Liftoff of Fed Funds Rate Followed by Indefinite Accommodative Monetary Policy, Twenty Five Million Unemployed or Underemployed, Job Creation, Stagnating Real Wages, Rules, Discretionary Authorities and Slow Productivity Growth, World Cyclical Slow Growth and Global Recession Risk: Part IV

 

Liftoff of Fed Funds Rate Followed by Indefinite Accommodative Monetary Policy, Twenty Five Million Unemployed or Underemployed, Job Creation, Stagnating Real Wages, Rules, Discretionary Authorities and Slow Productivity Growth, World Cyclical Slow Growth and Global Recession Risk

Carlos M. Pelaez

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015

I Twenty Five Million Unemployed or Underemployed

IA1 Summary of the Employment Situation

IA2 Number of People in Job Stress

IA3 Long-term and Cyclical Comparison of Employment

IA4 Job Creation

IB Stagnating Real Wages

IIA Rules, Discretionary Authorities and Slow Productivity Growth

III World Financial Turbulence

IIIA Financial Risks

IIIE Appendix Euro Zone Survival Risk

IIIF Appendix on Sovereign Bond Valuation

IV Global Inflation

V World Economic Slowdown

VA United States

VB Japan

VC China

VD Euro Area

VE Germany

VF France

VG Italy

VH United Kingdom

VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets

VII Economic Indicators

VIII Interest Rates

IX Conclusion

References

Appendixes

Appendix I The Great Inflation

IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies

IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact

IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort

IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis

IIIGA Monetary Policy with Deficit Financing of Economic Growth

IIIGB Adjustment during the Debt Crisis of the 1980s

V World Economic Slowdown. Table I-1 is constructed with the database of the IMF (http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29) to show GDP in dollars in 2014 and the growth rate of real GDP of the world and selected regional countries from 2014 to 2017. The data illustrate the concept often repeated of “two-speed recovery” of the world economy from the recession of 2007 to 2009. The IMF has changed its forecast of the world economy to 3.4 percent in 2014 and 3.1 percent in 2015 but accelerating to 3.6 percent in 2016 and 3.8 percent in 2017. Slow-speed recovery occurs in the “major advanced economies” of the G7 that account for $35,542 billion of world output of $77,269 billion, or 46.0 percent, but are projected to grow at much lower rates than world output, 2.0 percent on average from 2014 to 2017 in contrast with 3.5 percent for the world as a whole. While the world would grow 14.6 percent in the four years from 2014 to 2017, the G7 as a whole would grow 8.1 percent. The difference in dollars of 2014 is high: growing by 14.6 percent would add around $11.3 trillion of output to the world economy, or roughly, two times the output of the economy of Japan of $4,602 billion but growing by 8.1 percent would add $6.3 trillion of output to the world, or about the output of Japan in 2014. The “two speed” concept is in reference to the growth of the 150 countries labeled as emerging and developing economies (EMDE) with joint output in 2014 of $30,296 billion, or 39.2 percent of world output. The EMDEs would grow cumulatively 19.5 percent or at the average yearly rate of 4.5 percent, contributing $5.9 trillion from 2014 to 2017 or the equivalent of somewhat less than the GDP of $10,357 billion of China in 2014. The final four countries in Table I-1 often referred as BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China), are large, rapidly growing emerging economies. Their combined output in 2014 adds to $16,616 billion, or 21.5 percent of world output, which is equivalent to 46.8 percent of the combined output of the major advanced economies of the G7.

Table I-1, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Real GDP Growth

	GDP USD 2014	Real GDP ∆% 2014	Real GDP ∆% 2015	Real GDP ∆% 2016	Real GDP ∆% 2017
World	77,269	3.4	3.1	3.6	3.8
G7	35,542	1.7	1.9	2.2	2.1
Canada	1,785	2.4	1.0	1.7	2.4
France	2,834	0.2	1.2	1.5	1.6
DE	3,874	1.6	1.5	1.6	1.5
Italy	2,148	-0.4	0.8	1.3	1.2
Japan	4,602	-0.1	0.6	1.0	0.4
UK	2,950	3.0	2.5	2.2	2.2
US	17,348	2.4	2.6	2.8	2.8
Euro Area	13,457	0.9	1.5	1.6	1.7
DE	3,874	1.6	1.5	1.6	1.5
France	2,834	0.2	1.2	1.5	1.6
Italy	2,148	-0.4	0.8	1.3	1.2
POT	230	0.9	1.6	1.5	1.4
Ireland	251	5.2	4.9	3.8	3.2
Greece	238	0.8	-2.3	-1.3	2.7
Spain	1,407	1.4	3.1	2.5	2.2
EMDE	30,296	4.6	4.0	4.5	5.1
Brazil	2,347	0.1	-3.0	-1.0	2.3
Russia	1,861	0.6	-3.8	-0.6	1.0
India	2,051	7.3	7.3	7.5	7.5
China	10,357	7.3	6.8	6.3	6.0

Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries); POT: Portugal

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook databank

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/02/weodata/index.aspx

Continuing high rates of unemployment in advanced economies constitute another characteristic of the database of the WEO (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/01/weodata/index.aspx ). Table I-2 is constructed with the WEO database to provide rates of unemployment from 2013 to 2017 for major countries and regions. In fact, unemployment rates for 2014 in Table I-2 are high for all countries: unusually high for countries with high rates most of the time and unusually high for countries with low rates most of the time. The rates of unemployment are particularly high in 2014 for the countries with sovereign debt difficulties in Europe: 13.9 percent for Portugal (POT), 11.3 percent for Ireland, 26.5 percent for Greece, 24.5 percent for Spain and 12.7 percent for Italy, which is lower but still high. The G7 rate of unemployment is 6.4 percent. Unemployment rates are not likely to decrease substantially if slow growth persists in advanced economies.

Table I-2, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Unemployment Rate as Percent of Labor Force

	% Labor Force 2013	% Labor Force 2014	% Labor Force 2015	% Labor Force 2016	% Labor Force 2017
World	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
G7	7.1	6.4	5.9	5.6	5.6
Canada	7.1	6.9	6.8	6.8	6.6
France	10.3	10.3	10.2	9.9	9.7
DE	5.2	5.0	4.7	4.7	4.7
Italy	12.2	12.7	12.2	11.9	11.6
Japan	4.0	3.6	3.5	3.5	3.6
UK	7.6	6.2	5.6	5.5	5.4
US	7.4	6.2	5.3	4.9	4.8
Euro Area	12.0	11.6	11.0	10.5	10.1
DE	5.2	5.0	4.7	4.7	4.7
France	10.3	10.3	10.2	9.9	9.7
Italy	12.2	12.7	12.2	11.9	11.6
POT	16.2	13.9	12.3	11.3	10.9
Ireland	13.0	11.3	9.6	8.5	7.7
Greece	27.5	26.5	26.8	27.1	25.7
Spain	26.1	24.5	21.8	19.9	18.7
EMDE	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
Brazil	5.4	4.8	6.6	8.6	8.9
Russia	5.5	5.2	6.0	6.5	6.0
India	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
China	4.1	4.1	4.1	4.1	4.1

Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries)

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/02/weodata/index.aspx

Table V-3 provides the latest available estimates of GDP for the regions and countries followed in this blog from IQ2012 to IIQ2015 available now for all countries. There are preliminary estimates for several countries for IIIQ2015. Growth is weak throughout most of the world.

· Japan. The GDP of Japan increased 1.0 percent in IQ2012, 4.3 percent at SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) and 3.5 percent relative to a year earlier but part of the jump could be the low level a year earlier because of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan is experiencing difficulties with the overvalued yen because of worldwide capital flight originating in zero interest rates with risk aversion in an environment of softer growth of world trade. Japan’s GDP fell 0.5 percent in IIQ2012 at the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of minus 2.1 percent, which is much lower than 4.3 percent in IQ2012. Growth of 3.5 percent in IIQ2012 in Japan relative to IIQ2011 has effects of the low level of output because of Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IIIQ2012 at the SAAR of minus 1.5 percent and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IVQ2012 at the SAAR of minus 0.6 percent and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan grew 1.3 percent in IQ2013 at the SAAR of 5.5 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2013 at the SAAR of 2.3 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP grew 0.6 percent in IIIQ2013 at the SAAR of 2.5 percent and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Japan’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent at the SAAR of minus 0.9 percent, increasing 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 1.2 percent in IQ2014 at the SAAR of 4.7 percent and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Japan’s GDP fell 2.0 percent at the SAAR of minus 7.7 percent and fell 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.3 percent in IIIQ2014 at the SAAR of minus 1.1 percent and fell 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, Japan’s GDP grew 0.3 percent, at the SAAR of 1.2 percent, decreasing 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 1.1 percent in IQ2015 at the SAAR of 4.6 percent and decreased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IIQ2015 at the SAAR of minus 0.7 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan contracted 0.2 percent in IIIQ2015 at the SAAR of minus 0.8 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier

· China. China’s GDP grew 1.8 percent in IQ2012, annualizing to 7.4 percent, and 8.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 2.1 percent in IIQ2012, which annualizes to 8.7 percent and 7.5 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 1.8 percent in IIIQ2012, which annualizes at 7.4 percent and 7.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, China grew at 2.0 percent, which annualizes at 8.2 percent, and 8.0 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, China grew at 1.8 percent, which annualizes at 7.4 percent and 7.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, China grew at 1.8 percent, which annualizes at 7.4 percent and 7.5 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 2.1 percent in IIIQ2013, which annualizes at 8.7 percent and 7.9 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 1.7 percent in IVQ2013, which annualized to 7.0 percent and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP grew 1.6 percent in IQ2014, which annualizes to 6.6 percent, and 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP grew 1.8 percent in IIQ2014, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and 7.4 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP grew 1.9 percent in IIIQ2014, which is equivalent to 7.8 percent in a year, and 7.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew 1.7 percent in IVQ2014, which annualizes at 7.0 percent, and 7.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 1.3 percent in IQ2015, which annualizes at 5.3 percent, and 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew 1.8 percent in IIQ2015, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and increased 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2015, China’s GDP grew at 1.8 percent, which annualizes at 7.4 percent and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. There is decennial change in leadership in China (http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/special/18cpcnc/index.htm). Growth rates of GDP of China in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier have been declining from 2011 to 2015.

· Euro Area. GDP fell 0.2 percent in the euro area in IQ2012 and decreased 0.4 in IQ2012 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP contracted 0.3 percent IIQ2012 and fell 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.1 percent and declined 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.4 percent relative to the prior quarter and fell 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, the GDP of the euro area fell 0.2 percent and decreased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2013, euro area GDP increased 0.2 percent and fell 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2013 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent and 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The euro area’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The euro area’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier

· Germany. The GDP of Germany increased 0.4 percent in IQ2012 and 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier but 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier when adjusted for calendar (CA) effects. In IIIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP contracted 0.5 percent in IVQ2012 and decreased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, Germany’s GDP decreased 0.3 percent and fell 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 0.9 percent and 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2013 and 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent and 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.7 percent in IQ2014 and 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Germany’s GDP contracted 0.1 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.3 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2015 and 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier

· United States. Growth of US GDP in IQ2012 was 0.7 percent, at SAAR of 2.7 percent and higher by 2.8 percent relative to IQ2011. US GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2012, 1.9 percent at SAAR and 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, US GDP grew 0.1 percent, 0.5 percent at SAAR and 2.4 percent relative to IIIQ2011. In IVQ2012, US GDP grew 0.0 percent, 0.1 percent at SAAR and 1.3 percent relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, US GDP grew at 1.9 percent SAAR, 0.5 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.1 percent relative to the same quarter in 2013. In IIQ2013, US GDP grew at 1.1 percent in SAAR, 0.3 percent relative to the prior quarter and 0.9 percent relative to IIQ2012. US GDP grew at 3.0 percent in SAAR in IIIQ2013, 0.7 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.5 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/dollar-revaluation-constraining.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-increase-considered.html). In IVQ2013, US GDP grew 0.9 percent at 3.8 percent SAAR and 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, US GDP decreased 0.2 percent, increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier and fell 0.9 percent at SAAR. In IIQ2014, US GDP increased 1.1 percent at 4.6 percent SAAR and increased 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP increased 1.1 percent in IIIQ2014 at 4.3 percent SAAR and increased 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, US GDP increased 0.5 percent at SAAR of 2.1 percent and increased 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2015 at SAAR of 0.6 percent and grew 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR 3.9 percent in IIQ2015, increasing 1.0 percent in the quarter and 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2015 at SAAR of 2.1 percent and grew 2.2 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier.

· United Kingdom. In IQ2012, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, GDP fell 0.2 percent relative to IQ2012 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, GDP increased 1.0 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier. In IVQ2012, GDP fell 0.1 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Fiscal consolidation in an environment of weakening economic growth is much more challenging. Growth increased to 1.4 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 0.7 percent in IQ2013 relative to IVQ2012. In IIQ2013, GDP increased 0.6 percent and 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.9 percent in IIIQ2013 and 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IVQ2013 and 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, GDP increased 0.6 percent and 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.9 percent in IIQ2014 and 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2013 and 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, GDP increased 0.8 percent and 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2015 and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier.

· Italy. Italy’s GDP fell in eight consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IIQ2013 at increasingly higher rates of contraction from 0.5 percent in IIIQ2011 to 1.0 percent in IVQ2011, 1.0 percent in IQ2012, 0.7 percent in IIQ2012 and 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012. The pace of decline accelerated to minus 0.5 percent in IVQ2012 and minus 0.8 percent in IQ2013. GDP contracted cumulatively 5.1 percent in eight consecutive quarterly contractions from IIIQ2011 to IIQ2013 at the annual equivalent rate of minus 2.6 percent. The total contraction in the 12 quarters including IQ2014, IIQ2014, IIIQ2014 and IVQ2014 accumulates to 5.6 percent. Italy’s GDP fell 1.0 percent in IQ2012 and declined 2.4 percent relative to IQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell 0.7 percent in IIQ2012 and declined 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, Italy’s GDP fell 0.5 percent and declined 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy contracted 0.5 percent in IVQ2012 and fell 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, Italy’s GDP contracted 0.8 percent and fell 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP contracted 0.2 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2013 and declined 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2013 and decreased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, Italy’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent and fell 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy fell 0.2 percent in IIQ2014 and declined 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2014, Italy’s GDP contracted 0.1 percent and fell 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ20214 and declined 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2015, Italy’s GDP increased 0.4 percent and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier.

· France. France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IQ2012 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.3 percent in IIQ2012 and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, France’s GDP increased 0.3 percent and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2012 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2013 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2013 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2013 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, France’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, France’s GDP contracted 0.1 percent and decreased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2015, France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier.

Table V-3, Percentage Changes of GDP Quarter on Prior Quarter and on Same Quarter Year Earlier, ∆%

	IQ2012/IVQ2011	IQ2012/IQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.7        SAAR: 2.7	2.8
Japan	QOQ: 1.0 SAAR: 4.3	3.5
China	1.8	8.0
Euro Area	-0.2	-0.4
Germany	0.4	1.5
France	0.0	0.4
Italy	-1.0	-2.4
United Kingdom	0.2	1.5
	IIQ2012/IQ2012	IIQ2012/IIQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.5         SAAR: 1.9	2.5
Japan	QOQ: -0.5 SAAR: -2.1	3.5
China	2.1	7.5
Euro Area	-0.3	-0.8
Germany	0.1	0.3 0.8 CA
France	-0.3	0.2
Italy	-0.7	-3.2
United Kingdom	-0.2	1.0
	IIIQ2012/ IIQ2012	IIIQ2012/ IIIQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.1  SAAR: 0.5	2.4
Japan	QOQ: –0.4 SAAR: –1.5	0.2
China	1.8	7.4
Euro Area	-0.1	-0.8
Germany	0.2	0.1
France	0.3	0.3
Italy	-0.5	-3.2
United Kingdom	1.0	1.2
	IVQ2012/IIIQ2012	IVQ2012/IVQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.0 SAAR: 0.1	1.3
Japan	QOQ: -0.2 SAAR: -0.6	0.0
China	2.0	8.0
Euro Area	-0.4	-1.0
Germany	-0.5	-0.3
France	0.0	0.0
Italy	-0.5	-2.7
United Kingdom	-0.1	1.0
	IQ2013/IVQ2012	IQ2013/IQ2012
United States	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 1.9	1.1
Japan	QOQ: 1.3 SAAR: 5.5	0.4
China	1.8	7.8
Euro Area	-0.2	-1.1
Germany	-0.3	-1.7
France	0.1	0.1
Italy	-0.8	-2.5
UK	0.7	1.4
	IIQ2013/IQ2013	IIQ2013/IIQ2012
United States	QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.1	0.9
Japan	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.3	1.4
China	1.8	7.5
Euro Area	0.4	-0.4
Germany	0.9	0.7
France	0.8	1.1
Italy	-0.2	-2.0
UK	0.6	2.2
	IIIQ2013/IIQ2013	III/Q2013/  IIIQ2012
USA	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 3.0	1.5
Japan	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.5	2.2
China	2.1	7.9
Euro Area	0.2	-0.1
Germany	0.4	1.0
France	-0.1	0.8
Italy	0.0	-1.4
UK	0.9	2.1
	IVQ2013/IIIQ2013	IVQ2013/IVQ2012
USA	QOQ: 0.9 SAAR: 3.8	2.5
Japan	QOQ: -0.2 SAAR: -0.9	2.3
China	1.7	7.6
Euro Area	0.2	0.6
Germany	0.3	1.2
France	0.2	1.0
Italy	0.0	-1.0
UK	0.6	2.8
	IQ2014/IVQ2013	IQ2014/IQ2013
USA	QOQ -0.2 SAAR -0.9	1.7
Japan	QOQ: 1.2 SAAR: 4.7	2.4
China	1.6	7.3
Euro Area	0.2	1.1
Germany	0.7	2.6
France	-0.2	0.7
Italy	-0.1	-0.3
UK	0.6	2.8
	IIQ2014/IQ2014	IIQ2014/IIQ2013
USA	QOQ 1.1 SAAR 4.6	2.6
Japan	QOQ: -2.0 SAAR: -7.7	-0.4
China	1.8	7.4
Euro Area	0.1	0.7
Germany	-0.1	1.0
France	-0.1	-0.2
Italy	-0.2	-0.3
UK	0.9	3.1
	IIIQ2014/IIQ2014	IIIQ2014/IIIQ2013
USA	QOQ: 1.1 SAAR: 4.3	2.9
Japan	QOQ: -0.3 SAAR: -1.1	-1.4
China	1.9	7.2
Euro Area	0.3	0.8
Germany	0.2	1.2
France	0.2	0.1
Italy	-0.1	-0.4
UK	0.6	2.9
	IVQ2014/IIIQ2014	IVQ2014/IVQ2013
USA	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.1	2.5
Japan	QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.2	-0.9
China	1.7	7.2
Euro Area	0.4	0.9
Germany	0.6	1.6
France	0.1	0.1
Italy	-0.1	-0.4
UK	0.8	3.0
	IQ2015/IVQ2014	IQ2015/IQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.2 SAAR: 0.6	2.9
Japan	QOQ: 1.1 SAAR: 4.6	-0.8
China	1.3	7.0
Euro Area	0.5	1.2
Germany	0.3	1.2
France	0.7	0.9
Italy	0.4	0.1
UK	0.4	2.7
	IIQ2015/IQ2015	IIQ2015/IIQ2014
USA	QOQ: 1.0 SAAR: 3.9	2.7
Japan	QOQ: -0.2 SAAR: -0.7	1.0
China	1.8	7.0
Euro Area	0.4	1.5
Germany	0.4	1.6
France	0.0	1.1
Italy	0.3	0.6
UK	0.7	2.4
	IIIQ2015/IIQ2015	IIIQ2015/IIIQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.1	2.2
Japan	QOQ: -0.2 SAAR: -0.8	1.0
China	1.8	6.9
Euro Area	0.3	1.6
Germany	0.3	1.8
France	0.3	1.2
Italy	0.2	0.8
UK	0.5	2.3

QOQ: Quarter relative to prior quarter; SAAR: seasonally adjusted annual rate

Source: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.census.gov/aboutus/stat_int.html

Table V-4 provides two types of data: growth of exports and imports in the latest available months and in the past 12 months; and contributions of net trade (exports less imports) to growth of real GDP.

