Total Nonfarm Hires Jump from 5864 Thousand in Feb 2020 and 4047 Thousand in Apr 2020 to 5919 Thousand in Aug 2020 in the Global Recession, with Output in the US Reaching a High in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the Lockdown of Economic Activity in the COVID-19 Event, Recovery Without Hiring in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth Underperforming Below Trend Worldwide, Fifteen Million Fewer Full-Time Jobs, Youth and Middle Age Unemployment, United States Inflation, United States International Trade, World Cyclical Slow Growth, and Government Intervention in Globalization: Part IV

Total Nonfarm Hires Jump from 5864 Thousand in Feb 2020 and 4047 Thousand in Apr 2020 to 5919 Thousand in Aug 2020 in the Global Recession, with Output in the US Reaching a High in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the Lockdown of Economic Activity in the COVID-19 Event, Recovery Without Hiring in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth Underperforming Below Trend Worldwide, Fifteen Million Fewer Full-Time Jobs, Youth and Middle Age Unemployment, United States Inflation, United States International Trade, World Cyclical Slow Growth, and Government Intervention in Globalization

Carlos M. Pelaez

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020.

I Recovery without Hiring

IA1 Hiring Collapse

IA2 Labor Underutilization

ICA3 Fifteen Million Fewer Full-time Jobs

IA4 Theory and Reality of Cyclical Slow Growth Not Secular Stagnation: Youth and Middle-Age Unemployment

IC United States Inflation

IC Long-term US Inflation

ID Current US Inflation

II United States International Trade

III World Financial Turbulence

IV Global Inflation

V World Economic Slowdown

VA United States

VB Japan

VC China

VD Euro Area

VE Germany

VF France

VG Italy

VH United Kingdom

VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets

VII Economic Indicators

VIII Interest Rates

IX Conclusion

References

Appendixes

Appendix I The Great Inflation

IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies

IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact

IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort

IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis

Inflation in advanced economies has been fluctuating in waves at the production level with alternating surges and moderation of commodity price shocks. Table IV-5B provides month and 12-month percentage rates of inflation of Japan’s corporate goods price index (CGPI) with the new 2015 weights. Inflation measured by the CGPI increased 0.6 percent in Jul 2020 and decreased 0.9 percent in 12 months. Inflation rose to a higher level in part because of the increase in the tax on value added of consumption in Apr 2014 and rebound in energy prices. Measured by 12-month rates, CGPI inflation increased from 0.0 percent in Jul 2010 to a high of 2.2 percent in Jul-Aug 2011, 2.3 percent in Aug 2013 and 2.6 percent in Nov 2013. Calendar-year inflation is 0.2 percent in 2019, 2.6 percent for 2018, 2.3 percent for 2017, minus 3.5 percent for 2016, minus 2.3 percent for 2015, 3.2 percent for 2014 and 1.2 percent for 2013. Calendar-year inflation for 2012 is minus 0.9 percent and 1.4 percent for 2011, which is the highest after declines in 2009 and 2010 but lower than 4.6 percent in the commodity shock driven by zero interest rates during the global recession in 2008. Inflation of the corporate goods prices follows waves similar to those in other indices around the world (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/09/wealth-of-households-and-nonprofit.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/d-ollar-devaluation-and-yuan.html). In the first wave, annual equivalent inflation reached 5.5 percent in Jan-Apr 2011, driven by commodity price shocks of the carry trade from zero interest rates to commodity futures. In the second wave, carry trades were unwound because of risk aversion caused by the European debt crisis, resulting in average annual equivalent inflation of minus 1.2 percent in May-Jun 2011. In the third wave, renewed risk aversion caused annual equivalent decline of the CGPI of minus 2.1 percent in Jul-Nov 2011. In the fourth wave, continuing risk aversion resulted in annual equivalent inflation of minus 0.6 percent in Dec 2011 to Jan 2012. In the fifth wave, renewed risk appetite resulted in annual equivalent inflation of 2.0 percent in Feb-Apr 2012. In the sixth wave, annual equivalent inflation dropped to minus 5.1 percent in May-Jul 2012. In the seventh wave, annual equivalent inflation jumped to 2.4 percent in Aug-Sep 2012. In the eighth wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 3.0 percent in Oct-Nov 2012 in a new round of risk aversion. In the ninth wave, annual equivalent inflation returned at 3.3 percent in Dec 2012-Sep 2013. In the tenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 0.6 percent in Oct-Nov 2013. In the eleventh wave, annual equivalent inflation was 3.0 percent in Dec 2013-Jan 2014. In the twelfth wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 1.2 percent in Feb-Mar 2014. In the thirteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was 11.6 percent in Apr-Jul 2014 almost entirely because of the increase in the tax on value added of consumption. In the fourteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 4.5 percent in Aug-Dec 2014. In the fifteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation fell at 7.6 percent in Jan-Feb 2015. In the sixteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was 1.6 percent in Mar-May 2015. In the seventeenth wave, annual equivalent inflation fell at 3.0 percent in Jun-Jul 2015. In the eighteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation fell at 7.0 percent in Aug-Oct 2015. In the nineteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 0.0 percent in Nov 2015. In the twentieth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at minus 8.6 percent in Dec 2015-Jan 2016. In the twenty-first wave, annual equivalent inflation was at minus 3.2 percent in Feb-Apr 2016. In the twenty-second wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 0.0 percent in May 2016. In the twenty-third wave, annual equivalent inflation was at minus 0.6 percent in Jun-Jul 2016. In the twenty-fourth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at minus 1.2 percent in Aug-Oct 2016. In the twenty-fifth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 7.0 percent in Nov 2016-Jan 2017. In the twenty-sixth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 2.8 percent in Feb-Apr 2017. In the twenty-seventh wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 0.6 percent in May-Jun 2017. In the twenty-eighth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 1.8 percent in Jul-Aug 2017. In the twenty-ninth wave, inflation was at annual equivalent 4.5 percent in Sep-Nov 2017. In the thirtieth wave, inflation was at annual equivalent 3.0 percent in Dec 2017-Jan 2018. In the thirty-first wave, inflation was at annual equivalent minus 0.6 percent in Feb-Mar 2018. In the thirty-second wave, inflation was at 4.9 percent annual equivalent in Apr-Jul 2018. In the thirty-third wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 0.0 percent in Aug 2018. In the thirty-fourth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 3.7 percent in Sep-Oct 2018. In the thirty-fifth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at minus 5.8 percent in Nov-2018-Jan 2019. In the thirty-sixth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 4.1 percent in Feb-Apr 2019. In the thirty-seventh wave, annual equivalent inflation was at minus 4.1 percent in May-Jun 2019. In the thirty-eighth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at minus 1.2 percent in Jul-Sep 2019. In the thirty-ninth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 14.0 percent in Oct 2019. In the fortieth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 1.2 percent in Nov 2019-Jan 2020. In the forty-first wave, annual equivalent inflation was at minus 9.7 percent in Feb-May 2020. In the forty-second wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 5.7 percent in Jun-Aug 2020. In the forty-third wave, annual equivalent inflation was at minus 2.4 percent in Sep 2020.

Table IV-5B, Japan, Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) ∆%

	Month	Year
Sep 2020	-0.2	-0.8
AE ∆% Sep	-2.4
Aug	0.1	-0.6
Jul	0.6	-0.9
Jun	0.7	-1.6
AE ∆% Jun-Aug	5.7
May	-0.5	-2.8
Apr	-1.6	-2.5
Mar	-0.9	-0.5
Feb	-0.4	0.7
AE ∆% Feb-May	-9.7
Jan	0.0	1.5
Dec 2019	0.2	0.9
Nov	0.1	0.1
AE ∆% Nov-Jan	1.2
Oct	1.1	-0.4
AE ∆% Oct	14.0
Sep	0.0	-1.1
Aug	-0.2	-0.9
Jul	-0.1	-0.7
AE ∆% Jul-Sep	-1.2
Jun	-0.6	-0.2
May	-0.1	0.7
AE ∆% May-Jun	-4.1
Apr	0.4	1.3
Mar	0.3	1.3
Feb	0.3	0.9
AE ∆% Feb-Apr	4.1
Jan	-0.5	0.6
Dec 2018	-0.6	1.4
Nov	-0.4	2.3
AE ∆% Nov-Jan	-5.8
Oct	0.4	3.0
Sep	0.2	3.0
AE ∆% Sep-Oct	3.7
Aug	0.0	3.1
AE ∆% Aug	0.0
Jul	0.4	3.1
Jun	0.3	2.9
May	0.5	2.7
Apr	0.4	2.2
AE ∆% Apr-Jul	4.9
Mar	-0.1	2.0
Feb	0.0	2.5
AE ∆% Feb-Mar	-0.6
Jan 2018	0.3	2.7
Dec 2017	0.2	3.0
AE ∆% Dec-Jan	3.0
Nov	0.4	3.5
Oct	0.4	3.5
Sep	0.3	3.0
AE ∆% Sep-Nov	4.5
Aug	0.0	2.8
Jul	0.2	2.5
AE ∆% Jul-Aug	1.8
Jun	0.1	2.2
May	0.0	2.1
AE ∆% May-Jun	0.6
Apr	0.2	2.1
Mar	0.3	1.4
Feb	0.2	1.0
AE ∆% Feb-Apr	2.8
Jan	0.6	0.5
Dec 2016	0.7	-1.2
Nov	0.4	-2.3
AE ∆% Nov-Jan	7.0
Oct	-0.1	-2.7
Sep	0.1	-3.3
Aug	-0.3	-3.8
AE ∆% Aug-Oct	-1.2
Jul	-0.1	-4.2
Jun	0.0	-4.5
AE ∆% Jun-Jul	-0.6
May	0.0	-4.6
AE ∆% May	0.0
Apr	-0.4	-4.4
Mar	-0.1	-4.0
Feb	-0.3	-3.7
AE ∆% Feb-Apr	-3.2
Jan	-1.1	-3.4
Dec 2015	-0.4	-3.5
AE ∆% Dec-Jan	-8.6
Nov	0.0	-3.6
AE ∆% Nov	0.0
Oct	-0.7	-3.8
Sep	-0.4	-4.1
Aug	-0.7	-3.8
AE ∆% Aug-Oct	-7.0
Jul	-0.4	-3.2
Jun	-0.1	-2.4
AE ∆% Jun-Jul	-3.0
May	0.2	-2.2
Apr	0.0	-2.1
Mar	0.2	0.7
AE ∆% Mar-May	1.6
Feb	0.0	0.5
Jan	-1.3	0.3
AE ∆% Jan-Feb	-7.6
Dec 2014	-0.5	1.8
Nov	-0.2	2.6
Oct	-1.0	2.8
Sep	-0.1	3.6
Aug	-0.1	4.0
AE ∆% Aug-Dec	-4.5
Jul	0.4	4.4
Jun	0.1	4.6
May	0.3	4.4
Apr	2.9	4.3
AE ∆% Apr-Jul	11.6
Mar	0.0	1.7
Feb	-0.2	1.8
AE ∆% Feb-Mar	-1.2
Jan	0.2	2.5
Dec 2013	0.3	2.5
AE ∆% Dec-Jan	3.0
Nov	0.0	2.6
Oct	-0.2	2.5
AE ∆% Oct-Nov	-0.6
Sep	0.3	2.2
Aug	0.3	2.3
Jul	0.5	2.1
Jun	0.0	1.1
May	0.1	0.6
Apr	0.4	0.1
Mar	0.1	-0.5
Feb	0.4	-0.1
Jan	0.2	-0.3
Dec 2012	0.4	-0.6
AE ∆% Dec-Sep	3.3
Nov	-0.1	-1.0
Oct	-0.4	-1.0
AE ∆% Oct-Nov	-3.0
Sep	0.3	-1.4
Aug	0.1	-1.9
AE ∆% Aug-Sep	2.4
Jul	-0.4	-2.1
Jun	-0.5	-1.4
May	-0.4	-0.9
AE ∆% May-Jul	-5.1
Apr	-0.2	-0.7
Mar	0.5	0.3
Feb	0.2	0.3
AE ∆% Feb-Apr	2.0
Jan	-0.1	0.2
Dec 2011	0.0	0.7
AE ∆% Dec-Jan	-0.6
Nov	-0.1	1.2
Oct	-0.8	1.2
Sep	-0.2	2.0
Aug	-0.1	2.2
Jul	0.3	2.2
AE ∆% Jul-Nov	-2.1
Jun	0.0	1.8
May	-0.2	1.5
AE ∆% May-Jun	-1.2
Apr	0.8	1.7
Mar	0.5	1.2
Feb	0.1	0.7
Jan	0.4	0.6
AE ∆% Jan-Apr	5.5
Dec 2010	0.5	0.8
Nov	-0.1	0.4
Oct	-0.1	0.5
Sep	0.0	-0.1
Aug	-0.1	0.0
Jul	0.0	0.0
Calendar Year
2019		0.2
2018		2.6
2017		2.3
2016		-3.5
2015		-2.3
2014		3.2
2013		1.2
2012		-0.9
2011		1.4
2010		-0.1
2009		-5.2
2008		4.6
2007		1.7
2006		2.2
2005		1.6
2004		1.3
2003		-0.9
2002		-2.0
2001		-2.3

Source: Bank of Japan

http://www.boj.or.jp/en/statistics/index.htm/

Chart IV-1B provides 12-month percentage changes of the Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) of Japan from 1970 to 2020. Percentage changes of inflation of services are not as sharp as for goods. Japan had the same sharp waves of inflation during the 1970s as in the US (see Chart IV-5A and associated table at: 6/28/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/06/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

5/24/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/05/recovery-without-hiring-twenty-million.html

5/3/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/05/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_78.html

3/22/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/03/sharp-contraction-of-valuations-of-risk.html

