Total Nonfarm Hires Move from 4986 Thousand in Feb 2020 and 4263 Thousand in Apr 2020 to 6966 Thousand in Aug 2021 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021), Recovery Without Hiring in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth Underperforming Below Trend Worldwide, Ten Million Fewer Full-Time Jobs, Youth and Middle Age Unemployment, United States International Trade, United States Current Account of Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, US Net International Investment Position Increases to $15.42 in Trillion in IIQ2021 Adding to Major Fiscal and Monetary Imbalances, Stagflation Risk, World Cyclical Slow Growth, and Government Intervention in Globalization
Carlos M. Pelaez
© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021.
IA1 Hiring Collapse
IA2 Labor Underutilization
ICA3 Fifteen Million Fewer Full-time Jobs
IA4 Theory and Reality of Cyclical Slow Growth Not Secular Stagnation: Youth and Middle-Age Unemployment
IIA United States International Trade
II United States Current Account of Balance of Payments and International Investment Position
III World Financial Turbulence
IV Global Inflation
V World Economic Slowdown
VA United States
VB Japan
VC China
VD Euro Area
VE Germany
VF France
VG Italy
VH United Kingdom
VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets
VII Economic Indicators
VIII Interest Rates
IX Conclusion
References
Appendixes
Appendix I The Great Inflation
IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies
IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact
IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort
IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis
V World Economic Slowdown. Table V-1 is constructed with the database of the IMF (https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/index.aspx) to show GDP in dollars in 2018 and the growth rate of real GDP of the world and selected regional countries from 2018 to 2021. The data illustrate the concept often repeated of “two-speed recovery” of the world economy from the recession of 2007 to 2009. There is a major change in the sharp contraction of world real GDP of 3.1 percent in 2020 in the probable global recession originating in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The IMF has changed its measurement of growth of the world economy to 3.6 percent in 2018 and reducing the forecast rate of growth to 2.9 percent in 2019, minus 3.1 percent in 2020 and 5.8 percent in 2021. Slow-speed recovery occurs in the “major advanced economies” of the G7 that are projected to grow at much lower rates than world output, 0.4 percent on average from 2018 to 2021, in contrast with 2.2 percent for the world as a whole. While the world would grow 9.3 percent in the four years from 2018 to 2021, the G7 as a whole would grow 1.6 percent. The “two speed” concept is in reference to the growth of the 150 countries labeled as emerging and developing economies (EMDE). The EMDEs would grow cumulatively 14.2 percent or at the average yearly rate of 3.4 percent.
Table V-1, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Real GDP Growth
| GDP USD Billions 2018 | Real GDP ∆% | Real GDP ∆% | Real GDP ∆% | Real GDP ∆% | |
| World | 135,762 | 3.6 | 2.9 | -3.1 | 5.8 |
| G7 | 40,783 | 2.0 | 1.6 | -6.2 | 4.5 |
| Canada | 1,842 | 2.0 | 1.6 | -6.2 | 4.3 |
| France | 2,970 | 1.7 | 1.3 | -7.2 | 4.5 |
| DE | 4,343 | 1.5 | 0.6 | -7.0 | 5.2 |
| Italy | 2,406 | 0.8 | 0.3 | -9.1 | 4.8 |
| Japan | 5,578 | 0.3 | 0.7 | -5.2 | 3.0 |
| UK | 3,065 | 1.3 | 1.4 | -6.5 | 4.0 |
| US | 20,580 | 2.9 | 2.3 | -5.9 | 4.7 |
| Euro Area | NA | 1.9 | 1.2 | -7.5 | 4.7 |
| DE | 4,343 | 1.5 | 0.6 | -7.0 | 5.2 |
| France | 2,970 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 7.2 | 4.5 |
| Italy | 2,406 | 0.8 | 0.3 | -9.1 | 4.8 |
| POT | 334 | 2.6 | 2.2 | -8.0 | 5.0 |
| Ireland | 389 | 8.3 | 5.5 | -6.8 | 6.3 |
| Greece | 312 | 1.9 | 1.9 | -10.0 | 5.1 |
| Spain | 1,854 | 2.4 | 2.0 | -8.0 | 4.3 |
| EMDE | 80,401 | 4.5 | 3.7 | -1.1 | 6.6 |
| Brazil | 3,383 | 1.3 | 1.1 | -5.3 | 2.9 |
| Russia | 4,258 | 2.5 | 1.3 | -5.5 | 3.5 |
| India | 10,413 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 7.4 |
| China | 25,294 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 1.2 | 9.2 |
Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries); POT: Portugal
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook databank
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/index.aspx
Continuing high rates of unemployment in advanced economies constitute another characteristic of the database of the WEO (Continuing high rates of unemployment in advanced economies constitute another characteristic of the database of the WEO (https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2019/02/weodata/index.aspx). Table V-2 is constructed with the WEO database to provide rates of unemployment from 2017 to 2021 for major countries and regions. In fact, unemployment rates for 2017 in Table V-2 are high for all countries: unusually high for countries with high rates most of the time and unusually high for countries with low rates most of the time. The rates of unemployment are particularly high in 2017 for the countries with sovereign debt difficulties in Europe: 8.9 percent for Portugal (POT), 6.7 percent for Ireland, 21.5 percent for Greece, 17.2 percent for Spain and 11.3 percent for Italy, which is lower but still high. The G7 rate of unemployment is 5.0 percent. Unemployment rates are not likely to decrease substantially if relative slow cyclical growth persists in advanced economies. There are sharp increases in the rates of unemployment in 2020 in the probable global recession originating in the lockdown of economy activity in the COVID-19 event. The rate of unemployment increases to 7.8 percent for the G7 countries and 10.4 percent for the euro area.
Table V-2, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Unemployment Rate as Percent of Labor Force
| % Labor Force 2017 | % Labor Force 2018 | % Labor Force 2019 | % Labor Force 2020 | % Labor Force 2021 | |
| World | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| G7 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 7.8 | 6.9 |
| Canada | 6.3 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 7.2 |
| France | 9.4 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 10.4 | 10.4 |
| DE | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 3.5 |
| Italy | 11.3 | 10.6 | 10.0 | 12.7 | 10.5 |
| Japan | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 2.3 |
| UK | 4.4 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 4.4 |
| US | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 10.4 | 9.1 |
| Euro Area | 9.1 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 10.4 | 8.9 |
| DE | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 3.5 |
| France | 9.4 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 10.4 | 10.4 |
| Italy | 11.3 | 10.6 | 10.0 | 12.7 | 10.5 |
| POT | 8.9 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 13.9 | 8.7 |
| Ireland | 6.7 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 12.1 | 7.9 |
| Greece | 21.5 | 19.3 | 17.3 | 22.3 | 19.0 |
| Spain | 17.2 | 15.3 | 14.1 | 20.8 | 17.5 |
| EMDE | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Brazil | 12.8 | 12.3 | 11.9 | 14.7 | 13.5 |
| Russia | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 4.8 |
| India | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| China | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 3.8 |
Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries)
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/index.aspx
There are references to adverse periods as “lost decades.” There is a more prolonged and adverse period in Table V-3A: the lost economic cycle of the Global Recession with economic growth underperforming below trend worldwide. Economic contractions were relatively high but not comparable to the decline of GDP during the Great Depression. In fact, during the Great Depression in the four years of 1930 to 1933, US GDP in constant dollars fell 26.3 percent cumulatively and fell 45.3 percent in current dollars (Pelaez and Pelaez, Financial Regulation after the Global Recession (2009a), 150-2, Pelaez and Pelaez, Globalization and the State, Vol. II (2009b), 205-7 and revisions in http://bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). Data are available for the 1930s only on a yearly basis. The contraction of GDP in the current cycle of the Global Recession was much lower, 3.8 percent (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/10/us-gdp-growing-at-67-saar-in-iiq2021-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/08/us-gdp-growing-at-66-saar-in-iiq2021-in.html). US economic growth has been at only 2.1 percent on average in the cyclical expansion in the 48 quarters from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2021 and in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021). Boskin (2010Sep) measures that the US economy grew at 6.2 percent in the first four quarters and 4.5 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the second quarter of 1975; and at 7.7 percent in the first four quarters and 5.8 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the first quarter of 1983 (Professor Michael J. Boskin, Summer of Discontent, Wall Street Journal, Sep 2, 201 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882304575465462926649950.html). There are new calculations using the revision of US GDP and personal income data since 1929 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) and the third estimate of GDP for IIQ2021 (https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2021-09/gdp2q21_3rd.pdf). The average of 7.7 percent in the first four quarters of major cyclical expansions is in contrast with the rate of growth in the first four quarters of the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010 of only 2.9 percent obtained by dividing GDP of $15,605.6 billion in IIQ2010 by GDP of $15,161.8 billion in IIQ2009 {[($15,605.6/$15,161.8) -1]100 = 2.9%], or accumulating the quarter on quarter growth rates (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/10/us-gdp-growing-at-67-saar-in-iiq2021-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/08/us-gdp-growing-at-66-saar-in-iiq2021-in.html). The expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1986 was at the average annual growth rate of 5.7 percent, 5.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1986, 5.1 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1986, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1988, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1989, 4.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1989, 4.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1989, 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1989, 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1990, 4.4 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1990, 4.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1990, 4.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1990, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1992, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1994, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1994, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1994, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1994 and at 7.9 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/10/us-gdp-growing-at-67-saar-in-iiq2021-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/08/us-gdp-growing-at-66-saar-in-iiq2021-in.html). The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dates a contraction of the US from IQ1990 (Jul) to IQ1991 (Mar) (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html). The expansion lasted until another contraction beginning in IQ2001 (Mar). US GDP contracted 1.4 percent from the pre-recession peak of $9404.5 billion of chained 2012 dollars in IIIQ1990 to the trough of $9275.3 billion in IQ1991 (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IIQ2021 and in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/10/us-gdp-growing-at-67-saar-in-iiq2021-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/08/us-gdp-growing-at-66-saar-in-iiq2021-in.html) would have accumulated to 49.0 percent. GDP in IIQ2021 would be $23,499.3 billion (in constant dollars of 2012) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $4131.0 billion than actual $19,368.3 billion. There are more than four trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 25.1 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 14.5 percent of the effective labor force with the largest part originating in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/10/increase-in-sep-2021-of-nonfarm-payroll.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/09/increase-in-aug-2021-of-nonfarm-payroll.html). Unemployment is decreasing while employment is increasing in initial adjustment of the lockdown of economic activity in the global recession resulting from the COVID-19 event (https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-september-2021.htm). US GDP in IIQ2021 is 17.6 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $15,767.1 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $19,368.3 billion in IIQ2021 or 22.8 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.5 percent. Professor John H. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. Cochrane (2016May02) measures GDP growth in the US at average 3.5 percent per year from 1950 to 2000 and only at 1.76 percent per year from 2000 to 2015 with only at 2.0 percent annual equivalent in the current expansion. Cochrane (2016May02) proposes drastic changes in regulation and legal obstacles to private economic activity. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 2.9 percent per year from Aug 1919 to Aug 2021. Growth at 2.9 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 106.8161 in Dec 2007 to 157.8752 in Aug 2021. The actual index NSA in Aug 2021 is 101.3190 which is 35.8 percent below trend. The underperformance of manufacturing in Mar-Aug 2020 originates partly in the earlier global recession augmented by the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021). Manufacturing grew at the average annual rate of 3.3 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2006. Growth at 3.3 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 106.8161 in Dec 2007 to 166.4722 in Aug 2021. The actual index NSA in Aug 2021 is 101.3190, which is 39.1 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 1.8 percent between Dec 1986 and Aug 2021. Using trend growth of 1.8 percent per year, the index would increase to 136.3086 in Aug 2021. The output of manufacturing at 101.3190 in Aug 2021 is 25.7 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Using the NAICS (North American Industry Classification System), manufacturing output fell from the high of 108.5167 in Jul 2007 to the low of 84.7321 in May 2009 or 21.9 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased from 84.7321 in Apr 2009 to 101.8867 in Aug 2021 or 20.2 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased at the annual equivalent rate of 3.5 percent from Dec 1986 to Dec 2006. Growth at 3.5 percent would increase the NAICS manufacturing output index from 104.6868 in Dec 2007 to 167.5241 in Aug 2021. The NAICS index at 101.8867 in Aug 2021 is 39.2 below trend. The NAICS manufacturing output index grew at 1.7 percent annual equivalent from Dec 1999 to Dec 2006. Growth at 1.7 percent would raise the NAICS manufacturing output index from 104.6868 in Dec 2007 to 131.8090 in Aug 2021. The NAICS index at 101.8867 in Aug 2021 is 22.7 percent below trend under this alternative calculation.
Table V-3A, Cycle 2007-2021, Percentage Contraction, Average Growth Rate in Expansion, Average Growth Rate in Whole Cycle and GDP Percent Below Trend
| Contraction ∆% | Expansion Average ∆% | Whole Cycle Average ∆% | Below Trend Percent | |
| USA | 3.8 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 17.6 |
| Japan | 8.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | NA |
| Euro Area 19 | 5.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 19.3 |
| France | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 15.2 |
| Germany | 7.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | NA |
| UK | 5.9 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 18.4 |
Note: AV: Average. Expansion and Whole Cycle AV ∆% calculated with quarterly growth, seasonally adjusted and quarterly adjusted when applicable, rates and converted into annual equivalent except for average quarterly rate for the UK. Combines the Global Recession after 2007 and the COVID-19 Global Recession after IQ2020.
Data reported periodically in this blog.
Source: Country Statistical Agencies https://www.bls.gov/bls/other.htm https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/related-sites.html
Manufacturing is underperforming in the lost cycle of the global recession. Manufacturing (NAICS) in Aug 2021 is lower by 6.1 percent relative to the peak in Jun 2007, as shown in Chart V-3A. Manufacturing (SIC) in Aug 2021 at 101.319 is lower by 8.6 percent relative to the peak at 110.8954 in Jun 2007. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 2.9 percent per year from Aug 1919 to Aug 2021. Growth at 2.9 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 106.8161 in Dec 2007 to 157.8752 in Aug 2021. The actual index NSA in Aug 2021 is 101.3190 which is 35.8 percent below trend. The underperformance of manufacturing in Mar-Aug 2020 originates partly in the earlier global recession augmented by the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021). Manufacturing grew at the average annual rate of 3.3 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2006. Growth at 3.3 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 106.8161 in Dec 2007 to 166.4722 in Aug 2021. The actual index NSA in Aug 2021 is 101.3190, which is 39.1 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 1.8 percent between Dec 1986 and Aug 2021. Using trend growth of 1.8 percent per year, the index would increase to 136.3086 in Aug 2021. The output of manufacturing at 101.3190 in Aug 2021 is 25.7 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Using the NAICS (North American Industry Classification System), manufacturing output fell from the high of 108.5167 in Jul 2007 to the low of 84.7321 in May 2009 or 21.9 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased from 84.7321 in Apr 2009 to 101.8867 in Aug 2021 or 20.2 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased at the annual equivalent rate of 3.5 percent from Dec 1986 to Dec 2006. Growth at 3.5 percent would increase the NAICS manufacturing output index from 104.6868 in Dec 2007 to 167.5241 in Aug 2021. The NAICS index at 101.8867 in Aug 2021 is 39.2 below trend. The NAICS manufacturing output index grew at 1.7 percent annual equivalent from Dec 1999 to Dec 2006. Growth at 1.7 percent would raise the NAICS manufacturing output index from 104.6868 in Dec 2007 to 131.8090 in Aug 2021. The NAICS index at 101.8867 in Aug 2021 is 22.7 percent below trend under this alternative calculation.
Chart V-3A, United States Manufacturing (NAICS) NSA, Dec 2007 to Aug 2021
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm
Chart V-3A, United States Manufacturing (NAICS) NSA, Jun 2007 to Aug 2021
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm
Chart V-3B provides the civilian noninstitutional population of the United States, or those available for work. The civilian noninstitutional population increased from 231.713 million in Jun 2007 to 261.611 million in Aug 2021 or 29.898 million.
Chart V-3B, United States, Civilian Noninstitutional Population, Million, NSA, Jan 2007 to Aug 2021
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Chart V-3C provides nonfarm payroll manufacturing jobs in the United States from Jan 2007 to Aug 2021. Nonfarm payroll manufacturing jobs fell from 13.987 million in Jun 2007 to 12.492 million in Aug 2021, or 1.495 million.
Chart V-3C, United States, Payroll Manufacturing Jobs, NSA, Jan 2007 to Aug 2021, Thousands
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Chart V-3D provides the index of US manufacturing (NAICS) from Jan 1972 to Aug 2021. The index continued increasing during the decline of manufacturing jobs after the early 1980s. There are likely effects of changes in the composition of manufacturing with also changes in productivity and trade. There is sharp decline in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021).
Chart V-3D, United States Manufacturing (NAICS) NSA, Jan 1972 to Jul 2021
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm
Chart V-3E provides the US noninstitutional civilian population, or those in condition of working, from Jan 1948, when first available, to Aug 2021. The noninstitutional civilian population increased from 170.042 million in Jun 1981 to 261.611 million in Aug 2021 or 91.569 million.
Chart V-3E, United States, Civilian Noninstitutional Population, Million, NSA, Jan 1948 to Aug 2021
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Chart V-3F provides manufacturing jobs in the United States from Jan 1939 to Aug 2021. Nonfarm payroll manufacturing jobs decreased from a peak of 18.890 million in Jun 1981 to 12.492 million in Aug 2021.
Chart V-3F, United States, Payroll Manufacturing Jobs, NSA, Jan 1939 to Aug 2021, Thousands
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
There is global stress in manufacturing. Table V-3B provides month and 12-month percentage changes of new orders in manufacturing and output of manufacturing in Germany.