• Japan. Japan provides the most worrisome data (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/global-decline-of-values-of-financial.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/07/valuation-of-risk-financial-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/fluctuating-financial-asset-valuations.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/dollar-revaluation-squeezing-corporate.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/patience-on-interest-rate-increases.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/monetary-policy-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/valuation-risks-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/interest-rate-risks-world-inflation.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/global-financial-risk-world-inflation.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations_8763.html http://cmpass ocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/paring-quantitative-easing-policy-and_4699.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/thirty-one-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/12/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_24.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/11/contraction-of-united-states-real_25.html and for GDP http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what_13.html). In Oct 2015, Japan’s exports decreased 2.1 percent in 12 months while imports decreased 13.4 percent. The second part of Table V-4 shows that net trade deducted 1.6 percentage points from Japan’s growth of GDP in IIQ2012, deducted 1.9 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2012 and deducted 0.5 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2012. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2012, 1.8 percentage points in IQ2013 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIQ2013. In IIIQ2013, net trade deducted 1.4 percentage points from GDP growth in Japan. Net trade ducted 2.0 percentage points from GDP growth in Japan in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 0.9 percentage points from GDP growth of Japan in IQ2014. Net trade added 3.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2014. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2014 and added 1.3 percentage points in IVQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2015 and deducted 0.8 percentage points in IIQ2015. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2015

• China. In Oct 2015, China exports decreased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier and imports decreased 18.8 percent.
• Germany. Germany’s exports increased 2.6 percent in the month of Sep 2015 and increased 4.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2015. Germany’s imports increased 3.6 percent in the month of Sep 2015 and increased 3.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to growth of GDP in IQ2012, contributed 0.4 percentage points in IIQ2012, contributed 0.3 percentage points in IIIQ2012, deducted 0.5 percentage points in IVQ2012, deducted 0.3 percentage points in IQ2013 and added 0.1 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded deducted 0.5 percentage points from Germany’s GDP growth in IIIQ2013 and added 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2014. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2014 and added 0.5 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 0.1 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2015
• United Kingdom. Net trade contributed 0.7 percentage points in IIQ2013. In IIIQ2013, net trade deducted 1.7 percentage points from UK growth. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to UK value added in IVQ2013. Net trade contributed 0.2 percentage points to UK value added in IQ2014 and 1.3 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2014 and added 0.2 percentage points in IVQ2014. Net traded deducted 0.6 percentage points from growth in IQ2015. Net trade added 1.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 1.5 percentage points in IIIQ2015
• France. France’s exports decreased 0.6 percent in Sep 2015 while imports increased 0.5 percent. France’s exports increased 1.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2015 and imports decreased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Net traded added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IIIQ2012 and 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IQ2013 and added 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2013, deducting 1.7 percentage points in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IVQ2013 and deducted 0.1 percentage points in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IIQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to France’s GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.7 percentage points in IIIQ2015
• United States. US exports increased 1.6 percent in Sep 2015 and goods exports decreased 6.0 percent in Jan-Sep 2015 relative to a year earlier. Imports decreased 1.8 percent in Sep 2015 and goods imports decreased 3.9 percent in Jan-Sep 2015 relative to a year earlier. Net trade added 0.28 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2012 and added 0.16 percentage points in IIIQ2012 and 0.58 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade deducted 0.01 percentage points from US GDP growth in IQ2013 and deducted 0.24 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded added 0.16 percentage points to US GDP growth in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 1.26 percentage points to US GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 1.39 percentage points from US GDP growth in IQ2014 and deducted 0.24 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade added 0.39 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.89 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 1.92 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.18 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.22 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2015. Industrial production decreased 0.2 percent in Oct 2015 and decreased 0.2 percent in Sep 2015, with all data seasonally adjusted. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System conducted the annual revision of industrial production released on Jul 21, 2015 (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/revisions/Current/DefaultRev.htm):

“The Federal Reserve has revised its index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization. Total IP is now reported to have increased slightly less than 2 1/2 percent per year, on average, from 2011 through 2013 before advancing about 4 1/2 percent in 2014 and falling back somewhat in the first half of 2015. Relative to earlier reports, the current rates of change are lower---especially for 2012 and 2013. For the most recent recession, total IP still shows a peak-to-trough decline of about 17 percent, and the dates for the peak and trough are unaltered. However, the lower rates of change for recent years indicate that the recovery in the industrial sector since the trough has been slower than reported earlier. Total IP is now estimated to have returned to its pre-recession peak in May 2014, seven months later than previously estimated.”

Manufacturing fell 22.2 from the peak in Jun 2007 to the trough in Apr 2009 and increased by 19.2 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Dec 2014. Manufacturing grew 23.4 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Oct 2015. The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IIIQ2015 would have accumulated to 25.7 percent. GDP in IIIQ2015 would be $18,844.7 billion (in constant dollars of 2009) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $2,450.5 billion than actual $16,394.2 billion. There are about two trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 24.3 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 14.6 percent of the effective labor force (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/live-possibility-of-interest-rates.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/10/labor-market-uncertainty-and-interest.html). US GDP in IIIQ2015 is 13.0 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $14,991.8 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $16,394.2 billion in IIIQ2015 or 9.4 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.2 percent. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 3.2 percent per year from Oct 1919 to Oct 2015. Growth at 3.2 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output from 107.6075 in Dec 2007 to 137.7209 in Oct 2015. The actual index NSA in Oct 2015 is 107.4128, which is 22.0 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 2.2 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2014. Using trend growth of 2.2 percent per year, the index would increase to 127.6069 in Oct 2015. The output of manufacturing at 107.4128 in Oct 2015 is 15.8 percent below trend under this alternative calculation.

Table V-4, Growth of Trade and Contributions of Net Trade to GDP Growth, ∆% and % Points

	Exports M ∆%	Exports 12 M ∆%	Imports M ∆%	Imports 12 M ∆%
USA	1.6 Sep	-6.0 Jan-Sep	-1.8 Aug	-3.9 Jan-Sep
Japan		Oct 2015 -2.1 Sep 2015 0.6 Aug 3.1 Jul 2015 7.6 Jun 2015 9.5 May 2015 2.4 Apr 8.0 Mar 8.5 Feb 2.4 Jan 17.0 Dec 12.9 Nov 4.9 Oct 9.6 Sep 6.9 Aug -1.3 Jul 3.9 Jun -2.0 May 2014 -2.7 Apr 2014 5.1 Mar 2014 1.8 Feb 2014 9.5 Jan 2014 9.5 Dec 2013 15.3 Nov 2013 18.4 Oct 2013 18.6 Sep 2013 11.5 Aug 2013 14.7 Jul 2013 12.2 Jun 2013 7.4 May 2013 10.1 Apr 2013 3.8 Mar 2013 1.1 Feb 2013 -2.9 Jan 2013 6.4 Dec -5.8 Nov -4.1 Oct -6.5 Sep -10.3 Aug -5.8 Jul -8.1		Oct 2015 -13.4 Sep 2015 -11.1 Aug -3.1 Jul 2015 -3.2 Jun 2015 -2.9 May 2015 -8.7 Apr -4.2 Mar -14.5 Feb -3.6 Jan -9.0 Dec 1.9 Nov -1.7 Oct 2.7 Sep 6.2 Aug -1.5 Jul 2.3 Jun 8.4 May 2014 -3.6 Apr 2013 3.4 Mar 2014 18.1 Feb 2014 9.0 Jan 2014 25.0 Dec 2013 24.7 Nov 2013 21.1 Oct 2013 26.1 Sep 2013 16.5 Aug 2013 16.0 Jul 2013 19.6 Jun 2013 11.8 May 2013 10.0 Apr 2013 9.4 Mar 2013 5.5 Feb 2013 7.3 Jan 2013 7.3 Dec 1.9 Nov 0.8 Oct -1.6 Sep 4.1 Aug -5.4 Jul 2.1
China		2015 -6.9 Oct -3.7 Sep -5.5 Aug -8.3 Jul 2.8 Jun -2.5 May -6.4 Apr -15.0 Mar 48.3 Feb -3.3 Jan 2014 9.7 Dec 4.7 Nov 11.6 Oct 15.3 Sep 9.4 Aug 14.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 7.0 May 0.9 Apr -6.6 Mar -18.1 Feb 10.6 Jan 2013 4.3 Dec 12.7 Nov 5.6 Oct -0.3 Sep 7.2 Aug 5.1 Jul -3.1 Jun 1.0 May 14.7 Apr 10.0 Mar 21.8 Feb 25.0 Jan		2015 -18.8 Oct -20.4 Sep -13.8 Aug -8.1 Jul -6.1 Jun -17.6 May -12.7 Mar -20.5 Feb -19.9 Jan 2014 -2.4 Dec -6.7 Nov 4.6 Oct 7.0 Sep -2.4 Aug -1.6 Jul 5.5 Jun -1.6 May -0.8 Apr -11.3 Mar 10.1 Feb 10.0 Jan 2013 8.3 Dec 5.3 Nov 7.6 Oct 7.4 Sep 7.0 Aug 10.9 Jul -0.7 Jun -0.3 May 16.8 Apr 14.1 Mar -15.2 Feb 28.8 Jan
Euro Area	0.9 12 M-Sep	6.1 Jan-Sep	-1.0 12-M Sep	2.1 Jan-Sep
Germany	2.6 Sep CSA	4.4 Sep	3.6 Sep CSA	3.9 Sep
France Sep	-0.6	1.2	0.5	-1.8
Italy Sep	1.6	1.4	1.1	0.7
UK	1.3 Sep	-0.5 Jul 15- Sep 15 /Jul 14-Sep 14	-2.2 Sep	-1.0 Jul 15-Sep 15 /Jul 14-Sep 14
Net Trade % Points GDP Growth	Points
USA	IIIQ2015 -0.22 IIQ2015 0.18 IQ2015 -1.92 IVQ2014 -0.89 IIIQ2014 0.39 IIQ2014 -0.24 IQ2014 -1.39 IVQ2013 1.26 IIIQ2013 0.16 IIQ2013 -0.24 IQ2013 -0.01 IVQ2012 +0.58 IIIQ2012 0.16 IIQ2012 0.28 IQ2012 -0.02
Japan	0.4 IQ2012 -1.6 IIQ2012 -1.9 IIIQ2012 -0.5 IVQ2012 1.8 IQ2013 -0.2 IIQ2013 -1.4 IIIQ2013 -2.0 IVQ2013 -0.9 IQ2014 3.7 IIQ2014 0.2 IIIQ2014 1.3 IVQ2014 -0.2 IQ2015 -0.8 IIQ2015 0.4 IIIQ2015
Germany	IQ2012 0.8 IIQ2012 0.4 IIIQ2012 0.3 IVQ2012 -0.5 IQ2013 -0.3 IIQ2013 0.1 IIIQ2013 -0.5 IVQ2013 0.5 IQ2014 0.0 IIQ2014 0.2 IIIQ2014 0.5 IVQ2014 -0.3 IQ2015 -0.1 IIQ2015 0.6 IIIQ2015 -0.4
France	0.1 IIIQ2012 0.1 IVQ2012 -0.1 IQ2013 0.3 IIQ2013 -1.7 IIIQ2013 0.1 IVQ2013 -0.1 IQ2014 -0.2 IIQ2014 -0.2 IIIQ2014 0.2 IVQ2014 -0.2 IQ2015 0.4 IIQ2015 -0.7 IIIQ2015
UK	0.7 IIQ2013 -1.7 IIIQ2013 0.1 IVQ2013 0.2 IQ2014 1.3 IIQ2014 -0.7 IIIQ2014 0.2 IVQ2014 -0.6 IQ2015 1.4 IIQ2015 -1.5 IIIQ2015

Sources: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/

The geographical breakdown of exports and imports of Japan with selected regions and countries is in Table V-5 for Oct 2015. The share of Asia in Japan’s trade is close to one-half for 53.0 percent of exports and 51.4 percent of imports. Within Asia, exports to China are 18.1 percent of total exports and imports from China 26.8 percent of total imports. While exports to China decreased 3.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2015, imports from China decreased 5.2 percent. The largest export market for Japan in Oct 2015 is the US with share of 20.6 percent of total exports, which is close to that of China, and share of imports from the US of 10.6 percent in total imports. Japan’s exports to the US increased 6.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2015 and imports from the US increased 1.0 percent. Western Europe has share of 11.1 percent in Japan’s exports and of 12.7 percent in imports. Rates of growth of exports of Japan in Oct 2015 are 6.3 percent for exports to the US, -16.7percent for exports to Brazil and minus 1.3 percent for exports to Germany. Comparisons relative to 2011 may have some bias because of the effects of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Deceleration of growth in China and the US and threat of recession in Europe can reduce world trade and economic activity. Growth rates of imports in the 12 months ending in Oct 2015 are mixed. Imports from Asia decreased 4.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2015 while imports from China decreased 5.2 percent. Data are in millions of yen, which may have effects of recent depreciation of the yen relative to the United States dollar (USD).

Table V-5, Japan, Value and 12-Month Percentage Changes of Exports and Imports by Regions and Countries, ∆% and Millions of Yen

Oct 2015	Exports Millions Yen	12 months ∆%	Imports Millions Yen	12 months ∆%
Total	6,543,960	-2.1	6,432,494	-13.4
Asia	3,467,635 % Total 53.0	-3.6	3,304,566 % Total 51.4	-4.7
China	1,184,568 % Total 18.1	-3.6	1,724,213 % Total 26.8	-5.2
USA	1,348,155 % Total 20.6	6.3	681,976 % Total 10.6	1.0
Canada	77,195	-1.1	93,026	-17.8
Brazil	34,022	-16.7	73,071	-23.3
Mexico	114,655	2.3	47,214	36.0
Western Europe	726,690 % Total 11.1	4.7	820,141 % Total 12.7	6.3
Germany	177,016	-1.3	204,785	-11.0
France	56,151	-3.1	118,905	10.1
UK	106,610	-0.7	93,194	62.6
Middle East	287,212	3.0	628,483	-51.5
Australia	127,926	6.4	310,386	-23.9

Source: Japan, Ministry of Finance http://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/info/index_e.htm

World trade projections of the IMF are in Table V-6. There is increasing growth of the volume of world trade of goods and services from 3.3 percent in 2014 to 4.1 percent in 2016 and 4.7 percent on average from 2017 to 2019. World trade would be slower for advanced economies while emerging and developing economies (EMDE) experience faster growth. World economic slowdown would be more challenging with lower growth of world trade.

