CMP Associates Regulation Blog

Chart V-3C provides nonfarm payroll manufacturing jobs in the United States from Jan 2007 to Feb 2022. Nonfarm payroll manufacturing jobs fell from 13.987 million in Jun 2007 to 12.568 million in Feb 2022, or 1.419 million.

Chart V-3C, United States, Payroll Manufacturing Jobs, NSA, Jan 2007 to Feb 2022, Thousands

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm

Chart V-3D provides the index of US manufacturing (NAICS) from Jan 1972 to Feb 2022. The index continued increasing during the decline of manufacturing jobs after the early 1980s. There are likely effects of changes in the composition of manufacturing with also changes in productivity and trade. There is sharp decline in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021).

Chart V-3D, United States Manufacturing (NAICS) NSA, Jan 1972 to Feb 2022

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Chart V-3E provides the US noninstitutional civilian population, or those in condition of working, from Jan 1948, when first available, to Feb 2022. The noninstitutional civilian population increased from 170.042 million in Jun 1981 to 263.324 million in Feb 2022 or 93.282 million.

Chart V-3E, United States, Civilian Noninstitutional Population, Million, NSA, Jan 1948 to Feb 2022

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Chart V-3F provides manufacturing jobs in the United States from Jan 1939 to Feb 2022. Nonfarm payroll manufacturing jobs decreased from a peak of 18.890 million in Jun 1981 to 12.568 million in Feb 2022.

Chart V-3F, United States, Payroll Manufacturing Jobs, NSA, Jan 1939 to Feb 2022, Thousands

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/bls/other.htm https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/related-sites.html

There is global stress in manufacturing. Table V-3B provides month and 12-month percentage changes of new orders in manufacturing and output of manufacturing in Germany.

Table V-3B, Germany, Manufacturing Orders and Manufacturing Output, ∆% Month and 12 Months

	MFG New Orders Month ∆%	MFG New Orders 12 Months ∆%	MFG Output Month ∆%	MFG Output 12 Month ∆%
Jan 2022	1.8	10.5	1.3	3.9
Dec 2021	3.0	8.0	2.2	0.9
Nov	3.6	3.1	0.5	-1.4
Oct	-5.8	-2.8	3.1	-5.1
Sep	2.4	10.3	-1.0	-1.2
Aug	-9.1	13.4	-4.2	6.4
Jul	5.0	22.6	1.3	2.7
Jun	4.2	30.2	-0.3	11.2
May	-2.6	55.1	-0.8	20.4
Apr	1.1	80.2	-0.4	35.3
Mar	2.9	33.0	0.8	9.9
Feb	1.7	7.2	-2.3	-5.1
Jan	0.4	-4.3	0.1	-9.7
Dec 2020	-0.7	10.7	1.0	3.2
Nov	1.7	9.5	1.2	-1.1
Oct	3.6	3.9	3.6	-3.6
Sep	2.2	2.4	2.7	-5.3
Aug	4.4	-3.8	-0.3	-14.1
Jul	4.8	-6.4	2.0	-11.2
Jun	28.2	-6.3	11.6	-6.9
May	13.1	-33.5	11.6	-28.3
Apr	-27.7	-38.4	-22.2	-30.4
Mar	-15.4	-12.1	-10.8	-8.6
Feb	-2.8	0.3	1.3	-3.2
Jan	5.9	-1.0	2.8	-4.1
Dec 2019	-0.4	-7.1	-2.1	-4.5
Nov	-2.0	-8.5	0.5	-7.0
Oct	-0.5	-5.4	-1.1	-5.7
Sep	1.3	-1.8	-1.0	-1.1
Aug	-0.5	-9.0	0.3	-7.5
Jul	-0.4	-1.8	-0.5	-0.6
Jun	1.2	-11.0	-0.8	-14.5
May	-1.1	-3.6	0.9	1.4
Apr	-0.8	-5.2	-2.7	-4.0
Mar	1.6	-6.2	0.8	-3.3
Feb	-4.0	-7.2	0.2	0.0
Jan	-3.3	-3.6	-0.9	-3.1
Dec 2018	2.5	-8.2	0.8	-6.7
Dec 2017	3.4	3.9	-0.7	3.7
Dec 2016	4.8	11.2	-1.8	2.0
Dec 2015	-1.4	-0.5	0.8	1.1

Source: Federal Statistical Agency of Germany, https://www.destatis.de/EN/Home/_node.html

Table V-3 provides the latest available estimates of GDP for the regions and countries followed in this blog from IQ2012 to IIIQ2021 available now for all countries. Growth is weak throughout most of the world.

Japan. The GDP of Japan increased 1.4 percent in IQ2012, 5.6 percent at SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) and increased 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier but part of the jump could be the low level a year earlier because of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan is experiencing difficulties with the overvalued yen because of worldwide capital flight originating in zero interest rates with risk aversion in an environment of softer growth of world trade. Japan’s GDP fell 0.9 percent in IIQ2012 at the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of minus 3.5 percent, which is much lower than 5.6 percent in IQ2012. Growth of 2.8 percent in IIQ2012 in Japan relative to IIQ2011 has effects of the low level of output because of Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IIIQ2012 at the SAAR of minus 1.5 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 at the SAAR of minus 0.3 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP grew 1.4 percent in IQ2013 at the SAAR of 5.6 percent and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.9 percent in IIQ2013 at the SAAR of 3.7 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP grew 1.0 percent in IIIQ2013 at the SAAR of 3.9 percent and increased 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Japan’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent at the SAAR of minus 0.5 percent, increasing 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IQ2014 at the SAAR of 3.3 percent and increased 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Japan’s GDP fell 1.8 percent at the SAAR of minus 7.1 percent and fell 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 at the SAAR of 0.4 percent and fell 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, Japan’s GDP grew 0.5 percent, at the SAAR of 1.9 percent, decreasing 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 1.5 percent in IQ2015 at the SAAR of 6.3 percent and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2015 at the SAAR of 0.6 percent and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2015 at the SAAR of 0.4 percent and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.1 percent in IVQ2015 at the SAAR of minus 0.6 percent and grew 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, the GDP of Japan increased 0.7 percent at the SAAR of 2.9 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IIQ2016 at the SAAR of minus 0.6 percent and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of Japan increased 0.2 percent at the SAAR of 0.7 percent and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2016 at the SAAR of 0.6 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, the GDP of Japan increased 0.8 percent at the SAAR of 3.2 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2017 at the SAAR of 1.7 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, the GDP of Japan increased 0.8 percent at the SAAR of 3.1 percent and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2017, at the SAAR of 0.4 percent, and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, the GDP of Japan increased 0.1 percent, at the SAAR of 0.5 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2018, at the SAAR of 1.6 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, the GDP of Japan contracted 0.7 percent at the SAAR of minus 2.9 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IVQ2018, at the SAAR of minus 0.8 percent and decreased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, the GDP of Japan increased 0.5 percent at the SAAR of 1.9 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2019, at the SAAR of 2.1 percent and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, the GDP of Japan changed 0.0 percent at the SAAR of 0.0 percent and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP decreased 2.7 percent in IVQ2019, at the SAAR of minus 10.5 percent and decreased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2020, the GDP of Japan grew 0.4 percent at the SAAR of 1.7 percent and decreased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan contracted 7.9 percent in IIQ2020 at the SAAR of minus 28.2 percent and decreased 10.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2020, the GDP of Japan increased 5.3 percent at the SAAR of 23.0 percent and decreased 5.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 1.9 percent in IVQ2020 at the SAAR of 7.7 percent and decreased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2021, the GDP of Japan contracted 0.5 percent at the SAAR of minus 2.2 percent and decreased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2021 at the SAAR of 2.4 percent and increased 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2021, the GDP of Japan decreased 0.7 percent at the SAAR of minus 2.8 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 1.1 percent in IVQ2021 at the SAAR of 4.6 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier.
China. China’s GDP grew 1.9 percent in IQ2012, annualizing to 7.8 percent, and 8.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 2.1 percent in IIQ2012, which annualizes to 8.7 percent, and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 1.8 percent in IIIQ2012, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and 7.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, China grew at 2.0 percent, which annualizes at 8.2 percent, and 8.1 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, China grew at 1.9 percent, which annualizes at 7.8 percent, and 7.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, China grew at 1.8 percent, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 2.1 percent in IIIQ2013, which annualizes at 8.7 percent, and increased 7.9 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 1.6 percent in IVQ2013, which annualized to 6.6 percent, and 7.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 7.5 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent in IQ2014 that is equivalent to 7.4 percent per year. GDP grew 7.6 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is annual equivalent 7.4 percent. In IIIQ2014, GDP grew 7.2 percent relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is 7.4 percent in annual equivalent. GDP grew 1.7 percent in IVQ2014, which is 7.0 percent in annual equivalent and 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2015, GDP grew 1.9 percent, which is equivalent to 7.8 in a year and 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 1.8 percent in IIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.4 percent in a year, and grew 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.7 percent in IIIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent in a year, and grew 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.6 percent in IVQ2015, which is equivalent to 6.6 percent in a year and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, GDP grew at 1.4 percent, which is equivalent to 5.7 percent in a year, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.9 percent in IIQ2016, which is annual equivalent to 7.8 percent, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, GDP grew at 1.7 percent, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent in a year and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, GDP grew at 1.6 percent, equivalent to 6.6 percent in a year, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 7.0 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased at 1.7 percent, which is 7.0 percent in annual equivalent. In IIQ2017, GDP grew at 1.7 percent, which is annual equivalent at 7.0 percent, and increased 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.6 percent in IIIQ2017, which is annual equivalent at 6.6 percent, and increased at 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, GDP grew 1.6 percent, which is annual equivalent to 6.6 percent, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.8 percent in IQ2018, which is annual equivalent at 7.4 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2018, GDP grew at 1.6 percent, which is annual equivalent to 6.6 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.4 percent in IIIQ2018, which is annual equivalent at 5.7 percent, and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2018, GDP grew at 1.5 percent, which is annual equivalent to 6.1 percent, and increased 6.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.6 percent in IQ2019, which is annual equivalent to 6.6 percent, and increased 6.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2019, GDP grew at 1.2 percent, which is annual equivalent to 4.9 percent and increased 6.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.4 percent in IIIQ2019, which is annual equivalent to 5.7 percent, and increased 5.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2019, GDP grew at 1.3 percent, which is annual equivalent to 5.3 percent, and increased 5.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP contracted minus 10.5 percent in IQ2020, which is annual equivalent to minus 35.8 percent, and contracted minus 6.9 percent in IQ2020 relative to a year earlier, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021). GDP grew at 11.6 percent in IIQ2020, which is equivalent to 55.1 percent in a year and grew 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2020, GDP grew 3.4 percent, which is annual equivalent at 14.3 percent, and grew 4.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 2.6 percent in IVQ2020, which is equivalent to 10.8 percent in a year, and grew 6.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2021, GDP grew 0.3 percent, which is annual equivalent at 1.2 percent, and grew 18.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 1.3 percent in IIQ2021, which is annual equivalent at 5.3 percent, and increased 7.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2021, GDP grew 0.7 percent, which is annual equivalent at 2.8 percent and increased 4.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 1.6 percent in IVQ2021, which is annual equivalent at 6.6 percent, and increased 4.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Growth rates of GDP of China in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier have been declining from 2011 to 2021.

Euro Area. GDP fell 0.2 percent in the euro area in IQ2012 and decreased 0.5 in IQ2012 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP contracted 0.3 percent IIQ2012 and fell 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.1 percent and declined 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.4 percent relative to the prior quarter and fell 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, the GDP of the euro area fell 0.4 percent and decreased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2013, euro area GDP increased 0.3 percent and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2013 and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The euro area’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 0.7 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The euro area’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2016 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, euro area GDP increased 0.7 percent and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2017 and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.7 percent and grew 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area grew 0.9 percent in IVQ2017 and increased 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.1 percent and grew 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area grew 0.5 percent in IIQ2018 and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.6 percent in IVQ2018 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.7 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2019 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2019 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2020, the GDP of the euro area decreased 3.5 percent and decreased 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area contracted 11.7 percent in IIQ2020 and contracted 14.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2020, the GDP of the euro area increased 12.6 percent and contracted 4.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area contracted 0.4 percent in IVQ2020 and contracted 4.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2021, the GDP of the euro area contracted 0.2 percent and contracted 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 2.2 percent in IIQ2021 and grew 14.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2021, the GDP of the euro area increased 2.2 percent and grew 3.9 percent relative to a year earlier.
Germany. The GDP of Germany increased 0.2 percent in IQ2012 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier but 1.0 percent when adjusted for calendar effects (CA). In IIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier but 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier when adjusted for calendar effects (CA). In IIIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IVQ2012 and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, Germany’s GDP decreased 0.5 percent and fell 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 1.1 percent and grew 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2013 and grew 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.9 percent in IQ2014 and grew 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Germany’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany decreased 0.5 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2015 and grew 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2015 and grew 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2015 and grew 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, the GDP of Germany increased 0.8 percent and grew 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 3.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of Germany increased 0.3 percent and grew 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2016 and grew 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, the GDP of Germany increased 1.2 percent and grew 3.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2017 and grew 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier and 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier adjusting for calendar effects (CA). In IIIQ2017, the GDP of Germany increased 0.9 percent and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier and 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2017, 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier and 3.7 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany decreased 0.4 percent in IQ2018 and grew 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier and 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2018, 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier and 1.8 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany decreased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2018, increasing 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier and 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2018, increasing 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier and 0.1 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany increased 1.1 percent in IQ2019, increasing 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier and increasing 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP contracted 0.5 percent in IIQ2019, increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier and increased 0.5 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2019, increasing 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier and increasing 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2019, increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP decreased 1.8 percent in IQ2020, decreased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier and decreased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany decreased 10.0 percent in IIQ2020, decreased 11.3 percent relative to a year earlier and decreased 11.3 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 9.0 percent in IIIQ2020, decreased 3.6 percent relative to a year earlier and decreased 3.7 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2020, decreased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier and decreased 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP decreased 1.9 percent in IQ2021, decreased 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier and decreased 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany increased 2.0 percent in IIQ2021, increased 10.4 percent relative to a year earlier and increased 10.0 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany increased 1.7 percent in IIIQ2021, increased 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier and increased 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier (CA).
United States. Growth of US GDP in IQ2012 was 0.8 percent, at SAAR of 3.3 percent and higher by 2.6 percent relative to IQ2011. US GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2012, 1.8 percent at SAAR and 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, US GDP grew 0.2 percent, 0.7 percent at SAAR and 2.6 percent relative to IIIQ2011. In IVQ2012, US GDP grew 0.1 percent, 0.4 percent at SAAR and 1.6 percent relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, US GDP grew at 3.5 percent SAAR, 0.9 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.6 percent relative to the same quarter in 2012. In IIQ2013, US GDP grew at 0.6 percent in SAAR, 0.1 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.3 percent relative to IIQ2012. US GDP grew at 3.2 percent in SAAR in IIIQ2013, 0.8 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.9 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2022/02/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-of-70-percent-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2022/01/fomc-states-with-inflation-well-above-2.html). In IVQ2013, US GDP grew 0.7 percent at 2.9 percent SAAR and 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, US GDP decreased 0.4 percent, increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier and fell 1.4 percent at SAAR. In IIQ2014, US GDP increased 1.3 percent at 5.2 percent SAAR and increased 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP increased 1.2 percent in IIIQ2014 at 4.7 percent SAAR and increased 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, US GDP increased 0.4 percent at SAAR of 1.8 percent and increased 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IQ2015 at SAAR of 3.3 percent and grew 3.8 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.3 percent in IIQ2015, increasing 0.6 percent in the quarter and 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2015 at SAAR of 1.3 percent and grew 2.2 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 0.6 percent in IVQ2015, increasing 0.1 percent in the quarter and 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, US GDP grew 0.6 percent at SAAR of 2.4 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 1.2 percent in IIQ2016, increasing 0.3 percent in the quarter and 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, US GDP grew 0.6 percent at SAAR of 2.4 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.0 percent in IVQ2016, increasing 0.5 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, US GDP grew 0.5 percent at SAAR of 1.9 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.3 percent in IIQ2017, increasing 0.6 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, US GDP grew 0.7 percent at SAAR of 2.9 percent and increased 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 3.8 percent in IVQ2017, increasing 0.9 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, US GDP grew at SAAR of 3.1 percent, increasing 0.8 percent in the quarter, and increasing 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 3.4 percent in IIQ2018, increasing 0.8 percent in the quarter, and increasing 3.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, US GDP grew at SAAR of 1.9 percent, increasing 0.5 percent in the quarter, and increasing 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 0.9 percent in IVQ2018, increasing 0.2 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.4 percent, increasing 0.6 percent in the quarter and increasing 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 3.2 percent in IIQ2019, increasing 0.8 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.8 percent, increasing 0.7 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 1.9 percent in IVQ2019, increasing 0.5 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2020, US GDP contracted at SAAR of minus 5.1 percent, decreasing 1.3 percent in the quarter, and increasing 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2020, US GDP contracted at SAAR of minus 31.2 percent, decreasing 8.9 percent in the quarter and decreasing 9.1 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 33.8 percent in IIIQ2020, increasing 7.5 percent in the quarter, and decreasing 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2020, US GDP grew at SAAR of 4.5 percent, increasing 1.1 percent in the quarter and decreasing 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 6.3 percent in IQ2021, increasing 1.5 percent in the quarter and increasing 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2021, US GDP grew at SAAR of 6.7 percent, increasing 1.6 percent in the quarter and increasing 12.2 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP increased at SAAR of 2.3 percent in IIIQ2021, increasing 0.5 percent in the quarter and increasing 4.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2021, US GDP grew at SAAR of 7.0 percent, increasing 1.7 percent in the quarter and increasing 5.6 percent relative to a year earlier.
United Kingdom. In IQ2012, UK GDP increased 0.7 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, GDP fell 0.1 percent relative to IQ2012 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, GDP increased 1.2 percent and increased 2.0 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier. In IVQ2012, GDP fell 0.2 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Fiscal consolidation in an environment of weakening economic growth is much more challenging. GDP increased 1.4 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 0.5 percent in IQ2013 relative to IVQ2012. In IIQ2013, GDP increased 0.7 percent and 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIIQ2013 and 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2013 and 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, GDP increased 0.9 percent and 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2014 and 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIIQ2014 and 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, GDP increased 0.6 percent and 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2015 and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2016 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2016 and grew 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2016 and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2017 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2017 and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, GDP increased 0.4 percent and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2017 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2018 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, GDP increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2018 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, GDP increased 0.6 percent and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2019 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, GDP increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2019 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2020, GDP decreased 2.6 percent and decreased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP decreased 19.4 percent in IIQ2020 and decreased 21.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2020, GDP increased 17.6 percent and decreased 7.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.5 percent in IVQ2020 and decreased 6.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2021, GDP contracted 1.3 percent and contracted 5.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 5.4 percent in IIQ2021 and increased 24.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2021, GDP increased 1.1 percent and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier.
Italy. The GDP of Italy grew 2.6 percent in IIIQ2021 and grew 3.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy grew 2.7 percent in IIQ2021 and grew 17.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 0.3 percent in IQ2021 and contracted 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP contracted 1.6 percent in IVQ2020 and contracted 6.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 15.6 percent in IIIQ2020 and contracted 5.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy contracted 12.9 percent in IIQ2020 and contracted 18.1 percent relative to a year earlier in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021). Italy’s GDP contracted 5.7 percent in IQ2020 and decreased 5.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy decreased 0.4 percent in IVQ2019 and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2019 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2019, Italy’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IQ2019 and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2018, the GDP of Italy increased 0.3 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.1 percent in IIIQ2018 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2018, the GDP of Italy changed 0.0 percent and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IQ2018 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, the GDP of Italy increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2017 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2017, the GDP of Italy increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, the GDP of Italy increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2016, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2015, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP decreased 0.3 percent in IVQ2014 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.2 percent in IQ2014 and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IVQ2013 and fell 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2013 and fell 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.9 percent in IQ2013 and declined 2.9 percent relative to IQ2013. GDP had been growing during six consecutive quarters but at very low rates from IQ2010 to IIQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell in seven consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at increasingly higher rates of contraction from 0.5 percent in IIIQ2011 to 0.9 percent in IVQ2011, 1.1 percent in IQ2012, 0.7 percent in IIQ2012 and 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012. The pace of decline accelerated to minus 0.8 percent in IVQ2012 and minus 0.9 percent in IQ2013. GDP contracted cumulatively 5.3 percent in seven consecutive quarterly contractions from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at the annual equivalent rate of minus 3.1 percent. The year-on-year rate has fallen from 2.1 percent in IVQ2010 to minus 3.1 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.9 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.2 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.4 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.9 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.4 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.4 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.3 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IIIQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.3 percent in IVQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.8 percent in IIQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IIIQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.9 percent in IVQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.3 percent in IQ2018 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.9 percent in IIQ2018 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2018 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2018 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2019 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2019 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIIQ2019 relative to a year earlier and decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2019 relative to a year earlier. GDP contracted 5.9 percent in IQ2020 relative to a year earlier and contracted 18.1 percent in IIQ2020 relative to a year earlier in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021). GDP contracted 5.4 percent in IIIQ2020 relative to a year earlier and contracted 6.6 percent in IVQ2020 relative to a year earlier. GDP contracted 0.6 percent in IQ2021 relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 17.1 percent in IIQ2021 relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2021, GDP grew 3.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Istat updated the national accounts of Italy, using 2015 base, with the release of Mar 3, 2021 (https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/254320). Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/), the GDP of Italy (using the base of 2015) in IIIQ2021 of €425,375.0 million (https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/254320) is lower by 6.1 percent relative to €453,226.4 million in IQ2008 (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/). Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/), the GDP of Italy increased from €391,789.2 million in IQ1998 to €453,226.4 million in IQ2008 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.5 percent. The fiscal adjustment of Italy is significantly more difficult with the economy not growing especially on the prospects of increasing government revenue. The strategy is for reforms to improve productivity, facilitating future fiscal consolidation.
France. France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2012 and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IIQ2012 and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2013 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2013 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2013 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2015, France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2015, the GDP of France increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France decreased 0.2 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, the GDP of France increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2017, the GDP of France increased 0.8 percent and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2017 and increased 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, the GDP of France increased 0.8 percent and increased 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IQ2018 and increased 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2018, the GDP of France increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2018 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2018, the GDP of France increased 0.7 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2019 and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2019, the GDP of France increased 0.5 percent and increased 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2019 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2019, the GDP of France decreased 0.4 percent and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 5.7 percent in IQ2020 and decreased 5.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2020, the GDP of France decreased 13.5 percent and decreased 18.6 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 18.6 percent in IIIQ2020 and decreased 3.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2020, the GDP of France contracted 1.1 percent and decreased 4.3 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2021 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2021, the GDP of France increased 1.3 percent and increased 19.0 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 3.1 percent in IIIQ2021 and increased 3.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2021 and increased 5.4 percent relative to a year earlier.

