Increasing Valuations of Risk Financial Assets, Increase of 661 Thousand Nonfarm Payroll Jobs and 887 Thousand Private Payroll Jobs in the Global Recession, with Output in the US Reaching a High in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the Lockdown of Economic Activity in the COVID-19 Event, Thirty-Three Million Unemployed or Underemployed in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth Underperforming Below Trend Worldwide, Job Creation, Cyclically Stagnating Real Wages, Cyclically Stagnating Real Disposable Income Per Capita, Financial Repression, World Cyclical Slow Growth, and Government Intervention in Globalization: Part IV

Increasing Valuations of Risk Financial Assets, Increase of 661 Thousand Nonfarm Payroll Jobs and 887 Thousand Private Payroll Jobs in the Global Recession, with Output in the US Reaching a High in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the Lockdown of Economic Activity in the COVID-19 Event, Thirty-Three Million Unemployed or Underemployed in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth Underperforming Below Trend Worldwide, Job Creation, Cyclically Stagnating Real Wages, Cyclically Stagnating Real Disposable Income Per Capita, Financial Repression, World Cyclical Slow Growth, and Government Intervention in Globalization: Part IV

Carlos M. Pelaez

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020.

I Thirty-Three Million Unemployed or Underemployed in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth Underperforming Below Trend Worldwide

IA2 Number of People in Job Stress

IA3 Long-term and Cyclical Comparison of Employment

IA4 Job Creation

IB Stagnating Real Wages

II Stagnating Real Disposable Income and Consumption Expenditures

IIB1 Stagnating Real Disposable Income and Consumption Expenditures

IB2 Financial Repression

III World Financial Turbulence

IV Global Inflation

V World Economic Slowdown

VA United States

VB Japan

VC China

VD Euro Area

VE Germany

VF France

VG Italy

VH United Kingdom

VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets

VII Economic Indicators

VIII Interest Rates

IX Conclusion

References

Appendixes

Appendix I The Great Inflation

IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies

IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact

IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort

IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis

Percentage changes of prices of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) in a month relative to the same month a year earlier at in Table IV-6. Prices of PCE increased from 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier in Jan 2019 to 1.9 percent in Jan 2020, decreasing to 1.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2020. The price indicator of monetary policy is the 12-month change of prices of personal consumption excluding food and energy (PCE). The goal of monetary policy was to maintain the 12-month change of PCEX at or below 2.0 percent. On Aug 27, 2020, the Federal Open Market Committee changed its Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, including the following (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/review-of-monetary-policy-strategy-tools-and-communications-statement-on-longer-run-goals-monetary-policy-strategy.htm): “The Committee judges that longer-term inflation expectations that are well anchored at 2 percent foster price stability and moderate long-term interest rates and enhance the Committee's ability to promote maximum employment in the face of significant economic disturbances. In order to anchor longer-term inflation expectations at this level, the Committee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.” The new policy can affect relative exchange rates depending on relative inflation rates and country risk issues. The increase of PCEX in 12 months decreased from 1.8 percent in Feb 2020 to 1.6 percent in Aug 2020, remaining below 2.0 percent.

Table IV-6, US, Percentage Change in 12 Months of Prices of Personal Consumption

Expenditures ∆%

	PCE	PCEG	PCEG -D	PCES	PCEX	PCEF	PCEE
2020
Aug	1.4	0.1	0.9	2.0	1.6	4.3	-9.4
Jul	1.1	-0.5	-0.1	1.9	1.4	4.3	-11.4
Jun	0.9	-1.1	-1.8	1.9	1.1	5.2	-12.8
May	0.5	-2.2	-2.3	1.8	1.0	4.6	-18.1
Apr	0.5	-2.2	-2.9	1.7	0.9	4.0	-17.0
Mar	1.3	-0.8	-1.8	2.3	1.7	1.3	-5.9
Feb	1.8	0.4	-1.6	2.5	1.9	0.9	3.0
Jan	1.9	0.5	-2.1	2.5	1.8	0.9	6.6
2019
Dec	1.6	0.4	-2.0	2.2	1.6	0.8	3.7
Nov	1.4	-0.3	-1.5	2.2	1.6	0.9	-0.8
Oct	1.4	-0.6	-1.1	2.4	1.7	1.1	-4.3
Sep	1.4	-0.7	-1.0	2.4	1.7	0.8	-4.8
Aug	1.5	-0.5	-1.2	2.5	1.9	0.8	-4.5
Jul	1.5	-0.5	-1.3	2.5	1.7	0.9	-1.8
Jun	1.5	-0.6	-0.5	2.4	1.7	1.1	-3.3
May	1.5	-0.4	-1.2	2.4	1.6	1.3	-0.4
Apr	1.6	-0.4	-1.5	2.5	1.7	0.8	1.5
Mar	1.5	-0.3	-1.2	2.3	1.6	1.4	-0.1
Feb	1.4	-0.9	-1.0	2.4	1.7	1.3	-5.2
Jan	1.5	-0.9	-1.1	2.6	1.8	0.8	-5.2

Notes: percentage changes in price index relative to the same month a year earlier of PCE: personal consumption expenditures; PCEG: PCE goods; PCEG-D: PCE durable goods; PCES: PCE services; PCEX: PCE excluding food and energy; PCEF: PCE food; PCEE: PCE energy goods and services