Table V-3B, Germany, Manufacturing Orders and Manufacturing Output, ∆% Month and 12 Months
| MFG New Orders Month ∆% | MFG New Orders 12 Months ∆% | MFG Output Month ∆% | MFG Output 12 Month ∆% | |
| Aug 2021 | -7.7 | 14.8 | -4.6 | 5.8 |
| Jul | 4.9 | 22.6 | 1.4 | 2.7 |
| Jun | 4.6 | 30.2 | -0.7 | 10.9 |
| May | -3.4 | 55.1 | -0.7 | 20.3 |
| Apr | 1.4 | 80.2 | -0.3 | 35.2 |
| Mar | 3.2 | 33.0 | 0.8 | 9.7 |
| Feb | 1.7 | 7.2 | -2.1 | -5.1 |
| Jan | 0.6 | -4.3 | -0.2 | -9.6 |
| Dec 2020 | -1.7 | 10.7 | 1.5 | 3.1 |
| Nov | 2.6 | 9.5 | 1.2 | -1.1 |
| Oct | 3.6 | 3.9 | 3.5 | -3.6 |
| Sep | 1.7 | 2.4 | 2.5 | -5.3 |
| Aug | 4.7 | -3.8 | -0.3 | -14.0 |
| Jul | 4.8 | -6.4 | 1.9 | -11.2 |
| Jun | 28.6 | -6.3 | 11.5 | -6.9 |
| May | 12.2 | -33.5 | 11.7 | -28.3 |
| Apr | -27.3 | -38.4 | -22.1 | -30.4 |
| Mar | -15.3 | -12.1 | -10.9 | -8.5 |
| Feb | -2.8 | 0.3 | 1.5 | -3.2 |
| Jan | 6.0 | -1.0 | 2.4 | -4.1 |
| Dec 2019 | -1.2 | -7.1 | -1.6 | -4.5 |
| Nov | -1.2 | -8.5 | 0.5 | -6.9 |
| Oct | -0.5 | -5.4 | -1.2 | -5.6 |
| Sep | 1.0 | -1.8 | -1.1 | -1.1 |
| Aug | -0.4 | -9.0 | 0.3 | -7.4 |
| Jul | -0.4 | -1.8 | -0.5 | -0.6 |
| Jun | 1.5 | -11.0 | -1.0 | -14.4 |
| May | -1.9 | -3.6 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Apr | -0.3 | -5.2 | -2.7 | -3.9 |
| Mar | 1.7 | -6.2 | 0.7 | -3.4 |
| Feb | -4.0 | -7.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Jan | -3.2 | -3.6 | -1.1 | -3.1 |
| Dec 2018 | 1.8 | -8.2 | 1.2 | -6.7 |
| Dec 2017 | 2.7 | 3.9 | -0.4 | 3.7 |
| Dec 2016 | 4.5 | 11.2 | -1.8 | 2.0 |
| Dec 2015 | -1.4 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
Source: Federal Statistical Agency of Germany, https://www.destatis.de/EN/Home/_node.html
Table V-3 provides the latest available estimates of GDP for the regions and countries followed in this blog from IQ2012 to IQ2021 available now for all countries. Growth is weak throughout most of the world.
- Japan. The GDP of Japan increased 1.4 percent in IQ2012, 5.7 percent at SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) and increased 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier but part of the jump could be the low level a year earlier because of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan is experiencing difficulties with the overvalued yen because of worldwide capital flight originating in zero interest rates with risk aversion in an environment of softer growth of world trade. Japan’s GDP fell 0.9 percent in IIQ2012 at the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of minus 3.6 percent, which is much lower than 5.7 percent in IQ2012. Growth of 2.8 percent in IIQ2012 in Japan relative to IIQ2011 has effects of the low level of output because of Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IIIQ2012 at the SAAR of minus 1.5 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 at the SAAR of minus 0.3 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan grew 1.4 percent in IQ2013 at the SAAR of 5.7 percent and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.9 percent in IIQ2013 at the SAAR of 3.6 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP grew 1.0 percent in IIIQ2013 at the SAAR of 3.9 percent and increased 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Japan’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent at the SAAR of minus 0.5 percent, increasing 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IQ2014 at the SAAR of 3.4 percent and increased 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Japan’s GDP fell 1.8 percent at the SAAR of minus 7.2 percent and fell 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 at the SAAR of 0.4 percent and fell 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, Japan’s GDP grew 0.5 percent, at the SAAR of 2.0 percent, decreasing 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 1.5 percent in IQ2015 at the SAAR of 6.3 percent and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2015 at the SAAR of 0.4 percent and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2015 at the SAAR of 0.4 percent and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.1 percent in IVQ2015 at the SAAR of minus 0.4 percent and grew 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, the GDP of Japan increased 0.7 percent at the SAAR of 2.9 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IIQ2016 at the SAAR of minus 0.9 percent and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of Japan increased 0.2 percent at the SAAR of 0.8 percent and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2016 at the SAAR of 1.2 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, the GDP of Japan increased 0.7 percent at the SAAR of 3.0 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2017 at the SAAR of 1.0 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, the GDP of Japan increased 0.8 percent at the SAAR of 3.2 percent and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2017, at the SAAR of 1.7 percent, and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, the GDP of Japan changed 0.0 percent, at the SAAR of minus 0.1 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2018, at the SAAR of 0.2 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, the GDP of Japan contracted 0.7 percent at the SAAR of minus 2.7 percent and decreased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2018, at the SAAR of 1.8 percent and decreased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, the GDP of Japan increased 0.3 percent at the SAAR of 1.2 percent and grew 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2019, at the SAAR of 0.8 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, the GDP of Japan increased 0.1 percent at the SAAR of 0.5 percent and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP decreased 1.9 percent in IVQ2019, at the SAAR of minus 7.5 percent and decreased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2020, the GDP of Japan contracted 0.6 percent at the SAAR of minus 2.3 percent and decreased 2.1 percent relative to a year. The GDP of Japan contracted 7.9 percent in IIQ2020 at the SAAR of minus 28.1 percent and decreased 10.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2020, the GDP of Japan increased 5.4 percent at the SAAR of 23.2 percent and decreased 5.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 2.8 percent in IVQ2020 at the SAAR of 11.9 percent and decreased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2021, the GDP of Japan contracted 1.1 percent at the SAAR of minus 4.2 percent and decreased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2021 at the SAAR of 1.9 percent and increased 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier.
- China. China’s GDP grew 1.9 percent in IQ2012, annualizing to 7.8 percent, and 8.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 2.1 percent in IIQ2012, which annualizes to 8.7 percent, and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 1.8 percent in IIIQ2012, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and 7.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, China grew at 2.0 percent, which annualizes at 8.2 percent, and 8.1 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, China grew at 1.9 percent, which annualizes at 7.8 percent, and 7.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, China grew at 1.8 percent, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 2.1 percent in IIIQ2013, which annualizes at 8.7 percent, and increased 7.9 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 1.6 percent in IVQ2013, which annualized to 6.6 percent, and 7.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 7.5 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent in IQ2014 that is equivalent to 7.4 percent per year. GDP grew 7.6 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is annual equivalent 7.4 percent. In IIIQ2014, GDP grew 7.2 percent relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is 7.4 percent in annual equivalent. GDP grew 1.7 percent in IVQ2014, which is 7.0 percent in annual equivalent and 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2015, GDP grew 1.9 percent, which is equivalent to 7.8 in a year and 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 1.8 percent in IIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.4 percent in a year, and grew 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.7 percent in IIIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent in a year, and grew 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.6 percent in IVQ2015, which is equivalent to 6.6 percent in a year and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, GDP grew at 1.5 percent, which is equivalent to 6.1 percent in a year, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.8 percent in IIQ2016, which is annual equivalent to 7.4 percent, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, GDP grew at 1.7 percent, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent in a year and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, GDP grew at 1.6 percent, equivalent to 6.6 percent in a year, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 7.0 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased at 1.8 percent, which is 7.4 percent in annual equivalent. In IIQ2017, GDP grew at 1.8 percent, which is annual equivalent at 7.4 percent, and increased 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.6 percent in IIIQ2017, which is annual equivalent at 6.6 percent, and increased at 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, GDP grew 1.6 percent, which is annual equivalent to 6.6 percent, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.8 percent in IQ2018, which is annual equivalent at 7.4 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2018, GDP grew at 1.7 percent, which is annual equivalent to 7.0 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.3 percent in IIIQ2018, which is annual equivalent at 5.3 percent, and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2018, GDP grew at 1.5 percent, which is annual equivalent to 6.1 percent, and increased 6.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.6 percent in IQ2019, which is annual equivalent to 6.6 percent, and increased 6.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2019, GDP grew at 1.4 percent, which is annual equivalent to 5.7 percent and increased 6.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.2 percent in IIIQ2019, which is annual equivalent to 4.9 percent, and increased 5.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2019, GDP grew at 1.5 percent, which is annual equivalent to 6.1 percent, and increased 5.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP contracted minus 8.7 percent in IQ2020, which is annual equivalent to minus 30.5 percent, and contracted minus 6.8 percent in IQ2020 relative to a year earlier, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021). GDP grew at 10.0 percent in IIQ2020, which is equivalent to 46.4 percent in a year and grew 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2020, GDP grew 2.8 percent, which is annual equivalent at 11.7 percent, and grew 4.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 3.0 percent in IVQ2020, which is equivalent to 12.6 percent in a year, and grew 6.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2021, GDP grew 0.4 percent, which is annual equivalent at 1.6 percent, and grew 18.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 1.3 percent in IIQ2021, which is annual equivalent at 5.3 percent, and increased 7.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Growth rates of GDP of China in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier have been declining from 2011 to 2021.
- Euro Area. GDP fell 0.3 percent in the euro area in IQ2012 and decreased 0.5 in IQ2012 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP contracted 0.3 percent IIQ2012 and fell 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.1 percent and declined 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.4 percent relative to the prior quarter and fell 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, the GDP of the euro area fell 0.4 percent and decreased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2013, euro area GDP increased 0.3 percent and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2013 and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The euro area’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The euro area’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2016 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, euro area GDP increased 0.7 percent and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2017 and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.7 percent and grew 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area grew 0.9 percent in IVQ2017 and increased 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.1 percent and grew 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area grew 0.5 percent in IIQ2018 and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2018 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.7 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2019 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2019 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2020, the GDP of the euro area decreased 3.5 percent and decreased 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area contracted 11.7 percent in IIQ2020 and contracted 14.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2020, the GDP of the euro area increased 12.6 percent and contracted 4.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area contracted 0.4 percent in IVQ2020 and contracted 4.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2021, the GDP of the euro area contracted 0.3 percent and contracted 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 2.2 percent in IIQ2021 and grew 14.3 percent relative to a year earlier.
- Germany. The GDP of Germany increased 0.2 percent in IQ2012 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier but 1.0 percent when adjusted for calendar effects (CA). In IIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier but 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier when adjusted for calendar effects (CA). In IIIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IVQ2012 and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, Germany’s GDP decreased 0.5 percent and fell 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 1.1 percent and grew 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2013 and grew 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.9 percent in IQ2014 and grew 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Germany’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany decreased 0.5 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2015 and grew 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2015 and grew 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2015 and grew 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, the GDP of Germany increased 0.8 percent and grew 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 3.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of Germany increased 0.3 percent and grew 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2016 and grew 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, the GDP of Germany increased 1.2 percent and grew 3.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2017 and grew 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier and 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier adjusting for calendar effects (CA). In IIIQ2017, the GDP of Germany increased 0.9 percent and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier and 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2017, 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier and 3.7 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany decreased 0.4 percent in IQ2018 and grew 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier and 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2018, 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier and 1.8 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany decreased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2018, increasing 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier and 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2018, increasing 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier and 0.1 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany increased 1.1 percent in IQ2019, increasing 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier and increasing 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP contracted 0.5 percent in IIQ2019, increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier and increased 0.5 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2019, increasing 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier and increasing 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2019, increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP decreased 1.8 percent in IQ2020, decreased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier and decreased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany decreased 10.0 percent in IIQ2020, decreased 11.3 percent relative to a year earlier and decreased 11.3 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 9.0 percent in IIIQ2020, decreased 3.6 percent relative to a year earlier and decreased 3.7 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2020, decreased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier and decreased 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP decreased 2.0 percent in IQ2021, decreased 3.3 percent relative to a year earlier and decreased 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany increased 1.6 percent in IIQ2021, increased 9.8 percent relative to a year earlier and increased 9.4 percent relative to a year earlier (CA).
- United States. Growth of US GDP in IQ2012 was 0.8 percent, at SAAR of 3.3 percent and higher by 2.6 percent relative to IQ2011. US GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2012, 1.8 percent at SAAR and 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, US GDP grew 0.2 percent, 0.7 percent at SAAR and 2.6 percent relative to IIIQ2011. In IVQ2012, US GDP grew 0.1 percent, 0.4 percent at SAAR and 1.6 percent relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, US GDP grew at 3.5 percent SAAR, 0.9 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.6 percent relative to the same quarter in 2012. In IIQ2013, US GDP grew at 0.6 percent in SAAR, 0.1 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.3 percent relative to IIQ2012. US GDP grew at 3.2 percent in SAAR in IIIQ2013, 0.8 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.9 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/10/us-gdp-growing-at-67-saar-in-iiq2021-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/08/us-gdp-growing-at-66-saar-in-iiq2021-in.html) In IVQ2013, US GDP grew 0.7 percent at 2.9 percent SAAR and 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, US GDP decreased 0.4 percent, increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier and fell 1.4 percent at SAAR. In IIQ2014, US GDP increased 1.3 percent at 5.2 percent SAAR and increased 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP increased 1.2 percent in IIIQ2014 at 4.7 percent SAAR and increased 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, US GDP increased 0.4 percent at SAAR of 1.8 percent and increased 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IQ2015 at SAAR of 3.3 percent and grew 3.8 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.3 percent in IIQ2015, increasing 0.6 percent in the quarter and 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2015 at SAAR of 1.3 percent and grew 2.2 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 0.6 percent in IVQ2015, increasing 0.1 percent in the quarter and 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, US GDP grew 0.6 percent at SAAR of 2.4 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 1.2 percent in IIQ2016, increasing 0.3 percent in the quarter and 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, US GDP grew 0.6 percent at SAAR of 2.4 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.0 percent in IVQ2016, increasing 0.5 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, US GDP grew 0.5 percent at SAAR of 1.9 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.3 percent in IIQ2017, increasing 0.6 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, US GDP grew 0.7 percent at SAAR of 2.9 percent and increased 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 3.8 percent in IVQ2017, increasing 0.9 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, US GDP grew at SAAR of 3.1 percent, increasing 0.8 percent in the quarter, and increasing 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 3.4 percent in IIQ2018, increasing 0.8 percent in the quarter, and increasing 3.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, US GDP grew at SAAR of 1.9 percent, increasing 0.5 percent in the quarter, and increasing 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 0.9 percent in IVQ2018, increasing 0.2 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.4 percent, increasing 0.6 percent in the quarter and increasing 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 3.2 percent in IIQ2019, increasing 0.8 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.8 percent, increasing 0.7 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 1.9 percent in IVQ2019, increasing 0.5 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2020, US GDP contracted at SAAR of minus 5.1 percent, decreasing 1.3 percent in the quarter, and increasing 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2020, US GDP contracted at SAAR of minus 31.2 percent, decreasing 8.9 percent in the quarter and decreasing 9.1 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 33.8 percent in IIIQ2020, increasing 7.5 percent in the quarter, and decreasing 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2020, US GDP grew at SAAR of 4.5 percent, increasing 1.1 percent in the quarter and decreasing 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 6.3 percent in IQ2021, increasing 1.5 percent in the quarter and increasing 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2021, US GDP grew at SAAR of 6.7 percent, increasing 1.6 percent in the quarter and increasing 12.2 percent relative to a year earlier.
- United Kingdom. In IQ2012, UK GDP increased 0.7 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, GDP fell 0.1 percent relative to IQ2012 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, GDP increased 1.2 percent and increased 2.0 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier. In IVQ2012, GDP fell 0.2 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Fiscal consolidation in an environment of weakening economic growth is much more challenging. GDP increased 1.4 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 0.5 percent in IQ2013 relative to IVQ2012. In IIQ2013, GDP increased 0.7 percent and 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIIQ2013 and 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2013 and 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, GDP increased 0.9 percent and 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2014 and 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIIQ2014 and 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, GDP increased 0.6 percent and 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2015 and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2016 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2016 and grew 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2016 and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2017 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2017 and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, GDP increased 0.4 percent and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2017 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2018 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, GDP increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2018 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, GDP increased 0.6 percent and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2019 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, GDP increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2019 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2020, GDP decreased 2.7 percent and decreased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP decreased 19.6 percent in IIQ2020 and decreased 21.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2020, GDP increased 17.4 percent and decreased 8.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.1 percent in IVQ2020 and decreased 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2021, GDP contracted 1.4 percent and contracted 5.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 5.5 percent in IIQ2021 and increased 23.6 percent relative to a year earlier.
