G20 Monetary Policy, Recovery without Hiring, Ten Million Fewer Full-time Jobs, Youth an Middle Age Unemployment, Import and Export Prices, World Cyclical Slow Growth and Global Recession Risk: Part V

 

G20 Monetary Policy, Recovery without Hiring, Ten Million Fewer Full-time Jobs, Youth an Middle Age Unemployment, Import and Export Prices, World Cyclical Slow Growth and Global Recession Risk

Carlos M. Pelaez

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015

I Recovery without Hiring

IA1 Hiring Collapse

IA2 Labor Underutilization

ICA3 Ten Million Fewer Full-time Jobs

IA4 Theory and Reality of Cyclical Slow Growth Not Secular Stagnation: Youth and Middle-Age Unemployment

IIB Import and Export Prices

III World Financial Turbulence

IIIA Financial Risks

IIIE Appendix Euro Zone Survival Risk

IIIF Appendix on Sovereign Bond Valuation

IV Global Inflation

V World Economic Slowdown

VA United States

VB Japan

VC China

VD Euro Area

VE Germany

VF France

VG Italy

VH United Kingdom

VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets

VII Economic Indicators

VIII Interest Rates

IX Conclusion

References

Appendixes

Appendix I The Great Inflation

IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies

IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact

IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort

IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis

IIIGA Monetary Policy with Deficit Financing of Economic Growth

IIIGB Adjustment during the Debt Crisis of the 1980s

VD Euro Area. Table VD-EUR provides yearly growth rates of the combined GDP of the members of the European Monetary Union (EMU) or euro area since 1996. Growth was very strong at 3.3 percent in 2006 and 3.0 percent in 2007. The global recession had strong impact with growth of only 0.4 percent in 2008 and decline of 4.4 percent in 2009. Recovery was at lower growth rates of 2.0 percent in 2010 and 1.6 percent in 2011. EUROSTAT estimates growth of GDP of the euro area of minus 0.7 percent in 2012 and minus 0.4 percent in 2013 but 1.1 percent in 2014 and 1.7 percent in 2015.

Table VD-EUR, Euro Area, Yearly Percentage Change of Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, Unemployment and GDP ∆%

Year	HICP ∆%	Unemployment %	GDP ∆%
1999	1.2	9.6	2.9
2000	2.2	8.8	3.8
2001	2.4	8.2	2.0
2002	2.3	8.5	0.9
2003	2.1	9.0	0.7
2004	2.2	9.2	2.2
2005	2.2	9.1	1.7
2006	2.2	8.4	3.3
2007	2.2	7.5	3.0
2008	3.3	7.6	0.4
2009	0.3	9.6	-4.5
2010	1.6	10.1	1.9
2011	2.7	10.1	1.6
2012	2.5	11.3	-0.7
2013*	1.3	12.0	-0.4
2014*			1.1
2015*			1.7

*EUROSTAT forecast Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

The GDP of the euro area in 2012 in current US dollars in the dataset of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is $12,199.1 billion or 16.9 percent of world GDP of $72,216.4 billion (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/02/weodata/index.aspx). The sum of the GDP of France $2613.9 billion with the GDP of Germany of $3429.5 billion, Italy of $2014.1 billion and Spain $1323.5 billion is $9381.0 billion or 76.9 percent of total euro area GDP and 13.0 percent of World GDP. The four largest economies account for slightly more than three quarters of economic activity of the euro area. Table VD-EUR1 is constructed with the dataset of EUROSTAT, providing growth rates of the euro area as a whole and of the largest four economies of Germany, France, Italy and Spain annually from 1996 to 2011 with the estimate of 2012 and forecasts for 2013, 2014 and 2015 by EUROSTAT. The impact of the global recession on the overall euro area economy and on the four largest economies was quite strong. There was sharp contraction in 2009 and growth rates have not rebounded to earlier growth with exception of Germany in 2010 and 2011.

Table VD-EUR1, Euro Area, Real GDP Growth Rate, ∆%

	Euro Area	Germany	France	Italy	Spain
2015*	1.7	1.9	1.7	1.2	1.7
2014*	1.1	1.7	0.9	0.7	0.5
2013*	-0.4	0.4	0.2	-1.9	-1.2
2012	-0.7	0.7	0.0	-2.4	-1.6
2011	1.6	3.3	2.0	0.4	0.1
2010	1.9	4.0	1.7	1.7	-0.2
2009	-4.5	-5.1	-3.1	-5.5	-3.8
2008	0.4	1.1	-0.1	-1.2	0.9
2007	3.0	3.3	2.3	1.7	3.5
2006	3.3	3.7	2.5	2.2	4.1
2005	1.7	0.7	1.8	0.9	3.6
2004	2.2	1.2	2.5	1.7	3.3
2003	0.7	-0.4	0.9	0.0	3.1
2002	0.9	0.0	0.9	0.5	2.7
2001	2.0	1.5	1.8	1.9	3.7
2000	3.8	3.1	3.7	3.7	5.0
1999	2.9	1.9	3.3	1.5	4.7
1998	2.8	1.9	3.4	1.4	4.5
1997	2.6	1.7	2.2	1.9	3.9
1996	1.5	0.8	1.1	1.1	2.5

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

The Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index of the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI^®, combining activity in manufacturing and services, increased from 51.4 in Dec to 52.2 in Jan (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d69ce69ee5104958871505c2fa8a688c). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds that the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI index suggests GDP growth at around 0.2 percent in IQ2015 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d69ce69ee5104958871505c2fa8a688c). The Markit Eurozone PMI^® Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing activity with close association with GDP increased from 51.4 in Dec to 52.6 in Jan (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/9ca7fcbe048340c7ae60a02626922ff1). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds slowing growth of GDP at around 0.3 percent in IQ2015 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/9ca7fcbe048340c7ae60a02626922ff1). The Markit Eurozone Services Business Activity Index increased from 51.6 in Dec to 52.7 in Jan (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/9ca7fcbe048340c7ae60a02626922ff1). The Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI^® increased to 51.0 in Jan from 50.6 in Dec (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/3300af07e7f240a492f4b407a4715d61). New export orders are weak. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds modest improvement of industrial growth in the euro area (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/3300af07e7f240a492f4b407a4715d61). Table EUR provides the data table for the euro area.

Table EUR, Euro Area Economic Indicators

GDP	IVQ2014 ∆% 0.3; IVQ2014/IVQ2013 ∆% 0.9 Blog 2/15/15
Unemployment	Dec 2014: 11.4 % unemployment rate; Dec 2014: 18.129 million unemployed Blog 2/1/15
HICP	Dec month ∆%: -0.1 12 months Dec ∆%: -0.2 Blog 1/18/15
Producer Prices	Euro Zone industrial producer prices Dec ∆%: -1.0 Dec 12-month ∆%: -2.7 Blog 2/8/15
Industrial Production	Dec month ∆%: 0.0; Dec 12 months ∆%: -0.2 Blog 2/15/15
Retail Sales	Dec month ∆%: 0.3 Dec 12 months ∆%: 2.8 Blog 2/8/15
Confidence and Economic Sentiment Indicator	Sentiment 101.2 Jan 2015 Consumer minus 8.5 Jan 2015 Blog 2/1/15
Trade	Jan-Nov 2014/Jan-Nov 2013 Exports ∆%: 1.8 Imports ∆%: 0.0 Nov 2014 12-month Exports ∆% 0.6 Imports ∆% -1.8 Blog 1/18/15

Links to blog comments in Table EUR:

2/8/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/job-creation-and-monetary-policy-twenty.html

2/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html

1/18/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/01/exchange-rate-conflicts-squeeze-of.html

Table VD-1 provides percentage changes of euro area real GDP in a quarter relative to the prior quarter. Real GDP fell 0.3 percent in IVQ2011, fell 0.1 in IQ2012 and fell in the final three quarters of 2012: 0.3 percent in IIQ2012, 0.1 percent in IIIQ2012 and 0.4 percent in IVQ2012. GDP fell 0.4 percent in IQ2013 and increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2013. Growth slowed at 0.2 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2013. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2014. GDP in the euro area increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2014. The global recession manifested in the euro area in five consecutive quarterly declines from IIQ2008 to IIQ2009. The strongest impact was contraction of 2.9 percent in IQ2009. Recovery began in IIIQ2009 with cumulative growth of 4.1 percent to IQ2011 or at the annual equivalent rate of 2.3 percent. Growth was much more vigorous from IVQ2003 to IQ2008.

Table VD-1, Euro Area, Real GDP, Percentage Change from Prior Quarter, Calendar and Seasonally and Working Day Adjusted ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IVQ
2014	0.3	0.1	0.2	0.3
2013	-0.4	0.3	0.2	0.2
2012	-0.1	-0.3	-0.1	-0.4
2011	0.9	0.0	0.0	-0.3
2010	0.4	1.0	0.4	0.5
2009	-2.9	-0.2	0.3	0.5
2008	0.7	-0.4	-0.6	-1.8
2007	0.7	0.7	0.5	0.5
2006	0.9	1.1	0.6	1.1
2005	0.2	0.7	0.7	0.6
2004	0.5	0.6	0.3	0.3
2003	-0.2	0.1	0.5	0.8
2002	0.2	0.5	0.3	0.1
2001	0.9	0.1	0.1	0.1
2000	1.2	1.0	0.5	0.8
1999	0.9	0.7	1.0	1.3

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

Table VD-2 provides percentage change in real GDP in the euro area in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Growth rates were quite strong from 2004 to 2007. There were five consecutive quarters of sharp declines in GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier from IVQ2008 to IVQ2009 with sharp contractions of 5.6 percent in IQ2009, 5.4 percent in IIQ2009 and 4.6 percent in IIIQ2009. Growth rates decline in magnitude with 1.4 percent in IIIQ2011, 0.6 percent in IVQ211 and -0.3 percent in IQ2012 followed by contractions of 0.6 percent in IIQ2012, 0.8 percent in IIIQ2012 and 0.9 percent in IVQ2012. GDP contracted 1.2 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and contracted 0.6 percent in IIQ2013 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP contracted 0.3 percent in IIIQ2013 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 1.1 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.8 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.9 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier.

Table VD-2, Euro Area, Real GDP Percentage Change in a Quarter Relative to Same Quarter a

Year Earlier, Seasonally and Working Day Adjusted ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IV
2014	1.1	0.8	0.8	0.9
2013	-1.2	-0.6	-0.3	0.4
2012	-0.3	-0.6	-0.8	-0.9
2011	2.8	1.8	1.4	0.6
2010	1.0	2.2	2.3	2.3
2009	-5.6	-5.4	-4.6	-2.3
2008	2.3	1.2	0.2	-2.1
2007	3.6	3.2	3.0	2.4
2006	3.0	3.4	3.3	3.8
2005	1.4	1.6	1.9	2.2
2004	1.9	2.3	2.1	1.7
2003	0.7	0.3	0.5	1.2
2002	0.5	0.9	1.2	1.1
2001	3.1	2.2	1.8	1.1
2000	4.2	4.5	3.9	3.4
1999	2.2	2.4	2.9	3.9

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

Table VD-3 provides growth of euro area real GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier not seasonally adjusted. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2013 NSA relative to a year earlier and increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.1 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 0.6 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.5 percent in IIQ2013 relative to a year earlier without seasonal adjustment and declined 1.8 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier without seasonal adjustment. Growth rates in 2006 and 2007 were quite strong followed by sharp declines of 5.6 percent in IQ2009, 5.9 percent in IIQ2009 and 4.4 percent in IQ2009.

Table VD-3, Euro Area, Real GDP Percentage Change in a Quarter Relative to Same Quarter a Year Earlier, Not Seasonally Adjusted ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IV
2014	1.1	0.6	0.8
2013	-1.8	-0.5	0.1	0.3
2012	-0.1	-1.0	-0.9	-1.0
2011	3.0	1.9	1.4	0.2
2010	1.1	2.5	2.3	2.2
2009	-5.6	-5.9	-4.4	-2.1
2008	1.9	1.6	0.6	-2.2
2007	3.5	3.1	3.1	2.5
2006	3.7	2.6	3.1	3.6
2005	1.0	2.1	1.9	1.7
2004	2.2	2.6	2.2	1.9
2003	0.9	0.1	0.4	1.2
2002	0.1	1.1	1.5	1.0
2001	3.0	2.3	1.7	1.4
2000	4.9	4.3	3.4	2.8
1999	2.3	2.6	2.8	3.9

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

Table VD-4 provides GDP growth in IVQ2014 and relative to the same quarter a year earlier with SAWDA (seasonal and working day adjustment) and NSA (not seasonally adjusted) for the euro zone, European Union, Japan and the US. The GDP of the euro zone increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier SWDA and 0.8 percent NSA for IIIQ2014. The GDP of the European Union increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2014, increased 0.9 percent SWDA in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier NSA in IIIQ2014. Growth in IVQ2014 was weak worldwide with somewhat stronger performance by the US but still insufficient to reduce unemployment and underemployment (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/job-creation-and-monetary-policy-twenty.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/01/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html) and motivate hiring (Section I and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/01/exchange-rate-conflicts-squeeze-of.html).

Table VD-4, Euro Zone, European Union, Japan and USA, Real GDP Growth

	∆% IVQ2014/ IIIQ2014 SAWDA	∆% IVQ2014/ IVQ2013 SWDA	∆% IIIQ2014/ IIIQ2013 NSA
Euro Zone	0.3	0.9	0.8
European Union	0.3	0.9	1.5
Germany	0.7	1.5	1.2
France	0.1	0.2	0.2
Netherlands	0.5	1.0	1.0
Finland	-0.3	-0.1	0.1
Belgium	0.1	0.9	1.0
Portugal	0.5	0.7	1.0
Ireland	NA	NA	3.5
Italy	0.0	-0.3	-0.5
Greece	-0.2	1.7	1.9
Spain	0.7	2.0	1.7
United Kingdom	0.5	2.7	3.2
Japan	NA	NA	-1.2
USA	0.7	2.7	NA

*SAWDA: Seasonally and Working Day Adjusted except UK, Japan and USA

***NSA

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

Table VD-5 provides monthly industrial production percentage changes for total production and major segments in the euro area. Total production changed 0.0 percent in Dec 2014 with increase of 2.3 percent in durable goods and decrease of 1.8 percent in energy. Capital goods increased 0.0 percent. Nondurable goods decreased 1.8 percent and intermediate goods increased 1.1 percent. Industrial production increased in all months from Dec 2012 to Jun 2013 with exception of declines of 1.1 percent in May 2013 and 0.4 percent in Mar 2013. Industrial production increased 0.8 percent in Jul 2014, increasing 0.5 percent in Sep 2014, 0.3 percent in Oct 2014 and 0.1 percent in Dec 2014.

Table VD-5, Euro Zone, Industrial Production Month ∆%

	Total	INT	ENE	CG	DUR	NDUR
Dec 2014	0.0	1.1	1.0	0.2	2.3	-1.8
Nov	0.1	0.1	-0.7	-0.3	1.6	0.4
Oct	0.3	0.2	-1.2	0.0	0.9	1.5
Sep	0.5	-0.3	0.2	2.2	-1.4	-0.4
Aug	-1.2	-1.1	1.1	-3.3	-0.6	0.0
Jul	0.8	1.0	-0.9	1.9	-0.8	0.9

Notes: INT: Intermediate; ENE: Energy; CG: Capital Goods; DUR: Durable Consumer Goods; NDUR: Nondurable Consumer Goods

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

Table VD-6 provides monthly and 12-month percentage changes of industrial production and major industrial categories in the euro zone. Some 12-month percentage changes in Table VD-2 are negative in the 12 months ending in Dec 2014 with exception of increase of 0.7 percent in nondurable consumer goods. Industrial production changed 0.0 percent in the month of Dec 2014 and decreased 0.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2014.

