US Consumer Price Index Increased 7.9 Percent in 12 Months Ending in Feb 2022, which is the Highest Increase since Jan 1982, Recovery Without Hiring, Ten Million Fewer Full-Time Jobs in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth Underperforming Below Trend Worldwide, Theory and Reality of Cyclical Slow Growth, Youth and Middle Age Unemployment, United States Inflation, United States International Trade, Increasing Trade Balance Deficit, Stagflation Risks, Worldwide Fiscal, Monetary and External Imbalances, World Cyclical Slow Growth, and Government Intervention in Globalization
Carlos M. Pelaez
© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022.
IA1 Hiring Collapse
IA2 Labor Underutilization
ICA3 Fifteen Million Fewer Full-time Jobs
IA4 Theory and Reality of Cyclical Slow Growth Not Secular Stagnation: Youth and Middle-Age Unemployment
IIA United States International Trade
IC United States Inflation
IC Long-term US Inflation
ID Current US Inflation
III World Financial Turbulence
IV Global Inflation
V World Economic Slowdown
VA United States
VB Japan
VC China
VD Euro Area
VE Germany
VF France
VG Italy
VH United Kingdom
VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets
VII Economic Indicators
VIII Interest Rates
IX Conclusion
References
Appendixes
Appendix I The Great Inflation
IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies
IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact
IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort
IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis
Preamble. United States total public debt outstanding is $30.2 trillion and debt held by the public $23.8 trillion (https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/debt-to-the-penny). The Net International Investment Position of the United States, or foreign debt, is $16.1 trillion (https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2021-12/intinv321.pdf https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2022/01/increase-in-dec-2021-of-nonfarm-payroll.html). The United States current account deficit is 3.7 percent of GDP in IIIQ2021 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2022/01/increase-in-dec-2021-of-nonfarm-payroll.html). The Treasury deficit of the United States reached $2.8 trillion in fiscal year 2021 (https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/). Total assets of Federal Reserve Banks reached $8.9 trillion on Mar 9, 2022 and securities held outright reached $8.4 trillion (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/h41.htm#h41tab1). US GDP nominal NSA reached $24.0 trillion in IVQ2021 (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). Total Treasury interest-bearing, marketable debt held by private investors increased from $3635 billion in 2007 to $16,439 billion in Sep 2021 (Fiscal Year 2021) or increase by 352.2 percent (https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/treasury-bulletin/).
Chart CPI-H provides 12 months percentage changes of the US Consumer Price Index from 1982 to 2022. The increase of 7.9 percent of the US CPI in the 12 months ending in Feb 2022 is the highest since 8.4 percent in Jan 1982 in the beginning adjustment from the Great Inflation.
Chart CPI-H, US, Consumer Price Index, 12-Month Percentage Change, NSA, 1982-2022
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/cpi/data.htm
Chart VII-4 of the Energy Information Administration provides the price of the Natural Gas Futures Contract increasing from $2.581 on Jan 4, 2021 to $4.527 per million Btu on Mar 8, 2022 or 75.4 percent.
Chart VII-4, US, Natural Gas Futures Contract 1
Source: US Energy Information Administration
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngc1d.htm
Chart VII-5 of the US Energy Administration provides US field production of oil decreasing from a peak of 12,966 thousand barrels per day in Nov 2019 to the final point of 11.567 thousand barrels per day in Dec 2021.
Chart VII-5, US, US, Field Production of Crude Oil, Thousand Barrels Per Day
Source: US Energy Information Administration
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS2&f=M
Chart VI-6 of the US Energy Information Administration provides imports of crude oil. Imports increased from 245,369 thousand barrels per day in Jan 2021 to 265,228 thousand in Dec 2021.
Chart VII-6, US, US, Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, Thousand Barrels
Source: US Energy Information Administration
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTTIMUS1&f=M
Chart VI-7 of the EIA provides US Petroleum Consumption, Production, Imports, Exports and Net Imports 1950-2020. There was sharp increase in production in the final segment that reached consumption in 2020.
Chart VI-7, US Petroleum Consumption, Production, Imports, Exports and Net Imports 1950-2020, Million Barrels Per Day
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/imports-and-exports.php
V World Economic Slowdown. Table V-1 is constructed with the database of the IMF (https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/index.aspx) to show GDP in dollars in 2018 and the growth rate of real GDP of the world and selected regional countries from 2018 to 2021. The data illustrate the concept often repeated of “two-speed recovery” of the world economy from the recession of 2007 to 2009. There is a major change in the sharp contraction of world real GDP of 3.1 percent in 2020 in the probable global recession originating in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The IMF has changed its measurement of growth of the world economy to 3.6 percent in 2018 and reducing the forecast rate of growth to 2.9 percent in 2019, minus 3.1 percent in 2020 and 5.8 percent in 2021. Slow-speed recovery occurs in the “major advanced economies” of the G7 that are projected to grow at much lower rates than world output, 0.4 percent on average from 2018 to 2021, in contrast with 2.2 percent for the world as a whole. While the world would grow 9.3 percent in the four years from 2018 to 2021, the G7 as a whole would grow 1.6 percent. The “two speed” concept is in reference to the growth of the 150 countries labeled as emerging and developing economies (EMDE). The EMDEs would grow cumulatively 14.2 percent or at the average yearly rate of 3.4 percent.
Table V-1, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Real GDP Growth
| GDP USD Billions 2018 | Real GDP ∆% | Real GDP ∆% | Real GDP ∆% | Real GDP ∆% | |
| World | 135,762 | 3.6 | 2.9 | -3.1 | 5.8 |
| G7 | 40,783 | 2.0 | 1.6 | -6.2 | 4.5 |
| Canada | 1,842 | 2.0 | 1.6 | -6.2 | 4.3 |
| France | 2,970 | 1.7 | 1.3 | -7.2 | 4.5 |
| DE | 4,343 | 1.5 | 0.6 | -7.0 | 5.2 |
| Italy | 2,406 | 0.8 | 0.3 | -9.1 | 4.8 |
| Japan | 5,578 | 0.3 | 0.7 | -5.2 | 3.0 |
| UK | 3,065 | 1.3 | 1.4 | -6.5 | 4.0 |
| US | 20,580 | 2.9 | 2.3 | -5.9 | 4.7 |
| Euro Area | NA | 1.9 | 1.2 | -7.5 | 4.7 |
| DE | 4,343 | 1.5 | 0.6 | -7.0 | 5.2 |
| France | 2,970 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 7.2 | 4.5 |
| Italy | 2,406 | 0.8 | 0.3 | -9.1 | 4.8 |
| POT | 334 | 2.6 | 2.2 | -8.0 | 5.0 |
| Ireland | 389 | 8.3 | 5.5 | -6.8 | 6.3 |
| Greece | 312 | 1.9 | 1.9 | -10.0 | 5.1 |
| Spain | 1,854 | 2.4 | 2.0 | -8.0 | 4.3 |
| EMDE | 80,401 | 4.5 | 3.7 | -1.1 | 6.6 |
| Brazil | 3,383 | 1.3 | 1.1 | -5.3 | 2.9 |
| Russia | 4,258 | 2.5 | 1.3 | -5.5 | 3.5 |
| India | 10,413 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 7.4 |
| China | 25,294 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 1.2 | 9.2 |
Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries); POT: Portugal
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook databank
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/index.aspx
Continuing high rates of unemployment in advanced economies constitute another characteristic of the database of the WEO (Continuing high rates of unemployment in advanced economies constitute another characteristic of the database of the WEO (https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2019/02/weodata/index.aspx). Table V-2 is constructed with the WEO database to provide rates of unemployment from 2017 to 2021 for major countries and regions. In fact, unemployment rates for 2017 in Table V-2 are high for all countries: unusually high for countries with high rates most of the time and unusually high for countries with low rates most of the time. The rates of unemployment are particularly high in 2017 for the countries with sovereign debt difficulties in Europe: 8.9 percent for Portugal (POT), 6.7 percent for Ireland, 21.5 percent for Greece, 17.2 percent for Spain and 11.3 percent for Italy, which is lower but still high. The G7 rate of unemployment is 5.0 percent. Unemployment rates are not likely to decrease substantially if relative slow cyclical growth persists in advanced economies. There are sharp increases in the rates of unemployment in 2020 in the probable global recession originating in the lockdown of economy activity in the COVID-19 event. The rate of unemployment increases to 7.8 percent for the G7 countries and 10.4 percent for the euro area.
Table V-2, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Unemployment Rate as Percent of Labor Force
| % Labor Force 2017 | % Labor Force 2018 | % Labor Force 2019 | % Labor Force 2020 | % Labor Force 2021 | |
| World | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| G7 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 7.8 | 6.9 |
| Canada | 6.3 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 7.2 |
| France | 9.4 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 10.4 | 10.4 |
| DE | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 3.5 |
| Italy | 11.3 | 10.6 | 10.0 | 12.7 | 10.5 |
| Japan | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 2.3 |
| UK | 4.4 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 4.4 |
| US | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 10.4 | 9.1 |
| Euro Area | 9.1 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 10.4 | 8.9 |
| DE | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 3.5 |
| France | 9.4 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 10.4 | 10.4 |
| Italy | 11.3 | 10.6 | 10.0 | 12.7 | 10.5 |
| POT | 8.9 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 13.9 | 8.7 |
| Ireland | 6.7 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 12.1 | 7.9 |
| Greece | 21.5 | 19.3 | 17.3 | 22.3 | 19.0 |
| Spain | 17.2 | 15.3 | 14.1 | 20.8 | 17.5 |
| EMDE | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Brazil | 12.8 | 12.3 | 11.9 | 14.7 | 13.5 |
| Russia | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 4.8 |
| India | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| China | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 3.8 |
Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries)
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/index.aspx
There are references to adverse periods as “lost decades.” There is a more prolonged and adverse period in Table V-3A: the lost economic cycle of the Global Recession with economic growth underperforming below trend worldwide. Economic contractions were relatively high but not comparable to the decline of GDP during the Great Depression. In fact, during the Great Depression in the four years of 1930 to 1933, US GDP in constant dollars fell 26.3 percent cumulatively and fell 45.3 percent in current dollars (Pelaez and Pelaez, Financial Regulation after the Global Recession (2009a), 150-2, Pelaez and Pelaez, Globalization and the State, Vol. II (2009b), 205-7 and revisions in http://bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). Data are available for the 1930s only on a yearly basis. The contraction of GDP in the current cycle of the Global Recession was much lower, 3.8 percent (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2022/02/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-of-70-percent-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2022/01/fomc-states-with-inflation-well-above-2.html). US economic growth has been at only 2.2 percent on average in the cyclical expansion in the 50 quarters from IIIQ2009 to IVQ2021 and in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021). Boskin (2010Sep) measures that the US economy grew at 6.2 percent in the first four quarters and 4.5 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the second quarter of 1975; and at 7.7 percent in the first four quarters and 5.8 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the first quarter of 1983 (Professor Michael J. Boskin, Summer of Discontent, Wall Street Journal, Sep 2, 201 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882304575465462926649950.html). There are new calculations using the revision of US GDP and personal income data since 1929 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) and the second estimate of GDP for IVQ2021 (https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2022-02/gdp4q21_2nd.pdf). The average of 7.7 percent in the first four quarters of major cyclical expansions is in contrast with the rate of growth in the first four quarters of the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010 of only 2.9 percent obtained by dividing GDP of $15,605.6 billion in IIQ2010 by GDP of $15,161.8 billion in IIQ2009 {[($15,605.6/$15,161.8) -1]100 = 2.9%], or accumulating the quarter on quarter growth rates (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2022/02/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-of-70-percent-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2022/01/fomc-states-with-inflation-well-above-2.html). The expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1986 was at the average annual growth rate of 5.7 percent, 5.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1986, 5.1 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1986, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1988, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1989, 4.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1989, 4.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1989, 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1989, 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1990, 4.4 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1990, 4.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1990, 4.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1990, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1992, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1994, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1994, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1994, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1994, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1995, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1995 and at 7.9 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2022/02/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-of-70-percent-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2022/01/fomc-states-with-inflation-well-above-2.html). The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dates a contraction of the US from IQ1990 (Jul) to IQ1991 (Mar) (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html). The expansion lasted until another contraction beginning in IQ2001 (Mar). US GDP contracted 1.4 percent from the pre-recession peak of $9404.5 billion of chained 2012 dollars in IIIQ1990 to the trough of $9275.3 billion in IQ1991 (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IVQ2021 and in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021) would have accumulated to 51.3 percent. GDP in IVQ2021 would be $23,849.2 billion (in constant dollars of 2012) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $4038.6 billion than actual $19,810.6 billion. There are more than four trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 23.2 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 13.3 percent of the effective labor force with the largest part originating in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2022/03/increase-in-feb-2022-of-nonfarm-payroll.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2022/02/increase-in-jan-2022-of-nonfarm-payroll.html). Unemployment is decreasing while employment is increasing in initial adjustment of the lockdown of economic activity in the global recession resulting from the COVID-19 event (https://www.bls.gov/covid19/effects-of-covid-19-pandemic-and-response-on-the-employment-situation-news-release.htm). US GDP in IVQ2021 is 16.9 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $15,767.1 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $19,810.6 billion in IVQ2021 or 25.6 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.6 percent. Professor John H. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. Cochrane (2016May02) measures GDP growth in the US at average 3.5 percent per year from 1950 to 2000 and only at 1.76 percent per year from 2000 to 2015 with only at 2.0 percent annual equivalent in the current expansion. Cochrane (2016May02) proposes drastic changes in regulation and legal obstacles to private economic activity. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 3.0 percent per year from Jan 1919 to Jan 2022. Growth at 3.0 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 106.8161 in Dec 2007 to 161.9673 in Jan 2022. The actual index NSA in Jan 2022 is 99.1061 which is 38.8 percent below trend. The underperformance of manufacturing in Mar-Nov 2020 originates partly in the earlier global recession augmented by the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021). Manufacturing grew at the average annual rate of 3.3 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2006. Growth at 3.3 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 106.8161 in Dec 2007 to 168.7391 in Jan 2022. The actual index NSA in Jan 2022 is 99.1061, which is 41.3 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 1.7 percent between Dec 1986 and Jan 2022. Using trend growth of 1.7 percent per year, the index would increase to 135.4378 in Jan 2022. The output of manufacturing at 99.1061 in Jan 2022 is 26.8 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Using the NAICS (North American Industry Classification System), manufacturing output fell from the high of 108.5167 in Jul 2007 to the low of 84.7321 in May 2009 or 21.9 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased from 84.7321 in Apr 2009 to 100.0330 in Jan 2022 or 18.1 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased at the annual equivalent rate of 3.5 percent from Dec 1986 to Dec 2006. Growth at 3.5 percent would increase the NAICS manufacturing output index from 104.6868 in Dec 2007 to 169.9423 in Jan 2022. The NAICS index at 100.0330 in Jan 2021 is 41.1 below trend. The NAICS manufacturing output index grew at 1.7 percent annual equivalent from Dec 1999 to Dec 2006. Growth at 1.7 percent would raise the NAICS manufacturing output index from 104.6868 in Dec 2007 to 132.7380 in Jan 2022. The NAICS index at 100.0330 in Jan 2022 is 24.6 percent below trend under this alternative calculation.
