Cumulative Growth of US Manufacturing of 17.5 Percent From May to Aug 2020 But Decreasing 0.3 Percent in Sep 2020, US Manufacturing 6.8 Percent Lower Than A Year Earlier In the Global Recession, with Output in the US Reaching a High in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the Lockdown of Economic Activity in the COVID-19 Event, US Manufacturing Underperforming Below Trend in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth Underperforming Below Trend Worldwide, Squeeze of Economic Activity by Carry Trades Induced by Zero Interest Rates, Continuing Recovery of US Economic Indicators, World Cyclical Slow Growth, and Government Intervention in Globalization: Part V

Cumulative Growth of US Manufacturing of 17.5 Percent From May to Aug 2020 But Decreasing 0.3 Percent in Sep 2020, US Manufacturing 6.8 Percent Lower Than A Year Earlier In the Global Recession, with Output in the US Reaching a High in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the Lockdown of Economic Activity in the COVID-19 Event, US Manufacturing Underperforming Below Trend in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth Underperforming Below Trend Worldwide, Squeeze of Economic Activity by Carry Trades Induced by Zero Interest Rates, Continuing Recovery of US Economic Indicators, World Cyclical Slow Growth, and Government Intervention in Globalization

Carlos M. Pelaez

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020.

I United States Industrial Production

IIB Squeeze of Economic Activity by Carry Trades Induced by Zero Interest Rates

III World Financial Turbulence

IV Global Inflation

V World Economic Slowdown

VA United States

VB Japan

VC China

VD Euro Area

VE Germany

VF France

VG Italy

VH United Kingdom

VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets

VII Economic Indicators

VIII Interest Rates

IX Conclusion

References

Appendixes

Appendix I The Great Inflation

IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies

IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact

IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort

IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis

V World Economic Slowdown. Table V-1 is constructed with the database of the IMF (https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/index.aspx) to show GDP in dollars in 2018 and the growth rate of real GDP of the world and selected regional countries from 2018 to 2021. The data illustrate the concept often repeated of “two-speed recovery” of the world economy from the recession of 2007 to 2009. There is a major change in the sharp contraction of world real GDP of 3.1 percent in 2020 in the probable global recession originating in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The IMF has changed its measurement of growth of the world economy to 3.6 percent in 2018 and reducing the forecast rate of growth to 2.9 percent in 2019, minus 3.1 percent in 2020 and 5.8 percent in 2021. Slow-speed recovery occurs in the “major advanced economies” of the G7 that are projected to grow at much lower rates than world output, 0.4 percent on average from 2018 to 2021, in contrast with 2.2 percent for the world as a whole. While the world would grow 9.3 percent in the four years from 2018 to 2021, the G7 as a whole would grow 1.6 percent. The “two speed” concept is in reference to the growth of the 150 countries labeled as emerging and developing economies (EMDE). The EMDEs would grow cumulatively 14.2 percent or at the average yearly rate of 3.4 percent.

Table V-1, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Real GDP Growth

	GDP USD Billions 2018	Real GDP ∆% 2018	Real GDP ∆% 2019	Real GDP ∆% 2020	Real GDP ∆% 2021
World	135,762	3.6	2.9	-3.1	5.8
G7	40,783	2.0	1.6	-6.2	4.5
Canada	1,842	2.0	1.6	-6.2	4.3
France	2,970	1.7	1.3	-7.2	4.5
DE	4,343	1.5	0.6	-7.0	5.2
Italy	2,406	0.8	0.3	-9.1	4.8
Japan	5,578	0.3	0.7	-5.2	3.0
UK	3,065	1.3	1.4	-6.5	4.0
US	20,580	2.9	2.3	-5.9	4.7
Euro Area	NA	1.9	1.2	-7.5	4.7
DE	4,343	1.5	0.6	-7.0	5.2
France	2,970	1.7	1.3	7.2	4.5
Italy	2,406	0.8	0.3	-9.1	4.8
POT	334	2.6	2.2	-8.0	5.0
Ireland	389	8.3	5.5	-6.8	6.3
Greece	312	1.9	1.9	-10.0	5.1
Spain	1,854	2.4	2.0	-8.0	4.3
EMDE	80,401	4.5	3.7	-1.1	6.6
Brazil	3,383	1.3	1.1	-5.3	2.9
Russia	4,258	2.5	1.3	-5.5	3.5
India	10,413	6.1	4.2	1.9	7.4
China	25,294	6.8	6.1	1.2	9.2

Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries); POT: Portugal

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook databank

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/index.aspx

Continuing high rates of unemployment in advanced economies constitute another characteristic of the database of the WEO (Continuing high rates of unemployment in advanced economies constitute another characteristic of the database of the WEO (https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2019/02/weodata/index.aspx). Table V-2 is constructed with the WEO database to provide rates of unemployment from 2017 to 2021 for major countries and regions. In fact, unemployment rates for 2017 in Table V-2 are high for all countries: unusually high for countries with high rates most of the time and unusually high for countries with low rates most of the time. The rates of unemployment are particularly high in 2017 for the countries with sovereign debt difficulties in Europe: 8.9 percent for Portugal (POT), 6.7 percent for Ireland, 21.5 percent for Greece, 17.2 percent for Spain and 11.3 percent for Italy, which is lower but still high. The G7 rate of unemployment is 5.0 percent. Unemployment rates are not likely to decrease substantially if relative slow cyclical growth persists in advanced economies. There are sharp increases in the rates of unemployment in 2020 in the probable global recession originating in the lockdown of economy activity in the COVID-19 event. The rate of unemployment increases to 7.8 percent for the G7 countries and 10.4 percent for the euro area.

Table V-2, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Unemployment Rate as Percent of Labor Force

	% Labor Force 2017	% Labor Force 2018	% Labor Force 2019	% Labor Force 2020	% Labor Force 2021
World	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
G7	5.0	4.5	4.3	7.8	6.9
Canada	6.3	5.8	5.7	7.5	7.2
France	9.4	9.0	8.5	10.4	10.4
DE	3.8	3.4	3.2	3.9	3.5
Italy	11.3	10.6	10.0	12.7	10.5
Japan	2.8	2.4	2.4	3.0	2.3
UK	4.4	4.1	3.8	4.8	4.4
US	4.3	3.9	3.7	10.4	9.1
Euro Area	9.1	8.2	7.6	10.4	8.9
DE	3.8	3.4	3.2	3.9	3.5
France	9.4	9.0	8.5	10.4	10.4
Italy	11.3	10.6	10.0	12.7	10.5
POT	8.9	7.0	6.5	13.9	8.7
Ireland	6.7	5.8	5.0	12.1	7.9
Greece	21.5	19.3	17.3	22.3	19.0
Spain	17.2	15.3	14.1	20.8	17.5
EMDE	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
Brazil	12.8	12.3	11.9	14.7	13.5
Russia	5.2	4.8	4.6	4.9	4.8
India	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
China	3.9	3.8	3.6	4.3	3.8

Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries)

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/index.aspx

There are references to adverse periods as “lost decades.” There is a more prolonged and adverse period in Table V-3A: the lost economic cycle of the Global Recession with economic growth underperforming below trend worldwide. Economic contractions were relatively high but not comparable to the decline of GDP during the Great Depression. In fact, during the Great Depression in the four years of 1930 to 1933, US GDP in constant dollars fell 26.3 percent cumulatively and fell 45.3 percent in current dollars (Pelaez and Pelaez, Financial Regulation after the Global Recession (2009a), 150-2, Pelaez and Pelaez, Globalization and the State, Vol. II (2009b), 205-7 and revisions in http://bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). Data are available for the 1930s only on a yearly basis. The contraction of GDP in the current cycle of the Global Recession was much lower, 4.0 percent (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/10/dollar-carry-trades-induced-from-zero.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/d-ollar-devaluation-and-yuan.html). Contractions are sharper in the global recession resulting from the COVID-19 event (https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-september-2020.htm). US economic growth has been at only 1.2 percent on average in the cyclical expansion in the 44 quarters from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2020 and in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Boskin (2010Sep) measures that the US economy grew at 6.2 percent in the first four quarters and 4.5 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the second quarter of 1975; and at 7.7 percent in the first four quarters and 5.8 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the first quarter of 1983 (Professor Michael J. Boskin, Summer of Discontent, Wall Street Journal, Sep 2, 2010 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882304575465462926649950.html). There are new calculations using the revision of US GDP and personal income data since 1929 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (http://bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) and the third estimate of GDP for IIQ2020 (https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2020-09/gdp2q20_3rd.pdf). The average of 7.7 percent in the first four quarters of major cyclical expansions is in contrast with the rate of growth in the first four quarters of the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010 of only 2.8 percent obtained by dividing GDP of $15,557.3 billion in IIQ2010 by GDP of $15,134.1 billion in IIQ2009 {[($15,557.3/$15,134.1) -1]100 = 2.8%], or accumulating the quarter on quarter growth rates (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/10/dollar-carry-trades-induced-from-zero.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/d-ollar-devaluation-and-yuan.html). The expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1986 was at the average annual growth rate of 5.7 percent, 5.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1986, 5.1 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1986, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1989, 4.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1989, 4.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1989, 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1989. 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1990, 4.4 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1990, 4.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1990, 4.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1990, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ2019, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1993 and at 7.9 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/10/dollar-carry-trades-induced-from-zero.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/d-ollar-devaluation-and-yuan.html). The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dates a contraction of the US from IQ1990 (Jul) to IQ1991 (Mar) (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html). The expansion lasted until another contraction beginning in IQ2001 (Mar). US GDP contracted 1.3 percent from the pre-recession peak of $8983.9 billion of chained 2009 dollars in IIIQ1990 to the trough of $8865.6 billion in IQ1991 (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IIQ2020 and in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event would have accumulated to 44.7 percent. GDP in IIQ2020 would be $22,807.6 billion (in constant dollars of 2012) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $5505.1 billion than actual $17,302.5 billion. There are more than five trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 32.7 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 18.9 percent of the effective labor force with the largest part originating in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/10/increasingvaluations-of-risk-financial.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/09/exchange-rate-fluctuations-1.html). Unemployment is decreasing while employment is increasing in initial adjustment of the lockdown of economic activity in the global recession resulting from the COVID-19 event (https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-september-2020.htm). US GDP in IIQ2020 is 24.1 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $15,762.0 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $17,302.5 billion in IIQ2020 or 9.8 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 0.7 percent. Professor John H. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. Cochrane (2016May02) measures GDP growth in the US at average 3.5 percent per year from 1950 to 2000 and only at 1.76 percent per year from 2000 to 2015 with only at 2.0 percent annual equivalent in the current expansion. Cochrane (2016May02) proposes drastic changes in regulation and legal obstacles to private economic activity. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 2.9 percent per year from Sep 1919 to Sep 2020. Growth at 2.9 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 155.9263 in Sep 2020. The actual index NSA in Sep 2020 is 98.5100 which is 36.8 percent below trend. The underperformance of manufacturing in Mar-Aug 2020 originates partly in the earlier global recession augmented by the current global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19. Manufacturing grew at the average annual rate of 3.3 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2006. Growth at 3.3 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 163.8334 in Sep 2020. The actual index NSA in Sep 2020 is 98.5100, which is 39.9 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 1.7 percent between Dec 1986 and Sep 2020. Using trend growth of 1.7 percent per year, the index would increase to 134.2658 in Sep 2020. The output of manufacturing at 98.5100 in Sep 2020 is 26.6 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Using the NAICS (North American Industry Classification System), manufacturing output fell from the high of 110.5147 in Jun 2007 to the low of 86.3800 in Apr 2009 or 21.8 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased from 86.3800 in Apr 2009 to 99.7738 in Sep 2020 or 15.5 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased at the annual equivalent rate of 3.5 percent from Dec 1986 to Dec 2006. Growth at 3.5 percent would increase the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 165.4105 in Sep 2020. The NAICS index at 99.7738 in Sep 2020 is 39.7 below trend. The NAICS manufacturing output index grew at 1.7 percent annual equivalent from Dec 1999 to Dec 2006. Growth at 1.7 percent would raise the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 132.2561 in Sep 2020. The NAICS index at 99.7738 in Sep 2020 is 24.6 percent below trend under this alternative calculation.

Table V-3A, Cycle 2007-2020, Percentage Contraction, Average Growth Rate in Expansion, Average Growth Rate in Whole Cycle and GDP Percent Below Trend

	Contraction ∆%	Expansion Average ∆%	Whole Cycle Average ∆%	Below Trend Percent
USA	4.0	1.2	0.7	24.2
Japan	8.6	0.4	-0.4	NA
Euro Area 19	5.7	-0.2	-0.6	30.1
France	3.9	-0.8	-0.9	27.9
Germany	7.0	0.7	0.0	NA
UK	5.9	-0.6	-1.0	35.4

Note: AV: Average. Expansion and Whole Cycle AV ∆% calculated with quarterly growth, seasonally adjusted and quarterly adjusted when applicable, rates and converted into annual equivalent. Combines the Global Recession after 2007 and the COVID-19 Global Recession after IQ2020.

Data reported periodically in this blog.

Source: Country Statistical Agencies https://www.bls.gov/bls/other.htm https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/related-sites.html

Manufacturing is underperforming in the lost cycle of the global recession. Manufacturing (NAICS) in Sep 2020 is lower by 9.7 percent relative to the peak in Jun 2007, as shown in Chart V-3A. Manufacturing (SIC) in Sep 2020 at 98.510 is lower by 12.3 percent relative to the peak at 112.3113 in Jun 2007. There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 2.9 percent per year from Sep 1919 to Sep 2020. Growth at 2.9 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 155.9263 in Sep 2020. The actual index NSA in Sep 2020 is 98.5100 which is 36.8 percent below trend. The underperformance of manufacturing in Mar-Aug 2020 originates partly in the earlier global recession augmented by the current global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19. Manufacturing grew at the average annual rate of 3.3 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2006. Growth at 3.3 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 163.8334 in Sep 2020. The actual index NSA in Sep 2020 is 98.5100, which is 39.9 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 1.7 percent between Dec 1986 and Sep 2020. Using trend growth of 1.7 percent per year, the index would increase to 134.2658 in Sep 2020. The output of manufacturing at 98.5100 in Sep 2020 is 26.6 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Using the NAICS (North American Industry Classification System), manufacturing output fell from the high of 110.5147 in Jun 2007 to the low of 86.3800 in Apr 2009 or 21.8 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased from 86.3800 in Apr 2009 to 99.7738 in Sep 2020 or 15.5 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased at the annual equivalent rate of 3.5 percent from Dec 1986 to Dec 2006. Growth at 3.5 percent would increase the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 165.4105 in Sep 2020. The NAICS index at 99.7738 in Sep 2020 is 39.7 below trend. The NAICS manufacturing output index grew at 1.7 percent annual equivalent from Dec 1999 to Dec 2006. Growth at 1.7 percent would raise the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 132.2561 in Sep 2020. The NAICS index at 99.7738 in Sep 2020 is 24.6 percent below trend under this alternative calculation.

Chart V-3A, United States Manufacturing NSA, Dec 2007 to Sep 2020

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm

Chart V-3A, United States Manufacturing (NAICS) NSA, Jun 2007 to Sep 2020

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm

Chart V-3B provides the civilian noninstitutional population of the United States, or those available for work. The civilian noninstitutional population increased from 231.713 million in Jun 2007 to 260.742 million in Sep 2020 or 29.029 million.

Chart V-3B, United States, Civilian Noninstitutional Population, Million, NSA, Jan 2007 to Sep 2020

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/

Chart V-3C provides nonfarm payroll manufacturing jobs in the United States from Jan 2007 to Sep 2020. Nonfarm payroll manufacturing jobs fell from 13.987 million in Jun 2007 to 12.224 million in Sep 2020, or 1.763 million.

Chart V-3C, United States, Payroll Manufacturing Jobs, NSA, Jan 2007 to Sep 2020, Thousands

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/

Chart V-3D provides the index of US manufacturing (NAICS) from Jan 1972 to Sep 2020. The index continued increasing during the decline of manufacturing jobs after the early 1980s. There are likely effects of changes in the composition of manufacturing with also changes in productivity and trade. There is sharp decline in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. There is initial recovery in May-Aug 2020.

Chart V-3D, United States Manufacturing (NAICS) NSA, Jan 1972 to Sep 2020

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm

Chart V-3E provides the US noninstitutional civilian population, or those in condition of working, from Jan 1948, when first available, to Aug 2020. The noninstitutional civilian population increased from 170.042 million in Jun 1981 to 260.742 million in Sep 2020, or 90.700 million.

Chart V-3E, United States, Civilian Noninstitutional Population, Million, NSA, Jan 1948 to Sep 2020

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/

Chart V-3F provides manufacturing jobs in the United States from Jan 1939 to Sep 2020. Nonfarm payroll manufacturing jobs decreased from a peak of 18.890 million in Jun 1981 to 12.224 million in Sep 2020.

Chart V-3C, United States, Payroll Manufacturing Jobs, NSA, Jan 1939 to Sep 2020, Thousands

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/

There is global stress in manufacturing. Table V-3B provides month and 12-month percentage changes of new orders in manufacturing and output of manufacturing in Germany.

Table V-3B, Germany, Manufacturing Orders and Manufacturing Output, ∆% Month and 12 Months

	MFG New Orders Month ∆%	MFG New Orders 12 Months ∆%	MFG Output Month ∆%	MFG Output 12 Month ∆%
Aug 2020	4.5	-4.3	-0.7	-14.4
Jul	3.3	-6.8	3.1	-11.6
Jun	28.8	-5.4	11.1	-7.9
May	10.4	-33.4	10.0	-29.0
Apr	-26.1	-36.9	-21.2	-30.1
Mar	-15.0	-11.9	-11.0	-9.2
Feb	-1.2	0.7	0.4	-3.7
Jan	4.9	-1.9	2.3	-4.2
Dec 2019	-1.5	-7.1	-1.5	-4.5
Nov	-1.3	-8.5	0.7	-6.9
Oct	-0.4	-5.4	-1.2	-5.6
Sep	1.2	-1.8	-0.8	-1.1
Aug	-0.5	-9.0	0.2	-7.4
Jul	-0.6	-1.8	-0.2	-0.6
Jun	1.4	-11.0	-1.2	-14.4
May	-1.7	-3.6	0.9	1.3
Apr	-0.6	-5.2	-2.6	-3.9
Mar	2.3	-6.2	0.7	-3.4
Feb	-3.9	-7.2	-0.1	0.1
Jan	-3.4	-3.6	-1.0	-3.1
Dec 2018	1.5	-8.2	1.1	-6.7
Dec 2017	2.5	3.9	-0.4	3.7
Dec 2016	4.4	11.2	-1.6	2.0
Dec 2015	-1.6	-0.5	0.8	1.1

Source: Federal Statistical Agency of Germany, https://www.destatis.de/EN/Home/_node.html

Table V-3 provides the latest available estimates of GDP for the regions and countries followed in this blog from IQ2012 to IVQ2018 available now for all countries. There are estimates for all countries for IQ2019 and for IIQ2019 for most countries. There are preliminary estimates for most countries for IIIQ2019 and for IVQ2019. There are some estimates for IQ2020. Growth is weak throughout most of the world.

