Cumulative Growth of US Manufacturing of 0.9 Percent From Apr 2021 to Sep 2021 at Annual Equivalent 1.8 Percent and decreasing 0.7 Percent in Sep 2021, US Manufacturing 4.6 Percent Higher Than A Year Earlier in the Global Recession, with Output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the Lockdown of Economic activity in the COVID-19 Event and the Through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021), US Manufacturing Underperforming Below Trend in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth Underperforming Below Trend Worldwide, Squeeze of Economic Activity by Carry Trades Induced by Zero Interest Rates, Accelerating Inflation, United States Inflation, World Inflation Waves, The current federal debt limit of the United States is $28.8 trillion (https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/136/Daily-Debt-Subject-to-Limit-Activity-10-22-2021.pdf). The Net International Investment Position of the United States, or foreign debt, is $15.4 trillion (https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2021-09/intinv221.pdf https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/10/total-nonfarm-hires-move-from-4986.html). The United States current account deficit is 3.3 percent of GDP in IIQ2021 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/10/total-nonfarm-hires-move-from-4986.html). The Treasury deficit of the United States reached $2.8 trillion in fiscal year 2021 (https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/). Total assets of Federal Reserve Banks reached $8.6 trillion on Oct 20, 2021 and securities held outright reached $8.0 trillion (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/h41.htm#h41tab1). US GDP nominal NSA reached $22.7 trillion in IIQ2021 (https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2021-09/gdp2q21_3rd.pdf), World Cyclical Slow Growth, Stagflation Risk and Government Intervention in Globalization
Carlos M. Pelaez
© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021.
I United States Industrial Production
II Squeeze of Economic Activity by Carry Trades Induced by Zero Interest Rates
I World Inflation Waves
IA Appendix: Transmission of Unconventional Monetary Policy
IB1 Theory
IB2 Policy
IB3 Evidence
IB4 Unwinding Strategy
IC United States Inflation
IC Long-term US Inflation
ID Current US Inflation
IE Theory and Reality of Economic History, Cyclical Slow Growth Not Secular Stagnation and Monetary Policy Based on Fear of Deflation
III World Financial Turbulence
IV Global Inflation
V World Economic Slowdown
VA United States
VB Japan
VC China
VD Euro Area
VE Germany
VF France
VG Italy
VH United Kingdom
VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets
VII Economic Indicators
VIII Interest Rates
IX Conclusion
References
Appendixes
Appendix I The Great Inflation
IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies
IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact
IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort
IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis
IIB Squeeze of Economic Activity by Carry Trades Induced by Zero Interest Rates. Long-term economic growth in Japan significantly improved by increasing competitiveness in world markets. Net trade of exports and imports is an important component of the GDP accounts of Japan. Table VB-3 provides quarterly data for net trade, exports and imports of Japan. Net trade had strong positive contributions to GDP growth in Japan in all quarters from IQ2007 to IIQ2009 with exception of IVQ2008, IIIQ2008 and IQ2009. The US recession is dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) as beginning in IVQ2007 (Dec) and ending in IIQ2009 (Jun) (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html). Net trade contributions helped to cushion the economy of Japan from the global recession. Net trade deducted from GDP growth in six of the nine quarters from IVQ2010 to IQ2012. The only strong contribution of net trade was 3.6 percent in IIIQ2011. Net trade added 0.7 percent in IQ2012, deducting 1.9 percent in IIQ2012. Net trade deducted 1.9 percent in IIIQ2012. Net traded deducted 0.3 percent in IVQ2012. Net trade added 1.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2013 but deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIQ2013, deducting 1.3 percentage points in IIIQ2013 and 2.1 percentage points in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 0.9 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2014. Net trade added 4.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2014 and deducted 0.3 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 1.8 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2014. Net trade contributed 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2015 and deducted 0.8-percentage points in IIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.5 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015 and added 1.4 percentage points in IQ2016. Net trade contributed 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade added 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2016 and contributed 1.2 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade contributed 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017 and deducted 0.9 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade contributed 1.9 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017 and deducted 0.0 percentage-point in IVQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018 and contributed 0.0 percentage points in IIQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.9 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018 and deducted 1.6 percentage points in IVQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.9 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2019 with export contraction deducting 1.5 percent and import contraction contributing 2.4 percent. Net trade deducted 1.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2019. Net trade deducted 1.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade contributed 2.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 1.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2020 with export contraction deducting 3.3 percentage points and import contraction adding 2.1 percentage points. Net trade deducted 10.2 percentage points in IIQ2020 with export contraction deducting 10.7 percentage points and imports contributing 0.5 percentage points. Net trade contributed 11.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2020 with export growth contributing 4.7 percentage points and import contraction contribution 6.5 percentage points. Net trade contributed 4.2 percentage points to GDP in IVQ2020 with export growth contributing 7.3 percentage points and imports deducting 3.1 percentage points. Net trade deducted 0.9 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2021 with exports contributing 1.4 percent and imports deducting 2.4 percent. Private consumption assumed the role of driver of Japan’s economic growth but should moderate as in most mature economies.
Table VB-3, Japan, Contributions to Changes in Real GDP, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (SAAR), %
| Net Trade | Exports | Imports | |
| 2021 | |||
| I | -0.9 | 1.4 | -2.4 |
| 2020 | |||
| I | -1.2 | -3.3 | 2.1 |
| II | -10.2 | -10.7 | 0.5 |
| III | 11.2 | 4.7 | 6.5 |
| IV | 4.2 | 7.3 | -3.1 |
| 2019 | |||
| I | 0.9 | -1.5 | 2.4 |
| II | -1.2 | 0.3 | -1.5 |
| III | -1.3 | -0.4 | -0.9 |
| IV | 2.3 | 0.2 | 2.1 |
| 2018 | |||
| I | 0.3 | 0.7 | -0.5 |
| II | 0.0 | 0.6 | -0.6 |
| III | -0.9 | -1.6 | 0.7 |
| IV | -1.6 | 1.4 | -3.0 |
| 2017 | |||
| I | 0.6 | 1.3 | -0.7 |
| II | -0.9 | 0.0 | -0.8 |
| III | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| IV | 0.0 | 1.6 | -1.6 |
| 2016 | |||
| I | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.9 |
| II | 0.3 | -0.5 | 0.8 |
| III | 1.1 | 1.4 | -0.3 |
| IV | 1.2 | 2.0 | -0.9 |
| 2015 | |||
| I | 0.4 | 1.0 | -0.6 |
| II | -0.8 | -2.5 | 1.7 |
| III | -0.5 | 1.7 | -2.2 |
| IV | 0.0 | -0.6 | 0.5 |
| 2014 | |||
| I | -0.9 | 3.8 | -4.8 |
| II | 4.2 | 0.9 | 3.3 |
| III | -0.3 | 1.1 | -1.3 |
| IV | 1.8 | 2.1 | -0.3 |
| 2013 | |||
| I | 1.5 | 1.8 | -0.3 |
| II | -0.2 | 1.9 | -2.0 |
| III | -1.3 | 0.0 | -1.3 |
| IV | -2.1 | -0.2 | -1.9 |
| 2012 | |||
| I | 0.7 | 1.8 | -1.1 |
| II | -1.9 | -0.5 | -1.4 |
| III | -1.9 | -2.1 | 0.2 |
| IV | -0.3 | -2.0 | 1.7 |
| 2011 | |||
| I | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.7 |
| II | -4.3 | -4.6 | 0.3 |
| III | 3.6 | 5.5 | -1.9 |
| IV | -2.6 | -1.6 | -1.0 |
| 2010 | |||
| I | 1.8 | 3.2 | -1.4 |
| II | 0.3 | 2.8 | -2.5 |
| III | 0.7 | 1.7 | -1.0 |
| IV | -0.1 | 0.2 | -0.3 |
| 2009 | |||
| I | -4.6 | -16.0 | 11.4 |
| II | 7.4 | 4.6 | 2.8 |
| III | 2.1 | 5.2 | -3.1 |
| IV | 2.8 | 4.1 | -1.4 |
| 2008 | |||
| I | 0.9 | 1.8 | -0.9 |
| II | 0.4 | -1.4 | 1.8 |
| III | -0.1 | 0.1 | -0.2 |
| IV | -10.3 | -9.1 | -1.1 |
| 2007 | |||
| I | 1.0 | 1.5 | -0.5 |
| II | 0.7 | 1.6 | -0.9 |
| III | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| IV | 1.2 | 1.9 | -0.8 |
Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office
https://www.cao.go.jp/index-e.html
http://wwwa.cao.go.jp/notice/20191101notice.html
There was milder increase in Japan’s export corporate goods price index during the global recession in 2008 but similar sharp decline during the bank balance sheets effect in late 2008, as shown in Chart IV-5 of the Bank of Japan. Japan exports industrial goods whose prices have been less dynamic than those of commodities and raw materials. As a result, the export CGPI on the yen basis in Chart IV-5 trends down with oscillations after a brief rise in the final part of the recession in 2009. The export corporate goods price index on the yen basis fell from 93.9 in Jun 2009 to 84.1 in Jan 2012 or minus 10.4 percent and increased to 99.9 in Sep 2021 for gain of 18.8 percent relative to Jan 2012 and increase of 6.4 percent relative to Jun 2009. The choice of Jun 2009 is designed to capture the reversal of risk aversion beginning in Sep 2008 with the announcement of toxic assets in banks that would be withdrawn with the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) (Cochrane and Zingales 2009). Reversal of risk aversion in the form of flight to the USD and obligations of the US government opened the way to renewed carry trades from zero interest rates to exposures in risk financial assets such as commodities. Japan exports industrial products and imports commodities and raw materials. The recovery from the global recession began in the third quarter of 2009.
Chart IV-5, Japan, Export Corporate Goods Price Index, Monthly, Yen Basis, 2008-2021
Source: Bank of Japan
https://www.stat-search.boj.or.jp/index_en.html
Chart IV-5A provides the export corporate goods price index on the basis of the contract currency. The export corporate goods price index on the basis of the contract currency increased from 105.9 in Jun 2009 to 111.5 in Apr 2012 or 5.3 percent but dropped to 105.7 in Sep 2021 or minus 5.2 percent relative to Apr 2012 and fell 0.2 percent to 105.7 in Sep 2021 relative to Jun 2009.