Table V-3A, Cycle 2007-2021, Percentage Contraction, Average Growth Rate in Expansion, Average Growth Rate in Whole Cycle and GDP Percent Below Trend
| Contraction ∆% | Expansion Average ∆% | Whole Cycle Average ∆% | Below Trend Percent | |
| USA | 3.8 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 16.9 |
| Japan | 8.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | NA |
| Euro Area 19 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 18.0 |
| France | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 12.9 |
| Germany | 7.0 | 1.5 | 0.9 | NA |
| UK | 5.9 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 17.5 |
Note: AV: Average. Expansion and Whole Cycle AV ∆% calculated with quarterly growth, seasonally adjusted and quarterly adjusted when applicable, rates and converted into annual equivalent except for average quarterly rate for the UK. Combines the Global Recession after 2007 and the COVID-19 Global Recession after IQ2020.
Data reported periodically in this blog.
Source: Country Statistical Agencies https://www.bls.gov/bls/other.htm https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/related-sites.html
Manufacturing is underperforming in the lost cycle of the global recession. Manufacturing (NAICS) in Jan 2022 is lower by 7.8 percent relative to the peak in Jun 2007, as shown in Chart V-3A. Manufacturing (SIC) in Jan 2022 at 99.1061 is lower by 10.6 percent relative to the peak at 110.8954 in Jun 2007. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 3.0 percent per year from Jan 1919 to Jan 2022. Growth at 3.0 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 106.8161 in Dec 2007 to 161.9673 in Jan 2022. The actual index NSA in Jan 2022 is 99.1061 which is 38.8 percent below trend. The underperformance of manufacturing in Mar-Nov 2020 originates partly in the earlier global recession augmented by the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021). Manufacturing grew at the average annual rate of 3.3 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2006. Growth at 3.3 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 106.8161 in Dec 2007 to 168.7391 in Jan 2022. The actual index NSA in Jan 2022 is 99.1061, which is 41.3 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 1.7 percent between Dec 1986 and Jan 2022. Using trend growth of 1.7 percent per year, the index would increase to 135.4378 in Jan 2022. The output of manufacturing at 99.1061 in Jan 2022 is 26.8 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Using the NAICS (North American Industry Classification System), manufacturing output fell from the high of 108.5167 in Jul 2007 to the low of 84.7321 in May 2009 or 21.9 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased from 84.7321 in Apr 2009 to 100.0330 in Jan 2022 or 18.1 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased at the annual equivalent rate of 3.5 percent from Dec 1986 to Dec 2006. Growth at 3.5 percent would increase the NAICS manufacturing output index from 104.6868 in Dec 2007 to 169.9423 in Jan 2022. The NAICS index at 100.0330 in Jan 2021 is 41.1 below trend. The NAICS manufacturing output index grew at 1.7 percent annual equivalent from Dec 1999 to Dec 2006. Growth at 1.7 percent would raise the NAICS manufacturing output index from 104.6868 in Dec 2007 to 132.7380 in Jan 2022. The NAICS index at 100.0330 in Jan 2022 is 24.6 percent below trend under this alternative calculation.
Chart V-3A, United States Manufacturing (NAICS) NSA, Dec 2007 to Jan 2022
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm
Chart V-3A, United States Manufacturing (NAICS) NSA, Jun 2007 to Jan 2022
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm
Chart V-3B provides the civilian noninstitutional population of the United States, or those available for work. The civilian noninstitutional population increased from 231.713 million in Jun 2007 to 263.202 million in Jan 2022 (“data affected by changes in population controls”) or 31.489 million.
Chart V-3B, United States, Civilian Noninstitutional Population, Million, NSA, Jan 2007 to Jan 2022
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Chart V-3C provides nonfarm payroll manufacturing jobs in the United States from Jan 2007 to Jan 2022. Nonfarm payroll manufacturing jobs fell from 13.987 million in Jun 2007 to 12.489 million in Jan 2022, or 1.498 million.
Chart V-3C, United States, Payroll Manufacturing Jobs, NSA, Jan 2007 to Jan 2022, Thousands
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Chart V-3D provides the index of US manufacturing (NAICS) from Jan 1972 to Jan 2022. The index continued increasing during the decline of manufacturing jobs after the early 1980s. There are likely effects of changes in the composition of manufacturing with also changes in productivity and trade. There is sharp decline in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021).
Chart V-3D, United States Manufacturing (NAICS) NSA, Jan 1972 to Jan 2022
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm
Chart V-3E provides the US noninstitutional civilian population, or those in condition of working, from Jan 1948, when first available, to Jan 2022. The noninstitutional civilian population increased from 170.042 million in Jun 1981 to 263.202 (“data affected by changes in population controls”) million in Jan 2022 or 93.160 million.
Chart V-3E, United States, Civilian Noninstitutional Population, Million, NSA, Jan 1948 to Jan 2022
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Chart V-3F provides manufacturing jobs in the United States from Jan 1939 to Jan 2022. Nonfarm payroll manufacturing jobs decreased from a peak of 18.890 million in Jun 1981 to 12.489 million in Jan 2022.
Chart V-3F, United States, Payroll Manufacturing Jobs, NSA, Jan 1939 to Jan 2022, Thousands
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
There is global stress in manufacturing. Table V-3B provides month and 12-month percentage changes of new orders in manufacturing and output of manufacturing in Germany.
Table V-3B, Germany, Manufacturing Orders and Manufacturing Output, ∆% Month and 12 Months
| MFG New Orders Month ∆% | MFG New Orders 12 Months ∆% | MFG Output Month ∆% | MFG Output 12 Month ∆% | |
| Dec 2021 | 2.8 | 7.7 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| Nov | 3.6 | 3.1 | 0.5 | -1.3 |
| Oct | -5.8 | -2.8 | 3.2 | -5.1 |
| Sep | 2.4 | 10.3 | -1.0 | -1.2 |
| Aug | -9.1 | 13.4 | -4.1 | 6.4 |
| Jul | 5.0 | 22.6 | 1.2 | 2.7 |
| Jun | 4.3 | 30.2 | -0.3 | 11.1 |
| May | -2.7 | 55.1 | -0.8 | 20.4 |
| Apr | 1.1 | 80.2 | -0.3 | 35.3 |
| Mar | 2.9 | 33.0 | 0.8 | 9.7 |
| Feb | 1.7 | 7.2 | -2.2 | -5.1 |
| Jan | 0.4 | -4.3 | 0.0 | -9.6 |
| Dec 2020 | -0.7 | 10.7 | 1.0 | 3.1 |
| Nov | 1.7 | 9.5 | 1.0 | -1.1 |
| Oct | 3.6 | 3.9 | 3.7 | -3.6 |
| Sep | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.6 | -5.3 |
| Aug | 4.4 | -3.8 | -0.4 | -14.0 |
| Jul | 4.8 | -6.4 | 2.2 | -11.2 |
| Jun | 28.2 | -6.3 | 11.6 | -6.9 |
| May | 13.1 | -33.5 | 11.6 | -28.3 |
| Apr | -27.7 | -38.4 | -22.2 | -30.4 |
| Mar | -15.4 | -12.1 | -10.8 | -8.5 |
| Feb | -2.8 | 0.3 | 1.4 | -3.2 |
| Jan | 5.9 | -1.0 | 2.7 | -4.1 |
| Dec 2019 | -0.4 | -7.1 | -2.0 | -4.5 |
| Nov | -2.0 | -8.5 | 0.5 | -6.9 |
| Oct | -0.5 | -5.4 | -1.1 | -5.6 |
| Sep | 1.3 | -1.8 | -1.0 | -1.1 |
| Aug | -0.5 | -9.0 | 0.3 | -7.4 |
| Jul | -0.4 | -1.8 | -0.5 | -0.6 |
| Jun | 1.2 | -11.0 | -0.8 | -14.4 |
| May | -1.1 | -3.6 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Apr | -0.8 | -5.2 | -2.7 | -3.9 |
| Mar | 1.6 | -6.2 | 0.7 | -3.4 |
| Feb | -4.0 | -7.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Jan | -3.3 | -3.6 | -0.8 | -3.1 |
| Dec 2018 | 2.5 | -8.2 | 0.8 | -6.7 |
| Dec 2017 | 3.4 | 3.9 | -0.6 | 3.7 |
| Dec 2016 | 4.8 | 11.2 | -1.8 | 2.0 |
| Dec 2015 | -1.4 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
Source: Federal Statistical Agency of Germany, https://www.destatis.de/EN/Home/_node.html
Table V-3 provides the latest available estimates of GDP for the regions and countries followed in this blog from IQ2012 to IIIQ2021 available now for all countries. Growth is weak throughout most of the world.
- Japan. The GDP of Japan increased 1.4 percent in IQ2012, 5.6 percent at SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) and increased 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier but part of the jump could be the low level a year earlier because of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan is experiencing difficulties with the overvalued yen because of worldwide capital flight originating in zero interest rates with risk aversion in an environment of softer growth of world trade. Japan’s GDP fell 0.9 percent in IIQ2012 at the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of minus 3.5 percent, which is much lower than 5.6 percent in IQ2012. Growth of 2.8 percent in IIQ2012 in Japan relative to IIQ2011 has effects of the low level of output because of Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IIIQ2012 at the SAAR of minus 1.5 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 at the SAAR of minus 0.3 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s grew 1.4 percent in IQ2013 at the SAAR of 5.6 percent and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.9 percent in IIQ2013 at the SAAR of 3.7 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP grew 1.0 percent in IIIQ2013 at the SAAR of 3.9 percent and increased 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Japan’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent at the SAAR of minus 0.5 percent, increasing 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IQ2014 at the SAAR of 3.3 percent and increased 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Japan’s GDP fell 1.8 percent at the SAAR of minus 7.1 percent and fell 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 at the SAAR of 0.4 percent and fell 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, Japan’s GDP grew 0.5 percent, at the SAAR of 1.9 percent, decreasing 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 1.5 percent in IQ2015 at the SAAR of 6.3 percent and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2015 at the SAAR of 0.6 percent and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2015 at the SAAR of 0.3 percent and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.1 percent in IVQ2015 at the SAAR of minus 0.5 percent and grew 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, the GDP of Japan increased 0.7 percent at the SAAR of 3.0 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IIQ2016 at the SAAR of minus 0.6 percent and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of Japan increased 0.2 percent at the SAAR of 0.6 percent and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2016 at the SAAR of 0.8 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, the GDP of Japan increased 0.8 percent at the SAAR of 3.3 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2017 at the SAAR of 1.6 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, the GDP of Japan increased 0.7 percent at the SAAR of 3.0 percent and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2017, at the SAAR of 0.7 percent, and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, the GDP of Japan increased 0.1 percent, at the SAAR of 0.5 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2018, at the SAAR of 1.3 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, the GDP of Japan contracted 0.8 percent at the SAAR of minus 3.1 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2018, at the SAAR of 0.1 percent and decreased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, the GDP of Japan increased 0.4 percent at the SAAR of 1.6 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2019, at the SAAR of 1.7 percent and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, the GDP of Japan decreased 0.1 percent at the SAAR of minus 0.5 percent and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP decreased 2.4 percent in IVQ2019, at the SAAR of minus 9.2 percent and decreased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2020, the GDP of Japan grew 0.3 percent at the SAAR of 1.2 percent and decreased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan contracted 8.0 percent in IIQ2020 at the SAAR of minus 28.5 percent and decreased 10.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2020, the GDP of Japan increased 5.1 percent at the SAAR of 22.1 percent and decreased 5.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 2.3 percent in IVQ2020 at the SAAR of 9.6 percent and decreased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2021, the GDP of Japan contracted 0.7 percent at the SAAR of minus 2.9 percent and decreased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2021 at the SAAR of 2.0 percent and increased 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2021, the GDP of Japan decreased 0.9 percent at the SAAR of minus 3.6 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier.
- China. China’s GDP grew 1.9 percent in IQ2012, annualizing to 7.8 percent, and 8.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 2.1 percent in IIQ2012, which annualizes to 8.7 percent, and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 1.8 percent in IIIQ2012, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and 7.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, China grew at 2.0 percent, which annualizes at 8.2 percent, and 8.1 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, China grew at 1.9 percent, which annualizes at 7.8 percent, and 7.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, China grew at 1.8 percent, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 2.1 percent in IIIQ2013, which annualizes at 8.7 percent, and increased 7.9 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 1.6 percent in IVQ2013, which annualized to 6.6 percent, and 7.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 7.5 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent in IQ2014 that is equivalent to 7.4 percent per year. GDP grew 7.6 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is annual equivalent 7.4 percent. In IIIQ2014, GDP grew 7.2 percent relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is 7.4 percent in annual equivalent. GDP grew 1.7 percent in IVQ2014, which is 7.0 percent in annual equivalent and 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2015, GDP grew 1.9 percent, which is equivalent to 7.8 in a year and 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 1.8 percent in IIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.4 percent in a year, and grew 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.7 percent in IIIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent in a year, and grew 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.6 percent in IVQ2015, which is equivalent to 6.6 percent in a year and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, GDP grew at 1.4 percent, which is equivalent to 5.7 percent in a year, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.9 percent in IIQ2016, which is annual equivalent to 7.8 percent, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, GDP grew at 1.7 percent, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent in a year and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, GDP grew at 1.6 percent, equivalent to 6.6 percent in a year, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 7.0 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased at 1.7 percent, which is 7.0 percent in annual equivalent. In IIQ2017, GDP grew at 1.7 percent, which is annual equivalent at 7.0 percent, and increased 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.6 percent in IIIQ2017, which is annual equivalent at 6.6 percent, and increased at 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, GDP grew 1.6 percent, which is annual equivalent to 6.6 percent, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.8 percent in IQ2018, which is annual equivalent at 7.4 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2018, GDP grew at 1.6 percent, which is annual equivalent to 6.6 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.4 percent in IIIQ2018, which is annual equivalent at 5.7 percent, and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2018, GDP grew at 1.5 percent, which is annual equivalent to 6.1 percent, and increased 6.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.6 percent in IQ2019, which is annual equivalent to 6.6 percent, and increased 6.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2019, GDP grew at 1.2 percent, which is annual equivalent to 4.9 percent and increased 6.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.4 percent in IIIQ2019, which is annual equivalent to 5.7 percent, and increased 5.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2019, GDP grew at 1.3 percent, which is annual equivalent to 5.3 percent, and increased 5.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP contracted minus 10.5 percent in IQ2020, which is annual equivalent to minus 35.8 percent, and contracted minus 6.9 percent in IQ2020 relative to a year earlier, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021). GDP grew at 11.6 percent in IIQ2020, which is equivalent to 55.1 percent in a year and grew 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2020, GDP grew 3.4 percent, which is annual equivalent at 14.3 percent, and grew 4.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 2.6 percent in IVQ2020, which is equivalent to 10.8 percent in a year, and grew 6.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2021, GDP grew 0.3 percent, which is annual equivalent at 1.2 percent, and grew 18.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 1.3 percent in IIQ2021, which is annual equivalent at 5.3 percent, and increased 7.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2021, GDP grew 0.7 percent, which is annual equivalent at 2.8 percent and increased 4.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 1.6 percent in IVQ2021, which is annual equivalent at 6.6 percent, and increased 4.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Growth rates of GDP of China in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier have been declining from 2011 to 2021.