- Italy. The GDP of Italy grew 2.7 percent in IIQ2021 and grew 17.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 0.2 percent in IQ2021 and contracted 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP contracted 1.8 percent in IVQ2020 and contracted 6.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 16.0 percent in IIIQ2020 and contracted 5.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy contracted 13.1 percent in IIQ2020 and contracted 18.2 percent relative to a year earlier in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021). Italy’s GDP contracted 5.6 percent in IQ2020 and decreased 5.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy decreased 0.4 percent in IVQ2019 and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.2 percent in IIIQ2019 and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2019, Italy’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IQ2019 and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2018, the GDP of Italy increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.1 percent in IIIQ2018 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2018, the GDP of Italy changed 0.0 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IQ2018 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, the GDP of Italy increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2017 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2017, the GDP of Italy increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, the GDP of Italy increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2016, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2015, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IVQ2014 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.1 percent in IQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IVQ2013 and fell 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2013 and fell 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.9 percent in IQ2013 and declined 2.9 percent relative to IQ2013. GDP had been growing during six consecutive quarters but at very low rates from IQ2010 to IIQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell in seven consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at increasingly higher rates of contraction from 0.5 percent in IIIQ2011 to 0.9 percent in IVQ2011, 1.2 percent in IQ2012, 0.7 percent in IIQ2012 and 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012. The pace of decline accelerated to minus 0.8 percent in IVQ2012 and minus 0.9 percent in IQ2013. GDP contracted cumulatively 5.4 percent in seven consecutive quarterly contractions from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at the annual equivalent rate of minus 3.1 percent. The year-on-year rate has fallen from 2.1 percent in IVQ2010 to minus 3.2 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.9 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.2 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.5 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.9 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.4 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.4 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.3 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IIIQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.3 percent in IVQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.8 percent in IIQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.7 percent in IIIQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.9 percent in IVQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.4 percent in IQ2018 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.0 percent in IIQ2018 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2018 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2018 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2019 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2019 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIIQ2019 relative to a year earlier and decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2019 relative to a year earlier. GDP contracted 5.8 percent in IQ2020 relative to a year earlier and contracted 18.2 percent in IIQ2020 relative to a year earlier in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021). GDP contracted 5.2 percent in IIIQ2020 relative to a year earlier and contracted 6.5 percent in IVQ2020 relative to a year earlier. GDP contracted 0.7 percent in IQ2021 relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 17.3 percent in IIQ2021 relative to a year earlier. Istat updated the national accounts of Italy, using 2015 base, with the release of Mar 3, 2021 (https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/254320). Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/), the GDP of Italy (using the base of 2015) in IIQ2021 of €414,142.6 million (https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/254320) is lower by 8.6 percent relative to €452,898.0 million in IQ2008 (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/). Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/), the GDP of Italy increased from €391,924.2 million in IQ1998 to €452,898.0 million in IQ2008 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.5 percent. The fiscal adjustment of Italy is significantly more difficult with the economy not growing especially on the prospects of increasing government revenue. The strategy is for reforms to improve productivity, facilitating future fiscal consolidation.
- France. France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2012 and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IIQ2012 and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2013 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2013 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2013 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2015, France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2015, the GDP of France increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France decreased 0.2 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, the GDP of France increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2017, the GDP of France increased 0.8 percent and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2017 and increased 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, the GDP of France increased 0.8 percent and increased 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IQ2018 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2018, the GDP of France increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2018 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2018, the GDP of France increased 0.7 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2019 and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2019, the GDP of France increased 0.5 percent and increased 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2019 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2019, the GDP of France decreased 0.4 percent and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 5.7 percent in IQ2020 and decreased 5.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2020, the GDP of France decreased 13.5 percent and decreased 18.6 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 18.6 percent in IIIQ2020 and decreased 3.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2020, the GDP of France contracted 1.1 percent and decreased 4.3 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IQ2021 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2021, the GDP of France increased 1.1 percent and increased 18.7 percent relative to a year earlier.
Table V-3, Percentage Changes of GDP Quarter on Prior Quarter and on Same Quarter Year Earlier, ∆%
| IQ2012/IVQ2011 | IQ2012/IQ2011 | |
| USA | QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.3 | 2.6 |
| Japan | QOQ: 1.4 SAAR: 5.7 | 3.0 |
| China | 1.9 AE 7.8 | 8.1 |
| Euro Area | -0.3 | -0.5 |
| Germany | 0.2 | 1.5 CA 1.0 |
| France | 0.1 | 0.7 |
| Italy | -1.2 | -2.4 |
| United Kingdom | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| IIQ2012/IQ2012 | IIQ2012/IIQ2011 | |
| USA | QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 1.8 | 2.4 |
| Japan | QOQ: -0.9 | 2.8 |
| China | 2.1 AE 8.7 | 7.6 |
| Euro Area | -0.3 | -0.8 |
| Germany | 0.2 | 0.4 CA 0.9 |
| France | -0.2 | 0.5 |
| Italy | -0.7 | -3.2 |
| United Kingdom | -0.1 | 1.1 |
| IIIQ2012/ IIQ2012 | IIIQ2012/ IIIQ2011 | |
| USA | QOQ: 0.2 | 2.6 |
| Japan | QOQ: –0.4 | -0.1 |
| China | 1.8 AE 7.4 | 7.5 |
| Euro Area | -0.1 | -1.0 |
| Germany | 0.3 | -0.1 |
| France | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Italy | -0.5 | -3.3 |
| United Kingdom | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| IVQ2012/IIIQ2012 | IVQ2012/IVQ2011 | |
| United States | QOQ: 0.1 | 1.6 |
| Japan | QOQ: -0.1 SAAR: -0.3 | -0.1 |
| China | 2.0 AE 8.2 | 8.1 |
| Euro Area | -0.4 | -1.0 |
| Germany | -0.4 | -0.1 |
| France | -0.1 | 0.1 |
| Italy | -0.8 | -3.2 |
| United Kingdom | -0.2 | 1.6 |
| IQ2013/IVQ2012 | IQ2013/IQ2012 | |
| United States | QOQ: 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Japan | QOQ: 1.4 SAAR: 5.7 | 0.0 |
| China | 1.9 AE 7.8 | 7.9 |
| Euro Area | -0.4 | -1.2 |
| Germany | -0.5 | -1.5 |
| France | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Italy | -0.9 | -2.9 |
| UK | 0.5 | 1.4 |
| IIQ2013/IQ2013 | IIQ2013/IIQ2012 | |
| USA | QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.6 | 1.3 |
| Japan | QOQ: 0.9 SAAR: 3.6 | 1.8 |
| China | 1.8 AE 7.4 | 7.6 |
| Euro Area | 0.5 | -0.4 |
| Germany | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| France | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Italy | 0.0 | -2.2 |
| UK | 0.7 | 2.1 |
| IIIQ2013/IIQ2013 | III/Q2013/IIIQ2012 | |
| USA | QOQ: 0.8 | 1.9 |
| Japan | QOQ: 1.0 SAAR: 3.9 | 3.0 |
| China | 2.1 AE 8.7 | 7.9 |
| Euro Area | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Germany | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| France | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Italy | 0.2 | -1.5 |
| UK | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| IVQ2013/IIIQ2013 | IVQ2013/IVQ2012 | |
| USA | QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.9 | 2.5 |
| Japan | QOQ: -0.1 SAAR: -0.5 | 3.1 |
| China | 1.6 AE 6.6 | 7.7 |
| Euro Area | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| Germany | 0.3 | 1.2 |
| France | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| Italy | -0.2 | -0.9 |
| UK | 0.5 | 2.4 |
| IQ2014/IVQ2013 | IQ2014/IQ2013 | |
| USA | QOQ -0.4 SAAR -1.4 | 1.3 |
| Japan | QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.4 | 2.9 |
| China | 1.8 AE 7.4 | 7.5 |
| Euro Area | 0.4 | 1.5 |
| Germany | 0.9 | 3.2 |
| France | 0.1 | 1.2 |
| Italy | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| UK | 0.9 | 2.9 |
| IIQ2014/IQ2014 | IIQ2014/IIQ2013 | |
| USA | QOQ 1.3 SAAR 5.2 | 2.5 |
| Japan | QOQ: -1.8 SAAR: -7.2 | -0.1 |
| China | 1.8 AE 7.4 | 7.6 |
| Euro Area | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Germany | 0.0 | 1.4 |
| France | 0.1 | 0.7 |
| Italy | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| UK | 0.8 | 3.1 |
| IIIQ2014/IIQ2014 | IIIQ2014/IIIQ2013 | |
| USA | QOQ: 1.2 SAAR: 4.7 | 2.8 |
| Japan | QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.4 | -1.1 |
| China | 1.8 AE 7.4 | 7.2 |
| Euro Area | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Germany | 0.5 | 1.8 |
| France | 0.5 | 1.2 |
| Italy | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| UK | 0.7 | 3.0 |
| IVQ2014/IIIQ2014 | IVQ2014/IVQ2013 | |
| USA | QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.8 | 2.6 |
| Japan | QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.0 | -0.5 |
| China | 1.7 AE 7.0 | 7.3 |
| Euro Area | 0.4 | 1.5 |
| Germany | 0.8 | 2.4 |
| France | 0.1 | 0.8 |
| Italy | -0.2 | 0.0 |
| UK | 0.6 | 3.0 |
| IQ2015/IVQ2014 | IQ2015/IQ2014 | |
| USA | QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.3 | 3.8 |
| Japan | QOQ: 1.5 SAAR: 6.3 | 0.3 |
| China | 1.9 AE 7.8 | 7.1 |
| Euro Area | 0.6 | 1.8 |
| Germany | -0.5 | 1.0 |
| France | 0.5 | 1.2 |
| Italy | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| UK | 0.6 | 2.7 |
| IIQ2015/IQ2015 | IIQ2015/IIQ2014 | |
| USA | QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.3 | 3.0 |
| Japan | QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.4 | 2.4 |
| China | 1.8 AE 7.4 | 7.1 |
| Euro Area | 0.4 | 2.0 |
| Germany | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| France | 0.0 | 1.1 |
| Italy | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| UK | 0.7 | 2.6 |
| IIIQ2015/IIQ2015 | IIIQ2015/IIIQ2014 | |
| USA | QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.3 | 2.2 |
| Japan | QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.4 | 2.2 |
| China | 1.7 AE 7.0 | 7.0 |
| Euro Area | 0.4 | 2.0 |
| Germany | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| France | 0.4 | 0.9 |
| Italy | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| UK | 0.5 | 2.5 |
| IVQ2015/IIIQ2015 | IVQ2015/IVQ2014 | |
| USA | QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.6 | 1.9 |
| Japan | QOQ: -0.1 SAAR: -0.4 | 1.5 |
| China | 1.6 AE 6.6 | 6.9 |
| Euro Area | 0.5 | 2.0 |
| Germany | 0.4 | 1.9 |
| France | 0.1 | 1.0 |
| Italy | 0.5 | 1.4 |
| UK | 0.7 | 2.6 |
| IQ2016/IVQ2015 | IQ2016/IQ2015 | |
| USA | QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.4 | 1.6 |
| Japan | QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.9 | 1.0 |
| China | 1.5 AE 6.1 | 6.9 |
| Euro Area | 0.5 | 1.9 |
| Germany | 0.8 | 2.2 |
| France | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| Italy | 0.3 | 1.4 |
| UK | 0.4 | 2.4 |
| IIQ2016/IQ2016 | IIQ2016/IIQ2015 | |
| USA | QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Japan | QOQ: -0.2 SAAR: -0.9 | 0.5 |
| China | 1.8 AE 7.4 | 6.8 |
| Euro Area | 0.3 | 1.7 |
| Germany | 0.4 | 3.6 |
| France | -0.2 | 1.0 |
| Italy | 0.2 | 1.3 |
| UK | 0.6 | 2.3 |
| IIIQ2016/IIQ2016 | IIIQ2016/IIIQ2015 | |
| USA | QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.4 | 1.6 |
| Japan | QOQ: 0.2 SAAR: 0.8 | 0.5 |
| China | 1.7 AE 7.0 | 6.8 |
| Euro Area | 0.4 | 1.7 |
| Germany | 0.3 | 1.9 |
| France | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Italy | 0.5 | 1.6 |
| UK | 0.4 | 2.2 |
| IVQ2016/IIIQ2016 | IVQ2016/IVQ2015 | |
| USA | QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Japan | QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.2 | 1.0 |
| China | 1.6 AE 6.6 | 6.9 |
| Euro Area | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| Germany | 0.3 | 1.4 |
| France | 0.5 | 1.2 |
| Italy | 0.3 | 1.3 |
| UK | 0.7 | 2.2 |
| IQ2017/IVQ2016 | IQ2017/IQ2016 | |
| USA | QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Japan | QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 3.0 | 1.0 |
| China | 1.8 AE 7.4 | 7.0 |
| Euro Area | 0.7 | 2.2 |
| Germany | 1.2 | 3.6 |
| France | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Italy | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| UK | 0.6 | 2.4 |
| IIQ2017/IQ2017 | IIQ2017/IIQ2016 | |
| USA | QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.3 | 2.1 |
| Japan | QOQ: 0.2 SAAR: 1.0 | 1.4 |
| China | 1.8 AE 7.4 | 7.0 |
| Euro Area | 0.8 | 2.7 |
| Germany | 0.8 | 1.3 CA 2.7 |
| France | 0.8 | 2.4 |
| Italy | 0.4 | 1.8 |
| UK | 0.3 | 2.2 |
| IIIQ2017/IIQ2017 | IIIQ2017/IIIQ2016 | |
| USA | QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.9 | 2.3 |
| Japan | QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.2 | 2.1 |
| China | 1.6 AE 6.6 | 6.9 |
| Euro Area | 0.7 | 3.0 |
| Germany | 0.9 | 2.7 CA 3.2 |
| France | 0.6 | 2.8 |
| Italy | 0.4 | 1.7 |
| UK | 0.4 | 2.1 |
| IVQ2017/IIIQ2017 | IVQ2017/IVQ2016 | |
| USA | QOQ: 0.9 SAAR: 3.8 | 2.7 |
| Japan | QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.7 | 2.2 |
| China | 1.6 AE 6.6 | 6.8 |
| Euro Area | 0.9 | 3.1 |
| Germany | 0.8 | 3.1 CA 3.7 |
| France | 0.8 | 3.2 |
| Italy | 0.6 | 1.9 |
| UK | 0.4 | 1.8 |
| IQ2018/IVQ2017 | IQ2018/IQ2017 | |
| USA | QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.1 | 3.0 |
| Japan | QOQ: 0.0 SAAR: -0.1 | 1.4 |
| China | 1.8 AE 7.4 | 6.9 |
| Euro Area | 0.1 | 2.5 |
| Germany | -0.4 | 1.4 CA 2.1 |
| France | 0.0 | 2.4 |
| Italy | 0.0 | 1.4 |
| UK | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| IIQ2018/IQ2018 | IIQ2018/IIQ2017 | |
| USA | QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.4 | 3.3 |
| Japan | QOQ: 0.0 SAAR: 0.2 | 1.2 |
| China | 1.7 AE 7.0 | 6.9 |
| Euro Area | 0.5 | 2.2 |
| Germany | 0.6 | 2.2 CA 1.8 |
| France | 0.4 | 1.9 |
| Italy | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| UK | 0.5 | 1.6 |
| IIIQ2018/IIQ2018 | IIIQ2018/IIIQ2017 | |
| USA | QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 1.9 | 3.1 |
| Japan | QOQ -0.7 SAAR: -2.7 | -0.2 |
| China | 1.3 AE 5.3 | 6.7 |
| Euro Area | 0.1 | 1.5 |
| Germany | -0.4 | 0.4 CA 0.5 |
| France | 0.4 | 1.7 |
| Italy | 0.1 | 0.6 |
| UK | 0.6 | 1.8 |
| IVQ2018/IIIQ2018 | IVQ2018/IVQ2017 | |
| USA | QOQ: 0.2 SAAR: 0.9 | 2.3 |
| Japan | QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.8 | -0.2 |
| China | 1.5 AE 6.1 | 6.5 |
| Euro Area | 0.5 | 1.2 |
| Germany | 0.4 | 0.3 CA 0.1 |
| France | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Italy | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| UK | 0.3 | 1.8 |
| IQ2019/IV2018 | IQ2019/IQ2018 | |
| USA | QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.4 | 2.2 |
| Japan | QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.2 | 0.0 |
| China | 1.6 AE 6.6 | 6.3 |
| Euro Area | 0.7 | 1.8 |
| Germany | 1.1 | 1.5 CA 1.6 |
| France | 0.6 | 2.1 |
| Italy | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| UK | 0.6 | 2.2 |
| IIQ2019/IQ2019 | IIQ2019/IIQ2018 | |
| USA | QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.2 | 2.1 |
| Japan | QOQ: 0.2 SAAR: 0.8 | 0.4 |
| China | 1.4 AE 5.7 | 6.0 |
| Euro Area | 0.2 | 1.5 |
| Germany | -0.5 | 0.1 CA 0.5 |
| France | 0.5 | 2.3 |
| Italy | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| UK | 0.1 | 1.8 |
| IIIQ2019/IIQ2019 | IIIQ2019/IIIQ2018 | |
| USA | QOQ: 0.7 SAAR 2.8 | 2.3 |
| Japan | QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.5 | 1.1 |
| China | 1.2 AE 4.9 | 5.9 |
| Euro Area | 0.3 | 1.7 |
| Germany | 0.4 | 1.8 CA 1.3 |
| France | 0.2 | 2.0 |
| Italy | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| UK | 0.5 | 1.6 |
| IVQ2019/IIIQ2019 | IVQ2019/IVQ2018 | |
| USA | QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 1.9 | 2.6 |
| Japan | QOQ: -1.9 SAAR: -7.5 | -1.4 |
| China | 1.5 AE 6.1 | 5.8 |
| Euro Area | 0.0 | 1.1 |
| Germany | -0.1 | 0.7 CA 0.9 |
| France | -0.4 | 0.9 |
| Italy | -0.4 | -0.1 |
| UK | 0.0 | 1.2 |
| IQ2020/IVQ2019 | IQ2020/IQ2019 | |
| USA | QOQ: -1.3 SAAR: -5.1 | 0.6 |
| Japan | QOQ: -0.6 SAAR: -2.3 | -2.1 |
| China | -8.7 (-30.5) | -6.8 |
| Euro Area | -3.5 | -3.0 |
| Germany | -1.8 | -1.5 CA -1.9 |
| France | -5.7 | -5.4 |
| Italy | -5.6 | -5.8 |
| UK | -2.7 | -2.2 |
| IIQ2020/IQ2020 | IIQ2020/IIQ2019 | |
| USA | QOQ: -8.9 SAAR: -31.2 | -9.1 |
| Japan | QOQ: -7.9 SAAR: -28.1 | -10.1 |
| China | 10.0 (46.4) | 3.2 |
| Euro Area | -11.7 | -14.5 |
| Germany | -10.0 | -11.3 CA -11.3 |
| France | -13.5 | -18.6 |
| Italy | -13.1 | -18.2 |
| UK | -19.6 | -21.4 |
| IIIQ2020/IIQ2020 | IIIQ2020/IIIQ2019 | |
| USA | QOQ: 7.5 SAAR: 33.8 | -2.9 |
| Japan | QOQ: 5.4 SAAR: 23.2 | -5.5 |
| China | 2.8 (11.7) | 4.9 |
| Euro Area | 12.6 | -4.0 |
| Germany | 9.0 | -3.6 CA -3.7 |
| France | 18.6 | -3.6 |
| Italy | 16.0 | -5.2 |
| UK | 17.4 | -8.1 |
| IVQ2020/IIIQ2020 | IVQ2020/IVQ2019 | |
| USA | QOQ: 1.1 SAAR: 4.5 | -2.3 |
| Japan | QOQ: 2.8 SAAR: 11.9 | -0.9 |
| China | 3.0 (12.6) | 6.5 |
| Euro Area | -0.4 | -4.4 |
| Germany | 0.7 | -1.9 CA -2.9 |
| France | -1.1 | -4.3 |
| Italy | -1.8 | -6.5 |
| UK | 1.1 | -7.1 |
| IQ2021/IVQ2020 | IQ2021/IQ2020 | |
| USA | QOQ: 1.5 SAAR: 6.3 | 0.5 |
| Japan | QOQ: -1.1 SAAR: -4.2 | -1.3 |
| China | 0.4 (1.6) | 18.3 |
| Euro Area | -0.3 | -1.2 |
| Germany | -2.0 | -3.3 CA -3.1 |
| France | 0.0 | 1.5 |
| Italy | 0.2 | -0.7 |
| UK | -1.4 | -5.8 |
| IIQ2021/IQ2021 | IIQ2021/IIQ2020 | |
| USA | QOQ:1.6 SAAR: 6.7 | 12.2 |
| Japan | QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 1.9 | 7.6 |
| China | 1.3 AE 5.3 | 7.9 |
| Euro Area | 2.2 | 14.3 |
| Germany | 1.6 | 9.8 CA 9.4 |
| France | 1.1 | 18.7 |
| Italy | 2.7 | 17.3 |
| UK | 5.5 | 23.6 |
QOQ: quarter relative to prior quarter; SAAR: seasonally adjusted annual rate
AE: annual equivalent
Source: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.bls.gov/bls/other.htm https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/related-sites.html
Japan’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2020 and grew 7.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The National Bureau of Statistics of China released a preliminary estimate of growth of GDP of 7.9 percent in IIQ2021 relative to IIQ2020, as shown in Table V-3C. GDP grew 1.3 percent in IIQ2021 at the annual equivalent rate of 5.3 percent. The GDP of the euro area increased 2.0 percent in IIQ2021 and grew 13.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 1.5 percent in IIQ2021 and increased 9.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.9 percent in IIQ2021 and increased 18.7 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 2.7 percent in IIQ2021 and grew 17.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the UK increased 4.8 percent in IIQ2021 and grew 22.2 percent relative to a year earlier.
