Fluctuating Valuations of Risk Financial Assets, Twenty Six Million Unemployed or Underemployed, Stagnating Real Wages, United States International Trade, World Cyclical Slow Growth and Global Recession Risk: Part IV

 

Fluctuating Valuations of Risk Financial Assets, Twenty Six Million Unemployed or Underemployed, Stagnating Real Wages, United States International Trade, World Cyclical Slow Growth and Global Recession Risk

Carlos M. Pelaez

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015

I Twenty Six Million Unemployed or Underemployed

IA1 Summary of the Employment Situation

IA2 Number of People in Job Stress

IA3 Long-term and Cyclical Comparison of Employment

IA4 Job Creation

IB Stagnating Real Wages

II United States International Trade

III World Financial Turbulence

IIIA Financial Risks

IIIE Appendix Euro Zone Survival Risk

IIIF Appendix on Sovereign Bond Valuation

IV Global Inflation

V World Economic Slowdown

VA United States

VB Japan

VC China

VD Euro Area

VE Germany

VF France

VG Italy

VH United Kingdom

VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets

VII Economic Indicators

VIII Interest Rates

IX Conclusion

References

Appendixes

Appendix I The Great Inflation

IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies

IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact

IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort

IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis

IIIGA Monetary Policy with Deficit Financing of Economic Growth

IIIGB Adjustment during the Debt Crisis of the 1980s

V World Economic Slowdown. Table V-1 is constructed with the database of the IMF (http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28) to show GDP in dollars in 2012 and the growth rate of real GDP of the world and selected regional countries from 2013 to 2016. The data illustrate the concept often repeated of “two-speed recovery” of the world economy from the recession of 2007 to 2009. The IMF has changed its forecast of the world economy to 3.3 percent in 2013 but accelerating to 3.3 percent in 2014, 3.8 percent in 2015 and 4.0 percent in 2016. Slow-speed recovery occurs in the “major advanced economies” of the G7 that account for $34,523 billion of world output of $72,688 billion, or 47.5 percent, but are projected to grow at much lower rates than world output, 1.9 percent on average from 2013 to 2016 in contrast with 3.6 percent for the world as a whole. While the world would grow 15.2 percent in the four years from 2013 to 2016, the G7 as a whole would grow 8.5 percent. The difference in dollars of 2012 is rather high: growing by 15.2 percent would add around $11.0 trillion of output to the world economy, or roughly, two times the output of the economy of Japan of $5,938 billion but growing by 8.0 percent would add $5.8 trillion of output to the world, or about the output of Japan in 2012. The “two speed” concept is in reference to the growth of the 150 countries labeled as emerging and developing economies (EMDE) with joint output in 2012 of $27,512 billion, or 37.8 percent of world output. The EMDEs would grow cumulatively 20.7 percent or at the average yearly rate of 4.8 percent, contributing $5.7 trillion from 2013 to 2016 or the equivalent of somewhat less than the GDP of $8,387 billion of China in 2012. The final four countries in Table V-1 often referred as BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China), are large, rapidly growing emerging economies. Their combined output in 2012 adds to $14,511 billion, or 19.9 percent of world output, which is equivalent to 42.0 percent of the combined output of the major advanced economies of the G7.

Table V-1, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Real GDP Growth

	GDP USD 2012	Real GDP ∆% 2013	Real GDP ∆% 2014	Real GDP ∆% 2015	Real GDP ∆% 2016
World	72,688	3.3	3.3	3.8	4.0
G7	34,523	1.5	1.7	2.3	2.3
Canada	1,709	2.0	2.3	2.4	2.4
France	2,688	0.3	0.4	1.0	1.6
DE	3,428	0.5	1.4	1.5	1.8
Italy	2,014	-1.9	-0.2	0.9	1.3
Japan	5,938	1.5	0.9	0.8	0.8
UK	2,471	1.7	3.2	2.7	2.4
US	16,163	2.2	2.2	3.1	3.0
Euro Area	12,220	-0.4	0.8	1.3	1.7
DE	3,428	0.5	1.4	1.5	1.8
France	2,688	0.3	0.4	1.0	1.6
Italy	2,014	-1.9	-0.2	0.9	1.3
POT	212	-1.4	1.0	1.5	1.7
Ireland	211	-0.3	1.7	2.5	2.5
Greece	249	-3.9	0.6	2.9	3.7
Spain	1,323	-1.2	1.3	1.7	1.8
EMDE	27,512	4.7	4.4	5.0	5.2
Brazil	2,248	2.5	0.3	1.4	2.2
Russia	2,017	1.3	0.2	0.5	1.5
India	1,859	5.0	5.6	6.4	6.5
China	8,387	7.7	7.4	7.1	6.8

Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries); POT: Portugal

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook databank http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28

Continuing high rates of unemployment in advanced economies constitute another characteristic of the database of the WEO (http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28). Table V-2 is constructed with the WEO database to provide rates of unemployment from 2012 to 2016 for major countries and regions. In fact, unemployment rates for 2013 in Table I-2 are high for all countries: unusually high for countries with high rates most of the time and unusually high for countries with low rates most of the time. The rates of unemployment are particularly high in 2013 for the countries with sovereign debt difficulties in Europe: 16.2 percent for Portugal (POT), 13.0 percent for Ireland, 27.3 percent for Greece, 26.1 percent for Spain and 12.2 percent for Italy, which is lower but still high. The G7 rate of unemployment is 7.1 percent. Unemployment rates are not likely to decrease substantially if slow growth persists in advanced economies.

Table V-2, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Unemployment Rate as Percent of Labor Force

	% Labor Force 2012	% Labor Force 2013	% Labor Force 2014	% Labor Force 2015	% Labor Force 2016
World	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
G7	7.4	7.1	6.5	6.3	6.1
Canada	7.3	7.1	7.0	6.9	6.8
France	9.8	10.3	10.0	10.0	9.9
DE	5.5	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.3
Italy	10.7	12.2	12.6	12.0	11.3
Japan	4.3	4.0	3.7	3.8	3.8
UK	8.0	7.6	6.3	5.8	5.5
US	8.1	7.4	6.3	5.9	5.8
Euro Area	11.3	11.9	11.6	11.2	10.7
DE	5.5	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.3
France	9.8	10.3	10.0	10.0	9.9
Italy	10.7	12.2	12.6	12.0	11.3
POT	15.5	16.2	14.2	13.5	13.0
Ireland	14.7	13.0	11.2	10.5	10.1
Greece	24.2	27.3	25.8	23.8	20.9
Spain	24.8	26.1	24.6	23.5	22.4
EMDE	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
Brazil	5.5	5.4	5.5	6.1	5.9
Russia	5.5	5.5	5.6	6.5	6.0
India	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
China	4.1	4.1	4.1	4.1	4.1

Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries)

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook databank http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28

Table V-3 provides the latest available estimates of GDP for the regions and countries followed in this blog from IQ2012 to IIIQ2014 available now for all countries. There are preliminary estimates for all countries for IIIQ2014. Growth is weak throughout most of the world.

• Japan. The GDP of Japan increased 1.1 percent in IQ2012, 4.6 percent at SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) and 3.5 percent relative to a year earlier but part of the jump could be the low level a year earlier because of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan is experiencing difficulties with the overvalued yen because of worldwide capital flight originating in zero interest rates with risk aversion in an environment of softer growth of world trade. Japan’s GDP fell 0.4 percent in IIQ2012 at the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of minus 1.7 percent, which is much lower than 4.6 percent in IQ2012. Growth of 3.5 percent in IIQ2012 in Japan relative to IIQ2011 has effects of the low level of output because of Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012 at the SAAR of minus 2.0 percent and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IVQ2012 at the SAAR of minus 0.9 percent and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan grew 1.5 percent in IQ2013 at the SAAR of 6.0 percent and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2013 at the SAAR of 3.0 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP grew 0.4 percent in IIIQ2013 at the SAAR of 1.6 percent and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Japan’s GDP decreased 0.4 percent at the SAAR of minus 1.5 percent, increasing 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 1.4 percent in IQ2014 at the SAAR of 5.8 percent and increased 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Japan’s GDP fell 1.7 percent at the SAAR of minus 6.7 percent and fell 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 at the SAAR of minus 1.9 percent and fell 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier.
• China. China’s GDP grew 1.4 percent in IQ2012, annualizing to 5.7 percent, and 8.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 2.1 percent in IIQ2012, which annualizes to 8.7 percent and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 2.0 percent in IIIQ2012, which annualizes at 8.2 percent and 7.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, China grew at 1.9 percent, which annualizes at 7.8 percent, and 7.9 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, China grew at 1.6 percent, which annualizes at 6.6 percent and 7.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, China grew at 1.8 percent, which annualizes at 7.4 percent and 7.5 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 2.3 percent in IIIQ2013, which annualizes at 9.5 percent and 7.8 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 1.7 percent in IVQ2013, which annualized to 7.0 percent and 7.7 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP grew 1.5 percent in IQ2014, which annualizes to 6.1 percent, and 7.4 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP grew 2.0 percent in IIQ2014, which annualizes at 8.2 percent, and 7.5 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP grew 1.9 percent in IIIQ2014, which is equivalent to 7.8 percent in a year, and 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier. There is decennial change in leadership in China (http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/special/18cpcnc/index.htm). Growth rates of GDP of China in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier have been declining from 2011 to 2014.
• Euro Area. GDP fell 0.1 percent in the euro area in IQ2012 and decreased 0.3 in IQ2012 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP contracted 0.3 percent IIQ2012 and fell 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.1 percent and declined 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.4 percent relative to the prior quarter and fell 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, the GDP of the euro area fell 0.4 percent and decreased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2013, euro area GDP increased 0.2 percent and fell 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2013 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent and 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The euro area’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier.
• Germany. The GDP of Germany increased 0.3 percent in IQ2012 and 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier but 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier when adjusted for calendar (CA) effects. In IIIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IVQ2012 and decreased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, Germany’s GDP decreased 0.4 percent and fell 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 0.8 percent and 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2013 and 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent and 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.8 percent in IQ2014 and 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Germany’s GDP contracted 0.1 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier.
• United States. Growth of US GDP in IQ2012 was 0.6 percent, at SAAR of 2.3 percent and higher by 2.6 percent relative to IQ2011. US GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2012, 1.6 percent at SAAR and 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, US GDP grew 0.6 percent, 2.5 percent at SAAR and 2.7 percent relative to IIIQ2011. In IVQ2012, US GDP grew 0.0 percent, 0.1 percent at SAAR and 1.6 percent relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, US GDP grew at 2.7 percent SAAR, 0.7 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.7 percent relative to the same quarter in 2013. In IIQ2013, US GDP grew at 1.8 percent in SAAR, 0.4 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.8 percent relative to IIQ2012. US GDP grew at 4.5 percent in SAAR in IIIQ2013, 1.1 percent relative to the prior quarter and 2.3 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/growth-uncertainties-mediocre-cyclical.html) with weak hiring (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/global-financial-and-economic-risk.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html). In IVQ2013, US GDP grew 0.9 percent at 3.5 percent SAAR and 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, US GDP decreased 0.5 percent, increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier and fell 2.1 percent at SAAR. In IIQ2014, US GDP increased 1.1 percent at 4.6 percent SAAR and increased 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP increased 1.2 percent in IIIQ2014 at 5.0 percent SAAR and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier.
• United Kingdom. In IQ2012, UK GDP increased 0.1 percent, increasing 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP fell 0.2 percent in IIQ2012 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIIQ2012 and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP fell 0.3 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IIIQ2012 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2013 and 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2013 and 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2013, UK GDP increased 0.7 percent and 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2013 and 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, UK GDP increased 0.6 percent and 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2014 and 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2014, UK GDP increased 0.7 percent and increased 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier.
• Italy. Italy has experienced decline of GDP in nine consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IIIQ2013 and in IIQ2014 and IIIQ2014. Italy’s GDP fell 0.9 percent in IQ2012 and declined 1.9 percent relative to IQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell 0.4 percent in IIQ2012 and declined 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, Italy’s GDP fell 0.4 percent and declined 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy contracted 0.8 percent in IVQ2012 and fell 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, Italy’s GDP contracted 0.9 percent and fell 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.2 percent in IIQ2013 and 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2013 and declined 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2013 and decreased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and fell 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy fell 0.2 percent in IIQ2014 and declined 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2014, Italy’s GDP contracted 0.1 percent and fell 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier.
• France. France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2012 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IIQ2012 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP fell 0.2 percent in IVQ2012 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and declined 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2013 and 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2013 and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2013 and 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, France’s GDP contracted 0.1 percent and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier.

Table V-3, Percentage Changes of GDP Quarter on Prior Quarter and on Same Quarter Year Earlier, ∆%

	IQ2012/IVQ2011	IQ2012/IQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.6        SAAR: 2.3	2.6
Japan	QOQ: 1.1 SAAR: 4.6	3.5
China	1.4	8.1
Euro Area	-0.1	-0.3
Germany	0.3	1.5
France	0.2	0.6
Italy	-0.9	-1.9
United Kingdom	0.1	1.0
	IIQ2012/IQ2012	IIQ2012/IIQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.4         SAAR: 1.6	2.3
Japan	QOQ: -0.4 SAAR: -1.7	3.5
China	2.1	7.6
Euro Area	-0.3	-0.6
Germany	0.1	0.3 0.8 CA
France	-0.2	0.4
Italy	-0.4	-2.4
United Kingdom	-0.2	0.6
	IIIQ2012/ IIQ2012	IIIQ2012/ IIIQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.6  SAAR: 2.5	2.7
Japan	QOQ: –0.5 SAAR: –2.0	0.2
China	2.0	7.4
Euro Area	-0.1	-0.8
Germany	0.1	0.1
France	0.2	0.4
Italy	-0.4	-2.5
United Kingdom	0.8	0.7
	IVQ2012/IIIQ2012	IVQ2012/IVQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.0 SAAR: 0.1	1.6
Japan	QOQ: -0.2 SAAR: -0.9	0.0
China	1.9	7.9
Euro Area	-0.4	-0.9
Germany	-0.4	-0.3
France	-0.2	0.0
Italy	-0.8	-2.5
United Kingdom	-0.3	0.4
	IQ2013/IVQ2012	IQ2013/IQ2012
United States	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.7	1.7
Japan	QOQ: 1.5 SAAR: 6.0	0.5
China	1.6	7.7
Euro Area	-0.4	-1.2
Germany	-0.4	-1.8
France	0.0	-0.3
Italy	-0.9	-2.5
UK	0.6	0.9
	IIQ2013/IQ2013	IIQ2013/IIQ2012
United States	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.8	1.8
Japan	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 3.0	1.4
China	1.8	7.5
Euro Area	0.3	-0.6
Germany	0.8	0.5
France	0.7	0.7
Italy	-0.2	-2.2
UK	0.6	1.7
	IIIQ2013/IIQ2013	III/Q2013/  IIIQ2012
USA	QOQ: 1.1 SAAR: 4.5	2.3
Japan	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.6	2.2
China	2.3	7.8
Euro Area	0.2	-0.3
Germany	0.3	0.8
France	-0.1	0.3
Italy	0.0	-1.8
UK	0.7	1.6
	IVQ2013/IIIQ2013	IVQ2013/IVQ2012
USA	QOQ: 0.9 SAAR: 3.5	3.1
Japan	QOQ: -0.4 SAAR: -1.5	2.3
China	1.7	7.7
Euro Area	0.2	0.4
Germany	0.4	1.0
France	0.2	0.8
Italy	-0.1	-1.2
UK	0.4	2.4
	IQ2014/IVQ2013	IQ2014/IQ2013
USA	QOQ -0.5 SAAR -2.1	1.9
Japan	QOQ: 1.4 SAAR: 5.8	2.5
China	1.5	7.4
Euro Area	0.3	1.1
Germany	0.8	2.6
France	0.0	0.8
Italy	0.0	-0.3
UK	0.6	2.4
	IIQ2014/IQ2014	IIQ2014/IIQ2013
USA	QOQ 1.1 SAAR 4.6	2.6
Japan	QOQ: -1.7 SAAR: -6.7	-0.3
China	2.0	7.5
Euro Area	0.1	0.8
Germany	-0.1	1.0
France	-0.1	0.0
Italy	-0.2	-0.4
UK	0.8	2.6
	IIIQ2014/IIQ2014	IIIQ2014/IIIQ2013
USA	QOQ: 1.2 SAAR: 5.0	2.7
Japan	QOQ: -0.5 SAAR: -1.9	-1.3
China	1.9	7.3
Euro Area	0.2	0.8
Germany	0.1	1.2
France	0.3	0.4
Italy	-0.1	-0.5
UK	0.7	2.6

QOQ: Quarter relative to prior quarter; SAAR: seasonally adjusted annual rate

Source: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.census.gov/aboutus/stat_int.html

Table V-4 provides two types of data: growth of exports and imports in the latest available months and in the past 12 months; and contributions of net trade (exports less imports) to growth of real GDP.

• Japan. Japan provides the most worrisome data (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/patience-on-interest-rate-increases.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/monetary-policy-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/valuation-risks-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/interest-rate-risks-world-inflation.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/global-financial-risk-world-inflation.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations_8763.html http://cmpass ocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/paring-quantitative-easing-policy-and_4699.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/thirty-one-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/12/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_24.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/11/contraction-of-united-states-real_25.html and for GDP http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html and earlier http://cmpassocreulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/recovery-without-hiring-united-states.html). In Nov 2014, Japan’s exports increased 4.9 percent in 12 months while imports decreased 2.7 percent. The second part of Table V-4 shows that net trade deducted 1.5 percentage points from Japan’s growth of GDP in IIQ2012, deducted 1.9 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2012 and deducted 0.5 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2012. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2012, 1.7 percentage points in IQ2013 and 0.2 percentage points in IIQ2013. In IIIQ2013, net trade deducted 1.6 percentage points from GDP growth in Japan. Net trade ducted 2.4 percentage points from GDP growth in Japan in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 0.8 percentage point from GDP growth of Japan in IQ2014. Net trade added 4.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2014. Net trade added 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2014.

• China. In Nov 2014, China exports increased 4.7 percent relative to a year earlier and imports decreased 6.7 percent.
• Germany. Germany’s exports decreased 0.5 percent in the month of Oct 2014 and increased 4.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014. Germany’s imports decreased 3.1 percent in the month of Oct 2014 and increased 0.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to growth of GDP in IQ2012, contributed 0.4 percentage points in IIQ2012, contributed 0.3 percentage points in IIIQ2012, deducted 0.5 percentage points in IVQ2012, deducted 0.3 percentage points in IQ2013 and added 0.1 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded deducted 0.5 percentage points from Germany’s GDP growth in IIIQ2013 and added 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2014. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2014 and added 0.2 percentage points in IIIQ2014.
• United Kingdom. Net trade contributed 0.7 percentage points in IIQ2013. In IIIQ2013, net trade deducted 1.7 percentage points from UK growth. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to UK value added in IVQ2013. Net trade contributed 0.6 percentage points to UK value added in IQ2014 and 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2014.
• France. France’s exports increased 0.5 percent in Oct 2014 while imports increased 0.1 percent. France’s imports increased 1.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014 and imports increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Net traded added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IIIQ2012 and 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IQ2013 and added 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2013, deducting 1.7 percentage points in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IVQ2013 and deducted 0.0 percentage points in IQ2014. Net trade added 0.3 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IIQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIIQ2014.
• United States. US exports decreased 1.0 percent in Nov 2014 and goods exports increased 2.9 percent in Jan-Nov 2014 relative to a year earlier. Imports decreased 2.2 percent in Nov 2014 and goods imports increased 3.0 percent in Jan-Nov 2014 relative to a year earlier. Net trade deducted 0.04 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2012 and added 0.39 percentage points in IIIQ2012 and 0.79 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade deducted 0.08 percentage points from US GDP growth in IQ2013 and deducted 0.54 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded added 0.59 percentage points to US GDP growth in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 1.08 percentage points to US GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 1.66 percentage points from US GDP growth in IQ2014 and deducted 0.34 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade added 0.78 percentage points to IIIQ2014. Industrial production increased 1.3 percent in Nov 2014 and increased 0.1 percent in Oct 2014 after increasing 0.9 percent in Sep 2014, as shown in Table I-1, with all data seasonally adjusted. The Federal Reserve completed its annual revision of industrial production and capacity utilization on Mar 28, 2014 (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/revisions/Current/DefaultRev.htm). The report of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System states (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm):

“Industrial production increased 1.3 percent in November after edging up in October; output is now reported to have risen at a faster pace over the period from June through October than previously published. In November, manufacturing output increased 1.1 percent, with widespread gains among industries. The rise in factory output was well above its average monthly pace of 0.3 percent over the previous five months and was its largest gain since February. In November, the output of utilities jumped 5.1 percent, as weather that was colder than usual for the month boosted demand for heating. The index for mining decreased 0.1 percent. At 106.7 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in November was 5.2 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 0.8 percentage point in November to 80.1 percent, a rate equal to its long-run (1972–2013) average.”

In the six months ending in Nov 2014, United States national industrial production accumulated increase of 2.9 percent at the annual equivalent rate of 5.9 percent, which is higher than growth of 5.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2014. Excluding growth of 1.3 percent in Nov 2014, growth in the remaining five months from Jun to Nov 2014 accumulated to 1.6 percent or 3.9 percent annual equivalent. Industrial production declined in one of the past six months. Industrial production expanded at annual equivalent 9.6 percent in the most recent quarter from Sep to Nov 2014 and at 2.4 percent in the prior quarter Jun to Aug 2014. Business equipment accumulated growth of 2.5 percent in the six months from Jun to Nov 2014 at the annual equivalent rate of 5.1 percent, which is lower than growth of 6.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2014. The Fed analyzes capacity utilization of total industry in its report (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm): “Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 0.8 percentage point in November to 80.1 percent, a rate equal to its long-run (1972–2013) average.” United States industry apparently decelerated to a lower growth rate followed by possible acceleration and stronger growth in past months.