Table V-3, Percentage Changes of GDP Quarter on Prior Quarter and on Same Quarter Year Earlier, ∆%

	IQ2012/IVQ2011	IQ2012/IQ2011
USA	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.3	2.6
Japan	QOQ: 1.4 SAAR: 5.6	3.0
China	1.9 AE 7.8	8.1
Euro Area	-0.2	-0.5
Germany	0.2	1.5 CA 1.0
France	0.1	0.7
Italy	-1.2	-2.4
United Kingdom	0.7	1.2
	IIQ2012/IQ2012	IIQ2012/IIQ2011
USA	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 1.8	2.4
Japan	QOQ: -0.9 SAAR: -3.5	2.8
China	2.1 AE 8.7	7.6
Euro Area	-0.3	-0.8
Germany	0.2	0.4 CA 0.9
France	-0.2	0.5
Italy	-0.7	-3.2
United Kingdom	-0.1	1.1
	IIIQ2012/ IIQ2012	IIIQ2012/ IIIQ2011
USA	QOQ: 0.2 SAAR: 0.7	2.6
Japan	QOQ: –0.4 SAAR: –1.5	-0.1
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.5
Euro Area	-0.1	-1.0
Germany	0.3	-0.1 (CA) 0.4
France	0.2	0.3
Italy	-0.5	-3.3
United Kingdom	1.2	2.0
	IVQ2012/IIIQ2012	IVQ2012/IVQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.4	1.6
Japan	QOQ: -0.1 SAAR: -0.3	-0.1
China	2.0 AE 8.2	8.1
Euro Area	-0.4	-1.0
Germany	-0.4	-0.1 (CA) 0.2
France	-0.1	0.1
Italy	-0.8	-3.2
United Kingdom	-0.2	1.6
	IQ2013/IVQ2012	IQ2013/IQ2012
United States	QOQ: 0.9 SAAR: 3.5	1.6
Japan	QOQ: 1.4 SAAR: 5.6	0.0
China	1.9 AE 7.8	7.9
Euro Area	-0.4	-1.2
Germany	-0.5	-1.5 (CA) -0.3
France	0.0	0.0
Italy	-0.9	-2.9
UK	0.5	1.4
	IIQ2013/IQ2013	IIQ2013/IIQ2012
USA	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.6	1.3
Japan	QOQ: 0.9 SAAR: 3.7	1.8
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.6
Euro Area	0.5	-0.4
Germany	1.1	0.8 (CA) 0.4
France	0.7	0.8
Italy	0.0	-2.2
UK	0.7	2.1
	IIIQ2013/IIQ2013	III/Q2013/IIIQ2012
USA	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.2	1.9
Japan	QOQ: 1.0 SAAR: 3.9	3.0
China	2.1 AE 8.7	7.9
Euro Area	0.3	0.1
Germany	0.6	1.2 (CA) 0.7
France	0.0	0.6
Italy	0.2	-1.5
UK	0.8	1.6
	IVQ2013/IIIQ2013	IVQ2013/IVQ2012
USA	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.9	2.5
Japan	QOQ: -0.1 SAAR: -0.5	3.1
China	1.6 AE 6.6	7.7
Euro Area	0.3	0.7
Germany	0.3	1.2 (CA) 1.4
France	0.5	1.1
Italy	-0.2	-0.9
UK	0.5	2.4
	IQ2014/IVQ2013	IQ2014/IQ2013
USA	QOQ -0.4 SAAR -1.4	1.3
Japan	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.3	2.9
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.5
Euro Area	0.4	1.5
Germany	0.9	3.2 (CA) 3.0
France	0.1	1.2
Italy	0.1	0.1
UK	0.9	2.9
	IIQ2014/IQ2014	IIQ2014/IIQ2013
USA	QOQ 1.3 SAAR 5.2	2.5
Japan	QOQ: -1.8 SAAR: -7.1	-0.1
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.6
Euro Area	0.2	1.2
Germany	0.0	1.4 (CA) 1.8
France	0.1	0.7
Italy	0.0	0.1
UK	0.8	3.1
	IIIQ2014/IIQ2014	IIIQ2014/IIIQ2013
USA	QOQ: 1.2 SAAR: 4.7	2.8
Japan	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.4	-1.1
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.2
Euro Area	0.4	1.4
Germany	0.5	1.8 (CA) 1.8
France	0.5	1.2
Italy	0.1	0.0
UK	0.7	3.0
	IVQ2014/IIIQ2014	IVQ2014/IVQ2013
USA	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.8	2.6
Japan	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 1.9	-0.5
China	1.7 AE 7.0	7.3
Euro Area	0.4	1.5
Germany	0.8	2.4 (CA) 2.3
France	0.1	0.8
Italy	-0.2	0.0
UK	0.6	3.0
	IQ2015/IVQ2014	IQ2015/IQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.3	3.8
Japan	QOQ: 1.5 SAAR: 6.3	0.3
China	1.9 AE 7.8	7.1
Euro Area	0.7	1.8
Germany	-0.5	1.0 (CA) 0.9
France	0.5	1.2
Italy	0.2	0.1
UK	0.6	2.7
	IIQ2015/IQ2015	IIQ2015/IIQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.3	3.0
Japan	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.6	2.4
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.1
Euro Area	0.4	2.0
Germany	0.7	1.5 (CA) 1.5
France	0.0	1.1
Italy	0.4	0.5
UK	0.7	2.6
	IIIQ2015/IIQ2015	IIIQ2015/IIIQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.3	2.2
Japan	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.4	2.2
China	1.7 AE 7.0	7.0
Euro Area	0.4	2.0
Germany	0.5	1.5 (CA) 1.4
France	0.3	0.9
Italy	0.2	0.6
UK	0.5	2.5
	IVQ2015/IIIQ2015	IVQ2015/IVQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.6	1.9
Japan	QOQ: -0.1 SAAR: -0.6	1.5
China	1.6 AE 6.6	6.9
Euro Area	0.5	2.0
Germany	0.4	1.9 (CA) 1.1
France	0.2	1.0
Italy	0.5	1.4
UK	0.7	2.6
	IQ2016/IVQ2015	IQ2016/IQ2015
USA	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.4	1.6
Japan	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.9	1.0
China	1.4 AE 5.7	6.9
Euro Area	0.6	1.9
Germany	0.8	2.2 (CA) 2.5
France	0.6	1.1
Italy	0.3	1.4
UK	0.4	2.4
	IIQ2016/IQ2016	IIQ2016/IIQ2015
USA	QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.2	1.4
Japan	QOQ: -0.1 SAAR: -0.6	0.5
China	1.9 AE 7.8	6.8
Euro Area	0.3	1.7
Germany	0.4	3.6 (CA) 2.2
France	-0.2	1.0
Italy	0.2	1.3
UK	0.6	2.3
	IIIQ2016/IIQ2016	IIIQ2016/IIIQ2015
USA	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.4	1.6
Japan	QOQ: 0.2 SAAR: 0.7	0.5
China	1.7 AE 7.0	6.8
Euro Area	0.5	1.7
Germany	0.3	1.9 (CA) 2.0
France	0.2	0.8
Italy	0.5	1.6
UK	0.4	2.2
	IVQ2016/IIIQ2016	IVQ2016/IVQ2015
USA	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.0	2.0
Japan	QOQ: 0.2 SAAR: 0.6	1.0
China	1.6 AE 6.6	6.9
Euro Area	0.7	2.0
Germany	0.3	1.4 (CA) 1.9
France	0.5	1.2
Italy	0.3	1.3
UK	0.7	2.2
	IQ2017/IVQ2016	IQ2017/IQ2016
USA	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 1.9	1.9
Japan	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.2	1.0
China	1.7 AE 7.0	7.0
Euro Area	0.7	2.2
Germany	1.2	3.6 (CA) 2.4
France	0.8	1.4
Italy	0.6	1.6
UK	0.6	2.4
	IIQ2017/IQ2017	IIQ2017/IIQ2016
USA	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.3	2.1
Japan	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.7	1.4
China	1.7 AE 7.0	7.0
Euro Area	0.8	2.7
Germany	0.8	1.3 CA 2.7
France	0.8	2.4
Italy	0.4	1.8
UK	0.3	2.2
	IIIQ2017/IIQ2017	IIIQ2017/IIIQ2016
USA	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.9	2.3
Japan	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.1	2.1
China	1.6 AE 6.6	6.9
Euro Area	0.7	3.0
Germany	0.9	2.7 CA 3.2
France	0.6	2.8
Italy	0.4	1.7
UK	0.4	2.1
	IVQ2017/IIIQ2017	IVQ2017/IVQ2016
USA	QOQ: 0.9 SAAR: 3.8	2.7
Japan	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.4	2.2
China	1.6 AE 6.6	6.8
Euro Area	0.9	3.1
Germany	0.8	3.1 CA 3.7
France	0.8	3.1
Italy	0.6	1.9
UK	0.4	1.8
	IQ2018/IVQ2017	IQ2018/IQ2017
USA	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.1	3.0
Japan	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.5	1.4
China	1.8 AE 7.4	6.9
Euro Area	0.1	2.5
Germany	-0.4	1.4 CA 2.1
France	0.0	2.3
Italy	0.0	1.4
UK	0.2	1.4
	IIQ2018/IQ2018	IIQ2018/IIQ2017
USA	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.4	3.3
Japan	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.6	1.3
China	1.6 AE 6.6	6.9
Euro Area	0.5	2.1
Germany	0.6	2.2 CA 1.8
France	0.3	1.9
Italy	0.0	1.0
UK	0.5	1.6
	IIIQ2018/IIQ2018	IIIQ2018/IIIQ2017
USA	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 1.9	3.1
Japan	QOQ -0.7 SAAR: -2.9	-0.1
China	1.4 AE 5.7	6.7
Euro Area	0.1	1.5
Germany	-0.4	0.4 CA 0.5
France	0.4	1.6
Italy	0.1	0.6
UK	0.6	1.8
	IVQ2018/IIIQ2018	IVQ2018/IVQ2017
USA	QOQ: 0.2 SAAR: 0.9	2.3
Japan	QOQ: -0.2 SAAR: -0.8	-0.2
China	1.5 AE 6.1	6.5
Euro Area	0.6	1.2
Germany	0.4	0.3 CA 0.1
France	0.7	1.5
Italy	0.2	0.3
UK	0.3	1.8
	IQ2019/IV2018	IQ2019/IQ2018
USA	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.4	2.2
Japan	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 1.9	-0.1
China	1.6 AE 6.6	6.3
Euro Area	0.7	1.9
Germany	1.1	1.5 CA 1.6
France	0.6	2.1
Italy	0.0	0.3
UK	0.6	2.2
	IIQ2019/IQ2019	IIQ2019/IIQ2018
USA	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.2	2.1
Japan	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.1	0.1
China	1.2 AE 4.9	6.0
Euro Area	0.2	1.6
Germany	-0.5	0.1 CA 0.5
France	0.5	2.3
Italy	0.1	0.4
UK	0.1	1.8
	IIIQ2019/IIQ2019	IIIQ2019/IIIQ2018
USA	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR 2.8	2.3
Japan	QOQ: 0.0 SAAR: 0.0	0.8
China	1.4 AE 5.7	5.9
Euro Area	0.2	1.7
Germany	0.4	1.8 CA 1.3
France	0.1	2.0
Italy	0.2	0.5
UK	0.5	1.6
	IVQ2019/IIIQ2019	IVQ2019/IVQ2018
USA	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 1.9	2.6
Japan	QOQ: -2.7 SAAR: -10.5	-1.7
China	1.3 AE 5.3	5.8
Euro Area	0.0	1.2
Germany	-0.1	0.7 CA 0.9
France	-0.4	0.9
Italy	-0.4	-0.1
UK	0.0	1.2
	IQ2020/IVQ2019	IQ2020/IQ2019
USA	QOQ: -1.3 SAAR: -5.1	0.6
Japan	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.7	-1.8
China	-10.5 (-35.8)	-6.9
Euro Area	-3.5	-3.1
Germany	-1.8	-1.5 CA -1.9
France	-5.7	-5.5
Italy	-5.6	-5.8
UK	-2.6	-2.1
	IIQ2020/IQ2020	IIQ2020/IIQ2019
USA	QOQ: -8.9 SAAR: -31.2	-9.1
Japan	QOQ: -7.9 SAAR: -28.2	-10.1
China	11.6 (55.1)	3.1
Euro Area	-11.7	-14.5
Germany	-10.0	-11.3 CA -11.3
France	-13.5	-18.6
Italy	-13.1	-18.2
UK	-19.4	-21.2
	IIIQ2020/IIQ2020	IIIQ2020/IIIQ2019
USA	QOQ: 7.5 SAAR: 33.8	-2.9
Japan	QOQ: 5.3 SAAR: 23.0	-5.4
China	3.4 (14.3)	4.8
Euro Area	12.6	-4.1
Germany	9.0	-3.6 CA -3.7
France	18.6	-3.6
Italy	16.0	-5.2
UK	17.6	-7.8
	IVQ2020/IIIQ2020	IVQ2020/IVQ2019
USA	QOQ: 1.1 SAAR: 4.5	-2.3
Japan	QOQ: 1.9 SAAR: 7.7	-0.8
China	2.6 (10.8)	6.4
Euro Area	-0.4	-4.4
Germany	0.7	-1.9 CA -2.9
France	-1.1	-4.3
Italy	-1.8	-6.5
UK	1.5	-6.4
	IQ2021/IVQ2020	IQ2021/IQ2020
USA	QOQ: 1.5 SAAR: 6.3	0.5
Japan	QOQ: -0.5 SAAR: -2.2	-1.8
China	0.3 (1.2)	18.3
Euro Area	-0.2	-1.1
Germany	-1.9	-3.2 CA -2.9
France	0.2	1.7
Italy	0.2	-0.7
UK	-1.3	-5.1
	IIQ2021/IQ2021	IIQ2021/IIQ2020
USA	QOQ:1.6 SAAR: 6.7	12.2
Japan	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.4	7.3
China	1.3 AE 5.3	7.9
Euro Area	2.2	14.4
Germany	2.0	10.4 CA 10.0
France	1.3	19.0
Italy	2.7	17.3
UK	5.4	24.2
	IIIQ2021/IIQ2021	IIIQ2021/IIIQ2020
USA	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.3	4.9
Japan	QOQ -0.7 SAAR: -2.8	1.2
China	0.7 AE 2.8	4.9
Euro Area	2.2	3.9
Germany	1.7	2.5 CA 2.5
France	3.1	3.5
Italy	2.6	3.9
UK	1.1	6.8
	IVQ2021/IIIQ2021	IVQ2021/IVQ2020
USA	QOQ: 1.7 SAAR: 7.0	5.6
Japan	QOQ: 1.1 SAAR: 4.6	0.4
China	1.6 (6.6)	4.0
France	0.7	5.4

QOQ: quarter relative to prior quarter; SAAR: seasonally adjusted annual rate

AE: annual equivalent

Source: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.bls.gov/bls/other.htm https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/related-sites.html

Table V-4 provides two types of data: growth of exports and imports in the latest available months and in the past 12 months; and contributions of net trade (exports less imports) to growth of real GDP.