2/23/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/declining-valuations-of-risk-financial.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/01/declining-valuations-of-risk-financial.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/oscillating-valuations-of-risk.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/oscillating-risk-financial-assets-world.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/dollar-depreciation-fluctuating.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/uncertain-fomc-outlook-of-monetary.html

https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/contraction-of-valuations-of-risk.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/global-manufacturing-stress-world.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/06/fomc-outlook-uncertainty-central-bank.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/05/contraction-of-risk-financial-assets.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/04/high-levels-of-valuations-of-risk.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/03/inverted-yield-curve-of-treasury.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/02/revaluation-of-yuanus-dollar-exchange.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/01/delays-in-updating-united-states.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/12/increase-of-interest-rates-by-monetary.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/11/weaker-world-economic-growth-with.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/10/contraction-of-valuations-of-risk.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/09/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/08/revision-of-united-states-national.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/07/continuing-gradual-increases-in-fed.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/dollar-strengthening-world-inflation.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/04/dollar-appreciation-mediocre-cyclical.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_31.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/twenty-four-million-unemployed-or.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/dollar-devaluation-cyclically.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/dollar-revaluation-and-increase-of.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/destruction-of-household-nonfinancial.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/dollar-devaluation-and-interest-rate.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/data-dependent-monetary-policy-with_30.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/dollar-devaluation-and-rising-yields.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/04/dollar-devaluation-mediocre-cyclical.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/04/mediocre-cyclical-economic-growth-with.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/rules-versus-discretionary-authorities.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/dollar-revaluation-rising-yields-and.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/10/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_30.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/10/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/and-as-ever-economic-outlook-is.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/business-fixed-investment-has-been-soft.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/financial-asset-values-rebound-from.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/appropriate-for-fed-to-increase.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/contraction-of-united-states-corporate.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/closely-monitoring-global-economic-and.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/dollar-revaluation-and-decreasing.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/dollar-revaluation-constraining.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-increase-considered.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-increase-considered.htmlhttp://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/monetary-policy-designed-on-measurable.html

http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/fluctuations-of-global-financial.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/turbulence-of-valuations-of-financial_77.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/international-valuations-of-financial_29.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/dollar-revaluation-squeezing-corporate_97.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/dollar-devaluation-and-carry-trade.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitical-and-financial-risks_71.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-uncertainty-mediocre-cyclical_8145.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/collapse-of-united-states-dynamism-of.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/exit-risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world_1.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/twenty-eight-million-unemployed-or_561.html and at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/increasing-interest-rate-risk_1.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/07/recovery-without-jobs-stagnating-real_09.html).

  Behavior of the CGPI of Japan in the 1970s mirrors the Great Inflation episode in the United States with waves of inflation rising to two digits. Both political pressures and errors abounded in the unhappy stagflation of the 1970s also known as the US Great Inflation (see http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2011/05/slowing-growth-global-inflation-great.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2011/04/new-economics-of-rose-garden-turned.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2011/03/is-there-second-act-of-us-great.html  and Appendix I The Great Inflation; see Taylor 1993, 1997, 1998LB, 1999, 2012FP, 2012Mar27, 2012Mar28, 2012JMCB and http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/rules-versus-discretionary-authorities.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/06/rules-versus-discretionary-authorities.html). Inflation also collapsed in the beginning of the 1980s because of tight monetary policy in the US with focus on inflation instead of on the gap of actual relative to potential output. The areas in shade correspond to the dates of cyclical recessions. The salient event is the sharp rise of inflation of the domestic goods CGPI in 2008 during the global recession that was mostly the result of carry trades from fed funds rates collapsing to zero to long positions in commodity futures in an environment of relaxed financial risk appetite. The panic of toxic assets in banks to be withdrawn by the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) (Cochrane and Zingales 2009) drove unusual risk aversion with unwinding of carry trades of exposures in commodities and other risk financial assets. Carry trades returned once TARP was clarified as providing capital to financial institutions and stress tests verified the soundness of US banks. The return of carry trades explains the rise of CGPI inflation after mid-2009. Inflation of the CGPI fluctuated with zero interest rates in alternating episodes of risk aversion and risk appetite.

Year-on-year percentage changes of the US PPI from 1970 to 2019 are in Chart IV-2B of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics as in Chart IV-1B with the domestic goods CGPI. The behavior of the CGPI of Japan in the 1970s is quite similar to that of the US PPI. The US producer price index increased with the CGPI driven by the period of one percent fed funds rates from 2003 to 2004 inducing carry trades into commodity futures and other risk financial assets and the slow adjustment in increments of 25 basis points at every FOMC meeting from Jun 2004 to Jun 2006. There is also the same increase in inflation in 2008 during the global recession followed by collapse of unwinding positions during risk aversion and new rise of inflation during risk appetite.

Chart IV-1B, Japan, Domestic Corporate Goods Price and Services Index, Year-on-Year Percentage Change, 1970-2020

Notes: Blue: Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index All Commodities; Red: Corporate Price Services Index

Source: Bank of Japan

https://www.stat-search.boj.or.jp/index_en.html

Year-on-year percentage changes of the US PPI from 1970 to 2020 are in Chart IV-2B of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics as in Chart IV-1B with the domestic goods CGPI. The behavior of the CGPI of Japan in the 1970s is quite similar to that of the US PPI. The US producer price index increased with the CGPI driven by the period of one percent fed funds rates from 2003 to 2004 inducing carry trades into commodity futures and other risk financial assets and the slow adjustment in increments of 25 basis points at every FOMC meeting from Jun 2004 to Jun 2006. There is also the same increase in inflation in 2008 during the global recession followed by collapse of unwinding positions during risk aversion and new rise of inflation during risk appetite.

Chart IV-2B, US, Producer Price Index Finished Goods, Year-on-Year Percentage Change, 1970-2020

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/ppi

Table IV-5C provides annual percentage changes of the producer price indexes of Japan and the United States. There is similar behavior of the indexes until the 1980s when Japan began to experience frequent and deeper declines of producer prices. There is similar behavior during the global recession. Japan’s producer prices increased 4.6 percent in 2008 and US producer prices increased 6.3 percent mostly because of increases of commodity prices by carry trades from policy rates approaching zero.

Table IV-5C, Annual Percentage Changes of Japan’s Corporate Goods Price Index and United States Producer Price Index 1971-2019

	Japan’s Corporate Goods Price Index Annual ∆%	United States Producer Price Index Annual ∆%
1970	3.4	3.4
1971	-0.8	3.1
1972	1.7	3.2
1973	15.7	9.1
1974	27.5	15.4
1975	2.8	10.6
1976	5.5	4.5
1977	3.3	6.4
1978	-0.5	7.9
1979	5.0	11.2
1980	15.0	13.4
1981	1.3	9.2
1982	0.5	4.1
1983	-0.6	1.6
1984	0.1	2.1
1985	-0.8	1.0
1986	-4.7	-1.4
1987	-3.1	2.1
1988	-0.5	2.5
1989	1.9	5.2
1990	1.5	4.9
1991	1.0	2.1
1992	-0.9	1.2
1993	-1.6	1.2
1994	-1.6	0.6
1995	-0.8	1.9
1996	-1.7	2.7
1997	0.7	0.4
1998	-1.6	-0.8
1999	-1.4	1.8
2000	0.0	3.8
2001	-2.3	2.0
2002	-2.0	-1.3
2003	-0.9	3.2
2004	1.3	3.6
2005	1.6	4.8
2006	2.2	3.0
2007	1.7	3.9
2008	4.6	6.3
2009	-5.4	-2.6
2010	-0.1	4.2
2011	1.4	6.1
2012	-0.9	1.9
2013	1.2	1.2
2014	3.2	1.9
2015	-2.3	-3.2
2016	-3.5	-1.0
2017	2.3	3.2
2018	2.6	3.1
2019	0.2	0.8

Source: Bank of Japan

https://www.stat-search.boj.or.jp/ssi/cgi-bin/famecgi2?cgi=$nme_a000_en&lstSelection=PR01

https://www.bls.gov/ppi/data.htm

Finer detail is in Chart IV-3 of the domestic CGPI from 2008 to 2020. The CGPI rose almost vertically in 2008 as the collapse of fed funds rates toward zero drove exposures in commodities and other risk financial assets because of risk appetite originating in the belief that the financial crisis was restricted to structured financial products and not to contracts negotiated in commodities and other exchanges. The panic with toxic assets in banks to be removed by TARP (Cochrane and Zingales 2009) caused unwinding carry trades in flight to US government obligations that drove down commodity prices and price indexes worldwide. Apparent resolution of the European debt crisis of 2010 drove risk appetite in 2011 with new carry trades from zero fed funds rates into commodity futures and other risk financial assets. Domestic CGPI inflation returned in waves with upward slopes during risk appetite and downward slopes during risk aversion. Yen devaluation promoted by monetary and fiscal policy translates imported inputs in higher domestic prices. The increase in the tax on value added of consumption caused the sharp increase in Apr-Jun 2014. The CGPI declines in Aug-Dec 2014 and Jan 2015, stabilizing in Feb and increasing in Mar-May 2015. The CGPI fell in Jun-Dec 2015 and in Jan-Apr 2016, increasing in May 2016 and decreasing in Jun 2016. The CGPI stabilized in Jul 2016 and decreased in Aug 2016, stabilizing in Sep 2016, and decreasing in Oct 2016. The CGPI increased in Nov 2016-Apr 2017, stabilizing in May-Jun 2017 and increasing in Jul 2017. The CGPI stabilized in Aug 2017, increasing in Sep-Dec 2017 and Jan 2018. The CGPI increased in Feb 2018, decreasing in Mar 2018. The CGPIS increased in Apr-Jul 2018 and stabilized in Aug 2018. The CGPI increased in Sep-Oct 2018, decreasing in Nov 2018-Jan 2019. The CGPI increased in Feb-Apr 2019, decreasing in May-Jun 2019. The CGPI stabilized in Jul 2019, decreasing in Aug 2019. The CGPI stabilized in Sep 2019, increasing in Oct-Dec 2019 and increasing in Jan 2020. The CGPI decreased in Feb-May 2020. The CGPI increased in Jun-Aug 2020. The CGPI decreased in Sep 2020.

Chart IV-3, Japan, Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index, Monthly, 2008-2020

Source: Bank of Japan

https://www.stat-search.boj.or.jp/index_en.html

There is similar behavior of the US producer price index from 2008 to 2020 in Chart IV-4 as in the domestic CGPI in Chart IV-3. A major difference is the strong long-term trend in the US producer price index with oscillations originating mostly in bouts of risk aversion such as the downward slope in the final segment in Chart IV-4 followed by increasing slope during periods of risk appetite. Carry trades from zero interest rates to commodity futures and other risk financial assets drive the upward trend of the US producer price index while oscillations originate in alternating episodes of risk aversion and risk appetite. Prices are declining followed by increases with oscillations in the flight from and into commodity exposures. Prices decreased in Apr 2020, increasing in May-Jul 2020, decreasing in Aug 2020 and stabilizing in Sep 2020, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.

Chart IV-4, US, Producer Price Index Finished Goods, Monthly, 2008-2020

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/ppi

There was milder increase in Japan’s export corporate goods price index during the global recession in 2008 but similar sharp decline during the bank balance sheets effect in late 2008, as shown in Chart IV-5 of the Bank of Japan. Japan exports industrial goods whose prices have been less dynamic than those of commodities and raw materials. As a result, the export CGPI on the yen basis in Chart IV-5 trends down with oscillations after a brief rise in the final part of the recession in 2009. The export corporate goods price index on the yen basis fell from 93.9 in Jun 2009 to 84.1 in Jan 2012 or minus 10.4 percent and increased to 90.0 in Sep 2020 for gain of 7.0 percent relative to Jan 2012 and decrease of 4.2 percent relative to Jun 2009. The choice of Jun 2009 is designed to capture the reversal of risk aversion beginning in Sep 2008 with the announcement of toxic assets in banks that would be withdrawn with the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) (Cochrane and Zingales 2009). Reversal of risk aversion in the form of flight to the USD and obligations of the US government opened the way to renewed carry trades from zero interest rates to exposures in risk financial assets such as commodities. Japan exports industrial products and imports commodities and raw materials. The recovery from the global recession began in the third quarter of 2009.

Chart IV-5, Japan, Export Corporate Goods Price Index, Monthly, Yen Basis, 2008-2020

Source: Bank of Japan

https://www.stat-search.boj.or.jp/index_en.html

Chart IV-5A provides the export corporate goods price index on the basis of the contract currency. The export corporate goods price index on the basis of the contract currency increased from 105.9 in Jun 2009 to 111.5 in Apr 2012 or 5.3 percent but dropped to 97.6 in Sep 2020 or minus 12.5 percent relative to Apr 2012 and fell 7.8 percent to 97.6 in Sep 2020 relative to Jun 2009.

Chart IV-5A, Japan, Export Corporate Goods Price Index, Monthly, Contract Currency Basis, 2008-2020

Source: Bank of Japan

https://www.stat-search.boj.or.jp/index_en.html

Japan imports primary commodities and raw materials. As a result, the import corporate goods price index on the yen basis in Chart IV-6 shows an upward trend after declining from the increase during the global recession in 2008 driven by carry trades from fed funds rates. The index increases with carry trades from zero interest rates into commodity futures and declines during risk aversion from late 2008 into beginning of 2008 originating in doubts about soundness of US bank balance sheets. Measurement that is more careful should show that the terms of trade of Japan, export prices relative to import prices, declined during the commodity shocks originating in unconventional monetary policy. The decline of the terms of trade restricted potential growth of income in Japan (for the relation of terms of trade and growth see Pelaez 1979, 1976a). The import corporate goods price index on the yen basis increased from 82.4 in Jun 2009 to 99.6 in Apr 2012 or 20.9 percent and to 82.6 in Sep 2020 or decrease of 17.1 percent relative to Apr 2012 and increase of 0.2 percent relative to Jun 2009. There are strong downward effects on input prices in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.