Table V-3C, Flash Estimates of Percentage Changes of GDP Quarter on Prior Quarter and on Same Quarter Year Earlier, ∆%
| IIQ2021/IQ2021 | IIQ2021/IIQ2020 | |
| Brazil | 12.4 | 12.4 |
| Japan | 0.3 | 7.5 |
| China | 1.3 (AE 5.3) | 7.9 |
| Euro Area | 2.0 | 13.6 |
| Germany | 1.5 | 9.2 |
| France | 0.9 | 18.7 |
| Italy | 2.7 | 17.3 |
| UK | 4.8 | 22.2 |
QOQ: Quarter relative to prior quarter; SAAR: seasonally adjusted annual rate; AE: Annual Equivalent
Source: Eurostat: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat Country Statistical Agencies https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/data/sokuhou/files/2021/qe212/gdemenuea.html http://www.bls.gov/bls/other.htm https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/related-sites.html https://www.ibge.gov.br/estatisticas/economicas/contas-nacionais/9300-contas-nacionais-trimestrais.html?=&t=resultados
Table V-4 provides two types of data: growth of exports and imports in the latest available months and in the past 12 months; and contributions of net trade (exports less imports) to growth of real GDP.
- Japan. Japan provides the most worrisome data (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/global-decline-of-values-of-financial.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/07/valuation-of-risk-financial-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/fluctuating-financial-asset-valuations.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/dollar-revaluation-squeezing-corporate.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/patience-on-interest-rate-increases.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/monetary-policy-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/valuation-risks-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/interest-rate-risks-world-inflation.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/global-financial-risk-world-inflation.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations_8763.html http://cmpass ocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/paring-quantitative-easing-policy-and_4699.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/thirty-one-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/12/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_24.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/11/contraction-of-united-states-real_25.html and for GDP http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what_13.html). In Aug 2021, Japan’s exports increased 26.2 percent in 12 months while imports increased 44.7 percent. The second part of Table V-4 shows that net trade added 0.7 percent in IQ2012, deducting 1.9 percent in IIQ2012. Net trade deducted 1.9 percent in IIIQ2012. Net traded deducted 0.3 percent in IVQ2012. Net trade added 1.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2013 but deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIQ2013, deducting 1.3 percentage points in IIIQ2013 and 2.1 percentage points in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 0.9 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2014. Net trade added 4.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2014 and deducted 0.3 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 1.8 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2014. Net trade contributed 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2015 and deducted 0.8-percentage points in IIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.5 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015 and added 1.4 percentage points in IQ2016. Net trade contributed 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade added 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2016 and contributed 1.1 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade contributed 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017 and deducted 0.9 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade contributed 1.9 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017 and deducted 0.0 percentage-point in IVQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018 and contributed 0.0 percentage points in IIQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.9 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018 and deducted 1.6 percentage points in IVQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.9 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2019 with export contraction deducting 1.5 percent and import contraction contributing 2.4 percent. Net trade deducted 1.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2019. Net trade deducted 1.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade contributed 2.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 1.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2020 with export contraction deducting 3.3 percentage points and import contraction adding 2.1 percentage points. Net trade deducted 10.3 percentage points in IIQ2020 with export contraction deducting 10.8 percentage points and imports contributing 0.5 percentage points. Net trade contributed 11.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2020 with export growth contributing 4.7 percentage points and import contraction contribution 6.5 percentage points. Net trade contributed 4.2 percentage points to GDP in IVQ2020 with export growth contributing 7.3 percentage points and imports deducting 3.1 percentage points. Net trade deducted 0.9 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2021 with exports contributing 1.5 percent and imports deducting 2.4 percent. Net trade deducted 1.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2021 with exports contributing 1.9 percentage points and imports deducting 3.2 percentage points. Private consumption assumed the role of driver of Japan’s economic growth but should moderate as in most mature economies.
- China. The exports of China increased 25.6 percent in Aug 2021 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 33.1 percent.
- Germany. Germany’s exports increased 1.2 percent in the month of Aug 2021 and increased 14.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2021. Germany’s imports increased 3.5 percent in the month of Aug 2021 and increased 18.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2021. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to growth of GDP in IQ2012, contributed 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2012, contributed 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2012, deducted 0.5 percentage points in IVQ2012, deducted 0.3 percentage points in IQ2013 and deducted 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded deducted 0.0 percentage points from Germany’s GDP growth in IIIQ2013 and added 0.9 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2014 and added 0.7 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points in IVQ2015 and deducted 0.9 percentage points in IQ2016. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.9 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade added 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017. Net trade deducted 1.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2017. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018 and contributed 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.4 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2019. Net trade deducted 1.6 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2019. Net traded added 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 1.2 percentage points in IQ2020 and deducted 3.3 percentage points in IIQ2020. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points in IIIQ2020. Net trade contributed 1.2 percentage points in IVQ2020. Net trade contributed 0.9 percentage points in IQ2021. Net trade contributed 3.3 percentage points in IIQ2021.
- United Kingdom. Net trade contributed 0.7 percentage points in IIQ2013. In IIIQ2013, net trade deducted 1.7 percentage points from UK growth. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to UK value added in IVQ2013. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to UK value added in IQ2014 and 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2014 and added 0.0 percentage points in IVQ2014. Net traded deducted 0.4 percentage points from growth in IQ2015. Net trade added 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.1-percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 1.8 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade added 1.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2016. Net trade added 0.33 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017 and contributed 0.01 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.11 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.28 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade added 0.42 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.48 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.45 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.29 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2018. Net trade deducted 2.85 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2019. Net trade contributed 2.86 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2019. Net trade contributed 1.37 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade contributed 2.26 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 2.63 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2020. Net trade contributed 3.56 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2020. Net trade deducted 4.48 percentage points from GDP in IIIQ2020. Net trade deducted 2.16 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2020. Net trade contributed 1.21 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2021. Net trade contributed 0.95 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2021.
- France. France’s exports increased 3.7 percent in Aug 2021 while imports increased 2.3 percent. France’s exports increased 19.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2021 and imports increased 15.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Net traded added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IIIQ2012 and 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IQ2013 and added 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2013, deducting 1.7 percentage points in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IVQ2013 and deducted 0.1 percentage points in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IIQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to France’s GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.6 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015 and deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.3 percentage points to GDP in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP in IIIQ2016 and added 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP in IQ2017 and added 0.9 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade added 0.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade added 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to GDP in IVQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP in IQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ219. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points in IQ2020. Net trade deducted 1.8 percentage points in IIQ2020. Net trade contributed 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2020. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points in IVQ2020. Net trade deducted 0.4 percentage points in IQ2021. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIQ2021.
- United States. US exports increased 0.5 percent in Aug 2021 and goods exports increased 24.1 percent in Jan-Aug 2021 relative to a year earlier. Imports increased 1.4 percent in Aug 2021 and goods imports increased 22.8 percent in Jan-Aug 2021 relative to a year earlier. Net traded added 0.37 percentage points to GDP in IQ2012. Net trade added 0.31 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2012 and deducted 0.02 percentage points in IIIQ2012, adding 0.68 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade added 0.30 percentage points to US GDP growth in IQ2013 and deducted 0.49 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded subtracted 0.01 percentage points from US GDP growth in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 1.04 percentage points to US GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 1.36 percentage points from US GDP growth in IQ2014 and deducted 0.29 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade added 0.12 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2014. Net trade deducted 1.24 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 1.34 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.32 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.95 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.20 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.06 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.30 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade added 0.33 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade deducted 1.19 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2016. Net trade added 0.31 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.42 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2017. Net trade added 0.36 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.37 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade subtracted 0.16 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018. Net trade added 0.40 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.66 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018, deducting 0.51 percentage points in IVQ2018. Net trade added 0.39 percentage points in IQ2019, deducting 0.50 percentage points in IIQ2019. Net trade added 0.07 percentage points in IIIQ2019. Net trade added 1.43 percentage points in IVQ2019, deducting 0.05 percentage points in IQ2020. Net trade added 1.53 percentage points in IIQ2020, deducting 3.25 percentage points in IIIQ2020. Net trade deducted 1.65 percentage points in IVQ2020. Net trade deducted 1.56 percentage points in IQ2021. Net trade deducted 0.18 percentage points in IIQ2021.
Industrial production increased 0.4 percent in Aug 2021 and increased 0.8 percent in Jul 2021 after increasing 0.5 percent in Jun 2021, with all data seasonally adjusted, as shown in Table I-1. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System conducted the annual revision of industrial production released on May 28, 2021 (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/revisions/Current/DefaultRev.htm):
“The Federal Reserve has revised its index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization. The most prominent features of the revision are an update of the base year to 2017 for the indexes, a conversion of the industry-group indexes to the 2017 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), the incorporation of comprehensive annual production data for 2017 through 2019, and the incorporation of new survey utilization rate data for 2019 and 2020.[1]
On net, the revisions to total IP for recent years are negative. Notably, the updated rates of change are 1 to 1-1/2 percentage points lower per year from 2017 through 2019.[2] The cumulative effect of these revisions leaves the level of total IP in April 2021 about 3-1/2 percent below its late-2007 peak before the Great Recession; previously, total IP in April 2021 was slightly above its peak before the Great Recession. The incorporation of detailed data for manufacturing from the U.S. Census Bureau's 2017 Economic Census (EC) and the 2018 and 2019 Annual Surveys of Manufactures (ASMs) accounts for the majority of the differences between the current and the previously published estimates. The revisions to the rates of change for 2020 are small, and the magnitude of the sharp drop (17 percent) in total IP at the onset of the pandemic in early 2020 is very similar to the magnitude reported earlier.
Annual capacity growth is revised down about 1 percentage point, on average, from 2017 to 2019 and is little changed in 2020. After these revisions, capacity for total industry is estimated to have grown about 3 percent less between 2016 and the end of 2020 than previously estimated.
In the fourth quarter of 2020, capacity utilization for total industry stood at 73.4 percent, about 1/2 percentage point below its previous estimate and about 6-1/4 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2020) average. The utilization rate for 2019 is also about 1/2 percentage point lower than the previous estimate, but revisions to utilization rates for 2017 and 2018 are very small.”
The report of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System states (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/default.htm):
“Industrial production increased 0.4 percent in August after moving up 0.8 percent in July. Late-month shutdowns related to Hurricane Ida held down the gain in industrial production by an estimated 0.3 percentage point. Although the hurricane forced plant closures for petrochemicals, plastic resins, and petroleum refining, overall manufacturing output rose 0.2 percent. Mining production fell 0.6 percent, reflecting hurricane-induced disruptions to oil and gas extraction in the Gulf of Mexico. The output of utilities increased 3.3 percent, as unseasonably warm temperatures boosted demand for air conditioning.
At 101.6 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in August was 5.9 percent above its year-earlier level and 0.3 percent above its pre-pandemic (February 2020) level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector rose 0.2 percentage point in August to 76.4 percent, a rate that is 3.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2020) average.”
In the six months ending in Aug 2021, United States national industrial production accumulated change of 5.4 percent at the annual equivalent rate of 11.1 percent, which is higher than growth of 5.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2021. Excluding increase of 0.1 percent in Apr 2021, growth in the remaining five months from Mar 2021 to Aug 2021 accumulated to 5.3 percent or 13.2 percent annual equivalent. Industrial production increased 2.9 percent in one of the past six months, 0.8 percent in one month, 0.6 percent in one month, 0.5 percent in one month, 0.4 percent in one month and 0.1 percent in one month. Industrial production increased at annual equivalent 7.0 percent in the most recent quarter from Jun 2021 to Aug 2021 and increased at 15.3 percent annual equivalent in the prior quarter from Mar 2021 to May 2021. Business equipment accumulated change of 6.8 percent in the six months from Mar 2020 to Aug 2021, at the annual equivalent rate of 14.0 percent, which is higher than growth of 8.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2021. The Fed analyzes capacity utilization of total industry in its report (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm): “Capacity utilization for the industrial sector rose 0.2 percentage point in August to 76.4 percent, a rate that is 3.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2020) average.” United States industry apparently decelerated to a lower growth rate followed by possible acceleration, weakening growth in past months and deep contraction in the global recession, with output in the US reaching in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021). Manufacturing decreased 22.4 percent from the peak in Jun 2007 to the trough in Apr 2009 and increased 13.5 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Dec 2019. Manufacturing increased 10.9 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Dec 2020. Manufacturing in Dec 2020 is lower by 13.9 percent relative to the peak in Jun 2007. Manufacturing increased 17.7 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Aug 2021. Manufacturing in Aug 2021 is 8.6 percent below the peak in Jun 2007. US economic growth has been at only 2.1 percent on average in the cyclical expansion in the 48 quarters from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2021 and in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021). Boskin (2010Sep) measures that the US economy grew at 6.2 percent in the first four quarters and 4.5 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the second quarter of 1975; and at 7.7 percent in the first four quarters and 5.8 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the first quarter of 1983 (Professor Michael J. Boskin, Summer of Discontent, Wall Street Journal, Sep 2, 201 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882304575465462926649950.html). There are new calculations using the revision of US GDP and personal income data since 1929 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) and the third estimate of GDP for IIQ2021 (https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2021-09/gdp2q21_3rd.pdf). The average of 7.7 percent in the first four quarters of major cyclical expansions is in contrast with the rate of growth in the first four quarters of the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010 of only 2.9 percent obtained by dividing GDP of $15,605.6 billion in IIQ2010 by GDP of $15,161.8 billion in IIQ2009 {[($15,605.6/$15,161.8) -1]100 = 2.9%], or accumulating the quarter on quarter growth rates (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/10/us-gdp-growing-at-67-saar-in-iiq2021-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/08/us-gdp-growing-at-66-saar-in-iiq2021-in.html). The expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1986 was at the average annual growth rate of 5.7 percent, 5.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1986, 5.1 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1986, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1988, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1989, 4.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1989, 4.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1989, 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1989, 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1990, 4.4 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1990, 4.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1990, 4.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1990, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1992, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1994, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1994, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1994, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1994 and at 7.9 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/10/us-gdp-growing-at-67-saar-in-iiq2021-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/08/us-gdp-growing-at-66-saar-in-iiq2021-in.html). The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dates a contraction of the US from IQ1990 (Jul) to IQ1991 (Mar) (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html). The expansion lasted until another contraction beginning in IQ2001 (Mar). US GDP contracted 1.4 percent from the pre-recession peak of $9404.5 billion of chained 2012 dollars in IIIQ1990 to the trough of $9275.3 billion in IQ1991 (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IIQ2021 and in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/10/us-gdp-growing-at-67-saar-in-iiq2021-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/08/us-gdp-growing-at-66-saar-in-iiq2021-in.html) would have accumulated to 49.0 percent. GDP in IIQ2021 would be $23,499.3 billion (in constant dollars of 2012) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $4131.0 billion than actual $19,368.3 billion. There are more than four trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 25.1 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 14.5 percent of the effective labor force with the largest part originating in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/10/increase-in-sep-2021-of-nonfarm-payroll.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/09/increase-in-aug-2021-of-nonfarm-payroll.html). Unemployment is decreasing while employment is increasing in initial adjustment of the lockdown of economic activity in the global recession resulting from the COVID-19 event (https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-september-2021.htm). US GDP in IIQ2021 is 17.6 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $15,767.1 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $19,368.3 billion in IIQ2021 or 22.8 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.5 percent. Professor John H. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. Cochrane (2016May02) measures GDP growth in the US at average 3.5 percent per year from 1950 to 2000 and only at 1.76 percent per year from 2000 to 2015 with only at 2.0 percent annual equivalent in the current expansion. Cochrane (2016May02) proposes drastic changes in regulation and legal obstacles to private economic activity. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 2.9 percent per year from Aug 1919 to Aug 2021. Growth at 2.9 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 106.8161 in Dec 2007 to 157.8752 in Aug 2021. The actual index NSA in Aug 2021 is 101.3190 which is 35.8 percent below trend. The underperformance of manufacturing in Mar-Aug 2020 originates partly in the earlier global recession augmented by the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021). Manufacturing grew at the average annual rate of 3.3 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2006. Growth at 3.3 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 106.8161 in Dec 2007 to 166.4722 in Aug 2021. The actual index NSA in Aug 2021 is 101.3190, which is 39.1 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 1.8 percent between Dec 1986 and Aug 2021. Using trend growth of 1.8 percent per year, the index would increase to 136.3086 in Aug 2021. The output of manufacturing at 101.3190 in Aug 2021 is 25.7 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Using the NAICS (North American Industry Classification System), manufacturing output fell from the high of 108.5167 in Jul 2007 to the low of 84.7321 in May 2009 or 21.9 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased from 84.7321 in Apr 2009 to 101.8867 in Aug 2021 or 20.2 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased at the annual equivalent rate of 3.5 percent from Dec 1986 to Dec 2006. Growth at 3.5 percent would increase the NAICS manufacturing output index from 104.6868 in Dec 2007 to 167.5241 in Aug 2021. The NAICS index at 101.8867 in Aug 2021 is 39.2 below trend. The NAICS manufacturing output index grew at 1.7 percent annual equivalent from Dec 1999 to Dec 2006. Growth at 1.7 percent would raise the NAICS manufacturing output index from 104.6868 in Dec 2007 to 131.8090 in Aug 2021. The NAICS index at 101.8867 in Aug 2021 is 22.7 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Table I-13 provides national income by industry without capital consumption adjustment (WCCA). “Private industries” or economic activities have share of 87.7 percent in IIQ2021. Most of US national income is in the form of services. In Sep 2021, there were 147.682 million nonfarm jobs NSA in the US, according to estimates of the establishment survey of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm Table B-1). Total private jobs of 125.735 million NSA in Sep 2021 accounted for 85.1 percent of total nonfarm jobs of 147.682 million, of which 12.462 million, or 9.9 percent of total private jobs and 8.4 percent of total nonfarm jobs, were in manufacturing. Private service-providing jobs were 104.996 million NSA in Sep 2021, or 71.1 percent of total nonfarm jobs and 83.5 percent of total private-sector jobs. Manufacturing has share of 9.6 percent in US national income in IIQ2021 and durable goods 5.7 percent, as shown in Table I-13. Most income in the US originates in services. Subsidies and similar measures designed to increase manufacturing jobs will not increase economic growth and employment and may actually reduce growth by diverting resources away from currently employment-creating activities because of the drain of taxation.
