CMP Associates Regulation Blog: “Impatience” with Monetary Policy of Exchange Rates and Valuations of Financial Assets, United States Industrial Production, Unresolved US Balance of Payments Deficits and Fiscal Imbalance, United States Services, United States Producer Prices, World Cyclical Slow Growth and Global Recession Risk: Part V

“Impatience” with Monetary Policy of Exchange Rates and Valuations of Financial Assets, United States Industrial Production, Unresolved US Balance of Payments Deficits and Fiscal Imbalance, United States Services, United States Producer Prices, World Cyclical Slow Growth and Global Recession Risk

Carlos M. Pelaez

I United States Industrial Production

IIA Unresolved US Balance of Payments Deficits and Fiscal Imbalance Threatening Risk Premium on Treasury Securities

IIB United States Services

IIC United States Producer Prices

III World Financial Turbulence

IIIA Financial Risks

IIIE Appendix Euro Zone Survival Risk

IIIF Appendix on Sovereign Bond Valuation

IV Global Inflation

V World Economic Slowdown

VA United States

VB Japan

VC China

VD Euro Area

VE Germany

VF France

VG Italy

VH United Kingdom

VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets

VII Economic Indicators

VIII Interest Rates

IX Conclusion

References

Appendixes

Appendix I The Great Inflation

IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies

IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact

IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort

IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis

IIIGA Monetary Policy with Deficit Financing of Economic Growth

IIIGB Adjustment during the Debt Crisis of the 1980s

VC China. China estimates an index of nonmanufacturing purchasing managers based on a sample of 1200 nonmanufacturing enterprises across the country (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Table CIPMNM provides this index and components. The total index increased from 55.7 in Jan 2011 to 58.0 in Mar 2012, decreasing to 53.9 in Aug 2013. The index decreased from 56.0 in Nov 2013 to 54.6 in Dec 2013, easing to 53.4 in Jan 2014. The index moved to 53.9 in Feb 2015. The index of new orders increased from 52.2 in Jan 2012 to 54.3 in Dec 2012 but fell to 50.1 in May 2013, barely above the neutral frontier of 50.0. The index of new orders stabilized at 51.0 in Nov-Dec 2013, easing to 50.9 in Jan 2014. The index of new orders moved to 51.2 in Feb 2015.

Table CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted

	Total Index	New Orders	Interm. Input Prices	Subs Prices	Exp
Feb 2015	53.9	51.2	52.5	51.2	58.7
Jan	53.7	50.2	47.6	46.9	59.6
Dec 2014	54.1	50.5	50.1	47.3	59.5
Nov	53.9	50.1	50.6	47.7	59.7
Oct	53.8	51.0	52.0	48.8	59.9
Sep	54.0	49.5	49.8	47.3	60.9
Aug	54.4	50.0	52.2	48.3	61.2
Jul	54.2	50.7	53.4	49.5	61.5
Jun	55.0	50.7	56.0	50.8	60.4
May	55.5	52.7	54.5	49.0	60.7
Apr	54.8	50.8	52.4	49.4	61.5
Mar	54.5	50.8	52.8	49.5	61.5
Feb	55.0	51.4	52.1	49.0	59.9
Jan	53.4	50.9	54.5	50.1	58.1
Dec 2013	54.6	51.0	56.9	52.0	58.7
Nov	56.0	51.0	54.8	49.5	61.3
Oct	56.3	51.6	56.1	51.4	60.5
Sep	55.4	53.4	56.7	50.6	60.1
Aug	53.9	50.9	57.1	51.2	62.9
Jul	54.1	50.3	58.2	52.4	63.9
Jun	53.9	50.3	55.0	50.6	61.8
May	54.3	50.1	54.4	50.7	62.9
Apr	54.5	50.9	51.1	47.6	62.5
Mar	55.6	52.0	55.3	50.0	62.4
Feb	54.5	51.8	56.2	51.1	62.7
Jan	56.2	53.7	58.2	50.9	61.4
Dec 2012	56.1	54.3	53.8	50.0	64.6
Nov	55.6	53.2	52.5	48.4	64.6
Oct	55.5	51.6	58.1	50.5	63.4
Sep	53.7	51.8	57.5	51.3	60.9
Aug	56.3	52.7	57.6	51.2	63.2
Jul	55.6	53.2	49.7	48.7	63.9
Jun	56.7	53.7	52.1	48.6	65.5
May	55.2	52.5	53.6	48.5	65.4
Apr	56.1	52.7	57.9	50.3	66.1
Mar	58.0	53.5	60.2	52.0	66.6
Feb	57.3	52.7	59.0	51.2	63.8
Jan	55.7	52.2	58.2	51.1	65.3

Notes: Interm.: Intermediate; Subs: Subscription; Exp: Business Expectations

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart CIPMNM provides China’s nonmanufacturing purchasing managers’ index. The index fell from 56.0 in Oct 2013 to 53.9 in Feb 2015.

Chart CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Table CIPMMFG provides the index of purchasing managers of manufacturing seasonally adjusted of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The general index (IPM) rose from 50.5 in Jan 2012 to 53.3 in Apr 2012, falling to 49.2 in Aug 2012, rebounding to 50.6 in Dec 2012. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013, barely above the neutral frontier at 50.0, recovering to 51.4 in Nov 2013 but falling to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.5 in Jan 2014, 50.1 in Dec 2014 and 49.9 in Feb 2015. The index of new orders fell from 54.5 in Apr 2012 to 51.2 in Dec 2012. The index of new orders fell from 52.3 in Nov 2013 to 52.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.9 in Jan 2014 and moved to 50.4 in Dec 2014. The index moved to 50.4 in Feb 2015.

Table CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted

	IPM	PI	NOI	INV	EMP	SDEL
2015
Feb	49.9	51.4	50.4	48.2	47.8	49.9
Jan	49.8	51.7	50.2	47.3	47.9	50.2
2014
Dec	50.1	52.2	50.4	47.5	48.1	49.9
Nov	50.3	52.5	50.9	47.7	48.2	50.3
Oct	50.8	53.1	51.6	48.4	48.4	50.1
Sep	51.1	53.6	52.2	48.8	48.2	50.1
Aug	51.1	53.2	52.5	48.6	48.2	50.0
Jul	51.7	54.2	53.6	49.0	48.3	50.2
Jun	51.0	53.0	52.8	48.0	48.6	50.5
May	50.8	52.8	52.3	48.0	48.2	50.3
Apr	50.4	52.5	51.2	48.1	48.3	50.1
Mar	50.3	52.7	50.6	47.8	48.3	49.8
Feb	50.2	52.6	50.5	47.4	48.0	49.9
Jan	50.5	53.0	50.9	47.8	48.2	49.8
Dec 2013	51.0	53.9	52.0	47.6	48.7	50.5
Nov	51.4	54.5	52.3	47.8	49.6	50.6
Oct	51.4	54.4	52.5	48.6	49.2	50.8
Sep	51.1	52.9	52.8	48.5	49.1	50.8
Aug	51.0	52.6	52.4	48.0	49.3	50.4
Jul	50.3	52.4	50.6	47.6	49.1	50.1
Jun	50.1	52.0	50.4	47.4	48.7	50.3
May	50.8	53.3	51.8	47.6	48.8	50.8
Apr	50.6	52.6	51.7	47.5	49.0	50.8
Mar	50.9	52.7	52.3	47.5	49.8	51.1
Feb	50.1	51.2	50.1	49.5	47.6	48.3
Jan	50.4	51.3	51.6	50.1	47.8	50.0
Dec 2012	50.6	52.0	51.2	47.3	49.0	48.8
Nov	50.6	52.5	51.2	47.9	48.7	49.9
Oct	50.2	52.1	50.4	47.3	49.2	50.1
Sep	49.8	51.3	49.8	47.0	48.9	49.5
Aug	49.2	50.9	48.7	45.1	49.1	50.0
Jul	50.1	51.8	49.0	48.5	49.5	49.0
Jun	50.2	52.0	49.2	48.2	49.7	49.1
May	50.4	52.9	49.8	45.1	50.5	49.0
Apr	53.3	57.2	54.5	48.5	51.0	49.6
Mar	53.1	55.2	55.1	49.5	51.0	48.9
Feb	51.0	53.8	51.0	48.8	49.5	50.3
Jan	50.5	53.6	50.4	49.7	47.1	49.7

IPM: Index of Purchasing Managers; PI: Production Index; NOI: New Orders Index; EMP: Employed Person Index; SDEL: Supplier Delivery Time Index

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

China estimates the manufacturing index of purchasing managers on the basis of a sample of 820 enterprises (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Chart CIPMMFG provides the manufacturing index of purchasing managers. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013. The index decreased from 51.4 in Nov 2013 to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index moved to 49.9 in Feb 2015.

Chart CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Cumulative growth of China’s GDP in IVQ2014 relative to the same period in 2013 was 7.4 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDP. Secondary industry accounts for 42.6 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2014. In cumulative IVQ2014, industry accounts for 35.8 percent of GDP and construction for 7.0 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 48.2 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2014 and primary industry for 9.2 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is shifting to lower growth rates with improvement in living standards. The bottom block of Table VC-GDP provides quarter-on-quarter growth rates of GDP and their annual equivalent. China’s GDP growth decelerated significantly from annual equivalent 10.4 percent in IIQ2011 to 7.4 percent in IVQ2011 and 5.7 percent in IQ2012, rebounding to 8.7 percent in IIQ2012, 8.2 percent in IIIQ2012 and 7.8 percent in IVQ2012. Annual equivalent growth in IQ2013 fell to 7.0 percent and to 7.4 percent in IIQ2013, rebounding to 9.5 percent in IIIQ2013. Annual equivalent growth was 7.4 percent in IVQ2013, declining to 6.6 percent in IQ2014 and increasing to 7.8 percent in IIQ2014. Annual equivalent growth slowed to 7.8 percent in IIIQ2014 and 6.1 percent in IVQ2014.

Table VC-GDP, China, Quarterly Growth of GDP, Current CNY 100 Million and Inflation Adjusted ∆%

Cumulative GDP IVQ2014	Value Current CNY Billion	2014 Year-on-Year Constant Prices ∆%
GDP	63,646.3	7.4
Primary Industry	5833.2	4.1
Farming	6015.1	4.2
Secondary Industry	27,139.2	7.3
Industry	22,799.1	7.0
Construction	4472.5	8.9
Tertiary Industry	30,673.9	8.1
Transport, Storage, Post	2875.0	7.0
Wholesale, Retail Trades	6221.6	9.5
Accommodation and Restaurants	1119.9	6.2
Finance	4695.4	10.2
Real Estate	3816.7	2.3
Other	11631.1	8.8
Growth in Quarter Relative to Prior Quarter	∆% on Prior Quarter	∆% Annual Equivalent
2014
IVQ2014	1.5	6.1
IIIQ2014	1.9	7.8
IIQ2014	1.9	7.8
IQ2014	1.6	6.6
2013
IVQ2013	1.8	7.4
IIIQ2013	2.3	9.5
IIQ2013	1.8	7.4
IQ2013	1.7	7.0
2012
IVQ2012	1.9	7.8
IIIQ2012	2.0	8.2
IIQ2012	2.1	8.7
IQ2012	1.4	5.7
2011
IVQ2011	1.8	7.4
IIIQ2011	2.2	9.1
IIQ2011	2.5	10.4
IQ2011	2.3	9.5

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Growth of China’s GDP in IVQ2014 relative to the same period in 2013 was 7.3 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDPA. Secondary industry accounts for 42.6 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2014. In cumulative IVQ2014, industry accounts for 35.8 percent of GDP and construction for 7.0 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 48.2 percent of cumulative GDP in IVQ2014 and primary industry for 9.2 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is changing to lower growth rates while improving living standards. GDP growth decelerated from 12.1 percent in IQ2010 and 11.2 percent in IIQ2010 to 7.8 percent in IQ2013, 7.5 percent in IIQ2013 and 7.9 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP grew 7.6 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to IIIQ2013, which is equivalent to 7.4 percent per year. GDP grew 7.4 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.6 percent in IQ2014 that is equivalent to 6.6 percent per year. GP grew 7.5 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.9 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is equivalent 7.8 percent. In IIIQ2014, GDP grew 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier and 1.9 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is 7.8 percent in annual equivalent. GDP grew 1.5 percent in IVQ2014, which is 6.1 percent in annual equivalent and 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier.