Table VD-6, Euro Zone, Industrial Production, Month and 12-Month ∆%

2014	Dec Month ∆%	Dec 12-Month ∆%
Total	0.0	-0.2
Intermediate Goods	1.1	-0.2
Energy	1.0	-1.7
Capital Goods	0.2	-0.3
Durable Consumer Goods	2.3	-0.5
Nondurable Consumer Goods	-1.8	0.7

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

There has been significant decline in percentage changes of industrial production and major categories in 12-month rates into 2012 and 2013 with recovery in 2014, as shown in Table VD-7. Negative percentage changes moderated from the high rates in Oct-Nov 2012 with return to growth. All 12-month percentage changes are negative for the various segments of euro area industrial production from May to Aug 2013 with exception of capital goods in Jun but there is improvement in Sep to Dec 2013 and Jan 2014 with positive 12-month percentage changes for total industry. There is significant improvement in 2014 with growth of 1.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb with deterioration to 0.3 percent in Mar 2014 and rebound of 1.9 percent in Apr 2014. The growth rate of industrial production in 12 months slowed to 0.7 percent in May 2014 and 0.2 percent in Jun 2014. Industrial production increased 1.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2014 and fell 0.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014. Industrial production increased 0.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2014 and 0.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014. Industrial production fell 0.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2014 and decreased 0.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2014. Output of capital goods increased 2.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2014 but only 1.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014, increasing to 1.4 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2014. Output of capital goods grew 0.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2014 and increased 4.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2014. Output of capital goods fell 2.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014, increasing 1.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2014 and 1.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014. Output of capital goods fell 1.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2014 and decreased 0.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2014. Output of intermediate goods increased 0.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2014 and 1.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2014. Output of intermediate goods fell 0.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2014 and fell 0.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014. Output of intermediate goods fell 1.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2014 and decreased 0.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2014.

Table VD-7, Euro Zone, Industrial Production 12-Month ∆%

	Total	INT	ENE	CG	DUR	NDUR
Dec 2014	-0.2	-0.2	-1.7	-0.3	-0.5	0.7
Nov	-0.8	-1.0	-5.5	-1.2	0.1	3.2
Oct	0.6	-0.7	-2.2	1.4	0.1	3.3
Sep	0.1	-0.6	-3.2	1.5	-4.0	1.8
Aug	-0.6	0.1	-2.9	-2.2	-2.1	2.9
Jul	1.7	1.4	-4.3	4.0	-1.8	2.7

Notes: INT: Intermediate; ENE: Energy; CG: Capital Goods; DUR: Durable Consumer Goods; NDUR: Nondurable Consumer Goods

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

VE Germany. Table VE-DE provides yearly growth rates of the German economy from 1971 to 2014, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked. Germany’s GDP fell 5.6 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.1 percent in 2008. Recovery has been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.1 percent in 2010, 3.6 percent in 2011 and 0.4 percent in 2012. Growth decelerated to 0.1 percent in 2013, increasing to 1.5 percent in 2014.

The Federal Statistical Agency of Germany analyzes the fall and recovery of the German economy (http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Content/Statistics/VolkswirtschaftlicheGesamtrechnungen/Inlandsprodukt/Aktuell,templateId=renderPrint.psml):

“The German economy again grew strongly in 2011. The price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.0% compared with the previous year. Accordingly, the catching-up process of the German economy continued during the second year after the economic crisis. In the course of 2011, the price-adjusted GDP again exceeded its pre-crisis level. The economic recovery occurred mainly in the first half of 2011. In 2009, Germany experienced the most serious post-war recession, when GDP suffered a historic decline of 5.1%. The year 2010 was characterised by a rapid economic recovery (+3.7%).”

Table VE-4 provides annual growth rates of the German economy from 1970 to 2014, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked. Germany’s GDP fell 5.6 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.1 percent in 2008. Recovery has been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.1 percent in 2010, 3.6 percent in 2011 and 0.4 percent in 2012. Growth in 2013 was 0.1 percent. The GDP of Germany grew 1.5 percent in 2014.

Table VE-DE, Germany, GDP ∆% on Prior Year

	Price Adjusted Chain-Linked	Price- and Calendar-Adjusted Chain Linked
Average ∆% 1991-2014	1.3
Average ∆% 1991-1999	1.5
Average ∆% 2000-2007	1.4
Average ∆% 2003-2007	2.2
Average ∆% 2007-2014	0.7
Average ∆% 2009-2014	1.9
2014	1.5	1.5
2013	0.1	0.2
2012	0.4	0.6
2011	3.6	3.7
2010	4.1	3.9
2009	-5.6	-5.6
2008	1.1	0.8
2007	3.3	3.4
2006	3.7	3.9
2005	0.7	0.9
2004	1.2	0.7
2003	-0.7	-0.7
2002	0.0	0.0
2001	1.7	1.8
2000	3.0	3.2
1999	2.0	1.9
1998	2.0	1.7
1997	1.8	1.9
1996	0.8	0.8
1995	1.7	1.8
1994	2.5	2.5
1993	-1.0	-1.0
1992	1.9	1.5
1991	5.1	5.2
1990	5.3	5.5
1989	3.9	4.0
1988	3.7	3.4
1987	1.4	1.3
1986	2.3	2.3
1985	2.3	2.3
1984	2.8	2.9
1983	1.6	1.5
1982	-0.4	-0.5
1981	0.5	0.6
1980	1.4	1.3
1979	4.2	4.3
1978	3.0	3.1
1977	3.3	3.5
1976	4.9	4.5
1975	-0.9	-0.9
1974	0.9	1.0
1973	4.8	5.0
1972	4.3	4.3
1971	3.1	3.0
1970	NA	NA

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/NationalAccounts.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/DomesticProduct/CurrentRevision.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Methods/NationalAccountRevision/Revision2014_BackgroundPaper.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/02/PE14_048_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/08/PE13_278_811.html https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/11/PE13_381_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/01/PE14_016_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/DE/PresseService/Presse/Pressekonferenzen/2014/BIP2013/Pressebroschuere_BIP2013.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/05/PE14_167_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/09/PE14_306_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/11/PE14_401_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_048_811.html

The Flash Germany Composite Output Index of the Markit Flash Germany PMI^®, combining manufacturing and services, increased from 52.0 in Dec to 52.6 in Jan. The index of manufacturing output reached 52.3 in Jan, increasing from 51.8 in Dec, while the index of services increased to 52.7 in Dec from 52.1 in Dec. The overall Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI^® decreased from 51.2 in Dec to 51.0 in Jan (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b36bd29c628047739c3e404c195963a5). New orders in manufacturing contracted. Oliver Kolodseike, Economist at Markit, finds improving GDP growth (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b36bd29c628047739c3e404c195963a5). The Markit Germany Composite Output Index of the Markit Germany Services PMI^®, combining manufacturing and services with close association with Germany’s GDP, increased from 52.0 in Dec to 53.5 in Jan (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4439591371004e5b81a173ab5a27e9dd). Oliver Kolodseike, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds improvement in 2015 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4439591371004e5b81a173ab5a27e9dd). The Germany Services Business Activity Index increased from 52.1 in Dec to 53.5 in Jan (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4439591371004e5b81a173ab5a27e9dd). The Markit/BME Germany Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®), showing close association with Germany’s manufacturing conditions, decreased from 51.2 in Dec to 50.9 in Jan (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d01543f85bbb4426968a22857f762717). New export orders decreased. Oliver Kolodseike, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds improvement of manufacturing still at a low level (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d01543f85bbb4426968a22857f762717). Table DE provides the country data table for Germany.

Table DE, Germany, Economic Indicators

GDP	IVQ2014 0.7 ∆%; IV/Q2014/IVQ2013 ∆% 1.6 2013/2012: 0.1% GDP ∆% 1970-2013 Blog 8/26/12 5/27/12 11/25/12 2/24/13 5/19/13 5/26/13 8/18/13 8/25/13 11/17/13 11/24/13 1/26/14 2/16/14 3/2/14 5/18/14 5/25/14 8/17/14 9/7/14 11/16/14 11/30/14 2/15/15
Consumer Price Index	Jan month NSA ∆%: -1.1 Jan 12-month NSA ∆%: 0.4 Blog 2/15/15
Producer Price Index	Dec month ∆%: -0.7 NSA, minus 0.5 CSA 12-month NSA ∆%: -1.7 Blog 1/25/15
Industrial Production	MFG Dec month CSA ∆%: 0.5 12-month NSA: 2.5 Blog 2/15/15
Machine Orders	MFG Dec month ∆%: 4.2 Dec 12-month ∆%: 5.6 Blog 2/8/15
Retail Sales	Dec Month ∆% 0.2 12-Month ∆% 4.0 Blog 2/1/15
Employment Report	Unemployment Rate SA Dec 4.8% Blog 2/1/15
Trade Balance	Exports Dec 12-month NSA ∆%: 10.0 Imports Dec 12 months NSA ∆%: 4.0 Exports Dec month CSA ∆%: 3.4; Imports Dec month CSA minus 0.8 Blog 2/15/15

Links to blog comments in Table DE:

2/8/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/job-creation-and-monetary-policy-twenty.html

2/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html

1/25/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/01/competitive-currency-conflicts-world.html

11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

9/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/competitive-monetary-policy-and.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

1/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/01/capital-flows-exchange-rates-and.html

11/24/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html

8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

Table VE-1 provides percentage change of Germany’s GDP in one quarter relative to the prior quarter from 2001 to 2014. Germany’s GDP contracted during four consecutive quarters from IIQ2008 to IQ2009. The deepest contraction was 4.5 percent in IQ2009. Growth was quite strong from IIIQ2009 to IQ2011 for cumulative growth of 7.8 percent in seven quarters or at the average rate of 1.1 percent per quarter, which is equivalent to 4.4 percent per year. Economic growth decelerated in IIQ2011 to 0.2 percent and 0.4 percent in IIIQ2011. The economy grew 0.0 percent in IVQ2011 and grew 0.3 percent in IQ2012 but at 0.1 percent in IIQ2012. GDP growth in IIIQ2012 was 0.1 percent relative to IIQ2012. Germany’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IIIQ2012. GDP decreased 0.4 percent in IQ2013 and increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2013. Growth of GDP was 0.3 percent in IIIQ2013 and 0.4 percent in IVQ2013. Germany’s growth was robust at 0.8 percent in IQ2014 or 3.2 percent in annual equivalent. GDP contracted 0.1 percent in IIQ2014. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014. The GDP of Germany increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2014.

Table VE-1, Germany Quarter GDP ∆% Relative to Prior Quarter, Seasonally and Calendar Adjusted 

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IV
2014	0.8	-0.1	0.1	0.7
2013	-0.4	0.8	0.3	0.4
2012	0.3	0.1	0.1	-0.4
2011	1.8	0.2	0.4	0.0
2010	0.8	2.1	0.8	0.7
2009	-4.5	0.1	0.5	0.9
2008	0.8	-0.2	-0.4	-2.0
2007	0.5	0.7	0.8	0.3
2006	1.0	1.6	1.0	1.3
2005	-0.2	0.7	0.8	0.3
2004	0.0	0.4	-0.2	0.1
2003	-1.2	0.1	0.5	0.3
2002	-0.3	0.2	0.5	-0.2
2001	1.6	0.1	-0.3	0.2

Seasonal and calendar adjusted Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_048_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Publications/Specialized/Nationalaccounts/NationalAccounts.html

Table VE-2 provides percentage changes of Germany’s GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Growth was weak in the recovery from the recession of 2001 through 2005, as in most of the euro area (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 116-46). Germany’s economy then grew robustly in 2006 and 2007 until the global recession after 2007. Germany recovered with strong growth in 2010 and vigorous 6.0 percent in IQ2011. The economy decelerated in the final three quarters of 2011, growing 1.5 percent in IQ2012 relative to IQ2011. Growth decelerated further to 0.3 percent in IIQ2012 without calendar adjustment and 0.7 percent with calendar adjustment and to 0.1 percent in IIIQ2012. Growth in IVQ2012 relative to IVQ2011 was minus 0.3 percent. GDP fell 1.8 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIIQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 1.0 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 2.6 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.0 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.2 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.6 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier.

Table VE-2, Germany, Quarter GDP ∆% Relative to Same Quarter a Year Earlier, Price Adjusted NCSA 

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IV
2014	2.6	1.0	1.2	1.6
2013	-1.8	0.5	0.8	1.0
2012	1.5	0.3	0.1	-0.3
2011	6.0	3.6	3.1	1.8
2010	2.6	4.7	4.6	4.4
2009	-6.6	-7.9	-5.6	-2.4
2008	2.0	3.0	1.1	-1.9
2007	4.3	3.4	3.3	2.1
2006	4.3	2.4	3.5	4.6
2005	-0.7	1.3	1.3	1.0
2004	1.6	1.6	0.6	0.9
2003	-0.4	-1.3	-0.8	-0.3
2002	-1.1	0.2	1.1	-0.1
2001	2.4	1.6	1.5	1.4

Price adjusted NSA Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_048_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Publications/Specialized/Nationalaccounts/NationalAccounts.html

There are strong calendar effects in economic activity in Germany. Table VE-3 provides Germany’s percentage change in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier adjusting for price changes and calendar effects. Germany’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2012 calendar-adjusted in contrast with only 0.3 percent without calendar adjustment. GDP growth adjusting for calendar effects was 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012 relative to IIIQ2011 and 0.1 percent without calendar adjustment. Growth in IVQ2012 was 0.1 percent calendar and price adjusted in contrast with minus 0.3 percent without calendar adjustment. Growth in IQ2013 was minus 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier with adjustment for calendar effects and minus 1.8 percent without adjustment. GDP without calendar adjustment increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 0.0 percent with calendar adjustment. In IIIQ2013, growth without calendar adjustment was 0.8 percent in contrast with 0.3 percent calendar adjusted. In IVQ2013, GDP with calendar adjustment increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier and 1.0 percent without calendar adjustment. In IQ2014, GDP increased 2.6 percent without calendar adjustment and 2.4 percent with calendar adjustment. GDP increased 1.4 percent in IIQ2014 with calendar adjustment and 1.0 percent without calendar adjustment. GDP increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier in IIIQ2014 without calendar adjustment and 1.2 percent with calendar adjustment. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier without calendar adjustment and 1.4 percent with calendar adjustment.

Table VE-3, Germany, Quarter GDP ∆% Relative to Same Quarter a Year Earlier, Calendar and Price Adjusted NSA 

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IV
2014	2.4	1.4	1.2	1.4
2013	-0.5	0.0	0.3	1.1
2012	1.0	0.7	0.5	0.1
2011	5.5	3.6	3.1	2.7
2010	2.6	4.2	4.6	4.0

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_048_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Publications/Specialized/Nationalaccounts/NationalAccounts.html

Table VE-4 provides annual growth rates of the German economy from 1970 to 2014, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked. Germany’s GDP fell 5.6 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.1 percent in 2008. Recovery has been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.1 percent in 2010, 3.6 percent in 2011 and 0.4 percent in 2012. Growth in 2013 was 0.1 percent. Germany’s GDP increased 1.5 percent in 2014.

Table VE-4, Germany, GDP ∆% on Prior Year

	Price Adjusted Chain-Linked	Price- and Calendar-Adjusted Chain Linked
Average ∆% 1991-2014	1.3
Average ∆% 1991-1999	1.5
Average ∆% 2000-2007	1.4
Average ∆% 2003-2007	2.2
Average ∆% 2007-2014	0.7
Average ∆% 2009-2014	1.9
2014	1.5	1.5
2013	0.1	0.2
2012	0.4	0.6
2011	3.6	3.7
2010	4.1	3.9
2009	-5.6	-5.6
2008	1.1	0.8
2007	3.3	3.4
2006	3.7	3.9
2005	0.7	0.9
2004	1.2	0.7
2003	-0.7	-0.7
2002	0.0	0.0
2001	1.7	1.8
2000	3.0	3.2
1999	2.0	1.9
1998	2.0	1.7
1997	1.8	1.9
1996	0.8	0.8
1995	1.7	1.8
1994	2.5	2.5
1993	-1.0	-1.0
1992	1.9	1.5
1991	5.1	5.2
1990	5.3	5.5
1989	3.9	4.0
1988	3.7	3.4
1987	1.4	1.3
1986	2.3	2.3
1985	2.3	2.3
1984	2.8	2.9
1983	1.6	1.5
1982	-0.4	-0.5
1981	0.5	0.6
1980	1.4	1.3
1979	4.2	4.3
1978	3.0	3.1
1977	3.3	3.5
1976	4.9	4.5
1975	-0.9	-0.9
1974	0.9	1.0
1973	4.8	5.0
1972	4.3	4.3
1971	3.1	3.0
1970	NA	NA

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/NationalAccounts.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/DomesticProduct/CurrentRevision.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Methods/NationalAccountRevision/Revision2014_BackgroundPaper.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/02/PE14_048_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/08/PE13_278_811.html https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/11/PE13_381_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/01/PE14_016_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/DE/PresseService/Presse/Pressekonferenzen/2014/BIP2013/Pressebroschuere_BIP2013.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/05/PE14_167_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/09/PE14_306_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/11/PE14_401_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_048_811.html

Chart VE-1 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Federal Statistics Agency of Germany) provides GDP at current prices from 2005 to 2014. The German economy is productive with significant dynamism over the long term. There are fluctuations in an increasing trend since 2009. Growth is oscillating.