• Japan. The GDP of Japan increased 1.2 percent in IQ2012, 4.9 percent at SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) and 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier but part of the jump could be the low level a year earlier because of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan is experiencing difficulties with the overvalued yen because of worldwide capital flight originating in zero interest rates with risk aversion in an environment of softer growth of world trade. Japan’s GDP fell 0.7 percent in IIQ2012 at the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of minus 2.9 percent, which is much lower than 4.9 percent in IQ2012. Growth of 2.9 percent in IIQ2012 in Japan relative to IIQ2011 has effects of the low level of output because of Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IIIQ2012 at the SAAR of minus 1.5 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2012 at the SAAR of 1.1 percent and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan grew 1.2 percent in IQ2013 at the SAAR of 5.0 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2013 at the SAAR of 3.1 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP grew 0.8 percent in IIIQ2013 at the SAAR of 3.4 percent and increased 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Japan’s GDP changed 0.0 percent at the SAAR of minus 0.1 percent, increasing 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 1.0 percent in IQ2014 at the SAAR of 4.0 percent and increased 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Japan’s GDP fell 1.9 percent at the SAAR of minus 7.5 percent and fell 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 at the SAAR of 0.4 percent and fell 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, Japan’s GDP grew 0.5 percent, at the SAAR of 2.0 percent, decreasing 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 1.4 percent in IQ2015 at the SAAR of 5.6 percent and increased 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2015 at the SAAR of 0.4 percent and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan decreased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2015 at the SAAR of minus 0.2 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IVQ2015 at the SAAR of minus 1.5 percent and grew 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, the GDP of Japan increased 0.5 percent at the SAAR of 2.1 percent and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2016 at the SAAR of 0.5 percent and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of Japan increased 0.2 percent at the SAAR of 0.9 percent and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2016 at the SAAR of 1.2 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, the GDP of Japan increased 1.2 percent at the SAAR of 4.8 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2017 at the SAAR of 1.2 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, the GDP of Japan increased 0.6 percent at the SAAR of 2.3 percent and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2017, at the SAAR of 1.9 percent, and increased 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, the GDP of Japan decreased 0.4 percent, at the SAAR of minus 1.7 percent and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2018, at the SAAR of 1.5 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, the GDP of Japan contracted 0.8 percent at the SAAR of minus 3.2 percent and decreased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IVQ2018, at the SAAR of 2.3 percent and decreased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, the GDP of Japan increased 0.7 percent at the SAAR of 2.8 percent and grew 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2019, at the SAAR of 1.6 percent and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, the GDP of Japan changed 0.0 percent at the SAAR of 0.2 percent and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP decreased 1.8 percent in IVQ2019, at the SAAR of minus 7.0 percent and decreased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2020, the GDP of Japan contracted 0.6 percent at the SAAR of minus 2.3 percent and decreased 1.8 percent relative to a year. The GDP of Japan contracted 7.9 percent in IIQ2020 at the SAAR of minus 28.1 percent and decreased 9.9 percent relative to a year earlier.
• China. China’s GDP grew 1.9 percent in IQ2012, annualizing to 7.8 percent, and 8.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 2.1 percent in IIQ2012, which annualizes to 8.7 percent, and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 1.8 percent in IIIQ2012, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and 7.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, China grew at 2.0 percent, which annualizes at 8.2 percent, and 8.1 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, China grew at 1.9 percent, which annualizes at 7.8 percent, and 7.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, China grew at 1.8 percent, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 2.1 percent in IIIQ2013, which annualizes at 8.7 percent, and increased 7.9 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 1.6 percent in IVQ2013, which annualized to 6.6 percent, and 7.7 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP grew 1.8 percent in IQ2014, which annualizes to 7.4 percent, and 7.5 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP grew 1.8 percent in IIQ2014, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP grew 1.8 percent in IIIQ2014, which is equivalent to 7.4 percent in a year, and 7.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew 1.7 percent in IVQ2014, which annualizes at 7.0 percent, and 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2015, GDP grew 1.9 percent, which is equivalent to 7.8 in a year and 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 1.8 percent in IIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.4 percent in a year, and grew 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.7 percent in IIIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent in a year, and grew 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.6 percent in IVQ2015, which is equivalent to 6.6 percent in a year and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, GDP grew at 1.5 percent, which is equivalent to 6.1 percent in a year, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.8 percent in IIQ2016, which is annual equivalent to 7.4 percent, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, GDP grew at 1.7 percent, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent in a year and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, GDP grew at 1.6 percent, equivalent to 6.6 percent in a year, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 7.0 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased at 1.7 percent, which is 7.0 percent in annual equivalent. In IIQ2017, GDP grew at 1.8 percent, which is annual equivalent at 7.4 percent, and increased 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.6 percent in IIIQ2017, which is annual equivalent at 6.6 percent, and increased at 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, GDP grew 1.6 percent, which is annual equivalent to 6.6 percent, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.9 percent in IQ2018, which is annual equivalent at 7.8 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2018, GDP grew at 1.6 percent, which is annual equivalent to 6.6 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.5 percent in IIIQ2018, which is annual equivalent at 6.1 percent, and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2018, GDP grew at 1.3 percent, which is annual equivalent to 5.3 percent, and increased 6.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 2.0 percent in IQ2019, which is annual equivalent to 8.2 percent, and increased 6.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2019, GDP grew at 1.2 percent, which is annual equivalent to 4.9 percent and increased 6.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.4 percent in IIIQ2019, which is annual equivalent to 5.7 percent, and increased 6.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2019, GDP grew at 1.3 percent, which is annual equivalent to 5.3 percent, and increased 6.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP contracted minus 10.0 percent in IQ2020, which is annual equivalent to minus 65.6 percent, and contracted minus 6.8 percent in IQ2020, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. GDP grew at 11.5 percent in IIQ2020, which is equivalent to 54.6 percent in a year and grew 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. There was decennial change in leadership in China (http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/special/18cpcnc/index.htm). Xi Jinping initiated a second term of leadership in Oct 2017 (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-10/25/c_136705344.htm). Growth rates of GDP of China in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier have been declining from 2011 to 2020.

• Euro Area. GDP fell 0.2 percent in the euro area in IQ2012 and decreased 0.5 in IQ2012 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP contracted 0.3 percent IIQ2012 and fell 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.1 percent and declined 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.4 percent relative to the prior quarter and fell 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, the GDP of the euro area fell 0.4 percent and decreased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2013, euro area GDP increased 0.3 percent and changed 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2013 and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The euro area’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 0.7 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The euro area’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2016 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, euro area GDP increased 0.7 percent and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2017 and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.8 percent and grew 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area grew 0.8 percent in IVQ2017 and increased 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent and grew 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area grew 0.3 percent in IIQ2018 and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2018 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2019 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2019 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2020, the GDP of the euro area decreased 3.7 percent and decreased 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area contracted 11.8 percent in IIQ2020 and contracted 14.7 percent relative to a year earlier.
• Germany. The GDP of Germany increased 0.2 percent in IQ2012 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier but 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier when adjusted for calendar effects (CA). In IIIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IVQ2012 and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, Germany’s GDP decreased 0.5 percent and fell 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 1.1 percent and grew 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2013 and grew 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 1.0 percent in IQ2014 and grew 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Germany’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.9 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany decreased 0.5 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2015 and grew 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and grew 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2015 and grew 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, the GDP of Germany increased 0.9 percent and grew 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 3.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of Germany increased 0.2 percent and grew 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2016 and grew 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, the GDP of Germany increased 1.2 percent and grew 3.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2017 and grew 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier and 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier adjusting for calendar effects (CA). In IIIQ2017, the GDP of Germany increased 0.9 percent and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier and 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2017, 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier and 3.6 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany decreased 0.2 percent in IQ2018 and grew 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier and 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2018, 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier and 2.0 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany decreased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2018, increasing 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier and 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2018, increasing 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier and 0.3 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany increased 0.6 percent in IQ2019, increasing 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier and increasing 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP contracted 0.3 percent in IIQ2019, decreased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier and increased 0.1 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2019, increasing 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier and increasing 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2019, increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP decreased 2.0 percent in IQ2020, decreased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier and decreased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany decreased 9.7 percent in IIQ2020, decreased 11.3 percent relative to a year earlier and decreased 11.3 percent relative to a year earlier (CA).
• United States. Growth of US GDP in IQ2012 was 0.8 percent, at SAAR of 3.2 percent and higher by 2.7 percent relative to IQ2011. US GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2012, 1.7 percent at SAAR and 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, US GDP grew 0.1 percent, 0.5 percent at SAAR and 2.5 percent relative to IIIQ2011. In IVQ2012, US GDP grew 0.1 percent, 0.5 percent at SAAR and 1.5 percent relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, US GDP grew at 3.6 percent SAAR, 0.9 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.6 percent relative to the same quarter in 2012. In IIQ2013, US GDP grew at 0.5 percent in SAAR, 0.1 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.3 percent relative to IIQ2012. US GDP grew at 3.2 percent in SAAR in IIIQ2013, 0.8 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.9 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/10/dollar-carry-trades-induced-from-zero.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/d-ollar-devaluation-and-yuan.html). In IVQ2013, US GDP grew 0.8 percent at 3.2 percent SAAR and 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, US GDP decreased 0.3 percent, increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier and fell 1.1 percent at SAAR. In IIQ2014, US GDP increased 1.4 percent at 5.5 percent SAAR and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP increased 1.2 percent in IIIQ2014 at 5.0 percent SAAR and increased 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, US GDP increased 0.6 percent at SAAR of 2.3 percent and increased 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.9 percent in IQ2015 at SAAR of 3.8 percent and grew 4.1 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.7 percent in IIQ2015, increasing 0.7 percent in the quarter and 3.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 at SAAR of 1.5 percent and grew 2.6 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 0.6 percent in IVQ2015, increasing 0.2 percent in the quarter and 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, US GDP grew 0.6 percent at SAAR of 2.3 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 1.3 percent in IIQ2016, increasing 0.3 percent in the quarter and 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, US GDP grew 0.5 percent at SAAR of 2.2 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.5 percent in IVQ2016, increasing 0.6 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, US GDP grew 0.6 percent at SAAR of 2.3 percent and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 1.7 percent in IIQ2017, increasing 0.4 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, US GDP grew 0.7 percent at SAAR of 2.9 percent and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 3.9 percent in IVQ2017, increasing 1.0 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, US GDP grew at SAAR of 3.8 percent, increasing 0.9 percent in the quarter, and increasing 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.7 percent in IIQ2018, increasing 0.7 percent in the quarter, and increasing 3.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.1 percent, increasing 0.5 percent in the quarter, and increasing 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 1.3 percent in IVQ2018, increasing 0.3 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.9 percent, increasing 0.7 percent in the quarter and increasing 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 1.5 percent in IIQ2019, increasing 0.4 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.6 percent, increasing 0.6 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.4 percent in IVQ2019, increasing 0.6 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2020, US GDP contracted at SAAR of minus 5.0 percent, decreasing 1.3 percent in the quarter, and increasing 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2020, US GDP contracted at SAAR of minus 31.4 percent, decreasing 9.0 percent in the quarter and decreasing 9.0 percent relative to a year earlier.
• United Kingdom. In IQ2012, UK GDP increased 0.7 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, GDP fell 0.1 percent relative to IQ2012 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, GDP increased 1.2 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier. In IVQ2012, GDP fell 0.2 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Fiscal consolidation in an environment of weakening economic growth is much more challenging. GDP increased 1.4 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 0.5 percent in IQ2013 relative to IVQ2012. In IIQ2013, GDP increased 0.8 percent and 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.9 percent in IIIQ2013 and 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IVQ2013 and 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, GDP increased 0.8 percent and 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2014 and 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2014 and 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, GDP increased 0.6 percent and 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2015 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2016 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2016 and grew 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IVQ2016 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2017 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, GDP increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2017 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2018 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, GDP increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2018 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, GDP increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2019 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, GDP increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2019 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2020, GDP decreased 2.5 percent and decreased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP decreased 19.8 percent in IIQ2020 and decreased 21.5 percent relative to a year earlier.
• Italy. The GDP of Italy contracted 13.0 percent in IIQ2020 and contracted 18.0 percent relative to a year earlier in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Italy’s GDP contracted 5.5 percent in IQ2020 and decreased 5.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy decreased 0.2 percent in IVQ2019 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2019 and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2019, Italy’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2019 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2018, the GDP of Italy increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2018 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2018, the GDP of Italy increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IQ2018 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, the GDP of Italy increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2017 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2017, the GDP of Italy increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, the GDP of Italy increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2016, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2015, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IVQ2014 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.1 percent in IQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IVQ2013 and fell 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2013 and fell 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.9 percent in IQ2013 and declined 2.9 percent relative to IQ2013. GDP had been growing during six consecutive quarters but at very low rates from IQ2010 to IIQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell in seven consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at increasingly higher rates of contraction from 0.5 percent in IIIQ2011 to 0.9 percent in IVQ2011, 1.2 percent in IQ2012, 0.7 percent in IIQ2012 and 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012. The pace of decline accelerated to minus 0.8 percent in IVQ2012 and minus 0.9 percent in IQ2013. GDP contracted cumulatively 5.4 percent in seven consecutive quarterly contractions from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at the annual equivalent rate of minus 3.1 percent. The year-on-year rate has fallen from 2.1 percent in IVQ2010 to minus 3.2 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.9 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.2 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.5 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.9 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.4 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.5 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.3 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IIIQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.3 percent in IVQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.8 percent in IIQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IIIQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.9 percent in IVQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.4 percent in IQ2018 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.1 percent in IIQ2018 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2018 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2018 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2019 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2019 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIIQ2019 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2019 relative to a year earlier. GDP contracted 5.6 percent in IQ2020 relative to a year earlier and contracted 18.0 percent in IIQ2020 relative to a year earlier in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Istat updated the national accounts of Italy, using 2015 base, with the release of Oct 2, 2020 (https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/247904). Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/), the GDP of Italy (using the base of 2010) in IIQ2020 of €354,678.7 million (https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/246771) is lower by 21.7 percent relative to €452,802.5 million in IQ2008 (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/). Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/), the GDP of Italy increased from €392,018.4 million in IQ1998 to €452,802.5 million in IQ2008 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.5 percent. The fiscal adjustment of Italy is significantly more difficult with the economy not growing especially on the prospects of increasing government revenue. The strategy is for reforms to improve productivity, facilitating future fiscal consolidation.
• France. France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2012 and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IIQ2012 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2013 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2013 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2013 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2015, France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2015, the GDP of France increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France decreased 0.2 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, the GDP of France increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2017, the GDP of France increased 0.7 percent and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIIQ2017 and increased 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, the GDP of France increased 0.8 percent and increased 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2018 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2018, the GDP of France increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2018 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2018, the GDP of France increased 0.7 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2019 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2019, the GDP of France increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2019 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2019, the GDP of France decreased 0.2 percent and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 5.9 percent in IQ2020 and decreased 5.7 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 13.8 percent in IIQ2020 and decreased 18.9 percent relative to a year earlier.