Manufacturing decreased 21.9 from the peak in Jun 2007 to the trough in Apr 2009 and increased 19.9 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Dec 2013. Manufacturing grew 26.5 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Nov 2014. Manufacturing output in Nov 2014 is 1.2 percent below the peak in Jun 2007. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IIIQ2014 would have accumulated to 23.0 percent. GDP in IIIQ2014 would be $18,438.0 billion (in constant dollars of 2009) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $2,273.9 billion than actual $16,164.1 billion. There are about two trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 26.0 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment of 15.8 percent of the effective labor force (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/financial-risks-twenty-six-million.html

and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/rules-discretionary-authorities-and.html). US GDP in IIIQ2014 is 12.3 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $14,991.8 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $16,164.1 billion in IIIQ2014 or 7.8 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.1 percent. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. The long-term trend is growth at average 3.3 percent per year from Jan 1919 to Nov 2014. Growth at 3.3 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output from 99.2392 in Dec 2007 to 124.2256 in Nov 2014. The actual index NSA in Nov 2014 is 101.7487, which is 18.1 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 2.3 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2013, raising the index at trend to 116.1422 in Nov 2014. The output of manufacturing at 101.7487 in Nov 2014 is 12.4 percent below trend under this alternative calculation

Table V-4, Growth of Trade and Contributions of Net Trade to GDP Growth, ∆% and % Points

	Exports M ∆%	Exports 12 M ∆%	Imports M ∆%	Imports 12 M ∆%
USA	-1.0 Nov	2.9 Jan-Nov	-2.2 Nov	3.0 Jan-Nov
Japan		Nov 4.9 Oct 9.6 Sep 6.9 Aug -1.3 Jul 3.9 Jun -2.0 May 2014 -2.7 Apr 2014 5.1 Mar 2014 1.8 Feb 2014 9.5 Jan 2014 9.5 Dec 2013 15.3 Nov 2013 18.4 Oct 2013 18.6 Sep 2013 11.5 Aug 2013 14.7 Jul 2013 12.2 Jun 2013 7.4 May 2013 10.1 Apr 2013 3.8 Mar 2013 1.1 Feb 2013 -2.9 Jan 2013 6.4 Dec -5.8 Nov -4.1 Oct -6.5 Sep -10.3 Aug -5.8 Jul -8.1		Nov -1.7 Oct 2.7 Sep 6.2 Aug -1.5 Jul 2.3 Jun 8.4 May 2014 -3.6 Apr 2013 3.4 Mar 2014 18.1 Feb 2014 9.0 Jan 2014 25.0 Dec 2013 24.7 Nov 2013 21.1 Oct 2013 26.1 Sep 2013 16.5 Aug 2013 16.0 Jul 2013 19.6 Jun 2013 11.8 May 2013 10.0 Apr 2013 9.4 Mar 2013 5.5 Feb 2013 7.3 Jan 2013 7.3 Dec 1.9 Nov 0.8 Oct -1.6 Sep 4.1 Aug -5.4 Jul 2.1
China		2014 4.7 Nov 11.6 Oct 15.3 Sep 9.4 Aug 14.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 7.0 May 0.9 Apr -6.6 Mar -18.1 Feb 10.6 Jan 2013 4.3 Dec 12.7 Nov 5.6 Oct -0.3 Sep 7.2 Aug 5.1 Jul -3.1 Jun 1.0 May 14.7 Apr 10.0 Mar 21.8 Feb 25.0 Jan		2014 -6.7 Nov 4.6 Oct 7.0 Sep -2.4 Aug -1.6 Jul 5.5 Jun -1.6 May -0.8 Apr -11.3 Mar 10.1 Feb 10.0 Jan 2013 8.3 Dec 5.3 Nov 7.6 Oct 7.4 Sep 7.0 Aug 10.9 Jul -0.7 Jun -0.3 May 16.8 Apr 14.1 Mar -15.2 Feb 28.8 Jan
Euro Area	3.9 12-M Nov	1.9 Jan-Nov	-0.4 12-M Nov	0.2 Jan-Nov
Germany	-2.1 Nov CSA	1.4 Nov	-1.5 Nov CSA	1.7 Nov
France Oct	0.5	1.8	0.1	0.6
Italy Oct	0.4	2.9	-0.9	-1.6
UK	0.5 Oct	-2.4 Aug-Oct 14 /Aug-Oct 13	-1.3 Oct	-5.6 Aug-Oct 14 /Aug-Oct 13
Net Trade % Points GDP Growth	% Points
USA	IIIQ2014 0.78 IIQ2014 -0.34 IQ2014 -1.66 IVQ2013 1.08 IIIQ2013 0.59 IIQ2013 -0.54 IQ2013 -0.08 IVQ2012 +0.79 IIIQ2012 0.39 IIQ2012 -0.04 IQ2012 -0.11
Japan	0.4 IQ2012 -1.5 IIQ2012 -1.9 IIIQ2012 -0.5 IVQ2012 1.7 IQ2013 0.2 IIQ2013 -1.5 IIIQ2013 -2.3 IVQ2013 -0.8 IQ2014 4.2 IIQ2014 0.3 IIIQ2014
Germany	IQ2012 0.8 IIQ2012 0.4 IIIQ2012 0.3 IVQ2012 -0.5 IQ2013 -0.3 IIQ2013 0.1 IIIQ2013 -0.5 IVQ2013 0.5 IQ2014 -0.1 IIQ2014 0.1 IIIQ2014 0.2
France	0.1 IIIQ2012 0.1 IVQ2012 -0.1 IQ2013 0.3 IIQ2013 -1.7 IIIQ2013 0.1 IVQ2013 0.0 IQ2014 0.3 IIQ2014 -0.2 IIIQ2014
UK	0.7 IIQ2013 -1.7 IIIQ2013 0.1 IVQ2013 0.6 IQ2014 0.3 IIQ2014 -0.2 IIIQ2014

Sources: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/

The geographical breakdown of exports and imports of Japan with selected regions and countries is provided in Table VB-5 for Nov 2014. The share of Asia in Japan’s trade is close to one-half for 55.4 percent of exports and 47.8 percent of imports. Within Asia, exports to China are 18.6 percent of total exports and imports from China 24.7 percent of total imports. While exports to China increased 0.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2014, imports from China increased 3.9 percent. The largest export market for Japan in Nov 2014 is the US with share of 19.5 percent of total exports, which is close to that of China, and share of imports from the US of 8.8 percent in total imports. Japan’s exports to the US increased 6.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2014 and imports from the US decreased 3.3 percent. Western Europe has share of 9.7 percent in Japan’s exports and of 10.4 percent in imports. Rates of growth of exports of Japan in Nov 2014 are 6.8 percent for exports to the US, minus 20.9 percent for exports to Brazil and minus 6.9 percent for exports to Germany. Comparisons relative to 2011 may have some bias because of the effects of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Deceleration of growth in China and the US and threat of recession in Europe can reduce world trade and economic activity. Growth rates of imports in the 12 months ending in Nov 2014 are mixed. Imports from Asia increased 3.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2014 while imports from China increased 3.9 percent. Data are in millions of yen, which may have effects of recent depreciation of the yen relative to the United States dollar (USD).

Table VB-5, Japan, Value and 12-Month Percentage Changes of Exports and Imports by Regions and Countries, ∆% and Millions of Yen

Nov 2014	Exports Millions Yen	12 months ∆%	Imports Millions Yen	12 months ∆%
Total	6,188,859	4.9	7,080,718	-1.7
Asia	3,430,449 % Total 55.4	5.8	3,384,220 % Total 47.8	3.4
China	1,151,617 % Total 18.6	0.9	1,748,448 % Total 24.7	3.9
USA	1,208,277 % Total 19.5	6.8	626,218 % Total 8.8	-3.3
Canada	69,581	1.3	95,029	-2.1
Brazil	34,799	-20.9	88,775	-8.1
Mexico	91,375	22.6	32,443	-7.4
Western Europe	598,248 % Total 9.7	-0.5	735,291 % Total 10.4	0.9
Germany	154,146	-6.9	211,548	4.8
France	52,160	8.3	133,363	30.5
UK	94,155	10.9	49,963	-9.5
Middle East	268,253	17.5	1,130,462	-18.1
Australia	130,042	1.6	380,456	-1.8

Source: Japan, Ministry of Finance http://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/info/index_e.htm

World trade projections of the IMF are in Table V-6. There is increasing growth of the volume of world trade of goods and services from 3.0 percent in 2013 to 5.0 percent in 2015 and 5.6 percent on average from 2016 to 2019. World trade would be slower for advanced economies while emerging and developing economies (EMDE) experience faster growth. World economic slowdown would be more challenging with lower growth of world trade.

Table V-6, IMF, Projections of World Trade, USD Billions, USD/Barrel and Annual ∆%

	2013	2014	2015	Average ∆% 2016-2019
World Trade Volume (Goods and Services)	3.0	3.8	5.0	5.6
Exports Goods & Services	3.2	3.7	5.0	5.5
Imports Goods & Services	2.8	3.9	5.0	5.6
World Trade Value of Exports Goods & Services USD Billion	23,114	23,928	24,948	Average ∆% 2006-2015 20,259
Value of Exports of Goods USD Billion	18,671	19,299	20,107	Average ∆% 2006-2015 16,312
Average Oil Price USD/Barrel	104.07	102.76	99.36	Average ∆% 2006-2015 88.85
Average Annual ∆% Export Unit Value of Manufactures	-1.1	-0.2	-0.5	Average ∆% 2006-2015 -0.6
Exports of Goods & Services	2013	2014	2015	Average ∆% 2016-2019
Euro Area	1.8	3.5	4.3	4.7
EMDE	4.4	3.9	5.8	6.1
G7	1.8	2.9	4.2	4.9
Imports Goods & Services
Euro Area	0.5	3.4	3.9	4.7
EMDE	5.3	4.4	6.1	6.3
G7	1.2	3.6	4.1	4.9
Terms of Trade of Goods & Services
Euro Area	0.8	-0.4	-0.3	-0.1
EMDE	-0.2	-0.02	-0.6	-0.4
G7	0.8	0.7	-0.2	0.0
Terms of Trade of Goods
Euro Area	1.2	0.03	-0.02	-0.2
EMDE	-0.2	0.2	-0.4	-0.3
G7	0.9	0.3	-0.1	-0.1

Notes: Commodity Price Index includes Fuel and Non-fuel Prices; Commodity Industrial Inputs Price includes agricultural raw materials and metal prices; Oil price is average of WTI, Brent and Dubai

Source: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook databank

http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28

The JP Morgan Global All-Industry Output Index of the JP Morgan Manufacturing and Services PMI^™, produced by JP Morgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM, with high association with world GDP, decreased to 53.2 in Nov from 53.5 in Oct, indicating expansion at slightly slower rate (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/3e88d53d5f9343c695bc7ef65fa7e9d0). This index has remained above the contraction territory of 50.0 during 64 consecutive months. The employment index increased from 51.4 in Oct to 51.9 in Nov with input prices rising at slower rate, new orders increasing at slower rate and output increasing at slower rate (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/3e88d53d5f9343c695bc7ef65fa7e9d0). David Hensley, Director of Global Economic Coordination at JP Morgan, finds moderately slower growth of world economic output (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/3e88d53d5f9343c695bc7ef65fa7e9d0). The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI^™, produced by JP Morgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM, decreased to 51.6 in Dec from 51.8 in Nov (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4a2151bd3b014c39b499ef9eb7314369). New export orders expanded for the seventeenth consecutive month David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JP Morgan Chase, finds continuing growth in global manufacturing with favorable effects from declining oil prices (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4a2151bd3b014c39b499ef9eb7314369). The HSBC Brazil Composite Output Index, compiled by Markit, decreased from 48.4 in Oct to 48.1 in Nov, indicating moderate contraction in activity of Brazil’s private sector (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/20803a784bcd4bdba08993ea343540fe). The HSBC Brazil Services Business Activity index, compiled by Markit, increased from 48.2 in Oct to 48.5 in Nov, indicating marginally contracting services activity (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/20803a784bcd4bdba08993ea343540fe). André Loes, Chief Economist, Brazil, at HSBC, finds lack of impulse of the economy in IVQ2014 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/2f6044990d2945f98595a949cc75369c). The HSBC Brazil Purchasing Managers’ Index^TM (PMI^™) increased from 48.7 in Nov to 50.2 in Dec, indicating moderate improvement in manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/11700e354c5a457495e07143c55f59c6). André Loes, Chief Economist, Brazil at HSBC, finds increasing new orders and moderate decrease in output (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/11700e354c5a457495e07143c55f59c6).

VA United States. The Markit Flash US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) seasonally adjusted decreased to 53.7 in Dec from 54.8 in Nov (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/0539167ca8dd4b0088095675a7a3af71). New export orders increased moderately. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds that manufacturing is slowing with weakness in foreign orders (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/0539167ca8dd4b0088095675a7a3af71). The Markit Flash US Services PMI™ Business Activity Index decreased from 56.2 in Nov to 53.6 in Nov (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/201ab60916734bff84245deb22eb39eb). The Markit Flash US Composite PMI™ Output Index fell from 56.1 in Nov to 53.8 in Dec. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds that the surveys are consistent with growth of GDP below 2 percent (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/201ab60916734bff84245deb22eb39eb). The Markit US Composite PMI™ Output Index of Manufacturing and Services decreased to 56.1 in Nov from 57.4 in Oct (). The Markit US Services PMI™ Business Activity Index decreased from 57.1 in Oct to 56.2 in Nov (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/34b835438d714f8e91f99173d2cadcb3). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds the indexes consistent with US growth at around 2.5 percent annual in IVQ2014 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/34b835438d714f8e91f99173d2cadcb3). The Markit US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) decreased to 53.9 in Dec from 54.8 in Nov, which indicates expansion at marginally slower rate (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/43b8d6957aaf432682fb3f14db8d29d0). New foreign orders expanded at moderate rate. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds that the index suggests slowing but strong manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/43b8d6957aaf432682fb3f14db8d29d0). The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Report on Business^® decreased 3.2 percentage points from 58.7 in Nov to 55.5 in Dec, which indicates growth at slower rate (http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm?navItemNumber=24581). The index of new orders decreased 8.7 percentage points from 66.0 in Nov to 57.3 in Dec. The index of new export orders decreased 3.0 percentage point from 55.0 in Nov to 52.0 in Dec, growing at slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report on Business^® PMI increased 2.2 percentage points from 57.1 in Oct to 59.3 in Nov, indicating growth of business activity/production during 64 consecutive months, while the index of new orders increased 2.3 percentage points from 59.1 in Oct to 61.4 in Nov (http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm?navItemNumber=12943). Table USA provides the country economic indicators for the US.

Table USA, US Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index	Nov 12 months NSA ∆%: 1.3; ex food and energy ∆%: 1.7 Nov month SA ∆%: -0.3; ex food and energy ∆%: 0.1 Blog 12/21/14
Producer Price Index	Finished Goods Nov 12-month NSA ∆%: 1.1; ex food and energy ∆% 2.0 Nov month SA ∆% = -0.6; ex food and energy ∆%: 0.1 Final Demand Nov 12-month NSA ∆%: 1.54; ex food and energy ∆% 1.8 Nov month SA ∆% = -0.2; ex food and energy ∆%: 0.0 Blog 12/21/14
PCE Inflation	Nov 12-month NSA ∆%: headline 1.2; ex food and energy ∆% 1.4 Blog 12/28/14
Employment Situation	Household Survey: Dec Unemployment Rate SA 5.6% Blog calculation People in Job Stress Dec: 25.9 million NSA, 15.7% of Labor Force Establishment Survey: Dec Nonfarm Jobs +252,000; Private +240,000 jobs created  Nov 12-month Average Hourly Earnings Inflation Adjusted ∆%: 1.4 Blog 1/11/15
Nonfarm Hiring	Nonfarm Hiring fell from 63.3 million in 2006 to 54.2 million in 2013 or by 9.1 million Private-Sector Hiring Oct 2014 5.349 million lower by 0.182 million than 5.531 million in Oct 2007 Blog 12/14/14
GDP Growth	BEA Revised National Income Accounts IQ2012/IQ2011 ∆%: 2.6 IIQ2012/IIQ2011 2.3 IIIQ2012/IIIQ2011 2.7 IVQ2012/IVQ2011 1.6 IQ2013/IQ2012 1.7 IIQ2013/IIQ2012 1.8 IIIQ2013/IIIQ2012 2.3 IVQ2013/IVQ2012 3.1 IQ2014/IQ2013 1.9 IIQ2014/IIQ2013 2.6 IIIQ2014/IIIQ2013 2.7 IQ2012 SAAR 2.3 IIQ2012 SAAR 1.6 IIIQ2012 SAAR 2.5 IVQ2012 SAAR 0.1 IQ2013 SAAR 2.7 IIQ2013 SAAR 1.8 IIIQ2013 SAAR 4.5 IVQ2013 SAAR 3.5 IQ2014 SAAR -2.1 IIQ2014 SAAR 4.6 IIIQ2014 SAAR 5.0 Blog 12/28/14
Real Private Fixed Investment	SAAR IIIQ2014 7.7 ∆% IVQ2007 to IIIQ2014: 2.2% Blog 12/28/14
Corporate Profits	IIIQ2014 SAAR: Corporate Profits 3.1; Undistributed Profits 12.4 Blog 12/28/14
Personal Income and Consumption	Nov month ∆% SA Real Disposable Personal Income (RDPI) SA ∆% 0.5 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (RPCE): 0.7 12-month Nov NSA ∆%: RDPI: 2.9; RPCE ∆%: 2.8 Blog 12/28/14
Quarterly Services Report	IIIQ14/IIIQ13 NSA ∆%: Information 6.6 Financial & Insurance 4.8 Blog 12/14/14
Employment Cost Index	Compensation Private IIQ2014 SA ∆%: 0.7 Jun 12 months ∆%: 2.0 Blog 8/3/14
Industrial Production	Nov month SA ∆%: 1.3 Nov 12 months SA ∆%: 5.2 Manufacturing Nov SA 1.1 ∆% Nov 12 months SA ∆% 4.8, NSA 4.7 Capacity Utilization: 80.1 Blog 12/21/14
Productivity and Costs	Nonfarm Business Productivity IIIQ2014∆% SAAE 2.3; IIIQ2014/IIQ2013 ∆% 1.0; Unit Labor Costs SAAE IIIQ2014 ∆% -1.0; IIIQ2014/IIIQ2013 ∆%: 1.2 Blog 12/7/14
New York Fed Manufacturing Index	General Business Conditions From Nov 10.16 to Dec -3.58 New Orders: From Nov 9.14 to Dec -1.97 Blog 12/21/14
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index	General Index from Nov 40.8 to Dec 24.5 New Orders from Nov 35.7 to Dec 15.7 Blog 12/21/14
Manufacturing Shipments and Orders	New Orders SA Nov ∆% -0.7 Ex Transport -0.6 Jan-Nov NSA New Orders ∆% 3.4 Ex transport 2.3 Blog 1/11/15
Durable Goods	Nov New Orders SA ∆%: minus 0.7; ex transport ∆%: minus 0.4 Jan-Nov 14/Jan-Nov 13 New Orders NSA ∆%: 6.7; ex transport ∆% 5.4 Blog 12/28/14
Sales of New Motor Vehicles	Jan-Dec 2014 16,522,000; Jan-Dec 2013 15,600,199. Dec 14 SAAR 16.92 million, Nov 14 SAAR 17.20 million, Dec 2013 SAAR 15.52 million Blog 1/11/15
Sales of Merchant Wholesalers	Jan-Oct 2014/Jan-Oct 2013 NSA ∆%: Total 5.7; Durable Goods: 5.6; Nondurable Goods: 5.8 Blog 12/14/14
Sales and Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers	Oct 14 12-M NSA ∆%: Sales Total Business 3.5; Manufacturers 2.2 Retailers 4.4; Merchant Wholesalers 4.2 Blog 12/14/14
Sales for Retail and Food Services	Jan-Nov 2014/Jan-Nov 2013 ∆%: Retail and Food Services 4.0; Retail ∆% 3.8 Blog 12/14/14
Value of Construction Put in Place	Nov SAAR month SA ∆%: minus 0.3 Nov 12-month NSA: 2.8 Blog 1/4/15
Case-Shiller Home Prices	Oct 2014/Oct 2013 ∆% NSA: 10 Cities 4.4; 20 Cities: 4.5; National: 4.6 ∆% Oct SA: 10 Cities 0.7 ; 20 Cities: 0.8 Blog 1/4/15
FHFA House Price Index Purchases Only	Oct SA ∆% 0.6; 12 month NSA ∆%: 4.5 Blog 12/28/14
New House Sales	Nov 2014 month SAAR ∆%: minus 1.6 Jan-Nov 2014/Jan-Nov 2013 NSA ∆%: 1.0 Blog 12/28/14
Housing Starts and Permits	Nov Starts month SA ∆% -1.6; Permits ∆%: -5.2 Jan-Nov 2014/Jan-Nov 2013 NSA ∆% Starts 8.2; Permits  ∆% 3.0 Blog 12/21/14
Trade Balance	Balance Nov SA -$39,001 million versus Oct -$42,249 million Exports Nov SA ∆%: -1.0 Imports Nov SA ∆%: -2.2 Goods Exports Jan-Nov 2014/Jan-Nov 2013 NSA ∆%: 2.9 Goods Imports Jan-Nov 2014/Jan-Nov 2012 NSA ∆%: 3.0 Blog 1/11/15
Export and Import Prices	Nov 12-month NSA ∆%: Imports -2.3; Exports -1.9 Blog 12/14/14
Consumer Credit	Nov ∆% annual rate: Total 5.1; Revolving -1.3; Nonrevolving 7.5 Blog 1/11/15
Net Foreign Purchases of Long-term Treasury Securities	Oct Net Foreign Purchases of Long-term US Securities: minus $1.4 billion Major Holders of Treasury Securities: China $1253 billion; Japan $1222 billion; Total Foreign US Treasury Holdings Oct $6059 billion Blog 12/21/14
Treasury Budget	Fiscal Year 2015/2013 ∆% Nov: Receipts 6.0; Outlays minus 4.0; Individual Income Taxes 5.9 Deficit Fiscal Year 2011 $1,300 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2012 $1,087 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2013 $680 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2014 $483 billion Blog 12/14/2014
CBO Budget and Economic Outlook	2012 Deficit $1087 B 6.8% GDP Debt $11,281 B 70.1% GDP 2013 Deficit $680 B, 4.1% GDP Debt $11,983 B 72.0% GDP 2024 Deficit $960B, 3.6% GDP Debt $20,554B 77.2% GDP 2039: Long-term Debt/GDP 106% Blog 8/26/12 11/18/12 2/10/13 9/22/13 2/16/14 8/24/14 9/14/14
Commercial Banks Assets and Liabilities	Nov 2014 SAAR ∆%: Securities 5.3 Loans 7.7 Cash Assets -1.1 Deposits 9.8 Blog 1/4/15
Flow of Funds Net Worth of Families and Nonprofits	IIIQ2014 ∆ since 2007 Assets +$14,260.8 BN Nonfinancial $477.8 BN Real estate -$1,215.2 BN Financial +13,783.0 BN Net Worth +$14,595.3 BN Blog 12/28/14
Current Account Balance of Payments	IIIQ2014 -202,280 MM % GDP 2.3 Blog 12/21/14
Collapse of United States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation	Blog 1/4/15

Links to blog comments in Table USA:

1/4/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/01/peaking-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

12/21/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/patience-on-interest-rate-increases.html

12/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/global-financial-and-economic-risk.html

12/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/financial-risks-twenty-six-million.html

9/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitics-monetary-policy-and.html

8/24/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/monetary-policy-world-inflation-waves.html

8/3/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/fluctuating-financial-valuations.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

9/22/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

2/10/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/united-states-unsustainable-fiscal.html

Motor vehicle sales and production in the US have been in long-term structural change. Table VA-1 provides the data on new motor vehicle sales and domestic car production in the US from 1990 to 2010. New motor vehicle sales grew from 14,137 thousand in 1990 to the peak of 17,806 thousand in 2000 or 29.5 percent. In that same period, domestic car production fell from 6,231 thousand in 1990 to 5,542 thousand in 2000 or -11.1 percent. New motor vehicle sales fell from 17,445 thousand in 2005 to 11,772 in 2010 or 32.5 percent while domestic car production fell from 4,321 thousand in 2005 to 2,840 thousand in 2010 or 34.3 percent. In Dec 2014, light vehicle sales accumulated to 16,522,000, which is higher by 5.9 percent relative to 15,600,199 a year earlier (http://motorintelligence.com/m_frameset.html). The seasonally adjusted annual rate of light vehicle sales in the US reached 16.92 million in Dec 2014, lower than 17.20 million in Nov 2014 and higher than 15.52 million in Dec 2013 (http://motorintelligence.com/m_frameset.html).