Chart VE-1, Germany, GDP, Current Prices, Billion Euro

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Table VE-1A provides US GDP in current prices at seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) from 2005 to 2014. There is sharp decline with the recession beginning in IVQ2007 and upward trend during the expansion after IIIQ2009.

Chart VE-1A, US, Gross Domestic Product, Current Prices, Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates, Billions of Dollars, 2005-2014

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis

http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm

Chart VE-2 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Federal Statistics Agency of Germany) provides the index of price-adjusted chain-linked GDP of Germany from 2009 to 2014. Germany was growing rapidly before the global contraction and rebounded with significant strength along a strong upward trend that could be increasing again.

Chart VE-2A, US, Real Gross Domestic Product, Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates, Billions of Chained 2009 Dollars, 2010-2014

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm

Chart VE-2A provides US real GDP, seasonally adjusted at annual rates (SAAR) in billions of chained dollars of 2009 from 2010 to 2014. US economic growth has been at only 2.4 percent on average in the cyclical expansion in the 22 quarters from IIIQ2009 to IVQ2014. Boskin (2010Sep) measures that the US economy grew at 6.2 percent in the first four quarters and 4.5 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the second quarter of 1975; and at 7.7 percent in the first four quarters and 5.8 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the first quarter of 1983 (Professor Michael J. Boskin, Summer of Discontent, Wall Street Journal, Sep 2, 2010 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882304575465462926649950.html). There are new calculations using the revision of US GDP and personal income data since 1929 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (http://bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) and the first estimate of GDP for IVQ2014 (http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2015/pdf/gdp4q14_adv.pdf). The average of 7.7 percent in the first four quarters of major cyclical expansions is in contrast with the rate of growth in the first four quarters of the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010 of only 2.7 percent obtained by diving GDP of $14,745.9 billion in IIQ2010 by GDP of $14,355.6 billion in IIQ2009 {[$14,745.9/$14,355.6 -1]100 = 2.7%], or accumulating the quarter on quarter growth rates (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html). The expansion from IQ1983 to IVQ1985 was at the average annual growth rate of 5.9 percent, 5.4 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1986, 5.2 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1986, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1988 and at 7.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html). The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IVQ2014 would have accumulated to 23.0 percent. GDP in IVQ2014 would be $18,438.0 billion (in constant dollars of 2009) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $2,126.4 billion than actual $16,311.6 billion. There are about two trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 28.3 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment of 17.1 percent of the effective labor force (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/job-creation-and-monetary-policy-twenty.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/01/fluctuating-valuations-of-risk.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/financial-risks-twenty-six-million.html). US GDP in IVQ2014 is 11.5 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $14,991.8 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $16,311.6 billion in IVQ2014 or 8.8 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.2 percent. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. The long-term trend is growth at average 3.3 percent per year from Jan 1919 to Dec 2014. Growth at 3.3 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output from 99.2392 in Dec 2007 to 124.5620 in Dec 2014. The actual index NSA in Dec 2014 is 101.2840, which is 18.7 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 2.4 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2014, raising the index at trend to 117.1610 in Dec 2014. The output of manufacturing at 101.2840 in Dec 2014 is 13.6 percent below trend under this alternative calculation.

Chart VE-2A, US, Real Gross Domestic Product, Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates, Billions of Chained 2009 Dollars, 2010-2014

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm

Table VE-8 provides the savings as percent of disposable income and percentage growth of disposable income year-on-year from 2010 to 2014. The savings ratio remained at a relatively high level for an advanced economy, exceeding 9.0 percent from 2010 to 2013. The savings ratio increased to 12.5 percent in IQ2014 and fell to 8.8 percent in IIQ2014 and 7.9 percent in IIIQ2014.

Table VE-8, Germany, Savings as Percent of Disposable Income and Yearly Change of Disposable Income, % and ∆%

	Savings as % Percent of Disposable Income	Year on Year ∆% of Disposable Income
IIIQ2014	7.9	2.4
IIQ2014	8.8	2.1
IQ2014	12.5	2.1
2013	9.1	1.8
2012	9.4	2.0
2011	9.6	3.8
2010	9.9	2.7

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/11/PE14_416_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Publications/Specialized/Nationalaccounts/NationalAccounts.html

Chart IB-14A provides the US personal savings rate, or personal savings as percent of disposable personal income, on an annual basis from 1929 to 2013. The US savings rate shows decline from around 10 percent in the 1960s to around 5 percent currently.

Chart IB-14A, US, Personal Savings as a Percentage of Disposable Personal Income, Annual, 1929-2014

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm

Table IB-7 provides personal savings as percent of disposable income and annual change of real disposable personal income in selected years since 1930. Savings fell from 4.4 percent of disposable personal income in 1930 to minus 0.8 percent in 1933 while real disposable income contracted 6.3 percent in 1930 and 2.9 percent in 1933. Savings as percent of disposable personal income swelled during World War II to 27.9 percent in 1944 with increase of real disposable income of 3.1 percent. Savings as percent of personal disposable income fell steadily over decades from 11.5 percent in 1982 to 2.5 percent in 2005. Savings as percent of disposable personal income was 4.9 percent in 2013 while real disposable income fell 0.2 percent. The savings rate was 4.8 percent of GDP in 2014 with growth of real disposable income of 2.4 percent. The average ratio of savings as percent of disposable income fell from 9.3 percent 1980 to 1989 to 5.3 percent on average from 2007 to 2014. Real disposable income grew on average at 3.5 percent from 1980 to 1989 and at 1.5 percent on average from 2007 to 2014.

Table IB-7, US, Personal Savings as Percent of Disposable Personal Income, Annual, Selected Years 1929-1913

	Personal Savings as Percent of Disposable Personal Income	Annual Change of Real Disposable Personal Income
1930	4.4	-6.3
1933	-0.8	-2.9
1944	27.9	3.1
1947	6.3	-4.1
1954	10.3	1.4
1958	11.4	1.1
1960	10.0	2.6
1970	12.6	4.6
1975	13.0	2.5
1982	11.5	2.1
1989	7.8	3.0
1992	8.9	4.3
2002	5.0	3.1
2003	4.8	2.7
2004	4.6	3.6
2005	2.5	1.5
2006	3.3	4.0
2007	3.0	2.1
2008	4.9	1.5
2009	6.1	-0.4
2010	5.6	1.0
2011	6.0	2.5
2012	7.2	3.0
2013	4.9	-0.2
2014	4.8	2.4
Average Savings Ratio
1980-1989	9.3
2007-2014	5.3
Average Yearly ∆% Real Disposable Income
1980-1989		3.5
2007-2014		1.5

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm

Chart IB-15, US, Personal Savings as a Percentage of Disposable Income, Monthly 2007-2014

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm

Chart IB-15 of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis provides personal savings as percent of personal disposable income, or savings ratio, from Jan 2007 to Nov 2014. The uncertainties caused by the global recession resulted in sharp increase in the savings ratio that peaked at 7.9 percent in May 2008 (http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). The second peak occurred at 8.1 percent in May 2009. There was another rising trend until 5.9 percent in Jun 2010 and then steady downward trend until 5.6 percent in Nov 2011. This was followed by an upward trend with 7.1 percent in Jun 2012 but decline to 6.4 percent in Aug 2012 followed by jump to 10.5 percent in Dec 2012. Swelling realization of income in Oct-Dec 2012 in anticipation of tax increases in Jan 2013 caused the jump of the savings rate to 10.5 percent in Dec 2012. The BEA explains as “Personal income in November and December was boosted by accelerated and special dividend payments to persons and by accelerated bonus payments and other irregular pay in private wages and salaries in anticipation of changes in individual income tax rates. Personal income in December was also boosted by lump-sum social security benefit payments” (page 2 at http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/2013/pdf/pi1212.pdf). There was a reverse effect in Jan 2013 with decline of the savings rate to 4.5 percent. Real disposable personal income fell 5.1 percent and real disposable per capita income fell from $38,175 in Dec 2012 to $36,195 in Jan 2013 or by 5.2 percent, which is explained by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as follows (page 3 http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/2013/pdf/pi0213.pdf):

“Contributions for government social insurance -- a subtraction in calculating personal income --increased $6.4 billion in February, compared with an increase of $126.8 billion in January. The

January estimate reflected increases in both employer and employee contributions for government social insurance. The January estimate of employee contributions for government social insurance reflected the expiration of the “payroll tax holiday,” that increased the social security contribution rate for employees and self-employed workers by 2.0 percentage points, or $114.1 billion at an annual rate. For additional information, see FAQ on “How did the expiration of the payroll tax holiday affect personal income for January 2013?” at www.bea.gov. The January estimate of employee contributions for government social insurance also reflected an increase in the monthly premiums paid by participants in the supplementary medical insurance program, in the hospital insurance provisions of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, and in the social security taxable wage base; together, these changes added $12.9 billion to January. Employer contributions were boosted $5.9 billion in January, which reflected increases in the social security taxable wage base (from $110,100 to $113,700), in the tax rates paid by employers to state unemployment insurance, and in employer contributions for the federal unemployment tax and for pension guaranty. The total contribution of special factors to the January change in contributions for government social insurance was $132.9 billion.”

Table IB-8, US, Savings Ratio and Real Disposable Income, % and ∆%

	Personal Saving as % Disposable Income	RDPI ∆% 12/07	RDPI ∆% Month	RDPI ∆% YOY
May 2008	7.9	5.1	4.8	5.7
May 2009	8.1	2.5	1.6	-2.5
Jun 2010	5.9	1.8	0.0	1.0
Nov 2011	5.6	4.2	-0.1	1.5
Jun 2012	7.1	6.9	0.1	2.7
Aug 2012	6.4	6.5	-0.2	1.9
Dec 2012	10.5	12.3	2.8	7.0
Jan 2013	4.5	5.6	-5.9	-0.1
Feb 2013	4.7	6.2	0.5	-0.2
Mar 2013	4.9	6.5	0.4	0.0
Apr 2013	5.1	6.8	0.2	0.0
May 2013	5.2	7.2	0.4	0.4
Jun 2013	5.3	7.4	0.2	0.4
Jul 2013	5.1	7.3	-0.1	0.6
Aug 2013	5.3	7.7	0.4	1.1
Sep 2013	5.2	8.0	0.3	0.9
Oct 2013	4.7	7.7	-0.3	0.0
Nov 2013	4.3	7.8	0.1	-1.3
Dec 2013	4.1	7.6	-0.2	-4.2
Jan 2014	4.9	8.1	0.5	2.3
Feb 2014	5.0	8.6	0.4	2.3
Mar 2014	4.8	9.1	0.5	2.4
Apr 2014	5.0	9.2	0.1	2.3
May 2014	5.1	9.4	0.2	2.1
Jun 2014	5.1	9.7	0.2	2.1
Jul 2014	5.0	9.7	0.1	2.3
Aug 2014	4.7	10.1	0.3	2.2
Sep 2014	4.5	10.2	0.1	2.0
Oct 2014	4.5	10.5	0.3	2.6
Nov 2014	4.3	11.0	0.4	2.9
Dec 2014	4.9	11.5	0.5	3.7

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm

There is significantly stronger performance of production in Germany with wide monthly fluctuations. The production industries index of Germany in Table VE-1A shows increase of 0.2 percent in Dec 2012 and decrease of 9.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2012. The index decreased 0.5 percent in Jan 2013 and 1.3 percent in 12 months and increased 0.7 percent in Feb 2013, declining 4.9 percent in 12 months. In Mar 2013, the production index of Germany increased 0.9 percent and fell 8.5 percent in 12 months. The production index jumped 0.9 percent in Apr 2013 and 7.5 percent in 12 months. In May 2013, the production index fell 1.1 percent and 4.4 percent in 12 months. The production index of Germany increased 1.9 percent in Jun 2013 and fell 0.4 percent in 12 months. In Jul 2013, the production industries index fell 1.3 percent and increased 1.9 percent in 12 months. The production industries index increased 2.1 percent in Aug 2013 and fell 2.8 percent in 12 months. In Sep 2013, the production index fell 0.8 percent and increased 4.2 percent in 12 months. In Oct 2013, the production index of Germany fell 0.7 percent and increased 1.3 percent in 12 months. The index of production industries increased 1.8 percent in Nov 2013 and 0.4 percent in 12 months. The index of production industries increased 0.1 percent in Dec 2013 and increased 5.9 percent in 12 months. The production industries index increased 0.4 percent in Jan 2014 and 3.3 percent in 12 months. In Feb 2014, the production industries index increased 0.4 percent and 5.8 percent in 12 months. The production industries index fell 0.5 percent in Mar 2014 and increased 4.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The production industries index of Germany changed 0.0 percent in Apr 2014 and fell 1.6 percent in 12 months. The production index fell 1.4 percent in May 2014, increasing 4.0 percent in 12 months. The production index of Germany increased 0.5 percent in Jun 2014 and fell 2.2 percent in 12 months. In Jul 2014, the production industries index of Germany increased 1.2 percent and 3.0 percent in 12 months. The production index of Germany fell 2.6 percent in Aug 2014 and decreased 4.9 percent in 12 months. The production index of Germany increased 1.0 percent in Sep 2014 and 3.6 percent in 12 months. In Oct 2014, the production index of Germany increased 0.6 percent and 1.2 percent in 12 months. The production industries index of Germany fell 0.1 percent in Nov 2014 and decreased 1.4 percent in 12 months. The index of production industries of Germany increased 0.1 percent in Dec 2014 and 1.7 percent in 12 months. Germany’s production industries suffered decline of 7.3 percent in Dec 2008 relative to Dec 2007 and decline of 2.3 percent in 2009. Recovery was vigorous with 17.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2010. The first quarter of 2011 was quite strong when the German economy outperformed the other advanced economies. The performance of Germany’s production industries from 2002 to 2006 was vigorous with average rate of 4.5 percent. Data for the production industries index of Germany fluctuate sharply from month to month and in 12-month rates.

Table VE-1A, Germany, Production Industries, Month and 12-Month ∆%

	12-Month ∆% NSA	Month ∆% Calendar SA
Dec 2014	1.7	0.1
Nov	-1.4	0.1
Oct	1.2	0.6
Sep	3.6	1.0
Aug	-4.9	-2.6
Jul	3.0	1.2
Jun	-2.2	0.5
May	4.0	-1.4
Apr	-1.6	0.0
Mar	4.8	-0.5
Feb	5.8	0.4
Jan	3.3	0.4
Dec 2013	5.9	0.1
Nov	0.4	1.8
Oct	1.3	-0.7
Sep	4.2	-0.8
Aug	-2.8	2.1
Jul	1.9	-1.3
Jun	-0.4	1.9
May	-4.4	-1.1
Apr	7.5	0.9
Mar	-8.5	0.9
Feb	-4.9	0.7
Jan	-1.3	-0.5
Dec 2012	-9.4	0.2
Nov	-2.9	-0.7
Oct	4.1	-1.3
Sep	-6.7	-1.2
Aug	-0.6	0.0
Jul	2.4	0.8
Jun	4.2	-0.9
May	-6.3	1.6
Apr	-0.6	-2.1
Mar	-0.1	2.2
Feb	2.4	-0.5
Jan	4.8	0.9
Dec 2011	2.0	-1.8
Nov	3.9	-0.3
Oct	0.1	1.3
Sep	4.5	-1.8
Aug	10.2	-0.5
Jul	5.8	2.9
Jun	-0.8	-1.6
May	18.2	0.8
Apr	5.3	0.2
Mar	9.8	0.5
Feb	15.8	1.2
Jan	15.1	1.2
Dec 2010	17.1
Dec 2009	-2.3
Dec 2008	-7.3
Dec 2007	-0.1
Dec 2006	2.5
Dec 2005	4.9
Dec 2004	5.3
Dec 2003	5.1
Dec 2002	2.0
Dec 2001	-8.8
Dec 2000	0.2
Dec 1999	6.4
Average ∆% per Year
Dec 1995 to Dec 2014	1.5
Dec 1995 to Dec 2000	2.7
Dec 1995 to Dec 2006	2.2
Dec 2002 to Dec 2006	4.5

Source: Statistiche Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Table VE-2A provides monthly percentage changes of the German production industries index by components from May to Dec 2014. The index increased 0.1 percent in Dec 2014 with decrease of 1.2 percent in capital goods and increase of 0.8 percent in energy. There was increase of 0.5 percent in manufacturing and increase of 2.0 percent in intermediate goods. The index increased 0.1 percent in Nov 2014 with increases in all segments, except decrease of 2.4 percent in energy. The index increased 0.6 percent in Oct with increase in all segments with exception of no change in capital goods. The index increased 1.0 percent in Sep 2014 with all segments increasing with exception of decrease of 1.7 percent for nondurable goods.