Table VC-GDPA, China, Growth Rate of GDP, ∆% Relative to a Year Earlier and ∆% Relative to Prior Quarter

	IQ 2013	IIQ 2013	IIIQ 2013	IVQ 2013	IQ 2014	IIQ 2014	IIIQ 2014	IVQ 2014
GDP	7.8	7.5	7.9	7.6	7.4	7.5	7.3	7.3
Primary Industry	3.4	3.0	3.4	4.0	3.5	3.9	4.2	4.1
Secondary Industry	7.8	7.6	7.8	7.8	7.3	7.4	7.4	7.3
Tertiary Industry	8.3	8.3	8.4	8.3	7.1	8.0	7.9	8.1
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.7	1.8	2.3	1.8	1.6	1.9	1.9	1.5
	IQ 2011	IIQ 2011	IIIQ 2011	IVQ 2011	IQ 2012	IIQ 2012	IIIQ 2012	IVQ 2012
GDP	9.7	9.5	9.1	8.9	8.1	7.6	7.4	7.9
Primary Industry	3.5	3.2	3.8	4.5	3.8	4.3	4.2	4.5
Secondary Industry	11.1	11.0	10.8	10.6	9.1	8.3	8.1	8.1
Tertiary Industry	9.1	9.2	9.0	8.9	7.5	7.7	7.9	8.1
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	2.3	2.5	2.2	1.8	1.4	2.1	2.0	1.9
	IQ 2010	IIQ 2010	IIIQ 2010	IVQ 2010
GDP	12.1	11.2	10.7	12.1
Primary Industry	3.8	3.6	4.0	3.8
Secondary Industry	14.5	13.3	12.6	14.5
Tertiary Industry	10.5	9.9	9.7	10.5

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart VC-GDP of the National Bureau of Statistics of China provides annual value and growth rates of GDP. China’s GDP growth in 2013 is still high at 7.7 percent but at the lowest rhythm in five years.

Chart VC-GDP, China, Gross Domestic Product, Million Yuan and ∆%, 2009-2013

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart VC-FXR provides China’s foreign exchange reserves. FX reserves grew from $2399.2 billion in 2009 to $3821.3 billion in 2013 driven by high growth of China’s trade surplus.

Chart VC-FXR, China, Foreign Exchange Reserves, 2009-2013

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Chart VC-Trade provides China’s imports and exports. Exports exceeded imports with resulting large trade balance surpluses that increased foreign exchange reserves.

Chart VC-Trade, China, Imports and Exports of Goods, 2009-2013, $100 Million US Dollars

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) compiled by Markit (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/a7d8d6168eec42029dd64eb08292a5ee) is improving. The overall Flash HSBC China Manufacturing PMI^™ increased from 49.7 in Jan to 50.1 in Feb, while the Flash HSBC China Manufacturing Output Index increased from 50.3 in Jan to 50.8 in Feb, indicating moderate growth. Exports orders indicate contraction. Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds need for monetary/fiscal stimulus supporting growth (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/a7d8d6168eec42029dd64eb08292a5ee). The HSBC China Services PMI^™, compiled by Markit, shows the HSBC Composite Output, combining manufacturing and services, increasing from 51.0 in Jan to 51.8 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/bec13309543745349f9bb6a462d26c14). Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds that increase of new orders suggests future growth (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/bec13309543745349f9bb6a462d26c14). The HSBC China Services Business Activity index increased from 51.8 in Jan to 52.0 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/bec13309543745349f9bb6a462d26c14). Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds that the services PMI shows sustained activity at modest pace (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/bec13309543745349f9bb6a462d26c14). The HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™), compiled by Markit, increased to 50.7 in Feb from 49.7 in Jan, indicating moderate improvement in manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/bc53a64bf226406d94fcc16284db2bbe). New export orders declined modestly. Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds improvement in manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/bc53a64bf226406d94fcc16284db2bbe). Table CNY provides the country data table for China.

Table CNY, China, Economic Indicators

Price Indexes for Industry	Feb 12-month ∆%: minus 4.8 Feb month ∆%: -0.7 Blog 3/15/15
Consumer Price Index	Feb 12-month ∆%: 1.4 Feb month ∆%: 1.2 Blog 3/15/15
Value Added of Industry	Feb month ∆%: 0.45 Jan-Feb 2015/Jan-Feb 2014 ∆%: 6.8 Blog 3/15/15
GDP Growth Rate	Year IVQ2014 ∆%: 7.3 First Four Quarters 2014 ∆%: 7.4 Quarter IIIQ2014 AE ∆%: 6.1 Blog 1/25/15
Investment in Fixed Assets	Total Jan-Feb 2015 ∆%: 13.9 Real estate development: 10.4 Blog 3/15/15
Retail Sales	Feb month ∆%: 1.01 Jan-Feb 12 month ∆%: NA Jan-Feb ∆%: 0.03 Blog 3/15/15
Trade Balance	Feb balance $60.62 billion Exports 12M ∆% 48.3 Imports 12M ∆% -20.5 Cumulative Feb 2015: $120.5 billion Blog 3/15/15

Links to blog comments in Table CNY:

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

1/25/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/01/competitive-currency-conflicts-world.html

VD Euro Area. Table VD-EUR provides yearly growth rates of the combined GDP of the members of the European Monetary Union (EMU) or euro area since 1999. Growth was very strong at 3.3 percent in 2006 and 3.1 percent in 2007. The global recession had strong impact with growth of only 0.5 percent in 2008 and decline of 4.5 percent in 2009. Recovery was at lower growth rates of 2.0 percent in 2010 and 1.6 percent in 2011. EUROSTAT estimates growth of GDP of the euro area of minus 0.8 percent in 2012 and minus 0.4 percent in 2013 but 0.9 percent in 2014.

Table VD-EUR, Euro Area, Yearly Percentage Change of Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, Unemployment and GDP ∆%

Year	HICP ∆%	Unemployment %	GDP ∆%
1999	1.2	9.7	2.9
2000	2.2	8.8	3.8
2001	2.4	8.3	2.1
2002	2.3	8.6	0.9
2003	2.1	9.1	0.7
2004	2.2	9.3	2.2
2005	2.2	9.1	1.7
2006	2.2	8.4	3.3
2007	2.2	7.5	3.1
2008	3.3	7.6	0.5
2009	0.3	9.6	-4.5
2010	1.6	10.2	2.0
2011	2.7	10.2	1.6
2012	2.5	11.4	-0.8
2013	1.3	12.0	-0.4
2014	0.4	11.6	0.9

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

The GDP of the euro area in 2013 in current US dollars in the dataset of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is $12,753.7 billion or 17.1 percent of world GDP of $74,699.3 billion (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/weodata/weoselgr.aspx). The sum of the GDP of France $2807.3 billion with the GDP of Germany of $3635.9 billion, Italy of $2071.9 billion and Spain $1358.7 billion is $9873.8 billion or 77.4 percent of total euro area GDP and 13.2 percent of World GDP. The four largest economies account for slightly more than three quarters of economic activity of the euro area. Table VD-EUR1 is constructed with the dataset of EUROSTAT, providing growth rates of the euro area as a whole and of the largest four economies of Germany, France, Italy and Spain annually from 1996 to 2014. The impact of the global recession on the overall euro area economy and on the four largest economies was quite strong. There was sharp contraction in 2009 and growth rates have not rebounded to earlier growth with exception of Germany in 2010 and 2011.

Table VD-EUR1, Euro Area, Real GDP Growth Rate, ∆%

	Euro Area	Germany	France	Italy	Spain
2014	0.9	1.6	0.4	-0.4	1.4
2013	-0.4	0.1	0.3	-1.7	-1.2
2012	-0.8	0.4	0.3	-2.8	-2.1
2011	1.6	3.6	2.1	0.6	-0.6
2010	2.0	4.1	2.0	1.7	0.0
2009	-4.5	-5.6	-2.9	-5.5	-3.6
2008	0.5	1.1	0.2	-1.0	1.1
2007	3.1	3.3	2.4	1.5	3.8
2006	3.3	3.7	2.4	2.0	4.2
2005	1.7	0.7	1.6	0.9	3.7
2004	2.2	1.2	2.8	1.6	3.2
2003	0.7	-0.7	0.8	0.2	3.2
2002	0.9	0.0	1.1	0.3	2.9
2001	2.1	1.7	2.0	1.8	4.0
2000	3.8	3.0	3.9	3.7	5.3
1999	2.9	2.0	3.4	1.6	4.5
1998	2.9	2.0	3.6	1.4	4.3
1997	2.6	1.8	2.3	1.8	3.7
1996	1.6	0.8	1.4	1.3	2.7

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

The Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index of the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI^®, combining activity in manufacturing and services, increased from 52.6 in Jan to 53.5 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/be007dfe9a364164b10392d0572ffcf2). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds that the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI index suggests GDP growth at around 0.3 percent in IQ2015 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/be007dfe9a364164b10392d0572ffcf2). The Markit Eurozone PMI^® Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing activity with close association with GDP increased from 52.6 in Jan to 53.3 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e1972f0591de4394aa4e977fcad4d0a1). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds slowing growth of GDP at around 0.3 percent in IQ2015 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e1972f0591de4394aa4e977fcad4d0a1). The Markit Eurozone Services Business Activity Index increased from 52.7 in Jan to 53.7 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e1972f0591de4394aa4e977fcad4d0a1). The Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI^® did not change from 51.0 in Jan to 51.0 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/88acf5800873414f90a017221726b9be). New export orders increased. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds modest improvement of industrial growth in the euro area (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/88acf5800873414f90a017221726b9be). Table EUR provides the data table for the euro area.

Table EUR, Euro Area Economic Indicators

GDP	IVQ2014 ∆% 0.3; IVQ2014/IVQ2013 ∆% 0.9 Blog 3/15/15
Unemployment	Jan 2015: 11.4 % unemployment rate; Jan 2015: 18.059 million unemployed Blog 3/8/15
HICP	Feb month ∆%: 0.6 12 months Feb ∆%: -0.3 Blog 3/22/15
Producer Prices	Euro Zone industrial producer prices Jan ∆%: -0.9 Jan 12-month ∆%: -3.4 Blog 3/8/15
Industrial Production	Dec month ∆%: 0.0; Dec 12 months ∆%: -0.2 Blog 2/15/15
Retail Sales	Jan month ∆%: 1.1 Jan 12 months ∆%: 3.7 Blog 3/15/15
Confidence and Economic Sentiment Indicator	Sentiment 102.1 Feb 2015 Consumer minus 6.7 Feb 2015 Blog 3/1/15
Trade	Jan-Dec 2014/Jan-Dec 2013 Exports ∆%: 2.2 Imports ∆%: 0.1 Jan 2015 12-month Exports ∆% -0.4 Imports ∆% minus 5.6 Blog 3/22/15

Links to blog comments in Table EUR:

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

3/8/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-competitive-devaluation-rules.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

Growth of euro zone trade continues to be relatively resilient as shown in Table VD-1 but with deceleration at the margin. Exports grew 2.2 percent and imports increased 0.1 percent in Jan-Dec 2014 relative to Jan-Dec 2013. The 12-month rate of growth of exports was minus 0.4 percent in Jan 2015 while imports decreased 5.6 percent. In Nov 2014, exports increased 0.9 percent in 12 months and imports decreased 2.2 percent. At the margin, rates of growth of trade are declining in part because of moderation of commodity prices.

