“Irrational Exuberance,” Mediocre Cyclical United States Economic Growth with GDP Two Trillion Dollars below Trend, Contracting Real Private Fixed Investment, World Inflation Waves, United States Housing Collapse, Unresolved US Balance of Payments Deficits and Fiscal Imbalance Threatening Risk Premium on Treasury Securities, World Cyclical Slow Growth and Global Recession Risk
Carlos M. Pelaez
© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015
I Mediocre Cyclical United States Economic Growth with GDP Two Trillion Dollars below Trend
IA Mediocre Cyclical United States Economic Growth
IA1 Contracting Real Private Fixed Investment
I World Inflation Waves
IA Appendix: Transmission of Unconventional Monetary Policy
IB1 Theory
IB2 Policy
IB3 Evidence
IB4 Unwinding Strategy
IC United States Inflation
IC Long-term US Inflation
ID Current US Inflation
IE Theory and Reality of Economic History, Cyclical Slow Growth Not Secular Stagnation and Monetary Policy Based on Fear of Deflation
IIA United States Housing Collapse
IIB Unresolved US Balance of Payments Deficits and Fiscal Imbalance Threatening Risk Premium on Treasury Securities
III World Financial Turbulence
IIIA Financial Risks
IIIE Appendix Euro Zone Survival Risk
IIIF Appendix on Sovereign Bond Valuation
IV Global Inflation
V World Economic Slowdown
VA United States
VB Japan
VC China
VD Euro Area
VE Germany
VF France
VG Italy
VH United Kingdom
VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets
VII Economic Indicators
VIII Interest Rates
IX Conclusion
References
Appendixes
Appendix I The Great Inflation
IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies
IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact
IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort
IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis
IIIGA Monetary Policy with Deficit Financing of Economic Growth
IIIGB Adjustment during the Debt Crisis of the 1980s
VC China. China estimates an index of nonmanufacturing purchasing managers based on a sample of 1200 nonmanufacturing enterprises across the country (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Table CIPMNM provides this index and components. The total index increased from 55.7 in Jan 2011 to 58.0 in Mar 2012, decreasing to 53.9 in Aug 2013. The index decreased from 56.0 in Nov 2013 to 54.6 in Dec 2013, easing to 53.4 in Jan 2014. The index moved to 53.7 in Jan 2015. The index of new orders increased from 52.2 in Jan 2012 to 54.3 in Dec 2012 but fell to 50.1 in May 2013, barely above the neutral frontier of 50.0. The index of new orders stabilized at 51.0 in Nov-Dec 2013, easing to 50.9 in Jan 2014. The index of new orders moved to 50.2 in Jan 2015.
Table CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted
| Total Index | New Orders | Interm. | Subs Prices | Exp | |
| Jan 2015 | 53.7 | 50.2 | 47.6 | 46.9 | 59.6 |
| Dec 2014 | 54.1 | 50.5 | 50.1 | 47.3 | 59.5 |
| Nov | 53.9 | 50.1 | 50.6 | 47.7 | 59.7 |
| Oct | 53.8 | 51.0 | 52.0 | 48.8 | 59.9 |
| Sep | 54.0 | 49.5 | 49.8 | 47.3 | 60.9 |
| Aug | 54.4 | 50.0 | 52.2 | 48.3 | 61.2 |
| Jul | 54.2 | 50.7 | 53.4 | 49.5 | 61.5 |
| Jun | 55.0 | 50.7 | 56.0 | 50.8 | 60.4 |
| May | 55.5 | 52.7 | 54.5 | 49.0 | 60.7 |
| Apr | 54.8 | 50.8 | 52.4 | 49.4 | 61.5 |
| Mar | 54.5 | 50.8 | 52.8 | 49.5 | 61.5 |
| Feb | 55.0 | 51.4 | 52.1 | 49.0 | 59.9 |
| Jan | 53.4 | 50.9 | 54.5 | 50.1 | 58.1 |
| Dec 2013 | 54.6 | 51.0 | 56.9 | 52.0 | 58.7 |
| Nov | 56.0 | 51.0 | 54.8 | 49.5 | 61.3 |
| Oct | 56.3 | 51.6 | 56.1 | 51.4 | 60.5 |
| Sep | 55.4 | 53.4 | 56.7 | 50.6 | 60.1 |
| Aug | 53.9 | 50.9 | 57.1 | 51.2 | 62.9 |
| Jul | 54.1 | 50.3 | 58.2 | 52.4 | 63.9 |
| Jun | 53.9 | 50.3 | 55.0 | 50.6 | 61.8 |
| May | 54.3 | 50.1 | 54.4 | 50.7 | 62.9 |
| Apr | 54.5 | 50.9 | 51.1 | 47.6 | 62.5 |
| Mar | 55.6 | 52.0 | 55.3 | 50.0 | 62.4 |
| Feb | 54.5 | 51.8 | 56.2 | 51.1 | 62.7 |
| Jan | 56.2 | 53.7 | 58.2 | 50.9 | 61.4 |
| Dec 2012 | 56.1 | 54.3 | 53.8 | 50.0 | 64.6 |
| Nov | 55.6 | 53.2 | 52.5 | 48.4 | 64.6 |
| Oct | 55.5 | 51.6 | 58.1 | 50.5 | 63.4 |
| Sep | 53.7 | 51.8 | 57.5 | 51.3 | 60.9 |
| Aug | 56.3 | 52.7 | 57.6 | 51.2 | 63.2 |
| Jul | 55.6 | 53.2 | 49.7 | 48.7 | 63.9 |
| Jun | 56.7 | 53.7 | 52.1 | 48.6 | 65.5 |
| May | 55.2 | 52.5 | 53.6 | 48.5 | 65.4 |
| Apr | 56.1 | 52.7 | 57.9 | 50.3 | 66.1 |
| Mar | 58.0 | 53.5 | 60.2 | 52.0 | 66.6 |
| Feb | 57.3 | 52.7 | 59.0 | 51.2 | 63.8 |
| Jan | 55.7 | 52.2 | 58.2 | 51.1 | 65.3 |
Notes: Interm.: Intermediate; Subs: Subscription; Exp: Business Expectations
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Chart CIPMNM provides China’s nonmanufacturing purchasing managers’ index. The index fell from 56.0 in Oct 2013 to 53.7 in Jan 2015.
Chart CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english
Table CIPMMFG provides the index of purchasing managers of manufacturing seasonally adjusted of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The general index (IPM) rose from 50.5 in Jan 2012 to 53.3 in Apr 2012, falling to 49.2 in Aug 2012, rebounding to 50.6 in Dec 2012. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013, barely above the neutral frontier at 50.0, recovering to 51.4 in Nov 2013 but falling to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.5 in Jan 2014, 50.1 in Dec 2014 and 49.8 in Jan 2015. The index of new orders fell from 54.5 in Apr 2012 to 51.2 in Dec 2012. The index of new orders fell from 52.3 in Nov 2013 to 52.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.9 in Jan 2014 and moved to 50.4 in Dec 2014. The index moved to 50.2 in Jan 2015.
Table CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted
| IPM | PI | NOI | INV | EMP | SDEL | |
| 2015 | ||||||
| Jan | 49.8 | 51.7 | 50.2 | 47.3 | 47.9 | 50.2 |
| 2014 | ||||||
| Dec | 50.1 | 52.2 | 50.4 | 47.5 | 48.1 | 49.9 |
| Nov | 50.3 | 52.5 | 50.9 | 47.7 | 48.2 | 50.3 |
| Oct | 50.8 | 53.1 | 51.6 | 48.4 | 48.4 | 50.1 |
| Sep | 51.1 | 53.6 | 52.2 | 48.8 | 48.2 | 50.1 |
| Aug | 51.1 | 53.2 | 52.5 | 48.6 | 48.2 | 50.0 |
| Jul | 51.7 | 54.2 | 53.6 | 49.0 | 48.3 | 50.2 |
| Jun | 51.0 | 53.0 | 52.8 | 48.0 | 48.6 | 50.5 |
| May | 50.8 | 52.8 | 52.3 | 48.0 | 48.2 | 50.3 |
| Apr | 50.4 | 52.5 | 51.2 | 48.1 | 48.3 | 50.1 |
| Mar | 50.3 | 52.7 | 50.6 | 47.8 | 48.3 | 49.8 |
| Feb | 50.2 | 52.6 | 50.5 | 47.4 | 48.0 | 49.9 |
| Jan | 50.5 | 53.0 | 50.9 | 47.8 | 48.2 | 49.8 |
| Dec 2013 | 51.0 | 53.9 | 52.0 | 47.6 | 48.7 | 50.5 |
| Nov | 51.4 | 54.5 | 52.3 | 47.8 | 49.6 | 50.6 |
| Oct | 51.4 | 54.4 | 52.5 | 48.6 | 49.2 | 50.8 |
| Sep | 51.1 | 52.9 | 52.8 | 48.5 | 49.1 | 50.8 |
| Aug | 51.0 | 52.6 | 52.4 | 48.0 | 49.3 | 50.4 |
| Jul | 50.3 | 52.4 | 50.6 | 47.6 | 49.1 | 50.1 |
| Jun | 50.1 | 52.0 | 50.4 | 47.4 | 48.7 | 50.3 |
| May | 50.8 | 53.3 | 51.8 | 47.6 | 48.8 | 50.8 |
| Apr | 50.6 | 52.6 | 51.7 | 47.5 | 49.0 | 50.8 |
| Mar | 50.9 | 52.7 | 52.3 | 47.5 | 49.8 | 51.1 |
| Feb | 50.1 | 51.2 | 50.1 | 49.5 | 47.6 | 48.3 |
| Jan | 50.4 | 51.3 | 51.6 | 50.1 | 47.8 | 50.0 |
| Dec 2012 | 50.6 | 52.0 | 51.2 | 47.3 | 49.0 | 48.8 |
| Nov | 50.6 | 52.5 | 51.2 | 47.9 | 48.7 | 49.9 |
| Oct | 50.2 | 52.1 | 50.4 | 47.3 | 49.2 | 50.1 |
| Sep | 49.8 | 51.3 | 49.8 | 47.0 | 48.9 | 49.5 |
| Aug | 49.2 | 50.9 | 48.7 | 45.1 | 49.1 | 50.0 |
| Jul | 50.1 | 51.8 | 49.0 | 48.5 | 49.5 | 49.0 |
| Jun | 50.2 | 52.0 | 49.2 | 48.2 | 49.7 | 49.1 |
| May | 50.4 | 52.9 | 49.8 | 45.1 | 50.5 | 49.0 |
| Apr | 53.3 | 57.2 | 54.5 | 48.5 | 51.0 | 49.6 |
| Mar | 53.1 | 55.2 | 55.1 | 49.5 | 51.0 | 48.9 |
| Feb | 51.0 | 53.8 | 51.0 | 48.8 | 49.5 | 50.3 |
| Jan | 50.5 | 53.6 | 50.4 | 49.7 | 47.1 | 49.7 |
IPM: Index of Purchasing Managers; PI: Production Index; NOI: New Orders Index; EMP: Employed Person Index; SDEL: Supplier Delivery Time Index
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
China estimates the manufacturing index of purchasing managers on the basis of a sample of 820 enterprises (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Chart CIPMMFG provides the manufacturing index of purchasing managers. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013. The index decreased from 51.4 in Nov 2013 to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index moved to 49.8 in Jan 2015.
Chart CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Cumulative growth of China’s GDP in IVQ2014 relative to the same period in 2013 was 7.4 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDP. Secondary industry accounts for 42.6 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2014. In cumulative IVQ2014, industry accounts for 35.8 percent of GDP and construction for 7.0 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 48.2 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2014 and primary industry for 9.2 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is shifting to lower growth rates with improvement in living standards. The bottom block of Table VC-GDP provides quarter-on-quarter growth rates of GDP and their annual equivalent. China’s GDP growth decelerated significantly from annual equivalent 10.4 percent in IIQ2011 to 7.4 percent in IVQ2011 and 5.7 percent in IQ2012, rebounding to 8.7 percent in IIQ2012, 8.2 percent in IIIQ2012 and 7.8 percent in IVQ2012. Annual equivalent growth in IQ2013 fell to 7.0 percent and to 7.4 percent in IIQ2013, rebounding to 9.5 percent in IIIQ2013. Annual equivalent growth was 7.4 percent in IVQ2013, declining to 6.6 percent in IQ2014 and increasing to 7.8 percent in IIQ2014. Annual equivalent growth slowed to 7.8 percent in IIIQ2014 and 6.1 percent in IVQ2014.
Table VC-GDP, China, Quarterly Growth of GDP, Current CNY 100 Million and Inflation Adjusted ∆%
| Cumulative GDP IVQ2014 | Value Current CNY Billion | 2014 Year-on-Year Constant Prices ∆% |
| GDP | 63,646.3 | 7.4 |
| Primary Industry | 5833.2 | 4.1 |
| Farming | 6015.1 | 4.2 |
| Secondary Industry | 27,139.2 | 7.3 |
| Industry | 22,799.1 | 7.0 |
| Construction | 4472.5 | 8.9 |
| Tertiary Industry | 30,673.9 | 8.1 |
| Transport, Storage, Post | 2875.0 | 7.0 |
| Wholesale, Retail Trades | 6221.6 | 9.5 |
| Accommodation and Restaurants | 1119.9 | 6.2 |
| Finance | 4695.4 | 10.2 |
| Real Estate | 3816.7 | 2.3 |
| Other | 11631.1 | 8.8 |
| Growth in Quarter Relative to Prior Quarter | ∆% on Prior Quarter | ∆% Annual Equivalent |
| 2014 | ||
| IVQ2014 | 1.5 | 6.1 |
| IIIQ2014 | 1.9 | 7.8 |
| IIQ2014 | 1.9 | 7.8 |
| IQ2014 | 1.6 | 6.6 |
| 2013 | ||
| IVQ2013 | 1.8 | 7.4 |
| IIIQ2013 | 2.3 | 9.5 |
| IIQ2013 | 1.8 | 7.4 |
| IQ2013 | 1.7 | 7.0 |
| 2012 | ||
| IVQ2012 | 1.9 | 7.8 |
| IIIQ2012 | 2.0 | 8.2 |
| IIQ2012 | 2.1 | 8.7 |
| IQ2012 | 1.4 | 5.7 |
| 2011 | ||
| IVQ2011 | 1.8 | 7.4 |
| IIIQ2011 | 2.2 | 9.1 |
| IIQ2011 | 2.5 | 10.4 |
| IQ2011 | 2.3 | 9.5 |
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Growth of China’s GDP in IVQ2014 relative to the same period in 2013 was 7.3 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDPA. Secondary industry accounts for 42.6 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2014. In cumulative IVQ2014, industry accounts for 35.8 percent of GDP and construction for 7.0 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 48.2 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2014 and primary industry for 9.2 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is changing to lower growth rates while improving living standards. GDP growth decelerated from 12.1 percent in IQ2010 and 11.2 percent in IIQ2010 to 7.8 percent in IQ2013, 7.5 percent in IIQ2013 and 7.9 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP grew 7.6 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to IIIQ2013, which is equivalent to 7.4 percent per year. GDP grew 7.4 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.6 percent in IQ2014 that is equivalent to 6.6 percent per year. GP grew 7.5 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.9 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is equivalent 7.8 percent. In IIIQ2014, GDP grew 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier and 1.9 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is 7.8 percent in annual equivalent. GDP grew 1.5 percent in IVQ2014, which is 6.1 percent in annual equivalent and 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier.