Japan. Japan provides the most worrisome data (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/global-decline-of-values-of-financial.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/07/valuation-of-risk-financial-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/fluctuating-financial-asset-valuations.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/dollar-revaluation-squeezing-corporate.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/patience-on-interest-rate-increases.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/monetary-policy-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/valuation-risks-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/interest-rate-risks-world-inflation.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/global-financial-risk-world-inflation.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations_8763.html http://cmpass ocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/paring-quantitative-easing-policy-and_4699.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/thirty-one-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/12/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_24.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/11/contraction-of-united-states-real_25.html and for GDP http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what_13.html). In Feb 2022, Japan’s exports increased 19.1 percent in 12 months while imports increased 34.0 percent. The second part of Table V-4 shows that net trade added 0.7 percent in IQ2012, deducting 1.9 percent in IIQ2012. Net trade deducted 1.9 percent in IIIQ2012. Net traded deducted 0.3 percent in IVQ2012. Net trade added 1.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2013 but deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIQ2013, deducting 1.3 percentage points in IIIQ2013 and 2.1 percentage points in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 1.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2014. Net trade added 4.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 1.8 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2014. Net trade contributed 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2015 and deducted 0.7-percentage points in IIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.4 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015 and added 1.4 percentage points in IQ2016. Net trade contributed 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade added 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2016 and contributed 0.9 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade contributed 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017 and deducted 0.7 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade contributed 1.9 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017 and deducted 0.5 percentage-point in IVQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018 and contributed 0.4 percentage points in IIQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.9 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018 and deducted 2.4 percentage points in IVQ2018. Net trade contributed 1.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2019 with export contraction deducting 1.4 percent and import contraction contributing 2.7 percent. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2019. Net trade deducted 1.5 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade contributed 1.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2020 with export contraction deducting 3.3 percentage points and import contraction adding 2.6 percentage points. Net trade deducted 9.8 percentage points in IIQ2020 with export contraction deducting 11.1 percentage points and imports contributing 1.2 percentage points. Net trade contributed 11.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2020 with export growth contributing 5.6 percentage points and import contraction contribution of 5.6 percentage points. Net trade contributed 3.1 percentage points to GDP in IVQ2020 with export growth contributing 6.7 percentage points and imports deducting 3.6 percentage points. Net trade deducted 0.4 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2021 with exports contributing 1.4 percent and imports deducting 1.8 percent. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2021 with exports contributing 2.1 percent and imports deducting 2.5 percent. Net trade contributed 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2021 with exports deducting 0.2 percent and imports contributing 0.6 percent. Net trade contributed 0.9 percent in IVQ2021 with exports contributing 0.6 percent and imports 0.2 percent. Private consumption assumed the role of driver of Japan’s economic growth but should moderate as in most mature economies.
China. The exports of China increased 16.3 percent in Jan-Feb 2022 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 15.5 percent.

Germany. Germany’s exports decreased 2.8 percent in the month of Jan 2021 and increased 7.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2022. Germany’s imports decreased 4.2 percent in the month of Jan 2022 and increased 22.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2022. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to growth of GDP in IQ2012, contributed 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2012, contributed 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2012, deducted 0.5 percentage points in IVQ2012, deducted 0.3 percentage points in IQ2013 and deducted 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded deducted 0.0 percentage points from Germany’s GDP growth in IIIQ2013 and added 0.9 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2014 and added 0.7 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points in IVQ2015 and deducted 0.9 percentage points in IQ2016. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.9 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade added 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017. Net trade deducted 1.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2017. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018 and contributed 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.4 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2019. Net trade deducted 1.6 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2019. Net traded added 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 1.2 percentage points in IQ2020 and deducted 3.3 percentage points in IIQ2020. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points in IIIQ2020. Net trade contributed 1.2 percentage points in IVQ2020. Net trade contributed 0.9 percentage points in IQ2021. Net trade contributed 3.3 percentage points in IIQ2021. Net trade deducted 0.9 percentage points in IIIQ2021.
United Kingdom. Net trade contributed 0.7 percentage points in IIQ2013. In IIIQ2013, net trade deducted 1.7 percentage points from UK growth. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to UK value added in IVQ2013. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to UK value added in IQ2014 and 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2014 and added 0.0 percentage points in IVQ2014. Net traded deducted 0.4 percentage points from growth in IQ2015. Net trade added 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.1-percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 1.8 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade added 1.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2016. Net trade added 0.33 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017 and contributed 0.01 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.11 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.28 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade added 0.42 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.48 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.45 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.29 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2018. Net trade deducted 2.85 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2019. Net trade contributed 2.86 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2019. Net trade contributed 1.37 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade contributed 2.26 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 2.61 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2020. Net trade contributed 3.22 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2020. Net trade deducted 4.04 percentage points from GDP in IIIQ2020. Net trade deducted 2.03 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2020. Net trade contributed 1.19 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2021. Net trade contributed 0.43 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2021. Net trade deducted 1.24 percentage points in IIIQ2021.
France. France’s exports increased 6.9 percent in Jan 2022 while imports decreased 0.6 percent. France’s exports increased 20.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2022 and imports increased 25.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2012. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points in IIQ2012. Net traded contributed 0.0 percentage points to France’s GDP in IIIQ2012 and 0.0 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points to France’s GDP growth in IQ2013 and added 0.1 percentage points in IIQ2013, deducting 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2013. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points to France’s GDP in IVQ2013 and deducted 0.1 percentage points in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IIQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.5 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015 and contributed 0.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.5 percentage points to GDP in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.4 percentage points from GDP in IIIQ2016 and contributed 0.0 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP in IQ2017 and added 1.0 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade added 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP in IVQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP in IQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ219. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points in IQ2020. Net trade deducted 1.8 percentage points in IIQ2020. Net trade contributed 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2020. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points in IVQ2020. Net trade deducted 0.4 percentage points in IQ2021. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points in IIQ2021. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points in IIIQ2021. Net trade deducted 1.1 percentage points in IVQ2021.
United States. US exports decreased 1.7 percent in Jan 2022 and goods exports increased 15.2 percent in Jan 2022 relative to a year earlier. Imports increased 1.2 percent in Jan 2022 and goods imports increased 21.1 percent in Jan-Dec 2021 relative to a year earlier. Net traded added 0.37 percentage points to GDP in IQ2012. Net trade added 0.31 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2012 and deducted 0.02 percentage points in IIIQ2012, adding 0.68 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade added 0.30 percentage points to US GDP growth in IQ2013 and deducted 0.49 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded subtracted 0.01 percentage points from US GDP growth in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 1.04 percentage points to US GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 1.36 percentage points from US GDP growth in IQ2014 and deducted 0.29 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade added 0.12 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2014. Net trade deducted 1.24 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 1.34 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.32 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.95 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.20 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.06 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.30 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade added 0.33 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade deducted 1.19 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2016. Net trade added 0.31 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.42 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2017. Net trade added 0.36 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.37 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade subtracted 0.16 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018. Net trade added 0.40 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.66 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018, deducting 0.51 percentage points in IVQ2018. Net trade added 0.39 percentage points in IQ2019, deducting 0.50 percentage points in IIQ2019. Net trade added 0.07 percentage points in IIIQ2019. Net trade added 1.43 percentage points in IVQ2019, deducting 0.05 percentage points in IQ2020. Net trade added 1.53 percentage points in IIQ2020, deducting 3.25 percentage points in IIIQ2020. Net trade deducted 1.65 percentage points in IVQ2020. Net trade deducted 1.56 percentage points in IQ2021. Net trade deducted 0.18 percentage points in IIQ2021. Net trade deducted 1.16 percentage points from GDP in IIIQ2021. Net trade deducted 0.07 percentage points to GDP in IVQ2021.

Industrial production increased 0.5 percent in Feb 2022 and increased 1.4 percent in Jan 2022 after decreasing 0.4 percent in Dec 2021, with all data seasonally adjusted, as shown in Table I-1. Manufacturing decreased 22.4 percent from the peak in Jun 2007 to the trough in Apr 2009 and increased 13.5 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Dec 2019. Manufacturing increased 10.9 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Dec 2020. Manufacturing in Dec 2020 is lower by 13.9 percent relative to the peak in Jun 2007. Manufacturing increased 14.9 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Dec 2021. Manufacturing in Dec 2021 is 10.8 percent below the peak in Jun 2007. Manufacturing increased 17.8 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Feb 2022. Manufacturing in Feb 2022 is 8.5 percent below the peak in Apr 2009. US economic growth has been at only 2.2 percent on average in the cyclical expansion in the 50 quarters from IIIQ2009 to IVQ2021 and in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021). Boskin (2010Sep) measures that the US economy grew at 6.2 percent in the first four quarters and 4.5 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the second quarter of 1975; and at 7.7 percent in the first four quarters and 5.8 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the first quarter of 1983 (Professor Michael J. Boskin, Summer of Discontent, Wall Street Journal, Sep 2, 201 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882304575465462926649950.html). There are new calculations using the revision of US GDP and personal income data since 1929 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) and the second estimate of GDP for IVQ2021 (https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2022-02/gdp4q21_2nd.pdf). The average of 7.7 percent in the first four quarters of major cyclical expansions is in contrast with the rate of growth in the first four quarters of the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010 of only 2.9 percent obtained by dividing GDP of $15,605.6 billion in IIQ2010 by GDP of $15,161.8 billion in IIQ2009 {[($15,605.6/$15,161.8) -1]100 = 2.9%], or accumulating the quarter on quarter growth rates (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2022/02/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-of-70-percent-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2022/01/fomc-states-with-inflation-well-above-2.html). The expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1986 was at the average annual growth rate of 5.7 percent, 5.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1986, 5.1 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1986, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1988, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1989, 4.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1989, 4.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1989, 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1989, 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1990, 4.4 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1990, 4.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1990, 4.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1990, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1992, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1994, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1994, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1994, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1994, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1995, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1995 and at 7.9 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2022/02/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-of-70-percent-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2022/01/fomc-states-with-inflation-well-above-2.html). The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dates a contraction of the US from IQ1990 (Jul) to IQ1991 (Mar) (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html). The expansion lasted until another contraction beginning in IQ2001 (Mar). US GDP contracted 1.4 percent from the pre-recession peak of $9404.5 billion of chained 2012 dollars in IIIQ1990 to the trough of $9275.3 billion in IQ1991 (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IVQ2021 and in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021) would have accumulated to 51.3 percent. GDP in IVQ2021 would be $23,849.2 billion (in constant dollars of 2012) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $4038.6 billion than actual $19,810.6 billion. There are more than four trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 23.2 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 13.3 percent of the effective labor force with the largest part originating in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2022/03/increase-in-feb-2022-of-nonfarm-payroll.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2022/02/increase-in-jan-2022-of-nonfarm-payroll.html). Unemployment is decreasing while employment is increasing in initial adjustment of the lockdown of economic activity in the global recession resulting from the COVID-19 event (https://www.bls.gov/covid19/effects-of-covid-19-pandemic-and-response-on-the-employment-situation-news-release.htm). US GDP in IVQ2021 is 16.9 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $15,767.1 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $19,810.6 billion in IVQ2021 or 25.6 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.6 percent. Professor John H. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. Cochrane (2016May02) measures GDP growth in the US at average 3.5 percent per year from 1950 to 2000 and only at 1.76 percent per year from 2000 to 2015 with only at 2.0 percent annual equivalent in the current expansion. Cochrane (2016May02) proposes drastic changes in regulation and legal obstacles to private economic activity. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 3.0 percent per year from Feb 1919 to Feb 2022. Growth at 3.0 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 106.8161 in Dec 2007 to 162.3669 in Feb 2022. The actual index NSA in Feb 2022 is 101.4579 which is 37.5 percent below trend. The underperformance of manufacturing in Mar-Nov 2020 originates partly in the earlier global recession augmented by the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021). Manufacturing grew at the average annual rate of 3.3 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2006. Growth at 3.3 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 106.8161 in Dec 2007 to 169.1965 in Feb 2022. The actual index NSA in Feb 2022 is 101.4579, which is 40.0 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 1.8 percent between Dec 1986 and Feb 2022. Using trend growth of 1.8 percent per year, the index would increase to 137.5298 in Feb 2022. The output of manufacturing at 101.4579 in Feb 2022 is 26.2 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Using the NAICS (North American Industry Classification System), manufacturing output fell from the high of 108.5167 in Jul 2007 to the low of 84.7321 in May 2009 or 21.9 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased from 84.7321 in Apr 2009 to 102.5311 in Feb 2022 or 21.0 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased at the annual equivalent rate of 3.5 percent from Dec 1986 to Dec 2006. Growth at 3.5 percent would increase the NAICS manufacturing output index from 104.6868 in Dec 2007 to 170.4304 in Feb 2022. The NAICS index at 102.5311 in Feb 2021 is 39.8 percent below trend. The NAICS manufacturing output index grew at 1.7 percent annual equivalent from Dec 1999 to Dec 2006. Growth at 1.7 percent would raise the NAICS manufacturing output index from 104.6868 in Dec 2007 to 132.9246 in Feb 2022. The NAICS index at 102.5311 in Feb 2022 is 22.9 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Table I-13 provides national income by industry without capital consumption adjustment (WCCA). “Private industries” or economic activities have share of 87.8 percent in IIIQ2021. Most of US national income is in the form of services. In Jan 2022, there were 147.525 million nonfarm jobs NSA in the US, according to estimates of the establishment survey of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm Table B-1). Total private jobs of 126.583 million NSA in Feb 2022 accounted for 85.0 percent of total nonfarm jobs of 148.967 million, of which 12.568 million, or 9.9 percent of total private jobs and 8.4 percent of total nonfarm jobs, were in manufacturing. Private service-providing jobs were 106.131 million NSA in Feb 2022, or 71.2 percent of total nonfarm jobs and 83.8 percent of total private-sector jobs. Manufacturing has share of 9.7 percent in US national income in IIIQ2021 and durable goods 5.5 percent, as shown in Table I-13. Most income in the US originates in services. Subsidies and similar measures designed to increase manufacturing jobs will not increase economic growth and employment and may actually reduce growth by diverting resources away from currently employment-creating activities because of the drain of taxation.

Table V-4, Growth of Trade and Contributions of Net Trade to GDP Growth, ∆% and % Points