Table VD-1, Euro Zone, Exports, Imports and Trade Balance, Billions of Euros and Percent, NSA

	Exports	Imports
Jan 2015	148.2	140.3
Jan- 2014	148.8	148.7
∆%	-0.4	-5.6
Jan-Dec 2014	1943.5	1750.6
Jan-Dec 2013	1900.9	1749.0
∆%	2.2	0.1
Nov 2014	163.2	142.0
Nov 2013	161.7	145.2
∆%	0.9	-2.2
Trade Balance	Jan-Dec 2014	Jan-Dec 2013
€ Billions	192.9	151.9

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

The structure of trade of the European Union in Jan 2015 is provided in Table VD-2. Manufactured exports increased 3.0 percent in Jan 2015 relative to Jan 2014 while imports increased 9.4 percent.

Table VD-2, European Union, Structure of Exports, Imports and Trade Balance, € Billions, NSA, ∆%

	Primary	Manufactured	Other	Total
Exports
Jan 2015 € B	17.8	104.3	5.0	127.1
Jan 2014 € B	21.0	101.3	7.8	130.2
∆%	-15.2	3.0	-35.9	-2.4
Imports
Jan 20145€ B	41.2	92.2	4.3	137.7
Jan 2014 € B	57.1	84.3	3.0	144.4
∆%	-27.8	9.4	43.3	-4.6
Trade Balance € B
Jan 2015	-23.4	12.1	0.7	-10.6
Jan 2014	-36.1	17.0	4.8	-14.3

Note: there are minor rounding errors

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

VE Germany. Table VE-DE provides yearly growth rates of the German economy from 1971 to 2014, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked. Germany’s GDP fell 5.6 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.1 percent in 2008. Recovery has been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.1 percent in 2010, 3.6 percent in 2011 and 0.4 percent in 2012. Growth decelerated to 0.1 percent in 2013, increasing to 1.6 percent in 2014.

The Federal Statistical Agency of Germany analyzes the fall and recovery of the German economy (http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Content/Statistics/VolkswirtschaftlicheGesamtrechnungen/Inlandsprodukt/Aktuell,templateId=renderPrint.psml):

“The German economy again grew strongly in 2011. The price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.0% compared with the previous year. Accordingly, the catching-up process of the German economy continued during the second year after the economic crisis. In the course of 2011, the price-adjusted GDP again exceeded its pre-crisis level. The economic recovery occurred mainly in the first half of 2011. In 2009, Germany experienced the most serious post-war recession, when GDP suffered a historic decline of 5.1%. The year 2010 was characterised by a rapid economic recovery (+3.7%).”

Table VE-DE, Germany, GDP ∆% on Prior Year

	Price Adjusted Chain-Linked	Price- and Calendar-Adjusted Chain Linked
Average ∆% 1991-2014	1.3
Average ∆% 1991-1999	1.5
Average ∆% 2000-2007	1.4
Average ∆% 2003-2007	2.2
Average ∆% 2007-2014	0.7
Average ∆% 2009-2014	1.9
2014	1.6	1.6
2013	0.1	0.2
2012	0.4	0.6
2011	3.6	3.7
2010	4.1	3.9
2009	-5.6	-5.6
2008	1.1	0.8
2007	3.3	3.4
2006	3.7	3.9
2005	0.7	0.9
2004	1.2	0.7
2003	-0.7	-0.7
2002	0.0	0.0
2001	1.7	1.8
2000	3.0	3.2
1999	2.0	1.9
1998	2.0	1.7
1997	1.8	1.9
1996	0.8	0.8
1995	1.7	1.8
1994	2.5	2.5
1993	-1.0	-1.0
1992	1.9	1.5
1991	5.1	5.2
1990	5.3	5.5
1989	3.9	4.0
1988	3.7	3.4
1987	1.4	1.3
1986	2.3	2.3
1985	2.3	2.3
1984	2.8	2.9
1983	1.6	1.5
1982	-0.4	-0.5
1981	0.5	0.6
1980	1.4	1.3
1979	4.2	4.3
1978	3.0	3.1
1977	3.3	3.5
1976	4.9	4.5
1975	-0.9	-0.9
1974	0.9	1.0
1973	4.8	5.0
1972	4.3	4.3
1971	3.1	3.0
1970	NA	NA

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/NationalAccounts.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/DomesticProduct/CurrentRevision.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Methods/NationalAccountRevision/Revision2014_BackgroundPaper.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/02/PE14_048_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/08/PE13_278_811.html https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/11/PE13_381_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/01/PE14_016_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/DE/PresseService/Presse/Pressekonferenzen/2014/BIP2013/Pressebroschuere_BIP2013.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/05/PE14_167_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/09/PE14_306_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/11/PE14_401_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_048_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_61_811.html

The Flash Germany Composite Output Index of the Markit Flash Germany PMI^®, combining manufacturing and services, increased from 53.5 in Jan to 54.3 in Feb. The index of manufacturing output reached 52.0 in Feb, decreasing from 52.3 in Jan, while the index of services increased to 55.5 in Feb from 54.0 in Jan. The overall Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI^® did not change from 50.9 in Jan to 50.9 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/54a10c0e6ce14dfbb978cdc2ae5b1d92). New orders in manufacturing expanded. Oliver Kolodseike, Economist at Markit, finds improving GDP growth (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/54a10c0e6ce14dfbb978cdc2ae5b1d92). The Markit Germany Composite Output Index of the Markit Germany Services PMI^®, combining manufacturing and services with close association with Germany’s GDP, increased from 53.5 in Jan to 53.8 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/2b9e2def63d54291b499323d045c1e8d). Oliver Kolodseike, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds improvement in 2015 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/2b9e2def63d54291b499323d045c1e8d). The Germany Services Business Activity Index increased from 54.0 in Jan to 54.7 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/2b9e2def63d54291b499323d045c1e8d). The Markit/BME Germany Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®), showing close association with Germany’s manufacturing conditions, increased from 50.9 in Jan to 51.1 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/00764b709eef44c1a5905c0f98eac492). New export orders increased. Oliver Kolodseike, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds improvement of manufacturing still at a low level (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/00764b709eef44c1a5905c0f98eac492).Table DE provides the country data table for Germany.

Table DE, Germany, Economic Indicators

GDP	IVQ2014 0.7 ∆%; IV/Q2014/IVQ2013 ∆% 1.6 2014/2013: 1.6% GDP ∆% 1970-2014 Blog 8/26/12 5/27/12 11/25/12 2/24/13 5/19/13 5/26/13 8/18/13 8/25/13 11/17/13 11/24/13 1/26/14 2/16/14 3/2/14 5/18/14 5/25/14 8/17/14 9/7/14 11/16/14 11/30/14 2/15/15 3/1/15
Consumer Price Index	Feb month NSA ∆%: 0.9 Feb 12-month NSA ∆%: 0.1 Blog 3/15/15
Producer Price Index	Feb month ∆%: 0.1 NSA, 0.0 CSA 12-month NSA ∆%: -2.1 Blog 3/22/15
Industrial Production	MFG Jan month CSA ∆%: 0.0 12-month NSA: -2.5 Blog 3/15/15
Machine Orders	MFG Jan month ∆%: -3.9 Jan 12-month ∆%: -3.0 Blog 3/15/15
Retail Sales	Jan Month ∆% 2.9 12-Month ∆% 5.3 Blog 3/8/15
Employment Report	Unemployment Rate SA Jan 4.7% Blog 3/1/15
Trade Balance	Exports Jan 12-month NSA ∆%: -0.6 Imports Jan 12 months NSA ∆%: -2.3 Exports Jan month CSA ∆%: minus 2.1; Imports Jan month CSA minus 0.3 Blog 3/15/15

Links to blog comments in Table DE:

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

3/8/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-competitive-devaluation-rules.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

9/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/competitive-monetary-policy-and.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

1/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/01/capital-flows-exchange-rates-and.html

11/24/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html

8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

VF France. Table VF-FR provides growth rates of GDP of France with the estimates of Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE). The long-term rate of GDP growth of France from IVQ1949 to IVQ2014 is quite high at 3.2 percent. France’s growth rates were quite high in the four decades of the 1950s, 1960, 1970s and 1980s with an average growth rate of 4.0 percent compounding the average rates in the decades and discounting to one decade. The growth impulse diminished with 2.0 percent in the 1990s and 1.8 percent from 2000 to 2007. The average growth rate from 2000 to 2014, using fourth quarter data, is 1.0 percent because of the sharp impact of the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. Cobet and Wilson (2002) provide estimates of output per hour and unit labor costs in national currency and US dollars for the US, Japan and Germany from 1950 to 2000 (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 137-44). The average yearly rate of productivity change from 1950 to 2000 was 2.9 percent in the US, 6.3 percent for Japan and 4.7 percent for Germany while unit labor costs in USD increased at 2.6 percent in the US, 4.7 percent in Japan and 4.3 percent in Germany. From 1995 to 2000, output per hour increased at the average yearly rate of 4.6 percent in the US, 3.9 percent in Japan and 2.6 percent in Germany while unit labor costs in US fell at minus 0.7 percent in the US, 4.3 percent in Japan and 7.5 percent in Germany. There was increase in productivity growth in the G7 in Japan and France in the second half of the 1990s but significantly lower than the acceleration of 1.3 percentage points per year in the US. Lucas (2011May) compares growth of the G7 economies (US, UK, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Canada) and Spain, finding that catch-up growth with earlier rates for the US and UK stalled in the 1970s.

Table VF-FR, France, Average Growth Rates of GDP Fourth Quarter, 1949-2014

Period	Average ∆%
1949-2014	3.2
2007-2014	0.3
2000-2014	1.0
2000-2013	1.1
2000-2007	1.8
1990-1999	2.0
1980-1989	2.6
1970-1979	3.7
1960-1969	5.7
1950-1959	4.2

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=26&date=20150213

The Markit Flash France Composite Output Index increased from 49.3 in Jan to 52.2 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b6bc1f701e814e5fab60f5e56429f5e4). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds possible improvement in IQ2015 GDP (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b6bc1f701e814e5fab60f5e56429f5e4). The Markit France Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing with close association with French GDP, increased from 49.3 in Jan to 52.2 in Feb, indicating strong improvement (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/aa544adb5bb042b6999fbd0d92bf7a2f). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the France Services PMI^®, finds strengthening growth of services (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/aa544adb5bb042b6999fbd0d92bf7a2f). The Markit France Services Activity index increased from 49.4 in Jan to 53.4 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/aa544adb5bb042b6999fbd0d92bf7a2f). The Markit France Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^® decreased to 47.6 in Feb from 49.2 in Jan (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e784d5703ea041639d874f4aa5610ac1). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the France Manufacturing PMI^®, finds deterioration in manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e784d5703ea041639d874f4aa5610ac1). Table FR provides the country data table for France.

Table FR, France, Economic Indicators

CPI	Feb month ∆% 0.7 12 months ∆%: -0.3 3/15/15
PPI	Jan month ∆%: -0.9 Jan 12 months ∆%: -3.3 Blog 3/1/15
GDP Growth	IVQ2014/IIIQ2014 ∆%:0.1 IVQ2014/IVQ2013 ∆%: 0.2 Blog 3/31/13 5/19/12 6/30/13 9/29/13 11/17/13 12/29/13 2/16/14 4/6/14 5/18/14 6/29/14 8/17/14 9/28/14 11/16/14 12/28/14 2/15/15
Industrial Production	Jan ∆%: Manufacturing -0.1 12-Month ∆%: Manufacturing -0.5 Blog 3/22/15
Consumer Spending	Manufactured Goods Jan ∆%: 0.2 Jan 12-Month Manufactured Goods ∆%: 1.3 Blog 3/8/15
Employment	Unemployment Rate: IVQ2014 10.0% Blog 3/15/15
Trade Balance	Jan Exports ∆%: month -2.5, 12 months 1.3 Jan Imports ∆%: month -1.3, 12 months -3.1 Blog 3/15/15
Confidence Indicators	Historical average 100 Feb Mfg Business Climate 99.0 Blog 3/1/15

Links to blog comments in Table FR:

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

3/8/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-competitive-devaluation-rules.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

9/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

12/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/collapse-of-united-states-dynamism-of.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

6/30/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/tapering-quantitative-easing-policy-and.html

5/19/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/word-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

Table VF-4 provides longer historical perspective of manufacturing in France. Output of manufacturing decreased 0.1 percent in Jan 2015 and decreased 0.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2015. Manufacturing in France fell 14.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2008 and 4.2 percent in Dec 2009. Manufacturing recovered with growth of 6.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2010. Manufacturing fell 0.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2011 and 3.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2012. Manufacturing increased 0.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013 and 0.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2014.