Table V-3, Percentage Changes of GDP Quarter on Prior Quarter and on Same Quarter Year Earlier, ∆%

	IQ2012/IVQ2011	IQ2012/IQ2011
USA	QOQ: 0.8        SAAR: 3.2	2.7
Japan	QOQ: 1.2 SAAR: 4.9	3.1
China	1.9 AE 7.8	8.1
Euro Area	-0.2	-0.5
Germany	0.2	1.5 CA 1.0
France	0.1	0.7
Italy	-1.2	-2.4
United Kingdom	0.7	1.3
	IIQ2012/IQ2012	IIQ2012/IIQ2011
USA	QOQ: 0.4         SAAR: 1.7	2.4
Japan	QOQ: -0.7 SAAR: -2.9	2.9
China	2.1 AE 8.7	7.6
Euro Area	-0.3	-0.8
Germany	0.2	0.4 CA 0.9
France	-0.2	0.4
Italy	-0.7	-3.2
United Kingdom	-0.1	1.0
	IIIQ2012/ IIQ2012	IIIQ2012/ IIIQ2011
USA	QOQ: 0.1  SAAR: 0.5	2.5
Japan	QOQ: –0.4 SAAR: –1.5	-0.1
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.5
Euro Area	-0.1	-1.0
Germany	0.3	-0.1
France	0.2	0.3
Italy	-0.5	-3.3
United Kingdom	1.2	1.9
	IVQ2012/IIIQ2012	IVQ2012/IVQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.5	1.5
Japan	QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.1	0.3
China	2.0 AE 8.2	8.1
Euro Area	-0.4	-1.0
Germany	-0.4	-0.1
France	-0.1	0.0
Italy	-0.8	-3.2
United Kingdom	-0.2	1.5
	IQ2013/IVQ2012	IQ2013/IQ2012
United States	QOQ: 0.9 SAAR: 3.6	1.6
Japan	QOQ: 1.2 SAAR: 5.0	0.4
China	1.9 AE 7.8	7.9
Euro Area	-0.4	-1.2
Germany	-0.5	-1.5
France	0.0	-0.1
Italy	-0.9	-2.9
UK	0.5	1.4
	IIQ2013/IQ2013	IIQ2013/IIQ2012
USA	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.5	1.3
Japan	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.1	1.9
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.6
Euro Area	0.5	-0.4
Germany	1.1	0.8
France	0.7	0.8
Italy	0.0	-2.2
UK	0.8	2.4
	IIIQ2013/IIQ2013	III/Q2013/IIIQ2012
USA	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.2	1.9
Japan	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.4	3.0
China	2.1 AE 8.7	7.9
Euro Area	0.3	0.1
Germany	0.5	1.2
France	0.0	0.6
Italy	0.2	-1.5
UK	0.9	2.1
	IVQ2013/IIIQ2013	IVQ2013/IVQ2012
USA	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.2	2.6
Japan	QOQ: 0.0 SAAR: -0.1	2.7
China	1.6 AE 6.6	7.7
Euro Area	0.2	0.7
Germany	0.3	1.2
France	0.5	1.2
Italy	-0.2	-0.9
UK	0.6	2.9
	IQ2014/IVQ2013	IQ2014/IQ2013
USA	QOQ -0.3 SAAR -1.1	1.4
Japan	QOQ: 1.0 SAAR: 4.0	3.0
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.5
Euro Area	0.5	1.6
Germany	1.0	3.2
France	0.1	1.3
Italy	0.1	0.1
UK	0.8	3.2
	IIQ2014/IQ2014	IIQ2014/IIQ2013
USA	QOQ 1.4 SAAR 5.5	2.7
Japan	QOQ: -1.9 SAAR: -7.5	-0.1
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.6
Euro Area	0.2	1.2
Germany	0.0	1.4
France	0.1	0.7
Italy	0.0	0.1
UK	0.7	3.0
	IIIQ2014/IIQ2014	IIIQ2014/IIIQ2013
USA	QOQ: 1.2 SAAR: 5.0	3.1
Japan	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.4	-0.9
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.2
Euro Area	0.5	1.4
Germany	0.5	1.8
France	0.4	1.1
Italy	0.1	0.0
UK	0.6	2.7
	IVQ2014/IIIQ2014	IVQ2014/IVQ2013
USA	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.3	2.9
Japan	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.0	-0.5
China	1.7 AE 7.0	7.3
Euro Area	0.4	1.5
Germany	0.9	2.4
France	0.1	0.8
Italy	-0.2	0.0
UK	0.6	2.6
	IQ2015/IVQ2014	IQ2015/IQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.9 SAAR: 3.8	4.1
Japan	QOQ: 1.4 SAAR: 5.6	0.0
China	1.9 AE 7.8	7.1
Euro Area	0.7	1.7
Germany	-0.5	1.0
France	0.5	1.2
Italy	0.2	0.1
UK	0.5	2.4
	IIQ2015/IQ2015	IIQ2015/IIQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.7	3.5
Japan	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.4	2.2
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.1
Euro Area	0.4	2.0
Germany	0.7	1.5
France	0.0	1.0
Italy	0.4	0.5
UK	0.7	2.5
	IIIQ2015/IIQ2015	IIIQ2015/IIIQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.5	2.6
Japan	QOQ: -0.1 SAAR: -0.2	1.9
China	1.7 AE 7.0	7.0
Euro Area	0.4	2.0
Germany	0.4	1.5
France	0.3	1.0
Italy	0.2	0.6
UK	0.4	2.3
	IVQ2015/IIIQ2015	IVQ2015/IVQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.2 SAAR: 0.6	2.2
Japan	QOQ: -0.4 SAAR: -1.5	0.9
China	1.6 AE 6.6	6.9
Euro Area	0.4	2.0
Germany	0.5	1.9
France	0.1	1.0
Italy	0.5	1.4
UK	0.7	2.4
	IQ2016/IVQ2015	IQ2016/IQ2015
USA	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.3	1.8
Japan	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.1	0.2
China	1.5 AE 6.1	6.9
Euro Area	0.6	1.9
Germany	0.9	2.2
France	0.7	1.1
Italy	0.3	1.5
UK	0.2	2.0
	IIQ2016/IQ2016	IIQ2016/IIQ2015
USA	QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.3	1.4
Japan	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.5	0.2
China	1.8 AE 7.4	6.8
Euro Area	0.3	1.7
Germany	0.4	3.6
France	-0.2	0.9
Italy	0.2	1.3
UK	0.5	1.7
	IIIQ2016/IIQ2016	IIIQ2016/IIIQ2015
USA	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.2	1.6
Japan	QOQ: 0.2 SAAR: 0.9	0.5
China	1.7 AE 7.0	6.8
Euro Area	0.5	1.7
Germany	0.2	1.9
France	0.2	0.8
Italy	0.5	1.6
UK	0.3	1.6
	IVQ2016/IIIQ2016	IVQ2016/IVQ2015
USA	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.5	2.1
Japan	QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.2	1.2
China	1.6 AE 6.6	6.9
Euro Area	0.8	2.0
Germany	0.4	1.4
France	0.6	1.3
Italy	0.3	1.3
UK	0.6	1.6
	IQ2017/IVQ2016	IQ2017/IQ2016
USA	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.3	2.1
Japan	QOQ: 1.2 SAAR: 4.8	1.8
China	1.7 AE 7.0	7.0
Euro Area	0.7	2.2
Germany	1.2	3.6
France	0.8	1.4
Italy	0.5	1.6
UK	0.5	1.9
	IIQ2017/IQ2017	IIQ2017/IIQ2016
USA	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.7	2.2
Japan	QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.2	1.9
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.0
Euro Area	0.7	2.7
Germany	0.7	1.2 CA 2.5
France	0.7	2.4
Italy	0.4	1.8
UK	0.3	1.7
	IIIQ2017/IIQ2017	IIIQ2017/IIIQ2016
USA	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.9	2.4
Japan	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.3	2.4
China	1.6 AE 6.6	6.9
Euro Area	0.8	3.0
Germany	0.9	2.7 CA 3.1
France	0.7	2.8
Italy	0.4	1.6
UK	0.4	1.8
	IVQ2017/IIIQ2017	IVQ2017/IVQ2016
USA	QOQ: 1.0 SAAR: 3.9	2.7
Japan	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 1.9	2.5
China	1.6 AE 6.6	6.8
Euro Area	0.8	3.1
Germany	0.8	3.0 CA 3.6
France	0.8	3.1
Italy	0.6	1.9
UK	0.4	1.6
	IQ2018/IVQ2017	IQ2018/IQ2017
USA	QOQ: 0.9 SAAR: 3.8	3.1
Japan	QOQ: -0.4 SAAR: -1.7	0.9
China	1.9 AE 7.8	6.9
Euro Area	0.2	2.5
Germany	-0.2	1.5 CA 2.2
France	0.1	2.4
Italy	0.0	1.4
UK	0.1	1.1
	IIQ2018/IQ2018	IIQ2018/IIQ2017
USA	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.7	3.3
Japan	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.5	1.0
China	1.6 AE 6.6	6.9
Euro Area	0.3	2.2
Germany	0.5	2.4 CA 2.0
France	0.2	1.9
Italy	0.1	1.1
UK	0.4	1.2
	IIIQ2018/IIQ2018	IIIQ2018/IIIQ2017
USA	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.1	3.1
Japan	QOQ -0.8 SAAR: -3.2	-0.3
China	1.5 AE 6.1	6.7
Euro Area	0.1	1.5
Germany	-0.3	0.7 CA 0.7
France	0.4	1.6
Italy	-0.1	0.6
UK	0.6	1.4
	IVQ2018/IIIQ2018	IVQ2018/IVQ2017
USA	QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.3	2.5
Japan	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.3	-0.4
China	1.3 AE 5.3	6.5
Euro Area	0.5	1.1
Germany	0.3	0.5 CA 0.3
France	0.7	1.4
Italy	0.2	0.2
UK	0.2	1.2
	IQ2019/IV2018	IQ2019/IQ2018
USA	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.9	2.3
Japan	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.8	0.8
China	2.0 AE 8.2	6.4
Euro Area	0.5	1.5
Germany	0.6	1.0 CA 1.1
France	0.5	1.8
Italy	0.2	0.4
UK	0.6	1.7
	IIQ2019/IQ2019	IIQ2019/IIQ2018
USA	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.5	2.0
Japan	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.6	0.9
China	1.2 AE 4.9	6.2
Euro Area	0.1	1.2
Germany	-0.3	-0.5 CA 0.1
France	0.2	1.8
Italy	0.1	0.4
UK	0.0	1.3
	IIIQ2019/IIQ2019	IIIQ2019/IIIQ2018
USA	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR 2.6	2.1
Japan	QOQ: 0.0 SAAR: 0.2	1.7
China	1.4 AE 5.7	6.0
Euro Area	0.3	1.4
Germany	0.3	1.2 CA 0.7
France	0.2	1.6
Italy	0.0	0.5
UK	0.3	1.0
	IVQ2019/IIIQ2019	IVQ2019/IVQ2018
USA	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.4	2.3
Japan	QOQ: -1.8 SAAR: -7.0	-0.7
China	1.3 AE 5.3	6.0
Euro Area	0.1	1.0
Germany	0.0	0.2 CA 0.4
France	-0.2	0.8
Italy	-0.2	0.1
UK	0.1	1.0
	IQ2020/IVQ2019	IQ2020/IQ2019
USA	QOQ: -1.3 SAAR: -5.0	0.3
Japan	QOQ: -0.6 SAAR: -2.3	-1.8
China	-10.0 (-65.6)	-6.8
Euro Area	-3.7	-3.2
Germany	-2.0	-1.8 CA -2.2
France	-5.9	-5.7
Italy	-5.5	-5.6
UK	-2.5	-2.1
	IIQ2020/IQ2020	IIQ2020/IIQ2019
USA	QOQ: -9.1 SAAR: -31.7	-9.1
Japan	QOQ: -7.9 SAAR: -28.1	-9.9
China	11.5 (54.6)	3.2
Euro Area	-11.8	-14.7
Germany	-9.7	-11.3 CA -11.3
France	-13.8	-18.9
Italy	-13.0	-18.0
UK	-19.8	-21.5

QOQ: Quarter relative to prior quarter; SAAR: seasonally adjusted annual rate

Source: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.bls.gov/bls/other.htm https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/related-sites.html

Table V-4 provides two types of data: growth of exports and imports in the latest available months and in the past 12 months; and contributions of net trade (exports less imports) to growth of real GDP.

• Japan. Japan provides the most worrisome data (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/global-decline-of-values-of-financial.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/07/valuation-of-risk-financial-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/fluctuating-financial-asset-valuations.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/dollar-revaluation-squeezing-corporate.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/patience-on-interest-rate-increases.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/monetary-policy-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/valuation-risks-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/interest-rate-risks-world-inflation.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/global-financial-risk-world-inflation.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations_8763.html http://cmpass ocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/paring-quantitative-easing-policy-and_4699.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/thirty-one-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/12/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_24.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/11/contraction-of-united-states-real_25.html and for GDP http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what_13.html). In Sep 2020, Japan’s exports decreased 4.9 percent in 12 months while imports decreased 17.2 percent. The second part of Table V-4 shows that net trade added 0.8 percent in IQ2012, deducting 2.0 percent in IIQ2012. Net trade deducted 1.9 percent in IIIQ2012. Net traded deducted 0.4 percent in IVQ2012. Net trade added 1.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2013 but deducted 0.1 percentage points in IIQ2013, deducting 1.3 percentage points in IIIQ2013 and 2.2 percentage points in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2014. Net trade added 4.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2014 and deducted 0.3 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 1.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2014. Net trade contributed 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2015 and deducted 0.5-percentage points in IIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2015. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2015 and added 1.4 percentage points in IQ2016. Net trade contributed 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade added 1.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2016 and contributed 1.5 percentage points in IVQ2016.  Net trade contributed 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017 and deducted 0.9 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade contributed 2.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017 and deducted 0.3 percentage-point in IVQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018 and contributed 0.0 percentage points in IIQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018 and deducted 2.0 percentage points in IVQ2018. Net trade contributed 2.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2019 with export contraction deducting 1.3 percent and import contraction contributing 3.4 percent. Net trade deducted 1.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2019. Net trade deducted 1.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade contributed 2.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.9 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2020 with export contraction deducting 3.8 percentage points and import contraction adding 2.9 percentage points. Net trade deducted 0.9 percentage points in IQ2020 with export contraction deducting 3.8 percentage points and import contraction adding 2.9 percentage points. Net trade deducted 10.9 percentage points in IIQ2020 with export contraction deducting 11.3 percentage points and import contraction contributing 0.4 percentage points.
• China. The exports of China increased 9.9 percent in Sep 2020 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 13.2 percent.

• Germany. Germany’s exports increased 2.4 percent in the month of Aug 2020 and decreased 10.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2020. Germany’s imports increased 5.8 percent in the month of Aug 2020 and decreased 7.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Au 2020. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to growth of GDP in IQ2012, contributed 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2012, contributed 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2012, deducted 0.5 percentage points in IVQ2012, deducted 0.3 percentage points in IQ2013 and deducted 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded deducted 0.0 percentage points from Germany’s GDP growth in IIIQ2013 and added 0.9 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2014 and added 0.7 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points in IVQ2015 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade added 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2017. Net trade added 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018 and deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2019. Net traded added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.8 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2020. Net trade deducted 2.8 percentage points in IIQ2020.
• United Kingdom. Net trade contributed 0.7 percentage points in IIQ2013. In IIIQ2013, net trade deducted 1.7 percentage points from UK growth. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to UK value added in IVQ2013. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to UK value added in IQ2014 and 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2014 and added 0.0 percentage points in IVQ2014. Net traded deducted 0.4 percentage points from growth in IQ2015. Net trade added 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.1-percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 1.8 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade added 1.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2016. Net trade added 0.33 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017 and contributed 0.01 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.11 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.28 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade added 0.42 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.48 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.45 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.29 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2018. Net trade deducted 2.12 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2019. Net trade contributed 2.81 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2019. Net trade contributed 1.13 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade contributed 0.41 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.48 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2020. Net trade contributed 3.54 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2020.
• France. France’s exports decreased 0.6 percent in Aug 2020 while imports increased 1.1 percent. France’s exports decreased 17.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2020 and imports decreased 10.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Net traded added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IIIQ2012 and 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IQ2013 and added 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2013, deducting 1.7 percentage points in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IVQ2013 and deducted 0.1 percentage points in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IIQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to France’s GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.6 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015 and deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.3 percentage points to GDP in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP in IIIQ2016 and added 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP in IQ2017 and added 0.9 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade added 0.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade added 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to GDP in IVQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP in IQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ219. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points in IQ2020. Net trade deducted 2.5 percentage points in IIQ2020.
• United States. US exports increased 2.2 percent in Aug 2020 and goods exports decreased 16.1 percent in Jan-Aug 2020 relative to a year earlier. Imports increased 3.2 percent in Aug 2020 and goods imports decreased 11.2 percent in Jan-Aug 2020 relative to a year earlier. Net trade added 0.27 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2012 and deducted 0.08 percentage points in IIIQ2012, adding 0.57 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade added 0.40 percentage points to US GDP growth in IQ2013 and deducted 0.33 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded subtracted 0.14 percentage points from US GDP growth in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 1.23 percentage points to US GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 1.11 percentage points from US GDP growth in IQ2014 and deducted 0.46 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade added 0.10 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2014. Net trade deducted 1.05 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 1.38 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.25 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.97 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.22 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.05 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.22 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade added 0.08 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade deducted 1.13 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2016.  Net trade added 0.36 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017.  Net trade deducted 0.39 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2017. Net trade added 0.08 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.49 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade added 0.29 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018. Net trade added 0.25 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.83 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018, deducting 0.27 percentage points in IVQ2018. Net trade added 0.55 percentage points in IQ2019, deducting 0.79 percentage points in IIQ2019. Net trade added 0.04 percentage points in IIIQ2019. Net trade added 1.52 percentage points in IVQ2019, adding 1.13 percentage points in IQ2020. Net trade added 0.62 percentage points in IIQ2020.

Industrial production decreased 0.6 percent in Aug 2020 and increased 0.4 percent in Aug 2020 after increasing 4.2 percent in Jul 2020, with all data seasonally adjusted. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System conducted the annual revision of industrial production released on Mar 27, 2019 (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/revisions/Current/DefaultRev.htm):

“The Federal Reserve has revised its index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization.[1] On net, the revisions to the growth rates for total IP for recent years were small and positive, with the estimates for 2016 and 2017 a bit higher and the estimates for 2015 and 2018 slightly lower.[2] Total IP is still reported to have increased from the end of the recession in mid-2009 through late 2014 before declining in 2015 and rebounding in mid-2016. Subsequently, the index advanced around 7 1/2 percent over 2017 and 2018.

Capacity for total industry expanded modestly in each year from 2015 to 2017 before advancing 1 1/2 percent in 2018; it is expected to advance about 2 percent in 2019. Revisions for recent years were very small and showed slightly less expansion in most years relative to earlier reports.

In the fourth quarter of 2018, capacity utilization for total industry stood at 79.4 percent, about 3/4 percentage point above its previous estimate and about 1/2 percentage point below its long-run (1972–2018) average. The utilization rate in 2017 is also higher than its previous estimate.”

The report of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System states (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/default.htm):

“Industrial production fell 0.6 percent in September, its first decline after four consecutive months of gains. The index increased at an annual rate of 39.8 percent for the third quarter as a whole. Although production has recovered more than half of its February to April decline, the September reading was still 7.1 percent below its pre-pandemic February level. Manufacturing output decreased 0.3 percent in September and was 6.4 percent below February's level. The output of utilities dropped 5.6 percent, as demand for air conditioning fell by more than usual in September. Mining production increased 1.7 percent in September; even so, it was 14.8 percent below a year earlier. At 101.5 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 7.3 percent lower in September than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.5 percentage point in September to 71.5 percent, a rate that is 8.3 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2019) average but 7.3 percentage points above its low in April.”