	Exports M ∆%	Exports 12 M ∆%	Imports M ∆%	Imports 12 M ∆%
USA	-1.7 Jan SA	15.2 Jan NSA	1.2 Jan SA	21.1 Jan NSA
Japan		Feb 2022 19.1 Jan 2022 9.6 Dec 2021 17.5 Nov 2021 20.5 Oct 2021 9.4 Sep 2021 13.0 Aug 2021 26.2 Jul 2021 37.0 Jun 2021 48.6 May 2021 49.6 Apr 2021 38.0 Mar 2021 16.1 Feb 2021 -4.5 Jan 2021 6.4 Dec 2020 2.0 Nov 2020 -4.2 Oct 2020 -0.2 Sep 2020 -4.9 Aug 2020 -14.8 Jul 2020 -19.2 Jun 2020 -26.2 May 2020 -28.3 Apr 2020 -21.9 Mar 2020 -11.7 Feb 2020 -1.0 Jan 2020 -2.6 Dec 2019 -6.3 Nov 2019 -7.9 Oct 2019 -9.2 Sep 2019 -5.2 Aug 2019 -8.2 Jul 2019 -1.6 Jun 2019 -6.7 May 2019 -7.8 Apr 2019 -2.4 Mar 2019 -2.4 Feb 2019 -1.2 Jan 2019 -8.4 Dec 2018 -3.8 Nov 2018 0.1 Oct 2018 8.2 Sep 2018 -1.2 Aug 2018 6.6 Jul 2018 3.9 Jun 2018 6.7 May 2018 8.1 Apr 2018 7.8 Mar 2018 2.1 Feb 2018 1.8 Jan 2018 12.2 Dec 2017 9.3 Nov 2017 16.2 Oct 2017 14.0 Sep 2017 14.1 Aug 2017 18.1 Jul 2017 13.4 Jun 2017 9.7 May 2017 14.9 Apr 2017 7.5 Mar 2017 12.0 Feb 2017 11.3 Jan 2017 1.3 Dec 2016 5.4 Nov 2016 -0.4 Oct 2016 -10.3 Sep 2016 -6.9 Aug 2016 9.6 Jul 2016 -14.0 Jun 2016 -7.8 May 2016 -11.3 Apr 2016 -10.1 Mar 2016 -6.8 Feb 2016 -4.0 Jan 2016 -12.9 Dec 2015 -8.0 Nov 2015 -3.3 Oct 2015 -2.1 Sep 2015 0.6 Aug 3.1 Jul 2015 7.6 Jun 2015 9.5 May 2015 2.4 Apr 8.0 Mar 8.5 Feb 2.4 Jan 17.0 Dec 12.9 Nov 4.9 Oct 9.6 Sep 6.9 Aug -1.3 Jul 3.9 Jun -2.0 May 2014 -2.7 Apr 2014 5.1 Mar 2014 1.8 Feb 2014 9.5 Jan 2014 9.5 Dec 2013 15.3 Nov 2013 18.4 Oct 2013 18.6 Sep 2013 11.5 Aug 2013 14.7 Jul 2013 12.2 Jun 2013 7.4 May 2013 10.1 Apr 2013 3.8 Mar 2013 1.1 Feb 2013 -2.9 Jan 2013 6.4 Dec -5.8 Nov -4.1 Oct -6.5 Sep -10.3 Aug -5.8 Jul -8.1		Feb 2022 34.0 Jan 2022 39.6 Dec 2021 41.1 Nov 2021 43.8 Oct 2021 26.7 Sep 2021 38.6 Aug 2021 44.7 Jul 2021 28.5 Jun 2021 32.7 May 2021 27.9 Apr 2021 12.8 Mar 2021 5.8 Feb 2021 11.8 Jan 2021 -9.5 Dec 2020 -11.6 Nov 2020 -11.1 Oct 2020 -13.3 Sep 2020 -17.2 Aug 2020 -20.8 Jul 2020 -22.3 Jun 2020 -14.4 May 2020 -26.2 Apr 2020 -7.2 Mar 2020 -5.0 Feb 2020 -14.0 Jan 2020 -3.6 Dec 2019 -4.9 Nov 2019 -15.7 Oct 2019 -14.8 Sep 2019 -1.5 Aug 2019 -12.0 Jul 2019 -1.2 Jun 2019 -5.2 May 2019 -1.5 Apr 2019 6.4 Mar 2019 1.1 Feb 2019 -6.7 Jan 2019 -0.6 Dec 2018 1.9 Nov 2018 12.5 Oct 2018 19.9 Sep 2018 7.0 Aug 2018 15.4 Jul 2018 14.6 Jun 2018 2.5 May 2018 14.0 Apr 2018 5.9 Mar 2018 -0.6 Feb 2018 16.6 Jan 2018 7.9 Dec 2017 14.9 Nov 2017 17.2 Oct 2017 18.9 Sep 2017 12.0 Aug 2017 15.2 Jul 2017 16.3 Jun 2017 15.5 May 2017 17.8 Apr 2017 15.1 Mar 2017 15.8 Feb 2017 1.2 Jan 2017 8.5 Dec 2016 -2.6 Nov 2016 -8.8 Oct 2016 -16.5 Sep 2016 -16.3 Aug 2016 -17.3 Jul 2016 -24.7 Jun 2016 -18.8 May 2016 -13.8 Apr 2016 -23.3 Mar 2016 -14.9 Feb 2016 -14.2 Jan 2016 -18.0 Dec 2015 -18.0 Nov 2015 -10.2 Oct 2015 -13.4 Sep 2015 -11.1 Aug -3.1 Jul 2015 -3.2 Jun 2015 -2.9 May 2015 -8.7 Apr -4.2 Mar -14.5 Feb -3.6 Jan -9.0 Dec 1.9 Nov -1.7 Oct 2.7 Sep 6.2 Aug -1.5 Jul 2.3 Jun 8.4 May 2014 -3.6 Apr 2013 3.4 Mar 2014 18.1 Feb 2014 9.0 Jan 2014 25.0 Dec 2013 24.7 Nov 2013 21.1 Oct 2013 26.1 Sep 2013 16.5 Aug 2013 16.0 Jul 2013 19.6 Jun 2013 11.8 May 2013 10.0 Apr 2013 9.4 Mar 2013 5.5 Feb 2013 7.3 Jan 2013 7.3 Dec 1.9 Nov 0.8 Oct -1.6 Sep 4.1 Aug -5.4 Jul 2.1
China	Jan-Dec 3.6 Jan-Dec 0.5 Jan-Dec 9.9 Jan-Dec 2017 7.9 Jan-Dec 2016 -7.7 Jan-Dec 2015 -2.8	2022 Jan-Feb 16.3 2021 Dec 20.9 Nov 22.0 Oct 27.1 Sep 28.1 Aug 25.6 Jul 19.3 Jun 33.2 May 27.9 Apr 32.3 Mar 30.6 Jan-Feb 60.6 2020 Dec 18.1 Nov 21.1 Oct 11.4 Sep 9.9 Aug 9.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 0.5 May -3.3 Apr 8.2 Mar -2.9 Jan-Feb -17.2 2019 Dec 7.6 Nov -1.1 Oct -0.9 Sep -3.2 Aug -1.0 Jul 3.3 Jun -1.3 May 1.1 Apr -2.7 Mar 14.2 Feb -20.7 Jan 9.3 2018 Dec -4.4 Nov 5.4 Oct 15.6 Sep 14.5 Aug 9.8 Jul 12.2 Jun 11.3 May 12.6 Apr 12.9 Mar -2.7 Feb 44.5 Jan 11.1 2017 Dec 10.9 Nov 12.3 Oct 6.9 Sep 8.1 Aug 5.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 11.3 May 8.7 Apr 8.0 Mar 16.4 Feb -1.3 Jan 7.9 2016 Dec 3.1 Nov 0.1 Oct -7.3 Sep -10.0 Aug -2.8 Jul -4.4 Jun -4.8 May -4.1 Apr -1.8 Mar 11.5 Feb -25.4 Jan -11.2 2015 -1.4 Dec -6.8 Nov -6.9 Oct -3.7 Sep -5.5 Aug -8.3 Jul 2.8 Jun -2.5 May -6.4 Apr -15.0 Mar 48.3 Feb -3.3 Jan 2014 9.7 Dec 4.7 Nov 11.6 Oct 15.3 Sep 9.4 Aug 14.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 7.0 May 0.9 Apr -6.6 Mar -18.1 Feb 10.6 Jan 2013 4.3 Dec 12.7 Nov 5.6 Oct -0.3 Sep 7.2 Aug 5.1 Jul -3.1 Jun 1.0 May 14.7 Apr 10.0 Mar 21.8 Feb 25.0 Jan	Jan-Dec -1.1 Jan-Dec -2.8 Jan-Dec 15.8 Jan-Dec 2017 15.9 Jan-Dec 2016 -5.5 Jan-Dec 2015 -14.1	2022 Jan-Feb 15.5 2021 Dec 19.5 Nov 31.7 Oct 20.6 Sep 17.6 Aug 33.1 Jul 28.1 Jun 36.7 May 51.1 Apr 43.1 Mar 38.1 Jan-Feb 22.2 2020 Dec 6.5 Nov 4.5 Oct 4.7 Sep 13.2 Aug -2.1 Jul 1.4 Jun 2.7 May -16.7 Apr -10.2 Mar -1.1 Jan-Feb -4.0 2019 Dec 16.3 Nov 0.3 Oct -6.4 Sep -8.5 Aug -5.6 Jul -5.3 Jun -7.3 May -8.5 Apr 4.0 Mar -7.6 Feb -5.2 Jan -1.5 2018 Dec -7.6 Nov 3.0 Oct 21.4 Sep 14.3 Aug 20.0 Jul 27.3 Jun 14.1 May 26.0 Apr 21.5 Mar 14.4 Feb 6.3 Jan 36.9 2017 Dec 4.5 Nov 17.7 Oct 17.2 Sep 18.7 Aug 13.3 Jul 11.0 Jun 17.2 May 14.8 Apr 11.9 Mar 20.3 Feb 38.1 Jan 16.7 2016 Dec -7.7 Nov 6.7 Oct -1.4 Sep -1.9 Aug 1.5 Jul -12.5 Jun -2.8 May -0.4 Apr -10.6 Mar -7.6 Feb -13.8 Jan -18.8 2015 -7.6 Dec -8.7 Nov -18.8 Oct -20.4 Sep -13.8 Aug -8.1 Jul -6.1 Jun -17.6 May -12.7 Mar -20.5 Feb -19.9 Jan 2014 -2.4 Dec -6.7 Nov 4.6 Oct 7.0 Sep -2.4 Aug -1.6 Jul 5.5 Jun -1.6 May -0.8 Apr -11.3 Mar 10.1 Feb 10.0 Jan 2013 8.3 Dec 5.3 Nov 7.6 Oct 7.4 Sep 7.0 Aug 10.9 Jul -0.7 Jun -0.3 May 16.8 Apr 14.1 Mar -15.2 Feb 28.8 Jan
Euro Area	14.1 12-M Dec 2021	36.7 Jan-Dec 2021	14.1 12-M Dec 2021	21.4 Jan-Dec 2021
Germany	-2.8 Jan CSA	7.5 Jan	-4.2 Jan CSA	22.1 Jan
France Jan	6.9	20.4	-0.6	25.9
Italy Dec	-1.1	16.2	7.5	37.2
UK Dec	1.5	2.3	0.9	7.5
Net Trade % Points GDP Growth	Points
USA	IVQ2021 -0.07 IIIQ2021 -1.26 IIQ2021 -0.18 IQ2021 -1.56 IVQ2020 -1.65 IIIQ2020 -3.25 IIQ2020 1.53 IQ2020 -0.05 IVQ2019 1.43 IIIQ2019 0.07 IIQ2019 -0.50 IQ2019 0.39 IVQ 2018 -0.51 IIIQ2018 -1.66 IIQ2018 0.40 IQ2018 -0.16 IVQ2017 -0.37 IIIQ2017 0.36 IIQ2017 -0.42 IQ2017 0.31 IVQ2016 -1.19 IIIQ2016 0.33 IIQ2016 0.30 IQ2016 -0.06 IVQ2015 -0.20 IIIQ2015 -0.95 IIQ2015 -0.32 IQ2015 -1.34 IVQ2014 -1.24 IIIQ2014 0.12 IIQ2014 -0.29 IQ2014 -1.36 IVQ2013 1.04 IIIQ2013 -0.01 IIQ2013 -0.49 IQ2013 0.30 IVQ2012 +0.68 IIIQ2012 -0.02 IIQ2012 0.31 IQ2012 0.37
Japan	0.7 IQ2012 -1.9 IIQ2012 -1.9 IIIQ2012 -0.3 IVQ2012 1.4 IQ2013 -0.2 IIQ2013 -1.3 IIIQ2013 -2.1 IVQ2013 -1.0 IQ2014 4.2 IIQ2014 -0.2 IIIQ2014 1.8 IVQ2014 0.4 IQ2015 -0.7 IIQ2015 -0.4 IIIQ2015 -0.2 IVQ2015 1.4 IQ2016 0.4 IIQ2016 1.1 IIIQ2016 0.9 IVQ2016 0.7 IQ2017 -0.7 IIQ2017 1.9 IIIQ2017 -0.5 IVQ2017 0.4 IQ2018 0.4 IIQ2018 -0.9 IIIQ2018 -2.4 IVQ2018 1.2 IQ2019 -0.6 IIQ2019 -1.5 IIIQ2019 1.3 IVQ2019 -0.7 IQ2020 -9.8 IIQ2020 11.2 IIIQ2020 3.1 IVQ2020 -0.4 IQ2021 -0.3 IIQ2021 0.4 IIIQ2021 0.9 IVQ2021
Germany	IQ2012 0.8 IIQ2012 0.3 IIIQ2012 0.4 IVQ2012 -0.5 IQ2013 -0.3 IIQ2013 -0.3 IIIQ2013 0.0 IVQ2013 0.9 IQ2014 -0.1 IIQ2014 -0.3 IIIQ2014 0.7 IVQ2014 0.1 IQ2015 -0.4 IIQ2015 0.6 IIIQ2015 -0.4 IVQ2015 -0.6 IQ2016 -0.9 IIQ2016 0.0 IIIQ2016 -0.6 IVQ2016 -0.9 IQ2017 1.1 IIQ2017 -1.0 IIIQ2017 0.2 IVQ2017 0.6 IQ2018 0.2 IIQ2018 0.6 IIIQ2018 -1.3 IVQ2018 -1.4 IQ2019 -1.1 IIQ2019 -1.6 IIIQ2019 0.3 IVQ2019 -0.3 IQ2020 -1.2 IIQ2020 -3.3 IIIQ2020 -0.1 IVQ2020 1.2 IQ2021 0.9 IIQ2021 3.3 IIIQ2021 -0.9
France	-0.1 IQ2012 0.1 IIQ2012 0.0 IIIQ2012 0.0 IVQ2012 0.0 IQ2013 0.1 IIQ2013 -0.4 IIIQ2013 0.0 IVQ2013 -0.1 IQ2014 -0.3 IIQ2014 -0.2 IIIQ2014 0.1 IVQ2014 -0.2 IQ2015 0.4 IIQ2015 -0.5 IIIQ2015 -0.6 IVQ2015 0.0 IQ2016 0.5 IIQ2016 -0.4 IIIQ2016 0.0 IVQ2016 -0.7 IQ2017 1.0 IIQ2017 -0.2 IIIQ2017 0.3 IVQ2017 0.0 IQ2018 -0.1 IIQ2018 0.4 IIIQ2018 0.1 IVQ2018 -0.2 IQ2019 -0.2 IIQ2019 -0.2 IIIQ2019 -0.1 IVQ2019 -0.1 IQ2020 -1.8 IIQ2020 0.6 IIIQ2020 0.8 IVQ2020 -0.4 IQ2021 0.0 IIQ2021 0.2 IIIQ2021 -0.2 IVQ2021 -1.1
UK	0.7 IIQ2013 -1.7 IIIQ2013 0.1 IVQ2013 0.8 IQ2014 0.3 IIQ2014 -0.7 IIIQ2014 0.0 IVQ2014 -0.4 IQ2015 1.1 IIQ2015 -0.4 IIIQ2015 -0.2 IVQ2015 -0.1 IQ2016 0.1 IIQ2016 -1.8 IIIQ2016 1.7 IVQ2016 0.33 IQ2017 0.01 IIQ2017
	0.11
	IIIQ2017 -0.28 IVQ2017 0.42 IQ2018 -0.48 IIQ2018 0.45 IIIQ2018 -1.29 IVQ2018 -2.85 IQ2019 2.86 IIQ2019 1.37 IIIQ2019 2.26 IVQ2019 -2.61 IQ2020 3.22 IIQ2020 -4.04 IIIQ2020 -2.03 IVQ2020 1.19 IQ2021 0.43 IIQ2021 -1.24 IIIQ2021

Sources: Country Statistical Agencies

Table VA-1 provides the value of total sales of US business (manufacturers, retailers and merchant wholesalers) and monthly and 12-month percentage changes. Sales of manufacturers increased 1.2 percent in Jan and increased 0.7 percent in Dec, increasing 11.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2022 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021). Sales of retailers increased 5.7 percent in Jan and decreased 3.0 percent in Dec, increasing 12.1 percent in 12 months. Sales of merchant wholesalers increased 4.0 percent in Jan, increasing 0.8 percent in Dec and increasing 23.0 percent in 12 months. Total business sales increased 3.7 percent in Jan and decreased 0.5 percent in Dec, increasing 15.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2022.

Table VA-1, US, Percentage Changes for Sales of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers

	Jan 22/Dec 21 ∆% SA	Jan 2022 Millions of Dollars NSA	Dec 21/ Nov 21 ∆% SA	Jan 22/Jan 21 ∆% NSA
Total Business	3.7	1,620,110	-0.5	15.8
Manufacturers	1.2	494,867	0.7	11.6
Retailers	5.7	520,757	-3.0	12.1
Merchant Wholesalers	4.0	604,486	0.8	23.0

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/mtis/index.html

IMPORTANT NOTE: Charts VA-1 through VA-4A cannot be updated because of the discontinuance of support of the Adobe Flash Player (https://www.adobe.com/products/flashplayer/end-of-life.html). There are following updated Fusion charts.

Chart VA-1 of the US Census Bureau provides total US sales of manufacturing, retailers and wholesalers seasonally adjusted (SA) in millions of dollars. The series with adjustment evens fluctuations following seasonal patterns. There is sharp recovery from the global recession in a robust trend, which is mixture of price and quantity effects because data are not adjusted for price changes. There is stability in the final segment with subdued prices with data not adjusted for price changes. There is recovery in the recent segment with occasional vacillation. The data point in Apr 2020 shows sharp contraction followed by increase in May-Oct 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021).

Chart VA-1, US, Total Business Sales of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, SA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 1992-Oct 2020

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/mtis/index.html

Chart VA-1F, US, Total Business Sales of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, SA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 1992-Jan 2022

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/mtis/index.html

Chart VA-1A shows of the US Census Bureau provides total US sales of manufacturing, retailers and wholesalers seasonally adjusted (SA) in millions of dollars from Jan 2019 to Nov 2020, showing the deep contraction in Mar-Apr 2020 followed by increase in May-Oct in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021).

Chart VA-1A, US, Total Business Sales of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, SA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 2019-Oct 2020

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/mtis/index.html

Chart VA-1FB, US, Total Business Sales of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, SA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 2019-Jan 2022

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/mtis/index.html

Chart VA-2 of the US Census Bureau provides total US sales of manufacturing, retailers and wholesalers not seasonally adjusted (NSA) in millions of dollars from Jan 1992 to Oct 2020. The series without seasonal adjustment shows sharp jagged behavior because of monthly fluctuations following seasonal patterns. There is sharp recovery from the global recession in a robust trend, which is mixture of price and quantity effects because data are not adjusted for price changes. There is stability in the final segment with monthly marginal weakness in data without adjustment for price changes with following recovery. There is sharp contraction in Mar-Apr 2020 followed by increase in May-Nov 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021).

Chart VA-2, US, Total Business Sales of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, NSA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 1992-Oct 2020

Source: US Census Bureau

Chart VA-2F, US, Total Business Sales of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, NSA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 1992-Jan 2022

Source: US Census Bureau

Chart VA-2A of the US Census Bureau provides total US sales of manufacturing, retailers and wholesalers not seasonally adjusted (NSA) in millions of dollars from Jan 2019 to Oct 2020. There is sharp contraction in the data point in Apr 2020 followed by increase in May-Oct in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021).

Chart VA-2A, US, Total Business Sales of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, NSA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 2019-Oct 2020

Source: US Census Bureau

Chart VA-2AFB, US, Total Business Sales of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, NSA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 2019-Jan 2022

Source: US Census Bureau

Businesses added cautiously to inventories to replenish stocks. Retailers’ inventories increased 2.0 percent in Nov 2021 and increased 0.3 percent in

Oct with increase of 1.1 percent in 12 months, as shown in Table VA-2. Total business increased inventories 1.1 percent in Jan after increasing 2.4 percent in Dec and increasing 11.4 percent in 12 months. Inventories sales/ratios of total business stabilized at a level close to 1.30 under careful management to avoid costs and risks, moving to 1.29 in Dec 2021. Inventory/sales ratios of manufacturers and retailers are higher than for merchant wholesalers. There is stability in inventory/sales ratios in individual months and relative to a year earlier with stability at the margin.

