“Quite High” Equity Valuations and “Potential Dangers” in Bonds, Twenty Six Million Unemployed or Underemployed, Stagnating Real Wages, Rules, Discretionary Authorities and Slow Productivity Growth, United States International Trade, World Cyclical Slow Growth and Global Recession Risk: Part V

 

“Quite High” Equity Valuations and “Potential Dangers” in Bonds, Twenty Six Million Unemployed or Underemployed, Stagnating Real Wages, Rules, Discretionary Authorities and Slow Productivity Growth, United States International Trade, World Cyclical Slow Growth and Global Recession Risk

Carlos M. Pelaez

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015

I Twenty Six Million Unemployed or Underemployed

IA1 Summary of the Employment Situation

IA2 Number of People in Job Stress

IA3 Long-term and Cyclical Comparison of Employment

IA4 Job Creation

IB Stagnating Real Wages

IIA Rules, Discretionary Authorities and Slow Productivity Growth

IIB United States International Trade

III World Financial Turbulence

IIIA Financial Risks

IIIE Appendix Euro Zone Survival Risk

IIIF Appendix on Sovereign Bond Valuation

IV Global Inflation

V World Economic Slowdown

VA United States

VB Japan

VC China

VD Euro Area

VE Germany

VF France

VG Italy

VH United Kingdom

VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets

VII Economic Indicators

VIII Interest Rates

IX Conclusion

References

Appendixes

Appendix I The Great Inflation

IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies

IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact

IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort

IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis

IIIGA Monetary Policy with Deficit Financing of Economic Growth

IIIGB Adjustment during the Debt Crisis of the 1980s

V World Economic Slowdown. Table V-1 is constructed with the database of the IMF (http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29) to show GDP in dollars in 2013 and the growth rate of real GDP of the world and selected regional countries from 2013 to 2017. The data illustrate the concept often repeated of “two-speed recovery” of the world economy from the recession of 2007 to 2009. The IMF has changed its forecast of the world economy to 3.4 percent in 2014 but accelerating to 3.5 percent in 2015, 3.8 percent in 2016 and 3.8 percent in 2016. Slow-speed recovery occurs in the “major advanced economies” of the G7 that account for $34,883 billion of world output of $75,471 billion, or 46.2 percent, but are projected to grow at much lower rates than world output, 2.1 percent on average from 2014 to 2017 in contrast with 3.6 percent for the world as a whole. While the world would grow 15.3 percent in the four years from 2014 to 2017, the G7 as a whole would grow 8.6 percent. The difference in dollars of 2013 is high: growing by 15.2 percent would add around $11.5 trillion of output to the world economy, or roughly, two times the output of the economy of Japan of $4,920 billion but growing by 8.6 percent would add $6.5 trillion of output to the world, or about the output of Japan in 2013. The “two speed” concept is in reference to the growth of the 150 countries labeled as emerging and developing economies (EMDE) with joint output in 2013 of $29,358 billion, or 38.9 percent of world output. The EMDEs would grow cumulatively 19.9 percent or at the average yearly rate of 4.7 percent, contributing $5.8 trillion from 2014 to 2017 or the equivalent of somewhat less than the GDP of $9,469 billion of China in 2013. The final four countries in Table V-1 often referred as BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China), are large, rapidly growing emerging economies. Their combined output in 2013 adds to $15,814 billion, or 21.0 percent of world output, which is equivalent to 45.3 percent of the combined output of the major advanced economies of the G7.

Table V-1, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Real GDP Growth

	GDP USD 2013	Real GDP ∆% 2014	Real GDP ∆% 2015	Real GDP ∆% 2016	Real GDP ∆% 2017
World	75,471	3.4	3.5	3.8	3.8
G7	34,883	1.7	2.3	2.3	2.0
Canada	1,839	2.5	2.2	2.0	2.0
France	2,807	0.4	1.2	1.5	1.7
DE	3,731	1.6	1.6	1.7	1.5
Italy	2,138	-0.4	0.5	1.1	1.1
Japan	4,920	-0.1	1.0	1.2	0.4
UK	2,680	2.6	2.7	2.3	2.2
US	16,768	2.4	3.1	3.1	2.7
Euro Area	13,143	0.9	1.5	1.7	1.6
DE	3,731	1.6	1.6	1.7	1.5
France	2,807	0.4	1.2	1.5	1.7
Italy	2,138	-0.4	0.5	1.1	1.1
POT	225	0.9	1.6	1.5	1.4
Ireland	232	4.8	3.9	3.3	2.8
Greece	242	0.7	2.5	3.7	3.2
Spain	1,393	1.4	2.5	2.0	1.8
EMDE	29,358	4.6	4.3	4.7	5.0
Brazil	2,391	0.1	-1.0	1.0	2.3
Russia	2,079	0.6	-3.8	-1.1	1.0
India	1,875	7.2	7.5	7.5	7.6
China	9,469	7.4	6.8	6.3	6.0

Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries); POT: Portugal

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook databank

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/01/weodata/index.aspx

Continuing high rates of unemployment in advanced economies constitute another characteristic of the database of the WEO (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/01/weodata/index.aspx ). Table V-2 is constructed with the WEO database to provide rates of unemployment from 2013 to 2017 for major countries and regions. In fact, unemployment rates for 2014 in Table I-2 are high for all countries: unusually high for countries with high rates most of the time and unusually high for countries with low rates most of the time. The rates of unemployment are particularly high in 2014 for the countries with sovereign debt difficulties in Europe: 13.9 percent for Portugal (POT), 11.3 percent for Ireland, 26.5 percent for Greece, 24.5 percent for Spain and 12.8 percent for Italy, which is lower but still high. The G7 rate of unemployment is 7.1 percent. Unemployment rates are not likely to decrease substantially if slow growth persists in advanced economies.

Table I-2, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Unemployment Rate as Percent of Labor Force

	% Labor Force 2013	% Labor Force 2014	% Labor Force 2015	% Labor Force 2016	% Labor Force 2017
World	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
G7	7.1	6.4	6.0	5.8	5.8
Canada	7.1	6.9	7.0	6.9	6.8
France	10.3	10.2	10.1	9.9	9.7
DE	5.2	5.0	4.9	4.8	4.8
Italy	12.2	12.8	12.6	12.3	12.0
Japan	4.0	3.6	3.7	3.7	3.8
UK	7.6	6.2	5.4	5.4	5.4
US	7.4	6.2	5.5	5.2	5.0
Euro Area	12.0	11.6	11.1	10.6	10.3
DE	5.2	5.0	4.9	4.8	4.8
France	10.3	10.2	10.1	9.9	9.7
Italy	12.2	12.8	12.6	12.3	12.0
POT	16.2	13.9	13.1	12.6	12.1
Ireland	13.0	11.3	9.8	8.8	8.3
Greece	27.5	26.5	24.8	22.1	20.0
Spain	26.1	24.5	22.6	21.1	19.9
EMDE	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
Brazil	5.4	4.8	5.9	6.3	5.9
Russia	5.5	5.1	6.5	6.5	6.0
India	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
China	4.1	4.1	4.1	4.1	4.1

Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries)

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/01/weodata/index.aspx

Table V-3 provides the latest available estimates of GDP for the regions and countries followed in this blog from IQ2012 to IIIQ2014 available now for all countries. There are preliminary estimates for most countries for IVQ2014. Growth is weak throughout most of the world.

• Japan. The GDP of Japan increased 1.1 percent in IQ2012, 4.3 percent at SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) and 3.5 percent relative to a year earlier but part of the jump could be the low level a year earlier because of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan is experiencing difficulties with the overvalued yen because of worldwide capital flight originating in zero interest rates with risk aversion in an environment of softer growth of world trade. Japan’s GDP fell 0.4 percent in IIQ2012 at the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of minus 1.4 percent, which is much lower than 4.3 percent in IQ2012. Growth of 3.5 percent in IIQ2012 in Japan relative to IIQ2011 has effects of the low level of output because of Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012 at the SAAR of minus 2.2 percent and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IVQ2012 at the SAAR of minus 0.6 percent and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan grew 1.4 percent in IQ2013 at the SAAR of 5.6 percent and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2013 at the SAAR of 3.3 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP grew 0.4 percent in IIIQ2013 at the SAAR of 1.4 percent and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Japan’s GDP decreased 0.3 percent at the SAAR of minus 1.2 percent, increasing 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 1.3 percent in IQ2014 at the SAAR of 5.1 percent and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Japan’s GDP fell 1.6 percent at the SAAR of minus 6.4 percent and fell 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.7 percent in IIIQ2014 at the SAAR of minus 2.6 percent and fell 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, Japan’s GDP grew 0.4 percent, at the SAAR of 1.5 percent, decreasing 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier.
• China. China’s GDP grew 1.4 percent in IQ2012, annualizing to 5.7 percent, and 8.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 2.1 percent in IIQ2012, which annualizes to 8.7 percent and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 2.0 percent in IIIQ2012, which annualizes at 8.2 percent and 7.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, China grew at 1.9 percent, which annualizes at 7.8 percent, and 7.9 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, China grew at 1.7 percent, which annualizes at 7.0 percent and 7.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, China grew at 1.8 percent, which annualizes at 7.4 percent and 7.5 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 2.3 percent in IIIQ2013, which annualizes at 9.5 percent and 7.9 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 1.8 percent in IVQ2013, which annualized to 7.4 percent and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP grew 1.6 percent in IQ2014, which annualizes to 6.6 percent, and 7.4 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP grew 2.0 percent in IIQ2014, which annualizes at 8.2 percent, and 7.5 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP grew 1.9 percent in IIIQ2014, which is equivalent to 7.8 percent in a year, and 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew 1.5 percent in IVQ2014, which annualizes at 6.1 percent, and 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 1.3 percent in IQ2015, which annualizes at 5.3 percent, and 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. There is decennial change in leadership in China (http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/special/18cpcnc/index.htm). Growth rates of GDP of China in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier have been declining from 2011 to 2015.
• Euro Area. GDP fell 0.1 percent in the euro area in IQ2012 and decreased 0.4 in IQ2012 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP contracted 0.3 percent IIQ2012 and fell 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.1 percent and declined 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.4 percent relative to the prior quarter and fell 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, the GDP of the euro area fell 0.4 percent and decreased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2013, euro area GDP increased 0.2 percent and fell 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2013 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent and 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The euro area’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier.
• Germany. The GDP of Germany increased 0.3 percent in IQ2012 and 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier but 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier when adjusted for calendar (CA) effects. In IIIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IVQ2012 and decreased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, Germany’s GDP decreased 0.4 percent and fell 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 0.8 percent and 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2013 and 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent and 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.8 percent in IQ2014 and 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Germany’s GDP contracted 0.1 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier.
• United States. Growth of US GDP in IQ2012 was 0.6 percent, at SAAR of 2.3 percent and higher by 2.6 percent relative to IQ2011. US GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2012, 1.6 percent at SAAR and 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, US GDP grew 0.6 percent, 2.5 percent at SAAR and 2.7 percent relative to IIIQ2011. In IVQ2012, US GDP grew 0.0 percent, 0.1 percent at SAAR and 1.6 percent relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, US GDP grew at 2.7 percent SAAR, 0.7 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.7 percent relative to the same quarter in 2013. In IIQ2013, US GDP grew at 1.8 percent in SAAR, 0.4 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.8 percent relative to IIQ2012. US GDP grew at 4.5 percent in SAAR in IIIQ2013, 1.1 percent relative to the prior quarter and 2.3 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier (Section I and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html). In IVQ2013, US GDP grew 0.9 percent at 3.5 percent SAAR and 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, US GDP decreased 0.5 percent, increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier and fell 2.1 percent at SAAR. In IIQ2014, US GDP increased 1.1 percent at 4.6 percent SAAR and increased 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP increased 1.2 percent in IIIQ2014 at 5.0 percent SAAR and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, US GDP increased 0.5 percent at SAAR of 2.2 percent and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2015 at SAAR of 0.2 percent and grew 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier.
• United Kingdom. In IQ2012, UK GDP increased 0.1 percent, increasing 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP fell 0.2 percent in IIQ2012 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIIQ2012 and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP fell 0.3 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IIIQ2012 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2013 and 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2013 and 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2013, UK GDP increased 0.7 percent and 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2013 and 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, UK GDP increased 0.9 percent and 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2014 and 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2014, UK GDP increased 0.6 percent and increased 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.6 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2015, GDP increased 0.3 percent and 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier.
• Italy. Italy has experienced decline of GDP in nine consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IIIQ2013 and in IIQ2014 and IIIQ2014. Italy’s GDP fell 0.9 percent in IQ2012 and declined 2.3 percent relative to IQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell 0.6 percent in IIQ2012 and declined 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, Italy’s GDP fell 0.6 percent and declined 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy contracted 0.6 percent in IVQ2012 and fell 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, Italy’s GDP contracted 0.8 percent and fell 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.1 percent in IIQ2013 and 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2013 and declined 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2013 and decreased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, Italy’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent and fell 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy fell 0.2 percent in IIQ2014 and declined 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2014, Italy’s GDP contracted 0.1 percent and fell 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy changed 0.0 percent in IVQ20214 and declined 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier
• France. France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2012 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.3 percent in IIQ2012 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP fell 0.2 percent in IVQ2012 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, France’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent and declined 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2013 and 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2013 and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2013 and 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, France’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, France’s GDP contracted 0.1 percent and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier

Table V-3, Percentage Changes of GDP Quarter on Prior Quarter and on Same Quarter Year Earlier, ∆%