Table I-10, IMF, Projections of World Trade, USD Billions, USD/Barrel and Annual ∆%

	2014	2015	2016	Average ∆% 2017-2019
World Trade Volume (Goods and Services)	3.3	3.2	4.1	4.7
Exports Goods & Services	3.2	3.4	3.9	4.6
Imports Goods & Services	3.5	3.0	4.3	4.8
Average Oil Price USD/Barrel	96.25	51.62	50.36	Average ∆% 2007-2016 82.03
Average Annual ∆% Export Unit Value of Manufactures	-0.6	-4.1	-0.7	Average ∆% 2007-2016 0.8
Exports of Goods & Services	2014	2015	2016	Average ∆% 2007-2016
EMDE	2.9	3.9	4.8	4.6
G7	3.4	3.1	3.4	2.9
Imports Goods & Services
EMDE	3.6	1.3	4.4	6.0
G7	3.4	4.0	4.2	2.4
Terms of Trade of Goods & Services
EMDE	-0.5	-4.7	-1.0	0.1
G7	0.4	1.6	0.1	0.0
Terms of Trade of Goods
EMDE	-0.6	-4.3	-0.6	0.2
G7	0.2	1.4	0.0	-0.1

Notes: Commodity Price Index includes Fuel and Non-fuel Prices; Commodity Industrial Inputs Price includes agricultural raw materials and metal prices; Oil price is average of WTI, Brent and Dubai

Source: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook databank

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/02/weodata/index.aspx

The JP Morgan Global All-Industry Output Index of the JP Morgan Manufacturing and Services PMI^™, produced by JP Morgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM, with high association with world GDP, increased to 53.7 in Nov from 53.1 in Oct, indicating expansion at faster rate (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/5f068a9fea394b848e7b519e1f536d6f). This index has remained above the contraction territory of 50.0 during 37 consecutive months. The employment index increased from 51.3 in Oct to 51.7 in Nov with input prices rising at slower rate, new orders increasing at faster rate and output increasing at faster rate (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/5f068a9fea394b848e7b519e1f536d6f). David Hensley, Director of Global Economic Coordination at JP Morgan, finds improving growth (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/5f068a9fea394b848e7b519e1f536d6f). The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI^™, produced by JP Morgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM, did not change to 51.3 in Nov from 51.3 in Oct (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/ee4a1ac4309a45939ba11c629cdd3196). New export orders increased at slower rate. David Hensley, Director of Global Economic Coordination at JP Morgan, finds the index suggesting output growth at 2.5 percent annual rate in contrast with 1 percent in the first eleven months of 2015 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/ee4a1ac4309a45939ba11c629cdd3196). The Markit Brazil Composite Output Index increased from 42.7 in Oct to 44.5 in Nov, indicating contraction in activity of Brazil’s private sector (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/ae81d504f65447a1bf0c5fe53ce4021d). The Markit Brazil Services Business Activity index, compiled by Markit, increased from 43.0 in Oct to 45.5 in Nov, indicating contracting services activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/ae81d504f65447a1bf0c5fe53ce4021d). Pollyana De Lima, Economist at Markit, finds challenging conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/ae81d504f65447a1bf0c5fe53ce4021d). The Markit Brazil Purchasing Managers’ Index^TM (PMI^™) decreased from 44.1 in Oct to 43.8 in Nov, indicating deterioration in manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/5e42b3a541794c6a9b0140fb26a1bdf2). Pollyanna De Lima, Economist at Markit, finds faster stress in manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/5e42b3a541794c6a9b0140fb26a1bdf2).

VA United States. The Markit Flash US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) seasonally adjusted decreased to 52.6 in Nov from 54.1 in Oct (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/8059ca7f72744cf6b9b6c16b305f3ddf). New export orders decreased. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds growth at annual 2.0 percent in IVQ2015 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/8059ca7f72744cf6b9b6c16b305f3ddf). The Markit Flash US Services PMI™ Business Activity Index increased from 54.8 in Oct to 56.5 in Nov (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/7202ddf1934b494bba4642cf1c3bfd25). The Markit Flash US Composite PMI™ Output Index increased from 55.0 in Oct to 56.1 in Nov. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds that the surveys are consistent with GDP growth at annual rate of 2.3 percent (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/7202ddf1934b494bba4642cf1c3bfd25). The Markit US Composite PMI™ Output Index of Manufacturing and Services increased to 55.9 in Nov from 55.0 in Oct (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/34ae26f29e384204869b9e163678072d). The Markit US Services PMI™ Business Activity Index increased from 54.8 in Oct to 56.5 in Nov (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/34ae26f29e384204869b9e163678072d). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds the indexes suggesting growth at 2.0 percent annualized rate in IVQ2015 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/34ae26f29e384204869b9e163678072d). The Markit US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) decreased to 52.8 in Nov from 54.1 in Oct, which indicates expansion at slower rate (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/55642d5955a24942a959aa8d23facf0b). New foreign orders decreased. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds that the index suggests growth at annual rate of 2.0 percent in IIIQ2015 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/55642d5955a24942a959aa8d23facf0b). The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Report on Business^® decreased 1.5 percentage points from 50.1 in Oct to 48.6 in Nov, which indicates contraction (https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm?navItemNumber=30078). The index of new orders decreased 4.0 percentage points from 52.9 in Oct to 48.9 in Nov. The index of new exports changed 0.0 percentage points from 47.5 in Oct to 47.5 in Nov, contracting at the same rate. The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report on Business^® PMI decreased 3.2 percentage points from 59.1 in Oct to 55.9 in Nov, indicating growth of business activity/production during 76 consecutive months, while the index of new orders decreased 4.5 percentage points from 62.0 in Oct to 57.5 in Nov (https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm?navItemNumber=30079). Table USA provides the country economic indicators for the US.

Table USA, US Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index	Oct 12 months NSA ∆%: 0.2; ex food and energy ∆%: 1.9 Oct month SA ∆%: 0.2; ex food and energy ∆%: 0.2 Blog 11/22/15
Producer Price Index	Finished Goods Oct 12-month NSA ∆%: -4.1; ex food and energy ∆% 1.7 Oct month SA ∆% = -0.3; ex food and energy ∆%: -0.3 Final Demand Oct 12-month NSA ∆%: -1.6; ex food and energy ∆% 0.1 Oct month SA ∆% = -0.4; ex food and energy ∆%: -0.3 Blog 11/15/15 11/22/15
PCE Inflation	Oct 12-month NSA ∆%: headline 0.2; ex food and energy ∆% 1.3 Blog 11/29/15
Employment Situation	Household Survey: Nov Unemployment Rate SA 5.0% Blog calculation People in Job Stress Nov: 24.6 million NSA, 14.7% of Labor Force Establishment Survey: Nov Nonfarm Jobs +211,000; Private +197,000 jobs created  Oct 12-month Average Hourly Earnings Inflation Adjusted ∆%: 2.2 Blog 12/6/15
Nonfarm Hiring	Nonfarm Hiring fell from 63.3 million in 2006 to 54.2 million in 2013 or by 9.1 million and to 58.7 million in 2014 or by 4.6 million Private-Sector Hiring Sep 2015 4.780 million lower by 2.8 percent than 4.917 million in Sep 2006 Blog 11/15/15
GDP Growth	BEA Revised National Income Accounts IQ2012/IQ2011 ∆%: 2.8 IIQ2012/IIQ2011 2.5 IIIQ2012/IIIQ2011 2.4 IVQ2012/IVQ2011 1.3 IQ2013/IQ2012 1.1 IIQ2013/IIQ2012 0.9 IIIQ2013/IIIQ2012 1.5 IVQ2013/IVQ2012 2.5 IQ2014/IQ2013 1.7 IIQ2014/IIQ2013 2.6 IIIQ2014/IIIQ2013 2.9 IVQ2014/IVQ2013 2.5 IQ2015/IQ2014 2.9 IIQ2015/IIQ2014 2.7 IIIQ2015/IIIQ2014: 2.2 IQ2012 SAAR 2.7 IIQ2012 SAAR 1.9 IIIQ2012 SAAR 0.5 IVQ2012 SAAR 0.1 IQ2013 SAAR 1.9 IIQ2013 SAAR 1.1 IIIQ2013 SAAR 3.0 IVQ2013 SAAR 3.8 IQ2014 SAAR -0.9 IIQ2014 SAAR 4.6 IIIQ2014 SAAR 4.3 IVQ2014 SAAR 2.1 IQ2015 SAAR 0.6 IIQ2015 SAAR: 3.9 IIIQ2015: 2.1 Blog 11/29/2015
Real Private Fixed Investment	SAAR IIIQ2015 ∆% 2.9 IVQ2007 to IIIQ2015: 7.2% Blog 11/29/15
Corporate Profits	IIIQ2015 SAAR: Corporate Profits -1.6; Undistributed Profits -1.8 Blog 11/29/15
Personal Income and Consumption	Oct month ∆% SA Real Disposable Personal Income (RDPI) SA ∆% 0.4 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (RPCE): 0.1 12-month Oct NSA ∆%: RDPI: 3.9; RPCE ∆%: 2.7 Blog 11/29/15
Quarterly Services Report	IIQ15/IIQ14 NSA ∆%: Information 3.8 Financial & Insurance 3.0 Earlier Data: Blog 3/22/15
Employment Cost Index	Compensation Private IIIQ2014 SA ∆%: 0.6 Sep 12 months ∆%: 1.9 Earlier Data: Blog 2/1/15
Industrial Production	Oct month SA ∆%: -0.2 Oct 12 months SA ∆%: 0.3 Manufacturing Oct SA 0.4 ∆% Oct 12 months SA ∆% 1.9, NSA 2.0 Capacity Utilization: 77.5 Blog 11/22/15
Productivity and Costs	Nonfarm Business Productivity IIIQ2015∆% SAAE 1.6; IIIQ2015/IIIQ2014 ∆% 0.4; Unit Labor Costs SAAE IIIQ2015 ∆% 1.4; IIIQ2015/IIIQ2014 ∆%: 2.0 Blog 11/8/15
New York Fed Manufacturing Index	General Business Conditions From Oct -11.36 to Nov minus 10.74 New Orders: From Oct minus 18.91 to Nov -11.82 Blog 11/22/15
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index	General Index from Oct -4.5 to Nov 1.9 New Orders from Oct -10.6 to Nov -3.7 Blog 11/22/15
Manufacturing Shipments and Orders	New Orders SA Oct ∆% 1.5 Ex Transport 0.2 Jan-Oct NSA New Orders ∆% minus 7.1 Ex transport minus 7.0 Earlier data: Blog 4/5/15
Durable Goods	Oct New Orders SA ∆%: 3.0 ; ex transport ∆%: 0.5 Jan-Oct 15/Jan-Oct 14 New Orders NSA ∆%: -4.2; ex transport ∆% -2.7 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15
Sales of New Motor Vehicles	Nov 2015 15,827,824; Nov 2014 15,014,661. Nov 15 SAAR 18.19 million, Oct 15 SAAR 18.24 million, Nov 2014 SAAR 17.3 million Blog 12/6/15
Sales of Merchant Wholesalers	Jan-Sep 2015/Jan-Sep 2014 NSA ∆%: Total -3.4; Durable Goods: 1.2; Nondurable Goods: -7.4 EARLIER DATA: Blog 4/12/15
Sales and Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers	Sep 15 12-M NSA ∆%: Sales Total Business -2.7; Manufacturers -5.0 Retailers 1.7; Merchant Wholesalers -3.6 Blog 11/15/15
Sales for Retail and Food Services	Jan-Sep 2015/Jan-Sep 2014 ∆%: Retail and Food Services 2.1; Retail ∆% 1.3 Blog 11/15/15
Value of Construction Put in Place	SAAR month SA Oct ∆%: 1.0 Jan-Oct NSA: 10.7 Earlier Data: Blog 4/5/15
Case-Shiller Home Prices	Sep 2015/ Sep 2014 ∆% NSA: 10 Cities 5.0; 20 Cities: 5.5; National: 4.9 ∆% Sep SA: 10 Cities 0.6 ; 20 Cities: 0.6 Blog 11/29/15
FHFA House Price Index Purchases Only	Sep SA ∆% 0.8; 12 month NSA ∆%: 6.1 Blog 11/29/15
New House Sales	Oct 2015 month SAAR ∆%: 10.7 Jan-Oct 2015/Jan-Oct 2014 NSA ∆%: 15.0 Blog 11/29/15
Housing Starts and Permits	Oct Starts month SA ∆% minus 11.0; Permits ∆%: 4.1 Jan-Oct 2015/Jan-Oct 2014 NSA ∆% Starts 10.2; Permits  ∆% 11.9 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Rate of Homeownership	IIIQ2015: 63.7 Blog 11/1/15
Trade Balance	Balance Sep SA -$40,812 million versus Aug -$48,017 million Exports Sep SA ∆%: 1.6 Imports Sep SA ∆%: -1.8 Goods Exports Jan-Sep 2015/Jan-Sep 2014 NSA ∆%: minus 6.0 Goods Imports Jan-Aug 2015/Jan-Aug 2014 NSA ∆%: minus 3.9 Blog 11/8/15
Export and Import Prices	Oct 12-month NSA ∆%: Imports -10.5; Exports -6.7 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Consumer Credit	Sep ∆% annual rate: Total 10.0; Revolving 8.7; Nonrevolving 10.5 Earlier Data: Blog 5/10/15
Net Foreign Purchases of Long-term Treasury Securities	Sep Net Foreign Purchases of Long-term US Securities: $20.4 billion Major Holders of Treasury Securities: China $1258.0 billion; Japan $1177.1 billion; Total Foreign US Treasury Holdings Jun $6101.7 billion Blog 11/22/15
Treasury Budget	Fiscal Year 2016/2015 ∆% Oct: Receipts -0.8; Outlays 3.9; Individual Income Taxes 2.4 Deficit Fiscal Year 2011 $1,300 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2012 $1,087 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2013 $680 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2014 $483 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2015 $439 billion Blog 11/15/2015
CBO Budget and Economic Outlook	2012 Deficit $1087 B 6.8% GDP Debt $11,281 B 70.4% GDP 2013 Deficit $680 B, 4.1% GDP Debt $11,983 B 72.3% GDP 2014 Deficit $483 B 2.8% GDP Debt $12,779 B 74.1% GDP 2025 Deficit $1,088B, 4.0% GDP Debt $21,605B 78.7% GDP 2040: Long-term Debt/GDP 103% Blog 8/26/12 11/18/12 2/10/13 9/22/13 2/16/14 8/24/14 9/14/14 3/1/15 6/21/14
Commercial Banks Assets and Liabilities	Oct 2015 SAAR ∆%: Securities 7.1 Loans 8.3 Cash Assets minus 53.6 Deposits 5.5 Blog 11/29/15
Flow of Funds Net Worth of Families and Nonprofits	IIQ2015 ∆ since 2007 Assets +$18,757.3 BN Nonfinancial 2058.2 BN Real estate $1269.1 BN Financial +16,699.2 BN Net Worth +$18,874.4 BN Blog 9/27/15
Current Account Balance of Payments	IIQ2015 -117,258 MM % GDP 2.5 Blog 9/27/15
Collapse of United States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation	Blog 11/22/15
IMF View	World Real Economic Growth 2015 ∆% 3.1 Blog 10/11/15
Income, Poverty and Health Insurance in the United States	46.657 Million Below Poverty in 2014, 14.8% of Population Median Family Income CPI-2014 Adjusted $53,657 in 2014 back to 1996 Levels Uncovered by Health Insurance 32.968 Million in 2014 Blog 10/11/15

Links to blog comments in Table USA: 11/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/dollar-revaluation-constraining.html

11/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-liftoff-followed-by.html

11/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-policy-conundrum-recovery.html

11/8/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/live-possibility-of-interest-rates.html

11/01/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-increase-considered.html

10/11/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/10/interest-rate-policy-uncertainty-imf.html

9/27/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/monetary-policy-designed-on-measurable.html

6/21/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/fluctuating-financial-asset-valuations.html

5/10/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/quite-high-equity-valuations-and.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html

9/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitics-monetary-policy-and.html

8/24/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/monetary-policy-world-inflation-waves.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

9/22/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

2/10/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/united-states-unsustainable-fiscal.html

Motor vehicle sales and production in the US have been in long-term structural change. Table VA-1 provides the data on new motor vehicle sales and domestic car production in the US from 1990 to 2010. New motor vehicle sales grew from 14,137 thousand in 1990 to the peak of 17,806 thousand in 2000 or 29.5 percent. In that same period, domestic car production fell from 6,231 thousand in 1990 to 5,542 thousand in 2000 or -11.1 percent. New motor vehicle sales fell from 17,445 thousand in 2005 to 11,772 in 2010 or 32.5 percent while domestic car production fell from 4,321 thousand in 2005 to 2,840 thousand in 2010 or 34.3 percent. In Nov 2015, light vehicle sales accumulated to 15,827,824 million, which is higher by 5.4 percent relative to 15,014,661 a year earlier (http://motorintelligence.com/m_frameset.html). The seasonally adjusted annual rate of light vehicle sales in the US reached 18.19 million in Nov 2015, lower than 18.24 million in Oct 2015 and higher than 17.3 million in Nov 2014 (http://motorintelligence.com/m_frameset.html).

Table VA-1, US, New Motor Vehicle Sales and Car Production, Thousand Units

	New Motor Vehicle Sales	New Car Sales and Leases	New Truck Sales and Leases	Domestic Car Production
1990	14,137	9,300	4,837	6,231
1991	12,725	8,589	4,136	5,454
1992	13,093	8,215	4,878	5,979
1993	14,172	8,518	5,654	5,979
1994	15,397	8,990	6,407	6,614
1995	15,106	8,536	6,470	6,340
1996	15,449	8,527	6,922	6,081
1997	15,490	8,273	7,218	5,934
1998	15,958	8,142	7,816	5,554
1999	17,401	8,697	8,704	5,638
2000	17,806	8,852	8,954	5,542
2001	17,468	8,422	9,046	4,878
2002	17,144	8,109	9,036	5,019
2003	16,968	7,611	9,357	4,510
2004	17,298	7,545	9,753	4,230
2005	17,445	7,720	9,725	4,321
2006	17,049	7,821	9,228	4,367
2007	16,460	7,618	8,683	3,924
2008	13,494	6,814	6.680	3,777
2009	10,601	5,456	5,154	2,247
2010	11,772	5,729	6,044	2,840

Source: US Census Bureau

http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/cats/wholesale_retail_trade/motor_vehicle_sales.html

Chart VA-1 of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve provides output of motor vehicles and parts in the United States from 1972 to 2015. Output virtually stagnated since the late 1990s.