Table VF-1, France, Manufacturing, Month and 12-Month ∆%

	Month ∆%	12-Month ∆%
Jan 2015	-0.1	-0.5
Dec 2014	1.1	0.0
Nov	-0.5	-1.5
Oct	-0.2	-0.6
Sep	0.4	0.1
Aug	-0.4	-0.5
Jul	0.2	0.5
Jun	1.6	0.0
May	-2.6	-2.9
Apr	0.1	-0.2
Mar	-0.4	1.9
Feb	0.3	1.5
Jan	0.4	2.1
Dec 2013	-0.4	0.6
Nov	0.4	1.7
Oct	0.5	0.5
Sep	-0.2	-1.1
Aug	0.6	-3.1
Jul	-0.3	-2.1
Jun	-1.3	-0.3
May	0.1	0.2
Apr	2.2	0.1
Mar	-0.8	-3.8
Feb	0.9	-1.3
Jan	-1.1	-4.3
Dec 2012	0.7	-3.2
Nov	-0.8	-5.9
Oct	-1.1	-3.2
Sep	-2.2	-2.3
Aug	1.7	-0.8
Jul	1.5	-2.7
Jun	-0.8	-3.5
May	0.0	-5.1
Apr	-1.8	-3.3
Mar	1.8	-2.3
Feb	-2.2	-5.3
Jan	0.0	-2.8
Dec 2011	-2.1	-0.6
Nov	2.1	2.1
Oct	-0.2	2.2
Sep	-0.7	1.5
Aug	-0.3	3.7
Jul	0.7	3.6
Jun	-2.5	3.3
May	1.9	5.0
Apr	-0.8	4.1
Mar	-1.3	5.4
Feb	0.5	9.1
Jan	2.2	8.5
Dec 2014		0.3
Dec 2013		0.6
Dec 2012		-3.2
Dec 2011		-0.6
Dec 2010		6.1
Dec 2009		-4.2
Dec 2008		-14.0
Dec 2007		-0.7
Dec 2006		2.8
Dec 2005		0.9
Dec 2004		1.1
Dec 2003		0.4
Dec 2002		-1.0
Dec 2001		-5.3
Dec 2000		4.9

Source:

Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=10&date=20150310

Chart VF-1 of the Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques provides France’s index of manufacturing, adjusted for working days and seasonal effects, from Jan 1990 to Jan 2015. Growth was robust in the 1990s and in recovery from the 2001 recession. Manufacturing output fell sharply during the global recession followed by recovery and another trend of decline followed by increase, new decline and stability.

Chart VF-1, France, Index of Manufacturing 2010=100, Jan 1990-Jan 2015, Seasonal and Working-Day Adjusted

Source:

Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=10&date=20150310

Chart VF-2 of France’s Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques shows indices of manufacturing in France from 2010 to 2014. Manufacturing, which is CZ in Chart VF-2, fell deeply in 2008 and part of 2009. All curves of industrial indices tend to flatten recently with oscillations and declines and marginal improvement followed by renewed decline/stability in the final segment with jump in Mar-Apr 2013. Manufacturing fell in May-Jul 2013 with mild recovery in Aug 2013 and decline in Sep 2013. Manufacturing increased in Oct-Nov 2013 and fell in Dec 2013. Manufacturing rebounded in Jan-Feb 2014, decreasing in Mar 2014. Manufacturing increased in Apr 2014 and contracted in May 2014. Manufacturing expanded in Jun 2014 and contracted in Jul-Aug 2014. Manufacturing grew in Sep 2014 and contracted in Oct-Nov 2014. Manufacturing rebounded in Dec 2014 and fell in Jan 2015.

Chart VF-2, France, Industrial Production Indices 2010-2014 Legend: CZ : Manufacturing – (C1) : Manufacture of food products and beverages – (C3) : Electrical and electronic equipment; machine equipment – (C4) : Manufacture of transport equipment – (C5) : Other manufacturing

VG Italy. Table VG-IT provides percentage changes in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier of Italy’s expenditure components in chained volume measures. GDP has been declining at sharper rates from minus 1.0 percent in IVQ2011 to minus 2.7 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.6 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.0 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.4 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.8 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.1 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and decreased 0.3 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and fell 0.5 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. The aggregate demand components of consumption and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) have been declining at faster rates. The rates of decline of GDP, consumption and GFCF were somewhat milder in IIIQ2013 and IVQ2013 than in IQ2013 and the final three quarters of 2012. Consumption fell 0.4 percent in IQ2014 and GFCF fell 2.5 percent. In IIQ2014, consumption decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier and GFCF fell 3.3 percent. GDP fell 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier while consumption increased 0.2 percent and GFCF fell 4.2 percent. GDP fell 0.5 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier while consumption increased 0.3 percent and GFCF fell 3.0 percent.

Table VG-IT, Italy, GDP and Expenditure Components, Chained Volume Measures, Quarter ∆% on Same Quarter Year Earlier

	GDP	Imports	Consumption	GFCF	Exports
2014
IVQ	-0.5	2.0	0.3	-3.0	3.8
IIIQ	-0.5	1.3	0.2	-4.2	1.7
IIQ	-0.3	2.8	-0.1	-3.3	2.6
IQ	-0.1	0.4	-0.4	-2.5	3.8
2013
IVQ	-0.8	0.8	-1.2	-4.1	1.2
IIIQ	-1.4	-1.5	-2.1	-4.2	0.0
IIQ	-2.0	-3.7	-2.5	-6.4	0.2
IQ	-2.6	-4.3	-2.7	-8.4	1.5
2012
IVQ	-2.7	-7.5	-3.3	-9.6	1.7
IIIQ	-3.1	-8.2	-3.5	-10.2	3.0
IIQ	-3.1	-8.9	-3.5	-9.6	1.6
IQ	-2.3	-8.7	-3.1	-8.1	1.8
2011
IVQ	-1.0	-7.1	-2.0	-4.5	2.5
IIIQ	0.4	0.3	-0.8	-2.3	4.6
IIQ	1.4	3.8	0.3	-0.6	7.5
IQ	2.0	8.4	0.7	0.7	10.2
2010
IVQ	2.3	14.6	1.3	0.9	13.0
IIIQ	1.8	12.9	1.1	0.6	12.4
IIQ	1.9	14.2	1.0	-0.4	13.2
IQ	0.7	6.7	0.9	-3.3	6.8
2009
IVQ	-3.5	-6.3	0.2	-8.2	-9.3
IIIQ	-5.0	-12.2	-0.8	-12.6	-16.4
IIQ	-6.6	-17.9	-1.4	-13.6	-21.4
IQ	-6.9	-17.2	-1.8	-12.4	-22.8
2008
IVQ	-3.0	-8.2	-0.9	-8.3	-10.3
IIIQ	-1.9	-5.0	-0.8	-4.5	-3.9
IIQ	-0.2	-0.1	-0.3	-1.5	0.4
IQ	0.5	1.7	0.1	-1.0	2.9

GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/151830

Table VG-IT, Italy, GDP and Expenditure Components, Chained Volume Measures, Quarter ∆% on Same Quarter Year Earlier

	GDP	Imports	Consumption	GFCF	Exports
2014
IVQ	-0.5	2.0	0.3	-3.0	3.8
IIIQ	-0.5	1.3	0.2	-4.2	1.7
IIQ	-0.3	2.8	-0.1	-3.3	2.6
IQ	-0.1	0.4	-0.4	-2.5	3.8
2013
IVQ	-0.8	0.8	-1.2	-4.1	1.2
IIIQ	-1.4	-1.5	-2.1	-4.2	0.0
IIQ	-2.0	-3.7	-2.5	-6.4	0.2
IQ	-2.6	-4.3	-2.7	-8.4	1.5
2012
IVQ	-2.7	-7.5	-3.3	-9.6	1.7
IIIQ	-3.1	-8.2	-3.5	-10.2	3.0
IIQ	-3.1	-8.9	-3.5	-9.6	1.6
IQ	-2.3	-8.7	-3.1	-8.1	1.8
2011
IVQ	-1.0	-7.1	-2.0	-4.5	2.5
IIIQ	0.4	0.3	-0.8	-2.3	4.6
IIQ	1.4	3.8	0.3	-0.6	7.5
IQ	2.0	8.4	0.7	0.7	10.2
2010
IVQ	2.3	14.6	1.3	0.9	13.0
IIIQ	1.8	12.9	1.1	0.6	12.4
IIQ	1.9	14.2	1.0	-0.4	13.2
IQ	0.7	6.7	0.9	-3.3	6.8
2009
IVQ	-3.5	-6.3	0.2	-8.2	-9.3
IIIQ	-5.0	-12.2	-0.8	-12.6	-16.4
IIQ	-6.6	-17.9	-1.4	-13.6	-21.4
IQ	-6.9	-17.2	-1.8	-12.4	-22.8
2008
IVQ	-3.0	-8.2	-0.9	-8.3	-10.3
IIIQ	-1.9	-5.0	-0.8	-4.5	-3.9
IIQ	-0.2	-0.1	-0.3	-1.5	0.4
IQ	0.5	1.7	0.1	-1.0	2.9

GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/151830

The Markit/ADACI Business Activity Index decreased from 51.2 in Jan to 50.0 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b9a27bc11e08444fbd9ee7806f41ef6a). Phil Smith, Economist at Markit and author of the Italy Services PMI^®, finds weak demand in stabilizing economy (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b9a27bc11e08444fbd9ee7806f41ef6a). The Markit/ADACI Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®), increased from 49.9 in Jan to 51.9 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4ad026cef63847b2873d36705141c799). New export orders continued to increase. Phil Smith, Economist at Markit and author of the Italian Manufacturing PMI^®, finds strengthening conditions in manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4ad026cef63847b2873d36705141c799). Table IT provides the country data table for Italy.