- Euro Area. GDP fell 0.2 percent in the euro area in IQ2012 and decreased 0.5 in IQ2012 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP contracted 0.3 percent IIQ2012 and fell 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.1 percent and declined 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.4 percent relative to the prior quarter and fell 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, the GDP of the euro area fell 0.4 percent and decreased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2013, euro area GDP increased 0.3 percent and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2013 and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The euro area’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 0.7 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The euro area’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2016 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, euro area GDP increased 0.7 percent and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2017 and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.7 percent and grew 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area grew 0.9 percent in IVQ2017 and increased 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.1 percent and grew 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area grew 0.5 percent in IIQ2018 and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.6 percent in IVQ2018 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.7 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2019 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2019 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2020, the GDP of the euro area decreased 3.5 percent and decreased 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area contracted 11.7 percent in IIQ2020 and contracted 14.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2020, the GDP of the euro area increased 12.6 percent and contracted 4.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area contracted 0.4 percent in IVQ2020 and contracted 4.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2021, the GDP of the euro area contracted 0.2 percent and contracted 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 2.2 percent in IIQ2021 and grew 14.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2021, the GDP of the euro area increased 2.2 percent and grew 3.9 percent relative to a year earlier.
- Germany. The GDP of Germany increased 0.2 percent in IQ2012 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier but 1.0 percent when adjusted for calendar effects (CA). In IIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier but 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier when adjusted for calendar effects (CA). In IIIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IVQ2012 and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, Germany’s GDP decreased 0.5 percent and fell 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 1.1 percent and grew 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2013 and grew 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.9 percent in IQ2014 and grew 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Germany’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany decreased 0.5 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2015 and grew 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2015 and grew 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2015 and grew 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, the GDP of Germany increased 0.8 percent and grew 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 3.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of Germany increased 0.3 percent and grew 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2016 and grew 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, the GDP of Germany increased 1.2 percent and grew 3.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2017 and grew 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier and 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier adjusting for calendar effects (CA). In IIIQ2017, the GDP of Germany increased 0.9 percent and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier and 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2017, 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier and 3.7 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany decreased 0.4 percent in IQ2018 and grew 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier and 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2018, 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier and 1.8 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany decreased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2018, increasing 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier and 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2018, increasing 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier and 0.1 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany increased 1.1 percent in IQ2019, increasing 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier and increasing 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP contracted 0.5 percent in IIQ2019, increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier and increased 0.5 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2019, increasing 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier and increasing 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2019, increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP decreased 1.8 percent in IQ2020, decreased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier and decreased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany decreased 10.0 percent in IIQ2020, decreased 11.3 percent relative to a year earlier and decreased 11.3 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 9.0 percent in IIIQ2020, decreased 3.6 percent relative to a year earlier and decreased 3.7 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2020, decreased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier and decreased 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP decreased 1.9 percent in IQ2021, decreased 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier and decreased 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany increased 2.0 percent in IIQ2021, increased 10.4 percent relative to a year earlier and increased 10.0 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany increased 1.7 percent in IIIQ2021, increased 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier and increased 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier (CA).
- United States. Growth of US GDP in IQ2012 was 0.8 percent, at SAAR of 3.3 percent and higher by 2.6 percent relative to IQ2011. US GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2012, 1.8 percent at SAAR and 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, US GDP grew 0.2 percent, 0.7 percent at SAAR and 2.6 percent relative to IIIQ2011. In IVQ2012, US GDP grew 0.1 percent, 0.4 percent at SAAR and 1.6 percent relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, US GDP grew at 3.5 percent SAAR, 0.9 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.6 percent relative to the same quarter in 2012. In IIQ2013, US GDP grew at 0.6 percent in SAAR, 0.1 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.3 percent relative to IIQ2012. US GDP grew at 3.2 percent in SAAR in IIIQ2013, 0.8 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.9 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2022/02/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-of-70-percent-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2022/01/fomc-states-with-inflation-well-above-2.html). In IVQ2013, US GDP grew 0.7 percent at 2.9 percent SAAR and 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, US GDP decreased 0.4 percent, increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier and fell 1.4 percent at SAAR. In IIQ2014, US GDP increased 1.3 percent at 5.2 percent SAAR and increased 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP increased 1.2 percent in IIIQ2014 at 4.7 percent SAAR and increased 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, US GDP increased 0.4 percent at SAAR of 1.8 percent and increased 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IQ2015 at SAAR of 3.3 percent and grew 3.8 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.3 percent in IIQ2015, increasing 0.6 percent in the quarter and 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2015 at SAAR of 1.3 percent and grew 2.2 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 0.6 percent in IVQ2015, increasing 0.1 percent in the quarter and 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, US GDP grew 0.6 percent at SAAR of 2.4 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 1.2 percent in IIQ2016, increasing 0.3 percent in the quarter and 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, US GDP grew 0.6 percent at SAAR of 2.4 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.0 percent in IVQ2016, increasing 0.5 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, US GDP grew 0.5 percent at SAAR of 1.9 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.3 percent in IIQ2017, increasing 0.6 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, US GDP grew 0.7 percent at SAAR of 2.9 percent and increased 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 3.8 percent in IVQ2017, increasing 0.9 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, US GDP grew at SAAR of 3.1 percent, increasing 0.8 percent in the quarter, and increasing 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 3.4 percent in IIQ2018, increasing 0.8 percent in the quarter, and increasing 3.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, US GDP grew at SAAR of 1.9 percent, increasing 0.5 percent in the quarter, and increasing 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 0.9 percent in IVQ2018, increasing 0.2 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.4 percent, increasing 0.6 percent in the quarter and increasing 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 3.2 percent in IIQ2019, increasing 0.8 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.8 percent, increasing 0.7 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 1.9 percent in IVQ2019, increasing 0.5 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2020, US GDP contracted at SAAR of minus 5.1 percent, decreasing 1.3 percent in the quarter, and increasing 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2020, US GDP contracted at SAAR of minus 31.2 percent, decreasing 8.9 percent in the quarter and decreasing 9.1 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 33.8 percent in IIIQ2020, increasing 7.5 percent in the quarter, and decreasing 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2020, US GDP grew at SAAR of 4.5 percent, increasing 1.1 percent in the quarter and decreasing 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 6.3 percent in IQ2021, increasing 1.5 percent in the quarter and increasing 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2021, US GDP grew at SAAR of 6.7 percent, increasing 1.6 percent in the quarter and increasing 12.2 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP increased at SAAR of 2.3 percent in IIIQ2021, increasing 0.5 percent in the quarter and increasing 4.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2021, US GDP grew at SAAR of 7.0 percent, increasing 1.7 percent in the quarter and increasing 5.6 percent relative to a year earlier.
- United Kingdom. In IQ2012, UK GDP increased 0.7 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, GDP fell 0.1 percent relative to IQ2012 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, GDP increased 1.2 percent and increased 2.0 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier. In IVQ2012, GDP fell 0.2 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Fiscal consolidation in an environment of weakening economic growth is much more challenging. GDP increased 1.4 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 0.5 percent in IQ2013 relative to IVQ2012. In IIQ2013, GDP increased 0.7 percent and 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIIQ2013 and 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2013 and 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, GDP increased 0.9 percent and 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2014 and 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIIQ2014 and 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, GDP increased 0.6 percent and 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2015 and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2016 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2016 and grew 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2016 and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2017 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2017 and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, GDP increased 0.4 percent and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2017 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2018 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, GDP increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2018 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, GDP increased 0.6 percent and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2019 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, GDP increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2019 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2020, GDP decreased 2.6 percent and decreased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP decreased 19.4 percent in IIQ2020 and decreased 21.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2020, GDP increased 17.6 percent and decreased 7.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.5 percent in IVQ2020 and decreased 6.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2021, GDP contracted 1.3 percent and contracted 5.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 5.4 percent in IIQ2021 and increased 24.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2021, GDP increased 1.1 percent and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier.
- Italy. The GDP of Italy grew 2.6 percent in IIIQ2021 and grew 3.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy grew 2.7 percent in IIQ2021 and grew 17.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 0.3 percent in IQ2021 and contracted 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP contracted 1.6 percent in IVQ2020 and contracted 6.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 15.6 percent in IIIQ2020 and contracted 5.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy contracted 12.9 percent in IIQ2020 and contracted 18.1 percent relative to a year earlier in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021). Italy’s GDP contracted 5.7 percent in IQ2020 and decreased 5.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy decreased 0.4 percent in IVQ2019 and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2019 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2019, Italy’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IQ2019 and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2018, the GDP of Italy increased 0.3 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.1 percent in IIIQ2018 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2018, the GDP of Italy changed 0.0 percent and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IQ2018 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, the GDP of Italy increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2017 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2017, the GDP of Italy increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, the GDP of Italy increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2016, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2015, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP decreased 0.3 percent in IVQ2014 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.2 percent in IQ2014 and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IVQ2013 and fell 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2013 and fell 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.9 percent in IQ2013 and declined 2.9 percent relative to IQ2013. GDP had been growing during six consecutive quarters but at very low rates from IQ2010 to IIQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell in seven consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at increasingly higher rates of contraction from 0.5 percent in IIIQ2011 to 0.9 percent in IVQ2011, 1.1 percent in IQ2012, 0.7 percent in IIQ2012 and 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012. The pace of decline accelerated to minus 0.8 percent in IVQ2012 and minus 0.9 percent in IQ2013. GDP contracted cumulatively 5.3 percent in seven consecutive quarterly contractions from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at the annual equivalent rate of minus 3.1 percent. The year-on-year rate has fallen from 2.1 percent in IVQ2010 to minus 3.1 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.9 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.2 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.4 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.9 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.4 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.4 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.3 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IIIQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.3 percent in IVQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.8 percent in IIQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IIIQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.9 percent in IVQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.3 percent in IQ2018 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.9 percent in IIQ2018 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2018 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2018 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2019 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2019 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIIQ2019 relative to a year earlier and decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2019 relative to a year earlier. GDP contracted 5.9 percent in IQ2020 relative to a year earlier and contracted 18.1 percent in IIQ2020 relative to a year earlier in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021). GDP contracted 5.4 percent in IIIQ2020 relative to a year earlier and contracted 6.6 percent in IVQ2020 relative to a year earlier. GDP contracted 0.6 percent in IQ2021 relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 17.1 percent in IIQ2021 relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2021, GDP grew 3.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Istat updated the national accounts of Italy, using 2015 base, with the release of Mar 3, 2021 (https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/254320). Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/), the GDP of Italy (using the base of 2015) in IIIQ2021 of €425,375.0 million (https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/254320) is lower by 6.1 percent relative to €453,226.4 million in IQ2008 (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/). Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/), the GDP of Italy increased from €391,789.2 million in IQ1998 to €453,226.4 million in IQ2008 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.5 percent. The fiscal adjustment of Italy is significantly more difficult with the economy not growing especially on the prospects of increasing government revenue. The strategy is for reforms to improve productivity, facilitating future fiscal consolidation.
- France. France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2012 and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IIQ2012 and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2013 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2013 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2013 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2015, France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2015, the GDP of France increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France decreased 0.2 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, the GDP of France increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2017, the GDP of France increased 0.8 percent and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2017 and increased 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, the GDP of France increased 0.9 percent and increased 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IQ2018 and increased 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2018, the GDP of France increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2018 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2018, the GDP of France increased 0.7 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2019 and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2019, the GDP of France increased 0.6 percent and increased 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2019 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2019, the GDP of France decreased 0.3 percent and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 5.7 percent in IQ2020 and decreased 5.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2020, the GDP of France decreased 13.5 percent and decreased 18.6 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 18.5 percent in IIIQ2020 and decreased 3.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2020, the GDP of France contracted 1.1 percent and decreased 4.3 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2021 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2021, the GDP of France increased 1.3 percent and increased 18.8 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 3.0 percent in IIIQ2021 and increased 3.3 percent relative to
Table V-3, Percentage Changes of GDP Quarter on Prior Quarter and on Same Quarter Year Earlier, ∆%
QOQ: quarter relative to prior quarter; SAAR: seasonally adjusted annual rate
AE: annual equivalent
Source: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.bls.gov/bls/other.htm https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/related-sites.html
Brazil’s GDP grew 0.5 percent in IIIQ2021 (https://sidra.ibge.gov.br/tabela/5932#/n1/all/v/6564/p/202004,202101,202102,202103,202104/c11255/all/d/v6564%201/l/v,p,t+c11255/resultado) and grew 4.6 percent in IVQ2021 relative to a year earlier (https://sidra.ibge.gov.br/tabela/5932#/n1/all/v/6562/p/202004,202101,202102,202103,202104/c11255/all/d/v6562%201/l/v,p,t+c11255/resultado).
Japan’s GDP increased 1.3 percent in IVQ2021 at SAAR of 5.4 percent and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The National Bureau of Statistics of China released a preliminary estimate of growth of GDP of 4.0 percent in IVQ2021 relative to IVQ2020 and 8.1 percent in cumulative IQ2021 to IVQ2021 relative to a year earlier, as shown in Table V-3C. GDP grew 1.6 percent in IVQ2021 at the annual equivalent rate of 6.6 percent. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2021 and grew 4.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP contracted 0.7 percent in IVQ2021 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2021 and grew 5.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IVQ2021 and increased 6.4 percent relative to a year earlier. UK’s GDP increased 1.0 percent in IVQ2021 and grew 6.5 percent relative to a year earlier.