Chart VA-1, US, Motor Vehicles and Parts Output, 1972-2015

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm

VB Japan. The GDP of Japan grew at 1.0 percent per year on average from 1991 to 2002, with the GDP implicit deflator falling at 0.8 percent per year on average. The average growth rate of Japan’s GDP was 4 percent per year on average from the middle of the 1970s to 1992 (Ito 2004). Low growth in Japan in the 1990s is commonly labeled as “the lost decade” (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 81-115). Table VB-GDP provides yearly growth rates of Japan’s GDP from 1995 to 2014. Growth weakened from 1.9 per cent in 1995 and 2.6 percent in 1996 to contractions of 2.0 percent in 1998 and 0.2 percent in 1999. Growth rates were below 2 percent with exception of 2.3 percent in 2000, 2.4 percent in 2004 and 2.2 percent in 2007. Japan’s GDP contracted sharply by 1.0 percent in 2008 and 5.5 percent in 2009. As in most advanced economies, growth was robust at 4.7 percent in 2010 but mediocre at minus 0.5 percent in 2011 because of the tsunami and 1.7 percent in 2012. Japan’s GDP grew 1.6 percent in 2013 and stagnated in 2014 at minus 0.1. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). Japan’s real GDP in calendar year 2014 is 0.6 percent higher than in calendar year 2007 (http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html).

Table VB-GDP, Japan, Yearly Percentage Change of GDP  ∆%

Calendar Year	∆%
1995	1.9
1996	2.6
1997	1.6
1998	-2.0
1999	-0.2
2000	2.3
2001	0.4
2002	0.3
2003	1.7
2004	2.4
2005	1.3
2006	1.7
2007	2.2
2008	-1.0
2009	-5.5
2010	4.7
2011	-0.5
2012	1.7
2013	1.6
2014	-0.1

Source: Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html

Table VB-BOJF provides the forecasts of economic activity and inflation in Japan by the majority of members of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, which is part of their Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf) with changes on Jul 21, 2015 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k150121a.pdf). For fiscal 2015, the forecast is of growth of GDP between 1.5 to 2.1 percent, with the all items CPI less fresh food 0.2 to 1.2 to 3.3 percent (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf). The critical difference is forecast of the CPI excluding fresh food of 0.2 to 1.2 percent in 2015 and 1.2 to 2.2 percent in 2016 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf). Consumer price inflation in Japan excluding fresh food was minus 0.4 percent in Mar 2014 and 2.2 percent in 12 months (http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1581.htm), significantly because of the increase of the tax on value added of consumption in Apr 2014. The new monetary policy of the Bank of Japan aims to increase inflation to 2 percent. These forecasts are biannual in Apr and Oct. The Cabinet Office, Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan released on Jan 22, 2013, a “Joint Statement of the Government and the Bank of Japan on Overcoming Deflation and Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130122c.pdf) with the important change of increasing the inflation target of monetary policy from 1 percent to 2 percent:

“The Bank of Japan conducts monetary policy based on the principle that the policy shall be aimed at achieving price stability, thereby contributing to the sound development of the national economy, and is responsible for maintaining financial system stability. The Bank aims to achieve price stability on a sustainable basis, given that there are various factors that affect prices in the short run.

The Bank recognizes that the inflation rate consistent with price stability on a sustainable basis will rise as efforts by a wide range of entities toward strengthening competitiveness and growth potential of Japan's economy make progress. Based on this recognition, the Bank sets the price stability target at 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index.

Under the price stability target specified above, the Bank will pursue monetary easing and aim to achieve this target at the earliest possible time. Taking into consideration that it will take considerable time before the effects of monetary policy permeate the economy, the Bank will ascertain whether there is any significant risk to the sustainability of economic growth, including from the accumulation of financial imbalances.”

The Bank of Japan also provided explicit analysis of its view on price stability in a “Background note regarding the Bank’s thinking on price stability” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/data/rel130123a1.pdf http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130123a.htm/). The Bank of Japan also amended “Principal terms and conditions for the Asset Purchase Program” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130122a.pdf): “Asset purchases and loan provision shall be conducted up to the maximum outstanding amounts by the end of 2013. From January 2014, the Bank shall purchase financial assets and provide loans every month, the amount of which shall be determined pursuant to the relevant rules of the Bank.”

Financial markets in Japan and worldwide were shocked by new bold measures of “quantitative and qualitative monetary easing” by the Bank of Japan (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The objective of policy is to “achieve the price stability target of 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) at the earliest possible time, with a time horizon of about two years” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The main elements of the new policy are as follows:

1. Monetary Base Control. Most central banks in the world pursue interest rates instead of monetary aggregates, injecting bank reserves to lower interest rates to desired levels. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has shifted back to monetary aggregates, conducting money market operations with the objective of increasing base money, or monetary liabilities of the government, at the annual rate of 60 to 70 trillion yen. The BOJ estimates base money outstanding at “138 trillion yen at end-2012) and plans to increase it to “200 trillion yen at end-2012 and 270 trillion yen at end 2014” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
2. Maturity Extension of Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds. Purchases of bonds will be extended even up to bonds with maturity of 40 years with the guideline of extending the average maturity of BOJ bond purchases from three to seven years. The BOJ estimates the current average maturity of Japanese government bonds (JGB) at around seven years. The BOJ plans to purchase about 7.5 trillion yen per month (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130404d.pdf). Takashi Nakamichi, Tatsuo Ito and Phred Dvorak, wiring on “Bank of Japan mounts bid for revival,” on Apr 4, 2013, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323646604578401633067110420.html), find that the limit of maturities of three years on purchases of JGBs was designed to avoid views that the BOJ would finance uncontrolled government deficits.
3. Seigniorage. The BOJ is pursuing coordination with the government that will take measures to establish “sustainable fiscal structure with a view to ensuring the credibility of fiscal management” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
4. Diversification of Asset Purchases. The BOJ will engage in transactions of exchange traded funds (ETF) and real estate investment trusts (REITS) and not solely on purchases of JGBs. Purchases of ETFs will be at an annual rate of increase of one trillion yen and purchases of REITS at 30 billion yen.
5. Bank Lending Facility and Growth Supporting Funding Facility. At the meeting on Feb 18, the Bank of Japan doubled the scale of these lending facilities to prevent their expiration in the near future (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140218a.pdf).

Table VB-BOJF provides the forecasts of economic activity and inflation in Japan by the majority of members of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, which is part of their Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1510b.pdf) with changes on Oct 31, 2015 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1510b.pdf). On Jun 19, 2015, the Bank of Japan announced a “New Framework for Monetary Policy Meetings,” which provides for quarterly release of the forecasts of the economy and prices beginning in Jan 2016 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/rel150619a.pdf). For fiscal 2014, the forecast is of growth of GDP between minus 0.7 to minus 0.3 percent, with the all items CPI less fresh food 2.9 to 3.3 percent (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k150121a.pdf). The critical difference is forecast of the CPI excluding fresh food of 0.3 to 1.4 percent in 2015 and 0.9 to 2.3 percent in 2016 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k150121a.pdf). Consumer price inflation in Japan excluding fresh food was minus 0.2 percent in Dec 2014 and 2.5 percent in 12 months (http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1581.htm), significantly because of the increase of the tax on value added of consumption in Apr 2014. The new monetary policy of the Bank of Japan aims to increase inflation to 2 percent. These forecasts are biannual in Apr and Oct. The Cabinet Office, Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan released on Jan 22, 2013, a “Joint Statement of the Government and the Bank of Japan on Overcoming Deflation and Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130122c.pdf) with the important change of increasing the inflation target of monetary policy from 1 percent to 2 percent:

“The Bank of Japan conducts monetary policy based on the principle that the policy shall be aimed at achieving price stability, thereby contributing to the sound development of the national economy, and is responsible for maintaining financial system stability. The Bank aims to achieve price stability on a sustainable basis, given that there are various factors that affect prices in the short run.

The Bank recognizes that the inflation rate consistent with price stability on a sustainable basis will rise as efforts by a wide range of entities toward strengthening competitiveness and growth potential of Japan's economy make progress. Based on this recognition, the Bank sets the price stability target at 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index.

Under the price stability target specified above, the Bank will pursue monetary easing and aim to achieve this target at the earliest possible time. Taking into consideration that it will take considerable time before the effects of monetary policy permeate the economy, the Bank will ascertain whether there is any significant risk to the sustainability of economic growth, including from the accumulation of financial imbalances.”

The Bank of Japan also provided explicit analysis of its view on price stability in a “Background note regarding the Bank’s thinking on price stability” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/data/rel130123a1.pdf http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130123a.htm/). The Bank of Japan also amended “Principal terms and conditions for the Asset Purchase Program” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130122a.pdf): “Asset purchases and loan provision shall be conducted up to the maximum outstanding amounts by the end of 2013. From January 2014, the Bank shall purchase financial assets and provide loans every month, the amount of which shall be determined pursuant to the relevant rules of the Bank.”

Financial markets in Japan and worldwide were shocked by new bold measures of “quantitative and qualitative monetary easing” by the Bank of Japan (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The objective of policy is to “achieve the price stability target of 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) at the earliest possible time, with a time horizon of about two years” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The main elements of the new policy are as follows:

1. Monetary Base Control. Most central banks in the world pursue interest rates instead of monetary aggregates, injecting bank reserves to lower interest rates to desired levels. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has shifted back to monetary aggregates, conducting money market operations with the objective of increasing base money, or monetary liabilities of the government, at the annual rate of 60 to 70 trillion yen. The BOJ estimates base money outstanding at “138 trillion yen at end-2012) and plans to increase it to “200 trillion yen at end-2012 and 270 trillion yen at end 2014” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
2. Maturity Extension of Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds. Purchases of bonds will be extended even up to bonds with maturity of 40 years with the guideline of extending the average maturity of BOJ bond purchases from three to seven years. The BOJ estimates the current average maturity of Japanese government bonds (JGB) at around seven years. The BOJ plans to purchase about 7.5 trillion yen per month (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130404d.pdf). Takashi Nakamichi, Tatsuo Ito and Phred Dvorak, wiring on “Bank of Japan mounts bid for revival,” on Apr 4, 2013, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323646604578401633067110420.html), find that the limit of maturities of three years on purchases of JGBs was designed to avoid views that the BOJ would finance uncontrolled government deficits.
3. Seigniorage. The BOJ is pursuing coordination with the government that will take measures to establish “sustainable fiscal structure with a view to ensuring the credibility of fiscal management” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
4. Diversification of Asset Purchases. The BOJ will engage in transactions of exchange traded funds (ETF) and real estate investment trusts (REITS) and not solely on purchases of JGBs. Purchases of ETFs will be at an annual rate of increase of one trillion yen and purchases of REITS at 30 billion yen.
5. Bank Lending Facility and Growth Supporting Funding Facility. At the meeting on Feb 18, the Bank of Japan doubled the scale of these lending facilities to prevent their expiration in the near future (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140218a.pdf).

Table VB-BOJF, Bank of Japan, Forecasts of the Majority of Members of the Policy Board, % Year on Year

Fiscal Year Date of Forecast	Real GDP	CPI All Items Less Fresh Food	Excluding Effects of Consumption Tax Hikes
2013
Apr 2014	+2.2 to +2.3 [+2.2]	+0.8
Jan 2014	+2.5 to +2.9 [+2.7]	+0.7 to +0.9 [+0.7]
Oct 2013	+2.6 to +3.0 [+2.7]	+0.6 to +1.0 [+0.7]
Jul 2013	+2.5 to +3.0 [+2.8]	+0.5 to +0.8 [+0.6]
2014
Apr 2015	-1.0 to -0.8 [-0.9]	+2.8	+0.8
Jan 2015	-0.6 to -0.4 [-0.5]	+2.9 to +3.2 [+2.9]	+0.9 to +1.2 [+0.9]
Oct 2014	+0.2 to +0.7 [+0.5]	+3.1 to +3.4 [+3.2]	+1.1 to +1.4 [+1.2]
Jul 2014	+0.6 to +1.3 [+1.0]	+3.2 to +3.5 [+3.3]	+1.2 to +1.5 [+1.3]
Apr 2014	+0.8 to +1.3 [+1.1]	+3.0 to +3.5 [+3.3]	+1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3]
Jan 2014	+0.9 to 1.5 [+1.4]	+2.9 to +3.6 [+3.3]	+0.9 to +1.6 [+1.3]
Oct 2013	+0.9 to +1.5 [+1.5]	+2.8 to +3.6 [+3.3]	+0.8 to +1.6 [+1.3]
Jul 2013	+0.8 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+2.7 to +3.6 [+3.3]	+0.7 to +1.6 [+1.3]
2015
Oct 2015	+0.8 to +1.4 [+1.2]	0.0 to +0.4 [+0.1
Jul 2015	+1.5 to +1.9 [+1.7]	+0.3 to +1.0 [+0.7]
Apr 2015	+1.5 to +2.1 [+2.0]	+0.2 to 1.2 [+0.8]	+0.2 to 1.2 [+0.8]
Jan 2015	+1.8 to +2.3 [+2.1]	+0.4 to +1.3 [+1.0]	+0.4 to +1.3 [+1.0]
Oct 2014	+1.2 to +1.7 [+1.5]	+1.8 to 2.6 [+2.4]	+1.1 to +1.9 [+1.7]
Jul 2014	+1.2 to +1.6 [+1.5]	+1.9 to +2.8 [+2.6]	+1.2 to +2.1 [+1.9]
Apr 2014	+1.2 to +1.5 [+1.5]	+1.9 to +2.8 [+2.6]	+1.2 to +2.1 [+1.9]
Jan 2014	+1.2 to +1.8 [+1.5]	+1.7 to +2.9 [+2.6]	+1.0 to +2.2 [+1.9]
Oct 2013	+1.3 to +1.8 [+1.5]	+1.6 to +2.9 [+2.6]	+0.9 to +2.2 [+1.9]
Jul 2013	+1.3 to +1.9 [+1.5]	+1.6 to +2.9 [+2.6]	+0.9 to +2.2 [+1.9]
2016
Oct 2015	+1.2 to +1.6 [+1.4]	+0.8 to +1.5 [+1.4]
Jul 2015	+1.5 to 1.7 [+1.5]	+1.2 to +2.1 [+1.9]
Apr 2015	+1.4 to +1.8 [+1.5]	+1.2 to +2.2 [+2.0]	+1.2 to +2.2 [+2.0]
Jan 2015	+1.5 to +1.7 [+1.6]	+1.5 to +2.3 [+2.2]	+1.5 to +2.3 [+2.2]
Oct 2014	+1.0 to +1.4 [+1.2]	+1.9 to 3.0 [+2.8]	+1.2 to 2.3 [+2.1]
Jul 2014	+1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+2.0 to +3.0 [+2.8]	+1.3 to +2.3 [+2.1]
Apr 2014	+1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+2.0 to +3.0 [+2.8]	+1.3 to +2.3 [+2.1]
2017
Oct 2015	+0.1 to +0.5 [+0.3]	+2.5 to +3.4 [+3.1]	+1.2 to 2.1 [+1.8]
Jul 2015	+0.1 to +0.5 [+0.2]	+2.7 to +3.4 [+3.1]	+1.4 to +2.1 [+1.8]
Apr 2015	+0.1 to +0.5 [+0.2]	+2.7 to +3.4 [+3.2]	+1.4 to +2.1 [+1.9]

Figures in brackets are the median of forecasts of Policy Board members

Source: Policy Board, Bank of Japan

Figures in brackets are the median of forecasts of Policy Board members

Source: Policy Board, Bank of Japan

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k150121a.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140715a.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1510b.pdf

The Nikkei Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI Index™ with the Flash Japan

Manufacturing PMI™ increased from 52.4 in Oct to 52.8 in Nov and the Flash Japan

Manufacturing Output Index™ increased from 52.4 in Oct to 53.9 in Nov

(https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/bc9199741a344018bc7d461211ff9754). New export orders increased at faster rate. Amy Brownbill, Economist at

Markit, finds improving conditions in Japan’s manufacturing

(https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/bc9199741a344018bc7d461211ff9754).The Nikkei Composite Output PMI Index did not change from 52.3 in Oct to 52.3 in Nov, indicating increase of business activity (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/01ef21005350471995496d7c68a00540). The Nikkei Business Activity Index of Services decreased to 51.6 in Nov from 52.2 in Oct (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/01ef21005350471995496d7c68a00540). Amy Brownbill, Ecoomist at Markit and author of the report, finds slowing services (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/01ef21005350471995496d7c68a00540). The Nikkei Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI™), seasonally adjusted, increased from 52.4 in Oct to 52.6 in Nov (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/f1bdda51b3064ceb94844d4459dc960c). New orders increased from home and abroad. Amy Brownbill, Economist at Markit, finds improving conditions in manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/f1bdda51b3064ceb94844d4459dc960c).Table JPY provides the country data table for Japan.

Table JPY, Japan, Economic Indicators

Historical GDP and CPI	1981-2010 Real GDP Growth and CPI Inflation 1981-2010 Blog 8/9/11 Table 26
Corporate Goods Prices	Sep ∆% -0.6 12 months ∆% -3.8 Blog 11/15/15
Consumer Price Index	Oct NSA ∆% -0.1; Sep 12 months NSA ∆% 0.3 Blog 11/29/15
Real GDP Growth	IIIQ2015 ∆%: -0.2 on IIQ2015;  IIIQ2015 SAAR minus 0.8; ∆% from quarter a year earlier: 1.0 % Blog 6/16/13 8/18/13 9/15/13 11/17/13 12/15/13 2/23/14 3/16/14 5/18/14 6/15/14 8/17/14 9/14/14 11/23/14 12/14/14 2/22/15 3/15/15 5/24/15 6/14/15 8/23/15 9/13/15 11/22/15
Employment Report	Oct Unemployed 2.08 million Change in unemployed since last year: minus 250 thousand Unemployment rate: 3.1 % Blog 11/29/15
All Industry Indices	Jul month SA ∆% 0.2 12-month NSA ∆% 1.7 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15
Industrial Production	Sep SA month ∆%: 1.0 Aug minus 1.2 Sep 12-month NSA ∆% -0.9 Aug -0.9 Earlier Data: Blog 3/29/15
Machine Orders	Total Sep ∆% 9.5 Private ∆%: 2.2 Sep ∆% Excluding Volatile Orders minus 7.5 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Tertiary Index	Sep month SA ∆% -0.4 Sep 12 months NSA ∆% 0.6 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15
Wholesale and Retail Sales	Sep 12 months: Total ∆%: -2.2 Wholesale ∆%: -3.0 Retail ∆%: -0.2 Earlier Data: Blog 3/29/15
Family Income and Expenditure Survey	Oct 12-month ∆% total nominal consumption -2.1, real -2.4 Earlier Data: Blog 3/29/15
Trade Balance	Exports Oct 12 months ∆%: minus 2.1 Imports Oct 12 months ∆% -13.4 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15

Links to blog comments in Table JPY: 11/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/dollar-revaluation-constraining.html

11/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-liftoff-followed-by.html

11/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-policy-conundrum-recovery.html

9/13/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what_13.html

08/23/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/global-decline-of-values-of-financial.html

6/14/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/volatility-of-financial-asset.html

5/24/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/interest-rate-policy-and-dollar.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

3/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

2/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html

12/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/global-financial-and-economic-risk.html

11/23/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.htm

9/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitics-monetary-policy-and.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

6/15/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financialgeopolitical-risks-recovery.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html

2/23/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html

12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

VC China. China estimates an index of nonmanufacturing purchasing managers based on a sample of 1200 nonmanufacturing enterprises across the country (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Table CIPMNM provides this index and components. The total index increased from 55.7 in Jan 2011 to 58.0 in Mar 2012, decreasing to 53.9 in Aug 2013. The index decreased from 56.0 in Nov 2013 to 54.6 in Dec 2013, easing to 53.4 in Jan 2014. The index moved to 53.6 in Nov 2015. The index of new orders increased from 52.2 in Jan 2012 to 54.3 in Dec 2012 but fell to 50.1 in May 2013, barely above the neutral frontier of 50.0. The index of new orders stabilized at 51.0 in Nov-Dec 2013, easing to 50.9 in Jan 2014. The index of new orders moved to 50.2 in Nov 2015.