Table IT, Italy, Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index	Feb month ∆%: 0.4 Feb 12-month ∆%: -0.1 Blog 3/15/15
Producer Price Index	Jan month ∆%: -1.6 Jan 12-month ∆%: -3.7 Blog 3/8/15
GDP Growth	IVQ2014/IIIQ2014 SA ∆%: 0.0 IVQ2014/IVQ2013 NSA ∆%: minus 0.5 Blog 3/17/13 6/16/13 8/11/13 9/15/13 11/17/13 12/15/13 2/16/14 3/16/14 5/18/14 6/15/14 8/10/14 8/31/14 10/19/14 11/16/14 12/7/14 2/15/15 3/15/15
Labor Report	Jan 2015 Participation rate 64.0% Employment ratio 55.8% Unemployment rate 12.6% Youth Unemployment 41.2% Blog 3/8/15
Industrial Production	Jan month ∆%: -0.7 12 months CA ∆%: minus 2.2 Blog 3/22/15
Retail Sales	Dec month ∆%: -0.2 Dec 12-month ∆%: 0.1 Blog 3/1/15
Business Confidence	Mfg Feb 99.1, Oct 96.3 Construction Feb 76.6, Oct 77.4 Blog 3/1/15
Trade Balance	Balance Jan SA €3917 million versus Dec €5076 Exports Jan month SA ∆%: minus 2.5; Imports month ∆%: 1.0 Exports 12 months Jan NSA ∆%: minus 3.2 Imports 12 months NSA ∆%: minus 3.2 Blog 3/22/15

Links to blog comments in Table IT:

3/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-exchange-rate-struggle-recovery.html

3/8/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/global-competitive-devaluation-rules.html

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/15/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/g20-monetary-policy-recovery-without.html

12/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/financial-risks-twenty-six-million.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

10/19/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/imf-view-squeeze-of-economic-activity.html

8/31/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitical-and-financial-risks.html

8/10/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/volatility-of-valuations-of-risk_10.html

6/15/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financialgeopolitical-risks-recovery.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

8/11/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/recovery-without-hiring-loss-of-full.html

6/16/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/recovery-without-hiring-seven-million.html

3/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

Industrial production in Italy decreased 0.7 percent in Jan 2015 and decreased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier calendar adjusted. Industrial production increased 0.4 percent in Dec 2014 and 0.1 percent in 12 months. Italy’s industrial production increased 0.3 percent in Nov 2014 seasonally adjusted and decreased 1.9 percent in 12 months calendar adjusted, as shown in Table VG-1. Industrial production changed 0.0 percent in Oct 2014 and fell 3.0 percent in 12 months calendar adjusted. Industrial production fell 0.9 percent in Sep 2014 and decreased 2.7 percent in 12 months. Industrial production increased 0.3 percent in Aug 2014 and fell 0.7 percent in 12 months. Industrial production decreased 1.0 percent in Jul 2014 and decreased 1.6 percent in 12 months. Industrial production decreased 1.3 percent in May 2014 and fell 1.7 percent in 12 months. Industrial production increased 0.5 percent in Apr 2014 and 1.5 percent in 12 months. Industrial production decreased 0.4 percent in Mar 2014 and 0.1 percent in 12 months. Industrial production fell 0.7 percent in Feb 2014 but increased 0.4 percent in 12 months. Industrial production increased 1.5 percent in Jan 2014 and grew 1.3 percent in 12 months. Industrial production fell 1.3 percent in Dec 2013 and 1.2 percent in 12 months. Industrial production decreased 0.2 percent in Nov 2013 and increased 0.9 percent CA relative to a year earlier. Industrial production increased 0.5 percent in Oct 2013 and fell 0.4 percent in 12 months. Industrial production increased 0.8 percent in Sep 2013 and fell 2.9 percent in 12 months. In Aug 2013, industrial production decreased 0.5 percent and fell 4.6 percent in 12 months. Industrial production changed 0.0 percent in Jul 2013 and fell 3.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2013. In the quarter Sep-Nov 2012, industrial production fell cumulatively 4.1 percent, at the annual equivalent rate of 15.6 percent. Industrial production fell 7.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2012. There have been negative changes with oscillations in monthly industrial production. Industrial production fell 18.8 percent in 2009 after falling 3.2 percent in 2008.

Table VG-1, Italy, Industrial Production ∆%

			Index CA	∆%	Index	∆%
2013	-	-	91.7	-3.2	91.4	-3.1
2014	-	-	91.0	-0.8	90.3	-1.2
2014	Index SA	Quarter ∆%	Index CA	4Q∆%	Index	∆%
I-trim.	91.8	0.0	92.7	0.4	91.5	-0.1
II-trim	91.3	-0.5	94.9	0.0	93.1	-1.6
III-trim	90.4	-1.0	85.6	-1.8	85.8	-1.4
IV-trim.	90.3	-0.1	91.0	-1.6	90.7	-1.7
2013	Index	Month ∆%	Index CA	12 Month ∆%
Jan	92.2	0.1	85.9	-3.4	89.0	-0.2
Feb	91.8	-0.4	92.1	-4.5	90.9	-8.2
Mar	91.4	-0.4	98.8	-5.8	94.8	-10.0
Apr	90.9	-0.5	88.6	-4.9	89.0	-0.4
May	91.8	1.0	99.3	-4.6	100.6	-4.6
Jun	91.6	-0.2	96.8	-2.3	94.2	-5.3
Jul	91.6	0.0	104.5	-3.8	106.8	-0.7
Aug	91.1	-0.5	58.6	-4.6	57.5	-7.6
Sep	91.8	0.8	98.5	-2.9	96.7	0.2
Oct	92.3	0.5	100.8	-0.4	103.0	-0.4
Nov	92.1	-0.2	96.5	0.9	93.9	-2.2
Dec	90.9	-1.3	80.3	-1.2	79.9	1.9
2014
Jan	92.3	1.5	87.0	1.3	87.3	-1.9
Feb	91.7	-0.7	92.5	0.4	91.3	0.4
Mar	91.3	-0.4	98.7	-0.1	96.0	1.3
Apr	91.8	0.5	89.9	1.5	89.0	0.0
May	90.6	-1.3	97.6	-1.7	95.8	-4.8
Jun	91.4	0.9	97.1	0.3	94.5	0.3
Jul	90.5	-1.0	102.8	-1.6	105.0	-1.7
Aug	90.8	0.3	58.2	-0.7	55.4	-3.7
Sep	90.0	-0.9	95.8	-2.7	97.0	0.3
Oct	90.0	0.0	97.8	-3.0	99.9	-3.0
Nov	90.3	0.3	94.7	-1.9	92.1	-1.9
Dec	90.7	0.4	80.4	0.1	80.0	0.1
2015
Jan	90.1	-0.7	85.1	-2.2	82.8	-5.2

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/152419

Chart VG-1 provides 12-month percentage changes of Italy’s index of industrial production. Industrial production improved from decline of 1.2 percent the 12 months ending in Dec 2013 to increase of 0.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2014 but decrease of 2.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2015.

Chart VG-1, Italy, Industrial Production, 12-Month Percentage Changes

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/en/

Exports and imports of Italy and monthly growth rates SA are in Table VG-2. There have been significant fluctuations. Seasonally adjusted exports decreased 2.5 percent in Jan 2015 while imports increased 1.0 percent. The SA trade balance deteriorated from surplus of €5076 million in Dec 2014 to surplus of €3917 million in Jan 2015.

Table VG-2, Italy, Exports, Imports and Trade Balance SA Million Euros and Quarter and Month SA ∆%

2013	Exports	∆%	Imports	∆%	Balance
IQ	97,813	-0.1	91,799	-1.2	6,014
IQ	98,115	0.3	89,542	-2.5	8,573
IIIQ	98,155	0.0	91,587	2.3	6,568
IVQ	98,336	0.2	89,506	-2.3	8,830
2014
IQ	98,964	0.6	88,483	-1.1	10,481
IIQ	99,486	0.5	89,395	1.0	10,091
IIIQ	99,366	-0.1	89,232	-0.2	10,134
IVQ	101,419	2.1	88,623	-0.7	12,796
2013
Jan	33,100	2.9	31,279	2.6	1,821
Feb	32,113	-3.0	30,190	-3.5	1,923
Mar	32,600	1.5	30,330	0.5	2,270
Apr	32,491	-0.3	29,976	-1.2	2,515
May	32,641	0.5	29,600	-1.3	3,041
Jun	32,983	1.0	29,966	1.2	3,017
Jul	32,621	-1.1	30,366	1.3	2,255
Aug	32,672	0.2	30,552	0.6	2,120
Sep	32,862	0.6	30,669	0.4	2,193
Oct	32,647	-0.7	29,926	-2.4	2,721
Nov	32,157	-1.5	29,206	-2.4	2,951
Dec	33,532	4.3	30,374	4.0	3,158
2014
Jan	33,358	-0.5	29,737	-2.1	3,621
Feb	32,933	-1.3	29,475	-0.9	3,458
Mar	32,673	-0.8	29,271	-0.7	3,402
Apr	32,804	0.4	29,172	-0.3	3,632
May	33,590	2.4	29,937	2.6	3,653
Jun	33,092	-1.5	30,286	1.2	2,806
Jul	32,611	-1.5	29,569	-2.4	3,042
Aug	33,136	1.6	29,581	0.0	3,555
Sep	33,619	1.5	30,082	1.7	3,537
Oct	33,759	0.4	29,771	-1.0	3,988
Nov	33,386	-1.1	29,654	-0.4	3,732
Dec	34,274	2.7	29,198	-1.5	5,076
2015
Jan	33,403	-2.5	29,486	1.0	3,917

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/153223

Italy’s trade account not seasonally adjusted is in Table VG-3. Values are different because the data are original and not adjusted. Exports decreased 4.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2015 while imports decreased 4.2 percent with actual trade surplus of €219 million. Twelve-month rates of growth picked up again in Aug 2011 with 15.2 percent for exports and 12.6 percent for imports. In Sep 2011, exports grew 10.2 percent relative to a year earlier while imports grew only 3.6 percent. In Oct 2011, exports grew 4.5 percent while imports fell 0.2 percent. In Nov 2011, exports grew 6.5 percent in 12 months while imports grew 0.5 percent. Exports continued to growth of 7.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2012 while imports fell 1.8 percent. The actual or not seasonally adjusted trade balance deficit fell from €2948 million in Aug 2011 to surplus of €1407 million in Dec 2011 but turned into deficit of €4691 million in Jan 2012. The deficit improved to lower deficit of €1311 million in Feb 2012 and surplus of €1831 million in Mar 2012, returning to deficit of €421 million in Apr and surplus of €833 million in May. In Jun 2012, the actual surplus was €2681 million and then €4673 million in Jul 2012, which was the highest in 2012, but deteriorated to actual deficit of €535 million in Aug 2012. Exports fell 20.9 percent and imports 22.1 percent during the global recession in 2009. Growth of exports was 12.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2012 while imports increased 1.4 percent, increasing the trade surplus to €2337 million. The trade surplus was €2314 million in Dec 2012 with growth of exports of minus 4.5 percent in 12 months while imports fell 7.8 percent. The trade balance deteriorated to deficit of €1852 million in Jan 2013 even with growth of exports of 9.0 percent in 12 months while imports fell 1.1 percent. The trade balance returned to surplus of €1053 million in Feb 2013 with decline of exports by 2.8 percent and decrease of imports by 9.8 percent. The surplus widened to €3030 million in Mar 2013 with exports declining 5.9 percent and imports falling 9.8 percent. The surplus shrank to €1946 million in Apr 2013 with growth of exports of 4.6 and decline of imports of 3.1 percent. The surplus increased to €3913 million in May 2013 with declines of exports of 1.5 percent and of imports of 10.5 percent. The surplus declined to €3425 million in Jun 2013 with decline of exports of 3.1 percent in 12 months and of imports of 5.7 percent.