Table VC-GDPA, China, Growth Rate of GDP, ∆% Relative to a Year Earlier and ∆% Relative to Prior Quarter
| IQ 2013 | IIQ 2013 | IIIQ 2013 | IVQ 2013 | IQ 2014 | IIQ 2014 | IIIQ 2014 | IVQ 2014 | |
| GDP | 7.8 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 7.3 |
| Primary Industry | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.1 |
| Secondary Industry | 7.8 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.3 |
| Tertiary Industry | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 8.1 |
| GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| IQ 2011 | IIQ 2011 | IIIQ 2011 | IVQ 2011 | IQ 2012 | IIQ 2012 | IIIQ 2012 | IVQ 2012 | |
| GDP | 9.7 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 7.9 |
| Primary Industry | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.5 |
| Secondary Industry | 11.1 | 11.0 | 10.8 | 10.6 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 8.1 |
| Tertiary Industry | 9.1 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 8.1 |
| GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| IQ 2010 | IIQ 2010 | IIIQ 2010 | IVQ 2010 | |||||
| GDP | 12.1 | 11.2 | 10.7 | 12.1 | ||||
| Primary Industry | 3.8 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 3.8 | ||||
| Secondary Industry | 14.5 | 13.3 | 12.6 | 14.5 | ||||
| Tertiary Industry | 10.5 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 10.5 |
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Chart VC-GDP of the National Bureau of Statistics of China provides annual value and growth rates of GDP. China’s GDP growth in 2013 is still high at 7.7 percent but at the lowest rhythm in five years.
Chart VC-GDP, China, Gross Domestic Product, Million Yuan and ∆%, 2009-2013
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Chart VC-FXR provides China’s foreign exchange reserves. FX reserves grew from $2399.2 billion in 2009 to $3821.3 billion in 2013 driven by high growth of China’s trade surplus.
Chart VC-FXR, China, Foreign Exchange Reserves, 2009-2013
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english
Chart VC-Trade provides China’s imports and exports. Exports exceeded imports with resulting large trade balance surpluses that increased foreign exchange reserves.
Chart VC-Trade, China, Imports and Exports of Goods, 2009-2013, $100 Million US Dollars
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english
The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) compiled by Markit (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b2a890cba4664da9ad061ff1a23ec780) is improving. The overall Flash HSBC China Manufacturing PMI™ increased from 49.6 in Dec to 49.8 in Jan, while the Flash HSBC China Manufacturing Output Index increased from 49.9 in Dec to 50.1 in Dec, indicating moderate growth. Exports orders indicate expansion at slower rate. Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds need for monetary/fiscal stimulus (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b2a890cba4664da9ad061ff1a23ec780). The HSBC China Services PMI™, compiled by Markit, shows the HSBC Composite Output, combining manufacturing and services, decreasing from 51.4 in Dec to 51.0 in Jan (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/7b9ad608264c4ac4b19ccf5aa289da44). Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds need of easing policies in consolidating growth (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/7b9ad608264c4ac4b19ccf5aa289da44). The HSBC China Services Business Activity index decreased from 53.4 in Dec to 51.8 in Jan (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/7b9ad608264c4ac4b19ccf5aa289da44). Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds that the services PMI shows sustained activity at slower pace (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/7b9ad608264c4ac4b19ccf5aa289da44). The HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™), compiled by Markit, increased to 49.7 in Jan from 49.6 in Dec, indicating near neutral manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/957ace7aa01b4f878c48ea65443be5ea). New export orders slowed. Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds weakening demand in China with possible need of monetary and fiscal policy enhancement (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/957ace7aa01b4f878c48ea65443be5ea). Table CNY provides the country data table for China.
Table CNY, China, Economic Indicators
| Price Indexes for Industry | Jan 12-month ∆%: minus 4.3 Jan month ∆%: -1.1 |
| Consumer Price Index | Jan month ∆%: 0.3 Jan 12 months ∆%: 0.8 |
| Value Added of Industry | Dec month ∆%: 0.75 Jan-Dec 2014/Jan-Dec 2013 ∆%: 8.3 |
| GDP Growth Rate | Year IVQ2014 ∆%: 7.3 First Four Quarters 2014 ∆%: 7.4 |
| Investment in Fixed Assets | Total Jan-Dec 2014 ∆%: 15.7 Real estate development: 10.5 |
| Retail Sales | Dec month ∆%: 1.01 Jan-Dec ∆%: 12.0 |
| Trade Balance | Jan balance $60.0 billion Cumulative Jan 2015: $60.0 billion |
Links to blog comments in Table CNY:
2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html
1/25/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/01/competitive-currency-conflicts-world.html
VD Euro Area. Table VD-EUR provides yearly growth rates of the combined GDP of the members of the European Monetary Union (EMU) or euro area since 1996. Growth was very strong at 3.3 percent in 2006 and 3.0 percent in 2007. The global recession had strong impact with growth of only 0.4 percent in 2008 and decline of 4.4 percent in 2009. Recovery was at lower growth rates of 2.0 percent in 2010 and 1.6 percent in 2011. EUROSTAT estimates growth of GDP of the euro area of minus 0.7 percent in 2012 and minus 0.4 percent in 2013 but 1.1 percent in 2014 and 1.7 percent in 2015.
Table VD-EUR, Euro Area, Yearly Percentage Change of Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, Unemployment and GDP ∆%
| Year | HICP ∆% | Unemployment | GDP ∆% |
| 1999 | 1.2 | 9.6 | 2.9 |
| 2000 | 2.2 | 8.8 | 3.8 |
| 2001 | 2.4 | 8.2 | 2.0 |
| 2002 | 2.3 | 8.5 | 0.9 |
| 2003 | 2.1 | 9.0 | 0.7 |
| 2004 | 2.2 | 9.2 | 2.2 |
| 2005 | 2.2 | 9.1 | 1.7 |
| 2006 | 2.2 | 8.4 | 3.3 |
| 2007 | 2.2 | 7.5 | 3.0 |
| 2008 | 3.3 | 7.6 | 0.4 |
| 2009 | 0.3 | 9.6 | -4.5 |
| 2010 | 1.6 | 10.1 | 1.9 |
| 2011 | 2.7 | 10.1 | 1.6 |
| 2012 | 2.5 | 11.3 | -0.7 |
| 2013* | 1.3 | 12.0 | -0.4 |
| 2014* | 1.1 | ||
| 2015* | 1.7 |
*EUROSTAT forecast Source: EUROSTAT
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database
The GDP of the euro area in 2012 in current US dollars in the dataset of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is $12,199.1 billion or 16.9 percent of world GDP of $72,216.4 billion (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/02/weodata/index.aspx). The sum of the GDP of France $2613.9 billion with the GDP of Germany of $3429.5 billion, Italy of $2014.1 billion and Spain $1323.5 billion is $9381.0 billion or 76.9 percent of total euro area GDP and 13.0 percent of World GDP. The four largest economies account for slightly more than three quarters of economic activity of the euro area. Table VD-EUR1 is constructed with the dataset of EUROSTAT, providing growth rates of the euro area as a whole and of the largest four economies of Germany, France, Italy and Spain annually from 1996 to 2011 with the estimate of 2012 and forecasts for 2013, 2014 and 2015 by EUROSTAT. The impact of the global recession on the overall euro area economy and on the four largest economies was quite strong. There was sharp contraction in 2009 and growth rates have not rebounded to earlier growth with exception of Germany in 2010 and 2011.
Table VD-EUR1, Euro Area, Real GDP Growth Rate, ∆%
| Euro Area | Germany | France | Italy | Spain | |
| 2015* | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| 2014* | 1.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 2013* | -0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | -1.9 | -1.2 |
| 2012 | -0.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | -2.4 | -1.6 |
| 2011 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2010 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | -0.2 |
| 2009 | -4.5 | -5.1 | -3.1 | -5.5 | -3.8 |
| 2008 | 0.4 | 1.1 | -0.1 | -1.2 | 0.9 |
| 2007 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 3.5 |
| 2006 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 4.1 |
| 2005 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 3.6 |
| 2004 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 3.3 |
| 2003 | 0.7 | -0.4 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 3.1 |
| 2002 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 2.7 |
| 2001 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 3.7 |
| 2000 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 5.0 |
| 1999 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 4.7 |
| 1998 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 4.5 |
| 1997 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 3.9 |
| 1996 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 2.5 |
Source: EUROSTAT
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database
The Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index of the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI®, combining activity in manufacturing and services, increased from 52.6 in Jan to 53.5 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/be007dfe9a364164b10392d0572ffcf2). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds that the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI index suggests GDP growth at around 0.3 percent in IQ2015 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/be007dfe9a364164b10392d0572ffcf2). The Markit Eurozone PMI® Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing activity with close association with GDP increased from 51.4 in Dec to 52.6 in Jan (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/9ca7fcbe048340c7ae60a02626922ff1). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds slowing growth of GDP at around 0.3 percent in IQ2015 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/9ca7fcbe048340c7ae60a02626922ff1). The Markit Eurozone Services Business Activity Index increased from 51.6 in Dec to 52.7 in Jan (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/9ca7fcbe048340c7ae60a02626922ff1). The Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI® increased to 51.0 in Jan from 50.6 in Dec (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/3300af07e7f240a492f4b407a4715d61). New export orders are weak. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds modest improvement of industrial growth in the euro area (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/3300af07e7f240a492f4b407a4715d61). Table EUR provides the data table for the euro area.
Table EUR, Euro Area Economic Indicators
| GDP | IVQ2014 ∆% 0.3; IVQ2014/IVQ2013 ∆% 0.9 Blog 2/15/15 |
| Unemployment | Dec 2014: 11.4 % unemployment rate; Dec 2014: 18.129 million unemployed Blog 2/1/15 |
| HICP | Jan month ∆%: -1.6 12 months Jan ∆%: -0.6 |
| Producer Prices | Euro Zone industrial producer prices Dec ∆%: -1.0 |
| Industrial Production | Dec month ∆%: 0.0; Dec 12 months ∆%: -0.2 |
| Retail Sales | Dec month ∆%: 0.3 |
| Confidence and Economic Sentiment Indicator | Sentiment 102.1 Feb 2015 Consumer minus 6.7 Feb 2015 Blog 3/1/15 |
| Trade | Jan-Dec 2014/Jan-Dec 2013 Exports ∆%: 2.4 Dec 2014 12-month Exports ∆% 8.0 Imports ∆% 1.0 |
Links to blog comments in Table EUR:
2/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html
2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html
2/8/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/job-creation-and-monetary-policy-twenty.html
2/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html
The Economic Sentiment Indicator of the European Economic Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs, provides correlation with the economic cycle since 1990, capturing all three recessions in the period and even the threat of recession from 1994 to 1995. The latest chart of this index accessible in the link in parenthesis shows trend of decline in 2011 and 2012 that has punctured the historical average of 100 and resumed downward trend in 2012 followed by recovery moving closer to the average (http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/index_en.htm). Table VD-1 provides the index increasing from 102.5 in Mar 2014 to 102.1 in Feb 2015. The index is above the minimum value of 69.4 reached in Mar 2009, close to the average of 100.
Table VD-1, Euro Area, Indicators of Confidence and Economic Sentiment SA
| ESI | IND | SERV | CON | RET | CONS | |
| Historical Average | 100.0 | -6.9 | 8.9 | -13.1 | -9.0 | -18.5 |
| Maximum | 118.9 | 7.9 | 35.4 | 2.4 | 5.2 | 6.0 |
| Minimum | 69.4 | -38.1 | -26.1 | -34.4 | -24.8 | -46.0 |
| Feb 2015 | 102.1 | -4.7 | 4.5 | -6.7 | -2.1 | -26.5 |
| Jan | 101.4 | -4.8 | 4.8 | -8.5 | -3.6 | -26.5 |
| Dec 2014 | 100.6 | -5.2 | 5.6 | -10.9 | -5.2 | -25.2 |
| Nov | 100.7 | -4.3 | 4.4 | -11.6 | -5.9 | -26.1 |
| Oct | 100.7 | -5.0 | 4.4 | -11.1 | -6.3 | -24.4 |
| Sep | 99.9 | -5.5 | 3.2 | -11.4 | -7.2 | -27.4 |
| Aug | 100.5 | -5.2 | 3.1 | -10.1 | -4.5 | -28.1 |
| Jul | 102.1 | -3.8 | 3.6 | -8.3 | -2.2 | -27.9 |
| Jun | 102.1 | -4.3 | 4.4 | -7.5 | -1.8 | -31.3 |
| May | 102.6 | -3.1 | 3.8 | -7.1 | -2.4 | -29.7 |
| Apr | 102.0 | -3.4 | 3.5 | -8.6 | -2.5 | -29.9 |
| Mar | 102.5 | -3.3 | 4.4 | -9.3 | -2.6 | -28.3 |
ESI: Economic Sentiment Index; IND: Industry; SERV: Services; CON: Consumer; RET: Retail Trade; CONS: Construction
Source: European Commission Services
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/index_en.htm
VE Germany. Table VE-DE provides yearly growth rates of the German economy from 1971 to 2014, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked. Germany’s GDP fell 5.6 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.1 percent in 2008. Recovery has been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.1 percent in 2010, 3.6 percent in 2011 and 0.4 percent in 2012. Growth decelerated to 0.1 percent in 2013, increasing to 1.6 percent in 2014.
The Federal Statistical Agency of Germany analyzes the fall and recovery of the German economy (http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Content/Statistics/VolkswirtschaftlicheGesamtrechnungen/Inlandsprodukt/Aktuell,templateId=renderPrint.psml):
“The German economy again grew strongly in 2011. The price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.0% compared with the previous year. Accordingly, the catching-up process of the German economy continued during the second year after the economic crisis. In the course of 2011, the price-adjusted GDP again exceeded its pre-crisis level. The economic recovery occurred mainly in the first half of 2011. In 2009, Germany experienced the most serious post-war recession, when GDP suffered a historic decline of 5.1%. The year 2010 was characterised by a rapid economic recovery (+3.7%).”