Table CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted

	Total Index	New Orders	Interm. Input Prices	Subs Prices	Exp
Nov 2015	53.6	50.2	49,3	47.7	60.0
Oct	53.1	51.2	51.2	48.8	61.1
Sep	53.4	50.2	50.8	47.9	60.0
Aug	53.4	49.6	49.6	47.8	59.7
Jul	53.9	50.1	48.9	47.4	60.0
Jun	53.8	51.3	50.6	48.7	59.7
May	53.2	49.5	52.8	50.4	60.1
Apr	53.4	49.1	50.8	48.9	60.0
Mar	53.7	50.3	50.0	48.4	58.8
Feb	53.9	51.2	52.5	51.2	58.7
Jan	53.7	50.2	47.6	46.9	59.6
Dec 2014	54.1	50.5	50.1	47.3	59.5
Nov	53.9	50.1	50.6	47.7	59.7
Oct	53.8	51.0	52.0	48.8	59.9
Sep	54.0	49.5	49.8	47.3	60.9
Aug	54.4	50.0	52.2	48.3	61.2
Jul	54.2	50.7	53.4	49.5	61.5
Jun	55.0	50.7	56.0	50.8	60.4
May	55.5	52.7	54.5	49.0	60.7
Apr	54.8	50.8	52.4	49.4	61.5
Mar	54.5	50.8	52.8	49.5	61.5
Feb	55.0	51.4	52.1	49.0	59.9
Jan	53.4	50.9	54.5	50.1	58.1
Dec 2013	54.6	51.0	56.9	52.0	58.7
Nov	56.0	51.0	54.8	49.5	61.3
Oct	56.3	51.6	56.1	51.4	60.5
Sep	55.4	53.4	56.7	50.6	60.1
Aug	53.9	50.9	57.1	51.2	62.9
Jul	54.1	50.3	58.2	52.4	63.9
Jun	53.9	50.3	55.0	50.6	61.8
May	54.3	50.1	54.4	50.7	62.9
Apr	54.5	50.9	51.1	47.6	62.5
Mar	55.6	52.0	55.3	50.0	62.4
Feb	54.5	51.8	56.2	51.1	62.7
Jan	56.2	53.7	58.2	50.9	61.4
Dec 2012	56.1	54.3	53.8	50.0	64.6
Nov	55.6	53.2	52.5	48.4	64.6
Oct	55.5	51.6	58.1	50.5	63.4
Sep	53.7	51.8	57.5	51.3	60.9
Aug	56.3	52.7	57.6	51.2	63.2
Jul	55.6	53.2	49.7	48.7	63.9
Jun	56.7	53.7	52.1	48.6	65.5
May	55.2	52.5	53.6	48.5	65.4
Apr	56.1	52.7	57.9	50.3	66.1
Mar	58.0	53.5	60.2	52.0	66.6
Feb	57.3	52.7	59.0	51.2	63.8
Jan	55.7	52.2	58.2	51.1	65.3

Notes: Interm.: Intermediate; Subs: Subscription; Exp: Business Expectations

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart CIPMNM provides China’s nonmanufacturing purchasing managers’ index. The index fell from 56.0 in Oct 2013 to 53.6 in Nov 2015.

Chart CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Table CIPMMFG provides the index of purchasing managers of manufacturing seasonally adjusted of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The general index (IPM) rose from 50.5 in Jan 2012 to 53.3 in Apr 2012, falling to 49.2 in Aug 2012, rebounding to 50.6 in Dec 2012. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013, barely above the neutral frontier at 50.0, recovering to 51.4 in Nov 2013 but falling to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.5 in Jan 2014, 50.1 in Dec 2014 and 49.6 in Nov 2015. The index of new orders fell from 54.5 in Apr 2012 to 51.2 in Dec 2012. The index of new orders fell from 52.3 in Nov 2013 to 52.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.9 in Jan 2014 and moved to 50.4 in Dec 2014. The index moved to 49.8 in Nov 2015.

Table CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted

	IPM	PI	NOI	INV	EMP	SDEL
2015
Nov	49.6	51.9	49.8	47.1	47.6	50.6
Oct	49.8	52.2	50.3	47.2	47.8	50.6
Sep	49.8	52.3	50.2	47.5	47.9	50.8
Aug	49.7	51.7	49.7	48.3	47.9	50.6
Jul	50.0	52.4	49.9	48.4	48.0	50.4
Jun	50.2	52.9	50.1	48.7	48.1	50.3
May	50.2	52.9	50.6	48.2	48.2	50.9
Apr	50.1	52.6	50.2	48.2	48.0	50.4
Mar	50.1	52.1	50.2	48.0	48.4	50.1
Feb	49.9	51.4	50.4	48.2	47.8	49.9
Jan	49.8	51.7	50.2	47.3	47.9	50.2
2014
Dec	50.1	52.2	50.4	47.5	48.1	49.9
Nov	50.3	52.5	50.9	47.7	48.2	50.3
Oct	50.8	53.1	51.6	48.4	48.4	50.1
Sep	51.1	53.6	52.2	48.8	48.2	50.1
Aug	51.1	53.2	52.5	48.6	48.2	50.0
Jul	51.7	54.2	53.6	49.0	48.3	50.2
Jun	51.0	53.0	52.8	48.0	48.6	50.5
May	50.8	52.8	52.3	48.0	48.2	50.3
Apr	50.4	52.5	51.2	48.1	48.3	50.1
Mar	50.3	52.7	50.6	47.8	48.3	49.8
Feb	50.2	52.6	50.5	47.4	48.0	49.9
Jan	50.5	53.0	50.9	47.8	48.2	49.8
Dec 2013	51.0	53.9	52.0	47.6	48.7	50.5
Nov	51.4	54.5	52.3	47.8	49.6	50.6
Oct	51.4	54.4	52.5	48.6	49.2	50.8
Sep	51.1	52.9	52.8	48.5	49.1	50.8
Aug	51.0	52.6	52.4	48.0	49.3	50.4
Jul	50.3	52.4	50.6	47.6	49.1	50.1
Jun	50.1	52.0	50.4	47.4	48.7	50.3
May	50.8	53.3	51.8	47.6	48.8	50.8
Apr	50.6	52.6	51.7	47.5	49.0	50.8
Mar	50.9	52.7	52.3	47.5	49.8	51.1
Feb	50.1	51.2	50.1	49.5	47.6	48.3
Jan	50.4	51.3	51.6	50.1	47.8	50.0
Dec 2012	50.6	52.0	51.2	47.3	49.0	48.8
Nov	50.6	52.5	51.2	47.9	48.7	49.9
Oct	50.2	52.1	50.4	47.3	49.2	50.1
Sep	49.8	51.3	49.8	47.0	48.9	49.5
Aug	49.2	50.9	48.7	45.1	49.1	50.0
Jul	50.1	51.8	49.0	48.5	49.5	49.0
Jun	50.2	52.0	49.2	48.2	49.7	49.1
May	50.4	52.9	49.8	45.1	50.5	49.0
Apr	53.3	57.2	54.5	48.5	51.0	49.6
Mar	53.1	55.2	55.1	49.5	51.0	48.9
Feb	51.0	53.8	51.0	48.8	49.5	50.3
Jan	50.5	53.6	50.4	49.7	47.1	49.7

IPM: Index of Purchasing Managers; PI: Production Index; NOI: New Orders Index; EMP: Employed Person Index; SDEL: Supplier Delivery Time Index

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

China estimates the manufacturing index of purchasing managers on the basis of a sample of 820 enterprises (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Chart CIPMMFG provides the manufacturing index of purchasing managers. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013. The index decreased from 51.4 in Nov 2013 to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index moved to 49.6 in Nov 2015.

Chart CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Growth of China’s GDP in IIIQ2015 relative to the same period in 2014 was 6.9 percent and cumulative growth to IIIQ2015 was 6.9 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDP. Secondary industry accounts for 40.6 percent of cumulative GDP in IIIQ2015. In cumulative IIIQ2015, industry accounts for 34.3 percent of GDP and construction for 6.4 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 51.4 percent of cumulative GDP in IIIQ2015 and primary industry for 8.0 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is shifting to lower growth rates with improvement in living standards. The bottom block of Table VC-GDP provides quarter-on-quarter growth rates of GDP and their annual equivalent. China’s GDP growth decelerated significantly from annual equivalent 10.4 percent in IQ2011 to 6.1 percent in IVQ2011 and 7.4 percent in IQ2012, rebounding to 8.7 percent in IIQ2012, 7.4 percent in IIIQ2012 and 8.2 percent in IVQ2012. Annual equivalent growth in IQ2013 eased to 7.4 percent and to 7.4 percent in IIQ2013, rebounding to 8.7 percent in IIIQ2013. Annual equivalent growth was 7.0 percent in IVQ2013, declining to 6.6 percent in IQ2014 and increasing to 7.4 percent in IIQ2014. Annual equivalent growth slowed to 7.8 percent in IIIQ2014 and 7.0 percent in IVQ2014. Growth slowed to annual equivalent 5.3 percent in IQ2015, increasing to 7.4 percent in IIQ2015 and 7.4 percent in IIIQ2015.

Table VC-GDP China, Quarterly Growth of GDP, Current CNY 100 Million and Inflation Adjusted ∆%

Cumulative GDP IIQ2015	Value Current CNY Billion IIIQ2015	Value Current CNY Billion IQ2015 to IIIQ2015	IIIQ2015 Year-on-Year Constant Prices ∆%	Cumulative to IIIQ2015 ∆%
GDP	17,359.5	48,777.4	6.9	6.9
Primary Industry	1,808.5	3,919.5	4.1	3.8
Farming	1,864.4	4,050.5	4.3	3.9
Secondary Industry	6,980.1	19,779.9	5.8	6.0
Industry	5,756.0	16,713.4	5.8	5.9
Construction	1,253.1	3,132.7	5.8	6.5
Tertiary Industry	8,570.9	25,077.9	8.6	8.4
Transport, Storage, Post	794.5	2,247.5	4.7	4.7
Wholesale, Retail Trades	1,654.1	4,769.0	6.1	6.0
Accommodation and Restaurants	311.9	876.2	6.5	6.0
Finance	1,409.1	4,260.7	16.1	17.0
Real Estate	1,040.9	2,984.8	4.9	3.6
Other	3,275.5	9,724.7	9.5	9.0
Growth in Quarter Relative to Prior Quarter	∆% on Prior Quarter		∆% Annual Equivalent
2015
IIIQ2015	1.8		7.4
IIQ2015	1.8		7.4
IQ2015	1.3		5.3
2014
IVQ2014	1.7		7.0
IIIQ2014	1.9		7.8
IIQ2014	1.8		7.4
IQ2014	1.6		6.6
2013
IVQ2013	1.7		7.0
IIIQ2013	2.1		8.7
IIQ2013	1.8		7.4
IQ2013	1.8		7.4
2012
IVQ2012	2.0		8.2
IIIQ2012	1.8		7.4
IIQ2012	2.1		8.7
IQ2012	1.8		7.4
2011
IVQ2011	1.5		6.1
IIIQ2011	1.9		7.8
IIQ2011	2.4		10.0
IQ2011	2.5		10.4

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Cumulative growth of China’s GDP in IIIQ2015 relative to the same period in 2014 was 6.9 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDPA. Secondary industry accounts for 40.6 percent of cumulative GDP in IIIQ2015. In cumulative IIIQ2015, industry accounts for 34.3 percent of GDP and construction for 6.4 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 51.4 percent of cumulative GDP in IIIQ2015 and primary industry for 8.0 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is shifting to lower growth rates with improvement in living standards. GDP growth decelerated from 12.1 percent in IQ2010 and 11.2 percent in IIQ2010 to 7.8 percent in IQ2013, 7.5 percent in IIQ2013 and 7.9 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP grew 7.6 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 1.7 percent relative to IIIQ2013, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent per year. GDP grew 7.3 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.6 percent in IQ2014 that is equivalent to 6.6 percent per year. GP grew 7.4 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is annual equivalent 7.4 percent. In IIIQ2014, GDP grew 7.2 percent relative to a year earlier and 1.9 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is 7.8 percent in annual equivalent. GDP grew 1.7 percent in IVQ2014, which is 7.0 percent in annual equivalent and 7.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2015, GDP grew 1.3 percent, which is equivalent to 5.3 in a year and 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 1.8 percent in IIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.4 percent in a year, and grew 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.8 percent in IIIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.4 percent in a year, and grew 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier.

Table VC-GDPA China, Growth Rate of GDP, ∆% Relative to a Year Earlier and ∆% Relative to Prior Quarter

	IQ2015	IIQQ2015	IIIQ2015
GDP	7.0	7.0	6.9
Primary Industry	3.2	3.5	3.8
Secondary Industry	6.4	6.1	6.0
Tertiary Industry	7.9	8.4	8.4
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.3	1.8	1.8
	IQ 2013	IIQ 2013	IIIQ 2013	IVQ 2013	IQ 2014	IIQ 2014	IIIQ 2014	IVQ 2014
GDP	7.8	7.5	7.9	7.6	7.3	7.4	7.2	7.2
Primary Industry	3.4	3.0	3.4	4.0	3.5	3.9	4.2	4.1
Secondary Industry	7.8	7.6	7.8	7.8	7.3	7.4	7.4	7.3
Tertiary Industry	8.3	8.3	8.4	8.3	7.1	8.0	7.9	8.1
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.8	1.8	2.1	1.7	1.6	1.8	1.9	1.7
	IQ 2011	IIQ 2011	IIIQ 2011	IVQ 2011	IQ  2012	IIQ 2012	IIIQ 2012	IVQ 2012
GDP	10.2	9.9	9.4	8.7	8.0	7.5	7.4	8.0
Primary Industry	3.5	3.2	3.8	4.5	3.8	4.3	4.2	4.5
Secondary Industry	11.1	11.0	10.8	10.6	9.1	8.3	8.1	8.1
Tertiary Industry	9.1	9.2	9.0	8.9	7.5	7.7	7.9	8.1
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	2.5	2.4	1.9	1.5	1.8	2.1	1.8	2.0
	IQ 2010	IIQ 2010	IIIQ 2010	IVQ 2010
GDP	12.1	11.2	10.7	12.1
Primary Industry	3.8	3.6	4.0	3.8
Secondary Industry	14.5	13.3	12.6	14.5
Tertiary Industry	10.5	9.9	9.7	10.5

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart VC-GDP of the National Bureau of Statistics of China provides annual value and growth rates of GDP. China’s GDP growth in 2013 is still high at 7.7 percent but at the lowest rhythm in five years.

Chart VC-GDP, China, Gross Domestic Product, Million Yuan and ∆%, 2009-2013

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart VC-FXR provides China’s foreign exchange reserves. FX reserves grew from $2399.2 billion in 2009 to $3821.3 billion in 2013 driven by high growth of China’s trade surplus.

Chart VC-FXR, China, Foreign Exchange Reserves, 2009-2013

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Chart VC-Trade provides China’s imports and exports. Exports exceeded imports with resulting large trade balance surpluses that increased foreign exchange reserves.

Chart VC-Trade, China, Imports and Exports of Goods, 2009-2013, $100 Million US Dollars

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

The Caixin Flash China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) compiled by Markit (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/883014a121534f51bc42e5060845f727) is mixed. The overall Flash Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI^™ decreased from 47.3 in Aug to 47.0 in Sep, while the Flash Caixin China General Manufacturing Output Index decreased from 46.4 in Aug to 45.7 in Aug, indicating weaker conditions. He Fan, Chief Economist at Caixin Insight Group finds need of fiscal and monetary policy (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/883014a121534f51bc42e5060845f727). The Caixin China General Services PMI^™, compiled by Markit, shows the Caixin Composite Output, combining manufacturing and services, increasing from 49.9 in Oct to 50.5 in Nov (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/5b9b2ddb668248b9b688a508c8760a78). He Fan, Chief Economist at Caixin Insight Group, finds growing stabilizing conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/5b9b2ddb668248b9b688a508c8760a78). The Caixin General Manufacturing PMI^™ increased to 48.6 in Nov from 48.3 in Oct, indicating moderate deterioration in manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/fe9f3e42dd5044388a6d5593d289e84f). He Fan, Chief Economist at Caixin Insight Group, finds stability (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/fe9f3e42dd5044388a6d5593d289e84f). Table CNY provides the country data table for China.