Manufacturing decreased 22.3 percent from the peak in Jun 2007 to the trough in Apr 2009 and increased 18.3 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Dec 2019. Manufacturing increased 12.8 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Sep 2020. Manufacturing in Sep 2020 is lower by 12.3 percent relative to the peak in Jun 2007. The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. US economic growth has been at only 1.2 percent on average in the cyclical expansion in the 44 quarters from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2020 and in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Boskin (2010Sep) measures that the US economy grew at 6.2 percent in the first four quarters and 4.5 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the second quarter of 1975; and at 7.7 percent in the first four quarters and 5.8 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the first quarter of 1983 (Professor Michael J. Boskin, Summer of Discontent, Wall Street Journal, Sep 2, 2010 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882304575465462926649950.html). There are new calculations using the revision of US GDP and personal income data since 1929 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (http://bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) and the third estimate of GDP for IIQ2020 (https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2020-09/gdp2q20_3rd.pdf). The average of 7.7 percent in the first four quarters of major cyclical expansions is in contrast with the rate of growth in the first four quarters of the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010 of only 2.8 percent obtained by dividing GDP of $15,557.3 billion in IIQ2010 by GDP of $15,134.1 billion in IIQ2009 {[($15,557.3/$15,134.1) -1]100 = 2.8%], or accumulating the quarter on quarter growth rates (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/10/dollar-carry-trades-induced-from-zero.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/d-ollar-devaluation-and-yuan.html). The expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1986 was at the average annual growth rate of 5.7 percent, 5.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1986, 5.1 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1986, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1989, 4.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1989, 4.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1989, 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1989. 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1990, 4.4 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1990, 4.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1990, 4.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1990, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ2019, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1993 and at 7.9 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/10/dollar-carry-trades-induced-from-zero.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/d-ollar-devaluation-and-yuan.html). The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dates a contraction of the US from IQ1990 (Jul) to IQ1991 (Mar) (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html). The expansion lasted until another contraction beginning in IQ2001 (Mar). US GDP contracted 1.3 percent from the pre-recession peak of $8983.9 billion of chained 2009 dollars in IIIQ1990 to the trough of $8865.6 billion in IQ1991 (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IIQ2020 and in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event would have accumulated to 44.7 percent. GDP in IIQ2020 would be $22,807.6 billion (in constant dollars of 2012) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $5505.1 billion than actual $17,302.5 billion. There are more than five trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 32.7 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 18.9 percent of the effective labor force with the largest part originating in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/10/increasingvaluations-of-risk-financial.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/09/exchange-rate-fluctuations-1.html). Unemployment is decreasing while employment is increasing in initial adjustment of the lockdown of economic activity in the global recession resulting from the COVID-19 event (https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-september-2020.htm). US GDP in IIQ2020 is 24.1 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $15,762.0 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $17,302.5 billion in IIQ2020 or 9.8 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 0.7 percent. Professor John H. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. Cochrane (2016May02) measures GDP growth in the US at average 3.5 percent per year from 1950 to 2000 and only at 1.76 percent per year from 2000 to 2015 with only at 2.0 percent annual equivalent in the current expansion. Cochrane (2016May02) proposes drastic changes in regulation and legal obstacles to private economic activity. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 2.9 percent per year from Sep 1919 to Sep 2020. Growth at 2.9 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 155.9263 in Sep 2020. The actual index NSA in Sep 2020 is 98.5100 which is 36.8 percent below trend. The underperformance of manufacturing in Mar-Aug 2020 originates partly in the earlier global recession augmented by the current global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19. Manufacturing grew at the average annual rate of 3.3 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2006. Growth at 3.3 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 163.8334 in Sep 2020. The actual index NSA in Sep 2020 is 98.5100, which is 39.9 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 1.7 percent between Dec 1986 and Sep 2020. Using trend growth of 1.7 percent per year, the index would increase to 134.2658 in Sep 2020. The output of manufacturing at 98.5100 in Sep 2020 is 26.6 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Using the NAICS (North American Industry Classification System), manufacturing output fell from the high of 110.5147 in Jun 2007 to the low of 86.3800 in Apr 2009 or 21.8 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased from 86.3800 in Apr 2009 to 99.7738 in Sep 2020 or 15.5 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased at the annual equivalent rate of 3.5 percent from Dec 1986 to Dec 2006. Growth at 3.5 percent would increase the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 165.4105 in Sep 2020. The NAICS index at 99.7738 in Sep 2020 is 39.7 below trend. The NAICS manufacturing output index grew at 1.7 percent annual equivalent from Dec 1999 to Dec 2006. Growth at 1.7 percent would raise the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 132.2561 in Sep 2020. The NAICS index at 99.7738 in Sep 2020 is 24.6 percent below trend under this alternative calculation.

Table V-4, Growth of Trade and Contributions of Net Trade to GDP Growth, ∆% and % Points

	Exports M ∆%	Exports 12 M ∆%	Imports M ∆%	Imports 12 M ∆%
USA	2.2 Aug SA	-16.1 Jan-Jun NSA	3.2 Aug SA	-11.2 Jan-Jun NSA
Japan		Sep 2020 -4.9 Aug 2020 -14.8 Jul 2020 -19.2 Jun 2020 -26.2 May 2020 -28.3 Apr 2020 -21.9 Mar 2020 -11.7 Feb 2020 -1.0 Jan 2020 -2.6 Dec 2019 -6.3 Nov 2019 -7.9 Oct 2019 -9.2 Sep 2019 -5.2 Aug 2019 -8.2 Jul 2019 -1.6 Jun 2019 -6.7 May 2019 -7.8 Apr 2019 -2.4 Mar 2019 -2.4 Feb 2019 -1.2 Jan 2019 -8.4 Dec 2018 -3.8 Nov 2018 0.1 Oct 2018 8.2 Sep 2018 -1.2 Aug 2018 6.6 Jul 2018 3.9 Jun 2018 6.7 May 2018 8.1 Apr 2018 7.8 Mar 2018 2.1 Feb 2018 1.8 Jan 2018 12.2 Dec 2017 9.3 Nov 2017 16.2 Oct 2017 14.0 Sep 2017 14.1 Aug 2017 18.1 Jul 2017 13.4 Jun 2017 9.7 May 2017 14.9 Apr 2017 7.5 Mar 2017 12.0 Feb 2017 11.3 Jan 2017 1.3 Dec 2016 5.4 Nov 2016 -0.4 Oct 2016 -10.3 Sep 2016 -6.9 Aug 2016 9.6 Jul 2016 -14.0 Jun 2016 -7.8 May 2016 -11.3 Apr 2016 -10.1 Mar 2016 -6.8 Feb 2016 -4.0 Jan 2016 -12.9 Dec 2015 -8.0 Nov 2015 -3.3 Oct 2015 -2.1 Sep 2015 0.6 Aug 3.1 Jul 2015 7.6 Jun 2015 9.5 May 2015 2.4 Apr 8.0 Mar 8.5 Feb 2.4 Jan 17.0 Dec 12.9 Nov 4.9 Oct 9.6 Sep 6.9 Aug -1.3 Jul 3.9 Jun -2.0 May 2014 -2.7 Apr 2014 5.1 Mar 2014 1.8 Feb 2014 9.5 Jan 2014 9.5 Dec 2013 15.3 Nov 2013 18.4 Oct 2013 18.6 Sep 2013 11.5 Aug 2013 14.7 Jul 2013 12.2 Jun 2013 7.4 May 2013 10.1 Apr 2013 3.8 Mar 2013 1.1 Feb 2013 -2.9 Jan 2013 6.4 Dec -5.8 Nov -4.1 Oct -6.5 Sep -10.3 Aug -5.8 Jul -8.1		Sep 2020 -17.2 Aug 2020 -20.8 Jul 2020 -22.3 Jun 2020 -14.4 May 2020 -26.2 Apr 2020 -7.2 Mar 2020 -5.0 Feb 2020 -14.0 Jan 2020 -3.6 Dec 2019 -4.9 Nov 2019 -15.7 Oct 2019 -14.8 Sep 2019 -1.5 Aug 2019 -12.0 Jul 2019 -1.2 Jun 2019 -5.2 May 2019 -1.5 Apr 2019 6.4 Mar 2019 1.1 Feb 2019 -6.7 Jan 2019 -0.6 Dec 2018 1.9 Nov 2018 12.5 Oct 2018 19.9 Sep 2018 7.0 Aug 2018 15.4 Jul 2018 14.6 Jun 2018 2.5 May 2018 14.0 Apr 2018 5.9 Mar 2018 -0.6 Feb 2018 16.6 Jan 2018 7.9 Dec 2017 14.9 Nov 2017 17.2 Oct 2017 18.9 Sep 2017 12.0 Aug 2017 15.2 Jul 2017 16.3 Jun 2017 15.5 May 2017 17.8 Apr 2017 15.1 Mar 2017 15.8 Feb 2017 1.2 Jan 2017 8.5 Dec 2016 -2.6 Nov 2016 -8.8 Oct 2016 -16.5 Sep 2016 -16.3 Aug 2016 -17.3 Jul 2016 -24.7 Jun 2016 -18.8 May 2016 -13.8 Apr 2016 -23.3 Mar 2016 -14.9 Feb 2016 -14.2 Jan 2016 -18.0 Dec 2015 -18.0 Nov 2015 -10.2 Oct 2015 -13.4 Sep 2015 -11.1 Aug -3.1 Jul 2015 -3.2 Jun 2015 -2.9 May 2015 -8.7 Apr -4.2 Mar -14.5 Feb -3.6 Jan -9.0 Dec 1.9 Nov -1.7 Oct 2.7 Sep 6.2 Aug -1.5 Jul 2.3 Jun 8.4 May 2014 -3.6 Apr 2013 3.4 Mar 2014 18.1 Feb 2014 9.0 Jan 2014 25.0 Dec 2013 24.7 Nov 2013 21.1 Oct 2013 26.1 Sep 2013 16.5 Aug 2013 16.0 Jul 2013 19.6 Jun 2013 11.8 May 2013 10.0 Apr 2013 9.4 Mar 2013 5.5 Feb 2013 7.3 Jan 2013 7.3 Dec 1.9 Nov 0.8 Oct -1.6 Sep 4.1 Aug -5.4 Jul 2.1
China	Jan-Dec 0.5 Jan-Dec 9.9 Jan-Dec 2017 7.9 Jan-Dec 2016 -7.7 Jan-Dec 2015 -2.8	2020 Sep 9.9 Aug 9.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 0.5 May -3.3 Apr 8.2 Mar -2.9 Jan-Feb -17.2 2019 Dec 7.6 Nov -1.1 Oct -0.9 Sep -3.2 Aug -1.0 Jul 3.3 Jun -1.3 May 1.1 Apr -2.7 Mar 14.2 Feb -20.7 Jan 9.3 2018 Dec -4.4 Nov 5.4 Oct 15.6 Sep 14.5 Aug 9.8 Jul 12.2 Jun 11.3 May 12.6 Apr 12.9 Mar -2.7 Feb 44.5 Jan 11.1 2017 Dec 10.9 Nov 12.3 Oct 6.9 Sep 8.1 Aug 5.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 11.3 May 8.7 Apr 8.0 Mar 16.4 Feb -1.3 Jan 7.9 2016 Dec 3.1 Nov 0.1 Oct -7.3 Sep -10.0 Aug -2.8 Jul -4.4 Jun -4.8 May -4.1 Apr -1.8 Mar 11.5 Feb -25.4 Jan -11.2 2015 -1.4 Dec -6.8 Nov -6.9 Oct -3.7 Sep -5.5 Aug -8.3 Jul 2.8 Jun -2.5 May -6.4 Apr -15.0 Mar 48.3 Feb -3.3 Jan 2014 9.7 Dec 4.7 Nov 11.6 Oct 15.3 Sep 9.4 Aug 14.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 7.0 May 0.9 Apr -6.6 Mar -18.1 Feb 10.6 Jan 2013 4.3 Dec 12.7 Nov 5.6 Oct -0.3 Sep 7.2 Aug 5.1 Jul -3.1 Jun 1.0 May 14.7 Apr 10.0 Mar 21.8 Feb 25.0 Jan	Jan-Dec -2.8 Jan-Dec 15.8 Jan-Dec 2017 15.9 Jan-Dec 2016 -5.5 Jan-Dec 2015 -14.1	2020 Sep 13.2 Aug -2.1 Jul 1.4 Jun 2.7 May -16.7 Apr -10.2 Mar -1.1 Jan-Feb -4.0 2019 Dec 16.3 Nov 0.3 Oct -6.4 Sep -8.5 Aug -5.6 Jul -5.3 Jun -7.3 May -8.5 Apr 4.0 Mar -7.6 Feb -5.2 Jan -1.5 2018 Dec -7.6 Nov 3.0 Oct 21.4 Sep 14.3 Aug 20.0 Jul 27.3 Jun 14.1 May 26.0 Apr 21.5 Mar 14.4 Feb 6.3 Jan 36.9 2017 Dec 4.5 Nov 17.7 Oct 17.2 Sep 18.7 Aug 13.3 Jul 11.0 Jun 17.2 May 14.8 Apr 11.9 Mar 20.3 Feb 38.1 Jan 16.7 2016 Dec -7.7 Nov 6.7 Oct -1.4 Sep -1.9 Aug 1.5 Jul -12.5 Jun -2.8 May -0.4 Apr -10.6 Mar -7.6 Feb -13.8 Jan -18.8 2015 -7.6 Dec -8.7 Nov -18.8 Oct -20.4 Sep -13.8 Aug -8.1 Jul -6.1 Jun -17.6 May -12.7 Mar -20.5 Feb -19.9 Jan 2014 -2.4 Dec -6.7 Nov 4.6 Oct 7.0 Sep -2.4 Aug -1.6 Jul 5.5 Jun -1.6 May -0.8 Apr -11.3 Mar 10.1 Feb 10.0 Jan 2013 8.3 Dec 5.3 Nov 7.6 Oct 7.4 Sep 7.0 Aug 10.9 Jul -0.7 Jun -0.3 May 16.8 Apr 14.1 Mar -15.2 Feb 28.8 Jan
Euro Area	-12.2 12-M Aug 2020	-12.4 Jan-Aug 2020	-13.5 12-M Jul 2020	-13.1 Jan- Aug 2020
Germany	2.4 Aug CSA	-10.2 Aug	5.8 Aug CSA	-7.9 Aug
France Aug	-0.6	-17.4	1.1	-10.5
Italy Aug	3.3	-7.0	5.1	-12.6
UK	1.5 Aug	-4.3	2.2 Aug	-12.5
Net Trade % Points GDP Growth	Points
USA	IIQ2020 0.62 IQ2020 1.13 IVQ2019 1.52 IIIQ2019 0.04 IIQ2019 -0.79 IQ2019 0.55 IVQ 2018 -0.27 IIIQ2018 -1.83 IIQ2018 0.25 IQ2018 0.29 IVQ2017 -0.49 IIIQ2017 0.08 IIQ2017 -0.39 IQ2017 0.36 IVQ2016 -1.13 IIIQ2016 0.08 IIQ2016 0.22 IQ2016 -0.05 IVQ2015 -0.22 IIIQ2015 -0.97 IIQ2015 -0.25 IQ2015 -1.38 IVQ2014 -1.05 IIIQ2014 0.10 IIQ2014 -0.46 IQ2014 -1.11 IVQ2013 1.23 IIIQ2013 -0.14 IIQ2013 -0.33 IQ2013 0.40 IVQ2012 +0.57 IIIQ2012 -0.08 IIQ2012 0.27 IQ2012 0.00
Japan	0.8 IQ2012 -2.0 IIQ2012 -1.9 IIIQ2012 -0.4 IVQ2012 1.5 IQ2013 -0.1 IIQ2013 -1.3 IIIQ2013 -2.2 IVQ2013 -0.7 IQ2014 4.0 IIQ2014 -0.3 IIIQ2014 1.5 IVQ2014 0.2 IQ2015 -0.5 IIQ2015 -0.6 IIIQ2015 0.1 IVQ2015 1.4 IQ2016 0.5 IIQ2016 1.2 IIIQ2016 1.5 IVQ2016 0.4 IQ2017 -0.9 IIQ2017 2.1 IIIQ2017 -0.3 IVQ2017 0.3 IQ2018 0.0 IIQ2018 -0.7 IIIQ2018 -2.0 IVQ2018 2.1 IQ2019 -1.2 IIQ2019 -1.0 IIIQ2019 2.1 IVQ2019 -0.9 IQ2020 -10.9 IIQ2020
Germany	IQ2012 0.8 IIQ2012 0.3 IIIQ2012 0.4 IVQ2012 -0.5 IQ2013 -0.3 IIQ2013 -0.3 IIIQ2013 0.0 IVQ2013 0.9 IQ2014 -0.1 IIQ2014 -0.3 IIIQ2014 0.7 IVQ2014 0.1 IQ2015 -0.4 IIQ2015 0.6 IIIQ2015 -0.4 IVQ2015 -0.6 IQ2016 -0.4 IIQ2016 0.7 IIIQ2016 -0.2 IVQ2016 -0.7 IQ2017 0.7 IIQ2017 -0.2 IIIQ2017 0.5 IVQ2017 0.1 IQ2018 0.1 IIQ2018 -0.2 IIIQ2018 -1.0 IVQ2018 -0.2 IQ2019 0.3 IIQ2019 -0.6 IIIQ2019 0.6 IVQ2019 -0.3 IQ2020 -0.8 IIQ2020 -2.8
France	0.1 IIIQ2012 0.1 IVQ2012 -0.1 IQ2013 0.3 IIQ2013 -1.7 IIIQ2013 0.1 IVQ2013 -0.1 IQ2014 -0.2 IIQ2014 -0.2 IIIQ2014 0.2 IVQ2014 -0.2 IQ2015 0.4 IIQ2015 -0.6 IIIQ2015 -0.7 IVQ2015 -0.1 IQ2016 0.3 IIQ2016 -0.6 IIIQ2016 0.1 IVQ2016 -0.6 IQ2017 0.9 IIQ2017 -0.3 IIIQ2017 0.6 IVQ2017 0.0 IQ2018 0.0 IIQ2018 0.3 IIIQ2018 0.2 IVQ2018 -0.3 IQ2019 -0.1 IIQ2019 -0.3 IIIQ2019 0.0 IVQ2019 -0.1 IQ2020 -2.5 IIQ2020
UK	0.7 IIQ2013 -1.7 IIIQ2013 0.1 IVQ2013 0.8 IQ2014 0.3 IIQ2014 -0.7 IIIQ2014 0.0 IVQ2014 -0.4 IQ2015 1.1 IIQ2015 -0.4 IIIQ2015 -0.2 IVQ2015 -0.1 IQ2016 0.1 IIQ2016 -1.8 IIIQ2016 1.7 IVQ2016 0.33 IQ2017 0.01 IIQ2017
	0.11
	IIIQ2017 -0.28 IVQ2017 0.42 IQ2018 -0.48 IIQ2018 0.45 IIIQ2018 -1.29 IVQ2018 -2.12 IQ2019 2.81 IIQ2019 1.13 IIIQ2019 0.41 IVQ2019 -0.48 IQ2020 3.54 IIQ2020

Sources: Country Statistical Agencies

https://www.bls.gov/bls/other.htm https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/related-sites.html

Table VA-1 provides the value of total sales of US business (manufacturers, retailers and merchant wholesalers) and monthly and 12-month percentage changes. Sales of manufacturers increased 0.3 percent in Aug and increased 4.7 percent in Jul, decreasing 5.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Sales of retailers increased 0.2 percent in Aug and increased 0.8 percent in Jul, increasing 2.8 percent in 12 months. Sales of merchant wholesalers increased 1.4 percent in Aug, increasing 4.8 percent in Jul and decreasing 5.4 percent in 12 months. Total business sales increased 0.6 percent in Aug and increased 3.4 percent in Jul, decreasing 2.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2020.