Table VE-DE, Germany, GDP ∆% on Prior Year
| Price Adjusted Chain-Linked | Price- and Calendar-Adjusted Chain Linked | |
| Average ∆% 1991-2014 | 1.3 | |
| Average ∆% 1991-1999 | 1.5 | |
| Average ∆% 2000-2007 | 1.4 | |
| Average ∆% 2003-2007 | 2.2 | |
| Average ∆% 2007-2014 | 0.7 | |
| Average ∆% 2009-2014 | 1.9 | |
| 2014 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 2013 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| 2012 | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| 2011 | 3.6 | 3.7 |
| 2010 | 4.1 | 3.9 |
| 2009 | -5.6 | -5.6 |
| 2008 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 2007 | 3.3 | 3.4 |
| 2006 | 3.7 | 3.9 |
| 2005 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| 2004 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 2003 | -0.7 | -0.7 |
| 2002 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2001 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| 2000 | 3.0 | 3.2 |
| 1999 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| 1998 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| 1997 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| 1996 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 1995 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| 1994 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| 1993 | -1.0 | -1.0 |
| 1992 | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| 1991 | 5.1 | 5.2 |
| 1990 | 5.3 | 5.5 |
| 1989 | 3.9 | 4.0 |
| 1988 | 3.7 | 3.4 |
| 1987 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| 1986 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1985 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1984 | 2.8 | 2.9 |
| 1983 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| 1982 | -0.4 | -0.5 |
| 1981 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| 1980 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| 1979 | 4.2 | 4.3 |
| 1978 | 3.0 | 3.1 |
| 1977 | 3.3 | 3.5 |
| 1976 | 4.9 | 4.5 |
| 1975 | -0.9 | -0.9 |
| 1974 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| 1973 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| 1972 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| 1971 | 3.1 | 3.0 |
| 1970 | NA | NA |
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/02/PE14_048_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/08/PE13_278_811.html https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/11/PE13_381_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/01/PE14_016_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/05/PE14_167_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/09/PE14_306_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/11/PE14_401_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_048_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_61_811.html
The Flash Germany Composite Output Index of the Markit Flash Germany PMI®, combining manufacturing and services, increased from 53.5 in Jan to 54.3 in Feb. The index of manufacturing output reached 52.0 in Feb, decreasing from 52.3 in Jan, while the index of services increased to 55.5 in Feb from 54.0 in Jan. The overall Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI® did not change from 50.9 in Jan to 50.9 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/54a10c0e6ce14dfbb978cdc2ae5b1d92). New orders in manufacturing expanded. Oliver Kolodseike, Economist at Markit, finds improving GDP growth (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/54a10c0e6ce14dfbb978cdc2ae5b1d92). The Markit Germany Composite Output Index of the Markit Germany Services PMI®, combining manufacturing and services with close association with Germany’s GDP, increased from 52.0 in Dec to 53.5 in Jan (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4439591371004e5b81a173ab5a27e9dd). Oliver Kolodseike, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds improvement in 2015 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4439591371004e5b81a173ab5a27e9dd). The Germany Services Business Activity Index increased from 52.1 in Dec to 53.5 in Jan (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4439591371004e5b81a173ab5a27e9dd). The Markit/BME Germany Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®), showing close association with Germany’s manufacturing conditions, decreased from 51.2 in Dec to 50.9 in Jan (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d01543f85bbb4426968a22857f762717). New export orders decreased. Oliver Kolodseike, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds improvement of manufacturing still at a low level (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d01543f85bbb4426968a22857f762717).Table DE provides the country data table for Germany.
Table DE, Germany, Economic Indicators
| GDP | IVQ2014 0.7 ∆%; IV/Q2014/IVQ2013 ∆% 1.6 2014/2013: 1.6% GDP ∆% 1970-2014 Blog 8/26/12 5/27/12 11/25/12 2/24/13 5/19/13 5/26/13 8/18/13 8/25/13 11/17/13 11/24/13 1/26/14 2/16/14 3/2/14 5/18/14 5/25/14 8/17/14 9/7/14 11/16/14 11/30/14 2/15/15 3/1/15 |
| Consumer Price Index | Jan month NSA ∆%: -1.1 |
| Producer Price Index | Jan month ∆%: -0.6 NSA, minus 0.5 CSA |
| Industrial Production | MFG Dec month CSA ∆%: 0.5 |
| Machine Orders | MFG Dec month ∆%: 4.2 |
| Retail Sales | Dec Month ∆% 0.2 12-Month ∆% 4.0 Blog 2/1/15 |
| Employment Report | Unemployment Rate SA Jan 4.7% |
| Trade Balance | Exports Dec 12-month NSA ∆%: 10.0 Blog 2/15/15 |
Links to blog comments in Table DE:
2/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html
2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html
2/8/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/job-creation-and-monetary-policy-twenty.html
2/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html
11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html
11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html
9/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/competitive-monetary-policy-and.html
8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html
5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html
5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html
3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html
2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html
1/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/01/capital-flows-exchange-rates-and.html
11/24/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html
11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html
8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html
8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html
Table VE-1 provides percentage change of Germany’s GDP in one quarter relative to the prior quarter from 2001 to 2014. Germany’s GDP contracted during four consecutive quarters from IIQ2008 to IQ2009. The deepest contraction was 4.5 percent in IQ2009. Growth was quite strong from IIIQ2009 to IQ2011 for cumulative growth of 7.8 percent in seven quarters or at the average rate of 1.1 percent per quarter, which is equivalent to 4.4 percent per year. Economic growth decelerated in IIQ2011 to 0.2 percent and 0.4 percent in IIIQ2011. The economy grew 0.0 percent in IVQ2011 and grew 0.3 percent in IQ2012 but at 0.1 percent in IIQ2012. GDP growth in IIIQ2012 was 0.1 percent relative to IIQ2012. Germany’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IIIQ2012. GDP decreased 0.4 percent in IQ2013 and increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2013. Growth of GDP was 0.3 percent in IIIQ2013 and 0.4 percent in IVQ2013. Germany’s growth was robust at 0.8 percent in IQ2014 or 3.2 percent in annual equivalent. GDP contracted 0.1 percent in IIQ2014. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014. The GDP of Germany increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2014. Using seasonally and calendar adjusted data (https://www.destatis.de/EN/Publications/Specialized/Nationalaccounts/NationalAccounts.html), Germany’s GDP contracted 6.9 percent from IQ2008 to IQ2009. GDP grew 11.6 percent from IQ2009 to IVQ2014 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.9 percent. GDP grew 3.9 percent from IQ2008 to IVQ2014 at the annual equivalent rate of 0.7 percent.
Table VE-1, Germany Quarter GDP ∆% Relative to Prior Quarter, Seasonally and Calendar Adjusted
| IQ | IIQ | IIIQ | IV | |
| 2014 | 0.8 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.7 |
| 2013 | -0.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| 2012 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.4 |
| 2011 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 2010 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 2009 | -4.5 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.9 |
| 2008 | 0.8 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -2.0 |
| 2007 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2006 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| 2005 | -0.2 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2004 | 0.0 | 0.4 | -0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2003 | -1.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 2002 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.2 |
| 2001 | 1.6 | 0.1 | -0.3 | 0.2 |
Seasonal and calendar adjusted Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_61_811.html
Table VE-2 provides percentage changes of Germany’s GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Growth was weak in the recovery from the recession of 2001 through 2005, as in most of the euro area (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 116-46). Germany’s economy then grew robustly in 2006 and 2007 until the global recession after 2007. Germany recovered with strong growth in 2010 and vigorous 6.0 percent in IQ2011. The economy decelerated in the final three quarters of 2011, growing 1.5 percent in IQ2012 relative to IQ2011. Growth decelerated further to 0.3 percent in IIQ2012 without calendar adjustment and 0.8 percent with calendar adjustment and to 0.1 percent in IIIQ2012. Growth in IVQ2012 relative to IVQ2011 was minus 0.3 percent. GDP fell 1.8 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIIQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 1.0 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 2.6 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.0 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.2 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.6 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier.
Table VE-2, Germany, Quarter GDP ∆% Relative to Same Quarter a Year Earlier, Price Adjusted NCSA
| IQ | IIQ | IIIQ | IV | |
| 2014 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 2013 | -1.8 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 2012 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | -0.3 |
| 2011 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 |
| 2010 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.4 |
| 2009 | -6.6 | -7.9 | -5.6 | -2.4 |
| 2008 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | -1.9 |
| 2007 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 2.1 |
| 2006 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 4.6 |
| 2005 | -0.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| 2004 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| 2003 | -0.4 | -1.3 | -0.8 | -0.3 |
| 2002 | -1.1 | 0.2 | 1.1 | -0.1 |
| 2001 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Price adjusted NSA Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_61_811.html
There are strong calendar effects in economic activity in Germany. Table VE-3 provides Germany’s percentage change in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier adjusting for price changes and calendar effects. Germany’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2012 calendar-adjusted in contrast with only 0.3 percent without calendar adjustment. GDP growth adjusting for calendar effects was 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012 relative to IIIQ2011 and 0.1 percent without calendar adjustment. Growth in IVQ2012 was 0.0 percent calendar and price adjusted in contrast with minus 0.3 percent without calendar adjustment. Growth in IQ2013 was minus 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier with adjustment for calendar effects and minus 1.8 percent without adjustment. GDP without calendar adjustment increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 0.0 percent with calendar adjustment. In IIIQ2013, growth without calendar adjustment was 0.8 percent in contrast with 0.3 percent calendar adjusted. In IVQ2013, GDP with calendar adjustment increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier and 1.0 percent without calendar adjustment. In IQ2014, GDP increased 2.6 percent without calendar adjustment and 2.4 percent with calendar adjustment. GDP increased 1.4 percent in IIQ2014 with calendar adjustment and 1.0 percent without calendar adjustment. GDP increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier in IIIQ2014 without calendar adjustment and 1.2 percent with calendar adjustment. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier without calendar adjustment and 1.4 percent with calendar adjustment.
Table VE-3, Germany, Quarter GDP ∆% Relative to Same Quarter a Year Earlier, Calendar and Price Adjusted NSA
| IQ | IIQ | IIIQ | IV | |
| 2014 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 2013 | -0.5 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.1 |
| 2012 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 2011 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 2.3 |
| 2010 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.3 |
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_61_811.html
Table VE-4 provides annual growth rates of the German economy from 1971 to 2014, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked. Germany’s GDP fell 5.6 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.1 percent in 2008. Recovery has been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.1 percent in 2010, 3.6 percent in 2011 and 0.4 percent in 2012. Growth in 2013 was 0.1 percent. Germany’s GDP increased 1.6 percent in 2014.
Table VE-4, Germany, GDP ∆% on Prior Year
| Price Adjusted Chain-Linked | Price- and Calendar-Adjusted Chain Linked | |
| Average ∆% 1991-2014 | 1.3 | |
| Average ∆% 1991-1999 | 1.5 | |
| Average ∆% 2000-2007 | 1.4 | |
| Average ∆% 2003-2007 | 2.2 | |
| Average ∆% 2007-2014 | 0.7 | |
| Average ∆% 2009-2014 | 1.9 | |
| 2014 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 2013 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| 2012 | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| 2011 | 3.6 | 3.7 |
| 2010 | 4.1 | 3.9 |
| 2009 | -5.6 | -5.6 |
| 2008 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 2007 | 3.3 | 3.4 |
| 2006 | 3.7 | 3.9 |
| 2005 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| 2004 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 2003 | -0.7 | -0.7 |
| 2002 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2001 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| 2000 | 3.0 | 3.2 |
| 1999 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| 1998 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| 1997 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| 1996 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 1995 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| 1994 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| 1993 | -1.0 | -1.0 |
| 1992 | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| 1991 | 5.1 | 5.2 |
| 1990 | 5.3 | 5.5 |
| 1989 | 3.9 | 4.0 |
| 1988 | 3.7 | 3.4 |
| 1987 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| 1986 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1985 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1984 | 2.8 | 2.9 |
| 1983 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| 1982 | -0.4 | -0.5 |
| 1981 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| 1980 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| 1979 | 4.2 | 4.3 |
| 1978 | 3.0 | 3.1 |
| 1977 | 3.3 | 3.5 |
| 1976 | 4.9 | 4.5 |
| 1975 | -0.9 | -0.9 |
| 1974 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| 1973 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| 1972 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| 1971 | 3.1 | 3.0 |
| 1970 | NA | NA |
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/02/PE14_048_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/08/PE13_278_811.html https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/11/PE13_381_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/01/PE14_016_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/05/PE14_167_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/09/PE14_306_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/11/PE14_401_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_048_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_61_811.html
Chart VE-1 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Federal Statistics Agency of Germany) provides GDP at current prices from 2005 to 2014. The German economy is productive with significant dynamism over the long term. There are fluctuations in an increasing trend since 2009. Growth is oscillating.
Chart VE-1, Germany, GDP, Current Prices, Billion Euro
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)
https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html
Chart VE-1A provides US GDP in current prices at seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) from 2005 to 2014. There is sharp decline with the recession beginning in IVQ2007 and upward trend during the expansion after IIIQ2009.
Chart VE-1A, US, Gross Domestic Product, Current Prices, Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates, Billions of Dollars, 2005-2014
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis
http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm
Chart VE-2 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Federal Statistics Agency of Germany) provides the index of price-adjusted chain-linked GDP of Germany from 2009 to 2014. Germany was growing rapidly before the global contraction and rebounded with significant strength along a strong upward trend that could be increasing again.
Chart VE-2, Germany, Gross Domestic Product Price Adjusted, Trend and Trend Ends
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)
https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html
Chart VE-2A provides US real GDP, seasonally adjusted at annual rates (SAAR) in billions of chained dollars of 2009 from 2010 to 2014.
Chart VE-2A, US, Real Gross Domestic Product, Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates, Billions of Chained 2009 Dollars, 2010-2014
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm
The Statistisches Bundesamt (Federal Statistical Office of Germany) provides the analysis of percentage point contributions to GDP on growth from a quarter a year earlier, shown in Table VE-5. The original data are adjusted for price but not for seasonality. There is strong internal demand, or consumption and investment, which is uncommon in advanced economies. Consumption added 1.3 percentage points in IVQ2014. Growth of fixed capital formation (GFCF) added 0.4 percentage points to growth of GDP in IVQ2014. Domestic uses added 0.9 percentage points in IVQ2014. Net exports added 0.7 percentage points in IVQ2014. The rates of growth of exports and imports fell from over 10 percent to single digits. Exports grew 4.7 percent in IVQ2014 relative to the same quarter a year earlier and imports 3.7 percent.
