Mediocre Cyclical United States Economic Growth with GDP Two Trillion Dollars below Trend, Stagnating Real Private Fixed Investment, United States Housing, United States Commercial Banks Assets and Liabilities, World Cyclical Slow Growth and Global Recession Risk: Part VI

 

Mediocre Cyclical United States Economic Growth with GDP Two Trillion Dollars below Trend, Stagnating Real Private Fixed Investment, United States Housing, United States Commercial Banks Assets and Liabilities, World Cyclical Slow Growth and Global Recession Risk

Carlos M. Pelaez

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016

I Mediocre Cyclical United States Economic Growth with GDP Two Trillion Dollars below Trend

IA Mediocre Cyclical United States Economic Growth

IA1 Stagnating Real Private Fixed Investment

IIA United States Housing Collapse

IIB United States House Prices

II United States Commercial Banks Assets and Liabilities

III World Financial Turbulence

IIIA Financial Risks

IIIE Appendix Euro Zone Survival Risk

IIIF Appendix on Sovereign Bond Valuation

IV Global Inflation

V World Economic Slowdown

VA United States

VB Japan

VC China

VD Euro Area

VE Germany

VF France

VG Italy

VH United Kingdom

VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets

VII Economic Indicators

VIII Interest Rates

IX Conclusion

References

Appendixes

Appendix I The Great Inflation

IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies

IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact

IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort

IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis

IIIGA Monetary Policy with Deficit Financing of Economic Growth

V World Economic Slowdown. Table I-1 is constructed with the database of the IMF (http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29) to show GDP in dollars in 2014 and the growth rate of real GDP of the world and selected regional countries from 2014 to 2017. The data illustrate the concept often repeated of “two-speed recovery” of the world economy from the recession of 2007 to 2009. The IMF has changed its forecast of the world economy to 3.4 percent in 2014 and 3.1 percent in 2015 but accelerating to 3.6 percent in 2016 and 3.8 percent in 2017. Slow-speed recovery occurs in the “major advanced economies” of the G7 that account for $35,542 billion of world output of $77,269 billion, or 46.0 percent, but are projected to grow at much lower rates than world output, 2.0 percent on average from 2014 to 2017 in contrast with 3.5 percent for the world as a whole. While the world would grow 14.6 percent in the four years from 2014 to 2017, the G7 as a whole would grow 8.1 percent. The difference in dollars of 2014 is high: growing by 14.6 percent would add around $11.3 trillion of output to the world economy, or roughly, two times the output of the economy of Japan of $4,602 billion but growing by 8.1 percent would add $6.3 trillion of output to the world, or about the output of Japan in 2014. The “two speed” concept is in reference to the growth of the 150 countries labeled as emerging and developing economies (EMDE) with joint output in 2014 of $30,296 billion, or 39.2 percent of world output. The EMDEs would grow cumulatively 19.5 percent or at the average yearly rate of 4.5 percent, contributing $5.9 trillion from 2014 to 2017 or the equivalent of somewhat less than the GDP of $10,357 billion of China in 2014. The final four countries in Table I-1 often referred as BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China), are large, rapidly growing emerging economies. Their combined output in 2014 adds to $16,616 billion, or 21.5 percent of world output, which is equivalent to 46.8 percent of the combined output of the major advanced economies of the G7.

Table I-1, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Real GDP Growth

	GDP USD 2014	Real GDP ∆% 2014	Real GDP ∆% 2015	Real GDP ∆% 2016	Real GDP ∆% 2017
World	77,269	3.4	3.1	3.6	3.8
G7	35,542	1.7	1.9	2.2	2.1
Canada	1,785	2.4	1.0	1.7	2.4
France	2,834	0.2	1.2	1.5	1.6
DE	3,874	1.6	1.5	1.6	1.5
Italy	2,148	-0.4	0.8	1.3	1.2
Japan	4,602	-0.1	0.6	1.0	0.4
UK	2,950	3.0	2.5	2.2	2.2
US	17,348	2.4	2.6	2.8	2.8
Euro Area	13,457	0.9	1.5	1.6	1.7
DE	3,874	1.6	1.5	1.6	1.5
France	2,834	0.2	1.2	1.5	1.6
Italy	2,148	-0.4	0.8	1.3	1.2
POT	230	0.9	1.6	1.5	1.4
Ireland	251	5.2	4.9	3.8	3.2
Greece	238	0.8	-2.3	-1.3	2.7
Spain	1,407	1.4	3.1	2.5	2.2
EMDE	30,296	4.6	4.0	4.5	5.1
Brazil	2,347	0.1	-3.0	-1.0	2.3
Russia	1,861	0.6	-3.8	-0.6	1.0
India	2,051	7.3	7.3	7.5	7.5
China	10,357	7.3	6.8	6.3	6.0

Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries); POT: Portugal

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook databank

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/02/weodata/index.aspx

Continuing high rates of unemployment in advanced economies constitute another characteristic of the database of the WEO (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/01/weodata/index.aspx ). Table I-2 is constructed with the WEO database to provide rates of unemployment from 2013 to 2017 for major countries and regions. In fact, unemployment rates for 2014 in Table I-2 are high for all countries: unusually high for countries with high rates most of the time and unusually high for countries with low rates most of the time. The rates of unemployment are particularly high in 2014 for the countries with sovereign debt difficulties in Europe: 13.9 percent for Portugal (POT), 11.3 percent for Ireland, 26.5 percent for Greece, 24.5 percent for Spain and 12.7 percent for Italy, which is lower but still high. The G7 rate of unemployment is 6.4 percent. Unemployment rates are not likely to decrease substantially if slow growth persists in advanced economies.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/02/weodata/index.aspx

Table I-2, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Unemployment Rate as Percent of Labor Force

	% Labor Force 2013	% Labor Force 2014	% Labor Force 2015	% Labor Force 2016	% Labor Force 2017
World	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
G7	7.1	6.4	5.9	5.6	5.6
Canada	7.1	6.9	6.8	6.8	6.6
France	10.3	10.3	10.2	9.9	9.7
DE	5.2	5.0	4.7	4.7	4.7
Italy	12.2	12.7	12.2	11.9	11.6
Japan	4.0	3.6	3.5	3.5	3.6
UK	7.6	6.2	5.6	5.5	5.4
US	7.4	6.2	5.3	4.9	4.8
Euro Area	12.0	11.6	11.0	10.5	10.1
DE	5.2	5.0	4.7	4.7	4.7
France	10.3	10.3	10.2	9.9	9.7
Italy	12.2	12.7	12.2	11.9	11.6
POT	16.2	13.9	12.3	11.3	10.9
Ireland	13.0	11.3	9.6	8.5	7.7
Greece	27.5	26.5	26.8	27.1	25.7
Spain	26.1	24.5	21.8	19.9	18.7
EMDE	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
Brazil	5.4	4.8	6.6	8.6	8.9
Russia	5.5	5.2	6.0	6.5	6.0
India	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
China	4.1	4.1	4.1	4.1	4.1

Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries)

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/02/weodata/index.aspx

Table V-3 provides the latest available estimates of GDP for the regions and countries followed in this blog from IQ2012 to IIIQ2015 available now for all countries. There are preliminary estimates for all countries for IVQ2015. Growth is weak throughout most of the world.

• Japan. The GDP of Japan increased 0.9 percent in IQ2012, 3.7 percent at SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) and 3.5 percent relative to a year earlier but part of the jump could be the low level a year earlier because of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan is experiencing difficulties with the overvalued yen because of worldwide capital flight originating in zero interest rates with risk aversion in an environment of softer growth of world trade. Japan’s GDP fell 0.4 percent in IIQ2012 at the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of minus 1.6 percent, which is much lower than 3.7 percent in IQ2012. Growth of 3.5 percent in IIQ2012 in Japan relative to IIQ2011 has effects of the low level of output because of Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012 at the SAAR of minus 1.8 percent and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 at the SAAR of minus 0.3 percent and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan grew 1.0 percent in IQ2013 at the SAAR of 4.0 percent and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2013 at the SAAR of 2.7 percent and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP grew 0.5 percent in IIIQ2013 at the SAAR of 2.1 percent and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Japan’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent at the SAAR of minus 0.3 percent, increasing 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 1.2 percent in IQ2014 at the SAAR of 5.0 percent and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Japan’s GDP fell 2.0 percent at the SAAR of minus 7.9 percent and fell 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.6 percent in IIIQ2014 at the SAAR of minus 2.6 percent and fell 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, Japan’s GDP grew 0.6 percent, at the SAAR of 2.5 percent, decreasing 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 1.0 percent in IQ2015 at the SAAR of 4.2 percent and decreased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP decreased 0.3 percent in IIQ2015 at the SAAR of minus 1.4 percent and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2015 at the SAAR of 1.3 percent and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IVQ2015 at the SAAR of minus 1.4 percent and grew 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier
• China. China’s GDP grew 1.8 percent in IQ2012, annualizing to 7.4 percent, and 8.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 2.1 percent in IIQ2012, which annualizes to 8.7 percent and 7.5 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 1.8 percent in IIIQ2012, which annualizes at 7.4 percent and 7.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, China grew at 2.0 percent, which annualizes at 8.2 percent, and 8.0 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, China grew at 1.8 percent, which annualizes at 7.4 percent and 7.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, China grew at 1.7 percent, which annualizes at 7.0 percent and 7.5 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 2.2 percent in IIIQ2013, which annualizes at 9.1 percent and 7.9 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 1.6 percent in IVQ2013, which annualized to 6.6 percent and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP grew 1.6 percent in IQ2014, which annualizes to 6.6 percent, and 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP grew 1.8 percent in IIQ2014, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and 7.4 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP grew 1.8 percent in IIIQ2014, which is equivalent to 7.4 percent in a year, and 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew 1.7 percent in IVQ2014, which annualizes at 7.0 percent, and 7.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 1.3 percent in IQ2015, which annualizes at 5.3 percent, and 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew 1.9 percent in IIQ2015, which annualizes at 7.8 percent, and increased 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2015, China’s GDP grew at 1.8 percent, which annualizes at 7.4 percent and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 1.6 percent in IVQ2015, which annualizes at 6.6 percent and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. There is decennial change in leadership in China (http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/special/18cpcnc/index.htm). Growth rates of GDP of China in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier have been declining from 2011 to 2015.
• Euro Area. GDP fell 0.2 percent in the euro area in IQ2012 and decreased 0.5 in IQ2012 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP contracted 0.3 percent IIQ2012 and fell 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.1 percent and declined 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.4 percent relative to the prior quarter and fell 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, the GDP of the euro area fell 0.2 percent and decreased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2013, euro area GDP increased 0.2 percent and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2013 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The euro area’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The euro area’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier.
• Germany. The GDP of Germany increased 0.4 percent in IQ2012 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier but 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier when adjusted for calendar (CA) effects. In IIIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP contracted 0.5 percent in IVQ2012 and decreased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, Germany’s GDP decreased 0.3 percent and fell 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 0.9 percent and grew 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2013 and grew 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.7 percent in IQ2014 and grew 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Germany’s GDP contracted 0.1 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.4 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and grew 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2015 and grew 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2015 and grew 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier.
• United States. Growth of US GDP in IQ2012 was 0.7 percent, at SAAR of 2.7 percent and higher by 2.8 percent relative to IQ2011. US GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2012, 1.9 percent at SAAR and 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, US GDP grew 0.1 percent, 0.5 percent at SAAR and 2.4 percent relative to IIIQ2011. In IVQ2012, US GDP grew 0.0 percent, 0.1 percent at SAAR and 1.3 percent relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, US GDP grew at 1.9 percent SAAR, 0.5 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.1 percent relative to the same quarter in 2013. In IIQ2013, US GDP grew at 1.1 percent in SAAR, 0.3 percent relative to the prior quarter and 0.9 percent relative to IIQ2012. US GDP grew at 3.0 percent in SAAR in IIIQ2013, 0.7 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.5 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier (Section I and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/closely-monitoring-global-economic-and.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/dollar-revaluation-and-decreasing.html). In IVQ2013, US GDP grew 0.9 percent at 3.8 percent SAAR and 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, US GDP decreased 0.2 percent, increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier and fell 0.9 percent at SAAR. In IIQ2014, US GDP increased 1.1 percent at 4.6 percent SAAR and increased 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP increased 1.1 percent in IIIQ2014 at 4.3 percent SAAR and increased 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, US GDP increased 0.5 percent at SAAR of 2.1 percent and increased 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2015 at SAAR of 0.6 percent and grew 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR 3.9 percent in IIQ2015, increasing 1.0 percent in the quarter and 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2015 at SAAR of 2.0 percent and grew 2.1 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 1.0 percent in IVQ2015, increasing 0.3 percent in the quarter and 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier
• United Kingdom. In IQ2012, UK GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, GDP fell 0.2 percent relative to IQ2012 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, GDP increased 1.0 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier. In IVQ2012, GDP fell 0.1 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Fiscal consolidation in an environment of weakening economic growth is much more challenging. Growth increased to 1.4 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 0.7 percent in IQ2013 relative to IVQ2012. In IIQ2013, GDP increased 0.6 percent and 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.9 percent in IIIQ2013 and 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IVQ2013 and 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, GDP increased 0.6 percent and 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2014 and 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIIQ2013 and 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, GDP increased 0.7 percent and 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2015 and increased 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier.
• Italy. Italy’s GDP fell in eight consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IIQ2013 at increasingly higher rates of contraction from 0.5 percent in IIIQ2011 to 1.0 percent in IVQ2011, 1.0 percent in IQ2012, 0.7 percent in IIQ2012 and 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012. The pace of decline accelerated to minus 0.5 percent in IVQ2012 and minus 0.8 percent in IQ2013. GDP contracted cumulatively 5.1 percent in eight consecutive quarterly contractions from IIIQ2011 to IIQ2013 at the annual equivalent rate of minus 2.6 percent. The total contraction in the 13 quarters including IVQ2013, IQ2014, IIQ2014, IIIQ2014 and IVQ2014 accumulates to 5.7 percent. Italy’s GDP fell 1.0 percent in IQ2012 and declined 2.4 percent relative to IQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell 0.7 percent in IIQ2012 and declined 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, Italy’s GDP fell 0.5 percent and declined 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy contracted 0.5 percent in IVQ2012 and fell 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, Italy’s GDP contracted 0.8 percent and fell 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP contracted 0.2 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2013 and declined 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2013 and decreased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, Italy’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent and fell 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy fell 0.2 percent in IIQ2014 and declined 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2014, Italy’s GDP contracted 0.1 percent and fell 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ20214 and declined 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2015, Italy’s GDP increased 0.4 percent and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2015 and grew 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier.
• France. France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IQ2012 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.3 percent in IIQ2012 and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, France’s GDP increased 0.3 percent and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2013 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2013 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2013 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, France’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, France’s GDP contracted 0.1 percent and decreased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2014 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2015, France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2015, the GDP of France increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier.

Table V-3, Percentage Changes of GDP Quarter on Prior Quarter and on Same Quarter Year Earlier, ∆%

	IQ2012/IVQ2011	IQ2012/IQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.7        SAAR: 2.7	2.8
Japan	QOQ: 0.9 SAAR: 3.7	3.5
China	1.8	8.0
Euro Area	-0.2	-0.5
Germany	0.4	1.5
France	0.0	0.4
Italy	-1.0	-2.4
United Kingdom	0.2	1.5
	IIQ2012/IQ2012	IIQ2012/IIQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.5         SAAR: 1.9	2.5
Japan	QOQ: -0.4 SAAR: -1.6	3.5
China	2.1	7.5
Euro Area	-0.3	-0.8
Germany	0.1	0.3 0.8 CA
France	-0.3	0.2
Italy	-0.7	-3.2
United Kingdom	-0.2	1.0
	IIIQ2012/ IIQ2012	IIIQ2012/ IIIQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.1  SAAR: 0.5	2.4
Japan	QOQ: –0.5 SAAR: –1.8	0.2
China	1.8	7.4
Euro Area	-0.1	-0.9
Germany	0.2	0.1
France	0.3	0.3
Italy	-0.5	-3.2
United Kingdom	1.0	1.2
	IVQ2012/IIIQ2012	IVQ2012/IVQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.0 SAAR: 0.1	1.3
Japan	QOQ: -0.1 SAAR: -0.3	0.0
China	2.0	8.0
Euro Area	-0.4	-1.1
Germany	-0.5	-0.3
France	-0.1	0.0
Italy	-0.5	-2.7
United Kingdom	-0.1	1.0
	IQ2013/IVQ2012	IQ2013/IQ2012
United States	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 1.9	1.1
Japan	QOQ: 1.0 SAAR: 4.0	0.3
China	1.8	7.8
Euro Area	-0.2	-1.1
Germany	-0.3	-1.7
France	0.1	0.1
Italy	-0.8	-2.5
UK	0.7	1.4
	IIQ2013/IQ2013	IIQ2013/IIQ2012
United States	QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.1	0.9
Japan	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.7	1.1
China	1.7	7.5
Euro Area	0.4	-0.4
Germany	0.9	0.7
France	0.8	1.1
Italy	-0.2	-2.0
UK	0.6	2.2
	IIIQ2013/IIQ2013	III/Q2013/  IIIQ2012
USA	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 3.0	1.5
Japan	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.1	2.0
China	2.2	7.9
Euro Area	0.2	0.0
Germany	0.4	1.0
France	-0.1	0.8
Italy	0.0	-1.4
UK	0.9	2.1
	IVQ2013/IIIQ2013	IVQ2013/IVQ2012
USA	QOQ: 0.9 SAAR: 3.8	2.5
Japan	QOQ: -0.1 SAAR: -0.3	2.1
China	1.6	7.6
Euro Area	0.2	0.6
Germany	0.3	1.2
France	0.2	1.0
Italy	-0.1	-1.0
UK	0.6	2.8
	IQ2014/IVQ2013	IQ2014/IQ2013
USA	QOQ -0.2 SAAR -0.9	1.7
Japan	QOQ: 1.2 SAAR: 5.0	2.7
China	1.6	7.3
Euro Area	0.2	1.1
Germany	0.7	2.6
France	-0.2	0.7
Italy	-0.1	-0.3
UK	0.6	2.8
	IIQ2014/IQ2014	IIQ2014/IIQ2013
USA	QOQ 1.1 SAAR 4.6	2.6
Japan	QOQ: -2.0 SAAR: -7.9	-0.3
China	1.8	7.4
Euro Area	0.1	0.7
Germany	-0.1	1.0
France	-0.1	-0.2
Italy	-0.2	-0.3
UK	0.8	3.0
	IIIQ2014/IIQ2014	IIIQ2014/IIIQ2013
USA	QOQ: 1.1 SAAR: 4.3	2.9
Japan	QOQ: -0.6 SAAR: -2.6	-1.5
China	1.8	7.1
Euro Area	0.3	0.8
Germany	0.2	1.2
France	0.3	0.1
Italy	-0.1	-0.4
UK	0.7	2.8
	IVQ2014/IIIQ2014	IVQ2014/IVQ2013
USA	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.1	2.5
Japan	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.5	-1.0
China	1.7	7.2
Euro Area	0.4	0.9
Germany	0.6	1.6
France	0.1	0.0
Italy	-0.1	-0.5
UK	0.7	2.8
	IQ2015/IVQ2014	IQ2015/IQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.2 SAAR: 0.6	2.9
Japan	QOQ: 1.0 SAAR: 4.2	-1.0
China	1.3	7.0
Euro Area	0.5	1.3
Germany	0.4	1.3
France	0.7	0.9
Italy	0.4	0.1
UK	0.4	2.6
	IIQ2015/IQ2015	IIQ2015/IIQ2014
USA	QOQ: 1.0 SAAR: 3.9	2.7
Japan	QOQ: -0.3 SAAR: -1.4	0.7
China	1.9	7.0
Euro Area	0.4	1.6
Germany	0.4	1.6
France	0.0	1.1
Italy	0.3	0.5
UK	0.6	2.4
	IIIQ2015/IIQ2015	IIIQ2015/IIIQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.0	2.1
Japan	QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.3	1.7
China	1.8	6.9
Euro Area	0.3	1.6
Germany	0.3	1.7
France	0.3	1.1
Italy	0.2	0.8
UK	0.4	2.1
	IVQ2015/IIIQ2015	IVQ2015/IVQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.0	1.9
Japan	QOQ: -0.4 SAAR: -1.4	0.5
China	1.6	6.8
Euro Area	0.3	1.5
Germany	0.3	2.1
France	0.3	1.4
Italy	0.1	1.0
UK	0.5	1.9

QOQ: Quarter relative to prior quarter; SAAR: seasonally adjusted annual rate

Source: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.census.gov/aboutus/stat_int.html

Table V-4 provides two types of data: growth of exports and imports in the latest available months and in the past 12 months; and contributions of net trade (exports less imports) to growth of real GDP.