Table VG-3, Italy, Exports, Imports and Trade Balance NSA Million Euros and Year-on-Year ∆%

2012	390,182	3.8	380,292	-5.3	9,890
2013	390,233	0.0	361,002	-5.1	29,230
2014	397,996	2.0	355,115	-1.6	42,882
2012
IQ	95,398	5.8	99,568	-4.0	-4,170
IIQ	100,172	3.0	97,079	-6.9	3,093
IIIQ	94,938	2.6	90,670	-5.7	4,268
IVQ	99,674	3.9	92,975	-4.4	6,699
2013
IQ	94,837	-0.6	92,606	-7.0	2,231
IIQ	99,971	-0.2	90,687	-6.6	9,284
IIIQ	95,197	0.3	87,750	-3.2	7,447
IVQ	100,227	0.6	89,959	-3.2	10,268
2014
IQ	96,151	1.4	89,407	-3.5	6,744
IIQ	100,736	0.8	90,277	-0.5	10,459
IIIQ	97,260	2.2	86,256	-1.7	11,003
IVQ	103,851	3.6	89,174	-0.9	14,676
2013
Jan	29,957	9.0	31,809	-1.1	-1,852
Feb	30,921	-2.8	29,868	-9.8	1,053
Mar	33,959	-5.9	30,929	-9.8	3,030
Apr	31,959	4.6	30,013	-3.1	1,946
May	34,689	-1.5	30,775	-10.5	3,913
Jun	33,324	-3.1	29,899	-5.7	3,425
Jul	38,415	3.3	32,546	0.1	5,869
Aug	24,589	-6.0	23,689	-11.3	900
Sep	32,194	1.9	31,515	0.2	679
Oct	36,291	0.7	32,444	-3.7	3,847
Nov	32,572	-3.3	29,584	-6.5	2,988
Dec	31,364	4.7	27,931	1.1	3,433
2014
Jan	30,074	0.4	29,823	-6.2	251
Feb	31,802	2.8	29,151	-2.4	2,651
Mar	34,274	0.9	30,433	-1.6	3,842
Apr	32,498	1.7	28,991	-3.4	3,507
May	34,685	0.0	31,065	0.9	3,620
Jun	33,552	0.7	30,220	1.1	3,332
Jul	38,616	0.5	31,694	-2.6	6,923
Aug	24,069	-2.1	22,009	-7.1	2,060
Sep	34,574	7.4	32,554	3.3	2,020
Oct	37,335	2.9	31,939	-1.6	5,396
Nov	33,138	1.7	29,599	0.1	3,539
Dec	33,377	6.4	27,636	-1.1	5,741
2015
Jan	28,803	-4.2	28,584	-4.2	219

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/153223

Growth rates of Italy’s trade and major products are in Table VG-4 for the period Jan 2015 relative to Jan 2014. Growth rates of cumulative imports relative to a year earlier are negative for energy with minus 33.5 percent. Exports of durable goods decreased 1.8 percent and exports of capital goods decreased 2.7 percent. The rate of growth of exports of minus 4.2 percent in Jan 2015/Jan 2014 relative to that of imports of minus 4.2 percent may reflect weak demand in Italy with GDP declining during eight consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 through IIQ2013 together with softening commodity prices. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2013, changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2013, decreased 0.1 percent in IQ2014 and fell 0.2 percent in IIQ2014. Italy’s GDP fell 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 and changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2014.

Table VG-4, Italy, Exports and Imports % Share of Products in Total and ∆%

	Exports Share %	Exports ∆% Jan 2015/ Jan 2014	Imports Share %	Imports ∆% Jan 2015/ Jan 2014
Consumer Goods	31.6	-1.7	28.6	-0.5
Durable	6.0	-1.8	3.2	12.1
Non-Durable	25.6	-1.6	25.4	-1.8
Capital Goods	33.1	-2.7	21.9	10.2
Inter- mediate Goods	31.7	-4.6	33.2	1.3
Energy	3.7	-31.0	16.3	-33.5
Total ex Energy	96.3	-3.0	83.7	2.8
Total	100.0	-4.2	100.0	-4.2

Note: % Share for 2014 total trade.

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/153223

Table VG-5 provides Italy’s trade balance by product categories in Jan 2015 and cumulative Jan 2015. Italy’s trade balance excluding energy, generated surplus of €3096 million in Jan 2015 and €3096 million cumulative in Jan 2015 but the energy trade balance created deficit of €2877 million in Jan 2015 and cumulative €2877 million in Jan 2015. The overall surplus in Jan 2015 was €219 million with cumulative surplus of €219 million in Jan 2015. Italy has significant competitiveness in various economic activities in contrast with some other countries with debt difficulties.

Table VG-5, Italy, Trade Balance by Product Categories, € Millions

	Jan 2015	Cumulative 2015
Consumer Goods	969	969
Durable	609	609
Nondurable	360	360
Capital Goods	2,632	2,632
Intermediate Goods	-505	-505
Energy	-2,877	-2,877
Total ex Energy	3,096	3,096
Total	219	219

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/153223

Professors Ricardo Caballero and Francesco Giavazzi (2012Jan15) find that the resolution of the European sovereign crisis with survival of the euro area would require success in the restructuring of Italy. Growth of the Italian economy would ensure that success. A critical problem is that the common euro currency prevents Italy from devaluing the exchange rate to parity or the exchange rate that would permit export growth to promote internal economic activity, which could generate fiscal revenues for primary fiscal surpluses that ensure creditworthiness. Fiscal consolidation and restructuring are important but of long-term gestation. Immediate growth of the Italian economy would consolidate the resolution of the sovereign debt crisis. Caballero and Giavazzi (2012Jan15) argue that 55 percent of the exports of Italy are to countries outside the euro area such that devaluation of 15 percent would be effective in increasing export revenue. Newly available data in Table VG-6 providing Italy’s trade with regions and countries supports the argument of Caballero and Giavazzi (2012Jan15). Italy’s exports to the European Monetary Union (EMU), or euro area, are only 40.3 percent of the total in Jan 2015. Exports to the non-European Union area with share of 45.3 percent in Italy’s total exports are growing at minus 3.5 percent in Jan 2015 relative to Jan 2014 while those to EMU are growing at minus 6.6 percent.

Table VG-6, Italy, Exports and Imports by Regions and Countries, % Share and 12-Month ∆%

Jan 2015	Exports % Share	∆% Jan 2015/ Jan 2014	Imports % Share	∆% Jan 2015/ Jan 2014
EU	54.7	-4.7	57.1	-0.5
EMU 19	40.3	-6.6	45.3	-1.7
France	10.6	-8.7	8.6	-4.3
Germany	12.6	-6.5	15.4	-3.5
Spain	4.5	-4.2	4.8	2.1
UK	5.3	0.5	2.8	-3.1
Non EU	45.3	-3.5	42.9	-8.5
Europe non EU	11.8	-7.9	11.3	-19.4
USA	7.5	23.5	3.5	15.6
China	2.6	-7.8	7.1	9.0
OPEC	5.7	-6.4	5.8	-23.3
Total	100.0	-4.2	100.0	-4.2

Notes: EU: European Union; EMU: European Monetary Union (euro zone)

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/153223

Table VG-7 provides Italy’s trade balance by regions and countries. Italy had trade deficit of € 487 million with the 19 countries of the euro zone (EMU 19) in Jan 2015 and cumulative deficit of €487 million in Jan 2015. Depreciation to parity could permit greater competitiveness in improving the trade surplus of €333 million in Jan 2015 with Europe non-European Union, the trade surplus of €1174 million with the US and the trade deficit with non-European Union of €333 million in Jan 2015. There is significant rigidity in the trade deficit in Jan 2015 of €1836 million with China. There is a trade deficit of €21 million with members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Higher exports could drive economic growth in the economy of Italy that would permit less onerous adjustment of the country’s fiscal imbalances, raising the country’s credit rating.

Table VG-7, Italy, Trade Balance by Regions and Countries, Millions of Euro

Regions and Countries	Trade Balance Jan 2015 Millions of Euro	Trade Balance Cumulative Jan 2015 Millions of Euro
EU	452	452
EMU 19	-487	-487
France	795	795
Germany	-275	-275
Spain	69	69
UK	786	786
Non EU	-233	-233
Europe non EU	333	333
USA	1,174	1,174
China	-1,836	-1,836
OPEC	-21	-21
Total	219	219

Notes: EU: European Union; EMU: European Monetary Union (euro zone)

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/153223

VH United Kingdom. Annual data in Table VH-UK show the strong impact of the global recession in the UK with decline of GDP of 4.3 percent in 2009 after dropping 0.3 percent in 2008. Recovery of 1.9 percent in 2010 is relatively low in comparison with annual growth rates in 2007 and earlier years. Growth was only 1.6 percent in 2011 and 0.7 percent in 2012. Growth increased to 1.7 percent in 2013 and 2.6 percent in 2014. The bottom part of Table VH-UK provides average growth rates of UK GDP since 1948. The UK economy grew at 2.6 percent per year on average between 1948 and 2013, which is relatively high for an advanced economy. The growth rate of GDP between 2000 and 2007 is higher at 2.9 percent. Growth in the current cyclical expansion from 2010 to 2014 has been only at 1.7 percent as advanced economies struggle with weak internal demand and world trade. GDP in 2014 higher by 3.7 percent relative to 2007 while it would have been 22.2 higher at trend of 2.9 percent as from 2000 to 2007.

Table VH-UK, UK, Gross Domestic Product, ∆%

	∆% on Prior Year
1998	3.5
1999	3.2
2000	3.8
2001	2.7
2002	2.5
2003	4.3
2004	2.5
2005	2.8
2006	3.0
2007	2.6
2008	-0.3
2009	-4.3
2010	1.9
2011	1.6
2012	0.7
2013	1.7
2014	2.6
Average Growth Rates ∆% per Year
1948-2014	2.6
1950-1959	3.1
1960-1969	3.1
1970-1979	2.6
1980-1989	3.1
1990-1999	2.2
2000-2007	2.9
2007-2013*	1.1
2007-2014*	3.7
2000-2014	1.7

*Absolute change from 2007 to 2012 an from 2007 to 2013

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/second-estimate-of-gdp/q4-2014/index.html

The Business Activity Index of the Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI^® decreased from 57.2 in Jan to 56.7 in Feb (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/55c2dfd969034d85b23cd35747e754c6). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds the combined indices consistent with the UK economy growing at around 0.6 percent in IQ2015 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/55c2dfd969034d85b23cd35747e754c6). The Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®) increased to 54.1 in Feb from 53.1 in Jan (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/194fc399a4b94c9a8f8b659e4a221dcd). New export orders weakened. Rob Dobson, Senior Economist at Markit that compiles the Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI^®, finds that manufacturing conditions suggest growth at a quarterly rate of 0.5 percent (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/194fc399a4b94c9a8f8b659e4a221dcd). Table UK provides the economic indicators for the United Kingdom.

Table UK, UK Economic Indicators

CPI	Jan month ∆%: -0.9 Dec 12-month ∆%: 0.3 Blog 2/22/15
Output/Input Prices	Output Prices: Jan 12-month NSA ∆%: -1.8; excluding food, petroleum ∆%: 0.5 Input Prices: Dec 12-month NSA ∆%: -14.2 Excluding ∆%: -2.9 Blog 2/22/15
GDP Growth	IVQ2014 prior quarter ∆% 0.5; year earlier same quarter ∆%: 2.7 Blog 3/31/13 4/28/13 5/26/13 7/28/13 8/25/13 9/29/13 10/27/13 12/1/13 12/22/13 2/2/14 3/2/14 4/6/14 5/4/14 5/25/14 6/29/14 7/27/14 8/17/14 10/5/14 10/26/14 11/30/14 12/28/14 2/1/15 3/1/15
Industrial Production	Jan 2015/Jan 2014 ∆%: Production Industries 1.3; Manufacturing 1.9 Blog 3/22/15
Retail Sales	Jan month ∆%: -0.3 Jan 12-month ∆%: 5.4 Blog 2/22/15
Labor Market	Nov-Jan Unemployment Rate: 5.7%; Claimant Count 2.4%; Earnings Growth 1.8% Blog 3/22/15 LMGDP 3/22/15
GDP and the Labor Market	IVQ2014 Employment 102.6 IQ2008 =100 GDP IIIQ14 103.4 IQ2008=100 Blog 3/22/14
Trade Balance	Balance SA Jan minus ₤616 million Exports Jan ∆%: -2.3; Nov-Jan ∆%: 1.5 Imports Jan ∆%: -5.6 Jan-Nov ∆%: -2.9 Blog 3/22/15

Links to blog comments in Table UK:

3/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html

2/22/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html

2/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html

12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

10/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/financial-oscillations-world-inflation.html

10/5/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/world-financial-turbulence-twenty-seven.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

7/27/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

5/4/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html

4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html

3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html

2/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

12/22/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html

12/1/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/exit-risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html

10/27/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/twenty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html