	IQ2012/IVQ2011	IQ2012/IQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.6        SAAR: 2.3	2.6
Japan	QOQ: 1.1 SAAR: 4.3	3.5
China	1.4	8.1
Euro Area	-0.1	-0.4
Germany	0.3	1.5
France	0.2	0.6
Italy	-0.9	-2.3
United Kingdom	0.1	1.0
	IIQ2012/IQ2012	IIQ2012/IIQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.4         SAAR: 1.6	2.3
Japan	QOQ: -0.4 SAAR: -1.4	3.5
China	2.1	7.6
Euro Area	-0.3	-0.8
Germany	0.1	0.3 0.8 CA
France	-0.3	0.4
Italy	-0.6	-3.1
United Kingdom	-0.2	0.6
	IIIQ2012/ IIQ2012	IIIQ2012/ IIIQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.6  SAAR: 2.5	2.7
Japan	QOQ: –0.5 SAAR: –2.2	0.2
China	2.0	7.4
Euro Area	-0.1	-0.8
Germany	0.1	0.1
France	0.2	0.4
Italy	-0.6	-3.1
United Kingdom	0.8	0.7
	IVQ2012/IIIQ2012	IVQ2012/IVQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.0 SAAR: 0.1	1.6
Japan	QOQ: -0.2 SAAR: -0.6	0.0
China	1.9	7.9
Euro Area	-0.4	-0.9
Germany	-0.4	-0.3
France	-0.2	0.0
Italy	-0.6	-2.7
United Kingdom	-0.3	0.4
	IQ2013/IVQ2012	IQ2013/IQ2012
United States	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.7	1.7
Japan	QOQ: 1.4 SAAR: 5.6	0.5
China	1.7	7.8
Euro Area	-0.4	-1.2
Germany	-0.4	-1.8
France	-0.1	-0.3
Italy	-0.8	-2.6
UK	0.6	0.9
	IIQ2013/IQ2013	IIQ2013/IIQ2012
United States	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.8	1.8
Japan	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.3	1.4
China	1.8	7.5
Euro Area	0.3	-0.6
Germany	0.8	0.5
France	0.7	0.7
Italy	-0.1	-2.0
UK	0.6	1.7
	IIIQ2013/IIQ2013	III/Q2013/  IIIQ2012
USA	QOQ: 1.1 SAAR: 4.5	2.3
Japan	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.4	2.2
China	2.3	7.9
Euro Area	0.2	-0.3
Germany	0.3	0.8
France	-0.1	0.3
Italy	0.1	-1.4
UK	0.7	1.6
	IVQ2013/IIIQ2013	IVQ2013/IVQ2012
USA	QOQ: 0.9 SAAR: 3.5	3.1
Japan	QOQ: -0.3 SAAR: -1.2	2.3
China	1.8	7.6
Euro Area	0.3	0.4
Germany	0.4	1.0
France	0.3	0.8
Italy	0.0	-0.8
UK	0.4	2.4
	IQ2014/IVQ2013	IQ2014/IQ2013
USA	QOQ -0.5 SAAR -2.1	1.9
Japan	QOQ: 1.3 SAAR: 5.1	2.4
China	1.6	7.4
Euro Area	0.3	1.1
Germany	0.8	2.6
France	-0.1	0.8
Italy	-0.1	-0.1
UK	0.9	2.7
	IIQ2014/IQ2014	IIQ2014/IIQ2013
USA	QOQ 1.1 SAAR 4.6	2.6
Japan	QOQ: -1.6 SAAR: -6.4	-0.3
China	2.0	7.5
Euro Area	0.1	0.8
Germany	-0.1	1.0
France	-0.1	0.0
Italy	-0.2	-0.3
UK	0.8	2.9
	IIIQ2014/IIQ2014	IIIQ2014/IIIQ2013
USA	QOQ: 1.2 SAAR: 5.0	2.7
Japan	QOQ: -0.7 SAAR: -2.6	-1.4
China	1.9	7.3
Euro Area	0.2	0.8
Germany	0.1	1.2
France	0.3	0.4
Italy	-0.1	-0.5
UK	0.6	2.8
	IVQ2014/IIIQ2014	IVQ2014/IVQ2013
USA	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.2	2.4
Japan	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.5	-0.8
China	1.5	7.3
Euro Area	0.3	0.9
Germany	0.7	1.6
France	0.1	0.2
Italy	0.0	-0.5
UK	0.6	3.0
	IQ2015/IVQ2014	IQ2015/IQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.2	3.0
China	1.3	7.0
UK	0.3	2.4

QOQ: Quarter relative to prior quarter; SAAR: seasonally adjusted annual rate

Source: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.census.gov/aboutus/stat_int.html

Table V-4 provides two types of data: growth of exports and imports in the latest available months and in the past 12 months; and contributions of net trade (exports less imports) to growth of real GDP.

• Japan. Japan provides the most worrisome data (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/patience-on-interest-rate-increases.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/monetary-policy-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/valuation-risks-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/interest-rate-risks-world-inflation.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/global-financial-risk-world-inflation.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations_8763.html http://cmpass ocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/paring-quantitative-easing-policy-and_4699.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/thirty-one-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/12/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_24.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/11/contraction-of-united-states-real_25.html and for GDP http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html and earlier http://cmpassocreulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/recovery-without-hiring-united-states.html). In Mar 2015, Japan’s exports increased 8.5 percent in 12 months while imports decreased 14.5 percent. The second part of Table V-4 shows that net trade deducted 1.4 percentage points from Japan’s growth of GDP in IIQ2012, deducted 1.9 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2012 and deducted 0.4 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2012. Net trade added 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2012, 1.6 percentage points in IQ2013 and 0.2 percentage points in IIQ2013. In IIIQ2013, net trade deducted 1.5 percentage points from GDP growth in Japan. Net trade ducted 2.1 percentage points from GDP growth in Japan in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 1.2 percentage point from GDP growth of Japan in IQ2014. Net trade added 4.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2014. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2014 and added 0.9 percentage points in IVQ2014.

• China. In Apr 2015, China exports decreased 6.4 percent relative to a year earlier and imports decreased 16.2 percent.
• Germany. Germany’s exports increased 1.2 percent in the month of Mar 2015 and increased 12.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2015. Germany’s imports increased 2.4 percent in the month of Mar 2015 and increased 7.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to growth of GDP in IQ2012, contributed 0.4 percentage points in IIQ2012, contributed 0.3 percentage points in IIIQ2012, deducted 0.5 percentage points in IVQ2012, deducted 0.3 percentage points in IQ2013 and added 0.1 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded deducted 0.5 percentage points from Germany’s GDP growth in IIIQ2013 and added 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2014. Net trade added 0.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2014 and added 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2014.
• United Kingdom. Net trade contributed 0.7 percentage points in IIQ2013. In IIIQ2013, net trade deducted 1.7 percentage points from UK growth. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to UK value added in IVQ2013. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to UK value added in IQ2014 and 0.2 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2014 and added 0.8 percentage points in IVQ2014.
• France. France’s exports increased 0.9 percent in Mar 2015 while imports increased 3.1 percent. France’s exports increased 3.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2015 and imports increased 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Net traded added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IIIQ2012 and 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IQ2013 and added 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2013, deducting 1.7 percentage points in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IVQ2013 and deducted 0.1 percentage points in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IIQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to France’s GDP growth in IVQ2014.
• United States. US exports increased 1.6 percent in Mar 2015 and goods exports decreased 5.1 percent in Jan-Mar 2015 relative to a year earlier. Imports increased 7.7 percent in Mar 2015 and goods imports decreased 1.4 percent in Jan-Mar 2015 relative to a year earlier. Net trade deducted 0.04 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2012 and added 0.39 percentage points in IIIQ2012 and 0.79 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade deducted 0.08 percentage points from US GDP growth in IQ2013 and deducted 0.54 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded added 0.59 percentage points to US GDP growth in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 1.08 percentage points to US GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 1.66 percentage points from US GDP growth in IQ2014 and deducted 0.34 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade added 0.78 percentage points to IIIQ2014. Net trade deducted 1.03 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 1.25 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2015. Industrial production increased 0.1 percent in Feb 2015 and decreased 0.3 percent in Jan 2015 after decreasing 0.2 percent in Dec 2014, with all data seasonally adjusted. The Federal Reserve completed its annual revision of industrial production and capacity utilization on Mar 28, 2014 (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/revisions/Current/DefaultRev.htm). The report of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System states (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm):

Industrial production decreased 0.6 percent in Mar 2015 and increased 0.1 percent in Feb 2015 after decreasing 0.4 percent in Jan 2015, with all data seasonally adjusted. The Federal Reserve completed its annual revision of industrial production and capacity utilization on Mar 28, 2014 (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/revisions/Current/DefaultRev.htm). The report of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System states (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm):

“Industrial production decreased 0.6 percent in March after increasing 0.1 percent in February. For the first quarter of 2015 as a whole, industrial production declined at an annual rate of 1.0 percent, the first quarterly decrease since the second quarter of 2009. The decline last quarter resulted from a drop in oil and gas well drilling and servicing of more than 60 percent at an annual rate and from a decrease in manufacturing production of 1.2 percent. In March, manufacturing output moved up 0.1 percent for its first monthly gain since November; however, factory output in January is now estimated to have fallen 0.6 percent, about twice the size of the previously reported decline. The index for mining decreased 0.7 percent in March. The output of utilities fell 5.9 percent to largely reverse a similarly sized increase in February, which was related to unseasonably cold temperatures. At 105.2 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in March was 2.0 percent above its level of a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.6 percentage point in March to 78.4 percent, a rate that is 1.7 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2014) average.” In the six months ending in Mar 2015, United States national industrial production accumulated increase of 0.1 percent at the annual equivalent rate of 0.2 percent, which is lower than growth of 2.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2015. Excluding growth of 1.1 percent in Nov 2014, growth in the remaining five months from Oct 2014 to Mar 2015 accumulated to minus 1.0 percent or minus 2.4 percent annual equivalent. Industrial production declined in three of the past six months. Industrial production contracted at annual equivalent 3.5 percent in the most recent quarter from Jan 2015 to Mar 2015 and expanded at 4.1 percent in the prior quarter Oct to Dec 2014. Business equipment accumulated growth of 1.5 percent in the six months from Oct 2014 to Mar 2015 at the annual equivalent rate of 3.0 percent, which is lower than growth of 3.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2015. The Fed analyzes capacity utilization of total industry in its report (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm): “Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.6 percentage point in March to 78.4 percent, a rate that is 1.7 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2014) average.” United States industry apparently decelerated to a lower growth rate followed by possible acceleration and oscillating growth in past months.

Manufacturing fell 21.9 from the peak in Jun 2007 to the trough in Apr 2009 and increased by 25.1 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Dec 2014. Manufacturing grew 26.5 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Mar 2015. Manufacturing output in Mar 2015 is 1.2 percent below the peak in Jun 2007. The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IQ2015 would have accumulated to 23.9 percent. GDP in IQ2015 would be $18,574.8 billion (in constant dollars of 2009) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $2,270.0 billion than actual $16,304.8 billion. There are about two trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 26.7 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 16.1 percent of the effective labor force (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-competitive-devaluation-rules.html). US GDP in IQ2015 is 12.2 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $14,991.8 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $16,304.8 billion in IQ2015 or 8.8 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.2 percent. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth at average 3.3 percent per year from Mar 1919 to Mar 2015. Growth at 3.3 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output from 99.2392 in Dec 2007 to 125.5771 in Mar 2015. The actual index NSA in Mar 2015 is 101.8045, which is 18.9 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 2.4 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2014, raising the index at trend to 117.2305 in Mar 2015. The output of manufacturing at 101.8045 in Mar 2015 is 13.2 percent below trend under this alternative calculation.

Table V-4, Growth of Trade and Contributions of Net Trade to GDP Growth, ∆% and % Points

	Exports M ∆%	Exports 12 M ∆%	Imports M ∆%	Imports 12 M ∆%
USA	1.6 Mar	-5.1 Jan-Mar	7.7 Jan	-1.4 Jan-Mar
Japan		Mar 2015 8.5 Feb 2.4 Jan 17.0 Dec 12.9 Nov 4.9 Oct 9.6 Sep 6.9 Aug -1.3 Jul 3.9 Jun -2.0 May 2014 -2.7 Apr 2014 5.1 Mar 2014 1.8 Feb 2014 9.5 Jan 2014 9.5 Dec 2013 15.3 Nov 2013 18.4 Oct 2013 18.6 Sep 2013 11.5 Aug 2013 14.7 Jul 2013 12.2 Jun 2013 7.4 May 2013 10.1 Apr 2013 3.8 Mar 2013 1.1 Feb 2013 -2.9 Jan 2013 6.4 Dec -5.8 Nov -4.1 Oct -6.5 Sep -10.3 Aug -5.8 Jul -8.1		Mar 2015 -14.5 Feb -3.6 Jan -9.0 Dec 1.9 Nov -1.7 Oct 2.7 Sep 6.2 Aug -1.5 Jul 2.3 Jun 8.4 May 2014 -3.6 Apr 2013 3.4 Mar 2014 18.1 Feb 2014 9.0 Jan 2014 25.0 Dec 2013 24.7 Nov 2013 21.1 Oct 2013 26.1 Sep 2013 16.5 Aug 2013 16.0 Jul 2013 19.6 Jun 2013 11.8 May 2013 10.0 Apr 2013 9.4 Mar 2013 5.5 Feb 2013 7.3 Jan 2013 7.3 Dec 1.9 Nov 0.8 Oct -1.6 Sep 4.1 Aug -5.4 Jul 2.1
China		2015 -6.4 Apr -15.0 Mar 48.3 Feb -3.3 Jan 2014 9.7 Dec 4.7 Nov 11.6 Oct 15.3 Sep 9.4 Aug 14.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 7.0 May 0.9 Apr -6.6 Mar -18.1 Feb 10.6 Jan 2013 4.3 Dec 12.7 Nov 5.6 Oct -0.3 Sep 7.2 Aug 5.1 Jul -3.1 Jun 1.0 May 14.7 Apr 10.0 Mar 21.8 Feb 25.0 Jan		2015 -16.2 Apr -12.7 Mar -20.5 Feb -19.9 Jan 2014 -2.4 Dec -6.7 Nov 4.6 Oct 7.0 Sep -2.4 Aug -1.6 Jul 5.5 Jun -1.6 May -0.8 Apr -11.3 Mar 10.1 Feb 10.0 Jan 2013 8.3 Dec 5.3 Nov 7.6 Oct 7.4 Sep 7.0 Aug 10.9 Jul -0.7 Jun -0.3 May 16.8 Apr 14.1 Mar -15.2 Feb 28.8 Jan
Euro Area	2.2 12 M-Feb	1.8 Jan-Feb	0.1 12-M Feb	-2.8 Jan-Feb
Germany	1.2 Mar CSA	12.4 Mar	2.4 Mar CSA	7.1 Mar
France Feb	0.9	3.8	3.1	3.1
Italy Feb	2.5	3.7	0.6	1.0
UK	0.7 Mar	1.1 Jan 15-Mar 15 /Jan 14-Mar 14	-0.4 Mar	-2.1 Jan 15-Mar 15 /Jan 14-Mar 14
Net Trade % Points GDP Growth	% Points
USA	IQ2015 -1.25 IVQ2014 -1.03 IIIQ2014 0.78 IIQ2014 -0.34 IQ2014 -1.66 IVQ2013 1.08 IIIQ2013 0.59 IIQ2013 -0.54 IQ2013 -0.08 IVQ2012 +0.79 IIIQ2012 0.39 IIQ2012 -0.04 IQ2012 -0.11
Japan	0.3 IQ2012 -1.4 IIQ2012 -1.9 IIIQ2012 -0.4 IVQ2012 1.6 IQ2013 0.2 IIQ2013 -1.5 IIIQ2013 -2.1 IVQ2013 -1.2 IQ2014 4.2 IIQ2014 0.2 IIIQ2014 0.9 IVQ2014
Germany	IQ2012 0.8 IIQ2012 0.4 IIIQ2012 0.3 IVQ2012 -0.5 IQ2013 -0.3 IIQ2013 0.1 IIIQ2013 -0.5 IVQ2013 0.5 IQ2014 -0.1 IIQ2014 0.0 IIIQ2014 0.4 IVQ2014 0.2
France	0.1 IIIQ2012 0.1 IVQ2012 -0.1 IQ2013 0.3 IIQ2013 -1.7 IIIQ2013 0.1 IVQ2013 -0.1 IQ2014 -0.2 IIQ2014 -0.2 IIIQ2014 0.2 IVQ2014
UK	0.7 IIQ2013 -1.7 IIIQ2013 0.1 IVQ2013 0.1 IQ2014 0.2 IIQ2214 -0.5 IIIQ2014 0.8 IVQ2014