• Japan. Japan provides the most worrisome data (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/global-decline-of-values-of-financial.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/07/valuation-of-risk-financial-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/fluctuating-financial-asset-valuations.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/dollar-revaluation-squeezing-corporate.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/patience-on-interest-rate-increases.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/monetary-policy-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/valuation-risks-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/interest-rate-risks-world-inflation.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/global-financial-risk-world-inflation.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations_8763.html http://cmpass ocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/paring-quantitative-easing-policy-and_4699.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/thirty-one-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/12/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_24.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/11/contraction-of-united-states-real_25.html and for GDP http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what_13.html). In Jan 2016, Japan’s exports decreased 12.9 percent in 12 months while imports decreased 18.0 percent. The second part of Table V-4 shows that net trade deducted 1.6 percentage points from Japan’s growth of GDP in IIQ2012, deducted 1.8 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2012 and deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2012. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2012, 1.8 percentage points in IQ2013 and deducted 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2013. In IIIQ2013, net trade deducted 1.3 percentage points from GDP growth in Japan. Net trade ducted 2.0 percentage points from GDP growth in Japan in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 0.9 percentage points from GDP growth of Japan in IQ2014. Net trade added 3.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2014. Net trade added 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2014 and added 1.4 percentage points in IVQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2015 and deducted 1.3 percentage points in IIQ2015. Net trade added 0.8 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2015 and added 0.6 percentage points in IVQ2015

• China. In Jan 2016, China exports decreased 11.2 percent relative to a year earlier and imports decreased 18.8 percent.
• Germany. Germany’s exports decreased 1.6 percent in the month of Dec 2015 and increased 3.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2015. Germany’s imports decreased 1.6 percent in the month of Dec 2015 and increased 3.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2015. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to growth of GDP in IQ2012, contributed 0.4 percentage points in IIQ2012, contributed 0.3 percentage points in IIIQ2012, deducted 0.5 percentage points in IVQ2012, deducted 0.3 percentage points in IQ2013 and added 0.1 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded deducted 0.5 percentage points from Germany’s GDP growth in IIIQ2013 and added 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2014. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2014 and added 0.5 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.3 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.5 percentage points in IVQ2015.
• United Kingdom. Net trade contributed 0.7 percentage points in IIQ2013. In IIIQ2013, net trade deducted 1.7 percentage points from UK growth. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to UK value added in IVQ2013. Net trade contributed 0.2 percentage points to UK value added in IQ2014 and 0.5 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2014 and added 0.2 percentage points in IVQ2014. Net traded deducted 1.0 percentage points from growth in IQ2015. Net trade added 1.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 1.0 percentage points in IIIQ2015
• France. France’s exports decreased 0.9 percent in Dec 2015 while imports decreased 2.2 percent. France’s exports increased 0.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2015 and imports increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Net traded added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IIIQ2012 and 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IQ2013 and added 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2013, deducting 1.7 percentage points in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IVQ2013 and deducted 0.1 percentage points in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IIQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to France’s GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.7 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.5 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015
• United States. US exports decreased 0.3 percent in Dec 2015 and goods exports decreased 7.1 percent in Jan-Dec 2015 relative to a year earlier. Imports decreased 0.3 percent in Dec 2015 and goods imports decreased 4.5 percent in Jan-Dec 2015 relative to a year earlier. Net trade added 0.28 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2012 and added 0.16 percentage points in IIIQ2012 and 0.58 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade deducted 0.01 percentage points from US GDP growth in IQ2013 and deducted 0.24 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded added 0.16 percentage points to US GDP growth in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 1.26 percentage points to US GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 1.39 percentage points from US GDP growth in IQ2014 and deducted 0.24 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade added 0.39 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.89 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 1.92 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.18 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.26 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.25 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015. Industrial production increased 0.9 percent in Jan 2016 and decreased 0.7 percent in Dec 2015 after decreasing 0.8 percent in Nov 2015, with all data seasonally adjusted. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System conducted the annual revision of industrial production released on Jul 21, 2015 (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/revisions/Current/DefaultRev.htm):

“The Federal Reserve has revised its index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization. Total IP is now reported to have increased slightly less than 2 1/2 percent per year, on average, from 2011 through 2013 before advancing about 4 1/2 percent in 2014 and falling back somewhat in the first half of 2015. Relative to earlier reports, the current rates of change are lower---especially for 2012 and 2013. For the most recent recession, total IP still shows a peak-to-trough decline of about 17 percent, and the dates for the peak and trough are unaltered. However, the lower rates of change for recent years indicate that the recovery in the industrial sector since the trough has been slower than reported earlier. Total IP is now estimated to have returned to its pre-recession peak in May 2014, seven months later than previously estimated.”

Manufacturing declined 22.2 from the peak in Jun 2007 to the trough in Apr 2009 and increased 19.8 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Dec 2015. Manufacturing grew 19.3 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Jan 2016. Manufacturing in Jan 2016 is lower by 7.2 percent relative to the peak in Jun 2007. The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IVQ2015 would have accumulated to 26.7 percent. GDP in IVQ2015 would be $18,994.6 billion (in constant dollars of 2009) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $2,552.3 billion than actual $16,442.3 billion. There are about two trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 26.5 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 15.9 percent of the effective labor force (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/fluctuating-risk-financial-assets-in.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/weakening-equities-with-exchange-rate.html). US GDP in IVQ2015 is 13.4 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $14,991.8 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $16,442.3 billion in IVQ2015 or 9.7 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.2 percent. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 3.2 percent per year from Jan 1919 to Jan 2016. Growth at 3.2 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output from 107.6075 in Dec 2007 to 138.8098 in Jan 2016. The actual index NSA in Jan 2016 is 103.8436, which is 25.2 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 2.2 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2015. Using trend growth of 2.2 percent per year, the index would increase to 128.3031 in Jan 2016. The output of manufacturing at 103.8436 in Jan 2016 is 19.1 percent below trend under this alternative calculation.

Table V-4, Growth of Trade and Contributions of Net Trade to GDP Growth, ∆% and % Points

	Exports M ∆%	Exports 12 M ∆%	Imports M ∆%	Imports 12 M ∆%
USA	-0.3 Dec	-7.1 Jan-Dec	0.3 Dec	-4.5 Jan-Dec
Japan		Jan 2016 -12.9 Dec 2015 -8.0 Nov 2015 -3.3 Oct 2015 -2.1 Sep 2015 0.6 Aug 3.1 Jul 2015 7.6 Jun 2015 9.5 May 2015 2.4 Apr 8.0 Mar 8.5 Feb 2.4 Jan 17.0 Dec 12.9 Nov 4.9 Oct 9.6 Sep 6.9 Aug -1.3 Jul 3.9 Jun -2.0 May 2014 -2.7 Apr 2014 5.1 Mar 2014 1.8 Feb 2014 9.5 Jan 2014 9.5 Dec 2013 15.3 Nov 2013 18.4 Oct 2013 18.6 Sep 2013 11.5 Aug 2013 14.7 Jul 2013 12.2 Jun 2013 7.4 May 2013 10.1 Apr 2013 3.8 Mar 2013 1.1 Feb 2013 -2.9 Jan 2013 6.4 Dec -5.8 Nov -4.1 Oct -6.5 Sep -10.3 Aug -5.8 Jul -8.1		Jan 2016 -18.0 Dec 2015 -18.0 Nov 2015 -10.2 Oct 2015 -13.4 Sep 2015 -11.1 Aug -3.1 Jul 2015 -3.2 Jun 2015 -2.9 May 2015 -8.7 Apr -4.2 Mar -14.5 Feb -3.6 Jan -9.0 Dec 1.9 Nov -1.7 Oct 2.7 Sep 6.2 Aug -1.5 Jul 2.3 Jun 8.4 May 2014 -3.6 Apr 2013 3.4 Mar 2014 18.1 Feb 2014 9.0 Jan 2014 25.0 Dec 2013 24.7 Nov 2013 21.1 Oct 2013 26.1 Sep 2013 16.5 Aug 2013 16.0 Jul 2013 19.6 Jun 2013 11.8 May 2013 10.0 Apr 2013 9.4 Mar 2013 5.5 Feb 2013 7.3 Jan 2013 7.3 Dec 1.9 Nov 0.8 Oct -1.6 Sep 4.1 Aug -5.4 Jul 2.1
China	Jan-Dec 2015 -2.8	2016 Jan -11.2 2015 -1.4 Dec -6.8 Nov -6.9 Oct -3.7 Sep -5.5 Aug -8.3 Jul 2.8 Jun -2.5 May -6.4 Apr -15.0 Mar 48.3 Feb -3.3 Jan 2014 9.7 Dec 4.7 Nov 11.6 Oct 15.3 Sep 9.4 Aug 14.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 7.0 May 0.9 Apr -6.6 Mar -18.1 Feb 10.6 Jan 2013 4.3 Dec 12.7 Nov 5.6 Oct -0.3 Sep 7.2 Aug 5.1 Jul -3.1 Jun 1.0 May 14.7 Apr 10.0 Mar 21.8 Feb 25.0 Jan	Jan-Dec 2015 -14.1	2016 Jan -18.8 2015 -7.6 Dec -8.7 Nov -18.8 Oct -20.4 Sep -13.8 Aug -8.1 Jul -6.1 Jun -17.6 May -12.7 Mar -20.5 Feb -19.9 Jan 2014 -2.4 Dec -6.7 Nov 4.6 Oct 7.0 Sep -2.4 Aug -1.6 Jul 5.5 Jun -1.6 May -0.8 Apr -11.3 Mar 10.1 Feb 10.0 Jan 2013 8.3 Dec 5.3 Nov 7.6 Oct 7.4 Sep 7.0 Aug 10.9 Jul -0.7 Jun -0.3 May 16.8 Apr 14.1 Mar -15.2 Feb 28.8 Jan
Euro Area	3.3 12 M-Dec	5.3 Jan-Dec	2.3 12-M Dec	3.4 Jan-Dec
Germany	-1.6 Dec CSA	3.2 Dec	-1.6 Dec CSA	3.5 Dec
France Dec	-0.9	0.9	-2.2	1.3
Italy Dec	-2.2	3.0	-3.5	2.6
UK	-0.8 Dec	-2.9 Oct 15-Dec 15 /Oct 14-Dec 14	-3.6 Nov	-1.9 Oct 15-Dec 15 /Oct 14-Dec 14
Net Trade % Points GDP Growth	Points
USA	IVQ2015 -0.25 IIIQ2015 -0.26 IIQ2015 0.18 IQ2015 -1.92 IVQ2014 -0.89 IIIQ2014 0.39 IIQ2014 -0.24 IQ2014 -1.39 IVQ2013 1.26 IIIQ2013 0.16 IIQ2013 -0.24 IQ2013 -0.01 IVQ2012 +0.58 IIIQ2012 0.16 IIQ2012 0.28 IQ2012 -0.02
Japan	0.4 IQ2012 -1.6 IIQ2012 -1.8 IIIQ2012 -0.6 IVQ2012 1.8 IQ2013 -0.3 IIQ2013 -1.3 IIIQ2013 -2.0 IVQ2013 -0.9 IQ2014 3.6 IIQ2014 0.5 IIIQ2014 1.4 IVQ2014 0.0 IQ2015 -1.3 IIQ2015 0.8 IIIQ2015 0.6 IVQ2015
Germany	IQ2012 0.8 IIQ2012 0.4 IIIQ2012 0.3 IVQ2012 -0.5 IQ2013 -0.3 IIQ2013 0.1 IIIQ2013 -0.5 IVQ2013 0.5 IQ2014 0.0 IIQ2014 0.2 IIIQ2014 0.5 IVQ2014 -0.3 IQ2015 -0.2 IIQ2015 0.6 IIIQ2015 -0.3 IVQ2015 -0.5
France	0.1 IIIQ2012 0.1 IVQ2012 -0.1 IQ2013 0.3 IIQ2013 -1.7 IIIQ2013 0.1 IVQ2013 -0.1 IQ2014 -0.2 IIQ2014 -0.2 IIIQ2014 0.2 IVQ2014 -0.2 IQ2015 0.4 IIQ2015 -0.7 IIIQ2015 -0.5 IVQ2015
UK	0.7 IIQ2013 -1.7 IIIQ2013 0.1 IVQ2013 0.2 IQ2014 0.5 IIQ2014 -0.5 IIIQ2014 0.2 IVQ2014 -1.2 IQ2015 1.7 IIQ2015 -1.0 IIIQ2015 -0.4 IVQ2015

Sources: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/

The geographical breakdown of exports and imports of Japan with selected regions and countries is in Table V-5 for Jan 2016. The share of Asia in Japan’s trade is close to one-half for 50.9 percent of exports and 52.3 percent of imports. Within Asia, exports to China are 16.1 percent of total exports and imports from China 27.9 percent of total imports. While exports to China decreased 17.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2016, imports from China decreased 6.0 percent. The largest export market for Japan in Jan 2016 is the US with share of 21.1 percent of total exports, which is close to that of China, and share of imports from the US of 9.8 percent in total imports. Japan’s exports to the US decreased 5.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2016 and imports from the US decreased 9.7 percent. Western Europe has share of 12.1 percent in Japan’s exports and of 12.9 percent in imports. Rates of growth of exports of Japan in Jan 2016 are minus 5.3 percent for exports to the US, minus 45.7 percent for exports to Brazil and minus 7.9 percent for exports to Germany. Comparisons relative to 2011 may have some bias because of the effects of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Deceleration of growth in China and the US and threat of recession in Europe can reduce world trade and economic activity. Growth rates of imports in the 12 months ending in Jan 2016 are mixed. Imports from Asia decreased 12.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2016 while imports from China decreased 6.0 percent. Data are in millions of yen, which may have effects of recent depreciation of the yen relative to the United States dollar (USD) and revaluation of the dollar relative to the euro.

Table V-5, Japan, Value and 12-Month Percentage Changes of Exports and Imports by Regions and Countries, ∆% and Millions of Yen

Jan 2016	Exports Millions Yen	12 months ∆%	Imports Millions Yen	12 months ∆%
Total	5,351,639	-12.9	5,997,582	-18.0
Asia	2,723,519 % Total 50.9	-17.8	3,137,201 % Total 52.3	-12.0
China	860,032 % Total 16.1	-17.5	1,673,621 % Total 27.9	-6.0
USA	1,128,744 % Total 21.1	-5.3	584,815 % Total 9.8	-9.7
Canada	60,897	-22.2	81,323	-12.8
Brazil	22,055	-45.7	79,551	-8.2
Mexico	81,443	-7.3	55,237	43.5
Western Europe	646,517 % Total 12.1	-3.8	774,614 % Total 12.9	4.4
Germany	147,771	-7.9	208,499	-0.1
France	48,380	-0.5	82,372	-16.4
UK	120,160	3.8	59,063	-0.4
Middle East	217,154	0.2	577,550	-43.5
Australia	96,336	-16.8	292,947	-37.3

Source: Japan, Ministry of Finance http://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/info/index_e.htm

World trade projections of the IMF are in Table V-6. There is increasing growth of the volume of world trade of goods and services from 3.3 percent in 2014 to 4.1 percent in 2016 and 4.7 percent on average from 2017 to 2019. World trade would be slower for advanced economies while emerging and developing economies (EMDE) experience faster growth. World economic slowdown would be more challenging with lower growth of world trade.

Table V-6, IMF, Projections of World Trade, USD Billions, USD/Barrel and Annual ∆%

	2014	2015	2016	Average ∆% 2017-2019
World Trade Volume (Goods and Services)	3.3	3.2	4.1	4.7
Exports Goods & Services	3.2	3.4	3.9	4.6
Imports Goods & Services	3.5	3.0	4.3	4.8
Average Oil Price USD/Barrel	96.25	51.62	50.36	Average ∆% 2007-2016 82.03
Average Annual ∆% Export Unit Value of Manufactures	-0.6	-4.1	-0.7	Average ∆% 2007-2016 0.8
Exports of Goods & Services	2014	2015	2016	Average ∆% 2007-2016
EMDE	2.9	3.9	4.8	4.6
G7	3.4	3.1	3.4	2.9
Imports Goods & Services
EMDE	3.6	1.3	4.4	6.0
G7	3.4	4.0	4.2	2.4
Terms of Trade of Goods & Services
EMDE	-0.5	-4.7	-1.0	0.1
G7	0.4	1.6	0.1	0.0
Terms of Trade of Goods
EMDE	-0.6	-4.3	-0.6	0.2
G7	0.2	1.4	0.0	-0.1

Notes: Commodity Price Index includes Fuel and Non-fuel Prices; Commodity Industrial Inputs Price includes agricultural raw materials and metal prices; Oil price is average of WTI, Brent and Dubai

Source: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook databank

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/02/weodata/index.aspx

The JP Morgan Global All-Industry Output Index of the JP Morgan Manufacturing and Services PMI^™, produced by JP Morgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM, with high association with world GDP, decreased to 52.5 in Jan from 52.7 in Dec, indicating expansion at slower rate (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/70c47b048dd64219b99dc4d2b3d20f08). This index has remained above the contraction territory of 50.0 during 39 consecutive months. The employment index increased from 51.8 in Dec to 52.1 in Jan with input prices rising at slower rate, new orders increasing at faster rate and output increasing at slower rate (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/70c47b048dd64219b99dc4d2b3d20f08). David Hensley, Director of Global Economic Coordination at JP Morgan, finds slowing growth at the beginning of 2016 but with increasing orders (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/70c47b048dd64219b99dc4d2b3d20f08). The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI^™, produced by JP Morgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM, increased to 50.9 in Jan from 50.7 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/3e171bc4c0dd4e388c2e8b2750ffb919). New export orders increased at the same rate. David Hensley, Director of Global Economic Coordination at JP Morgan, finds the index suggesting moderate improvement in new orders but with export orders near stagnation (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/3e171bc4c0dd4e388c2e8b2750ffb919). The Markit Brazil Composite Output Index increased from 43.9 in Dec to 45.1 in Jan, indicating contraction in activity of Brazil’s private sector (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/fe80a2dc670641329fd0377c0d3d348b). The Markit Brazil Services Business Activity index, compiled by Markit, increased from 43.5 in Dec to 44.4 in Jan, indicating contracting services activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/fe80a2dc670641329fd0377c0d3d348b). Pollyana De Lima, Economist at Markit, finds challenging conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/fe80a2dc670641329fd0377c0d3d348b). The Markit Brazil Purchasing Managers’ Index^TM (PMI^™) increased from 45.6 in Dec to 47.4 in Jan, indicating deterioration in manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/bc34237e385745df8e6025e226c9a283). Pollyanna De Lima, Economist at Markit, finds stress in manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/bc34237e385745df8e6025e226c9a283).