Table VA-1, US, Percentage Changes for Sales of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers

	Aug 20/Jul 20 ∆% SA	Aug 2020 Millions of Dollars NSA	Jul 20/ Jun 20 ∆% SA	Aug 20/ Aug 19 ∆% NSA
Total Business	0.6	1,464,129	3.4	-2.8
Manufacturers	0.3	490,971	4.7	-5.3
Retailers	0.2	490,780	0.8	2.8
Merchant Wholesalers	1.4	482,378	4.8	-5.4

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/mtis/index.html

Chart VA-1 of the US Census Bureau provides total US sales of manufacturing, retailers and wholesalers seasonally adjusted (SA) in millions of dollars. The series with adjustment evens fluctuations following seasonal patterns. There is sharp recovery from the global recession in a robust trend, which is mixture of price and quantity effects because data are not adjusted for price changes. There is stability in the final segment with subdued prices with data not adjusted for price changes. There is recovery in the recent segment with occasional vacillation. The data point in Apr 2020 shows sharp contraction followed by increase in May-Aug 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.

Chart VA-1, US, Total Business Sales of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, SA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 1992-Aug 2020

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/mtis/index.html

Chart VA-1A shows of the US Census Bureau provides total US sales of manufacturing, retailers and wholesalers seasonally adjusted (SA) in millions of dollars from Jan 2019 to Aug 2020, showing the deep contraction in Mar-Apr 2020 followed by increase in May-Aug in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.

Chart VA-1A, US, Total Business Sales of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, SA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 2019-Aug 2020

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/mtis/index.html

Chart VA-2 of the US Census Bureau provides total US sales of manufacturing, retailers and wholesalers not seasonally adjusted (NSA) in millions of dollars from Jan 1992 to Aug 2020. The series without seasonal adjustment shows sharp jagged behavior because of monthly fluctuations following seasonal patterns. There is sharp recovery from the global recession in a robust trend, which is mixture of price and quantity effects because data are not adjusted for price changes. There is stability in the final segment with monthly marginal weakness in data without adjustment for price changes with following recovery. There is sharp contraction in Mar-Apr 2020 followed by increase in May-Aug 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.

Chart VA-2, US, Total Business Sales of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, NSA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 1992-Aug 2020

Source: US Census Bureau

https://www.census.gov/mtis/index.html

Chart VA-2A of the US Census Bureau provides total US sales of manufacturing, retailers and wholesalers not seasonally adjusted (NSA) in millions of dollars from Jan 2019 to Aug 2020. There is sharp contraction in the data point in Apr 2020 followed by increase in May-Aug in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.

Chart VA-2A, US, Total Business Sales of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, NSA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 2019-Aug 2020

Source: US Census Bureau

https://www.census.gov/mtis/index.html

Businesses added cautiously to inventories to replenish stocks. Retailers’ inventories increased 0.4 percent in Aug 2020 and increased 1.2 percent in

Jul with decrease of 10.4 percent in 12 months, as shown in Table VA-2. Total business increased inventories 0.3 percent in Aug after increasing 0.1 percent in Jul and decreasing 5.5 percent in 12 months. Inventories sales/ratios of total business stabilized at a level close to 1.30 under careful management to avoid costs and risks, moving to 1.32 in Aug 2020. Inventory/sales ratios of manufacturers and retailers are higher than for merchant wholesalers. There is stability in inventory/sales ratios in individual months and relative to a year earlier with increase at the margin.

Table VA-2, US, Percentage Changes for Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers and Inventory/Sales Ratios

Inventory Change	Aug 20 Millions of Dollars NSA	Aug 20/Jul 20 ∆% SA	Jul 20/ Jun 2020 SA	Aug 20/Aug 19 ∆% NSA
Total Business	1,903,134	0.3	0.1	-5.5
Manufacturers	690,229	0.0	-0.6	-1.1
Retailers	586,524	0.4	1.2	-10.4
Merchant Wholesalers	626,381	0.4	-0.2	-5.2
Inventory/ Sales Ratio	Jul 20 Millions of Dollars NSA	Aug 2020 SA	Jul 2020 SA	Aug 2019 SA
Total Business	1,903,134	1.32	1.33	1.39
Manufacturers	690,229	1.43	1.43	1.39
Retailers	586,524	1.23	1.23	1.45
Merchant Wholesalers	626,381	1.31	1.32	1.35

US Census Bureau

https://www.census.gov/mtis/index.html

Chart VA-3 of the US Census Bureau provides total business inventories of manufacturers, retailers and merchant wholesalers seasonally adjusted (SA) in millions of dollars from Jan 1992 to Aug 2020. The impact of the two recessions of 2001 and IVQ2007 to IIQ2009 is evident in the form of sharp reductions in inventories. Inventories have surpassed the peak before the global recession. Data are not adjusted for price changes. Inventories decline in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.

Chart VA-3, US, Total Business Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, SA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 1992-Aug 2020

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/mtis/index.html

Chart VA-3A of the US Census Bureau provides total business inventories of manufacturers, retailers and merchant wholesalers seasonally adjusted (SA) in millions of dollars from Jan 2019 to Aug 2020. Inventories sink in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.

Chart VA-3A, US, Total Business Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, SA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 2019-Aug 2020

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/mtis/index.html

Chart VA-4 provides total business inventories of manufacturers, retailers and merchant wholesalers not seasonally adjusted (NSA) from Jan 1992 to Aug 2020 in millions of dollars. The recessions of 2001 and IVQ2007 to IIQ2009 are evident in the form of sharp reductions of inventories. There is sharp upward trend of inventory accumulation after both recessions. Total business inventories are higher than in the peak before the global recession. Inventories decrease in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.

Chart VA-4, US, Total Business Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, NSA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 1992-Aug 2020

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/mtis/index.html

Chart VA-4A provides total business inventories of manufacturers, retailers and merchant wholesalers not seasonally adjusted (SA) from Jan 1992 to Aug 2020 in millions of dollars. There is sharp contraction in Mar-Jun 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.

Chart VA-4A, US, Total Business Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, NSA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 2019-Aug 2020

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/mtis/index.html

Inventories follow business cycles. When recession hits sales inventories pile up, declining with expansion of the economy. In a fascinating classic opus, Lloyd Meltzer (1941, 129) concludes:

“The dynamic sequences (i) through (6) were intended to show what types of behavior are possible for a system containing a sales output lag. The following conclusions seem to be the most important:

(i) An economy in which business men attempt to recoup inventory losses will always undergo cyclical fluctuations when equilibrium is disturbed, provided the economy is stable.

This is the pure inventory cycle.

(2) The assumption of stability imposes severe limitations upon the possible size of the marginal propensity to consume, particularly if the coefficient of expectation is positive.

(3) The inventory accelerator is a more powerful de-stabilizer than the ordinary acceleration principle. The difference in stability conditions is due to the fact that the former allows for replacement demand whereas the usual analytical formulation of the latter does not. Thus, for inventories, replacement demand acts as a de-stabilizer. Whether it does so for all types of capital goods is a moot question, but I believe cases may occur in which it does not.

(4) Investment for inventory purposes cannot alter the equilibrium of income, which depends only upon the propensity to consume and the amount of non-induced investment.

(5) The apparent instability of a system containing both an accelerator and a coefficient of expectation makes further investigation of possible stabilizers highly desirable.”

Chart VA-5 shows the increase in the inventory/sales ratios during the recession of 2007-2009. The inventory/sales ratio fell during the expansions. The inventory/sales ratio declined to a trough in 2011, climbed and then stabilized at current levels in 2012, 2013 and 2015 with increase into 2015-2016 and then decreasing at the margin from 2016 into 2017-2019. Inventory/sales ratios increase sharply followed by deep decline in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.

Chart VA-5, Total Business Inventories/Sales Ratios 2011 to 2020

https://www.census.gov/mtis/img/mtisbrf.gif

Sales of retail and food services increased 1.9 percent in Sep 2020, after increasing 0.6 percent in Aug 2020 seasonally adjusted (SA), in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event, decreasing 0.8 percent in Jan-Sep 2020 relative to Jan-Sep 2019 not seasonally adjusted (NSA), as shown in Table VA-3. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales increased 1.5 percent in Sep 2020, increasing 0.5 percent in Aug 2020 SA and decreasing 0.6 percent NSA in Jan-Sep 2020 relative to a year earlier. Sales of motor vehicles and parts increased 3.6 percent in Sep 2020 after increasing 0.7 percent in Aug 2020 SA and decreasing 1.6 percent NSA in Jan-Sep 2020 relative to a year earlier. Gasoline station sales increased 1.5 percent SA in Sep 2020 after increasing 0.9 percent in Aug 2020 in oscillating prices of gasoline that are moderating, decreasing 16.4 percent in Jan-Sep 2020 relative to a year earlier.

Table VA-3, US, Percentage Change in Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, ∆%

	Sep ∆% SA	Aug ∆% SA	Jan-Sep 2020 Million Dollars NSA	Jan-Sep 2020 from Jan-Sep 2019 ∆% NSA
Retail and Food Services	1.9	0.6	4,528,768	-0.8
Excluding Motor Vehicles and Parts	1.5	0.5	3,614,124	-0.6
Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers	3.6	0.7	914,644	-1.6
Retail	1.9	0.2	4,070,864	2.0
Building Materials	0.6	2.4	327,895	12.8
Food and Beverage	0.0	-1.4	634,937	12.1
Grocery	0.1	-1.7	568,112	11.9
Health & Personal Care Stores	1.7	-0.5	266,986	0.7
Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores	11.0	1.4	125,556	-32.6
Gasoline Stations	1.5	0.9	314,599	-16.4
General Merchandise Stores	1.8	-0.4	525,493	2.8
Food Services & Drinking Places	2.1	4.3	457,904	-20.1

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

Chart VA-6 provides monthly percentage changes of sales of retail and food services. There is significant monthly volatility that prevents identification of clear trends. Sales collapsed in Mar-Apr 2020, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event, with sharp recovery in May-Sep 2020.

Chart VA-6, US, Monthly Percentage Change of Retail and Food Services Sales, Jan 1992-Sep 2020

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

Chart VA-6A provides monthly percentage changes of sales of retail and food services from Jan 2019 to Jun 2020.There is vertical increase in May-Sep 2020 after collapse in Feb-Apr 2020.

Chart VA-6A, US, Monthly Percentage Change of Retail and Food Services Sales, Jan 2019-Sep 2020

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

Chart VA-7 of the US Census Bureau provides total sales of retail trade and food services seasonally adjusted (SA) from Jan 1992 to Sep 2020 in millions of dollars. The impact on sales of the shallow recession of 2001 was much milder than the sharp contraction in the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. There is flattening in the final segment of the series followed by another increase/decrease. Sales collapsed in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Data are not adjusted for price changes. There is sharp decline in Feb-Mar 2020 with sharp recovery in May-Sep 2020.

Chart VA-7, US, Total Sales of Retail Trade and Food Services, SA, Jan 1992-Sep 2020, Millions of Dollars

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

Chart VA-7A of the US Census Bureau provides total sales of retail trade and food services seasonally adjusted (SA) from Jan 2019 to Sep 2020 in millions of dollars. Sales jumped in May-Sep 2020 in recovery from the contraction in Feb-Mar 2020.

Chart VA-7A, US, Total Sales of Retail Trade and Food Services, SA, Jan 2019-Sep 2020, Millions of Dollars

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

Chart VA-8 of the US Census Bureau provides total sales of retail trade and food services seasonally adjusted (NSA) from Jan 1992 to Sep 2020 in millions of dollars. Data are not adjusted for price changes. There is sharp contraction in Feb-Apr 2020, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event, with sharp recovery in May-Sep 2020.

Chart VA-8, US, Total Sales of Retail Trade and Food Services, NSA, Jan 1992-Sep 2020, Millions of Dollars

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

Chart VA-8A of the US Census Bureau provides total sales of retail trade and food services seasonally adjusted (NSA) from Jan 2019 to Sep 2020 in millions of dollars. Data are not adjusted for price changes. There is sharp recovery in May-Sep 2020 with stability.

Chart VA-8A, US, Total Sales of Retail Trade and Food Services, NSA, Jan 2019-Sep 2020, Millions of Dollars

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

Table VI-7C provides additional information required for understanding the deficit/debt situation of the United States. The table is divided into four parts: Treasury budget in the 2020 fiscal year beginning on Oct 1, 2019 and ending on Sep 30, 2020; federal fiscal data for the years from 2009 to 2019; federal fiscal data for the years from 2005 to 2008; and Treasury debt held by the public from 2005 to 2019. Receipts decreased 1.2 percent in the cumulative fiscal year 2020 ending in Sep 2020 relative to the cumulative in fiscal year 2019. Individual income taxes decreased 6.4 percent relative to the same fiscal period a year earlier. Outlays increased 47.3 percent relative to a year earlier. There are also receipts, outlays, deficit and debt for fiscal years 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019. In fiscal year 2019, the deficit reached $984.4 billion or 4.6 percent of GDP. Outlays of 4,446.6 billion were 21.0 percent of GDP and receipts of $3,462.2 billion were 16.3 percent of GDP. It is quite difficult for the US to raise receipts above 18 percent of GDP. Total revenues of the US from 2009 to 2012 accumulate to $9021.2 billion, or $9.0 trillion, while expenditures or outlays accumulate to $14,104.5 billion, or $14.1 trillion, with the deficit accumulating to $5083.3 billion, or $5.1 trillion. Revenues decreased 6.5 percent from $9652.5 billion in the four years from 2005 to 2008 to $9021.2 billion in the years from 2009 to 2012. Decreasing revenues were caused by the global recession from IVQ2007 (Dec) to IIQ2009 (Jun) and by growth of only 1.2 percent on average in the cyclical expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2020. In contrast, the expansion from IQ1983 to IVQ1993 was at the average annual growth rate of 3.7 percent and at 7.9 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/10/dollar-carry-trades-induced-from-zero.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/d-ollar-devaluation-and-yuan.html). Because of mediocre GDP growth, there are 32.7 million unemployed or underemployed in the United States for an effective unemployment/underemployment rate of 18.9 percent (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/10/increasingvaluations-of-risk-financial.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/09/exchange-rate-fluctuations-1.html). Weakness of growth and employment creation is analyzed in II Collapse of United States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/07/contraction-of-household-wealth-by-14.html). In contrast with the decline of revenue, outlays or expenditures increased 30.1 percent from $10,838.2 billion, or $10.8 trillion, in the four years from 2005 to 2008, to $14,104.5 billion, or $14.1 trillion, in the four years from 2009 to 2012. Increase in expenditures by 30.1 percent while revenue declined by 6.5 percent caused the increase in the federal deficit from $1185.8 billion in 2005-2008 to $5083.3 billion in 2009-2012. Federal revenue was 14.8 percent of GDP on average in the years from 2009 to 2012, which is well below 17.3 percent of GDP on average from 1962 to 2019. Federal outlays were 23.3 percent of GDP on average from 2009 to 2012, which is well above 20.1 percent of GDP on average from 1962 to 2019. The lower part of Table VI-7C shows that debt held by the public swelled from $5803 billion in 2008 to $13,117 billion in 2015, by $7314 billion or 126.0 percent. Debt held by the public as percent of GDP or economic activity jumped from 39.4 percent in 2008 to 79.2 percent in 2019, which is well above the average of 41.7 percent from 1962 to 2019. The United States faces tough adjustment because growth is unlikely to recover, creating limits on what can be obtained by increasing revenues, while continuing stress of social programs restricts what can be obtained by reducing expenditures. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) provides a preliminary estimate of the impact of Public Law 116-136 of Mar 27, 2020, CARES Act or Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act (https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-04/hr748.pdf). This preliminary estimate finds that the CARES Act “will increase federal deficits by about $1.8 trillion over the 2020-2030 period (https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-04/hr748.pdf).

