Risks of Unwinding Monetary Policy, United States Industrial Production, United States International Trade, World Economic Slowdown and Global Recession Risk: Part III

 

Risks of Unwinding Monetary Policy, United States Industrial Production, United States International Trade, World Economic Slowdown and Global Recession Risk

Carlos M. Pelaez

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

Executive Summary

I United States Industrial Production

II United States International Trade

III World Financial Turbulence

IIIA Financial Risks

IIIE Appendix Euro Zone Survival Risk

IIIF Appendix on Sovereign Bond Valuation

IV Global Inflation

V World Economic Slowdown

VA United States

VB Japan

VC China

VD Euro Area

VE Germany

VF France

VG Italy

VH United Kingdom

VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets

VII Economic Indicators

VIII Interest Rates

IX Conclusion

References

Appendixes

Appendix I The Great Inflation

IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies

IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact

IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort

IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis

IIIGA Monetary Policy with Deficit Financing of Economic Growth

IIIGB Adjustment during the Debt Crisis of the 1980s

V World Economic Slowdown. Table V-1 is constructed with the database of the IMF (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2013/02/weodata/index.aspx) to show GDP in dollars in 2012 and the growth rate of real GDP of the world and selected regional countries from 2013 to 2016. The data illustrate the concept often repeated of “two-speed recovery” of the world economy from the recession of 2007 to 2009. The IMF has lowered its forecast of the world economy to 2.9 percent in 2013 but accelerating to 3.6 percent in 2014, 4.0 percent in 2015 and 4.1 percent in 2016. Slow-speed recovery occurs in the “major advanced economies” of the G7 that account for $34,560 billion of world output of $72,216 billion, or 47.9 percent, but are projected to grow at much lower rates than world output, 2.1 percent on average from 2013 to 2016 in contrast with 3.6 percent for the world as a whole. While the world would grow 15.4 percent in the four years from 2013 to 2016, the G7 as a whole would grow 8.6 percent. The difference in dollars of 2012 is rather high: growing by 15.4 percent would add $11.1 trillion of output to the world economy, or roughly, two times the output of the economy of Japan of $5,960 billion but growing by 8.6 percent would add $6.2 trillion of output to the world, or about the output of Japan in 2012. The “two speed” concept is in reference to the growth of the 150 countries labeled as emerging and developing economies (EMDE) with joint output in 2012 of $27,221 billion, or 37.7 percent of world output. The EMDEs would grow cumulatively 21.9 percent or at the average yearly rate of 5.1 percent, contributing $6.0 trillion from 2013 to 2016 or the equivalent of somewhat less than the GDP of $8,221 billion of China in 2012. The final four countries in Table V-1 often referred as BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China), are large, rapidly growing emerging economies. Their combined output in 2012 adds to $14,346 billion, or 19.9 percent of world output, which is equivalent to 41.5 percent of the combined output of the major advanced economies of the G7.

Table V-1, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Real GDP Growth

	GDP USD 2012	Real GDP ∆% 2013	Real GDP ∆% 2014	Real GDP ∆% 2015	Real GDP ∆% 2016
World	72,216	2.9	3.6	4.0	4.1
G7	34,560	1.2	2.0	2.5	2.6
Canada	1,821	1.6	2.2	2.4	2.5
France	2,614	0.2	1.0	1.5	1.7
DE	3,430	0.5	1.4	1.4	1.3
Italy	2,014	-1.8	0.7	1.1	1.4
Japan	5,960	1.9	1.2	1.1	1.2
UK	2,477	1.4	1.9	2.0	2.0
US	16,245	1.6	2.6	3.4	3.5
Euro Area	12,199	-0.4	1.0	1.4	1.5
DE	3,430	0.5	1.4	1.4	1.3
France	2,614	0.2	1.0	1.5	1.7
Italy	2,014	-1.8	0.7	1.1	1.4
POT	212	-1.8	0.8	1.5	1.8
Ireland	211	0.6	1.8	2.5	2.5
Greece	249	-4.2	0.6	2.9	3.7
Spain	1,324	-1.3	0.2	0.5	0.7
EMDE	27,221	4.5	5.1	5.3	5.4
Brazil	2,253	2.5	2.5	3.2	3.3
Russia	2,030	1.5	3.0	3.5	3.5
India	1,842	3.8	5.1	6.3	6.5
China	8,221	7.6	7.3	7.0	7.0

Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries); POT: Portugal

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook databank http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2013/02/weodata/index.aspx

Continuing high rates of unemployment in advanced economies constitute another characteristic of the database of the WEO (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2013/02/weodata/index.aspx). Table V-2 is constructed with the WEO database to provide rates of unemployment from 2012 to 2016 for major countries and regions. In fact, unemployment rates for 2012 in Table V-2 are high for all countries: unusually high for countries with high rates most of the time and unusually high for countries with low rates most of the time. The rates of unemployment are particularly high for the countries with sovereign debt difficulties in Europe: 15.7 percent for Portugal (POT), 14.7 percent for Ireland, 24.2 percent for Greece, 25.0 percent for Spain and 10.6 percent for Italy, which is lower but still high. The G7 rate of unemployment is 7.4 percent. Unemployment rates are not likely to decrease substantially if slow growth persists in advanced economies.

Table V-2, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Unemployment Rate as Percent of Labor Force

	% Labor Force 2012	% Labor Force 2013	% Labor Force 2014	% Labor Force 2015	% Labor Force 2016
World	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
G7	7.4	7.3	7.3	7.0	6.6
Canada	7.3	7.2	7.1	7.0	6.9
France	10.3	11.0	11.1	10.9	10.5
DE	5.5	5.6	5.5	5.5	5.5
Italy	10.7	12.5	12.4	12.0	11.2
Japan	4.4	4.2	4.3	4.3	4.3
UK	8.0	7.7	7.5	7.3	7.0
US	8.1	7.6	7.4	6.9	6.4
Euro Area	11.4	12.3	12.2	12.0	11.5
DE	5.5	5.6	5.5	5.5	5.5
France	10.3	11.0	11.1	10.9	10.5
Italy	10.7	12.5	12.4	12.0	11.2
POT	15.7	17.4	17.7	17.3	16.8
Ireland	14.7	13.7	13.3	12.8	12.4
Greece	24.2	27.0	26.1	24.0	21.0
Spain	25.0	26.9	26.7	26.5	26.2
EMDE	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
Brazil	5.5	5.8	6.0	6.5	6.5
Russia	6.0	5.7	5.7	5.5	5.5
India	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
China	4.1	4.1	4.1	4.1	4.1

Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries)

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook databank http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2013/02/weodata/index.aspx

Table V-3 provides the latest available estimates of GDP for the regions and countries followed in this blog from IQ2012 to IIQ2013 available now for all countries. There are preliminary estimates for all countries for IIIQ2013. Growth is weak throughout most of the world. Japan’s GDP increased 1.2 percent in IQ2012 and 3.4 percent relative to a year earlier but part of the jump could be the low level a year earlier because of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan is experiencing difficulties with the overvalued yen because of worldwide capital flight originating in zero interest rates with risk aversion in an environment of softer growth of world trade. Japan’s GDP fell 0.2 percent in IIQ2012 at the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of minus 0.8 percent, which is much lower than 5.1 percent in IQ2012. Growth of 3.8 percent in IIQ2012 in Japan relative to IIQ2011 has effects of the low level of output because of Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.9 percent in IIIQ2012 at the SAAR of minus 3.7 percent and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP grew 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 at the SAAR of 0.6 percent and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan grew 1.1 percent in IQ2013 at the SAAR of 4.3 percent and 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.9 percent in IIQ2013 at the SAAR of 3.8 percent and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP grew 0.5 percent in IIIQ2013 at the SAAR of 1.9 percent and increased 2.7 pecent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 2.2 percent in IIQ2012, which annualizes to 9.1 percent and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 2.0 percent in IIIQ2012, which annualizes at 8.2 percent and 7.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, China grew at 1.9 percent, which annualizes at 7.8 percent, and 7.9 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, China grew at 1.5 percent, which annualizes at 6.1 percent and 7.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, China grew at 1.9 percent, which annualizes at 7.8 percent and 7.5 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 2.2 percent in IIIQ2013, which annualizes at 9.1 percent and 7.8 percent relative to a year earlier. There is decennial change in leadership in China (http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/special/18cpcnc/index.htm). Growth rates of GDP of China in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier have been declining from 2011 to 2013. GDP fell 0.1 percent in the euro area in IQ2012 and decreased 0.2 in IQ2012 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP contracted 0.3 percent IIQ2012 and fell 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.1 percent and declined 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.5 percent relative to the prior quarter and fell 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, the GDP of the euro area fell 0.2 percent and decreased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In III 2013, euro area GDP increased 0.1 percent and fell 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IQ2012 and 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, Germany’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier but 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier when adjusted for calendar (CA) effects. In IIIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP contracted 0.5 percent in IVQ2012 and increased 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 0.0 percent and fell 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 0.7 percent and 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2013 and 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Growth of US GDP in IQ2012 was 0.9 percent, at SAAR of 3.7 percent and higher by 3.3 percent relative to IQ2011. US GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2012, 1.2 percent at SAAR and 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, GDP grew 0.7 percent, 2.8 percent at SAAR and 3.1 percent relative to IIIQ2011. In IVQ2012, GDP grew 0.0 percent, 0.1 percent at SAAR and 2.0 percent relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, US GDP grew at 1.1 percent SAAR, 0.3 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.3 percent relative to the same quarter in 2013. In IIQ2013, US GDP grew at 2.5 percent in SAAR, 0.6 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.6 percent relative to IIQ2012. US GDP grew at 2.8 percent in SAAR in IIIQ2013, 0.7 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.6 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/global-financial-risk-mediocre-united.html) with weak hiring (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/twenty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html). In IQ2012, UK GDP changed 0.0 percent, increasing 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP fell 0.5 percent in IIQ2012 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2012 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP fell 0.3 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IIIQ2012 and fell 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.4 percent in IQ2013 and 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2013 and 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2013, UK GDP increased 0.8 percent and 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy has experienced decline of GDP in nine consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IIIQ2013. Italy’s GDP fell 1.1 percent in IQ2012 and declined 1.8 percent relative to IQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell 0.6 percent in IIQ2012 and declined 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, Italy’s GDP fell 0.4 percent and declined 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy contracted 0.9 percent in IVQ2012 and fell 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, Italy’s GDP contracted 0.6 percent and fell 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.3 percent in IIQ2013 and 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy fell 0.1 percent in IIIQ2013 and declined 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IQ2012 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.3 percent in IIQ2012 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP fell 0.2 percent in IVQ2012 and declined 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, France GDP fell 0.1 percent and declined 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2013 and 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP contracted 0.1 percent in IIIQ2013 and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier.

Table V-3, Percentage Changes of GDP Quarter on Prior Quarter and on Same Quarter Year Earlier, ∆%

	IQ2012/IVQ2011	IQ2012/IQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.9        SAAR: 3.7	3.3
Japan	QOQ: 1.2 SAAR: 5.1	3.4
China	1.4	8.1
Euro Area	-0.1	-0.2
Germany	0.7	1.8
France	0.0	0.4
Italy	-1.1	-1.8
United Kingdom	0.0	0.6
	IIQ2012/IQ2012	IIQ2012/IIQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.3         SAAR: 1.2	2.8
Japan	QOQ: -0.2 SAAR: -0.8	3.8
China	2.2	7.6
Euro Area	-0.3	-0.5
Germany	-0.1	0.6 1.1 CA
France	-0.3	0.1
Italy	-0.6	-2.6
United Kingdom	-0.5	0.0
	IIIQ2012/ IIQ2012	IIIQ2012/ IIIQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.7  SAAR: 2.8	3.1
Japan	QOQ: –0.9 SAAR: –3.7	0.3
China	2.0	7.4
Euro Area	-0.1	-0.7
Germany	0.2	0.4
France	0.2	0.0
Italy	-0.4	-2.8
United Kingdom	0.6	0.0
	IVQ2012/IIIQ2012	IVQ2012/IVQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.0 SAAR: 0.1	2.0
Japan	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.6	0.3
China	1.9	7.9
Euro Area	-0.5	-1.0
Germany	-0.5	0.0
France	-0.2	-0.3
Italy	-0.9	-3.0
United Kingdom	-0.3	-0.2
	IQ2013/IVQ2012	IQ2013/IQ2012
United States	QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.1	1.3
Japan	QOQ: 1.1 SAAR: 4.3	0.3
China	1.5	7.7
Euro Area	-0.2	-1.2
Germany	0.0	-1.6
France	-0.1	-0.4
Italy	-0.6	-2.5
UK	0.4	0.2
	IIQ2013/IQ2013	IIQ2013/IIQ2012
United States	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.5	1.6
Japan	QOQ: 0.9 SAAR: 3.8	1.1
China	1.9	7.5
Euro Area	0.3	-0.6
Germany	0.7	0.9
France	0.5	0.5
Italy	-0.3	-2.2
UK	0.7	1.3
	IIIQ2013/IIQ2013	III/Q2013/  IIIQ2012
USA	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.8	1.6
Japan	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 1.9	2.7
China	2.2	7.8
Euro Area	0.1	-0.4
Germany	0.3	1.1
France	-0.1	0.2
Italy	-0.1	-1.9
UK	0.8	1.5

QOQ: Quarter relative to prior quarter; SAAR: seasonally adjusted annual rate

Source: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.bea.gov/national/index.htm#gdp

There is evidence of deceleration of growth of world trade and even contraction in recent data. Table V-4 provides two types of data: growth of exports and imports in the latest available months and in the past 12 months; and contributions of net trade (exports less imports) to growth of real GDP. Japan provides the most worrisome data (Section VB and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations_8763.html http://cmpass ocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/paring-quantitative-easing-policy-and_4699.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/thirty-one-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/12/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_24.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/11/contraction-of-united-states-real_25.html and for GDP http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/recovery-without-hiring-united-states.html). In Sep 2013, Japan’s exports grew 11.5 percent in 12 months while imports increased 16.5 percent. The second part of Table V-4 shows that net trade deducted 1.0 percentage points from Japan’s growth of GDP in IIQ2012, deducted 2.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2012 and deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2012. Net trade added 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2012, 1.6 percentage points in IQ2013 and 0.7 percentage points in IIQ2013. In Oct 2013, China exports increased 5.6 percent relative to a year earlier and imports increased 7.6 percent. Germany’s exports increased 1.7 percent in the month of Aug 2013 and fell 5.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2013. Germany’s imports increased 1.7 percent in the month of Sep and increased 3.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to growth of GDP in IQ2012, contributed 0.4 percentage points in IIQ2012, contributed 0.3 percentage points in IIIQ2012, deducted 0.5 percentage points in IVQ2012, deducted 0.2 percentage points in IQ2012 and added 0.2 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net trade deducted 0.8 percentage points from UK value added in IQ2012, deducted 0.6 percentage points in IIQ2012, added 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2012 and subtracted 0.2 percentage points in IVQ2012. In IQ2013, net trade added 0.3 percentage points to UK’s growth of value added and contributed 0.0 percentage points in IIQ2013. France’s exports increased 1.8 percent in Sep 2013 while imports increased 3.4. Net traded added 0.1 percentage points from France’s GDP in IIIQ2012 and 0.2 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IQ2013 and was neutral in IIQ2013, deducting 0.7 percentage points in IIIQ2013. US exports decreased 0.2 percent in Sep 2013 and goods exports increased 1.6 percent in Jan-Sep 2013 relative to a year earlier but net trade deducted 0.03 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2012 and added 0.68 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade deducted 0.28 percentage points from US GDP growth in IQ2013 and deducted 0.07 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded added 0.31 percentage points to US GDP growth in IIIQ2013. US imports increased 1.2 percent in Sep 2013 and goods imports decreased 0.9 percent in Jan-Sep 2013 relative to a year earlier. Industrial production decreased 0.1 percent in Oct 2013 after increasing 0.7 percent in Sep 2013 and increasing 0.5 percent in Aug 2013, as shown in Table I-1, with all data seasonally adjusted. The report of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System states (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm):

“Industrial production edged down 0.1 percent in October after having increased 0.7 percent in September. Manufacturing production rose 0.3 percent in October for its third consecutive monthly gain. The index for mining fell 1.6 percent after having risen for six consecutive months, and the output of utilities dropped 1.1 percent after having jumped 4.5 percent in September. The level of the index for total industrial production in October was equal to its 2007 average and was 3.2 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector declined 0.2 percentage point in October to 78.1 percent, a rate 1.1 percentage points above its level of a year earlier and 2.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2012) average.“

In the six months ending in Oct 2013, United States national industrial production accumulated increase of 1.3 percent at the annual equivalent rate of 2.6 percent, which is lower than growth of 3.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2013. Excluding growth of 0.7 percent in Sep 2013, growth in the remaining five months from May 2012 to Oct 2013 accumulated to 0.6 percent or 1.2 percent annual equivalent. Industrial production fell in two of the past six months. Business equipment accumulated growth of 1.7 percent in the six months from May to Oct 2013 at the annual equivalent rate of 3.4 percent, which is much lower than growth of 5.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2013. Growth of business equipment accumulated 0.1 percent from Apr to Aug 2013 at the annual equivalent rate of minus 0.2 percent. The Fed analyzes capacity utilization of total industry in its report (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm): “Capacity utilization for the industrial sector declined 0.2 percentage point in October to 78.1 percent, a rate 1.1 percentage points above its level of a year earlier and 2.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2012) average.” United States industry apparently decelerated to a lower growth rate. Manufacturing increased 0.3 percent in Oct 2013 after increasing 0.1 percent in Sep 2013 and increasing 0.7 percent in Aug 2013 seasonally adjusted, increasing 3.4 percent not seasonally adjusted in 12 months ending in Oct 2013, as shown in Table I-2. Manufacturing grew cumulatively 1.2 percent in the six months ending in Oct 2013 or at the annual equivalent rate of 2.4 percent. Excluding the increase of 0.7 percent in Aug 2013, manufacturing accumulated growth of 0.5 percent from May 2013 to Oct 2013 or at the annual equivalent rate of 1.0 percent. Manufacturing fell 21.9 from the peak in Jun 2007 to the trough in Apr 2009 and increased 16.8 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Dec 2012. Manufacturing grew 21.2 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Oct 2013. Manufacturing output in Oct 2013 is 5.3 percent below the peak in Jun 2007.

