Financial Risks, Rules, Discretionary Authorities and Slow Productivity Growth, Twenty Seven Million Unemployed or Underemployed, Stagnating Real Wages, United States International Trade, World Cyclical Slow Growth and Global Recession Risk
Carlos M. Pelaez
© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
Executive Summary
I Twenty Seven Million Unemployed or Underemployed
IA1 Summary of the Employment Situation
IA2 Number of People in Job Stress
IA3 Long-term and Cyclical Comparison of Employment
IA4 Job Creation
IB Stagnating Real Wages
II Rules, Discretionary Authorities and Slow Productivity Growth
IIA United States International Trade
III World Financial Turbulence
IIIA Financial Risks
IIIE Appendix Euro Zone Survival Risk
IIIF Appendix on Sovereign Bond Valuation
IV Global Inflation
V World Economic Slowdown
VA United States
VB Japan
VC China
VD Euro Area
VE Germany
VF France
VG Italy
VH United Kingdom
VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets
VII Economic Indicators
VIII Interest Rates
IX Conclusion
References
Appendixes
Appendix I The Great Inflation
IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies
IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact
IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort
IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis
IIIGA Monetary Policy with Deficit Financing of Economic Growth
IIIGB Adjustment during the Debt Crisis of the 1980s
V World Economic Slowdown. Table V-1 is constructed with the database of the IMF (http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28) to show GDP in dollars in 2012 and the growth rate of real GDP of the world and selected regional countries from 2013 to 2016. The data illustrate the concept often repeated of “two-speed recovery” of the world economy from the recession of 2007 to 2009. The IMF has changed its forecast of the world economy to 3.0 percent in 2013 but accelerating to 3.6 percent in 2014, 3.9 percent in 2015 and 3.9 percent in 2016. Slow-speed recovery occurs in the “major advanced economies” of the G7 that account for $34,543 billion of world output of $72,106 billion, or 47.9 percent, but are projected to grow at much lower rates than world output, 2.0 percent on average from 2013 to 2016 in contrast with 3.6 percent for the world as a whole. While the world would grow 15.2 percent in the four years from 2013 to 2016, the G7 as a whole would grow 8.5 percent. The difference in dollars of 2012 is rather high: growing by 15.2 percent would add around $11.0 trillion of output to the world economy, or roughly, two times the output of the economy of Japan of $5,938 billion but growing by 8.5 percent would add $6.1 trillion of output to the world, or about the output of Japan in 2012. The “two speed” concept is in reference to the growth of the 150 countries labeled as emerging and developing economies (EMDE) with joint output in 2012 of $27,080 billion, or 37.6 percent of world output. The EMDEs would grow cumulatively 21.9 percent or at the average yearly rate of 5.1 percent, contributing $5.9 trillion from 2013 to 2016 or the equivalent of somewhat less than the GDP of $8,229 billion of China in 2012. The final four countries in Table V-1 often referred as BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China), are large, rapidly growing emerging economies. Their combined output in 2012 adds to $14,340 billion, or 19.9 percent of world output, which is equivalent to 41.5 percent of the combined output of the major advanced economies of the G7.
Table V-1, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Real GDP Growth
| GDP USD 2012 | Real GDP ∆% | Real GDP ∆% | Real GDP ∆% | Real GDP ∆% | |
| World | 72,106 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| G7 | 34,543 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| Canada | 1,821 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| France | 2,613 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| DE | 3,428 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Italy | 2,014 | -1.8 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Japan | 5,938 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| UK | 2,484 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| US | 16,245 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Euro Area | 12,192 | -0.5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| DE | 3,428 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| France | 2,613 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Italy | 2,014 | -1.8 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| POT | 212 | -1.4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Ireland | 211 | -0.3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Greece | 249 | -3.9 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 3.7 |
| Spain | 1,323 | -1.2 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| EMDE | 27,080 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.4 |
| Brazil | 2,248 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 3.0 |
| Russia | 2,004 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| India | 1,859 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 6.5 |
| China | 8,229 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 7.0 |
Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries); POT: Portugal
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook databank http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28
Continuing high rates of unemployment in advanced economies constitute another characteristic of the database of the WEO (http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28). Table V-2 is constructed with the WEO database to provide rates of unemployment from 2012 to 2016 for major countries and regions. In fact, unemployment rates for 2013 in Table V-2 are high for all countries: unusually high for countries with high rates most of the time and unusually high for countries with low rates most of the time. The rates of unemployment are particularly high in 2013 for the countries with sovereign debt difficulties in Europe: 16.3 percent for Portugal (POT), 13.1 percent for Ireland, 27.3 percent for Greece, 26.4 percent for Spain and 12.2 percent for Italy, which is lower but still high. The G7 rate of unemployment is 7.1 percent. Unemployment rates are not likely to decrease substantially if slow growth persists in advanced economies.
Table V-2, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Unemployment Rate as Percent of Labor Force
| % Labor Force 2012 | % Labor Force 2013 | % Labor Force 2014 | % Labor Force 2015 | % Labor Force 2016 | |
| World | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| G7 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 6.3 |
| Canada | 7.3 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.8 |
| France | 10.2 | 10.8 | 11.0 | 10.7 | 10.3 |
| DE | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 |
| Italy | 10.7 | 12.2 | 12.4 | 11.9 | 11.1 |
| Japan | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| UK | 8.0 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 6.3 |
| US | 8.1 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 6.1 |
| Euro Area | 11.4 | 12.1 | 11.9 | 11.6 | 11.1 |
| DE | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 |
| France | 10.2 | 10.8 | 11.0 | 10.7 | 10.3 |
| Italy | 10.7 | 12.2 | 12.4 | 11.9 | 11.1 |
| POT | 15.7 | 16.3 | 15.7 | 15.1 | 14.5 |
| Ireland | 14.7 | 13.1 | 11.2 | 10.5 | 10.1 |
| Greece | 24.2 | 27.3 | 26.3 | 24.4 | 21.4 |
| Spain | 25.0 | 26.4 | 25.5 | 24.9 | 24.2 |
| EMDE | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Brazil | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 6.0 |
| Russia | 5.5 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.0 |
| India | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| China | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 |
Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries)
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook databank http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28
Table V-3 provides the latest available estimates of GDP for the regions and countries followed in this blog from IQ2012 to IVQ2013 available now for all countries. There are preliminary estimates for all countries for IQ2014. Growth is weak throughout most of the world.
- Japan. The GDP of Japan increased 0.9 percent in IQ2012, 3.8 percent at SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) and 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier but part of the jump could be the low level a year earlier because of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan is experiencing difficulties with the overvalued yen because of worldwide capital flight originating in zero interest rates with risk aversion in an environment of softer growth of world trade. Japan’s GDP fell 0.6 percent in IIQ2012 at the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of minus 2.2 percent, which is much lower than 3.8 percent in IQ2012. Growth of 3.2 percent in IIQ2012 in Japan relative to IIQ2011 has effects of the low level of output because of Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.8 percent in IIIQ2012 at the SAAR of minus 3.0 percent and decreased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 at the SAAR of 0.2 percent and decreased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan grew 1.2 percent in IQ2013 at the SAAR of 4.9 percent and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.9 percent in IIQ2013 at the SAAR of 3.5 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP grew 0.3 percent in IIIQ2013 at the SAAR of 1.3 percent and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Japan’s GDP increased 0.1 percent at the SAAR of 0.3 percent, increasing 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 1.5 percent in IQ2014 at the SAAR of 5.9 percent and increased 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier.
- China. China’s GDP grew 1.4 percent in IQ2012, annualizing to 5.7 percent, and 8.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 2.1 percent in IIQ2012, which annualizes to 8.7 percent and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 2.0 percent in IIIQ2012, which annualizes at 8.2 percent and 7.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, China grew at 1.9 percent, which annualizes at 7.8 percent, and 7.9 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, China grew at 1.5 percent, which annualizes at 6.1 percent and 7.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, China grew at 1.8 percent, which annualizes at 7.4 percent and 7.5 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 2.3 percent in IIIQ2013, which annualizes at 9.5 percent and 7.8 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 1.7 percent in IVQ2013, which annualized to 7.0 percent and 7.7 percent relative to a year earlier. China’s GDP grew 1.4 percent in IQ2014, which annualizes to 5.7 percent, and 7.4 percent relative to a year earlier. There is decennial change in leadership in China (http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/special/18cpcnc/index.htm). Growth rates of GDP of China in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier have been declining from 2011 to 2014.
- Euro Area. GDP fell 0.1 percent in the euro area in IQ2012 and decreased 0.2 in IQ2012 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP contracted 0.3 percent IIQ2012 and fell 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.2 percent and declined 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.5 percent relative to the prior quarter and fell 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, the GDP of the euro area fell 0.2 percent and decreased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2013, euro area GDP increased 0.1 percent and fell 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2013 and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent and 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier.
- Germany. The GDP of Germany increased 0.7 percent in IQ2012 and 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, Germany’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier but 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier when adjusted for calendar (CA) effects. In IIIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP contracted 0.5 percent in IVQ2012 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, Germany’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and fell 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 0.7 percent and 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2013 and 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent and 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.8 percent in IQ2014 and 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier.
- United States. Growth of US GDP in IQ2012 was 0.9 percent, at SAAR of 3.7 percent and higher by 3.3 percent relative to IQ2011. US GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2012, 1.2 percent at SAAR and 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, US GDP grew 0.7 percent, 2.8 percent at SAAR and 3.1 percent relative to IIIQ2011. In IVQ2012, US GDP grew 0.0 percent, 0.1 percent at SAAR and 2.0 percent relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, US GDP grew at 1.1 percent SAAR, 0.3 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.3 percent relative to the same quarter in 2013. In IIQ2013, US GDP grew at 2.5 percent in SAAR, 0.6 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.6 percent relative to IIQ2012. US GDP grew at 4.1 percent in SAAR in IIIQ2013, 1.0 percent relative to the prior quarter and 2.0 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-instability-mediocre-cyclical.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html) with weak hiring (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/rules-discretionary-authorities-and.html). In IVQ2013, US GDP grew 0.7 percent at 2.6 percent SAAR and 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, US GDP decreased 0.2 percent, 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier and -1.0 percent at SAAR.
- United Kingdom. In IQ2012, UK GDP changed 0.0 percent, increasing 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP fell 0.4 percent in IIQ2012 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIIQ2012 and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP fell 0.2 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IIIQ2012 and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2013 and 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2013 and 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2013, UK GDP increased 0.8 percent and 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2013 and 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, UK GDP increased 0.8 percent and 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier.
- Italy. Italy has experienced decline of GDP in nine consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IIIQ2013. Italy’s GDP fell 1.1 percent in IQ2012 and declined 1.7 percent relative to IQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell 0.5 percent in IIQ2012 and declined 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, Italy’s GDP fell 0.4 percent and declined 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy contracted 0.9 percent in IVQ2012 and fell 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, Italy’s GDP contracted 0.6 percent and fell 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.3 percent in IIQ2013 and 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy decreased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2013 and declined 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2013 and decreased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, Italy’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent and fell 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier.
- France. France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2012 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.3 percent in IIQ2012 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, France’s GDP increased 0.3 percent and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP fell 0.3 percent in IVQ2012 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, France GDP changed 0.0 percent and declined 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2013 and 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2013 and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2013 and 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier.
Table V-3, Percentage Changes of GDP Quarter on Prior Quarter and on Same Quarter Year Earlier, ∆%
| IQ2012/IVQ2011 | IQ2012/IQ2011 | |
| United States | QOQ: 0.9 SAAR: 3.7 | 3.3 |
| Japan | QOQ: 0.9 SAAR: 3.8 | 3.2 |
| China | 1.4 | 8.1 |
| Euro Area | -0.1 | -0.2 |
| Germany | 0.7 | 1.8 |
| France | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Italy | -1.1 | -1.7 |
| United Kingdom | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| IIQ2012/IQ2012 | IIQ2012/IIQ2011 | |
| United States | QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.2 | 2.8 |
| Japan | QOQ: -0.6 | 3.2 |
| China | 2.1 | 7.6 |
| Euro Area | -0.3 | -0.5 |
| Germany | -0.1 | 0.6 1.1 CA |
| France | -0.3 | 0.4 |
| Italy | -0.5 | -2.4 |
| United Kingdom | -0.4 | 0.1 |
| IIIQ2012/ IIQ2012 | IIIQ2012/ IIIQ2011 | |
| United States | QOQ: 0.7 | 3.1 |
| Japan | QOQ: –0.8 | -0.2 |
| China | 2.0 | 7.4 |
| Euro Area | -0.2 | -0.7 |
| Germany | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| France | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Italy | -0.4 | -2.6 |
| United Kingdom | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| IVQ2012/IIIQ2012 | IVQ2012/IVQ2011 | |
| United States | QOQ: 0.0 | 2.0 |
| Japan | QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.2 | -0.3 |
| China | 1.9 | 7.9 |
| Euro Area | -0.5 | -1.0 |
| Germany | -0.5 | 0.0 |
| France | -0.3 | 0.0 |
| Italy | -0.9 | -2.8 |
| United Kingdom | -0.2 | 0.2 |
| IQ2013/IVQ2012 | IQ2013/IQ2012 | |
| United States | QOQ: 0.3 | 1.3 |
| Japan | QOQ: 1.2 SAAR: 4.9 | 0.1 |
| China | 1.5 | 7.7 |
| Euro Area | -0.2 | -1.1 |
| Germany | 0.0 | -1.6 |
| France | 0.0 | -0.2 |
| Italy | -0.6 | -2.4 |
| UK | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| IIQ2013/IQ2013 | IIQ2013/IIQ2012 | |
| United States | QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.5 | 1.6 |
| Japan | QOQ: 0.9 SAAR: 3.5 | 1.3 |
| China | 1.8 | 7.5 |
| Euro Area | 0.3 | -0.6 |
| Germany | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| France | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Italy | -0.3 | -2.1 |
| UK | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| IIIQ2013/IIQ2013 | III/Q2013/ IIIQ2012 | |
| USA | QOQ: 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Japan | QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.3 | 2.4 |
| China | 2.3 | 7.8 |
| Euro Area | 0.1 | -0.3 |
| Germany | 0.3 | 1.1 |
| France | -0.1 | 0.3 |
| Italy | -0.1 | -1.9 |
| UK | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| IVQ2013/IIIQ2013 | IVQ2013/IVQ2012 | |
| USA | QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.6 | 2.6 |
| Japan | QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.3 | 2.5 |
| China | 1.7 | 7.7 |
| Euro Area | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Germany | 0.4 | 1.3 |
| France | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Italy | 0.1 | -0.9 |
| UK | 0.7 | 2.7 |
| IQ2014/IVQ2013 | IQ2014/IQ2013 | |
| USA | QOQ -0.2 SAAR -1.0 | 2.0 |
| Japan | QOQ: 1.5 SAAR: 5.9 | 3.0 |
| China | 1.4 | 7.4 |
| Euro Area | 0.2 | 0.9 |
| Germany | 0.8 | 2.5 |
| France | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| Italy | -0.1 | -0.5 |
| UK | 0.8 | 3.1 |
QOQ: Quarter relative to prior quarter; SAAR: seasonally adjusted annual rate
Source: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.census.gov/aboutus/stat_int.html
Table V-4 provides two types of data: growth of exports and imports in the latest available months and in the past 12 months; and contributions of net trade (exports less imports) to growth of real GDP.
- Japan. Japan provides the most worrisome data (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/interest-rate-risks-world-inflation.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/global-financial-risk-world-inflation.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations_8763.html http://cmpass ocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/paring-quantitative-easing-policy-and_4699.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/thirty-one-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/12/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_24.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/11/contraction-of-united-states-real_25.html and for GDP http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html and earlier http://cmpassocreulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/recovery-without-hiring-united-states.html). In Apr 2014, Japan’s exports grew 5.1 percent in 12 months while imports increased 3.4 percent. The second part of Table V-4 shows that net trade deducted 1.3 percentage points from Japan’s growth of GDP in IIQ2012, deducted 2.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2012 and deducted 0.5 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2012. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2012, 1.7 percentage points in IQ2013 and 0.5 percentage points in IIQ2013. In IIIQ2013, net trade deducted 2.0 percentage points from GDP growth in Japan. Net trade ducted 2.2 percentage points from GDP growth in Japan in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 1.1 percentage point from GDP growth of Japan in IQ2014.
- China. In Apr 2014, China exports increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier and imports increased 0.8 percent.
- Germany. Germany’s exports increased 3.0 percent in the month of Apr 2014 and decreased 0.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014. Germany’s imports decreased 0.2 percent in the month of Apr and increased 0.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to growth of GDP in IQ2012, contributed 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2012, contributed 0.3 percentage points in IIIQ2012, deducted 0.5 percentage points in IVQ2012, deducted 0.3 percentage points in IQ2013 and added 0.1 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded deducted 0.5 percentage points from Germany’s GDP growth in IIIQ2013 and added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2014.
- United Kingdom. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from UK value added in IQ2012, deducted 0.8 percentage points in IIQ2012, added 0.9 percentage points in IIIQ2012 and subtracted 0.4 percentage points in IVQ2012. In IQ2013, net trade added 0.5 percentage points to UK’s growth of value added and contributed 0.0 percentage points in IIQ2013. In IIIQ2013, net trade deducted 1.1 percentage points from UK growth. Net trade contributed 1.0 percentage points to UK value added in IVQ2013. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points to UK value added in IQ2014.
- France. France’s exports decreased 0.7 percent in Apr 2014 while imports decreased 2.9 percent. Net traded added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IIIQ2012 and 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IQ2013 and added 0.2 percentage points in IIQ2013, deducting 0.5 percentage points in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 0.3 percentage points to France’s GDP in IVQ2013 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IQ2014.
- United States. US exports decreased 0.2 percent in Apr 2014 and goods exports increased 2.8 percent in Jan-Apr 2014 relative to a year earlier. Net trade deducted 0.03 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2012 and added 0.68 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade deducted 0.28 percentage points from US GDP growth in IQ2013 and deducted 0.07 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded added 0.14 percentage points to US GDP growth in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 0.99 percentage points to US GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 0.95 percentage points from US GDP growth in IQ2014. Industrial production decreased 0.6 percent in Apr 2014 after increasing 0.9 percent in Mar 2014 and increasing 1.1 percent in Feb 2014, with all data seasonally adjusted. The Federal Reserve completed its annual revision of industrial production and capacity utilization on Mar 28, 2014 (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/revisions/Current/DefaultRev.htm). The report of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System states (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm):
“Industrial production decreased 0.6 percent in April 2014 after having risen about 1 percent in both February and March. In April, manufacturing output fell 0.4 percent. The index had increased substantially in February and March following a decrease in January; severe weather had restrained production early in the quarter. The output of utilities dropped 5.3 percent in April, as demand for heating returned toward normal levels. The production at mines increased 1.4 percent following a gain of 2.0 percent in March. At 102.7 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in April was 3.5 percent above its level of a year earlier. The capacity utilization rate for total industry decreased 0.7 percentage point in April to 78.6 percent, a rate that is 1.5 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2013) average.”
In the six months ending in Apr 2014, United States national industrial production accumulated increase of 2.0 percent at the annual equivalent rate of 4.1 percent, which is higher than growth of 3.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014. Excluding growth of 1.1 percent in Feb 2014 (revised from 1.2 percent in the prior estimate), growth in the remaining five months from Nov to Apr 2014 accumulated to 1.0 percent or 2.2 percent annual equivalent. Industrial production fell in two of the past six months. Business equipment accumulated growth of 2.2 percent in the six months from Nov 2013 to Apr 2014 at the annual equivalent rate of 4.4 percent, which is higher than growth of 4.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014. The Fed analyzes capacity utilization of total industry in its report (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm): “The capacity utilization rate for total industry decreased 0.7 percentage point in April to 78.6 percent, a rate that is 1.5 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2013) average.” United States industry apparently decelerated to a lower growth rate with possible acceleration in the past few months.
Manufacturing decreased 0.4 percent in Apr 2014 after increasing 0.7 percent in Mar 2014 and increasing 1.5 percent in Feb 2014 seasonally adjusted, increasing 2.5 percent not seasonally adjusted in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014. Manufacturing grew cumulatively 1.4 percent in the six months ending in Apr 2014 or at the annual equivalent rate of 2.8 percent. Excluding the increase of 1.5 percent in Feb 2014 (revised from 1.4 percent in the prior estimate), manufacturing accumulated growth of -0.1 percent from Nov 2013 to Apr 2014 or at the annual equivalent rate of -0.3 percent. Table I-2 provides a longer perspective of manufacturing in the US. There has been evident deceleration of manufacturing growth in the US from 2010 and the first three months of 2011 into more recent months as shown by 12 months rates of growth. Growth rates appeared to be increasing again closer to 5 percent in Apr-Jun 2012 but deteriorated. The rates of decline of manufacturing in 2009 are quite high with a drop of 18.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2009. Manufacturing recovered from this decline and led the recovery from the recession. Rates of growth appeared to be returning to the levels at 3 percent or higher in the annual rates before the recession but the pace of manufacturing fell steadily in the past six months with some strength at the margin. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System conducted the annual revision of industrial production released on Mar 28, 2014 (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/revisions/Current/DefaultRev.htm):
“The Federal Reserve has revised its index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization. The annual revision for 2014 was more limited than in recent years because the source data required to extend the annual benchmark indexes of production into 2012 were mostly unavailable. Consequently, the IP indexes published with this revision are very little changed from previous estimates. Measured from fourth quarter to fourth quarter, total IP is now reported to have increased about 3 1/3 percent in each year from 2011 to 2013. Relative to the rates of change for total IP published earlier, the new rates are 1/2 percentage point higher in 2012 and little changed in any other year. Total IP still shows a peak-to-trough decline of about 17 percent for the most recent recession, and it still returned to its pre-recession peak in the fourth quarter of 2013.”
Manufacturing output fell 21.9 from the peak in Jun 2007 to the trough in Apr 2009 and increased 19.9 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Dec 2013. Manufacturing grew 22.3 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Apr 2014. Manufacturing output in Apr 2014 is 4.5 percent below the peak in Jun 2007.
Table V-4, Growth of Trade and Contributions of Net Trade to GDP Growth, ∆% and % Points
| Exports | Exports 12 M ∆% | Imports | Imports 12 M ∆% | |
| USA | -0.2 Apr | 2.8 Jan-Apr | 1.2 Apr | 2.8 Jan-Apr |
| Japan | Apr 2014 5.1 Mar 2014 1.8 Feb 2014 9.5 Jan 2014 9.5 Dec 2013 15.3 Nov 2013 18.4 Oct 2013 18.6 Sep 2013 11.5 Aug 2013 14.7 Jul 2013 12.2 Jun 2013 7.4 May 2013 10.1 Apr 2013 3.8 Mar 2013 1.1 Feb 2013 -2.9 Jan 2013 6.4 Dec -5.8 Nov -4.1 Oct -6.5 Sep -10.3 Aug -5.8 Jul -8.1 | Apr 2013 3.4 Mar 2014 18.1 Feb 2014 9.0 Jan 2014 25.0 Dec 2013 24.7 Nov 2013 21.1 Oct 2013 26.1 Sep 2013 16.5 Aug 2013 16.0 Jul 2013 19.6 Jun 2013 11.8 May 2013 10.0 Apr 2013 9.4 Mar 2013 5.5 Feb 2013 7.3 Jan 2013 7.3 Dec 1.9 Nov 0.8 Oct -1.6 Sep 4.1 Aug -5.4 Jul 2.1 | ||
| China | 2014 0.9 Apr -6.6 Mar -18.1 Feb 10.6 Jan 2013 4.3 Dec 12.7 Nov 5.6 Oct -0.3 Sep 7.2 Aug 5.1 Jul -3.1 Jun 1.0 May 14.7 Apr 10.0 Mar 21.8 Feb 25.0 Jan | 2014 0.8 Apr -11.3 Mar 10.1 Feb 10.0 Jan 2013 8.3 Dec 5.3 Nov 7.6 Oct 7.4 Sep 7.0 Aug 10.9 Jul -0.7 Jun -0.3 May 16.8 Apr 14.1 Mar -15.2 Feb 28.8 Jan | ||
| Euro Area | -0.7 12-M Mar | 1.0 Jan-Mar | 2.5 12-M Mar | -0.1 Jan-Mar |
| Germany | 3.0 Apr CSA | -0.2 Apr | 0.1 Apr CSA | 0.6 Apr |
| France Mar | -0.7 | -6.4 | -2.9 | -5.5 |
| Italy Mar | -0.8 | 1.2 | -1.0 | -1.3 |
| UK | -2.9 Apr | -2.9 Feb-Apr 14 /Feb-Apr 13 | 0.6 Apr | -3.7 Feb-Apr 14 13/Feb-Apr 13 |
| Net Trade % Points GDP Growth | % Points | |||
| USA | IQ2014 -0.95 IVQ2013 0.99 IIIQ2013 0.14 IIQ2013 -0.07 IQ2013 -0.28 IVQ2012 +0.68 IIIQ2012 -0.03 IIQ2012 +0.10 IQ2012 +0.44 | |||
| Japan | 0.4 IQ2012 -1.3 IIQ2012 -2.2 IIIQ2012 -0.5 IVQ2012 1.7 IQ2013 0.5 IIQ2013 -2.0 IIIQ2013 -2.2 IVQ2013 -1.1 IQ2014 | |||
| Germany | IQ2012 0.8 IIQ2012 0.4 IIIQ2012 0.3 IVQ2012 -0.5 IQ2013 -0.3 IIQ2013 0.1 IIIQ2013 -0.5 IVQ2013 0.4 IQ2014 0.1 | |||
| France | 0.1 IIIQ2012 0.1 IVQ2012 -0.1 IQ2013 0.2 IIQ2013 -0.5 IIIQ2013 0.3 IVQ2013 -0.2 IQ2014 | |||
| UK | -0.7 IQ2012 -0.8 IIQ2012 +0.9 IIIQ2012 -0.4 IVQ2012 0.5 IQ2013 0.0 IIQ2013 -1.1 IIIQ2013 1.0 IVQ2013 0.0 IQ2014 |
Sources: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/ http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm
The geographical breakdown of exports and imports of Japan with selected regions and countries is provided in Table V-5 for Apr 2014. The share of Asia in Japan’s trade is more than one-half for 53.8 percent of exports and 45.2 percent of imports. Within Asia, exports to China are 18.0 percent of total exports and imports from China 22.6 percent of total imports. While exports to China increased 9.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014, imports from China increased 7.8 percent. The largest export market for Japan in Apr 2014 is the US with share of 18.5 percent of total exports, which is close to that of China, and share of imports from the US of 8.4 percent in total imports. Japan’s exports to the US grew 1.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014 and imports from the US grew 6.9 percent. Western Europe has share of 10.7 percent in Japan’s exports and of 10.3 percent in imports. Rates of growth of exports of Japan in Apr 2014 are 1.9 percent for exports to the US, minus 5.9 percent for exports to Brazil and 17.6 percent for exports to Germany. Comparisons relative to 2011 may have some bias because of the effects of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Deceleration of growth in China and the US and threat of recession in Europe can reduce world trade and economic activity. Growth rates of imports in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014 are positive for all trading partners except for declines from Canada and the Middle East. Imports from Asia increased 7.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014 while imports from China increased 7.8 percent. Data are in millions of yen, which may have effects of recent depreciation of the yen relative to the United States dollar (USD).
Table V-5, Japan, Value and 12-Month Percentage Changes of Exports and Imports by Regions and Countries, ∆% and Millions of Yen
| Apr 2014 | Exports | 12 months ∆% | Imports Millions Yen | 12 months ∆% |
| Total | 6,069,221 | 5.1 | 6,878,077 | 3.4 |
| Asia | 3,263,128 | 3.6 | 3,109,642 | 7.6 |
| China | 1,095,389 | 9.8 | 1,556,390 | 7.8 |
| USA | 1,122,903 | 1.9 | 575,427 | 6.9 |
| Canada | 76,087 | 12.0 | 92,453 | -18.4 |
| Brazil | 44,568 | -5.9 | 73,187 | 5.0 |
| Mexico | 98,272 | 19.7 | 37,125 | 9.5 |
| Western Europe | 649,304 | 14.4 | 710,007 | 10.1 |
| Germany | 169,365 | 17.6 | 189,736 | 7.8 |
| France | 54,689 | -7.3 | 96,321 | 1.0 |
| UK | 91,072 | 10.2 | 66,436 | 30.4 |
| Middle East | 246,455 | 25.6 | 1,249,425 | -6.9 |
| Australia | 132,306 | -10.0 | 426,071 | 7.4 |
Source: Japan, Ministry of Finance http://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/info/index_e.htm
World trade projections of the IMF are in Table V-6. There is increasing growth of the volume of world trade of goods and services from 3.0 percent in 2013 to 5.3 percent in 2015 and 5.7 percent on average from 2016 to 2019. World trade would be slower for advanced economies while emerging and developing economies (EMDE) experience faster growth. World economic slowdown would be more challenging with lower growth of world trade.
Table V-6, IMF, Projections of World Trade, USD Billions, USD/Barrel and Annual ∆%
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | Average ∆% 2016-2019 | |
| World Trade Volume (Goods and Services) | 3.0 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 5.7 |
| Exports Goods & Services | 3.1 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 5.7 |
| Imports Goods & Services | 2.9 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 5.7 |
| World Trade Value of Exports Goods & Services USD Billion | 23,083 | 23,990 | 25,123 | Average ∆% 2006-2015 20,390 |
| Value of Exports of Goods USD Billion | 18,591 | 19,281 | 20,132 | Average ∆% 2006-2015 16,396 |
| Average Oil Price USD/Barrel | 104.07 | 104.17 | 97.92 | Average ∆% 2006-2015 88.84 |
| Average Annual ∆% Export Unit Value of Manufactures | -1.1 | -0.3 | -0.4 | Average ∆% 2006-2015 1.4 |
| Exports of Goods & Services | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | Average ∆% 2016-2019 |
| Euro Area | 1.4 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 4.7 |
| EMDE | 4.4 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 6.2 |
| G7 | 1.4 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 4.9 |
| Imports Goods & Services | ||||
| Euro Area | 0.3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 4.7 |
| EMDE | 5.6 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 6.4 |
| G7 | 1.1 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 4.9 |
| Terms of Trade of Goods & Services | ||||
| Euro Area | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.7 | -0.1 |
| EMDE | 0.7 | -0.4 | -0.6 | -0.4 |
| G7 | 0.7 | -0.044 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Terms of Trade of Goods | ||||
| Euro Area | 0.8 | -0.044 | 0.1 | -0.2 |
| EMDE | -0.6 | -0.9 | -0.9 | -0.8 |
| G7 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.9 | -0.7 |
Notes: Commodity Price Index includes Fuel and Non-fuel Prices; Commodity Industrial Inputs Price includes agricultural raw materials and metal prices; Oil price is average of WTI, Brent and Dubai
Source: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook databank
http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28
The JP Morgan Global All-Industry Output Index of the JP Morgan Manufacturing and Services PMI™, produced by JP Morgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM, with high association with world GDP, increased to 54.3 in May from 52.8 in Apr, indicating expansion at faster rate (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e4a3e6a323e44c3f9d5a30c1d2c99a59). This index has remained above the contraction territory of 50.0 during 58 consecutive months. The employment index increased from 51.2 in Apr to 51.7 in May with input prices rising at faster rate, new orders increasing at faster rate and output increasing at faster rate (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e4a3e6a323e44c3f9d5a30c1d2c99a59). David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JP Morgan finds possible higher growth in the second half of the year (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e4a3e6a323e44c3f9d5a30c1d2c99a59). The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI™, produced by JP Morgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM, increased at 52.2 in May from 51.9 in Apr (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/fe712f3189ef4f73910514ced33c78d1). New export orders expanded for the eleventh consecutive month (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/fe712f3189ef4f73910514ced33c78d1). David Hensley, Director of Global Economic Coordination at JP Morgan finds improvement of the index with possibly higher growth in the second half of 2014 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/fe712f3189ef4f73910514ced33c78d1). The HSBC Brazil Composite Output Index, compiled by Markit, decreased from 49.9 in Apr to 49.8 in May, indicating unchanged activity of Brazil’s private sector (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/1b1eac66368b4c93b0488de12835096a). The HSBC Brazil Services Business Activity index, compiled by Markit, increased from 50.4 in Apr to 50.6 in May, indicating expanding services activity (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/1b1eac66368b4c93b0488de12835096a). André Loes, Chief Economist, Brazil, at HSBC, finds risks of slowing economic activity (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/1b1eac66368b4c93b0488de12835096a). The HSBC Brazil Purchasing Managers’ IndexTM (PMI™) decreased marginally from 49.3 in Apr to 48.8 in May, indicating moderate deterioration in manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/3b3a43fb381f4a8bb8f3f6b86953a877). André Loes, Chief Economist, Brazil at HSBC, finds weakening industrial activity in Brazil (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/3b3a43fb381f4a8bb8f3f6b86953a877).
VA United States. The Markit Flash US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) seasonally adjusted increased to 56.2 in May from 55.4 in Apr (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/1132ab4261d34b5a9194a1c5aed2ddad). New export orders registered 51.5 in May, decreasing from 51.7 in Apr, indicating expansion at a slower rate. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds that manufacturing hiring is growing with creation of about 15,000 to 20,000 jobs per month and output increasing at the fastest pace in more than three years (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/1132ab4261d34b5a9194a1c5aed2ddad). The Markit Flash US Services PMI™ Business Activity Index increased from 55.0 in Apr to 58.4 in May (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/772f9f410a674dc28ef47cfce6cc9ab1). Tim Moore, Senior Economist at Markit, finds that the surveys are consistent with stronger growth in IIQ2014 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/772f9f410a674dc28ef47cfce6cc9ab1). The Markit US Composite PMI™ Output Index of Manufacturing and Services increased to 58.4 in May from 55.6 in Apr (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/79ce2aae785c47a4b99b1233d757b169). The Markit US Services PMI™ Business Activity Index increased from 55.0 in Apr to 58.1 in May (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/79ce2aae785c47a4b99b1233d757b169). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds the indexes consistent with US growth at annual rate of 3.0 percent in IIQ2014 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/79ce2aae785c47a4b99b1233d757b169). The Markit US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) increased to 56.4 in May from 55.4 in Apr, which indicates expansion at faster rate (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4de925caab7141c9ab46942a017cba27). The index of new exports orders increased from 51.7 in Apr to 52.2 in May while total new orders decreased from 58.9 in Apr to 58.8 in May. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds that the index suggests output growth at the fastest pace since the Global Recession (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4de925caab7141c9ab46942a017cba27). The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Report on Business® increased 0.5 percentage points from 54.9 in Apr to 55.4 in May, which indicates growth at a faster rate (http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm?navItemNumber=12942). The index of new orders increased 1.8 percentage points from 55.1 in Apr to 56.9 in May. The index of exports decreased 0.5 percentage point from 57.0 in Apr to 56.5 in May, growing at a slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report on Business® PMI increased 1.1 percentage points from 55.2 in Apr to 56.3 in May, indicating growth of business activity/production during 58 consecutive months, while the index of new orders increased 2.3 percentage points from 58.2 in Apr to 60.5 in May (http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm?navItemNumber=12943). Table USA provides the country economic indicators for the US.
Table USA, US Economic Indicators
| Consumer Price Index | Apr 12 months NSA ∆%: 2.0; ex food and energy ∆%: 1.8 Apr month SA ∆%: 0.3; ex food and energy ∆%: 0.2 |
| Producer Price Index | Finished Goods Apr 12-month NSA ∆%: 3.1; ex food and energy ∆% 1.7 Final Demand Apr 12-month NSA ∆%: 2.1; ex food and energy ∆% 1.9 |
| PCE Inflation | Apr 12-month NSA ∆%: headline 1.6; ex food and energy ∆% 1.4 |
| Employment Situation | Household Survey: May Unemployment Rate SA 6.3% |
| Nonfarm Hiring | Nonfarm Hiring fell from 63.3 million in 2006 to 54.2 million in 2013 or by 9.1 million |
| GDP Growth | BEA Revised National Income Accounts IIQ2012/IIQ2011 2.8 IIIQ2012/IIIQ2011 3.1 IVQ2012/IVQ2011 2.0 IQ2013/IQ2012 1.3 IIQ2013/IIQ2012 1.6 IIIQ2013/IIIQ2012 2.0 IVQ2013/IVQ2012 2.6 IQ2014/IQ2013 2.0 IQ2012 SAAR 3.7 IIQ2012 SAAR 1.2 IIIQ2012 SAAR 2.8 IVQ2012 SAAR 0.1 IQ2013 SAAR 1.1 IIQ2013 SAAR 2.5 IIIQ2013 SAAR 4.1 IVQ2013 SAAR 2.6 IQ2014 SAAR -1.0 |
| Real Private Fixed Investment | SAAR IQ2014 minus 2.3 ∆% IVQ2007 to IQ2014: minus 3.5% Blog 6/1/14 |
| Corporate Profits | IQ2014 SAAR: Corporate Profits -9.8; Undistributed Profits -19.0 Blog 6/1/14 |
| Personal Income and Consumption | Apr month ∆% SA Real Disposable Personal Income (RDPI) SA ∆% 0.2 |
| Quarterly Services Report | IVQ13/IVQ12 NSA ∆%: Financial & Insurance 5.6 |
| Employment Cost Index | Compensation Private IQ2014 SA ∆%: 0.3 |
| Industrial Production | Apr month SA ∆%: -0.6 Manufacturing Apr SA ∆% minus 0.4 Apr 12 months SA ∆% 2.9, NSA 2.5 |
| Productivity and Costs | Nonfarm Business Productivity IQ2014∆% SAAE -3.2; IQ2014/IQ2013 ∆% 1.0; Unit Labor Costs SAAE IQ2014 ∆% 5.7; IQ2014/IQ2013 ∆%: 1.2 Blog 6/8/2014 |
| New York Fed Manufacturing Index | General Business Conditions From Apr 1.29 to May 19.01 |
| Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index | General Index from Apr 16.6 to May 15.4 |
| Manufacturing Shipments and Orders | New Orders SA Apr ∆% 0.7 Ex Transport 0.5 Jan-Apr NSA New Orders ∆% 2.8 Ex transport 1.9 |
| Durable Goods | Apr New Orders SA ∆%: 0.8; ex transport ∆%: 0.1 |
| Sales of New Motor Vehicles | Jan-Apr 2014 5,134,255; Jan-Apr 2013 4,980,081. Apr 14 SAAR 16.04 million, Mar 14 SAAR 16.40 million, Apr 2013 SAAR 15.19 million Blog 5/4/14 |
| Sales of Merchant Wholesalers | Jan-Mar 2014/Jan-Mar 2013 NSA ∆%: Total 4.3; Durable Goods: 3.5; Nondurable |
| Sales and Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers | Mar 14 12-M NSA ∆%: Sales Total Business 3.9; Manufacturers 2.7 |
| Sales for Retail and Food Services | Jan-Apr 2014/Jan-Apr 2013 ∆%: Retail and Food Services 3.0; Retail ∆% 1.9 |
| Value of Construction Put in Place | Apr SAAR month SA ∆%: 0.2 Apr 12-month NSA: 8.1 |
| Case-Shiller Home Prices | Mar 2014/Mar 2013 ∆% NSA: 10 Cities 12.6; 20 Cities: 12.4 |
| FHFA House Price Index Purchases Only | Mar SA ∆% 0.7; |
| New House Sales | Apr 2014 month SAAR ∆%: 6.4 |
| Housing Starts and Permits | Apr Starts month SA ∆% 13.2; Permits ∆%: 8.0 |
| Trade Balance | Balance Apr SA -$47,236 million versus Mar -$44,176 million |
| Export and Import Prices | Apr 12-month NSA ∆%: Imports -0.3; Exports 0.1 |
| Consumer Credit | Mar ∆% annual rate: Total 6.7; Revolving 1.6; Nonrevolving 8.7 |
| Net Foreign Purchases of Long-term Treasury Securities | Mar Net Foreign Purchases of Long-term US Securities: $4.0 billion |
| Treasury Budget | Fiscal Year 2014/2013 ∆% Apr: Receipts 8.2; Outlays minus 2.4; Individual Income Taxes 3.5 Deficit Fiscal Year 2012 $1,087 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2013 $680 billion Blog 5/18/2014 |
| CBO Budget and Economic Outlook | 2012 Deficit $1087 B 6.8% GDP Debt 11,281 B 70.1% GDP 2013 Deficit $680 B, 4.1% GDP Debt 11,982 B 72.1% GDP Blog 8/26/12 11/18/12 2/10/13 9/22/13 2/16/14 |
| Commercial Banks Assets and Liabilities | Apr 2014 SAAR ∆%: Securities 3.7 Loans 8.3 Cash Assets 2.2 Deposits 9.3 Blog 5/25/14 |
| Flow of Funds | IVQ2013 ∆ since 2007 Assets +$12,272.6 BN Nonfinancial -$729.2 BN Real estate -$1380.6 BN Financial +13,001.7 BN Net Worth +$12,910.9 BN Blog 3/16/14 |
| Current Account Balance of Payments | IVQ2013 -83,739 MM %GDP 2.2 Blog 3/23/14 |
Links to blog comments in Table USA:
6/1/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-instability-mediocre-cyclical.html
5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html
5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html
5/11/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/rules-discretionary-authorities-and.html
5/4/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html
3/23/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/interest-rate-risks-world-inflation.html
3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html
2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html
9/22/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html
2/10/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/united-states-unsustainable-fiscal.html
Motor vehicle sales and production in the US have been in long-term structural change. Table VA-1 provides the data on new motor vehicle sales and domestic car production in the US from 1990 to 2010. New motor vehicle sales grew from 14,137 thousand in 1990 to the peak of 17,806 thousand in 2000 or 29.5 percent. In that same period, domestic car production fell from 6,231 thousand in 1990 to 5,542 thousand in 2000 or -11.1 percent. New motor vehicle sales fell from 17,445 thousand in 2005 to 11,772 in 2010 or 32.5 percent while domestic car production fell from 4,321 thousand in 2005 to 2,840 thousand in 2010 or 34.3 percent. In May 2014, light vehicle sales accumulated to 6,742,948, which is higher by 5.0 percent relative to 6,424,707 a year earlier (http://motorintelligence.com/m_frameset.html). The seasonally adjusted annual rate of light vehicle sales in the US reached 16.77 million in May 2014, higher than 16.04 million in Apr 2014 and higher than 15.48 million in May 2013 (http://motorintelligence.com/m_frameset.html).
Table VA-1, US, New Motor Vehicle Sales and Car Production, Thousand Units
| New Motor Vehicle Sales | New Car Sales and Leases | New Truck Sales and Leases | Domestic Car Production | |
| 1990 | 14,137 | 9,300 | 4,837 | 6,231 |
| 1991 | 12,725 | 8,589 | 4,136 | 5,454 |
| 1992 | 13,093 | 8,215 | 4,878 | 5,979 |
| 1993 | 14,172 | 8,518 | 5,654 | 5,979 |
| 1994 | 15,397 | 8,990 | 6,407 | 6,614 |
| 1995 | 15,106 | 8,536 | 6,470 | 6,340 |
| 1996 | 15,449 | 8,527 | 6,922 | 6,081 |
| 1997 | 15,490 | 8,273 | 7,218 | 5,934 |
| 1998 | 15,958 | 8,142 | 7,816 | 5,554 |
| 1999 | 17,401 | 8,697 | 8,704 | 5,638 |
| 2000 | 17,806 | 8,852 | 8,954 | 5,542 |
| 2001 | 17,468 | 8,422 | 9,046 | 4,878 |
| 2002 | 17,144 | 8,109 | 9,036 | 5,019 |
| 2003 | 16,968 | 7,611 | 9,357 | 4,510 |
| 2004 | 17,298 | 7,545 | 9,753 | 4,230 |
| 2005 | 17,445 | 7,720 | 9,725 | 4,321 |
| 2006 | 17,049 | 7,821 | 9,228 | 4,367 |
| 2007 | 16,460 | 7,618 | 8,683 | 3,924 |
| 2008 | 13,494 | 6,814 | 6.680 | 3,777 |
| 2009 | 10,601 | 5,456 | 5,154 | 2,247 |
| 2010 | 11,772 | 5,729 | 6,044 | 2,840 |
Source: US Census Bureau
http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/cats/wholesale_retail_trade/motor_vehicle_sales.html
Chart VA-1 of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve provides output of motor vehicles and parts in the United States from 1972 to 2014. Output virtually stagnated since the late 1990s.
Chart VA-1, US, Motor Vehicles and Parts Output, 1972-2014
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm
Manufacturers’ shipments increased 0.3 percent in Apr 2014 and 0.4 percent in Mar 2014 after increasing 1.0 percent in Feb 2014. New orders increased 0.7 percent in Apr 2014, after increasing 1.5 percent in Mar 2014 and increasing 1.7 percent in Feb 2014, as shown in Table VA-2. These data are very volatile. Volatility is illustrated by increase of 2642.2 percent of new orders of nondefense aircraft in Sep 2012 following decline by 97.2 percent in Aug. New orders excluding transportation equipment increased 0.5 percent in Apr 2014 after increasing 0.8 percent in Mar 2014 and increasing 0.8 percent in Feb 2014. Capital goods new orders, indicating investment, increased 3.0 percent in Apr 2014 after increasing 10.5 percent in Mar 2014 and decreasing 0.6 percent in Feb 2014. New orders of nondefense capital goods decreased 1.0 percent in Apr 2014 after increasing 9.7 percent in Mar 2014 and decreasing 1.8 percent in Feb 2014. Excluding more volatile aircraft, capital goods orders decreased 1.2 percent in Apr 2014 after increasing 4.7 percent in Mar 2014 and increasing 0.1 percent in Feb 2014.
Table VA-2, US, Value of Manufacturers’ Shipments and New Orders, SA, Month ∆%
| Apr 2014 | Mar 2013 ∆% | Feb 2013 | |
| Total | |||
| S | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| NO | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Excluding | |||
| S | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.8 |
| NO | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Excluding | |||
| S | 0.4 | 0.3 | 1.1 |
| NO | -0.1 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Durable Goods | |||
| S | -0.1 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| NO | 0.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 |
| Machinery | |||
| S | -1.2 | 3.0 | 2.3 |
| NO | -2.8 | 4.3 | 0.1 |
| Computers & Electronic Products | |||
| S | 0.6 | 1.2 | -1.2 |
| NO | -1.3 | 7.2 | -0.2 |
| Computers | |||
| S | 3.9 | 0.5 | -1.1 |
| NO | -13.2 | 7.3 | 70.7 |
| Transport | |||
| S | -0.8 | 1.0 | 2.3 |
| NO | 1.4 | 5.2 | 6.9 |
| Automobiles | |||
| S | -5.7 | -6.5 | 5.6 |
| Motor Vehicles | |||
| S | -0.3 | 0.0 | 4.7 |
| NO | -0.2 | 0.5 | 4.2 |
| Nondefense | |||
| S | -0.9 | 4.0 | -4.8 |
| NO | -7.9 | 12.3 | 11.4 |
| Capital Goods | |||
| S | -0.4 | 2.3 | 0.3 |
| NO | 3.0 | 10.5 | -0.6 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | |||
| S | -0.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 |
| NO | -1.0 | 9.7 | -1.8 |
| Capital Goods ex Aircraft | |||
| S | -0.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| NO | -1.2 | 4.7 | 0.1 |
| Nondurable Goods | |||
| S | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.9 |
| NO | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.9 |
Note: Mfg: manufacturing; S: shipments; NO: new orders; Transport: transportation
Source: US Census Bureau
http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/
Chart VA-2 of the US Census Bureau provides new orders of manufacturers from Apr 2013 to Mar 2014. There is significant volatility that prevents discerning clear trends.
Chart VA-2, US, Manufacturers’ New Orders 2013-2014 Seasonally Adjusted, Month ∆%
Source: US Census Bureau
http://www.census.gov/briefrm/esbr/www/esbr022.html
Chart VA-3 of the US Census Bureau provides total value of manufacturers’ new orders, seasonally adjusted, from 1992 to 2014. Seasonal adjustment reduces sharp oscillations. The series dropped nearly vertically during the global recession but rose along a path even steeper than in the high-growth period before the recession. The final segment suggests deceleration but similar segments occurred in earlier periods followed with continuing growth and stability currently.
Chart VA-3, US, Value of Total Manufacturers’ New Orders, Seasonally Adjusted, 1992-2014
Source: US Census Bureau
http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/
Additional perspective on manufacturers’ shipments and new orders is provided by Table VA-3. Values are cumulative millions of dollars in Jan-Apr 2014 not seasonally adjusted (NSA). Shipments of all manufacturing industries in Jan-Apr 2014 total $1935.2 billion and new orders total $1933.7 billion, growing respectively by 2.3 percent and 2.8 percent relative to the same period in 2013. Excluding transportation equipment, shipments grew 2.0 percent and new orders increased 1.9 percent. Excluding defense, shipments grew 2.4 percent and new orders grew 2.5 percent. Durable goods shipments reached $921.6 billion in Jan-Apr 2014, or 47.6 percent of the total, growing by 3.9 percent, and new orders $920.1 billion, or 47.6 percent of the total, growing by 4.9 percent. Important information in Table VA-3 is the large share of nondurable goods with shipments of $1013.6 billion or 52.4 percent of the total, growing by 0.9 percent. Capital goods have relatively high value of $329.1 billion for shipments, growing 3.9 percent, and new orders $345.8 billion, increasing 4.6 percent, which could be an indicator of future investment. Excluding aircraft, capital goods shipments reached $262.7 billion, growing 3.0 percent, and new orders $279.9 billion, increasing 3.1 percent. There is no suggestion in these data that the US economy is close to recession but manufacturing accounts for 11.0 percent of US national income in IVQ2013. These data are not adjusted for inflation.
Table VA-3, US, Value of Manufacturers’ Shipments and New Orders, NSA, Millions of Dollars
| Jan-Apr 2014 | Shipments | ∆% 2013/ | New Orders | ∆% 2013/ |
| Total | 1,935,202 | 2.3 | 1,933,703 | 2.8 |
| Excluding Transport | 1,664,224 | 2.0 | 1,656,336 | 1.9 |
| Excluding Defense | 1,890,051 | 2.4 | 1,888,648 | 2.5 |
| Durable Goods | 921,636 | 3.9 | 920,137 | 4.9 |
| Machinery | 139,826 | 3.5 | 149,255 | 7.0 |
| Computers & Electronic Products | 110,749 | 4.8 | 84,096 | 4.3 |
| Computers | 1,577 | -23.3 | 1,357 | -40.6 |
| Transport Equipment | 270,978 | 4.1 | 277,367 | 8.5 |
| Automobiles | 36,321 | -14.4 | ||
| Motor Vehicles | 82,499 | 8.1 | 82,842 | 8.3 |
| Nondefense Aircraft | 43,746 | 15.5 | 49,148 | 14.3 |
| Capital Goods | 329,091 | 3.9 | 345,838 | 4.6 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 292,250 | 4.6 | 308,469 | 2.9 |
| Capital Goods ex Aircraft | 262,667 | 3.0 | 279,925 | 3.1 |
| Nondurable Goods | 1,013,566 | 0.9 | 1,013,566 | 0.9 |
| Food Products | 256,761 | 5.7 | ||
| Petroleum Refineries | 266,763 | -1.8 | ||
| Chemical Products | 251,540 | -1.0 |
Note: Transport: transportation Source: US Census Bureau
Source: US Census Bureau
http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/
Chart VA-4 of the US Census Bureau provides value of manufacturer’s new orders not seasonally adjusted from Jan 1992 to Apr 2014. Fluctuations are evident, which are smoothed by seasonal adjustment in the above Chart VA-3. The series drops nearly vertically during the global contraction and then resumes growth in a steep upward trend, flattening recently.
Chart VA-4, US, Value of Total Manufacturers’ New Orders, Not Seasonally Adjusted, 1992-2014
Source: US Census Bureau
http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/
Construction spending at seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) reached $953.5 billion in Apr 2013, which was higher by 0.2 percent than in the prior month of Mar 2014, as shown in Table VA-4. Residential investment, with $382.9 billion accounting for 40.2 percent of total value of construction, changed 0.0 percent in Apr and nonresidential investment, with $570.6 billion accounting for 59.8 percent of the total, increased 0.4 percent. Public construction increased 0.8 percent while private construction changed 0.0 percent. Data in Table VA-4 show that nonresidential construction at $570.6 billion is much higher in value than residential construction at $382.9 billion while total private construction at $686.5 billion is much higher than public construction at $267.0 billion, all in SAAR. Residential and nonresidential construction contributed positively to growth of GDP in the US in all quarters in 2012. Nonresidential investment deducted 0.57 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2013 while residential construction added 0.34 percentage points. Nonresidential construction added 0.56 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2013 with residential construction adding 0.40 percentage points. Nonresidential construction added 0.58 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2013 while residential construction added 0.31 percentage points. Nonresidential construction added 0.68 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2013 while residential construction deducted 0.26 percentage points. In 2012, residential construction added 0.32 percentage points to GDP growth and added 0.01 percentage points in 2011. Residential construction added 0.33 percentage points to GDP growth in 2013. Nonresidential construction added 0.85 percentage points to GDP growth in 2012 and 0.84 percentage points in 2011. Nonresidential construction added 0.33 percentage points to GDP growth in 2013. In IQ2014, residential construction deducted 0.20 percentage points from GDP growth and nonresidential construction deducted 0.16 percentage points (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-instability-mediocre-cyclical.html).
Table VA-4, Construction Put in Place in the United States Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Million Dollars and Month and 12-Month ∆%
| Apr 2014 | Apr 2014 SAAR $ Millions | Month ∆% | 12-Month ∆% |
| Total | 953,548 | 0.2 | 8.6 |
| Residential | 382,942 | 0.0 | 16.3 |
| Nonresidential | 570,606 | 0.4 | 3.9 |
| Total Private | 686,542 | 0.0 | 11.7 |
| Private Residential | 378,520 | 0.1 | 17.2 |
| New Single Family | 189,551 | 1.3 | 14.5 |
| New Multi-Family | 40,388 | 2.7 | 31.2 |
| Private Nonresidential | 308,022 | -0.1 | 5.6 |
| Total Public | 267,006 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Public Residential | 4,421 | -6.0 | -29.3 |
| Public Nonresidential | 262,584 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
SAAR: seasonally adjusted annual rate; B: billions
Source: US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html
Further information on construction spending is provided in Table VA-5. The original monthly estimates not-seasonally adjusted (NSA) and their 12-month rates of change are provided in the first two columns while the SAARs and their monthly changes are provided in the final two columns. There has been improvement in construction in the US. There are only five declines in the monthly rate from Dec 2011 to Apr 2014. Growth in 12 months fell from 9.5 percent in Dec 2012 to 4.9 percent in Dec 2013, rebounding 8.1 percent in Apr 2014.
Table VA-5, US, Value and Percentage Change in Value of Construction Put in Place, Dollars Millions and ∆%
| Value NSA | 12-Month ∆% NSA | Value | Month ∆% SA* | |
| Apr 2014 | 76,263 | 8.1 | 953,548 | 0.2 |
| Mar | 70,248 | 9.7 | 951,582 | 0.6 |
| Feb | 63,348 | 8.6 | 946,109 | 0.4 |
| Jan | 64,511 | 9.1 | 942,494 | -0.4 |
| Dec 2013 | 71,502 | 4.9 | 946,712 | 2.0 |
| Nov | 77,931 | 1.1 | 928,312 | 0.6 |
| Oct | 85,193 | 4.5 | 922,898 | 0.7 |
| Sep | 85,383 | 5.7 | 916,520 | 1.4 |
| Aug | 85,677 | 4.9 | 903,786 | 0.1 |
| Jul | 83,104 | 5.3 | 902,854 | 0.6 |
| Jun | 81,722 | 4.9 | 897,113 | 0.1 |
| May | 77,327 | 7.0 | 896,134 | 2.0 |
| Apr | 70,535 | 6.5 | 878,396 | 1.1 |
| Mar | 64,036 | 5.3 | 869,164 | -0.1 |
| Feb | 58,395 | 4.3 | 869,909 | 0.8 |
| Jan | 59,143 | 6.2 | 863,136 | -2.3 |
| Dec 2012 | 68,136 | 9.5 | 883,550 | 0.1 |
| Nov | 77,091 | 12.0 | 882,685 | 2.3 |
| Oct | 81,520 | 9.8 | 863,065 | -1.2 |
| Sep | 80,812 | 7.2 | 873,259 | 2.2 |
| Aug | 81,712 | 6.0 | 854,048 | -0.3 |
| Jul | 78,897 | 9.4 | 856,348 | 0.1 |
| Jun | 77,876 | 6.9 | 855,779 | 1.3 |
| May | 72,240 | 9.8 | 844,709 | 1.4 |
| Apr | 66,223 | 7.8 | 833,243 | 0.8 |
| Mar | 60,796 | 7.5 | 826,641 | 0.4 |
| Feb | 55,981 | 10.8 | 823,331 | 0.7 |
| Jan | 55,671 | 9.3 | 817,616 | 0.0 |
| Dec 2011 | 62,242 | 3.4 | 817,569 | 1.0 |
SAAR: Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Source: US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html
The sharp contraction of the value of construction in the US is revealed by Table VA-6. Construction spending in Jan-Apr 2014, not seasonally adjusted, reached $274.5billion, which is higher by 8.9 percent than $252.1 billion in the same period in 2013. The depth of the contraction is shown by the decline of construction spending from $350.7 billion in Jan-Apr 2006 to $274.5 billion in the same period in 2014, or decline by minus 21.7 percent. The decline in inflation-adjusted terms is much higher. The all-items not seasonally adjusted CPI (consumer price index) increased from 201.5 in Apr 2006 to 237.072 in Apr 2014 (http://www.bls.gov/cpi/data.htm) or by 17.7 percent. The comparable decline from Jan-Apr 2005 to Jan-Apr 2014 is minus 11.6 percent. Construction spending in Jan-Apr 2014 increased by 8.7 percent relative to the same period in 2003. Construction spending is lower by 2.0 percent in Jan-Feb 2014 relative to the same period in 2009. Construction has been weaker than the economy as a whole.
Table VA-6, US, Value of Construction Put in Place in the United States, Not Seasonally Adjusted, $ Millions and ∆%
| Jan-Apr 2014 $ MM | 274,460 |
| Jan-Apr 2013 | 252,109 |
| ∆% to 2014 | 8.9 |
| Jan-Apr 2012 $ MM | 238,671 |
| ∆% to 2014 | 15.0 |
| Jan-Apr 2011 $ MM | 219,489 |
| ∆% to 2014 | 25.0 |
| Jan-Apr 2010 $MM | 236,255 |
| ∆% to 2014 | 16.2 |
| Jan-Apr 2009 | 280,051 |
| ∆% to 2014 | -2.0 |
| Jan-Apr 2006 $ MM | 350,715 |
| ∆% to 2014 | -21.7 |
| Jan-Apr 2005 $ MM | 310,352 |
| ∆% to 2014 | -11.6 |
| Jan-Apr 2003 $ MM | 252,447 |
| ∆% to 2014 | 8.7 |
Source: US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html
Chart VA-5 of the US Census Bureau provides value of construction spending in the US not seasonally adjusted from 2002 to 2014. There are wide oscillations requiring seasonal adjustment to compare adjacent data. There was sharp decline during the global recession followed in recent periods by a stationary series that may be moving upward again with vacillation in the final segment.
Chart VA-5, Value of Construction Spending not Seasonally Adjusted, Millions of Dollars, 2002-2014
Source: US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html
Monthly construction spending in the US in Jan-Apr and Nov-Dec not seasonally adjusted is shown in Table VA-7 for the years between 2002 and 2014. The value of $76.3 billion in Apr 2014 is higher by 8.1 percent than $70.5billion in Apr 2013. Construction fell by 20.0 percent from the peak of $95.3 billion in Apr 2006 to $76.3 billion in Apr 2014. The data are not adjusted for inflation or changes in quality.
Table VA-7, US, Value of Construction Spending Not Seasonally Adjusted, Millions of Dollars
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | Nov | Dec |
| 2002 | 59,516 | 58,588 | 63,782 | 69,504 | 71,362 | 63,984 |
| 2003 | 59,877 | 58,526 | 64,506 | 69,638 | 77,915 | 71,050 |
| 2004 | 64,934 | 64,138 | 73,238 | 78,354 | 86,394 | 77,733 |
| 2005 | 71,474 | 72,048 | 81,345 | 85,485 | 97,549 | 88,172 |
| 2006 | 81,058 | 81,478 | 92,855 | 95,324 | 95,339 | 86,436 |
| 2007 | 79,406 | 79,177 | 88,905 | 93,375 | 94,822 | 84,218 |
| 2008 | 77,349 | 77,227 | 82,779 | 87,743 | 86,067 | 76,645 |
| 2009 | 66,944 | 66,296 | 71,624 | 75,187 | 71,906 | 64,098 |
| 2010 | 55,586 | 54,019 | 60,228 | 66,422 | 68,019 | 60,202 |
| 2011 | 50,955 | 50,544 | 56,536 | 61,454 | 68,809 | 62,242 |
| 2012 | 55,671 | 55,981 | 60,796 | 66,223 | 77,091 | 68,136 |
| 2013 | 59,143 | 58,395 | 64,036 | 70,535 | 77,931 | 71,502 |
| 2014 | 64,511 | 63,438 | 70,248 | 76,263 | NA | NA |
Source: US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html
Chart VA-6 of the US Census Bureau shows SAARs of construction spending for the US since 1993. Construction spending surged in nearly vertical slope after the stimulus of 2003 combining near zero interest rates together with other housing subsidies and subsequent slow adjustment in 17 doses of increases by 25 basis points between Jun 2004 and Jun 2006. Construction spending collapsed after subprime mortgages defaulted with the fed funds rate increasing from 1.00 percent in Jun 2004 to 5.25 percent in Jun 2006. Subprime mortgages were programmed for refinancing in two years after increases in homeowner equity in the assumption that fed funds rates would remain low forever or increase in small increments (Gorton 2009EFM see http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2011/07/causes-of-2007-creditdollar-crisis.html). Price declines of houses or even uncertainty prevented refinancing of subprime mortgages that defaulted, causing the financial crisis that eventually triggered the global recession. Chart VA-9 shows a trend of increase in the final segment but it is difficult to assess if it is sustainable.
Chart VA-6, US, Construction Expenditures SAAR 1993-2014
Source: US Census Bureau
http://www.census.gov/briefrm/esbr/www/esbr050.html
Construction spending at SAARs in the four months Jan-Apr and Dec is shown in Table VA-8 for the years between 2002 and 2014. There is a peak in 2005 to 2007 with subsequent collapse of SAARs and rebound in 2012-2014.
Table VA-8, US, Value of Construction Spending SAAR Millions of Dollars
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | Dec |
| 2002 | 858,654 | 862,338 | 844,551 | 858,240 | 855,921 |
| 2003 | 863,855 | 859,225 | 851,132 | 859,459 | 948,491 |
| 2004 | 938,826 | 938,656 | 960,946 | 967,761 | 1,037,684 |
| 2005 | 1,036,187 | 1,056,492 | 1,065,262 | 1,058,365 | 1,178,305 |
| 2006 | 1,183,861 | 1,199,767 | 1,213,270 | 1,183,485 | 1,153,491 |
| 2007 | 1,149,899 | 1,156,008 | 1,167,402 | 1,159,124 | 1,108,958 |
| 2008 | 1,106,047 | 1,092,331 | 1,094,910 | 1,091,142 | 993,515 |
| 2009 | 962,704 | 959,907 | 954,984 | 929,593 | 832,565 |
| 2010 | 816,132 | 795,808 | 805,985 | 824,008 | 779,895 |
| 2011 | 757,039 | 754,169 | 763,058 | 772,204 | 817,569 |
| 2012 | 817,616 | 823,331 | 826,641 | 833,243 | 883,550 |
| 2013 | 863,136 | 869,909 | 869,164 | 878,396 | 946,712 |
| 2014 | 942,494 | 946,109 | 951,582 | 953,548 | NA |
Source: US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html
Chart VA-7 of the US Census Bureau provides SAARs of value of construction from 2002 to 2014. There is clear acceleration after 2003 when fed funds rates were fixed at 1.0 percent from Jun 2003 until Jun 2004. Construction peaked in 2005-2006, stabilizing in 2007 at a lower level and then collapsed in a nearly vertical drop until 2011 with increases into 2012 and marginal drop in Jan 2013 followed by increase in Feb 2013 and decline in Mar 2013 followed by continuing increase in Apr-May 2013. Construction stabilized in Jun 2013 and increased in Jul-Aug 2013. Construction declined in Sep 2013 and increased in Oct-Dec 2013 and Feb-Apr 2014.
Chart VA-7, US, Construction Expenditures SAAR 2002-2014
Source: US Census Bureau
http://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html
Chart VA-8 of the US Census Bureau provides monthly residential construction in the US not seasonally adjusted from 2002 to 2014. There was steep increase until 2006 followed by sharp contraction. The series stabilized at the bottom and increased in the final segment with subsequent stability.
Chart VA-8, US, Residential Construction, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Millions of Dollars, 2002-2014
Source: US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html
Chart VA-9 of the US Census Bureau provides monthly nonresidential construction in the US not seasonally adjusted. There is similar acceleration until 2006 followed by milder contraction than for residential construction. The final segment appears stationary.
Chart VA-9, US, Nonresidential Construction, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Millions of Dollars, 2002-2014
http://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html
Annual available data for the value of construction put in place in the US between 1993 and 2013 are provided in Table VA-9. Data from 1993 to 2001 are available for public and private construction with breakdown in residential and nonresidential only for private construction. Data beginning in 2002 provide aggregate residential and nonresidential values. Total construction value put in place in the US increased 85.2 percent between 1993 and 2013 but most of the growth, 65.3 percent, was concentrated in 1993 to 2000 with increase of 12.0 percent between 2000 and 2013. Total value of construction increased 6.1 percent between 2002 and 2013 with value of nonresidential construction increasing 26.0 percent while value of residential construction fell 16.1 percent. Value of total construction fell 18.6 percent between 2005 and 2013, with value of residential construction declining 45.4 percent while value of nonresidential construction rose 15.5 percent. Value of total construction fell 23.0 percent between 2006 and 2013, with value of nonresidential construction increasing 2.7 percent while value of residential construction fell 45.6 percent. In 2002, nonresidential construction had share of 52.6 percent in total construction while the share of residential construction was 47.4 percent. In 2013, the share of nonresidential construction in total value rose to 62.5 percent while that of residential construction fell to 37.5 percent.
Table VA-9, Annual Value of Construction Put in Place 1993-2013, Millions of Dollars and ∆%
| Total | Private Nonresidential | Private Residential | |
| 1993 | 485,548 | 150,006 | 208,180 |
| 1994 | 531,892 | 160,438 | 241,033 |
| 1995 | 548,666 | 180,534 | 228,121 |
| 1996 | 599,693 | 195,523 | 257,495 |
| 1997 | 631,853 | 213,720 | 264,696 |
| 1998 | 688,515 | 237,394 | 296,343 |
| 1999 | 744,551 | 249,167 | 326,302 |
| 2000 | 802,756 | 275,293 | 346,138 |
| 2001 | 840,249 | 273,922 | 364,414 |
| Total | Total Nonresidential | Total Residential | |
| 2002 | 847,874 | 445,914 | 401,960 |
| 2003 | 891,497 | 440,246 | 451,251 |
| 2004 | 991,356 | 452,948 | 538,408 |
| 2005 | 1,104,136 | 486,629 | 617,507 |
| 2006 | 1,167,222 | 547,408 | 619,814 |
| 2007 | 1,152,351 | 651,883 | 500,468 |
| 2008 | 1,067,564 | 709,818 | 357,746 |
| 2009 | 903,201 | 649,273 | 253,928 |
| 2010 | 804,561 | 555,449 | 249,112 |
| 2011 | 788,014 | 535,357 | 252,657 |
| 2012 | 856,953 | 570,429 | 286,524 |
| 2013 | 899,949 | 562,113 | 337,836 |
| ∆% 1993-2013 | 85.2 | ||
| ∆% 1993-2000 | 65.3 | ||
| ∆% 2000-2013 | 12.0 | ||
| ∆% 2002-2013 | 6.1 | 26.0 | -16.1 |
| ∆% 2005-2013 | -18.6 | 15.5 | -45.4 |
| ∆% 2006-2013 | -23.0 | 2.7 | -45.6 |
Source: US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html
VB Japan. The GDP of Japan grew at 1.0 percent per year on average from 1991 to 2002, with the GDP implicit deflator falling at 0.8 percent per year on average. The average growth rate of Japan’s GDP was 4 percent per year on average from the middle of the 1970s to 1992 (Ito 2004). Low growth in Japan in the 1990s is commonly labeled as “the lost decade” (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 81-115). Table VB-GDP provides yearly growth rates of Japan’s GDP from 1995 to 2013. Growth weakened from 2.7 per cent in 1995 and 1996 to contractions of 1.5 percent in 1999 and 0.4 percent in 2001 and growth rates below 2 percent with exception of 2.3 percent in 2003. Japan’s GDP contracted sharply by 3.7 percent in 2006 and 2.0 percent in 2009. As in most advanced economies, growth was robust at 3.4 percent in 2010 but mediocre at 0.3 percent in 2011 and 0.7 percent in 2013. Japan’s GDP grew 2.3 percent in 2013.
Table VB-GDP, Japan, Yearly Percentage Change of GDP ∆%
| Calendar Year | ∆% |
| 1995 | 2.7 |
| 1996 | 2.7 |
| 1997 | 0.1 |
| 1998 | -1.5 |
| 1999 | 0.5 |
| 2000 | 2.0 |
| 2001 | -0.4 |
| 2002 | 1.1 |
| 2003 | 2.3 |
| 2004 | 1.5 |
| 2005 | 1.9 |
| 2006 | 1.8 |
| 2007 | 1.8 |
| 2008 | -3.7 |
| 2009 | -2.0 |
| 2010 | 3.4 |
| 2011 | 0.3 |
| 2012 | 0.7 |
| 2013 | 2.3 |
Source: Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office
http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html
http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
Table VB-BOJF provides the forecasts of economic activity and inflation in Japan by the majority of members of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, which is part of their Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1404b.pdf). For fiscal 2013, the forecast is of growth of GDP between 2.2 and 2.3 percent, with the all items CPI less fresh food of 0.8 percent (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1404b.pdf). The critical difference is forecast of the CPI excluding fresh food of 3.0 to 3.5 percent in 2014, 1.9 to 2.8 percent in 2015 and 2.0 to 3.0 in 2016. Consumer price inflation in Japan excluding fresh food was 0.3 percent in Mar 2013 and 1.3 percent in 12 months (http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1581.htm). The new monetary policy of the Bank of Japan aims to increase inflation to 2 percent. These forecasts are biannual in Apr and Oct. The Cabinet Office, Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan released on Jan 22, 2013, a “Joint Statement of the Government and the Bank of Japan on Overcoming Deflation and Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130122c.pdf) with the important change of increasing the inflation target of monetary policy from 1 percent to 2 percent:
“The Bank of Japan conducts monetary policy based on the principle that the policy shall be aimed at achieving price stability, thereby contributing to the sound development of the national economy, and is responsible for maintaining financial system stability. The Bank aims to achieve price stability on a sustainable basis, given that there are various factors that affect prices in the short run.
The Bank recognizes that the inflation rate consistent with price stability on a sustainable basis will rise as efforts by a wide range of entities toward strengthening competitiveness and growth potential of Japan's economy make progress. Based on this recognition, the Bank sets the price stability target at 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index.
Under the price stability target specified above, the Bank will pursue monetary easing and aim to achieve this target at the earliest possible time. Taking into consideration that it will take considerable time before the effects of monetary policy permeate the economy, the Bank will ascertain whether there is any significant risk to the sustainability of economic growth, including from the accumulation of financial imbalances.”
The Bank of Japan also provided explicit analysis of its view on price stability in a “Background note regarding the Bank’s thinking on price stability” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/data/rel130123a1.pdf http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130123a.htm/). The Bank of Japan also amended “Principal terms and conditions for the Asset Purchase Program” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130122a.pdf): “Asset purchases and loan provision shall be conducted up to the maximum outstanding amounts by the end of 2013. From January 2014, the Bank shall purchase financial assets and provide loans every month, the amount of which shall be determined pursuant to the relevant rules of the Bank.”
Financial markets in Japan and worldwide were shocked by new bold measures of “quantitative and qualitative monetary easing” by the Bank of Japan (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The objective of policy is to “achieve the price stability target of 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) at the earliest possible time, with a time horizon of about two years” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The main elements of the new policy are as follows:
- Monetary Base Control. Most central banks in the world pursue interest rates instead of monetary aggregates, injecting bank reserves to lower interest rates to desired levels. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has shifted back to monetary aggregates, conducting money market operations with the objective of increasing base money, or monetary liabilities of the government, at the annual rate of 60 to 70 trillion yen. The BOJ estimates base money outstanding at “138 trillion yen at end-2012) and plans to increase it to “200 trillion yen at end-2012 and 270 trillion yen at end 2014” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
- Maturity Extension of Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds. Purchases of bonds will be extended even up to bonds with maturity of 40 years with the guideline of extending the average maturity of BOJ bond purchases from three to seven years. The BOJ estimates the current average maturity of Japanese government bonds (JGB) at around seven years. The BOJ plans to purchase about 7.5 trillion yen per month (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130404d.pdf). Takashi Nakamichi, Tatsuo Ito and Phred Dvorak, wiring on “Bank of Japan mounts bid for revival,” on Apr 4, 2013, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323646604578401633067110420.html), find that the limit of maturities of three years on purchases of JGBs was designed to avoid views that the BOJ would finance uncontrolled government deficits.
- Seigniorage. The BOJ is pursuing coordination with the government that will take measures to establish “sustainable fiscal structure with a view to ensuring the credibility of fiscal management” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
- Diversification of Asset Purchases. The BOJ will engage in transactions of exchange traded funds (ETF) and real estate investment trusts (REITS) and not solely on purchases of JGBs. Purchases of ETFs will be at an annual rate of increase of one trillion yen and purchases of REITS at 30 billion yen.
- Bank Lending Facility and Growth Supporting Funding Facility. At the meeting on Feb 18, the Bank of Japan doubled the scale of these lending facilities to prevent their expiration in the near future (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140218a.pdf).
Table VB-BOJF, Bank of Japan, Forecasts of the Majority of Members of the Policy Board, % Year on Year
| Fiscal Year | Real GDP | CPI All Items Less Fresh Food | Excluding Effects of Consumption Tax Hikes |
| 2013 | |||
| Apr 2014 | +2.2 to +2.3 | +0.8 | |
| Jan 2014 | +2.5 to +2.9 [+2.7] | +0.7 to +0.9 [+0.7] | |
| Oct 2013 | +2.6 to +3.0 [+2.7] | +0.6 to +1.0 [+0.7] | |
| Jul 2013 | +2.5 to +3.0 [+2.8] | +0.5 to +0.8 [+0.6] | |
| 2014 | |||
| Apr 2014 | +0.8 to +1.3 | +3.0 to +3.5 | +1.0 to +1.5 |
| Jan 2014 | +0.9 to 1.5 [+1.4] | +2.9 to +3.6 [+3.3] | +0.9 to +1.6 [+1.3] |
| Oct 2013 | +0.9 to +1.5 [+1.5] | +2.8 to +3.6 [+3.3] | +0.8 to +1.6 [+1.3] |
| Jul 2013 | +0.8 to +1.5 [+1.3] | +2.7 to +3.6 [+3.3] | +0.7 to +1.6 [+1.3] |
| 2015 | |||
| Apr 2014 | +1.2 to +1.5 | +1.9 to +2.8 | +1.2 to +2.1 |
| Jan 2014 | +1.2 to +1.8 [+1.5] | +1.7 to +2.9 [+2.6] | +1.0 to +2.2 [+1.9] |
| Oct 2013 | +1.3 to +1.8 [+1.5] | +1.6 to +2.9 [+2.6] | +0.9 to +2.2 [+1.9] |
| Jul 2013 | +1.3 to +1.9 [+1.5] | +1.6 to +2.9 [+2.6] | +0.9 to +2.2 [+1.9] |
| 2016 | |||
| Apr 2014 | +1.0 to +1.5 | +2.0 to +3.0 | +1.3 to +2.3 |
Figures in brackets are the median of forecasts of Policy Board members
Source: Policy Board, Bank of Japan
https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1404b.pdf
The Markit/JMMA Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI Index™ improved with the Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI™ increasing from 49.4 in Apr to 49.9 in May and the Flash Japan Manufacturing Output Index™ increasing from 46.2 in Apr to 49.2 in May (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/119c7ec318e2469d9afda80921da4f09). New export orders decreased at a faster rate. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds stabilizing conditions after the stress from the increase originating in the Apr increase in sales tax with weakening demand from overseas (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/119c7ec318e2469d9afda80921da4f09). Private-sector activity in Japan contracted with the Markit Composite Output PMI Index increasing from 46.3 in Apr to 49.2 in May, indicating contraction at slower rate (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/1f89e180a434490a8d8eec09bfca6099). Amy Bronwbill, Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds marginal contraction of private sector activity (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/1f89e180a434490a8d8eec09bfca6099). The Markit Business Activity Index of Services increased to 49.3 in May from 46.4 in Apr (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/1f89e180a434490a8d8eec09bfca6099). Amy Brownbill, Ecoomist at Markit and author of the report, finds possible effects from the increase in sales taxes implemented in Apr (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/1f89e180a434490a8d8eec09bfca6099). The Markit/JMMA Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™), seasonally adjusted, increased from 49.4 in Apr to 49.9 in May (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/54e712e12b75470abeb9f27b3442436b). New orders and output fell because of demand effects caused by the sales tax increase in Apr. Amy Brownbill, Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds continuing decline of output and new orders in May but at slower rates of deterioration (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/54e712e12b75470abeb9f27b3442436b).Table JPY provides the country data table for Japan.
Table JPY, Japan, Economic Indicators
| Historical GDP and CPI | 1981-2010 Real GDP Growth and CPI Inflation 1981-2010 |
| Corporate Goods Prices | Apr ∆% 2.8 |
| Consumer Price Index | Apr NSA ∆% 2.1; Apr 12 months NSA ∆% 3.4 |
| Real GDP Growth | IQ2014 ∆%: 1.5 on IVQ2013; IQ2014 SAAR 5.9; |
| Employment Report | Apr Unemployed 2.54 million Change in unemployed since last year: minus 370 thousand |
| All Industry Indices | Mar month SA ∆% 1.5 Blog 5/25/14 |
| Industrial Production | Apr SA month ∆%: -2.5 |
| Machine Orders | Total Mar ∆% 4.0 Private ∆%: 17.3 Mar ∆% Excluding Volatile Orders 19.1 |
| Tertiary Index | Mar month SA ∆% 2.4 |
| Wholesale and Retail Sales | Apr 12 months: |
| Family Income and Expenditure Survey | Apr 12-month ∆% total nominal consumption -0.7, real -4.6 Blog 6/1/14 |
| Trade Balance | Exports Apr 12 months ∆%: 5.1 Imports Apr 12 months ∆% 3.4 Blog 5/25/14 |
Links to blog comments in Table JPY:
6/1/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-instability-mediocre-cyclical.html
5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html
5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html
4/27/14
3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html
2/23/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html
12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html
11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html
9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html
8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html
VC China. China estimates an index of nonmanufacturing purchasing managers based on a sample of 1200 nonmanufacturing enterprises across the country (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Table CIPMNM provides this index and components. The total index increased from 55.7 in Jan 2011 to 58.0 in Mar 2012, decreasing to 53.9 in Aug 2013. The index decreased from 56.0 in Nov 2013 to 54.6 in Dec 2013, easing to 53.4 in Jan 2014. The index increased to 55.5 in May 2014. The index of new orders increased from 52.2 in Jan 2012 to 54.3 in Dec 2012 but fell to 50.1 in May 2013, barely above the neutral frontier of 50.0. The index of new orders stabilized at 51.0 in Nov-Dec 2013, easing to 50.9 in Jan 2014. The index of new orders increased to 52.7 in May 2014.
Table CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted
| Total Index | New Orders | Interm. | Subs Prices | Exp | |
| May 2014 | 55.5 | 52.7 | 54.5 | 49.0 | 60.7 |
| Apr | 54.8 | 50.8 | 52.4 | 49.4 | 61.5 |
| Mar | 54.5 | 50.8 | 52.8 | 49.5 | 61.5 |
| Feb | 55.0 | 51.4 | 52.1 | 49.0 | 59.9 |
| Jan | 53.4 | 50.9 | 54.5 | 50.1 | 58.1 |
| Dec 2013 | 54.6 | 51.0 | 56.9 | 52.0 | 58.7 |
| Nov | 56.0 | 51.0 | 54.8 | 49.5 | 61.3 |
| Oct | 56.3 | 51.6 | 56.1 | 51.4 | 60.5 |
| Sep | 55.4 | 53.4 | 56.7 | 50.6 | 60.1 |
| Aug | 53.9 | 50.9 | 57.1 | 51.2 | 62.9 |
| Jul | 54.1 | 50.3 | 58.2 | 52.4 | 63.9 |
| Jun | 53.9 | 50.3 | 55.0 | 50.6 | 61.8 |
| May | 54.3 | 50.1 | 54.4 | 50.7 | 62.9 |
| Apr | 54.5 | 50.9 | 51.1 | 47.6 | 62.5 |
| Mar | 55.6 | 52.0 | 55.3 | 50.0 | 62.4 |
| Feb | 54.5 | 51.8 | 56.2 | 51.1 | 62.7 |
| Jan | 56.2 | 53.7 | 58.2 | 50.9 | 61.4 |
| Dec 2012 | 56.1 | 54.3 | 53.8 | 50.0 | 64.6 |
| Nov | 55.6 | 53.2 | 52.5 | 48.4 | 64.6 |
| Oct | 55.5 | 51.6 | 58.1 | 50.5 | 63.4 |
| Sep | 53.7 | 51.8 | 57.5 | 51.3 | 60.9 |
| Aug | 56.3 | 52.7 | 57.6 | 51.2 | 63.2 |
| Jul | 55.6 | 53.2 | 49.7 | 48.7 | 63.9 |
| Jun | 56.7 | 53.7 | 52.1 | 48.6 | 65.5 |
| May | 55.2 | 52.5 | 53.6 | 48.5 | 65.4 |
| Apr | 56.1 | 52.7 | 57.9 | 50.3 | 66.1 |
| Mar | 58.0 | 53.5 | 60.2 | 52.0 | 66.6 |
| Feb | 57.3 | 52.7 | 59.0 | 51.2 | 63.8 |
| Jan | 55.7 | 52.2 | 58.2 | 51.1 | 65.3 |
Notes: Interm.: Intermediate; Subs: Subscription; Exp: Business Expectations
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Chart CIPMNM provides China’s nonmanufacturing purchasing managers’ index. The index fell from 56.1 in Dec 2012 to 53.9 in Jun 2013. The index recovered to 56.3 in Oct 2013, decreasing marginally to 54.6 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 53.4 in Jan 2014, increasing to 55.5 in May 2014.
Chart CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Table CIPMMFG provides the index of purchasing managers of manufacturing seasonally adjusted of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The general index (IPM) rose from 50.5 in Jan 2012 to 53.3 in Apr 2012, falling to 49.2 in Aug 2012, rebounding to 50.6 in Dec 2012. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013, barely above the neutral frontier at 50.0, recovering to 51.4 in Nov 2013 but falling to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.5 in Jan 2014 and 50.8 in May 2014. The index of new orders fell from 57.2 in Apr 2012 to 52.0 in Dec 2012. The index of new orders fell from 54.5 in Nov 2013 to 53.9 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 53.0 in Jan 2014 and 52.3 in May 2014.
Table CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted
| IPM | PI | NOI | INV | EMP | SDEL | |
| May 2014 | 50.8 | 52.8 | 52.3 | 48.0 | 48.2 | 50.3 |
| Apr | 50.4 | 52.5 | 51.2 | 48.1 | 48.3 | 50.1 |
| Mar | 50.3 | 52.7 | 50.6 | 47.8 | 48.3 | 49.8 |
| Feb | 50.2 | 52.6 | 50.5 | 47.4 | 48.0 | 49.9 |
| Jan | 50.5 | 53.0 | 50.9 | 47.8 | 48.2 | 49.8 |
| Dec 2013 | 51.0 | 53.9 | 52.0 | 47.6 | 48.7 | 50.5 |
| Nov | 51.4 | 54.5 | 52.3 | 47.8 | 49.6 | 50.6 |
| Oct | 51.4 | 54.4 | 52.5 | 48.6 | 49.2 | 50.8 |
| Sep | 51.1 | 52.9 | 52.8 | 48.5 | 49.1 | 50.8 |
| Aug | 51.0 | 52.6 | 52.4 | 48.0 | 49.3 | 50.4 |
| Jul | 50.3 | 52.4 | 50.6 | 47.6 | 49.1 | 50.1 |
| Jun | 50.1 | 52.0 | 50.4 | 47.4 | 48.7 | 50.3 |
| May | 50.8 | 53.3 | 51.8 | 47.6 | 48.8 | 50.8 |
| Apr | 50.6 | 52.6 | 51.7 | 47.5 | 49.0 | 50.8 |
| Mar | 50.9 | 52.7 | 52.3 | 47.5 | 49.8 | 51.1 |
| Feb | 50.1 | 51.2 | 50.1 | 49.5 | 47.6 | 48.3 |
| Jan | 50.4 | 51.3 | 51.6 | 50.1 | 47.8 | 50.0 |
| Dec 2012 | 50.6 | 52.0 | 51.2 | 47.3 | 49.0 | 48.8 |
| Nov | 50.6 | 52.5 | 51.2 | 47.9 | 48.7 | 49.9 |
| Oct | 50.2 | 52.1 | 50.4 | 47.3 | 49.2 | 50.1 |
| Sep | 49.8 | 51.3 | 49.8 | 47.0 | 48.9 | 49.5 |
| Aug | 49.2 | 50.9 | 48.7 | 45.1 | 49.1 | 50.0 |
| Jul | 50.1 | 51.8 | 49.0 | 48.5 | 49.5 | 49.0 |
| Jun | 50.2 | 52.0 | 49.2 | 48.2 | 49.7 | 49.1 |
| May | 50.4 | 52.9 | 49.8 | 45.1 | 50.5 | 49.0 |
| Apr | 53.3 | 57.2 | 54.5 | 48.5 | 51.0 | 49.6 |
| Mar | 53.1 | 55.2 | 55.1 | 49.5 | 51.0 | 48.9 |
| Feb | 51.0 | 53.8 | 51.0 | 48.8 | 49.5 | 50.3 |
| Jan | 50.5 | 53.6 | 50.4 | 49.7 | 47.1 | 49.7 |
IPM: Index of Purchasing Managers; PI: Production Index; NOI: New Orders Index; EMP: Employed Person Index; SDEL: Supplier Delivery Time Index
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
China estimates the manufacturing index of purchasing managers on the basis of a sample of 820 enterprises (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Chart CIPMMFG provides the manufacturing index of purchasing managers. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013. The index decreased from 51.4 in Nov 2013 to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index eased to 50.8 in May 2014.
Chart CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Cumulative growth of China’s GDP in IQ2014 relative to the same period in 2013 was 7.4 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDP. Secondary industry accounts for 44.9 percent of GDP in IQ2014. In IQ2014, industry alone accounts for 39.9 percent of GDP and construction with the remaining 5.0 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 49.0 percent of cumulative GDP in IQ2014 and primary industry for 6.1 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is shifting to lower growth rates with improvement in living standards. The bottom block of Table VC-GDP provides quarter-on-quarter growth rates of GDP and their annual equivalent. China’s GDP growth decelerated significantly from annual equivalent 10.4 percent in IIQ2011 to 7.4 percent in IVQ2011 and 5.7 percent in IQ2012, rebounding to 8.7 percent in IIQ2012, 8.2 percent in IIIQ2012 and 7.8 percent in IVQ2012. Annual equivalent growth in IQ2013 fell to 6.1 percent and to 7.4 percent in IIQ2013, rebounding to 9.5 percent in IIIQ2013. Annual equivalent growth was 7.0 percent in IVQ2013, declining to 5.7 percent in IQ2014.
Table VC-GDP, China, Quarterly Growth of GDP, Current CNY 100 Million and Inflation Adjusted ∆%
| Cumulative GDP IQ2014 | Value Current CNY Billion | 2014 Year-on-Year Constant Prices ∆% |
| GDP | 12,821.3 | 7.4 |
| Primary Industry | 777.6 | 3.5 |
| Farming | 777.6 | 3.5 |
| Secondary Industry | 5,758.7 | 7.3 |
| Industry | 5,121.7 | 7.1 |
| Construction | 637.0 | 9.3 |
| Tertiary Industry | 6,285.0 | 7.8 |
| Transport, Storage, Post | 691.7 | 5.7 |
| Wholesale, Retail Trades | 1,298.2 | 9.8 |
| Hotel & Catering Services | 266.8 | 5.9 |
| Financial Intermediation | 929.1 | 9.5 |
| Real Estate | 880.5 | 3.0 |
| Other | 2,218.7 | 8.9 |
| Growth in Quarter Relative to Prior Quarter | ∆% on Prior Quarter | ∆% Annual Equivalent |
| 2014 | ||
| IQ2014 | 1.4 | 5.7 |
| 2013 | ||
| IVQ2013 | 1.7 | 7.0 |
| IIIQ2013 | 2.3 | 9.5 |
| IIQ2013 | 1.8 | 7.4 |
| IQ2013 | 1.5 | 6.1 |
| 2012 | ||
| IVQ2012 | 1.9 | 7.8 |
| IIIQ2012 | 2.0 | 8.2 |
| IIQ2012 | 2.1 | 8.7 |
| IQ2012 | 1.4 | 5.7 |
| 2011 | ||
| IVQ2011 | 1.8 | 7.4 |
| IIIQ2011 | 2.2 | 9.1 |
| IIQ2011 | 2.5 | 10.4 |
| IQ2011 | 2.3 | 9.5 |
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Growth of China’s GDP in IQ2014 relative to the same period in 2013 was 7.4 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDPA. Secondary industry accounts for 44.9 percent of GDP of which industry alone for 39.9 percent in cumulative IQ2014 and construction with the remaining 5.0 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 49.0 percent of GDP in cumulative IQ2014 and primary industry for 6.1 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is changing to lower growth rates while improving living standards. GDP growth decelerated from 12.1 percent in IQ2010 and 11.2 percent in IIQ2010 to 7.7 percent in IQ2013, 7.5 percent in IIQ2013 and 7.8 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP grew 7.4 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 1.7 percent relative to IIIQ2013, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent per year. GDP grew 7.4 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.4 percent in IQ2014 that is equivalent to 5.7 percent per year.
Table VC-GDPA, China, Growth Rate of GDP, ∆% Relative to a Year Earlier and ∆% Relative to Prior Quarter
| IQ 2013 | IIQ 2013 | IIIQ 2013 | IVQ 2013 | IQ 2014 | ||||
| GDP | 7.7 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 7.4 | |||
| Primary Industry | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 3.5 | |||
| Secondary Industry | 7.8 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.3 | |||
| Tertiary Industry | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 7.1 | |||
| GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.4 | |||
| IQ 2011 | IIQ 2011 | IIIQ 2011 | IVQ 2011 | IQ 2012 | IIQ 2012 | IIIQ 2012 | IVQ 2012 | |
| GDP | 9.7 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 7.9 |
| Primary Industry | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.5 |
| Secondary Industry | 11.1 | 11.0 | 10.8 | 10.6 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 8.1 |
| Tertiary Industry | 9.1 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 8.1 |
| GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| IQ 2010 | IIQ 2010 | IIIQ 2010 | IVQ 2010 | |||||
| GDP | 12.1 | 11.2 | 10.7 | 12.1 | ||||
| Primary Industry | 3.8 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 3.8 | ||||
| Secondary Industry | 14.5 | 13.3 | 12.6 | 14.5 | ||||
| Tertiary Industry | 10.5 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 10.5 |
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Chart VC-GDP of the National Bureau of Statistics of China provides annual value and growth rates of GDP. China’s GDP growth in 2013 is still high at 7.7 percent but at the lowest rhythm in five years.
Chart VC-GDP, China, Gross Domestic Product, Million Yuan and ∆%, 2009-2013
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Chart VC-FXR provides China’s foreign exchange reserves. FX reserves grew from $2399.2 billion in 2009 to $3821.3 billion in 2013 driven by high growth of China’s trade surplus.
Chart VC-FXR, China, Foreign Exchange Reserves, 2009-2013
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english
Chart VC-Trade provides China’s imports and exports. Exports exceeded imports with resulting large trade balance surpluses that increased foreign exchange reserves.
Chart VC-Trade, China, Imports and Exports of Goods, 2009-2013, $100 Million US Dollars
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english
The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) compiled by Markit (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4c63770d8c2c4bdaacecda6d436d4cbf) is stabilizing. The overall Flash HSBC China Manufacturing PMI™ increased from 48.1 in Apr to 49.7 in May, while the Flash HSBC China Manufacturing Output Index increased from 47.9 in Apr to 50.3 in May, indicating moderate expansion. Exports orders changed direction to expansion. Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds that the index is consistent with manufacturing stabilizing at weak levels, requiring policy to stabilize growth in the rest of the year (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4c63770d8c2c4bdaacecda6d436d4cbf). The HSBC China Services PMI™, compiled by Markit, shows marginal improvement in business activity in China with the HSBC Composite Output, combining manufacturing and services, increasing from 49.5 in Apr to 50.2 in May (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e0afee6e04114be2824bfd243cd53726). Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds need of policies to prevent decelerating growth (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e0afee6e04114be2824bfd243cd53726). The HSBC Business Activity index decreased from 51.4 in Apr to 50.7 in May (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e0afee6e04114be2824bfd243cd53726). Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds that services continue improving with relatively slow growth impulse (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e0afee6e04114be2824bfd243cd53726). The HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™), compiled by Markit, increased to 49.4 in May from 48.1 in Apr, indicating marginally deteriorating manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/57b7604739e14658a53ec5462db5cb36). New export orders increased at the fastest rate since Apr 2010 with unchanged total new orders. Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds possible stability of demand in China with possible and need of policy enhancement (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/57b7604739e14658a53ec5462db5cb36). Table CNY provides the country data table for China.
Table CNY, China, Economic Indicators
| Price Indexes for Industry | Apr 12-month ∆%: minus 2.0 Apr month ∆%: -0.2 |
| Consumer Price Index | Apr month ∆%: -0.3 Apr 12 months ∆%: 1.8 |
| Value Added of Industry | Apr month ∆%: 0.82 Jan-Apr 2014/Jan-Apr 2013 ∆%: 8.7 |
| GDP Growth Rate | Year IQ2014 ∆%: 7.4 |
| Investment in Fixed Assets | Total Jan-Apr 2013 ∆%: 17.3 Real estate development: 16.4 |
| Retail Sales | Apr month ∆%: 0.83 Jan-Apr ∆%: 12.0 |
| Trade Balance | Apr balance $18.45 billion Cumulative Jan-Apr: $35.19 billion |
Links to blog comments in Table CNY:
5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html
5/11/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/rules-discretionary-authorities-and.html
4/20/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/imf-view-world-inflation-waves-squeeze.html
VD Euro Area. Table VD-EUR provides yearly growth rates of the combined GDP of the members of the European Monetary Union (EMU) or euro area since 1996. Growth was very strong at 3.3 percent in 2006 and 3.0 percent in 2007. The global recession had strong impact with growth of only 0.4 percent in 2008 and decline of 4.4 percent in 2009. Recovery was at lower growth rates of 2.0 percent in 2010 and 1.6 percent in 2011. EUROSTAT estimates growth of GDP of the euro area of minus 0.7 percent in 2012 and minus 0.4 percent in 2013 but 1.1 percent in 2014 and 1.7 percent in 2015.
Table VD-EUR, Euro Area, Yearly Percentage Change of Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, Unemployment and GDP ∆%
| Year | HICP ∆% | Unemployment | GDP ∆% |
| 1999 | 1.2 | 9.6 | 2.9 |
| 2000 | 2.2 | 8.8 | 3.8 |
| 2001 | 2.4 | 8.2 | 2.0 |
| 2002 | 2.3 | 8.5 | 0.9 |
| 2003 | 2.1 | 9.0 | 0.7 |
| 2004 | 2.2 | 9.2 | 2.2 |
| 2005 | 2.2 | 9.1 | 1.7 |
| 2006 | 2.2 | 8.4 | 3.3 |
| 2007 | 2.2 | 7.5 | 3.0 |
| 2008 | 3.3 | 7.6 | 0.4 |
| 2009 | 0.3 | 9.6 | -4.5 |
| 2010 | 1.6 | 10.1 | 1.9 |
| 2011 | 2.7 | 10.1 | 1.6 |
| 2012 | 2.5 | 11.3 | -0.7 |
| 2013* | 1.3 | 12.0 | -0.4 |
| 2014* | 1.1 | ||
| 2015* | 1.7 |
*EUROSTAT forecast Source: EUROSTAT
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database
The GDP of the euro area in 2012 in current US dollars in the dataset of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is $12,199.1 billion or 16.9 percent of world GDP of $72,216.4 billion (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/02/weodata/index.aspx). The sum of the GDP of France $2613.9 billion with the GDP of Germany of $3429.5 billion, Italy of $2014.1 billion and Spain $1323.5 billion is $9381.0 billion or 76.9 percent of total euro area GDP and 13.0 percent of World GDP. The four largest economies account for slightly more than three quarters of economic activity of the euro area. Table VD-EUR1 is constructed with the dataset of EUROSTAT, providing growth rates of the euro area as a whole and of the largest four economies of Germany, France, Italy and Spain annually from 1996 to 2011 with the estimate of 2012 and forecasts for 2013, 2014 and 2015 by EUROSTAT. The impact of the global recession on the overall euro area economy and on the four largest economies was quite strong. There was sharp contraction in 2009 and growth rates have not rebounded to earlier growth with exception of Germany in 2010 and 2011.
Table VD-EUR1, Euro Area, Real GDP Growth Rate, ∆%
| Euro Area | Germany | France | Italy | Spain | |
| 2015* | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| 2014* | 1.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 2013* | -0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | -1.9 | -1.2 |
| 2012 | -0.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | -2.4 | -1.6 |
| 2011 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2010 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | -0.2 |
| 2009 | -4.5 | -5.1 | -3.1 | -5.5 | -3.8 |
| 2008 | 0.4 | 1.1 | -0.1 | -1.2 | 0.9 |
| 2007 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 3.5 |
| 2006 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 4.1 |
| 2005 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 3.6 |
| 2004 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 3.3 |
| 2003 | 0.7 | -0.4 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 3.1 |
| 2002 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 2.7 |
| 2001 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 3.7 |
| 2000 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 5.0 |
| 1999 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 4.7 |
| 1998 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 4.5 |
| 1997 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 3.9 |
| 1996 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 2.5 |
Source: EUROSTAT
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database
The Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index of the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI®, combining activity in manufacturing and services, decreased from 54.0 in Apr to 53.9 in May (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b1ef2c10fe5d406ab003ebab100f7e39). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds that the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI index suggests that the index is consistent with growth of GDP as high as 0.5 percent in IIQ2014 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b1ef2c10fe5d406ab003ebab100f7e39). The Markit Eurozone PMI® Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing activity with close association with GDP decreased from 54.0 in Apr, to 53.5 in May, which is close to the fastest in about three years (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/ee66d546cfb148bfa13b8331c0f337ac). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds growth of GDP at 0.4 to 0.5 percent in IIQ2014 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/ee66d546cfb148bfa13b8331c0f337ac). The Markit Eurozone Services Business Activity Index decreased from 53.1 in Apr to 53.2 in May (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/ee66d546cfb148bfa13b8331c0f337ac). The Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI® decreased to 52.2 in May from 53.4 in Apr (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/6a52f60530914812bb4fa9fdb053994c). New orders and export orders increased for the eleventh consecutive month. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds industrial growth in the euro area at a quarterly rate around 0.5 percent (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/6a52f60530914812bb4fa9fdb053994c). Table EUR provides the data table for the euro area.
Table EUR, Euro Area Economic Indicators
| GDP | IQ2014 ∆% 0.2; IQ2014/IVQ2013 ∆% 0.9 Blog 6/8/14 |
| Unemployment | Apr 2014: 11.7 % unemployment rate; Apr 2014: 18.751 million unemployed Blog 6/8/14 |
| HICP | Apr month ∆%: 0.2 12 months Apr ∆%: 0.7 |
| Producer Prices | Euro Zone industrial producer prices Apr ∆%: -0.1 |
| Industrial Production | Mar month ∆%: -0.3; Mar 12 months ∆%: -0.1 |
| Retail Sales | Apr month ∆%: 0.4 |
| Confidence and Economic Sentiment Indicator | Sentiment 102.7 May 2014 Consumer minus 7.1 May 2014 Blog 6/1/14 |
| Trade | Jan-Mar 2014/Jan-Mar 2013 Exports ∆%: 1.0 Mar 2014 12-month Exports ∆% -0.7 Imports ∆% 2.5 |
Links to blog comments in Table EUR:
6/1/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-instability-mediocre-cyclical.html
5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html
Table VD-1 provides percentage changes of euro area real GDP in a quarter relative to the prior quarter. Real GDP fell 0.2 percent in IVQ2011, fell 0.1 in IQ2012 and fell in the final three quarters of 2012: 0.3 percent in IIQ2012, 0.2 percent in IIIQ2012 and 0.5 percent in IVQ2012. GDP fell 0.2 percent in IQ2013 and increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2013. Growth slowed at 0.1 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2013. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent in IQ2014. The global recession manifested in the euro area in five consecutive quarterly declines from IIQ2008 to IIQ2009. The strongest impact was contraction of 2.9 percent in IQ2009. Recovery began in IIIQ2009 with cumulative growth of 4.1 percent to IQ2011 or at the annual equivalent rate of 2.3 percent. Growth was much more vigorous from IVQ2003 to IQ2008.
Table VD-1, Euro Area, Real GDP, Percentage Change from Prior Quarter, Calendar and Seasonally and Working Day Adjusted ∆%
| IQ | IIQ | IIIQ | IVQ | |
| 2014 | 0.2 | |||
| 2013 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| 2012 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.5 |
| 2011 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -0.2 |
| 2010 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| 2009 | -2.9 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| 2008 | 0.6 | -0.4 | -0.6 | -1.7 |
| 2007 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 2006 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| 2005 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| 2004 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 2003 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| 2002 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2001 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| 2000 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| 1999 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
Source: EUROSTAT
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database
Table VD-2 provides percentage change in real GDP in the euro area in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Growth rates were quite strong from 2004 to 2007. There were five consecutive quarters of sharp declines in GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier from IVQ2008 to IVQ2009 with sharp contractions of 5.5 percent in IQ2009, 5.4 percent in IIQ2009 and 4.4 percent in IIIQ2009. Growth rates decline in magnitude with 1.5 percent in IIIQ2011, 0.7 percent in IVQ211 and -0.2 percent in IQ2012 followed by contractions of 0.5 percent in IIQ2012, 0.7 percent in IIIQ2012 and 1.0 percent in IVQ2012. GDP contracted 1.1 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and contracted 0.6 percent in IIQ2013 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP contracted 0.3 percent in IIIQ2013 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.9 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier.
Table VD-2, Euro Area, Real GDP Percentage Change in a Quarter Relative to Same Quarter a
Year Earlier, Seasonally and Working Day Adjusted ∆%
| IQ | IIQ | IIIQ | IV | |
| 2014 | 0.9 | |||
| 2013 | -1.1 | -0.6 | -0.3 | 0.5 |
| 2012 | -0.2 | -0.5 | -0.7 | -1.0 |
| 2011 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 2010 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| 2009 | -5.5 | -5.4 | -4.4 | -2.3 |
| 2008 | 2.1 | 1.2 | -0.1 | -2.2 |
| 2007 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 |
| 2006 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.8 |
| 2005 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.2 |
| 2004 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| 2003 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.2 |
| 2002 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| 2001 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| 2000 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 3.3 |
| 1999 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 3.8 |
Source: EUROSTAT
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database
Table VD-3 provides growth of euro area real GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier not seasonally adjusted. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2013 NSA relative to a year earlier and increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.9 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.5 percent in IIQ2013 relative to a year earlier without seasonal adjustment and declined 1.8 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier without seasonal adjustment. Growth rates in 2006 and 2007 were quite strong followed by sharp declines of 5.7 percent in IQ2009, 5.9 percent in IIQ2009 and 4.2 percent in IQ2009.
Table VD-3, Euro Area, Real GDP Percentage Change in a Quarter Relative to Same Quarter a Year Earlier, Not Seasonally Adjusted ∆%
| IQ | IIQ | IIIQ | IV | |
| 2014 | 0.9 | |||
| 2013 | -1.8 | -0.5 | 0.1 | 0.5 |
| 2012 | 0.2 | -0.9 | -0.9 | -1.0 |
| 2011 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.2 |
| 2010 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| 2009 | -5.7 | -5.9 | -4.2 | -2.0 |
| 2008 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | -2.2 |
| 2007 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 2.4 |
| 2006 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 3.7 |
| 2005 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| 2004 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| 2003 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 1.2 |
| 2002 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| 2001 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| 2000 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 2.7 |
| 1999 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3.8 |
Source: EUROSTAT
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database
Table VD-4 provides GDP growth in IVQ2013 and relative to the same quarter a year earlier with SAWDA (seasonal and working day adjustment) and NSA (not seasonally adjusted) for the euro zone, European Union, Japan and the US. The GDP of the euro zone increased 0.2 percent in IQ2014 and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier SWDA and 0.9 percent NSA for IQ2014. The GDP of the European Union increased 0.3 percent in IQ2014, increased 1.4 percent SWDA in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier NSA in IQ2014. Growth in IQ2014 was weak worldwide with somewhat stronger performance by the US but still insufficient to reduce unemployment and underemployment (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-instability-mediocre-cyclical.html) and motivate hiring (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/rules-discretionary-authorities-and.html).
Table VD-4, Euro Zone, European Union, Japan and USA, Real GDP Growth
| ∆% IQ2014/ IVQ2013 SAWDA | ∆% IQ2014/ IQ2013 SWDA | ∆% IQ2014/ IQ2013 NSA | |
| Euro Zone | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| European Union | 0.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Germany | 0.8 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| France | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Netherlands | -1.4 | -0.5 | -0.5 |
| Finland | -0.4 | -0.8 | NA |
| Belgium | 0.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Portugal | -0.7 | 1.2 | NA |
| Ireland | NA | NA | NA |
| Italy | -0.1 | -0.5 | NA |
| Greece | NA | -1.1 | -1.1 |
| Spain | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| United Kingdom | 0.8 | 3.1 | 4.1 |
| Japan | 1.5 | NA | 3.0 |
| USA | -0.2 | 2.0 | NA |
*SAWDA: Seasonally and Working Day Adjusted except UK, Japan and USA
***NSA
Source: EUROSTAT
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/
EUROSTAT estimates the rate of unemployment in the euro area at 11.7 percent in Apr 2014, as shown in Table VD-5. The number of unemployed in Apr 2014 was 18.751 million, which was 0.487 million lower than 19.238 million in Apr 2013. The rate of unemployment stabilized from 12.0 percent in Apr 2013 to 11.7 percent in Apr 2014.
Table VD-5, Euro Area, Unemployment Rate and Number of Unemployed, % and Millions, SA
| Unemployment Rate % | Number Unemployed | |
| Apr 2014 | 11.7 | 18.751 |
| Mar | 11.8 | 18.827 |
| Feb | 11.8 | 18.858 |
| Jan | 11.8 | 18.908 |
| Dec 2013 | 11.8 | 18.919 |
| Nov | 11.9 | 19.057 |
| Oct | 11.9 | 19.072 |
| Sep | 12.0 | 19.201 |
| Aug | 12.0 | 19.185 |
| Jul | 12.0 | 19.184 |
| Jun | 12.0 | 19.197 |
| May | 12.0 | 19.231 |
| Apr | 12.0 | 19.238 |
| Mar | 12.0 | 19.198 |
| Feb | 12.0 | 19.188 |
| Jan | 12.0 | 19.153 |
| Dec 2012 | 11.8 | 18.946 |
| Nov | 11.7 | 18.813 |
| Oct | 11.7 | 18.701 |
| Sep | 11.5 | 18.446 |
| Aug | 11.4 | 18.283 |
| Jul | 11.4 | 18.232 |
| Jun | 11.3 | 18.143 |
| May | 11.2 | 17.937 |
| Apr | 11.1 | 17.786 |
| Mar | 11.0 | 17.507 |
| Feb | 10.8 | 17.275 |
| Jan | 10.7 | 17.053 |
| Dec 2011 | 10.6 | 16.941 |
| Nov | 10.6 | 16.826 |
| Oct | 10.4 | 16.547 |
| Sep | 10.3 | 16.375 |
| Aug | 10.1 | 16.130 |
| Jul | 10.1 | 15.970 |
| Jun | 9.9 | 15.750 |
| May | 9.9 | 15.680 |
| Apr | 9.8 | 15.528 |
| Mar | 9.9 | 15.612 |
| Feb | 9.9 | 15.638 |
| Jan | 9.9 | 15.723 |
| Dec 2010 | 10.0 | 15.854 |
Source: EUROSTAT
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database
Table VD-6 shows the disparity in rates of unemployment in the euro area with 11.7 percent for the region as a whole and 18.751 million unemployed but 5.2 percent in Germany and 2.225 million unemployed. At the other extreme is Spain with rate of unemployment of 25.1 percent and 5.721 million unemployed. The rate of unemployment of the European Union in Apr 2014 is 10.4 percent with 25.471 million unemployed.
Table VD-6, Unemployed and Unemployment Rate in Countries and Regions, Millions and %
| Apr 2014 | Unemployment Rate % | Unemployed Millions |
| Euro Zone | 11.7 | 18.751 |
| Germany | 5.2 | 2.225 |
| France | 10.4 | 3.038 |
| Netherlands | 7.2 | 0.636 |
| Finland | 8.5 | 0.227 |
| Portugal | 14.6 | 0.753 |
| Ireland | 11.9 | 0.256 |
| Italy | 12.6 | 3.216 |
| Greece | 26.5* | 1.300* |
| Spain | 25.1 | 5.721 |
| Belgium | 8.5 | 0.423 |
| European Union | 10.4 | 25.471 |
*Feb 2014
Source: EUROSTAT
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/
Chart VD-1 of EUROSTAT illustrates the wide difference in rates of unemployment in countries and regions.
Chart VD-1, Unemployment Rate in Various Countries and Regions
Source: EUROSTAT
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/ http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database
Advanced economies are experiencing weak demand. Table VD-7 provides month and 12-month percentage changes of the volume of retail sales in the euro zone from Jan 2011 to Apr 2014. Retail sales increased 0.4 percent in Apr 2014 and increased 2.4 percent in 12 months. The 12-month rates of growth became negative between Mar 2011 and Dec 2013 with exception of 0.5 percent in Apr 2011, 0.0 percent in Mar 2012 and 1.3 percent in Nov 2013. The lower part of Table VD-7 provides annual percentage changes of inflation-adjusted retail sales in the euro zone since 2001. Retail sales fell 0.6 percent in 2010 after falling 0.5 percent in 2009 and 1.8 percent in 2008 and fell again by 1.9 percent in 2011 and 2.6 percent in 2012. Retail sales fell 0.4 percent in 2013.
Table VD-7, Euro Zone, Volume of Retail Sales, Deflated ∆%
| Month ∆% | 12-Month CA ∆% | |
| Apr 2014 | 0.4 | 2.4 |
| Mar | 0.1 | 1.0 |
| Feb | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Jan | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Dec 2013 | -1.2 | -0.4 |
| Nov | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Oct | -0.4 | -0.5 |
| Sep | -0.9 | -0.2 |
| Aug | 0.6 | -0.4 |
| Jul | 0.6 | -0.9 |
| Jun | -0.8 | -1.6 |
| May | 1.2 | -0.2 |
| Apr | -0.2 | -1.4 |
| Mar | -0.2 | -2.4 |
| Feb | -0.3 | -2.2 |
| Jan | 0.3 | -2.1 |
| Dec 2012 | -0.1 | -2.6 |
| Nov | -0.1 | -1.9 |
| Oct | -0.3 | -3.1 |
| Sep | -1.5 | -1.8 |
| Aug | 0.4 | -0.7 |
| Jul | -0.2 | -1.4 |
| Jun | 0.3 | -0.9 |
| May | 0.6 | -0.6 |
| Apr | -1.6 | -3.4 |
| Mar | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Feb | -0.1 | -2.1 |
| Jan | -0.1 | -1.0 |
| Dec 2011 | 0.3 | -1.9 |
| Nov | -0.7 | -1.5 |
| Oct | 0.3 | -0.8 |
| Sep | -0.4 | -1.4 |
| Aug | 0.0 | -0.3 |
| Jul | 0.1 | -0.6 |
| Jun | 0.8 | -0.9 |
| May | -1.7 | -1.9 |
| Apr | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| Mar | -1.5 | -1.5 |
| Feb | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Jan | -0.1 | 0.6 |
| Dec ∆% | ||
| 2013 | -0.4 | |
| 2012 | -2.6 | |
| 2011 | -1.9 | |
| 2010 | -0.6 | |
| 2009 | -0.5 | |
| 2008 | -1.8 | |
| 2007 | -1.0 | |
| 2006 | 2.3 | |
| 2005 | 1.1 | |
| 2004 | 2.3 | |
| 2003 | 0.7 | |
| 2002 | -0.3 | |
| 2001 | 1.9 |
Source: EUROSTAT
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database
Growth rates of retail sales of the euro zone by major segments are in Table VD-8. Total sales increased 0.4 percent in Apr 2014 and increased 2.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014. Food sales increased 0.4 percent in Apr 2014 and 2.1 percent in 12 months and nonfood products decreased 0.1 percent in Apr and increased 2.6 percent in 12 months. Sales of automotive fuel stores increased 0.4 percent in Apr and increased 1.4 percent in 12 months.
Table VD-8, Euro Zone, Volume of Retail Sales by Products, ∆%
| Apr 2014 | Month ∆% | 12-Month ∆% |
| Total | 0.4 | 2.4 |
| Food, Drinks, Tobacco | 0.4 | 2.1 |
| Nonfood Products ex Automotive Fuel | -0.1 | 2.6 |
| Automotive Fuel in Specialized Stores | 0.4 | 1.4 |
Source: EUROSTAT
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database
Month and 12-month percentage rates of change of retail sales by member countries of the euro zone are shown in Table VD-9 for Apr 2014. Retail sales are mixed throughout the euro zone. The 12-month percentage changes are positive for some members in Table VD-9 such as 2.3 percent for France, 0.6 percent for Germany, 6.7 percent Ireland and 0.8 percent for Spain. The 12-month percentage change for the UK, which is not a member of the euro zone, was 8.4 percent. The European Union’s 12-month percentage change was 3.4 percent.
Table VD-9, Euro Zone, Volume of Retail Sales by Member Countries, ∆%
| Apr 2014 | Month ∆% | 12-Month ∆% |
| Euro Zone | 0.4 | 2.4 |
| Germany | -0.9 | 0.6 |
| France | 1.4 | 2.3 |
| Netherlands | -0.2* | 0.6* |
| Finland | 0.9 | 2.6 |
| Belgium | 0.3 | 3.7 |
| Portugal | -0.9 | -0.4 |
| Ireland | 1.1 | 6.7 |
| Italy | 0.0* | -0.3* |
| Greece | 1.0** | -0.8** |
| Spain | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| UK | 2.1 | 8.4 |
| European Union | 0.6 | 3.4 |
*Mar 2014 **Mar 2014
Source: EUROSTAT
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database
VE Germany. Table VE-DE provides yearly growth rates of the German economy from 1971 to 2013, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked. Germany’s GDP fell 5.1 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.1 percent in 2008. Recovery has been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.0 percent in 2010, 3.3 percent in 2011 and 0.7 percent in 2012. Growth decelerated to 0.4 percent in 2013.
The Federal Statistical Agency of Germany analyzes the fall and recovery of the German economy (http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Content/Statistics/VolkswirtschaftlicheGesamtrechnungen/Inlandsprodukt/Aktuell,templateId=renderPrint.psml):
“The German economy again grew strongly in 2011. The price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.0% compared with the previous year. Accordingly, the catching-up process of the German economy continued during the second year after the economic crisis. In the course of 2011, the price-adjusted GDP again exceeded its pre-crisis level. The economic recovery occurred mainly in the first half of 2011. In 2009, Germany experienced the most serious post-war recession, when GDP suffered a historic decline of 5.1%. The year 2010 was characterised by a rapid economic recovery (+3.7%).”
Table VE-DE, Germany, GDP ∆% on Prior Year
| Price Adjusted Chain-Linked | Price- and Calendar-Adjusted Chain Linked | |
| 2013 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| 2012 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| 2011 | 3.3 | 3.4 |
| 2010 | 4.0 | 3.8 |
| 2009 | -5.1 | -5.1 |
| 2008 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 2007 | 3.3 | 3.4 |
| 2006 | 3.7 | 3.9 |
| 2005 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| 2004 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 2003 | -0.4 | -0.4 |
| 2002 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2001 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| 2000 | 3.1 | 3.3 |
| 1999 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| 1998 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| 1997 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| 1996 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 1995 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| 1994 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| 1993 | -1.0 | -1.0 |
| 1992 | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| 1991 | 5.1 | 5.2 |
| 1990 | 5.3 | 5.5 |
| 1989 | 3.9 | 4.0 |
| 1988 | 3.7 | 3.4 |
| 1987 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| 1986 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1985 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1984 | 2.8 | 2.9 |
| 1983 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| 1982 | -0.4 | -0.5 |
| 1981 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| 1980 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| 1979 | 4.2 | 4.3 |
| 1978 | 3.0 | 3.1 |
| 1977 | 3.3 | 3.5 |
| 1976 | 4.9 | 4.5 |
| 1975 | -0.9 | -0.9 |
| 1974 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| 1973 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| 1972 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| 1971 | 3.1 | 3.0 |
| 1970 | NA | NA |
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/02/PE14_048_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/08/PE13_278_811.html https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/11/PE13_381_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/01/PE14_016_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/05/PE14_167_811.html
The Flash Germany Composite Output Index of the Markit Flash Germany PMI®, combining manufacturing and services, was unchanged from 56.1 in Apr to 56.1 in May. The index of manufacturing output reached 55.3 in May, decreasing from 58.8 in Apr, while the index of services increased to 56.4 in May from 54.7 in Apr. The overall Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI® decreased from 54.1 in Apr to 52.9 in May (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/38439f40599a481591f420a71f97a9d1). New export work volumes increased for a tenth consecutive month with business originating in the US, Europe and Asia. Oliver Kolodseike, Economist at Markit, finds continuing expansion of Germany’s private sector with strength in new orders and activity (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/38439f40599a481591f420a71f97a9d1). The Markit Germany Composite Output Index of the Markit Germany Services PMI®, combining manufacturing and services with close association with Germany’s GDP, decreased from 56.1 in Apr to 55.6 in May (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/ff8d9f0c27f540ceb7dfc0610cdbbeb5). Oliver Kolodseike, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds prospects of strength of GDP in IIQ2014 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/ff8d9f0c27f540ceb7dfc0610cdbbeb5). The Germany Services Business Activity Index increased from 54.7 in Apr to 56.0 in May (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/ff8d9f0c27f540ceb7dfc0610cdbbeb5). The Markit/BME Germany Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®), showing close association with Germany’s manufacturing conditions, decreased from 54.1 in Apr to 52.3 in May (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/faaf6eca88b84acb9c22661b96aac0b6). New export orders increased for the tenth consecutive month. Oliver Kolodseike, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds manufacturing average PMI in IIQ2014 still growing at the second fastest pace in about three years (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/faaf6eca88b84acb9c22661b96aac0b6).Table DE provides the country data table for Germany.
Table DE, Germany, Economic Indicators
| GDP | IQ2014 0.8 ∆%; I/Q2014/IQ2013 ∆% 2.5 2013/2012: 0.4% GDP ∆% 1970-2013 Blog 8/26/12 5/27/12 11/25/12 2/24/13 5/19/13 5/26/13 8/18/13 8/25/13 11/17/13 11/24/13 1/26/14 2/16/14 3/2/14 5/18/14 5/25/14 |
| Consumer Price Index | Apr month NSA ∆%: -0.2 |
| Producer Price Index | Apr month ∆%: -0.1 CSA, minus 0.1 |
| Industrial Production | MFG Apr month CSA ∆%: 0.2 |
| Machine Orders | MFG Apr month ∆%: 3.1 |
| Retail Sales | Apr Month ∆% -0.9 12-Month ∆% 3.4 Blog 6/1/14 |
| Employment Report | Unemployment Rate SA Apr 5.2% |
| Trade Balance | Exports Apr 12-month NSA ∆%: -0.2 Blog 6/8/14 |
Links to blog comments in Table DE:
6/1/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-instability-mediocre-cyclical.html
5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html
5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html
3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html
2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html
1/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/01/capital-flows-exchange-rates-and.html
11/24/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html
11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html
8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html
8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html
There is significantly stronger performance of production in Germany with wide monthly fluctuations. The production industries index of Germany in Table VE-1 shows increase of 0.3 percent in Dec 2012 and decrease of 9.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2012. The index decreased 0.7 percent in Jan 2013 and 1.3 percent in 12 months and increased 0.8 percent in Feb 2013, declining 4.9 percent in 12 months. In Mar 2013, the production index of Germany increased 1.1 percent and fell 8.5 percent in 12 months. The production index jumped 1.1 percent in Apr 2013 and 7.5 percent in 12 months. In May 2013, the production index fell 1.7 percent and 4.4 percent in 12 months. The production index of Germany increased 2.0 percent in Jun 2013 and fell 0.4 percent in 12 months. In Jul 2013, the production industries index fell 0.8 percent and increased 1.9 percent in 12 months. The production industries index increased 1.3 percent in Aug 2013 and fell 2.8 percent in 12 months. In Sep 2013, the production index fell 0.5 percent and increased 4.2 percent in 12 months. In Oct 2013, the production index of Germany fell 0.7 percent and increased 1.3 percent in 12 months. The index of production industries increased 1.8 percent in Nov 2013 and 0.4 percent in 12 months. The index of production industries increased 0.1 percent in Dec 2013 and increased 5.9 percent in 12 months. The production industries index increased 0.5 percent in Jan 2014 and 3.4 percent in 12 months. In Feb 2014, the production industries index increased 0.5 percent and 6.1 percent in 12 months. The production industries index fell 0.6 percent in Mar 2014 and increased 4.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The production industries index of Germany increased 0.2 percent in Apr 2014 and fell 1.5 percent in 12 months. Germany’s production industries suffered decline of 7.3 percent in Dec 2008 relative to Dec 2007 and decline of 2.3 percent in 2009. Recovery was vigorous with 17.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2010. The first quarter of 2011 was quite strong when the German economy outperformed the other advanced economies. The performance of Germany’s production industries from 2002 to 2006 was vigorous with average rate of 4.5 percent. Data for the production industries index of Germany fluctuate sharply from month to month and in 12-month rates.
Table VE-1, Germany, Production Industries, Month and 12-Month ∆%
| 12-Month ∆% NSA | Month ∆% Calendar SA | |
| Apr 2014 | -1.5 | 0.2 |
| Mar | 4.8 | -0.6 |
| Feb | 6.1 | 0.5 |
| Jan | 3.4 | 0.5 |
| Dec 2013 | 5.9 | 0.1 |
| Nov | 0.4 | 1.8 |
| Oct | 1.3 | -0.7 |
| Sep | 4.2 | -0.5 |
| Aug | -2.8 | 1.3 |
| Jul | 1.9 | -0.8 |
| Jun | -0.4 | 2.0 |
| May | -4.4 | -1.7 |
| Apr | 7.5 | 1.1 |
| Mar | -8.5 | 1.1 |
| Feb | -4.9 | 0.8 |
| Jan | -1.3 | -0.7 |
| Dec 2012 | -9.4 | 0.3 |
| Nov | -2.9 | -0.7 |
| Oct | 4.1 | -1.3 |
| Sep | -6.7 | -1.0 |
| Aug | -0.6 | -0.5 |
| Jul | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| Jun | 4.2 | -0.9 |
| May | -6.3 | 1.1 |
| Apr | -0.6 | -1.9 |
| Mar | -0.1 | 2.3 |
| Feb | 2.4 | -0.5 |
| Jan | 4.8 | 0.8 |
| Dec 2011 | 2.0 | -1.6 |
| Nov | 3.9 | -0.4 |
| Oct | 0.1 | 1.3 |
| Sep | 4.5 | -1.6 |
| Aug | 10.2 | -0.9 |
| Jul | 5.8 | 3.2 |
| Jun | -0.8 | -1.5 |
| May | 18.2 | 0.5 |
| Apr | 5.3 | 0.3 |
| Mar | 9.8 | 0.6 |
| Feb | 15.8 | 1.1 |
| Jan | 15.1 | 1.2 |
| Dec 2010 | 17.1 | |
| Dec 2009 | -2.3 | |
| Dec 2008 | -7.3 | |
| Dec 2007 | -0.1 | |
| Dec 2006 | 2.5 | |
| Dec 2005 | 4.9 | |
| Dec 2004 | 5.3 | |
| Dec 2003 | 5.1 | |
| Dec 2002 | 2.0 | |
| Dec 2001 | -8.8 | |
| Dec 2000 | 0.2 | |
| Dec 1999 | 6.4 | |
| Average ∆% per Year | ||
| Dec 1995 to Dec 2013 | 1.5 | |
| Dec 1995 to Dec 2000 | 2.7 | |
| Dec 1995 to Dec 2006 | 2.2 | |
| Dec 2002 to Dec 2006 | 4.5 |
Source: Statistiche Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)
https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html
Table VE-2 provides monthly percentage changes of the German production industries index by components from Sep 2013 to Apr 2014. The index increased 0.2 percent in Apr 2014 with decreases of 0.4 percent in capital goods and 1.5 percent in durable goods. There were increases of 0.2 percent in manufacturing and 0.1 percent in intermediate goods. The index increased 1.8 percent in Nov 2013 with increases in all segments except decline of 1.6 percent in energy. The index fell 0.7 percent in Oct 2013 with all segments declining with exception of 0.8 percent for intermediate goods and 0.8 percent for nondurable goods.
Table VE-2, Germany, Production Industries, Industry and Components, Month ∆%
| Apr 2014 | Mar 2014 | Feb | Jan | Dec 2013 | Nov | Oct | Sep | |
| Production | 0.2 | -0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.8 | -0.7 | -0.5 |
| Industry | 0.1 | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 2.2 | -0.6 | -0.7 |
| Mfg | 0.2 | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 2.2 | -0.6 | -0.7 |
| Intermediate Goods | 0.1 | -0.6 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Capital | -0.3 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | -0.7 | 4.0 | -1.9 | -2.0 |
| Durable Goods | -1.5 | 1.0 | 2.7 | -1.4 | 0.4 | 2.7 | -3.9 | 2.0 |
| Nondurable Goods | 1.7 | 0.5 | -0.5 | -0.5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.8 | -0.6 |
| Energy | 2.7 | -1.1 | -1.3 | 0.9 | -2.3 | -1.6 | -1.8 | 1.9 |
Seasonally Calendar Adjusted
Source: Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)
https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html
Table VE-3 provides 12-month unadjusted percentage changes of industry and components in Germany. There were percentage declines of 12-month rates in the production index of Germany and all segments in the four months from Dec 2012 to Mar 2013 with exception of nondurables in Jan 2013 and energy in Jan and Mar 2013. There is sharp recovery in Apr 2013 with growth of manufacturing by 7.9 percent and capital goods by 11.1 percent. All segments show declines in 12 months in May 2013. There are increases in the 12 months ending in Jun of 1.2 percent in capital goods and 2.8 percent in durable goods. All segments increased in Jul 2013. All segments fell in Aug 2013 with sharp declines. There is strong recovery in Sep with high rates of increase. Many segments increased in the 12 months ending in Oct 2013 with 1.7 percent growth in manufacturing and 2.0 percent in capital goods. Most segments increased in Nov 2013 with 1.1 percent in manufacturing and 1.9 percent in capital goods. All segments increased in Dec 2013 with exception of energy. Most segments increased in Jan 2014 with exception of declines for durable goods and energy. All segments increased in Feb 2014 with exception of energy. All segments increased in Mar 2014 with exception of energy. All segments decreased in Apr 2014 with exception of intermediate goods and nondurable goods. Percentage declines in 12 months are quite sharp in Dec 2012 with many percentage changes negative around two-digits. Although there are sharp fluctuations in the data, there is suggestion of deceleration that would be expected from much higher earlier rates. The deceleration is quite evident in single-digit percentage changes from Sep 2011 to Dec 2012 relative to high double-digit percentage changes in Jan-Mar 2011. There are multiple negative 12-month percentage changes across many segments. Growth rates in the recovery from the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009 were initially very vigorous in comparison with the growth rates before the contraction that are shown in the bottom part of Table VE-3.
Table VE-3, Germany, Industry and Components, 12-Month ∆% Unadjusted
| IND | MFG | INTG | CG | DG | NDG | EN | |
| 2014 | |||||||
| Apr | -1.3 | -1.1 | 0.7 | -3.6 | -3.4 | 1.8 | -3.8 |
| Mar | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 4.8 | -9.0 |
| Feb | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 4.5 | -2.8 |
| Jan | 3.5 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 5.5 | -1.3 | 1.2 | -2.2 |
| 2013 | |||||||
| Dec | 6.2 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 4.2 | -0.1 |
| Nov | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 1.9 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -1.6 |
| Oct | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.0 | -0.4 | 0.0 | -0.3 |
| Sep | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| Aug | -2.9 | -3.0 | -4.0 | -1.8 | -7.5 | -2.4 | -3.1 |
| Jul | 1.6 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 0.7 |
| Jun | -0.1 | 0.0 | -1.6 | 1.2 | 2.8 | -1.1 | -1.6 |
| May | -4.5 | -4.4 | -3.6 | -5.9 | -10.2 | -0.9 | -4.6 |
| Apr | 8.1 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 11.1 | 9.3 | 8.9 | 0.4 |
| Mar | -8.4 | -8.3 | -7.3 | -9.6 | -9.0 | -7.0 | 2.4 |
| Feb | -5.1 | -5.2 | -5.7 | -5.4 | -6.1 | -2.3 | -8.9 |
| Jan | -1.2 | -1.1 | -1.3 | -2.7 | -2.8 | 3.8 | 0.1 |
| 2012 | |||||||
| Dec | -9.6 | -9.4 | -11.8 | -8.5 | -12.5 | -7.0 | -2.4 |
| Nov | -3.1 | -3.1 | -3.9 | -2.7 | -7.6 | -1.2 | 0.7 |
| Oct | 3.9 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 7.0 | 3.2 |
| Sep | -7.6 | -7.5 | -8.8 | -7.1 | -11.2 | -5.2 | 4.0 |
| Aug | -1.1 | -1.0 | -3.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 4.5 |
| Jul | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 4.6 | -2.4 | -0.7 | 2.2 |
| Jun | 3.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 0.3 | 6.7 |
| May | -7.0 | -6.8 | -7.5 | -6.1 | -10.6 | -7.7 | 4.0 |
| Apr | -1.1 | -1.1 | -2.0 | 1.9 | -5.3 | -5.9 | 3.7 |
| Mar | -0.5 | -0.4 | -3.1 | 2.8 | -6.2 | -2.3 | -0.8 |
| Feb | 3.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 7.3 | -0.1 | -2.3 | 5.9 |
| Jan | 5.6 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 10.4 | 4.7 | 0.1 | -3.3 |
| 2011 | |||||||
| Dec | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 1.4 | -9.2 |
| Nov | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 8.1 | 2.3 | -1.0 | -5.8 |
| Oct | 0.6 | 0.7 | -0.3 | 3.2 | -2.3 | -3.4 | -6.1 |
| Sep | 5.7 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 9.2 | 3.4 | -0.8 | -6.1 |
| Aug | 12.4 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 20.4 | 4.8 | 1.4 | -3.0 |
| Jul | 7.9 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 13.7 | 6.8 | 0.1 | -5.7 |
| Jun | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 2.3 | -10.2 | -2.1 | -4.7 |
| May | 21.5 | 21.2 | 17.9 | 28.3 | 20.8 | 12.8 | -7.3 |
| Apr | 7.5 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 11.1 | 4.6 | 1.6 | -5.5 |
| Mar | 11.2 | 11.2 | 10.8 | 15.0 | 8.6 | 2.0 | 2.8 |
| Feb | 17.3 | 17.1 | 16.3 | 23.1 | 10.1 | 6.3 | -0.4 |
| Jan | 17.2 | 16.9 | 17.5 | 23.1 | 9.9 | 3.6 | -2.6 |
| 2010 | |||||||
| Dec | 17.6 | 17.6 | 14.8 | 25.9 | 8.5 | 1.7 | 2.6 |
| Nov | 13.9 | 13.9 | 12.9 | 19.2 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 3.5 |
| Oct | 9.9 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 14.0 | 6.3 | 0.8 | 2.5 |
| Sep | 9.8 | 9.5 | 12.2 | 10.1 | 8.3 | 2.6 | 2.1 |
| Aug | 16.9 | 17.0 | 19.3 | 19.9 | 18.3 | 6.9 | 1.3 |
| Jul | 9.0 | 8.9 | 13.2 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| Jun | 16.4 | 16.2 | 20.8 | 16.1 | 19.7 | 5.1 | -2.8 |
| May | 13.1 | 13.3 | 20.0 | 12.0 | 11.2 | 1.4 | 11.1 |
| Apr | 14.9 | 14.9 | 21.7 | 15.5 | 8.8 | 0.2 | 9.4 |
| Mar | 14.3 | 14.5 | 20.4 | 12.3 | 11.8 | 5.8 | 4.2 |
| Feb | 6.8 | 7.4 | 10.6 | 6.5 | 7.9 | -1.0 | 3.7 |
| Jan | 0.4 | 0.9 | 6.3 | -3.8 | 0.8 | -3.0 | 0.8 |
| Dec 2010 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 14.8 | 25.9 | 8.5 | 1.7 | 2.6 |
| Dec 2009 | -3.2 | -3.1 | 3.3 | -9.9 | -0.1 | 1.1 | 3.7 |
| Dec 2008 | -7.6 | -7.4 | -14.3 | -5.4 | -11.2 | 3.7 | -9.0 |
| Dec 2007 | 0.0 | -0.3 | -0.6 | 2.5 | -10.0 | -2.7 | 1.6 |
| Dec 2006 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 8.6 | -0.9 | -5.3 |
| Dec 2005 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| Dec 2004 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 5.7 | 9.6 |
| Dec 2003 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 4.4 | 0.3 |
| Dec 2002 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 5.4 | 3.4 | -5.9 | 2.3 | -2.6 |
Note: IND: Industry; MFG: Manufacturing; INTG: Intermediate Goods; CG: Capital Goods; DG: Durable Goods; NDG: Nondurable Goods; EN: Energy
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis
https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html
Broader perspective since 2005 is provided by Chart VE-1 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland, Federal Statistical Agency of Germany. The index of production industries not seasonally adjusted rises by more than one third between 2003 and 2008 with sharp fluctuations and then collapses during the global recession in 2008. Recovery has been in a steep upward trajectory that has recovered at the more recent peaks the losses during the contraction. Recovery stalled recently.
Chart VE-1, Germany, Production Industries, Not Adjusted, 2010=100
Source: Statistiche Bundesamt Deutschland
https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html
More detail is provided by Chart VE-2 of the Statistiche Bundesamt Deutschland, or Federal Statistical Agency of Germany, with the unadjusted production industries index and trend from 2010 to 2014. There could be some flattening in recent months probably leading into stagnation, mild downturn and recent recovery as depicted by trend.
Chart VE-2, Germany, Production Industries, Not Adjusted, 2010=100
Source: Statistiche Bundesamt Deutschland
https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html
Table VE-4 provides month and 12-month rates of growth of manufacturing in Germany from Dec 2010 to Apr 2014. There are fluctuations in both monthly rates and in the past 12 months. In Jan 2013, manufacturing fell 1.1 percent and decreased 1.1 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing increased 1.0 percent in Feb 2013, declining 5.2 percent in 12 months. In Mar 2013, manufacturing increased 1.1 percent but fell 8.3 percent in 12 months. There is strong recovery in Apr 2013 with growth of 0.7 percent and 7.9 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 1.5 percent in May 2013 and declined 4.4 percent in 12 months. Recovery is strong in Jun 2013 with growth of 2.0 percent in the month but change of 0.0 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 1.4 percent in Jul 2013 and increased 1.6 percent in 12 months. In Aug 2013, manufacturing increased 1.9 percent and fell 3.0 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 0.7 percent in Sep 2013 and increased 4.6 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing increased 2.2 percent in Nov 2013 and 1.1 percent in 12 months. In Dec 2013, manufacturing increased 0.2 percent and increased 6.1 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing increased 0.1 percent in Jan 2014 and 3.4 percent in 12 months. In Feb 2014, manufacturing increased 0.5 percent and 6.0 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 0.3 percent in Mar 2014 and increased 5.3 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing increased 0.2 percent in Apr 2014 and fell 1.1 percent in 12 months.
Table VE-4, Germany, Manufacturing Month and 12-Month ∆%
| 12-Month ∆% NSA | Month ∆% SA and Calendar Adjusted | |
| Apr 2014 | -1.1 | 0.2 |
| Mar | 5.3 | -0.3 |
| Feb | 6.0 | 0.5 |
| Jan | 3.4 | 0.1 |
| Dec 2013 | 6.1 | 0.2 |
| Nov | 1.1 | 2.2 |
| Oct | 1.7 | -0.6 |
| Sep | 4.6 | -0.7 |
| Aug | -3.0 | 1.9 |
| Jul | 1.6 | -1.4 |
| Jun | 0.0 | 2.0 |
| May | -4.4 | -1.5 |
| Apr | 7.9 | 0.7 |
| Mar | -8.3 | 1.0 |
| Feb | -5.2 | 1.0 |
| Jan | -1.1 | -1.1 |
| Dec 2012 | -9.4 | 1.0 |
| Nov | -3.1 | -0.7 |
| Oct | 3.8 | -1.3 |
| Sep | -7.5 | -1.4 |
| Aug | -1.0 | -0.5 |
| Jul | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Jun | 3.7 | -1.3 |
| May | -6.8 | 1.6 |
| Apr | -1.1 | -1.7 |
| Mar | -0.4 | 1.0 |
| Feb | 3.3 | 0.3 |
| Jan | 5.6 | 0.7 |
| Dec 2011 | 1.4 | -1.5 |
| Nov | 4.5 | -0.8 |
| Oct | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Sep | 5.7 | -1.7 |
| Aug | 12.2 | -0.9 |
| Jul | 7.8 | 3.5 |
| Jun | 0.5 | -1.7 |
| May | 21.2 | 0.8 |
| Apr | 7.5 | 0.7 |
| Mar | 11.2 | 0.7 |
| Feb | 17.1 | 1.4 |
| Jan | 16.9 | -0.1 |
| Dec 2010 | 17.6 | 1.4 |
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)
https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html
Chart VE-3 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland, or Federal Statistical Office of Germany, provides the manufacturing index of Germany from 2010 to 2014. Manufacturing was already flattening in 2007 and fell sharply in 2008 to the beginning of 2010. Manufacturing grew sharply in the initial phase of recovery but has flattened in recent months as revealed by the trend that may be turning upward.
Chart VE-3, Germany, Production Index, Manufacturing, Not Adjusted Index and Trend, 2010=100
Source: Statistiche Bundesamt Deutschland https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html
Table VE-5 provides month and 12-month rates of growth of new orders of manufacturing in Germany from Jan 2010 to Mar 2014. There are fluctuations in both monthly rates and in the past 12 months. Table VE-5 reveals strong fluctuations in an evident deceleration of total orders for industry of Germany with recent improvement. Total orders for manufacturing increased 3.1 percent in Apr 2014 and increased 3.4 percent in 12 months. There is the same behavior for total, foreign and domestic orders with decline in 12-month rates from two-digit levels to single digits and negative changes. An important aspect of Germany is that the bulk of orders is domestic or from other European countries while foreign orders have been growing rapidly. There is weakening world trade affecting export economies. As in other countries, data on orders for manufacturing are highly volatile. Most 12-month percentage changes from Jan 2012 to Sep 2012 in Table VE-5 are negative largely because of the unusual strength of the Germany economy in the beginning of 2011 but more recently because of slowing world economy in 2012-2014.
Table VE-5, Germany, Volume of Orders Received in Manufacturing, Total, Domestic and Foreign, ∆%
| Total | Total | Foreign 12 M | Foreign M | Home | Home | |
| 2014 | ||||||
| Apr | 3.4 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 0.0 |
| Mar | 3.2 | -2.8 | 2.5 | -4.5 | 4.2 | -0.6 |
| Feb | 7.6 | 0.9 | 9.3 | 0.7 | 5.6 | 1.2 |
| Jan | 5.8 | 0.1 | 8.2 | -1.3 | 2.9 | 2.0 |
| 2013 | ||||||
| Dec | 8.4 | 0.1 | 10.7 | 1.8 | 5.0 | -2.2 |
| Nov | 4.5 | 0.7 | 6.0 | -0.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Oct | 3.7 | -0.3 | 4.1 | 0.1 | 3.1 | -0.9 |
| Sep | 11.2 | 3.1 | 13.7 | 6.2 | 8.0 | -0.7 |
| Aug | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.9 | -1.6 | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Jul | 5.1 | -2.1 | 5.5 | -3.8 | 4.8 | 0.2 |
| Jun | 4.8 | 4.8 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 0.7 | 3.7 |
| May | -3.6 | -1.0 | -1.6 | -0.2 | -6.2 | -2.0 |
| Apr | 5.9 | -1.7 | 7.6 | -1.0 | 3.6 | -2.5 |
| Mar | -5.6 | 1.9 | -4.4 | 2.2 | -7.2 | 1.5 |
| Feb | -2.7 | 1.7 | -1.5 | 1.9 | -4.2 | 1.3 |
| Jan | 0.3 | -1.0 | 1.9 | -2.2 | -1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2012 | ||||||
| Dec | -9.1 | 1.5 | -6.7 | 2.0 | -12.6 | 0.8 |
| Nov | -0.9 | -2.9 | 2.4 | -4.8 | -5.1 | -0.4 |
| Oct | 4.5 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| Sep | -8.9 | -2.1 | -6.6 | -3.1 | -11.7 | -0.7 |
| Aug | -4.4 | -0.8 | -2.1 | -0.2 | -7.1 | -1.7 |
| Jul | -1.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.1 | -4.2 | 0.6 |
| Jun | -4.5 | -2.2 | -6.4 | -2.3 | -1.7 | -2.2 |
| May | -11.0 | 0.7 | -3.7 | 2.0 | -18.8 | -1.0 |
| Apr | -3.9 | -1.7 | -4.4 | -2.8 | -3.1 | -0.3 |
| Mar | -2.2 | 2.3 | -1.2 | 3.2 | -3.3 | 1.3 |
| Feb | -4.3 | 0.6 | -4.7 | 1.8 | -3.8 | -0.8 |
| Jan | -2.6 | -2.2 | -4.6 | -3.7 | -0.2 | -0.5 |
| 2011 | ||||||
| Dec | 0.0 | 2.6 | -0.3 | 4.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| Nov | -4.8 | -3.0 | -8.2 | -5.1 | -0.3 | -0.5 |
| Oct | 0.1 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 3.2 | -2.1 | 0.0 |
| Sep | 2.2 | -3.4 | 1.9 | -4.2 | 2.6 | -2.3 |
| Aug | 7.1 | -0.7 | 5.2 | 0.4 | 9.4 | -2.1 |
| Jul | 4.9 | -2.0 | 4.6 | -5.9 | 5.4 | 3.2 |
| Jun | 3.5 | -0.6 | 7.8 | 8.6 | -2.0 | -10.8 |
| May | 23.1 | 2.6 | 16.0 | -3.9 | 31.8 | 11.0 |
| Apr | 6.7 | 1.9 | 9.6 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| Mar | 9.8 | -3.2 | 12.3 | -3.2 | 6.9 | -3.1 |
| Feb | 21.5 | 1.1 | 24.1 | 0.6 | 18.4 | 1.7 |
| Jan | 22.5 | 3.6 | 26.1 | 3.4 | 18.2 | 3.9 |
| 2010 | ||||||
| Dec | 21.8 | -2.5 | 26.8 | -3.7 | 15.4 | -0.9 |
| Nov | 21.4 | 5.3 | 27.1 | 8.5 | 15.0 | 1.3 |
| Oct | 14.2 | 0.7 | 18.2 | 0.3 | 10.0 | 1.2 |
| Sep | 13.9 | -1.3 | 15.6 | -3.2 | 11.9 | 1.3 |
| Aug | 22.2 | 2.3 | 29.7 | 4.3 | 14.5 | -0.1 |
| Jul | 14.1 | -0.6 | 21.4 | -0.6 | 6.4 | -0.6 |
| Jun | 27.6 | 2.5 | 30.6 | 3.3 | 24.2 | 1.6 |
| May | 24.8 | -0.2 | 29.6 | 0.6 | 19.4 | -1.2 |
| Apr | 29.9 | 3.0 | 34.0 | 3.1 | 25.7 | 3.0 |
| Mar | 29.4 | 5.0 | 32.9 | 5.1 | 25.8 | 5.0 |
| Feb | 24.0 | 0.1 | 28.7 | 0.8 | 18.6 | -0.7 |
| Jan | 17.0 | 3.8 | 23.8 | 4.2 | 9.8 | 3.2 |
| Dec 2009 | 9.1 | -1.7 | 10.5 | -2.6 | 7.3 | -0.5 |
| Dec 2008 | -28.3 | -6.7 | -31.5 | -9.5 | -23.7 | -2.9 |
| Dec 2007 | 7.1 | -0.9 | 9.1 | -2.0 | 4.4 | 0.2 |
| Dec 2006 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| Dec 2005 | 5.0 | -0.5 | 10.4 | -1.1 | -1.4 | 0.3 |
| Dec 2004 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 12.7 | 4.9 |
| Dec 2003 | 10.7 | 2.4 | 16.4 | 5.4 | 5.1 | -0.8 |
| Dec 2002 | -0.2 | -3.4 | -0.8 | -6.6 | 0.2 | -0.3 |
| Average ∆% 2003-2007 | 7.6 | 10.4 | 4.5 | |||
| Average ∆% 2003-2012 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 0.3 |
Notes: AE: Annual Equivalent; M: Month; M: Calendar and seasonally adjusted; 12 M: Non-adjusted Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland
https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html
Orders for capital goods of Germany are shown in Table VE-6. Total capital goods orders increased 4.4 percent in Apr 2014 and increased 5.4 percent in 12 months. Domestic orders decreased 0.4 percent in Apr and foreign orders increased 7.3 percent. There has been deceleration from 2010 and early 2011 with growth rates falling from two digit levels to single digits, and multiple negative changes with recent improvement. An important aspect of Germany’s economy shown in Tables VE-5 and VE-6 is the success in increasing the competitiveness of its economic activities as shown by rapid growth of orders for industry after the recession of 2001 in the period before the global recession beginning in late 2007. Germany adopted fiscal and labor market reforms to increase productivity.
Table VE-6, Germany, Volume of Orders Received of Capital Goods Industries, Total, Foreign and Domestic, ∆%
| Total 12 M | Total M | Foreign 12 M | Foreign M | Domestic 12 M | Domestic M | |
| 2014 | ||||||
| Apr | 5.4 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 2.7 | -0.4 |
| Mar | 3.2 | -3.3 | 1.2 | -5.8 | 6.5 | 1.0 |
| Feb | 7.4 | 0.6 | 9.0 | 0.1 | 4.7 | 1.7 |
| Jan | 7.0 | -1.0 | 9.4 | -3.3 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
| 2013 | ||||||
| Dec | 10.7 | 1.2 | 14.8 | 4.7 | 3.2 | -4.8 |
| Nov | 6.8 | 2.2 | 7.4 | 1.2 | 5.3 | 4.0 |
| Oct | 2.7 | -2.8 | 2.1 | -3.3 | 3.3 | -2.1 |
| Sep | 14.6 | 4.4 | 17.1 | 8.3 | 10.3 | -2.0 |
| Aug | 3.1 | 0.0 | 1.5 | -2.0 | 5.7 | 3.4 |
| Jul | 6.3 | -4.4 | 7.3 | -6.3 | 5.0 | -0.7 |
| Jun | 9.1 | 8.4 | 13.5 | 9.3 | 1.8 | 7.0 |
| May | -3.1 | -1.1 | -0.4 | 0.5 | -7.8 | -3.9 |
| Apr | 6.0 | -2.0 | 7.3 | -2.1 | 3.7 | -1.9 |
| Mar | -5.9 | 1.1 | -4.4 | 1.7 | -8.2 | -0.1 |
| Feb | 0.1 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.6 | -4.0 | 2.9 |
| Jan | 3.1 | -0.9 | 5.8 | -1.4 | -1.4 | -0.4 |
| 2012 | ||||||
| Dec | -7.7 | 2.3 | -4.6 | 2.3 | -13.3 | 2.6 |
| Nov | -0.7 | -4.3 | 3.1 | -6.2 | -6.5 | -1.1 |
| Oct | 4.6 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| Sep | -7.5 | -1.3 | -4.8 | -2.1 | -11.6 | -0.1 |
| Aug | -4.6 | -2.1 | -2.6 | -1.1 | -7.4 | -3.7 |
| Jul | -0.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | -2.7 | 0.5 |
| Jun | -7.1 | -2.5 | -9.9 | -2.8 | -1.9 | -1.8 |
| May | -12.0 | 0.7 | -2.8 | 1.7 | -23.9 | -0.8 |
| Apr | -3.3 | -3.3 | -4.2 | -4.3 | -1.7 | -1.5 |
| Mar | 2.2 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 7.3 | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| Feb | -5.9 | 1.7 | -7.0 | 2.2 | -4.2 | 1.1 |
| Jan | -3.7 | -4.2 | -6.5 | -4.8 | 1.0 | -3.2 |
| 2011 | ||||||
| Dec | 1.2 | 3.0 | -0.1 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| Nov | -6.5 | -4.0 | -10.5 | -7.2 | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Oct | 3.1 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 6.1 | -2.0 | -0.3 |
| Sep | 2.9 | -3.8 | 2.2 | -4.8 | 4.0 | -1.9 |
| Aug | 6.7 | -0.4 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 10.6 | -2.3 |
| Jul | 7.2 | -5.6 | 6.4 | -9.5 | 8.8 | 1.4 |
| Jun | 9.1 | 0.6 | 13.3 | 13.1 | 2.0 | -16.0 |
| May | 27.5 | 4.6 | 17.7 | -4.7 | 43.5 | 20.3 |
| Apr | 11.0 | 3.9 | 14.1 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 2.2 |
| Mar | 12.0 | -6.0 | 14.4 | -5.6 | 8.5 | -6.6 |
| Feb | 29.3 | 2.9 | 32.5 | 1.6 | 24.8 | 5.1 |
| Jan | 26.8 | 3.4 | 32.8 | 3.8 | 17.7 | 2.7 |
| 2010 | ||||||
| Dec | 27.4 | -5.0 | 31.2 | -7.1 | 21.1 | -1.4 |
| Nov | 30.4 | 9.1 | 37.0 | 13.2 | 20.1 | 2.3 |
| Oct | 20.5 | 0.3 | 24.9 | -0.7 | 14.3 | 2.1 |
| Sep | 18.2 | -2.3 | 20.3 | -4.6 | 14.7 | 1.5 |
| Aug | 27.5 | 5.1 | 40.0 | 7.2 | 11.5 | 1.8 |
| Jul | 14.1 | -1.8 | 28.1 | -1.8 | -2.5 | -1.8 |
| Jun | 32.0 | 3.4 | 38.7 | 5.0 | 22.1 | 0.6 |
| May | 26.2 | 1.4 | 36.6 | 1.5 | 12.8 | 1.5 |
| Apr | 31.0 | 3.0 | 41.4 | 3.7 | 18.1 | 2.0 |
| Mar | 25.8 | 6.3 | 33.8 | 7.3 | 15.7 | 4.9 |
| Feb | 21.2 | -0.6 | 31.3 | 0.7 | 8.3 | -2.7 |
| Jan | 17.0 | 4.0 | 29.6 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 7.1 |
| Dec 2009 | 8.1 | -1.2 | 13.6 | -1.5 | 0.3 | -1.0 |
| Dec 2008 | -32.2 | -7.2 | -36.8 | -10.0 | -24.5 | -3.6 |
| Dec 2007 | 9.4 | -0.6 | 11.6 | -2.3 | 6.1 | 2.2 |
| Dec 2006 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| Dec 2005 | 1.8 | -2.1 | 9.7 | -2.5 | -8.4 | -1.6 |
| Dec 2004 | 19.5 | 11.2 | 18.6 | 12.2 | 20.6 | 9.7 |
| Dec 2003 | 11.7 | 2.1 | 17.2 | 5.0 | 5.4 | -1.6 |
| Dec 2002 | -2.8 | -4.3 | -3.7 | -8.1 | -1.8 | 0.2 |
| Average ∆% 2003-2007 | 9.0 | 12.1 | 4.9 | |||
| Average ∆% 2003-2012 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 0.5 |
Notes: AE: Annual Equivalent; M: Month; M: Calendar and seasonally-adjusted; 12 M: Non-adjusted
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland
https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html
Chart VE-4 of the German Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland shows the sharp upward trend of total orders in manufacturing before the global recession. There is also an obvious upward trend in the recovery from the recession with Germany’s economy being among the most dynamic in the advanced economies until the slowdown beginning in the final months of 2011 and what could be stationary series from late 2011 into 2012 but risk of decline/stability in the final segment.
Chart VE-4, Germany, Volume of Total Orders in Manufacturing, Non-Adjusted, 2010=100
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland
https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html
Chart VE-5 shows non-adjusted total orders in manufacturing and trend. There was sharp recovery from the global recession with subsequent decline. Trend reversed upwardly.
Chart VE-5, Germany, Volume of Total Orders in Manufacturing and Trend, Non-Adjusted, 2010=100
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland
https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html
Twelve-month rates of growth Germany’s exports and imports are shown in Table VE-7. There was sharp decline in the rates in Jun and Jul 2011 to single-digit levels especially for exports. In the 12 months ending in Aug 2011, exports rose 14.6 percent and imports 13.2 percent. In Sep 2011, exports grew 10.4 percent relative to a year earlier and imports grew 11.7 percent. Growth rates in 12 months ending in Oct 2011 fell significantly to 3.5 percent for exports and 9.2 percent for imports. Lower prices may explain part of the decline in nominal values. Exports fell 3.8 percent in 12 months ending in Sep 2012, rebounding to growth of 10.5 percent in Oct 2012 and minus 0.5 percent in Nov 2012 but sharp decline of 7.3 percent in Dec 2012 followed by rebound of 2.4 percent in Jan 2013. Exports fell 3.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2013 and declined 4.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2013. In Apr 2013, exports increased 7.7 percent relative to a year earlier. Exports fell 4.8 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2013. Exports fell 5.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2013 and imports fell 2.3 percent. In the 12 months ending in Sep 2013, exports increased 3.5 percent and imports fell 0.3 percent. Exports increased 0.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2013 while imports fell 1.5 percent. Exports increased 1.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2013 and imports fell 0.4 percent. Exports increased 4.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013 while imports increased 2.4 percent. Exports increased 2.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2014 while imports increased 1.5 percent. Exports increased 4.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2014 and imports increased 6.5 percent. Exports increased 1.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2014 and imports 5.3 percent. Exports fell 0.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014 while imports increased 0.6 percent. Imports decreased 4.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2012, rebounding to growth of 5.7 percent in Oct 2012, decreasing 1.5 percent in Nov 2012 and 7.8 percent in Dec 2012 and rebounding 2.7 percent in Jan 2013. Imports fell 5.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2013 and declined 7.5 percent in Mar 2013. In Apr 2013, imports increased 4.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In May 2013, imports fell 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Imports fell 1.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2013. In Jul 2013, imports increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Imports fell 2.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2013. In the 12 months ending in Sep 2013, exports declined 0.3 percent. Imports fell 1.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2013. Imports fell 0.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2013 and increased 2.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013. Imports increased 1.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2014 and 6.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2014. Imports increased 5.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2014 and 0.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014. Growth was much stronger in the recovery during 2010 and 2011 from the fall from 2007 to 2009. Germany’s trade grew at high rates in 2006 and 2005.
Table VE-7, Germany, Exports and Imports NSA Euro Billions and 12-Month ∆%
| Exports EURO Billions | 12- Month | Imports | 12-Month | |
| Apr 2014 | 93.8 | -0.2 | 76.4 | 0.6 |
| Mar | 96.0 | 1.9 | 79.4 | 5.3 |
| Feb | 92.4 | 4.6 | 76.2 | 6.5 |
| Jan | 90.7 | 2.9 | 75.7 | 1.5 |
| Dec 2013 | 82.1 | 4.5 | 68.2 | 2.4 |
| Nov | 94.7 | 1.1 | 76.5 | -0.4 |
| Oct | 99.1 | 0.7 | 81.3 | -1.5 |
| Sep | 94.6 | 3.5 | 74.3 | -0.3 |
| Aug | 85.0 | -5.7 | 71.7 | -2.3 |
| Jul | 93.1 | -0.3 | 76.8 | 0.9 |
| Jun | 92.4 | -2.0 | 75.4 | -1.2 |
| May | 88.2 | -4.8 | 74.6 | -3.1 |
| Apr | 94.0 | 7.7 | 76.0 | 4.3 |
| Mar | 94.2 | -4.6 | 75.4 | -7.5 |
| Feb | 88.3 | -3.2 | 71.5 | -5.7 |
| Jan | 88.2 | 2.4 | 74.6 | 2.7 |
| Dec 2012 | 78.6 | -7.3 | 66.6 | -7.8 |
| Nov | 93.7 | -0.5 | 76.8 | -1.5 |
| Oct | 98.4 | 10.5 | 82.5 | 5.7 |
| Sep | 91.4 | -3.8 | 74.5 | -4.1 |
| Aug | 90.2 | 5.7 | 73.4 | -0.1 |
| Jul | 93.3 | 9.1 | 76.2 | 1.5 |
| Jun | 94.3 | 7.0 | 76.3 | 1.4 |
| May | 92.7 | 0.3 | 77.0 | -0.7 |
| Apr | 87.2 | 3.2 | 72.9 | -1.1 |
| Mar | 98.7 | 0.1 | 81.5 | 2.1 |
| Feb | 91.2 | 7.9 | 75.8 | 4.6 |
| Jan | 86.1 | 8.6 | 72.6 | 4.6 |
| Dec 2011 | 84.8 | 4.7 | 72.3 | 5.6 |
| Nov | 94.1 | 7.4 | 78.0 | 5.8 |
| Oct | 89.1 | 3.5 | 78.1 | 9.2 |
| Sep | 95.0 | 10.4 | 77.7 | 11.7 |
| Aug | 85.3 | 14.6 | 73.5 | 13.2 |
| Jul | 85.6 | 5.2 | 75.0 | 9.7 |
| Jun | 88.1 | 3.3 | 75.2 | 5.6 |
| May | 92.4 | 21.2 | 77.5 | 17.4 |
| Apr | 84.5 | 12.4 | 73.7 | 18.5 |
| Mar | 98.7 | 15.3 | 79.8 | 15.1 |
| Feb | 84.5 | 20.8 | 72.5 | 27.6 |
| Jan | 79.3 | 25.2 | 69.4 | 26.0 |
| Dec 2010 | 81.0 | 20.0 | 68.4 | 24.4 |
| Nov | 87.6 | 21.2 | 73.7 | 30.9 |
| Oct | 86.0 | 18.7 | 71.5 | 19.2 |
| Sep | 86.0 | 21.2 | 69.5 | 17.0 |
| Aug | 74.4 | 23.8 | 64.9 | 27.1 |
| Jul | 81.4 | 15.3 | 68.4 | 24.4 |
| Jun | 85.3 | 27.5 | 71.2 | 33.9 |
| May | 76.2 | 25.6 | 66.1 | 31.3 |
| Apr | 75.2 | 16.8 | 62.2 | 14.4 |
| Mar | 85.6 | 22.0 | 69.3 | 18.0 |
| Feb | 70.0 | 9.7 | 56.8 | 3.2 |
| Jan | 63.4 | -0.3 | 55.1 | -1.9 |
| Dec 2009 | 67.5 | 1.2 | 55.0 | -7.3 |
| Dec 2008 | 66.7 | -8.6 | 59.4 | -5.1 |
| Dec 2007 | 73.0 | -0.6 | 62.5 | -0.1 |
| Dec 2006 | 73.4 | 10.2 | 62.6 | 8.5 |
| Dec 2005 | 66.6 | 11.5 | 57.7 | 18.1 |
| Dec 2004 | 59.7 | 9.2 | 48.9 | 10.8 |
| Dec 2003 | 54.7 | 7.6 | 44.1 | 3.9 |
| Dec 2002 | 50.8 | 5.5 | 42.5 | 6.4 |
| Dec 2001 | 48.2 | -3.7 | 39.9 | -17.5 |
| Dec 2000 | 50.0 | 48.4 |
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland
https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html
Chart VE-6 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland shows exports and trend of German exports. Growth has been with fluctuations around a strong upward trend that is milder than earlier in the recovery but could be moving upwardly after flattening.
Chart VE-6, Germany, Exports Original Value and Trend 2010-2014
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland
https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html
Imports also fell sharply and have been recovering with fluctuations around a strong upward trend that could be flattening. There could be new upward trend.
Chart VE-7, Germany, Imports Original Value and Trend 2010-2014
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland
https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html
Chart VE-8 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland shows the trade balance of Germany since 2010. There was sharp decline during the global recession and fluctuations around a mild upward trend during the recovery with stabilization followed by stronger trend in recent months and flattening/declining recently. The final segment could be an upward movement again.
Chart VE-8, Germany, Trade Balance Original and Trend 2010-2014
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland
https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html
Table VE-8 provides monthly rates of growth of exports and imports of Germany. Exports increased 3.0 percent calendar and seasonally adjusted (CSA) in Apr 2014 while imports increased 0.1 percent. Export growth had been relatively strong from Dec 2012 to Apr 2013 with only one monthly decline of 1.0 percent in Feb 2013. Exports fell 2.1 percent in May 2013 and 0.8 percent in Jul 2013. Exports grew in four consecutive months from Aug to Nov 2013. Exports fell in Dec 2013 and Feb-Mar 2014, increasing in Jan and Apr 2014. Export growth and import growth were vigorous in Jan-Mar 2011 when Germany’s economy outperformed most advanced economies but less dynamic and consistent in following months as world trade weakens.
Table VE-8, Germany, Exports and Imports Month ∆% Calendar and Seasonally Adjusted
| Exports | Imports | |
| Apr 2014 | 3.0 | 0.1 |
| Mar | -1.8 | -1.1 |
| Feb | -1.3 | 0.4 |
| Jan | 2.3 | 3.2 |
| Dec 2013 | -1.0 | -1.0 |
| Nov | 0.6 | -0.6 |
| Oct | 0.3 | 2.3 |
| Sep | 1.4 | -1.5 |
| Aug | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| Jul | -0.8 | 0.2 |
| Jun | 1.0 | -0.6 |
| May | -2.1 | 0.9 |
| Apr | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Mar | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| Feb | -1.0 | -2.8 |
| Jan | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| Dec 2012 | 0.5 | -0.9 |
| Nov | -2.4 | -3.4 |
| Oct | 0.3 | 2.0 |
| Sep | -2.7 | -0.1 |
| Aug | 1.6 | -0.1 |
| Jul | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| Jun | -1.0 | -2.1 |
| May | 3.9 | 4.2 |
| Apr | -1.5 | -4.0 |
| Mar | 0.2 | 1.1 |
| Feb | 1.4 | 3.3 |
| Jan | 2.2 | -0.8 |
| Dec 2011 | -2.6 | -1.4 |
| Nov | 3.0 | 0.1 |
| Oct | -3.5 | -0.9 |
| Sep | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| Aug | 2.5 | -0.1 |
| Jul | -1.2 | 0.3 |
| Jun | -0.1 | 0.5 |
| May | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| Apr | -3.6 | -0.3 |
| Mar | 4.9 | 1.8 |
| Feb | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| Jan | 0.5 | 2.6 |
| Dec 2010 | 0.1 | -1.7 |
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland
https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html
There is extremely important information in Table VE-9 for the current sovereign risk crisis in the euro zone. Table VE-9 provides the structure of regional and country relations of Germany’s exports and imports with newly available data for Apr 2014. German exports to other European Union (EU) members are 58.3 percent of total exports in Apr 2014 and 58.8 percent in cumulative Jan-Apr 2014. Exports to the euro area are 37.4 percent of the total in Apr and 37.6 percent cumulative in Jan-Apr. Exports to third countries are 41.7 percent of the total in Apr and 41.2 percent cumulative in Jan-Apr. There is similar distribution for imports. Exports to non-euro countries are increasing 6.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014, increasing 9.7 percent cumulative in Jan-Apr 2014 while exports to the euro area are increasing 2.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014 and increasing 2.3 percent cumulative in Jan-Apr 2014. Exports to third countries, accounting for 41.7 percent of the total in Apr 2014, are decreasing 5.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014 and decreasing 1.3 percent cumulative in Jan-Apr 2014, accounting for 41.2 percent of the cumulative total in Jan-Apr 2014. Price competitiveness through devaluation could improve export performance and growth. Economic performance in Germany is closely related to Germany’s high competitiveness in world markets. Weakness in the euro zone and the European Union in general could affect the German economy. This may be the major reason for choosing the “fiscal abuse” of the European Central Bank considered by Buiter (2011Oct31) over the breakdown of the euro zone. There is a tough analytical, empirical and forecasting doubt of growth and trade in the euro zone and the world with or without maintenance of the European Monetary Union (EMU) or euro zone. Germany could benefit from depreciation of the euro because of high share in its exports to countries not in the euro zone but breakdown of the euro zone raises doubts on the region’s economic growth that could affect German exports to other member states.
Table VE-9, Germany, Structure of Exports and Imports by Region, € Billions and ∆%
| Apr 2014 | Apr 12-Month | Cumulative Jan-Apr 2014 € Billions | Cumulative Jan-Apr 2014/ | |
| Total | 93.8 | -0.2 | 372.9 | 2.2 |
| A. EU | 54.7 % 58.3 | 4.1 | 219.4 % 58.8 | 4.9 |
| Euro Area | 35.1 % 37.4 | 2.7 | 140.1 % 37.6 | 2.3 |
| Non-euro Area | 19.6 % 20.9 | 6.9 | 79.3 % 21.3 | 9.7 |
| B. Third Countries | 39.1 % 41.7 | -5.7 | 153.5 % 41.2 | -1.3 |
| Total Imports | 76.4 | 0.6 | 307.7 | 3.5 |
| C EU Members | 50.6 % 66.2 | 3.3 | 201.5 % 65.5 | 5.1 |
| Euro Area | 34.8 % 45.6 | 1.6 | 139.0 % 45.2 | 4.1 |
| Non-euro Area | 15.8 % 20.7 | 7.3 | 62.4 % 20.3 | 7.3 |
| C Third Countries | 25.8 % 33.8 | -4.4 | 106.2 % 34.5 | 0.6 |
Notes: Total Exports = A+B; Total Imports = C+D
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/06/PE14_199_51.html
VF France. Table VF-FR provides growth rates of GDP of France with the estimates of Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE). The long-term rate of GDP growth of France from IVQ1949 to IVQ2012 is quite high at 3.2 percent. France’s growth rates were quite high in the four decades of the 1950s, 1960, 1970s and 1980s with an average growth rate of 4.0 percent compounding the average rates in the decades and discounting to one decade. The growth impulse diminished with 2.0 percent in the 1990s and 1.8 percent from 2000 to 2007. The average growth rate from 2000 to 2012, using fourth quarter data, is 1.1 percent because of the sharp impact of the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. The growth rate from 2000 to 2012 is 1.1 percent. Cobet and Wilson (2002) provide estimates of output per hour and unit labor costs in national currency and US dollars for the US, Japan and Germany from 1950 to 2000 (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 137-44). The average yearly rate of productivity change from 1950 to 2000 was 2.9 percent in the US, 6.3 percent for Japan and 4.7 percent for Germany while unit labor costs in USD increased at 2.6 percent in the US, 4.7 percent in Japan and 4.3 percent in Germany. From 1995 to 2000, output per hour increased at the average yearly rate of 4.6 percent in the US, 3.9 percent in Japan and 2.6 percent in Germany while unit labor costs in US fell at minus 0.7 percent in the US, 4.3 percent in Japan and 7.5 percent in Germany. There was increase in productivity growth in the G7 in Japan and France in the second half of the 1990s but significantly lower than the acceleration of 1.3 percentage points per year in the US. Lucas (2011May) compares growth of the G7 economies (US, UK, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Canada) and Spain, finding that catch-up growth with earlier rates for the US and UK stalled in the 1970s.
Table VF-FR, France, Average Growth Rates of GDP Fourth Quarter, 1949-2012
| Period | Average ∆% |
| 1949-2013 | 3.2 |
| 2000-2013 | 1.1 |
| 2000-2012 | 1.1 |
| 2000-2007 | 1.8 |
| 1990-1999 | 2.0 |
| 1980-1989 | 2.6 |
| 1970-1979 | 3.7 |
| 1960-1969 | 5.7 |
| 1950-1959 | 4.2 |
Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques
http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=26&date=20140515
The Markit Flash France Composite Output Index decreased from 50.6 in Apr to 49.3 in May (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d349dc59325e4b8393f119abfcfe9764). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds continuing weak performance in IIQ2014 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d349dc59325e4b8393f119abfcfe9764). The Markit France Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing with close association with French GDP, decreased from 50.6 in Apr to 49.3 in May, indicating marginal contraction (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/622d5a75f32d4c13b89df0524159cca8). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the France Services PMI®, finds standstill in demand (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/622d5a75f32d4c13b89df0524159cca8). The Markit France Services Activity index decreased from 50.4 in Apr to 49.1 in May (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/622d5a75f32d4c13b89df0524159cca8). The Markit France Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index® decreased to 49.6 in May from 51.2 in Apr (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/09a850c5861b4429a8f101fd8b329be0). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the France Manufacturing PMI®, finds deteriorating conditions because of weakness in new orders (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/09a850c5861b4429a8f101fd8b329be0). Table FR provides the country data table for France.
Table FR, France, Economic Indicators
| CPI | Apr month ∆% 0.0 |
| PPI | Apr month ∆%: -0.2 Blog 6/1/14 |
| GDP Growth | IQ2014/IVQ2013 ∆%:0.0 |
| Industrial Production | Mar ∆%: |
| Consumer Spending | Manufactured Goods |
| Employment | Unemployment Rate: IQ2014 9.7% |
| Trade Balance | Apr Exports ∆%: month minus 0.7, 12 months minus 6.4 Apr Imports ∆%: month minus 2.9, 12 months minus 5.5 Blog 6/8/14 |
| Confidence Indicators | Historical average 100 May Mfg Business Climate 99.7 Blog 6/1/14 |
Links to blog comments in Table FR:
6/1/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-instability-mediocre-cyclical.html
5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html
5/11/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/rules-discretionary-authorities-and.html
4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html
2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html
12/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/collapse-of-united-states-dynamism-of.html
11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html
9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html
6/30/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/tapering-quantitative-easing-policy-and.html
5/19/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/word-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html
The number of unemployed in France rose from 1.979 million in IVQ2007, for a rate of unemployment of 7.1 percent, to 2.779 million in IQ2014, for a rate of unemployment of 9.7 percent, as shown in Table VF-1. At the same time, the rate of employment fell from 64.7 percent in IVQ2007 to 64.3 percent in IQ2014.
Table VF-1, France, Metropolitan France, Employment Rate, Unemployed and Unemployment Rate, Millions and %
| Unemployed | Unemployed Percent | Employment Rate | |
| IQ2014 | 2.779 | 9.7 | 64.3 |
| IVQ2013 | 2.756 | 9.7 | 64.2 |
| IIIQ2013 | 2.835 | 9.9 | 64.1 |
| IIQ2013 | 2.840 | 9.9 | 64.0 |
| IQ2013 | 2.828 | 9.9 | 63.9 |
| IVQ2012 | 2.784 | 9.7 | 64.2 |
| IIIQ2012 | 2.677 | 9.4 | 64.0 |
| IIQ2012 | 2.643 | 9.3 | 64.0 |
| IQ2012 | 2.583 | 9.1 | 63.9 |
| IVQ2011 | 2.529 | 8.9 | 63.9 |
| IIIQ2011 | 2.477 | 8.8 | 63.9 |
| IIQ2011 | 2.432 | 8.6 | 64.0 |
| IQ2011 | 2.461 | 8.7 | 64.0 |
| IVQ2010 | 2.480 | 8.8 | 63.9 |
| IIIQ2010 | 2.494 | 8.8 | 64.0 |
| IIQ2010 | 2.504 | 8.9 | 64.0 |
| IQ2010 | 2.539 | 9.0 | 64.0 |
| IVQ2009 | 2.572 | 9.1 | 63.8 |
| IIIQ2009 | 2.473 | 8.8 | 63.9 |
| IIQ2009 | 2.485 | 8.8 | 64.3 |
| IQ2009 | 2.306 | 8.2 | 64.4 |
| IVQ2008 | 2.067 | 7.4 | 64.9 |
| IIIQ2008 | 1.976 | 7.1 | 64.9 |
| IIQ2008 | 1.936 | 6.9 | 64.9 |
| IQ2008 | 1.897 | 6.8 | 65.0 |
| IV2007 | 1.979 | 7.1 | 64.7 |
| IIIQ2007 | 2.121 | 7.6 | 64.4 |
| IIQ2007 | 2.156 | 7.8 | 64.2 |
| IQ2007 | 2.238 | 8.1 | 64.0 |
| IVQ2006 | 2.202 | 8.0 | 64.0 |
| IVQ2005 | 2.373 | 8.7 | 63.6 |
| IVQ2004 | 2.317 | 8.5 | 63.8 |
| IVQ2003 | 2.263 | 8.4 | 63.9 |
| IVQ2002 | 2.045 | 7.6 | |
| IVQ2001 | 1.974 | 7.5 | |
| IVQ2000 | 2.017 | 7.7 | |
| IVQ1999 | 2.363 | 9.1 | |
| IVQ1995 | 2.441 | 9.6 | |
| IVQ1990 | 1.873 | 7.6 | |
| IVQ1985 | 2.086 | 8.5 | |
| IVQ1980 | 1.272 | 5.3 | |
| IVQ1975 | 0.812 | 3.6 |
Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques
http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=14&date=20140605
Chart VF-1 of the Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques of France provides an excellent view of the unemployment rate in France. The rate of unemployment rose from 1975 to 1987 and then fell sharply. The rate of unemployment increased in the recession of the early 1990s followed by sharp decline. The rate of unemployment increased in the recession of the early 2000s and fell again during the expansion. The rate of unemployment rose sharply during the global recession with initial recovery followed by another increase and stability.
Chart VF-1, Metropolitan France, ILO Definition Unemployment Rate, IQ1975-IQ2014
Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques
http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=14&date=20140605
Chart VF-2 of the Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques of France provides an excellent view of the unemployment rate in France. The rate of unemployment rose from 2003 to 2006 and then fell sharply in 2007. The global recession caused sharp increase in the French rate of unemployment that has declined from the peak, stabilized at a high level and is climbing/stabilizing.
Chart VF-2, France, Unemployment Rate International Labor Organization Criterion, Seasonally Adjusted Average over Quarter, Percent
Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques
http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=14&date=20140605
France has been running a trade deficit fluctuating around €5,000 million as shown in Table VF-2. Exports decreased 0.7 percent in Apr 2014 while imports decreased 2.9 percent. The trade deficit decreased from revised €4867 million in Mar 2014 to €3933 million in Apr 2014.
Table VF-2, France, Exports, Imports and Trade Balance, € Millions
| Exports | Imports | Trade Balance | |
| Apr 2014 | 35,972 | 39,905 | -3,933 |
| Mar | 36,235 | 41,102 | -4,867 |
| Feb | 36,292 | 40,126 | -3,834 |
| Jan | 36,048 | 41,809 | -5,761 |
| Dec 2013 | 36,713 | 41,962 | -5,249 |
| Nov | 35,691 | 41,162 | -5,471 |
| Oct | 36,351 | 41,139 | -4,788 |
| Sep | 36,509 | 42,231 | -5,722 |
| Aug | 36,024 | 41,152 | -5,128 |
| Jul | 36,579 | 41,990 | -5,411 |
| Jun | 36,062 | 40,944 | -4,882 |
| May | 35,901 | 41,648 | -5,747 |
| Apr | 38,452 | 42,247 | -3,795 |
| Mar | 36,132 | 40,634 | -4,502 |
| Feb | 35,422 | 41,652 | -6,230 |
| Jan | 36,585 | 41,717 | -5,132 |
| Dec 2012 | 37,016 | 42,489 | -5,473 |
| Dec 2011 | 35,740 | 41,098 | -5,358 |
| Dec 2010 | 33,774 | 39,222 | -5,448 |
Source: France, Direction générale des douanes et droits indirects
http://lekiosque.finances.gouv.fr/AppChiffre/Portail_default.asp
Table VF-3 provides month and 12-month percentage changes of France’s exports and imports. Exports decreased 0.7 percent in Apr 2014 and decreased 6.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014. Imports decreased 2.9 percent in Apr 2014 and decreased 5.5 percent in 12 months. Growth of exports and imports has fluctuated in 2011, 2012 and 2013-2014 because of price surges of commodities and raw materials. Weak economic conditions worldwide also influence trade performance.
Table VF-3, France, Exports and Imports, Month and 12-Month ∆%
| Exports | Exports | Imports | Imports 12-Month ∆% | |
| Apr 2014 | -0.7 | -6.4 | -2.9 | -5.5 |
| Jan 2014 | -1.8 | -1.5 | -0.4 | 0.2 |
| Dec 2013 | 2.9 | -0.8 | 1.9 | -1.2 |
| Dec 2012 | 3.6 | 3.4 | ||
| Dec 2011 | 5.8 | 4.8 | ||
| Dec 2010 | 13.1 | 14.2 | ||
| Dec 2009 | -9.6 | -2.0 | ||
| Dec 2008 | -6.7 | -10.8 | ||
| Dec 2007 | 5.7 | 7.9 | ||
| Dec 2006 | 6.6 | 6.5 | ||
| Dec 2005 | 11.8 | 15.6 | ||
| Dec 2004 | -3.7 | 5.8 | ||
| Dec 2003 | 7.1 | 1.6 |
Source: France, Direction générale des douanes et droits indirects
http://lekiosque.finances.gouv.fr/AppChiffre/Portail_default.asp
Annual data for France’s exports, imports and trade balance are provided in Table VF-4. France’s trade balance deteriorated sharply from 2007 to 2011 with the deficit increasing from €42,494 million in 2007 to €74,491 million in 2011. Annual growth rates of exports have not been sufficiently high to compensate for growth of imports driven in part by commodity price increases. In 2012, the trade deficit declined to €67,659 million with growth of exports of 3.1 percent and of imports of 1.3 percent. The trade deficit declined to €61,069 in 2013 with declines of exports of 1.3 percent and of 2.4 percent for imports.
Table VF-4, France, Exports, Imports and Balance Year € Millions and ∆%
| Exports € Millions | ∆% | Imports € Millions | ∆% | Balance € Millions | |
| Apr 2014 12 Months | 433,433 | 493,429 | -59,996 | ||
| Year | |||||
| 2013 | 435,724 | -1.3 | 496,793 | -2.4 | -61,069 |
| 2012 | 441,550 | 3.1 | 509,209 | 1.3 | -67,659 |
| 2011 | 428,350 | 8.4 | 502,841 | 12.4 | -74,491 |
| 2010 | 395,039 | 14.0 | 447,483 | 14.2 | -52,444 |
| 2009 | 346,481 | -17.0 | 391,872 | -17.3 | -45,391 |
| 2008 | 417,636 | 2.7 | 473,853 | 5.5 | -56,217 |
| 2007 | 406,487 | 3.0 | 448,981 | 5.8 | -42,494 |
| 2006 | 394,621 | 9.5 | 424,549 | 10.4 | -29,928 |
| 2005 | 360,376 | 4.4 | 384,588 | 9.6 | -24,212 |
| 2004 | 345,256 | 5.4 | 350,996 | 7.0 | -5,740 |
| 2003 | 327,653 | 327,884 | -231 |
Source: France, Direction générale des douanes et droits indirects
http://lekiosque.finances.gouv.fr/AppChiffre/Portail_default.asp
VG Italy. Table VG-IT provides percentage changes in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier of Italy’s expenditure components in chained volume measures. GDP has been declining at sharper rates from minus 0.6 percent in IVQ2011 to minus 2.8 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.4 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.1 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.9 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.9 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. The aggregate demand components of consumption and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) have been declining at faster rates. The rates of decline of GDP, consumption and GFCF were somewhat milder in IIIQ2013 and IVQ2013 than in IQ2013 and the final three quarters of 2012.
Table VG-IT, Italy, GDP and Expenditure Components, Chained Volume Measures, Quarter ∆% on Same Quarter Year Earlier
| GDP | Imports | Consumption | GFCF | Exports | |
| 2013 | |||||
| 2014 | |||||
| IQ | -0.5 | ||||
| IVQ | -0.9 | -0.1 | -1.1 | -2.4 | 1.0 |
| IIIQ | -1.9 | -2.0 | -1.8 | -4.4 | -0.4 |
| IIQ | -2.1 | -4.4 | -2.8 | -5.0 | 0.0 |
| IQ | -2.4 | -5.0 | -2.9 | -6.6 | -0.7 |
| 2012 | |||||
| IVQ | -2.8 | -6.5 | -4.1 | -7.4 | 1.0 |
| IIIQ | -2.6 | -7.1 | -3.9 | -8.3 | 2.0 |
| IIQ | -2.4 | -6.9 | -3.4 | -8.5 | 2.2 |
| IQ | -1.7 | -7.9 | -3.2 | -8.0 | 3.0 |
| 2011 | |||||
| IVQ | -0.6 | -6.8 | -1.9 | -3.8 | 3.5 |
| IIIQ | 0.4 | 0.6 | -1.1 | -2.4 | 6.1 |
| IIQ | 1.1 | 3.6 | 0.3 | -1.0 | 7.5 |
| IQ | 1.4 | 9.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 11.0 |
| 2010 | |||||
| IVQ | 2.2 | 15.6 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 13.4 |
| IIIQ | 1.8 | 13.2 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 12.1 |
| IIQ | 1.8 | 13.4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 12.0 |
| IQ | 0.9 | 7.0 | 1.0 | -2.4 | 7.1 |
| 2009 | |||||
| IVQ | -3.5 | -6.3 | 0.2 | -8.2 | -9.3 |
| IIIQ | -5.0 | -12.2 | -0.8 | -12.6 | -16.4 |
| IIQ | -6.6 | -17.9 | -1.4 | -13.6 | -21.4 |
| IQ | -6.9 | -17.2 | -1.8 | -12.4 | -22.8 |
| 2008 | |||||
| IVQ | -3.0 | -8.2 | -0.9 | -8.3 | -10.3 |
| IIIQ | -1.9 | -5.0 | -0.8 | -4.5 | -3.9 |
| IIQ | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -1.5 | 0.4 |
| IQ | 0.5 | 1.7 | 0.1 | -1.0 | 2.9 |
GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation
Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica
http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/114963
http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/122146
The Markit/ADACI Business Activity Index increased from 51.1 in Apr to 51.6 in May (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/361c2cc3ce8c400aa0bea756f27388cb). Phil Smith, Economist at Markit and author of the Italy Services PMI®, finds limited contribution of services to growth with recovery mostly in production (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/361c2cc3ce8c400aa0bea756f27388cb). The Markit/ADACI Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®), decreased from 54.0 in Apr to 53.2 in May, which constitutes strong improvement in Italy’s manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/fa26dce1f4b446c9b05dd01256627789). New export orders was strong. Phil Smith, Economist at Markit and author of the Italian Manufacturing PMI®, finds continuing growth of manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/fa26dce1f4b446c9b05dd01256627789). Table IT provides the country data table for Italy.
Table IT, Italy, Economic Indicators
| Consumer Price Index | May month ∆%: -0.1 |
| Producer Price Index | Apr month ∆%: -0.3 Blog 6/1/14 |
| GDP Growth | IQ2014/IVQ2013 SA ∆%: minus 0.1 |
| Labor Report | Apr 2014 Participation rate 63.6% Employment ratio 55.4% Unemployment rate 12.6% Youth Unemployment 43.3% Blog 6/8/14 |
| Industrial Production | Mar month ∆%: -0.5 |
| Retail Sales | Mar month ∆%: -0.2 Mar 12-month ∆%: -3.5 Blog 5/25/14 |
| Business Confidence | Mfg Apr 99.9, Dec 98.3 Construction Apr 74.8, Dec 81.8 Blog 5/4/14 |
| Trade Balance | Balance Mar SA €3563 million versus Feb €3517 |
Links to blog comments in Table IT:
6/1/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-instability-mediocre-cyclical.html
5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html
5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html
5/11/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/rules-discretionary-authorities-and.html
3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html
2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html
12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html
11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html
9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html
8/11/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/recovery-without-hiring-loss-of-full.html
6/16/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/recovery-without-hiring-seven-million.html
3/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html
Data on Italy’s labor market since 2004 are provided in Table VG-1. The unemployment rate has risen from 6.2 percent in Dec 2006 to 12.6 percent in Apr 2014. The rate of youth unemployment for ages 15 to 24 years increased from 20.3 percent in Dec 2006 to 43.3 percent in Apr 2014. As in other advanced economies, unemployment has reached high levels.
Table VG-1, Italy, Labor Report
| Participation Rate % | Employment Ratio % | Unemployment Rate % | Unemployment | |
| Apr 2014 | 63.6 | 55.4 | 12.6 | 43.3 |
| Mar | 63.8 | 55.6 | 12.6 | 42.9 |
| Feb | 63.6 | 55.5 | 12.7 | 42.7 |
| Jan | 63.6 | 55.5 | 12.7 | 42.9 |
| Dec 2013 | 63.5 | 55.4 | 12.6 | 41.9 |
| Nov | 63.6 | 55.4 | 12.7 | 41.9 |
| Oct | 63.5 | 55.5 | 12.4 | 41.5 |
| Sep | 63.5 | 55.4 | 12.4 | 41.1 |
| Aug | 63.5 | 55.5 | 12.3 | 40.6 |
| Jul | 63.4 | 55.6 | 12.1 | 39.8 |
| Jun | 63.4 | 55.7 | 12.1 | 39.4 |
| May | 63.4 | 55.6 | 12.2 | 38.5 |
| Apr | 63.3 | 55.7 | 12.0 | 39.4 |
| Mar | 63.5 | 55.8 | 12.0 | 39.1 |
| Feb | 63.7 | 56.0 | 11.9 | 38.7 |
| Jan | 63.7 | 56.0 | 11.9 | 38.4 |
| Dec 2012 | 63.7 | 56.3 | 11.5 | 37.5 |
| Nov | 63.7 | 56.4 | 11.2 | 37.5 |
| Oct | 63.8 | 56.5 | 11.3 | 36.4 |
| Sep | 63.7 | 56.6 | 10.9 | 36.2 |
| Aug | 63.6 | 56.7 | 10.7 | 34.6 |
| Jul | 63.7 | 56.7 | 10.8 | 35.4 |
| Jun | 63.8 | 56.8 | 10.8 | 34.6 |
| May | 63.7 | 57.0 | 10.4 | 35.7 |
| Apr | 63.8 | 56.9 | 10.6 | 34.8 |
| Mar | 63.5 | 56.9 | 10.4 | 35.1 |
| Feb | 63.4 | 57.0 | 10.0 | 33.6 |
| Jan | 63.2 | 57.1 | 9.5 | 32.2 |
| Dec 2011 | 63.0 | 56.9 | 9.5 | 31.8 |
| Nov | 62.7 | 56.8 | 9.3 | 31.9 |
| Oct | 62.6 | 57.0 | 8.8 | 30.5 |
| Sep | 62.5 | 56.8 | 8.9 | 30.5 |
| Aug | 62.4 | 57.0 | 8.5 | 29.3 |
| Jul | 62.2 | 57.0 | 8.3 | 28.7 |
| Jun | 62.0 | 57.0 | 8.0 | 27.9 |
| May | 62.1 | 57.0 | 8.1 | 27.8 |
| Apr | 61.8 | 56.9 | 7.7 | 27.3 |
| Mar | 62.1 | 57.1 | 7.9 | 27.8 |
| Feb | 61.8 | 56.8 | 7.9 | 27.6 |
| Jan | 61.9 | 56.9 | 8.0 | 28.2 |
| Dec 2010 | 62.1 | 57.0 | 8.2 | 28.4 |
| Dec 2009 | 62.4 | 57.1 | 8.4 | 26.7 |
| Dec 2008 | 62.5 | 58.2 | 6.8 | 22.7 |
| Dec 2007 | 63.1 | 58.9 | 6.5 | 21.6 |
| Dec 2006 | 62.5 | 58.6 | 6.2 | 20.3 |
| Dec 2005 | 62.6 | 57.8 | 7.6 | 23.4 |
| Dec 2004 | 62.5 | 57.5 | 7.9 | 23.7 |
Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica
http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/123887
Table VG-2 provides more detail on the labor report for Italy in Apr 2014. The level of employment decreased 68,000 from Mar 2014 to Apr 2014 and fell 181,000 from Mar 2013 to Apr 2014. Unemployment decreased 14,000 in Apr 2014 and increased 138,000 from a year earlier. A dramatic aspect found in most advanced economies is the high rate of unemployment of youth at 43.3 percent in Apr 2014 for ages 15 to 24 years.
Table VG-2, Italy, Labor Report, NSA
| Apr 2014 | 1000s | Change from Prior Month 1000s | ∆% from Prior Month | Change from Prior Year 1000s | ∆% from Prior Year |
| EMP | 22,295 | -68 | -0.3 | -181 | -0.8 |
| UNE | 3,216 | -14 | -0.4 | 138 | 4.5 |
| INA 15-64 | 14,370 | 81 | 0.6 | -84 | -0.6 |
| EMP 15-24 | 898 | -16 | -1.8 | -91 | -9.2 |
| UNE 15-24 | 685 | -1 | -0.2 | 41 | 6.3 |
| INA 15-24 | 4,405 | 14 | 0.3 | 11 | 0.2 |
| EMP % | 55.4 | -0.2 | -0.3 | ||
| UNE % | 12.6 | 0.0 | 0.6 | ||
| Youth UNE % 15-24 | 43.3 | 0.4 | 3.8 | ||
| INA % 15-64 | 36.4 | 0.2 | -0.1 |
Notes: EMP: Employed; UNE: Unemployed; INA 15-64: Inactive aged 15 to 64; EMP %: Employment Rate; UNE %: Unemployment Rate; Youth UNE % 15-24: Youth Unemployment Rate aged 15 to 24; INA % 15-64: Inactive Rate aged 15 to 64.
Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica
http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/123887
Chart VG-1 of the Istituto Nazionale di Statistica provides the rate of unemployment in Italy. The rate increased from 10.6 percent in Apr 2013 to 12.6 percent in Apr 2014.
Chart VG-1, Italy, Rate of Unemployment, %
Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica
Chart VG-2 of the Istituto Nazionale di Statistica provides the total number of employed persons in Italy. The level of employment dropped from 22.476 million in Apr 2013 to 22.295 million in Apr 2014.
Chart VG-2, Italy, Total Number of Employed Persons, Millions, SA
Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica
VH United Kingdom. Annual data in Table VH-UK show the strong impact of the global recession in the UK with decline of GDP of 5.2 percent in 2009 after dropping 0.8 percent in 2008. Recovery of 1.7 percent in 2010 is relatively low in comparison with annual growth rates in 2007 and earlier years. Growth was only 1.1 percent in 2011 and 0.3 percent in 2012. Growth increased to 1.7 percent in 2013. The bottom part of Table VH-UK provides average growth rates of UK GDP since 1948. The UK economy grew at 2.6 percent per year on average between 1948 and 2013, which is relatively high for an advanced economy. The growth rate of GDP between 2000 and 2007 is higher at 3.0 percent. Growth in the current cyclical expansion has been only at 1.2 percent as advanced economies struggle with weak internal demand and world trade. GDP in 2013 was lower by 1.4 percent relative to 2007.
Table VH-UK, UK, Gross Domestic Product, ∆%
| ∆% on Prior Year | |
| 1998 | 3.6 |
| 1999 | 2.9 |
| 2000 | 4.4 |
| 2001 | 2.2 |
| 2002 | 2.3 |
| 2003 | 3.9 |
| 2004 | 3.2 |
| 2005 | 3.2 |
| 2006 | 2.8 |
| 2007 | 3.4 |
| 2008 | -0.8 |
| 2009 | -5.2 |
| 2010 | 1.7 |
| 2011 | 1.1 |
| 2012 | 0.3 |
| 2013 | 1.7 |
| Average Growth Rates ∆% per Year | |
| 1948-2013 | 2.6 |
| 1950-1959 | 2.7 |
| 1960-1969 | 3.3 |
| 1970-1979 | 2.5 |
| 1980-1989 | 3.2 |
| 1990-1999 | 2.9 |
| 2000-2007 | 3.0 |
| 2007-2012* | -3.0 |
| 2007-2013* | -1.4 |
| 2000-2013 | 1.5 |
*Absolute change from 2007 to 2012
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/second-estimate-of-gdp/q1-2014/index.html
The Business Activity Index of the Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI® decreased from 58.7 in Apr to 58.6 in May (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/9f094c86cf5944d081db5a32c18cdf30). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds the combined indices consistent with the UK economy growing at 0.8 percent in IIQ2014 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/9f094c86cf5944d081db5a32c18cdf30). The Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®) decreased to 57.0 in May from 57.3 in Apr (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c23c306f06834308a2aeb0e186d79cbd). New export orders increased for the fourteenth consecutive month. New orders increased from North America, Europe, Asia, Europe, New Zealand and the Middle East. Rob Dobson, Senior Economist at Markit that compiles the Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI®, finds that manufacturing conditions continue at solid pace with probable growth at 1.5 percent for IIQ2014 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c23c306f06834308a2aeb0e186d79cbd). Table UK provides the economic indicators for the United Kingdom.
Table UK, UK Economic Indicators
| CPI | Apr month ∆%: 0.4 |
| Output/Input Prices | Output Prices: Apr 12-month NSA ∆%: 0.6; excluding food, petroleum ∆%: 1.0 |
| GDP Growth | IQ2014 prior quarter ∆% 0.8; year earlier same quarter ∆%: 3.1 |
| Industrial Production | Mar 2014/Mar 2013 ∆%: Production Industries 2.3; Manufacturing 3.3 |
| Retail Sales | Apr month ∆%: 1.3 |
| Labor Market | Jan-Mar Unemployment Rate: 6.8%; Claimant Count 3.3%; Earnings Growth 1.7% |
| GDP and the Labor Market | IQ2014 Weekly Hours 102.8, GDP 99.3, Employment 103.1 IQ2008 =100 GDP IQ14 99.3 IQ2008=100 Blog 5/25/14 |
| Trade Balance | Balance SA Apr minus ₤2543 million |
Links to blog comments in Table UK:
5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html
5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html
5/11/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/rules-discretionary-authorities-and.html
5/4/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html
4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html
3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html
2/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html
12/22/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html
12/1/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/exit-risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html
10/27/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/twenty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html
9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html
8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html
7/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html
5/26/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html
4/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_28.html
03/31/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html
The UK’s trade account is in Table VH-5. In Apr 2014, the UK ran a deficit in trade of goods and services (total trade) of ₤2543 million. The deficits in trade of goods was ₤9624 million and ₤8357 million in goods excluding oil. A surplus in services of ₤7081 million contributed to the smaller overall deficit in goods and services (-₤9624 million plus ₤7081 million equal to ₤2543 million). Services have contributed to lower deficits and have softened the impact of the global recession on the UK economy. Exports of goods and services decreased 2.9 percent in Apr 2014 and decreased 2.9 percent in the quarter Feb 2014-Apr 2014 relative to the same quarter a year earlier with imports increasing 0.6 percent in Apr and decreasing 3.7 percent in Feb 2014-Apr 2014 relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Excluding oil, UK exports of goods decreased 1.9 percent in Apr and fell 4.5 percent in Feb 2014-Apr 2014 relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Imports increased 0.7 percent in Apr and fell 4.0 percent in Feb 2014-Apr 2014 relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Services exports decreased 0.9 percent in Apr and increased 3.7 percent in Feb 2014-Apr 2014 relative to the same quarter a year earlier while services imports decreased 0.1 percent in Apr and increased 2.5 percent in Feb 2014-Apr 2014 relative to the same quarter a year earlier.
Table VH-1, Value of UK Trade in Goods and Services, Balance of Payments Basis, ₤ Million SA and ∆%
| ₤ Million SA Apr 2014 | Month ∆% | Feb 2014-Apr 2014 ∆% Feb 2013-Apr 2013 | ||
| Total Trade | ||||
| Exports | 40,659 | -2.9 | -2.9 | |
| Imports | 43,202 | 0.6 | -3.7 | |
| Balance | -2,543 | |||
| Trade in Goods | ||||
| Exports | 23,407 | -4.4 | -7.3 | |
| Imports | 33,031 | 0.8 | -5.5 | |
| Balance | -9,624 | |||
| Trade in Goods Excluding Oil | ||||
| Exports | 21,172 | -1.9 | -4.5 | |
| Imports | 29,529 | 0.7 | -4.0 | |
| Balance | -8,357 | |||
| Trade in Services | ||||
| Exports | 17,252 | -0.9 | 3.7 | |
| Imports | 10,171 | -0.1 | 2.5 | |
| Balance | 7,081 |
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/uktrade/uk-trade/april-2014/index.html
© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014.
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