Global Exchange Rate Struggle, Recovery without Hiring, Ten Million Fewer Full-time Jobs, Youth and Middle Age Unemployment, United States International Trade, World Cyclical Slow Growth and Global Recession Risk: Part VI

 

Global Exchange Rate Struggle, Recovery without Hiring, Ten Million Fewer Full-time Jobs, Youth and Middle Age Unemployment, United States International Trade, World Cyclical Slow Growth and Global Recession Risk

Carlos M. Pelaez

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015

I Recovery without Hiring

IA1 Hiring Collapse

IA2 Labor Underutilization

ICA3 Ten Million Fewer Full-time Jobs

IA4 Theory and Reality of Cyclical Slow Growth Not Secular Stagnation: Youth and Middle-Age Unemployment

IIA United States International Trade

IIB Import and Export Prices

III World Financial Turbulence

IIIA Financial Risks

IIIE Appendix Euro Zone Survival Risk

IIIF Appendix on Sovereign Bond Valuation

IV Global Inflation

V World Economic Slowdown

VA United States

VB Japan

VC China

VD Euro Area

VE Germany

VF France

VG Italy

VH United Kingdom

VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets

VII Economic Indicators

VIII Interest Rates

IX Conclusion

References

Appendixes

Appendix I The Great Inflation

IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies

IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact

IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort

IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis

IIIGA Monetary Policy with Deficit Financing of Economic Growth

IIIGB Adjustment during the Debt Crisis of the 1980s

VC China. China estimates an index of nonmanufacturing purchasing managers based on a sample of 1200 nonmanufacturing enterprises across the country (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Table CIPMNM provides this index and components. The total index increased from 55.7 in Jan 2011 to 58.0 in Mar 2012, decreasing to 53.9 in Aug 2013. The index decreased from 56.0 in Nov 2013 to 54.6 in Dec 2013, easing to 53.4 in Jan 2014. The index moved to 53.9 in Feb 2015. The index of new orders increased from 52.2 in Jan 2012 to 54.3 in Dec 2012 but fell to 50.1 in May 2013, barely above the neutral frontier of 50.0. The index of new orders stabilized at 51.0 in Nov-Dec 2013, easing to 50.9 in Jan 2014. The index of new orders moved to 51.2 in Feb 2015.

Table CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted

	Total Index	New Orders	Interm. Input Prices	Subs Prices	Exp
Feb 2015	53.9	51.2	52.5	51.2	58.7
Jan	53.7	50.2	47.6	46.9	59.6
Dec 2014	54.1	50.5	50.1	47.3	59.5
Nov	53.9	50.1	50.6	47.7	59.7
Oct	53.8	51.0	52.0	48.8	59.9
Sep	54.0	49.5	49.8	47.3	60.9
Aug	54.4	50.0	52.2	48.3	61.2
Jul	54.2	50.7	53.4	49.5	61.5
Jun	55.0	50.7	56.0	50.8	60.4
May	55.5	52.7	54.5	49.0	60.7
Apr	54.8	50.8	52.4	49.4	61.5
Mar	54.5	50.8	52.8	49.5	61.5
Feb	55.0	51.4	52.1	49.0	59.9
Jan	53.4	50.9	54.5	50.1	58.1
Dec 2013	54.6	51.0	56.9	52.0	58.7
Nov	56.0	51.0	54.8	49.5	61.3
Oct	56.3	51.6	56.1	51.4	60.5
Sep	55.4	53.4	56.7	50.6	60.1
Aug	53.9	50.9	57.1	51.2	62.9
Jul	54.1	50.3	58.2	52.4	63.9
Jun	53.9	50.3	55.0	50.6	61.8
May	54.3	50.1	54.4	50.7	62.9
Apr	54.5	50.9	51.1	47.6	62.5
Mar	55.6	52.0	55.3	50.0	62.4
Feb	54.5	51.8	56.2	51.1	62.7
Jan	56.2	53.7	58.2	50.9	61.4
Dec 2012	56.1	54.3	53.8	50.0	64.6
Nov	55.6	53.2	52.5	48.4	64.6
Oct	55.5	51.6	58.1	50.5	63.4
Sep	53.7	51.8	57.5	51.3	60.9
Aug	56.3	52.7	57.6	51.2	63.2
Jul	55.6	53.2	49.7	48.7	63.9
Jun	56.7	53.7	52.1	48.6	65.5
May	55.2	52.5	53.6	48.5	65.4
Apr	56.1	52.7	57.9	50.3	66.1
Mar	58.0	53.5	60.2	52.0	66.6
Feb	57.3	52.7	59.0	51.2	63.8
Jan	55.7	52.2	58.2	51.1	65.3

Notes: Interm.: Intermediate; Subs: Subscription; Exp: Business Expectations

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart CIPMNM provides China’s nonmanufacturing purchasing managers’ index. The index fell from 56.0 in Oct 2013 to 53.9 in Feb 2015.

Chart CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Table CIPMMFG provides the index of purchasing managers of manufacturing seasonally adjusted of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The general index (IPM) rose from 50.5 in Jan 2012 to 53.3 in Apr 2012, falling to 49.2 in Aug 2012, rebounding to 50.6 in Dec 2012. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013, barely above the neutral frontier at 50.0, recovering to 51.4 in Nov 2013 but falling to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.5 in Jan 2014, 50.1 in Dec 2014 and 49.9 in Feb 2015. The index of new orders fell from 54.5 in Apr 2012 to 51.2 in Dec 2012. The index of new orders fell from 52.3 in Nov 2013 to 52.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.9 in Jan 2014 and moved to 50.4 in Dec 2014. The index moved to 50.4 in Feb 2015.

Table CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted

	IPM	PI	NOI	INV	EMP	SDEL
2015
Feb	49.9	51.4	50.4	48.2	47.8	49.9
Jan	49.8	51.7	50.2	47.3	47.9	50.2
2014
Dec	50.1	52.2	50.4	47.5	48.1	49.9
Nov	50.3	52.5	50.9	47.7	48.2	50.3
Oct	50.8	53.1	51.6	48.4	48.4	50.1
Sep	51.1	53.6	52.2	48.8	48.2	50.1
Aug	51.1	53.2	52.5	48.6	48.2	50.0
Jul	51.7	54.2	53.6	49.0	48.3	50.2
Jun	51.0	53.0	52.8	48.0	48.6	50.5
May	50.8	52.8	52.3	48.0	48.2	50.3
Apr	50.4	52.5	51.2	48.1	48.3	50.1
Mar	50.3	52.7	50.6	47.8	48.3	49.8
Feb	50.2	52.6	50.5	47.4	48.0	49.9
Jan	50.5	53.0	50.9	47.8	48.2	49.8
Dec 2013	51.0	53.9	52.0	47.6	48.7	50.5
Nov	51.4	54.5	52.3	47.8	49.6	50.6
Oct	51.4	54.4	52.5	48.6	49.2	50.8
Sep	51.1	52.9	52.8	48.5	49.1	50.8
Aug	51.0	52.6	52.4	48.0	49.3	50.4
Jul	50.3	52.4	50.6	47.6	49.1	50.1
Jun	50.1	52.0	50.4	47.4	48.7	50.3
May	50.8	53.3	51.8	47.6	48.8	50.8
Apr	50.6	52.6	51.7	47.5	49.0	50.8
Mar	50.9	52.7	52.3	47.5	49.8	51.1
Feb	50.1	51.2	50.1	49.5	47.6	48.3
Jan	50.4	51.3	51.6	50.1	47.8	50.0
Dec 2012	50.6	52.0	51.2	47.3	49.0	48.8
Nov	50.6	52.5	51.2	47.9	48.7	49.9
Oct	50.2	52.1	50.4	47.3	49.2	50.1
Sep	49.8	51.3	49.8	47.0	48.9	49.5
Aug	49.2	50.9	48.7	45.1	49.1	50.0
Jul	50.1	51.8	49.0	48.5	49.5	49.0
Jun	50.2	52.0	49.2	48.2	49.7	49.1
May	50.4	52.9	49.8	45.1	50.5	49.0
Apr	53.3	57.2	54.5	48.5	51.0	49.6
Mar	53.1	55.2	55.1	49.5	51.0	48.9
Feb	51.0	53.8	51.0	48.8	49.5	50.3
Jan	50.5	53.6	50.4	49.7	47.1	49.7

IPM: Index of Purchasing Managers; PI: Production Index; NOI: New Orders Index; EMP: Employed Person Index; SDEL: Supplier Delivery Time Index

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

China estimates the manufacturing index of purchasing managers on the basis of a sample of 820 enterprises (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Chart CIPMMFG provides the manufacturing index of purchasing managers. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013. The index decreased from 51.4 in Nov 2013 to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index moved to 49.9 in Feb 2015.

Chart CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Table VD-1, Euro Area, Unemployment Rate and Number of Unemployed, % and Millions, SA 

	Unemployment Rate %	Number Unemployed Millions
Jan 2015	11.2	18.059
Dec 2014	11.3	18.199
Nov	11.4	18.408
Oct	11.5	18.419
Sep	11.5	18.455
Aug	11.5	18.468
Jul	11.6	18.603
Jun	11.5	18.526
May	11.6	18.625
Apr	11.6	18.631
Mar	11.7	18.764
Feb	11.8	18.814
Jan	11.8	18.954
Dec 2013	11.9	18.980
Nov	11.9	19.075
Oct	11.9	19.128
Sep	12.0	19.246
Aug	12.0	19.228
Jul	12.0	19.220
Jun	12.0	19.283
May	12.1	19.305
Apr	12.0	19.296
Mar	12.0	19.243
Feb	12.0	19.255
Jan	12.0	19.208
Dec 2012	11.9	18.986
Nov	11.8	18.885
Oct	11.7	18.784
Sep	11.5	18.510
Aug	11.5	18.369
Jul	11.4	18.339
Jun	11.4	18.267
May	11.3	18.049
Apr	11.2	17.876
Mar	11.0	17.608
Feb	10.9	17.334
Jan	10.7	17.114
Dec 2011	10.7	17.058
Nov	10.6	16.926
Oct	10.4	16.613
Sep	10.4	16.482
Aug	10.2	16.250
Jul	10.1	16.089
Jun	10.0	15.875
May	10.0	15.828
Apr	9.9	15.688
Mar	10.0	15.773
Feb	10.0	15.800
Jan	10.1	15.912
Dec 2010	10.1	15.999

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

Cumulative growth of China’s GDP in IVQ2014 relative to the same period in 2013 was 7.4 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDP. Secondary industry accounts for 42.6 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2014. In cumulative IVQ2014, industry accounts for 35.8 percent of GDP and construction for 7.0 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 48.2 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2014 and primary industry for 9.2 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is shifting to lower growth rates with improvement in living standards. The bottom block of Table VC-GDP provides quarter-on-quarter growth rates of GDP and their annual equivalent. China’s GDP growth decelerated significantly from annual equivalent 10.4 percent in IIQ2011 to 7.4 percent in IVQ2011 and 5.7 percent in IQ2012, rebounding to 8.7 percent in IIQ2012, 8.2 percent in IIIQ2012 and 7.8 percent in IVQ2012. Annual equivalent growth in IQ2013 fell to 7.0 percent and to 7.4 percent in IIQ2013, rebounding to 9.5 percent in IIIQ2013. Annual equivalent growth was 7.4 percent in IVQ2013, declining to 6.6 percent in IQ2014 and increasing to 7.8 percent in IIQ2014. Annual equivalent growth slowed to 7.8 percent in IIIQ2014 and 6.1 percent in IVQ2014.

Table VC-GDP, China, Quarterly Growth of GDP, Current CNY 100 Million and Inflation Adjusted ∆%

Cumulative GDP IVQ2014	Value Current CNY Billion	2014 Year-on-Year Constant Prices ∆%
GDP	63,646.3	7.4
Primary Industry	5833.2	4.1
Farming	6015.1	4.2
Secondary Industry	27,139.2	7.3
Industry	22,799.1	7.0
Construction	4472.5	8.9
Tertiary Industry	30,673.9	8.1
Transport, Storage, Post	2875.0	7.0
Wholesale, Retail Trades	6221.6	9.5
Accommodation and Restaurants	1119.9	6.2
Finance	4695.4	10.2
Real Estate	3816.7	2.3
Other	11631.1	8.8
Growth in Quarter Relative to Prior Quarter	∆% on Prior Quarter	∆% Annual Equivalent
2014
IVQ2014	1.5	6.1
IIIQ2014	1.9	7.8
IIQ2014	1.9	7.8
IQ2014	1.6	6.6
2013
IVQ2013	1.8	7.4
IIIQ2013	2.3	9.5
IIQ2013	1.8	7.4
IQ2013	1.7	7.0
2012
IVQ2012	1.9	7.8
IIIQ2012	2.0	8.2
IIQ2012	2.1	8.7
IQ2012	1.4	5.7
2011
IVQ2011	1.8	7.4
IIIQ2011	2.2	9.1
IIQ2011	2.5	10.4
IQ2011	2.3	9.5

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Growth of China’s GDP in IVQ2014 relative to the same period in 2013 was 7.3 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDPA. Secondary industry accounts for 42.6 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2014. In cumulative IVQ2014, industry accounts for 35.8 percent of GDP and construction for 7.0 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 48.2 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2014 and primary industry for 9.2 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is changing to lower growth rates while improving living standards. GDP growth decelerated from 12.1 percent in IQ2010 and 11.2 percent in IIQ2010 to 7.8 percent in IQ2013, 7.5 percent in IIQ2013 and 7.9 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP grew 7.6 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to IIIQ2013, which is equivalent to 7.4 percent per year. GDP grew 7.4 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.6 percent in IQ2014 that is equivalent to 6.6 percent per year. GP grew 7.5 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.9 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is equivalent 7.8 percent. In IIIQ2014, GDP grew 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier and 1.9 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is 7.8 percent in annual equivalent. GDP grew 1.5 percent in IVQ2014, which is 6.1 percent in annual equivalent and 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier.

Table VC-GDPA, China, Growth Rate of GDP, ∆% Relative to a Year Earlier and ∆% Relative to Prior Quarter

	IQ 2013	IIQ 2013	IIIQ 2013	IVQ 2013	IQ 2014	IIQ 2014	IIIQ 2014	IVQ 2014
GDP	7.8	7.5	7.9	7.6	7.4	7.5	7.3	7.3
Primary Industry	3.4	3.0	3.4	4.0	3.5	3.9	4.2	4.1
Secondary Industry	7.8	7.6	7.8	7.8	7.3	7.4	7.4	7.3
Tertiary Industry	8.3	8.3	8.4	8.3	7.1	8.0	7.9	8.1
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.7	1.8	2.3	1.8	1.6	1.9	1.9	1.5
	IQ 2011	IIQ 2011	IIIQ 2011	IVQ 2011	IQ  2012	IIQ 2012	IIIQ 2012	IVQ 2012
GDP	9.7	9.5	9.1	8.9	8.1	7.6	7.4	7.9
Primary Industry	3.5	3.2	3.8	4.5	3.8	4.3	4.2	4.5
Secondary Industry	11.1	11.0	10.8	10.6	9.1	8.3	8.1	8.1
Tertiary Industry	9.1	9.2	9.0	8.9	7.5	7.7	7.9	8.1
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	2.3	2.5	2.2	1.8	1.4	2.1	2.0	1.9
	IQ 2010	IIQ 2010	IIIQ 2010	IVQ 2010
GDP	12.1	11.2	10.7	12.1
Primary Industry	3.8	3.6	4.0	3.8
Secondary Industry	14.5	13.3	12.6	14.5
Tertiary Industry	10.5	9.9	9.7	10.5

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart VC-GDP of the National Bureau of Statistics of China provides annual value and growth rates of GDP. China’s GDP growth in 2013 is still high at 7.7 percent but at the lowest rhythm in five years.

Chart VC-GDP, China, Gross Domestic Product, Million Yuan and ∆%, 2009-2013

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart VC-FXR provides China’s foreign exchange reserves. FX reserves grew from $2399.2 billion in 2009 to $3821.3 billion in 2013 driven by high growth of China’s trade surplus.

Chart VC-FXR, China, Foreign Exchange Reserves, 2009-2013

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Chart VC-Trade provides China’s imports and exports. Exports exceeded imports with resulting large trade balance surpluses that increased foreign exchange reserves.

Chart VC-Trade, China, Imports and Exports of Goods, 2009-2013, $100 Million US Dollars

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) compiled by Markit (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/a7d8d6168eec42029dd64eb08292a5ee) is improving. The overall Flash HSBC China Manufacturing PMI^™ increased from 49.7 in Jan to 50.1 in Feb, while the Flash HSBC China Manufacturing Output Index increased from 50.3 in Jan to 50.8 in Feb, indicating moderate growth. Exports orders indicate contraction. Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds need for monetary/fiscal stimulus supporting growth (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/a7d8d6168eec42029dd64eb08292a5ee). The HSBC China Services PMI^™, compiled by Markit, shows the HSBC Composite Output, combining manufacturing and services, increasing from 51.0 in Jan to 51.8 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/bec13309543745349f9bb6a462d26c14). Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds that increase of new orders suggests future growth (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/bec13309543745349f9bb6a462d26c14). The HSBC China Services Business Activity index increased from 51.8 in Jan to 52.0 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/bec13309543745349f9bb6a462d26c14). Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds that the services PMI shows sustained activity at modest pace (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/bec13309543745349f9bb6a462d26c14). The HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™), compiled by Markit, increased to 50.7 in Feb from 49.7 in Jan, indicating moderate improvement in manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/bc53a64bf226406d94fcc16284db2bbe). New export orders declined modestly. Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds improvement in manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/bc53a64bf226406d94fcc16284db2bbe). Table CNY provides the country data table for China.

Table CNY, China, Economic Indicators

Price Indexes for Industry	Feb 12-month ∆%: minus 4.8 Feb month ∆%: -0.7 Blog 3/15/15
Consumer Price Index	Feb 12-month ∆%: 1.4 Feb month ∆%: 1.2 Blog 3/15/15
Value Added of Industry	Feb month ∆%: 0.45 Jan-Feb 2015/Jan-Feb 2014 ∆%: 6.8 Blog 3/15/15
GDP Growth Rate	Year IVQ2014 ∆%: 7.3 First Four Quarters 2014 ∆%: 7.4 Quarter IIIQ2014 AE ∆%: 6.1 Blog 1/25/15
Investment in Fixed Assets	Total Jan-Feb 2015 ∆%: 13.9 Real estate development: 10.4 Blog 3/15/15
Retail Sales	Feb month ∆%: 1.01 Jan-Feb 12 month ∆%: NA Jan-Feb ∆%: 0.03 Blog 3/15/15
Trade Balance	Feb balance $60.62 billion Exports 12M ∆% 48.3 Imports 12M ∆% -20.5 Cumulative Feb 2015: $120.5 billion Blog 3/15/15

Links to blog comments in Table CNY:

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy

Cumulative and 12-months rates of value added of industry in China are provided in Table VC-1. Industry’s value added grew 6.8 percent in Jan-Feb 2015 relative to a year earlier and 7.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2014. Value added of industry increased 8.3 percent in Jan-Dec 2014 relative to a year earlier and 7.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2014. Value added of industry increased 8.3 percent in Jan-Nov 2014 relative to a year earlier and 7.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2014. Value added of industry grew 8.4 percent in Jan-Oct 2014 relative to a year earlier and 7.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014. Value added of industry grew 8.5 percent in Jan-Sep 2014 relative to a year earlier and 8.0 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing grew 7.5 percent in Jan-Feb 2015 relative to a year earlier and 8.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2014. Mining and quarrying grew 4.2 percent in Jan-Feb 2015 relative to a year earlier and 3.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2014. Growth of total industry decelerated from cumulative 14.4 percent in Jan-Mar 2011 to 9.7 percent in Jan-Dec 2013, 8.3 percent in Jan-Dec 2014 and 6.8 percent in Jan-Feb 2015.