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm

Industrial producer prices in the euro area are following similar inflation waves as in the rest of the world (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/09/wealth-of-households-and-nonprofit.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/d-ollar-devaluation-and-yuan.html), as shown in Table IV-7EA. In the first wave in Jan-Apr 2011, annual equivalent inflation of producer prices was 11.3 percent driven by carry trades from zero interest rates into commodity futures. In the second wave in May-Jun 2011, annual equivalent inflation of producer prices was 0.0 percent. In the third wave in Jul-Sep 2011, annual equivalent inflation increased at 2.4 percent. In the fourth wave in Oct-Dec 2011, risk aversion originating in the European sovereign debt crisis interrupted commodity carry trades, resulting in annual equivalent inflation of only 0.8 percent. In the fifth wave in Jan-Mar 2012, annual equivalent inflation jumped to 7.0 percent with a high annual equivalent rate of 7.4 percent in Jan-Feb 2012. In the sixth wave, risk aversion from the European sovereign debt event caused reversal of commodity carry trades with equivalent annual inflation of minus 2.0 percent in Apr-Jun 2012. In the seventh wave, annual equivalent inflation jumped to 7.4 percent in Jul-Aug 2012 while energy prices driven by carry trades increased at the annual equivalent rate of 25.3 percent. In the eighth wave, annual equivalent inflation retreated to 0.6 percent in Sep-Oct 2012. In the ninth wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 2.4 percent in Nov-Dec 2012. In the tenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was 3.0 percent in Jan-Feb 2013. In the eleventh wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 3.5 percent in Mar-Jun 2013. In the twelfth wave, annual equivalent inflation was 1.2 percent in Jul-Sep 2013. In the thirteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 3.5 percent in Oct-Nov 2013. In the fourteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation returned at 2.4 percent in Dec 2013. In the fifteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 2.6 percent in Jan-May 2014. In the sixteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was 2.4 percent in Jun 2014.  In the seventeenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 3.0 percent in Jul-Aug 2014. In the eighteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was 2.4 percent in Sep 2014. In the nineteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 3.5 percent in Oct-Nov 2014. In the twentieth wave, annual equivalent inflation fell at 11.9 percent in Dec 2014-Jan 2015. In the twenty-first wave, annual equivalent inflation was 4.9 percent in Feb-Mar 2015. In the twenty-second wave, annual equivalent inflation changed at 0.0 percent in Apr-Jun 2015. In the twenty-third wave, annual equivalent inflation fell at 5.1 percent in Jul-Sep 2015. In the twenty-fourth wave, producer prices fell at 3.0 percent annual equivalent in Oct-Nov 2015. In the twenty-fifth wave, annual equivalent inflation decreased at 9.2 percent in Dec-2015-Feb 2016. In the twenty-sixth wave, annual equivalent inflation of producer prices was at 3.7 percent in Mar 2016. In the twenty-seventh wave, producer prices fell at 4.7 percent annual equivalent in Apr 2016. In the twenty-eighth wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 7.4 percent in May-Jun 2016. In the twenty-ninth wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 4.9 percent in Jul 2016. In the thirtieth wave, producer prices fell at 2.4 percent annual equivalent in Aug 2016. In the thirty-first wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 2.4 percent in Sep 2016. In the thirty-second wave, producer prices increased at 5.5 percent annual equivalent in Oct-Nov 2016. In the thirty-third wave, producer prices increased at 11.3 percent in Dec 2016-Jan 2017. In the thirty-fourth wave, producer prices decreased at 1.2 percent in Feb-Apr 2017. In the thirty-fifth wave, producer prices fell at annual equivalent 1.6 percent in May-Jul 2017. In the thirty-sixth wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 3.7 percent in Aug 2017. In the thirty-seventh wave, producer prices increased at 5.3 percent annual equivalent in Sep-Nov 2017. In the thirty-eighth wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 3.7 percent in Dec 2017-Jan 2018. In the thirty-ninth wave, producer prices changed at annual equivalent 0.0 percent in Feb-Apr 2018. In the fortieth wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 8.1 percent in May-Jun 2018. In the forty-first wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 7.8 percent in Jul-Oct 2018. In the forty-second wave, producer prices fell at annual equivalent 6.4 percent in Nov-Dec 2018. In the forty-third wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 2.4 percent in Jan-Feb 2019. In the forty-fourth wave, producer prices fell at annual equivalent 2.0 percent in Mar-May 2019. In the forty-fifth wave, producer prices fell at annual equivalent 7.0 percent in Jun 2019. In the forty-sixth wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 1.2 percent in Jul 2019. In the forty-seventh wave, producer prices fell at annual equivalent 5.8 percent in Aug 2019. In the forty-eighth wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 1.8 percent in Sep-Nov 2019. In the forty-ninth wave, producer prices increased at 1.8 percent annual equivalent in Dec 2019-Jan 2020. In fiftieth wave, producer prices decreased at annual equivalent 13.5 percent in Feb-May 2020. In the fifty-first wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 9.4 percent in Jun-Jul 2020. In the fifty-second wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 1.2 percent in Aug 2020. The bottom part of Table IV-7EA provides 12-annual percentage changes from 1999 to 2019. The final row of Table IV-7EA provides the average annual rate of producer-price inflation in the euro area at 1.6 percent from 1999 to 2019.

Table IV-7EA, Euro Area, Industrial Producer Prices Excluding Construction, Month and 12-Month ∆%

	Month ∆%	12-Month ∆%
Aug 2020	0.1	-2.5
AE ∆% Aug	1.2
Jul	0.7	-3.1
Jun	0.8	-3.6
AE ∆% Jun-Jul	9.4
May	-0.6	-5.0
Apr	-2.0	-4.5
Mar	-1.5	-2.8
Feb	-0.7	-1.3
AE ∆% Feb-May	-13.5
Jan	0.3	-0.6
Dec 2019	0.0	-0.6
AE ∆% Dec-Jan	1.8
Nov	0.2	-1.3
Oct	0.1	-1.8
Sep	0.2	-1.1
AE ∆% Sep-Nov	1.8
Aug	-0.5	-0.8
AE ∆% Aug	-5.8
Jul 2019	0.1	0.1
AE ∆% Jul	1.2
Jun	-0.6	0.7
AE ∆% Jun	-7.0
May	-0.1	1.6
Apr	-0.3	2.6
Mar	-0.1	2.9
AE ∆% Mar-May	-2.0
Feb	0.1	3.0
Jan	0.3	2.9
AE ∆% Jan-Feb	2.4
Dec 2018	-0.8	3.0
Nov	-0.3	4.0
AE ∆% Nov-Dec	-6.4
Oct	0.8	4.9
Sep	0.6	4.6
Aug	0.4	4.3
Jul	0.7	4.2
AE ∆% Jul-Oct	7.8
Jun	0.4	3.6
May	0.9	3.0
AE ∆% May-Jun	8.1
Apr	0.0	1.8
Mar	0.0	1.9
Feb	0.0	1.6
AE ∆% Feb-Apr	0.0
Jan	0.4	1.5
Dec 2017	0.2	2.2
AE ∆% Dec-Jan	3.7
Nov 2017	0.6	2.7
Oct	0.4	2.4
Sep	0.3	2.6
AE ∆% Sep-Nov	5.3
Aug	0.3	2.6
AE ∆% Aug	3.7
Jul	0.1	2.0
Jun	-0.2	2.4
May	-0.3	3.3
AE ∆% May-Jul	-1.6
Apr	0.1	4.1
Mar	-0.3	3.7
Feb	-0.1	4.3
AE ∆% Feb-Apr	-1.2
Jan	1.1	3.8
Dec 2016	0.7	1.5
AE ∆% Dec-Jan	11.3
Nov	0.3	0.1
Oct	0.6	-0.4
AE ∆% Oct-Nov	5.5
Sep	0.2	-1.3
AE ∆% Sep	2.4
Aug	-0.2	-1.8
AE ∆% Aug	-2.4
Jul	0.4	-2.4
AE ∆% Jul	4.9
Jun	0.7	-3.0
May	0.5	-3.7
AE ∆% May-Jun	7.4
Apr	-0.3	-4.1
AE ∆% Apr	-4.7
Mar	0.3	-3.9
AE ∆% Mar	3.7
Feb	-0.6	-3.9
Jan	-1.1	-2.8
Dec 2015	-0.7	-2.8
AE ∆% Dec-Feb	-9.2
Nov	-0.2	-3.0
Oct	-0.3	-3.1
AE ∆% Oct-Nov	-3.0
Sep	-0.3	-3.1
Aug	-0.8	-2.6
Jul	-0.2	-2.1
AE ∆% Jul-Sep	-5.1
Jun	0.0	-2.1
May	0.1	-1.9
Apr	-0.1	-2.1
AE ∆% Apr-Jun	0.0
Mar	0.3	-2.2
Feb	0.5	-2.8
AE ∆% Feb-Mar	4.9
Jan	-1.1	-3.5
Dec 2014	-1.0	-2.7
AE ∆% Dec-Jan	-11.9
Nov	-0.3	-1.5
Oct	-0.3	-1.3
AE ∆% Oct-Nov	-3.5
Sep	0.2	-1.5
AE ∆% Sep	2.4
Aug	-0.3	-1.5
Jul	-0.2	-1.2
AE ∆% Jul-Aug	-3.0
Jun	0.2	-1.0
AE ∆% Jun	2.4
May	-0.1	-1.2
Apr	-0.2	-1.3
Mar	-0.3	-1.7
Feb	-0.2	-1.7
Jan	-0.3	-1.4
AE ∆% Jan-May	-2.6
Dec 2013	0.2	-0.8
AE ∆% Dec	2.4
Nov	-0.1	-1.1
Oct	-0.5	-1.2
AE ∆% Oct-Nov	-3.5
Sep	0.2	-0.9
Aug	0.0	-0.9
Jul	0.1	-0.1
AE ∆% Jul-Sep	1.2
Jun	0.0	0.2
May	-0.3	-0.3
Apr	-0.6	-0.2
Mar	-0.3	0.6
AE ∆% Mar-Jun	-3.5
Feb	0.1	1.3
Jan	0.4	1.8
AE ∆% Jan-Feb	3.0
Dec 2012	-0.2	2.1
Nov	-0.2	2.0
AE ∆% Nov-Dec	-2.4
Oct	-0.1	2.5
Sep	0.2	2.7
AE ∆% Sep-Oct	0.6
Aug	0.8	2.7
Jul	0.4	1.9
AE ∆% Jul-Aug	7.4
Jun	-0.5	2.0
May	-0.2	2.6
Apr	0.2	2.7
AE ∆% Apr-Jun	-2.0
Mar	0.5	3.4
Feb	0.6	3.7
Jan	0.7	3.8
AE ∆% Jan-Mar	7.4
Dec 2011	-0.3	4.4
Nov	0.3	5.4
Oct	0.1	5.6
AE ∆% Oct-Dec	0.4
Sep	0.2	5.6
Aug	-0.1	5.7
Jul	0.5	5.9
AE ∆% Jul-Sep	2.4
Jun	0.1	5.6
May	-0.1	5.9
AE ∆% May-Jun	-0.0
Apr	0.9	6.5
Mar	0.8	6.4
Feb	0.7	6.2
Jan	1.2	5.5
AE ∆% Jan-Apr	11.3
Annual 2019		0.7
2018		3.2
2017		3.0
2016		-2.1
2015		-2.6
2014		-1.5
2013		-0.1
2012		2.7
2011		5.7
2010		2.7
2009		-4.9
2008		6.0
2007		2.7
2006		5.1
2005		4.2
2004		2.4
2003		1.5
2002		0.0
2001		2.2
2000		3.9
1999		-0.4
Average ∆% 1999-2019		1.6