Table VA-1, US, New Motor Vehicle Sales and Car Production, Thousand Units

	New Motor Vehicle Sales	New Car Sales and Leases	New Truck Sales and Leases	Domestic Car Production
1990	14,137	9,300	4,837	6,231
1991	12,725	8,589	4,136	5,454
1992	13,093	8,215	4,878	5,979
1993	14,172	8,518	5,654	5,979
1994	15,397	8,990	6,407	6,614
1995	15,106	8,536	6,470	6,340
1996	15,449	8,527	6,922	6,081
1997	15,490	8,273	7,218	5,934
1998	15,958	8,142	7,816	5,554
1999	17,401	8,697	8,704	5,638
2000	17,806	8,852	8,954	5,542
2001	17,468	8,422	9,046	4,878
2002	17,144	8,109	9,036	5,019
2003	16,968	7,611	9,357	4,510
2004	17,298	7,545	9,753	4,230
2005	17,445	7,720	9,725	4,321
2006	17,049	7,821	9,228	4,367
2007	16,460	7,618	8,683	3,924
2008	13,494	6,814	6.680	3,777
2009	10,601	5,456	5,154	2,247
2010	11,772	5,729	6,044	2,840

Source: US Census Bureau

http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/cats/wholesale_retail_trade/motor_vehicle_sales.html

Chart VA-1 of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve provides output of motor vehicles and parts in the United States from 1972 to 2014. Output virtually stagnated since the late 1990s.

Chart VA-1, US, Motor Vehicles and Parts Output, 1972-2014

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm

Manufacturers’ shipments decreased 0.6 percent in Nov 2014 and decreased 0.9 percent in Oct 2014 after increasing 0.1 percent in Sep 2014. New orders decreased 0.7 percent in Nov 2014, after decreasing 0.7 percent in Oct 2014 and decreasing 0.5 percent in Sep 2014, as shown in Table VA-2. These data are very volatile. Volatility is illustrated by increase of 2642.2 percent of new orders of nondefense aircraft in Sep 2012 following decline by 97.2 percent in Aug 2012. New orders excluding transportation equipment decreased 0.6 percent in Nov 2014 after decreasing 1.5 percent in Oct 2014 and changing 0.0 percent in Sep 2014. Capital goods new orders, indicating investment, decreased 0.8 percent in Nov 2014 after increasing 1.0 percent in Oct 2014 and decreasing 3.7 percent in Sep 2014. New orders of nondefense capital goods increased 0.1 percent in Nov 2014 after changing 0.0 percent in Oct 2014 and decreasing 4.8 percent in Sep 2014. Excluding more volatile aircraft, capital goods orders decreased 0.5 percent in Nov 2014 after decreasing 1.8 percent in Oct 2014 and decreasing 1.1 percent in Sep 2014.

Table VA-2, US, Value of Manufacturers’ Shipments and New Orders, SA, Month ∆%

	Nov 2014  ∆%	Oct 2014  ∆%	Sep 2014 ∆%
Total
S	-0.6	-0.9	0.1
NO	-0.7	-0.7	-0.5
Excluding Transport
S	-0.4	-1.2	0.0
NO	-0.6	-1.5	0.0
Excluding Defense
S	-0.6	-1.0	0.1
NO	-0.4	-1.2	-0.6
Durable Goods
S	-0.6	-0.1	0.3
NO	-0.9	0.3	-0.7
Machinery
S	-0.2	-0.9	0.4
NO	0.5	-2.1	-3.0
Computers & Electronic Products
S	-0.6	-0.3	-2.2
NO	-1.7	0.0	-2.0
Computers
S	-1.5	-2.0	-12.5
NO	0.7	-12.9	2.7
Transport Equipment
S	-1.3	0.7	0.4
NO	-1.3	3.5	-3.1
Automobiles
S	-2.0	1.4	0.7
Motor Vehicles
S	0.5	0.9	1.0
NO	1.2	0.8	0.1
Nondefense Aircraft
S	-4.7	-2.1	1.7
NO	0.3	0.8	-16.0
Capital Goods
S	-0.7	-1.0	1.0
NO	-0.8	1.0	-3.7
Nondefense Capital Goods
S	-0.9	-1.3	1.3
NO	0.1	0.0	-4.8
Capital Goods ex Aircraft
S	-0.2	-0.9	0.7
NO	-0.5	-1.8	-1.1
Nondurable Goods
S	-0.5	-1.6	-0.2
NO	-0.5	-1.6	-0.2

Note: Mfg: manufacturing; S: shipments; NO: new orders; Transport: transportation

Source: US Census Bureau

http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/

Chart VA-2 of the US Census Bureau provides new orders of manufacturers from Dec 2013 to Nov 2014. There is significant volatility that prevents discerning clear trends.

Chart VA-2, US, Manufacturers’ New Orders 2013-2014 Seasonally Adjusted, Month ∆%

Source: US Census Bureau

http://www.census.gov/briefrm/esbr/www/esbr022.html

Chart VA-3 of the US Census Bureau provides total value of manufacturers’ new orders, seasonally adjusted, from 1992 to 2014. Seasonal adjustment reduces sharp oscillations. The series dropped nearly vertically during the global recession but rose along a path even steeper than in the high-growth period before the recession. The final segment suggests deceleration but similar segments occurred in earlier periods followed with continuing growth and stability currently.

Chart VA-3, US, Value of Total Manufacturers’ New Orders, Seasonally Adjusted, 1992-2014

Source: US Census Bureau

http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/

Additional perspective on manufacturers’ shipments and new orders is provided by Table VA-3. Values are cumulative millions of dollars in Jan-Nov 2014 not seasonally adjusted (NSA). Shipments of all manufacturing industries in Jan-Nov 2014 total $5490.7 billion and new orders total $5507.5 billion, growing respectively by 2.5 percent and 3.4 percent relative to the same period in 2013. Excluding transportation equipment, shipments grew 2.3 percent and new orders increased 2.3 percent. Excluding defense, shipments grew 2.7 percent and new orders grew 3.3 percent. Durable goods shipments reached $2656.3 billion in Jan-Nov 2014, or 48.4 percent of the total, growing by 5.2 percent, and new orders $2673.0 billion, or 48.5 percent of the total, growing by 6.7 percent. Important information in Table VA-3 is the large share of nondurable goods with shipments of $2834.5 billion or 51.6 percent of the total, growing by 0.5 percent. Capital goods have relatively high value of $953.3 billion for shipments, growing 4.8 percent, and new orders $1033.8 billion, increasing 8.3 percent, which could be an indicator of future investment. Excluding aircraft, capital goods shipments reached $754.8 billion, growing 5.1 percent, and new orders $775.8 billion, increasing 5.0 percent. There is no suggestion in these data that the US economy is close to recession but manufacturing accounts for 11.3 percent of US national income in IIIQ2014. These data are not adjusted for inflation.

Table VA-3, US, Value of Manufacturers’ Shipments and New Orders, NSA, Millions of Dollars 

Jan-Nov 2014	Shipments	∆% 2014/ 2013	New Orders	∆% 2014/ 2013
Total	5,490,720	2.5	5,507,488	3.4
Excluding Transport	4,708,232	2.3	4,650,790	2.3
Excluding Defense	5,362,043	2.7	5,384,390	3.3
Durable Goods	2,656,261	4.8	2,673,029	6.7
Machinery	397,366	5.8	407,412	6.9
Computers & Electronic Products	315,304	4.6	239,187	3.8
Computers	4,456	-20.0	5,295	-7.4
Transport Equipment	782,488	3.7	856,698	9.8
Automobiles	105,276	-10.6
Motor Vehicles	235,548	8.7	236,381	9.5
Nondefense Aircraft	133,235	10.5	209,459	26.0
Capital Goods	953,295	4.8	1,033,755	8.3
Nondefense Capital Goods	848,138	5.8	935,084	8.2
Capital Goods ex Aircraft	754,830	5.1	775,846	5.0
Nondurable Goods	2,834,459	0.5	2,834,459	0.5
Food Products	725,008	6.1
Petroleum Refineries	731,723	-3.5
Chemical Products	693,235	-1.5

Note: Transport: transportation Source: US Census Bureau

Source: US Census Bureau

http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/

Chart VA-4 of the US Census Bureau provides value of manufacturer’s new orders not seasonally adjusted from Jan 1992 to Nov 2014. Fluctuations are evident, which are smoothed by seasonal adjustment in the above Chart VA-3. The series drops nearly vertically during the global contraction and then resumes growth in a steep upward trend, flattening recently.

Chart VA-4, US, Value of Total Manufacturers’ New Orders, Not Seasonally Adjusted, 1992-2014

Source: US Census Bureau

http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/

The report of consumer credit outstanding of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is provided in Table VA-4. The data are in seasonally adjusted annual rates both percentage changes and billions of dollars. The estimate of consumer credit “covers most short- and intermediate-term credit extended to individuals, excluding loans secured by real estate (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/default.htm). Consumer credit is divided into two categories. (1) Revolving consumer credit (REV in Table VA-4) consists mainly of unsecured credit cards. (2) Non-revolving consumer credit (NREV in Table VA-4) “includes automobile loans and all other loans not included in revolving credit, such as loans for mobile homes, education, boats, trailers or vacations” (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/default.htm). In Nov 2014, revolving credit was $882 billion, or 26.7 percent of total consumer credit of $3298 billion, and non-revolving credit was $2416 billion, or 73.3 percent of total consumer credit outstanding. Consumer credit grew at relatively high rates before the recession beginning in IVQ2007 (Dec) and extending to IIQ2009 (Jun) as dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research or NBER (http://www.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html). Percentage changes of consumer credit outstanding fell already in 2009. Rates were still negative in 2010 with decline of 1.0 percent in annual data and sharp decline of 7.6 percent in revolving credit. In IVQ 2013, total consumer credit grew at 5.4 percent with increase of revolving credit at 2.0 percent and increase of non-revolving credit at 6.7 percent. Growth continued in Nov 2014 with total credit at 5.1 percent, revolving at minus 1.3 percent and non-revolving at 7.5 percent.

Table VA-4, US, Consumer Credit Outstanding, SA, Annual Rate and Billions of Dollars

	Total ∆%	REV ∆%	NRV ∆%	Total $B	REV $B	NREV $B
2014
Nov	5.1	-1.3	7.5	3298	882	2416
Oct	5.9	2.0	7.3	3284	883	2401
Sep	6.2	2.1	7.7	3268	882	2386
IIIQ	6.7	2.9	8.1	3268	882	2386
IIQ	8.2	6.3	9.0	3214	875	2339
IQ	6.6	1.8	8.5	3149	861	2288
2013
IVQ	5.4	2.0	6.7	3097	857	2240
IIIQ	6.3	0.9	8.5	3056	853	2203
2013	6.0	1.3	7.9	3097	857	2240
2012	6.2	0.6	8.6	2924	847	2077
2011	4.1	0.2	5.9	2756	842	1914
2010	-1.0	-7.6	2.7	2647	840	1807
2009	-3.9	-8.8	-1.0	2553	917	1636
2008	1.3	0.2	2.0	2651	1005	1646
2007	5.9	8.5	4.3	2529	1008	1521

Note: REV: Revolving; NREV: Non-revolving; ∆%: simple annual rate from unrounded data; Total may not add exactly because of rounding

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/default.htm

Chart VA-5 of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System total consumer credit outstanding in millions of dollars measured in the right axis and the finance rate on 24-month personal loans at commercial banks, not seasonally adjusted, measured on the left axis. There was sharp decline of total consumer loans outstanding during the global recession followed by strong recovery. There is long-term decline of the financing rate.

Chart VA-5, US, Total Consumer Credit Owned and Securitized NSA and Financing Rate on 24-month Personal Loans at Commercial Banks NSA, Millions of Dollars and Percent, Feb 1972-Nov 2014

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/default.htm

Chart VA-6 of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System provides percentage changes of total consumer credit outstanding in the US and the financing rate on 24-month personal consumer loans at commercial banks, since 1972. The shaded bars are the cyclical contraction dates of the National Bureau of Economic Research (http://www.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html). Consumer credit is cyclical, declining during contractions as shown by negative percentage changes during economic contractions. There is clear upward trend in 2012-2013 but with significant fluctuations and vacillation in the final segment.

Chart VA-6, US, Percent Change of Total Consumer Credit, Seasonally Adjusted at an Annual Rate and Finance Rate on 24-month Personal Loans at Commercial Banks NSA, Feb 1972-Nov 2014

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/default.htm

VB Japan. The GDP of Japan grew at 1.0 percent per year on average from 1991 to 2002, with the GDP implicit deflator falling at 0.8 percent per year on average. The average growth rate of Japan’s GDP was 4 percent per year on average from the middle of the 1970s to 1992 (Ito 2004). Low growth in Japan in the 1990s is commonly labeled as “the lost decade” (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 81-115). Table VB-GDP provides yearly growth rates of Japan’s GDP from 1995 to 2013. Growth weakened from 2.7 per cent in 1995 and 1996 to contractions of 1.5 percent in 1999 and 0.4 percent in 2001 and growth rates below 2 percent with exception of 2.3 percent in 2003. Japan’s GDP contracted sharply by 3.7 percent in 2006 and 2.0 percent in 2009. As in most advanced economies, growth was robust at 3.4 percent in 2010 but mediocre at 0.3 percent in 2011 and 0.7 percent in 2013. Japan’s GDP grew 2.3 percent in 2013.

Table VB-GDP, Japan, Yearly Percentage Change of GDP  ∆%

Calendar Year	∆%
1995	2.7
1996	2.7
1997	0.1
1998	-1.5
1999	0.5
2000	2.0
2001	-0.4
2002	1.1
2003	2.3
2004	1.5
2005	1.9
2006	1.8
2007	1.8
2008	-3.7
2009	-2.0
2010	3.4
2011	0.3
2012	0.7
2013	2.3

Source: Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html

Table VB-BOJF provides the forecasts of economic activity and inflation in Japan by the majority of members of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, which is part of their Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1404b.pdf) with changes on Jul 14, 2014 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140715a.pdf). For fiscal 2013, the forecast is of growth of GDP between 2.2 and 2.3 percent, with the all items CPI less fresh food of 0.8 percent (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1404b.pdf). The critical difference is forecast of the CPI excluding fresh food of 3.2 to 3.5 percent in 2014, 1.9 to 2.8 percent in 2015 and 2.0 to 3.0 in 2016 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140715a.pdf). Consumer price inflation in Japan excluding fresh food was 0.4 percent in Apr 2014 and 3.4 percent in 12 months (http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1581.htm), significantly because of the increase of the tax on value added of consumption in Apr 2014. The new monetary policy of the Bank of Japan aims to increase inflation to 2 percent. These forecasts are biannual in Apr and Oct. The Cabinet Office, Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan released on Jan 22, 2013, a “Joint Statement of the Government and the Bank of Japan on Overcoming Deflation and Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130122c.pdf) with the important change of increasing the inflation target of monetary policy from 1 percent to 2 percent:

“The Bank of Japan conducts monetary policy based on the principle that the policy shall be aimed at achieving price stability, thereby contributing to the sound development of the national economy, and is responsible for maintaining financial system stability. The Bank aims to achieve price stability on a sustainable basis, given that there are various factors that affect prices in the short run.

The Bank recognizes that the inflation rate consistent with price stability on a sustainable basis will rise as efforts by a wide range of entities toward strengthening competitiveness and growth potential of Japan's economy make progress. Based on this recognition, the Bank sets the price stability target at 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index.

Under the price stability target specified above, the Bank will pursue monetary easing and aim to achieve this target at the earliest possible time. Taking into consideration that it will take considerable time before the effects of monetary policy permeate the economy, the Bank will ascertain whether there is any significant risk to the sustainability of economic growth, including from the accumulation of financial imbalances.”

The Bank of Japan also provided explicit analysis of its view on price stability in a “Background note regarding the Bank’s thinking on price stability” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/data/rel130123a1.pdf http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130123a.htm/). The Bank of Japan also amended “Principal terms and conditions for the Asset Purchase Program” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130122a.pdf): “Asset purchases and loan provision shall be conducted up to the maximum outstanding amounts by the end of 2013. From January 2014, the Bank shall purchase financial assets and provide loans every month, the amount of which shall be determined pursuant to the relevant rules of the Bank.”

Financial markets in Japan and worldwide were shocked by new bold measures of “quantitative and qualitative monetary easing” by the Bank of Japan (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The objective of policy is to “achieve the price stability target of 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) at the earliest possible time, with a time horizon of about two years” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The main elements of the new policy are as follows:

1. Monetary Base Control. Most central banks in the world pursue interest rates instead of monetary aggregates, injecting bank reserves to lower interest rates to desired levels. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has shifted back to monetary aggregates, conducting money market operations with the objective of increasing base money, or monetary liabilities of the government, at the annual rate of 60 to 70 trillion yen. The BOJ estimates base money outstanding at “138 trillion yen at end-2012) and plans to increase it to “200 trillion yen at end-2012 and 270 trillion yen at end 2014” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
2. Maturity Extension of Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds. Purchases of bonds will be extended even up to bonds with maturity of 40 years with the guideline of extending the average maturity of BOJ bond purchases from three to seven years. The BOJ estimates the current average maturity of Japanese government bonds (JGB) at around seven years. The BOJ plans to purchase about 7.5 trillion yen per month (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130404d.pdf). Takashi Nakamichi, Tatsuo Ito and Phred Dvorak, wiring on “Bank of Japan mounts bid for revival,” on Apr 4, 2013, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323646604578401633067110420.html), find that the limit of maturities of three years on purchases of JGBs was designed to avoid views that the BOJ would finance uncontrolled government deficits.
3. Seigniorage. The BOJ is pursuing coordination with the government that will take measures to establish “sustainable fiscal structure with a view to ensuring the credibility of fiscal management” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
4. Diversification of Asset Purchases. The BOJ will engage in transactions of exchange traded funds (ETF) and real estate investment trusts (REITS) and not solely on purchases of JGBs. Purchases of ETFs will be at an annual rate of increase of one trillion yen and purchases of REITS at 30 billion yen.
5. Bank Lending Facility and Growth Supporting Funding Facility. At the meeting on Feb 18, the Bank of Japan doubled the scale of these lending facilities to prevent their expiration in the near future (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140218a.pdf).

Table VB-BOJF, Bank of Japan, Forecasts of the Majority of Members of the Policy Board, % Year on Year

Fiscal Year Date of Forecast	Real GDP	CPI All Items Less Fresh Food	Excluding Effects of Consumption Tax Hikes
2013
Apr 2014	+2.2 to +2.3 [+2.2]	+0.8
Jan 2014	+2.5 to +2.9 [+2.7]	+0.7 to +0.9 [+0.7]
Oct 2013	+2.6 to +3.0 [+2.7]	+0.6 to +1.0 [+0.7]
Jul 2013	+2.5 to +3.0 [+2.8]	+0.5 to +0.8 [+0.6]
2014
Jul 2014	+0.6 to +1.3 [+1.0]	+3.2 to +3.5 [+3.3]	+1.2 to +1.5 [+1.3]
Apr 2014	+0.8 to +1.3 [+1.1]	+3.0 to +3.5 [+3.3]	+1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3]
Jan 2014	+0.9 to 1.5 [+1.4]	+2.9 to +3.6 [+3.3]	+0.9 to +1.6 [+1.3]
Oct 2013	+0.9 to +1.5 [+1.5]	+2.8 to +3.6 [+3.3]	+0.8 to +1.6 [+1.3]
Jul 2013	+0.8 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+2.7 to +3.6 [+3.3]	+0.7 to +1.6 [+1.3]
2015
Jul 2014	+1.2 to +1.6 [+1.5]	+1.9 to +2.8 [+2.6]	+1.2 to +2.1 [+1.9]
Apr 2014	+1.2 to +1.5 [+1.5]	+1.9 to +2.8 [+2.6]	+1.2 to +2.1 [+1.9]
Jan 2014	+1.2 to +1.8 [+1.5]	+1.7 to +2.9 [+2.6]	+1.0 to +2.2 [+1.9]
Oct 2013	+1.3 to +1.8 [+1.5]	+1.6 to +2.9 [+2.6]	+0.9 to +2.2 [+1.9]
Jul 2013	+1.3 to +1.9 [+1.5]	+1.6 to +2.9 [+2.6]	+0.9 to +2.2 [+1.9]
2016
Jul 2014	+1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+2.0 to +3.0 [+2.8]	+1.3 to +2.3 [+2.1]
Apr 2014	+1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+2.0 to +3.0 [+2.8]	+1.3 to +2.3 [+2.1]

Figures in brackets are the median of forecasts of Policy Board members

Source: Policy Board, Bank of Japan

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140715a.pdf

The Markit/JMMA Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI Index™ with the Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI™ decreased from 52.0 in Nov to 52.1 in Dec and the Flash Japan Manufacturing Output Index™ increased from 52.7 in Nov to 53.3 in Dec (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/81cd7459dab241dbbdde5e87c3dd1ae6). New export orders increased at a slower pace. Amy Brownbill, Economist at Markit, finds improving Japan’s manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/81cd7459dab241dbbdde5e87c3dd1ae6). Private-sector activity in Japan improved marginally with the Markit Composite Output PMI Index increasing from 49.5 in Oct to 51.2 in Nov, indicating modest improvement (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4d4d9e4343014b418f3d900d3445d46a). The Markit Business Activity Index of Services increased to 50.6 in Nov from 48.7 in Oct (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4d4d9e4343014b418f3d900d3445d46a). Amy Brownbill, Ecoomist at Markit and author of the report, finds the reading consistent with growth (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4d4d9e4343014b418f3d900d3445d46a). The Markit/JMMA Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI™), seasonally adjusted, decreased from 52.4 in Oct to 52.0 in Nov (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8d624f6683ba4e119b6a525e6e8b56fb). New orders, output and foreign orders increased. Philip Leake, Economist at Markit, finds higher manufacturing improvement (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8d624f6683ba4e119b6a525e6e8b56fb).Table JPY provides the country data table for Japan.