VA United States. The Markit Flash US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) seasonally adjusted decreased to 51.0 in Feb from 52.4 in Jan (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/32fdbc6bffe541938de1b805bdce999e). New export orders in decreased because of the strong US dollar and week world economy. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds the weakest business environment in more than three years (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/32fdbc6bffe541938de1b805bdce999e). The Markit Flash US Services PMI™ Business Activity Index decreased from 53.2 in Jan to 49.8 in Feb (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/b4812aba6c884adb8e186062f3632267). The Markit Flash US Composite PMI™ Output Index decreased from 53.2 in Jan to 50.1 in Feb. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds that the surveys are consistent with risk of contraction in IQ2015 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/b4812aba6c884adb8e186062f3632267). The Markit US Composite PMI™ Output Index of Manufacturing and Services decreased to 53.2 in Jan from 54.0 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/75d3a3339e8d43ab934e9b8821943d47). The Markit US Services PMI™ Business Activity Index decreased from 54.3 in Dec to 53.2 in Jan (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/75d3a3339e8d43ab934e9b8821943d47). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds the indexes suggesting weaker growth (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/75d3a3339e8d43ab934e9b8821943d47). The Markit US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) increased to 52.4 in Jan from 51.2 in Dec, which indicates expansion at faster rate (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/bc714a2168d245a699306b65ee377b07). New foreign orders increased mildly. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds constrains from the stronger dollar (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/bc714a2168d245a699306b65ee377b07). The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Report on Business^® increased 0.2 percentage points from 48.0 in Dec to 48.2 in Jan, which indicates contraction at slower rate (https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm?navItemNumber=30219). The index of new orders increased 2.7 percentage points from 48.8 in Dec to 51.5 in Jan. The index of new exports decreased 4.0 percentage points from 51.0 in Dec to 47.0 in Jan, contracting from expanding. The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report on Business^® PMI decreased 2.3 percentage points from 55.8 in Dec to 53.5 in Jan, indicating growth of business activity/production during 78 consecutive months, while the index of new orders decreased 2.4 percentage points from 58.9 in Dec to 56.5 in Jan (https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm?navItemNumber=30224). Table USA provides the country economic indicators for the US.

Table USA, US Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index	Jan 12 months NSA ∆%: 1.4; ex food and energy ∆%: 2.2 Jan month SA ∆%: 0.0; ex food and energy ∆%: 0.3 Blog 2/21/16
Producer Price Index	Finished Goods Jan 12-month NSA ∆%: -1.2; ex food and energy ∆% 1.7 Jan month SA ∆% = -0.5; ex food and energy ∆%: 0.1 Final Demand Jan 12-month NSA ∆%: -0.2; ex food and energy ∆% 0.6 Jan month SA ∆% = 0.1; ex food and energy ∆%: 0.4 Blog 2/21/16
PCE Inflation	Dec 12-month NSA ∆%: headline 0.6; ex food and energy ∆% 1.4 Blog 2/7/16
Employment Situation	Household Survey: Dec Unemployment Rate SA 4.9% Blog calculation People in Job Stress Dec: 26.5 million NSA, 15.9% of Labor Force Establishment Survey: Nov Nonfarm Jobs +151,000; Private +158,000 jobs created  Dec 12-month Average Hourly Earnings Inflation Adjusted ∆%: 1.8 Blog 2/7/16
Nonfarm Hiring	Nonfarm Hiring fell from 63.3 million in 2006 to 54.2 million in 2013 or by 9.1 million and to 58.7 million in 2014 or by 4.6 million Private-Sector Hiring Dec 2015 3.667 million higher by 2.8 percent than 3.568 million in Dec 2006 Blog 2/14/16
GDP Growth	BEA Revised National Income Accounts IQ2012/IQ2011 ∆%: 2.8 IIQ2012/IIQ2011 2.5 IIIQ2012/IIIQ2011 2.4 IVQ2012/IVQ2011 1.3 IQ2013/IQ2012 1.1 IIQ2013/IIQ2012 0.9 IIIQ2013/IIIQ2012 1.5 IVQ2013/IVQ2012 2.5 IQ2014/IQ2013 1.7 IIQ2014/IIQ2013 2.6 IIIQ2014/IIIQ2013 2.9 IVQ2014/IVQ2013 2.5 IQ2015/IQ2014 2.9 IIQ2015/IIQ2014 2.7 IIIQ2015/IIIQ2014: 2.1 IVQ2015/IVQ2014 1.9 IQ2012 SAAR 2.7 IIQ2012 SAAR 1.9 IIIQ2012 SAAR 0.5 IVQ2012 SAAR 0.1 IQ2013 SAAR 1.9 IIQ2013 SAAR 1.1 IIIQ2013 SAAR 3.0 IVQ2013 SAAR 3.8 IQ2014 SAAR -0.9 IIQ2014 SAAR 4.6 IIIQ2014 SAAR 4.3 IVQ2014 SAAR 2.1 IQ2015 SAAR 0.6 IIQ2015 SAAR: 3.9 IIIQ2015 SAAR: 2.0 IVQ2015 SAAR: 1.0 Blog 2/28/16
Real Private Fixed Investment	SAAR IVQ2015 ∆% 0.1 IVQ2007 to IVQ2015: 6.8% Blog 2/28/16
Corporate Profits	IIIQ2015 SAAR: Corporate Profits -1.6; Undistributed Profits -8.0 Blog 12/27/15
Personal Income and Consumption	Dec month ∆% SA Real Disposable Personal Income (RDPI) SA ∆% 0.4 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (RPCE): 0.1 12-month Dec NSA ∆%: RDPI: 3.1; RPCE ∆%: 2.2 Blog 2/7/16
Quarterly Services Report	IIIQ15/IIIQ14 NSA ∆%: Information 3.6 Financial & Insurance 1.1 Earlier Data: Blog 3/22/15
Employment Cost Index	Compensation Private IVQ2015 SA ∆%: 0.5 Dec 12 months ∆%: 1.9 Earlier Data: Blog 2/1/15
Industrial Production	Jan month SA ∆%: 0.9 Jan 12 months SA ∆%: -0.7 Manufacturing Jan SA 0.5 ∆% Jan 12 months SA ∆% 1.2, NSA 1.4 Capacity Utilization: 77.1 Blog 2/21/16
Productivity and Costs	Nonfarm Business Productivity IVQ2015∆% SAAE -3.0; IVQ2015/IVQ2014 ∆% 0.3; Unit Labor Costs SAAE IVQ2015 ∆% 4.5; IVQ2015/IVQ2014 ∆%: 2.8 Blog 2/7/16
New York Fed Manufacturing Index	General Business Conditions From Jan minus 19.37 to Feb minus 16.64 New Orders: From Jan minus 23.54 to Feb minus 11.63 Blog 2/21/16
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index	General Index from Jan -3.5 to Feb -2.8 New Orders from Jan -11.4 to Feb -5.3 Blog 2/21/16
Manufacturing Shipments and Orders	Dec Orders SA Dec ∆% -2.9 Ex Transport -0.8 Jan-Dec NSA New Orders ∆% minus 6.6 Ex transport minus 6.8 Earlier data: Blog 4/5/15
Durable Goods	Dec New Orders SA ∆%: 4.9 ; ex transport ∆%: 1.8 Jan-Dec 15/Jan-Dec 14 New Orders NSA ∆%: 0.6; ex transport ∆% -2.5 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15
Sales of New Motor Vehicles	Jan 2016 1,148,057; Jan 2015 1,151,123. Jan 16 SAAR 17.58 million, Dec 15 SAAR 17.34 million, Jan 2015 SAAR 16.72 million Blog 2/7/16
Sales of Merchant Wholesalers	Jan-Dec 2015/Jan-Dec 2014 NSA ∆%: Total -3.6; Durable Goods: 0.3; Nondurable Goods: -7.0 EARLIER DATA: Blog 4/12/15
Sales and Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers	Dec 15 12-M NSA ∆%: Sales Total Business -2.4; Manufacturers -5.1 Retailers 2.5; Merchant Wholesalers -4.2 Blog 2/14/16
Sales for Retail and Food Services	Jan 2016/Jan 2015 ∆%: Retail and Food Services 1.4; Retail ∆% 0.8 Blog 2/14/16
Value of Construction Put in Place	SAAR month SA Nov ∆%: minus 0.1 Jan-Dec NSA: 10.5 Earlier Data: Blog 4/5/15
Case-Shiller Home Prices	Dec 2015/ Dec 2014 ∆% NSA: 10 Cities 5.1; 20 Cities: 5.7; National: 5.4 ∆% Dec SA: 10 Cities 0.7 ; 20 Cities: 0.8 Blog 2/28/16
FHFA House Price Index Purchases Only	Dec SA ∆% 0.4; 12 month NSA ∆%: 5.7 Blog 2/28/16
New House Sales	Jan 2016 month SAAR ∆%: minus 9.2 Jan 2016/Jan 2015 NSA ∆%: minus 5.1 Blog 2/28/16
Housing Starts and Permits	Jan Starts month SA ∆% -3.8; Permits ∆%: -0.2 Jan 2016/Jan 2015 NSA ∆% Starts 0.8; Permits  ∆% -6.3 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Rate of Homeownership	IVQ2015: 63.8 Blog 1/31/16
Trade Balance	Balance Dec SA -$43,357 million versus Nov -$42,226 million Exports Dec SA ∆%: -0.3 Imports Dec SA ∆%: 0.3 Goods Exports Jan-Dec 2015/Jan-Dec 2014 NSA ∆%: minus 7.1 Goods Imports Jan-Dec 2015/Jan-Dec 2014 NSA ∆%: minus 4.5 Blog 2/14/16
Export and Import Prices	Jan 12-month NSA ∆%: Imports -6.2; Exports -5.7 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Consumer Credit	Dec ∆% annual rate: Total 7.2; Revolving 7.5; Nonrevolving 7.1 Earlier Data: Blog 5/10/15
Net Foreign Purchases of Long-term Treasury Securities	Dec Net Foreign Purchases of Long-term US Securities: minus $43.4 billion Major Holders of Treasury Securities: China $1246.1 billion; Japan $1122.5 billion; Total Foreign US Treasury Holdings Nov $6165.8 billion Blog 2/21/16
Treasury Budget	Fiscal Year 2016/2015 ∆% Jan: Receipts 3.2; Outlays minus 0.1; Individual Income Taxes 3.5 Deficit Fiscal Year 2011 $1,300 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2012 $1,087 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2013 $680 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2014 $483 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2015 $439 billion Blog 2/14/2016
CBO Budget and Economic Outlook	2012 Deficit $1087 B 6.8% GDP Debt $11,281 B 70.4% GDP 2013 Deficit $680 B, 4.1% GDP Debt $11,983 B 72.3% GDP 2014 Deficit $483 B 2.8% GDP Debt $12,779 B 74.1% GDP 2025 Deficit $1,088B, 4.0% GDP Debt $21,605B 78.7% GDP 2040: Long-term Debt/GDP 103% Blog 8/26/12 11/18/12 2/10/13 9/22/13 2/16/14 8/24/14 9/14/14 3/1/15 6/21/15 1/3/16
Commercial Banks Assets and Liabilities	Jan 2016 SAAR ∆%: Securities 9.2 Loans 9.1 Cash Assets minus 14.3 Deposits 2.1 Blog 2/28/16
Flow of Funds Net Worth of Families and Nonprofits	IIIQ2015 ∆ since 2007 Assets +$18,633.0 BN Nonfinancial 2464.0 BN Real estate $1629.1 BN Financial +16,169.0 BN Net Worth +$18,659.5 BN Blog 1/3/16
Current Account Balance of Payments	IIIQ2015 -138,480 MM % GDP 2.7 Blog 1/3/16
Collapse of United States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation	Blog 2/21/16
IMF View	World Real Economic Growth 2015 ∆% 3.1 Blog 10/11/15
Income, Poverty and Health Insurance in the United States	46.657 Million Below Poverty in 2014, 14.8% of Population Median Family Income CPI-2014 Adjusted $53,657 in 2014 back to 1996 Levels Uncovered by Health Insurance 32.968 Million in 2014 Blog 10/11/15
Monetary Policy and Cyclical Valuation of Risk Financial Assets	Blog 1/17/2016

Links to blog comments in Table USA: 2/21/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html

2/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/subdued-foreign-growth-and-dollar.html

2/7/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/fluctuating-risk-financial-assets-in.html

1/31/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/closely-monitoring-global-economic-and.html

1/24/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/uncertainty-of-valuations-of-risk.html

1/17/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/unconventional-monetary-policy-and.html

1/3/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/weakening-equities-and-dollar.html

12/27/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/dollar-revaluation-and-decreasing.html

6/21/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/fluctuating-financial-asset-valuations.html

5/10/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/quite-high-equity-valuations-and.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html

9/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitics-monetary-policy-and.html

8/24/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/monetary-policy-world-inflation-waves.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

9/22/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

2/10/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/united-states-unsustainable-fiscal.html

VB Japan. The GDP of Japan grew at 1.0 percent per year on average from 1991 to 2002, with the GDP implicit deflator falling at 0.8 percent per year on average. The average growth rate of Japan’s GDP was 4 percent per year on average from the middle of the 1970s to 1992 (Ito 2004). Low growth in Japan in the 1990s is commonly labeled as “the lost decade” (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 81-115). Table VB-GDP provides yearly growth rates of Japan’s GDP from 1995 to 2014. Growth weakened from 1.9 per cent in 1995 and 2.6 percent in 1996 to contractions of 2.0 percent in 1998 and 0.2 percent in 1999. Growth rates were below 2 percent with exception of 2.3 percent in 2000, 2.4 percent in 2004 and 2.2 percent in 2007. Japan’s GDP contracted sharply by 1.0 percent in 2008 and 5.5 percent in 2009. As in most advanced economies, growth was robust at 4.7 percent in 2010 but mediocre at minus 0.5 percent in 2011 because of the tsunami and 1.7 percent in 2012. Japan’s GDP grew 1.7 percent in 2013 and stagnated in 2014 at 0.0. The GDP of Japan increased 0.4 percent in 2015. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). Japan’s real GDP in calendar year 2015 is 0.9 percent higher than in calendar year 2007 (http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html).

Table VB-GDP, Japan, Yearly Percentage Change of GDP  ∆%

Calendar Year	∆%
1995	1.9
1996	2.6
1997	1.6
1998	-2.0
1999	-0.2
2000	2.3
2001	0.4
2002	0.3
2003	1.7
2004	2.4
2005	1.3
2006	1.7
2007	2.2
2008	-1.0
2009	-5.5
2010	4.7
2011	-0.5
2012	1.7
2013	1.4
2014	0.0
2015	0.4

Source: Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html

Table VB-BOJF provides the forecasts of economic activity and inflation in Japan by the majority of members of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, which is part of their Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf) with changes on Jul 21, 2015 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k150121a.pdf). For fiscal 2015, the forecast is of growth of GDP between 1.5 to 2.1 percent, with the all items CPI less fresh food 0.2 to 1.2 to 3.3 percent (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf). The critical difference is forecast of the CPI excluding fresh food of 0.2 to 1.2 percent in 2015 and 1.2 to 2.2 percent in 2016 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf). Consumer price inflation in Japan excluding fresh food was minus 0.4 percent in Mar 2014 and 2.2 percent in 12 months (http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1581.htm), significantly because of the increase of the tax on value added of consumption in Apr 2014. The new monetary policy of the Bank of Japan aims to increase inflation to 2 percent. These forecasts are biannual in Apr and Oct. The Cabinet Office, Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan released on Jan 22, 2013, a “Joint Statement of the Government and the Bank of Japan on Overcoming Deflation and Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130122c.pdf) with the important change of increasing the inflation target of monetary policy from 1 percent to 2 percent:

“The Bank of Japan conducts monetary policy based on the principle that the policy shall be aimed at achieving price stability, thereby contributing to the sound development of the national economy, and is responsible for maintaining financial system stability. The Bank aims to achieve price stability on a sustainable basis, given that there are various factors that affect prices in the short run.

The Bank recognizes that the inflation rate consistent with price stability on a sustainable basis will rise as efforts by a wide range of entities toward strengthening competitiveness and growth potential of Japan's economy make progress. Based on this recognition, the Bank sets the price stability target at 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index.

Under the price stability target specified above, the Bank will pursue monetary easing and aim to achieve this target at the earliest possible time. Taking into consideration that it will take considerable time before the effects of monetary policy permeate the economy, the Bank will ascertain whether there is any significant risk to the sustainability of economic growth, including from the accumulation of financial imbalances.”

The Bank of Japan also provided explicit analysis of its view on price stability in a “Background note regarding the Bank’s thinking on price stability” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/data/rel130123a1.pdf http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130123a.htm/). The Bank of Japan also amended “Principal terms and conditions for the Asset Purchase Program” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130122a.pdf): “Asset purchases and loan provision shall be conducted up to the maximum outstanding amounts by the end of 2013. From January 2014, the Bank shall purchase financial assets and provide loans every month, the amount of which shall be determined pursuant to the relevant rules of the Bank.”

Financial markets in Japan and worldwide were shocked by new bold measures of “quantitative and qualitative monetary easing” by the Bank of Japan (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The objective of policy is to “achieve the price stability target of 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) at the earliest possible time, with a time horizon of about two years” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The main elements of the new policy are as follows:

1. Monetary Base Control. Most central banks in the world pursue interest rates instead of monetary aggregates, injecting bank reserves to lower interest rates to desired levels. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has shifted back to monetary aggregates, conducting money market operations with the objective of increasing base money, or monetary liabilities of the government, at the annual rate of 60 to 70 trillion yen. The BOJ estimates base money outstanding at “138 trillion yen at end-2012) and plans to increase it to “200 trillion yen at end-2012 and 270 trillion yen at end 2014” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
2. Maturity Extension of Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds. Purchases of bonds will be extended even up to bonds with maturity of 40 years with the guideline of extending the average maturity of BOJ bond purchases from three to seven years. The BOJ estimates the current average maturity of Japanese government bonds (JGB) at around seven years. The BOJ plans to purchase about 7.5 trillion yen per month (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130404d.pdf). Takashi Nakamichi, Tatsuo Ito and Phred Dvorak, wiring on “Bank of Japan mounts bid for revival,” on Apr 4, 2013, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323646604578401633067110420.html), find that the limit of maturities of three years on purchases of JGBs was designed to avoid views that the BOJ would finance uncontrolled government deficits.
3. Seigniorage. The BOJ is pursuing coordination with the government that will take measures to establish “sustainable fiscal structure with a view to ensuring the credibility of fiscal management” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
4. Diversification of Asset Purchases. The BOJ will engage in transactions of exchange traded funds (ETF) and real estate investment trusts (REITS) and not solely on purchases of JGBs. Purchases of ETFs will be at an annual rate of increase of one trillion yen and purchases of REITS at 30 billion yen.
5. Bank Lending Facility and Growth Supporting Funding Facility. At the meeting on Feb 18, the Bank of Japan doubled the scale of these lending facilities to prevent their expiration in the near future (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140218a.pdf).