Table V-4, Growth of Trade and Contributions of Net Trade to GDP Growth, ∆% and % Points

	Exports M ∆%	Exports 12 M ∆%	Imports M ∆%	Imports 12 M ∆%
USA	-0.2 Sep	1.6 Jan-Sep	1.2 Sep	-0.9 Jan-Sep
Japan		Sep 2013 11.5 Aug 2013 14.7 Jul 2013 12.2 Jun 2013 7.4 May 2013 10.1 Apr 2013 3.8 Mar 2013 1.1 Feb 2013 -2.9 Jan 2013 6.4 Dec -5.8 Nov -4.1 Oct -6.5 Sep -10.3 Aug -5.8 Jul -8.1		Sep 2013 16.5 Aug 2013 16.0 Jul 2013 19.6 Jun 2013 11.8 May 2013 10.0 Apr 2013 9.4 Mar 2013 5.5 Feb 2013 7.3 Jan 2013 7.3 Dec 1.9 Nov 0.8 Oct -1.6 Sep 4.1 Aug -5.4 Jul 2.1
China		5.6 Oct -0.3 Sep 7.2 Aug 5.1 Jul -3.1 Jun 1.0 May 14.7 Apr 10.0 Mar 21.8 Feb		7.6 Oct 7.4 Sep 10.9 Jul -0.7 Jun -0.3 May 16.8 Apr 14.1 Mar -15.2 Feb
Euro Area	-5.4 12-M Aug	0.9 Jan-Aug	-7.2 12-M Aug	-4.0 Jan-Aug
Germany	1.7 Sep CSA	3.6 Sep	-1.9 Sep CSA	-0.3 Sep
France Sep	1.8	-1.3	3.4	0.7
Italy Aug	1.7	-4.4	1.1	-9.8
UK	0.1 Sep	0.1 Jul-Sep 13 /Jul-Sep 12	0.2 Sep	1.8 Jul-Sep 13/Jul-Sep 12
Net Trade % Points GDP Growth	% Points
USA	IIIQ2013 0.31 IIQ2013 -0.07 IQ2013 -0.28 IVQ2012 +0.68 IIIQ2012 -0.03 IIQ2012 +0.10 IQ2012 +0.44
Japan	0.3 IQ2012 -1.0 IIQ2012 -2.7 IIIQ2012 -0.2 IVQ2012 1.6 IQ2013 0.7 IIQ2013
Germany	IQ2012 0.8 IIQ2012 0.4 IIIQ2012 0.3 IVQ2012 -0.5 IQ2013 -0.2 IIQ2013 0.2
France	0.1 IIIQ2012 0.2 IVQ2012 -0.1 IQ2013 0.0 IIQ2013 -0.7 IIIQ2013
UK	-0.8 IQ2012 -0.6 IIQ2012 +0.4 IIIQ2012 -0.2 IVQ2012 0.3 IQ2013 0.0 IIQ2013

Sources: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/ http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm

The geographical breakdown of exports and imports of Japan with selected regions and countries is provided in Table V-5 for Sep 2013. The share of Asia in Japan’s trade is more than one-half for 53.3 percent of exports and 45.7 percent of imports. Within Asia, exports to China are 17.8 percent of total exports and imports from China 24.4 percent of total imports. While exports to China increased 11.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2013, imports from China increased 30.9 percent. The largest export market for Japan in Sep 2013 is the US with share of 18.6 percent of total exports, which is almost equal to that of China, and share of imports from the US of 8.3 percent in total imports. Western Europe has share of 10.9 percent in Japan’s exports and of 10.4 percent in imports. Rates of growth of exports of Japan in Sep 2013 are relatively high for several countries and regions with growth of 18.8 percent for exports to the US, 12.7 percent for exports to Mexico, 17.5 percent for exports to Brazil and 22.7 percent for exports to Australia. Comparisons relative to 2011 may have some bias because of the effects of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Deceleration of growth in China and the US and threat of recession in Europe can reduce world trade and economic activity. Growth rates of imports in the 12 months ending in Sep 2013 are positive for all trading partners. Imports from Asia increased 21.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2013 while imports from China increased 30.9 percent. Data are in millions of yen, which may have effects of recent depreciation of the yen relative to the United States dollar (USD).

Table V-5, Japan, Value and 12-Month Percentage Changes of Exports and Imports by Regions and Countries, ∆% and Millions of Yen

Sep 2013	Exports Millions Yen	12 months ∆%	Imports Millions Yen	12 months ∆%
Total	5,972,129	11.5	6,904,278	16.5
Asia	3,183,116	8.2	3,157,135	21.7
China	1,062,421	11.4	1,682,383	30.9
USA	1,109,374	18.8	576,257	13.8
Canada	68,143	3.9	88,208	14.6
Brazil	49,002	17.5	81,227	4.9
Mexico	82,218	12.7	33,372	18.0
Western Europe	650,039	11.1	719,934	25.3
Germany	172,124	19.5	214,574	38.7
France	55,054	25.5	106,984	34.6
UK	91,845	-9.9	56,436	29.5
Middle East	219,353	21.2	1,259,004	1.3
Australia	148,527	22.7	423,281	9.4

Source: Japan, Ministry of Finance http://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/info/index_e.htm

World trade projections of the IMF are in Table V-6. There is increasing growth of the volume of world trade of goods and services from 2.9 percent in 2013 to 5.4 percent in 2015 and 5.1 percent on average from 2013 to 2018. World trade would be slower for advanced economies while emerging and developing economies (EMDE) experience faster growth. World economic slowdown would more challenging with lower growth of world trade.

Table V-6, IMF, Projections of World Trade, USD Billions, USD/Barrel and ∆%

	2013	2014	2015	Average ∆% 2013-2018
World Trade Volume (Goods and Services)	2.9	4.9	5.4	5.1
Exports Goods & Services	3.0	5.1	5.4	5.1
Imports Goods & Services	2.8	4.7	5.4	5.0
Oil Price USD/Barrel	104.49	101.35	NA	NA
Value of World Exports Goods & Services $B	23,164	24,367	NA	NA
Value of World Exports Goods $B	18,709	19,632	NA	NA
Exports Goods & Services
EMDE	3.5	5.8	6.3	5.9
G7	2.3	4.6	4.4	4.4
Imports Goods & Services
EMDE	5.0	5.9	6.7	6.2
G7	1.3	3.9	4.2	4.0
Terms of Trade of Goods & Services
EMDE	-0.5	-0.4	-0.6	-0.5
G7	0.1	-0.1	0.1	0.1
Terms of Trade of Goods
EMDE	-0.6	-0.9	-0.9	-0.8
G7	-0.5	0.2	0.2	-0.007

Notes: Commodity Price Index includes Fuel and Non-fuel Prices; Commodity Industrial Inputs Price includes agricultural raw materials and metal prices; Oil price is average of WTI, Brent and Dubai

Source: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook databank

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2013/02/weodata/index.aspx

The JP Morgan Global All-Industry Output Index of the JP Morgan Manufacturing and Services PMI^™, produced by JP Morgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM, with high association with world GDP, increased to 55.5 in Oct from 53.6 in Sep, indicating expansion at a faster rate (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c79ee00ee91f455481b9003790967656). This index has remained above the contraction territory of 50.0 during 51 consecutive months. The employment index increased from 51.1 in Sep to 52.7 in Oct with input prices rising at a slower rate and new orders increasing at slower rate and output increasing at faster rate (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c79ee00ee91f455481b9003790967656). David Hensley, Director of Global Economic Coordination at JP Morgan, finds acceleration in the first month of IVQ2013 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c79ee00ee91f455481b9003790967656). The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI^™, produced by JP Morgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM, was higher at 52.1 in Oct from 51.8 in Sep, which is the highest reading in about two-and-a-half years (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/2711528c99224748b8842d9cb3e54a6b). New export orders expanded at the fastest pace since Mar 2011 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/2711528c99224748b8842d9cb3e54a6b). David Hensley, Director of Global Economic Coordination at JP Morgan finds acceleration of global manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/2711528c99224748b8842d9cb3e54a6b). The HSBC Brazil Composite Output Index, compiled by Markit, increased from 50.7 in Sep to 52.0 in Oct, indicating moderate expansion (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/48044fa43da14afdb6f777309c47ccfe). The HSBC Brazil Services Business Activity index, compiled by Markit increased marginally from 50.7 in Sep to 52.1 in Oct, indicating moderate improvement in business activity in an eight-month high (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/48044fa43da14afdb6f777309c47ccfe). Andre Loes, Chief Economist, Brazil, at HSBC, finds that the reading of services of 52.1 is the highest since Feb, indicating stronger growth in IVQ2013 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/48044fa43da14afdb6f777309c47ccfe). The HSBC Brazil Purchasing Managers’ Index^TM (PMI^™) increased from 49.9 in Sep to 50.2 in Oct for the first reading above 50 in four months but with only marginal improvement (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b34553b098084f75b4bed09bebe6887c). Andre Loes, Chief Economist, Brazil at HSBC, finds acceleration of output with unchanged orders and the highest rate of output inflation in the history of the survey while input costs increased at the fastest rate since Oct 2008 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b34553b098084f75b4bed09bebe6887c).

VA United States. The Markit Flash US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) seasonally adjusted decreased to 51.1 in Oct from 52.8 in Sep, indicating moderate growth (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b09c5d2286464631a1b040b8d7370dfc). New export orders registered 50.7 in Oct up from 49.0 in Aug, indicating marginal expansion. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds that manufacturing output declined for the first time since Sep 2009 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b09c5d2286464631a1b040b8d7370dfc). The Markit US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) decreased to 51.8 in Oct from 52.8 in Sep (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/ef50b354e0ca4801b08e53072919d1c2). The index of new exports orders increased from 49.0 in Sep to 51.3 in Oct while total new orders decreased from 53.2 in Sep to 52.7 in Oct. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds that the index suggests standstill of manufacturing in the US with uncertainty in the overall economy and job creation (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/ef50b354e0ca4801b08e53072919d1c2). The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Report on Business^® increased 0.2 percentage points from 56.2 in Sep to 56.4 in Oct, which indicates growth at a higher rate (http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm?navItemNumber=12942). The index of new orders increased 0.1 percentage points from 60.5 in Sep to 60.6 in Oct. The index of exports increased 5.0 percentage point from 52.0 in Sep to 57.0 in Oct, growing at a faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report on Business^® PMI increased 1.0 percentage points from 54.4 in Sep to 55.4 in Oct, indicating growth of business activity/production during 51 consecutive months, while the index of new orders decreased 2.8 percentage points from 59.6 in Sep to 56.8 in Oct (http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm?navItemNumber=12943). Table USA provides the country economic indicators for the US.

