pdf) with changes on Apr 29, 2016 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1604b.pdf). On Jun 19, 2015, the Bank of Japan announced a “New Framework for Monetary Policy Meetings,” which provides for quarterly release of the forecasts of the economy and prices beginning in Jan 2016 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/rel150619a.pdf). For fiscal 2015, the forecast is of growth of GDP between 0.7 to 0.7 percent, with the all items CPI less fresh food of 0.0 percent (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1604b.pdf). The critical difference is forecast of the CPI excluding fresh food of 0.0 to 0.2 percent in 2016 and 1.8 to 3.0 percent in 2017 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1604b.pdf). Consumer price inflation in Japan excluding fresh food was 0.1 percent in Mar 2016 and minus 0.3 percent in 12 months (http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1581.htm). The CPI increased significantly because of the increase of the tax on value added of consumption in Apr 2014. The new monetary policy of the Bank of Japan aims to increase inflation to 2 percent. These forecasts are biannual in Apr and Oct. The Cabinet Office, Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan released on Jan 22, 2013, a “Joint Statement of the Government and the Bank of Japan on Overcoming Deflation and Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130122c.pdf) with the important change of increasing the inflation target of monetary policy from 1 percent to 2 percent:

“The Bank of Japan conducts monetary policy based on the principle that the policy shall be aimed at achieving price stability, thereby contributing to the sound development of the national economy, and is responsible for maintaining financial system stability. The Bank aims to achieve price stability on a sustainable basis, given that there are various factors that affect prices in the short run.

The Bank recognizes that the inflation rate consistent with price stability on a sustainable basis will rise as efforts by a wide range of entities toward strengthening competitiveness and growth potential of Japan's economy make progress. Based on this recognition, the Bank sets the price stability target at 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index.

Under the price stability target specified above, the Bank will pursue monetary easing and aim to achieve this target at the earliest possible time. Taking into consideration that it will take considerable time before the effects of monetary policy permeate the economy, the Bank will ascertain whether there is any significant risk to the sustainability of economic growth, including from the accumulation of financial imbalances.”

The Bank of Japan also provided explicit analysis of its view on price stability in a “Background note regarding the Bank’s thinking on price stability” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/data/rel130123a1.pdf http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130123a.htm/). The Bank of Japan also amended “Principal terms and conditions for the Asset Purchase Program” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130122a.pdf): “Asset purchases and loan provision shall be conducted up to the maximum outstanding amounts by the end of 2013. From January 2014, the Bank shall purchase financial assets and provide loans every month, the amount of which shall be determined pursuant to the relevant rules of the Bank.”

Financial markets in Japan and worldwide were shocked by new bold measures of “quantitative and qualitative monetary easing” by the Bank of Japan (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The objective of policy is to “achieve the price stability target of 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) at the earliest possible time, with a time horizon of about two years” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The main elements of the new policy are as follows:

1. Monetary Base Control. Most central banks in the world pursue interest rates instead of monetary aggregates, injecting bank reserves to lower interest rates to desired levels. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has shifted back to monetary aggregates, conducting money market operations with the objective of increasing base money, or monetary liabilities of the government, at the annual rate of 60 to 70 trillion yen. The BOJ estimates base money outstanding at “138 trillion yen at end-2012) and plans to increase it to “200 trillion yen at end-2012 and 270 trillion yen at end 2014” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
2. Maturity Extension of Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds. Purchases of bonds will be extended even up to bonds with maturity of 40 years with the guideline of extending the average maturity of BOJ bond purchases from three to seven years. The BOJ estimates the current average maturity of Japanese government bonds (JGB) at around seven years. The BOJ plans to purchase about 7.5 trillion yen per month (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130404d.pdf). Takashi Nakamichi, Tatsuo Ito and Phred Dvorak, wiring on “Bank of Japan mounts bid for revival,” on Apr 4, 2013, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323646604578401633067110420.html), find that the limit of maturities of three years on purchases of JGBs was designed to avoid views that the BOJ would finance uncontrolled government deficits.
3. Seigniorage. The BOJ is pursuing coordination with the government that will take measures to establish “sustainable fiscal structure with a view to ensuring the credibility of fiscal management” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
4. Diversification of Asset Purchases. The BOJ will engage in transactions of exchange traded funds (ETF) and real estate investment trusts (REITS) and not solely on purchases of JGBs. Purchases of ETFs will be at an annual rate of increase of one trillion yen and purchases of REITS at 30 billion yen.
5. Bank Lending Facility and Growth Supporting Funding Facility. At the meeting on Feb 18, the Bank of Japan doubled the scale of these lending facilities to prevent their expiration in the near future (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140218a.pdf).
6. Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Negative Nominal Interest Rate. On January 29, 2016, the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan introduced a new policy to attain the “price stability target of 2 percent at the earliest possible time” (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2016/k160129a.pdf). The new framework consists of three dimensions: quantity, quality and interest rate. The interest rate dimension consists of rates paid to current accounts that financial institutions hold at the Bank of Japan of three tiers zero, positive and minus 0.1 percent. The quantitative dimension consists of increasing the monetary base at the annual rate of 80 trillion yen. The qualitative dimension consists of purchases by the Bank of Japan of Japanese government bonds (JGBs), exchange traded funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITS).

Table VB-BOJF, Bank of Japan, Forecasts of the Majority of Members of the Policy Board, % Year on Year

Fiscal Year Date of Forecast	Real GDP	CPI All Items Less Fresh Food	Excluding Effects of Consumption Tax Hikes
2013
Apr 2014	+2.2 to +2.3 [+2.2]	+0.8
Jan 2014	+2.5 to +2.9 [+2.7]	+0.7 to +0.9 [+0.7]
Oct 2013	+2.6 to +3.0 [+2.7]	+0.6 to +1.0 [+0.7]
Jul 2013	+2.5 to +3.0 [+2.8]	+0.5 to +0.8 [+0.6]
2014
Apr 2015	-1.0 to -0.8 [-0.9]	+2.8	+0.8
Jan 2015	-0.6 to -0.4 [-0.5]	+2.9 to +3.2 [+2.9]	+0.9 to +1.2 [+0.9]
Oct 2014	+0.2 to +0.7 [+0.5]	+3.1 to +3.4 [+3.2]	+1.1 to +1.4 [+1.2]
Jul 2014	+0.6 to +1.3 [+1.0]	+3.2 to +3.5 [+3.3]	+1.2 to +1.5 [+1.3]
Apr 2014	+0.8 to +1.3 [+1.1]	+3.0 to +3.5 [+3.3]	+1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3]
Jan 2014	+0.9 to 1.5 [+1.4]	+2.9 to +3.6 [+3.3]	+0.9 to +1.6 [+1.3]
Oct 2013	+0.9 to +1.5 [+1.5]	+2.8 to +3.6 [+3.3]	+0.8 to +1.6 [+1.3]
Jul 2013	+0.8 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+2.7 to +3.6 [+3.3]	+0.7 to +1.6 [+1.3]
2015
Feb 2016	+0.7 to +0.7 [+0.7]	0.0
Jan 2016	+1.0 to +1.3 [+1.1]	0.0 to 0.2 [+0.1]
Oct 2015	+0.8 to +1.4 [+1.2]	0.0 to +0.4 [+0.1
Jul 2015	+1.5 to +1.9 [+1.7]	+0.3 to +1.0 [+0.7]
Apr 2015	+1.5 to +2.1 [+2.0]	+0.2 to 1.2 [+0.8]	+0.2 to 1.2 [+0.8]
Jan 2015	+1.8 to +2.3 [+2.1]	+0.4 to +1.3 [+1.0]	+0.4 to +1.3 [+1.0]
Oct 2014	+1.2 to +1.7 [+1.5]	+1.8 to 2.6 [+2.4]	+1.1 to +1.9 [+1.7]
Jul 2014	+1.2 to +1.6 [+1.5]	+1.9 to +2.8 [+2.6]	+1.2 to +2.1 [+1.9]
Apr 2014	+1.2 to +1.5 [+1.5]	+1.9 to +2.8 [+2.6]	+1.2 to +2.1 [+1.9]
Jan 2014	+1.2 to +1.8 [+1.5]	+1.7 to +2.9 [+2.6]	+1.0 to +2.2 [+1.9]
Oct 2013	+1.3 to +1.8 [+1.5]	+1.6 to +2.9 [+2.6]	+0.9 to +2.2 [+1.9]
Jul 2013	+1.3 to +1.9 [+1.5]	+1.6 to +2.9 [+2.6]	+0.9 to +2.2 [+1.9]
2016
Jul 2016	+0.8 to +1.0 [+1.0]	0.0 to +0.3 [0.5]	0.0 to +0.3 [0.5]
Apr 2016	+0.8 to +1.4 [+1.2]	0.0 to +0.8 [+0.5]	0.0 to +0.8 [+0.5]
Jan 2016	+1.0 to +1.7 [+1.5]	0.2 to +1.2 [+0.8]
Oct 2015	+1.2 to +1.6 [+1.4]	+0.8 to +1.5 [+1.4]
Jul 2015	+1.5 to 1.7 [+1.5]	+1.2 to +2.1 [+1.9]
Apr 2015	+1.4 to +1.8 [+1.5]	+1.2 to +2.2 [+2.0]	+1.2 to +2.2 [+2.0]
Jan 2015	+1.5 to +1.7 [+1.6]	+1.5 to +2.3 [+2.2]	+1.5 to +2.3 [+2.2]
Oct 2014	+1.0 to +1.4 [+1.2]	+1.9 to 3.0 [+2.8]	+1.2 to 2.3 [+2.1]
Jul 2014	+1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+2.0 to +3.0 [+2.8]	+1.3 to +2.3 [+2.1]
Apr 2014	+1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+2.0 to +3.0 [+2.8]	+1.3 to +2.3 [+2.1]
2017
Jul 2016	1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+0.8 to +1.8 [+1.7]	+0.8 to +1.8 [+1.7]
Apr 2016	0.0 to + +0.3 [+0.1]	1.8 to +3.0 [+2.7]	0.8 to +2.0 [+1.7
Jan 2016	+0.1 to + 0.5 [+0.3]	+2.0 to +3.1 [+2.8]	+ 1.0 to +2.1 [+1.8]
Oct 2015	+0.1 to +0.5 [+0.3]	+2.5 to +3.4 [+3.1]	+1.2 to 2.1 [+1.8]
Jul 2015	+0.1 to +0.5 [+0.2]	+2.7 to +3.4 [+3.1]	+1.4 to +2.1 [+1.8]
Apr 2015	+0.1 to +0.5 [+0.2]	+2.7 to +3.4 [+3.2]	+1.4 to +2.1 [+1.9]
2018
Jul 2016	+0.8 to +1.0 [+0.9]	+1.0 to +2.0 [+1.9]	+1.0 to +2.0 [+1.9]
Apr 2016	+0.6 to +1.2 [+1.0]	+1.0 to +2.1 [+1.9]	+1.0 to +2.1 [+1.9]

Figures in brackets are the median of forecasts of Policy Board members

Source: Policy Board, Bank of Japan

Figures in brackets are the median of forecasts of Policy Board members

Source: Policy Board, Bank of Japan

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k150121a.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140715a.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1510b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1601b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1604b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1607b.pdf

The Nikkei Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI Index™ with the Flash Japan

Manufacturing PMI™ increased from 48.1 in Jun to 49.0 in Jul and the Flash Japan

Manufacturing Output Index™ increased from 48.1 in Jun to 49.3 in Jul

(https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/d85ef1c794fb4c248724bd80b1e20e64). New export orders decreased at faster rate. Amy Brownbill, Economist at

Markit, finds slowing conditions in Japan’s manufacturing with adverse effects from the strengthening yen/dollar rate

(https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/d85ef1c794fb4c248724bd80b1e20e64).The Nikkei Composite Output PMI Index increased from 49.0 in Jun to 50.1 in Jul, indicating stabilizing business activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/765604ebdfb64ddab2a118a9d383f1ea). The Nikkei Business Activity Index of Services increased to 50.4 in Jul from 49.4 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/765604ebdfb64ddab2a118a9d383f1ea). Amy Brownbill, Ecoomist at Markit and author of the report, find moderate improvement (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/765604ebdfb64ddab2a118a9d383f1ea). The Nikkei Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI™), seasonally adjusted, increased from 48.1 in Jun to 49.3 in Jul (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/1f00d41edc5747c784618934d43195ab). New orders contracted from home and abroad. Amy Brownbill, Economist at Markit, finds milder deteriorating conditions in manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/1f00d41edc5747c784618934d43195ab).Table JPY provides the country data table for Japan.