Table VB-BOJF provides the forecasts of economic activity and inflation in Japan by the majority of members of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, which is part of their Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1510b.pdf) with changes on Jan 29, 2016 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1601b.pdf). On Jun 19, 2015, the Bank of Japan announced a “New Framework for Monetary Policy Meetings,” which provides for quarterly release of the forecasts of the economy and prices beginning in Jan 2016 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/rel150619a.pdf). For fiscal 2015, the forecast is of growth of GDP between 1.0 to 1.3 percent, with the all items CPI less fresh food 0.0 to 0.2 percent (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1601b.pdf). The critical difference is forecast of the CPI excluding fresh food of 0.2 to 1.6 percent in 2016 and 2.0 to 3.1 percent in 2017 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1601b.pdf). Consumer price inflation in Japan excluding fresh food was minus 0.2 percent in Dec 2015 and 0.1 percent in 12 months (http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1581.htm), significantly because of the increase of the tax on value added of consumption in Apr 2014. The new monetary policy of the Bank of Japan aims to increase inflation to 2 percent. These forecasts are biannual in Apr and Oct. The Cabinet Office, Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan released on Jan 22, 2013, a “Joint Statement of the Government and the Bank of Japan on Overcoming Deflation and Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130122c.pdf) with the important change of increasing the inflation target of monetary policy from 1 percent to 2 percent:

“The Bank of Japan conducts monetary policy based on the principle that the policy shall be aimed at achieving price stability, thereby contributing to the sound development of the national economy, and is responsible for maintaining financial system stability. The Bank aims to achieve price stability on a sustainable basis, given that there are various factors that affect prices in the short run.

The Bank recognizes that the inflation rate consistent with price stability on a sustainable basis will rise as efforts by a wide range of entities toward strengthening competitiveness and growth potential of Japan's economy make progress. Based on this recognition, the Bank sets the price stability target at 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index.

Under the price stability target specified above, the Bank will pursue monetary easing and aim to achieve this target at the earliest possible time. Taking into consideration that it will take considerable time before the effects of monetary policy permeate the economy, the Bank will ascertain whether there is any significant risk to the sustainability of economic growth, including from the accumulation of financial imbalances.”

The Bank of Japan also provided explicit analysis of its view on price stability in a “Background note regarding the Bank’s thinking on price stability” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/data/rel130123a1.pdf http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130123a.htm/). The Bank of Japan also amended “Principal terms and conditions for the Asset Purchase Program” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130122a.pdf): “Asset purchases and loan provision shall be conducted up to the maximum outstanding amounts by the end of 2013. From January 2014, the Bank shall purchase financial assets and provide loans every month, the amount of which shall be determined pursuant to the relevant rules of the Bank.”

Financial markets in Japan and worldwide were shocked by new bold measures of “quantitative and qualitative monetary easing” by the Bank of Japan (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The objective of policy is to “achieve the price stability target of 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) at the earliest possible time, with a time horizon of about two years” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The main elements of the new policy are as follows:

1. Monetary Base Control. Most central banks in the world pursue interest rates instead of monetary aggregates, injecting bank reserves to lower interest rates to desired levels. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has shifted back to monetary aggregates, conducting money market operations with the objective of increasing base money, or monetary liabilities of the government, at the annual rate of 60 to 70 trillion yen. The BOJ estimates base money outstanding at “138 trillion yen at end-2012) and plans to increase it to “200 trillion yen at end-2012 and 270 trillion yen at end 2014” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
2. Maturity Extension of Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds. Purchases of bonds will be extended even up to bonds with maturity of 40 years with the guideline of extending the average maturity of BOJ bond purchases from three to seven years. The BOJ estimates the current average maturity of Japanese government bonds (JGB) at around seven years. The BOJ plans to purchase about 7.5 trillion yen per month (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130404d.pdf). Takashi Nakamichi, Tatsuo Ito and Phred Dvorak, wiring on “Bank of Japan mounts bid for revival,” on Apr 4, 2013, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323646604578401633067110420.html), find that the limit of maturities of three years on purchases of JGBs was designed to avoid views that the BOJ would finance uncontrolled government deficits.
3. Seigniorage. The BOJ is pursuing coordination with the government that will take measures to establish “sustainable fiscal structure with a view to ensuring the credibility of fiscal management” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
4. Diversification of Asset Purchases. The BOJ will engage in transactions of exchange traded funds (ETF) and real estate investment trusts (REITS) and not solely on purchases of JGBs. Purchases of ETFs will be at an annual rate of increase of one trillion yen and purchases of REITS at 30 billion yen.
5. Bank Lending Facility and Growth Supporting Funding Facility. At the meeting on Feb 18, the Bank of Japan doubled the scale of these lending facilities to prevent their expiration in the near future (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140218a.pdf).
6. Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Negative Nominal Interest Rate. On January 29, 2016, the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan introduced a new policy to attain the “price stability target of 2 percent at the earliest possible time” (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2016/k160129a.pdf). The new framework consists of three dimensions: quantity, quality and interest rate. The interest rate dimension consists of rates paid to current accounts that financial institutions hold at the Bank of Japan of three tiers zero, positive and minus 0.1 percent. The quantitative dimension consists of increasing the monetary base at the annual rate of 80 trillion yen. The qualitative dimension consists of purchases by the Bank of Japan of Japanese government bonds (JGBs), exchange traded funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITS).

Table VB-BOJF, Bank of Japan, Forecasts of the Majority of Members of the Policy Board, % Year on Year

Fiscal Year Date of Forecast	Real GDP	CPI All Items Less Fresh Food	Excluding Effects of Consumption Tax Hikes
2013
Apr 2014	+2.2 to +2.3 [+2.2]	+0.8
Jan 2014	+2.5 to +2.9 [+2.7]	+0.7 to +0.9 [+0.7]
Oct 2013	+2.6 to +3.0 [+2.7]	+0.6 to +1.0 [+0.7]
Jul 2013	+2.5 to +3.0 [+2.8]	+0.5 to +0.8 [+0.6]
2014
Apr 2015	-1.0 to -0.8 [-0.9]	+2.8	+0.8
Jan 2015	-0.6 to -0.4 [-0.5]	+2.9 to +3.2 [+2.9]	+0.9 to +1.2 [+0.9]
Oct 2014	+0.2 to +0.7 [+0.5]	+3.1 to +3.4 [+3.2]	+1.1 to +1.4 [+1.2]
Jul 2014	+0.6 to +1.3 [+1.0]	+3.2 to +3.5 [+3.3]	+1.2 to +1.5 [+1.3]
Apr 2014	+0.8 to +1.3 [+1.1]	+3.0 to +3.5 [+3.3]	+1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3]
Jan 2014	+0.9 to 1.5 [+1.4]	+2.9 to +3.6 [+3.3]	+0.9 to +1.6 [+1.3]
Oct 2013	+0.9 to +1.5 [+1.5]	+2.8 to +3.6 [+3.3]	+0.8 to +1.6 [+1.3]
Jul 2013	+0.8 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+2.7 to +3.6 [+3.3]	+0.7 to +1.6 [+1.3]
2015
Jan 2016	+1.0 to +1.3 [+1.1]	0.0 to 0.2 [+0.1]
Oct 2015	+0.8 to +1.4 [+1.2]	0.0 to +0.4 [+0.1
Jul 2015	+1.5 to +1.9 [+1.7]	+0.3 to +1.0 [+0.7]
Apr 2015	+1.5 to +2.1 [+2.0]	+0.2 to 1.2 [+0.8]	+0.2 to 1.2 [+0.8]
Jan 2015	+1.8 to +2.3 [+2.1]	+0.4 to +1.3 [+1.0]	+0.4 to +1.3 [+1.0]
Oct 2014	+1.2 to +1.7 [+1.5]	+1.8 to 2.6 [+2.4]	+1.1 to +1.9 [+1.7]
Jul 2014	+1.2 to +1.6 [+1.5]	+1.9 to +2.8 [+2.6]	+1.2 to +2.1 [+1.9]
Apr 2014	+1.2 to +1.5 [+1.5]	+1.9 to +2.8 [+2.6]	+1.2 to +2.1 [+1.9]
Jan 2014	+1.2 to +1.8 [+1.5]	+1.7 to +2.9 [+2.6]	+1.0 to +2.2 [+1.9]
Oct 2013	+1.3 to +1.8 [+1.5]	+1.6 to +2.9 [+2.6]	+0.9 to +2.2 [+1.9]
Jul 2013	+1.3 to +1.9 [+1.5]	+1.6 to +2.9 [+2.6]	+0.9 to +2.2 [+1.9]
2016
Jan 2016	+1.0 to +1.7 [+1.5]	0.2 to 1.2 [+0.8]
Oct 2015	+1.2 to +1.6 [+1.4]	+0.8 to +1.5 [+1.4]
Jul 2015	+1.5 to 1.7 [+1.5]	+1.2 to +2.1 [+1.9]
Apr 2015	+1.4 to +1.8 [+1.5]	+1.2 to +2.2 [+2.0]	+1.2 to +2.2 [+2.0]
Jan 2015	+1.5 to +1.7 [+1.6]	+1.5 to +2.3 [+2.2]	+1.5 to +2.3 [+2.2]
Oct 2014	+1.0 to +1.4 [+1.2]	+1.9 to 3.0 [+2.8]	+1.2 to 2.3 [+2.1]
Jul 2014	+1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+2.0 to +3.0 [+2.8]	+1.3 to +2.3 [+2.1]
Apr 2014	+1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+2.0 to +3.0 [+2.8]	+1.3 to +2.3 [+2.1]
2017
Jan 2016	+0.1 to + 0.5 [+0.3]	+2.0 to +3.1 [+2.8]	+ 1.0 to +2.1 [+1.8]
Oct 2015	+0.1 to +0.5 [+0.3]	+2.5 to +3.4 [+3.1]	+1.2 to 2.1 [+1.8]
Jul 2015	+0.1 to +0.5 [+0.2]	+2.7 to +3.4 [+3.1]	+1.4 to +2.1 [+1.8]
Apr 2015	+0.1 to +0.5 [+0.2]	+2.7 to +3.4 [+3.2]	+1.4 to +2.1 [+1.9]

Figures in brackets are the median of forecasts of Policy Board members

Source: Policy Board, Bank of Japan

Figures in brackets are the median of forecasts of Policy Board members

Source: Policy Board, Bank of Japan

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k150121a.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140715a.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1510b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1601b.pdf

The Nikkei Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI Index™ with the Flash Japan

Manufacturing PMI™ decreased from 52.3 in Jan to 50.2 in Feb and the Flash Japan

Manufacturing Output Index™ decreased from 53.0 in Jan to 50.6 in Feb

(https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/2ba6ac5fa5fe4902a5fbc71aae2fe891). New export orders decreased, changing direction. Amy Brownbill, Economist at

Markit, finds slowing conditions in Japan’s manufacturing with sharp reduction of foreign orders

(https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/2ba6ac5fa5fe4902a5fbc71aae2fe891).The Nikkei Composite Output PMI Index increased from 52.2 in Dec to 52.6 in Jan, indicating increase of business activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/7a94887e31c648d682bf898dac2bf56d). The Nikkei Business Activity Index of Services increased to 52.4 in Jan from 51.5 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/7a94887e31c648d682bf898dac2bf56d). Amy Brownbill, Ecoomist at Markit and author of the report, finds improving outlook (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/7a94887e31c648d682bf898dac2bf56d). The Nikkei Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI™), seasonally adjusted, decreased from 52.6 in Dec to 52.3 in Jan (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/014c1abae6e040a5b7d6f9ba3863c3d8). New orders increased from home and abroad. Amy Brownbill, Economist at Markit, finds improving conditions in manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/014c1abae6e040a5b7d6f9ba3863c3d8).Table JPY provides the country data table for Japan.

Table JPY, Japan, Economic Indicators

Historical GDP and CPI	1981-2010 Real GDP Growth and CPI Inflation 1981-2010 Blog 8/9/11 Table 26
Corporate Goods Prices	Jan ∆% -0.9 12 months ∆% -3.1 Blog 2/14/16
Consumer Price Index	Jan NSA ∆% -0.4; Jan 12 months NSA ∆% 0.0 Blog 2/28/16
Real GDP Growth	IVQ2015 ∆%: -0.4 on IIIQ2015;  IVQ2015 SAAR minus 1,4; ∆% from quarter a year earlier: 0.5 % Blog 6/16/13 8/18/13 9/15/13 11/17/13 12/15/13 2/23/14 3/16/14 5/18/14 6/15/14 8/17/14 9/14/14 11/23/14 12/14/14 2/22/15 3/15/15 5/24/15 6/14/15 8/23/15 9/13/15 11/22/15 12/13/15 2/21/16
Employment Report	Dec Unemployed 2.04 million Change in unemployed since last year: -60 thousand Unemployment rate: 3.3 % Blog 1/31/16
All Industry Indices	Dec month SA ∆% -0.9 12-month NSA ∆% -0.5 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15
Industrial Production	Dec SA month ∆%: -1.4 Nov -0.9 Dec 12-month NSA ∆% -1.6 Nov 1.7 Earlier Data: Blog 3/29/15
Machine Orders	Total Dec ∆% 3.6 Private ∆%: 5.4 Dec ∆% Excluding Volatile Orders 4.2 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Tertiary Index	Dec month SA ∆% -0.6 Dec 12 months NSA ∆% 0.1 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15
Wholesale and Retail Sales	Dec 12 months: Total ∆%: -2.9 Wholesale ∆%: -3.7 Retail ∆%: -1.1 Earlier Data: Blog 3/29/15
Family Income and Expenditure Survey	Dec 12-month ∆% total nominal consumption -4.2, real -4.4 Earlier Data: Blog 3/29/15
Trade Balance	Exports Jan 12 months ∆%: minus 12.9 Imports Jan 12 months ∆% -18.0 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15

Links to blog comments in Table JPY: 2/21/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html

2/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/subdued-foreign-growth-and-dollar.html

1/31/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/closely-monitoring-global-economic-and.html

1/17/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/unconventional-monetary-policy-and.html

12/13/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/liftoff-of-interest-rates-with-volatile_17.html

11/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-liftoff-followed-by.html

9/13/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what_13.html

08/23/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/global-decline-of-values-of-financial.html

6/14/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/volatility-of-financial-asset.html

5/24/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/interest-rate-policy-and-dollar.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

3/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

2/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html

12/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/global-financial-and-economic-risk.html

11/23/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.htm

9/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitics-monetary-policy-and.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

6/15/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financialgeopolitical-risks-recovery.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html

2/23/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html

12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

VC China. China estimates an index of nonmanufacturing purchasing managers based on a sample of 1200 nonmanufacturing enterprises across the country (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Table CIPMNM provides this index and components. The total index increased from 55.7 in Jan 2011 to 58.0 in Mar 2012, decreasing to 53.9 in Aug 2013. The index decreased from 56.0 in Nov 2013 to 54.6 in Dec 2013, easing to 53.4 in Jan 2014. The index moved to 53.5 in Jan 2016. The index of new orders increased from 52.2 in Jan 2012 to 54.3 in Dec 2012 but fell to 50.1 in May 2013, barely above the neutral frontier of 50.0. The index of new orders stabilized at 51.0 in Nov-Dec 2013, easing to 50.9 in Jan 2014. The index of new orders moved to 49.6 in Jan 2016.

Table CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted

	Total Index	New Orders	Interm. Input Prices	Subs Prices	Exp
Jan 2016	53.5	49.6	49.9	47.7	58.4
Dec2015	54.4	51.7	49.0	48.2	58.3
Nov	53.6	50.2	49.3	47.7	60.0
Oct	53.1	51.2	51.2	48.8	61.1
Sep	53.4	50.2	50.8	47.9	60.0
Aug	53.4	49.6	49.6	47.8	59.7
Jul	53.9	50.1	48.9	47.4	60.0
Jun	53.8	51.3	50.6	48.7	59.7
May	53.2	49.5	52.8	50.4	60.1
Apr	53.4	49.1	50.8	48.9	60.0
Mar	53.7	50.3	50.0	48.4	58.8
Feb	53.9	51.2	52.5	51.2	58.7
Jan	53.7	50.2	47.6	46.9	59.6
Dec 2014	54.1	50.5	50.1	47.3	59.5
Nov	53.9	50.1	50.6	47.7	59.7
Oct	53.8	51.0	52.0	48.8	59.9
Sep	54.0	49.5	49.8	47.3	60.9
Aug	54.4	50.0	52.2	48.3	61.2
Jul	54.2	50.7	53.4	49.5	61.5
Jun	55.0	50.7	56.0	50.8	60.4
May	55.5	52.7	54.5	49.0	60.7
Apr	54.8	50.8	52.4	49.4	61.5
Mar	54.5	50.8	52.8	49.5	61.5
Feb	55.0	51.4	52.1	49.0	59.9
Jan	53.4	50.9	54.5	50.1	58.1
Dec 2013	54.6	51.0	56.9	52.0	58.7
Nov	56.0	51.0	54.8	49.5	61.3
Oct	56.3	51.6	56.1	51.4	60.5
Sep	55.4	53.4	56.7	50.6	60.1
Aug	53.9	50.9	57.1	51.2	62.9
Jul	54.1	50.3	58.2	52.4	63.9
Jun	53.9	50.3	55.0	50.6	61.8
May	54.3	50.1	54.4	50.7	62.9
Apr	54.5	50.9	51.1	47.6	62.5
Mar	55.6	52.0	55.3	50.0	62.4
Feb	54.5	51.8	56.2	51.1	62.7
Jan	56.2	53.7	58.2	50.9	61.4
Dec 2012	56.1	54.3	53.8	50.0	64.6
Nov	55.6	53.2	52.5	48.4	64.6
Oct	55.5	51.6	58.1	50.5	63.4
Sep	53.7	51.8	57.5	51.3	60.9
Aug	56.3	52.7	57.6	51.2	63.2
Jul	55.6	53.2	49.7	48.7	63.9
Jun	56.7	53.7	52.1	48.6	65.5
May	55.2	52.5	53.6	48.5	65.4
Apr	56.1	52.7	57.9	50.3	66.1
Mar	58.0	53.5	60.2	52.0	66.6
Feb	57.3	52.7	59.0	51.2	63.8
Jan	55.7	52.2	58.2	51.1	65.3

Notes: Interm.: Intermediate; Subs: Subscription; Exp: Business Expectations

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart CIPMNM provides China’s nonmanufacturing purchasing managers’ index. The index fell from 56.0 in Oct 2013 to 53.5 in Jan 2016.

Chart CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Table CIPMMFG provides the index of purchasing managers of manufacturing seasonally adjusted of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The general index (IPM) rose from 50.5 in Jan 2012 to 53.3 in Apr 2012, falling to 49.2 in Aug 2012, rebounding to 50.6 in Dec 2012. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013, barely above the neutral frontier at 50.0, recovering to 51.4 in Nov 2013 but falling to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.5 in Jan 2014, 50.1 in Dec 2014 and 49.4 in Jan 2016. The index of new orders fell from 54.5 in Apr 2012 to 51.2 in Dec 2012. The index of new orders fell from 52.3 in Nov 2013 to 52.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.9 in Jan 2014 and moved to 50.4 in Dec 2014. The index moved to 49.5 in Jan 2016.