Table CNY, China, Economic Indicators

Price Indexes for Industry	Oct 12-month ∆%: minus 5.9 Sep month ∆%: -0.4 Blog 11/15/15
Consumer Price Index	Oct 12-month ∆%: 1.3 Sep month ∆%: -0.3 Blog 11/15/15
Value Added of Industry	Oct month ∆%: 0.46 Jan-Oct 2015/Jan-Sep 2014 ∆%: 6.1 Earlier Data Blog 4/19/15
GDP Growth Rate	Year IIIQ2015 ∆%: 6.9 Third Quarter 2015 ∆%: 1.8 Quarter IIIQ2015 AE ∆%: 7.4 Blog 10/25/15
Investment in Fixed Assets	Total Jan-Oct 2015 ∆%: 10.2 Real estate development: 2.0 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Retail Sales	Oct month ∆%: 0.83 Jan-Oct 12 month ∆%: NA : 10.6 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Trade Balance	Oct balance $61.64 billion Exports 12M ∆% -6.9 Imports 12M ∆% -18.8 Cumulative Oct 2015: $488.95 billion Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15

Links to blog comments in Table CNY: 11/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-policy-conundrum-recovery.html

10/25/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/10/impact-of-monetary-policy-on-exchange.html

7/26/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/07/valuation-of-risk-financial-assets.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

VD Euro Area. Using calendar and seasonally adjusted data (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of the euro area (19 countries) fell 5.8 percent from IQ2008 to IIQ2009. The GDP of the euro area (19 countries) increased 5.6 percent from IIIQ2009 to IIIQ2015 at the annual equivalent rate of 0.9 percent. The GDP of the euro area (19 countries) is lower by 0.5 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to the pre-recession peak in IQ2008. The GDP of the euro area (18) countries increased at the average yearly rate of 2.3 percent from IQ1999 to IQ2008 while that of the euro area (19 countries) increased at 2.3 percent.

Table VD-EUR provides yearly growth rates of the combined GDP of the members of the European Monetary Union (EMU) or euro area since 1999. Growth was very strong at 3.3 percent in 2006 and 3.1 percent in 2007. The global recession had strong impact with growth of only 0.5 percent in 2008 and decline of 4.5 percent in 2009. Recovery was at lower growth rates of 2.0 percent in 2010 and 1.6 percent in 2011. EUROSTAT estimates growth of GDP of the euro area of minus 0.8 percent in 2012 and minus 0.4 percent in 2013 but 0.9 percent in 2014.

Table VD-EUR, Euro Area, Yearly Percentage Change of Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, Unemployment and GDP ∆%

Year	HICP ∆%	Unemployment %	GDP ∆%
1999	1.2	9.7	2.9
2000	2.2	8.9	3.8
2001	2.4	8.3	2.1
2002	2.3	8.6	0.9
2003	2.1	9.1	0.7
2004	2.2	9.3	2.2
2005	2.2	9.1	1.7
2006	2.2	8.4	3.3
2007	2.2	7.5	3.1
2008	3.3	7.6	0.5
2009	0.3	9.6	-4.5
2010	1.6	10.2	2.0
2011	2.7	10.2	1.6
2012	2.5	11.4	-0.8
2013	1.3	12.0	-0.4
2014	0.4	11.6	0.9

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

The GDP of the euro area in 2013 in current US dollars in the dataset of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is $12,753.7 billion or 17.1 percent of world GDP of $74,699.3 billion (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/weodata/weoselgr.aspx). The sum of the GDP of France $2807.3 billion with the GDP of Germany of $3635.9 billion, Italy of $2071.9 billion and Spain $1358.7 billion is $9873.8 billion or 77.4 percent of total euro area GDP and 13.2 percent of World GDP. The four largest economies account for slightly more than three quarters of economic activity of the euro area. Table VD-EUR1 is constructed with the dataset of EUROSTAT, providing growth rates of the euro area as a whole and of the largest four economies of Germany, France, Italy and Spain annually from 1996 to 2014. The impact of the global recession on the overall euro area economy and on the four largest economies was quite strong. There was sharp contraction in 2009 and growth rates have not rebounded to earlier growth with exception of Germany in 2010 and 2011.

Table VD-EUR1, Euro Area, Real GDP Growth Rate, ∆%

	Euro Area	Germany	France	Italy	Spain
2014	0.8	1.6	0.2	-0.4	1.4
2013	-0.4	0.1	0.7	-1.7	-1.2
2012	-0.8	0.4	0.2	-2.8	-2.1
2011	1.6	3.6	2.1	0.6	-0.6
2010	2.0	4.1	2.0	1.7	0.0
2009	-4.5	-5.6	-2.9	-5.5	-3.6
2008	0.5	1.1	0.2	-1.0	1.1
2007	3.1	3.3	2.4	1.5	3.8
2006	3.3	3.7	2.4	2.0	4.2
2005	1.7	0.7	1.6	0.9	3.7
2004	2.2	1.2	2.8	1.6	3.2
2003	0.7	-0.7	0.8	0.2	3.2
2002	0.9	0.0	1.1	0.3	2.9
2001	2.1	1.7	2.0	1.8	4.0
2000	3.8	3.0	3.9	3.7	5.3
1999	2.9	2.0	3.4	1.6	4.5
1998	2.9	2.0	3.6	1.4	4.3
Average 1999-2014	1.1	1.2	1.6	1.3	2.4
1997	2.6	1.8	2.3	1.8	3.7
1996	1.6	0.8	1.4	1.3	2.7

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

The Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index of the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI^®, combining activity in manufacturing and services, increased from 53.9 in Oct to 54.4 in Nov (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/3019b33acc6d4616bce6295642482c5e). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds that the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI index suggests GDP quarterly growth at around 0.4 percent in IVQ2015 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/3019b33acc6d4616bce6295642482c5e). The Markit Eurozone PMI^® Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing activity with close association with GDP increased from 53.9 in Oct to 54.2 in Nov (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/40378a2fbb654b3babda7675733e4f85). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds potential for growth of 0.4 percent in IVQ2015 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/e49c7891e1be4f2c878816721482b7a5). The Markit Eurozone Services Business Activity Index increased from 54.1 in Oct to 54.2 in Nov (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/40378a2fbb654b3babda7675733e4f85). The Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI^® increased from 52.3 in Oct to 52.8 in Nov (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/e561485ba67b48b785e5fd53e4debc78). New export orders increased. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds industrial growth in the euro area at annualized rate of 2 percent (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/e561485ba67b48b785e5fd53e4debc78). Table EUR provides the data table for the euro area.

Table EUR, Euro Area Economic Indicators

GDP	IIIQ2015 ∆% 0.3; IIIQ2015/IIIQ2014 ∆% 1.6 Blog 9/13/15 11/22/15
Unemployment	Sep 2015: 10.7 % unemployment rate; Oct 2015: 17.240 million unemployed Blog 12/6/15
HICP	Oct month ∆%: 0.1 12 months Oct ∆%: 0.1 Blog 11/22/15
Producer Prices	Euro Zone industrial producer prices Oct ∆%: -0.3 Oct 12-month ∆%: -3.1 Blog 12/6/15
Industrial Production	Sep Month ∆%: -0.3; 12 months ∆%: 0.9 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Retail Sales	Oct month ∆%: -0.1 Oct 12 months ∆%: 2.5 Earlier Data: Blog 3/15/15
Confidence and Economic Sentiment Indicator	Sentiment 106.1 Nov 2015 Consumer minus 5.9 Nov 2015 Earlier Data: Blog 4/5/15
Trade	Jan-Sep 2015/Jan-Sep 2014 Exports ∆%: 6.1 Imports ∆%: 2.1 Sep 2015 12-month Exports ∆% 0.9 Imports ∆% -1.0 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15

Links to blog comments in Table EUR: 11/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-liftoff-followed-by.html

11/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-increase-considered.html

11/8/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/live-possibility-of-interest-rates.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

EUROSTAT estimates the rate of unemployment in the euro area at 10.7 percent in

Oct 2015, as shown in Table VD-1. The number of unemployed in Oct 2015 was 17.240 million, which was 1.302 million lower than 18.542 million in Oct 2014. The rate of unemployment fell from 11.5 percent in Oct 2014 to 10.7 percent in Oct 2015.

Table VD-1, Euro Area, Unemployment Rate and Number of Unemployed, % and Millions, SA 

	Unemployment Rate %	Number Unemployed Millions
Oct 2015	10.7	17.240
Sep	10.8	17.253
Aug	10.8	17.358
Jul	10.9	17.417
Jun	11.0	17.689
May	11.0	17.696
Apr	11.1	17.747
Mar	11.1	17.874
Feb	11.2	17.923
Jan	11.2	18.048
Dec 2014	11.4	18.233
Nov	11.5	18.479
Oct	11.5	18.542
Sep	11.6	18.573
Aug	11.6	18.551
Jul	11.6	18.677
Jun	11.5	18.501
May	11.6	18.625
Apr	11.7	18.669
Mar	11.7	18.801
Feb	11.8	18.913
Jan	11.9	19.010
Dec 2013	11.9	18.971
Nov	11.9	19.064
Oct	11.9	19.115
Sep	12.0	19.291
Aug	12.0	19.281
Jul	12.0	19.298
Jun	12.0	19.305
May	12.1	19.331
Apr	12.1	19.322
Mar	12.1	19.294
Feb	12.0	19.281
Jan	12.0	19.230
Dec 2012	11.9	19.013
Nov	11.8	18.885
Oct	11.7	18.767
Sep	11.6	18.511
Aug	11.5	18.379
Jul	11.5	18.337
Jun	11.4	18.261
May	11.3	18.053
Apr	11.2	17.913
Mar	11.1	17.640
Feb	10.9	17.371
Jan	10.7	17.123
Dec 2011	10.7	17.047
Nov	10.6	16.900
Oct	10.5	16.651
Sep	10.4	16.495
Aug	10.2	16.258
Jul	10.1	16.111
Jun	10.0	15.890
May	10.0	15.831
Apr	9.9	15.693
Mar	10.0	15.782
Feb	10.0	15.811
Jan	10.1	15.913
Dec 2010	10.1	16.005

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

Table VD-2 shows the disparity in rates of unemployment in the euro area with 10.7 percent for the region as a whole and 17.240 million unemployed but 4.5 percent in Germany and 1.868 million unemployed. At the other extreme is Spain with rate of unemployment of 21.6 percent and 4.953 million unemployed. The rate of unemployment of the European Union in Oct 2015 is 9.3 percent with 22.497 million unemployed.

Table VD-2, Unemployed and Unemployment Rate in Countries and Regions, Millions and %

Oct 2015	Unemployment Rate %	Unemployed Millions
Euro Zone	10.7	17.240
Germany	4.5	1.868
France	10.8	3.196
Netherlands	6.9	0.616
Finland	9.5	0.259
Portugal	12.4	0.633
Ireland	8.9	0.192
Italy	11.5	2.927
Greece	24.6*	1.180*
Spain	21.6	4.953
Belgium	8.7	0.429
European Union	9.3	22.497

*Aug 2015

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

Chart VD-1 of EUROSTAT illustrates the wide difference in rates of unemployment in countries and regions.

Chart VD-1, Unemployment Rate in Various Countries and Regions

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

VE Germany. Table VE-DE provides yearly growth rates of the German economy from 1971 to 2014, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked. Germany’s GDP fell 5.6 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.1 percent in 2008. Recovery has been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.1 percent in 2010, 3.6 percent in 2011 and 0.4 percent in 2012. Growth decelerated to 0.1 percent in 2013, increasing to 1.6 percent in 2014.

The Federal Statistical Agency of Germany analyzes the fall and recovery of the German economy (http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Content/Statistics/VolkswirtschaftlicheGesamtrechnungen/Inlandsprodukt/Aktuell,templateId=renderPrint.psml):

“The German economy again grew strongly in 2011. The price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.0% compared with the previous year. Accordingly, the catching-up process of the German economy continued during the second year after the economic crisis. In the course of 2011, the price-adjusted GDP again exceeded its pre-crisis level. The economic recovery occurred mainly in the first half of 2011. In 2009, Germany experienced the most serious post-war recession, when GDP suffered a historic decline of 5.1%. The year 2010 was characterised by a rapid economic recovery (+3.7%).”

Table VE-DE, Germany, GDP ∆% on Prior Year

	Price Adjusted Chain-Linked	Price- and Calendar-Adjusted Chain Linked
Average ∆% 1991-2014	1.3
Average ∆% 1991-1999	1.5
Average ∆% 2000-2007	1.4
Average ∆% 2003-2007	2.2
Average ∆% 2007-2014	0.7
Average ∆% 2009-2014	2.0
2014	1.6	1.6
2013	0.3	0.4
2012	0.4	0.6
2011	3.7	3.7
2010	4.1	3.9
2009	-5.6	-5.6
2008	1.1	0.8
2007	3.3	3.4
2006	3.7	3.9
2005	0.7	0.9
2004	1.2	0.7
2003	-0.7	-0.7
2002	0.0	0.0
2001	1.7	1.8
2000	3.0	3.2
1999	2.0	1.9
1998	2.0	1.8
1997	1.8	1.9
1996	0.8	0.9
1995	1.7	1.8
1994	2.5	2.5
1993	-1.0	-1.0
1992	1.9	1.5
1991	5.1	5.2
1990	5.3	5.5
1989	3.9	4.1
1988	3.7	3.4
1987	1.4	1.3
1986	2.3	2.3
1985	2.3	2.6
1984	2.8	2.9
1983	1.6	1.5
1982	-0.4	-0.5
1981	0.5	0.6
1980	1.4	1.3
1979	4.2	4.3
1978	3.0	3.1
1977	3.3	3.5
1976	4.9	4.5
1975	-0.9	-0.9
1974	0.9	1.0
1973	4.8	5.0
1972	4.3	4.3
1971	3.1	3.0
1970	NA	NA

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/NationalAccounts.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/DomesticProduct/CurrentRevision.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Methods/NationalAccountRevision/Revision2014_BackgroundPaper.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/02/PE14_048_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/08/PE13_278_811.html https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/11/PE13_381_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/01/PE14_016_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/DE/PresseService/Presse/Pressekonferenzen/2014/BIP2013/Pressebroschuere_BIP2013.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/05/PE14_167_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/09/PE14_306_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/11/PE14_401_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_048_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_61_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/05/PE15_173_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/05/PE15_187_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/08/PE15_293_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/08/PE15_305_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/11/PE15_419_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/11/PE15_430_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/DomesticProduct/DomesticProduct.html

The Flash Germany Composite Output Index of the Markit Flash Germany PMI^®, combining manufacturing and services, increased from 54.2 in Oct to 54.9 in Nov. The index of manufacturing output reached 53.5 in Nov, decreasing from 53.7 in Oct, while the index of services increased to 55.6 in Nov from 54.5 in Oct. The overall Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI^® increased from 52.1 in Oct to 52.6 in Nov (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/3eed954233744346bd1cf349fac58f96). New orders in manufacturing increased. Oliver Kolodseike, Economist at Markit, finds continuing improvement of the services sector of Germany (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/3eed954233744346bd1cf349fac58f96). The Markit Germany Composite Output Index of the Markit Germany Services PMI^®, combining manufacturing and services with close association with Germany’s GDP, increased from 54.2 in Oct to 55.2 in Nov (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/7d3b0715b21b45b9849c68779920bb97). Oliver Kolodseike, Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds continuing growth of the private sector of Germany (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/7d3b0715b21b45b9849c68779920bb97). The Germany Services Business Activity Index increased from 54.5 in Oct to 55.6 in Nov (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/7d3b0715b21b45b9849c68779920bb97). The Markit/BME Germany Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®), showing close association with Germany’s manufacturing conditions, increased from 52.1 in Oct to 52.9 in

Nov (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/b2a5059df17a479ea9d2607da926a4cd). New export orders increased. Oliver Kolodseike, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds improvement in manufacturing with growth of exports (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/b2a5059df17a479ea9d2607da926a4cd).Table DE provides the country data table for Germany.

Table DE, Germany, Economic Indicators

GDP	IIIQ2015 0.3 ∆%; IIIQ2015/IIIQ2014 ∆% 1.8 2014/2013: 1.6% GDP ∆% 1970-2014 Blog 8/26/12 5/27/12 11/25/12 2/24/13 5/19/13 5/26/13 8/18/13 8/25/13 11/17/13 11/24/13 1/26/14 2/16/14 3/2/14 5/18/14 5/25/14 8/17/14 9/7/14 11/16/14 11/30/14 2/15/15 3/1/15 5/17/15 5/24/15 8/16/15 8/30/15 11/22/15 11/29/15
Consumer Price Index	Oct month NSA ∆%: 0.0 Oct 12-month NSA ∆%: 0.3 Blog 11/15/15
Producer Price Index	Oct month ∆%: -0.4 NSA, minus 0.3 CSA 12-month NSA ∆%: -2.3 Blog 11/22/15
Industrial Production	MFG Oct month CSA ∆%: 1.8 12-month NSA: -1.2 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Machine Orders	MFG Oct month ∆%: 1.8 Oct 12-month ∆%: -1.2 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Retail Sales	Oct Month ∆% -0.4 Sep 0.0 12-Month Oct % 2.1 Sep 3.5 Earlier Data: Blog 4/5/15
Employment Report	Unemployment Rate SA Oct 4.5% Blog 12/6/15
Trade Balance	Exports Sep 12-month NSA ∆%: 4.4 Imports Sep 12 months NSA ∆%: 3.9 Exports Sep month CSA ∆%: minus 2.6; Imports Sep month CSA 3.6 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15

Links to blog comments in Table DE: 11/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/dollar-revaluation-constraining.html

11/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-liftoff-followed-by.html

11/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-policy-conundrum-recovery.html

11/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-increase-considered.html

08/30/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/fluctuations-of-global-financial.html

08/16/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/exchange-rate-and-financial-asset.html

5/24/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/interest-rate-policy-and-dollar.html

5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

9/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/competitive-monetary-policy-and.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

1/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/01/capital-flows-exchange-rates-and.html

11/24/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html

8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

Germany’s labor market continues to show strength not found in most of the advanced economies, as shown in Table VE-1A. The number unemployed, not seasonally adjusted, decreased from 2.02 million in Oct 2014 to 1.86 million in Oct 2015, or 7.9 percent, while the unemployment rate decreased from 4.8 percent in Oct 2014 to 4.4 percent in Oct 2015. The number of persons in employment, not seasonally adjusted, increased from 39.93 million in Oct 2014 to 40.19 million in Oct 2015, or 0.7 percent, while the employment rate increased from 64.9 percent in Oct 2014 to 65.4 percent in Oct 2015. The number unemployed, seasonally adjusted, decreased from 1.88 million in Sep 2015 to 1.87 million in Oct 2015, while the unemployment rate did not change from 4.5 percent in Sep 2015 to 4.5 percent in Oct 2015. The number of persons in employment, seasonally adjusted, increased from 40.0 million in Sep 2015 to 40.04 million in Oct 2015, or 0.1 percent. The employment rate seasonally did not change from 65.1 in Sep 2015 to 65.1 in Oct 2015.