Chart IV-5A, Japan, Export Corporate Goods Price Index, Monthly, Contract Currency Basis, 2008-2021
Source: Bank of Japan
https://www.stat-search.boj.or.jp/index_en.html
Japan imports primary commodities and raw materials. As a result, the import corporate goods price index on the yen basis in Chart IV-6 shows an upward trend after declining from the increase during the global recession in 2008 driven by carry trades from fed funds rates. The index increases with carry trades from zero interest rates into commodity futures and declines during risk aversion from late 2008 into beginning of 2008 originating in doubts about soundness of US bank balance sheets. Measurement that is more careful should show that the terms of trade of Japan, export prices relative to import prices, declined during the commodity shocks originating in unconventional monetary policy. The decline of the terms of trade restricted potential growth of income in Japan (for the relation of terms of trade and growth see Pelaez 1979, 1976a). The import corporate goods price index on the yen basis increased from 82.4 in Jun 2009 to 99.6 in Apr 2012 or 20.9 percent and to 108.2 in Sep 2021 or increase of 8.6 percent relative to Apr 2012 and increase of 31.3 percent relative to Jun 2009. There are strong downward effects on input prices in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021).
Chart IV-6, Japan, Import Corporate Goods Price Index, Monthly, Yen Basis, 2008-2021
Source: Bank of Japan
https://www.stat-search.boj.or.jp/index_en.html
Chart IV-6A provides the import corporate goods price index on the contract currency basis. The import corporate goods price index on the basis of the contract currency increased from 95.0 in Jun 2009 to 131.6 in Apr 2012 or 38.5 percent and to 116.1 in Sep 2021 or minus 11.8 percent relative to Apr 2012 and increase of 22.2 percent relative to Jun 2009. There is evident deterioration of the terms of trade of Japan: the export corporate goods price index on the basis of the contract currency decreased 0.2 percent from Jun 2009 to Sep 2021 while the import corporate goods price index increased 22.2 percent. Prices of Japan’s exports of corporate goods, mostly industrial products, increased only 5.3 percent from Jun 2009 to Apr 2012, while imports of corporate goods, mostly commodities and raw materials, increased 38.5 percent. Unconventional monetary policy induces carry trades from zero interest rates to exposures in commodities that squeeze economic activity of industrial countries by increases in prices of imported commodities and raw materials during periods without risk aversion. Reversals of carry trades during periods of risk aversion decrease prices of exported commodities and raw materials that squeeze economic activity in economies exporting commodities and raw materials. Devaluation of the dollar by unconventional monetary policy could increase US competitiveness in world markets but economic activity is squeezed by increases in prices of imported commodities and raw materials. Unconventional monetary policy causes instability worldwide instead of the mission of central banks of promoting financial and economic stability. There are strong downward effects on input prices in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021).
Chart IV-6A, Japan, Import Corporate Goods Price Index, Monthly, Contract Currency Basis, 2008-2021
Source: Bank of Japan
https://www.stat-search.boj.or.jp/index_en.html
Table IV-6B provides the Bank of Japan’s Corporate Goods Price indexes of exports and imports on the yen and contract bases from Jan 2008 to Sep 2021. There are oscillations of the indexes that are shown vividly in the four charts above. For the entire period from Jan 2008 to Sep 2021, the export index on the contract currency basis decreased 1.5 percent and decreased 3.3 percent on the yen basis. For the entire period from Jan 2008 to Sep 2021, the import price index increased 4.7 percent on the contract currency basis and increased 3.2 percent on the yen basis. During significant part of the expansion period, prices of Japan’s exports of corporate goods on the contract currency, mostly industrial products, increased only 5.3 percent from Jun 2009 to Apr 2012, while prices of imports of corporate goods on the contract currency, mostly commodities and raw materials, increased 38.5 percent. The charts show sharp deteriorations in relative prices of exports to prices of imports during multiple periods. Price margins of Japan’s producers are subject to periodic squeezes resulting from carry trades from zero interest rates of monetary policy to exposures in commodities. There are strong downward effects on input prices in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021).
Table IV-6B, Japan, Exports and Imports Corporate Goods Price Index, Contract Currency Basis and Yen Basis
| X-CC | X-Y | M-CC | M-Y | |
| 2008/01 | 107.3 | 103.3 | 110.9 | 104.8 |
| 2008/02 | 107.9 | 103.9 | 112.8 | 106.2 |
| 2008/03 | 108.7 | 100.7 | 115.1 | 103.4 |
| 2008/04 | 109.9 | 103.2 | 121.3 | 110.3 |
| 2008/05 | 110.7 | 105 | 124.9 | 114.9 |
| 2008/06 | 111.9 | 108 | 131.6 | 123.6 |
| 2008/07 | 113.2 | 109.2 | 135 | 126.8 |
| 2008/08 | 112.1 | 109.2 | 135.6 | 129.5 |
| 2008/09 | 111 | 105.8 | 129 | 120.8 |
| 2008/10 | 108.3 | 98.1 | 120.2 | 107 |
| 2008/11 | 106.6 | 93.5 | 107.7 | 93.2 |
| 2008/12 | 105.9 | 90 | 98.4 | 81.9 |
| 2009/01 | 106 | 89 | 94.3 | 77.9 |
| 2009/02 | 105.4 | 89.6 | 94.4 | 79 |
| 2009/03 | 105.2 | 93.2 | 93.8 | 81.9 |
| 2009/04 | 105.5 | 94.5 | 93 | 81.9 |
| 2009/05 | 105.4 | 92.9 | 92.5 | 80 |
| 2009/06 | 105.9 | 93.9 | 95 | 82.4 |
| 2009/07 | 105.4 | 92.2 | 98.3 | 83.7 |
| 2009/08 | 106.3 | 93.4 | 98.7 | 84.4 |
| 2009/09 | 106.3 | 91.4 | 100.2 | 83.4 |
| 2009/10 | 106 | 90.5 | 100.2 | 82.8 |
| 2009/11 | 106.4 | 90.2 | 102.2 | 83.5 |
| 2009/12 | 106.3 | 90.1 | 105.1 | 85.9 |
| 2010/01 | 107.5 | 91.4 | 106.8 | 88.1 |
| 2010/02 | 107.8 | 90.9 | 107.5 | 87.9 |
| 2010/03 | 107.8 | 91.1 | 106.8 | 87.4 |
| 2010/04 | 108.7 | 93.6 | 110 | 92.1 |
| 2010/05 | 108.9 | 92.1 | 112 | 92.4 |
| 2010/06 | 108.2 | 90.9 | 110.2 | 90.1 |
| 2010/07 | 107.5 | 88.6 | 110 | 87.9 |
| 2010/08 | 107.2 | 87.1 | 109.6 | 85.9 |
| 2010/09 | 107.5 | 86.8 | 110.2 | 85.6 |
| 2010/10 | 108.2 | 86.3 | 110.7 | 84.4 |
| 2010/11 | 108.9 | 87.1 | 113 | 86.5 |
| 2010/12 | 109.4 | 88 | 115 | 88.6 |
| 2011/01 | 110.4 | 88.2 | 118.1 | 90.4 |
| 2011/02 | 111.3 | 89 | 120.1 | 91.9 |
| 2011/03 | 111.9 | 89.1 | 123.2 | 93.6 |
| 2011/04 | 112.6 | 91 | 127.7 | 98.6 |
| 2011/05 | 112.3 | 89.4 | 130.9 | 99 |
| 2011/06 | 112.2 | 88.8 | 129.4 | 97.3 |
| 2011/07 | 112 | 88 | 130.3 | 97.1 |
| 2011/08 | 112 | 86.4 | 130.6 | 95.2 |
| 2011/09 | 112.1 | 86 | 128.9 | 93.6 |
| 2011/10 | 111.4 | 85.2 | 128.4 | 93 |
| 2011/11 | 110.2 | 84.8 | 127.1 | 92.8 |
| 2011/12 | 109.7 | 84.6 | 127.9 | 93.6 |
| 2012/01 | 110.1 | 84.1 | 126.7 | 91.8 |
| 2012/02 | 110.7 | 85.7 | 127.6 | 93.7 |
| 2012/03 | 111.3 | 88.8 | 130.3 | 99.5 |
| 2012/04 | 111.5 | 88.3 | 131.6 | 99.6 |
| 2012/05 | 110.6 | 86.2 | 130.1 | 96.7 |
| 2012/06 | 109.6 | 85 | 126.9 | 94 |
| 2012/07 | 108.8 | 84.1 | 123.4 | 91.2 |
| 2012/08 | 109.1 | 84.2 | 123.8 | 91.3 |
| 2012/09 | 109.2 | 84.2 | 126.3 | 92.7 |
| 2012/10 | 109.3 | 84.7 | 125.4 | 92.7 |
| 2012/11 | 109.1 | 85.8 | 124.7 | 93.8 |
| 2012/12 | 108.9 | 87.7 | 124.9 | 96.5 |
| 2013/01 | 109.2 | 91.6 | 125.4 | 101.7 |
| 2013/02 | 109.7 | 94.8 | 126.5 | 105.9 |
| 2013/03 | 109.5 | 95.4 | 126.8 | 107.5 |
| 2013/04 | 108.3 | 96.2 | 125.7 | 109.1 |
| 2013/05 | 107.7 | 97.6 | 124 | 110.4 |
| 2013/06 | 107.3 | 94.9 | 123.4 | 106.8 |
| 2013/07 | 107.2 | 96.2 | 122.9 | 108.2 |
| 2013/08 | 107 | 94.9 | 123.2 | 106.9 |
| 2013/09 | 107 | 95.9 | 124.5 | 109.2 |
| 2013/10 | 107.3 | 95.5 | 124.6 | 108.3 |
| 2013/11 | 107.2 | 96.6 | 124.6 | 110 |
| 2013/12 | 107.2 | 98.8 | 125.4 | 113.6 |
| 2014/01 | 107.3 | 99 | 126 | 114.6 |
| 2014/02 | 106.9 | 97.7 | 125.4 | 112.5 |
| 2014/03 | 106.6 | 97.6 | 124.9 | 112.2 |
| 2014/04 | 106.3 | 97.5 | 124.1 | 111.8 |
| 2014/05 | 106.2 | 96.8 | 123.8 | 110.9 |
| 2014/06 | 105.9 | 96.7 | 123.9 | 111.2 |
| 2014/07 | 106 | 96.5 | 123.9 | 110.9 |
| 2014/08 | 106.1 | 97.3 | 123.7 | 111.6 |
| 2014/09 | 105.9 | 99.3 | 122.8 | 114 |
| 2014/10 | 105.2 | 99.1 | 120.7 | 112.7 |
| 2014/11 | 104.8 | 103.4 | 117.8 | 115.9 |
| 2014/12 | 103.8 | 104.1 | 113.8 | 114 |
| 2015/01 | 102.2 | 101.2 | 108.2 | 106.6 |
| 2015/02 | 101.2 | 100.1 | 102.1 | 100.7 |
| 2015/03 | 101.3 | 100.9 | 103.1 | 102.6 |
| 2015/04 | 101.1 | 100.2 | 102 | 101 |
| 2015/05 | 101.4 | 101.4 | 101.6 | 101.5 |
| 2015/06 | 101.3 | 102.9 | 102.5 | 104.3 |
| 2015/07 | 100.6 | 101.7 | 101.5 | 102.9 |
| 2015/08 | 99.8 | 100.9 | 99 | 100.4 |
| 2015/09 | 98.6 | 98.2 | 96.6 | 96.2 |
| 2015/10 | 97.9 | 97.3 | 95.5 | 95 |
| 2015/11 | 97.5 | 98 | 94.9 | 95.7 |
| 2015/12 | 97.1 | 97.3 | 92.9 | 93.2 |
| 2016/01 | 96.4 | 94.7 | 89.9 | 88.3 |
| 2016/02 | 95.9 | 92.7 | 87.5 | 84.4 |
| 2016/03 | 96.1 | 92 | 87.3 | 83.2 |
| 2016/04 | 96.4 | 91 | 88.2 | 82.4 |
| 2016/05 | 96.5 | 90.6 | 88.6 | 82.4 |
| 2016/06 | 96.5 | 88.8 | 89.9 | 81.6 |
| 2016/07 | 96.9 | 88.2 | 90.8 | 81.5 |
| 2016/08 | 96.9 | 87.1 | 90.7 | 79.9 |
| 2016/09 | 97 | 87.5 | 91.1 | 80.7 |
| 2016/10 | 97.4 | 88.6 | 91.1 | 81.6 |
| 2016/11 | 98.1 | 91.2 | 93.8 | 86.3 |
| 2016/12 | 98.7 | 95.5 | 93.7 | 90.5 |
| 2017/01 | 99.4 | 95.6 | 96.1 | 92.1 |
| 2017/02 | 99.8 | 95.3 | 97.6 | 92.5 |
| 2017/03 | 100.3 | 95.7 | 98.4 | 93.3 |
| 2017/04 | 99.8 | 93.7 | 98.3 | 91.4 |
| 2017/05 | 99.4 | 94.6 | 98.1 | 92.6 |
| 2017/06 | 99.2 | 93.9 | 97.1 | 91 |
| 2017/07 | 99.3 | 94.9 | 96.3 | 91.2 |
| 2017/08 | 99.9 | 94.4 | 96.5 | 90.1 |
| 2017/09 | 100.5 | 95.5 | 97.8 | 91.8 |
| 2017/10 | 101.2 | 97.2 | 99.2 | 94.3 |
| 2017/11 | 101.5 | 97.4 | 100.3 | 95.4 |
| 2017/12 | 101.7 | 97.7 | 102.1 | 97.1 |
| 2018/01 | 101.9 | 97.1 | 102.9 | 96.7 |
| 2018/02 | 102.4 | 96.1 | 104.9 | 96.6 |
| 2018/03 | 102.6 | 95.2 | 104.4 | 94.9 |
| 2018/04 | 102.2 | 95.5 | 104.7 | 96.1 |
| 2018/05 | 102.7 | 96.9 | 106.3 | 98.8 |
| 2018/06 | 102.7 | 97 | 108.3 | 100.8 |
| 2018/07 | 102.4 | 97.4 | 108.3 | 101.8 |
| 2018/08 | 102.3 | 97 | 108 | 101.2 |
| 2018/09 | 102.2 | 97.4 | 108 | 101.8 |
| 2018/10 | 102.4 | 97.9 | 109.2 | 103.5 |
| 2018/11 | 102.1 | 97.9 | 109.7 | 104.3 |
| 2018/12 | 100.8 | 96.2 | 105.8 | 100.1 |