Chart IV-6, Japan, Import Corporate Goods Price Index, Monthly, Yen Basis, 2008-2020

Source: Bank of Japan

https://www.stat-search.boj.or.jp/index_en.html

Chart IV-6A provides the import corporate goods price index on the contract currency basis. The import corporate goods price index on the basis of the contract currency increased from 95.0 in Jun 2009 to 131.6 in Apr 2012 or 38.5 percent and to 91.0 in Sep 2020 or minus 30.9 percent relative to Apr 2012 and decrease of 4.2 percent relative to Jun 2009. There is evident deterioration of the terms of trade of Japan: the export corporate goods price index on the basis of the contract currency decreased 7.8 percent from Jun 2009 to Sep 2020 while the import corporate goods price index decreased 4.2 percent. Prices of Japan’s exports of corporate goods, mostly industrial products, increased only 5.3 percent from Jun 2009 to Apr 2012, while imports of corporate goods, mostly commodities and raw materials, increased 38.5 percent. Unconventional monetary policy induces carry trades from zero interest rates to exposures in commodities that squeeze economic activity of industrial countries by increases in prices of imported commodities and raw materials during periods without risk aversion. Reversals of carry trades during periods of risk aversion decrease prices of exported commodities and raw materials that squeeze economic activity in economies exporting commodities and raw materials. Devaluation of the dollar by unconventional monetary policy could increase US competitiveness in world markets but economic activity is squeezed by increases in prices of imported commodities and raw materials. Unconventional monetary policy causes instability worldwide instead of the mission of central banks of promoting financial and economic stability. There are strong downward effects on input prices in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.

Chart IV-6A, Japan, Import Corporate Goods Price Index, Monthly, Contract Currency Basis, 2008-2020

Source: Bank of Japan

https://www.stat-search.boj.or.jp/index_en.html

Table IV-6B provides the Bank of Japan’s Corporate Goods Price indexes of exports and imports on the yen and contract bases from Jan 2008 to Jul 2020. There are oscillations of the indexes that are shown vividly in the four charts above. For the entire period from Jan 2008 to Sep 2020, the export index on the contract currency basis decreased 9.0 percent and decreased 12.9 percent on the yen basis. For the entire period from Jan 2008 to Sep 2020, the import price index decreased 17.9 percent on the contract currency basis and decreased 21.2 percent on the yen basis. During significant part of the expansion period, prices of Japan’s exports of corporate goods on the contract currency, mostly industrial products, increased only 5.3 percent from Jun 2009 to Apr 2012, while prices of imports of corporate goods on the contract currency, mostly commodities and raw materials, increased 38.5 percent. The charts show sharp deteriorations in relative prices of exports to prices of imports during multiple periods. Price margins of Japan’s producers are subject to periodic squeezes resulting from carry trades from zero interest rates of monetary policy to exposures in commodities. There are strong downward effects on input prices in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.

Table IV-6B, Japan, Exports and Imports Corporate Goods Price Index, Contract Currency Basis and Yen Basis

	X-CC	X-Y	M-CC	M-Y
2008/01	107.3	103.3	110.9	104.8
2008/02	107.9	103.9	112.8	106.2
2008/03	108.7	100.7	115.1	103.4
2008/04	109.9	103.2	121.3	110.3
2008/05	110.7	105	124.9	114.9
2008/06	111.9	108	131.6	123.6
2008/07	113.2	109.2	135	126.8
2008/08	112.1	109.2	135.6	129.5
2008/09	111	105.8	129	120.8
2008/10	108.3	98.1	120.2	107
2008/11	106.6	93.5	107.7	93.2
2008/12	105.9	90	98.4	81.9
2009/01	106	89	94.3	77.9
2009/02	105.4	89.6	94.4	79
2009/03	105.2	93.2	93.8	81.9
2009/04	105.5	94.5	93	81.9
2009/05	105.4	92.9	92.5	80
2009/06	105.9	93.9	95	82.4
2009/07	105.4	92.2	98.3	83.7
2009/08	106.3	93.4	98.7	84.4
2009/09	106.3	91.4	100.2	83.4
2009/10	106	90.5	100.2	82.8
2009/11	106.4	90.2	102.2	83.5
2009/12	106.3	90.1	105.1	85.9
2010/01	107.5	91.4	106.8	88.1
2010/02	107.8	90.9	107.5	87.9
2010/03	107.8	91.1	106.8	87.4
2010/04	108.7	93.6	110	92.1
2010/05	108.9	92.1	112	92.4
2010/06	108.2	90.9	110.2	90.1
2010/07	107.5	88.6	110	87.9
2010/08	107.2	87.1	109.6	85.9
2010/09	107.5	86.8	110.2	85.6
2010/10	108.2	86.3	110.7	84.4
2010/11	108.9	87.1	113	86.5
2010/12	109.4	88	115	88.6
2011/01	110.4	88.2	118.1	90.4
2011/02	111.3	89	120.1	91.9
2011/03	111.9	89.1	123.2	93.6
2011/04	112.6	91	127.7	98.6
2011/05	112.3	89.4	130.9	99
2011/06	112.2	88.8	129.4	97.3
2011/07	112	88	130.3	97.1
2011/08	112	86.4	130.6	95.2
2011/09	112.1	86	128.9	93.6
2011/10	111.4	85.2	128.4	93
2011/11	110.2	84.8	127.1	92.8
2011/12	109.7	84.6	127.9	93.6
2012/01	110.1	84.1	126.7	91.8
2012/02	110.7	85.7	127.6	93.7
2012/03	111.3	88.8	130.3	99.5
2012/04	111.5	88.3	131.6	99.6
2012/05	110.6	86.2	130.1	96.7
2012/06	109.6	85	126.9	94
2012/07	108.8	84.1	123.4	91.2
2012/08	109.1	84.2	123.8	91.3
2012/09	109.2	84.2	126.3	92.7
2012/10	109.3	84.7	125.4	92.7
2012/11	109.1	85.8	124.7	93.8
2012/12	108.9	87.7	124.9	96.5
2013/01	109.2	91.6	125.4	101.7
2013/02	109.7	94.8	126.5	105.9
2013/03	109.5	95.4	126.8	107.5
2013/04	108.3	96.2	125.7	109.1
2013/05	107.7	97.6	124	110.4
2013/06	107.3	94.9	123.4	106.8
2013/07	107.2	96.2	122.9	108.2
2013/08	107	94.9	123.2	106.9
2013/09	107	95.9	124.5	109.2
2013/10	107.3	95.5	124.6	108.3
2013/11	107.2	96.6	124.6	110
2013/12	107.2	98.8	125.4	113.6
2014/01	107.3	99	126	114.6
2014/02	106.9	97.7	125.4	112.5
2014/03	106.6	97.6	124.9	112.2
2014/04	106.3	97.5	124.1	111.8
2014/05	106.2	96.8	123.8	110.9
2014/06	105.9	96.7	123.9	111.2
2014/07	106	96.5	123.9	110.9
2014/08	106.1	97.3	123.7	111.6
2014/09	105.9	99.3	122.8	114
2014/10	105.2	99.1	120.7	112.7
2014/11	104.8	103.4	117.8	115.9
2014/12	103.8	104.1	113.8	114
2015/01	102.2	101.2	108.2	106.6
2015/02	101.2	100.1	102.1	100.7
2015/03	101.3	100.9	103.1	102.6
2015/04	101.1	100.2	102	101
2015/05	101.4	101.4	101.6	101.5
2015/06	101.3	102.9	102.5	104.3
2015/07	100.6	101.7	101.5	102.9
2015/08	99.8	100.9	99	100.4
2015/09	98.6	98.2	96.6	96.2
2015/10	97.9	97.3	95.5	95
2015/11	97.5	98	94.9	95.7
2015/12	97.1	97.3	92.9	93.2
2016/01	96.4	94.7	89.9	88.3
2016/02	95.9	92.7	87.5	84.4
2016/03	96.1	92	87.3	83.2
2016/04	96.4	91	88.2	82.4
2016/05	96.5	90.6	88.6	82.4
2016/06	96.5	88.8	89.9	81.6
2016/07	96.9	88.2	90.8	81.5
2016/08	96.9	87.1	90.7	79.9
2016/09	97	87.5	91.1	80.7
2016/10	97.4	88.6	91.1	81.6
2016/11	98.1	91.2	93.8	86.3
2016/12	98.7	95.5	93.7	90.5
2017/01	99.4	95.6	96.1	92.1
2017/02	99.8	95.3	97.6	92.5
2017/03	100.3	95.7	98.4	93.3
2017/04	99.8	93.7	98.3	91.4
2017/05	99.4	94.6	98.1	92.6
2017/06	99.2	93.9	97.1	91
2017/07	99.3	94.9	96.3	91.2
2017/08	99.9	94.4	96.5	90.1
2017/09	100.5	95.5	97.8	91.8
2017/10	101.2	97.2	99.2	94.3
2017/11	101.5	97.4	100.3	95.4
2017/12	101.7	97.7	102.1	97.1
2018/01	101.9	97.1	102.9	96.7
2018/02	102.4	96.1	104.9	96.6
2018/03	102.6	95.2	104.4	94.9
2018/04	102.2	95.5	104.7	96.1
2018/05	102.7	96.9	106.3	98.8
2018/06	102.7	97	108.3	100.8
2018/07	102.4	97.4	108.3	101.8
2018/08	102.3	97	108	101.2
2018/09	102.2	97.4	108	101.8
2018/10	102.4	97.9	109.2	103.5
2018/11	102.1	97.9	109.7	104.3
2018/12	100.8	96.2	105.8	100.1
2019/01	100	93.7	102.6	94.8
2019/02	100.1	94.6	102.7	95.8
2019/03	100.4	95.3	103.6	97.2
2019/04	100.6	95.7	103.6	97.5
2019/05	100.5	94.4	104.5	97
2019/06	99.7	92.8	103.5	95
2019/07	99.3	92.6	101.4	93.2
2019/08	99.3	91.4	102.2	92.6
2019/09	98.7	91.4	100.7	91.9
2019/10	98.7	91.7	100.6	92.3
2019/11	98.5	92	100.3	92.5
2019/12	98.3	92	101.1	93.5
2020/01	98.6	92.4	101.6	94
2020/02	98.6	92.5	101.3	94.1
2020/03	97.9	90.4	98.1	89.6
2020/04	96.6	89.5	91.9	84.3
2020/05	95.6	88.3	86.6	79.3
2020/06	95.9	89	87	79.9
2020/07	96.8	89.6	89.2	81.5
2020/08	97.3	89.9	90.6	82.4
2020/09	97.6	90	91	82.6

Note: X-CC: Exports Contract Currency; X-Y: Exports Yen; M-CC: Imports Contract; M-Y: Imports Yen

Source: Bank of Japan

https://www.stat-search.boj.or.jp/index_en.html

Japan also experienced sharp increase in inflation during the 1970s as in the episode of the Great Inflation in the US. Monetary policy focused on accommodating higher inflation, with emphasis solely on the mandate of promoting employment, has been blamed as deliberate or because of model error or imperfect measurement for creating the Great Inflation (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2011/05/slowing-growth-global-inflation-great.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2011/04/new-economics-of-rose-garden-turned.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2011/03/is-there-second-act-of-us-great.html  and Appendix I The Great Inflation; see Taylor 1993, 1997, 1998LB, 1999, 2012FP, 2012Mar27, 2012Mar28, 2012JMCB and http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/rules-versus-discretionary-authorities.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/06/rules-versus-discretionary-authorities.html). A remarkable similarity with US experience is the sharp rise of the CGPI of Japan in 2008 driven by carry trades from policy interest rates rapidly falling to zero to exposures in commodity futures during a global recession. Japan had the same sharp waves of consumer price inflation during the 1970s as in the US (see Chart IV-5A and associated table at: 6/28/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/06/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html 5/24/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/05/recovery-without-hiring-twenty-million.html

5/3/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/05/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_78.html

3/22/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/03/sharp-contraction-of-valuations-of-risk.html 2/23/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/declining-valuations-of-risk-financial.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/01/declining-valuations-of-risk-financial.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/oscillating-valuations-of-risk.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/oscillating-risk-financial-assets-world.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/dollar-depreciation-fluctuating.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/uncertain-fomc-outlook-of-monetary.html

https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/contraction-of-valuations-of-risk.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/global-manufacturing-stress-world.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/06/fomc-outlook-uncertainty-central-bank.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/05/contraction-of-risk-financial-assets.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/04/high-levels-of-valuations-of-risk.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/03/inverted-yield-curve-of-treasury.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/02/revaluation-of-yuanus-dollar-exchange.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/01/delays-in-updating-united-states.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/12/increase-of-interest-rates-by-monetary.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/11/weaker-world-economic-growth-with.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/10/contraction-of-valuations-of-risk.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/09/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/08/revision-of-united-states-national.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/07/continuing-gradual-increases-in-fed.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/dollar-strengthening-world-inflation.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/04/dollar-appreciation-mediocre-cyclical.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_31.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/twenty-four-million-unemployed-or.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/dollar-devaluation-cyclically.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/dollar-revaluation-and-increase-of.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/destruction-of-household-nonfinancial.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/dollar-devaluation-and-interest-rate.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/data-dependent-monetary-policy-with_30.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/dollar-devaluation-and-rising-yields.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/04/dollar-devaluation-mediocre-cyclical.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/04/mediocre-cyclical-economic-growth-with.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/rules-versus-discretionary-authorities.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/dollar-revaluation-rising-yields-and.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/10/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_30.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/10/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/and-as-ever-economic-outlook-is.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/business-fixed-investment-has-been-soft.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/financial-asset-values-rebound-from.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/appropriate-for-fed-to-increase.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/contraction-of-united-states-corporate.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/closely-monitoring-global-economic-and.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/dollar-revaluation-and-decreasing.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/dollar-revaluation-constraining.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-increase-considered.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-increase-considered.htmlhttp://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/monetary-policy-designed-on-measurable.html

http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/fluctuations-of-global-financial.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/turbulence-of-valuations-of-financial_77.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/international-valuations-of-financial_29.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/dollar-revaluation-squeezing-corporate_97.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/dollar-devaluation-and-carry-trade.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitical-and-financial-risks_71.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-uncertainty-mediocre-cyclical_8145.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/collapse-of-united-states-dynamism-of.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/exit-risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world_1.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/twenty-eight-million-unemployed-or_561.html and at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/increasing-interest-rate-risk_1.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/07/recovery-without-jobs-stagnating-real_09.html).