Table VC-1, China, Growth Rate of Value Added of Industry ∆%

	Industry	Mining & Quarrying	Manufac-turing	State Owned	Joint-Stock
2015
Jan-Feb	6.8	4.2	7.5	2.2	7.7
2014
Jan-Dec	8.3	4.5	9.4	4.9	9.7
12M Dec	7.9	3.4	8.9	3.8	9.3
Jan-Nov	8.3	4.6	9.4	5.0	9.7
12M Nov	7.2	3.0	8.1	2.8	8.7
Jan-Oct	8.4	4.8	9.5	5.2	9.8
12M Oct	7.7	4.7	8.5	5.5	9.1
Jan-Sep	8.5	4.8	9.6	5.2	9.9
12M Sep	8.0	3.9	9.1	4.8	9.3
Jan-Aug	8.5	4.9	9.7	5.3	10.0
12M Aug	6.9	4.2	8.0	4.0	9.7
Jan-Jul	8.8	5.0	9.9	5.5	3.4
12M Jul	9.0	6.2	10.0	5.8	4.4
Jan-Jun	8.8	4.6	9.9	5.5	10.2
12M Jun	9.2	7.9	9.8	7.3	10.8
Jan-May	8.7	3.8	9.9	5.1	10.1
12M May	8.8	4.3	9.9	6.1	10.3
Jan-Apr	8.7	3.6	9.9	4.8	10.1
12M Apr	8.7	4.5	9.8	5.7	10.3
Jan-Mar	8.7	3.3	9.9	4.5	10.0
12 M Mar	8.8	2.9	9.9	4.6	10.1
Jan-Feb	8.6	3.5	9.8	4.4	9.9
2013
Jan-Dec	9.7	6.4	10.5	6.9	11.0
12M Dec	9.7	5.4	10.7	8.3	10.8
Jan-Nov	9.7	6.4	10.5	6.8	4.4
12M Nov	10.0	5.6	11.0	9.1	2.4
Jan-Oct	9.7	6.5	10.4	6.5	11.0
12M Oct	10.3	4.3	11.4	8.4	11.1
Jan-Sep	9.6	6.7	10.3	6.3	11.0
12M Sep	10.2	4.9	11.1	7.8	11.1
Jan-Aug	9.5	6.9	10.2	6.1	11.0
12M Aug	10.4	5.8	10.9	9.5	11.7
Jan-Jul	9.4	7.1	10.1	5.6	10.9
12M Jun	9.7	5.5	10.5	8.1	11.1
Jan-Jun	9.3	7.3	10.0	5.2	10.9
12M Jun	8.9	5.8	9.6	6.3	10.5
Jan-May	9.4	8.5	9.7	4.9	11.0
12M May	9.2	8.0	9.8	4.4	10.7
Jan-Apr	9.4	8.6	9.7	4.9	11.1
12 M Apr	9.3	8.5	9.6	4.3	10.9
Jan-Mar	9.5	8.7	9.8	5.2	11.3
12 M Mar	8.9	8.2	9.1	4.3	11.0
Jan-Feb	9.9	9.1	10.2	5.8	11.4
2012
Jan-Dec 2012	10.0	10.1	9.9	6.4	11.8
12 M Dec	10.3	9.6	10.6	8.0	12.1
Jan-Nov	10.0	10.2	9.8	6.3	11.8
12 M Nov	10.1	9.2	10.5	7.2	11.8
Jan-Oct	10.0	10.3	9.7	6.4	11.8
12 M Oct	9.6	9.1	9.7	7.0	11.7
Jan-Sep	10.0	10.4	9.7	6.3	11.8
12 M  Sep	9.2	9.0	9.3	6.3	11.0
Jan-Aug	10.1	10.5	9.8	6.3	15.4
12 M Aug	8.9	8.6	9.0	5.3	14.3
Jan-Jul	10.3	10.8	9.9	6.6	12.1
12 M Jul	9.2	10.1	8.8	4.8	10.9
Jan-Jun	10.5	11.1	10.1	7.0	12.4
12 M Jun	9.5	9.0	9.6	6.5	11.5
Jan-May	10.7	11.5	10.3	6.7	12.4
12 M May	9.6	9.1	9.8	6.6	11.0
Jan-Apr	11.0	12.3	10.5	6.6	12.9
12 M Apr	9.3	10.3	8.9	4.3	10.7
Jan-Mar	11.6	13.2	11.0	7.2	13.8
12 M Mar	11.9	13.9	11.2	8.0	13.7
Jan-Feb	11.4	12.7	10.9	7.3	13.9
2011
Jan-Dec	13.9	13.0	14.3	9.9	15.8
12 M Dec	12.8	12.6	13.0	9.2	14.7
Jan-Nov	14.0	13.0	14.4	9.9	16.0
12 M Nov	12.4	12.4	12.4	7.8	14.4
Jan-Oct	14.1	13.0	14.5	10.1	9.1
12 M Oct	13.2	12.1	13.7	8.9	15.1
Jan-Sep	14.2	13.1	14.6	10.4	16.1
12 M Sep	13.8	12.8	14.3	9.9	16.0
Jan-Aug	14.2	13.1	14.6	10.4	16.1
12 M Aug	13.5	13.4	13.5	9.4	15.5
Jan-Jul	14.3
12 M Jul	14.0	12.8	14.5	9.5
Jan-Jun	14.3	13.1	14.7	10.7	19.7
12 M Jun	15.1	13.9	15.6	10.7	20.8
Jan-May	14.0	12.9	14.4	10.7	19.3
12 M May	13.3	12.9	13.5	8.9	18.7
Jan-Apr	14.2	12.9	14.7	11.2	19.5
12 M Apr	13.4	11.9	14.0	10.4	18.0
Jan-Mar	14.4	13.1	14.9	11.4	19.8
12 M Mar	14.8	12.8	15.6	12.9	19.2
12 M Feb	14.9	13.1	15.6	10.5	21.7
Jan-Feb	14.1	13.3	14.4	10.6	20.3

*After Jun 2013 Heavy Industry is Manufacturing and Light Industry is Mining and Quarrying

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart VC-1 provides 12-month percentage changes of value added of industry in China. The yearly rate of industry fell from 9.7 percent in Dec 2013 to 7.9 percent in Dec 2014 and 6.8 percent in Jan-Feb 2015.

Chart VC-1, China, Growth Rate of Total Value Added of Industry, 12-Month ∆%

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Yearly rates of growth for the past 12 months and cumulative relative to the earlier year of various segments of industrial production in China are provided in Table VC-2. There is deceleration to 1.9 percent of electricity output in Jan-Feb 2015 relative to a year earlier and increase of 1.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2014. There are weaker readings in most segments with exception of 11.2 percent for cement. Rates from Jan to Dec 2011 relative to the same period a year earlier fluctuated but remained mostly above 10 percent with the exception of motor vehicles and crude oil. There is deceleration in Jan-Dec 2012 of percentage change with no segment showing growth exceeding 10 percent with exception of 12-month growth of 13.5 percent for pig iron and 16.7 percent for nonferrous metals. In Jan-Sep 2013, many segments grew at rates exceeding or around 10 percent with exception of electricity at 6.8 percent, crude oil at 4.2 percent and pig iron at 6.9 percent. Electricity fell from growth of 16.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2011 to 0.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2012, rebounding to 4.8 percent in Aug 2012 but declining to 1.5 percent in Sep 2012, increasing to 3.9 percent in Oct 2012, 7.9 percent in Nov 2012 and 7.6 percent in Dec 2012. Electricity grew 6.8 percent in Jan-Jul 2013 relative to a year earlier and increased 8.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2013. Electricity output increased 7.6 percent in Jan-Dec 2013 relative to a year earlier and 8.3 percent in 12 months ending in Dec 2013. Auto production jumped to 18.4 percent in Jan-Dec 2013 relative to a year earlier and 22.8 percent in 12 months ending in Dec 2013.

Table VC-2, China, Industrial Production Operation ∆%

	Elec- tricity	Pig Iron	Cement	Crude Oil	Non- ferrous Metals	Autos
2015
Jan-Feb	1.9	0.0	11.2	3.5	6.8	4.6
2014
Jan-Dec	3.2	0.5	1.8	5.3	7.2	7.1
12M Dec	1.3	3.7	-1.4	6.3	15.4	3.7
Jan-Nov	3.9	0.4	1.9	4.7	6.2	8.4
12M Nov	0.6	0.9	-4.0	5.5	7.9	2.6
Jan-Oct	4.2	0.1	2.5	4.5	6.5	9.0
12M Oct	1.9	-3.1	-1.1	6.3	4.8	6.8
Jan-Sep	4.4	0.4	3.0	4.2	6.6	9.3
12M Sep	4.1	-0.5	-2.2	9.1	8.2	4.5
Jan-Aug	4.4	0.5	3.5	2.6	6.4	9.9
12M Aug	-2.2	0.2	3.0	1.0	9.5	3.1
Jan-Jul	5.5	0.4	3.7	2.8	5.9	10.9
12M Jul	3.3	-0.6	3.5	2.0	7.8	10.5
Jan-Jun	5.8	0.5	3.6	2.9	5.4	10.9
12 M Jun	5.7	2.3	0.8	5.8	4.6	11.2
Jan-May	5.7	0.2	4.1	2.3	4.9	10.8
12 M May	5.9	0.2	3.2	3.5	3.6	12.2
Jan-Apr	5.6	0.2	4.3	1.8	5.4	8.3
12 M Apr	4.4	-0.8	3.9	3.8	4.3	7.9
Jan-Mar	5.8	0.1	4.0	0.7	6.7	10.8
12 M Mar	6.2	-0.9	5.9	2.6	7.1	7.3
Jan-Feb	5.5	0.2	2.4	-1.0	6.1	12.5
2013
Jan-Dec	7.6	6.2	9.6	3.3	9.9	18.4
12M Dec	8.3	5.9	10.8	0.2	2.3	22.8
Jan-Nov	7.0	5.9	9.2	3.6	10.5	18.1
12M Nov	6.8	0.6	10.0	-0.6	13.7	25.6
Jan-Oct	7.0	6.5	9.0	4.1	10.3	17.2
12M Oct	8.4	7.7	8.9	3.1	12.9	25.5
Jan-Sep	6.8	6.9	8.9	4.2	9.8	15.3
12M Sep	8.2	11.2	6.4	-1.2	10.1	17.5
Jan-Aug	6.4	6.6	9.2	4.7	9.7	15.1
12M Aug	13.4	11.1	8.2	5.5	5.7	14.8
Jan-Jul	5.2	6.0	9.6	4.5	10.3	15.1
12 M Jul	8.1	5.0	9.1	7.1	9.8	15.4
Jan-Jun	4.4	5.7	9.7	4.1	10.0	15.2
12 M Jun	6.0	2.9	8.8	10.8	6.7	13.5
Jan-May	4.0	10.8	8.9	2.9	10.9	15.4
12 M May	4.1	11.3	8.5	2.4	7.5	15.7
Jan-Apr	3.8	10.5	8.4	3.2	11.4	15.4
12 M Apr	6.2	8.1	8.7	2.5	10.3	18.3
Jan-Mar	2.9	12.3	8.2	4.3	10.6	13.5
12 M Mar	2.1	9.2	6.9	5.5	9.9	12.4
Jan-Feb	3.4	14.2	10.8	3.0	13.5	12.4
2012
Jan-Dec	4.7	7.7	7.4	3.7	9.3	6.3
12 M Dec	7.6	13.5	5.4	8.4	16.7	5.3
Jan-Nov	4.4	7.2	7.5	3.2	8.4	6.5
12 M Nov	7.9	16.5	9.4	9.1	15.2	3.9
Jan-Oct	3.9	6.3	6.7	2.6	7.7	6.9
12 M Oct	6.4	11.7	11.5	6.7	14.0	3.8
Jan-Sep	3.6	5.7	6.7	2.2	7.1	7.3
12 M Sep	1.5	4.9	12.0	7.0	7.1	6.3
Jan-Aug	3.8	-0.5	8.7	2.5	13.8	10.4
12 M Aug	4.8	2.6	5.9	-0.4	13.8	9.7
Jan-Jul	3.8	6.1	5.3	1.6	6.7	7.4
12M Jul	2.1	6.5	6.1	1.1	4.1	12.3
Jan-Jun	3.7	6.1	5.5	1.7	6.7	6.7
12 M Jun	0.0	6.7	6.5	-0.6	5.8	13.8
Jan-May	4.7	6.3	5.0	2.2	5.1	6.2
12 M May	2.7	6.3	4.3	0.7	6.6	18.5
Jan-Apr	5.0	6.2	5.5	2.9	4.6	3.1
12 M Apr	0.7	7.9	4.9	-0.3	2.3	10.7
Jan-Mar	7.1	6.5	7.3	3.1	5.8	0.0
12 M Mar	7.2	10.2	7.9	2.0	3.3	5.1
Jan-Feb	7.1	4.6	4.8	4.0	8.4	-1.8
2011
Jan-Dec	12.0	8.4	16.1	4.9	10.6	3.0
12 M Dec	9.7	3.7	7.0	4.0	13.2	-6.5
Jan-Nov	12.0	13.1	17.2	5.3	10.2	3.9
12 M Nov	8.5	7.8	11.2	3.2	8.2	-1.3
Jan-Oct	12.3	13.7	18.0	5.4	10.4	5.2
12 M Oct	9.3	13.4	16.5	-0.9	3.7	1.3
Jan-Sep	12.7	13.9	18.1	6.0	11.2	5.5
12 M Sep	11.5	18.8	15.7	1.5	13.9	2.5
Jan-Aug	13.0	13.1	18.4	6.6		4.7
12 M Aug	10.0	12.9	12.8	4.5	15.6	9.5
Jan-Jul	13.3	13.0	19.2	6.9	9.9	4.0
12 M Jul	13.2	14.9	16.8	5.9	9.8	-1.3
12 M Jun	16.2	14.8	19.9	-0.7	9.8	3.6
12 M May	12.1	10.6	19.2	6.0	14.2	-1.9
12 M Apr	11.7	8.3	22.4	6.8	6.1	-1.6
12 M Mar	14.8	13.7	29.8	8.0	11.6	9.9
12 M Feb	11.7	14.5	9.1	10.9	14.4	10.3
12 M Jan	5.1	3.5	16.4	12.2	1.4	23.9
12 M Dec 2010	5.6	4.6	17.3	10.3	-1.9	27.6

M: month

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Monthly growth rates of industrial production in China are provided in Table VC-3. Monthly rates have fluctuated around 1 percent. Jan and Feb 2012 are somewhat weaker but there was improvement to 1.25 percent in Mar 2012. The rate of 0.33 percent in Apr 2012 is the lowest in the monthly series from Feb 2011 to Dec 2014. Monthly sales growth remained below 1 percent in all months from Jan 2012 to Dec 2013 with the exception of Mar 2012. Value added of industry increased 0.47 percent in Jan 2015 and 0.45 percent in Feb 2015.

Table VC-3, China, Industrial Production Operation, Month ∆%

2011	Month ∆%
Feb	0.93
Mar	0.99
Apr	1.32
May	0.79
Jun	1.30
Jul	0.82
Aug	0.85
Sep	0.95
Oct	0.71
Nov	0.68
Dec	0.94
Jan 2012	0.50
Feb	0.61
Mar	1.25
Apr	0.33
May	0.89
Jun	0.83
Jul	0.59
Aug	0.61
Sep	0.89
Oct	0.76
Nov	0.86
Dec	0.90
Jan 2013	0.61
Feb	0.78
Mar	0.72
Apr	0.80
May	0.74
Jun	0.62
Jul	0.90
Aug	1.09
Sep	0.54
Oct	0.81
Nov	0.73
Dec	0.51
Jan 2014	0.55
Feb	0.58
Mar	0.88
Apr	0.60
May	0.63
Jun	0.67
Jul	0.62
Aug	0.20
Sep	0.85
Oct	0.48
Nov	0.48
Dec	0.72
Jan 2015	0.47
Feb	0.45

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Table VC-4 provides cumulative growth of investment in fixed assets in China in Jan-Dec 2011, Jan-Dec 2012, Jan-Dec 2013, Jan-Dec 2014 and Jan-Feb 2015 relative to a year earlier. Total fixed investment had grown at a high rate fluctuating around 25 percent and fixed investment in real estate development has grown at rates in excess of 30 percent but rates have declined significantly to still quite high percentages. In Jan-Feb 2015, investment in fixed assets in China grew 13.9 percent relative to a year earlier and 10.4 percent in real estate development. There was slight deceleration in the final two months of 2011 that continued into Jan-Dec 2013, Jan-Dec 2014 and Jan-Feb 2015.

Table VC-4, China, Investment in Fixed Assets ∆% Relative to a Year Earlier

	Total	State	Real Estate Development
Jan-Feb 2015	13.9	13.7	10.4
Jan-Dec 2014	15.7	13.0	10.5
Jan-Nov	15.8	13.7	11.9
Jan-Oct	15.9	14.0	12.4
Jan-Sep	16.1	14.1	12.5
Jan-Aug	16.5	14.2	13.2
Jan-Jul	17.0	14.7	13.7
Jan-Jun	17.3	14.8	14.1
Jan-May	17.2	15.1	14.7
Jan-Apr	17.3	14.4	16.4
Jan-Mar	17.6	14.5	16.8
Jan-Feb	17.9	NA	19.3
Jan-Dec 2013	19.6	16.3	19.8
Jan-Nov	19.9	16.8	19.5
Jan-Oct	20.1	17.1	19.2
Jan-Sep	20.2	17.6	19.7
Jan-Aug	20.3	NA	19.3
Jan-Jul	20.1	17.5	20.5
Jan-Jun	20.1	17.5	20.3
Jan-May	20.4	17.7	20.6
Jan-Apr	20.6	18.1	21.1
Jan-Mar	20.9	18.7	20.2
Jan-Feb	21.2	16.9	22.8
Jan-Dec 2012	20.6	14.7	16.2
Jan-Nov	20.7	14.5	16.7
Jan-Oct	20.7	14.2	15.4
Jan-Sep	20.5	13.6	15.4
Jan-Aug	20.2	12.9	15.6
Jan-Jul	20.4	12.6	15.4
Jan-Jun	20.4	13.8	16.6
Jan-May	20.1	10.0	18.5
Jan-Apr	20.2	9.5	18.7
Jan-Mar	20.9	9.0	23.5
Jan-Feb	21.5	8.8	27.8
Jan-Dec 2011	23.8	11.1	27.9
Jan-Nov	24.5	11.7	29.9
Jan-Oct	24.9	12.4	31.1
Jan-Sep	24.9	12.7	32.0
Jan-Aug	25.0	12.1	33.2
Jan-Jul	25.4	13.6	33.6
Jan-Jun	25.6	14.6	32.9
Jan-May	25.8	14.9	34.6
Jan-Apr	25.4	16.6	34.3
Jan-Mar	25.0	17.0	34.1
Jan-Feb	24.9	15.6	35.2

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart VC-2 provides percentage changes of cumulative fixed asset investment in China relative to a year earlier from 2013 to 2014. Growth fell from 19.6 percent in Jan-Dec 2013 to 13.9 percent in Jan-Feb 2015.

Chart VC-2, China, Investment in Fixed Assets, ∆% Cumulative over Year Earlier

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

China has used restriction of reserves of banks to moderate real estate investment. These policies have been reversed because of lower inflation and weakening economic growth. Chart VC-3 shows decline of fluctuating cumulative growth rates of investment in real estate development relative to a year earlier from 19.8 percent in Jan-Dec 2013 to 10.4 percent in Jan-Feb 2015.

Chart VC-3, China, Investment in Real Estate Development, ∆% Cumulative over Year Earlier

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Growth rates of China’s retail sales in 12 months and cumulative relative to a year earlier are in Table VC-5. There is decline of growth rates to cumulative 10.7 percent in Jan-Feb 2015 relative to a year earlier from 19.9 percent in Jan 2011 and 17.1 percent in Dec 2011.