Table JPY, Japan, Economic Indicators

Historical GDP and CPI	1981-2010 Real GDP Growth and CPI Inflation 1981-2010 Blog 8/9/11 Table 26
Corporate Goods Prices	Nov ∆% -0.2 12 months ∆% 2.7 Blog 12/14/14
Consumer Price Index	Nov NSA ∆% -0.4; Nov 12 months NSA ∆% 2.4 Blog 12/28/14
Real GDP Growth	IIIQ2014 ∆%: -0.5 on IIQ2014;  IIIQ2014 SAAR -1.9; ∆% from quarter a year earlier: -1.3 % Blog 6/16/13 8/18/13 9/15/13 11/17/13 12/15/13 2/23/14 3/16/14 5/18/14 6/15/14 8/17/14 9/14/14 11/23/14 12/14/14
Employment Report	Nov Unemployed 2.19 million Change in unemployed since last year: minus 300 thousand Unemployment rate: 3.5 % Blog 12/28/14
All Industry Indices	Oct month SA ∆% -0.1 12-month NSA ∆% -1.0 Blog 12/28/14
Industrial Production	Nov SA month ∆%: -0.6 12-month NSA ∆% -3.8 Blog 12/28/14
Machine Orders	Total Oct ∆% -2.9 Private ∆%: -7.9 Oct ∆% Excluding Volatile Orders minus 6.4 Blog 12/14/14
Tertiary Index	Oct month SA ∆% -0.2 Oct 12 months NSA ∆% minus 0.9 Blog 12/14/14
Wholesale and Retail Sales	Nov 12 months: Total ∆%: -2.7 Wholesale ∆%: -4.0 Retail ∆%: 0.4 Blog 12/28/14
Family Income and Expenditure Survey	Nov 12-month ∆% total nominal consumption 0.3, real -2.5 Blog 12/28/14
Trade Balance	Exports Nov 12 months ∆%: 4.9 Imports Nov 12 months ∆% -1.7 Blog 12/21/14

Links to blog comments in Table JPY:

12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

12/21/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/patience-on-interest-rate-increases.html

12/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/global-financial-and-economic-risk.html

11/23/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.htm

9/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitics-monetary-policy-and.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

6/15/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financialgeopolitical-risks-recovery.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html

2/23/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html

12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

VC China. China estimates an index of nonmanufacturing purchasing managers based on a sample of 1200 nonmanufacturing enterprises across the country (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Table CIPMNM provides this index and components. The total index increased from 55.7 in Jan 2011 to 58.0 in Mar 2012, decreasing to 53.9 in Aug 2013. The index decreased from 56.0 in Nov 2013 to 54.6 in Dec 2013, easing to 53.4 in Jan 2014. The index moved to 54.1 in Dec 2014. The index of new orders increased from 52.2 in Jan 2012 to 54.3 in Dec 2012 but fell to 50.1 in May 2013, barely above the neutral frontier of 50.0. The index of new orders stabilized at 51.0 in Nov-Dec 2013, easing to 50.9 in Jan 2014. The index of new orders moved to 50.5 in Dec 2014.

Table CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted

	Total Index	New Orders	Interm. Input Prices	Subs Prices	Exp
Dec 2014	54.1	50.5	50.1	47.3	59.5
Nov	53.9	50.1	50.6	47.7	59.7
Oct	53.8	51.0	52.0	48.8	59.9
Sep	54.0	49.5	49.8	47.3	60.9
Aug	54.4	50.0	52.2	48.3	61.2
Jul	54.2	50.7	53.4	49.5	61.5
Jun	55.0	50.7	56.0	50.8	60.4
May	55.5	52.7	54.5	49.0	60.7
Apr	54.8	50.8	52.4	49.4	61.5
Mar	54.5	50.8	52.8	49.5	61.5
Feb	55.0	51.4	52.1	49.0	59.9
Jan	53.4	50.9	54.5	50.1	58.1
Dec 2013	54.6	51.0	56.9	52.0	58.7
Nov	56.0	51.0	54.8	49.5	61.3
Oct	56.3	51.6	56.1	51.4	60.5
Sep	55.4	53.4	56.7	50.6	60.1
Aug	53.9	50.9	57.1	51.2	62.9
Jul	54.1	50.3	58.2	52.4	63.9
Jun	53.9	50.3	55.0	50.6	61.8
May	54.3	50.1	54.4	50.7	62.9
Apr	54.5	50.9	51.1	47.6	62.5
Mar	55.6	52.0	55.3	50.0	62.4
Feb	54.5	51.8	56.2	51.1	62.7
Jan	56.2	53.7	58.2	50.9	61.4
Dec 2012	56.1	54.3	53.8	50.0	64.6
Nov	55.6	53.2	52.5	48.4	64.6
Oct	55.5	51.6	58.1	50.5	63.4
Sep	53.7	51.8	57.5	51.3	60.9
Aug	56.3	52.7	57.6	51.2	63.2
Jul	55.6	53.2	49.7	48.7	63.9
Jun	56.7	53.7	52.1	48.6	65.5
May	55.2	52.5	53.6	48.5	65.4
Apr	56.1	52.7	57.9	50.3	66.1
Mar	58.0	53.5	60.2	52.0	66.6
Feb	57.3	52.7	59.0	51.2	63.8
Jan	55.7	52.2	58.2	51.1	65.3

Notes: Interm.: Intermediate; Subs: Subscription; Exp: Business Expectations

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart CIPMNM provides China’s nonmanufacturing purchasing managers’ index. The index fell from 56.0 in Oct 2013 to 54.1 in Dec 2014.

Table CIPMMFG provides the index of purchasing managers of manufacturing seasonally adjusted of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The general index (IPM) rose from 50.5 in Jan 2012 to 53.3 in Apr 2012, falling to 49.2 in Aug 2012, rebounding to 50.6 in Dec 2012. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013, barely above the neutral frontier at 50.0, recovering to 51.4 in Nov 2013 but falling to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.5 in Jan 2014 and 50.1 in Dec 2014. The index of new orders fell from 54.5 in Apr 2012 to 51.2 in Dec 2012. The index of new orders fell from 52.3 in Nov 2013 to 52.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.9 in Jan 2014 and moved to 50.4 in Dec 2014.

Table CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted

	IPM	PI	NOI	INV	EMP	SDEL
2014
Dec	50.1	52.2	50.4	47.5	48.1	49.9
Nov	50.3	52.5	50.9	47.7	48.2	50.3
Oct	50.8	53.1	51.6	48.4	48.4	50.1
Sep	51.1	53.6	52.2	48.8	48.2	50.1
Aug	51.1	53.2	52.5	48.6	48.2	50.0
Jul	51.7	54.2	53.6	49.0	48.3	50.2
Jun	51.0	53.0	52.8	48.0	48.6	50.5
May	50.8	52.8	52.3	48.0	48.2	50.3
Apr	50.4	52.5	51.2	48.1	48.3	50.1
Mar	50.3	52.7	50.6	47.8	48.3	49.8
Feb	50.2	52.6	50.5	47.4	48.0	49.9
Jan	50.5	53.0	50.9	47.8	48.2	49.8
Dec 2013	51.0	53.9	52.0	47.6	48.7	50.5
Nov	51.4	54.5	52.3	47.8	49.6	50.6
Oct	51.4	54.4	52.5	48.6	49.2	50.8
Sep	51.1	52.9	52.8	48.5	49.1	50.8
Aug	51.0	52.6	52.4	48.0	49.3	50.4
Jul	50.3	52.4	50.6	47.6	49.1	50.1
Jun	50.1	52.0	50.4	47.4	48.7	50.3
May	50.8	53.3	51.8	47.6	48.8	50.8
Apr	50.6	52.6	51.7	47.5	49.0	50.8
Mar	50.9	52.7	52.3	47.5	49.8	51.1
Feb	50.1	51.2	50.1	49.5	47.6	48.3
Jan	50.4	51.3	51.6	50.1	47.8	50.0
Dec 2012	50.6	52.0	51.2	47.3	49.0	48.8
Nov	50.6	52.5	51.2	47.9	48.7	49.9
Oct	50.2	52.1	50.4	47.3	49.2	50.1
Sep	49.8	51.3	49.8	47.0	48.9	49.5
Aug	49.2	50.9	48.7	45.1	49.1	50.0
Jul	50.1	51.8	49.0	48.5	49.5	49.0
Jun	50.2	52.0	49.2	48.2	49.7	49.1
May	50.4	52.9	49.8	45.1	50.5	49.0
Apr	53.3	57.2	54.5	48.5	51.0	49.6
Mar	53.1	55.2	55.1	49.5	51.0	48.9
Feb	51.0	53.8	51.0	48.8	49.5	50.3
Jan	50.5	53.6	50.4	49.7	47.1	49.7

IPM: Index of Purchasing Managers; PI: Production Index; NOI: New Orders Index; EMP: Employed Person Index; SDEL: Supplier Delivery Time Index

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

China estimates the manufacturing index of purchasing managers on the basis of a sample of 820 enterprises (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Chart CIPMMFG provides the manufacturing index of purchasing managers. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013. The index decreased from 51.4 in Nov 2013 to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index moved to 50.1 in Dec 2014.

Chart CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Cumulative growth of China’s GDP in IIIQ2014 relative to the same period in 2013 was 7.4 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDP. Secondary industry accounts for 44.2 percent of cumulative GDP in IIIQ2014. In cumulative IIIQ2014, industry alone accounts for 37.4 percent of GDP and construction with the remaining 6.8 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 46.7 percent of cumulative GDP in IIIQ2014 and primary industry for 9.0 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is shifting to lower growth rates with improvement in living standards. The bottom block of Table VC-GDP provides quarter-on-quarter growth rates of GDP and their annual equivalent. China’s GDP growth decelerated significantly from annual equivalent 10.4 percent in IIQ2011 to 7.4 percent in IVQ2011 and 5.7 percent in IQ2012, rebounding to 8.7 percent in IIQ2012, 8.2 percent in IIIQ2012 and 7.8 percent in IVQ2012. Annual equivalent growth in IQ2013 fell to 6.6 percent and to 7.3 percent in IIQ2013, rebounding to 9.5 percent in IIIQ2013. Annual equivalent growth was 7.0 percent in IVQ2013, declining to 6.1 percent in IQ2014 and increasing to 8.2 percent in IIQ2014. Annual equivalent growth slowed to 7.8 percent in IIIQ2014.

Table VC-GDP, China, Quarterly Growth of GDP, Current CNY 100 Million and Inflation Adjusted ∆%

Cumulative GDP IIIQ2014	Value Current CNY Billion	2014 Year-on-Year Constant Prices ∆%
GDP	41,990.8	7.4
Primary Industry	3799.6	4.2
Farming	3799.6	4.2
Secondary Industry	18,578.7	7.4
Industry	15,705.7	7.1
Construction	2873.0	9.0
Tertiary Industry	19,612.5	7.9
Transport, Storage, Post	2337.0	7.0
Wholesale, Retail Trades	3893.0	9.7
Hotel & Catering Services	847.6	6.2
Financial Intermediation	2965.5	9.1
Real Estate	2641.4	2.3
Other	6928.0	9.0
Growth in Quarter Relative to Prior Quarter	∆% on Prior Quarter	∆% Annual Equivalent
2014
IIIQ2014	1.9	7.8
IIQ2014	2.0	8.2
IQ2014	1.5	6.1
2013
IVQ2013	1.7	7.0
IIIQ2013	2.3	9.5
IIQ2013	1.8	7.4
IQ2013	1.6	6.6
2012
IVQ2012	1.9	7.8
IIIQ2012	2.0	8.2
IIQ2012	2.1	8.7
IQ2012	1.4	5.7
2011
IVQ2011	1.8	7.4
IIIQ2011	2.2	9.1
IIQ2011	2.5	10.4
IQ2011	2.3	9.5

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Growth of China’s GDP in IIIQ2014 relative to the same period in 2013 was 7.3 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDPA. Secondary industry accounts for 44.2 percent of GDP of which industry alone for 37.4 percent in cumulative IIIQ2014 and construction with the remaining 6.8 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 46.7 percent of GDP in cumulative IIQ2014 and primary industry for 9.0 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is changing to lower growth rates while improving living standards. GDP growth decelerated from 12.1 percent in IQ2010 and 11.2 percent in IIQ2010 to 7.7 percent in IQ2013, 7.5 percent in IIQ2013 and 7.8 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP grew 7.7 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 1.7 percent relative to IIIQ2013, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent per year. GDP grew 7.4 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.5 percent in IQ2014 that is equivalent to 6.1 percent per year. GP grew 7.5 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 2.0 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is equivalent 8.2 percent. In IIIQ2014, GDP grew 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier and 1.9 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is 7.8 percent in annual equivalent.

Table VC-GDPA, China, Growth Rate of GDP, ∆% Relative to a Year Earlier and ∆% Relative to Prior Quarter

	IQ 2013	IIQ 2013	IIIQ 2013	IVQ 2013	IQ 2014	IIQ 2014	IIIQ 2014
GDP	7.7	7.5	7.8	7.7	7.4	7.5	7.3
Primary Industry	3.4	3.0	3.4	4.0	3.5	3.9	4.2
Secondary Industry	7.8	7.6	7.8	7.8	7.3	7.4	7.4
Tertiary Industry	8.3	8.3	8.4	8.3	7.1	8.0	7.9
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.6	1.8	2.3	1.7	1.5	2.0	1.9
	IQ 2011	IIQ 2011	IIIQ 2011	IVQ 2011	IQ  2012	IIQ 2012	IIIQ 2012	IVQ 2012
GDP	9.7	9.5	9.1	8.9	8.1	7.6	7.4	7.9
Primary Industry	3.5	3.2	3.8	4.5	3.8	4.3	4.2	4.5
Secondary Industry	11.1	11.0	10.8	10.6	9.1	8.3	8.1	8.1
Tertiary Industry	9.1	9.2	9.0	8.9	7.5	7.7	7.9	8.1
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	2.3	2.5	2.2	1.8	1.4	2.1	2.0	1.9
	IQ 2010	IIQ 2010	IIIQ 2010	IVQ 2010
GDP	12.1	11.2	10.7	12.1
Primary Industry	3.8	3.6	4.0	3.8
Secondary Industry	14.5	13.3	12.6	14.5
Tertiary Industry	10.5	9.9	9.7	10.5

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart VC-GDP of the National Bureau of Statistics of China provides annual value and growth rates of GDP. China’s GDP growth in 2013 is still high at 7.7 percent but at the lowest rhythm in five years.

Chart VC-GDP, China, Gross Domestic Product, Million Yuan and ∆%, 2009-2013

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart VC-FXR provides China’s foreign exchange reserves. FX reserves grew from $2399.2 billion in 2009 to $3821.3 billion in 2013 driven by high growth of China’s trade surplus.

Chart VC-FXR, China, Foreign Exchange Reserves, 2009-2013

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Chart VC-Trade provides China’s imports and exports. Exports exceeded imports with resulting large trade balance surpluses that increased foreign exchange reserves.

Chart VC-Trade, China, Imports and Exports of Goods, 2009-2013, $100 Million US Dollars

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) compiled by Markit (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/69a0d2d7ecd640b6be58e210bc9f3a84) is weakening. The overall Flash HSBC China Manufacturing PMI^™ decreased from 50.0 in Nov to 49.5 in Dec, while the Flash HSBC China Manufacturing Output Index increased from 49.6 in Nov to 49.7 in Dec, indicating moderate stress. Exports orders indicate expansion at slower rate. Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds need for monetary/fiscal stimulus (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/69a0d2d7ecd640b6be58e210bc9f3a84). The HSBC China Services PMI^™, compiled by Markit, shows the HSBC Composite Output, combining manufacturing and services, decreasing from 51.7 in Oct to 51.1 in Nov (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/81ccf5b34a7747ab9386ee55a13b09ac). Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds need of easing policies in consolidating growth (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/81ccf5b34a7747ab9386ee55a13b09ac). The HSBC China Services Business Activity index increased from 52.9 in Oct to 53.0 in Nov (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/81ccf5b34a7747ab9386ee55a13b09ac). Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds that the services PMI shows sustained activity (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/81ccf5b34a7747ab9386ee55a13b09ac). The HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™), compiled by Markit, decreased to 49.6 in Dec from 50.0 in Nov, indicating near neutral manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/870b45541fcd4c39aff1342749abe385). New export orders slowed. Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds weakening demand in China with possible need of monetary and fiscal policy enhancement (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/870b45541fcd4c39aff1342749abe385). Table CNY provides the country data table for China.

Table CNY, China, Economic Indicators

Price Indexes for Industry	Nov 12-month ∆%: minus 2.7 Nov month ∆%: -0.5 Blog 12/14/14
Consumer Price Index	Nov month ∆%: -0.2 Nov 12 months ∆%: 1.4 Blog 12/14/14
Value Added of Industry	Nov month ∆%: 0.52 Jan-Nov 2014/Jan-Nov 2013 ∆%: 8.3 Blog 12/21/14
GDP Growth Rate	Year IIIQ2014 ∆%: 7.5 First Three Quarters 2014 ∆%: 7.3 Quarter IIQ2014 AE ∆%: 7.8 Blog 10/26/14
Investment in Fixed Assets	Total Jan-Nov 2014 ∆%: 15.8 Real estate development: 11.9 Blog 12/21/14
Retail Sales	Nov month ∆%: 0.89 Nov 12 month ∆%: 11.7 Jan-Nov ∆%: 12.0 Blog 12/21/14
Trade Balance	Nov balance $54.5 billion Exports 12M ∆% 4.7 Imports 12M ∆% -6.7 Cumulative Jan-Nov: $332.5 billion Blog 12/14/14

Links to blog comments in Table CNY:

12/21/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/patience-on-interest-rate-increases.html

12/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/global-financial-and-economic-risk.html

10/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/financial-oscillations-world-inflation.html

VD Euro Area. Table VD-EUR provides yearly growth rates of the combined GDP of the members of the European Monetary Union (EMU) or euro area since 1996. Growth was very strong at 3.3 percent in 2006 and 3.0 percent in 2007. The global recession had strong impact with growth of only 0.4 percent in 2008 and decline of 4.4 percent in 2009. Recovery was at lower growth rates of 2.0 percent in 2010 and 1.6 percent in 2011. EUROSTAT estimates growth of GDP of the euro area of minus 0.7 percent in 2012 and minus 0.4 percent in 2013 but 1.1 percent in 2014 and 1.7 percent in 2015.

Table VD-EUR, Euro Area, Yearly Percentage Change of Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, Unemployment and GDP ∆%

Year	HICP ∆%	Unemployment %	GDP ∆%
1999	1.2	9.6	2.9
2000	2.2	8.8	3.8
2001	2.4	8.2	2.0
2002	2.3	8.5	0.9
2003	2.1	9.0	0.7
2004	2.2	9.2	2.2
2005	2.2	9.1	1.7
2006	2.2	8.4	3.3
2007	2.2	7.5	3.0
2008	3.3	7.6	0.4
2009	0.3	9.6	-4.5
2010	1.6	10.1	1.9
2011	2.7	10.1	1.6
2012	2.5	11.3	-0.7
2013*	1.3	12.0	-0.4
2014*			1.1
2015*			1.7

*EUROSTAT forecast Source: EUROSTAT

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database

The GDP of the euro area in 2012 in current US dollars in the dataset of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is $12,199.1 billion or 16.9 percent of world GDP of $72,216.4 billion (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/02/weodata/index.aspx). The sum of the GDP of France $2613.9 billion with the GDP of Germany of $3429.5 billion, Italy of $2014.1 billion and Spain $1323.5 billion is $9381.0 billion or 76.9 percent of total euro area GDP and 13.0 percent of World GDP. The four largest economies account for slightly more than three quarters of economic activity of the euro area. Table VD-EUR1 is constructed with the dataset of EUROSTAT, providing growth rates of the euro area as a whole and of the largest four economies of Germany, France, Italy and Spain annually from 1996 to 2011 with the estimate of 2012 and forecasts for 2013, 2014 and 2015 by EUROSTAT. The impact of the global recession on the overall euro area economy and on the four largest economies was quite strong. There was sharp contraction in 2009 and growth rates have not rebounded to earlier growth with exception of Germany in 2010 and 2011.