Chart IV-7, Japan, Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index, Monthly, 1960-2020

Source: Bank of Japan

https://www.stat-search.boj.or.jp/index_en.html

The producer price index of the US from 1960 to 2020 in Chart IV-8 shows various periods of more rapid or less rapid inflation but no bumps. The major event is the decline in 2008 when risk aversion because of the global recession caused the collapse of oil prices from $148/barrel to less than $80/barrel with most other commodity prices also collapsing. The event had nothing in common with explanations of deflation but rather with the concentration of risk exposures in commodities after the decline of stock market indexes. Eventually, there was a flight to government securities because of the fears of insolvency of banks caused by statements supporting proposals for withdrawal of toxic assets from bank balance sheets in the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), as explained by Cochrane and Zingales (2009). The bump in 2008 with decline in 2009 is consistent with the view that zero interest rates with subdued risk aversion induce carry trades into commodity futures.

Chart IV-8, US, Producer Price Index Finished Goods, Monthly, 1960-2020

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/ppi/

China is experiencing similar inflation behavior as the advanced economies in several prior months in the form of declining commodity prices but differs in decreasing inflation of producer prices relative to a year earlier. As shown in Table IV-9, inflation of the price indexes for industry in Sep 2020 is 0.1 percent; 12-month inflation is minus 2.1 percent in Sep; and cumulative inflation in Jan-Sep 2020 relative to Jan-Sep 2019 is minus 2.0 percent. Inflation of segments in Sep 2020 in China is in Table IV-9 in column “Month Sep 2020 ∆%.” There was increase of prices of mining & quarrying of 0.6 percent in Sep and decrease of 4.8 percent in 12 months. Prices of consumer goods decreased 0.1 percent in Sep and decreased 0.1 percent in 12 months. Prices of inputs in the purchaser price index increased 0.4 percent in Sep and decreased 2.3 percent in 12 months. Fuel and power prices increased 0.5 percent in Sep and decreased 9.3 percent in 12 months. An important category of inputs for exports is prices of textile raw materials, changing minus 0.1 percent in Sep and decreasing 3.8 percent in 12 months.

Table IV-9, China, Price Indexes for Industry ∆%

	Month Sep 2020 ∆%	12-Month Sep 2020 ∆%	Jan-Sep 2020/Jan-Sep 2020 ∆%
I Producer Price Indexes	0.1	-2.1	-2.0
Means of Production	0.2	-2.8	-3.0
Mining & Quarrying	0.6	-4.8	-6.0
Raw Materials	0.3	-6.2	-6.1
Processing	0.1	-1.3	-1.5
Consumer Goods	-0.1	-0.1	0.8
Food	0.0	2.1	3.7
Clothing	-0.2	-1.7	-0.8
Daily Use Articles	-0.1	-0.8	-0.3
Durable Consumer Goods	-0.3	-1.9	-1.8
II Purchaser Price Indexes	0.4	-2.3	-2.6
Fuel and Power	0.5	-9.3	-8.5
Ferrous Metals	1.3	1.8	-0.7
Nonferrous Metals	0.9	2.9	-1.8
Chemical Raw Materials	0.6	-7.8	-8.1
Wood & Pulp	0.2	-0.8	-2.3
Building Materials	0.5	-1.0	0.9
Other Industrial Raw Materials	0.1	-0.1	-0.1
Agricultural	0.0	3.9	6.4
Textile Raw Materials	-0.1	-3.8	-3.5

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

China’s producer price inflation follows waves similar to those around the world but with declining trend since May 2012, which is oscillating, as shown in Table IV-10. In the first wave, annual equivalent inflation was 6.4 percent in Jan-Jun 2011, driven by carry trades from zero interest rates to commodity futures. In the second wave, risk aversion unwound carry trades, resulting in annual equivalent inflation of minus 3.1 percent in Jul-Nov 2011. In the third wave, renewed risk aversion resulted in annual equivalent inflation of minus 2.4 percent in Dec 2011-Jan 2012. In the fourth wave, new carry trades resulted in annual equivalent inflation of 2.4 percent in Feb-Apr 2012. In the fifth wave, annual equivalent inflation is minus 5.8 percent in May-Sep 2012. There are declining producer prices in China in Aug-Sep 2012 in contrast with increases worldwide. In a sixth wave, producer prices increased 0.2 percent in Oct 2012, which is equivalent to 2.4 percent in a year. In a seventh wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 1.2 percent in Nov-Dec 2012. In the eighth wave, annual equivalent inflation in Jan-Feb 2013 is 2.4 percent. In the ninth wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 4.9 percent in Mar-Jul 2013. In the tenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was 1.8 percent in Aug-Sep 2013. In the eleventh wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 2.2 percent in Oct 2013-Oct 2014. In the twelfth wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 6.4 percent in Nov 2014-Dec 2015. In the thirteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation fell at 10.3 percent in Jan-Feb 2015. In the fourteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation fell at 2.0 percent in Mar-May 2015. In the fifteenth wave, producer prices fell at 7.3 percent annual equivalent in Jun-Aug 2015. In the sixteenth wave, producer prices fell at 5.6 percent in Sep-Dec 2015. In the seventeenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 4.7 percent in Jan-Feb 2016. In the eighteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was 7.0 percent in Mar-May 2016. In the nineteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 2.4 percent in Jun 2016. In the twentieth wave, annual equivalent inflation was 2.4 percent in Jul-Aug 2016. In the twenty-first wave, annual equivalent inflation was 11.3 percent in Sep-Oct 2016. In the twenty-second wave, annual equivalent inflation was 20.3 percent in Nov-Dec 2016. In the twenty-third wave, annual equivalent inflation was 7.0 percent in Jan-Mar 2017. In the twenty-fourth wave, producer prices fell at annual equivalent 3.5 percent in Apr-Jun 2017. In the twenty-fifth wave, annual equivalent producer price inflation was at 2.4 percent in Jul 2017. In the twenty-sixth wave, producer prices increased at 9.8 percent annual equivalent in Aug-Dec 2017. In the twenty-seventh wave, annual equivalent producer price inflation was at 3.7 percent in Jan 2018. In the twenty-eighth wave, annual equivalent producer price inflation in Feb-Apr 2018 was minus 2.0 percent. In the twenty-ninth wave, annual equivalent producer price inflation in May-Jul 2018 was at 3.2 percent. In the thirtieth wave, annual equivalent producer price inflation was at 5.7 percent in Aug-Oct 2018. In the thirty-first wave, annual equivalent producer price inflation was at minus 5.6 percent in Nov 2018-Feb 2019. In the thirty-second wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 2.4 percent in Mar-May 2019. In the thirty-third wave, annual equivalent inflation was at minus 2.4 percent in Jun-Aug 2019. In the thirty-fourth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 1.2 percent in Sep-Oct 2019. In the thirty-fifth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at minus 0.4 percent in Nov 2019-Jan 2020. In the thirty-sixth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at minus 9.2 percent in Feb-May 2020. In the thirty-seventh wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 4.9 percent in Jun-Jul 2020. In the thirty-eighth wave, annual equivalent inflation was 2.4 percent in Aug-Sep 2020.

Table IV-10, China, Month and 12-Month Rate of Change of Producer Price Index, ∆%

	12-Month ∆%	Month ∆%
Sep 2020	-2.1	0.1
Aug	-2.0	0.3
AE ∆% Aug-Sep		2.4
Jul	-2.4	0.4
Jun	-3.0	0.4
AE ∆% Jun-Jul		4.9
May	-3.7	-0.4
Apr	-3.1	-1.3
Mar	-1.5	-1.0
Feb	-0.4	-0.5
AE ∆% Feb-May		-9.2
Jan	0.1	0.0
Dec 2019	-0.5	0.0
Nov	-1.4	-0.1
AE ∆% Nov-Jan		-0.4
Oct	-1.6	0.1
Sep	-1.2	0.1
AE ∆% Sep-Oct		1.2
Aug	-0.8	-0.1
Jul	-0.3	-0.2
Jun	0.0	-0.3
AE ∆% Jun-Aug		-2.4
May	0.6	0.2
Apr	0.9	0.3
Mar	0.4	0.1
AE ∆% Mar-May		2.4
Feb	0.1	-0.1
Jan	0.1	-0.6
Dec 2018	0.9	-1.0
Nov	2.7	-0.2
AE ∆% Nov-Feb		-5.6
Oct	3.3	0.4
Sep	3.6	0.6
Aug	4.1	0.4
AE ∆% Aug-Oct		5.7
Jul	4.6	0.1
Jun	4.7	0.3
May	4.1	0.4
AE ∆% May-Jul		3.2
Apr	3.4	-0.2
Mar	3.1	-0.2
Feb	3.7	-0.1
AE ∆% Feb-Apr		-2.0
Jan	4.3	0.3
AE ∆% Jan		3.7
Dec 2017	4.9	0.8
Nov	5.8	0.5
Oct	6.9	0.7
Sep	6.9	1.0
Aug	6.3	0.9
AE ∆% Aug-Dec		9.8
Jul	5.5	0.2
AE ∆% Jul		2.4
Jun	5.5	-0.2
May	5.5	-0.3
Apr	6.4	-0.4
AE ∆% Apr-Jun		-3.5
Mar	7.6	0.3
Feb	7.8	0.6
Jan	6.9	0.8
AE ∆% Jan-Mar		7.0
Dec 2016	5.5	1.6
Nov	3.3	1.5
AE ∆% Nov-Dec		20.3
Oct	1.2	0.7
Sep	0.1	0.5
AE ∆% Sep-Oct		11.3
Aug	-0.8	0.2
Jul	-1.7	0.2
AE ∆% Jul-Aug		2.4
Jun	-2.6	-0.2
AE ∆% Jun		-2.4
May	-2.8	0.5
Apr	-3.4	0.7
Mar	-4.3	0.5
AE ∆% Mar-May		7.0
Feb	-4.9	-0.3
Jan	-5.3	-0.5
AE ∆% Jan-Feb		-4.7
Dec 2015	-5.9	-0.6
Nov	-5.9	-0.5
Oct	-5.9	-0.4
Sep	-5.9	-0.4
AE ∆% Sep-Dec		-5.6
Aug	-5.9	-0.8
Jul	-5.4	-0.7
Jun	-4.8	-0.4
AE ∆% Jun-Aug		-7.3
May	-4.6	-0.1
Apr	-4.6	-0.3
Mar	-4.6	-0.1
AE ∆% Mar-May		-2.0
Feb	-4.8	-0.7
Jan	-4.3	-1.1
AE ∆% Jan-Feb		-10.3
Dec 2014	-3.3	-0.6
Nov	-2.7	-0.5
AE ∆% Nov-Dec		-6.4
Oct	-2.2	-0.4
Sep	-1.8	-0.4
Aug	-1.2	-0.2
Jul	-0.9	-0.1
Jun	-1.1	-0.2
May	-1.4	-0.1
Apr	-2.0	-0.2
Mar	-2.3	-0.3
Feb	-2.0	-0.2
Jan	-1.6	-0.1
Dec 2013	-1.4	0.0
Nov	-1.4	0.0
Oct	-1.5	0.0
AE ∆% Oct-Oct		-2.2
Sep	-1.3	0.2
Aug	-1.6	0.1
AE ∆% Aug-Sep		1.8
Jul	-2.3	-0.3
Jun	-2.7	-0.6
May	-2.9	-0.6
Apr	-2.6	-0.6
Mar	-1.9	0.0
AE ∆% Mar-Jul		-4.9
Feb	-1.6	0.2
Jan	-1.6	0.2
AE ∆% Jan-Feb		2.4
Dec 2012	-1.9	-0.1
Nov	-2.2	-0.1
AE ∆% Nov-Dec		-1.2
Oct	-2.8	0.2
AE ∆% Oct		2.4
Sep	-3.6	-0.1
Aug	-3.5	-0.5
Jul	-2.9	-0.8
Jun	-2.1	-0.7
May	-1.4	-0.4
AE ∆% May-Sep		-5.8
Apr	-0.7	0.2
Mar	-0.3	0.3
Feb	0.0	0.1
AE ∆% Feb-Apr		2.4
Jan	0.7	-0.1
Dec 2011	1.7	-0.3
AE ∆% Dec-Jan		-2.4
Nov	2.7	-0.7
Oct	5.0	-0.7
Sep	6.5	0.0
Aug	7.3	0.1
Jul	7.5	0.0
AE ∆% Jul-Nov		-3.1
Jun	7.1	0.0
May	6.8	0.3
Apr	6.8	0.5
Mar	7.3	0.6
Feb	7.2	0.8
Jan	6.6	0.9
AE ∆% Jan-Jun		6.4
Dec 2010	5.9	0.7

AE: Annual Equivalent

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart IV-9 of the National Bureau of Statistics of China provides monthly and 12-month rates of inflation of the price indexes for the industrial sector. Negative monthly rates in Oct, Nov, Dec 2011, Jan, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep, Nov and Dec 2012 pulled down the 12-month rates to 5.0 percent in Oct 2011, 2.7 percent in Nov, 1.7 percent in Dec, 0.7 percent in Jan 2012, 0.0 percent in Feb, minus 0.3 percent in Mar, minus 0.7 percent in Apr, minus 1.4 percent in May, 2.1 in Jun, minus 2.9 percent in Jul, minus 3.5 percent in Aug, minus 3.6 percent in Sep. The increase of 0.2 percent in Oct 2012 pulled up the 12-month rate to minus 2.8 percent and the rate eased to minus 2.2 percent in Nov 2012 and minus 1.9 percent in Dec 2012. Increases of 0.2 percent in Jan and Feb 2013 pulled the 12-month rate to minus 1.6 percent while no change in Mar 2013 brought down the 12-month rate to minus 1.9 percent. Declines of prices of 0.6 percent in Apr, May and Jun 2013 pushed the 12-month rate to minus 2.7 percent. Producer prices fell 2.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2013 and minus 1.6 percent in Aug 2013 with increase of 0.1 percent in the month of Aug 2013. Producer price inflation was minus 1.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2013 and minus 1.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2013. Producer price inflation was minus 1.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2013 and minus 1.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013. Producer price inflation was minus 1.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2014 and minus 2.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2014. In Mar 2014, producer price inflation was minus 0.3 percent and minus 2.3 percent in 12 months followed by minus 0.2 percent in Apr 2014 and minus 2.0 percent in 12 months. Producer prices fell 0.1 percent in May 2014 and decreased 1.4 percent in 12 months. The producer price index fell 0.2 percent in Jun 2014 and decreased 1.1 percent in 12 months. The producer price index fell 0.1 percent in Jul 2014 and decreased 0.9 percent in 12 months. The producer price index fell 0.2 percent in Aug 2014 and declined 1.2 percent in 12 months. The producer price index fell 0.4 percent in Sep 2014 and declined 1.8 percent in 12 months. The producer price index fell 0.4 percent in Oct 2014 and declined 2.2 percent in 12 months. The producer price index fell 0.5 percent in Nov 2014 and declined 2.7 percent in 12 months. The producer price index fell 0.6 percent in Dec 2014 and declined 3.3 percent in 12 months. Producer prices fell 1.1 percent in Jan 2015 and fell 4.3 percent in 12 months. The producer price index fell 0.7 percent in Feb 2015 and fell 4.8 percent in 12 months. Producer prices fell 0.1 percent in Mar 2015 and fell 4.6 percent in 12 months. The producer price index fell 0.3 percent in Apr 2015 and fell 4.6 percent in 12 months. Producer prices fell 0.1 percent in May 2015 and fell 4.6 percent in 12 months. The producer price index fell 0.4 percent in Jun 2015 and decreased 4.8 percent in 12 months. Producer prices fell 0.7 percent in Jul 2015 and fell 5.4 percent in 12 months. The producer price index fell 0.8 percent in Aug 2015 and fell 5.9 percent in 12 months. China’s producer prices fell 0.4 percent in Sep 2015 and fell 5.9 percent in 12 months. The producer price index fell 0.5 percent in Nov 2015 and fell 5.9 percent in 12 months. Producer prices fell 0.6 percent in Dec 2015 and fell 5.9 percent in 12 months. The producer price index fell 0.5 percent in Jan 2016 and decreased 5.3 percent in 12 months. The producer price index fell 0.3 percent in Feb 2016 and decreased 4.9 percent in 12 months. The producer price index increased 0.5 percent in Mar 2016, decreasing 4.3 percent in 12 months. Producer prices increased 0.7 percent in Apr 2016 and decreased 3.4 percent in 12 months. The producer price index increased 0.5 percent in May 2016 and decreased 2.8 percent in 12 months. Producer prices fell 0.2 percent in Jun 2016 and decreased 2.6 percent in 12 months. The producer price index increased 0.2 percent in Jul 2016 and decreased 1.7 percent in 12 months. The producer price index increased 0.2 percent in Aug 2016 and decreased 0.8 percent in 12 months. Producer prices increased 0.5 percent in Sep 2016 and increased 0.1 percent in 12 months. The producer price index increased 0.7 percent in Oct 2016 and increased 1.2 percent in 12 months. Producer prices increased 1.5 percent in Nov 2016 and increased 3.3 percent in 12 months. The producer price index increased 1.6 percent in Dec 2016 and increased 5.5 percent in 12 months. Producer prices increased 0.8 percent in Jan 2017 and increased 6.9 percent in 12 months. The producer price index increased 0.6 percent in Feb 2017 and increased 7.8 percent in 12 months. Producer prices increased 0.3 percent in Mar 2017 and increased 7.6 percent in 12 months. The producer price index decreased 0.4 percent in Apr 2017 and increased 6.4 percent in 12 months. Producer prices decreased 0.3 percent in May 2017 and increased 5.5 percent in 12 months. The producer price index decreased 0.2 percent in Jun 2017 and increased 5.5 percent in 12 months. The producer price index increased 0.2 percent in Jul 2017 and increased 5.5 percent in 12 months. Producer prices increased 0.9 percent in Aug 2017 and increased 6.3 percent in 12 months. Producer prices increased 1.0 percent in Sep 2017 and increased 6.9 percent in 12 months. The producer price index increased 0.7 percent in Oct 2017 and increased 6.9 percent in 12 months. Producer prices increased 0.5 percent in Nov 2017 and increased 5.8 percent in 12 months. The producer price index increased 0.8 percent in Dec 2017 and increased 4.9 percent in 12 months. Producer prices increased 0.3 percent in Jan 2018 and increased 4.3 percent in 12 months. The producer price index decreased 0.1 percent in Feb 2018 and increased 3.7 percent in 12 months. Producer prices decreased 0.2 percent in Mar 2018 and increased 3.1 percent in 12 months. The producer price index decreased 0.2 percent in Apr 2018 and increased 3.4 percent in 12 months. Producer prices increased 0.4 percent in May 2018 and increased 4.1 percent in 12 months. The producer price index increased 0.3 percent in Jun 2018 and increased 4.7 percent in 12 months. Producer prices increased 0.1 percent in Jul 2018 and increased 4.6 percent in 12 months. Producer prices increased 0.4 percent in Aug 2018 and increased 4.1 percent in 12 months. The producer price index increased 0.6 percent in Sep 2018 and increased 3.6 percent in 12 months. Producer prices increased 0.4 percent in Oct 2018 and increased 3.3 percent in 12 months. The producer price index decreased 0.2 percent in Nov 2018 and increased 2.7 percent in 12 months. Producer prices decreased 1.0 percent in Dec 2018 and increased 0.9 percent in 12 months. The producer price index fell 0.6 percent in Jan 2019 and increased 0.1 percent in 12 months. Producer prices decreased 0.1 percent in Feb 2019 and increased 0.1 percent in 12 months. The producer price index increased 0.1 percent in Mar 2019 and increased 0.4 percent in 12 months. Producer prices increased 0.3 percent in Apr 2019 and increased 0.9 percent in 12 months. The producer price index increased 0.2 percent in May 2019 and increased 0.6 percent in 12 months. Producer prices decreased 0.3 percent in Jun 2019 and changed 0.0 percent in 12 months. The producer price index decreased 0.3 percent in Jul 2019 and decreased 0.2 percent in 12 months. Producer prices decreased 0.1 percent in Aug 2019 and decreased 0.8 percent in 12 months. The producer price index increased 0.1 percent in Sep 2019 and decreased 1.2 percent in 12 months. Producer prices increased 0.1 percent in Oct 2019 and decreased 1.6 percent in 12 months. The producer price index decreased 0.1 percent in Nov 2019 and decreased 1.4 percent in 12 months. Producer prices changed 0.0 percent in Dec 2019 and decreased 0.5 percent in 12 months. The producer price index changed 0.0 percent in Jan 2020 and increased 0.1 percent in 12 months. Producer prices decreased 0.5 percent in Feb 2020 and decreased 0.4 percent in 12 months. The producer price index decreased 1.0 percent in Mar 2020 and decreased 1.5 percent in 12 months. Producer prices deceased 1.3 percent in Apr 2020 and decreased 3.1 percent in 12 months. The producer price index decreased 0.4 percent in May 2020 and decreased 3.7 percent in 12 months. Producer prices increased 0.4 percent in Jun 2020 and decreased 3.0 percent in 12 months. The producer price index increased 0.4 percent in Jul 2020 and decreased 2.4 percent in 12 months. Producer prices increased 0.3 percent in Aug 2020 and decreased 2.0 percent in 12 months. Producer prices increased 0.1 percent in Sep 2020 and decreased 2.1 percent in 12 months.

Chart IV-9, China, Producer Prices for the Industrial Sector Month and 12 Months ∆%

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart IV-10, China, Purchaser Product Indices for Industrial Sector, Month and 12 Months ∆%

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart IV-10 of the National Bureau of Statistics of China provides monthly and 12-month inflation of the purchaser product indices for the industrial sector. Decreasing monthly inflation with four successive contractions from Oct 2011 to Jan 2012 and May-Aug 2012 pulled down the 12-month rate to minus 4.1 percent in Aug and Sep. Consecutive increases of 0.1 percent in Sep and Oct 2012 raised the 12-month rate to minus 3.3 percent in Oct 2012. The rate eased to minus 2.8 in Nov 2012 with decrease of 0.2 percent in Nov 2012 and minus 2.4 percent in Dec 2012 with monthly decrease of 0.1 percent. Increase of 0.3 percent in Jan 2013 and 0.2 in Feb 2013 pulled the 12-month rate to minus 1.9 percent. Decrease of prices of 0.1 percent in Mar 2013 brought down the 12-month rate to minus 2.0 percent. Declining prices of 0.6 percent in Apr and May 2013 and 0.5 percent in Jun 2013 pushed down the 12-month rate to minus 2.6 percent. The index fell 2.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2013 and 1.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2013. The index fell 1.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2013 and 1.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2013. Purchaser price inflation was minus 1.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2013 and minus 1.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013. Purchaser price inflation was minus 1.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2014 and minus 2.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2014. In Mar 2014, inflation of the purchaser price index was minus 0.5 percent and minus 2.5 percent in 12 months followed by minus 0.4 percent in Apr 2014 and minus 2.3 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index fell 0.1 percent in May 2014 and decreased 1.8 percent in 12 months. In Jun 2014, the purchaser price index fell 0.1 percent and decreased 1.5 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index changed 0.0 percent in Jul 2014 and fell 1.1 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index fell 0.1 percent in Aug 2014 and fell 1.4 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index fell 0.4 percent in Sep 2014 and declined 1.9 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index fell 0.6 percent in Oct 2014 and declined 2.5 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index fell 0.7 percent in Nov 2014 and declined 3.2 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index fell 0.8 percent in Dec 2014 and declined 4.0 percent in 12 months. Purchaser prices fell 1.3 percent in Jan 2015 and fell 5.2 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index fell 01.0 percent in Feb 2015 and fell 5.9 percent in 12 months. Purchaser prices fell 0.3 percent in Mar 2015 and declined 5.7 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index fell 0.3 percent in Apr 2015 and fell 5.7 percent in 12 months. Purchaser prices change 0.0 percent in May 2015 and fell 5.5 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index fell 0.2 percent in Jun 2015 and fell 5.6 percent in 12 months. Purchaser prices fell 0.6 percent in Jul 2015 and fell 6.1 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index fell 0.7 percent in Aug 2015 and fell 6.6 percent in 12 months. Purchaser prices fell 0.6 percent in Sep 2015 and fell 6.8 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index fell 0.7 percent in Nov 2015 and fell 6.9 percent in 12 months. Purchaser prices fell 0.7 percent in Dec 2015 and fell 6.8 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index fell 0.7 percent in Jan 2016 and fell 6.3 percent in 12 months. Purchaser prices fell 0.5 percent in Feb 2016 and fell 5.8 percent in 12 months. Purchaser prices increased 0.3 percent in Mar 2016 and fell 5.2 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index increased 0.6 percent in Apr 2016 and decreased 4.4 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index increased 0.6 percent in May 2016 and decreased 3.8 percent in 12 months. Purchaser prices increased 0.2 percent in Jun 2016 and fell 3.4 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index increased 0.3 percent in Jul 2016 and fell 2.6 percent in 12 months. Purchaser prices increased 0.2 percent in Aug 2016 and fell 1.7 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index increased 0.4 percent in Sep 2016 and fell 0.6 percent in 12 months. Purchaser prices increased 0.9 percent in Oct 2016 and increased 0.9 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index increased 1.8 percent in Nov 2016 and increased 3.5 percent in 12 months. Purchaser prices increased 1.9 percent in Dec 2016 and increased 6.3 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index increased 1.2 percent in Dec 2016 and increased 8.4 percent in 12 months. Purchase prices increased 0.8 percent in Feb 2017 and increased 9.9 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index increased 0.5 percent in Mar 2017 and increased 10.0 percent in 12 months. Purchaser prices decreased 0.3 percent in Apr 2017 and increased 9.0 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index decreased 0.3 percent in May 2017 and increased 8.0 percent in 12 months. Purchaser decreased 0.4 percent in Jun 2017 and increased 7.3 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index changed 0.0 percent in Jul 2017 and increased 7.0 percent in 12 months. Purchaser prices increased 0.8 percent in Aug 2017 and increased 7.7 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index increased 1.2 percent in Sep 2017 and increased 8.5 percent in 12 months. Purchaser prices increased 0.9 percent in Oct 2017 and increased 8.4 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index increased 0.6 percent in Nov 2017 and increased 7.1 percent in 12 months. Purchaser prices increased 0.8 percent in Dec 2017 and increased 5.9 percent in 12 months. Purchaser prices increased 0.5 percent in Jan 2018 and increased 5.2 percent in 12 months. The purchase price index 0.1 percent in Feb 2018 and increased 4.4 percent in 12 months. Purchaser prices decreased 0.3 percent in Mar 2018 and increased 3.7 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index decreased 0.3 percent in Apr 2018 and increased 3.7 percent in 12 months. Purchaser prices increased 0.3 percent in May 2018 and increased 4.3 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index increased 0.4 percent in Jun 2018 and increased 5.1 percent in 12 months. Purchaser prices increased 0.1 percent in Jul 2018 and increased 5.2 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index increased 0.5 percent in Aug 2018 and increased 4.8 percent in 12 months. Purchaser prices increased 0.6 percent in Sep 2018 and increased 4.2 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index increased 0.7 percent in Oct 2018 and increased 4.0 percent in 12 months. Purchaser prices changed 0.0 percent in Nov 2018 and increased 3.3 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index decreased 0.9 percent in Dec 2018 and increased 1.6 percent in 12 months. Purchaser prices decreased 0.9 percent in Jan 2019 and increased 0.2 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index decreased 0.1 percent in Feb 2019 and decreased 0.1 percent in 12 months. Purchaser prices changed 0.0 percent in Mar 2019 and increased 0.2 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index decreased 0.1 percent in Apr 2019 and increased 0.4 percent in 12 months. Purchaser prices changed 0.0 percent in May 2019 and increased 0.2 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index decreased 0.1 percent in Jun 2019 and decreased 0.3 percent in 12 months. Purchaser prices decreased 0.2 percent in Jul 2019 and decreased 0.6 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index decreased 0.2 percent in Aug 2019 and decreased 1.3 percent in 12 months. Purchaser prices increased 0.2 percent in Sep 2019 and decreased 1.7 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index increased 0.2 percent in Oct 2019 and decreased 2.1 percent in 12 months. Purchaser prices decreased 0.1 percent in Nov 2019 and decreased 2.2 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index changed 0.0 percent in Dec 2019 and decreased 1.3 percent in 12 months. Purchaser prices increased 0.2 percent in Jan 2020 and decreased 0.3 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index decreased 0.3 percent in Feb 2020 and decreased 0.5 percent in 12 months. Purchaser prices decreased 1.1 percent in Mar 2020 and decreased 1.6 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index decreased 2.3 percent in Apr 2020 and decreased 3.8 percent in 12 months. Purchaser prices decreased 1.2 percent in May 2020 and decreased 5.0 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index increased 0.4 percent in Jun 2020 and decreased 4.4 percent in 12 months. Purchaser prices increased 0.9 percent in Jul 2020 and decreased 3.3 percent in 12 months. The purchaser price index increased 0.6 percent in Aug 2020 and decreased 2.5 percent in 12 months. Purchaser prices increased 0.4 percent in Sep 2020 and decreased 2.3 percent in 12 months.

Chart IV-10, China, Purchaser Product Indices for Industrial Sector, Month and 12 Months ∆%

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Consumer price inflation in China in Sep 2020 was 0.2 percent, 1.7 percent in 12 months ending in Sep 2020 and increased 3.3 percent in cumulative Jan-Sep 2020 relative to Jan-Sep 2019 a year earlier, as shown in Table IV-11. China is highly conscious of food price inflation because of its high weight in the basket of consumption of the population. The prices of food increased 0.4 percent in Sep 2020 and increased 7.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Food prices increased 1.4 percent in Aug 2020 and increased 11.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Food prices increased 2.8 percent in Jul 2020 and increased 13.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Food prices increased 0.2 percent in Jun 2020 and increased 11.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Food prices decreased 3.5 percent in May 2020 and increased 10.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Food prices decreased 3.0 percent in Apr 2020 and increased 14.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Food prices decreased 3.8 percent in Mar 2020 and increased 18.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Food prices increased 4.3 percent in Feb 2020 and increased 21.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Food prices increased 4.4 percent in Jan 2020 and increased 20.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Food prices decreased 0.4 percent in Dec 2019 and increased 17.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Food prices increased 4.5 percent in Nov 2019 and increased 19.1 percent in 12 months. Food prices increased 3.6 percent in Oct 2019 and increased 15.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Food prices increased 3.5 percent in Sep 2019 and increased 11.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Food prices increased 3.2 percent in Aug 2019 and increased 10.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Food prices decreased 0.3 percent in Jun 2019 and increased 8.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Food prices increased 0.2 percent in May 2019 and increased 7.7 percent relative to a year earlier. Food prices decreased 0.1 percent in Apr 2019 and increased 6.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Food prices decreased 0.6 percent in Mar 2019 and increased 3.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Food prices increased 2.3 percent in Feb 2019 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Food prices increased 1.6 percent in Jan 2019 and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Food prices increased 1.1 percent in Dec 2018 and increased 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Food prices decreased 1.2 percent in Nov 2018 and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Food prices decreased 0.3 percent in Oct 2018 and increased 3.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Food prices increased 2.4 percent in Sep 2018 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. Food prices increased 2.4 percent in Aug 2018 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. Food prices increased 0.1 percent in Jul 2018 and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Food prices increased 0.8 percent in Jun 2018 and increased 0.3 percent in 12 months. Food prices decreased 1.3 percent in May 2018 and increased 0.1 percent in 12 months. Food prices decreased 1.9 percent in Apr 2018 and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The prices of food decreased 4.2 percent in Mar 2018 and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Food prices increased 4.4 percent in Feb 2018 and increased 4.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The prices of food increased 0.6 percent in Jan 2018 and increased 2.7 percent in 12 months. Food prices increased 1.1 percent in Dec 2017 and decreased 0.4 percent in 12 months. Food prices decreased 0.5 percent in Nov 017 and decreased 1.1 percent in 12 months. The prices of food changed 0.0 percent in Oct 2017 and increased 0.3 percent in 12 months. Food prices increased 0.5 percent in Sep 2017 and decreased 1.4 percent in 12 months. The prices of food increased 0.9 percent in Aug 2017 and increased 0.4 percent in 12 months. The prices of food decreased 0.1 percent in Jul 2017 and decreased 1.1 percent in 12 months. The prices of food decreased 1.0 percent in Jun 2017 and decreased 1.2 percent in 12 months. Food prices decreased 0.7 percent in May 2017 and decreased 1.6 percent in 12 months. The prices of food decreased 0.6 percent in Apr 2017 and decreased 3.5 percent in 12 months. Food prices decreased 1.9 percent in Mar 2017 and decreased 4.4 percent in 12 months. The prices of food decreased 0.6 percent in Feb 2017 and decreased 4.3 percent in 12 months. Food prices decreased 0.6 percent Food prices increased 2.3 percent in Jan 2017 and increased 2.7 percent in 12 months. Food prices increased 0.4 percent in Dec 2016 and increased 4.6 percent in 12 months. Food prices increased 0.2 percent in Nov 2016 and increased 4.0 percent in 12 months. Food prices decreased 1.0 percent in Oct 2016 and increased 3.7 percent in 12 months. The prices of food increased 1.7 percent in Sep 2016 and increased 3.2 percent in 12 months. Food prices increased 0.4 percent in Aug 2016 and increased 1.3 percent in 12 months. The prices of food fell 0.2 percent in Jul 2016 and increased 3.3 percent in 12 months. Food prices fell 1.4 percent in Jun 2016 and increased 4.6 percent in 12 months. Prices of food decreased 2.7 percent in May 2016 and increased 5.9 percent in 12 months. Food prices decreased 1.4 percent in Apr 2016 and increased 7.5 percent in 12 months. Food prices decreased 1.8 percent in Mar 2016 and increased 7.6 percent in 12 months. Food prices increased 6.7 percent in Feb 2016 and increased 7.3 percent in 12 months. Food prices increased 2.0 percent in Jan 2016 and increased 1.8 percent in 12 months. Food prices increased 1.5 percent in Dec 2015 and increased 2.7 percent in 12 months. Food prices changed 0.0 percent in Nov 2015 and increased 2.3 percent in 12 months. Food prices decreased 1.0 percent in Oct 2015 and increased 1.9 percent in 12 months. Food prices decreased 0.1 percent in Sep 2015 and increased 2.7 percent in 12 months. Food prices increased 1.6 percent in Aug 2015 and increased 3.7 percent in 12 months. Food prices increased 0.7 percent in Jul 2015 and increased 2.7 percent in 12 months. Food prices fell 0.1 percent in Jun 2015 and increased 1.9 percent in 12 months. Food prices fell 0.9 percent in May 2015 and fell 1.6 percent in 12 months. Food prices fell 0.9 percent in Apr 2015 and increased 2.7 percent in 12 months. Food prices decreased 1.6 percent in Mar 2015 and increased 2.3 percent in 12 months. Food prices decreased 1.6 percent in Feb 2015 and increased 2.3 percent in 12 months. Food prices increased 2.9 percent in Feb 2015 and increased 2.4 percent in 12 months. Food prices increased 0.7 percent in Jan 2015 and increased 1.1 percent in 12 months Food prices increased 1.2 percent in Dec 2014 and increased 2.9 percent in 12 months. Food prices decreased 0.4 percent in Nov 2014 and increased 2.3 percent in 12 months. Food prices decreased 0.2 percent in Oct 2014 and increased 2.5 percent in 12 months. Food prices increased 0.8 percent in Sep 2014 and increased 1.6 percent in 12 months. Food prices decreased 0.1 percent in Jul 2013 and increased 3.6 percent in 12 months. Food prices increased 0.2 percent in May 2014 and 4.1 percent in 12 months. Food prices decreased 1.3 percent in Apr 2014, increasing 2.3 percent in 12 months ending in Apr 2014 and 3.2 percent in Jan-Apr 2014 relative to a year earlier. Food prices increased 2.4 percent in Jan 2014, 3.7 percent in 12 months and 3.7 percent in the cumulative Jan 2014 relative to a year earlier. Food prices fell 0.2 percent in Nov 2013, increasing 5.9 percent in 12 months and 4.7 percent in the cumulative to Nov 2013 relative to a year earlier. Food prices decreased 0.4 percent in Oct 2013, increasing 6.5 percent in 12 months in adjustment to sharp increase in Sep 2013. Adjustment from the prior shock had occurred in May with decline of food prices by 1.6 percent and increase of 3.8 percent in 12 months and 3.8 percent in Jan-May 2013 relative to a year earlier. Another area of concern is housing inflation, which was 0.0 percent in Sep 2020 and minus 0.8 percent in 12 months. House prices changed 0.1 percent in Aug 202 and minus 0.7 percent in 12 months. 0House prices changed 0.0 percent in Jul 2020 and minus 0.7 percent in 12 months. House prices decreased 0.2 percent in Jun 2020 and minus 0.6 percent in 12 months. House prices decreased 0.2 percent in May 2020 and decreased 0.5 percent in 12 months. House prices decreased 0.2 percent in Apr 2020 and minus 0.3 percent in 12 months. House prices decreased 0.3 percent in Mar 2020 and minus 0.1 percent in 12 months. House prices decreased 0.1 percent in Feb 2020 and increased 0.3 percent in 12 months. House prices changed 0.0 percent in Jan 2020 and increased 0.5 percent in 12 months. House prices changed 0.1 percent in Dec 2019 and increased 0.5 percent in 12 months. House prices changed 0.0 percent in Nov 2019 and increased 0.5 percent in 12 months. House prices changed 0.0 percent in Oct 2019 and increased 0.5 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.1 percent in Sep 2019 and 0.7 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.1 percent in Aug 2019 and increased 0.7 percent in 12 months. House prices changed 0.0 percent in Jun 2019 and 1.6 percent in 12 months. House prices changed 0.0 percent in May 2019 and 1.8 percent in 12 months. House prices changed 0.0 percent in Apr 2019 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. House prices changed 0.0 percent in Mar 2019 and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. House prices increased 0.1 percent in Feb 2019 and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. House prices changed 0.0 percent in Jan 2019 and increased 2.1 percent in 12 months. House prices changed 0.0 percent in Dec 2018 and increased 2.2 percent in 12 months. House prices changed 0.0 percent in Nov 2018 and increased 2.4 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.2 percent in Oct 2018 and 2.4 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.4 percent in Sep 2018 and increased 2.6 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.5 percent in Aug 2018 and 2.5 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.2 percent in Jul 2018 and 2.4 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.2 percent in Jun 2018 and 2.3 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.1 percent in May 2018 and increased 2.2 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.1 percent in Apr 2018 and increased 2.2 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.2 percent in Mar 2018 and 2.2 percent in 12 months. House prices changed 0.0 percent in Feb 2018 and increased 2.2 percent in 12 months. House prices changed 0.3 percent in Jan 2018 and 2.3 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.2 percent in Dec 2017 and 2.8 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.2 percent in Nov 2017 and 2.8 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.3 percent in Sep 2017 and increased 2.8 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.2 percent in Oct 2017 and 2.8 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.3 percent in Sep 2017 and increased 2.8 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.4 percent in Aug 2017 and 2.7 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0. Percent in Jul 2017 and 2.5 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.2 percent in Jun 2017 and 2.5 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.1 percent in May 2017 and increased 2.5 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.1 percent in Apr 2017 and increased 2.4 percent in 12 months. Houses prices increased 0.2 percent in Mar 2017 and increased 2.4 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.4 percent in Feb 2017 and .5 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.3 percent in Jan 2017 and 2.3 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.2 percent in Dec 2016 and 2.1 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.2 percent in Nov 2016 and increased 2.0 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.2 percent in Oct 2016 and increased 1.8 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.3 percent in Sep 2016 and 1.5 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.2 percent in Aug 2016 and increased 1.5 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.1 percent in Jul 2016 and increased 1.6 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.3 percent in Jun 2016 and 2.8 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.3 percent in May 2016 and increased 2.8 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.2 percent in Apr 2016 and 1.4 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.3 percent in Mar 2016 and 1.3 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.1 percent in Mar 2016 and 1.3 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.1 percent in Jan 2016 and 1.4 percent in 12 months. House prices changed 0.0 percent in Dec 2015 and increased 0.8 percent in 12 months. House prices changed 0.0 percent in Nov 2015 and increased 0.7 percent in 12 months. House prices changed 0.0 percent in Oct 2015 and increased 0.6 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.1 percent in Sep 2015 and increased 2.7 percent in 12 months. House prices changed 0.0 percent in Aug 2015 and increased 0.8 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.1 percent in Jul 2015 and 0.8 percent in 12 months. House prices changed 0.0 percent in Jun 2015 and increased 0.8 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.1 percent in May 2015 and increased 0.7 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.1 percent in Apr 2015 and increased 0.6 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.3 percent in Mar 2015 and increased 0.6 percent in 12 months. House inflation was 0.3 percent in Feb 2014 and 2.8 percent in 12 months. House inflation was 0.2 percent in Mar 2014 and 2.5 percent in 12 months. House inflation was 0.1 percent in Apr 2014 and 2.4 percent in 12 months. House inflation was 0.0 percent in May 2014 and 2.3 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.1 percent in Jun and gained 2.6 percent in 12 months. House prices changed 0.0 percent in Jul 2014 and increased 2.0 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.1 percent in Aug 2014 and 1.9 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.2 percent in Aug 2014 and 2.6 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.1 percent in Sep 2014 and 1.6 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.2 percent in Oct 2014 and 1.6 percent in 12 months. House prices decreased 0.1 percent in Nov 2014 and increased 1.4 percent in 12 months. House renting was 0.0 percent in Sep 2020 and minus 0.8 percent in 12 months. House renting was 0.1 percent in Aug 2020 and minus 1.2 percent in 12 months. House renting was 0.0 percent in Jul 2020 and minus 1.0 percent in 12 months. House prices fell 0.1 percent in Dec 2014 and increased 1.0 percent in 12 months. House renting was minus 0.1 percent in Jun 2020 and minus 0.7 percent in 12 months. House renting was minus 0.1 percent in May 2020 and decreased 0.3 percent in 12 months. House renting was 0.0 percent in Apr 2020 and decreased 0.3 percent in 12 months. House renting decreased 0.2 percent in Mar 2020 and decreased 0.2 percent in 12 months. House renting decreased 0.1 percent in Feb 2020 and increased 0.3 percent in 12 months. House renting decreased 0.2 percent in Jan 2020 and increased 0.7 percent in 12 months. House renting decreased 0.1 percent in Dec 2019 and increased 0.8 percent in 12 months. House renting decreased 0.3 percent in Nov 2019 and increased 0.9 percent in 12 months. House renting decreased 0.1 percent in Oct 2019 and increased 1.2 percent in 12 months. House renting changed 0.0 percent in Sep 2019 and increased 1.4 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.3 percent in Aug 2019 and increased 1.7 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.2 percent in Jun 2019 and increased 2.0 percent in 12 months. House renting changed 0.0 percent in May 2019 and increased 2.1 percent in 12 months. House renting changed 0.0 percent in Apr 2019 and increased 2.2 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.3 percent in Mar 2019 and increased 2.4 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.3 percent in Feb 2019 and increased 2.7 percent in 12 months. House renting decreased 0.1 percent in Jan 2019 and increased 2.4 percent in 12 months. House renting was 0.0 percent in Dec 2018 and increased 2.5 percent in 12 months. House renting changed 0.0 percent in Nov 2018 and increased 2.4 percent in 12 months. House renting changed 0.0 percent in Oct 2018 and increased 2.5 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.3 percent in Sep 2018 and increased 2.6 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.6 percent in Aug 2018 and increased 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. House renting increased 0.4 percent in Jul 2018 and increased 2.3 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.2 percent in Jun 2018 and increased 2.3 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.1 percent in May 2018 and increased 2.4 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.2 percent in Apr 2018 and increased 2.4 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.6 percent in Mar 2018 and increased 2.4 percent in 12 months. House renting changed 0.0 percent in Feb 2018 and increased 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. House renting changed 0.0 percent in Jan 2018 and increased 3.0 percent in 12 months. House renting changed 0.0 percent in Dec 2017 and increased 2.8 percent in 12 months. House renting changed 0.0 percent in Nov 2017 and increased 2.8 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.1 percent in Oct 2017 and increased 2.9 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.3 percent in Sep 2017 and increased 2.9 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.4 percent in Aug 2017 and increased 3.0 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.3 percent in Sep 2014 and increased 2.6 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.3 percent in Oct 2014 and 2.7 percent in 12 months. House renting decreased 0.1 percent in Nov 2014 and increased 2.4 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.1 percent in Dec 2014 and increased 2.4 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.3 percent in Apr 2015 and increased 2.4 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.2 percent in May 2015 and increased 2.6 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.3 percent in Jun 2015 and increased 2.8 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.3 percent in Jul 2015 and increased 3.0 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.2 percent in Aug 2015 and increased 3.0 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.2 percent in Sep 2015 and increased 2.9 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.1 percent in Oct 2015 and increased 2.7 percent in 12 months. House renting changed 0.0 percent in Nov 2015 and increased 2.8 percent in 12 months. House renting changed 0.0 percent in Dec 2015 and increased 2.6 percent in 12 months. House renting decreased 0.1 percent in Jan 2016 and increased 2.6 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.3 percent in Feb 2016 and increased 2.6 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.9 percent in Mar 2016 and increased 2.7 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.2 percent in Apr 2016 and increased 2.7 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.1 percent in May 2016 and increased 2.8 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.3 percent in Jun 2016 and increased 2.8 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.4 percent in Jul 2016 and increased 2.8 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.4 percent in Aug 2016 and increased 2.7 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.4 percent in Sep 2016 and increased 2.7 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.1 percent in Oct 2016 and increased 2.8 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.1 percent in Nov 2016 and increased 2.9 percent in 12 months. House renting changed 0.0 percent in Dec 2016 and increased 2.9 percent in 12 months. House renting changed 0.0 percent in Jan 2017 and increased 3.0 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.6 percent in Feb 2017 and increased 3.3 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.4 percent in Mar 2017 and increased 2.8 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.2 percent in Apr 2017 and increased 2.8 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.1 percent in May 2017 and increased 2.9 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.3 percent in Jun 2017 and increased 2.9 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.3 percent in Jul 2017 and increased 2.9 percent in 12 months. House renting increased 0.4 percent in Aug 2017 and increased 3.0 percent in 12 months. House prices changed 0.0 percent in Jan 2015 and increased 0.8 percent in 12 months. House prices changed 0.0 percent in Feb 2015 and increased 0.6 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.3 in Mar 2015 and increased 0.6 percent in 12 months. House prices increased 0.1 percent in Apr 2015 and increased 0.6 percent in 12 months. House prices changed 0.0 percent in Jun 2015 and increased 0.8 percent in 12 months.

Table IV-11, China, Consumer Price Index

2020	Sep 2020 Month   ∆%	Sep 2020 12-Month ∆%	Jan-Sep 2020 ∆%/ Jan-Sep 2019
Consumer Prices	0.2	1.7	3.3
Urban	0.2	1.6	3.1
Rural	0.2	2.1	4.1
Food	0.4	7.9	14.3
Non-food	0.2	0.0	0.5
Consumer Goods	0.2	2.6	4.9
Services	0.3	0.2	0.6
Excluding Food and Energy	0.2	0.5	0.9
Commodity Categories:
Food	0.3	6.4	10.9
Meat	-0.8	22.6	58.9
Pork	-1.6	25.5	82.4
Beef	1.8	9.0	17.9
Tobacco	0.1	0.8	0.8
Liquor	-0.1	1.5	2.3
Clothing	0.9	-0.4	-0.2
Household	0.0	-0.1	0.1
Healthcare	0.0	1.5	1.9
Transportation & Communication	-0.1	-3.6	-3.5
Education, Culture & Recreation	0.8	0.7	1.4
Residence	0.0	-0.8	-0.3
House Renting	0.0	-1.2	-0.4

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Month and 12-month rates of change of consumer prices are in Table IV-12. There are waves of consumer price inflation in China similar to those around the world (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/09/wealth-of-households-and-nonprofit.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/d-ollar-devaluation-and-yuan.html). In the first wave, consumer prices increased at the annual equivalent rate of 8.3 percent in Jan-Mar 2011, driven by commodity price increases resulting from unconventional monetary policy of zero interest rates. In the second wave, risk aversion unwound carry trades with annual equivalent inflation falling to the rate of 2.0 percent in Apr-Jun 2011. In the third wave, inflation returned at 2.9 percent with renewed interest in commodity exposures in Jul-Nov 2011. In the fourth wave, inflation returned at a high 5.8 percent annual equivalent in Dec 2011 to Mar 2012. In the fifth wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 3.9 percent in Apr to Jun 2012. In the sixth wave, annual equivalent inflation rose to 4.1 percent in Jul-Sep 2012. In the seventh wave, inflation was minus 1.2 percent annual equivalent in Oct 2012 and 0.0 percent in Oct-Nov 2012. In the eighth wave, annual equivalent inflation was 12.2 percent in Dec 2012-Feb 2013 primarily because of winter weather that caused increases in food prices. In the ninth wave, collapse of food prices resulted in annual equivalent inflation of minus 10.3 percent in Mar 2013. In the tenth wave, annual equivalent inflation returned at 2.4 percent in Apr 2013. In the eleventh wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 3.5 percent in May-Jun 2013. In the twelfth wave, inflation rose at annual equivalent 4.6 percent in Jul-Oct 2013 with sharp increase of food prices in Sep 2013. In the thirteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 1.2 percent in Nov 2013. In the fourteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was 7.4 percent in Dec 2013-Feb 2014. In the fifteenth wave, annual inflation was minus 4.7 percent in Mar-Apr 2014. In the sixteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was 1.2 percent in May 2014. In the seventeenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 1.2 percent in Jun 2014. In the eighteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was 2.4 percent in Jul-Oct 2014. In the nineteenth wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 2.4 percent in Nov 2014. In the twentieth wave, annual equivalent inflation was 7.4 percent in Dec 2014-Feb 2015. In the twenty-first wave, annual equivalent inflation fell at 2.7 percent in Mar-Jun 2015. In the twenty-second wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 4.9 percent in Jul-Aug 2015. In the twenty-third wave, annual equivalent inflation was 1.2 percent in Sep 2015. In the twenty-fourth wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 3.5 percent in Oct 2015. In the twenty-fifth wave, consumer prices increased at annual equivalent 4.1 percent in Nov 2015-Jan 2016. In the twenty-sixth wave, annual equivalent inflation was 21.0 percent in Feb 2016. In the twenty-seventh wave, consumer prices decreased at annual equivalent minus 3.5 percent in Mar-Jun 2016. In the twenty-eighth wave, annual equivalent inflation was 1.8 percent in Jul-Aug 2016. In the twenty-ninth wave, consumer prices increased at annual equivalent 8.7 percent in Sep 2016. In the thirtieth wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 1.2 percent in Oct 2016. In the thirty-first wave, consumer prices increased at 1.2 percent in Nov-Dec 2016. In the thirty-second wave, annual equivalent inflation was 12.7 percent in Jan 2017. In the thirty-third wave, annual equivalent inflation fell at 3.0 percent in Feb-Mar 2017. In the thirty-fourth wave, annual equivalent inflation increased at 1.2 percent in Apr 2017. In the thirty-fifth wave, annual equivalent inflation decreased at 1.8 percent in May-Jun 2017. In the thirty-sixth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 1.2 percent in Jul 2017. In the thirty-seventh wave, annual equivalent inflation was 4.1 percent in Aug-Oct 2017. In the thirty-eighth wave, annual equivalent inflation was 0.0 percent in Nov 2017. In the thirty-ninth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 3.7 percent in Dec 2017. In the fortieth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 11.3 percent in Jan-Feb 2018. In the forty-first wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 4.7 percent in Mar-Jun 2018. In the forty-second wave, annual equivalent inflation was 7.0 percent in Jul-Sep 2018. In the forty-third wave, annual equivalent inflation was 2.4 percent in Oct 2018. In the forty-fourth wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 1.8 percent in Nov-Dec 2018. In the forty-fifth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 9.4 percent in Jan-Feb 2019. In the forty-sixth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at minus 4.7 percent in Mar 2019. In the forty-seventh wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 0.6 percent in Apr-May 2019. In the forty-eighth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at minus 1.2 percent in Jun 2019. In the forty-ninth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 8.3 percent in Jul-Aug 2019. In the fiftieth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 9.2 percent in Sep-Nov 2019. In the fifty-first wave, annual equivalent inflation was 0.0 percent in Dec 2019. In the fifty-second wave, annual equivalent inflation was 14.0 percent in Jan-Feb 2020. In the fifty-third wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 11.0 percent in Mar-May 2020. In the forty-fourth wave, annual equivalent inflation was minus 1.2 percent in Jun 2020. In the forty-fifth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 6.2 percent in Jul-Aug 2020. In the forty-sixth wave, annual equivalent inflation was at 2.4 percent in Sep 2020. Inflation volatility originating in unconventional monetary policy clouds investment and consumption decisions by business and households. There is local problem in China with food prices.

Table IV-12, China, Month and 12-Month Rates of Change of Consumer Price Index ∆%

	Month ∆%	12-Month ∆%
Sep 2020	0.2	1.7
AE ∆% Sep	2.4
Aug	0.4	2.4
Jul	0.6	2.7
AE ∆% Jul-Aug	6.2
Jun	-0.1	2.5
AE ∆% Jun	-1.2
May	-0.8	2.4
Apr	-0.9	3.3
Mar	-1.2	4.3
AE ∆% Mar-May	-11.0
Feb	0.8	5.2
Jan	1.4	5.4
AE ∆% Jan-Feb	14.0
Dec 2019	0.0	4.5
AE ∆% Dec	0.0
Nov	0.4	4.5
Oct	0.9	3.8
Sep	0.9	3.0
AE ∆% Sep-Nov	9.2
Aug	0.7	2.8
Jul	0.4	2.8
AE ∆% Jul-Aug	8.3
Jun	-0.1	2.7
AE ∆% Jun	-1.2
May	0.0	2.7
Apr	0.1	2.5
AE ∆% Apr-May	0.6
Mar	-0.4	2.3
AE ∆% Mar	-4.7
Feb	1.0	1.5
Jan	0.5	1.7
AE ∆% Jan-Feb	9.4
Dec 2018	0.0	1.9
Nov	-0.3	2.2
AE ∆% Nov-Dec	-1.8
Oct	0.2	2.5
AE ∆% Oct	2.4
Sep	0.7	2.5
Aug	0.7	2.3
Jul	0.3	2.1
AE ∆% Jul-Sep	7.0
Jun	-0.1	1.9
May	-0.2	1.8
Apr	-0.2	1.8
Mar	-1.1	2.1
AE ∆% Mar-Jun	-4.7
Feb	1.2	2.9
Jan	0.6	1.5
AE ∆% Jan-Feb	11.3
Dec 2017	0.3	1.8
AE ∆% Dec	3.7
Nov	0.0	1.7
AE ∆% Nov	0.0
Oct	0.1	1.9
Sep	0.5	1.6
Aug	0.4	1.8
AE ∆% Aug-Oct	4.1
Jul	0.1	1.4
AE ∆% Jul	1.2
Jun	-0.2	1.5
May	-0.1	1.5
AE ∆% May-Jun	-1.8
Apr	0.1	1.2
AE ∆% Apr	1.2
Mar	-0.3	0.9
Feb	-0.2	0.8
AE ∆% Feb-Mar	-3.0
Jan	1.0	2.5
AE ∆% Jan	12.7
Dec 2016	0.2	2.1
Nov	0.1	2.3
AE ∆% Nov-Dec	1.2
Oct	-0.1	2.1
AE ∆% Oct	-1.2
Sep	0.7	1.9
AE ∆% Sep	8.7
Aug	0.1	1.3
Jul	0.2	1.8
AE ∆% Jul-Aug	1.8
Jun	-0.1	1.9
May	-0.5	2.0
Apr	-0.2	2.3
Mar	-0.4	2.3
AE ∆% Mar-Jun	-3.5
Feb	1.6	2.3
AE ∆% Feb	21.0
Jan	0.5	1.8
Dec 2015	0.5	1.6
Nov	0.0	1.5
AE ∆% Nov-Jan	4.1
Oct	-0.3	1.3
AE ∆% Oct	-3.5
Sep	0.1	1.6
AE ∆% Sep	1.2
Aug	0.5	2.0
Jul	0.3	1.6
AE ∆% Jul-Aug	4.9
Jun	0.0	1.4
May	-0.2	1.2
Apr	-0.2	1.5
Mar	-0.5	1.4
AE ∆% Mar-Jun	-2.7
Feb	1.2	1.4
Jan	0.3	0.8
Dec 2014	0.3	1.5
AE ∆% Dec-Feb	7.4
Nov	-0.2	1.4
AE ∆% Nov	-2.4
Oct	0.0	1.6
Sep	0.5	1.6
Aug	0.2	2.0
Jul	0.1	2.3
AE ∆% Jul-Oct	2.4
Jun	-0.1	2.3
AE ∆% Jun	-1.2
May	0.1	2.5
AE ∆% May	1.2
Apr	-0.3	1.8
Mar	-0.5	2.4
AE ∆% Mar-Apr	-4.7
Feb	0.5	2.0
Jan	1.0	2.5
Dec 2013	0.3	2.5
AE ∆% Dec-Feb	7.4
Nov	-0.1	3.0
AE ∆% Nov	-1.2
Oct	0.1	3.2
Sep	0.8	3.1
Aug	0.5	2.6
Jul	0.1	2.7
AE ∆% Jul-Oct	4.6
Jun	0.0	2.7
May	-0.6	2.1
AE ∆% May-Jun	-3.5
Apr	0.2	2.4
AE ∆% Apr	2.4
Mar 2013	-0.9	2.1
AE ∆% Mar	-10.3
Feb	1.1	3.2
Jan	1.0	2.0
Dec 2012	0.8	2.5
AE ∆% Dec-Feb	12.2
Nov	0.1	2.0
Oct	-0.1	1.7
AE ∆% Oct-Nov	0.0
Sep	0.3	1.9
Aug	0.6	2.0
Jul	0.1	1.8
AE ∆% Jul-Sep	4.1
Jun	-0.6	2.2
May	-0.3	3.0
Apr	-0.1	3.4
AE ∆% Apr to Jun	-3.9
Mar	0.2	3.6
Feb	-0.1	3.2
Jan	1.5	4.5
Dec 2011	0.3	4.1
AE ∆% Dec to Mar	5.8
Nov	-0.2	4.2
Oct	0.1	5.5
Sep	0.5	6.1
Aug	0.3	6.2
Jul	0.5	6.5
AE ∆% Jul to Nov	2.9
Jun	0.3	6.4
May	0.1	5.5
Apr	0.1	5.3
AE ∆% Apr to Jun	2.0
Mar	-0.2	5.4
Feb	1.2	4.9
Jan	1.0	4.9
AE ∆% Jan to Mar	8.3
Dec 2010	0.5	4.6

AE: Annual Equivalent

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart IV-11 of the National Bureau of Statistics of China provides monthly and 12-month rates of consumer price inflation. In contrast with producer prices, consumer prices had not moderated at the monthly marginal rates. Consumer prices fell 0.2 percent in Nov 2011 after increasing only 0.1 percent in Oct but increased 0.3 percent in Dec and a high 1.5 percent in Jan 2012, declining 0.1 percent in Feb, rising 0.2 percent in Mar and declining 0.1 percent in Apr, 0.3 percent in May and 0.6 percent in Jun 2012 but increasing 0.1 percent in Jul, 0.6 percent in Aug 2012 and 0.3 percent in Sep 2012. Consumer prices fell 0.1 percent in Oct 2012. The decline of 0.1 percent in Feb 2012 pulled down the 12-month rate to 3.2 percent, which bounced back to 3.6 percent in Mar with the monthly increase of 0.2 percent and fell to 2.2 percent in Jun with increasing pace of monthly decline from Apr to Jun 2012. Even with increase of 0.1 percent in Jul 2012, consumer price inflation in 12 months fell to 1.8 percent in Jul 2012 but bounced back to 2.0 percent with increase of 0.6 percent in Aug. In Sep, increase of 0.3 percent still maintained 12-month inflation at 1.9 percent. The decline of 0.1 percent in Oct 2012 pulled down the 12-month rate to 1.7 percent, which is the lowest in Chart IV-3. Increase of 0.1 percent in Nov 2012 pulled up the 12-month rate to 2.0 percent. Abnormal increase of 0.8 percent in Dec 2012 because of winter weather pulled up the 12-month rate to 2.5 percent. Even with increase of 1.0 percent in Jan 2013 12-month inflation fell to 2.0 percent. Inflation of 1.1 percent in Feb 2013 pulled the 12-month rate to 3.2 percent. Collapse of food prices with decline of consumer prices by 0.9 percent in Mar 2013 brought down the 12-month rate to 2.1 percent. Renewed inflation of 0.2 percent in Apr 2013 raised the 12-month rate to 2.4 percent. Decline of inflation by 0.6 percent in May reduced 12-month inflation to 2.1 percent. Inflation rose to 2.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2013 with unchanged monthly inflation. Consumer prices increased 0.1 percent in Jul 2013 and 2.7 percent in 12 months. In combination of increases of food prices and other prices, inflation returned with 0.5 percent in Aug 2013 and 2.6 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices increased 0.8 percent in Sept 2013 and 3.1 percent in 12 months with increase in food prices of 1.5 in the month of Sep 2013. Consumer prices increased 0.1 percent in Oct 2013 and 3.2 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices fell 0.1 percent in Nov 2013 and increased 3.0 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices increased 0.3 percent in Dec 2013 and increased 2.5 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices increased 1.0 percent in Jan 2014 and 2.5 percent in 12 months. In Feb 2014, consumer prices increased 0.5 percent and 2.0 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices fell 0.5 percent in Mar 2014 and increased 2.4 percent in 12 months followed by 0.3 percent in Apr 2014 and 1.8 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices increased 0.1 percent in May 2014 and 2.5 percent in 12 months. In Jun 2014, consumer prices fell 0.1 percent and increased 2.3 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices increased 0.1 percent in Jul 2014 and increased 2.3 percent in 12 months. In Aug 2014, consumer prices increased 0.2 percent and rose 2.0 percent in 12 months. CPI inflation was 0.5 percent in Sep 2014 and 1.6 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices changed 0.0 percent in Oct 2014 and increased 1.6 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices decreased 0.2 percent in Nov 2014 and increased 1.4 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices increased 0.3 percent in Dec 2014 and increased 1.5 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices increased 0.3 percent in Jan 2015 and increased 0.8 percent in 12 months. The consumer price index increased 1.2 percent in Feb 2015 and increased 1.4 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices fell 0.5 percent in Mar 2015 and increased 1.4 percent in 12 months. The consumer price index fell 0.2 percent in Apr 2015 and increased 1.5 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices fell 0.2 percent in May 2015 and increased 1.2 percent in 12 months. The consumer price index changed 0.0 percent in Jun 2015 and increased 1.4 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices increased 0.3 percent in Jul 2015 and increased 1.6 percent in 12 months. The consumer price index increased 0.5 percent in Aug 2015 and increased 2.0 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices increased 0.1 percent in Sep 2015 and increased 1.6 percent in 12 months. The consumer price index fell 0.3 percent in Oct 2015 and increased 1.3 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices changed 0.0 percent in Nov 2015 and increased 1.5 percent in 12 months. The consumer price index increased 0.5 percent in Dec 2015 and increased 1.6 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices increased 0.5 percent in Jan 2016 and increased 1.8 percent in 12 months. The consumer price index increased 1.6 percent in Feb 2016 and increased 2.3 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices decreased 0.4 percent in Mar 2016 and increased 2.3 percent in 12 months. The consumer price index decreased 0.2 percent in Apr 2016 and increased 2.3 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices fell 0.1 percent in Jun 2016 and increased 1.9 percent in 12 months. The consumer price index increased 0.2 percent in Jul 2016 and increased 1.8 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices increased 0.1 percent in Aug 2016 and increased 1.3 percent in 12 months. The consumer price index increased 0.7 percent in Sep 2016 and increased 1.9 percent in 12 months. The consumer price index fell 0.1 percent in Oct 2016 and increased 2.1 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices increased 0.1 percent in Nov 2016 and increased 2.3 percent in 12 months. The consumer price index increased 0.2 percent in Dec 2016 and increased 2.1 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices increased 1.0 percent in Jan 2017 and increased 2.5 percent in 12 months. The consumer price index decreased 0.2 percent in Feb 2017 and increased 0.8 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices fell 0.3 percent in Mar 2017 and increased 0.9 percent in 12 months. The consumer price index increased 0.1 percent in Apr 2017 and increased 1.2 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices fell 0.1 percent in May 2017 and increased 1.5 percent in 12 months. The consumer price index decreased 0.2 percent in Jun 2017 and increased 1.5 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices increased 0.1 percent in Jul 2017 and increased 1.4 percent in 12 months. The consumer price index increased 0.4 percent in Aug 2017 and increased 1.8 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices increased 0.5 percent in Sep 2017 and increased 1.6 percent in 12 months. The consumer price index increased 0.1 percent in Oct 2017 and increased 1.9 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices changed 0.0 percent in Nov 2017 and increased 1.7 percent in 12 months. The consumer price index increased 0.3 percent in Dec 2017 and increased 1.8 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices increased 0.6 percent in Jan 2018 and increased 1.5 percent in 12 months. The consumer price index increased 1.2 percent in Feb 2018 and increased 2.9 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices decreased 1.1 percent in Mar 2018 and increased 2.1 percent in 12 months. The consumer price index decreased 0.2 percent in Apr 2018 and increased 1.8 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices decreased 0.2 percent in May 2018 and increased 1.8 percent in 12 months. The consumer price index decreased 0.1 percent in Jun 2018 and increased 1.9 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices increased 0.3 percent in Jul 2018 and increased 2.1 percent in 12 months. The consumer price index increased 0.7 percent in Aug 2018 and increased 2.3 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices increased 0.7 percent in Sep 2018 and increased 2.5 percent in 12 months. The consumer price index increased 0.2 percent in Oct 2018 and increased 2.5 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices decreased 0.3 percent in Nov 2018 and increased 2.2 percent in 12 months. The consumer price index changed 0.0 percent in Dec 2019 and increased 1.9 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices increased 0.5 percent in Jan 2019 and increased 1.7 percent in 12 months. The consumer price index increased 1.0 percent in Feb 2019 and increased 1.5 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices decreased 0.4 percent in Mar 2019 and increased 2.3 percent in 12 months. The consumer price index increased 0.1 percent in Apr 2019 and increased 2.5 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices changed 0.0 percent in May 2019 and increased 2.7 percent in 12 months. The consumer price index decreased 0.1 percent in Jun 2019 and increased 2.7 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices increased 0.4 percent in Jul 2019 and increased 2.8 percent in 12 months. The consumer price index increased 0.7 percent in Aug 2019 and increased 2.8 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices increased 0.9 percent in Sep 2019 and increased 3.0 percent in 12 months. The consumer price index increased 0.9 percent in Oct 2019 and increased 3.8 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices increased 0.4 percent in Nov 2019 and increased 4.5 percent in 12 months. The consumer price index changed 0.0 percent in Dec 2019 and increased 4.5 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices increased 1.4 percent in Jan 2020 and increased 5.4 percent in 12 months. The consumer price index increased 0.8 percent in Feb 2020 and increased 5.2 percent in 12 months. The consumer price index decreased 1.2 percent in Mar 2020 and increased 4.3 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices decreased 0.9 percent in Apr 2020 and increased 3.3 percent in 12 months. The consumer price index decreased 0.8 percent in May 2020 and increased 2.4 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices decreased 0.1 percent in Jun 2020 and increased 2.5 percent in 12 months. The consumer price index increased 0.6 percent in Jul 2020 and increased 2.7 percent in 12 months. Consumer prices increased 0.4 percent in Aug 2020 and increased 2.4 percent in 12 months. The consumer price index increased 0.2 percent in Sep 2020 and increased 1.7 percent in 12 months.

Chart IV-11, China, Consumer Prices ∆% Month and 12 Months

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020.