IMF View, Squeeze of Economic Activity by Carry Trades Induced by Zero Interest Rates, United States Industrial Production, United States Producer Prices, World Cyclical Slow Growth and Global Recession Risk: Part IV

 

IMF View, Squeeze of Economic Activity by Carry Trades Induced by Zero Interest Rates, United States Industrial Production, United States Producer Prices, World Cyclical Slow Growth and Global Recession Risk

Carlos M. Pelaez

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

I IMF View

IIA United States Industrial Production

IIB United States Producer Prices

III World Financial Turbulence

IIIA Financial Risks

IIIE Appendix Euro Zone Survival Risk

IIIF Appendix on Sovereign Bond Valuation

IV Global Inflation

V World Economic Slowdown

VA United States

VB Japan

VC China

VD Euro Area

VE Germany

VF France

VG Italy

VH United Kingdom

VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets

VII Economic Indicators

VIII Interest Rates

IX Conclusion

References

Appendixes

Appendix I The Great Inflation

IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies

IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact

IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort

IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis

IIIGA Monetary Policy with Deficit Financing of Economic Growth

IIIGB Adjustment during the Debt Crisis of the 1980s

V World Economic Slowdown. Table V-1 is constructed with the database of the IMF (http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28) to show GDP in dollars in 2012 and the growth rate of real GDP of the world and selected regional countries from 2013 to 2016. The data illustrate the concept often repeated of “two-speed recovery” of the world economy from the recession of 2007 to 2009. The IMF has changed its forecast of the world economy to 3.3 percent in 2013 but accelerating to 3.3 percent in 2014, 3.8 percent in 2015 and 4.0 percent in 2016. Slow-speed recovery occurs in the “major advanced economies” of the G7 that account for $34,523 billion of world output of $72,688 billion, or 47.5 percent, but are projected to grow at much lower rates than world output, 1.9 percent on average from 2013 to 2016 in contrast with 3.6 percent for the world as a whole. While the world would grow 15.2 percent in the four years from 2013 to 2016, the G7 as a whole would grow 8.5 percent. The difference in dollars of 2012 is rather high: growing by 15.2 percent would add around $11.0 trillion of output to the world economy, or roughly, two times the output of the economy of Japan of $5,938 billion but growing by 8.0 percent would add $5.8 trillion of output to the world, or about the output of Japan in 2012. The “two speed” concept is in reference to the growth of the 150 countries labeled as emerging and developing economies (EMDE) with joint output in 2012 of $27,512 billion, or 37.8 percent of world output. The EMDEs would grow cumulatively 20.7 percent or at the average yearly rate of 4.8 percent, contributing $5.7 trillion from 2013 to 2016 or the equivalent of somewhat less than the GDP of $8,387 billion of China in 2012. The final four countries in Table V-1 often referred as BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China), are large, rapidly growing emerging economies. Their combined output in 2012 adds to $14,511 billion, or 19.9 percent of world output, which is equivalent to 42.0 percent of the combined output of the major advanced economies of the G7.

Table V-1, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Real GDP Growth

	GDP USD 2012	Real GDP ∆% 2013	Real GDP ∆% 2014	Real GDP ∆% 2015	Real GDP ∆% 2016
World	72,688	3.3	3.3	3.8	4.0
G7	34,523	1.5	1.7	2.3	2.3
Canada	1,709	2.0	2.3	2.4	2.4
France	2,688	0.3	0.4	1.0	1.6
DE	3,428	0.5	1.4	1.5	1.8
Italy	2,014	-1.9	-0.2	0.9	1.3
Japan	5,938	1.5	0.9	0.8	0.8
UK	2,471	1.7	3.2	2.7	2.4
US	16,163	2.2	2.2	3.1	3.0
Euro Area	12,220	-0.4	0.8	1.3	1.7
DE	3,428	0.5	1.4	1.5	1.8
France	2,688	0.3	0.4	1.0	1.6
Italy	2,014	-1.9	-0.2	0.9	1.3
POT	212	-1.4	1.0	1.5	1.7
Ireland	211	-0.3	1.7	2.5	2.5
Greece	249	-3.9	0.6	2.9	3.7
Spain	1,323	-1.2	1.3	1.7	1.8
EMDE	27,512	4.7	4.4	5.0	5.2
Brazil	2,248	2.5	0.3	1.4	2.2
Russia	2,017	1.3	0.2	0.5	1.5
India	1,859	5.0	5.6	6.4	6.5
China	8,387	7.7	7.4	7.1	6.8

Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries); POT: Portugal

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook databank http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28

Continuing high rates of unemployment in advanced economies constitute another characteristic of the database of the WEO (http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28). Table V-2 is constructed with the WEO database to provide rates of unemployment from 2012 to 2016 for major countries and regions. In fact, unemployment rates for 2013 in Table I-2 are high for all countries: unusually high for countries with high rates most of the time and unusually high for countries with low rates most of the time. The rates of unemployment are particularly high in 2013 for the countries with sovereign debt difficulties in Europe: 16.2 percent for Portugal (POT), 13.0 percent for Ireland, 27.3 percent for Greece, 26.1 percent for Spain and 12.2 percent for Italy, which is lower but still high. The G7 rate of unemployment is 7.1 percent. Unemployment rates are not likely to decrease substantially if slow growth persists in advanced economies.

Table V-2, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Unemployment Rate as Percent of Labor Force

	% Labor Force 2012	% Labor Force 2013	% Labor Force 2014	% Labor Force 2015	% Labor Force 2016
World	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
G7	7.4	7.1	6.5	6.3	6.1
Canada	7.3	7.1	7.0	6.9	6.8
France	9.8	10.3	10.0	10.0	9.9
DE	5.5	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.3
Italy	10.7	12.2	12.6	12.0	11.3
Japan	4.3	4.0	3.7	3.8	3.8
UK	8.0	7.6	6.3	5.8	5.5
US	8.1	7.4	6.3	5.9	5.8
Euro Area	11.3	11.9	11.6	11.2	10.7
DE	5.5	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.3
France	9.8	10.3	10.0	10.0	9.9
Italy	10.7	12.2	12.6	12.0	11.3
POT	15.5	16.2	14.2	13.5	13.0
Ireland	14.7	13.0	11.2	10.5	10.1
Greece	24.2	27.3	25.8	23.8	20.9
Spain	24.8	26.1	24.6	23.5	22.4
EMDE	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
Brazil	5.5	5.4	5.5	6.1	5.9
Russia	5.5	5.5	5.6	6.5	6.0
India	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
China	4.1	4.1	4.1	4.1	4.1

Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries)

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook databank http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28

Table V-3 provides the latest available estimates of GDP for the regions and countries followed in this blog from IQ2012 to IVQ2013 available now for all countries. There are preliminary estimates for all countries for IIQ2014. Growth is weak throughout most of the world.

• Japan. The GDP of Japan increased 1.0 percent in IQ2012, 4.1 percent at SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) and 3.3 percent relative to a year earlier but part of the jump could be the low level a year earlier because of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan is experiencing difficulties with the overvalued yen because of worldwide capital flight originating in zero interest rates with risk aversion in an environment of softer growth of world trade. Japan’s GDP fell 0.5 percent in IIQ2012 at the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of minus 2.2 percent, which is much lower than 4.1 percent in IQ2012. Growth of 3.2 percent in IIQ2012 in Japan relative to IIQ2011 has effects of the low level of output because of Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.7 percent in IIIQ2012 at the SAAR of minus 2.7 percent and decreased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 at the SAAR of minus 0.5 percent and decreased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan grew 1.2 percent in IQ2013 at the SAAR of 5.1 percent and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2013 at the SAAR of 3.4 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP grew 0.4 percent in IIIQ2013 at the SAAR of 1.8 percent and increased 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Japan’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent at the SAAR of minus 0.5 percent, increasing 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 1.5 percent in IQ2014 at the SAAR of 6.0 percent and increased 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Japan’s GDP fell 1.8 percent at the SAAR of minus 7.1 percent and fell 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier.
• China. China’s GDP grew 1.4 percent in IQ2012, annualizing to 5.7 percent, and 8.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 2.1 percent in IIQ2012, which annualizes to 8.7 percent and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 2.0 percent in IIIQ2012, which annualizes at 8.2 percent and 7.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, China grew at 1.9 percent, which annualizes at 7.8 percent, and 7.9 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, China grew at 1.6 percent, which annualizes at 6.6 percent and 7.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, China grew at 1.8 percent, which annualizes at 7.4 percent and 7.5 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 2.3 percent in IIIQ2013, which annualizes at 9.5 percent and 7.8 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 1.7 percent in IVQ2013, which annualized to 7.0 percent and 7.7 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP grew 1.5 percent in IQ2014, which annualizes to 6.1 percent, and 7.4 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP grew 2.0 percent in IIQ2014, which annualizes at 8.2 percent, and 7.5 percent relative to a year earlier. There is decennial change in leadership in China (http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/special/18cpcnc/index.htm). Growth rates of GDP of China in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier have been declining from 2011 to 2014.
• Euro Area. GDP fell 0.1 percent in the euro area in IQ2012 and decreased 0.2 in IQ2012 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP contracted 0.3 percent IIQ2012 and fell 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.2 percent and declined 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.5 percent relative to the prior quarter and fell 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, the GDP of the euro area fell 0.2 percent and decreased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2013, euro area GDP increased 0.1 percent and fell 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2013 and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent and 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier.
• Germany. The GDP of Germany increased 0.3 percent in IQ2012 and 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier but 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier when adjusted for calendar (CA) effects. In IIIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IVQ2012 and decreased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, Germany’s GDP decreased 0.4 percent and fell 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 0.8 percent and 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2013 and 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent and 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.7 percent in IQ2014 and 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Germany’s GDP contracted 0.2 percent and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier.
• United States. Growth of US GDP in IQ2012 was 0.6 percent, at SAAR of 2.3 percent and higher by 2.6 percent relative to IQ2011. US GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2012, 1.6 percent at SAAR and 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, US GDP grew 0.6 percent, 2.5 percent at SAAR and 2.7 percent relative to IIIQ2011. In IVQ2012, US GDP grew 0.0 percent, 0.1 percent at SAAR and 1.6 percent relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, US GDP grew at 2.7 percent SAAR, 0.7 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.7 percent relative to the same quarter in 2013. In IIQ2013, US GDP grew at 1.8 percent in SAAR, 0.4 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.8 percent relative to IIQ2012. US GDP grew at 4.5 percent in SAAR in IIIQ2013, 1.1 percent relative to the prior quarter and 2.3 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitical-and-financial-risks.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/fluctuating-financial-valuations.html) with weak hiring (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitics-monetary-policy-and.html). In IVQ2013, US GDP grew 0.9 percent at 3.5 percent SAAR and 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, US GDP decreased 0.5 percent, increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier and fell 2.1 percent at SAAR. In IIQ2014, US GDP increased 1.1 percent at 4.6 percent SAAR and increased 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier.
• United Kingdom. In IQ2012, UK GDP increased 0.1 percent, increasing 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP fell 0.2 percent in IIQ2012 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIIQ2012 and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP fell 0.3 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IIIQ2012 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2013 and 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2013 and 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2013, UK GDP increased 0.9 percent and 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.6 percent in IVQ2013 and 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, UK GDP increased 0.7 percent and 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.9 percent in IIQ2014 and 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier.
• Italy. Italy has experienced decline of GDP in nine consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IIIQ2013 and in IIQ2014. Italy’s GDP fell 0.9 percent in IQ2012 and declined 1.9 percent relative to IQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell 0.4 percent in IIQ2012 and declined 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, Italy’s GDP fell 0.4 percent and declined 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy contracted 0.8 percent in IVQ2012 and fell 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, Italy’s GDP contracted 0.8 percent and fell 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.2 percent in IIQ2013 and 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2013 and declined 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2013 and decreased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and fell 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy fell 0.2 percent in IIQ2014 and declined 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier.
• France. France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2012 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IIQ2012 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, France’s GDP increased 0.3 percent and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP fell 0.3 percent in IVQ2012 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, France GDP changed 0.0 percent and declined 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2013 and 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2013 and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2013 and 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier.

Table V-3, Percentage Changes of GDP Quarter on Prior Quarter and on Same Quarter Year Earlier, ∆%

	IQ2012/IVQ2011	IQ2012/IQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.6        SAAR: 2.3	2.6
Japan	QOQ: 1.0 SAAR: 4.1	3.3
China	1.4	8.1
Euro Area	-0.1	-0.2
Germany	0.3	1.5
France	0.2	0.6
Italy	-0.9	-1.9
United Kingdom	0.1	1.0
	IIQ2012/IQ2012	IIQ2012/IIQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.4         SAAR: 1.6	2.3
Japan	QOQ: -0.5 SAAR: -2.2	3.2
China	2.1	7.6
Euro Area	-0.3	-0.5
Germany	0.1	0.3 0.8 CA
France	-0.2	0.4
Italy	-0.4	-2.4
United Kingdom	-0.2	0.6
	IIIQ2012/ IIQ2012	IIIQ2012/ IIIQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.6  SAAR: 2.5	2.7
Japan	QOQ: –0.7 SAAR: –2.7	-0.2
China	2.0	7.4
Euro Area	-0.2	-0.7
Germany	0.1	0.1
France	0.3	0.5
Italy	-0.4	-2.5
United Kingdom	0.8	0.7
	IVQ2012/IIIQ2012	IVQ2012/IVQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.0 SAAR: 0.1	1.6
Japan	QOQ: -0.1 SAAR: -0.5	-0.3
China	1.9	7.9
Euro Area	-0.5	-1.0
Germany	-0.4	-0.3
France	-0.3	0.0
Italy	-0.8	-2.5
United Kingdom	-0.3	0.4
	IQ2013/IVQ2012	IQ2013/IQ2012
United States	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.7	1.7
Japan	QOQ: 1.2 SAAR: 5.1	0.1
China	1.6	7.7
Euro Area	-0.2	-1.1
Germany	-0.4	-1.8
France	0.0	-0.2
Italy	-0.8	-2.4
UK	0.5	0.8
	IIQ2013/IQ2013	IIQ2013/IIQ2012
United States	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.8	1.8
Japan	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.4	1.2
China	1.8	7.5
Euro Area	0.3	-0.6
Germany	0.8	0.5
France	0.7	0.7
Italy	-0.2	-2.2
UK	0.7	1.7
	IIIQ2013/IIQ2013	III/Q2013/  IIIQ2012
USA	QOQ: 1.1 SAAR: 4.5	2.3
Japan	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.8	2.3
China	2.3	7.8
Euro Area	0.1	-0.3
Germany	0.3	0.8
France	-0.1	0.3
Italy	0.0	-1.9
UK	0.9	1.7
	IVQ2013/IIIQ2013	IVQ2013/IVQ2012
USA	QOQ: 0.9 SAAR: 3.5	3.1
Japan	QOQ: -0.1 SAAR: -0.5	2.5
China	1.7	7.7
Euro Area	0.3	0.5
Germany	0.4	1.0
France	0.2	0.8
Italy	-0.1	-1.1
UK	0.6	2.7
	IQ2014/IVQ2013	IQ2014/IQ2013
USA	QOQ -0.5 SAAR -2.1	1.9
Japan	QOQ: 1.5 SAAR: 6.0	3.0
China	1.5	7.4
Euro Area	0.2	1.0
Germany	0.7	2.5
France	0.0	0.8
Italy	0.0	-0.3
UK	0.7	2.9
	IIQ2014/IQ2014	IIQ2014/IIQ2013
USA	QOQ 1.1 SAAR 4.6	2.6
Japan	QOQ: -1.8 SAAR: -7.1	-0.1
China	2.0	7.5
Euro Area	0.0	0.7
Germany	-0.2	0.8
France	0.0	0.1
Italy	-0.2	-0.3
UK	0.9	3.2

QOQ: Quarter relative to prior quarter; SAAR: seasonally adjusted annual rate

Source: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.census.gov/aboutus/stat_int.html

Table V-4 provides two types of data: growth of exports and imports in the latest available months and in the past 12 months; and contributions of net trade (exports less imports) to growth of real GDP.

• Japan. Japan provides the most worrisome data (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/monetary-policy-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/valuation-risks-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/interest-rate-risks-world-inflation.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/global-financial-risk-world-inflation.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations_8763.html http://cmpass ocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/paring-quantitative-easing-policy-and_4699.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/thirty-one-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/12/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_24.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/11/contraction-of-united-states-real_25.html and for GDP http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html and earlier http://cmpassocreulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/recovery-without-hiring-united-states.html). In Aug 2014, Japan’s exports decreased 1.3 percent in 12 months while imports decreased 1.5 percent. The second part of Table V-4 shows that net trade deducted 1.4 percentage points from Japan’s growth of GDP in IIQ2012, deducted 1.9 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2012 and deducted 0.5 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2012. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2012, 1.7 percentage points in IQ2013 and 0.2 percentage points in IIQ2013. In IIIQ2013, net trade deducted 1.6 percentage points from GDP growth in Japan. Net trade ducted 2.4 percentage points from GDP growth in Japan in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 0.8 percentage point from GDP growth of Japan in IQ2014. Net trade added 4.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2014.

• China. In Sep 2014, China exports increased 15.3 percent relative to a year earlier and imports increased 7.0 percent.
• Germany. Germany’s exports decreased 5.8 percent in the month of Aug 2014 and decreased 1.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014. Germany’s imports decreased 1.3 percent in the month of Aug and decreased 2.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to growth of GDP in IQ2012, contributed 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2012, contributed 0.3 percentage points in IIIQ2012, deducted 0.5 percentage points in IVQ2012, deducted 0.3 percentage points in IQ2013 and added 0.1 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded deducted 0.5 percentage points from Germany’s GDP growth in IIIQ2013 and added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2014.
• United Kingdom. Net trade contributed 0.7 percentage points in IIQ2013. In IIIQ2013, net trade deducted 2.0 percentage points from UK growth. Net trade contributed 0.5 percentage points to UK value added in IVQ2013. Net trade contributed 0.6 percentage points to UK value added in IQ2014 and 0.0 percentage points in IIQ2014.
• France. France’s exports decreased 1.3 percent in Aug 2014 while imports decreased 0.6 percent. France’s imports decreased 1.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014 and imports increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Net traded added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IIIQ2012 and 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IQ2013 and added 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2013, deducting 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 0.3 percentage points to France’s GDP in IVQ2013 and deducted 0.0 percentage points in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IIQ2014.
• United States. US exports increased 0.2 percent in Aug 2014 and goods exports increased 3.3 percent in Jan-Aug 2014 relative to a year earlier. Imports decreased 0.1 percent in Aug 2014 and goods imports increased 3.1 percent in Jan-Aug 2014 relative to a year earlier. Net trade deducted 0.04 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2012 and added 0.39 percentage points in IIIQ2012 and 0.79 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade deducted 0.08 percentage points from US GDP growth in IQ2013 and deducted 0.54 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded added 0.59 percentage points to US GDP growth in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 1.08 percentage points to US GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 1.66 percentage points from US GDP growth in IQ2014 and deduced 0.34 percentage points in IIQ2014. Industrial production increased 1.0 percent in Sep 2014 and decreased 0.2 percent in Aug 2014 after increasing 0.2 percent in Jul 2014, as shown in Table I-1, with all data seasonally adjusted. The Federal Reserve completed its annual revision of industrial production and capacity utilization on Mar 28, 2014 (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/revisions/Current/DefaultRev.htm). The report of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System states (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm):

“Industrial production increased 1.0 percent in September and advanced at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the third quarter of 2014, roughly its average quarterly increase since the end of 2010. In September, manufacturing output moved up 0.5 percent, while the indexes for mining and for utilities climbed 1.8 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively. For the third quarter as a whole, manufacturing production rose at an annual rate of 3.5 percent and mining output increased at an annual rate of 8.7 percent. The output of utilities fell at an annual rate of 8.5 percent for a second consecutive quarterly decline. At 105.1 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in September was 4.3 percent above its level of a year earlier. The capacity utilization rate for total industry moved up 0.6 percentage point in September to 79.3 percent, a rate that is 1.0 percentage point above its level of 12 months earlier but 0.8 percentage point below its long-run (1972–2013) average.”

In the six months ending in Sep 2014, United States national industrial production accumulated increase of 1.9 percent at the annual equivalent rate of 3.9 percent, which is lower than growth of 4.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2014. Excluding growth of 1.0 percent in Sep 2014, growth in the remaining five months from Apr to Aug 2014 accumulated to 0.9 percent or 2.2 percent annual equivalent. Industrial production declined in one of the past six months. Industrial production expanded at annual equivalent 4.1 percent in the most recent quarter from Jul to Sep 2014 and at 3.7 percent in the prior quarter Apr-Jun 2014. Business equipment accumulated growth of 2.2 percent in the six months from Apr to Sep 2014 at the annual equivalent rate of 4.5 percent, which is close growth of 4.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2014. The Fed analyzes capacity utilization of total industry in its report (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm): “The capacity utilization rate for total industry moved up 0.6 percentage point in September to 79.3 percent, a rate that is 1.0 percentage point above its level of 12 months earlier but 0.8 percentage point below its long-run (1972–2013) average.” United States industry apparently decelerated to a lower growth rate with possible acceleration in past months.

Manufacturing by 21.9 from the peak in Jun 2007 to the trough in Apr 2009 and increased by 19.9 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Dec 2013. Manufacturing grew 26.8 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Sep 2014. Manufacturing output in Sep 2014 is 1.0 percent below the peak in Jun 2007. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IIQ2014 would have accumulated to 22.1 percent. GDP in IIQ2014 would be $18,305.0 billion (in constant dollars of 2009) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $2,294.6 billion than actual $16,010.4 billion. There are about two trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 26.5 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment of 16.1 percent of the effective labor force (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/world-financial-turbulence-twenty-seven.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/competitive-monetary-policy-and.html). US GDP in IIQ2014 is 12.5 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $14,991.8 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $16,010.4 billion in IIQ2014 or 6.8 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.0 percent. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. The long-term trend is growth at average 3.3 percent per year from Jan 1919 to Sep 2014. Growth at 3.3 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output from 99.2392 in Dec 2007 to 123.5550 in Sep 2014. The actual index NSA in Sep 2014 is 102.0228, which is 17.4 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 2.3 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2013, raising the index at trend to 115.7028 in Sep 2014. The output of manufacturing at 102.0228 in Sep 2014 is 11.8 percent below trend under this alternative calculation.