Table VD-EUR1, Euro Area, Real GDP Growth Rate, ∆%

	Euro Area	Germany	France	Italy	Spain
2015*	1.7	1.9	1.7	1.2	1.7
2014*	1.1	1.7	0.9	0.7	0.5
2013*	-0.4	0.4	0.2	-1.9	-1.2
2012	-0.7	0.7	0.0	-2.4	-1.6
2011	1.6	3.3	2.0	0.4	0.1
2010	1.9	4.0	1.7	1.7	-0.2
2009	-4.5	-5.1	-3.1	-5.5	-3.8
2008	0.4	1.1	-0.1	-1.2	0.9
2007	3.0	3.3	2.3	1.7	3.5
2006	3.3	3.7	2.5	2.2	4.1
2005	1.7	0.7	1.8	0.9	3.6
2004	2.2	1.2	2.5	1.7	3.3
2003	0.7	-0.4	0.9	0.0	3.1
2002	0.9	0.0	0.9	0.5	2.7
2001	2.0	1.5	1.8	1.9	3.7
2000	3.8	3.1	3.7	3.7	5.0
1999	2.9	1.9	3.3	1.5	4.7
1998	2.8	1.9	3.4	1.4	4.5
1997	2.6	1.7	2.2	1.9	3.9
1996	1.5	0.8	1.1	1.1	2.5

Source: EUROSTAT

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database

The Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index of the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI^®, combining activity in manufacturing and services, increased from 51.1 in Nov to 51.7 in Dec (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/5ae226e01c7044b5b409e82e0c306318). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds that the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI index suggests GDP growth around 0.1 percent in IVQ2014 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/5ae226e01c7044b5b409e82e0c306318). The Markit Eurozone PMI^® Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing activity with close association with GDP decreased from 52.1 in Oct to 51.1 in Nov (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b7b53af9b6f94a8b8c83172ba9c9bc55). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds slowing growth of GDP at around 0.1 percent in IVQ2014 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b7b53af9b6f94a8b8c83172ba9c9bc55). The Markit Eurozone Services Business Activity Index decreased from 52.3 in Oct to 52.1 in Nov (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/01d8b102223d449881e2878c1544c892). The Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI^® increased to 50.6 in Dec from 50.1 in Nov (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/718a95fe800e414d89e4fe0726e66070). New export orders increased at faster pace. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds near stagnation of industrial growth in the euro area (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/718a95fe800e414d89e4fe0726e66070

Table EUR, Euro Area Economic Indicators

GDP	IIIQ2014 ∆% 0.2; IIIQ2014/IIIQ2013 ∆% 0.8 Blog 12/7/14
Unemployment	Nov 2014: 11.5 % unemployment rate; Nov 2014: 18.394 million unemployed Blog 1/11/15
HICP	Nov month ∆%: -0.2 12 months Nov ∆%: 0.3 Blog 12/21/14
Producer Prices	Euro Zone industrial producer prices Nov ∆%: -0.3 Nov 12-month ∆%: -1.6 Blog 1/11/14
Industrial Production	Oct month ∆%: 0.1; Oct 12 months ∆%: 0.7 Blog 12/14/14
Retail Sales	Nov month ∆%: 0.6 Nov 12 months ∆%: 1.5 Blog 1/11/15
Confidence and Economic Sentiment Indicator	Sentiment 100.7 Dec 2014 Consumer minus 10.9 Dec 2014 Blog 1/11/15
Trade	Jan-Oct 2014/Jan-Oct 2013 Exports ∆%: 1.9 Imports ∆%: 0.2 Oct 2014 12-month Exports ∆% 3.9 Imports ∆% -0.4 Blog 12/21/14

Links to blog comments in Table EUR:

12/21/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/patience-on-interest-rate-increases.html

12/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/financial-risks-twenty-six-million.html

EUROSTAT estimates the rate of unemployment in the euro area at 11.5 percent in

Nov 2014, as shown in Table VD-1. The number of unemployed in Nov 2014 was 18.394 million, which was 0.522 million lower than 18.916 million in Nov 2013. The rate of unemployment stabilized from 11.9 percent in Nov 2013 to 11.5 percent in Nov 2014

Table VD-1, Euro Area, Unemployment Rate and Number of Unemployed, % and Millions, SA 

	Unemployment Rate %	Number Unemployed Millions
Nov 2014	11.5	18.394
Oct	11.5	18.360
Sep	11.5	18.297
Aug	11.5	18.275
Jul	11.6	18.390
Jun	11.5	18.346
May	11.6	18.453
Apr	11.6	18.491
Mar	11.7	18.596
Feb	11.8	18.679
Jan	11.8	18.750
Dec 2013	11.8	18.771
Nov	11.9	18.916
Oct	11.9	18.947
Sep	12.0	19.088
Aug	12.0	19.084
Jul	12.0	19.052
Jun	12.0	19.132
May	12.0	19.115
Apr	12.0	19.100
Mar	12.0	19.041
Feb	12.0	19.026
Jan	12.0	19.002
Dec 2012	11.8	18.809
Nov	11.8	18.700
Oct	11.7	18.631
Sep	11.5	18.358
Aug	11.4	18.180
Jul	11.4	18.138
Jun	11.4	18.036
May	11.3	17.850
Apr	11.2	17.727
Mar	11.0	17.465
Feb	10.9	17.203
Jan	10.7	16.965
Dec 2011	10.6	16.801
Nov	10.6	16.680
Oct	10.4	16.387
Sep	10.3	16.254
Aug	10.2	16.035
Jul	10.1	15.852
Jun	10.0	15.640
May	9.9	15.584
Apr	9.9	15.452
Mar	9.9	15.561
Feb	10.0	15.582
Jan	10.0	15.636
Dec 2010	10.1	15.732

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

Table VD-2 shows the disparity in rates of unemployment in the euro area with 11.5 percent for the region as a whole and 18.394 million unemployed but 5.0 percent in Germany and 2.108 million unemployed. At the other extreme is Spain with rate of unemployment of 23.9 percent and 5.467 million unemployed. The rate of unemployment of the European Union in Nov 2014 is 10.0 percent with 24.423 million unemployed.

Table VD-2, Unemployed and Unemployment Rate in Countries and Regions, Millions and %

Nov 2014	Unemployment Rate %	Unemployed Millions
Euro Zone	11.5	18.394
Germany	5.0	2.108
France	10.3	3.028
Netherlands	6.5	0.585
Finland	8.9	0.239
Portugal	13.9	0.714
Ireland	10.7	0.230
Italy	13.4	3.457
Greece	25.7*	1.241*
Spain	23.9	5.467
Belgium	8.5	0.421
European Union	10.0	24.423

*Sep 2014

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

Chart VD-1 of EUROSTAT illustrates the wide difference in rates of unemployment in countries and regions.

Chart VD-1, Unemployment Rate in Various Countries and Regions

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

Retail sales in the euro zone increased 0.6 percent in Nov 2014 and increased 1.4 percent in 12 months, as shown in Table VD-3. The 12-month rates of growth became negative between Mar 2011 and Dec 2013 with exception of 0.6 percent in Apr 2011, 0.0 percent in Mar 2012 and 1.5 percent in Nov 2013. The lower part of Table VD-3 provides annual percentage changes of inflation-adjusted retail sales in the euro zone since 2001. Retail sales fell 0.6 percent in 2010 after falling 0.4 percent in 2009 and 1.8 percent in 2008 and fell again by 1.9 percent in 2011 and 2.7 percent in 2012. Retail sales decreased 0.1 percent in 2013.

Table VD-3, Euro Zone, Volume of Retail Sales, Deflated ∆%

	Month ∆%	12-Month CA ∆%
Nov 2014	0.6	1.5
Oct	0.6	1.6
Sep	-0.9	0.4
Aug	0.6	1.6
Jul	-0.3	0.6
Jun	0.4	2.0
May	0.2	0.6
Apr	0.0	1.7
Mar	0.0	1.0
Feb	0.3	1.2
Jan	0.7	0.8
Dec 2013	-0.8	-0.1
Nov	0.9	1.5
Oct	-0.3	-0.5
Sep	-0.2	-0.2
Aug	-0.1	-0.3
Jul	1.0	-0.9
Jun	-1.0	-1.7
May	1.1	-0.2
Apr	-0.2	-1.3
Mar	-0.1	-2.4
Feb	-0.2	-2.2
Jan	0.3	-2.2
Dec 2012	-0.1	-2.7
Nov	-0.3	-1.9
Oct	-0.2	-3.1
Sep	-1.0	-1.9
Aug	-0.2	-0.7
Jul	0.0	-1.4
Jun	0.4	-0.9
May	0.3	-0.7
Apr	-1.4	-3.5
Mar	0.2	0.0
Feb	0.1	-2.1
Jan	-0.3	-0.9
Dec 2011	0.3	-1.9
Nov	-0.8	-1.6
Oct	0.3	-0.8
Sep	-0.1	-1.4
Aug	-0.3	-0.2
Jul	0.2	-0.6
Jun	0.9	-1.0
May	-1.9	-1.8
Apr	1.2	0.6
Mar	-1.5	-1.5
Feb	0.9	1.2
Jan	-0.5	0.6
Dec ∆%
2013		-0.1
2012		-2.7
2011		-1.9
2010		-0.6
2009		-0.4
2008		-1.8
2007		-0.9
2006		2.3
2005		1.0
2004		2.3
2003		0.7
2002		-0.3
2001		1.9

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

Growth rates of retail sales of the euro zone by major segments are in Table VD-4. Total sales increased 0.6 percent in Nov 2014 and increased 1.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2014. Food sales increased 0.5 percent in Nov 2014 and increased 0.1 percent in 12 months and sales of nonfood products increased 1.4 percent in Nov and increased 2.8 percent in 12 months. Sales of automotive fuel stores increased 1.4 percent in Nov and increased 1.5 percent in 12 months.

Table VD-4, Euro Zone, Volume of Retail Sales by Products, ∆%

Nov 2014	Month ∆%	12-Month ∆%
Total	0.6	1.5
Food, Drinks, Tobacco	0.5	0.1
Nonfood Products ex Automotive Fuel	1.4	2.8
Automotive Fuel in Specialized Stores	1.4	1.5

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

Month and 12-month percentage rates of change of retail sales by member countries of the euro zone are shown in Table VD-5 for Nov 2014. Retail sales are mixed throughout the euro zone. The 12-month percentage changes are positive for several members in Table VD-5 such as 0.7 percent for France, 4.9 percent Ireland, 2.3 percent Germany and 0.2 percent for Portugal. The 12-month percentage change for the UK, which is not a member of the euro zone, was 6.8 percent. The European Union’s 12-month percentage change was 2.6 percent.

Table VD-5, Euro Zone, Volume of Retail Sales by Member Countries, ∆%

Nov 2014	Month ∆%	12-Month ∆%
Euro Zone	0.6	1.5
Germany	1.0	2.3
France	0.8	0.7
Netherlands	0.8*	-1.6*
Finland	-2.0	-2.4
Belgium	-0.2	0.7
Portugal	3.0	0.2
Ireland	0.0*	4.9*
Italy	0.1*	0.4*
Greece	0.7*	3.8*
Spain	1.0	2.1
UK	1.5	6.8
European Union	0.8	2.6

*Oct 2014

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

The Economic Sentiment Indicator of the European Economic Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs, provides correlation with the economic cycle since 1990, capturing all three recessions in the period and even the threat of recession from 1994 to 1995. The latest chart of this index accessible in the link in parenthesis shows trend of decline in 2011 and 2012 that has punctured the historical average of 100 and resumed downward trend in 2012 followed by recovery moving closer to the average (http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/index_en.htm). Table VD-6 provides the index decreasing from 101.0 in Jan 2014 to 100.7 in Dec 2014. The index is above the minimum value of 70.1 reached in Mar 2009, close to the average of 100.

Table VD-6, Euro Area, Indicators of Confidence and Economic Sentiment SA

	ESI	IND	SERV	CON	RET	CONS
Historical Average	100.0	-6.9	8.9	-13.1	-9.0	-18.4
Maximum	118.6 05-00	7.9 04-07	35.4     08-98	2.4 05-00	5.2 06-90	6.0 02-90
Minimum	70.1 03-09	-38.1 03-09	-26.1 03-09	-34.3 03-09	-24.9 01-93	-46.0 09-93
Dec 2014	100.7	-5.2	5.6	-10.9	-5.3	-25.5
Nov	100.7	-4.3	4.4	-11.5	-6.0	-26.3
Oct	100.7	-5.1	4.4	-11.1	-6.4	-24.6
Sep	99.9	-5.5	3.2	-11.4	-7.3	-27.7
Aug	100.6	-5.3	3.1	-10.0	-4.6	-28.4
Jul	102.2	-3.8	3.6	-8.3	-2.3	-28.2
Jun	102.1	-4.3	4.4	-7.5	-1.9	-31.7
May	102.6	-3.1	3.8	-7.1	-2.5	-30.1
Apr	102.0	-3.5	3.5	-8.6	-2.6	-30.4
Mar	102.5	-3.3	4.5	-9.2	-2.6	-28.7
Feb	101.2	-3.5	3.3	-12.7	-3.1	-28.5
Jan	101.0	-3.8	2.4	-11.6	-3.5	-29.8

ESI: Economic Sentiment Index; IND: Industry; SERV: Services; CON: Consumer; RET: Retail Trade; CONS: Construction

Source: European Commission Services

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/index_en.htm

VE Germany. Table VE-DE provides yearly growth rates of the German economy from 1971 to 2013, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked. Germany’s GDP fell 5.6 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.1 percent in 2008. Recovery has been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.1 percent in 2010, 3.6 percent in 2011 and 0.4 percent in 2012. Growth decelerated to 0.1 percent in 2013.

The Federal Statistical Agency of Germany analyzes the fall and recovery of the German economy (http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Content/Statistics/VolkswirtschaftlicheGesamtrechnungen/Inlandsprodukt/Aktuell,templateId=renderPrint.psml):

“The German economy again grew strongly in 2011. The price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.0% compared with the previous year. Accordingly, the catching-up process of the German economy continued during the second year after the economic crisis. In the course of 2011, the price-adjusted GDP again exceeded its pre-crisis level. The economic recovery occurred mainly in the first half of 2011. In 2009, Germany experienced the most serious post-war recession, when GDP suffered a historic decline of 5.1%. The year 2010 was characterised by a rapid economic recovery (+3.7%).”

Table VE-4 provides annual growth rates of the German economy from 1970 to 2013, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked. Germany’s GDP fell 5.6 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.1 percent in 2008. Recovery has been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.1 percent in 2010, 3.6 percent in 2011 and 0.4 percent in 2012. Growth in 2013 was 0.1 percent.

Table VE-DE, Germany, GDP ∆% on Prior Year

	Price Adjusted Chain-Linked	Price- and Calendar-Adjusted Chain Linked
Average ∆% 1991-2013	1.3
Average ∆% 1991-1999	1.5
Average ∆% 2000-2007	1.4
Average ∆% 2003-2007	2.2
Average ∆% 2007-2013	0.5
Average ∆% 2009-2013	2.0
2013	0.1	0.2
2012	0.4	0.6
2011	3.6	3.7
2010	4.1	3.9
2009	-5.6	-5.6
2008	1.1	0.8
2007	3.3	3.4
2006	3.7	3.9
2005	0.7	0.9
2004	1.2	0.7
2003	-0.7	-0.7
2002	0.0	0.0
2001	1.7	1.8
2000	3.0	3.2
1999	2.0	1.9
1998	2.0	1.7
1997	1.8	1.9
1996	0.8	0.8
1995	1.7	1.8
1994	2.5	2.5
1993	-1.0	-1.0
1992	1.9	1.5
1991	5.1	5.2
1990	5.3	5.5
1989	3.9	4.0
1988	3.7	3.4
1987	1.4	1.3
1986	2.3	2.3
1985	2.3	2.3
1984	2.8	2.9
1983	1.6	1.5
1982	-0.4	-0.5
1981	0.5	0.6
1980	1.4	1.3
1979	4.2	4.3
1978	3.0	3.1
1977	3.3	3.5
1976	4.9	4.5
1975	-0.9	-0.9
1974	0.9	1.0
1973	4.8	5.0
1972	4.3	4.3
1971	3.1	3.0
1970	NA	NA

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/NationalAccounts.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/DomesticProduct/CurrentRevision.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Methods/NationalAccountRevision/Revision2014_BackgroundPaper.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/02/PE14_048_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/08/PE13_278_811.html https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/11/PE13_381_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/01/PE14_016_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/DE/PresseService/Presse/Pressekonferenzen/2014/BIP2013/Pressebroschuere_BIP2013.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/05/PE14_167_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/09/PE14_306_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/11/PE14_401_811.html

The Flash Germany Composite Output Index of the Markit Flash Germany PMI^®, combining manufacturing and services, decreased from 51.7 in Nov to 51.4 in Dec. The index of manufacturing output reached 51.4 in Dec, increasing from 50.9 in Nov, while the index of services decreased to 51.4 in Nov from 52.1 in Nov. The overall Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI^® increased from 49.5 in Nov to 51.2 in Dec (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/9bf921c24e49468ebcb1a1c26a9183d5). New orders in manufacturing contracted. Oliver Kolodseike, Economist at Markit, finds continuing weakness in GDP growth (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/9bf921c24e49468ebcb1a1c26a9183d5). The Markit Germany Composite Output Index of the Markit Germany Services PMI^®, combining manufacturing and services with close association with Germany’s GDP, decreased from 53.9 in Oct to 51.7 in Nov (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c40864faad5c4d9ebad95744770e6389). Oliver Kolodseike, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds slow growth with risks of contraction in IVQ2014 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c40864faad5c4d9ebad95744770e6389). The Germany Services Business Activity Index decreased from 54.4 in Oct to 52.1 in Nov (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c40864faad5c4d9ebad95744770e6389). The Markit/BME Germany Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®), showing close association with Germany’s manufacturing conditions, increased from 49.5 in Nov to 51.2 in Dec (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4ef269fb4b7c4e8ba3629311b36b17cb). New export orders increased. Oliver Kolodseike, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds improvement of manufacturing but without definitive signs of whether it is temporary (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4ef269fb4b7c4e8ba3629311b36b17cb).Table DE provides the country data table for Germany.

Table DE, Germany, Economic Indicators

GDP	IIIQ2014 0.1 ∆%; III/Q2014/IIIQ2013 ∆% 1.2 2013/2012: 0.1% GDP ∆% 1970-2013 Blog 8/26/12 5/27/12 11/25/12 2/24/13 5/19/13 5/26/13 8/18/13 8/25/13 11/17/13 11/24/13 1/26/14 2/16/14 3/2/14 5/18/14 5/25/14 8/17/14 9/7/14 11/16/14 11/30/14
Consumer Price Index	Nov month NSA ∆%: 0.0 Nov 12-month NSA ∆%: 0.6 Blog 12/14/14
Producer Price Index	Nov month ∆%: 0.0 NSA, minus 0.0 CSA 12-month NSA ∆%: -0.9 Blog 12/21/14
Industrial Production	MFG Nov month CSA ∆%: 0.2 12-month NSA: -1.4 Blog 1/11/15
Machine Orders	MFG Nov month ∆%: -2.4 Nov 12-month ∆%: -1.4 Blog 1/11/15
Retail Sales	Nov Month ∆% 1.0 12-Month ∆% -0.8 Blog 1/11/15
Employment Report	Unemployment Rate SA Nov 5.0% Blog 1/11/15
Trade Balance	Exports Nov 12-month NSA ∆%: 1.4 Imports Nov 12 months NSA ∆%: 1.7 Exports Nov month CSA ∆%: -2.1; Imports Nov month CSA minus 1.5 Blog 1/11/15

Links to blog comments in Table DE:

12/21/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/patience-on-interest-rate-increases.html

12/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/global-financial-and-economic-risk.html

11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

9/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/competitive-monetary-policy-and.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

1/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/01/capital-flows-exchange-rates-and.html

11/24/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html

8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

There is significantly stronger performance of production in Germany with wide monthly fluctuations. The production industries index of Germany in Table VE-1 shows increase of 0.2 percent in Dec 2012 and decrease of 9.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2012. The index decreased 0.5 percent in Jan 2013 and 1.3 percent in 12 months and increased 0.7 percent in Feb 2013, declining 4.9 percent in 12 months. In Mar 2013, the production index of Germany increased 0.9 percent and fell 8.5 percent in 12 months. The production index jumped 0.9 percent in Apr 2013 and 7.5 percent in 12 months. In May 2013, the production index fell 1.1 percent and 4.4 percent in 12 months. The production index of Germany increased 1.9 percent in Jun 2013 and fell 0.4 percent in 12 months. In Jul 2013, the production industries index fell 1.3 percent and increased 1.9 percent in 12 months. The production industries index increased 2.1 percent in Aug 2013 and fell 2.8 percent in 12 months. In Sep 2013, the production index fell 0.8 percent and increased 4.2 percent in 12 months. In Oct 2013, the production index of Germany fell 0.7 percent and increased 1.3 percent in 12 months. The index of production industries increased 1.8 percent in Nov 2013 and 0.4 percent in 12 months. The index of production industries increased 0.1 percent in Dec 2013 and increased 5.9 percent in 12 months. The production industries index increased 0.4 percent in Jan 2014 and 3.3 percent in 12 months. In Feb 2014, the production industries index increased 0.4 percent and 5.8 percent in 12 months. The production industries index fell 0.5 percent in Mar 2014 and increased 4.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The production industries index of Germany changed 0.0 percent in Apr 2014 and fell 1.6 percent in 12 months. The production index fell 1.4 percent in May 2014, increasing 4.0 percent in 12 months. The production index of Germany increased 0.5 percent in Jun 2014 and fell 2.2 percent in 12 months. In Jul 2014, the production industries index of Germany increased 1.2 percent and 3.0 percent in 12 months. The production index of Germany fell 2.6 percent in Aug 2014 and decreased 4.9 percent in 12 months. The production index of Germany increased 1.0 percent in Sep 2014 and 3.6 percent in 12 months. In Oct 2014, the production index of Germany increased 0.6 percent and 1.2 percent in 12 months. The production industries index of Germany fell 0.1 percent in Nov 2014 and decreased 1.5 percent in 12 months. Germany’s production industries suffered decline of 7.3 percent in Dec 2008 relative to Dec 2007 and decline of 2.3 percent in 2009. Recovery was vigorous with 17.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2010. The first quarter of 2011 was quite strong when the German economy outperformed the other advanced economies. The performance of Germany’s production industries from 2002 to 2006 was vigorous with average rate of 4.5 percent. Data for the production industries index of Germany fluctuate sharply from month to month and in 12-month rates.

Table VE-1, Germany, Production Industries, Month and 12-Month ∆%

	12-Month ∆% NSA	Month ∆% Calendar SA
Nov 2014	-1.5	-0.1
Oct	1.2	0.6
Sep	3.6	1.0
Aug	-4.9	-2.6
Jul	3.0	1.2
Jun	-2.2	0.5
May	4.0	-1.4
Apr	-1.6	0.0
Mar	4.8	-0.5
Feb	5.8	0.4
Jan	3.3	0.4
Dec 2013	5.9	0.1
Nov	0.4	1.8
Oct	1.3	-0.7
Sep	4.2	-0.8
Aug	-2.8	2.1
Jul	1.9	-1.3
Jun	-0.4	1.9
May	-4.4	-1.1
Apr	7.5	0.9
Mar	-8.5	0.9
Feb	-4.9	0.7
Jan	-1.3	-0.5
Dec 2012	-9.4	0.2
Nov	-2.9	-0.7
Oct	4.1	-1.3
Sep	-6.7	-1.2
Aug	-0.6	0.0
Jul	2.4	0.8
Jun	4.2	-0.9
May	-6.3	1.6
Apr	-0.6	-2.1
Mar	-0.1	2.2
Feb	2.4	-0.5
Jan	4.8	0.9
Dec 2011	2.0	-1.8
Nov	3.9	-0.3
Oct	0.1	1.3
Sep	4.5	-1.8
Aug	10.2	-0.5
Jul	5.8	2.9
Jun	-0.8	-1.6
May	18.2	0.8
Apr	5.3	0.2
Mar	9.8	0.5
Feb	15.8	1.2
Jan	15.1	1.2
Dec 2010	17.1
Dec 2009	-2.3
Dec 2008	-7.3
Dec 2007	-0.1
Dec 2006	2.5
Dec 2005	4.9
Dec 2004	5.3
Dec 2003	5.1
Dec 2002	2.0
Dec 2001	-8.8
Dec 2000	0.2
Dec 1999	6.4
Average ∆% per Year
Dec 1995 to Dec 2013	1.5
Dec 1995 to Dec 2000	2.7
Dec 1995 to Dec 2006	2.2
Dec 2002 to Dec 2006	4.5

Source: Statistiche Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Table VE-2 provides monthly percentage changes of the German production industries index by components from Apr to Nov 2014. The index decreased 0.1 percent in Nov 2014 with increase of 0.5 percent in capital goods and decrease of 2.4 percent in energy. There was increase of 0.3 percent in manufacturing and increase of 2.1 percent in intermediate goods. The index increased 0.6 percent in Oct 2014 with increases in all segments except change of 0.0 percent in capital goods. The index decreased 1.0 percent in Sep 2014 with all segments increasing with exception of decreases of 1.7 percent for nondurable goods.