Table V-3C, Flash Estimates of Percentage Changes of GDP Quarter on Prior Quarter and on Same Quarter Year Earlier, ∆%
| IVQ2021/IIIQ2021 | IVQ2021/IVQ2020 | |
| Brazil | 0.5 | 4.6 |
| Japan | 1.3 SAAR: 5.4 | 0.7 |
| China | 1.6 (AE 6.6) | 4.0 |
| Euro Area | 0.3 | 4.6 |
| Germany | -0.7 | 1.4 |
| France | 0.7 | 5.4 |
| Italy | 0.6 | 6.4 |
| UK | 1.0 | 6.5 |
QOQ: Quarter relative to prior quarter; SAAR: seasonally adjusted annual rate; AE: Annual Equivalent
Source: Eurostat: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat Country Statistical Agencies http://www.bls.gov/bls/other.htm https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/related-sites.html https://www.ibge.gov.br/estatisticas/economicas/contas-nacionais/9300-contas-nacionais-trimestrais.html?=&t=resultados
Table V-4 provides two types of data: growth of exports and imports in the latest available months and in the past 12 months; and contributions of net trade (exports less imports) to growth of real GDP.
- Japan. Japan provides the most worrisome data (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/global-decline-of-values-of-financial.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/07/valuation-of-risk-financial-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/fluctuating-financial-asset-valuations.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/dollar-revaluation-squeezing-corporate.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/patience-on-interest-rate-increases.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/monetary-policy-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/valuation-risks-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/interest-rate-risks-world-inflation.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/global-financial-risk-world-inflation.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations_8763.html http://cmpass ocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/paring-quantitative-easing-policy-and_4699.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/thirty-one-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/12/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_24.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/11/contraction-of-united-states-real_25.html and for GDP http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what_13.html). In Jan 2022, Japan’s exports increased 9.6 percent in 12 months while imports increased 39.6 percent. The second part of Table V-4 shows that net trade added 0.7 percent in IQ2012, deducting 1.9 percent in IIQ2012. Net trade deducted 1.9 percent in IIIQ2012. Net traded deducted 0.3 percent in IVQ2012. Net trade added 1.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2013 but deducted 0.1 percentage points in IIQ2013, deducting 1.3 percentage points in IIIQ2013 and 2.1 percentage points in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 1.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2014. Net trade added 4.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2014 and deducted 0.3 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 1.8 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2014. Net trade contributed 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2015 and deducted 0.7-percentage points in IIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.5 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015 and added 1.4 percentage points in IQ2016. Net trade contributed 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade added 1.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2016 and contributed 1.0 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade contributed 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017 and deducted 0.7 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade contributed 1.8 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017 and deducted 0.3 percentage-point in IVQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018 and contributed 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018 and deducted 2.0 percentage points in IVQ2018. Net trade contributed 1.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2019 with export contraction deducting 1.4 percent and import contraction contributing 2.6 percent. Net trade deducted 0.8 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2019. Net trade deducted 1.6 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade contributed 1.8 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2020 with export contraction deducting 3.2 percentage points and import contraction adding 2.5 percentage points. Net trade deducted 10.1 percentage points in IIQ2020 with export contraction deducting 11.3 percentage points and imports contributing 1.2 percentage points. Net trade contributed 10.8 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2020 with export growth contributing 5.5 percentage points and import contraction contribution of 5.3 percentage points. Net trade contributed 3.7 percentage points to GDP in IVQ2020 with export growth contributing 7.0 percentage points and imports deducting 3.3 percentage points. Net trade deducted 0.5 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2021 with exports contributing 1.5 percent and imports deducting 2.0 percent. Net trade deducted 0.8 percentage points in IIQ2021 with exports contributing 1.7 percent and imports deducting 2.5 percent. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points in IIIQ2021 with exports deducting 0.6 percent and imports contributing 0.7 percent. Private consumption assumed the role of driver of Japan’s economic growth but should moderate as in most mature economies.
- China. The exports of China increased 16.3 percent in Jan-Feb 2022 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 15.5 percent.
- Germany. Germany’s exports decreased 2.8 percent in the month of Jan 2021 and increased 7.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2022. Germany’s imports decreased 4.2 percent in the month of Jan 2022 and increased 22.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2022. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to growth of GDP in IQ2012, contributed 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2012, contributed 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2012, deducted 0.5 percentage points in IVQ2012, deducted 0.3 percentage points in IQ2013 and deducted 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded deducted 0.0 percentage points from Germany’s GDP growth in IIIQ2013 and added 0.9 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2014 and added 0.7 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points in IVQ2015 and deducted 0.9 percentage points in IQ2016. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.9 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade added 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017. Net trade deducted 1.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2017. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018 and contributed 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.4 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2019. Net trade deducted 1.6 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2019. Net traded added 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 1.2 percentage points in IQ2020 and deducted 3.3 percentage points in IIQ2020. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points in IIIQ2020. Net trade contributed 1.2 percentage points in IVQ2020. Net trade contributed 0.9 percentage points in IQ2021. Net trade contributed 3.3 percentage points in IIQ2021. Net trade deducted 0.9 percentage points in IIIQ2021.
- United Kingdom. Net trade contributed 0.7 percentage points in IIQ2013. In IIIQ2013, net trade deducted 1.7 percentage points from UK growth. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to UK value added in IVQ2013. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to UK value added in IQ2014 and 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2014 and added 0.0 percentage points in IVQ2014. Net traded deducted 0.4 percentage points from growth in IQ2015. Net trade added 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.1-percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 1.8 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade added 1.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2016. Net trade added 0.33 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017 and contributed 0.01 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.11 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.28 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade added 0.42 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.48 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.45 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.29 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2018. Net trade deducted 2.85 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2019. Net trade contributed 2.86 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2019. Net trade contributed 1.37 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade contributed 2.26 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 2.61 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2020. Net trade contributed 3.22 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2020. Net trade deducted 4.04 percentage points from GDP in IIIQ2020. Net trade deducted 2.03 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2020. Net trade contributed 1.19 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2021. Net trade contributed 0.43 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2021. Net trade deducted 1.24 percentage points in IIIQ2021.
- France. France’s exports decreased 0.4 percent in Dec 2021 while imports increased 2.5 percent. France’s exports increased 14.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2021 and imports increased 29.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Net trade deduced 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2012. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points in IIQ2012. Net traded contributed 0.0 percentage points to France’s GDP in IIIQ2012 and 0.0 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points to France’s GDP growth in IQ2013 and added 0.1 percentage points in IIQ2013, deducting 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2013. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points to France’s GDP in IVQ2013 and deducted 0.1 percentage points in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IIQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.5 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015 and contributed 0.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.5 percentage points to GDP in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.4 percentage points from GDP in IIIQ2016 and contributed 0.0 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP in IQ2017 and added 1.0 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade added 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP in IVQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP in IQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ219. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points in IQ2020. Net trade deducted 1.8 percentage points in IIQ2020. Net trade contributed 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2020. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points in IVQ2020. Net trade deducted 0.4 percentage points in IQ2021. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIQ2021. Net trade added 0.7 percentage points in IIIQ2021.
- United States. US exports decreased 1.7 percent in Jan 2022 and goods exports increased 15.2 percent in Jan 2022 relative to a year earlier. Imports increased 1.2 percent in Jan 2022 and goods imports increased 21.1 percent in Jan-Dec 2021 relative to a year earlier. Net traded added 0.37 percentage points to GDP in IQ2012. Net trade added 0.31 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2012 and deducted 0.02 percentage points in IIIQ2012, adding 0.68 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade added 0.30 percentage points to US GDP growth in IQ2013 and deducted 0.49 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded subtracted 0.01 percentage points from US GDP growth in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 1.04 percentage points to US GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 1.36 percentage points from US GDP growth in IQ2014 and deducted 0.29 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade added 0.12 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2014. Net trade deducted 1.24 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 1.34 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.32 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.95 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.20 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.06 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.30 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade added 0.33 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade deducted 1.19 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2016. Net trade added 0.31 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.42 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2017. Net trade added 0.36 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.37 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade subtracted 0.16 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018. Net trade added 0.40 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.66 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018, deducting 0.51 percentage points in IVQ2018. Net trade added 0.39 percentage points in IQ2019, deducting 0.50 percentage points in IIQ2019. Net trade added 0.07 percentage points in IIIQ2019. Net trade added 1.43 percentage points in IVQ2019, deducting 0.05 percentage points in IQ2020. Net trade added 1.53 percentage points in IIQ2020, deducting 3.25 percentage points in IIIQ2020. Net trade deducted 1.65 percentage points in IVQ2020. Net trade deducted 1.56 percentage points in IQ2021. Net trade deducted 0.18 percentage points in IIQ2021. Net trade deducted 1.16 percentage points from GDP in IIIQ2021. Net trade deducted 0.07 percentage points to GDP in IVQ2021.
Industrial production increased 1.4 percent in Jan 2022 and decreased 0.1 percent in Dec 2021 after increasing 0.9 percent in Nov 2021, with all data seasonally adjusted, as shown in Table I-1. Manufacturing decreased 22.4 percent from the peak in Jun 2007 to the trough in Apr 2009 and increased 13.5 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Dec 2019. Manufacturing increased 10.9 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Dec 2020. Manufacturing in Dec 2020 is lower by 13.9 percent relative to the peak in Jun 2007. Manufacturing increased 15.0 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Dec 2021. Manufacturing in Dec 2021 is 10.7 percent below the peak in Jun 2007. Manufacturing increased 15.1 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Jan 2022. Manufacturing in Jan 2022 is 10.6 percent below the peak in Apr 2009. US economic growth has been at only 2.2 percent on average in the cyclical expansion in the 50 quarters from IIIQ2009 to IVQ2021 and in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021). Boskin (2010Sep) measures that the US economy grew at 6.2 percent in the first four quarters and 4.5 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the second quarter of 1975; and at 7.7 percent in the first four quarters and 5.8 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the first quarter of 1983 (Professor Michael J. Boskin, Summer of Discontent, Wall Street Journal, Sep 2, 201 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882304575465462926649950.html). There are new calculations using the revision of US GDP and personal income data since 1929 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) and the second estimate of GDP for IVQ2021 (https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2022-02/gdp4q21_2nd.pdf). The average of 7.7 percent in the first four quarters of major cyclical expansions is in contrast with the rate of growth in the first four quarters of the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010 of only 2.9 percent obtained by dividing GDP of $15,605.6 billion in IIQ2010 by GDP of $15,161.8 billion in IIQ2009 {[($15,605.6/$15,161.8) -1]100 = 2.9%], or accumulating the quarter on quarter growth rates (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2022/02/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-of-70-percent-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2022/01/fomc-states-with-inflation-well-above-2.html). The expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1986 was at the average annual growth rate of 5.7 percent, 5.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1986, 5.1 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1986, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1988, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1989, 4.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1989, 4.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1989, 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1989, 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1990, 4.4 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1990, 4.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1990, 4.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1990, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1992, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1994, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1994, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1994, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1994, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1995, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1995 and at 7.9 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2022/02/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-of-70-percent-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2022/01/fomc-states-with-inflation-well-above-2.html). The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dates a contraction of the US from IQ1990 (Jul) to IQ1991 (Mar) (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html). The expansion lasted until another contraction beginning in IQ2001 (Mar). US GDP contracted 1.4 percent from the pre-recession peak of $9404.5 billion of chained 2012 dollars in IIIQ1990 to the trough of $9275.3 billion in IQ1991 (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IVQ2021 and in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021) would have accumulated to 51.3 percent. GDP in IVQ2021 would be $23,849.2 billion (in constant dollars of 2012) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $4038.6 billion than actual $19,810.6 billion. There are more than four trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 23.2 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 13.3 percent of the effective labor force with the largest part originating in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2022/03/increase-in-feb-2022-of-nonfarm-payroll.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2022/02/increase-in-jan-2022-of-nonfarm-payroll.html). Unemployment is decreasing while employment is increasing in initial adjustment of the lockdown of economic activity in the global recession resulting from the COVID-19 event (https://www.bls.gov/covid19/effects-of-covid-19-pandemic-and-response-on-the-employment-situation-news-release.htm). US GDP in IVQ2021 is 16.9 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $15,767.1 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $19,810.6 billion in IVQ2021 or 25.6 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.6 percent. Professor John H. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. Cochrane (2016May02) measures GDP growth in the US at average 3.5 percent per year from 1950 to 2000 and only at 1.76 percent per year from 2000 to 2015 with only at 2.0 percent annual equivalent in the current expansion. Cochrane (2016May02) proposes drastic changes in regulation and legal obstacles to private economic activity. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 3.0 percent per year from Jan 1919 to Jan 2022. Growth at 3.0 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 106.8161 in Dec 2007 to 161.9673 in Jan 2022. The actual index NSA in Jan 2022 is 99.1061 which is 38.8 percent below trend. The underperformance of manufacturing in Mar-Nov 2020 originates partly in the earlier global recession augmented by the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021). Manufacturing grew at the average annual rate of 3.3 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2006. Growth at 3.3 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 106.8161 in Dec 2007 to 168.7391 in Jan 2022. The actual index NSA in Jan 2022 is 99.1061, which is 41.3 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 1.7 percent between Dec 1986 and Jan 2022. Using trend growth of 1.7 percent per year, the index would increase to 135.4378 in Jan 2022. The output of manufacturing at 99.1061 in Jan 2022 is 26.8 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Using the NAICS (North American Industry Classification System), manufacturing output fell from the high of 108.5167 in Jul 2007 to the low of 84.7321 in May 2009 or 21.9 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased from 84.7321 in Apr 2009 to 100.0330 in Jan 2022 or 18.1 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased at the annual equivalent rate of 3.5 percent from Dec 1986 to Dec 2006. Growth at 3.5 percent would increase the NAICS manufacturing output index from 104.6868 in Dec 2007 to 169.9423 in Jan 2022. The NAICS index at 100.0330 in Jan 2021 is 41.1 below trend. The NAICS manufacturing output index grew at 1.7 percent annual equivalent from Dec 1999 to Dec 2006. Growth at 1.7 percent would raise the NAICS manufacturing output index from 104.6868 in Dec 2007 to 132.7380 in Jan 2022. The NAICS index at 100.0330 in Jan 2022 is 24.6 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Table I-13 provides national income by industry without capital consumption adjustment (WCCA). “Private industries” or economic activities have share of 87.8 percent in IIIQ2021. Most of US national income is in the form of services. In Jan 2022, there were 147.525 million nonfarm jobs NSA in the US, according to estimates of the establishment survey of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm Table B-1). Total private jobs of 126.583 million NSA in Feb 2022 accounted for 85.0 percent of total nonfarm jobs of 148.967 million, of which 12.568 million, or 9.9 percent of total private jobs and 8.4 percent of total nonfarm jobs, were in manufacturing. Private service-providing jobs were 106.131 million NSA in Feb 2022, or 71.2 percent of total nonfarm jobs and 83.8 percent of total private-sector jobs. Manufacturing has share of 9.7 percent in US national income in IIIQ2021 and durable goods 5.5 percent, as shown in Table I-13. Most income in the US originates in services. Subsidies and similar measures designed to increase manufacturing jobs will not increase economic growth and employment and may actually reduce growth by diverting resources away from currently employment-creating activities because of the drain of taxation.