Sources: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/

The geographical breakdown of exports and imports of Japan with selected regions and countries is in Table VB-11 for Mar 2015. The share of Asia in Japan’s trade is close to one-half for 53.1 percent of exports and 45.9 percent of imports. Within Asia, exports to China are 17.3 percent of total exports and imports from China 20.5 percent of total imports. While exports to China increased 3.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2015, imports from China decreased 19.6 percent. The largest export market for Japan in Mar 2015 is the US with share of 19.9 percent of total exports, which is close to that of China, and share of imports from the US of 11.6 percent in total imports. Japan’s exports to the US increased 21.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2015 and imports from the US increased 23.9 percent. Western Europe has share of 10.3 percent in Japan’s exports and of 11.7 percent in imports. Rates of growth of exports of Japan in Mar 2015 are 21.3 percent for exports to the US, 9.0 percent for exports to Brazil and minus 3.6 percent for exports to Germany. Comparisons relative to 2011 may have some bias because of the effects of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Deceleration of growth in China and the US and threat of recession in Europe can reduce world trade and economic activity. Growth rates of imports in the 12 months ending in Mar 2015 are mixed. Imports from Asia decreased 10.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2015 while imports from China decreased 19.6 percent. Data are in millions of yen, which may have effects of recent depreciation of the yen relative to the United States dollar (USD).

Table V-5, Japan, Value and 12-Month Percentage Changes of Exports and Imports by Regions and Countries, ∆% and Millions of Yen

Mar 2015	Exports Millions Yen	12 months ∆%	Imports Millions Yen	12 months ∆%
Total	6,927,379	8.5	6,698,119	-14.5
Asia	3,677,463 % Total 53.1	6.7	3,074,462 % Total 45.9	-10.7
China	1,201,176 % Total 17.3	3.9	1,375,355 % Total 20.5	-19.6
USA	1,377,789 % Total 19.9	21.3	774,670 % Total 11.6	23.9
Canada	94,159	35.7	99,652	-2.6
Brazil	50,729	9.0	86,588	13.9
Mexico	119,275	38.9	45,965	26.1
Western Europe	716,847 % Total 10.3	7.0	782,157 % Total 11.7	-4.5
Germany	173,178	-3.6	243,929	2.1
France	54,809	-0.1	87,960	-35.5
UK	96,536	12.7	64,488	15.4
Middle East	309,463	15.4	919,821	-42.6
Australia	123,384	-10.5	370,137	-14.8

Source: Japan, Ministry of Finance http://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/info/index_e.htm

World trade projections of the IMF are in Table V-6. There is increasing growth of the volume of world trade of goods and services from 3.5 percent in 2013 to 3.7 percent in 2015 and 5.0 percent on average from 2016 to 2019. World trade would be slower for advanced economies while emerging and developing economies (EMDE) experience faster growth. World economic slowdown would be more challenging with lower growth of world trade.

Table I-10, IMF, Projections of World Trade, USD Billions, USD/Barrel and Annual ∆%

	2013	2014	2015	Average ∆% 2016-2019
World Trade Volume (Goods and Services)	3.5	3.4	3.7	5.0
Exports Goods & Services	3.7	3.3	4.0	5.0
Imports Goods & Services	3.3	3.4	3.4	5.1
World Trade Value of Exports Goods & Services USD Billion	23,117	23,476	21,818	Average ∆% 2007-2016 20,724
Value of Exports of Goods USD Billion	18,632	18,817	17,285	Average ∆% 2007-2016 16,612
Average Oil Price USD/Barrel	104.07	96.25	58.14	Average ∆% 2007-2016 84.21
Average Annual ∆% Export Unit Value of Manufactures	-1.4	-0.8	-3.3	Average ∆% 2007-2016 0.9
Exports of Goods & Services	2013	2014	2015	Average ∆% 2016-2019
Euro Area	2.1	4.2	4.4	4.4
EMDE	4.6	3.4	5.3	6.0
G7	2.0	3.7	4.1	4.1
Imports Goods & Services
Euro Area	1.0	4.3	4.3	4.3
EMDE	5.5	3.7	3.5	6.0
G7	1.6	3.7	4.1	4.6
Terms of Trade of Goods & Services
Euro Area	0.9	0.8	1.4	-0.5
EMDE	-0.3	-0.6	-3.7	-0.1
G7	0.9	0.5	1.4	0.05
Terms of Trade of Goods
Euro Area	1.2	1.0	1.7	-0.6
EMDE	-0.1	0.2	-4.0	0.3
G7	0.8	0.2	1.0	0.1

Notes: Commodity Price Index includes Fuel and Non-fuel Prices; Commodity Industrial Inputs Price includes agricultural raw materials and metal prices; Oil price is average of WTI, Brent and Dubai

Source: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook databank

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/01/weodata/index.aspx

The JP Morgan Global All-Industry Output Index of the JP Morgan Manufacturing and Services PMI^™, produced by JP Morgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM, with high association with world GDP, decreased to 54.2 in Apr from 54.8 in Mar, indicating expansion at slower rate (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8554b240eda74a019242005c06c2b843). This index has remained above the contraction territory of 50.0 during 69 consecutive months. The employment index increased from 52.0 in Mar to 52.5 in Apr with input prices rising at faster rate, new orders increasing at slower rate and output increasing at faster rate (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8554b240eda74a019242005c06c2b843). Joseph Lupton, Senior Economist at JP Morgan, finds sound world growth (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8554b240eda74a019242005c06c2b843). The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI^™, produced by JP Morgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM, decreased to 51.0 in Apr from 51.7 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/76478971e7cf4b029cab8fa1f12db82d). New export orders expanded for the twenty-first consecutive month. Joseph Lupton, Senior Economist at JP Morgan Chase, finds slowing growth in global manufacturing that could recover in the second half (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/76478971e7cf4b029cab8fa1f12db82d). The HSBC Brazil Composite Output Index, compiled by Markit, decreased from 47.0 in Mar to 44.2 in Apr, indicating contraction in activity of Brazil’s private sector (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f89cfda3837d4c2da8a147b232648a45). The HSBC Brazil Services Business Activity index, compiled by Markit, decreased from 47.9 in Mar to 44.6 in Apr, indicating contracting services activity (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f89cfda3837d4c2da8a147b232648a45). Pollyana De Lima, Economist at Markit, finds weaker private sector activity (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f89cfda3837d4c2da8a147b232648a45). The HSBC Brazil Purchasing Managers’ Index^TM (PMI^™) decreased from 46.2 in Mar to 46.0 in Apr, indicating deterioration in manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4f2a7d5a203642648f3425beb3190e0b). Pollyanna De Lima, Economist at Markit, finds decline in output and new orders (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4f2a7d5a203642648f3425beb3190e0b).

VA United States. The Markit Flash US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) seasonally adjusted decreased to 54.2 in Apr from 55.7 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/2981f1d7493e4d95ae88cb7a2dd6bc34). New export orders declined with weakness in Europe partly because of dollar revaluation. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds that manufacturing expanding with challenges to competitiveness from the strong dollar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/2981f1d7493e4d95ae88cb7a2dd6bc34). The Markit Flash US Services PMI™ Business Activity Index decreased from 59.2 in Mar to 57.8 in Apr (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/abca94e77ba4442fa8a7a7549544852d). The Markit Flash US Composite PMI™ Output Index decreased from 59.2 in Mar to 57.4 in Apr. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds that the surveys are consistent with slowing GDP growth that may accelerate to about 3.0 percent in the second quarter (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/abca94e77ba4442fa8a7a7549544852d). The Markit US Composite PMI™ Output Index of Manufacturing and Services decreased to 59.2 in Mar from 57.0 in Apr (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8f79665402c84fd78e566add1d5183a0). The Markit US Services PMI™ Business Activity Index decreased from 59.2 in Mar to 57.4 in Apr (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8f79665402c84fd78e566add1d5183a0). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds the indexes consistent with US growth at 3.0 percent in IIQ2015 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8f79665402c84fd78e566add1d5183a0). The Markit US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) decreased to 54.1 in Apr from 55.7 in Mar, which indicates expansion at slower rate (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/53537500330a406db888ccdfe834f91b). New foreign orders decreased. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds that the index suggests restrain of foreign orders because of dollar appreciation (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/53537500330a406db888ccdfe834f91b). The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Report on Business^® changed 0.0 percentage points from 51.5 in Mar to 51.5 in Apr, which indicates growth at the same rate (https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm?navItemNumber=29317). The index of new orders increased 1.7 percentage points from 51.8 in Mar to 53.5 in Apr. The index of new export orders increased 4.0 percentage points from 47.5 in Mar to 51.5 in Apr, expanding at faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report on Business^® PMI increased 1.3 percentage points from 56.5 in Mar to 57.8 in Apr, indicating growth of business activity/production during 69 consecutive months, while the index of new orders increased 1.4 percentage points from 57.8 in Mar to 59.2 in Apr (https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm?navItemNumber=29318). Table USA provides the country economic indicators for the US.