Table VC-5, China, Retail Sales 12-Month ∆% and Cumulative ∆% Relative to Year Earlier

	12-Month ∆%	Cumulative ∆%/ Cumulative Year Earlier
2015
Jan-Feb	NA	10.7
2014
Jan-Dec	11.9	12.0
Jan-Nov	11.7	12.0
Jan-Oct	11.5	12.0
Jan-Sep	11.6	12.0
Jan-Aug	11.9	12.1
Jan-Jul	12.2	12.1
Jan-Jun	12.4	12.1
Jan-May	12.5	12.1
Jan-Apr	11.9	12.0
Jan-Mar	12.2	12.0
Jan-Feb	11.8	NA
2013
Dec	13.6	13.1
Nov	13.7	13.0
Oct	13.3	13.0
Sep	13.3	12.9
Aug	13.4	12.8
Jul	13.2	12.8
Jun	13.3	12.7
May	12.9	12.6
Apr	12.8	12.5
Mar	12.6	12.4
Feb	12.3	12.3
2012
Dec	15.2	14.3
Nov	14.9	14.2
Oct	14.5	14.1
Sep	14.2	14.1
Aug	13.2	14.1
Jul	13.1	14.2
Jun	13.7	14.4
May	13.8	14.5
Apr	14.1	14.7
Mar	15.2	14.8
Feb	14.7	14.7
2011
Dec	18.1	17.1
Nov	17.3	17.0
Oct	17.2	17.0
Sep	17.7	17.0
Aug	17.0	16.9
Jul	17.2	16.8
Jun	17.7	16.8
May	16.9	16.6
Apr	17.1	16.5
Mar	17.4	17.4
Feb	11.6	15.8
Jan	19.9	19.9

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart VC-4 of the National Bureau of Statistics of China provides 12-month rates of growth of retail sales from 2013 to 2014. There is again a drop into 2013 with the lowest percentages in Chart VC-4 followed by moderate increases. The growth rate of retail sales fell to 10.7 percent in Jan-Feb 2015 relative to a year earlier.

Chart VC-4, China, Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods 12-Month ∆%

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Table VC-6 provides monthly percentage changes of retail sales in China. Although the rate of 0.19 percent in Jan 2012 is the lowest in Table VC-6, the rate of 1.32 percent in Sep 2012 is relatively high and 1.23 percent in Dec 2012 is closer to rates in 2011. Sales are lower in Jan-Feb 2013 because of the Lunar New Year celebrations, rebounding in Mar-Dec 2013. There is weakness in Jan-Feb 2014 also partly under influence of the celebration of the Lunar New Year followed with 0.92 percent in Mar 2014. Retail sales increased 0.93 percent in Feb 2015.

Table VC-6, China, Retail Sales, Month ∆%

2011	Month ∆%
Feb	1.35
Mar	1.26
Apr	1.30
May	1.39
Jun	1.49
Jul	1.57
Aug	1.50
Sep	1.33
Oct	1.36
Nov	1.26
Dec	1.41
2012
Jan	0.19
Feb	0.99
Mar	1.21
Apr	0.93
May	1.11
Jun	1.12
Jul	1.03
Aug	1.11
Sep	1.32
Oct	1.18
Nov	1.21
Dec	1.23
Jan 2013	0.14
Feb	0.87
Mar	1.50
Apr	0.99
May	0.95
Jun	1.09
Jul	1.08
Aug	0.92
Sep	1.02
Oct	0.98
Nov	1.00
Dec	0.94
2014
Jan	0.85
Feb	0.91
Mar	0.92
Apr	0.81
May	1.02
Jun	0.93
Jul	0.84
Aug	0.83
Sep	0.86
Oct	1.00
Nov	0.92
Dec	1.00
2015
Jan	0.90
Feb	0.93

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Table VC-1 provides China’s exports, imports, trade balance and 12-month percentage changes from Dec 2010 to Feb 2015. The trade surplus of China was $60.62 billion in Feb 2015 with exports increasing 48.3 percent relative to a year earlier and imports decreasing 20.5 percent. China’s trade surplus was $60.0 billion in Jan 2015 with exports decreasing 3.3 percent in 12 months and imports declining 19.9 percent. The trade surplus of China was $49.61 billion in Dec 2014 with exports growing 9.7 percent in 12 months and imports falling 2.4 percent. The trade surplus of China was $54.5 billion in Nov 2014 with exports growing 4.7 percent in 12 months and imports falling 6.7 percent. The trade surplus of China in Oct 2014 was $45.4 billion with exports increasing 11.6 percent in 12 months and imports 4.6 percent. The trade surplus of China in Sep 2014 was $31.0 billion with exports growing 15.3 percent relative to a year earlier and imports increasing 7.0 percent. China’s trade surplus rose to $49.8 billion in Aug 2014 with 12-month growth of exports of 9.4 percent and decline of 2.4 percent of imports in 12 months. The trade surplus of China jumped to $47.3 billion in Jul 2014 with growth of exports by 14.5 percent and decrease of imports by 1.6 percent. China’s trade surplus decreased to $31.6 billion in Jun 2014 with growth of exports of 7.2 percent and of 5.5 percent of imports. The trade surplus of China increased to $35.92 billion in May 2014 with growth of exports of 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier and decline of imports by 1.6 percent. The trade surplus of China increased to $18.45 billion in Apr 2014 with growth of exports of 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier and of imports of 0.8 percent. China had a trade surplus of $7.71 billion in Mar 2014 with exports declining 6.6 percent in 12 months and imports decreasing 11.3 percent. China had a rare trade deficit of $22.99 billion in Feb 2014 with exports decreasing 18.1 percent in 12 months while imports increased 10.1 percent. Exports increased 10.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2014 and imports 10.0 percent for trade surplus of $31.87 billion. Exports increased 4.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013 while imports increased 8.3 percent for trade surplus of $25.64 billion. Exports surged 12.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2013 while imports increased 5.3 percent for trade surplus of $33.8 billion. Exports rebounded with growth of 5.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2013 while imports increased 7.6 percent for trade surplus of $31.11 billion. Exports fell 0.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2013 while imports increased 7.4 for reduction of the trade surplus to $15.2 billion. Markets reacted positively to China’s trade data in Aug 2013 with exports growing 7.2 percent relative to a year earlier and imports 7.0 percent for increasing trade surplus of $28.52. Exports increased 5.1 in Jul 2013 and imports 10.9 percent for trade surplus of $17.82 billion. Exports fell 3.1 percent in Jun 2013 and imports declined 0.7 percent. The trade surplus reached $27.12 billion. Exports increased 1.0 percent in May 2013 relative to a year earlier while imports fell 0.3 percent with trade surplus of $20.43 billion. Exports increased 14.7 percent in Apr 2013 relative to a year earlier and imports 16.8 percent for trade surplus of $18.16 billion. Exports increased 10.0 percent in Mar 2013 relative to a year earlier and imports increased 14.1 percent for trade deficit of $0.88 billion. Exports increased 21.8 percent in Feb 2013 relative to a year earlier and imports fell 15.2 percent for trade surplus of $15.25 billion. China’s trade growth was stronger in Jan 2013 with growth of exports of 25.0 percent in 12 months and of imports of 28.8 percent for trade surplus of $29.15 billion. China’s trade growth strengthened in Dec 2012 with growth in 12 months of exports of 14.1 percent and of imports of 6.0 percent. China’s trade growth weakened again in Nov 2012 with growth of exports of 2.9 percent and no change in imports. China’s trade growth rebounded with growth of exports in 12 months of 11.6 percent in Oct 2012 and 9.9 percent in Sep 2012 after 2.7 percent in Aug 2012 and 1.0 percent in Jul 2012 while imports grew 2.4 percent in both Sep and Oct 2012, stagnating in Nov 2012. As a result, the monthly trade surplus increased from $25.2 billion in Jul 2012 to $31.9 billion in Oct 2012, declining to $19.6 billion in Nov 2012 but increasing to $31.62 billion in Dec 2012. China’s trade growth rebounded in Oct 2012 with growth of exports of 11.6 percent in 12 months and 2.4 percent for imports and trade surplus of $31.9 billion. The number that caught attention in financial markets was growth of 1.0 percent in exports in the 12 months ending in Jul 2012. Imports were also weak, growing 4.7 percent in 12 months ending in Jul 2012. Exports increased 11.3 percent in Jun 2012 relative to a year earlier while imports grew 6.3 percent. The rate of growth of exports fell to 4.9 percent in Apr 2012 relative to a year earlier and imports increased 0.3 percent but export growth was 15.3 percent in May and imports increased 12.7 percent. China reversed the large trade deficit of USD 31.48 billion in Feb 2012 with a surplus of $5.35 billion in Mar 2012, $18.42 billion in Apr 2012, $18.7 billion in May 2012, $31.7 billion in Jun 2012, $25.2 billion in Jul 2012, $26.7 billion in Aug 2012, $27.7 billion in Sep 2012, $31.9 billion in Oct 2012 and $19.6 billion in Nov 2012. Exports fell 0.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2012 while imports fell 15.3 percent for a still sizeable trade surplus of $27.3 billion. In Feb 2012, exports increased 18.4 percent while imports jumped 39.6 percent for a sizeable deficit of $31.48 billion. There are distortions from the Lunar New Year holidays.

Table VC-7, China, Exports, Imports and Trade Balance USD Billion and ∆%

	Exports USD Billion	∆% Relative Year Earlier	Imports USD Billion	∆% Relative Year Earlier	Balance USD Billion
Feb 2015	169.19	48.3	108.57	-20.5	60.62
Jan	200.29	-3.3	140.38	-19.9	60.03
Dec 2014	227.51	9.7	177.9	-2.4	49.61
Nov	211.66	4.7	157.19	-6.7	54.47
Oct	206.87	11.6	161.46	4.6	45.41
Sep	213.69	15.3	182.74	7.0	30.94
Aug	208.46	9.4	158.63	-2.4	49.84
Jul	212.9	14.5	165.6	-1.6	47.30
Jun	186.8	7.2	155.2	5.5	31.65
May	195.47	7.0	159.55	-1.6	35.92
Apr	188.54	0.9	170.09	0.8	18.45
Mar	170.11	-6.6	162.40	-11.3	7.71
Feb	114.09	-18.1	137.08	10.1	-22.99
Jan	207.13	10.6	175.26	10.0	31.87
Dec 2013	207.74	4.3	182.10	8.3	25.64
Nov	202.20	12.7	168.40	5.3	33.8
Oct	185.41	5.6	154.30	7.6	31.11
Sep	185.64	-0.3	170.44	7.4	15.21
Aug	190.61	7.2	162.09	7.0	28.52
Jul	185.99	5.1	168.17	10.9	17.82
Jun	174.32	-3.1	147.19	-0.7	27.12
May	182.77	1.0	162.34	-0.3	20.43
Apr	187.06	14.7	168.90	16.8	18.16
Mar	182.19	10.0	183.07	14.1	-0.88
Feb	139.37	21.8	124.12	-15.2	15.25
Jan	187.37	25.0	158.22	28.8	29.15
Dec 2012	199.23	14.1	167.61	6.0	31.62
Nov	179.38	2.9	159.75	0.0	19.63
Oct	175.57	11.6	143.58	2.4	31.99
Sep	186.35	9.9	158.68	2.4	27.67
Aug	177.97	2.7	151.31	-2.6	26.66
Jul	176.94	1.0	151.79	4.7	25.15
Jun	180.20	11.3	148.48	6.3	31.72
May	181.14	15.3	162.44	12.7	18.70
Apr	163.25	4.9	144.83	0.3	18.42
Mar	165.66	8.9	160.31	5.3	5.35
Feb	114.47	18.4	145.95	39.6	-31.48
Jan	149.94	-0.5	122.66	-15.3	27.28
Dec 2011	174.72	13.4	158.20	11.8	16.52
Nov	174.46	13.8	159.94	22.1	14.53
Oct	157.49	15.9	140.46	28.7	17.03
Sep	169.67	17.1	155.16	20.9	14.51
Aug	173.32	24.5	155.56	30.2	17.76
Jul	175.13	20.4	143.64	22.9	31.48
Jun	161.98	17.9	139.71	19.3	22.27
May	157.16	19.4	144.11	28.4	13.05
Apr	155.69	29.9	144.26	21.8	11.42
Mar	152.20	35.8	152.06	27.3	0.14
Feb	96.74	2.4	104.04	19.4	-7.31
Jan	150.73	37.7	144.27	51.0	6.46
Dec 2010	154.15	17.9	141.07	25.6	13.08

Source: Ministry of Commerce, People’s Republic of China

http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/article/statistic/BriefStatistics/

Table VC-8 provides cumulative exports, imports and the trade balance of China together with percentage growth of exports and imports relative to a year earlier. Exports increased 15.0 percent in cumulative Jan-Feb 2015 relative to a year earlier and imports decreased 20.3 percent for cumulative surplus of $120.5 billion. Exports decreased 3.3 percent in Jan 2015 relative to a year earlier and imports fell 19.9 percent for surplus of $60.0 billion. Exports increased 6.1 percent in Jan-Dec 2014 relative to a year earlier and imports increased 0.4 percent for cumulative surplus of $382.46 billion. Exports increased 5.7 percent cumulatively in Jan-Nov 2014 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 0.8 percent for cumulative trade surplus of $332.5 billion. Exports increased 5.8 percent cumulatively in Jan-Oct 2014 relative to a year while earlier while imports increased 1.6 percent for cumulative trade surplus of $277.1 billion. Exports increased 5.1 percent cumulatively in Jan-Sep 2014 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 1.3 percent for cumulative trade surplus of $231.6 billion. Exports grew 3.8 percent cumulatively in Jan-Aug 2014 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 1.6 percent for cumulative surplus of $200 billion. Exports increased 2.9 percent in the cumulative Jan-July 2014 relative to a year earlier and imports 1.1 percent for cumulative surplus of $150.6 billion. Exports increased 0.9 percent in Jan-Jun 2014 relative to a year earlier and imports increased 1.5 percent for cumulative surplus of $102.7 billion. Exports fell 0.4 percent in Jan-May 2014 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 0.8 percent for cumulative surplus of $71.11 billion. Exports fell 2.3 percent in Jan-Apr 2014 relative to the same period a year earlier and imports increased 1.5 percent for cumulative trade surplus of $35.19 billion.

Exports fell 3.4 percent in Jan-Mar 2014 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 1.6 percent for cumulative surplus of $16.74 billion. Exports fell 1.6 percent and imports increased 10.0 percent for cumulative surplus of $8.88 billion in Jan-Feb 2014. Exports increased 10.6 percent in Jan 2014 and imports 10.0 percent for cumulative surplus of $31.87 billion. Exports increased 7.9 percent in Jan-Dec 2013 relative to the same period a year earlier while imports increased 7.3 percent for cumulative surplus of $259.75 billion. Exports grew 8.3 percent in Jan-Nov 2013 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 7.1 percent for cumulative surplus of $234.15 billion. Exports grew 7.8 percent in Jan-Oct 2013 relative to a year earlier while imports grew 7.3 percent for cumulative trade surplus of $200.46 billion. Exports increased 8.0 percent in Jan-Sep 2013 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 7.3 percent for cumulative surplus of $169.36 billion. Exports increased 9.2 percent in in Jan-Aug 2013 relative to a year earlier and imports 7.3 percent for trade surplus of $154.21 billion. Exports grew 9.5 percent in Jul 2013 relative to a year earlier and imports 7.3 percent with cumulative surplus of $125.71 billion. Exports increased 10.4 percent cumulatively in Jun 2013 and imports 6.7 for cumulative surplus of $107.95 billion. Exports increased 13.5 percent in Jan-May 2013 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 8.2 percent for cumulative surplus of $80.87 billion. Exports increased 17.4 percent in Jan-Apr 2012 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 10.6 percent for cumulative surplus of $60.98 billion. Exports increased 18.4 percent in Jan-Mar 2013 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 8.4 percent for cumulative surplus of $43.07 billion. Cumulative exports in Jan-Feb 2013 grew 23.6 percent relative to a year earlier and imports 5.0 percent for trade surplus of $44.15 billion. There is strong beginning of 2013 with trade surplus of $29.15 in Jan 2013 and growth of exports of 25.0 percent and imports of 28.8 percent. The trade balance of $231.1 billion in 2012 is stronger than the trade balance of $155.14 billion in 2011. The trade balance in 2011 of $155.14 billion is lower than those from 2008 to 2010. China’s trade balance reached $231.1 billion in Jan-Dec 2012 with cumulative growth of exports of 7.9 percent and 4.3 percent of imports, which is much lower than 20.3 percent for exports and 24.9 percent for imports in 2011 and 31.3 percent for exports and 38.7 percent for imports in 2010. There is a rare cumulative deficit of $4.2 billion in Feb 2012 reversed to a small surplus in Mar 2012 and a higher surplus of $19.3 billion in Apr 2012, increasing to $37.9 billion in May, $68.9 billion in Jun 2012, $94.1 billion in Jul 2012, $120.6 billion in Aug 2012, $148.3 billion in Sep 2012, $180.24 billion in Oct 2012, $199.54 billion in Nov 2012 and $231.1 billion in Dec 2012. More observations are required to detect trends of Chinese trade.

Table VC-8, China, Year to Date Exports, Imports and Trade Balance USD Billion and ∆%

	Exports USD Billion	∆% Relative Year Earlier	Imports USD Billion	∆% Relative Year Earlier	Balance USD Billion
Feb 2015	369.48	15.0	248.95	-20.3	120.53
Jan	200.29	-3.3	140.38	-19.9	60.0
Dec 2014	2342.75	6.1	1960.29	0.4	382.46
Nov	2115.36	5.7	1782.89	0.8	332.48
Oct	1903.84	5.8	1626.73	1.6	277.1
Sep	1697.09	5.1	1465.51	1.3	231.58
Aug	1483.5	3.8	1282.9	0.6	200.5
Jul	1275.0	2.9	1125.0	1.1	150.6
Jun	1062.1	0.9	959.4	1.5	102.7
May	875.32	-0.4	804.21	0.8	71.11
Apr	679.85	-2.3	644.66	1.5	35.19
Mar	491.31	-3.4	474.57	1.6	16.74
Feb	321.23	-1.6	312.35	10.0	8.88
Jan	207.13	10.6	175.26	10.0	31.87
Dec 2013	2210.04	7.9	1950.29	7.3	259.75
Nov	2002.32	8.3	1768.17	7.1	234.15
Oct	1800.21	7.8	1599.75	7.3	200.46
Sep	1614.86	8.0	1445.50	7.3	169.36
Aug	1429.26	9.2	1275.05	7.3	154.21
Jul	1238.73	9.5	1113.02	7.3	125.71
Jun	1052.82	10.4	944.87	6.7	107.95
May	878.56	13.5	797.69	8.2	80.87
Apr	695.87	17.4	634.88	10.6	60.98
Mar	508.87	18.4	465.80	8.4	43.07
Feb	326.73	23.6	282.58	5.0	44.15
Jan	187.37	25.0	158.22	28.8	29.15
Dec 2012	2048.93	7.9	1817.83	4.3	231.11
Nov	1849.91	7.3	1650.37	4.1	199.54
Oct	1670.90	7.8	1490.67	4.6	180.24
Sep	1495.39	7.4	1347.08	4.8	148.31
Aug	1309.11	7.1	1188.51	5.1	120.61
Jul	1131.24	7.8	1037.14	6.4	94.10
Jun	954.38	9.2	885.46	6.7	68.91
May	774.40	8.7	736.49	6.7	37.92
Apr	593.24	6.9	573.94	5.1	19.3
Mar	430.02	7.6	429.36	6.6	0.66
Feb	264.40	6.9	268.64	7.7	-4.24
Jan	149.94	-0.5	122.66	-15.3	27.28
Dec 2011	1,898.60	20.3	1,743.46	24.9	155.14
Nov	1,724.01	21.1	1585.61	26.4	138.40
Oct	1,549.71	22.0	1,425.68	26.9	124.03
Sep	1,392.27	22.7	1,285.17	26.7	107.10
Aug	1,222.63	23.6	1,129.90	27.5	92.73
Jul	1,049.38	23.4	973.17	26.9	76.21
Jun	874.3	24.0	829.37	27.6	44.93
May	712.37	25.5	689.41	29.4	22.96
Apr	555.30	27.4	545.02	29.6	10.28
Mar	399.64	26.5	400.66	32.6	-1.02
Feb	247.47	21.3	248.36	36.0	-0.89
Jan	150.7	37.7	144.27	51.0	6.46
Dec 2010	1577.93	31.3	1394.83	38.7	183.10

Source: Ministry of Commerce, People’s Republic of China

http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/article/statistic/BriefStatistics/

VD Euro Area. Table VD-EUR provides yearly growth rates of the combined GDP of the members of the European Monetary Union (EMU) or euro area since 1996. Growth was very strong at 3.3 percent in 2006 and 3.0 percent in 2007. The global recession had strong impact with growth of only 0.4 percent in 2008 and decline of 4.4 percent in 2009. Recovery was at lower growth rates of 2.0 percent in 2010 and 1.6 percent in 2011. EUROSTAT estimates growth of GDP of the euro area of minus 0.7 percent in 2012 and minus 0.4 percent in 2013 but 1.1 percent in 2014 and 1.7 percent in 2015.