Table V-4, Growth of Trade and Contributions of Net Trade to GDP Growth, ∆% and % Points
| Exports | Exports 12 M ∆% | Imports | Imports 12 M ∆% | |
| USA | -1.7 Jan SA | 15.2 Jan NSA | 1.2 Jan SA | 21.1 Jan NSA |
| Japan | Jan 2022 9.6 Dec 2021 17.5 Nov 2021 20.5 Oct 2021 9.4 Sep 2021 13.0 Aug 2021 26.2 Jul 2021 37.0 Jun 2021 48.6 May 2021 49.6 Apr 2021 38.0 Mar 2021 16.1 Feb 2021 -4.5 Jan 2021 6.4 Dec 2020 2.0 Nov 2020 -4.2 Oct 2020 -0.2 Sep 2020 -4.9 Aug 2020 -14.8 Jul 2020 -19.2 Jun 2020 -26.2 May 2020 -28.3 Apr 2020 -21.9 Mar 2020 -11.7 Feb 2020 -1.0 Jan 2020 -2.6 Dec 2019 -6.3 Nov 2019 -7.9 Oct 2019 -9.2 Sep 2019 -5.2 Aug 2019 -8.2 Jul 2019 -1.6 Jun 2019 -6.7 May 2019 -7.8 Apr 2019 -2.4 Mar 2019 -2.4 Feb 2019 -1.2 Jan 2019 -8.4 Dec 2018 -3.8 Nov 2018 0.1 Oct 2018 8.2 Sep 2018 -1.2 Aug 2018 6.6 Jul 2018 3.9 Jun 2018 6.7 May 2018 8.1 Apr 2018 7.8 Mar 2018 2.1 Feb 2018 1.8 Jan 2018 12.2 Dec 2017 9.3 Nov 2017 16.2 Oct 2017 14.0 Sep 2017 14.1 Aug 2017 18.1 Jul 2017 13.4 Jun 2017 9.7 May 2017 14.9 Apr 2017 7.5 Mar 2017 12.0 Feb 2017 11.3 Jan 2017 1.3 Dec 2016 5.4 Nov 2016 -0.4 Oct 2016 -10.3 Sep 2016 -6.9 Aug 2016 9.6 Jul 2016 -14.0 Jun 2016 -7.8 May 2016 -11.3 Apr 2016 -10.1 Mar 2016 -6.8 Feb 2016 -4.0 Jan 2016 -12.9 Dec 2015 -8.0 Nov 2015 -3.3 Oct 2015 -2.1 Sep 2015 0.6 Aug 3.1 Jul 2015 7.6 Jun 2015 9.5 May 2015 2.4 Apr 8.0 Mar 8.5 Feb 2.4 Jan 17.0 Dec 12.9 Nov 4.9 Oct 9.6 Sep 6.9 Aug -1.3 Jul 3.9 Jun -2.0 May 2014 -2.7 Apr 2014 5.1 Mar 2014 1.8 Feb 2014 9.5 Jan 2014 9.5 Dec 2013 15.3 Nov 2013 18.4 Oct 2013 18.6 Sep 2013 11.5 Aug 2013 14.7 Jul 2013 12.2 Jun 2013 7.4 May 2013 10.1 Apr 2013 3.8 Mar 2013 1.1 Feb 2013 -2.9 Jan 2013 6.4 Dec -5.8 Nov -4.1 Oct -6.5 Sep -10.3 Aug -5.8 Jul -8.1 | Jan 2022 39.6 Dec 2021 41.1 Nov 2021 43.8 Oct 2021 26.7 Sep 2021 38.6 Aug 2021 44.7 Jul 2021 28.5 Jun 2021 32.7 May 2021 27.9 Apr 2021 12.8 Mar 2021 5.8 Feb 2021 11.8 Jan 2021 -9.5 Dec 2020 -11.6 Nov 2020 -11.1 Oct 2020 -13.3 Sep 2020 -17.2 Aug 2020 -20.8 Jul 2020 -22.3 Jun 2020 -14.4 May 2020 -26.2 Apr 2020 -7.2 Mar 2020 -5.0 Feb 2020 -14.0 Jan 2020 -3.6 Dec 2019 -4.9 Nov 2019 -15.7 Oct 2019 -14.8 Sep 2019 -1.5 Aug 2019 -12.0 Jul 2019 -1.2 Jun 2019 -5.2 May 2019 -1.5 Apr 2019 6.4 Mar 2019 1.1 Feb 2019 -6.7 Jan 2019 -0.6 Dec 2018 1.9 Nov 2018 12.5 Oct 2018 19.9 Sep 2018 7.0 Aug 2018 15.4 Jul 2018 14.6 Jun 2018 2.5 May 2018 14.0 Apr 2018 5.9 Mar 2018 -0.6 Feb 2018 16.6 Jan 2018 7.9 Dec 2017 14.9 Nov 2017 17.2 Oct 2017 18.9 Sep 2017 12.0 Aug 2017 15.2 Jul 2017 16.3 Jun 2017 15.5 May 2017 17.8 Apr 2017 15.1 Mar 2017 15.8 Feb 2017 1.2 Jan 2017 8.5 Dec 2016 -2.6 Nov 2016 -8.8 Oct 2016 -16.5 Sep 2016 -16.3 Aug 2016 -17.3 Jul 2016 -24.7 Jun 2016 -18.8 May 2016 -13.8 Apr 2016 -23.3 Mar 2016 -14.9 Feb 2016 -14.2 Jan 2016 -18.0 Dec 2015 -18.0 Nov 2015 -10.2 Oct 2015 -13.4 Sep 2015 -11.1 Aug -3.1 Jul 2015 -3.2 Jun 2015 -2.9 May 2015 -8.7 Apr -4.2 Mar -14.5 Feb -3.6 Jan -9.0 Dec 1.9 Nov -1.7 Oct 2.7 Sep 6.2 Aug -1.5 Jul 2.3 Jun 8.4 May 2014 -3.6 Apr 2013 3.4 Mar 2014 18.1 Feb 2014 9.0 Jan 2014 25.0 Dec 2013 24.7 Nov 2013 21.1 Oct 2013 26.1 Sep 2013 16.5 Aug 2013 16.0 Jul 2013 19.6 Jun 2013 11.8 May 2013 10.0 Apr 2013 9.4 Mar 2013 5.5 Feb 2013 7.3 Jan 2013 7.3 Dec 1.9 Nov 0.8 Oct -1.6 Sep 4.1 Aug -5.4 Jul 2.1 | ||
| China | Jan-Dec 3.6 Jan-Dec 0.5 Jan-Dec 9.9 Jan-Dec 2017 7.9 Jan-Dec 2016 -7.7 Jan-Dec 2015 -2.8 | 2022 Jan-Feb 16.3 2021 Dec 20.9 Nov 22.0 Oct 27.1 Sep 28.1 Aug 25.6 Jul 19.3 Jun 33.2 May 27.9 Apr 32.3 Mar 30.6 Jan-Feb 60.6 2020 Dec 18.1 Nov 21.1 Oct 11.4 Sep 9.9 Aug 9.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 0.5 May -3.3 Apr 8.2 Mar -2.9 Jan-Feb -17.2 2019 Dec 7.6 Nov -1.1 Oct -0.9 Sep -3.2 Aug -1.0 Jul 3.3 Jun -1.3 May 1.1 Apr -2.7 Mar 14.2 Feb -20.7 Jan 9.3 2018 Dec -4.4 Nov 5.4 Oct 15.6 Sep 14.5 Aug 9.8 Jul 12.2 Jun 11.3 May 12.6 Apr 12.9 Mar -2.7 Feb 44.5 Jan 11.1 2017 Dec 10.9 Nov 12.3 Oct 6.9 Sep 8.1 Aug 5.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 11.3 May 8.7 Apr 8.0 Mar 16.4 Feb -1.3 Jan 7.9 2016 Dec 3.1 Nov 0.1 Oct -7.3 Sep -10.0 Aug -2.8 Jul -4.4 Jun -4.8 May -4.1 Apr -1.8 Mar 11.5 Feb -25.4 Jan -11.2 2015 -1.4 Dec -6.8 Nov -6.9 Oct -3.7 Sep -5.5 Aug -8.3 Jul 2.8 Jun -2.5 May -6.4 Apr -15.0 Mar 48.3 Feb -3.3 Jan 2014 9.7 Dec 4.7 Nov 11.6 Oct 15.3 Sep 9.4 Aug 14.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 7.0 May 0.9 Apr -6.6 Mar -18.1 Feb 10.6 Jan 2013 4.3 Dec 12.7 Nov 5.6 Oct -0.3 Sep 7.2 Aug 5.1 Jul -3.1 Jun 1.0 May 14.7 Apr 10.0 Mar 21.8 Feb 25.0 Jan | Jan-Dec -1.1 Jan-Dec -2.8 Jan-Dec 15.8 Jan-Dec 2017 15.9 Jan-Dec 2016 -5.5 Jan-Dec 2015 -14.1 | 2022 Jan-Feb 15.5 2021 Dec 19.5 Nov 31.7 Oct 20.6 Sep 17.6 Aug 33.1 Jul 28.1 Jun 36.7 May 51.1 Apr 43.1 Mar 38.1 Jan-Feb 22.2 2020 Dec 6.5 Nov 4.5 Oct 4.7 Sep 13.2 Aug -2.1 Jul 1.4 Jun 2.7 May -16.7 Apr -10.2 Mar -1.1 Jan-Feb -4.0 2019 Dec 16.3 Nov 0.3 Oct -6.4 Sep -8.5 Aug -5.6 Jul -5.3 Jun -7.3 May -8.5 Apr 4.0 Mar -7.6 Feb -5.2 Jan -1.5 2018 Dec -7.6 Nov 3.0 Oct 21.4 Sep 14.3 Aug 20.0 Jul 27.3 Jun 14.1 May 26.0 Apr 21.5 Mar 14.4 Feb 6.3 Jan 36.9 2017 Dec 4.5 Nov 17.7 Oct 17.2 Sep 18.7 Aug 13.3 Jul 11.0 Jun 17.2 May 14.8 Apr 11.9 Mar 20.3 Feb 38.1 Jan 16.7 2016 Dec -7.7 Nov 6.7 Oct -1.4 Sep -1.9 Aug 1.5 Jul -12.5 Jun -2.8 May -0.4 Apr -10.6 Mar -7.6 Feb -13.8 Jan -18.8 2015 -7.6 Dec -8.7 Nov -18.8 Oct -20.4 Sep -13.8 Aug -8.1 Jul -6.1 Jun -17.6 May -12.7 Mar -20.5 Feb -19.9 Jan 2014 -2.4 Dec -6.7 Nov 4.6 Oct 7.0 Sep -2.4 Aug -1.6 Jul 5.5 Jun -1.6 May -0.8 Apr -11.3 Mar 10.1 Feb 10.0 Jan 2013 8.3 Dec 5.3 Nov 7.6 Oct 7.4 Sep 7.0 Aug 10.9 Jul -0.7 Jun -0.3 May 16.8 Apr 14.1 Mar -15.2 Feb 28.8 Jan |
| Euro Area | 14.1 12-M Dec 2021 | 36.7 Jan-Dec 2021 | 14.1 12-M Dec 2021 | 21.4 Jan-Dec 2021 |
| Germany | -2.8 Jan CSA | 7.5 Jan | -4.2 Jan CSA | 22.1 Jan |
| France Dec | -0.4 | 14.1 | 2.5 | 29.5 |
| Italy Dec | -1.1 | 16.2 | 7.5 | 37.2 |
| UK Dec | 1.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 7.5 |
| Net Trade % Points GDP Growth | Points | |||
| USA | IVQ2021 -0.07 IIIQ2021 -1.26 IIQ2021 -0.18 IQ2021 -1.56 IVQ2020 -1.65 IIIQ2020 -3.25 IIQ2020 1.53 IQ2020 -0.05 IVQ2019 1.43 IIIQ2019 0.07 IIQ2019 -0.50 IQ2019 0.39 IVQ 2018 -0.51 IIIQ2018 -1.66 IIQ2018 0.40 IQ2018 -0.16 IVQ2017 -0.37 IIIQ2017 0.36 IIQ2017 -0.42 IQ2017 0.31 IVQ2016 -1.19 IIIQ2016 0.33 IIQ2016 0.30 IQ2016 -0.06 IVQ2015 -0.20 IIIQ2015 -0.95 IIQ2015 -0.32 IQ2015 -1.34 IVQ2014 -1.24 IIIQ2014 0.12 IIQ2014 -0.29 IQ2014 -1.36 IVQ2013 1.04 IIIQ2013 -0.01 IIQ2013 -0.49 IQ2013 0.30 IVQ2012 +0.68 IIIQ2012 -0.02 IIQ2012 0.31 IQ2012 0.37 | |||
| Japan | 0.7 IQ2012 -1.9 IIQ2012 -1.9 IIIQ2012 -0.3 IVQ2012 1.4 IQ2013 -0.1 IIQ2013 -1.3 IIIQ2013 -2.1 IVQ2013 -1.0 IQ2014 4.2 IIQ2014 -0.3 IIIQ2014 1.8 IVQ2014 0.4 IQ2015 -0.7 IIQ2015 -0.5 IIIQ2015 -0.2 IVQ2015 1.4 IQ2016 0.4 IIQ2016 1.0 IIIQ2016 1.0 IVQ2016 0.7 IQ2017 -0.7 IIQ2017 1.8 IIIQ2017 -0.3 IVQ2017 0.4 IQ2018 0.3 IIQ2018 -1.0 IIIQ2018 -2.0 IVQ2018 1.2 IQ2019 -0.8 IIQ2019 -1.6 IIIQ2019 1.8 IVQ2019 -0.7 IQ2020 -10.1 IIQ2020 10.8 IIIQ2020 3.7 IVQQ2020 -0.5 IQ2021 -0.8 IIQ2021 0.1 IIIQ2021 | |||
| Germany | IQ2012 0.8 IIQ2012 0.3 IIIQ2012 0.4 IVQ2012 -0.5 IQ2013 -0.3 IIQ2013 -0.3 IIIQ2013 0.0 IVQ2013 0.9 IQ2014 -0.1 IIQ2014 -0.3 IIIQ2014 0.7 IVQ2014 0.1 IQ2015 -0.4 IIQ2015 0.6 IIIQ2015 -0.4 IVQ2015 -0.6 IQ2016 -0.9 IIQ2016 0.0 IIIQ2016 -0.6 IVQ2016 -0.9 IQ2017 1.1 IIQ2017 -1.0 IIIQ2017 0.2 IVQ2017 0.6 IQ2018 0.2 IIQ2018 0.6 IIIQ2018 -1.3 IVQ2018 -1.4 IQ2019 -1.1 IIQ2019 -1.6 IIIQ2019 0.3 IVQ2019 -0.3 IQ2020 -1.2 IIQ2020 -3.3 IIIQ2020 -0.1 IVQ2020 1.2 IQ2021 0.9 IIQ2021 3.3 IIIQ2021 -0.9 | |||
| France | -0.1 IQ2012 0.1 IIQ2012 0.0 IIIQ2012 0.0 IVQ2012 0.0 IQ2013 0.1 IIQ2013 -0.4 IIIQ2013 0.0 IVQ2013 -0.1 IQ2014 -0.3 IIQ2014 -0.2 IIIQ2014 0.1 IVQ2014 -0.2 IQ2015 0.4 IIQ2015 -0.5 IIIQ2015 -0.6 IVQ2015 0.0 IQ2016 0.5 IIQ2016 -0.4 IIIQ2016 0.0 IVQ2016 -0.7 IQ2017 1.0 IIQ2017 -0.2 IIIQ2017 0.3 IVQ2017 0.0 IQ2018 -0.1 IIQ2018 0.4 IIIQ2018 0.1 IVQ2018 -0.2 IQ2019 -0.2 IIQ2019 -0.2 IIIQ2019 -0.1 IVQ2019 -0.1 IQ2020 -1.8 IIQ2020 0.6 IIIQ2020 0.8 IVQ2020 -0.4 IQ2021 -0.2 IIQ2021 0.7 IIIQ2021 | |||
| UK | 0.7 IIQ2013 -1.7 IIIQ2013 0.1 IVQ2013 0.8 IQ2014 0.3 IIQ2014 -0.7 IIIQ2014 0.0 IVQ2014 -0.4 IQ2015 1.1 IIQ2015 -0.4 IIIQ2015 -0.2 IVQ2015 -0.1 IQ2016 0.1 IIQ2016 -1.8 IIIQ2016 1.7 IVQ2016 0.33 IQ2017 0.01 IIQ2017 | |||
| 0.11 | ||||
| IIIQ2017 -0.28 IVQ2017 0.42 IQ2018 -0.48 IIQ2018 0.45 IIIQ2018 -1.29 IVQ2018 -2.85 IQ2019 2.86 IIQ2019 1.37 IIIQ2019 2.26 IVQ2019 -2.61 IQ2020 3.22 IIQ2020 -4.04 IIIQ2020 -2.03 IVQ2020 1.19 IQ2021 0.43 IIQ2021 -1.24 IIIQ2021 |
Sources: Country Statistical Agencies
https://www.bls.gov/bls/other.htm https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/related-sites.html