Table JPY, Japan, Economic Indicators

Historical GDP and CPI	1981-2010 Real GDP Growth and CPI Inflation 1981-2010 Blog 8/9/11 Table 26
Corporate Goods Prices	Jul ∆% 0.0 12 months ∆% -3.9 Blog 8/14/16
Consumer Price Index	Jun NSA ∆% -0.2; Jun 12 months NSA ∆% -0.4 Blog 7/31/16
Real GDP Growth	IQ2016 ∆%: 0.5 on IVQ2015;  IQ2016 SAAR 1.9; ∆% from quarter a year earlier: 0.1 % Blog 6/16/13 8/18/13 9/15/13 11/17/13 12/15/13 2/23/14 3/16/14 5/18/14 6/15/14 8/17/14 9/14/14 11/23/14 12/14/14 2/22/15 3/15/15 5/24/15 6/14/15 8/23/15 9/13/15 11/22/15 12/13/15 2/21/16 3/13/16 5/22/16 6/12/16
Employment Report	Jun Unemployed 2.10 million Change in unemployed since last year: -140 thousand Unemployment rate: 3.1% Blog 7/31/16
All Industry Indices	May month SA ∆% -1.0 12-month NSA ∆% 0.5 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15
Industrial Production	May SA month ∆%: -2.3 May 12-month NSA ∆% -0.1 Earlier Data: Blog 3/29/15
Machine Orders	Total Jun ∆% 10.1 Private ∆%: 6.9 Jun ∆% Excluding Volatile Orders 8.3 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Tertiary Index	Jun month SA ∆% 0.8 Jun 12 months NSA ∆% 0.4 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15
Wholesale and Retail Sales	May 12 months: Total ∆%: -5.1 Wholesale ∆%: -6.6 Retail ∆%: -1.9 Earlier Data: Blog 3/29/15
Family Income and Expenditure Survey	May 12-month ∆% total nominal consumption -1.6, real -1.1 Earlier Data: Blog 3/29/15
Trade Balance	Exports Jun 12 months ∆%: minus 7.4 Imports May 12 months ∆% -18.8 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15

Links to blog comments in Table JPY: 7/31/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/business-fixed-investment-has-been-soft.html

7/17/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/oscillating-valuations-of-risk.html

7/3/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/financial-asset-values-rebound-from.html

6/12/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/considerable-uncertainty-about-economic.html

5/22/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/most-fomc-participants-judged-that-if.html

3/13/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/monetary-policy-and-fluctuations-of_13.html

12/13/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/liftoff-of-interest-rates-with-volatile_17.html

11/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-liftoff-followed-by.html

9/13/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what_13.html

08/23/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/global-decline-of-values-of-financial.html

6/14/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/volatility-of-financial-asset.html

5/24/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/interest-rate-policy-and-dollar.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

3/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

2/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html

12/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/global-financial-and-economic-risk.html

11/23/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.htm

9/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitics-monetary-policy-and.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

6/15/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financialgeopolitical-risks-recovery.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html

2/23/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html

12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

VC China. China estimates an index of nonmanufacturing purchasing managers based on a sample of 1200 nonmanufacturing enterprises across the country (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Table CIPMNM provides this index and components. The total index increased from 55.7 in Jan 2011 to 58.0 in Mar 2012, decreasing to 53.9 in Aug 2013. The index decreased from 56.0 in Nov 2013 to 54.6 in Dec 2013, easing to 53.4 in Jan 2014. The index moved to 53.9 in Jul 2016. The index of new orders increased from 52.2 in Jan 2012 to 54.3 in Dec 2012 but fell to 50.1 in May 2013, barely above the neutral frontier of 50.0. The index of new orders stabilized at 51.0 in Nov-Dec 2013, easing to 50.9 in Jan 2014. The index of new orders moved to 49.9 in Jul 2016.

Table CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted

	Total Index	New Orders	Interm. Input Prices	Subs Prices	Exp
Jul 2016	53.9	49.9	51.4	49.5	59.5
Jun	53.7	50.8	51.6	50.6	58.6
May	53.1	49.2	51.6	49.8	57.8
Apr	53.5	48.7	52.1	49.1	59.1
Mar	53.8	50.8	51.4	49.5	59.0
Feb	52.7	48.7	50.5	48.3	59.5
Jan	53.5	49.6	49.9	47.7	58.4
Dec2015	54.4	51.7	49.0	48.2	58.3
Nov	53.6	50.2	49.3	47.7	60.0
Oct	53.1	51.2	51.2	48.8	61.1
Sep	53.4	50.2	50.8	47.9	60.0
Aug	53.4	49.6	49.6	47.8	59.7
Jul	53.9	50.1	48.9	47.4	60.0
Jun	53.8	51.3	50.6	48.7	59.7
May	53.2	49.5	52.8	50.4	60.1
Apr	53.4	49.1	50.8	48.9	60.0
Mar	53.7	50.3	50.0	48.4	58.8
Feb	53.9	51.2	52.5	51.2	58.7
Jan	53.7	50.2	47.6	46.9	59.6
Dec 2014	54.1	50.5	50.1	47.3	59.5
Nov	53.9	50.1	50.6	47.7	59.7
Oct	53.8	51.0	52.0	48.8	59.9
Sep	54.0	49.5	49.8	47.3	60.9
Aug	54.4	50.0	52.2	48.3	61.2
Jul	54.2	50.7	53.4	49.5	61.5
Jun	55.0	50.7	56.0	50.8	60.4
May	55.5	52.7	54.5	49.0	60.7
Apr	54.8	50.8	52.4	49.4	61.5
Mar	54.5	50.8	52.8	49.5	61.5
Feb	55.0	51.4	52.1	49.0	59.9
Jan	53.4	50.9	54.5	50.1	58.1
Dec 2013	54.6	51.0	56.9	52.0	58.7
Nov	56.0	51.0	54.8	49.5	61.3
Oct	56.3	51.6	56.1	51.4	60.5
Sep	55.4	53.4	56.7	50.6	60.1
Aug	53.9	50.9	57.1	51.2	62.9
Jul	54.1	50.3	58.2	52.4	63.9
Jun	53.9	50.3	55.0	50.6	61.8
May	54.3	50.1	54.4	50.7	62.9
Apr	54.5	50.9	51.1	47.6	62.5
Mar	55.6	52.0	55.3	50.0	62.4
Feb	54.5	51.8	56.2	51.1	62.7
Jan	56.2	53.7	58.2	50.9	61.4
Dec 2012	56.1	54.3	53.8	50.0	64.6
Nov	55.6	53.2	52.5	48.4	64.6
Oct	55.5	51.6	58.1	50.5	63.4
Sep	53.7	51.8	57.5	51.3	60.9
Aug	56.3	52.7	57.6	51.2	63.2
Jul	55.6	53.2	49.7	48.7	63.9
Jun	56.7	53.7	52.1	48.6	65.5
May	55.2	52.5	53.6	48.5	65.4
Apr	56.1	52.7	57.9	50.3	66.1
Mar	58.0	53.5	60.2	52.0	66.6
Feb	57.3	52.7	59.0	51.2	63.8
Jan	55.7	52.2	58.2	51.1	65.3

Notes: Interm.: Intermediate; Subs: Subscription; Exp: Business Expectations

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart CIPMNM provides China’s nonmanufacturing purchasing managers’ index. The index fell from 56.0 in Oct 2013 to 53.9 in Jul 2016.

Chart CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Table CIPMMFG provides the index of purchasing managers of manufacturing seasonally adjusted of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The general index (IPM) rose from 50.5 in Jan 2012 to 53.3 in Apr 2012, falling to 49.2 in Aug 2012, rebounding to 50.6 in Dec 2012. The index fell to 50.3 in Jul 2013, barely above the neutral frontier at 50.0, recovering to 51.4 in Nov 2013 but falling to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.5 in Jan 2014, 50.1 in Dec 2014 and 49.9 in Jul 2016. The index of new orders fell from 54.5 in Apr 2012 to 51.2 in Dec 2012. The index of new orders fell from 52.3 in Nov 2013 to 52.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.9 in Jan 2014 and moved to 50.4 in Dec 2014. The index moved to 50.4 in Jul 2016.

Table CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted

	IPM	PI	NOI	INV	EMP	SDEL
2016
Jul	49.9	52.1	50.4	47.3	48.2	50.5
Jun	50.0	52.5	50.5	47.0	47.9	50.7
May	50.1	52.3	50.7	47.6	48.2	50.4
Apr	50.1	52.2	51.0	47.4	47.8	50.1
Mar	50.2	52.3	51.4	48.2	48.1	51.3
Feb	49.0	50.2	48.6	48.0	47.6	49.8
Jan	49.4	51.4	49.5	46.8	47.8	50.5
2015
Dec	49.7	52.2	50.2	47.6	47.4	50.7
Nov	49.6	51.9	49.8	47.1	47.6	50.6
Oct	49.8	52.2	50.3	47.2	47.8	50.6
Sep	49.8	52.3	50.2	47.5	47.9	50.8
Aug	49.7	51.7	49.7	48.3	47.9	50.6
Jul	50.0	52.4	49.9	48.4	48.0	50.4
Jun	50.2	52.9	50.1	48.7	48.1	50.3
May	50.2	52.9	50.6	48.2	48.2	50.9
Apr	50.1	52.6	50.2	48.2	48.0	50.4
Mar	50.1	52.1	50.2	48.0	48.4	50.1
Feb	49.9	51.4	50.4	48.2	47.8	49.9
Jan	49.8	51.7	50.2	47.3	47.9	50.2
2014
Dec	50.1	52.2	50.4	47.5	48.1	49.9
Nov	50.3	52.5	50.9	47.7	48.2	50.3
Oct	50.8	53.1	51.6	48.4	48.4	50.1
Sep	51.1	53.6	52.2	48.8	48.2	50.1
Aug	51.1	53.2	52.5	48.6	48.2	50.0
Jul	51.7	54.2	53.6	49.0	48.3	50.2
Jun	51.0	53.0	52.8	48.0	48.6	50.5
May	50.8	52.8	52.3	48.0	48.2	50.3
Apr	50.4	52.5	51.2	48.1	48.3	50.1
Mar	50.3	52.7	50.6	47.8	48.3	49.8
Feb	50.2	52.6	50.5	47.4	48.0	49.9
Jan	50.5	53.0	50.9	47.8	48.2	49.8
Dec 2013	51.0	53.9	52.0	47.6	48.7	50.5
Nov	51.4	54.5	52.3	47.8	49.6	50.6
Oct	51.4	54.4	52.5	48.6	49.2	50.8
Sep	51.1	52.9	52.8	48.5	49.1	50.8
Aug	51.0	52.6	52.4	48.0	49.3	50.4
Jul	50.3	52.4	50.6	47.6	49.1	50.1
Jun	50.1	52.0	50.4	47.4	48.7	50.3
May	50.8	53.3	51.8	47.6	48.8	50.8
Apr	50.6	52.6	51.7	47.5	49.0	50.8
Mar	50.9	52.7	52.3	47.5	49.8	51.1
Feb	50.1	51.2	50.1	49.5	47.6	48.3
Jan	50.4	51.3	51.6	50.1	47.8	50.0
Dec 2012	50.6	52.0	51.2	47.3	49.0	48.8
Nov	50.6	52.5	51.2	47.9	48.7	49.9
Oct	50.2	52.1	50.4	47.3	49.2	50.1
Sep	49.8	51.3	49.8	47.0	48.9	49.5
Aug	49.2	50.9	48.7	45.1	49.1	50.0
Jul	50.1	51.8	49.0	48.5	49.5	49.0
Jun	50.2	52.0	49.2	48.2	49.7	49.1
May	50.4	52.9	49.8	45.1	50.5	49.0
Apr	53.3	57.2	54.5	48.5	51.0	49.6
Mar	53.1	55.2	55.1	49.5	51.0	48.9
Feb	51.0	53.8	51.0	48.8	49.5	50.3
Jan	50.5	53.6	50.4	49.7	47.1	49.7