Table VA-2, US, Percentage Changes for Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers and Inventory/Sales Ratios

Inventory Change	Jan 22 Millions of Dollars NSA	Jan 22/Dec 21 ∆% SA	Dec 21/Nov 2021 SA	Jan 22/Jan 21 ∆% NSA
Total Business	2,245,111	1.1	2.4	11.4
Manufacturers	778,884	0.7	0.4	9.9
Retailers	650,144	2.0	4.7	6.1
Merchant Wholesalers	816,083	0.8	2.6	17.8
Inventory/ Sales Ratio	Jan 22 Millions of Dollars NSA	Jan 2022 SA	Dec 2021 SA	Jan 2021 SA
Total Business	2,245,111	1.25	1.29	1.30
Manufacturers	778,884	1.45	1.46	1.47
Retailers	650,144	1.13	1.17	1.20
Merchant Wholesalers	816,083	1.20	1.24	1.25

US Census Bureau

https://www.census.gov/mtis/img/mtisbrf.gif

Inventories follow business cycles. When recession hits sales inventories pile up, declining with expansion of the economy. In a fascinating classic opus, Lloyd Meltzer (1941, 129) concludes:

“The dynamic sequences (i) through (6) were intended to show what types of behavior are possible for a system containing a sales output lag. The following conclusions seem to be the most important:

(i) An economy in which business men attempt to recoup inventory losses will always undergo cyclical fluctuations when equilibrium is disturbed, provided the economy is stable.

This is the pure inventory cycle.

(2) The assumption of stability imposes severe limitations upon the possible size of the marginal propensity to consume, particularly if the coefficient of expectation is positive.

(3) The inventory accelerator is a more powerful de-stabilizer than the ordinary acceleration principle. The difference in stability conditions is due to the fact that the former allows for replacement demand whereas the usual analytical formulation of the latter does not. Thus, for inventories, replacement demand acts as a de-stabilizer. Whether it does so for all types of capital goods is a moot question, but I believe cases may occur in which it does not.

(4) Investment for inventory purposes cannot alter the equilibrium of income, which depends only upon the propensity to consume and the amount of non-induced investment.

(5) The apparent instability of a system containing both an accelerator and a coefficient of expectation makes further investigation of possible stabilizers highly desirable.”

Chart VA-5 shows the increase in the inventory/sales ratios during the recession of 2007-2009. The inventory/sales ratio fell during the expansions. The inventory/sales ratio declined to a trough in 2011, climbed and then stabilized at current levels in 2012, 2013 and 2015 with increase into 2015-2016 and then decreasing at the margin from 2016 into 2017-2019. Inventory/sales ratios increase sharply followed by deep decline in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021). There is renewed decrease in 2021 with marginal recovery in a downward trend.

Chart VA-5, Total Business Inventories/Sales Ratios 2012 to 2021

IMPORTANT NOTE: Charts VA-3 through VA-4A cannot be updated because of the discontinuance of support of the Adobe Flash Player (https://www.adobe.com/products/flashplayer/end-of-life.html). There are following updated Fusion charts.

Chart VA-3 of the US Census Bureau provides total business inventories of manufacturers, retailers and merchant wholesalers seasonally adjusted (SA) in millions of dollars from Jan 1992 to Oct 2020. The impact of the two recessions of 2001 and IVQ2007 to IIQ2009 is evident in the form of sharp reductions in inventories. Inventories have surpassed the peak before the global recession. Data are not adjusted for price changes. Inventories decline in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021).

Chart VA-3, US, Total Business Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, SA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 1992-Nov 2020

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/mtis/index.html

Chart VA-3F, US, Total Business Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, SA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 1992-Jan 2022

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/mtis/index.html

Chart VA-3A of the US Census Bureau provides total business inventories of manufacturers, retailers and merchant wholesalers seasonally adjusted (SA) in millions of dollars from Jan 2019 to Oct 2020. Inventories sink in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021).

Chart VA-3A, US, Total Business Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, SA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 2019-Oct 2020

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/mtis/index.html

Chart VA-3AFB, US, Total Business Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, SA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 2019-Jan 2022

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/mtis/index.html

Chart VA-4 provides total business inventories of manufacturers, retailers and merchant wholesalers not seasonally adjusted (NSA) from Jan 1992 to Oct 2020 in millions of dollars. The recessions of 2001 and IVQ2007 to IIQ2009 are evident in the form of sharp reductions of inventories. There is sharp upward trend of inventory accumulation after both recessions. Total business inventories are higher than in the peak before the global recession. Inventories decrease in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021).

Chart VA-4, US, Total Business Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, NSA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 1992-Oct 2020

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/mtis/index.html

Chart VA-4F, US, Total Business Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, NSA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 1992-Jan 2022

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/mtis/index.html

Chart VA-4A provides total business inventories of manufacturers, retailers and merchant wholesalers not seasonally adjusted (SA) from Jan 1992 to Oct 2020 in millions of dollars. There is sharp contraction in Mar-Jun 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021).

Chart VA-4A, US, Total Business Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, NSA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 2019-Oct 2020

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/mtis/index.html

Chart VA-4AFB, US, Total Business Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, NSA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 2019-Jan 2022

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/mtis/index.html

Inventories follow business cycles. When recession hits sales inventories pile up, declining with expansion of the economy. In a fascinating classic opus, Lloyd Meltzer (1941, 129) concludes:

“The dynamic sequences (i) through (6) were intended to show what types of behavior are possible for a system containing a sales output lag. The following conclusions seem to be the most important:

(i) An economy in which business men attempt to recoup inventory losses will always undergo cyclical fluctuations when equilibrium is disturbed, provided the economy is stable.

This is the pure inventory cycle.

(2) The assumption of stability imposes severe limitations upon the possible size of the marginal propensity to consume, particularly if the coefficient of expectation is positive.

(4) Investment for inventory purposes cannot alter the equilibrium of income, which depends only upon the propensity to consume and the amount of non-induced investment.

(5) The apparent instability of a system containing both an accelerator and a coefficient of expectation makes further investigation of possible stabilizers highly desirable.”

Chart VA-5, Total Business Inventories/Sales Ratios 2012 to 2021

https://www.census.gov/mtis/img/mtisbrf.gif

Sales of retail and food services increased 0.3 percent in Feb 2021, after increasing 4.9 percent in Jan 2022 seasonally adjusted (SA), in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021), increasing 15.5 percent in Jan-Feb 2022 relative to Jan-Feb 2021 not seasonally adjusted (NSA), as shown in Table VA-3. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales increased 0.2 percent in Feb 2022, increasing 4.4 percent in Jan 2022 SA and increasing 15.5 percent NSA in Jan-Feb 2022 relative to a year earlier. Sales of motor vehicles and parts increased 0.8 percent in Feb 2022 after increasing 6.9 percent in Jan 2022 SA and increased 15.3 percent NSA in Jan-Feb 2022 relative to a year earlier. Gasoline station sales increased 5.3 percent SA in Feb 2022 after decreasing 1.7 percent in Jan 2022 in oscillating prices of gasoline that are moderating, increasing 34.9 percent in Jan-Feb 2022 relative to a year earlier.

Table VA-3, US, Percentage Change in Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, ∆%

	Feb ∆% SA	Jan ∆% SA	Jan 2022 Million Dollars NSA	Jan-Feb 2022 from Jan-Feb 2021 ∆% NSA
Retail and Food Services	0.3	4.9	1,163,719	15.5
Excluding Motor Vehicles and Parts	0.2	4.4	925,052	15.5
Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers	0.8	6.9	238,667	15.3
Retail	0.0	5.7	1,030,724	14.0
Building Materials	0.9	2.7	68,151	12.0
Food and Beverage	-0.5	1.0	147,915	7.5
Grocery	-0.8	0.9	133,764	8.0
Health & Personal Care Stores	-1.8	0.2	62,040	8.8
Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores	1.1	1.4	40,634	25.8
Gasoline Stations	5.3	-1.7	99,172	34.9
General Merchandise Stores	-0.2	4.5	123,670	8.6
Food Services & Drinking Places	2.5	-1.0	132,995	28.6

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

Chart VA-9 provides percentage monthly and year-on-year changes of retail and food service sales. The other charts cannot be updated because of the discontinuance of support for the Adobe Flash Players (https://www.adobe.com/products/flashplayer/end-of-life.html). There are following updated Fusion charts.

Chart VA-9, Percent Change of Retail and Food Services Sales

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

IMPORTANT NOTE: CHARTS VA-6 THROUGH VA-8A CANNOT BE UPDATED BECAUSE OF THE DISCONTINUANCE OF SUPPORT FOR ADOBE FLASH PLAYER. (https://www.adobe.com/products/flashplayer/end-of-life.html). Available updated Fusion charts follow.

Chart VA-6 provides monthly percentage changes of sales of retail and food services. There is significant monthly volatility that prevents identification of clear trends. Sales collapsed in Mar-Apr 2020, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event, with oscillating recovery in May-Dec 2020.

Chart VA-6, US, Monthly Percentage Change of Retail and Food Services Sales, Jan 1992-Dec 2020

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

Chart VA-6A provides monthly percentage changes of sales of retail and food services from Jan 2019 to Nov 2020.There is increase with oscillations in May-Dec 2020 after collapse in Feb-Apr 2020.

Chart VA-6A, US, Monthly Percentage Change of Retail and Food Services Sales, Jan 2019-Nov 2020

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

Chart VA-7 of the US Census Bureau provides total sales of retail trade and food services seasonally adjusted (SA) from Jan 1992 to Nov 2020 in millions of dollars. The impact on sales of the shallow recession of 2001 was much milder than the sharp contraction in the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. There is flattening in the final segment of the series followed by another increase/decrease. Sales collapsed in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Data are not adjusted for price changes. There is sharp decline in Feb-Mar 2020 with sharp recovery in May-Dec 2020.

Chart VA-7, US, Total Sales of Retail Trade and Food Services, SA, Jan 1992-Dec 2020, Millions of Dollars

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

Chart VA-7F, US, Total Sales of Retail Trade and Food Services, SA, Jan 1992-Feb 2022, Millions of Dollars

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

Chart VA-7A of the US Census Bureau provides total sales of retail trade and food services seasonally adjusted (SA) from Jan 2019 to Nov 2020 in millions of dollars. Sales jumped in May-Nov 2020 in recovery from the contraction in Feb-Mar 2020.

Chart VA-7A, US, Total Sales of Retail Trade and Food Services, SA, Jan 2019-Nov 2020, Millions of Dollars

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

Chart VA-7AFB, US, Total Sales of Retail Trade and Food Services, SA, Jan 2019-Feb 2022, Millions of Dollars

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

Chart VA-8 of the US Census Bureau provides total sales of retail trade and food services seasonally adjusted (NSA) from Jan 1992 to Nov 2020 in millions of dollars. Data are not adjusted for price changes. There is sharp contraction in Feb-Apr 2020, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event, with sharp recovery in May-Dec 2020.

Chart VA-8, US, Total Sales of Retail Trade and Food Services, NSA, Jan 1992-Nov 2020, Millions of Dollars

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

Chart VA-8F, US, Total Sales of Retail Trade and Food Services, NSA, Jan 1992-Feb 2022, Millions of Dollars

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

Chart VA-8A of the US Census Bureau provides total sales of retail trade and food services not seasonally adjusted (NSA) from Jan 2019 to Nov 2020 in millions of dollars. Data are not adjusted for price changes. There is sharp recovery in May-Dec 2020 with stability.

Chart VA-8A, US, Total Sales of Retail Trade and Food Services, NSA, Jan 2019-Nov 2020, Millions of Dollars

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

Chart VA-8FB, US, Total Sales of Retail Trade and Food Services, NSA, Jan 2019-Feb 2022, Millions of Dollars

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

Chart VA-9, Percent Change of Retail and Food Services Sales

Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

United States total public debt outstanding is $30.3 trillion and debt held by the public $23.8 trillion (https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/debt-to-the-penny). The Net International Investment Position of the United States, or foreign debt, is $16.1 trillion (https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2021-12/intinv321.pdf https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2022/01/increase-in-dec-2021-of-nonfarm-payroll.html). The United States current account deficit is 3.7 percent of GDP in IIIQ2021 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2022/01/increase-in-dec-2021-of-nonfarm-payroll.html). The Treasury deficit of the United States reached $2.8 trillion in fiscal year 2021 (https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/). Total assets of Federal Reserve Banks reached $9.0 trillion on Mar 16, 2022 and securities held outright reached $8.5 trillion (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/h41.htm#h41tab1). US GDP nominal NSA reached $24.0 trillion in IVQ2021 (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). Total Treasury interest-bearing, marketable debt held by private investors increased from $3635 billion in 2007 to $16,439 billion in Sep 2021 (Fiscal Year 2021) or increase by 352.2 percent (https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/treasury-bulletin/). Table VI-7C provides additional information required for understanding the deficit/debt situation of the United States. The table is divided into four parts: Treasury budget in the 2022 fiscal year beginning on Oct 1, 2021 and ending on Sep 30, 2022; federal fiscal data for the years from 2009 to 2019; federal fiscal data for the years from 2005 to 2008; and Treasury debt held by the public from 2005 to 2019. Receipts increased 25.8 percent in the cumulative fiscal year 2022 ending in Feb 2022 relative to the cumulative in fiscal year 2021. Individual income taxes increased 38.3 percent relative to the same fiscal period a year earlier. Outlays decreased 8.1 percent relative to a year earlier. There are also receipts, outlays, deficit and debt for fiscal years 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019. In fiscal year 2019, the deficit reached $984.4 billion or 4.6 percent of GDP. Outlays of 4,446.6 billion were 21.0 percent of GDP and receipts of $3,462.2 billion were 16.3 percent of GDP. It is quite difficult for the US to raise receipts above 18 percent of GDP. Total revenues of the US from 2009 to 2012 accumulate to $9021.2 billion, or $9.0 trillion, while expenditures or outlays accumulate to $14,104.5 billion, or $14.1 trillion, with the deficit accumulating to $5083.3 billion, or $5.1 trillion. Revenues decreased 6.5 percent from $9652.5 billion in the four years from 2005 to 2008 to $9021.2 billion in the years from 2009 to 2012. Decreasing revenues were caused by the global recession from IVQ2007 (Dec) to IIQ2009 (Jun) and by growth of only 2.2 percent on average in the cyclical expansion from IIIQ2009 to IVQ2021. In contrast, the expansion from IQ1983 to IIQ1995 was at the average annual growth rate of 3.6 percent and at 7.9 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2022/02/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-of-70-percent-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2022/01/fomc-states-with-inflation-well-above-2.html). Because of mediocre GDP growth, there are 23.2 million unemployed or underemployed in the United States for an effective unemployment/underemployment rate of 13.3 percent (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2022/03/increase-in-feb-2022-of-nonfarm-payroll.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2022/02/increase-in-jan-2022-of-nonfarm-payroll.html). Weakness of growth and employment creation is analyzed in II Collapse of United States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation (Section II and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/07/total-nonfarm-hires-move-from-4986.html). In contrast with the decline of revenue, outlays or expenditures increased 30.1 percent from $10,838.2 billion, or $10.8 trillion, in the four years from 2005 to 2008, to $14,104.5 billion, or $14.1 trillion, in the four years from 2009 to 2012. Increase in expenditures by 30.1 percent while revenue declined by 6.5 percent caused the increase in the federal deficit from $1185.8 billion in 2005-2008 to $5083.3 billion in 2009-2012. Federal revenue was 14.8 percent of GDP on average in the years from 2009 to 2012, which is well below 17.3 percent of GDP on average from 1962 to 2019. Federal outlays were 23.3 percent of GDP on average from 2009 to 2012, which is well above 20.1 percent of GDP on average from 1962 to 2019. The lower part of Table VI-7C shows that debt held by the public swelled from $5803 billion in 2008 to $13,117 billion in 2015, by $7314 billion or 126.0 percent. Debt held by the public as percent of GDP or economic activity jumped from 39.4 percent in 2008 to 79.2 percent in 2019, which is well above the average of 41.7 percent from 1962 to 2019. The United States faces tough adjustment because growth is unlikely to recover, creating limits on what can be obtained by increasing revenues, while continuing stress of social programs restricts what can be obtained by reducing expenditures. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) provides a preliminary estimate of the impact of Public Law 116-136 of Mar 27, 2020, CARES Act or Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act (https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-04/hr748.pdf). This preliminary estimate finds that the CARES Act “will increase federal deficits by about $1.8 trillion over the 2020-2030 period (https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-04/hr748.pdf).