9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html

7/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html

5/26/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

4/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_28.html

03/31/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

Table VH-L1 of the UK Office for national Statistics provides the data for GDP and the labor market (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q4-2014--quarterly-update/index.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q3-2014--quaterly-update/index.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q2-2014--august-quarterly-update/index.html

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q1-2014--may-gdp-update/index.html

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q1-2014--april-gdp-update/index.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2013-q4--march-gdp-update/index.html

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q4-2013--february-gdp-update/index.html

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q4-2013--february-labour-market-update/index.html

Table VH-L1, UK, Indices of Quarterly Employment Ages 16 and Over, Total Hours Worked, GDP and Output per Hour, 2008-2014

	GDP, CVM	Employment, Aged 16-64	Male Employment, Aged 16-64	Female Employment, Aged 16-64
2008 Q1	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
Q2	99.8	100.1	100.0	100.2
Q3	98.1	99.6	99.4	99.9
Q4	95.9	99.4	99.1	99.8
2009 Q1	94.2	98.8	98.3	99.4
Q2	94.0	97.8	96.8	98.9
Q3	94.1	97.6	96.3	99.1
Q4	94.5	97.7	96.2	99.4
2010 Q1	95.0	97.3	95.9	99.1
Q2	95.9	97.8	96.7	99.1
Q3	96.5	98.4	97.5	99.4
Q4	96.6	98.1	97.3	99.0
2011 Q1	97.1	98.5	97.5	99.6
Q2	97.3	98.5	97.6	99.5
Q3	98.0	98.0	96.7	99.5
Q4	98.0	98.1	97.0	99.4
2012 Q1	98.0	98.5	97.5	99.6
Q2	97.9	99.0	98.1	100.0
Q3	98.7	99.3	98.4	100.4
Q4	98.3	99.7	98.6	101.1
2013 Q1	98.9	99.5	98.1	101.1
Q2	99.6	99.7	98.3	101.3
Q3	100.3	100.2	99.1	101.4
Q4	100.7	100.7	99.5	102.2
2014 Q1	101.3	101.5	100.3	102.9
Q2	102.1	102.0	100.7	103.5
Q3	102.9	102.3	101.0	103.8
Q4	103.4	102.6	101.1	104.4

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q4-2014--quarterly-update/index.html

Chart VH-1 of the UK Office for National Statistics (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q4-2014--quarterly-update/index.html) provides GDP and employment indexed to IQ2008 when GDP reached its highest pre-downturn level. GDP increased 3.4 percent during the entire cycle from IQ2008 to IVQ2014 and employment increased 2.6 percent.

Chart VH-1, UK, GDP and Employment, 2008-2014

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q4-2014--quarterly-update/index.html

Chart VH-2 of the UK Office for National Statistics provides comparison of output performance during four cycles in the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. Output is indexed to the pre-recession peak. For example, the index for the current economic cycles is 100 for IQ2008. Output performance was stronger in the earlier economic cycles.

Chart VH-2, UK, Index of Output in Economic Cycles

UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q4-2013--january-gdp-update/index.html

Table VH-L2 provides output in the four economic cycles. Output increased 8.8 percent in the cycle of the early 1970s, 11.7 percent in the cycle of the 1980s and 15.8 percent in the cycle of the 1990s. Output is 1.3 percent below the pre-recession peak in IQ2008.

Table VH-L2, Index of Output in Economic Cycles, Pre-Contraction = 100

Early 70s (1973 Q2=100)	Early 80s (1979 Q4=100)	Early 90s (1990 Q2=100)	Latest (2008 Q1=100)
ABMI	ABMI	ABMI	ABMI
100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
99.1	99.0	99.1	99.1
99.1	97.3	98.4	97.6
96.8	97.1	98.3	95.6
98.6	95.8	97.9	93.2
99.5	95.4	97.6	92.8
98.4	95.4	97.9	92.8
98.6	96.6	98.4	93.2
97.2	96.6	98.6	93.7
97.0	97.1	99.4	94.6
98.4	98.3	100.3	95.0
100.0	98.3	101.4	94.8
99.1	99.0	102.1	95.3
100.0	100.4	103.2	95.4
102.1	101.3	104.1	95.9
102.3	102.5	105.5	95.8
101.8	103.8	107.1	95.7
102.5	104.8	108.7	95.4
104.1	104.2	109.6	96.1
104.6	104.6	110.1	96.0
105.5	106.3	110.9	96.5
106.7	107.5	112.3	97.3
107.6	109.2	112.9	98.0
106.7	109.2	114.2	98.7
111.3	110.1	114.8
108.8	111.7	115.8

UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q4-2013--january-gdp-update/index.html

Labor market statistics of the UK for the quarter Nov 2014-Jan 2015 are in Table VH-L2. The unemployment rate fell to 5.7 percent and the number unemployed decreased 479,000 in the year, reaching 1.856 million. The employment rate is 73.3 percent. Earnings including bonuses increased 1.8 percent over the earlier year. The claimant count or those receiving unemployment benefits stands at 2.4 percent, down 0.1 percentage points on the month and down 1.1 percentage points on the year.

Table VH-L2, UK, Labor Market Statistics

	Quarter Nov 2014-Jan 2015
Unemployment Rate	5.7 %, 6.0% prior quarter and 7.2% year earlier
Number Unemployed	(1) Down 102,000 on quarter and down 479,000 from year earlier to reach 1.856 million (2) Unemployment rate 16 to 24 years of age 16.2% of that age group (3) Unemployed 16 to 24 years excluding those in full-time education 497,000 (246,000 in full-time education); unemployment rate 16.2% change -0.4% Points
Number Unemployed > one and two years	(1) Number unemployed over one year: 624,000, down 45,000 on quarter, down 197,000 on year (2) Number unemployed over two years: 332,000, down 38,000 on quarter, down 116,000 on year
Inactivity Rate 16-64 Years of Age (Definition: Not in employment but have not been seeking employment in the past four weeks or are unable to start work in two weeks)	(1) 22.2%, 22.3% prior quarter, 22.3% year earlier (2) Economically inactive 16-64 down 30,000 on quarter and up 14,000 on year to 9.026 million
Employment Rate	73.3%, 73.0% prior quarter, 72.1% year earlier
Number Employed	(1) Up 143,000 on quarter, +617,000 on year to 30.939 million (2) Number of employees up 604,000 on year to 26.193 million (3) Self-employed rose 33,000 on year to 4.526 million (4) Full-time 22.640 million, up 481,000 on year (5) 8.299 million working part-time, up 137,000 on year
Earnings Growth Rates Year on Year	(1) Total 1.8% (including bonuses) over year earlier; regular 1.6%; private sector 2.1% on year earlier, public sector 0.7 % on year earlier (2) Regular private 2.0% (excluding bonuses); regular public 0.7% on year earlier
Full-time and Part-time	(1) Number employees full-time 19.362 million, up 522,000 on year; self-employed full-time 3.212 million down 28,000 on year (2) Number employees part-time 6.831 million, up 82,000 on year; self-employed part-time 1.315 million, up 62,000 in year
Claimant Count (Jobseeker’s Allowance, JSA)	(1) Latest estimate: 791,200,000; down 31,000 in month, down 380,500 on year earlier (2) Claimant count 2.4%, down 0.1 on month and down 1.1 % points on year

Note: Labor Force Survey does not measure monthly changes. Comparisons on quarter are on quarter before prior quarter

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/taxonomy/index.html?nscl=Labour+Market#tab-sum-pub

Table VH-L3 provides indicators of the labor force survey of the UK for Nov 2014-Jan 2015 and earlier quarters. There has been improvement in UK labor markets with the rate of unemployment decreasing from 7.8 percent in Nov-Jan 2013 to 5.7 percent in Nov-Jan 2015.

Table VH-L3, UK, Labor Force Survey Indicators

	LFHP	EMP	PART	UNE	RATE
Nov-Jan 2013	40,520	29,895	71.4	2,533	7.8
Nov-Jan 2014	40,585	30,322	72.1	2,335	7.2
Feb-Apr 2014	40,605	30,629	72.7	2,162	6.6
May-Jul 2014	40,625	30,682	72.8	2,021	6.2
Aug-Oct 2014	40,649	30,796	73.0	1.958	6.0
Nov-Jan 2015	40,673	30,939	73.3	1,856	5.7

Notes: LFHP: Labor Force Household Population Ages 16 to 64 in thousands; EMP: Employed Ages 16 and over in thousands; PART: Employment as % of Population Ages 16 to 64; UNE: Unemployed Ages 16 and over in thousands; Rate: Number Unemployed Ages 16 and over as % of Employed plus Unemployed

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/taxonomy/index.html?nscl=Labour+Market#tab-sum-pub

The UK Office for National Statistics provides the output of production industries with revisions. Table VH-1 incorporates the latest available data for Jan 2015 with revised weights (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/iop/index-of-production/december-2014/index.html). Manufacturing accounts for 69.4 percent of the production industries of the UK and increased 1.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2015. Capital goods industries decreased 0.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2015 after increasing 5.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2014, 4.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2014, 2.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014, 3.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2014 and 3.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014. Output of capital goods increased 2.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2014. Output of capital goods industries decreased 1.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013, increasing 1.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2013. Capital goods industries had been growing at very high rates during the current cyclical recovery but falling from the unsustainable high of 12.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2011. Mining and quarrying increased 12.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2013 and 4.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013, decreasing 3.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2014. Mining and quarrying increased 3.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014 and fell 0.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2014. Mining and quarrying increased 3.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2015. The 12-month rates of growth of the entire index of production industries registered declines for all 12 months from Mar 2011 to Aug 2013 with exception of 0.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2013. With exception of most months for capital goods and Sep to Dec 2012 for consumer durables, 12-month percentage changes of all segments are mostly negative from Jan to Dec 2012. Energy and mining have been drivers of decline. The upper part of Table VH-1 provides rates of change of yearly output. Manufacturing output fell 9.4 percent in 2009 after falling 2.8 percent in 2008 but grew at 4.7 percent in the initial phase of the recovery in 2010 and 1.8 percent in 2011 but fell 1.3 percent in 2012 and declined 0.7 percent in 2013. Manufacturing grew 2.9 percent in 2014.