| 2019/01 | 100 | 93.7 | 102.6 | 94.8 |
| 2019/02 | 100.1 | 94.6 | 102.7 | 95.8 |
| 2019/03 | 100.4 | 95.3 | 103.6 | 97.2 |
| 2019/04 | 100.6 | 95.7 | 103.6 | 97.5 |
| 2019/05 | 100.5 | 94.4 | 104.5 | 97 |
| 2019/06 | 99.7 | 92.8 | 103.5 | 95 |
| 2019/07 | 99.3 | 92.6 | 101.4 | 93.2 |
| 2019/08 | 99.3 | 91.4 | 102.2 | 92.6 |
| 2019/09 | 98.7 | 91.4 | 100.7 | 91.9 |
| 2019/10 | 98.6 | 91.7 | 100.6 | 92.3 |
| 2019/11 | 98.4 | 91.9 | 100.3 | 92.5 |
| 2019/12 | 98.3 | 92 | 101.1 | 93.5 |
| 2020/01 | 98.5 | 92.3 | 101.6 | 94 |
| 2020/02 | 98.6 | 92.5 | 101.3 | 94.1 |
| 2020/03 | 97.8 | 90.4 | 98.1 | 89.6 |
| 2020/04 | 96.6 | 89.5 | 91.8 | 84.3 |
| 2020/05 | 95.6 | 88.3 | 86.4 | 79.1 |
| 2020/06 | 95.9 | 89 | 86.8 | 79.6 |
| 2020/07 | 96.7 | 89.5 | 89.1 | 81.4 |
| 2020/08 | 97.2 | 89.8 | 90.6 | 82.4 |
| 2020/09 | 97.5 | 90 | 90.8 | 82.4 |
| 2020/10 | 97.7 | 89.9 | 90.8 | 82.2 |
| 2020/11 | 98.2 | 90 | 91.9 | 82.7 |
| 2020/12 | 99 | 90.7 | 94 | 84.3 |
| 2021/01 | 100.1 | 91.7 | 97.4 | 87.2 |
| 2021/02 | 100.5 | 92.8 | 100.9 | 91.2 |
| 2021/03 | 101.6 | 95.4 | 102.6 | 94.8 |
| 2021/04 | 103.1 | 97.1 | 105 | 97.3 |
| 2021/05 | 104.1 | 98.3 | 107.5 | 99.7 |
| 2021/06 | 104.7 | 99.1 | 109.7 | 102.4 |
| 2021/07 | 105.5 | 99.8 | 112.2 | 104.7 |
| 2021/08 | 105.6 | 99.6 | 115.1 | 107 |
| 2021/09 | 105.7 | 99.9 | 116.1 | 108.2 |
Note: X-CC: Exports Contract Currency; X-Y: Exports Yen; M-CC: Imports Contract; M-Y: Imports Yen
Source: Bank of Japan
https://www.stat-search.boj.or.jp/index_en.html
Japan also experienced sharp increase in inflation during the 1970s as in the episode of the Great Inflation in the US. Monetary policy focused on accommodating higher inflation, with emphasis solely on the mandate of promoting employment, has been blamed as deliberate or because of model error or imperfect measurement for creating the Great Inflation (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2011/05/slowing-growth-global-inflation-great.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2011/04/new-economics-of-rose-garden-turned.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2011/03/is-there-second-act-of-us-great.html and Appendix I The Great Inflation; see Taylor 1993, 1997, 1998LB, 1999, 2012FP, 2012Mar27, 2012Mar28, 2012JMCB and http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/rules-versus-discretionary-authorities.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/06/rules-versus-discretionary-authorities.html). A remarkable similarity with US experience is the sharp rise of the CGPI of Japan in 2008 driven by carry trades from policy interest rates rapidly falling to zero to exposures in commodity futures during a global recession. Japan had the same sharp waves of consumer price inflation during the 1970s as in the US (see Chart IV-5A and associated table at: 9/26/21 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/09/world-inflation-waves-high-inflation.html
8/22/21 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/08/cumulative-growth-of-us-manufacturing.html
7/25/21 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/07/cumulative-growth-of-us-manufacturing.html
6/20/21 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/06/unchanged-fomc-target-fed-funds-rate.html
5/23/21 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/05/cumulative-growth-of-us-manufacturing.html 4/25/21 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/04/rising-inflation-world-inflation-waves.html
3/28/21 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/03/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-43-percent-in.html
2/28/21 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/02/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-41-percent-in.html
1/24/21 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/01/cumulative-growth-of-us-manufacturing.html
12/27/2020 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/12/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-334-percent-in.html
11/22/2020 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/11/cumulative-growth-of-us-manufacturing.html
10/25/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/10/cumulative-growth-of-us-manufacturing.html
6/28/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/06/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html 5/24/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/05/recovery-without-hiring-twenty-million.html
5/3/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/05/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_78.html
3/22/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/03/sharp-contraction-of-valuations-of-risk.html 2/23/20 https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/02/declining-valuations-of-risk-financial.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/01/declining-valuations-of-risk-financial.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/oscillating-valuations-of-risk.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/oscillating-risk-financial-assets-world.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/dollar-depreciation-fluctuating.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/09/uncertain-fomc-outlook-of-monetary.html
https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/contraction-of-valuations-of-risk.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/global-manufacturing-stress-world.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/06/fomc-outlook-uncertainty-central-bank.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/05/contraction-of-risk-financial-assets.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/04/high-levels-of-valuations-of-risk.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/03/inverted-yield-curve-of-treasury.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/02/revaluation-of-yuanus-dollar-exchange.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2019/01/delays-in-updating-united-states.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/12/increase-of-interest-rates-by-monetary.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/11/weaker-world-economic-growth-with.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/10/contraction-of-valuations-of-risk.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/09/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/08/revision-of-united-states-national.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/07/continuing-gradual-increases-in-fed.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/dollar-strengthening-world-inflation.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/04/dollar-appreciation-mediocre-cyclical.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_31.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/03/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2018/02/twenty-four-million-unemployed-or.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/dollar-devaluation-cyclically.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/dollar-revaluation-and-increase-of.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/destruction-of-household-nonfinancial.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/dollar-devaluation-and-interest-rate.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/data-dependent-monetary-policy-with_30.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/dollar-devaluation-and-rising-yields.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/04/dollar-devaluation-mediocre-cyclical.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/04/mediocre-cyclical-economic-growth-with.html https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/rising-valuations-of-risk-financial.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/01/rules-versus-discretionary-authorities.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/dollar-revaluation-rising-yields-and.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/10/mediocre-cyclical-united-states_30.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/10/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/08/and-as-ever-economic-outlook-is.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/business-fixed-investment-has-been-soft.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/financial-asset-values-rebound-from.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/05/appropriate-for-fed-to-increase.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/03/contraction-of-united-states-corporate.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2016/01/closely-monitoring-global-economic-and.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/dollar-revaluation-and-decreasing.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/dollar-revaluation-constraining.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-increase-considered.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-increase-considered.htmlhttp://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/monetary-policy-designed-on-measurable.html
http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/fluctuations-of-global-financial.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/turbulence-of-valuations-of-financial_77.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/international-valuations-of-financial_29.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/dollar-revaluation-squeezing-corporate_97.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/dollar-devaluation-and-carry-trade.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/dollar-revaluation-and-financial-risk.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/irrational-exuberance-mediocre-cyclical.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitical-and-financial-risks_71.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-uncertainty-mediocre-cyclical_8145.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/collapse-of-united-states-dynamism-of.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/exit-risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world_1.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/twenty-eight-million-unemployed-or_561.html and at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/increasing-interest-rate-risk_1.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/07/recovery-without-jobs-stagnating-real_09.html).