Source: EUROSTAT

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

The producer price index of Germany changed 0.0 percent in Jun 2020 and decreased 1.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2020, as shown in Table IV-8DE. The producer price index of Germany has similar waves of inflation as in many other countries (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/09/wealth-of-households-and-nonprofit.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/d-ollar-devaluation-and-yuan.html). In the first wave from Jan to Apr 2011, the annual equivalent rate of producer price inflation was 9.4, propelled by carry trades from zero interest rates to exposures in commodity futures in a mood of risk appetite. In the second wave in May and Jun 2011, the annual equivalent rate of producer price inflation was only 1.2 percent. In the third wave from Jul to Sep 2011, annual-equivalent producer price inflation in Germany was 2.0 percent with fluctuations in commodity prices resulting from perceptions of the sovereign risk crisis in Europe. In the fourth wave from Oct to Nov 2011, annual equivalent inflation was 1.2 percent as financial markets were shocked with strong risk aversion. In the fifth wave from Dec 2011 to Jan 2012, annual equivalent inflation was at 0.0 percent. In the sixth wave, annual equivalent inflation increased to 4.5 percent in Feb-Mar 2012. In the seventh wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 2.4 percent in May-Jul 2012. In the eighth wave, annual equivalent inflation was 4.3 percent in Aug-Sep 2012. In the ninth wave, renewed risk aversion resulted in annual equivalent inflation of minus 1.2 percent in Oct-Dec 2012. In the tenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 7.4 percent in Jan 2013. In the eleventh wave, annual equivalent inflation was at minus 2.0 percent in Feb-Apr 2013. In the twelfth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at minus 1.8 percent in May-Aug 2013. In the thirteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 3.7 percent in Sep 2013. In the fourteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at minus 1.8 percent in Oct-Nov 2013. In the fifteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 1.2 percent in Dec 2013. In the sixteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at minus 1.2 percent in Jan-Sep 2014. In the seventeenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at minus 5.5 percent in Oct 2014-Jan 2015. In the eighteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 1.2 percent in Apr 2015. In the nineteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at minus 0.4 percent in May-Jul 2014. In the twentieth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at minus 3.9 percent in Aug-Oct 2014. In the twenty-first wave, annual equivalent inflation was at minus 2.4 percent in Nov 2015. In the twenty-second wave, annual equivalent inflation was at minus 5.5 percent in Dec 2015-Feb 2016. In the twenty-third wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 0.0 percent in Mar 2015. In the twenty-fourth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 0.0 percent in Apr 2016. In the twenty-fifth-wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 3.2 percent in May-Jul 2016. In the twenty-sixth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at minus 0.6 percent in Aug-Sep 2016. In the twenty-seventh wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 5.2 percent in Oct 2016-Jan 2017. In the twenty-eighth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 0.6 percent in Feb-Mar 2017. In the twenty-ninth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 3.7 percent in Apr 2017. In the thirtieth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 0.0 percent in May-Jun 2017. In the thirty-first wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 1.2 percent in Aug-Jul 2017. In the thirty-second wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 2.4 percent in Sep-Oct 2017. In the thirty-third wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 2.4 percent in Nov-Dec 2017. In the thirty-fourth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 4.9 percent in Jan 2018. In the thirty-fifth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 0.0 percent in Feb 2018. In the thirty-sixth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 1.2 percent in Mar 2018. In the thirty-seventh wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 5.5 percent in Apr-May 2018. In the thirty-eighth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 3.7 percent in Jun-Aug 2018. In the thirty-ninth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 5.5 percent in Sep-Oct 2018. In the fortieth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 1.2 percent in Nov 2018. In the forty-first wave, annual equivalent inflation was at minus 4.7 percent in Dec 2018. In the forty-second wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 4.9 percent in Jan 2019. In the forty-third wave, annual equivalent inflation was at minus 2.4 percent in Feb-Mar 2019. In the forty-fourth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 6.2 percent in Apr 2019. In the forty-fifth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at minus 2.4 percent in May-Jun 2019. In the forty-sixth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 1.2 percent in Jul 2019. In the forty-seventh wave, producer prices fell at 4.7 percent annual equivalent in Aug 2019. In the forty-eighth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 1.2 percent in Sep 2019. In the forty-ninth wave, producer prices fell at annual equivalent 0.6 percent in Oct-Nov 2019. In the fiftieth wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 1.2 percent in Dec 2019. In the fifty-first wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 10.0 percent in Jan 2020. In the fifty-second wave, producer prices decreased at annual equivalent 6.7 percent in Feb-May 2020. In the fifty-third wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 1.2 percent in Jun-Aug 2020.