IPM: Index of Purchasing Managers; PI: Production Index; NOI: New Orders Index; EMP: Employed Person Index; SDEL: Supplier Delivery Time Index

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

China estimates the manufacturing index of purchasing managers on the basis of a sample of 820 enterprises (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Chart CIPMMFG provides the manufacturing index of purchasing managers. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013. The index decreased from 51.4 in Nov 2013 to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index moved to 49.9 in Jul 2016.

Chart CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Growth of China’s GDP in IIQ2016 relative to the same period in 2015 was 6.7 percent and cumulative growth to IIQ2016 was 6.7 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDP. Secondary industry accounts for 39.4 percent of cumulative GDP in IIQ2016. In cumulative IIQ2016, industry accounts for 33.7 percent of GDP and construction for 5.8 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 54.1 percent of cumulative GDP in IIQ2016 and primary industry for 6.5 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is shifting to lower growth rates with improvement in living standards by increasing growth of services. The bottom block of Table VC-1 provides quarter-on-quarter growth rates of GDP and their annual equivalent. China’s GDP growth decelerated significantly from annual equivalent 10.0 percent in IQ2011 to 6.1 percent in IVQ2011 and 7.4 percent in IQ2012, rebounding to 9.1 percent in IIQ2012, 7.4 percent in IIIQ2012 and 7.8 percent in IVQ2012. Annual equivalent growth in IQ2013 eased to 7.8 percent and to 7.0 percent in IIQ2013, rebounding to 8.7 percent in IIIQ2013. Annual equivalent growth was 6.6 percent in IVQ2013, increasing to 7.0 percent in IQ2014 and increasing to 7.4 percent in IIQ2014. Annual equivalent growth increased to 7.8 percent in IIIQ2014 and slowed to 7.0 percent in IVQ2014. Growth slowed to annual equivalent 6.6 percent in IQ2015, increasing to 7.4 percent in IIQ2015 and 7.4 percent in IIIQ2015. Growth slowed to 6.1 percent in annual equivalent in IVQ2015 and 4.9 percent in IQ2016. Growth increased to annual equivalent 7.4 percent in IIQ2016.

Table VC-GDP China, Quarterly Growth of GDP, Current CNY 100 Million and Inflation Adjusted ∆%

Cumulative GDP IQ2015	Value Current CNY Billion IIQ2016	Value Current CNY Billion IQ2016 to IIQ2016	IIQ2016 Year-on-Year Constant Prices ∆%	Cumulative to IIQ2016 ∆%
GDP	17,992.7	34,063.7	6.7	6.7
Primary Industry	1,329.4	2,209.7	3.1	3.1
Farming	1,377.9	2,293.2	3.3	3.2
Secondary Industry	7,326.8	13,425.0	6.3	6.1
Industry	6,114.6	11,494.3	6.0	5.9
Construction	1,242.6	1,987.8	7.3	7.5
Tertiary Industry	9,336.5	18,429.0	7.5	7.5
Transport, Storage, Post	828.6	1,553.7	5.7	4.6
Wholesale, Retail Trades	1,704.8	3,334.1	6.5	6.2
Accommodation and Restaurants	303.8	615.1	6.8	6.9
Finance	1,542.8	3,121.9	5.3	6.7
Real Estate	1,167.4	2,249.3	8.8	9.0
Other	3,710.1	7,414.2	9.0	8.9
Growth in Quarter Relative to Prior Quarter	∆% on Prior Quarter		∆% Annual Equivalent	∆% Year-on-Year
2016
IIQ2016	1.8		7.4	6.7
IQ2016	1.2		4.9	6.7
2015
IVQ2015	1.5		6.1	6.8
IIIQ2015	1.8		7.4	6.9
IIQ2015	1.8		7.4	7.0
IQ2015	1.6		6.6	7.0
2014
IVQ2014	1.7		7.0	7.2
IIIQ2014	1.9		7.8	7.1
IIQ2014	1.8		7.4	7.5
IQ2014	1.7		7.0	7.4
2013
IVQ2013	1.6		6.6	7.7
IIIQ2013	2.1		8.7	7.9
IIQ2013	1.7		7.0	7.6
IQ2013	1.9		7.8	7.9
2012
IVQ2012	1.9		7.8	8.1
IIIQ2012	1.8		7.4	7.5
IIQ2012	2.2		9.1	7.6
IQ2012	1.8		7.4	8.1
2011
IVQ2011	1.5		6.1	8.8
IIIQ2011	1.9		7.8	9.4
IIQ2011	2.4		10.0	10.0
IQ2011	2.4		10.0	10.2

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Growth of China’s GDP in IIQ2016 relative to the same period in 2015 was 6.7 percent and cumulative growth to IIQ2016 was 6.7 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDP. Secondary industry accounts for 39.4 percent of cumulative GDP in IIQ2016. In cumulative IIQ2016, industry accounts for 33.7 percent of GDP and construction for 5.8 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 54.1 percent of cumulative GDP in IIQ2016 and primary industry for 6.5 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is shifting to lower growth rates with improvement in living standards by increasing growth of services. Table VC-GDPA shows that growth decelerated from 12.1 percent in IQ2010 and 11.2 percent in IIQ2010 to 7.9 percent in IQ2013, 7.6 percent in IIQ2013 and 7.9 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP grew 7.7 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 1.6 percent relative to IIIQ2013, which is equivalent to 6.6 percent per year. GDP grew 7.4 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.7 percent in IQ2014 that is equivalent to 7.0 percent per year. GDP grew 7.5 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is annual equivalent 7.4 percent. In IIIQ2014, GDP grew 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier and 1.9 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is 7.8 percent in annual equivalent. GDP grew 1.7 percent in IVQ2014, which is 7.0 percent in annual equivalent and 7.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2015, GDP grew 1.6 percent, which is equivalent to 6.6 in a year and 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 1.8 percent in IIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.4 percent in a year, and grew 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.8 percent in IIIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.4 percent in a year, and grew 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.5 percent in IVQ2015, which is equivalent to 6.1 percent in a year and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, GDP grew at 1.2 percent, which is equivalent to 4.9 percent, and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.8 percent in IIQ2016, which is annual equivalent to 7.4 percent, and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier.

Table VC-GDPA China, Growth Rate of GDP, ∆% Relative to a Year Earlier and ∆% Relative to Prior Quarter

	IQ2015	IIQQ2015	IIIQ2015	IVQ2015	IQ2016	IIQ2016
GDP	7.0	7.0	6.9	6.8	6.7	6.7
Primary Industry	3.2	3.5	3.8	4.1	2.9	3.1
Secondary Industry	6.4	6.1	6.0	6.1	5.8	6.3
Tertiary Industry	7.9	8.4	8.4	8.2	7.6	7.5
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.6	1.8	1.8	1.5	1.2	1.8
	IQ 2013	IIQ 2013	IIIQ 2013	IVQ 2013	IQ 2014	IIQ 2014	IIIQ 2014	IVQ 2014
GDP	7.9	7.6	7.9	7.7	7.4	7.5	7.1	7.2
Primary Industry	3.4	3.0	3.4	4.0	3.5	3.9	4.2	4.1
Secondary Industry	7.8	7.6	7.8	7.8	7.3	7.4	7.4	7.3
Tertiary Industry	8.3	8.3	8.4	8.3	7.1	8.0	7.9	8.1
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.9	1.7	2.1	1.6	1.7	1.8	1.9	1.7
	IQ 2011	IIQ 2011	IIIQ 2011	IVQ 2011	IQ  2012	IIQ 2012	IIIQ 2012	IVQ 2012
GDP	10.2	10.0	9.4	8.8	8.1	7.6	7.5	8.1
Primary Industry	3.5	3.2	3.8	4.5	3.8	4.3	4.2	4.5
Secondary Industry	11.1	11.0	10.8	10.6	9.1	8.3	8.1	8.1
Tertiary Industry	9.1	9.2	9.0	8.9	7.5	7.7	7.9	8.1
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	2.4	2.4	1.9	1.5	1.8	2.2	1.8	1.9
	IQ 2010	IIQ 2010	IIIQ 2010	IVQ 2010
GDP	12.1	11.2	10.7	12.1
Primary Industry	3.8	3.6	4.0	3.8
Secondary Industry	14.5	13.3	12.6	14.5
Tertiary Industry	10.5	9.9	9.7	10.5

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart VC-GDP of the National Bureau of Statistics of China provides annual value and growth rates of GDP. China’s GDP growth in 2013 is still high at 7.7 percent but at the lowest rhythm in five years.

Chart VC-GDP, China, Gross Domestic Product, Million Yuan and ∆%, 2009-2013

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Chart VC-FXR provides China’s foreign exchange reserves. FX reserves grew from $2399.2 billion in 2009 to $3821.3 billion in 2013 driven by high growth of China’s trade surplus.

Chart VC-FXR, China, Foreign Exchange Reserves, 2009-2013

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Chart VC-Trade provides China’s imports and exports. Exports exceeded imports with resulting large trade balance surpluses that increased foreign exchange reserves.

Chart VC-Trade, China, Imports and Exports of Goods, 2009-2013, $100 Million US Dollars

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

The Caixin Flash China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) compiled by Markit (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/883014a121534f51bc42e5060845f727) is mixed. The overall Flash Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI^™ decreased from 47.3 in Aug to 47.0 in Sep, while the Flash Caixin China General Manufacturing Output Index decreased from 46.4 in Aug to 45.7 in Aug, indicating weaker conditions. He Fan, Chief Economist at Caixin Insight Group finds need of fiscal and monetary policy (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/883014a121534f51bc42e5060845f727). The Caixin China General Services PMI^™, compiled by Markit, shows the Caixin Composite Output, combining manufacturing and services, increasing from 50.3 in Jun to 51.9 in Jul (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/afd55eb57ec34ad187f0c21f29a0b973). He Fan, Chief Economist at Caixin Insight Group, finds improving activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/afd55eb57ec34ad187f0c21f29a0b973). The Caixin General Manufacturing PMI^™ increased to 50.6 in Jul from 48.6 in Jun, indicating moderate improvement in manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/b39068da1f39471490e6598743d824f5). He Fan, Chief Economist at Caixin Insight Group, finds improvement (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/b39068da1f39471490e6598743d824f5). Table CNY provides the country data table for China.

Table CNY, China, Economic Indicators

Price Indexes for Industry	Jul 12-month ∆%: minus 1.7 Jun month ∆%: 0.2 Blog 8/14/16
Consumer Price Index	Jul 12-month ∆%: 1.8 Jun month ∆%: 0.2 Blog 8/14/16
Value Added of Industry	Jun month ∆%: 0.47 Jan-Jun 2016/Jan-Jun 2015 ∆%: 6.0 Earlier Data Blog 4/19/15
GDP Growth Rate	Year IIQ2016 ∆%: 6.7 Second Quarter 2016 ∆%: 1.8 Quarter IIQ2016 AE ∆%: 7.4 Blog 7/24/16
Investment in Fixed Assets	Total Jan-Jun 2015 ∆%: 9.0 Real estate development: 6.1 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Retail Sales	Jun month ∆%: 0.92 Jan-Jun 2016 ∆%:10.3 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Trade Balance	Jul balance $52.31 billion Exports 12M ∆% -4.4 Imports 12M ∆% -12.5 2015 Exports ∆% -2.8 2015 Imports ∆% -14.1 Cumulative Jul 2016: $321.70 billion Cumulative Jul 2015: $303.50 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15

Links to blog comments in Table CNY: 7/24/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/unresolved-us-balance-of-payments.html

7/17/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/oscillating-valuations-of-risk.html

6/19/2016 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/fomc-projections-world-inflation-waves.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

VD Euro Area. Using calendar and seasonally adjusted data (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of the euro area (19 countries) fell 5.7 percent from IQ2008 to IIQ2009. The GDP of the euro area (19 countries) increased 6.6 percent from IIIQ2009 to IQ2016 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.0 percent. The GDP of the euro area (19 countries) is higher by 0.5 percent in IQ2016 relative to the pre-recession peak in IQ2008. The GDP of the euro area (18) countries increased at the average yearly rate of 2.3 percent from IQ1999 to IQ2008 while that of the euro area (19 countries) increased at 2.3 percent. Table VD-EUR provides yearly growth rates of the combined GDP of the members of the European Monetary Union (EMU) or euro area since 1999. Growth was very strong at 3.2 percent in 2006 and 3.1 percent in 2007. The global recession had strong impact with growth of only 0.5 percent in 2008 and decline of 4.5 percent in 2009. Recovery was at lower growth rates of 2.1 percent in 2010 and 1.6 percent in 2011. EUROSTAT estimates growth of GDP of the euro area of minus 0.9 percent in 2012 and minus 0.3 percent in 2013. Euro Area GDP grew 0.9 percent in 2014 and grew 1.7 percent in 2015.

Table VD-EUR, Euro Area, Yearly Percentage Change of Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, Unemployment and GDP ∆%

Year	HICP ∆%	Unemployment %	GDP ∆%
1999	1.2	9.7	3.0
2000	2.2	8.9	3.8
2001	2.4	8.3	2.1
2002	2.3	8.6	1.0
2003	2.1	9.1	0.7
2004	2.2	9.3	2.3
2005	2.2	9.1	1.7
2006	2.2	8.4	3.2
2007	2.2	7.5	3.1
2008	3.3	7.6	0.5
2009	0.3	9.6	-4.5
2010	1.6	10.2	2.1
2011	2.7	10.2	1.6
2012	2.5	11.4	-0.9
2013	1.3	12.0	-0.3
2014	0.4	11.6	0.9
2015	0.0	10.9	1.7

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

The GDP of the euro area in 2014 in current US dollars in the dataset of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is $13,429.8 billion or 17.4 percent of world GDP of $77,825.3 billion (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/01/weodata/index.aspx). The sum of the GDP of France $2833.7 billion with the GDP of Germany of $3874.4 billion, Italy of $2141.9 billion and Spain $1383.5 billion is $10,233.5 billion or 76.2 percent of total euro area GDP and 13.1 percent of World GDP. The four largest economies account for slightly more than three quarters of economic activity of the euro area. Table VD-EUR1 is constructed with the dataset of EUROSTAT, providing growth rates of the euro area as a whole and of the largest four economies of Germany, France, Italy and Spain annually from 1996 to 2015. The impact of the global recession on the overall euro area economy and on the four largest economies was quite strong. There was sharp contraction in 2009 and growth rates have not rebounded to earlier growth with exception of Germany in 2010 and 2011.

Table VD-EUR1, Euro Area, Real GDP Growth Rate, ∆%

	Euro Area	Germany	France	Italy	Spain
2015	1.7	1.7	1.3	0.8	3.2
2014	0.9	1.6	0.6	-0.3	1.4
2013	-0.3	0.3	0.6	-1.7	-1.7
2012	-0.9	0.4	0.2	-2.8	-2.6
2011	1.6	3.7	2.1	0.6	-1.0
2010	2.1	4.1	2.0	1.7	0.0
2009	-4.5	-5.6	-2.9	-5.5	-3.6
2008	0.5	1.1	0.2	-1.1	1.1
2007	3.1	3.3	2.4	1.5	3.8
2006	3.2	3.7	2.4	2.0	4.2
2005	1.7	0.7	1.6	0.9	3.7
2004	2.3	1.2	2.8	1.6	3.2
2003	0.7	-0.7	0.8	0.2	3.2
2002	1.0	0.0	1.1	0.2	2.9
2001	2.1	1.7	2.0	1.8	4.0
2000	3.8	3.0	3.9	3.7	5.3
1999	3.0	2.0	3.4	1.6	4.5
1998	2.9	2.0	3.6	1.6	4.3
Average 1999-2015	1.2	1.2	1.3	0.2	1.7
Average 1999-2007	2.2	1.6	2.1	1.5	3.8
1997	2.6	1.8	2.3	1.8	3.7
1996	1.7	0.8	1.4	1.3	2.7

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

The Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index of the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI^®, combining activity in manufacturing and services, decreased from 53.1 in Jun to 52.9 in Jul (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/231d233872e24e2f932294d291cc61aa). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds that the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI index suggests GDP annual growth about 1.5 percent (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/231d233872e24e2f932294d291cc61aa). The Markit Eurozone PMI^® Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing activity with close association with GDP increased from 53.1 in Jun to 53.2 in Jul (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/3e1e7aa8917e49d587b3c9ac4ae6fff3). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds potential for growth of about 0.3 percent in IIIQ2016 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/3e1e7aa8917e49d587b3c9ac4ae6fff3). The Markit Eurozone Services Business Activity Index increased from 52.8 in Jun to 52.9 in Jul (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/3e1e7aa8917e49d587b3c9ac4ae6fff3). The Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI^® decreased from 52.8 in Jun to 52.0 in Jul (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/a5623fb0336546be9234f64dddb75ba0). New export orders increased. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds industrial growth around 2 percent annual (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/a5623fb0336546be9234f64dddb75ba0). Table EUR provides the data table for the euro area.

Table EUR, Euro Area Economic Indicators

GDP	IIQ2016 ∆% 0.3; IIQ2016/IIQ2015 ∆% 1.6 Blog 9/13/15 11/22/15 12/13/15 2/14/16 3/13/16 5/1/16 5/15/16 6/12/16 8/7/16 8/14/16
Unemployment	Jun 2016: 10.1 % unemployment rate; Jun 2016: 16.269 million unemployed Blog 7/31/16
HICP	Jun month ∆%: 0.2 12 months May ∆%: 0.1 Blog 7/17/16
Producer Prices	Euro Zone industrial producer prices Jun ∆%: 0.7 Jun 12-month ∆%: -3.1 Blog 8/7/16
Industrial Production	Jun Month ∆%: 0.6; 12 months ∆%: 0.4 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Retail Sales	Jun month ∆%: 0.0 Jun 12 months ∆%: 1.6 Earlier Data: Blog 3/15/15
Confidence and Economic Sentiment Indicator	Sentiment 104.6 Jul 2016 Consumer minus 7.9 Jul 2016 Earlier Data: Blog 4/5/15
Trade	Jan-Apr 2016/Jan-Apr 2015 Exports ∆%: -1.0 Imports ∆%: -3.4 Apr 2016 12-month Exports ∆% -0.9 Imports ∆% -5.4 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15

Links to blog comments in Table EUR: 8/7/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/global-competitive-easing-or.html

7/31/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/business-fixed-investment-has-been-soft.html

7/10/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html

7/3/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/financial-asset-values-rebound-from.html

6/12/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/considerable-uncertainty-about-economic.html

5/15/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

5/1/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/economic-activity-appears-to-have.html

3/13/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/monetary-policy-and-fluctuations-of_13.html

3/6/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/twenty-five-million-unemployed-or.html

2/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/subdued-foreign-growth-and-dollar.html

12/13/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/liftoff-of-interest-rates-with-volatile_17.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

Table VD-1 provides percentage changes of euro area real GDP in a quarter relative to the prior quarter. Real GDP fell 0.3 percent in IVQ2011, fell 0.2 in IQ2012 and fell in the final three quarters of 2012: 0.3 percent in IIQ2012, 0.1 percent in IIIQ2012 and 0.4 percent in IVQ2012. GDP fell 0.3 percent in IQ2013 and increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2013. Growth slowed at 0.3 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2013. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent in IQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2014. GDP in the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2014. Euro area GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015. Euro area GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2015. GDP in the euro area increased 0.6 percent in IQ2016. The second estimate of GDP of the euro area is 0.3 percent in IIQ2016. The global recession manifested in the euro area in five consecutive quarterly declines from IIQ2008 to IIQ2009. The strongest impact was contraction of 3.0 percent in IQ2009. Recovery began in IIIQ2009 with cumulative growth of 4.1 percent to IQ2011 or at the annual equivalent rate of 2.3 percent. Growth was much more vigorous from IVQ2003 to IQ2008. Using calendar and seasonally chain-linked volumes (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of the euro area (19 countries) fell 5.7 percent from IQ2008 to IIQ2009. The GDP of the euro area (19 countries) increased 6.9 percent from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2016 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.0 percent. The GDP of the euro area (19 countries) is higher by 0.8 percent in IIQ2016 relative to the pre-recession peak in IQ2008. The GDP of the euro area (18) countries increased at the average yearly rate of 2.3 percent from IQ1999 to IQ2008 while that of the euro area (19 countries) increased at 2.3 percent. The GDP of the euro area (19 countries) grew at 2.3 percent annual equivalent from IQ1999 to the pre-recession peak in IQ2008. The GDP of the euro area would grow under trend of 2.3 percent from €2,471,049.0 million in IQ2008 to €2,980,954.3 million in IIQ2016. The estimate of GDP of €2,490,463.5 million in IIQ2016 is 16.5 percent below trend.