Table VE-5, Germany, Percentage Point Contributions of Use of Gross Domestic Product on Growth from Same Year and Same Quarter of Prior Year, Price Adjusted
| IQ14 PP | ∆% IQ 14 | IIQ 14 PP | ∆% | IIIQ 14 PP | ∆% III 14 | IVQ 14 PP | ∆% IVQ 14 | |
| Consumption | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Household Consumption | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Government | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 1.5 |
| Gross Capital Formation | 1.7 | 8.4 | 0.5 | 2.8 | -0.5 | -2.2 | -0.4 | -2.3 |
| Gross Fixed | 1.6 | 9.1 | 0.4 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 1.8 |
| GFCF in | 0.4 | 7.9 | 0.2 | 3.6 | 0.3 | 4.1 | 0.2 | 2.4 |
| GFCF in Construction | 1.1 | 13.2 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 1.8 |
| Change in Inventories | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.8 | -0.8 | ||||
| Domestic Uses | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Net Exports | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | ||||
| Exports | 3.9 | 2.2 | 4.6 | 4.7 | ||||
| Imports | 3.6 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.7 | ||||
| GDP | 2.6 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.6 | ||||
| GDP per Person in Employment | 1.9 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | ||||
| GDP per Hour Worked | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | -0.1 |
PP: Percentage Points
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_61_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/Publications/Specialized/Nationalaccounts/NationalAccounts.html
Table VE-6 provides segments of Germany’s GDP with growth in IVQ2014 and contributions to growth in percentage points. The improvement of growth of GDP in IVQ2014 consisted of contributioin of 0.5 percentage points by total consumption of which 0.4 percentage points by household consumption. Net exports added 0.2 percentage points. Exports grew 1.3 percent in IVQ2014 and imports 1.0 percent. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) contributed 0.2 percentage points mostly from GFCF in construction contributing 0.2 percentage points. Inventory change deducted 0.2 percentage points. Domestic uses contributed 0.5 percentage points.
Table VE-6, Germany, Percentage Point Contributions of Use of Gross Domestic Product on Growth from Prior Quarter, Price Adjusted
| IQ14 PP | ∆% IQ 14 | IIQ 14 PP | ∆% | IIIQ 13 PP | ∆% IIIQ 13 | IVQ 14 PP | ∆% IVQ 14 | |
| Consumption | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Household Consumption | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Government | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Gross Capital Formation | 0.5 | 2.3 | -0.2 | -0.8 | -0.9 | -4.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Gross Fixed | 0.6 | 3.0 | -0.4 | -1.7 | -0.2 | -1.2 | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| GFCF in | 0.1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | -0.1 | -1.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| GFCF in Construction | 0.5 | 4.5 | -0.4 | -3.7 | -0.2 | -1.5 | 0.2 | 2.1 |
| Change in Inventories | -0.2 | 0.2 | -0.6 | -0.2 | ||||
| Domestic Uses | 0.8 | 0.9 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Net Exports | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | ||||
| Exports | -0.4 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | ||||
| Imports | -0.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.0 | ||||
| GDP | 0.8 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.7 | ||||
| GDP per Person in Employment | 0.5 | -0.4 | -0.1 | 0.5 | ||||
| GDP per Hour Worked | -0.6 | 0.1 | -0.2 | 0.6 |
PP: Percentage Points
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_61_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/Publications/Specialized/Nationalaccounts/NationalAccounts.html
Percentage changes from year earlier of gross value added by economic sectors in Germany are in Table VE-7. Industry ex construction grew 0.8 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. Business services increased 2.5 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. Construction increased 2.5 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. Total gross value added expanded 1.3 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier.
Table VE-7, Germany, Percentage Change from Year Earlier of Gross Value Added by Economic Sector, Price Adjusted NSA
| 2014 | IQ2014 | II2014 | III2014 | IVQ2014 | |
| Agriculture | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 4.7 |
| Industry ex | 1.4 | 3.3 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Manufacturing | 2.2 | 4.6 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| Construction | 3.7 | 11.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 2.5 |
| Trade, Transport, Accommodation & Food Services | 1.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Information & Communications | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.7 |
| Finance & Insurance | -0.6 | 0.1 | -0.4 | -1.4 | -0.6 |
| Real Estate | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| Business Services | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| Public Services, Education & Health | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Other Services | 0.6 | 0.8 | -0.3 | 0.6 | -1.1 |
| Total Gross Value Added | 1.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_61_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/Publications/Specialized/Nationalaccounts/NationalAccounts.html
Table VE-8 provides the savings as percent of disposable income and percentage growth of disposable income year-on-year from 2010 to 2014. The savings ratio remained at a relatively high level for an advanced economy, exceeding 9.0 percent from 2010 to 2013. The savings ratio increased to 12.6 percent in IQ2014 and fell to 8.9 percent in IIQ2014, 8.0 percent in IIIQ2014 and 8.1 percent in IVQ2014. The year on year growth rate of disposable income increased from 2.2 percent in IQ2014 to 3.2 percent in IVQ2014.
Table VE-8, Germany, Savings as Percent of Disposable Income and Yearly Change of Disposable Income, % and ∆%
| Savings as % Percent of Disposable Income | Year on Year ∆% of Disposable Income | |
| IVQ2014 | 8.1 | 3.2 |
| IIIQ2014 | 8.0 | 2.3 |
| IIQ2014 | 8.9 | 2.1 |
| IQ2014 | 12.6 | 2.2 |
| 2014 | 9.4 | 2.4 |
| 2013 | 9.1 | 1.7 |
| 2012 | 9.4 | 2.0 |
| 2011 | 9.6 | 3.8 |
| 2010 | 9.9 | 2.6 |
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_61_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/Publications/Specialized/Nationalaccounts/NationalAccounts.html
Chart IB-14A provides the US personal savings rate, or personal savings as percent of disposable personal income, on an annual basis from 1929 to 2013. The US savings rate shows decline from around 10 percent in the 1960s to around 5 percent currently.
Chart IB-14A, US, Personal Savings as a Percentage of Disposable Personal Income, Annual, 1929-2014
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm
Table IB-7 provides personal savings as percent of disposable income and annual change of real disposable personal income in selected years since 1930. Savings fell from 4.4 percent of disposable personal income in 1930 to minus 0.8 percent in 1933 while real disposable income contracted 6.3 percent in 1930 and 2.9 percent in 1933. Savings as percent of disposable personal income swelled during World War II to 27.9 percent in 1944 with increase of real disposable income of 3.1 percent. Savings as percent of personal disposable income fell steadily over decades from 11.5 percent in 1982 to 2.5 percent in 2005. Savings as percent of disposable personal income was 4.9 percent in 2013 while real disposable income fell 0.2 percent. The savings rate was 4.8 percent of GDP in 2014 with growth of real disposable income of 2.4 percent. The average ratio of savings as percent of disposable income fell from 9.3 percent 1980 to 1989 to 5.3 percent on average from 2007 to 2014. Real disposable income grew on average at 3.5 percent from 1980 to 1989 and at 1.5 percent on average from 2007 to 2014.
Table IB-7, US, Personal Savings as Percent of Disposable Personal Income, Annual, Selected Years 1929-1913
| Personal Savings as Percent of Disposable Personal Income | Annual Change of Real Disposable Personal Income | |
| 1930 | 4.4 | -6.3 |
| 1933 | -0.8 | -2.9 |
| 1944 | 27.9 | 3.1 |
| 1947 | 6.3 | -4.1 |
| 1954 | 10.3 | 1.4 |
| 1958 | 11.4 | 1.1 |
| 1960 | 10.0 | 2.6 |
| 1970 | 12.6 | 4.6 |
| 1975 | 13.0 | 2.5 |
| 1982 | 11.5 | 2.1 |
| 1989 | 7.8 | 3.0 |
| 1992 | 8.9 | 4.3 |
| 2002 | 5.0 | 3.1 |
| 2003 | 4.8 | 2.7 |
| 2004 | 4.6 | 3.6 |
| 2005 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| 2006 | 3.3 | 4.0 |
| 2007 | 3.0 | 2.1 |
| 2008 | 4.9 | 1.5 |
| 2009 | 6.1 | -0.4 |
| 2010 | 5.6 | 1.0 |
| 2011 | 6.0 | 2.5 |
| 2012 | 7.2 | 3.0 |
| 2013 | 4.9 | -0.2 |
| 2014 | 4.8 | 2.4 |
| Average Savings Ratio | ||
| 1980-1989 | 9.3 | |
| 2007-2014 | 5.3 | |
| Average Yearly ∆% Real Disposable Income | ||
| 1980-1989 | 3.5 | |
| 2007-2014 | 1.5 |
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm
Chart IB-15 of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis provides personal savings as percent of personal disposable income, or savings ratio, from Jan 2007 to Dec 2014. The uncertainties caused by the global recession resulted in sharp increase in the savings ratio that peaked at 7.9 percent in May 2008 (http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). The second peak occurred at 8.1 percent in May 2009. There was another rising trend until 5.9 percent in Jun 2010 and then steady downward trend until 5.6 percent in Nov 2011. This was followed by an upward trend with 7.1 percent in Jun 2012 but decline to 6.4 percent in Aug 2012 followed by jump to 10.5 percent in Dec 2012. Swelling realization of income in Oct-Dec 2012 in anticipation of tax increases in Jan 2013 caused the jump of the savings rate to 10.5 percent in Dec 2012. The BEA explains as “Personal income in November and December was boosted by accelerated and special dividend payments to persons and by accelerated bonus payments and other irregular pay in private wages and salaries in anticipation of changes in individual income tax rates. Personal income in December was also boosted by lump-sum social security benefit payments” (page 2 at http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/2013/pdf/pi1212.pdf). There was a reverse effect in Jan 2013 with decline of the savings rate to 4.5 percent. Real disposable personal income fell 5.1 percent and real disposable per capita income fell from $38,175 in Dec 2012 to $36,195 in Jan 2013 or by 5.2 percent, which is explained by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as follows (page 3 http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/2013/pdf/pi0213.pdf):
“Contributions for government social insurance -- a subtraction in calculating personal income --increased $6.4 billion in February, compared with an increase of $126.8 billion in January. The
January estimate reflected increases in both employer and employee contributions for government social insurance. The January estimate of employee contributions for government social insurance reflected the expiration of the “payroll tax holiday,” that increased the social security contribution rate for employees and self-employed workers by 2.0 percentage points, or $114.1 billion at an annual rate. For additional information, see FAQ on “How did the expiration of the payroll tax holiday affect personal income for January 2013?” at www.bea.gov. The January estimate of employee contributions for government social insurance also reflected an increase in the monthly premiums paid by participants in the supplementary medical insurance program, in the hospital insurance provisions of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, and in the social security taxable wage base; together, these changes added $12.9 billion to January. Employer contributions were boosted $5.9 billion in January, which reflected increases in the social security taxable wage base (from $110,100 to $113,700), in the tax rates paid by employers to state unemployment insurance, and in employer contributions for the federal unemployment tax and for pension guaranty. The total contribution of special factors to the January change in contributions for government social insurance was $132.9 billion.”
Chart IB-15, US, Personal Savings as a Percentage of Disposable Income, Monthly 2007-2014
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm
Table IB-8 provides personal saving as percent of disposable income, change of real disposable income relative to Dec 2007 (RDPI ∆% 12/07), monthly percentage change of real disposable income (RDPI ∆% Month) and percentage of real disposable income in a month relative to the same month a year earlier (RDPI ∆% YOY). The ratio of personal saving to disposable income eased to 4.9 percent in Dec 2014 with cumulative growth of real disposable income of 11.5 percent since Dec 2007 at the rate of 1.6 percent in annual equivalent that is much lower than 3.2 percent over the long-term from 1929 to 2014.
Table IB-8, US, Savings Ratio and Real Disposable Income, % and ∆%
| Personal Saving as % Disposable Income | RDPI ∆% 12/07 | RDPI ∆% Month | RDPI ∆% YOY | |
| May 2008 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 5.7 |
| May 2009 | 8.1 | 2.5 | 1.6 | -2.5 |
| Jun 2010 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Nov 2011 | 5.6 | 4.2 | -0.1 | 1.5 |
| Jun 2012 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 0.1 | 2.7 |
| Aug 2012 | 6.4 | 6.5 | -0.2 | 1.9 |
| Dec 2012 | 10.5 | 12.3 | 2.8 | 7.0 |
| Jan 2013 | 4.5 | 5.6 | -5.9 | -0.1 |
| Feb 2013 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 0.5 | -0.2 |
| Mar 2013 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Apr 2013 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| May 2013 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Jun 2013 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Jul 2013 | 5.1 | 7.3 | -0.1 | 0.6 |
| Aug 2013 | 5.3 | 7.7 | 0.4 | 1.1 |
| Sep 2013 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 0.3 | 0.9 |
| Oct 2013 | 4.7 | 7.7 | -0.3 | 0.0 |
| Nov 2013 | 4.3 | 7.8 | 0.1 | -1.3 |
| Dec 2013 | 4.1 | 7.6 | -0.2 | -4.2 |
| Jan 2014 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 0.5 | 2.3 |
| Feb 2014 | 5.0 | 8.6 | 0.4 | 2.3 |
| Mar 2014 | 4.8 | 9.1 | 0.5 | 2.4 |
| Apr 2014 | 5.0 | 9.2 | 0.1 | 2.3 |
| May 2014 | 5.1 | 9.4 | 0.2 | 2.1 |
| Jun 2014 | 5.1 | 9.7 | 0.2 | 2.1 |
| Jul 2014 | 5.0 | 9.7 | 0.1 | 2.3 |
| Aug 2014 | 4.7 | 10.1 | 0.3 | 2.2 |
| Sep 2014 | 4.5 | 10.2 | 0.1 | 2.0 |
| Oct 2014 | 4.5 | 10.5 | 0.3 | 2.6 |
| Nov 2014 | 4.3 | 11.0 | 0.4 | 2.9 |
| Dec 2014 | 4.9 | 11.5 | 0.5 | 3.7 |
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm
Germany’s labor market continues to show strength not found in most of the advanced economies, as shown in Table VE-1A. The number unemployed, not seasonally adjusted, decreased from 2.30 million in Jan 2014 to 2.06 million in Jan 201, or 10.4 percent, while the unemployment rate decreased from 5.5 percent in Jan 2014 to 4.9 percent in Jan 2015. The number of persons in employment, not seasonally adjusted, increased from 39.29 million in Jan 2014 to 40.04 million in Jan 2015, or 1.9 percent, while the employment rate increased from 64.0 percent in Jan 2014 to 65.2 percent in Jan 2015. The number unemployed, seasonally adjusted, decreased from 2.01 million in Dec 2014 to 1.91 million in Jan 2015, while the unemployment rate fell from 4.8 percent in Dec 2014 to 4.7 percent in Jan 2015. The number of persons in employment, seasonally adjusted, increased from 40.12 million in Dec 2014 to 40.18 million in Jan 2015, or change of 0.1 percent. The employment rate seasonally adjusted increased unchanged from 65.3 in Dec 2014 to 65.5 in Jan 2015.