Table CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted

	IPM	PI	NOI	INV	EMP	SDEL
2016
Jan	49.4	51.4	49.5	46.8	47.8	50.5
2015
Dec	49.7	52.2	50.2	47.6	47.4	50.7
Nov	49.6	51.9	49.8	47.1	47.6	50.6
Oct	49.8	52.2	50.3	47.2	47.8	50.6
Sep	49.8	52.3	50.2	47.5	47.9	50.8
Aug	49.7	51.7	49.7	48.3	47.9	50.6
Jul	50.0	52.4	49.9	48.4	48.0	50.4
Jun	50.2	52.9	50.1	48.7	48.1	50.3
May	50.2	52.9	50.6	48.2	48.2	50.9
Apr	50.1	52.6	50.2	48.2	48.0	50.4
Mar	50.1	52.1	50.2	48.0	48.4	50.1
Feb	49.9	51.4	50.4	48.2	47.8	49.9
Jan	49.8	51.7	50.2	47.3	47.9	50.2
2014
Dec	50.1	52.2	50.4	47.5	48.1	49.9
Nov	50.3	52.5	50.9	47.7	48.2	50.3
Oct	50.8	53.1	51.6	48.4	48.4	50.1
Sep	51.1	53.6	52.2	48.8	48.2	50.1
Aug	51.1	53.2	52.5	48.6	48.2	50.0
Jul	51.7	54.2	53.6	49.0	48.3	50.2
Jun	51.0	53.0	52.8	48.0	48.6	50.5
May	50.8	52.8	52.3	48.0	48.2	50.3
Apr	50.4	52.5	51.2	48.1	48.3	50.1
Mar	50.3	52.7	50.6	47.8	48.3	49.8
Feb	50.2	52.6	50.5	47.4	48.0	49.9
Jan	50.5	53.0	50.9	47.8	48.2	49.8
Dec 2013	51.0	53.9	52.0	47.6	48.7	50.5
Nov	51.4	54.5	52.3	47.8	49.6	50.6
Oct	51.4	54.4	52.5	48.6	49.2	50.8
Sep	51.1	52.9	52.8	48.5	49.1	50.8
Aug	51.0	52.6	52.4	48.0	49.3	50.4
Jul	50.3	52.4	50.6	47.6	49.1	50.1
Jun	50.1	52.0	50.4	47.4	48.7	50.3
May	50.8	53.3	51.8	47.6	48.8	50.8
Apr	50.6	52.6	51.7	47.5	49.0	50.8
Mar	50.9	52.7	52.3	47.5	49.8	51.1
Feb	50.1	51.2	50.1	49.5	47.6	48.3
Jan	50.4	51.3	51.6	50.1	47.8	50.0
Dec 2012	50.6	52.0	51.2	47.3	49.0	48.8
Nov	50.6	52.5	51.2	47.9	48.7	49.9
Oct	50.2	52.1	50.4	47.3	49.2	50.1
Sep	49.8	51.3	49.8	47.0	48.9	49.5
Aug	49.2	50.9	48.7	45.1	49.1	50.0
Jul	50.1	51.8	49.0	48.5	49.5	49.0
Jun	50.2	52.0	49.2	48.2	49.7	49.1
May	50.4	52.9	49.8	45.1	50.5	49.0
Apr	53.3	57.2	54.5	48.5	51.0	49.6
Mar	53.1	55.2	55.1	49.5	51.0	48.9
Feb	51.0	53.8	51.0	48.8	49.5	50.3
Jan	50.5	53.6	50.4	49.7	47.1	49.7

IPM: Index of Purchasing Managers; PI: Production Index; NOI: New Orders Index; EMP: Employed Person Index; SDEL: Supplier Delivery Time Index

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

China estimates the manufacturing index of purchasing managers on the basis of a sample of 820 enterprises (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Chart CIPMMFG provides the manufacturing index of purchasing managers. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013. The index decreased from 51.4 in Nov 2013 to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index moved to 49.4 in Jan 2016.

Chart CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Growth of China’s GDP in IVQ2015 relative to the same period in 2015 was 6.8 percent and cumulative growth to IVQ2015 was 6.9 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDP. Secondary industry accounts for 40.5 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2015. In cumulative IVQ2015, industry accounts for 33.8 percent of GDP and construction for 6.9 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 50.5 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2015 and primary industry for 9.0 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is shifting to lower growth rates with improvement in living standards by increasing growth of services. The bottom block of Table VC-GDP provides quarter-on-quarter growth rates of GDP and their annual equivalent. China’s GDP growth decelerated significantly from annual equivalent 10.4 percent in IQ2011 to 6.1 percent in IVQ2011 and 7.4 percent in IQ2012, rebounding to 8.7 percent in IIQ2012, 7.4 percent in IIIQ2012 and 8.2 percent in IVQ2012. Annual equivalent growth in IQ2013 eased to 7.4 percent and to 7.0 percent in IIQ2013, rebounding to 9.1 percent in IIIQ2013. Annual equivalent growth was 6.6 percent in IVQ2013, declining to 6.6 percent in IQ2014 and increasing to 7.4 percent in IIQ2014. Annual equivalent growth slowed to 7.4 percent in IIIQ2014 and 7.0 percent in IVQ2014. Growth slowed to annual equivalent 5.3 percent in IQ2015, increasing to 7.8 percent in IIQ2015 and 7.4 percent in IIIQ2015. Growth slowed to 6.6 percent in annual equivalent in IVQ2015.

Table VC-GDP China, Quarterly Growth of GDP, Current CNY 100 Million and Inflation Adjusted ∆%

Cumulative GDP IIQ2015	Value Current CNY Billion IIIQ2015	Value Current CNY Billion IQ2015 to IVQ2015	IIIQ2015 Year-on-Year Constant Prices ∆%	Cumulative to IVQ2015 ∆%
GDP	18,937.2	67,670.8	6.8	6.9
Primary Industry	2,196.5	6,086.3	4.1	3.9
Farming	2,270.8	6,291.1	4.2	4.0
Secondary Industry	7,640.5	27,427.8	6.1	6.0
Industry	6,158.7	22,897.4	5.8	5.9
Construction	1,512.9	4,645.6	7.3	6.8
Tertiary Industry	9,100.2	34,156.7	8.2	8.3
Transport, Storage, Post	809.9	3,036.4	4.6	4.6
Wholesale, Retail Trades	1,835.7	6,620.4	6.3	6.1
Accommodation and Restaurants	342.7	1,215.9	6.6	6.2
Finance	1,481.5	5,750.0	12.9	15.9
Real Estate	1,159.5	4,130.8	4.1	3.8
Other	3,365.5	13,0833	9.9	9.2
Growth in Quarter Relative to Prior Quarter	∆% on Prior Quarter		∆% Annual Equivalent	∆% Year-on-Year
2015
IVQ2015	1.6		6.6	6.8
IIIQ2015	1.8		7.4	6.9
IIQ2015	1.9		7.8	7.0
IQ2015	1.3		5.3	7.0
2014
IVQ2014	1.7		7.0	7.2
IIIQ2014	1.8		7.4	7.1
IIQ2014	1.8		7.4	7.4
IQ2014	1.6		6.6	7.3
2013
IVQ2013	1.6		6.6	7.6
IIIQ2013	2.2		9.1	7.9
IIQ2013	1.7		7.0	7.5
IQ2013	1.8		7.4	7.8
2012
IVQ2012	2.0		8.2	8.0
IIIQ2012	1.8		7.4	7.4
IIQ2012	2.1		8.7	7.5
IQ2012	1.8		7.4	8.0
2011
IVQ2011	1.5		6.1	8.7
IIIQ2011	1.9		7.8	9.4
IIQ2011	2.4		10.0	9.9
IQ2011	2.5		10.4	10.2

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Growth of China’s GDP in IVQ2015 relative to the same period in 2015 was 6.8 percent and cumulative growth to IVQ2015 was 6.9 percent. Secondary industry accounts for 40.5 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2015. In cumulative IVQ2015, industry accounts for 33.8 percent of GDP and construction for 6.9 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 50.5 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2015 and primary industry for 9.0 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is shifting to lower growth rates with improvement in living standards by increasing growth of services. Table GDPA shows that growth decelerated from 12.1 percent in IQ2010 and 11.2 percent in IIQ2010 to 7.8 percent in IQ2013, 7.5 percent in IIQ2013 and 7.9 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP grew 7.6 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 1.6 percent relative to IIIQ2013, which is equivalent to 6.6 percent per year. GDP grew 7.3 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.6 percent in IQ2014 that is equivalent to 6.6 percent per year. GP grew 7.4 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is annual equivalent 7.4 percent. In IIIQ2014, GDP grew 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is 7.4 percent in annual equivalent. GDP grew 1.7 percent in IVQ2014, which is 7.0 percent in annual equivalent and 7.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2015, GDP grew 1.3 percent, which is equivalent to 5.3 in a year and 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 1.9 percent in IIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.8 percent in a year, and grew 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.8 percent in IIIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.4 percent in a year, and grew 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.6 percent in IVQ2015, which is equivalent to 6.6 percent in a year and 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier.

Table VC-GDPA China, Growth Rate of GDP, ∆% Relative to a Year Earlier and ∆% Relative to Prior Quarter

	IQ2015	IIQQ2015	IIIQ2015	IVQ2015
GDP	7.0	7.0	6.9	6.8
Primary Industry	3.2	3.5	3.8	4.1
Secondary Industry	6.4	6.1	6.0	6.1
Tertiary Industry	7.9	8.4	8.4	8.2
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.3	1.9	1.8	1.6
	IQ 2013	IIQ 2013	IIIQ 2013	IVQ 2013	IQ 2014	IIQ 2014	IIIQ 2014	IVQ 2014
GDP	7.8	7.5	7.9	7.6	7.3	7.4	7.1	7.2
Primary Industry	3.4	3.0	3.4	4.0	3.5	3.9	4.2	4.1
Secondary Industry	7.8	7.6	7.8	7.8	7.3	7.4	7.4	7.3
Tertiary Industry	8.3	8.3	8.4	8.3	7.1	8.0	7.9	8.1
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.8	1.7	2.2	1.6	1.6	1.8	1.8	1.7
	IQ 2011	IIQ 2011	IIIQ 2011	IVQ 2011	IQ  2012	IIQ 2012	IIIQ 2012	IVQ 2012
GDP	10.2	9.9	9.4	8.7	8.0	7.5	7.4	8.0
Primary Industry	3.5	3.2	3.8	4.5	3.8	4.3	4.2	4.5
Secondary Industry	11.1	11.0	10.8	10.6	9.1	8.3	8.1	8.1
Tertiary Industry	9.1	9.2	9.0	8.9	7.5	7.7	7.9	8.1
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	2.5	2.4	1.9	1.5	1.8	2.1	1.8	2.0
	IQ 2010	IIQ 2010	IIIQ 2010	IVQ 2010
GDP	12.1	11.2	10.7	12.1
Primary Industry	3.8	3.6	4.0	3.8
Secondary Industry	14.5	13.3	12.6	14.5
Tertiary Industry	10.5	9.9	9.7	10.5

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart VC-GDP of the National Bureau of Statistics of China provides annual value and growth rates of GDP. China’s GDP growth in 2013 is still high at 7.7 percent but at the lowest rhythm in five years.

Chart VC-GDP, China, Gross Domestic Product, Million Yuan and ∆%, 2009-2013

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Chart VC-FXR provides China’s foreign exchange reserves. FX reserves grew from $2399.2 billion in 2009 to $3821.3 billion in 2013 driven by high growth of China’s trade surplus.

Chart VC-FXR, China, Foreign Exchange Reserves, 2009-2013

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Chart VC-Trade provides China’s imports and exports. Exports exceeded imports with resulting large trade balance surpluses that increased foreign exchange reserves.

Chart VC-Trade, China, Imports and Exports of Goods, 2009-2013, $100 Million US Dollars

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

The Caixin Flash China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) compiled by Markit (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/883014a121534f51bc42e5060845f727) is mixed. The overall Flash Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI^™ decreased from 47.3 in Aug to 47.0 in Sep, while the Flash Caixin China General Manufacturing Output Index decreased from 46.4 in Aug to 45.7 in Aug, indicating weaker conditions. He Fan, Chief Economist at Caixin Insight Group finds need of fiscal and monetary policy (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/883014a121534f51bc42e5060845f727). The Caixin China General Services PMI^™, compiled by Markit, shows the Caixin Composite Output, combining manufacturing and services, increasing from 49.4 in Dec to 50.1 in Jan (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/af1ce8d680084e6c9419d193cde229f2). He Fan, Chief Economist at Caixin Insight Group, finds improving services activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/af1ce8d680084e6c9419d193cde229f2). The Caixin General Manufacturing PMI^™ increased to 48.4 in Jan from 48.2 in Dec, indicating moderate deterioration in manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/09185002723a4f5c9f91d7f80462b11e). He Fan, Chief Economist at Caixin Insight Group, finds headwinds (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/09185002723a4f5c9f91d7f80462b11e). Table CNY provides the country data table for China.

Table CNY, China, Economic Indicators

Price Indexes for Industry	Jan 12-month ∆%: minus 5.3 Jan month ∆%: -0.5 Blog 2/21/16
Consumer Price Index	Jan 12-month ∆%: 1.8 Jan month ∆%: 0.5 Blog 2/21/16
Value Added of Industry	Dec month ∆%: 0.41 Jan-Dec 2015/Jan-Dec 2014 ∆%: 6.1 Earlier Data Blog 4/19/15
GDP Growth Rate	Year IVQ2015 ∆%: 6.9 Fourth Quarter 2015 ∆%: 1.6 Quarter IVQ2015 AE ∆%: 6.6 Blog 1/24/16
Investment in Fixed Assets	Total Jan-Dec 2015 ∆%: 10.0 Real estate development: 1.0 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Retail Sales	Dec month ∆%: 0.82 Jan-Dec 10.7 12 month ∆%: NA : 11.1 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Trade Balance	Jan balance $63.287billion Exports 12M ∆% -11.2 Imports 12M ∆% -18.8 2015 Exports ∆% -2.8 2015 Imports ∆% -14.1 Cumulative Jan 2016: $63.287billion Cumulative Jan 2015: $60.03 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15

Links to blog comments in Table CNY: 2/21/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html

1/24/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/uncertainty-of-valuations-of-risk.html

1/17/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/unconventional-monetary-policy-and.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

VD Euro Area. Using calendar and seasonally adjusted data (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of the euro area (18 countries) fell 5.7 percent from the high pre-recession date on IQ2008 to the trough in IIQ2009 while the GDP of the euro area (19 countries) fell 5.7 percent. The GDP of the euro area (19 countries) increased 5.8 percent from IIIQ2009 to IVQ2015 at the annual equivalent rate of 0.9 percent. The GDP of the euro area (19) countries in IVQ2015 is lower by 0.3 percent relative to the pre-recession peak in IQ2008. The GDP of the euro area (18) countries increased at the average yearly rate of 2.3 percent from IQ1999 to IQ2008 while that of the euro area (19 countries) increased at 2.3 percent. Table VD-EUR provides yearly growth rates of the combined GDP of the members of the European Monetary Union (EMU) or euro area since 1999. Growth was very strong at 3.2 percent in 2006 and 3.1 percent in 2007. The global recession had strong impact with growth of only 0.5 percent in 2008 and decline of 4.5 percent in 2009. Recovery was at lower growth rates of 2.1 percent in 2010 and 1.6 percent in 2011. EUROSTAT estimates growth of GDP of the euro area of minus 0.9 percent in 2012 and minus 0.9 percent in 2013. Euro Area GDP grew 0.9 percent in 2014.

Table VD-EUR, Euro Area, Yearly Percentage Change of Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, Unemployment and GDP ∆%

Year	HICP ∆%	Unemployment %	GDP ∆%
1999	1.2	9.7	3.0
2000	2.2	8.9	3.8
2001	2.4	8.3	2.1
2002	2.3	8.6	1.0
2003	2.1	9.1	0.7
2004	2.2	9.3	2.3
2005	2.2	9.1	1.7
2006	2.2	8.4	3.2
2007	2.2	7.5	3.1
2008	3.3	7.6	0.5
2009	0.3	9.6	-4.5
2010	1.6	10.2	2.1
2011	2.7	10.2	1.6
2012	2.5	11.4	-0.9
2013	1.3	12.0	-0.3
2014	0.4	11.6	0.9
2015	0.0	10.9

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

The GDP of the euro area in 2014 in current US dollars in the dataset of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is $13,457.0 billion or 17.4 percent of world GDP of $77,269.2 billion (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/02/weodata/index.aspx). The sum of the GDP of France $2833.7 billion with the GDP of Germany of $3874.4 billion, Italy of $2147.7 billion and Spain $1406.5 billion is $10,262.3 billion or 76.3 percent of total euro area GDP and 13.3 percent of World GDP. The four largest economies account for slightly more than three quarters of economic activity of the euro area. Table VD-EUR1 is constructed with the dataset of EUROSTAT, providing growth rates of the euro area as a whole and of the largest four economies of Germany, France, Italy and Spain annually from 1996 to 2014. The impact of the global recession on the overall euro area economy and on the four largest economies was quite strong. There was sharp contraction in 2009 and growth rates have not rebounded to earlier growth with exception of Germany in 2010 and 2011.

Table VD-EUR1, Euro Area, Real GDP Growth Rate, ∆%

	Euro Area	Germany	France	Italy	Spain
		1.7
2014	0.9	1.6	0.2	-0.4	1.4
2013	-0.3	0.3	0.7	-1.7	-1.7
2012	-0.9	0.4	0.2	-2.8	-2.6
2011	1.6	3.7	2.1	0.6	-1.0
2010	2.1	4.1	2.0	1.7	0.0
2009	-4.5	-5.6	-2.9	-5.5	-3.6
2008	0.5	1.1	0.2	-1.0	1.1
2007	3.1	3.3	2.4	1.5	3.8
2006	3.2	3.7	2.4	2.0	4.2
2005	1.7	0.7	1.6	0.9	3.7
2004	2.3	1.2	2.8	1.6	3.2
2003	0.7	-0.7	0.8	0.2	3.2
2002	1.0	0.0	1.1	0.3	2.9
2001	2.1	1.7	2.0	1.8	4.0
2000	3.8	3.0	3.9	3.7	5.3
1999	3.0	2.0	3.4	1.6	4.5
1998	2.9	2.0	3.6	1.6	4.3
Average 1999-2014	1.1	1.2	1.3	0.1	1.6
Average 1999-2007	2.2	1.6	2.1	1.5	3.8
1997	2.6	1.8	2.3	1.8	3.7
1996	1.7	0.8	1.4	1.3	2.7

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

The Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index of the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI^®, combining activity in manufacturing and services, decreased from 53.6 in Jan to 52.7 in Feb (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/7dd9ff37944e439c9322274083abb229). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds that the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI index suggests GDP quarterly growth below 0.3 percent in the beginning of 2016 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/7dd9ff37944e439c9322274083abb229). The Markit Eurozone PMI^® Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing activity with close association with GDP decreased from 54.3 in Dec to 53.6 in Jan (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/77432d4febf8431284502ffe264667e7). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds potential for growth of 0.4 percent in IQ2016 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/77432d4febf8431284502ffe264667e7). The Markit Eurozone Services Business Activity Index decreased from 54.2 in Dec to 53.6 in Jan (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/77432d4febf8431284502ffe264667e7). The Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI^® decreased from 53.2 in Dec to 52.3 in Jan (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/84f3ac0028354e3c84b67ef5d880ae0b). New export orders increased. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds industrial growth in the euro area at around 1.5 percent in early 2016 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/84f3ac0028354e3c84b67ef5d880ae0b). Table EUR provides the data table for the euro area.