United States total public debt outstanding is $30.2 trillion and debt held by the public $23.8 trillion (https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/debt-to-the-penny). The Net International Investment Position of the United States, or foreign debt, is $16.1 trillion (https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2021-12/intinv321.pdf https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2022/01/increase-in-dec-2021-of-nonfarm-payroll.html). The United States current account deficit is 3.7 percent of GDP in IIIQ2021 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2022/01/increase-in-dec-2021-of-nonfarm-payroll.html). The Treasury deficit of the United States reached $2.8 trillion in fiscal year 2021 (https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/). Total assets of Federal Reserve Banks reached $8.9 trillion on Mar 9, 2022 and securities held outright reached $8.4 trillion (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/h41.htm#h41tab1). US GDP nominal NSA reached $24.0 trillion in IVQ2021 (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). Total Treasury interest-bearing, marketable debt held by private investors increased from $3635 billion in 2007 to $16,439 billion in Sep 2021 (Fiscal Year 2021) or increase by 352.2 percent (https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/treasury-bulletin/). Table VI-7C provides additional information required for understanding the deficit/debt situation of the United States. The table is divided into four parts: Treasury budget in the 2022 fiscal year beginning on Oct 1, 2021 and ending on Sep 30, 2022; federal fiscal data for the years from 2009 to 2019; federal fiscal data for the years from 2005 to 2008; and Treasury debt held by the public from 2005 to 2019. Receipts increased 25.8 percent in the cumulative fiscal year 2022 ending in Feb 2022 relative to the cumulative in fiscal year 2021. Individual income taxes increased 38.3 percent relative to the same fiscal period a year earlier. Outlays decreased 8.1 percent relative to a year earlier. There are also receipts, outlays, deficit and debt for fiscal years 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019. In fiscal year 2019, the deficit reached $984.4 billion or 4.6 percent of GDP. Outlays of 4,446.6 billion were 21.0 percent of GDP and receipts of $3,462.2 billion were 16.3 percent of GDP. It is quite difficult for the US to raise receipts above 18 percent of GDP. Total revenues of the US from 2009 to 2012 accumulate to $9021.2 billion, or $9.0 trillion, while expenditures or outlays accumulate to $14,104.5 billion, or $14.1 trillion, with the deficit accumulating to $5083.3 billion, or $5.1 trillion. Revenues decreased 6.5 percent from $9652.5 billion in the four years from 2005 to 2008 to $9021.2 billion in the years from 2009 to 2012. Decreasing revenues were caused by the global recession from IVQ2007 (Dec) to IIQ2009 (Jun) and by growth of only 2.2 percent on average in the cyclical expansion from IIIQ2009 to IVQ2021. In contrast, the expansion from IQ1983 to IIQ1995 was at the average annual growth rate of 3.6 percent and at 7.9 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2022/02/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-of-70-percent-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2022/01/fomc-states-with-inflation-well-above-2.html). Because of mediocre GDP growth, there are 23.2 million unemployed or underemployed in the United States for an effective unemployment/underemployment rate of 13.3 percent (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2022/03/increase-in-feb-2022-of-nonfarm-payroll.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2022/02/increase-in-jan-2022-of-nonfarm-payroll.html). Weakness of growth and employment creation is analyzed in II Collapse of United States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation (Section II and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/07/total-nonfarm-hires-move-from-4986.html). In contrast with the decline of revenue, outlays or expenditures increased 30.1 percent from $10,838.2 billion, or $10.8 trillion, in the four years from 2005 to 2008, to $14,104.5 billion, or $14.1 trillion, in the four years from 2009 to 2012. Increase in expenditures by 30.1 percent while revenue declined by 6.5 percent caused the increase in the federal deficit from $1185.8 billion in 2005-2008 to $5083.3 billion in 2009-2012. Federal revenue was 14.8 percent of GDP on average in the years from 2009 to 2012, which is well below 17.3 percent of GDP on average from 1962 to 2019. Federal outlays were 23.3 percent of GDP on average from 2009 to 2012, which is well above 20.1 percent of GDP on average from 1962 to 2019. The lower part of Table VI-7C shows that debt held by the public swelled from $5803 billion in 2008 to $13,117 billion in 2015, by $7314 billion or 126.0 percent. Debt held by the public as percent of GDP or economic activity jumped from 39.4 percent in 2008 to 79.2 percent in 2019, which is well above the average of 41.7 percent from 1962 to 2019. The United States faces tough adjustment because growth is unlikely to recover, creating limits on what can be obtained by increasing revenues, while continuing stress of social programs restricts what can be obtained by reducing expenditures. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) provides a preliminary estimate of the impact of Public Law 116-136 of Mar 27, 2020, CARES Act or Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act (https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-04/hr748.pdf). This preliminary estimate finds that the CARES Act “will increase federal deficits by about $1.8 trillion over the 2020-2030 period (https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-04/hr748.pdf).
Table VI-7C, US, Treasury Budget in Fiscal Year to Date Million Dollars
| Feb 2022 | Fiscal Year 2022 | Fiscal Year 2021 | ∆% |
| Receipts | 1,806,838 | 1,436,334 | 25.8 |
| Outlays | 2,282,422 | 2,482,987 | -8.1 |
| Deficit | -475,584 | -1,046,654 | |
| Individual Income Tax | 973,913 | 704,399 | 38.3 |
| Corporation Income Tax | 117,072 | 89,123 | 31.4 |
| Social Insurance | 415,220 | 390,182 | 6.4 |
| Receipts | Outlays | Deficit (-), Surplus (+) | |
| $ Billions | |||
| Fiscal Year 2019 | 3,462.2 | 4,446.6 | -984.4 |
| % GDP | 16.3 | 21.0 | -4.6 |
| Fiscal Year 2018 | 3,329.9 | 4,109.0 | -779.1 |
| % GDP | 16.4 | 20.2 | -3.8 |
| Fiscal Year 2017 | 3,316.2 | 3,981.6 | -665.4 |
| % GDP | 17.2 | 20.6 | -3.5 |
| Fiscal Year 2016 | 3,268.0 | 3,852.6 | -584.7 |
| % GDP | 17.6 | 20.8 | -3.2 |
| Fiscal Year 2015 | 3,249.9 | 3,691.8 | -442.0 |
| % GDP | 18.0 | 20.4 | -2.4 |
| Fiscal Year 2014 | 3,021.5 | 3,506.3 | -484.8 |
| % GDP | 17.4 | 20.2 | -2.8 |
| Fiscal Year 2013 | 2,775.1 | 3,454.9 | -679.8 |
| % GDP | 16.7 | 20.8 | -4.1 |
| Fiscal Year 2012 | 2,450.0 | 3,526.6 | -1,076.6 |
| % GDP | 15.3 | 22.0 | -6.7 |
| Fiscal Year 2011 | 2,303.5 | 3,603.1 | -1,299.6 |
| % GDP | 15.0 | 23.4 | -8.4 |
| Fiscal Year 2010 | 2,162.7 | 3,457.1 | -1,294.4 |
| % GDP | 14.6 | 23.3 | -8.7 |
| Fiscal Year 2009 | 2,105.0 | 3,517.7 | -1,412.7 |
| % GDP | 14.6 | 24.4 | -9.8 |
| Total 2009-2012 | 9,021.2 | 14,104.5 | -5,083.3 |
| Average % GDP 2009-2012 | 14.8 | 23.3 | -8.4 |
| Fiscal Year 2008 | 2,524.0 | 2,982.5 | -458.6 |
| % GDP | 17.1 | 20.2 | -3.1 |
| Fiscal Year 2007 | 2,568.0 | 2,728.7 | -160.7 |
| % GDP | 18.0 | 19.1 | -1.1 |
| Fiscal Year 2006 | 2,406.9 | 2,655.1 | -248.2 |
| % GDP | 17.6 | 19.5 | -1.8 |
| Fiscal Year 2005 | 2,153.6 | 2,472.0 | -318.3 |
| % GDP | 16.8 | 19.3 | -2.5 |
| Total 2005-2008 | 9,652.5 | 10,838.2 | -1,185.8 |
| Average % GDP 2005-2008 | 17.4 | 19.5 | -2.1 |
| Debt Held by the Public | Billions of Dollars | Percent of GDP | |
| 2005 | 4,592 | 35.8 | |
| 2006 | 4,829 | 35.4 | |
| 2007 | 5,035 | 35.2 | |
| 2008 | 5,803 | 39.4 | |
| 2009 | 7,545 | 52.3 | |
| 2010 | 9,019 | 60.8 | |
| 2011 | 10,128 | 65.8 | |
| 2012 | 11,281 | 70.3 | |
| 2013 | 11,983 | 72.2 | |
| 2014 | 12,780 | 73.7 | |
| 2015 | 13,117 | 72.5 | |
| 2016 | 14,168 | 76.4 | |
| 2017 | 14,666 | 76.0 | |
| 2018 | 15,750 | 77.4 | |
| 2019 | 16,803 | 79.2 |
Source: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/
https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/sm0184.aspx https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm806 CBO, The budget and economic outlook: 2018 to 2028. Washington, DC, Apr 9 https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53651
CBO, The budget and economic outlook: 2017-2027. Washington, DC, Jan 24, 2017 https://www.cbo.gov/publication/52370 CBO, An update to the budget and economic outlook: 2016 to 2026. Washington, DC, Aug 23, 2016.
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget-economic-data#6
CBO (2012NovMBR). CBO (2011AugBEO); Office of Management and Budget 2011. Historical Tables. Budget of the US Government Fiscal Year 2011. Washington, DC: OMB; CBO. 2011JanBEO. Budget and Economic Outlook. Washington, DC, Jan. CBO. 2012AugBEO. Budget and Economic Outlook. Washington, DC, Aug 22. CBO. 2012Jan31. Historical budget data. Washington, DC, Jan 31. CBO. 2012NovCDR. Choices for deficit reduction. Washington, DC. Nov. CBO. 2013HBDFeb5. Historical budget data—February 2013 baseline projections. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Feb 5. CBO. 2013HBDFeb5. Historical budget data—February 2013 baseline projections. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Feb 5. CBO (2013Aug12). 2013AugHBD. Historical budget data—August 2013. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Aug. CBO, Historical Budget Data—February 2014, Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Feb. CBO, Historical budget data—April 2014 release. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Apr. Congressional Budget Office, August 2014 baseline: an update to the budget and economic outlook: 2014 to 2024. Washington, DC, CBO, Aug 27, 2014. CBO, Monthly budget review: summary of fiscal year 2014. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Nov 10, 2014. CBO, The budget and economic outlook: 2015 to 2025. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Jan 26, 2015.
