CMP Associates Regulation Blog

Chart V-3C provides nonfarm payroll manufacturing jobs in the United States from Jan 2007 to Apr 2021. Nonfarm payroll manufacturing jobs fell from 13.987 million in Jun 2007 to 12.246 million in Apr 2021, or 1.741 million.

Chart V-3C, United States, Payroll Manufacturing Jobs, NSA, Jan 2007 to Apr 2021, Thousands

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm

Chart V-3D provides the index of US manufacturing (NAICS) from Jan 1972 to Apr 2021. The index continued increasing during the decline of manufacturing jobs after the early 1980s. There are likely effects of changes in the composition of manufacturing with also changes in productivity and trade. There is sharp decline in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. There is initial recovery in May 2020-Apr 2021.

Chart V-3D, United States Manufacturing (NAICS) NSA, Jan 1972 to Apr 2021

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Chart V-3E provides the US noninstitutional civilian population, or those in condition of working, from Jan 1948, when first available, to Apr 2021. The noninstitutional civilian population increased from 170.042 million in Jun 1981 to 261.103 million in Apr 2021 or 91.061 million.

Chart V-3E, United States, Civilian Noninstitutional Population, Million, NSA, Jan 1948 to Apr 2021

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Chart V-3F provides manufacturing jobs in the United States from Jan 1939 to Apr 2021. Nonfarm payroll manufacturing jobs decreased from a peak of 18.890 million in Jun 1981 to 12.246 million in Apr 2021.

Chart V-3F, United States, Payroll Manufacturing Jobs, NSA, Jan 1939 to Apr 2021, Thousands

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

There is global stress in manufacturing. Table V-3B provides month and 12-month percentage changes of new orders in manufacturing and output of manufacturing in Germany.

Table V-3B, Germany, Manufacturing Orders and Manufacturing Output, ∆% Month and 12 Months

	MFG New Orders Month ∆%	MFG New Orders 12 Months ∆%	MFG Output Month ∆%	MFG Output 12 Month ∆%
Apr 2021	-0.2	78.9	-0.6	34.5
Mar	3.9	33.0	0.7	9.4
Feb	1.6	7.2	-2.0	-5.5
Jan	0.8	-4.3	-0.5	-10.0
Dec 2020	-1.8	10.7	1.5	3.1
Nov	2.7	9.5	1.2	-1.1
Oct	3.4	3.9	3.5	-3.6
Sep	2.0	2.4	2.5	-5.3
Aug	4.3	-3.8	-0.3	-14.0
Jul	5.1	-6.4	1.9	-11.2
Jun	28.1	-6.3	11.5	-6.9
May	13.1	-33.5	11.7	-28.3
Apr	-28.1	-38.4	-22.1	-30.4
Mar	-14.8	-12.1	-10.9	-8.5
Feb	-2.8	0.3	1.5	-3.2
Jan	6.3	-1.0	2.4	-4.1
Dec 2019	-1.4	-7.1	-1.6	-4.5
Nov	-1.0	-8.5	0.5	-6.9
Oct	-0.7	-5.4	-1.2	-5.6
Sep	1.2	-1.8	-1.1	-1.1
Aug	-0.7	-9.0	0.3	-7.4
Jul	-0.3	-1.8	-0.5	-0.6
Jun	1.2	-11.0	-1.0	-14.4
May	-1.2	-3.6	1.0	1.3
Apr	-1.2	-5.2	-2.7	-3.9
Mar	2.5	-6.2	0.7	-3.4
Feb	-4.3	-7.2	0.4	0.1
Jan	-3.0	-3.6	-1.1	-3.1
Dec 2018	1.6	-8.2	1.2	-6.7
Dec 2017	2.6	3.9	-0.4	3.7
Dec 2016	4.4	11.2	-1.8	2.0
Dec 2015	-1.4	-0.5	0.8	1.1

Source: Federal Statistical Agency of Germany, https://www.destatis.de/EN/Home/_node.html

Table V-3 provides the latest available estimates of GDP for the regions and countries followed in this blog from IQ2012 to IVQ2018 available now for all countries. There are estimates for all countries for IQ2019 and for IIQ2019 for most countries. There are preliminary estimates for most countries for IIIQ2019 and for IVQ2019. There are some estimates for IQ2020. Growth is weak throughout most of the world.

Japan. The GDP of Japan increased 1.4 percent in IQ2012, 5.7 percent at SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) and increased 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier but part of the jump could be the low level a year earlier because of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan is experiencing difficulties with the overvalued yen because of worldwide capital flight originating in zero interest rates with risk aversion in an environment of softer growth of world trade. Japan’s GDP fell 0.9 percent in IIQ2012 at the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of minus 3.6 percent, which is much lower than 5.7 percent in IQ2012. Growth of 2.8 percent in IIQ2012 in Japan relative to IIQ2011 has effects of the low level of output because of Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IIIQ2012 at the SAAR of minus 1.5 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 at the SAAR of minus 0.3 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan grew 1.4 percent in IQ2013 at the SAAR of 5.7 percent and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.9 percent in IIQ2013 at the SAAR of 3.6 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP grew 1.0 percent in IIIQ2013 at the SAAR of 3.9 percent and increased 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Japan’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent at the SAAR of minus 0.5 percent, increasing 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IQ2014 at the SAAR of 3.4 percent and increased 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Japan’s GDP fell 1.8 percent at the SAAR of minus 7.2 percent and fell 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 at the SAAR of 0.4 percent and fell 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, Japan’s GDP grew 0.5 percent, at the SAAR of 2.0 percent, decreasing 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 1.5 percent in IQ2015 at the SAAR of 6.3 percent and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2015 at the SAAR of 0.4 percent and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2015 at the SAAR of 0.4 percent and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.1 percent in IVQ2015 at the SAAR of minus 0.4 percent and grew 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, the GDP of Japan increased 0.7 percent at the SAAR of 2.9 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IIQ2016 at the SAAR of minus 0.9 percent and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of Japan increased 0.2 percent at the SAAR of 0.8 percent and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2016 at the SAAR of 1.2 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, the GDP of Japan increased 0.8 percent at the SAAR of 3.1 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2017 at the SAAR of 0.9 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, the GDP of Japan increased 0.8 percent at the SAAR of 3.2 percent and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2017, at the SAAR of 1.7 percent, and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, the GDP of Japan changed 0.0 percent, at the SAAR of 0.0 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2018, at the SAAR of 0.0 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, the GDP of Japan contracted 0.7 percent at the SAAR of minus 2.7 percent and decreased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2018, at the SAAR of 1.8 percent and decreased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, the GDP of Japan increased 0.4 percent at the SAAR of 1.4 percent and grew 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2019, at the SAAR of 0.5 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, the GDP of Japan increased 0.1 percent at the SAAR of 0.5 percent and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP decreased 1.9 percent in IVQ2019, at the SAAR of minus 7.4 percent and decreased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2020, the GDP of Japan contracted 0.5 percent at the SAAR of minus 2.0 percent and decreased 2.1 percent relative to a year. The GDP of Japan contracted 8.1 percent in IIQ2020 at the SAAR of minus 28.6 percent and decreased 10.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2020, the GDP of Japan increased 5.3 percent at the SAAR of 22.9 percent and decreased 5.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 2.8 percent in IVQ2020 at the SAAR of 11.7 percent and decreased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2021, the GDP of Japan contracted 1.0 percent at the SAAR of minus 3.9 percent and decreased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier.
China. China’s GDP grew 1.9 percent in IQ2012, annualizing to 7.8 percent, and 8.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 2.1 percent in IIQ2012, which annualizes to 8.7 percent, and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 1.8 percent in IIIQ2012, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and 7.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, China grew at 2.0 percent, which annualizes at 8.2 percent, and 8.1 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, China grew at 1.9 percent, which annualizes at 7.8 percent, and 7.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, China grew at 1.8 percent, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 2.1 percent in IIIQ2013, which annualizes at 8.7 percent, and increased 7.9 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 1.6 percent in IVQ2013, which annualized to 6.6 percent, and 7.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 7.5 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent in IQ2014 that is equivalent to 7.4 percent per year. GDP grew 7.6 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is annual equivalent 7.4 percent. In IIIQ2014, GDP grew 7.2 percent relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is 7.4 percent in annual equivalent. GDP grew 1.7 percent in IVQ2014, which is 7.0 percent in annual equivalent and 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2015, GDP grew 1.9 percent, which is equivalent to 7.8 in a year and 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 1.8 percent in IIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.4 percent in a year, and grew 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.7 percent in IIIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent in a year, and grew 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.6 percent in IVQ2015, which is equivalent to 6.6 percent in a year and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, GDP grew at 1.6 percent, which is equivalent to 6.6 percent in a year, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.8 percent in IIQ2016, which is annual equivalent to 7.4 percent, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, GDP grew at 1.7 percent, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent in a year and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, GDP grew at 1.6 percent, equivalent to 6.6 percent in a year, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 7.0 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased at 1.8 percent, which is 7.4 percent in annual equivalent. In IIQ2017, GDP grew at 1.7 percent, which is annual equivalent at 7.0 percent, and increased 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.6 percent in IIIQ2017, which is annual equivalent at 6.6 percent, and increased at 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, GDP grew 1.6 percent, which is annual equivalent to 6.6 percent, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.9 percent in IQ2018, which is annual equivalent at 7.8 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2018, GDP grew at 1.5 percent, which is annual equivalent to 6.1 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.4 percent in IIIQ2018, which is annual equivalent at 5.7 percent, and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2018, GDP grew at 1.6 percent, which is annual equivalent to 6.6 percent, and increased 6.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.8 percent in IQ2019, which is annual equivalent to 7.4 percent, and increased 6.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2019, GDP grew at 1.0 percent, which is annual equivalent to 4.1 percent and increased 6.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.3 percent in IIIQ2019, which is annual equivalent to 5.3 percent, and increased 5.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2019, GDP grew at 1.6 percent, which is annual equivalent to 6.6 percent, and increased 5.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP contracted minus 9.3 percent in IQ2020, which is annual equivalent to minus 32.3 percent, and contracted minus 6.8 percent in IQ2020 relative to a year earlier, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. GDP grew at 10.1 percent in IIQ2020, which is equivalent to 46.9 percent in a year and grew 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2020, GDP grew 3.1 percent, which is annual equivalent at 13.0 percent, and grew 4.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 3.2 percent in IVQ2020, which is equivalent to 13.4 percent in a year, and grew 6.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2021, GDP grew 0.6 percent, which is annual equivalent at 2.4 percent, and grew 18.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Growth rates of GDP of China in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier have been declining from 2011 to 2020.