Table VI-7C, US, Treasury Budget in Fiscal Year to Date Million Dollars

Feb 2022	Fiscal Year 2022	Fiscal Year 2021	∆%
Receipts	1,806,838	1,436,334	25.8
Outlays	2,282,422	2,482,987	-8.1
Deficit	-475,584	-1,046,654
Individual Income Tax	973,913	704,399	38.3
Corporation Income Tax	117,072	89,123	31.4
Social Insurance	415,220	390,182	6.4
	Receipts	Outlays	Deficit (-), Surplus (+)
$ Billions
Fiscal Year 2019	3,462.2	4,446.6	-984.4
% GDP	16.3	21.0	-4.6
Fiscal Year 2018	3,329.9	4,109.0	-779.1
% GDP	16.4	20.2	-3.8
Fiscal Year 2017	3,316.2	3,981.6	-665.4
% GDP	17.2	20.6	-3.5
Fiscal Year 2016	3,268.0	3,852.6	-584.7
% GDP	17.6	20.8	-3.2
Fiscal Year 2015	3,249.9	3,691.8	-442.0
% GDP	18.0	20.4	-2.4
Fiscal Year 2014	3,021.5	3,506.3	-484.8
% GDP	17.4	20.2	-2.8
Fiscal Year 2013	2,775.1	3,454.9	-679.8
% GDP	16.7	20.8	-4.1
Fiscal Year 2012	2,450.0	3,526.6	-1,076.6
% GDP	15.3	22.0	-6.7
Fiscal Year 2011	2,303.5	3,603.1	-1,299.6
% GDP	15.0	23.4	-8.4
Fiscal Year 2010	2,162.7	3,457.1	-1,294.4
% GDP	14.6	23.3	-8.7
Fiscal Year 2009	2,105.0	3,517.7	-1,412.7
% GDP	14.6	24.4	-9.8
Total 2009-2012	9,021.2	14,104.5	-5,083.3
Average % GDP 2009-2012	14.8	23.3	-8.4
Fiscal Year 2008	2,524.0	2,982.5	-458.6
% GDP	17.1	20.2	-3.1
Fiscal Year 2007	2,568.0	2,728.7	-160.7
% GDP	18.0	19.1	-1.1
Fiscal Year 2006	2,406.9	2,655.1	-248.2
% GDP	17.6	19.5	-1.8
Fiscal Year 2005	2,153.6	2,472.0	-318.3
% GDP	16.8	19.3	-2.5
Total 2005-2008	9,652.5	10,838.2	-1,185.8
Average % GDP 2005-2008	17.4	19.5	-2.1
Debt Held by the Public	Billions of Dollars	Percent of GDP
2005	4,592	35.8
2006	4,829	35.4
2007	5,035	35.2
2008	5,803	39.4
2009	7,545	52.3
2010	9,019	60.8
2011	10,128	65.8
2012	11,281	70.3
2013	11,983	72.2
2014	12,780	73.7
2015	13,117	72.5
2016	14,168	76.4
2017	14,666	76.0
2018	15,750	77.4
2019	16,803	79.2

Source: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/sm0184.aspx https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm806 CBO, The budget and economic outlook: 2018 to 2028. Washington, DC, Apr 9 https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53651

CBO, The budget and economic outlook: 2017-2027. Washington, DC, Jan 24, 2017 https://www.cbo.gov/publication/52370 CBO, An update to the budget and economic outlook: 2016 to 2026. Washington, DC, Aug 23, 2016.

https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget-economic-data#6

CBO (2012NovMBR). CBO (2011AugBEO); Office of Management and Budget 2011. Historical Tables. Budget of the US Government Fiscal Year 2011. Washington, DC: OMB; CBO. 2011JanBEO. Budget and Economic Outlook. Washington, DC, Jan. CBO. 2012AugBEO. Budget and Economic Outlook. Washington, DC, Aug 22. CBO. 2012Jan31. Historical budget data. Washington, DC, Jan 31. CBO. 2012NovCDR. Choices for deficit reduction. Washington, DC. Nov. CBO. 2013HBDFeb5. Historical budget data—February 2013 baseline projections. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Feb 5. CBO. 2013HBDFeb5. Historical budget data—February 2013 baseline projections. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Feb 5. CBO (2013Aug12). 2013AugHBD. Historical budget data—August 2013. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Aug. CBO, Historical Budget Data—February 2014, Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Feb. CBO, Historical budget data—April 2014 release. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Apr. Congressional Budget Office, August 2014 baseline: an update to the budget and economic outlook: 2014 to 2024. Washington, DC, CBO, Aug 27, 2014. CBO, Monthly budget review: summary of fiscal year 2014. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Nov 10, 2014. CBO, The budget and economic outlook: 2015 to 2025. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Jan 26, 2015.

https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget-economic-data#6

https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget_economic_data#3 https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget_economic_data#2

Risk aversion channels funds toward US long-term and short-term securities that finance the

US balance of payments and fiscal deficits benefitting from risk flight to US dollar

denominated assets. There were temporary interruptions because of fear of rising interest

rates that erode prices of US government securities because of mixed signals on monetary

policy and exit from the Fed balance sheet of seven trillion dollars of securities held

outright. On Aug 27, 2020, the Federal Open Market Committee changed its Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, including the following

(https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/review-of-monetary-policy-strategy-tools-and-communications-statement-on-longer-run-goals-monetary-policy-strategy.htm): “The Committee judges that longer-term inflation expectations that are well anchored at 2 percent foster price stability and moderate long-term interest rates and enhance the Committee's ability to promote maximum employment in the face of significant economic disturbances. In order to anchor longer-term inflation expectations at this level, the Committee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.” The new policy can affect relative exchange rates depending on relative inflation rates and country risk issues. Net foreign purchases of US long-term securities (row C in Table VA-4) weakened from $102.4 billion in Dec 2021 to $65.4 billion in Jan 2022. Foreign residents’ purchases minus sales of US long-term securities (row A in Table VA-4) in Nov 2021 of $103.4 billion weakened to $76.9 billion in Dec 2021. Net US (residents) purchases of long-term foreign securities (row B in Table VA-4) weakened from $76.9 billion in Dec 2021 to $53.9 billion in Jan 2022. Other transactions (row C2 in Table VA-4) changed from minus $12.1 billion in Dec 2021 to $6.6 billion in Jan 2022. In Jan 2022,

C = A + B + C2 = $53.9 billion + $4.9 billion + $6.6 billion = $65.4 billion.

There are minor rounding errors. There is weakening demand in Table VA-4 in Jan 2022 in A1 private purchases by residents overseas of US long-term securities of $29.1 billion of which strengthening in A11 Treasury securities of $62.1 billion, strengthening in A12 of $5.9 billion in agency securities, strengthening of $5.9 billion of corporate bonds and weakening of $44.7 billion in equities. Worldwide risk aversion causes flight into US Treasury obligations with significant oscillations. Official purchases of securities in row A2 increased $24.8 billion with increase of Treasury securities of $12.3 billion in Jan 2022. Official purchases of agency securities increased $16.7 billion in Jan 2022. Corporate bonds increased $1.8 billion. Row D shows increase in Jan 2022 of $56.1 billion in purchases of short-term dollar denominated obligations. Foreign holdings of US Treasury bills increased $9.5 billion (row D1) with foreign official holdings increasing $19.1 billion while the category “other” increased $42.1 billion. Foreign private holdings of US Treasury bills decreased $9.6 billion in what could be arbitrage of duration exposures and international risks. Risk aversion of default losses in foreign securities dominates decisions to accept zero interest rates in Treasury securities with no perception of principal losses. In the case of long-term securities, investors prefer to sacrifice inflation and possible duration risk to avoid principal losses with significant oscillations in risk perceptions.

Table VA-4, Net Cross-Borders Flows of US Long-Term Securities, Billion Dollars, NSA

	Jan 21 12- Months	Jan 22 12- Months	Dec 2021	Jan 2022
A Foreign Purchases less Sales of US LT Securities	142.1	612.3	76.9	53.9
A1 Private	43.6	484.5	77.5	29.1
A11 Treasury	-469.3	241.9	53.9	62.1
A12 Agency	275.5	124.4	-0.2	5.9
A13 Corporate Bonds	-123.3	119.9	-5.7	5.9
A14 Equities	360.7	-1.8	29.5	-44.7
A2 Official	98.5	127.7	-0.6	24.8
A21 Treasury	-147.2	-36.4	-9.7	12.3
A22 Agency	211.2	167.6	6.4	16.7
A23 Corporate Bonds	22.3	9.3	1.7	1.8
A24 Equities	12.2	-12.8	1.0	-6.0
B Net US Purchases of LT Foreign Securities	431.7	262.4	37.6	4.9
B1 Foreign Bonds	280.4	357.2	32.5	23.2
B2 Foreign Equities	151.3	-94.8	5.1	-18.3
C1 Net Transactions	573.8	874.6	114.5	58.8
C2 Other	-419.5	-369.4	-12.1	6.6
C Net Foreign Purchases of US LT Securities	154.3	505.2	102.4	65.4
D Increase in Foreign Holdings of Dollar Denominated Short-term
US Securities & Other Liab	277.2	232.7	42.2	51.6
D1 US Treasury Bills	309.3	-18.2	12.0	9.5
D11 Private	226.1	93.1	3.9	-9.6
D12 Official	83.2	-111.3	8.1	19.1
D2 Other	-32.2	251.0	30.2	42.1

C1 = A + B; C = C1+C2

A = A1 + A2

A1 = A11 + A12 + A13 + A14

A2 = A21 + A22 + A23 + A24

B = B1 + B2

D = D1 + D2

Sources: United States Treasury

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Pages/ticpress.aspx

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases

Table VA-5 provides major foreign holders of US Treasury securities. China is the second largest holder with $1060.1 billion in Jan 2022, decreasing 0.8 percent from $1068.7 billion in Dec 2021 while decreasing $35.1 billion from Jan 2021 or 3.2 percent. The United States Treasury estimates US government debt held by private investors at $16,932 billion in Dec 2021 (Fiscal Year 2022). China’s holding of US Treasury securities in Jan 2022 represents 6.3 percent of US government marketable interest-bearing debt held by private investors (https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/treasury-bulletin/). Min Zeng, writing on “China plays a big role as US Treasury yields fall,” on Jul 16, 2014, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/articles/china-plays-a-big-role-as-u-s-treasury-yields-fall-1405545034?tesla=y&mg=reno64-wsj), finds that acceleration in purchases of US Treasury securities by China has been an important factor in the decline of Treasury yields in 2014. Japan increased its holdings from $1276.9 billion in Jan 2021 to $1303.1 billion in Jan 2022 or 2.1 percent. The combined holdings of China and Japan in Jan 2022 add to $2363.2 billion, which is equivalent to 14.0 percent of US government marketable interest-bearing securities held by investors of $16,932 billion in Dec 2021 (Fiscal Year 2022) (https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/treasury-bulletin/). Total foreign holdings of Treasury securities increased from $7128.0 billion in Jan 2021 to $7661.7 billion in Jan 2022, or 7.5 percent. The US continues to finance its fiscal and balance of payments deficits with foreign savings (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007). Professor Martin Feldstein, at Harvard University, writing on “The Debt Crisis Is Coming Soon,” published in the Wall Street Journal on Mar 20, 2019 (https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-debt-crisis-is-coming-soon-11553122139?mod=hp_opin_pos3), foresees a US debt crisis with deficits moving above $1 trillion and debt above 100 percent of GDP. A point of saturation of holdings of US Treasury debt may be reached as foreign holders evaluate the threat of reduction of principal by dollar devaluation and reduction of prices by increases in yield, including possibly risk premium. Shultz et al (2012) find that the Fed financed three-quarters of the US deficit in fiscal year 2011, with foreign governments financing significant part of the remainder of the US deficit while the Fed owns one in six dollars of US national debt. Concentrations of debt in few holders are perilous because of sudden exodus in fear of devaluation and yield increases and the limit of refinancing old debt and placing new debt. In their classic work on “unpleasant monetarist arithmetic,” Sargent and Wallace (1981, 2) consider a regime of domination of monetary policy by fiscal policy (emphasis added):

“Imagine that fiscal policy dominates monetary policy. The fiscal authority independently sets its budgets, announcing all current and future deficits and surpluses and thus determining the amount of revenue that must be raised through bond sales and seignorage. Under this second coordination scheme, the monetary authority faces the constraints imposed by the demand for government bonds, for it must try to finance with seignorage any discrepancy between the revenue demanded by the fiscal authority and the amount of bonds that can be sold to the public. Suppose that the demand for government bonds implies an interest rate on bonds greater than the economy’s rate of growth. Then if the fiscal authority runs deficits, the monetary authority is unable to control either the growth rate of the monetary base or inflation forever. If the principal and interest due on these additional bonds are raised by selling still more bonds, so as to continue to hold down the growth of base money, then, because the interest rate on bonds is greater than the economy’s growth rate, the real stock of bonds will growth faster than the size of the economy. This cannot go on forever, since the demand for bonds places an upper limit on the stock of bonds relative to the size of the economy. Once that limit is reached, the principal and interest due on the bonds already sold to fight inflation must be financed, at least in part, by seignorage, requiring the creation of additional base money.”

Table VA-5, US, Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities $ Billions at End of Period

	Jan 2022	Dec 2021	Jan 2021
Total	7661.7	7747.7	7128.0
Japan	1303.1	1304.0	1276.9
China	1060.1	1068.7	1095.2
United Kingdom	608.8	647.4	438.7
Luxembourg	310.8	325.6	280.9
Ireland	308.3	334.3	313.6
Switzerland	299.0	288.0	254.0
Cayman Islands	271.1	261.9	216.8
Taiwan	248.6	251.0	239.6
Belgium	243.0	271.7	248.2
Brazil	239.7	244.5	260.4
France	233.9	224.9	121.5
Hong Kong	226.1	225.7	223.9
Canada	200.7	202.0	126.6
India	198.6	198.9	211.6
Foreign Official Holdings	4170.2	4160.5	4224.5
A. Treasury Bills	266.7	247.6	378.1
B. Treasury Bonds and Notes	3903.5	3912.8	3846.4

Source: United States Treasury

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Pages/ticpress.aspx

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Pages/index.aspx

https://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt

VB Japan. The GDP of Japan grew at 1.0 percent per year on average from 1991 to 2002, with the GDP implicit deflator falling at 0.8 percent per year on average. The average growth rate of Japan’s GDP was 4 percent per year on average from the middle of the 1970s to 1992 (Ito 2004). Low growth in Japan in the 1990s is commonly labeled as “the lost decade” (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 81-115). Table VB-GDP provides annual growth rates of Japan’s GDP from 1995 to 2021. Growth weakened from 2.6 per cent in 1995 and 3.1 percent in 1996 to contractions of 1.3 percent in 1998 and 0.3 percent in 1999. Growth rates were below 2 percent with exception of 2.8 percent in 2000 and 2.2 percent in 2004. Japan’s GDP contracted sharply by 1.2 percent in 2008 and 5.7 percent in 2009. As in most advanced economies, growth was robust at 4.1 percent in 2010 but mediocre at 0.0 percent in 2011 because of the tsunami and 1.4 percent in 2012. Japan’s GDP grew 2.0 percent in 2013 and nearly stagnated in 2014 at 0.3 percent. The GDP of Japan increased 1.6 percent in 2015 and 0.8 percent in 2016. Japan’s GDP increased at 1.7 percent in 2017. The GDP of Japan increased 0.6 percent in 2018. The GDP of Japan decreased 0.2 percent in 2019. Japan’s GDP contracted 4.5 percent in 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Japan’s GDP increased 1.6 percent in 2021. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). Japan’s real GDP in calendar year 2019 is 5.0 percent higher than in calendar year 2007 for growth at the average yearly rate of 0.4 percent. Japan’s real GDP grew 12.7 percent from the trough of 2009 to 2019 at the average yearly rate of 1.2 percent (https://www.cao.go.jp/index-e.html).

Table VB-GDP, Japan, Yearly Percentage Change of GDP ∆%

Calendar Year	∆%
1995	2.6
1996	3.1
1997	1.0
1998	-1.3
1999	-0.3
2000	2.8
2001	0.4
2002	0.0
2003	1.5
2004	2.2
2005	1.8
2006	1.4
2007	1.5
2008	-1.2
2009	-5.7
2010	4.1
2011	0.0
2012	1.4
2013	2.0
2014	0.3
2015	1.6
2016	0.8
2017	1.7
2018	0.6
2019	-0.2
2020	-4.5
2021	1.6

Source: Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office

Japan’s economy grew 0.8 percent in IQ2014, seasonally adjusted, partly because of anticipation of purchases to avoid the increase in the tax on value added of consumption in Apr 2014, contracting 1.8 percent in IIQ2014, as shown in Table VB-1, incorporating the latest estimates and revisions. Japan’s GDP changed 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 and grew 0.5 percent in IVQ2014. The GDP of Japan increased 1.5 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.1

percent in IIQ2015. The GDP of Japan increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2015. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.1 percent in IVQ2015. The GDP of Japan increased 0.7 percent in IQ2016 and decreased 0.1 percent in IIQ2016. Japan’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2016. The GDP of Japan increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2016, increasing 0.8 percent in IQ2017. Japan’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2017 and increased 0.8 percent in IIIQ2017. The GDP of Japan increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2017. Japan’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2018 and increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2018. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.7 percent in IIIQ2018. Japan’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IVQ2018. Japan’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2019 and increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2019. Japan’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2019. Japan’s GDP contracted 2.7

percent in IVQ2019 and increased 0.4 percent in IQ2020. Japan’s GDP contracted 7.9 percent in IIQ2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Japan’s GDP increased 5.3 percent in IIIQ2020. Japan’s GDP increased 1.9 percent in IVQ2020. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.5 percent in IQ2021. Japan’s GDP grew 0.6 percent in IIQ2021. The GDP of Japan contracted 0.7 percent in IIIQ2021. Japan’s GDP increased 1.1 percent in IVQ2021. The GDP of Japan decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2013 after growing 1.0 percent in IIIQ2013, 0.9 percent in IIQ2013 and 1.4 percent in IQ2013. Japan’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IIIQ2012. GDP growth in IQ2012 was revised to 1.4 percent; IIQ2012 GDP growth was revised to minus 0.9 percent; and IIIQ2012 growth was revised to minus 0.4 percent. The economy of Japan had already weakened in IVQ2010 when GDP fell revised 0.8 percent. As in other advanced economies, Japan’s recovery from the global recession has not been robust. GDP fell 1.1 percent in IQ2011 and fell again 0.9 percent in IIQ2011 because of the disruption of the tragic Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Recovery was robust in the first two quarters of 2010 but GDP grew at 1.8 percent in IIIQ2010 and fell 0.8 percent in IVQ2010. The deepest quarterly contractions in the global recession were 2.5 percent in IVQ2008 and 4.8 percent in IQ2009. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). Using seasonally adjusted and price adjusted data (https://www.cao.go.jp/index-e.html), Japan’s GDP fell 8.8 percent from the pre-downturn peak of ¥528,892.3 million in IQ2008 to the lowest reading of ¥482,133.8 million in IQ2009. Japan’s GDP increased 2.1 percent from the pre-downturn peak of ¥528,892.3 million in IQ2008 to ¥540,210.6 million in IVQ2021 at the annual equivalent rate of 0.2 percent. GDP in Japan grew 12.0 percent from IIQ2009 to IVQ2021 at the annual equivalent rate of 0.9 percent, using the latest revision (https://www.cao.go.jp/index-e.html). The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) of the Cabinet Office of Japan revised the national accounts of Japan following the international standard of the national accounts. ESRI also changed the benchmark reference to 2015 in the second estimate for IIIQ2020 (https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/data/sokuhou/files/2020/qe203_2/gdemenuea.html). ESRI also changed the benchmark reference year from 2005 to 2011 (http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/data/kakuhou/files/2015/pdf/20160930_2008sna.pdf http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/data/sokuhou/files/2016/qe163_2/pdf/note_e.pdf). ESRI revised GDP since 1994 (http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/data/sokuhou/files/2017/qe173_2/gdemenuea.html http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/data/sokuhou/files/2017/qe173_2/pdf/note_e.pdf).