Table VH-1, UK, Output of the Production Industries, Chained Volume Indices of Gross Value Added, 12-Month ∆%

	PROD IND	MNG	MFG	CON DUR	CON NDUR	CAP	ENERGY
Weight	1000	156.8	693.6	58.6	195.6	252.8	235.6
2010	3.1	-3.9	4.7	-2.6	-0.3	10.7	-2.1
2011	-0.8	-14.1	1.8	0.2	-0.8	6.6	-10.7
2012	-2.7	-10.8	-1.3	-2.0	-3.4	1.4	-8.7
2013	-0.5	-2.5	-0.7	-1.8	-1.0	1.5	-3.8
2014	1.6	-0.6	2.9	5.8	0.7	3.2	-3.6

		PROD IND	MNG	MFG	CON DUR	CON NDUR	CAP	ENERGY
2012	Nov	-3.3	-13.7	-2.4	1.9	-5.1	-0.7	-8.8
	Dec	-2.5	-8.7	-1.8	2.4	-5.4	2.5	-6.4

2013	Jan	-3.3	-7.0	-3.6	0.4	-6.2	1.8	-5.6
	Feb	-2.7	-9.1	-2.5	-4.5	-5.1	3.0	-8.8
	Mar	-1.9	-13.1	-1.1	2.0	-3.6	3.6	-6.3
	Apr	-2.0	-7.0	-1.4	-1.6	-0.3	2.7	-6.2
	May	-2.1	-3.0	-2.3	-3.6	1.8	-0.3	-4.6
	Jun	0.9	-2.9	1.5	0.3	1.7	2.6	-5.8

	Jul	-1.7	-5.7	-1.5	-2.5	0.6	0.2	-6.1
	Aug	-1.9	-9.0	-1.0	-1.5	-2.3	0.4	-8.4
	Sep	2.6	14.1	0.2	-1.7	-1.5	1.9	6.4
	Oct	2.8	12.4	1.5	-6.5	0.5	2.3	2.9
	Nov	1.8	2.4	1.5	-	0.6	1.6	-0.7
	Dec	1.3	4.0	0.8	-2.7	2.6	-1.9	-0.2

2014	Jan	1.6	-3.2	2.4	1.7	-2.4	2.0	-5.5
	Feb	2.7	4.3	3.6	7.5	1.8	3.0	-1.0
	Mar	2.5	8.7	2.9	0.9	2.5	1.7	-1.1
	Apr	2.8	3.1	4.6	3.8	2.1	3.9	-4.5
	May	1.9	3.4	2.7	3.1	-1.3	3.3	-2.5
	Jun	0.9	-2.6	2.2	3.4	-1.5	3.4	-3.7

	Jul	1.4	-3.0	2.9	5.5	-0.4	2.5	-3.6
	Aug	1.5	-5.4	3.5	6.1	2.9	3.3	-4.6
	Sep	0.8	-4.4	2.6	9.3	1.0	3.3	-5.3
	Oct	1.0	-0.8	2.1	9.2	1.0	2.7	-1.3
	Nov	1.3	-0.9	3.2	7.7	2.4	4.1	-4.1
	Dec	0.8	-5.0	2.6	12.0	0.1	5.9	-5.9

2015	Jan	1.3	3.2	1.9	2.5	4.8	-0.4	0.1

Notes: PROD IND: Production Industries; MNG: Mining; MFG: Manufacturing; ENGY: Energy; CON DUR: Consumer Durables; CONS NDUR: Consumer Nondurables; CAP: Capital Goods

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/iop/index-of-production/january-2015/index.html

Percentage changes in the production industries and major components in a month relative to the prior month are shown in Table VH-2. The UK index of production decreased 0.1 percent in Jan 2015 with manufacturing decreasing 0.5 percent, capital goods decreasing 3.7 percent and energy increasing 1.3 percent. The UK index of production decreased 0.2 in Dec 2014 with manufacturing increasing 0.1 percent and capital goods 1.3 percent while energy fell 1.0 percent. The production index increased 0.1 percent in Nov 2014 with manufacturing increasing 0.8 percent and capital goods 1.3 percent while energy fell 1.0 percent. The UK index of production decreased 0.2 percent in Oct 2014 with decrease of manufacturing of 0.7 percent and decrease of capital goods of 1.1 percent. Energy increased 1.3 percent. The UK index of production increased 0.6 percent in Sep 2014 with increase of manufacturing of 0.6 percent and increase of capital goods of 2.2 percent. Energy increased 1.0 percent and mining and quarrying increased 3.3 percent. Fluctuations of monthly production are quite wide.

Table VH-2, UK, Output of the Production Industries, Chained Volume Indices of Gross Value Added, Latest Month on Previous Month ∆%

		PROD INDU	MNG	MFG	CON DUR	CON NDUR	CAP	ENERGY
Weight		1000	156.8	693.6	58.6	195.6	252.8	235.6
2012	Nov	0.7	6.7	-0.3	-4.2	-0.7	0.1	3.8
	Dec	0.9	1.3	1.4	2.1	0.3	3.2	0.4

2013	Jan	-0.9	1.0	-1.3	0.1	0.8	-1.6	0.5
	Feb	0.2	-1.0	-0.3	-7.5	-0.2	-1.0	-1.4
	Mar	0.2	-4.7	1.2	7.0	-	2.0	-0.7
	Apr	-0.2	3.7	-0.9	-0.3	1.0	-1.0	1.3
	May	0.5	2.5	0.4	-2.6	2.3	-1.2	0.4
	Jun	1.0	1.7	1.2	0.9	-0.7	1.9	-1.0

	Jul	-0.3	0.3	-0.5	-	-0.5	0.1	0.8
	Aug	-0.4	0.5	-0.6	-	-2.6	-1.6	-
	Sep	1.3	2.2	1.4	0.8	1.6	2.1	1.7
	Oct	-0.4	-2.0	-0.2	-2.3	-0.7	-0.6	-2.7
	Nov	-0.3	-2.8	-0.3	2.5	-0.6	-0.6	0.2
	Dec	0.4	2.8	0.6	-0.6	2.2	-0.4	0.9

2014	Jan	-0.6	-6.0	0.2	4.6	-4.1	2.3	-4.8
	Feb	1.3	6.7	1.0	-2.1	4.1	-	3.3
	Mar	-	-0.7	0.5	0.4	0.7	0.7	-0.8
	Apr	0.2	-1.6	0.7	2.6	0.6	1.1	-2.2
	May	-0.4	2.7	-1.4	-3.3	-1.0	-1.8	2.5
	Jun	-	-4.2	0.7	1.3	-1.0	2.1	-2.2

	Jul	0.2	-	0.2	1.9	0.6	-0.8	0.9
	Aug	-0.3	-2.0	-	0.6	0.7	-0.8	-1.1
	Sep	0.6	3.3	0.6	3.8	-0.3	2.2	1.0
	Oct	-0.2	1.7	-0.7	-2.4	-0.7	-1.1	1.3
	Nov	0.1	-2.9	0.8	1.1	0.8	0.7	-2.6
	Dec	-0.2	-1.4	0.1	3.3	-	1.3	-1.0

2015	Jan	-0.1	2.0	-0.5	-4.3	0.4	-3.7	1.3

Notes: PROD IND: Production Industries; MNG: Mining; MFG: Manufacturing; ENGY: Energy; CON DUR: Consumer Durables; CONS NDUR: Consumer Nondurables; CAP: Capital Goods

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/iop/index-of-production/january-2015/index.html

Table VH-3 provides the breakdown of production in 12-month, monthly growth and percentage contributions.

Table VH-3, UK, Growth Rates and Percentage Point Contributions to the Index of Production

Sector	Summary Description	% of production	Month on same month a year ago growth (%)	Contribution to production (% points)
IoP	Index of Production	100.0	1.3	1.3
Sector B	Total Mining & Quarrying	15.7	3.2	0.43
5	Coal & Lignite	0.1	-4.2	0.00
6	Crude petroleum & Natural gas	12.9	1.4	0.14
789	Other mining & quarrying	2.6	8.3	0.30
Sector C	Total Manufacturing	69.4	1.9	1.35
CA	Food, beverages & tobacco	10.1	3.3	0.33
CB	Textiles & leather products	2.2	-9.1	-0.20
CC	Wood, paper & printing	4.9	4.7	0.23
CD	Coke & petroleum	1.4	-2.1	-0.02
CE	Chemical products	4.0	2.3	0.09
CF	Pharmaceutical products	6.0	8.3	0.41
CG	Rubber & plastic products	5.3	2.2	0.13
CH	Metal products	7.4	3.7	0.28
CI	Computer, electronic & optical	4.4	-1.8	-0.08
CJ	Electrical equipment	2.0	-2.3	-0.05
CK	Machinery & equipment	5.4	-9.9	-0.51
CL	Transport equipment	10.3	6.1	0.73
CM	Other manufacturing & repair	6.07718677	0.1	0.01
Sector D	Total Electricity & Gas	7.1	-2.4	-0.17
35.1	Electric power generation, transmission & distribution	4.7	-4.7	-0.23
35.2-3	Manufacture of gas; distribution of gaseous fuels through mains; steam & aircon supply	2.4	2.9	0.06
Sector E	Total Water	7.9	-4.1	-0.35
36	Water collection, treatment & supply	2.1	3.6	0.08
37	Sewerage	2.4	-10.1	-0.28
38	Waste collection, treatment & disposal activities; materials recovery	3.3	-4.2	-0.15
39	Remediation activities & other waste management services	0.1	-9.2	-0.01

Sector	Summary Description	% of production	Month on previous month growth (%)	Contribution to production (% points)
IoP	Index of Production	100.0	-0.1	-0.1
Sector B	Total Mining & Quarrying	15.7	2.0	0.28
5	Coal & Lignite	0.1	5.0	0.00
6	Crude petroleum & Natural gas	12.9	2.4	0.23
789	Other mining & quarrying	2.6	1.0	0.04
Sector C	Total Manufacturing	69.4	-0.5	-0.34
CA	Food, beverages & tobacco	10.1	-1.0	-0.10
CB	Textiles & leather products	2.2	4.7	0.09
CC	Wood, paper & printing	4.9	4.4	0.21
CD	Coke & petroleum	1.4	-2.8	-0.03
CE	Chemical products	4.0	4.1	0.16
CF	Pharmaceutical products	6.0	-1.1	-0.06
CG	Rubber & plastic products	5.3	-0.9	-0.05
CH	Metal products	7.4	4.2	0.31
CI	Computer, electronic & optical	4.4	-9.5	-0.47
CJ	Electrical equipment	2.0	-3.0	-0.07
CK	Machinery & equipment	5.4	-7.0	-0.34
CL	Transport equipment	10.3	-0.6	-0.08
CM	Other manufacturing & repair	6.1	1.5	0.09
Sector D	Total Electricity & Gas	7.1	-0.4	-0.03
35.1	Electric power generation, transmission & distribution	7.1	-1.6	-0.08
35.2-3	Manufacture of gas; distribution of gaseous fuels through mains; steam & aircon supply	4.7	2.3	0.05
Sector E	Total Water	2.4	0.4	0.04
36	Water collection, treatment & supply	7.9	3.6	0.08
37	Sewerage	2.1	1.4	0.03
38	Waste collection, treatment & disposal activities; materials recovery	2.4	-2.2	-0.07
39	Remediation activities & other waste management services	3.3	-3.7	0.00

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/iop/index-of-production/january-2015/index.html

The UK’s trade account is in Table VH-4. In Jan 2015, the UK ran a deficit in trade of goods and services (total trade) of ₤616 million. The deficit in trade of goods was ₤8412 million and ₤7842 million in goods excluding oil. A surplus in services of ₤7796 million contributed to reducing the overall deficit in goods and services (-₤8412 million plus ₤7796 million equal to ₤616 million). Services have contributed to lower deficits and have softened the impact of the global recession on the UK economy. Exports of goods and services decreased 2.3 percent in Jan 2015 and increased 1.5 percent in the quarter Nov 2014-Jan 2015 relative to the same quarter a year earlier with imports decreasing 5.6 percent in Jan and decreasing 2.9 percent in Nov 2014-Jan 2015 relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Excluding oil, UK exports of goods decreased 1.0 percent in Jan and increased 4.1 percent in Nov 2014-Jan 2015 relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Imports of goods excluding oil decreased 4.1 percent in Jan and increased 0.7 percent in Nov 2014-Jan 2015 relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Services exports increased 0.1 percent in Jan and increased 4.2 percent in Nov 2014-Jan 2015 relative to the same quarter a year earlier while services imports increased 0.1 percent in Jan and decreased 5.5 percent in Nov 2014-Jan 2015 relative to the same quarter a year earlier.

Table VH-4, Value of UK Trade in Goods and Services, Balance of Payments Basis, ₤ Million SA and ∆%

	₤ Million SA Jan 2015	Month ∆% Jan 2015	Nov 2014-Jan 2015 ∆% Nov 2013-Jan 2014
Total Trade
Exports	42,314	-2.3	1.5
Imports	42,930	-5.6	-2.9
Balance	-616
Trade in Goods
Exports	24,111	-4.1	-0.4
Imports	32,523	-7.2	-2.1
Balance	-8,412
Trade in Goods Excluding Oil
Exports	22,517	-1.0	4.1
Imports	30,359	-4.1	0.7
Balance	-7,842
Trade in Services
Exports	18,203	0.1	4.2
Imports	10,407	0.1	-5.5
Balance	7,796

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/uktrade/uk-trade/january-2015/index.html

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