Table IV-8DE, Germany, Index of Producer Prices for Industrial Products ∆%

	12 Months ∆% NSA	Month ∆% NSA
Aug 2020	-1.1	0.1
Jul	-1.5	0.2
Jun	-1.6	0.0
AE ∆% Jun-Aug		1.2
May	-1.9	-0.5
Apr	-1.5	-0.6
Mar	-0.5	-0.8
Feb	0.1	-0.4
AE ∆% Feb-May		-6.7
Jan	0.5	0.8
AE ∆% Jan		10.0
Dec 2019	0.1	0.1
AE ∆% Dec		1.2
Nov	-0.4	0.0
Oct	-0.3	-0.1
AE ∆% Oct-Nov		-0.6
Sep	0.1	0.1
AE ∆% Sep		1.2
Aug	0.6	-0.4
AE ∆% Aug		-4.7
Jul	1.3	0.1
AE ∆% Jul		1.2
Jun	1.4	-0.3
May	2.0	-0.1
AE ∆% May-Jun		-2.4
Apr	2.6	0.5
AE ∆% Apr		6.2
Mar	2.5	-0.2
Feb	2.8	0.0
AE ∆% Feb-Mar		-2.4
Jan	2.8	0.4
AE ∆% Jan		4.9
Dec 2018	2.9	-0.4
AE ∆% Dec		-4.7
Nov	3.5	0.1
AE ∆% Nov		1.2
Oct	3.6	0.3
Sep	3.4	0.6
AE ∆% Sep-Oct		5.5
Aug	3.1	0.3
Jul	2.9	0.2
Jun	2.8	0.4
AE ∆% Jun-Aug		3.7
May	2.4	0.5
Apr	1.9	0.4
AE ∆% Apr-May		5.5
Mar	1.8	0.1
AE ∆% Mar		1.2
Feb	1.7	0.0
AE ∆% Feb		0.0
Jan	1.8	0.4
AE ∆% Jan		4.9
Dec 2017	2.1	0.2
Nov	2.3	0.2
AE ∆% Nov-Dec		2.4
Oct	2.3	0.1
Sep	2.6	0.3
AE ∆% Sep-Oct		2.4
Aug	2.3	0.1
Jul	2.1	0.1
AE ∆% Jul-Aug		1.2
Jun	2.2	0.0
May	2.7	0.0
AE ∆% May-Jun		0.0
Apr	2.9	0.3
AE ∆% Apr		3.7
Mar	2.6	0.0
Feb	2.6	0.1
AE ∆% Feb-Mar		0.6
Jan	2.0	0.7
Dec 2016	0.7	0.4
Nov	-0.1	0.2
Oct	-0.5	0.4
AE ∆% Oct-Jan		5.2
Sep	-1.2	0.0
Aug	-1.5	-0.1
AE ∆% Aug-Sep		-0.6
Jul	-1.8	0.2
Jun	-2.0	0.4
May	-2.5	0.2
AE ∆% May-Jul		3.2
Apr	-2.7	0.0
AE ∆% Apr		0.0
Mar	-2.7	0.0
AE ∆% Mar		0.0
Feb	-2.5	-0.4
Jan	-2.0	-0.6
Dec 2015	-2.1	-0.4
AE ∆% Dec-Feb		-5.5
Nov	-2.2	-0.2
AE ∆% Nov		-2.4
Oct	-2.0	-0.3
Sep	-1.9	-0.3
Aug	-1.6	-0.4
AE ∆% Aug-Oct		-3.9
Jul	-1.3	0.0
Jun	-1.4	-0.1
May	-1.3	0.0
AE ∆% May-Jul		-0.4
Apr	-1.5	0.0
Mar	-1.6	0.2
Feb	-2.0	0.1
AE ∆% Feb-Apr		1.2
Jan	-2.1	-0.7
Dec 2014	-1.6	-0.5
Nov	-1.0	0.0
Oct	-1.1	-0.2
AE ∆% Oct 2014-Jan 2015		-5.5
Sep	-1.1	0.0
Aug	-0.8	-0.1
Jul	-0.8	-0.1
Jun	-0.8	0.0
May	-0.8	-0.2
Apr	-1.0	-0.1
Mar	-0.9	-0.2
Feb	-1.0	-0.1
Jan	-1.1	-0.1
AE ∆% Jan-Sep		-1.2
Dec 2013	-0.4	0.1
AE ∆% Dec		1.2
Nov	-0.8	-0.1
Oct	-0.7	-0.2
AE ∆% Oct-Nov		-1.8
Sep	-0.4	0.3
AE ∆% Sep		3.7
Aug	-0.4	-0.1
Jul	0.1	-0.1
Jun	0.3	0.0
May	-0.2	-0.4
AE ∆% May-Aug		-1.8
Apr	0.0	0.0
Mar	0.2	-0.3
Feb	1.0	-0.2
AE ∆% Feb-Apr		-2.0
Jan	1.6	0.6
AE ∆% Jan		7.4
Dec 2012	1.5	-0.3
Nov	1.3	0.0
Oct	1.3	0.1
AE ∆% Oct-Dec		-1.2
Sep	1.4	0.3
Aug	1.3	0.4
AE ∆% Aug-Sep		4.3
Jul	0.7	0.1
Jun	1.1	-0.5
May	1.8	-0.2
AE ∆% May-Jul		-2.4
Apr	2.0	0.2
Mar	2.7	0.5
Feb	2.8	0.4
AE ∆% Feb-Apr		4.5
Jan	2.9	0.5
Dec 2011	3.5	-0.5
AE ∆% Dec-Jan		0.0
Nov	4.7	0.0
Oct	4.8	0.2
AE ∆% Oct-Nov		1.2
Sep	5.1	0.2
Aug	5.1	-0.2
Jul	5.2	0.5
AE ∆% Jul-Sep		2.0
Jun	5.0	0.2
May	5.5	0.0
AE ∆% May-Jun		1.2
Apr	6.1	0.9
Mar	5.9	0.6
Feb	5.7	0.5
Jan	5.1	1.0
AE ∆% Jan-Apr		9.4
Annual
2019		1.4
2018		2.6
2017		2.4
2016		-1.6
2015		-1.8
2014		-1.0
2013		0.1
2012		1.7
2011		5.1
2010		1.4
2009		-4.0
2008		5.4
2007		1.3
2006		5.4
2005		4.4
2004		1.7
2003		1.7
2002		-0.5
2001		3.0
2000		2.9
1999		-1.0