Table EUR, Euro Area Economic Indicators

GDP	IVQ2015 ∆% 0.3; IVQ2015/IVQ2014 ∆% 1.5 Blog 9/13/15 11/22/15 12/13/15 2/14/16
Unemployment	Dec 2015: 10.5 % unemployment rate; Dec 2015: 16.924 million unemployed Blog 2/7/16
HICP	Jan month ∆%: -1.4 12 months Jan ∆%: 0.3 Blog 2/28/16
Producer Prices	Euro Zone industrial producer prices Dec ∆%: -0.8 Dec 12-month ∆%: -3.0 Blog 2/7/16
Industrial Production	Dec Month ∆%: -1.0; 12 months ∆%: -1.3 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Retail Sales	Dec month ∆%: 0.3 Dec 12 months ∆%: 1.4 Earlier Data: Blog 3/15/15
Confidence and Economic Sentiment Indicator	Sentiment 103.8 Feb 2016 Consumer minus 8.8 Feb 2016 Earlier Data: Blog 4/5/15
Trade	Jan-Dec 2015/Jan-Dec 2014 Exports ∆%: 5.3 Imports ∆%: 2.3 Dec 2015 12-month Exports ∆% 3.3 Imports ∆% 3.4 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15

Links to blog comments in Table EUR: 2/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/subdued-foreign-growth-and-dollar.html

2/7/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/fluctuating-risk-financial-assets-in.html

1/24/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/uncertainty-of-valuations-of-risk.html

12/13/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/liftoff-of-interest-rates-with-volatile_17.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

VE Germany. Table VE-DE provides yearly growth rates of the German economy from 1971 to 2015, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked. Germany’s GDP fell 5.6 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.1 percent in 2008. Recovery has been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.1 percent in 2010, 3.7 percent in 2011 and 0.4 percent in 2012. Growth decelerated to 0.3 percent in 2013, increasing to 1.6 percent in 2014. The German economy grew at 1.7 percent in 2015.

The Federal Statistical Agency of Germany analyzes the fall and recovery of the German economy (http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Content/Statistics/VolkswirtschaftlicheGesamtrechnungen/Inlandsprodukt/Aktuell,templateId=renderPrint.psml):

“The German economy again grew strongly in 2011. The price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.0% compared with the previous year. Accordingly, the catching-up process of the German economy continued during the second year after the economic crisis. In the course of 2011, the price-adjusted GDP again exceeded its pre-crisis level. The economic recovery occurred mainly in the first half of 2011. In 2009, Germany experienced the most serious post-war recession, when GDP suffered a historic decline of 5.1%. The year 2010 was characterised by a rapid economic recovery (+3.7%).”

Table VE-DE, Germany, GDP ∆% on Prior Year

	Price Adjusted Chain-Linked	Price- and Calendar-Adjusted Chain Linked
Average ∆% 1991-2015	1.3
Average ∆% 1991-1999	1.5
Average ∆% 2000-2007	1.4
Average ∆% 2003-2007	2.2
Average ∆% 2007-2015	0.9
Average ∆% 2009-2015	1.9
2015	1.7	1.4
2014	1.6	1.6
2013	0.3	0.4
2012	0.4	0.6
2011	3.7	3.7
2010	4.1	3.9
2009	-5.6	-5.6
2008	1.1	0.8
2007	3.3	3.4
2006	3.7	3.9
2005	0.7	0.9
2004	1.2	0.7
2003	-0.7	-0.7
2002	0.0	0.0
2001	1.7	1.8
2000	3.0	3.2
1999	2.0	1.9
1998	2.0	1.8
1997	1.8	1.9
1996	0.8	0.9
1995	1.7	1.8
1994	2.5	2.5
1993	-1.0	-1.0
1992	1.9	1.5
1991	5.1	5.2
1990	5.3	5.5
1989	3.9	4.0
1988	3.7	3.4
1987	1.4	1.3
1986	2.3	2.3
1985	2.3	2.6
1984	2.8	2.9
1983	1.6	1.5
1982	-0.4	-0.5
1981	0.5	0.6
1980	1.4	1.3
1979	4.2	4.3
1978	3.0	3.1
1977	3.3	3.5
1976	4.9	4.5
1975	-0.9	-0.9
1974	0.9	1.0
1973	4.8	5.0
1972	4.3	4.3
1971	3.1	3.0
1970	NA	NA

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/NationalAccounts.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/DomesticProduct/CurrentRevision.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Methods/NationalAccountRevision/Revision2014_BackgroundPaper.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/02/PE14_048_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/08/PE13_278_811.html https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/11/PE13_381_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/01/PE14_016_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/DE/PresseService/Presse/Pressekonferenzen/2014/BIP2013/Pressebroschuere_BIP2013.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/05/PE14_167_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/09/PE14_306_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/11/PE14_401_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_048_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_61_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/05/PE15_173_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/05/PE15_187_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/08/PE15_293_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/08/PE15_305_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/11/PE15_419_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/11/PE15_430_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/DomesticProduct/DomesticProduct.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/02/PE16_056_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/02/PE16_044_811.html

The Flash Germany Composite Output Index of the Markit Flash Germany PMI^®, combining manufacturing and services, decreased from 54.5 in Jan to 53.8 in Feb. The index of manufacturing output reached 51.4 in Feb, decreasing from 53.5 in Jan, while the index of services increased to 55.1 in Feb from 55.0 in Jan. The overall Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI^® decreased from 52.3 in Jan to 50.2 in Feb (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/94b312629f664eefa5aafed71eaa8dfa). New orders in manufacturing increased. Oliver Kolodseike, Economist at Markit, finds slowing growth of the private sector of Germany (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/94b312629f664eefa5aafed71eaa8dfa). The Markit Germany Composite Output Index of the Markit Germany Services PMI^®, combining manufacturing and services with close association with Germany’s GDP, decreased from 55.5 in Dec to 54.5 in Jan (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/1c8ea368a63d4eb3a393d4cbe56c9748). Oliver Kolodseike, Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds continuing growth of the private sector of Germany (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/1c8ea368a63d4eb3a393d4cbe56c9748). The Germany Services Business Activity Index decreased from 56.0 in Dec to 55.0 in Jan (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/1c8ea368a63d4eb3a393d4cbe56c9748). The Markit/BME Germany Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®), showing close association with Germany’s manufacturing conditions, decreased from 53.2 in Dec to 52.3 in

Jan (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/6c80d4cfd54a4972a3e87ad2ac092512). New export orders increased. Oliver Kolodseike, Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds improvement in manufacturing with weaker growth of exports (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/6c80d4cfd54a4972a3e87ad2ac092512) Table DE provides the country data table for Germany.

Table DE, Germany, Economic Indicators

GDP	IVQ2015 0.3 ∆%; IVQ2015/IVQ2014 ∆% 2.1 2015/2014: 1.7% GDP ∆% 1970-2015 Blog 8/26/12 5/27/12 11/25/12 2/24/13 5/19/13 5/26/13 8/18/13 8/25/13 11/17/13 11/24/13 1/26/14 2/16/14 3/2/14 5/18/14 5/25/14 8/17/14 9/7/14 11/16/14 11/30/14 2/15/15 3/1/15 5/17/15 5/24/15 8/16/15 8/30/15 11/22/15 11/29/15 2/14/16 2/28/16
Consumer Price Index	Jan month NSA ∆%: -0.8 Jan 12-month NSA ∆%: 0.5 Blog 2/14/16
Producer Price Index	Jan month ∆%: -0.7 NSA, minus 0.3 CSA 12-month NSA ∆%: -2.4 Blog 2/21/16
Industrial Production	MFG Dec month CSA ∆%: minus 1.1 12-month NSA: -0.2 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Machine Orders	MFG Dec month ∆%: -0.7 Dec 12-month ∆%: -1.0 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Retail Sales	Dec Month ∆% -0.2 Nov 0.4 12-Month Dec % 1.5 Nov 2.4 Earlier Data: Blog 4/5/15
Employment Report	Unemployment Rate SA Dec 4.5% Blog 2/7/16
Trade Balance	Exports Dec 12-month NSA ∆%: 3.2 Imports Dec 12 months NSA ∆%: 3.5 Exports Dec month CSA ∆%: -1.6; Imports Dec month CSA minus 1.6 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15

Links to blog comments in Table DE: 2/21/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html

2/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/subdued-foreign-growth-and-dollar.html

2/7/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/fluctuating-risk-financial-assets-in.html

1/24/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/uncertainty-of-valuations-of-risk.html

1/10/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/weakening-equities-with-exchange-rate.html

11/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/dollar-revaluation-constraining.html

11/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-liftoff-followed-by.html

11/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-policy-conundrum-recovery.html

11/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-increase-considered.html

08/30/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/fluctuations-of-global-financial.html

08/16/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/exchange-rate-and-financial-asset.html

5/24/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/interest-rate-policy-and-dollar.html

5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

9/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/competitive-monetary-policy-and.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

1/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/01/capital-flows-exchange-rates-and.html

11/24/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html

8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

Table VE-1 provides percentage change of Germany’s GDP in one quarter relative to the prior quarter from 1999 to 2015. Germany’s GDP contracted during four consecutive quarters from IIQ2008 to IQ2009. The deepest contraction was 4.5 percent in IQ2009. Growth was quite strong from IIIQ2009 to IQ2011 for cumulative growth of 8.1 percent in seven quarters or at the average rate of 1.1 percent per quarter, which is equivalent to 4.5 percent per year. Economic growth decelerated in IIQ2011 to 0.2 percent and 0.4 percent in IIIQ2011. The economy grew 0.0 percent in IVQ2011 and grew 0.4 percent in IQ2012 but at 0.1 percent in IIQ2012. GDP growth in IIIQ2012 was 0.2 percent relative to IIQ2012. Germany’s GDP contracted 0.5 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IIIQ2012. GDP decreased 0.3 percent in IQ2013 and increased 0.9 percent in IIQ2013. Growth of GDP was 0.4 percent in IIIQ2013 and 0.3 percent in IVQ2013. Germany’s growth was robust at 0.7 percent in IQ2014 or 2.8 percent in annual equivalent. GDP contracted 0.1 percent in IIQ2014. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2014. The GDP of Germany increased 0.6 percent in IVQ2014. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2015 and grew 0.3 percent in IVQ2015. Using seasonally and calendar adjusted data (https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/DomesticProduct/DomesticProduct.html), Germany’s GDP contracted 6.9 percent from IQ2008 to IQ2009. GDP grew 13.4 percent from IQ2009 to IVQ2015 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.9 percent. GDP grew 5.5 percent from IQ2008 to IVQ2015 at the annual equivalent rate of 0.7 percent. The Federal Statistical Office of Germany released estimates for IVQ2015 on Feb 23, 2016 (https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/02/PE16_056_811.html).

Table VE-1, Germany Quarter GDP ∆% Relative to Prior Quarter, Seasonally and Calendar Adjusted 

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IV
2015	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.3
2014	0.7	-0.1	0.2	0.6
2013	-0.3	0.9	0.4	0.3
2012	0.4	0.1	0.2	-0.5
2011	1.9	0.2	0.4	0.0
2010	0.8	2.0	0.8	0.8
2009	-4.5	0.1	0.6	0.9
2008	0.8	-0.3	-0.4	-2.0
2007	0.4	0.7	0.8	0.3
2006	1.0	1.6	1.0	1.3
2005	-0.2	0.7	0.8	0.3
2004	0.0	0.3	-0.2	0.1
2003	-1.2	0.0	0.5	0.4
2002	-0.4	0.2	0.5	-0.2
2001	1.7	0.1	-0.3	0.2
2000	1.0	1.0	-0.2	0.1
1999	0.9	0.1	1.1	1.2

Seasonal and calendar adjusted Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/02/PE16_056_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/DomesticProduct/DomesticProduct.html

Table VE-2 provides percentage changes of Germany’s GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Growth was weak in the recovery from the recession of 2001 through 2005, as in most of the euro area (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 116-46). Germany’s economy then grew robustly in 2006 and 2007 until the global recession after 2007. Germany recovered with strong growth in 2010 and vigorous 6.0 percent in IQ2011. The economy decelerated in the final three quarters of 2011, growing 1.5 percent in IQ2012 relative to IQ2011. Growth decelerated further to 0.3 percent in IIQ2012 without calendar adjustment and 0.8 percent with calendar adjustment and to 0.1 percent in IIIQ2012. Growth in IVQ2012 relative to IVQ2011 was minus 0.3 percent. GDP fell 1.7 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.0 percent in IIIQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 1.2 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 2.6 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.0 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.2 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.6 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.3 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.6 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.7 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 2.1 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier.

Table VE-2, Germany, Quarter GDP ∆% Relative to Same Quarter a Year Earlier, Price Adjusted NCSA 

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IV
2015	1.3	1.6	1.7	2.1
2014	2.6	1.0	1.2	1.6
2013	-1.7	0.7	1.0	1.2
2012	1.5	0.3	0.1	-0.3
2011	6.0	3.7	3.2	1.8
2010	2.6	4.7	4.6	4.4
2009	-6.6	-7.9	-5.6	-2.4
2008	2.1	3.1	1.1	-1.9
2007	4.3	3.4	3.3	2.1
2006	4.3	2.4	3.5	4.6
2005	-0.7	1.3	1.3	1.0
2004	1.6	1.6	0.6	0.9
2003	-0.4	-1.3	-0.8	-0.3
2002	-1.2	0.2	1.1	-0.1
2001	2.4	1.6	1.5	1.4
2000	4.4	4.0	2.6	1.0
1999	0.9	1.7	2.1	3.3

Price adjusted NSA Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/02/PE16_056_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/DomesticProduct/DomesticProduct.html

There are strong calendar effects in economic activity in Germany. Table VE-3 provides Germany’s percentage change in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier adjusting for price changes and calendar effects.

Table VE-3, Germany, Quarter GDP ∆% Relative to Same Quarter a Year Earlier, Calendar and Price Adjusted NSA 

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IV
2015	1.2	1.6	1.7	1.3
2014	2.4	1.4	1.1	1.4
2013	-0.5	0.3	0.5	1.3
2012	1.0	0.8	0.6	0.1
2011	5.7	3.6	3.3	2.3
2010	2.5	4.3	4.6	4.3

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/02/PE16_056_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/DomesticProduct/DomesticProduct.html

Table VE-4 provides yearly growth rates of the German economy from 1971 to 2015, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked. Germany’s GDP fell 5.6 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.1 percent in 2008. Recovery has been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.1 percent in 2010, 3.7 percent in 2011 and 0.4 percent in 2012. Growth decelerated to 0.3 percent in 2013, increasing to 1.6 percent in 2014. The German economy grew at 1.7 percent in 2015.

The Federal Statistical Agency of Germany analyzes the fall and recovery of the German economy (http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Content/Statistics/VolkswirtschaftlicheGesamtrechnungen/Inlandsprodukt/Aktuell,templateId=renderPrint.psml):

“The German economy again grew strongly in 2011. The price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.0% compared with the previous year. Accordingly, the catching-up process of the German economy continued during the second year after the economic crisis. In the course of 2011, the price-adjusted GDP again exceeded its pre-crisis level. The economic recovery occurred mainly in the first half of 2011. In 2009, Germany experienced the most serious post-war recession, when GDP suffered a historic decline of 5.1%. The year 2010 was characterised by a rapid economic recovery (+3.7%).”

Table VE-4, Germany, GDP ∆% on Prior Year

	Price Adjusted Chain-Linked	Price- and Calendar-Adjusted Chain Linked
Average ∆% 1991-2015	1.3
Average ∆% 1991-1999	1.5
Average ∆% 2000-2007	1.4
Average ∆% 2003-2007	2.2
Average ∆% 2007-2015	0.9
Average ∆% 2009-2015	1.9
2015	1.7	1.4
2014	1.6	1.6
2013	0.3	0.4
2012	0.4	0.6
2011	3.7	3.7
2010	4.1	3.9
2009	-5.6	-5.6
2008	1.1	0.8
2007	3.3	3.4
2006	3.7	3.9
2005	0.7	0.9
2004	1.2	0.7
2003	-0.7	-0.7
2002	0.0	0.0
2001	1.7	1.8
2000	3.0	3.2
1999	2.0	1.9
1998	2.0	1.8
1997	1.8	1.9
1996	0.8	0.9
1995	1.7	1.8
1994	2.5	2.5
1993	-1.0	-1.0
1992	1.9	1.5
1991	5.1	5.2
1990	5.3	5.5
1989	3.9	4.0
1988	3.7	3.4
1987	1.4	1.3
1986	2.3	2.3
1985	2.3	2.6
1984	2.8	2.9
1983	1.6	1.5
1982	-0.4	-0.5
1981	0.5	0.6
1980	1.4	1.3
1979	4.2	4.3
1978	3.0	3.1
1977	3.3	3.5
1976	4.9	4.5
1975	-0.9	-0.9
1974	0.9	1.0
1973	4.8	5.0
1972	4.3	4.3
1971	3.1	3.0
1970	NA	NA

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/NationalAccounts.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/DomesticProduct/CurrentRevision.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Methods/NationalAccountRevision/Revision2014_BackgroundPaper.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/02/PE14_048_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/08/PE13_278_811.html https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/11/PE13_381_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/01/PE14_016_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/DE/PresseService/Presse/Pressekonferenzen/2014/BIP2013/Pressebroschuere_BIP2013.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/05/PE14_167_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/09/PE14_306_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/11/PE14_401_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_048_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_61_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/05/PE15_173_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/05/PE15_187_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/08/PE15_293_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/08/PE15_305_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/11/PE15_419_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/11/PE15_430_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/DomesticProduct/DomesticProduct.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/02/PE16_056_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/02/PE16_044_811.html

Chart VE-1 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Federal Statistics Agency of Germany) provides GDP at current prices from 2007 to 2015. The German economy is productive with significant dynamism over the long term. There are fluctuations in an increasing trend since 2009. Growth is oscillating.

Chart VE-1, Germany, GDP, Current Prices, Billion Euro

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-1A provides US GDP in current prices at seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) from 2007 to 2015. There is sharp decline with the recession beginning in IVQ2007 and upward trend during the expansion after IIIQ2009.

Chart VE-1A, US, Gross Domestic Product, Current Prices, Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates, Billions of Dollars, 2006-2015

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis

http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm

Chart VE-2 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Federal Statistics Agency of Germany) provides the index of price-adjusted chain-linked GDP of Germany from 2011 to 2015. Germany was growing rapidly before the global contraction and rebounded with significant strength along a strong upward trend that could be increasing again.

Chart VE-2, Germany, Gross Domestic Product Price Adjusted, Trend and Trend Ends

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-2A provides US real GDP, seasonally adjusted at annual rates (SAAR) in billions of chained dollars of 2009 from 2011 to 2015.

Chart VE-2A, US, Real Gross Domestic Product, Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates, Billions of Chained 2009 Dollars, 2011-2015

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm

VF France. Table VF-FR provides growth rates of GDP of France with the estimates of Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE). The long-term rate of GDP growth of France from IVQ1949 to IVQ2015 is quite high at 3.2 percent. France’s growth rates were quite high in the four decades of the 1950s, 1960, 1970s and 1980s with an average growth rate of 4.0 percent compounding the average rates in the decades and discounting to one decade. The growth impulse diminished with 2.0 percent in the 1990s and 1.8 percent from 2000 to 2007. The average growth rate from 2000 to 2015, using fourth quarter data, is 1.0 percent because of the sharp impact of the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. Cobet and Wilson (2002) provide estimates of output per hour and unit labor costs in national currency and US dollars for the US, Japan and Germany from 1950 to 2000 (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 137-44). The average yearly rate of productivity change from 1950 to 2000 was 2.9 percent in the US, 6.3 percent for Japan and 4.7 percent for Germany while unit labor costs in USD increased at 2.6 percent in the US, 4.7 percent in Japan and 4.3 percent in Germany. From 1995 to 2000, output per hour increased at the average yearly rate of 4.6 percent in the US, 3.9 percent in Japan and 2.6 percent in Germany while unit labor costs in US fell at minus 0.7 percent in the US, 4.3 percent in Japan and 7.5 percent in Germany. There was increase in productivity growth in the G7 in Japan and France in the second half of the 1990s but significantly lower than the acceleration of 1.3 percentage points per year in the US. Lucas (2011May) compares growth of the G7 economies (US, UK, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Canada) and Spain, finding that catch-up growth with earlier rates for the US and UK stalled in the 1970s.