Table VE-1A, Germany, Unemployment Labor Force Survey

	Oct 2015	Sep 2015	Oct 2014
NSA
Number Unemployed Millions	1.86 ∆% Oct 2015 /Sep 2015: 2.2 ∆% Oct 2015/Oct 2014: -7.9	1.82	2.02
% Rate Unemployed	4.4	4.3	4.8
Persons in Employment Millions	40.19 ∆% Oct 2015/ Sep 2015: -0.5 ∆% Oct 2015/Oct 2014: 0.7	40.38	39.93
Employment Rate	65.4	65.7	64.9
SA
Number Unemployed Millions	1.87 ∆% Oct 2015/ Sep  2015: -0.5 ∆% Oct 2015/Oct 2014: –10.1	1.88	2.08
% Rate Unemployed	4.5	4.5	5.0
Persons in Employment Millions	40.04 ∆% Oct 2015/ Sep 2015: 0.1 ∆% Oct 2015/Oct 2014: 0.4	40.00	39.88
Employment Rate	65.1	65.1	64.9

NSA: not seasonally adjusted; SA: seasonally adjusted

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/12/PE15_442_132.html

The unemployment rate in Germany as percent of the labor force in Table VE-2A stood at 6.5 percent in Sep, Oct and Nov 2012, increasing to 6.7 percent in Dec 2012, 7.4 percent in Jan 2013, 7.3 in Mar 2013 and 7.1 percent in Apr 2013. The unemployment rate fell to 6.8 percent in May 2013 and 6.6 percent in Jun 2013 and rose to 6.8 percent in Jul-Aug 2013. The rate fell to 6.6 percent in Sep 2013 and 6.5 percent in Oct 2013 and Nov 2013. The unemployment rate increased to 6.7 percent in Dec 2013 and 7.3 percent in Jan 2013. The unemployment rate reached 7.3 percent in Feb 2014 and 7.1 percent in Mar 2014. The unemployment rate fell to 6.8 percent in Apr 2014 and 6.6 percent in May 2014. The unemployment rate fell to 6.5 percent in Jun 2014, increasing to 6.6 percent in Jun 2014 and 6.7 percent in Aug 2014. The unemployment rate fell to 6.5 percent in Sep 2014 and 6.3 percent in Oct 2014 and Nov 2014. The unemployment rate increase to 6.4 percent in Dec 2014 and 7.0 percent in Jan 2015, falling to 6.9 percent in Feb 2015 and 6.5 percent in Apr 2015. The unemployment rate fell to 6.3 percent in May 2015 and 6.2 percent in Jun 2015. The unemployment rate increased to 6.3 percent in Jul 2015 and 6.4 percent in Aug 2015. The unemployment rate fell from 6.4 in Aug 2015 to 6.0 percent in Nov 2015. The rate is much lower than 11.1 percent in 2005 and 9.6 percent in 2006.

Table VE-2A, Germany, Unemployment Rate in Percent of Labor Force

Nov 2015	6.0
Oct	6.0
Sep	6.2
Aug	6.4
Jul	6.3
Jun	6.2
May	6.3
Apr	6.5
Mar	6.8
Feb	6.9
Jan	7.0
Dec 2014	6.4
Nov	6.3
Oct	6.3
Sep	6.5
Aug	6.7
Jul	6.6
Jun	6.5
May	6.6
Apr	6.8
Mar	7.1
Feb	7.3
Jan	7.3
Dec 2013	6.7
Nov	6.5
Oct	6.5
Sep	6.6
Aug	6.8
Jul	6.8
Jun	6.6
May	6.8
Apr	7.1
Mar	7.3
Feb	7.4
Jan	7.4
Dec 2012	6.7
Nov	6.5
Oct	6.5
Sep	6.5
Aug	6.8
Jul	6.8
Jun	6.6
May	6.7
Apr	7.0
Mar	7.2
Feb	7.4
Jan	7.3
Dec 2011	6.6
Nov	6.4
Oct	6.5
Sep	6.6
Aug	7.0
Jul	7.0
Jun	6.9
May	7.0
Apr	7.3
Mar	7.6
Feb	7.9
Jan	7.9
Dec 2010	7.1
Dec 2009	7.8
Dec 2008	7.4
Dec 2007	8.1
Dec 2006	9.6
Dec 2005	11.1

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-1A of Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland, or Federal Statistical Office of Germany, shows the long-term decline of the rate of unemployment in Germany from more than 12 percent in early 2005 to 6.6 percent in Dec 2011, increasing to 6.7 percent in Dec 2012, 6.8 percent in Apr 2013 and 6.6 percent in May 2013. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 6.8 percent in Aug 2013, falling to 6.6 percent in Sep 2013 and 6.5 percent in Oct 2013. The rate remained at 6.5 percent in Nov 2013, increasing to 6.7 percent in Dec 2013 and 7.3 in Jan 2014. The rate remained at 7.3 percent in Feb 2014, declining to 7.1 percent in Mar 2014. The rate fell to 6.8 percent in Apr 2014, 6.6 percent in May 2014 and 6.5 percent in Jun 2014. The rate increased to 6.6 percent in Jul 2014 and 6.7 percent in Aug 2014, falling to 6.5 percent in Sep 2014. The rate fell to 6.3 percent in Oct 2014 and 6.3 percent in Nov 2014, increasing to 6.4 percent in Dec 2014. The rate increased to 7.0 percent in Jan 2015, falling to 6.9 percent in Feb 2015 and 6.8 percent in Mar 2015. The unemployment rate fell to 6.5 percent in Apr 2015 and 6.3 percent in May 2015. The unemployment rate fell to 6.2 percent in Jun 2015, increasing to 6.3 percent in Jul 2015 and 6.4 percent in Aug 2015. The unemployment rate fell to 6.2 percent in Sep 2015 and 6.0 percent in Oct 2015. The unemployment rate stabilized at 9.0 percent in Nov 2015.

Chart VE-1A, Germany, Unemployment Rate, Unadjusted, Percent

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

VF France. Table VF-FR provides growth rates of GDP of France with the estimates of Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE). The long-term rate of GDP growth of France from IVQ1949 to IVQ2014 is quite high at 3.2 percent. France’s growth rates were quite high in the four decades of the 1950s, 1960, 1970s and 1980s with an average growth rate of 4.0 percent compounding the average rates in the decades and discounting to one decade. The growth impulse diminished with 2.0 percent in the 1990s and 1.8 percent from 2000 to 2007. The average growth rate from 2000 to 2014, using fourth quarter data, is 1.0 percent because of the sharp impact of the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. Cobet and Wilson (2002) provide estimates of output per hour and unit labor costs in national currency and US dollars for the US, Japan and Germany from 1950 to 2000 (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 137-44). The average yearly rate of productivity change from 1950 to 2000 was 2.9 percent in the US, 6.3 percent for Japan and 4.7 percent for Germany while unit labor costs in USD increased at 2.6 percent in the US, 4.7 percent in Japan and 4.3 percent in Germany. From 1995 to 2000, output per hour increased at the average yearly rate of 4.6 percent in the US, 3.9 percent in Japan and 2.6 percent in Germany while unit labor costs in US fell at minus 0.7 percent in the US, 4.3 percent in Japan and 7.5 percent in Germany. There was increase in productivity growth in the G7 in Japan and France in the second half of the 1990s but significantly lower than the acceleration of 1.3 percentage points per year in the US. Lucas (2011May) compares growth of the G7 economies (US, UK, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Canada) and Spain, finding that catch-up growth with earlier rates for the US and UK stalled in the 1970s.

Table VF-FR, France, Average Growth Rates of GDP Fourth Quarter, 1949-2014

Period	Average ∆%
1949-2014	3.2
2007-2015*	0.4
2007-2014	0.3
2000-2014	1.0
2000-2013	1.1
2000-2007	1.8
1990-1999	2.0
1980-1989	2.6
1970-1979	3.7
1960-1969	5.7
1950-1959	4.2

*IVQ2007 to IIIQ2015

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=26&date=20151113

The Markit Flash France Composite Output Index decreased from 52.6 in Oct to 51.3 in Nov (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/c83a5e19ffd74331b3989cdb34b59f2d) Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds moderate growth (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/c83a5e19ffd74331b3989cdb34b59f2d). The Markit France Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing with close association with French GDP, decreased from 52.6 in Oct to 51.0 in Nov, indicating expansion at faster pace (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/6f61ab84aba74163b78febae27f15f76). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the France Services PMI^®, finds improving data on business activity but moderate GDP growth (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/6f61ab84aba74163b78febae27f15f76). The Markit France Services Activity index decreased from 52.7 in Oct to 51.0 in Nov (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/6f61ab84aba74163b78febae27f15f76). The Markit France Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^® did not change to 50.6 in Nov from 50.6 in Oct (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/3320a33f38154f0d9a58cdefb74a9b7f). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the France Manufacturing PMI^®, finds stagnating demand in manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/3320a33f38154f0d9a58cdefb74a9b7f). Table FR provides the country data table for France.

Table FR, France, Economic Indicators

CPI	Oct month ∆% 0.1 12 months ∆%: 0.1 11/15/15
PPI	Oct month ∆%: 0.1 Sep 12 months ∆%: -2.5 Blog 11/29/15
GDP Growth	IIIQ2015/IIQ2015 ∆%: 0.3 IIIQ2015/IIIQ2014 ∆%: 1.2 Blog 3/31/13 5/19/12 6/30/13 9/29/13 11/17/13 12/29/13 2/16/14 4/6/14 5/18/14 6/29/14 8/17/14 9/28/14 11/16/14 12/28/14 2/15/15 3/29/15 5/17/15 6/28/15 8/16/15 9/27/15 11/15/15
Industrial Production	Sep ∆%: Manufacturing 0.0 12-Month ∆%: 0.6 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Consumer Spending	Manufactured Goods Oct ∆%: -0.7 Oct 12-Month Manufactured Goods ∆%: 1.6 Earlier Data: Blog 4/5/15
Employment	Unemployment Rate: IIIQ2015 10.2% Blog 12/6/15
Trade Balance	Sep Exports ∆%: month -0.6, 12 months 1.2 Imports ∆%: month 0.5, 12 months -1.8 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Confidence Indicators	Historical average 100 Nov Mfg Business Climate 102.0 Earlier Data: Blog 3/29/15

Links to blog comments in Table FR: 11/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/dollar-revaluation-constraining.html

11/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-policy-conundrum-recovery.html

11/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-increase-considered.html

9/27/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/monetary-policy-designed-on-measurable.html

9/6/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what.html

08/16/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/exchange-rate-and-financial-asset.html

6/28/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/international-valuations-of-financial.html

5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

9/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

12/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/collapse-of-united-states-dynamism-of.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

6/30/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/tapering-quantitative-easing-policy-and.html

5/19/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/word-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

The number of unemployed in France rose from 1.989 million in IVQ2007, for a rate of unemployment of 7.2 percent, to 2.941 million in IIIQ2015, for a rate of unemployment of 10.2 percent, as shown in Table VF-1. At the same time, the rate of employment fell from 64.7 percent in IVQ2007 to 64.2 percent in IIIQ2015. 

Table VF-1, France, Metropolitan France, Employment Rate, Unemployed and Unemployment Rate, Millions and %

	Unemployed Millions	Unemployed Percent	Employment Rate
IIIQ2015	2.941	10.2	64.2
IIQ2015	2.866	10.0	64.2
IQ2015	2.857	10.0	64.2
IVQ2014	2.900	10.1	64.3
IIIQ2014	2.863	10.0	64.2
IIQ2014	2.788	9.7	64.3
IQ2014	2.799	9.8	64.3
IVQ2013	2.773	9.7	64.1
IIIQ2013	2.839	9.9	64.2
IIQ2013	2.852	10.0	64.0
IQ2013	2.837	9.9	63.9
IVQ2012	2.783	9.7	64.1
IIIQ2012	2.677	9.4	64.0
IIQ2012	2.647	9.3	64.0
IQ2012	2.584	9.1	63.9
IVQ2011	2.549	9.0	63.9
IIIQ2011	2.497	8.8	63.9
IIQ2011	2.447	8.7	63.9
IQ2011	2.466	8.7	63.9
IVQ2010	2.489	8.8	63.9
IIIQ2010	2.493	8.8	64.0
IIQ2010	2.501	8.9	64.0
IQ2010	2.535	9.0	64.0
IVQ2009	2.585	9.2	63.8
IIIQ2009	2.473	8.8	64.0
IIQ2009	2.480	8.8	64.2
IQ2009	2.300	8.2	64.5
IVQ2008	2.077	7.4	64.9
IIIQ2008	1.979	7.1	64.9
IIQ2008	1.937	7.0	64.9
IQ2008	1.887	6.8	65.0
IV2007	1.989	7.2	64.7
IIIQ2007	2.119	7.6	64.4
IIQ2007	2.154	7.8	64.2
IQ2007	2.232	8.1	64.0
IVQ2006	2.210	8.0	64.0
IVQ2005	2.380	8.7	63.6
IVQ2004	2.325	8.5	63.8
IVQ2003	2.269	8.4	63.8
IVQ2002	2.045	7.6
IVQ2001	1.974	7.5
IVQ2000	2.017	7.7
IVQ1999	2.363	9.1
IVQ1995	2.441	9.6
IVQ1990	1.873	7.6
IVQ1985	2.086	8.5
IVQ1980	1.272	5.3
IVQ1975	0.812	3.6

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=14&date=20151203

Chart VF-1 of the Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques of France provides an excellent view of the unemployment rate in France. The rate of unemployment rose from 1975 to 1987 and then fell sharply. The rate of unemployment increased in the recession of the early 1990s followed by sharp decline. The rate of unemployment increased in the recession of the early 2000s and fell again during the expansion. The rate of unemployment rose sharply during the global recession with initial recovery followed by another increase, stability and new increase.

Chart VF-1, Metropolitan France, ILO Definition Unemployment Rate, IQ1975-IIIQ2015

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=14&date=20151203

Chart VF-2 of the Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques of France provides an excellent view of the unemployment rate in France. The rate of unemployment rose from 2003 to 2006 and then fell sharply in 2007. The global recession caused sharp increase in the French rate of unemployment that has declined from the peak, stabilized at a high level and is climbing/stabilizing and climbing again.

Chart VF-2, France, Unemployment Rate International Labor Organization Criterion, Seasonally Adjusted Average over Quarter, Percent

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=14&date=20151203

VG Italy. Table VG-IT provides revised percentage changes of GDP in Italy of quarter on prior quarter and quarter on same quarter a year earlier. In IIIQ2015, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2015 and 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2014 and fell 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 and fell 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.2 percent in IIQ2014 and declined 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy decreased 0.1 percent in IQ2014 and fell 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2013 and fell 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2013 and fell 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IIQ2013, continuing eight consecutive quarterly declines, and fell 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.8 percent in IQ2013 and declined 2.5 percent relative to IQ2012. GDP had been growing during six consecutive quarters but at very low rates from IQ2010 to IIQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell in eight consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IIQ2013 at increasingly higher rates of contraction from 0.5 percent in IIIQ2011 to 1.0 percent in IVQ2011, 1.0 percent in IQ2012, 0.7 percent in IIQ2012 and 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012. The pace of decline accelerated to minus 0.5 percent in IVQ2012 and minus 0.8 percent in IQ2013. GDP contracted cumulatively 5.1 percent in eight consecutive quarterly contractions from IIIQ2011 to IIQ2013 at the annual equivalent rate of minus 2.6 percent. The total contraction in the 12 quarters including IQ2014, IIQ2014, IIIQ2014 and IVQ2014 accumulates to 5.6 percent. The yearly rate has fallen from 2.3 percent in IVQ2010 to minus 2.7 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.5 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.0 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.4 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 1.0 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.3 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and fell 0.3 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.4 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and fell 0.4 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of Italy in IIIQ2015 is lower by 8.9 percent relative to IQ2008. The fiscal adjustment of Italy is significantly more difficult with the economy not growing especially on the prospects of increasing government revenue. The strategy is for reforms to improve productivity, facilitating future fiscal consolidation.