Table VD-EUR, Euro Area, Yearly Percentage Change of Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, Unemployment and GDP ∆%

Year	HICP ∆%	Unemployment %	GDP ∆%
1999	1.2	9.6	2.9
2000	2.2	8.8	3.8
2001	2.4	8.2	2.0
2002	2.3	8.5	0.9
2003	2.1	9.0	0.7
2004	2.2	9.2	2.2
2005	2.2	9.1	1.7
2006	2.2	8.4	3.3
2007	2.2	7.5	3.0
2008	3.3	7.6	0.4
2009	0.3	9.6	-4.5
2010	1.6	10.1	1.9
2011	2.7	10.1	1.6
2012	2.5	11.3	-0.7
2013*	1.3	12.0	-0.4
2014*			1.1
2015*			1.7

*EUROSTAT forecast Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

The GDP of the euro area in 2012 in current US dollars in the dataset of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is $12,199.1 billion or 16.9 percent of world GDP of $72,216.4 billion (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/02/weodata/index.aspx). The sum of the GDP of France $2613.9 billion with the GDP of Germany of $3429.5 billion, Italy of $2014.1 billion and Spain $1323.5 billion is $9381.0 billion or 76.9 percent of total euro area GDP and 13.0 percent of World GDP. The four largest economies account for slightly more than three quarters of economic activity of the euro area. Table VD-EUR1 is constructed with the dataset of EUROSTAT, providing growth rates of the euro area as a whole and of the largest four economies of Germany, France, Italy and Spain annually from 1996 to 2011 with the estimate of 2012 and forecasts for 2013, 2014 and 2015 by EUROSTAT. The impact of the global recession on the overall euro area economy and on the four largest economies was quite strong. There was sharp contraction in 2009 and growth rates have not rebounded to earlier growth with exception of Germany in 2010 and 2011.

Table VD-EUR1, Euro Area, Real GDP Growth Rate, ∆%

	Euro Area	Germany	France	Italy	Spain
2015*	1.7	1.9	1.7	1.2	1.7
2014*	1.1	1.7	0.9	0.7	0.5
2013*	-0.4	0.4	0.2	-1.9	-1.2
2012	-0.7	0.7	0.0	-2.4	-1.6
2011	1.6	3.3	2.0	0.4	0.1
2010	1.9	4.0	1.7	1.7	-0.2
2009	-4.5	-5.1	-3.1	-5.5	-3.8
2008	0.4	1.1	-0.1	-1.2	0.9
2007	3.0	3.3	2.3	1.7	3.5
2006	3.3	3.7	2.5	2.2	4.1
2005	1.7	0.7	1.8	0.9	3.6
2004	2.2	1.2	2.5	1.7	3.3
2003	0.7	-0.4	0.9	0.0	3.1
2002	0.9	0.0	0.9	0.5	2.7
2001	2.0	1.5	1.8	1.9	3.7
2000	3.8	3.1	3.7	3.7	5.0
1999	2.9	1.9	3.3	1.5	4.7
1998	2.8	1.9	3.4	1.4	4.5
1997	2.6	1.7	2.2	1.9	3.9
1996	1.5	0.8	1.1	1.1	2.5

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

The Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index of the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI^®, combining activity in manufacturing and services, increased from 52.6 in Jan to 53.5 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/be007dfe9a364164b10392d0572ffcf2). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds that the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI index suggests GDP growth at around 0.3 percent in IQ2015 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/be007dfe9a364164b10392d0572ffcf2). The Markit Eurozone PMI^® Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing activity with close association with GDP increased from 52.6 in Jan to 53.3 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e1972f0591de4394aa4e977fcad4d0a1). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds slowing growth of GDP at around 0.3 percent in IQ2015 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e1972f0591de4394aa4e977fcad4d0a1). The Markit Eurozone Services Business Activity Index increased from 52.7 in Jan to 53.7 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e1972f0591de4394aa4e977fcad4d0a1). The Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI^® did not change from 51.0 in Jan to 51.0 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/88acf5800873414f90a017221726b9be). New export orders increased. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds modest improvement of industrial growth in the euro area (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/88acf5800873414f90a017221726b9be). Table EUR provides the data table for the euro area.

Table EUR, Euro Area Economic Indicators

GDP	IVQ2014 ∆% 0.3; IVQ2014/IVQ2013 ∆% 0.9 Blog 3/15/15
Unemployment	Jan 2015: 11.4 % unemployment rate; Jan 2015: 18.059 million unemployed Blog 3/8/15
HICP	Jan month ∆%: -1.6 12 months Jan ∆%: -0.6 Blog 3/1/15
Producer Prices	Euro Zone industrial producer prices Jan ∆%: -0.9 Jan 12-month ∆%: -3.4 Blog 3/8/15
Industrial Production	Dec month ∆%: 0.0; Dec 12 months ∆%: -0.2 Blog 2/15/15
Retail Sales	Jan month ∆%: 1.1 Jan 12 months ∆%: 3.7 Blog 3/15/15
Confidence and Economic Sentiment Indicator	Sentiment 102.1 Feb 2015 Consumer minus 6.7 Feb 2015 Blog 3/1/15
Trade	Jan-Dec 2014/Jan-Dec 2013 Exports ∆%: 2.4 Imports ∆%: 0.1 Dec 2014 12-month Exports ∆% 8.0 Imports ∆% 1.0 Blog 2/22/15

Links to blog comments in Table EUR:

3/8/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-competitive-devaluation-rules.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

Table VD-1 provides percentage changes of euro area real GDP in a quarter relative to the prior quarter. Real GDP fell 0.3 percent in IVQ2011, fell 0.1 in IQ2012 and fell in the final three quarters of 2012: 0.3 percent in IIQ2012, 0.1 percent in IIIQ2012 and 0.4 percent in IVQ2012. GDP fell 0.4 percent in IQ2013 and increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2013. Growth slowed at 0.2 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2013. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2014. GDP in the euro area increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2014. The global recession manifested in the euro area in five consecutive quarterly declines from IIQ2008 to IIQ2009. The strongest impact was contraction of 2.9 percent in IQ2009. Recovery began in IIIQ2009 with cumulative growth of 4.1 percent to IQ2011 or at the annual equivalent rate of 2.3 percent. Growth was much more vigorous from IVQ2003 to IQ2008. Using calendar and seasonally adjusted data (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of the euro area (18 countries) fell 5.8 percent from the high pre-recession date on IQ2008 to the trough in IIQ2009 while the GDP of the euro area (19 countries) fell 5.8 percent. The GDP of the euro area (18 countries) increased 4.1 percent from IIIQ2009 to IVQ2014 at the annual equivalent rate of 0.7 percent while that of the euro area (19 countries) increased 4.1 percent at the annual equivalent rate of 0.7 percent. The GDP of the euro area (18) countries in IVQ2014 is lower by 1.9 percent relative to the pre-recession peak in IQ2008 and that of the euro area (19 countries) is lower by 1.9 percent relative to the pre-recession peak in IQ2008.

Table VD-1, Euro Area, Real GDP, Percentage Change from Prior Quarter, Calendar and Seasonally and Working Day Adjusted ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IVQ
2014	0.3	0.1	0.2	0.3
2013	-0.4	0.3	0.2	0.3
2012	-0.1	-0.3	-0.1	-0.4
2011	0.9	0.0	0.0	-0.3
2010	0.4	1.0	0.4	0.5
2009	-2.9	-0.2	0.3	0.5
2008	0.7	-0.4	-0.6	-1.8
2007	0.8	0.6	0.5	0.5
2006	0.9	1.1	0.6	1.1
2005	0.2	0.7	0.7	0.6
2004	0.5	0.6	0.3	0.3
2003	-0.2	0.1	0.5	0.8
2002	0.2	0.5	0.4	0.1
2001	0.9	0.1	0.1	0.1
2000	1.2	0.9	0.5	0.8
1999	0.9	0.7	1.1	1.2

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

Table VD-2 provides percentage change in real GDP in the euro area in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Growth rates were quite strong from 2004 to 2007. There were five consecutive quarters of sharp declines in GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier from IVQ2008 to IVQ2009 with sharp contractions of 5.6 percent in IQ2009, 5.4 percent in IIQ2009 and 4.6 percent in IIIQ2009. Growth rates decline in magnitude with 1.4 percent in IIIQ2011, 0.6 percent in IVQ211 and -0.4 percent in IQ2012 followed by contractions of 0.8 percent in IIQ2012, 0.8 percent in IIIQ2012 and 0.9 percent in IVQ2012. GDP contracted 1.2 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and contracted 0.6 percent in IIQ2013 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP contracted 0.3 percent in IIIQ2013 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 1.1 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.8 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.9 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier.

Table VD-2, Euro Area, Real GDP Percentage Change in a Quarter Relative to Same Quarter a

Year Earlier, Seasonally and Working Day Adjusted ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IV
2014	1.1	0.8	0.8	0.9
2013	-1.2	-0.6	-0.3	0.4
2012	-0.4	-0.8	-0.8	-0.9
2011	2.8	1.8	1.4	0.6
2010	1.0	2.2	2.3	2.3
2009	-5.6	-5.4	-4.6	-2.3
2008	2.3	1.2	0.2	-2.1
2007	3.6	3.1	3.0	2.4
2006	2.9	3.4	3.3	3.8
2005	1.4	1.5	1.9	2.2
2004	1.9	2.3	2.2	1.7
2003	0.7	0.3	0.5	1.1
2002	0.5	0.9	1.2	1.1
2001	3.1	2.2	1.8	1.1
2000	4.2	4.5	3.9	3.4
1999	2.2	2.4	2.9	3.9

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

Table VD-3 provides growth of euro area real GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier not seasonally adjusted. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2013 NSA relative to a year earlier and increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.1 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 0.6 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 0.9 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.5 percent in IIQ2013 relative to a year earlier without seasonal adjustment and declined 1.8 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier without seasonal adjustment. Growth rates in 2006 and 2007 were quite strong followed by sharp declines of 5.6 percent in IQ2009, 5.9 percent in IIQ2009 and 4.4 percent in IQ2009.

Table VD-3, Euro Area, Real GDP Percentage Change in a Quarter Relative to Same Quarter a Year Earlier, Not Seasonally Adjusted ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IV
2014	1.1	0.6	0.8	0.9
2013	-1.8	-0.5	0.1	0.3
2012	-0.1	-1.1	-1.0	-1.0
2011	3.0	1.9	1.4	0.2
2010	1.1	2.4	2.3	2.2
2009	-5.6	-5.9	-4.4	-2.1
2008	1.9	1.6	0.7	-2.1
2007	3.5	3.1	3.1	2.5
2006	3.6	2.7	3.1	3.6
2005	1.0	2.1	1.9	1.7
2004	2.2	2.6	2.2	2.0
2003	0.9	0.1	0.4	1.2
2002	0.1	1.1	1.5	1.0
2001	3.0	2.3	1.7	1.4
2000	4.9	4.3	3.4	2.8
1999	2.2	2.6	2.8	3.9

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

Table VD-4 provides GDP growth in IVQ2014 and relative to the same quarter a year earlier with SAWDA (seasonal and working day adjustment) and NSA (not seasonally adjusted) for the euro zone, European Union, Japan and the US. The GDP of the euro zone increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier SWDA and 0.9 percent NSA for IVQ2014. The GDP of the European Union increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2014, increased 1.3 percent SWDA in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier NSA in IVQ2014. Growth in IVQ2014 was weak worldwide with somewhat stronger performance by the US but still insufficient to reduce unemployment and underemployment (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-competitive-devaluation-rules.html) and motivate hiring (Section I and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html).

Table VD-4, Euro Zone, European Union, Japan and USA, Real GDP Growth

	∆% IVQ2014/ IIIQ2014 SAWDA	∆% IVQ2014/ IVQ2013 SWDA	∆% IVQ2014/ IVQ2013 NSA
Euro Zone	0.3	0.9	0.9
European Union	0.4	1.3	1.2
Germany	0.7	1.5	1.6
France	0.1	0.2	0.4
Netherlands	0.5	1.0	1.0
Finland	-0.2	-0.2	-0.1
Belgium	0.2	1.0	1.0
Portugal	0.5	0.7	0.4
Ireland	NA	NA	NA
Italy	0.0	-0.5	-0.6
Greece	-0.4	1.3	1.2
Spain	0.7	2.0	2.1
United Kingdom	0.5	2.7	2.0
Japan	NA	NA	NA
USA	0.5	2.7	NA

*SAWDA: Seasonally and Working Day Adjusted except UK, Japan and USA

***NSA

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

Retail sales in the euro zone increased 1.1 percent in Jan 2015 and increased 3.7 percent in 12 months, as shown in Table VD-5. The 12-month rates of growth became negative between Mar 2011 and Dec 2013 with exception of 0.6 percent in Apr 2011, 0.0 percent in Mar 2012 and 1.5 percent in Nov 2013. The lower part of Table VD-3 provides annual percentage changes of inflation-adjusted retail sales in the euro zone since 2001. Retail sales fell 0.6 percent in 2010 after falling 0.4 percent in 2009 and 1.7 percent in 2008 and fell again by 1.9 percent in 2011 and 2.7 percent in 2012. Retail sales decreased 0.1 percent in 2013 and increased 3.1 percent in 2014.

Table VD-5, Euro Zone, Volume of Retail Sales, Deflated ∆%

	Month ∆%	12-Month CA ∆%
Jan 2015	1.1	3.7
Dec 2014	0.4	3.1
Nov	0.6	1.5
Oct	0.6	1.5
Sep	-0.9	0.4
Aug	0.7	1.5
Jul	-0.3	0.5
Jun	0.4	2.0
May	0.2	0.5
Apr	0.0	1.6
Mar	0.1	0.9
Feb	0.3	1.1
Jan	1.0	0.7
Dec 2013	-1.4	-0.1
Nov	1.0	1.5
Oct	-0.4	-0.5
Sep	-0.2	-0.2
Aug	-0.2	-0.3
Jul	1.0	-0.9
Jun	-1.0	-1.7
May	1.1	-0.2
Apr	-0.2	-1.3
Mar	-0.1	-2.4
Feb	-0.1	-2.1
Jan	0.5	-2.2
Dec 2012	-0.3	-2.7
Nov	-0.3	-1.9
Oct	-0.2	-3.1
Sep	-1.0	-1.9
Aug	-0.3	-0.7
Jul	0.1	-1.4
Jun	0.4	-0.9
May	0.4	-0.7
Apr	-1.5	-3.5
Mar	0.3	0.0
Feb	0.2	-2.2
Jan	-0.3	-0.9
Dec 2011	0.2	-1.9
Nov	-0.8	-1.6
Oct	0.2	-0.8
Sep	0.0	-1.3
Aug	-0.5	-0.3
Jul	0.3	-0.6
Jun	0.9	-1.0
May	-2.0	-1.8
Apr	1.3	0.6
Mar	-1.5	-1.6
Feb	0.9	1.2
Jan	-0.4	0.6
Dec ∆%
2014		3.1
2013		-0.1
2012		-2.7
2011		-1.9
2010		-0.6
2009		-0.4
2008		-1.7
2007		-0.9
2006		2.3
2005		1.0
2004		2.3
2003		0.7
2002		-0.2
2001		1.9

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

Growth rates of retail sales of the euro zone by major segments are in Table VD-6. Total sales increased 1.1 percent in Jan 2015 and increased 3.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2015. Food sales increased 1.0 percent in Jan 2015 and increased 2.2 percent in 12 months and sales of nonfood products increased 1.2 percent in Jan and increased 5.0 percent in 12 months. Sales of automotive fuel stores increased 3.2 percent in Jan and increased 6.1 percent in 12 months.

Table VD-6, Euro Zone, Volume of Retail Sales by Products, ∆%

Jan 2015	Month ∆%	12-Month ∆%
Total	1.1	3.7
Food, Drinks, Tobacco	1.0	2.2
Nonfood Products ex Automotive Fuel	1.2	5.0
Automotive Fuel in Specialized Stores	3.2	6.1

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

Month and 12-month percentage rates of change of retail sales by member countries of the euro zone are shown in Table VD-7 for Jan 2015. Retail sales are mixed throughout the euro zone. The 12-month percentage changes are positive for several members in Table VD-3 such as 4.1 percent for France, 5.2 percent Ireland, 5.4 percent Germany and 2.5 percent for Portugal. The 12-month percentage change for the UK, which is not a member of the euro zone, was 4.4 percent. The European Union’s 12-month percentage change was 4.0 percent.

Table VD-7, Euro Zone, Volume of Retail Sales by Member Countries, ∆%

Jan 2015	Month ∆%	12-Month ∆%
Euro Zone	1.1	3.7
Germany	2.9	5.4
France	0.1	4.1
Netherlands	0.3*	1.8*
Finland	0.9	-1.2
Belgium	0.0	-0.3
Portugal	6.8	2.5
Ireland	-0.1	5.2
Italy	0.0*	1.1*
Greece	-1.3*	-1.1*
Spain	NA	NA
UK	-0.9	4.4
European Union	0.8	4.0

*Dec 2014

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

VE Germany. Table VE-DE provides yearly growth rates of the German economy from 1971 to 2014, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked. Germany’s GDP fell 5.6 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.1 percent in 2008. Recovery has been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.1 percent in 2010, 3.6 percent in 2011 and 0.4 percent in 2012. Growth decelerated to 0.1 percent in 2013, increasing to 1.6 percent in 2014.

The Federal Statistical Agency of Germany analyzes the fall and recovery of the German economy (http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Content/Statistics/VolkswirtschaftlicheGesamtrechnungen/Inlandsprodukt/Aktuell,templateId=renderPrint.psml):

“The German economy again grew strongly in 2011. The price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.0% compared with the previous year. Accordingly, the catching-up process of the German economy continued during the second year after the economic crisis. In the course of 2011, the price-adjusted GDP again exceeded its pre-crisis level. The economic recovery occurred mainly in the first half of 2011. In 2009, Germany experienced the most serious post-war recession, when GDP suffered a historic decline of 5.1%. The year 2010 was characterised by a rapid economic recovery (+3.7%).”

Table VE-DE, Germany, GDP ∆% on Prior Year

	Price Adjusted Chain-Linked	Price- and Calendar-Adjusted Chain Linked
Average ∆% 1991-2014	1.3
Average ∆% 1991-1999	1.5
Average ∆% 2000-2007	1.4
Average ∆% 2003-2007	2.2
Average ∆% 2007-2014	0.7
Average ∆% 2009-2014	1.9
2014	1.6	1.6
2013	0.1	0.2
2012	0.4	0.6
2011	3.6	3.7
2010	4.1	3.9
2009	-5.6	-5.6
2008	1.1	0.8
2007	3.3	3.4
2006	3.7	3.9
2005	0.7	0.9
2004	1.2	0.7
2003	-0.7	-0.7
2002	0.0	0.0
2001	1.7	1.8
2000	3.0	3.2
1999	2.0	1.9
1998	2.0	1.7
1997	1.8	1.9
1996	0.8	0.8
1995	1.7	1.8
1994	2.5	2.5
1993	-1.0	-1.0
1992	1.9	1.5
1991	5.1	5.2
1990	5.3	5.5
1989	3.9	4.0
1988	3.7	3.4
1987	1.4	1.3
1986	2.3	2.3
1985	2.3	2.3
1984	2.8	2.9
1983	1.6	1.5
1982	-0.4	-0.5
1981	0.5	0.6
1980	1.4	1.3
1979	4.2	4.3
1978	3.0	3.1
1977	3.3	3.5
1976	4.9	4.5
1975	-0.9	-0.9
1974	0.9	1.0
1973	4.8	5.0
1972	4.3	4.3
1971	3.1	3.0
1970	NA	NA

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/NationalAccounts.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/DomesticProduct/CurrentRevision.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Methods/NationalAccountRevision/Revision2014_BackgroundPaper.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/02/PE14_048_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/08/PE13_278_811.html https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/11/PE13_381_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/01/PE14_016_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/DE/PresseService/Presse/Pressekonferenzen/2014/BIP2013/Pressebroschuere_BIP2013.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/05/PE14_167_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/09/PE14_306_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/11/PE14_401_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_048_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_61_811.html

The Flash Germany Composite Output Index of the Markit Flash Germany PMI^®, combining manufacturing and services, increased from 53.5 in Jan to 54.3 in Feb. The index of manufacturing output reached 52.0 in Feb, decreasing from 52.3 in Jan, while the index of services increased to 55.5 in Feb from 54.0 in Jan. The overall Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI^® did not change from 50.9 in Jan to 50.9 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/54a10c0e6ce14dfbb978cdc2ae5b1d92). New orders in manufacturing expanded. Oliver Kolodseike, Economist at Markit, finds improving GDP growth (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/54a10c0e6ce14dfbb978cdc2ae5b1d92). The Markit Germany Composite Output Index of the Markit Germany Services PMI^®, combining manufacturing and services with close association with Germany’s GDP, increased from 53.5 in Jan to 53.8 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/2b9e2def63d54291b499323d045c1e8d). Oliver Kolodseike, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds improvement in 2015 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/2b9e2def63d54291b499323d045c1e8d). The Germany Services Business Activity Index increased from 54.0 in Jan to 54.7 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/2b9e2def63d54291b499323d045c1e8d). The Markit/BME Germany Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®), showing close association with Germany’s manufacturing conditions, increased from 50.9 in Jan to 51.1 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/00764b709eef44c1a5905c0f98eac492). New export orders increased. Oliver Kolodseike, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds improvement of manufacturing still at a low level (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/00764b709eef44c1a5905c0f98eac492).Table DE provides the country data table for Germany.