AE: annual equivalent

Source: EUROSTAT

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

There are waves of inflation of producer prices in France as everywhere in the world economy (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/d-ollar-devaluation-and-yuan.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/07/contraction-of-household-wealth-by-14.html), as shown in Table IV-8FR. There was a first wave of sharply increasing inflation in the first four months of 2011 originating in the surge of commodity prices driven by carry trades from zero interest rates to commodity futures risk positions. Producer price inflation in the first four months of 2011 was at the annual equivalent rate of 10.0 percent. In the second wave, producer prices fell 0.2 percent in May and another 0.1 percent in Jun for annual equivalent inflation in May-Jun 2011 of minus 1.8 percent. In the third wave from Jul to Sep 2011, annual equivalent producer price inflation was 3.2 percent. In the fourth wave Oct-Dec 2011, annual equivalent producer price inflation was 2.8 percent. In the fifth wave Jan-Mar 2012, average annual inflation rose to 5.7 percent during carry trades from zero interest rates to commodity futures. In the sixth wave in Apr-Jun 2012, annual equivalent inflation fell at the rate of 4.3 percent during unwinding of carry trades because of increasing risk aversion. In the seventh wave, carry trades returned under more relaxed risk aversion with producer price inflation in France at 7.4 percent in annual equivalent in Jul-Oct 2012. In the eighth wave, return of risk aversion caused unwinding carry trade and annual equivalent inflation of minus 4.1 percent in Nov-Dec 2012. In the ninth wave, inflation returned with annual equivalent 5.3 percent in Jan-Mar 2013. In the tenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 10.7 percent in Apr-Jun 2013. In the eleventh wave, annual equivalent inflation was 10.0 percent in Jul 2013 and 4.5 percent in Jul-Sep 2013. In the twelfth wave, annual equivalent inflation in Oct 2013 was minus 2.4 percent. In the thirteenth wave, inflation in Nov 2013 was 0.7 percent, primarily because of increases in electricity rates (http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=25&date=20131227), which is 8.7 percent in annual equivalent and 5.5 percent in annual equivalent in Nov-Dec 2013. In the fourteenth wave, inflation was minus 4.0 percent in annual equivalent in Jan-Aug 2014. In the fifteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was 7.4 percent in Sep 2014. In the sixteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 5.6 percent in Oct 2014-Jan 2015. In the seventeenth wave, inflation was 6.8 percent in annual equivalent in Feb-Mar 2015. In the eighteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 4.1 percent in Apr-May 2015. In the nineteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 0.6 percent in Jun-Jul 2015. In the twentieth wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 12.4 percent in Aug 2015. In the twenty-first wave, annual equivalent inflation was 1.2 percent in Sep-Nov 2015. In the twenty-second wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 12.4 percent in Dec 2015-Jan 2016. In the twenty-third wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 4.7 percent in Feb 2016. In the twenty-fourth wave, annual equivalent inflation was 2.4 percent in Mar 2016. In twenty-fifth wave, producer prices decreased at 7.0 percent annual equivalent in Apr 2016. In the twenty-sixth wave, producer prices increased at 5.5 percent in May-Jun 2016. In the twenty-seventh wave, annual equivalent inflation in Jul-Aug 2015 was 0.0 percent. In the twenty-eighth wave, annual equivalent inflation was 3.7 percent in Sep 2016. In the twenty-ninth wave, producer prices increased at 9.4 percent annual equivalent in Oct 2016-Jan 2017. In the thirtieth wave, producer prices fell at 4.1 percent annual equivalent in Feb-Mar 2017. In the thirty-first wave, annual equivalent producer price inflation was at minus 4.7 percent in Apr-Jun 2017. In the thirty-second wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 1.2 percent in Jul 2017. In the thirty-third wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 4.5 percent in Aug-Oct 2017. In the thirty-fourth wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 22.4 percent in Nov 2017. In the thirty-fifth wave, annual equivalent inflation increased at 1.8 percent in Dec 2017-Jan 2018. In the thirty-sixth wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 1.2 percent in Feb-Mar 2018. In the thirty-seventh wave, producer prices fell at annual equivalent 9.2 percent in Apr 2018. Insee measures decline of 16.5 percent of prices of refined petroleum products in Dec 2015 (http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=25&date=20160129). In the thirty-eighth wave, the producer price index increased at annual equivalent 8.7 percent in May 2018. In the thirty-ninth wave, produced prices changed at annual equivalent 0.0 percent in Jun 2018. In the fortieth wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 7.4 percent in Jul 2018. In the forty-first wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 5.2 percent in Aug-Nov 2018. In the forty-second wave, producer prices fell at annual equivalent 12.4 percent in Dec 2018. In the forty-third wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 4.9 percent in Jan-Feb 2019. In the forty-fourth wave, producer prices decreased at annual equivalent 1.2 percent in Mar 2019. In the forty-fifth wave, producer prices fell at annual equivalent 7.7 percent in Apr-Jun 2019. In the forty-sixth wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 4.9 percent in Jul 2019. In the forty-seventh wave, producer prices changed at annual equivalent 0.0 percent in Aug-Oct 2019. In the forty-eighth wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 18.2 percent in Nov 2019. In the forty-ninth wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 1.2 percent in Dec 2019. In the forty-ninth wave, producer prices decreased at annual equivalent 5.3 percent in Jan-Feb 2020. In the fiftieth wave, producer prices decreased at annual equivalent 16.3 percent in Mar-May 2020. In the fifty-sixth wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 7.4 percent in Jun-Jul 2020. In the fifty-seventh wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 1.2 percent in Aug 2020. The bottom part of Table IV-8FR shows producer price inflation at 3.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2005 and again at 4.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2007. Producer prices fell in 2009 during the global contraction and decline of commodity prices but returned at 4.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2010.

Table IV-8FR, France, Producer Price Index for the French Market, ∆%

	Month	12 Months
Aug 2020	0.1	-2.5
AE ∆% Aug	1.2
Jul	0.4	-2.5
Jun	0.8	-2.6
AE ∆% Jun-Jul	7.4
May	0.0	-3.9
Apr	-2.8	-4.4
Mar	-1.6	-2.5
AE ∆% Mar-May	-16.3
Feb	-0.7	-1.1
Jan	-0.2	0.1
AE ∆% Jan-Feb	-5.3
Dec 2019	0.1	0.6
AE ∆% Dec	1.2
Nov	1.4	-0.5
AE ∆% Nov	18.2
Oct	-0.2	-1.3
Sep	0.1	-0.9
Aug	0.1	-0.5
AE ∆% Aug-Oct	0.0
Jul	0.4	-0.2
AE ∆% Jul	4.9
Jun	-0.6	0.0
May	-0.5	0.6
Apr	-0.9	1.8
AE ∆% Apr-Jun	-7.7
Mar	-0.1	1.9
AE ∆% Mar	-1.2
Feb	0.5	2.2
Jan	0.3	1.7
AE ∆% Jan-Feb	4.9
Dec 2018	-1.0	1.4
AE ∆% Dec	-12.4
Nov	0.5	2.7
Oct	0.3	3.9
Sep	0.5	3.8
Aug	0.4	3.7
AE ∆% Aug-Nov	5.2
Jul	0.6	3.8
AE ∆% Jul	7.4
Jun	0.0	3.3
AE ∆% Jun	0.0
May	0.7	3.0
AE ∆% May	8.7
Apr	-0.8	1.7
AE ∆% Apr	-9.2
Mar	0.2	2.2
Feb	0.0	1.5
AE ∆% Feb-Mar	1.2
Jan	0.0	1.3
Dec 2017	0.3	2.2
AE ∆% Dec-Jan	1.8
Nov	1.7	2.7
AE ∆% Nov	22.4
Oct	0.2	1.6
Sep	0.4	2.1
Aug	0.5	2.1
AE ∆% Aug-Oct	4.5
Jul	0.1	1.4
AE ∆% Jul	1.2
Jun	-0.3	1.4
May	-0.6	2.2
Apr	-0.3	3.3
AE ∆% Apr-Jun	-4.7
Mar	-0.5	3.0
Feb	-0.2	3.7
AE ∆% Feb-Mar	-4.1
Jan	0.9	3.5
Dec 2016	0.8	1.4
Nov	0.6	-0.5
Oct	0.7	-1.0
AE ∆% Oct-Jan	9.4
Sep	0.3	-1.5
AE ∆% Sep	3.7
Aug	-0.1	-1.8
Jul	0.1	-2.8
AE ∆% Jul-Aug	0.0
Jun	0.4	-3.1
May	0.5	-3.4
AE ∆% May-Jun	5.5
Apr	-0.6	-4.3
AE ∆% Apr	-7.0
Mar	0.2	-4.0
AE ∆% Mar	2.4
Feb	-0.4	-4.1
AE ∆% Feb	-4.7
Jan	-1.1	-2.7
Dec 2015	-1.1	-2.6
AE ∆% Dec-Jan	-12.4
Nov	0.1	-2.5
Oct	0.2	-2.5
Sep	0.0	-2.6
AE ∆% Sep-Nov	1.2
Aug	-1.1	-2.1
AE ∆% Aug	-12.4
Jul	-0.2	-1.4
Jun	0.1	-1.5
AE ∆% Jun-Jul	-0.6
May	-0.4	-1.5
Apr	-0.3	-1.6
AE ∆% Apr-May	-4.1
Mar	0.1	-1.9
Feb	1.0	-2.2
AE ∆% Feb-Mar	6.8
Jan	-1.0	-3.4
Dec 2014	-1.0	-2.9
Nov	0.0	-1.7
Oct	0.1	-1.1
AE ∆% Oct-Jan	-5.6
Sep	0.6	-1.4
AE ∆% Sep	7.4
Aug	-0.4	-1.7
Jul	-0.3	-1.3
Jun	0.1	-0.2
May	-0.5	-0.6
Apr	-0.7	-1.3
Mar	-0.2	-1.9
Feb	-0.2	-1.6
Jan	-0.5	-1.0
AE ∆% Jan-Aug	-4.0
Dec 2013	0.2	0.2
Nov	0.7	-0.5
AE ∆% Nov-Dec	5.5
Oct	-0.2	-1.3
AE ∆% Oct	-2.4
Sep	0.3	-0.7
Aug	0.0	-0.7
Jul	0.8	0.3
AE ∆% Jul-Sep	4.5
Jun	-0.3	0.1
May	-1.2	-0.2
Apr	-1.3	0.4
AE ∆% Apr-Jun	-10.7
Mar	0.1	1.8
Feb	0.5	2.1
Jan	0.7	2.2
AE ∆% Jan-Mar	5.3
Dec 2012	-0.5	2.0
Nov	-0.2	2.3
AE ∆% Nov-Dec	-4.1
Oct	0.5	2.9
Sep	0.3	2.9
Aug	1.0	2.8
Jul	0.6	1.8
AE ∆% Jul-Oct	7.4
Jun	-0.6	1.8
May	-0.6	2.3
Apr	0.1	2.7
AE ∆% Apr-Jun	-4.3
Mar	0.4	3.6
Feb	0.5	3.9
Jan	0.5	4.2
AE ∆% Jan-Mar	5.7
Dec 2011	-0.2	4.5
Nov	0.4	5.3
Oct	0.5	5.3
AE ∆% Oct-Dec	2.8
Sep	0.2	5.3
Aug	0.0	5.7
Jul	0.6	5.8
AE ∆% Jul-Sep	3.2
Jun	-0.1	5.5
May	-0.2	5.8
AE ∆% May-Jun	-1.8
Apr	1.0	6.1
Mar	0.7	5.6
Feb	0.7	5.2
Jan	0.8	4.6
AE ∆% Jan-Apr	10.0
Dec 2010		4.3
Dec 2009		-2.9
Dec 2008		0.8
Dec 2007		4.6
Dec 2006		2.6
Dec 2005		3.1
Dec 2004		3.0
Dec 2003		0.4
Dec 2002		1.2
Dec 2001		-0.7
Dec 2000		3.9