Table VE-2A, Germany, Production Industries, Industry and Components, Month ∆%

	Dec  2014	Nov	Oct	Sep	Aug	Jul	Jun	May
Production Industries	0.1	0.1	0.6	1.0	-2.6	1.2	0.5	-1.4
Industry	0.5	0.4	0.5	1.2	-3.2	1.6	0.5	-1.3
Mfg	0.5	0.4	0.5	1.1	-3.1	1.6	0.4	-1.4
Intermediate Goods	2.0	0.2	0.6	0.0	-1.5	0.7	0.5	-2.3
Capital Goods	-1.2	0.5	0.0	3.4	-5.8	3.1	-0.2	0.4
Durable Goods	5.8	2.3	0.3	0.1	-3.5	-0.2	2.2	-1.1
Nondurable Goods	0.4	0.2	1.2	-1.7	0.8	-0.1	1.8	-3.8
Energy	0.8	-2.4	0.9	2.6	1.4	-2.0	0.1	0.5

Seasonally Calendar Adjusted

Source: Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Table VE-3A provides 12-month unadjusted percentage changes of industry and components in Germany. There were percentage declines of 12-month rates in the production index of Germany and all segments in the four months from Dec 2012 to Mar 2013 with exception of nondurables in Jan 2013 and energy in Jan and Mar 2013. There is sharp recovery in Apr 2013 with growth of manufacturing by 7.9 percent and capital goods by 11.1 percent. All segments show declines in 12 months in May 2013. There are increases in the 12 months ending in Jun of 1.2 percent in capital goods and 2.8 percent in durable goods. All segments increased in Jul 2013. All segments fell in Aug 2013 with sharp declines. There is strong recovery in Sep with high rates of increase. Many segments increased in the 12 months ending in Oct 2013 with 1.7 percent growth in manufacturing and 2.0 percent in capital goods. Most segments increased in Nov 2013 with 1.1 percent in manufacturing and 1.9 percent in capital goods. All segments increased in Dec 2013 with exception of energy. Most segments increased in Jan 2014 with exception of declines for durable goods and energy. All segments increased in Feb 2014 with exception of energy. All segments increased in Mar 2014 with exception of energy. All segments decreased in Apr 2014 with exception of intermediate goods and nondurable goods. All segments increased in May 2014 with exception of energy. All segments fell in Jun 2014 with exception of nondurable goods. All segments increased in Jul 2014 with exception of energy and durable goods. All segments declined in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014. All segments increased in the 12 months ending in Sep 2014 with exception of energy. All segments increased in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014 with exception of energy and intermediate goods. All segments decreased in Nov 2014. All segments increased in Dec 2014. All Percentage declines in 12 months are quite sharp in Dec 2012 with many percentage changes negative around two-digits. Although there are sharp fluctuations in the data, there is suggestion of deceleration that would be expected from much higher earlier rates. The deceleration is quite evident in single-digit percentage changes from Sep 2011 to Dec 2012 relative to high double-digit percentage changes in Jan-Mar 2011. There are multiple negative 12-month percentage changes across many segments. Growth rates in the recovery from the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009 were initially very vigorous in comparison with the growth rates before the contraction that are shown in the bottom part of Table VE-3A.

Table VE-3A, Germany, Industry and Components, 12-Month ∆% Unadjusted

	IND	MFG	INTG	CG	DG	NDG	EN
2014
Dec	2.5	2.5	3.1	1.7	8.0	2.3	0.4
Nov	-1.3	-1.3	-1.6	-1.4	-1.0	-0.4	-2.4
Oct	1.5	1.5	-0.2	3.0	0.7	1.5	-1.2
Sep	4.3	4.4	3.1	5.8	1.3	3.9	-2.9
Aug	-4.9	-4.7	-2.5	-8.2	-6.3	-0.6	-5.7
Jul	4.6	4.5	2.0	8.0	-0.3	2.2	-7.1
Jun	-1.8	-1.9	-1.4	-2.4	-6.3	0.6	-5.8
May	4.8	4.7	2.7	7.5	6.6	1.9	-2.4
Apr	-1.1	-0.8	0.9	-3.3	-4.2	1.8	-6.7
Mar	5.3	5.2	5.0	5.8	4.9	4.8	-9.3
Feb	5.9	5.9	6.5	5.9	4.4	4.7	-5.2
Jan	3.4	3.3	2.4	5.5	-1.4	1.3	-2.4
2013
Dec	6.2	6.1	7.1	6.4	5.2	4.2	-0.1
Nov	1.1	1.1	0.6	1.9	-0.4	0.5	-1.6
Oct	1.8	1.7	2.3	2.0	-0.4	0.0	-0.3
Sep	4.7	4.6	4.0	5.8	6.1	2.5	0.8
Aug	-2.9	-3.0	-4.0	-1.8	-7.5	-2.4	-3.1
Jul	1.6	1.6	2.1	0.5	4.1	3.5	0.7
Jun	-0.1	0.0	-1.6	1.2	2.8	-1.1	-1.6
May	-4.5	-4.4	-3.6	-5.9	-10.2	-0.9	-4.6
Apr	8.1	7.9	4.3	11.1	9.3	8.9	0.4
Mar	-8.4	-8.3	-7.3	-9.6	-9.0	-7.0	2.4
Feb	-5.1	-5.2	-5.7	-5.4	-6.1	-2.3	-8.9
Jan	-1.2	-1.1	-1.3	-2.7	-2.8	3.8	0.1
2012
Dec	-9.6	-9.4	-11.8	-8.5	-12.5	-7.0	-2.4
Nov	-3.1	-3.1	-3.9	-2.7	-7.6	-1.2	0.7
Oct	3.9	3.8	2.8	4.0	0.7	7.0	3.2
Sep	-7.6	-7.5	-8.8	-7.1	-11.2	-5.2	4.0
Aug	-1.1	-1.0	-3.2	0.3	0.4	0.7	4.5
Jul	2.0	2.0	0.3	4.6	-2.4	-0.7	2.2
Jun	3.8	3.7	1.9	6.5	7.2	0.3	6.7
May	-7.0	-6.8	-7.5	-6.1	-10.6	-7.7	4.0
Apr	-1.1	-1.1	-2.0	1.9	-5.3	-5.9	3.7
Mar	-0.5	-0.4	-3.1	2.8	-6.2	-2.3	-0.8
Feb	3.2	3.3	0.9	7.3	-0.1	-2.3	5.9
Jan	5.6	5.6	3.0	10.4	4.7	0.1	-3.3
2011
Dec	1.5	1.4	1.8	1.3	0.2	1.4	-9.2
Nov	4.6	4.5	2.9	8.1	2.3	-1.0	-5.8
Oct	0.6	0.7	-0.3	3.2	-2.3	-3.4	-6.1
Sep	5.7	5.7	4.6	9.2	3.4	-0.8	-6.1
Aug	12.4	12.2	9.3	20.4	4.8	1.4	-3.0
Jul	7.9	7.8	5.0	13.7	6.8	0.1	-5.7
Jun	0.5	0.5	0.2	2.3	-10.2	-2.1	-4.7
May	21.5	21.2	17.9	28.3	20.8	12.8	-7.3
Apr	7.5	7.5	6.1	11.1	4.6	1.6	-5.5
Mar	11.2	11.2	10.8	15.0	8.6	2.0	2.8
Feb	17.3	17.1	16.3	23.1	10.1	6.3	-0.4
Jan	17.2	16.9	17.5	23.1	9.9	3.6	-2.6
2010
Dec	17.6	17.6	14.8	25.9	8.5	1.7	2.6
Nov	13.9	13.9	12.9	19.2	7.7	3.9	3.5
Oct	9.9	9.9	9.7	14.0	6.3	0.8	2.5
Sep	9.8	9.5	12.2	10.1	8.3	2.6	2.1
Aug	16.9	17.0	19.3	19.9	18.3	6.9	1.3
Jul	9.0	8.9	13.2	8.7	7.4	0.8	1.9
Jun	16.4	16.2	20.8	16.1	19.7	5.1	-2.8
May	13.1	13.3	20.0	12.0	11.2	1.4	11.1
Apr	14.9	14.9	21.7	15.5	8.8	0.2	9.4
Mar	14.3	14.5	20.4	12.3	11.8	5.8	4.2
Feb	6.8	7.4	10.6	6.5	7.9	-1.0	3.7
Jan	0.4	0.9	6.3	-3.8	0.8	-3.0	0.8
Dec 2010	17.6	17.6	14.8	25.9	8.5	1.7	2.6
Dec 2009	-3.2	-3.1	3.3	-9.9	-0.1	1.1	3.7
Dec 2008	-7.6	-7.4	-14.3	-5.4	-11.2	3.7	-9.0
Dec 2007	0.0	-0.3	-0.6	2.5	-10.0	-2.7	1.6
Dec 2006	3.2	3.1	5.2	2.3	8.6	-0.9	-5.3
Dec 2005	5.8	5.9	3.5	9.0	3.2	2.1	0.6
Dec 2004	5.3	5.5	7.7	3.4	0.8	5.7	9.6
Dec 2003	5.5	5.3	5.5	6.4	1.7	4.4	0.3
Dec 2002	3.7	3.3	5.4	3.4	-5.9	2.3	-2.6

Note: IND: Industry; MFG: Manufacturing; INTG: Intermediate Goods; CG: Capital Goods; DG: Durable Goods; NDG: Nondurable Goods; EN: Energy

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Broader perspective since 2005 is provided by Chart VE-1A of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland, Federal Statistical Agency of Germany. The index of production industries not seasonally adjusted rises by more than one third between 2003 and 2008 with sharp fluctuations and then collapses during the global recession in 2008. Recovery has been in a steep upward trajectory that has recovered at the more recent peaks the losses during the contraction. Recovery stalled recently with increase at the margin.

Chart VE-1A, Germany, Production Industries, Not Adjusted, 2010=100

Source: Statistiche Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

More detail is provided by Chart VE-2 of the Statistiche Bundesamt Deutschland, or Federal Statistical Agency of Germany, with the unadjusted production industries index and trend from 2010 to 2014. There could be some flattening in recent months probably leading into stagnation, mild downturn and recent recovery as depicted by trend. There is weakness in the current segment with stability/decline followed with increase/stability.

Chart VE-2A, Germany, Production Industries, Not Adjusted, 2010=100

Source: Statistiche Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Table VE-4A provides month and 12-month rates of growth of manufacturing in Germany from Dec 2010 to Dec 2014. There are fluctuations in both monthly rates and in the past 12 months. In Jan 2013, manufacturing fell 1.1 percent and decreased 1.1 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing increased 1.0 percent in Feb 2013, declining 5.2 percent in 12 months. In Mar 2013, manufacturing increased 0.9 percent but fell 8.3 percent in 12 months. There is strong recovery in Apr 2013 with growth of 0.5 percent and 7.9 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 0.9 percent in May 2013 and declined 4.4 percent in 12 months. Recovery is strong in Jun 2013 with growth of 1.9 percent in the month but change of 0.0 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 1.8 percent in Jul 2013 and increased 1.6 percent in 12 months. In Aug 2013, manufacturing increased 2.7 percent and fell 3.0 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 1.1 percent in Sep 2013 and increased 4.6 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing increased 2.3 percent in Nov 2013 and 1.1 percent in 12 months. In Dec 2013, manufacturing increased 0.1 percent and increased 6.1 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing changed 0.0 percent in Jan 2014, increasing 3.3 percent in 12 months. In Feb 2014, manufacturing increased 0.5 percent and 5.9 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 0.4 percent in Mar 2014 and increased 5.2 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing increased 0.2 percent in Apr 2014 and fell 0.8 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 1.4 percent in May, increasing 4.7 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing increased 0.4 percent in Jun 2014 and fell 1.9 percent in 12 months. In Jul 2014, manufacturing jumped 1.6 percent and increased 4.5 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 3.1 percent in Aug 2014 and declined 4.7 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing increased 1.1 percent in Sep 2014 and 4.4 percent in 12 months. In Oct 2014, manufacturing increased 0.5 percent and 1.5 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing grew 0.4 percent in Nov 2014 and fell 1.3 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing increased 0.5 percent in Dec 2014 and increased 2.5 percent in 12 months.

Table VE-4A, Germany, Manufacturing Month and 12-Month ∆%

	12-Month ∆% NSA	Month ∆% SA and Calendar Adjusted
Dec 2014	2.5	0.5
Nov	-1.3	0.4
Oct	1.5	0.5
Sep	4.4	1.1
Aug	-4.7	-3.1
Jul	4.5	1.6
Jun	-1.9	0.4
May	4.7	-1.4
Apr	-0.8	0.2
Mar	5.2	-0.4
Feb	5.9	0.5
Jan	3.3	0.0
Dec 2013	6.1	0.1
Nov	1.1	2.3
Oct	1.7	-0.6
Sep	4.6	-1.1
Aug	-3.0	2.7
Jul	1.6	-1.8
Jun	0.0	1.9
May	-4.4	-0.9
Apr	7.9	0.5
Mar	-8.3	0.9
Feb	-5.2	1.0
Jan	-1.1	-1.1
Dec 2012	-9.4	1.0
Nov	-3.1	-0.6
Oct	3.8	-1.4
Sep	-7.5	-1.6
Aug	-1.0	0.1
Jul	2.0	1.2
Jun	3.7	-1.3
May	-6.8	2.1
Apr	-1.1	-1.9
Mar	-0.4	1.0
Feb	3.3	0.2
Jan	5.6	0.7
Dec 2011	1.4	-1.6
Nov	4.5	-0.7
Oct	0.7	1.1
Sep	5.7	-1.9
Aug	12.2	-0.5
Jul	7.8	3.2
Jun	0.5	-1.7
May	21.2	1.1
Apr	7.5	0.6
Mar	11.2	0.6
Feb	17.1	1.4
Jan	16.9	0.0
Dec 2010	17.6	1.3

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-3A of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland, or Federal Statistical Office of Germany, provides the manufacturing index of Germany from 2010 to 2014. Manufacturing was already flattening in 2007 and fell sharply in 2008 to the beginning of 2010. Manufacturing grew sharply in the initial phase of recovery but has flattened in recent months as revealed by the trend that may be flattening.