Chart IV-7, Japan, Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index, Monthly, 1960-2021
Source: Bank of Japan
https://www.stat-search.boj.or.jp/index_en.html
Chart IV-8 provides the producer price index of finished goods of the US monthly from 1960 to 2021. There is trend of increase over the long-term with oscillation and current increase.
Chart IV-8, US, Producer Price Index Finished Goods, Monthly, 1960-2021
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
There are two categories of responses in the Empire State Manufacturing Survey of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overview.html): current conditions and expectations for the next six months. There are responses in the survey for two types of prices: prices received or inputs of production and prices paid or sales prices of products. Table IV-5 provides indexes for the two categories and within them for the two types of prices from Dec 2010 to Oct 2021. The index of current prices paid or costs of inputs moved from 16.1 in Dec 2012 to 78.7 in Oct 2021 while the index of current prices received or sales prices moved from 1.1 in Dec 2012 to 43.5 in Oct 2021. The farther the index is from the area of no change at zero, the faster the rate of change. Prices paid or costs of inputs at 78.7 in Oct 2021 are expanding at faster pace than prices received or of sales of products at 43.5. The index of future prices paid or expectations of costs of inputs in the next six months moved from 51.6 in Dec 2012 to 67.6 in Oct 2021 while the index of future prices received or expectation of sales prices in the next six months moved from 25.8 in Dec 2012 to 50.0 in Oct 2021. Prices paid or of inputs at 67.6 in Oct 2021 are expected to increase at a faster pace in the next six months than prices received or prices of sales products at 50.0 in Oct 2021. Prices of sales of finished products are less dynamic than prices of costs of inputs during waves of increases. Prices of costs of inputs fall less rapidly than prices of sales of finished products during waves of price decreases. As a result, margins of prices of sales less costs of inputs oscillate with typical deterioration against producers, forcing companies to manage tightly costs and labor inputs. Instability of sales/costs margins discourages investment and hiring.
Table IV-5, US, FRBNY Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Diffusion Indexes, Prices Paid and Prices Received, SA
| Current Prices Paid | Current Prices Received | Future Prices Paid | Future Prices Received | |
| 12/31/2010 | 28.4 | 3.4 | 58 | 38.6 |
| 1/31/2011 | 35.8 | 15.8 | 60 | 42.1 |
| 2/28/2011 | 45.8 | 16.9 | 55.4 | 27.7 |
| 3/31/2011 | 53.2 | 20.8 | 71.4 | 36.4 |
| 4/30/2011 | 57.7 | 26.9 | 56.4 | 38.5 |
| 5/31/2011 | 69.9 | 28 | 68.8 | 35.5 |
| 6/30/2011 | 56.1 | 11.2 | 55.1 | 19.4 |
| 7/31/2011 | 43.3 | 5.6 | 51.1 | 30 |
| 8/31/2011 | 28.3 | 2.2 | 42.4 | 15.2 |
| 9/30/2011 | 32.6 | 8.7 | 53.3 | 22.8 |
| 10/31/2011 | 22.5 | 4.5 | 40.4 | 18 |
| 11/30/2011 | 18.3 | 6.1 | 36.6 | 25.6 |
| 12/31/2011 | 24.4 | 3.5 | 57 | 36 |
| 1/31/2012 | 26.4 | 23.1 | 53.8 | 30.8 |
| 2/29/2012 | 25.9 | 15.3 | 62.4 | 34.1 |
| 3/31/2012 | 50.6 | 13.6 | 66.7 | 32.1 |
| 4/30/2012 | 45.8 | 19.3 | 50.6 | 22.9 |
| 5/31/2012 | 37.3 | 12 | 57.8 | 22.9 |
| 6/30/2012 | 19.6 | 1 | 34 | 17.5 |
| 7/31/2012 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 35.8 | 16 |
| 8/31/2012 | 16.5 | 2.4 | 31.8 | 14.1 |
| 9/30/2012 | 19.1 | 5.3 | 40.4 | 23.4 |
| 10/31/2012 | 17.2 | 4.3 | 44.1 | 24.7 |
| 11/30/2012 | 14.6 | 5.6 | 39.3 | 15.7 |
| 12/31/2012 | 16.1 | 1.1 | 51.6 | 25.8 |
| 1/31/2013 | 22.6 | 10.8 | 38.7 | 21.5 |
| 2/28/2013 | 26.3 | 8.1 | 44.4 | 13.1 |
| 3/31/2013 | 25.8 | 2.2 | 50.5 | 23.7 |
| 4/30/2013 | 28.4 | 5.7 | 44.3 | 14.8 |
| 5/31/2013 | 20.5 | 4.5 | 29.5 | 14.8 |
| 6/30/2013 | 21 | 11.3 | 45.2 | 17.7 |
| 7/31/2013 | 17.4 | 1.1 | 28.3 | 12 |
| 8/31/2013 | 20.5 | 3.6 | 41 | 19.3 |
| 9/30/2013 | 21.5 | 8.6 | 39.8 | 24.7 |
| 10/31/2013 | 21.7 | 2.4 | 45.8 | 25.3 |
| 11/30/2013 | 17.1 | -3.9 | 42.1 | 17.1 |
| 12/31/2013 | 15.7 | 3.6 | 48.2 | 27.7 |
| 1/31/2014 | 36.6 | 13.4 | 45.1 | 23.2 |
| 2/28/2014 | 25 | 15 | 40 | 23.8 |
| 3/31/2014 | 21.2 | 2.4 | 43.5 | 25.9 |
| 4/30/2014 | 22.4 | 10.2 | 33.7 | 14.3 |
| 5/31/2014 | 19.8 | 6.6 | 31.9 | 14.3 |
| 6/30/2014 | 17.2 | 4.3 | 36.6 | 16.1 |
| 7/31/2014 | 25 | 6.8 | 37.5 | 18.2 |
| 8/31/2014 | 27.3 | 8 | 42 | 21.6 |
| 9/30/2014 | 23.9 | 17.4 | 43.5 | 32.6 |
| 10/31/2014 | 11.4 | 6.8 | 42 | 26.1 |
| 11/30/2014 | 10.6 | 0 | 41.5 | 25.5 |
| 12/31/2014 | 10.4 | 6.3 | 40.6 | 32.3 |
| 1/31/2015 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 33.7 | 15.8 |
| 2/28/2015 | 14.6 | 3.4 | 27 | 5.6 |
| 3/31/2015 | 12.4 | 8.2 | 32 | 12.4 |
| 4/30/2015 | 19.1 | 4.3 | 38.3 | 13.8 |
| 5/31/2015 | 9.4 | 1 | 26 | 7.3 |
| 6/30/2015 | 9.6 | 1 | 24 | 5.8 |
| 7/31/2015 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 27.7 | 6.4 |
| 8/31/2015 | 7.3 | 0.9 | 34.5 | 10.9 |
| 9/30/2015 | 4.1 | -5.2 | 28.9 | 7.2 |
| 10/31/2015 | 0.9 | -8.5 | 27.4 | 7.5 |
| 11/30/2015 | 4.5 | -4.5 | 29.1 | 11.8 |
| 12/31/2015 | 4 | -4 | 27.3 | 20.2 |
| 1/31/2016 | 16 | 4 | 31 | 12 |
| 2/29/2016 | 3 | -5 | 14.9 | 4 |
| 3/31/2016 | 3 | -5.9 | 19.8 | 7.9 |
| 4/30/2016 | 19.2 | 2.9 | 27.9 | 5.8 |
| 5/31/2016 | 16.7 | -3.1 | 28.1 | 6.2 |
| 6/30/2016 | 18.4 | -1 | 29.6 | 7.1 |
| 7/31/2016 | 18.7 | 1.1 | 26.4 | 7.7 |
| 8/31/2016 | 15.5 | 2.1 | 25.8 | 9.3 |
| 9/30/2016 | 17 | 1.8 | 41.1 | 20.5 |
| 10/31/2016 | 22.6 | 4.7 | 35.8 | 30.2 |
| 11/30/2016 | 15.5 | 2.7 | 39.1 | 20.9 |
| 12/31/2016 | 22.6 | 3.5 | 42.6 | 22.6 |
| 1/31/2017 | 36.1 | 17.6 | 50.4 | 27.7 |
| 2/28/2017 | 37.8 | 19.4 | 38.8 | 25.5 |
| 3/31/2017 | 31 | 8.8 | 41.6 | 19.5 |
| 4/30/2017 | 32.8 | 12.4 | 37.2 | 25.5 |
| 5/31/2017 | 20.9 | 4.5 | 38.1 | 22.4 |
| 6/30/2017 | 20 | 10.8 | 33.1 | 13.8 |
| 7/31/2017 | 21.3 | 11 | 30.7 | 15.7 |
| 8/31/2017 | 31 | 6.2 | 33.3 | 21.7 |
| 9/30/2017 | 35.8 | 13.8 | 42.3 | 18.7 |
| 10/31/2017 | 27.3 | 7 | 41.4 | 25 |
| 11/30/2017 | 24.6 | 9.2 | 48.5 | 23.8 |
| 12/31/2017 | 29.7 | 11.6 | 50 | 27.5 |
| 1/31/2018 | 36.2 | 21.7 | 52.9 | 31.2 |
| 2/28/2018 | 48.6 | 21.5 | 52.1 | 25.7 |
| 3/31/2018 | 50.3 | 22.4 | 55.9 | 28 |
| 4/30/2018 | 47.4 | 20.7 | 54.8 | 31.1 |
| 5/31/2018 | 54 | 23 | 54 | 29.5 |
| 6/30/2018 | 52.7 | 23.3 | 51.2 | 27.1 |
| 7/31/2018 | 42.7 | 22.2 | 48.7 | 28.2 |
| 8/31/2018 | 45.2 | 20 | 53.3 | 26.7 |
| 9/30/2018 | 46.3 | 16.3 | 56.1 | 30.9 |
| 10/31/2018 | 42 | 14.3 | 52.9 | 23.5 |
| 11/30/2018 | 44.5 | 13.1 | 59.1 | 31.4 |
| 12/31/2018 | 39.7 | 12.8 | 51.9 | 27.6 |
| 1/31/2019 | 35.9 | 13.1 | 47.6 | 28.3 |
| 2/28/2019 | 27.1 | 22.9 | 37.1 | 30.7 |
| 3/31/2019 | 34.1 | 18.1 | 40.6 | 23.9 |
| 4/30/2019 | 27.3 | 14 | 37.1 | 16.1 |
| 5/31/2019 | 26.2 | 12.4 | 33.1 | 17.2 |
| 6/30/2019 | 27.8 | 6.8 | 36.8 | 12.8 |
| 7/31/2019 | 25.5 | 5.8 | 39.4 | 18.2 |
| 8/31/2019 | 23.2 | 4.5 | 38.1 | 12.9 |
| 9/30/2019 | 29.4 | 9.2 | 42.5 | 17 |
| 10/31/2019 | 23.1 | 6.3 | 42.5 | 21.3 |
| 11/30/2019 | 20.5 | 6.2 | 42.5 | 26 |
| 12/31/2019 | 15.2 | 4.3 | 39.1 | 29 |
| 1/31/2020 | 31.5 | 14.4 | 43.8 | 29.5 |
| 2/29/2020 | 25 | 16.7 | 37.9 | 22.7 |
| 3/31/2020 | 24.5 | 10.1 | 34.5 | 17.3 |
| 4/30/2020 | 5.8 | -8.4 | 14.9 | 0.6 |
| 5/31/2020 | 4.1 | -7.4 | 20.3 | 2 |
| 6/30/2020 | 16.9 | -0.6 | 25.6 | 7.5 |
| 7/31/2020 | 14.9 | -4.5 | 28.6 | 10.4 |
| 8/31/2020 | 16 | 4.7 | 22.7 | 9.3 |
| 9/30/2020 | 25.2 | 6.5 | 33.1 | 7.9 |
| 10/31/2020 | 27.8 | 5.3 | 39.1 | 16.6 |
| 11/30/2020 | 29.1 | 11.3 | 46.4 | 23.2 |
| 12/31/2020 | 37.1 | 10 | 48.6 | 30 |
| 1/31/2021 | 45.5 | 15.2 | 49 | 23.4 |
| 2/28/2021 | 57.8 | 23.4 | 55.8 | 32.5 |
| 3/31/2021 | 64.4 | 24.2 | 64.4 | 38.3 |
| 4/30/2021 | 74.7 | 34.9 | 71.2 | 45.2 |
| 5/31/2021 | 83.5 | 37.1 | 67.1 | 43.6 |
| 6/30/2021 | 79.8 | 33.3 | 64 | 45.6 |
| 7/31/2021 | 76.8 | 39.4 | 64.6 | 57.6 |
| 8/31/2021 | 76.1 | 46 | 66.4 | 52.2 |
| 9/30/2021 | 75.7 | 47.8 | 61.7 | 51.3 |
| 10/31/2021 | 78.7 | 43.5 | 67.6 | 50 |
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overview.html