Table USA, US Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index	Mar 12 months NSA ∆%: minus 0.1; ex food and energy ∆%: 1.8 Mar month SA ∆%: 0.2; ex food and energy ∆%: 0.2 Blog 4/19/15
Producer Price Index	Finished Goods Mar 12-month NSA ∆%: -3.3; ex food and energy ∆% 2.0 Mar month SA ∆% = 0.5; ex food and energy ∆%: 0.5 Final Demand Mar 12-month NSA ∆%: -0.8; ex food and energy ∆% 0.9 Mar month SA ∆% = 0.2; ex food and energy ∆%: 0.2 Blog 4/19/15
PCE Inflation	Mar 12-month NSA ∆%: headline 0.3; ex food and energy ∆% 1.3 Blog 5/3/15
Employment Situation	Household Survey: Apr Unemployment Rate SA 5.4% Blog calculation People in Job Stress Mar: 25.6 million NSA, 15.4% of Labor Force Establishment Survey: Apr Nonfarm Jobs +223,000; Private +213,000 jobs created  Mar 12-month Average Hourly Earnings Inflation Adjusted ∆%: 2.2 Blog 5/10/15
Nonfarm Hiring	Nonfarm Hiring fell from 63.3 million in 2006 to 54.2 million in 2013 or by 9.1 million and to 58.7 million in 2014 or by 4.6 million Private-Sector Hiring Feb 2015 3.998 million lower by 0.395 million than 4.393 million in Feb 2006 Blog 4/12/15
GDP Growth	BEA Revised National Income Accounts IQ2012/IQ2011 ∆%: 2.6 IIQ2012/IIQ2011 2.3 IIIQ2012/IIIQ2011 2.7 IVQ2012/IVQ2011 1.6 IQ2013/IQ2012 1.7 IIQ2013/IIQ2012 1.8 IIIQ2013/IIIQ2012 2.3 IVQ2013/IVQ2012 3.1 IQ2014/IQ2013 1.9 IIQ2014/IIQ2013 2.6 IIIQ2014/IIIQ2013 2.7 IVQ2014/IVQ2013 2.4 IQ2015/IVQ2014 3.0 IQ2012 SAAR 2.3 IIQ2012 SAAR 1.6 IIIQ2012 SAAR 2.5 IVQ2012 SAAR 0.1 IQ2013 SAAR 2.7 IIQ2013 SAAR 1.8 IIIQ2013 SAAR 4.5 IVQ2013 SAAR 3.5 IQ2014 SAAR -2.1 IIQ2014 SAAR 4.6 IIIQ2014 SAAR 5.0 IVQ2014 SAAR 2.2 IQ2015 SAAR 0.2 Blog 5/3/15
Real Private Fixed Investment	SAAR IQ2015 ∆% minus 2.5 IVQ2007 to IQ2015: 2.7% Blog 5/3/15
Corporate Profits	IVQ2014 SAAR: Corporate Profits -1.4; Undistributed Profits -6.6 Blog 3/29/15
Personal Income and Consumption	Mar month ∆% SA Real Disposable Personal Income (RDPI) SA ∆% -0.2 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (RPCE): 0.3 12-month Mar NSA ∆%: RDPI: 3.3; RPCE ∆%: 2.7 Blog 5/3/15
Quarterly Services Report	IVQ14/IVQ13 NSA ∆%: Information 4.6 Financial & Insurance 5.2 Blog 3/22/15
Employment Cost Index	Compensation Private IVQ2014 SA ∆%: 0.6 Dec 12 months ∆%: 2.3 Blog 2/1/15
Industrial Production	Mar month SA ∆%: -0.6 Mar 12 months SA ∆%: 2.0 Manufacturing Mar SA 0.1 ∆% Mar 12 months SA ∆% 2.4, NSA 2.4 Capacity Utilization: 78.9 Blog 4/19/15
Productivity and Costs	Nonfarm Business Productivity IQ2015∆% SAAE -1.9; IQ2015/IQ2014 ∆% 0.6; Unit Labor Costs SAAE IQ2015 ∆% 5.0; IQ2015/IQ2014 ∆%: 1.1 Blog 5/10/15
New York Fed Manufacturing Index	General Business Conditions From Mar 6.90 to Apr minus 1.19 New Orders: From Mar minus 2.39 to Apr minus 6.0 Blog 4/19/15
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index	General Index from Mar 5.0 to Apr 7.5 New Orders from Mar 3.9 to Apr 0.7 Blog 4/19/15
Manufacturing Shipments and Orders	New Orders SA Mar ∆% 2.1 Ex Transport 0.0 Jan-Mar NSA New Orders ∆% minus 4.8 Ex transport minus 5.9 Earlier data: Blog 4/5/15
Durable Goods	Mar New Orders SA ∆%: 4.0; ex transport ∆%: minus 0.2 Jan-Mar 15/Jan-Mar 14 New Orders NSA ∆%: 0.1; ex transport ∆% -0.7 Blog 4/26/15
Sales of New Motor Vehicles	Apr 2015 5,409,495; Apr 2014 5,134,255. Apr 15 SAAR 16.50 million, Mar 15 SAAR 17.15 million, Apr 2014 SAAR 16.05 million Blog 5/3/15
Sales of Merchant Wholesalers	Jan-Mar 2015/Jan-Mar 2014 NSA ∆%: Total -2.3; Durable Goods: 4.1; Nondurable Goods: -7.7 EARLIER DATA: Blog 4/12/15
Sales and Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers	Feb 15 12-M NSA ∆%: Sales Total Business -1.6; Manufacturers -3.1 Retailers 0.6; Merchant Wholesalers -1.8 Blog 4/19/15
Sales for Retail and Food Services	Jan-Mar 2015/Jan-Mar 2014 ∆%: Retail and Food Services 2.1; Retail ∆% 1.3 Blog 4/19/15
Value of Construction Put in Place	Feb SAAR month SA ∆%: minus 0.1 Feb 12-month NSA:3.1 Blog 4/5/15
Case-Shiller Home Prices	Feb 2015/ Feb 2014 ∆% NSA: 10 Cities 4.8; 20 Cities: 5.0; National: 4.2 ∆% Feb SA: 10 Cities 0.9 ; 20 Cities: 0.9 Blog 5/3/15
FHFA House Price Index Purchases Only	Feb SA ∆% 0.7; 12 month NSA ∆%: 5.4 Blog 4/26/15
New House Sales	Mar 2015 month SAAR ∆%: minus 11.4 Jan-Mar 2015/Jan-Mar 2014 NSA ∆%: 20.6 Blog 4/26/15
Housing Starts and Permits	Mar Starts month SA ∆% 2.0; Permits ∆%: -5.7 Jan-Mar 2015/Jan-Mar 2014 NSA ∆% Starts 4.0; Permits  ∆% 7.2 Blog 4/19/15
Trade Balance	Balance Mar SA -$51,367 million versus Feb -$35,892 million Exports Mar SA ∆%: 1.6 Imports Mar SA ∆%: 7.7 Goods Exports Jan-Mar 2015/Jan-Mar 2014 NSA ∆%: -5.1 Goods Imports Jan-Mar 2015/Jan-Mar 2014 NSA ∆%: -1.4 Blog 5/10/15
Export and Import Prices	Mar 12-month NSA ∆%: Imports -10.5; Exports -6.7 Blog 4/12/15
Consumer Credit	Mar ∆% annual rate: Total 7.4; Revolving 5.9; Nonrevolving 7.9 Blog 5/10/15
Net Foreign Purchases of Long-term Treasury Securities	Feb Net Foreign Purchases of Long-term US Securities: minus $10.6 billion Major Holders of Treasury Securities: Japan $1224.4 billion; China $1223.7 billion; Total Foreign US Treasury Holdings Jan $6163 billion Blog 4/19/15
Treasury Budget	Fiscal Year 2015/2014 ∆% Mar: Receipts 7.3; Outlays 7.1; Individual Income Taxes 8.1 Deficit Fiscal Year 2011 $1,300 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2012 $1,087 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2013 $680 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2014 $483 billion Blog 4/19/2015
CBO Budget and Economic Outlook	2012 Deficit $1087 B 6.8% GDP Debt $11,281 B 70.4% GDP 2013 Deficit $680 B, 4.1% GDP Debt $11,983 B 72.3% GDP 2014 Deficit $483 B 2.8% GDP Debt $12,779 B 74.1% GDP 2025 Deficit $1,088B, 4.0% GDP Debt $21,605B 78.7% GDP 2039: Long-term Debt/GDP 106% Blog 8/26/12 11/18/12 2/10/13 9/22/13 2/16/14 8/24/14 9/14/14 3/1/15
Commercial Banks Assets and Liabilities	Mar 2015 SAAR ∆%: Securities 0.2 Loans 10.9 Cash Assets 6.9 Deposits 4.8 Blog 4/26/15
Flow of Funds Net Worth of Families and Nonprofits	IVQ2014 ∆ since 2007 Assets +$15,921.0 BN Nonfinancial $898.5 BN Real estate $172.1 BN Financial +15,022.4 BN Net Worth +$16,162.4 BN Blog 3/29/15
Current Account Balance of Payments	IVQ2014 -111,222 MM % GDP 2.6 Blog 3/22/15
Collapse of United States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation	Blog 4/12/15
IMF View	World Real Economic Growth 2015 ∆% 3.5 Blog 4/26/15

Links to blog comments in Table USA:

5/3/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/dollar-devaluation-and-carry-trade.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html

3/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html

3/8/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-competitive-devaluation-rules.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html

9/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitics-monetary-policy-and.html

8/24/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/monetary-policy-world-inflation-waves.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

9/22/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

2/10/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/united-states-unsustainable-fiscal.html

The report of consumer credit outstanding of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is provided in Table VA-1. The data are in seasonally adjusted annual rates both percentage changes and billions of dollars. The estimate of consumer credit “covers most short- and intermediate-term credit extended to individuals, excluding loans secured by real estate” (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/default.htm). Consumer credit is divided into two categories. (1) Revolving consumer credit (REV in Table VA-1) consists mainly of unsecured credit cards. (2) Non-revolving consumer credit (NREV in Table VA-1) “includes automobile loans and all other loans not included in revolving credit, such as loans for mobile homes, education, boats, trailers or vacations” (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/default.htm). In Mar 2015, revolving credit was $889 billion, or 26.4 percent of total consumer credit of $3363 billion, and non-revolving credit was $2474 billion, or 73.6 percent of total consumer credit outstanding. Consumer credit grew at relatively high rates before the recession beginning in IVQ2007 (Dec) and extending to IIQ2009 (Jun) as dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research or NBER (http://www.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html). Percentage changes of consumer credit outstanding fell already in 2009. Rates were still negative in 2010 with decline of 1.0 percent in annual data and sharp decline of 7.6 percent in revolving credit. In IVQ 2014, total consumer credit grew at 6.2 percent with increase of revolving credit at 3.0 percent and increase of non-revolving credit at 7.4 percent. Growth continued in Mar 2015 with total credit at 7.4 percent, revolving at 5.9 percent and non-revolving at 7.9 percent.

Table VA-1, US, Consumer Credit Outstanding, SA, Annual Rate and Billions of Dollars

	Total ∆%	REV ∆%	NRV ∆%	Total $B	REV $B	NREV $B
2015
Mar	7.4	5.9	7.9	3363	889	2474
Feb	5.3	-3.3	8.5	3343	885	2458
Jan	3.6	-3.3	6.1	3328	888	2440
IQ	5.4	-0.3	7.5	3363	889	2474
2014
IVQ	6.2	3.0	7.4	3318	890	2428
IIIQ	6.9	3.5	8.2	3267	883	2384
IIQ	8.2	6.9	8.7	3212	876	2336
IQ	6.3	1.3	8.2	3147	861	2286
2014	7.1	3.7	8.4	3318	890	2428
2013	6.0	1.4	7.9	3099	858	2241
2012	6.1	0.6	8.6	2923	846	2077
2011	4.1	0.2	5.9	2755	841	1914
2010	-1.0	-7.6	2.7	2647	840	1807
2009	-3.9	-8.8	-1.0	2553	917	1636
2008	1.3	0.2	2.0	2651	1005	1646
2007	5.9	8.5	4.3	2529	1008	1521

Note: REV: Revolving; NREV: Non-revolving; ∆%: simple annual rate from unrounded data; Total may not add exactly because of rounding

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/default.htm

Chart VA-1 of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System provides total consumer credit outstanding in millions of dollars measured in the right axis and the finance rate on 24-month personal loans at commercial banks, not seasonally adjusted, measured on the left axis. There was sharp decline of total consumer loans outstanding during the global recession followed by strong recovery. There is long-term decline with fluctuations of the financing rate.

Chart VA-1, US, Total Consumer Credit Owned and Securitized NSA and Financing Rate on 24-month Personal Loans at Commercial Banks NSA, Millions of Dollars and Percent, Feb 1972-Mar 2015

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/default.htm

Chart VA-2 of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System provides percentage changes of total consumer credit outstanding in the US and the financing rate on 24-month personal consumer loans at commercial banks, since 1972. The shaded bars are the cyclical contraction dates of the National Bureau of Economic Research (http://www.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html). Consumer credit is cyclical, declining during contractions as shown by negative percentage changes during economic contractions. There is clear upward trend in 2012-2013 but with significant fluctuations and vacillation in the final segment.

Chart VA-2, US, Percent Change of  Total Consumer Credit, Seasonally Adjusted at an Annual Rate and Finance Rate on 24-month Personal Loans at Commercial Banks NSA, Feb 1972-Mar 2015

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/default.htm

VB Japan. The GDP of Japan grew at 1.0 percent per year on average from 1991 to 2002, with the GDP implicit deflator falling at 0.8 percent per year on average. The average growth rate of Japan’s GDP was 4 percent per year on average from the middle of the 1970s to 1992 (Ito 2004). Low growth in Japan in the 1990s is commonly labeled as “the lost decade” (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 81-115). Table VB-GDP provides yearly growth rates of Japan’s GDP from 1995 to 2014. Growth weakened from 1.9 per cent in 1995 and 2.6 percent in 1996 to contractions of 2.0 percent in 1998 and 0.2 percent in 1999. Growth rates were below 2 percent with exception of 2.3 percent in 2000, 2.4 percent in 2004 and 2.2 percent in 2007. Japan’s GDP contracted sharply by 1.0 percent in 2008 and 5.5 percent in 2009. As in most advanced economies, growth was robust at 4.7 percent in 2010 but mediocre at minus 0.5 percent in 2011 because of the tsunami and 1.8 percent in 2012. Japan’s GDP grew 1.6 percent in 2013 and stagnated in 2014. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). Japan’s real GDP in calendar year 2014 is 0.7 percent higher than in calendar year 2007 (http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html).

Table VB-GDP, Japan, Yearly Percentage Change of GDP  ∆%

Calendar Year	∆%
1995	1.9
1996	2.6
1997	1.6
1998	-2.0
1999	-0.2
2000	2.3
2001	0.4
2002	0.3
2003	1.7
2004	2.4
2005	1.3
2006	1.7
2007	2.2
2008	-1.0
2009	-5.5
2010	4.7
2011	-0.5
2012	1.8
2013	1.6
2014	0.0

Source: Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html

Table VB-BOJF provides the forecasts of economic activity and inflation in Japan by the majority of members of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, which is part of their Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf) with changes on Jul 21, 2015 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k150121a.pdf). For fiscal 2015, the forecast is of growth of GDP between 1.5 to 2.1 percent, with the all items CPI less fresh food 0.2 to 1.2 to 3.3 percent (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf). The critical difference is forecast of the CPI excluding fresh food of 0.2 to 1.2 percent in 2015 and 1.2 to 2.2 percent in 2016 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf). Consumer price inflation in Japan excluding fresh food was minus 0.4 percent in Mar 2014 and 2.2 percent in 12 months (http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1581.htm), significantly because of the increase of the tax on value added of consumption in Apr 2014. The new monetary policy of the Bank of Japan aims to increase inflation to 2 percent. These forecasts are biannual in Apr and Oct. The Cabinet Office, Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan released on Jan 22, 2013, a “Joint Statement of the Government and the Bank of Japan on Overcoming Deflation and Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130122c.pdf) with the important change of increasing the inflation target of monetary policy from 1 percent to 2 percent:

“The Bank of Japan conducts monetary policy based on the principle that the policy shall be aimed at achieving price stability, thereby contributing to the sound development of the national economy, and is responsible for maintaining financial system stability. The Bank aims to achieve price stability on a sustainable basis, given that there are various factors that affect prices in the short run.

The Bank recognizes that the inflation rate consistent with price stability on a sustainable basis will rise as efforts by a wide range of entities toward strengthening competitiveness and growth potential of Japan's economy make progress. Based on this recognition, the Bank sets the price stability target at 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index.

Under the price stability target specified above, the Bank will pursue monetary easing and aim to achieve this target at the earliest possible time. Taking into consideration that it will take considerable time before the effects of monetary policy permeate the economy, the Bank will ascertain whether there is any significant risk to the sustainability of economic growth, including from the accumulation of financial imbalances.”

The Bank of Japan also provided explicit analysis of its view on price stability in a “Background note regarding the Bank’s thinking on price stability” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/data/rel130123a1.pdf http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130123a.htm/). The Bank of Japan also amended “Principal terms and conditions for the Asset Purchase Program” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130122a.pdf): “Asset purchases and loan provision shall be conducted up to the maximum outstanding amounts by the end of 2013. From January 2014, the Bank shall purchase financial assets and provide loans every month, the amount of which shall be determined pursuant to the relevant rules of the Bank.”

Financial markets in Japan and worldwide were shocked by new bold measures of “quantitative and qualitative monetary easing” by the Bank of Japan (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The objective of policy is to “achieve the price stability target of 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) at the earliest possible time, with a time horizon of about two years” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The main elements of the new policy are as follows:

1. Monetary Base Control. Most central banks in the world pursue interest rates instead of monetary aggregates, injecting bank reserves to lower interest rates to desired levels. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has shifted back to monetary aggregates, conducting money market operations with the objective of increasing base money, or monetary liabilities of the government, at the annual rate of 60 to 70 trillion yen. The BOJ estimates base money outstanding at “138 trillion yen at end-2012) and plans to increase it to “200 trillion yen at end-2012 and 270 trillion yen at end 2014” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
2. Maturity Extension of Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds. Purchases of bonds will be extended even up to bonds with maturity of 40 years with the guideline of extending the average maturity of BOJ bond purchases from three to seven years. The BOJ estimates the current average maturity of Japanese government bonds (JGB) at around seven years. The BOJ plans to purchase about 7.5 trillion yen per month (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130404d.pdf). Takashi Nakamichi, Tatsuo Ito and Phred Dvorak, wiring on “Bank of Japan mounts bid for revival,” on Apr 4, 2013, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323646604578401633067110420.html), find that the limit of maturities of three years on purchases of JGBs was designed to avoid views that the BOJ would finance uncontrolled government deficits.
3. Seigniorage. The BOJ is pursuing coordination with the government that will take measures to establish “sustainable fiscal structure with a view to ensuring the credibility of fiscal management” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
4. Diversification of Asset Purchases. The BOJ will engage in transactions of exchange traded funds (ETF) and real estate investment trusts (REITS) and not solely on purchases of JGBs. Purchases of ETFs will be at an annual rate of increase of one trillion yen and purchases of REITS at 30 billion yen.
5. Bank Lending Facility and Growth Supporting Funding Facility. At the meeting on Feb 18, the Bank of Japan doubled the scale of these lending facilities to prevent their expiration in the near future (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140218a.pdf).

Table VB-BOJF provides the forecasts of economic activity and inflation in Japan by the majority of members of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, which is part of their Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k150121a.pdf) with changes on Jul 21, 2015 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k150121a.pdf). For fiscal 2014, the forecast is of growth of GDP between minus 0.7 to minus 0.3 percent, with the all items CPI less fresh food 2.9 to 3.3 percent (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k150121a.pdf). The critical difference is forecast of the CPI excluding fresh food of 0.3 to 1.4 percent in 2015 and 0.9 to 2.3 percent in 2016 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k150121a.pdf). Consumer price inflation in Japan excluding fresh food was minus 0.2 percent in Dec 2014 and 2.5 percent in 12 months (http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1581.htm), significantly because of the increase of the tax on value added of consumption in Apr 2014. The new monetary policy of the Bank of Japan aims to increase inflation to 2 percent. These forecasts are biannual in Apr and Oct. The Cabinet Office, Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan released on Jan 22, 2013, a “Joint Statement of the Government and the Bank of Japan on Overcoming Deflation and Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130122c.pdf) with the important change of increasing the inflation target of monetary policy from 1 percent to 2 percent:

“The Bank of Japan conducts monetary policy based on the principle that the policy shall be aimed at achieving price stability, thereby contributing to the sound development of the national economy, and is responsible for maintaining financial system stability. The Bank aims to achieve price stability on a sustainable basis, given that there are various factors that affect prices in the short run.

The Bank recognizes that the inflation rate consistent with price stability on a sustainable basis will rise as efforts by a wide range of entities toward strengthening competitiveness and growth potential of Japan's economy make progress. Based on this recognition, the Bank sets the price stability target at 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index.

Under the price stability target specified above, the Bank will pursue monetary easing and aim to achieve this target at the earliest possible time. Taking into consideration that it will take considerable time before the effects of monetary policy permeate the economy, the Bank will ascertain whether there is any significant risk to the sustainability of economic growth, including from the accumulation of financial imbalances.”

The Bank of Japan also provided explicit analysis of its view on price stability in a “Background note regarding the Bank’s thinking on price stability” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/data/rel130123a1.pdf http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130123a.htm/). The Bank of Japan also amended “Principal terms and conditions for the Asset Purchase Program” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130122a.pdf): “Asset purchases and loan provision shall be conducted up to the maximum outstanding amounts by the end of 2013. From January 2014, the Bank shall purchase financial assets and provide loans every month, the amount of which shall be determined pursuant to the relevant rules of the Bank.”

Financial markets in Japan and worldwide were shocked by new bold measures of “quantitative and qualitative monetary easing” by the Bank of Japan (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The objective of policy is to “achieve the price stability target of 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) at the earliest possible time, with a time horizon of about two years” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The main elements of the new policy are as follows:

1. Monetary Base Control. Most central banks in the world pursue interest rates instead of monetary aggregates, injecting bank reserves to lower interest rates to desired levels. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has shifted back to monetary aggregates, conducting money market operations with the objective of increasing base money, or monetary liabilities of the government, at the annual rate of 60 to 70 trillion yen. The BOJ estimates base money outstanding at “138 trillion yen at end-2012) and plans to increase it to “200 trillion yen at end-2012 and 270 trillion yen at end 2014” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
2. Maturity Extension of Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds. Purchases of bonds will be extended even up to bonds with maturity of 40 years with the guideline of extending the average maturity of BOJ bond purchases from three to seven years. The BOJ estimates the current average maturity of Japanese government bonds (JGB) at around seven years. The BOJ plans to purchase about 7.5 trillion yen per month (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130404d.pdf). Takashi Nakamichi, Tatsuo Ito and Phred Dvorak, wiring on “Bank of Japan mounts bid for revival,” on Apr 4, 2013, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323646604578401633067110420.html), find that the limit of maturities of three years on purchases of JGBs was designed to avoid views that the BOJ would finance uncontrolled government deficits.
3. Seigniorage. The BOJ is pursuing coordination with the government that will take measures to establish “sustainable fiscal structure with a view to ensuring the credibility of fiscal management” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
4. Diversification of Asset Purchases. The BOJ will engage in transactions of exchange traded funds (ETF) and real estate investment trusts (REITS) and not solely on purchases of JGBs. Purchases of ETFs will be at an annual rate of increase of one trillion yen and purchases of REITS at 30 billion yen.
5. Bank Lending Facility and Growth Supporting Funding Facility. At the meeting on Feb 18, the Bank of Japan doubled the scale of these lending facilities to prevent their expiration in the near future (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140218a.pdf).

Table VB-BOJF, Bank of Japan, Forecasts of the Majority of Members of the Policy Board, % Year on Year

Fiscal Year Date of Forecast	Real GDP	CPI All Items Less Fresh Food	Excluding Effects of Consumption Tax Hikes
2013
Apr 2014	+2.2 to +2.3 [+2.2]	+0.8
Jan 2014	+2.5 to +2.9 [+2.7]	+0.7 to +0.9 [+0.7]
Oct 2013	+2.6 to +3.0 [+2.7]	+0.6 to +1.0 [+0.7]
Jul 2013	+2.5 to +3.0 [+2.8]	+0.5 to +0.8 [+0.6]
2014
Apr 2015	-1.0 to -0.8 [-0.9]	+2.8	+0.8
Jan 2015	-0.6 to -0.4 [-0.5]	+2.9 to +3.2 [+2.9]	+0.9 to +1.2 [+0.9]
Oct 2014	+0.2 to +0.7 [+0.5]	+3.1 to +3.4 [+3.2]	+1.1 to +1.4 [+1.2]
Jul 2014	+0.6 to +1.3 [+1.0]	+3.2 to +3.5 [+3.3]	+1.2 to +1.5 [+1.3]
Apr 2014	+0.8 to +1.3 [+1.1]	+3.0 to +3.5 [+3.3]	+1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3]
Jan 2014	+0.9 to 1.5 [+1.4]	+2.9 to +3.6 [+3.3]	+0.9 to +1.6 [+1.3]
Oct 2013	+0.9 to +1.5 [+1.5]	+2.8 to +3.6 [+3.3]	+0.8 to +1.6 [+1.3]
Jul 2013	+0.8 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+2.7 to +3.6 [+3.3]	+0.7 to +1.6 [+1.3]
2015
Apr 2015	+1.5 to +2.1 [+2.0]	+0.2 to 1.2 [+0.8]	+0.2 to 1.2 [+0.8]
Jan 2015	+1.8 to +2.3 [+2.1]	+0.4 to +1.3 [+1.0]	+0.4 to +1.3 [+1.0]
Oct 2014	+1.2 to +1.7 [+1.5]	+1.8 to 2.6 [+2.4]	+1.1 to +1.9 [+1.7]
Jul 2014	+1.2 to +1.6 [+1.5]	+1.9 to +2.8 [+2.6]	+1.2 to +2.1 [+1.9]
Apr 2014	+1.2 to +1.5 [+1.5]	+1.9 to +2.8 [+2.6]	+1.2 to +2.1 [+1.9]
Jan 2014	+1.2 to +1.8 [+1.5]	+1.7 to +2.9 [+2.6]	+1.0 to +2.2 [+1.9]
Oct 2013	+1.3 to +1.8 [+1.5]	+1.6 to +2.9 [+2.6]	+0.9 to +2.2 [+1.9]
Jul 2013	+1.3 to +1.9 [+1.5]	+1.6 to +2.9 [+2.6]	+0.9 to +2.2 [+1.9]
2016
Apr 2015	+1.4 to +1.8 [+1.5]	+1.2 to +2.2 [+2.0]	+1.2 to +2.2 [+2.0]
Jan 2015	+1.5 to +1.7 [+1.6]	+1.5 to +2.3 [+2.2]	+1.5 to +2.3 [+2.2]
Oct 2014	+1.0 to +1.4 [+1.2]	+1.9 to 3.0 [+2.8]	+1.2 to 2.3 [+2.1]
Jul 2014	+1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+2.0 to +3.0 [+2.8]	+1.3 to +2.3 [+2.1]
Apr 2014	+1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+2.0 to +3.0 [+2.8]	+1.3 to +2.3 [+2.1]
2017
Apr 2015	+0.1 to +0.5 [+0.2]	+2.7 to +3.4 [+3.2]	+1.4 to +2.1 [+1.9]

Figures in brackets are the median of forecasts of Policy Board members

Source: Policy Board, Bank of Japan

Figures in brackets are the median of forecasts of Policy Board members

Source: Policy Board, Bank of Japan

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k150121a.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140715a.pdf

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1504b.pdf

The Markit/JMMA Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI Index™ with the Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI™ decreased from 50.3 in Mar to 49.7 in Apr and the Flash Japan Manufacturing Output Index™ decreased from 52.0 in Mar to 49.7 in Apr (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/2c56e9c9e3ad4210be7839132c683da4). New export orders increased at slower pace. Amy Brownbill, Economist at Markit, finds weaker improvement in Japan’s manufacturing with devaluation of the yen relative to the dollar enhancing competitiveness (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/2c56e9c9e3ad4210be7839132c683da4). The Markit Composite Output PMI Index increased from 48.4 in Mar to 50.7 in Apr, indicating mildly improving business activity (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/256c1de800394daa9c16cfd21fc1da9a). The Markit Business Activity Index of Services increased to 51.3 in Apr from 48.4 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/256c1de800394daa9c16cfd21fc1da9a). Amy Brownbill, Ecoomist at Markit and author of the report, finds improved conditions with positive business expectations (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/256c1de800394daa9c16cfd21fc1da9a). The Markit/JMMA Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI™), seasonally adjusted, decreased from 50.3 in Mar to 49.9 in Apr (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/5d78d5dab2e248818c2dd7292148740a). New orders declined while growth of foreign orders slowed. Amy Brownbill, Economist at Markit, finds manufacturing contracting with slowing growth foreign orders even with devaluation of the yen (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/5d78d5dab2e248818c2dd7292148740a).Table JPY provides the country data table for Japan.

Table JPY, Japan, Economic Indicators

Historical GDP and CPI	1981-2010 Real GDP Growth and CPI Inflation 1981-2010 Blog 8/9/11 Table 26
Corporate Goods Prices	Mar ∆% 0.3 12 months ∆% 0.7 Blog 4/19/15
Consumer Price Index	Mar NSA ∆% 0.4; Mar 12 months NSA ∆% 2.3 Blog 5/3/15
Real GDP Growth	IVQ2014 ∆%: 0.4 on IIIQ2014;  IVQ2014 SAAR 1.5; ∆% from quarter a year earlier: -0.8 % Blog 6/16/13 8/18/13 9/15/13 11/17/13 12/15/13 2/23/14 3/16/14 5/18/14 6/15/14 8/17/14 9/14/14 11/23/14 12/14/14 2/22/15 3/15/15
Employment Report	Mar Unemployed 2.28 million Change in unemployed since last year: minus 180 thousand Unemployment rate: 3.4 % Blog 5/3/15
All Industry Indices	Feb month SA ∆% 0.1 12-month NSA ∆% -1.2 Blog 4/26/15
Industrial Production	Feb SA month ∆%: -3.4 12-month NSA ∆% -2.6 Blog 3/29/15
Machine Orders	Total Feb ∆% -1.4 Private ∆%: -10.4 Feb ∆% Excluding Volatile Orders minus 0.4 Blog 4/19/15
Tertiary Index	Feb month SA ∆% 0.3 Feb 12 months NSA ∆% minus -0.4 Blog 4/26/15
Wholesale and Retail Sales	Feb 12 months: Total ∆%: -3.1 Wholesale ∆%: -3.7 Retail ∆%: -1.8 Blog 3/29/15
Family Income and Expenditure Survey	Feb 12-month ∆% total nominal consumption -0.4, real -2.9 Blog 3/29/15
Trade Balance	Exports Mar 12 months ∆%: 8.5 Imports Mar 12 months ∆% -14.5 Blog 4/26/15

Links to blog comments in Table JPY:

5/3/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/dollar-devaluation-and-carry-trade.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

3/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

2/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html

12/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/global-financial-and-economic-risk.html

11/23/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.htm

9/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitics-monetary-policy-and.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

6/15/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financialgeopolitical-risks-recovery.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html

2/23/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html

12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

VC China. China estimates an index of nonmanufacturing purchasing managers based on a sample of 1200 nonmanufacturing enterprises across the country (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Table CIPMNM provides this index and components. The total index increased from 55.7 in Jan 2011 to 58.0 in Mar 2012, decreasing to 53.9 in Aug 2013. The index decreased from 56.0 in Nov 2013 to 54.6 in Dec 2013, easing to 53.4 in Jan 2014. The index moved to 53.7 in Mar 2015. The index of new orders increased from 52.2 in Jan 2012 to 54.3 in Dec 2012 but fell to 50.1 in May 2013, barely above the neutral frontier of 50.0. The index of new orders stabilized at 51.0 in Nov-Dec 2013, easing to 50.9 in Jan 2014. The index of new orders moved to 50.3 in Mar 2015.

Table CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted

	Total Index	New Orders	Interm. Input Prices	Subs Prices	Exp
Mar 2015	53.7	50.3	50.0	48.4	58.8
Feb	53.9	51.2	52.5	51.2	58.7
Jan	53.7	50.2	47.6	46.9	59.6
Dec 2014	54.1	50.5	50.1	47.3	59.5
Nov	53.9	50.1	50.6	47.7	59.7
Oct	53.8	51.0	52.0	48.8	59.9
Sep	54.0	49.5	49.8	47.3	60.9
Aug	54.4	50.0	52.2	48.3	61.2
Jul	54.2	50.7	53.4	49.5	61.5
Jun	55.0	50.7	56.0	50.8	60.4
May	55.5	52.7	54.5	49.0	60.7
Apr	54.8	50.8	52.4	49.4	61.5
Mar	54.5	50.8	52.8	49.5	61.5
Feb	55.0	51.4	52.1	49.0	59.9
Jan	53.4	50.9	54.5	50.1	58.1
Dec 2013	54.6	51.0	56.9	52.0	58.7
Nov	56.0	51.0	54.8	49.5	61.3
Oct	56.3	51.6	56.1	51.4	60.5
Sep	55.4	53.4	56.7	50.6	60.1
Aug	53.9	50.9	57.1	51.2	62.9
Jul	54.1	50.3	58.2	52.4	63.9
Jun	53.9	50.3	55.0	50.6	61.8
May	54.3	50.1	54.4	50.7	62.9
Apr	54.5	50.9	51.1	47.6	62.5
Mar	55.6	52.0	55.3	50.0	62.4
Feb	54.5	51.8	56.2	51.1	62.7
Jan	56.2	53.7	58.2	50.9	61.4
Dec 2012	56.1	54.3	53.8	50.0	64.6
Nov	55.6	53.2	52.5	48.4	64.6
Oct	55.5	51.6	58.1	50.5	63.4
Sep	53.7	51.8	57.5	51.3	60.9
Aug	56.3	52.7	57.6	51.2	63.2
Jul	55.6	53.2	49.7	48.7	63.9
Jun	56.7	53.7	52.1	48.6	65.5
May	55.2	52.5	53.6	48.5	65.4
Apr	56.1	52.7	57.9	50.3	66.1
Mar	58.0	53.5	60.2	52.0	66.6
Feb	57.3	52.7	59.0	51.2	63.8
Jan	55.7	52.2	58.2	51.1	65.3

Notes: Interm.: Intermediate; Subs: Subscription; Exp: Business Expectations

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart CIPMNM provides China’s nonmanufacturing purchasing managers’ index. The index fell from 56.0 in Oct 2013 to 53.7 in Mar 2015.

Chart CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Table CIPMMFG provides the index of purchasing managers of manufacturing seasonally adjusted of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The general index (IPM) rose from 50.5 in Jan 2012 to 53.3 in Apr 2012, falling to 49.2 in Aug 2012, rebounding to 50.6 in Dec 2012. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013, barely above the neutral frontier at 50.0, recovering to 51.4 in Nov 2013 but falling to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.5 in Jan 2014, 50.1 in Dec 2014 and 50.1 in Mar 2015. The index of new orders fell from 54.5 in Apr 2012 to 51.2 in Dec 2012. The index of new orders fell from 52.3 in Nov 2013 to 52.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.9 in Jan 2014 and moved to 50.4 in Dec 2014. The index moved to 50.2 in Mar 2015.

Table CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted

	IPM	PI	NOI	INV	EMP	SDEL
2015
Mar	50.1	52.1	50.2	48.0	48.4	50.1
Feb	49.9	51.4	50.4	48.2	47.8	49.9
Jan	49.8	51.7	50.2	47.3	47.9	50.2
2014
Dec	50.1	52.2	50.4	47.5	48.1	49.9
Nov	50.3	52.5	50.9	47.7	48.2	50.3
Oct	50.8	53.1	51.6	48.4	48.4	50.1
Sep	51.1	53.6	52.2	48.8	48.2	50.1
Aug	51.1	53.2	52.5	48.6	48.2	50.0
Jul	51.7	54.2	53.6	49.0	48.3	50.2
Jun	51.0	53.0	52.8	48.0	48.6	50.5
May	50.8	52.8	52.3	48.0	48.2	50.3
Apr	50.4	52.5	51.2	48.1	48.3	50.1
Mar	50.3	52.7	50.6	47.8	48.3	49.8
Feb	50.2	52.6	50.5	47.4	48.0	49.9
Jan	50.5	53.0	50.9	47.8	48.2	49.8
Dec 2013	51.0	53.9	52.0	47.6	48.7	50.5
Nov	51.4	54.5	52.3	47.8	49.6	50.6
Oct	51.4	54.4	52.5	48.6	49.2	50.8
Sep	51.1	52.9	52.8	48.5	49.1	50.8
Aug	51.0	52.6	52.4	48.0	49.3	50.4
Jul	50.3	52.4	50.6	47.6	49.1	50.1
Jun	50.1	52.0	50.4	47.4	48.7	50.3
May	50.8	53.3	51.8	47.6	48.8	50.8
Apr	50.6	52.6	51.7	47.5	49.0	50.8
Mar	50.9	52.7	52.3	47.5	49.8	51.1
Feb	50.1	51.2	50.1	49.5	47.6	48.3
Jan	50.4	51.3	51.6	50.1	47.8	50.0
Dec 2012	50.6	52.0	51.2	47.3	49.0	48.8
Nov	50.6	52.5	51.2	47.9	48.7	49.9
Oct	50.2	52.1	50.4	47.3	49.2	50.1
Sep	49.8	51.3	49.8	47.0	48.9	49.5
Aug	49.2	50.9	48.7	45.1	49.1	50.0
Jul	50.1	51.8	49.0	48.5	49.5	49.0
Jun	50.2	52.0	49.2	48.2	49.7	49.1
May	50.4	52.9	49.8	45.1	50.5	49.0
Apr	53.3	57.2	54.5	48.5	51.0	49.6
Mar	53.1	55.2	55.1	49.5	51.0	48.9
Feb	51.0	53.8	51.0	48.8	49.5	50.3
Jan	50.5	53.6	50.4	49.7	47.1	49.7

IPM: Index of Purchasing Managers; PI: Production Index; NOI: New Orders Index; EMP: Employed Person Index; SDEL: Supplier Delivery Time Index

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

China estimates the manufacturing index of purchasing managers on the basis of a sample of 820 enterprises (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Chart CIPMMFG provides the manufacturing index of purchasing managers. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013. The index decreased from 51.4 in Nov 2013 to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index moved to 50.1 in Mar 2015.

Chart CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Cumulative growth of China’s GDP in IQ2015 relative to the same period in 2014 was 7.0 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDP. Secondary industry accounts for 42.9 percent of cumulative GDP in IQ2015. In cumulative IQ2015, industry accounts for 38.0 percent of GDP and construction for 5.1 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 51.6 percent of cumulative GDP in IQ2015 and primary industry for 5.5 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is shifting to lower growth rates with improvement in living standards. The bottom block of Table VC-GDP provides quarter-on-quarter growth rates of GDP and their annual equivalent. China’s GDP growth decelerated significantly from annual equivalent 10.4 percent in IIQ2011 to 7.4 percent in IVQ2011 and 5.7 percent in IQ2012, rebounding to 8.7 percent in IIQ2012, 8.2 percent in IIIQ2012 and 7.8 percent in IVQ2012. Annual equivalent growth in IQ2013 fell to 7.0 percent and to 7.4 percent in IIQ2013, rebounding to 9.5 percent in IIIQ2013. Annual equivalent growth was 7.4 percent in IVQ2013, declining to 6.6 percent in IQ2014 and increasing to 8.2 percent in IIQ2014. Annual equivalent growth slowed to 7.8 percent in IIIQ2014 and 6.1 percent in IVQ2014. Growth slowed to annual equivalent 5.3 percent in IQ2015.

Table VC-GDP, China, Quarterly Growth of GDP, Current CNY 100 Million and Inflation Adjusted ∆%

Cumulative GDP IVQ2014	Value Current CNY Billion	IQ2015 Year-on-Year Constant Prices ∆%
GDP	14,066.7	7.0
Primary Industry	777.0	3.2
Farming	807.9	3.3
Secondary Industry	6,029.2	6.4
Industry	5,345.2	6.1
Construction	715.0	8.8
Tertiary Industry	7,260.5	7.9
Transport, Storage, Post	707.2	5.5
Wholesale, Retail Trades	1,346.0	5.8
Accommodation and Restaurants	255.9	5.3
Finance	1,366.9	15.9
Real Estate	970.3	2.0
Other	2,552.4	9.0
Growth in Quarter Relative to Prior Quarter	∆% on Prior Quarter	∆% Annual Equivalent
2015
IQ2015	1.3	5.3
2014
IVQ2014	1.5	6.1
IIIQ2014	1.9	7.8
IIQ2014	2.0	8.2
IQ2014	1.6	6.6
2013
IVQ2013	1.8	7.4
IIIQ2013	2.3	9.5
IIQ2013	1.8	7.4
IQ2013	1.7	7.0
2012
IVQ2012	1.9	7.8
IIIQ2012	2.0	8.2
IIQ2012	2.1	8.7
IQ2012	1.4	5.7
2011
IVQ2011	1.8	7.4
IIIQ2011	2.2	9.1
IIQ2011	2.5	10.4
IQ2011	2.3	9.5

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Cumulative growth of China’s GDP in IQ2015 relative to the same period in 2014 was 7.0 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDPA. Secondary industry accounts for 42.6 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2014. Secondary industry accounts for 42.9 percent of cumulative GDP in IQ2015. In cumulative IQ2015, industry accounts for 38.0 percent of GDP and construction for 5.1 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 51.6 percent of cumulative GDP in IQ2015 and primary industry for 5.5 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is shifting to lower growth rates with improvement in living standards. GDP growth decelerated from 12.1 percent in IQ2010 and 11.2 percent in IIQ2010 to 7.8 percent in IQ2013, 7.5 percent in IIQ2013 and 7.9 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP grew 7.6 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to IIIQ2013, which is equivalent to 7.4 percent per year. GDP grew 7.4 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.6 percent in IQ2014 that is equivalent to 6.6 percent per year. GP grew 7.5 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 2.0 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is equivalent 8.2 percent. In IIIQ2014, GDP grew 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier and 1.9 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is 7.8 percent in annual equivalent. GDP grew 1.5 percent in IVQ2014, which is 6.1 percent in annual equivalent and 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2015, GDP grew 1.3 percent, which is equivalent in a year to a year earlier.

Table VC-GDPA, China, Growth Rate of GDP, ∆% Relative to a Year Earlier and ∆% Relative to Prior Quarter

	IQ2015
GDP	7.0
Primary Industry	3.2
Secondary Industry	6.4
Tertiary Industry	7.9
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.3
	IQ 2013	IIQ 2013	IIIQ 2013	IVQ 2013	IQ 2014	IIQ 2014	IIIQ 2014	IVQ 2014
GDP	7.8	7.5	7.9	7.6	7.4	7.5	7.3	7.3
Primary Industry	3.4	3.0	3.4	4.0	3.5	3.9	4.2	4.1
Secondary Industry	7.8	7.6	7.8	7.8	7.3	7.4	7.4	7.3
Tertiary Industry	8.3	8.3	8.4	8.3	7.1	8.0	7.9	8.1
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.7	1.8	2.3	1.8	1.6	2.0	1.9	1.5
	IQ 2011	IIQ 2011	IIIQ 2011	IVQ 2011	IQ  2012	IIQ 2012	IIIQ 2012	IVQ 2012
GDP	9.7	9.5	9.1	8.9	8.1	7.6	7.4	7.9
Primary Industry	3.5	3.2	3.8	4.5	3.8	4.3	4.2	4.5
Secondary Industry	11.1	11.0	10.8	10.6	9.1	8.3	8.1	8.1
Tertiary Industry	9.1	9.2	9.0	8.9	7.5	7.7	7.9	8.1
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	2.3	2.5	2.2	1.8	1.4	2.1	2.0	1.9
	IQ 2010	IIQ 2010	IIIQ 2010	IVQ 2010
GDP	12.1	11.2	10.7	12.1
Primary Industry	3.8	3.6	4.0	3.8
Secondary Industry	14.5	13.3	12.6	14.5
Tertiary Industry	10.5	9.9	9.7	10.5

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart VC-GDP of the National Bureau of Statistics of China provides annual value and growth rates of GDP. China’s GDP growth in 2013 is still high at 7.7 percent but at the lowest rhythm in five years.

Chart VC-GDP, China, Gross Domestic Product, Million Yuan and ∆%, 2009-2013

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart VC-FXR provides China’s foreign exchange reserves. FX reserves grew from $2399.2 billion in 2009 to $3821.3 billion in 2013 driven by high growth of China’s trade surplus.

Chart VC-FXR, China, Foreign Exchange Reserves, 2009-2013

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Chart VC-Trade provides China’s imports and exports. Exports exceeded imports with resulting large trade balance surpluses that increased foreign exchange reserves.

Chart VC-Trade, China, Imports and Exports of Goods, 2009-2013, $100 Million US Dollars

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) compiled by Markit (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/42e219843597406983d9e4633c324d53) is weakening. The overall Flash HSBC China Manufacturing PMI^™ decreased from 49.6 in Mar to 49.2 in Apr, while the Flash HSBC China Manufacturing Output Index decreased from 51.3 in Mar to 50.4 in Apr, indicating moderate growth. Exports orders indicate expansion. Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds moderate deterioration in manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/42e219843597406983d9e4633c324d53). The HSBC China Services PMI^™, compiled by Markit, shows the HSBC Composite Output, combining manufacturing and services, decreasing from 51.8 in Mar to 51.3 in Apr (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4b2a07b43cc1485ab3baab5bb5c64856). Annabel Fiddes, Economist at Markit, finds stronger services with relatively weaker manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4b2a07b43cc1485ab3baab5bb5c64856). The HSBC China Services Business Activity index increased from 52.3 in Mar to 52.9 in Apr (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4b2a07b43cc1485ab3baab5bb5c64856). The HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™), compiled by Markit, decreased to 48.9 in Apr from 49.6 in Mar, indicating moderate deterioration in manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c2eec91c11d34e57a282d2a15f6f00ee). New export orders increased modestly. Annabel Fiddes, Economist at Markit, finds weak internal demand (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c2eec91c11d34e57a282d2a15f6f00ee). Table CNY provides the country data table for China.

Table CNY, China, Economic Indicators

Price Indexes for Industry	Mar 12-month ∆%: minus 4.6 Mar month ∆%: -0.1 Blog 4/12/15
Consumer Price Index	Mar 12-month ∆%: 1.4 Feb month ∆%: -0.5 Blog 4/12/15
Value Added of Industry	Mar month ∆%: 0.25 Jan-Mar 2015/Jan-Mar 2014 ∆%: 6.4 Blog 4/19/15
GDP Growth Rate	Year IQ2015 ∆%: 7.0 First Quarter 2015 ∆%: 7.0 Quarter IQ2015 AE ∆%: 5.3 Blog 4/26/15
Investment in Fixed Assets	Total Jan-Mar 2015 ∆%: 13.5 Real estate development: 8.5 Blog 4/19/15
Retail Sales	Mar month ∆%: 0.71 Jan-Mar 12 month ∆%: NA Jan-Mar ∆%: 10.6 Blog 4/19/15
Trade Balance	Apr balance $34.13 billion Exports 12M ∆% -6.4 Imports 12M ∆% -16.2 Cumulative Apr 2015: $158.16 billion Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15

Links to blog comments in Table CNY:

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

VD Euro Area. Table VD-EUR provides yearly growth rates of the combined GDP of the members of the European Monetary Union (EMU) or euro area since 1999. Growth was very strong at 3.3 percent in 2006 and 3.1 percent in 2007. The global recession had strong impact with growth of only 0.5 percent in 2008 and decline of 4.5 percent in 2009. Recovery was at lower growth rates of 2.0 percent in 2010 and 1.6 percent in 2011. EUROSTAT estimates growth of GDP of the euro area of minus 0.8 percent in 2012 and minus 0.4 percent in 2013 but 0.9 percent in 2014.

Table VD-EUR, Euro Area, Yearly Percentage Change of Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, Unemployment and GDP ∆%

Year	HICP ∆%	Unemployment %	GDP ∆%
1999	1.2	9.7	2.9
2000	2.2	8.9	3.8
2001	2.4	8.3	2.1
2002	2.3	8.6	0.9
2003	2.1	9.1	0.7
2004	2.2	9.3	2.2
2005	2.2	9.1	1.7
2006	2.2	8.4	3.3
2007	2.2	7.5	3.1
2008	3.3	7.6	0.5
2009	0.3	9.6	-4.5
2010	1.6	10.2	2.0
2011	2.7	10.2	1.6
2012	2.5	11.4	-0.8
2013	1.3	12.0	-0.4
2014	0.4	11.6	0.9

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

The GDP of the euro area in 2013 in current US dollars in the dataset of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is $12,753.7 billion or 17.1 percent of world GDP of $74,699.3 billion (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/weodata/weoselgr.aspx). The sum of the GDP of France $2807.3 billion with the GDP of Germany of $3635.9 billion, Italy of $2071.9 billion and Spain $1358.7 billion is $9873.8 billion or 77.4 percent of total euro area GDP and 13.2 percent of World GDP. The four largest economies account for slightly more than three quarters of economic activity of the euro area. Table VD-EUR1 is constructed with the dataset of EUROSTAT, providing growth rates of the euro area as a whole and of the largest four economies of Germany, France, Italy and Spain annually from 1996 to 2014. The impact of the global recession on the overall euro area economy and on the four largest economies was quite strong. There was sharp contraction in 2009 and growth rates have not rebounded to earlier growth with exception of Germany in 2010 and 2011.

Table VD-EUR1, Euro Area, Real GDP Growth Rate, ∆%

	Euro Area	Germany	France	Italy	Spain
2014	0.9	1.6	0.4	-0.4	1.4
2013	-0.4	0.1	0.3	-1.7	-1.2
2012	-0.8	0.4	0.3	-2.8	-2.1
2011	1.6	3.6	2.1	0.6	-0.6
2010	2.0	4.1	2.0	1.7	0.0
2009	-4.5	-5.6	-2.9	-5.5	-3.6
2008	0.5	1.1	0.2	-1.0	1.1
2007	3.1	3.3	2.4	1.5	3.8
2006	3.3	3.7	2.4	2.0	4.2
2005	1.7	0.7	1.6	0.9	3.7
2004	2.2	1.2	2.8	1.6	3.2
2003	0.7	-0.7	0.8	0.2	3.2
2002	0.9	0.0	1.1	0.3	2.9
2001	2.1	1.7	2.0	1.8	4.0
2000	3.8	3.0	3.9	3.7	5.3
1999	2.9	2.0	3.4	1.6	4.5
1998	2.9	2.0	3.6	1.4	4.3
1997	2.6	1.8	2.3	1.8	3.7
1996	1.6	0.8	1.4	1.3	2.7

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

The Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index of the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI^®, combining activity in manufacturing and services, decreased from 54.0 in Mar to 53.5 in Apr (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8a6a0f50febb4223a82a464ad147e9fd). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds that the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI index suggests GDP growth at around 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8a6a0f50febb4223a82a464ad147e9fd). The Markit Eurozone PMI^® Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing activity with close association with GDP decreased from 54.0 in Mar to 53.9 in Apr (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/2989b1ecd4074b158d4881cd5324729b). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds slowing growth of GDP at around 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/2989b1ecd4074b158d4881cd5324729b). The Markit Eurozone Services Business Activity Index decreased from 54.2 in Mar to 54.1 in Apr (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/2989b1ecd4074b158d4881cd5324729b). The Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI^® decreased from 52.2 in Mar to 52.0 in Apr (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/75c70e83d725473bb481371c2239970a). New export orders increased. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds improvement of industrial growth in the euro area (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/75c70e83d725473bb481371c2239970a). Table EUR provides the data table for the euro area.

Table EUR, Euro Area Economic Indicators

GDP	IVQ2014 ∆% 0.3; IVQ2014/IVQ2013 ∆% 0.9 Blog 3/15/15
Unemployment	Mar 2015: 11.3 % unemployment rate; Mar 2015: 18.105 million unemployed Blog 5/3/15
HICP	Mar month ∆%: 1.1 12 months Mar ∆%: -0.1 Blog 4/19/15
Producer Prices	Euro Zone industrial producer prices Feb ∆%: 0.5 Feb 12-month ∆%: -2.8 Blog 4/12/15
Industrial Production	Feb month ∆%: 1.1; Feb 12 months ∆%: 1.6 Blog 4/19/15
Retail Sales	Mar month ∆%: -0.8 Mar 12 months ∆%: 1.6 Earlier Data: Blog 3/15/15
Confidence and Economic Sentiment Indicator	Sentiment 103.9 Mar 2015 Consumer minus 3.7 Mar 2015 Blog 4/5/15
Trade	Jan-Feb 2015/Jan-Feb 2014 Exports ∆%: 1.8 Imports ∆%: -2.8 Feb 2015 12-month Exports ∆% 4.1 Imports ∆% 0.4 Blog 4/19/15

Links to blog comments in Table EUR:

5/3/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/dollar-devaluation-and-carry-trade.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

VE Germany. Table VE-DE provides yearly growth rates of the German economy from 1971 to 2014, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked. Germany’s GDP fell 5.6 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.1 percent in 2008. Recovery has been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.1 percent in 2010, 3.6 percent in 2011 and 0.4 percent in 2012. Growth decelerated to 0.1 percent in 2013, increasing to 1.6 percent in 2014.

The Federal Statistical Agency of Germany analyzes the fall and recovery of the German economy (http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Content/Statistics/VolkswirtschaftlicheGesamtrechnungen/Inlandsprodukt/Aktuell,templateId=renderPrint.psml):

“The German economy again grew strongly in 2011. The price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.0% compared with the previous year. Accordingly, the catching-up process of the German economy continued during the second year after the economic crisis. In the course of 2011, the price-adjusted GDP again exceeded its pre-crisis level. The economic recovery occurred mainly in the first half of 2011. In 2009, Germany experienced the most serious post-war recession, when GDP suffered a historic decline of 5.1%. The year 2010 was characterised by a rapid economic recovery (+3.7%).”

Table VE-DE, Germany, GDP ∆% on Prior Year

	Price Adjusted Chain-Linked	Price- and Calendar-Adjusted Chain Linked
Average ∆% 1991-2014	1.3
Average ∆% 1991-1999	1.5
Average ∆% 2000-2007	1.4
Average ∆% 2003-2007	2.2
Average ∆% 2007-2014	0.7
Average ∆% 2009-2014	1.9
2014	1.6	1.6
2013	0.1	0.2
2012	0.4	0.6
2011	3.6	3.7
2010	4.1	3.9
2009	-5.6	-5.6
2008	1.1	0.8
2007	3.3	3.4
2006	3.7	3.9
2005	0.7	0.9
2004	1.2	0.7
2003	-0.7	-0.7
2002	0.0	0.0
2001	1.7	1.8
2000	3.0	3.2
1999	2.0	1.9
1998	2.0	1.7
1997	1.8	1.9
1996	0.8	0.8
1995	1.7	1.8
1994	2.5	2.5
1993	-1.0	-1.0
1992	1.9	1.5
1991	5.1	5.2
1990	5.3	5.5
1989	3.9	4.0
1988	3.7	3.4
1987	1.4	1.3
1986	2.3	2.3
1985	2.3	2.3
1984	2.8	2.9
1983	1.6	1.5
1982	-0.4	-0.5
1981	0.5	0.6
1980	1.4	1.3
1979	4.2	4.3
1978	3.0	3.1
1977	3.3	3.5
1976	4.9	4.5
1975	-0.9	-0.9
1974	0.9	1.0
1973	4.8	5.0
1972	4.3	4.3
1971	3.1	3.0
1970	NA	NA

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/NationalAccounts.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/DomesticProduct/CurrentRevision.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Methods/NationalAccountRevision/Revision2014_BackgroundPaper.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/02/PE14_048_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/08/PE13_278_811.html https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/11/PE13_381_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/01/PE14_016_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/DE/PresseService/Presse/Pressekonferenzen/2014/BIP2013/Pressebroschuere_BIP2013.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/05/PE14_167_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/09/PE14_306_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/11/PE14_401_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_048_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_61_811.html

The Flash Germany Composite Output Index of the Markit Flash Germany PMI^®, combining manufacturing and services, decreased from 55.4 in Mar to 54.2 in Apr. The index of manufacturing output reached 53.9 in Apr, decreasing from 55.5 in Mar, while the index of services decreased to 54.4 in Apr from 55.4 in Mar. The overall Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI^® decreased from 52.8 in Mar to 51.9 in Apr (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/70eb1bd5cc374ea99998072b6f324c02). New orders in manufacturing expanded moderately. Oliver Kolodseike, Economist at Markit, finds continuing GDP growth (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/70eb1bd5cc374ea99998072b6f324c02). The Markit Germany Composite Output Index of the Markit Germany Services PMI^®, combining manufacturing and services with close association with Germany’s GDP, decreased from 55.4 in Mar to 54.1 in Apr (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/317d980899924deeada58333a5bdfd82). Oliver Kolodseike, Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds improvement in 2015 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/126dd4b9c0244796bf59910d40f88ef8). The Germany Services Business Activity Index decreased from 55.4 in Mar to 54.0 in Apr (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/317d980899924deeada58333a5bdfd82). The Markit/BME Germany Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®), showing close association with Germany’s manufacturing conditions, increased from 52.8 in Mar to 52.1 in

Apr (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/dcbfc9aea0e445b18f69927685fccb23). New export orders increased. Oliver Kolodseike, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds moderate growth of manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/dcbfc9aea0e445b18f69927685fccb23).Table DE provides the country data table for Germany.

Table DE, Germany, Economic Indicators

GDP	IVQ2014 0.7 ∆%; IV/Q2014/IVQ2013 ∆% 1.6 2014/2013: 1.6% GDP ∆% 1970-2014 Blog 8/26/12 5/27/12 11/25/12 2/24/13 5/19/13 5/26/13 8/18/13 8/25/13 11/17/13 11/24/13 1/26/14 2/16/14 3/2/14 5/18/14 5/25/14 8/17/14 9/7/14 11/16/14 11/30/14 2/15/15 3/1/15
Consumer Price Index	Mar month NSA ∆%: 0.5 Mar 12-month NSA ∆%: 0.3 Blog 4/19/15
Producer Price Index	Mar month ∆%: 0.1 NSA, 0.1 CSA 12-month NSA ∆%: -1.7 Blog 4/26/15
Industrial Production	MFG Mar month CSA ∆%: minus 0.8 12-month NSA: 4.3 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Machine Orders	MFG Mar month ∆%: 0.9 Mar 12-month ∆%: 6.2 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Retail Sales	Feb Month ∆% -0.5 12-Month ∆% 3.6 Blog 4/5/15
Employment Report	Unemployment Rate SA Mar 4.7% Blog 5/3/15
Trade Balance	Exports Mar 12-month NSA ∆%: 12.4 Imports Mar 12 months NSA ∆%: 7.1 Exports Mar month CSA ∆%: 1.2; Imports Mar month CSA 2.4 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15

Links to blog comments in Table DE:

5/3/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/dollar-devaluation-and-carry-trade.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

9/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/competitive-monetary-policy-and.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

1/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/01/capital-flows-exchange-rates-and.html

11/24/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html

8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

VF France. Table VF-FR provides growth rates of GDP of France with the estimates of Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE). The long-term rate of GDP growth of France from IVQ1949 to IVQ2014 is quite high at 3.2 percent. France’s growth rates were quite high in the four decades of the 1950s, 1960, 1970s and 1980s with an average growth rate of 4.0 percent compounding the average rates in the decades and discounting to one decade. The growth impulse diminished with 2.0 percent in the 1990s and 1.8 percent from 2000 to 2007. The average growth rate from 2000 to 2014, using fourth quarter data, is 1.0 percent because of the sharp impact of the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. Cobet and Wilson (2002) provide estimates of output per hour and unit labor costs in national currency and US dollars for the US, Japan and Germany from 1950 to 2000 (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 137-44). The average yearly rate of productivity change from 1950 to 2000 was 2.9 percent in the US, 6.3 percent for Japan and 4.7 percent for Germany while unit labor costs in USD increased at 2.6 percent in the US, 4.7 percent in Japan and 4.3 percent in Germany. From 1995 to 2000, output per hour increased at the average yearly rate of 4.6 percent in the US, 3.9 percent in Japan and 2.6 percent in Germany while unit labor costs in US fell at minus 0.7 percent in the US, 4.3 percent in Japan and 7.5 percent in Germany. There was increase in productivity growth in the G7 in Japan and France in the second half of the 1990s but significantly lower than the acceleration of 1.3 percentage points per year in the US. Lucas (2011May) compares growth of the G7 economies (US, UK, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Canada) and Spain, finding that catch-up growth with earlier rates for the US and UK stalled in the 1970s.