Table VI-7C, US, Treasury Budget in Fiscal Year to Date Million Dollars

Sep 2020	Fiscal Year 2020	Fiscal Year 2019	∆%
Receipts	3,419,955	3,462,223	-1.2
Outlays	6,551,872	4,446,611	47.3
Deficit	-3,131,917	-984,388
Individual Income Tax	1,608,662	1,717,857	-6.4
Corporation Income Tax	211,845	230,245	-8.0
Social Insurance	965,428	914,302	5.6
	Receipts	Outlays	Deficit (-), Surplus (+)
$ Billions
Fiscal Year 2019	3,462.2	4,446.6	-984.4
% GDP	16.3	21.0	-4.6
Fiscal Year 2018	3,329.9	4,109.0	-779.1
% GDP	16.4	20.2	-3.8
Fiscal Year 2017	3,316.2	3,981.6	-665.4
% GDP	17.2	20.6	-3.5
Fiscal Year 2016	3,268.0	3,852.6	-584.7
% GDP	17.6	20.8	-3.2
Fiscal Year 2015	3,249.9	3,691.8	-442.0
% GDP	18.0	20.4	-2.4
Fiscal Year 2014	3,021.5	3,506.3	-484.8
% GDP	17.4	20.2	-2.8
Fiscal Year 2013	2,775.1	3,454.9	-679.8
% GDP	16.7	20.8	-4.1
Fiscal Year 2012	2,450.0	3,526.6	-1,076.6
% GDP	15.3	22.0	-6.7
Fiscal Year 2011	2,303.5	3,603.1	-1,299.6
% GDP	15.0	23.4	-8.4
Fiscal Year 2010	2,162.7	3,457.1	-1,294.4
% GDP	14.6	23.3	-8.7
Fiscal Year 2009	2,105.0	3,517.7	-1,412.7
% GDP	14.6	24.4	-9.8
Total 2009-2012	9,021.2	14,104.5	-5,083.3
Average % GDP 2009-2012	14.8	23.3	-8.4
Fiscal Year 2008	2,524.0	2,982.5	-458.6
% GDP	17.1	20.2	-3.1
Fiscal Year 2007	2,568.0	2,728.7	-160.7
% GDP	18.0	19.1	-1.1
Fiscal Year 2006	2,406.9	2,655.1	-248.2
% GDP	17.6	19.5	-1.8
Fiscal Year 2005	2,153.6	2,472.0	-318.3
% GDP	16.8	19.3	-2.5
Total 2005-2008	9,652.5	10,838.2	-1,185.8
Average % GDP 2005-2008	17.4	19.5	-2.1
Debt Held by the Public	Billions of Dollars	Percent of GDP
2005	4,592	35.8
2006	4,829	35.4
2007	5,035	35.2
2008	5,803	39.4
2009	7,545	52.3
2010	9,019	60.8
2011	10,128	65.8
2012	11,281	70.3
2013	11,983	72.2
2014	12,780	73.7
2015	13,117	72.5
2016	14,168	76.4
2017	14,666	76.0
2018	15,750	77.4
2019	16,803	79.2

Source: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/sm0184.aspx https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm806 CBO, The budget and economic outlook: 2018 to 2028. Washington, DC, Apr 9 https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53651

CBO, The budget and economic outlook: 2017-2027. Washington, DC, Jan 24, 2017 https://www.cbo.gov/publication/52370 CBO, An update to the budget and economic outlook: 2016 to 2026. Washington, DC, Aug 23, 2016.

https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget-economic-data#6

CBO (2012NovMBR). CBO (2011AugBEO); Office of Management and Budget 2011. Historical Tables. Budget of the US Government Fiscal Year 2011. Washington, DC: OMB; CBO. 2011JanBEO. Budget and Economic Outlook. Washington, DC, Jan. CBO. 2012AugBEO. Budget and Economic Outlook. Washington, DC, Aug 22. CBO. 2012Jan31. Historical budget data. Washington, DC, Jan 31. CBO. 2012NovCDR. Choices for deficit reduction. Washington, DC. Nov. CBO. 2013HBDFeb5. Historical budget data—February 2013 baseline projections. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Feb 5. CBO. 2013HBDFeb5. Historical budget data—February 2013 baseline projections. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Feb 5. CBO (2013Aug12). 2013AugHBD. Historical budget data—August 2013. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Aug. CBO, Historical Budget Data—February 2014, Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Feb. CBO, Historical budget data—April 2014 release. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Apr. Congressional Budget Office, August 2014 baseline: an update to the budget and economic outlook: 2014 to 2024. Washington, DC, CBO, Aug 27, 2014. CBO, Monthly budget review: summary of fiscal year 2014. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Nov 10, 2014. CBO, The budget and economic outlook: 2015 to 2025. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Jan 26, 2015.

https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget-economic-data#6

https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget_economic_data#3 https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget_economic_data#2

Risk aversion channels funds toward US long-term and short-term securities that finance the US balance of payments and fiscal deficits benefitting from risk flight to US dollar denominated assets. There are now temporary interruptions because of fear of rising interest rates that erode prices of US government securities because of mixed signals on monetary policy and exit from the Fed balance sheet of seven trillion dollars of securities held outright. Net foreign purchases of US long-term securities (row C in Table VA-4) strengthened from minus $31.1 billion in Jul 2020 to minus $10.2 billion in Aug

2020. Foreign residents’ purchases minus sales of US long-term securities (row A in Table VA-4) in Jul 2020 of minus $26.2 billion strengthened to $33.6 billion in Aug 2020. Net US (residents) purchases of long-term foreign securities (row B in Table VA-4) weakened from $37.5 billion in Jul 2020 to minus $5.7 billion in Aug 2020. Other transactions (row C2 in Table VA-4) changed from minus $42.4 billion in Jul 2020 to minus $38.1 billion in Aug 2020. In Aug 2020,

C = A + B + C2 = $33.6 billion - $5.7 billion - $38.1 billion = -$10.2 billion.

There are minor rounding errors. There is strengthening demand in Table VA-4 in Aug 2020 in A1 private purchases by residents overseas of US long-term securities of $7.8 billion of which weakening in A11 Treasury securities of minus $37.2 billion, strengthening in A12 of $24.3 billion in agency securities, strengthening of $1.4 billion of corporate bonds and strengthening of $19.3 billion in equities. Worldwide risk aversion causes flight into US Treasury obligations with significant oscillations. Official purchases of securities in row A2 increased $25.8 billion with increase of Treasury securities of $4.2 billion in Aug 2020. Official purchases of agency securities increased $13.4 billion in Aug 2020. Row D shows increase in Aug 2020 of $18.5 billion in purchases of short-term dollar denominated obligations. Foreign holdings of US Treasury bills increased $8.1 billion (row D1) with foreign official holdings decreasing $8.5 billion while the category “other” increased $10.4 billion. Foreign private holdings of US Treasury bills increased $16.6 billion in what could be arbitrage of duration exposures and international risks. Risk aversion of default losses in foreign securities dominates decisions to accept zero interest rates in Treasury securities with no perception of principal losses. In the case of long-term securities, investors prefer to sacrifice inflation and possible duration risk to avoid principal losses with significant oscillations

in risk perceptions.

Table VA-4, Net Cross-Borders Flows of US Long-Term Securities, Billion Dollars, NSA

	Aug 2019 12 Months	Aug 2020 12 Months	Jul 2020	Aug 2020
A Foreign Purchases less Sales of US LT Securities	4.9	-101.1	-26.2	33.6
A1 Private	234.0	-5.9	-20.3	7.8
A11 Treasury	146.2	-305.0	-2.1	-37.2
A12 Agency	181.9	210.2	22.2	24.3
A13 Corporate Bonds	16.9	-105.8	-55.8	1.4
A14 Equities	-111.0	194.8	15.3	19.3
A2 Official	-229.2	-95.3	-5.9	25.8
A21 Treasury	-322.3	-280.6	-20.7	4.2
A22 Agency	92.2	158.8	12.2	13.4
A23 Corporate Bonds	-8.3	16.1	1.4	0.9
A24 Equities	9.3	10.3	1.2	7.2
B Net US Purchases of LT Foreign Securities	232.4	378.4	37.5	-5.7
B1 Foreign Bonds	186.1	276.7	12.4	-5.6
B2 Foreign Equities	46.3	101.7	25.1	-0.1
C1 Net Transactions	237.2	277.2	11.3	27.8
C2 Other	-179.2	-370.5	-42.4	-38.1
C Net Foreign Purchases of US LT Securities	58.0	-93.3	-31.1	-10.2
D Increase in Foreign Holdings of Dollar Denominated Short-term
US Securities & Other Liab	103.6	398.7	-4.0	18.5
D1 US Treasury Bills	-0.2	296.2	-1.4	8.1
D11 Private	33.9	206.4	-12.5	16.6
D12 Official	-34.1	89.8	11.1	-8.5
D2 Other	103.8	102.5	-2.6	10.4

C1 = A + B; C = C1+C2

A = A1 + A2

A1 = A11 + A12 + A13 + A14

A2 = A21 + A22 + A23 + A24

B = B1 + B2

D = D1 + D2

Sources: United States Treasury

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Pages/ticpress.aspx

http://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/jl2609.aspx

Table VA-5 provides major foreign holders of US Treasury securities. China is the second largest holder with $1068.0 billion in Aug 2020, decreasing 0.5 percent from $1073.4 billion in Jul 2020 while decreasing $35.5 billion from Aug 2019 or 3.2 percent. The United States Treasury estimates US government debt held by private investors at $15,688 billion in Jun 2020 (Fiscal Year 2020). China’s holding of US Treasury securities represents 6.8 percent of US government marketable interest-bearing debt held by private investors (https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/treasury-bulletin/). Min Zeng, writing on “China plays a big role as US Treasury yields fall,” on Jul 16, 2014, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/articles/china-plays-a-big-role-as-u-s-treasury-yields-fall-1405545034?tesla=y&mg=reno64-wsj), finds that acceleration in purchases of US Treasury securities by China has been an important factor in the decline of Treasury yields in 2014. Japan increased its holdings from $1174.6 billion in Aug 2019 to $1278.4 billion in Aug 2020 or 8.8 percent. The combined holdings of China and Japan in Aug 2020 add to $2346.4 billion, which is equivalent to 15.0 percent of US government marketable interest-bearing securities held by investors of $15,688 billion in Jun 2020 (Fiscal Year 2020) (https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/treasury-bulletin/). Total foreign holdings of Treasury securities increased from $7036.4 billion in Jul 2019 to $7083.2 billion in Aug 2020, or 0.7 percent. The US continues to finance its fiscal and balance of payments deficits with foreign savings (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007). Professor Martin Feldstein, at Harvard University, writing on “The Debt Crisis Is Coming Soon,” published in the Wall Street Journal on Mar 20, 2019 (https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-debt-crisis-is-coming-soon-11553122139?mod=hp_opin_pos3), foresees a US debt crisis with deficits moving above $1 trillion and debt above 100 percent of GDP. A point of saturation of holdings of US Treasury debt may be reached as foreign holders evaluate the threat of reduction of principal by dollar devaluation and reduction of prices by increases in yield, including possibly risk premium. Shultz et al (2012) find that the Fed financed three-quarters of the US deficit in fiscal year 2011, with foreign governments financing significant part of the remainder of the US deficit while the Fed owns one in six dollars of US national debt. Concentrations of debt in few holders are perilous because of sudden exodus in fear of devaluation and yield increases and the limit of refinancing old debt and placing new debt. In their classic work on “unpleasant monetarist arithmetic,” Sargent and Wallace (1981, 2) consider a regime of domination of monetary policy by fiscal policy (emphasis added):

“Imagine that fiscal policy dominates monetary policy. The fiscal authority independently sets its budgets, announcing all current and future deficits and surpluses and thus determining the amount of revenue that must be raised through bond sales and seignorage. Under this second coordination scheme, the monetary authority faces the constraints imposed by the demand for government bonds, for it must try to finance with seignorage any discrepancy between the revenue demanded by the fiscal authority and the amount of bonds that can be sold to the public. Suppose that the demand for government bonds implies an interest rate on bonds greater than the economy’s rate of growth. Then if the fiscal authority runs deficits, the monetary authority is unable to control either the growth rate of the monetary base or inflation forever. If the principal and interest due on these additional bonds are raised by selling still more bonds, so as to continue to hold down the growth of base money, then, because the interest rate on bonds is greater than the economy’s growth rate, the real stock of bonds will growth faster than the size of the economy. This cannot go on forever, since the demand for bonds places an upper limit on the stock of bonds relative to the size of the economy. Once that limit is reached, the principal and interest due on the bonds already sold to fight inflation must be financed, at least in part, by seignorage, requiring the creation of additional base money.”

Table VA-5, US, Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities $ Billions at End of Period

	Aug 2020	Jul 2020	Aug 2019
Total	7083.2	7097.0	7036.4
Japan	1278.4	1293.0	1174.6
China	1068.0	1073.4	1103.5
United Kingdom	419.9	424.7	434.6
Ireland	335.3	330.8	272.3
Luxembourg	268.8	264.7	244.2
Brazil	265.0	265.7	313.4
Switzerland	253.1	250.7	233.0
Hong Kong	250.9	267.1	252.2
Cayman Islands	228.9	222.3	248.8
Belgium	215.0	211.9	215.0
Taiwan	212.0	209.7	185.9
India	196.5	194.6	162.2
Singapore	160.3	158.6	145.5
France	133.6	130.3	134.0
Foreign Official Holdings	4200.0	4191.9	4200.2
A. Treasury Bills	385.0	393.6	295.2
B. Treasury Bonds and Notes	3815.0	3798.4	3905.0

Source: United States Treasury

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Pages/ticpress.aspx

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Pages/index.aspx

https://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt

VE Germany. Table VE-DE provides annual growth rates of the German economy from 1971 to 2019, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked (https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/02/PE20_056_811.html). Germany’s GDP fell 5.7 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.0 percent in 2008. Recovery had been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.2 percent in 2010, 3.9 percent in 2011 and 0.4 percent in 2012. Growth stabilized to 0.4 percent in 2013, increasing to 2.2 percent in 2014. The German economy grew at 1.7 percent in 2015 and grew at 2.2 percent in 2016. Germany’s GDP increased 2.5 percent in 2017 and increased 1.5 percent in 2018. The German economy grew at 0.6 percent in 2019.

The Federal Statistical Agency of Germany analyzes the fall and recovery of the German economy in its earlier website (http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Content/Statistics/VolkswirtschaftlicheGesamtrechnungen/Inlandsprodukt/Aktuell,templateId=renderPrint.psml):

“The German economy again grew strongly in 2011. The price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.0% compared with the previous year. Accordingly, the catching-up process of the German economy continued during the second year after the economic crisis. In the course of 2011, the price-adjusted GDP again exceeded its pre-crisis level. The economic recovery occurred mainly in the first half of 2011. In 2009, Germany experienced the most serious post-war recession, when GDP suffered a historic decline of 5.1%. The year 2010 was characterised by a rapid economic recovery (+3.7%).”

Table VE-DE, Germany, GDP ∆% on Prior Year

	Price Adjusted Chain-Linked	Price- and Calendar-Adjusted Chain Linked
Average ∆% 1991-2019	1.4	1.3
Average ∆% 1991-2018	1.4
Average ∆% 1991-1999	1.4	1.4
Average ∆% 2000-2007	1.3	1.4
Average ∆% 2003-2007	2.2	2.2
Average ∆% 2007-2019	1.2	1.2
Average ∆% 2009-2019	1.9	2.0
2019	0.6	0.6
2018	1.3	1.3
2017	2.6	2.9
2016	2.2	2.1
2015	1.5	1.2
2014	2.2	2.2
2013	0.4	0.6
2012	0.4	0.6
2011	3.9	4.0
2010	4.2	4.0
2009	-5.7	-5.6
2008	1.0	0.7
2007	3.0	3.1
2006	3.8	4.0
2005	0.7	0.9
2004	1.2	0.7
2003	-0.7	-0.7
2002	-0.2	-0.2
2001	1.7	1.8
2000	2.9	3.1
1999	1.9	1.8
1998	2.0	1.8
1997	1.8	1.9
1996	0.8	0.8
1995	1.5	1.6
1994	2.4	2.5
1993	-1.0	-1.0
1992	1.9	1.5
1991	5.1	5.2
1990	5.3	5.5
1989	3.9	4.0
1988	3.7	3.4
1987	1.4	1.3
1986	2.3	2.3
1985	2.3	2.6
1984	2.8	2.9
1983	1.6	1.5
1982	-0.4	-0.5
1981	0.5	0.6
1980	1.4	1.3
1979	4.2	4.3
1978	3.0	3.1
1977	3.3	3.5
1976	4.9	4.5
1975	-0.9	-0.9
1974	0.9	1.0
1973	4.8	5.0
1972	4.3	4.3
1971	3.1	3.0
1970	NA	NA

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/08/PE20_323_811.html

The Federal Statistical Office of Germany released estimates for IIQ2020 on Aug 25, 2020 (https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/05/PE20_180_811.html). Table VE-1 provides percentage change of Germany’s GDP in one quarter relative to the prior quarter from 1999 to 2020. Germany’s GDP contracted during four consecutive quarters from IIQ2008 to IQ2009. The deepest contraction was 4.7 percent in IQ2009. Growth was quite strong from IIIQ2009 to IQ2011 for cumulative growth of 8.1 percent in seven quarters or at the average rate of 1.1 percent per quarter, which is equivalent to 4.5 percent per year. Economic growth decelerated in IIQ2011 to 0.1 percent and 0.9 percent in IIIQ2011. The economy contracted 0.3 percent in IVQ2011 and grew 0.2 percent in IQ2012 but at 0.2 percent in IIQ2012. GDP growth in IIIQ2012 was 0.3 percent relative to IIQ2012. Germany’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IIIQ2012. GDP decreased 0.5 percent in IQ2013 and increased 1.1 percent in IIQ2013. Growth of GDP was 0.5 percent in IIIQ2013 and 0.3 percent in IVQ2013. Germany’s growth was robust at revised 1.0 percent in IQ2014 or 4.1 percent in annual equivalent. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2014. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014. The GDP of Germany increased 0.9 percent in IVQ2014. GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2015. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2015 and grew 0.4 percent in IVQ2015. GDP grew 0.8 percent in IQ2016 and increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2016. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2016. GDP grew 1.2 percent in IQ2017 and increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2017. GDP grew 0.9 percent in IIIQ2017 and increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2017. GDP grew 0.1 percent in IQ2018 and increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2018. GDP contracted 0.1 percent in IIIQ2018 and increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2018. GDP grew 0.5 percent in IQ2019 and contracted 0.2 percent in IIQ2019. GDP grew 0.3 percent in IIIQ2019 and contracted 0.1 percent in IVQ2019. GDP contracted 2.2 percent in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Using seasonally and calendar adjusted data (https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/08/PE20_323_811.html), Germany’s GDP contracted 7.0 percent from IQ2008 to IQ2009. GDP grew 8.0 percent from IQ2009 to IIQ2020 at the annual equivalent rate of 0.7 percent. GDP grew 0.4 percent from IQ2008 to IIQ2020 at nil annual equivalent rate.

The Federal Statistical Office of Germany released estimates for IIQ2020 on Aug 25, 2020 (https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/08/PE20_323_811.html). Consumption expenditures of households and NPISH decreased 10.9 percent in IIQ2020. Government final consumption increased 1.5 percent and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) decreased 7.9 percent. GFCF in machinery and equipment decreased 19.6 percent and GFCF in construction decreased 4.2 percent. Net trade deducted 1.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net traded deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2019 and deducted 0.6 percentage points in IIQ2019. Net trade added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.8 percentage points in IQ2020. Net trade deducted 2.8 percentage points in IIQ2020. The Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)) measures contributions of domestic demand to GDP growth in IQ2020 (https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/08/PE20_323_811.html). Final consumption expenditure deducted 5.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2020 and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) deducted 1.7 percentage points. Gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment deducted 0.5 percentage points and gross fixed capital formation in construction deducted 0.5 percentage points. The Federal Statistical Office of Germany released preliminary results for IIQ2020 on Aug 25, 2020, stating (https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/08/PE20_323_811.html): “As a consequence of the ongoing corona pandemic and the restrictions related with it, household final consumption fell sharply by 10.9 percent in the 2^nd quarter of 2020 compared with the 1^st quarter after price, seasonal and calendar adjustment. Gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment even dropped by as much as 19.6%. Gross fixed capital formation in construction also declined markedly (-4.2%) in the 2^nd quarter, which was due in particular to the exceptionally strong 1^st quarter (+5.1%). Only final consumption expenditure of the general government had a stabilizing effect; it was 1.5% higher than in the previous quarter and prevented an even larger GDP decrease. The trade with foreign countries also slumped. In the 2^nd quarter of 2020, exports of goods and services dropped by 20.3% on the 1^st quarter 2020 after price, seasonal and calendar adjustment. Imports also recorded a double-digit decline of 16.0%. This means that the decreases were even markedly larger than during the financial and economic crisis in the 1^st quarter 2009 (exports: -11.0%; imports: -59%). In the 1^st quarter of 2020, at the beginning of the coronavirus crisis, exports had already dropped by 3.3% and imports by 1.9%.”