Table DE, Germany, Economic Indicators

GDP	IVQ2014 0.7 ∆%; IV/Q2014/IVQ2013 ∆% 1.6 2014/2013: 1.6% GDP ∆% 1970-2014 Blog 8/26/12 5/27/12 11/25/12 2/24/13 5/19/13 5/26/13 8/18/13 8/25/13 11/17/13 11/24/13 1/26/14 2/16/14 3/2/14 5/18/14 5/25/14 8/17/14 9/7/14 11/16/14 11/30/14 2/15/15 3/1/15
Consumer Price Index	Feb month NSA ∆%: 0.9 Feb 12-month NSA ∆%: 0.1 Blog 3/15/15
Producer Price Index	Jan month ∆%: -0.6 NSA, minus 0.5 CSA 12-month NSA ∆%: -2.2 Blog 2/22/15
Industrial Production	MFG Jan month CSA ∆%: 0.0 12-month NSA: -2.5 Blog 3/15/15
Machine Orders	MFG Jan month ∆%: -3.9 Jan 12-month ∆%: -3.0 Blog 3/15/15
Retail Sales	Jan Month ∆% 2.9 12-Month ∆% 5.3 Blog 3/8/15
Employment Report	Unemployment Rate SA Jan 4.7% Blog 3/1/15
Trade Balance	Exports Jan 12-month NSA ∆%: -0.6 Imports Jan 12 months NSA ∆%: -2.3 Exports Jan month CSA ∆%: minus 2.1; Imports Jan month CSA minus 0.3 Blog 3/15/15

Links to blog comments in Table DE:

3/8/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-competitive-devaluation-rules.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

9/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/competitive-monetary-policy-and.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

1/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/01/capital-flows-exchange-rates-and.html

11/24/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html

8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

There is significantly stronger performance of production in Germany with wide monthly fluctuations. The production industries index of Germany in Table VE-1A shows increase of 0.2 percent in Dec 2012 and decrease of 9.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2012. The index decreased 0.7 percent in Jan 2013 and 1.3 percent in 12 months and increased 0.8 percent in Feb 2013, declining 4.9 percent in 12 months. In Mar 2013, the production index of Germany increased 1.8 percent and fell 8.5 percent in 12 months. The production index jumped 0.9 percent in Apr 2013 and 7.5 percent in 12 months. In May 2013, the production index fell 1.1 percent and 4.4 percent in 12 months. The production index of Germany increased 1.9 percent in Jun 2013 and fell 0.4 percent in 12 months. In Jul 2013, the production industries index fell 1.2 percent and increased 1.9 percent in 12 months. The production industries index increased 2.1 percent in Aug 2013 and fell 2.8 percent in 12 months. In Sep 2013, the production index fell 0.9 percent and increased 4.2 percent in 12 months. In Oct 2013, the production index of Germany fell 0.7 percent and increased 1.3 percent in 12 months. The index of production industries increased 1.7 percent in Nov 2013 and 0.4 percent in 12 months. The index of production industries increased 0.1 percent in Dec 2013 and increased 5.9 percent in 12 months. The production industries index increased 0.3 percent in Jan 2014 and 3.3 percent in 12 months. In Feb 2014, the production industries index increased 0.4 percent and 5.8 percent in 12 months. The production industries index fell 0.5 percent in Mar 2014 and increased 4.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The production industries index of Germany decreased 0.2 percent in Apr 2014 and fell 1.6 percent in 12 months. The production index fell 1.2 percent in May 2014, increasing 4.0 percent in 12 months. The production index of Germany increased 0.4 percent in Jun 2014 and fell 2.2 percent in 12 months. In Jul 2014, the production industries index of Germany increased 1.3 percent and 3.0 percent in 12 months. The production index of Germany fell 2.6 percent in Aug 2014 and decreased 4.9 percent in 12 months. The production index of Germany increased 1.2 percent in Sep 2014 and 3.6 percent in 12 months. In Oct 2014, the production index of Germany increased 0.4 percent and 1.2 percent in 12 months. The production industries index of Germany increased 0.1 percent in Nov 2014 and decreased 1.4 percent in 12 months. The index of production industries of Germany increased 1.0 percent in Dec 2014 and 2.7 percent in 12 months. The index of production industries of Germany increased 0.6 percent in Jan 2015 and fell 2.3 percent in 12 months. Germany’s production industries suffered decline of 7.3 percent in Dec 2008 relative to Dec 2007 and decline of 2.3 percent in 2009. Recovery was vigorous with 17.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2010. The first quarter of 2011 was quite strong when the German economy outperformed the other advanced economies. The performance of Germany’s production industries from 2002 to 2006 was vigorous with average rate of 4.5 percent. Data for the production industries index of Germany fluctuate sharply from month to month and in 12-month rates.

Table VE-1A, Germany, Production Industries, Month and 12-Month ∆%

	12-Month ∆% NSA	Month ∆% Calendar SA
Jan 2015	-2.3	0.6
Dec 2014	2.7	1.0
Nov	-1.4	0.1
Oct	1.2	0.4
Sep	3.6	1.2
Aug	-4.9	-2.6
Jul	3.0	1.3
Jun	-2.2	0.4
May	4.0	-1.2
Apr	-1.6	-0.2
Mar	4.8	-0.5
Feb	5.8	0.4
Jan	3.3	0.3
Dec 2013	5.9	0.1
Nov	0.4	1.7
Oct	1.3	-0.7
Sep	4.2	-0.9
Aug	-2.8	2.1
Jul	1.9	-1.2
Jun	-0.4	1.9
May	-4.4	-1.1
Apr	7.5	0.9
Mar	-8.5	1.0
Feb	-4.9	0.8
Jan	-1.3	-0.7
Dec 2012	-9.4	0.2
Nov	-2.9	-0.7
Oct	4.1	-1.3
Sep	-6.7	-1.3
Aug	-0.6	0.1
Jul	2.4	0.9
Jun	4.2	-1.0
May	-6.3	1.6
Apr	-0.6	-2.0
Mar	-0.1	2.1
Feb	2.4	-0.4
Jan	4.8	0.8
Dec 2011	2.0	-1.8
Nov	3.9	-0.3
Oct	0.1	1.2
Sep	4.5	-1.8
Aug	10.2	-0.5
Jul	5.8	2.9
Jun	-0.8	-1.6
May	18.2	0.8
Apr	5.3	0.2
Mar	9.8	0.6
Feb	15.8	1.1
Jan	15.1	1.2
Dec 2010	17.1
Dec 2009	-2.3
Dec 2008	-7.3
Dec 2007	-0.1
Dec 2006	2.5
Dec 2005	4.9
Dec 2004	5.3
Dec 2003	5.1
Dec 2002	2.0
Dec 2001	-8.8
Dec 2000	0.2
Dec 1999	6.4
Average ∆% per Year
Dec 1996 to Dec 2014	1.7
Dec 1996 to Dec 2000	3.3
Dec 1996 to Dec 2006	2.4
Dec 2002 to Dec 2006	4.5

Source: Statistiche Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Table VE-2A provides monthly percentage changes of the German production industries index by components from Jun 2014 to Jan 2015. The index increased 0.6 percent in Jan 2015 with increase of 0.5 percent in capital goods and change of 0.0 percent in energy. There was change of 0.0 percent in manufacturing and decrease of 0.4 percent in intermediate goods. The index increased 1.0 percent in Dec 2014 with increases in all segments. The index increased 0.1 percent in Nov with increase in all segments with exception of decline of 1.9 percent in energy. The index increased 0.4 percent in Oct 2014 with all segments increasing with exception of decrease of 0.1 percent for capital goods.

Table VE-2A, Germany, Production Industries, Industry and Components, Month ∆%

	Jan 2015	Dec  2014	Nov	Oct	Sep	Aug	Jul	Jun
Production Industries	0.6	1.0	0.1	0.4	1.2	-2.6	1.3	0.4
Industry	0.0	1.2	0.4	0.4	1.3	-3.2	1.7	0.4
Mfg	0.0	1.2	0.4	0.4	1.2	-3.1	1.7	0.3
Intermediate Goods	-0.4	1.7	0.2	0.6	0.0	-1.5	0.7	0.5
Capital Goods	0.5	0.8	0.4	-0.1	3.5	-5.8	3.3	-0.3
Durable Goods	-3.9	4.9	2.3	0.3	0.1	-3.5	-0.2	2.2
Nondurable Goods	0.4	0.5	0.2	1.2	-1.7	0.8	-0.1	1.8
Energy	0.0	0.9	-1.9	0.5	2.5	1.2	-1.7	0.2

Seasonally Calendar Adjusted

Source: Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Table VE-3A provides 12-month unadjusted percentage changes of industry and components in Germany. There were percentage declines of 12-month rates in the production index of Germany and all segments in the four months from Dec 2012 to Mar 2013 with exception of nondurables in Jan 2013 and energy in Jan and Mar 2013. There is sharp recovery in Apr 2013 with growth of manufacturing by 7.9 percent and capital goods by 11.1 percent. All segments show declines in 12 months in May 2013. There are increases in the 12 months ending in Jun of 1.2 percent in capital goods and 2.8 percent in durable goods. All segments increased in Jul 2013. All segments fell in Aug 2013 with sharp declines. There is strong recovery in Sep with high rates of increase. Many segments increased in the 12 months ending in Oct 2013 with 1.7 percent growth in manufacturing and 2.0 percent in capital goods. Most segments increased in Nov 2013 with 1.1 percent in manufacturing and 1.9 percent in capital goods. All segments increased in Dec 2013 with exception of energy. Most segments increased in Jan 2014 with exception of declines for durable goods and energy. All segments increased in Feb 2014 with exception of energy. All segments increased in Mar 2014 with exception of energy. All segments decreased in Apr 2014 with exception of intermediate goods and nondurable goods. All segments increased in May 2014 with exception of energy. All segments fell in Jun 2014 with exception of nondurable goods. All segments increased in Jul 2014 with exception of energy and durable goods. All segments declined in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014. All segments increased in the 12 months ending in Sep 2014 with exception of energy. All segments increased in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014 with exception of energy and intermediate goods. All segments decreased in Nov 2014. All segments increased in Dec 2014. All segments fell in Jan 2015. All Percentage declines in 12 months are quite sharp in Dec 2012 with many percentage changes negative around two-digits. Although there are sharp fluctuations in the data, there is suggestion of deceleration that would be expected from much higher earlier rates. The deceleration is quite evident in single-digit percentage changes from Sep 2011 to Dec 2012 relative to high double-digit percentage changes in Jan-Mar 2011. There are multiple negative 12-month percentage changes across many segments. Growth rates in the recovery from the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009 were initially very vigorous in comparison with the growth rates before the contraction that are shown in the bottom part of Table VE-3A.

Table VE-3A, Germany, Industry and Components, 12-Month ∆% Unadjusted

	IND	MFG	INTG	CG	DG	NDG	EN
2015
Jan	-2.5	-2.5	-2.9	-2.2	-2.4	-2.2	-0.3
2014
Dec	3.4	3.4	2.9	3.7	7.1	2.4	0.8
Nov	-1.3	-1.3	-1.6	-1.4	-1.0	-0.4	-2.4
Oct	1.5	1.5	-0.2	3.0	0.7	1.5	-1.2
Sep	4.3	4.4	3.1	5.8	1.3	3.9	-2.9
Aug	-4.9	-4.7	-2.5	-8.2	-6.3	-0.6	-5.7
Jul	4.6	4.5	2.0	8.0	-0.3	2.2	-7.1
Jun	-1.8	-1.9	-1.4	-2.4	-6.3	0.6	-5.8
May	4.8	4.7	2.7	7.5	6.6	1.9	-2.4
Apr	-1.1	-0.8	0.9	-3.3	-4.2	1.8	-6.7
Mar	5.3	5.2	5.0	5.8	4.9	4.8	-9.3
Feb	5.9	5.9	6.5	5.9	4.4	4.7	-5.2
Jan	3.4	3.3	2.4	5.5	-1.4	1.3	-2.4
2013
Dec	6.2	6.1	7.1	6.4	5.2	4.2	-0.1
Nov	1.1	1.1	0.6	1.9	-0.4	0.5	-1.6
Oct	1.8	1.7	2.3	2.0	-0.4	0.0	-0.3
Sep	4.7	4.6	4.0	5.8	6.1	2.5	0.8
Aug	-2.9	-3.0	-4.0	-1.8	-7.5	-2.4	-3.1
Jul	1.6	1.6	2.1	0.5	4.1	3.5	0.7
Jun	-0.1	0.0	-1.6	1.2	2.8	-1.1	-1.6
May	-4.5	-4.4	-3.6	-5.9	-10.2	-0.9	-4.6
Apr	8.1	7.9	4.3	11.1	9.3	8.9	0.4
Mar	-8.4	-8.3	-7.3	-9.6	-9.0	-7.0	2.4
Feb	-5.1	-5.2	-5.7	-5.4	-6.1	-2.3	-8.9
Jan	-1.2	-1.1	-1.3	-2.7	-2.8	3.8	0.1
2012
Dec	-9.6	-9.4	-11.8	-8.5	-12.5	-7.0	-2.4
Nov	-3.1	-3.1	-3.9	-2.7	-7.6	-1.2	0.7
Oct	3.9	3.8	2.8	4.0	0.7	7.0	3.2
Sep	-7.6	-7.5	-8.8	-7.1	-11.2	-5.2	4.0
Aug	-1.1	-1.0	-3.2	0.3	0.4	0.7	4.5
Jul	2.0	2.0	0.3	4.6	-2.4	-0.7	2.2
Jun	3.8	3.7	1.9	6.5	7.2	0.3	6.7
May	-7.0	-6.8	-7.5	-6.1	-10.6	-7.7	4.0
Apr	-1.1	-1.1	-2.0	1.9	-5.3	-5.9	3.7
Mar	-0.5	-0.4	-3.1	2.8	-6.2	-2.3	-0.8
Feb	3.2	3.3	0.9	7.3	-0.1	-2.3	5.9
Jan	5.6	5.6	3.0	10.4	4.7	0.1	-3.3
2011
Dec	1.5	1.4	1.8	1.3	0.2	1.4	-9.2
Nov	4.6	4.5	2.9	8.1	2.3	-1.0	-5.8
Oct	0.6	0.7	-0.3	3.2	-2.3	-3.4	-6.1
Sep	5.7	5.7	4.6	9.2	3.4	-0.8	-6.1
Aug	12.4	12.2	9.3	20.4	4.8	1.4	-3.0
Jul	7.9	7.8	5.0	13.7	6.8	0.1	-5.7
Jun	0.5	0.5	0.2	2.3	-10.2	-2.1	-4.7
May	21.5	21.2	17.9	28.3	20.8	12.8	-7.3
Apr	7.5	7.5	6.1	11.1	4.6	1.6	-5.5
Mar	11.2	11.2	10.8	15.0	8.6	2.0	2.8
Feb	17.3	17.1	16.3	23.1	10.1	6.3	-0.4
Jan	17.2	16.9	17.5	23.1	9.9	3.6	-2.6
2010
Dec	17.6	17.6	14.8	25.9	8.5	1.7	2.6
Nov	13.9	13.9	12.9	19.2	7.7	3.9	3.5
Oct	9.9	9.9	9.7	14.0	6.3	0.8	2.5
Sep	9.8	9.5	12.2	10.1	8.3	2.6	2.1
Aug	16.9	17.0	19.3	19.9	18.3	6.9	1.3
Jul	9.0	8.9	13.2	8.7	7.4	0.8	1.9
Jun	16.4	16.2	20.8	16.1	19.7	5.1	-2.8
May	13.1	13.3	20.0	12.0	11.2	1.4	11.1
Apr	14.9	14.9	21.7	15.5	8.8	0.2	9.4
Mar	14.3	14.5	20.4	12.3	11.8	5.8	4.2
Feb	6.8	7.4	10.6	6.5	7.9	-1.0	3.7
Jan	0.4	0.9	6.3	-3.8	0.8	-3.0	0.8
Dec 2010	17.6	17.6	14.8	25.9	8.5	1.7	2.6
Dec 2009	-3.2	-3.1	3.3	-9.9	-0.1	1.1	3.7
Dec 2008	-7.6	-7.4	-14.3	-5.4	-11.2	3.7	-9.0
Dec 2007	0.0	-0.3	-0.6	2.5	-10.0	-2.7	1.6
Dec 2006	3.2	3.1	5.2	2.3	8.6	-0.9	-5.3
Dec 2005	5.8	5.9	3.5	9.0	3.2	2.1	0.6
Dec 2004	5.3	5.5	7.7	3.4	0.8	5.7	9.6
Dec 2003	5.5	5.3	5.5	6.4	1.7	4.4	0.3
Dec 2002	3.7	3.3	5.4	3.4	-5.9	2.3	-2.6

Note: IND: Industry; MFG: Manufacturing; INTG: Intermediate Goods; CG: Capital Goods; DG: Durable Goods; NDG: Nondurable Goods; EN: Energy

Source: Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Broader perspective since 2005 is provided by Chart VE-1A of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland, Federal Statistical Agency of Germany. The index of production industries not seasonally adjusted rises by more than one third between 2003 and 2008 with sharp fluctuations and then collapses during the global recession in 2008. Recovery has been in a steep upward trajectory that has recovered at the more recent peaks the losses during the contraction. Recovery stalled recently with increase at the margin.

Chart VE-1A, Germany, Production Industries, Not Adjusted, 2010=100

Source: Statistiche Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

More detail is provided by Chart VE-2 of the Statistiche Bundesamt Deutschland, or Federal Statistical Agency of Germany, with the unadjusted production industries index and trend from 2011 to 2015. There could be some flattening in recent months probably leading into stagnation, mild downturn and recent recovery as depicted by trend. There is weakness in the current segment with stability/decline followed with increase/stability.

Chart VE-2A, Germany, Production Industries, Not Adjusted, 2010=100

Source: Statistiche Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Table VE-4A provides month and 12-month rates of growth of manufacturing in Germany from Dec 2010 to Jan 2015. There are fluctuations in both monthly rates and in the past 12 months. In Jan 2013, manufacturing fell 1.1 percent and decreased 1.1 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing increased 1.0 percent in Feb 2013, declining 5.2 percent in 12 months. In Mar 2013, manufacturing increased 1.0 percent but fell 8.3 percent in 12 months. There is strong recovery in Apr 2013 with growth of 0.5 percent and 7.9 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 0.9 percent in May 2013 and declined 4.4 percent in 12 months. Recovery is strong in Jun 2013 with growth of 1.9 percent in the month but change of 0.0 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 1.8 percent in Jul 2013 and increased 1.6 percent in 12 months. In Aug 2013, manufacturing increased 2.8 percent and fell 3.0 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 1.2 percent in Sep 2013 and increased 4.6 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing increased 2.2 percent in Nov 2013 and 1.1 percent in 12 months. In Dec 2013, manufacturing increased 0.1 percent and increased 6.1 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing decreased 0.1 percent in Jan 2014, increasing 3.3 percent in 12 months. In Feb 2014, manufacturing increased 0.5 percent and 5.9 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 0.3 percent in Mar 2014 and increased 5.2 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing increased 0.2 percent in Apr 2014 and fell 0.8 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 1.4 percent in May, increasing 4.7 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing increased 0.3 percent in Jun 2014 and fell 1.9 percent in 12 months. In Jul 2014, manufacturing jumped 1.7 percent and increased 4.5 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 3.1 percent in Aug 2014 and declined 4.7 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing increased 1.2 percent in Sep 2014 and 4.4 percent in 12 months. In Oct 2014, manufacturing increased 0.4 percent and 1.5 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing grew 0.4 percent in Nov 2014 and fell 1.3 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing increased 1.2 percent in Dec 2014 and increased 3.4 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing change 0.0 percent in Jan 2015 and decreased 2.5 percent in 12 months.