Table VF-FR, France, Average Growth Rates of GDP Fourth Quarter, 1949-2014

Period	Average ∆%
1949-2015	3.2
2007-2015*	0.4
2007-2014	0.3
2000-2015	1.0
2000-2014	1.0
2000-2007	1.8
1990-1999	2.0
1980-1989	2.6
1970-1979	3.7
1960-1969	5.7
1950-1959	4.2

*IVQ2007 to IVQ2015

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=26&date=20160226

The Markit Flash France Composite Output Index decreased from 50.2 in Jan to 49.8 in Feb (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/52919687895c4e5ba3cb39103c2a2764) Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds stagnant growth (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/52919687895c4e5ba3cb39103c2a2764). The Markit France Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing with close association with French GDP, increased from 50.1 in Dec to 50.2 in Jan, indicating expansion at moderate pace (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/54a903c1c4a34928bf2e66bf482d62dd). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the France Services PMI^®, finds stagnating services (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/54a903c1c4a34928bf2e66bf482d62dd). The Markit France Services Activity index increased from 49.8 in Dec to 50.3 in Jan (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/54a903c1c4a34928bf2e66bf482d62dd). The Markit France Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^® decreased to 50.0 in Jan from 51.4 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/d59fb04352324a0cbecc7f6b98bef1b4). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the France Manufacturing PMI^®, finds stagnating manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/d59fb04352324a0cbecc7f6b98bef1b4). Table FR provides the country data table for France.

Table FR, France, Economic Indicators

CPI	Jan month ∆% -0.1 12 months ∆%: 1.0 2/21/16
PPI	Jan month ∆%: -0.8 Jan 12 months ∆%: -2.5 Blog 2/28/16
GDP Growth	IVQ2015/IIIQ2015 ∆%: 0.3 IVQ2015/IVQ2014 ∆%: 1.4 Blog 3/31/13 5/19/12 6/30/13 9/29/13 11/17/13 12/29/13 2/16/14 4/6/14 5/18/14 6/29/14 8/17/14 9/28/14 11/16/14 12/28/14 2/15/15 3/29/15 5/17/15 6/28/15 8/16/15 9/27/15 11/15/15 12/27/15 1/31/16 2/28/16
Industrial Production	Dec ∆%: Manufacturing -0.8 12-Month ∆%: 1.7 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Consumer Spending	Manufactured Goods Jan ∆%: -0.3 Jan 12-Month Manufactured Goods ∆%: 1.3 Earlier Data: Blog 4/5/15
Employment	Unemployment Rate: IIIQ2015 10.2% Blog 12/6/15
Trade Balance	Dec Exports ∆%: month -0.9, 12 months 0.9 Imports ∆%: month -2.2, 12 months 1.3 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Confidence Indicators	Historical average 100 Feb Mfg Business Climate 103.0 Earlier Data: Blog 3/29/15

Links to blog comments in Table FR: 2/21/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html

1/31/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/closely-monitoring-global-economic-and.html

1/17/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/unconventional-monetary-policy-and.html

12/27/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/dollar-revaluation-and-decreasing.html

12/6/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/liftoff-of-fed-funds-rate-followed-by.html

11/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-policy-conundrum-recovery.html

9/27/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/monetary-policy-designed-on-measurable.html

9/6/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what.html

08/16/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/exchange-rate-and-financial-asset.html

6/28/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/international-valuations-of-financial.html

5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

9/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

12/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/collapse-of-united-states-dynamism-of.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

6/30/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/tapering-quantitative-easing-policy-and.html

5/19/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/word-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

Growth of GDP in a quarter relative to the prior quarter for France is in Table VF-1. GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 and increased 0.1 percent in IQ2013, rebounding with growth of 0.8 percent in IIQ2013. GDP fell 0.1 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2013. GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IQ2014. GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IIQ2014. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 0.1 in IVQ2014. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IQ2015 and changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2015. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2015. The French economy grew 0.3 percent in IVQ2011, 0.0 percent in IQ2012, contracting 0.3 percent in IIQ2012 and growing 0.3 percent in IIIQ2012. In the four quarters of 2012 and the first quarter of 2013, France’s GDP contracted in two quarter and stagnated in one quarter. Growth in the ten quarters of expansion from IIIQ2009 to IVQ2011 accumulated 4.5 percent at the annual equivalent rate of 1.8 percent. Recovery has been much weaker than the cumulative 2.5 percent in the four quarters of 2006. Weak recoveries in advanced economies have prevented full utilization of labor, capital and productive resources.

Table VF-1, France, Quarterly Real GDP Growth, Quarter on Prior Quarter ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IVQ
2015	0.7	0.0	0.3	0.3
2014	-0.2	-0.1	0.3	0.1
2013	0.1	0.8	-0.1	0.2
2012	0.0	-0.3	0.3	-0.1
2011	1.1	-0.1	0.2	0.3
2010	0.4	0.6	0.6	0.5
2009	-1.6	-0.1	0.1	0.7
2008	0.5	-0.6	-0.3	-1.6
2007	0.7	0.7	0.4	0.3
2006	0.6	1.1	0.0	0.8
2005	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.8
2004	0.6	0.8	0.4	0.7
2003	0.0	0.0	0.7	0.9
2002	0.6	0.6	0.3	-0.1
2001	0.7	0.0	0.3	-0.2
2000	1.2	0.7	0.6	0.8
1999	0.6	0.9	1.1	1.2

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=26&date=20160226

Growth rates of France’s real GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier are in Table VF-2. France has not recovered the rates of growth in excess of 2 percent prior to the global recession. GDP fell 4.0 percent in IQ2009, 3.5 percent in IIQ2009, 3.1 percent in IIIQ2009 and 0.8 percent in IVQ2009. Growth in IVQ2011 relative to IVQ2010 was 1.5 percent and GDP growth declined to 0.4 percent in IQ2012, 0.2 percent in IIQ2012 relative to the same quarter a year earlier, 0.3 percent in IIIQ2012 relative to a year earlier and 0.0 percent in IVQ2012 relative to a year earlier. Growth in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier was 0.1 percent. France’s GDP increased 1.1 percent in IIQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 0.8 percent in IIIQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.0 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and fell 0.2 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.0 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.9 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.1 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.1 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.4 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier.

Table VF-2, France, Real GDP Growth Current Quarter Relative to Same Quarter Year Earlier ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IVQ
2015	0.9	1.1	1.1	1.4
2014	0.7	-0.2	0.1	0.0
2013	0.1	1.1	0.8	1.0
2012	0.4	0.2	0.3	0.0
2011	2.9	2.2	1.8	1.5
2010	1.2	1.9	2.3	2.1
2009	-4.0	-3.5	-3.1	-0.8
2008	1.8	0.6	-0.1	-2.0
2007	2.5	2.1	2.5	2.1
2006	2.2	3.1	2.5	2.5
2005	1.9	1.4	1.5	1.6
2004	2.2	3.0	2.7	2.5
2003	0.8	0.2	0.6	1.7
2002	0.7	1.3	1.2	1.3
2001	2.9	2.2	1.8	0.8
2000	4.5	4.3	3.8	3.5
1999	3.1	3.0	3.4	3.8

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=26&date=20160226

Chart VF-1 of the Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques provides France’s quarterly real GDP from IQ1949 to IVQ2015. France’s economy has grown dynamically over decades. Recovery from the global recession in 2008-2009 has flattened with marginal increase.

Chart VF-1, France, Quarterly Real GDP, Seasonally and Working Day Adjusted, IQ1949-IVQ2015

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=26&date=20160226

Percentage changes and contributions of segments of GDP in France are in Table VF-3. Internal demand added 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2015. Internal demand added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and added 0.4 percentage points to growth in IIIQ2015. Internal demand added 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.7 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.5 percentage points in IVQ2015.

Table VF-3, France, Contributions to GDP Growth, Calendar and Seasonally Adjusted, %

∆% from Prior Period	IQ 2015	IIQ 2015	IIIQ 2015	IVQ 2015	2014	2015
GDP	0.7	0.0	0.3	0.3	0.2	1.1
Imports	2.3	0.7	1.7	2.5	3.9	6.5
Household Consump.	0.7	0.0	0.5	-0.2	0.6	1.4
Govt. Consump.	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.5	1.5	1.6
GFCF	0.3	-0.1	0.1	0.7	-1.2	-0.2
General Government	0.0	-0.5	-0.4	1.0	-6.9	-3.1
Exports	1.7	2.2	-0.6	1.0	2.4	6.1
% Point Contribs.
Internal Demand ex Inventory Changes	0.5	0.1	0.4	0.2	0.5	1.1
Inventory Changes	0.4	-0.5	0.7	0.7	0.2	0.3
Net Foreign Trade	-0.2	0.4	-0.7	-0.5	-0.5	-0.3

Notes: Consump.: Consumption; Gvt.: Government; GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation; Contribus.: Contributions; OVHG: “annual growth rate carried over at the mid-year point.”

Source:  Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=26&date=20160226

Chart VF-2 of France’s Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques provides percentage point contributions to GDP growth. The economy was driven in IQ2013 by consumption with net trade and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) deducting from growth. Final consumption drove the economy in IIQ2013 together with contribution by net trade and capital formation. Gross fixed capital formation and net trade constrained the economy in IIIQ2013. Inventory changed deducted from growth in IVQ2013 with contributions by consumption and net trade. Inventory change contributed to growth in IQ2014 with deductions by consumption, GFCF and net foreign trade. Consumption contributed to growth in IIQ2014 with deductions by GFCF, inventory change and net trade. Consumption and inventory change drove the economy in IIIQ2014 with deductions by net trade and gross fixed capital formation. Consumption and net trade drove the economy in IVQ2014 with deductions by GFCF and inventory change. Consumption and inventory change drove the economy in IQ2015 with net trade deducting from growth. Net trade and consumption drove the economy in IIQ2015 with inventory change and GFCF deducting from growth. Consumption and inventory change drove the economy in IIIQ2015 with minor contribution by GFCF and significant deduction by net trade. Inventory change and GFCF drove the economy in IVQ2015 with deductions by consumption and net trade.

Chart VF-2, France, Percentage Point Contributions to GDP Growth

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=26&date=20160226

VG Italy. Table VG-IT provides revised percentage changes of GDP in Italy of quarter on prior quarter and quarter on same quarter a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2015, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2015 and 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2014 and fell 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 and fell 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.2 percent in IIQ2014 and declined 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy decreased 0.1 percent in IQ2014 and fell 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2013 and fell 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2013 and fell 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IIQ2013, continuing eight consecutive quarterly declines, and fell 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.8 percent in IQ2013 and declined 2.5 percent relative to IQ2012. GDP had been growing during six consecutive quarters but at very low rates from IQ2010 to IIQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell in eight consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IIQ2013 at increasingly higher rates of contraction from 0.5 percent in IIIQ2011 to 1.0 percent in IVQ2011, 1.0 percent in IQ2012, 0.7 percent in IIQ2012 and 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012. The pace of decline accelerated to minus 0.5 percent in IVQ2012 and minus 0.8 percent in IQ2013. GDP contracted cumulatively 5.1 percent in eight consecutive quarterly contractions from IIIQ2011 to IIQ2013 at the annual equivalent rate of minus 2.6 percent. The total contraction in the 13 quarters including IVQ2013, IQ2014, IIQ2014, IIIQ2014 and IVQ2014 accumulates to 5.7 percent. The yearly rate has fallen from 2.3 percent in IVQ2010 to minus 2.7 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.5 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.0 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.4 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 1.0 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.3 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and fell 0.3 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.4 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and fell 0.5 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.0 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of Italy in IIIQ2015 is lower by 8.9 percent relative to IQ2008. The fiscal adjustment of Italy is significantly more difficult with the economy not growing especially on the prospects of increasing government revenue. The strategy is for reforms to improve productivity, facilitating future fiscal consolidation.

Table VG-IT, Italy, GDP ∆%

	Quarter ∆% Relative to Preceding Quarter	Quarter ∆% Relative to Same Quarter Year Earlier
IVQ2015	0.1	1.0
IIIQ2015	0.2	0.8
IIQ2015	0.3	0.5
IQ2015	0.4	0.1
IVQ2014	-0.1	-0.5
IIIQ2014	-0.1	-0.4
IIQ2014	-0.2	-0.3
IQ2014	-0.1	-0.3
IVQ2013	-0.1	-1.0
IIIQ2013	0.0	-1.4
IIQ2013	-0.2	-2.0
IQ2013	-0.8	-2.5
IVQ2012	-0.5	-2.7
IIIQ2012	-0.5	-3.2
IIQ2012	-0.7	-3.2
IQ2012	-1.0	-2.4
IVQ2011	-1.0	-1.0
IIIQ2011	-0.5	0.4
IIQ2011	0.2	1.4
IQ2011	0.3	2.1
IVQ2010	0.4	2.3
IIIQ2010	0.5	1.8
IIQ2010	0.7	1.9
IQ2010	0.5	0.7
IVQ2009	-0.1	-3.5
IIIQ2009	0.4	-5.0
IIQ2009	-0.3	-6.6
IQ2009	-3.5	-6.9
IVQ2008	-1.6	-3.0
IIIQ2008	-1.3	-1.9
IIQ2008	-0.5	-0.2
IQ2008	0.5	0.5
IV2007	-0.4	0.1
IIIQ2007	0.3	1.7
IIQ2007	0.2	2.0
IQ2007	0.0	2.4

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/180150

The Markit/ADACI Business Activity Index decreased from 55.3 in Dec to 53.6 in Jan (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/f9ae50445bb74c36b09f9ef80c2cd0db). Phil Smith, Economist at Markit and author of the Italy Services PMI^®, finds expansion of private sector activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/f9ae50445bb74c36b09f9ef80c2cd0db). The Markit/ADACI Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®), decreased from 55.6 in Dec to 53.2 in Jan (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/b0d7b10ab90e4c3c845e6da1f6108bdb). New export orders continued to increase. Phil Smith, Economist at Markit and author of the Italian Manufacturing PMI^®, finds growth in manufacturing at slower pace (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/b0d7b10ab90e4c3c845e6da1f6108bdb). Table IT provides the country data table for Italy.

Table IT, Italy, Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index	Jan month ∆% -0.2 12 months ∆%: 0.3 2/28/16
Producer Price Index	Nov month ∆%: -0.6 Nov 12-month ∆%: -4.2 Blog 1/3/16
GDP Growth	IVQ2015/IIIQ2015 SA ∆%: 0.1 IVQ2015/IVQ2014 NSA ∆%:1.0 Blog 3/17/13 6/16/13 8/11/13 9/15/13 11/17/13 12/15/13 2/16/14 3/16/14 5/18/14 6/15/14 8/10/14 8/31/14 10/19/14 11/16/14 12/7/14 2/15/15 3/15/15 5/17/15 5/31/15 8/16/15 9/6/15 11/15/15 12/6/15 2/14/16
Labor Report	Dec 2015 Participation rate 63.8% Employment ratio 56.4% Unemployment rate 11.4% Youth Unemployment 37.9% Blog 2/7/16
Industrial Production	Dec month ∆%: -0.7 12 months CA ∆%: -1.0 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Retail Sales	Dec month ∆%: -0.1 Dec 12-month ∆%: 0.6 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15
Business Confidence	Mfg Feb 102.0, Jan 103.0 Construction Feb 119.3, Jan 114.6 Earlier Data: Blog 4/5/15
Trade Balance	Balance Dec SA €4585 million Exports Dec month SA ∆%: -2.2; Imports month ∆%: -3.5 Exports 12 months Dec NSA ∆%: 3.0 Imports 12 months NSA ∆%: 2.6 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15

Links to blog comments in Table IT: 2/14/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/subdued-foreign-growth-and-dollar.html

2/7/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/fluctuating-risk-financial-assets-in.html

1/17/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/unconventional-monetary-policy-and.html

1/3/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/weakening-equities-and-dollar.html

12/6/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/liftoff-of-fed-funds-rate-followed-by.html

11/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-policy-conundrum-recovery.html

11/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-increase-considered.html

9/6/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what.html

08/16/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/exchange-rate-and-financial-asset.html

5/31/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/dollar-revaluation-squeezing-corporate.html

5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

12/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/financial-risks-twenty-six-million.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

10/19/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/imf-view-squeeze-of-economic-activity.html

8/31/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitical-and-financial-risks.html

8/10/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/volatility-of-valuations-of-risk_10.html

6/15/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financialgeopolitical-risks-recovery.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

8/11/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/recovery-without-hiring-loss-of-full.html

6/16/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/recovery-without-hiring-seven-million.html

3/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

VH United Kingdom. Annual data in Table VH-UK show the strong impact of the global recession in the UK with decline of GDP of 4.2 percent in 2009 after dropping 0.5 percent in 2008. Recovery of 1.5 percent in 2010 is relatively low in comparison with annual growth rates in 2007 and earlier years. Growth was only 2.0 percent in 2011 and 1.2 percent in 2012. Growth increased to 2.2 percent in 2013 and 2.9 percent in 2014. Growth fell to 2.2 percent in 2015.  The bottom part of Table VH-UK provides average growth rates of UK GDP since 1948. The UK economy grew at 2.6 percent per year on average between 1948 and 2015, which is relatively high for an advanced economy. The growth rate of GDP between 2000 and 2007 is higher at 2.8 percent. Growth in the current cyclical expansion from 2010 to 2015 has been only at 2.1 percent as advanced economies struggle with weak internal demand and world trade. GDP in 2015 is higher by 7.3 percent relative to 2007 while it would have been 24.7 higher at trend of 2.8 percent as from 2000 to 2007.

Table VH-UK, UK, Gross Domestic Product, ∆%

	∆% on Prior Year
1998	3.4
1999	3.1
2000	3.8
2001	2.8
2002	2.5
2003	3.3
2004	2.5
2005	3.0
2006	2.7
2007	2.6
2008	-0.5
2009	-4.2
2010	1.5
2011	2.0
2012	1.2
2013	2.2
2014	2.9
2015	2.2
Average Growth Rates ∆% per Year
1948-2015	2.6
1950-1959	3.1
1960-1969	3.1
1970-1979	2.6
1980-1989	3.2
1990-1999	2.3
2000-2007	2.8
2007-2013*	2.1
2007-2014*	5.0
2007-2015	0.9
2000-2015	1.8

*Absolute change from 2007 to 2013 and 2007 to 2014

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/second-estimate-of-gdp/q4-2015/index.html

The Business Activity Index of the Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI^® increased from 55.5 in Dec to 55.6 in Jan (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/1f65039eb8064ed99bd6c82f7fdcb1e1). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds the combined indices consistent with the UK economy growing at around 0.6 percent in IQ2016 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/1f65039eb8064ed99bd6c82f7fdcb1e1). The Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®) increased to 52.9 in Jan from 52.1 in Dec (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/5b4e345e978d439e8d8ce3753dcf1135). New export orders decreased. Rob Dobson, Senior Economist at Markit that compiles the Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI^®, finds moderate improvement in manufacturing conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/5b4e345e978d439e8d8ce3753dcf1135). Table UK provides the economic indicators for the United Kingdom.