Table V-4, Growth of Trade and Contributions of Net Trade to GDP Growth, ∆% and % Points

	Exports M ∆%	Exports 12 M ∆%	Imports M ∆%	Imports 12 M ∆%
USA	0.2 Aug	3.3 Jan-Aug	-0.1 Aug	3.1 Jan-Aug
Japan		Aug -1.3 Jul 3.9 Jun -2.0 May 2014 -2.7 Apr 2014 5.1 Mar 2014 1.8 Feb 2014 9.5 Jan 2014 9.5 Dec 2013 15.3 Nov 2013 18.4 Oct 2013 18.6 Sep 2013 11.5 Aug 2013 14.7 Jul 2013 12.2 Jun 2013 7.4 May 2013 10.1 Apr 2013 3.8 Mar 2013 1.1 Feb 2013 -2.9 Jan 2013 6.4 Dec -5.8 Nov -4.1 Oct -6.5 Sep -10.3 Aug -5.8 Jul -8.1		Aug -1.5 Jul 2.3 Jun 8.4 May 2014 -3.6 Apr 2013 3.4 Mar 2014 18.1 Feb 2014 9.0 Jan 2014 25.0 Dec 2013 24.7 Nov 2013 21.1 Oct 2013 26.1 Sep 2013 16.5 Aug 2013 16.0 Jul 2013 19.6 Jun 2013 11.8 May 2013 10.0 Apr 2013 9.4 Mar 2013 5.5 Feb 2013 7.3 Jan 2013 7.3 Dec 1.9 Nov 0.8 Oct -1.6 Sep 4.1 Aug -5.4 Jul 2.1
China		2014 15.3 Sep 9.4 Aug 14.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 7.0 May 0.9 Apr -6.6 Mar -18.1 Feb 10.6 Jan 2013 4.3 Dec 12.7 Nov 5.6 Oct -0.3 Sep 7.2 Aug 5.1 Jul -3.1 Jun 1.0 May 14.7 Apr 10.0 Mar 21.8 Feb 25.0 Jan		2014 7.0 Aug -2.4 Aug -1.6 Jul 5.5 Jun -1.6 May -0.8 Apr -11.3 Mar 10.1 Feb 10.0 Jan 2013 8.3 Dec 5.3 Nov 7.6 Oct 7.4 Sep 7.0 Aug 10.9 Jul -0.7 Jun -0.3 May 16.8 Apr 14.1 Mar -15.2 Feb 28.8 Jan
Euro Area	-2.8 12-M Aug	0.8 Jan-Aug	-4.4 12-M Aug	-0.2 Jan-Aug
Germany	-5.8 Aug CSA	-1.0 Aug	-1.3 Aug CSA	-2.4 Aug
France Aug	-1.3	-1.2	-0.6	0.1
Italy Aug	1.1	-2.7	-0.4	-7.0
UK	-1.7 Aug	-7.4 Jun-Aug 14 /Jun-Aug 13	-4.2 Aug	-6.9 Jun-Aug 14 /Jun-Aug 13
Net Trade % Points GDP Growth	% Points
USA	IIQ2014 -0.34 IQ2014 -1.66 IVQ2013 1.08 IIIQ2013 0.59 IIQ2013 -0.54 IQ2013 -0.08 IVQ2012 +0.79 IIIQ2012 0.39 IIQ2012 -0.04 IQ2012 -0.11
Japan	0.4 IQ2012 -1.4 IIQ2012 -1.9 IIIQ2012 -0.5 IVQ2012 1.7 IQ2013 0.2 IIQ2013 -1.6 IIIQ2013 -2.4 IVQ2013 -0.8 IQ2014 4.3 IIQ2014
Germany	IQ2012 0.8 IIQ2012 0.4 IIIQ2012 0.3 IVQ2012 -0.5 IQ2013 -0.3 IIQ2013 0.1 IIIQ2013 -0.5 IVQ2013 0.4 IQ2014 -0.2 IIQ2014 -0.2
France	0.1 IIIQ2012 0.1 IVQ2012 -0.1 IQ2013 0.3 IIQ2013 -0.4 IIIQ2013 0.3 IVQ2013 0.0 IQ2014 -0.1 IIQ2014
UK	0.7 IIQ2013 -2.0 IIIQ2013 0.5 IVQ2013 0.6 IQ2014 0.0 IIQ2014

Sources: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/ http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm

The geographical breakdown of exports and imports of Japan with selected regions and countries is provided in Table V-4 for Aug 2014. The share of Asia in Japan’s trade is close to one-half for 56.1 percent of exports and 42.6 percent of imports. Within Asia, exports to China are 19.6 percent of total exports and imports from China 20.3 percent of total imports. While exports to China decreased 0.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014, imports from China decreased 5.3 percent. The second largest export market for Japan in Aug 2014 is the US with share of 17.9 percent of total exports, which is close to that of China, and share of imports from the US of 9.6 percent in total imports. Japan’s exports to the US decreased 4.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014 and imports from the US increased 10.7 percent. Western Europe has share of 10.6 percent in Japan’s exports and of 10.1 percent in imports. Rates of growth of exports of Japan in Aug 2014 are 2.5 percent for exports to the US, minus 23.8 percent for exports to Brazil and 6.5 percent for exports to Germany. Comparisons relative to 2011 may have some bias because of the effects of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Deceleration of growth in China and the US and threat of recession in Europe can reduce world trade and economic activity. Growth rates of imports in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014 are mixed. Imports from Asia decreased 3.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014 while imports from China decreased 5.3 percent. Data are in millions of yen, which may have effects of recent depreciation of the yen relative to the United States dollar (USD).

Table V-4, Japan, Value and 12-Month Percentage Changes of Exports and Imports by Regions and Countries, ∆% and Millions of Yen

Aug 2014	Exports Millions Yen	12 months ∆%	Imports Millions Yen	12 months ∆%
Total	5,705,991	-1.3	6,654,458	-1.5
Asia	3,199,633 % Total 56.1	-0.6	2,833,455 % Total 42.6	-3.1
China	1,116,035 % Total 19.6	-0.2	1,349,909 % Total 20.3	-5.3
USA	1,022,583 % Total 17.9	-4.4	637,130 % Total 9.6	10.7
Canada	60,633	-15.4	98,471	5.2
Brazil	40,471	-23.8	83,507	3.9
Mexico	88,939	27.8	38,311	15.8
Western Europe	602,889 % Total 10.6	2.5	674,439 % Total 10.1	-2.0
Germany	160,640	6.5	198,022	-5.6
France	44,220	-9.2	79,459	-3.1
UK	95,219	5.4	55,689	6.8
Middle East	199,347	8.1	1,341,799	2.1
Australia	113,671	-18.5	417,196	-4.6

Source: Japan, Ministry of Finance http://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/info/index_e.htm

World trade projections of the IMF are in Table V-5. There is increasing growth of the volume of world trade of goods and services from 3.0 percent in 2013 to 5.0 percent in 2015 and 5.6 percent on average from 2016 to 2019. World trade would be slower for advanced economies while emerging and developing economies (EMDE) experience faster growth. World economic slowdown would be more challenging with lower growth of world trade.

Table V-5, IMF, Projections of World Trade, USD Billions, USD/Barrel and Annual ∆%

	2013	2014	2015	Average ∆% 2016-2019
World Trade Volume (Goods and Services)	3.0	3.8	5.0	5.6
Exports Goods & Services	3.2	3.7	5.0	5.5
Imports Goods & Services	2.8	3.9	5.0	5.6
World Trade Value of Exports Goods & Services USD Billion	23,114	23,928	24,948	Average ∆% 2006-2015 20,259
Value of Exports of Goods USD Billion	18,671	19,299	20,107	Average ∆% 2006-2015 16,312
Average Oil Price USD/Barrel	104.07	102.76	99.36	Average ∆% 2006-2015 88.85
Average Annual ∆% Export Unit Value of Manufactures	-1.1	-0.2	-0.5	Average ∆% 2006-2015 -0.6
Exports of Goods & Services	2013	2014	2015	Average ∆% 2016-2019
Euro Area	1.8	3.5	4.3	4.7
EMDE	4.4	3.9	5.8	6.1
G7	1.8	2.9	4.2	4.9
Imports Goods & Services
Euro Area	0.5	3.4	3.9	4.7
EMDE	5.3	4.4	6.1	6.3
G7	1.2	3.6	4.1	4.9
Terms of Trade of Goods & Services
Euro Area	0.8	-0.4	-0.3	-0.1
EMDE	-0.2	-0.02	-0.6	-0.4
G7	0.8	0.7	-0.2	0.0
Terms of Trade of Goods
Euro Area	1.2	0.03	-0.02	-0.2
EMDE	-0.2	0.2	-0.4	-0.3
G7	0.9	0.3	-0.1	-0.1

Notes: Commodity Price Index includes Fuel and Non-fuel Prices; Commodity Industrial Inputs Price includes agricultural raw materials and metal prices; Oil price is average of WTI, Brent and Dubai

Source: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook databank

http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28

The JP Morgan Global All-Industry Output Index of the JP Morgan Manufacturing and Services PMI^™, produced by JP Morgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM, with high association with world GDP, decreased to 54.9 in Sep from 55.1 in Aug, indicating expansion at slightly slower rate (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f9fa304d4f7948649dec41faf0ffe0e5). This index has remained above the contraction territory of 50.0 during 62 consecutive months. The employment index increased from 51.4 in Aug to 51.8 in Sep with input prices rising at slower rate, new orders increasing at faster rate and output increasing at slower rate (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f9fa304d4f7948649dec41faf0ffe0e5). David Hensley, Director of Global Economic Coordination at JP Morgan, finds moderately slower growth of world economic output at the highest pace since IIQ2010 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f9fa304d4f7948649dec41faf0ffe0e5). The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI^™, produced by JP Morgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM, decreased to 52.2 in Sep from 52.5 in Aug (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/fd40c528859a43fb9da53bfb0a8df860). New export orders expanded for the fifteenth consecutive month (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/fd40c528859a43fb9da53bfb0a8df860). David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JP Morgan Chase, finds continuing impulse in global manufacturing. The HSBC Brazil Composite Output Index, compiled by Markit, increased from 49.6 in Aug to 50.6 in Sep, indicating moderate expansion in activity of Brazil’s private sector (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/1a09dff57d044bb0b23abb59d47ab45a). The HSBC Brazil Services Business Activity index, compiled by Markit, increased from 49.2 in Aug to 50.6 in Sep, indicating marginally expanding services activity (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/1a09dff57d044bb0b23abb59d47ab45a). André Loes, Chief Economist, Brazil, at HSBC, finds continuing modest growth (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/1a09dff57d044bb0b23abb59d47ab45a). The HSBC Brazil Purchasing Managers’ Index^TM (PMI^™) decreased marginally from 50.2 in Aug to 49.3 in Sep, indicating moderate deterioration in manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/846d98ec34dc4ea3b1745ea5717b3226). André Loes, Chief Economist, Brazil at HSBC, finds deteriorating industrial activity in Brazil (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/846d98ec34dc4ea3b1745ea5717b3226).

VA United States. The Markit Flash US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) seasonally adjusted stabilized at 57.9 in Sep unchanged from 58.0 in Aug (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/39f308fe4b504921bd7a6f8e8b0762ca). New export orders increased at a slower rate of expansion. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds that manufacturing activity is expanding at the highest rate in more than four years (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/39f308fe4b504921bd7a6f8e8b0762ca). The Markit Flash US Services PMI™ Business Activity Index decreased from 59.5 in Aug to 58.5 in Sep (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/a9f73e6ab8304506b6d2bd8efc9bd462). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds that the surveys are consistent with sustained strong growth of GDP in IIIQ2014 at an annual rate around 3.5 percent (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/a9f73e6ab8304506b6d2bd8efc9bd462). The Markit US Composite PMI™ Output Index of Manufacturing and Services decreased to 59.0 in Sep from 59.7 in Aug (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e1666adac16845408a507a50ff53ea4b). The Markit US Services PMI™ Business Activity Index decreased from 59.5 in Aug to 58.9 in Sep (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e1666adac16845408a507a50ff53ea4b). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds the indexes consistent with US growth at around 3 percent in IIIQ2014 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e1666adac16845408a507a50ff53ea4b). The Markit US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) decreased to 57.5 in Sep from 57.9 in Aug, which indicates expansion at marginally slower rate (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8f8d0489d39e4d60a8409cabd0e030d4). Growth of export orders continued. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds that the index suggests output growth of GDP at around 3 percent in IIIQ2014 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8f8d0489d39e4d60a8409cabd0e030d4). The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Report on Business^® decreased 2.4 percentage points from 59.0 in Aug to 56.6 in Sep, which indicates growth at slower rate (http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm?navItemNumber=12942). The index of new orders decreased 6.6 percentage points from 66.7 in Aug to 60.0 in Sep. The index of new export orders decreased 1.5 percentage point from 55.0 in Aug to 53.5 in Sep, growing at a slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report on Business^® PMI increased 0.9 percentage points from 58.7 in Jul to 59.6 in Aug, indicating growth of business activity/production during 61 consecutive months, while the index of new orders decreased 1.1 percentage points from 64.9 in Jul to 63.8 in Aug (http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm?navItemNumber=12943). Table USA provides the country economic indicators for the US.

Table USA, US Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index	Aug 12 months NSA ∆%: 1.7; ex food and energy ∆%: 1.7 Aug month SA ∆%: -0.2; ex food and energy ∆%: 0.0 Blog 9/21/14
Producer Price Index	Finished Goods Aug 12-month NSA ∆%: 2.2; ex food and energy ∆% 1.9 Aug month SA ∆% = -0.4; ex food and energy ∆%: 0.1 Final Demand Aug 12-month NSA ∆%: 1.8; ex food and energy ∆% 1.8 Aug month SA ∆% = 0.0; ex food and energy ∆%: 0.1 Blog 9/21/14
PCE Inflation	Aug 12-month NSA ∆%: headline 1.5; ex food and energy ∆% 1.5 Blog 10/5/14
Employment Situation	Household Survey: Sep Unemployment Rate SA 5.9% Blog calculation People in Job Stress Sep: 26.5 million NSA, 16.1% of Labor Force Establishment Survey: Sep Nonfarm Jobs +248,000; Private +236,000 jobs created  Aug 12-month Average Hourly Earnings Inflation Adjusted ∆%: 0.5 Blog 10/5/14
Nonfarm Hiring	Nonfarm Hiring fell from 63.3 million in 2006 to 54.2 million in 2013 or by 9.1 million Private-Sector Hiring Aug 2014 4.592 million lower by 0.783 million than 5.375 million in Aug 2006 Blog 10/12/14
GDP Growth	BEA Revised National Income Accounts IQ2012/IQ2011 ∆%: 2.6 IIQ2012/IIQ2011 2.3 IIIQ2012/IIIQ2011 2.7 IVQ2012/IVQ2011 1.6 IQ2013/IQ2012 1.7 IIQ2013/IIQ2012 1.8 IIIQ2013/IIIQ2012 2.3 IVQ2013/IVQ2012 3.1 IQ2014/IQ2013 1.9 IIQ2014/IIQ2013 2.6 IQ2012 SAAR 2.3 IIQ2012 SAAR 1.6 IIIQ2012 SAAR 2.5 IVQ2012 SAAR 0.1 IQ2013 SAAR 2.7 IIQ2013 SAAR 1.8 IIIQ2013 SAAR 4.5 IVQ2013 SAAR 3.5 IQ2014 SAAR -2.1 IIQ2014 SAAR 4.6 Blog 9/28/14
Real Private Fixed Investment	SAAR IIQ2014 9.5 ∆% IVQ2007 to IIQ2014: 0.0% Blog 9/28/14
Corporate Profits	IIQ2014 SAAR: Corporate Profits 8.4; Undistributed Profits 24.9 Blog 9/28/14
Personal Income and Consumption	Aug month ∆% SA Real Disposable Personal Income (RDPI) SA ∆% 0.3 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (RPCE): 0.5 12-month Aug NSA ∆%: RDPI: 2.7; RPCE ∆%: 2.6 Blog 10/5/14
Quarterly Services Report	IIQ14/IIQ13 NSA ∆%: Information 5.6 Financial & Insurance 4.8 Blog 9/14/14
Employment Cost Index	Compensation Private IIQ2014 SA ∆%: 0.7 Jun 12 months ∆%: 2.0 Blog 8/3/14
Industrial Production	Sep month SA ∆%: 1.0 Sep 12 months SA ∆%: 4.3 Manufacturing Sep SA 0.5 ∆% Sep 12 months SA ∆% 3.7, NSA 3.6 Capacity Utilization: 79.3 Blog 10/19/14
Productivity and Costs	Nonfarm Business Productivity IIQ2014∆% SAAE 2.3; IIQ2014/IIQ2013 ∆% 1.1; Unit Labor Costs SAAE IIQ2014 ∆% -0.1; IIQ2014/IIQ2013 ∆%: 1.7 Blog 9/7/14
New York Fed Manufacturing Index	General Business Conditions From Sep 27.54 to Oct 6.17 New Orders: From Sep 16.86 to Oct -1.73 Blog 10/19/14
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index	General Index from Sep 22.5 to Oct 20.7 New Orders from Sep 15.5 to Oct 17.3 Blog 10/19/14
Manufacturing Shipments and Orders	New Orders SA Jul ∆% 10.5 Ex Transport -0.8 Jan-Jul NSA New Orders ∆% 4.5 Ex transport 2.5 Blog 9/7/14
Durable Goods	Sep New Orders SA ∆%: -10.1; ex transport ∆%: -0.1 Jan-Sep 14/Jan-Aug 13 New Orders NSA ∆%: 4.3; ex transport ∆% 2.5 Blog 10/5/14
Sales of New Motor Vehicles	Jan-Sep 2014 12,431,305; Jan-Sep 2013 11,786,536. Sep 14 SAAR 16.43 million, Aug 14 SAAR 17.53 million, Sep 2013 SAAR 15.42 million Blog 10/5/14
Sales of Merchant Wholesalers	Jan-Aug 2014/Jan-Aug 2013 NSA ∆%: Total 5.6; Durable Goods: 5.1; Nondurable Goods: 5.9 Blog 10/12/14
Sales and Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers	Aug 14 12-M NSA ∆%: Sales Total Business 2.5; Manufacturers 1.9 Retailers 2.9; Merchant Wholesalers 2.9 Blog 10/19/14
Sales for Retail and Food Services	Jan-Sep 2014/Jan-Sep 2013 ∆%: Retail and Food Services 3.9; Retail ∆% 3.8 Blog 10/19/14
Value of Construction Put in Place	Aug SAAR month SA ∆%: -0.8 Aug 12-month NSA: 2.7 Blog 10/5/14
Case-Shiller Home Prices	Jul 2014/Jul 2013 ∆% NSA: 10 Cities 6.7; 20 Cities: 6.7 ∆% Jul SA: 10 Cities -0.5 ; 20 Cities: -0.5 Blog 10/5/14
FHFA House Price Index Purchases Only	Jul SA ∆% 0.1; 12 month NSA ∆%: 4.5 Blog 9/28/14
New House Sales	Aug 2014 month SAAR ∆%: 18.0 Jan-Aug 2014/Jan-Aug 2013 NSA ∆%: 2.7 Blog 9/28/14
Housing Starts and Permits	Sep Starts month SA ∆% 6.3; Permits ∆%: 1.5 Jan-Sep 2014/Jan-Sep 2013 NSA ∆% Starts 9.5; Permits  ∆% 3.4 Blog 10/19/14
Trade Balance	Balance Aug SA -$40,109 million versus Jul -$40,321 million Exports Aug SA ∆%: 0.2 Imports Aug SA ∆%: -0.1 Goods Exports Jan-Aug 2014/Jan-Aug 2013 NSA ∆%: 3.3 Goods Imports Jan-Aug 2014/Jan-Aug 2012 NSA ∆%: 3.1 Blog 10/12/14
Export and Import Prices	Sep 12-month NSA ∆%: Imports -0.9; Exports 0.2 Blog 10/12/14
Consumer Credit	Aug ∆% annual rate: Total 5.0; Revolving -0.3; Nonrevolving 7.0 Blog 10/12/14
Net Foreign Purchases of Long-term Treasury Securities	Aug Net Foreign Purchases of Long-term US Securities: minus $52.1 billion Major Holders of Treasury Securities: China $1270 billion; Japan $1230 billion; Total Foreign US Treasury Holdings Aug $6067 billion Blog 10/19/14
Treasury Budget	Fiscal Year 2014/2013 ∆% Sep: Receipts 8.9; Outlays 1.4; Individual Income Taxes 5.9 Deficit Fiscal Year 2011 $1,300 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2012 $1,087 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2013 $680 billion Blog 10/19/2014
CBO Budget and Economic Outlook	2012 Deficit $1087 B 6.8% GDP Debt $11,281 B 70.1% GDP 2013 Deficit $680 B, 4.1% GDP Debt $11,983 B 72.0% GDP 2024 Deficit $960B, 3.6% GDP Debt $20,554B 77.2% GDP 2039: Long-term Debt/GDP 106% Blog 8/26/12 11/18/12 2/10/13 9/22/13 2/16/14 8/24/14 9/14/14
Commercial Banks Assets and Liabilities	Aug 2014 SAAR ∆%: Securities -1.4 Loans 6.8 Cash Assets 16.2 Deposits -0.7 Blog 9/28/14
Flow of Funds	IIQ2014 ∆ since 2007 Assets +$14,244.2 BN Nonfinancial $224.1 BN Real estate -$419.6 BN Financial +14,020.1 BN Net Worth +$14,690.1 BN Blog 9/28/14
Current Account Balance of Payments	IIQ2014 -190,161 MM % GDP 2.3 Blog 9/21/14
Collapse of United States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation	Blog 8/24/14

Links to blog comments in Table USA:

10/12/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/global-financial-volatility-recovery.html

10/5/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/world-financial-turbulence-twenty-seven.html

9/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html

9/21/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

9/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitics-monetary-policy-and.html

9/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/competitive-monetary-policy-and.html

8/24/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/monetary-policy-world-inflation-waves.html

8/3/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/fluctuating-financial-valuations.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

9/22/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

2/10/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/united-states-unsustainable-fiscal.html

Sales of manufacturers decreased 0.4 percent in Aug 2014 after increasing 0.7 percent in Jul and increased 2.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug, as shown in Table VA-1. Retailers’ sales increased 0.6 percent in Aug 2014 after increasing 0.2 percent in Jul and increased 2.9 percent in 12 months ending in Aug 2014. Sales of merchant wholesalers decreased 0.7 percent in Aug, increased 0.2 percent in Jul and increased 2.9 percent in 12 months ending in Aug. Sales of total business decreased 0.4 percent in Aug after increasing 0.2 percent in Jul and increased 2.9 percent in 12 months.

Table VA-1, US, Percentage Changes for Sales of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers

	Aug 14/Jul 14 ∆% SA	Aug 2014 Millions of Dollars NSA	Jul 14/ Jun 14  ∆% SA	Aug 14/ Aug 13 ∆% NSA
Total Business	-0.4	1,368,815	0.7	2.5
Manufacturers	-1.0	513,768	1.4	1.9
Retailers	0.6	405,850	0.2	2.9
Merchant Wholesalers	-0.7	449,197	0.2	2.9

Source: US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/mtis/

Chart VA-1 of the US Census Bureau provides total US sales of manufacturing, retailers and wholesalers seasonally adjusted (SA) in millions of dollars. Seasonal adjustment softens adjacent changes for purposes of comparing short-term variations free of seasonal factors. There was sharp drop in the global recession followed by sharp recovery with decline and recovery in the final segment above the peak before the global recession. Data are not adjusted for price changes.

Chart VA-1, US, Total Business Sales of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, SA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 1992-Aug 2014

US Census Bureau

http://www.census.gov/mtis/

Chart VA-2 of the US Census Bureau provides total US sales of manufacturing, retailers and wholesalers not seasonally adjusted (NSA) in millions of dollars. The series without adjustment shows sharp jagged behavior because of monthly fluctuations following seasonal patterns. There is sharp recovery from the global recession in a robust trend, which is mixture of price and quantity effects because data are not adjusted for price changes. There is stability in the final segment with monthly marginal strength.

Chart VA-2, US, Total Business Sales of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, NSA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 1992-Aug 2014

US Census Bureau

http://www.census.gov/mtis/

Businesses added cautiously to inventories to replenish stocks. Retailers’ inventories reduced 0.3 percent in Aug 2014 and added 0.9 percent in Jul with growth of 5.7 percent in 12 months, as shown in Table VA-2. Total business increased inventories by 0.2 percent in Aug, 0.4 percent in Jul and 5.96percent in 12 months. Inventories sales/ratios of total business continued at a level close to 1.29 under careful management to avoid costs and risks. Inventory/sales ratios of manufacturers and retailers are higher than for merchant wholesalers. There is stability in inventory/sales ratios in individual months and relative to a year earlier.

Table VA-2, US, Percentage Changes for Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers and Inventory/Sales Ratios

Inventory Change	Aug 14 Millions of Dollars NSA	Aug 14/ Jul 14 ∆% SA	Jul 14/  Jun 14 ∆% SA	Aug 14/ Aug 13 ∆% NSA
Total Business	1,734,069	0.2	0.4	5.6
Manufacturers	658,128	0.1	0.0	3.6
Retailers	546,607	-0.3	0.9	5.7
Merchant Wholesalers	529,334	0.7	0.3	7.9
Inventory/ Sales Ratio	Aug 14 Millions of Dollars NSA	Aug 2014 SA	Jul 2014 SA	Aug 2013 SA
Total Business	1,734,069	1.29	1.29	1.28
Manufacturers	658,128	1.30	1.29	1.29
Retailers	546,607	1.41	1.43	1.40
Merchant Wholesalers	529,334	1.19	1.17	1.16

US Census Bureau

http://www.census.gov/mtis/

Chart VA-3 of the US Census Bureau provides total business inventories of manufacturers, retailers and merchant wholesalers seasonally adjusted (SA) in millions of dollars from Jan 1992 to Aug 2014. The impact of the two recessions of 2001 and IVQ2007 to IIQ2009 is evident in the form of sharp reductions in inventories. Inventories have surpassed the peak before the global recession. Data are not adjusted for price changes.