Table VB-1, Japan, Real GDP ∆% Changes from the Previous Quarter Seasonally Adjusted ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IVQ
2021	-0.5	0.6	-0.7	1.1
2020	0.4	-7.9	5.3	1.9
2019	0.5	0.5	0.0	-2.7
2018	0.1	0.4	-0.7	-0.2
2017	0.8	0.4	0.8	0.1
2016	0.7	-0.1	0.2	0.2
2015	1.5	0.1	0.1	-0.1
2014	0.8	-1.8	0.1	0.5
2013	1.4	0.9	1.0	-0.1
2012	1.4	-0.9	-0.4	-0.1
2011	-1.1	-0.9	2.4	-0.1
2010	1.1	1.2	1.8	-0.8
2009	-4.8	2.0	0.0	1.2
2008	0.4	-0.6	-1.2	-2.5
2007	0.7	0.0	-0.5	0.4
2006	0.2	0.2	-0.2	1.3
2005	0.5	0.8	1.0	0.2
2004	0.7	0.0	0.6	-0.2
2003	0.1	0.7	0.3	1.1
2002	0.2	0.8	0.3	0.3
2001	0.7	-0.8	-1.1	-0.3
2000	1.7	0.5	0.0	1.0
1999	-1.4	0.4	0.5	0.0
1998	-1.2	-0.4	0.2	0.8
1997	0.3	-0.8	0.2	0.0

Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office

Japan’s GDP grew at 4.6 percent in IVQ2021 with deductions of 0.5 percent by private inventory (PINV) divestment and 0.3 percent by Government consumption expenditure (GOVC). Personal Consumption (PC) contributed 5.2 percent. Net Trade contributed 0.9 percent and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) contributed 0.7 percent

Japan’s GDP contracted at 2.8 percent in IIIQ2021 with deductions of 2.1 percent by Personal Consumption (PC), and 2.4 percent by Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF). Government consumption expenditure (GOVC) contributed 0.9 percent. Net Trade contributed 0.4 percent and private inventory investment (PINV) contributed 0.4 percent. Japan’s GDP grew at 2.4 percent in IIQ2021 with contributions of 1.5 percent by Personal Consumption (PC), 0.6 percent by Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) and 0.6 percent by government expenditure (GOVC). Net Trade deducted 0.3 percent and private inventory investment (PINV) contributed 0.0 percent. Japan’s GDP contracted at 2.2 percent in IQ2021 with deductions of 1.7 percent by Personal consumption (PC), 0.5 percent by government expenditure (GOVC) and 0.4 percent by Net trade (Trade). Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) contributed 0.0 percent and private inventory investment (PINV) added 0.4 percent. Japan’s GDP grew at 7.7 percent in IVQ2020 with contributions of 3.5 percent by Personal consumption (PC), 0.6 percent by government expenditure (GOVC) and 3.1 percent by Net trade (Trade). Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) contributed 1.3 percent and private inventory investment (PINV) subtracted 0.7 percent. Japan’s GDP grew at 23.0 percent in IIIQ2020 with contributions of 12.3 percent by Personal consumption (PC), 2.0 percent by government expenditure (GOVC) and 11.2 percent by Net trade (Trade). Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) deducted 0.8 percent and private inventory investment (PINV) subtracted 1.8 percent. Japan’s GDP contracted at 28.2 percent in IIQ2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021), with deductions of 17.0 percent by personal consumption expenditures (PC), 9.8 percent by Net trade (Trade) and 3.8 percent by Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF). Government Expenditure (GOVC) contributed 0.3 percent and Private Inventory Investment (PINV) added 1.6 percent. Japan’s GDP grew at 1.7 percent in IQ2020 with deductions of 0.7 percent by net trade and 0.2 percent by inventory divestment (PINV). Personal consumption expenditures (PC) contributed 1.8 percent, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) contributed 0.8 percent and government expenditure (GOVC) contributed 0.1 percent. Japan’s GDP contracted at 10.5 percent in IVQ2019 with contributions of 1.3 percent by Net trade (Trade) and 0.0 percent by government expenditure (GOVC). Private inventory investment (PINV) added 0.6 percent, Personal consumption expenditures (PC) deducted 7.7 percent and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF subtracted 4.9 percent. Japan’s GDP contracted at 0.0 percent in IIIQ2019 with contributions of 1.9 percent by Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) and 0.6 percent by government expenditure (GOVC). Net trade (Trade) deducted 1.5 percent and private inventory investment (PINV) subtracted 2.2 percent. Personal consumption expenditures (PC) contributed 1.3 percent. The GDP of Japan grew at 2.1 percent in IIQ2019 with contributions of 0.3 percent by Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) and 0.3 percent by Personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Government expenditure (GOVC) contributed 0.7 percent. Net trade deducted 0.6 percent and private inventory investment (PINV) added 1.2 percent.

Japan’s GDP grew at 1.9 percent in IQ2019 with contributions of 1.0 percent by Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) and 1.2 percent by net trade (Trade). Government expenditure (GOVC) contributed 0.3 percent and private inventory investment (PINV) subtracted 1.1 percent. Personal consumption expenditures (PC) added 0.6 percent. Japan’s GDP contracted at 0.8 percent in IVQ2018 with contribution of 0.4 percent by government expenditures (GOVC) and deduction of 0.7 percent by personal consumption expenditures (PC). Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) contributed 1.2 percent and private inventory investment (PINV) added 0.7 percent. Net Trade deducted 2.4 percentage points. The GDP of Japan contracted at minus 2.9 percent in IIIQ2018 with contribution of 0.0 percent by government expenditures (GOVC). Personal consumption (PC) deducted 0.3 percentage points and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) deducted 2.0 percentage points. Net trade (Trade) deducted 0.9 percentage points and inventory investment (PINV) contributed 0.2 percentage points. The GDP of Japan increased at 1.6 percent in IIQ2018 with contributions of 0.3 percent by personal consumption (PC) and 0.6 percent by gross fixed capital formation (GFCF). Net trade (Trade) contributed 0.4 percentage points, inventory investment (PINV) added 0.2 percentage points and government expenditures (GOVC) contributed 0.1 percentage points. Japan’s GDP increased at 0.5 percent in IQ2018 with contributions of 0.4 percent by Net Trade (Trade), 0.6 percent by government expenditures (GOVC) and 0.3 percent by personal consumption expenditures (PC). Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) contributed 0.4 percent and private inventory divestment (PINV) deducted 1.2 percent. The GDP of Japan grew at 0.4 percent in IVQ2017 with contribution of 0.5 percent by personal consumption (PC) and deduction of 0.1 percent by gross fixed capital formation (GFCF). Net trade (Trade) deducted 0.5 percentage points, inventory investment (PINV) contributed 0.5 percentage points and government expenditures (GOVC) deducted 0.1 percentage points. Japan’s GDP grew at 3.1 percent in IIIQ2017 with Net Trade (Trade) contributing 1.9 percentage points and inventory investment (PINV) adding 1.6 percentage points. Private consumption (PC) deducted 0.9 percentage points. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) contributed 0.2 percentage points and government consumption (GOVC) contributed 0.3 percentage points. The GDP of Japan grew at 1.7 percent in IIQ2017 with contributions of 1.1 percent by personal consumption (PC), 0.9 percent by gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) and minus 0.3 percent by government expenditures (GOV). Net trade (Trade) deducted 0.7 percentage points and inventory investment (PINV) added 0.4 percentage points. The GDP of Japan grew at 3.2 percent in IQ2017 with contributions of 0.2 percent of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), 0.7 percent of net exports (Trade) and 0.2 percent of government consumption (GOVC). Inventory investment (PINV) contributed 0.7 percent and personal consumption (PC) contributed 1.4 percent. The GDP of Japan grew at 0.6 percent in IVQ2016 with contributions of 0.5 percent of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), 0.9 percent of net exports (Trade) and deduction of 0.0 percent of government consumption (GOVC). Inventory divestment (PINV) deducted 1.2 percent and personal consumption (PC) contributed 0.5 percent. Japan’s GDP grew at 0.7 percent in IIIQ2016 with contributions of 0.8 percent of personal consumption expenditures (PC), 1.1 percent of net trade (Trade) and 0.3 percent of government consumption expenditures (GOVC). Inventory divestment (PINV) deducted 2.0 percent and gross capital formation (GFCF) contributed 0.7 percent. The GDP of Japan contracted at 0.6 percent in IIQ2016 with deduction of 1.3 percent by personal consumption expenditures. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) contributed 0.0 percent and government consumption expenditures (GOVC) deducted 0.7 percent. Net trade (Trade) added 0.4 percent and change of private inventories (PINV) added 1.3 percent. Japan’s GDP grew at 3.0 percent in IQ2016 with contributions of 0.2 percent by personal consumption, 1.4 percent by trade and 1.0 percent by government. Gross fixed capital formation added 0.1 percent. The GDP of Japan grew at minus 0.6 percent in IVQ2015 with deduction of 1.5 percent by personal consumption (PC) expenditures and deduction of 0.0 percent by private inventories (PINV). Net trade deducted 0.2 percent and gross fixed capital formation contributed 0.4 percent. GDP grew at 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 with contributions of 0.6 percent by personal consumption expenditures and 0.4 percentage points by government consumption. Net trade deducted 0.4 percent. Gross Fixed Capital Formation contributed 1.0 percentage points and inventory divestment deducted 1.2 percentage points. GDP grew at 0.6 percent in IIQ2015 with contribution of 0.2 percent by personal consumption expenditures and deduction of 0.7 percent of net exports. Gross fixed capital formation deducted 0.8 percentage points; government consumption expenditures contributed 0.1 percentage points; and inventory investment added 1.9 percentage points. GDP grew at 6.3 percent in IQ2015 with contributions of 1.2 percentage points by personal consumption expenditures, 2.6 percent by gross fixed capital formation and increase in inventory investment at 1.1 percent. Government expenditures increased at 0.8 percent while trade contributed 0.4 percentage points. GDP expanded at 1.9 percent in IVQ2014 with contribution of 0.4 percent by personal consumption expenditures, 1.8 percent by net trade and 0.2 percent by government consumption expenditures. Gross fixed capital formation added 0.6 percent and private inventory divestment deducted 1.0 percent. Japan grew at 0.4 percent in IIIQ2014 with contributions of 0.2 percentage points of GFCF and 1.9 percentage points by personal consumptions expenditure but deduction of 2.1 percentage points of inventory divestment. Trade deducted 0.2 percentage points and government added 0.5 percent. Japan’s GDP contracted at 7.1 percent in IIQ2014 with deductions of 11.5 percent by personal consumption and 3.4 percent by gross fixed capital formation. Trade added 4.2 percentage points and government expenditures deducted 0.2 percent. Inventory investment added 3.8 percent. The GDP of Japan expanded at 3.3 percent in IQ2014 with contributions of 4.6 percent by personal consumption and 1.4 percent of gross fixed capital formation. There were deductions of 1.0 percent by trade and 1.9 percent by inventory divestment. Government expenditures contributed 0.2 percent. The GDP of Japan decreased at 0.5 percent annual equivalent in IVQ2013 with deduction of personal consumption expenditures of 0.4 percent and growth of GFCF at 1.4 percent. Trade deducted 2.1 percentage points. Japan grew at 3.9 percent in IIIQ2013 with contribution of 1.2 percentage points by personal consumption and 2.6 percentage points by GFCF. Trade deducted 1.3 percentage points. Japan grew at 3.7 percent SAAR in IIQ2013 driven by contribution of 1.8 percent of personal consumption, deduction of 0.2 percent of net trade and contribution of gross fixed capital formation at 2.9 percent. In IQ2013, Japan’s GDP increased at the SAAR of 5.6 percent in large part because of 3.6 percent in personal consumption and 1.4 percent in trade. The SAAR of GDP in IVQ2012 was minus 0.3 percent: 1.0 percentage points from growth of personal consumption expenditures less 0.3 percentage points of net trade (exports less imports) less 1.3 percentage points of private inventory investment (PINV) plus 0.6 percentage points of government consumption and minus 0.2 percentage points of gross fixed capital formation. The SAAR of GDP in IIIQ2011 was revised to a high 10.1 percent. Net trade deducted from GDP growth in three quarters of 2011 and provided the growth impulse of 3.6 percentage points in IIIQ2011. Growth in 2011 and IQ2012 was driven by personal consumption expenditures that deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2012 but contributed 1.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2012.

Table VB-2, Japan, Contributions to Changes in Real GDP, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (SAAR), %

	GDP	PC	GFCF	Trade	PINV	GOVC
2021
I	-2.2	-1.7	0.0	-0.4	0.4	-0.5
II	2.4	1.5	0.6	-0.3	0.0	0.6
III	-2.8	-2.1	-2.4	0.4	0.4	0.9
IV	4.6	5.2	0.7	0.9	-0.5	-0.3
2020
I	1.7	1.8	0.8	-0.7	-0.2	0.1
II	-28.2	-17.0	-3.8	-9.8	1.6	0.3
III	23.0	12.3	-0.8	11.2	-1.8	2.0
IV	7.7	3.5	1.3	3.1	-0.7	0.6
2019
I	1.9	0.6	1.0	1.2	-1.1	0.3
II	2.1	0.3	0.3	-0.6	1.2	0.7
III	0.0	1.3	1.9	-1.5	-2.2	0.6
IV	-10.5	-7.7	-4.9	1.3	0.6	0.0
2018
I	0.5	0.3	0.4	0.4	-1.2	0.6
II	1.6	0.3	0.6	0.4	0.2	0.1
III	-2.9	-0.3	-2.0	-0.9	0.2	0.0
IV	-0.8	-0.7	1.2	-2.4	0.7	0.4
2017
I	3.2	1.4	0.2	0.7	0.7	0.2
II	1.7	1.1	0.9	-0.7	0.4	-0.3
III	3.1	-0.9	0.2	1.9	1.6	0.3
IV	0.4	0.5	-0.1	-0.5	0.5	-0.1
2016
I	2.9	0.2	0.1	1.4	0.1	1.0
II	-0.6	-1.3	0.0	0.4	1.3	-0.7
III	0.7	0.8	0.7	1.1	-2.0	0.3
IV	0.6	0.5	0.5	0.9	-1.2	0.0
2015
I	6.3	1.2	2.6	0.4	1.1	0.8
II	0.6	0.2	-0.8	-0.7	1.9	0.1
III	0.4	0.6	1.0	-0.4	-1.2	0.4
IV	-0.6	-1.5	0.4	-0.2	0.0	0.7
2014
I	3.3	4.6	1.4	-1.0	-1.9	0.2
II	-7.1	-11.5	-3.4	4.2	3.8	-0.2
III	0.4	1.9	0.2	-0.2	-2.1	0.5
IV	1.9	0.4	0.6	1.8	-1.0	0.2
2013
I	5.6	3.6	0.4	1.4	0.5	-0.2
II	3.7	1.8	2.9	-0.2	-2.1	1.1
III	3.9	1.2	2.6	-1.3	1.5	0.0
IV	-0.5	-0.4	1.4	-2.1	0.4	0.2
2012
I	5.6	1.0	0.9	0.7	2.2	0.8
II	-3.5	0.4	0.5	-1.9	-2.4	-0.2
III	-1.5	-0.1	-0.6	-1.9	0.9	0.2
IV	-0.3	1.0	-0.2	-0.3	-1.3	0.6
2011
I	-4.2	-3.6	1.5	-1.3	-1.2	0.4
II	-3.4	1.6	-0.8	-4.3	-0.3	0.4
III	10.1	3.7	1.4	3.6	1.0	0.3
IV	-0.6	1.3	1.4	-2.6	-0.9	0.3
2010
I	4.3	0.9	1.1	1.8	1.1	-0.7
II	4.9	1.6	-0.4	0.3	2.0	1.4
III	7.5	3.5	0.6	0.6	2.5	0.3
IV	-3.2	-3.8	-0.1	0.0	0.2	0.4
2009
I	-17.9	-1.0	-4.8	-4.7	-8.0	0.3
II	8.1	2.1	-2.0	7.4	-0.7	1.1
III	-0.2	1.7	-3.0	2.0	-1.7	0.8
IV	5.0	1.5	-0.7	2.8	1.2	0.2
2008
I	1.4	1.0	0.5	0.9	-1.0	0.1
II	-2.3	-2.5	-1.1	0.4	2.0	-0.9
III	-4.9	-0.6	-0.7	-0.1	-3.4	0.0
IV	-9.5	-3.3	-2.3	-10.2	5.8	0.3
2007
I	2.7	0.2	-0.2	1.0	1.3	0.4
II	0.2	1.2	-1.5	0.7	-1.0	0.6
III	-2.2	-2.1	-2.5	2.2	0.5	-0.1
IV	1.7	0.4	-1.4	1.2	1.0	0.6

Note: PC: Private Consumption; GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation; PINV: Private Inventory; Trade: Net Exports; GOVC: Government Consumption

Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office

Long-term economic growth in Japan significantly improved by increasing competitiveness in world markets. Net trade of exports and imports is an important component of the GDP accounts of Japan. Table VB-3 provides quarterly data for net trade, exports and imports of Japan. Net trade had strong positive contributions to GDP growth in Japan in all quarters from IQ2007 to IIQ2009 with exception of IVQ2008, IIIQ2008 and IQ2009. The US recession is dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) as beginning in IVQ2007 (Dec) and ending in IIQ2009 (Jun) (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html). Net trade contributions helped to cushion the economy of Japan from the global recession. Net trade deducted from GDP growth in six of the nine quarters from IVQ2010 to IQ2012. The only strong contribution of net trade was 3.6 percent in IIIQ2011. Net trade added 0.7 percent in IQ2012, deducting 1.9 percent in IIQ2012. Net trade deducted 1.9 percent in IIIQ2012. Net traded deducted 0.3 percent in IVQ2012. Net trade added 1.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2013 but deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIQ2013, deducting 1.3 percentage points in IIIQ2013 and 2.1 percentage points in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 1.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2014. Net trade added 4.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 1.8 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2014. Net trade contributed 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2015 and deducted 0.7-percentage points in IIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.4 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015 and added 1.4 percentage points in IQ2016. Net trade contributed 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade added 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2016 and contributed 0.9 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade contributed 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017 and deducted 0.7 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade contributed 1.9 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017 and deducted 0.5 percentage-point in IVQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018 and contributed 0.4 percentage points in IIQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.9 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018 and deducted 2.4 percentage points in IVQ2018. Net trade contributed 1.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2019 with export contraction deducting 1.4 percent and import contraction contributing 2.7 percent. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2019. Net trade deducted 1.5 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade contributed 1.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2020 with export contraction deducting 3.3 percentage points and import contraction adding 2.6 percentage points. Net trade deducted 9.8 percentage points in IIQ2020 with export contraction deducting 11.1 percentage points and imports contributing 1.2 percentage points. Net trade contributed 11.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2020 with export growth contributing 5.6 percentage points and import contraction contribution of 5.6 percentage points. Net trade contributed 3.1 percentage points to GDP in IVQ2020 with export growth contributing 6.7 percentage points and imports deducting 3.6 percentage points. Net trade deducted 0.4 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2021 with exports contributing 1.4 percent and imports deducting 1.8 percent. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2021 with exports contributing 2.1 percent and imports deducting 2.5 percent. Net trade contributed 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2021 with exports deducting 0.2 percent and imports contributing 0.6 percent. Net trade contributed 0.9 percent in IVQ2021 with exports contributing 0.6 percent and imports 0.2 percent. Private consumption assumed the role of driver of Japan’s economic growth but should moderate as in most mature economies.