Table VE-1A, Germany, Unemployment Labor Force Survey
| Jan 2015 | Dec 2014 | Jan 2014 | |
| NSA | |||
| Number | 2.06 ∆% Jan 2015 /Dec 2014: 7.9 ∆% Jan 2015/Jan 2014: -10.4 | 1.91 | 2.30 |
| % Rate Unemployed | 4.9 | 4.5 | 5.5 |
| Persons in Employment Millions | 40.04 ∆% Jan 2014/ Dec 2014: -1.0 ∆% Jan 2015/Jan 2014: 1.9 | 40.43 | 39.29 |
| Employment Rate | 65.2 | 65.8 | 64.0 |
| SA | |||
| Number | 1.98 ∆% Jan 2015/ Dec 2014: -1.5 ∆% Jan 2015/Jan 2014: –7.0 | 2.01 | 2.13 |
| % Rate Unemployed | 4.7 | 4.8 | 5.1 |
| Persons in Employment Millions | 40.18 ∆% Jan 2015/ Dec 2014: 0.1 ∆% Jan 2015/Jan 2014: 1.5 | 40.12 | 39.57 |
| Employment Rate | 65.5 | 65.3 | 64.5 |
NSA: not seasonally adjusted; SA: seasonally adjusted
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_066_132.html
The unemployment rate in Germany as percent of the labor force in Table VE-2 stood at 6.5 percent in Sep, Oct and Nov 2012, increasing to 6.7 percent in Dec 2012, 7.4 percent in Jan 2013, 7.3 in Mar 2013 and 7.1 percent in Apr 2013. The unemployment rate fell to 6.8 percent in May 2013 and 6.6 percent in Jun 2013 and rose to 6.8 percent in Jul-Aug 2013. The rate fell to 6.6 percent in Sep 2013 and 6.5 percent in Oct 2013 and Nov 2013. The unemployment rate increased to 6.7 percent in Dec 2013 and 7.3 percent in Jan 2013. The unemployment rate reached 7.3 percent in Feb 2014 and 7.1 percent in Mar 2014. The unemployment rate fell to 6.8 percent in Apr 2014 and 6.6 percent in May 2014. The unemployment rate fell to 6.5 percent in Jun 2014, increasing to 6.6 percent in Jun 2014 and 6.7 percent in Aug 2014. The unemployment rate fell to 6.5 percent in Sep 2014 and 6.3 percent in Oct 2014 and Nov 2014. The unemployment rate increase to 6.4 percent in Dec 2014 and 7.0 percent in Jan 2015, falling to 6.9 percent in Feb 2015. The rate is much lower than 11.1 percent in 2005 and 9.6 percent in 2006.
Table VE-2A, Germany, Unemployment Rate in Percent of Labor Force
| Feb 2015 | 6.9 |
| Jan | 7.0 |
| Dec 2014 | 6.4 |
| Nov | 6.3 |
| Oct | 6.3 |
| Sep | 6.5 |
| Aug | 6.7 |
| Jul | 6.6 |
| Jun | 6.5 |
| May | 6.6 |
| Apr | 6.8 |
| Mar | 7.1 |
| Feb | 7.3 |
| Jan | 7.3 |
| Dec 2013 | 6.7 |
| Nov | 6.5 |
| Oct | 6.5 |
| Sep | 6.6 |
| Aug | 6.8 |
| Jul | 6.8 |
| Jun | 6.6 |
| May | 6.8 |
| Apr | 7.1 |
| Mar | 7.3 |
| Feb | 7.4 |
| Jan | 7.4 |
| Dec 2012 | 6.7 |
| Nov | 6.5 |
| Oct | 6.5 |
| Sep | 6.5 |
| Aug | 6.8 |
| Jul | 6.8 |
| Jun | 6.6 |
| May | 6.7 |
| Apr | 7.0 |
| Mar | 7.2 |
| Feb | 7.4 |
| Jan | 7.3 |
| Dec 2011 | 6.6 |
| Nov | 6.4 |
| Oct | 6.5 |
| Sep | 6.6 |
| Aug | 7.0 |
| Jul | 7.0 |
| Jun | 6.9 |
| May | 7.0 |
| Apr | 7.3 |
| Mar | 7.6 |
| Feb | 7.9 |
| Jan | 7.9 |
| Dec 2010 | 7.1 |
| Dec 2009 | 7.8 |
| Dec 2008 | 7.4 |
| Dec 2007 | 8.1 |
| Dec 2006 | 9.6 |
| Dec 2005 | 11.1 |
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland
https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html
Chart VE-1 of Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland, or Federal Statistical Office of Germany, shows the long-term decline of the rate of unemployment in Germany from more than 12 percent in early 2005 to 6.6 percent in Dec 2011, increasing to 6.7 percent in Dec 2012, 6.8 percent in Apr 2013 and 6.6 percent in May 2013. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 6.8 percent in Aug 2013, falling to 6.6 percent in Sep 2013 and 6.5 percent in Oct 2013. The rate remained at 6.5 percent in Nov 2013, increasing to 6.7 percent in Dec 2013 and 7.3 in Jan 2014. The rate remained at 7.3 percent in Feb 2014, declining to 7.1 percent in Mar 2014. The rate fell to 6.8 percent in Apr 2014, 6.6 percent in May 2014 and 6.5 percent in Jun 2014. The rate increased to 6.6 percent in Jul 2014 and 6.7 percent in Aug 2014, falling to 6.5 percent in Sep 2014. The rate fell to 6.3 percent in Oct 2014 and 6.3 percent in Nov 2014, increasing to 6.4 percent in Dec 2014. The rate increased to 7.0 percent in Jan 2015, falling to 6.9 percent in Feb 2015.
Chart VE-1A, Germany, Unemployment Rate, Unadjusted, Percent
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland
https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html
VF France. Table VF-FR provides growth rates of GDP of France with the estimates of Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE). The long-term rate of GDP growth of France from IVQ1949 to IVQ2014 is quite high at 3.2 percent. France’s growth rates were quite high in the four decades of the 1950s, 1960, 1970s and 1980s with an average growth rate of 4.0 percent compounding the average rates in the decades and discounting to one decade. The growth impulse diminished with 2.0 percent in the 1990s and 1.8 percent from 2000 to 2007. The average growth rate from 2000 to 2014, using fourth quarter data, is 1.0 percent because of the sharp impact of the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. Cobet and Wilson (2002) provide estimates of output per hour and unit labor costs in national currency and US dollars for the US, Japan and Germany from 1950 to 2000 (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 137-44). The average yearly rate of productivity change from 1950 to 2000 was 2.9 percent in the US, 6.3 percent for Japan and 4.7 percent for Germany while unit labor costs in USD increased at 2.6 percent in the US, 4.7 percent in Japan and 4.3 percent in Germany. From 1995 to 2000, output per hour increased at the average yearly rate of 4.6 percent in the US, 3.9 percent in Japan and 2.6 percent in Germany while unit labor costs in US fell at minus 0.7 percent in the US, 4.3 percent in Japan and 7.5 percent in Germany. There was increase in productivity growth in the G7 in Japan and France in the second half of the 1990s but significantly lower than the acceleration of 1.3 percentage points per year in the US. Lucas (2011May) compares growth of the G7 economies (US, UK, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Canada) and Spain, finding that catch-up growth with earlier rates for the US and UK stalled in the 1970s.
Table VF-FR, France, Average Growth Rates of GDP Fourth Quarter, 1949-2014
| Period | Average ∆% |
| 1949-2014 | 3.2 |
| 2007-2014 | 0.3 |
| 2000-2014 | 1.0 |
| 2000-2013 | 1.1 |
| 2000-2007 | 1.8 |
| 1990-1999 | 2.0 |
| 1980-1989 | 2.6 |
| 1970-1979 | 3.7 |
| 1960-1969 | 5.7 |
| 1950-1959 | 4.2 |
Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques
http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=26&date=20150213
The Markit Flash France Composite Output Index increased from 49.3 in Jan to 52.2 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b6bc1f701e814e5fab60f5e56429f5e4). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds possible improvement in IQ2015 GDP (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b6bc1f701e814e5fab60f5e56429f5e4). The Markit France Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing with close association with French GDP, decreased from 49.7 in Dec to 49.3 in Jan, indicating marginal contraction (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/6125b8f5670345fc95608961c451a13d). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the France Services PMI®, finds restraint of growth by the private sector (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/6125b8f5670345fc95608961c451a13d). The Markit France Services Activity index decreased from 50.6 in Dec to 49.4 in Jan (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/6125b8f5670345fc95608961c451a13d). The Markit France Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index® increased to 49.2 in Jan from 47.5 in Dec (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/5c64595cdb86401685388c76f015bc55). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the France Manufacturing PMI®, finds stabilization in manufacturing with weak demand (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/5c64595cdb86401685388c76f015bc55). Table FR provides the country data table for France.
Table FR, France, Economic Indicators
| CPI | Jan month ∆% -1.0 |
| PPI | Jan month ∆%: -0.9 Blog 3/1/15 |
| GDP Growth | IVQ2014/IIIQ2014 ∆%:0.1 |
| Industrial Production | Dec ∆%: |
| Consumer Spending | Manufactured Goods |
| Employment | Unemployment Rate: IIIQ2014 9.9% |
| Trade Balance | Dec Exports ∆%: month 1.8, 12 months 3.7 Dec Imports ∆%: month 2.6, 12 months -1.4 Blog 2/15/15 |
| Confidence Indicators | Historical average 100 Feb Mfg Business Climate 99.0 Blog 3/1/15 |
Links to blog comments in Table FR:
2/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html
2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html
2/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html
12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html
12/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/financial-risks-twenty-six-million.html
11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html
9/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html
8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html
6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html
5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html
4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html
2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html
12/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/collapse-of-united-states-dynamism-of.html
11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html
9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html
6/30/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/tapering-quantitative-easing-policy-and.html
5/19/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/word-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html
Table VF-1 shows the INSEE business climate indicator for manufacturing. The headline composite indicator improved from 99 in Nov-Dec 2014 close to the average 100 and 100 in Jan 15 and 99 in Feb 2015. General production expectations improved from minus 16 in Nov 2014 to minus 8 in Feb 2015.
Table VF-1, France, Manufacturing Business Climate Indicators of INSEE
| Mfg 2014 | Average since 1976 | Feb 15 | Jan 15 | Dec 14 | Nov 14 |
| Composite Indicator | 100 | 99 | 100 | 99 | 99 |
| Past Activity | 4 | -2 | -2 | 4 | 1 |
| Finished- Goods Inventory Level | 13 | 4 | 13 | 16 | 12 |
| Global Order Books | -18 | -25 | -21 | -20 | -20 |
| Export Order Books | -14 | -15 | -15 | -15 | -20 |
| Personal Production Expectations | 5 | 12 | 13 | 5 | 7 |
| General Production Expectations | -9 | -8 | -10 | -15 | -16 |
Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques
http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=11&date=20150224
Chart VF-1 of the Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE) provides the history of the manufacturing business climate indicator of INSEE since 1992. The index fell during the contractions of 1991, 2001 and 2008. After rapid recovery beginning in 2009 the synthetic index shows declining trend in 2011 with upward reversal in 2012 interrupted in Apr through Jul 2012 and a marginal upward move in Aug-Sep 2012 but new decline in Oct 2012. The manufacturing composite indicator marginally reversed in Nov 2012 with stability in Dec 2012 and decline in Jan 2013 but improvement in Feb 2013 and stability in Mar 2013, deteriorating in Apr 2013 and recovering in May-Aug 2013. The composite indicator of manufacturing eased slightly in Sep 2013 and improved marginally in Oct-Dec 2013, close to the long-term average of 100. The index reached 100 in Dec 2013 and oscillated around the average. The index fell in the recent segment in 2014 followed by recovery into 2015.
Chart VF-1, France, INSEE Industrial Business Climate Composite Indicator
Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques
http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=11&date=20150224
Chart VF-2 of the Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE) shows strong drops of the turning point indicator in the recessions of 1991, 2001 and 2008. There have been other drops of this index. The turning point indicator has fallen to levels in the direction of past contractions and after rebounding in Oct and Nov 2011 is showing declining trend in Jan 2012 with slight reversal in Feb followed by significant improvement in Mar and deterioration in Apr through Jul 2012. There is new improvement in Aug 2012 followed by decline in Sep-Oct 2012 followed by rebound in Nov 2012 and stability in Dec 2012 to Jan-Mar 2013, deteriorating in Apr-May 2013. The index improved in Jun-Sep 2013 and stabilized in Oct 2013, declining in Nov 2013. The index increased in Dec 2013 and in Jan 2014, declining in Feb 2014 and stabilizing in Mar 2014. The index stabilized in Apr-May 2014 and fell in Jun 2014 with partial recovery in Jul-Aug 2014. The index stabilized in Sep-Oct 2014 and improved in Nov 2014, deteriorating marginally in Dec 2014. There is stability in Jan-Feb 2015.
Chart VF-2, INSEE Business Climate Manufacturing Turning Point Indicator
Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques
http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=11&date=20150224
Chart VF-3 of the Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE) of France provides the composite climate indicator for French business. There is recovery in Jul-Sep 2013 and stability in Oct-Nov 2013. The index fell marginally in Dec 2013 and in Jan-Feb 2014. The index increased marginally in Mar 2014, stabilizing in Apr-May 2014. The index fell in Aug-Oct 2014, recovering in Nov 2014 and stabilizing in Dec 2014/Jan-Feb 2015.