Table VE-4A, Germany, Manufacturing Month and 12-Month ∆%

	12-Month ∆% NSA	Month ∆% SA and Calendar Adjusted
Jan 2015	-2.5	0.0
Dec 2014	3.4	1.2
Nov	-1.3	0.4
Oct	1.5	0.4
Sep	4.4	1.2
Aug	-4.7	-3.1
Jul	4.5	1.7
Jun	-1.9	0.3
May	4.7	-1.4
Apr	-0.8	0.2
Mar	5.2	-0.3
Feb	5.9	0.5
Jan	3.3	-0.1
Dec 2013	6.1	0.1
Nov	1.1	2.2
Oct	1.7	-0.6
Sep	4.6	-1.2
Aug	-3.0	2.8
Jul	1.6	-1.8
Jun	0.0	1.9
May	-4.4	-0.9
Apr	7.9	0.5
Mar	-8.3	1.0
Feb	-5.2	1.0
Jan	-1.1	-1.2
Dec 2012	-9.4	1.0
Nov	-3.1	-0.7
Oct	3.8	-1.3
Sep	-7.5	-1.7
Aug	-1.0	0.2
Jul	2.0	1.3
Jun	3.7	-1.4
May	-6.8	2.1
Apr	-1.1	-1.9
Mar	-0.4	1.0
Feb	3.3	0.3
Jan	5.6	0.8
Dec 2011	1.4	-1.7
Nov	4.5	-0.8
Oct	0.7	1.2
Sep	5.7	-1.9
Aug	12.2	-0.5
Jul	7.8	3.2
Jun	0.5	-1.7
May	21.2	1.1
Apr	7.5	0.6
Mar	11.2	0.7
Feb	17.1	1.3
Jan	16.9	0.0
Dec 2010	17.6	1.3

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-3A of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland, or Federal Statistical Office of Germany, provides the manufacturing index of Germany from 2011 to 2014. Manufacturing was already flattening in 2007 and fell sharply in 2008 to the beginning of 2010. Manufacturing grew sharply in the initial phase of recovery but has flattened in recent months as revealed by the trend that may be flattening.

Chart VE-3A, Germany, Production Index, Manufacturing, Not Adjusted Index and Trend, 2010=100

Source: Statistiche Bundesamt Deutschland https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Table VE-5 provides month and 12-month rates of growth of new orders of manufacturing in Germany from Jan 2010 to Jan 2015. There are fluctuations in both monthly rates and in the past 12 months. Table VE-1 reveals strong fluctuations in an evident deceleration of total orders for industry of Germany with recent oscillating improvement. Total orders for manufacturing decreased 3.9 percent in Jan 2015 and decreased 3.0 percent in 12 months. There is the same behavior for total, foreign and domestic orders with decline in 12-month rates from two-digit levels to single digits and negative changes. An important aspect of Germany is that the bulk of orders is domestic or from other European countries while foreign orders have been growing rapidly. There is weakening world trade affecting export economies. As in other countries, data on orders for manufacturing are highly volatile. Most 12-month percentage changes from Jan 2012 to Sep 2012 in Table VE-1 are negative largely because of the unusual strength of the Germany economy in the beginning of 2011 but more recently because of slowing world economy in 2012-2014.

Table VE-5, Germany, Volume of Orders Received in Manufacturing, Total, Domestic and Foreign, ∆%  

	Total 12 M	Total M	Foreign 12 M	Foreign M	Home 12 M	Home M
2015
Jan	-3.0	-3.9	-2.3	-4.8	-4.2	-2.5
2014
Dec	6.2	4.4	6.0	3.8	6.4	5.1
Nov	-1.4	-2.2	1.0	-0.3	-4.5	-4.5
Oct	2.6	2.8	2.2	0.4	3.1	5.9
Sep	2.1	1.2	4.1	4.3	-0.4	-2.6
Aug	-2.1	-4.2	-0.1	-6.6	-4.5	-1.0
Jul	5.9	4.7	9.3	7.4	1.5	1.1
Jun	-4.0	-2.5	-5.0	-3.2	-2.4	-1.4
May	7.7	-1.1	7.6	-0.4	7.8	-2.0
Apr	3.7	2.7	4.6	4.1	2.5	0.8
Mar	3.2	-2.3	2.5	-3.7	4.2	-0.3
Feb	7.6	0.5	9.3	0.2	5.6	1.1
Jan	5.8	0.3	8.2	-1.1	2.9	2.2
2013
Dec	8.4	-0.1	10.7	1.7	5.0	-2.4
Nov	4.5	0.8	6.0	-0.1	2.5	2.2
Oct	3.7	-0.6	4.1	-0.2	3.1	-1.1
Sep	11.2	2.9	13.7	5.4	8.0	-0.4
Aug	0.0	0.5	-0.9	-0.5	1.0	1.8
Jul	5.1	-3.0	5.5	-4.9	4.8	-0.3
Jun	4.8	5.1	7.9	6.0	0.7	3.9
May	-3.6	-0.4	-1.6	0.6	-6.2	-1.5
Apr	5.9	-2.3	7.6	-1.9	3.6	-2.8
Mar	-5.6	2.4	-4.4	2.9	-7.2	1.8
Feb	-2.7	1.4	-1.5	1.6	-4.2	1.1
Jan	0.3	-0.8	1.9	-2.1	-1.7	0.9
2012
Dec	-9.1	1.4	-6.7	1.9	-12.6	0.6
Nov	-0.9	-2.9	2.4	-4.5	-5.1	-0.6
Oct	4.5	3.9	7.0	6.8	1.3	0.3
Sep	-8.9	-2.0	-6.6	-3.4	-11.7	-0.4
Aug	-4.4	-0.5	-2.1	0.4	-7.1	-1.6
Jul	-1.6	0.3	0.6	0.4	-4.2	0.2
Jun	-4.5	-1.9	-6.4	-1.9	-1.7	-2.0
May	-11.0	1.1	-3.7	2.4	-18.8	-0.6
Apr	-3.9	-2.1	-4.4	-3.2	-3.1	-0.5
Mar	-2.2	2.7	-1.2	3.7	-3.3	1.4
Feb	-4.3	0.3	-4.7	1.4	-3.8	-0.9
Jan	-2.6	-1.9	-4.6	-3.2	-0.2	-0.4
2011
Dec	0.0	2.4	-0.3	4.5	0.5	0.0
Nov	-4.8	-3.2	-8.2	-5.2	-0.3	-0.7
Oct	0.1	1.7	2.1	3.3	-2.1	-0.2
Sep	2.2	-3.4	1.9	-4.5	2.6	-2.2
Aug	7.1	-0.6	5.2	0.6	9.4	-2.0
Jul	4.9	-2.4	4.6	-6.3	5.4	2.9
Jun	3.5	-0.2	7.8	9.3	-2.0	-10.6
May	23.1	2.8	16.0	-3.8	31.8	11.3
Apr	6.7	1.7	9.6	2.1	3.0	1.1
Mar	9.8	-2.9	12.3	-2.9	6.9	-3.0
Feb	21.5	0.7	24.1	0.2	18.4	1.6
Jan	22.5	3.9	26.1	3.9	18.2	4.0
2010
Dec	21.8	-2.7	26.8	-4.0	15.4	-1.1
Nov	21.4	5.3	27.1	8.7	15.0	1.2
Oct	14.2	0.5	18.2	0.2	10.0	0.9
Sep	13.9	-1.3	15.6	-3.4	11.9	1.6
Aug	22.2	2.6	29.7	4.7	14.5	0.0
Jul	14.1	-0.9	21.4	-1.0	6.4	-0.9
Jun	27.6	2.6	30.6	3.3	24.2	1.8
May	24.8	0.1	29.6	1.0	19.4	-0.9
Apr	29.9	2.9	34.0	3.0	25.7	3.0
Mar	29.4	5.0	32.9	5.1	25.8	4.9
Feb	24.0	-0.1	28.7	0.3	18.6	-0.7
Jan	17.0	3.9	23.8	4.6	9.8	3.1
Dec 2009	9.1	-1.7	10.5	-2.6	7.3	-0.5
Dec 2008	-28.3	-6.7	-31.5	-9.5	-23.7	-2.9
Dec 2007	7.1	-0.9	9.1	-2.0	4.4	0.2
Dec 2006	2.8	0.8	3.4	0.5	2.2	1.1
Dec 2005	5.0	-0.5	10.4	-1.1	-1.4	0.3
Dec 2004	12.7	6.5	13.0	8.5	12.7	4.9
Dec 2003	10.7	2.4	16.4	5.4	5.1	-0.8
Dec 2002	-0.2	-3.4	-0.8	-6.6	0.2	-0.3
Average ∆% 2003-2007	7.6		10.4		4.5
Average ∆% 2003-2012	2.3		3.9		0.3

Notes: AE: Annual Equivalent; M: Month; M: Calendar and seasonally adjusted; 12 M: Non-adjusted Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Orders for capital goods of Germany are shown in Table VE-6. Total capital goods orders decreased 4.2 percent in Jan 2015 and decreased 2.1 percent in 12 months. Domestic orders increased 0.4 percent in Jan 2015 and foreign orders decreased 6.6 percent. There has been deceleration from 2010 and early 2011 with growth rates falling from two digit levels to single digits, and multiple negative changes with recent improvement. An important aspect of Germany’s economy shown in Tables VE-5 and VE-6 is the success in increasing the competitiveness of its economic activities as shown by rapid growth of orders for industry after the recession of 2001 in the period before the global recession beginning in late 2007. Germany adopted fiscal and labor market reforms to increase productivity.

Table VE-6, Germany, Volume of Orders Received of Capital Goods Industries, Total, Foreign and Domestic, ∆%

	Total 12 M	Total M	Foreign 12 M	Foreign M	Domestic 12 M	Domestic M
2015
Jan	-2.1	-4.2	-2.6	-6.6	-1.1	0.4
2014
Dec	6.3	5.4	5.5	6.5	8.0	3.2
Nov	-0.9	-2.4	0.9	0.1	-3.9	-6.7
Oct	4.9	3.3	3.4	-0.3	7.6	9.8
Sep	1.1	1.7	2.4	4.5	-1.2	-3.1
Aug	-2.4	-6.7	-0.3	-9.7	-5.7	-1.0
Jul	8.8	9.0	12.6	12.3	2.3	3.3
Jun	-7.6	-5.0	-9.0	-6.2	-4.7	-3.0
May	10.1	-0.2	10.0	1.1	10.5	-2.4
Apr	5.4	3.7	6.4	5.8	3.6	0.4
Mar	3.2	-2.9	1.2	-5.0	6.5	0.7
Feb	7.4	0.2	9.0	-0.5	4.7	1.4
Jan	7.0	-0.7	9.4	-3.0	3.2	3.9
2013
Dec	10.7	1.1	14.8	4.6	3.2	-5.2
Nov	6.8	2.4	7.4	1.6	5.3	3.6
Oct	2.7	-3.2	2.1	-3.6	3.3	-2.5
Sep	14.6	4.0	17.1	7.3	10.3	-1.5
Aug	3.1	0.8	1.5	-0.8	5.7	3.8
Jul	6.3	-5.4	7.3	-7.6	5.0	-1.4
Jun	9.1	9.0	13.5	9.9	1.8	7.5
May	-3.1	-0.3	-0.4	1.5	-7.8	-3.3
Apr	6.0	-2.7	7.3	-3.2	3.7	-2.0
Mar	-5.9	1.5	-4.4	2.6	-8.2	-0.3
Feb	0.1	2.5	2.7	2.3	-4.0	2.6
Jan	3.1	-0.8	5.8	-1.3	-1.4	0.2
2012
Dec	-7.7	2.2	-4.6	2.3	-13.3	2.2
Nov	-0.7	-4.2	3.1	-5.8	-6.5	-1.4
Oct	4.6	5.2	6.3	7.9	2.1	0.8
Sep	-7.5	-1.2	-4.8	-2.3	-11.6	0.5
Aug	-4.6	-1.7	-2.6	-0.6	-7.4	-3.5
Jul	-0.3	0.5	1.2	0.8	-2.7	-0.1
Jun	-7.1	-1.8	-9.9	-2.1	-1.9	-1.3
May	-12.0	1.0	-2.8	2.0	-23.9	-0.4
Apr	-3.3	-3.4	-4.2	-4.6	-1.7	-1.6
Mar	2.2	5.3	3.3	7.8	0.2	1.2
Feb	-5.9	1.4	-7.0	1.7	-4.2	0.9
Jan	-3.7	-3.6	-6.5	-4.2	1.0	-2.8
2011
Dec	1.2	2.7	-0.1	3.6	3.5	1.1
Nov	-6.5	-4.3	-10.5	-7.4	0.7	1.0
Oct	3.1	3.6	6.2	6.2	-2.0	-0.7
Sep	2.9	-3.9	2.2	-5.3	4.0	-1.5
Aug	6.7	0.0	4.5	1.2	10.6	-2.0
Jul	7.2	-6.4	6.4	-10.3	8.8	0.9
Jun	9.1	1.5	13.3	14.4	2.0	-15.8
May	27.5	4.8	17.7	-4.7	43.5	20.9
Apr	11.0	3.7	14.1	4.8	6.3	2.1
Mar	12.0	-5.9	14.4	-5.4	8.5	-6.7
Feb	29.3	2.5	32.5	1.1	24.8	4.8
Jan	26.8	4.0	32.8	4.5	17.7	3.0
2010
Dec	27.4	-5.3	31.2	-7.4	21.1	-1.6
Nov	30.4	9.0	37.0	13.4	20.1	2.0
Oct	20.5	0.2	24.9	-0.8	14.3	1.7
Sep	18.2	-2.5	20.3	-5.0	14.7	2.0
Aug	27.5	5.5	40.0	7.8	11.5	1.9
Jul	14.1	-2.3	28.1	-2.3	-2.5	-2.2
Jun	32.0	3.6	38.7	5.1	22.1	1.0
May	26.2	1.9	36.6	1.9	12.8	1.8
Apr	31.0	3.0	41.4	3.7	18.1	2.0
Mar	25.8	6.4	33.8	7.4	15.7	4.8
Feb	21.2	-1.1	31.3	0.0	8.3	-2.9
Jan	17.0	4.3	29.6	2.7	2.8	7.1
Dec 2009	8.1	-1.2	13.6	-1.5	0.3	-1.0
Dec 2008	-32.2	-7.2	-36.8	-10.0	-24.5	-3.6
Dec 2007	9.4	-0.6	11.6	-2.3	6.1	2.2
Dec 2006	3.5	2.2	3.9	2.9	2.9	1.2
Dec 2005	1.8	-2.1	9.7	-2.5	-8.4	-1.6
Dec 2004	19.5	11.2	18.6	12.2	20.6	9.7
Dec 2003	11.7	2.1	17.2	5.0	5.4	-1.6
Dec 2002	-2.8	-4.3	-3.7	-8.1	-1.8	0.2
Average ∆% 2003-2007	9.0		12.1		4.9
Average ∆% 2003-2012	3.0		4.7		0.5

Notes: AE: Annual Equivalent; M: Month; M: Calendar and seasonally-adjusted; 12 M: Non-adjusted

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-4 of the German Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland shows the sharp upward trend of total orders in manufacturing before the global recession. There is also an obvious upward trend in the recovery from the recession with Germany’s economy being among the most dynamic in the advanced economies until the slowdown beginning in the final months of 2011 and what could be stationary series from late 2011 into 2012 but risk of decline/stability in the final segment.

Chart VE-4, Germany, Volume of Total Orders in Manufacturing, Non-Adjusted, 2010=100

Source:  Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-5 shows non-adjusted total orders in manufacturing and trend. There was sharp recovery from the global recession with subsequent decline. Trend reversed upwardly and could be flattening/increasing.

Chart VE-5, Germany, Volume of Total Orders in Manufacturing and Trend, Non-Adjusted, 2010=100

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Twelve-month rates of growth Germany’s exports and imports are shown in Table VE-7. Exports decreased 0.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2015 while imports decreased 2.3 percent. There was sharp decline in the rates in Jun and Jul 2011 to single-digit levels especially for exports. In the 12 months ending in Aug 2011, exports rose 14.6 percent and imports 13.2 percent. In Sep 2011, exports grew 10.4 percent relative to a year earlier and imports grew 11.7 percent. Growth rates in 12 months ending in Oct 2011 fell significantly to 3.5 percent for exports and 9.2 percent for imports. Lower prices may explain part of the decline in nominal values. Exports fell 3.8 percent in 12 months ending in Sep 2012, rebounding to growth of 10.5 percent in Oct 2012 and minus 0.4 percent in Nov 2012 but sharp decline of 7.3 percent in Dec 2012 followed by rebound of 2.8 percent in Jan 2013. Exports fell 3.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2013 and declined 4.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2013. In Apr 2013, exports increased 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Exports fell 4.9 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2013. Exports fell 5.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2013 and imports fell 2.3 percent. In the 12 months ending in Sep 2013, exports increased 3.3 percent and imports fell 0.2 percent. Exports increased 0.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2013 while imports fell 1.5 percent. Exports increased 0.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2013 and imports fell 0.2 percent. Exports increased 4.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013 while imports increased 2.5 percent. Exports increased 2.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2014 while imports increased 0.9 percent. Exports increased 4.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2014 and imports increased 5.6 percent. Exports increased 1.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2014 and imports 4.1 percent. Exports fell 0.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014 while imports increased 0.1 percent. In May 2014, exports increased 4.0 percent in 12 months. Exports increased 1.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2014 and 8.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2014. Exports fell 1.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014. Exports increased 8.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2014 and increased 5.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014. Exports increased 1.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2014. Imports decreased 4.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2012, rebounding to growth of 5.7 percent in Oct 2012, decreasing 1.5 percent in Nov 2012 and 7.8 percent in Dec 2012 and rebounding 3.5 percent in Jan 2013. Imports fell 5.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2013 and declined 6.9 percent in Mar 2013 relative to a year earlier. In Apr 2013, imports increased 4.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In May 2013, imports fell 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Imports fell 1.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2013. In Jul 2013, imports increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Imports fell 2.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2013. In the 12 months ending in Sep 2013, imports declined 0.2 percent. Imports fell 1.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2013. Imports fell 0.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2013 and increased 2.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013. Imports increased 0.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2014 and 5.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2014. Imports increased 4.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2014 and 0.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014. Imports fell 0.7 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2014 and increased 2.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2014. Imports increased 0.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2014 and fell 2.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014. Imports increased 8.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2014 and increased 0.8 percent in Oct 2014 relative to a year earlier. Imports increased 1.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2014. Imports increased 4.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2014 and fell 2.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2015. Growth was much stronger in the recovery during 2010 and 2011 from the fall from 2007 to 2009. Germany’s trade grew at high rates in 2006 and 2005.