Table VG-IT, Italy, GDP ∆%

	Quarter ∆% Relative to Preceding Quarter	Quarter ∆% Relative to Same Quarter Year Earlier
IIIQ2015	0.2	0.8
IIQ2015	0.3	0.6
IQ2015	0.4	0.1
IVQ2014	-0.1	-0.4
IIIQ2014	-0.1	-0.4
IIQ2014	-0.2	-0.3
IQ2014	-0.1	-0.3
IVQ2013	0.0	-1.0
IIIQ2013	0.0	-1.4
IIQ2013	-0.2	-2.0
IQ2013	-0.8	-2.5
IVQ2012	-0.5	-2.7
IIIQ2012	-0.5	-3.2
IIQ2012	-0.7	-3.2
IQ2012	-1.0	-2.4
IVQ2011	-1.0	-1.0
IIIQ2011	-0.5	0.4
IIQ2011	0.2	1.5
IQ2011	0.3	2.1
IVQ2010	0.4	2.3
IIIQ2010	0.5	1.8
IIQ2010	0.7	1.9
IQ2010	0.5	0.7
IVQ2009	-0.1	-3.5
IIIQ2009	0.4	-5.0
IIQ2009	-0.3	-6.6
IQ2009	-3.5	-6.9
IVQ2008	-1.6	-3.0
IIIQ2008	-1.3	-1.9
IIQ2008	-0.5	-0.2
IQ2008	0.5	0.5
IV2007	-0.4	0.1
IIIQ2007	0.3	1.7
IIQ2007	0.2	2.0
IQ2007	0.0	2.4

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/175168

The Markit/ADACI Business Activity Index did not change from 53.4 in Oct to 53.4 in Nov (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/690d9d99cc1f4f16b9b2384277adc1ac). Phil Smith, Economist at Markit and author of the Italy Services PMI^®, finds expansion of private sector activity with GDP growth in IVQ2015 at around 0.3 percent (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/690d9d99cc1f4f16b9b2384277adc1ac). The Markit/ADACI Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®), increased from 54.1 in Oct to 54.9 in Nov (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/82a4f23c876848cca65e76b08ccd1313). New export orders continued to increase. Phil Smith, Economist at Markit and author of the Italian Manufacturing PMI^®, finds growth in manufacturing (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/82a4f23c876848cca65e76b08ccd1313). Table IT provides the country data table for Italy.

Table IT, Italy, Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index	Nov month ∆%: -0.4 Nov 12-month ∆%: 0.1 Blog 12/6/15
Producer Price Index	Oct month ∆%: -0.1 Oct 12-month ∆%: -3.5 Blog 12/6/15
GDP Growth	IIIQ2015/IIQ2015 SA ∆%: 0.2 IIIQ2015/IIIQ2014 NSA ∆%: 0.8 Blog 3/17/13 6/16/13 8/11/13 9/15/13 11/17/13 12/15/13 2/16/14 3/16/14 5/18/14 6/15/14 8/10/14 8/31/14 10/19/14 11/16/14 12/7/14 2/15/15 3/15/15 5/17/15 5/31/15 8/16/15 9/6/15 11/15/15 12/6/15
Labor Report	Oct 2015 Participation rate 63.8% Employment ratio 56.3% Unemployment rate 11.5% Youth Unemployment 39.8% Blog 12/6/15
Industrial Production	Sep month ∆%: 0.2 12 months CA ∆%: 1.7 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Retail Sales	Sep month ∆%: -0.1 Sep 12-month ∆%: 1.5 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15
Business Confidence	Mfg Nov 104.6, Oct 105.7 Construction Nov 121.4, Oct 119.8 Earlier Data: Blog 4/5/15
Trade Balance	Balance Sep SA €3552 million Exports Sep month SA ∆%: 1.6; Imports month ∆%: 1.1 Exports 12 months Sep NSA ∆%: 1.4 Imports 12 months NSA ∆%: 0.7 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15

Links to blog comments in Table IT: 11/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-policy-conundrum-recovery.html

11/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-increase-considered.html

9/6/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what.html

08/16/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/exchange-rate-and-financial-asset.html

5/31/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/dollar-revaluation-squeezing-corporate.html

5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

12/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/financial-risks-twenty-six-million.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

10/19/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/imf-view-squeeze-of-economic-activity.html

8/31/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitical-and-financial-risks.html

8/10/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/volatility-of-valuations-of-risk_10.html

6/15/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financialgeopolitical-risks-recovery.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

8/11/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/recovery-without-hiring-loss-of-full.html

6/16/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/recovery-without-hiring-seven-million.html

3/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

Table VG-1 provides revised percentage changes of GDP in Italy of quarter on prior quarter and quarter on same quarter a year earlier. In IIIQ2015, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2015 and 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2014 and fell 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 and fell 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.2 percent in IIQ2014 and declined 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy decreased 0.1 percent in IQ2014 and fell 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2013 and fell 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2013 and fell 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IIQ2013, continuing eight consecutive quarterly declines, and fell 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.8 percent in IQ2013 and declined 2.5 percent relative to IQ2012. GDP had been growing during six consecutive quarters but at very low rates from IQ2010 to IIQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell in eight consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IIQ2013 at increasingly higher rates of contraction from 0.5 percent in IIIQ2011 to 1.0 percent in IVQ2011, 1.0 percent in IQ2012, 0.7 percent in IIQ2012 and 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012. The pace of decline accelerated to minus 0.5 percent in IVQ2012 and minus 0.8 percent in IQ2013. GDP contracted cumulatively 5.1 percent in eight consecutive quarterly contractions from IIIQ2011 to IIQ2013 at the annual equivalent rate of minus 2.6 percent. The total contraction in the 12 quarters including IQ2014, IIQ2014, IIIQ2014 and IVQ2014 accumulates to 5.6 percent. The yearly rate has fallen from 2.3 percent in IVQ2010 to minus 2.7 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.5 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.0 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.4 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 1.0 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.3 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and fell 0.3 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.4 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and fell 0.4 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of Italy in IIIQ2015 is lower by 8.9 percent relative to IQ2008. The fiscal adjustment of Italy is significantly more difficult with the economy not growing especially on the prospects of increasing government revenue. The strategy is for reforms to improve productivity, facilitating future fiscal consolidation.

Table VG-1, Italy, GDP ∆%

	Quarter ∆% Relative to Preceding Quarter	Quarter ∆% Relative to Same Quarter Year Earlier
IIIQ2015	0.2	0.8
IIQ2015	0.3	0.6
IQ2015	0.4	0.1
IVQ2014	-0.1	-0.4
IIIQ2014	-0.1	-0.4
IIQ2014	-0.2	-0.3
IQ2014	-0.1	-0.3
IVQ2013	0.0	-1.0
IIIQ2013	0.0	-1.4
IIQ2013	-0.2	-2.0
IQ2013	-0.8	-2.5
IVQ2012	-0.5	-2.7
IIIQ2012	-0.5	-3.2
IIQ2012	-0.7	-3.2
IQ2012	-1.0	-2.4
IVQ2011	-1.0	-1.0
IIIQ2011	-0.5	0.4
IIQ2011	0.2	1.5
IQ2011	0.3	2.1
IVQ2010	0.4	2.3
IIIQ2010	0.5	1.8
IIQ2010	0.7	1.9
IQ2010	0.5	0.7
IVQ2009	-0.1	-3.5
IIIQ2009	0.4	-5.0
IIQ2009	-0.3	-6.6
IQ2009	-3.5	-6.9
IVQ2008	-1.6	-3.0
IIIQ2008	-1.3	-1.9
IIQ2008	-0.5	-0.2
IQ2008	0.5	0.5
IV2007	-0.4	0.1
IIIQ2007	0.3	1.7
IIQ2007	0.2	2.0
IQ2007	0.0	2.4

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/175168

Contributions to quarterly growth of GDP in Italy are in Table VG-2. Growth at 0.2 percent in IIIQ2015 originates in 0.3 percentage points contributed by final national consumption and increase in stocks of 0.3 percentage points with deduction of 0.1 percent by fixed investment and deduction of 0.4 percentage points by net trade.

Table VG-2, Italy, Contributions to Quarterly Change of GDP, %

	IVQ2014	IQ2015	IIQ2015	IIIQ2015
Internal Demand Net of Stocks	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2
Final National Consumption	0.2	0.0	0.2	0.3
Fixed Investment	0.0	0.2	0.0	-0.1
Change in Stocks	-0.7	0.5	0.2	0.3
Net Exports	0.4	-0.4	0.0	-0.4
GDP	-0.1	0.4	0.3	0.2

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/175168

Level and rates of growth of GDP and components in Italy in IIIQ2015 are in Table VG-3. GFCF (Gross Fixed Capital Formation) grew 0.9 percent in IIIQ2015, declining 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015. Final consumption increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and grew 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier.

Table VG-3, Italy, GDP in Chained Volumes, Euro and ∆%

Aggregate	Chained Volumes Million Euro	∆% IIIQ2015/ IIQ2015	∆% IIIQ2015/ IIIQ2014
GDP	386,970	0.2	0.8
Imports	106,869	0.5	5.1
Final Consumption	311,232	0.4	0.9
Household and NPISH	232,426	0.4	1.1
Government	78,869	0.3	0.4
GFCF	64,355	-0.4	0.9
Equipment	28,533	-0.9	-1.1
Transport	3,549	0.4	39.2
Construction	32,291	0.0	-0.3
Change in Inventories	-	-	-
Exports	117,210	-0.8	3.5

GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/175168

Chart VG-1 of the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) provides growth of GDP of Italy at market prices. The year on year rate of growth pulled strongly out of the contraction. There is evident trend of deceleration with increasingly sharper contraction and mild moderation in 2013 and 2014. GDP increased in IQ2015, IIQ2015 and IIIQ2015.

Chart VG-1, Italy, GDP at Market Prices, ∆% on Same Quarter Year Earlier

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/

Data on Italy’s labor market since 2004 are provided in Table VG-1A. The unemployment rate has risen from 6.2 percent in Dec 2006 to 11.5 percent in Oct 2015. The rate of youth unemployment for ages 15 to 24 years increased from 21.2 percent in Dec 2006 to 39.8 percent in Oct 2015. As in other advanced economies, unemployment has reached high levels.

Table VG-1A, Italy, Labor Report

	Participation Rate %	Employment Ratio %	Unemployment Rate %	Unemployment Rate 15-24 Years %
Oct 2015	63.8	56.3	11.5	39.8
Sep	63.9	56.4	11.6	39.4
Aug	64.1	56.5	11.7	39.7
Jul	63.9	56.3	11.8	39.2
Jun	64.3	56.2	12.4	42.3
May	64.1	56.1	12.3	41.5
Apr	64.2	56.3	12.2	41.2
Mar	64.0	55.9	12.4	41.7
Feb	63.9	56.0	12.2	41.6
Jan	63.9	56.0	12.2	41.1
Dec 2014	64.0	55.9	12.4	41.1
Nov	64.2	55.7	13.1	43.2
Oct	64.4	55.9	13.0	42.6
Sep	64.3	55.9	12.9	42.4
Aug	63.9	55.6	12.8	43.5
Jul	64.1	55.7	12.9	43.5
Jun	63.7	55.8	12.2	42.2
May	63.7	55.6	12.5	41.9
Apr	63.4	55.4	12.5	43.0
Mar	63.7	55.6	12.5	43.4
Feb	63.6	55.4	12.7	43.0
Jan	63.7	55.4	12.8	43.2
Dec 2013	63.6	55.5	12.5	42.5
Dec 2012	63.5	56.1	11.4	38.4
Dec 2011	62.7	56.7	9.5	31.4
Dec 2010	61.9	56.8	8.1	28.5
Dec 2009	62.2	56.9	8.3	26.6
Dec 2008	62.4	58.1	6.7	22.9
Dec 2007	63.0	58.8	6.6	22.2
Dec 2006	62.4	58.5	6.2	21.2
Dec 2005	62.6	57.8	7.5	23.0
Dec 2004	62.5	57.5	7.9	24.0

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/175137

Table VG-2A provides more detail on the labor report for Italy in Oct 2015. The level of employment decreased 0.2 percent from Sep 2015 to Oct 2015 and increased 75,000 from Oct 2014 to Oct 2015. Unemployment decreased 13,000 in Oct 2015 and decreased 410,000 from a year earlier. A dramatic aspect found in most advanced economies is the high rate of unemployment of youth at 39.8 percent in Oct 2015 for ages 15 to 24 years.

Table VG-2A, Italy, Labor Report, NSA

Oct 2015	1000s	Change from Prior Month 1000s	∆% from Prior Month	Change from Prior Year 1000s	∆% from Prior Year
EMP	22,443	-39	-0.2	75	0.3
UNE	2,297	-13	-0.5	-410	-12.3
INA   15-64	14,128	32	0.2	196	1.4
EMP 15-24	926	-2	-0.2	4	0.4
UNE 15-24	611	7	1.2	-74	-10.8
INA 15-24	4,387	-8	-0.2	27	0.6
EMP %	56.3		-0.1		0.2*
UNE %	11.5		0.0		-0.5*
Youth UNE %  15-24	39.8		0.3		-1.2*
INA % 15-64	36.2		0.1		0.2

Notes: EMP: Employed; UNE: Unemployed; INA 15-64: Inactive aged 15 to 64; EMP %: Employment Rate; UNE %: Unemployment Rate; Youth UNE % 15-24: Youth Unemployment Rate aged 15 to 24; INA % 15-64: Inactive Rate aged 15 to 64. *Percentage change from prior quarter to current quarter

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/175137

Chart VG-1 provides the rate of unemployment in Italy that decreased from 13.0 percent in Oct 2014 to 11.5 percent in Oct 2015.

Chart VG-1A, Italy, Rate of Unemployment, %

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/en/

Chart VG-2 of the Istituto Nazionale di Statistica provides the total number of employed persons in Italy. The level of employment increased from 22.368 million in Oct 2014 to 22.443 million in Oct 2015.

Chart VG-2A, Italy, Total Number of Employed Persons, Millions, SA

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/en/

VH United Kingdom. Annual data in Table VH-UK show the strong impact of the global recession in the UK with decline of GDP of 4.2 percent in 2009 after dropping 0.5 percent in 2008. Recovery of 1.5 percent in 2010 is relatively low in comparison with annual growth rates in 2007 and earlier years. Growth was only 2.0 percent in 2011 and 1.2 percent in 2012. Growth increased to 2.2 percent in 2013 and 2.9 percent in 2014. The bottom part of Table VH-UK provides average growth rates of UK GDP since 1948. The UK economy grew at 2.6 percent per year on average between 1948 and 2014, which is relatively high for an advanced economy. The growth rate of GDP between 2000 and 2007 is higher at 2.8 percent. Growth in the current cyclical expansion from 2010 to 2014 has been only at 2.1 percent as advanced economies struggle with weak internal demand and world trade. GDP in 2014 higher by 5.1 percent relative to 2007 while it would have been 21.3 higher at trend of 2.8 percent as from 2000 to 2007.

Table VH-UK, UK, Gross Domestic Product, ∆%

	∆% on Prior Year
1998	3.4
1999	3.1
2000	3.8
2001	2.8
2002	2.5
2003	3.3
2004	2.5
2005	3.0
2006	2.7
2007	2.6
2008	-0.5
2009	-4.2
2010	1.5
2011	2.0
2012	1.2
2013	2.2
2014	2.9
Average Growth Rates ∆% per Year
1948-2014	2.6
1950-1959	3.1
1960-1969	3.1
1970-1979	2.6
1980-1989	3.2
1990-1999	2.3
2000-2007	2.8
2007-2013*	2.1
2007-2014*	5.1
2000-2014	1.7

*Absolute change from 2007 to 2013 and from 2007 to 2014

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/second-estimate-of-gdp/q3-2015/index.html

The Business Activity Index of the Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI^® increased from 54.9 in Oct to 54.9 in Nov (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/df79949c60e84db48f4488b36585f606). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds the combined indices consistent with the UK economy growing at around 0.6 percent in IVQ2015 (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/df79949c60e84db48f4488b36585f606). The Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®) decreased to 52.7 in Nov from 55.2 in Oct (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/86337d457d8c4dc3a13b8812e1074671). New export orders increased. Rob Dobson, Senior Economist at Markit that compiles the Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI^®, finds improving manufacturing conditions (https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/86337d457d8c4dc3a13b8812e1074671). Table UK provides the economic indicators for the United Kingdom.

Table UK, UK Economic Indicators

CPI	Oct month ∆%: 0.1 Sep 12-month ∆%: -0.1 Blog 11/22/15
Output/Input Prices	Output Prices: Oct 12-month NSA ∆%: -1.3; excluding food, petroleum ∆%: 0.3 Input Prices: Oct 12-month NSA ∆%: -12.1 Excluding ∆%: -6.5 Blog 11/22/15
GDP Growth	IIIQ2015 prior quarter ∆% 0.5; year earlier same quarter ∆%: 2.3 Blog 3/31/13 4/28/13 5/26/13 7/28/13 8/25/13 9/29/13 10/27/13 12/1/13 12/22/13 2/2/14 3/2/14 4/6/14 5/4/14 5/25/14 6/29/14 7/27/14 8/17/14 10/5/14 10/26/14 11/30/14 12/28/14 2/1/15 3/1/15 4/5/15 5/3/15 5/31/15 7/5/15 8/2/15 9/6/15 10/4/15 11/1/15 11/29/15
Industrial Production	Sep 2015/Sep 2014 ∆%: Production Industries 1.1; Manufacturing -0.6 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Retail Sales	Oct month ∆%: -0.6 Oct 12-month ∆%: 3.8 Earlier Data: Blog 4/26/15
Labor Market	Jul-Sep Unemployment Rate: 5.3% Blog 11/15/15 LMGDP 5/17/15
GDP and the Labor Market	IQ2015 Employment 104.8 IQ2008 =100 GDP IQ15=104.0 IQ2008=100 Blog 5/17/14
Trade Balance	Balance SA Sep minus ₤1353 million Exports Sep ∆%: 1.3; Jul-Sep ∆%: -0.5 Imports Aug ∆%: -2.2 Jul-Sep ∆%: -1.0 EARLIER DATA: Blog 4/12/15

Links to blog comments in Table UK: 11/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/dollar-revaluation-constraining.html

11/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-liftoff-followed-by.html

11/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-policy-conundrum-recovery.html

11/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-increase-considered.html

10/4/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/10/labor-market-uncertainty-and-interest.html

9/6/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what.html

08/02/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/turbulence-of-valuations-of-financial.html

7/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/07/turbulence-of-financial-asset.html

5/31/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/dollar-revaluation-squeezing-corporate.html

5/17/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/fluctuating-valuations-of-financial.html

5/3/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/dollar-devaluation-and-carry-trade.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html

12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

10/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/financial-oscillations-world-inflation.html

10/5/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/world-financial-turbulence-twenty-seven.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

7/27/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

5/4/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html

4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html

3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html

2/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

12/22/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html

12/1/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/exit-risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html

10/27/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/twenty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html

9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html

7/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html

5/26/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

4/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_28.html

03/31/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015.