Price indexes of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Outlook Survey are in Table IV-5A. As in inflation waves throughout the world (Section I and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/09/world-inflation-waves-high-inflation.html), indexes of both current and expectations of future prices paid and received were quite dynamic until May 2011. Prices paid, or inputs, were more dynamic, reflecting carry trades from zero interest rates to commodity futures. All indexes softened after May 2011 with even decline of prices received in Aug 2011 during the first round of risk aversion. Current and future price indexes have increased again but not back to the intensity in the beginning of 2011 because of risk aversion frustrating carry trades even induced by zero interest rates. The index of prices paid or prices of inputs moved from 21.1 in Dec 2012 to 70.3 in Oct 2021. The index of current prices received was minus 2.4 in Apr 2013, indicating decrease of prices received. The index of current prices received decreased from 9.1 in Dec 2012 to minus 5.2 in Sep 2015, decreasing to minus 3.6 in Feb 2016. The index of current prices received was 51.1 in Oct 2021. The index of current prices paid or costs of inputs at 70.3 in Oct 2021 indicates faster expansion than the index of current prices received or sales prices of production in Oct 2021, showing 51.1. Prices paid indicate faster expansion than prices received during most of the history of the index. The index of future prices paid moved to 64.1 in Oct 2021 from 41.8 in Dec 2012 while the index of future prices received moved from 21.7 in Dec 2012 to 58.8 in Oct 2021. Expectations are incorporating faster increases in prices of inputs or costs of production, 64.1 in Oct 2021, than of sales prices of goods, 58.8 in Oct 2021, forcing companies to manage tightly costs and labor inputs. Volatility of margins of sales/costs discourages investment and hiring.
Table IV-5A, US, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey, Current and Future Prices Paid and Prices Received, SA
| Current Prices Paid | Current Prices Received | Future Prices Paid | Future Prices Received | |
| Dec-10 | 42.7 | 5.3 | 56.3 | 24.2 |
| Jan-11 | 48.2 | 12.6 | 58.8 | 34.5 |
| Feb-11 | 61.5 | 13.7 | 68.2 | 31.6 |
| Mar-11 | 59.2 | 17.9 | 61.6 | 33.5 |
| Apr-11 | 52.7 | 22.9 | 56.5 | 36.4 |
| May-11 | 51.2 | 20.6 | 54.9 | 28.5 |
| Jun-11 | 36 | 6.1 | 40.8 | 6.9 |
| Jul-11 | 34.1 | 5.7 | 48.3 | 17.2 |
| Aug-11 | 23.5 | -3.2 | 42.7 | 22.9 |
| Sep-11 | 30.1 | 6.4 | 38.3 | 20.5 |
| Oct-11 | 22.7 | 1.7 | 41.4 | 27.4 |
| Nov-11 | 21.8 | 5.2 | 34.4 | 26.3 |
| Dec-11 | 25 | 5.6 | 42.7 | 21.1 |
| Jan-12 | 26.1 | 9.3 | 47.9 | 21.7 |
| Feb-12 | 33.5 | 10.5 | 51.1 | 26.4 |
| Mar-12 | 17.4 | 6.9 | 38.7 | 24.8 |
| Apr-12 | 21.8 | 9.6 | 37.3 | 25.2 |
| May-12 | 10.1 | 1.1 | 40.4 | 9.3 |
| Jun-12 | 1.1 | -6.4 | 32.9 | 16.9 |
| Jul-12 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 27.3 | 20.4 |
| Aug-12 | 16.2 | 6.9 | 35 | 24 |
| Sep-12 | 13 | 2.8 | 38.3 | 24.8 |
| Oct-12 | 17.4 | 4.8 | 44.2 | 14.5 |
| Nov-12 | 22.2 | 4.8 | 45.7 | 10.7 |
| Dec-12 | 21.1 | 9.1 | 41.8 | 21.7 |
| Jan-13 | 13 | 0.9 | 35 | 21.6 |
| Feb-13 | 13 | 0.3 | 34.9 | 23.2 |
| Mar-13 | 13.4 | 1 | 35.2 | 20.4 |
| Apr-13 | 11.5 | -2.4 | 31.9 | 16.8 |
| May-13 | 12.5 | 0.3 | 35.4 | 19.5 |
| Jun-13 | 16.8 | 11.2 | 29.6 | 24.2 |
| Jul-13 | 19.1 | 5.6 | 40.2 | 24.7 |
| Aug-13 | 17.8 | 12.8 | 34.1 | 23.4 |
| Sep-13 | 22.3 | 11.8 | 37.3 | 27.2 |
| Oct-13 | 17.9 | 9.2 | 41.5 | 33.7 |
| Nov-13 | 23.5 | 6.7 | 40.7 | 36.2 |
| Dec-13 | 17.5 | 9.2 | 39.9 | 28.1 |
| Jan-14 | 20 | 8.4 | 37.5 | 13.6 |
| Feb-14 | 16.4 | 10.3 | 28.7 | 19.8 |
| Mar-14 | 21.3 | 6.8 | 33.1 | 20.3 |
| Apr-14 | 20.8 | 10 | 39.9 | 21.5 |
| May-14 | 26.6 | 17 | 39.2 | 29.8 |
| Jun-14 | 25.7 | 9.3 | 42.3 | 30 |
| Jul-14 | 30.7 | 14.2 | 36.5 | 21.7 |
| Aug-14 | 21.9 | 6.2 | 44.9 | 28.4 |
| Sep-14 | 21.7 | 7.8 | 39.1 | 25.7 |
| Oct-14 | 24.4 | 17.4 | 30.8 | 20.7 |
| Nov-14 | 14.4 | 8.9 | 32.3 | 18 |
| Dec-14 | 16 | 12.3 | 24.9 | 19.6 |
| Jan-15 | 11.8 | 2.1 | 30.7 | 20.8 |
| Feb-15 | 6 | 3.4 | 34.3 | 22.5 |
| Mar-15 | 1.5 | -5.6 | 29.2 | 9.2 |
| Apr-15 | 0.5 | -3.5 | 22.1 | 14.5 |
| May-15 | -14.1 | -7.7 | 24.2 | 20.7 |
| Jun-15 | 9.2 | -0.3 | 39.1 | 12.4 |
| Jul-15 | 17.8 | 0.8 | 33.8 | 16.2 |
| Aug-15 | 3.8 | -3.2 | 35 | 8.9 |
| Sep-15 | -2.8 | -5.2 | 25.6 | 4.6 |
| Oct-15 | -0.4 | -0.4 | 17.1 | 7.5 |
| Nov-15 | -6.9 | -1.5 | 22.6 | 9.3 |
| Dec-15 | -7.7 | -4.5 | 23.3 | 13 |
| Jan-16 | -1.7 | -3.9 | 19.8 | 11.6 |
| Feb-16 | -2.9 | -3.6 | 12.7 | 4.7 |
| Mar-16 | -0.9 | 1.3 | 22.4 | 13.5 |
| Apr-16 | 11.5 | 3.7 | 38.5 | 23.1 |
| May-16 | 13.5 | 10.4 | 25.7 | 15.1 |
| Jun-16 | 20.3 | 2 | 36.5 | 18.3 |
| Jul-16 | 13.4 | 2.2 | 28.6 | 22.7 |
| Aug-16 | 20.5 | 7.1 | 32 | 13.8 |
| Sep-16 | 20.5 | 9.9 | 41 | 31.6 |
| Oct-16 | 10.5 | -0.9 | 40.3 | 26.6 |
| Nov-16 | 27.5 | 19.5 | 37 | 28.3 |
| Dec-16 | 29.6 | 11.1 | 42.9 | 27.7 |
| Jan-17 | 32.4 | 24.4 | 49.1 | 28.2 |
| Feb-17 | 30.5 | 11.9 | 47.1 | 24.9 |
| Mar-17 | 40.5 | 18.7 | 52.5 | 37.7 |
| Apr-17 | 30.6 | 13.7 | 38.8 | 30.5 |
| May-17 | 24.5 | 13.1 | 43.9 | 26.8 |
| Jun-17 | 23.4 | 18.9 | 43.7 | 30.1 |
| Jul-17 | 20.2 | 10 | 48.6 | 30.2 |
| Aug-17 | 23.5 | 13.7 | 37.6 | 37.9 |
| Sep-17 | 33.8 | 23.4 | 47.7 | 32.1 |
| Oct-17 | 40.2 | 15.7 | 58.4 | 39.4 |
| Nov-17 | 38.9 | 12.4 | 52.5 | 41.6 |
| Dec-17 | 26.2 | 14.7 | 53.2 | 38.3 |
| Jan-18 | 34.1 | 23.7 | 56.2 | 45.3 |
| Feb-18 | 46.5 | 23.7 | 64.6 | 49.5 |
| Mar-18 | 43.7 | 20.8 | 61.2 | 49.6 |
| Apr-18 | 53.5 | 28.1 | 70.4 | 49.2 |
| May-18 | 50.8 | 33.6 | 61.8 | 36.7 |
| Jun-18 | 51 | 33.4 | 64.3 | 56.8 |
| Jul-18 | 59.1 | 36 | 60.7 | 50.4 |
| Aug-18 | 57 | 32.3 | 60.4 | 59.1 |
| Sep-18 | 39.5 | 21.3 | 49.6 | 42.5 |
| Oct-18 | 40.5 | 25.6 | 54.6 | 51.1 |
| Nov-18 | 41.7 | 25.3 | 57.8 | 57.2 |
| Dec-18 | 36.3 | 28.3 | 56.7 | 44 |
| Jan-19 | 32.2 | 24.8 | 41.5 | 34.9 |
| Feb-19 | 23.8 | 26.5 | 41.1 | 30.8 |
| Mar-19 | 21.7 | 24.5 | 48.1 | 32.6 |
| Apr-19 | 22.2 | 20.2 | 32.7 | 28.1 |
| May-19 | 23 | 17.6 | 42 | 38.7 |
| Jun-19 | 13.7 | 2.7 | 32.9 | 26.6 |
| Jul-19 | 16.4 | 11.2 | 36.1 | 33.5 |
| Aug-19 | 14.7 | 13.5 | 38.9 | 28.7 |
| Sep-19 | 29.7 | 19.7 | 44.9 | 33.8 |
| Oct-19 | 15 | 15.4 | 34.8 | 29.8 |
| Nov-19 | 8.5 | 12 | 40.2 | 36.1 |
| Dec-19 | 15.9 | 11 | 46 | 45.1 |
| Jan-20 | 22.1 | 14.7 | 41.9 | 34 |
| Feb-20 | 16.4 | 17.1 | 32.2 | 37.9 |
| Mar-20 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 18.5 | 21.5 |
| Apr-20 | -9.3 | -10.6 | 25.5 | 16.9 |
| May-20 | 3.2 | -3.1 | 21.2 | 15.6 |
| Jun-20 | 11.1 | 11 | 44.3 | 28.9 |
| Jul-20 | 15.7 | 11.5 | 43 | 24.7 |
| Aug-20 | 15.3 | 12.4 | 37.7 | 30.2 |
| Sep-20 | 25.1 | 18.4 | 57.7 | 42.4 |
| Oct-20 | 28.5 | 14 | 42.3 | 41 |
| Nov-20 | 38.9 | 25.4 | 49.4 | 37.2 |
| Dec-20 | 27.1 | 18 | 46.6 | 35.5 |
| Jan-21 | 47.4 | 36.3 | 44.1 | 36 |
| Feb-21 | 55.2 | 18.2 | 51.8 | 41.8 |
| Mar-21 | 72.6 | 30.2 | 63.4 | 46.9 |
| Apr-21 | 69.1 | 34.5 | 71.5 | 63.6 |
| May-21 | 76.8 | 41 | 66.7 | 58.4 |
| Jun-21 | 80.7 | 49.7 | 71.1 | 67.8 |
| Jul-21 | 69.7 | 46.8 | 63 | 56.5 |
| Aug-21 | 71.2 | 53.9 | 54.6 | 70.1 |
| Sep-21 | 67.3 | 52.9 | 53.5 | 62.2 |
| Oct-21 | 70.3 | 51.1 | 64.1 | 58.8 |
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org
Chart IV-1 of the Business Outlook Survey of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Outlook Survey provides the diffusion index of current prices paid or prices of inputs from 2015 to 2021. In the middle of deep global contraction after IVQ2007, input prices continued to increase in speculative carry trades from central bank policy rates falling toward zero into commodities futures. The index peaked above 70 in the second half of 2008. Inflation of inputs moderated significantly during the shock of risk aversion in late 2008, even falling briefly into contraction territory below zero during several months in 2009 in the flight away from risk financial assets into US government securities (Cochrane and Zingales 2009) that unwound carry trades. Return of risk appetite induced carry trade with significant increase until return of risk aversion in the first round of the European sovereign debt crisis in Apr 2010. Carry trades returned during risk appetite in expectation that the European sovereign debt crisis was resolved. The various inflation waves originating in carry trades induced by zero interest rates with alternating episodes of risk aversion are mirrored in the prices of inputs after 2011, in particular after Aug 2012 with the announcement of the Outright Monetary Transactions Program of the European Central Bank (http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/date/2012/html/pr120906_1.en.html). Subsequent risk aversion and flows of capital away from commodities into stocks and high-yield bonds caused sharp decline in the index of prices paid followed by another recent rebound with marginal decline and new increase. The index falls, rebounds and falls again in the final segment but there are no episodes of contraction after 2009 with exception of minus 14.1 in May 2015, minus 2.8 in Sep 2015, minus 0.4 in Oct 2015, minus 6.9 in Nov 2015 and minus 7.7 in Dec 2015. The reading for the index in Jan 2016 is minus 1.7 and minus 2.9 for Feb 2016. The index is minus 0.9 in Mar 2016 and 11.5 in Apr 2016, increasing at 13.5 in May 2016 and 20.3 in Jun 2016. The index reached 13.4 in Jul 2016, 20.5 in Aug 2016 and 20.5 in Sep 2016. The index was 10.5 in Oct 2016 and 70.3 in Oct 2021.
