Financial/Geopolitical Risks, Recovery without Hiring, Ten Million Fewer Full-time Jobs, Theory and Reality of Cyclical Slow Growth Not Secular Stagnation: Youth and Middle-Age Unemployment, United States Services, World Cyclical Slow Growth and Global Recession Risk
Carlos M. Pelaez
© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
Executive Summary
I Recovery without Hiring
IA1 Hiring Collapse
IA2 Labor Underutilization
ICA3 Ten Million Fewer Full-time Jobs
IA4 Theory and Reality of Cyclical Slow Growth Not Secular Stagnation: Youth and
Middle-Age Unemployment
II United States Services
III World Financial Turbulence
IIIA Financial Risks
IIIE Appendix Euro Zone Survival Risk
IIIF Appendix on Sovereign Bond Valuation
IV Global Inflation
V World Economic Slowdown
VA United States
VB Japan
VC China
VD Euro Area
VE Germany
VF France
VG Italy
VH United Kingdom
VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets
VII Economic Indicators
VIII Interest Rates
IX Conclusion
References
Appendixes
Appendix I The Great Inflation
IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies
IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact
IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort
IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis
IIIGA Monetary Policy with Deficit Financing of Economic Growth
IIIGB Adjustment during the Debt Crisis of the 1980s
VB Japan. The GDP of Japan grew at 1.0 percent per year on average from 1991 to 2002, with the GDP implicit deflator falling at 0.8 percent per year on average. The average growth rate of Japan’s GDP was 4 percent per year on average from the middle of the 1970s to 1992 (Ito 2004). Low growth in Japan in the 1990s is commonly labeled as “the lost decade” (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 81-115). Table VB-GDP provides yearly growth rates of Japan’s GDP from 1995 to 2013. Growth weakened from 2.7 per cent in 1995 and 1996 to contractions of 1.5 percent in 1999 and 0.4 percent in 2001 and growth rates below 2 percent with exception of 2.3 percent in 2003. Japan’s GDP contracted sharply by 3.7 percent in 2006 and 2.0 percent in 2009. As in most advanced economies, growth was robust at 3.4 percent in 2010 but mediocre at 0.3 percent in 2011 and 0.7 percent in 2013. Japan’s GDP grew 2.3 percent in 2013.
Table VB-GDP, Japan, Yearly Percentage Change of GDP ∆%
| Calendar Year | ∆% |
| 1995 | 2.7 |
| 1996 | 2.7 |
| 1997 | 0.1 |
| 1998 | -1.5 |
| 1999 | 0.5 |
| 2000 | 2.0 |
| 2001 | -0.4 |
| 2002 | 1.1 |
| 2003 | 2.3 |
| 2004 | 1.5 |
| 2005 | 1.9 |
| 2006 | 1.8 |
| 2007 | 1.8 |
| 2008 | -3.7 |
| 2009 | -2.0 |
| 2010 | 3.4 |
| 2011 | 0.3 |
| 2012 | 0.7 |
| 2013 | 2.3 |
Source: Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office
http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html
http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
Table VB-BOJF provides the forecasts of economic activity and inflation in Japan by the majority of members of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, which is part of their Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1404b.pdf). For fiscal 2013, the forecast is of growth of GDP between 2.2 and 2.3 percent, with the all items CPI less fresh food of 0.8 percent (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1404b.pdf). The critical difference is forecast of the CPI excluding fresh food of 3.0 to 3.5 percent in 2014, 1.9 to 2.8 percent in 2015 and 2.0 to 3.0 in 2016. Consumer price inflation in Japan excluding fresh food was 0.3 percent in Mar 2013 and 1.3 percent in 12 months (http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1581.htm). The new monetary policy of the Bank of Japan aims to increase inflation to 2 percent. These forecasts are biannual in Apr and Oct. The Cabinet Office, Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan released on Jan 22, 2013, a “Joint Statement of the Government and the Bank of Japan on Overcoming Deflation and Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130122c.pdf) with the important change of increasing the inflation target of monetary policy from 1 percent to 2 percent:
“The Bank of Japan conducts monetary policy based on the principle that the policy shall be aimed at achieving price stability, thereby contributing to the sound development of the national economy, and is responsible for maintaining financial system stability. The Bank aims to achieve price stability on a sustainable basis, given that there are various factors that affect prices in the short run.
The Bank recognizes that the inflation rate consistent with price stability on a sustainable basis will rise as efforts by a wide range of entities toward strengthening competitiveness and growth potential of Japan's economy make progress. Based on this recognition, the Bank sets the price stability target at 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index.
Under the price stability target specified above, the Bank will pursue monetary easing and aim to achieve this target at the earliest possible time. Taking into consideration that it will take considerable time before the effects of monetary policy permeate the economy, the Bank will ascertain whether there is any significant risk to the sustainability of economic growth, including from the accumulation of financial imbalances.”
The Bank of Japan also provided explicit analysis of its view on price stability in a “Background note regarding the Bank’s thinking on price stability” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/data/rel130123a1.pdf http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130123a.htm/). The Bank of Japan also amended “Principal terms and conditions for the Asset Purchase Program” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130122a.pdf): “Asset purchases and loan provision shall be conducted up to the maximum outstanding amounts by the end of 2013. From January 2014, the Bank shall purchase financial assets and provide loans every month, the amount of which shall be determined pursuant to the relevant rules of the Bank.”
Financial markets in Japan and worldwide were shocked by new bold measures of “quantitative and qualitative monetary easing” by the Bank of Japan (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The objective of policy is to “achieve the price stability target of 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) at the earliest possible time, with a time horizon of about two years” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The main elements of the new policy are as follows:
- Monetary Base Control. Most central banks in the world pursue interest rates instead of monetary aggregates, injecting bank reserves to lower interest rates to desired levels. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has shifted back to monetary aggregates, conducting money market operations with the objective of increasing base money, or monetary liabilities of the government, at the annual rate of 60 to 70 trillion yen. The BOJ estimates base money outstanding at “138 trillion yen at end-2012) and plans to increase it to “200 trillion yen at end-2012 and 270 trillion yen at end 2014” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
- Maturity Extension of Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds. Purchases of bonds will be extended even up to bonds with maturity of 40 years with the guideline of extending the average maturity of BOJ bond purchases from three to seven years. The BOJ estimates the current average maturity of Japanese government bonds (JGB) at around seven years. The BOJ plans to purchase about 7.5 trillion yen per month (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130404d.pdf). Takashi Nakamichi, Tatsuo Ito and Phred Dvorak, wiring on “Bank of Japan mounts bid for revival,” on Apr 4, 2013, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323646604578401633067110420.html), find that the limit of maturities of three years on purchases of JGBs was designed to avoid views that the BOJ would finance uncontrolled government deficits.
- Seigniorage. The BOJ is pursuing coordination with the government that will take measures to establish “sustainable fiscal structure with a view to ensuring the credibility of fiscal management” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
- Diversification of Asset Purchases. The BOJ will engage in transactions of exchange traded funds (ETF) and real estate investment trusts (REITS) and not solely on purchases of JGBs. Purchases of ETFs will be at an annual rate of increase of one trillion yen and purchases of REITS at 30 billion yen.
- Bank Lending Facility and Growth Supporting Funding Facility. At the meeting on Feb 18, the Bank of Japan doubled the scale of these lending facilities to prevent their expiration in the near future (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k140218a.pdf).
Table VB-BOJF, Bank of Japan, Forecasts of the Majority of Members of the Policy Board, % Year on Year
| Fiscal Year | Real GDP | CPI All Items Less Fresh Food | Excluding Effects of Consumption Tax Hikes |
| 2013 | |||
| Apr 2014 | +2.2 to +2.3 | +0.8 | |
| Jan 2014 | +2.5 to +2.9 [+2.7] | +0.7 to +0.9 [+0.7] | |
| Oct 2013 | +2.6 to +3.0 [+2.7] | +0.6 to +1.0 [+0.7] | |
| Jul 2013 | +2.5 to +3.0 [+2.8] | +0.5 to +0.8 [+0.6] | |
| 2014 | |||
| Apr 2014 | +0.8 to +1.3 | +3.0 to +3.5 | +1.0 to +1.5 |
| Jan 2014 | +0.9 to 1.5 [+1.4] | +2.9 to +3.6 [+3.3] | +0.9 to +1.6 [+1.3] |
| Oct 2013 | +0.9 to +1.5 [+1.5] | +2.8 to +3.6 [+3.3] | +0.8 to +1.6 [+1.3] |
| Jul 2013 | +0.8 to +1.5 [+1.3] | +2.7 to +3.6 [+3.3] | +0.7 to +1.6 [+1.3] |
| 2015 | |||
| Apr 2014 | +1.2 to +1.5 | +1.9 to +2.8 | +1.2 to +2.1 |
| Jan 2014 | +1.2 to +1.8 [+1.5] | +1.7 to +2.9 [+2.6] | +1.0 to +2.2 [+1.9] |
| Oct 2013 | +1.3 to +1.8 [+1.5] | +1.6 to +2.9 [+2.6] | +0.9 to +2.2 [+1.9] |
| Jul 2013 | +1.3 to +1.9 [+1.5] | +1.6 to +2.9 [+2.6] | +0.9 to +2.2 [+1.9] |
| 2016 | |||
| Apr 2014 | +1.0 to +1.5 | +2.0 to +3.0 | +1.3 to +2.3 |
Figures in brackets are the median of forecasts of Policy Board members
Source: Policy Board, Bank of Japan
https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1404b.pdf
The Markit/JMMA Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI Index™ improved with the Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI™ increasing from 49.4 in Apr to 49.9 in May and the Flash Japan Manufacturing Output Index™ increasing from 46.2 in Apr to 49.2 in May (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/119c7ec318e2469d9afda80921da4f09). New export orders decreased at a faster rate. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds stabilizing conditions after the stress from the increase originating in the Apr increase in sales tax with weakening demand from overseas (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/119c7ec318e2469d9afda80921da4f09). Private-sector activity in Japan contracted with the Markit Composite Output PMI Index increasing from 46.3 in Apr to 49.2 in May, indicating contraction at slower rate (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/1f89e180a434490a8d8eec09bfca6099). Amy Bronwbill, Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds marginal contraction of private sector activity (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/1f89e180a434490a8d8eec09bfca6099). The Markit Business Activity Index of Services increased to 49.3 in May from 46.4 in Apr (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/1f89e180a434490a8d8eec09bfca6099). Amy Brownbill, Ecoomist at Markit and author of the report, finds possible effects from the increase in sales taxes implemented in Apr (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/1f89e180a434490a8d8eec09bfca6099). The Markit/JMMA Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™), seasonally adjusted, increased from 49.4 in Apr to 49.9 in May (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/54e712e12b75470abeb9f27b3442436b). New orders and output fell because of demand effects caused by the sales tax increase in Apr. Amy Brownbill, Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds continuing decline of output and new orders in May but at slower rates of deterioration (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/54e712e12b75470abeb9f27b3442436b).Table JPY provides the country data table for Japan.
Table JPY, Japan, Economic Indicators
| Historical GDP and CPI | 1981-2010 Real GDP Growth and CPI Inflation 1981-2010 |
| Corporate Goods Prices | May ∆% 0.3 |
| Consumer Price Index | Apr NSA ∆% 2.1; Apr 12 months NSA ∆% 3.4 |
| Real GDP Growth | IQ2014 ∆%: 1.6 on IVQ2013; IQ2014 SAAR 6.7; |
| Employment Report | Apr Unemployed 2.54 million Change in unemployed since last year: minus 370 thousand |
| All Industry Indices | Mar month SA ∆% 1.5 Blog 5/25/14 |
| Industrial Production | Apr SA month ∆%: -2.5 |
| Machine Orders | Total Apr ∆% 34.8 Private ∆%: -2.1 Apr ∆% Excluding Volatile Orders -9.1 |
| Tertiary Index | Apr month SA ∆% -5.4 |
| Wholesale and Retail Sales | Apr 12 months: |
| Family Income and Expenditure Survey | Apr 12-month ∆% total nominal consumption -0.7, real -4.6 Blog 6/1/14 |
| Trade Balance | Exports Apr 12 months ∆%: 5.1 Imports Apr 12 months ∆% 3.4 Blog 5/25/14 |
Links to blog comments in Table JPY:
6/1/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-instability-mediocre-cyclical.html
5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html
5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html
4/27/14
3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html
2/23/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html
12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html
11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html
9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html
8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html
Japan’s economy grew 1.6 percent in IQ2014, seasonally adjusted, partly because of anticipation of purchases to avoid the increase in the tax on value added of consumption in Apr 2014, as shown in Table VB-1, incorporating the latest estimates and revisions. The economy of Japan grew 0.1 percent in IVQ2013 after 0.3 percent in IIIQ2013, 0.7 percent in IIQ2013 and 1.3 percent in IQ2013. Japan’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IIIQ2012. IQ2012 GDP growth was revised to 1.0 percent; IIQGDP growth was revised to -0.6 percent; and IIIQ2012 growth was revised to -0.8 percent. The economy of Japan had already weakened in IVQ2010 when GDP fell revised 0.5 percent. As in other advanced economies, Japan’s recovery from the global recession has not been robust. GDP fell 1.8 percent in IQ2011 and fell again 0.8 percent in IIQ2011 because of the disruption of the tragic Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Recovery was robust in the first two quarters of 2010 but GDP grew at 1.5 percent in IIIQ2010 and fell 0.5 percent in IVQ2010. The deepest quarterly contractions in the recession were 3.3 percent in IVQ2008 and 4.0 percent in IQ2009.
Table VB-1, Japan, Real GDP ∆% Changes from the Previous Quarter Seasonally Adjusted ∆%
| IQ | IIQ | IIIQ | IVQ | |
| 2014 | 1.6 | |||
| 2013 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2012 | 1.0 | -0.6 | -0.8 | 0.0 |
| 2011 | -1.8 | -0.8 | 2.6 | 0.2 |
| 2010 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | -0.5 |
| 2009 | -4.0 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 1.7 |
| 2008 | 0.7 | -1.2 | -1.0 | -3.3 |
| 2007 | 1.0 | 0.1 | -0.4 | 0.9 |
| 2006 | 0.4 | 0.4 | -0.1 | 1.3 |
| 2005 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 2004 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.3 |
| 2003 | -0.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| 2002 | -0.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 2001 | 0.6 | -0.2 | -1.1 | -0.1 |
| 2000 | 1.6 | 0.2 | -0.3 | 0.7 |
| 1999 | -0.9 | 0.4 | -0.2 | 0.5 |
| 1998 | -1.9 | -0.5 | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| 1997 | 0.7 | -0.9 | 0.4 | -0.1 |
Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office
http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html
http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
Table VB-2 provides contributions to real GDP at seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR). Japan grew at 6.7 percent in IQ2014 with contribution of 5.5 percentage points of personal consumption expenditures, 4.0 percentage points of gross fixed capital formation and 0.1 percent of government consumption. Trade deducted 1.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2014 and private inventory divestment deducted 2.0 percentage points. Japan’s GDP grew at 0.3 percent annual equivalent in IVQ2013 with growth of personal consumption expenditures of 0.9 percent and GFCF at 1.6 percent. Trade deducted 2.2 percentage points. Japan grew at 1.3 percent in IIIQ 2013 with contribution of 0.5 percentage points by personal consumption and 2.2 percentage points by GFCF. Trade deducted 2.0 percentage points. Japan grew at 2.9 percent SAAR in IIQ2013 driven by contributions of 1.8 percent of personal consumption (PC) and 0.5 percent of net trade and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) at 1.7 percent. In IQ2013, Japan’s GDP increased at the SAAR of 5.3 percent in large part because of 2.6 percent in personal consumption and 1.7 percent in trade. The SAAR of GDP in IVQ2012 was 0.2 percent: 1.1 percentage points from growth of personal consumption expenditures (PC) less 0.5 percentage points of net trade (exports less imports) less 1.0 percentage points of private inventory investment (PINV) plus 0.5 percentage points of government consumption and 0.1 percentage points of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF). The SAAR of GDP in IIIQ2011 was revised to a high 10.8 percent. Net trade deducted from GDP growth in three quarters of 2011 and provided the growth impulse of 3.8 percentage points in IIIQ2011. Growth in 2011 and IQ2012 was driven by personal consumption expenditures that deducted 1.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2012 but added 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2012.
Table VB-2, Japan, Contributions to Changes in Real GDP, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (SAAR), %
| GDP | PC | GFCF | Trade | PINV | GOVC | |
| 2014 | ||||||
| I | 6.7 | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.1 | -2.0 | 0.1 |
| 2013 | ||||||
| I | 5.3 | 2.6 | -0.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| II | 2.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | -1.6 | 0.4 |
| III | 1.3 | 0.5 | 2.2 | -2.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| IV | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | -2.2 | -0.3 | 0.2 |
| 2012 | ||||||
| I | 4.1 | 0.9 | -0.2 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| II | -2.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | -1.3 | -1.9 | -0.5 |
| III | -3.0 | -1.1 | -1.1 | -2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| IV | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.1 | -0.5 | -1.0 | 0.5 |
| 2011 | ||||||
| I | -6.9 | -4.1 | -0.1 | -1.1 | -1.6 | 0.1 |
| II | -3.0 | 2.3 | 0.0 | -4.3 | -1.3 | 0.2 |
| III | 10.8 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.1 |
| IV | 0.9 | 1.4 | 3.3 | -3.0 | -1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2010 | ||||||
| I | 6.1 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | -0.5 |
| II | 4.2 | -0.1 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| III | 6.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| IV | -2.1 | -0.8 | -1.1 | -0.4 | -0.1 | 0.3 |
| 2009 | ||||||
| I | -15.0 | -1.9 | -1.9 | -4.5 | -7.4 | 0.8 |
| II | 7.0 | 4.0 | -3.1 | 7.4 | -2.1 | 0.6 |
| III | 0.3 | 0.0 | -1.4 | 2.2 | -1.5 | 1.0 |
| IV | 7.0 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 2008 | ||||||
| I | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 1.1 | -0.3 | 0.0 |
| II | -4.7 | -3.2 | -2.3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | -0.8 |
| III | -4.1 | -0.5 | -1.0 | 0.1 | -2.6 | 0.0 |
| IV | -12.6 | -2.8 | -4.6 | -11.5 | 5.7 | 0.3 |
| 2007 | ||||||
| I | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| II | 0.5 | 0.6 | -1.5 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.5 |
| III | -1.4 | -1.0 | -1.7 | 2.1 | -0.6 | -0.2 |
| IV | 3.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
Note: PC: Private Consumption; GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation; PINV: Private Inventory; Trade: Net Exports; GOVC: Government Consumption
Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office
http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html
http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
Long-term economic growth in Japan significantly improved by increasing competitiveness in world markets. Net trade of exports and imports is an important component of the GDP accounts of Japan. Table VB-3 provides quarterly data for net trade, exports and imports of Japan. Net trade had strong positive contributions to GDP growth in Japan in all quarters from IQ2007 to IIQ2009 with exception of IVQ2008 and IQ2009. The US recession is dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) as beginning in IVQ2007 (Dec) and ending in IIQ2009 (Jun) (http://www.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html). Net trade contributions helped to cushion the economy of Japan from the global recession. Net trade deducted from GDP growth in seven of the nine quarters from IVQ2010 IQ2012. The only strong contribution of net trade was 3.8 percent in IIIQ2011. Net trade added 1.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2013 and 0.5 percentage points in IIQ2013 but deducted 2.0 percentage points in IIIQ2013 and deducted 2.2 percentage points in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 1.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2014. Private consumption assumed the role of driver of Japan’s economic growth but should moderate as in most mature economies.
Table VB-3, Japan, Contributions to Changes in Real GDP, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (SAAR), %
| Net Trade | Exports | Imports | |
| 2014 | |||
| I | -1.1 | 3.9 | -5.0 |
| 2013 | |||
| I | 1.7 | 2.4 | -0.7 |
| II | 0.5 | 1.7 | -1.2 |
| III | -2.0 | -0.4 | -1.6 |
| IV | -2.2 | 0.3 | -2.5 |
| 2012 | |||
| I | 0.4 | 1.7 | -1.3 |
| II | -1.3 | -0.3 | -0.9 |
| III | -2.2 | -2.4 | 0.2 |
| IV | -0.5 | -1.8 | 1.3 |
| 2011 | |||
| I | -1.1 | -0.4 | -0.7 |
| II | -4.3 | -4.6 | 0.3 |
| III | 3.8 | 5.7 | -1.9 |
| IV | -3.0 | -1.9 | -1.1 |
| 2010 | |||
| I | 2.1 | 3.5 | -1.4 |
| II | 0.1 | 2.6 | -2.6 |
| III | 0.5 | 1.4 | -0.9 |
| IV | -0.4 | 0.1 | -0.5 |
| 2009 | |||
| I | -4.5 | -16.4 | 12.0 |
| II | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.7 |
| III | 2.2 | 5.3 | -3.0 |
| IV | 2.7 | 4.1 | -1.4 |
| 2008 | |||
| I | 1.1 | 2.1 | -1.0 |
| II | 0.5 | -1.6 | 2.1 |
| III | 0.1 | 0.2 | -0.1 |
| IV | -11.5 | -10.2 | -1.2 |
| 2007 | |||
| I | 1.1 | 1.7 | -0.5 |
| II | 0.7 | 1.6 | -0.8 |
| III | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| IV | 1.4 | 2.0 | -0.7 |
Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office
http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html
http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
Japan’s percentage growth of GDP not seasonally adjusted in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier is shown in Table VB-4. Contraction of GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier extended over seven quarters from IIQ2008 through IVQ2009. Contraction was sharpest in IQ2009 with output declining 9.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Yearly quarterly rates of growth of Japan were relatively high for a mature economy through the decade with the exception of the contractions from IVQ2001 to IIQ2002 and after 2007. The Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011 caused flat GDP in IQ2011 at 0.0 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier and decline of 1.5 percent in IIQ2011. GDP fell 0.5 percent in IIIQ2011 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2011 relative to a year earlier. Growth resumed with 3.2 percent in IQ2012 relative to a year earlier. Growth of 3.2 percent in IIQ2012 is largely caused by the low level in IIQ2011 resulting from the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2012 relative to a year earlier and 0.3 percent in IVQ2012 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 1.2 percent in IIQ2013. Growth of 2.3 percent in IIIQ2013 relative to a year earlier is partly due to the decline of 0.8 percent in GDP in IIIQ2012. GDP increased 2.5 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 3.0 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier. Japan faces the challenge of recovery from the devastation of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011 in an environment of declining world trade and bouts of risk aversion that cause appreciation of the Japanese yen that erode the country’s competitiveness in world markets.
Table VB-4, Japan, Real GDP ∆% Changes from Same Quarter Year Earlier, NSA ∆%
| IQ | IIQ | IIIQ | IVQ | |
| 2014 | 3.0 | |||
| 2013 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| 2012 | 3.2 | 3.2 | -0.2 | -0.3 |
| 2011 | 0.0 | -1.5 | -0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2010 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 3.3 |
| 2009 | -9.4 | -6.6 | -5.6 | -0.5 |
| 2008 | 1.4 | -0.1 | -0.6 | -4.7 |
| 2007 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| 2006 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 2.0 |
| 2005 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| 2004 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2003 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| 2002 | -1.6 | -0.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 2001 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.0 | -1.0 |
| 2000 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| 1999 | -0.3 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.5 |
| 1998 | -2.4 | -1.8 | -2.3 | -1.5 |
| 1997 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | -0.2 |
Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office
http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html
http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
Japan’s total machinery orders seasonally adjusted in Table VB-5 increased 34.8 percent seasonally adjusted in Apr 2014. Private sector orders decreased 2.1 percent and decreased 9.1 percent excluding volatile orders. Orders from overseas increased 71.3 percent and manufacturing orders decreased 9.4 percent. Government orders increased 40.5 percent.
Table VB-5, Japan, Machinery Orders, Month ∆%, SA
| 2013-2014 | Apr 14 | Mar 14 | Feb 14 | Jan 14 |
| Total | 34.8 | 4.0 | -3.3 | 8.1 |
| Private Sector | -2.1 | 17.3 | -13.7 | 17.7 |
| Excluding Volatile Orders | -9.1 | 19.1 | -4.6 | 8.1 |
| Manufacturing | -9.4 | 23.7 | -4.6 | 4.9 |
| Non-Manufacturing ex Volatile | 0.9 | 8.5 | -5.1 | 6.1 |
| Government | 40.5 | -18.5 | 4.4 | -7.6 |
| From Overseas | 71.3 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 3.7 |
| Through Agencies | 27.3 | -22.0 | -6.5 | 3.2 |
Note: Mfg: manufacturing
Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office
http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html
Total orders for machinery and total private-sector orders excluding volatile orders for Japan are shown in Chart VB-1 of Japan’s Economic and Social Research Institute at the Cabinet Office. The trend of private-sector orders excluding volatile orders was showing recovery from the drop after Mar 2011 because of the earthquake/tsunami. There was reversal of the trend of increase in total orders with recent decreases and an upward movement in the final data point. Fluctuations still prevent detecting longer-term trends but recovery is still evident from the global recession. There was a major setback by the declines in May 2012 shown in the final segment of Chart VB-1 with partial recovery in Jun 2012, decline again in Jul and Aug 2012 and rebound in total orders in Nov reversed in Dec but decline in orders excluding volatile segments with increase in Nov-Dec 2012. The final segment shows growth in Feb-Mar 2013 interrupted by decline in Apr 2013 followed by increase in May 2013. Orders fell again in Jun 2013, rebounding in Jul-Sep 2013 followed by another fall in Oct 2013. Orders recovered in Nov 2013 but declined in Dec 2013. Orders increased in Jan 2014 and decreased in Feb 2014. Orders increased in Mar-Apr 2014.
Chart VB-1, Japan, Machinery Orders
Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office
http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html
Table VB-6 provides values and percentage changes from a year earlier of Japan’s machinery orders without seasonal adjustment. Total orders of JPY 2,798,619 million in Apr 2014 are divided between JPY 1,463,221 million overseas orders, or 52.3 percent of the total, and domestic orders of JPY 1,243,512 million, or 44.4 percent of the total, with orders through agencies of JPY 91,886 million, or 3.3 percent of the total. Orders through agencies are not in Table VB-6 because of the minor value and appear only in the note to the table. Twelve-month percentages changes in Apr 2014 strengthened with increases of 53.6 percent for total orders and 21.5 percent for domestic orders with increase of 17.6 percent for orders excluding volatile components. Overseas orders increased 101.7 percent in 12 months.
Table VB-6, Japan, Machinery Orders, 12 Months ∆% and Million Yen, Original Series
| Total | Overseas | Domestic | Private ex Volatile | |
| Value Apr 2014 | 2,798,619 | 1,463,221 | 1,243,512 | 817,105 |
| % Total | 100.0 | 52.3 | 44.4 | 29.2 |
| Value Apr 2013 | 1,822,319 | 725,330 | 1,023,151 | 695,071 |
| % Total | 100.0 | 39.8 | 56.1 | 38.1 |
| 12-month ∆% | 53.6 | 101.7 | 21.5 | 17.6 |
| Apr 2014 | 53.6 | 101.7 | 21.5 | 17.6 |
| Mar 2014 | -0.3 | -4.3 | 4.1 | 16.1 |
| Feb 2014 | 20.0 | 31.9 | 12.4 | 10.8 |
| Jan 2014 | 28.8 | 29.8 | 29.0 | 23.6 |
| Dec 2013 | 15.1 | 25.0 | 8.3 | 6.7 |
| Nov 2013 | 8.9 | 1.3 | 14.4 | 16.6 |
| Oct 2013 | 24.6 | 29.7 | 21.4 | 17.8 |
| Sep 2013 | 30.3 | 57.4 | 18.4 | 11.4 |
| Aug 2013 | 25.9 | 41.8 | 17.1 | 10.3 |
| Jul 2013 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 6.9 | 6.5 |
| Jun 2013 | 2.7 | 0.1 | 4.1 | 4.9 |
| May 2013 | 18.1 | 17.1 | 20.8 | 16.5 |
| Apr 2013 | -4.3 | 6.7 | -9.9 | -1.1 |
| Mar 2013 | 11.5 | 27.5 | 3.3 | 2.4 |
| Feb 2013 | -14.8 | -21.0 | -10.7 | -11.3 |
| Jan 2013 | -24.8 | -36.7 | -11.8 | -9.7 |
| Dec 2012 | -12.5 | -24.1 | -3.3 | -3.4 |
| Nov 2012 | -8.6 | -9.6 | -8.5 | 0.3 |
| Oct 2012 | -6.9 | -12.8 | -2.6 | 1.2 |
| Sep 2012 | -7.8 | -18.4 | -1.8 | -7.8 |
| Aug 2012 | -18.6 | -31.1 | -10.2 | -6.1 |
| Jul 2012 | 2.6 | -1.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 |
| Jun 2012 | -10.9 | -11.3 | -12.4 | -9.9 |
| May 2012 | -6.8 | -7.0 | -8.6 | 1.0 |
| Apr 2012 | 7.5 | -9.6 | 23.0 | 6.6 |
| Mar 2012 | 8.1 | -10.0 | 19.0 | -1.1 |
| Feb 2012 | -9.3 | -8.9 | -11.2 | 8.9 |
| Jan 2012 | 9.8 | 18.3 | 0.5 | 5.7 |
| Dec 2011 | 0.8 | 12.6 | -8.5 | 6.3 |
| Nov 2011 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 13.5 | 12.5 |
| Oct 2011 | -6.8 | -15.6 | -1.0 | 1.5 |
| Dec 2010 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 14.1 | -0.6 |
| Dec 2009 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 3.6 | -1.9 |
| Dec 2008 | -23.3 | -29.4 | -17.4 | -24.7 |
| Dec 2007 | 1.3 | 9.8 | -4.3 | -6.4 |
| Dec 2006 | 0.8 | 0.9 | -0.1 | 0.1 |
Note: Total machinery orders = overseas + domestic demand + orders through agencies. Orders through agencies in Apr 2014 were JPY 91,886 million or 3.3 percent of the total and JPY 73,838 or 4.1 percent of the total in Apr 2013, and are not shown in the table. The data are the original numbers without any adjustments and differ from the seasonally adjusted data.
Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office
http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html
The tertiary activity index of Japan decreased 5.4 percent SA in Apr 2014 and decreased 2.5 percent NSA in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014, as shown in Table VB-7, because of the increase in the tax on value added of consumption in Apr 2014. The index is showing significant volatility with increases of 0.5 percent in Feb 2013 and 0.5 percent in May 2013 but decreases in multiple months. The indexed increased 2.4 percent in Mar 2014 largely because of anticipation of expenditures to avoid the increase in the tax on consumption in Apr 2014. The tertiary activity index fell 5.2 percent in 2009, growing 1.3 percent in 2010, 0.1 percent in 2011 and 1.4 percent in 2012. The tertiary activity index increased 0.7 percent in 2013.
Table VB-7, Japan, Tertiary Activity Index, ∆%
| Month ∆% SA | 12 Months ∆% NSA | |
| Apr 2014 | -5.4 | -2.5 |
| Mar | 2.4 | 3.0 |
| Feb | -0.9 | 0.9 |
| Jan | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Dec 2013 | -0.1 | 0.8 |
| Nov | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Oct | -0.5 | 0.1 |
| Sep | 0.1 | 1.4 |
| Aug | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Jul | -0.1 | 1.5 |
| Jun | -0.3 | 0.6 |
| May | 0.5 | 1.8 |
| Apr | -0.1 | 1.5 |
| Mar | 0.1 | 0.7 |
| Feb | 0.5 | -1.5 |
| Jan | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| Dec 2012 | 0.2 | -0.1 |
| Nov | -0.1 | 1.0 |
| Oct | 0.2 | 1.3 |
| Sep | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Aug | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Jul | -0.3 | 0.8 |
| Jun | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| May | 0.5 | 3.1 |
| Apr | -0.2 | 2.4 |
| Mar | -0.3 | 4.2 |
| Feb | 0.2 | 2.4 |
| Jan | -0.8 | 0.3 |
| Calendar Year | ||
| 2013 | 0.7 | |
| 2012 | 1.4 | |
| 2011 | 0.1 | |
| 2010 | 1.3 | |
| 2009 | -5.2 | |
| 2008 | -1.0 | |
| 2007 | 1.0 | |
| 2006 | 1.8 | |
| 2005 | 1.9 | |
| 2004 | 1.8 |
Source: Japan, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry http://www.meti.go.jp/english/statistics/index.html
Month and 12-month rates of growth of the tertiary activity index of Japan and components in Apr 2014 are provided in Table VB-8. Electricity, gas, heat supply and water decreased 3.2 percent in Apr 2014 and decreased 1.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014. Wholesale and retail trade decreased 14.6 percent in the month of Apr because of the increase in the tax on value added of consumption and decreased 7.4 percent in 12 months. Information and communications decreased 2.6 percent in Apr and decreased 0.7 percent in 12 months.
Table VB-8, Japan, Tertiary Index and Components, Month and 12-Month Percentage Changes ∆%
| Apr 2014 | Weight | Month ∆% SA | 12 Months ∆% NSA |
| Tertiary Index | 10,000.0 | -5.4 | -2.5 |
| Electricity, Gas, Heat Supply & Water | 372.9 | -3.2 | -1.2 |
| Information & Communications | 951.2 | -2.6 | -0.7 |
| Wholesale & Retail Trade | 2,641.2 | -14.6 | -7.4 |
| Finance & Insurance | 971.1 | -3.9 | -5.6 |
| Real Estate & Goods Rental & Leasing | 903.4 | -1.3 | -2.0 |
| Scientific Research, Professional & Technical Services | 551.3 | 3.7 | 0.9 |
| Accommodations, Eating, Drinking | 496.0 | -2.0 | -1.0 |
| Living-Related, Personal, Amusement Services | 552.7 | -6.2 | -0.7 |
| Learning Support | 116.9 | -0.6 | -0.9 |
| Medical, Health Care, Welfare | 921.1 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Miscellaneous ex Government | 626.7 | -6.7 | -3.3 |
Source: Japan, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI)
http://www.meti.go.jp/english/statistics/index.html
VC China. China estimates an index of nonmanufacturing purchasing managers based on a sample of 1200 nonmanufacturing enterprises across the country (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Table CIPMNM provides this index and components. The total index increased from 55.7 in Jan 2011 to 58.0 in Mar 2012, decreasing to 53.9 in Aug 2013. The index decreased from 56.0 in Nov 2013 to 54.6 in Dec 2013, easing to 53.4 in Jan 2014. The index increased to 55.5 in May 2014. The index of new orders increased from 52.2 in Jan 2012 to 54.3 in Dec 2012 but fell to 50.1 in May 2013, barely above the neutral frontier of 50.0. The index of new orders stabilized at 51.0 in Nov-Dec 2013, easing to 50.9 in Jan 2014. The index of new orders increased to 52.7 in May 2014.
Table CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted
| Total Index | New Orders | Interm. | Subs Prices | Exp | |
| May 2014 | 55.5 | 52.7 | 54.5 | 49.0 | 60.7 |
| Apr | 54.8 | 50.8 | 52.4 | 49.4 | 61.5 |
| Mar | 54.5 | 50.8 | 52.8 | 49.5 | 61.5 |
| Feb | 55.0 | 51.4 | 52.1 | 49.0 | 59.9 |
| Jan | 53.4 | 50.9 | 54.5 | 50.1 | 58.1 |
| Dec 2013 | 54.6 | 51.0 | 56.9 | 52.0 | 58.7 |
| Nov | 56.0 | 51.0 | 54.8 | 49.5 | 61.3 |
| Oct | 56.3 | 51.6 | 56.1 | 51.4 | 60.5 |
| Sep | 55.4 | 53.4 | 56.7 | 50.6 | 60.1 |
| Aug | 53.9 | 50.9 | 57.1 | 51.2 | 62.9 |
| Jul | 54.1 | 50.3 | 58.2 | 52.4 | 63.9 |
| Jun | 53.9 | 50.3 | 55.0 | 50.6 | 61.8 |
| May | 54.3 | 50.1 | 54.4 | 50.7 | 62.9 |
| Apr | 54.5 | 50.9 | 51.1 | 47.6 | 62.5 |
| Mar | 55.6 | 52.0 | 55.3 | 50.0 | 62.4 |
| Feb | 54.5 | 51.8 | 56.2 | 51.1 | 62.7 |
| Jan | 56.2 | 53.7 | 58.2 | 50.9 | 61.4 |
| Dec 2012 | 56.1 | 54.3 | 53.8 | 50.0 | 64.6 |
| Nov | 55.6 | 53.2 | 52.5 | 48.4 | 64.6 |
| Oct | 55.5 | 51.6 | 58.1 | 50.5 | 63.4 |
| Sep | 53.7 | 51.8 | 57.5 | 51.3 | 60.9 |
| Aug | 56.3 | 52.7 | 57.6 | 51.2 | 63.2 |
| Jul | 55.6 | 53.2 | 49.7 | 48.7 | 63.9 |
| Jun | 56.7 | 53.7 | 52.1 | 48.6 | 65.5 |
| May | 55.2 | 52.5 | 53.6 | 48.5 | 65.4 |
| Apr | 56.1 | 52.7 | 57.9 | 50.3 | 66.1 |
| Mar | 58.0 | 53.5 | 60.2 | 52.0 | 66.6 |
| Feb | 57.3 | 52.7 | 59.0 | 51.2 | 63.8 |
| Jan | 55.7 | 52.2 | 58.2 | 51.1 | 65.3 |
Notes: Interm.: Intermediate; Subs: Subscription; Exp: Business Expectations
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Chart CIPMNM provides China’s nonmanufacturing purchasing managers’ index. The index fell from 56.1 in Dec 2012 to 53.9 in Jun 2013. The index recovered to 56.3 in Oct 2013, decreasing marginally to 54.6 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 53.4 in Jan 2014, increasing to 55.5 in May 2014.
Chart CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Table CIPMMFG provides the index of purchasing managers of manufacturing seasonally adjusted of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The general index (IPM) rose from 50.5 in Jan 2012 to 53.3 in Apr 2012, falling to 49.2 in Aug 2012, rebounding to 50.6 in Dec 2012. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013, barely above the neutral frontier at 50.0, recovering to 51.4 in Nov 2013 but falling to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.5 in Jan 2014 and 50.8 in May 2014. The index of new orders fell from 57.2 in Apr 2012 to 52.0 in Dec 2012. The index of new orders fell from 54.5 in Nov 2013 to 53.9 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 53.0 in Jan 2014 and 52.3 in May 2014.
Table CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted
| IPM | PI | NOI | INV | EMP | SDEL | |
| May 2014 | 50.8 | 52.8 | 52.3 | 48.0 | 48.2 | 50.3 |
| Apr | 50.4 | 52.5 | 51.2 | 48.1 | 48.3 | 50.1 |
| Mar | 50.3 | 52.7 | 50.6 | 47.8 | 48.3 | 49.8 |
| Feb | 50.2 | 52.6 | 50.5 | 47.4 | 48.0 | 49.9 |
| Jan | 50.5 | 53.0 | 50.9 | 47.8 | 48.2 | 49.8 |
| Dec 2013 | 51.0 | 53.9 | 52.0 | 47.6 | 48.7 | 50.5 |
| Nov | 51.4 | 54.5 | 52.3 | 47.8 | 49.6 | 50.6 |
| Oct | 51.4 | 54.4 | 52.5 | 48.6 | 49.2 | 50.8 |
| Sep | 51.1 | 52.9 | 52.8 | 48.5 | 49.1 | 50.8 |
| Aug | 51.0 | 52.6 | 52.4 | 48.0 | 49.3 | 50.4 |
| Jul | 50.3 | 52.4 | 50.6 | 47.6 | 49.1 | 50.1 |
| Jun | 50.1 | 52.0 | 50.4 | 47.4 | 48.7 | 50.3 |
| May | 50.8 | 53.3 | 51.8 | 47.6 | 48.8 | 50.8 |
| Apr | 50.6 | 52.6 | 51.7 | 47.5 | 49.0 | 50.8 |
| Mar | 50.9 | 52.7 | 52.3 | 47.5 | 49.8 | 51.1 |
| Feb | 50.1 | 51.2 | 50.1 | 49.5 | 47.6 | 48.3 |
| Jan | 50.4 | 51.3 | 51.6 | 50.1 | 47.8 | 50.0 |
| Dec 2012 | 50.6 | 52.0 | 51.2 | 47.3 | 49.0 | 48.8 |
| Nov | 50.6 | 52.5 | 51.2 | 47.9 | 48.7 | 49.9 |
| Oct | 50.2 | 52.1 | 50.4 | 47.3 | 49.2 | 50.1 |
| Sep | 49.8 | 51.3 | 49.8 | 47.0 | 48.9 | 49.5 |
| Aug | 49.2 | 50.9 | 48.7 | 45.1 | 49.1 | 50.0 |
| Jul | 50.1 | 51.8 | 49.0 | 48.5 | 49.5 | 49.0 |
| Jun | 50.2 | 52.0 | 49.2 | 48.2 | 49.7 | 49.1 |
| May | 50.4 | 52.9 | 49.8 | 45.1 | 50.5 | 49.0 |
| Apr | 53.3 | 57.2 | 54.5 | 48.5 | 51.0 | 49.6 |
| Mar | 53.1 | 55.2 | 55.1 | 49.5 | 51.0 | 48.9 |
| Feb | 51.0 | 53.8 | 51.0 | 48.8 | 49.5 | 50.3 |
| Jan | 50.5 | 53.6 | 50.4 | 49.7 | 47.1 | 49.7 |
IPM: Index of Purchasing Managers; PI: Production Index; NOI: New Orders Index; EMP: Employed Person Index; SDEL: Supplier Delivery Time Index
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
China estimates the manufacturing index of purchasing managers on the basis of a sample of 820 enterprises (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Chart CIPMMFG provides the manufacturing index of purchasing managers. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013. The index decreased from 51.4 in Nov 2013 to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index eased to 50.8 in May 2014.
Chart CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Cumulative growth of China’s GDP in IQ2014 relative to the same period in 2013 was 7.4 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDP. Secondary industry accounts for 44.9 percent of GDP in IQ2014. In IQ2014, industry alone accounts for 39.9 percent of GDP and construction with the remaining 5.0 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 49.0 percent of cumulative GDP in IQ2014 and primary industry for 6.1 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is shifting to lower growth rates with improvement in living standards. The bottom block of Table VC-GDP provides quarter-on-quarter growth rates of GDP and their annual equivalent. China’s GDP growth decelerated significantly from annual equivalent 10.4 percent in IIQ2011 to 7.4 percent in IVQ2011 and 5.7 percent in IQ2012, rebounding to 8.7 percent in IIQ2012, 8.2 percent in IIIQ2012 and 7.8 percent in IVQ2012. Annual equivalent growth in IQ2013 fell to 6.1 percent and to 7.4 percent in IIQ2013, rebounding to 9.5 percent in IIIQ2013. Annual equivalent growth was 7.0 percent in IVQ2013, declining to 5.7 percent in IQ2014.
Table VC-GDP, China, Quarterly Growth of GDP, Current CNY 100 Million and Inflation Adjusted ∆%
| Cumulative GDP IQ2014 | Value Current CNY Billion | 2014 Year-on-Year Constant Prices ∆% |
| GDP | 12,821.3 | 7.4 |
| Primary Industry | 777.6 | 3.5 |
| Farming | 777.6 | 3.5 |
| Secondary Industry | 5,758.7 | 7.3 |
| Industry | 5,121.7 | 7.1 |
| Construction | 637.0 | 9.3 |
| Tertiary Industry | 6,285.0 | 7.8 |
| Transport, Storage, Post | 691.7 | 5.7 |
| Wholesale, Retail Trades | 1,298.2 | 9.8 |
| Hotel & Catering Services | 266.8 | 5.9 |
| Financial Intermediation | 929.1 | 9.5 |
| Real Estate | 880.5 | 3.0 |
| Other | 2,218.7 | 8.9 |
| Growth in Quarter Relative to Prior Quarter | ∆% on Prior Quarter | ∆% Annual Equivalent |
| 2014 | ||
| IQ2014 | 1.4 | 5.7 |
| 2013 | ||
| IVQ2013 | 1.7 | 7.0 |
| IIIQ2013 | 2.3 | 9.5 |
| IIQ2013 | 1.8 | 7.4 |
| IQ2013 | 1.5 | 6.1 |
| 2012 | ||
| IVQ2012 | 1.9 | 7.8 |
| IIIQ2012 | 2.0 | 8.2 |
| IIQ2012 | 2.1 | 8.7 |
| IQ2012 | 1.4 | 5.7 |
| 2011 | ||
| IVQ2011 | 1.8 | 7.4 |
| IIIQ2011 | 2.2 | 9.1 |
| IIQ2011 | 2.5 | 10.4 |
| IQ2011 | 2.3 | 9.5 |
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Growth of China’s GDP in IQ2014 relative to the same period in 2013 was 7.4 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDPA. Secondary industry accounts for 44.9 percent of GDP of which industry alone for 39.9 percent in cumulative IQ2014 and construction with the remaining 5.0 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 49.0 percent of GDP in cumulative IQ2014 and primary industry for 6.1 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is changing to lower growth rates while improving living standards. GDP growth decelerated from 12.1 percent in IQ2010 and 11.2 percent in IIQ2010 to 7.7 percent in IQ2013, 7.5 percent in IIQ2013 and 7.8 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP grew 7.4 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 1.7 percent relative to IIIQ2013, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent per year. GDP grew 7.4 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.4 percent in IQ2014 that is equivalent to 5.7 percent per year.
Table VC-GDPA, China, Growth Rate of GDP, ∆% Relative to a Year Earlier and ∆% Relative to Prior Quarter
| IQ 2013 | IIQ 2013 | IIIQ 2013 | IVQ 2013 | IQ 2014 | ||||
| GDP | 7.7 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 7.4 | |||
| Primary Industry | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 3.5 | |||
| Secondary Industry | 7.8 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.3 | |||
| Tertiary Industry | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 7.1 | |||
| GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.4 | |||
| IQ 2011 | IIQ 2011 | IIIQ 2011 | IVQ 2011 | IQ 2012 | IIQ 2012 | IIIQ 2012 | IVQ 2012 | |
| GDP | 9.7 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 7.9 |
| Primary Industry | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.5 |
| Secondary Industry | 11.1 | 11.0 | 10.8 | 10.6 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 8.1 |
| Tertiary Industry | 9.1 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 8.1 |
| GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| IQ 2010 | IIQ 2010 | IIIQ 2010 | IVQ 2010 | |||||
| GDP | 12.1 | 11.2 | 10.7 | 12.1 | ||||
| Primary Industry | 3.8 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 3.8 | ||||
| Secondary Industry | 14.5 | 13.3 | 12.6 | 14.5 | ||||
| Tertiary Industry | 10.5 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 10.5 |
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Chart VC-GDP of the National Bureau of Statistics of China provides annual value and growth rates of GDP. China’s GDP growth in 2013 is still high at 7.7 percent but at the lowest rhythm in five years.
Chart VC-GDP, China, Gross Domestic Product, Million Yuan and ∆%, 2009-2013
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Chart VC-FXR provides China’s foreign exchange reserves. FX reserves grew from $2399.2 billion in 2009 to $3821.3 billion in 2013 driven by high growth of China’s trade surplus.
Chart VC-FXR, China, Foreign Exchange Reserves, 2009-2013
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english
Chart VC-Trade provides China’s imports and exports. Exports exceeded imports with resulting large trade balance surpluses that increased foreign exchange reserves.
Chart VC-Trade, China, Imports and Exports of Goods, 2009-2013, $100 Million US Dollars
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english
The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) compiled by Markit (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4c63770d8c2c4bdaacecda6d436d4cbf) is stabilizing. The overall Flash HSBC China Manufacturing PMI™ increased from 48.1 in Apr to 49.7 in May, while the Flash HSBC China Manufacturing Output Index increased from 47.9 in Apr to 50.3 in May, indicating moderate expansion. Exports orders changed direction to expansion. Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds that the index is consistent with manufacturing stabilizing at weak levels, requiring policy to stabilize growth in the rest of the year (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4c63770d8c2c4bdaacecda6d436d4cbf). The HSBC China Services PMI™, compiled by Markit, shows marginal improvement in business activity in China with the HSBC Composite Output, combining manufacturing and services, increasing from 49.5 in Apr to 50.2 in May (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e0afee6e04114be2824bfd243cd53726). Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds need of policies to prevent decelerating growth (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e0afee6e04114be2824bfd243cd53726). The HSBC Business Activity index decreased from 51.4 in Apr to 50.7 in May (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e0afee6e04114be2824bfd243cd53726). Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds that services continue improving with relatively slow growth impulse (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e0afee6e04114be2824bfd243cd53726). The HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™), compiled by Markit, increased to 49.4 in May from 48.1 in Apr, indicating marginally deteriorating manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/57b7604739e14658a53ec5462db5cb36). New export orders increased at the fastest rate since Apr 2010 with unchanged total new orders. Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds possible stability of demand in China with possible and need of policy enhancement (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/57b7604739e14658a53ec5462db5cb36). Table CNY provides the country data table for China.
Table CNY, China, Economic Indicators
| Price Indexes for Industry | May 12-month ∆%: minus 1,4 May month ∆%: -0.1 |
| Consumer Price Index | May month ∆%: 0.1 May 12 months ∆%: 2.5 |
| Value Added of Industry | May month ∆%: 0.71 Jan-May 2014/Jan-Apr 2013 ∆%: 8.7 |
| GDP Growth Rate | Year IQ2014 ∆%: 7.4 |
| Investment in Fixed Assets | Total Jan-May 2013 ∆%: 17.2 Real estate development: 14.7 |
| Retail Sales | May month ∆%: 1.16 Jan-May ∆%: 12.1 |
| Trade Balance | May balance $35.92 billion Cumulative Jan-May: $71.11 billion |
Links to blog comments in Table CNY:
4/20/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/imf-view-world-inflation-waves-squeeze.html
Cumulative and 12-months rates of value added of industry in China are provided in Table VC-1. Value added of industry grew 8.7 percent in Jan-May 2014 relative to a year earlier and 8.8 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing grew 9.9 percent in Jan-May 2014 relative to a year earlier and 9.9 percent in 12 months. Mining and quarrying grew 3.8 percent in Jan-May 2014 relative to a year earlier and 4.3 percent in 12 months. Industry’s value added grew 8.6 percent in Jan-Apr 2014 relative to a year earlier and 8.7 percent in 12 months. Mining and quarrying, or light industry, increased 3.6 percent in Jan-Apr 2014 relative to a year earlier and 4.5 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing or heavy industry increased 9.9 percent in Jan-Apr 2014 relative to a year earlier and 9.8 percent in 12 months. Industry’s value added increased 8.7 percent in Jan-Mar 2014 relative to a year earlier and 8.8 percent in 12 months. Light industry increased 3.3 percent in Jan-Mar 2014 relative to a year earlier, manufacturing 9.9 percent, state-owned enterprises 4.5 percent and joint-stock companies 10.0 percent. Value added of industry increased 8.6 percent in Jan-Feb 2014 relative to a year earlier with weakness partially because of holidays of the Chinese Lunar New Year. Value added of industry increased 9.7 percent in Jan-Dec 2013 relative to a year earlier and 9.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013. Industry’s value added increased 9.7 percent in Jan-Nov 2013 and 10.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2013. Industry’s value added increased 9.7 percent in Jan-Oct 2013 relative to the same period a year earlier and 10.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2013. Value added in total industry increased 9.6 in Jan-Sep 2013 relative to a year earlier and 10.2 percent in 12 months. Value added in total industry in Jan-Aug 2013 increased 9.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Heavy industry (manufacturing) had been the driver of growth with a cumulative rate of 10.0 percent relative to a year earlier in Jan-Mar 2012 that declined to 10.5 percent in Jan-Apr 2012 relative to the same period a year earlier and further down to 10.1 percent in Jan-Jun 2012. Growth of heavy industry was 9.9 percent in Jan-Jul 2012, 9.8 percent in Jan-Aug 2012, 9.7 percent in Jan-Sep 2012, 9.7 percent in Jan-Oct 2012, 9.8 percent in Jan-Nov 2012, 9.9 percent in Jan-Dec 2012, 10.2 percent in Jan-Feb 2013. Growth of heavy industry was 9.8 percent in Jan-Mar 2013, 9.7 percent in Jan-Apr 2013, 9.7 percent in Jan-May 2013, 10.0 percent in Jan-Jun 2013, 10.1 percent in Jan-Jul 2013 and 10.2 percent in Jan-Aug 2013. The rate for heavy industry increased marginally to 10.3 percent in Jan-Sep 2013. Heavy industry grew 10.5 percent in Jan-Dec 2013 and 10.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013. Light industry (mining and quarrying) grew 6.4 percent in Jan-Dec 2013 relative to a year earlier. Growth of total industry decelerated from cumulative 14.4 percent in Jan-Mar 2011 to 9.7 percent in Jan-Dec 2013 and 8.7 percent in Jan-Apr 2014.
Table VC-1, China, Growth Rate of Value Added of Industry ∆%
| Industry | Mining & Quarrying | Manufacturing | State | Joint-Stock | |
| 2014 | |||||
| Jan-May | 8.7 | 3.8 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 10.1 |
| 12M May | 8.8 | 4.3 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 10.3 |
| Jan-Apr | 8.7 | 3.6 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 10.1 |
| 12M Apr | 8.7 | 4.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 10.3 |
| Jan-Mar | 8.7 | 3.3 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 10.0 |
| 12 M Mar | 8.8 | 2.9 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 10.1 |
| Jan-Feb | 8.6 | 3.5 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 9.9 |
| 2013 | |||||
| Jan-Dec | 9.7 | 6.4 | 10.5 | 6.9 | 11.0 |
| 12M Dec | 9.7 | 5.4 | 10.7 | 8.3 | 10.8 |
| Jan-Nov | 9.7 | 6.4 | 10.5 | 6.8 | 4.4 |
| 12M Nov | 10.0 | 5.6 | 11.0 | 9.1 | 2.4 |
| Jan-Oct | 9.7 | 6.5 | 10.4 | 6.5 | 11.0 |
| 12M Oct | 10.3 | 4.3 | 11.4 | 8.4 | 11.1 |
| Jan-Sep | 9.6 | 6.7 | 10.3 | 6.3 | 11.0 |
| 12M Sep | 10.2 | 4.9 | 11.1 | 7.8 | 11.1 |
| Jan-Aug | 9.5 | 6.9 | 10.2 | 6.1 | 11.0 |
| 12M Aug | 10.4 | 5.8 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 11.7 |
| Jan-Jul | 9.4 | 7.1 | 10.1 | 5.6 | 10.9 |
| 12M Jun | 9.7 | 5.5 | 10.5 | 8.1 | 11.1 |
| Jan-Jun | 9.3 | 7.3 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 10.9 |
| 12M Jun | 8.9 | 5.8 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 10.5 |
| Jan-May | 9.4 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 11.0 |
| 12M May | 9.2 | 8.0 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 10.7 |
| Jan-Apr | 9.4 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 11.1 |
| 12 M Apr | 9.3 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 10.9 |
| Jan-Mar | 9.5 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 11.3 |
| 12 M Mar | 8.9 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 11.0 |
| Jan-Feb | 9.9 | 9.1 | 10.2 | 5.8 | 11.4 |
| 2012 | |||||
| Jan-Dec 2012 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 11.8 |
| 12 M Dec | 10.3 | 9.6 | 10.6 | 8.0 | 12.1 |
| Jan-Nov | 10.0 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 11.8 |
| 12 M Nov | 10.1 | 9.2 | 10.5 | 7.2 | 11.8 |
| Jan-Oct | 10.0 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 6.4 | 11.8 |
| 12 M Oct | 9.6 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 7.0 | 11.7 |
| Jan-Sep | 10.0 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 6.3 | 11.8 |
| 12 M Sep | 9.2 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 11.0 |
| Jan-Aug | 10.1 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 15.4 |
| 12 M Aug | 8.9 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 14.3 |
| Jan-Jul | 10.3 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 12.1 |
| 12 M Jul | 9.2 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 10.9 |
| Jan-Jun | 10.5 | 11.1 | 10.1 | 7.0 | 12.4 |
| 12 M Jun | 9.5 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 11.5 |
| Jan-May | 10.7 | 11.5 | 10.3 | 6.7 | 12.4 |
| 12 M May | 9.6 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 6.6 | 11.0 |
| Jan-Apr | 11.0 | 12.3 | 10.5 | 6.6 | 12.9 |
| 12 M Apr | 9.3 | 10.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 10.7 |
| Jan-Mar | 11.6 | 13.2 | 11.0 | 7.2 | 13.8 |
| 12 M Mar | 11.9 | 13.9 | 11.2 | 8.0 | 13.7 |
| Jan-Feb | 11.4 | 12.7 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 13.9 |
| 2011 | |||||
| Jan-Dec | 13.9 | 13.0 | 14.3 | 9.9 | 15.8 |
| 12 M Dec | 12.8 | 12.6 | 13.0 | 9.2 | 14.7 |
| Jan-Nov | 14.0 | 13.0 | 14.4 | 9.9 | 16.0 |
| 12 M Nov | 12.4 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 14.4 |
| Jan-Oct | 14.1 | 13.0 | 14.5 | 10.1 | 9.1 |
| 12 M Oct | 13.2 | 12.1 | 13.7 | 8.9 | 15.1 |
| Jan-Sep | 14.2 | 13.1 | 14.6 | 10.4 | 16.1 |
| 12 M Sep | 13.8 | 12.8 | 14.3 | 9.9 | 16.0 |
| Jan-Aug | 14.2 | 13.1 | 14.6 | 10.4 | 16.1 |
| 12 M Aug | 13.5 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 9.4 | 15.5 |
| Jan-Jul | 14.3 | ||||
| 12 M | 14.0 | 12.8 | 14.5 | 9.5 | |
| Jan-Jun | 14.3 | 13.1 | 14.7 | 10.7 | 19.7 |
| 12 M | 15.1 | 13.9 | 15.6 | 10.7 | 20.8 |
| Jan-May | 14.0 | 12.9 | 14.4 | 10.7 | 19.3 |
| 12 M May | 13.3 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 8.9 | 18.7 |
| Jan-Apr | 14.2 | 12.9 | 14.7 | 11.2 | 19.5 |
| 12 M Apr | 13.4 | 11.9 | 14.0 | 10.4 | 18.0 |
| Jan-Mar | 14.4 | 13.1 | 14.9 | 11.4 | 19.8 |
| 12 M Mar | 14.8 | 12.8 | 15.6 | 12.9 | 19.2 |
| 12 M Feb | 14.9 | 13.1 | 15.6 | 10.5 | 21.7 |
| Jan-Feb | 14.1 | 13.3 | 14.4 | 10.6 | 20.3 |
*After Jun 2013 Heavy Industry is Manufacturing and Light Industry is Mining and Quarrying
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Chart VC-1 provides 12-month percentage changes of value added of industry in China. The yearly rate of industry fell from 10.4 percent in Aug 2013 to 8.8 percent in May 2014.
Chart VC-1, China, Growth Rate of Total Value Added of Industry, 12-Month ∆%
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Yearly rates of growth for the past 12 months and cumulative relative to the earlier year of various segments of industrial production in China are provided in Table VC-2. There is deceleration of 5.7 percent of electricity output in Jan-May 2014 relative to a year earlier. There are weaker readings in most segments with exception of 10.8 percent for autos. Rates from Jan to Dec 2011 relative to the same period a year earlier fluctuated but remained mostly above 10 percent with the exception of motor vehicles and crude oil. There is deceleration in Jan-Dec 2012 of percentage change with no segment showing growth exceeding 10 percent with exception of 12-month growth of 13.5 percent for pig iron and 16.7 percent for nonferrous metals. In Jan-Sep 2013, many segments grew at rates exceeding or around 10 percent with exception of electricity at 6.8 percent, crude oil at 4.2 percent and pig iron at 6.9 percent. Electricity fell from growth of 16.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2011 to 0.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2012, rebounding to 4.8 percent in Aug 2012 but declining to 1.5 percent in Sep 2012, increasing to 3.9 percent in Oct 2012, 7.9 percent in Nov 2012 and 7.6 percent in Dec 2012. Electricity grew 6.8 percent in Jan-Jul 2013 relative to a year earlier and increased 8.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2013. Electricity output increased 7.6 percent in Jan-Dec 2013 relative to a year earlier and 8.3 percent in 12 months ending in Dec 2013. Auto production jumped to 18.4 percent in Jan-Dec 2013 relative to a year earlier and 22.8 percent in 12 months ending in Dec 2013.
Table VC-2, China, Industrial Production Operation ∆%
| Elec- | Pig Iron | Cement | Crude | Non- | Autos | |
| 2014 | ||||||
| Jan-May | 5.7 | 0.2 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 4.9 | 10.8 |
| 12 M May | 5.9 | 0.2 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 12.2 |
| Jan-Apr | 5.6 | 0.2 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 5.4 | 8.3 |
| 12 M Apr | 4.4 | -0.8 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 7.9 |
| Jan-Mar | 5.8 | 0.1 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 6.7 | 10.8 |
| 12 M Mar | 6.2 | -0.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 7.1 | 7.3 |
| Jan-Feb | 5.5 | 0.2 | 2.4 | -1.0 | 6.1 | 12.5 |
| 2013 | ||||||
| Jan-Dec | 7.6 | 6.2 | 9.6 | 3.3 | 9.9 | 18.4 |
| 12M Dec | 8.3 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 22.8 |
| Jan-Nov | 7.0 | 5.9 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 10.5 | 18.1 |
| 12M Nov | 6.8 | 0.6 | 10.0 | -0.6 | 13.7 | 25.6 |
| Jan-Oct | 7.0 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 10.3 | 17.2 |
| 12M Oct | 8.4 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 12.9 | 25.5 |
| Jan-Sep | 6.8 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 9.8 | 15.3 |
| 12M Sep | 8.2 | 11.2 | 6.4 | -1.2 | 10.1 | 17.5 |
| Jan-Aug | 6.4 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 9.7 | 15.1 |
| 12M Aug | 13.4 | 11.1 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 14.8 |
| Jan-Jul | 5.2 | 6.0 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 10.3 | 15.1 |
| 12 M Jul | 8.1 | 5.0 | 9.1 | 7.1 | 9.8 | 15.4 |
| Jan-Jun | 4.4 | 5.7 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 10.0 | 15.2 |
| 12 M Jun | 6.0 | 2.9 | 8.8 | 10.8 | 6.7 | 13.5 |
| Jan-May | 4.0 | 10.8 | 8.9 | 2.9 | 10.9 | 15.4 |
| 12 M May | 4.1 | 11.3 | 8.5 | 2.4 | 7.5 | 15.7 |
| Jan-Apr | 3.8 | 10.5 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 11.4 | 15.4 |
| 12 M Apr | 6.2 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 2.5 | 10.3 | 18.3 |
| Jan-Mar | 2.9 | 12.3 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 10.6 | 13.5 |
| 12 M Mar | 2.1 | 9.2 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 9.9 | 12.4 |
| Jan-Feb | 3.4 | 14.2 | 10.8 | 3.0 | 13.5 | 12.4 |
| 2012 | ||||||
| Jan-Dec | 4.7 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 9.3 | 6.3 |
| 12 M Dec | 7.6 | 13.5 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 16.7 | 5.3 |
| Jan-Nov | 4.4 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 8.4 | 6.5 |
| 12 M Nov | 7.9 | 16.5 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 15.2 | 3.9 |
| Jan-Oct | 3.9 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 7.7 | 6.9 |
| 12 M Oct | 6.4 | 11.7 | 11.5 | 6.7 | 14.0 | 3.8 |
| Jan-Sep | 3.6 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 7.1 | 7.3 |
| 12 M Sep | 1.5 | 4.9 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 6.3 |
| Jan-Aug | 3.8 | -0.5 | 8.7 | 2.5 | 13.8 | 10.4 |
| 12 M Aug | 4.8 | 2.6 | 5.9 | -0.4 | 13.8 | 9.7 |
| Jan-Jul | 3.8 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 6.7 | 7.4 |
| 12M Jul | 2.1 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 1.1 | 4.1 | 12.3 |
| Jan-Jun | 3.7 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 |
| 12 M Jun | 0.0 | 6.7 | 6.5 | -0.6 | 5.8 | 13.8 |
| Jan-May | 4.7 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 5.1 | 6.2 |
| 12 M May | 2.7 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 6.6 | 18.5 |
| Jan-Apr | 5.0 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 3.1 |
| 12 M Apr | 0.7 | 7.9 | 4.9 | -0.3 | 2.3 | 10.7 |
| Jan-Mar | 7.1 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 5.8 | 0.0 |
| 12 M Mar | 7.2 | 10.2 | 7.9 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 5.1 |
| Jan-Feb | 7.1 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 8.4 | -1.8 |
| 2011 | ||||||
| Jan-Dec | 12.0 | 8.4 | 16.1 | 4.9 | 10.6 | 3.0 |
| 12 M Dec | 9.7 | 3.7 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 13.2 | -6.5 |
| Jan-Nov | 12.0 | 13.1 | 17.2 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 3.9 |
| 12 M Nov | 8.5 | 7.8 | 11.2 | 3.2 | 8.2 | -1.3 |
| Jan-Oct | 12.3 | 13.7 | 18.0 | 5.4 | 10.4 | 5.2 |
| 12 M | 9.3 | 13.4 | 16.5 | -0.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 |
| Jan-Sep | 12.7 | 13.9 | 18.1 | 6.0 | 11.2 | 5.5 |
| 12 M Sep | 11.5 | 18.8 | 15.7 | 1.5 | 13.9 | 2.5 |
| Jan-Aug | 13.0 | 13.1 | 18.4 | 6.6 | 4.7 | |
| 12 M Aug | 10.0 | 12.9 | 12.8 | 4.5 | 15.6 | 9.5 |
| Jan-Jul | 13.3 | 13.0 | 19.2 | 6.9 | 9.9 | 4.0 |
| 12 M | 13.2 | 14.9 | 16.8 | 5.9 | 9.8 | -1.3 |
| 12 M | 16.2 | 14.8 | 19.9 | -0.7 | 9.8 | 3.6 |
| 12 M | 12.1 | 10.6 | 19.2 | 6.0 | 14.2 | -1.9 |
| 12 M Apr | 11.7 | 8.3 | 22.4 | 6.8 | 6.1 | -1.6 |
| 12 M Mar | 14.8 | 13.7 | 29.8 | 8.0 | 11.6 | 9.9 |
| 12 M Feb | 11.7 | 14.5 | 9.1 | 10.9 | 14.4 | 10.3 |
| 12 M Jan | 5.1 | 3.5 | 16.4 | 12.2 | 1.4 | 23.9 |
| 12 M Dec 2010 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 17.3 | 10.3 | -1.9 | 27.6 |
M: month
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Monthly growth rates of industrial production in China are provided in Table VC-3. Monthly rates have fluctuated around 1 percent. Jan and Feb 2012 are somewhat weaker but there was improvement to 1.25 percent in Mar 2012. The rate of 0.33 percent in Apr 2012 is the lowest in the monthly series from Feb 2011 to May 2014. Monthly sales growth remained below 1 percent in all months from Jan 2012 to Dec 2013 with the exception of Mar 2012.. Value added of industry increased 0.70 percent in Apr 2014 and 0.71 percent in May 2014.
Table VC-3, China, Industrial Production Operation, Month ∆%
| 2011 | Month ∆% |
| Feb | 0.93 |
| Mar | 0.99 |
| Apr | 1.32 |
| May | 0.79 |
| Jun | 1.30 |
| Jul | 0.82 |
| Aug | 0.85 |
| Sep | 0.95 |
| Oct | 0.71 |
| Nov | 0.68 |
| Dec | 0.94 |
| Jan 2012 | 0.50 |
| Feb | 0.61 |
| Mar | 1.25 |
| Apr | 0.33 |
| May | 0.89 |
| Jun | 0.83 |
| Jul | 0.59 |
| Aug | 0.61 |
| Sep | 0.89 |
| Oct | 0.76 |
| Nov | 0.86 |
| Dec | 0.90 |
| Jan 2013 | 0.61 |
| Feb | 0.78 |
| Mar | 0.72 |
| Apr | 0.80 |
| May | 0.74 |
| Jun | 0.68 |
| Jul | 0.86 |
| Aug | 0.88 |
| Sep | 0.64 |
| Oct | 0.77 |
| Nov | 0.69 |
| Dec | 0.67 |
| Jan 2014 | 0.61 |
| Feb | 0.62 |
| Mar | 0.81 |
| Apr | 0.70 |
| May | 0.71 |
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Table VC-4 provides cumulative growth of investment in fixed assets in China in Jan-Dec 2011, Jan-Dec 2012, Jan-Dec 2013 and Jan-May 2014 relative to a year earlier. Total fixed investment had grown at a high rate fluctuating around 25 percent and fixed investment in real estate development has grown at rates in excess of 30 percent but rates have declined significantly to still quite high percentages. In Jan-May 2014, investment in fixed assets in China grew 17.2 percent relative to a year earlier and 14.7 percent in real estate development. There was slight deceleration in the final two months of 2011 that continued into Jan-Dec 2013 and Jan-May 2014.
Table VC-4, China, Investment in Fixed Assets ∆% Relative to a Year Earlier
| Total | State | Real Estate Development | |
| Jan-May 2014 | 17.2 | 15.1 | 14.7 |
| Jan-Apr 2014 | 17.3 | 14.4 | 16.4 |
| Jan-Mar 2014 | 17.6 | 14.5 | 16.8 |
| Jan-Feb | 17.9 | NA | 19.3 |
| Jan-Dec 2013 | 19.6 | 16.3 | 19.8 |
| Jan-Nov | 19.9 | 16.8 | 19.5 |
| Jan-Oct | 20.1 | 17.1 | 19.2 |
| Jan-Sep | 20.2 | 17.6 | 19.7 |
| Jan-Aug | 20.3 | NA | 19.3 |
| Jan-Jul | 20.1 | 17.5 | 20.5 |
| Jan-Jun | 20.1 | 17.5 | 20.3 |
| Jan-May | 20.4 | 17.7 | 20.6 |
| Jan-Apr | 20.6 | 18.1 | 21.1 |
| Jan-Mar | 20.9 | 18.7 | 20.2 |
| Jan-Feb | 21.2 | 16.9 | 22.8 |
| Jan-Dec 2012 | 20.6 | 14.7 | 16.2 |
| Jan-Nov | 20.7 | 14.5 | 16.7 |
| Jan-Oct | 20.7 | 14.2 | 15.4 |
| Jan-Sep | 20.5 | 13.6 | 15.4 |
| Jan-Aug | 20.2 | 12.9 | 15.6 |
| Jan-Jul | 20.4 | 12.6 | 15.4 |
| Jan-Jun | 20.4 | 13.8 | 16.6 |
| Jan-May | 20.1 | 10.0 | 18.5 |
| Jan-Apr | 20.2 | 9.5 | 18.7 |
| Jan-Mar | 20.9 | 9.0 | 23.5 |
| Jan-Feb | 21.5 | 8.8 | 27.8 |
| Jan-Dec 2011 | 23.8 | 11.1 | 27.9 |
| Jan-Nov | 24.5 | 11.7 | 29.9 |
| Jan-Oct | 24.9 | 12.4 | 31.1 |
| Jan-Sep | 24.9 | 12.7 | 32.0 |
| Jan-Aug | 25.0 | 12.1 | 33.2 |
| Jan-Jul | 25.4 | 13.6 | 33.6 |
| Jan-Jun | 25.6 | 14.6 | 32.9 |
| Jan-May | 25.8 | 14.9 | 34.6 |
| Jan-Apr | 25.4 | 16.6 | 34.3 |
| Jan-Mar | 25.0 | 17.0 | 34.1 |
| Jan-Feb | 24.9 | 15.6 | 35.2 |
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Chart VC-2 provides percentage changes of cumulative fixed asset investment in China relative to a year earlier in all months from 2013 to 2014. Growth fell from 20.9 percent in Jan-Mar 2013 to 17.2 percent in Jan-May 2014.
Chart VC-2, China, Investment in Fixed Assets, ∆% Cumulative over Year Earlier
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
China has used restriction of reserves of banks to moderate real estate investment. These policies have been reversed because of lower inflation and weakening economic growth. Chart VC-3 shows decline of fluctuating cumulative growth rates of investment in real estate development relative to a year earlier from 21.1 percent in Jan-Apr 2013 to 14.7 percent in Jan-May 2014.
Chart VC-3, China, Investment in Real Estate Development, ∆% Cumulative over Year Earlier
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Growth rates of China’s retail sales in 12 months and cumulative relative to a year earlier are in Table VC-5. There is decline of growth rates to cumulative 12.1 percent in Jan-May 2014 relative to a year earlier from 19.9 percent in Jan 2011 and 17.1 percent in Dec 2011.
Table VC-5, China, Retail Sales 12-Month ∆% and Cumulative ∆% Relative to Year Earlier
| 12-Month ∆% | Cumulative ∆%/ | |
| 2014 | ||
| Jan-May | 12.5 | 12.1 |
| Jan-Apr | 11.9 | 12.0 |
| Jan-Mar | 12.2 | 12.0 |
| Jan-Feb | 11.8 | NA |
| 2013 | ||
| Dec | 13.6 | 13.1 |
| Nov | 13.7 | 13.0 |
| Oct | 13.3 | 13.0 |
| Sep | 13.3 | 12.9 |
| Aug | 13.4 | 12.8 |
| Jul | 13.2 | 12.8 |
| Jun | 13.3 | 12.7 |
| May | 12.9 | 12.6 |
| Apr | 12.8 | 12.5 |
| Mar | 12.6 | 12.4 |
| Feb | 12.3 | 12.3 |
| 2012 | ||
| Dec | 15.2 | 14.3 |
| Nov | 14.9 | 14.2 |
| Oct | 14.5 | 14.1 |
| Sep | 14.2 | 14.1 |
| Aug | 13.2 | 14.1 |
| Jul | 13.1 | 14.2 |
| Jun | 13.7 | 14.4 |
| May | 13.8 | 14.5 |
| Apr | 14.1 | 14.7 |
| Mar | 15.2 | 14.8 |
| Feb | 14.7 | 14.7 |
| 2011 | ||
| Dec | 18.1 | 17.1 |
| Nov | 17.3 | 17.0 |
| Oct | 17.2 | 17.0 |
| Sep | 17.7 | 17.0 |
| Aug | 17.0 | 16.9 |
| Jul | 17.2 | 16.8 |
| Jun | 17.7 | 16.8 |
| May | 16.9 | 16.6 |
| Apr | 17.1 | 16.5 |
| Mar | 17.4 | 17.4 |
| Feb | 11.6 | 15.8 |
| Jan | 19.9 | 19.9 |
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Chart VC-4 of the National Bureau of Statistics of China provides 12-month rates of growth of retail sales from 2013 to 2014. There is again a drop into 2013 with the lowest percentages in Chart VC-4 followed by moderate increases. The growth rate of retail sales fell to 12.5 percent in Jan-May 2014 relative to a year earlier.
Chart VC-4, China, Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods 12-Month ∆%
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Table VC-6 provides monthly percentage changes of retail sales in China. Although the rate of 0.19 percent in Jan 2012 is the lowest in Table VC-6, the rate of 1.32 percent in Sep 2012 is relatively high and 1.23 percent in Dec 2012 is closer to rates in 2011. Sales are lower in Jan-Feb 2013 because of the Lunar New Year celebrations, rebounding in Mar-Dec 2013. There is weakness in Jan-Feb 2014 also partly under influence of the celebration of the Lunar New Year followed with 1.34 percent in Mar 2014. Retail sales increased 1.16 percent in May 2014.
Table VC-6, China, Retail Sales, Month ∆%
| 2011 | Month ∆% |
| Feb | 1.35 |
| Mar | 1.26 |
| Apr | 1.30 |
| May | 1.39 |
| Jun | 1.49 |
| Jul | 1.57 |
| Aug | 1.50 |
| Sep | 1.33 |
| Oct | 1.36 |
| Nov | 1.26 |
| Dec | 1.41 |
| 2012 | |
| Jan | 0.19 |
| Feb | 0.99 |
| Mar | 1.21 |
| Apr | 0.93 |
| May | 1.11 |
| Jun | 1.12 |
| Jul | 1.03 |
| Aug | 1.11 |
| Sep | 1.32 |
| Oct | 1.18 |
| Nov | 1.21 |
| Dec | 1.23 |
| Jan 2013 | 0.14 |
| Feb | 0.87 |
| Mar | 1.50 |
| Apr | 0.99 |
| May | 0.95 |
| Jun | 1.04 |
| Jul | 1.06 |
| Aug | 0.92 |
| Sep | 1.05 |
| Oct | 0.98 |
| Nov | 1.01 |
| Dec | 1.01 |
| 2014 | |
| Jan | 0.91 |
| Feb | 0.62 |
| Mar | 1.34 |
| Apr | 0.82 |
| May | 1.16 |
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Table VC-7 provides China’s exports, imports, trade balance and 12-month percentage changes from Dec 2010 to May 2014. The trade surplus of China increased to $35.92 billion in May 2014 with growth of exports of 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier and decline of imports by 1.6 percent. The trade surplus of China increased to $18.45 billion in Apr 2014 with growth of exports of 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier and of imports of 0.8 percent. China had a trade surplus of $7.71 billion in Mar 2014 with exports declining 6.6 percent in 12 months and imports decreasing 11.3 percent. China had a rare trade deficit of $22.99 billion in Feb 2014 with exports decreasing 18.1 percent in 12 months while imports increased 10.1 percent. Exports increased 10.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2014 and imports 10.0 percent for trade surplus of $31.87 billion. Exports increased 4.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013 while imports increased 8.3 percent for trade surplus of $25.64 billion. Exports surged 12.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2013 while imports increased 5.3 percent for trade surplus of $33.8 billion. Exports rebounded with growth of 5.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2013 while imports increased 7.6 percent for trade surplus of $31.11 billion. Exports fell 0.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2013 while imports increased 7.4 for reduction of the trade surplus to $15.2 billion. Markets reacted positively to China’s trade data in Aug 2013 with exports growing 7.2 percent relative to a year earlier and imports 7.0 percent for increasing trade surplus of $28.52. Exports increased 5.1 in Jul 2013 and imports 10.9 percent for trade surplus of $17.82 billion. Exports fell 3.1 percent in Jun 2013 and imports declined 0.7 percent. The trade surplus reached $27.12 billion. Exports increased 1.0 percent in May 2013 relative to a year earlier while imports fell 0.3 percent with trade surplus of $20.43 billion. Exports increased 14.7 percent in Apr 2013 relative to a year earlier and imports 16.8 percent for trade surplus of $18.16 billion. Exports increased 10.0 percent in Mar 2013 relative to a year earlier and imports increased 14.1 percent for trade deficit of $0.88 billion. Exports increased 21.8 percent in Feb 2013 relative to a year earlier and imports fell 15.2 percent for trade surplus of $15.25 billion. China’s trade growth was stronger in Jan 2013 with growth of exports of 25.0 percent in 12 months and of imports of 28.8 percent for trade surplus of $29.15 billion. China’s trade growth strengthened in Dec 2012 with growth in 12 months of exports of 14.1 percent and of imports of 6.0 percent. China’s trade growth weakened again in Nov 2012 with growth of exports of 2.9 percent and no change in imports. China’s trade growth rebounded with growth of exports in 12 months of 11.6 percent in Oct 2012 and 9.9 percent in Sep 2012 after 2.7 percent in Aug 2012 and 1.0 percent in Jul 2012 while imports grew 2.4 percent in both Sep and Oct 2012, stagnating in Nov 2012. As a result, the monthly trade surplus increased from $25.2 billion in Jul 2012 to $31.9 billion in Oct 2012, declining to $19.6 billion in Nov 2012 but increasing to $31.62 billion in Dec 2012. China’s trade growth rebounded in Oct 2012 with growth of exports of 11.6 percent in 12 months and 2.4 percent for imports and trade surplus of $31.9 billion. The number that caught attention in financial markets was growth of 1.0 percent in exports in the 12 months ending in Jul 2012. Imports were also weak, growing 4.7 percent in 12 months ending in Jul 2012. Exports increased 11.3 percent in Jun 2012 relative to a year earlier while imports grew 6.3 percent. The rate of growth of exports fell to 4.9 percent in Apr 2012 relative to a year earlier and imports increased 0.3 percent but export growth was 15.3 percent in May and imports increased 12.7 percent. China reversed the large trade deficit of USD 31.48 billion in Feb 2012 with a surplus of $5.35 billion in Mar 2012, $18.42 billion in Apr 2012, $18.7 billion in May 2012, $31.7 billion in Jun 2012, $25.2 billion in Jul 2012, $26.7 billion in Aug 2012, $27.7 billion in Sep 2012, $31.9 billion in Oct 2012 and $19.6 billion in Nov 2012. Exports fell 0.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2012 while imports fell 15.3 percent for a still sizeable trade surplus of $27.3 billion. In Feb 2012, exports increased 18.4 percent while imports jumped 39.6 percent for a sizeable deficit of $31.48 billion. There are distortions from the Lunar New Year holidays.
Table VC-7, China, Exports, Imports and Trade Balance USD Billion and ∆%
| Exports | ∆% Relative | Imports USD | ∆% Relative | Balance | |
| May 2014 | 195.47 | 7.0 | 159.55 | -1.6 | 35.92 |
| Apr | 188.54 | 0.9 | 170.09 | 0.8 | 18.45 |
| Mar | 170.11 | -6.6 | 162.40 | -11.3 | 7.71 |
| Feb | 114.09 | -18.1 | 137.08 | 10.1 | -22.99 |
| Jan | 207.13 | 10.6 | 175.26 | 10.0 | 31.87 |
| Dec 2013 | 207.74 | 4.3 | 182.10 | 8.3 | 25.64 |
| Nov | 202.20 | 12.7 | 168.40 | 5.3 | 33.8 |
| Oct | 185.41 | 5.6 | 154.30 | 7.6 | 31.11 |
| Sep | 185.64 | -0.3 | 170.44 | 7.4 | 15.21 |
| Aug | 190.61 | 7.2 | 162.09 | 7.0 | 28.52 |
| Jul | 185.99 | 5.1 | 168.17 | 10.9 | 17.82 |
| Jun | 174.32 | -3.1 | 147.19 | -0.7 | 27.12 |
| May | 182.77 | 1.0 | 162.34 | -0.3 | 20.43 |
| Apr | 187.06 | 14.7 | 168.90 | 16.8 | 18.16 |
| Mar | 182.19 | 10.0 | 183.07 | 14.1 | -0.88 |
| Feb | 139.37 | 21.8 | 124.12 | -15.2 | 15.25 |
| Jan | 187.37 | 25.0 | 158.22 | 28.8 | 29.15 |
| Dec 2012 | 199.23 | 14.1 | 167.61 | 6.0 | 31.62 |
| Nov | 179.38 | 2.9 | 159.75 | 0.0 | 19.63 |
| Oct | 175.57 | 11.6 | 143.58 | 2.4 | 31.99 |
| Sep | 186.35 | 9.9 | 158.68 | 2.4 | 27.67 |
| Aug | 177.97 | 2.7 | 151.31 | -2.6 | 26.66 |
| Jul | 176.94 | 1.0 | 151.79 | 4.7 | 25.15 |
| Jun | 180.20 | 11.3 | 148.48 | 6.3 | 31.72 |
| May | 181.14 | 15.3 | 162.44 | 12.7 | 18.70 |
| Apr | 163.25 | 4.9 | 144.83 | 0.3 | 18.42 |
| Mar | 165.66 | 8.9 | 160.31 | 5.3 | 5.35 |
| Feb | 114.47 | 18.4 | 145.95 | 39.6 | -31.48 |
| Jan | 149.94 | -0.5 | 122.66 | -15.3 | 27.28 |
| Dec 2011 | 174.72 | 13.4 | 158.20 | 11.8 | 16.52 |
| Nov | 174.46 | 13.8 | 159.94 | 22.1 | 14.53 |
| Oct | 157.49 | 15.9 | 140.46 | 28.7 | 17.03 |
| Sep | 169.67 | 17.1 | 155.16 | 20.9 | 14.51 |
| Aug | 173.32 | 24.5 | 155.56 | 30.2 | 17.76 |
| Jul | 175.13 | 20.4 | 143.64 | 22.9 | 31.48 |
| Jun | 161.98 | 17.9 | 139.71 | 19.3 | 22.27 |
| May | 157.16 | 19.4 | 144.11 | 28.4 | 13.05 |
| Apr | 155.69 | 29.9 | 144.26 | 21.8 | 11.42 |
| Mar | 152.20 | 35.8 | 152.06 | 27.3 | 0.14 |
| Feb | 96.74 | 2.4 | 104.04 | 19.4 | -7.31 |
| Jan | 150.73 | 37.7 | 144.27 | 51.0 | 6.46 |
| Dec 2010 | 154.15 | 17.9 | 141.07 | 25.6 | 13.08 |
Source: Ministry of Commerce, People’s Republic of China
http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/article/statistic/BriefStatistics/
Table VC-8 provides cumulative exports, imports and the trade balance of China together with percentage growth of exports and imports relative to a year earlier. Exports fell 0.4 percent in Jan-May 2014 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 0.8 percent for cumulative surplus of $71.11 billion. Exports fell 2.3 percent in Jan-Apr 2014 relative to the same period a year earlier and imports increased 1.5 percent for cumulative trade surplus of $35.19 billion.
Exports fell 3.4 percent in Jan-Mar 2014 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 1.6 percent for cumulative surplus of $16.74 billion. Exports fell 1.6 percent and imports increased 10.0 percent for cumulative surplus of $8.88 billion in Jan-Feb 2014. Exports increased 10.6 percent in Jan 2014 and imports 10.0 percent for cumulative surplus of $31.87 billion. Exports increased 7.9 percent in Jan-Dec 2013 relative to the same period a year earlier while imports increased 7.3 percent for cumulative surplus of $259.75 billion. Exports grew 8.3 percent in Jan-Nov 2013 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 7.1 percent for cumulative surplus of $234.15 billion. Exports grew 7.8 percent in Jan-Oct 2013 relative to a year earlier while imports grew 7.3 percent for cumulative trade surplus of $200.46 billion. Exports increased 8.0 percent in Jan-Sep 2013 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 7.3 percent for cumulative surplus of $169.36 billion. Exports increased 9.2 percent in in Jan-Aug 2013 relative to a year earlier and imports 7.3 percent for trade surplus of $154.21 billion. Exports grew 9.5 percent in Jul 2013 relative to a year earlier and imports 7.3 percent with cumulative surplus of $125.71 billion. Exports increased 10.4 percent cumulatively in Jun 2013 and imports 6.7 for cumulative surplus of $107.95 billion. Exports increased 13.5 percent in Jan-May 2013 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 8.2 percent for cumulative surplus of $80.87 billion. Exports increased 17.4 percent in Jan-Apr 2012 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 10.6 percent for cumulative surplus of $60.98 billion. Exports increased 18.4 percent in Jan-Mar 2013 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 8.4 percent for cumulative surplus of $43.07 billion. Cumulative exports in Jan-Feb 2013 grew 23.6 percent relative to a year earlier and imports 5.0 percent for trade surplus of $44.15 billion. There is strong beginning of 2013 with trade surplus of $29.15 in Jan 2013 and growth of exports of 25.0 percent and imports of 28.8 percent. The trade balance of $231.1 billion in 2012 is stronger than the trade balance of $155.14 billion in 2011. The trade balance in 2011 of $155.14 billion is lower than those from 2008 to 2010. China’s trade balance reached $231.1 billion in Jan-Dec 2012 with cumulative growth of exports of 7.9 percent and 4.3 percent of imports, which is much lower than 20.3 percent for exports and 24.9 percent for imports in 2011 and 31.3 percent for exports and 38.7 percent for imports in 2010. There is a rare cumulative deficit of $4.2 billion in Feb 2012 reversed to a small surplus in Mar 2012 and a higher surplus of $19.3 billion in Apr 2012, increasing to $37.9 billion in May, $68.9 billion in Jun 2012, $94.1 billion in Jul 2012, $120.6 billion in Aug 2012, $148.3 billion in Sep 2012, $180.24 billion in Oct 2012, $199.54 billion in Nov 2012 and $231.1 billion in Dec 2012. More observations are required to detect trends of Chinese trade.
Table VC-8, China, Year to Date Exports, Imports and Trade Balance USD Billion and ∆%
| Exports | ∆% Relative | Imports USD | ∆% Relative | Balance | |
| May 2014 | 875.32 | -0.4 | 804.21 | 0.8 | 71.11 |
| Apr | 679.85 | -2.3 | 644.66 | 1.5 | 35.19 |
| Mar | 491.31 | -3.4 | 474.57 | 1.6 | 16.74 |
| Feb | 321.23 | -1.6 | 312.35 | 10.0 | 8.88 |
| Jan | 207.13 | 10.6 | 175.26 | 10.0 | 31.87 |
| Dec 2013 | 2210.04 | 7.9 | 1950.29 | 7.3 | 259.75 |
| Nov | 2002.32 | 8.3 | 1768.17 | 7.1 | 234.15 |
| Oct | 1800.21 | 7.8 | 1599.75 | 7.3 | 200.46 |
| Sep | 1614.86 | 8.0 | 1445.50 | 7.3 | 169.36 |
| Aug | 1429.26 | 9.2 | 1275.05 | 7.3 | 154.21 |
| Jul | 1238.73 | 9.5 | 1113.02 | 7.3 | 125.71 |
| Jun | 1052.82 | 10.4 | 944.87 | 6.7 | 107.95 |
| May | 878.56 | 13.5 | 797.69 | 8.2 | 80.87 |
| Apr | 695.87 | 17.4 | 634.88 | 10.6 | 60.98 |
| Mar | 508.87 | 18.4 | 465.80 | 8.4 | 43.07 |
| Feb | 326.73 | 23.6 | 282.58 | 5.0 | 44.15 |
| Jan | 187.37 | 25.0 | 158.22 | 28.8 | 29.15 |
| Dec 2012 | 2048.93 | 7.9 | 1817.83 | 4.3 | 231.11 |
| Nov | 1849.91 | 7.3 | 1650.37 | 4.1 | 199.54 |
| Oct | 1670.90 | 7.8 | 1490.67 | 4.6 | 180.24 |
| Sep | 1495.39 | 7.4 | 1347.08 | 4.8 | 148.31 |
| Aug | 1309.11 | 7.1 | 1188.51 | 5.1 | 120.61 |
| Jul | 1131.24 | 7.8 | 1037.14 | 6.4 | 94.10 |
| Jun | 954.38 | 9.2 | 885.46 | 6.7 | 68.91 |
| May | 774.40 | 8.7 | 736.49 | 6.7 | 37.92 |
| Apr | 593.24 | 6.9 | 573.94 | 5.1 | 19.3 |
| Mar | 430.02 | 7.6 | 429.36 | 6.6 | 0.66 |
| Feb | 264.40 | 6.9 | 268.64 | 7.7 | -4.24 |
| Jan | 149.94 | -0.5 | 122.66 | -15.3 | 27.28 |
| Dec 2011 | 1,898.60 | 20.3 | 1,743.46 | 24.9 | 155.14 |
| Nov | 1,724.01 | 21.1 | 1585.61 | 26.4 | 138.40 |
| Oct | 1,549.71 | 22.0 | 1,425.68 | 26.9 | 124.03 |
| Sep | 1,392.27 | 22.7 | 1,285.17 | 26.7 | 107.10 |
| Aug | 1,222.63 | 23.6 | 1,129.90 | 27.5 | 92.73 |
| Jul | 1,049.38 | 23.4 | 973.17 | 26.9 | 76.21 |
| Jun | 874.3 | 24.0 | 829.37 | 27.6 | 44.93 |
| May | 712.37 | 25.5 | 689.41 | 29.4 | 22.96 |
| Apr | 555.30 | 27.4 | 545.02 | 29.6 | 10.28 |
| Mar | 399.64 | 26.5 | 400.66 | 32.6 | -1.02 |
| Feb | 247.47 | 21.3 | 248.36 | 36.0 | -0.89 |
| Jan | 150.7 | 37.7 | 144.27 | 51.0 | 6.46 |
| Dec 2010 | 1577.93 | 31.3 | 1394.83 | 38.7 | 183.10 |
Source: Ministry of Commerce, People’s Republic of China
http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/article/statistic/BriefStatistics/
VD Euro Area. Table VD-EUR provides yearly growth rates of the combined GDP of the members of the European Monetary Union (EMU) or euro area since 1996. Growth was very strong at 3.3 percent in 2006 and 3.0 percent in 2007. The global recession had strong impact with growth of only 0.4 percent in 2008 and decline of 4.4 percent in 2009. Recovery was at lower growth rates of 2.0 percent in 2010 and 1.6 percent in 2011. EUROSTAT estimates growth of GDP of the euro area of minus 0.7 percent in 2012 and minus 0.4 percent in 2013 but 1.1 percent in 2014 and 1.7 percent in 2015.
Table VD-EUR, Euro Area, Yearly Percentage Change of Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, Unemployment and GDP ∆%
| Year | HICP ∆% | Unemployment | GDP ∆% |
| 1999 | 1.2 | 9.6 | 2.9 |
| 2000 | 2.2 | 8.8 | 3.8 |
| 2001 | 2.4 | 8.2 | 2.0 |
| 2002 | 2.3 | 8.5 | 0.9 |
| 2003 | 2.1 | 9.0 | 0.7 |
| 2004 | 2.2 | 9.2 | 2.2 |
| 2005 | 2.2 | 9.1 | 1.7 |
| 2006 | 2.2 | 8.4 | 3.3 |
| 2007 | 2.2 | 7.5 | 3.0 |
| 2008 | 3.3 | 7.6 | 0.4 |
| 2009 | 0.3 | 9.6 | -4.5 |
| 2010 | 1.6 | 10.1 | 1.9 |
| 2011 | 2.7 | 10.1 | 1.6 |
| 2012 | 2.5 | 11.3 | -0.7 |
| 2013* | 1.3 | 12.0 | -0.4 |
| 2014* | 1.1 | ||
| 2015* | 1.7 |
*EUROSTAT forecast Source: EUROSTAT
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database
The GDP of the euro area in 2012 in current US dollars in the dataset of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is $12,199.1 billion or 16.9 percent of world GDP of $72,216.4 billion (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/02/weodata/index.aspx). The sum of the GDP of France $2613.9 billion with the GDP of Germany of $3429.5 billion, Italy of $2014.1 billion and Spain $1323.5 billion is $9381.0 billion or 76.9 percent of total euro area GDP and 13.0 percent of World GDP. The four largest economies account for slightly more than three quarters of economic activity of the euro area. Table VD-EUR1 is constructed with the dataset of EUROSTAT, providing growth rates of the euro area as a whole and of the largest four economies of Germany, France, Italy and Spain annually from 1996 to 2011 with the estimate of 2012 and forecasts for 2013, 2014 and 2015 by EUROSTAT. The impact of the global recession on the overall euro area economy and on the four largest economies was quite strong. There was sharp contraction in 2009 and growth rates have not rebounded to earlier growth with exception of Germany in 2010 and 2011.
Table VD-EUR1, Euro Area, Real GDP Growth Rate, ∆%
| Euro Area | Germany | France | Italy | Spain | |
| 2015* | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| 2014* | 1.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 2013* | -0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | -1.9 | -1.2 |
| 2012 | -0.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | -2.4 | -1.6 |
| 2011 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2010 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | -0.2 |
| 2009 | -4.5 | -5.1 | -3.1 | -5.5 | -3.8 |
| 2008 | 0.4 | 1.1 | -0.1 | -1.2 | 0.9 |
| 2007 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 3.5 |
| 2006 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 4.1 |
| 2005 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 3.6 |
| 2004 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 3.3 |
| 2003 | 0.7 | -0.4 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 3.1 |
| 2002 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 2.7 |
| 2001 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 3.7 |
| 2000 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 5.0 |
| 1999 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 4.7 |
| 1998 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 4.5 |
| 1997 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 3.9 |
| 1996 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 2.5 |
Source: EUROSTAT
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database
The Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index of the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI®, combining activity in manufacturing and services, decreased from 54.0 in Apr to 53.9 in May (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b1ef2c10fe5d406ab003ebab100f7e39). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds that the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI index suggests that the index is consistent with growth of GDP as high as 0.5 percent in IIQ2014 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b1ef2c10fe5d406ab003ebab100f7e39). The Markit Eurozone PMI® Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing activity with close association with GDP decreased from 54.0 in Apr, to 53.5 in May, which is close to the fastest in about three years (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/ee66d546cfb148bfa13b8331c0f337ac). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds growth of GDP at 0.4 to 0.5 percent in IIQ2014 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/ee66d546cfb148bfa13b8331c0f337ac). The Markit Eurozone Services Business Activity Index decreased from 53.1 in Apr to 53.2 in May (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/ee66d546cfb148bfa13b8331c0f337ac). The Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI® decreased to 52.2 in May from 53.4 in Apr (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/6a52f60530914812bb4fa9fdb053994c). New orders and export orders increased for the eleventh consecutive month. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds industrial growth in the euro area at a quarterly rate around 0.5 percent (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/6a52f60530914812bb4fa9fdb053994c). Table EUR provides the data table for the euro area.
Table EUR, Euro Area Economic Indicators
| GDP | IQ2014 ∆% 0.2; IQ2014/IVQ2013 ∆% 0.9 Blog 6/8/14 |
| Unemployment | Apr 2014: 11.7 % unemployment rate; Apr 2014: 18.751 million unemployed Blog 6/8/14 |
| HICP | Apr month ∆%: 0.2 12 months Apr ∆%: 0.7 |
| Producer Prices | Euro Zone industrial producer prices Apr ∆%: -0.1 |
| Industrial Production | Apr month ∆%: 0.8; Apr 12 months ∆%: 1.4 |
| Retail Sales | Apr month ∆%: 0.4 |
| Confidence and Economic Sentiment Indicator | Sentiment 102.7 May 2014 Consumer minus 7.1 May 2014 Blog 6/1/14 |
| Trade | Jan-Apr 2014/Jan-Apr 2013 Exports ∆%: 0.5 Apr 2014 12-month Exports ∆% 1.5 Imports ∆% -2.8 |
Links to blog comments in Table EUR:
6/8/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-risks-rules-discretionary.html
6/1/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-instability-mediocre-cyclical.html
5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html
Table VD-1 provides monthly industrial production percentage changes for total production and major segments in the euro area. Total production increased 0.8 percent in Apr 2014 with increase of 2.5 percent in energy and increase of 0.1 percent in durable goods. Capital goods decreased 0.1 percent. Nondurable goods increased 2.1 percent and intermediate goods increased 0.6 percent. Industrial production increased in all months from Dec 2012 to Jun 2013 with exception of declines of 0.5 percent in May 2013 and 0.4 percent in Jan 2013. Industrial production fell 0.9 percent in Jul 2013, 0.2 percent in Sep 2013, 0.5 percent in Oct 2013 and 0.3 percent in Dec 2013.
Table VD-1, Euro Zone, Industrial Production Month ∆%
| Total | INT | ENE | CG | DUR | NDUR | |
| Apr 2014 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 2.5 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 2.1 |
| Mar | -0.4 | -0.6 | -0.2 | -0.6 | 0.0 | -0.6 |
| Feb | 0.1 | 0.4 | -1.9 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Jan | 0.1 | 0.5 | -1.8 | 0.5 | -0.1 | 0.1 |
| Dec 2013 | -0.3 | 0.5 | -2.9 | -0.6 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| Nov | 1.4 | 0.6 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.3 |
Notes: INT: Intermediate; ENE: Energy; CG: Capital Goods; DUR: Durable Consumer Goods; NDUR: Nondurable Consumer Goods
Source: EUROSTAT
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database
Table VD-2 provides monthly and 12-month percentage changes of industrial production and major industrial categories in the euro zone. Several 12-month percentage changes in Table VD-6 are positive in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014 with exception of decreases of 6.7 percent in energy. Industrial production increased 0.8 percent in the month of Apr 2014 and increased 1.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014.
Table VD-2, Euro Zone, Industrial Production, Month and 12-Month ∆%
| 2014 | Apr Month ∆% | Apr 12-Month ∆% |
| Total | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Intermediate Goods | 0.6 | 3.4 |
| Energy | 2.5 | -6.7 |
| Capital Goods | -0.1 | 0.3 |
| Durable Consumer Goods | 0.1 | 1.0 |
| Nondurable Consumer Goods | 2.1 | 5.0 |
Source: EUROSTAT
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database
There has been significant decline in percentage changes of industrial production and major categories in 12-month rates into 2012 and 2013 with recovery in 2014, as shown in Table VD-3. Negative percentage changes moderated from the high rates in Oct-Nov 2012 with return to growth. All 12-month percentage changes are negative for the various segments of euro area industrial production from May to Aug 2013 with exception of capital goods in Jun but there is improvement in Sep to Dec 2013 and Jan 2014 with positive 12-month percentage changes for total industry. There is significant improvement in 2014 with growth of 1.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb with deterioration to 0.3 percent in Mar 2014 and rebound of 1.4 percent in Apr 2014. Output of capital goods increased 2.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2014 but only 0.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014. Output of intermediate goods increased 3.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014.
Table VD-3, Euro Zone, Industrial Production 12-Month ∆%
| Total | INT | ENE | CG | DUR | NDUR | |
| Apr 2014 | 1.4 | 3.4 | -6.7 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 5.0 |
| Mar | 0.2 | 2.8 | -12.2 | 2.5 | -0.8 | 1.9 |
| Feb | 1.8 | 3.9 | -9.1 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 3.2 |
| Jan | 1.7 | 3.4 | -5.6 | 5.3 | -0.2 | 0.0 |
| Dec 2013 | 1.4 | 3.2 | -1.5 | 2.2 | -1.6 | 0.2 |
| Nov | 2.8 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 4.3 | -1.4 | 2.2 |
Notes: INT: Intermediate; ENE: Energy; CG: Capital Goods; DUR: Durable Consumer Goods; NDUR: Nondurable Consumer Goods
Source: EUROSTAT
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database
Growth of euro zone trade continues to be relatively resilient as shown in Table VD-4 but with deceleration at the margin. Exports grew 0.5 percent and imports fell 0.6 percent in Jan-Apr 2014 relative to Jan-Apr 2013. The 12-month rate of growth of exports was minus 1.5 percent in Apr 2014 while imports decreased 2.8 percent. In Mar 2014, exports decreased 0.6 percent in 12 months and imports increased 2.9 percent. At the margin, rates of growth of trade are declining in part because of moderation of commodity prices.
Table VD-4, Euro Zone, Exports, Imports and Trade Balance, Billions of Euros and Percent, NSA
| Exports | Imports | |
| Jan-Apr 2014 | 626.0 | 578.3 |
| Jan-Apr 2013 | 622.6 | 581.7 |
| ∆% | 0.5 | -0.6 |
| Apr 2014 | 159.3 | 143.6 |
| Apr 2013 | 161.7 | 147.7 |
| ∆% | -1.5% | -2.8 |
| Mar 2014 | 164.2 | 147.4 |
| Mar 2013 | 165.2 | 143.3 |
| ∆% | -0.6 | 2.9 |
| Trade Balance | Jan-Apr 2014 | Jan-Apr 2013 |
| € Billions | 47.7 | 40.9 |
Source: EUROSTAT
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database
The structure of trade of the euro zone in Mar 2013 is provided in Table VD-5. Data are still not available for trade structure for Apr 2014. Manufactured exports increased 2.7 percent in Jan-Mar 2014 relative to Jan-Mar 2013 while imports increased 4.5 percent. The trade surplus in manufactured products was higher than the trade deficit in primary products in Jan-Mar 2014 but only marginally lower in Jan-Mar 2013 partly because of the commodity shock caused by carry trades.
Table VD-5, Euro Zone, Structure of Exports, Imports and Trade Balance, € Billions, NSA, ∆%
| Primary | Manufactured | Other | Total | |
| Exports | ||||
| Jan-Mar 2014 € B | 73.0 | 381.1 | 12.6 | 466.6 |
| Jan-Mar 2013 € B | 75.2 | 371.2 | 14.5 | 460.9 |
| ∆% | -2.9 | 2.7 | -13.1 | 1.2 |
| Imports | ||||
| Jan-Mar 2014 € B | 148.5 | 278.1 | 8.1 | 434.6 |
| Jan-Mar 2013 € B | 159.7 | 266.2 | 8.1 | 434.0 |
| ∆% | -7.0 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Trade Balance € B | ||||
| Jan-Mar 2014 | -75.5 | 103.0 | 4.5 | 32.0 |
| Jan-Mar 2013 | -84.5 | 105.0 | 6.4 | 26.8 |
Note: there are minor rounding errors
Source: EUROSTAT
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database
VE Germany. Table VE-DE provides yearly growth rates of the German economy from 1971 to 2013, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked. Germany’s GDP fell 5.1 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.1 percent in 2008. Recovery has been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.0 percent in 2010, 3.3 percent in 2011 and 0.7 percent in 2012. Growth decelerated to 0.4 percent in 2013.
The Federal Statistical Agency of Germany analyzes the fall and recovery of the German economy (http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Content/Statistics/VolkswirtschaftlicheGesamtrechnungen/Inlandsprodukt/Aktuell,templateId=renderPrint.psml):
“The German economy again grew strongly in 2011. The price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.0% compared with the previous year. Accordingly, the catching-up process of the German economy continued during the second year after the economic crisis. In the course of 2011, the price-adjusted GDP again exceeded its pre-crisis level. The economic recovery occurred mainly in the first half of 2011. In 2009, Germany experienced the most serious post-war recession, when GDP suffered a historic decline of 5.1%. The year 2010 was characterised by a rapid economic recovery (+3.7%).”
Table VE-DE, Germany, GDP ∆% on Prior Year
| Price Adjusted Chain-Linked | Price- and Calendar-Adjusted Chain Linked | |
| 2013 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| 2012 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| 2011 | 3.3 | 3.4 |
| 2010 | 4.0 | 3.8 |
| 2009 | -5.1 | -5.1 |
| 2008 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 2007 | 3.3 | 3.4 |
| 2006 | 3.7 | 3.9 |
| 2005 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| 2004 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 2003 | -0.4 | -0.4 |
| 2002 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2001 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| 2000 | 3.1 | 3.3 |
| 1999 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| 1998 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| 1997 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| 1996 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 1995 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| 1994 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| 1993 | -1.0 | -1.0 |
| 1992 | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| 1991 | 5.1 | 5.2 |
| 1990 | 5.3 | 5.5 |
| 1989 | 3.9 | 4.0 |
| 1988 | 3.7 | 3.4 |
| 1987 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| 1986 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1985 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 1984 | 2.8 | 2.9 |
| 1983 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| 1982 | -0.4 | -0.5 |
| 1981 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| 1980 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| 1979 | 4.2 | 4.3 |
| 1978 | 3.0 | 3.1 |
| 1977 | 3.3 | 3.5 |
| 1976 | 4.9 | 4.5 |
| 1975 | -0.9 | -0.9 |
| 1974 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| 1973 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| 1972 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| 1971 | 3.1 | 3.0 |
| 1970 | NA | NA |
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/02/PE14_048_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/08/PE13_278_811.html https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/11/PE13_381_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/01/PE14_016_811.html
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/05/PE14_167_811.html
The Flash Germany Composite Output Index of the Markit Flash Germany PMI®, combining manufacturing and services, was unchanged from 56.1 in Apr to 56.1 in May. The index of manufacturing output reached 55.3 in May, decreasing from 58.8 in Apr, while the index of services increased to 56.4 in May from 54.7 in Apr. The overall Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI® decreased from 54.1 in Apr to 52.9 in May (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/38439f40599a481591f420a71f97a9d1). New export work volumes increased for a tenth consecutive month with business originating in the US, Europe and Asia. Oliver Kolodseike, Economist at Markit, finds continuing expansion of Germany’s private sector with strength in new orders and activity (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/38439f40599a481591f420a71f97a9d1). The Markit Germany Composite Output Index of the Markit Germany Services PMI®, combining manufacturing and services with close association with Germany’s GDP, decreased from 56.1 in Apr to 55.6 in May (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/ff8d9f0c27f540ceb7dfc0610cdbbeb5). Oliver Kolodseike, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds prospects of strength of GDP in IIQ2014 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/ff8d9f0c27f540ceb7dfc0610cdbbeb5). The Germany Services Business Activity Index increased from 54.7 in Apr to 56.0 in May (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/ff8d9f0c27f540ceb7dfc0610cdbbeb5). The Markit/BME Germany Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®), showing close association with Germany’s manufacturing conditions, decreased from 54.1 in Apr to 52.3 in May (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/faaf6eca88b84acb9c22661b96aac0b6). New export orders increased for the tenth consecutive month. Oliver Kolodseike, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds manufacturing average PMI in IIQ2014 still growing at the second fastest pace in about three years (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/faaf6eca88b84acb9c22661b96aac0b6).Table DE provides the country data table for Germany.
Table DE, Germany, Economic Indicators
| GDP | IQ2014 0.8 ∆%; I/Q2014/IQ2013 ∆% 2.5 2013/2012: 0.4% GDP ∆% 1970-2013 Blog 8/26/12 5/27/12 11/25/12 2/24/13 5/19/13 5/26/13 8/18/13 8/25/13 11/17/13 11/24/13 1/26/14 2/16/14 3/2/14 5/18/14 5/25/14 |
| Consumer Price Index | May month NSA ∆%: -0.1 |
| Producer Price Index | Apr month ∆%: -0.1 CSA, minus 0.1 |
| Industrial Production | MFG Apr month CSA ∆%: 0.2 |
| Machine Orders | MFG Apr month ∆%: 3.1 |
| Retail Sales | Apr Month ∆% -0.9 12-Month ∆% 3.4 Blog 6/1/14 |
| Employment Report | Unemployment Rate SA Apr 5.2% |
| Trade Balance | Exports Apr 12-month NSA ∆%: -0.2 Blog 6/8/14 |
Links to blog comments in Table DE:
6/8/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-risks-rules-discretionary.html
6/1/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-instability-mediocre-cyclical.html
5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html
5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html
3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html
2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html
1/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/01/capital-flows-exchange-rates-and.html
11/24/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html
11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html
8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html
8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html
VF France. Table VF-FR provides growth rates of GDP of France with the estimates of Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE). The long-term rate of GDP growth of France from IVQ1949 to IVQ2012 is quite high at 3.2 percent. France’s growth rates were quite high in the four decades of the 1950s, 1960, 1970s and 1980s with an average growth rate of 4.0 percent compounding the average rates in the decades and discounting to one decade. The growth impulse diminished with 2.0 percent in the 1990s and 1.8 percent from 2000 to 2007. The average growth rate from 2000 to 2012, using fourth quarter data, is 1.1 percent because of the sharp impact of the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. The growth rate from 2000 to 2012 is 1.1 percent. Cobet and Wilson (2002) provide estimates of output per hour and unit labor costs in national currency and US dollars for the US, Japan and Germany from 1950 to 2000 (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 137-44). The average yearly rate of productivity change from 1950 to 2000 was 2.9 percent in the US, 6.3 percent for Japan and 4.7 percent for Germany while unit labor costs in USD increased at 2.6 percent in the US, 4.7 percent in Japan and 4.3 percent in Germany. From 1995 to 2000, output per hour increased at the average yearly rate of 4.6 percent in the US, 3.9 percent in Japan and 2.6 percent in Germany while unit labor costs in US fell at minus 0.7 percent in the US, 4.3 percent in Japan and 7.5 percent in Germany. There was increase in productivity growth in the G7 in Japan and France in the second half of the 1990s but significantly lower than the acceleration of 1.3 percentage points per year in the US. Lucas (2011May) compares growth of the G7 economies (US, UK, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Canada) and Spain, finding that catch-up growth with earlier rates for the US and UK stalled in the 1970s.
Table VF-FR, France, Average Growth Rates of GDP Fourth Quarter, 1949-2012
| Period | Average ∆% |
| 1949-2013 | 3.2 |
| 2000-2013 | 1.1 |
| 2000-2012 | 1.1 |
| 2000-2007 | 1.8 |
| 1990-1999 | 2.0 |
| 1980-1989 | 2.6 |
| 1970-1979 | 3.7 |
| 1960-1969 | 5.7 |
| 1950-1959 | 4.2 |
Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques
http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=26&date=20140515
The Markit Flash France Composite Output Index decreased from 50.6 in Apr to 49.3 in May (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d349dc59325e4b8393f119abfcfe9764). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds continuing weak performance in IIQ2014 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d349dc59325e4b8393f119abfcfe9764). The Markit France Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing with close association with French GDP, decreased from 50.6 in Apr to 49.3 in May, indicating marginal contraction (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/622d5a75f32d4c13b89df0524159cca8). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the France Services PMI®, finds standstill in demand (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/622d5a75f32d4c13b89df0524159cca8). The Markit France Services Activity index decreased from 50.4 in Apr to 49.1 in May (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/622d5a75f32d4c13b89df0524159cca8). The Markit France Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index® decreased to 49.6 in May from 51.2 in Apr (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/09a850c5861b4429a8f101fd8b329be0). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the France Manufacturing PMI®, finds deteriorating conditions because of weakness in new orders (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/09a850c5861b4429a8f101fd8b329be0). Table FR provides the country data table for France.
Table FR, France, Economic Indicators
| CPI | May month ∆% 0.0 |
| PPI | Apr month ∆%: -0.2 Blog 6/1/14 |
| GDP Growth | IQ2014/IVQ2013 ∆%:0.0 |
| Industrial Production | Apr ∆%: |
| Consumer Spending | Manufactured Goods |
| Employment | Unemployment Rate: IQ2014 9.7% |
| Trade Balance | Apr Exports ∆%: month minus 0.7, 12 months minus 6.4 Apr Imports ∆%: month minus 2.9, 12 months minus 5.5 Blog 6/8/14 |
| Confidence Indicators | Historical average 100 May Mfg Business Climate 99.7 Blog 6/1/14 |
Links to blog comments in Table FR:
6/8/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-risks-rules-discretionary.html
6/1/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-instability-mediocre-cyclical.html
5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html
4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html
2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html
12/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/collapse-of-united-states-dynamism-of.html
11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html
9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html
6/30/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/tapering-quantitative-easing-policy-and.html
5/19/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/word-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html
Table VF-1 provides longer historical perspective of manufacturing in France. Output of manufacturing increased 0.3 percent in Apr 2014 and changed 0.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014. Manufacturing in France fell 14.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2008 and 4.1 percent in Dec 2009. Manufacturing recovered with growth of 5.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2010. Manufacturing fell 0.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2011 and 3.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2012. Manufacturing increased 0.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013.
Table VF-1, France, Manufacturing, Month and 12-Month ∆%
| Month ∆% | 12-Month ∆% | |
| Apr 2014 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Mar | -0.4 | 1.7 |
| Feb | 0.3 | 1.5 |
| Jan | 0.4 | 1.9 |
| Dec 2013 | 0.3 | 0.8 |
| Nov | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| Oct | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Sep | -0.7 | -1.4 |
| Aug | 1.0 | -3.3 |
| Jul | -0.8 | -2.2 |
| Jun | -0.2 | -0.3 |
| May | -0.8 | -0.2 |
| Apr | 2.0 | 0.1 |
| Mar | -0.6 | -3.8 |
| Feb | 0.7 | -1.3 |
| Jan | -0.7 | -4.1 |
| Dec 2012 | 0.9 | -3.5 |
| Nov | -0.8 | -6.2 |
| Oct | -1.4 | -3.3 |
| Sep | -2.6 | -2.3 |
| Aug | 2.2 | -0.6 |
| Jul | 1.1 | -2.6 |
| Jun | -0.1 | -3.4 |
| May | -0.5 | -5.3 |
| Apr | -2.0 | -3.2 |
| Mar | 2.0 | -2.2 |
| Feb | -2.2 | -5.3 |
| Jan | -0.1 | -2.7 |
| Dec 2011 | -1.9 | -0.5 |
| Nov | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| Oct | -0.4 | 2.0 |
| Sep | -0.9 | 1.4 |
| Aug | 0.1 | 3.7 |
| Jul | 0.3 | 3.3 |
| Jun | -2.1 | 3.4 |
| May | 1.7 | 4.9 |
| Apr | -1.0 | 3.9 |
| Mar | -1.2 | 5.4 |
| Feb | 0.6 | 9.1 |
| Jan | 2.1 | 8.4 |
| Dec 2013 | 0.8 | |
| Dec 2012 | -3.5 | |
| Dec 2011 | -0.5 | |
| Dec 2010 | 5.9 | |
| Dec 2009 | -4.1 | |
| Dec 2008 | -14.1 | |
| Dec 2007 | -0.9 | |
| Dec 2006 | 2.6 | |
| Dec 2005 | 0.7 | |
| Dec 2004 | 0.9 | |
| Dec 2003 | 0.3 | |
| Dec 2002 | -1.1 | |
| Dec 2001 | -5.4 | |
| Dec 2000 | 4.6 |
Source:
Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques
http://www.insee.fr/fr/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=10&date=20140610
Chart VF-1 of the Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques provides France’s index of manufacturing, adjusted for working days and seasonal effects, from Jan 1990 to Apr 2014. Growth was robust in the 1990s and in recovery from the 2001 recession. Manufacturing output fell sharply during the global recession followed by recovery and another trend of decline followed by increase.
Chart VF-1, France, Index of Manufacturing 2010=100, Jan 1990-Apr 2014, Seasonal and Working-Day Adjusted
Source:
Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques
http://www.insee.fr/fr/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=10&date=20140610
Chart VF-2 of France’s Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques shows indices of manufacturing in France from 2010 to 2014. Manufacturing, which is CZ in Chart VF-2, fell deeply in 2008 and part of 2009. All curves of industrial indices tend to flatten recently with oscillations and declines and marginal improvement followed by renewed decline/stability in the final segment with jump in Mar-Apr 2013. Manufacturing fell in May-Jul 2013 with mild recovery in Aug 2013 and decline in Sep 2013. Manufacturing increased in Oct-Nov 2013 and fell in Dec 2013. Manufacturing rebounded in Jan-Feb 2014, decreasing in Mar 2014. Manufacturing increased in Apr 2014.
Chart VF-2, France, Industrial Production Indices 2010-2014 Legend: CZ : Manufacturing – (C1) : Manufacture of food products and beverages – (C3) : Electrical and electronic equipment; machine equipment – (C4) : Manufacture of transport equipment – (C5) : Other manufacturing
Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques
http://www.insee.fr/fr/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=10&date=20140610
VG Italy. Table VG-IT provides percentage changes in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier of Italy’s expenditure components in chained volume measures. GDP has been declining at sharper rates from minus 0.6 percent in IVQ2011 to minus 2.8 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.4 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.2 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.9 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.9 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.9 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier. The aggregate demand components of consumption and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) have been declining at faster rates. The rates of decline of GDP, consumption and GFCF were somewhat milder in IIIQ2013 and IVQ2013 than in IQ2013 and the final three quarters of 2012. In IQ2014, consumption fell 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier and GFCF fell 1.3 percent.
Table VG-IT, Italy, GDP and Expenditure Components, Chained Volume Measures, Quarter ∆% on Same Quarter Year Earlier
| GDP | Imports | Consumption | GFCF | Exports | |
| 2013 | |||||
| IQ2014 | -0.5 | 1.3 | -0.3 | -1.3 | 3.3 |
| IVQ | -0.9 | -0.1 | -1.1 | -2.8 | 1.0 |
| IIIQ | -1.9 | -2.0 | -1.8 | -4.6 | -0.4 |
| IIQ | -2.2 | -4.4 | -2.8 | -4.8 | 0.0 |
| IQ | -2.4 | -5.0 | -3.0 | -6.1 | -0.7 |
| 2012 | |||||
| IVQ | -2.8 | -6.4 | -4.0 | -7.3 | 1.0 |
| IIIQ | -2.6 | -7.1 | -4.0 | -8.3 | 2.0 |
| IIQ | -2.4 | -7.0 | -3.4 | -8.5 | 2.2 |
| IQ | -1.7 | -7.9 | -3.2 | -8.1 | 3.0 |
| 2011 | |||||
| IVQ | -0.6 | -6.8 | -1.9 | -3.8 | 3.5 |
| IIIQ | 0.4 | 0.6 | -1.1 | -2.4 | 6.1 |
| IIQ | 1.1 | 3.6 | 0.3 | -1.0 | 7.5 |
| IQ | 1.4 | 9.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 11.0 |
| 2010 | |||||
| IVQ | 2.2 | 15.6 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 13.4 |
| IIIQ | 1.8 | 13.2 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 12.1 |
| IIQ | 1.8 | 13.4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 12.0 |
| IQ | 0.9 | 7.0 | 1.0 | -2.4 | 7.1 |
| 2009 | |||||
| IVQ | -3.5 | -6.3 | 0.2 | -8.2 | -9.3 |
| IIIQ | -5.0 | -12.2 | -0.8 | -12.6 | -16.4 |
| IIQ | -6.6 | -17.9 | -1.4 | -13.6 | -21.4 |
| IQ | -6.9 | -17.2 | -1.8 | -12.4 | -22.8 |
| 2008 | |||||
| IVQ | -3.0 | -8.2 | -0.9 | -8.3 | -10.3 |
| IIIQ | -1.9 | -5.0 | -0.8 | -4.5 | -3.9 |
| IIQ | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -1.5 | 0.4 |
| IQ | 0.5 | 1.7 | 0.1 | -1.0 | 2.9 |
GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation
Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica
http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/124710
The Markit/ADACI Business Activity Index increased from 51.1 in Apr to 51.6 in May (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/361c2cc3ce8c400aa0bea756f27388cb). Phil Smith, Economist at Markit and author of the Italy Services PMI®, finds limited contribution of services to growth with recovery mostly in production (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/361c2cc3ce8c400aa0bea756f27388cb). The Markit/ADACI Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®), decreased from 54.0 in Apr to 53.2 in May, which constitutes strong improvement in Italy’s manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/fa26dce1f4b446c9b05dd01256627789). New export orders was strong. Phil Smith, Economist at Markit and author of the Italian Manufacturing PMI®, finds continuing growth of manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/fa26dce1f4b446c9b05dd01256627789). Table IT provides the country data table for Italy.
Table IT, Italy, Economic Indicators
| Consumer Price Index | May month ∆%: -0.1 |
| Producer Price Index | Apr month ∆%: -0.3 Blog 6/1/14 |
| GDP Growth | IQ2014/IVQ2013 SA ∆%: minus 0.1 |
| Labor Report | Apr 2014 Participation rate 63.6% Employment ratio 55.4% Unemployment rate 12.6% Youth Unemployment 43.3% Blog 6/8/14 |
| Industrial Production | Apr month ∆%: 0.7 |
| Retail Sales | Mar month ∆%: -0.2 Mar 12-month ∆%: -3.5 Blog 5/25/14 |
| Business Confidence | Mfg May 99.7, Jan 97.7 Construction May 72.9, Jan 75.9 Blog 6/1/14 |
| Trade Balance | Balance Mar SA €3563 million versus Feb €3517 |
Links to blog comments in Table IT:
6/8/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-risks-rules-discretionary.html
6/1/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-instability-mediocre-cyclical.html
5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html
5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html
3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html
2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html
12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html
11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html
9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html
8/11/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/recovery-without-hiring-loss-of-full.html
6/16/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/recovery-without-hiring-seven-million.html
3/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html
Table VG-1 provides revised percentage changes of GDP in Italy of quarter on prior quarter and quarter on same quarter a year earlier. The GDP of Italy contracted 0.1 percent in IQ2014 and fell 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2013, interrupting nine consecutive quarterly declines, and fell 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy decreased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2013 and fell 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.3 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.6 percent in IQ2013 and declined 2.4 percent relative to IQ2012. GDP had been growing during six consecutive quarters but at very low rates from IQ2010 to IIQ2011. Italy’s GDP has fallen in nine consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IIIQ2013 at increasingly higher rates of contraction from 0.2 percent in IIIQ2011 to 0.7 percent in IVQ2011, 1.1 percent in IQ2012 and 0.5 percent in IIQ2012 but at lower 0.4 percent in IIIQ2012. The pace of decline accelerated to minus 0.9 percent in IVQ2012 and 0.6 percent in IQ2013, declining to minus 0.3 percent in IIQ2013 and 0.1 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP contracted cumulatively 4.7 percent in nine consecutive quarterly contractions from IIIQ2011 to IIIQ2013 at the annual equivalent rate of 2.1 percent. The yearly rate has fallen from 2.2 percent in IVQ2010 to minus 2.4 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.2 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.9 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.9 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.5 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier. The fiscal adjustment of Italy is significantly more difficult with the economy not growing especially on the prospects of increasing government revenue. The strategy is for reforms to improve productivity, facilitating future fiscal consolidation.
Table VG-1, Italy, GDP ∆%
| Quarter ∆% Relative to Preceding Quarter | Quarter ∆% Relative to Same Quarter Year Earlier | |
| IQ2014 | -0.1 | -0.5 |
| IVQ2013 | 0.1 | -0.9 |
| IIIQ2013 | -0.1 | -1.9 |
| IIQ2013 | -0.3 | -2.2 |
| IQ2013 | -0.6 | -2.4 |
| IVQ2012 | -0.9 | -2.8 |
| IIIQ2012 | -0.4 | -2.6 |
| IIQ2012 | -0.5 | -2.4 |
| IQ2012 | -1.1 | -1.7 |
| IVQ2011 | -0.7 | -0.6 |
| IIIQ2011 | -0.2 | 0.4 |
| IIQ2011 | 0.2 | 1.1 |
| IQ2011 | 0.1 | 1.4 |
| IVQ2010 | 0.3 | 2.2 |
| IIIQ2010 | 0.4 | 1.8 |
| IIQ2010 | 0.6 | 1.8 |
| IQ2010 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| IVQ2009 | -0.1 | -3.5 |
| IIIQ2009 | 0.4 | -5.0 |
| IIQ2009 | -0.3 | -6.6 |
| IQ2009 | -3.5 | -6.9 |
| IVQ2008 | -1.6 | -3.0 |
| IIIQ2008 | -1.3 | -1.9 |
| IIQ2008 | -0.5 | -0.2 |
| IQ2008 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| IV2007 | -0.4 | 0.1 |
| IIIQ2007 | 0.3 | 1.7 |
| IIQ2007 | 0.2 | 2.0 |
| IQ2007 | 0.0 | 2.4 |
Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica
http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/124710
Table VG-2 provides percentage changes in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier of Italy’s expenditure components in chained volume measures. GDP has been declining at sharper rates from minus 0.6 percent in IVQ2011 to minus 2.8 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.4 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.2 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.9 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.9 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.9 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier. The aggregate demand components of consumption and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) have been declining at faster rates. The rates of decline of GDP, consumption and GFCF were somewhat milder in IIIQ2013 and IVQ2013 than in IQ2013 and the final three quarters of 2012. In IQ2014, consumption fell 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier and GFCF fell 1.3 percent.
Table VG-2, Italy, GDP and Expenditure Components, Chained Volume Measures, Quarter ∆% on Same Quarter Year Earlier
| GDP | Imports | Consumption | GFCF | Exports | |
| 2013 | |||||
| IQ2014 | -0.5 | 1.3 | -0.3 | -1.3 | 3.3 |
| IVQ | -0.9 | -0.1 | -1.1 | -2.8 | 1.0 |
| IIIQ | -1.9 | -2.0 | -1.8 | -4.6 | -0.4 |
| IIQ | -2.2 | -4.4 | -2.8 | -4.8 | 0.0 |
| IQ | -2.4 | -5.0 | -3.0 | -6.1 | -0.7 |
| 2012 | |||||
| IVQ | -2.8 | -6.4 | -4.0 | -7.3 | 1.0 |
| IIIQ | -2.6 | -7.1 | -4.0 | -8.3 | 2.0 |
| IIQ | -2.4 | -7.0 | -3.4 | -8.5 | 2.2 |
| IQ | -1.7 | -7.9 | -3.2 | -8.1 | 3.0 |
| 2011 | |||||
| IVQ | -0.6 | -6.8 | -1.9 | -3.8 | 3.5 |
| IIIQ | 0.4 | 0.6 | -1.1 | -2.4 | 6.1 |
| IIQ | 1.1 | 3.6 | 0.3 | -1.0 | 7.5 |
| IQ | 1.4 | 9.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 11.0 |
| 2010 | |||||
| IVQ | 2.2 | 15.6 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 13.4 |
| IIIQ | 1.8 | 13.2 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 12.1 |
| IIQ | 1.8 | 13.4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 12.0 |
| IQ | 0.9 | 7.0 | 1.0 | -2.4 | 7.1 |
| 2009 | |||||
| IVQ | -3.5 | -6.3 | 0.2 | -8.2 | -9.3 |
| IIIQ | -5.0 | -12.2 | -0.8 | -12.6 | -16.4 |
| IIQ | -6.6 | -17.9 | -1.4 | -13.6 | -21.4 |
| IQ | -6.9 | -17.2 | -1.8 | -12.4 | -22.8 |
| 2008 | |||||
| IVQ | -3.0 | -8.2 | -0.9 | -8.3 | -10.3 |
| IIIQ | -1.9 | -5.0 | -0.8 | -4.5 | -3.9 |
| IIQ | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -1.5 | 0.4 |
| IQ | 0.5 | 1.7 | 0.1 | -1.0 | 2.9 |
GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation
Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica
http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/124710
Table VG-3 provides percentage changes in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier for GDP and value added components. Percentage declines of industry have been sharper from IVQ2011 to IVQ2013 than for services. Industry contracted 0.8 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier while services contracted 0.2 percent.
Table VG-3, Italy, GDP and Valued Added of Components, Chained Volume Measures, Quarter ∆% on Same Quarter Year Earlier
| Agriculture | Industry | Services | VAT and Net Taxes | GDP Market Prices | |
| % Value Added 2013 | 2.0 | 21.4 | 67.2 | ||
| IQ2014 | 0.2 | -0.8 | -0.2 | -1.5 | -0.5 |
| 2013 | |||||
| IV | 1.9 | -2.2 | -0.3 | -2.3 | -0.9 |
| IIIQ | 0.8 | -4.5 | -0.7 | -4.9 | -1.9 |
| IIQ | -1.9 | -4.3 | -1.1 | -4.7 | -2.2 |
| IQ | 0.4 | -4.3 | -1.4 | -5.2 | -2.4 |
| 2012 | |||||
| IVQ | -6.7 | -3.9 | -2.1 | -4.6 | -2.8 |
| IIIQ | -5.7 | -2.9 | -2.3 | -3.4 | -2.6 |
| IIQ | -1.1 | -4.2 | -1.5 | -4.6 | -2.4 |
| IQ | -3.5 | -3.9 | -0.5 | -3.7 | -1.7 |
| 2011 | |||||
| IVQ | 1.4 | -1.8 | 0.3 | -3.5 | -0.6 |
| IIIQ | 0.8 | -0.3 | 1.0 | -1.4 | 0.4 |
| IIQ | -0.4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | -0.2 | 1.1 |
| IQ | 0.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| 2010 | |||||
| IVQ | 0.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| IIIQ | -1.4 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| IIQ | 0.0 | 4.9 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 |
| IQ | 0.4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| 2009 | |||||
| IVQ | -3.7 | -7.4 | -2.4 | -2.0 | -3.5 |
| IIIQ | -0.3 | -13.3 | -2.1 | -4.3 | -5.0 |
| IIQ | -4.1 | -16.7 | -3.0 | -5.6 | -6.6 |
| IQ | -1.9 | -16.5 | -3.3 | -6.6 | -6.9 |
| 2008 | |||||
| IVQ | 2.2 | -8.2 | -1.3 | -2.1 | -3.0 |
| IIIQ | 1.0 | -3.9 | -1.2 | -1.7 | -1.9 |
| IIQ | 2.3 | -0.6 | 0.0 | -1.4 | -0.2 |
| IQ | 0.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | -0.1 | 0.5 |
Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica
http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/124710
Chart VG-1 of the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) provides growth of GDP of Italy at market prices. The year on year rate of growth pulled strongly out of the contraction. There is evident trend of deceleration with increasingly sharper contraction and mild moderation in 2013 and 2014.
Chart VG-1, Italy, GDP at Market Prices, ∆% on Same Quarter Year Earlier
Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica http://www.istat.it/en/
Italy’s industrial production increased 0.7 percent in Apr 2014 seasonally adjusted and increased 1.6 percent in 12 months calendar adjusted, as shown in Table VG-4. Industrial production decreased 0.4 percent in Mar 2014 and 0.1 percent in 12 months. Industrial production fell 0.4 percent in Feb 2014 but increased 0.4 percent in 12 months. Industrial production increased 1.1 percent in Jan 2014 and grew 1.3 percent in 12 months. Industrial production fell 0.8 percent in Dec 2013 and 1.2 percent in 12 months. Industrial production increased 0.1 percent in Nov 2013 and 0.9 percent CA relative to a year earlier. Industrial production increased 0.8 percent in Oct 2013 and fell 0.4 percent in 12 months. Industrial production increased 0.3 percent in Sep 2013 and fell 2.9 percent in 12 months. In Aug 2013, industrial production decreased 0.3 percent and fell 4.6 percent in 12 months. Industrial production decreased 0.5 percent in Jul 2013 and fell 3.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2013. In the quarter Sep-Nov 2012, industrial production fell cumulatively 3.9 percent, at the annual equivalent rate of 14.9 percent. Industrial production fell 7.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2012. There have been negative changes with oscillations in monthly industrial production. Industrial production fell 18.8 percent in 2009 after falling 3.2 percent in 2008. Industrial production fell 6.4 percent in 2012 and decreased 3.2 percent in 2013.
Table VG-4, Italy, Industrial Production ∆%
| Index CA | ∆% CA | Index | ∆% | |||
| 2012 | - | - | 94.7 | -6.4 | 94.3 | -6.1 |
| 2013 | - | - | 91.7 | -3.2 | 91.4 | -3.1 |
| Index SA | Quarter ∆% | Index CA | 4Q ∆% | Index | ∆% | |
| 2013 | ||||||
| IIQ | 91.4 | -0.5 | 94.9 | -3.9 | 94.6 | -3.6 |
| IIIQ | 91.3 | -0.1 | 87.2 | -3.6 | 87.0 | -2.0 |
| IVQ | 91.9 | 0.7 | 92.5 | -0.2 | 92.3 | -0.3 |
| 2014 | ||||||
| IQ | 92.1 | 0.2 | 92.7 | 0.4 | 91.5 | -0.1 |
| Index SA | Month ∆% | Index CA | 12-Month ∆% | Index NCA | Month ∆% | |
| 2012 | ||||||
| Apr | 95.0 | -1.5 | 93.2 | -9.3 | 89.4 | -12.1 |
| May | 95.7 | 0.7 | 104.1 | -5.7 | 105.4 | -5.7 |
| Jun | 94.2 | -1.6 | 99.1 | -7.0 | 99.5 | -7.0 |
| Jul | 94.7 | 0.5 | 108.6 | -5.6 | 107.6 | -2.6 |
| Aug | 95.4 | 0.7 | 61.4 | -4.8 | 62.2 | -4.7 |
| Sep | 94.1 | -1.4 | 101.4 | -4.7 | 96.5 | -10.5 |
| Oct | 92.8 | -1.4 | 101.2 | -5.7 | 103.4 | 0.4 |
| Nov | 91.7 | -1.2 | 95.6 | -7.7 | 96.0 | -7.7 |
| Dec | 92.3 | 0.7 | 81.3 | -7.1 | 78.4 | -10.0 |
| 2013 | ||||||
| Jan | 92.3 | 0.0 | 85.9 | -3.4 | 89.0 | -0.2 |
| Feb | 91.9 | -0.4 | 92.1 | -4.5 | 90.9 | -8.2 |
| Mar | 91.5 | -0.4 | 98.8 | -5.8 | 94.8 | -10.0 |
| Apr | 91.0 | -0.5 | 88.6 | -4.9 | 89.0 | -0.4 |
| May | 91.4 | 0.4 | 99.3 | -4.6 | 100.6 | -4.6 |
| Jun | 91.9 | 0.5 | 96.8 | -2.3 | 94.2 | -5.3 |
| Jul | 91.4 | -0.5 | 104.5 | -3.8 | 106.8 | -0.7 |
| Aug | 91.1 | -0.3 | 58.6 | -4.6 | 57.5 | -7.6 |
| Sep | 91.4 | 0.3 | 98.5 | -2.9 | 96.7 | 0.2 |
| Oct | 92.1 | 0.8 | 100.8 | -0.4 | 103.0 | -0.4 |
| Nov | 92.2 | 0.1 | 96.5 | 0.9 | 93.9 | -2.2 |
| Dec | 91.5 | -0.8 | 80.3 | -1.2 | 79.9 | 1.9 |
| 2014 | ||||||
| Jan | 92.5 | 1.1 | 87.0 | 1.3 | 87.3 | -1.9 |
| Feb | 92.1 | -0.4 | 92.5 | 0.4 | 91.3 | 0.4 |
| Mar | 91.7 | -0.4 | 98.7 | -0.1 | 96.0 | 1.3 |
| Apr | 92.3 | 0.7 | 90.0 | 1.6 | 89.1 | 0.1 |
SA: Seasonally Adjusted; CA: Calendar Adjusted Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica
http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/124673
Chart VG-1 provides 12-month percentage changes of Italy’s index of industrial production. Industrial production improved from decline of 4.9 percent the 12 months ending in Apr 2013 to increase of 1.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014.
Chart VG-2, Italy, Industrial Production, 12-Month Percentage Changes
Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica
VH United Kingdom. Annual data in Table VH-UK show the strong impact of the global recession in the UK with decline of GDP of 5.2 percent in 2009 after dropping 0.8 percent in 2008. Recovery of 1.7 percent in 2010 is relatively low in comparison with annual growth rates in 2007 and earlier years. Growth was only 1.1 percent in 2011 and 0.3 percent in 2012. Growth increased to 1.7 percent in 2013. The bottom part of Table VH-UK provides average growth rates of UK GDP since 1948. The UK economy grew at 2.6 percent per year on average between 1948 and 2013, which is relatively high for an advanced economy. The growth rate of GDP between 2000 and 2007 is higher at 3.0 percent. Growth in the current cyclical expansion has been only at 1.2 percent as advanced economies struggle with weak internal demand and world trade. GDP in 2013 was lower by 1.4 percent relative to 2007.
Table VH-UK, UK, Gross Domestic Product, ∆%
| ∆% on Prior Year | |
| 1998 | 3.6 |
| 1999 | 2.9 |
| 2000 | 4.4 |
| 2001 | 2.2 |
| 2002 | 2.3 |
| 2003 | 3.9 |
| 2004 | 3.2 |
| 2005 | 3.2 |
| 2006 | 2.8 |
| 2007 | 3.4 |
| 2008 | -0.8 |
| 2009 | -5.2 |
| 2010 | 1.7 |
| 2011 | 1.1 |
| 2012 | 0.3 |
| 2013 | 1.7 |
| Average Growth Rates ∆% per Year | |
| 1948-2013 | 2.6 |
| 1950-1959 | 2.7 |
| 1960-1969 | 3.3 |
| 1970-1979 | 2.5 |
| 1980-1989 | 3.2 |
| 1990-1999 | 2.9 |
| 2000-2007 | 3.0 |
| 2007-2012* | -3.0 |
| 2007-2013* | -1.4 |
| 2000-2013 | 1.5 |
*Absolute change from 2007 to 2012
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/second-estimate-of-gdp/q1-2014/index.html
The Business Activity Index of the Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI® decreased from 58.7 in Apr to 58.6 in May (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/9f094c86cf5944d081db5a32c18cdf30). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds the combined indices consistent with the UK economy growing at 0.8 percent in IIQ2014 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/9f094c86cf5944d081db5a32c18cdf30). The Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®) decreased to 57.0 in May from 57.3 in Apr (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c23c306f06834308a2aeb0e186d79cbd). New export orders increased for the fourteenth consecutive month. New orders increased from North America, Europe, Asia, Europe, New Zealand and the Middle East. Rob Dobson, Senior Economist at Markit that compiles the Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI®, finds that manufacturing conditions continue at solid pace with probable growth at 1.5 percent for IIQ2014 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c23c306f06834308a2aeb0e186d79cbd). Table UK provides the economic indicators for the United Kingdom.
Table UK, UK Economic Indicators
| CPI | Apr month ∆%: 0.4 |
| Output/Input Prices | Output Prices: Apr 12-month NSA ∆%: 0.6; excluding food, petroleum ∆%: 1.0 |
| GDP Growth | IQ2014 prior quarter ∆% 0.8; year earlier same quarter ∆%: 3.1 |
| Industrial Production | Apr 2014/Apr 2013 ∆%: Production Industries 3.0; Manufacturing 4.4 |
| Retail Sales | Apr month ∆%: 1.3 |
| Labor Market | Feb-Apr Unemployment Rate: 6.6%; Claimant Count 3.2%; Earnings Growth 0.7% |
| GDP and the Labor Market | IQ2014 Weekly Hours 102.8, GDP 99.3, Employment 103.1 IQ2008 =100 GDP IQ14 99.3 IQ2008=100 Blog 5/25/14 |
| Trade Balance | Balance SA Apr minus ₤2543 million |
Links to blog comments in Table UK:
6/8/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-risks-rules-discretionary.html
5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html
5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html
5/4/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html
4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html
3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html
2/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html
12/22/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html
12/1/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/exit-risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html
10/27/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/twenty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html
9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html
8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html
7/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html
5/26/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html
4/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_28.html
03/31/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html
The UK Office for National Statistics provides important analysis of the relation of GDP and the labor market (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q1-2014--may-gdp-update/index.html
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q1-2014--april-gdp-update/index.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2013-q4--march-gdp-update/index.html
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q4-2013--january-gdp-update/index.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q3-2013--december-gdp-update/index.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q3-2013--november-gdp-update/sum-nov-gdp.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q3-2013--october-gdp-update/sum-october-gdp.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2013-q2--august-labour-market-update/index.html
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2013-q1--may-labour-market-update/sum-may13-labour.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2013-q1--may-labour-market-update/index.html
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2012-q4--january-gdp-update/sum-jan13.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2012-q4--february-labour-market-update/sum-2012-q4---february-labour-update.html). The UK economy grew 0.8 percent in IVQ2013 but output is still 0.6 percent below the level before the global recession in IQ2008 (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q1-2014--april-gdp-update/index.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2013-q4--march-gdp-update/index.html
(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q4-2013--january-gdp-update/index.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q3-2013--december-gdp-update/sum-dec-gdp.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q3-2013--october-gdp-update/sum-october-gdp.html). Chart VH-1 of the UK Office for National Statistics (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q1-2014--may-gdp-update/index.html
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q1-2014--april-gdp-update/index.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q3-2013--october-gdp-update/sum-october-gdp.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2013-q1--may-labour-market-update/sum-may13-labour.html) shows weakening output but relatively faster increases in employment and hours worked. Output growth and labor market improvement are converging.
Chart VH-1, UK, Employment Level Ages 16 and Over, Total Weekly Hours, GDP and Output per Hour, 2008-2014
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q1-2014--may-gdp-update/index.html
Table VH-L1 of the UK Office for national Statistics provides the data for GDP and the labor market (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q1-2014--may-gdp-update/index.html
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q1-2014--april-gdp-update/index.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2013-q4--march-gdp-update/index.html
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q4-2013--february-gdp-update/index.html
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q4-2013--january-gdp-update/index.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q3-2013--december-gdp-update/sum-dec-gdp.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q3-2013--november-gdp-update/sum-nov-gdp.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q3-2013--october-gdp-update/sum-october-gdp.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2013-q2--august-labour-market update/index.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2013-q1--may-gdp-update/index.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2013-q1--may-labour-market-update/sum-may13-labour.html) provides total weekly hours, output and employment quarterly from 2008 to 2013. Improving output has been accompanied recently by improvements in hours worked and employment. From IQ2008 to IQ2014, employment increased 3.1 percent and hours worked 2.8 percent while GDP was still 0.7 percent lower. In IQ2014, GDP grew 0.8 percent relative to IVQ2013 and 3.1 percent relative to IQ2013 and is now only 0.7 percent below the peak in IQ2008 (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q1-2014--may-gdp-update/index.html).
Table VH-L1, UK, Indices of Quarterly Employment Ages 16 and Over, Total Hours Worked, GDP and Output per Hour, 2008-2014
| GDP, CVM | Employment, Aged 16 + | Total weekly hours, Aged 16 + | Output per hour worked | |
| YBEZ | MGRZ | YBUS | LZVB | |
| 2008 Q1 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Q2 | 99.1 | 100.1 | 98.9 | 99.6 |
| Q3 | 97.6 | 99.6 | 98.9 | 98.6 |
| Q4 | 95.6 | 99.4 | 98.3 | 96.4 |
| 2009 Q1 | 93.2 | 98.9 | 96.7 | 95.7 |
| Q2 | 92.8 | 97.9 | 96.3 | 95.1 |
| Q3 | 92.8 | 97.8 | 95.8 | 95.6 |
| Q4 | 93.2 | 97.9 | 95.8 | 94.5 |
| 2010 Q1 | 93.7 | 97.6 | 95.7 | 97.1 |
| Q2 | 94.6 | 98.2 | 96.5 | 96.4 |
| Q3 | 95.0 | 98.9 | 97.0 | 96.8 |
| Q4 | 94.8 | 98.7 | 97.4 | 96.1 |
| 2011 Q1 | 95.3 | 99.0 | 97.4 | 96.5 |
| Q2 | 95.4 | 99.0 | 96.3 | 97.9 |
| Q3 | 95.9 | 98.5 | 97.1 | 97.7 |
| Q4 | 95.8 | 98.8 | 97.3 | 97.4 |
| 2012 Q1 | 95.8 | 99.2 | 98.0 | 96.7 |
| Q2 | 95.5 | 99.9 | 98.5 | 95.8 |
| Q3 | 96.1 | 100.2 | 99.6 | 95.6 |
| Q4 | 95.9 | 100.8 | 99.8 | 95.1 |
| 2013 Q1 | 96.3 | 100.7 | 100.1 | 95.2 |
| Q2 | 97.1 | 100.9 | 100.4 | 95.7 |
| Q2 | 97.8 | 101.5 | 101.4 | 95.5 |
| Q4 | 98.5 | 102.2 | 101.8 | 95.7 |
| 2014 Q1 | 99.3 | 103.1 | 102.8 |
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q1-2014--may-gdp-update/index.html
Chart VH-2 of the UK Office for National Statistics provides comparison of output performance during four cycles in the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. Output is indexed to the pre-recession peak. For example, the index for the current economic cycles is 100 for IQ2008. Output performance was stronger in the earlier economic cycles.
Chart VH-2, UK, Index of Output in Economic Cycles
UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q4-2013--january-gdp-update/index.html
Table VH-L2 provides output in the four economic cycles. Output increased 8.8 percent in the cycle of the early 1970s, 11.7 percent in the cycle of the 1980s and 15.8 percent in the cycle of the 1990s. Output is 1.3 percent below the pre-recession peak in IQ2008.
Table VH-L2, Index of Output in Economic Cycles, Pre-Contraction = 100
| Early 70s (1973 Q2=100) | Early 80s (1979 Q4=100) | Early 90s (1990 Q2=100) | Latest (2008 Q1=100) |
| ABMI | ABMI | ABMI | ABMI |
| 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| 99.1 | 99.0 | 99.1 | 99.1 |
| 99.1 | 97.3 | 98.4 | 97.6 |
| 96.8 | 97.1 | 98.3 | 95.6 |
| 98.6 | 95.8 | 97.9 | 93.2 |
| 99.5 | 95.4 | 97.6 | 92.8 |
| 98.4 | 95.4 | 97.9 | 92.8 |
| 98.6 | 96.6 | 98.4 | 93.2 |
| 97.2 | 96.6 | 98.6 | 93.7 |
| 97.0 | 97.1 | 99.4 | 94.6 |
| 98.4 | 98.3 | 100.3 | 95.0 |
| 100.0 | 98.3 | 101.4 | 94.8 |
| 99.1 | 99.0 | 102.1 | 95.3 |
| 100.0 | 100.4 | 103.2 | 95.4 |
| 102.1 | 101.3 | 104.1 | 95.9 |
| 102.3 | 102.5 | 105.5 | 95.8 |
| 101.8 | 103.8 | 107.1 | 95.7 |
| 102.5 | 104.8 | 108.7 | 95.4 |
| 104.1 | 104.2 | 109.6 | 96.1 |
| 104.6 | 104.6 | 110.1 | 96.0 |
| 105.5 | 106.3 | 110.9 | 96.5 |
| 106.7 | 107.5 | 112.3 | 97.3 |
| 107.6 | 109.2 | 112.9 | 98.0 |
| 106.7 | 109.2 | 114.2 | 98.7 |
| 111.3 | 110.1 | 114.8 | |
| 108.8 | 111.7 | 115.8 |
UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q4-2013--january-gdp-update/index.html
Labor market statistics of the UK for the quarter Feb 2014-Feb 2014 are provided in Table VH-L2. The unemployment rate fell to 6.6 percent and the number unemployed decreased 347,000 in the year, reaching 2.165 million. The employment rate is 72.9 percent. Earnings growth including bonuses increased 0.7 percent over the earlier year. The claimant count or those receiving unemployment benefits stands at 3.2 percent, down 0.1 percentage points on the month and down 1.2 percentage points on the year.
Table VH-L2, UK, Labor Market Statistics
| Quarter Feb 2014-Apr 2014 | |
| Unemployment Rate | 6.6%, 7.2% prior quarter and 7.8% year earlier |
| Number Unemployed | (1) Down 161,000 on quarter and down 347,000 from year earlier to reach 2.165 million (2) Unemployment rate 16 to 24 years of age 19.0% of that age group (3) Unemployed 16 to 24 years excluding those in full-time education 566,000 (287,000 in full-time education); unemployment rate 18.5% down 1.3 % Points |
| Number Unemployed > one and two years | (1) Number unemployed over one year: 791,000, down 37,000 on quarter, down 108,000 on year (2) Number unemployed over two years: 430,000, down 20,000 on quarter, down 28,000 on year |
| Inactivity Rate 16-64 Years of Age (Definition: Not in employment but have not been seeking employment in the past four weeks or are unable to start work in two weeks) | (1) 21.8%, 22.1% prior quarter, 22.4% year earlier (2) Economically inactive 16-64 years down 80,000 on quarter and down 178,000 on year to 8.816 million |
| Employment Rate | 72.9%, 72.3% prior quarter, 71.5 % year earlier |
| Number Employed | (1) Up 345,000 on quarter, +780,000 on year to 30.535 million (2) Number of employees up 458,000 on year to 25.752 million (3) Self-employed rose 337,000 on year to 4.537 million (4) Full-time 19.022 million, up 441,000 on year (5) 6.730 million working part-time, up 17,000 on year |
| Earnings Growth Rates Year on Year | (1) Total +0.7% (including bonuses) over year earlier; regular 0.9%; private sector 0.6% on year earlier, public sector 1.0% on year earlier (2) Regular private 1.0% (excluding bonuses); regular public 0.9% on year earlier |
| Full-time and Part-time | (1) Number employees full-time 19.022 million, up 441,000 on year; self-employed full-time 3.251 million up 226,000 on year (2) Number employees part-time 6.730 million, up 17,000 on year; self-employed part-time 1.286 million, up 111,000 in year |
| Claimant Count (Jobseeker’s Allowance, JSA) | (1) Latest estimate: 1.086 million; down 27,400 in month, down 406,300 on year earlier (2) Claimant count 3.2%, down 0.1 on month and down 1.2 % points on year |
| Labor Productivity | (1) Output per worker rose 0.3% from IIIQ2013 to IVQ2013 and 0.7% from IVQ2012 |
Note: Labor Force Survey does not measure monthly changes. Comparisons on quarter are on quarter before prior quarter
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/june-2014/index.html
Table VH-L3 provides indicators of the labor force survey of the UK for Feb 2014-Apr 2014 and earlier quarters. There has been improvement in UK labor markets with the rate of unemployment decreasing from 7.8 percent in Feb-Apr 2013 to 6.6 percent in Feb-Apr 2014.
Table VH-L3, UK, Labor Force Survey Indicators
| LFHP | EMP | PART | UNE | RATE | |
| Feb-Apr 2012 | 40,183 | 29,324 | 70.7 | 2,599 | 8.1 |
| Feb-Apr 2013 | 40,237 | 29,756 | 71.5 | 2,511 | 7.8 |
| May-Jul 2013 | 40,253 | 29,836 | 71.6 | 2,487 | 7.7 |
| Aug-Oct 2013 | 40,299 | 30,086 | 72.0 | 2,388 | 7.4 |
| Nov-Jan 2013 | 40,344 | 30,191 | 72.3 | 2,326 | 7.2 |
| Feb-Apr 2014 | 40,389 | 30,535 | 72.9 | 2,165 | 6.6 |
Notes: LFHP: Labor Force Household Population Ages 16 to 64 in thousands; EMP: Employed Ages 16 and over in thousands; PART: Employment as % of Population Ages 16 to 64; UNE: Unemployed Ages 16 and over in thousands; Rate: Number Unemployed Ages 16 and over as % of Employed plus Unemployed
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/june-2014/index.html
The UK Office for National Statistics provides the output of production industries with revisions. Table VH-1 incorporates the revisions released in Dec 2011 (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/iop/index-of-production/november-2012/index.html) and the latest available data for Feb 2014. Manufacturing accounts for 68.4 percent of the production industries of the UK and increased 4.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014. Capital goods industries increased 4.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014 after increasing 2.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2014 and 3.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2014. Output of capital goods industries decreased 1.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013, increasing 1.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2013. Capital goods industries fell 2.3 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2013, grew 2.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2013 and had been growing at very high rates during the current cyclical recovery but falling from the unsustainable high of 12.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2011. Mining and quarrying increased 11.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2013 and 3.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013, decreasing 1.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2014. Mining and quarrying increased 2.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014. The 12-month rates of growth of the entire index of production industries registered declines for all 12 months from Mar 2011 to Aug 2013 with exception of 1.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2013. With exception of most months for capital goods and Sep to Dec 2012 for consumer durables, 12-month percentage changes of all segments are mostly negative from Jan to Dec 2012. Energy and mining have been drivers of decline. The upper part of Table VH-1 provides rates of change of yearly output. Manufacturing output fell 10.2 percent in 2009 after falling 2.8 percent in 2008 but grew at 4.2 percent in the initial phase of the recovery in 2010 and 1.8 percent in 2011 but fell 1.7 percent in 2012. Manufacturing fell 0.7 percent in 2013.
Table VH-1, UK, Output of the Production Industries, Chained Volume Indices of Gross Value Added, 12-Month ∆%
| PROD IND | MNG | MFG | CON DUR | CON NDUR | CAP | ENERGY | |
| 2009 | -9.5 | -9.7 | -10.2 | -6.8 | -0.8 | -12.1 | -6.5 |
| 2010 | 2.8 | -2.4 | 4.2 | -4.1 | -0.3 | 10.4 | -2.5 |
| 2011 | -1.2 | -14.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | -0.7 | 6.7 | -10.7 |
| 2012 | -2.4 | -8.7 | -1.7 | -3.1 | -3.8 | 1.5 | -7.0 |
| 2013 | -0.4 | -2.5 | -0.8 | -2.3 | -1.2 | 1.0 | -3.5 |
| PROD IND | MNG | MFG | CON | CON | CAP | ENERGY | ||
| 2012 | Feb | -1.6 | -6.7 | -1.4 | -6.9 | -0.3 | -1.0 | -4.4 |
| Mar | -2.0 | -5.3 | -0.9 | -6.4 | -1.7 | 1.4 | -7.8 | |
| Apr | -1.3 | -9.7 | -1.2 | -2.7 | -5.0 | 2.7 | -5.9 | |
| May | -1.4 | -5.6 | -1.2 | -3.4 | -5.9 | 2.8 | -4.4 | |
| Jun | -4.0 | -3.0 | -4.0 | -10.9 | -6.3 | 0.3 | -4.8 | |
| Jul | -0.7 | -0.4 | -0.8 | -3.5 | -5.0 | 4.4 | -3.6 | |
| Aug | -0.9 | 1.5 | -1.5 | -2.9 | -3.9 | 2.1 | -2.4 | |
| Sep | -3.7 | -16.1 | -1.6 | 1.2 | -1.7 | 0.1 | -11.9 | |
| Oct | -3.7 | -18.8 | -2.5 | 4.1 | -4.7 | 0.1 | -10.7 | |
| Nov | -2.9 | -11.8 | -2.8 | 0.5 | -5.5 | -0.5 | -6.9 | |
| Dec | -3.0 | -8.1 | -2.7 | 0.7 | -6.3 | 1.1 | -5.7 | |
| 2013 | Jan | -3.1 | -5.1 | -4.1 | -1.4 | -6.1 | 0.1 | -3.2 |
| Feb | -2.3 | -7.5 | -2.6 | -4.5 | -5.7 | 3.0 | -7.4 | |
| Mar | -1.9 | -11.7 | -1.9 | 0.1 | -4.9 | 2.2 | -3.5 | |
| Apr | -1.4 | -5.3 | -1.4 | -2.3 | -0.3 | 2.5 | -4.2 | |
| May | -2.4 | -1.4 | -3.4 | -4.8 | -0.1 | -2.3 | -3.4 | |
| Jun | 1.3 | -3.3 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | -5.7 | |
| Jul | -1.4 | -7.3 | -1.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.7 | -6.4 | |
| Aug | -1.7 | -9.8 | -1.0 | -3.3 | -2.9 | 0.1 | -7.9 | |
| Sep | 2.0 | 10.9 | 0.1 | -2.5 | -1.5 | 1.1 | 3.3 | |
| Oct | 2.7 | 11.1 | 1.9 | -5.2 | 1.1 | 2.9 | 0.5 | |
| Nov | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.9 | -2.9 | 1.3 | 1.4 | -1.9 | |
| Dec | 1.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | -2.9 | 3.1 | -1.8 | -0.6 | |
| 2014 | Jan | 2.3 | -1.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | -1.3 | 2.6 | -6.1 |
| Feb | 2.5 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 3.3 | -4.4 | |
| Mar | 2.5 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 3.6 | 2.0 | -4.5 | |
| Apr | 3.0 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 4.4 | -4.9 |
Notes: PROD IND: Production Industries; MNG: Mining; MFG: Manufacturing; ENGY: Energy; CON DUR: Consumer Durables; CONS NDUR: Consumer Nondurables; CAP: Capital Goods
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/iop/index-of-production/april-2014/index.html
Percentage changes in the production industries and major components in a month relative to the prior month are shown in Table VH-2. The UK index of production increased 0.4 percent in Apr 2014 with growth of manufacturing of 0.4 percent and increase of capital goods of 1.6 percent. Energy decreased 1.6 percent and mining and quarrying 2.8 percent. The production index increased 0.1 percent in Mar 2014 with growth of manufacturing of 0.5 percent and capital goods of 0.2 percent. The index of production increased 0.9 percent in Feb 2009 with growth of manufacturing of 1.1 percent and of capital goods of 1.0 percent. The index of production fell 0.2 percent in Jan 2014 with manufacturing increasing 0.3 percent and capital goods 2.0 percent. The index of production increased 0.3 percent in Dec 2013 with manufacturing increasing 0.5 percent. Mining and quarrying increased 3.4 percent in Dec 2013 and capital goods fell 0.9 percent. Energy increased 1.0 percent. The index of production fell 0.1 percent in Nov 2013 with manufacturing decreasing 0.2 percent while capital goods fell 0.9 percent. There is significant fluctuation in monthly percentage changes. Many segments fell in May and Apr 2013. Capital goods industries fell 2.4 percent in Jan 2013 and increased 1.4 percent in Mar and 3.3 percent in Jun while manufacturing fell 1.5 percent in Jan 2013 but increased 1.1 percent in Mar and 2.1 percent in Jun. Performance was strong in Dec 2012 with growth of manufacturing of 1.1 percent and capital goods of 2.3 percent. Fluctuations of monthly production are quite wide.
Table VH-2, UK, Output of the Production Industries, Chained Volume Indices of Gross Value Added, Latest Month on Previous Month ∆%
| PROD IND | MNG | MFG | CON DUR | CON NDUR | CAP | ENERGY | ||
| 2012 | Feb | 0.0 | 2.5 | -1.3 | -0.8 | -0.9 | -2.5 | 4.0 |
| Mar | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | -0.4 | 2.3 | -4.4 | |
| Apr | -0.6 | -3.8 | -1.0 | 1.3 | -3.0 | -1.1 | 1.0 | |
| May | 0.9 | -1.0 | 1.3 | - | - | 2.3 | - | |
| Jun | -2.3 | 2.6 | -2.9 | -3.3 | -1.2 | -1.3 | -0.1 | |
| Jul | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 1.4 | |
| Aug | -0.7 | 1.8 | -1.3 | -1.9 | 0.3 | -2.5 | 0.8 | |
| Sep | -2.7 | -18.3 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | -10.6 | |
| Oct | -0.7 | -1.4 | -1.7 | 2.4 | -3.2 | -1.0 | 0.7 | |
| Nov | 0.6 | 7.7 | -0.2 | -2.7 | -1.0 | 0.7 | 3.4 | |
| Dec | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 2.3 | -0.3 | |
| 2013 | Jan | -0.8 | 1.9 | -1.5 | -1.5 | 1.0 | -2.4 | 1.8 |
| Feb | 0.8 | -0.1 | 0.3 | -3.9 | -0.5 | 0.4 | -0.6 | |
| Mar | 0.1 | -4.4 | 1.1 | 5.1 | 0.4 | 1.4 | -0.3 | |
| Apr | -0.1 | 3.2 | -0.5 | -1.1 | 1.7 | -0.8 | 0.3 | |
| May | -0.1 | 3.2 | -0.8 | -2.6 | 0.2 | -2.5 | 0.9 | |
| Jun | 1.3 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 3.3 | -2.5 | |
| Jul | 0.1 | -0.5 | - | 2.9 | -0.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | |
| Aug | -0.9 | -0.9 | -1.0 | -5.6 | -2.7 | -3.0 | -0.9 | |
| Sep | 1.0 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | |
| Oct | - | -1.3 | 0.1 | -0.3 | -0.7 | 0.8 | -2.1 | |
| Nov | -0.1 | -1.7 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.8 | -0.9 | 0.9 | |
| Dec | 0.3 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 2.1 | -0.9 | 1.0 | |
| 2014 | Jan | -0.2 | -3.6 | 0.3 | 2.4 | -3.3 | 2.0 | -3.8 |
| Feb | 0.9 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | |
| Mar | 0.1 | -0.9 | 0.5 | -0.6 | 1.3 | 0.2 | -0.4 | |
| Apr | 0.4 | -1.1 | 0.4 | 2.5 | -0.3 | 1.6 | -0.2 |
Notes: PROD IND: Production Industries; MNG: Mining; MFG: Manufacturing; ENGY: Energy; CON DUR: Consumer Durables; CONS NDUR: Consumer Nondurables; CAP: Capital Goods
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/iop/index-of-production/april-2014/index.html
Weights of components of the production index and contributions by components to the monthly and 12-month percentage changes of volume are provided by the UK Office for National Statistics and shown in Table VH-3. The 12-month rate of output of the production industries of 3.0 percent was driven by positive contribution of 3.10 percentage points by manufacturing and 0.61 percentage points by water and sewage. The contribution of manufacturing is strong because of its share of 68.4 percent in the production index with growth of 4.4 percent in 12 months. The contributions do not add exactly because of rounding. Mining and quarrying added 0.26 percentage points to the output of the production industries in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014. Manufacturing increased 0.4 percent in Apr 2014, adding 0.28 percentage points. Mining decreased 1.1 percent in Apr 2014, deducting 0.13 percentage points. Electricity increased 3.7 percent in Apr, adding 0.27 percentage points.
Table VH-3, UK, Weights of Components, Volume 12-Month and Month ∆% and Percentage Point Contributions of Production Industries by Components
| Weight % | Volume 12-Month ∆% Ending in Apr 2014 | % Point | Volume | % Point | |
| PROD | 100.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| MNG | 15.1 | 2.2 | 0.26 | -1.1 | -0.13 |
| Division 06 | 12.4 | 2.3 | 0.19 | -2.2 | -0.18 |
| MFG | 68.4 | 4.4 | 3.10 | 0.4 | 0.28 |
| ELEC | 8.6 | -11.5 | -1.02 | 3.7 | 0.27 |
| WATER | 7.9 | 7.1 | 0.61 | -0.7 | -0.07 |
Notes: Cont: Contribution; PROD IND: Index of Production; MNG: Mining and Quarrying (of which 14.4 percent of the total weight in oil and gas extraction); MNG 06: Subdivision of Mining including oil and gas extraction; MFG: Manufacturing; ELEC: Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning; WATER & SEW: water supply, sewerage and waste management
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/iop/index-of-production/april-2014/index.html
Table VH-4 provides the breakdown of production in 12-month and monthly growth and percentage contributions.
Table VH-4, UK, Growth Rates and Percentage Point Contributions to the Index of Production
| Sector | Summary Description | % of production | Month on same month a year ago growth (%) | Contribution to production (% points) |
| IoP | Index of Production | 100.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| B | Total Mining & Quarrying | 15.1 | 2.2 | 0.26 |
| 5 | Coal & Lignite | 0.2 | -38.6 | -0.05 |
| 6 | Crude petroleum & Natural gas | 12.4 | 2.3 | 0.19 |
| 786 | Other mining & Quarrying | 2.5 | 63.8 | 0.11 |
| C | Total Manufacturing | 68.4 | 4.4 | 3.10 |
| CA | Food, beverages and tobacco | 10.9 | 6.6 | 0.74 |
| CB | Textiles and leather products | 2.1 | 2.7 | 0.05 |
| CC | Wood, paper and printing | 5.5 | -0.5 | -0.02 |
| CD | Coke and petroleum | 1.7 | -14.9 | -0.24 |
| CE | Chemical Products | 4.2 | 4.3 | 0.18 |
| CF | Pharmaceutical Products | 6.4 | -5.8 | -0.33 |
| CG | Rubber and plastic products | 5.7 | 18.0 | 0.96 |
| CH | Metal products | 7.7 | 1.6 | 0.13 |
| CI | Computer, electronic & optical | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.08 |
| CJ | Electrical equipment | 2.1 | -1.4 | -0.03 |
| CK | Machinery and equipment | 5.0 | 5.5 | 0.28 |
| CL | Transport equipment | 7.7 | 8.9 | 0.86 |
| CM | Other manufacturing & repair | 5.4 | 7.8 | 0.45 |
| D | Total Electricity & Gas | 8.6 | -11.5 | -1.02 |
| 35.1 | Electric power generation, transmission & distribution | 6.0 | -7.2 | -0.47 |
| 35.2-3 | Manufacture of gas; distribution of gaseous fuels through mains; steam & aircon supply | 2.6 | -23.3 | -0.55 |
| E | Total Water | 7.9 | 7.1 | 0.61 |
| 36 | Water collection, Treatment & Supply | 2.1 | 3.3 | 0.08 |
| 37 | Sewerage | 2.2 | 5.4 | 0.13 |
| 38 | Waste Collection, Treatment & Disposal Activities; Materials Recovery | 3.6 | 10.6 | 0.4 |
| 39 | Remediation Activities & Other Waste Management Services | 0.1 | 11.2 | 0.01 |
| Sector | Summary Description | % of production | Month on previous month growth (%) | Contribution to production (% points) |
| IoP | Index of Production | 100.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| B | Total Mining & Quarrying | 15.1 | -1.1 | -0.13 |
| 5 | Coal & Lignite | 0.2 | -19.9 | -0.02 |
| 6 | Crude petroleum & Natural gas | 12.4 | -2.2 | -0.18 |
| 786 | Other mining & Quarrying | 2.5 | 13.1 | 0.08 |
| C | Total Manufacturing | 68.4 | 0.4 | 0.28 |
| CA | Food, beverages and tobacco | 10.9 | -0.2 | -0.03 |
| CB | Textiles and leather products | 2.1 | -0.5 | -0.01 |
| CC | Wood, paper and printing | 5.5 | 0.7 | 0.03 |
| CD | Coke and petroleum | 1.7 | -4.5 | -0.06 |
| CE | Chemical Products | 4.2 | -0.4 | -0.02 |
| CF | Pharmaceutical Products | 6.4 | -0.7 | -0.04 |
| CG | Rubber and plastic products | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.11 |
| CH | Metal products | 7.7 | -0.3 | -0.02 |
| CI | Computer, electronic & optical | 4.3 | 2.9 | 0.13 |
| CJ | Electrical equipment | 2.1 | -0.4 | -0.01 |
| CK | Machinery and equipment | 5.0 | -0.2 | -0.01 |
| CL | Transport equipment | 7.7 | 1.7 | 0.17 |
| CM | Other manufacturing & repair | 5.4 | 0.6 | 0.04 |
| D | Total Electricity & Gas | 8.6 | 3.7 | 0.27 |
| 35.1 | Electric power generation, transmission & distribution | 6.0 | 6.4 | 0.36 |
| 35.2-3 | Manufacture of gas; distribution of gaseous fuels through mains; steam & aircon supply | 2.6 | -4.5 | -0.08 |
| E | Total Water | 7.9 | -0.7 | -0.07 |
| 36 | Water collection, Treatment & Supply | 2.1 | -1.6 | -0.04 |
| 37 | Sewerage | 2.2 | -2 | -0.05 |
| 38 | Waste Collection, Treatment & Disposal Activities; Materials Recovery | 3.6 | 0.5 | 0.02 |
| 39 | Remediation Activities & Other Waste Management Services | 0.1 | 2.3 | 0.00 |
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/iop/index-of-production/april-2014/index.html
© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014.
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