Chart VE-3A, Germany, Production Index, Manufacturing, Not Adjusted Index and Trend, 2010=100

Source: Statistiche Bundesamt Deutschland https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Twelve-month rates of growth Germany’s exports and imports are shown in Table VE-5A. Exports increased 10.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2014 while imports increased 4.0 percent. There was sharp decline in the rates in Jun and Jul 2011 to single-digit levels especially for exports. In the 12 months ending in Aug 2011, exports rose 14.6 percent and imports 13.2 percent. In Sep 2011, exports grew 10.4 percent relative to a year earlier and imports grew 11.7 percent. Growth rates in 12 months ending in Oct 2011 fell significantly to 3.5 percent for exports and 9.2 percent for imports. Lower prices may explain part of the decline in nominal values. Exports fell 3.8 percent in 12 months ending in Sep 2012, rebounding to growth of 10.5 percent in Oct 2012 and minus 0.5 percent in Nov 2012 but sharp decline of 7.3 percent in Dec 2012 followed by rebound of 2.8 percent in Jan 2013. Exports fell 3.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2013 and declined 4.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2013. In Apr 2013, exports increased 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Exports fell 4.9 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2013. Exports fell 5.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2013 and imports fell 2.3 percent. In the 12 months ending in Sep 2013, exports increased 3.3 percent and imports fell 0.2 percent. Exports increased 0.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2013 while imports fell 1.5 percent. Exports increased 0.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2013 and imports fell 0.2 percent. Exports increased 4.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013 while imports increased 2.5 percent. Exports increased 2.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2014 while imports increased 0.9 percent. Exports increased 4.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2014 and imports increased 5.6 percent. Exports increased 1.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2014 and imports 4.5 percent. Exports fell 0.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014 while imports increased 0.1 percent. In May 2014, exports increased 4.0 percent in 12 months. Exports increased 1.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2014 and 8.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2014. Exports fell 1.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014. Exports increased 8.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2014 and increased 5.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014. Exports increased 1.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2014. Imports decreased 4.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2012, rebounding to growth of 5.7 percent in Oct 2012, decreasing 1.5 percent in Nov 2012 and 7.8 percent in Dec 2012 and rebounding 3.5 percent in Jan 2013. Imports fell 5.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2013 and declined 6.9 percent in Mar 2013 relative to a year earlier. In Apr 2013, imports increased 4.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In May 2013, imports fell 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Imports fell 1.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2013. In Jul 2013, imports increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Imports fell 2.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2013. In the 12 months ending in Sep 2013, imports declined 0.2 percent. Imports fell 1.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2013. Imports fell 0.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2013 and increased 2.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013. Imports increased 0.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2014 and 5.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2014. Imports increased 4.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2014 and 0.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014. Imports fell 0.7 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2014 and increased 2.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2014. Imports increased 0.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2014 and fell 2.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014. Imports increased 8.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2014 and increased 0.8 percent in Oct 2014 relative to a year earlier. Imports increased 1.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2014. Imports increased 4.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2014. Growth was much stronger in the recovery during 2010 and 2011 from the fall from 2007 to 2009. Germany’s trade grew at high rates in 2006 and 2005.

Table VE-5A, Germany, Exports and Imports NSA Euro Billions and 12-Month ∆%

	Exports EURO Billions	12- Month ∆%	Imports EURO Billions	12-Month ∆%
Dec 2014	90.1	10.0	71.1	4.0
Nov	96.0	1.6	78.1	1.9
Oct	103.9	5.0	81.9	0.8
Sep	102.3	8.3	80.3	8.0
Aug	83.9	-1.1	70.0	-2.4
Jul	100.8	8.4	77.3	0.6
Jun	93.2	1.1	77.0	2.2
May	91.7	4.0	74.1	-0.7
Apr	93.4	-0.5	76.2	0.1
Mar	95.7	1.4	78.9	4.1
Feb	92.1	4.3	75.9	5.6
Jan	90.5	2.2	75.8	0.9
Dec 2013	81.9	4.3	68.3	2.5
Nov	94.5	0.8	76.7	-0.2
Oct	99.0	0.6	81.2	-1.5
Sep	94.4	3.3	74.4	-0.2
Aug	84.8	-5.9	71.7	-2.3
Jul	93.0	-0.4	76.9	1.0
Jun	92.2	-2.2	75.4	-1.2
May	88.2	-4.9	74.7	-3.0
Apr	93.9	7.6	76.1	4.4
Mar	94.3	-4.4	75.8	-6.9
Feb	88.3	-3.2	71.9	-5.2
Jan	88.5	2.8	75.1	3.5
Dec 2012	78.6	-7.3	66.6	-7.8
Nov	93.7	-0.5	76.8	-1.5
Oct	98.4	10.5	82.5	5.7
Sep	91.4	-3.8	74.5	-4.1
Aug	90.2	5.7	73.4	-0.1
Jul	93.3	9.1	76.2	1.5
Jun	94.3	7.0	76.3	1.4
May	92.7	0.3	77.0	-0.7
Apr	87.2	3.2	72.9	-1.1
Mar	98.7	0.1	81.5	2.1
Feb	91.2	7.9	75.8	4.6
Jan	86.1	8.6	72.6	4.6
Dec 2011	84.8	4.7	72.3	5.6
Nov	94.1	7.4	78.0	5.8
Oct	89.1	3.5	78.1	9.2
Sep	95.0	10.4	77.7	11.7
Aug	85.3	14.6	73.5	13.2
Jul	85.6	5.2	75.0	9.7
Jun	88.1	3.3	75.2	5.6
May	92.4	21.2	77.5	17.4
Apr	84.5	12.4	73.7	18.5
Mar	98.7	15.3	79.8	15.1
Feb	84.5	20.8	72.5	27.6
Jan	79.3	25.2	69.4	26.0
Dec 2010	81.0	20.0	68.4	24.4
Nov	87.6	21.2	73.7	30.9
Oct	86.0	18.7	71.5	19.2
Sep	86.0	21.2	69.5	17.0
Aug	74.4	23.8	64.9	27.1
Jul	81.4	15.3	68.4	24.4
Jun	85.3	27.5	71.2	33.9
May	76.2	25.6	66.1	31.3
Apr	75.2	16.8	62.2	14.4
Mar	85.6	22.0	69.3	18.0
Feb	70.0	9.7	56.8	3.2
Jan	63.4	-0.3	55.1	-1.9
Dec 2009	67.5	1.2	55.0	-7.3
Dec 2008	66.7	-8.6	59.4	-5.1
Dec 2007	73.0	-0.6	62.5	-0.1
Dec 2006	73.4	10.2	62.6	8.5
Dec 2005	66.6	11.5	57.7	18.1
Dec 2004	59.7	9.2	48.9	10.8
Dec 2003	54.7	7.6	44.1	3.9
Dec 2002	50.8	5.5	42.5	6.4
Dec 2001	48.2	-3.7	39.9	-17.5
Dec 2000	50.0		48.4

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-4A of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland shows exports and trend of German exports. Growth has been with fluctuations around a strong upward trend that is milder than earlier in the recovery but could be moving upwardly after flattening.

Chart VE-4A, Germany, Exports Original Value and Trend 2010-2014

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Imports in Chart VE-5A also fell sharply and have been recovering with fluctuations around a strong upward trend that could be flattening. There could be new downward trend.

Chart VE-5A, Germany, Imports Original Value and Trend 2010-2014

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-6A of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland shows the trade balance of Germany since 2010. There was sharp decline during the global recession and fluctuations around a mild upward trend during the recovery with stabilization followed by stronger trend in recent months and flattening/declining recently. The final segment could be increasing.

Chart VE-6A, Germany, Trade Balance Original and Trend 2010-2014

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Table VE-6A provides monthly rates of growth of exports and imports of Germany. Exports increased 3.4 percent calendar and seasonally adjusted (CSA) in Dec 2014 while imports decreased 0.8 percent. Export growth had been relatively strong from Dec 2012 to Apr 2013 with only one monthly decline of 1.2 percent in Feb 2013. Exports fell 1.0 percent in May 2013 and 1.1 percent in Jul 2013. Exports grew in four consecutive months from Aug to Nov 2013. Exports fell in Dec 2013, Feb-Mar 2014, May 2014, Aug 2014 and Nov 2014, increasing in Jan, Apr, Jun, Jul 2014, Sep 2014 and Oct 2014. Export growth and import growth were vigorous in Jan-Mar 2011 when Germany’s economy outperformed most advanced economies but less dynamic and consistent in following months as world trade weakens.

Table VE-6A, Germany, Exports and Imports Month ∆% Calendar and Seasonally Adjusted 

	Exports	Imports
Dec 2014	3.4	-0.8
Nov	-2.2	1.2
Oct	0.2	-2.7
Sep	5.1	4.6
Aug	-5.2	-1.0
Jul	4.4	-1.7
Jun	1.0	3.8
May	-1.2	-2.3
Apr	2.7	0.3
Mar	-1.9	-1.6
Feb	-1.2	0.0
Jan	2.5	3.0
Dec 2013	-1.4	-1.2
Nov	0.3	-0.3
Oct	0.6	2.6
Sep	1.1	-2.0
Aug	1.4	0.2
Jul	-1.1	0.7
Jun	0.3	-1.4
May	-1.0	1.8
Apr	0.2	1.2
Mar	1.5	0.3
Feb	-1.2	-2.9
Jan	1.4	2.7
Dec 2012	0.2	-1.1
Nov	-2.6	-3.2
Oct	0.6	2.2
Sep	-2.9	-0.5
Aug	2.0	-0.1
Jul	0.3	0.6
Jun	-1.5	-2.7
May	4.8	5.0
Apr	-1.8	-4.0
Mar	0.3	0.8
Feb	1.4	3.4
Jan	2.4	-0.8
Dec 2011	-3.0	-1.8
Nov	2.7	0.2
Oct	-3.2	-0.7
Sep	1.2	0.1
Aug	2.9	-0.1
Jul	-1.5	0.5
Jun	-0.5	0.0
May	2.9	1.4
Apr	-3.9	-0.3
Mar	4.9	1.6
Feb	1.7	2.5
Jan	0.7	2.8
Dec 2010	-0.2	-2.1

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

There is extremely important information in Table VE-7A for the current sovereign risk crisis in the euro zone. Table VE-7A provides the structure of regional and country relations of Germany’s exports and imports with newly available data for Dec 2014. German exports to other European Union (EU) members are 50.8 percent of total exports in Dec 2014 and 58.0 percent in cumulative Jan-Dec 2014. Exports to the euro area are 35.5 percent of the total in Dec and 36.5 percent cumulative in Jan-Dec. Exports to third countries are 43.6 percent of the total in Dec and 42.0 percent cumulative in Jan-Dec. There is similar distribution for imports. Exports to non-euro countries are increasing 15.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2014, increasing 10.2 percent cumulative in Jan-Dec 2014 while exports to the euro area are increasing 6.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2014 and increasing 2.7 percent cumulative in Jan-Dec 2014. Exports to third countries, accounting for 43.6 percent of the total in Dec 2014, are increasing 10.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2014 and increasing 1.5 percent cumulative in Jan-Dec 2014, accounting for 42.0 percent of the cumulative total in Jan-Dec 2014. Price competitiveness through devaluation could improve export performance and growth. Economic performance in Germany is closely related to Germany’s high competitiveness in world markets. Weakness in the euro zone and the European Union in general could affect the German economy. This may be the major reason for choosing the “fiscal abuse” of the European Central Bank considered by Buiter (2011Oct31) over the breakdown of the euro zone. There is a tough analytical, empirical and forecasting doubt of growth and trade in the euro zone and the world with or without maintenance of the European Monetary Union (EMU) or euro zone. Germany could benefit from depreciation of the euro because of high share in its exports to countries not in the euro zone but breakdown of the euro zone raises doubts on the region’s economic growth that could affect German exports to other member states.

Table VE-7A, Germany, Structure of Exports and Imports by Region, € Billions and ∆%

	Dec 2014  € Billions	Dec 12-Month ∆%	Cumulative Jan-Dec 2014 € Billions	Cumulative Jan-Dec 2014/ Jan-Dec 2013 ∆%
Total Exports	90.1	10.0	1,133.6	3.7
A. EU Members	50.8 % 56.4	9.5	657.3 % 58.0	5.4
Euro Area	32.0 % 35.5	6.3	414.2 % 36.5	2.7
Non-euro Area	18.8 % 20.9	15.5	243.1 % 21.4	10.2
B. Third Countries	39.3 % 43.6	10.5	476.2 % 42.0	1.5
Total Imports	71.1	4.0	916.5	2.0
C EU Members	46.3 % 65.1	3.0	599.9 % 65.5	3.6
Euro Area	31.7 % 44.6	0.8	411.4 % 44.9	2.3
Non-euro Area	14.7 % 20.7	3.4	188.5 % 20.6	6.3
D Third Countries	24.7 % 34.7	6.0	316.6 % 34.5	-0.9

Notes: Total Exports = A+B; Total Imports = C+D

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2015/02/PE15_038_51.html

VF France. Table VF-FR provides growth rates of GDP of France with the estimates of Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE). The long-term rate of GDP growth of France from IVQ1949 to IVQ2014 is quite high at 3.2 percent. France’s growth rates were quite high in the four decades of the 1950s, 1960, 1970s and 1980s with an average growth rate of 4.0 percent compounding the average rates in the decades and discounting to one decade. The growth impulse diminished with 2.0 percent in the 1990s and 1.8 percent from 2000 to 2007. The average growth rate from 2000 to 2014, using fourth quarter data, is 1.0 percent because of the sharp impact of the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. Cobet and Wilson (2002) provide estimates of output per hour and unit labor costs in national currency and US dollars for the US, Japan and Germany from 1950 to 2000 (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 137-44). The average yearly rate of productivity change from 1950 to 2000 was 2.9 percent in the US, 6.3 percent for Japan and 4.7 percent for Germany while unit labor costs in USD increased at 2.6 percent in the US, 4.7 percent in Japan and 4.3 percent in Germany. From 1995 to 2000, output per hour increased at the average yearly rate of 4.6 percent in the US, 3.9 percent in Japan and 2.6 percent in Germany while unit labor costs in US fell at minus 0.7 percent in the US, 4.3 percent in Japan and 7.5 percent in Germany. There was increase in productivity growth in the G7 in Japan and France in the second half of the 1990s but significantly lower than the acceleration of 1.3 percentage points per year in the US. Lucas (2011May) compares growth of the G7 economies (US, UK, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Canada) and Spain, finding that catch-up growth with earlier rates for the US and UK stalled in the 1970s.

Table VF-FR, France, Average Growth Rates of GDP Fourth Quarter, 1949-2014

Period	Average ∆%
1949-2014	3.2
2007-2014	0.3
2000-2014	1.0
2000-2013	1.1
2000-2007	1.8
1990-1999	2.0
1980-1989	2.6
1970-1979	3.7
1960-1969	5.7
1950-1959	4.2

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=26&date=20150213

The Markit Flash France Composite Output Index decreased from 49.7 in Dec to 49.5 in Jan (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/a2da71a5f606408ea3c8486499f1156a). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds continuing weak performance (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/a2da71a5f606408ea3c8486499f1156a). The Markit France Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing with close association with French GDP, decreased from 49.7 in Dec to 49.3 in Jan, indicating marginal contraction (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/6125b8f5670345fc95608961c451a13d). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the France Services PMI^®, finds restraint of growth by the private sector (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/6125b8f5670345fc95608961c451a13d). The Markit France Services Activity index decreased from 50.6 in Dec to 49.4 in Jan (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/6125b8f5670345fc95608961c451a13d). The Markit France Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^® increased to 49.2 in Jan from 47.5 in Dec (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/5c64595cdb86401685388c76f015bc55). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the France Manufacturing PMI^®, finds stabilization in manufacturing with weak demand (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/5c64595cdb86401685388c76f015bc55). Table FR provides the country data table for France.