Chart IV-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices Paid Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
Chart IV-2 of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Outlook Survey provides the diffusion index of current prices received from 2015 to 2021. The significant difference between the index of current prices paid in Chart IV-1 and the index of current prices received in Chart IV-2 is that increases in prices paid are significantly sharper than increases in prices received. There were several periods of negative readings of prices received from 2010 to 2016. Prices paid increased at 1.5 in Mar 2015 while prices received contracted at 5.6. There were several contractions of prices paid: 7.7 in May 2015 for prices received with faster contraction of 14.1 of prices paid; minus 2.8 for prices paid in Sep 2015 with minus 5.2 for prices received; and minus 0.4 for prices paid in Oct 2015 with minus 0.4 for prices received. The index of prices received fell to minus 1.5 in Nov 2015 with minus 6.9 for prices paid and to minus 4.5 in Dec 2015 with minus 7.7 for prices paid. The index of prices received fell to minus 3.6 in Feb 2016 with minus 2.9 for prices paid. The index of prices paid decreased at 0.9 in Mar 2016 with increase at 1.3 for prices received. Prices paid moved to 70.3 in Oct 2021 while prices received moved to 51.1. Prices received relative to prices paid deteriorate most of the time largely because of the carry trades from zero interest rates to commodity futures. Profit margins of business are compressed intermittently by fluctuations of commodity prices induced by unconventional monetary policy of zero interest rates, frustrating production, investment and hiring decisions of business, which is precisely the opposite outcome pursued by unconventional monetary policy.
Chart IV-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
Chart IV-2A of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia shows current prices paid and current prices received from Jan 2007 to Mar 2017. Current prices paid jumped ahead of current prices received during the contraction from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009 through the carry trade from zero interest rates to exposures in commodity derivatives. There is the same behavior during most of the cyclical expansion after IIIQ2009. Rebalancing of financial investment portfolios away from commodities into equities explains the recent weakness of prices paid. There is a new ongoing carry trade into commodity futures.
Chart IV-2A, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices Paid and Current Prices Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
Chart IV-2B of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia shows Current and Future Prices Received of the Business Outlook Survey from 2007 to Jun 2017. There is correlation in the direction of the indexes. The six-month forecast is typically above current prices received. There is upward trend in both indexes in the final segment with wide fluctuations.
Chart IV-2B, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices Received and Future Prices Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
Chart IV-2C of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia shows Current and Future Prices Received of the Business Outlook Survey from 2007 to Jul 2017. There is correlation in the direction of the indexes. The six-month forecast is typically above current prices received. There is upward trend in both indexes in the final segment with wide fluctuations.
Chart IV-2c, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current and Future Prices Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
Chart IV-2D of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia shows Current Prices Paid and Current Prices Received of the Business Outlook Survey from 2007 to Sep 2017. Current prices paid are typically above prices received.
Chart IV-2d, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices Paid and Current Prices Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
Chart IV-2DE of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia shows Current Prices Paid and Current Prices Received of the Business Outlook Survey from 2007 to Oct 2017. Current prices paid are typically above prices received.
Chart IV-2de, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices Paid and Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
Chart IV-2DEf of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia shows current prices paid and received of the Business Outlook Survey from 2007 to Dec 2017.Current prices paid are mostly above current prices received. There is upward trend in both indexes in the final segment with wide fluctuations.
Chart IV-2DEf, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices and Future Prices Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
Chart IV-2Def1 of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia shows current prices paid and received of the Business Outlook Survey from 2007 to Jan 2018. There is correlation in the direction of the indexes. The six-month forecast is typically above current prices received. There is upward trend in both indexes in the final segment with wide fluctuations.
Chart IV-2dEf1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices and Future Prices Paid Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
Chart IV-2Def2 of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia shows current prices paid and received of the Business Outlook Survey from 2007 to Feb 2018. There is correlation in the direction of the indexes. Prices paid are typically above prices received.
Chart IV-2df2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices Piad and Future Prices Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
Chart IV-2DEF3 of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook survey provides current prices paid and received from 2007 to Mar 2018 with prices paid typically above prices received. The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia states: “Price increases for purchased inputs were reported by 44 percent of the manufacturers this month. The prices paid diffusion index fell 2 points to 42.6 but remains near last month’s reading, which was the highest since 2011 (see Chart 2). The current prices received index, reflecting the manufacturers own prices, declined 3 points to a reading of 20.7” (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2018/bos0318).
Chart IV-2dEf3, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices Paid and Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
Chart IV-2DEF4 of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook survey provides current prices paid and received from 2007 to Apr 2018 with prices paid typically above prices received. The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia states: “Price increases for purchased inputs were reported by 59 percent of the manufacturers this month, up notably from 44 percent in March. The prices paid diffusion index increased 14 points to the highest reading since Mar 2011 (see Chart 2). The current prices received index, reflecting the manufacturers own prices, increased 9 points to a reading of 29.8, its highest reading since May 2008” (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2018/bos0418).