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/4772595

Chart IV-1FR of the Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques of France provides the producer price index for the internal market in France from Jan 1999 to Apr 2017. The index also captures the low-price environment of the early 2000s that was used as an argument of fear of deflation. For fear of deflation, see Pelaez and Pelaez, International Financial Architecture (2005), 18-28, and Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 83-95. During the first round of unconventional monetary policy of low interest rates and withdrawal of duration in bond markets by suspension of auctions of the 30-year Treasury bond, inflation accelerated from 2004 to 2007. When central banks moved policy interest rates toward zero in 2008, carry trades during a global recession caused sharp increases in commodity prices and price indexes worldwide. Inflation collapsed in the risk panic from the latter part of 2008 into the first part of 2009. Carry trades induced by zero interest rates have caused a trend of inflation with oscillations during periods of risk aversion (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/09/wealth-of-households-and-nonprofit.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/d-ollar-devaluation-and-yuan.html).

Chart IV-1FR, France, Producer Prices for the Internal Market, Jan 1999-

Apr 2017, 2010=100

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études

https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/3129077

Update https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/serie/010534442#Graphique

France’s producer price index for the domestic market is in Table IV-9FR for Aug 2020. The segment mining, including electricity, increased 0.8 percent in Aug 2020 and decreased 2.6 percent in 12 months. The segment of prices of coke and refined petroleum decreased 3.0 percent in Aug 2020 and decreased 33.9 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing prices, with the highest weight in the index, decreased 0.2 percent in Aug and decreased 2.4 percent in 12 months. Waves of inflation originating in carry trades from unconventional monetary policy of zero interest rates (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/09/wealth-of-households-and-nonprofit.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/d-ollar-devaluation-and-yuan.html) tend to deteriorate sales prices of productive activities relative to prices of inputs and commodities with adverse impact on operational margins and thus on production, investment and hiring.

Table IV-9FR, France, Producer Price Index for the Domestic Market, %

Aug 2020	Weight	Month ∆%	12 Month ∆%
Total	1000	0.1	-2.5
Mining, Energy, Water	232	0.8	-2.6
Manufactured	768	-0.2	-2.4
Food Products, Beverages, Tobacco	205	-0.3	-0.3
Coke and Refined Petroleum	37	-3.0	-33.9
Electrical, Electronic	74	0.1	0.7
Transport	99	-0.1	1.9
Other Mfg	353	0.0	-1.9

Source:  Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/4772595

Chart IV-2FR of the Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques of France provides the behavior of the producer price index of France for the various segments: import prices, foreign markets, domestic market and all markets (updated chart at https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/4638661). All the components rose to the peak in 2008 driven by carry trades from zero interest rates of unconventional monetary policy that was of such an impulse as to drive increases in commodity prices during the global recession. Prices collapsed with the flight out of financial risk assets such as commodity positions to government obligations. Commodity price increases returned with zero interest rates and subdued risk aversion. The shock of confidence of the current European sovereign risk moderated exposures to financial risk that influenced the flatter curve of France’s producer prices followed by another mild trend of increase and moderation in Dec 2011 and then renewed inflation in the first quarter of 2012 with a new pause in Apr 2012, decline in May-Jun 2012, the jump in Jul-Oct 2012 and the decline in Nov-Dec 2012 followed by increase in Jan-Feb 2013. Prices stabilized in Mar 2013 and collapsed in Apr-Jun 2013. Inflation returned in Jul 2013 with sharp increase in energy prices and in Aug-Sep 2013. Prices fell in Oct 2013 with reversals of exposures in commodities and increased in Nov 2013 because of increases in electricity rates. Similar increases in electricity rates drive price increases in Nov 2015. Sharp declines of refined petroleum products influenced the decline of producer prices in Dec 2015-Feb 2016 with increases in Mar 2016. Prices of mining, including electricity, fell in Apr 2016 with decrease of producer prices for the internal market. Increases in petroleum prices influenced the increase in producer prices in May-Jun 2016. Prices stabilized in Jul 2016 with decrease of prices of coke and refined petroleum. Prices did not change in Aug 2016 and increased in Sep-Dec 2016. Prices increased in Jan 2017, decreasing in Feb-Jun 2017. Prices increased in Jul-Nov 2017, stabilizing in Dec 2017. Prices stabilized in Jan 2018, increasing in Feb-Mar 2018. Prices fell in Apr 2018 and increased in May 2018. Prices stabilized in Jun 2018. Prices increased in Jul-Nov 2018. Prices decreased in Dec 2018, increasing in Jan-Feb 2019. Prices decreased in Mar 2019, decreasing in Apr-Jun 2019. Prices increased in Jul-Sep 2019. Prices decreased in Oct 2019. Prices increased in Nov 2019 and in Dec 2019, decreasing in Jan-May 2020. Prices increased in Jun-Aug 2020. There is downward trend with oscillations in the commodity price shock and recent upward trend followed with renewed downward trend. There is new upward trend with oscillations and contractions.