Euro Area. GDP fell 0.2 percent in the euro area in IQ2012 and decreased 0.5 in IQ2012 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP contracted 0.3 percent IIQ2012 and fell 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.1 percent and declined 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.4 percent relative to the prior quarter and fell 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, the GDP of the euro area fell 0.4 percent and decreased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2013, euro area GDP increased 0.3 percent and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2013 and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The euro area’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 0.7 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The euro area’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2016 and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, euro area GDP increased 0.7 percent and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2017 and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.8 percent and grew 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area grew 0.9 percent in IVQ2017 and increased 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.1 percent and grew 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area grew 0.5 percent in IIQ2018 and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2018 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2019 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2019 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2020, the GDP of the euro area decreased 3.8 percent and decreased 3.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area contracted 11.6 percent in IIQ2020 and contracted 14.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2020, the GDP of the euro area increased 12.5 percent and contracted 4.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area contracted 0.7 percent in IVQ2020 and contracted 4.9 percent relative to a year earlier.
Germany. The GDP of Germany increased 0.2 percent in IQ2012 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier but 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier when adjusted for calendar effects (CA). In IIIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IVQ2012 and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, Germany’s GDP decreased 0.5 percent and fell 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 1.1 percent and grew 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2013 and grew 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 1.0 percent in IQ2014 and grew 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Germany’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany decreased 0.5 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2015 and grew 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and grew 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2015 and grew 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, the GDP of Germany increased 0.9 percent and grew 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 3.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of Germany increased 0.2 percent and grew 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2016 and grew 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, the GDP of Germany increased 1.2 percent and grew 3.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2017 and grew 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier and 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier adjusting for calendar effects (CA). In IIIQ2017, the GDP of Germany increased 0.9 percent and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier and 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2017, 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier and 3.6 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany decreased 0.2 percent in IQ2018 and grew 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier and 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2018, 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier and 2.0 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany decreased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2018, increasing 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier and 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2018, increasing 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier and 0.3 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany increased 0.6 percent in IQ2019, increasing 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier and increasing 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP contracted 0.5 percent in IIQ2019, decreased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier and increased 0.1 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2019, increasing 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier and increasing 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2019, increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP decreased 2.0 percent in IQ2020, decreased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier and decreased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany decreased 9.7 percent in IIQ2020, decreased 11.3 percent relative to a year earlier and decreased 11.3 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 8.7 percent in IIIQ2020, decreased 3.7 percent relative to a year earlier and decreased 3.8 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2020, decreased 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier and decreased 3.3 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP decreased 1.8 percent in IQ2021, decreased 3.4 percent relative to a year earlier and decreased 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier (CA).
United States. Growth of US GDP in IQ2012 was 0.8 percent, at SAAR of 3.2 percent and higher by 2.7 percent relative to IQ2011. US GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2012, 1.7 percent at SAAR and 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, US GDP grew 0.1 percent, 0.5 percent at SAAR and 2.5 percent relative to IIIQ2011. In IVQ2012, US GDP grew 0.1 percent, 0.5 percent at SAAR and 1.5 percent relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, US GDP grew at 3.6 percent SAAR, 0.9 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.6 percent relative to the same quarter in 2012. In IIQ2013, US GDP grew at 0.5 percent in SAAR, 0.1 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.3 percent relative to IIQ2012. US GDP grew at 3.2 percent in SAAR in IIIQ2013, 0.8 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.9 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/05/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-64-percent-in_29.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/05/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-64-percent-in.html) In IVQ2013, US GDP grew 0.8 percent at 3.2 percent SAAR and 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, US GDP decreased 0.3 percent, increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier and fell 1.1 percent at SAAR. In IIQ2014, US GDP increased 1.4 percent at 5.5 percent SAAR and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP increased 1.2 percent in IIIQ2014 at 5.0 percent SAAR and increased 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, US GDP increased 0.6 percent at SAAR of 2.3 percent and increased 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.9 percent in IQ2015 at SAAR of 3.8 percent and grew 4.1 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.7 percent in IIQ2015, increasing 0.7 percent in the quarter and 3.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 at SAAR of 1.5 percent and grew 2.6 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 0.6 percent in IVQ2015, increasing 0.2 percent in the quarter and 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, US GDP grew 0.6 percent at SAAR of 2.3 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 1.3 percent in IIQ2016, increasing 0.3 percent in the quarter and 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, US GDP grew 0.5 percent at SAAR of 2.2 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.5 percent in IVQ2016, increasing 0.6 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, US GDP grew 0.6 percent at SAAR of 2.3 percent and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 1.7 percent in IIQ2017, increasing 0.4 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, US GDP grew 0.7 percent at SAAR of 2.9 percent and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 3.9 percent in IVQ2017, increasing 1.0 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, US GDP grew at SAAR of 3.8 percent, increasing 0.9 percent in the quarter, and increasing 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.7 percent in IIQ2018, increasing 0.7 percent in the quarter, and increasing 3.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.1 percent, increasing 0.5 percent in the quarter, and increasing 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 1.3 percent in IVQ2018, increasing 0.3 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.9 percent, increasing 0.7 percent in the quarter and increasing 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 1.5 percent in IIQ2019, increasing 0.4 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.6 percent, increasing 0.6 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.4 percent in IVQ2019, increasing 0.6 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2020, US GDP contracted at SAAR of minus 5.0 percent, decreasing 1.3 percent in the quarter, and increasing 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2020, US GDP contracted at SAAR of minus 31.4 percent, decreasing 9.0 percent in the quarter and decreasing 9.0 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 33.4 percent in IIIQ2020, increasing 7.5 percent in the quarter, and decreasing 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2020, US GDP grew at SAAR of 4.1 percent, increasing 1.0 percent in the quarter and decreasing 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 6.4 percent in IQ2021, increasing 1.6 percent in the quarter and increasing 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier.
United Kingdom. In IQ2012, UK GDP increased 0.7 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, GDP fell 0.1 percent relative to IQ2012 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, GDP increased 1.2 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier. In IVQ2012, GDP fell 0.2 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Fiscal consolidation in an environment of weakening economic growth is much more challenging. GDP increased 1.4 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 0.5 percent in IQ2013 relative to IVQ2012. In IIQ2013, GDP increased 0.8 percent and 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.9 percent in IIIQ2013 and 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IVQ2013 and 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, GDP increased 0.8 percent and 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2014 and 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2014 and 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, GDP increased 0.6 percent and 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2015 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2016 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2016 and grew 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IVQ2016 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2017 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, GDP increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2017 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2018 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, GDP increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2018 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, GDP increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2019 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, GDP increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2019 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2020, GDP decreased 2.8 percent and decreased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP decreased 19.5 percent in IIQ2020 and decreased 21.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2020, GDP increased 16.9 percent and decreased 8.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.3 percent in IVQ2020 and decreased 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier.
Italy. GDP contracted 1.9 percent in IVQ2020 and contracted 6.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 15.9 percent in IIIQ2020 and contracted 5.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy contracted 13.0 percent in IIQ2020 and contracted 18.2 percent relative to a year earlier in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Italy’s GDP contracted 5.5 percent in IQ2020 and decreased 5.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy decreased 0.4 percent in IVQ2019 and decreased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2019 and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2019, Italy’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2019 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2018, the GDP of Italy increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2018 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2018, the GDP of Italy increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IQ2018 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, the GDP of Italy increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2017 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2017, the GDP of Italy increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, the GDP of Italy increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2016, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2015, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IVQ2014 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.1 percent in IQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IVQ2013 and fell 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2013 and fell 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.9 percent in IQ2013 and declined 2.9 percent relative to IQ2013. GDP had been growing during six consecutive quarters but at very low rates from IQ2010 to IIQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell in seven consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at increasingly higher rates of contraction from 0.5 percent in IIIQ2011 to 0.9 percent in IVQ2011, 1.2 percent in IQ2012, 0.7 percent in IIQ2012 and 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012. The pace of decline accelerated to minus 0.8 percent in IVQ2012 and minus 0.9 percent in IQ2013. GDP contracted cumulatively 5.4 percent in seven consecutive quarterly contractions from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at the annual equivalent rate of minus 3.1 percent. The year-on-year rate has fallen from 2.1 percent in IVQ2010 to minus 3.2 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.9 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.2 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.5 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.9 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.4 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.4 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.3 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IIIQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.3 percent in IVQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.8 percent in IIQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.7 percent in IIIQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.9 percent in IVQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.4 percent in IQ2018 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.0 percent in IIQ2018 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2018 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2018 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2019 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2019 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIIQ2019 relative to a year earlier and decreased 0.2 percent in IVQ2019 relative to a year earlier. GDP contracted 5.8 percent in IQ2020 relative to a year earlier and contracted 18.2 percent in IIQ2020 relative to a year earlier in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. GDP contracted 5.2 percent in IIIQ2020 relative to a year earlier and contracted 6.6 percent in IVQ2020 relative to a year earlier. Istat updated the national accounts of Italy, using 2015 base, with the release of Mar 3, 2021 (https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/254320). Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/), the GDP of Italy (using the base of 2015) in IVQ2020 of €401,776.8 million (https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/254320) is lower by 11.3 percent relative to €452,898.0 million in IQ2008 (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/). Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/), the GDP of Italy increased from €391,924.2 million in IQ1998 to €452,898.0 million in IQ2008 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.5 percent. The fiscal adjustment of Italy is significantly more difficult with the economy not growing especially on the prospects of increasing government revenue. The strategy is for reforms to improve productivity, facilitating future fiscal consolidation.
France. France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2012 and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IIQ2012 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2013 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2013 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2013 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2015, France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2015, the GDP of France increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France decreased 0.2 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, the GDP of France increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2017, the GDP of France increased 0.8 percent and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIIQ2017 and increased 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, the GDP of France increased 0.8 percent and increased 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IQ2018 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2018, the GDP of France increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2018 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2018, the GDP of France increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2019 and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2019, the GDP of France increased 0.6 percent and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2019 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2019, the GDP of France decreased 0.3 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 5.9 percent in IQ2020 and decreased 5.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2020, the GDP of France decreased 13.2 percent and decreased 18.4 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 18.5 percent in IIIQ2020 and decreased 3.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2020, the GDP of France contracted 1.5 percent and decreased 4.6 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IQ2021 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier.

Table V-3, Percentage Changes of GDP Quarter on Prior Quarter and on Same Quarter Year Earlier, ∆%

	IQ2012/IVQ2011	IQ2012/IQ2011
USA	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.2	2.7
Japan	QOQ: 1.4 SAAR: 5.7	3.0
China	1.9 AE 7.8	8.1
Euro Area	-0.2	-0.5
Germany	0.2	1.5 CA 1.0
France	0.1	0.7
Italy	-1.2	-2.4
United Kingdom	0.7	1.3
	IIQ2012/IQ2012	IIQ2012/IIQ2011
USA	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.7	2.4
Japan	QOQ: -0.9 SAAR: -3.6	2.8
China	2.1 AE 8.7	7.6
Euro Area	-0.3	-0.8
Germany	0.2	0.4 CA 0.9
France	-0.2	0.4
Italy	-0.7	-3.2
United Kingdom	-0.1	1.0
	IIIQ2012/ IIQ2012	IIIQ2012/ IIIQ2011
USA	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.5	2.5
Japan	QOQ: –0.4 SAAR: –1.5	-0.1
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.5
Euro Area	-0.1	-1.0
Germany	0.3	-0.1
France	0.2	0.3
Italy	-0.5	-3.3
United Kingdom	1.2	1.9
	IVQ2012/IIIQ2012	IVQ2012/IVQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.5	1.5
Japan	QOQ: -0.1 SAAR: -0.3	-0.1
China	2.0 AE 8.2	8.1
Euro Area	-0.4	-1.0
Germany	-0.4	-0.1
France	-0.1	0.0
Italy	-0.8	-3.2
United Kingdom	-0.2	1.5
	IQ2013/IVQ2012	IQ2013/IQ2012
United States	QOQ: 0.9 SAAR: 3.6	1.6
Japan	QOQ: 1.4 SAAR: 5.7	0.0
China	1.9 AE 7.8	7.9
Euro Area	-0.4	-1.2
Germany	-0.5	-1.5
France	0.0	-0.1
Italy	-0.9	-2.9
UK	0.5	1.4
	IIQ2013/IQ2013	IIQ2013/IIQ2012
USA	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.5	1.3
Japan	QOQ: 0.9 SAAR: 3.6	1.8
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.6
Euro Area	0.5	-0.4
Germany	1.1	0.8
France	0.7	0.8
Italy	0.0	-2.2
UK	0.8	2.4
	IIIQ2013/IIQ2013	III/Q2013/IIIQ2012
USA	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.2	1.9
Japan	QOQ: 1.0 SAAR: 3.9	3.0
China	2.1 AE 8.7	7.9
Euro Area	0.3	0.0
Germany	0.5	1.2
France	0.0	0.6
Italy	0.2	-1.5
UK	0.9	2.1
	IVQ2013/IIIQ2013	IVQ2013/IVQ2012
USA	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.2	2.6
Japan	QOQ: -0.1 SAAR: -0.5	3.1
China	1.6 AE 6.6	7.7
Euro Area	0.3	0.7
Germany	0.3	1.2
France	0.5	1.2
Italy	-0.2	-0.9
UK	0.6	2.9
	IQ2014/IVQ2013	IQ2014/IQ2013
USA	QOQ -0.3 SAAR -1.1	1.4
Japan	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.4	2.9
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.5
Euro Area	0.4	1.6
Germany	1.0	3.2
France	0.1	1.2
Italy	0.1	0.1
UK	0.8	3.2
	IIQ2014/IQ2014	IIQ2014/IIQ2013
USA	QOQ 1.4 SAAR 5.5	2.7
Japan	QOQ: -1.8 SAAR: -7.2	-0.1
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.6
Euro Area	0.2	1.2
Germany	0.0	1.4
France	0.1	0.7
Italy	0.0	0.1
UK	0.7	3.0
	IIIQ2014/IIQ2014	IIIQ2014/IIIQ2013
USA	QOQ: 1.2 SAAR: 5.0	3.1
Japan	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.4	-1.1
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.2
Euro Area	0.4	1.4
Germany	0.5	1.8
France	0.5	1.2
Italy	0.1	0.0
UK	0.6	2.7
	IVQ2014/IIIQ2014	IVQ2014/IVQ2013
USA	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.3	2.9
Japan	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.0	-0.5
China	1.7 AE 7.0	7.3
Euro Area	0.4	1.5
Germany	0.8	2.4
France	0.1	0.8
Italy	-0.2	0.0
UK	0.6	2.6
	IQ2015/IVQ2014	IQ2015/IQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.9 SAAR: 3.8	4.1
Japan	QOQ: 1.5 SAAR: 6.3	0.3
China	1.9 AE 7.8	7.1
Euro Area	0.7	1.8
Germany	-0.5	1.0
France	0.5	1.2
Italy	0.2	0.1
UK	0.5	2.4
	IIQ2015/IQ2015	IIQ2015/IIQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.7	3.5
Japan	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.4	2.4
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.1
Euro Area	0.4	2.0
Germany	0.7	1.5
France	0.0	1.1
Italy	0.4	0.5
UK	0.7	2.5
	IIIQ2015/IIQ2015	IIIQ2015/IIIQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.5	2.6
Japan	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.4	2.2
China	1.7 AE 7.0	7.0
Euro Area	0.4	2.0
Germany	0.4	1.5
France	0.3	0.9
Italy	0.2	0.6
UK	0.4	2.3
	IVQ2015/IIIQ2015	IVQ2015/IVQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.2 SAAR: 0.6	2.2
Japan	QOQ: -0.1 SAAR: -0.4	1.5
China	1.6 AE 6.6	6.9
Euro Area	0.5	2.0
Germany	0.5	1.9
France	0.1	1.0
Italy	0.5	1.4
UK	0.7	2.4
	IQ2016/IVQ2015	IQ2016/IQ2015
USA	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.3	1.8
Japan	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.9	1.0
China	1.6 AE 6.6	6.9
Euro Area	0.5	1.9
Germany	0.9	2.2
France	0.6	1.1
Italy	0.3	1.4
UK	0.2	2.0
	IIQ2016/IQ2016	IIQ2016/IIQ2015
USA	QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.3	1.4
Japan	QOQ: -0.2 SAAR: -0.9	0.5
China	1.8 AE 7.4	6.8
Euro Area	0.2	1.7
Germany	0.4	3.6
France	-0.2	0.9
Italy	0.2	1.3
UK	0.5	1.7
	IIIQ2016/IIQ2016	IIIQ2016/IIIQ2015
USA	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.2	1.6
Japan	QOQ: 0.2 SAAR: 0.8	0.5
China	1.7 AE 7.0	6.8
Euro Area	0.4	1.7
Germany	0.2	1.9
France	0.2	0.8
Italy	0.5	1.6
UK	0.3	1.6
	IVQ2016/IIIQ2016	IVQ2016/IVQ2015
USA	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.5	2.1
Japan	QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.2	1.0
China	1.6 AE 6.6	6.9
Euro Area	0.8	2.1
Germany	0.4	1.4
France	0.5	1.2
Italy	0.3	1.3
UK	0.6	1.6
	IQ2017/IVQ2016	IQ2017/IQ2016
USA	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.3	2.1
Japan	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.1	1.0
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.0
Euro Area	0.7	2.2
Germany	1.2	3.6
France	0.8	1.4
Italy	0.6	1.6
UK	0.5	1.9
	IIQ2017/IQ2017	IIQ2017/IIQ2016
USA	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.7	2.2
Japan	QOQ: 0.2 SAAR: 0.9	1.4
China	1.7 AE 7.0	7.0
Euro Area	0.7	2.7
Germany	0.7	1.2 CA 2.5
France	0.8	2.4
Italy	0.4	1.8
UK	0.3	1.7
	IIIQ2017/IIQ2017	IIIQ2017/IIIQ2016
USA	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.9	2.4
Japan	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.2	2.1
China	1.6 AE 6.6	6.9
Euro Area	0.8	3.0
Germany	0.9	2.7 CA 3.1
France	0.7	2.8
Italy	0.4	1.7
UK	0.4	1.8
	IVQ2017/IIIQ2017	IVQ2017/IVQ2016
USA	QOQ: 1.0 SAAR: 3.9	2.7
Japan	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.7	2.2
China	1.6 AE 6.6	6.8
Euro Area	0.9	3.1
Germany	0.8	3.0 CA 3.6
France	0.8	3.1
Italy	0.6	1.9
UK	0.4	1.6
	IQ2018/IVQ2017	IQ2018/IQ2017
USA	QOQ: 0.9 SAAR: 3.8	3.1
Japan	QOQ: 0.0 SAAR: 0.0	1.4
China	1.9 AE 7.8	6.9
Euro Area	0.1	2.5
Germany	-0.2	1.5 CA 2.2
France	0.0	2.4
Italy	0.0	1.4
UK	0.1	1.1
	IIQ2018/IQ2018	IIQ2018/IIQ2017
USA	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.7	3.3
Japan	QOQ: 0.0 SAAR: 0.0	1.2
China	1.5 AE 6.1	6.9
Euro Area	0.5	2.2
Germany	0.5	2.4 CA 2.0
France	0.4	1.9
Italy	0.1	1.0
UK	0.4	1.2
	IIIQ2018/IIQ2018	IIIQ2018/IIIQ2017
USA	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.1	3.1
Japan	QOQ -0.7 SAAR: -2.7	-0.2
China	1.4 AE 5.7	6.7
Euro Area	0.1	1.6
Germany	-0.3	0.7 CA 0.7
France	0.4	1.7
Italy	0.0	0.6
UK	0.6	1.4
	IVQ2018/IIIQ2018	IVQ2018/IVQ2017
USA	QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.3	2.5
Japan	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 1.8	-0.2
China	1.6 AE 6.6	6.5
Euro Area	0.5	1.2
Germany	0.3	0.5 CA 0.3
France	0.6	1.5
Italy	0.2	0.3
UK	0.2	1.2
	IQ2019/IV2018	IQ2019/IQ2018
USA	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.9	2.3
Japan	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.4	0.0
China	1.8 AE 7.4	6.3
Euro Area	0.5	1.6
Germany	0.6	1.0 CA 1.1
France	0.6	2.1
Italy	0.1	0.4
UK	0.6	1.7
	IIQ2019/IQ2019	IIQ2019/IIQ2018
USA	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.5	2.0
Japan	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.5	0.4
China	1.0 AE 4.1	6.0
Euro Area	0.2	1.3
Germany	-0.5	-0.3 CA 0.1
France	0.6	2.2
Italy	0.1	0.5
UK	0.1	1.5
	IIIQ2019/IIQ2019	IIIQ2019/IIIQ2018
USA	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR 2.6	2.1
Japan	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.5	1.1
China	1.3 AE 5.3	5.9
Euro Area	0.2	1.4
Germany	0.3	1.2 CA 0.7
France	0.2	2.0
Italy	0.0	0.5
UK	0.5	1.4
	IVQ2019/IIIQ2019	IVQ2019/IVQ2018
USA	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.4	2.3
Japan	QOQ: -1.9 SAAR: -7.4	-1.4
China	1.6 AE 6.6	5.8
Euro Area	0.1	1.0
Germany	0.0	0.2 CA 0.4
France	-0.3	1.0
Italy	-0.4	-0.2
UK	0.0	1.2
	IQ2020/IVQ2019	IQ2020/IQ2019
USA	QOQ: -1.3 SAAR: -5.0	0.3
Japan	QOQ: -0.5 SAAR: -2.0	-2.1
China	-9.3 (-32.3)	-6.8
Euro Area	-3.8	-3.3
Germany	-2.0	-1.8 CA -2.2
France	-5.9	-5.5
Italy	-5.5	-5.8
UK	-2.8	-2.2
	IIQ2020/IQ2020	IIQ2020/IIQ2019
USA	QOQ: -9.1 SAAR: -31.7	-9.1
Japan	QOQ: -8.1 SAAR: -28.6	-10.1
China	10.1 (46.9)	3.2
Euro Area	-11.6	-14.6
Germany	-9.7	-11.3 CA -11.3
France	-13.2	-18.4
Italy	-13.0	-18.2
UK	-19.5	-21.4
	IIIQ2020/IIQ2020	IIIQ2020/IIIQ2019
USA	QOQ: 7.5 SAAR: 33.4	-2.8
Japan	QOQ: 5.3 SAAR: 22.9	-5.6
China	3.1 (13.0)	4.9
Euro Area	12.5	-4.2
Germany	8.7	-3.7 CA -3.8
France	18.5	-3.5
Italy	15.9	-5.2
UK	16.9	-8.5
	IVQ2020/IIIQ2020	IVQ2020/IVQ2019
USA	QOQ: 1.0 SAAR: 4.3	-2.4
Japan	QOQ: 2.8 SAAR: 11.7	-1.1
China	3.2 (13.4)	6.5
Euro Area	-0.7	-4.9
Germany	0.5	-2.3 CA -3.3
France	-1.5	-4.6
Italy	-1.9	-6.6
UK	1.3	-7.3
	IQ2021/IVQ2020	IQ2021/IQ2020
USA	QOQ: 1.6 SAAR: 6.4	0.4
Japan	QOQ: -1.0 SAAR: -3.9	-1.6
China	0.6 (2.4)	18.3
Germany	-1.8	-3.4 CA -3.1
France	-0.1	1.2

QOQ: quarter relative to prior quarter; SAAR: seasonally adjusted annual rate

AE: annual equivalent

Source: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.bls.gov/bls/other.htm https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/related-sites.html

The National Bureau of Statistics of China released a preliminary estimate of growth of GDP of 18.3 percent in IQ2021 relative to IQ20120 and 10.3 percent relative to IQ2019, as shown in Table V-3C. GDP grew 0.6 percent in IQ2021 at the annual equivalent rate of 7.4 percent. Euro area GDP contracted 0.6 percent in IQ2021 and decreased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP contracted 1.7 percent in IQ2021 and decreased 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France grew 0.4 percent in IQ2021 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IQ2020 and decreased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Final estimates will be provided in Table V-3 as they are released.

Table V-3C, Flash Estimates of Percentage Changes of GDP Quarter on Prior Quarter and on Same Quarter Year Earlier, ∆%

	IQ2021/IVQ2020	IQ2021/IQ2020
China	0.6 (AE 7.4)	18.3
Japan	-1.3	-1.9
Euro Area	-0.6	-1.8
Germany	-1.7	-3.0
France	0.4	1.5
Italy	-0.4	-1.4
UK	-1.5	-6.1

QOQ: Quarter relative to prior quarter; SAAR: seasonally adjusted annual rate; AE: Annual Equivalent

Source: Eurostat: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat Country Statistical Agencies http://www.bls.gov/bls/other.htm https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/related-sites.html

Table V-4 provides two types of data: growth of exports and imports in the latest available months and in the past 12 months; and contributions of net trade (exports less imports) to growth of real GDP.

Japan. Japan provides the most worrisome data (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/global-decline-of-values-of-financial.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/07/valuation-of-risk-financial-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/fluctuating-financial-asset-valuations.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/dollar-revaluation-squeezing-corporate.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/patience-on-interest-rate-increases.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/monetary-policy-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/valuation-risks-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/interest-rate-risks-world-inflation.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/global-financial-risk-world-inflation.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations_8763.html http://cmpass ocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/paring-quantitative-easing-policy-and_4699.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/thirty-one-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/12/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_24.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/11/contraction-of-united-states-real_25.html and for GDP http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what_13.html). In Apr 2021, Japan’s exports increased 38.0 percent in 12 months while imports increased 12.8 percent. The second part of Table V-4 shows that net trade added 0.7 percent in IQ2012, deducting 1.9 percent in IIQ2012. Net trade deducted 1.9 percent in IIIQ2012. Net traded deducted 0.3 percent in IVQ2012. Net trade added 1.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2013 but deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIQ2013, deducting 1.3 percentage points in IIIQ2013 and 2.1 percentage points in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 0.9 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2014. Net trade added 4.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2014 and deducted 0.3 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 1.8 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2014. Net trade contributed 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2015 and deducted 0.8-percentage points in IIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.5 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015 and added 1.4 percentage points in IQ2016. Net trade contributed 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade added 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2016 and contributed 1.2 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade contributed 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017 and deducted 0.9 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade contributed 1.9 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017 and deducted 0.0 percentage-point in IVQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018 and contributed 0.0 percentage points in IIQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.9 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018 and deducted 1.6 percentage points in IVQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.9 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2019 with export contraction deducting 1.5 percent and import contraction contributing 2.4 percent. Net trade deducted 1.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2019. Net trade deducted 1.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade contributed 2.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 1.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2020 with export contraction deducting 3.3 percentage points and import contraction adding 2.1 percentage points. Net trade deducted 10.2 percentage points in IIQ2020 with export contraction deducting 10.7 percentage points and imports contributing 0.5 percentage points. Net trade contributed 11.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2020 with export growth contributing 4.7 percentage points and import contraction contribution 6.5 percentage points. Net trade contributed 4.2 percentage points to GDP in IVQ2020 with export growth contributing 7.3 percentage points and imports deducting 3.1 percentage points. Net trade deducted 0.9 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2021 with exports contributing 1.4 percent and imports deducting 2.4 percent. Private consumption assumed the role of driver of Japan’s economic growth but should moderate as in most mature economies.
China. The exports of China increased 32.3 percent in Apr 2021 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 43.1 percent.

Germany. Germany’s exports increased 0.3 percent in the month of Apr 2021 and increased 47.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2021. Germany’s imports decreased 1.7 percent in the month of Apr 2021 and increased 33.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2021. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to growth of GDP in IQ2012, contributed 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2012, contributed 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2012, deducted 0.5 percentage points in IVQ2012, deducted 0.3 percentage points in IQ2013 and deducted 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded deducted 0.0 percentage points from Germany’s GDP growth in IIIQ2013 and added 0.9 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2014 and added 0.7 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points in IVQ2015 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade added 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2017. Net trade added 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018 and deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2019. Net traded added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 1.2 percentage points in IQ2020 and deducted 3.3 percentage points in IIQ2020. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points in IIIQ2020. Net trade contributed 0.9 percentage points in IVQ2020. Net trade contributed 0.9 percentage points in IQ2021.
United Kingdom. Net trade contributed 0.7 percentage points in IIQ2013. In IIIQ2013, net trade deducted 1.7 percentage points from UK growth. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to UK value added in IVQ2013. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to UK value added in IQ2014 and 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2014 and added 0.0 percentage points in IVQ2014. Net traded deducted 0.4 percentage points from growth in IQ2015. Net trade added 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.1-percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 1.8 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade added 1.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2016. Net trade added 0.33 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017 and contributed 0.01 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.11 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.28 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade added 0.42 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.48 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.45 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.29 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2018. Net trade deducted 2.50 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2019. Net trade contributed 2.90 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2019. Net trade contributed 1.12 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade contributed 2.21 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 2.46 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2020. Net trade contributed 3.34 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2020. Net trade deducted 4.38 percentage points from GDP in IIIQ2020. Net trade deducted 1.44 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2020.
France. France’s exports increased 1.6 percent in Apr 2021 while imports increased 1.6 percent. France’s exports increased 70.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2021 and imports increased 65.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Net traded added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IIIQ2012 and 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IQ2013 and added 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2013, deducting 1.7 percentage points in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IVQ2013 and deducted 0.1 percentage points in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IIQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to France’s GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.6 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015 and deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.3 percentage points to GDP in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP in IIIQ2016 and added 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP in IQ2017 and added 0.9 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade added 0.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade added 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to GDP in IVQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP in IQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ219. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points in IQ2020. Net trade deducted 1.8 percentage points in IIQ2020. Net trade contributed 0.9 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2020. Net trade contributed 0.7 percentage points in IVQ2020. Net trade deducted 0.4 percentage points in IQ2021.
United States. US exports increased 1.1 percent in Apr 2021 and goods exports increased 12.6 percent in Jan-Apr 2021 relative to a year earlier. Imports decreased 1.4 percent in Apr 2021 and goods imports increased 17.4 percent in Jan-Apr 2021 relative to a year earlier. Net trade added 0.27 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2012 and deducted 0.08 percentage points in IIIQ2012, adding 0.57 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade added 0.40 percentage points to US GDP growth in IQ2013 and deducted 0.33 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded subtracted 0.14 percentage points from US GDP growth in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 1.23 percentage points to US GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 1.11 percentage points from US GDP growth in IQ2014 and deducted 0.46 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade added 0.10 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2014. Net trade deducted 1.05 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 1.38 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.25 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.97 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.22 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.05 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.22 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade added 0.08 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade deducted 1.13 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2016. Net trade added 0.36 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.39 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2017. Net trade added 0.08 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.49 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade added 0.29 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018. Net trade added 0.25 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.83 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018, deducting 0.27 percentage points in IVQ2018. Net trade added 0.55 percentage points in IQ2019, deducting 0.79 percentage points in IIQ2019. Net trade added 0.04 percentage points in IIIQ2019. Net trade added 1.52 percentage points in IVQ2019, adding 1.13 percentage points in IQ2020. Net trade added 0.62 percentage points in IIQ2020, deducting 3.21 percentage points in IIIQ2020. Net trade deducted 1.53 percentage points in IVQ2020. Net trade deducted 1.2 percentage points in IQ2021.

Industrial production increased 0.7 percent in Apr 2021 and increased 2.4 percent in Mar 2021 after decreasing 3.5 percent in Mar 2021, with all data seasonally adjusted, as shown in Table I-1. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System conducted the annual revision of industrial production released on Mar 27, 2019 (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/revisions/Current/DefaultRev.htm):

“The Federal Reserve has revised its index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization.[1] On net, the revisions to the growth rates for total IP for recent years were small and positive, with the estimates for 2016 and 2017 a bit higher and the estimates for 2015 and 2018 slightly lower.[2] Total IP is still reported to have increased from the end of the recession in mid-2009 through late 2014 before declining in 2015 and rebounding in mid-2016. Subsequently, the index advanced around 7 1/2 percent over 2017 and 2018.

Capacity for total industry expanded modestly in each year from 2015 to 2017 before advancing 1 1/2 percent in 2018; it is expected to advance about 2 percent in 2019. Revisions for recent years were very small and showed slightly less expansion in most years relative to earlier reports.

In the fourth quarter of 2018, capacity utilization for total industry stood at 79.4 percent, about 3/4 percentage point above its previous estimate and about 1/2 percentage point below its long-run (1972–2018) average. The utilization rate in 2017 is also higher than its previous estimate.”

The report of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System states (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/default.htm):

“Total industrial production increased 0.7 percent in April. The indexes for mining and utilities increased 0.7 percent and 2.6 percent, respectively; the index for manufacturing rose 0.4 percent despite a drop in motor vehicle assemblies that principally resulted from shortages of semiconductors. An important contributor to the gain in factory output was the return to operation of plants that were damaged by February's severe weather in the south central region of the country and had remained offline in March. The weather-induced drop in total industrial production in February and the subsequent rebound in March are now estimated to have been larger than reported last month. At 106.3 percent of its 2012 average in April, total industrial production has moved up 16.5 percent from its level in April 2020 (the trough of the pandemic), but it was 2.7 percent below its pre-pandemic (February 2020) level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector rose 0.5 percentage point in April to 74.9 percent, a rate that is 4.7 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2020) average.” In the six months ending in Apr 2021, United States national industrial production accumulated change of 2.4 percent at the annual equivalent rate of 4.9 percent, which is lower than growth of 16.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2021. Excluding decline of 3.5 percent in Feb 2021, growth in the remaining five months from Nov 2020 to Apr 2021 accumulated to 6.1 percent or 15.4 percent annual equivalent. Industrial production increased 2.4 percent in one of the past six months, 1.1 percent in one month, 0.9 percent in two months, 0.7 percent in one month and minus 3.5 percent in one month. Industrial production decreased at annual equivalent 2.0 percent in the most recent quarter from Feb 2021 to Apr 2021 and increased at 12.2 percent annual equivalent in the prior quarter from Nov 2020 to Jan 2021. Business equipment accumulated change of 5.5 percent in the six months from Nov 2020 to Apr 2021, at the annual equivalent rate of 11.3 percent, which is lower than growth of 40.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2021. The Fed analyzes capacity utilization of total industry in its report (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm): ” Capacity utilization for the industrial sector rose 0.5 percentage point in April to 74.9 percent, a rate that is 4.7 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2020) average.” United States industry apparently decelerated to a lower growth rate followed by possible acceleration, weakening growth in past months and deep contraction in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. There is recent recovery. Manufacturing decreased 22.3 percent from the peak in Jun 2007 to the trough in Apr 2009 and increased 18.3 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Dec 2019. Manufacturing increased 15.4 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Dec 2020. Manufacturing in Dec 2020 is lower by 10.3 percent relative to the peak in Jun 2007. Manufacturing increased 18.4 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Apr 2021. Manufacturing in Apr 2021 is 7.9 percent below the peak in Jun 2007. US economic growth has been at only 2.0 percent on average in the cyclical expansion in the 47 quarters from IIIQ2009 to IQ2021 and in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Boskin (2010Sep) measures that the US economy grew at 6.2 percent in the first four quarters and 4.5 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the second quarter of 1975; and at 7.7 percent in the first four quarters and 5.8 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the first quarter of 1983 (Professor Michael J. Boskin, Summer of Discontent, Wall Street Journal, Sep 2, 2010 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882304575465462926649950.html). There are new calculations using the revision of US GDP and personal income data since 1929 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) and the second estimate of GDP for IQ2021 (https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2021-05/gdp1q21_2nd.pdf). The average of 7.7 percent in the first four quarters of major cyclical expansions is in contrast with the rate of growth in the first four quarters of the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010 of only 2.8 percent obtained by dividing GDP of $15,557.3 billion in IIQ2010 by GDP of $15,134.1 billion in IIQ2009 {[($15,557.3/$15,134.1) -1]100 = 2.8%], or accumulating the quarter on quarter growth rates (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/05/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-64-percent-in_29.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/05/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-64-percent-in.html). The expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1986 was at the average annual growth rate of 5.7 percent, 5.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1986, 5.1 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1986, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1989, 4.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1989, 4.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1989, 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1989. 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1990, 4.4 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1990, 4.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1990, 4.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1990, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1992, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1994, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1994, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1994 and at 7.9 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/05/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-64-percent-in_29.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/05/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-64-percent-in.html). The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dates a contraction of the US from IQ1990 (Jul) to IQ1991 (Mar) (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html). The expansion lasted until another contraction beginning in IQ2001 (Mar). US GDP contracted 1.3 percent from the pre-recession peak of $8983.9 billion of chained 2009 dollars in IIIQ1990 to the trough of $8865.6 billion in IQ1991 (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IQ2021 and in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event would have accumulated to 47.9 percent. GDP in IVQ2020 would be $23,318.7 billion (in constant dollars of 2012) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $4230.6 billion than actual $19,088.1 billion. There are more than four trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 28.1 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 16.2 percent of the effective labor force with the largest part originating in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/06/increase-in-may-2021-of-nonfarm-payroll.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/05/increase-in-apr-2021-of-nonfarm-payroll.html). Unemployment is decreasing while employment is increasing in initial adjustment of the lockdown of economic activity in the global recession resulting from the COVID-19 event (https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-may-2021.htm). US GDP in IQ2021 is 18.1 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $15,762.0 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $19,088.1 billion in IQ2021 or 21.1 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.5 percent. Professor John H. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. Cochrane (2016May02) measures GDP growth in the US at average 3.5 percent per year from 1950 to 2000 and only at 1.76 percent per year from 2000 to 2015 with only at 2.0 percent annual equivalent in the current expansion. Cochrane (2016May02) proposes drastic changes in regulation and legal obstacles to private economic activity. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 3.1 percent per year from Apr 1919 to Apr 2021. Growth at 3.1 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 162.7065 in Apr 2021. The actual index NSA in Apr 2021 is 103.3965 which is 36.5 percent below trend. The underperformance of manufacturing in Mar-Aug 2020 originates partly in the earlier global recession augmented by the current global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19. Manufacturing grew at the average annual rate of 3.3 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2006. Growth at 3.3 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 166.9656 in Apr 2021. The actual index NSA in Apr 2021 is 103.3965, which is 38.1 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 1.8 percent between Dec 1986 and Apr 2021. Using trend growth of 1.8 percent per year, the index would increase to 137.3810 in Apr 2021. The output of manufacturing at 103.3965 in Apr 2021 is 24.7 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Using the NAICS (North American Industry Classification System), manufacturing output fell from the high of 110.5147 in Jun 2007 to the low of 86.3800 in Apr 2009 or 21.8 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased from 86.3800 in Apr 2009 to 104.9873 in Apr 2021 or 21.5 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased at the annual equivalent rate of 3.5 percent from Dec 1986 to Dec 2006. Growth at 3.5 percent would increase the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 168.7632 in Apr 2021. The NAICS index at 104.9873 in Apr 2021 is 37.8 below trend. The NAICS manufacturing output index grew at 1.7 percent annual equivalent from Dec 1999 to Dec 2006. Growth at 1.7 percent would raise the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 133.5630 in Apr 2021. The NAICS index at 104.9873 in Apr 2021 is 21.4 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Table I-13 provides national income by industry without capital consumption adjustment (WCCA). “Private industries” or economic activities have share of 87.6 percent in IVQ2020. Most of US national income is in the form of services. In May 2021, there were 145.385 million nonfarm jobs NSA in the US, according to estimates of the establishment survey of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm Table B-1). Total private jobs of 123.413 million NSA in May 2021 accounted for 84.9 percent of total nonfarm jobs of 145.385 million, of which 12.269 million, or 9.9 percent of total private jobs and 8.4 percent of total nonfarm jobs, were in manufacturing. Private service-providing jobs were 103.045 million NSA in May 2021, or 70.9 percent of total nonfarm jobs and 83.5 percent of total private-sector jobs. Manufacturing has share of 9.2 percent in US national income in IVQ2020 and durable goods 5.5 percent, as shown in Table I-13. Most income in the US originates in services. Subsidies and similar measures designed to increase manufacturing jobs will not increase economic growth and employment and may actually reduce growth by diverting resources away from currently employment-creating activities because of the drain of taxation.

Table V-4, Growth of Trade and Contributions of Net Trade to GDP Growth, ∆% and % Points

	Exports M ∆%	Exports 12 M ∆%	Imports M ∆%	Imports 12 M ∆%
USA	1.1 Apr SA	12.6 Jan-Apr NSA	-1.4 Apr SA	17.4 Jan-Apr NSA
Japan		Apr 2021 38.0 Mar 2021 16.1 Feb 2021 -4.5 Jan 2021 6.4 Dec 2020 2.0 Nov 2020 -4.2 Oct 2020 -0.2 Sep 2020 -4.9 Aug 2020 -14.8 Jul 2020 -19.2 Jun 2020 -26.2 May 2020 -28.3 Apr 2020 -21.9 Mar 2020 -11.7 Feb 2020 -1.0 Jan 2020 -2.6 Dec 2019 -6.3 Nov 2019 -7.9 Oct 2019 -9.2 Sep 2019 -5.2 Aug 2019 -8.2 Jul 2019 -1.6 Jun 2019 -6.7 May 2019 -7.8 Apr 2019 -2.4 Mar 2019 -2.4 Feb 2019 -1.2 Jan 2019 -8.4 Dec 2018 -3.8 Nov 2018 0.1 Oct 2018 8.2 Sep 2018 -1.2 Aug 2018 6.6 Jul 2018 3.9 Jun 2018 6.7 May 2018 8.1 Apr 2018 7.8 Mar 2018 2.1 Feb 2018 1.8 Jan 2018 12.2 Dec 2017 9.3 Nov 2017 16.2 Oct 2017 14.0 Sep 2017 14.1 Aug 2017 18.1 Jul 2017 13.4 Jun 2017 9.7 May 2017 14.9 Apr 2017 7.5 Mar 2017 12.0 Feb 2017 11.3 Jan 2017 1.3 Dec 2016 5.4 Nov 2016 -0.4 Oct 2016 -10.3 Sep 2016 -6.9 Aug 2016 9.6 Jul 2016 -14.0 Jun 2016 -7.8 May 2016 -11.3 Apr 2016 -10.1 Mar 2016 -6.8 Feb 2016 -4.0 Jan 2016 -12.9 Dec 2015 -8.0 Nov 2015 -3.3 Oct 2015 -2.1 Sep 2015 0.6 Aug 3.1 Jul 2015 7.6 Jun 2015 9.5 May 2015 2.4 Apr 8.0 Mar 8.5 Feb 2.4 Jan 17.0 Dec 12.9 Nov 4.9 Oct 9.6 Sep 6.9 Aug -1.3 Jul 3.9 Jun -2.0 May 2014 -2.7 Apr 2014 5.1 Mar 2014 1.8 Feb 2014 9.5 Jan 2014 9.5 Dec 2013 15.3 Nov 2013 18.4 Oct 2013 18.6 Sep 2013 11.5 Aug 2013 14.7 Jul 2013 12.2 Jun 2013 7.4 May 2013 10.1 Apr 2013 3.8 Mar 2013 1.1 Feb 2013 -2.9 Jan 2013 6.4 Dec -5.8 Nov -4.1 Oct -6.5 Sep -10.3 Aug -5.8 Jul -8.1		Apr 2021 12.8 Mar 2021 5.8 Feb 2021 11.8 Jan 2021 -9.5 Dec 2020 -11.6 Nov 2020 -11.1 Oct 2020 -13.3 Sep 2020 -17.2 Aug 2020 -20.8 Jul 2020 -22.3 Jun 2020 -14.4 May 2020 -26.2 Apr 2020 -7.2 Mar 2020 -5.0 Feb 2020 -14.0 Jan 2020 -3.6 Dec 2019 -4.9 Nov 2019 -15.7 Oct 2019 -14.8 Sep 2019 -1.5 Aug 2019 -12.0 Jul 2019 -1.2 Jun 2019 -5.2 May 2019 -1.5 Apr 2019 6.4 Mar 2019 1.1 Feb 2019 -6.7 Jan 2019 -0.6 Dec 2018 1.9 Nov 2018 12.5 Oct 2018 19.9 Sep 2018 7.0 Aug 2018 15.4 Jul 2018 14.6 Jun 2018 2.5 May 2018 14.0 Apr 2018 5.9 Mar 2018 -0.6 Feb 2018 16.6 Jan 2018 7.9 Dec 2017 14.9 Nov 2017 17.2 Oct 2017 18.9 Sep 2017 12.0 Aug 2017 15.2 Jul 2017 16.3 Jun 2017 15.5 May 2017 17.8 Apr 2017 15.1 Mar 2017 15.8 Feb 2017 1.2 Jan 2017 8.5 Dec 2016 -2.6 Nov 2016 -8.8 Oct 2016 -16.5 Sep 2016 -16.3 Aug 2016 -17.3 Jul 2016 -24.7 Jun 2016 -18.8 May 2016 -13.8 Apr 2016 -23.3 Mar 2016 -14.9 Feb 2016 -14.2 Jan 2016 -18.0 Dec 2015 -18.0 Nov 2015 -10.2 Oct 2015 -13.4 Sep 2015 -11.1 Aug -3.1 Jul 2015 -3.2 Jun 2015 -2.9 May 2015 -8.7 Apr -4.2 Mar -14.5 Feb -3.6 Jan -9.0 Dec 1.9 Nov -1.7 Oct 2.7 Sep 6.2 Aug -1.5 Jul 2.3 Jun 8.4 May 2014 -3.6 Apr 2013 3.4 Mar 2014 18.1 Feb 2014 9.0 Jan 2014 25.0 Dec 2013 24.7 Nov 2013 21.1 Oct 2013 26.1 Sep 2013 16.5 Aug 2013 16.0 Jul 2013 19.6 Jun 2013 11.8 May 2013 10.0 Apr 2013 9.4 Mar 2013 5.5 Feb 2013 7.3 Jan 2013 7.3 Dec 1.9 Nov 0.8 Oct -1.6 Sep 4.1 Aug -5.4 Jul 2.1
China	Jan-Dec 3.6 Jan-Dec 0.5 Jan-Dec 9.9 Jan-Dec 2017 7.9 Jan-Dec 2016 -7.7 Jan-Dec 2015 -2.8	2021 Apr 32.3 Mar 30.6 Jan-Feb 60.6 2020 Dec 18.1 Nov 21.1 Oct 11.4 Sep 9.9 Aug 9.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 0.5 May -3.3 Apr 8.2 Mar -2.9 Jan-Feb -17.2 2019 Dec 7.6 Nov -1.1 Oct -0.9 Sep -3.2 Aug -1.0 Jul 3.3 Jun -1.3 May 1.1 Apr -2.7 Mar 14.2 Feb -20.7 Jan 9.3 2018 Dec -4.4 Nov 5.4 Oct 15.6 Sep 14.5 Aug 9.8 Jul 12.2 Jun 11.3 May 12.6 Apr 12.9 Mar -2.7 Feb 44.5 Jan 11.1 2017 Dec 10.9 Nov 12.3 Oct 6.9 Sep 8.1 Aug 5.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 11.3 May 8.7 Apr 8.0 Mar 16.4 Feb -1.3 Jan 7.9 2016 Dec 3.1 Nov 0.1 Oct -7.3 Sep -10.0 Aug -2.8 Jul -4.4 Jun -4.8 May -4.1 Apr -1.8 Mar 11.5 Feb -25.4 Jan -11.2 2015 -1.4 Dec -6.8 Nov -6.9 Oct -3.7 Sep -5.5 Aug -8.3 Jul 2.8 Jun -2.5 May -6.4 Apr -15.0 Mar 48.3 Feb -3.3 Jan 2014 9.7 Dec 4.7 Nov 11.6 Oct 15.3 Sep 9.4 Aug 14.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 7.0 May 0.9 Apr -6.6 Mar -18.1 Feb 10.6 Jan 2013 4.3 Dec 12.7 Nov 5.6 Oct -0.3 Sep 7.2 Aug 5.1 Jul -3.1 Jun 1.0 May 14.7 Apr 10.0 Mar 21.8 Feb 25.0 Jan	Jan-Dec -1.1 Jan-Dec -2.8 Jan-Dec 15.8 Jan-Dec 2017 15.9 Jan-Dec 2016 -5.5 Jan-Dec 2015 -14.1	2021 Apr 43.1 Mar 38.1 Jan-Feb 22.2 2020 Dec 6.5 Nov 4.5 Oct 4.7 Sep 13.2 Aug -2.1 Jul 1.4 Jun 2.7 May -16.7 Apr -10.2 Mar -1.1 Jan-Feb -4.0 2019 Dec 16.3 Nov 0.3 Oct -6.4 Sep -8.5 Aug -5.6 Jul -5.3 Jun -7.3 May -8.5 Apr 4.0 Mar -7.6 Feb -5.2 Jan -1.5 2018 Dec -7.6 Nov 3.0 Oct 21.4 Sep 14.3 Aug 20.0 Jul 27.3 Jun 14.1 May 26.0 Apr 21.5 Mar 14.4 Feb 6.3 Jan 36.9 2017 Dec 4.5 Nov 17.7 Oct 17.2 Sep 18.7 Aug 13.3 Jul 11.0 Jun 17.2 May 14.8 Apr 11.9 Mar 20.3 Feb 38.1 Jan 16.7 2016 Dec -7.7 Nov 6.7 Oct -1.4 Sep -1.9 Aug 1.5 Jul -12.5 Jun -2.8 May -0.4 Apr -10.6 Mar -7.6 Feb -13.8 Jan -18.8 2015 -7.6 Dec -8.7 Nov -18.8 Oct -20.4 Sep -13.8 Aug -8.1 Jul -6.1 Jun -17.6 May -12.7 Mar -20.5 Feb -19.9 Jan 2014 -2.4 Dec -6.7 Nov 4.6 Oct 7.0 Sep -2.4 Aug -1.6 Jul 5.5 Jun -1.6 May -0.8 Apr -11.3 Mar 10.1 Feb 10.0 Jan 2013 8.3 Dec 5.3 Nov 7.6 Oct 7.4 Sep 7.0 Aug 10.9 Jul -0.7 Jun -0.3 May 16.8 Apr 14.1 Mar -15.2 Feb 28.8 Jan
Euro Area	8.9 12-M Mar 2021	-0.6 Jan-Mar 2021	19.2 12-M Mar 2021	0.3 Jan-Mar 2021
Germany	0.3 Apr CSA	47.7 Apr	-1.7 Apr CSA	33.2 Apr
France Apr	1.6	70.4	1.6	65.1
Italy Mar	3.2	28.1	6.0	35.1
UK	2.5 Apr	-16.4	0.4 Apr	-13.9
Net Trade % Points GDP Growth	Points
USA	IQ2021 -1.20 IVQ2020 -1.53 IIIQ2020 -3.21 IIQ2020 0.62 IQ2020 1.13 IVQ2019 1.52 IIIQ2019 0.04 IIQ2019 -0.79 IQ2019 0.55 IVQ 2018 -0.27 IIIQ2018 -1.83 IIQ2018 0.25 IQ2018 0.29 IVQ2017 -0.49 IIIQ2017 0.08 IIQ2017 -0.39 IQ2017 0.36 IVQ2016 -1.13 IIIQ2016 0.08 IIQ2016 0.22 IQ2016 -0.05 IVQ2015 -0.22 IIIQ2015 -0.97 IIQ2015 -0.25 IQ2015 -1.38 IVQ2014 -1.05 IIIQ2014 0.10 IIQ2014 -0.46 IQ2014 -1.11 IVQ2013 1.23 IIIQ2013 -0.14 IIQ2013 -0.33 IQ2013 0.40 IVQ2012 +0.57 IIIQ2012 -0.08 IIQ2012 0.27 IQ2012 0.00
Japan	0.7 IQ2012 -1.9 IIQ2012 -1.9 IIIQ2012 -0.3 IVQ2012 1.5 IQ2013 -0.2 IIQ2013 -1.3 IIIQ2013 -2.1 IVQ2013 -0.9 IQ2014 4.2 IIQ2014 -0.3 IIIQ2014 1.8 IVQ2014 0.4 IQ2015 -0.8 IIQ2015 -0.5 IIIQ2015 0.0 IVQ2015 1.4 IQ2016 0.3 IIQ2016 1.1 IIIQ2016 1.2 IVQ2016 0.6 IQ2017 -0.9 IIQ2017 1.9 IIIQ2017 0.0 IVQ2017 0.3 IQ2018 0.0 IIQ2018 -0.9 IIIQ2018 -1.6 IVQ2018 0.9 IQ2019 -1.2 IIQ2019 -1.3 IIIQ2019 2.3 IVQ2019 -1.2 IQ2020 -10.2 IIQ2020 11.2 IIIQ2020 4.2 IVQQ2020 -0.9 IQ2021
Germany	IQ2012 0.8 IIQ2012 0.3 IIIQ2012 0.4 IVQ2012 -0.5 IQ2013 -0.3 IIQ2013 -0.3 IIIQ2013 0.0 IVQ2013 0.9 IQ2014 -0.1 IIQ2014 -0.3 IIIQ2014 0.7 IVQ2014 0.1 IQ2015 -0.4 IIQ2015 0.6 IIIQ2015 -0.4 IVQ2015 -0.6 IQ2016 -0.4 IIQ2016 0.7 IIIQ2016 -0.2 IVQ2016 -0.7 IQ2017 0.7 IIQ2017 -0.2 IIIQ2017 0.5 IVQ2017 0.1 IQ2018 0.1 IIQ2018 -0.2 IIIQ2018 -1.0 IVQ2018 -0.2 IQ2019 0.3 IIQ2019 -0.6 IIIQ2019 0.6 IVQ2019 -0.3 IQ2020 -1.2 IIQ2020 -3.3 IIIQ2020 -0.1 IVQ2020 0.9 IQ2021 0.9
France	0.1 IIIQ2012 0.1 IVQ2012 -0.1 IQ2013 0.3 IIQ2013 -1.7 IIIQ2013 0.1 IVQ2013 -0.1 IQ2014 -0.2 IIQ2014 -0.2 IIIQ2014 0.2 IVQ2014 -0.2 IQ2015 0.4 IIQ2015 -0.6 IIIQ2015 -0.7 IVQ2015 -0.1 IQ2016 0.3 IIQ2016 -0.6 IIIQ2016 0.1 IVQ2016 -0.6 IQ2017 0.9 IIQ2017 -0.3 IIIQ2017 0.6 IVQ2017 0.0 IQ2018 0.0 IIQ2018 0.3 IIIQ2018 0.2 IVQ2018 -0.3 IQ2019 -0.1 IIQ2019 -0.3 IIIQ2019 0.0 IVQ2019 -0.3 IQ2020 -1.8 IIQ2020 0.9 IIIQ2020 0.7 IVQ2020 -0.4 IQ2021
UK	0.7 IIQ2013 -1.7 IIIQ2013 0.1 IVQ2013 0.8 IQ2014 0.3 IIQ2014 -0.7 IIIQ2014 0.0 IVQ2014 -0.4 IQ2015 1.1 IIQ2015 -0.4 IIIQ2015 -0.2 IVQ2015 -0.1 IQ2016 0.1 IIQ2016 -1.8 IIIQ2016 1.7 IVQ2016 0.33 IQ2017 0.01 IIQ2017
	0.11
	IIIQ2017 -0.28 IVQ2017 0.42 IQ2018 -0.48 IIQ2018 0.45 IIIQ2018 -1.29 IVQ2018 -2.50 IQ2019 2.90 IIQ2019 1.12 IIIQ2019 2.21 IVQ2019 -2.46 IQ2020 3.34 IIQ2020 -4.38 IIIQ2020 -1.44 IVQ2020

Sources: Country Statistical Agencies

https://www.bls.gov/bls/other.htm https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/related-sites.html

Table VI-7C provides additional information required for understanding the deficit/debt situation of the United States. The table is divided into four parts: Treasury budget in the 2021 fiscal year beginning on Oct 1, 2020 and ending on Sep 30, 2021; federal fiscal data for the years from 2009 to 2019; federal fiscal data for the years from 2005 to 2008; and Treasury debt held by the public from 2005 to 2019. Receipts increased 29.1 percent in the cumulative fiscal year 2021 ending in May 2021 relative to the cumulative in fiscal year 2020. Individual income taxes increased 48.6 percent relative to the same fiscal period a year earlier. Outlays increased 19.8 percent relative to a year earlier. There are also receipts, outlays, deficit and debt for fiscal years 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019. In fiscal year 2019, the deficit reached $984.4 billion or 4.6 percent of GDP. Outlays of 4,446.6 billion were 21.0 percent of GDP and receipts of $3,462.2 billion were 16.3 percent of GDP. It is quite difficult for the US to raise receipts above 18 percent of GDP. Total revenues of the US from 2009 to 2012 accumulate to $9021.2 billion, or $9.0 trillion, while expenditures or outlays accumulate to $14,104.5 billion, or $14.1 trillion, with the deficit accumulating to $5083.3 billion, or $5.1 trillion. Revenues decreased 6.5 percent from $9652.5 billion in the four years from 2005 to 2008 to $9021.2 billion in the years from 2009 to 2012. Decreasing revenues were caused by the global recession from IVQ2007 (Dec) to IIQ2009 (Jun) and by growth of only 2.0 percent on average in the cyclical expansion from IIIQ2009 to IQ2021. In contrast, the expansion from IQ1983 to IIIQ1994 was at the average annual growth rate of 3.7 percent and at 7.9 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/05/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-64-percent-in_29.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/05/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-64-percent-in.html). Because of mediocre GDP growth, there are 28.1 million unemployed or underemployed in the United States for an effective unemployment/underemployment rate of 16.2 percent (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/06/increase-in-may-2021-of-nonfarm-payroll.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/05/increase-in-apr-2021-of-nonfarm-payroll.html). Weakness of growth and employment creation is analyzed in II Collapse of United States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation (Section II and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/05/cumulative-growth-of-us-manufacturing.html). In contrast with the decline of revenue, outlays or expenditures increased 30.1 percent from $10,838.2 billion, or $10.8 trillion, in the four years from 2005 to 2008, to $14,104.5 billion, or $14.1 trillion, in the four years from 2009 to 2012. Increase in expenditures by 30.1 percent while revenue declined by 6.5 percent caused the increase in the federal deficit from $1185.8 billion in 2005-2008 to $5083.3 billion in 2009-2012. Federal revenue was 14.8 percent of GDP on average in the years from 2009 to 2012, which is well below 17.3 percent of GDP on average from 1962 to 2019. Federal outlays were 23.3 percent of GDP on average from 2009 to 2012, which is well above 20.1 percent of GDP on average from 1962 to 2019. The lower part of Table VI-7C shows that debt held by the public swelled from $5803 billion in 2008 to $13,117 billion in 2015, by $7314 billion or 126.0 percent. Debt held by the public as percent of GDP or economic activity jumped from 39.4 percent in 2008 to 79.2 percent in 2019, which is well above the average of 41.7 percent from 1962 to 2019. The United States faces tough adjustment because growth is unlikely to recover, creating limits on what can be obtained by increasing revenues, while continuing stress of social programs restricts what can be obtained by reducing expenditures. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) provides a preliminary estimate of the impact of Public Law 116-136 of Mar 27, 2020, CARES Act or Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act (https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-04/hr748.pdf). This preliminary estimate finds that the CARES Act “will increase federal deficits by about $1.8 trillion over the 2020-2030 period (https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-04/hr748.pdf).

Table VI-7C, US, Treasury Budget in Fiscal Year to Date Million Dollars

May 2021	Fiscal Year 2021	Fiscal Year 2020	∆%
Receipts	2,606,879	2,019,240	29.1
Outlays	4,670,668	3,899,469	19.8
Deficit	-2,063,789	-1,880,229
Individual Income Tax	1,325,823	892,477	48.6
Corporation Income Tax	190,955	86,399	121.0
Social Insurance	654,501	637,597	2.7
	Receipts	Outlays	Deficit (-), Surplus (+)
$ Billions
Fiscal Year 2019	3,462.2	4,446.6	-984.4
% GDP	16.3	21.0	-4.6
Fiscal Year 2018	3,329.9	4,109.0	-779.1
% GDP	16.4	20.2	-3.8
Fiscal Year 2017	3,316.2	3,981.6	-665.4
% GDP	17.2	20.6	-3.5
Fiscal Year 2016	3,268.0	3,852.6	-584.7
% GDP	17.6	20.8	-3.2
Fiscal Year 2015	3,249.9	3,691.8	-442.0
% GDP	18.0	20.4	-2.4
Fiscal Year 2014	3,021.5	3,506.3	-484.8
% GDP	17.4	20.2	-2.8
Fiscal Year 2013	2,775.1	3,454.9	-679.8
% GDP	16.7	20.8	-4.1
Fiscal Year 2012	2,450.0	3,526.6	-1,076.6
% GDP	15.3	22.0	-6.7
Fiscal Year 2011	2,303.5	3,603.1	-1,299.6
% GDP	15.0	23.4	-8.4
Fiscal Year 2010	2,162.7	3,457.1	-1,294.4
% GDP	14.6	23.3	-8.7
Fiscal Year 2009	2,105.0	3,517.7	-1,412.7
% GDP	14.6	24.4	-9.8
Total 2009-2012	9,021.2	14,104.5	-5,083.3
Average % GDP 2009-2012	14.8	23.3	-8.4
Fiscal Year 2008	2,524.0	2,982.5	-458.6
% GDP	17.1	20.2	-3.1
Fiscal Year 2007	2,568.0	2,728.7	-160.7
% GDP	18.0	19.1	-1.1
Fiscal Year 2006	2,406.9	2,655.1	-248.2
% GDP	17.6	19.5	-1.8
Fiscal Year 2005	2,153.6	2,472.0	-318.3
% GDP	16.8	19.3	-2.5
Total 2005-2008	9,652.5	10,838.2	-1,185.8
Average % GDP 2005-2008	17.4	19.5	-2.1
Debt Held by the Public	Billions of Dollars	Percent of GDP
2005	4,592	35.8
2006	4,829	35.4
2007	5,035	35.2
2008	5,803	39.4
2009	7,545	52.3
2010	9,019	60.8
2011	10,128	65.8
2012	11,281	70.3
2013	11,983	72.2
2014	12,780	73.7
2015	13,117	72.5
2016	14,168	76.4
2017	14,666	76.0
2018	15,750	77.4
2019	16,803	79.2

Source: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/sm0184.aspx https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm806 CBO, The budget and economic outlook: 2018 to 2028. Washington, DC, Apr 9 https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53651

CBO, The budget and economic outlook: 2017-2027. Washington, DC, Jan 24, 2017 https://www.cbo.gov/publication/52370 CBO, An update to the budget and economic outlook: 2016 to 2026. Washington, DC, Aug 23, 2016.

https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget-economic-data#6

CBO (2012NovMBR). CBO (2011AugBEO); Office of Management and Budget 2011. Historical Tables. Budget of the US Government Fiscal Year 2011. Washington, DC: OMB; CBO. 2011JanBEO. Budget and Economic Outlook. Washington, DC, Jan. CBO. 2012AugBEO. Budget and Economic Outlook. Washington, DC, Aug 22. CBO. 2012Jan31. Historical budget data. Washington, DC, Jan 31. CBO. 2012NovCDR. Choices for deficit reduction. Washington, DC. Nov. CBO. 2013HBDFeb5. Historical budget data—February 2013 baseline projections. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Feb 5. CBO. 2013HBDFeb5. Historical budget data—February 2013 baseline projections. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Feb 5. CBO (2013Aug12). 2013AugHBD. Historical budget data—August 2013. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Aug. CBO, Historical Budget Data—February 2014, Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Feb. CBO, Historical budget data—April 2014 release. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Apr. Congressional Budget Office, August 2014 baseline: an update to the budget and economic outlook: 2014 to 2024. Washington, DC, CBO, Aug 27, 2014. CBO, Monthly budget review: summary of fiscal year 2014. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Nov 10, 2014. CBO, The budget and economic outlook: 2015 to 2025. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Jan 26, 2015.

https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget-economic-data#6

https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget_economic_data#3 https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget_economic_data#2

VB Japan. The GDP of Japan grew at 1.0 percent per year on average from 1991 to 2002, with the GDP implicit deflator falling at 0.8 percent per year on average. The average growth rate of Japan’s GDP was 4 percent per year on average from the middle of the 1970s to 1992 (Ito 2004). Low growth in Japan in the 1990s is commonly labeled as “the lost decade” (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 81-115). Table VB-GDP provides annual growth rates of Japan’s GDP from 1995 to 2020. Growth weakened from 2.6 per cent in 1995 and 3.1 percent in 1996 to contractions of 1.3 percent in 1998 and 0.3 percent in 1999. Growth rates were below 2 percent with exception of 2.8 percent in 2000 and 2.2 percent in 2004. Japan’s GDP contracted sharply by 1.2 percent in 2008 and 5.7 percent in 2009. As in most advanced economies, growth was robust at 4.1 percent in 2010 but mediocre at 0.0 percent in 2011 because of the tsunami and 1.4 percent in 2012. Japan’s GDP grew 2.0 percent in 2013 and nearly stagnated in 2014 at 0.3 percent. The GDP of Japan increased 1.6 percent in 2015 and 0.8 percent in 2016. Japan’s GDP increased at 1.7 percent in 2017. The GDP of Japan increased 0.6 percent in 2018. The GDP of Japan changed 0.0 percent in 2019. Japan’s GDP contracted 4.7 percent in 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). Japan’s real GDP in calendar year 2019 is 5.3 percent higher than in calendar year 2007 for growth at the average yearly rate of 0.4 percent. Japan’s real GDP grew 13.0 percent from the trough of 2009 to 2019 at the average yearly rate of 1.2 percent (https://www.cao.go.jp/index-e.html).

Table VB-GDP, Japan, Yearly Percentage Change of GDP ∆%

Calendar Year	∆%
1995	2.6
1996	3.1
1997	1.0
1998	-1.3
1999	-0.3
2000	2.8
2001	0.4
2002	0.0
2003	1.5
2004	2.2
2005	1.8
2006	1.4
2007	1.5
2008	-1.2
2009	-5.7
2010	4.1
2011	0.0
2012	1.4
2013	2.0
2014	0.3
2015	1.6
2016	0.8
2017	1.7
2018	0.6
2019	0.0
2020	-4.7

Source: Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office

Japan’s economy grew 0.8 percent in IQ2014, seasonally adjusted, partly because of anticipation of purchases to avoid the increase in the tax on value added of consumption in Apr 2014, contracting 1.8 percent in IIQ2014, as shown in Table VB-1, incorporating the latest estimates and revisions. Japan’s GDP changed 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 and grew 0.5 percent in IVQ2014. The GDP of Japan increased 1.5 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.1

percent in IIQ2015. The GDP of Japan increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2015. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.1 percent in IVQ2015. The GDP of Japan increased 0.7 percent in IQ2016 and decreased 0.2 percent in IIQ2016. Japan’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2016. The GDP of Japan increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2016, increasing 0.8 percent in IQ2017. Japan’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2017 and increased 0.8 percent in IIIQ2017. The GDP of Japan increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2017. Japan’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IQ2018 and changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2018. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.7 percent in IIIQ2018. Japan’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2018. Japan’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2019 and increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2019. Japan’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2019. Japan’s GDP contracted 1.9

percent in IVQ2019 and contracted 0.5 percent in IQ2020. Japan’s GDP contracted 8.1 percent in IIQ2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Japan’s GDP increased 5.3 percent in IIIQ2020. Japan’s GDP increased 2.8 percent in IVQ2020. Japan’s GDP contracted 1.0 percent in IQ2021. The GDP of Japan decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2013 after growing 1.0 percent in IIIQ2013, 0.9 percent in IIQ2013 and 1.4 percent in IQ2013. Japan’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IIIQ2012. GDP growth in IQ2012 was revised to 1.4 percent; IIQ2012 GDP growth was revised to minus 0.9 percent; and IIIQ2012 growth was revised to minus 0.4 percent. The economy of Japan had already weakened in IVQ2010 when GDP fell revised 0.8 percent. As in other advanced economies, Japan’s recovery from the global recession has not been robust. GDP fell 1.1 percent in IQ2011 and fell again 0.9 percent in IIQ2011 because of the disruption of the tragic Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Recovery was robust in the first two quarters of 2010 but GDP grew at 1.8 percent in IIIQ2010 and fell 0.8 percent in IVQ2010. The deepest quarterly contractions in the global recession were 2.5 percent in IVQ2008 and 4.8 percent in IQ2009. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). Using seasonally adjusted and price adjusted data (https://www.cao.go.jp/index-e.html), Japan’s GDP fell 8.9 percent from the pre-downturn peak of ¥528,880.6 million in IQ2008 to the lowest reading of ¥482,070.7 million in IQ2009. Japan’s GDP increased 1.4 percent from the pre-downturn peak of ¥528,880.6 million in IQ2008 to ¥536,089.7 million in IQ2021 at the annual equivalent rate of 0.1 percent. GDP in Japan grew 11.2 percent from IIQ2009 to IQ2021 at the annual equivalent rate of 0.9 percent, using the latest revision (https://www.cao.go.jp/index-e.html). The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) of the Cabinet Office of Japan revised the national accounts of Japan following the international standard of the national accounts. ESRI also changed the benchmark reference to 2015 in the second estimate for IIIQ2020 (https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/data/sokuhou/files/2020/qe203_2/gdemenuea.html). ESRI also changed the benchmark reference year from 2005 to 2011 (http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/data/kakuhou/files/2015/pdf/20160930_2008sna.pdf http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/data/sokuhou/files/2016/qe163_2/pdf/note_e.pdf). ESRI revised GDP since 1994 (http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/data/sokuhou/files/2017/qe173_2/gdemenuea.html http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/data/sokuhou/files/2017/qe173_2/pdf/note_e.pdf).

Table VB-1, Japan, Real GDP ∆% Changes from the Previous Quarter Seasonally Adjusted ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IVQ
2021	-1.0
2020	-0.5	-8.1	5.3	2.8
2019	0.4	0.1	0.1	-1.9
2018	0.0	0.0	-0.7	0.5
2017	0.8	0.2	0.8	0.4
2016	0.7	-0.2	0.2	0.3
2015	1.5	0.1	0.1	-0.1
2014	0.8	-1.8	0.1	0.5
2013	1.4	0.9	1.0	-0.1
2012	1.4	-0.9	-0.4	-0.1
2011	-1.1	-0.9	2.4	-0.2
2010	1.0	1.2	1.8	-0.8
2009	-4.8	2.0	0.0	1.2
2008	0.4	-0.6	-1.2	-2.5
2007	0.7	0.1	-0.5	0.4
2006	0.1	0.2	-0.2	1.3
2005	0.5	0.8	1.0	0.2
2004	0.7	0.0	0.6	-0.2
2003	0.1	0.7	0.3	1.1
2002	0.2	0.8	0.3	0.3
2001	0.7	-0.7	-1.1	-0.3
2000	1.7	0.5	0.0	1.0
1999	-1.4	0.4	0.5	0.0
1998	-1.2	-0.4	0.2	0.8
1997	0.3	-0.8	0.2	0.0

Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office

Japan’s GDP contracted at 3.9 percent in IQ2021 with deductions of 3.1 percent by Personal consumption (PC), 1.0 percent by government expenditure (GOVC) and 0.9 percent by Net trade (Trade). Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) deducted 0.7 percent and private inventory investment (PINV) added 1.7 percent. Japan’s GDP grew at 11.7 percent in IVQ2020 with contributions of 4.9 percent by Personal consumption (PC), 1.6 percent by government expenditure (GOVC) and 4.2 percent by Net trade (Trade). Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) contributed 3.0 percent and private inventory investment (PINV) subtracted 2.0 percent. Japan’s GDP grew at 22.9 percent in IIIQ2020 with contributions of 11.7 percent by Personal consumption (PC), 2.7 percent by government expenditure (GOVC) and 11.2 percent by Net trade (Trade). Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) deducted 2.1 percent and private inventory investment (PINV) subtracted 0.8 percent. Japan’s GDP contracted at 28.6 percent in IIQ2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event, with deductions of 15.9 percent by personal consumption expenditures (PC), 10.2 percent by Net trade (Trade) and 3.5 percent by Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF). Government Expenditure (GOVC) contributed 0.2 percent and Private Inventory Investment (PINV) added 0.3 percent. Japan’s GDP contracted at 2.0 percent in IQ2020 with deductions of 1.8 percent by personal consumption expenditures (PC), 1.2 percent by Net trade (Trade) and 0.1 percent by Government expenditure (GOVC). Private inventory investment (PINV) contributed 0.7 percent and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) added 0.3 percent. Japan’s GDP contracted at 7.4 percent in IVQ2019 with contributions of 2.3 percent by Net trade (Trade) and 0.3 percent by government expenditure (GOVC). Private inventory investment (PINV) deducted 0.3 percent, Personal consumption expenditures (PC) deducted 6.7 percent and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF subtracted 3.2 percent. Japan’s GDP grew at 0.5 percent in IIIIQ2019 with contributions of 0.9 percent by Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) and 0.6 percent by government expenditure (GOVC). Net trade (Trade) deducted 1.3 percent and private inventory investment (PINV) subtracted 0.8 percent. Personal consumption expenditures (PC) contributed 1.2 percent. The GDP of Japan grew at 0.5 percent in IIQ2019 with contributions of 0.3 percent by Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) and 1.0 percent by Personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Government expenditure (GOVC) contributed 0.3 percent. Net trade deducted 1.2 percent and private inventory investment (PINV) subtracted 0.1 percent.

Japan’s GDP grew at 1.4 percent in IQ2019 with contributions of 0.4 percent by Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) and 0.9 percent by net trade (Trade). Government expenditure (GOVC) contributed 0.4 percent and private inventory investment (PINV) added 0.1 percent. Personal consumption expenditures (PC) deducted 0.2 percent. Japan’s GDP grew at 1.8 percent in IVQ2018 with contributions of 0.6 percent by government expenditures (GOVC) and 0.2 percent by personal consumption expenditures (PC). Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) contributed 2.5 percent and private inventory investment (PINV) added 0.2 percent. Net Trade deducted 1.6 percentage points. The GDP of Japan contracted at minus 2.7 percent in IIIQ2018 with contribution of 0.1 percent by government expenditures (GOVC). Personal consumption (PC) deducted 0.3 percentage points and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) deducted 2.7 percentage points. Net trade (Trade) deducted 0.9 percentage points and inventory investment (PINV) contributed 1.2 percentage points. The GDP of Japan changed at 0.0 percent in IIQ2018 with contributions of 0.3 percent by personal consumption (PC) and 0.4 percent by gross fixed capital formation (GFCF). Net trade (Trade) contributed 0.0 percentage points, inventory investment (PINV) deducted 0.6 percentage points and government expenditures (GOVC) deducted 0.1 percentage points. Japan’s GDP changed at 0.0 percent in IQ2018 with contributions of 0.3 percent by Net Trade (Trade), 0.6 percent by government expenditures (GOVC) and minus 0.1 percent by personal consumption expenditures (PC). Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) contributed 0.2 percent and private inventory divestment (PINV) deducted 0.9 percent. The GDP of Japan grew at 1.7 percent in IVQ2017 with contributions of 0.9 percent by personal consumption (PC) and 0.5 percent by gross fixed capital formation (GFCF). Net trade (Trade) deducted 0.0 percentage points, inventory investment (PINV) contributed 0.3 percentage points and government expenditures (GOVC) contributed 0.0 percentage points. Japan’s GDP grew at 3.2 percent in IIIQ2017 with Net Trade (Trade) contributing 1.9 percentage points and inventory investment (PINV) adding 2.2 percentage points. Private consumption (PC) deducted 0.9 percentage points. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) deducted 0.2 percentage points and government consumption (GOVC) contributed 0.3 percentage points. The GDP of Japan grew at 0.9 percent in IIQ2017 with contributions of 1.1 percent by personal consumption (PC), 0.8 percent by gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) and minus 0.4 percent by government expenditures (GOV). Net trade (Trade) deducted 0.9 percentage points and inventory divestment (PINV) subtracted 0.0 percentage points. The GDP of Japan grew at 3.1 percent in IQ2017 with contributions of 0.3 percent of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), 0.6 percent of net exports (Trade) and 0.2 percent of government consumption (GOVC). Inventory investment (PINV) contributed 0.7 percent and personal consumption (PC) contributed 1.2 percent. The GDP of Japan grew at 1.2 percent in IVQ2016 with contributions of 0.8 percent of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), 1.2 percent of net exports (Trade) and deduction of 0.0 percent of government consumption (GOVC). Inventory divestment (PINV) deducted 1.3 percent and personal consumption (PC) contributed 0.6 percent. Japan’s GDP grew at 0.8 percent in IIIQ2016 with contributions of 0.8 percent of personal consumption expenditures (PC), 1.1 percent of net trade (Trade) and 0.3 percent of government consumption expenditures (GOVC). Inventory divestment (PINV) deducted 1.8 percent and gross capital formation (GFCF) contributed 0.5 percent. The GDP of Japan contracted at 0.9 percent in IIQ2016 with deduction of 1.4 percent by personal consumption expenditures. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) deducted 0.1 percent and government consumption expenditures (GOVC) deducted 0.7 percent. Net trade (Trade) added 0.3 percent and change of private inventories (PINV) added 1.1 percent. Japan’s GDP grew at 2.9 percent in IQ2016 with contributions of 0.2 percent by personal consumption, 1.4 percent by trade and 1.0 percent by government. Gross fixed capital formation added 0.2 percent. The GDP of Japan grew at minus 0.4 percent in IVQ2015 with deduction of 1.5 percent by personal consumption (PC) expenditures and deduction of 0.0 percent by private inventories (PINV). Net trade deducted 0.0 percent and gross fixed capital formation contributed 0.4 percent. GDP grew at 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 with contributions of 0.6 percent by personal consumption expenditures and 0.4 percentage points by government consumption. Net trade deducted 0.5 percent. Gross Fixed Capital Formation contributed 1.0 percentage points and inventory divestment deducted 1.0 percentage points. GDP grew at 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 with contribution of 0.2 percent by personal consumption expenditures and deduction of 0.8 percent of net exports. Goss fixed capital formation deducted 0.9 percentage points; government consumption expenditures contributed 0.1 percentage points; and inventory investment added 1.8 percentage points. GDP grew at 6.3 percent in IQ2015 with contributions of 1.2 percentage points by personal consumption expenditures, 2.6 percent by gross fixed capital formation and increase in inventory investment at 1.1 percent. Government expenditures increased at 0.8 percent while trade contributed 0.4 percentage points. GDP expanded at 2.0 percent in IVQ2014 with contribution of 0.4 percent by personal consumption expenditures, 1.8 percent by net trade and 0.2 percent by government consumption expenditures. Gross fixed capital formation added 0.6 percent and private inventory divestment deducted 1.0 percent. Japan grew at 0.4 percent in IIIQ2014 with contributions of 0.2 percentage points of GFCF and 2.0 percentage points by personal consumptions expenditure but deduction of 2.1 percentage points of inventory divestment. Traded deducted 0.3 percentage points and government added 0.5 percent. Japan’s GDP contracted at 7.2 percent in IIQ2014 with deductions of 11.5 percent by personal consumption and 3.5 percent by gross fixed capital formation. Trade added 4.2 percentage points and government expenditures deducted 0.3 percent. Inventory investment added 3.8 percent. The GDP of Japan expanded at 3.3 percent in IQ2014 with contributions of 4.6 percent by personal consumption and 1.4 percent of gross fixed capital formation. There were deductions of 0.9 percent by trade and 1.9 percent by inventory divestment. Government expenditures contributed 0.2 percent. The GDP of Japan decreased at 0.5 percent annual equivalent in IVQ2013 with deduction of personal consumption expenditures of 0.4 percent and growth of GFCF at 1.4 percent. Trade deducted 2.1 percentage points. Japan grew at 3.9 percent in IIIQ2013 with contribution of 1.2 percentage points by personal consumption and 2.6 percentage points by GFCF. Trade deducted 1.3 percentage points. Japan grew at 3.6 percent SAAR in IIQ2013 driven by contribution of 1.8 percent of personal consumption, deduction of 0.2 percent of net trade and contribution of gross fixed capital formation at 2.9 percent. In IQ2013, Japan’s GDP increased at the SAAR of 5.7 percent in large part because of 3.6 percent in personal consumption and 1.5 percent in trade. The SAAR of GDP in IVQ2012 was minus 0.3 percent: 1.0 percentage points from growth of personal consumption expenditures less 0.3 percentage points of net trade (exports less imports) less 1.3 percentage points of private inventory investment (PINV) plus 0.6 percentage points of government consumption and minus 0.2 percentage points of gross fixed capital formation. The SAAR of GDP in IIIQ2011 was revised to a high 10.1 percent. Net trade deducted from GDP growth in three quarters of 2011 and provided the growth impulse of 3.6 percentage points in IIIQ2011. Growth in 2011 and IQ2012 was driven by personal consumption expenditures that deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2012 but contributed 1.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2012.

Table VB-2, Japan, Contributions to Changes in Real GDP, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (SAAR), %

	GDP	PC	GFCF	Trade	PINV	GOVC
2021
I	-3.9	-3.1	-0.7	-0.9	1.7	-1.0
2020
I	-2.0	-1.8	0.3	-1.2	0.7	-0.1
II	-28.6	-15.9	-3.5	-10.2	0.3	0.2
III	22.9	11.7	-2.1	11.2	-0.8	2.7
IV	11.7	4.9	3.0	4.2	-2.0	1.6
2019
I	1.4	-0.2	0.4	0.9	0.1	0.3
II	0.5	1.0	0.3	-1.2	-0.1	0.4
III	0.5	1.2	0.9	-1.3	-0.8	0.6
IV	-7.4	-6.7	-3.2	2.3	-0.3	0.3
2018
I	0.0	-0.1	0.2	0.3	-0.9	0.6
II	0.0	0.3	0.4	0.0	-0.6	-0.1
III	-2.7	-0.3	-2.7	-0.9	1.2	0.1
IV	1.8	0.2	2.5	-1.6	0.2	0.6
2017
I	3.1	1.2	0.3	0.6	0.7	0.2
II	0.9	1.1	0.8	-0.9	0.0	-0.4
III	3.2	-0.9	-0.2	1.9	2.2	0.3
IV	1.7	0.9	0.5	0.0	0.3	0.0
2016
I	2.9	0.2	0.2	1.4	0.1	1.0
II	-0.9	-1.4	-0.1	0.3	1.1	-0.7
III	0.8	0.8	0.5	1.1	-1.8	0.3
IV	1.2	0.6	0.8	1.2	-1.3	0.0
2015
I	6.3	1.2	2.6	0.4	1.1	0.8
II	0.4	0.2	-0.9	-0.8	1.8	0.1
III	0.4	0.6	1.0	-0.5	-1.0	0.4
IV	-0.4	-1.5	0.4	0.0	0.0	0.7
2014
I	3.3	4.6	1.4	-0.9	-1.9	0.2
II	-7.2	-11.5	-3.5	4.2	3.8	-0.3
III	0.4	2.0	0.2	-0.3	-2.1	0.5
IV	2.0	0.4	0.6	1.8	-1.0	0.2
2013
I	5.7	3.6	0.4	1.5	0.5	-0.2
II	3.6	1.8	2.9	-0.2	-2.1	1.1
III	3.9	1.2	2.6	-1.3	1.5	0.0
IV	-0.5	-0.4	1.4	-2.1	0.4	0.2
2012
I	5.7	1.0	0.9	0.7	2.2	0.8
II	-3.6	0.4	0.5	-1.9	-2.5	-0.2
III	-1.5	-0.1	-0.6	-1.9	0.9	0.2
IV	-0.3	1.0	-0.2	-0.3	-1.3	0.6
2011
I	-4.2	-3.6	1.5	-1.3	-1.2	0.4
II	-3.4	1.6	-0.8	-4.3	-0.3	0.4
III	10.1	3.7	1.4	3.6	1.0	0.3
IV	-0.6	1.3	1.4	-2.6	-0.9	0.3
2010
I	4.2	0.8	1.1	1.8	1.1	-0.7
II	5.0	1.7	-0.4	0.3	2.0	1.4
III	7.5	3.5	0.6	0.7	2.5	0.3
IV	-3.3	-3.8	-0.1	-0.1	0.2	0.4
2009
I	-17.9	-1.0	-4.8	-4.6	-8.0	0.3
II	8.2	2.2	-2.0	7.4	-0.7	1.1
III	-0.1	1.7	-3.0	2.1	-1.7	0.8
IV	5.0	1.5	-0.7	2.8	1.2	0.2
2008
I	1.4	1.0	0.5	0.9	-1.0	0.1
II	-2.2	-2.5	-1.1	0.4	2.0	-0.9
III	-4.8	-0.6	-0.7	-0.1	-3.4	0.0
IV	-9.6	-3.3	-2.3	-10.3	5.8	0.3
2007
I	2.6	0.2	-0.2	1.0	1.3	0.4
II	0.2	1.2	-1.5	0.7	-1.0	0.6
III	-2.1	-2.1	-2.5	2.2	0.5	-0.1
IV	1.6	0.3	-1.4	1.2	1.0	0.6

Note: PC: Private Consumption; GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation; PINV: Private Inventory; Trade: Net Exports; GOVC: Government Consumption

Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office

Table VB-3, Japan, Contributions to Changes in Real GDP, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (SAAR), %

Long-term economic growth in Japan significantly improved by increasing competitiveness in world markets. Net trade of exports and imports is an important component of the GDP accounts of Japan. Table VB-3 provides quarterly data for net trade, exports and imports of Japan. Net trade had strong positive contributions to GDP growth in Japan in all quarters from IQ2007 to IIQ2009 with exception of IVQ2008, IIIQ2008 and IQ2009. The US recession is dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) as beginning in IVQ2007 (Dec) and ending in IIQ2009 (Jun) (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html). Net trade contributions helped to cushion the economy of Japan from the global recession. Net trade deducted from GDP growth in six of the nine quarters from IVQ2010 to IQ2012. The only strong contribution of net trade was 3.6 percent in IIIQ2011. Net trade added 0.7 percent in IQ2012, deducting 1.9 percent in IIQ2012. Net trade deducted 1.9 percent in IIIQ2012. Net traded deducted 0.3 percent in IVQ2012. Net trade added 1.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2013 but deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIQ2013, deducting 1.3 percentage points in IIIQ2013 and 2.1 percentage points in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 0.9 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2014. Net trade added 4.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2014 and deducted 0.3 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 1.8 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2014. Net trade contributed 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2015 and deducted 0.8-percentage points in IIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.5 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015 and added 1.4 percentage points in IQ2016. Net trade contributed 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade added 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2016 and contributed 1.2 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade contributed 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017 and deducted 0.9 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade contributed 1.9 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017 and deducted 0.0 percentage-point in IVQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018 and contributed 0.0 percentage points in IIQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.9 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018 and deducted 1.6 percentage points in IVQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.9 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2019 with export contraction deducting 1.5 percent and import contraction contributing 2.4 percent. Net trade deducted 1.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2019. Net trade deducted 1.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade contributed 2.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 1.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2020 with export contraction deducting 3.3 percentage points and import contraction adding 2.1 percentage points. Net trade deducted 10.2 percentage points in IIQ2020 with export contraction deducting 10.7 percentage points and imports contributing 0.5 percentage points. Net trade contributed 11.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2020 with export growth contributing 4.7 percentage points and import contraction contribution 6.5 percentage points. Net trade contributed 4.2 percentage points to GDP in IVQ2020 with export growth contributing 7.3 percentage points and imports deducting 3.1 percentage points. Net trade deducted 0.9 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2021 with exports contributing 1.4 percent and imports deducting 2.4 percent. Private consumption assumed the role of driver of Japan’s economic growth but should moderate as in most mature economies.

	Net Trade	Exports	Imports
2021
I	-0.9	1.4	-2.4
2020
I	-1.2	-3.3	2.1
II	-10.2	-10.7	0.5
III	11.2	4.7	6.5
IV	4.2	7.3	-3.1
2019
I	0.9	-1.5	2.4
II	-1.2	0.3	-1.5
III	-1.3	-0.4	-0.9
IV	2.3	0.2	2.1
2018
I	0.3	0.7	-0.5
II	0.0	0.6	-0.6
III	-0.9	-1.6	0.7
IV	-1.6	1.4	-3.0
2017
I	0.6	1.3	-0.7
II	-0.9	0.0	-0.8
III	1.9	1.3	0.6
IV	0.0	1.6	-1.6
2016
I	1.4	0.4	0.9
II	0.3	-0.5	0.8
III	1.1	1.4	-0.3
IV	1.2	2.0	-0.9
2015
I	0.4	1.0	-0.6
II	-0.8	-2.5	1.7
III	-0.5	1.7	-2.2
IV	0.0	-0.6	0.5
2014
I	-0.9	3.8	-4.8
II	4.2	0.9	3.3
III	-0.3	1.1	-1.3
IV	1.8	2.1	-0.3
2013
I	1.5	1.8	-0.3
II	-0.2	1.9	-2.0
III	-1.3	0.0	-1.3
IV	-2.1	-0.2	-1.9
2012
I	0.7	1.8	-1.1
II	-1.9	-0.5	-1.4
III	-1.9	-2.1	0.2
IV	-0.3	-2.0	1.7
2011
I	-1.3	-0.5	-0.7
II	-4.3	-4.6	0.3
III	3.6	5.5	-1.9
IV	-2.6	-1.6	-1.0
2010
I	1.8	3.2	-1.4
II	0.3	2.8	-2.5
III	0.7	1.7	-1.0
IV	-0.1	0.2	-0.3
2009
I	-4.6	-16.0	11.4
II	7.4	4.6	2.8
III	2.1	5.2	-3.1
IV	2.8	4.1	-1.4
2008
I	0.9	1.8	-0.9
II	0.4	-1.4	1.8
III	-0.1	0.1	-0.2
IV	-10.3	-9.1	-1.1
2007
I	1.0	1.5	-0.5
II	0.7	1.6	-0.9
III	2.2	1.6	0.6
IV	1.2	1.9	-0.8

Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office

Japan’s percentage growth of GDP not seasonally adjusted in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier is in in Table VB-4. Contraction of GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier extended over seven quarters from IIQ2008 through IVQ2009. Contraction was sharpest in IQ2009 with output declining 9.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Yearly quarterly rates of growth of Japan were relatively high for a mature economy through the decade except for the contractions from IVQ2001 to IIQ2002 and after 2007. The Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011 caused slower GDP in IQ2011 at 1.1 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier and decline of 0.9 percent in IIQ2011. GDP fell 0.3 percent in IIIQ2011 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2011 relative to a year earlier. Growth resumed with 3.0 percent in IQ2012 relative to a year earlier. Growth of 2.8 percent in IIQ2012 is largely caused by the low level in IIQ2011 resulting from the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2012 relative to a year earlier and decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent in IIQ2013. Growth of 3.0 percent in IIIQ2013 relative to a year earlier is partly due to the decline of 0.4 percent in GDP in IIIQ2012. GDP increased 3.1 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 2.9 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.1 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP contracted 1.1 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.5 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier in IQ2015 and increased 2.4 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 2.2 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.5 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.0 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, Japan’s GDP increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 1.0 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2017, Japan’s GDP increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 2.1 percent in IIIQ2017 relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 2.2 percent in IVQ2017 relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, the GDP of Japan increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 1.2 percent in IIQ2018 relative to a year earlier and decreased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2018 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan decreased 0.2 percent in IVQ2018 relative to a year earlier, changing 0.0 percent in IQ2019 relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2019 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 1.1 percent in IIIQ2019 relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP fell 1.4 percent in IVQ2019 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan decreased 2.1 percent in IQ2020 relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP decreased 10.1 percent in IIQ2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The GDP of Japan contracted 5.6 percent in IIIQ2020 relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP contracted 1.1 percent in IVQ2020 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan contracted 1.6 percent in IQ2021 relative to a year earlier. Japan faces the challenge of recovery from the devastation of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011 in an environment of declining world trade and bouts of risk aversion that cause appreciation of the Japanese yen, eroding the country’s competitiveness in world markets. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). Using price adjusted but not seasonally adjusted data (https://www.cao.go.jp/index-e.html), Japan’s GDP contracted 11.7 percent from the high in IVQ2007 to the low in IIQ2009. GDP decreased 0.2 percent from IVQ2007 to IQ2021. Japan’s GDP grew 13.0 percent from IIIQ2009 to IQ2021 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.0 percent.

Table VB-4, Japan, Real GDP ∆% Changes from Same Quarter Year Earlier, NSA ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IVQ
2021	-1.6
2020	-2.1	-10.1	-5.6	-1.1
2019	0.0	0.4	1.1	-1.4
2018	1.4	1.2	-0.2	-0.2
2017	1.0	1.4	2.1	2.2
2016	1.0	0.5	0.5	1.0
2015	0.3	2.4	2.2	1.5
2014	2.9	-0.1	-1.1	-0.5
2013	0.0	1.8	3.0	3.1
2012	3.0	2.8	-0.1	-0.1
2011	1.1	-0.9	-0.3	0.2
2010	4.4	3.5	5.6	3.0
2009	-9.0	-6.6	-5.4	-1.7
2008	0.4	-0.4	-1.0	-3.9
2007	2.2	1.8	1.4	0.6
2006	2.5	1.4	0.2	1.5
2005	1.1	1.7	2.0	2.4
2004	3.1	2.2	2.5	1.1
2003	1.6	1.4	1.3	1.9
2002	-1.9	-0.3	0.9	1.4
2001	2.5	1.0	-0.2	-1.7
2000	3.2	2.9	2.4	2.6
1999	-0.6	-0.1	0.2	-0.8
1998	-1.8	-1.1	-1.4	-0.8
1997	2.8	0.9	0.8	-0.5

Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office