Chart VF-3, France, Composite Indicator of Business Climate of INSEE
Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques
http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=105&date=20150224
VG Italy. Table VG-IT provides percentage changes in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier of Italy’s expenditure components in chained volume measures. GDP has been declining at sharper rates from minus 0.7 percent in IVQ2011 to minus 2.5 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.5 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.2 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.8 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 1.2 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.3 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and decreased 0.4 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.4 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.3 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. The aggregate demand components of consumption and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) have been declining at faster rates. The rates of decline of GDP, consumption and GFCF were somewhat milder in IIIQ2013 and IVQ2013 than in IQ2013 and the final three quarters of 2012. Consumption fell 0.3 percent in IQ2014 and GFCF fell 1.4 percent. In IIQ2014, consumption increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier and GFCF fell 2.2 percent. GDP fell 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier while consumption increased 0.4 percent and GFCF fell 3.1 percent.
Table VG-IT, Italy, GDP and Expenditure Components, Chained Volume Measures, Quarter ∆% on Same Quarter Year Earlier
| GDP | Imports | Consumption | GFCF | Exports | |
| 2014 | |||||
| IVQ | -0.3 | ||||
| IIIQ | -0.4 | -0.7 | 0.4 | -3.1 | 1.3 |
| IIQ | -0.4 | 1.8 | 0.2 | -2.2 | 2.5 |
| IQ | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -1.4 | 1.5 |
| 2013 | |||||
| IVQ | -1.2 | 0.5 | -1.1 | -3.4 | 1.4 |
| IIIQ | -1.8 | -1.7 | -2.2 | -4.3 | 0.4 |
| IIQ | -2.2 | -4.1 | -2.7 | -6.2 | 0.4 |
| IQ | -2.5 | -5.0 | -2.9 | -7.6 | 1.3 |
| 2012 | |||||
| IVQ | -2.5 | -7.6 | -3.5 | -7.8 | 1.3 |
| IIIQ | -2.5 | -8.0 | -3.7 | -8.1 | 2.5 |
| IIQ | -2.4 | -8.6 | -3.6 | -7.6 | 1.2 |
| IQ | -1.9 | -8.5 | -3.0 | -6.5 | 1.6 |
| 2011 | |||||
| IVQ | -0.7 | -7.0 | -2.1 | -4.0 | 2.4 |
| IIIQ | 0.5 | 0.4 | -0.8 | -2.4 | 4.6 |
| IIQ | 1.3 | 3.7 | 0.4 | -0.9 | 7.7 |
| IQ | 1.9 | 8.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 10.3 |
| 2010 | |||||
| IVQ | 2.3 | 14.6 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 13.0 |
| IIIQ | 1.8 | 12.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 12.4 |
| IIQ | 1.9 | 14.2 | 1.0 | -0.4 | 13.2 |
| IQ | 0.7 | 6.7 | 0.9 | -3.3 | 6.8 |
| 2009 | |||||
| IVQ | -3.5 | -6.3 | 0.2 | -8.2 | -9.3 |
| IIIQ | -5.0 | -12.2 | -0.8 | -12.6 | -16.4 |
| IIQ | -6.6 | -17.9 | -1.4 | -13.6 | -21.4 |
| IQ | -6.9 | -17.2 | -1.8 | -12.4 | -22.8 |
| 2008 | |||||
| IVQ | -3.0 | -8.2 | -0.9 | -8.3 | -10.3 |
| IIIQ | -1.9 | -5.0 | -0.8 | -4.5 | -3.9 |
| IIQ | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -1.5 | 0.4 |
| IQ | 0.5 | 1.7 | 0.1 | -1.0 | 2.9 |
GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation
Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica
http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/140552
The Markit/ADACI Business Activity Index increased from 49.4 in Dec to 51.2 in Jan (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/de602c4f66774a9498effbd5e79d4f8e). Phil Smith, Economist at Markit and author of the Italy Services PMI®, finds weak demand in stabilizing economy (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/de602c4f66774a9498effbd5e79d4f8e). The Markit/ADACI Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®), increased from 48.4 in Dec to 49.9 in Jan (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b6c075a50679413aa05172baa1dc30bc). New export orders continued to increase. Phil Smith, Economist at Markit and author of the Italian Manufacturing PMI®, finds fragile conditions in manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b6c075a50679413aa05172baa1dc30bc). Table IT provides the country data table for Italy.
Table IT, Italy, Economic Indicators
| Consumer Price Index | Feb month ∆%: 0.3 |
| Producer Price Index | Dec month ∆%: -0.8 Blog 2/1/15 |
| GDP Growth | IVQ2014/IIIQ2014 SA ∆%: 0.0 |
| Labor Report | Dec 2014 Participation rate 64.2% Employment ratio 55.7% Unemployment rate 12.9% Youth Unemployment 42.0% Blog 2/1/15 |
| Industrial Production | Dec month ∆%: 0.4 |
| Retail Sales | Dec month ∆%: -0.2 Dec 12-month ∆%: 0.1 Blog 3/1/15 |
| Business Confidence | Mfg Feb 99.1, Oct 96.3 Construction Feb 76.6, Oct 77.4 Blog 3/1/15 |
| Trade Balance | Balance Dec SA €5153 million versus Nov €3816 |
Links to blog comments in Table IT:
2/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html
2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html
2/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html
12/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/financial-risks-twenty-six-million.html
11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html
10/19/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/imf-view-squeeze-of-economic-activity.html
8/31/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitical-and-financial-risks.html
8/10/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/volatility-of-valuations-of-risk_10.html
6/15/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financialgeopolitical-risks-recovery.html
5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html
3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html
2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html
12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html
11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html
9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html
8/11/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/recovery-without-hiring-loss-of-full.html
6/16/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/recovery-without-hiring-seven-million.html
3/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html
Italy is competitive in various economic activities. Current restraints consist of low economic growth with high debt/GDP ratio and need for structural changes. Table VG-1 provides growth of retail sales for Italy. Retail sales decreased 0.2 percent in Dec 2014 relative to Nov 2014, decreased 0.1 percent in Oct-Dec 2014 relative to Jul-Sep 2014, increased 0.1 percent in Dec 2014 relative to Dec 2013 and decreased 1.2 percent cumulatively in Jan-Dec 2014 relative to Jan-Dec 2013.
Table VG-1, Italy, Retail Sales ∆%
| Dec 2014/ Nov 2014 SA | Oct-Dec 14/ | Dec 2014/ Dec 2013 NSA | Jan- Dec 2014/ | |
| Food | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.8 | -1.1 |
| Non-food | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -1.2 |
| Total | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.1 | -1.2 |
Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica
http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/150666
Chart VG-1 provides 12-month percentage changes of retail sales at current prices. There is improvement in the final segment from Feb to May 2013 with sharper decline in Jun 2013 and recovery in Jul-Aug 2013. Sales declined again in Sep 2013, increasing in Oct-Nov 2013. Sales fell in Dec 2013 and improved in Jan 2014. Sales stabilized in Feb 2014 and deteriorated in Mar 2014. Sales improved in Apr 2014 and deteriorated in May-Jun 2014. There is marginal improvement in Jul 2014 followed by deterioration in Aug-Sep 2014 with stability in Oct 2014 and deterioration in Nov 2014. There is improvement in Dec 2014.
Chart VG-1, Italy, Percentage Changes of Retail Sales in 12 Months
Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica
A longer perspective of retail sales in Italy is provided by monthly and 12-month percentage changes in 2011, Jan-Dec 2012, Jan-Dec 2013, Jan-Dec 2014 and annual rates for 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 in Table VG-2. Retail sales did not decline very sharply during the global recession but fell 0.8 percent in 2011, 1.7 percent in 2012 and 2.1 percent in 2013. Retail sales fell 1.2 percent in 2014. There is an evident declining trend in 2011 with few monthly increases and similar weakness in 2012 with multiple monthly declines. Negative percentage changes in 12 months increased to more than 3 percent with decrease of 3.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2013 and decrease of 3.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2013. Retail sales decreased 0.2 percent in Dec 2014 and increased 0.1 percent in 12 months.
Table VG-2, Italy, Retail Sales Month and 12-Month ∆%
| Month ∆% SA | 12-Month ∆% NSA | |
| Dec 2014 | -0.2 | 0.1 |
| Nov | 0.1 | -2.0 |
| Oct | 0.0 | -1.0 |
| Sep | 0.0 | -0.6 |
| Aug | -0.2 | -3.0 |
| Jul | -0.1 | -1.7 |
| Jun | -0.1 | -2.7 |
| May | -0.7 | -0.4 |
| Apr | 0.4 | 2.7 |
| Mar | -0.1 | -3.5 |
| Feb | 0.0 | -1.0 |
| Jan | 0.0 | -0.9 |
| Dec 2013 | -0.2 | -2.6 |
| Nov | -0.2 | 0.2 |
| Oct | -0.2 | -1.6 |
| Sep | -0.2 | -2.8 |
| Aug | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Jul | -0.2 | -0.8 |
| Jun | -0.1 | -3.0 |
| May | 0.6 | -1.2 |
| Apr | -0.3 | -2.9 |
| Mar | -0.3 | -3.2 |
| Feb | 0.0 | -4.8 |
| Jan | -0.5 | -2.8 |
| Dec 2012 | 0.1 | -3.4 |
| Nov | -0.1 | -2.4 |
| Oct | -0.8 | -3.4 |
| Sep | -0.1 | -1.0 |
| Aug | 0.0 | -0.4 |
| Jul | -0.2 | -3.1 |
| Jun | -0.1 | 0.2 |
| May | 0.0 | -1.1 |
| Apr | -1.4 | -6.3 |
| Mar | 0.4 | 2.3 |
| Feb | -0.5 | 0.7 |
| Jan | 1.1 | -0.9 |
| Dec 2011 | -0.9 | -3.2 |
| Nov | -0.5 | -1.5 |
| Oct | 0.7 | -0.9 |
| Sep | -0.3 | -1.1 |
| Aug | -0.4 | 0.1 |
| July | 0.0 | -1.7 |
| Jun | -0.4 | -0.6 |
| May | -0.5 | -0.3 |
| Apr | 0.9 | 3.3 |
| Mar | -0.2 | -1.9 |
| Feb | -0.3 | 0.1 |
| Jan | -0.2 | -0.5 |
| Dec 2010 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| 2014 | -1.2 | |
| 2013 | -2.1 | |
| 2012 | -1.7 | |
| 2011 | -0.8 |
Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica
http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/150666
Table VG-3, Italy, Index of Business Confidence in Manufacturing and Construction 2005=100
| Feb 2015 | Jan 2015 | Dec 2014 | Nov 2014 | Oct 2014 | |
| Mfg Confidence | 99.1 | 97.6 | 97.7 | 96.7 | 96.3 |
| Order Books | -20 | -23 | -23 | -24 | -24 |
| Stocks Finished Products | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Production | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Construction Confidence | 76.6 | 77.4 | 72.7 | 74.1 | 77.4 |
| Order Books | -53 | -53 | -53 | -49 | -50 |
| Employment | -18 | -17 | -27 | -28 | -21 |
Mfg: manufacturing
Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica
http://www.istat.it/en/archive/150757
VH United Kingdom. Annual data in Table VH-UK show the strong impact of the global recession in the UK with decline of GDP of 4.3 percent in 2009 after dropping 0.3 percent in 2008. Recovery of 1.9 percent in 2010 is relatively low in comparison with annual growth rates in 2007 and earlier years. Growth was only 1.6 percent in 2011 and 0.7 percent in 2012. Growth increased to 1.7 percent in 2013 and 2.6 percent in 2014. The bottom part of Table VH-UK provides average growth rates of UK GDP since 1948. The UK economy grew at 2.6 percent per year on average between 1948 and 2013, which is relatively high for an advanced economy. The growth rate of GDP between 2000 and 2007 is higher at 2.9 percent. Growth in the current cyclical expansion from 2010 to 2014 has been only at 1.7 percent as advanced economies struggle with weak internal demand and world trade. GDP in 2014 higher by 3.7 percent relative to 2007 while it would have been 22.2 higher at trend of 2.9 percent as from 2000 to 2007.
Table VH-UK, UK, Gross Domestic Product, ∆%
| ∆% on Prior Year | |
| 1998 | 3.5 |
| 1999 | 3.2 |
| 2000 | 3.8 |
| 2001 | 2.7 |
| 2002 | 2.5 |
| 2003 | 4.3 |
| 2004 | 2.5 |
| 2005 | 2.8 |
| 2006 | 3.0 |
| 2007 | 2.6 |
| 2008 | -0.3 |
| 2009 | -4.3 |
| 2010 | 1.9 |
| 2011 | 1.6 |
| 2012 | 0.7 |
| 2013 | 1.7 |
| 2014 | 2.6 |
| Average Growth Rates ∆% per Year | |
| 1948-2014 | 2.6 |
| 1950-1959 | 3.1 |
| 1960-1969 | 3.1 |
| 1970-1979 | 2.6 |
| 1980-1989 | 3.1 |
| 1990-1999 | 2.2 |
| 2000-2007 | 2.9 |
| 2007-2013* | 1.1 |
| 2007-2014* | 3.7 |
| 2000-2014 | 1.7 |
*Absolute change from 2007 to 2012 an from 2007 to 2013
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/second-estimate-of-gdp/q4-2014/index.html
The Business Activity Index of the Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI® increased from 55.8 in Dec to 57.2 in Jan (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/7f74a45a346049b090efdde7439da2fa). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds the combined indices consistent with the UK economy growing at around 0.5 percent in IQ2015 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/7f74a45a346049b090efdde7439da2fa). The Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®) increased to 53.0 in Jan from 52.7 in Dec (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8e3dcd3441ab4a48b0e5c1c95742e8fc). New export orders increased moderately in Jan with increases in business from France, German, Japan, Poland, USA and the Middle East. Rob Dobson, Senior Economist at Markit that compiles the Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI®, finds that manufacturing conditions suggest growth at a quarterly rate of 0.2 percent in Jan (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8e3dcd3441ab4a48b0e5c1c95742e8fc). Table UK provides the economic indicators for the United Kingdom.