Table VE-2, Germany, Production Industries, Industry and Components, Month ∆%

	Mar 22014	Oct	Sep	Aug	Jul	Jun	May	Apr
Production Industries	-0.1	0.6	1.0	-2.6	1.2	0.5	-1.4	0.0
Industry	0.3	0.5	1.2	-3.2	1.6	0.5	-1.3	0.1
Mfg	0.3	0.5	1.1	-3.1	1.6	0.4	-1.4	0.2
Intermediate Goods	-0.1	0.6	0.0	-1.5	0.7	0.5	-2.3	0.7
Capital Goods	0.5	0.0	3.4	-5.8	3.1	-0.2	0.4	-0.6
Durable Goods	2.1	0.3	0.1	-3.5	-0.2	2.2	-1.1	-2.1
Nondurable Goods	0.3	1.2	-1.7	0.8	-0.1	1.8	-3.8	1.7
Energy	-2.4	0.9	2.6	1.4	-2.0	0.1	0.5	0.1

Seasonally Calendar Adjusted

Source: Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Table VE-3 provides 12-month unadjusted percentage changes of industry and components in Germany. There were percentage declines of 12-month rates in the production index of Germany and all segments in the four months from Dec 2012 to Mar 2013 with exception of nondurables in Jan 2013 and energy in Jan and Mar 2013. There is sharp recovery in Apr 2013 with growth of manufacturing by 7.9 percent and capital goods by 11.1 percent. All segments show declines in 12 months in May 2013. There are increases in the 12 months ending in Jun of 1.2 percent in capital goods and 2.8 percent in durable goods. All segments increased in Jul 2013. All segments fell in Aug 2013 with sharp declines. There is strong recovery in Sep with high rates of increase. Many segments increased in the 12 months ending in Oct 2013 with 1.7 percent growth in manufacturing and 2.0 percent in capital goods. Most segments increased in Nov 2013 with 1.1 percent in manufacturing and 1.9 percent in capital goods. All segments increased in Dec 2013 with exception of energy. Most segments increased in Jan 2014 with exception of declines for durable goods and energy. All segments increased in Feb 2014 with exception of energy. All segments increased in Mar 2014 with exception of energy. All segments decreased in Apr 2014 with exception of intermediate goods and nondurable goods. All segments increased in May 2014 with exception of energy. All segments fell in Jun 2014 with exception of nondurable goods. All segments increased in Jul 2014 with exception of energy and durable goods. All segments declined in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014. All segments increased in the 12 months ending in Sep 2014 with exception of energy. All segments increased in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014 with exception of energy. All segments decreased in Nov 2014. All Percentage declines in 12 months are quite sharp in Dec 2012 with many percentage changes negative around two-digits. Although there are sharp fluctuations in the data, there is suggestion of deceleration that would be expected from much higher earlier rates. The deceleration is quite evident in single-digit percentage changes from Sep 2011 to Dec 2012 relative to high double-digit percentage changes in Jan-Mar 2011. There are multiple negative 12-month percentage changes across many segments. Growth rates in the recovery from the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009 were initially very vigorous in comparison with the growth rates before the contraction that are shown in the bottom part of Table VE-3.

Table VE-3, Germany, Industry and Components, 12-Month ∆% Unadjusted

	IND	MFG	INTG	CG	DG	NDG	EN
2014
Nov	-1.4	-1.4	-1.9	-1.4	-1.3	-0.3	-2.4
Oct	1.5	1.5	-0.2	3.0	0.7	1.5	-1.2
Sep	4.3	4.4	3.1	5.8	1.3	3.9	-2.9
Aug	-4.9	-4.7	-2.5	-8.2	-6.3	-0.6	-5.7
Jul	4.6	4.5	2.0	8.0	-0.3	2.2	-7.1
Jun	-1.8	-1.9	-1.4	-2.4	-6.3	0.6	-5.8
May	4.8	4.7	2.7	7.5	6.6	1.9	-2.4
Apr	-1.1	-0.8	0.9	-3.3	-4.2	1.8	-6.7
Mar	5.3	5.2	5.0	5.8	4.9	4.8	-9.3
Feb	5.9	5.9	6.5	5.9	4.4	4.7	-5.2
Jan	3.4	3.3	2.4	5.5	-1.4	1.3	-2.4
2013
Dec	6.2	6.1	7.1	6.4	5.2	4.2	-0.1
Nov	1.1	1.1	0.6	1.9	-0.4	0.5	-1.6
Oct	1.8	1.7	2.3	2.0	-0.4	0.0	-0.3
Sep	4.7	4.6	4.0	5.8	6.1	2.5	0.8
Aug	-2.9	-3.0	-4.0	-1.8	-7.5	-2.4	-3.1
Jul	1.6	1.6	2.1	0.5	4.1	3.5	0.7
Jun	-0.1	0.0	-1.6	1.2	2.8	-1.1	-1.6
May	-4.5	-4.4	-3.6	-5.9	-10.2	-0.9	-4.6
Apr	8.1	7.9	4.3	11.1	9.3	8.9	0.4
Mar	-8.4	-8.3	-7.3	-9.6	-9.0	-7.0	2.4
Feb	-5.1	-5.2	-5.7	-5.4	-6.1	-2.3	-8.9
Jan	-1.2	-1.1	-1.3	-2.7	-2.8	3.8	0.1
2012
Dec	-9.6	-9.4	-11.8	-8.5	-12.5	-7.0	-2.4
Nov	-3.1	-3.1	-3.9	-2.7	-7.6	-1.2	0.7
Oct	3.9	3.8	2.8	4.0	0.7	7.0	3.2
Sep	-7.6	-7.5	-8.8	-7.1	-11.2	-5.2	4.0
Aug	-1.1	-1.0	-3.2	0.3	0.4	0.7	4.5
Jul	2.0	2.0	0.3	4.6	-2.4	-0.7	2.2
Jun	3.8	3.7	1.9	6.5	7.2	0.3	6.7
May	-7.0	-6.8	-7.5	-6.1	-10.6	-7.7	4.0
Apr	-1.1	-1.1	-2.0	1.9	-5.3	-5.9	3.7
Mar	-0.5	-0.4	-3.1	2.8	-6.2	-2.3	-0.8
Feb	3.2	3.3	0.9	7.3	-0.1	-2.3	5.9
Jan	5.6	5.6	3.0	10.4	4.7	0.1	-3.3
2011
Dec	1.5	1.4	1.8	1.3	0.2	1.4	-9.2
Nov	4.6	4.5	2.9	8.1	2.3	-1.0	-5.8
Oct	0.6	0.7	-0.3	3.2	-2.3	-3.4	-6.1
Sep	5.7	5.7	4.6	9.2	3.4	-0.8	-6.1
Aug	12.4	12.2	9.3	20.4	4.8	1.4	-3.0
Jul	7.9	7.8	5.0	13.7	6.8	0.1	-5.7
Jun	0.5	0.5	0.2	2.3	-10.2	-2.1	-4.7
May	21.5	21.2	17.9	28.3	20.8	12.8	-7.3
Apr	7.5	7.5	6.1	11.1	4.6	1.6	-5.5
Mar	11.2	11.2	10.8	15.0	8.6	2.0	2.8
Feb	17.3	17.1	16.3	23.1	10.1	6.3	-0.4
Jan	17.2	16.9	17.5	23.1	9.9	3.6	-2.6
2010
Dec	17.6	17.6	14.8	25.9	8.5	1.7	2.6
Nov	13.9	13.9	12.9	19.2	7.7	3.9	3.5
Oct	9.9	9.9	9.7	14.0	6.3	0.8	2.5
Sep	9.8	9.5	12.2	10.1	8.3	2.6	2.1
Aug	16.9	17.0	19.3	19.9	18.3	6.9	1.3
Jul	9.0	8.9	13.2	8.7	7.4	0.8	1.9
Jun	16.4	16.2	20.8	16.1	19.7	5.1	-2.8
May	13.1	13.3	20.0	12.0	11.2	1.4	11.1
Apr	14.9	14.9	21.7	15.5	8.8	0.2	9.4
Mar	14.3	14.5	20.4	12.3	11.8	5.8	4.2
Feb	6.8	7.4	10.6	6.5	7.9	-1.0	3.7
Jan	0.4	0.9	6.3	-3.8	0.8	-3.0	0.8
Dec 2010	17.6	17.6	14.8	25.9	8.5	1.7	2.6
Dec 2009	-3.2	-3.1	3.3	-9.9	-0.1	1.1	3.7
Dec 2008	-7.6	-7.4	-14.3	-5.4	-11.2	3.7	-9.0
Dec 2007	0.0	-0.3	-0.6	2.5	-10.0	-2.7	1.6
Dec 2006	3.2	3.1	5.2	2.3	8.6	-0.9	-5.3
Dec 2005	5.8	5.9	3.5	9.0	3.2	2.1	0.6
Dec 2004	5.3	5.5	7.7	3.4	0.8	5.7	9.6
Dec 2003	5.5	5.3	5.5	6.4	1.7	4.4	0.3
Dec 2002	3.7	3.3	5.4	3.4	-5.9	2.3	-2.6

Note: IND: Industry; MFG: Manufacturing; INTG: Intermediate Goods; CG: Capital Goods; DG: Durable Goods; NDG: Nondurable Goods; EN: Energy

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Broader perspective since 2005 is provided by Chart VE-1 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland, Federal Statistical Agency of Germany. The index of production industries not seasonally adjusted rises by more than one third between 2003 and 2008 with sharp fluctuations and then collapses during the global recession in 2008. Recovery has been in a steep upward trajectory that has recovered at the more recent peaks the losses during the contraction. Recovery stalled recently with increase at the margin.

Chart VE-1, Germany, Production Industries, Not Adjusted, 2010=100

Source: Statistiche Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

More detail is provided by Chart VE-2 of the Statistiche Bundesamt Deutschland, or Federal Statistical Agency of Germany, with the unadjusted production industries index and trend from 2010 to 2014. There could be some flattening in recent months probably leading into stagnation, mild downturn and recent recovery as depicted by trend. There is weakness in the current segment with stability/decline followed with increase/stability.

Chart VE-2, Germany, Production Industries, Not Adjusted, 2010=100

Source: Statistiche Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Table VE-4 provides month and 12-month rates of growth of manufacturing in Germany from Dec 2010 to Nov 2014. There are fluctuations in both monthly rates and in the past 12 months. In Jan 2013, manufacturing fell 1.1 percent and decreased 1.1 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing increased 1.0 percent in Feb 2013, declining 5.2 percent in 12 months. In Mar 2013, manufacturing increased 0.9 percent but fell 8.3 percent in 12 months. There is strong recovery in Apr 2013 with growth of 0.5 percent and 7.9 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 0.9 percent in May 2013 and declined 4.4 percent in 12 months. Recovery is strong in Jun 2013 with growth of 1.9 percent in the month but change of 0.0 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 1.8 percent in Jul 2013 and increased 1.6 percent in 12 months. In Aug 2013, manufacturing increased 2.7 percent and fell 3.0 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 1.1 percent in Sep 2013 and increased 4.6 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing increased 2.3 percent in Nov 2013 and 1.1 percent in 12 months. In Dec 2013, manufacturing increased 0.1 percent and increased 6.1 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing changed 0.0 percent in Jan 2014, increasing 3.3 percent in 12 months. In Feb 2014, manufacturing increased 0.5 percent and 5.9 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 0.4 percent in Mar 2014 and increased 5.2 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing increased 0.2 percent in Apr 2014 and fell 0.8 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 1.4 percent in May, increasing 4.7 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing increased 0.4 percent in Jun 2014 and fell 1.9 percent in 12 months. In Jul 2014, manufacturing jumped 1.6 percent and increased 4.5 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 3.1 percent in Aug 2014 and declined 4.7 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing increased 1.1 percent in Sep 2014 and 4.4 percent in 12 months. In Oct 2014, manufacturing increased 0.5 percent and 1.5 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing grew 0.3 percent in Nov 2014 and fell 1.4 percent in 12 months.

Table VE-4, Germany, Manufacturing Month and 12-Month ∆%

	12-Month ∆% NSA	Month ∆% SA and Calendar Adjusted
Nov 2014	-1.4	0.3
Oct	1.5	0.5
Sep	4.4	1.1
Aug	-4.7	-3.1
Jul	4.5	1.6
Jun	-1.9	0.4
May	4.7	-1.4
Apr	-0.8	0.2
Mar	5.2	-0.4
Feb	5.9	0.5
Jan	3.3	0.0
Dec 2013	6.1	0.1
Nov	1.1	2.3
Oct	1.7	-0.6
Sep	4.6	-1.1
Aug	-3.0	2.7
Jul	1.6	-1.8
Jun	0.0	1.9
May	-4.4	-0.9
Apr	7.9	0.5
Mar	-8.3	0.9
Feb	-5.2	1.0
Jan	-1.1	-1.1
Dec 2012	-9.4	1.0
Nov	-3.1	-0.6
Oct	3.8	-1.4
Sep	-7.5	-1.6
Aug	-1.0	0.1
Jul	2.0	1.2
Jun	3.7	-1.3
May	-6.8	2.1
Apr	-1.1	-1.9
Mar	-0.4	1.0
Feb	3.3	0.2
Jan	5.6	0.7
Dec 2011	1.4	-1.6
Nov	4.5	-0.7
Oct	0.7	1.1
Sep	5.7	-1.9
Aug	12.2	-0.5
Jul	7.8	3.2
Jun	0.5	-1.7
May	21.2	1.1
Apr	7.5	0.6
Mar	11.2	0.6
Feb	17.1	1.4
Jan	16.9	0.0
Dec 2010	17.6	1.3

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-3 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland, or Federal Statistical Office of Germany, provides the manufacturing index of Germany from 2010 to 2014. Manufacturing was already flattening in 2007 and fell sharply in 2008 to the beginning of 2010. Manufacturing grew sharply in the initial phase of recovery but has flattened in recent months as revealed by the trend that may be flattening.

Chart VE-3, Germany, Production Index, Manufacturing, Not Adjusted Index and Trend, 2010=100

Source: Statistiche Bundesamt Deutschland https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Table VE-5 provides month and 12-month rates of growth of new orders of manufacturing in Germany from Jan 2010 to Nov 2014. There are fluctuations in both monthly rates and in the past 12 months. Table VE-5 reveals strong fluctuations in an evident deceleration of total orders for industry of Germany with recent oscillating improvement. Total orders for manufacturing decreased 2.4 percent in Nov 2014 and decreased 1.4 percent in 12 months. There is the same behavior for total, foreign and domestic orders with decline in 12-month rates from two-digit levels to single digits and negative changes. An important aspect of Germany is that the bulk of orders is domestic or from other European countries while foreign orders have been growing rapidly. There is weakening world trade affecting export economies. As in other countries, data on orders for manufacturing are highly volatile. Most 12-month percentage changes from Jan 2012 to Sep 2012 in Table VE-5 are negative largely because of the unusual strength of the Germany economy in the beginning of 2011 but more recently because of slowing world economy in 2012-2014.

Table VE-5, Germany, Volume of Orders Received in Manufacturing, Total, Domestic and Foreign, ∆%  

	Total 12 M	Total M	Foreign 12 M	Foreign M	Home 12 M	Home M
2014
Nov	-1.4	-2.4	1.2	-0.7	-4.7	-4.7
Oct	2.6	2.9	2.2	0.6	3.1	5.9
Sep	2.1	1.1	4.1	4.0	-0.4	-2.6
Aug	-2.1	-4.2	-0.1	-6.5	-4.5	-1.0
Jul	5.9	4.8	9.3	7.7	1.5	1.1
Jun	-4.0	-2.4	-5.0	-3.2	-2.4	-1.4
May	7.7	-1.1	7.6	-0.4	7.8	-2.0
Apr	3.7	2.6	4.6	4.1	2.5	0.8
Mar	3.2	-2.3	2.5	-3.8	4.2	-0.3
Feb	7.6	0.7	9.3	0.5	5.6	1.1
Jan	5.8	-0.1	8.2	-1.7	2.9	2.2
2013
Dec	8.4	0.3	10.7	2.2	5.0	-2.4
Nov	4.5	0.6	6.0	-0.5	2.5	2.2
Oct	3.7	-0.5	4.1	0.0	3.1	-1.1
Sep	11.2	2.7	13.7	5.1	8.0	-0.4
Aug	0.0	0.6	-0.9	-0.4	1.0	1.8
Jul	5.1	-2.9	5.5	-4.7	4.8	-0.3
Jun	4.8	5.1	7.9	6.1	0.7	3.9
May	-3.6	-0.3	-1.6	0.6	-6.2	-1.5
Apr	5.9	-2.4	7.6	-2.0	3.6	-2.8
Mar	-5.6	2.4	-4.4	2.9	-7.2	1.8
Feb	-2.7	1.6	-1.5	1.9	-4.2	1.1
Jan	0.3	-1.2	1.9	-2.6	-1.7	0.9
2012
Dec	-9.1	1.7	-6.7	2.5	-12.6	0.6
Nov	-0.9	-3.1	2.4	-4.9	-5.1	-0.6
Oct	4.5	4.1	7.0	7.0	1.3	0.3
Sep	-8.9	-2.2	-6.6	-3.7	-11.7	-0.4
Aug	-4.4	-0.5	-2.1	0.4	-7.1	-1.6
Jul	-1.6	0.4	0.6	0.6	-4.2	0.2
Jun	-4.5	-1.9	-6.4	-1.9	-1.7	-2.0
May	-11.0	1.1	-3.7	2.4	-18.8	-0.6
Apr	-3.9	-2.1	-4.4	-3.2	-3.1	-0.5
Mar	-2.2	2.7	-1.2	3.7	-3.3	1.4
Feb	-4.3	0.5	-4.7	1.7	-3.8	-0.9
Jan	-2.6	-2.3	-4.6	-3.8	-0.2	-0.4
2011
Dec	0.0	2.7	-0.3	4.9	0.5	0.0
Nov	-4.8	-3.3	-8.2	-5.4	-0.3	-0.7
Oct	0.1	1.8	2.1	3.5	-2.1	-0.2
Sep	2.2	-3.6	1.9	-4.7	2.6	-2.2
Aug	7.1	-0.6	5.2	0.6	9.4	-2.0
Jul	4.9	-2.3	4.6	-6.2	5.4	2.9
Jun	3.5	-0.3	7.8	9.2	-2.0	-10.6
May	23.1	2.8	16.0	-3.8	31.8	11.3
Apr	6.7	1.7	9.6	2.1	3.0	1.1
Mar	9.8	-2.9	12.3	-2.9	6.9	-3.0
Feb	21.5	0.8	24.1	0.4	18.4	1.6
Jan	22.5	3.8	26.1	3.6	18.2	4.0
2010
Dec	21.8	-2.6	26.8	-3.7	15.4	-1.1
Nov	21.4	5.2	27.1	8.5	15.0	1.2
Oct	14.2	0.6	18.2	0.3	10.0	0.9
Sep	13.9	-1.4	15.6	-3.6	11.9	1.6
Aug	22.2	2.6	29.7	4.7	14.5	0.0
Jul	14.1	-1.0	21.4	-1.0	6.4	-0.9
Jun	27.6	2.7	30.6	3.5	24.2	1.8
May	24.8	0.1	29.6	0.9	19.4	-0.9
Apr	29.9	2.9	34.0	3.0	25.7	3.0
Mar	29.4	5.0	32.9	5.1	25.8	4.9
Feb	24.0	0.0	28.7	0.6	18.6	-0.7
Jan	17.0	3.8	23.8	4.3	9.8	3.1
Dec 2009	9.1	-1.7	10.5	-2.6	7.3	-0.5
Dec 2008	-28.3	-6.7	-31.5	-9.5	-23.7	-2.9
Dec 2007	7.1	-0.9	9.1	-2.0	4.4	0.2
Dec 2006	2.8	0.8	3.4	0.5	2.2	1.1
Dec 2005	5.0	-0.5	10.4	-1.1	-1.4	0.3
Dec 2004	12.7	6.5	13.0	8.5	12.7	4.9
Dec 2003	10.7	2.4	16.4	5.4	5.1	-0.8
Dec 2002	-0.2	-3.4	-0.8	-6.6	0.2	-0.3
Average ∆% 2003-2007	7.6		10.4		4.5
Average ∆% 2003-2012	2.3		3.9		0.3

Notes: AE: Annual Equivalent; M: Month; M: Calendar and seasonally adjusted; 12 M: Non-adjusted Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Orders for capital goods of Germany are shown in Table VE-6. Total capital goods orders decreased 3.1 percent in Nov 2014 and decreased 1.0 percent in 12 months. Domestic orders decreased 7.2 percent in Nov and foreign orders decreased 4.4 percent. There has been deceleration from 2010 and early 2011 with growth rates falling from two digit levels to single digits, and multiple negative changes with recent improvement. An important aspect of Germany’s economy shown in Tables VE-5 and VE-6 is the success in increasing the competitiveness of its economic activities as shown by rapid growth of orders for industry after the recession of 2001 in the period before the global recession beginning in late 2007. Germany adopted fiscal and labor market reforms to increase productivity.