Chart VA-3, US, Total Business Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, SA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 1992-Aug 2014

US Census Bureau

http://www.census.gov/mtis/

Chart VA-4 provides total business inventories of manufacturers, retailers and merchant wholesalers not seasonally adjusted (NSA) from Jan 1992 to Aug 2014 in millions of dollars. The recessions of 2001 and IVQ2007 to IIQ2009 are evident in the form of sharp reductions of inventories. There is sharp upward trend of inventory accumulation after both recessions. Total business inventories are higher than in the peak before the global recession.

Chart VA-4, US, Total Business Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, NSA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 1992-Aug 2014

US Census Bureau

http://www.census.gov/mtis/

Inventories follow business cycles. When recession hits sales inventories pile up, declining with expansion of the economy. In a fascinating classic opus, Lloyd Meltzer (1941, 129) concludes:

“The dynamic sequences (i) through (6) were intended to show what types of behavior are possible for a system containing a sales output lag. The following conclusions seem to be the most important:

(i) An economy in which business men attempt to recoup inventory losses will always undergo cyclical fluctuations when equilibrium is disturbed, provided the economy is stable.

This is the pure inventory cycle.

(2) The assumption of stability imposes severe limitations upon the possible size of the marginal propensity to consume, particularly if the coefficient of expectation is positive.

(3) The inventory accelerator is a more powerful de-stabilizer than the ordinary acceleration principle. The difference in stability conditions is due to the fact that the former allows for replacement demand whereas the usual analytical formulation of the latter does not. Thus, for inventories, replacement demand acts as a de-stabilizer. Whether it does so for all types of capital goods is a moot question, but I believe cases may occur in which it does not.

(4) Investment for inventory purposes cannot alter the equilibrium of income, which depends only upon the propensity to consume and the amount of non-induced investment.

(5) The apparent instability of a system containing both an accelerator and a coefficient of expectation makes further investigation of possible stabilizers highly desirable.”

Chart VA-5 shows the increase in the inventory/sales ratios during the recession of 2007-2009. The inventory/sales ratio fell during the expansions. The inventory/sales ratio declined to a trough in 2011, climbed and then stabilized at current levels in 2012, 2013 and 2014.

Chart VA-5, Total Business Inventories/Sales Ratios 2005 to 2014

Source: US Census Bureau

http://www2.census.gov/mtis/historical/img/mtisbrf.gif

Sales of retail and food services increased 0.6 percent in Sep 2014 after increasing 0.3 percent in Aug 2014 seasonally adjusted (SA), growing 3.9 percent in Jan-Sep 2014 relative to Jan-Sep 2013 not seasonally adjusted (NSA), as shown in Table VA-3. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales increased 0.3 percent in Sep 2014, increasing 0.3 percent in Aug 2014 SA and increasing 2.9 percent NSA in Jan-Sep 2014 relative to a year earlier. Sales of motor vehicles and parts increased 1.5 percent in Sep 2014 after increasing 0.6 percent in Aug 2014 SA and increasing 8.1 percent NSA in Jan-Sep 2014 relative to a year earlier. Gasoline station sales decreased 0.8 percent SA in Sep 2014 after changing 0.0 percent in Aug 2014 in oscillating prices of gasoline that are moderating, decreasing 1.3 percent in Jan-Sep 2014 relative to a year earlier.

Table VA-3, US, Percentage Change in Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, ∆%

	Sep/Aug ∆% SA	Aug/Jul ∆% SA	Jan-Sep 2014 Million Dollars NSA	Jan-Sep 2014 from Jan-Sep 2013 ∆% NSA
Retail and Food Services	0.6	0.3	3,881,115	3.9
Excluding Motor Vehicles and Parts	0.3	0.3	3,081,623	2.9
Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers	1.5	0.6	799,492	8.1
Retail	0.6	0.3	3,457,118	3.8
Building Materials	1.4	-0.5	248,138	4.5
Food and Beverage	0.3	0.2	493,970	2.7
Grocery	0.4	0.3	440,928	2.2
Health & Personal Care Stores	0.6	0.6	219,741	6.0
Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores	0.3	0.9	176,325	1.7
Gasoline Stations	-0.8	0.0	412,881	-1.3
General Merchandise Stores	-0.1	0.4	473,038	1.6
Food Services & Drinking Places	0.6	0.4	423,997	5.2

Source: US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/retail/

Chart VA-6 provides monthly percentage changes of sales of retail and food services. There is significant monthly volatility that prevents identification of clear trends.

Chart VA-6, US, Monthly Percentage Change of Retail and Food Services Sales, Jan 1992-Sep 2014

Source: US Census Bureau

http://www.census.gov/retail/

Chart VA-7 of the US Census Bureau provides total sales of retail trade and food services seasonally adjusted (SA) from Jan 1992 to Sep 2014 in millions of dollars. The impact on sales of the shallow recession of 2001 was much milder than the sharp contraction in the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. There is flattening in the final segment of the series followed by another increase. Data are not adjusted for price changes.

Chart VA-7, US, Total Sales of Retail Trade and Food Services, SA, Jan 1992-Aug 2014, Millions of Dollars

Source: US Census Bureau

http://www.census.gov/retail/

Chart VA-8 of the US Census Bureau provides total sales of retail trade and food services not seasonally adjusted (NSA) in millions of dollars from Jan 1992 to Sep 2014. Data are not adjusted for seasonality, which explains sharp jagged behavior, or price changes. There was contraction during the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009 with strong rebound to a higher level and stability followed by strong increase in the final segment.

Chart VA-8, US, Total Sales of Retail Trade and Food Services, NSA, Jan 1992-Aug 2014, Millions of Dollars

Source: US Census Bureau

http://www.census.gov/retail/

Seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts and permits are shown in Table VA-4. Housing starts increased 6.3 percent in Sep 2014 after wide oscillations that included increases of 20.8 percent in Jul, 11.9 percent in Apr, 2.4 percent in Mar, 3.5 percent in Feb, decreases of 12.8 percent in Jul, 7.6 percent in Jun, 7.4 percent in May and 13.2 percent in Jan. There were increases of 18.1 percent in Nov 2013, decline of 14.7 percent in Apr 2013 and 9.2 percent in Jun 2013. Housing starts increased 17.8 percent from the SAAR of 863 in Sep 2013 to the SAAR of 1017 in Sep 2014. Housing permits, indicating future activity, increased 1.5 percent in Sep 2014 and decreased 5.1 percent in Jul 2014 and 3.2 percent in Jun 2014. There were significant oscillations with increase of 8.6 percent in Jul 2014. Housing starts increased 2.5 percent from 993 SSAR in Sep 2013 to SSAR of 1018 in Sep 2014. While single unit houses starts increased 1.1 percent in Sep 2014, seasonally adjusted, structures with five units or more increased 18.5 percent. Multifamily residential construction is increasing at a faster rate than single-family construction with wide monthly oscillations. Monthly rates in starts and permits fluctuate significantly as shown in Table VA-4.

Table VA-4, US, Housing Starts and Permits SSAR Month ∆%

	Housing  Starts SAAR	Month ∆%	Housing Permits SAAR	Month ∆%
Sep 2014	1017	6.3	1018	1.5
Aug	957	-12.8	1003	-5.1
Jul	1098	20.8	1057	8.6
Jun	909	-7.6	973	-3.2
May	984	-7.4	1005	-5.1
Apr	1063	11.9	1059	5.9
Mar	950	2.4	1000	-1.1
Feb	928	3.5	1011	7.7
Jan	897	-13.2	939	-8.1
Dec 2013	1034	-6.4	1022	-1.4
Nov	1105	18.1	1037	-2.8
Oct	936	8.5	1067	7.5
Sep	863	-2.5	993	4.7
Aug	885	-1.4	948	-3.0
Jul	898	8.1	977	4.2
Jun	831	-9.2	938	-7.1
May	915	7.9	1010	-2.9
Apr	848	-14.7	1040	12.3
Mar	994	4.5	926	-5.1
Feb	951	6.1	976	3.1
Jan	896	-8.2	947	1.0
Dec 2012	976	17.2	938	0.9
Nov	833	-9.0	930	3.9
Oct	915	8.0	895	-2.8
Sep	847	12.3	921	10.7
Aug	754	1.9	832	-1.0
Jul	740	-2.2	840	6.3
Jun	757	6.9	790	-2.1
May	708	-6.0	807	8.0
Apr	753	8.3	747	-6.3
Mar	695	-1.3	797	8.7
Feb	704	-2.6	733	2.5
Jan	723	4.2	715	2.6
Dec 2011	694	-2.4	697	-1.3
Nov	711	16.6	706	5.2
Oct	610	-6.2	671	10.0
Sep	650	11.1	610	-5.7
Aug	585	-6.1	647	4.2
Jul	623	2.5	621	-2.4
Jun	608	8.4	636	2.9
May	561	1.3	618	6.4
Apr	554	-7.7	581	-0.3
Mar	600	16.1	583	7.6
Feb	517	-17.9	542	-5.9
Jan	630	16.9	576	-8.9
Dec 2010	539	-1.1	632	12.9
Nov	545	0.4	560	0.4
Oct	543	-8.6	558	-0.9
Sep	594	-0.8	563	-2.9

SAAR: Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Source: US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/

Housing starts and permits in Jan-Sep not-seasonally adjusted are in Table VA-5. Housing starts increased 9.5 percent in Jan-Sep 2014 relative to Jan-Sep 2013 and new permits increased 3.4 percent. Construction of new houses in the US remains at very depressed levels. Housing starts fell 47.3 percent in Jan-Sep 2014 relative to Jan-Sep 2006 and fell 52.2 percent relative to Jan-Sep 2005. Housing permits fell 47.8 percent in Jan-Sep 2014 relative to Jan-Sep 2006 and fell 53.6 percent relative to Jan-Sep 2005.

Table VA-5, US, Housing Starts and New Permits, Thousands of Units, NSA, and %

	Housing Starts	New Permits
Jan-Sep 2014	760.9	772.8
Jan-Sep 2013	695.1	747.1
∆% Jan-Sep 2014/Jan-Sep 2013	9.5	3.4
Jan-Sep 2006	1442.7	1480.8
∆% Jan-Sep 2014/Jan-Sep 2006	-47.3	-47.8
Jan-Sep 2005	1591.0	1665.0
∆% Jan-Sep 2014/Jan-Sep 2005	-52.2	-53.6

Source: US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/

Chart VA-9 of the US Census Bureau shows the sharp increase in construction of new houses from 2000 to 2006. Housing construction fell sharply through the recession, recovering from the trough around IIQ2009. The right-hand side of Chart VA-1 shows a mild downward trend or stagnation from mid-2010 to the present in single-family houses with a recent mild upward trend in recent months in the category of two or more units but marginal decline in some recent months. While single unit houses starts increased 3.8 percent in Jan-Sep 2014 relative to a year earlier, not seasonally adjusted, structures with two to four units increased 3.8 percent and with five units or more increased 22.7 percent. Single unit houses were 66.8 percent of total housing starts in 2013, increasing 15.4 percent relative to 2012, while construction of five units of more were 31.8 percent, increasing 25.6 percent, and construction of two to four units were 1.5 percent of the total, increasing 19.3 percent.

Chart VA-9, US, Total and Single-Family New Housing Units Started in the US, SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate)

Source: US Census Bureau

http://www.census.gov/briefrm/esbr/www/esbr020.html

Table VA-6 provides new housing units that started in the US at seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) from Jan to Sep of the years from 2000 to 2014. SAARs have dropped from high levels around 2 million in 2005-2006 to the range of 848,000 in Apr 2013 to 1,034,000 in Dec 2013 and 1,017 in Aug 2014, which is an improvement over the range of 517,000 in Feb 2011 to 711,000 in Nov 2011. Improvement continued with 1,034,000 in Dec 2013 relative to 976,000 in Dec 2012. The rate of housing starts increased to 1,017,000 in Sep 2014 relative to 863,000 in Sep 2013.

Table VA-6, US, New Housing United Started at Seasonally Adjusted Rates, Thousand Units

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep
2000	1,636	1,737	1,604	1,626	1,575	1,559	1,463	1,541	1,507
2001	1,600	1,625	1,590	1,649	1,605	1,636	1,670	1,567	1,562
2002	1,698	1,829	1,642	1,592	1,764	1,717	1,655	1,633	1,804
2003	1,853	1,629	1,726	1,643	1,751	1,867	1,897	1,833	1,939
2004	1,911	1,846	1,998	2,003	1,981	1,828	2,002	2,024	1,905
2005	2,144	2,207	1,864	2,061	2,025	2,068	2,054	2,095	2,151
2006	2,273	2,119	1,969	1,821	1,942	1,802	1,737	1,650	1,720
2007	1,409	1,480	1,495	1,490	1,415	1,448	1,354	1,330	1,183
2008	1,084	1,103	1,005	1,013	973	1,046	923	844	820
2009	490	582	505	478	540	585	594	586	585
2010	614	604	636	687	583	536	546	599	594
2011	630	517	600	554	561	608	623	585	650
2012	723	704	695	753	708	757	740	754	847
2013	896	951	994	848	915	831	898	885	863
2014	897	928	950	1,063	984	909	1,098	957	1,017

Source: US Census Bureau

http://www.census.gov/briefrm/esbr/www/esbr020.html

Chart VA-10 of the US Census Bureau provides construction of new housing units started in the US at seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) from Jan 1959 to Sep 2014 that helps to analyze in historical perspective the debacle of US new house construction. There are three periods in the series. (1) There is stationary behavior with wide fluctuations from 1959 to the beginning of the decade of the 1970s. (2) There is sharp upward trend from the 1990s to 2006 propelled by the US housing subsidy, politics of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and unconventional monetary policy of near zero interest rates from Jun 2003 to Jun 2004 and suspension of the auction of 30-year Treasury bonds intended to lower mortgage rates. The financial crisis and global recession were caused by interest rate and housing subsidies and affordability policies that encouraged high leverage and risks, low liquidity and unsound credit (Pelaez and Pelaez, Financial Regulation after the Global Recession (2009a), 157-66, Regulation of Banks and Finance (2009b), 217-27, International Financial Architecture (2005), 15-18, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 221-5, Globalization and the State Vol. II (2008b), 197-213, Government Intervention in Globalization (2008c), 182-4). Several past comments of this blog elaborate on these arguments, among which: http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2011/07/causes-of-2007-creditdollar-crisis.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2011/01/professor-mckinnons-bubble-economy.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2011/01/world-inflation-quantitative-easing.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2011/01/treasury-yields-valuation-of-risk.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2010/11/quantitative-easing-theory-evidence-and.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2010/12/is-fed-printing-money-what-are.html. (3) There is insufficient recovery during the weak expansion after IIIQ2009.

Chart VA-10, US, New Housing Units Started in the US, SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), Thousands of Units, Jan 1959-Sep 2014

Source: US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/

Table VA-7 provides actual new housing units started in the US, not seasonally adjusted, from Jan to Sep in the years from 2000 to 2014. The number of housing units started fell from the peak of 197.9 thousand in May 2005 to 67.6 thousand in Dec 2013 or decline of 65.8 percent in large part because of lower seasonal activity at the end of the year. The number of housing units started jumped from 75.8 thousand in Sep 2012 to 93.2 thousand in Sep 2014 or by 23.0 percent and increased 58.5 percent from 58.8 thousand in Sep 2011. The number of housing units started increased from 78.4 thousand in Sep 2013 to 93.2 thousand in Sep 2014 or 18.9 percent.

Table VA-7, New Housing Units Started in the US, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Thousands of Units

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep
2000	104.0	119.7	133.4	149.5	152.9	146.3	135.0	141.4	128.9
2001	106.4	108.2	133.2	151.3	154.0	155.2	154.6	141.5	133.1
2002	110.4	120.4	138.2	148.8	165.5	160.3	155.9	147.0	155.6
2003	117.8	109.7	147.2	151.2	165.0	174.5	175.8	163.8	171.3
2004	124.5	126.4	173.8	179.5	187.6	172.3	182.0	185.9	164.0
2005	142.9	149.1	156.2	184.6	197.9	192.8	187.6	192.0	187.9
2006	153.0	145.1	165.9	160.5	190.2	170.2	160.9	146.8	150.1
2007	95.0	103.1	123.8	135.6	136.5	137.8	127.9	121.2	101.5
2008	70.8	78.4	82.2	89.5	91.7	102.5	86.7	76.4	73.9
2009	31.9	39.8	42.7	42.5	52.2	59.1	56.8	52.9	52.6
2010	38.9	40.7	54.7	62.0	56.2	53.8	51.5	56.3	53.0
2011	40.2	35.4	49.9	49.0	54.0	60.5	57.6	54.5	58.8
2012	47.2	49.7	58.0	66.8	67.8	74.7	69.2	69.0	75.8
2013	58.7	66.1	83.3	76.3	87.2	80.7	84.0	80.4	78.4
2014	60.7	65.1	80.2	94.9	92.5	87.3	101.0	86.0	93.2

Source: US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/

Chart VA-11 of the US Census Bureau provides new housing units started in the US not seasonally adjusted (NSA) from Jan 1959 to Sep 2014. There is the same behavior as in Chart VA-10 SA but with sharper fluctuations in the original series without seasonal adjustment. There are the same three periods. (1) The series is virtually stationary with wide fluctuations from 1959 to the late 1980s. (2) There is downward trend during the savings and loans crisis of the 1980s. Benston and Kaufman (1997, 139) find that there was failure of 1150 US commercial and savings banks between 1983 and 1990, or about 8 percent of the industry in 1980, which is nearly twice more than between the establishment of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation in 1934 through 1983. More than 900 savings and loans associations, representing 25 percent of the industry, were closed, merged or placed in conservatorships (see Pelaez and Pelaez, Regulation of Banks and Finance (2008b), 74-7). The Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery and Enforcement Act of 1989 (FIRREA) created the Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC) and the Savings Association Insurance Fund (SAIF) that received $150 billion of taxpayer funds to resolve insolvent savings and loans. The GDP of the US in 1989 was $4346.7 billion (http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm), such that the partial cost to taxpayers of that bailout was around 3.45 percent of GDP in a year. US GDP in 2013 is estimated at $16,799.7 billion, such that the bailout would be equivalent to cost to taxpayers of about $579.6 billion in current GDP terms. A major difference with the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) for private-sector banks is that most of the costs were recovered with interest gains whereas in the case of savings and loans there was no recovery. (3) There is vertical drop of new housing construction in the US during the global recession from (Dec) IVQ2007 to (Jun) IIQ2009 (http://www.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html). The final segment shows upward trend but it could be simply part of yet another fluctuation. Marginal improvement in housing in the US should not obscure the current depressed levels relative to earlier periods.

Chart VA-11, US, New Housing Units Started in the US, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Thousands of Units, Jan 1959-Sep 2014

Source: US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/

Chart VA-12 of the US Census Bureau provides single-family houses started without seasonal adjustment. There was sharp increase from 1992 to 2007 followed by sharp decline. The recovery is sluggish.

Chart VA-12, US, Single-family Houses Started, Thousands of Units, Jan-1959-Sep 2014, NSA

Source: US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc

Chart VA-13 of the US Census Bureau provides housing units started with five units or more. Construction was stagnant before the drop in the global recession. Recovery is stronger than in the case of single-family units.

Chart VA-13, US, Housing Units Stated in Buildings with Five Units or More, Thousands of Units, Jan-1959-Sep 2014, NSA

Source: US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/

A longer perspective on residential construction in the US is provided by Table VA-8 with annual data from 1960 to 2013. Housing starts fell 55.3 percent from 2005 to 2013, 41.0 percent from 2000 to 2013 and 35.3 percent relative to the average from 1959 to 1963. Housing permits fell 54.0 percent from 2005 to 2013, 37.8 percent from 2000 to 2013 and 14.5 percent from the average of 1969-1963 to 2013. Housing starts rose 31.8 from 2000 to 2005 while housing permits grew 35.4 percent. From 1990 to 2000, housing starts increased 31.5 percent while permits increased 43.3 percent.

Table VA-8, US, Annual New Privately Owned Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits in Permit-Issuing Places and New Privately Owned Housing Units Started, Thousands

	Starts	Permits
2013	924.9	990.8
2012	780.6	829.7
∆% 2013/2012	18.5	19.4
∆% 2013/2011	51.9	58.8
∆% 2013/2010	57.6	63.9
∆% 2013/2006	-48.6	-46.1
∆% 2013/2005	-55.3	-54.0
∆% 2013/2000	-41.0	-37.8
∆% 2013/Av 1959-1963	-35.3	-14.5
2011	608.8	624.1
∆% 2012/2005	-62.3	-61.5
∆% 2012/2000	-50.2	-47.9
∆% 2012/Av 1959-1963	-45.4	-28.4
2011	608.8	624.1
2010	586.9	604.6
2009	554.0	583.0
2008	905.5	905.4
2007	1,355,0	1,398.4
2006	1,800.9	1,838.9
2005	2,068.3	2,155.3
∆% 2005/2000	31.8	35.4
2004	1,955.8	2,070.1
2003	1,847.7	1,889.2
2002	1,704.9	1,747.7
2001	1,602.7	1,636.7
2000	1,568.7	1,592.3
∆% 2000/1990	31.5	43.3
1990	1,192,7	1,110.8
1980	1,292.2	1,190.6
1970	1,433.6	1,351.5
Average 1959-63	1,429.7	1,158.2

Source: US Census Bureau

http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/

Risk aversion channels funds toward US long-term and short-term securities that finance the US balance of payments and fiscal deficits benefitting from risk flight to US dollar denominated assets. There are now temporary interruptions because of fear of rising interest rates that erode prices of US government securities because of mixed signals on monetary policy and exit from the Fed balance sheet of four trillion dollars of securities held outright. Net foreign purchases of US long-term securities (row C in Table VA-9) increased from minus $18.6 billion in Jul 2014 to $52.1 billion in Aug 2014. Foreign (residents) purchases minus sales of US long-term securities (row A in Table VA-9) in Jul 2014 of minus $3.9 billion increased to $26.5 billion in Aug 2014. Net US (residents) purchases of long-term foreign securities (row B in Table VA-9) increased from minus $14.7 billion in Jul 2014 to $25.5 billion in Aug 2014. In Aug 2014,

C = A + B = $26.5 billion + $25.5 billion = $52.1 billion

There are minor rounding errors. There is strengthening demand in Table VA-9 in Aug in A1 private purchases by residents overseas of US long-term securities of $20.7 billion of which improvement in A11 Treasury securities of $22.1 billion, improvement in A12 of $11.3 billion in agency securities, deterioration of minus $8.6 billion of corporate bonds and deterioration of $4.2 billion in equities. Worldwide risk aversion causes flight into US Treasury obligations with significant oscillations. Official purchases of securities in row A2 increased $5.9 billion with increase of Treasury securities of $3.6 billion in Aug 2014. Official purchases of agency securities decreased $1.0 billion in Aug. Row D shows increase in Aug 2014 of $21.8 billion in purchases of short-term dollar denominated obligations. Foreign private holdings of US Treasury bills increased $4.4 billion (row D11) with foreign official holdings increasing $5.8 billion while the category “other” increased $11.5 billion. Foreign private holdings of US Treasury bills increased $4.4 billion in what could be arbitrage of duration exposures. Risk aversion of default losses in foreign securities dominates decisions to accept zero interest rates in Treasury securities with no perception of principal losses. In the case of long-term securities, investors prefer to sacrifice inflation and possible duration risk to avoid principal losses with significant oscillations in risk perceptions.