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget-economic-data#6
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget_economic_data#3 https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget_economic_data#2
Table VI-7B provides the maturity distribution and average length in months of marketable interest-bearing debt held by private investors from 2007 to 2021. Total debt held by investors increased from $3635 billion in 2007 to $16,439 billion in Sep 2021 (Fiscal Year 2021) or increase by 352.2 percent. There are two concerns with the maturity distribution of US debt. (1) Growth of debt is moving total debt to the point of saturation in investors’ portfolio. In a new environment of risk appetite and nonzero fed funds rates with economic growth at historical trend of around 3 percent, yields on risk financial assets are likely to increase. Placement of new debt may require increasing interest rates in an environment of continuing placement of debt by the US Treasury without strong fiscal constraints. (2) Refinancing of maturing debt is likely to occur in an environment of higher interest rates, exerting pressure on future fiscal budgets. In Dec 2021 (fiscal year 2022), $5305 billion or 31.3 percent of outstanding debt held by investors matures in less than a year and $6446 billion or 38.1 percent of total debt matures in one to five years. Debt maturing in five years or less adds to $11,751 billion or 69.4 percent of total outstanding debt held by investors of $16,932 billion. This historical episode may be remembered as one in which the US managed its government debt with short-dated instruments during record low long-dated yields and on the verge of fiscal pressures on all interest rates. This strategy maximizes over time interest payments on government debt by taxpayers that is precisely the opposite of the objective of sound debt management and taxpayer welfare.
Table VI-7B, Maturity Distribution and Average Length in Months of Marketable Interest-Bearing Public Debt Held by Private Investors, Billions of Dollars
| End of Fiscal Year or Month | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 |
| Total* | 3635 | 4745 | 6229 | 7676 | 7951 | 9040 |
| <1 Year | 1176 | 2042 | 2605 | 2480 | 2504 | 2897 |
| 1-5 Years | 1310 | 1468 | 2075 | 2956 | 3085 | 3852 |
| 5-10 Years | 678 | 719 | 995 | 1529 | 1544 | 1488 |
| 10-20 Years | 292 | 352 | 351 | 341 | 309 | 271 |
| >20 Years | 178 | 163 | 204 | 371 | 510 | 533 |
| Average | 58 | 49 | 49 | 57 | 60 | 55 |
| End of Fiscal Year or Month | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
| Total* | 9518 | 9829 | 10379 | 11184 | 11643 | |
| <1 Year | 2940 | 2932 | 2923 | 3321 | 3263 | |
| 1-5 Years | 4135 | 4217 | 4356 | 4478 | 4746 | |
| 5-10 Years | 1648 | 1814 | 2084 | 2219 | 2321 | |
| 10-20 Years | 231 | 223 | 184 | 168 | 152 | |
| >20 Years | 565 | 644 | 832 | 998 | 1161 | |
| Average | 55 | 56 | 61 | 63 | 66 | |
| End of Fiscal Year or Month | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | Dec 2021 | |
| Total* | 12881 | 14225 | 15,992 | 16,439 | 16,932 | |
| <1 Year | 3794 | 4147 | 6374 | 5238 | 5305 | |
| 1-5 Years | 5181 | 5822 | 5568 | 6270 | 6446 | |
| 5-10 Years | 2445 | 2625 | 2332 | 2855 | 3004 | |
| 10-20 Years | 121 | 105 | 242 | 537 | 601 | |
| >20 Years | 1339 | 1526 | 1406 | 1539 | 1576 | |
| Average | 65 | 65 | 56 | 66 | 66 |
*Amount Outstanding Privately Held
Source: United States Treasury. 2022 Mar. Treasury Bulletin. Washington, Mar 2022
https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/treasury-bulletin/
VC China. China estimates an index of nonmanufacturing purchasing managers based on a sample of 1200 nonmanufacturing enterprises across the country (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Table CIPMNM provides this index and components. The total index increased from 55.7 in Jan 2011 to 58.0 in Mar 2012, decreasing to 53.9 in Aug 2013. The index decreased from 56.0 in Nov 2013 to 54.6 in Dec 2013, easing to 53.4 in Jan 2014. The index moved to 51.6 in Feb 2022. The index of new orders increased from 52.2 in Jan 2012 to 54.3 in Dec 2012 but fell to 50.1 in May 2013, barely above the neutral frontier of 50.0. The index of new orders stabilized at 51.0 in Nov-Dec 2013, easing to 50.9 in Jan 2014. The index of new orders moved to 47.6 in Feb 2022.
Table CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted
| Total Index | New Orders | Interm. | Subs Prices | Exp | |
| Feb 2022 | 51.6 | 47.6 | 53.9 | 49.8 | 60.5 |
| Jan | 51.1 | 47.8 | 52.1 | 51.0 | 57.9 |
| Dec 2021 | 52.7 | 48.4 | 49.3 | 48.1 | 57.3 |
| Nov | 52.3 | 48.9 | 50.8 | 50.1 | 58.2 |
| Oct | 52.4 | 49.0 | 57.8 | 52.7 | 58.8 |
| Sep | 53.2 | 49.0 | 53.5 | 50.5 | 59.1 |
| Aug | 47.5 | 42.2 | 51.3 | 49.3 | 57.4 |
| Jul | 53.3 | 49.7 | 53.5 | 51.3 | 60.7 |
| Jun | 53.5 | 49.6 | 53.4 | 51.4 | 60.8 |
| May | 55.2 | 52.2 | 57.7 | 52.8 | 62.9 |
| Apr | 54.9 | 51.5 | 54.9 | 51.2 | 63.0 |
| Mar | 56.3 | 55.9 | 56.2 | 52.2 | 63.7 |
| Feb | 51.4 | 48.9 | 54.7 | 50.1 | 64.0 |
| Jan | 52.4 | 48.7 | 54.5 | 51.4 | 55.1 |
| Dec 2020 | 55.7 | 51.9 | 54.3 | 52.3 | 60.6 |
| Nov | 56.4 | 52.8 | 52.7 | 51.0 | 61.2 |
| Oct | 56.2 | 53.0 | 50.9 | 49.4 | 62.9 |
| Sep | 55.9 | 54.0 | 50.6 | 48.9 | 63.0 |
| Aug | 55.2 | 52.3 | 51.9 | 50.1 | 62.1 |
| Jul | 54.2 | 51.5 | 53.0 | 50.1 | 62.2 |
| Jun | 54.4 | 52.7 | 52.9 | 49.5 | 60.3 |
| May | 53.6 | 52.6 | 52.0 | 48.6 | 63.9 |
| Apr | 53.2 | 52.1 | 49.0 | 45.4 | 60.1 |
| Mar | 52.3 | 49.2 | 49.4 | 46.1 | 57.3 |
| Feb | 29.6 | 26.5 | 49.3 | 43.9 | 40.0 |
| Jan | 54.1 | 50.6 | 53.3 | 50.5 | 59.6 |
| Dec 2019 | 53.5 | 50.4 | 52.4 | 50.3 | 59.1 |
| Nov | 54.4 | 51.3 | 53.2 | 51.3 | 61.0 |
| Oct | 52.8 | 49.4 | 51.3 | 48.9 | 60.7 |
| Sep | 53.7 | 50.5 | 52.8 | 50.0 | 59.7 |
| Aug | 53.8 | 50.1 | 50.8 | 49.1 | 60.4 |
| Jul | 53.7 | 50.4 | 52.9 | 50.6 | 59.8 |
| Jun | 54.2 | 51.5 | 51.5 | 49.7 | 60.6 |
| May | 54.3 | 50.3 | 52.2 | 49.9 | 60.2 |
| Apr | 54.3 | 50.8 | 53.0 | 50.5 | 60.3 |
| Mar | 54.8 | 52.5 | 52.5 | 51.0 | 61.1 |
| Feb | 54.3 | 50.7 | 52.7 | 50.1 | 61.5 |
| Jan | 54.7 | 51.0 | 52.0 | 49.8 | 59.6 |
| Dec 2018 | 53.8 | 50.4 | 50.1 | 47.6 | 60.8 |
| Nov | 53.4 | 50.1 | 50.8 | 49.4 | 60.9 |
| Oct | 53.9 | 50.1 | 54.9 | 51.2 | 60.6 |
| Sep | 54.9 | 51.0 | 55.6 | 51.5 | 60.1 |
| Aug | 54.2 | 50.6 | 54.3 | 50.9 | 61.4 |
| Jul | 54.0 | 51.0 | 53.9 | 52.0 | 60.2 |
| Jun | 55.0 | 50.6 | 53.5 | 51.1 | 60.8 |
| May | 54.9 | 51.0 | 54.2 | 50.6 | 61.0 |
| Apr | 54.8 | 51.1 | 52.7 | 50.6 | 61.5 |
| Mar | 54.6 | 50.1 | 49.9 | 49.3 | 61.1 |
| Feb | 54.4 | 50.5 | 53.2 | 49.9 | 61.2 |
| Jan | 55.3 | 51.9 | 53.9 | 52.6 | 61.7 |
| Dec 2017 | 55.0 | 52.0 | 54.8 | 52.6 | 60.9 |
| Nov | 54.8 | 51.8 | 56.2 | 52.8 | 61.6 |
| Oct | 54.3 | 51.1 | 54.3 | 51.6 | 60.6 |
| Sep | 55.4 | 52.3 | 56.1 | 51.7 | 61.7 |
| Aug | 53.4 | 50.9 | 54.4 | 51.5 | 61.0 |
| Jul | 54.5 | 51.1 | 53.1 | 50.9 | 61.1 |
| Jun | 54.9 | 51.4 | 51.2 | 49.3 | 61.1 |
| May | 54.5 | 50.9 | 51.1 | 48.8 | 60.2 |
| Apr | 54.0 | 50.5 | 51.7 | 50.2 | 59.7 |
| Mar | 55.1 | 51.9 | 52.3 | 49.7 | 61.3 |
| Feb | 54.2 | 51.2 | 53.7 | 51.4 | 62.4 |
| Jan | 54.6 | 51.3 | 55.1 | 51.0 | 58.9 |
| Dec 2016 | 54.5 | 52.1 | 56.2 | 51.9 | 59.5 |
| Nov | 54.7 | 51.8 | 53.5 | 51.4 | 60.7 |
| Oct | 54.0 | 50.9 | 53.7 | 51.5 | 60.6 |
| Sep | 53.7 | 51.4 | 51.7 | 50.1 | 61.1 |
| Aug | 53.5 | 49.8 | 52.6 | 50.4 | 59.4 |
| Jul | 53.9 | 49.9 | 51.4 | 49.5 | 59.5 |
| Jun | 53.7 | 50.8 | 51.6 | 50.6 | 58.6 |
| May | 53.1 | 49.2 | 51.6 | 49.8 | 57.8 |
| Apr | 53.5 | 48.7 | 52.1 | 49.1 | 59.1 |
| Mar | 53.8 | 50.8 | 51.4 | 49.5 | 59.0 |
| Feb | 52.7 | 48.7 | 50.5 | 48.3 | 59.5 |
| Jan | 53.5 | 49.6 | 49.9 | 47.7 | 58.4 |
| Dec2015 | 54.4 | 51.7 | 49.0 | 48.2 | 58.3 |
| Nov | 53.6 | 50.2 | 49.3 | 47.7 | 60.0 |
| Oct | 53.1 | 51.2 | 51.2 | 48.8 | 61.1 |
| Sep | 53.4 | 50.2 | 50.8 | 47.9 | 60.0 |
| Aug | 53.4 | 49.6 | 49.6 | 47.8 | 59.7 |
| Jul | 53.9 | 50.1 | 48.9 | 47.4 | 60.0 |
| Jun | 53.8 | 51.3 | 50.6 | 48.7 | 59.7 |
| May | 53.2 | 49.5 | 52.8 | 50.4 | 60.1 |
| Apr | 53.4 | 49.1 | 50.8 | 48.9 | 60.0 |
| Mar | 53.7 | 50.3 | 50.0 | 48.4 | 58.8 |
| Feb | 53.9 | 51.2 | 52.5 | 51.2 | 58.7 |
| Jan | 53.7 | 50.2 | 47.6 | 46.9 | 59.6 |
| Dec 2014 | 54.1 | 50.5 | 50.1 | 47.3 | 59.5 |
| Nov | 53.9 | 50.1 | 50.6 | 47.7 | 59.7 |
| Oct | 53.8 | 51.0 | 52.0 | 48.8 | 59.9 |
| Sep | 54.0 | 49.5 | 49.8 | 47.3 | 60.9 |
| Aug | 54.4 | 50.0 | 52.2 | 48.3 | 61.2 |
| Jul | 54.2 | 50.7 | 53.4 | 49.5 | 61.5 |
| Jun | 55.0 | 50.7 | 56.0 | 50.8 | 60.4 |
| May | 55.5 | 52.7 | 54.5 | 49.0 | 60.7 |
| Apr | 54.8 | 50.8 | 52.4 | 49.4 | 61.5 |
| Mar | 54.5 | 50.8 | 52.8 | 49.5 | 61.5 |
| Feb | 55.0 | 51.4 | 52.1 | 49.0 | 59.9 |
| Jan | 53.4 | 50.9 | 54.5 | 50.1 | 58.1 |
| Dec 2013 | 54.6 | 51.0 | 56.9 | 52.0 | 58.7 |
| Nov | 56.0 | 51.0 | 54.8 | 49.5 | 61.3 |
| Oct | 56.3 | 51.6 | 56.1 | 51.4 | 60.5 |
| Sep | 55.4 | 53.4 | 56.7 | 50.6 | 60.1 |
| Aug | 53.9 | 50.9 | 57.1 | 51.2 | 62.9 |
| Jul | 54.1 | 50.3 | 58.2 | 52.4 | 63.9 |
| Jun | 53.9 | 50.3 | 55.0 | 50.6 | 61.8 |
| May | 54.3 | 50.1 | 54.4 | 50.7 | 62.9 |
| Apr | 54.5 | 50.9 | 51.1 | 47.6 | 62.5 |
| Mar | 55.6 | 52.0 | 55.3 | 50.0 | 62.4 |
| Feb | 54.5 | 51.8 | 56.2 | 51.1 | 62.7 |
| Jan | 56.2 | 53.7 | 58.2 | 50.9 | 61.4 |
| Dec 2012 | 56.1 | 54.3 | 53.8 | 50.0 | 64.6 |
| Nov | 55.6 | 53.2 | 52.5 | 48.4 | 64.6 |
| Oct | 55.5 | 51.6 | 58.1 | 50.5 | 63.4 |
| Sep | 53.7 | 51.8 | 57.5 | 51.3 | 60.9 |
| Aug | 56.3 | 52.7 | 57.6 | 51.2 | 63.2 |
| Jul | 55.6 | 53.2 | 49.7 | 48.7 | 63.9 |
| Jun | 56.7 | 53.7 | 52.1 | 48.6 | 65.5 |
| May | 55.2 | 52.5 | 53.6 | 48.5 | 65.4 |
| Apr | 56.1 | 52.7 | 57.9 | 50.3 | 66.1 |
| Mar | 58.0 | 53.5 | 60.2 | 52.0 | 66.6 |
| Feb | 57.3 | 52.7 | 59.0 | 51.2 | 63.8 |
| Jan | 55.7 | 52.2 | 58.2 | 51.1 | 65.3 |
Notes: Interm.: Intermediate; Subs: Subscription; Exp: Business Expectations
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Chart CIPMNM provides China’s nonmanufacturing purchasing managers’ index. The index moved from 56.0 in Oct 2013 to 51.1 in Jan 2022.
Chart CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english
Table CIPMMFG provides the index of purchasing managers of manufacturing seasonally adjusted of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The general index (IPM) rose from 50.5 in Jan 2012 to 53.3 in Apr 2012, falling to 49.2 in Aug 2012, rebounding to 50.6 in Dec 2012. The index fell to 50.3 in Jul 2013, barely above the neutral frontier at 50.0, recovering to 51.4 in Nov 2013 but falling to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.5 in Jan 2014, 50.1 in Dec 2014 and 50.4 in Jul 2020. The index moved to 50.2 in Feb 2022. The index of new orders fell from 54.5 in Apr 2012 to 51.2 in Dec 2012. The index of new orders fell from 52.3 in Nov 2013 to 52.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.9 in Jan 2014 and moved to 50.4 in Dec 2014. The index moved to 50.7 in Feb 2022.
Table CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted
| IPM | PI | NOI | INV | EMP | SDEL | |
| 2022 | ||||||
| Feb | 50.2 | 50.4 | 50.7 | 48.1 | 49.2 | 48.2 |
| Jan | 50.1 | 50.9 | 49.3 | 49.1 | 48.9 | 47.6 |
| 2021 | ||||||
| Dec | 50.3 | 51.4 | 49.7 | 49.2 | 49.1 | 48.3 |
| Nov | 50.1 | 52.0 | 49.4 | 47.7 | 48.9 | 48.2 |
| Oct | 49.2 | 48.4 | 48.8 | 47.0 | 48.8 | 46.7 |
| Sep | 49.6 | 49.5 | 49.3 | 48.2 | 49.0 | 48.1 |
| Aug | 50.1 | 50.9 | 49.6 | 47.7 | 49.6 | 48.0 |
| Jul | 50.4 | 51.0 | 50.9 | 47.7 | 49.6 | 48.9 |
| Jun | 50.9 | 51.9 | 51.5 | 48.0 | 49.2 | 47.9 |
| May | 51.0 | 52.7 | 51.3 | 47.7 | 48.9 | 47.6 |
| Apr | 51.1 | 52.2 | 52.0 | 48.3 | 49.6 | 48.7 |
| Mar | 51.9 | 53.9 | 53.6 | 48.4 | 50.1 | 50.0 |
| Feb | 50.6 | 51.9 | 51.5 | 47.7 | 48.1 | 47.9 |
| Jan | 51.3 | 53.5 | 52.3 | 49.0 | 48.4 | 48.8 |
| 2020 | ||||||
| Dec | 51.9 | 54.2 | 53.6 | 48.6 | 49.6 | 49.9 |
| Nov | 52.1 | 54.7 | 53.9 | 48.6 | 49.5 | 50.1 |
| Oct | 51.4 | 53.9 | 52.8 | 48.0 | 49.3 | 50.6 |
| Sep | 51.5 | 54.0 | 52.8 | 48.5 | 49.6 | 50.7 |
| Aug | 51.0 | 53.5 | 52.0 | 47.3 | 49.4 | 50.4 |
| Jul | 51.1 | 54.0 | 51.7 | 47.9 | 49.3 | 50.4 |
| Jun | 50.9 | 53.9 | 51.4 | 47.6 | 49.1 | 50.5 |
| May | 50.6 | 53.2 | 50.9 | 47.3 | 49.4 | 50.5 |
| Apr | 50.8 | 53.7 | 50.2 | 48.2 | 50.2 | 50.1 |
| Mar | 52.0 | 54.1 | 52.0 | 49.0 | 50.9 | 48.2 |
| Feb | 35.7 | 27.8 | 29.3 | 33.9 | 31.8 | 32.1 |
| Jan | 50.0 | 51.3 | 51.4 | 47.1 | 47.5 | 49.9 |
| 2019 | ||||||
| Dec | 50.2 | 53.2 | 51.2 | 47.2 | 47.3 | 51.1 |
| Nov | 50.2 | 52.6 | 51.3 | 47.8 | 47.3 | 50.5 |
| Oct | 49.3 | 50.8 | 49.6 | 47.4 | 47.3 | 50.1 |
| Sep | 49.8 | 52.3 | 50.5 | 47.6 | 47.0 | 50.5 |
| Aug | 49.5 | 51.9 | 49.7 | 47.5 | 46.9 | 50.3 |
| Jul | 49.7 | 52.1 | 49.8 | 48.0 | 47.1 | 50.1 |
| Jun | 49.4 | 51.3 | 49.6 | 48.2 | 46.9 | 50.2 |
| May | 49.4 | 51.7 | 49.8 | 47.4 | 47.0 | 50.9 |
| Apr | 50.1 | 52.1 | 51.4 | 47.2 | 47.2 | 49.9 |
| Mar | 50.5 | 52.7 | 51.6 | 48.4 | 47.6 | 50.2 |
| Feb | 49.2 | 49.5 | 50.6 | 46.3 | 47.5 | 49.8 |
| Jan | 49.5 | 50.9 | 49.6 | 48.1 | 47.8 | 50.1 |
| 2018 | ||||||
| Dec | 49.4 | 50.8 | 49.7 | 47.1 | 48.0 | 50.4 |
| Nov | 50.0 | 51.9 | 50.4 | 47.4 | 48.3 | 50.3 |
| Oct | 50.2 | 52.0 | 50.8 | 47.2 | 48.1 | 49.5 |
| Sep | 50.8 | 53.0 | 52.0 | 47.8 | 48.3 | 49.7 |
| Aug | 51.3 | 53.3 | 52.2 | 48.7 | 49.4 | 49.6 |
| Jul | 51.2 | 53.0 | 52.3 | 48.9 | 49.2 | 50.0 |
| Jun | 51.5 | 53.6 | 53.2 | 48.8 | 49.0 | 50.2 |
| May | 51.9 | 54.1 | 53.8 | 49.6 | 49.1 | 50.1 |
| Apr | 51.4 | 53.1 | 52.9 | 49.5 | 49.0 | 50.2 |
| Mar | 51.5 | 53.1 | 53.3 | 49.6 | 49.1 | 50.1 |
| Feb | 50.3 | 50.7 | 51.0 | 49.3 | 48.1 | 48.4 |
| Jan | 51.3 | 53.5 | 52.6 | 48.8 | 48.3 | 49.2 |
| 2017 | ||||||
| Dec | 51.6 | 54.0 | 53.4 | 48.0 | 48.5 | 49.3 |
| Nov | 51.8 | 54.3 | 53.6 | 48.4 | 48.8 | 49.5 |
| Oct | 51.6 | 53.4 | 52.9 | 48.6 | 49.0 | 48.7 |
| Sep | 52.4 | 54.7 | 54.8 | 48.9 | 49.0 | 49.3 |
| Aug | 51.7 | 54.1 | 53.1 | 48.3 | 49.1 | 49.3 |
| Jul | 51.4 | 53.5 | 52.8 | 48.5 | 49.2 | 50.1 |
| Jun | 51.7 | 54.4 | 53.1 | 48.6 | 49.0 | 49.9 |
| May | 51.2 | 53.4 | 52.3 | 48.5 | 49.4 | 50.2 |
| Apr | 51.2 | 53.8 | 52.3 | 48.3 | 49.2 | 50.5 |
| Mar | 51.8 | 54.2 | 53.3 | 48.3 | 50.0 | 50.3 |
| Feb | 51.6 | 53.7 | 53.0 | 48.6 | 49.7 | 50.5 |
| Jan | 51.3 | 53.1 | 52.8 | 48.0 | 49.2 | 49.8 |
| 2016 | ||||||
| Dec | 51.4 | 53.3 | 53.2 | 48.0 | 48.9 | 50.0 |
| Nov | 51.7 | 53.9 | 53.2 | 48.4 | 49.2 | 49.7 |
| Oct | 51.2 | 53.3 | 52.8 | 48.1 | 48.8 | 50.2 |
| Sep | 50.4 | 52.8 | 50.9 | 47.4 | 48.6 | 49.9 |
| Aug | 50.4 | 52.6 | 51.3 | 47.6 | 48.4 | 50.6 |
| Jul | 49.9 | 52.1 | 50.4 | 47.3 | 48.2 | 50.5 |
| Jun | 50.0 | 52.5 | 50.5 | 47.0 | 47.9 | 50.7 |
| May | 50.1 | 52.3 | 50.7 | 47.6 | 48.2 | 50.4 |
| Apr | 50.1 | 52.2 | 51.0 | 47.4 | 47.8 | 50.1 |
| Mar | 50.2 | 52.3 | 51.4 | 48.2 | 48.1 | 51.3 |
| Feb | 49.0 | 50.2 | 48.6 | 48.0 | 47.6 | 49.8 |
| Jan | 49.4 | 51.4 | 49.5 | 46.8 | 47.8 | 50.5 |
| 2015 | ||||||
| Dec | 49.7 | 52.2 | 50.2 | 47.6 | 47.4 | 50.7 |
| Nov | 49.6 | 51.9 | 49.8 | 47.1 | 47.6 | 50.6 |
| Oct | 49.8 | 52.2 | 50.3 | 47.2 | 47.8 | 50.6 |
| Sep | 49.8 | 52.3 | 50.2 | 47.5 | 47.9 | 50.8 |
| Aug | 49.7 | 51.7 | 49.7 | 48.3 | 47.9 | 50.6 |
| Jul | 50.0 | 52.4 | 49.9 | 48.4 | 48.0 | 50.4 |
| Jun | 50.2 | 52.9 | 50.1 | 48.7 | 48.1 | 50.3 |
| May | 50.2 | 52.9 | 50.6 | 48.2 | 48.2 | 50.9 |
| Apr | 50.1 | 52.6 | 50.2 | 48.2 | 48.0 | 50.4 |
| Mar | 50.1 | 52.1 | 50.2 | 48.0 | 48.4 | 50.1 |
| Feb | 49.9 | 51.4 | 50.4 | 48.2 | 47.8 | 49.9 |
| Jan | 49.8 | 51.7 | 50.2 | 47.3 | 47.9 | 50.2 |
| 2014 | ||||||
| Dec | 50.1 | 52.2 | 50.4 | 47.5 | 48.1 | 49.9 |
| Nov | 50.3 | 52.5 | 50.9 | 47.7 | 48.2 | 50.3 |
| Oct | 50.8 | 53.1 | 51.6 | 48.4 | 48.4 | 50.1 |
| Sep | 51.1 | 53.6 | 52.2 | 48.8 | 48.2 | 50.1 |
| Aug | 51.1 | 53.2 | 52.5 | 48.6 | 48.2 | 50.0 |
| Jul | 51.7 | 54.2 | 53.6 | 49.0 | 48.3 | 50.2 |
| Jun | 51.0 | 53.0 | 52.8 | 48.0 | 48.6 | 50.5 |
| May | 50.8 | 52.8 | 52.3 | 48.0 | 48.2 | 50.3 |
| Apr | 50.4 | 52.5 | 51.2 | 48.1 | 48.3 | 50.1 |
| Mar | 50.3 | 52.7 | 50.6 | 47.8 | 48.3 | 49.8 |
| Feb | 50.2 | 52.6 | 50.5 | 47.4 | 48.0 | 49.9 |
| Jan | 50.5 | 53.0 | 50.9 | 47.8 | 48.2 | 49.8 |
| Dec 2013 | 51.0 | 53.9 | 52.0 | 47.6 | 48.7 | 50.5 |
| Nov | 51.4 | 54.5 | 52.3 | 47.8 | 49.6 | 50.6 |
| Oct | 51.4 | 54.4 | 52.5 | 48.6 | 49.2 | 50.8 |
| Sep | 51.1 | 52.9 | 52.8 | 48.5 | 49.1 | 50.8 |
| Aug | 51.0 | 52.6 | 52.4 | 48.0 | 49.3 | 50.4 |
| Jul | 50.3 | 52.4 | 50.6 | 47.6 | 49.1 | 50.1 |
| Jun | 50.1 | 52.0 | 50.4 | 47.4 | 48.7 | 50.3 |
| May | 50.8 | 53.3 | 51.8 | 47.6 | 48.8 | 50.8 |
| Apr | 50.6 | 52.6 | 51.7 | 47.5 | 49.0 | 50.8 |
| Mar | 50.9 | 52.7 | 52.3 | 47.5 | 49.8 | 51.1 |
| Feb | 50.1 | 51.2 | 50.1 | 49.5 | 47.6 | 48.3 |
| Jan | 50.4 | 51.3 | 51.6 | 50.1 | 47.8 | 50.0 |
| Dec 2012 | 50.6 | 52.0 | 51.2 | 47.3 | 49.0 | 48.8 |
| Nov | 50.6 | 52.5 | 51.2 | 47.9 | 48.7 | 49.9 |
| Oct | 50.2 | 52.1 | 50.4 | 47.3 | 49.2 | 50.1 |
| Sep | 49.8 | 51.3 | 49.8 | 47.0 | 48.9 | 49.5 |
| Aug | 49.2 | 50.9 | 48.7 | 45.1 | 49.1 | 50.0 |
| Jul | 50.1 | 51.8 | 49.0 | 48.5 | 49.5 | 49.0 |
| Jun | 50.2 | 52.0 | 49.2 | 48.2 | 49.7 | 49.1 |
| May | 50.4 | 52.9 | 49.8 | 45.1 | 50.5 | 49.0 |
| Apr | 53.3 | 57.2 | 54.5 | 48.5 | 51.0 | 49.6 |
| Mar | 53.1 | 55.2 | 55.1 | 49.5 | 51.0 | 48.9 |
| Feb | 51.0 | 53.8 | 51.0 | 48.8 | 49.5 | 50.3 |
| Jan | 50.5 | 53.6 | 50.4 | 49.7 | 47.1 | 49.7 |
IPM: Index of Purchasing Managers; PI: Production Index; NOI: New Orders Index; EMP: Employed Person Index; SDEL: Supplier Delivery Time Index
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
China estimates the manufacturing index of purchasing managers on the basis of a sample of 820 enterprises (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Chart CIPMMFG provides the manufacturing index of purchasing managers. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013. The index decreased from 51.4 in Nov 2013 to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index moved to 50.2 in Feb 2022.
Chart CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english
Chart CIPCOMP provides China’s composite, manufacturing and nonmanufacturing, index. The index remains above the neutral 50.0, moving to 51.2 in Feb 2022.
Chart CIPCOMP, China, Composite Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english
© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022.
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