Table V-4, Growth of Trade and Contributions of Net Trade to GDP Growth, ∆% and % Points
| Exports | Exports 12 M ∆% | Imports | Imports 12 M ∆% | |
| USA | 0.5 Aug SA | 24.1 Jan-Aug NSA | 1.4 Aug SA | 22.8 Jan-Aug NSA |
| Japan | Aug 2021 26.2 Jul 2021 37.0 Jun 2021 48.6 May 2021 49.6 Apr 2021 38.0 Mar 2021 16.1 Feb 2021 -4.5 Jan 2021 6.4 Dec 2020 2.0 Nov 2020 -4.2 Oct 2020 -0.2 Sep 2020 -4.9 Aug 2020 -14.8 Jul 2020 -19.2 Jun 2020 -26.2 May 2020 -28.3 Apr 2020 -21.9 Mar 2020 -11.7 Feb 2020 -1.0 Jan 2020 -2.6 Dec 2019 -6.3 Nov 2019 -7.9 Oct 2019 -9.2 Sep 2019 -5.2 Aug 2019 -8.2 Jul 2019 -1.6 Jun 2019 -6.7 May 2019 -7.8 Apr 2019 -2.4 Mar 2019 -2.4 Feb 2019 -1.2 Jan 2019 -8.4 Dec 2018 -3.8 Nov 2018 0.1 Oct 2018 8.2 Sep 2018 -1.2 Aug 2018 6.6 Jul 2018 3.9 Jun 2018 6.7 May 2018 8.1 Apr 2018 7.8 Mar 2018 2.1 Feb 2018 1.8 Jan 2018 12.2 Dec 2017 9.3 Nov 2017 16.2 Oct 2017 14.0 Sep 2017 14.1 Aug 2017 18.1 Jul 2017 13.4 Jun 2017 9.7 May 2017 14.9 Apr 2017 7.5 Mar 2017 12.0 Feb 2017 11.3 Jan 2017 1.3 Dec 2016 5.4 Nov 2016 -0.4 Oct 2016 -10.3 Sep 2016 -6.9 Aug 2016 9.6 Jul 2016 -14.0 Jun 2016 -7.8 May 2016 -11.3 Apr 2016 -10.1 Mar 2016 -6.8 Feb 2016 -4.0 Jan 2016 -12.9 Dec 2015 -8.0 Nov 2015 -3.3 Oct 2015 -2.1 Sep 2015 0.6 Aug 3.1 Jul 2015 7.6 Jun 2015 9.5 May 2015 2.4 Apr 8.0 Mar 8.5 Feb 2.4 Jan 17.0 Dec 12.9 Nov 4.9 Oct 9.6 Sep 6.9 Aug -1.3 Jul 3.9 Jun -2.0 May 2014 -2.7 Apr 2014 5.1 Mar 2014 1.8 Feb 2014 9.5 Jan 2014 9.5 Dec 2013 15.3 Nov 2013 18.4 Oct 2013 18.6 Sep 2013 11.5 Aug 2013 14.7 Jul 2013 12.2 Jun 2013 7.4 May 2013 10.1 Apr 2013 3.8 Mar 2013 1.1 Feb 2013 -2.9 Jan 2013 6.4 Dec -5.8 Nov -4.1 Oct -6.5 Sep -10.3 Aug -5.8 Jul -8.1 | Aug 2021 44.7 Jul 2021 28.5 Jun 2021 32.7 May 2021 27.9 Apr 2021 12.8 Mar 2021 5.8 Feb 2021 11.8 Jan 2021 -9.5 Dec 2020 -11.6 Nov 2020 -11.1 Oct 2020 -13.3 Sep 2020 -17.2 Aug 2020 -20.8 Jul 2020 -22.3 Jun 2020 -14.4 May 2020 -26.2 Apr 2020 -7.2 Mar 2020 -5.0 Feb 2020 -14.0 Jan 2020 -3.6 Dec 2019 -4.9 Nov 2019 -15.7 Oct 2019 -14.8 Sep 2019 -1.5 Aug 2019 -12.0 Jul 2019 -1.2 Jun 2019 -5.2 May 2019 -1.5 Apr 2019 6.4 Mar 2019 1.1 Feb 2019 -6.7 Jan 2019 -0.6 Dec 2018 1.9 Nov 2018 12.5 Oct 2018 19.9 Sep 2018 7.0 Aug 2018 15.4 Jul 2018 14.6 Jun 2018 2.5 May 2018 14.0 Apr 2018 5.9 Mar 2018 -0.6 Feb 2018 16.6 Jan 2018 7.9 Dec 2017 14.9 Nov 2017 17.2 Oct 2017 18.9 Sep 2017 12.0 Aug 2017 15.2 Jul 2017 16.3 Jun 2017 15.5 May 2017 17.8 Apr 2017 15.1 Mar 2017 15.8 Feb 2017 1.2 Jan 2017 8.5 Dec 2016 -2.6 Nov 2016 -8.8 Oct 2016 -16.5 Sep 2016 -16.3 Aug 2016 -17.3 Jul 2016 -24.7 Jun 2016 -18.8 May 2016 -13.8 Apr 2016 -23.3 Mar 2016 -14.9 Feb 2016 -14.2 Jan 2016 -18.0 Dec 2015 -18.0 Nov 2015 -10.2 Oct 2015 -13.4 Sep 2015 -11.1 Aug -3.1 Jul 2015 -3.2 Jun 2015 -2.9 May 2015 -8.7 Apr -4.2 Mar -14.5 Feb -3.6 Jan -9.0 Dec 1.9 Nov -1.7 Oct 2.7 Sep 6.2 Aug -1.5 Jul 2.3 Jun 8.4 May 2014 -3.6 Apr 2013 3.4 Mar 2014 18.1 Feb 2014 9.0 Jan 2014 25.0 Dec 2013 24.7 Nov 2013 21.1 Oct 2013 26.1 Sep 2013 16.5 Aug 2013 16.0 Jul 2013 19.6 Jun 2013 11.8 May 2013 10.0 Apr 2013 9.4 Mar 2013 5.5 Feb 2013 7.3 Jan 2013 7.3 Dec 1.9 Nov 0.8 Oct -1.6 Sep 4.1 Aug -5.4 Jul 2.1 | ||
| China | Jan-Dec 3.6 Jan-Dec 0.5 Jan-Dec 9.9 Jan-Dec 2017 7.9 Jan-Dec 2016 -7.7 Jan-Dec 2015 -2.8 | 2021 Aug 25.6 Jul 19.3 Jun 33.2 May 27.9 Apr 32.3 Mar 30.6 Jan-Feb 60.6 2020 Dec 18.1 Nov 21.1 Oct 11.4 Sep 9.9 Aug 9.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 0.5 May -3.3 Apr 8.2 Mar -2.9 Jan-Feb -17.2 2019 Dec 7.6 Nov -1.1 Oct -0.9 Sep -3.2 Aug -1.0 Jul 3.3 Jun -1.3 May 1.1 Apr -2.7 Mar 14.2 Feb -20.7 Jan 9.3 2018 Dec -4.4 Nov 5.4 Oct 15.6 Sep 14.5 Aug 9.8 Jul 12.2 Jun 11.3 May 12.6 Apr 12.9 Mar -2.7 Feb 44.5 Jan 11.1 2017 Dec 10.9 Nov 12.3 Oct 6.9 Sep 8.1 Aug 5.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 11.3 May 8.7 Apr 8.0 Mar 16.4 Feb -1.3 Jan 7.9 2016 Dec 3.1 Nov 0.1 Oct -7.3 Sep -10.0 Aug -2.8 Jul -4.4 Jun -4.8 May -4.1 Apr -1.8 Mar 11.5 Feb -25.4 Jan -11.2 2015 -1.4 Dec -6.8 Nov -6.9 Oct -3.7 Sep -5.5 Aug -8.3 Jul 2.8 Jun -2.5 May -6.4 Apr -15.0 Mar 48.3 Feb -3.3 Jan 2014 9.7 Dec 4.7 Nov 11.6 Oct 15.3 Sep 9.4 Aug 14.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 7.0 May 0.9 Apr -6.6 Mar -18.1 Feb 10.6 Jan 2013 4.3 Dec 12.7 Nov 5.6 Oct -0.3 Sep 7.2 Aug 5.1 Jul -3.1 Jun 1.0 May 14.7 Apr 10.0 Mar 21.8 Feb 25.0 Jan | Jan-Dec -1.1 Jan-Dec -2.8 Jan-Dec 15.8 Jan-Dec 2017 15.9 Jan-Dec 2016 -5.5 Jan-Dec 2015 -14.1 | 2021 Aug 33.1 Jul 28.1 Jun 36.7 May 51.1 Apr 43.1 Mar 38.1 Jan-Feb 22.2 2020 Dec 6.5 Nov 4.5 Oct 4.7 Sep 13.2 Aug -2.1 Jul 1.4 Jun 2.7 May -16.7 Apr -10.2 Mar -1.1 Jan-Feb -4.0 2019 Dec 16.3 Nov 0.3 Oct -6.4 Sep -8.5 Aug -5.6 Jul -5.3 Jun -7.3 May -8.5 Apr 4.0 Mar -7.6 Feb -5.2 Jan -1.5 2018 Dec -7.6 Nov 3.0 Oct 21.4 Sep 14.3 Aug 20.0 Jul 27.3 Jun 14.1 May 26.0 Apr 21.5 Mar 14.4 Feb 6.3 Jan 36.9 2017 Dec 4.5 Nov 17.7 Oct 17.2 Sep 18.7 Aug 13.3 Jul 11.0 Jun 17.2 May 14.8 Apr 11.9 Mar 20.3 Feb 38.1 Jan 16.7 2016 Dec -7.7 Nov 6.7 Oct -1.4 Sep -1.9 Aug 1.5 Jul -12.5 Jun -2.8 May -0.4 Apr -10.6 Mar -7.6 Feb -13.8 Jan -18.8 2015 -7.6 Dec -8.7 Nov -18.8 Oct -20.4 Sep -13.8 Aug -8.1 Jul -6.1 Jun -17.6 May -12.7 Mar -20.5 Feb -19.9 Jan 2014 -2.4 Dec -6.7 Nov 4.6 Oct 7.0 Sep -2.4 Aug -1.6 Jul 5.5 Jun -1.6 May -0.8 Apr -11.3 Mar 10.1 Feb 10.0 Jan 2013 8.3 Dec 5.3 Nov 7.6 Oct 7.4 Sep 7.0 Aug 10.9 Jul -0.7 Jun -0.3 May 16.8 Apr 14.1 Mar -15.2 Feb 28.8 Jan |
| Euro Area | 11.4 12-M Jul 2021 | 14.8 Jan-Jul 2021 | 17.1 12-M Jul 2021 | 15.5 Jan-Jul 2021 |
| Germany | 1.2 Aug CSA | 14.4 Aug | 3.5 Aug CSA | 18.1 Aug |
| France Aug | 3.7 | 19.4 | 2.3 | 15.2 |
| Italy Jul | 2.6 | 22.8 | 1.3 | 24.0 |
| UK Aug | -4.6 | 3.6 | -1.0 | 18.7 |
| Net Trade % Points GDP Growth | Points | |||
| USA | IIQ2021 -0.18 IQ2021 -1.56 IVQ2020 -1.65 IIIQ2020 -3.25 IIQ2020 1.53 IQ2020 -0.05 IVQ2019 1.43 IIIQ2019 0.07 IIQ2019 -0.50 IQ2019 0.39 IVQ 2018 -0.51 IIIQ2018 -1.66 IIQ2018 0.40 IQ2018 -0.16 IVQ2017 -0.37 IIIQ2017 0.36 IIQ2017 -0.42 IQ2017 0.31 IVQ2016 -1.19 IIIQ2016 0.33 IIQ2016 0.30 IQ2016 -0.06 IVQ2015 -0.20 IIIQ2015 -0.95 IIQ2015 -0.32 IQ2015 -1.34 IVQ2014 -1.24 IIIQ2014 0.12 IIQ2014 -0.29 IQ2014 -1.36 IVQ2013 1.04 IIIQ2013 -0.01 IIQ2013 -0.49 IQ2013 0.30 IVQ2012 +0.68 IIIQ2012 -0.02 IIQ2012 0.31 IQ2012 0.37 | |||
| Japan | 0.7 IQ2012 -1.9 IIQ2012 -1.9 IIIQ2012 -0.3 IVQ2012 1.5 IQ2013 -0.2 IIQ2013 -1.3 IIIQ2013 -2.1 IVQ2013 -0.9 IQ2014 4.2 IIQ2014 -0.3 IIIQ2014 1.8 IVQ2014 0.4 IQ2015 -0.8 IIQ2015 -0.5 IIIQ2015 0.0 IVQ2015 1.4 IQ2016 0.3 IIQ2016 1.1 IIIQ2016 1.1 IVQ2016 0.6 IQ2017 -0.9 IIQ2017 1.9 IIIQ2017 0.0 IVQ2017 0.3 IQ2018 0.0 IIQ2018 -0.9 IIIQ2018 -1.6 IVQ2018 0.9 IQ2019 -1.2 IIQ2019 -1.3 IIIQ2019 2.3 IVQ2019 -1.2 IQ2020 -10.3 IIQ2020 11.3 IIIQ2020 4.2 IVQQ2020 -0.9 IQ2021 -1.3 IIQ2021 | |||
| Germany | IQ2012 0.8 IIQ2012 0.3 IIIQ2012 0.4 IVQ2012 -0.5 IQ2013 -0.3 IIQ2013 -0.3 IIIQ2013 0.0 IVQ2013 0.9 IQ2014 -0.1 IIQ2014 -0.3 IIIQ2014 0.7 IVQ2014 0.1 IQ2015 -0.4 IIQ2015 0.6 IIIQ2015 -0.4 IVQ2015 -0.6 IQ2016 -0.9 IIQ2016 0.0 IIIQ2016 -0.6 IVQ2016 -0.9 IQ2017 1.1 IIQ2017 -1.0 IIIQ2017 0.2 IVQ2017 0.6 IQ2018 0.2 IIQ2018 0.6 IIIQ2018 -1.3 IVQ2018 -1.4 IQ2019 -1.1 IIQ2019 -1.6 IIIQ2019 0.3 IVQ2019 -0.3 IQ2020 -1.2 IIQ2020 -3.3 IIIQ2020 -0.1 IVQ2020 1.2 IQ2021 0.9 IIQ2021 3.3 | |||
| France | 0.1 IIIQ2012 0.1 IVQ2012 -0.1 IQ2013 0.3 IIQ2013 -1.7 IIIQ2013 0.1 IVQ2013 -0.1 IQ2014 -0.2 IIQ2014 -0.2 IIIQ2014 0.2 IVQ2014 -0.2 IQ2015 0.4 IIQ2015 -0.6 IIIQ2015 -0.7 IVQ2015 -0.1 IQ2016 0.3 IIQ2016 -0.6 IIIQ2016 0.1 IVQ2016 -0.6 IQ2017 0.9 IIQ2017 -0.3 IIIQ2017 0.6 IVQ2017 0.0 IQ2018 0.0 IIQ2018 0.3 IIIQ2018 0.2 IVQ2018 -0.3 IQ2019 -0.1 IIQ2019 -0.3 IIIQ2019 0.0 IVQ2019 -0.3 IQ2020 -1.8 IIQ2020 0.6 IIIQ2020 0.8 IVQ2020 -0.4 IQ2021 -0.2 IIQ2021 | |||
| UK | 0.7 IIQ2013 -1.7 IIIQ2013 0.1 IVQ2013 0.8 IQ2014 0.3 IIQ2014 -0.7 IIIQ2014 0.0 IVQ2014 -0.4 IQ2015 1.1 IIQ2015 -0.4 IIIQ2015 -0.2 IVQ2015 -0.1 IQ2016 0.1 IIQ2016 -1.8 IIIQ2016 1.7 IVQ2016 0.33 IQ2017 0.01 IIQ2017 | |||
| 0.11 | ||||
| IIIQ2017 -0.28 IVQ2017 0.42 IQ2018 -0.48 IIQ2018 0.45 IIIQ2018 -1.29 IVQ2018 -2.85 IQ2019 2.86 IIQ2019 1.37 IIIQ2019 2.26 IVQ2019 -2.63 IQ2020 3.56 IIQ2020 -4.48 IIIQ2020 -2.16 IVQ2020 1.21 IQ2021 0.95 IIQ2021 |
Sources: Country Statistical Agencies
https://www.bls.gov/bls/other.htm https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/related-sites.html
VC China. China estimates an index of nonmanufacturing purchasing managers based on a sample of 1200 nonmanufacturing enterprises across the country (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Table CIPMNM provides this index and components. The total index increased from 55.7 in Jan 2011 to 58.0 in Mar 2012, decreasing to 53.9 in Aug 2013. The index decreased from 56.0 in Nov 2013 to 54.6 in Dec 2013, easing to 53.4 in Jan 2014. The index moved to 53.2 in Sep 2021. The index of new orders increased from 52.2 in Jan 2012 to 54.3 in Dec 2012 but fell to 50.1 in May 2013, barely above the neutral frontier of 50.0. The index of new orders stabilized at 51.0 in Nov-Dec 2013, easing to 50.9 in Jan 2014. The index of new orders moved to 49.0 in Sep 2021.