Table VE-1, Germany Quarter GDP ∆% Relative to Prior Quarter, Seasonally and Calendar Adjusted 

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IV
2020	-2.0	-9.7
2019	0.6	-0.5	0.3	0.0
2018	-0.2	0.5	-0.3	0.3
2017	1.2	0.7	0.9	0.8
2016	0.9	0.4	0.2	0.4
2015	-0.5	0.7	0.4	0.5
2014	1.0	0.0	0.5	0.8
2013	-0.5	1.1	0.5	0.3
2012	0.2	0.2	0.3	-0.4
2011	2.0	0.1	0.9	-0.3
2010	0.8	2.2	0.8	0.8
2009	-4.7	0.2	0.5	0.7
2008	0.6	-0.3	-0.6	-1.6
2007	0.1	0.8	0.5	0.7
2006	1.0	1.7	0.8	1.5
2005	0.0	0.5	0.8	0.5
2004	-0.2	0.5	-0.2	-0.1
2003	-1.5	0.1	0.8	0.3
2002	-0.5	0.4	0.5	-0.1
2001	2.0	0.0	-0.2	-0.1
2000	1.4	0.8	0.0	-0.3
1999	1.2	0.0	1.2	0.8

Seasonal and calendar adjusted Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/08/PE20_323_811.html

Table VE-2 provides percentage changes of Germany’s GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Growth was weak in the recovery from the recession of 2001 through 2005, as in most of the euro area (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 116-46). Germany’s economy then grew robustly in 2006 and 2007 until the global recession after 2007. Germany recovered with robust growth in 2010 and vigorous 6.4 percent in IQ2011 relative to a year earlier. The economy decelerated in the final three quarters of 2011, growing 1.5 percent in IQ2012 relative to IQ2011. Growth decelerated further to 0.4 percent in IIQ2012 without calendar adjustment and 0.9 percent with calendar adjustment and to minus 0.1 percent in IIIQ2012. Growth in IVQ2012 relative to IVQ2011 was minus 0.1 percent. The GDP of Germany increased 0.2 percent in IQ2012 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier but 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier when adjusted for calendar effects (CA). In IIIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IVQ2012 and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, Germany’s GDP decreased 0.5 percent and fell 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 1.1 percent and grew 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2013 and grew 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 1.0 percent in IQ2014 and grew 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Germany’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.9 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany decreased 0.5 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2015 and grew 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and grew 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2015 and grew 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, the GDP of Germany increased 0.9 percent and grew 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 3.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of Germany increased 0.2 percent and grew 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2016 and grew 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, the GDP of Germany increased 1.2 percent and grew 3.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2017 and grew 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier and 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier adjusting for calendar effects (CA). In IIIQ2017, the GDP of Germany increased 0.9 percent and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier and 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2017, 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier and 3.6 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany decreased 0.2 percent in IQ2018 and grew 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier and 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2018, 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier and 2.0 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany decreased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2018, increasing 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier and 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2018, increasing 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier and 0.3 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany increased 0.6 percent in IQ2019, increasing 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier and increasing 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP contracted 0.3 percent in IIQ2019, decreased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier and increased 0.1 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2019, increasing 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier and increasing 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2019, increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP decreased 2.0 percent in IQ2020, decreased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier and decreased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany decreased 9.7 percent in IIQ2020, decreased 11.3 percent relative to a year earlier and decreased 11.3 percent relative to a year earlier (CA).

Table VE-2, Germany, Quarter GDP ∆% Relative to Same Quarter a Year Earlier, Price Adjusted NCSA 

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IV
2020	-1.8	-11.3
2019	1.0	-0.3	1.2	0.2
2018	1.5	2.4	0.7	0.5
2017	3.6	1.2	2.7	3.0
2016	2.2	3.6	1.9	1.4
2015	1.0	1.5	1.5	1.9
2014	3.2	1.4	1.8	2.4
2013	-1.5	0.8	1.2	1.2
2012	1.5	0.4	-0.1	-0.1
2011	6.4	3.8	3.7	2.0
2010	2.5	4.8	4.7	4.7
2009	-6.7	-7.9	-5.5	-2.7
2008	2.0	2.9	1.0	-1.9
2007	4.0	3.1	2.9	1.9
2006	4.3	2.7	3.5	4.7
2005	-0.7	1.1	1.2	1.2
2004	1.7	1.9	0.4	0.8
2003	-0.5	-1.4	-0.8	-0.2
2002	-1.7	0.0	0.8	0.0
2001	2.2	1.6	1.4	1.5
2000	4.2	3.9	2.5	1.0
1999	0.9	1.7	1.8	3.1

Price adjusted NSA Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/08/PE20_323_811.html

There are strong calendar effects in economic activity in Germany. Table VE-3 provides Germany’s percentage change in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier adjusting for price changes and calendar effects.

Table VE-3, Germany, Quarter GDP ∆% Relative to Same Quarter a Year Earlier, Calendar and Price Adjusted NSA 

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IV
2020	-2.2	-11.3
2019	1.1	0.1	0.7	0.4
2018	2.2	2.0	0.7	0.3
2017	2.3	2.5	3.1	3.6
2016	2.6	2.2	2.0	1.9
2015	0.9	1.5	1.4	1.1
2014	3.0	1.8	1.8	2.3
2013	-0.3	0.4	0.7	1.4
2012	1.0	0.9	0.4	0.2
2011	6.1	3.7	3.8	2.5
2010	2.4	4.4	4.7	4.7

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/05/PE20_180_811.html

Table VE-4 provides annual growth rates of the German economy from 1971 to 2019, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked (https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/02/PE20_056_811.html). Germany’s GDP fell 5.7 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.0 percent in 2008. Recovery had been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.2 percent in 2010, 3.9 percent in 2011 and 0.4 percent in 2012. Growth stabilized to 0.4 percent in 2013, increasing to 2.2 percent in 2014. The German economy grew at 1.7 percent in 2015 and grew at 2.2 percent in 2016. Germany’s GDP increased 2.5 percent in 2017 and increased 1.5 percent in 2018. The German economy grew at 0.6 percent in 2019.

The Federal Statistical Agency of Germany analyzes the fall and recovery of the German economy in its earlier website (http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Content/Statistics/VolkswirtschaftlicheGesamtrechnungen/Inlandsprodukt/Aktuell,templateId=renderPrint.psml):

“The German economy again grew strongly in 2011. The price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.0% compared with the previous year. Accordingly, the catching-up process of the German economy continued during the second year after the economic crisis. In the course of 2011, the price-adjusted GDP again exceeded its pre-crisis level. The economic recovery occurred mainly in the first half of 2011. In 2009, Germany experienced the most serious post-war recession, when GDP suffered a historic decline of 5.1%. The year 2010 was characterised by a rapid economic recovery (+3.7%).”

Table VE-4, Germany, GDP ∆% on Prior Year

	Price Adjusted Chain-Linked	Price- and Calendar-Adjusted Chain Linked
Average ∆% 1991-2019	1.4	1.3
Average ∆% 1991-2018	1.4
Average ∆% 1991-1999	1.4	1.4
Average ∆% 2000-2007	1.3	1.4
Average ∆% 2003-2007	2.2	2.2
Average ∆% 2007-2019	1.2	1.2
Average ∆% 2009-2019	1.9	2.0
2019	0.6	0.6
2018	1.3	1.3
2017	2.6	2.9
2016	2.2	2.1
2015	1.5	1.2
2014	2.2	2.2
2013	0.4	0.6
2012	0.4	0.6
2011	3.9	4.0
2010	4.2	4.0
2009	-5.7	-5.6
2008	1.0	0.7
2007	3.0	3.1
2006	3.8	4.0
2005	0.7	0.9
2004	1.2	0.7
2003	-0.7	-0.7
2002	-0.2	-0.2
2001	1.7	1.8
2000	2.9	3.1
1999	1.9	1.8
1998	2.0	1.8
1997	1.8	1.9
1996	0.8	0.8
1995	1.5	1.6
1994	2.4	2.5
1993	-1.0	-1.0
1992	1.9	1.5
1991	5.1	5.2
1990	5.3	5.5
1989	3.9	4.0
1988	3.7	3.4
1987	1.4	1.3
1986	2.3	2.3
1985	2.3	2.6
1984	2.8	2.9
1983	1.6	1.5
1982	-0.4	-0.5
1981	0.5	0.6
1980	1.4	1.3
1979	4.2	4.3
1978	3.0	3.1
1977	3.3	3.5
1976	4.9	4.5
1975	-0.9	-0.9
1974	0.9	1.0
1973	4.8	5.0
1972	4.3	4.3
1971	3.1	3.0
1970	NA	NA

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/08/PE20_323_811.html

The quarterly contributions of net trade or trade balance, exports and imports to GDP growth in Germany are in Table VE-5. There have been wide fluctuations in the contribution of net trade to Germany’s GDP growth. Net trade contributed 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017, deducting 0.2 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.5 percentage points in IIIQ2017, adding 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018 and deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2019 and deducted 0.6 percentage points in IIQ2019. Net trade contributed 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2019 and deducted 0.3 percentage points in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.8 percentage points in IQ2020 and deducted 2.8 percentage points in IIQ2020.

Table VE-5, Germany, Contributions of Trade Balance, Exports and Imports to GDP Growth, Percent

		Net Trade	Exports	Imports
2014	Q1	– 0.1	0.1	0.4
	Q2	– 0.3	0.8	1.6
	Q3	0.7	2	0.6
	Q4	0.1	2	1.9
2015	Q1	– 0.4	0.8	1.9
	Q2	0.6	1.9	0.6
	Q3	– 0.4	0.1	1
	Q4	– 0.6	– 0.3	1
2016	Q1	– 0.4	0.8	1.9
	Q2	0.7	1.2	– 0.2
	Q3	– 0.2	– 0.1	0.5
	Q4	– 0.7	1	2.8
2017	Q1	0.7	2.1	0.8
	Q2	– 0.2	1.7	2.6
	Q3	0.5	1.1	0.1
	Q4	0.1	1.8	2
2018	Q1	0.1	– 0.2	– 0.4
	Q2	– 0.2	0.8	1.5
	Q3	– 1.0	– 0.9	1.3
	Q4	– 0.2	0.2	0.6
2019	Q1	0.3	1.7	1.4
	Q2	– 0.6	– 1.4	– 0.3
	Q3	0.6	1.3	– 0.3
	Q4	– 0.3	– 0.6	0.1
2020	Q1	– 0.8	– 3.1	– 1.6
	Q2	-2.8

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/05/PE20_180_811.html

Chart VE-1 of the Statistiches Bundesamt (Destatis) shows growth of Germany GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Growth is slowing in the final segment with sharp contraction in IQ2020 and IIQ2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.

Chart VE-1, Germany, GDP Percentage Change on the Quarter and on the Same Quarter a Year Earlier

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/05/PE20_180_811.html

Chart GDP of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis provides the rates of growth of GDP at SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the 16 quarters from IIIQ2016 to IIQ2020. Growth has been fluctuating with sharp contraction in IQ2020 and IIQ2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.

Chart GDP, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Rates of Growth of United States GDP, ∆%

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

VH United Kingdom. Annual data in Table VH-UK show the strong impact of the global recession in the UK with decline of GDP of 4.1 percent in 2009 after dropping 0.3 percent in 2008. Recovery of 2.1 percent in 2010 is relatively low in comparison with annual growth rates in 2007 and earlier years. Growth was only 1.3 percent in 2011 and 1.4 percent in 2012. Growth increased to 2.2 percent in 2013 and 2.9 percent in 2014. Growth fell to 2.4 percent in 2015, and 1.7 percent in 2016.  GDP grew 1.7 percent in 2017. GDP grew 1.3 percent in 2018, growing 1.3 percent in 2019. The bottom part of Table VH-UK provides average growth rates of UK GDP since 1948. The UK economy grew at 2.5 percent per year on average between 1948 and 2019, which is relatively high for an advanced economy. The growth rate of GDP between 2000 and 2007 is higher at 2.6 percent. Growth in the current cyclical expansion from 2010 to 2019 has been only at 1.8 percent as advanced economies struggle with weak internal demand and world trade. GDP in 2019 is higher by 14.5 percent relative to 2007 while it would have been 36.1 higher at trend of 2.6 percent as from 2000 to 2007.

Table VH-UK, UK, Gross Domestic Product, ∆%

	∆% on Prior Year
1998	3.7
1999	3.3
2000	3.5
2001	2.7
2002	2.2
2003	3.3
2004	2.3
2005	3.0
2006	2.7
2007	2.4
2008	-0.3
2009	-4.1
2010	2.1
2011	1.3
2012	1.4
2013	2.2
2014	2.9
2015	2.4
2016	1.7
2017	1.7
2018	1.3
2019	1.3
Average Growth Rates ∆% per Year
1948-2019	2.5
1950-1959	3.1
1960-1969	3.1
1970-1979	2.6
1980-1989	3.2
1990-1999	2.5
2000-2007	2.6
2007-2013*	2.5
2007-2014*	5.4
2007-2015	1.0
2007-2016	1.0
2007-2017	1.1
2007-2018	1.1
2007-2019	1.1
2000-2019	1.7

*Absolute change from 2007 to 2013 and 2007 to 2014

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/apriltojune2020

The UK Office for National Statistics provides revision of the national accounts in accordance with the European System of Accounts 2010 (ESA 2010) (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/quarterly-national-accounts/q2-2015/index.html). The UK Office for National Statistics moved the base and reference year of chained volumes from 2015 to 2016 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/januarytomarch2018). There are adjustments of the UK national accounts (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/articles/nationalaccountsarticles/previousReleases https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/januarytomarch2018). The second estimate for IIQ2019 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/apriltojune2019) incorporates changes and notice of future revision: “(This release contains data that are consistent with the UK National Accounts, The Blue Book 2019, which will be released on 31 October 2019. As such, data for all periods within this release are subject to revision in line with the National Accounts Revisions Policy.)” The second estimate for IIQ2020 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/apriltojune2020) incorporates changes and notice of future revision: “This release contains data that are consistent with the UK National Accounts, The Blue Book: 2020, which will be released on 30 October 2020. As such, data for all periods within this release are subject to revision in line with the National Accounts Revisions Policy.” GDP decreased 19.8 percent in IIQ2020 relative to IQ2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Growth of 1.2 percent in IIIQ2012 interrupted three consecutive quarters of weakness in GDP growth from IIQ2011 to IVQ2011. Most advanced economies are underperforming relative to the period before the global recession. The UK Office for National Statistics analyzes that the decline in the impulse of growth in the UK originated in weakness in markets in the UK and worldwide. The UK Office for National Statistics data shows that GDP in IIQ2020 is lower by 11.6 percent relative to the peak in IQ2008 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/apriltojune2020). UK GDP in chained value measures is ₤458,023 million in IQ2008 and ₤515,430 million in IVQ2015 or increase of 7.3 percent. Growth at trend of 2.6 percent per year would bring GDP to ₤586,282 million in IVQ2015. UK GDP in IVQ2015 at ₤515,430 million is lower by ₤70,852 million relative to trend at ₤586,282 million or lower by 12.1 percent compared with trend. GDP estimates of the UK Office for National Statistics measure the contraction of 5.9 percent from peak to trough (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/apriltojune2020), which is roughly equal at 6.1 percent to compounding the quarterly rates except for rounding in Table VH-1 from IIQ2008 to IIQ2009. UK GDP is ₤480,523 million in IQ2008 declining 5.9 percent to ₤452,036 million in IIQ2009. GDP increased 14.0 percent from IIQ2009 to ₤515,430 million in IVQ2015 or at the annual equivalent rate of 2.1 percent. GDP increased 7.3 percent from IQ2008 to IVQ2015 or at the annual equivalent rate of 0.9 percent. Using the seasonally adjusted chained-value measures (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/apriltojune2020). GDP decreased from ₤480,523 million in IQ2008 to ₤424,962 million in IIQ2020, or 11.6 percent at the annual equivalent rate of minus 1.0 percent. UK GDP in IIQ2020 at ₤424,962 million is lower by ₤233,104 million relative to trend at ₤658,066 million or lower by 35.4 percent compared with trend. UK GDP decreased 6.0 percent from IIQ2009 to IIQ2020 at the annual equivalent rate of minus 0.6 percent.

Table VH-1, UK, Percentage Change of GDP from Prior Quarter, Chained Value Measures ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IV
2020	-2.5	-19.8
2019	0.6	0.0	0.3	0.1
2018	0.1	0.4	0.6	0.2
2017	0.5	0.3	0.4	0.4
2016	0.2	0.5	0.3	0.6
2015	0.5	0.7	0.4	0.7
2014	0.8	0.7	0.6	0.6
2013	0.5	0.8	0.9	0.6
2012	0.7	-0.1	1.2	-0.2
2011	0.4	0.1	0.3	0.1
2010	0.6	1.0	0.7	0.0
2009	-1.7	-0.2	0.1	0.3
2008	0.5	-0.6	-1.6	-2.1
2007	0.9	0.6	0.8	0.5
2006	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.5
2005	0.8	1.2	1.1	1.4
2004	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.3
2003	0.7	0.9	1.1	0.9
2002	0.4	0.5	0.7	0.8
2001	1.2	0.8	0.8	0.4
2000	0.8	0.6	0.3	0.2
1999	0.6	0.2	1.7	1.5
1998	0.9	0.9	0.7	1.0

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/apriltojune2020

Chart VH-1 of the UK Office for National Statistics provides the quarterly growth rate of GDP of the United Kingdom and GDP in chained volume measures (CVM) from 2008 to 2019. GDP contracted sharply during the global recession, surpassing the pre-recession peak of IQ2008 and continuing growth in the expansion phase. There is recent deceleration in growth with contraction of 19.8 percent in IIQ2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.