Table VE-7, Germany, Exports and Imports NSA Euro Billions and 12-Month ∆%

	Exports EURO Billions	12- Month ∆%	Imports EURO Billions	12-Month ∆%
Jan 2015	89.9	-0.6	74.0	-2.3
Dec 2014	90.1	10.0	71.2	4.1
Nov	96.0	1.6	78.1	1.9
Oct	103.9	5.0	81.9	0.8
Sep	102.3	8.3	80.3	8.0
Aug	83.9	-1.1	70.0	-2.4
Jul	100.8	8.4	77.3	0.6
Jun	93.2	1.1	77.0	2.2
May	91.7	4.0	74.1	-0.7
Apr	93.4	-0.5	76.2	0.1
Mar	95.7	1.4	78.9	4.1
Feb	92.1	4.3	75.9	5.6
Jan	90.5	2.2	75.8	0.9
Dec 2013	81.9	4.3	68.3	2.5
Nov	94.5	0.8	76.7	-0.2
Oct	99.0	0.6	81.2	-1.5
Sep	94.4	3.3	74.4	-0.2
Aug	84.8	-5.9	71.7	-2.3
Jul	93.0	-0.4	76.9	1.0
Jun	92.2	-2.2	75.4	-1.2
May	88.2	-4.9	74.7	-3.0
Apr	93.9	7.6	76.1	4.4
Mar	94.3	-4.4	75.8	-6.9
Feb	88.3	-3.2	71.9	-5.2
Jan	88.5	2.8	75.1	3.5
Dec 2012	78.6	-7.3	66.6	-7.8
Nov	93.7	-0.4	76.8	-1.5
Oct	98.4	10.5	82.5	5.7
Sep	91.4	-3.8	74.5	-4.1
Aug	90.2	5.7	73.4	-0.1
Jul	93.3	9.1	76.2	1.5
Jun	94.3	7.0	76.3	1.4
May	92.7	0.3	77.0	-0.7
Apr	87.2	3.2	72.9	-1.1
Mar	98.7	0.1	81.5	2.1
Feb	91.2	7.9	75.8	4.6
Jan	86.1	8.6	72.6	4.6
Dec 2011	84.8	4.7	72.3	5.6
Nov	94.1	7.4	78.0	5.8
Oct	89.1	3.5	78.1	9.2
Sep	95.0	10.4	77.7	11.7
Aug	85.3	14.6	73.5	13.2
Jul	85.6	5.2	75.0	9.7
Jun	88.1	3.3	75.2	5.6
May	92.4	21.2	77.5	17.4
Apr	84.5	12.4	73.7	18.5
Mar	98.7	15.3	79.8	15.1
Feb	84.5	20.8	72.5	27.6
Jan	79.3	25.2	69.4	26.0
Dec 2010	81.0	20.0	68.4	24.4
Nov	87.6	21.2	73.7	30.9
Oct	86.0	18.7	71.5	19.2
Sep	86.0	21.2	69.5	17.0
Aug	74.4	23.8	64.9	27.1
Jul	81.4	15.3	68.4	24.4
Jun	85.3	27.5	71.2	33.9
May	76.2	25.6	66.1	31.3
Apr	75.2	16.8	62.2	14.4
Mar	85.6	22.0	69.3	18.0
Feb	70.0	9.7	56.8	3.2
Jan	63.4	-0.3	55.1	-1.9
Dec 2009	67.5	1.2	55.0	-7.3
Dec 2008	66.7	-8.6	59.4	-5.1
Dec 2007	73.0	-0.6	62.5	-0.1
Dec 2006	73.4	10.2	62.6	8.5
Dec 2005	66.6	11.5	57.7	18.1
Dec 2004	59.7	9.2	48.9	10.8
Dec 2003	54.7	7.6	44.1	3.9
Dec 2002	50.8	5.5	42.5	6.4
Dec 2001	48.2	-3.7	39.9	-17.5
Dec 2000	50.0		48.4

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-6 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland shows exports and trend of German exports. Growth has been with fluctuations around a strong upward trend that is milder than earlier in the recovery but could be moving upwardly after flattening.

Chart VE-6, Germany, Exports Original Value and Trend 2011-2015

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Imports in Chart VE-7 also fell sharply and have been recovering with fluctuations around a strong upward trend that could be flattening. There could be new downward trend.

Chart VE-7, Germany, Imports Original Value and Trend 2011-2015

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-8 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland shows the trade balance of Germany since 2010. There was sharp decline during the global recession and fluctuations around a mild upward trend during the recovery with stabilization followed by stronger trend in recent months and flattening/declining recently. The final segment could be increasing.

Chart VE-8, Germany, Trade Balance Original and Trend 2011-2015

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Table VE-6A provides monthly rates of growth of exports and imports of Germany. Exports decreased 2.1 percent calendar and seasonally adjusted (CSA) in Jan 2015 while imports decreased 0.3 percent. Export growth had been relatively strong from Dec 2012 to Apr 2013 with only one monthly decline of 1.5 percent in Feb 2013. Exports fell 1.0 percent in May 2013 and 1.6 percent in Jul 2013. Exports grew in four consecutive months from Aug to Nov 2013. Exports fell in Dec 2013, Feb-Mar 2014, May 2014, Aug 2014 and Nov 2014, increasing in Jan, Apr, Jun, Jul 2014, Sep 2014, Oct 2014 and Dec 2014. Export growth and import growth were vigorous in Jan-Mar 2011 when Germany’s economy outperformed most advanced economies but less dynamic and consistent in following months as world trade weakens.

Table VE-8, Germany, Exports and Imports Month ∆% Calendar and Seasonally Adjusted 

	Exports	Imports
Jan 2015	-2.1	-0.3
Dec 2014	2.8	-0.7
Nov	-1.5	1.1
Oct	0.2	-2.1
Sep	4.4	3.8
Aug	-4.6	-0.8
Jul	3.8	-1.7
Jun	1.1	3.7
May	-1.2	-2.4
Apr	2.8	0.4
Mar	-1.9	-1.2
Feb	-1.5	-0.2
Jan	3.1	3.1
Dec 2013	-1.9	-1.2
Nov	1.0	-0.4
Oct	0.5	3.1
Sep	0.5	-2.6
Aug	2.0	0.4
Jul	-1.6	0.8
Jun	0.3	-1.6
May	-1.0	1.6
Apr	0.3	1.3
Mar	1.6	0.6
Feb	-1.5	-3.1
Jan	1.7	2.8
Dec 2012	-0.1	-1.1
Nov	-2.0	-3.4
Oct	0.4	2.5
Sep	-3.2	-0.9
Aug	2.4	0.1
Jul	-0.1	0.7
Jun	-1.5	-2.8
May	4.6	4.8
Apr	-1.5	-3.9
Mar	0.2	1.1
Feb	1.2	3.3
Jan	2.9	-0.7
Dec 2011	-3.5	-1.8
Nov	3.2	0.1
Oct	-3.2	-0.5
Sep	0.9	-0.2
Aug	3.1	0.0
Jul	-1.8	0.6
Jun	-0.3	0.0
May	2.5	1.2
Apr	-3.5	-0.2
Mar	4.8	1.8
Feb	1.6	2.4
Jan	1.0	2.8
Dec 2010	-0.6	-2.1

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

There is extremely important information in Table VE-9 for the current sovereign risk crisis in the euro zone. Table VE-9 provides the structure of regional and country relations of Germany’s exports and imports with newly available data for Jan 2015. German exports to other European Union (EU) members are 60.2 percent of total exports in Jan 2015 and 60.2 percent in cumulative Jan 2015. Exports to the euro area are 38.0 percent of the total in Jan and 38.0 percent cumulative in Jan. Exports to third countries are 39.8 percent of the total in Jan and 39.8 percent cumulative in Jan. There is similar distribution for imports. Exports to non-euro countries are increasing 3.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2015, increasing 3.0 percent cumulative in Jan 2015 while exports to the euro area are decreasing 2.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2015 and decreasing 2.8 percent cumulative in Jan 2015. Exports to third countries, accounting for 39.8 percent of the total in Jan 2015, are decreasing 0.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2015 and decreasing 0.5 percent cumulative in Jan 2015, accounting for 39.8 percent of the cumulative total in Jan 2015. Price competitiveness through devaluation could improve export performance and growth. Economic performance in Germany is closely related to Germany’s high competitiveness in world markets. Weakness in the euro zone and the European Union in general could affect the German economy. This may be the major reason for choosing the “fiscal abuse” of the European Central Bank considered by Buiter (2011Oct31) over the breakdown of the euro zone. There is a tough analytical, empirical and forecasting doubt of growth and trade in the euro zone and the world with or without maintenance of the European Monetary Union (EMU) or euro zone. Germany could benefit from depreciation of the euro because of high share in its exports to countries not in the euro zone but breakdown of the euro zone raises doubts on the region’s economic growth that could affect German exports to other member states.

Table VE-9, Germany, Structure of Exports and Imports by Region, € Billions and ∆%

	Jan 2014  € Billions	Jan 12-Month ∆%	Cumulative Jan 2014 € Billions	Cumulative Jan 2014/ Jan 2013 ∆%
Total Exports	89.9	-0.6	89.9	-0.6
A. EU Members	54.1 % 60.2	-0.7	54.1 % 60.2	-0.7
Euro Area	34.2 % 38.0	-2.8	34.2 % 38.0	-2.8
Non-euro Area	19.9 % 22.1	3.0	19.9 % 22.1	3.0
B. Third Countries	35.8 % 39.8	-0.5	35.8 % 39.8	-0.5
Total Imports	74.0	-2.3	74.0	-2.3
C EU Members	47.0 % 63.5	-2.7	47.0 % 63.5	-2.7
Euro Area	32.2 % 43.5	-4.5	32.2 % 43.5	-4.5
Non-euro Area	14.8 % 20.0	1.4	14.8 % 20.0	1.4
D Third Countries	27.1 % 36.6	-1.5	27.1 % 36.6	-1.5

Notes: Total Exports = A+B; Total Imports = C+D

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/03/PE15_083_51.html

VF France. Table VF-FR provides growth rates of GDP of France with the estimates of Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE). The long-term rate of GDP growth of France from IVQ1949 to IVQ2014 is quite high at 3.2 percent. France’s growth rates were quite high in the four decades of the 1950s, 1960, 1970s and 1980s with an average growth rate of 4.0 percent compounding the average rates in the decades and discounting to one decade. The growth impulse diminished with 2.0 percent in the 1990s and 1.8 percent from 2000 to 2007. The average growth rate from 2000 to 2014, using fourth quarter data, is 1.0 percent because of the sharp impact of the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. Cobet and Wilson (2002) provide estimates of output per hour and unit labor costs in national currency and US dollars for the US, Japan and Germany from 1950 to 2000 (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 137-44). The average yearly rate of productivity change from 1950 to 2000 was 2.9 percent in the US, 6.3 percent for Japan and 4.7 percent for Germany while unit labor costs in USD increased at 2.6 percent in the US, 4.7 percent in Japan and 4.3 percent in Germany. From 1995 to 2000, output per hour increased at the average yearly rate of 4.6 percent in the US, 3.9 percent in Japan and 2.6 percent in Germany while unit labor costs in US fell at minus 0.7 percent in the US, 4.3 percent in Japan and 7.5 percent in Germany. There was increase in productivity growth in the G7 in Japan and France in the second half of the 1990s but significantly lower than the acceleration of 1.3 percentage points per year in the US. Lucas (2011May) compares growth of the G7 economies (US, UK, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Canada) and Spain, finding that catch-up growth with earlier rates for the US and UK stalled in the 1970s.

Table VF-FR, France, Average Growth Rates of GDP Fourth Quarter, 1949-2014

Period	Average ∆%
1949-2014	3.2
2007-2014	0.3
2000-2014	1.0
2000-2013	1.1
2000-2007	1.8
1990-1999	2.0
1980-1989	2.6
1970-1979	3.7
1960-1969	5.7
1950-1959	4.2

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=26&date=20150213

The Markit Flash France Composite Output Index increased from 49.3 in Jan to 52.2 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b6bc1f701e814e5fab60f5e56429f5e4). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds possible improvement in IQ2015 GDP (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b6bc1f701e814e5fab60f5e56429f5e4). The Markit France Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing with close association with French GDP, increased from 49.3 in Jan to 52.2 in Feb, indicating strong improvement (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/aa544adb5bb042b6999fbd0d92bf7a2f). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the France Services PMI^®, finds strengthening growth of services (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/aa544adb5bb042b6999fbd0d92bf7a2f). The Markit France Services Activity index increased from 49.4 in Jan to 53.4 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/aa544adb5bb042b6999fbd0d92bf7a2f). The Markit France Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^® decreased to 47.6 in Feb from 49.2 in Jan (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e784d5703ea041639d874f4aa5610ac1). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the France Manufacturing PMI^®, finds deterioration in manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e784d5703ea041639d874f4aa5610ac1). Table FR provides the country data table for France.

Table FR, France, Economic Indicators

CPI	Feb month ∆% 0.7 12 months ∆%: -0.3 3/15/15
PPI	Jan month ∆%: -0.9 Jan 12 months ∆%: -3.3 Blog 3/1/15
GDP Growth	IVQ2014/IIIQ2014 ∆%:0.1 IVQ2014/IVQ2013 ∆%: 0.2 Blog 3/31/13 5/19/12 6/30/13 9/29/13 11/17/13 12/29/13 2/16/14 4/6/14 5/18/14 6/29/14 8/17/14 9/28/14 11/16/14 12/28/14 2/15/15
Industrial Production	Dec ∆%: Manufacturing 1.2 12-Month ∆%: Manufacturing 0.3 Blog 2/15/15
Consumer Spending	Manufactured Goods Jan ∆%: 0.2 Jan 12-Month Manufactured Goods ∆%: 1.3 Blog 3/8/15
Employment	Unemployment Rate: IVQ2014 10.0% Blog 3/15/15
Trade Balance	Jan Exports ∆%: month -2.5, 12 months 1.3 Jan Imports ∆%: month -1.3, 12 months -3.1 Blog 3/15/15
Confidence Indicators	Historical average 100 Feb Mfg Business Climate 99.0 Blog 3/1/15

Links to blog comments in Table FR:

3/8/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-competitive-devaluation-rules.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

12/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/financial-risks-twenty-six-million.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

9/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

12/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/collapse-of-united-states-dynamism-of.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

6/30/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/tapering-quantitative-easing-policy-and.html

5/19/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/word-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

The number of unemployed in France rose from 1.974 million in IVQ2007, for a rate of unemployment of 7.1 percent, to 2.877 million in IVQ2014, for a rate of unemployment of 10.0 percent, as shown in Table VF-1. At the same time, the rate of employment fell from 64.7 percent in IVQ2007 to 64.2 percent in IVQ2014. 

Table VF-1, France, Metropolitan France, Employment Rate, Unemployed and Unemployment Rate, Millions and %

	Unemployed Millions	Unemployed Percent	Employment Rate
IVQ2014	2.877	10.0	64.2
IIIQ2014	2.841	9.9	64.1
IIQ2014	2.762	9.7	64.2
IQ2014	2.770	9.7	64.2
IVQ2013	2.753	9.6	64.2
IIIQ2013	2.841	9.9	64.2
IIQ2013	2.847	10.0	64.0
IQ2013	2.820	9.9	63.9
IVQ2012	2.775	9.7	64.2
IIIQ2012	2.681	9.4	64.0
IIQ2012	2.650	9.3	64.0
IQ2012	2.577	9.1	63.9
IVQ2011	2.526	8.9	63.9
IIIQ2011	2.480	8.8	63.9
IIQ2011	2.439	8.6	64.0
IQ2011	2.460	8.7	64.0
IVQ2010	2.475	8.8	63.9
IIIQ2010	2.499	8.8	64.0
IIQ2010	2.510	8.9	64.0
IQ2010	2.537	9.0	64.1
IVQ2009	2.563	9.1	63.8
IIIQ2009	2.480	8.8	63.9
IIQ2009	2.490	8.8	64.2
IQ2009	2.307	8.2	64.5
IVQ2008	2.062	7.4	64.9
IIIQ2008	1.976	7.1	64.9
IIQ2008	1.940	7.0	64.9
IQ2008	1.900	6.8	65.0
IV2007	1.974	7.1	64.7
IIIQ2007	2.124	7.6	64.5
IIQ2007	2.160	7.8	64.2
IQ2007	2.237	8.1	64.0
IVQ2006	2.195	8.0	64.0
IVQ2005	2.367	8.7	63.6
IVQ2004	2.313	8.5	63.8
IVQ2003	2.260	8.4	63.9
IVQ2002	2.045	7.6
IVQ2001	1.974	7.5
IVQ2000	2.017	7.7
IVQ1999	2.363	9.1
IVQ1995	2.441	9.6
IVQ1990	1.873	7.6
IVQ1985	2.086	8.5
IVQ1980	1.272	5.3
IVQ1975	0.812	3.6

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=14&date=20150305

Chart VF-1 of the Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques of France provides an excellent view of the unemployment rate in France. The rate of unemployment rose from 1975 to 1987 and then fell sharply. The rate of unemployment increased in the recession of the early 1990s followed by sharp decline. The rate of unemployment increased in the recession of the early 2000s and fell again during the expansion. The rate of unemployment rose sharply during the global recession with initial recovery followed by another increase and stability.

Chart VF-1, Metropolitan France, ILO Definition Unemployment Rate, IQ1975-IVQ2014

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=14&date=20150305

Chart VF-2 of the Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques of France provides an excellent view of the unemployment rate in France. The rate of unemployment rose from 2003 to 2006 and then fell sharply in 2007. The global recession caused sharp increase in the French rate of unemployment that has declined from the peak, stabilized at a high level and is climbing/stabilizing.

Chart VF-2, France, Unemployment Rate International Labor Organization Criterion, Seasonally Adjusted Average over Quarter, Percent

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=14&date=20150305

France has been running a trade deficit fluctuating around €5,000 million as shown in Table VF-2. Exports decreased 2.5 percent in Jan 2015 while imports decreased 1.3 percent. The trade deficit increased from revised €3296 million in Dec 2014 to €3726 million in Jan 2015.

Table VF-2, France, Exports, Imports and Trade Balance, € Millions 

	Exports	Imports	Trade Balance
Jan 2015	36,849	40,575	-3,726
Dec 2014	37,806	41,102	-3,296
Nov	37,133	40,312	-3,179
Oct	36,945	41,075	-4,130
Sep	36,772	41,190	-4,418
Aug	36,248	41,046	-4,798
Jul	36,154	41,441	-5,287
Jun	36,693	41,773	-5,080
May	36,064	40,984	-4,920
Apr	36,132	40,002	-3,870
Mar	36,283	41,235	-4,952
Feb	36,301	40,028	-3,727
Jan	36,359	41,874	-5,515
Dec 2013	36,507	41,901	-5,394
Dec 2012	36,861	42,366	-5,505
Dec 2011	35,767	41,065	-5,298
Dec 2010	33,751	39,167	-5,416

Source: France, Direction générale des douanes et droits indirects

http://lekiosque.finances.gouv.fr/AppChiffre/Portail_default.asp

Table VF-3 provides month and 12-month percentage changes of France’s exports and imports. Exports decreased 2.5 percent in Jan 2015 and increased 1.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2015. Imports decreased 1.3 percent in Jan 2015 and decreased 3.1 percent in 12 months. Growth of exports and imports has fluctuated in 2011, 2012 and 2013-2015 because of price surges of commodities and raw materials. Weak economic conditions worldwide also influence trade performance.

Table VF-3, France, Exports and Imports, Month and 12-Month ∆%

	Exports Month ∆%	Exports 12-Month ∆%	Imports Month ∆%	Imports 12-Month ∆%
Jan 2015	-2.5	1.3	-1.3	-3.1
Dec 2014	1.8	3.6	2.0	-1.9
Dec 2013		-1.0		-1.1
Dec 2012		3.1		3.2
Dec 2011		6.0		4.8
Dec 2010		12.9		14.3
Dec 2009		-9.3		-2.0
Dec 2008		-6.8		-11.1
Dec 2007		5.6		8.1
Dec 2006		6.6		6.4
Dec 2005		11.8		15.6
Dec 2004		-3.7		5.8
Dec 2003		7.1		1.6

Source: France, Direction générale des douanes et droits indirects

http://lekiosque.finances.gouv.fr/AppChiffre/Portail_default.asp

Annual data for France’s exports, imports and trade balance are provided in Table VF-4. France’s trade balance deteriorated sharply from 2007 to 2011 with the deficit increasing from €42,494 million in 2007 to €74,510 million in 2011. Annual growth rates of exports have not been sufficiently high to compensate for growth of imports driven in part by commodity price increases. In 2012, the trade deficit declined to €67,267 million with growth of exports of 3.1 percent and of imports of 1.2 percent. The trade deficit declined to €60,659 million in 2013 with declines of exports of 1.2 percent and of 2.3 percent for imports. The trade deficit fell in 2014 to €53,519 million with increase of exports of 0.1 percent and decline of imports of 1.5 percent.