Table VE-6, Germany, Volume of Orders Received of Capital Goods Industries, Total, Foreign and Domestic, ∆%

	Total 12 M	Total M	Foreign 12 M	Foreign M	Domestic 12 M	Domestic M
2014
Nov	-1.0	-3.1	0.9	-0.7	-4.4	-7.2
Oct	4.9	3.4	3.4	-0.1	7.6	9.8
Sep	1.1	1.5	2.4	4.2	-1.2	-3.1
Aug	-2.4	-6.6	-0.3	-9.6	-5.7	-1.0
Jul	8.8	9.2	12.6	12.7	2.3	3.3
Jun	-7.6	-5.1	-9.0	-6.4	-4.7	-3.0
May	10.1	-0.2	10.0	1.2	10.5	-2.4
Apr	5.4	3.7	6.4	5.7	3.6	0.4
Mar	3.2	-2.9	1.2	-5.0	6.5	0.7
Feb	7.4	0.5	9.0	0.1	4.7	1.4
Jan	7.0	-1.3	9.4	-4.0	3.2	3.9
2013
Dec	10.7	1.6	14.8	5.4	3.2	-5.2
Nov	6.8	1.9	7.4	1.0	5.3	3.6
Oct	2.7	-3.0	2.1	-3.3	3.3	-2.5
Sep	14.6	3.7	17.1	6.9	10.3	-1.5
Aug	3.1	1.0	1.5	-0.7	5.7	3.8
Jul	6.3	-5.3	7.3	-7.4	5.0	-1.4
Jun	9.1	9.2	13.5	10.1	1.8	7.5
May	-3.1	-0.4	-0.4	1.4	-7.8	-3.3
Apr	6.0	-2.8	7.3	-3.3	3.7	-2.0
Mar	-5.9	1.5	-4.4	2.6	-8.2	-0.3
Feb	0.1	2.8	2.7	2.8	-4.0	2.6
Jan	3.1	-1.3	5.8	-2.2	-1.4	0.2
2012
Dec	-7.7	2.8	-4.6	3.1	-13.3	2.2
Nov	-0.7	-4.7	3.1	-6.4	-6.5	-1.4
Oct	4.6	5.6	6.3	8.5	2.1	0.8
Sep	-7.5	-1.6	-4.8	-2.9	-11.6	0.5
Aug	-4.6	-1.5	-2.6	-0.4	-7.4	-3.5
Jul	-0.3	0.7	1.2	1.1	-2.7	-0.1
Jun	-7.1	-1.9	-9.9	-2.1	-1.9	-1.3
May	-12.0	1.0	-2.8	1.9	-23.9	-0.4
Apr	-3.3	-3.4	-4.2	-4.6	-1.7	-1.6
Mar	2.2	5.3	3.3	7.8	0.2	1.2
Feb	-5.9	1.7	-7.0	2.2	-4.2	0.9
Jan	-3.7	-4.1	-6.5	-5.0	1.0	-2.8
2011
Dec	1.2	3.0	-0.1	4.2	3.5	1.1
Nov	-6.5	-4.6	-10.5	-7.8	0.7	1.0
Oct	3.1	3.9	6.2	6.7	-2.0	-0.7
Sep	2.9	-4.2	2.2	-5.8	4.0	-1.5
Aug	6.7	0.0	4.5	1.3	10.6	-2.0
Jul	7.2	-6.2	6.4	-10.1	8.8	0.9
Jun	9.1	1.4	13.3	14.3	2.0	-15.8
May	27.5	4.8	17.7	-4.7	43.5	20.9
Apr	11.0	3.7	14.1	4.8	6.3	2.1
Mar	12.0	-5.9	14.4	-5.4	8.5	-6.7
Feb	29.3	2.7	32.5	1.4	24.8	4.8
Jan	26.8	3.6	32.8	3.9	17.7	3.0
2010
Dec	27.4	-5.2	31.2	-7.1	21.1	-1.6
Nov	30.4	8.9	37.0	13.0	20.1	2.0
Oct	20.5	0.4	24.9	-0.3	14.3	1.7
Sep	18.2	-2.7	20.3	-5.4	14.7	2.0
Aug	27.5	5.6	40.0	7.8	11.5	1.9
Jul	14.1	-2.4	28.1	-2.3	-2.5	-2.2
Jun	32.0	3.7	38.7	5.2	22.1	1.0
May	26.2	1.9	36.6	2.0	12.8	1.8
Apr	31.0	3.0	41.4	3.6	18.1	2.0
Mar	25.8	6.4	33.8	7.4	15.7	4.8
Feb	21.2	-0.9	31.3	0.4	8.3	-2.9
Jan	17.0	4.1	29.6	2.4	2.8	7.1
Dec 2009	8.1	-1.2	13.6	-1.5	0.3	-1.0
Dec 2008	-32.2	-7.2	-36.8	-10.0	-24.5	-3.6
Dec 2007	9.4	-0.6	11.6	-2.3	6.1	2.2
Dec 2006	3.5	2.2	3.9	2.9	2.9	1.2
Dec 2005	1.8	-2.1	9.7	-2.5	-8.4	-1.6
Dec 2004	19.5	11.2	18.6	12.2	20.6	9.7
Dec 2003	11.7	2.1	17.2	5.0	5.4	-1.6
Dec 2002	-2.8	-4.3	-3.7	-8.1	-1.8	0.2
Average ∆% 2003-2007	9.0		12.1		4.9
Average ∆% 2003-2012	3.0		4.7		0.5

Notes: AE: Annual Equivalent; M: Month; M: Calendar and seasonally-adjusted; 12 M: Non-adjusted

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-4 of the German Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland shows the sharp upward trend of total orders in manufacturing before the global recession. There is also an obvious upward trend in the recovery from the recession with Germany’s economy being among the most dynamic in the advanced economies until the slowdown beginning in the final months of 2011 and what could be stationary series from late 2011 into 2012 but risk of decline/stability in the final segment.

Chart VE-4, Germany, Volume of Total Orders in Manufacturing, Non-Adjusted, 2010=100

Source:  Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-5 shows non-adjusted total orders in manufacturing and trend. There was sharp recovery from the global recession with subsequent decline. Trend reversed upwardly and could be flattening/declining.

Chart VE-5, Germany, Volume of Total Orders in Manufacturing and Trend, Non-Adjusted, 2010=100

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Germany’s labor market continues to show strength not found in most of the advanced economies, as shown in Table VE-7. The number unemployed, not seasonally adjusted, increased from 2.08 million in Nov 2013 to 2.10 million in Nov 2014, or 1.0 percent, while the unemployment rate did not change from 5.0 percent in Nov 2013 to 5.0 percent in Nov 2014. The number of persons in employment, not seasonally adjusted, increased from 39.84 million in Nov 2013 to 40.06 million in Nov 2014, or 0.6 percent, while the employment rate increased from 64.8 percent in Nov 2013 to 65.3 percent in Nov 2014. The number unemployed, seasonally adjusted, decreased from 2.12 million in Oct 2014 to 2.11 million in Nov 2014, while the unemployment rate did not change from 5.0 percent in Oct 2014 relative to 5.0 percent in Nov 2014. The number of persons in employment, seasonally adjusted, increased from 39.87 million in Oct 2014 to 39.90 million in Nov 2014, or change of 0.1 percent. The employment rate seasonally adjusted increased from 65.0 in Oct 2014 to 65.1 in Nov 2014.

Table VE-7, Germany, Unemployment Labor Force Survey

	Nov 2014	Oct 2014	Nov 2013
NSA
Number Unemployed Millions	2.10 ∆% Nov 2014 /Oct2014: 4.5 ∆% Nov 2014/Nov 2013: 1.0	2.01	2.08
% Rate Unemployed	5.0	4.8	5.0
Persons in Employment Millions	40.06 ∆% Nov 2014/Oct 2014: 0.0 ∆% Nov 2014/Nov 2013: 0.6	40.08	39.84
Employment Rate	65.3	65.3	64.8
SA
Number Unemployed Millions	2.11 ∆% Nov 2014/Oct  2014: -0.5 ∆% Nov 2014/Nov 2013: –0.9	2.12	2.13
% Rate Unemployed	5.0	5.0	5.1
Persons in Employment Millions	39.90 ∆% Nov 2014/Oct 2014: 0.1 ∆% Nov 2014/Nov 2013: 1.0	39.87	39.52
Employment Rate	65.1	65.0	64.3

NSA: not seasonally adjusted; SA: seasonally adjusted

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/01/PE15_003_132.html

The unemployment rate in Germany as percent of the labor force in Table VE-8 stood at 6.5 percent in Sep, Oct and Nov 2012, increasing to 6.7 percent in Dec 2012, 7.4 percent in Jan 2013, 7.3 in Mar 2013 and 7.1 percent in Apr 2013. The unemployment rate fell to 6.8 percent in May 2013 and 6.6 percent in Jun 2013 and rose to 6.8 percent in Jul-Aug 2013. The rate fell to 6.6 percent in Sep 2013 and 6.5 percent in Oct 2013 and Nov 2013. The unemployment rate increased to 6.7 percent in Dec 2013 and 7.3 percent in Jan 2013. The unemployment rate reached 7.3 percent in Feb 2014 and 7.1 percent in Mar 2014. The unemployment rate fell to 6.8 percent in Apr 2014 and 6.6 percent in May 2014. The unemployment rate fell to 6.5 percent in Jun 2014, increasing to 6.6 percent in Jun 2014 and 6.7 percent in Aug 2014. The unemployment rate fell to 6.5 percent in Sep 2014 and 6.3 percent in Oct 2014 and Nov 2014. The unemployment rate increase to 6.4 percent in Dec 2014. The rate is much lower than 11.1 percent in 2005 and 9.6 percent in 2006.

Table VE-8, Germany, Unemployment Rate in Percent of Labor Force

Dec 2014	6.4
Nov	6.3
Oct	6.3
Sep	6.5
Aug	6.7
Jul	6.6
Jun	6.5
May	6.6
Apr	6.8
Mar	7.1
Feb	7.3
Jan	7.3
Dec 2013	6.7
Nov	6.5
Oct	6.5
Sep	6.6
Aug	6.8
Jul	6.8
Jun	6.6
May	6.8
Apr	7.1
Mar	7.3
Feb	7.4
Jan	7.4
Dec 2012	6.7
Nov	6.5
Oct	6.5
Sep	6.5
Aug	6.8
Jul	6.8
Jun	6.6
May	6.7
Apr	7.0
Mar	7.2
Feb	7.4
Jan	7.3
Dec 2011	6.6
Nov	6.4
Oct	6.5
Sep	6.6
Aug	7.0
Jul	7.0
Jun	6.9
May	7.0
Apr	7.3
Mar	7.6
Feb	7.9
Jan	7.9
Dec 2010	7.1
Dec 2009	7.8
Dec 2008	7.4
Dec 2007	8.1
Dec 2006	9.6
Dec 2005	11.1

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-6 of Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland, or Federal Statistical Office of Germany, shows the long-term decline of the rate of unemployment in Germany from more than 12 percent in early 2005 to 6.6 percent in Dec 2011, increasing to 6.7 percent in Dec 2012, 6.8 percent in Apr 2013 and 6.6 percent in May 2013. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 6.8 percent in Aug 2013, falling to 6.6 percent in Sep 2013 and 6.5 percent in Oct 2013. The rate remained at 6.5 percent in Nov 2013, increasing to 6.7 percent in Dec 2013 and 7.3 in Jan 2014. The rate remained at 7.3 percent in Feb 2014, declining to 7.1 percent in Mar 2014. The rate fell to 6.8 percent in Apr 2014, 6.6 percent in May 2014 and 6.5 percent in Jun 2014. The rate increased to 6.6 percent in Jul 2014 and 6.7 percent in Aug 2014, falling to 6.5 percent in Sep 2014. The rate fell to 6.3 percent in Oct 2014 and 6.3 percent in Nov 2014, increasing to 6.4 percent in Dec 2014.

Chart VE-6, Germany, Unemployment Rate, Unadjusted, Percent

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Retail sales in Germany adjusted for inflation are provided in Table VE-9. There have been sharp fluctuations in monthly and 12-month percentage changes. In Nov 2014, retail sales increased 1.0 percent and decreased 0.8 percent in 12 months. Retail sales increased 2.0 percent in Oct 2014 and decreased 0.8 percent in 12 months.

Table VE-9, Retail Sales in Germany Adjusted for Inflation

	12-Month ∆% NSA	Month ∆% SA and Calendar Adjusted
Nov 2014	-0.8	1.0
Oct	2.1	2.0
Sep	2.7	-1.9
Aug	-1.0	0.6
Jul	1.2	-0.7
Jun	0.1	1.1
May	2.3	-0.2
Apr	3.7	-0.6
Mar	-0.7	-0.6
Feb	2.4	1.2
Jan	0.9	1.3
Dec 2013	0.3	-1.0
Nov	1.6	1.2
Oct	-0.2	-0.6
Sep	0.2	0.2
Aug	0.4	-0.2
Jul	3.3	0.6
Jun	-2.9	-1.4
May	0.3	0.8
Apr	2.5	0.3
Mar	-2.9	-0.1
Feb	-3.3	-0.2
Jan	2.2	1.4
Dec 2012	-3.1	-0.7
Nov	0.5	0.0
Oct	1.5	-0.5
Sep	-3.1	0.3
Aug	0.0	-0.3
Jul	-1.0	-0.8
Jun	4.6	1.0
May	-0.7	-0.3
Apr	-4.7	-0.6
Mar	4.2	0.9
Feb	2.5	1.7
Jan	2.0	-2.8
Dec 2011	0.8	1.7
Nov	0.9	-1.4
Oct	-0.4	0.5
Sep	1.2	0.3
Aug	3.4	-1.3
Jul	-2.4	1.4
Jun	-2.0	2.5
May	4.5	-2.8
Apr	4.8	1.4
Mar	-2.9	-2.5
Feb	3.0	2.2
Jan	3.3	-0.3
Dec 2010	-0.2	0.8
Dec 2009	-2.2
Dec 2008	3.4
Dec 2007	-6.2
Dec 2006	1.3

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-7 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland, Federal Statistical Office of Germany, shows retail sales at constant prices from 2010 to 2014. There appear to be fluctuations without trend.

Chart VE-7, Germany, Turnover in Retail Trade at Constant Prices 2010=100

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis), Federal Statistical Office of Germany

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-8 of the Federal Statistical Office of Germany provides retail sales at current prices. The final segment suggests a trend of increase.

Chart VE-8, Germany, Turnover in Retail Sales at Current Prices, Original Values, 2010=100

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis), Federal Statistical Office of Germany

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Twelve-month rates of growth Germany’s exports and imports are shown in Table VE-7. There was sharp decline in the rates in Jun and Jul 2011 to single-digit levels especially for exports. Exports increased 1.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2014 while imports increased 1.7 percent. In the 12 months ending in Aug 2011, exports rose 14.6 percent and imports 13.2 percent. In Sep 2011, exports grew 10.4 percent relative to a year earlier and imports grew 11.7 percent. Growth rates in 12 months ending in Oct 2011 fell significantly to 3.5 percent for exports and 9.2 percent for imports. Lower prices may explain part of the decline in nominal values. Exports fell 3.8 percent in 12 months ending in Sep 2012, rebounding to growth of 10.5 percent in Oct 2012 and minus 0.5 percent in Nov 2012 but sharp decline of 7.3 percent in Dec 2012 followed by rebound of 2.8 percent in Jan 2013. Exports fell 3.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2013 and declined 4.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2013. In Apr 2013, exports increased 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Exports fell 4.9 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2013. Exports fell 5.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2013 and imports fell 2.3 percent. In the 12 months ending in Sep 2013, exports increased 3.3 percent and imports fell 0.2 percent. Exports increased 0.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2013 while imports fell 1.5 percent. Exports increased 0.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2013 and imports fell 0.2 percent. Exports increased 4.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013 while imports increased 2.5 percent. Exports increased 2.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2014 while imports increased 0.8 percent. Exports increased 4.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2014 and imports increased 5.9 percent. Exports increased 1.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2014 and imports 4.7 percent. Exports fell 0.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014 while imports increased 0.6 percent. In May 2014, exports increased 4.5 percent in 12 months. Exports increased 1.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2014 and 8.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2014. Exports fell 0.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014. Exports increased 8.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2014 and increased 5.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014. Exports increased 1.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2014. Imports decreased 4.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2012, rebounding to growth of 5.7 percent in Oct 2012, decreasing 1.5 percent in Nov 2012 and 7.8 percent in Dec 2012 and rebounding 3.5 percent in Jan 2013. Imports fell 5.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2013 and declined 6.9 percent in Mar 2013 relative to a year earlier. In Apr 2013, imports increased 4.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In May 2013, imports fell 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Imports fell 1.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2013. In Jul 2013, imports increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Imports fell 2.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2013. In the 12 months ending in Sep 2013, imports declined 0.2 percent. Imports fell 1.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2013. Imports fell 0.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2013 and increased 2.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013. Imports increased 0.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2014 and 5.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2014. Imports increased 4.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2014 and 0.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014. Imports fell 0.5 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2014 and increased 2.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2014. Imports increased 0.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2014 and fell 2.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014. Imports increased 8.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2014 and increased 0.7 percent in Oct 2014 relative to a year earlier. Imports increased 1.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2014. Growth was much stronger in the recovery during 2010 and 2011 from the fall from 2007 to 2009. Germany’s trade grew at high rates in 2006 and 2005.

Table VE-10, Germany, Exports and Imports NSA Euro Billions and 12-Month ∆%

	Exports EURO Billions	12- Month ∆%	Imports EURO Billions	12-Month ∆%
Nov 2014	95.8	1.4	78.0	1.7
Oct	103.9	5.0	81.8	0.7
Sep	102.5	8.6	80.4	8.2
Aug	84.1	-0.9	70.0	-2.4
Jul	101.1	8.7	77.6	0.9
Jun	93.5	1.4	76.9	2.1
May	92.1	4.5	74.3	-0.5
Apr	93.7	-0.2	76.5	0.6
Mar	96.0	1.7	79.4	4.7
Feb	92.4	4.6	76.2	5.9
Jan	90.7	2.5	75.7	0.8
Dec 2013	81.9	4.3	68.3	2.5
Nov	94.5	0.8	76.7	-0.2
Oct	99.0	0.6	81.2	-1.5
Sep	94.4	3.3	74.4	-0.2
Aug	84.8	-5.9	71.7	-2.3
Jul	93.0	-0.4	76.9	1.0
Jun	92.2	-2.2	75.4	-1.2
May	88.2	-4.9	74.7	-3.0
Apr	93.9	7.6	76.1	4.4
Mar	94.3	-4.4	75.8	-6.9
Feb	88.3	-3.2	71.9	-5.2
Jan	88.5	2.8	75.1	3.5
Dec 2012	78.6	-7.3	66.6	-7.8
Nov	93.7	-0.5	76.8	-1.5
Oct	98.4	10.5	82.5	5.7
Sep	91.4	-3.8	74.5	-4.1
Aug	90.2	5.7	73.4	-0.1
Jul	93.3	9.1	76.2	1.5
Jun	94.3	7.0	76.3	1.4
May	92.7	0.3	77.0	-0.7
Apr	87.2	3.2	72.9	-1.1
Mar	98.7	0.1	81.5	2.1
Feb	91.2	7.9	75.8	4.6
Jan	86.1	8.6	72.6	4.6
Dec 2011	84.8	4.7	72.3	5.6
Nov	94.1	7.4	78.0	5.8
Oct	89.1	3.5	78.1	9.2
Sep	95.0	10.4	77.7	11.7
Aug	85.3	14.6	73.5	13.2
Jul	85.6	5.2	75.0	9.7
Jun	88.1	3.3	75.2	5.6
May	92.4	21.2	77.5	17.4
Apr	84.5	12.4	73.7	18.5
Mar	98.7	15.3	79.8	15.1
Feb	84.5	20.8	72.5	27.6
Jan	79.3	25.2	69.4	26.0
Dec 2010	81.0	20.0	68.4	24.4
Nov	87.6	21.2	73.7	30.9
Oct	86.0	18.7	71.5	19.2
Sep	86.0	21.2	69.5	17.0
Aug	74.4	23.8	64.9	27.1
Jul	81.4	15.3	68.4	24.4
Jun	85.3	27.5	71.2	33.9
May	76.2	25.6	66.1	31.3
Apr	75.2	16.8	62.2	14.4
Mar	85.6	22.0	69.3	18.0
Feb	70.0	9.7	56.8	3.2
Jan	63.4	-0.3	55.1	-1.9
Dec 2009	67.5	1.2	55.0	-7.3
Dec 2008	66.7	-8.6	59.4	-5.1
Dec 2007	73.0	-0.6	62.5	-0.1
Dec 2006	73.4	10.2	62.6	8.5
Dec 2005	66.6	11.5	57.7	18.1
Dec 2004	59.7	9.2	48.9	10.8
Dec 2003	54.7	7.6	44.1	3.9
Dec 2002	50.8	5.5	42.5	6.4
Dec 2001	48.2	-3.7	39.9	-17.5
Dec 2000	50.0		48.4

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-9 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland shows exports and trend of German exports. Growth has been with fluctuations around a strong upward trend that is milder than earlier in the recovery but could be moving upwardly after flattenin

Chart VE-9, Germany, Exports Original Value and Trend 2010-2014

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Imports in Chart VE-10 also fell sharply and have been recovering with fluctuations around a strong upward trend that could be flattening. There could be new downward trend.

Chart VE-10, Germany, Imports Original Value and Trend 2010-2014

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-11 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland shows the trade balance of Germany since 2010. There was sharp decline during the global recession and fluctuations around a mild upward trend during the recovery with stabilization followed by stronger trend in recent months and flattening/declining recently. The final segment could be increasing.

Chart VE-11, Germany, Trade Balance Original and Trend 2010-2014

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Table VE-11 provides monthly rates of growth of exports and imports of Germany. Exports decreased 2.1 percent calendar and seasonally adjusted (CSA) in Nov 2014 while imports increased 1.5 percent. Export growth had been relatively strong from Dec 2012 to Apr 2013 with only one monthly decline of 1.4 percent in Feb 2013. Exports fell 1.1 percent in May 2013 and 0.7 percent in Jul 2013. Exports grew in four consecutive months from Aug to Nov 2013. Exports fell in Dec 2013, Feb-Mar 2014, May 2014 an Aug 2014, increasing in Jan, Apr, Jun, Jul 2014, and Sep 2014. Exports fell in Oct-Nov 2014. Export growth and import growth were vigorous in Jan-Mar 2011 when Germany’s economy outperformed most advanced economies but less dynamic and consistent in following months as world trade weakens.

Table VE-11, Germany, Exports and Imports Month ∆% Calendar and Seasonally Adjusted 

	Exports	Imports
Nov 2014	-2.1	1.5
Oct	-0.5	-3.3
Sep	5.5	5.2
Aug	-5.8	-1.3
Jul	4.8	-1.4
Jun	0.9	3.6
May	-1.1	-2.6
Apr	2.6	0.2
Mar	-1.8	-1.3
Feb	-1.3	0.3
Jan	2.5	3.1
Dec 2013	-1.0	-1.5
Nov	0.5	-0.1
Oct	0.3	2.3
Sep	1.4	-1.6
Aug	1.0	0.2
Jul	-0.7	0.7
Jun	0.3	-1.5
May	-1.1	1.8
Apr	0.2	1.2
Mar	1.5	0.3
Feb	-1.4	-3.0
Jan	1.1	2.9
Dec 2012	0.5	-1.4
Nov	-2.4	-3.1
Oct	0.3	2.0
Sep	-2.7	-0.2
Aug	1.7	-0.1
Jul	0.6	0.6
Jun	-1.5	-2.7
May	4.8	5.0
Apr	-1.9	-4.0
Mar	0.2	0.8
Feb	1.4	3.3
Jan	2.1	-0.6
Dec 2011	-2.7	-2.0
Nov	3.0	0.4
Oct	-3.5	-0.9
Sep	1.4	0.3
Aug	2.6	-0.1
Jul	-1.2	0.5
Jun	-0.5	0.0
May	2.9	1.5
Apr	-3.9	-0.3
Mar	4.9	1.6
Feb	1.6	2.5
Jan	0.4	2.8
Dec 2010	0.1	-2.2

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

There is extremely important information in Table VE-12 for the current sovereign risk crisis in the euro zone. Table VE-12 provides the structure of regional and country relations of Germany’s exports and imports with newly available data for Nov 2014. German exports to other European Union (EU) members are 58.5 percent of total exports in Nov 2014 and 58.0 percent in cumulative Jan-Nov 2014. Exports to the euro area are 36.5 percent of the total in Nov and 36.6 percent cumulative in Jan-nov. Exports to third countries are 41.5 percent of the total in Nov and 42.0 percent cumulative in Jan-Nov. There is similar distribution for imports. Exports to non-euro countries are increasing 9.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2014, increasing 9.7 percent cumulative in Jan-Nov 2014 while exports to the euro area are increasing 2.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2014 and increasing 2.5 percent cumulative in Jan-Nov 2014. Exports to third countries, accounting for 41.5 percent of the total in Nov 2014, are decreasing 3.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2014 and increasing 1.3 percent cumulative in Jan-Nov 2014, accounting for 42.0 percent of the cumulative total in Jan-Nov 2014. Price competitiveness through devaluation could improve export performance and growth. Economic performance in Germany is closely related to Germany’s high competitiveness in world markets. Weakness in the euro zone and the European Union in general could affect the German economy. This may be the major reason for choosing the “fiscal abuse” of the European Central Bank considered by Buiter (2011Oct31) over the breakdown of the euro zone. There is a tough analytical, empirical and forecasting doubt of growth and trade in the euro zone and the world with or without maintenance of the European Monetary Union (EMU) or euro zone. Germany could benefit from depreciation of the euro because of high share in its exports to countries not in the euro zone but breakdown of the euro zone raises doubts on the region’s economic growth that could affect German exports to other member states.

Table VE-12, Germany, Structure of Exports and Imports by Region, € Billions and ∆%

	Nov 2014  € Billions	Nov 12-Month ∆%	Cumulative Jan-Nov 2014 € Billions	Cumulative Jan-Nov 2014/ Jan-Nov 2013 ∆%
Total Exports	95.8	1.4	1,045.8	3.4
A. EU Members	56.0 % 58.5	4.8	606.4 % 58.0	5.0
Euro Area	35.0 % 36.5	2.2	382.3 % 36.6	2.5
Non-euro Area	21.1 % 22.0	9.4	224.1 % 21.4	9.7
B. Third Countries	39.8 % 41.5	-3.0	439.4 % 42.0	1.3
Total Imports	78.0	1.7	846.8	2.0
C EU Members	51.4 % 65.9	3.2	553.5 % 65.4	3.7
Euro Area	35.0 % 44.9	3.1	379.8 % 44.9	2.5
Non-euro Area	16.4 % 21.0	3.4	173.6 % 20.5	6.3
D Third Countries	26.6 % 34.1	-1.1	293.3 % 34.6	-0.9

Notes: Total Exports = A+B; Total Imports = C+D

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/01/PE15_008_51.html

VF France. Table VF-FR provides growth rates of GDP of France with the estimates of Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE). The long-term rate of GDP growth of France from IVQ1949 to IVQ2012 is quite high at 3.2 percent. France’s growth rates were quite high in the four decades of the 1950s, 1960, 1970s and 1980s with an average growth rate of 4.0 percent compounding the average rates in the decades and discounting to one decade. The growth impulse diminished with 2.0 percent in the 1990s and 1.8 percent from 2000 to 2007. The average growth rate from 2000 to 2012, using fourth quarter data, is 1.1 percent because of the sharp impact of the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. The growth rate from 2000 to 2012 is 1.1 percent. Cobet and Wilson (2002) provide estimates of output per hour and unit labor costs in national currency and US dollars for the US, Japan and Germany from 1950 to 2000 (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 137-44). The average yearly rate of productivity change from 1950 to 2000 was 2.9 percent in the US, 6.3 percent for Japan and 4.7 percent for Germany while unit labor costs in USD increased at 2.6 percent in the US, 4.7 percent in Japan and 4.3 percent in Germany. From 1995 to 2000, output per hour increased at the average yearly rate of 4.6 percent in the US, 3.9 percent in Japan and 2.6 percent in Germany while unit labor costs in US fell at minus 0.7 percent in the US, 4.3 percent in Japan and 7.5 percent in Germany. There was increase in productivity growth in the G7 in Japan and France in the second half of the 1990s but significantly lower than the acceleration of 1.3 percentage points per year in the US. Lucas (2011May) compares growth of the G7 economies (US, UK, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Canada) and Spain, finding that catch-up growth with earlier rates for the US and UK stalled in the 1970s.

Table VF-FR, France, Average Growth Rates of GDP Fourth Quarter, 1949-2013

Period	Average ∆%
1949-2013	3.2
2007-2013	0.3
2000-2013	1.1
2000-2012	1.1
2000-2007	1.8
1990-1999	2.0
1980-1989	2.6
1970-1979	3.7
1960-1969	5.7
1950-1959	4.2

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=28&date=20141223

The Markit Flash France Composite Output Index increased from 47.9 in Nov to 49.1 in Dec (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/164a06d3e29043298b950633fdf8797c). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds continuing weak performance (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/164a06d3e29043298b950633fdf8797c). The Markit France Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing with close association with French GDP, decreased from 48.2 in Oct to 47.9 in Nov, indicating marginal contraction (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d48dedfcd0b54811bad95681303aa778). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the France Services PMI^®, finds restraint of growth by the private sector (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d48dedfcd0b54811bad95681303aa778). The Markit France Services Activity index decreased from 48.3 in Oct to 47.9 in Nov (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d48dedfcd0b54811bad95681303aa778). The Markit France Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^® decreased to 47.5 in Dec from 48.4 in Nov (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/944c79ea443643ea93349eeda9c44f4d). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the France Manufacturing PMI^®, finds faster decline of output and employment in manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/944c79ea443643ea93349eeda9c44f4d). Table FR provides the country data table for France.

Table FR, France, Economic Indicators

CPI	Nov month ∆% -0.2 12 months ∆%: 0.3 12/14/14
PPI	Nov month ∆%: -0.2 Nov 12 months ∆%: -2.0 Blog 12/28/14
GDP Growth	IIIQ2014/IIQ2014 ∆%:0.3 IIIQ2014/IIIQ2013 ∆%: 0.4 Blog 3/31/13 5/19/12 6/30/13 9/29/13 11/17/13 12/29/13 2/16/14 4/6/14 5/18/14 6/29/14 8/17/14 9/28/14 11/16/14 12/28/14
Industrial Production	Oct ∆%: Manufacturing -0.2 12-Month ∆%: Manufacturing -0.6 Blog 12/14/14
Consumer Spending	Manufactured Goods Nov ∆%: 0.4 Nov 12-Month Manufactured Goods ∆%: -1.1 Blog 12/28/14
Employment	Unemployment Rate: IIIQ2014 9.9% Blog 12/7/14
Trade Balance	Oct Exports ∆%: month 0.5, 12 months 1.8 Oct Imports ∆%: month 0.1, 12 months 0.6 Blog 12/14/14
Confidence Indicators	Historical average 100 Nov Mfg Business Climate 99.0 Blog 12/28/14

Links to blog comments in Table FR:

12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

12/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/global-financial-and-economic-risk.html

12/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/financial-risks-twenty-six-million.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

9/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

12/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/collapse-of-united-states-dynamism-of.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

6/30/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/tapering-quantitative-easing-policy-and.html

5/19/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/word-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

VG Italy. Table VG-IT provides percentage changes in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier of Italy’s expenditure components in chained volume measures. GDP has been declining at sharper rates from minus 0.7 percent in IVQ2011 to minus 2.5 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.5 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.2 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.8 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 1.2 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.3 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and decreased 0.4 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. The aggregate demand components of consumption and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) have been declining at faster rates. The rates of decline of GDP, consumption and GFCF were somewhat milder in IIIQ2013 and IVQ2013 than in IQ2013 and the final three quarters of 2012. Consumption fell 0.3 percent in IQ2014 and GFCF fell 1.4 percent. In IIQ2014, consumption increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier and GFCF fell 2.2 percent. GDP fell 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier while consumption increased 0.4 percent and GFCF fell 3.1 percent.

Table VG-IT, Italy, GDP and Expenditure Components, Chained Volume Measures, Quarter ∆% on Same Quarter Year Earlier

	GDP	Imports	Consumption	GFCF	Exports
2014
IIIQ	-0.5	-0.7	0.4	-3.1	1.3
IIQ	-0.4	1.8	0.2	-2.2	2.5
IQ	-0.3	-0.1	-0.3	-1.4	1.5
2013
IVQ	-1.2	0.5	-1.1	-3.4	1.4
IIIQ	-1.8	-1.7	-2.2	-4.3	0.4
IIQ	-2.2	-4.1	-2.7	-6.2	0.4
IQ	-2.5	-5.0	-2.9	-7.6	1.3
2012
IVQ	-2.5	-7.6	-3.5	-7.8	1.3
IIIQ	-2.5	-8.0	-3.7	-8.1	2.5
IIQ	-2.4	-8.6	-3.6	-7.6	1.2
IQ	-1.9	-8.5	-3.0	-6.5	1.6
2011
IVQ	-0.7	-7.0	-2.1	-4.0	2.4
IIIQ	0.5	0.4	-0.8	-2.4	4.6
IIQ	1.3	3.7	0.4	-0.9	7.7
IQ	1.9	8.4	0.7	0.6	10.3
2010
IVQ	2.3	14.6	1.3	0.9	13.0
IIIQ	1.8	12.9	1.1	0.6	12.4
IIQ	1.9	14.2	1.0	-0.4	13.2
IQ	0.7	6.7	0.9	-3.3	6.8
2009
IVQ	-3.5	-6.3	0.2	-8.2	-9.3
IIIQ	-5.0	-12.2	-0.8	-12.6	-16.4
IIQ	-6.6	-17.9	-1.4	-13.6	-21.4
IQ	-6.9	-17.2	-1.8	-12.4	-22.8
2008
IVQ	-3.0	-8.2	-0.9	-8.3	-10.3
IIIQ	-1.9	-5.0	-0.8	-4.5	-3.9
IIQ	-0.2	-0.1	-0.3	-1.5	0.4
IQ	0.5	1.7	0.1	-1.0	2.9

GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/140552

The Markit/ADACI Business Activity Index increased from 50.8 in Oct to 51.8 in Nov (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e5d7ad3821eb4839a5d9e2736c52ae01). Phil Smith, Economist at Markit and author of the Italy Services PMI^®, finds weakening demand (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e5d7ad3821eb4839a5d9e2736c52ae01). The Markit/ADACI Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®), decreased from 49.0 in Nov to 48.4 in Dec (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/adfcb225d48e4463913877323a4b6df6). New export orders continued to increase. Phil Smith, Economist at Markit and author of the Italian Manufacturing PMI^®, finds fragile conditions in manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/adfcb225d48e4463913877323a4b6df6). Table IT provides the country data table for Italy.

Table IT, Italy, Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index	Dec month ∆%: 0.0 Dec 12-month ∆%: 0.0 Blog 1/11/15
Producer Price Index	Nov month ∆%: -0.2 Oct 12-month ∆%: -1.6 Blog 1/4/15
GDP Growth	IIIQ2014/IIQ2014 SA ∆%: minus 0.1 IIIQ2014/IIQ2013 NSA ∆%: minus 0.5 Blog 3/17/13 6/16/13 8/11/13 9/15/13 11/17/13 12/15/13 2/16/14 3/16/14 5/18/14 6/15/14 8/10/14 8/31/14 10/19/14 11/16/14 12/7/14
Labor Report	Nov 2014 Participation rate 64.3% Employment ratio 55.5% Unemployment rate 13.4% Youth Unemployment 43.9% Blog 1/11/15
Industrial Production	Oct month ∆%: -0.1 12 months CA ∆%: -3.0 Blog 12/14/14
Retail Sales	Oct month ∆%: 0.0 Oct 12-month ∆%: -0.8 Blog 12/28/14
Business Confidence	Mfg Dec 97.5, Aug 95.7 Construction Dec 72.3, Aug 76.5 Blog 1/4/15
Trade Balance	Balance Oct SA €3922 million versus Sep €3531 Exports Oct month SA ∆%: 0.4; Imports 12 month ∆%: -0.9 Exports 12 months Oct NSA ∆%: 2.9 Imports 12 months NSA ∆%: -1.6 Blog 12/21/14

Links to blog comments in Table IT:

1/4/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/01/peaking-valuations-of-risk-financial.html

12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

12/21/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/patience-on-interest-rate-increases.html

12/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/global-financial-and-economic-risk.html

12/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/financial-risks-twenty-six-million.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

10/19/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/imf-view-squeeze-of-economic-activity.html

8/31/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitical-and-financial-risks.html

8/10/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/volatility-of-valuations-of-risk_10.html

6/15/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financialgeopolitical-risks-recovery.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

8/11/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/recovery-without-hiring-loss-of-full.html

6/16/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/recovery-without-hiring-seven-million.html

3/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

Data on Italy’s labor market since 2004 are provided in Table VG-1. The unemployment rate has risen from 6.2 percent in Dec 2006 to 13.4 percent in Nov 2014. The rate of youth unemployment for ages 15 to 24 years increased from 20.2 percent in Dec 2006 to 43.9 percent in Nov 2014. As in other advanced economies, unemployment has reached high levels.

Table VG-1, Italy, Labor Report

	Participation Rate %	Employment Ratio %	Unemployment Rate %	Unemployment Rate 15-24 Years %
Nov 2014	64.3	55.5	13.4	43.9
Oct	64.3	55.6	13.3	43.3
Sep	64.2	55.7	12.9	42.7
Aug	63.9	55.6	12.7	43.3
Jul	63.9	55.6	12.8	42.8
Jun	63.8	55.7	12.5	43.5
May	63.8	55.6	12.6	42.6
Apr	63.6	55.5	12.6	43.1
Mar	63.8	55.7	12.6	42.5
Feb	63.7	55.5	12.7	42.3
Jan	63.7	55.5	12.7	42.2
Dec 2013	63.5	55.5	12.5	41.5
Nov	63.6	55.5	12.5	41.4
Oct	63.4	55.5	12.3	41.4
Sep	63.3	55.4	12.5	41.2
Aug	63.5	55.5	12.4	40.9
Jul	63.4	55.7	12.0	40.1
Jun	63.5	55.6	12.3	39.4
May	63.5	55.6	12.2	38.9
Apr	63.5	55.8	12.0	39.4
Mar	63.5	55.8	11.9	39.0
Feb	63.6	56.0	11.8	38.6
Jan	63.6	56.0	11.8	38.3
Dec 2012	63.7	56.3	11.4	37.3
Nov	63.7	56.4	11.2	37.5
Oct	63.8	56.4	11.4	36.5
Sep	63.7	56.6	10.9	36.3
Aug	63.6	56.7	10.7	34.5
Jul	63.8	56.7	10.9	35.4
Jun	63.8	56.8	10.8	34.6
May	63.8	57.0	10.5	35.7
Apr	63.8	56.9	10.7	34.8
Mar	63.7	56.8	10.6	35.3
Feb	63.5	57.0	10.1	33.7
Jan	63.2	57.1	9.6	32.3
Dec 2011	62.9	56.9	9.4	31.8
Nov	62.6	56.8	9.2	31.8
Oct	62.5	57.0	8.7	30.5
Sep	62.4	56.8	8.8	30.5
Aug	62.4	57.0	8.5	29.2
Jul	62.3	57.0	8.3	28.7
Jun	62.0	57.0	8.1	27.8
May	62.1	57.0	8.1	27.8
Apr	61.8	56.9	7.8	27.3
Mar	62.1	57.1	8.0	27.9
Feb	61.8	56.8	7.9	27.7
Jan	61.9	56.9	8.0	28.3
Dec 2010	62.1	56.9	8.2	28.5
Dec 2009	62.4	57.1	8.4	26.6
Dec 2008	62.5	58.2	6.8	22.8
Dec 2007	63.1	58.9	6.6	21.5
Dec 2006	62.5	58.5	6.2	20.2
Dec 2005	62.6	57.8	7.4	23.4
Dec 2004	62.5	57.5	7.9	23.6

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/144194

Table VG-2 provides more detail on the labor report for Italy in Nov 2014. The level of employment decreased 48,000 from Oct 2014 to Nov 2014 and decreased 42,000 from Nov 2013 to Nov 2014. Unemployment increased 40,000 in Nov 2014 and increased 264,000 from a year earlier. A dramatic aspect found in most advanced economies is the high rate of unemployment of youth at 43.9 percent in Nov 2014 for ages 15 to 24 years.

Table VG-2, Italy, Labor Report, NSA

Nov 2014	1000s	Change from Prior Month 1000s	∆% from Prior Month	Change from Prior Year 1000s	∆% from Prior Year
EMP	22,310	-48	-0.2	-42	-0.2
UNE	3,457	40	1.2	264	8.3
INA   15-64	14,064	-12	-0.1	-312	-2.2
EMP 15-24	934	0	0.0	-8	-0.9
UNE 15-24	729	18	2.5	63	9.4
INA 15-24	4,304	-22	-0.5	-93	-2.1
EMP %	55.5		-0.1		0.0
UNE %	13.4		0.2		0.9
Youth UNE %  15-24	43.9		0.6		2.4
INA % 15-64	35.7		0.0		-0.7

Notes: EMP: Employed; UNE: Unemployed; INA 15-64: Inactive aged 15 to 64; EMP %: Employment Rate; UNE %: Unemployment Rate; Youth UNE % 15-24: Youth Unemployment Rate aged 15 to 24; INA % 15-64: Inactive Rate aged 15 to 64.

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/144194

Chart VG-1 provides the rate of unemployment in Italy that increased from 12.5 percent in Nov 2013 to 13.4 percent in Nov 2014.

Chart VG-1, Italy, Rate of Unemployment, %

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/en/

Chart VG-2 of the Istituto Nazionale di Statistica provides the total number of employed persons in Italy. The level of employment dropped from 22.358 million in Nov 2013 to 22.310 million in Nov 2014.

Chart VG-2, Italy, Total Number of Employed Persons, Millions, SA

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/en/

VH United Kingdom. Annual data in Table VH-UK show the strong impact of the global recession in the UK with decline of GDP of 4.3 percent in 2009 after dropping 0.3 percent in 2008. Recovery of 1.9 percent in 2010 is relatively low in comparison with annual growth rates in 2007 and earlier years. Growth was only 1.6 percent in 2011 and 0.7 percent in 2012. Growth increased to 1.7 percent in 2013. The bottom part of Table VH-UK provides average growth rates of UK GDP since 1948. The UK economy grew at 2.6 percent per year on average between 1948 and 2013, which is relatively high for an advanced economy. The growth rate of GDP between 2000 and 2007 is higher at 2.9 percent. Growth in the current cyclical expansion has been only at 1.2 percent as advanced economies struggle with weak internal demand and world trade. GDP in 2013 higher by 1.1 percent relative to 2007.

Table VH-UK, UK, Gross Domestic Product, ∆%

	∆% on Prior Year
1998	3.5
1999	3.2
2000	3.8
2001	2.7
2002	2.5
2003	4.3
2004	2.5
2005	2.8
2006	3.0
2007	2.6
2008	-0.3
2009	-4.3
2010	1.9
2011	1.6
2012	0.7
2013	1.7
Average Growth Rates ∆% per Year
1948-2013	2.6
1950-1959	3.1
1960-1969	3.1
1970-1979	2.6
1980-1989	3.1
1990-1999	2.2
2000-2007	2.9
2007-2012*	-0.6
2007-2013*	1.1
2000-2013	1.6

*Absolute change from 2007 to 2012 an from 2007 to 2013

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/quarterly-national-accounts/q3-2014/index.html

The Business Activity Index of the Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI^® increased from 56.2 in Oct to 58.6 in Nov (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c5ca3e98654d444d8c2026c74987e333). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds the combined indices consistent with the UK economy growing at around 0.7 percent in IVQ2014 and 3.0 percent in 2014 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c5ca3e98654d444d8c2026c74987e333). The Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®) decreased to 52.5 in Dec from 53.3 in Nov (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4d01268bff024ebe82c225f3023f5c87). New export orders stabilized in Dec with restrained global markets and strong UK currency with increases in business from North America and the Middle East. Rob Dobson, Senior Economist at Markit that compiles the Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI^®, finds that manufacturing conditions are strong but slowing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4d01268bff024ebe82c225f3023f5c87). Table UK provides the economic indicators for the United Kingdom.

Table UK, UK Economic Indicators

CPI	Nov month ∆%: -0.3 Nov 12-month ∆%: 1.0 Blog 12/21/14
Output/Input Prices	Output Prices: Nov 12-month NSA ∆%: -0.1; excluding food, petroleum ∆%: 1.4 Input Prices: Nov 12-month NSA ∆%: -8.8 Excluding ∆%: -2.7 Blog 12/21/14
GDP Growth	IIIQ2014 prior quarter ∆% 0.7; year earlier same quarter ∆%: 2.6 Blog 3/31/13 4/28/13 5/26/13 7/28/13 8/25/13 9/29/13 10/27/13 12/1/13 12/22/13 2/2/14 3/2/14 4/6/14 5/4/14 5/25/14 6/29/14 7/27/14 8/17/14 10/5/14 10/26/14 11/30/14 12/28/14
Industrial Production	Oct 2014/Oct 2013 ∆%: Production Industries 1.6; Manufacturing 1.7 Blog 12/14/14
Retail Sales	Nov month ∆%: 1.6 Nov 12-month ∆%: 6.4 Blog 12/21/14
Labor Market	Aug-Oct Unemployment Rate: 6.0%; Claimant Count 2.7%; Earnings Growth 1.4% Blog 12/21/14 LMGDP 11/16/14
GDP and the Labor Market	IIIQ2014 Weekly Hours 103.4, GDP 103.3, Employment 103.7 IQ2008 =100 GDP IIIQ14 103.3 IQ2008=100 Blog 11/16/14
Trade Balance	Balance SA Aug minus ₤2024 million Exports Oct ∆%: 0.5; Aug-Oct ∆%: -2.4 Imports Oct ∆%: -1.3 Aug-Oct ∆%: -5.6 Blog 12/14/14

Links to blog comments in Table UK:

12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

12/21/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/patience-on-interest-rate-increases.html

12/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/global-financial-and-economic-risk.html

11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

10/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/financial-oscillations-world-inflation.html

10/5/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/world-financial-turbulence-twenty-seven.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

7/27/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

5/4/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html

4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html

3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html

2/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

12/22/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html

12/1/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/exit-risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html

10/27/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/twenty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html

9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html

7/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html

5/26/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

4/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_28.html

03/31/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015.