Table VD-1, Euro Area, Real GDP, Percentage Change from Prior Quarter, Calendar and Seasonally and Working Day Adjusted ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IVQ
2016	0.6	0.3
2015	0.6	0.4	0.3	0.4
2014	0.2	0.1	0.3	0.4
2013	-0.3	0.4	0.3	0.2
2012	-0.2	-0.3	-0.1	-0.4
2011	0.8	0.0	0.0	-0.3
2010	0.4	1.0	0.4	0.6
2009	-3.0	-0.2	0.3	0.5
2008	0.5	-0.3	-0.5	-1.8
2007	0.8	0.6	0.5	0.6
2006	0.9	1.0	0.6	1.1
2005	0.2	0.7	0.7	0.6
2004	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.3
2003	-0.2	0.1	0.5	0.8
2002	0.2	0.5	0.4	0.1
2001	0.9	0.1	0.1	0.2
2000	1.1	0.9	0.5	0.8
1999	0.9	0.6	1.1	1.3

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

Table VD-2 provides percentage change in real GDP in the euro area in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Growth rates were quite strong from 2004 to 2007. There were five consecutive quarters of sharp declines in GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier from IVQ2008 to IVQ2009 with sharp contractions of 5.5 percent in IQ2009, 5.4 percent in IIQ2009 and 4.6 percent in IIIQ2009.  Growth rates decline in magnitude with 1.4 percent in IIIQ2011, 0.5 percent in IVQ211 and -0.5 percent in IQ2012 followed by contractions of 0.8 percent in IIQ2012, 0.9 percent in IIIQ2012 and 1.0 percent in IVQ2012. GDP contracted 1.1 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and contracted 0.4 percent in IIQ2013 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2013 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.6 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 1.1 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.8 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.0 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 1.3 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.6 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 1.6 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 1.7 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 1.7 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 1.6 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier.

Table VD-2, Euro Area, Real GDP Percentage Change in a Quarter Relative to Same Quarter a

Year Earlier, Seasonally and Working Day Adjusted ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IV
2016	1.7	1.6
2015	1.3	1.6	1.6	1.7
2014	1.1	0.8	0.8	1.0
2013	-1.1	-0.4	0.0	0.6
2012	-0.5	-0.8	-0.9	-1.0
2011	2.8	1.8	1.4	0.5
2010	1.0	2.2	2.4	2.4
2009	-5.5	-5.4	-4.6	-2.4
2008	2.2	1.2	0.2	-2.1
2007	3.6	3.2	3.0	2.4
2006	3.0	3.4	3.3	3.8
2005	1.4	1.6	2.0	2.2
2004	1.9	2.3	2.2	1.7
2003	0.8	0.4	0.5	1.1
2002	0.5	0.9	1.2	1.2
2001	3.2	2.3	1.9	1.2
2000	4.2	4.5	3.9	3.4
1999	2.2	2.4	2.9	4.0

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

Table VD-3 provides growth of euro area real GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier not seasonally adjusted. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2013 NSA relative to a year earlier and increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.1 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 0.7 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.0 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.4 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.7 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.9 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.3 percent in IIQ2013 relative to a year earlier without seasonal adjustment and declined 1.7 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier without seasonal adjustment. Growth rates in 2006 and 2007 were quite strong followed by sharp declines of 5.6 percent in IQ2009, 6.0 percent in IIQ2009 and 4.5 percent in IQ2009.

Table VD-3, Euro Area, Real GDP Percentage Change in a Quarter Relative to Same Quarter a Year Earlier, Not Seasonally Adjusted ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IV
2016	1.6
2015	1.4	1.7	1.6	1.9
2014	1.1	0.7	0.8	1.0
2013	-1.7	-0.3	0.3	0.5
2012	-0.2	-1.1	-1.1	-1.1
2011	2.9	1.9	1.5	0.1
2010	1.1	2.5	2.4	2.3
2009	-5.6	-6.0	-4.5	-2.1
2008	1.8	1.6	0.6	-2.1
2007	3.5	3.2	3.1	2.5
2006	3.7	2.7	3.1	3.6
2005	1.0	2.1	1.9	1.7
2004	2.2	2.7	2.2	2.0
2003	1.0	0.1	0.4	1.1
2002	0.1	1.1	1.6	1.0
2001	3.0	2.3	1.8	1.4
2000	4.9	4.3	3.4	2.8
1999	2.2	2.6	2.9	4.1

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

Table VD-4 provides GDP growth in IIQ2016 and relative to the same quarter a year earlier with SAWDA (seasonal and working day adjustment) and NSA (not seasonally adjusted) for the Euro zone, European Union, Japan and the US. The advance estimate of euro area GDP SAWDA for IIQ2016 in Table VD-4 is growth of 0.3 percent in IIQ2016 and 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro zone increased 1.6 percent NSA in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the European Union increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2016, increased 1.8 percent SWDA in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier NSA in IQ2016. Growth in IQ2016 was weak worldwide with somewhat stronger performance by the US in the cycle as a whole but still insufficient to reduce unemployment and underemployment (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/global-competitive-easing-or.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html) and motivate hiring (Section I and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/oscillating-valuations-of-risk.html).

Table VD-4, Euro Zone, European Union, Japan and USA, Real GDP Growth

	∆% IIQ2016/ IQ2016 SAWDA	∆% IIQ2016/ IIQ2015 SWDA	∆% IQ2016/ IQ2015 NSA
Euro Zone	0.3	1.6	1.6
European Union	0.4	1.8	1.5
Germany	0.4	1.7	1.3
France	0.0	1.4	1.4
Netherlands	0.6	1.8	1.4
Finland	0.3	1.3	1.2
Belgium	0.5	1.4	1.4
Portugal	0.2	0.8	1.4
Ireland	NA	NA	NA
Italy	0.0	0.7	0.8
Greece	0.3	-0.7	-1.3
Spain	0.7	3.2	3.5
United Kingdom	0.6	2.2	0.5
Japan	-0.3	NA	0.7
USA	0.3	1.2	NA

*SAWDA: Seasonally and Working Day Adjusted except UK, Japan and USA

***NSA

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

VE Germany. Table VE-DE provides yearly growth rates of the German economy from 1971 to 2015, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked. Germany’s GDP fell 5.6 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.1 percent in 2008. Recovery has been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.1 percent in 2010, 3.7 percent in 2011 and 0.5 percent in 2012. Growth stabilized to 0.5 percent in 2013, increasing to 1.6 percent in 2014. The German economy grew at 1.7 percent in 2015.

The Federal Statistical Agency of Germany analyzes the fall and recovery of the German economy (http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Content/Statistics/VolkswirtschaftlicheGesamtrechnungen/Inlandsprodukt/Aktuell,templateId=renderPrint.psml):

“The German economy again grew strongly in 2011. The price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.0% compared with the previous year. Accordingly, the catching-up process of the German economy continued during the second year after the economic crisis. In the course of 2011, the price-adjusted GDP again exceeded its pre-crisis level. The economic recovery occurred mainly in the first half of 2011. In 2009, Germany experienced the most serious post-war recession, when GDP suffered a historic decline of 5.1%. The year 2010 was characterised by a rapid economic recovery (+3.7%).”

Table VE-DE, Germany, GDP ∆% on Prior Year

	Price Adjusted Chain-Linked	Price- and Calendar-Adjusted Chain Linked
Average ∆% 1991-2015	1.3
Average ∆% 1991-1999	1.5
Average ∆% 2000-2007	1.4
Average ∆% 2003-2007	2.2
Average ∆% 2007-2015	0.9
Average ∆% 2009-2015	1.9
2015	1.7	1.5
2014	1.6	1.6
2013	0.5	0.6
2012	0.5	0.7
2011	3.7	3.7
2010	4.1	3.9
2009	-5.6	-5.6
2008	1.1	0.8
2007	3.3	3.4
2006	3.7	3.9
2005	0.7	0.9
2004	1.2	0.7
2003	-0.7	-0.7
2002	0.0	0.0
2001	1.7	1.8
2000	3.0	3.2
1999	2.0	1.9
1998	2.0	1.8
1997	1.8	1.9
1996	0.8	0.9
1995	1.7	1.8
1994	2.5	2.5
1993	-1.0	-1.0
1992	1.9	1.5
1991	5.1	5.2
1990	5.3	5.5
1989	3.9	4.0
1988	3.7	3.4
1987	1.4	1.3
1986	2.3	2.3
1985	2.3	2.6
1984	2.8	2.9
1983	1.6	1.5
1982	-0.4	-0.5
1981	0.5	0.6
1980	1.4	1.3
1979	4.2	4.3
1978	3.0	3.1
1977	3.3	3.5
1976	4.9	4.5
1975	-0.9	-0.9
1974	0.9	1.0
1973	4.8	5.0
1972	4.3	4.3
1971	3.1	3.0
1970	NA	NA

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/NationalAccounts.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/DomesticProduct/CurrentRevision.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Methods/NationalAccountRevision/Revision2014_BackgroundPaper.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/02/PE14_048_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/08/PE13_278_811.html https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/11/PE13_381_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/01/PE14_016_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/DE/PresseService/Presse/Pressekonferenzen/2014/BIP2013/Pressebroschuere_BIP2013.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/05/PE14_167_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/09/PE14_306_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/11/PE14_401_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_048_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_61_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/05/PE15_173_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/05/PE15_187_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/08/PE15_293_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/08/PE15_305_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/11/PE15_419_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/11/PE15_430_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/DomesticProduct/DomesticProduct.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/02/PE16_056_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/02/PE16_044_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/05/PE16_162_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/05/PE16_171_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/08/PE16_279_811.html

The Flash Germany Composite Output Index of the Markit Flash Germany PMI^®, combining manufacturing and services, increased from 54.4 in Jun to 55.3 in Jul. The index of manufacturing output reached 56.8 in Jul, increasing from 55.7 in Jun, while the index of services increased to 54.6 in Jul from 53.7 in Jun. The overall Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI^® decreased from 54.5 in Jun to 53.7 in Jul (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/1e938c5263b1412087eb9e87c55e42d8). New orders in manufacturing increased. Oliver Kolodseike, Economist at Markit, finds continuing growth of the private sector of Germany (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/1e938c5263b1412087eb9e87c55e42d8). The Markit Germany Composite Output Index of the Markit Germany Services PMI^®, combining manufacturing and services with close association with Germany’s GDP, increased from 54.4 in Jun to 55.3 in Jul (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/f15d3e79ee0d411798af3523e43d8d3d). Oliver Kolodseike, Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds steadying growth of the private sector of Germany (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/f15d3e79ee0d411798af3523e43d8d3d). The Germany Services Business Activity Index increased from 53.7 in Jun to 54.4 in Jul (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/f15d3e79ee0d411798af3523e43d8d3d). The Markit/BME Germany Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®), showing close association with Germany’s manufacturing conditions, decreased from 54.5 in Jun to 53.8 in

Jul (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/f8000f2033f14534bef3f9f3c8f6c02b). New export orders increased. Oliver Kolodseike, Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds continuing growth conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/f8000f2033f14534bef3f9f3c8f6c02b).Table DE provides the country data table for Germany.