Table USA, US Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index	Sep 12 months NSA ∆%: 1.2; ex food and energy ∆%: 1.7 Sep month SA ∆%: 0.2; ex food and energy ∆%: 0.1 Blog 11/3/13
Producer Price Index	Sep 12-month NSA ∆%: 0.3; ex food and energy ∆% 1.1 Sep month SA ∆% = 0.3; ex food and energy ∆%: 0.1 Blog 11/3/13
PCE Inflation	Sep 12-month NSA ∆%: headline 0.9; ex food and energy ∆% 1.2 Blog 11/10/13
Employment Situation	Household Survey: Oct Unemployment Rate SA 7.3% Blog calculation People in Job Stress Sep: 28.9 million NSA, 17.7% of Labor Force Establishment Survey: Nov Nonfarm Jobs +204,000; Private +212,000 jobs created  Sep 12-month Average Hourly Earnings Inflation Adjusted ∆%: 0.9 Blog 11/10/13
Nonfarm Hiring	Nonfarm Hiring fell from 63.8 million in 2006 to 52.0 million in 2012 or by 11.8 million Private-Sector Hiring Aug 2013 4.482 million lower by 0.905 million than 5387 million in Aug 2005 Blog 10/27/13
GDP Growth	BEA Revised National Income Accounts IQ2012/IQ2011 ∆%: 3.3 IIQ2012/IIQ2011 2.8 IIIQ2012/IIIQ2011 3.1 IVQ2012/IVQ2011 2.0 IQ2013/IQ2012 1.3 IIQ2013/IIQ2012 1.6 IIIQ2013/IIIQ2012 1.6 IQ2012 SAAR 3.7 IIQ2012 SAAR 1.2 IIIQ2012 SAAR 2.8 IVQ2012 SAAR 0.1 IQ2013 SAAR 1.1 IIQ2013 SAAR 2.5 IIIQ2013 SAAR 2.8 Blog 11/10/13
Real Private Fixed Investment	SAAR IIIQ2013 4.1 ∆% IVQ2007 to IIIQ2013: minus 4.0% Blog 11/10/13
Personal Income and Consumption	Sep month ∆% SA Real Disposable Personal Income (RDPI) SA ∆% 0.4 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (RPCE): 0.1 12-month Sep NSA ∆%: RDPI: 2.0; RPCE ∆%: 1.7 Blog 11/3/13
Quarterly Services Report	IIQ13/IIQ12 SA ∆%: Information 4.1 Financial & Insurance 4.2 Blog 9/8/13
Employment Cost Index	Compensation Private IIQ2013 SA ∆%: 0.5 Jun 13 months ∆%: 1.9 Blog 8/11/13
Industrial Production	Oct month SA ∆%: -0.1 Oct 12 months SA ∆%: 3.2 Manufacturing Oct SA ∆% 0.3 Oct 12 months SA ∆% 3.3, NSA 3.4 Capacity Utilization: 78.1 Blog 11/17/13
Productivity and Costs	Nonfarm Business Productivity IIIQ2013∆% SAAE 1.9; IIIQ2013/IIIQ2012 ∆% 0.0; Unit Labor Costs SAAE IIIQ2013 ∆% -0.6; IIIQ2013/IIIQ2012 ∆%: 1.9 Blog 11/17/2013
New York Fed Manufacturing Index	General Business Conditions From Sep 6.29 to Oct 1.52 New Orders: From Sep 2.35 to Oct 7.75 Blog 10/20/13
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index	General Index from Sep 22.3 to Oct 19.8 New Orders from Sep 21.2 to Oct 27.5 Blog 10/20/13
Manufacturing Shipments and Orders	New Orders SA Sep ∆% 1.7 Ex Transport -0.2 Jan-Sep NSA New Orders 2.4 Ex transport 1.5 Blog 11/10/13
Durable Goods	Sep New Orders SA ∆%: 3.7; ex transport ∆%: -0.1 Jan-Sep 13/Jan-Sep 12 New Orders NSA ∆%: 4.6; ex transport ∆% 3.2 Blog 10/27/13
Sales of New Motor Vehicles	Jan-Oct 2013 12,994,572; Jan-Oct 2012 11,992,071. Oct 13 SAAR 15.23 million, Sep 13 SAAR 16.28 million, Oct 2012 SAAR 14.40 million Blog 11/3/13
Sales of Merchant Wholesalers	Jan-Aug 2013/Jan-Aug 2012 NSA ∆%: Total 3.2; Durable Goods: 3.1; Nondurable Goods: 3.2 Blog 10/27/13
Sales and Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers	Aug 13/Jul 12-M NSA ∆%: Sales Total Business 2.9; Manufacturers 1.5 Retailers 4.7; Merchant Wholesalers 3.0 Blog 11/3/13
Sales for Retail and Food Services	Jan-Sep 2013/Jan-Sep 2012 ∆%: Retail and Food Services 4.2; Retail ∆% 4.3 Blog 11/3/13
Value of Construction Put in Place	Aug SAAR month SA ∆%: 0.6 Aug 12-month NSA: 6.5 Jan-Aug 2013 ∆% 5.9 Blog 10/27/13
Case-Shiller Home Prices	Aug 2013/Aug 2012 ∆% NSA: 10 Cities 12.8; 20 Cities: 12.8 ∆% Aug SA: 1.9 Cities 0.9 ; 20 Cities: 0.9 Blog 11/3/13
FHFA House Price Index Purchases Only	Aug SA ∆% 0.3; 12 month NSA ∆%: 8.5 Blog 10/27/13
New House Sales	Aug 2013 month SAAR ∆%: 7.9 Jan-Aug 2013/Jan-Aug 2012 NSA ∆%: 20.4 Blog 9/29/13
Housing Starts and Permits	Aug Starts month SA ∆%: 0.9 ; Permits ∆%: -3.8 Jan-Aug 2013/Jan-Aug 2012 NSA ∆% Starts 22.6; Permits  ∆% 21.2 Blog 9/22/13
Trade Balance	Balance Sep SA -$41,778 million versus Aug -$38,701 million Exports Sep SA ∆%: -0.2 Imports Sep SA ∆%: 1.2 Goods Exports Jan-Sep 2013/2012 NSA ∆%: 1.6 Goods Imports Jan-Sep 2013/2012 NSA ∆%: -0.9 Blog 11/17/13
Export and Import Prices	Oct 12-month NSA ∆%: Imports -2.0; Exports -2.1 Blog 11/17/13
Consumer Credit	Sep ∆% annual rate: Total 5.4; Revolving minus 2.9; Nonrevolving 8.7 Blog 11/10/13
Net Foreign Purchases of Long-term Treasury Securities	Aug Net Foreign Purchases of Long-term US Securities: -$8.9 billion Major Holders of Treasury Securities: China $1268 billion; Japan $1149 billion; Total Foreign US Treasury Holdings Jul $5589 billion Blog 10/27/13
Treasury Budget	Fiscal Year 2014/2013 ∆% Oct: Receipts 7.9; Outlays minus 4.6; Individual Income Taxes minus 2.9 Deficit Fiscal Year 2011 $1,296 billion Deficit Fiscal Year 2012 $1,087 billion Blog 11/17/2013
CBO Budget and Economic Outlook	2012 Deficit $1087 B 6.8% GDP Debt 11,281 B 70.1% GDP 2013 Deficit $642 B, Debt 12,036 B 72.5% GDP Blog 8/26/12 11/18/12 2/10/13 9/22/13
Commercial Banks Assets and Liabilities	Sep 2013 SAAR ∆%: Securities -8.7 Loans 1.2 Cash Assets 59.9 Deposits 8.0 Blog 11/3/13
Flow of Funds	IIQ2013 ∆ since 2007 Assets +6079.8 MM Real estate -$2325.1 MM Financial +7835.2 MM Net Worth +$6902.3 MM Blog 9/29/13
Current Account Balance of Payments	IIQ2013 -178,171 MM %GDP 2.4 Blog 9/22/13

Links to blog comments in Table USA:

11/10/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/global-financial-risk-mediocre-united.html

11/3/2013 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/global-financial-risk-world-inflation.html

10/27/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/twenty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html

10/20/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/world-inflation-waves-regional-economic.html

9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

9/22/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

9/8/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/twenty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html

8/11/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/recovery-without-hiring-loss-of-full.html

2/10/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/united-states-unsustainable-fiscal.html

11/18/12 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/11/united-states-unsustainable-fiscal.html

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the Department of Labor provides the quarterly report on productivity and costs. The operational definition of productivity used by the BLS is (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/prod2.pdf 1): “Labor productivity, or output per hour, is calculated by dividing an index of real output by an index of hours worked of all persons, including employees, proprietors, and unpaid family workers.” The BLS has revised the estimates for productivity and unit costs. Table VA-1 provides the new estimate for IIIQ2013 and revised data for nonfarm business sector productivity and unit labor costs for IIQ2013 and IQ2013 in seasonally adjusted annual equivalent (SAAE) rate and the percentage change from the same quarter a year earlier. Reflecting increases in output of 3.7 percent in output and of 1.7 percent in hours worked, nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a SAAE rate of 1.9 percent in IIIQ2013, as shown in column 2 “IIIQ2013 SAEE.” The increase of labor productivity from IIIQ2012 to IIIQ2013 was 0.0 percent, reflecting increases in output of 1.8 percent and of hours worked of 1.8 percent, as shown in column 3 “IIIQ2013 YoY.” Hours worked increased from 1.5 percent in IQ2013 in SAAE to 1.4 percent in IIQ2013 and 1.7 percent in IIIQ2013 while output growth increased from minus 0.3 percent in IQ2013 to 3.3 percent in IIQ2013 and 3.7 percent in IIIQ2013. The BLS defines unit labor costs as (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/prod2.pdf 1): “BLS defines unit labor costs as the ratio of hourly compensation to labor productivity; increases in hourly compensation tend to increase unit labor costs and increases in output per hour tend to reduce them.” Unit labor costs changed at the SAAE rate of minus 0.6 percent in IIIQ2013 and rose 1.9 percent in IIIQ2013 relative to IIIQ2012. Hourly compensation increased at the SAAE rate of 1.3 percent in IIIQ2013, which deflating by the estimated consumer price increase SAAE rate in IIIQ2013 results in increase of real hourly compensation at minus 1.3 percent. Real hourly compensation increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2013 relative to IIIQ2012.

Table VA-1, US, Nonfarm Business Sector Productivity and Costs %

	IIIQ 2013 SSAE	IIIQ 2013 YOY	IIQ 2013 SAAE	IIQ 2013 YoY	IQ 2013 SAAE	IQ 2013 YoY
Productivity	1.9	0.0	1.8	0.2	-1.7	0.0
Output	3.7	1.8	3.3	1.9	-0.3	1.5
Hours	1.7	1.8	1.4	1.7	1.5	1.5
Hourly Comp.	1.3	1.9	2.3	1.8	-5.2	1.7
Real Hourly Comp.	-1.3	0.3	2.3	0.3	-6.6	0.0
Unit Labor Costs	-0.6	1.9	0.5	1.6	-3.5	1.6
Unit Nonlabor Payments	6.2	0.3	1.3	0.6	6.8	1.3
Implicit Price Deflator	2.3	1.2	0.8	1.2	0.7	1.5

Notes: SAAE: seasonally adjusted annual equivalent; Comp.: compensation; YoY: Quarter on Same Quarter Year Earlier

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

http://www.bls.gov/lpc/

In 2012, productivity increased 1.5 percent in the annual average, as shown in Table VA-2. Increases in productivity were 0.5 percent in 2011, 3.3 percent in 2010 and 3.2 percent in 2009. Savings of labor inputs have characterized the contraction period and the recovery period. Real hourly compensation increased 0.5 percent in 2012 and fell 0.7 percent in 2011, interrupting increases of 0.4 percent in 2010 and 1.5 percent in 2009. Unit labor costs fell 2.0 percent in 2009 and 1.2 percent in 2010 but increased 2.0 percent in 2011 and 1.2 percent in 2012.

Table VA-2, US, Revised Nonfarm Business Sector Productivity and Costs Annual Average, ∆% Annual Average 

	2012 ∆%	2011 ∆%	2010 ∆%	2009 ∆%	2008  ∆%	2007 ∆%
Productivity	1.5	0.5	3.3	3.2	0.8	1.6
Real Hourly Compensation	0.5	-0.7	0.4	1.5	-1.1	1.4
Unit Labor Costs	1.2	2.0	-1.2	-2.0	2.0	2.6

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

http://www.bls.gov/lpc/

Productivity jumped in the recovery after the recession from Mar IQ2001 to Nov IVQ2001 (http://www.nber.org/cycles.html). Table VA-3 provides quarter on quarter and annual percentage changes in nonfarm business output per hour, or productivity, from 1999 to 2013. The annual average jumped from 2.7 percent in 2001 to 4.3 percent in 2002. Nonfarm business productivity increased at the SAAE rate of 9.5 percent in the first quarter after the recession in IQ2002. Productivity increases decline later in the expansion period. Productivity increases were mediocre during the recession from Dec IVQ2007 to Jun IIIQ2009 (http://www.nber.org/cycles.html) and increased during the first phase of expansion from IIQ2009 to IQ2010, trended lower and collapsed in 2011 and 2012 with sporadic jumps and declines. Productivity increased at 1.9 percent in IIIQ2013.

Table VA-3, US, Nonfarm Business Output per Hour, Percent Change from Prior Quarter at Annual Rate, 1999-2013

Year	Qtr1	Qtr2	Qtr3	Qtr4	Annual
1999	4.5	0.8	3.5	6.8	3.5
2000	-1.4	8.7	0.1	3.9	3.3
2001	-1.2	6.8	2.3	4.9	2.7
2002	9.5	0.3	3.1	-0.7	4.3
2003	4.0	5.7	9.1	3.7	3.7
2004	0.0	4.1	1.1	1.2	3.1
2005	4.6	-0.3	2.9	0.1	2.1
2006	2.6	-0.3	-1.8	3.2	0.9
2007	0.4	2.7	4.7	1.8	1.6
2008	-3.9	4.0	0.9	-2.6	0.8
2009	3.2	8.2	5.9	4.7	3.2
2010	1.9	1.5	2.4	2.1	3.3
2011	-3.2	1.9	0.0	2.9	0.5
2012	1.5	1.2	2.5	-1.7	1.5
2013	-1.7	1.8	1.9

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

http://www.bls.gov/lpc/

Chart VA-1 of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) provides SAAE rates of nonfarm business productivity from 1999 to 2013. There is a clear pattern in both episodes of economic cycles in 2001 and 2007 of rapid expansion of productivity in the transition from contraction to expansion followed by more subdued productivity expansion. Part of the explanation is the reduction in labor utilization resulting from adjustment of business to the sudden shock of collapse of revenue. Productivity rose briefly in the expansion after 2009 but then collapsed and moved to negative change with some positive changes recently at lower rates.

Chart VA-1, US, Nonfarm Business Output per Hour, Percent Change from Prior Quarter at Annual Rate, 1999-2013

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.bls.gov/lpc/

Percentage changes from prior quarter at SAAE rates and annual average percentage changes of nonfarm business unit labor costs are provided in Table VA-4. Unit labor costs fell during the contractions with continuing negative percentage changes in the early phases of the recovery. Weak labor markets partly explain the decline in unit labor costs. As the economy moves toward full employment, labor markets tighten with increase in unit labor costs. The expansion beginning in IIIQ2009 has been characterized by high unemployment and underemployment. Table VA-4 shows continuing subdued increases in unit labor costs in 2011 but with increase of 7.4 percent in IQ2012 followed by increase of 0.7 percent in IIQ2012, decline of 1.8 percent in IIIQ2012 and increase of 11.8 percent in IVQ2012. Unit labor costs decreased at 3.5 percent in IQ2013 and increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2013. Unit labor costs decreased at 0.6 percent in IIIQ2013.

Table VA-4, US, Nonfarm Business Unit Labor Costs, Percent Change from Prior Quarter at Annual Rate 1999-2013

Year	Qtr1	Qtr2	Qtr3	Qtr4	Annual
1999	2.0	0.1	-0.1	1.7	0.7
2000	17.4	-6.8	8.2	-1.6	4.0
2001	11.4	-5.4	-1.7	-1.3	1.6
2002	-6.7	3.3	-1.1	1.8	-1.9
2003	-1.4	1.5	-2.7	1.7	0.1
2004	-0.6	3.7	5.8	0.6	1.4
2005	-1.5	2.5	2.1	2.4	1.5
2006	6.0	0.4	2.3	4.0	3.0
2007	9.8	-2.7	-3.2	2.6	2.6
2008	8.2	-3.6	2.5	7.3	2.0
2009	-12.3	1.9	-2.9	-2.2	-2.0
2010	-4.4	3.5	-0.1	-0.1	-1.2
2011	10.2	-2.9	3.0	-7.3	2.0
2012	7.4	0.7	-1.8	11.8	1.2
2013	-3.5	0.5	-0.6

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.bls.gov/lpc/

Chart VA-2 provides percentage changes quarter on quarter at SAAE rates of nonfarm business unit labor costs. With the exception of 3.5 percent in IIQ2010, a jump of 10.2 percent in IQ2011, 3.0 percent in IIIQ2011, 7.4 percent in IQ2012, 0.7 percent in IIQ2012 and 11.8 percent in IVQ2012, changes in nonfarm business unit labor costs have been negative. Unit labor costs increased at 0.5 percent in IIQ2013 and fell at 0.6 percent in IIIQ2013.

Chart VA-2, US, Nonfarm Business Unit Labor Costs, Percent Change from Prior Quarter at Annual Rate 1999-2013

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.bls.gov/lpc/

Table VA-5 provides percentage change from prior quarter at annual rates for nonfarm business real hourly worker compensation. The expansion after the contraction of 2001 was followed by strong recovery of real hourly compensation. Real hourly compensation increased at the rate of 2.1 percent in IQ2011 but fell at annual rates of 5.4 percent in IIQ2011 and 5.9 percent in IVQ2011. Real hourly compensation increased at 6.5 percent in IQ2012 and at 0.9 percent in IIQ2012, declining at 1.3 percent in IIIQ2012 and increasing at 7.5 percent in IVQ2012. Real hourly compensation fell 0.7 percent in 2011 and increased 0.5 percent in 2012. Real hourly compensation fell at 6.6 percent in IQ2013 and increased at 2.3 percent in IIQ2013, falling at 1.3 percent in IIIQ2013.

Table VA-5, Nonfarm Business Real Hourly Compensation, Percent Change from Prior Quarter at Annual Rate 1999-2013

Year	Qtr1	Qtr2	Qtr3	Qtr4	Annual
1999	5.1	-1.9	0.3	5.5	2.1
2000	11.5	-1.8	4.4	-0.5	3.9
2001	6.0	-1.8	-0.7	4.0	1.5
2002	0.7	0.4	-0.2	-1.4	0.7
2003	-1.5	8.0	3.0	3.9	1.5
2004	-3.9	4.8	4.2	-2.5	1.8
2005	1.2	-0.6	-1.1	-1.2	0.3
2006	6.5	-3.3	-3.4	9.2	0.6
2007	6.0	-4.5	-1.2	-0.5	1.4
2008	-0.5	-4.7	-2.7	14.7	-1.1
2009	-7.1	8.2	-0.8	-0.8	1.5
2010	-3.3	5.3	0.9	-1.0	0.4
2011	2.1	-5.4	0.0	-5.9	-0.7
2012	6.5	0.9	-1.3	7.5	0.5
2013	-6.6	2.3	-1.3

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.bls.gov/lpc/

Chart VA-3 provides percentage change from prior quarter at annual rate of nonfarm business real hourly compensation from 1999 to 2013. There are significant fluctuations in quarterly percentage changes oscillating between positive and negative. There is no clear pattern in the two contractions in the 2000s.

Chart VA-3, US, Nonfarm Business Real Hourly Compensation, Percent Change from Prior Quarter at Annual Rate 1999-2013

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.bls.gov/lpc/

Chart VA-4 provides percentage change of nonfarm business output per hour in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier. As in most series of real output, productivity increased sharply in 2010 but the momentum was lost after 2011 as with the rest of the real economy.