Table FR, France, Economic Indicators

CPI	Dec month ∆% 0.1 12 months ∆%: 0.1 1/18/15
PPI	Dec month ∆%: -0.8 Dec 12 months ∆%: -2.8 Blog 2/1/15
GDP Growth	IVQ2014/IIIQ2014 ∆%:0.1 IVQ2014/IVQ2013 ∆%: 0.2 Blog 3/31/13 5/19/12 6/30/13 9/29/13 11/17/13 12/29/13 2/16/14 4/6/14 5/18/14 6/29/14 8/17/14 9/28/14 11/16/14 12/28/14 2/15/15
Industrial Production	Dec ∆%: Manufacturing 1.2 12-Month ∆%: Manufacturing 0.3 Blog 2/15/15
Consumer Spending	Manufactured Goods Dec ∆%: 1.2 Dec 12-Month Manufactured Goods ∆%: 0.9 Blog 2/1/15
Employment	Unemployment Rate: IIIQ2014 9.9% Blog 12/7/14
Trade Balance	Nov Exports ∆%: month 0.6, 12 months -1.9 Nov Imports ∆%: month 4.4, 12 months -2.4 Blog 1/18/15
Confidence Indicators	Historical average 100 Nov Mfg Business Climate 99.0 Blog 12/28/14

Links to blog comments in Table FR:

2/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html

1/18/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/01/exchange-rate-conflicts-squeeze-of.html

12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

12/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/financial-risks-twenty-six-million.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

9/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

12/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/collapse-of-united-states-dynamism-of.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

6/30/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/tapering-quantitative-easing-policy-and.html

5/19/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/word-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

Growth of GDP in a quarter relative to the prior quarter is provided for France in Table VF-1. GDP fell 0.2 percent in IVQ2012 and changed 0.0 percent in IQ2013, rebounding with growth of 0.7 percent in IIQ2013. GDP fell 0.1 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2013. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IQ2014. GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IIQ2014. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 0.1 in IVQ2014. The French economy grew 0.3 percent in IVQ2011, 0.2 percent in IQ2012, contracting 0.3 percent in IIQ2012 and growing 0.2 percent in IIIQ2012. In the four quarters of 2012 and the first quarter of 2013, France’s GDP contracted in two quarters and stagnated in one. Growth in the ten quarters of expansion from IIIQ2009 to IVQ2011 accumulated 4.7 percent at the annual equivalent rate of 1.9 percent. Recovery has been much weaker than the cumulative 2.6 percent in the four quarters of 2006. Weak recoveries in advanced economies have prevented full utilization of labor, capital and productive resources.

Table VF-1, France, Quarterly Real GDP Growth, Quarter on Prior Quarter ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IVQ
2014	0.0	-0.1	0.3	0.1
2013	0.0	0.7	-0.1	0.3
2012	0.2	-0.3	0.2	-0.2
2011	1.1	-0.1	0.2	0.3
2010	0.4	0.6	0.6	0.6
2009	-1.6	-0.1	0.2	0.7
2008	0.5	-0.5	-0.2	-1.6
2007	0.7	0.6	0.4	0.2
2006	0.7	1.1	0.0	0.8
2005	0.1	0.2	0.6	0.8
2004	0.6	0.8	0.4	0.7
2003	0.0	0.0	0.7	0.8
2002	0.6	0.6	0.2	-0.1
2001	0.6	0.1	0.2	-0.2
2000	1.2	0.8	0.6	0.9
1999	0.6	0.8	1.1	1.2

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=26&date=20150213

Growth rates of France’s real GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier are shown in Table VF-2. France has not recovered the rates of growth in excess of 2 percent prior to the global recession. GDP fell 3.9 percent in IQ2009, 3.5 percent in IIQ2009, 3.1 percent in IIIQ2009 and 0.9 percent in IVQ2009. Growth in IVQ2011 relative to IVQ2010 was 1.5 percent and GDP growth declined to 0.6 percent in IQ2012, 0.4 percent in IIQ2012 relative to the same quarter a year earlier, 0.4 percent in IIIQ2012 relative to a year earlier and 0.0 percent in IVQ2012 relative to a year earlier. Growth in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier was minus 0.2 percent. France’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 0.3 percent in IIIQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and grew 0.0 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier.

Table VF-2, France, Real GDP Growth Current Quarter Relative to Same Quarter Year Earlier ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IVQ
2014	0.8	0.0	0.4	0.2
2013	-0.2	0.7	0.3	0.8
2012	0.6	0.4	0.4	0.0
2011	2.9	2.1	1.8	1.5
2010	1.2	1.9	2.3	2.2
2009	-3.9	-3.5	-3.1	-0.9
2008	1.7	0.6	0.0	-1.9
2007	2.6	2.2	2.6	1.9
2006	2.2	3.1	2.5	2.6
2005	2.0	1.4	1.6	1.6
2004	2.1	3.0	2.7	2.5
2003	0.7	0.1	0.7	1.6
2002	0.7	1.2	1.2	1.3
2001	3.0	2.2	1.9	0.7
2000	4.4	4.4	3.8	3.5
1999	3.2	2.9	3.4	3.8

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=26&date=20150213

Chart VF-1 of the Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques provides France’s quarterly real GDP from IQ1949 to IVQ2014. France’s economy has grown dynamically over decades. Recovery from the global recession in 2008-2009 has flattened.

Chart VF-1, France, Quarterly Real GDP, Seasonally and Working Day Adjusted, IQ1949-IVQ2014

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=26&date=20150213

Percentage changes and contributions of segments of GDP in France are provided in Table VF-3. Internal demand deducted 0.2 percentage points to growth in IQ2014, adding 0.1 percentage points in IQ2014. Internal demand added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2014 and 0.2 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Internal demand added 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2014. Net foreign trade deducted 0.1 percentage points in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points to growth in IIQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIIQ2014 and added 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2014.

Table VF-3, France, Contributions to GDP Growth, Calendar and Seasonally Adjusted, %

∆% from Prior Period	IQ 2014	IIQ 2014	IIIQ 2014	IVQ 2014	2013	2014 (ovhg)
GDP	0.0	-0.1	0.3	0.1	0.4	0.4
Imports	1.0	0.6	1.3	1.7	1.9	3.8
Household Consump.	-0.3	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.6
Govt. Consump.	0.3	0.4	0.6	0.4	2.0	1.9
GFCF	-0.7	-0.8	-0.6	-0.5	-0.8	-1.6
General Government	-0.3	-1.3	-1.5	-0.2	1.1	-2.1
Exports	0.6	0.1	0.7	2.3	2.4	2.7
% Point Contribs.
Internal Demand ex Inventory Changes	-0.2	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.4	0.4
Inventory Changes	0.3	-0.1	0.3	-0.2	-0.2	0.3
Net Foreign Trade	-0.1	-0.2	-0.2	0.1	0.1	-0.4

Notes: Consump.: Consumption; Gvt.: Government; GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation; Contribus.: Contributions; OVHG: “annual growth rate carried over at the mid-year point.

Source:  Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=26&date=20150213

Chart VF-2 of France’s Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques provides percentage point contributions to GDP growth. The economy was driven in IQ2013 by consumption with net trade, inventory changes and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) deducting from growth. Final consumption drove the economy in IIQ2013 together with contribution by net trade and capital formation. Gross fixed capital formation and net trade constrained the economy in IIIQ2013. Inventory changed deducted from growth in IVQ2013 with contributions by consumption and net trade. Inventory change contributed to growth in IQ2014 with deductions by consumption, GFCF and net foreign trade. Consumption contributed to growth in IIQ2014 with deductions by GFCF, inventory change and net trade. Consumption and inventory change drove the economy in IIIQ2014 with deductions by net trade and gross fixed capital formation. Consumption and net trade drove the economy in IVQ2014 with deductions by GFCF and inventory change.

Chart VF-2, France, Percentage Point Contributions to GDP Growth

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=26&date=20150213

Table VF-4 provides longer historical perspective of manufacturing in France. Output of manufacturing increased 0.3 percent in Dec 2014 and increased 1.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2014. Manufacturing in France fell 14.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2008 and 4.2 percent in Dec 2009. Manufacturing recovered with growth of 6.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2010. Manufacturing fell 0.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2011 and 3.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2012. Manufacturing increased 0.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013 and 0.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2014.

Table VF-4, France, Manufacturing, Month and 12-Month ∆%

	Month ∆%	12-Month ∆%
Dec 2014	1.2	0.3
Nov	-0.5	-1.4
Oct	-0.2	-0.4
Sep	0.5	0.1
Aug	-0.3	-0.5
Jul	0.1	0.4
Jun	1.6	0.0
May	-2.5	-2.9
Apr	0.1	-0.4
Mar	-0.5	1.8
Feb	0.3	1.5
Jan	0.5	2.1
Dec 2013	-0.5	0.4
Nov	0.5	1.6
Oct	0.3	0.5
Sep	-0.1	-1.0
Aug	0.6	-3.1
Jul	-0.3	-2.1
Jun	-1.3	-0.3
May	0.0	0.2
Apr	2.3	0.2
Mar	-0.8	-3.7
Feb	0.9	-1.3
Jan	-1.2	-4.2
Dec 2012	0.7	-3.1
Nov	-0.6	-5.8
Oct	-1.2	-3.2
Sep	-2.2	-2.3
Aug	1.7	-0.8
Jul	1.5	-2.6
Jun	-0.8	-3.4
May	0.0	-5.1
Apr	-1.7	-3.3
Mar	1.7	-2.4
Feb	-2.1	-5.4
Jan	-0.1	-2.9
Dec 2011	-2.1	-0.6
Nov	2.2	2.1
Oct	-0.3	2.1
Sep	-0.7	1.5
Aug	-0.2	3.7
Jul	0.7	3.5
Jun	-2.6	3.2
May	1.9	5.0
Apr	-0.8	4.0
Mar	-1.4	5.3
Feb	0.6	9.2
Jan	2.2	8.5
Dec 2014		0.3
Dec 2013		0.4
Dec 2012		-3.1
Dec 2011		-0.6
Dec 2010		6.1
Dec 2009		-4.2
Dec 2008		-14.0
Dec 2007		-0.7
Dec 2006		2.8
Dec 2005		0.9
Dec 2004		1.1
Dec 2003		0.4
Dec 2002		-1.0
Dec 2001		-5.3
Dec 2000		4.9

Source:

Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=10&date=20150210

Chart VF-3 of the Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques provides France’s index of manufacturing, adjusted for working days and seasonal effects, from Jan 1990 to Dec 2014. Growth was robust in the 1990s and in recovery from the 2001 recession. Manufacturing output fell sharply during the global recession followed by recovery and another trend of decline followed by increase and new decline.

Chart VF-3, France, Index of Manufacturing 2010=100, Jan 1990-Dec 2014, Seasonal and Working-Day Adjusted

Source:

Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=10&date=20150210

Chart VF-4 of France’s Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques shows indices of manufacturing in France from 2010 to 2014. Manufacturing, which is CZ in Chart VF-2, fell deeply in 2008 and part of 2009. All curves of industrial indices tend to flatten recently with oscillations and declines and marginal improvement followed by renewed decline/stability in the final segment with jump in Mar-Apr 2013. Manufacturing fell in May-Jul 2013 with mild recovery in Aug 2013 and decline in Sep 2013. Manufacturing increased in Oct-Nov 2013 and fell in Dec 2013. Manufacturing rebounded in Jan-Feb 2014, decreasing in Mar 2014. Manufacturing increased in Apr 2014 and contracted in May 2014. Manufacturing expanded in Jun 2014 and contracted in Jul-Aug 2014. Manufacturing grew in Sep 2014 and contracted in Oct-Nov 2014. Manufacturing rebounded in Dec 2014.

Chart VF-4, France, Industrial Production Indices 2010-2014 Legend: CZ : Manufacturing – (C1) : Manufacture of food products and beverages – (C3) : Electrical and electronic equipment; machine equipment – (C4) : Manufacture of transport equipment – (C5) : Other manufacturing

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=10&date=20150210

France has been running a trade deficit fluctuating around €5,000 million as shown in Table VF-5. Exports increased 1.8 percent in Dec 2014 while imports increased 2.6 percent. The trade deficit increased from revised €3093 million in Nov 2014 to €3446 million in Dec 2014.

Table VF-5, France, Exports, Imports and Trade Balance, € Millions 

	Exports	Imports	Trade Balance
Dec 2014	37,907	41,353	-3,446
Nov	37,231	40,324	-3,093
Oct	37,005	41,191	-4,186
Sep	36,806	41,205	-4,399
Aug	36,263	41,056	-4,793
Jul	36,134	41,426	-5,292
Jun	36,697	41,766	-5,069
May	36,055	40,966	-4,911
Apr	36,086	39,983	-3,897
Mar	36,285	41,238	-4,953
Feb	36,311	40,085	-3,774
Jan	36,185	41,812	-5,627
Dec 2013	36,557	41,927	-5,370
Nov	35,739	41,549	-5,810
Oct	36,425	41,156	-4,731
Sep	36,559	42,220	-5,661
Aug	36,874	41,241	-4,367
Jul	36,701	41,700	-4,999
Jun	35,963	40,829	-4,866
May	36,069	41,664	-5,595
Apr	38,523	42,461	-3,938
Mar	36,161	40,840	-4,679
Feb	35,477	41,729	-6,252
Jan	36,630	41,907	-5,277
Dec 2012	36,885	42,381	-5,496
Dec 2011	35,765	41,070	-5,305
Dec 2010	33,764	39,183	-5,419

Source: France, Direction générale des douanes et droits indirects

http://lekiosque.finances.gouv.fr/AppChiffre/Portail_default.asp

Table VF-6 provides month and 12-month percentage changes of France’s exports and imports. Exports increased 1.8 percent in Dec 2014 and increased 3.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2014. Imports decreased 2.6 percent in Dec 2014 and decreased 1.4 percent in 12 months. Growth of exports and imports has fluctuated in 2011, 2012 and 2013-2014 because of price surges of commodities and raw materials. Weak economic conditions worldwide also influence trade performance.

Table VF-6, France, Exports and Imports, Month and 12-Month ∆%

	Exports Month ∆%	Exports 12-Month ∆%	Imports Month ∆%	Imports 12-Month ∆%
Dec 2014	1.8	3.7	2.6	-1.4
Jan 2014	-1.0	-1.2	-0.3	-0.2
Dec 2013	2.3	-0.9	0.9	-1.1
Dec 2012		3.1		3.2
Dec 2011		5.9		4.8
Dec 2010		12.9		14.3
Dec 2009		-9.4		-2.0
Dec 2008		-6.8		-11.1
Dec 2007		5.6		8.2
Dec 2006		6.6		6.4
Dec 2005		11.8		15.6
Dec 2004		-3.7		5.8
Dec 2003		7.1		1.6

Source: France, Direction générale des douanes et droits indirects

http://lekiosque.finances.gouv.fr/AppChiffre/Portail_default.asp

Annual data for France’s exports, imports and trade balance are provided in Table VF-4. France’s trade balance deteriorated sharply from 2007 to 2011 with the deficit increasing from €42,494 million in 2007 to €74,510 million in 2011. Annual growth rates of exports have not been sufficiently high to compensate for growth of imports driven in part by commodity price increases. In 2012, the trade deficit declined to €67,264 million with growth of exports of 3.1 percent and of imports of 1.2 percent. The trade deficit declined to €60,804 million in 2013 with declines of exports of 1.2 percent and of 2.3 percent for imports. The trade deficit fell in 2014 to €53,825 million with increase of exports of 0.1 percent and decline of imports of 1.3 percent.

Table VF-7, France, Exports, Imports and Balance Year € Millions and ∆%

	Exports € Millions	∆%	Imports € Millions	∆%	Balance € Millions
Dec 2014 12 Months	437,284		491,109		-53,825
Year
2014	437,284	0.1	491,109	-1.3	-53,825
2013	436,816	-1.2	497,620	-2.1	-60,804
2012	441,923	3.1	509,187	1.2	-67,264
2011	428,609	8.5	503,119	12.4	-74,510
2010	395,039	14.0	447,483	14.2	-52,444
2009	346,481	-17.0	391,872	-17.3	-45,391
2008	417,636	2.7	473,853	5.5	-56,217
2007	406,487	3.0	448,981	5.8	-42,494
2006	394,621	9.5	424,549	10.4	-29,928
2005	360,376	4.4	384,588	9.6	-24,212
2004	345,256	5.4	350,996	7.0	-5,740
2003	327,653		327,884		-231

Source: France, Direction générale des douanes et droits indirects

http://lekiosque.finances.gouv.fr/AppChiffre/Portail_default.asp

VG Italy. Table VG-IT provides percentage changes in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier of Italy’s expenditure components in chained volume measures. GDP has been declining at sharper rates from minus 0.7 percent in IVQ2011 to minus 2.5 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.5 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.2 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.8 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 1.2 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.3 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and decreased 0.4 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.4 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.3 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. The aggregate demand components of consumption and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) have been declining at faster rates. The rates of decline of GDP, consumption and GFCF were somewhat milder in IIIQ2013 and IVQ2013 than in IQ2013 and the final three quarters of 2012. Consumption fell 0.3 percent in IQ2014 and GFCF fell 1.4 percent. In IIQ2014, consumption increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier and GFCF fell 2.2 percent. GDP fell 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier while consumption increased 0.4 percent and GFCF fell 3.1 percent.