Chart IV-2FR, France, Producer Price Indexes

Source:  Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/3685190

Update: https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/4772595

Table IV-10IT provides monthly and 12 months rates of change of producer prices in Italy. There are waves of inflation similar to those worldwide (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/09/wealth-of-households-and-nonprofit.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/d-ollar-devaluation-and-yuan.html). The annual equivalent producer price inflation in the first wave Jan-Apr 2011, annual equivalent inflation was 10.7 percent, which was driven by increases in commodity prices resulting from the carry trades from zero interest rates to risk financial assets, in particular, leveraged positions in commodities. In the second wave, producer price inflation was 1.8 percent in annual equivalent rate in May-Jun 2011. In the third wave, annual equivalent inflation was 4.9 percent in Jul-Sep 2011. With the return of risk aversion in the fourth wave coinciding with the worsening sovereign debt crisis in Europe, annual equivalent inflation was 2.0 percent in Oct-Dec 2011. Inflation accelerated in the fifth wave in Jan and Feb 2012 to annual equivalent 8.1 percent. In the sixth wave, annual equivalent inflation in Mar-Apr 2012 was at 6.8 percent. In the seventh wave, risk aversion originating in world economic slowdown and financial turbulence softened carry trades with annual equivalent inflation falling to minus 0.6 percent in May-Jun 2012. In the eighth wave, more aggressive carry trades into commodity futures exposures resulted in increase of inflation at annual equivalent 9.4 percent in Jul-Aug 2012. In the ninth wave, risk aversion caused unwinding carry trades with annual equivalent inflation of minus 5.2 percent in Sep 2012-Jan 2013. Inflation returned in the tenth wave at 1.2 percent annual equivalent in Feb-Mar 2013. In the eleventh wave, industrial prices fell at annual equivalent 3.5 percent in Apr-May 2013. In the twelfth wave, inflation returned at annual equivalent 4.9 percent in Jun 2013 and 0.3 percent in Jun-Sep 2013. In the thirteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 2.7 percent in Oct-2013 to May 2014. In the fourteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was 2.4 percent in Jun 2014. In the fifteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 3.5 percent in Jul-Aug 2014.  In the sixteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation returned at 1.2 percent in Sep 2014. In the seventeenth wave, annual equivalent inflation fell at 3.5 percent in Oct-Nov 2014. In the eighteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation fell at 14.0 percent in Dec 2014-Jan 2015. In the nineteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation increased at 3.7 percent in Feb-Mar 2015. In the twentieth wave, annual equivalent inflation fell at 2.4 percent in Apr 2015. In the twenty-first wave, annual equivalent increased at 3.7 percent in May 2015. In the twenty-second wave, annual equivalent inflation fell at 4.4 percent in Jun-Sep 2015. In the twenty-third wave, producer prices fell at annual equivalent 4.7 percent in Oct-Nov 2015. In the twenty-fourth wave, producer prices fell at annual equivalent 7.3 percent in Dec 2015-Feb 2016. In the twenty-fifth wave, annual equivalent inflation was 2.4 percent in Mar 2016. In the twenty-sixth wave, producer prices fell at annual equivalent 9.2 percent in Apr 2016. In the twenty-seventh wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 11.8 percent in May-Jul 2016. In the twenty-eighth wave, producer prices fell at annual equivalent 2.0 percent in Aug-Oct 2016. In the twenty-ninth wave, producer prices fell at 1.2 percent annual equivalent in Nov 2016. In the thirtieth wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 8.3 percent in Dec 2016-Feb 2017. In the thirty-first wave, producer prices fell at 2.4 percent in Mar 2017. In the thirty-second wave, producer prices increased at 1.2 percent annual equivalent in Apr 2017. In the thirty-third wave, producer prices fell at 3.5 percent annual equivalent in May 2017. In the thirty-fourth wave, producer prices decreased at 1.2 percent annual equivalent in Jun-Jul 2017. In the thirty-fifth wave, producer prices increased at 6.2 percent annual equivalent in Aug 2017. In the thirty-sixth wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 3.2 percent in Sep-Nov2017. In the thirty-seventh wave, producer prices changed at annual equivalent 0.0 percent in Dec 2017. In the thirty-eighth wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 5.3 percent in Jan-Mar 2018. In the thirty-ninth wave, producer prices fell at 8.1 percent annual equivalent in Apr 2018. In the fortieth wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 12.7 percent in May 2018. In the forty-first wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 12.4 percent in Jun-Oct 2018. In the forty-second wave, producer prices decreased at annual equivalent 7.5 percent in Nov-Dec 2018. In the forty-third wave, producer prices decreased at annual equivalent 5.3 percent in Jan-Apr 2019. In the forty-fourth wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 1.2 percent in May 2019. In the forty-fifth wave, producer prices decreased at annual equivalent 5.1 percent in Jun-Aug 2019. In the forty-sixth wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 0.6 percent in Sep-Oct 2019. In the forty-seventh wave, producer prices decreased at annual equivalent 1.8 percent in Nov-Dec 2019. In the forty-eighth wave, producer prices decreased at annual equivalent 5.3 percent in Jan-Feb 2020. In the forty-ninth wave, producer prices decreased at annual equivalent 25.3 percent in Mar-Apr 2020. In the fiftieth wave, producer prices decreased at annual equivalent 3.5 percent in May 2020. In the fifty-first wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 12.7 percent in Jun-Jul 2020. In the fifty-second wave, producer prices increased at annual equivalent 1.2 percent in Aug 2020.

Table IV-10IT, Italy, Industrial Prices, Internal Market

	Month ∆%	12-Month ∆%
Aug 2020	0.1	-4.0
AE ∆% Aug	1.2
Jul	1.3	-4.5
Jun	0.7	-6.1
AE ∆% Jun-Jul	12.7
May	-0.3	-7.2
AE ∆% May	-3.5
Apr	-3.5	-6.8
Mar	-1.3	-4.9
AE ∆% Mar-Apr	-25.3
Feb	-0.6	-3.8
Jan	-0.3	-3.4
AE ∆% Jan-Feb	-5.3
Dec 2019	0.0	-3.1
Nov	-0.3	-3.6
AE ∆% Nov-Dec	-1.8
Oct	0.0	-4.1
Sep	0.1	-2.4
AE ∆% Sep-Oct	0.6
Aug	-0.5	-2.1
Jul	-0.3	-1.0
Jun	-0.5	1.1
AE ∆% Jun-Aug	-5.1
May	0.1	1.9
AE ∆% May	1.2
Apr	-1.5	2.8
Mar	-0.1	3.6
Feb	-0.2	3.9
Jan	0.0	4.4
AE ∆% Jan-Apr	-5.3
Dec 2018	-0.6	5.2
Nov	-0.7	5.8
AE ∆% Nov-Dec	-7.5
Oct	1.8	7.1
Sep	0.4	5.6
Aug	0.6	5.2
Jul	1.8	5.1
Jun	0.3	3.2
AE ∆% Jun-Oct	12.4
May	1.0	2.7
AE ∆% May	12.7
Apr	-0.7	1.4
AE ∆% Apr	-8.1
Mar	0.2	2.2
Feb	0.3	1.8
Jan	0.8	1.8
AE ∆% Jan-Mar	5.3
Dec 2017	0.0	2.2
AE ∆% Dec	0.0
Nov	0.4	2.7
Oct	0.4	2.2
Sep	0.0	1.6
AE ∆% Sep-Nov	3.2
Aug	0.5	1.6
AE ∆% Aug	6.2
Jul	0.0	0.8
Jun	-0.2	2.5
AE ∆% Jun-Jul	-1.2
May	-0.3	3.2
AE ∆% May	-3.5
Apr	0.1	4.3
AE ∆% Apr	1.2
Mar	-0.2	3.3
AE ∆% Mar	-2.4
Feb	0.3	3.7
Jan	1.2	2.9
Dec 2016	0.5	0.8
AE ∆% Dec-Feb	8.3
Nov	-0.1	-0.3
AE ∆% Nov	-1.2
Oct	-0.2	-0.7
Sep	0.0	-0.7
Aug	-0.3	-1.0
AE ∆% Aug-Oct	-2.0
Jul	1.6	-1.3
Jun	0.5	-3.4
May	0.7	-4.1
AE ∆% May-Jul	11.8
Apr	-0.8	-4.5
AE ∆% Apr	-9.2
Mar	0.2	-3.9
AE ∆% Mar	2.4
Feb	-0.5	-4.1
Jan	-0.8	-3.0
Dec 2015	-0.6	-3.9
AE ∆% Dec-Feb	-7.3
Nov	-0.5	-4.1
Oct	-0.3	-3.7
AE ∆% Oct-Nov	-4.7
Sep	-0.3	-3.9
Aug	-0.6	-3.5
Jul	-0.5	-3.0
Jun	-0.2	-3.0
AE ∆% Jun-Sep	-4.4
May	0.3	-2.6
AE ∆% May	3.7
Apr	-0.2	-3.0
AE ∆% Apr	-2.4
Mar	0.0	-3.0
Feb	0.6	-3.2
AE ∆% Feb-Mar	3.7
Jan	-1.7	-3.8
Dec 2014	-0.8	-2.1
AE ∆% Dec-Jan	-14.0
Nov	-0.1	-1.5
Oct	-0.5	-1.5
AE ∆% Oct-Nov	-3.5
Sep	0.1	-2.0
AE ∆% Sep	1.2
Aug	-0.1	-2.1
Jul	-0.5	-1.9
AE ∆% Jul-Aug	-3.5
Jun	0.2	-1.8
AE ∆% Jun	2.4
May	-0.1	-1.7
Apr	-0.2	-1.7
Mar	-0.2	-1.9
Feb	-0.1	-1.7
Jan	0.0	-1.5
Dec 2013	-0.1	-2.1
Nov	-0.1	-2.3
Oct	-1.0	-2.5
AE ∆% Oct-May	-2.7
Sep	0.0	-2.2
Aug	0.1	-2.4
Jul	-0.4	-1.5
Jun	0.4	-0.7
AE ∆% Jun-Sep	0.3
May	-0.1	-1.1
Apr	-0.5	-1.1
AE ∆% Apr-May	-3.5
Mar	0.0	0.0
Feb	0.2	0.5
AE ∆% Feb-Mar	1.2
Jan	-0.6	0.7
Dec 2012	-0.3	2.4
Nov	-0.3	2.8
Oct	-0.7	3.5
Sep	-0.3	4.2
AE ∆% Sep-Jan	-5.2
Aug	1.1	4.5
Jul	0.4	3.8
AE ∆% Jul-Aug	9.4
Jun	0.0	4.2
May	-0.1	4.4
AE ∆% May-Jun	-0.6
Apr	0.6	4.6
Mar	0.5	4.8
AE ∆% Mar-Apr	6.8
Feb	0.5	5.2
Jan	0.8	5.2
AE ∆% Jan-Feb	8.1
Dec 2011	0.1	5.5
Nov	0.4	6.0
Oct	0.0	6.1
AE ∆% Oct-Dec	2.0
Sep	0.0	5.3
Aug	0.4	5.4
Jul	0.8	5.2
AE ∆% Jul-Sep	4.9
Jun	0.2	4.6
May	0.1	4.6
AE ∆% May-Jun	1.8
Apr	0.9	5.1
Mar	0.9	5.0
Feb	0.4	4.5
Jan	1.2	5.3
AE ∆% Jan-Apr	10.7
Year
2019		0.0
2018		4.0
2017		2.6
2016		-2.2
2015		-3.4
2014		-1.8
2013		-1.2
2012		4.1
2011		5.1
2010		3.1
2009		-5.4
2008		5.8
2007		3.4
2006		5.2
2005		4.1
2004		2.7
2003		1.6
2002		0.1
2001		1.9

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/247603

Chart IV-3IT of the Istituto Nazionale di Statistica provides 12-month percentage changes of the producer price index of Italy.  Rates of change in 12 months stabilized from Jul to Nov 2011 and then fell to 3.5 percent in Oct 2012 with increases of 0.7 percent in the month of Jan 2013 and 0.5 percent in Feb 2013 followed by stability in Mar 2013. Inflation turned negative in Apr-May 2013 with marginal increase in Jun 2013 followed by decline in Jul-Dec 2013. Inflation in 12 months fell in Jan-Mar 2014 and at lower rate in Apr-May 2014. Mild inflation returned in Jun 2014 followed by decline in Jul 2014, increase in Oct 2014 and decline in Nov-Dec 2014. There is continuing decline of inflation in Jan 2015 followed by increase in Feb 2015, decrease in Mar-Apr 2015 and increase in May 2015. Prices fell in Jun 2015-Feb 2016 and increased in Mar 2016. Prices fell in Apr 2016 and increased in May-Jul 2016. Prices fell in Aug-Nov 2016 and increased in Dec 2016. Prices increased in Jan-Feb 2017 and fell in Mar 2017, increasing in Apr 2017. Prices fell in May 2017 and decreased in Jun 2017, stabilizing in Jul 2017. Prices increased in Aug-Nov 2017, stabilizing in Dec 2017. Prices increased in Jan-Mar 2018, decreasing in Apr 2018. Prices increased in May-Oct 2018. Prices decreased in Nov-Dec 2018. Prices stabilized in Jan 2019, decreasing in Feb 2019. Prices decreased in Mar-Apr 2019. Prices increased in May 2019. Producer prices decreased in Jun-Aug 2019. Producer prices increased in Sep 2019, stabilizing in Oct 2019. Producer prices decreased in Nov 2019, stabilizing in Dec 2019. Prices decreased in Jan-May 2020. Prices increased in Jul-Aug 2020.

Chart IV-3IT, Italy, Producer Price Index 12-Month Percentage Changes

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/en/

Table IV-11IT provides monthly and 12-month inflation of producer prices in Italy by segments. Durable goods prices increased 0.2 percent in Aug 2020 and increased 1.7 percent in 12 months. Nondurable goods prices increased 0.5 percent in Aug and increased 0.3 percent in 12 months. Energy prices increased 0.1 percent in Aug and decreased 12.2 percent in 12 months.

Table IV-11IT, Italy, Producer Price Index for the Internal Market, ∆%

	Aug 20 20/Jul 20	Aug 20Aug 19
Consumer Goods	0.5	0.5
Durable	0.2	1.7
Nondurable	0.5	0.3
Capital Goods	-0.1	0.2
Intermediate Goods	0.1	-0.9
Energy	0.1	-12.2
Total Ex Energy	0.1	-0.1
Total	0.1	-4.0

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/247603

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020.