Table VA-9, Net Cross-Borders Flows of US Long-Term Securities, Billion Dollars, NSA

	Jun 2013 12 Months	Jun 2014 12 Months	Jul 2014	Aug 2014
A Foreign Purchases less Sales of US LT Securities	198.4	192.3	-3.9	26.5
A1 Private	62.3	142.1	1.9	20.7
A11 Treasury	-15.8	166.1	5.2	22.1
A12 Agency	50.3	7.4	7.2	11.3
A13 Corporate Bonds	-4.3	-38.9	-8.5	-8.6
A14 Equities	32.1	7.4	-2.0	-4.2
A2 Official	136.1	50.2	-5.8	5.9
A21 Treasury	32.4	41.4	-6.0	3.6
A22 Agency	80.4	12.2	0.3	-1.0
A23 Corporate Bonds	18.3	8.3	1.4	1.3
A24 Equities	4.9	-11.7	-1.5	2.0
B Net US Purchases of LT Foreign Securities	-181.7	-167.3	-14.7	25.5
B1 Foreign Bonds	-46.0	-31.3	-6.1	8.1
B2 Foreign Equities	-135.7	-136.0	-8.6	17.5
C Net Foreign Purchases of US LT Securities	16.6	25.0	-18.6	52.1
D Increase in Foreign Holdings of Dollar Denominated Short-term	-17.7	7.3	-6.0	21.8
D1 US Treasury Bills	12.0	-41.1	-6.8	10.2
D11 Private	11.8	-6.5	1.5	4.4
D12 Official	0.3	-34.7	-8.3	5.8
D2 Other	-29.7	48.5	0.9	11.5

C = A + B;

A = A1 + A2

A1 = A11 + A12 + A13 + A14

A2 = A21 + A22 + A23 + A24

B = B1 + B2

D = D1 + D2

Sources: United States Treasury

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Pages/ticpress.aspx

http://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/jl2609.aspx

Table VA-10 provides major foreign holders of US Treasury securities. China is the largest holder with $1269.7 billion in Aug 2014, increasing 0.1 percent from $1268.1 billion in Aug 2013 while increasing $4.8 billion from Jul 2014 or 0.4 percent. The United States Treasury estimates US government debt held by private investors at $9670 billion in Jun 2014. China’s holding of US Treasury securities represent 13.1 percent of US government marketable interest-bearing debt held by private investors (http://www.fms.treas.gov/bulletin/index.html). Min Zeng, writing on “China plays a big role as US Treasury yields fall,” on Jul 16, 2004, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/articles/china-plays-a-big-role-as-u-s-treasury-yields-fall-1405545034?tesla=y&mg=reno64-wsj), finds that acceleration in purchases of US Treasury securities by China has been an important factor in the decline of Treasury yields in 2014. Japan increased its holdings from $1149.1 billion in Aug 2013 to $1230.1 billion in Aug 2014 or 7.0 percent. The combined holdings of China and Japan in Aug 2014 add to $2500 billion, which is equivalent to 25.9 percent of US government marketable interest-bearing securities held by investors of $9670 billion in Jun 2014 (http://www.fms.treas.gov/bulletin/index.html). Total foreign holdings of Treasury securities rose from $5595.8 billion in Aug 2013 to $6066.6 billion in Aug 2014, or 8.4 percent. The US continues to finance its fiscal and balance of payments deficits with foreign savings (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007)). A point of saturation of holdings of US Treasury debt may be reached as foreign holders evaluate the threat of reduction of principal by dollar devaluation and reduction of prices by increases in yield, including possibly risk premium. Shultz et al (2012) find that the Fed financed three-quarters of the US deficit in fiscal year 2011, with foreign governments financing significant part of the remainder of the US deficit while the Fed owns one in six dollars of US national debt. Concentrations of debt in few holders are perilous because of sudden exodus in fear of devaluation and yield increases and the limit of refinancing old debt and placing new debt. In their classic work on “unpleasant monetarist arithmetic,” Sargent and Wallace (1981, 2) consider a regime of domination of monetary policy by fiscal policy (emphasis added):

“Imagine that fiscal policy dominates monetary policy. The fiscal authority independently sets its budgets, announcing all current and future deficits and surpluses and thus determining the amount of revenue that must be raised through bond sales and seignorage. Under this second coordination scheme, the monetary authority faces the constraints imposed by the demand for government bonds, for it must try to finance with seignorage any discrepancy between the revenue demanded by the fiscal authority and the amount of bonds that can be sold to the public. Suppose that the demand for government bonds implies an interest rate on bonds greater than the economy’s rate of growth. Then if the fiscal authority runs deficits, the monetary authority is unable to control either the growth rate of the monetary base or inflation forever. If the principal and interest due on these additional bonds are raised by selling still more bonds, so as to continue to hold down the growth of base money, then, because the interest rate on bonds is greater than the economy’s growth rate, the real stock of bonds will growth faster than the size of the economy. This cannot go on forever, since the demand for bonds places an upper limit on the stock of bonds relative to the size of the economy. Once that limit is reached, the principal and interest due on the bonds already sold to fight inflation must be financed, at least in part, by seignorage, requiring the creation of additional base money.”

Table VA-10, US, Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities $ Billions at End of Period

	Aug 2014	Jul 2014	Aug 2013
Total	6066.6	5998.0	5595.8
China	1269.7	1264.9	1268.1
Japan	1230.1	1219.0	1149.1
Belgium	359.9	352.6	166.8
Caribbean Banking Centers	313.9	313.5	301.9
Oil Exporters	267.5	261.3	246.5
Brazil	261.7	258.6	252.9
Switzerland	189.1	184.2	181.2
Taiwan	172.9	175.4	183.6
United Kingdom	172.8	173.1	159.2
Hong Kong	160.5	158.7	126.5
Luxembourg	150.5	145.6	143.8
Russia	118.1	114.5	136.0
Ireland	106.8	106.0	120.0
Foreign Official Holdings	4157.3	4111.7	3974.5
A. Treasury Bills	338.6	332.7	373.2
B. Treasury Bonds and Notes	3818.8	3779.0	3601.3

Source: United States Treasury

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Pages/ticpress.aspx

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Pages/index.aspx

Table VA-11 provides additional information required for understanding the deficit/debt situation of the United States. The table is divided into four parts: Treasury budget in the 2014 fiscal year beginning on Oct 1, 2013 and ending on Sep 30, 2014; federal fiscal data for the years from 2009 to 2013; federal fiscal data for the years from 2005 to 2008; and Treasury debt held by the public from 2005 to 2013. Receipts increased 8.9 percent in the cumulative fiscal year 2014 ending in Sep 2014 relative to the cumulative in fiscal year 2013. Individual income taxes increased 5.9 percent relative to the same fiscal period a year earlier. Outlays increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. There are also receipts, outlays, deficit and debt for fiscal year 2013. Total revenues of the US from 2009 to 2012 accumulate to $9021 billion, or $9.0 trillion, while expenditures or outlays accumulate to $14,109 billion, or $14.1 trillion, with the deficit accumulating to $5090 billion, or $5.1 trillion. Revenues decreased 6.5 percent from $9653 billion in the four years from 2005 to 2008 to $9021 billion in the years from 2009 to 2012. Decreasing revenues were caused by the global recession from IVQ2007 (Dec) to IIQ2009 (Jun) and also by growth of only 2.2 percent on average in the cyclical expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2014. In contrast, the expansion from IQ1983 to IIIQ1987 was at the average annual growth rate of 4.9 percent and at 7.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html). Because of mediocre GDP growth, there are 26.5 million unemployed or underemployed in the United States for an effective unemployment rate of 16.1 percent (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/world-financial-turbulence-twenty-seven.html). Weakness of growth and employment creation is analyzed in II Collapse of United States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/monetary-policy-world-inflation-waves.html). In contrast with the decline of revenue, outlays or expenditures increased 30.2 percent from $10,839 billion, or $10.8 trillion, in the four years from 2005 to 2008, to $14,109 billion, or $14.1 trillion, in the four years from 2009 to 2012. Increase in expenditures by 30.2 percent while revenue declined by 6.5 percent caused the increase in the federal deficit from $1186 billion in 2005-2008 to $5090 billion in 2009-2012. Federal revenue was 14.9 percent of GDP on average in the years from 2009 to 2012, which is well below 17.4 percent of GDP on average from 1973 to 2012. Federal outlays were 23.3 percent of GDP on average from 2009 to 2012, which is well above 20.4 percent of GDP on average from 1973 to 2012. The lower part of Table VA-6 shows that debt held by the public swelled from $5803 billion in 2008 to $11,982 billion in 2013, by $5478 billion or 106.5 percent. Debt held by the public as percent of GDP or economic activity jumped from 39.3 percent in 2008 to 72.1 percent in 2013, which is well above the average of 38.0 percent from 1973 to 2012. The United States faces tough adjustment because growth is unlikely to recover, creating limits on what can be obtained by increasing revenues, while continuing stress of social programs restricts what can be obtained by reducing expenditures.

Table VA-11, US, Treasury Budget in Fiscal Year to Date Million Dollars

Sep 2014	Fiscal Year 2014	Fiscal Year 2013	∆%
Receipts	3,020,848	2,774,011	8.9
Outlays	3,504,199	3,454,223	1.4
Deficit	-483,350	-680,212
Individual Income Tax	1,394,567	1,316,405	5.9
Corporation Income Tax	320,731	273,506	17.3
Social Insurance	735,602	673,274	9.3
	Receipts	Outlays	Deficit (-), Surplus (+)
$ Billions
Fiscal Year 2013	2,775	3,455	-680
% GDP	16.7	20.8	-4.1
Fiscal Year 2012	2,450	3,537	-1,087
% GDP	15.2	22.0	-6.8
Fiscal Year 2011	2,304	3,603	-1,300
% GDP	15.0	23.4	-8.4
Fiscal Year 2010	2,163	3,457	-1,294
% GDP	14.6	23.4	-8.8
Fiscal Year 2009	2,105	3,518	-1,413
% GDP	14.6	24.4	-9.8
Total 2009-2012	9,021	14,109	-5,090
Average % GDP 2009-2012	14.9	23.3	-8.4
Fiscal Year 2008	2,524	2,983	-459
% GDP	17.1	20.2	-3.1
Fiscal Year 2007	2,568	2,729	-161
% GDP	17.9	19.0	-1.1
Fiscal Year 2006	2,407	2,655	-248
% GDP	17.6	19.4	-1.8
Fiscal Year 2005	2,154	2,472	-318
% GDP	16.7	19.2	-2.5
Total 2005-2008	9,653	10,839	-1,186
Average % GDP 2005-2008	17.3	19.5	-2.1
Debt Held by the Public	Billions of Dollars	Percent of GDP
2005	4,592	35.6
2006	4,829	35.3
2007	5,035	35.1
2008	5,803	39.3
2009	7,545	52.3
2010	9,019	61.0
2011	10,128	65.8
2012	11,281	70.1
2013	11,982	72.0

Source: http://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/fsreports/rpt/mthTreasStmt/mthTreasStmt_home.htm CBO (2012NovMBR). CBO (2011AugBEO); Office of Management and Budget 2011. Historical Tables. Budget of the US Government Fiscal Year 2011. Washington, DC: OMB; CBO. 2011JanBEO. Budget and Economic Outlook. Washington, DC, Jan. CBO. 2012AugBEO. Budget and Economic Outlook. Washington, DC, Aug 22. CBO. 2012Jan31. Historical budget data. Washington, DC, Jan 31. CBO. 2012NovCDR. Choices for deficit reduction. Washington, DC. Nov. CBO. 2013HBDFeb5. Historical budget data—February 2013 baseline projections. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Feb 5. CBO. 2013HBDFeb5. Historical budget data—February 2013 baseline projections. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Feb 5. CBO (2013Aug12). 2013AugHBD. Historical budget data—August 2013. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Aug. CBO, Historical Budget Data—February 2014, Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Feb. CBO, Historical budget data—April 2014 release. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Apr. Congressional Budget Office, August 2014 baseline: an update to the budget and economic outlook: 2014 to 2024. Washington, DC, CBO, Aug 27, 2014.

VB Japan. The GDP of Japan grew at 1.0 percent per year on average from 1991 to 2002, with the GDP implicit deflator falling at 0.8 percent per year on average. The average growth rate of Japan’s GDP was 4 percent per year on average from the middle of the 1970s to 1992 (Ito 2004). Low growth in Japan in the 1990s is commonly labeled as “the lost decade” (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 81-115). Table VB-GDP provides yearly growth rates of Japan’s GDP from 1995 to 2013. Growth weakened from 2.7 per cent in 1995 and 1996 to contractions of 1.5 percent in 1999 and 0.4 percent in 2001 and growth rates below 2 percent with exception of 2.3 percent in 2003. Japan’s GDP contracted sharply by 3.7 percent in 2006 and 2.0 percent in 2009. As in most advanced economies, growth was robust at 3.4 percent in 2010 but mediocre at 0.3 percent in 2011 and 0.7 percent in 2013. Japan’s GDP grew 2.3 percent in 2013.

Table VB-GDP, Japan, Yearly Percentage Change of GDP  ∆%

Calendar Year	∆%
1995	2.7
1996	2.7
1997	0.1
1998	-1.5
1999	0.5
2000	2.0
2001	-0.4
2002	1.1
2003	2.3
2004	1.5
2005	1.9
2006	1.8
2007	1.8
2008	-3.7
2009	-2.0
2010	3.4
2011	0.3
2012	0.7
2013	2.3

Source: Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html

Table VB-BOJF provides the forecasts of economic activity and inflation in Japan by the majority of members of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, which is part of their Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1404b.pdf) with changes on Jul 14, 2014 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140715a.pdf). For fiscal 2013, the forecast is of growth of GDP between 2.2 and 2.3 percent, with the all items CPI less fresh food of 0.8 percent (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1404b.pdf). The critical difference is forecast of the CPI excluding fresh food of 3.2 to 3.5 percent in 2014, 1.9 to 2.8 percent in 2015 and 2.0 to 3.0 in 2016 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140715a.pdf). Consumer price inflation in Japan excluding fresh food was 0.4 percent in Apr 2014 and 3.4 percent in 12 months (http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1581.htm), significantly because of the increase of the tax on value added of consumption in Apr 2014. The new monetary policy of the Bank of Japan aims to increase inflation to 2 percent. These forecasts are biannual in Apr and Oct. The Cabinet Office, Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan released on Jan 22, 2013, a “Joint Statement of the Government and the Bank of Japan on Overcoming Deflation and Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130122c.pdf) with the important change of increasing the inflation target of monetary policy from 1 percent to 2 percent:

“The Bank of Japan conducts monetary policy based on the principle that the policy shall be aimed at achieving price stability, thereby contributing to the sound development of the national economy, and is responsible for maintaining financial system stability. The Bank aims to achieve price stability on a sustainable basis, given that there are various factors that affect prices in the short run.

The Bank recognizes that the inflation rate consistent with price stability on a sustainable basis will rise as efforts by a wide range of entities toward strengthening competitiveness and growth potential of Japan's economy make progress. Based on this recognition, the Bank sets the price stability target at 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index.

Under the price stability target specified above, the Bank will pursue monetary easing and aim to achieve this target at the earliest possible time. Taking into consideration that it will take considerable time before the effects of monetary policy permeate the economy, the Bank will ascertain whether there is any significant risk to the sustainability of economic growth, including from the accumulation of financial imbalances.”

The Bank of Japan also provided explicit analysis of its view on price stability in a “Background note regarding the Bank’s thinking on price stability” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/data/rel130123a1.pdf http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130123a.htm/). The Bank of Japan also amended “Principal terms and conditions for the Asset Purchase Program” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130122a.pdf): “Asset purchases and loan provision shall be conducted up to the maximum outstanding amounts by the end of 2013. From January 2014, the Bank shall purchase financial assets and provide loans every month, the amount of which shall be determined pursuant to the relevant rules of the Bank.”

Financial markets in Japan and worldwide were shocked by new bold measures of “quantitative and qualitative monetary easing” by the Bank of Japan (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The objective of policy is to “achieve the price stability target of 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) at the earliest possible time, with a time horizon of about two years” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The main elements of the new policy are as follows:

1. Monetary Base Control. Most central banks in the world pursue interest rates instead of monetary aggregates, injecting bank reserves to lower interest rates to desired levels. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has shifted back to monetary aggregates, conducting money market operations with the objective of increasing base money, or monetary liabilities of the government, at the annual rate of 60 to 70 trillion yen. The BOJ estimates base money outstanding at “138 trillion yen at end-2012) and plans to increase it to “200 trillion yen at end-2012 and 270 trillion yen at end 2014” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
2. Maturity Extension of Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds. Purchases of bonds will be extended even up to bonds with maturity of 40 years with the guideline of extending the average maturity of BOJ bond purchases from three to seven years. The BOJ estimates the current average maturity of Japanese government bonds (JGB) at around seven years. The BOJ plans to purchase about 7.5 trillion yen per month (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130404d.pdf). Takashi Nakamichi, Tatsuo Ito and Phred Dvorak, wiring on “Bank of Japan mounts bid for revival,” on Apr 4, 2013, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323646604578401633067110420.html), find that the limit of maturities of three years on purchases of JGBs was designed to avoid views that the BOJ would finance uncontrolled government deficits.
3. Seigniorage. The BOJ is pursuing coordination with the government that will take measures to establish “sustainable fiscal structure with a view to ensuring the credibility of fiscal management” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
4. Diversification of Asset Purchases. The BOJ will engage in transactions of exchange traded funds (ETF) and real estate investment trusts (REITS) and not solely on purchases of JGBs. Purchases of ETFs will be at an annual rate of increase of one trillion yen and purchases of REITS at 30 billion yen.
5. Bank Lending Facility and Growth Supporting Funding Facility. At the meeting on Feb 18, the Bank of Japan doubled the scale of these lending facilities to prevent their expiration in the near future (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140218a.pdf).

Table VB-BOJF, Bank of Japan, Forecasts of the Majority of Members of the Policy Board, % Year on Year

Fiscal Year Date of Forecast	Real GDP	CPI All Items Less Fresh Food	Excluding Effects of Consumption Tax Hikes
2013
Apr 2014	+2.2 to +2.3 [+2.2]	+0.8
Jan 2014	+2.5 to +2.9 [+2.7]	+0.7 to +0.9 [+0.7]
Oct 2013	+2.6 to +3.0 [+2.7]	+0.6 to +1.0 [+0.7]
Jul 2013	+2.5 to +3.0 [+2.8]	+0.5 to +0.8 [+0.6]
2014
Jul 2014	+0.6 to +1.3 [+1.0]	+3.2 to +3.5 [+3.3]	+1.2 to +1.5 [+1.3]
Apr 2014	+0.8 to +1.3 [+1.1]	+3.0 to +3.5 [+3.3]	+1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3]
Jan 2014	+0.9 to 1.5 [+1.4]	+2.9 to +3.6 [+3.3]	+0.9 to +1.6 [+1.3]
Oct 2013	+0.9 to +1.5 [+1.5]	+2.8 to +3.6 [+3.3]	+0.8 to +1.6 [+1.3]
Jul 2013	+0.8 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+2.7 to +3.6 [+3.3]	+0.7 to +1.6 [+1.3]
2015
Jul 2014	+1.2 to +1.6 [+1.5]	+1.9 to +2.8 [+2.6]	+1.2 to +2.1 [+1.9]
Apr 2014	+1.2 to +1.5 [+1.5]	+1.9 to +2.8 [+2.6]	+1.2 to +2.1 [+1.9]
Jan 2014	+1.2 to +1.8 [+1.5]	+1.7 to +2.9 [+2.6]	+1.0 to +2.2 [+1.9]
Oct 2013	+1.3 to +1.8 [+1.5]	+1.6 to +2.9 [+2.6]	+0.9 to +2.2 [+1.9]
Jul 2013	+1.3 to +1.9 [+1.5]	+1.6 to +2.9 [+2.6]	+0.9 to +2.2 [+1.9]
2016
Jul 2014	+1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+2.0 to +3.0 [+2.8]	+1.3 to +2.3 [+2.1]
Apr 2014	+1.0 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+2.0 to +3.0 [+2.8]	+1.3 to +2.3 [+2.1]

Figures in brackets are the median of forecasts of Policy Board members

Source: Policy Board, Bank of Japan

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140715a.pdf

The Markit/JMMA Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI Index™ with the Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI™ decreased from 52.2 in Aug to 51.7 in Sep and the Flash Japan Manufacturing Output Index™ increased from 52.9 in Aug to 53.4 in Sep (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/66003fb66ac14af29cf0b41d0e261693). New export orders increased at a slower pace. Amy Brownbill, Economist at Markit, finds improving Japan’s manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/66003fb66ac14af29cf0b41d0e261693). Private-sector activity in Japan improved marginally with the Markit Composite Output PMI Index increasing from 50.8 in Aug to 52.8 in Sep, indicating modest improvement (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/2e1dfffdc45c4e49be57a12b42bfc8d1). The Markit Business Activity Index of Services increased to 52.5 in Sep from 49.9 in Aug (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/2e1dfffdc45c4e49be57a12b42bfc8d1). Amy Brownbill, Ecoomist at Markit and author of the report, finds the reading consistent with growth in IIIQ2014 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/2e1dfffdc45c4e49be57a12b42bfc8d1). The Markit/JMMA Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI™), seasonally adjusted, decreased from 52.5 in Aug to 51.7 in Sep (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/ace36b2b67724577bcba4aff0291b168). New orders, output and foreign orders increased. Amy Brownbill, Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds higher growth of output (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/ace36b2b67724577bcba4aff0291b168).Table JPY provides the country data table for Japan.

Table JPY, Japan, Economic Indicators

Historical GDP and CPI	1981-2010 Real GDP Growth and CPI Inflation 1981-2010 Blog 8/9/11 Table 26
Corporate Goods Prices	Sep ∆% -0.1 12 months ∆% 3.5 Blog 10/19/14
Consumer Price Index	Aug NSA ∆% 0.2; Aug 12 months NSA ∆% 3.3 Blog 9/28/14
Real GDP Growth	IIQ2014 ∆%: -1.8 on IQ2014;  IIQ2014 SAAR -7.1; ∆% from quarter a year earlier: -0.1 % Blog 6/16/13 8/18/13 9/15/13 11/17/13 12/15/13 2/23/14 3/16/14 5/18/14 6/15/14 8/17/14 9/14/14
Employment Report	Aug Unemployed 2.31 million Change in unemployed since last year: minus 400 thousand Unemployment rate: 3.5 % Blog 10/5/14
All Industry Indices	Jul month SA ∆% -0.2 12-month NSA ∆% -1.5 Blog 9/21/14
Industrial Production	Aug SA month ∆%: -1.5 12-month NSA ∆% -2.9 Blog 10/5/14
Machine Orders	Total Aug ∆% -2.2 Private ∆%: -12.4 Aug ∆% Excluding Volatile Orders 4.7 Blog 10/12/14
Tertiary Index	Aug month SA ∆% -0.1 Aug 12 months NSA ∆% minus 2.7 Blog 10/12/14
Wholesale and Retail Sales	Aug 12 months: Total ∆%: -1.6 Wholesale ∆%: -2.8 Retail ∆%: 1.2 Blog 10/5/14
Family Income and Expenditure Survey	Aug 12-month ∆% total nominal consumption -0.9, real -4.7 Blog 10/5/14
Trade Balance	Exports Aug 12 months ∆%: minus 1.3 Imports Aug 12 months ∆% -1.5 Blog 9/21/14

Links to blog comments in Table JPY:

10/12/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/global-financial-volatility-recovery.html

10/5/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/world-financial-turbulence-twenty-seven.html

9/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html

9/21/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

9/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitics-monetary-policy-and.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

6/15/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financialgeopolitical-risks-recovery.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html

2/23/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html

12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

VC China. China estimates an index of nonmanufacturing purchasing managers based on a sample of 1200 nonmanufacturing enterprises across the country (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Table CIPMNM provides this index and components. The total index increased from 55.7 in Jan 2011 to 58.0 in Mar 2012, decreasing to 53.9 in Aug 2013. The index decreased from 56.0 in Nov 2013 to 54.6 in Dec 2013, easing to 53.4 in Jan 2014. The index moved to 54.0 in Sep 2014. The index of new orders increased from 52.2 in Jan 2012 to 54.3 in Dec 2012 but fell to 50.1 in May 2013, barely above the neutral frontier of 50.0. The index of new orders stabilized at 51.0 in Nov-Dec 2013, easing to 50.9 in Jan 2014. The index of new orders decreased to 49.5 in Sep 2014.

Table CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted

	Total Index	New Orders	Interm. Input Prices	Subs Prices	Exp
Sep 2014	54.0	49.5	49.8	47.3	60.9
Aug	54.4	50.0	52.2	48.3	61.2
Jul	54.2	50.7	53.4	49.5	61.5
Jun	55.0	50.7	56.0	50.8	60.4
May	55.5	52.7	54.5	49.0	60.7
Apr	54.8	50.8	52.4	49.4	61.5
Mar	54.5	50.8	52.8	49.5	61.5
Feb	55.0	51.4	52.1	49.0	59.9
Jan	53.4	50.9	54.5	50.1	58.1
Dec 2013	54.6	51.0	56.9	52.0	58.7
Nov	56.0	51.0	54.8	49.5	61.3
Oct	56.3	51.6	56.1	51.4	60.5
Sep	55.4	53.4	56.7	50.6	60.1
Aug	53.9	50.9	57.1	51.2	62.9
Jul	54.1	50.3	58.2	52.4	63.9
Jun	53.9	50.3	55.0	50.6	61.8
May	54.3	50.1	54.4	50.7	62.9
Apr	54.5	50.9	51.1	47.6	62.5
Mar	55.6	52.0	55.3	50.0	62.4
Feb	54.5	51.8	56.2	51.1	62.7
Jan	56.2	53.7	58.2	50.9	61.4
Dec 2012	56.1	54.3	53.8	50.0	64.6
Nov	55.6	53.2	52.5	48.4	64.6
Oct	55.5	51.6	58.1	50.5	63.4
Sep	53.7	51.8	57.5	51.3	60.9
Aug	56.3	52.7	57.6	51.2	63.2
Jul	55.6	53.2	49.7	48.7	63.9
Jun	56.7	53.7	52.1	48.6	65.5
May	55.2	52.5	53.6	48.5	65.4
Apr	56.1	52.7	57.9	50.3	66.1
Mar	58.0	53.5	60.2	52.0	66.6
Feb	57.3	52.7	59.0	51.2	63.8
Jan	55.7	52.2	58.2	51.1	65.3

Notes: Interm.: Intermediate; Subs: Subscription; Exp: Business Expectations

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart CIPMNM provides China’s nonmanufacturing purchasing managers’ index. The index fell from 56.1 in Dec 2012 to 53.9 in Jun 2013. The index recovered to 56.3 in Oct 2013, decreasing marginally to 54.6 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 53.4 in Jan 2014, easing to 54.0 in Sep 2014.

Chart CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Table CIPMMFG provides the index of purchasing managers of manufacturing seasonally adjusted of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The general index (IPM) rose from 50.5 in Jan 2012 to 53.3 in Apr 2012, falling to 49.2 in Aug 2012, rebounding to 50.6 in Dec 2012. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013, barely above the neutral frontier at 50.0, recovering to 51.4 in Nov 2013 but falling to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.5 in Jan 2014 and 51.1 in Aug-Sep 2014. The index of new orders fell from 54.5 in Apr 2012 to 51.2 in Dec 2012. The index of new orders fell from 52.3 in Nov 2013 to 52.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.9 in Jan 2014 and increased to 52.2 in Sep 2014.

Table CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted

	IPM	PI	NOI	INV	EMP	SDEL
Sep 2014	51.1	53.6	52.2	48.8	48.2	50.1
Aug	51.1	53.2	52.5	48.6	48.2	50.0
Jul	51.7	54.2	53.6	49.0	48.3	50.2
Jun	51.0	53.0	52.8	48.0	48.6	50.5
May	50.8	52.8	52.3	48.0	48.2	50.3
Apr	50.4	52.5	51.2	48.1	48.3	50.1
Mar	50.3	52.7	50.6	47.8	48.3	49.8
Feb	50.2	52.6	50.5	47.4	48.0	49.9
Jan	50.5	53.0	50.9	47.8	48.2	49.8
Dec 2013	51.0	53.9	52.0	47.6	48.7	50.5
Nov	51.4	54.5	52.3	47.8	49.6	50.6
Oct	51.4	54.4	52.5	48.6	49.2	50.8
Sep	51.1	52.9	52.8	48.5	49.1	50.8
Aug	51.0	52.6	52.4	48.0	49.3	50.4
Jul	50.3	52.4	50.6	47.6	49.1	50.1
Jun	50.1	52.0	50.4	47.4	48.7	50.3
May	50.8	53.3	51.8	47.6	48.8	50.8
Apr	50.6	52.6	51.7	47.5	49.0	50.8
Mar	50.9	52.7	52.3	47.5	49.8	51.1
Feb	50.1	51.2	50.1	49.5	47.6	48.3
Jan	50.4	51.3	51.6	50.1	47.8	50.0
Dec 2012	50.6	52.0	51.2	47.3	49.0	48.8
Nov	50.6	52.5	51.2	47.9	48.7	49.9
Oct	50.2	52.1	50.4	47.3	49.2	50.1
Sep	49.8	51.3	49.8	47.0	48.9	49.5
Aug	49.2	50.9	48.7	45.1	49.1	50.0
Jul	50.1	51.8	49.0	48.5	49.5	49.0
Jun	50.2	52.0	49.2	48.2	49.7	49.1
May	50.4	52.9	49.8	45.1	50.5	49.0
Apr	53.3	57.2	54.5	48.5	51.0	49.6
Mar	53.1	55.2	55.1	49.5	51.0	48.9
Feb	51.0	53.8	51.0	48.8	49.5	50.3
Jan	50.5	53.6	50.4	49.7	47.1	49.7

IPM: Index of Purchasing Managers; PI: Production Index; NOI: New Orders Index; EMP: Employed Person Index; SDEL: Supplier Delivery Time Index

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

China estimates the manufacturing index of purchasing managers on the basis of a sample of 820 enterprises (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Chart CIPMMFG provides the manufacturing index of purchasing managers. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013. The index decreased from 51.4 in Nov 2013 to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index moved to 51.1 in Aug-Sep 2014.

Chart CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Cumulative growth of China’s GDP in IIQ2014 relative to the same period in 2013 was 7.4 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDP. Secondary industry accounts for 46.0 percent of cumulative GDP in IIQ2014. In cumulative IIQ2014, industry alone accounts for 39.7 percent of GDP and construction with the remaining 6.3 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 46.6 percent of cumulative GDP in IIQ2014 and primary industry for 7.4 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is shifting to lower growth rates with improvement in living standards. The bottom block of Table VC-GDP provides quarter-on-quarter growth rates of GDP and their annual equivalent. China’s GDP growth decelerated significantly from annual equivalent 10.4 percent in IIQ2011 to 7.4 percent in IVQ2011 and 5.7 percent in IQ2012, rebounding to 8.7 percent in IIQ2012, 8.2 percent in IIIQ2012 and 7.8 percent in IVQ2012. Annual equivalent growth in IQ2013 fell to 6.6 percent and to 7.4 percent in IIQ2013, rebounding to 9.5 percent in IIIQ2013. Annual equivalent growth was 7.0 percent in IVQ2013, declining to 6.1 percent in IQ2014 and increasing to 8.2 percent in IIQ2014.

Table VC-GDP, China, Quarterly Growth of GDP, Current CNY 100 Million and Inflation Adjusted ∆%

Cumulative GDP IIQ2014	Value Current CNY Billion	2014 Year-on-Year Constant Prices ∆%
GDP	26,904.4	7.4
Primary Industry	1981.2	3.9
Farming	1981.2	3.9
Secondary Industry	12,387.1	7.4
Industry	10,681.4	7.2
Construction	1,705.7	9.2
Tertiary Industry	12,536.1	8.0
Transport, Storage, Post	1411.4	6.8
Wholesale, Retail Trades	2,542.2	9.8
Hotel & Catering Services	531.8	6.2
Financial Intermediation	1,846.3	9.7
Real Estate	1,745.3	2.5
Other	4,459.1	8.9
Growth in Quarter Relative to Prior Quarter	∆% on Prior Quarter	∆% Annual Equivalent
2014
IIQ2014	2.0	8.2
IQ2014	1.5	6.1
2013
IVQ2013	1.7	7.0
IIIQ2013	2.3	9.5
IIQ2013	1.8	7.4
IQ2013	1.6	6.6
2012
IVQ2012	1.9	7.8
IIIQ2012	2.0	8.2
IIQ2012	2.1	8.7
IQ2012	1.4	5.7
2011
IVQ2011	1.8	7.4
IIIQ2011	2.2	9.1
IIQ2011	2.5	10.4
IQ2011	2.3	9.5

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Growth of China’s GDP in IIQ2014 relative to the same period in 2013 was 7.5 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDPA. Secondary industry accounts for 46.0 percent of GDP of which industry alone for 39.7 percent in cumulative IIQ2014 and construction with the remaining 6.3 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 46.6 percent of GDP in cumulative IIQ2014 and primary industry for 7.4 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is changing to lower growth rates while improving living standards. GDP growth decelerated from 12.1 percent in IQ2010 and 11.2 percent in IIQ2010 to 7.7 percent in IQ2013, 7.5 percent in IIQ2013 and 7.8 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP grew 7.7 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 1.7 percent relative to IIIQ2013, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent per year. GDP grew 7.4 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.5 percent in IQ2014 that is equivalent to 6.1 percent per year. GP grew 7.5 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 2.0 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is equivalent 8.2 percent.

Table VC-GDPA, China, Growth Rate of GDP, ∆% Relative to a Year Earlier and ∆% Relative to Prior Quarter

	IQ 2013	IIQ 2013	IIIQ 2013	IVQ 2013	IQ 2014	IIQ 2014
GDP	7.7	7.5	7.8	7.7	7.4	7.5
Primary Industry	3.4	3.0	3.4	4.0	3.5	3.9
Secondary Industry	7.8	7.6	7.8	7.8	7.3	7.4
Tertiary Industry	8.3	8.3	8.4	8.3	7.1	8.0
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.6	1.8	2.3	1.7	1.5	2.0
	IQ 2011	IIQ 2011	IIIQ 2011	IVQ 2011	IQ  2012	IIQ 2012	IIIQ 2012	IVQ 2012
GDP	9.7	9.5	9.1	8.9	8.1	7.6	7.4	7.9
Primary Industry	3.5	3.2	3.8	4.5	3.8	4.3	4.2	4.5
Secondary Industry	11.1	11.0	10.8	10.6	9.1	8.3	8.1	8.1
Tertiary Industry	9.1	9.2	9.0	8.9	7.5	7.7	7.9	8.1
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	2.3	2.5	2.2	1.8	1.4	2.1	2.0	1.9
	IQ 2010	IIQ 2010	IIIQ 2010	IVQ 2010
GDP	12.1	11.2	10.7	12.1
Primary Industry	3.8	3.6	4.0	3.8
Secondary Industry	14.5	13.3	12.6	14.5
Tertiary Industry	10.5	9.9	9.7	10.5

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart VC-GDP of the National Bureau of Statistics of China provides annual value and growth rates of GDP. China’s GDP growth in 2013 is still high at 7.7 percent but at the lowest rhythm in five years.

Chart VC-GDP, China, Gross Domestic Product, Million Yuan and ∆%, 2009-2013

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart VC-FXR provides China’s foreign exchange reserves. FX reserves grew from $2399.2 billion in 2009 to $3821.3 billion in 2013 driven by high growth of China’s trade surplus.

Chart VC-FXR, China, Foreign Exchange Reserves, 2009-2013

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Chart VC-Trade provides China’s imports and exports. Exports exceeded imports with resulting large trade balance surpluses that increased foreign exchange reserves.

Chart VC-Trade, China, Imports and Exports of Goods, 2009-2013, $100 Million US Dollars

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) compiled by Markit (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/475569173cdf44218eece6ff633543e6) is improving. The overall Flash HSBC China Manufacturing PMI^™ increased from 50.2 in Aug to 50.5 in Sep, while the Flash HSBC China Manufacturing Output Index was unchanged from 51.8 in Aug to 51.8 in Sep, indicating moderate expansion. Exports orders indicate expansion at faster rate. Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds need for monetary stimulus (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/475569173cdf44218eece6ff633543e6). The HSBC China Services PMI^™, compiled by Markit, shows improvement in business activity in China with the HSBC Composite Output, combining manufacturing and services, decreasing from 52.8 in Aug to 52.3 in Sep (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8614cb018b204bbd995dd9dff5830c43). Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds need of easing policies in consolidating growth (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8614cb018b204bbd995dd9dff5830c43). The HSBC China Services Business Activity index decreased from 54.1 in Aug to 53.5 in Sep (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8614cb018b204bbd995dd9dff5830c43). Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds that the services PMI shows sustained activity (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8614cb018b204bbd995dd9dff5830c43). The HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™), compiled by Markit, did not change to 50.2 in Sep from 50.2 in Aug, indicating near neutral manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d578e13981d44eb69ce706c58ff2e6e5). New export orders strengthened. Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds weakening demand in China with possible need of monetary and fiscal policy enhancement (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d578e13981d44eb69ce706c58ff2e6e5). Table CNY provides the country data table for China.

Table CNY, China, Economic Indicators

Price Indexes for Industry	Sep 12-month ∆%: minus 1.8 Aug month ∆%: -0.4 Blog 10/19/14
Consumer Price Index	Sep month ∆%: 0.5 Sep 12 months ∆%: 1.6 Blog 10/19/14
Value Added of Industry	Aug month ∆%: 0.20 Jan-Aug 2014/Jan-Aug 2013 ∆%: 8.5 Blog 9/21/14
GDP Growth Rate	Year IIQ2014 ∆%: 7.5 First Half 2014 ∆%: 7.4 Quarter IIQ2014 AE ∆%: 8.2 Blog 7/20/14
Investment in Fixed Assets	Total Jan-Aug 2014 ∆%: 16.5 Real estate development: 13.2 Blog 9/21/14
Retail Sales	Aug month ∆%: 0.92 Aug 12 month ∆%: 11.9 Jan-Aug ∆%: 12.1 Blog 9/21/14
Trade Balance	Sep balance $31.0 billion Exports 12M ∆% 15.3 Imports 12M ∆% -7.0 Cumulative Jan-Sep: $200.0 billion Blog 10/19/14

Links to blog comments in Table CNY:

9/21/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

9/14/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitics-monetary-policy-and.html

7/20/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/financial-irrational-exuberance.html

Table VC-1 provides China’s exports, imports, trade balance and 12-month percentage changes from Dec 2010 to Sep 2014. The trade surplus of China in Sep 2014 was $31.0 billion with exports growing 15.3 percent relative to a year earlier and imports increasing 7.0 percent. China’s trade surplus rose to $49.8 billion in Aug 2014 with 12-month growth of exports of 9.4 percent and decline of 2.4 percent of imports in 12 months. The trade surplus of China jumped to $47.3 billion in Jul 2014 with growth of exports by 14.5 percent and decrease of imports by 1.6 percent. China’s trade surplus decreased to $31.6 billion in Jun 2014 with growth of exports of 7.2 percent and of 5.5 percent of imports. The trade surplus of China increased to $35.92 billion in May 2014 with growth of exports of 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier and decline of imports by 1.6 percent. The trade surplus of China increased to $18.45 billion in Apr 2014 with growth of exports of 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier and of imports of 0.8 percent. China had a trade surplus of $7.71 billion in Mar 2014 with exports declining 6.6 percent in 12 months and imports decreasing 11.3 percent. China had a rare trade deficit of $22.99 billion in Feb 2014 with exports decreasing 18.1 percent in 12 months while imports increased 10.1 percent. Exports increased 10.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2014 and imports 10.0 percent for trade surplus of $31.87 billion. Exports increased 4.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013 while imports increased 8.3 percent for trade surplus of $25.64 billion. Exports surged 12.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2013 while imports increased 5.3 percent for trade surplus of $33.8 billion. Exports rebounded with growth of 5.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2013 while imports increased 7.6 percent for trade surplus of $31.11 billion. Exports fell 0.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2013 while imports increased 7.4 for reduction of the trade surplus to $15.2 billion. Markets reacted positively to China’s trade data in Aug 2013 with exports growing 7.2 percent relative to a year earlier and imports 7.0 percent for increasing trade surplus of $28.52. Exports increased 5.1 in Jul 2013 and imports 10.9 percent for trade surplus of $17.82 billion. Exports fell 3.1 percent in Jun 2013 and imports declined 0.7 percent. The trade surplus reached $27.12 billion. Exports increased 1.0 percent in May 2013 relative to a year earlier while imports fell 0.3 percent with trade surplus of $20.43 billion. Exports increased 14.7 percent in Apr 2013 relative to a year earlier and imports 16.8 percent for trade surplus of $18.16 billion. Exports increased 10.0 percent in Mar 2013 relative to a year earlier and imports increased 14.1 percent for trade deficit of $0.88 billion. Exports increased 21.8 percent in Feb 2013 relative to a year earlier and imports fell 15.2 percent for trade surplus of $15.25 billion. China’s trade growth was stronger in Jan 2013 with growth of exports of 25.0 percent in 12 months and of imports of 28.8 percent for trade surplus of $29.15 billion. China’s trade growth strengthened in Dec 2012 with growth in 12 months of exports of 14.1 percent and of imports of 6.0 percent. China’s trade growth weakened again in Nov 2012 with growth of exports of 2.9 percent and no change in imports. China’s trade growth rebounded with growth of exports in 12 months of 11.6 percent in Oct 2012 and 9.9 percent in Sep 2012 after 2.7 percent in Aug 2012 and 1.0 percent in Jul 2012 while imports grew 2.4 percent in both Sep and Oct 2012, stagnating in Nov 2012. As a result, the monthly trade surplus increased from $25.2 billion in Jul 2012 to $31.9 billion in Oct 2012, declining to $19.6 billion in Nov 2012 but increasing to $31.62 billion in Dec 2012. China’s trade growth rebounded in Oct 2012 with growth of exports of 11.6 percent in 12 months and 2.4 percent for imports and trade surplus of $31.9 billion. The number that caught attention in financial markets was growth of 1.0 percent in exports in the 12 months ending in Jul 2012. Imports were also weak, growing 4.7 percent in 12 months ending in Jul 2012. Exports increased 11.3 percent in Jun 2012 relative to a year earlier while imports grew 6.3 percent. The rate of growth of exports fell to 4.9 percent in Apr 2012 relative to a year earlier and imports increased 0.3 percent but export growth was 15.3 percent in May and imports increased 12.7 percent. China reversed the large trade deficit of USD 31.48 billion in Feb 2012 with a surplus of $5.35 billion in Mar 2012, $18.42 billion in Apr 2012, $18.7 billion in May 2012, $31.7 billion in Jun 2012, $25.2 billion in Jul 2012, $26.7 billion in Aug 2012, $27.7 billion in Sep 2012, $31.9 billion in Oct 2012 and $19.6 billion in Nov 2012. Exports fell 0.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2012 while imports fell 15.3 percent for a still sizeable trade surplus of $27.3 billion. In Feb 2012, exports increased 18.4 percent while imports jumped 39.6 percent for a sizeable deficit of $31.48 billion. There are distortions from the Lunar New Year holidays.

Table VC-1, China, Exports, Imports and Trade Balance USD Billion and ∆%

	Exports USD Billion	∆% Relative Year Earlier	Imports USD Billion	∆% Relative Year Earlier	Balance USD Billion
Sep 2014	213.7	15.3	182.7	7.0	31.0
Aug	208.5	9.4	158.6	-2.4	49.8
Jul	212.9	14.5	165.6	-1.6	47.3
Jun	186.8	7.2	155.2	5.5	31.6
May	195.47	7.0	159.55	-1.6	35.92
Apr	188.54	0.9	170.09	0.8	18.45
Mar	170.11	-6.6	162.40	-11.3	7.71
Feb	114.09	-18.1	137.08	10.1	-22.99
Jan	207.13	10.6	175.26	10.0	31.87
Dec 2013	207.74	4.3	182.10	8.3	25.64
Nov	202.20	12.7	168.40	5.3	33.8
Oct	185.41	5.6	154.30	7.6	31.11
Sep	185.64	-0.3	170.44	7.4	15.21
Aug	190.61	7.2	162.09	7.0	28.52
Jul	185.99	5.1	168.17	10.9	17.82
Jun	174.32	-3.1	147.19	-0.7	27.12
May	182.77	1.0	162.34	-0.3	20.43
Apr	187.06	14.7	168.90	16.8	18.16
Mar	182.19	10.0	183.07	14.1	-0.88
Feb	139.37	21.8	124.12	-15.2	15.25
Jan	187.37	25.0	158.22	28.8	29.15
Dec 2012	199.23	14.1	167.61	6.0	31.62
Nov	179.38	2.9	159.75	0.0	19.63
Oct	175.57	11.6	143.58	2.4	31.99
Sep	186.35	9.9	158.68	2.4	27.67
Aug	177.97	2.7	151.31	-2.6	26.66
Jul	176.94	1.0	151.79	4.7	25.15
Jun	180.20	11.3	148.48	6.3	31.72
May	181.14	15.3	162.44	12.7	18.70
Apr	163.25	4.9	144.83	0.3	18.42
Mar	165.66	8.9	160.31	5.3	5.35
Feb	114.47	18.4	145.95	39.6	-31.48
Jan	149.94	-0.5	122.66	-15.3	27.28
Dec 2011	174.72	13.4	158.20	11.8	16.52
Nov	174.46	13.8	159.94	22.1	14.53
Oct	157.49	15.9	140.46	28.7	17.03
Sep	169.67	17.1	155.16	20.9	14.51
Aug	173.32	24.5	155.56	30.2	17.76
Jul	175.13	20.4	143.64	22.9	31.48
Jun	161.98	17.9	139.71	19.3	22.27
May	157.16	19.4	144.11	28.4	13.05
Apr	155.69	29.9	144.26	21.8	11.42
Mar	152.20	35.8	152.06	27.3	0.14
Feb	96.74	2.4	104.04	19.4	-7.31
Jan	150.73	37.7	144.27	51.0	6.46
Dec 2010	154.15	17.9	141.07	25.6	13.08

Source: Ministry of Commerce, People’s Republic of China

http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/article/statistic/BriefStatistics/

Table VC-2 provides cumulative exports, imports and the trade balance of China together with percentage growth of exports and imports relative to a year earlier. Exports increased 5.1 percent cumulatively in Jan-Sep 2014 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 1.3 percent for cumulative trade surplus of $231.6 billion. Exports grew 3.8 percent cumulatively in Jan-Aug 2014 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 1.6 percent for cumulative surplus of $200 billion. Exports increased 2.9 percent in the cumulative Jan-July 2014 relative to a year earlier and imports 1.1 percent for cumulative surplus of $150.6 billion. Exports increased 0.9 percent in Jan-Jun 2014 relative to a year earlier and imports increased 1.5 percent for cumulative surplus of $102.7 billion. Exports fell 0.4 percent in Jan-May 2014 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 0.8 percent for cumulative surplus of $71.11 billion. Exports fell 2.3 percent in Jan-Apr 2014 relative to the same period a year earlier and imports increased 1.5 percent for cumulative trade surplus of $35.19 billion.