Table DE, Germany, Economic Indicators

GDP	IIQ2016 0.4 ∆%; IIQ2016/IIQ2015 ∆% 3.1 2015/2014: 1.7% GDP ∆% 1970-2015 Blog 8/26/12 5/27/12 11/25/12 2/24/13 5/19/13 5/26/13 8/18/13 8/25/13 11/17/13 11/24/13 1/26/14 2/16/14 3/2/14 5/18/14 5/25/14 8/17/14 9/7/14 11/16/14 11/30/14 2/15/15 3/1/15 5/17/15 5/24/15 8/16/15 8/30/15 11/22/15 11/29/15 2/14/16 2/28/16 5/15/16 5/29/16 8/14/16
Consumer Price Index	Jul month NSA ∆%: 0.3 Jul 12-month NSA ∆%: 0.4 Blog 8/14/16
Producer Price Index	Jun month ∆%: 0.4 NSA, 0.1 CSA 12-month NSA ∆%: -2.2 Blog 7/24/16
Industrial Production	MFG Jun month CSA ∆%: 1.5 12-month NSA: 3.7 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Machine Orders	MFG Jun month ∆%: -0.4 Jun 12-month ∆%: -1.0 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Retail Sales	May Month ∆% 0.9 Apr -0.3 12-Month May % 2.6 Apr 2.7 Earlier Data: Blog 4/5/15
Employment Report	Unemployment Rate SA Apr 4.2% Blog 7/31/16
Trade Balance	Exports Jun 12-month NSA ∆%: 1.2 Imports Jun 12 months NSA ∆%: 0.3 Exports Jun month CSA ∆%: 0.3; Imports Jun month CSA 1.0 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15

Links to blog comments in Table DE: 7/31/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/business-fixed-investment-has-been-soft.html

7/24/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/unresolved-us-balance-of-payments.html

7/17/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/oscillating-valuations-of-risk.html

7/3/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/financial-asset-values-rebound-from.html

5/29/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/appropriate-for-fed-to-increase.html

5/15/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

2/28/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

2/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/subdued-foreign-growth-and-dollar.html

11/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/dollar-revaluation-constraining.html

11/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-liftoff-followed-by.html

08/30/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/fluctuations-of-global-financial.html

08/16/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/exchange-rate-and-financial-asset.html

5/24/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/interest-rate-policy-and-dollar.html

5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

9/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/competitive-monetary-policy-and.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

1/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/01/capital-flows-exchange-rates-and.html

11/24/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html

8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

Table VE-1 provides percentage change of Germany’s GDP in one quarter relative to the prior quarter from 1999 to 2016. Germany’s GDP contracted during four consecutive quarters from IIQ2008 to IQ2009. The deepest contraction was 4.5 percent in IQ2009. Growth was quite strong from IIIQ2009 to IQ2011 for cumulative growth of 8.1 percent in seven quarters or at the average rate of 1.1 percent per quarter, which is equivalent to 4.5 percent per year. Economic growth decelerated in IIQ2011 to 0.2 percent and 0.4 percent in IIIQ2011. The economy grew 0.0 percent in IVQ2011 and grew 0.4 percent in IQ2012 but at 0.1 percent in IIQ2012. GDP growth in IIIQ2012 was 0.2 percent relative to IIQ2012. Germany’s GDP contracted 0.5 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IIIQ2012. GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IQ2013 and increased 0.9 percent in IIQ2013. Growth of GDP was 0.4 percent in IIIQ2013 and 0.4 percent in IVQ2013. Germany’s growth was robust at 0.6 percent in IQ2014 or 2.2 percent in annual equivalent. GDP contracted 0.1 percent in IIQ2014. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2014. The GDP of Germany increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2014. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2015. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2015 and grew 0.4 percent in IVQ2015. GDP grew 0.7 percent in IQ2016, increasing 0.4 percent in IIQ2016. Using seasonally and calendar adjusted data (https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/DomesticProduct/DomesticProduct.html). Germany’s GDP contracted 6.9 percent from IQ2008 to IQ2009. GDP grew 15.1 percent from IQ2009 to IIQ2016 at the annual equivalent rate of 2.0 percent. GDP grew 7.2 percent from IQ2008 to IIQ2016 at the annual equivalent rate of 0.8 percent. The Federal Statistical Office of Germany released estimates for IIQ2016 on Aug 12, 2016, with revisions since 2012 (https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/08/PE16_279_811.html). Net trade contributed to growth in IIQ2016, according to preliminary results (https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/08/PE16_279_811.html) with contributions by household final consumption expenditure and government final consumption expenditure while gross capital formation subtracted from growth.

Table VE-1, Germany Quarter GDP ∆% Relative to Prior Quarter, Seasonally and Calendar Adjusted 

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IV
2016	0.7	0.4
2015	0.2	0.5	0.2	0.4
2014	0.6	-0.1	0.3	0.8
2013	-0.2	0.9	0.4	0.4
2012	0.4	0.1	0.2	-0.5
2011	1.9	0.2	0.4	0.0
2010	0.8	2.0	0.8	0.8
2009	-4.5	0.1	0.6	0.9
2008	0.8	-0.3	-0.4	-2.0
2007	0.4	0.7	0.8	0.3
2006	1.0	1.6	1.0	1.3
2005	-0.2	0.7	0.8	0.3
2004	0.0	0.3	-0.2	0.1
2003	-1.2	0.0	0.5	0.4
2002	-0.4	0.2	0.5	-0.2
2001	1.7	0.1	-0.3	0.2
2000	1.0	1.0	-0.2	0.1
1999	0.9	0.1	1.1	1.2

Seasonal and calendar adjusted Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/05/PE16_171_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/DomesticProduct/DomesticProduct.html

Table VE-2 provides percentage changes of Germany’s GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Growth was weak in the recovery from the recession of 2001 through 2005, as in most of the euro area (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 116-46). Germany’s economy then grew robustly in 2006 and 2007 until the global recession after 2007. Germany recovered with strong growth in 2010 and vigorous 6.0 percent in IQ2011. The economy decelerated in the final three quarters of 2011, growing 1.6 percent in IQ2012 relative to IQ2011. Growth decelerated further to 0.4 percent in IIQ2012 without calendar adjustment and 0.9 percent with calendar adjustment and to 0.2 percent in IIIQ2012. Growth in IVQ2012 relative to IVQ2011 was minus 0.1 percent. GDP fell 1.5 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.9 percent in IIQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.2 percent in IIIQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 1.4 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 2.6 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 0.9 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.2 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.7 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.3 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.8 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.8 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 2.1 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.5 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 3.1 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier.

Table VE-2, Germany, Quarter GDP ∆% Relative to Same Quarter a Year Earlier, Price Adjusted NCSA 

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IV
2016	1.5	3.1
2015	1.3	1.8	1.8	2.1
2014	2.6	0.9	1.2	1.7
2013	-1.5	0.9	1.2	1.4
2012	1.6	0.4	0.2	-0.1
2011	6.0	3.7	3.2	1.8
2010	2.6	4.7	4.6	4.4
2009	-6.6	-7.9	-5.6	-2.4
2008	2.1	3.1	1.1	-1.9
2007	4.3	3.4	3.3	2.1
2006	4.3	2.4	3.5	4.6
2005	-0.7	1.3	1.3	1.0
2004	1.6	1.6	0.6	0.9
2003	-0.4	-1.3	-0.8	-0.3
2002	-1.2	0.2	1.1	-0.1
2001	2.4	1.6	1.5	1.4
2000	4.4	4.0	2.6	1.0
1999	0.9	1.7	2.1	3.3

Price adjusted NSA Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/05/PE16_171_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/DomesticProduct/DomesticProduct.html

There are strong calendar effects in economic activity in Germany. Table VE-3 provides Germany’s percentage change in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier adjusting for price changes and calendar effects.

Table VE-3, Germany, Quarter GDP ∆% Relative to Same Quarter a Year Earlier, Calendar and Price Adjusted NSA 

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IV
2016	1.9	1.8
2015	1.2	1.8	1.7	1.3
2014	2.4	1.3	1.1	1.6
2013	-0.3	0.5	0.7	1.5
2012	1.1	0.9	0.7	0.1
2011	5.7	3.6	3.3	2.3
2010	2.5	4.3	4.6	4.3

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/05/PE16_171_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/DomesticProduct/DomesticProduct.html

Table VE-4 provides yearly growth rates of the German economy from 1971 to 2015, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked. Germany’s GDP fell 5.6 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.1 percent in 2008. Recovery has been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.1 percent in 2010, 3.7 percent in 2011 and 0.5 percent in 2012. Growth stabilized to 0.5 percent in 2013, increasing to 1.6 percent in 2014. The German economy grew at 1.7 percent in 2015.

The Federal Statistical Agency of Germany analyzes the fall and recovery of the German economy (http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Content/Statistics/VolkswirtschaftlicheGesamtrechnungen/Inlandsprodukt/Aktuell,templateId=renderPrint.psml):

“The German economy again grew strongly in 2011. The price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.0% compared with the previous year. Accordingly, the catching-up process of the German economy continued during the second year after the economic crisis. In the course of 2011, the price-adjusted GDP again exceeded its pre-crisis level. The economic recovery occurred mainly in the first half of 2011. In 2009, Germany experienced the most serious post-war recession, when GDP suffered a historic decline of 5.1%. The year 2010 was characterised by a rapid economic recovery (+3.7%).

Table VE-4, Germany, GDP ∆% on Prior Year

	Price Adjusted Chain-Linked	Price- and Calendar-Adjusted Chain Linked
Average ∆% 1991-2015	1.3
Average ∆% 1991-1999	1.5
Average ∆% 2000-2007	1.4
Average ∆% 2003-2007	2.2
Average ∆% 2007-2015	0.9
Average ∆% 2009-2015	1.9
2015	1.7	1.5
2014	1.6	1.6
2013	0.5	0.6
2012	0.5	0.7
2011	3.7	3.7
2010	4.1	3.9
2009	-5.6	-5.6
2008	1.1	0.8
2007	3.3	3.4
2006	3.7	3.9
2005	0.7	0.9
2004	1.2	0.7
2003	-0.7	-0.7
2002	0.0	0.0
2001	1.7	1.8
2000	3.0	3.2
1999	2.0	1.9
1998	2.0	1.8
1997	1.8	1.9
1996	0.8	0.9
1995	1.7	1.8
1994	2.5	2.5
1993	-1.0	-1.0
1992	1.9	1.5
1991	5.1	5.2
1990	5.3	5.5
1989	3.9	4.0
1988	3.7	3.4
1987	1.4	1.3
1986	2.3	2.3
1985	2.3	2.6
1984	2.8	2.9
1983	1.6	1.5
1982	-0.4	-0.5
1981	0.5	0.6
1980	1.4	1.3
1979	4.2	4.3
1978	3.0	3.1
1977	3.3	3.5
1976	4.9	4.5
1975	-0.9	-0.9
1974	0.9	1.0
1973	4.8	5.0
1972	4.3	4.3
1971	3.1	3.0
1970	NA	NA

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/NationalAccounts.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/DomesticProduct/CurrentRevision.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Methods/NationalAccountRevision/Revision2014_BackgroundPaper.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/02/PE14_048_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/08/PE13_278_811.html https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/11/PE13_381_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/01/PE14_016_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/DE/PresseService/Presse/Pressekonferenzen/2014/BIP2013/Pressebroschuere_BIP2013.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/05/PE14_167_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/09/PE14_306_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/11/PE14_401_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_048_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_61_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/05/PE15_173_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/05/PE15_187_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/08/PE15_293_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/08/PE15_305_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/11/PE15_419_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/11/PE15_430_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/DomesticProduct/DomesticProduct.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/02/PE16_056_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/02/PE16_044_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/05/PE16_162_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/05/PE16_171_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/08/PE16_279_811.html

Chart VE-1, Germany, GDP, Current Prices, Billion Euro

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-1 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Federal Statistics Agency of Germany) provides GDP at current prices from 2007 to 2016. The German economy is productive with significant dynamism over the long term. There are fluctuations in an increasing trend since 2009. Growth is oscillating.