Chart VA-4, US, Nonfarm Business Output per Hour, Percent Change from Same Quarter a Year Earlier 1999-2013

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.bls.gov/lpc/

Chart VA-5 provides percentage changes of nonfarm business unit labor costs relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Softening of labor markets caused relatively high yearly percentage changes in the recession of 2001 repeated in the recession in 2009. Recovery was strong in 2010 but then weakened.

Chart VA-5, US, Nonfarm Business Unit Labor Costs, Percent Change from Same Quarter a Year Earlier 1999-2013

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.bls.gov/lpc/

Chart VA-6 provides percentage changes in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier for nonfarm business real hourly compensation. Labor compensation eroded sharply during the recession with brief recovery in 2010 and another fall until recently.

Chart VA-6, US, Nonfarm Business Real Hourly Compensation, Percent Change from Same Quarter a Year Earlier 1999-2013

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.bls.gov/lpc/

Rapid increase of US labor productivity in the 1990s is shown in Chart VA-7 with the index of nonfarm business labor productivity from 1947 to 2013. The rate of productivity increase continued in the early part of the 2000s but then softened and fell during the global recession.

Chart VA-7, US, Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity, Output per Hour, 1947-2013, Index 2005=100

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.bls.gov/lpc/

Unit labor costs increased sharply during the Great Inflation from the late 1960s to 1981 as shown by sharper slope in Chart VA-8. Unit labor costs continued to increase but at a lower rate.

Chart VA-8, US, Nonfarm Business, Unit Labor Costs, 1947-2013, Index 2005=100

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.bls.gov/lpc/

Real hourly compensation increased at relatively high rates after 1947 to the early 1970s but reached a plateau that lasted until the early 1990s, as shown in Chart VA-9. There were rapid increases until the global recession.

Chart VA-6, US, Nonfarm Business, Real Hourly Compensation, 1947-2013, Index 2005=100

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.bls.gov/lpc/

Table VA-7 provides additional information required for understanding the deficit/debt situation of the United States. The table is divided into four parts: Treasury budget in the 2014 fiscal year ending in Sep 2014; federal fiscal data for the years from 2009 to 2012; federal fiscal data for the years from 2005 to 2008; and Treasury debt held by the public from 2005 to 2012. Receipts increased 7.9 percent in the cumulative fiscal year 2014 ending in Sep 2014 relative to the cumulative in fiscal year 2013. Individual income taxes decreased 2.9 percent relative to the same period a year earlier. Outlays decreased 4.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Total revenues of the US from 2009 to 2012 accumulate to $9020 billion, or $9.0 trillion, while expenditures or outlays accumulate to $14,109 billion, or $14.1 trillion, with the deficit accumulating to $5089 billion, or $5.1 trillion. Revenues decreased 6.6 percent from $9653 billion in the four years from 2005 to 2008 to $9020 billion in the years from 2009 to 2012. Decreasing revenues were caused by the global recession from IVQ2007 (Dec) to IIQ2009 (Jun) and by growth of only 2.3 percent on average in the cyclical expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2013 (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/global-financial-risk-mediocre-united.html). In contrast with the decline of revenue, outlays or expenditures increased 30.2 percent from $10,839 billion, or $10.8 trillion, in the four years from 2005 to 2008, to $14,109 billion, or $14.1 trillion, in the four years from 2009 to 2012. Increase in expenditures by 30.2 percent while revenue declined by 6.6 percent caused the increase in the federal deficit from $1186 billion in 2005-2008 to $5089 billion in 2009-2012. Federal revenue was 14.9 percent of GDP on average in the years from 2009 to 2012, which is well below 17.4 percent of GDP on average from 1973 to 2012. Federal outlays were 23.3 percent of GDP on average from 2009 to 2012, which is well above 20.4 percent of GDP on average from 1973 to 2012. The lower part of Table IIB-4 shows that debt held by the public swelled from $5803 billion in 2008 to $11,281 billion in 2012, by $5478 billion or 94.4 percent. Debt held by the public as percent of GDP or economic activity jumped from 39.3 percent in 2008 to 70.1 percent in 2012, which is well above the average of 39.2 percent from 1973 to 2012 (http://www.cbo.gov/publication/44508). The United States faces tough adjustment because growth is unlikely to recover, creating limits on what can be obtained by increasing revenues, while continuing stress of social programs restricts what can be obtained by reducing expenditures.

Table VA-7, US, Treasury Budget in Fiscal Year to Date Million Dollars

Oct 2013	Fiscal Year 2014	Fiscal Year 2013	∆%
Receipts	198,927	184,316	7.9
Outlays	290,520	304,311	-4.5
Deficit	-91,592	-119,995	NA
Individual Income Taxes	99,106	102,039	-2.9
Social Insurance	50,056	40,150	24.7
	Receipts	Outlays	Deficit (-), Surplus (+)
$ Billions
2012	2,450	3,537	-1,087
Fiscal Year 2011	2,302	3,598	-1,296
Fiscal Year 2010	2,163	3,456	-1,293
Fiscal Year 2009	2,105	3,518	-1,413
Total 2009-2012	9,020	14,109	-5,089
Average % GDP 2009-2012	14.9	23.3	-8.4
Fiscal Year 2008	2,524	2,983	-459
Fiscal Year 2007	2,568	2,729	-161
Fiscal Year 2006	2,407	2,655	-248
Fiscal Year 2005	2,154	2,472	-318
Total 2005-2008	9,653	10,839	-1,186
Average % GDP 2005-2008	17.3	19.5	-2.1
Debt Held by the Public	Billions of Dollars	Percent of GDP
2005	4,592	35.6
2006	4,829	35.3
2007	5,035	35.1
2008	5,803	39.3
2009	7,545	52.3
2010	9,019	61.0
2011	10,128	65.8
2012	11,281	70.1

Source: http://www.fms.treas.gov/mts/index.html CBO (2012NovMBR). CBO (2011AugBEO); Office of Management and Budget 2011. Historical Tables. Budget of the US Government Fiscal Year 2011. Washington, DC: OMB; CBO. 2011JanBEO. Budget and Economic Outlook. Washington, DC, Jan. CBO. 2012AugBEO. Budget and Economic Outlook. Washington, DC, Aug 22. CBO. 2012Jan31. Historical budget data. Washington, DC, Jan 31. CBO. 2012NovCDR. Choices for deficit reduction. Washington, DC. Nov. CBO. 2013HBDFeb5. Historical budget data—February 2013 baseline projections. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Feb 5. CBO. 2013HBDFeb5. Historical budget data—February 2013 baseline projections. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Feb 5. Congressional Budget Office, 2013CBOHBDMay14. Historical budget data—May 2013. CBO, Washington, DC, May 14. Congressional Budget Office, 2013CBOHD, Historical budget data—August 2013. CBO, Washington, DC, Aug 12.

VB Japan. Table VB-BOJF provides the forecasts of economic activity and inflation in Japan by the majority of members of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, which is part of their Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130711a.pdf). For fiscal 2013, the forecast is of growth of GDP between 2.6 and 3.0 percent, with the all items CPI less fresh food of 0.6 to 1.0 percent. The critical difference is forecast of the CPI excluding fresh food of 2.8 to 3.6 percent in 2014 and 1.6 to 2.9 percent in 2015. The new monetary policy of the Bank of Japan aims to increase inflation to 2 percent. These forecasts are biannual in Apr and Oct. The Cabinet Office, Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan released on Jan 22, 2013, a “Joint Statement of the Government and the Bank of Japan on Overcoming Deflation and Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130122c.pdf) with the important change of increasing the inflation target of monetary policy from 1 percent to 2 percent:

“The Bank of Japan conducts monetary policy based on the principle that the policy shall be aimed at achieving price stability, thereby contributing to the sound development of the national economy, and is responsible for maintaining financial system stability. The Bank aims to achieve price stability on a sustainable basis, given that there are various factors that affect prices in the short run.

The Bank recognizes that the inflation rate consistent with price stability on a sustainable basis will rise as efforts by a wide range of entities toward strengthening competitiveness and growth potential of Japan's economy make progress. Based on this recognition, the Bank sets the price stability target at 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index.

Under the price stability target specified above, the Bank will pursue monetary easing and aim to achieve this target at the earliest possible time. Taking into consideration that it will take considerable time before the effects of monetary policy permeate the economy, the Bank will ascertain whether there is any significant risk to the sustainability of economic growth, including from the accumulation of financial imbalances.”

The Bank of Japan also provided explicit analysis of its view on price stability in a “Background note regarding the Bank’s thinking on price stability” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/data/rel130123a1.pdf http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130123a.htm/). The Bank of Japan also amended “Principal terms and conditions for the Asset Purchase Program” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130122a.pdf): “Asset purchases and loan provision shall be conducted up to the maximum outstanding amounts by the end of 2013. From January 2014, the Bank shall purchase financial assets and provide loans every month, the amount of which shall be determined pursuant to the relevant rules of the Bank.”

Financial markets in Japan and worldwide were shocked by new bold measures of “quantitative and qualitative monetary easing” by the Bank of Japan (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The objective of policy is to “achieve the price stability target of 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) at the earliest possible time, with a time horizon of about two years” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The main elements of the new policy are as follows:

1. Monetary Base Control. Most central banks in the world pursue interest rates instead of monetary aggregates, injecting bank reserves to lower interest rates to desired levels. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has shifted back to monetary aggregates, conducting money market operations with the objective of increasing base money, or monetary liabilities of the government, at the annual rate of 60 to 70 trillion yen. The BOJ estimates base money outstanding at “138 trillion yen at end-2012) and plans to increase it to “200 trillion yen at end-2012 and 270 trillion yen at end 2014” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
2. Maturity Extension of Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds. Purchases of bonds will be extended even up to bonds with maturity of 40 years with the guideline of extending the average maturity of BOJ bond purchases from three to seven years. The BOJ estimates the current average maturity of Japanese government bonds (JGB) at around seven years. The BOJ plans to purchase about 7.5 trillion yen per month (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130404d.pdf). Takashi Nakamichi, Tatsuo Ito and Phred Dvorak, wiring on “Bank of Japan mounts bid for revival,” on Apr 4, 2013, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323646604578401633067110420.html ), find that the limit of maturities of three years on purchases of JGBs was designed to avoid views that the BOJ would finance uncontrolled government deficits.
3. Seigniorage. The BOJ is pursuing coordination with the government that will take measures to establish “sustainable fiscal structure with a view to ensuring the credibility of fiscal management” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
4. Diversification of Asset Purchases. The BOJ will engage in transactions of exchange traded funds (ETF) and real estate investment trusts (REITS) and not solely on purchases of JGBs. Purchases of ETFs will be at an annual rate of increase of one trillion yen and purchases of REITS at 30 billion yen.

Table VB-BOJF, Bank of Japan, Forecasts of the Majority of Members of the Policy Board, % Year on Year

Fiscal Year Date of Forecast	Real GDP	CPI All Items Less Fresh Food	Excluding Effects of Consumption Tax Hikes
2013
Oct 2013	+2.6 to +3.0 [+2.7]	+0.6 to +1.0 [+0.7]
Jul 2013	+2.5 to +3.0 [+2.8]	+0.5 to +0.8 [+0.6]
2014
Oct 2013	+0.9 to +1.5 [+1.5]	+2.8 to +3.6 [+3.3]	+0.8 to +1.6 [+1.3]
Jul 2013	+0.8 to +1.5 [+1.3]	+2.7 to +3.6 [+3.3]	+0.7 to +1.6 [+1.3]
2015
Oct 2013	+1.3 to +1.8 [+1.5]	+1.6 to +2.9 [+2.6]	+0.9 to +2.2 [+1.9]
Jul 2013	+1.3 to +1.9 [+1.5]	+1.6 to +2.9 [+2.6]	+0.9 to +2.2 [+1.9]

Figures in brackets are the median of forecasts of Policy Board members

Source: Policy Board, Bank of Japan

http://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1310b.pdf

Private-sector activity in Japan expanded with the Markit Composite Output PMI^™ Index increasing from 53.2 in Sep to 56.0 in Oct, which is the highest reading in the six-year history of the survey (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4d6234f82c1546af972d0f1efd234068). Claudia Tillbrooke, Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds that the survey data suggest continuing strong growth of the economy of Japan (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4d6234f82c1546af972d0f1efd234068). The Markit Business Activity Index of Services increased from 53.0 in Sep to 55.3 in Oct (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4d6234f82c1546af972d0f1efd234068). Claudia Tillbrooke, Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds growth in services with strength in new orders and employment (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4d6234f82c1546af972d0f1efd234068). The Markit/JMMA Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI™), seasonally adjusted, increased from 52.5 in Sep to 54.2 in Oct, which is the highest level since May 2010 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/53c9d4335c3340399112967379f52a18). New orders grew at the highest rate in four years in anticipation of the increase in the sales tax next year. New export orders recovered from decline in Aug, growing at high rates in Sep and Oct with respondents pointing to yen devaluation. Claudia Tillbrooke, Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds improving manufacturing conditions at the highest levels in more than three years with impulse originating in new orders (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/53c9d4335c3340399112967379f52a18).Table JPY provides the country data table for Japan.

Table JPY, Japan, Economic Indicators

Historical GDP and CPI	1981-2010 Real GDP Growth and CPI Inflation 1981-2010 Blog 8/9/11 Table 26
Corporate Goods Prices	Aug ∆% +0.3 12 months ∆% 2.3 Blog 10/13/13
Consumer Price Index	Sep NSA ∆% 0.3; Sep 12 months NSA ∆% 1.1 Blog 10/27/13
Real GDP Growth	IIIQ2013 ∆%: 0.5 on IIQ2013;  IIIQ2013 SAAR 2.7; ∆% from quarter a year earlier: 1.2 % Blog 6/16/13 8/18/13 9/15/13 11/17/13
Employment Report	Sep Unemployed 2.58 million Change in unemployed since last year: minus 170 thousand Unemployment rate: 4.0 % Blog 11/3/13
All Industry Indices	Aug month SA ∆% 0.3 12-month NSA ∆% 0.9 Blog 10/27/13
Industrial Production	Sep SA month ∆%: 1.5 12-month NSA ∆% 5.4 Blog 11/3/13
Machine Orders	Total Sep ∆% 13.2 Private ∆%: -0.9 Sep ∆% Excluding Volatile Orders -2.1 Blog 11/17/13
Tertiary Index	Sep month SA ∆% -0.2 Sep 12 months NSA ∆% 1.1 Blog 11/17/13
Wholesale and Retail Sales	Sep 12 months: Total ∆%: 2.6 Wholesale ∆%: 2.4 Retail ∆%: -0.3 Blog 11/3/13
Family Income and Expenditure Survey	Sep 12-month ∆% total nominal consumption 5.2, real 3.7 Blog 11/3/13
Trade Balance	Exports Sep 12 months ∆%: 11.5 Imports Sep 12 months ∆% 16.5 Blog 11/3/13

Links to blog comments in Table JPY:

11/3/2013 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/global-financial-risk-world-inflation.html

10/27/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/twenty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html

10/13/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/imf-view-collapse-of-united-states.html

9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

The economy of Japan grew 0.5 percent in IIIQ2013 after 0.9 percent in IIQ2013 and 1.1 percent in IQ2013, seasonally adjusted, as shown in Table VB-1, incorporating the latest estimates and revisions. Japan’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IIIQ2012. IQ2012 GDP growth was revised to 1.2 percent; IIQGDP growth was revised to -0.2 percent; and IIIQ2012 growth was revised to -0.9 percent. The economy of Japan had already weakened in IVQ2010 when GDP fell revised 0.3 percent. As in other advanced economies, Japan’s recovery from the global recession has not been robust. GDP fell 2.0 percent in IQ2011 and fell again 0.8 percent in IIQ2011 as a result of the disruption of the tragic Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Recovery was robust in the first two quarters of 2010 but GDP grew at 1.5 percent in IIIQ2010 and fell 0.4 percent in IVQ2010. The deepest quarterly contractions in the recession were 3.3 percent in IVQ2008 and 4.0 percent in IQ2009.

Table VB-1, Japan, Real GDP ∆% Changes from the Previous Quarter Seasonally Adjusted ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IVQ
2013	1.1	0.9	0.5
2012	1.2	-0.2	-0.9	0.1
2011	-2.0	-0.8	2.6	0.3
2010	1.4	1.0	1.5	-0.4
2009	-4.0	1.7	0.1	1.8
2008	0.7	-1.2	-1.0	-3.3
2007	1.0	0.1	-0.3	0.8
2006	0.4	0.4	0.0	1.3
2005	0.2	1.3	0.4	0.2
2004	1.1	-0.1	0.2	-0.3
2003	-0.5	1.2	0.4	1.1
2002	-0.2	1.0	0.6	0.4
2001	0.7	-0.2	-1.1	-0.1
2000	1.7	0.2	-0.3	0.7
1999	-0.9	0.4	-0.1	0.4

Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html

The economy of Japan grew 0.5 percent in IIIQ2013 after 0.9 percent in IIQ2013 and 1.1 percent in IQ2013, seasonally adjusted, as shown in Table VB-1, incorporating the latest estimates and revisions. Japan’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IIIQ2012. IQ2012 GDP growth was revised to 1.2 percent; IIQGDP growth was revised to -0.2 percent; and IIIQ2012 growth was revised to -0.9 percent. The economy of Japan had already weakened in IVQ2010 when GDP fell revised 0.3 percent. As in other advanced economies, Japan’s recovery from the global recession has not been robust. GDP fell 2.0 percent in IQ2011 and fell again 0.8 percent in IIQ2011 as a result of the disruption of the tragic Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Recovery was robust in the first two quarters of 2010 but GDP grew at 1.5 percent in IIIQ2010 and fell 0.4 percent in IVQ2010. The deepest quarterly contractions in the recession were 3.3 percent in IVQ2008 and 4.0 percent in IQ2009.

Table VB-2, Japan, Contributions to Changes in Real GDP, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (SAAR), %

	GDP	PC	GFCF	Trade	PINV	GOVC
2013
I	4.3	2.1	0.8	1.6	-0.1	0.0
II	3.8	1.4	1.6	0.6	-0.5	0.6
III	1.9	0.2	1.8	-1.8	1.4	0.2
2012
I	5.1	2.2	-0.1	0.3	1.3	1.3
II	-0.8	0.2	1.1	-1.3	-0.8	0.1
III	-3.7	-0.7	-1.4	-2.1	0.1	0.3
IV	0.6	1.0	0.4	-0.6	-0.7	0.5
2011
I	-7.7	-3.7	-0.3	-1.2	-2.6	0.1
II	-3.0	2.2	-0.3	-4.3	-0.9	0.2
III	10.7	3.8	1.1	3.9	1.6	0.2
IV	1.0	1.4	3.8	-3.1	-1.2	0.2
2010
I	5.7	1.3	0.2	2.1	2.4	-0.5
II	4.0	0.1	0.8	0.1	2.0	1.1
III	6.1	3.3	0.8	0.5	1.3	0.2
IV	-1.6	-0.6	-0.7	-0.5	-0.2	0.3
2009
I	-15.2	-2.1	-1.9	-4.5	-7.5	0.8
II	6.9	4.1	-3.2	7.5	-2.0	0.6
III	0.5	0.2	-1.5	2.2	-1.4	1.0
IV	7.3	3.6	0.3	2.7	0.4	0.3
2008
I	2.6	1.4	0.5	1.1	-0.4	0.0
II	-4.7	-3.2	-2.3	0.5	1.1	-0.8
III	-3.9	-0.3	-1.0	0.0	-2.6	0.0
IV	-12.5	-2.8	-4.5	-11.5	5.7	0.3
2007
I	4.0	0.8	0.6	1.1	1.2	0.4
II	0.5	0.5	-1.6	0.8	0.1	0.5
III	-1.3	-0.8	-1.7	2.0	-0.6	-0.2
IV	3.4	0.3	0.3	1.4	0.9	0.6

Note: PC: Private Consumption; GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation; PINV: Private Inventory; Trade: Net Exports; GOVC: Government Consumption

Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html

Long-term economic growth in Japan significantly improved by increasing competitiveness in world markets. Net trade of exports and imports is an important component of the GDP accounts of Japan. Table VB-3 provides quarterly data for net trade, exports and imports of Japan. Net trade had strong positive contributions to GDP growth in Japan in all quarters from IQ2007 to IIQ2009 with exception of IVQ2008, IIIQ2008 and IQ2009. The US recession is dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) as beginning in IVQ2007 (Dec) and ending in IIQ2009 (Jun) (http://www.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html). Net trade contributions helped to cushion the economy of Japan from the global recession. Net trade deducted from GDP growth in seven of the nine quarters from IVQ2010 IQ2012. The only strong contribution of net trade was 3.9 percent in IIIQ2011. Net trade added 1.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2013 and 0.6 percentage points in IIQ2013 but deducted 1.8 percentage points in IIIQ2013. Private consumption assumed the role of driver of Japan’s economic growth but should moderate as in most mature economies.

Table VB-3, Japan, Contributions to Changes in Real GDP, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (SAAR), %

	Net Trade	Exports	Imports
2013
I	1.6	2.2	-0.7
II	0.6	1.7	-1.1
III	-1.8	-0.4	-1.5
2012
I	0.3	1.6	-1.3
II	-1.3	-0.3	-0.9
III	-2.1	-2.3	0.2
IV	-0.6	-1.8	1.2
2011
I	-1.2	-0.5	-0.7
II	-4.3	-4.7	0.4
III	3.9	5.8	-1.9
IV	-3.1	-1.9	-1.2
2010
I	2.1	3.4	-1.3
II	0.1	2.7	-2.6
III	0.5	1.4	-0.9
IV	-0.5	0.1	-0.6
2009
I	-4.5	-16.4	12.0
II	7.5	4.7	2.8
III	2.2	5.2	-3.1
IV	2.7	4.1	-1.4
2008
I	1.1	2.1	-1.0
II	0.5	-1.6	2.1
III	0.0	0.2	-0.1
IV	-11.5	-10.2	-1.3
2007
I	1.1	1.7	-0.5
II	0.8	1.6	-0.8
III	2.0	1.4	0.6
IV	1.4	2.1	-0.7

Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html

Japan’s percentage growth of GDP not seasonally adjusted in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier is shown in Table VB-4. Contraction of GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier extended over seven quarters from IIQ2008 through IVQ2009. Contraction was sharpest in IQ2009 with output declining 9.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Yearly quarterly rates of growth of Japan were relatively high for a mature economy through the decade with the exception of the contractions from IVQ2001 to IIQ2002 and after 2007. The Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011 caused flat GDP in IQ2011 relative to the same quarter a year earlier and decline of 1.5 percent in IIQ2011. GDP fell 0.6 percent in IIIQ2011 relative to a year earlier and fell 0.2 percent in IVQ2011 relative to a year earlier. Growth resumed with 3.4 percent in IQ2012 relative to a year earlier. Growth of 3.8 percent in IIQ2012 is largely caused by the low level in IIQ2011 resulting from the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2012 relative to a year earlier and 0.3 percent in IVQ2012 relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 0.3 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 1.1 percent in IIQ2013. Growth of 2.7 percent in IIIQ2013 relative to a year earlier is partly due to the decline of 0.8 percent in GDP in IIIQ2013. Japan faces the challenge of recovery from the devastation of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011 in an environment of declining world trade and bouts of risk aversion that cause appreciation of the Japanese yen that erode the country’s competitiveness in world markets.

Table VB-4, Japan, Real GDP ∆% Changes from Same Quarter Year Earlier, NSA ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IVQ
2013	0.3	1.1	2.7
2012	3.4	3.8	0.3	0.3
2011	0.0	-1.5	-0.6	-0.2
2010	4.9	4.4	6.0	3.3
2009	-9.4	-6.6	-5.6	-0.5
2008	1.4	-0.1	-0.6	-4.7
2007	2.8	2.3	2.0	1.6
2006	2.6	1.3	0.9	2.0
2005	0.4	1.4	1.5	1.9
2004	4.0	2.6	2.2	0.7
2003	1.7	1.8	1.5	1.8
2002	-1.6	-0.2	1.4	1.6
2001	1.6	0.9	0.0	-1.0
2000	2.7	2.4	2.2	1.8
1999	-0.3	0.1	-0.1	-0.5

Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html

The tertiary activity index of Japan decreased 0.2 percent SA in Sep 2013 and increased 1.1 percent NSA in the 12 months ending in Sep 2013, as shown in Table VB-5. The index is showing significant volatility with increases of 1.3 percent in Feb 2013 and 1.2 percent in May 2013 but decreases in multiple months. The tertiary activity index fell 5.2 percent in 2009, growing 1.3 percent in 2010, 0.1 percent in 2011 and 1.4 percent in 2012.

Table VB-5, Japan, Tertiary Activity Index, ∆%

	Month ∆% SA	12 Months ∆% NSA
Sep 2013	-0.2	1.1
Aug	0.6	0.7
Jul	-0.4	1.3
Jun	-0.7	0.5
May	1.2	1.7
Apr	-0.5	1.3
Mar	0.2	0.7
Feb	1.3	-1.6
Jan	-0.8	0.1
Dec 2012	0.2	-0.1
Nov	-0.1	1.0
Oct	0.2	1.3
Sep	0.0	0.1
Aug	0.2	0.6
Jul	-0.3	0.8
Jun	0.0	0.8
May	0.5	3.1
Apr	-0.2	2.4
Mar	-0.3	4.2
Feb	0.2	2.4
Jan	-0.8	0.3
Calendar Year
2012		1.4
2011		0.1
2010		1.3
2009		-5.2
2008		-1.0
2007		1.0
2006		1.8
2005		1.9
2004		1.8

Source: Japan, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI)

http://www.meti.go.jp/english/statistics/index.html

Month and 12-month rates of growth of the tertiary activity index of Japan and components in Sep 2013 are provided in Table VB-6. Electricity, gas, heat supply and water decreased 3.7 percent in Sep 2013 and decreased 3.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2013. Wholesale and retail trade increased 0.5 percent in the month of Sep and decreased 1.8 percent in 12 months. Information and communications increased 0.9 percent in Sep and increased 4.2 percent in 12 months.

Table VB-6, Japan, Tertiary Index and Components, Month and 12-Month Percentage Changes ∆%

Sep 2013	Weight	Month ∆% SA	12 Months ∆% NSA
Tertiary Index	10,000.0	-0.2	1.1
Electricity, Gas, Heat Supply & Water	372.9	-3.7	-3.7
Information & Communications	951.2	0.9	4.2
Wholesale & Retail Trade	2,641.2	0.5	-1.8
Finance & Insurance	971.1	1.1	6.5
Real Estate & Goods Rental & Leasing	903.4	1.3	0.9
Scientific Research, Professional & Technical Services	551.3	-4.9	4.2
Accommodations, Eating, Drinking	496.0	-0.4	-0.2
Living-Related, Personal, Amusement Services	552.7	-2.6	-0.3
Learning Support	116.9	0.6	-0.8
Medical, Health Care, Welfare	921.1	0.3	2.7
Miscellaneous ex Government	626.7	0.1	-2.1

Source: Japan, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI)

http://www.meti.go.jp/english/statistics/index.html

Japan’s total machinery orders seasonally adjusted in Table VB-7 rebounded in Sep 2013, increasing 13.2 percent seasonally adjusted. Private sector orders decreased 0.9 percent and 2.1 percent excluding volatile orders. Orders from overseas increased 12.1 percent and manufacturing orders 4.1 percent. Government orders increased 42.9 percent.

Table VB-7, Japan, Machinery Orders, Month ∆%, SA 

2013	Sep 13	Aug 13	Jul 13	Jun 13
Total	13.2	4.5	4.4	-14.3
Private Sector	-0.9	3.2	3.4	-6.0
Excluding Volatile Orders	-2.1	5.4	0.0	-2.7
Mfg	4.1	0.8	4.8	2.4
Non Mfg ex Volatile	-7.0	6.2	0.0	-17.5
Government	42.9	-8.3	12.9	-28.2
From Overseas	12.1	22.4	1.4	-16.7
Through Agencies	-4.2	2.4	-3.0	6.6

Note: Mfg: manufacturing

Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html

Total orders for machinery and total private-sector orders excluding volatile orders for Japan are shown in Chart VB-1 of Japan’s Economic and Social Research Institute at the Cabinet Office. The trend of private-sector orders excluding volatile orders was showing recovery from the drop after Mar 2011 because of the earthquake/tsunami. There was reversal of the trend of increase in total orders with recent decreases and an upward movement in the final data point. Fluctuations still prevent detecting longer-term trends but recovery is still evident from the global recession. There was a major setback by the declines in May 2012 shown in the final segment of Chart VB-1 with partial recovery in Jun 2012, decline again in Jul and Aug 2012 and rebound in total orders in Nov reversed in Dec but decline in orders excluding volatile segments with increase in Nov-Dec 2012. The final segment shows growth in Feb-Mar 2013 interrupted by decline in Apr 2013 followed by increase in May 2013. Orders fell again in Jun 2013, rebounding in Jul-Sep 2013.

Chart VB-1, Japan, Machinery Orders

Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html

Table VB-8 provides values and percentage changes from a year earlier of Japan’s machinery orders without seasonal adjustment. Total orders of JPY 2,962,723 million in Sep 2013 are divided between JPY 1,127,979 million overseas orders, or 38.1 percent of the total, and domestic orders of JPY 1,736,402 million, or 58.6 percent of the total, with orders through agencies of JPY 98,342 million, or 3.3 percent of the total. Orders through agencies are not in Table VB-8 because of the minor value and appear only in the note to the table. Twelve-month percentages changes in Sep 2013 rebounded with increases of 30.3 percent for total orders, 18.4 percent for domestic orders and 11.4 percent for orders excluding volatile components. Overseas orders rose 57.4 percent in 12 months partly because of yen devaluation.

Table VB-8, Japan, Machinery Orders, 12 Months ∆% and Million Yen, Original Series  

	Total	Overseas	Domestic	Private ex Volatile
Value Sep 2013	2,962,723	1,127,979	1,736,402	997,844
% Total	100.0	38.1	58.6	33.7
Value Sep 2012	2,272,936	716,487	1,466,973	895,574
% Total	100.0	31.5	64.5	39.4
12-month ∆%	30.3	57.4	18.4	11.4
Sep 2013	30.3	57.4	18.4	11.4
Aug 2013	25.9	41.8	17.1	10.3
Jul 2013	5.3	4.4	6.9	6.5
Jun 2013	2.7	0.1	4.1	4.9
May 2013	18.1	17.1	20.8	16.5
Apr 2013	-4.3	6.7	-9.9	-1.1
Mar 2013	11.5	27.5	3.3	2.4
Feb 2013	-14.8	-21.0	-10.7	-11.3
Jan 2013	-24.8	-36.7	-11.8	-9.7
Dec 2012	-12.5	-24.1	-3.3	-3.4
Nov 2012	-8.6	-9.6	-8.5	0.3
Oct 2012	-6.9	-12.8	-2.6	1.2
Sep 2012	-7.8	-18.4	-1.8	-7.8
Aug 2012	-18.6	-31.1	-10.2	-6.1
Jul 2012	2.6	-1.9	3.2	1.7
Jun 2012	-10.9	-11.3	-12.4	-9.9
May 2012	-6.8	-7.0	-8.6	1.0
Apr 2012	7.5	-9.6	23.0	6.6
Mar 2012	8.1	-10.0	19.0	-1.1
Feb 2012	-9.3	-8.9	-11.2	8.9
Jan 2012	9.8	18.3	0.5	5.7
Dec 2011	0.8	12.6	-8.5	6.3
Nov 2011	11.0	8.0	13.5	12.5
Oct 2011	-6.8	-15.6	-1.0	1.5
Dec 2010	9.4	3.5	14.1	-0.6
Dec 2009	1.8	0.4	3.6	-1.9
Dec 2008	-23.3	-29.4	-17.4	-24.7
Dec 2007	1.3	9.8	-4.3	-6.4
Dec 2006	0.8	0.9	-0.1	0.1

Note: Total machinery orders = overseas + domestic demand + orders through agencies. Orders through agencies in Sep 2013 were JPY 98,342 million or 3.3 percent of the total and JPY 89,476 or 3.9 percent of the total in Sep 2012, and are not shown in the table. The data are the original numbers without any adjustments and differ from the seasonally adjusted data.

Source: Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office

http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/index-e.html

VC China. China estimates an index of nonmanufacturing purchasing managers on the basis of a sample of 1200 nonmanufacturing enterprises across the country (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Table CIPMNM provides this index and components. The index fell from 58.0 in Mar 2012 to 55.2 in May but climbed to 56.7 in Jun, which is lower than 58.0 in Mar and 57.3 in Feb but higher than in any other of the months in 2012. In Jul 2012 the index fell marginally to 55.6 and then to 56.3 in Aug and 53.7 in Sep but rebounded to 55.5 in Oct and 55.6 in Nov 2012. Improvement continued with 56.1 in Dec 2012 and 56.2 in Jan 2013, declining marginally to 54.5 in Feb 2013 and 55.6 in Mar 2013. The index fell to 54.5 in Apr 2013, 54.3 in May 2013 and 53.9 in Jun 2013, rebounding to 54.1 in Jul 2013. The index eased to 53.9 in Aug 2013. The index increased to 55.4 in Sep 2013 and 56.3 in Oct 2013.

Table CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted

	Total Index	New Orders	Interm. Input Prices	Subs Prices	Exp
Oct 2013	56.3	51.6	56.1	51.4	60.5
Sep	55.4	53.4	56.7	50.6	60.1
Aug	53.9	50.9	57.1	51.2	62.9
Jul	54.1	50.3	58.2	52.4	63.9
Jun	53.9	50.3	55.0	50.6	61.8
May	54.3	50.1	54.4	50.7	62.9
Apr	54.5	50.9	51.1	47.6	62.5
Mar	55.6	52.0	55.3	50.0	62.4
Feb	54.5	51.8	56.2	51.1	62.7
Jan	56.2	53.7	58.2	50.9	61.4
Dec 2012	56.1	54.3	53.8	50.0	64.6
Nov	55.6	53.2	52.5	48.4	64.6
Oct	55.5	51.6	58.1	50.5	63.4
Sep	53.7	51.8	57.5	51.3	60.9
Aug	56.3	52.7	57.6	51.2	63.2
Jul	55.6	53.2	49.7	48.7	63.9
Jun	56.7	53.7	52.1	48.6	65.5
May	55.2	52.5	53.6	48.5	65.4
Apr	56.1	52.7	57.9	50.3	66.1
Mar	58.0	53.5	60.2	52.0	66.6
Feb	57.3	52.7	59.0	51.2	63.8
Jan	55.7	52.2	58.2	51.1	65.3

Notes: Interm.: Intermediate; Subs: Subscription; Exp: Business Expectations

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart CIPMNM provides China’s nonmanufacturing purchasing managers’ index. There was slowing of the general index in Apr 2012 after the increase in Jan-Mar 2012 and further decline to 55.2 in May 2012 but increase to 56.7 in Jun 2012 with marginal decline to 55.6 in Jul 2012 and 56.3 in Aug 2012 and sharper drop to 53.7 in Sep 2012, rebounding to 55.5 in Oct 2012, 55.6 in Nov 2012, 56.1 in Dec 2012 and 55.6 in Mar 2013. The index fell again to 54.5 in Apr 2013, 54.3 in May 2013 and 53.9 in Jun 2013, rebounding to 54.1 in Jul 2013. The index stabilized at 53.9 in Aug 2013 climbing to 55.4 in Sep 2013 and 56.3 in Oct 2013.

Chart CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Table CIPMMFG provides the index of purchasing managers of manufacturing seasonally adjusted of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The general index (IPM) rose from 50.5 in Jan 2012 to 53.3 in Apr and declined to 50.1 in Jul and to the contraction zone at 49.2 in Aug and 49.8 in Sep, climbing above 50.0 to 50.2 in Oct, 50.6 in Nov-Dec 2012, 50.9 in Mar 2013 and 50.6 in Apr 2013. The index increased to 50.8 in May 2013, falling to 50.1 in Jun 2013 and rebounding to 50.3 in Jul 2013. The index increased to 51.0 in Aug 2013 and 51.1 in Sep 2013 with marginal improvement to 51.4 in Oct 2013. The index of new orders (NOI) fell from 54.5 in Apr 2012 to 49.0 in Jul and 48.7 in Aug, climbing above 50.0, 51.2 in Nov 2012-Dec 2012, 52.3 in Mar 2013 and 51.7 in Apr 2013. The index of new orders increased to 51.8 in May 2013, falling to 50.4 in Jun 2013 and 50.6 in Jul 2013. The index of new orders increased to 52.4 in Aug 2013 and 52.8 in Sep 2013 with marginal decline to 52.5 in Oct 2013. The index of employment also fell from 51.0 in Apr to 49.1 in Aug and further down to 48.7 in Nov 2012, 49.9 in Dec 2012, 49.8 in Mar 2013 and 49.0 in Apr 2013. The index of employment fell to 48.8 in May 2013 and 48.7 in Jun 2013, increasing to 49.1 in Jul 2013. The index of employment increased to 49.3 in Aug 2013 and fell to 49.1 in Sep 2013 with marginal improvement to 49.2 in Oct 2013.

Table CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted

	IPM	PI	NOI	INV	EMP	SDEL
Oct 2013	51.4	54.4	52.5	48.6	49.2	50.8
Sep	51.1	52.9	52.8	48.5	49.1	50.8
Aug	51.0	52.6	52.4	48.0	49.3	50.4
Jul	50.3	52.4	50.6	47.6	49.1	50.1
Jun	50.1	52.0	50.4	47.4	48.7	50.3
May	50.8	53.3	51.8	47.6	48.8	50.8
Apr	50.6	52.6	51.7	47.5	49.0	50.8
Mar	50.9	52.7	52.3	47.5	49.8	51.1
Feb	50.1	51.2	50.1	49.5	47.6	48.3
Jan	50.4	51.3	51.6	50.1	47.8	50.0
Dec 2012	50.6	52.0	51.2	47.3	49.0	48.8
Nov	50.6	52.5	51.2	47.9	48.7	49.9
Oct	50.2	52.1	50.4	47.3	49.2	50.1
Sep	49.8	51.3	49.8	47.0	48.9	49.5
Aug	49.2	50.9	48.7	45.1	49.1	50.0
Jul	50.1	51.8	49.0	48.5	49.5	49.0
Jun	50.2	52.0	49.2	48.2	49.7	49.1
May	50.4	52.9	49.8	45.1	50.5	49.0
Apr	53.3	57.2	54.5	48.5	51.0	49.6
Mar	53.1	55.2	55.1	49.5	51.0	48.9
Feb	51.0	53.8	51.0	48.8	49.5	50.3
Jan	50.5	53.6	50.4	49.7	47.1	49.7

IPM: Index of Purchasing Managers; PI: Production Index; NOI: New Orders Index; EMP: Employed Person Index; SDEL: Supplier Delivery Time Index

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

China estimates the manufacturing index of purchasing managers on the basis of a sample of 820 enterprises (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Chart CIPMMFG provides the manufacturing index of purchasing managers. There is deceleration from 51.2 in Sep 2011 to marginal contraction at 49.0 in Nov 2011. Manufacturing activity recovered to 53.3 in Apr 2012 but then declined to 50.4 in May 2012 and 50.1 in Jun 2012, which is the lowest in a year with exception of contraction at 49.0 in Nov 2011. The index then fell to contraction at 49.2 in Aug 2012 and improved to 49.8 in Sep with movement to 50.2 in Oct 2012, 50.6 in Nov 2012, 50.9 in Mar 2013 and 50.6 in Apr 2013 above the neutral zone of 50.0. The index increased to 50.8 in May 2013 and fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013, increasing to 50.3 in Jul 2013. The index increased to 51.0 in Aug 2013, 51.1 in Sep 2013 and 51.4 in Oct 2013.

Chart CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Cumulative growth of China’s GDP in IIIQ2013 relative to the same period in 2012 was 7.7 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDP. Secondary industry accounts for 45.3 percent of GDP in IIIQ2013. In IIQ2013, industry alone accounts for 38.5 percent in IIQ2013 and construction with the remaining 6.8 percent in the first three quarters of 2012. Tertiary industry accounts for 45.5 percent of cumulative GDP in IIIQ2013 and primary industry for 9.2 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The bottom block of Table VC-GDP provides quarter-on-quarter growth rates of GDP and their annual equivalent. China’s GDP growth decelerated significantly from annual equivalent 10.8 percent in IIQ2011 to 7.4 percent in IVQ2011 and 5.7 percent in IQ2012, rebounding to 9.1 percent in IIQ2012, 8.2 percent in IIIQ2012 and 7.8 percent in IVQ2012. Annual equivalent growth in IQ2013 fell to 6.1 percent and to 7.8 percent in IIQ2013, rebounding to 9.1 percent in IIIQ2013.

Table VC-GDP, China, Quarterly Growth of GDP, Current CNY 100 Million and Inflation Adjusted ∆%

Cumulative GDP IIIQ2013	Value Current CNY Billion	2013 Year-on-Year Constant Prices ∆%
GDP	38,676.2	7.7
Primary Industry	3,566.9	3.4
Farming	3,566.9	3.4
Secondary Industry	17,511.8	7.8
Industry	14,900.0	7.6
Construction	2,611.8	9.7
Tertiary Industry	17,597.5	8.4
Transport, Storage, Post	21,449.9	7.2
Wholesale, Retail Trades	3,056.7	10.4
Hotel & Catering Services	772.7	5.1
Financial Intermediation	2,623.8	10.4
Real Estate	2,454.6	7.3
Other	6,094.8	7.6
Growth in Quarter Relative to Prior Quarter	∆% on Prior Quarter	∆% Annual Equivalent
2013
IIIQ2013	2.2	9.1
IIQ2013	1.9	7.8
IQ2013	1.5	6.1
2012
IVQ2012	1.9	7.8
IIIQ2012	2.0	8.2
IIQ2012	2.2	9.1
IQ2012	1.4	5.7
2011
IVQ2011	1.8	7.4
IIIQ2011	2.2	9.1
IIQ2011	2.6	10.8
IQ2011	2.3	9.5

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Growth of China’s GDP in IIIQ2013 relative to the same period in 2012 was 7.8 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDPA. Secondary industry accounts for 45.3 percent of GDP of which industry alone for 38.5 percent in cumulative IIIQ2013 and construction with the remaining 6.8 percent in the first three quarters of 2013. Tertiary industry accounts for 45.5 percent of GDP in the cumulative to IIIQ2013 and primary industry for 9.2 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). GDP growth decelerated from 12.1 percent in IQ2010 and 11.2 percent in IIQ2010 to 7.7 percent in IQ2013, 7.5 percent in IIQ2013 and 7.8 percent in IIIQ2013.

Table VC-GDPA, China, Growth Rate of GDP, ∆% Relative to a Year Earlier and ∆% Relative to Prior Quarter

	IQ 2013	IIQ 2013	IIIQ 2013
GDP	7.7	7.5	7.8
Primary Industry	3.4	3.0	3.4
Secondary Industry	7.8	7.6	7.8
Tertiary Industry	8.3	8.3	8.4
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.5	1.9	2.2
	IQ 2011	IIQ 2011	IIIQ 2011	IVQ 2011	IQ  2012	IIQ 2012	IIIQ 2012	IVQ 2012
GDP	9.7	9.5	9.1	8.9	8.1	7.6	7.4	7.9
Primary Industry	3.5	3.2	3.8	4.5	3.8	4.3	4.2	4.5
Secondary Industry	11.1	11.0	10.8	10.6	9.1	8.3	8.1	8.1
Tertiary Industry	9.1	9.2	9.0	8.9	7.5	7.7	7.9	8.1
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	2.3	2.6	2.2	1.8	1.4	2.2	2.0	1.9
	IQ 2010	IIQ 2010	IIIQ 2010	IVQ 2010
GDP	12.1	11.2	10.7	12.1
Primary Industry	3.8	3.6	4.0	3.8
Secondary Industry	14.5	13.3	12.6	14.5
Tertiary Industry	10.5	9.9	9.7	10.5

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart VC-GDP of the National Bureau of Statistics of China provides annual value and growth rates of GDP. China’s GDP growth in 2012 is still high at 7.8 percent but at the lowest rhythm in five years

Chart VC-GDP, China, Gross Domestic Product, Million Yuan and ∆%, 2008-2012

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) compiled by Markit (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/6c331e2e4a1e420e84c67a8d51b349f6) is moving at faster pace. The overall Flash HSBC China Manufacturing PMI^™ increased from 50.2 in Sep to 50.9 in Sep, which is moderately above the contraction frontier of 50.0, while the Flash HSBC China Manufacturing Output Index increased from 50.2 in Sep to 51.0 in Sep, moving into moderate expansion territory. Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds that the flash manufacturing index moved to the highest reading in seven months with potential for recovery of growth in IVQ2013 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/6c331e2e4a1e420e84c67a8d51b349f6). The HSBC China Services PMI^™, compiled by Markit, shows marginal improvement in business activity in China with the HSBC Composite Output, combining manufacturing and services, increasing from 51.2 in Sep to 51.8 in Oct, indicating moderate growth (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/59995475378d43528ffca417425078de). Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds support of manufacturing combined with services (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/59995475378d43528ffca417425078de). The HSBC Business Activity index increased from 52.4 in Sep to 52.6 in Oct (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/59995475378d43528ffca417425078de). Hongbin Ku, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds strength in services with recovery of manufacturing and improving labor markets (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/59995475378d43528ffca417425078de). The HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™), compiled by Markit, increased to 50.9 in Oct from 50.2 in Sep, indicating marginally improving manufacturing in China (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/3308d2cd1c824ec1a9842f2fbc17645b). New export orders posted the strongest increase in about a year with demand from the US. Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds China moving in the path of moderate recovery of growth (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/3308d2cd1c824ec1a9842f2fbc17645b). Table CNY provides the country data table for China.

Table CNY, China, Economic Indicators

Price Indexes for Industry	Oct 12-month ∆%: minus 1.5 Oct month ∆%: 0.0 Blog 11/17/13
Consumer Price Index	Oct month ∆%: 0.1 Oct 12 months ∆%: 3.2 Blog 11/17/13
Value Added of Industry	Oct month ∆%: 0.86 Jan-Oct 2013/Jan-Oct 2012 ∆%: 9.7 Oct 12-Month ∆%: 10.3 Blog 11/17/13
GDP Growth Rate	Year IIIQ2013 ∆%: 7.8 Quarter IIQ2013 AE ∆%: 9.1 Blog 10/27/13
Investment in Fixed Assets	Total Jan-Oct 2013 ∆%: 20.1 Real estate development: 19.2 Blog 11/17/13
Retail Sales	Oct month ∆%: 1.19 Oct 12 month ∆%: 13.3 Jan-Oct ∆%: 13.0 Blog 11/17/13
Trade Balance	Oct balance $31.1 billion Exports 12M ∆% 5.6 Imports 12M ∆% 7.6 Cumulative Oct: $200.46 billion Blog 11/10/13

Links to blog comments in Table CNY:

11/10/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/global-financial-risk-mediocre-united.html

10/27/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/twenty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html

Cumulative and 12-months rates of value added of industry in China are provided in Table VC-1. Industry’s value added increased 9.7 percent in Jan-Oct 2013 relative to the same period a year earlier and 10.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2013. Value added in total industry increased 9.6 in Jan-Sep 2013 relative to a year earlier and 10.2 percent in 12 months. Value added in total industry in Jan-Aug 2013 increased 9.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Heavy industry (manufacturing) had been the driver of growth with a cumulative rate of 10.0 percent relative to a year earlier in Jan-Mar 2012 that declined to 10.5 percent in Jan-Apr 2012 relative to the same period a year earlier and further down to 10.1 percent in Jan-Jun 2012, 9.9 percent in Jan-Jul 2012, 9.8 percent in Jan-Aug 2012, 9.7 percent in Jan-Sep 2012, 9.7 percent in Jan-Oct 2012, 9.8 percent in Jan-Nov 2012, 9.9 percent in Jan-Dec 2012, 10.2 percent in Jan-Feb 2013, 9.8 percent in Jan-Mar 2013, 9.7 percent in Jan-Apr 2013, 9.7 percent in Jan-May 2013, 10.0 percent in Jan-Jun 2013, 10.1 percent in Jan-Jul 2013 and 10.2 percent in Jan-Aug 2013. The rate for heavy industry increased marginally to 10.3 percent in Jan-Sep 2013. Light industry (mining and quarrying) grew 6.7 percent in Jan-Sep 2013 relative to a year earlier. Growth of total industry decelerated from cumulative 14.4 percent in Jan-Mar 2011 to 9.6 percent in Jan-Sep 2013.

Table VC-1, China, Growth Rate of Value Added of Industry ∆%

	Industry	Light Industry	Heavy Industry	State Owned	Joint-Stock
2013
Jan-Oct	9.7	6.5	10.4	6.5	11.0
12M Oct	10.3	4.3	11.4	8.4	11.1
Jan-Sep	9.6	6.7	10.3	6.3	11.0
12M Sep	10.2	4.9	11.1	7.8	11.1
Jan-Aug	9.5	6.9	10.2	6.1	11.0
12M Aug	10.4	5.8	10.9	9.5	11.7
Jan-Jul	9.4	7.1	10.1	5.6	10.9
12M Jun	9.7	5.5	10.5	8.1	11.1
Jan-Jun	9.3	7.3	10.0	5.2	10.9
12M Jun	8.9	5.8	9.6	6.3	10.5
Jan-May	9.4	8.5	9.7	4.9	11.0
12M May	9.2	8.0	9.8	4.4	10.7
Jan-Apr	9.4	8.6	9.7	4.9	11.1
12 M Apr	9.3	8.5	9.6	4.3	10.9
Jan-Mar	9.5	8.7	9.8	5.2	11.3
12 M Mar	8.9	8.2	9.1	4.3	11.0
Jan-Feb	9.9	9.1	10.2	5.8	11.4
2012
Jan-Dec 2012	10.0	10.1	9.9	6.4	11.8
12 M Dec	10.3	9.6	10.6	8.0	12.1
Jan-Nov	10.0	10.2	9.8	6.3	11.8
12 M Nov	10.1	9.2	10.5	7.2	11.8
Jan-Oct	10.0	10.3	9.7	6.4	11.8
12 M Oct	9.6	9.1	9.7	7.0	11.7
Jan-Sep	10.0	10.4	9.7	6.3	11.8
12 M  Sep	9.2	9.0	9.3	6.3	11.0
Jan-Aug	10.1	10.5	9.8	6.3	15.4
12 M Aug	8.9	8.6	9.0	5.3	14.3
Jan-Jul	10.3	10.8	9.9	6.6	12.1
12 M Jul	9.2	10.1	8.8	4.8	10.9
Jan-Jun	10.5	11.1	10.1	7.0	12.4
12 M Jun	9.5	9.0	9.6	6.5	11.5
Jan-May	10.7	11.5	10.3	6.7	12.4
12 M May	9.6	9.1	9.8	6.6	11.0
Jan-Apr	11.0	12.3	10.5	6.6	12.9
12 M Apr	9.3	10.3	8.9	4.3	10.7
Jan-Mar	11.6	13.2	11.0	7.2	13.8
12 M Mar	11.9	13.9	11.2	8.0	13.7
Jan-Feb	11.4	12.7	10.9	7.3	13.9
2011
Jan-Dec	13.9	13.0	14.3	9.9	15.8
12 M Dec	12.8	12.6	13.0	9.2	14.7
Jan-Nov	14.0	13.0	14.4	9.9	16.0
12 M Nov	12.4	12.4	12.4	7.8	14.4
Jan-Oct	14.1	13.0	14.5	10.1	9.1
12 M Oct	13.2	12.1	13.7	8.9	15.1
Jan-Sep	14.2	13.1	14.6	10.4	16.1
12 M Sep	13.8	12.8	14.3	9.9	16.0
Jan-Aug	14.2	13.1	14.6	10.4	16.1
12 M Aug	13.5	13.4	13.5	9.4	15.5
Jan-Jul	14.3
12 M Jul	14.0	12.8	14.5	9.5
Jan-Jun	14.3	13.1	14.7	10.7	19.7
12 M Jun	15.1	13.9	15.6	10.7	20.8
Jan-May	14.0	12.9	14.4	10.7	19.3
12 M May	13.3	12.9	13.5	8.9	18.7
Jan-Apr	14.2	12.9	14.7	11.2	19.5
12 M Apr	13.4	11.9	14.0	10.4	18.0
Jan-Mar	14.4	13.1	14.9	11.4	19.8
12 M Mar	14.8	12.8	15.6	12.9	19.2
12 M Feb	14.9	13.1	15.6	10.5	21.7
Jan-Feb	14.1	13.3	14.4	10.6	20.3

*After Jun 2013 Heavy Industry is Manufacturing and Light Industry is Mining and Quarrying

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart VC-1 provides 12-month percentage changes of value added of industry in 2012 and from Jan to Jul 2013. Growth rates of value added of industry in the first five months of 2010 were higher than in 2011 as would be expected in an earlier phase of recovery from the global recession. Growth rates have converged in the second half of 2011 to lower percentages with further decline into 2012 to single digit percentage changes, 10.3 percent in Dec 2012, 8.9 percent in Mar 2013 and 9.3 percent in Apr 2013. The growth rate eased to 9.2 percent in May 2013 and 8.9 percent in Jun 2013, rebounding to 9.7 percent in Jul 2013. The rate of growth increased to 10.4 percent in Aug 2013 and fell marginally to 10.2 percent in Sep 2013. There is recovery to 10.3 percent in Oct 2013.

Chart VC-1, China, Growth Rate of Total Value Added of Industry, 12-Month ∆%

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Yearly rates of growth for the past 12 months and cumulative relative to the earlier year of various segments of industrial production in China are provided in Table VC-2. Rates from Jan to Dec 2011 relative to the same period a year earlier fluctuated but remained mostly above 10 percent with the exception of motor vehicles and crude oil. There is deceleration in Jan-Dec 2012 of percentage change with no segment showing growth exceeding 10 percent with exception of 12-month growth of 13.5 percent for pig iron and 16.7 percent for nonferrous metals. In Jan-Sep 2013, many segments grew at rates exceeding or around 10 percent with exception of electricity at 6.8 percent, crude oil at 4.2 percent and pig iron at 6.9 percent. Electricity fell from growth of 16.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2011 to 0.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2012, rebounding to 4.8 percent in Aug 2012 but declining to 1.5 percent in Sep 2012, increasing to 3.9 percent in Oct 2012, 7.9 percent in Nov 2012 and 7.6 percent in Dec 2012. Electricity grew 6.8 percent in Jan-Jul 2013 relative to a year earlier and increased 8.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2013. Electricity output increased 7.0 percent in Jan-Oct 2013 relative to a year earlier and 8.4 percent in 12 months ending in Oct 2013. Auto production jumped to 17.2 percent in Jan-Oct 2013 relative to a year earlier and 25.5 percent in 12 months ending in Oct 2013.

Table VC-2, China, Industrial Production Operation ∆%

	Elec- tricity	Pig Iron	Cement	Crude Oil	Non- ferrous Metals	Autos
2013
Jan-Oct	7.0	6.5	9.0	4.1	10.3	17.2
12M Oct	8.4	7.7	8.9	3.1	12.9	25.5
Jan-Sep	6.8	6.9	8.9	4.2	9.8	15.3
12M Sep	8.2	11.2	6.4	-1.2	10.1	17.5
Jan-Aug	6.4	6.6	9.2	4.7	9.7	15.1
12M Aug	13.4	11.1	8.2	5.5	5.7	14.8
Jan-Jul	5.2	6.0	9.6	4.5	10.3	15.1
12 M Jul	8.1	5.0	9.1	7.1	9.8	15.4
Jan-Jun	4.4	5.7	9.7	4.1	10.0	15.2
12 M Jun	6.0	2.9	8.8	10.8	6.7	13.5
Jan-May	4.0	10.8	8.9	2.9	10.9	15.4
12 M May	4.1	11.3	8.5	2.4	7.5	15.7
Jan-Apr	3.8	10.5	8.4	3.2	11.4	15.4
12 M Apr	6.2	8.1	8.7	2.5	10.3	18.3
Jan-Mar	2.9	12.3	8.2	4.3	10.6	13.5
12 M Mar	2.1	9.2	6.9	5.5	9.9	12.4
Jan-Feb	3.4	14.2	10.8	3.0	13.5	12.4
2012
Jan-Dec	4.7	7.7	7.4	3.7	9.3	6.3
12 M Dec	7.6	13.5	5.4	8.4	16.7	5.3
Jan-Nov	4.4	7.2	7.5	3.2	8.4	6.5
12 M Nov	7.9	16.5	9.4	9.1	15.2	3.9
Jan-Oct	3.9	6.3	6.7	2.6	7.7	6.9
12 M Oct	6.4	11.7	11.5	6.7	14.0	3.8
Jan-Sep	3.6	5.7	6.7	2.2	7.1	7.3
12 M Sep	1.5	4.9	12.0	7.0	7.1	6.3
Jan-Aug	3.8	-0.5	8.7	2.5	13.8	10.4
12 M Aug	4.8	2.6	5.9	-0.4	13.8	9.7
Jan-Jul	3.8	6.1	5.3	1.6	6.7	7.4
12M Jul	2.1	6.5	6.1	1.1	4.1	12.3
Jan-Jun	3.7	6.1	5.5	1.7	6.7	6.7
12 M Jun	0.0	6.7	6.5	-0.6	5.8	13.8
Jan-May	4.7	6.3	5.0	2.2	5.1	6.2
12 M May	2.7	6.3	4.3	0.7	6.6	18.5
Jan-Apr	5.0	6.2	5.5	2.9	4.6	3.1
12 M Apr	0.7	7.9	4.9	-0.3	2.3	10.7
Jan-Mar	7.1	6.5	7.3	3.1	5.8	0.0
12 M Mar	7.2	10.2	7.9	2.0	3.3	5.1
Jan-Feb	7.1	4.6	4.8	4.0	8.4	-1.8
2011
Jan-Dec	12.0	8.4	16.1	4.9	10.6	3.0
12 M Dec	9.7	3.7	7.0	4.0	13.2	-6.5
Jan-Nov	12.0	13.1	17.2	5.3	10.2	3.9
12 M Nov	8.5	7.8	11.2	3.2	8.2	-1.3
Jan-Oct	12.3	13.7	18.0	5.4	10.4	5.2
12 M Oct	9.3	13.4	16.5	-0.9	3.7	1.3
Jan-Sep	12.7	13.9	18.1	6.0	11.2	5.5
12 M Sep	11.5	18.8	15.7	1.5	13.9	2.5
Jan-Aug	13.0	13.1	18.4	6.6		4.7
12 M Aug	10.0	12.9	12.8	4.5	15.6	9.5
Jan-Jul	13.3	13.0	19.2	6.9	9.9	4.0
12 M Jul	13.2	14.9	16.8	5.9	9.8	-1.3
12 M Jun	16.2	14.8	19.9	-0.7	9.8	3.6
12 M May	12.1	10.6	19.2	6.0	14.2	-1.9
12 M Apr	11.7	8.3	22.4	6.8	6.1	-1.6
12 M Mar	14.8	13.7	29.8	8.0	11.6	9.9
12 M Feb	11.7	14.5	9.1	10.9	14.4	10.3
12 M Jan	5.1	3.5	16.4	12.2	1.4	23.9
12 M Dec 2010	5.6	4.6	17.3	10.3	-1.9	27.6

M: month

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Monthly growth rates of industrial production in China are provided in Table VC-3. Monthly rates have fluctuated around 1 percent. Jan and Feb 2012 are somewhat weaker but there was improvement to 1.25 percent in Mar 2012. The rate of 0.33 percent in Apr 2012 is the lowest in the monthly series from Feb 2011 to Sep 2013. Monthly sales growth remained below 1 percent in all the eighteen months from Jan 2012 to Oct 2013 with the exception of Mar 2012. Value added in industry increased 0.73 percent in Sep 2013 and 0.86 percent in Oct 2013.

Table VC-3, China, Industrial Production Operation, Month ∆%

2011	Month ∆%
Feb	0.93
Mar	0.99
Apr	1.32
May	0.79
Jun	1.30
Jul	0.82
Aug	0.85
Sep	0.95
Oct	0.71
Nov	0.68
Dec	0.94
Jan 2012	0.50
Feb	0.61
Mar	1.25
Apr	0.33
May	0.89
Jun	0.83
Jul	0.59
Aug	0.61
Sep	0.89
Oct	0.76
Nov	0.83
Dec	0.84
Jan 2013	0.62
Feb	0.83
Mar	0.72
Apr	0.93
May	0.70
Jun	0.75
Jul	0.89
Aug	0.93
Sep	0.73
Oct	0.86

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Table VC-4 provides cumulative growth of investment in fixed assets in China in 2011 relative to 2010, Jan-Dec 2012 and Jan-Oct 2013 relative to a year earlier. Total fixed investment had grown at a high rate fluctuating around 25 percent and fixed investment in real estate development has grown at rates in excess of 30 percent but rates have declined significantly to still quite high percentages. In Jan-Oct 2013, investment in fixed assets in China grew 20.1 percent relative to a year earlier and 19.2 percent in real estate development. There was slight deceleration in the final two months of 2011 that continued into Jan-Oct 2013.

Table VC-4, China, Investment in Fixed Assets ∆% Relative to a Year Earlier

	Total	State	Real Estate Development
Jan-Oct 2013	20.1	17.1	19.2
Jan-Sep	20.2	17.6	19.7
Jan-Aug	20.3	NA	19.3
Jan-Jul	20.1	17.5	20.5
Jan-Jun	20.1	17.5	20.3
Jan-May	20.4	17.7	20.6
Jan-Apr	20.6	18.1	21.1
Jan-Mar	20.9	18.7	20.2
Jan-Feb	21.2	16.9	22.8
Jan-Dec 2012	20.6	14.7	16.2
Jan-Nov	20.7	14.5	16.7
Jan-Oct	20.7	14.2	15.4
Jan-Sep	20.5	13.6	15.4
Jan-Aug	20.2	12.9	15.6
Jan-Jul	20.4	12.6	15.4
Jan-Jun	20.4	13.8	16.6
Jan-May	20.1	10.0	18.5
Jan-Apr	20.2	9.5	18.7
Jan-Mar	20.9	9.0	23.5
Jan-Feb	21.5	8.8	27.8
Jan-Dec 2011	23.8	11.1	27.9
Jan-Nov	24.5	11.7	29.9
Jan-Oct	24.9	12.4	31.1
Jan-Sep	24.9	12.7	32.0
Jan-Aug	25.0	12.1	33.2
Jan-Jul	25.4	13.6	33.6
Jan-Jun	25.6	14.6	32.9
Jan-May	25.8	14.9	34.6
Jan-Apr	25.4	16.6	34.3
Jan-Mar	25.0	17.0	34.1
Jan-Feb	24.9	15.6	35.2

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart VC-2 provides cumulative fixed asset investment in China relative to a year earlier in all months from 2012 to 2013. Growth rose to 25.8 percent in Jan-May 2011 and then fell back to 24.9 percent in Sep and Oct 2011, declining further to 24.5 percent in Nov and 23.8 percent in Dec 2011 with deeper drop in Jan-Feb 2012 to 21.5 percent, 20.9 percent in Jan-Mar, 20.2 percent in Jan-Apr 2012, 20.1 percent in Jan-Apr 2012, 20.4 percent in both Jan-Jun 2012 and Jan-Jul 2012, 20.2 percent in Jan-Aug 2012, 20.5 percent in Jan-Sep 2012, 20.7 percent in Jan-Oct 2012, 20.7 percent in Jan-Nov 2012, 20.6 percent in Jan-Dec 2012, 21.2 percent in Jan-Feb 2013, 20.9 percent in Jan-Mar 2013, 20.6 in Jan-Apr 2013 and 20.4 percent in Jan-May 2013. The rate eased to 20.1 percent in Jan-Jun 2013 and Jan-Jul 2013, increasing to 20.3 percent in Jan-Aug 2013. The rate increased to 20.2 percent in Jan-Sep 2013 and 20.1 percent in Jan-Oct 2013. Rates in 2013 and 2012 have fallen from higher gains in 2011.