Table UK, UK Economic Indicators
| CPI | Jan month ∆%: -0.9 |
| Output/Input Prices | Output Prices: Jan 12-month NSA ∆%: -1.8; excluding food, petroleum ∆%: 0.5 |
| GDP Growth | IVQ2014 prior quarter ∆% 0.5; year earlier same quarter ∆%: 2.7 |
| Industrial Production | Dec 2014/Dec 2013 ∆%: Production Industries 0.5; Manufacturing 2.4 |
| Retail Sales | Jan month ∆%: -0.3 |
| Labor Market | Oct-Dec Unemployment Rate: 5.7%; Claimant Count 2.5%; Earnings Growth 2.1% |
| GDP and the Labor Market | IIIQ2014 Weekly Hours 103.4, GDP 103.3, Employment 103.7 IQ2008 =100 GDP IIIQ14 103.3 IQ2008=100 Blog 11/16/14 |
| Trade Balance | Balance SA Aug minus ₤2895 million |
Links to blog comments in Table UK:
2/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html
2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html
2/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html
12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html
11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html
11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html
10/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/financial-oscillations-world-inflation.html
10/5/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/world-financial-turbulence-twenty-seven.html
8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html
7/27/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html
6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html
5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html
5/4/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html
4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html
3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html
2/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html
12/22/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html
12/1/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/exit-risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html
10/27/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/twenty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html
9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html
8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html
7/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html
5/26/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html
4/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_28.html
03/31/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html
Table VH-1 provides quarter on quarter chained value measures of GDP since 1998 in the first estimate for IVQ2014 (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/gva/gross-domestic-product--preliminary-estimate/q4-2014/index.html). The UK Office for National Statistics provides revision of the national accounts in accordance with the European System of Accounts 2010 (ESA 2010) (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/quarterly-national-accounts/q2-2014/index.html). GDP grew 0.5 percent in IVQ2014 relative to IIIQ2014. Growth of 0.8 percent in IIIQ2012 interrupted three consecutive quarters of weakness in GDP growth. Most advanced economies are underperforming relative to the period before the global recession. The UK Office for National Statistics analyzes that the decline in the impulse of growth in the UK originated in weakness in markets in the UK and worldwide. The UK Office for National Statistics estimates that GDP in IVQ2014 is higher by 3.4 percent relative to the peak in IQ2008 (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/gva/gross-domestic-product--preliminary-estimate/q4-2014/stb-gdp-preliminary-estimate--q4-2014.html). UK GDP in chained value measures is ₤414,424 million in IQ2008 and ₤428,514 million in IVQ2014 or increase of 3.4 percent. Growth at trend of 2.9 percent per year would bring GDP to ₤502,630 million in 2014. UK GDP in IVQ2014 at ₤428,514 million is lower by ₤74,166 million relative to trend at ₤502,630 million or lower by 14.7 percent compared with trend. The UK Office for National Statistics estimates the contraction of 6.0 percent from peak to trough (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/gva/gross-domestic-product--preliminary-estimate/q4-2014/stb-gdp-preliminary-estimate--q4-2014.html), which is roughly equal at 6.1 percent to compounding the quarterly rates except for rounding in Table VH-1 from IIQ2008 to IIQ2009. UK GDP is ₤414,424 million in IQ2008 declining 6.0 percent to ₤389,388 million in IIQ2009. GDP increased 10.0 percent from IIQ2009 to ₤428,347 million in IVQ2014 or at the annual equivalent rate of 1.7 percent. GDP increased 3.4 percent from IQ2008 to IVQ2014 or at the annual equivalent rate of 0.5 percent.
Table VH-1, UK, Percentage Change of GDP from Prior Quarter, Chained Value Measures ∆%
| IQ | IIQ | IIIQ | IV | |
| 2014 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 2013 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 2012 | 0.1 | -0.2 | 0.8 | -0.3 |
| 2011 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 2010 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 2009 | -1.8 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| 2008 | 0.3 | -0.2 | -1.7 | -2.2 |
| 2007 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 2006 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| 2005 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| 2004 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| 2003 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| 2002 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| 2001 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 2000 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 1999 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| 1998 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/second-estimate-of-gdp/q4-2014/index.html
There are four periods in growth of GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier in the UK in the years from 2000 to the present as shown in Table VH-2. (1) Growth rates were quite high from 2000 to 2007. (2) There were six consecutive quarters of contraction of GDP from IIIQ2008 to IVQ2009. Contractions relative to the quarter a year earlier were quite sharp with the highest of 3.8 percent in IVQ2008, 5.8 percent in IQ2009, 5.8 percent in IIQ2009 and 4.0 percent in IIIQ2009. (3) The economy bounced strongly with 2.1 percent in IIQ2010, 2.5 percent in IIIQ2010 and 2.2 percent in IVQ2010. (4) Recovery in 2011 did not continue at rates comparable to those in 2000 to 2007 and even relative to those in the final three quarters of 2010. Growth relative to the same quarter a year earlier fell from 2.2 percent in IVQ2010 to 1.4 percent in IIQ2011, 1.5 percent in IIIQ2011, 1.5 percent in IVQ2011 but only 1.0 percent in IQ2012, increase of 0.6 percent in IIQ2012 relative to IIQ2011, increase of 0.7 percent in IIIQ2012 and 0.4 percent in IVQ2012. In IQ2012, GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, GDP fell 0.2 percent relative to IQ2012 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, GDP increased 0.8 percent and increased 0.7 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier. In IVQ2012, GDP fell 0.3 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Fiscal consolidation in an environment of weakening economic growth is much more challenging. Growth increased to 0.9 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 0.6 percent in IQ2013 relative to IVQ2012. In IIQ2013, GDP increased 0.6 percent and 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIIQ2013 and 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2013 and 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, GDP increased 0.7 percent and 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IQ2014 and 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIIQ2013 and 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, GDP increased 0.5 percent and 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier.
Table VH-2, UK, Percentage Change of GDP from Same Quarter a Year Earlier, Chained Value Measures ∆%
| IQ | IIQ | IIIQ | IV | |
| 2014 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| 2013 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 2.4 |
| 2012 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 2011 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 2010 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| 2009 | -5.8 | -5.8 | -4.0 | -1.5 |
| 2008 | 2.2 | 1.4 | -1.1 | -3.8 |
| 2007 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.7 |
| 2006 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 2.0 |
| 2005 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 4.2 |
| 2004 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| 2003 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.7 |
| 2002 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 3.1 |
| 2001 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| 2000 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| 1999 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 3.7 |
| 1998 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.2 |
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/second-estimate-of-gdp/q4-2014/index.html
Table VH-3 provides annual percentage changes of gross value added and key components. Production fell 8.8 percent in 2009 and its most important component manufacturing fell 9.4 percent. Services fell 2.9 percent in 2009. Services grew in all years from 2010 to 2014 while manufacturing fell 1.3 percent in 2012 and 0.7 percent in 2013. Manufacturing resumed growth with 2.7 percent in 2014.
Table VH-3, UK, Gross Value Added by Components, ∆% on Prior Year
| TP | MFG | CONS | SERV | GVA BP | GVA EX | |
| 2011 Weights | 146 | 101 | 64 | 784 | 1000 | 981 |
| 1998 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 3.7 |
| 1999 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 3.1 |
| 2000 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 4.3 |
| 2001 | -1.6 | -1.6 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 2.9 |
| 2002 | -1.7 | -2.6 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| 2003 | -0.7 | -0.6 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 5.0 |
| 2004 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.7 |
| 2005 | -0.7 | -0.1 | -2.4 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 3.6 |
| 2006 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 3.5 |
| 2007 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| 2008 | -2.7 | -2.9 | -2.6 | 0.6 | -0.1 | - |
| 2009 | -8.8 | -9.4 | -13.2 | -2.9 | -4.5 | -4.4 |
| 2010 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 8.5 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 2.3 |
| 2011 | -0.8 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 2.2 |
| 2012 | -2.7 | -1.3 | -7.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| 2013 | -0.5 | -0.7 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| 2014 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.7 |
Note: TP: Total Production; MFG: Manufacturing; CONS: Construction; SERV: Services; GVA BP: Gross Value Added at Basic Prices; GVA EX: Gross Value Added excluding Oil and Gas
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/second-estimate-of-gdp/q4-2014/index.html
Percentage changes of gross value added and components in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier are in Table VH-4A. Gross value added increased 2.8 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier while services increased 3.3 percent. Manufacturing increased 2.4 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier.
Table VH-4A, UK, Gross Value Added by Components, ∆% on Same Quarter of Previous Year
| TP | MFG | CONS | SERV | GVA BP | GVA EX | |
| 2011 Weights | 146 | 101 | 64 | 784 | 1000 | 981 |
| 1998 Q1 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 4.1 |
| 1998 Q2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 3.6 |
| 1998 Q3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 3.8 |
| 1998 Q4 | 0.2 | -1.1 | - | 4.9 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
| 1999 Q1 | -0.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 3.0 |
| 1999 Q2 | -0.4 | -1.0 | 1.3 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 2.6 |
| 1999 Q3 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.3 |
| 1999 Q4 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.7 |
| 2000 Q1 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 4.3 |
| 2000 Q2 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 5.1 |
| 2000 Q3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | -1.9 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 4.3 |
| 2000 Q4 | 0.7 | 1.7 | - | 3.6 | 2.7 | 3.5 |
| 2001 Q1 | - | 0.7 | -1.9 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 3.7 |
| 2001 Q2 | -1.6 | -1.5 | 1.6 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 3.1 |
| 2001 Q3 | -1.5 | -1.5 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 2.7 |
| 2001 Q4 | -3.2 | -4.1 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| 2002 Q1 | -2.6 | -3.5 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| 2002 Q2 | -1.8 | -3.0 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 2002 Q3 | -1.7 | -2.0 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.7 |
| 2002 Q4 | -0.8 | -1.8 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 3.3 |
| 2003 Q1 | -1.5 | -2.2 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 3.7 |
| 2003 Q2 | -1.3 | -0.7 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 5.3 |
| 2003 Q3 | -0.5 | -1.0 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 5.3 |
| 2003 Q4 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 5.8 |
| 2004 Q1 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 11.6 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 5.0 |
| 2004 Q2 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 3.0 |
| 2004 Q3 | -0.3 | 0.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| 2004 Q4 | -0.1 | 1.2 | -0.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| 2005 Q1 | -1.2 | -0.7 | -2.7 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| 2005 Q2 | -0.7 | -0.1 | -1.8 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 3.1 |
| 2005 Q3 | -0.4 | 0.8 | -2.9 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 4.3 |
| 2005 Q4 | -0.7 | -0.3 | -2.2 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 5.3 |
| 2006 Q1 | 1.0 | 1.6 | -2.0 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 4.7 |
| 2006 Q2 | -0.3 | 1.6 | -0.5 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 4.1 |
| 2006 Q3 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.9 |
| 2006 Q4 | 0.9 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.2 |
| 2007 Q1 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| 2007 Q2 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| 2007 Q3 | - | 0.1 | 1.0 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 3.1 |
| 2007 Q4 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| 2008 Q1 | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 2.6 |
| 2008 Q2 | -1.2 | -1.5 | -0.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| 2008 Q3 | -2.3 | -2.7 | -1.7 | -0.5 | -0.8 | -0.7 |
| 2008 Q4 | -6.9 | -7.3 | -8.6 | -2.4 | -3.4 | -3.3 |
| 2009 Q1 | -10.9 | -12.6 | -16.1 | -3.7 | -5.7 | -5.7 |
| 2009 Q2 | -10.0 | -10.9 | -16.2 | -4.0 | -5.8 | -5.8 |
| 2009 Q3 | -9.5 | -9.7 | -12.2 | -2.7 | -4.4 | -4.2 |
| 2009 Q4 | -4.4 | -3.9 | -7.8 | -1.0 | -2.0 | -1.8 |
| 2010 Q1 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| 2010 Q2 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 10.1 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 2.4 |
| 2010 Q3 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 11.0 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 3.0 |
| 2010 Q4 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 9.3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| 2011 Q1 | 1.5 | 4.3 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.7 |
| 2011 Q2 | -0.7 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| 2011 Q3 | -1.3 | 0.9 | -0.7 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| 2011 Q4 | -2.8 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| 2012 Q1 | -2.8 | -0.5 | -4.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| 2012 Q2 | -2.5 | -1.8 | -8.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| 2012 Q3 | -2.0 | -0.9 | -9.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| 2012 Q4 | -3.5 | -2.0 | -7.7 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| 2013 Q1 | -2.6 | -2.4 | -5.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| 2013 Q2 | -1.0 | -0.8 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 2013 Q3 | -0.4 | -0.8 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| 2013 Q4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 2014 Q1 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 9.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| 2014 Q2 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| 2014 Q3 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| 2014 Q4 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 2.9 |
Note: TP: Total Production; MFG: Manufacturing; CONS: Construction; SERV: Services; GVA BP: Gross Value Added at Basic Prices; GVA EX: Gross Value Added excluding Oil and Gas
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/second-estimate-of-gdp/q4-2014/index.html
Growth rates of gross value added (GVA) and output components of gross value added in a quarter from the preceding quarter are in Table VH-4. Growth of GVA in IVQ2014 originated in growth of services of 0.8 percent and total production of 0.1 percent while manufacturing grew 0.2 percent and construction decreased 2.1 percent.
Table VH-4, UK, Quarter on Quarter Growth of Value Added by Output Components, ∆% on Prior Quarter
| Component | 2013 Q1 | 2013 Q2 | 2013 Q3 | 2013 Q4 | 2014 Q1 | 2014 Q2 | 2014 Q3 | 2014 Q4 |
| GVA (Average) | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| Agriculture | -4.5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.6 |
| Total Production | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Mining & quarrying inc oil & gas extract | 1.7 | 2.3 | 3.4 | -1.3 | -0.5 | 0.2 | -2.3 | 0.5 |
| Manufacturing | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Electricity, gas and air | 2.7 | -2.3 | -5.8 | 1.7 | -4.5 | 0.4 | 2.6 | -2.7 |
| Water and Sewerage | -1.0 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 0.1 | -0.7 | -2.8 | -0.4 | 0.5 |
| Construction | -0.7 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 2.0 | -2.1 |
| Total Services | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Distn, hotels and catering | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Transport, storage and comms | 1.8 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Business services and Finance | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Government and other | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/second-estimate-of-gdp/q4-2014/index.html
Services contributed 0.4 percentage points to growth of GVA in IIQ2013, 0.5 percentage points in IIQ2013, 0.5 percentage points in IVQ2013, 0.6 percentage points in IQ2014, 0.8 percentage points in IIQ2014, 0.6 percentage points in IIIQ2014 and 0.6 percentage points in IVQ2014, as shown in Table VH-5. Business services and finance contributed 0.3 percentage points in IIIQ2013, 0.3 percentage points in IVQ2013, 0.2 percentage points in IQ2014, 0.4 percentage points in IIQ2014, 0.3 percentage points in IIIQ2014 and 0.3 percentage points in IVQ2014. Manufacturing did not contribute to growth in IQ2013 and production contributed 0.1 percentage points in IIQ2013. Manufacturing and production contributed 0.1 percentage points in IIIQ2013 and manufacturing contributed 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2013. Manufacturing contributed 0.1 percentage points in IQ2014 and total production 0.1 percentage points. Manufacturing and total production did not contribute in IIQ2014, IIIQ2014 and IVQ2014 with exception of 0.1 percentage points by manufacturing in IIQ2014.