Chart VE-1A, US, Gross Domestic Product, Current Prices, Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates, Billions of Dollars, 2006-2016

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis

http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm

Chart VE-2 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Federal Statistics Agency of Germany) provides the index of price-adjusted chain-linked GDP of Germany from 2011 to 2015. Germany was growing rapidly before the global contraction and rebounded with significant strength along a strong upward trend that could be increasing again.

Chart VE-2, Germany, Gross Domestic Product Price Adjusted, Trend and Trend Ends

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-2A provides US real GDP, seasonally adjusted at annual rates (SAAR) in billions of chained dollars of 2009 from 2011 to 2016.

Chart VE-2A, US, Real Gross Domestic Product, Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates, Billions of Chained 2009 Dollars, 2011-2016

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm

VF France. Table VF-FR provides growth rates of GDP of France with the estimates of Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE). The long-term rate of GDP growth of France from IVQ1949 to IIQ2016 is quite high at 3.2 percent. France’s growth rates were quite high in the four decades of the 1950s, 1960, 1970s and 1980s with an average growth rate of 4.0 percent compounding the average rates in the decades and discounting to one decade. The growth impulse diminished with 2.0 percent in the 1990s and 1.8 percent from 2000 to 2007. The average growth rate from 2000 to 2015, using fourth quarter data, is 1.1 percent because of the sharp impact of the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. Cobet and Wilson (2002) provide estimates of output per hour and unit labor costs in national currency and US dollars for the US, Japan and Germany from 1950 to 2000 (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 137-44). The average yearly rate of productivity change from 1950 to 2000 was 2.9 percent in the US, 6.3 percent for Japan and 4.7 percent for Germany while unit labor costs in USD increased at 2.6 percent in the US, 4.7 percent in Japan and 4.3 percent in Germany. From 1995 to 2000, output per hour increased at the average yearly rate of 4.6 percent in the US, 3.9 percent in Japan and 2.6 percent in Germany while unit labor costs in US fell at minus 0.7 percent in the US, 4.3 percent in Japan and 7.5 percent in Germany. There was increase in productivity growth in the G7 in Japan and France in the second half of the 1990s but significantly lower than the acceleration of 1.3 percentage points per year in the US. Lucas (2011May) compares growth of the G7 economies (US, UK, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Canada) and Spain, finding that catch-up growth with earlier rates for the US and UK stalled in the 1970s.

Table VF-FR, France, Average Growth Rates of GDP Fourth Quarter, 1949-2014

Period	Average ∆%
1949-2016	3.2
2007-2016**	0.5
2007-2015*	0.5
2007-2014	0.3
2000-2015	1.1
2000-2014	1.1
2000-2007	1.8
1990-1999	2.0
1980-1989	2.6
1970-1979	3.7
1960-1969	5.7
1950-1959	4.2

*IVQ2007 to IVQ2015 **IVQ2007 to IIQ2016

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=123&date=20160729

The Markit Flash France Composite Output Index increased from 49.6 in Jun to 50.0 in Jul (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/b6f2d99ff3b048b48b82a0ff0f27dfa0) Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds stabilizing activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/b6f2d99ff3b048b48b82a0ff0f27dfa0). The Markit France Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing with close association with French GDP, increased from 49.6 in Jun to 50.1 in Jul, indicating stabilizing activity of the private sector (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/faf5c73b75604961a2e4d86b3b676dd6). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the France Services PMI^®, finds new growth (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/faf5c73b75604961a2e4d86b3b676dd6). The Markit France Services Activity index increased from 49.9 in Jun to 50.5 in Jul (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/faf5c73b75604961a2e4d86b3b676dd6). The Markit France Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^® increased to 48.6 in Jul from 48.3 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/d3bd88a2bcc44e32beef8a037f685cc2). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the France Manufacturing PMI^®, finds moderate contraction in manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/d3bd88a2bcc44e32beef8a037f685cc2). Table FR provides the country data table for France.

Table FR, France, Economic Indicators

CPI	Jul month ∆% -0.4 12 months ∆%: 0.2 8/14/16
PPI	Jun month ∆%: 0.4 Jun 12 months ∆%: -3.1 Blog 7/31/16
GDP Growth	IIQ2016/IQ2016 ∆%: 0.0 IIQ2016/IIQ2015 ∆%: 1.4 Blog 3/31/13 5/19/12 6/30/13 9/29/13 11/17/13 12/29/13 2/16/14 4/6/14 5/18/14 6/29/14 8/17/14 9/28/14 11/16/14 12/28/14 2/15/15 3/29/15 5/17/15 6/28/15 8/16/15 9/27/15 11/15/15 12/27/15 1/31/16 2/28/16 3/27/16 5/1/16 6/5/16 06/26/16 8/7/16
Industrial Production	Jun ∆%: Manufacturing -0.8 Quarter ∆%: -0.1 YOY 0.4 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Consumer Spending	Manufactured Goods Jun ∆%: -1.2 May 12-Month Manufactured Goods ∆%: 0.6 Earlier Data: Blog 4/5/15
Employment	Unemployment Rate: IQ2016 9.9% Blog 5/22/16
Trade Balance	Jun Exports ∆%: month -1.8, 12 months -7.5 Imports ∆%: month 0.1, 12 months -5.1 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Confidence Indicators	Historical average 100 Jun Mfg Business Climate 103.0 Earlier Data: Blog 3/29/15

Links to blog comments in Table FR: 8/7/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/global-competitive-easing-or.html

7/31/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/business-fixed-investment-has-been-soft.html

7/17/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/oscillating-valuations-of-risk.html

7/3/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/financial-asset-values-rebound-from.html

6/26/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/of-course-considerable-uncertainty.html

6/5/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/financial-turbulence-twenty-four.html

5/22/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/most-fomc-participants-judged-that-if.html

5/1/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/economic-activity-appears-to-have.html

3/27/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/contraction-of-united-states-corporate.html

2/28/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

1/31/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/closely-monitoring-global-economic-and.html

12/27/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/dollar-revaluation-and-decreasing.html

11/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-policy-conundrum-recovery.html

9/27/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/monetary-policy-designed-on-measurable.html

08/16/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/exchange-rate-and-financial-asset.html

6/28/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/international-valuations-of-financial.html

5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

9/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

12/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/collapse-of-united-states-dynamism-of.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

6/30/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/tapering-quantitative-easing-policy-and.html

5/19/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/word-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

VG Italy. Table VG-IT provides revised percentage changes of GDP in Italy of quarter on prior quarter and quarter on same quarter a year earlier. In IIQ2016, GDP changed 0.0 percent and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2015, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2015 and 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2014 and fell 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 and fell 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.1 percent in IIQ2014 and declined 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy decreased 0.2 percent in IQ2014 and fell 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2013 and fell 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2013 and fell 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IIQ2013, continuing eight consecutive quarterly declines, and fell 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.9 percent in IQ2013 and declined 2.7 percent relative to IQ2012. GDP had been growing during six consecutive quarters but at very low rates from IQ2010 to IIQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell in eight consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IIQ2013 at increasingly higher rates of contraction from 0.5 percent in IIIQ2011 to 1.0 percent in IVQ2011, 1.0 percent in IQ2012, 0.7 percent in IIQ2012 and 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012. The pace of decline accelerated to minus 0.6 percent in IVQ2012 and minus 0.9 percent in IQ2013. GDP contracted cumulatively 5.2 percent in eight consecutive quarterly contractions from IIIQ2011 to IIQ2013 at the annual equivalent rate of minus 2.6 percent. The total contraction in the 13 quarters including IVQ2013, IQ2014, IIQ2014, IIIQ2014 and IVQ2014 accumulates to 5.7 percent. The yearly rate has fallen from 2.3 percent in IVQ2010 to minus 2.7 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.7 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.0 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.4 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.9 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.1 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and fell 0.2 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.4 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and fell 0.4 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.1 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.0 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of Italy in IIIQ2015 is lower by 8.9 percent relative to IQ2008. The fiscal adjustment of Italy is significantly more difficult with the economy not growing especially on the prospects of increasing government revenue. The strategy is for reforms to improve productivity, facilitating future fiscal consolidation.

Table VG-IT, Italy, GDP ∆%

	Quarter ∆% Relative to Preceding Quarter	Quarter ∆% Relative to Same Quarter Year Earlier
IIQ2016	0.0	0.7
IQ2016	0.3	1.0
IVQ2015	0.2	1.1
IIIQ2015	0.2	0.8
IIQ2015	0.3	0.5
IQ2015	0.4	0.1
IVQ2014	-0.1	-0.4
IIIQ2014	-0.1	-0.4
IIQ2014	-0.1	-0.2
IQ2014	-0.2	-0.1
IVQ2013	-0.1	-0.9
IIIQ2013	0.2	-1.4
IIQ2013	-0.1	-2.0
IQ2013	-0.9	-2.7
IVQ2012	-0.6	-2.7
IIIQ2012	-0.5	-3.2
IIQ2012	-0.7	-3.2
IQ2012	-1.0	-2.3
IVQ2011	-1.0	-1.0
IIIQ2011	-0.5	0.4
IIQ2011	0.2	1.4
IQ2011	0.3	2.1
IVQ2010	0.4	2.3
IIIQ2010	0.5	1.8
IIQ2010	0.7	1.9
IQ2010	0.5	0.7
IVQ2009	-0.1	-3.5
IIIQ2009	0.4	-5.0
IIQ2009	-0.3	-6.6
IQ2009	-3.5	-6.9
IVQ2008	-1.6	-3.0
IIIQ2008	-1.3	-1.9
IIQ2008	-0.5	-0.2
IQ2008	0.5	0.5
IV2007	-0.4	0.1
IIIQ2007	0.3	1.7
IIQ2007	0.2	2.0
IQ2007	0.0	2.4

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/189844

The Markit Italy Business Activity Index increased from 51.9 in Jun to 52.0 in Jul (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/b6cab7624c7e4479a262a60137a955a6). Phil Smith, Economist at Markit and author of the Italy Services PMI^®, finds steady growth (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/b6cab7624c7e4479a262a60137a955a6). The Markit Italy Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®), decreased from 53.5 in Jun to 51.2 in Jul (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/b34fe9e56a644bb0a29ecf6766472e9e). New export orders continued to increase. Phil Smith, Economist at Markit and author of the Italian Manufacturing PMI^®, finds softer growth in manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/b34fe9e56a644bb0a29ecf6766472e9e). Table IT provides the country data table for Italy.

Table IT, Italy, Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index	Jul month ∆% 0.2 12 months ∆%: -0.1 8/14/16
Producer Price Index	Jun month ∆%: 0.5 Jun 12-month ∆%: -4.4 Blog 8/7/16
GDP Growth	IIQ2016/IQ2016 SA ∆%: 0.0 IIQ2016/IIQ2015 NSA ∆%: 0.7 Blog 3/17/13 6/16/13 8/11/13 9/15/13 11/17/13 12/15/13 2/16/14 3/16/14 5/18/14 6/15/14 8/10/14 8/31/14 10/19/14 11/16/14 12/7/14 2/15/15 3/15/15 5/17/15 5/31/15 8/16/15 9/6/15 11/15/15 12/6/15 2/14/16 3/6/16 5/15/16 6/5/16 8/14/16
Labor Report	Jun 2016 Participation rate 64.9% Employment ratio 57.3% Unemployment rate 11.6% Youth Unemployment 36.5% Blog 7/31/16
Industrial Production	Jun month ∆%: -0.4 12 months CA ∆%: -1.0 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Retail Sales	May month ∆%: 0.3 May 12-month ∆%: -1.3 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15
Business Confidence	Mfg Jul 103.1, Mar 102.2 Construction Jul 126.2, Mar 118.4 Earlier Data: Blog 4/5/15
Trade Balance	Balance Jun SA €4641 million Exports Jun month SA ∆%: -0.4; Imports month ∆%: 0.0 Exports 12 months Jun NSA ∆%: -0.5 Imports 12 months NSA ∆%: -6.1 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15

Links to blog comments in Table IT: 8/7/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/global-competitive-easing-or.html

7/31/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/business-fixed-investment-has-been-soft.html

7/17/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/oscillating-valuations-of-risk.html

7/3/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/financial-asset-values-rebound-from.html

6/5/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/financial-turbulence-twenty-four.html

5/15/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

3/6/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/twenty-five-million-unemployed-or.html

2/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/subdued-foreign-growth-and-dollar.html

12/6/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/liftoff-of-fed-funds-rate-followed-by.html

11/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-policy-conundrum-recovery.html

9/6/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what.html

08/16/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/exchange-rate-and-financial-asset.html

5/31/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/dollar-revaluation-squeezing-corporate.html

5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

12/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/financial-risks-twenty-six-million.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

10/19/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/imf-view-squeeze-of-economic-activity.html

8/31/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitical-and-financial-risks.html

8/10/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/volatility-of-valuations-of-risk_10.html

6/15/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financialgeopolitical-risks-recovery.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

8/11/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/recovery-without-hiring-loss-of-full.html

6/16/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/recovery-without-hiring-seven-million.html

3/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

Table VG-1 provides revised percentage changes of GDP in Italy of quarter on prior quarter and quarter on same quarter a year earlier. In IIQ2016, GDP changed 0.0 percent and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2015, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2015 and 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2014 and fell 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 and fell 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.1 percent in IIQ2014 and declined 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy decreased 0.2 percent in IQ2014 and fell 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2013 and fell 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2013 and fell 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IIQ2013, continuing eight consecutive quarterly declines, and fell 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.9 percent in IQ2013 and declined 2.7 percent relative to IQ2012. GDP had been growing during six consecutive quarters but at very low rates from IQ2010 to IIQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell in eight consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IIQ2013 at increasingly higher rates of contraction from 0.5 percent in IIIQ2011 to 1.0 percent in IVQ2011, 1.0 percent in IQ2012, 0.7 percent in IIQ2012 and 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012. The pace of decline accelerated to minus 0.6 percent in IVQ2012 and minus 0.9 percent in IQ2013. GDP contracted cumulatively 5.2 percent in eight consecutive quarterly contractions from IIIQ2011 to IIQ2013 at the annual equivalent rate of minus 2.6 percent. The total contraction in the 13 quarters including IVQ2013, IQ2014, IIQ2014, IIIQ2014 and IVQ2014 accumulates to 5.7 percent. The yearly rate has fallen from 2.3 percent in IVQ2010 to minus 2.7 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.7 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.0 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.4 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.9 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.1 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and fell 0.2 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.4 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and fell 0.4 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.1 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.0 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of Italy in IIIQ2015 is lower by 8.9 percent relative to IQ2008. The fiscal adjustment of Italy is significantly more difficult with the economy not growing especially on the prospects of increasing government revenue. The strategy is for reforms to improve productivity, facilitating future fiscal consolidation.

Table VG-1, Italy, GDP ∆%

	Quarter ∆% Relative to Preceding Quarter	Quarter ∆% Relative to Same Quarter Year Earlier
IIQ2016	0.0	0.7
IQ2016	0.3	1.0
IVQ2015	0.2	1.1
IIIQ2015	0.2	0.8
IIQ2015	0.3	0.5
IQ2015	0.4	0.1
IVQ2014	-0.1	-0.4
IIIQ2014	-0.1	-0.4
IIQ2014	-0.1	-0.2
IQ2014	-0.2	-0.1
IVQ2013	-0.1	-0.9
IIIQ2013	0.2	-1.4
IIQ2013	-0.1	-2.0
IQ2013	-0.9	-2.7
IVQ2012	-0.6	-2.7
IIIQ2012	-0.5	-3.2
IIQ2012	-0.7	-3.2
IQ2012	-1.0	-2.3
IVQ2011	-1.0	-1.0
IIIQ2011	-0.5	0.4
IIQ2011	0.2	1.4
IQ2011	0.3	2.1
IVQ2010	0.4	2.3
IIIQ2010	0.5	1.8
IIQ2010	0.7	1.9
IQ2010	0.5	0.7
IVQ2009	-0.1	-3.5
IIIQ2009	0.4	-5.0
IIQ2009	-0.3	-6.6
IQ2009	-3.5	-6.9
IVQ2008	-1.6	-3.0
IIIQ2008	-1.3	-1.9
IIQ2008	-0.5	-0.2
IQ2008	0.5	0.5
IV2007	-0.4	0.1
IIIQ2007	0.3	1.7
IIQ2007	0.2	2.0
IQ2007	0.0	2.4

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/189844

Chart VG-1 of the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) provides growth of GDP of Italy at market prices. The year on year rate of growth pulled strongly out of the contraction. There is evident trend of deceleration with increasingly sharper contraction and mild moderation in 2013 and 2014. GDP increased in IQ2015, IIQ2015, IIIQ2015 and IVQ2015. GDP increased in IQ2016 and stabilized in IIQ2016.

Chart VG-1, Italy, GDP at Market Prices, ∆% on Same Quarter Year Earlier

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/

VH United Kingdom. Annual data in Table VH-UK show the strong impact of the global recession in the UK with decline of GDP of 4.3 percent in 2009 after dropping 0.6 percent in 2008. Recovery of 1.9 percent in 2010 is relatively low in comparison with annual growth rates in 2007 and earlier years. Growth was only 1.5 percent in 2011 and 1.3 percent in 2012. Growth increased to 1.9 percent in 2013 and 3.1 percent in 2014. Growth fell to 2.2 percent in 2015.  The bottom part of Table VH-UK provides average growth rates of UK GDP since 1948. The UK economy grew at 2.6 percent per year on average between 1948 and 2015, which is relatively high for an advanced economy. The growth rate of GDP between 2000 and 2007 is higher at 2.7 percent. Growth in the current cyclical expansion from 2010 to 2015 has been only at 2.0 percent as advanced economies struggle with weak internal demand and world trade. GDP in 2015 is higher by 7.0 percent relative to 2007 while it would have been 23.8 higher at trend of 2.7 percent as from 2000 to 2007.

Table VH-UK, UK, Gross Domestic Product, ∆%

	∆% on Prior Year
1998	3.2
1999	3.3
2000	3.7
2001	2.7
2002	2.4
2003	3.5
2004	2.5
2005	3.0
2006	2.5
2007	2.6
2008	-0.6
2009	-4.3
2010	1.9
2011	1.5
2012	1.3
2013	1.9
2014	3.1
2015	2.2
Average Growth Rates ∆% per Year
1948-2015	2.6
1950-1959	3.1
1960-1969	3.1
1970-1979	2.6
1980-1989	3.2
1990-1999	2.2
2000-2007	2.7
2007-2013*	1.6
2007-2014*	4.7
2007-2015	0.9
2000-2015	1.7

*Absolute change from 2007 to 2013 and 2007 to 2014

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/grossdomesticproductpreliminaryestimate/aprtojune2016

The Markit Flash UK PMI^® Composite Output Index fell from 52.4 in Jun to 47.7 in Jul, which is the lowest in 87 months (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/b68c3686a48c40198505b81e4e55cd81). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds the index suggests pace of contraction of GDP at 0.4 percent in IIIQ2016 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/b68c3686a48c40198505b81e4e55cd81). The Business Activity Index of the Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI^® decreased from 52.3 in Jun to 47.4 in Jul (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/77535660ee3f4fbdacfabe4b71a45ad2). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds the combined indices consistent with the UK economy contracting at 0.4 percent (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/77535660ee3f4fbdacfabe4b71a45ad2). The Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®) decreased to 48.2 in Jul from 52.1 in Jun (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/0c05196aef1a446f94f249eef9bf2ea6). New export orders increased. Rob Dobson, Senior Economist at Markit that compiles the Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI^®, finds deteriorating manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/0c05196aef1a446f94f249eef9bf2ea6). Table UK provides the economic indicators for the United Kingdom.

Table UK, UK Economic Indicators

CPI	Jun month ∆%: 0.2 Jun 12-month ∆%: 0.5 Blog 7/24/16
Output/Input Prices	Output Prices: Jun 12-month NSA ∆%: -0.4; excluding food, petroleum ∆%: 0.7 Input Prices: Jun 12-month NSA ∆%: -0.5 Excluding ∆%: -0.4 Blog 7/24/16
GDP Growth	IIQ2016 prior quarter ∆% 0.6; year earlier same quarter ∆%: 2.2 Blog 3/31/13 4/28/13 5/26/13 7/28/13 8/25/13 9/29/13 10/27/13 12/1/13 12/22/13 2/2/14 3/2/14 4/6/14 5/4/14 5/25/14 6/29/14 7/27/14 8/17/14 10/5/14 10/26/14 11/30/14 12/28/14 2/1/15 3/1/15 4/5/15 5/3/15 5/31/15 7/5/15 8/2/15 9/6/15 10/4/15 11/1/15 11/29/15 12/27/15 1/31/16 2/28/16 4/3/16 5/1/16 5/29/16 7/3/16 7/31/16
Industrial Production	Jun 2016/Jun 2015 ∆%: Production Industries 1.6; Manufacturing 0.9 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Retail Sales	Jun month ∆%: -0.9 Jun 12-month ∆%: 4.3 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15
Labor Market	Mar-May 2016 Unemployment Rate: 5.0% Blog 7/24/16 LMGDP 5/17/15
GDP and the Labor Market	IQ2015 Employment 104.8 IQ2008 =100 GDP IQ15=104.0 IQ2008=100 Blog 5/17/14
Trade Balance	Balance SA Jun minus ₤5084 million Exports Jun ∆%: 2.4; Apr-Jun ∆%: 2.7 Imports Jun ∆%: 4.0 Apr-Jun ∆%: 7.2 EARLIER DATA: Blog 4/12/15

Links to blog comments in Table UK: 7/31/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/business-fixed-investment-has-been-soft.html

7/24/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/unresolved-us-balance-of-payments.html

7/3/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/financial-asset-values-rebound-from.html

5/29/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/appropriate-for-fed-to-increase.html

5/1/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/economic-activity-appears-to-have.html

4/3/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/04/proceeding-cautiously-in-monetary.html

2/28/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

1/31/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/closely-monitoring-global-economic-and.html

12/27/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/dollar-revaluation-and-decreasing.html

11/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/dollar-revaluation-constraining.html

11/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-increase-considered.html

10/4/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/10/labor-market-uncertainty-and-interest.html

9/6/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what.html

08/02/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/turbulence-of-valuations-of-financial.html

7/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/07/turbulence-of-financial-asset.html

5/31/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/dollar-revaluation-squeezing-corporate.html

5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html

5/3/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/dollar-devaluation-and-carry-trade.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html

12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

10/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/financial-oscillations-world-inflation.html

10/5/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/world-financial-turbulence-twenty-seven.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

7/27/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

5/4/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html

4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html

3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html

2/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

12/22/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html

12/1/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/exit-risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html

10/27/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/twenty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html

9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html

7/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html

5/26/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

4/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_28.html

03/31/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016.