Table VG-IT, Italy, GDP and Expenditure Components, Chained Volume Measures, Quarter ∆% on Same Quarter Year Earlier

	GDP	Imports	Consumption	GFCF	Exports
2014
IVQ	-0.3
IIIQ	-0.4	-0.7	0.4	-3.1	1.3
IIQ	-0.4	1.8	0.2	-2.2	2.5
IQ	-0.3	-0.1	-0.3	-1.4	1.5
2013
IVQ	-1.2	0.5	-1.1	-3.4	1.4
IIIQ	-1.8	-1.7	-2.2	-4.3	0.4
IIQ	-2.2	-4.1	-2.7	-6.2	0.4
IQ	-2.5	-5.0	-2.9	-7.6	1.3
2012
IVQ	-2.5	-7.6	-3.5	-7.8	1.3
IIIQ	-2.5	-8.0	-3.7	-8.1	2.5
IIQ	-2.4	-8.6	-3.6	-7.6	1.2
IQ	-1.9	-8.5	-3.0	-6.5	1.6
2011
IVQ	-0.7	-7.0	-2.1	-4.0	2.4
IIIQ	0.5	0.4	-0.8	-2.4	4.6
IIQ	1.3	3.7	0.4	-0.9	7.7
IQ	1.9	8.4	0.7	0.6	10.3
2010
IVQ	2.3	14.6	1.3	0.9	13.0
IIIQ	1.8	12.9	1.1	0.6	12.4
IIQ	1.9	14.2	1.0	-0.4	13.2
IQ	0.7	6.7	0.9	-3.3	6.8
2009
IVQ	-3.5	-6.3	0.2	-8.2	-9.3
IIIQ	-5.0	-12.2	-0.8	-12.6	-16.4
IIQ	-6.6	-17.9	-1.4	-13.6	-21.4
IQ	-6.9	-17.2	-1.8	-12.4	-22.8
2008
IVQ	-3.0	-8.2	-0.9	-8.3	-10.3
IIIQ	-1.9	-5.0	-0.8	-4.5	-3.9
IIQ	-0.2	-0.1	-0.3	-1.5	0.4
IQ	0.5	1.7	0.1	-1.0	2.9

GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/140552

The Markit/ADACI Business Activity Index increased from 49.4 in Dec to 51.2 in Jan (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/de602c4f66774a9498effbd5e79d4f8e). Phil Smith, Economist at Markit and author of the Italy Services PMI^®, finds weak demand in stabilizing economy (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/de602c4f66774a9498effbd5e79d4f8e). The Markit/ADACI Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®), increased from 48.4 in Dec to 49.9 in Jan (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b6c075a50679413aa05172baa1dc30bc). New export orders continued to increase. Phil Smith, Economist at Markit and author of the Italian Manufacturing PMI^®, finds fragile conditions in manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b6c075a50679413aa05172baa1dc30bc). Table IT provides the country data table for Italy.

Table IT, Italy, Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index	Jan month ∆%: -0.4 Jan 12-month ∆%: -0.6 Blog 2/8/15
Producer Price Index	Dec month ∆%: -0.8 Dec 12-month ∆%: -2.1 Blog 2/1/15
GDP Growth	IVQ2014/IIIQ2014 SA ∆%: 0.0 IVQ2014/IVQ2013 NSA ∆%: minus 0.3 Blog 3/17/13 6/16/13 8/11/13 9/15/13 11/17/13 12/15/13 2/16/14 3/16/14 5/18/14 6/15/14 8/10/14 8/31/14 10/19/14 11/16/14 12/7/14 2/15/15
Labor Report	Dec 2014 Participation rate 64.2% Employment ratio 55.7% Unemployment rate 12.9% Youth Unemployment 42.0% Blog 2/1/15
Industrial Production	Dec month ∆%: 0.4 12 months CA ∆%: 0.1 Blog 2/15/15
Retail Sales	Nov month ∆%: 0.1 Nov 12-month ∆%: -2.3 Blog 1/25/15
Business Confidence	Mfg Jan 97.1, Sep 95.5 Construction Jan 77.3, Sep 75.3 Blog 2/1/15
Trade Balance	Balance Nov SA €3591 million versus Oct €3934 Exports Nov month SA ∆%: minus 1.1; Imports month ∆%: -0.1 Exports 12 months Nov NSA ∆%: 1.7 Imports 12 months NSA ∆%: 0.0 Blog 1/25/15

Links to blog comments in Table IT:

2/8/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/job-creation-and-monetary-policy-twenty.html

2/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html

1/25/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/01/competitive-currency-conflicts-world.html

12/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/financial-risks-twenty-six-million.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

10/19/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/imf-view-squeeze-of-economic-activity.html

8/31/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitical-and-financial-risks.html

8/10/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/volatility-of-valuations-of-risk_10.html

6/15/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financialgeopolitical-risks-recovery.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

8/11/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/recovery-without-hiring-loss-of-full.html

6/16/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/recovery-without-hiring-seven-million.html

3/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

Table VG-1 provides revised percentage changes of GDP in Italy of quarter on prior quarter and quarter on same quarter a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2014 and fell 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 and fell 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.2 percent in IIQ2014 and declined 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy changed 0.0 percent in IQ2014 and fell 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2013 and fell 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2013, interrupting eight consecutive quarterly declines, and fell 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.2 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.9 percent in IQ2013 and declined 2.5 percent relative to IQ2012. GDP had been growing during six consecutive quarters but at very low rates from IQ2010 to IIQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell in eight consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IIQ2013 at increasingly higher rates of contraction from 0.3 percent in IIIQ2011 to 0.8 percent in IVQ2011, 0.9 percent in IQ2012 and 0.4 percent in IIQ2012 and 0.4 percent in IIIQ2012. The pace of decline accelerated to minus 0.8 percent in IVQ2012 and 0.9 percent in IQ2013, declining to minus 0.2 percent in IIQ2013 and 0.0 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP contracted cumulatively 4.6 percent in eight consecutive quarterly contractions from IIIQ2011 to IIQ2013 at the annual equivalent rate of 2.3 percent. The total contraction in the 12 quarters including IVQ2013, IIQ2014 and IIIQ2014 accumulates to 5.0 percent. The yearly rate has fallen from 2.3 percent in IVQ2010 to minus 2.5 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.2 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.8 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 1.2 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.3 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and fell 0.4 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.4 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and fell 0.3 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. The fiscal adjustment of Italy is significantly more difficult with the economy not growing especially on the prospects of increasing government revenue. The strategy is for reforms to improve productivity, facilitating future fiscal consolidation.

Table VG-1, Italy, GDP ∆%

	Quarter ∆% Relative to Preceding Quarter	Quarter ∆% Relative to Same Quarter Year Earlier
IVQ2014	0.0	-0.3
IIIQ2014	-0.1	-0.4
IIQ2014	-0.2	-0.4
IQ2014	0.0	-0.3
IVQ2013	-0.1	-1.2
IIIQ2013	0.0	-1.8
IIQ2013	-0.2	-2.2
IQ2013	-0.9	-2.5
IVQ2012	-0.8	-2.5
IIIQ2012	-0.4	-2.5
IIQ2012	-0.4	-2.4
IQ2012	-0.9	-1.9
IVQ2011	-0.8	-0.7
IIIQ2011	-0.3	0.5
IIQ2011	0.2	1.3
IQ2011	0.2	1.9
IVQ2010	0.4	2.3
IIIQ2010	0.4	1.8
IIQ2010	0.8	1.9
IQ2010	0.6	0.7
IVQ2009	-0.1	-3.5
IIIQ2009	0.4	-5.0
IIQ2009	-0.3	-6.6
IQ2009	-3.5	-6.9
IVQ2008	-1.6	-3.0
IIIQ2008	-1.3	-1.9
IIQ2008	-0.5	-0.2
IQ2008	0.5	0.5
IV2007	-0.4	0.1
IIIQ2007	0.3	1.7
IIQ2007	0.2	2.0
IQ2007	0.0	2.4

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/149097

Chart VG-1 of the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) provides growth of GDP of Italy at market prices. The year on year rate of growth pulled strongly out of the contraction. There is evident trend of deceleration with increasingly sharper contraction and mild moderation in 2013 and 2014.

Chart VG-1, Italy, GDP at Market Prices, ∆% on Same Quarter Year Earlier

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/

Industrial production in Italy increased 0.4 percent in Dec 2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier calendar adjusted. Italy’s industrial production increased 0.3 percent in Nov 2014 seasonally adjusted and decreased 1.9 percent in 12 months calendar adjusted, as shown in Table VG-2. Industrial production changed 0.0 percent in Oct 2014 and fell 3.0 percent in 12 months calendar adjusted. Industrial production fell 0.8 percent in Sep 2014 and decreased 2.7 percent in 12 months. Industrial production increased 0.3 percent in Aug 2014 and fell 0.7 percent in 12 months. Industrial production decreased 1.0 percent in Jul 2014 and decreased 1.6 percent in 12 months. Industrial production decreased 1.2 percent in May 2014 and fell 1.7 percent in 12 months. Industrial production increased 0.4 percent in Apr 2014 and 1.5 percent in 12 months. Industrial production decreased 0.4 percent in Mar 2014 and 0.2 percent in 12 months. Industrial production fell 0.5 percent in Feb 2014 but increased 0.4 percent in 12 months. Industrial production increased 1.3 percent in Jan 2014 and grew 1.2 percent in 12 months. Industrial production fell 1.3 percent in Dec 2013 and 1.2 percent in 12 months. Industrial production decreased 0.2 percent in Nov 2013 and increased 0.9 percent CA relative to a year earlier. Industrial production increased 0.7 percent in Oct 2013 and fell 0.4 percent in 12 months. Industrial production increased 0.8 percent in Sep 2013 and fell 2.9 percent in 12 months. In Aug 2013, industrial production decreased 0.5 percent and fell 4.6 percent in 12 months. Industrial production changed 0.0 percent in Jul 2013 and fell 3.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2013. In the quarter Sep-Nov 2012, industrial production fell cumulatively 4.1 percent, at the annual equivalent rate of 15.6 percent. Industrial production fell 7.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2012. There have been negative changes with oscillations in monthly industrial production. Industrial production fell 18.8 percent in 2009 after falling 3.2 percent in 2008.

Table VG-2, Italy, Industrial Production ∆%

			Index CA	∆%	Index	∆%
2012	-	-	94.7	-6.4	94.3	-6.1
2013	-	-	91.7	-3.2	91.4	-3.1
2014	-	-	91.0	-0.8	90.3	-1.2
2014	Index SA	Quarter ∆%	Index CA	4Q∆%	Index	∆%
IQ	91.7	-0.2	92.7	0.4	91.5	-0.1
IIQ	91.2	-0.5	94.9	0.0	93.1	-1.6
IIIQ	90.5	-0.8	85.6	-1.8	85.8	-1.4
IVQ	90.4	-0.1	91.0	-1.6	90.7	-1.7
	Index	Month ∆%	Index CA	12 Month ∆%	Index	∆%
2012
Dec	92.1	0.5	81.3	-7.1	78.4	-10.0
2013
Jan	92.2	0.1	86.0	-3.3	89.0	-0.2
Feb	91.8	-0.4	92.1	-4.5	90.9	-8.2
Mar	91.3	-0.5	98.8	-5.8	94.8	-10.0
Apr	90.9	-0.4	88.6	-4.9	89.0	-0.4
May	91.8	1.0	99.3	-4.6	100.6	-4.6
Jun	91.6	-0.2	96.8	-2.3	94.2	-5.3
Jul	91.6	0.0	104.5	-3.8	106.8	-0.7
Aug	91.1	-0.5	58.6	-4.6	57.5	-7.6
Sep	91.8	0.8	98.5	-2.9	96.7	0.2
Oct	92.4	0.7	100.8	-0.4	103.0	-0.4
Nov	92.2	-0.2	96.5	0.9	93.9	-2.2
Dec	91.0	-1.3	80.3	-1.2	79.9	1.9
2014
Jan	92.2	1.3	87.0	1.2	87.3	-1.9
Feb	91.7	-0.5	92.5	0.4	91.3	0.4
Mar	91.3	-0.4	98.6	-0.2	96.0	1.3
Apr	91.7	0.4	89.9	1.5	89.0	0.0
May	90.6	-1.2	97.6	-1.7	95.8	-4.8
Jun	91.4	0.9	97.1	0.3	94.5	0.3
Jul	90.5	-1.0	102.8	-1.6	105.0	-1.7
Aug	90.8	0.3	58.2	-0.7	55.4	-3.7
Sep	90.1	-0.8	95.8	-2.7	97.0	0.3
Oct	90.1	0.0	97.8	-3.0	99.9	-3.0
Nov	90.4	0.3	94.7	-1.9	92.1	-1.9
Dec	90.8	0.4	80.4	0.1	80.0	0.1

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/148408

Chart VG-2 provides 12-month percentage changes of Italy’s index of industrial production. Industrial production improved from decline of 1.2 percent the 12 months ending in Dec 2013 to increase of 0.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2014 but increase of 0.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2014.

Chart VG-2, Italy, Industrial Production, 12-Month Percentage Changes

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/en/

VH United Kingdom. Annual data in Table VH-UK show the strong impact of the global recession in the UK with decline of GDP of 4.3 percent in 2009 after dropping 0.3 percent in 2008. Recovery of 1.9 percent in 2010 is relatively low in comparison with annual growth rates in 2007 and earlier years. Growth was only 1.6 percent in 2011 and 0.7 percent in 2012. Growth increased to 1.7 percent in 2013 and 2.6 percent in 2014. The bottom part of Table VH-UK provides average growth rates of UK GDP since 1948. The UK economy grew at 2.6 percent per year on average between 1948 and 2013, which is relatively high for an advanced economy. The growth rate of GDP between 2000 and 2007 is higher at 2.9 percent. Growth in the current cyclical expansion from 2010 to 2014 has been only at 1.7 percent as advanced economies struggle with weak internal demand and world trade. GDP in 2014 higher by 3.7 percent relative to 2007 while it would have been 22.2 higher at trend of 2.9 percent as from 2000 to 2007.

Table VH-UK, UK, Gross Domestic Product, ∆%

	∆% on Prior Year
1998	3.5
1999	3.2
2000	3.8
2001	2.7
2002	2.5
2003	4.3
2004	2.5
2005	2.8
2006	3.0
2007	2.6
2008	-0.3
2009	-4.3
2010	1.9
2011	1.6
2012	0.7
2013	1.7
2014	2.6
Average Growth Rates ∆% per Year
1948-2014	2.6
1950-1959	3.1
1960-1969	3.1
1970-1979	2.6
1980-1989	3.1
1990-1999	2.2
2000-2007	2.9
2007-2013*	1.1
2007-2014*	3.7
2000-2014	1.7

*Absolute change from 2007 to 2012 an from 2007 to 2013

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/gva/gross-domestic-product--preliminary-estimate/q4-2014/index.html

The Business Activity Index of the Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI^® increased from 55.8 in Dec to 57.2 in Jan (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/7f74a45a346049b090efdde7439da2fa). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds the combined indices consistent with the UK economy growing at around 0.5 percent in IQ2015 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/7f74a45a346049b090efdde7439da2fa). The Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®) increased to 53.0 in Jan from 52.7 in Dec (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8e3dcd3441ab4a48b0e5c1c95742e8fc). New export orders increased moderately in Jan with increases in business from France, German, Japan, Poland, USA and the Middle East. Rob Dobson, Senior Economist at Markit that compiles the Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI^®, finds that manufacturing conditions suggest growth at a quarterly rate of 0.2 percent in Jan (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8e3dcd3441ab4a48b0e5c1c95742e8fc). Table UK provides the economic indicators for the United Kingdom.