Table VH-5, UK, Contribution to Quarter on Prior Quarter of Growth of Value Added by Output Components, %
| Component | 2013 Q1 | 2013 Q2 | 2013 Q3 | 2013 Q4 | 2014 Q1 | 2014 Q2 | 2014 Q3 | 2014 Q4 |
| Agriculture | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Total Production | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Mining & quarrying inc oil & gas extract | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Manufacturing | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Electricity, gas and air | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Water and Sewerage | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Construction | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.1 |
| Total Services | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Distn, hotels and catering | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Transport, storage and comms | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Business services and Finance | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Government and other | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/second-estimate-of-gdp/q4-2014/index.html
Table VH-6 provides UK growth of value added by output components in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier for 2013 and 2014. Total production and manufacturing fell in all four quarters of 2012 and in the first three quarters of 2013 relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Total production increased 1.9 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 2.2 percent in IQ2014 while manufacturing increased 1.3 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier, 2.7 percent in IQ2014, 2.9 percent in IIQ2014, 2.8 percent in IIIQ2014 and 2.4 percent in IVQ2014. Total services supported the economy with growth in all quarters relative to a year earlier from IQ2012 to IVQ2014. Construction fell sharply in all four quarters of 2012 and in the first quarter of 2013 relative to a year earlier with growth of 0.9 percent in IIQ2013, 5.0 percent in IIIQ2013, 5.1 percent in IVQ2013, 9.0 percent in IQ2014, 8.3 percent in IIQ2014, 7.3 percent in IIIQ2014 and 4.7 percent in IVQ2014.
Table VH-6, UK, Growth of Value Added by Output Components, ∆% on Same Quarter of Prior Year
| Component | 2013 Q1 | 2013 Q2 | 2013 Q3 | 2013 Q4 | 2014 Q1 | 2014 Q2 | 2014 Q3 | 2014 Q4 |
| GVA (Average) | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| Agriculture | -6.5 | -3.7 | -3.0 | -2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 3.1 |
| Total Production | -2.6 | -1.0 | -0.4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Mining & quarrying inc oil & gas extract | -9.7 | -4.3 | -1.1 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | -3.9 | -2.2 |
| Manufacturing | -2.4 | -0.8 | -0.8 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.4 |
| Electricity, gas and air | 8.8 | -0.5 | -3.0 | -3.8 | -10.6 | -8.0 | 0.1 | -4.3 |
| Water and Sewerage | -1.2 | 2.0 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 0.9 | -3.7 | -3.4 |
| Construction | -5.0 | 0.9 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 4.7 |
| Total Services | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
| Distn, hotels and catering | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 5.0 |
| Transport, storage and comms | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 4.9 |
| Business services and Finance | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.7 |
| Government and other | 0.7 | 0.4 | -0.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/second-estimate-of-gdp/q4-2014/index.html
Total production subtracted from growth of value added in all quarters of 2012 and the first three quarters of 2013 relative to a year earlier, contributing 0.3 percentage points in IVQ2013, 0.3 percentage points in IQ2014, 0.2 percentage points in IIQ2014, 0.1 percentage points in IIIQ2014 and 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2014, as shown in Table VH-7. Total services added to growth of value added in all four quarters of 2012 and all four quarters of 2013 relative to a year earlier. Total services contributed 2.4 percentage points to growth of value added in IIQ2014, 2.5 percentage points in IIIQ2014 and 2.6 percentage points in IVQ2014. Construction also deducted in all four quarters of 2012 and the first quarter of 2013 relative to a year earlier with contribution of 0.1 percentage points in IIQ2013, adding 0.3 percentage points in IIIQ2013 and 0.3 percentage points IVQ2013. Construction added 0.5 percentage points in IQ2014, 0.5 percentage points in IIQ2014, 0.4 percentage points in IVQ2014 and 0.3 percentage points in IVQ2014.
Table VH-7, UK, Contribution to Growth on Same Quarter of Prior Year of Value Added by Output Components, %
| Component | 2013 Q1 | 2013 Q2 | 2013 Q3 | 2013 Q4 | 2014 Q1 | 2014 Q2 | 2014 Q3 | 2014 Q4 |
| Agriculture | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Total Production | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Mining & quarrying inc oil & gas extract | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 |
| Manufacturing | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Electricity, gas and air | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Water and Sewerage | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Construction | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Total Services | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 |
| Distn, hotels and catering | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Transport, storage and comms | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Business services and Finance | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Government and other | 0.2 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/second-estimate-of-gdp/q4-2014/index.html
Quarter-on-quarter growth of value added by expenditure components is in Table VH-8. Household final consumption expenditure grew 0.6 percent in IIIQ2013 relative to IIQ2013, 0.4 percent in IVQ2013, 0.6 percent in IQ2014 and 0.5 percent in IIQ2014. Household final consumption expenditures grew 0.7 percent in IIIQ2014 and 0.5 percent in IVQ2014. General government consumption increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2013 and decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ201, growing 0.2 percent in IQ2014, 1.4 percent in IIQ2014, 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 and 0.0 percent in IVQ2014. Gross capital formation increased 12.3 percent in IIIQ2013 and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) increased 2.7 percent. Gross capital formation increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2013 and GFCF increased 2.3 percent. Gross capital formation decreased 0.1 percent in IQ2014 and GFCF increased 2.4 percent. Gross capital formation decreased 1.3 percent in IIQ2014 and GFCF increased 1.3 percent. Gross capital formation increased 4.6 percent in IIIQ2014 and GFCF 0.5 percent. Gross capital formation decreased 1.2 percent in IVQ2014 and GFCF decreased 0.5 percent. Exports grew fell 3.4 percent in IIIQ2013 while imports increased 1.9 percent in IIIQ2013. In IVQ2013, exports decreased 1.3 percent and imports decreased 1.4 percent. In IQ2014, exports increased 1.8 percent and imports increased 1.0 percent. In IIQ2014, exports fell 0.3 percent and imports fell 1.3 percent. Exports increased 0.8 percent in IIIQ2014 while imports increased 1.4 percent. In IVQ2014, exports increased 3.5 percent and imports 1.3 percent.
Table VH-8, UK, Quarter on Quarter Growth of Value Added by Expenditure Components, ∆% on Prior Quarter
| IVQ2013 | IQ2014 | IIQ2014 | IIIQ2014 | IV2014 | |
| HFC | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| NPISH | -1.0 | -0.1 | 1.7 | 1.1 | -3.3 |
| GOVT | -0.1 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| GCF | 0.8 | -0.1 | -1.3 | 4.6 | -1.2 |
| GFCF | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | -0.5 |
| BI | 2.7 | 1.3 | 3.4 | -1.2 | -1.4 |
| Exports | -1.3 | 1.8 | -0.3 | 0.8 | 3.5 |
| Less Imports | -1.4 | 1.0 | -1.3 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
HFC: Household Final Consumption; NPISH: NPISH Final Consumption; GOVT: General Government; GCF: Gross Capital Formation; GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation; BINV: Business Investment; EXP: Exports; IMP: Less Imports
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/second-estimate-of-gdp/q4-2014/index.html
Table VH-9 provides contributions to value added by expenditure components in a quarter relative to the prior quarter. In IIIQ2013, household final consumption expenditure contributed 0.3 percentage points to growth, 0.2 percentage points in IVQ2013, 0.4 percentage points in IQ2013 and 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2014. Household final consumption contributed 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2014 and 0.3 percentage points in IVQ2014. Net trade deducted 1.7 percentage points in IIIQ2013 and added 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2013. In IQ2014, net trade contributed 0.2 percentage points, contributing 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2014 and deducting 0.7 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 0.6 percentage points in IVQ2014. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) added 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2012, adding 0.4 percentage points in IVQ2013, 0.4 percentage points in IQ2014, 0.2 percentage points in IIQ2014 and 0.1 percentage points in IIIQ2014, deducting 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2014.
Table VH-9, UK, Contribution to Quarter on Prior Quarter of Growth of Value Added by Expenditure Components, %
| IVQ2013 | IQ2014 | IIQ2014 | IIIQ2014 | IVQ2014 | |
| HFC | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| NPISH | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -0.1 |
| GOVT | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| GCF | 0.1 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 0.8 | -0.2 |
| GFCF | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | -0.1 |
| BI | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| Exports | -0.4 | 0.5 | –0.1 | -0.2 | -1.0 |
| Less Imports | -0.5 | 0.3 | –0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Net Trade | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | -0.7 | 0.6 |
Components may not add because of rounding
HFC: Household Final Consumption; NPISH: NPISH Final Consumption; GOVT: General Government; GCF: Gross Capital Formation; GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation; BINV: Business Investment; EXP: Exports; IMP: Less Imports
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/second-estimate-of-gdp/q4-2014/index.html
Table VH-10 provides UK growth of value added by expenditure components in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Household final consumption expenditure grew 2.0 percent in IIIQ2013, 1.7 percent in IVQ2013 and 1.9 percent in IQ2014. Household final consumption grew 2.0 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier, 2.1 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 2.2 percent in IVQ2014. General government final consumption expenditure increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2013 and 0.0 percent in IVQ2013. General government consumption expenditure decreased 0.1 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier, 2.1 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 2.0 percent in IIIQ2014. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) increased 5.5 percent in IIIQ2013, increasing 6.8 percent in IVQ2013 and 8.2 percent in IQ2014. GFCF increased 8.9 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier, 6.4 percent in IIIQ2014 and 3.7 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. Exports changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2013 and imports grew 2.6 percent. In IVQ2013, exports increased 0.3 percent and imports increased 2.0 percent. Exports increased 1.4 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and imports 5.3 percent. Exports decreased 3.3 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 0.1 percent. Exports fell 0.7 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier while imports fell 0.3 percent. Exports increased 4.2 percent in IVQ2014 and imports increased 2.4 percent.
Table VH-10, UK, Growth of Value Added by Expenditure Components, ∆% on Same Quarter of Prior Year
| IVQ2013 | IQ2014 | IIQ2014 | IIIQ2014 | IVQ2014 | |
| HFC | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| NPISH | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 1.7 | -0.6 |
| GOVT | 0.0 | -0.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| GCF | 11.5 | 15.8 | 11.6 | 4.0 | 2.0 |
| GFCF | 6.8 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 |
| BI | 7.1 | 7.4 | 11.6 | 6.3 | 2.1 |
| Exports | 0.3 | 1.4 | -3.3 | -0.7 | 4.2 |
| Less Imports | 2.0 | 5.3 | 0.1 | -0.3 | 2.4 |
HFC: Household Final Consumption; NPISH: NPISH Final Consumption; GOVT: General Government; GCF: Gross Capital Formation; GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation; BINV: Business Investment; EXP: Exports; IMP: Less Imports
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/second-estimate-of-gdp/q4-2014/index.html
Table VH-11 provides contribution of value added by expenditure components in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier. In IIIQ2013, household final consumption added 1.2 percentage points, 1.2 percentage points in IVQ2013 and 1.2 percentage points in IQ2014. Household final consumption added 1.2 percentage points in IIQ2014, 1.3 percentage points in IIIQ2014 and 1.4 percentage points in IVQ2014. General government final consumption expenditure added 0.0 percentage points in IIIQ2013, 0.0 percentage points in IVQ2013 and 0.0 percentage points in IQ2014. General government final consumption added 0.4 percentage points in IIQ2014, 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2014 and 0.4 percentage points in IVQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.9 percentage points in IIIQ2013. In IVQ2013, net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points and deducted 1.3 percentage points in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 1.1 percentage points in growth of IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points to growth in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier, adding 0.5 percentage points in IVQ2014.
VH-11, UK, Contribution to Growth on Same Quarter of Prior Year of Value Added by Expenditure Components, %
| IVQ2013 | IQ2014 | IIQ2014 | IIIQ2014 | IVQ2014 | |
| HFC | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| NPISH | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| GOVT | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| GCF | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| GFCF | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| BI | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Exports | 0.1 | 0.4 | -1.1 | -0.2 | 1.3 |
| Less Imports | 0.7 | 1.7 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.8 |
| Net Trade | -0.6 | -1.3 | -1.1 | -0.1 | 0.5 |
Components may not add because of rounding
HFC: Household Final Consumption; NPISH: NPISH Final Consumption; GOVT: General Government; GCF: Gross Capital Formation; GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation; BINV: Business Investment; EXP: Exports; IMP: Less Imports
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/second-estimate-of-gdp/q4-2014/index.html
Table VH-12 provides growth of value added by expenditure components in a year relative to the prior year. Household final consumption expenditure grew 1.7 percent in 2013 and 2.1 percent in 2014. General government final consumption expenditure fell 0.3 percent in 2013 and increased 1.5 percent in 2014. Gross capital formation increased 4.7 percent in 2013 and 1.5 percent in 2014. GFCF increased 3.4 percent in 2013 and 6.8 percent in IVQ2014. Exports grew 1.5 percent in 2013 and 0.4 percent in 2014.
Table VH-12, UK, Growth of Value Added by Expenditure Components, ∆% on Prior Year
| 2013 | 2014 | |
| HFC | 1.7 | 2.1 |
| NPISH | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| GOVT | -0.3 | 1.5 |
| GCF | 4.7 | 8.0 |
| GFCF | 3.4 | 6.8 |
| BI | 5.3 | 6.8 |
| Exports | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| Less Imports | 1.4 | 1.8 |
HFC: Household Final Consumption; NPISH: NPISH Final Consumption; GOVT: General Government; GCF: Gross Capital Formation; GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation; BINV: Business Investment; EXP: Exports; IMP: Less Imports
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/second-estimate-of-gdp/q4-2014/index.html
Contributions of value added by expenditure components in a year relative to the prior year are in Table VH-13. Household final consumption added 1.1 percentage points in 2013 and1.3 percentage points in 2014. Gross capital formation contributed 0.8 percentage points in 2013 and 1.4 percentage points in 2014. GFCF added 0.5 percentage points in 2013 and 1.1 percentage points in 2014.
VH-13, UK, Contribution to Growth on Prior Year of Value Added by Expenditure Components, %
| 2013 | 2014 | |
| HFC | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| NPISH | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| GOVT | -0.1 | 0.3 |
| GCF | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| GFCF | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| BINV | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| Exports | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| Less Imports | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Net Trade | 0.0 | -0.5 |
HFC: Household Final Consumption; NPISH: NPISH Final Consumption; GOVT: General Government; GCF: Gross Capital Formation; GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation; BINV: Business Investment; EXP: Exports; IMP: Less Imports
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/second-estimate-of-gdp/q4-2014/index.html
© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015.
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