Table CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted
| Total Index | New Orders | Interm. | Subs Prices | Exp | |
| Sep 2021 | 53.2 | 49.0 | 53.5 | 50.5 | 59.1 |
| Aug | 47.5 | 42.2 | 51.3 | 49.3 | 57.4 |
| Jul | 53.3 | 49.7 | 53.5 | 51.3 | 60.7 |
| Jun | 53.5 | 49.6 | 53.4 | 51.4 | 60.8 |
| May | 55.2 | 52.2 | 57.7 | 52.8 | 62.9 |
| Apr | 54.9 | 51.5 | 54.9 | 51.2 | 63.0 |
| Mar | 56.3 | 55.9 | 56.2 | 52.2 | 63.7 |
| Feb | 51.4 | 48.9 | 54.7 | 50.1 | 64.0 |
| Jan | 52.4 | 48.7 | 54.5 | 51.4 | 55.1 |
| Dec 2020 | 55.7 | 51.9 | 54.3 | 52.3 | 60.6 |
| Nov | 56.4 | 52.8 | 52.7 | 51.0 | 61.2 |
| Oct | 56.2 | 53.0 | 50.9 | 49.4 | 62.9 |
| Sep | 55.9 | 54.0 | 50.6 | 48.9 | 63.0 |
| Aug | 55.2 | 52.3 | 51.9 | 50.1 | 62.1 |
| Jul | 54.2 | 51.5 | 53.0 | 50.1 | 62.2 |
| Jun | 54.4 | 52.7 | 52.9 | 49.5 | 60.3 |
| May | 53.6 | 52.6 | 52.0 | 48.6 | 63.9 |
| Apr | 53.2 | 52.1 | 49.0 | 45.4 | 60.1 |
| Mar | 52.3 | 49.2 | 49.4 | 46.1 | 57.3 |
| Feb | 29.6 | 26.5 | 49.3 | 43.9 | 40.0 |
| Jan | 54.1 | 50.6 | 53.3 | 50.5 | 59.6 |
| Dec 2019 | 53.5 | 50.4 | 52.4 | 50.3 | 59.1 |
| Nov | 54.4 | 51.3 | 53.2 | 51.3 | 61.0 |
| Oct | 52.8 | 49.4 | 51.3 | 48.9 | 60.7 |
| Sep | 53.7 | 50.5 | 52.8 | 50.0 | 59.7 |
| Aug | 53.8 | 50.1 | 50.8 | 49.1 | 60.4 |
| Jul | 53.7 | 50.4 | 52.9 | 50.6 | 59.8 |
| Jun | 54.2 | 51.5 | 51.5 | 49.7 | 60.6 |
| May | 54.3 | 50.3 | 52.2 | 49.9 | 60.2 |
| Apr | 54.3 | 50.8 | 53.0 | 50.5 | 60.3 |
| Mar | 54.8 | 52.5 | 52.5 | 51.0 | 61.1 |
| Feb | 54.3 | 50.7 | 52.7 | 50.1 | 61.5 |
| Jan | 54.7 | 51.0 | 52.0 | 49.8 | 59.6 |
| Dec 2018 | 53.8 | 50.4 | 50.1 | 47.6 | 60.8 |
| Nov | 53.4 | 50.1 | 50.8 | 49.4 | 60.9 |
| Oct | 53.9 | 50.1 | 54.9 | 51.2 | 60.6 |
| Sep | 54.9 | 51.0 | 55.6 | 51.5 | 60.1 |
| Aug | 54.2 | 50.6 | 54.3 | 50.9 | 61.4 |
| Jul | 54.0 | 51.0 | 53.9 | 52.0 | 60.2 |
| Jun | 55.0 | 50.6 | 53.5 | 51.1 | 60.8 |
| May | 54.9 | 51.0 | 54.2 | 50.6 | 61.0 |
| Apr | 54.8 | 51.1 | 52.7 | 50.6 | 61.5 |
| Mar | 54.6 | 50.1 | 49.9 | 49.3 | 61.1 |
| Feb | 54.4 | 50.5 | 53.2 | 49.9 | 61.2 |
| Jan | 55.3 | 51.9 | 53.9 | 52.6 | 61.7 |
| Dec 2017 | 55.0 | 52.0 | 54.8 | 52.6 | 60.9 |
| Nov | 54.8 | 51.8 | 56.2 | 52.8 | 61.6 |
| Oct | 54.3 | 51.1 | 54.3 | 51.6 | 60.6 |
| Sep | 55.4 | 52.3 | 56.1 | 51.7 | 61.7 |
| Aug | 53.4 | 50.9 | 54.4 | 51.5 | 61.0 |
| Jul | 54.5 | 51.1 | 53.1 | 50.9 | 61.1 |
| Jun | 54.9 | 51.4 | 51.2 | 49.3 | 61.1 |
| May | 54.5 | 50.9 | 51.1 | 48.8 | 60.2 |
| Apr | 54.0 | 50.5 | 51.7 | 50.2 | 59.7 |
| Mar | 55.1 | 51.9 | 52.3 | 49.7 | 61.3 |
| Feb | 54.2 | 51.2 | 53.7 | 51.4 | 62.4 |
| Jan | 54.6 | 51.3 | 55.1 | 51.0 | 58.9 |
| Dec 2016 | 54.5 | 52.1 | 56.2 | 51.9 | 59.5 |
| Nov | 54.7 | 51.8 | 53.5 | 51.4 | 60.7 |
| Oct | 54.0 | 50.9 | 53.7 | 51.5 | 60.6 |
| Sep | 53.7 | 51.4 | 51.7 | 50.1 | 61.1 |
| Aug | 53.5 | 49.8 | 52.6 | 50.4 | 59.4 |
| Jul | 53.9 | 49.9 | 51.4 | 49.5 | 59.5 |
| Jun | 53.7 | 50.8 | 51.6 | 50.6 | 58.6 |
| May | 53.1 | 49.2 | 51.6 | 49.8 | 57.8 |
| Apr | 53.5 | 48.7 | 52.1 | 49.1 | 59.1 |
| Mar | 53.8 | 50.8 | 51.4 | 49.5 | 59.0 |
| Feb | 52.7 | 48.7 | 50.5 | 48.3 | 59.5 |
| Jan | 53.5 | 49.6 | 49.9 | 47.7 | 58.4 |
| Dec2015 | 54.4 | 51.7 | 49.0 | 48.2 | 58.3 |
| Nov | 53.6 | 50.2 | 49.3 | 47.7 | 60.0 |
| Oct | 53.1 | 51.2 | 51.2 | 48.8 | 61.1 |
| Sep | 53.4 | 50.2 | 50.8 | 47.9 | 60.0 |
| Aug | 53.4 | 49.6 | 49.6 | 47.8 | 59.7 |
| Jul | 53.9 | 50.1 | 48.9 | 47.4 | 60.0 |
| Jun | 53.8 | 51.3 | 50.6 | 48.7 | 59.7 |
| May | 53.2 | 49.5 | 52.8 | 50.4 | 60.1 |
| Apr | 53.4 | 49.1 | 50.8 | 48.9 | 60.0 |
| Mar | 53.7 | 50.3 | 50.0 | 48.4 | 58.8 |
| Feb | 53.9 | 51.2 | 52.5 | 51.2 | 58.7 |
| Jan | 53.7 | 50.2 | 47.6 | 46.9 | 59.6 |
| Dec 2014 | 54.1 | 50.5 | 50.1 | 47.3 | 59.5 |
| Nov | 53.9 | 50.1 | 50.6 | 47.7 | 59.7 |
| Oct | 53.8 | 51.0 | 52.0 | 48.8 | 59.9 |
| Sep | 54.0 | 49.5 | 49.8 | 47.3 | 60.9 |
| Aug | 54.4 | 50.0 | 52.2 | 48.3 | 61.2 |
| Jul | 54.2 | 50.7 | 53.4 | 49.5 | 61.5 |
| Jun | 55.0 | 50.7 | 56.0 | 50.8 | 60.4 |
| May | 55.5 | 52.7 | 54.5 | 49.0 | 60.7 |
| Apr | 54.8 | 50.8 | 52.4 | 49.4 | 61.5 |
| Mar | 54.5 | 50.8 | 52.8 | 49.5 | 61.5 |
| Feb | 55.0 | 51.4 | 52.1 | 49.0 | 59.9 |
| Jan | 53.4 | 50.9 | 54.5 | 50.1 | 58.1 |
| Dec 2013 | 54.6 | 51.0 | 56.9 | 52.0 | 58.7 |
| Nov | 56.0 | 51.0 | 54.8 | 49.5 | 61.3 |
| Oct | 56.3 | 51.6 | 56.1 | 51.4 | 60.5 |
| Sep | 55.4 | 53.4 | 56.7 | 50.6 | 60.1 |
| Aug | 53.9 | 50.9 | 57.1 | 51.2 | 62.9 |
| Jul | 54.1 | 50.3 | 58.2 | 52.4 | 63.9 |
| Jun | 53.9 | 50.3 | 55.0 | 50.6 | 61.8 |
| May | 54.3 | 50.1 | 54.4 | 50.7 | 62.9 |
| Apr | 54.5 | 50.9 | 51.1 | 47.6 | 62.5 |
| Mar | 55.6 | 52.0 | 55.3 | 50.0 | 62.4 |
| Feb | 54.5 | 51.8 | 56.2 | 51.1 | 62.7 |
| Jan | 56.2 | 53.7 | 58.2 | 50.9 | 61.4 |
| Dec 2012 | 56.1 | 54.3 | 53.8 | 50.0 | 64.6 |
| Nov | 55.6 | 53.2 | 52.5 | 48.4 | 64.6 |
| Oct | 55.5 | 51.6 | 58.1 | 50.5 | 63.4 |
| Sep | 53.7 | 51.8 | 57.5 | 51.3 | 60.9 |
| Aug | 56.3 | 52.7 | 57.6 | 51.2 | 63.2 |
| Jul | 55.6 | 53.2 | 49.7 | 48.7 | 63.9 |
| Jun | 56.7 | 53.7 | 52.1 | 48.6 | 65.5 |
| May | 55.2 | 52.5 | 53.6 | 48.5 | 65.4 |
| Apr | 56.1 | 52.7 | 57.9 | 50.3 | 66.1 |
| Mar | 58.0 | 53.5 | 60.2 | 52.0 | 66.6 |
| Feb | 57.3 | 52.7 | 59.0 | 51.2 | 63.8 |
| Jan | 55.7 | 52.2 | 58.2 | 51.1 | 65.3 |
Notes: Interm.: Intermediate; Subs: Subscription; Exp: Business Expectations
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Chart CIPMNM provides China’s nonmanufacturing purchasing managers’ index. The index moved from 56.0 in Oct 2013 to 53.2 in Sep 2021.
Chart CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english
Table CIPMMFG provides the index of purchasing managers of manufacturing seasonally adjusted of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The general index (IPM) rose from 50.5 in Jan 2012 to 53.3 in Apr 2012, falling to 49.2 in Aug 2012, rebounding to 50.6 in Dec 2012. The index fell to 50.3 in Jul 2013, barely above the neutral frontier at 50.0, recovering to 51.4 in Nov 2013 but falling to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.5 in Jan 2014, 50.1 in Dec 2014 and 50.4 in Jul 2020. The index moved to 49.6 in Sep 2021. The index of new orders fell from 54.5 in Apr 2012 to 51.2 in Dec 2012. The index of new orders fell from 52.3 in Nov 2013 to 52.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.9 in Jan 2014 and moved to 50.4 in Dec 2014. The index moved to 49.3 in Sep 2021.
Table CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted
| IPM | PI | NOI | INV | EMP | SDEL | |
| 2021 | ||||||
| Sep | 49.6 | 49.5 | 49.3 | 48.2 | 49.0 | 48.1 |
| Aug | 50.1 | 50.9 | 49.6 | 47.7 | 49.6 | 48.0 |
| Jul | 50.4 | 51.0 | 50.9 | 47.7 | 49.6 | 48.9 |
| Jun | 50.9 | 51.9 | 51.5 | 48.0 | 49.2 | 47.9 |
| May | 51.0 | 52.7 | 51.3 | 47.7 | 48.9 | 47.6 |
| Apr | 51.1 | 52.2 | 52.0 | 48.3 | 49.6 | 48.7 |
| Mar | 51.9 | 53.9 | 53.6 | 48.4 | 50.1 | 50.0 |
| Feb | 50.6 | 51.9 | 51.5 | 47.7 | 48.1 | 47.9 |
| Jan | 51.3 | 53.5 | 52.3 | 49.0 | 48.4 | 48.8 |
| 2020 | ||||||
| Dec | 51.9 | 54.2 | 53.6 | 48.6 | 49.6 | 49.9 |
| Nov | 52.1 | 54.7 | 53.9 | 48.6 | 49.5 | 50.1 |
| Oct | 51.4 | 53.9 | 52.8 | 48.0 | 49.3 | 50.6 |
| Sep | 51.5 | 54.0 | 52.8 | 48.5 | 49.6 | 50.7 |
| Aug | 51.0 | 53.5 | 52.0 | 47.3 | 49.4 | 50.4 |
| Jul | 51.1 | 54.0 | 51.7 | 47.9 | 49.3 | 50.4 |
| Jun | 50.9 | 53.9 | 51.4 | 47.6 | 49.1 | 50.5 |
| May | 50.6 | 53.2 | 50.9 | 47.3 | 49.4 | 50.5 |
| Apr | 50.8 | 53.7 | 50.2 | 48.2 | 50.2 | 50.1 |
| Mar | 52.0 | 54.1 | 52.0 | 49.0 | 50.9 | 48.2 |
| Feb | 35.7 | 27.8 | 29.3 | 33.9 | 31.8 | 32.1 |
| Jan | 50.0 | 51.3 | 51.4 | 47.1 | 47.5 | 49.9 |
| 2019 | ||||||
| Dec | 50.2 | 53.2 | 51.2 | 47.2 | 47.3 | 51.1 |
| Nov | 50.2 | 52.6 | 51.3 | 47.8 | 47.3 | 50.5 |
| Oct | 49.3 | 50.8 | 49.6 | 47.4 | 47.3 | 50.1 |
| Sep | 49.8 | 52.3 | 50.5 | 47.6 | 47.0 | 50.5 |
| Aug | 49.5 | 51.9 | 49.7 | 47.5 | 46.9 | 50.3 |
| Jul | 49.7 | 52.1 | 49.8 | 48.0 | 47.1 | 50.1 |
| Jun | 49.4 | 51.3 | 49.6 | 48.2 | 46.9 | 50.2 |
| May | 49.4 | 51.7 | 49.8 | 47.4 | 47.0 | 50.9 |
| Apr | 50.1 | 52.1 | 51.4 | 47.2 | 47.2 | 49.9 |
| Mar | 50.5 | 52.7 | 51.6 | 48.4 | 47.6 | 50.2 |
| Feb | 49.2 | 49.5 | 50.6 | 46.3 | 47.5 | 49.8 |
| Jan | 49.5 | 50.9 | 49.6 | 48.1 | 47.8 | 50.1 |
| 2018 | ||||||
| Dec | 49.4 | 50.8 | 49.7 | 47.1 | 48.0 | 50.4 |
| Nov | 50.0 | 51.9 | 50.4 | 47.4 | 48.3 | 50.3 |
| Oct | 50.2 | 52.0 | 50.8 | 47.2 | 48.1 | 49.5 |
| Sep | 50.8 | 53.0 | 52.0 | 47.8 | 48.3 | 49.7 |
| Aug | 51.3 | 53.3 | 52.2 | 48.7 | 49.4 | 49.6 |
| Jul | 51.2 | 53.0 | 52.3 | 48.9 | 49.2 | 50.0 |
| Jun | 51.5 | 53.6 | 53.2 | 48.8 | 49.0 | 50.2 |
| May | 51.9 | 54.1 | 53.8 | 49.6 | 49.1 | 50.1 |
| Apr | 51.4 | 53.1 | 52.9 | 49.5 | 49.0 | 50.2 |
| Mar | 51.5 | 53.1 | 53.3 | 49.6 | 49.1 | 50.1 |
| Feb | 50.3 | 50.7 | 51.0 | 49.3 | 48.1 | 48.4 |
| Jan | 51.3 | 53.5 | 52.6 | 48.8 | 48.3 | 49.2 |
| 2017 | ||||||
| Dec | 51.6 | 54.0 | 53.4 | 48.0 | 48.5 | 49.3 |
| Nov | 51.8 | 54.3 | 53.6 | 48.4 | 48.8 | 49.5 |
| Oct | 51.6 | 53.4 | 52.9 | 48.6 | 49.0 | 48.7 |
| Sep | 52.4 | 54.7 | 54.8 | 48.9 | 49.0 | 49.3 |
| Aug | 51.7 | 54.1 | 53.1 | 48.3 | 49.1 | 49.3 |
| Jul | 51.4 | 53.5 | 52.8 | 48.5 | 49.2 | 50.1 |
| Jun | 51.7 | 54.4 | 53.1 | 48.6 | 49.0 | 49.9 |
| May | 51.2 | 53.4 | 52.3 | 48.5 | 49.4 | 50.2 |
| Apr | 51.2 | 53.8 | 52.3 | 48.3 | 49.2 | 50.5 |
| Mar | 51.8 | 54.2 | 53.3 | 48.3 | 50.0 | 50.3 |
| Feb | 51.6 | 53.7 | 53.0 | 48.6 | 49.7 | 50.5 |
| Jan | 51.3 | 53.1 | 52.8 | 48.0 | 49.2 | 49.8 |
| 2016 | ||||||
| Dec | 51.4 | 53.3 | 53.2 | 48.0 | 48.9 | 50.0 |
| Nov | 51.7 | 53.9 | 53.2 | 48.4 | 49.2 | 49.7 |
| Oct | 51.2 | 53.3 | 52.8 | 48.1 | 48.8 | 50.2 |
| Sep | 50.4 | 52.8 | 50.9 | 47.4 | 48.6 | 49.9 |
| Aug | 50.4 | 52.6 | 51.3 | 47.6 | 48.4 | 50.6 |
| Jul | 49.9 | 52.1 | 50.4 | 47.3 | 48.2 | 50.5 |
| Jun | 50.0 | 52.5 | 50.5 | 47.0 | 47.9 | 50.7 |
| May | 50.1 | 52.3 | 50.7 | 47.6 | 48.2 | 50.4 |
| Apr | 50.1 | 52.2 | 51.0 | 47.4 | 47.8 | 50.1 |
| Mar | 50.2 | 52.3 | 51.4 | 48.2 | 48.1 | 51.3 |
| Feb | 49.0 | 50.2 | 48.6 | 48.0 | 47.6 | 49.8 |
| Jan | 49.4 | 51.4 | 49.5 | 46.8 | 47.8 | 50.5 |
| 2015 | ||||||
| Dec | 49.7 | 52.2 | 50.2 | 47.6 | 47.4 | 50.7 |
| Nov | 49.6 | 51.9 | 49.8 | 47.1 | 47.6 | 50.6 |
| Oct | 49.8 | 52.2 | 50.3 | 47.2 | 47.8 | 50.6 |
| Sep | 49.8 | 52.3 | 50.2 | 47.5 | 47.9 | 50.8 |
| Aug | 49.7 | 51.7 | 49.7 | 48.3 | 47.9 | 50.6 |
| Jul | 50.0 | 52.4 | 49.9 | 48.4 | 48.0 | 50.4 |
| Jun | 50.2 | 52.9 | 50.1 | 48.7 | 48.1 | 50.3 |
| May | 50.2 | 52.9 | 50.6 | 48.2 | 48.2 | 50.9 |
| Apr | 50.1 | 52.6 | 50.2 | 48.2 | 48.0 | 50.4 |
| Mar | 50.1 | 52.1 | 50.2 | 48.0 | 48.4 | 50.1 |
| Feb | 49.9 | 51.4 | 50.4 | 48.2 | 47.8 | 49.9 |
| Jan | 49.8 | 51.7 | 50.2 | 47.3 | 47.9 | 50.2 |
| 2014 | ||||||
| Dec | 50.1 | 52.2 | 50.4 | 47.5 | 48.1 | 49.9 |
| Nov | 50.3 | 52.5 | 50.9 | 47.7 | 48.2 | 50.3 |
| Oct | 50.8 | 53.1 | 51.6 | 48.4 | 48.4 | 50.1 |
| Sep | 51.1 | 53.6 | 52.2 | 48.8 | 48.2 | 50.1 |
| Aug | 51.1 | 53.2 | 52.5 | 48.6 | 48.2 | 50.0 |
| Jul | 51.7 | 54.2 | 53.6 | 49.0 | 48.3 | 50.2 |
| Jun | 51.0 | 53.0 | 52.8 | 48.0 | 48.6 | 50.5 |
| May | 50.8 | 52.8 | 52.3 | 48.0 | 48.2 | 50.3 |
| Apr | 50.4 | 52.5 | 51.2 | 48.1 | 48.3 | 50.1 |
| Mar | 50.3 | 52.7 | 50.6 | 47.8 | 48.3 | 49.8 |
| Feb | 50.2 | 52.6 | 50.5 | 47.4 | 48.0 | 49.9 |
| Jan | 50.5 | 53.0 | 50.9 | 47.8 | 48.2 | 49.8 |
| Dec 2013 | 51.0 | 53.9 | 52.0 | 47.6 | 48.7 | 50.5 |
| Nov | 51.4 | 54.5 | 52.3 | 47.8 | 49.6 | 50.6 |
| Oct | 51.4 | 54.4 | 52.5 | 48.6 | 49.2 | 50.8 |
| Sep | 51.1 | 52.9 | 52.8 | 48.5 | 49.1 | 50.8 |
| Aug | 51.0 | 52.6 | 52.4 | 48.0 | 49.3 | 50.4 |
| Jul | 50.3 | 52.4 | 50.6 | 47.6 | 49.1 | 50.1 |
| Jun | 50.1 | 52.0 | 50.4 | 47.4 | 48.7 | 50.3 |
| May | 50.8 | 53.3 | 51.8 | 47.6 | 48.8 | 50.8 |
| Apr | 50.6 | 52.6 | 51.7 | 47.5 | 49.0 | 50.8 |
| Mar | 50.9 | 52.7 | 52.3 | 47.5 | 49.8 | 51.1 |
| Feb | 50.1 | 51.2 | 50.1 | 49.5 | 47.6 | 48.3 |
| Jan | 50.4 | 51.3 | 51.6 | 50.1 | 47.8 | 50.0 |
| Dec 2012 | 50.6 | 52.0 | 51.2 | 47.3 | 49.0 | 48.8 |
| Nov | 50.6 | 52.5 | 51.2 | 47.9 | 48.7 | 49.9 |
| Oct | 50.2 | 52.1 | 50.4 | 47.3 | 49.2 | 50.1 |
| Sep | 49.8 | 51.3 | 49.8 | 47.0 | 48.9 | 49.5 |
| Aug | 49.2 | 50.9 | 48.7 | 45.1 | 49.1 | 50.0 |
| Jul | 50.1 | 51.8 | 49.0 | 48.5 | 49.5 | 49.0 |
| Jun | 50.2 | 52.0 | 49.2 | 48.2 | 49.7 | 49.1 |
| May | 50.4 | 52.9 | 49.8 | 45.1 | 50.5 | 49.0 |
| Apr | 53.3 | 57.2 | 54.5 | 48.5 | 51.0 | 49.6 |
| Mar | 53.1 | 55.2 | 55.1 | 49.5 | 51.0 | 48.9 |
| Feb | 51.0 | 53.8 | 51.0 | 48.8 | 49.5 | 50.3 |
| Jan | 50.5 | 53.6 | 50.4 | 49.7 | 47.1 | 49.7 |
IPM: Index of Purchasing Managers; PI: Production Index; NOI: New Orders Index; EMP: Employed Person Index; SDEL: Supplier Delivery Time Index
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
China estimates the manufacturing index of purchasing managers on the basis of a sample of 820 enterprises (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Chart CIPMMFG provides the manufacturing index of purchasing managers. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013. The index decreased from 51.4 in Nov 2013 to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index moved to 49.6 in Sep 2021.
Chart CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english
Chart CIPCOMP provides China’s composite, manufacturing and nonmanufacturing, index. The index remains above the neutral 50.0, moving to 51.7 in Sep 2021.
Chart CIPCOMP, China, Composite Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english
VH United Kingdom. Annual data in Table VH-UK show the strong impact of the global recession in the UK with decline of GDP of 4.2 percent in 2009 after dropping 0.2 percent in 2008. Recovery of 2.1 percent in 2010 is relatively low in comparison with annual growth rates in 2007 and earlier years. Growth was only 1.5 percent in 2011 and 1.5 percent in 2012. Growth increased to 1.9 percent in 2013 and 3.0 percent in 2014. Growth fell to 2.6 percent in 2015, and 2.3 percent in 2016. GDP grew 2.1 percent in 2017. GDP grew 1.7 percent in 2018, growing 1.7 percent in 2019. The bottom part of Table VH-UK provides average growth rates of UK GDP since 1948. GDP contracted 9.7 percent in 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021). The UK economy grew at 2.5 percent per year on average between 1948 and 2019, which is relatively high for an advanced economy. The growth rate is lower at 2.3 percent from 1948 to 2020. The growth rate of GDP between 2000 and 2007 is higher at 2.4 percent. Growth in the cyclical expansion from 2010 to 2019 has been only at 2.0 percent as advanced economies struggle with weak internal demand and world trade. GDP in 2019 is higher by 16.8 percent relative to 2007 while it would have been 32.9 higher at trend of 2.4 percent as from 2000 to 2007. GDP in 2020 is higher by only 5.4 percent relative to 2007.
Table VH-UK, UK, Gross Domestic Product, ∆%
| ∆% on Prior Year | |
| 1998 | 3.2 |
| 1999 | 3.0 |
| 2000 | 3.7 |
| 2001 | 2.1 |
| 2002 | 2.1 |
| 2003 | 3.0 |
| 2004 | 2.4 |
| 2005 | 2.6 |
| 2006 | 2.6 |
| 2007 | 2.3 |
| 2008 | -0.2 |
| 2009 | -4.2 |
| 2010 | 2.1 |
| 2011 | 1.5 |
| 2012 | 1.5 |
| 2013 | 1.9 |
| 2014 | 3.0 |
| 2015 | 2.6 |
| 2016 | 2.3 |
| 2017 | 2.1 |
| 2018 | 1.7 |
| 2019 | 1.7 |
| 2020 | -9.7 |
| Average Growth Rates ∆% per Year | |
| 1948-2019 | 2.5 |
| 1948-2020 | 2.3 |
| 1950-1959 | 3.1 |
| 1960-1969 | 3.1 |
| 1970-1979 | 2.6 |
| 1980-1989 | 3.1 |
| 1990-1999 | 2.3 |
| 2000-2007 | 2.4 |
| 2007-2013* | 2.3 |
| 2007-2014* | 5.4 |
| 2007-2015 | 1.0 |
| 2007-2016 | 1.1 |
| 2007-2017 | 1.2 |
| 2007-2018 | 1.3 |
| 2007-2019 | 1.3 |
| 2007-2020 | 0.4 |
| 2000-2019 | 1.7 |
| 2000-2020 | 1.1 |
*Absolute change from 2007 to 2013 and 2007 to 2014
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
Chart VH-UK1 provides the annual percentage changes UK GDP from 1949 to 2020. The sharpest contraction was 9.8 percent in 2020 in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.
Chart VH-UK1, UK, Annual Percentage Change of GDP, 1949-2020
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
The UK Office for National Statistics provides revision of the national accounts in accordance with the European System of Accounts 2010 (ESA 2010) (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/quarterly-national-accounts/q2-2015/index.html). The UK Office for National Statistics moved the base and reference year of chained volumes from 2015 to 2016 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/januarytomarch2018). There are adjustments of the UK national accounts (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/articles/nationalaccountsarticles/previousReleases https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/januarytomarch2018). The second estimate for IIQ2019 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/apriltojune2019) incorporates changes and notice of future revision: “(This release contains data that are consistent with the UK National Accounts, The Blue Book 2019, which will be released on 31 October 2019. As such, data for all periods within this release are subject to revision in line with the National Accounts Revisions Policy.)” The second estimate for IIQ2020 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/apriltojune2020) incorporates changes and notice of future revision: “This release contains data that are consistent with the UK National Accounts, The Blue Book: 2020, which will be released on 30 October 2020. As such, data for all periods within this release are subject to revision in line with the National Accounts Revisions Policy.” GDP decreased 19.6 percent in IIQ2020 relative to IQ2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021). Growth of 1.2 percent in IIIQ2012 interrupted three consecutive quarters of weakness in GDP growth from IIQ2011 to IVQ2011. Most advanced economies are underperforming relative to the period before the global recession. The UK Office for National Statistics analyzes that the decline in the impulse of growth in the UK originated in weakness in markets in the UK and worldwide. The UK Office for National Statistics data shows that GDP in IIQ2021 is higher by 11.7 percent relative to the peak in IQ2008 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/apriltojune2021). UK GDP in chained value measures is ₤489,449 million in IQ2008 and ₤527,344 million in IVQ2015 or increase of 7.7 percent. Growth at trend of 2.4 percent per year would bring GDP to ₤588,210 million in IVQ2015. UK GDP in IVQ2015 at ₤527,344 million is lower by ₤70,852 million relative to trend at ₤588,210 million or lower by 10.3 percent compared with trend. GDP estimates of the UK Office for National Statistics measure the contraction of 5.9 percent from peak to trough (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/apriltojune2021), which is roughly equal at 6.0 percent to compounding the quarterly rates except for rounding in Table VH-1 from IIQ2008 to IIQ2009. UK GDP is ₤489,449 million in IQ2008 declining 5.9 percent to ₤460,431 million in IIQ2009. GDP increased 14.5 percent from IIQ2009 to ₤527,344 million in IVQ2015 or at the annual equivalent rate of 2.2 percent. GDP increased 7.7 percent from IQ2008 to IVQ2015 or at the annual equivalent rate of 1.0 percent. Using the seasonally adjusted chained-value measures (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/apriltojune2021). GDP increased from ₤489,449 million in IQ2008 to ₤546,556 million in IIQ2021, or 11.7 percent at the quarterly rate of 0.8 percent. UK GDP in IIQ2021 at ₤546,556 million is lower by ₤123,609 million relative to trend at ₤670,165 million or lower by 18.4 percent compared with trend. UK GDP increased 18.7 percent from IIQ2009 to IIQ2021 at the quarterly rate of 1.4 percent.
Table VH-1, UK, Percentage Change of GDP from Prior Quarter, Chained Value Measures ∆%
| IQ | IIQ | IIIQ | IV | |
| 2021 | -1.4 | 5.5 | ||
| 2020 | -2.7 | -19.6 | 17.4 | 1.1 |
| 2019 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 2018 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 2017 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 2016 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| 2015 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| 2014 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 2013 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 2012 | 0.7 | -0.1 | 1.2 | -0.2 |
| 2011 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2010 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2009 | -1.8 | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| 2008 | 0.6 | -0.5 | -1.5 | -2.0 |
| 2007 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 2006 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| 2005 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| 2004 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| 2003 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 2002 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| 2001 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 2000 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 1999 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 1998 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
Chart VH-1 of the UK Office for National Statistics provides the quarterly growth rate of GDP of the United Kingdom and GDP in chained volume measures (CVM) from 2008 to 2021. GDP contracted sharply during the global recession, surpassing the pre-recession peak of IQ2008 and continuing growth in the expansion phase. There is acceleration in growth at 5.5 percent in IIQ2021 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021).
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
There are four periods in Table VH-2 in growth of GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier in the UK in the years from 1998 to the present. (1) Growth rates were quite high from 2000 to 2007. (2) There were six consecutive quarters of contraction of GDP from IIIQ2008 to IVQ2009. Contractions relative to the quarter a year earlier were quite sharp with the highest of 3.3 percent in IVQ2008, 5.6 percent in IQ2009, 5.5 percent in IIQ2009 and 4.0 percent in IIIQ2009. (3) The economy bounced strongly with 2.2 percent in IIQ2010, 2.9 percent in IIIQ2010 and 2.7 percent in IVQ2010. (4) Recovery did not continue at rates comparable to those in 2000 to 2007 and even relative to those in the final three quarters of 2010. Growth relative to the same quarter a year earlier fell from 2.7 percent in IVQ2010 to 1.4 percent in IIQ2011, 1.0 percent in IIIQ2011, 1.0 percent in IVQ2011 but only 1.2 percent in IQ2012, increase of 1.1 percent in IIQ2012 relative to IIQ2011, increase of 2.0 percent in IIIQ2012 and 1.6 percent in IVQ2012. In IQ2012, UK GDP increased 0.7 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, GDP fell 0.1 percent relative to IQ2012 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, GDP increased 1.2 percent and increased 2.0 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier. In IVQ2012, GDP fell 0.2 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Fiscal consolidation in an environment of weakening economic growth is much more challenging. GDP increased 1.4 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 0.5 percent in IQ2013 relative to IVQ2012. In IIQ2013, GDP increased 0.7 percent and 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIIQ2013 and 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2013 and 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, GDP increased 0.9 percent and 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIQ2014 and 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIIQ2014 and 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, GDP increased 0.6 percent and 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2015 and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2016 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIQ2016 and grew 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2016 and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2017 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2017 and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, GDP increased 0.4 percent and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2017 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2018 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, GDP increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2018 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, GDP increased 0.6 percent and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2019 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, GDP increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2019 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2020, GDP decreased 2.7 percent and decreased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP decreased 19.6 percent in IIQ2020 and decreased 21.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2020, GDP increased 17.4 percent and decreased 8.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.1 percent in IVQ2020 and decreased 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2021, GDP contracted 1.4 percent and contracted 5.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 5.5 percent in IIQ2021 and increased 23.6 percent relative to a year earlier.