Table UK, UK Economic Indicators

CPI	Dec month ∆%: 0.0 Dec 12-month ∆%: 0.5 Blog 1/18/15
Output/Input Prices	Output Prices: Dec 12-month NSA ∆%: -0.8; excluding food, petroleum ∆%: 0.8 Input Prices: Dec 12-month NSA ∆%: -10.7 Excluding ∆%: -1.9 Blog 1/18/15
GDP Growth	IVQ2014 prior quarter ∆% 0.5; year earlier same quarter ∆%: 2.7 Blog 3/31/13 4/28/13 5/26/13 7/28/13 8/25/13 9/29/13 10/27/13 12/1/13 12/22/13 2/2/14 3/2/14 4/6/14 5/4/14 5/25/14 6/29/14 7/27/14 8/17/14 10/5/14 10/26/14 11/30/14 12/28/14 2/1/15
Industrial Production	Dec 2014/Dec 2013 ∆%: Production Industries 0.5; Manufacturing 2.4 Blog 2/15/15
Retail Sales	Dec month ∆%: 0.4 Dec 12-month ∆%: 4.3 Blog 2/1/15
Labor Market	Sep-Nov Unemployment Rate: 5.8%; Claimant Count 2.6%; Earnings Growth 1.7% Blog 1/25/15 LMGDP 11/16/14
GDP and the Labor Market	IIIQ2014 Weekly Hours 103.4, GDP 103.3, Employment 103.7 IQ2008 =100 GDP IIIQ14 103.3 IQ2008=100 Blog 11/16/14
Trade Balance	Balance SA Aug minus ₤2895 million Exports Dec ∆%: -0.2; Oct-Dec ∆%: -0.1 Imports Dec ∆%: -2.2 Oct-Dec ∆%: -2.2 Blog 2/15/15

Links to blog comments in Table UK:

2/1/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html

1/25/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/01/competitive-currency-conflicts-world.html

1/18/15 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/01/exchange-rate-conflicts-squeeze-of.html

12/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

10/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/financial-oscillations-world-inflation.html

10/5/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/world-financial-turbulence-twenty-seven.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

7/27/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

5/4/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html

4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html

3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html

2/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

12/22/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html

12/1/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/exit-risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html

10/27/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/twenty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html

9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html

7/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html

5/26/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

4/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_28.html

03/31/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

The UK Office for National Statistics provides the output of production industries with revisions. Table VH-1 incorporates the latest available data for Dec 2014 with revised weights (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/iop/index-of-production/december-2014/index.html). Manufacturing accounts for 69.4 percent of the production industries of the UK and increased 2.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2014. Capital goods industries increased 5.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2014 after increasing 3.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2014, 2.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014, 3.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2014 and 2.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014. Output of capital goods increased 2.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2014. Output of capital goods industries decreased 1.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013, increasing 1.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2013. Capital goods industries had been growing at very high rates during the current cyclical recovery but falling from the unsustainable high of 12.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2011. Mining and quarrying increased 12.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2013 and 4.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013, decreasing 2.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2014. Mining and quarrying increased 3.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014 and fell 0.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2014. The 12-month rates of growth of the entire index of production industries registered declines for all 12 months from Mar 2011 to Aug 2013 with exception of 0.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2013. With exception of most months for capital goods and Sep to Dec 2012 for consumer durables, 12-month percentage changes of all segments are mostly negative from Jan to Dec 2012. Energy and mining have been drivers of decline. The upper part of Table VH-1 provides rates of change of yearly output. Manufacturing output fell 9.4 percent in 2009 after falling 2.8 percent in 2008 but grew at 4.7 percent in the initial phase of the recovery in 2010 and 1.8 percent in 2011 but fell 1.3 percent in 2012 and declined 0.7 percent in 2013. Manufacturing grew 2.7 percent in 2014.

Table VH-1, UK, Output of the Production Industries, Chained Volume Indices of Gross Value Added, 12-Month ∆%

	PROD IND	MNG	MFG	CON DUR	CON NDUR	CAP	ENERGY
Weight	1000	156.8	693.6	58.6	195.6	252.8	235.6
2010	3.1	-3.9	4.7	-2.6	-0.3	10.7	-2.1
2011	-0.8	-14.1	1.8	0.2	-0.8	6.6	-10.7
2012	-2.7	-10.8	-1.3	-2.0	-3.4	1.4	-8.7
2013	-0.5	-2.5	-0.7	-1.8	-1.0	1.5	-3.8
2014	1.4	-0.2	2.7	5.6	0.6	2.9	-3.6

		PROD IND	MNG	MFG	CON DUR	CON NDUR	CAP	ENERGY
2012	Oct	-4.6	-21.5	-1.8	5.9	-3.8	0.3	-14.5
	Nov	-3.3	-13.7	-2.4	1.9	-5.1	-0.7	-8.8
	Dec	-2.5	-8.7	-1.8	2.4	-5.4	2.5	-6.4
2013	Jan	-3.3	-7.0	-3.6	0.4	-6.2	1.8	-5.6
	Feb	-2.7	-9.1	-2.5	-4.5	-5.1	3.0	-8.8
	Mar	-1.9	-13.1	-1.1	2.0	-3.6	3.6	-6.3
	Apr	-2.0	-7.0	-1.4	-1.6	-0.3	2.7	-6.2
	May	-2.1	-3.0	-2.3	-3.6	1.8	-0.3	-4.6
	Jun	0.9	-2.9	1.5	0.3	1.7	2.6	-5.8
	Jul	-1.7	-5.7	-1.5	-2.5	0.6	0.2	-6.1
	Aug	-1.9	-9.0	-1.0	-1.5	-2.3	0.4	-8.4
	Sep	2.6	14.1	0.2	-1.7	-1.5	1.9	6.4
	Oct	2.8	12.4	1.5	-6.5	0.5	2.3	2.9
	Nov	1.8	2.4	1.5	-	0.6	1.6	-0.7
	Dec	1.3	4.0	0.8	-2.7	2.6	-1.9	-0.2
2014	Jan	1.5	-2.6	2.2	1.2	-2.4	1.3	-5.3
	Feb	2.6	5.0	3.4	7.2	1.7	2.3	-0.6
	Mar	2.4	9.4	2.6	0.5	2.4	1.2	-0.7
	Apr	2.7	3.8	4.3	3.4	2.0	3.4	-4.2
	May	1.7	3.6	2.5	2.7	-1.4	2.7	-2.4
	Jun	0.8	-2.3	2.0	3.2	-1.6	3.0	-3.6
	Jul	1.2	-2.6	2.6	5.2	-0.5	2.1	-3.8
	Aug	1.3	-5.0	3.2	5.8	2.8	2.9	-4.9
	Sep	0.7	-4.1	2.4	8.9	0.9	3.1	-5.3
	Oct	0.8	-0.7	1.9	9.2	0.7	2.7	-1.5
	Nov	1.1	-0.9	3.0	8.2	2.2	3.9	-4.2
	Dec	0.5	-5.0	2.4	12.8	-0.1	5.7	-6.3

Notes: PROD IND: Production Industries; MNG: Mining; MFG: Manufacturing; ENGY: Energy; CON DUR: Consumer Durables; CONS NDUR: Consumer Nondurables; CAP: Capital Goods

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/iop/index-of-production/december-2014/index.html

Percentage changes in the production industries and major components in a month relative to the prior month are shown in Table VH-2. The UK index of production decreased 0.2 percent in Dec 2014 with manufacturing increasing 0.1 percent, capital goods increasing 1.3 percent and energy decreasing 1.3 percent. The UK index of production changed 0.0 in Nov 2014 with manufacturing increasing 0.8 percent and capital goods 0.6 percent while energy fell 2.5 percent. The UK index of production decreased 0.2 percent in Oct 2014 with decrease of manufacturing of 0.7 percent and decrease of capital goods of 1.0 percent. Energy increased 1.1 percent. The UK index of production increased 0.7 percent in Sep 2014 with increase of manufacturing of 0.6 percent and increase of capital goods of 2.3 percent. Energy increased 1.2 percent and mining and quarrying increased 3.2 percent. Fluctuations of monthly production are quite wide.

Table VH-2, UK, Output of the Production Industries, Chained Volume Indices of Gross Value Added, Latest Month on Previous Month ∆%

		PROD IND	MNG	MFG	CONS DUR	CON NDUR	CAP	ENERGY
Weight		1000	156.8	693.6	58.6	252.8	244.1	235.8
2012	Oct	-0.6	-0.5	-1.5	2.7	-2.6	-1.0	0.6
	Nov	0.7	6.7	-0.3	-4.2	-0.7	0.1	3.8
	Dec	0.9	1.3	1.4	2.1	0.3	3.2	0.4
2013	Jan	-0.9	1.0	-1.3	0.1	0.8	-1.6	0.5
	Feb	0.2	-1.0	-0.3	-7.5	-0.2	-1.0	-1.4
	Mar	0.2	-4.7	1.2	7.0	-	2.0	-0.7
	Apr	-0.2	3.7	-0.9	-0.3	1.0	-1.0	1.3
	May	0.5	2.5	0.4	-2.6	2.3	-1.2	0.4
	Jun	1.0	1.7	1.2	0.9	-0.7	1.9	-1.0
	Jul	-0.3	0.3	-0.5	-	-0.5	0.1	0.8
	Aug	-0.4	0.5	-0.6	-	-2.6	-1.6	-
	Sep	1.3	2.2	1.4	0.8	1.6	2.1	1.7
	Oct	-0.4	-2.0	-0.2	-2.3	-0.7	-0.6	-2.7
	Nov	-0.3	-2.8	-0.3	2.5	-0.6	-0.6	0.2
	Dec	0.4	2.8	0.6	-0.6	2.2	-0.4	0.9
2014	Jan	-0.6	-5.4	0.1	4.1	-4.0	1.7	-4.6
	Feb	1.2	6.8	0.9	-2.0	4.0	-	3.4
	Mar	-	-0.7	0.5	0.3	0.7	0.8	-0.8
	Apr	0.2	-1.7	0.7	2.5	0.6	1.2	-2.3
	May	-0.5	2.3	-1.4	-3.2	-1.1	-1.8	2.3
	Jun	0.1	-4.1	0.7	1.3	-1.0	2.2	-2.2
	Jul	0.2	-	0.2	1.9	0.6	-0.8	0.6
	Aug	-0.3	-2.0	-	0.6	0.7	-0.8	-1.2
	Sep	0.7	3.2	0.6	3.7	-0.3	2.3	1.2
	Oct	-0.2	1.5	-0.7	-2.0	-0.8	-1.0	1.1
	Nov	-	-2.9	0.8	1.5	0.9	0.6	-2.5
	Dec	-0.2	-1.4	0.1	3.7	-0.1	1.3	-1.3

Notes: PROD IND: Production Industries; MNG: Mining; MFG: Manufacturing; ENGY: Energy; CON DUR: Consumer Durables; CONS NDUR: Consumer Nondurables; CAP: Capital Goods

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/iop/index-of-production/december-2014/index.html

Table VH-3 provides the breakdown of production in 12-month and monthly growth and percentage contributions.

Table VH-3, UK, Growth Rates and Percentage Point Contributions to the Index of Production

Summary Description	% of production	Quarter on previous quarter growth (%)	Contribution to production (% points)
Index of Production	100.0	0.1	0.1
Total Mining & Quarrying	15.7	0.5	0.06
Coal & Lignite	0.1	-6.3	0.00
Crude petroleum & Natural gas	12.9	0.2	0.02
Other mining & Quarrying	2.6	1.3	0.05
Total Manufacturing	69.4	0.2	0.17
Food, beverages and tobacco	10.1	0.7	0.07
Textiles and leather products	2.2	-3.9	-0.08
Wood, paper and printing	4.9	-0.9	-0.04
Coke and petroleum	1.4	6.1	0.07
Chemical Products	4.0	0.3	0.01
Pharmaceutical Products	6.0	-2.3	-0.13
Rubber and plastic products	5.3	-0.1	-0.01
Metal products	7.4	0.5	0.03
Computer, electronic & optical	4.4	3.3	0.15
Electrical equipment	2.0	0.0	0.00
Machinery and equipment	5.4	-3.3	-0.17
Transport equipment	10.3	2.8	0.34
Other manufacturing & repair	6.1	-1.5	-0.09
Total Electricity & Gas	7.1	-2.7	-0.19
Electric power generation, transmission & distribution	4.7	-0.1	0.00
Manufacture of gas; distribution of gaseous fuels through mains; steam & aircon supply	2.4	-8.3	-0.19
Total Water	7.9	0.5	0.04
Water collection, Treatment & Supply	2.1	-0.7	-0.02
Sewerage	2.4	3.6	0.08
Waste Collection, Treatment & Disposal Activities; Materials Recovery	3.3	-0.8	-0.03
Remediation Activities & Other Waste Management Services	0.1	-1.5	0.00

Sector	Summary Description	% of production	Month on previous month growth (%)	Contribution to production (% points)
IoP	Index of Production	100.0	-0.2	-0.2
Sector B	Total Mining & Quarrying	15.7	-1.4	-0.20
5	Coal & Lignite	0.1	-1.6	0.00
6	Crude petroleum & Natural gas	12.9	-3.1	-0.30
789	Other mining & Quarrying	2.6	2.9	0.11
Sector C	Total Manufacturing	69.4	0.1	0.09
CA	Food, beverages and tobacco	10.1	0.6	0.06
CB	Textiles and leather products	2.2	-4.4	-0.08
CC	Wood, paper and printing	4.9	-1.9	-0.09
CD	Coke and petroleum	1.4	2.9	0.03
CE	Chemical Products	4.0	-1.8	-0.07
CF	Pharmaceutical Products	6.0	1.1	0.06
CG	Rubber and plastic products	5.3	0.5	0.03
CH	Metal products	7.4	-1.5	-0.11
CI	Computer, electronic & optical	4.4	6.7	0.32
CJ	Electrical equipment	2.0	0.7	0.02
CK	Machinery and equipment	5.4	0.9	0.04
CL	Transport equipment	10.3	1.0	0.12
CM	Other manufacturing & repair	6.1	-3.6	-0.23
Sector D	Total Electricity & Gas	7.1	0.6	0.04
35.1	Electric power generation, transmission & distribution	7.1	1.5	0.07
35.2-3	Manufacture of gas; distribution of gaseous fuels through mains; steam & aircon supply	4.7	-1.5	-0.03
Sector E	Total Water	2.4	-1.6	-0.13
36	Water collection, Treatment & Supply	7.9	-1.6	-0.03
37	Sewerage	2.1	-2.3	-0.06
38	Waste Collection, Treatment & Disposal Activities; Materials Recovery	2.4	-1.3	-0.04
39	Remediation Activities & Other Waste Management Services	3.3	0.2	0.00

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/iop/index-of-production/december-2014/index.html

The UK’s trade account is in Table VH-4. In Dec 2014, the UK ran a deficit in trade of goods and services (total trade) of ₤2895 million. The deficit in trade of goods was ₤10,154 million and ₤9214 million in goods excluding oil. A surplus in services of ₤7259 million contributed to reducing the overall deficit in goods and services (-₤10,154 million plus ₤7259 million equal to ₤2895 million). Services have contributed to lower deficits and have softened the impact of the global recession on the UK economy. Exports of goods and services decreased 0.2 percent in Dec 2014 and decreased 0.1 percent in the quarter Oct 2014-Dec 2014 relative to the same quarter a year earlier with imports decreasing 2.2 percent in Dec and decreasing 2.2 percent in Oct 2014-Oct 2014 relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Excluding oil, UK exports of goods decreased 1.0 percent in Dec and increased 1.3 percent in Oct 2014-Dec 2014 relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Imports of goods excluding oil increased 1.0 percent in Dec and increased 1.4 percent in Oct 2014-Dec 2014 relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Services exports decreased 0.6 percent in Dec and increased 1.7 percent in O 2014-Dec 2014 relative to the same quarter a year earlier while services imports increased 0.8 percent in Dec and decreased 7.9 percent in Oct 2014-Dec 2014 relative to the same quarter a year earlier.

Table VH-4, Value of UK Trade in Goods and Services, Balance of Payments Basis, ₤ Million SA and ∆%

	₤ Million SA Dec 2014	Month ∆%    Dec 2014	Oct 2014-Dec 2014 ∆% Oct 2013-Dec 2013
Total Trade
Exports	42,101	-0.2	-0.1
Imports	44,996	-2.2	-2.2
Balance	-2,895
Trade in Goods
Exports	24,631	0.1	-1.3
Imports	34,785	2.7	-0.4
Balance	-10,154
Trade in Goods Excluding Oil
Exports	22,119	-1.0	1.3
Imports	31,333	1.0	1.4
Balance	-9,214
Trade in Services
Exports	17,470	-0.6	1.7
Imports	10,211	0.8	-7.9
Balance	7,259

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/uktrade/uk-trade/december-2014/index.html

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015.