Exports fell 3.4 percent in Jan-Mar 2014 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 1.6 percent for cumulative surplus of $16.74 billion. Exports fell 1.6 percent and imports increased 10.0 percent for cumulative surplus of $8.88 billion in Jan-Feb 2014. Exports increased 10.6 percent in Jan 2014 and imports 10.0 percent for cumulative surplus of $31.87 billion. Exports increased 7.9 percent in Jan-Dec 2013 relative to the same period a year earlier while imports increased 7.3 percent for cumulative surplus of $259.75 billion. Exports grew 8.3 percent in Jan-Nov 2013 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 7.1 percent for cumulative surplus of $234.15 billion. Exports grew 7.8 percent in Jan-Oct 2013 relative to a year earlier while imports grew 7.3 percent for cumulative trade surplus of $200.46 billion. Exports increased 8.0 percent in Jan-Sep 2013 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 7.3 percent for cumulative surplus of $169.36 billion. Exports increased 9.2 percent in in Jan-Aug 2013 relative to a year earlier and imports 7.3 percent for trade surplus of $154.21 billion. Exports grew 9.5 percent in Jul 2013 relative to a year earlier and imports 7.3 percent with cumulative surplus of $125.71 billion. Exports increased 10.4 percent cumulatively in Jun 2013 and imports 6.7 for cumulative surplus of $107.95 billion. Exports increased 13.5 percent in Jan-May 2013 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 8.2 percent for cumulative surplus of $80.87 billion. Exports increased 17.4 percent in Jan-Apr 2012 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 10.6 percent for cumulative surplus of $60.98 billion. Exports increased 18.4 percent in Jan-Mar 2013 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 8.4 percent for cumulative surplus of $43.07 billion. Cumulative exports in Jan-Feb 2013 grew 23.6 percent relative to a year earlier and imports 5.0 percent for trade surplus of $44.15 billion. There is strong beginning of 2013 with trade surplus of $29.15 in Jan 2013 and growth of exports of 25.0 percent and imports of 28.8 percent. The trade balance of $231.1 billion in 2012 is stronger than the trade balance of $155.14 billion in 2011. The trade balance in 2011 of $155.14 billion is lower than those from 2008 to 2010. China’s trade balance reached $231.1 billion in Jan-Dec 2012 with cumulative growth of exports of 7.9 percent and 4.3 percent of imports, which is much lower than 20.3 percent for exports and 24.9 percent for imports in 2011 and 31.3 percent for exports and 38.7 percent for imports in 2010. There is a rare cumulative deficit of $4.2 billion in Feb 2012 reversed to a small surplus in Mar 2012 and a higher surplus of $19.3 billion in Apr 2012, increasing to $37.9 billion in May, $68.9 billion in Jun 2012, $94.1 billion in Jul 2012, $120.6 billion in Aug 2012, $148.3 billion in Sep 2012, $180.24 billion in Oct 2012, $199.54 billion in Nov 2012 and $231.1 billion in Dec 2012. More observations are required to detect trends of Chinese trade.

Table VC-2, China, Year to Date Exports, Imports and Trade Balance USD Billion and ∆%

	Exports USD Billion	∆% Relative Year Earlier	Imports USD Billion	∆% Relative Year Earlier	Balance USD Billion
Sep 2014	1697.2	5.1	1466.3	1.3	231.6
Aug	1483.5	3.8	1283.6	0.6	200.0
Jul	1275.0	2.9	1125.0	1.1	150.6
Jun	1062.1	0.9	959.4	1.5	102.7
May	875.32	-0.4	804.21	0.8	71.11
Apr	679.85	-2.3	644.66	1.5	35.19
Mar	491.31	-3.4	474.57	1.6	16.74
Feb	321.23	-1.6	312.35	10.0	8.88
Jan	207.13	10.6	175.26	10.0	31.87
Dec 2013	2210.04	7.9	1950.29	7.3	259.75
Nov	2002.32	8.3	1768.17	7.1	234.15
Oct	1800.21	7.8	1599.75	7.3	200.46
Sep	1614.86	8.0	1445.50	7.3	169.36
Aug	1429.26	9.2	1275.05	7.3	154.21
Jul	1238.73	9.5	1113.02	7.3	125.71
Jun	1052.82	10.4	944.87	6.7	107.95
May	878.56	13.5	797.69	8.2	80.87
Apr	695.87	17.4	634.88	10.6	60.98
Mar	508.87	18.4	465.80	8.4	43.07
Feb	326.73	23.6	282.58	5.0	44.15
Jan	187.37	25.0	158.22	28.8	29.15
Dec 2012	2048.93	7.9	1817.83	4.3	231.11
Nov	1849.91	7.3	1650.37	4.1	199.54
Oct	1670.90	7.8	1490.67	4.6	180.24
Sep	1495.39	7.4	1347.08	4.8	148.31
Aug	1309.11	7.1	1188.51	5.1	120.61
Jul	1131.24	7.8	1037.14	6.4	94.10
Jun	954.38	9.2	885.46	6.7	68.91
May	774.40	8.7	736.49	6.7	37.92
Apr	593.24	6.9	573.94	5.1	19.3
Mar	430.02	7.6	429.36	6.6	0.66
Feb	264.40	6.9	268.64	7.7	-4.24
Jan	149.94	-0.5	122.66	-15.3	27.28
Dec 2011	1,898.60	20.3	1,743.46	24.9	155.14
Nov	1,724.01	21.1	1585.61	26.4	138.40
Oct	1,549.71	22.0	1,425.68	26.9	124.03
Sep	1,392.27	22.7	1,285.17	26.7	107.10
Aug	1,222.63	23.6	1,129.90	27.5	92.73
Jul	1,049.38	23.4	973.17	26.9	76.21
Jun	874.3	24.0	829.37	27.6	44.93
May	712.37	25.5	689.41	29.4	22.96
Apr	555.30	27.4	545.02	29.6	10.28
Mar	399.64	26.5	400.66	32.6	-1.02
Feb	247.47	21.3	248.36	36.0	-0.89
Jan	150.7	37.7	144.27	51.0	6.46
Dec 2010	1577.93	31.3	1394.83	38.7	183.10

Source: Ministry of Commerce, People’s Republic of China

http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/article/statistic/BriefStatistics/

Table VD-1, Euro Zone, Industrial Production Month ∆%

	Total	INT	ENE	CG	DUR	NDUR
Aug	-1.8	-0.7	-1.2	-4.8	0.2	-0.2
Jul	0.9	1.0	-1.4	2.5	-1.0	0.8
Jun	-0.3	0.2	-1.1	0.1	2.1	-2.2
May	-1.1	-2.0	3.1	-0.9	-2.2	-1.7
Apr	1.1	0.9	1.1	0.5	-0.3	3.4
Mar	-0.4	-0.7	0.6	-0.7	0.0	-0.8

Notes: INT: Intermediate; ENE: Energy; CG: Capital Goods; DUR: Durable Consumer Goods; NDUR: Nondurable Consumer Goods

Source: EUROSTAT

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database

VD Euro Area. Table VD-EUR provides yearly growth rates of the combined GDP of the members of the European Monetary Union (EMU) or euro area since 1996. Growth was very strong at 3.3 percent in 2006 and 3.0 percent in 2007. The global recession had strong impact with growth of only 0.4 percent in 2008 and decline of 4.4 percent in 2009. Recovery was at lower growth rates of 2.0 percent in 2010 and 1.6 percent in 2011. EUROSTAT estimates growth of GDP of the euro area of minus 0.7 percent in 2012 and minus 0.4 percent in 2013 but 1.1 percent in 2014 and 1.7 percent in 2015.

Table VD-EUR, Euro Area, Yearly Percentage Change of Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, Unemployment and GDP ∆%

Year	HICP ∆%	Unemployment %	GDP ∆%
1999	1.2	9.6	2.9
2000	2.2	8.8	3.8
2001	2.4	8.2	2.0
2002	2.3	8.5	0.9
2003	2.1	9.0	0.7
2004	2.2	9.2	2.2
2005	2.2	9.1	1.7
2006	2.2	8.4	3.3
2007	2.2	7.5	3.0
2008	3.3	7.6	0.4
2009	0.3	9.6	-4.5
2010	1.6	10.1	1.9
2011	2.7	10.1	1.6
2012	2.5	11.3	-0.7
2013*	1.3	12.0	-0.4
2014*			1.1
2015*			1.7

*EUROSTAT forecast Source: EUROSTAT

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database

The GDP of the euro area in 2012 in current US dollars in the dataset of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is $12,199.1 billion or 16.9 percent of world GDP of $72,216.4 billion (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/02/weodata/index.aspx). The sum of the GDP of France $2613.9 billion with the GDP of Germany of $3429.5 billion, Italy of $2014.1 billion and Spain $1323.5 billion is $9381.0 billion or 76.9 percent of total euro area GDP and 13.0 percent of World GDP. The four largest economies account for slightly more than three quarters of economic activity of the euro area. Table VD-EUR1 is constructed with the dataset of EUROSTAT, providing growth rates of the euro area as a whole and of the largest four economies of Germany, France, Italy and Spain annually from 1996 to 2011 with the estimate of 2012 and forecasts for 2013, 2014 and 2015 by EUROSTAT. The impact of the global recession on the overall euro area economy and on the four largest economies was quite strong. There was sharp contraction in 2009 and growth rates have not rebounded to earlier growth with exception of Germany in 2010 and 2011.

Table VD-EUR1, Euro Area, Real GDP Growth Rate, ∆%

	Euro Area	Germany	France	Italy	Spain
2015*	1.7	1.9	1.7	1.2	1.7
2014*	1.1	1.7	0.9	0.7	0.5
2013*	-0.4	0.4	0.2	-1.9	-1.2
2012	-0.7	0.7	0.0	-2.4	-1.6
2011	1.6	3.3	2.0	0.4	0.1
2010	1.9	4.0	1.7	1.7	-0.2
2009	-4.5	-5.1	-3.1	-5.5	-3.8
2008	0.4	1.1	-0.1	-1.2	0.9
2007	3.0	3.3	2.3	1.7	3.5
2006	3.3	3.7	2.5	2.2	4.1
2005	1.7	0.7	1.8	0.9	3.6
2004	2.2	1.2	2.5	1.7	3.3
2003	0.7	-0.4	0.9	0.0	3.1
2002	0.9	0.0	0.9	0.5	2.7
2001	2.0	1.5	1.8	1.9	3.7
2000	3.8	3.1	3.7	3.7	5.0
1999	2.9	1.9	3.3	1.5	4.7
1998	2.8	1.9	3.4	1.4	4.5
1997	2.6	1.7	2.2	1.9	3.9
1996	1.5	0.8	1.1	1.1	2.5

Source: EUROSTAT

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database

The Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index of the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI^®, combining activity in manufacturing and services, decreased from 52.5 in Aug to 52.3 in Sep (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/524d4c76efc84dafaea3ce99e2662e3f). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds that the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI index suggests that the index is consistent with growth of GDP about 0.3 percent in IIIQ2014 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/524d4c76efc84dafaea3ce99e2662e3f). The Markit Eurozone PMI^® Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing activity with close association with GDP decreased from 52.5 in Aug to 52.0 in Sep (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/01d8b102223d449881e2878c1544c892). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds slowing growth of GDP at 0.2 to 0.3 percent in IIIQ2014 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/01d8b102223d449881e2878c1544c892). The Markit Eurozone Services Business Activity Index decreased from 53.1 in Aug to 52.4 in Sep (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/01d8b102223d449881e2878c1544c892). The Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI^® decreased to 50.3 in Sep from 50.5 in Aug (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/81a993f313ab4bdfbbd1bff81aa7dcea). New export orders increased for the fifteenth consecutive month. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds slowing industrial growth in the euro area (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/81a993f313ab4bdfbbd1bff81aa7dcea). Table EUR provides the data table for the euro area.

Table EUR, Euro Area Economic Indicators

GDP	IIQ2014 ∆% 0.0; IIQ2014/IIQ2013 ∆% 0.7 Blog 9/7/14
Unemployment	Aug 2014: 11.5 % unemployment rate; Aug 2014: 18.326 million unemployed Blog 10/5/14
HICP	Sep month ∆%: 0.4 12 months Sep ∆%: 0.3 Blog 10/19/14
Producer Prices	Euro Zone industrial producer prices Aug ∆%: -0.1 Aug 12-month ∆%: -1.4 Blog 10/5/14
Industrial Production	Aug month ∆%: -1.8; Aug 12 months ∆%: -1.9 Blog 10/19/14
Retail Sales	Aug month ∆%: 1.2 Aug 12 months ∆%: 1.9 Blog 10/12/14
Confidence and Economic Sentiment Indicator	Sentiment 99.9 Sep 2014 Consumer minus 11.4 Sep 2014 Blog 10/5/14
Trade	Jan-Aug 2014/Jan-Aug 2013 Exports ∆%: 0.8 Imports ∆%: -0.2 Aug 2014 12-month Exports ∆% -2.8 Imports ∆% -4.4 Blog 10/19/14

Links to blog comments in Table EUR:

10/12/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/global-financial-volatility-recovery.html

10/5/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/world-financial-turbulence-twenty-seven.html

9/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/competitive-monetary-policy-and.html

Table VD-1 provides monthly industrial production percentage changes for total production and major segments in the euro area. Total production decreased 1.8 percent in Aug 2014 with increase of 0.2 percent in durable goods and decrease of 1.3 percent in energy. Capital goods decrease 4.8 percent. Nondurable goods decreased 0.2 percent and intermediate goods decreased 0.7 percent. Industrial production increased in all months from Dec 2012 to Jun 2013 with exception of declines of 1.1 percent in May 2013 and 0.4 percent in Mar 2013. Industrial production changed 0.0 percent in Feb 2014, increasing 1.1 percent in Apr 2014.

Table VD-1, Euro Zone, Industrial Production Month ∆%

	Total	INT	ENE	CG	DUR	NDUR
Aug	-1.8	-0.7	-1.2	-4.8	0.2	-0.2
Jul	0.9	1.0	-1.4	2.5	-1.0	0.8
Jun	-0.3	0.2	-1.1	0.1	2.1	-2.2
May	-1.1	-2.0	3.1	-0.9	-2.2	-1.7
Apr	1.1	0.9	1.1	0.5	-0.3	3.4
Mar	-0.4	-0.7	0.6	-0.7	0.0	-0.8

Notes: INT: Intermediate; ENE: Energy; CG: Capital Goods; DUR: Durable Consumer Goods; NDUR: Nondurable Consumer Goods

Source: EUROSTAT

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database

Table VD-2 provides monthly and 12-month percentage changes of industrial production and major industrial categories in the euro zone. Most 12-month percentage changes in Table VD-6 are negative in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014 with exception of increase of 1.4 percent in nondurable consumer goods. Industrial production decreased 1.8 percent in the month of Aug 2014 and decreased 1.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014.

Table VD-2, Euro Zone, Industrial Production, Month and 12-Month ∆%

2014	Aug Month ∆%	Aug 12-Month ∆%
Total	-1.8	-1.9
Intermediate Goods	-0.7	-1.1
Energy	-1.2	-3.5
Capital Goods	-4.8	-3.7
Durable Consumer Goods	0.2	-2.9
Nondurable Consumer Goods	-0.2	1.4

Source: EUROSTAT

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database

There has been significant decline in percentage changes of industrial production and major categories in 12-month rates into 2012 and 2013 with recovery in 2014, as shown in Table VD-3. Negative percentage changes moderated from the high rates in Oct-Nov 2012 with return to growth. All 12-month percentage changes are negative for the various segments of euro area industrial production from May to Aug 2013 with exception of capital goods in Jun but there is improvement in Sep to Dec 2013 and Jan 2014 with positive 12-month percentage changes for total industry. There is significant improvement in 2014 with growth of 1.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb with deterioration to 0.3 percent in Mar 2014 and rebound of 1.9 percent in Apr 2014. The growth rate of industrial production in 12 months slowed to 0.7 percent in May 2014 and 0.3 percent in Jun 2014. Industrial production increased 1.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2014 and fell 1.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014. Output of capital goods increased 2.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2014 but only 1.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014, increasing to 1.4 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2014. Output of capital goods grew 0.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2014 and increased 3.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2014. Output of capital goods fell 3.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014. Output of intermediate goods increased 3.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014, 0.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2014 and 1.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2014. Output of intermediate goods fell 1.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014.

Table VD-3, Euro Zone, Industrial Production 12-Month ∆%

	Total	INT	ENE	CG	DUR	NDUR
Aug 2014	-1.9	-1.1	-3.5	-3.7	-2.9	1.4
Jul	1.6	1.4	-5.0	3.9	-1.6	2.6
Jun	0.3	0.4	-3.8	0.3	-1.5	2.4
May	0.7	0.4	-3.3	1.4	-1.2	3.1
Apr	1.9	3.6	-7.9	1.2	0.2	7.0
Mar	0.3	2.6	-12.2	2.8	-1.0	2.7

Notes: INT: Intermediate; ENE: Energy; CG: Capital Goods; DUR: Durable Consumer Goods; NDUR: Nondurable Consumer Goods

Source: EUROSTAT

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database

Growth of euro zone trade continues to be relatively resilient as shown in Table VD-4 but with deceleration at the margin. Exports grew 0.8 percent and imports decreased 0.2 percent in Jan-Aug 2014 relative to Jan-Aug 2013. The 12-month rate of growth of exports was minus 2.8 percent in Aug 2014 while imports decreased 4.4 percent. In Jul 2014, exports increased 2.9 percent in 12 months and imports increased 0.9 percent. At the margin, rates of growth of trade are declining in part because of moderation of commodity prices.

Table VD-4, Euro Zone, Exports, Imports and Trade Balance, Billions of Euros and Percent, NSA

	Exports	Imports
Jan-Aug 2014	1,262.3	1,153.7
Jan-Aug 2013	1,252.7	1,156.2
∆%	0.8	-0.2
Aug 2014	140.5	131.3
Aug 2013	144.6	137.3
∆%	-2.8%	-4.4
Jul 2014	172.9	151.4
Jul 2013	168.0	150.1
∆%	2.9	0.9
Trade Balance	Jan-Aug 2014	Jan-Aug2013
€ Billions	96.5	108.6

Source: EUROSTAT

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database

The structure of trade of the euro zone in Jul 2014 is provided in Table VD-5. Data are still not available for trade structure for Aug 2014. Manufactured exports increased 2.4 percent in Jan-Jul 2014 relative to Jan-Jul 2013 while imports increased 4.4 percent. The trade surplus in manufactured products was higher than the trade deficit in primary products in Jan-Jul 2014 but by more than in Jan-Jul 2013 partly because of the commodity shock caused by carry trades.

Table VD-5, Euro Zone, Structure of Exports, Imports and Trade Balance, € Billions, NSA, ∆%

	Primary	Manufactured	Other	Total
Exports
Jan-Jul 2014 € B	173.2	919.1	29.5	1121.8
Jan-Jul 2013 € B	178.0	897.9	32.2	1108.1
∆%	-2.7	2.4	-8.4	1.2
Imports
Jan-Jul 2014 € B	346.5	657.5	18.4	1022.5
Jan-Jul 2013  € B	369.4	629.7	19.7	1018.9
∆%	-6.2	4.4	-6.6	0.4
Trade Balance € B
Jan-Jul 2014	-173.3	261.6	11.1	99.4
Jan-Jul 2013	-191.5	268.2	12.5	89.2

Note: there are minor rounding errors

Source: EUROSTAT

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database

VE Germany. Table VE-DE provides yearly growth rates of the German economy from 1971 to 2013, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked. Germany’s GDP fell 5.6 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.1 percent in 2008. Recovery has been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.1 percent in 2010, 3.6 percent in 2011 and 0.4 percent in 2012. Growth decelerated to 0.1 percent in 2013.

The Federal Statistical Agency of Germany analyzes the fall and recovery of the German economy (http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Content/Statistics/VolkswirtschaftlicheGesamtrechnungen/Inlandsprodukt/Aktuell,templateId=renderPrint.psml):

“The German economy again grew strongly in 2011. The price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.0% compared with the previous year. Accordingly, the catching-up process of the German economy continued during the second year after the economic crisis. In the course of 2011, the price-adjusted GDP again exceeded its pre-crisis level. The economic recovery occurred mainly in the first half of 2011. In 2009, Germany experienced the most serious post-war recession, when GDP suffered a historic decline of 5.1%. The year 2010 was characterised by a rapid economic recovery (+3.7%).”

Table VE-4 provides annual growth rates of the German economy from 1970 to 2013, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked. Germany’s GDP fell 5.6 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.1 percent in 2008. Recovery has been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.1 percent in 2010, 3.6 percent in 2011 and 0.4 percent in 2012. Growth in 2013 was 0.1 percent.

Table VE-DE, Germany, GDP ∆% on Prior Year

	Price Adjusted Chain-Linked	Price- and Calendar-Adjusted Chain Linked
Average ∆% 1991-2013	1.3
Average ∆% 1991-1999	1.5
Average ∆% 2000-2007	1.4
Average ∆% 2003-2007	2.2
Average ∆% 2007-2013	0.5
Average ∆% 2009-2013	2.0
2013	0.1	0.2
2012	0.4	0.6
2011	3.6	3.7
2010	4.1	3.9
2009	-5.6	-5.6
2008	1.1	0.8
2007	3.3	3.4
2006	3.7	3.9
2005	0.7	0.9
2004	1.2	0.7
2003	-0.7	-0.7
2002	0.0	0.0
2001	1.7	1.8
2000	3.0	3.2
1999	2.0	1.9
1998	2.0	1.7
1997	1.8	1.9
1996	0.8	0.8
1995	1.7	1.8
1994	2.5	2.5
1993	-1.0	-1.0
1992	1.9	1.5
1991	5.1	5.2
1990	5.3	5.5
1989	3.9	4.0
1988	3.7	3.4
1987	1.4	1.3
1986	2.3	2.3
1985	2.3	2.3
1984	2.8	2.9
1983	1.6	1.5
1982	-0.4	-0.5
1981	0.5	0.6
1980	1.4	1.3
1979	4.2	4.3
1978	3.0	3.1
1977	3.3	3.5
1976	4.9	4.5
1975	-0.9	-0.9
1974	0.9	1.0
1973	4.8	5.0
1972	4.3	4.3
1971	3.1	3.0
1970	NA	NA

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/NationalAccounts.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/DomesticProduct/CurrentRevision.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Methods/NationalAccountRevision/Revision2014_BackgroundPaper.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/02/PE14_048_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/08/PE13_278_811.html https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/11/PE13_381_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/01/PE14_016_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/DE/PresseService/Presse/Pressekonferenzen/2014/BIP2013/Pressebroschuere_BIP2013.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/05/PE14_167_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/09/PE14_306_811.html

The Flash Germany Composite Output Index of the Markit Flash Germany PMI^®, combining manufacturing and services, increased from 53.7 in Aug to 54.0 in Sep. The index of manufacturing output reached 51.1 in Sep, decreasing from 51.5 in Aug, while the index of services increased to 55.4 in Sep from 54.9 in Aug. The overall Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI^® decreased from 51.4 in Aug to 50.3 in Sep (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/5df8b09c92d84d9aad6b99268ffb88a9). New orders in manufacturing contracted. Oliver Kolodseike, Economist at Markit, finds continuing expansion of Germany’s private with weakness in new orders (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/5df8b09c92d84d9aad6b99268ffb88a9). The Markit Germany Composite Output Index of the Markit Germany Services PMI^®, combining manufacturing and services with close association with Germany’s GDP, increased from 53.7 in Aug to 54.1 in Sep (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b19f96225be143568e50e16a95142f66). Oliver Kolodseike, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds growth of GDP in IIIQ2014 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b19f96225be143568e50e16a95142f66). The Germany Services Business Activity Index increased from 54.9 in Aug to 55.7 in Sep (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b19f96225be143568e50e16a95142f66). The Markit/BME Germany Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®), showing close association with Germany’s manufacturing conditions, decreased from 51.4 in Aug to 49.9 in Sep (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/500b6b4240084dd085c344857edb3549). New export orders increased for the fourteenth consecutive month. Oliver Kolodseike, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds slowing output and new orders (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/500b6b4240084dd085c344857edb3549).Table DE provides the country data table for Germany.

Table DE, Germany, Economic Indicators

GDP	IIQ2014 -0.2 ∆%; II/Q2014/IIQ2013 ∆% 0.8 2013/2012: 0.1% GDP ∆% 1970-2013 Blog 8/26/12 5/27/12 11/25/12 2/24/13 5/19/13 5/26/13 8/18/13 8/25/13 11/17/13 11/24/13 1/26/14 2/16/14 3/2/14 5/18/14 5/25/14 8/17/14 9/7/14
Consumer Price Index	Sep month NSA ∆%: 0.0 Sep 12-month NSA ∆%: 0.8 Blog 10/19/14
Producer Price Index	Aug month ∆%: -0.1 NSA, minus 0.1 CSA 12-month NSA ∆%: -0.8 Blog 9/21/14
Industrial Production	MFG Aug month CSA ∆%: minus 4.7 12-month NSA: -5.3 Blog 10/12/14
Machine Orders	MFG Aug month ∆%: -5.7 Aug 12-month ∆%: -4.1 Blog 10/12/14
Retail Sales	Aug Month ∆% 0.71 12-Month ∆% 2.5 Blog 10/5/14
Employment Report	Unemployment Rate SA Aug 4.9% Blog 10/5/14
Trade Balance	Exports Aug 12-month NSA ∆%: -1.0 Imports Aug 12 months NSA ∆%: -2.4 Exports Aug month CSA ∆%: -5.8; Imports Aug month CSA minus -1.3 Blog 10/12/14

Links to blog comments in Table DE:

10/12/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/global-financial-volatility-recovery.html

10/5/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/world-financial-turbulence-twenty-seven.html

9/21/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

9/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/competitive-monetary-policy-and.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

1/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/01/capital-flows-exchange-rates-and.html

11/24/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html

8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

VF France. Table VF-FR provides growth rates of GDP of France with the estimates of Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE). The long-term rate of GDP growth of France from IVQ1949 to IVQ2012 is quite high at 3.2 percent. France’s growth rates were quite high in the four decades of the 1950s, 1960, 1970s and 1980s with an average growth rate of 4.0 percent compounding the average rates in the decades and discounting to one decade. The growth impulse diminished with 2.0 percent in the 1990s and 1.8 percent from 2000 to 2007. The average growth rate from 2000 to 2012, using fourth quarter data, is 1.1 percent because of the sharp impact of the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. The growth rate from 2000 to 2012 is 1.1 percent. Cobet and Wilson (2002) provide estimates of output per hour and unit labor costs in national currency and US dollars for the US, Japan and Germany from 1950 to 2000 (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 137-44). The average yearly rate of productivity change from 1950 to 2000 was 2.9 percent in the US, 6.3 percent for Japan and 4.7 percent for Germany while unit labor costs in USD increased at 2.6 percent in the US, 4.7 percent in Japan and 4.3 percent in Germany. From 1995 to 2000, output per hour increased at the average yearly rate of 4.6 percent in the US, 3.9 percent in Japan and 2.6 percent in Germany while unit labor costs in US fell at minus 0.7 percent in the US, 4.3 percent in Japan and 7.5 percent in Germany. There was increase in productivity growth in the G7 in Japan and France in the second half of the 1990s but significantly lower than the acceleration of 1.3 percentage points per year in the US. Lucas (2011May) compares growth of the G7 economies (US, UK, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Canada) and Spain, finding that catch-up growth with earlier rates for the US and UK stalled in the 1970s.

Table VF-FR, France, Average Growth Rates of GDP Fourth Quarter, 1949-2013

Period	Average ∆%
1949-2013	3.2
2007-2013	0.3
2000-2013	1.1
2000-2012	1.1
2000-2007	1.8
1990-1999	2.1
1980-1989	2.6
1970-1979	3.7
1960-1969	5.7
1950-1959	4.2

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=28&date=20140923

The Markit Flash France Composite Output Index decreased from 49.5 in Aug to 49.1 in Sep (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/bb73066c8dc44fbf88660cbecf77b91d). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds continuing weak performance (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/bb73066c8dc44fbf88660cbecf77b91d). The Markit France Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing with close association with French GDP, decreased from 49.5 in Aug to 48.4 in Sep, indicating marginal contraction (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/82be3cedbcdc4a839163e81d615900f9). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the France Services PMI^®, finds stagnating GDP growth (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/82be3cedbcdc4a839163e81d615900f9). The Markit France Services Activity index decreased from 50.3 in Aug to 48.4 in Sep (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/82be3cedbcdc4a839163e81d615900f9). The Markit France Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^® increased to 48.8 in Sep from 46.9 in Aug (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8bd5e41300354c52ac62bba016c38fa5). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the France Manufacturing PMI^®, finds deteriorating conditions because of weakness in new orders (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8bd5e41300354c52ac62bba016c38fa5). Table FR provides the country data table for France.

Table FR, France, Economic Indicators

CPI	Sep month ∆% -0.4 12 months ∆%: 0.3 10/19/14
PPI	Aug month ∆%: -0.3 Aug 12 months ∆%: -1.4 Blog 10/5/14
GDP Growth	IIQ2014/IQ2014 ∆%:0.0 IIQ2014/IIQ2013 ∆%: 0.1 Blog 3/31/13 5/19/12 6/30/13 9/29/13 11/17/13 12/29/13 2/16/14 4/6/14 5/18/14 6/29/14 8/17/14 9/28/14
Industrial Production	Aug ∆%: Manufacturing -0.2 12-Month ∆%: Manufacturing -0.6 Blog 10/12/14
Consumer Spending	Manufactured Goods Aug ∆%: 0.8 Aug 12-Month Manufactured Goods ∆%: 1.4 Blog 10/5/14
Employment	Unemployment Rate: IIQ2014 9.7% Blog 9/7/14
Trade Balance	Aug Exports ∆%: month -1.3, 12 months -1.2 Aug Imports ∆%: month -0.6, 12 months 0.1 Blog 10/12/14
Confidence Indicators	Historical average 100 Sep Mfg Business Climate 96.0 Blog 9/28/14

Links to blog comments in Table FR:

10/12/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/global-financial-volatility-recovery.html

10/5/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/world-financial-turbulence-twenty-seven.html

9/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html

9/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/competitive-monetary-policy-and.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

12/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/collapse-of-united-states-dynamism-of.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

6/30/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/tapering-quantitative-easing-policy-and.html

5/19/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/word-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

VG Italy. Table VG-IT provides percentage changes in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier of Italy’s expenditure components in chained volume measures. GDP has been declining at sharper rates from minus 0.8 percent in IVQ2011 to minus 2.5 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.4 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.2 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.9 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 1.1 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.3 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and decreased 0.3 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. The aggregate demand components of consumption and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) have been declining at faster rates. The rates of decline of GDP, consumption and GFCF were somewhat milder in IIIQ2013 and IVQ2013 than in IQ2013 and the final three quarters of 2012. Consumption fell 0.3 percent in IQ2014 and GFCF fell 1.7 percent. In IIQ2014, consumption increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier and GFCF fell 2.5 percent.

Table VG-IT, Italy, GDP and Expenditure Components, Chained Volume Measures, Quarter ∆% on Same Quarter Year Earlier

	GDP	Imports	Consumption	GFCF	Exports
2014
IIQ	-0.3	2.5	0.2	-2.5	2.4
IQ	-0.3	0.8	-0.3	-1.7	1.7
2013
IVQ	-1.1	0.5	-1.1	-3.4	1.6
IIIQ	-1.9	-1.8	-2.2	-4.3	0.4
IIQ	-2.2	-4.1	-2.7	-6.1	0.3
IQ	-2.4	-4.9	-2.9	-7.7	1.2
2012
IVQ	-2.5	-7.4	-3.5	-7.7	1.3
IIIQ	-2.5	-8.0	-3.7	-8.1	2.5
IIQ	-2.4	-8.7	-3.6	-7.7	1.2
IQ	-1.9	-8.5	-3.0	-6.6	1.5
2011
IVQ	-0.8	-7.0	-2.1	-3.8	2.4
IIIQ	0.5	0.4	-0.8	-2.7	4.6
IIQ	1.3	3.7	0.4	-1.1	7.7
IQ	1.9	8.4	0.7	0.7	10.3
2010
IVQ	2.3	14.6	1.3	0.5	13.0
IIIQ	1.8	12.9	1.1	0.7	12.4
IIQ	1.9	14.2	1.0	-0.3	13.2
IQ	0.7	6.7	0.9	-3.3	6.8
2009
IVQ	-3.5	-6.3	0.2	-8.2	-9.3
IIIQ	-5.0	-12.2	-0.8	-12.6	-16.4
IIQ	-6.6	-17.9	-1.4	-13.6	-21.4
IQ	-6.9	-17.2	-1.8	-12.4	-22.8
2008
IVQ	-3.0	-8.2	-0.9	-8.3	-10.3
IIIQ	-1.9	-5.0	-0.8	-4.5	-3.9
IIQ	-0.2	-0.1	-0.3	-1.5	0.4
IQ	0.5	1.7	0.1	-1.0	2.9

GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/134394

The Markit/ADACI Business Activity Index decreased from 49.8 in Aug to 48.8 in Sep (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d3dda091545c4391a5fa4b32b0a94302). Phil Smith, Economist at Markit and author of the Italy Services PMI^®, finds weakening demand (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d3dda091545c4391a5fa4b32b0a94302). The Markit/ADACI Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®), increased from 49.8 in Aug to 50.7 in Sep (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/02e47b393b13457a98a844fc7f00961e). Growth of new export orders was strong at faster rate. Phil Smith, Economist at Markit and author of the Italian Manufacturing PMI^®, finds fragile conditions in manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/02e47b393b13457a98a844fc7f00961e. Table VG-1 provides the country data for Italy.

Table IT, Italy, Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index	Sep month ∆%: -0.4 Sep 12-month ∆%: -0.2 Blog 10/19/14
Producer Price Index	Aug month ∆%: 0.0 Aug 12-month ∆%: -2.0 Blog 10/5/14
GDP Growth	IIQ2014/IQ2014 SA ∆%: minus 0.2 IIQ2014/IIQ2013 NSA ∆%: minus 0.3 Blog 3/17/13 6/16/13 8/11/13 9/15/13 11/17/13 12/15/13 2/16/14 3/16/14 5/18/14 6/15/14 8/10/14 8/31/14 10/19/14
Labor Report	Aug 2014 Participation rate 63.6% Employment ratio 55.7% Unemployment rate 12.3% Youth Unemployment 44.2% Blog 10/5/14
Industrial Production	Aug month ∆%: 0.3 12 months CA ∆%: -0.7 Blog 10/12/14
Retail Sales	Jul month ∆%: -0.1 Jul 12-month ∆%: -1.5 Blog 9/28/14
Business Confidence	Mfg Sep 95.1, May 99.6 Construction Sep 75.4, May 73.5 Blog 9/28/14
Trade Balance	Balance Aug SA €3532 million versus Jul €3059 Exports Aug month SA ∆%: 1.1; Imports Aug month ∆%: -0.4 Exports 12 months Aug NSA ∆%: -2.7 Imports 12 months NSA ∆%: -7.0 Blog 10/19/14

Links to blog comments in Table IT:

10/12/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/global-financial-volatility-recovery.html

10/5/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/world-financial-turbulence-twenty-seven.html

9/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html

8/31/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitical-and-financial-risks.html

8/10/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/volatility-of-valuations-of-risk_10.html

6/15/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financialgeopolitical-risks-recovery.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

8/11/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/recovery-without-hiring-loss-of-full.html

6/16/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/recovery-without-hiring-seven-million.html

3/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

Table VG-1 provides revised percentage changes of GDP in Italy of quarter on prior quarter and quarter on same quarter a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.2 percent in IIQ2014 and declined 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy changed 0.0 percent in IQ2014 and fell 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2013, interrupting nine consecutive quarterly declines, and fell 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2013 and fell 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.2 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.8 percent in IQ2013 and declined 2.4 percent relative to IQ2012. GDP had been growing during six consecutive quarters but at very low rates from IQ2010 to IIQ2011. Italy’s GDP has fallen in eight consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IIIQ2013 at increasingly higher rates of contraction from 0.3 percent in IIIQ2011 to 0.8 percent in IVQ2011, 0.9 percent in IQ2012 and 0.4 percent in IIQ2012 and 0.4 percent in IIIQ2012. The pace of decline accelerated to minus 0.8 percent in IVQ2012 and 0.8 percent in IQ2013, declining to minus 0.2 percent in IIQ2013 and 0.0 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP contracted cumulatively 4.5 percent in eight consecutive quarterly contractions from IIIQ2011 to IIQ2013 at the annual equivalent rate of 2.3 percent. The total contraction in the 12 quarters including IVQ2013 and IIQ2014 accumulates to 4.8 percent. The yearly rate has fallen from 2.3 percent in IVQ2010 to minus 2.4 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.2 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.9 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 1.1 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.3 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and fell 0.3 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. The fiscal adjustment of Italy is significantly more difficult with the economy not growing especially on the prospects of increasing government revenue. The strategy is for reforms to improve productivity, facilitating future fiscal consolidation.

Table VG-1, Italy, GDP ∆%

	Quarter ∆% Relative to Preceding Quarter	Quarter ∆% Relative to Same Quarter Year Earlier
IIQ2014	-0.2	-0.3
IQ2014	0.0	-0.3
IVQ2013	-0.1	-1.1
IIIQ2013	0.0	-1.9
IIQ2013	-0.2	-2.2
IQ2013	-0.8	-2.4
IVQ2012	-0.8	-2.5
IIIQ2012	-0.4	-2.5
IIQ2012	-0.4	-2.4
IQ2012	-0.9	-1.9
IVQ2011	-0.8	-0.8
IIIQ2011	-0.3	0.5
IIQ2011	0.1	1.3
IQ2011	0.3	1.9
IVQ2010	0.4	2.3
IIIQ2010	0.4	1.8
IIQ2010	0.8	1.9
IQ2010	0.6	0.7
IVQ2009	-0.1	-3.5
IIIQ2009	0.4	-5.0
IIQ2009	-0.3	-6.6
IQ2009	-3.5	-6.9
IVQ2008	-1.6	-3.0
IIIQ2008	-1.3	-1.9
IIQ2008	-0.5	-0.2
IQ2008	0.5	0.5
IV2007	-0.4	0.1
IIIQ2007	0.3	1.7
IIQ2007	0.2	2.0
IQ2007	0.0	2.4

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/134394

Table VG-2 provides percentage changes in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier of Italy’s expenditure components in chained volume measures. GDP has been declining at sharper rates from minus 0.8 percent in IVQ2011 to minus 2.5 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.4 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.2 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.9 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 1.1 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.3 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and decreased 0.3 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. The aggregate demand components of consumption and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) have been declining at faster rates. The rates of decline of GDP, consumption and GFCF were somewhat milder in IIIQ2013 and IVQ2013 than in IQ2013 and the final three quarters of 2012. Consumption fell 0.3 percent in IQ2014 and GFCF fell 1.7 percent. In IIQ2014, consumption increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier and GFCF fell 2.5 percent.

Table VG-2, Italy, GDP and Expenditure Components, Chained Volume Measures, Quarter ∆% on Same Quarter Year Earlier

	GDP	Imports	Consumption	GFCF	Exports
2014
IIQ	-0.3	2.5	0.2	-2.5	2.4
IQ	-0.3	0.8	-0.3	-1.7	1.7
2013
IVQ	-1.1	0.5	-1.1	-3.4	1.6
IIIQ	-1.9	-1.8	-2.2	-4.3	0.4
IIQ	-2.2	-4.1	-2.7	-6.1	0.3
IQ	-2.4	-4.9	-2.9	-7.7	1.2
2012
IVQ	-2.5	-7.4	-3.5	-7.7	1.3
IIIQ	-2.5	-8.0	-3.7	-8.1	2.5
IIQ	-2.4	-8.7	-3.6	-7.7	1.2
IQ	-1.9	-8.5	-3.0	-6.6	1.5
2011
IVQ	-0.8	-7.0	-2.1	-3.8	2.4
IIIQ	0.5	0.4	-0.8	-2.7	4.6
IIQ	1.3	3.7	0.4	-1.1	7.7
IQ	1.9	8.4	0.7	0.7	10.3
2010
IVQ	2.3	14.6	1.3	0.5	13.0
IIIQ	1.8	12.9	1.1	0.7	12.4
IIQ	1.9	14.2	1.0	-0.3	13.2
IQ	0.7	6.7	0.9	-3.3	6.8
2009
IVQ	-3.5	-6.3	0.2	-8.2	-9.3
IIIQ	-5.0	-12.2	-0.8	-12.6	-16.4
IIQ	-6.6	-17.9	-1.4	-13.6	-21.4
IQ	-6.9	-17.2	-1.8	-12.4	-22.8
2008
IVQ	-3.0	-8.2	-0.9	-8.3	-10.3
IIIQ	-1.9	-5.0	-0.8	-4.5	-3.9
IIQ	-0.2	-0.1	-0.3	-1.5	0.4
IQ	0.5	1.7	0.1	-1.0	2.9

GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/134394

Table VG-3 provides percentage changes in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier for GDP and value added components. Percentage declines of industry have been sharper from IVQ2011 to IVQ2013 than for services. Industry contracted 0.5 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier while services contracted 0.2 percent. In IIQ2014, industry contracted 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier while services decreased 0.1 percent.

Table VG-3, Italy, GDP and Valued Added of Components, Chained Volume Measures, Quarter ∆% on Same Quarter Year Earlier

	Agriculture	Industry	Services	VA	GDP Market Prices
% Value Added 2013	2.0	23.3	74.7
2014
IIQ	-0.6	-0.9	-0.1	-0.3	-0.3
IQ	-0.9	-0.5	-0.2	-0.3	-0.3
2013
IV	2.1	-2.0	-1.0	-1.2	-1.1
IIIQ	1.4	-4.0	-1.0	-1.7	-1.9
IIQ	-1.8	-4.3	-1.3	-2.0	-2.2
IQ	0.7	-4.5	-1.5	-2.1	-2.4
2012
IVQ	-5.5	-4.2	-1.4	-2.2	-2.5
IIIQ	-3.9	-3.1	-1.9	-2.2	-2.5
IIQ	0.4	-4.0	-1.5	-2.0	-2.4
IQ	-1.7	-3.5	-1.0	-1.6	-1.9
2011
IVQ	2.8	-2.1	-0.2	-0.6	-0.8
IIIQ	2.6	-0.9	0.9	0.5	0.5
IIQ	0.9	0.9	1.4	1.2	1.3
IQ	1.3	3.1	1.5	1.9	1.9
2010
IVQ	1.3	4.0	1.7	2.3	2.3
IIIQ	-0.8	5.2	0.9	1.9	1.8
IIQ	0.5	5.3	0.9	2.0	1.9
IQ	0.4	1.1	0.6	0.7	0.7
2009
IVQ	-3.7	-7.4	-2.4	-2.0	-3.5
IIIQ	-0.3	-13.3	-2.1	-4.3	-5.0
IIQ	-4.1	-16.7	-3.0	-5.6	-6.6
IQ	-1.9	-16.5	-3.3	-6.6	-6.9
2008
IVQ	2.2	-8.2	-1.3	-2.1	-3.0
IIIQ	1.0	-3.9	-1.2	-1.7	-1.9
IIQ	2.3	-0.6	0.0	-1.4	-0.2
IQ	0.1	1.0	0.4	-0.1	0.5

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/134394

Chart VG-1 of the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) provides growth of GDP of Italy at market prices. The year on year rate of growth pulled strongly out of the contraction. There is evident trend of deceleration with increasingly sharper contraction and mild moderation in 2013 and 2014.

Chart VG-1, Italy, GDP at Market Prices, ∆% on Same Quarter Year Earlier

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/

Exports and imports of Italy and monthly growth rates SA are in Table VG-4. There have been significant fluctuations. Seasonally adjusted exports increased 1.1 percent in Aug 2014 while imports decreased 0.4 percent. The SA trade balance improved from surplus of €3059 million in Jul 2014 to surplus of €3532 million in Aug 2014.

Table VG-4, Italy, Exports, Imports and Trade Balance SA Million Euros and Month SA ∆%

	Exports	∆%	Imports	∆%	Balance
2012
IQ	96,297	1.0	97,012	-0.7	-715
2Q	97,750	1.5	96,032	-1.0	1,718
3Q	99,265	1.5	96,157	0.1	3,108
4Q	98,003	-1.3	92,890	-3.4	5,113
2013
IQ	97,683	-0.3	91,567	-1.4	6,116
IIQ	97,807	0.1	89,069	-2.7	8,738
IIIQ	98,096	0.3	91,242	2.4	6,854
IVQ	98,707	0.6	89,189	-2.3	9,518
2014
IQ	98,944	0.2	88,310	-1.0	10,634
IIQ	99,479	0.5	89,428	1.3	10,051
2012
Aug	33,591	1.7	33,094	3.7	497
Sep	32,659	-2.8	31,150	-5.9	1,509
Oct	32,814	0.5	31,428	0.9	1,386
Nov	32,958	0.4	31,034	-1.3	1,924
Dec	32,231	-2.2	30,428	-2.0	1,803
2013
Jan	33,059	2.6	31,241	2.7	1,818
Feb	32,094	-2.9	30,111	-3.6	1,983
Mar	32,530	1.4	30,215	0.3	2,315
Apr	32,403	-0.4	29,818	-1.3	2,585
May	32,530	0.4	29,512	-1.0	3,018
Jun	32,874	1.1	29,739	0.8	3,135
Jul	32,407	-1.4	30,068	1.1	2,339
Aug	32,752	1.1	30,530	1.5	2,222
Sep	32,937	0.6	30,644	0.4	2,293
Oct	32,735	-0.6	29,824	-2.7	2,911
Nov	32,161	-1.8	29,120	-2.4	3,041
Dec	33,811	5.1	30,245	3.9	3,566
2014
Jan	33,278	-1.6	29,617	-2.1	3,661
Feb	32,958	-1.0	29,465	-0.5	3,493
Mar	32,708	-0.8	29,228	-0.8	3,480
Apr	32,819	0.3	29,113	-0.4	3,706
May	33,568	2.3	29,847	2.5	3,721
Jun	33,092	-1.4	30,468	2.1	2,624
Jul	32,598	-1.5	29,539	-3.0	3,059
Aug	32,961	1.1	29,429	-0.4	3,532

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/134544

Italy’s trade account not seasonally adjusted is in Table VG-5. Values are different because the data are original and not adjusted. Exports decreased 2.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014 while imports decreased 7.0 percent with actual trade surplus of €2056 million. Twelve-month rates of growth picked up again in Aug 2011 with 15.2 percent for exports and 12.6 percent for imports. In Sep 2011, exports grew 10.2 percent relative to a year earlier while imports grew only 3.6 percent. In Oct 2011, exports grew 4.5 percent while imports fell 0.2 percent. In Nov 2011, exports grew 6.5 percent in 12 months while imports grew 0.5 percent. Exports continued to growth of 7.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2012 while imports fell 1.8 percent. The actual or not seasonally adjusted trade balance deficit fell from €2948 million in Aug 2011 to surplus of €1407 million in Dec 2011 but turned into deficit of €4691 million in Jan 2012. The deficit improved to lower deficit of €1311 million in Feb 2012 and surplus of €1831 million in Mar 2012, returning to deficit of €421 million in Apr and surplus of €833 million in May. In Jun 2012, the actual surplus was €2681 million and then €4673 million in Jul 2012, which was the highest in 2012, but deteriorated to actual deficit of €535 million in Aug 2012. Exports fell 20.9 percent and imports 22.1 percent during the global recession in 2009. Growth of exports was 12.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2012 while imports increased 1.4 percent, increasing the trade surplus to €2337 million. The trade surplus was €2314 million in Dec 2012 with growth of exports of minus 4.5 percent in 12 months while imports fell 7.8 percent. The trade balance deteriorated to deficit of €1810 million in Jan 2013 even with growth of exports of 8.9 percent in 12 months while imports fell 1.4 percent. The trade balance returned to surplus of €1045 million in Feb 2013 with decline of exports by 2.9 percent and decrease of imports by 9.9 percent. The surplus widened to €3081 million in Mar 2013 with exports declining 6.1 percent and imports falling 10.1 percent. The surplus shrank to €2006 million in Apr 2013 with growth of exports of 4.4 and decline of imports of 3.5 percent. The surplus increased to €3893 million in May 2013 with declines of exports of 1.9 percent and of imports of 10.8 percent. The surplus declined to €3542 million in Jun 2013 with decline of exports of 3.3 percent in 12 months and of imports of 6.3 percent.

Table VG-5, Italy, Exports, Imports and Trade Balance NSA Million Euros and Year-on-Year ∆%

	Exports	∆%	Imports	∆%	Balance
2011	375,904	11.4	401,428	9.3	-25,524
2012	390,182	3.8	380,292	-5.3	9,890
2013	389,854	-0.1	359,454	-5.5	30,400
2011
IQ	90,128	18.1	103,760	21.7	-13,632
IIQ	97,274	13.4	104,303	22.4	-7,029
IIIQ	92,567	9.8	96,138	12.8	-3,571
IVQ	95,935	5.5	97,227	-2.7	-1,292
2012
IQ	95,398	5.8	99,568	-4.0	-4,170
IIQ	100,172	3.0	97,079	-6.9	3,093
IIIQ	94,938	2.6	90,670	-5.7	4,268
IVQ	99,674	3.9	92,975	-4.4	6,699
2013
IQ	94,695	-0.7	92,379	-7.2	2,316
IIQ	99,724	-0.4	90,283	-7.0	9,441
IIIQ	95,094	0.2	87,209	-3.8	7,885
IVQ	100,341	0.7	89,584	-3.6	10,758
2014
IQ	96,105	1.5	89,228	-3.4	6,877
IIQ	100,815	1.1	90,344	0.1	10,471
2012
Aug	26,166	7.9	26,701	-1.8	-535
Sep	31,583	-4.3	31,452	-9.8	131
Oct	36,037	12.2	33,700	1.4	2,337
Nov	33,688	3.8	31,641	-7.0	2,047
Dec	29,948	-4.5	27,634	-7.8	2,314
2013
Jan	29,913	8.9	31,723	-1.4	-1,810
Feb	30,884	-2.9	29,839	-9.9	1,045
Mar	33,897	-6.1	30,816	-10.1	3,081
Apr	31,878	4.4	29,873	-3.5	2,006
May	34,576	-1.9	30,682	-10.8	3,893
Jun	33,270	-3.3	29,728	-6.3	3,542
Jul	38,136	2.5	32,156	-1.1	5,980
Aug	24,741	-5.4	23,667	-11.4	1,074
Sep	32,217	2.0	31,386	-0.2	831
Oct	36,330	0.8	32,271	-4.2	4,060
Nov	32,538	-3.4	29,450	-6.9	3,088
Dec	31,473	5.1	27,863	0.8	3,610
2014
Jan	29,988	0.2	29,626	-6.6	362
Feb	31,815	3.0	29,186	-2.2	2,629
Mar	34,302	1.2	30,417	-1.3	3,886
Apr	32,512	2.0	28,995	-2.9	3,517
May	34,676	0.3	30,958	0.9	3,718
Jun	33,626	1.1	30,390	2.2	3,236
Jul	38,616	1.3	31,694	-1.4	6,923
Aug	24,070	-2.7	22,014	-7.0	2,056

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/134544

Growth rates of Italy’s trade and major products are in Table VG-6 for the period Jan-Aug 2014 relative to Jan-Aug 2013. Growth rates of cumulative imports relative to a year earlier are negative for energy with minus 18.4 percent. Exports of durable goods grew 1.9 percent and exports of capital goods increased 2.6 percent. The higher rate of growth of exports of 0.9 percent in Jan-Aug 2014/Jan-Aug 2013 relative to that of imports of minus 2.2 percent may reflect weak demand in Italy with GDP declining during nine consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 through IIIQ2013 together with softening commodity prices. GDP decreased marginally 0.1 percent in IVQ2013, changed 0.0 percent in IQ2014 and fell 0.2 percent in IIQ2014.

Table VG-6, Italy, Exports and Imports % Share of Products in Total and ∆%

	Exports Share %	Exports ∆% Jan-Aug 2014/ Jan-Aug 2013	Imports Share %	Imports ∆% Jan-Aug 2014/ Jan-Aug 2013
Consumer Goods	31.0	2.8	27.3	2.6
Durable	6.0	1.9	2.9	7.7
Non-Durable	25.1	3.0	24.4	2.0
Capital Goods	32.3	2.6	20.3	3.3
Inter- mediate Goods	32.3	-0.8	32.5	0.6
Energy	4.4	-12.5	19.9	-18.4
Total ex Energy	95.6	1.5	80.1	1.9
Total	100.0	0.9	100.0	-2.2

Note: % Share for 2012 total trade.

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/134544

Table VG-7 provides Italy’s trade balance by product categories in Aug 2014 and cumulative Jan-Aug 2014. Italy’s trade balance excluding energy, generated surplus of 4,946 million in Aug 2014 and €55,829 million cumulative in Jan-Aug 2014 but the energy trade balance created deficit of €2890 million in Aug 2014 and cumulative €29,502 million in Jan-Aug 2014. The overall surplus in Aug 2014 was €2056 million with cumulative surplus of €26,237 million in Jan-Aug 2014. Italy has significant competitiveness in various economic activities in contrast with some other countries with debt difficulties.

Table VG-7, Italy, Trade Balance by Product Categories, € Millions

	Aug 2014	Cumulative Jan-Aug 2014
Consumer Goods	843	14,968
Durable	665	8,226
Nondurable	178	6,743
Capital Goods	3,419	35,612
Intermediate Goods	684	5,248
Energy	-2,890	-29,502
Total ex Energy	4,946	55,829
Total	2,056	26,327

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/134544

Professors Ricardo Caballero and Francesco Giavazzi (2012Jan15) find that the resolution of the European sovereign crisis with survival of the euro area would require success in the restructuring of Italy. Growth of the Italian economy would ensure that success. A critical problem is that the common euro currency prevents Italy from devaluing the exchange rate to parity or the exchange rate that would permit export growth to promote internal economic activity, which could generate fiscal revenues for primary fiscal surpluses that ensure creditworthiness. Fiscal consolidation and restructuring are important but of long-term gestation. Immediate growth of the Italian economy would consolidate the resolution of the sovereign debt crisis. Caballero and Giavazzi (2012Jan15) argue that 55 percent of the exports of Italy are to countries outside the euro area such that devaluation of 15 percent would be effective in increasing export revenue. Newly available data in Table VG-8 providing Italy’s trade with regions and countries supports the argument of Caballero and Giavazzi (2012Jan15). Italy’s exports to the European Monetary Union (EMU), or euro area, are only 39.8 percent of the total in Aug 2014. Exports to the non-European Union area with share of 46.3 percent in Italy’s total exports are growing at minus 2.1 percent in Jan-Aug 2014 relative to Jan-Aug 2013 while those to EMU are growing at 2.5 percent.

Table VG-8, Italy, Exports and Imports by Regions and Countries, % Share and 12-Month ∆%

Jul 2014	Exports % Share	∆% Jan-Aug 2014/ Jan-Aug 2013	Imports % Share	∆% Jan-Aug 2014/ Jan-Aug 2013
EU	53.7	3.5	55.3	0.8
EMU 18	39.8	2.5	44.3	-0.2
France	10.8	-1.1	8.4	0.6
Germany	12.4	3.9	14.7	2.6
Spain	4.4	4.0	4.5	2.4
UK	5.0	4.5	2.7	2.5
Non EU	46.3	-2.1	44.7	-5.8
Europe non EU	13.0	-9.0	12.1	-6.0
USA	6.9	9.0	3.2	6.4
China	2.5	6.1	6.4	4.7
OPEC	6.0	-6.9	8.1	-33.2
Total	100.0	0.9	100.0	-2.2

Notes: EU: European Union; EMU: European Monetary Union (euro zone)

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/134544

Table VG-9 provides Italy’s trade balance by regions and countries. Italy had trade deficit of €471 million with the 18 countries of the euro zone (EMU 18) in Aug 2014 and cumulative surplus of €1252 million in Jan-Aug 2014. Depreciation to parity could permit greater competitiveness in improving the trade surplus of €3748 million in Jan-Aug 2014 with Europe non-European Union, the trade surplus of €11,085 million with the US and the trade surplus with non-European Union of €14,712 million in Jan-Aug 2014. There is significant rigidity in the trade deficit in Jan-Aug 2014 of €9419 million with China. There is a trade surplus of €380 million with members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Higher exports could drive economic growth in the economy of Italy that would permit less onerous adjustment of the country’s fiscal imbalances, raising the country’s credit rating.

Table VG-9, Italy, Trade Balance by Regions and Countries, Millions of Euro 

Regions and Countries	Trade Balance Aug 2014 Millions of Euro	Trade Balance Cumulative Jan-Aug 2014 Millions of Euro
EU	339	11,615
EMU 18	-471	1,252
France	370	7,843
Germany	-336	-2,198
Spain	-19	768
UK	688	6,922
Non EU	1,717	14,712
Europe non EU	662	3,748
USA	1,193	11,085
China	-1,166	-9,419
OPEC	-246	380
Total	2,056	26,327

Notes: EU: European Union; EMU: European Monetary Union (euro zone)

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/134544

VH United Kingdom. Annual data in Table VH-UK show the strong impact of the global recession in the UK with decline of GDP of 4.3 percent in 2009 after dropping 0.3 percent in 2008. Recovery of 1.9 percent in 2010 is relatively low in comparison with annual growth rates in 2007 and earlier years. Growth was only 1.6 percent in 2011 and 0.7 percent in 2012. Growth increased to 1.7 percent in 2013. The bottom part of Table VH-UK provides average growth rates of UK GDP since 1948. The UK economy grew at 2.6 percent per year on average between 1948 and 2013, which is relatively high for an advanced economy. The growth rate of GDP between 2000 and 2007 is higher at 2.9 percent. Growth in the current cyclical expansion has been only at 1.2 percent as advanced economies struggle with weak internal demand and world trade. GDP in 2013 higher by 1.2 percent relative to 2007.

Table VH-UK, UK, Gross Domestic Product, ∆%

	∆% on Prior Year
1998	3.5
1999	3.2
2000	3.8
2001	2.7
2002	2.5
2003	4.3
2004	2.5
2005	2.8
2006	3.0
2007	2.6
2008	-0.3
2009	-4.3
2010	1.9
2011	1.6
2012	0.7
2013	1.7
Average Growth Rates ∆% per Year
1948-2013	2.6
1950-1959	3.1
1960-1969	3.1
1970-1979	2.6
1980-1989	3.1
1990-1999	2.2
2000-2007	2.9
2007-2012*	-0.6
2007-2013*	1.2
2000-2013	1.6

*Absolute change from 2007 to 2012 an from 2007 to 2013

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/quarterly-national-accounts/q2-2014/index.html

The Business Activity Index of the Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI^® decreased from 60.5 in Aug to 58.7 in Sep (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/fa89cdb774d24249b9a5888431b53851). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds the combined indices consistent with the UK economy growing at around 0.8 percent in IIIQ2014 if activity continues at current rates (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/fa89cdb774d24249b9a5888431b53851). The Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®) decreased to 51.6 in Sep from 52.2 in Aug (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/389ebd83e6dc44cdaf5be34cf37da690). New export orders increased for the eighteenth consecutive month from North America, Germany, Scandinavia and the Middle East. Rob Dobson, Senior Economist at Markit that compiles the Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI^®, finds that manufacturing conditions are slowing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/389ebd83e6dc44cdaf5be34cf37da690). Table UK provides the economic indicators for the United Kingdom.

Table UK, UK Economic Indicators

CPI	Sep month ∆%: 0.0 Sep 12-month ∆%: 1.2 Blog 10/19/14
Output/Input Prices	Output Prices: Sep 12-month NSA ∆%: -0.4; excluding food, petroleum ∆%: 0.8 Input Prices: Sep 12-month NSA ∆%: -7.4 Excluding ∆%: -3.0 Blog 10/19/14
GDP Growth	IIQ2014 prior quarter ∆% 0.9; year earlier same quarter ∆%: 3.2 Blog 3/31/13 4/28/13 5/26/13 7/28/13 8/25/13 9/29/13 10/27/13 12/1/13 12/22/13 2/2/14 3/2/14 4/6/14 5/4/14 5/25/14 6/29/14 7/27/14 8/17/14 10/5/14
Industrial Production	Aug 2014/Aug 2013 ∆%: Production Industries 2.5; Manufacturing 3.9 Blog 10/12/14
Retail Sales	Aug month ∆%: 0.4 Aug 12-month ∆%: 3.9 Blog 9/21/14
Labor Market	Jun-Aug Unemployment Rate: 6.0%; Claimant Count 2.8%; Earnings Growth 0.7% Blog 10/19/14 LMGDP 8/17/14
GDP and the Labor Market	IIQ2014 Weekly Hours 103.8, GDP 100.2, Employment 103.7 IQ2008 =100 GDP IIQ14 100.2 IQ2008=100 Blog 8/17/14
Trade Balance	Balance SA Aug minus ₤1917 million Exports Aug ∆%: -1.7; Jun-Aug ∆%: -7.4 Imports Aug ∆%: -4.2 Jun-Aug ∆%: -6.9 Blog 10/12/14

Links to blog comments in Table UK:

10/12/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/global-financial-volatility-recovery.html

10/5/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/world-financial-turbulence-twenty-seven.html

9/21/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

7/27/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

5/4/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html

4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html

3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html

2/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

12/22/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html

12/1/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/exit-risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html

10/27/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/twenty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html

9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html

7/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html

5/26/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

4/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_28.html

03/31/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

The UK Office for National Statistics provides important analysis of the relation of GDP and the labor market (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q2-2014--august-quarterly-update/index.html

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q1-2014--may-gdp-update/index.html

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q1-2014--april-gdp-update/index.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2013-q4--march-gdp-update/index.html

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q4-2013--february-labour-market-update/index.html

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q4-2013--january-gdp-update/index.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q3-2013--december-gdp-update/index.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q3-2013--november-gdp-update/sum-nov-gdp.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q3-2013--october-gdp-update/sum-october-gdp.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2013-q2--august-labour-market-update/index.html

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2013-q1--may-labour-market-update/sum-may13-labour.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2013-q1--may-labour-market-update/index.html

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2012-q4--january-gdp-update/sum-jan13.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2012-q4--february-labour-market-update/sum-2012-q4---february-labour-update.html). The UK economy grew 0.8 percent in IIQ2014 with output 0.2 percent above the level before the global recession in IQ2008 (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q2-2014--august-quarterly-update/index.html

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q1-2014--april-gdp-update/index.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2013-q4--march-gdp-update/index.html

(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q4-2013--january-gdp-update/index.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q3-2013--december-gdp-update/sum-dec-gdp.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q3-2013--october-gdp-update/sum-october-gdp.html). Chart VH-1 of the UK Office for National Statistics (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q1-2014--may-gdp-update/index.html

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q1-2014--april-gdp-update/index.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q3-2013--october-gdp-update/sum-october-gdp.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2013-q1--may-labour-market-update/sum-may13-labour.html) shows weakening output but relatively faster increases in employment and hours worked. Output growth and labor market improvement are converging.

Chart VH-1, UK, Employment Level Ages 16 and Over, Total Weekly Hours, GDP and Output per Hour, 2008-2014

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q2-2014--august-quarterly-update/index.html

Table VH-L1 of the UK Office for national Statistics provides the data for GDP and the labor market (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q2-2014--august-quarterly-update/index.html

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q1-2014--may-gdp-update/index.html

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q1-2014--april-gdp-update/index.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2013-q4--march-gdp-update/index.html

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q4-2013--february-gdp-update/index.html

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q4-2013--february-labour-market-update/index.html

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q4-2013--january-gdp-update/index.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q3-2013--december-gdp-update/sum-dec-gdp.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q3-2013--november-gdp-update/sum-nov-gdp.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q3-2013--october-gdp-update/sum-october-gdp.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2013-q2--august-labour-market update/index.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2013-q1--may-gdp-update/index.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2013-q1--may-labour-market-update/sum-may13-labour.html) provides total weekly hours, output and employment quarterly from 2008 to 2013. Improving output has been accompanied recently by improvements in hours worked and employment. From IQ2008 to IIQ2014, employment increased 3.7 percent and hours worked 3.8 percent while GDP was 0.2 percent higher. In IIQ2014, GDP grew 0.8 percent relative to IQ2012 and 3.3 percent relative to IIQ2013 and is now 0.2 percent above the peak in IIQ2008 (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/second-estimate-of-gdp/q2-2014/index.html).

Table VH-L1, UK, Indices of Quarterly Employment Ages 16 and Over, Total Hours Worked, GDP and Output per Hour, 2008-2014

				Index, Q1 2008 =100
	GDP, CVM	Employment, Aged 16 +	Total weekly hours, Aged 16 +	Output per hour worked
	YBEZ	MGRZ	YBUS	LZVB
2008 Q1	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
Q2	99.1	100.1	98.9	99.6
Q3	97.6	99.6	98.9	98.6
Q4	95.6	99.4	98.3	96.4
2009 Q1	93.2	98.9	96.7	95.7
Q2	92.8	97.9	96.3	95.1
Q3	92.8	97.8	95.8	95.6
Q4	93.2	97.9	95.8	94.5
2010 Q1	93.7	97.6	95.7	97.1
Q2	94.6	98.2	96.5	96.4
Q3	95.0	98.9	97.0	96.8
Q4	94.8	98.7	97.4	96.1
2011 Q1	95.3	99.0	97.4	96.5
Q2	95.4	99.0	96.3	97.9
Q3	95.9	98.5	97.1	97.7
Q4	95.8	98.8	97.3	97.4
2012 Q1	95.8	99.2	98.0	96.7
Q2	95.5	99.9	98.5	95.8
Q3	96.1	100.2	99.6	95.6
Q4	95.9	100.8	99.8	95.1
2013 Q1	96.5	100.7	100.1	95.3
Q2	97.1	100.9	100.4	95.7
Q2	97.9	101.5	101.4	95.6
Q4	98.6	102.2	101.8	95.7
2014 Q1	99.3	103.1	102.8	95.7
Q2	100.2	103.7	103.8

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q2-2014--august-quarterly-update/index.html

Chart VH-2 of the UK Office for National Statistics provides comparison of output performance during four cycles in the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. Output is indexed to the pre-recession peak. For example, the index for the current economic cycles is 100 for IQ2008. Output performance was stronger in the earlier economic cycles.

Chart VH-2, UK, Index of Output in Economic Cycles

UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q4-2013--january-gdp-update/index.html

Table VH-L2 provides output in the four economic cycles. Output increased 8.8 percent in the cycle of the early 1970s, 11.7 percent in the cycle of the 1980s and 15.8 percent in the cycle of the 1990s. Output is 1.3 percent below the pre-recession peak in IQ2008.

Table VH-L2, Index of Output in Economic Cycles, Pre-Contraction = 100

Early 70s (1973 Q2=100)	Early 80s (1979 Q4=100)	Early 90s (1990 Q2=100)	Latest (2008 Q1=100)
ABMI	ABMI	ABMI	ABMI
100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
99.1	99.0	99.1	99.1
99.1	97.3	98.4	97.6
96.8	97.1	98.3	95.6
98.6	95.8	97.9	93.2
99.5	95.4	97.6	92.8
98.4	95.4	97.9	92.8
98.6	96.6	98.4	93.2
97.2	96.6	98.6	93.7
97.0	97.1	99.4	94.6
98.4	98.3	100.3	95.0
100.0	98.3	101.4	94.8
99.1	99.0	102.1	95.3
100.0	100.4	103.2	95.4
102.1	101.3	104.1	95.9
102.3	102.5	105.5	95.8
101.8	103.8	107.1	95.7
102.5	104.8	108.7	95.4
104.1	104.2	109.6	96.1
104.6	104.6	110.1	96.0
105.5	106.3	110.9	96.5
106.7	107.5	112.3	97.3
107.6	109.2	112.9	98.0
106.7	109.2	114.2	98.7
111.3	110.1	114.8
108.8	111.7	115.8

UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q4-2013--january-gdp-update/index.html

Labor market statistics of the UK for the quarter Jun 2014-Aug 2014 are provided in Table VH-L2. The unemployment rate fell to 6.0 percent and the number unemployed decreased 538,000 in the year, reaching 1.972 million. The employment rate is 73.0 percent. Earnings growth including bonuses increased 0.7 percent over the earlier year. The claimant count or those receiving unemployment benefits stands at 2.8 percent, down 0.1 percentage points on the month and down 1.1 percentage points on the year.

Table VH-L2, UK, Labor Market Statistics

	Quarter Jun 2014-Aug 2014
Unemployment Rate	6.0 %, 6.8% prior quarter and 7.8% year earlier
Number Unemployed	(1) Down 154,000 on quarter and down 538,000 from year earlier to reach 1.972 million (2) Unemployment rate 16 to 24 years of age 16.6% of that age group (3) Unemployed 16 to 24 years excluding those in full-time education 467,000 (266,000 in full-time education); unemployment rate 16.0% down 1.7% Points
Number Unemployed > one and two years	(1) Number unemployed over one year: 711,000, down 43,000 on quarter, down 194,000 on year (2) Number unemployed over two years: 388,000, down 30,000 on quarter, down 81,000 on year
Inactivity Rate 16-64 Years of Age (Definition: Not in employment but have not been seeking employment in the past four weeks or are unable to start work in two weeks)	(1) 22.2%, 22.0% prior quarter, 22.4% year earlier (2) Economically inactive 16-64 years up 113,000 on quarter and down 46,000 on year to 9.028 million
Employment Rate	73.0%, 72.9% prior quarter, 71.5% year earlier
Number Employed	(1) Up 46,000 on quarter, +736,000 on year to 30.763 million                              (2) Number of employees up 424,000 on year to 25.816 million (3) Self-employed rose 368,000 on year to 4.541 million (4) Full-time 19.056 million, up 371,000 on year (5) 6.760 million working part-time, up 52,000 on year
Earnings Growth Rates Year on Year	(1) Total 0.7% (including bonuses) over year earlier; regular 0.9%; private sector 1.0% on year earlier, public sector -0.2% on year earlier   (2) Regular private 1.2% (excluding bonuses); regular public 0.8% on year earlier
Full-time and Part-time	(1) Number employees full-time 19.149 million, up 422,000 on year; self-employed full-time 3.255 million up 187,000 on year (2) Number employees part-time 6.837 million, up 62,000 on year; self-employed part-time 1.268 million, up 92,000 in year
Claimant Count (Jobseeker’s Allowance, JSA)	(1) Latest estimate: 951,900; down 18,600 in month, down 394,500 on year earlier (2) Claimant count 2.8%, down 0.1 on month and down 1.1 % points on year

Note: Labor Force Survey does not measure monthly changes. Comparisons on quarter are on quarter before prior quarter

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/october-2014/statistical-bulletin.html

Table VH-L3 provides indicators of the labor force survey of the UK for Jun 2014-Aug 2014 and earlier quarters. There has been improvement in UK labor markets with the rate of unemployment decreasing from 7.7 percent in Jun-Aug 2013 to 6.0 percent in Jun-Aug 2014.

Table VH-L3, UK, Labor Force Survey Indicators

	LFHP	EMP	PART	UNE	RATE
Jun-Aug 2012	40,500	29,780	71.2	2,553	7.9
Jun-Aug 2013	40,550	30,028	71.5	2,510	7.7
Sep-Nov 2013	40,571	30,288	72.0	2,332	7.1
Dec-Feb 2014	40,592	30,491	72.4	2,254	6.9
Mar-May 2014	40,612	30,717	72.9	2,126	6.5
Jun-Aug 2014	40,633	30,763	73.0	1,972	6.0

Notes: LFHP: Labor Force Household Population Ages 16 to 64 in thousands; EMP: Employed Ages 16 and over in thousands; PART: Employment as % of Population Ages 16 to 64; UNE: Unemployed Ages 16 and over in thousands; Rate: Number Unemployed Ages 16 and over as % of Employed plus Unemployed

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/october-2014/statistical-bulletin.html

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014.