Chart IV-2dEf4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices Paid and Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
Chart IV-2DEF5 of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook survey provides current prices paid and received from 2007 to May 2018 with prices paid typically above prices received. The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia states: “Price increases for purchased inputs were reported by 55 percent of the manufacturers this month, down slightly from 59 percent in April. The prices paid diffusion index fell 4 points but remains at an elevated level (see Chart 2). The current prices received index, reflecting the manufacturers’ own prices, increased 7 points to a reading of 36.4, its second consecutive month of increase and highest reading since February 1989.” (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2018/bos0518).
Chart IV-2dEf5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices Paid and Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
Chart IV-2DEF5 of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook survey provides current prices paid and received from 2007 to Jun 2018 with prices paid typically above prices received. The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia states: “The firms continued to report higher prices for both purchased inputs and their own manufactured goods, although the survey’s price indicators fell modestly from their May readings. Price increases for purchased inputs were reported by 54 percent of the manufacturers this month, but the prices paid diffusion index edged 1 point lower (see Chart 2). The current prices received index, reflecting the manufacturers’ own prices, decreased 3 points but remains at a high reading of 33.2. Nearly 34 percent of the firms reported higher prices for their manufactured goods.” (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2018/bos0618).
Chart IV-2dEf5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices Paid and Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
Chart IV-2DEF5 of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook survey provides current prices paid and received from 2007 to Jul 2018 with prices paid typically above prices received. The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia states: “The manufacturers continued to report higher prices for both purchased inputs and their own manufactured goods. Price increases for purchased inputs were reported by 63 percent of the manufacturers this month, up from 54 percent last month. The index has now risen 30 points since January (see Chart 2). The current prices received index, reflecting the manufacturers’ own prices, increased 3 points. Over 36 percent of the firms reported higher prices for their manufactured goods this month.” (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2018/bos0718).
Chart IV-2dEf6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices Paid and Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for Aug 2018 states (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2018/bos0818): “The survey’s current price measures moderated slightly but remain elevated, indicating that price increases for both purchased inputs and the firms’ own manufactured goods remain widespread. The prices paid index fell 8 points. Price increases for purchased inputs were reported by 63 percent of the manufacturers this month. Nearly 35 percent of the firms reported higher prices for their own manufactured goods this month, although the prices received index fell 3 points. In this month’s special questions, the firms were asked to forecast the changes in the prices of their own products and for U.S. consumers over the next four quarters. Regarding their own prices, the firms’ median forecast was for an increase of 3.0 percent, the same as when the same question was last asked in May. The firms expect their employee compensation costs (wages plus benefits on a per employee basis) to rise 3.0 percent over the next four quarters, the same as the previous forecast. When asked about the rate of inflation for U.S. consumers over the next year, the firms’ median forecast was 3.0 percent, slightly higher than the 2.5 percent projected in the previous survey. The firms’ forecast for the long-run (10-year average) inflation rate was also 3.0 percent.”
The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for Sep 2018 states (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2018/bos0918): “The survey’s diffusion indexes for prices remained positive but decreased from their readings in August (see Chart 2). On the cost side, 44 percent of the firms reported increases in the prices paid for inputs, down from 63 percent in August, and the prices paid index decreased 15 points to 39.6. With respect to prices received for firms’ own manufactured goods, 25 percent of the firms reported higher prices compared with 35 percent last month. The prices received index decreased 14 points.”
Chart IV-2dEf6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices Paid and Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for Oct 2018 states (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2018/bos1018): “The survey’s diffusion indexes for prices remained positive but lower than their readings for most of this year (see Chart 2). On the cost side, 42 percent of the firms reported increases in the prices paid for inputs, and the prices paid index, which had fallen 15 points last month, decreased 1 point to 38.2. With respect to prices received for firms’ own manufactured goods, 27 percent of the firms reported higher prices compared with 3 percent that reported decreases. The prices received index increased 5 points.”
Chart IV-2Oct18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices Paid and Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for Nov 2018 states (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2018/bos1118): “The survey’s diffusion indexes for prices remained positive but lower than their readings for most of this year (see Chart 2). With respect to prices received for firms’ own manufactured goods, 24 percent of the firms reported higher prices compared with 2 percent that reported decreases. The prices received index decreased 2 points. On the cost side, 41 percent of the firms reported increases in the prices paid for inputs. The prices paid index edged up 1 point but remains 24 points lower than its peak in July.”
Chart IV-2Nov18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices Paid and Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for Dec 2018 states (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2018/bos1218): “The survey’s diffusion indexes for prices remained positive, suggesting continued increases in firms’ input prices and the prices for their own manufactured goods. On the cost side, 42 percent of the firms reported increases in the prices paid for inputs. The prices paid index edged down 1 point and remains 25 points below its peak in July (see Chart 2). The prices received index increased 4 points to 26.2, its highest reading in four months, but 10 points below its peak in May.”
Chart IV-2Dec18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices Paid and Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for Jan 2019 states (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2019/bos0119): “The survey’s diffusion indexes for prices remained positive but decreased from their readings in December. On the cost side, the prices paid index decreased 6 points to 32.7. The index has been trending down since last July and is at its lowest reading in 13 months (see Chart 2). With respect to prices received for firms’ own manufactured goods, 29 percent of the firms reported higher prices, and 4 percent reported lower prices. The prices received index decreased 4 points to 24.8.”
Chart IV-2Jan19, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices Paid and Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for Feb 2019 states (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2019/bos0219): “Price pressures originating from purchased inputs continued to abate. The prices paid index decreased 11 points to 21.8. The index has been trending down since last July and is now at its lowest reading since July 2017 (see Chart 2). Over 28 percent of the firms reported higher input prices this month, down from 40 percent last month. With respect to prices received for firms’ own manufactured goods, almost 33 percent of the firms reported higher prices, and 5 percent reported lower prices. The prices received index increased 3 points to 27.7.”
Chart IV-2Feb19, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices Paid and Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for Mar 2019 states (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2019/bos0319): “Price pressures arising from purchased inputs continued to ease. The prices paid index decreased 2 points to 19.7. The prices paid index declined for the eighth consecutive month and is at its lowest reading since July 2017 (see Chart 2). Nearly 24 percent of the firms reported higher input prices this month, down from 28 percent last month. With respect to prices received for firms’ own manufactured goods, 26 percent of the firms reported higher prices, down from 33 percent last month. The prices received index decreased 3 points to 24.7.”
Chart IV-2Mar19, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices Paid and Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for Apr 2019 states (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2019/bos0419): “With respect to prices received for firms’ own manufactured goods, the prices received index decreased 5 points to 20.0, its lowest reading since December 2017. Nearly 23 percent of the firms reported higher prices, down from 26 percent last month. The prices paid index increased 2 points to 21.6, its first increase in 9 months (see Chart 2). Over 26 percent of the firms reported higher input prices this month, while 5 percent reported lower input prices.”
Chart IV-2Apr19, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices Paid and Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for May 2019 states (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2019/bos0519): “In this month’s special questions, the firms were asked to forecast the changes in the prices of their own products and for U.S. consumers over the next four quarters. Regarding their own prices, the firms’ median forecast was for an increase of 2.8 percent, about the same as when the question was last asked in February. The firms expect their employee compensation costs (wages plus benefits on a per employee basis) to rise 3.0 percent over the next four quarters, the same as the previous forecast. When asked about the rate of inflation for U.S. consumers over the next year, the firms’ median forecast was 2.5 percent, an increase from 2.3 percent in the previous quarter. The firms’ median forecast for the long-run (10-year average) inflation rate remained steady at 2.5 percent.”
The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for Jun 2019 states (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2019/bos0619): “The current prices received index, reflecting the manufacturers’ own prices, declined nearly 17 points to a reading of 0.6, its lowest reading since October 2016 (see Chart 2). Price increases for manufacturers’ own goods were reported by 10 percent of the firms this month, down from 23 percent last month. Price increases for purchased inputs were reported by 28 percent of the manufacturers this month, and the prices paid diffusion index decreased 10 points to 12.9, also its lowest reading since October 2016.”
Chart IV-2Jun19, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices Paid and Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for Jul 2019 states (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2019/bos0719): “The prices paid and prices received indexes both increased this month but remained well below their readings over the past few years. The current prices received index, reflecting the manufacturers’ own prices, increased 9 points to a reading of 9.5. Price increases for manufacturers’ own goods were reported by 16 percent of the firms this month, up from 10 percent last month. Price increases for purchased inputs were reported by 29 percent of the manufacturers this month, but 13 percent reported price decreases. The prices paid diffusion index increased 3 points to 16.1.”
The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for Aug 2019 states (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2019/bos0819): “The firms continued to report increases in the prices paid for inputs. The percentage of firms reporting increases in input prices (25 percent) remained higher than the percentage reporting decreases (12 percent). The prices paid diffusion index decreased 3 points and remains well below readings over the past two and a half years. The current prices received index, reflecting the manufacturers’ own prices, increased 4 points to a reading of 13.0 but is also still well below readings of the past few years.”
The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for Sep 2019 states (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2019/bos0919): Price increases were more widespread this month. On the cost side, nearly 38 percent of the firms reported increases in the prices paid for inputs this month, up from 25 percent in August. The prices paid index increased 20 points to 33.0, its highest reading since December 2018 (see Chart 2). With respect to prices received for firms’ own manufactured goods, 26 percent of the firms reported higher prices, up from 16 percent in August. The diffusion index for prices received increased 8 points to 20.8, its highest reading since March.
Chart IV-2Sep19, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices Paid and Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for Oct 2019 states (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2019/bos1019): “The firms continued to report overall increases in the prices paid for inputs, but the prices paid index fell 16 points to 16.8. Nearly 24 percent of the respondents reported higher input prices, down from 38 percent in September (see Chart 2). The current prices received index, reflecting the manufacturers’ own prices, decreased 4 points to a reading of 16.4.”
Chart IV-2Oct19, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices Paid and Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for Nov 2019 states (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2019/bos1119): “The firms continued to report overall increases in prices paid for inputs and received for goods, but the indicators for both measures declined for the second consecutive month. The prices paid diffusion index decreased 9 points to 7.8, its lowest level since March 2016. The percentage of firms reporting increases in input prices (17 percent) remained higher than the percentage reporting decreases (9 percent). The current prices received index, reflecting the manufacturers’ own prices, decreased 4 points to a reading of 12.2.”
The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for Dec 2019 states (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2019/bos1219): “The firms continued to report overall increases in the prices paid for inputs, with the index rising 11 points to 19.0 (see Chart 2). Over 25 percent of the respondents reported higher input prices, up from 17 percent in November. The current prices received index, reflecting the manufacturers’ own prices, ticked down to a reading of 11.9. Over 80 percent of the firms reported no change in their own product prices this month.”