Chart VH-1, United Kingdom, Gross Domestic Product, CVM, SA, ₤ Billion, Percentage Change on Prior Quarter

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/apriltojune2020

There are four periods in Table VH-2 in growth of GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier in the UK in the years from 1998 to the present. (1) Growth rates were quite high from 2000 to 2007. (2) There were six consecutive quarters of contraction of GDP from IIIQ2008 to IVQ2009. Contractions relative to the quarter a year earlier were quite sharp with the highest of 3.6 percent in IVQ2008, 5.7 percent in IQ2009, 5.4 percent in IIQ2009 and 3.8 percent in IIIQ2009. (3) The economy bounced strongly with 2.2 percent in IIQ2010, 2.8 percent in IIIQ2010 and 2.5 percent in IVQ2010. (4) Recovery did not continue at rates comparable to those in 2000 to 2007 and even relative to those in the final three quarters of 2010. Growth relative to the same quarter a year earlier fell from 2.5 percent in IVQ2010 to 1.2 percent in IIQ2011, 0.8 percent in IIIQ2011, 0.9 percent in IVQ2011 but only 1.3 percent in IQ2012, increase of 1.0 percent in IIQ2012 relative to IIQ2011, increase of 1.9 percent in IIIQ2012 and 1.5 percent in IVQ2012. In IQ2012, UK GDP increased 0.7 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, GDP fell 0.1 percent relative to IQ2012 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, GDP increased 1.2 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier. In IVQ2012, GDP fell 0.2 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Fiscal consolidation in an environment of weakening economic growth is much more challenging. GDP increased 1.4 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 0.5 percent in IQ2013 relative to IVQ2012. In IIQ2013, GDP increased 0.8 percent and 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.9 percent in IIIQ2013 and 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IVQ2013 and 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, GDP increased 0.8 percent and 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2014 and 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2014 and 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, GDP increased 0.6 percent and 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2015 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2016 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2016 and grew 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IVQ2016 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2017 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, GDP increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2017 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2018 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, GDP increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2018 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, GDP increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2019 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, GDP increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2019 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2020, GDP decreased 2.5 percent and decreased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP decreased 19.8 percent in IIQ2020 and decreased 21.5 percent relative to a year earlier.

Table VH-2, UK, Percentage Change of GDP from Same Quarter a Year Earlier, Chained Value Measures ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IVQ
2020	-2.1	-21.5
2019	1.7	1.3	1.0	1.0
2018	1.1	1.2	1.4	1.2
2017	1.9	1.7	1.8	1.6
2016	2.0	1.7	1.6	1.6
2015	2.4	2.5	2.3	2.4
2014	3.2	3.0	2.7	2.6
2013	1.4	2.4	2.1	2.9
2012	1.3	1.0	1.9	1.5
2011	2.2	1.2	0.8	0.9
2010	0.9	2.2	2.8	2.5
2009	-5.7	-5.4	-3.8	-1.4
2008	2.4	1.3	-1.1	-3.6
2007	1.8	2.1	2.8	2.8
2006	4.1	3.2	2.2	1.3
2005	1.6	2.4	3.3	4.5
2004	3.4	2.8	1.8	1.2
2003	2.7	3.1	3.6	3.8
2002	2.5	2.1	2.1	2.6
2001	2.4	2.7	3.3	3.5
2000	4.3	4.7	3.1	1.8
1999	3.2	2.6	3.7	4.2
1998	3.7	3.7	3.7	3.5

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/apriltojune2020

Table VH-3 provides annual percentage changes of gross value added and key components. Production fell 7.8 percent in 2009 and its most important component manufacturing fell 8.6 percent. Services fell 2.5 percent in 2009. Services grew in all years from 2010 to 2019 while manufacturing fell 1.2 percent in 2012 and fell 1.1 percent in 2013. Manufacturing resumed growth with 2.8 percent in 2014 followed by decrease of 0.5 percent in 2015. Manufacturing increased 0.3 percent in 2016 and increased 2.3 percent in 2017. Manufacturing increased 1.1 percent in 2018. Manufacturing decreased 1.7 percent in 2019.

Table VH-3, UK, Gross Value Added by Components, ∆% on Prior Year

	TP	MFG	CONS	SERV	GVA BP	GVA EX
2018 Weights	139	101	64	790	1000	991
2019	-1.2	-1.7	1.8	1.8	1.4	1.4
2018	0.9	1.1	0	1.6	1.3	1.3
2017	1.8	2.3	6.1	1.4	1.7	1.8
2016	1.1	0.3	4.1	1.6	1.6	1.6
2015	0.3	-0.5	3.8	2.5	2.2	2.2
2014	1.5	2.8	9.9	2.5	2.9	2.9
2013	-1	-1.1	1.6	2.9	2.2	2.4
2012	-2.4	-1.2	-7.2	2.9	1.4	1.6
2011	-0.1	2.2	1	1.8	1.5	1.8
2010	3.5	4.7	8.5	1.7	2.3	2.5
2009	-7.8	-8.6	-13.2	-2.5	-4	-3.9
2008	-2.4	-2.8	-2.6	0.4	-0.1	-0.1
2007	0.7	0.5	2.2	2.7	2.3	2.4
2006	1.1	2.4	0.8	3.1	2.6	2.8
2005	-0.6	0.1	-2.4	4.8	3.5	3.8
2004	0.9	1.9	5.3	2.5	2.4	2.6
2003	-0.3	-0.3	4.8	4.2	3.4	3.7
2002	-1.4	-2.5	5.7	2.6	2.1	2.2
2001	-1.5	-1.4	1.8	4.1	2.8	3.1
2000	1.7	1.8	0.9	4.8	3.9	4
1999	1.1	0.3	1.3	3.7	3	2.8
1998	0.8	0.3	1.5	4.4	3.4	3.6

Note: TP: Total Production; MFG: Manufacturing; CONS: Construction; SERV: Services; GVA BP: Gross Value Added at Basic Prices; GVA EX: Gross Value Added excluding Oil and Gas

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/apriltojune2020

Table VH-4 shows for IIQ2020 that gross valued at basic prices decreased 21.5 percent relative to a year earlier while gross value added with exclusions decreased 21.6 percent. Total production decreased 18.7 percent and manufacturing decreased 23.6 percent. Services decreased 20.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The UK economy contracted in IIQ2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.

Table VH-4, UK, Gross Value Added by Components, ∆% on Same Quarter of Prior Year

	TP	MFG	CONS	SERV	GVA BP	GVA EX
2018 Weights	139	101	64	790	1000	991
2020 Q2	-18.7	-23.6	-38.2	-20.8	-21.5	-21.6
2020 Q1	-4.2	-5.3	-4	-1.7	-2.1	-2
2019 Q4	-1.2	-2.2	0.4	1.3	1	1
2019 Q3	-2.1	-2.6	1.3	1.8	1.2	1.2
2019 Q2	-1.3	-2.1	2	2	1.5	1.5
2019 Q1	-0.2	0.1	3.6	2.1	1.9	1.9
2018 Q4	-1	-1.1	-0.5	2	1.4	1.3
2018 Q3	1.2	1.3	0.8	1.6	1.5	1.4
2018 Q2	1.8	2.2	0.2	1.3	1.2	1.2
2018 Q1	1.8	2.3	-0.5	1.4	1.3	1.3
2017 Q4	2.2	3	5.2	1.3	1.7	1.7
2017 Q3	1.9	2.6	5.7	1.6	1.9	2
2017 Q2	0.1	0.9	6	1.6	1.7	1.7
2017 Q1	2.9	2.8	7.6	1	1.7	1.7
2016 Q4	2.4	1.7	5	1.1	1.5	1.5
2016 Q3	1.1	0.5	5.2	1.4	1.5	1.4
2016 Q2	1.3	0.5	3.6	1.6	1.7	1.7
2016 Q1	-0.5	-1.6	2.5	2.4	1.9	1.9
2015 Q4	-0.3	-1.5	2.6	2.5	2.1	2.1
2015 Q3	0.2	-1.3	1.6	2.5	2.1	2
2015 Q2	1.1	0	4.6	2.4	2.4	2.3
2015 Q1	0.5	0.9	6.6	2.3	2.3	2.4
2014 Q4	0.8	2.3	8.9	2.5	2.7	2.8
2014 Q3	1.3	2.8	9.6	2.4	2.8	2.9
2014 Q2	1.9	3.3	11.2	2.5	3	3.1
2014 Q1	1.9	2.9	9.9	2.7	3.1	3.1
2013 Q4	1.2	0.9	5.8	3	2.9	2.9
2013 Q3	-1	-0.9	5.2	2.5	2.1	2.2
2013 Q2	-1.7	-1.4	-0.1	3.4	2.4	2.6
2013 Q1	-2.7	-2.9	-4.2	2.8	1.5	1.7
2012 Q4	-3.1	-1.9	-7.6	3.1	1.5	1.7
2012 Q3	-1.9	-0.9	-8.2	3.4	1.8	2
2012 Q2	-2.3	-1.8	-7.8	2.4	1	1.2
2012 Q1	-2.3	-0.1	-5.4	2.7	1.4	1.6
2011 Q4	-2.1	0.2	0.5	1.9	1.2	1.5
2011 Q3	-0.3	1.5	-2.3	1.4	1	1.3
2011 Q2	0	3	0.6	1.7	1.4	1.8
2011 Q1	1.9	4.5	5.5	2.3	2.5	2.7
2010 Q4	4.1	5.4	9	2.1	2.8	2.9
2010 Q3	3.7	6	10.6	2.4	3.1	3.2
2010 Q2	3.4	4.4	10.5	1.7	2.4	2.6
2010 Q1	2.9	2.8	4	0.6	1.1	1.2
2009 Q4	-3.5	-3.6	-7.8	-0.2	-1.2	-1.1
2009 Q3	-8.2	-9	-12.2	-1.9	-3.6	-3.4
2009 Q2	-9	-9.9	-16.2	-3.8	-5.4	-5.4
2009 Q1	-10.2	-11.6	-16.1	-4.1	-5.8	-5.8
2008 Q4	-6.2	-6.8	-8.7	-3	-3.8	-3.7
2008 Q3	-2	-2.8	-1.7	-0.8	-1	-1
2008 Q2	-1.1	-1.6	-0.4	2.2	1.6	1.6
2008 Q1	-0.1	0.1	0.3	3.5	2.8	2.8
2007 Q4	0.7	-0.4	0.5	4	3.2	3.2
2007 Q3	0.5	-0.1	1.1	3.3	2.7	2.8
2007 Q2	1	0.7	3	2	1.9	2
2007 Q1	0.7	1.8	4.2	1.5	1.5	1.7
2006 Q4	1.2	3.3	3.9	0.6	0.8	1
2006 Q3	1.6	2.9	1.8	2.3	2.1	2.3
2006 Q2	0.3	1.8	-0.6	4.2	3.2	3.6
2006 Q1	1.3	1.6	-1.9	5.6	4.4	4.6
2005 Q4	-0.6	-0.2	-2.2	6.8	5.1	5.4
2005 Q3	-0.1	1.1	-3	5.2	3.9	4.2
2005 Q2	-0.7	0.1	-1.7	4	2.9	3.2
2005 Q1	-1.2	-0.6	-2.8	3	2	2.2
2004 Q4	0	0.9	-0.2	1.9	1.4	1.6
2004 Q3	-0.3	0.6	3.5	2.3	1.9	2.1
2004 Q2	2.3	2.9	6.8	2.6	2.8	2.9
2004 Q1	1.6	3	11.7	3.2	3.4	3.8
2003 Q4	1.3	2.1	5.7	4.3	3.8	4.2
2003 Q3	-0.1	-0.6	4.5	4.7	3.7	3.9
2003 Q2	-0.9	-0.4	5.5	4.2	3.3	3.7
2003 Q1	-1.3	-2.3	3.5	3.8	2.8	2.8
2002 Q4	-0.6	-1.9	6.9	2.8	2.5	2.5
2002 Q3	-1.4	-1.9	7.4	2.3	2	2.3
2002 Q2	-1.7	-3	3.4	2.5	1.9	1.9
2002 Q1	-2.1	-3	5.2	2.8	2.1	2.2
2001 Q4	-3.2	-3.8	3.8	4.2	2.6	2.8
2001 Q3	-1.3	-1.1	3.7	3.9	2.8	3.1
2001 Q2	-1.4	-1.3	1.6	4	2.7	3.1
2001 Q1	-0.1	0.6	-1.9	4.2	2.9	3.4
2000 Q4	0.4	1.2	0	3.8	2.9	3.3
2000 Q3	0.5	0.4	-1.9	5.3	3.9	4.1
2000 Q2	2.9	2.7	2.1	5.6	4.8	4.9
2000 Q1	3.1	2.7	3.3	4.4	4	3.8
1999 Q4	3.1	2.4	2.1	3.6	3.5	3.2
1999 Q3	2.4	1.5	3.2	3.2	3.1	2.8
1999 Q2	-0.2	-0.9	1.4	3.2	2.4	2.3
1999 Q1	-0.8	-1.6	-1.5	4.6	3.2	3.1
1998 Q4	-0.1	-1	0	4.9	3.6	3.7
1998 Q3	0.6	0.3	1.3	4.7	3.6	3.7
1998 Q2	1.5	1	0.1	4	3.3	3.3
1998 Q1	1.2	1	4.7	3.7	3.3	3.6

Note: TP: Total Production; MFG: Manufacturing; CONS: Construction; SERV: Services; GVA BP: Gross Value Added at Basic Prices; GVA EX: Gross Value Added excluding Oil and Gas

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/apriltojune2020

Table VH-5 provides contributions to value added by expenditure components in a quarter relative to the prior quarter. Household final consumption added 0.28 percentage points in IIQ2019. Household final consumption added 0.01 percentage points in IIIQ2019. Household final consumption deducted 0.23 percentage points in IVQ2019. Household final consumption deducted 1.83 percentage points in IQ2010. Household final consumption deducted 14.43 percentage points in IIQ2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Net trade contributed 2.81 percentage points in IIQ2019. Net trade added 1.13 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade added 0.41 percentage points in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.48 percentage points in IQ2020. Net trade contributed 3.54 percentage points in IIQ2020. Gross fixed capital formation deducted 0.18 percentage points in IIQ2019. Gross fixed capital formation added 0.25 percentage points in IIIQ2019. GFCF deducted 0.31 percentage points in IVQ2019. GFCF deducted 0.18 percentage points in IQ2020. GFC deducted 3.91 percentage points in IIQ2020.

Table VH-5, UK, Contribution to Quarter on Prior Quarter of Growth of Value Added by Expenditure Components, %

	IIQ2019	IIIQ2019	IVQ2019	IQ2020	IIQ2020
HFC	0.28	0.01	-0.23	-1.83	-14.43
NPISH	-0.02	0.05	0.02	-0.11	-0.59
GOVT	0.37	-0.10	0.13	-0.75	-2.76
GCF	-3.66	-0.98	-0.13	0.73	-5.61
GFCF	-0.18	0.25	-0.31	-0.18	-3.91
BI	0.05	0.13	-0.02	-0.05	-2.72
Exports	-0.56	1.60	0.54	-3.43	-3.23
Less Imports	-3.36	0.48	0.13	-2.95	-6.77
Net Trade	2.81	1.13	0.41	-0.48	3.54

Components may not add because of rounding

HFC: Household Final Consumption; NPISH: NPISH Final Consumption; GOVT: General Government; GCF: Gross Capital Formation; GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation; BINV: Business Investment; EXP: Exports; IMP: Less Imports

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/apriltojune2020

Contributions of value added by expenditure components in a year relative to the prior year are in Table VH-6. Household final consumption added 1.4 percentage points in 2014 and 1.7 percentage points in 2015. Household final consumption added 2.39 percentage points 2016. Household final consumption contributed 0.64 percentage points in 2017. Household final consumption contributed 0.79 percentage points in 2018. Household final consumption added 0.51 percentage points in 2019. Gross capital formation contributed 1.8 percentage points in 2014 and 0.8 percentage points in 2015. Gross capital formation deducted 0.10 percentage points in 2016. Gross capital formation contributed 0.13 percentage points in 2017. Gross capital formation contributed 0.16 percentage points in 2018. Gross capital formation added 0.16 percentage points in 2019. GFCF added 1.1 percentage points in 2014 and 0.6 percentage points in 2015. GFCF added 0.62 percentage points in 2016. GFCF contributed 0.49 percentage points in 2017. GFCF added 0.07 percentage points in 2018. GFCF added 0.27 percentage points in 2019. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points in 2014 and subtracted 0.4 percentage points in 2015. Net trade deducted 0.52 percentage points in 2016. Net trade contributed 0.73 percentage points in 2017. Net trade contributed 0.05 percentage points in 2018. Net traded deducted 0.19 percentage points in 2019.

Table VH-6, UK, Contribution to Growth on Prior Year of Value Added by Expenditure Components, %

	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
HFC	1.4	1.7	2.39	0.64	0.79	0.51
NPISH	0.0	0.0	-0.04	0.09	0.13	0.05
GOVT	0.5	0.3	0.19	0.14	0.12	0.76
GCF	1.8	0.8	-0.10	0.13	0.16	0.16
GFCF	1.1	0.6	0.62	0.49	0.07	0.27
BINV	0.5	0.4	0.41	0.16	-0.26	0.11
Exports	0.8	1.3	0.76	1.53	0.91	0.86
Less Imports	1.4	1.6	1.28	0.80	0.86	1.05
Net Trade	-0.6	-0.4	-0.52	0.73	0.05	-0.19

HFC: Household Final Consumption; NPISH: NPISH Final Consumption; GOVT: General Government; GCF: Gross Capital Formation; GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation; BINV: Business Investment; EXP: Exports; IMP: Less Imports

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/apriltojune2020

Table VH-L3 provides indicators of the labor force survey of the UK for Jun-Aug 2020 and earlier quarters. There has been stability in UK labor markets with the rate of unemployment changing from 3.9 percent in Jun-Aug 2019 to 4.5 percent in Jun-Aug 2020.

Table VH-L3, UK, Labor Force Survey Indicators, Thousands, SA

	LFHP	EMP	PART	UNE	RATE
Jun-Aug 2018	41,258	32,410	75.6	1,363	4.0
Jun-Aug 2019	41,339	32,693	75.9	1,314	3.9
Sep-Nov 2019	41,363	32,901	76.3	1,306	3.8
Dec-Feb 2020	41,388	33,073	76.6	1,364	4.0
Mar-May 2020	41,423	32,744	75.9	1,384	4.1
Jun-Aug 2020	41,435	32,591	75.6	1,522	4.5
∆ on Quarter	12	-153	-0.3	138	0.4
∆%	0.0	-0.5		10.0
∆ on Year	96	-102	-0.3	209	0.6
∆%	0.2	-0.3		15.9

Notes: LFHP: Labor Force Household Population Ages 16 to 64 in thousands; EMP: Employed Ages 16 and over in thousands; PART: Employment as % of Population Ages 16 to 64; UNE: Unemployed Ages 16 and over in thousands; Rate: Number Unemployed Ages 16 and over as % of Employed plus Unemployed

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/october2020

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020.