Table VH-2, UK, Percentage Change of GDP from Same Quarter a Year Earlier, Chained Value Measures ∆%
| IQ | IIQ | IIIQ | IVQ | |
| 2021 | -5.8 | 23.6 | ||
| 2020 | -2.2 | -21.4 | -8.1 | -7.1 |
| 2019 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| 2018 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| 2017 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| 2016 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| 2015 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.6 |
| 2014 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| 2013 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 2.4 |
| 2012 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| 2011 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 2010 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.7 |
| 2009 | -5.6 | -5.5 | -4.0 | -1.7 |
| 2008 | 2.2 | 1.2 | -1.0 | -3.3 |
| 2007 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.3 |
| 2006 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| 2005 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 3.6 |
| 2004 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| 2003 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.1 |
| 2002 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.8 |
| 2001 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| 2000 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 2.3 |
| 1999 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 3.9 |
| 1998 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.7 |
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
Table VH-3 provides annual percentage changes of gross value added and key components. Production fell 5.8 percent in 2009 and its most important component manufacturing fell 7.7 percent. Services fell 3.0 percent in 2009. Services grew in all years from 2010 to 2019 while manufacturing fell 1.4 percent in 2011. Manufacturing resumed growth with 3.6 percent in 2014 followed by increase of 0.5 percent in 2015. Manufacturing increased 0.3 percent in 2016 and increased 1.4 percent in 2017. Manufacturing increased 3.9 percent in 2018. Manufacturing increased 3.1 percent in 2019. In 2020, manufacturing contracted 8.8 percent and services decreased 8.8 percent.
Table VH-3, UK, Gross Value Added by Components, ∆% on Prior Year
| TP | MFG | CONS | SERV | GVA BP | |
| 1919 Weights | 137 | 99 | 64 | 792 | 1000 |
| 2020 | -8.3 | -8.8 | -16.1 | -8.8 | -9.8 |
| 2019 | 3.6 | 3.1 | -0.1 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 2018 | 3.5 | 3.9 | -2 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 2017 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 2.2 |
| 2016 | 0.2 | -0.7 | -1.7 | 3.2 | 2.4 |
| 2015 | 4.5 | 1 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 2.4 |
| 2014 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 3 |
| 2013 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 2012 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| 2011 | -6 | -1.4 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.6 |
| 2010 | -0.8 | 0.7 | 9.4 | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| 2009 | -5.8 | -7.7 | -14.2 | -3 | -4.2 |
| 2008 | -1.6 | -0.3 | -6.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 |
| 2007 | -0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 3.2 | 2.2 |
| 2006 | 3.3 | 6 | 0.2 | 2.9 | 2.7 |
| 2005 | -0.8 | 1.8 | -0.2 | 3.8 | 2.8 |
| 2004 | -1.2 | 1.7 | -1.2 | 3.4 | 2.2 |
| 2003 | 2.8 | 2.7 | -2 | 3.5 | 3 |
| 2002 | 1.7 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| 2001 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 2 |
| 2000 | 2.6 | 4.3 | -0.1 | 4.2 | 3.7 |
| 1999 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 3.2 |
| 1998 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 3.1 |
Note: TP: Total Production; MFG: Manufacturing; CONS: Construction; SERV: Services; GVA BP: Gross Value Added at Basic Prices; GVA EX: Gross Value Added excluding Oil and Gas
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
Table VH-4 shows for IIQ2021 that gross valued at basic prices increased 23.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Total production increased 20.6 percent and manufacturing increased 27.9 percent. Services increased 22.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The UK economy contracted in IVQ2020 and IQ2021 relative to a year earlier in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021).
Table VH-4, UK, Gross Value Added by Components, ∆% on Same Quarter of Prior Year
| TP | MFG | CONS | SERV | GVA BP | |
| 2019 Weights | 137 | 99 | 64 | 792 | 1000 |
| 2021 Q2 | 20.6 | 27.9 | 57.3 | 22.9 | 23.6 |
| 2021 Q1 | -1.4 | -1.5 | -2.4 | -5.7 | -5.9 |
| 2020 Q4 | -3.4 | -2.7 | -6.3 | -6.5 | -7.2 |
| 2020 Q3 | -5.7 | -6.3 | -12.4 | -7.3 | -8.2 |
| 2020 Q2 | -19.6 | -23.1 | -40.2 | -19.9 | -21.6 |
| 2020 Q1 | -4.4 | -3 | -4.7 | -1.5 | -2.2 |
| 2019 Q4 | -0.5 | 2.4 | -2.8 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| 2019 Q3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | -1.3 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| 2019 Q2 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| 2019 Q1 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 |
| 2018 Q4 | 4.8 | 2.7 | -2 | 1.7 | 2 |
| 2018 Q3 | 5 | 4.6 | -1.4 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| 2018 Q2 | 3.4 | 4.7 | -2.1 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| 2018 Q1 | 0.7 | 3.9 | -2.3 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| 2017 Q4 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 2017 Q3 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| 2017 Q2 | -2.3 | -0.5 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 |
| 2017 Q1 | -2.8 | 1.1 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 2.5 |
| 2016 Q4 | -0.4 | 0.1 | -1.1 | 3.1 | 2.4 |
| 2016 Q3 | -1 | -0.9 | -1.7 | 3.4 | 2.3 |
| 2016 Q2 | 1 | -0.2 | -2.6 | 3.2 | 2.3 |
| 2016 Q1 | 1.3 | -1.6 | -1.3 | 3.1 | 2.4 |
| 2015 Q4 | 4.6 | -0.4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.6 |
| 2015 Q3 | 6.1 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| 2015 Q2 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| 2015 Q1 | 2.2 | 2 | 5 | 2.6 | 2.4 |
| 2014 Q4 | -3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.6 |
| 2014 Q3 | -1 | 2.8 | 2 | 3.2 | 2.9 |
| 2014 Q2 | 1.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 3.1 |
| 2014 Q1 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 3.4 |
| 2013 Q4 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 2.6 |
| 2013 Q3 | 2 | 3.9 | 6.9 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| 2013 Q2 | 1.9 | 4 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 2 |
| 2013 Q1 | -1.5 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 2012 Q4 | -0.9 | 3.5 | -0.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| 2012 Q3 | 1.5 | 3.4 | -0.6 | 2.4 | 2.2 |
| 2012 Q2 | 0.7 | 1.1 | -0.3 | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| 2012 Q1 | -0.7 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 3 | 1.7 |
| 2011 Q4 | -5.2 | -1 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 2011 Q3 | -5.4 | -1.6 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 2011 Q2 | -7.1 | -1.8 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| 2011 Q1 | -6 | -1 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 2.4 |
| 2010 Q4 | 0 | -0.7 | 10.4 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| 2010 Q3 | -0.5 | 1.1 | 11.6 | 3.4 | 3.1 |
| 2010 Q2 | -0.5 | 1.2 | 11.2 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| 2010 Q1 | -2.4 | 1.3 | 4.3 | 1 | 0.6 |
| 2009 Q4 | -6.5 | -3.4 | -8.1 | -0.4 | -2 |
| 2009 Q3 | -6.9 | -8.3 | -12.9 | -2.5 | -4 |
| 2009 Q2 | -5.2 | -8.9 | -17.3 | -4.4 | -5.4 |
| 2009 Q1 | -4.8 | -10.1 | -17.9 | -4.4 | -5.2 |
| 2008 Q4 | -0.7 | -4.4 | -11.5 | -3.2 | -3 |
| 2008 Q3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | -5.4 | -0.8 | -0.7 |
| 2008 Q2 | -2.5 | 1.2 | -4.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 2008 Q1 | -3.4 | 1.7 | -3.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 |
| 2007 Q4 | -3.9 | -0.5 | -2.2 | 4.6 | 2.4 |
| 2007 Q3 | -2.8 | -0.8 | -0.9 | 4 | 2.4 |
| 2007 Q2 | 1 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 2.2 |
| 2007 Q1 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2 |
| 2006 Q4 | 3.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 1.7 |
| 2006 Q3 | 3.4 | 6.4 | 0.4 | 2 | 2.4 |
| 2006 Q2 | 2 | 6 | -1 | 3.8 | 3.1 |
| 2006 Q1 | 4.6 | 6.1 | -0.9 | 5.2 | 3.8 |
| 2005 Q4 | -2.5 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 6 | 3.9 |
| 2005 Q3 | -1.4 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 4.1 | 3.1 |
| 2005 Q2 | 0 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 2.8 | 2.4 |
| 2005 Q1 | 0.7 | -0.6 | -2.6 | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| 2004 Q4 | 0.9 | 1 | -3.7 | 2.6 | 1.7 |
| 2004 Q3 | -2.9 | 0.3 | -2.8 | 3.5 | 1.9 |
| 2004 Q2 | -1.8 | 2.5 | -1.2 | 3.9 | 2.5 |
| 2004 Q1 | -1.2 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.8 |
| 2003 Q4 | 8.8 | 2.2 | -2 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| 2003 Q3 | 7 | 1.5 | -2.5 | 3.7 | 3.4 |
| 2003 Q2 | 1.9 | 3.4 | -1.1 | 3.4 | 2.9 |
| 2003 Q1 | -5.8 | 3.7 | -2.7 | 3.7 | 2.4 |
| 2002 Q4 | -5.8 | 5.3 | 0.9 | 2.7 | 2.4 |
| 2002 Q3 | -1.4 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2 |
| 2002 Q2 | 3.5 | 3.7 | -1.2 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| 2002 Q1 | 11 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| 2001 Q4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| 2001 Q3 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| 2001 Q2 | 2 | 2 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 2 |
| 2001 Q1 | 1.5 | 3.5 | -3.3 | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| 2000 Q4 | 4.6 | 3.4 | -2 | 2.3 | 2.7 |
| 2000 Q3 | 0.7 | 2.5 | -3.8 | 4.8 | 3.5 |
| 2000 Q2 | 1.7 | 5.4 | 1.2 | 5.5 | 4.5 |
| 2000 Q1 | 3.3 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 |
| 1999 Q4 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 3.9 |
| 1999 Q3 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 1.9 | 3.6 |
| 1999 Q2 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 7.6 | 1.7 | 2.5 |
| 1999 Q1 | -1.1 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 2.7 |
| 1998 Q4 | -0.6 | 3 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 2.7 |
| 1998 Q3 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 3 | 3 |
| 1998 Q2 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 3.2 |
| 1998 Q1 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 3.4 |
Note: TP: Total Production; MFG: Manufacturing; CONS: Construction; SERV: Services; GVA BP: Gross Value Added at Basic Prices; GVA EX: Gross Value Added excluding Oil and Gas
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
Table VH-5 provides contributions to value added by expenditure components in a quarter relative to the prior quarter. Household final consumption deducted 1.59 percentage points in IQ2020. Household final consumption deducted 12.47 percentage points in IIQ2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021). Household final consumption added 12.13 percentage points in IIIQ2020. Household financial consumption deducted 1.11 percentage points in IVQ2020. Household final consumption deducted 2.54 percentage points in IQ2021. Household final consumption added 4.01 percentage points in IIQ2021. Net trade deducted 2.63 percentage points in IQ2020. Net trade contributed 3.56 percentage points in IIQ2020. Net trade subtracted 4.48 percentage points in IIIQ2020. Net trade deducted 2.16 percentage points in IVQ2020. Net trade contributed 1.21 percentage points in IQ2021. Net trade contributed 0.95 percentage points in IIQ2021. GFCF deducted 0.45 percentage points in IQ2020. GFC deducted 3.38 percentage points in IIQ2020. GFCF added 3.32 percentage points in IIIQ2020. GFCF added 0.79 percentage points in IVQ2020. GFC deducted 0.53 percentage points in IQ2021. GFCF added 0.15 percentage points in IIQ2021.
Table VH-5, UK, Contribution to Quarter on Prior Quarter of Growth of Value Added by Expenditure Components, %
| IQ2020 | IIQ2020 | IIIQ2020 | IVQ2020 | IQ2021 | IIQ2021 | |
| HFC | -1.59 | -12.47 | 12.13 | -1.11 | -2.54 | 4.01 |
| NPISH | -0.15 | -0.53 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| GOVT | -0.58 | -3.37 | 3.30 | 0.93 | 0.46 | 1.93 |
| GCF | 2.17 | -6.33 | 6.12 | 3.23 | -0.40 | -1.39 |
| GFCF | -0.45 | -3.38 | 3.32 | 0.79 | -0.53 | 0.15 |
| BI | -0.22 | -2.12 | 1.24 | 0.57 | -0.89 | 0.40 |
| Exports | -4.68 | -3.14 | -0.16 | 1.75 | -2.18 | 1.59 |
| Less Imports | -2.05 | -6.70 | 4.32 | 3.91 | -3.40 | 0.64 |
| Net Trade | -2.63 | 3.56 | -4.48 | -2.16 | 1.21 | 0.95 |
Components may not add because of rounding
HFC: Household Final Consumption; NPISH: NPISH Final Consumption; GOVT: General Government; GCF: Gross Capital Formation; GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation; BINV: Business Investment; EXP: Exports; IMP: Less Imports
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
Contributions of value added by expenditure components in a year relative to the prior year are in Table VH-6. Household final consumption added 1.4 percentage points in 2014 and 1.7 percentage points in 2015. Household final consumption added 2.39 percentage points 2016. Household final consumption contributed 0.64 percentage points in 2017. Household final consumption contributed 1.32 percentage points in 2018. Household final consumption added 0.77 percentage points in 2019. Household final consumption deducted 6.47 percentage points in 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021). Gross capital formation contributed 1.8 percentage points in 2014 and 0.8 percentage points in 2015. Gross capital formation deducted 0.10 percentage points in 2016. Gross capital formation contributed 0.13 percentage points in 2017. Gross capital formation contributed 0.19 percentage points in 2018. Gross capital formation deducted 0.01 percentage points in 2019. Gross capital formation deducted 2.22 percentage points in 2020. GFCF added 1.1 percentage points in 2014 and 0.6 percentage points in 2015. GFCF added 0.62 percentage points in 2016. GFCF contributed 0.49 percentage points in 2017. GFCF deducted 0.01 percentage points in 2018. GFCF added 0.10 percentage points in 2019. GFCF deducted 1.61 percentage points in 2020. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points in 2014 and subtracted 0.4 percentage points in 2015. Net trade deducted 0.52 percentage points in 2016. Net trade contributed 0.73 percentage points in 2017. Net trade deducted 0.13 percentage points in 2018. Net traded added 0.09 percentage points in 2019. Net trade contributed 0.80 percentage points in 2020.
Table VH-6, UK, Contribution to Growth on Prior Year of Value Added by Expenditure Components, %
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
| HFC | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2.39 | 0.64 |
| NPISH | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.04 | 0.09 |
| GOVT | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| GCF | 1.8 | 0.8 | -0.10 | 0.13 |
| GFCF | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.62 | 0.49 |
| BINV | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.41 | 0.16 |
| Exports | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.76 | 1.53 |
| Less Imports | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.28 | 0.80 |
| Net Trade | -0.6 | -0.4 | -0.52 | 0.73 |
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |
| HFC | 1.32 | 0.77 | -6.47 |
| NPISH | 0.20 | 0.05 | -0.49 |
| GOVT | 0.07 | 0.77 | -1.19 |
| GCF | 0.19 | -0.01 | -2.22 |
| GFCF | -0.01 | 0.10 | -1.61 |
| BINV | -0.21 | 0.09 | -1.11 |
| Exports | 0.83 | 1.02 | -4.55 |
| Less Imports | 0.96 | 0.93 | -5.35 |
| Net Trade | -0.13 | 0.09 | 0.80 |
HFC: Household Final Consumption; NPISH: NPISH Final Consumption; GOVT: General Government; GCF: Gross Capital Formation; GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation; BINV: Business Investment; EXP: Exports; IMP: Less Imports
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
Data updated for 2018, 2019 and 2020.
Table VH-L3 provides indicators of the labor force survey of the UK for May-Jul 2021 and earlier quarters. There had been stability in UK labor markets with the rate of unemployment changing from 4.5 percent in Jun-Aug 2020 to 4.5 percent in Jun-Aug 2021.
Table VH-L3, UK, Labor Force Survey Indicators, Thousands, SA
| LFHP | EMP | PART | UNE | RATE | |
| Jun-Aug 2019 | 41,339 | 32,693 | 75.9 | 1,314 | 3.9 |
| Jun-Aug 2020 | 41,357 | 32,465 | 75.4 | 1,543 | 4.5 |
| Sep-Nov 2020 | 41,328 | 32,304 | 74.9 | 1,739 | 5.1 |
| Dec-Feb 2021 | 41,308 | 32,155 | 74.7 | 1,705 | 5.0 |
| Mar-May 2021 | 41,295 | 32,180 | 74.8 | 1,637 | 4.8 |
| Jun-Aug 2021 | 41,285 | 32,416 | 75.3 | 1,510 | 4.5 |
| ∆ on Quarter | -10 | 235 | 0.5 | -126 | -0.4 |
| ∆% | 0.0 | 0.7 | -7.7 | ||
| ∆ on Year | 72 | -49 | -0.1 | -3.3 | -0.1 |
| ∆% | -0.2 | -0.2 | -2.2 |
Notes: LFHP: Labor Force Household Population Ages 16 to 64 in thousands; EMP: Employed Ages 16 and over in thousands; PART: Employment as % of Population Ages 16 to 64; UNE: Unemployed Ages 16 and over in thousands; Rate: Number Unemployed Ages 16 and over as % of Employed plus Unemployed
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021.
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