Chart IV-2Dec19, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices Paid and Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for Jan 2020 states (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2020/bos0120): “The firms continued to report overall increases in the prices paid for inputs, with the index rising 6 points to 22.1 (see Chart 2). Nearly 27 percent of the respondents reported higher input prices; only 5 percent reported lower input prices. The largest percentage of the firms (68 percent) reported steady input prices. The current prices received index, reflecting the manufacturers’ own prices, increased 4 points to 14.7. More than 18 percent reported higher prices for their manufactured products, 3 percent reported lower prices, and over 78 percent reported no change in their prices.”
Chart IV-2Jan2020, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices Paid and Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for Feb 2020 states (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2020/bos0220): “The firms continued to report overall increases in prices paid for inputs and received for goods. The prices paid diffusion index decreased 6 points to 16.4. The percentage of firms reporting increases in input prices (23 percent) remained higher than the percentage reporting decreases (7 percent). The current prices received index, reflecting the manufacturers’ own prices, edged up 2 points to a reading of 17.1.”
The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for Mar 20, 2020 states (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2020/bos0320): “The firms reported moderating price pressures for inputs and for their own manufactured goods. The prices paid diffusion index decreased 12 points to 4.8 (see Chart 2). The percentage of firms reporting increases in input prices (18 percent) was only slightly higher than the percentage reporting decreases (14 percent). The current prices received index, reflecting the manufacturers’ own prices, declined 10 points to a reading of 6.8.”
Chart IV-2Mar2020, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices Paid and Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for Apr 2020 states (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2020/bos0420): “The firms reported overall negative price movements for inputs and for their own manufactured goods. The prices paid diffusion index decreased 14 points to -9.3, its lowest reading since May 2015 (see Chart 2). While most firms reported stable input prices (70 percent), the percentage of firms reporting decreases in input prices (18 percent) was higher than the percentage reporting increases (9 percent). The current prices received index, reflecting the manufacturers’ own prices, declined 17 points to a reading of -10.6, its lowest since July 2009.”
Chart IV-2Apr2020, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices Paid and Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for May 2020 states (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2020/bos0520): “The prices paid diffusion index increased 13 points to 3.2. The percentage of firms reporting increases in input prices (16 percent) was higher than the percentage reporting decreases (13 percent). The current prices received index rose 8 points to a reading of -3.1, its second consecutive negative reading.”
The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for Jun 2020 states (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2020/bos0620): “The diffusion index for current general activity increased from -43.1 in May to 27.5 this month, its first positive reading since February (see Chart 1). Forty-six percent of the firms reported increases this month (up from 15 percent last month), while 19 percent reported decreases (down from 58 percent). The indexes for current shipments and new orders also rose and returned to positive readings this month: The current new orders index increased 42 points to 16.7, while the shipments index rose 56 points to 25.3.”
Chart IV-2Jun2020, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices Paid and Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for Jul 2020 states (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2020/bos0720): “The prices paid diffusion index increased 5 points to 15.7 (see Chart 2). Nearly 16 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, and none reported decreases; most firms (84 percent) reported no change. The current prices received index, reflecting manufacturers’ own prices, held steady at 11.5.”
Chart IV-2Jul2020, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices Paid and Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for Aug 2020 states (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2020/bos0820): “The survey’s price indicators remained positive and were little changed this month. The prices paid diffusion index was essentially unchanged at 15.3. More than 21 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, and 6 percent reported decreases; most firms (73 percent) reported no change. The current prices received index, reflecting manufacturers’ own prices, increased 1 point to 12.4. Over 16 percent of the firms reported increases in prices of their own manufactured goods, and 4 percent reported decreases; most firms (80 percent) reported no change.”
The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for Sep 2020 states (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2020/bos0920): “The survey’s price indicators remained positive and increased this month (see Chart 2). The prices paid diffusion index increased 10 points to 25.1. Nearly 29 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, and 4 percent reported decreases; most firms (68 percent) reported no change. The current prices received index, reflecting manufacturers’ own prices, increased 6 points to 18.4. Over 22 percent of the firms reported increases in prices of their own manufactured goods, up from 16 percent in August.”
Chart IV-2Sep2020, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices Paid and Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
Chart IV-2Sep2020, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices Paid and Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for Oct 2020 states (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2020/bos1020): “The survey’s price indicators suggest modest price pressure. The prices paid diffusion index increased 3 points to 28.5. Nearly 29 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, and none reported decreases; most firms (72 percent) reported no change. The current prices received index, reflecting manufacturers’ own prices, decreased 4 points to 14.0. Just 14 percent of the firms reported increases in prices of their own manufactured goods, while 86 percent reported no change in prices.”
The Business Outlook Survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for Nov 2020 states (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/mbos-2020-11): “Price increases were more widespread this month. The prices paid diffusion index increased 10 points to 38.9. Nearly 39 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, compared with 29 percent last month; most firms (59 percent) reported no change. The current prices received index, reflecting manufacturers’ own prices, increased 11 points to 25.4. Over 26 percent of the firms reported increases in prices of their own manufactured goods, compared with 14 percent in October.”
The Business Outlook Survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for Dec 2020 states (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/mbos-2020-12): “Price increases were less widespread this month. The prices paid diffusion index decreased 12 points to 27.1. Over 29 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, compared with 39 percent last month; most firms (63 percent) reported no change. The current prices received index, reflecting manufacturers’ own prices, decreased 7 points to 18.0. Over 20 percent of the firms reported increases in prices of their own manufactured goods, while 2 percent reported declines. The largest percentage of firms (75 percent) reported no change in prices for their manufactured goods.”
The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for Jan 2021 states: (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/mbos-2021-01): “Price increases were more widely reported this month. The prices paid diffusion index increased 21 points to 45.4 (see Chart 2). Over 47 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, while only 2 percent reported decreases. The current prices received index, reflecting manufacturers’ own prices, also increased 21 points to 36.6. Over 38 percent of the firms reported increases in prices of their own manufactured goods, while 2 percent reported declines. The largest percentage of firms (60 percent) reported no change in prices for their manufactured goods.”
Chart IV-2Jan2021, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices Paid and Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for Feb 2021 states: (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/mbos-2021-02): “Price increases were more widespread this month for inputs but less widespread for firms’ own goods. The prices paid diffusion index increased 9 points to 54.4. Nearly 55 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, compared with 47 percent last month. More than 45 percent of the firms reported no change. The current prices received index, reflecting manufacturers’ own prices, decreased 20 points to 16.7. Nearly 18 percent of the firms reported increases in prices of their own manufactured goods, compared with 38 percent in January; most firms (80 percent) reported stable output prices.”
The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for Mar 2021 states: (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/mbos-2021-03): “Price Increases Are More Widespread. The firms continued to report price pressures from purchased inputs. The prices paid index rose sharply from 54.4 to 75.9, its highest reading since March 1980 (see Chart 2). Over 77 percent of the firms reported higher input prices this month, up from 55 percent last month. With respect to prices received for firms’ own manufactured goods, 35 percent of the firms reported higher prices, up from 18 percent last month. The prices received index increased 15 points to 31.8.”
Chart IV-2Mar2021, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices Paid and Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for Apr 2021 states: (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/mbos-2021-04): “The firms continued to report price pressures from purchased inputs. The prices paid index edged down 4 points to 69.1 in April after reaching a 40-year high in March (see Chart 2). Over 71 percent of the firms reported higher input prices this month, while only 2 percent of the firms reported lower input prices. The firms also reported overall increases in prices for their own manufactured goods: The prices received index increased 4 points to 34.5.”
Chart IV-2Apr2021, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices Paid and Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for May 2021 states: (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/mbos-2021-05): “Price increases were more widespread this month for the firms’ inputs and own goods. The prices paid diffusion index increased 8 points to 76.8, its highest reading since March 1980. Nearly 77 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, while none reported decreases. The current prices received index increased 7 points to 41.0, its highest reading since May 1981. Nearly 43 percent of the firms reported increases in prices of their own manufactured goods, up from 36 percent in April; most firms (55 percent) reported stable output prices.”
The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for Jun 2021 states (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/mbos-2021-06): “The prices paid diffusion index rose for the second consecutive month, 4 points to 80.7, its highest reading since June 1979 (see Chart 2). The percentage of firms reporting increases in input prices (82 percent) was higher than the percentage reporting decreases (1 percent). The current prices received index rose for the fourth consecutive month, moving up 9 points to 49.7, its highest reading since October 1980. Over 51 percent of the firms reported increases in prices received this month (up from 43 percent last month), while only 2 percent reported decreases (the same as last month).”
Chart IV-2AJun2021, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices Paid and Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for Jul 2021 states (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/mbos-2021-07): “The firms continued to report price pressures; however, both price indexes declined this month. The prices paid index decreased 11 points to 69.7 in July after reaching a 42-year high in June (see Chart 2). Over 72 percent of the firms reported higher input prices this month (down from 82 percent last month), while only 2 percent of the firms reported lower input prices (up from 1 percent). The firms also reported overall increases in prices for their own manufactured goods: The prices received index decreased 3 points to 46.8.”
Chart IV-2AJul2021, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices Paid and Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for Aug 2021 states (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/mbos-2021-08):
“The firms continued to report increases in prices for inputs and their own goods. The prices paid diffusion index edged up 2 points to 71.2, after falling 10 points last month from June’s 42-year high. Nearly 74 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, while 3 percent reported decreases. The current prices received index increased 7 points to 53.9, its highest reading since May 1974. Over 56 percent of the firms reported increases in prices of their own manufactured goods, up from 50 percent in July; 40 percent of the firms reported stable output prices.”
The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for Sep 2021 states (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/mbos-2021-09):
“The indicators for prices paid and prices received remained elevated but posted small declines this month. The prices paid index declined 4 points to 67.3 (see Chart 2). The percentage of firms reporting increases in input prices (71 percent) far exceeded the percentage reporting decreases (4 percent); 23 percent of the firms reported no change. The current prices received index ticked down 1 point to 52.9. Nearly 55 percent of the firms reported increases in prices received for their own goods this month, 2 percent reported decreases, and 42 percent reported no change. “
Chart IV-2ASep2021, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices Paid and Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
The Business Outlook survey of the FRB of Philadelphia for Oct 2021 states (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/mbos-2021-10):
“The indicators for prices paid and prices received remained elevated this month. The prices paid index rose 3 points to 70.3 (see Chart 2). The percentage of firms reporting increases in input prices (73 percent) far exceeded the percentage reporting decreases (3 percent); 22 percent of the firms reported no change. The current prices received index edged down 2 points to 51.1. Over 58 percent of the firms reported increases in prices received for their own goods this month, 7 percent reported decreases, and 34 percent reported no change. “
Chart IV-2AOct2021, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Current Prices Paid and Received Diffusion Index SA
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021.
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