Table VF-4, France, Exports, Imports and Balance Year € Millions and ∆%

	Exports € Millions	∆%	Imports € Millions	∆%	Balance € Millions
Jan 2015 12 Months	436,825		488,190		-51,365
Year
2014	437,251	0.1	490,170	-1.5	-53,519
2013	436,754	-1.2	497,413	-2.3	-60,659
2012	441,948	3.1	509,215	1.2	-67,267
2011	428,609	8.5	503,119	12.4	-74,510
2010	395,039	14.0	447,483	14.2	-52,444
2009	346,481	-17.0	391,872	-17.3	-45,391
2008	417,636	2.7	473,853	5.5	-56,217
2007	406,487	3.0	448,981	5.8	-42,494
2006	394,621	9.5	424,549	10.4	-29,928
2005	360,376	4.4	384,588	9.6	-24,212
2004	345,256	5.4	350,996	7.0	-5,740
2003	327,653		327,884		-231

Source: France, Direction générale des douanes et droits indirects

http://lekiosque.finances.gouv.fr/AppChiffre/Portail_default.asp

VG Italy. Table VG-IT provides percentage changes in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier of Italy’s expenditure components in chained volume measures. GDP has been declining at sharper rates from minus 1.0 percent in IVQ2011 to minus 2.7 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.6 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.0 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.4 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.8 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.1 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and decreased 0.3 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and fell 0.5 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. The aggregate demand components of consumption and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) have been declining at faster rates. The rates of decline of GDP, consumption and GFCF were somewhat milder in IIIQ2013 and IVQ2013 than in IQ2013 and the final three quarters of 2012. Consumption fell 0.4 percent in IQ2014 and GFCF fell 2.5 percent. In IIQ2014, consumption decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier and GFCF fell 3.3 percent. GDP fell 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier while consumption increased 0.2 percent and GFCF fell 4.2 percent. GDP fell 0.5 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier while consumption increased 0.3 percent and GFCF fell 3.0 percent.

Table VG-IT, Italy, GDP and Expenditure Components, Chained Volume Measures, Quarter ∆% on Same Quarter Year Earlier

	GDP	Imports	Consumption	GFCF	Exports
2014
IVQ	-0.5	2.0	0.3	-3.0	3.8
IIIQ	-0.5	1.3	0.2	-4.2	1.7
IIQ	-0.3	2.8	-0.1	-3.3	2.6
IQ	-0.1	0.4	-0.4	-2.5	3.8
2013
IVQ	-0.8	0.8	-1.2	-4.1	1.2
IIIQ	-1.4	-1.5	-2.1	-4.2	0.0
IIQ	-2.0	-3.7	-2.5	-6.4	0.2
IQ	-2.6	-4.3	-2.7	-8.4	1.5
2012
IVQ	-2.7	-7.5	-3.3	-9.6	1.7
IIIQ	-3.1	-8.2	-3.5	-10.2	3.0
IIQ	-3.1	-8.9	-3.5	-9.6	1.6
IQ	-2.3	-8.7	-3.1	-8.1	1.8
2011
IVQ	-1.0	-7.1	-2.0	-4.5	2.5
IIIQ	0.4	0.3	-0.8	-2.3	4.6
IIQ	1.4	3.8	0.3	-0.6	7.5
IQ	2.0	8.4	0.7	0.7	10.2
2010
IVQ	2.3	14.6	1.3	0.9	13.0
IIIQ	1.8	12.9	1.1	0.6	12.4
IIQ	1.9	14.2	1.0	-0.4	13.2
IQ	0.7	6.7	0.9	-3.3	6.8
2009
IVQ	-3.5	-6.3	0.2	-8.2	-9.3
IIIQ	-5.0	-12.2	-0.8	-12.6	-16.4
IIQ	-6.6	-17.9	-1.4	-13.6	-21.4
IQ	-6.9	-17.2	-1.8	-12.4	-22.8
2008
IVQ	-3.0	-8.2	-0.9	-8.3	-10.3
IIIQ	-1.9	-5.0	-0.8	-4.5	-3.9
IIQ	-0.2	-0.1	-0.3	-1.5	0.4
IQ	0.5	1.7	0.1	-1.0	2.9

GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/151830

The Markit/ADACI Business Activity Index decreased from 51.2 in Jan to 50.0 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b9a27bc11e08444fbd9ee7806f41ef6a). Phil Smith, Economist at Markit and author of the Italy Services PMI^®, finds weak demand in stabilizing economy (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b9a27bc11e08444fbd9ee7806f41ef6a). The Markit/ADACI Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®), increased from 49.9 in Jan to 51.9 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4ad026cef63847b2873d36705141c799). New export orders continued to increase. Phil Smith, Economist at Markit and author of the Italian Manufacturing PMI^®, finds strengthening conditions in manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4ad026cef63847b2873d36705141c799). Table IT provides the country data table for Italy.

Table IT, Italy, Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index	Feb month ∆%: 0.4 Feb 12-month ∆%: -0.1 Blog 3/15/15
Producer Price Index	Jan month ∆%: -1.6 Jan 12-month ∆%: -3.7 Blog 3/8/15
GDP Growth	IVQ2014/IIIQ2014 SA ∆%: 0.0 IVQ2014/IVQ2013 NSA ∆%: minus 0.5 Blog 3/17/13 6/16/13 8/11/13 9/15/13 11/17/13 12/15/13 2/16/14 3/16/14 5/18/14 6/15/14 8/10/14 8/31/14 10/19/14 11/16/14 12/7/14 2/15/15 3/15/15
Labor Report	Jan 2015 Participation rate 64.0% Employment ratio 55.8% Unemployment rate 12.6% Youth Unemployment 41.2% Blog 3/8/15
Industrial Production	Dec month ∆%: 0.4 12 months CA ∆%: 0.1 Blog 2/15/15
Retail Sales	Dec month ∆%: -0.2 Dec 12-month ∆%: 0.1 Blog 3/1/15
Business Confidence	Mfg Feb 99.1, Oct 96.3 Construction Feb 76.6, Oct 77.4 Blog 3/1/15
Trade Balance	Balance Dec SA €5153 million versus Nov €3816 Exports Dec month SA ∆%: 2.6; Imports month ∆%: -1.6 Exports 12 months Dec NSA ∆%: 6.3 Imports 12 months NSA ∆%: -1.3 Blog 2/22/15

Links to blog comments in Table IT:

3/8/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-competitive-devaluation-rules.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

12/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/financial-risks-twenty-six-million.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

10/19/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/imf-view-squeeze-of-economic-activity.html

8/31/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitical-and-financial-risks.html

8/10/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/volatility-of-valuations-of-risk_10.html

6/15/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financialgeopolitical-risks-recovery.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

8/11/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/recovery-without-hiring-loss-of-full.html

6/16/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/recovery-without-hiring-seven-million.html

3/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

Table VG-1 provides revised percentage changes of GDP in Italy of quarter on prior quarter and quarter on same quarter a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2014 and fell 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 and fell 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.2 percent in IIQ2014 and declined 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy decreased 0.1 percent in IQ2014 and fell 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2013 and fell 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy decreased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2013, interrupting eight consecutive quarterly declines, and fell 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.1 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.8 percent in IQ2013 and declined 2.6 percent relative to IQ2012. GDP had been growing during six consecutive quarters but at very low rates from IQ2010 to IIQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell in eight consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IIQ2013 at increasingly higher rates of contraction from 0.6 percent in IIIQ2011 to 1.1 percent in IVQ2011, 0.9 percent in IQ2012 and 0.6 percent in IIQ2012 and 0.6 percent in IIIQ2012. The pace of decline accelerated to minus 0.6 percent in IVQ2012 and 0.8 percent in IQ2013, declining to minus 0.1 percent in IIQ2013 and 0.1 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP contracted cumulatively 5.2 percent in eight consecutive quarterly contractions from IIIQ2011 to IIQ2013 at the annual equivalent rate of minus 2.7 percent. The total contraction in the 12 quarters including IVQ2013, IIQ2014 and IIIQ2014 accumulates to 5.6 percent. The yearly rate has fallen from 2.3 percent in IVQ2010 to minus 2.6 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.0 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.4 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.8 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.1 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and fell 0.3 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and fell 0.5 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. Using seasonally and calendar adjusted data in the dataset of EUROSTAT (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat), the GDP of Italy in IVQ2014 is lower by 9.6 percent relative to IQ2008. The fiscal adjustment of Italy is significantly more difficult with the economy not growing especially on the prospects of increasing government revenue. The strategy is for reforms to improve productivity, facilitating future fiscal consolidation.

Table VG-1, Italy, GDP ∆%

	Quarter ∆% Relative to Preceding Quarter	Quarter ∆% Relative to Same Quarter Year Earlier
IVQ2014	0.0	-0.5
IIIQ2014	-0.1	-0.5
IIQ2014	-0.2	-0.3
IQ2014	-0.1	-0.1
IVQ2013	0.0	-0.8
IIIQ2013	0.1	-1.4
IIQ2013	-0.1	-2.0
IQ2013	-0.8	-2.6
IVQ2012	-0.6	-2.7
IIIQ2012	-0.6	-3.1
IIQ2012	-0.6	-3.1
IQ2012	-0.9	-2.3
IVQ2011	-1.1	-1.0
IIIQ2011	-0.6	0.4
IIQ2011	0.2	1.4
IQ2011	0.4	2.0
IVQ2010	0.4	2.3
IIIQ2010	0.5	1.8
IIQ2010	0.7	1.9
IQ2010	0.5	0.7
IVQ2009	-0.1	-3.5
IIIQ2009	0.4	-5.0
IIQ2009	-0.3	-6.6
IQ2009	-3.5	-6.9
IVQ2008	-1.6	-3.0
IIIQ2008	-1.3	-1.9
IIQ2008	-0.5	-0.2
IQ2008	0.5	0.5
IV2007	-0.4	0.1
IIIQ2007	0.3	1.7
IIQ2007	0.2	2.0
IQ2007	0.0	2.4

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/151830

Table VG-2 provides percentage changes in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier of Italy’s expenditure components in chained volume measures. GDP has been declining at sharper rates from minus 1.0 percent in IVQ2011 to minus 2.7 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.6 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.0 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.4 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.8 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.1 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and decreased 0.3 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and fell 0.5 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. The aggregate demand components of consumption and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) have been declining at faster rates. The rates of decline of GDP, consumption and GFCF were somewhat milder in IIIQ2013 and IVQ2013 than in IQ2013 and the final three quarters of 2012. Consumption fell 0.4 percent in IQ2014 and GFCF fell 2.5 percent. In IIQ2014, consumption decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier and GFCF fell 3.3 percent. GDP fell 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier while consumption increased 0.2 percent and GFCF fell 4.2 percent. GDP fell 0.5 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier while consumption increased 0.3 percent and GFCF fell 3.0 percent.

Table VG-2, Italy, GDP and Expenditure Components, Chained Volume Measures, Quarter ∆% on Same Quarter Year Earlier

	GDP	Imports	Consumption	GFCF	Exports
2014
IVQ	-0.5	2.0	0.3	-3.0	3.8
IIIQ	-0.5	1.3	0.2	-4.2	1.7
IIQ	-0.3	2.8	-0.1	-3.3	2.6
IQ	-0.1	0.4	-0.4	-2.5	3.8
2013
IVQ	-0.8	0.8	-1.2	-4.1	1.2
IIIQ	-1.4	-1.5	-2.1	-4.2	0.0
IIQ	-2.0	-3.7	-2.5	-6.4	0.2
IQ	-2.6	-4.3	-2.7	-8.4	1.5
2012
IVQ	-2.7	-7.5	-3.3	-9.6	1.7
IIIQ	-3.1	-8.2	-3.5	-10.2	3.0
IIQ	-3.1	-8.9	-3.5	-9.6	1.6
IQ	-2.3	-8.7	-3.1	-8.1	1.8
2011
IVQ	-1.0	-7.1	-2.0	-4.5	2.5
IIIQ	0.4	0.3	-0.8	-2.3	4.6
IIQ	1.4	3.8	0.3	-0.6	7.5
IQ	2.0	8.4	0.7	0.7	10.2
2010
IVQ	2.3	14.6	1.3	0.9	13.0
IIIQ	1.8	12.9	1.1	0.6	12.4
IIQ	1.9	14.2	1.0	-0.4	13.2
IQ	0.7	6.7	0.9	-3.3	6.8
2009
IVQ	-3.5	-6.3	0.2	-8.2	-9.3
IIIQ	-5.0	-12.2	-0.8	-12.6	-16.4
IIQ	-6.6	-17.9	-1.4	-13.6	-21.4
IQ	-6.9	-17.2	-1.8	-12.4	-22.8
2008
IVQ	-3.0	-8.2	-0.9	-8.3	-10.3
IIIQ	-1.9	-5.0	-0.8	-4.5	-3.9
IIQ	-0.2	-0.1	-0.3	-1.5	0.4
IQ	0.5	1.7	0.1	-1.0	2.9

GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/151830

Table VG-3 provides percentage changes in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier for GDP and value added components. Percentage declines of industry have been sharper from IVQ2011 to IVQ2013 than for services. Industry contracted 0.7 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier while services increased 0.3 percent. In IIQ2014, industry contracted 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier while services increased 0.1 percent. Industry contracted 1.8 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier while services changed 0.0 percent. Industry contracted 1.8 percent in IVQ2014 while services increased 0.2 percent.

Table VG-3, Italy, GDP and Valued Added of Components, Chained Volume Measures, Quarter ∆% on Same Quarter Year Earlier

	Agriculture	Industry	Services	VA	GDP Market Prices
% Value Added 2014	2.0	23.1	74.9
2014
IVQ	-6.9	-1.8	0.2	-0.5	-0.5
IIIQ	-1.0	-1.8	0.0	-0.5	-0.5
IIQ	-0.7	-1.2	0.1	-0.2	-0.3
IQ	-0.2	-0.7	0.3	0.0	-0.1
2013
IV	3.8	-1.9	-0.3	-0.6	-0.8
IIIQ	2.7	-3.7	-0.3	-1.1	-1.4
IIQ	-0.8	-4.1	-0.8	-1.6	-2.0
IQ	1.7	-4.6	-1.5	-2.1	-2.6
2012
IVQ	-5.0	-4.0	-1.7	-2.3	-2.7
IIIQ	-4.3	-3.1	-2.5	-2.7	-3.1
IIQ	0.7	-4.2	-2.4	-2.8	-3.1
IQ	-1.7	-3.5	-1.6	-2.0	-2.3
2011
IVQ	3.0	-2.4	-0.5	-0.9	-1.0
IIIQ	2.6	-1.0	0.8	0.4	0.4
IIQ	0.9	1.1	1.6	1.4	1.4
IQ	1.2	3.3	1.6	2.0	2.0
2010
IVQ	1.5	4.0	1.7	2.2	2.3
IIIQ	-1.0	5.2	1.0	1.9	1.8
IIQ	0.6	5.3	1.0	2.0	1.9
IQ	0.5	1.1	0.6	0.7	0.7
2009
IVQ	-3.7	-7.4	-2.4	-2.0	-3.5
IIIQ	-0.3	-13.3	-2.1	-4.3	-5.0
IIQ	-4.1	-16.7	-3.0	-5.6	-6.6
IQ	-1.9	-16.5	-3.3	-6.6	-6.9
2008
IVQ	2.2	-8.2	-1.3	-2.1	-3.0
IIIQ	1.0	-3.9	-1.2	-1.7	-1.9
IIQ	2.3	-0.6	0.0	-1.4	-0.2
IQ	0.1	1.0	0.4	-0.1	0.5

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/151830

Chart VG-1 of the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) provides growth of GDP of Italy at market prices. The year on year rate of growth pulled strongly out of the contraction. There is evident trend of deceleration with increasingly sharper contraction and mild moderation in 2013 and 2014.

Chart VG-1, Italy, GDP at Market Prices, ∆% on Same Quarter Year Earlier

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/

VH United Kingdom. Annual data in Table VH-UK show the strong impact of the global recession in the UK with decline of GDP of 4.3 percent in 2009 after dropping 0.3 percent in 2008. Recovery of 1.9 percent in 2010 is relatively low in comparison with annual growth rates in 2007 and earlier years. Growth was only 1.6 percent in 2011 and 0.7 percent in 2012. Growth increased to 1.7 percent in 2013 and 2.6 percent in 2014. The bottom part of Table VH-UK provides average growth rates of UK GDP since 1948. The UK economy grew at 2.6 percent per year on average between 1948 and 2013, which is relatively high for an advanced economy. The growth rate of GDP between 2000 and 2007 is higher at 2.9 percent. Growth in the current cyclical expansion from 2010 to 2014 has been only at 1.7 percent as advanced economies struggle with weak internal demand and world trade. GDP in 2014 higher by 3.7 percent relative to 2007 while it would have been 22.2 higher at trend of 2.9 percent as from 2000 to 2007.

Table VH-UK, UK, Gross Domestic Product, ∆%

	∆% on Prior Year
1998	3.5
1999	3.2
2000	3.8
2001	2.7
2002	2.5
2003	4.3
2004	2.5
2005	2.8
2006	3.0
2007	2.6
2008	-0.3
2009	-4.3
2010	1.9
2011	1.6
2012	0.7
2013	1.7
2014	2.6
Average Growth Rates ∆% per Year
1948-2014	2.6
1950-1959	3.1
1960-1969	3.1
1970-1979	2.6
1980-1989	3.1
1990-1999	2.2
2000-2007	2.9
2007-2013*	1.1
2007-2014*	3.7
2000-2014	1.7

*Absolute change from 2007 to 2012 an from 2007 to 2013

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/second-estimate-of-gdp/q4-2014/index.html

The Business Activity Index of the Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI^® decreased from 57.2 in Jan to 56.7 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/55c2dfd969034d85b23cd35747e754c6). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds the combined indices consistent with the UK economy growing at around 0.6 percent in IQ2015 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/55c2dfd969034d85b23cd35747e754c6). The Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®) increased to 54.1 in Feb from 53.1 in Jan (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/194fc399a4b94c9a8f8b659e4a221dcd). New export orders weakened. Rob Dobson, Senior Economist at Markit that compiles the Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI^®, finds that manufacturing conditions suggest growth at a quarterly rate of 0.5 percent (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/194fc399a4b94c9a8f8b659e4a221dcd). Table UK provides the economic indicators for the United Kingdom.

Table UK, UK Economic Indicators

CPI	Jan month ∆%: -0.9 Dec 12-month ∆%: 0.3 Blog 2/22/15
Output/Input Prices	Output Prices: Jan 12-month NSA ∆%: -1.8; excluding food, petroleum ∆%: 0.5 Input Prices: Dec 12-month NSA ∆%: -14.2 Excluding ∆%: -2.9 Blog 2/22/15
GDP Growth	IVQ2014 prior quarter ∆% 0.5; year earlier same quarter ∆%: 2.7 Blog 3/31/13 4/28/13 5/26/13 7/28/13 8/25/13 9/29/13 10/27/13 12/1/13 12/22/13 2/2/14 3/2/14 4/6/14 5/4/14 5/25/14 6/29/14 7/27/14 8/17/14 10/5/14 10/26/14 11/30/14 12/28/14 2/1/15 3/1/15
Industrial Production	Dec 2014/Dec 2013 ∆%: Production Industries 0.5; Manufacturing 2.4 Blog 2/15/15
Retail Sales	Jan month ∆%: -0.3 Jan 12-month ∆%: 5.4 Blog 2/22/15
Labor Market	Oct-Dec Unemployment Rate: 5.7%; Claimant Count 2.5%; Earnings Growth 2.1% Blog 2/22/15 LMGDP 11/16/14
GDP and the Labor Market	IIIQ2014 Weekly Hours 103.4, GDP 103.3, Employment 103.7 IQ2008 =100 GDP IIIQ14 103.3 IQ2008=100 Blog 11/16/14
Trade Balance	Balance SA Aug minus ₤2895 million Exports Dec ∆%: -0.2; Oct-Dec ∆%: -0.1 Imports Dec ∆%: -2.2 Oct-Dec ∆%: -2.2 Blog 2/15/15

Links to blog comments in Table UK:

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

2/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html

12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

10/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/financial-oscillations-world-inflation.html

10/5/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/world-financial-turbulence-twenty-seven.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

7/27/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

5/4/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html

4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html

3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html

2/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

12/22/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html

12/1/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/exit-risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html

10/27/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/twenty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html

9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html

7/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html

5/26/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

4/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_28.html

03/31/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015.