Table VB-3, Japan, Contributions to Changes in Real GDP, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (SAAR), %

	Net Trade	Exports	Imports
2021
I	-0.4	1.4	-1.8
II	-0.3	2.1	-2.4
III	0.4	-0.2	0.6
IV	0.9	0.6	0.2
2020
I	-0.7	-3.3	2.6
II	-9.8	-11.1	1.2
III	11.2	5.6	5.6
IV	3.1	6.7	-3.6
2019
I	1.2	-1.4	2.7
II	-0.6	0.2	-0.8
III	-1.5	0.2	-1.6
IV	1.3	-0.4	1.7
2018
I	0.4	0.9	-0.4
II	0.4	0.6	-0.2
III	-0.9	-1.3	0.3
IV	-2.4	0.9	-3.2
2017
I	0.7	1.4	-0.7
II	-0.7	0.0	-0.7
III	1.9	1.5	0.4
IV	-0.5	1.2	-1.7
2016
I	1.4	0.5	0.9
II	0.4	-0.5	0.8
III	1.1	1.4	-0.4
IV	0.9	1.8	-0.9
2015
I	0.4	1.1	-0.7
II	-0.7	-2.4	1.7
III	-0.4	1.7	-2.2
IV	-0.2	-0.7	0.5
2014
I	-1.0	3.9	-4.8
II	4.2	0.9	3.3
III	-0.2	1.0	-1.3
IV	1.8	2.1	-0.3
2013
I	1.4	1.8	-0.4
II	-0.2	1.9	-2.1
III	-1.3	-0.1	-1.2
IV	-2.1	-0.2	-1.9
2012
I	0.7	1.8	-1.2
II	-1.9	-0.5	-1.4
III	-1.9	-2.2	0.2
IV	-0.3	-2.0	1.7
2011
I	-1.3	-0.5	-0.8
II	-4.3	-4.6	0.3
III	3.6	5.4	-1.8
IV	-2.6	-1.6	-0.9
2010
I	1.8	3.2	-1.4
II	0.3	2.8	-2.5
III	0.6	1.6	-1.0
IV	0.0	0.2	-0.3
2009
I	-4.7	-16.0	11.4
II	7.4	4.6	2.8
III	2.0	5.1	-3.1
IV	2.8	4.2	-1.3
2008
I	0.9	1.8	-0.9
II	0.4	-1.4	1.8
III	-0.1	0.0	-0.2
IV	-10.2	-9.1	-1.1
2007
I	1.0	1.5	-0.5
II	0.7	1.6	-0.9
III	2.2	1.6	0.5
IV	1.2	2.0	-0.7

Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office

Japan’s percentage growth of GDP not seasonally adjusted in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier is in in Table VB-4. Contraction of GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier extended over seven quarters from IIQ2008 through IVQ2009. Contraction was sharpest in IQ2009 with output declining 9.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Yearly quarterly rates of growth of Japan were relatively high for a mature economy through the decade except for the contractions from IVQ2001 to IIQ2002 and after 2007. The Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011 caused slower GDP in IQ2011 at 1.1 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier and decline of 0.9 percent in IIQ2011. GDP fell 0.3 percent in IIIQ2011 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2011 relative to a year earlier. Growth resumed with 3.0 percent in IQ2012 relative to a year earlier. Growth of 2.8 percent in IIQ2012 is largely caused by the low level in IIQ2011 resulting from the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2012 relative to a year earlier and decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent in IIQ2013. Growth of 3.0 percent in IIIQ2013 relative to a year earlier is partly due to the decline of 0.4 percent in GDP in IIIQ2012. GDP increased 3.1 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 2.9 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.1 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP contracted 1.1 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.5 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier in IQ2015 and increased 2.4 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 2.2 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.5 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.0 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, Japan’s GDP increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 1.0 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2017, Japan’s GDP increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 2.1 percent in IIIQ2017 relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 2.2 percent in IVQ2017 relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, the GDP of Japan increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 1.3 percent in IIQ2018 relative to a year earlier and decreased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2018 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan decreased 0.2 percent in IVQ2018 relative to a year earlier, decreasing 0.1 percent in IQ2019 relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2019 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 0.8 percent in IIIQ2019 relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP fell 1.7 percent in IVQ2019 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan decreased 1.8 percent in IQ2020 relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP decreased 10.1 percent in IIQ2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021). The GDP of Japan contracted 5.4 percent in IIIQ2020 relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.8 percent in IVQ2020 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan contracted 1.8 percent in IQ2021 relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP grew 7.3 percent in IIQ2021 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 1.2 percent in IIIQ2021 relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2021 relative to a year earlier. Japan faces the challenge of recovery from the devastation of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011 in an environment of declining world trade and bouts of risk aversion that cause appreciation of the Japanese yen, eroding the country’s competitiveness in world markets. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). Using price adjusted but not seasonally adjusted data (https://www.cao.go.jp/index-e.html), Japan’s GDP contracted 11.7 percent from the high in IVQ2007 to the low in IIQ2009. GDP increased 2.4 percent from IVQ2007 to IVQ2021. Japan’s GDP grew 16.0 percent from IIIQ2009 to IVQ2021 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.2 percent.

Table VB-4, Japan, Real GDP ∆% Changes from Same Quarter Year Earlier, NSA ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IVQ
2021	-1.8	7.3	1.2	0.4
2020	-1.8	-10.1	-5.4	-0.8
2019	-0.1	0.1	0.8	-1.7
2018	1.4	1.3	-0.1	-0.2
2017	1.0	1.4	2.1	2.2
2016	1.0	0.5	0.5	1.0
2015	0.3	2.4	2.2	1.5
2014	2.9	-0.1	-1.1	-0.5
2013	0.0	1.8	3.0	3.1
2012	3.0	2.8	-0.1	-0.1
2011	1.1	-0.9	-0.3	0.2
2010	4.4	3.5	5.6	3.0
2009	-9.0	-6.6	-5.4	-1.7
2008	0.4	-0.4	-1.0	-3.9
2007	2.2	1.8	1.4	0.6
2006	2.5	1.4	0.2	1.5
2005	1.1	1.7	2.0	2.4
2004	3.1	2.2	2.5	1.1
2003	1.6	1.4	1.3	1.9
2002	-1.9	-0.3	0.9	1.4
2001	2.5	1.0	-0.2	-1.7
2000	3.2	2.9	2.4	2.6
1999	-0.6	-0.1	0.2	-0.8
1998	-1.8	-1.1	-1.4	-0.8
1997	2.8	0.9	0.8	-0.5

Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office

VF France. Table VF-FR provides growth rates of GDP of France with the estimates of Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE). The long-term rate of GDP growth of France from IVQ1949 to IVQ2019 is quite high at 3.1 percent, decreasing to 3.0 percent as measured from 1949 to 2021. France’s growth rates were quite high in the four decades of the 1950s, 1960, 1970s and 1980s with an average growth rate of 4.1 percent compounding the average rates in the decades and discounting to one decade. The growth impulse diminished with 2.0 percent in the 1990s and 1.8 percent from 2000 to 2007. The average growth rate from 2000 to 2021 is 1.2 percent. The average growth rate from 2000 to 2020, using fourth quarter data, is 0.9 percent because of the sharp impact of the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009 and the sharp contraction from IVQ2019 to IIQ2020. GDP fell 18.4 percent from €582,691 million SA-WDA in IVQ2019 to €475,546 million SA-WDA in IIQ2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021). Table VF-FR shows that GDP in IVQ2021 is 0.9 percent higher than in IVQ2019; GDP increased from €582,691 million SA-WDA in IVQ2019 to €587,949 million SA-WDA in IVQ2021 or 0.9 percent (https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/6206553 https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/6044034). Cobet and Wilson (2002) provide estimates of output per hour and unit labor costs in national currency and US dollars for the US, Japan and Germany from 1950 to 2000 (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 137-44). The average yearly rate of productivity change from 1950 to 2000 was 2.9 percent in the US, 6.3 percent for Japan and 4.7 percent for Germany while unit labor costs in USD increased at 2.6 percent in the US, 4.7 percent in Japan and 4.3 percent in Germany. From 1995 to 2000, output per hour increased at the average yearly rate of 4.6 percent in the US, 3.9 percent in Japan and 2.6 percent in Germany while unit labor costs in US fell at minus 0.7 percent in the US, 4.3 percent in Japan and 7.5 percent in Germany. There was increase in productivity growth in the G7 in Japan and France in the second half of the 1990s but significantly lower than the acceleration of 1.3 percentage points per year in the US. Lucas (2011May) compares growth of the G7 economies (US, UK, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Canada) and Spain, finding that catch-up growth with earlier rates for the US and UK stalled in the 1970s.

Table VF-FR, France, Average Growth Rates of GDP 1949-2021

Period	Average ∆%
1949-2021	3.0
1949-2019	3.1
IVQ2019-IVQ2021	∆% 0.9
2007-2021	0.8
2007-2020******	0.5
2007-2019*****	0.9
2007-2018****	0.9
2007-2017***	0.8
2007-2016**	0.6
2007-2015*	0.5
2007-2014	0.4
2000-2021	1.2
2000-2020	0.9
2000-2019	1.2
2000-2018	1.3
2000-2017	1.2
2000-2016	1.1
2000-2015	1.1
2000-2014	1.1
2000-2007	1.8
1990-1999	2.0
1980-1989	2.7
1970-1979	3.7
1960-1969	5.7
1950-1959	4.2

*IVQ2007 to IVQ2015 **IVQ2007 to IVQ2016 ***IVQ2007 to IVQ2017 ****IVQ2007 to IVQ2018 *****IVQ2007 to IVQ2019 ******IVQ2007-IVQ2020

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/6044034

Growth of GDP in a quarter relative to the prior quarter for France is in Table VF-1. GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 and changed 0.0 percent in IQ2013, rebounding with growth of 0.7 percent in IIQ2013. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2013. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2014. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2014. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2014. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2015 and changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2015. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2015. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2016. GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IIQ2016. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2016. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IQ2017 and increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2017. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2017. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2017. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IQ2018. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2018. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2018. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2018. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2019. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2019. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2019. GDP decreased 0.4 percent in IVQ2019. GDP contracted 5.7 percent in IQ2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021). GDP contracted 13.5 percent in IIQ2020. GDP grew 18.6 percent in IIIQ2020. GDP decreased 1.1 percent in IVQ2020. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2021. GDP increased 1.3 percent in IIQ2021. GDP increased 3.1 percent in IIIQ2021. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2021. The French economy grew 0.2 percent in IVQ2011, increasing 0.1 percent in IQ2012, changing minus 0.2 percent in IIQ2012 and growing 0.2 percent in IIIQ2012. In the four quarters of 2012 and the first quarter of 2013, France’s GDP contracted in two quarters and stagnated in one quarter. Growth in the ten quarters of expansion from IIIQ2009 to IVQ2011 accumulated 4.8 percent at the annual equivalent rate of 1.9 percent. Recovery has been much weaker than the cumulative 2.6 percent in the four quarters of 2006. The GDP of France contracted 3.8 percent from the pre-recession peak in IQ2008 at €525,340 million SA-WDA (seasonally adjusted working day adjusted volumes chained at previous year prices) to the trough in IIQ2009 at €505,130 million SA-WDA. The GDP of France increased 11.9 percent from the pre-recession peak in IQ2008 at €525,340 million SA-WDA to €587,949 million SA-WDA in IVQ2021 at the annual equivalent rate of 0.8 percent. French GDP increased 16.4 percent from €505,130 million SA-WDA in IIQ2009 to €587,949 million SA-WDA in IVQ2021 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.2 percent. French GDP in IVQ2021 is 12.4 percent below trend at average 1.8 percent from 2000 to 2007. Weak recoveries in advanced economies have prevented full utilization of labor, capital and productive resources.

Table VF-1, France, Quarterly Real GDP Growth, Quarter on Prior Quarter ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IVQ
2021	0.2	1.3	3.1	0.7
2020	-5.7	-13.5	18.6	-1.1
2019	0.6	0.5	0.1	-0.4
2018	0.0	0.3	0.4	0.7
2017	0.8	0.8	0.6	0.8
2016	0.6	-0.2	0.2	0.5
2015	0.5	0.0	0.3	0.2
2014	0.1	0.1	0.5	0.1
2013	0.0	0.7	0.0	0.5
2012	0.1	-0.2	0.2	-0.1
2011	1.0	0.0	0.4	0.2
2010	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.7
2009	-1.6	-0.1	0.2	0.7
2008	0.4	-0.4	-0.3	-1.5
2007	0.7	0.8	0.4	0.2
2006	0.8	1.0	0.0	0.8
2005	0.3	0.2	0.5	0.8
2004	0.9	0.6	0.3	0.8
2003	0.2	-0.2	0.7	0.7
2002	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.0
2001	0.5	0.2	0.3	0.0
2000	0.9	1.0	0.6	0.8
1999	0.5	0.8	1.2	1.4

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/6044034

Table VF-2 provides growth in a quarter of France’s GDP relative to a quarter a year earlier. France has not recovered the rates of growth exceeding 2 percent prior to the global recession. GDP fell 3.8 percent in IQ2009, 3.4 percent in IIQ2009, 3.0 percent in IIIQ2009 and 0.9 percent in IVQ2009. Growth in IVQ2011 relative to IVQ2010 was 1.6 percent and GDP growth declined to 0.7 percent in IQ2012 relative to a year earlier, 0.5 percent in IIQ2012 relative to the same quarter a year earlier, 0.3 percent in IIIQ2012 relative to a year earlier and 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 relative to a year earlier. Growth in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier was 0.0 percent. France’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 0.6 percent in IIIQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.1 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 1.2 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.2 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.2 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.1 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.9 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.0 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.1 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.0 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIIQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.2 percent in IVQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.4 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 2.4 percent in IIQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 2.8 percent in IIIQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased 3.1 percent in IVQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 2.3 percent in IQ2018 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.9 percent in IIQ2018 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IIIQ2018 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.5 percent in IVQ2018 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 2.1 percent in IQ2019 relative to a year earlier and increased 2.3 percent in IIQ2019 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 2.0 percent in IIIQ2019 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.9 percent in IVQ2019 relative to a year earlier. GDP contracted 5.5 percent in IQ2020 relative to a year earlier in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021). GDP contracted 18.6 percent in IIQ2020 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 3.6 percent in IIIQ2020 relative to a year earlier. GDP decreased 4.3 percent in IVQ2020 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.7 percent in IQ2021 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 19.0 percent in IIQ2021 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 3.5 percent in IIIQ2021 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 5.4 percent in IVQ2021 relative to a year earlier.

Table VF-2, France, Real GDP Growth Current Quarter Relative to Same Quarter Year Earlier ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IVQ
2021	1.7	19.0	3.5	5.4
2020	-5.5	-18.6	-3.6	-4.3
2019	2.1	2.3	2.0	0.9
2018	2.3	1.9	1.6	1.5
2017	1.4	2.4	2.8	3.1
2016	1.1	1.0	0.8	1.2
2015	1.2	1.1	0.9	1.0
2014	1.2	0.7	1.2	0.8
2013	0.0	0.8	0.6	1.1
2012	0.7	0.5	0.3	0.1
2011	2.9	2.4	2.1	1.6
2010	1.1	1.7	2.2	2.2
2009	-3.8	-3.4	-3.0	-0.9
2008	1.8	0.6	-0.1	-1.8
2007	2.6	2.3	2.7	2.1
2006	2.2	3.1	2.6	2.6
2005	1.9	1.5	1.7	1.7
2004	2.1	3.0	2.6	2.6
2003	1.0	0.4	0.6	1.4
2002	0.9	1.1	1.3	1.2
2001	3.0	2.2	1.8	1.0
2000	4.4	4.6	4.0	3.4
1999	2.9	2.8	3.4	4.0

https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/6044034

Chart VF-1 provides the GDP of France from IQ1949 to IQ2017. There was substantial drop during the global recession followed by hesitant growth and more recent higher growth. The update is here: https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/serie/010565708#Graphique

Chart VF-1, France, Quarterly Real GDP, Seasonally and Working Day Adjusted, IQ1949-IQ2017

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/3047950

The update is here: https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/serie/010565708#Graphique

Percentage changes and contributions of segments of GDP in France are in Table VF-3. Internal demand deducted 2.5 percentage points in IVQ2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021). Internal demand deducted 0.1 percentage points in IQ2021. Internal demand added 1.5 percentage points in IIQ2021. Internal demand added 3.3 percentage points in IIIQ2021.. Net trade added 0.8 percentage points in IVQ2020. Net trade deducted 0.4 percentage points in IQ2021. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIQ2021. Net trade added 0.7 percentage points in IIIQ2021.

Table VF-3, France, Contributions to GDP Growth, Percentage Change from Preceding Period Calendar and Seasonally Adjusted, %

∆% from Prior Period	IQ2021	IIQ2021	IIIQ2021	IVQ2021	2020	2021
GDP	0.1	1.3	3.1	0.7	-8.0	7.0
Imports	1.8	1.9	0.8	3.6	-12.2	7.6
Household Consump.	-0.2	1.3	5.6	0.4	-7.2	4.8
Govt. Consump.	-0.3	0.4	2.7	0.3	-3.2	6.2
GFCF	0.2	2.5	0.1	0.5	-8.9	11.6
Exports	0.4	2.0	1.7	3.2	-16.1	9.0
% Point Contribs.
Internal Demand ex Inventory Changes	-0.1	1.4	3.6	0.5	-6.7	6.8
Inventory Changes	0.7	-0.1	-0.7	0.4	-0.2	-0.1
Net Foreign Trade	-0.4	0.0	0.2	-0.2	-1.1	0.2

Notes: Consump.: Consumption; Gvt.: Government; GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation; Contribus.: Contributions; OVHG: “annual growth rate carried over at the mid-year point.”

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques