Increase in Oct 2020 of Nonfarm Payroll Jobs by 638,000 and Private Payroll Jobs by 906,000 in the Global Recession, with Output in the US Reaching a High in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the Lockdown of Economic Activity in the COVID-19 Event, Thirty-One Million Unemployed or Underemployed in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth Underperforming Below Trend Worldwide, Job Creation, Cyclically Stagnating Real Wages, Real Disposable Income and Consumption Expenditures, Financial Repression, Long-term Decline of United States Homeownership Rate, World Cyclical Slow Growth, and Government Intervention in Globalization
Carlos M. Pelaez
© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020.
I Thirty-One Million Unemployed or Underemployed in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth Underperforming Below Trend Worldwide
IA2 Number of People in Job Stress
IA3 Long-term and Cyclical Comparison of Employment
IA4 Job Creation
II Stagnating Real Disposable Income and Consumption Expenditures
IIB1 Stagnating Real Disposable Income and Consumption Expenditures
IB2 Financial Repression
IID Decline of United States Homeownership
III World Financial Turbulence
IV Global Inflation
V World Economic Slowdown
VA United States
VB Japan
VC China
VD Euro Area
VE Germany
VF France
VG Italy
VH United Kingdom
VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets
VII Economic Indicators
VIII Interest Rates
IX Conclusion
References
Appendixes
Appendix I The Great Inflation
IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies
IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact
IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort
IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis
V World Economic Slowdown. Table V-1 is constructed with the database of the IMF (https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/index.aspx) to show GDP in dollars in 2018 and the growth rate of real GDP of the world and selected regional countries from 2018 to 2021. The data illustrate the concept often repeated of “two-speed recovery” of the world economy from the recession of 2007 to 2009. There is a major change in the sharp contraction of world real GDP of 3.1 percent in 2020 in the probable global recession originating in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The IMF has changed its measurement of growth of the world economy to 3.6 percent in 2018 and reducing the forecast rate of growth to 2.9 percent in 2019, minus 3.1 percent in 2020 and 5.8 percent in 2021. Slow-speed recovery occurs in the “major advanced economies” of the G7 that are projected to grow at much lower rates than world output, 0.4 percent on average from 2018 to 2021, in contrast with 2.2 percent for the world as a whole. While the world would grow 9.3 percent in the four years from 2018 to 2021, the G7 as a whole would grow 1.6 percent. The “two speed” concept is in reference to the growth of the 150 countries labeled as emerging and developing economies (EMDE). The EMDEs would grow cumulatively 14.2 percent or at the average yearly rate of 3.4 percent.
Table V-1, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Real GDP Growth
GDP USD Billions 2018 | Real GDP ∆% | Real GDP ∆% | Real GDP ∆% | Real GDP ∆% | |
World | 135,762 | 3.6 | 2.9 | -3.1 | 5.8 |
G7 | 40,783 | 2.0 | 1.6 | -6.2 | 4.5 |
Canada | 1,842 | 2.0 | 1.6 | -6.2 | 4.3 |
France | 2,970 | 1.7 | 1.3 | -7.2 | 4.5 |
DE | 4,343 | 1.5 | 0.6 | -7.0 | 5.2 |
Italy | 2,406 | 0.8 | 0.3 | -9.1 | 4.8 |
Japan | 5,578 | 0.3 | 0.7 | -5.2 | 3.0 |
UK | 3,065 | 1.3 | 1.4 | -6.5 | 4.0 |
US | 20,580 | 2.9 | 2.3 | -5.9 | 4.7 |
Euro Area | NA | 1.9 | 1.2 | -7.5 | 4.7 |
DE | 4,343 | 1.5 | 0.6 | -7.0 | 5.2 |
France | 2,970 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 7.2 | 4.5 |
Italy | 2,406 | 0.8 | 0.3 | -9.1 | 4.8 |
POT | 334 | 2.6 | 2.2 | -8.0 | 5.0 |
Ireland | 389 | 8.3 | 5.5 | -6.8 | 6.3 |
Greece | 312 | 1.9 | 1.9 | -10.0 | 5.1 |
Spain | 1,854 | 2.4 | 2.0 | -8.0 | 4.3 |
EMDE | 80,401 | 4.5 | 3.7 | -1.1 | 6.6 |
Brazil | 3,383 | 1.3 | 1.1 | -5.3 | 2.9 |
Russia | 4,258 | 2.5 | 1.3 | -5.5 | 3.5 |
India | 10,413 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 7.4 |
China | 25,294 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 1.2 | 9.2 |
Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries); POT: Portugal
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook databank
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/index.aspx
Continuing high rates of unemployment in advanced economies constitute another characteristic of the database of the WEO (Continuing high rates of unemployment in advanced economies constitute another characteristic of the database of the WEO (https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2019/02/weodata/index.aspx). Table V-2 is constructed with the WEO database to provide rates of unemployment from 2017 to 2021 for major countries and regions. In fact, unemployment rates for 2017 in Table V-2 are high for all countries: unusually high for countries with high rates most of the time and unusually high for countries with low rates most of the time. The rates of unemployment are particularly high in 2017 for the countries with sovereign debt difficulties in Europe: 8.9 percent for Portugal (POT), 6.7 percent for Ireland, 21.5 percent for Greece, 17.2 percent for Spain and 11.3 percent for Italy, which is lower but still high. The G7 rate of unemployment is 5.0 percent. Unemployment rates are not likely to decrease substantially if relative slow cyclical growth persists in advanced economies. There are sharp increases in the rates of unemployment in 2020 in the probable global recession originating in the lockdown of economy activity in the COVID-19 event. The rate of unemployment increases to 7.8 percent for the G7 countries and 10.4 percent for the euro area.
Table V-2, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Unemployment Rate as Percent of Labor Force
% Labor Force 2017 | % Labor Force 2018 | % Labor Force 2019 | % Labor Force 2020 | % Labor Force 2021 | |
World | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
G7 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 7.8 | 6.9 |
Canada | 6.3 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 7.2 |
France | 9.4 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 10.4 | 10.4 |
DE | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 3.5 |
Italy | 11.3 | 10.6 | 10.0 | 12.7 | 10.5 |
Japan | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 2.3 |
UK | 4.4 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 4.4 |
US | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 10.4 | 9.1 |
Euro Area | 9.1 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 10.4 | 8.9 |
DE | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 3.5 |
France | 9.4 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 10.4 | 10.4 |
Italy | 11.3 | 10.6 | 10.0 | 12.7 | 10.5 |
POT | 8.9 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 13.9 | 8.7 |
Ireland | 6.7 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 12.1 | 7.9 |
Greece | 21.5 | 19.3 | 17.3 | 22.3 | 19.0 |
Spain | 17.2 | 15.3 | 14.1 | 20.8 | 17.5 |
EMDE | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
Brazil | 12.8 | 12.3 | 11.9 | 14.7 | 13.5 |
Russia | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 4.8 |
India | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
China | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 3.8 |
Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries)
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/index.aspx
There are references to adverse periods as “lost decades.” There is a more prolonged and adverse period in Table V-3A: the lost economic cycle of the Global Recession with economic growth underperforming below trend worldwide. Economic contractions were relatively high but not comparable to the decline of GDP during the Great Depression. In fact, during the Great Depression in the four years of 1930 to 1933, US GDP in constant dollars fell 26.3 percent cumulatively and fell 45.3 percent in current dollars (Pelaez and Pelaez, Financial Regulation after the Global Recession (2009a), 150-2, Pelaez and Pelaez, Globalization and the State, Vol. II (2009b), 205-7 and revisions in http://bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). Data are available for the 1930s only on a yearly basis. The contraction of GDP in the current cycle of the Global Recession was much lower, 4.0 percent (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/11/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-331-percent-in.html earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/10/dollar-carry-trades-induced-from-zero.html). Contractions are sharper in the global recession resulting from the COVID-19 event (https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-september-2020.htm). US economic growth has been at only 1.8 percent on average in the cyclical expansion in the 45 quarters from IIIQ2009 to IIIQ2020 and in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Boskin (2010Sep) measures that the US economy grew at 6.2 percent in the first four quarters and 4.5 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the second quarter of 1975; and at 7.7 percent in the first four quarters and 5.8 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the first quarter of 1983 (Professor Michael J. Boskin, Summer of Discontent, Wall Street Journal, Sep 2, 2010 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882304575465462926649950.html). There are new calculations using the revision of US GDP and personal income data since 1929 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (http://bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) and the first estimate of GDP for IIIQ2020 (https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2020-10/gdp3q20_adv.pdf). The average of 7.7 percent in the first four quarters of major cyclical expansions is in contrast with the rate of growth in the first four quarters of the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010 of only 2.8 percent obtained by dividing GDP of $15,557.3 billion in IIQ2010 by GDP of $15,134.1 billion in IIQ2009 {[($15,557.3/$15,134.1) -1]100 = 2.8%], or accumulating the quarter on quarter growth rates (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/11/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-331-percent-in.html earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/10/dollar-carry-trades-induced-from-zero.html). The expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1986 was at the average annual growth rate of 5.7 percent, 5.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1986, 5.1 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1986, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1989, 4.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1989, 4.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1989, 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1989. 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1990, 4.4 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1990, 4.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1990, 4.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1990, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1992, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1994 and at 7.9 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/11/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-331-percent-in.html earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/10/dollar-carry-trades-induced-from-zero.html). The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dates a contraction of the US from IQ1990 (Jul) to IQ1991 (Mar) (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html). The expansion lasted until another contraction beginning in IQ2001 (Mar). US GDP contracted 1.3 percent from the pre-recession peak of $8983.9 billion of chained 2009 dollars in IIIQ1990 to the trough of $8865.6 billion in IQ1991 (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IIIQ2020 and in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event would have accumulated to 45.8 percent. GDP in IIIQ2020 would be $22,981.0 billion (in constant dollars of 2012) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $4397.0 billion than actual $18,584.0 billion. There are more than four trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 30.6 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 17.7 percent of the effective labor force with the largest part originating in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event (Section I and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/10/increasingvaluations-of-risk-financial.html). Unemployment is decreasing while employment is increasing in initial adjustment of the lockdown of economic activity in the global recession resulting from the COVID-19 event (https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-october-2020.htm). US GDP in IIIQ2020 is 19.1 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $15,762.0 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $18,584.0 billion in IIIQ2020 or 17.9 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.3 percent. Professor John H. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. Cochrane (2016May02) measures GDP growth in the US at average 3.5 percent per year from 1950 to 2000 and only at 1.76 percent per year from 2000 to 2015 with only at 2.0 percent annual equivalent in the current expansion. Cochrane (2016May02) proposes drastic changes in regulation and legal obstacles to private economic activity. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 2.9 percent per year from Sep 1919 to Sep 2020. Growth at 2.9 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 155.9263 in Sep 2020. The actual index NSA in Sep 2020 is 98.5100 which is 36.8 percent below trend. The underperformance of manufacturing in Mar-Aug 2020 originates partly in the earlier global recession augmented by the current global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19. Manufacturing grew at the average annual rate of 3.3 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2006. Growth at 3.3 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 163.8334 in Sep 2020. The actual index NSA in Sep 2020 is 98.5100, which is 39.9 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 1.7 percent between Dec 1986 and Sep 2020. Using trend growth of 1.7 percent per year, the index would increase to 134.2658 in Sep 2020. The output of manufacturing at 98.5100 in Sep 2020 is 26.6 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Using the NAICS (North American Industry Classification System), manufacturing output fell from the high of 110.5147 in Jun 2007 to the low of 86.3800 in Apr 2009 or 21.8 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased from 86.3800 in Apr 2009 to 99.7738 in Sep 2020 or 15.5 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased at the annual equivalent rate of 3.5 percent from Dec 1986 to Dec 2006. Growth at 3.5 percent would increase the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 165.4105 in Sep 2020. The NAICS index at 99.7738 in Sep 2020 is 39.7 below trend. The NAICS manufacturing output index grew at 1.7 percent annual equivalent from Dec 1999 to Dec 2006. Growth at 1.7 percent would raise the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 132.2561 in Sep 2020. The NAICS index at 99.7738 in Sep 2020 is 24.6 percent below trend under this alternative calculation.
Table V-3A, Cycle 2007-2020, Percentage Contraction, Average Growth Rate in Expansion, Average Growth Rate in Whole Cycle and GDP Percent Below Trend
Contraction ∆% | Expansion Average ∆% | Whole Cycle Average ∆% | Below Trend Percent | |
USA | 4.0 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 19.1 |
Japan | 8.6 | 0.4 | -0.4 | NA |
Euro Area 19 | 5.7 | -0.2 | -0.6 | 30.1 |
France | 3.9 | -0.8 | -0.9 | 27.9 |
Germany | 7.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | NA |
UK | 5.9 | -0.6 | -1.0 | 35.4 |
Note: AV: Average. Expansion and Whole Cycle AV ∆% calculated with quarterly growth, seasonally adjusted and quarterly adjusted when applicable, rates and converted into annual equivalent. Combines the Global Recession after 2007 and the COVID-19 Global Recession after IQ2020.
Data reported periodically in this blog.
Source: Country Statistical Agencies https://www.bls.gov/bls/other.htm https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/related-sites.html
Manufacturing is underperforming in the lost cycle of the global recession. Manufacturing (NAICS) in Sep 2020 is lower by 9.7 percent relative to the peak in Jun 2007, as shown in Chart V-3A. Manufacturing (SIC) in Sep 2020 at 98.510 is lower by 12.3 percent relative to the peak at 112.3113 in Jun 2007. There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 2.9 percent per year from Sep 1919 to Sep 2020. Growth at 2.9 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 155.9263 in Sep 2020. The actual index NSA in Sep 2020 is 98.5100 which is 36.8 percent below trend. The underperformance of manufacturing in Mar-Aug 2020 originates partly in the earlier global recession augmented by the current global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19. Manufacturing grew at the average annual rate of 3.3 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2006. Growth at 3.3 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 163.8334 in Sep 2020. The actual index NSA in Sep 2020 is 98.5100, which is 39.9 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 1.7 percent between Dec 1986 and Sep 2020. Using trend growth of 1.7 percent per year, the index would increase to 134.2658 in Sep 2020. The output of manufacturing at 98.5100 in Sep 2020 is 26.6 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Using the NAICS (North American Industry Classification System), manufacturing output fell from the high of 110.5147 in Jun 2007 to the low of 86.3800 in Apr 2009 or 21.8 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased from 86.3800 in Apr 2009 to 99.7738 in Sep 2020 or 15.5 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased at the annual equivalent rate of 3.5 percent from Dec 1986 to Dec 2006. Growth at 3.5 percent would increase the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 165.4105 in Sep 2020. The NAICS index at 99.7738 in Sep 2020 is 39.7 below trend. The NAICS manufacturing output index grew at 1.7 percent annual equivalent from Dec 1999 to Dec 2006. Growth at 1.7 percent would raise the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 132.2561 in Sep 2020. The NAICS index at 99.7738 in Sep 2020 is 24.6 percent below trend under this alternative calculation.
Chart V-3A, United States Manufacturing NSA, Dec 2007 to Sep 2020
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm
Chart V-3A, United States Manufacturing (NAICS) NSA, Jun 2007 to Sep 2020
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm
Chart V-3B provides the civilian noninstitutional population of the United States, or those available for work. The civilian noninstitutional population increased from 231.713 million in Jun 2007 to 260.742 million in Sep 2020 or 29.029 million.
Chart V-3B, United States, Civilian Noninstitutional Population, Million, NSA, Jan 2007 to Sep 2020
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Chart V-3C, United States, Payroll Manufacturing Jobs, NSA, Jan 2007 to Sep 2020, Thousands
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Chart V-3D provides the index of US manufacturing (NAICS) from Jan 1972 to Sep 2020. The index continued increasing during the decline of manufacturing jobs after the early 1980s. There are likely effects of changes in the composition of manufacturing with also changes in productivity and trade. There is sharp decline in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. There is initial recovery in May-Aug 2020.
Chart V-3D, United States Manufacturing (NAICS) NSA, Jan 1972 to Sep 2020
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm
Chart V-3E provides the US noninstitutional civilian population, or those in condition of working, from Jan 1948, when first available, to Aug 2020. The noninstitutional civilian population increased from 170.042 million in Jun 1981 to 260.742 million in Sep 2020, or 90.700 million.
Chart V-3E, United States, Civilian Noninstitutional Population, Million, NSA, Jan 1948 to Sep 2020
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Chart V-3C, United States, Payroll Manufacturing Jobs, NSA, Jan 1939 to Sep 2020, Thousands
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Table V-3B, Germany, Manufacturing Orders and Manufacturing Output, ∆% Month and 12 Months
MFG New Orders Month ∆% | MFG New Orders 12 Months ∆% | MFG Output Month ∆% | MFG Output 12 Month ∆% | |
Sep 2020 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 2.0 | -5.4 |
Aug | 4.9 | -3.8 | 0.1 | -13.3 |
Jul | 3.3 | -6.8 | 3.1 | -11.1 |
Jun | 28.8 | -5.4 | 11.2 | -7.4 |
May | 10.4 | -33.4 | 9.9 | -28.6 |
Apr | -26.0 | -36.9 | -20.7 | -29.8 |
Mar | -14.9 | -11.9 | -11.0 | -9.2 |
Feb | -1.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 | -3.7 |
Jan | 4.8 | -1.9 | 2.3 | -4.2 |
Dec 2019 | -1.5 | -7.1 | -1.5 | -4.5 |
Nov | -1.1 | -8.5 | 0.7 | -6.9 |
Oct | -0.1 | -5.4 | -1.2 | -5.6 |
Sep | 0.8 | -1.8 | -0.8 | -1.1 |
Aug | -0.5 | -9.0 | 0.2 | -7.4 |
Jul | -0.8 | -1.8 | -0.2 | -0.6 |
Jun | 1.3 | -11.0 | -1.2 | -14.4 |
May | -1.4 | -3.6 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
Apr | -0.7 | -5.2 | -2.6 | -3.9 |
Mar | 2.4 | -6.2 | 0.7 | -3.4 |
Feb | -3.9 | -7.2 | -0.1 | 0.1 |
Jan | -3.5 | -3.6 | -1.0 | -3.1 |
Dec 2018 | 1.6 | -8.2 | 1.1 | -6.7 |
Dec 2017 | 2.5 | 3.9 | -0.4 | 3.7 |
Dec 2016 | 4.4 | 11.2 | -1.6 | 2.0 |
Dec 2015 | -1.5 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
Source: Federal Statistical Agency of Germany, https://www.destatis.de/EN/Home/_node.html
Table V-3 provides the latest available estimates of GDP for the regions and countries followed in this blog from IQ2012 to IVQ2018 available now for all countries. There are estimates for all countries for IQ2019 and for IIQ2019 for most countries. There are preliminary estimates for most countries for IIIQ2019 and for IVQ2019. There are some estimates for IQ2020. Growth is weak throughout most of the world.
- Japan. The GDP of Japan increased 1.2 percent in IQ2012, 4.9 percent at SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) and 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier but part of the jump could be the low level a year earlier because of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan is experiencing difficulties with the overvalued yen because of worldwide capital flight originating in zero interest rates with risk aversion in an environment of softer growth of world trade. Japan’s GDP fell 0.7 percent in IIQ2012 at the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of minus 2.9 percent, which is much lower than 4.9 percent in IQ2012. Growth of 2.9 percent in IIQ2012 in Japan relative to IIQ2011 has effects of the low level of output because of Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IIIQ2012 at the SAAR of minus 1.5 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2012 at the SAAR of 1.1 percent and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan grew 1.2 percent in IQ2013 at the SAAR of 5.0 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2013 at the SAAR of 3.1 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP grew 0.8 percent in IIIQ2013 at the SAAR of 3.4 percent and increased 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Japan’s GDP changed 0.0 percent at the SAAR of minus 0.1 percent, increasing 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 1.0 percent in IQ2014 at the SAAR of 4.0 percent and increased 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Japan’s GDP fell 1.9 percent at the SAAR of minus 7.5 percent and fell 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 at the SAAR of 0.4 percent and fell 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, Japan’s GDP grew 0.5 percent, at the SAAR of 2.0 percent, decreasing 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 1.4 percent in IQ2015 at the SAAR of 5.6 percent and increased 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2015 at the SAAR of 0.4 percent and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan decreased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2015 at the SAAR of minus 0.2 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IVQ2015 at the SAAR of minus 1.5 percent and grew 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, the GDP of Japan increased 0.5 percent at the SAAR of 2.1 percent and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2016 at the SAAR of 0.5 percent and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of Japan increased 0.2 percent at the SAAR of 0.9 percent and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2016 at the SAAR of 1.2 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, the GDP of Japan increased 1.2 percent at the SAAR of 4.8 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2017 at the SAAR of 1.2 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, the GDP of Japan increased 0.6 percent at the SAAR of 2.3 percent and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2017, at the SAAR of 1.9 percent, and increased 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, the GDP of Japan decreased 0.4 percent, at the SAAR of minus 1.7 percent and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2018, at the SAAR of 1.5 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, the GDP of Japan contracted 0.8 percent at the SAAR of minus 3.2 percent and decreased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IVQ2018, at the SAAR of 2.3 percent and decreased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, the GDP of Japan increased 0.7 percent at the SAAR of 2.8 percent and grew 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2019, at the SAAR of 1.6 percent and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, the GDP of Japan changed 0.0 percent at the SAAR of 0.2 percent and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP decreased 1.8 percent in IVQ2019, at the SAAR of minus 7.0 percent and decreased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2020, the GDP of Japan contracted 0.6 percent at the SAAR of minus 2.3 percent and decreased 1.8 percent relative to a year. The GDP of Japan contracted 7.9 percent in IIQ2020 at the SAAR of minus 28.1 percent and decreased 9.9 percent relative to a year earlier.
- China. China’s GDP grew 1.9 percent in IQ2012, annualizing to 7.8 percent, and 8.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 2.1 percent in IIQ2012, which annualizes to 8.7 percent, and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 1.8 percent in IIIQ2012, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and 7.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, China grew at 2.0 percent, which annualizes at 8.2 percent, and 8.1 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, China grew at 1.9 percent, which annualizes at 7.8 percent, and 7.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, China grew at 1.8 percent, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 2.1 percent in IIIQ2013, which annualizes at 8.7 percent, and increased 7.9 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 1.6 percent in IVQ2013, which annualized to 6.6 percent, and 7.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 7.5 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent in IQ2014 that is equivalent to 7.4 percent per year. GDP grew 7.6 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is annual equivalent 7.4 percent. In IIIQ2014, GDP grew 7.2 percent relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is 7.4 percent in annual equivalent. GDP grew 1.7 percent in IVQ2014, which is 7.0 percent in annual equivalent and 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2015, GDP grew 1.9 percent, which is equivalent to 7.8 in a year and 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 1.8 percent in IIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.4 percent in a year, and grew 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.7 percent in IIIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent in a year, and grew 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.6 percent in IVQ2015, which is equivalent to 6.6 percent in a year and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, GDP grew at 1.5 percent, which is equivalent to 6.1 percent in a year, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.8 percent in IIQ2016, which is annual equivalent to 7.4 percent, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, GDP grew at 1.7 percent, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent in a year and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, GDP grew at 1.6 percent, equivalent to 6.6 percent in a year, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 7.0 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased at 1.7 percent, which is 7.0 percent in annual equivalent. In IIQ2017, GDP grew at 1.8 percent, which is annual equivalent at 7.4 percent, and increased 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.6 percent in IIIQ2017, which is annual equivalent at 6.6 percent, and increased at 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, GDP grew 1.6 percent, which is annual equivalent to 6.6 percent, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.9 percent in IQ2018, which is annual equivalent at 7.8 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2018, GDP grew at 1.7 percent, which is annual equivalent to 7.0 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.3 percent in IIIQ2018, which is annual equivalent at 5.3 percent, and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2018, GDP grew at 1.5 percent, which is annual equivalent to 6.1 percent, and increased 6.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.9 percent in IQ2019, which is annual equivalent to 7.8 percent, and increased 6.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2019, GDP grew at 1.3 percent, which is annual equivalent to 5.3 percent and increased 6.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.0 percent in IIIQ2019, which is annual equivalent to 4.1 percent, and increased 6.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2019, GDP grew at 1.6 percent, which is annual equivalent to 6.6 percent, and increased 6.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP contracted minus 10.0 percent in IQ2020, which is annual equivalent to minus 65.6 percent, and contracted minus 6.8 percent in IQ2020 relative to a year earlier, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. GDP grew at 11.7 percent in IIQ2020, which is equivalent to 55.7 percent in a year and grew 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2020, GDP grew 2.7 percent, which is annual equivalent at 11.2 percent, and grew 4.9 percent relative to a year earlier. There was decennial change in leadership in China (http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/special/18cpcnc/index.htm). Xi Jinping initiated a second term of leadership in Oct 2017 (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-10/25/c_136705344.htm). Growth rates of GDP of China in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier have been declining from 2011 to 2020.
- Euro Area. GDP fell 0.2 percent in the euro area in IQ2012 and decreased 0.5 in IQ2012 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP contracted 0.3 percent IIQ2012 and fell 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.1 percent and declined 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.4 percent relative to the prior quarter and fell 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, the GDP of the euro area fell 0.4 percent and decreased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2013, euro area GDP increased 0.3 percent and changed 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2013 and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The euro area’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 0.7 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The euro area’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2016 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, euro area GDP increased 0.7 percent and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2017 and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.8 percent and grew 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area grew 0.8 percent in IVQ2017 and increased 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent and grew 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area grew 0.3 percent in IIQ2018 and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2018 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2019 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2019 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2020, the GDP of the euro area decreased 3.7 percent and decreased 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area contracted 11.8 percent in IIQ2020 and contracted 14.7 percent relative to a year earlier.
- Germany. The GDP of Germany increased 0.2 percent in IQ2012 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier but 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier when adjusted for calendar effects (CA). In IIIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IVQ2012 and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, Germany’s GDP decreased 0.5 percent and fell 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 1.1 percent and grew 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2013 and grew 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 1.0 percent in IQ2014 and grew 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Germany’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.9 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany decreased 0.5 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2015 and grew 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and grew 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2015 and grew 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, the GDP of Germany increased 0.9 percent and grew 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 3.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of Germany increased 0.2 percent and grew 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2016 and grew 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, the GDP of Germany increased 1.2 percent and grew 3.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2017 and grew 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier and 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier adjusting for calendar effects (CA). In IIIQ2017, the GDP of Germany increased 0.9 percent and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier and 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2017, 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier and 3.6 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany decreased 0.2 percent in IQ2018 and grew 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier and 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2018, 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier and 2.0 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany decreased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2018, increasing 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier and 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2018, increasing 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier and 0.3 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany increased 0.6 percent in IQ2019, increasing 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier and increasing 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP contracted 0.3 percent in IIQ2019, decreased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier and increased 0.1 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2019, increasing 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier and increasing 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2019, increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP decreased 2.0 percent in IQ2020, decreased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier and decreased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany decreased 9.7 percent in IIQ2020, decreased 11.3 percent relative to a year earlier and decreased 11.3 percent relative to a year earlier (CA).
- United States. Growth of US GDP in IQ2012 was 0.8 percent, at SAAR of 3.2 percent and higher by 2.7 percent relative to IQ2011. US GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2012, 1.7 percent at SAAR and 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, US GDP grew 0.1 percent, 0.5 percent at SAAR and 2.5 percent relative to IIIQ2011. In IVQ2012, US GDP grew 0.1 percent, 0.5 percent at SAAR and 1.5 percent relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, US GDP grew at 3.6 percent SAAR, 0.9 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.6 percent relative to the same quarter in 2012. In IIQ2013, US GDP grew at 0.5 percent in SAAR, 0.1 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.3 percent relative to IIQ2012. US GDP grew at 3.2 percent in SAAR in IIIQ2013, 0.8 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.9 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/11/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-331-percent-in.html earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/10/dollar-carry-trades-induced-from-zero.html). In IVQ2013, US GDP grew 0.8 percent at 3.2 percent SAAR and 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, US GDP decreased 0.3 percent, increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier and fell 1.1 percent at SAAR. In IIQ2014, US GDP increased 1.4 percent at 5.5 percent SAAR and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP increased 1.2 percent in IIIQ2014 at 5.0 percent SAAR and increased 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, US GDP increased 0.6 percent at SAAR of 2.3 percent and increased 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.9 percent in IQ2015 at SAAR of 3.8 percent and grew 4.1 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.7 percent in IIQ2015, increasing 0.7 percent in the quarter and 3.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 at SAAR of 1.5 percent and grew 2.6 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 0.6 percent in IVQ2015, increasing 0.2 percent in the quarter and 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, US GDP grew 0.6 percent at SAAR of 2.3 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 1.3 percent in IIQ2016, increasing 0.3 percent in the quarter and 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, US GDP grew 0.5 percent at SAAR of 2.2 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.5 percent in IVQ2016, increasing 0.6 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, US GDP grew 0.6 percent at SAAR of 2.3 percent and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 1.7 percent in IIQ2017, increasing 0.4 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, US GDP grew 0.7 percent at SAAR of 2.9 percent and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 3.9 percent in IVQ2017, increasing 1.0 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, US GDP grew at SAAR of 3.8 percent, increasing 0.9 percent in the quarter, and increasing 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.7 percent in IIQ2018, increasing 0.7 percent in the quarter, and increasing 3.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.1 percent, increasing 0.5 percent in the quarter, and increasing 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 1.3 percent in IVQ2018, increasing 0.3 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.9 percent, increasing 0.7 percent in the quarter and increasing 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 1.5 percent in IIQ2019, increasing 0.4 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.6 percent, increasing 0.6 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.4 percent in IVQ2019, increasing 0.6 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2020, US GDP contracted at SAAR of minus 5.0 percent, decreasing 1.3 percent in the quarter, and increasing 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2020, US GDP contracted at SAAR of minus 31.4 percent, decreasing 9.0 percent in the quarter and decreasing 9.0 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 33.1 percent in IIIQ2020, increasing 7.4 percent in the quarter, and decreasing 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier.
- United Kingdom. In IQ2012, UK GDP increased 0.7 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, GDP fell 0.1 percent relative to IQ2012 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, GDP increased 1.2 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier. In IVQ2012, GDP fell 0.2 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Fiscal consolidation in an environment of weakening economic growth is much more challenging. GDP increased 1.4 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 0.5 percent in IQ2013 relative to IVQ2012. In IIQ2013, GDP increased 0.8 percent and 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.9 percent in IIIQ2013 and 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IVQ2013 and 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, GDP increased 0.8 percent and 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2014 and 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2014 and 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, GDP increased 0.6 percent and 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2015 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2016 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2016 and grew 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IVQ2016 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2017 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, GDP increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2017 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2018 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, GDP increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2018 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, GDP increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2019 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, GDP increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2019 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2020, GDP decreased 2.5 percent and decreased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP decreased 19.8 percent in IIQ2020 and decreased 21.5 percent relative to a year earlier.
- Italy. The GDP of Italy contracted 13.0 percent in IIQ2020 and contracted 18.0 percent relative to a year earlier in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Italy’s GDP contracted 5.5 percent in IQ2020 and decreased 5.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy decreased 0.2 percent in IVQ2019 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2019 and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2019, Italy’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2019 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2018, the GDP of Italy increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2018 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2018, the GDP of Italy increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IQ2018 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, the GDP of Italy increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2017 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2017, the GDP of Italy increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, the GDP of Italy increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2016, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2015, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IVQ2014 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.1 percent in IQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IVQ2013 and fell 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2013 and fell 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.9 percent in IQ2013 and declined 2.9 percent relative to IQ2013. GDP had been growing during six consecutive quarters but at very low rates from IQ2010 to IIQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell in seven consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at increasingly higher rates of contraction from 0.5 percent in IIIQ2011 to 0.9 percent in IVQ2011, 1.2 percent in IQ2012, 0.7 percent in IIQ2012 and 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012. The pace of decline accelerated to minus 0.8 percent in IVQ2012 and minus 0.9 percent in IQ2013. GDP contracted cumulatively 5.4 percent in seven consecutive quarterly contractions from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at the annual equivalent rate of minus 3.1 percent. The year-on-year rate has fallen from 2.1 percent in IVQ2010 to minus 3.2 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.9 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.2 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.5 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.9 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.4 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.5 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.3 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IIIQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.3 percent in IVQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.8 percent in IIQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IIIQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.9 percent in IVQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.4 percent in IQ2018 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.1 percent in IIQ2018 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2018 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2018 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2019 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2019 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIIQ2019 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2019 relative to a year earlier. GDP contracted 5.6 percent in IQ2020 relative to a year earlier and contracted 18.0 percent in IIQ2020 relative to a year earlier in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Istat updated the national accounts of Italy, using 2015 base, with the release of Oct 2, 2020 (https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/247904). Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/), the GDP of Italy (using the base of 2010) in IIQ2020 of €354,678.7 million (https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/246771) is lower by 21.7 percent relative to €452,802.5 million in IQ2008 (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/). Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/), the GDP of Italy increased from €392,018.4 million in IQ1998 to €452,802.5 million in IQ2008 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.5 percent. The fiscal adjustment of Italy is significantly more difficult with the economy not growing especially on the prospects of increasing government revenue. The strategy is for reforms to improve productivity, facilitating future fiscal consolidation.
- France. France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2012 and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IIQ2012 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2013 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2013 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2013 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2015, France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2015, the GDP of France increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France decreased 0.2 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, the GDP of France increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2017, the GDP of France increased 0.7 percent and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIIQ2017 and increased 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, the GDP of France increased 0.8 percent and increased 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2018 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2018, the GDP of France increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2018 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2018, the GDP of France increased 0.7 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2019 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2019, the GDP of France increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2019 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2019, the GDP of France decreased 0.2 percent and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 5.9 percent in IQ2020 and decreased 5.7 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 13.8 percent in IIQ2020 and decreased 18.9 percent relative to a year earlier.
Table V-3, Percentage Changes of GDP Quarter on Prior Quarter and on Same Quarter Year Earlier, ∆%
QOQ: Quarter relative to prior quarter; SAAR: seasonally adjusted annual rate
Source: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.bls.gov/bls/other.htm https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/related-sites.html
Table V-3C provides first estimates of GDP in the euro area. GDP grew at high rates in IIIQ2020 relative to IIQ2020: 12.1 percent for the euro area, 8.2 percent for Germany, 18.2 percent for France and 16.1 percent for Italy. Contractions relative to a year earlier softened to minus 3.9 percent for the euro area, 4.2 percent for Germany, 4.3 percent for France and 4.7 percent for Italy.
Table V-3C, Flash Estimates of Percentage Changes of GDP Quarter on Prior Quarter and on Same Quarter Year Earlier, ∆%
IIIQ2020/IIQ2020 | IIIQ2020/IIIQ2019 | |
Euro Area | 12.1 | -3.9 |
Germany | 8.2 | -4.2 |
France | 18.2 | -4.3 |
Italy | 16.1 | -4.7 |
QOQ: Quarter relative to prior quarter; SAAR: seasonally adjusted annual rate
Source: Eurostat: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat Country Statistical Agencies http://www.bls.gov/bls/other.htm https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/related-sites.html
Table V-4 provides two types of data: growth of exports and imports in the latest available months and in the past 12 months; and contributions of net trade (exports less imports) to growth of real GDP.
- Japan. Japan provides the most worrisome data (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/global-decline-of-values-of-financial.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/07/valuation-of-risk-financial-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/fluctuating-financial-asset-valuations.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/dollar-revaluation-squeezing-corporate.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/patience-on-interest-rate-increases.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/monetary-policy-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/valuation-risks-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/interest-rate-risks-world-inflation.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/global-financial-risk-world-inflation.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations_8763.html http://cmpass ocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/paring-quantitative-easing-policy-and_4699.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/thirty-one-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/12/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_24.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/11/contraction-of-united-states-real_25.html and for GDP http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what_13.html). In Sep 2020, Japan’s exports decreased 4.9 percent in 12 months while imports decreased 17.2 percent. The second part of Table V-4 shows that net trade added 0.8 percent in IQ2012, deducting 2.0 percent in IIQ2012. Net trade deducted 1.9 percent in IIIQ2012. Net traded deducted 0.4 percent in IVQ2012. Net trade added 1.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2013 but deducted 0.1 percentage points in IIQ2013, deducting 1.3 percentage points in IIIQ2013 and 2.2 percentage points in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2014. Net trade added 4.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2014 and deducted 0.3 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 1.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2014. Net trade contributed 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2015 and deducted 0.5-percentage points in IIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2015. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2015 and added 1.4 percentage points in IQ2016. Net trade contributed 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade added 1.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2016 and contributed 1.5 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade contributed 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017 and deducted 0.9 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade contributed 2.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017 and deducted 0.3 percentage-point in IVQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018 and contributed 0.0 percentage points in IIQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018 and deducted 2.0 percentage points in IVQ2018. Net trade contributed 2.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2019 with export contraction deducting 1.3 percent and import contraction contributing 3.4 percent. Net trade deducted 1.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2019. Net trade deducted 1.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade contributed 2.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.9 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2020 with export contraction deducting 3.8 percentage points and import contraction adding 2.9 percentage points. Net trade deducted 0.9 percentage points in IQ2020 with export contraction deducting 3.8 percentage points and import contraction adding 2.9 percentage points. Net trade deducted 10.9 percentage points in IIQ2020 with export contraction deducting 11.3 percentage points and import contraction contributing 0.4 percentage points.
- China. The exports of China increased 11.4 percent in Oct 2020 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 4.7 percent.
- Germany. Germany’s exports increased 2.4 percent in the month of Aug 2020 and decreased 10.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2020. Germany’s imports increased 5.8 percent in the month of Aug 2020 and decreased 7.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Au 2020. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to growth of GDP in IQ2012, contributed 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2012, contributed 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2012, deducted 0.5 percentage points in IVQ2012, deducted 0.3 percentage points in IQ2013 and deducted 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded deducted 0.0 percentage points from Germany’s GDP growth in IIIQ2013 and added 0.9 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2014 and added 0.7 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points in IVQ2015 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade added 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2017. Net trade added 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018 and deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2019. Net traded added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.8 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2020. Net trade deducted 2.8 percentage points in IIQ2020.
- United Kingdom. Net trade contributed 0.7 percentage points in IIQ2013. In IIIQ2013, net trade deducted 1.7 percentage points from UK growth. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to UK value added in IVQ2013. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to UK value added in IQ2014 and 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2014 and added 0.0 percentage points in IVQ2014. Net traded deducted 0.4 percentage points from growth in IQ2015. Net trade added 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.1-percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 1.8 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade added 1.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2016. Net trade added 0.33 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017 and contributed 0.01 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.11 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.28 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade added 0.42 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.48 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.45 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.29 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2018. Net trade deducted 2.12 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2019. Net trade contributed 2.81 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2019. Net trade contributed 1.13 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade contributed 0.41 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.48 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2020. Net trade contributed 3.54 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2020.
- France. France’s exports increased 6.2 percent in Sep 2020 while imports increased 0.6 percent. France’s exports decreased 10.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2020 and imports decreased 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Net traded added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IIIQ2012 and 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IQ2013 and added 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2013, deducting 1.7 percentage points in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IVQ2013 and deducted 0.1 percentage points in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IIQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to France’s GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.6 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015 and deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.3 percentage points to GDP in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP in IIIQ2016 and added 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP in IQ2017 and added 0.9 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade added 0.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade added 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to GDP in IVQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP in IQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ219. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points in IQ2020. Net trade deducted 2.5 percentage points in IIQ2020.
- United States. US exports increased 2.2 percent in Aug 2020 and goods exports decreased 16.1 percent in Jan-Aug 2020 relative to a year earlier. Imports increased 3.2 percent in Aug 2020 and goods imports decreased 11.2 percent in Jan-Aug 2020 relative to a year earlier. Net trade added 0.27 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2012 and deducted 0.08 percentage points in IIIQ2012, adding 0.57 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade added 0.40 percentage points to US GDP growth in IQ2013 and deducted 0.33 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded subtracted 0.14 percentage points from US GDP growth in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 1.23 percentage points to US GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 1.11 percentage points from US GDP growth in IQ2014 and deducted 0.46 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade added 0.10 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2014. Net trade deducted 1.05 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 1.38 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.25 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.97 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.22 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.05 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.22 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade added 0.08 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade deducted 1.13 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2016. Net trade added 0.36 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.39 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2017. Net trade added 0.08 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.49 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade added 0.29 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018. Net trade added 0.25 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.83 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018, deducting 0.27 percentage points in IVQ2018. Net trade added 0.55 percentage points in IQ2019, deducting 0.79 percentage points in IIQ2019. Net trade added 0.04 percentage points in IIIQ2019. Net trade added 1.52 percentage points in IVQ2019, adding 1.13 percentage points in IQ2020. Net trade added 0.62 percentage points in IIQ2020, deducting 3.09 percentage points in IIIQ2020.
Industrial production decreased 0.6 percent in Sep 2020 and increased 0.4 percent in Aug 2020 after increasing 4.2 percent in Jul 2020, with all data seasonally adjusted. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System conducted the annual revision of industrial production released on Mar 27, 2019 (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/revisions/Current/DefaultRev.htm):
“The Federal Reserve has revised its index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization.[1] On net, the revisions to the growth rates for total IP for recent years were small and positive, with the estimates for 2016 and 2017 a bit higher and the estimates for 2015 and 2018 slightly lower.[2] Total IP is still reported to have increased from the end of the recession in mid-2009 through late 2014 before declining in 2015 and rebounding in mid-2016. Subsequently, the index advanced around 7 1/2 percent over 2017 and 2018.
Capacity for total industry expanded modestly in each year from 2015 to 2017 before advancing 1 1/2 percent in 2018; it is expected to advance about 2 percent in 2019. Revisions for recent years were very small and showed slightly less expansion in most years relative to earlier reports.
In the fourth quarter of 2018, capacity utilization for total industry stood at 79.4 percent, about 3/4 percentage point above its previous estimate and about 1/2 percentage point below its long-run (1972–2018) average. The utilization rate in 2017 is also higher than its previous estimate.”
The report of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System states (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/default.htm):
“Industrial production fell 0.6 percent in September, its first decline after four consecutive months of gains. The index increased at an annual rate of 39.8 percent for the third quarter as a whole. Although production has recovered more than half of its February to April decline, the September reading was still 7.1 percent below its pre-pandemic February level. Manufacturing output decreased 0.3 percent in September and was 6.4 percent below February's level. The output of utilities dropped 5.6 percent, as demand for air conditioning fell by more than usual in September. Mining production increased 1.7 percent in September; even so, it was 14.8 percent below a year earlier. At 101.5 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 7.3 percent lower in September than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.5 percentage point in September to 71.5 percent, a rate that is 8.3 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2019) average but 7.3 percentage points above its low in April.”
Manufacturing decreased 22.3 percent from the peak in Jun 2007 to the trough in Apr 2009 and increased 18.3 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Dec 2019. Manufacturing increased 12.8 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Sep 2020. Manufacturing in Sep 2020 is lower by 12.3 percent relative to the peak in Jun 2007. The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. US economic growth has been at only 1.8 percent on average in the cyclical expansion in the 45 quarters from IIIQ2009 to IIIQ2020 and in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Boskin (2010Sep) measures that the US economy grew at 6.2 percent in the first four quarters and 4.5 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the second quarter of 1975; and at 7.7 percent in the first four quarters and 5.8 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the first quarter of 1983 (Professor Michael J. Boskin, Summer of Discontent, Wall Street Journal, Sep 2, 2010 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882304575465462926649950.html). There are new calculations using the revision of US GDP and personal income data since 1929 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (http://bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) and the first estimate of GDP for IIIQ2020 (https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2020-10/gdp3q20_adv.pdf). The average of 7.7 percent in the first four quarters of major cyclical expansions is in contrast with the rate of growth in the first four quarters of the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010 of only 2.8 percent obtained by dividing GDP of $15,557.3 billion in IIQ2010 by GDP of $15,134.1 billion in IIQ2009 {[($15,557.3/$15,134.1) -1]100 = 2.8%], or accumulating the quarter on quarter growth rates (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/11/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-331-percent-in.html earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/10/dollar-carry-trades-induced-from-zero.html). The expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1986 was at the average annual growth rate of 5.7 percent, 5.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1986, 5.1 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1986, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1989, 4.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1989, 4.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1989, 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1989. 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1990, 4.4 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1990, 4.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1990, 4.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1990, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1992, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1994 and at 7.9 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/11/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-331-percent-in.html earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/10/dollar-carry-trades-induced-from-zero.html). The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dates a contraction of the US from IQ1990 (Jul) to IQ1991 (Mar) (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html). The expansion lasted until another contraction beginning in IQ2001 (Mar). US GDP contracted 1.3 percent from the pre-recession peak of $8983.9 billion of chained 2009 dollars in IIIQ1990 to the trough of $8865.6 billion in IQ1991 (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IIIQ2020 and in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event would have accumulated to 45.8 percent. GDP in IIIQ2020 would be $22,981.0 billion (in constant dollars of 2012) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $4397.0 billion than actual $18,584.0 billion. There are more than four trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 30.6 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 17.7 percent of the effective labor force with the largest part originating in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event (Section I and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/10/increasingvaluations-of-risk-financial.html). Unemployment is decreasing while employment is increasing in initial adjustment of the lockdown of economic activity in the global recession resulting from the COVID-19 event (https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-october-2020.htm). US GDP in IIIQ2020 is 19.1 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $15,762.0 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $18,584.0 billion in IIIQ2020 or 17.9 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.3 percent. Professor John H. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. Cochrane (2016May02) measures GDP growth in the US at average 3.5 percent per year from 1950 to 2000 and only at 1.76 percent per year from 2000 to 2015 with only at 2.0 percent annual equivalent in the current expansion. Cochrane (2016May02) proposes drastic changes in regulation and legal obstacles to private economic activity. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 2.9 percent per year from Sep 1919 to Sep 2020. Growth at 2.9 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 155.9263 in Sep 2020. The actual index NSA in Sep 2020 is 98.5100 which is 36.8 percent below trend. The underperformance of manufacturing in Mar-Aug 2020 originates partly in the earlier global recession augmented by the current global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19. Manufacturing grew at the average annual rate of 3.3 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2006. Growth at 3.3 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 163.8334 in Sep 2020. The actual index NSA in Sep 2020 is 98.5100, which is 39.9 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 1.7 percent between Dec 1986 and Sep 2020. Using trend growth of 1.7 percent per year, the index would increase to 134.2658 in Sep 2020. The output of manufacturing at 98.5100 in Sep 2020 is 26.6 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Using the NAICS (North American Industry Classification System), manufacturing output fell from the high of 110.5147 in Jun 2007 to the low of 86.3800 in Apr 2009 or 21.8 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased from 86.3800 in Apr 2009 to 99.7738 in Sep 2020 or 15.5 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased at the annual equivalent rate of 3.5 percent from Dec 1986 to Dec 2006. Growth at 3.5 percent would increase the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 165.4105 in Sep 2020. The NAICS index at 99.7738 in Sep 2020 is 39.7 below trend. The NAICS manufacturing output index grew at 1.7 percent annual equivalent from Dec 1999 to Dec 2006. Growth at 1.7 percent would raise the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 132.2561 in Sep 2020. The NAICS index at 99.7738 in Sep 2020 is 24.6 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Table I-13 provides national income by industry without capital consumption adjustment (WCCA). “Private industries” or economic activities have share of 86.4 percent in IIQ2020. Most of US national income is in the form of services. In Oct 2020, there were 143.459 million nonfarm jobs NSA in the US, according to estimates of the establishment survey of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm Table B-1). Total private jobs of 121.524 million NSA in Oct 2020 accounted for 84.7 percent of total nonfarm jobs of 143.459 million, of which 12.229 million, or 10.1 percent of total private jobs and 8.5 percent of total nonfarm jobs, were in manufacturing. Private service-providing jobs were 101.138 million NSA in Oct 2020, or 70.5 percent of total nonfarm jobs and 83.2 percent of total private-sector jobs. Manufacturing has share of 8.7 percent in US national income in IIQ2020 and durable goods 5.1 percent, as shown in Table I-13. Most income in the US originates in services. Subsidies and similar measures designed to increase manufacturing jobs will not increase economic growth and employment and may actually reduce growth by diverting resources away from currently employment-creating activities because of the drain of taxation.
Table V-4, Growth of Trade and Contributions of Net Trade to GDP Growth, ∆% and % Points
Exports | Exports 12 M ∆% | Imports | Imports 12 M ∆% | |
USA | 2.2 Aug SA | -16.1 Jan-Aug NSA | 3.2 Aug SA | -11.2 Jan-Aug NSA |
Japan | Sep 2020 -4.9 Aug 2020 -14.8 Jul 2020 -19.2 Jun 2020 -26.2 May 2020 -28.3 Apr 2020 -21.9 Mar 2020 -11.7 Feb 2020 -1.0 Jan 2020 -2.6 Dec 2019 -6.3 Nov 2019 -7.9 Oct 2019 -9.2 Sep 2019 -5.2 Aug 2019 -8.2 Jul 2019 -1.6 Jun 2019 -6.7 May 2019 -7.8 Apr 2019 -2.4 Mar 2019 -2.4 Feb 2019 -1.2 Jan 2019 -8.4 Dec 2018 -3.8 Nov 2018 0.1 Oct 2018 8.2 Sep 2018 -1.2 Aug 2018 6.6 Jul 2018 3.9 Jun 2018 6.7 May 2018 8.1 Apr 2018 7.8 Mar 2018 2.1 Feb 2018 1.8 Jan 2018 12.2 Dec 2017 9.3 Nov 2017 16.2 Oct 2017 14.0 Sep 2017 14.1 Aug 2017 18.1 Jul 2017 13.4 Jun 2017 9.7 May 2017 14.9 Apr 2017 7.5 Mar 2017 12.0 Feb 2017 11.3 Jan 2017 1.3 Dec 2016 5.4 Nov 2016 -0.4 Oct 2016 -10.3 Sep 2016 -6.9 Aug 2016 9.6 Jul 2016 -14.0 Jun 2016 -7.8 May 2016 -11.3 Apr 2016 -10.1 Mar 2016 -6.8 Feb 2016 -4.0 Jan 2016 -12.9 Dec 2015 -8.0 Nov 2015 -3.3 Oct 2015 -2.1 Sep 2015 0.6 Aug 3.1 Jul 2015 7.6 Jun 2015 9.5 May 2015 2.4 Apr 8.0 Mar 8.5 Feb 2.4 Jan 17.0 Dec 12.9 Nov 4.9 Oct 9.6 Sep 6.9 Aug -1.3 Jul 3.9 Jun -2.0 May 2014 -2.7 Apr 2014 5.1 Mar 2014 1.8 Feb 2014 9.5 Jan 2014 9.5 Dec 2013 15.3 Nov 2013 18.4 Oct 2013 18.6 Sep 2013 11.5 Aug 2013 14.7 Jul 2013 12.2 Jun 2013 7.4 May 2013 10.1 Apr 2013 3.8 Mar 2013 1.1 Feb 2013 -2.9 Jan 2013 6.4 Dec -5.8 Nov -4.1 Oct -6.5 Sep -10.3 Aug -5.8 Jul -8.1 | Sep 2020 -17.2 Aug 2020 -20.8 Jul 2020 -22.3 Jun 2020 -14.4 May 2020 -26.2 Apr 2020 -7.2 Mar 2020 -5.0 Feb 2020 -14.0 Jan 2020 -3.6 Dec 2019 -4.9 Nov 2019 -15.7 Oct 2019 -14.8 Sep 2019 -1.5 Aug 2019 -12.0 Jul 2019 -1.2 Jun 2019 -5.2 May 2019 -1.5 Apr 2019 6.4 Mar 2019 1.1 Feb 2019 -6.7 Jan 2019 -0.6 Dec 2018 1.9 Nov 2018 12.5 Oct 2018 19.9 Sep 2018 7.0 Aug 2018 15.4 Jul 2018 14.6 Jun 2018 2.5 May 2018 14.0 Apr 2018 5.9 Mar 2018 -0.6 Feb 2018 16.6 Jan 2018 7.9 Dec 2017 14.9 Nov 2017 17.2 Oct 2017 18.9 Sep 2017 12.0 Aug 2017 15.2 Jul 2017 16.3 Jun 2017 15.5 May 2017 17.8 Apr 2017 15.1 Mar 2017 15.8 Feb 2017 1.2 Jan 2017 8.5 Dec 2016 -2.6 Nov 2016 -8.8 Oct 2016 -16.5 Sep 2016 -16.3 Aug 2016 -17.3 Jul 2016 -24.7 Jun 2016 -18.8 May 2016 -13.8 Apr 2016 -23.3 Mar 2016 -14.9 Feb 2016 -14.2 Jan 2016 -18.0 Dec 2015 -18.0 Nov 2015 -10.2 Oct 2015 -13.4 Sep 2015 -11.1 Aug -3.1 Jul 2015 -3.2 Jun 2015 -2.9 May 2015 -8.7 Apr -4.2 Mar -14.5 Feb -3.6 Jan -9.0 Dec 1.9 Nov -1.7 Oct 2.7 Sep 6.2 Aug -1.5 Jul 2.3 Jun 8.4 May 2014 -3.6 Apr 2013 3.4 Mar 2014 18.1 Feb 2014 9.0 Jan 2014 25.0 Dec 2013 24.7 Nov 2013 21.1 Oct 2013 26.1 Sep 2013 16.5 Aug 2013 16.0 Jul 2013 19.6 Jun 2013 11.8 May 2013 10.0 Apr 2013 9.4 Mar 2013 5.5 Feb 2013 7.3 Jan 2013 7.3 Dec 1.9 Nov 0.8 Oct -1.6 Sep 4.1 Aug -5.4 Jul 2.1 | ||
China | Jan-Dec 0.5 Jan-Dec 9.9 Jan-Dec 2017 7.9 Jan-Dec 2016 -7.7 Jan-Dec 2015 -2.8 | 2020 Oct 11.4 Sep 9.9 Aug 9.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 0.5 May -3.3 Apr 8.2 Mar -2.9 Jan-Feb -17.2 2019 Dec 7.6 Nov -1.1 Oct -0.9 Sep -3.2 Aug -1.0 Jul 3.3 Jun -1.3 May 1.1 Apr -2.7 Mar 14.2 Feb -20.7 Jan 9.3 2018 Dec -4.4 Nov 5.4 Oct 15.6 Sep 14.5 Aug 9.8 Jul 12.2 Jun 11.3 May 12.6 Apr 12.9 Mar -2.7 Feb 44.5 Jan 11.1 2017 Dec 10.9 Nov 12.3 Oct 6.9 Sep 8.1 Aug 5.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 11.3 May 8.7 Apr 8.0 Mar 16.4 Feb -1.3 Jan 7.9 2016 Dec 3.1 Nov 0.1 Oct -7.3 Sep -10.0 Aug -2.8 Jul -4.4 Jun -4.8 May -4.1 Apr -1.8 Mar 11.5 Feb -25.4 Jan -11.2 2015 -1.4 Dec -6.8 Nov -6.9 Oct -3.7 Sep -5.5 Aug -8.3 Jul 2.8 Jun -2.5 May -6.4 Apr -15.0 Mar 48.3 Feb -3.3 Jan 2014 9.7 Dec 4.7 Nov 11.6 Oct 15.3 Sep 9.4 Aug 14.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 7.0 May 0.9 Apr -6.6 Mar -18.1 Feb 10.6 Jan 2013 4.3 Dec 12.7 Nov 5.6 Oct -0.3 Sep 7.2 Aug 5.1 Jul -3.1 Jun 1.0 May 14.7 Apr 10.0 Mar 21.8 Feb 25.0 Jan | Jan-Dec -2.8 Jan-Dec 15.8 Jan-Dec 2017 15.9 Jan-Dec 2016 -5.5 Jan-Dec 2015 -14.1 | 2020 Oct 4.7 Sep 13.2 Aug -2.1 Jul 1.4 Jun 2.7 May -16.7 Apr -10.2 Mar -1.1 Jan-Feb -4.0 2019 Dec 16.3 Nov 0.3 Oct -6.4 Sep -8.5 Aug -5.6 Jul -5.3 Jun -7.3 May -8.5 Apr 4.0 Mar -7.6 Feb -5.2 Jan -1.5 2018 Dec -7.6 Nov 3.0 Oct 21.4 Sep 14.3 Aug 20.0 Jul 27.3 Jun 14.1 May 26.0 Apr 21.5 Mar 14.4 Feb 6.3 Jan 36.9 2017 Dec 4.5 Nov 17.7 Oct 17.2 Sep 18.7 Aug 13.3 Jul 11.0 Jun 17.2 May 14.8 Apr 11.9 Mar 20.3 Feb 38.1 Jan 16.7 2016 Dec -7.7 Nov 6.7 Oct -1.4 Sep -1.9 Aug 1.5 Jul -12.5 Jun -2.8 May -0.4 Apr -10.6 Mar -7.6 Feb -13.8 Jan -18.8 2015 -7.6 Dec -8.7 Nov -18.8 Oct -20.4 Sep -13.8 Aug -8.1 Jul -6.1 Jun -17.6 May -12.7 Mar -20.5 Feb -19.9 Jan 2014 -2.4 Dec -6.7 Nov 4.6 Oct 7.0 Sep -2.4 Aug -1.6 Jul 5.5 Jun -1.6 May -0.8 Apr -11.3 Mar 10.1 Feb 10.0 Jan 2013 8.3 Dec 5.3 Nov 7.6 Oct 7.4 Sep 7.0 Aug 10.9 Jul -0.7 Jun -0.3 May 16.8 Apr 14.1 Mar -15.2 Feb 28.8 Jan |
Euro Area | -12.2 12-M Aug 2020 | -12.4 Jan-Aug 2020 | -13.5 12-M Jul 2020 | -13.1 Jan- Aug 2020 |
Germany | 2.4 Aug CSA | -10.2 Aug | 5.8 Aug CSA | -7.9 Aug |
France Sep | 6.2 | -10.0 | 0.6 | -7.6 |
Italy Aug | 3.3 | -7.0 | 5.1 | -12.6 |
UK | 1.5 Aug | -4.3 | 2.2 Aug | -12.5 |
Net Trade % Points GDP Growth | Points | |||
USA | IIIQ2020 -3.09 IIQ2020 0.62 IQ2020 1.13 IVQ2019 1.52 IIIQ2019 0.04 IIQ2019 -0.79 IQ2019 0.55 IVQ 2018 -0.27 IIIQ2018 -1.83 IIQ2018 0.25 IQ2018 0.29 IVQ2017 -0.49 IIIQ2017 0.08 IIQ2017 -0.39 IQ2017 0.36 IVQ2016 -1.13 IIIQ2016 0.08 IIQ2016 0.22 IQ2016 -0.05 IVQ2015 -0.22 IIIQ2015 -0.97 IIQ2015 -0.25 IQ2015 -1.38 IVQ2014 -1.05 IIIQ2014 0.10 IIQ2014 -0.46 IQ2014 -1.11 IVQ2013 1.23 IIIQ2013 -0.14 IIQ2013 -0.33 IQ2013 0.40 IVQ2012 +0.57 IIIQ2012 -0.08 IIQ2012 0.27 IQ2012 0.00 | |||
Japan | 0.8 IQ2012 -2.0 IIQ2012 -1.9 IIIQ2012 -0.4 IVQ2012 1.5 IQ2013 -0.1 IIQ2013 -1.3 IIIQ2013 -2.2 IVQ2013 -0.7 IQ2014 4.0 IIQ2014 -0.3 IIIQ2014 1.5 IVQ2014 0.2 IQ2015 -0.5 IIQ2015 -0.6 IIIQ2015 0.1 IVQ2015 1.4 IQ2016 0.5 IIQ2016 1.2 IIIQ2016 1.5 IVQ2016 0.4 IQ2017 -0.9 IIQ2017 2.1 IIIQ2017 -0.3 IVQ2017 0.3 IQ2018 0.0 IIQ2018 -0.7 IIIQ2018 -2.0 IVQ2018 2.1 IQ2019 -1.2 IIQ2019 -1.0 IIIQ2019 2.1 IVQ2019 -0.9 IQ2020 -10.9 IIQ2020 | |||
Germany | IQ2012 0.8 IIQ2012 0.3 IIIQ2012 0.4 IVQ2012 -0.5 IQ2013 -0.3 IIQ2013 -0.3 IIIQ2013 0.0 IVQ2013 0.9 IQ2014 -0.1 IIQ2014 -0.3 IIIQ2014 0.7 IVQ2014 0.1 IQ2015 -0.4 IIQ2015 0.6 IIIQ2015 -0.4 IVQ2015 -0.6 IQ2016 -0.4 IIQ2016 0.7 IIIQ2016 -0.2 IVQ2016 -0.7 IQ2017 0.7 IIQ2017 -0.2 IIIQ2017 0.5 IVQ2017 0.1 IQ2018 0.1 IIQ2018 -0.2 IIIQ2018 -1.0 IVQ2018 -0.2 IQ2019 0.3 IIQ2019 -0.6 IIIQ2019 0.6 IVQ2019 -0.3 IQ2020 -0.8 IIQ2020 -2.8 | |||
France | 0.1 IIIQ2012 0.1 IVQ2012 -0.1 IQ2013 0.3 IIQ2013 -1.7 IIIQ2013 0.1 IVQ2013 -0.1 IQ2014 -0.2 IIQ2014 -0.2 IIIQ2014 0.2 IVQ2014 -0.2 IQ2015 0.4 IIQ2015 -0.6 IIIQ2015 -0.7 IVQ2015 -0.1 IQ2016 0.3 IIQ2016 -0.6 IIIQ2016 0.1 IVQ2016 -0.6 IQ2017 0.9 IIQ2017 -0.3 IIIQ2017 0.6 IVQ2017 0.0 IQ2018 0.0 IIQ2018 0.3 IIIQ2018 0.2 IVQ2018 -0.3 IQ2019 -0.1 IIQ2019 -0.3 IIIQ2019 0.0 IVQ2019 -0.1 IQ2020 -2.5 IIQ2020 | |||
UK | 0.7 IIQ2013 -1.7 IIIQ2013 0.1 IVQ2013 0.8 IQ2014 0.3 IIQ2014 -0.7 IIIQ2014 0.0 IVQ2014 -0.4 IQ2015 1.1 IIQ2015 -0.4 IIIQ2015 -0.2 IVQ2015 -0.1 IQ2016 0.1 IIQ2016 -1.8 IIIQ2016 1.7 IVQ2016 0.33 IQ2017 0.01 IIQ2017 | |||
0.11 | ||||
IIIQ2017 -0.28 IVQ2017 0.42 IQ2018 -0.48 IIQ2018 0.45 IIIQ2018 -1.29 IVQ2018 -2.12 IQ2019 2.81 IIQ2019 1.13 IIIQ2019 0.41 IVQ2019 -0.48 IQ2020 3.54 IIQ2020 |
Sources: Country Statistical Agencies
https://www.bls.gov/bls/other.htm https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/related-sites.html
Motor vehicle sales and production in the US have been in long-term structural change. Table VA-1A provides the data on new motor vehicle sales and domestic car production in the US from 1990 to 2010. New motor vehicle sales grew from 14,137 thousand in 1990 to the peak of 17,806 thousand in 2000 or 29.5 percent. In that same period, domestic car production fell from 6,231 thousand in 1990 to 5,542 thousand in 2000 or -11.1 percent. New motor vehicle sales fell from 17,445 thousand in 2005 to 11,772 in 2010 or 32.5 percent while domestic car production fell from 4,321 thousand in 2005 to 2,840 thousand in 2010 or 34.3 percent. In IIQ2018, light vehicle sales accumulated to 4,500,220, which is higher by 1.8 percent relative to 4,419,349 a year earlier in IIQ2017 (http://www.motorintelligence.com/m_frameset.html). Total not seasonally adjusted light vehicle sales reached 1345.4 thousands in Oct 2020, increasing 0.9 percent from 1334.0 thousands in Oct 2019 (https://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gap_hist.xlsx https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product#collapse86). The seasonally adjusted annual rate of light vehicle sales in the US reached 16.2 million in Oct 2020, lower than 16.3 million in Sep 2020 and lower than 16.8 million in Oct 2019 (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product#collapse86).
Table VA-1A, US, New Motor Vehicle Sales and Car Production, Thousand Units 7
New Motor Vehicle Sales | New Car Sales and Leases | New Truck Sales and Leases | Domestic Car Production | |
1990 | 14,137 | 9,300 | 4,837 | 6,231 |
1991 | 12,725 | 8,589 | 4,136 | 5,454 |
1992 | 13,093 | 8,215 | 4,878 | 5,979 |
1993 | 14,172 | 8,518 | 5,654 | 5,979 |
1994 | 15,397 | 8,990 | 6,407 | 6,614 |
1995 | 15,106 | 8,536 | 6,470 | 6,340 |
1996 | 15,449 | 8,527 | 6,922 | 6,081 |
1997 | 15,490 | 8,273 | 7,218 | 5,934 |
1998 | 15,958 | 8,142 | 7,816 | 5,554 |
1999 | 17,401 | 8,697 | 8,704 | 5,638 |
2000 | 17,806 | 8,852 | 8,954 | 5,542 |
2001 | 17,468 | 8,422 | 9,046 | 4,878 |
2002 | 17,144 | 8,109 | 9,036 | 5,019 |
2003 | 16,968 | 7,611 | 9,357 | 4,510 |
2004 | 17,298 | 7,545 | 9,753 | 4,230 |
2005 | 17,445 | 7,720 | 9,725 | 4,321 |
2006 | 17,049 | 7,821 | 9,228 | 4,367 |
2007 | 16,460 | 7,618 | 8,683 | 3,924 |
2008 | 13,494 | 6,814 | 6.680 | 3,777 |
2009 | 10,601 | 5,456 | 5,154 | 2,247 |
2010 | 11,772 | 5,729 | 6,044 | 2,840 |
Source: US Census Bureau
https://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gap_hist.xlsx
Table VA-1B provides the seasonally adjusted annual rate of total vehicle sales in the United States. The rate decreased from 17.740 in Jun 2019 and 17.214 in Feb 2020 to 9.059 in Apr 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The rate recovered to 12.407 in May 2020 and 13.352 in Jun 2020, 14.950 in Jul 2020, 15.555 Aug 2020 and 16.726 in Sep 2020 in gradual return to economic activity. The rate for Oct 2020 decreased to 16.676 (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product#collapse86).
Table VA-1B, United States, Annual Rate, Total Vehicle Sales, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
January | 2019 | 17.305 |
February | 2019 | 17.098 |
March | 2019 | 17.830 |
April | 2019 | 17.155 |
May | 2019 | 17.862 |
June | 2019 | 17.740 |
July | 2019 | 17.527 |
August | 2019 | 17.600 |
September | 2019 | 17.643 |
October | 2019 | 17.272 |
November | 2019 | 17.437 |
December | 2019 | 17.289 |
January | 2020 | 17.311 |
February | 2020 | 17.214 |
March | 2020 | 11.748 |
April | 2020 | 9.060 |
May | 2020 | 12.408 |
June | 2020 | 13.350 |
July | 2020 | 15.002 |
August | 2020 | 15.621 |
September | 2020 | 16.756 |
Source: Economic Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA
Data for Sep 2020 and updates: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product#collapse86
Chart I-4 of the Economic Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, provides the complete data set of SAAR of total car sales in the US. The SAAR of 9.060 in Apr 2020 is lower than the lowest rate in the global recession at 9.223 in Feb 2009.
Chart I-4, SA Annual Rate of Total Car Sales in the United States, Jan 1976 to Sep 2020
Source: Economic Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA
Chart I-4, SA Annual Rate of Total Car Sales in the United States, Jan 1976 to Sep 2020
Source: Economic Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA
Chart I-5 of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve provides output of motor vehicles and parts in the United States from 1972 to 2020. Output virtually stagnated since the late 1990s with recent increase followed by the highest decrease in the data history in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and sharp recovery after easing of lockdown.
Chart 1-5, US, Motor Vehicles and Parts Output, 1972-2020
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm
Table VB-1 provides the employment report of Japan in Sep 2020. The rate of unemployment not seasonally adjusted reached 3.0 percent, increasing 0.7 percentage points from a year earlier. Population decreased 0.1 percent from a year earlier. The labor force decreased 0.4 percent from a year earlier and the labor participation rate stood at 62.1, decreasing 0.2 percentage points from year earlier. The employment rate moved to 60.3 percent, decreasing 0.6 percentage points relative to a year earlier.
Table VB-1, Japan, Employment Report Sep 2020
Sep 2020 Unemployed | 2.10 million |
Change since last year | 420 thousand; ∆% 25.0 |
Unemployment rate | SA 3.0%, 0.0 from earlier month. NSA 3.0%, 0.6 from earlier year |
Population ≥ 15 years | 110.85 million |
Change since last year | ∆% -0.1 |
Labor Force | 68.99 million |
Change since last year | ∆% -0.5 |
Employed | 66.89 million |
Change since last year | ∆% -1.2 |
Labor force participation rate | 62.2 |
Change since last year | -0.3 |
Employment rate | 60.3% |
Change since last year | -0.7 |
Source: Japan, Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications
http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/results/month/index.html
Table VB-2 provides the rate of unemployment of Japan seasonally adjusted that decreased to 3.4 percent in Dec 2014 from 4.4 percent in Jul 2012. The rate of unemployment SA increased 0.6 percentage points from 2.4 percent in Sep 2019 to 3.0 percent in Sep 2020.
Table VB-2, Japan, Unemployment Rate, SA
Unemployment Rate SA | |
Sep 2020 | 3.0 |
Aug | 3.0 |
Jul | 2.9 |
Jun | 2.8 |
May | 2.9 |
Apr | 2.6 |
Mar | 2.5 |
Feb | 2.4 |
Jan | 2.4 |
Dec 2019 | 2.2 |
Nov | 2.2 |
Oct | 2.4 |
Sep | 2.4 |
Aug | 2.3 |
Jul | 2.3 |
Jun | 2.3 |
May | 2.4 |
Apr | 2.4 |
Mar | 2.5 |
Feb | 2.4 |
Jan | 2.5 |
Dec 2018 | 2.4 |
Nov | 2.5 |
Oct | 2.4 |
Sep | 2.3 |
Aug | 2.5 |
Jul | 2.5 |
Jun | 2.5 |
May | 2.3 |
Apr | 2.5 |
Mar | 2.5 |
Feb | 2.5 |
Jan | 2.4 |
Dec 2017 | 2.7 |
Nov | 2.7 |
Oct | 2.7 |
Sep | 2.8 |
Aug | 2.7 |
Jul | 2.8 |
Jun | 2.8 |
May | 3.1 |
Apr | 2.8 |
Mar | 2.8 |
Feb | 2.9 |
Jan | 3.0 |
Dec 2016 | 3.1 |
Nov | 3.1 |
Oct | 3.0 |
Sep | 3.0 |
Aug | 3.1 |
Jul | 3.0 |
Jun | 3.1 |
May | 3.1 |
Apr | 3.2 |
Mar | 3.2 |
Feb | 3.3 |
Jan | 3.2 |
Dec 2015 | 3.3 |
Nov | 3.3 |
Oct | 3.2 |
Sep | 3.4 |
Aug | 3.4 |
Jul | 3.4 |
Jun | 3.4 |
May | 3.3 |
Apr | 3.4 |
Mar | 3.4 |
Feb | 3.5 |
Jan | 3.5 |
Dec 2014 | 3.4 |
Nov | 3.5 |
Oct | 3.6 |
Sep | 3.5 |
Aug | 3.5 |
Jul | 3.7 |
Jun | 3.7 |
May | 3.6 |
Apr | 3.6 |
Mar | 3.6 |
Feb | 3.6 |
Jan | 3.7 |
Dec 2013 | 3.7 |
Nov | 3.9 |
Oct | 4.0 |
Sep | 4.0 |
Aug | 4.1 |
Jul | 3.8 |
Jun | 3.9 |
May | 4.1 |
Apr | 4.1 |
Mar | 4.1 |
Feb | 4.3 |
Jan | 4.2 |
Dec 2012 | 4.3 |
Nov | 4.1 |
Oct | 4.1 |
Sep | 4.3 |
Aug | 4.2 |
Jul | 4.4 |
Jun | 4.3 |
May | 4.4 |
Source: Source: Japan, Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications
http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/results/month/index.htm
Chart VB-1 of Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications provides the unemployment rate of Japan from 2014 to 2019. There is clear trend of decline with multiple oscillations and increase in Jun-Jul 2014. The rate increased in Sep 2014 and fell in Oct 2014, stabilizing in Nov 2014 and declining in Dec 2014. The rate decreased in Feb-Apr 2015, stabilizing in May 2015. The rate increased in Jun 2015 and fell in Jul 2015, increasing in Aug 2015 and stabilizing in Sep 2015. The rate fell in Oct 2015, increasing in Nov 2015, remaining unchanged in Dec 2015 and decreasing in Jan 2016. The rate increased in Feb 2016 and decreased in Mar 2016, stabilizing in Apr-May 2016. The rate decreased in Jun-Jul 2016, increasing in Aug 2016. The rate decreased in Sep 2016, stabilizing in Oct 2016. The rate increased in Nov 2016 and stabilized in Dec 2016, decreasing in Jan-Feb 2017. The rate stabilized in Apr 2017, increasing in May 2017 and decreasing in Jun 2017. The rate stabilized in Jul-Oct 2017, decreasing in Nov 2017. The rate increased in Dec 2017, decreasing in Jan 2018. The rate increased in Feb 2018 and stabilized in Mar-Apr 2018, decreasing in May 2018. The rate increased in Jun-Jul 2018, decreasing in Aug-Sep 2018. The rate increased in Oct-Nov 2018, decreasing in Dec 2018. The rate increased in Jan 2019, decreasing in Feb 2019. The rate increased in Mar 2019, decreasing in Apr 2019. The rate stabilized in May 2019, decreasing in Jun 2019. The rate decreased in Jul 2019, stabilizing in Aug 2019. The rate increased in Sep 2019, stabilizing in Oct 2019. The rate decreased in Nov 2019 and stabilized in Dec 2019. The rate increased in Jan 2020 and stabilized in Feb 2020. The rate increased in Mar-May 2020, decreasing in Jun 2020. The rate increased in Jul-Aug 2020, stabilizing in Sep 2020.
Chart VB-1, Japan, Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted
Source: Japan, Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications
http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/results/month/index.htm
During the “lost decade” of the 1990s from 1991 to 2002 (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 82-3), Japan’s GDP grew at the average yearly rate of 1.0 percent, the CPI at 0.1 percent and the implicit deflator at minus 0.8 percent. Japan’s growth rate from the mid-1970s to 1992 was 4 percent (Ito 2004). Table VB-3 provides Japan’s rates of unemployment, participation in labor force and employment for selected years from 1953 to 1985 and yearly from 1990 to 2016. The rate of unemployment jumped from 2.1 percent in 1991 to 5.4 percent in 2002, which was a year of global economic weakness. The participation rate dropped from 64.0 percent in 1992 to 61.2 percent in 2002 and the employment rate fell from 62.6 percent in 1992 to 57.9 percent in 2002. The rate of unemployment rose from 3.9 percent in 2007 to 5.1 percent in 2010, falling to 4.6 percent in 2011, 4.3 percent in 2012 and 3.6 percent in 2014. The rate of unemployment fell to 3.4 percent in 2015 and 3.1 percent in 2016. The unemployment rate fell to 2.8 percent in 2017, decreasing to 2.4 percent in 2018. The unemployment rate stabilized at 2.4 percent in 2019. The participation rate fell from 60.4 percent in 2007 to 59.6 percent in 2010, falling to 59.3 percent in 2011 and 59.1 in 2012 and increasing to 59.4 percent in 2014. The participation rate increased to 59.6 in 2015 and 60.0 in 2016, increasing to 60.5 in 2017. The participation rate increased to 61.5 in 2018. The participation rate increased to 62.1 in 2019. The employment rate fell from 58.1 in percent in 2007 to 56.6 percent in 2010 and 56.5 percent in 2011 and 2012, increasing to 57.3 percent in 2014. The employment rate increased to 57.6 in 2015 and 58.1 in 2016. The employment rate increased to 58.8 in 2017. The global recession adversely affected labor markets in advanced economies. The employment rate increased to 60.0 in 2018, increasing to 60.6 in 2019.
Table VB-3, Japan, Rates of Unemployment, Participation in Labor Force and Employment, %
Participation | Employment Rate | Unemployment Rate | |
1953 | 70.0 | 68.6 | 1.9 |
1960 | 69.2 | 68.0 | 1.7 |
1965 | 65.7 | 64.9 | 1.2 |
1970 | 65.4 | 64.6 | 1.1 |
1975 | 63.0 | 61.9 | 1.9 |
1980 | 63.3 | 62.0 | 2.0 |
1985 | 63.0 | 61.4 | 2.6 |
1990 | 63.3 | 61.9 | 2.1 |
1991 | 63.8 | 62.4 | 2.1 |
1992 | 64.0 | 62.6 | 2.2 |
1993 | 63.8 | 62.2 | 2.5 |
1994 | 63.6 | 61.8 | 2.9 |
1995 | 63.4 | 61.4 | 3.2 |
1996 | 63.5 | 61.4 | 3.4 |
1997 | 63.7 | 61.5 | 3.4 |
1998 | 63.3 | 60.7 | 4.1 |
1999 | 62.9 | 59.9 | 4.7 |
2000 | 62.4 | 59.5 | 4.7 |
2001 | 62.0 | 58.9 | 5.0 |
2002 | 61.2 | 57.9 | 5.4 |
2003 | 60.8 | 57.6 | 5.3 |
2004 | 60.4 | 57.6 | 4.7 |
2005 | 60.4 | 57.7 | 4.4 |
2006 | 60.4 | 57.9 | 4.1 |
2007 | 60.4 | 58.1 | 3.9 |
2008 | 60.2 | 57.8 | 4.0 |
2009 | 59.9 | 56.9 | 5.1 |
2010 | 59.6 | 56.6 | 5.1 |
2011 | 59.3 | 56.5 | 4.6 |
2012 | 59.1 | 56.5 | 4.3 |
2013 | 59.3 | 56.9 | 4.0 |
2014 | 59.4 | 57.3 | 3.6 |
2015 | 59.6 | 57.6 | 3.4 |
2016 | 60.0 | 58.1 | 3.1 |
2017 | 60.5 | 58.8 | 2.8 |
2018 | 61.5 | 60.0 | 2.4 |
2019 | 62.1 | 60.6 | 2.4 |
Source: Japan, Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications
http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/results/month/index.htm
EUROSTAT estimates the rate of unemployment in the euro area at 8.3 percent in Sep
2020, as shown in Table VD-1. The number of unemployed in Sep 2020 was 13.612 million, which was higher by 1.376 million than 12.236 million in Sep 2019. The rate of unemployment increased from 7.5 percent in Sep 2019 to 8.3 percent in Sep 2020.
Table VD-1, Euro Area, Unemployment Rate and Number of Unemployed, % and Millions, SA
Unemployment Rate % | Number Unemployed | |
Sep 2020 | 8.3 | 13.612 |
Aug | 8.3 | 13.537 |
Jul | 8.1 | 13.233 |
Jun | 7.9 | 12.719 |
May | 7.6 | 12.143 |
Apr | 7.4 | 11.880 |
Mar | 7.2 | 11.798 |
Feb | 7.3 | 11.942 |
Jan | 7.4 | 12.220 |
Dec 2019 | 7.4 | 12.136 |
Nov | 7.4 | 12.127 |
Oct | 7.4 | 12.135 |
Sep | 7.5 | 12.236 |
Aug | 7.5 | 12.235 |
Jul | 7.5 | 12.292 |
Jun | 7.5 | 12.287 |
May | 7.6 | 12.431 |
Apr | 7.7 | 12.552 |
Mar | 7.7 | 12.632 |
Feb | 7.8 | 12.725 |
Jan | 7.8 | 12.775 |
Dec 2018 | 7.8 | 12.807 |
Nov | 7.9 | 12.928 |
Oct | 8.0 | 13.086 |
Sep | 8.0 | 13.070 |
Aug | 8.0 | 13.115 |
Jul | 8.1 | 13.208 |
Jun | 8.2 | 13.389 |
May | 8.2 | 13.457 |
Apr | 8.4 | 13.680 |
Mar | 8.5 | 13.797 |
Feb | 8.5 | 13.891 |
Jan | 8.6 | 14.060 |
Dec 2017 | 8.7 | 14.113 |
Nov | 8.7 | 14.199 |
Oct | 8.8 | 14.310 |
Sep | 8.9 | 14.485 |
Aug | 9.0 | 14.637 |
Jul | 9.0 | 14.739 |
Jun | 9.1 | 14.721 |
May | 9.2 | 14.922 |
Apr | 9.2 | 14.986 |
Mar | 9.4 | 15.209 |
Feb | 9.4 | 15.297 |
Jan | 9.6 | 15.500 |
Dec 2016 | 9.6 | 15.648 |
Nov | 9.8 | 15.866 |
Oct | 9.8 | 15.865 |
Sep | 9.9 | 16.011 |
Aug | 9.9 | 16.019 |
Jul | 10.0 | 16.165 |
Jun | 10.1 | 16.379 |
May | 10.1 | 16.443 |
Apr | 10.2 | 16.557 |
Mar | 10.2 | 16.582 |
Feb | 10.4 | 16.746 |
Jan | 10.4 | 16.743 |
Dec 2015 | 10.5 | 16.879 |
Nov | 10.5 | 16.898 |
Oct | 10.6 | 17.081 |
Sep | 10.6 | 17.079 |
Aug | 10.7 | 17.153 |
Jul | 10.8 | 17.312 |
Jun | 11.0 | 17.656 |
May | 11.0 | 17.744 |
Apr | 11.1 | 17.828 |
Mar | 11.2 | 17.975 |
Feb | 11.2 | 18.010 |
Jan | 11.3 | 18.092 |
Dec 2014 | 11.4 | 18.255 |
Nov | 11.5 | 18.540 |
Oct | 11.5 | 18.510 |
Sep | 11.5 | 18.506 |
Aug | 11.5 | 18.394 |
Jul | 11.6 | 18.584 |
Jun | 11.5 | 18.492 |
May | 11.7 | 18.708 |
Apr | 11.7 | 18.753 |
Mar | 11.8 | 18.913 |
Feb | 11.9 | 19.019 |
Jan | 11.9 | 19.078 |
Dec 2013 | 11.9 | 19.020 |
Nov | 11.9 | 19.093 |
Oct | 12.0 | 19.160 |
Sep | 12.0 | 19.295 |
Aug | 12.0 | 19.275 |
Jul | 12.0 | 19.315 |
Jun | 12.1 | 19.334 |
May | 12.1 | 19.358 |
Apr | 12.1 | 19.297 |
Mar | 12.1 | 19.297 |
Feb | 12.0 | 19.300 |
Jan | 12.0 | 19.264 |
Dec 2012 | 11.9 | 19.026 |
Nov | 11.8 | 18.937 |
Oct | 11.7 | 18.828 |
Sep | 11.6 | 18.584 |
Aug | 11.5 | 18.445 |
Jul | 11.5 | 18.380 |
Jun | 11.4 | 18.249 |
May | 11.3 | 18.081 |
Apr | 11.2 | 17.918 |
Mar | 11.1 | 17.707 |
Feb | 10.9 | 17.405 |
Jan | 10.8 | 17.158 |
Dec 2011 | 10.7 | 17.091 |
Nov | 10.6 | 16.875 |
Oct | 10.5 | 16.645 |
Sep | 10.4 | 16.490 |
Aug | 10.2 | 16.275 |
Jul | 10.2 | 16.129 |
Jun | 10.0 | 15.957 |
May | 10.0 | 15.877 |
Apr | 10.0 | 15.785 |
Mar | 10.0 | 15.877 |
Feb | 10.0 | 15.882 |
Jan | 10.1 | 15.960 |
Dec 2010 | 10.1 | 16.034 |
Source: EUROSTAT
Table VD-2 shows the disparity in rates of unemployment in the euro area with 8.3 percent for the region as a whole and 13.612 million unemployed but 4.5 percent for Germany and 1.996 million unemployed. At the other extreme is Spain with rate of unemployment of 16.5 percent and 3.814 million unemployed. The rate of unemployment of the European Union in Sep 2020 is 7.5 percent with 15.990 million unemployed.
Table VD-2, Unemployed and Unemployment Rate in Countries and Regions, Millions and %
Sep 2020 | Unemployment Rate % | Unemployed Millions |
Euro Zone | 8.3 | 13.612 |
Germany | 4.5 | 1.996 |
France | 7.9 | 2.322 |
Netherlands | 4.4 | 0.413 |
Finland | 8.3 | 0.228 |
Portugal | 7.7 | 0.399 |
Ireland | 5.4 | 0.126 |
Italy | 9.6 | 2.439 |
Greece | 16.8* | 0.774* |
Spain | 16.5 | 3.814 |
Belgium | 5.2 | 0.261 |
European Union | 7.5 | 15.990 |
*Jul 2020
Source: EUROSTAT
Chart VD-1 of EUROSTAT illustrates the wide difference in rates of unemployment in countries and regions.
Chart VD-1, Unemployment Rate in Various Countries and Regions
Source: EUROSTAT
Table VE-2A provides the unemployment rate in Germany, seasonally adjusted (SA) but not calendar adjusted (NCA), available in the data bank of EUROSTAT. There is significant decrease from 10.7 percent in Dec 2005 to 4.5 percent in Sep 2020.
Table VE-2A, Germany, Unemployment Rate in Percent of Labor Force, SA NCA, Eurostat Data Bank
Sep 2020 | 4.5 |
Aug | 4.5 |
Jul | 4.5 |
Jun | 4.4 |
May | 4.2 |
Apr | 4.0 |
Mar | 3.8 |
Feb | 3.6 |
Jan | 3.4 |
Dec 2019 | 3.3 |
Nov | 3.2 |
Oct | 3.1 |
Sep | 3.1 |
Aug | 3.0 |
Jul | 3.0 |
Jun | 3.0 |
May | 3.1 |
Apr | 3.1 |
Mar | 3.2 |
Feb | 3.3 |
Jan | 3.3 |
Dec 2018 | 3.3 |
Nov | 3.3 |
Oct | 3.3 |
Sep | 3.3 |
Aug | 3.4 |
Jul | 3.4 |
Jun | 3.4 |
May | 3.4 |
Apr | 3.4 |
Mar | 3.5 |
Feb | 3.5 |
Jan | 3.6 |
Dec 2017 | 3.6 |
Nov | 3.6 |
Oct | 3.7 |
Sep | 3.7 |
Aug | 3.7 |
Jul | 3.7 |
Jun | 3.8 |
May | 3.8 |
Apr | 3.8 |
Mar | 3.9 |
Feb | 3.9 |
Jan | 3.9 |
Dec 2016 | 3.9 |
Nov | 3.9 |
Oct | 4.0 |
Sep | 4.0 |
Aug | 4.1 |
Jul | 4.2 |
Jun | 4.2 |
May | 4.2 |
Apr | 4.3 |
Mar | 4.3 |
Feb | 4.4 |
Jan | 4.4 |
Dec 2015 | 4.5 |
Nov | 4.5 |
Oct | 4.5 |
Sep | 4.5 |
Aug | 4.6 |
Jul | 4.6 |
Jun | 4.7 |
May | 4.7 |
Apr | 4.7 |
Mar | 4.7 |
Feb | 4.8 |
Jan | 4.8 |
Dec 2014 | 4.9 |
Nov | 4.9 |
Oct | 5.0 |
Sep | 5.0 |
Aug | 5.0 |
Jul | 5.0 |
Jun | 5.0 |
May | 5.0 |
Apr | 5.0 |
Mar | 5.1 |
Feb | 5.1 |
Jan | 5.1 |
Dec 2013 | 5.1 |
Nov | 5.1 |
Oct | 5.1 |
Sep | 5.2 |
Aug | 5.2 |
Jul | 5.2 |
Jun | 5.2 |
May | 5.3 |
Apr | 5.3 |
Mar | 5.3 |
Feb | 5.4 |
Jan | 5.4 |
Dec 2012 | 5.3 |
Nov | 5.3 |
Oct | 5.3 |
Sep | 5.3 |
Aug | 5.3 |
Jul | 5.4 |
Jun | 5.4 |
May | 5.4 |
Apr | 5.4 |
Mar | 5.4 |
Feb | 5.4 |
Jan | 5.5 |
Dec 2011 | 5.5 |
Nov | 5.6 |
Oct | 5.6 |
Sep | 5.7 |
Aug | 5.7 |
Jul | 5.8 |
Jun | 5.8 |
May | 5.9 |
Apr | 6.0 |
Mar | 6.1 |
Feb | 6.2 |
Jan | 6.4 |
Dec 2010 | 6.5 |
Dec 2009 | 7.5 |
Dec 2008 | 7.2 |
Dec 2007 | 8.1 |
Dec 2006 | 9.4 |
Dec 2005 | 10.7 |
Source: Source: EUROSTAT
Data on Italy’s labor market since 2004 are in Table VG-1A. The unemployment rate has risen from 6.2 percent in Dec 2006 to 9.6 percent in Sep 2020. The rate of youth unemployment for ages 15 to 24 years increased from 20.2 percent in Dec 2006 to 29.7 percent in Sep 2020. As in other advanced economies, unemployment has reached high levels.
Table VG-1, Italy, Labor Report
Participation Rate % | Employment Ratio % | Unemployment Rate % | Unemployment | |
Sep 2020 | 64.5 | 58.2 | 9.6 | 29.7 |
Aug | 64.5 | 58.1 | 9.7 | 31.4 |
Jul | 64.4 | 57.9 | 9.8 | 31.2 |
Jun | 63.8 | 57.6 | 9.4 | 30.0 |
May | 63.3 | 57.7 | 8.7 | 28.4 |
Apr | 62.5 | 57.9 | 7.3 | 26.2 |
Mar | 64.2 | 58.6 | 8.5 | 27.7 |
Feb | 65.2 | 59.0 | 9.3 | 28.6 |
Jan | 65.3 | 58.9 | 9.5 | 28.8 |
Dec 2019 | 65.3 | 58.9 | 9.6 | 28.2 |
Nov | 65.5 | 59.2 | 9.5 | 28.1 |
Oct | 65.3 | 59.0 | 9.5 | 27.6 |
Sep | 65.5 | 59.1 | 9.7 | 28.7 |
Aug | 65.4 | 59.1 | 9.5 | 26.7 |
Jul | 65.6 | 59.1 | 9.7 | 28.0 |
Jun | 65.8 | 59.3 | 9.7 | 27.5 |
May | 65.9 | 59.1 | 10.1 | 29.8 |
Apr | 66.0 | 59.0 | 10.3 | 31.0 |
Mar | 66.0 | 59.0 | 10.4 | 30.0 |
Feb | 65.7 | 58.7 | 10.4 | 31.5 |
Jan | 65.6 | 58.6 | 10.4 | 31.7 |
Dec 2018 | 65.6 | 58.7 | 10.3 | 32.0 |
Nov | 65.6 | 58.5 | 10.5 | 32.1 |
Oct | 65.8 | 58.6 | 10.7 | 32.8 |
Sep | 65.5 | 58.6 | 10.3 | 32.0 |
Aug | 65.4 | 58.6 | 10.2 | 32.1 |
Jul | 65.5 | 58.6 | 10.4 | 31.4 |
Jun | 65.9 | 58.7 | 10.8 | 32.7 |
May | 65.8 | 58.7 | 10.6 | 31.9 |
Apr | 65.9 | 58.5 | 11.0 | 33.0 |
Mar | 65.7 | 58.4 | 10.9 | 32.5 |
Feb | 65.4 | 58.2 | 10.8 | 33.4 |
Jan | 65.5 | 58.2 | 11.0 | 32.6 |
Dec 2017 | 65.3 | 58.0 | 10.9 | 32.3 |
Nov | 65.7 | 58.3 | 11.1 | 33.1 |
Oct | 65.5 | 58.2 | 11.1 | 34.3 |
Sep | 65.5 | 58.0 | 11.2 | 34.9 |
Aug | 65.7 | 58.1 | 11.3 | 34.4 |
Jul | 65.6 | 58.0 | 11.4 | 34.6 |
Jun | 65.2 | 57.8 | 11.1 | 34.6 |
May | 65.3 | 57.8 | 11.4 | 36.7 |
Apr | 65.3 | 57.8 | 11.2 | 35.7 |
Mar | 65.3 | 57.7 | 11.5 | 36.3 |
Feb | 65.5 | 57.8 | 11.4 | 35.3 |
Jan | 65.4 | 57.7 | 11.7 | 37.4 |
Dec 2016 | 65.4 | 57.6 | 11.7 | 38.1 |
Nov | 65.3 | 57.4 | 11.9 | 39.3 |
Oct | 65.2 | 57.4 | 11.7 | 36.9 |
Sep | 65.2 | 57.4 | 11.8 | 36.6 |
Aug | 64.7 | 57.1 | 11.5 | 36.3 |
Jul | 65.1 | 57.4 | 11.6 | 37.9 |
Jun | 65.1 | 57.4 | 11.7 | 36.6 |
May | 64.9 | 57.3 | 11.6 | 37.1 |
Apr | 64.8 | 57.1 | 11.7 | 37.5 |
Mar | 64.5 | 56.9 | 11.5 | 38.0 |
Feb | 64.3 | 56.6 | 11.7 | 38.7 |
Jan | 64.4 | 56.8 | 11.5 | 39.1 |
Dec 2015 | 64.3 | 56.7 | 11.6 | 38.3 |
Nov | 64.1 | 56.7 | 11.4 | 37.3 |
Oct | 64.3 | 56.7 | 11.6 | 39.6 |
Sep | 64.1 | 56.6 | 11.4 | 39.0 |
Aug | 64.1 | 56.6 | 11.5 | 39.3 |
Jul | 63.9 | 56.3 | 11.7 | 38.0 |
Jun | 64.1 | 56.2 | 12.2 | 42.2 |
May | 64.0 | 56.0 | 12.2 | 41.0 |
Apr | 64.0 | 56.1 | 12.2 | 41.6 |
Mar | 64.0 | 55.8 | 12.5 | 42.5 |
Feb | 64.0 | 56.0 | 12.3 | 42.7 |
Jan | 63.9 | 55.9 | 12.3 | 41.5 |
Dec 2014 | 63.9 | 55.9 | 12.3 | 41.0 |
Nov | 64.3 | 55.8 | 13.1 | 43.1 |
Oct | 64.3 | 55.9 | 12.8 | 42.1 |
Sep | 64.2 | 55.9 | 12.7 | 42.0 |
Aug | 63.7 | 55.7 | 12.4 | 42.4 |
Jul | 64.0 | 55.8 | 12.6 | 43.4 |
Jun | 63.7 | 55.8 | 12.1 | 42.2 |
May | 63.9 | 55.7 | 12.6 | 42.8 |
Apr | 63.5 | 55.4 | 12.6 | 43.1 |
Mar | 63.8 | 55.7 | 12.6 | 43.5 |
Feb | 63.7 | 55.4 | 12.8 | 42.9 |
Jan | 63.6 | 55.3 | 12.8 | 43.2 |
Dec 2013 | 63.5 | 55.5 | 12.4 | 42.2 |
Dec 2012 | 63.5 | 56.1 | 11.4 | 38.0 |
Dec 2011 | 62.8 | 56.7 | 9.6 | 31.6 |
Dec 2010 | 61.9 | 56.8 | 8.1 | 28.2 |
Dec 2009 | 62.1 | 56.9 | 8.3 | 26.5 |
Dec 2008 | 62.5 | 58.2 | 6.8 | 22.6 |
Dec 2007 | 62.9 | 58.8 | 6.5 | 21.5 |
Dec 2006 | 62.4 | 58.4 | 6.2 | 20.2 |
Dec 2005 | 62.5 | 57.7 | 7.5 | 23.6 |
Dec 2004 | 62.4 | 57.5 | 7.8 | 23.7 |
Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica
https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/249697
© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020.
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