Table UK, UK Economic Indicators

CPI	Jan month ∆%: 0.1 Jan 12-month ∆%: 0.2 Blog 2/21/16
Output/Input Prices	Output Prices: Jan 12-month NSA ∆%: -1.0; excluding food, petroleum ∆%: 0.0 Input Prices: Jan 12-month NSA ∆%: -7.6 Excluding ∆%: -4.7 Blog 2/21/16
GDP Growth	IVQ2015 prior quarter ∆% 0.5; year earlier same quarter ∆%: 1.9 Blog 3/31/13 4/28/13 5/26/13 7/28/13 8/25/13 9/29/13 10/27/13 12/1/13 12/22/13 2/2/14 3/2/14 4/6/14 5/4/14 5/25/14 6/29/14 7/27/14 8/17/14 10/5/14 10/26/14 11/30/14 12/28/14 2/1/15 3/1/15 4/5/15 5/3/15 5/31/15 7/5/15 8/2/15 9/6/15 10/4/15 11/1/15 11/29/15 12/27/15 1/31/16 2/28/16
Industrial Production	Dec 2015/Dec 2014 ∆%: Production Industries 0.4; Manufacturing -1.7 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Retail Sales	Jan month ∆%: 2.3 Jan 12-month ∆%: 5.2 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15
Labor Market	Oct-Dec Unemployment Rate: 5.1% Blog 2/21/16 LMGDP 5/17/15
GDP and the Labor Market	IQ2015 Employment 104.8 IQ2008 =100 GDP IQ15=104.0 IQ2008=100 Blog 5/17/14
Trade Balance	Balance SA Dec minus ₤2709 million Exports Dec ∆%: -0.8; Oct-Dec ∆%: -2.9 Imports Dec ∆%: -3.6 Oct-Dec ∆%: -1.9 EARLIER DATA: Blog 4/12/15

Links to blog comments in Table UK: 2/21/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html

1/31/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/closely-monitoring-global-economic-and.html

1/24/16 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/uncertainty-of-valuations-of-risk.html

12/27/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/dollar-revaluation-and-decreasing.html

11/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/dollar-revaluation-constraining.html

11/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-increase-considered.html

10/4/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/10/labor-market-uncertainty-and-interest.html

9/6/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what.html

08/02/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/turbulence-of-valuations-of-financial.html

7/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/07/turbulence-of-financial-asset.html

5/31/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/dollar-revaluation-squeezing-corporate.html

5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html

5/3/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/dollar-devaluation-and-carry-trade.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html

12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

10/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/financial-oscillations-world-inflation.html

10/5/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/world-financial-turbulence-twenty-seven.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

7/27/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

5/4/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html

4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html

3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html

2/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

12/22/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html

12/1/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/exit-risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html

10/27/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/twenty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html

9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html

7/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html

5/26/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

4/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_28.html

03/31/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

Table VH-1 provides quarter on quarter chained value measures of GDP since 1998 in the second estimate for IVQ2015 (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/second-estimate-of-gdp/q4-2015/index.html). The UK Office for National Statistics provides revision of the national accounts in accordance with the European System of Accounts 2010 (ESA 2010) (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/quarterly-national-accounts/q2-2015/index.html). GDP grew 0.5 percent in IVQ2015 relative to IIIQ2014. Growth of 1.0 percent in IIIQ2012 interrupted three consecutive quarters of weakness in GDP growth. Most advanced economies are underperforming relative to the period before the global recession. The UK Office for National Statistics analyzes that the decline in the impulse of growth in the UK originated in weakness in markets in the UK and worldwide. The UK Office for National Statistics estimates that GDP in IVQ2015 is higher by 6.6 percent relative to the peak in IQ2008 (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/gva/gross-domestic-product--preliminary-estimate/q4-2015/index.html). UK GDP in chained value measures is ₤422,382 million in IQ2008 and ₤441,939 million in IVQ2014 or increase of 4.6 percent. Growth at trend of 2.8 percent per year would bring GDP to ₤508,931 million in IVQ2014. UK GDP in IVQ2014 at ₤441,939 million is lower by ₤66,992 million relative to trend at ₤508,931 million or lower by 13.2 percent compared with trend. The UK Office for National Statistics estimates the contraction of 6.1 percent from peak to trough (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/gva/gross-domestic-product--preliminary-estimate/q4-2015/index.html), which is roughly equal at 6.3 percent to compounding the quarterly rates except for rounding in Table VH-1 from IIQ2008 to IIQ2009. UK GDP is ₤422,382 million in IQ2008 declining 6.1 percent to ₤396,514 million in IIQ2009. GDP increased 13.6 percent from IIQ2009 to ₤450,485 million in IVQ2015 or at the annual equivalent rate of 2.1 percent. GDP increased 6.7 percent from IQ2008 to IVQ2015 or at the annual equivalent rate of 0.8 percent. Using the seasonally adjusted chained-value measures (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/second-estimate-of-gdp/q4-2015/index.html), GDP increased from ₤422,382 million in IQ2008 to ₤450,485 million in IVQ2015, or 6.7 percent at the annual equivalent rate of 0.8 percent. UK GDP in IVQ2015 at ₤450,485 million is lower by ₤72,696 million relative to trend at ₤523,181 million or lower by 13.9 percent compared with trend.

Table VH-1, UK, Percentage Change of GDP from Prior Quarter, Chained Value Measures ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IV
2015	0.4	0.6	0.4	0.5
2014	0.6	0.8	0.7	0.7
2013	0.7	0.6	0.9	0.6
2012	0.2	-0.2	1.0	-0.1
2011	0.7	0.3	0.8	0.2
2010	0.4	0.8	0.5	0.1
2009	-1.6	-0.2	0.2	0.4
2008	0.2	-0.6	-1.7	-2.3
2007	1.0	0.6	0.8	0.8
2006	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.6
2005	0.7	1.1	1.0	1.4
2004	0.7	0.5	0.2	0.5
2003	0.7	0.9	0.8	0.7
2002	0.4	0.8	1.0	0.9
2001	1.1	0.8	0.6	0.3
2000	1.1	0.7	0.4	0.3
1999	0.5	0.2	1.6	1.3
1998	0.6	0.7	0.7	1.0

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/second-estimate-of-gdp/q4-2015/index.html

There are four periods in growth of GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier in the UK in the years from 2000 to the present as shown in Table VH-2. (1) Growth rates were quite high from 2000 to 2007. (2) There were six consecutive quarters of contraction of GDP from IIIQ2008 to IVQ2009. Contractions relative to the quarter a year earlier were quite sharp with the highest of 4.2 percent in IVQ2008, 5.9 percent in IQ2009, 5.6 percent in IIQ2009 and 3.8 percent in IIIQ2009. (3) The economy bounced strongly with 1.7 percent in IIQ2010, 2.0 percent in IIIQ2010 and 1.8 percent in IVQ2010. (4) Recovery did not continue at rates comparable to those in 2000 to 2007 and even relative to those in the final three quarters of 2010. Growth relative to the same quarter a year earlier fell from 1.8 percent in IVQ2010 to 1.7 percent in IIQ2011, 2.0 percent in IIIQ2011, 2.1 percent in IVQ2011 but only 1.5 percent in IQ2012, increase of 1.0 percent in IIQ2012 relative to IIQ2011, increase of 1.2 percent in IIIQ2012 and 1.0 percent in IVQ2012. In IQ2012, UK GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, GDP fell 0.2 percent relative to IQ2012 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, GDP increased 1.0 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier. In IVQ2012, GDP fell 0.1 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Fiscal consolidation in an environment of weakening economic growth is much more challenging. Growth increased to 1.4 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 0.7 percent in IQ2013 relative to IVQ2012. In IIQ2013, GDP increased 0.6 percent and 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.9 percent in IIIQ2013 and 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IVQ2013 and 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, GDP increased 0.6 percent and 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2014 and 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIIQ2013 and 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, GDP increased 0.7 percent and 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2015 and increased 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier.

Table VH-2, UK, Percentage Change of GDP from Same Quarter a Year Earlier, Chained Value Measures ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IV
2015	2.6	2.4	2.1	1.9
2014	2.8	3.0	2.8	2.8
2013	1.4	2.2	2.1	2.8
2012	1.5	1.0	1.2	1.0
2011	2.1	1.7	2.0	2.1
2010	0.7	1.7	2.0	1.8
2009	-5.9	-5.6	-3.8	-1.3
2008	2.4	1.2	-1.2	-4.2
2007	2.0	2.3	2.9	3.1
2006	4.0	3.1	2.2	1.4
2005	1.9	2.5	3.3	4.3
2004	3.1	2.7	2.2	1.9
2003	3.4	3.5	3.3	3.2
2002	2.2	2.2	2.5	3.1
2001	2.6	2.6	2.9	2.9
2000	4.3	4.8	3.5	2.6
1999	2.9	2.4	3.4	3.7
1998	3.8	3.4	3.3	3.0

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/second-estimate-of-gdp/q4-2015/index.html

Table VH-3 provides annual percentage changes of gross value added and key components. Production fell 8.7 percent in 2009 and its most important component manufacturing fell 9.4 percent. Services fell 2.7 percent in 2009. Services grew in all years from 2010 to 2015 while manufacturing fell 1.4 percent in 2012 and 1.1 percent in 2013. Manufacturing resumed growth with 2.7 percent in 2014 followed by decline of 0.2 percent in 2015.

Table VH-3, UK, Gross Value Added by Components, ∆% on Prior Year

	TP	MFG	CONS	SERV	GVA BP	GVA EX
2012 Weights	149	103	59	786	1000	984
1998	1.1	0.3	1.5	4.6	3.6	3.6
1999	1.0	0.5	1.3	4.0	3.2	3.1
2000	1.9	2.3	0.9	4.7	3.9	4.4
2001	-1.7	-1.7	1.8	3.9	2.5	3.0
2002	-1.6	-2.4	5.7	2.8	2.2	2.4
2003	-0.6	-0.6	4.8	4.3	3.4	3.9
2004	0.7	1.8	5.3	2.4	2.3	2.8
2005	-0.7	-	-2.4	4.6	3.3	3.9
2006	0.6	2.1	0.8	3.3	2.6	3.0
2007	0.3	0.6	2.2	3.1	2.6	2.7
2008	-2.6	-2.8	-2.6	0.4	-0.2	-0.1
2009	-8.7	-9.4	-13.2	-2.7	-4.3	-4.2
2010	3.3	4.5	8.6	0.9	1.7	2.0
2011	-0.6	2.2	2.2	2.2	1.9	2.3
2012	-2.8	-1.4	-7.5	2.5	1.0	1.3
2013	-0.8	-1.1	1.6	2.8	2.2	2.4
2014	1.3	2.7	7.5	3.3	2.7	2.8
2015	1.0	-0.2	3.4	2.5	2.3	2.2

Note: TP: Total Production; MFG: Manufacturing; CONS: Construction; SERV: Services; GVA BP: Gross Value Added at Basic Prices; GVA EX: Gross Value Added excluding Oil and Gas

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/second-estimate-of-gdp/q4-2015/index.html

Percentage changes of gross value added and components in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier are in Table VH-4A. Gross value added increased 2.6 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier while services increased 3.0 percent. Manufacturing increased 1.2 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier. Gross value added grew 2.4 percent in IIQ2015 while services increased 2.5 percent. Manufacturing increased 0.0 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. Gross value added grew 2.2 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier while services grew 2.4 percent. Manufacturing fell 0.9 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. Gross value added grew 2.0 percent in IVQ2015 with growth of services of 2.2 percent and contraction of manufacturing of 1.0 percent.

Table VH-4A, UK, Gross Value Added by Components, ∆% on Same Quarter of Previous Year

	TP	MFG	CONS	SERV	GVA BP	GVA EX
2012 Weights	149	103	59	786	1000	984
1998 Q1	1.4	1.0	4.7	4.5	3.8	4.1
1998 Q2	1.9	1.1	0.1	4.4	3.6	3.4
1998 Q3	0.8	0.2	1.3	4.8	3.6	3.7
1998 Q4	0.2	-1.0	-	4.7	3.4	3.3
1999 Q1	-0.6	-1.5	-1.5	4.6	3.0	2.8
1999 Q2	-0.3	-0.9	1.4	3.7	2.7	2.6
1999 Q3	2.3	1.8	3.2	3.8	3.5	3.3
1999 Q4	2.9	2.8	2.1	4.1	3.7	3.7
2000 Q1	2.9	3.1	3.3	4.8	4.3	4.4
2000 Q2	3.2	3.4	2.1	5.4	4.7	5.1
2000 Q3	0.8	1.2	-1.9	5.0	3.7	4.3
2000 Q4	0.7	1.8	-	3.6	2.7	3.5
2001 Q1	0.1	0.8	-1.9	4.2	2.8	3.8
2001 Q2	-1.7	-1.6	1.6	4.1	2.6	3.2
2001 Q3	-1.7	-1.7	3.7	3.5	2.3	2.8
2001 Q4	-3.3	-4.2	3.8	3.7	2.2	2.4
2002 Q1	-2.6	-3.5	5.2	2.4	1.7	1.8
2002 Q2	-1.6	-2.7	3.4	2.5	1.8	1.8
2002 Q3	-1.5	-1.7	7.4	2.8	2.4	2.8
2002 Q4	-0.6	-1.6	6.9	3.4	3.0	3.1
2003 Q1	-1.4	-2.1	3.5	4.2	3.0	3.2
2003 Q2	-1.2	-0.7	5.5	4.4	3.3	4.1
2003 Q3	-0.5	-1.0	4.5	4.5	3.5	3.8
2003 Q4	0.5	1.5	5.7	4.4	3.7	4.4
2004 Q1	1.3	2.7	11.7	3.4	3.6	4.3
2004 Q2	2.0	2.8	6.8	2.6	2.7	3.0
2004 Q3	-0.4	0.7	3.5	2.1	1.7	2.2
2004 Q4	-0.3	1.1	-0.2	1.6	1.1	1.6
2005 Q1	-1.2	-0.8	-2.8	2.6	1.6	2.1
2005 Q2	-0.7	-	-1.7	3.8	2.7	3.2
2005 Q3	-0.3	0.9	-3.0	5.3	3.9	4.5
2005 Q4	-0.6	-0.3	-2.2	6.7	4.9	5.5
2006 Q1	1.1	1.6	-1.9	5.4	4.1	4.5
2006 Q2	-0.4	1.4	-0.6	4.1	3.0	3.6
2006 Q3	1.1	2.5	1.8	2.4	2.0	2.3
2006 Q4	0.8	3.0	3.9	1.4	1.4	1.7
2007 Q1	0.1	1.8	4.2	2.2	1.9	2.3
2007 Q2	0.6	0.9	3.0	2.8	2.4	2.5
2007 Q3	0.1	0.1	1.1	3.9	3.0	3.2
2007 Q4	0.4	-0.3	0.5	3.7	2.9	2.9
2008 Q1	-0.3	0.2	0.3	3.2	2.5	2.7
2008 Q2	-1.1	-1.4	-0.4	2.3	1.6	1.8
2008 Q3	-2.1	-2.6	-1.7	-0.8	-1.1	-1.0
2008 Q4	-6.9	-7.2	-8.7	-2.9	-3.9	-3.8
2009 Q1	-10.7	-12.4	-16.1	-3.7	-5.7	-5.7
2009 Q2	-9.9	-10.9	-16.2	-4.0	-5.8	-5.8
2009 Q3	-9.5	-9.9	-12.2	-2.1	-4.0	-3.8
2009 Q4	-4.4	-3.9	-7.8	-0.7	-1.7	-1.5
2010 Q1	2.0	2.7	1.5	-0.1	0.3	0.5
2010 Q2	2.8	4.3	11.2	0.9	1.7	2.0
2010 Q3	4.2	5.9	11.3	1.5	2.5	2.6
2010 Q4	4.1	5.1	10.6	1.6	2.5	2.7
2011 Q1	1.6	4.5	7.7	2.1	2.4	2.9
2011 Q2	-0.3	3.0	2.1	1.9	1.7	2.2
2011 Q3	-1.0	1.2	-1.2	2.3	1.6	2.2
2011 Q4	-2.5	-	0.7	2.5	1.7	2.1
2012 Q1	-2.5	-	-4.1	2.7	1.4	1.8
2012 Q2	-2.6	-2.0	-8.6	2.5	1.0	1.2
2012 Q3	-2.1	-1.1	-9.6	2.6	1.1	1.3
2012 Q4	-3.9	-2.5	-7.8	2.1	0.6	0.9
2013 Q1	-2.9	-3.2	-4.3	2.4	1.2	1.5
2013 Q2	-1.2	-1.1	0.7	3.0	2.2	2.4
2013 Q3	-0.8	-1.1	5.1	2.6	2.2	2.4
2013 Q4	1.7	1.0	5.1	3.3	3.1	3.2
2014 Q1	1.8	2.6	8.8	3.0	2.9	2.9
2014 Q2	1.4	2.7	7.3	3.2	2.7	2.8
2014 Q3	1.1	2.8	7.8	3.2	2.6	2.8
2014 Q4	0.9	2.7	6.2	3.6	2.7	2.8
2015 Q1	0.9	1.2	6.4	3.0	2.6	2.7
2015 Q2	1.3	-	5.5	2.5	2.4	2.3
2015 Q3	1.2	-0.9	1.4	2.4	2.2	2.0
2015 Q4	0.6	-1.0	0.4	2.2	2.0	1.8

Note: TP: Total Production; MFG: Manufacturing; CONS: Construction; SERV: Services; GVA BP: Gross Value Added at Basic Prices; GVA EX: Gross Value Added excluding Oil and Gas

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/second-estimate-of-gdp/q4-2015/index.html

Table VH-5 provides contributions to value added by expenditure components in a quarter relative to the prior quarter. Household final consumption expenditures contributed 0.5 percentage points in IQ2015 and 0.5 percentage points in IIQ2015. Household final consumption expenditures contributed 0.5 percentage points in IIIQ2015 and 0.4 percentage points in IVQ2015. Net trade deducted 1.2 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 1.7 percentage points in IIQ2015 and deducted 1.0 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.4 percentage points in IVQ2015. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) added 0.2 percentage points in IQ2015. GFCF added 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2015 and added 0.0 percentage points in IIIQ2015 and in IVQ2015.

Table VH-5, UK, Contribution to Quarter on Prior Quarter of Growth of Value Added by Expenditure Components, %

	IQ2015	IIQ2015	IIIQ2015	IVQ2015
HFC	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.4
NPISH	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
GOVT	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1
GCF	1.0	-1.9	0.9	0.3
GFCF	0.2	0.3	0.0	0.0
BI	0.2	0.1	0.1	-0.2
Exports	-0.1	0.9	-0.1	0.0
Less Imports	1.1	-0.8	0.9	0.4
Net Trade	-1.2	1.7	-1.0	-0.4

Components may not add because of rounding

HFC: Household Final Consumption; NPISH: NPISH Final Consumption; GOVT: General Government; GCF: Gross Capital Formation; GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation; BINV: Business Investment; EXP: Exports; IMP: Less Imports

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/second-estimate-of-gdp/q4-2015/index.html

Contributions of value added by expenditure components in a year relative to the prior year are in Table VH-6. Household final consumption added 1.6 percentage points in 2014 and 1.8 percentage points in 2015. Gross capital formation contributed 1.1 percentage points in 2014 and 0.6 percentage points in 2015. GFCF added 1.1 percentage points in 2014 and 0.7 percentage points in 2015. Net trade deducted 0.4 percentage points in 2014 and deducted 0.5 percentage points in 2015.

VH-6, UK, Contribution to Growth on Prior Year of Value Added by Expenditure Components, %

	2014	2015
HFC	1.6	1.8
NPISH	0.0	0.0
GOVT	0.5	0.3
GCF	1.1	0.6
GFCF	1.2	0.7
BINV	0.4	0.5
Exports	0.3	1.5
Less Imports	0.8	2.0
Net Trade	-0.4	-0.5

HFC: Household Final Consumption; NPISH: NPISH Final Consumption; GOVT: General Government; GCF: Gross Capital Formation; GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation; BINV: Business Investment; EXP: Exports; IMP: Less Imports

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/second-estimate-of-gdp/q4-2015/index.html

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016.