Table VF-FR, France, Average Growth Rates of GDP Fourth Quarter, 1949-2014

Period	Average ∆%
1949-2014	3.2
2007-2014	0.3
2000-2014	1.0
2000-2013	1.1
2000-2007	1.8
1990-1999	2.0
1980-1989	2.6
1970-1979	3.7
1960-1969	5.7
1950-1959	4.2

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=28&date=20150326

The Markit Flash France Composite Output Index decreased from 51.5 in Mar to 50.2 in Apr (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/56aafaccd22143ffbf3442285bf568f4). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds stalling growth (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/56aafaccd22143ffbf3442285bf568f4). The Markit France Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing with close association with French GDP, decreased from 51.5 in Mar to 50.6 in Apr, indicating expansion at slower pace (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b88d8461197d45bb8306f45e5759a377). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the France Services PMI^®, finds slowing business activity (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b88d8461197d45bb8306f45e5759a377). The Markit France Services Activity index decreased from 52.4 in Mar to 51.4 in Apr (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b88d8461197d45bb8306f45e5759a377). The Markit France Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^® decreased to 48.0 in Apr from 48.8 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/7f8cd6c38a0d4cf29619add036e91b5d). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the France Manufacturing PMI^®, finds deterioration in manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/7f8cd6c38a0d4cf29619add036e91b5d). Table FR provides the country data table for France.

Table FR, France, Economic Indicators

CPI	Mar month ∆% 0.7 12 months ∆%: -0.1 4/19/15
PPI	Mar month ∆%: 0.0 Mar 12 months ∆%: -2.1 Blog 5/3/15
GDP Growth	IVQ2014/IIIQ2014 ∆%: 0.1 IVQ2014/IVQ2013 ∆%: 0.2 Blog 3/31/13 5/19/12 6/30/13 9/29/13 11/17/13 12/29/13 2/16/14 4/6/14 5/18/14 6/29/14 8/17/14 9/28/14 11/16/14 12/28/14 2/15/15 3/29/15
Industrial Production	Mar ∆%: Manufacturing 0.0 12-Month ∆%: 0.0 Manufacturing 0.3 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Consumer Spending	Manufactured Goods Feb ∆%: -0.1 Feb 12-Month Manufactured Goods ∆%: 2.4 Blog 4/5/15
Employment	Unemployment Rate: IVQ2014 10.0% Blog 3/15/15
Trade Balance	Mar Exports ∆%: month 0.9, 12 months 3.8 Mar Imports ∆%: month 3.1, 12 months 3.1 Earlier Data: Blog 4/12/15
Confidence Indicators	Historical average 100 Apr Mfg Business Climate 101.0 Blog 3/29/15

Links to blog comments in Table FR:

5/3/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/dollar-devaluation-and-carry-trade.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/29/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

9/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

12/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/collapse-of-united-states-dynamism-of.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

6/30/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/tapering-quantitative-easing-policy-and.html

5/19/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/word-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

VG Italy. Table VG-IT provides percentage changes in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier of Italy’s expenditure components in chained volume measures. GDP has been declining at sharper rates from minus 1.0 percent in IVQ2011 to minus 2.7 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.6 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.0 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.4 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.8 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.1 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and decreased 0.3 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and fell 0.5 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. The aggregate demand components of consumption and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) have been declining at faster rates. The rates of decline of GDP, consumption and GFCF were somewhat milder in IIIQ2013 and IVQ2013 than in IQ2013 and the final three quarters of 2012. Consumption fell 0.4 percent in IQ2014 and GFCF fell 2.5 percent. In IIQ2014, consumption decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier and GFCF fell 3.3 percent. GDP fell 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier while consumption increased 0.2 percent and GFCF fell 4.2 percent. GDP fell 0.5 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier while consumption increased 0.3 percent and GFCF fell 3.0 percent.

Table VG-IT, Italy, GDP and Expenditure Components, Chained Volume Measures, Quarter ∆% on Same Quarter Year Earlier

	GDP	Imports	Consumption	GFCF	Exports
2014
IVQ	-0.5	2.0	0.3	-3.0	3.8
IIIQ	-0.5	1.3	0.2	-4.2	1.7
IIQ	-0.3	2.8	-0.1	-3.3	2.6
IQ	-0.1	0.4	-0.4	-2.5	3.8
2013
IVQ	-0.8	0.8	-1.2	-4.1	1.2
IIIQ	-1.4	-1.5	-2.1	-4.2	0.0
IIQ	-2.0	-3.7	-2.5	-6.4	0.2
IQ	-2.6	-4.3	-2.7	-8.4	1.5
2012
IVQ	-2.7	-7.5	-3.3	-9.6	1.7
IIIQ	-3.1	-8.2	-3.5	-10.2	3.0
IIQ	-3.1	-8.9	-3.5	-9.6	1.6
IQ	-2.3	-8.7	-3.1	-8.1	1.8
2011
IVQ	-1.0	-7.1	-2.0	-4.5	2.5
IIIQ	0.4	0.3	-0.8	-2.3	4.6
IIQ	1.4	3.8	0.3	-0.6	7.5
IQ	2.0	8.4	0.7	0.7	10.2
2010
IVQ	2.3	14.6	1.3	0.9	13.0
IIIQ	1.8	12.9	1.1	0.6	12.4
IIQ	1.9	14.2	1.0	-0.4	13.2
IQ	0.7	6.7	0.9	-3.3	6.8
2009
IVQ	-3.5	-6.3	0.2	-8.2	-9.3
IIIQ	-5.0	-12.2	-0.8	-12.6	-16.4
IIQ	-6.6	-17.9	-1.4	-13.6	-21.4
IQ	-6.9	-17.2	-1.8	-12.4	-22.8
2008
IVQ	-3.0	-8.2	-0.9	-8.3	-10.3
IIIQ	-1.9	-5.0	-0.8	-4.5	-3.9
IIQ	-0.2	-0.1	-0.3	-1.5	0.4
IQ	0.5	1.7	0.1	-1.0	2.9

GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/151830

The Markit/ADACI Business Activity Index increased from 51.6 in Mar to 53.1 in Apr (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/db90515993744bf4ac7cb4d61cdb450b). Phil Smith, Economist at Markit and author of the Italy Services PMI^®, finds signs of expansion of private sector activity (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/db90515993744bf4ac7cb4d61cdb450b). The Markit/ADACI Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®), increased from 53.3 in Mar to 53.8 in Apr (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/909dce57802c4892be56246ab96ed3f7). New export orders continued to increase. Phil Smith, Economist at Markit and author of the Italian Manufacturing PMI^®, finds strengthening conditions in manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/909dce57802c4892be56246ab96ed3f7). Table IT provides the country data table for Italy.

Table IT, Italy, Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index	Apr month ∆%: 0.3 Apr 12-month ∆%: 0.0 Blog 5/3/15
Producer Price Index	Mar month ∆%: -0.1 Mar 12-month ∆%: -3.1 Blog 5/3/15
GDP Growth	IVQ2014/IIIQ2014 SA ∆%: 0.0 IVQ2014/IVQ2013 NSA ∆%: minus 0.5 Blog 3/17/13 6/16/13 8/11/13 9/15/13 11/17/13 12/15/13 2/16/14 3/16/14 5/18/14 6/15/14 8/10/14 8/31/14 10/19/14 11/16/14 12/7/14 2/15/15 3/15/15
Labor Report	Mar 2015 Participation rate 64.0% Employment ratio 55.5% Unemployment rate 13.0% Youth Unemployment 43.1% Blog 5/3/15
Industrial Production	Mar month ∆%: 0.4 12 months CA ∆%: 1.5 Earlier Data: Blog 4/19/15
Retail Sales	Feb month ∆%: -0.2 Feb 12-month ∆%: 0.1 Blog 4/26/15
Business Confidence	Mfg Mar 103.7, Nov 99.5 Construction Mar 116.0, Nov 103.7 Blog 4/5/15
Trade Balance	Balance Feb SA €4576 million versus Jan €3914 Exports Feb month SA ∆%: 2.5; Imports month ∆%: 0.6 Exports 12 months Feb NSA ∆%: 3.7 Imports 12 months NSA ∆%: 1.0 Blog 4/19/15

Links to blog comments in Table IT:

5/3/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/dollar-devaluation-and-carry-trade.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

12/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/financial-risks-twenty-six-million.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

10/19/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/imf-view-squeeze-of-economic-activity.html

8/31/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitical-and-financial-risks.html

8/10/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/volatility-of-valuations-of-risk_10.html

6/15/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financialgeopolitical-risks-recovery.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

8/11/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/recovery-without-hiring-loss-of-full.html

6/16/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/recovery-without-hiring-seven-million.html

3/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

VH United Kingdom. Annual data in Table VH-UK show the strong impact of the global recession in the UK with decline of GDP of 4.3 percent in 2009 after dropping 0.3 percent in 2008. Recovery of 1.9 percent in 2010 is relatively low in comparison with annual growth rates in 2007 and earlier years. Growth was only 1.6 percent in 2011 and 0.7 percent in 2012. Growth increased to 1.7 percent in 2013 and 2.8 percent in 2014. The bottom part of Table VH-UK provides average growth rates of UK GDP since 1948. The UK economy grew at 2.6 percent per year on average between 1948 and 2014, which is relatively high for an advanced economy. The growth rate of GDP between 2000 and 2007 is higher at 2.9 percent. Growth in the current cyclical expansion from 2010 to 2014 has been only at 1.7 percent as advanced economies struggle with weak internal demand and world trade. GDP in 2014 higher by 4.0 percent relative to 2007 while it would have been 22.2 higher at trend of 2.9 percent as from 2000 to 2007.

Table VH-UK, UK, Gross Domestic Product, ∆%

	∆% on Prior Year
1998	3.5
1999	3.2
2000	3.8
2001	2.7
2002	2.5
2003	4.3
2004	2.5
2005	2.8
2006	3.0
2007	2.6
2008	-0.3
2009	-4.3
2010	1.9
2011	1.6
2012	0.7
2013	1.7
2014	2.8
Average Growth Rates ∆% per Year
1948-2014	2.6
1950-1959	3.1
1960-1969	3.1
1970-1979	2.6
1980-1989	3.1
1990-1999	2.2
2000-2007	2.9
2007-2013*	1.1
2007-2014*	4.0
2000-2014	1.7

*Absolute change from 2007 to 2013 and from 2007 to 2014

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/gva/gross-domestic-product--preliminary-estimate/q1-2015/index.html

The Business Activity Index of the Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI^® increased from 58.9 in Mar to 59.5 in Apr (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b0459b621dd9415a9305b0e48398326f). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds the combined indices consistent with the UK economy growing at around 0.8 percent in IIQ2015 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b0459b621dd9415a9305b0e48398326f). The Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®) decreased to 51.9 in Apr from 54.0 in Mar (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c50aafd1040e4bdc939cf991d1a696df). New export orders decreased. Rob Dobson, Senior Economist at Markit that compiles the Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI^®, finds weakening manufacturing conditions (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c50aafd1040e4bdc939cf991d1a696df). Table UK provides the economic indicators for the United Kingdom.

Table UK, UK Economic Indicators

CPI	Mar month ∆%: 0.2 Mar 12-month ∆%: 0.0 Blog 4/19/15
Output/Input Prices	Output Prices: Mar 12-month NSA ∆%: -1.7; excluding food, petroleum ∆%: 0.1 Input Prices: Mar 12-month NSA ∆%: -13.0 Excluding ∆%: -4.1 Blog 4/19/15
GDP Growth	IQ2015 prior quarter ∆% 0.3; year earlier same quarter ∆%: 2.4 Blog 3/31/13 4/28/13 5/26/13 7/28/13 8/25/13 9/29/13 10/27/13 12/1/13 12/22/13 2/2/14 3/2/14 4/6/14 5/4/14 5/25/14 6/29/14 7/27/14 8/17/14 10/5/14 10/26/14 11/30/14 12/28/14 2/1/15 3/1/15 4/5/15 5/3/15
Industrial Production	Feb 2015/Feb 2014 ∆%: Production Industries 0.1; Manufacturing 1.1 Blog 4/12/15
Retail Sales	Mar month ∆%: -0.5 Mar 12-month ∆%: 4.2 Blog 4/26/15
Labor Market	Dec-Feb Unemployment Rate: 5.6%; Claimant Count 2.3%; Earnings Growth 1.7% Blog 4/19/15 LMGDP 3/22/15
GDP and the Labor Market	IVQ2014 Employment 102.6 IQ2008 =100 GDP IIIQ14 103.4 IQ2008=100 Blog 3/22/14
Trade Balance	Balance SA Mar minus ₤2817 million Exports Mar%: 0.7; Jan-Mar ∆%: -1.1 Imports Mar ∆%: -0.4 Jan-Mar ∆%: -2.1 EARLIER DATA: Blog 4/12/15

Links to blog comments in Table UK:

5/3/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/dollar-devaluation-and-carry-trade.html

4/26/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html

4/19/2015 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/global-portfolio-reallocations-squeeze.html

4/12/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/dollar-revaluation-recovery-without.html

4/5/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/volatility-of-valuations-of-financial.html

3/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html

12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

10/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/financial-oscillations-world-inflation.html

10/5/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/world-financial-turbulence-twenty-seven.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

7/27/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

5/4/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html

4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html

3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html

2/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

12/22/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html

12/1/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/exit-risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html

10/27/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/twenty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html

9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html

7/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html

5/26/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

4/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_28.html

03/31/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015.