Chart VC-2, China, Investment in Fixed Assets, ∆% Cumulative over Year Earlier

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Monetary policy has been used in China in the form of increases in interest rates and required reserves of banks to moderate real estate investment. These policies have been reversed because of lower inflation and weakening economic growth. Chart VC-3 shows decline of fluctuating cumulative growth rates of investment in real estate development relative to a year earlier from 35.2 percent in Jan-Feb 2011 to 31.1 percent in Jan-Oct 2011, 29.9 percent in Jan-Nov 2011, 27.9 percent in Jan-Dec 2011, 27.8 percent in Jan-Feb 2012 and sharper decline to 23.5 percent in Jan-Mar 2012, 18.7 percent in Jan-Apr 2012 and 18.5 percent in Jan-May 2012. The trend of decline continued with 16.6 percent in Jan-Jun 2012, 15.4 percent in Jan-Jul 2012, 15.6 percent in Jan-Aug 2012, 15.4 percent in Jan-Sep 2012, 16.7 percent in Jan-Oct 2012, 16.7 percent in Jan-Nov 2012, 16.2 percent in Jan-Dec 2012, 22.8 percent in Jan-Feb 2013, 20.2 percent in Jan-Mar 2013, 21.1 percent in Jan-Apr 2013 and 20.6 percent in Jan-May 2013. The rate eased to 20.3 percent in Jan-Jun 2013, increasing to 22.8 percent in Jan-Jul 2013. The rate fell to 19.3 percent in Jan-Aug 2013 and increased marginally to 19.7 percent in Jan-Sep 2013. The rate stabilized at 19.2 percent in Jan-Oct 2013.

Chart VC-3, China, Investment in Real Estate Development, ∆% Cumulative over Year Earlier

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Growth rates of retail sales in 12 months and cumulative relative to a year earlier are in Table VC-7. There is decline of growth rates to cumulative 14.7 percent in Feb 2012, 14.8 percent in Mar, 14.7 percent in Apr, 14.5 percent in May, 14.4 percent in Jun, 14.2 percent in Jul, 14.1 percent in Aug to Oct 2012, 14.2 percent in Nov 2012 and 14.3 percent in Dec 2012. Percentage growth rates have declined in Jan-Dec 2012 relative to earlier months in 2011. The rate of retail sales growth was even lower at 12.3 percent in Feb 2013 with influence from the celebration of the New Year followed by 12.4 percent in Mar 2013 and 12.5 percent in Apr 2013. The rate of retail growth was 12.9 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2013 and 12.6 percent in Jan-May relative to a year earlier. Growth strengthened with 13.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2013 and 12.7 percent in the cumulative to Jun 2013 relative to a year earlier. Growth continued with 13.2 in 12 months in Jul 2013 and 12.8 percent in the cumulative Jan-Jul 2013 relative to a year earlier. The rate stabilized in Aug 2013 at 13.4 percent in 12 months and 12.8 percent cumulative relative to a year earlier. Stabilization continued with 13.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2013 and 12.9 percent in the cumulative relative to a year earlier. Growth stabilized at 13.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2013 and 13.0 percent in the cumulative Jan-Oct 2013 relative to a year earlier.

Table VC-5, China, Retail Sales 12-Month ∆% and Cumulative ∆% Relative to Year Earlier

	12-Month ∆%	Cumulative ∆%/ Cumulative Year Earlier
2013
Oct	13.3	13.0
Sep	13.3	12.9
Aug	13.4	12.8
Jul	13.2	12.8
Jun	13.3	12.7
May	12.9	12.6
Apr	12.8	12.5
Mar	12.6	12.4
Feb	12.3	12.3
2012
Dec	15.2	14.3
Nov	14.9	14.2
Oct	14.5	14.1
Sep	14.2	14.1
Aug	13.2	14.1
Jul	13.1	14.2
Jun	13.7	14.4
May	13.8	14.5
Apr	14.1	14.7
Mar	15.2	14.8
Feb	14.7	14.7
Jan
2011
Dec	18.1	17.1
Nov	17.3	17.0
Oct	17.2	17.0
Sep	17.7	17.0
Aug	17.0	16.9
Jul	17.2	16.8
Jun	17.7	16.8
May	16.9	16.6
Apr	17.1	16.5
Mar	17.4	17.4
Feb	11.6	15.8
Jan	19.9	19.9

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart VC-4 of the National Bureau of Statistics of China provides 12-month rates of growth of retail sales from 2012 to 2013. There is again a drop into 2013 with the lowest percentages in Chart VC-4 followed by moderate increases.

Chart VC-4, China, Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods 12-Month ∆%

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Table VC-8 provides monthly percentage changes of retail sales in China. Although the rate of 0.19 percent in Jan 2012 is the lowest in Table VC-7, the rate of 1.32 percent in Sep 2012 is relatively high and 1.25 percent in Dec 2012 is closer to rates in 2011. Sales are lower in Jan-Feb 2013 because of the New Year celebrations, rebounding in Mar-Oct 2013.

Table VC-6, China, Retail Sales, Month ∆%

2011	Month ∆%
Feb	1.35
Mar	1.26
Apr	1.30
May	1.39
Jun	1.49
Jul	1.57
Aug	1.50
Sep	1.33
Oct	1.36
Nov	1.26
Dec	1.41
2012
Jan	0.19
Feb	0.99
Mar	1.21
Apr	0.93
May	1.11
Jun	1.12
Jul	1.03
Aug	1.11
Sep	1.32
Oct	1.18
Nov	1.21
Dec	1.25
Jan 2013	0.19
Feb	0.98
Mar	1.31
Apr	1.27
May	1.18
Jun	1.24
Jul	1.25
Aug	1.13
Sep	1.26
Oct	1.19

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

VD Euro Area. Table VD-EUR provides yearly growth rates of the combined GDP of the members of the European Monetary Union (EMU) or euro area since 1996. Growth was very strong at 3.3 percent in 2006 and 3.0 percent in 2007. The global recession had strong impact with growth of only 0.4 percent in 2008 and decline of 4.4 percent in 2009. Recovery was at lower growth rates of 2.0 percent in 2010 and 1.6 percent in 2011. EUROSTAT estimates growth of GDP of the euro area of minus 0.7 percent in 2012 and minus 0.4 percent in 2013 but 1.1 percent in 2014 and 1.7 percent in 2015.

Table VD-EUR, Euro Area, Yearly Percentage Change of Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, Unemployment and GDP ∆%

Year	HICP ∆%	Unemployment %	GDP ∆%
1999	1.2	NA	2.9
2000	2.2	9.4	3.8
2001	2.4	8.3	2.0
2002	2.3	8.6	0.9
2003	2.1	9.0	0.7
2004	2.2	9.3	2.2
2005	2.2	9.1	1.7
2006	2.2	8.4	3.3
2007	2.1	7.6	3.0
2008	3.3	7.6	0.4
2009	0.3	9.6	-4.4
2010	1.6	10.1	2.0
2011	2.7	10.2	1.6
2012	2.5	11.4	-0.7
2013*			-0.4
2014*			1.1
2015*			1.7

*EUROSTAT forecast Source: EUROSTAT

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/ http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database

The GDP of the euro area in 2012 in current US dollars in the dataset of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is $12,199.1 billion or 16.9 percent of world GDP of $72,216.4 billion (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/02/weodata/index.aspx). The sum of the GDP of France $2613.9 billion with the GDP of Germany of $3429.5 billion, Italy of $2014.1 billion and Spain $1323.5 billion is $9381.0 billion or 76.9 percent of total euro area GDP and 13.0 percent of World GDP. The four largest economies account for slightly more than three quarters of economic activity of the euro area. Table VD-EUR1 is constructed with the dataset of EUROSTAT, providing growth rates of the euro area as a whole and of the largest four economies of Germany, France, Italy and Spain annually from 1996 to 2011 with the estimate of 2012 and forecasts for 2013, 2014 and 2015 by EUROSTAT. The impact of the global recession on the overall euro area economy and on the four largest economies was quite strong. There was sharp contraction in 2009 and growth rates have not rebounded to earlier growth with exception of Germany in 2010 and 2011.

Table VD-EUR1, Euro Area, Real GDP Growth Rate, ∆%

	Euro Area	Germany	France	Italy	Spain
2015*	1.7	1.9	1.7	1.2	1.7
2014*	1.1	1.7	0.9	0.7	0.5
2013*	-0.4	0.5	0.2	-1.8	-1.3
2012	-0.7	0.7	0.0*	-2.5	-1.6
2011	1.6	3.3	2.0	0.5	0.1
2010	2.0	4.0	1.7	1.7	-0.2
2009	-4.4	-5.1	-3.1	-5.5	-3.8
2008	0.4	1.1	-0.1	-1.2	0.9
2007	3.0	3.3	2.3	1.7	3.5
2006	3.3	3.7	2.5	2.2	4.1
2005	1.7	0.7	1.8	0.9	3.6
2004	2.2	1.2	2.5	1.7	3.3
2003	0.7	-0.4	0.9	0.0	3.1
2002	0.9	0.0	0.9	0.5	2.7
2001	2.0	1.5	1.8	1.9	3.7
2000	3.8	3.1	3.7	3.7	5.0
1999	2.9	1.9	3.3	1.5	4.7
1998	2.8	1.9	3.4	1.4	4.5
1997	2.6	1.7	2.2	1.9	3.9
1996	1.5	0.8	1.1	1.1	2.5

Source: EUROSTAT

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/ http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database

The Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index of the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI^®, combining activity in manufacturing and services, decreased from 52.2 in Sep to 51.5 in Oct, which is a two month low after a high in 27 months in Sep (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/0a90c155c5334ae9a0285122636dcadd). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds that the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI index suggests that the index is consistent with growth of GDP of 0.2 percent based on the first month of IVQ2013 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/0a90c155c5334ae9a0285122636dcadd). The Markit Eurozone PMI^® Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing activity with close association with GDP, decreased from 52.2 in Sep to 51.9 in Oct in the fourth consecutive monthly expansion (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/71569592047842d8b4a3070d32eff19e). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds growth in IVQ2013 at the rate of about 0.2 percent similar to IIIQ2013 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/71569592047842d8b4a3070d32eff19e). The Markit Eurozone Services Business Activity Index increased from 50.7 in Aug to 52.2 in Sep (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/71569592047842d8b4a3070d32eff19e). The Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI^® increased to 51.3 in Oct from 51.3 in Sep (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/15ea3e8c87c84f588424617cd2576d3a). New orders increased for the fourth consecutive month close to the highest rate in 27 months in Aug. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds industrial growth in the euro area at an annual rate between 2 and 3 percent (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/15ea3e8c87c84f588424617cd2576d3a). Table EUR provides the data table for the euro area.

Table EUR, Euro Area Economic Indicators

GDP	IIIQ2013 ∆% 0.1; IIIQ2013/IIIQ2012 ∆% -0.4 Blog 11/17/13
Unemployment	Sep 2013: 12.2 % unemployment rate Sep 2013: 19.447 million unemployed Blog 11/3/13
HICP	Oct month ∆%: -0.1 12 months Oct ∆%: 0.7 Blog 11/17/13
Producer Prices	Euro Zone industrial producer prices Sep ∆%: 0.1 Sep 12-month ∆%: -0.9 Blog 11/10/13
Industrial Production	Sep month ∆%: -0.5; Sep 12 months ∆%: 1.1 Blog 11/17/13
Retail Sales	Sep month ∆%: minus 0.6 Sep 12 months ∆%: 0.3 Blog 11/10/13
Confidence and Economic Sentiment Indicator	Sentiment 97.8 Oct 2013 Consumer minus 14.5 Oct 2013 Blog 11/3/13
Trade	Jan-Aug 2013/Jan-Aug 2012 Exports ∆%: 0.9 Imports ∆%: -4.0 Aug 2013 12-month Exports ∆% -5.4 Imports ∆% -7.2 Blog 10/20/13

Links to blog comments in Table EUR:

11/10/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/global-financial-risk-mediocre-united.html

11/3/2013 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/global-financial-risk-world-inflation.html

10/20/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/world-inflation-waves-regional-economic.html

10/13/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/imf-view-collapse-of-united-states.html

Table VD-1 provides percentage changes of euro area real GDP in a quarter relative to the prior quarter. Real GDP fell 0.2 percent in IVQ2011, fell 0.1 in IQ2012 and fell in the final three quarters of 2012: 0.3 percent in IIQ2012, 0.1 percent in IIIQ2012 and 0.5 percent in IVQ2012. GDP fell 0.2 percent in IQ2013 and increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2013. Growth slowed at 0.1 percent in IIIQ2013. The global recession manifested in the euro area in five consecutive quarterly declines from IIQ2008 to IIQ2009. The strongest impact was contraction of 2.8 percent in IQ2009. Recovery began in IIIQ2009 with cumulative growth of 3.9 percent to IQ2011 or at the annual equivalent rate of 2.2 percent. Growth was much more vigorous from IVQ2003 to IQ2008.

Table VD-1, Euro Area, Real GDP, Percentage Change from Prior Quarter, Calendar and Seasonally and Working Day Adjusted ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IVQ
2013	-0.2	0.3	0.1
2012	-0.1	-0.3	-0.1	-0.5
2011	0.8	0.1	0.1	-0.2
2010	0.4	0.9	0.4	0.5
2009	-2.8	-0.3	0.4	0.4
2008	0.6	-0.4	-0.6	-1.7
2007	0.8	0.5	0.6	0.4
2006	0.9	1.1	0.6	1.1
2005	0.2	0.7	0.6	0.7
2004	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.3
2003	-0.1	0.1	0.5	0.7
2002	0.1	0.6	0.3	0.1
2001	0.9	0.1	0.1	0.2
2000	1.3	0.9	0.5	0.7

Source: EUROSTAT http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/ http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database

Table VD-2 provides percentage change in real GDP in the euro area in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Growth rates were quite strong from 2004 to 2007. There were five consecutive quarters of sharp declines in GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier from IVQ2008 to IVQ2009 with sharp contractions of 5.5 percent in IQ2009, 5.4 percent in IIQ2009 and 4.4 percent in IIIQ2009. Growth rates decline in magnitude with 1.4 percent in IIIQ2011, 0.7 percent in IVQ211 and -0.2 percent in IQ2012 followed by contractions of 0.5 percent in IIQ2012, 0.7 percent in IIIQ2012 and 1.0 percent in IVQ2012. GDP contracted 1.2 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and contracted 0.6 percent in IIQ2013 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IIIQ2013 relative to a year earlier.

Table VD-2, Euro Area, Real GDP Percentage Change in a Quarter Relative to Same Quarter a

Year Earlier, Seasonally and Working Day Adjusted ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IV
2013	-1.2	-0.6	-0.4
2012	-0.2	-0.5	-0.7	-1.0
2011	2.6	1.8	1.4	0.7
2010	1.0	2.2	2.2	2.3
2009	-5.5	-5.4	-4.4	-2.3
2008	2.1	1.2	0.0	-2.1
2007	3.7	3.0	3.0	2.3
2006	2.9	3.4	3.4	3.8
2005	1.5	1.6	1.9	2.2
2004	1.8	2.2	2.2	1.8
2003	0.8	0.3	0.5	1.2
2002	0.5	1.0	1.2	1.0
2001	2.9	2.1	1.7	1.3
2000	4.3	4.5	3.8	3.3

Source: EUROSTAT http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/ http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database

Table VD-3 provides growth of euro area real GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier not seasonally adjusted. GDP fell 0.5 percent in IIQ2013 relative to a year earlier without seasonal adjustment and declined 1.8 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier without seasonal adjustment. Data are not yet available for IIIQ2013. Growth rates in 2006 and 2007 were quite strong followed by sharp declines of 5.6 percent in IQ2009, 5.9 percent in IIQ2009 and 4.2 percent in IQ2009.

Table VD-3, Euro Area, Real GDP Percentage Change in a Quarter Relative to Same Quarter a Year Earlier, Not Seasonally Adjusted ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IV
2013	-1.8	-0.5
2012	0.2	-0.9	-0.9	-1.1
2011	2.8	1.9	1.4	0.2
2010	1.1	2.4	2.2	2.1
2009	-5.6	-5.9	-4.2	-2.0
2008	1.7	1.6	0.5	-2.1
2007	3.5	3.1	3.0	2.4
2006	3.6	2.6	3.1	3.7
2005	1.0	2.1	1.9	1.8
2004	2.1	2.5	2.2	2.0
2003	1.0	0.1	0.5	1.2
2002	0.1	1.2	1.5	0.9
2001	2.7	2.0	1.7	1.5
2000	4.9	4.3	3.3	2.7

Source: EUROSTAT http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/ http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database

Table VD-4 provides GDP growth in IIIQ2013 and relative to the same quarter a year earlier with SAWDA (seasonal and working day adjustment) and NSA (not seasonally adjusted) for the euro zone, European Union, Japan and the US. Data for the euro area not seasonally adjusted are not available for IIIQ2013. The GDP of the euro zone increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2013 and declined 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier SWDA and 0.5 percent NSA for IIQ2013 while the GDP of the European Union increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2013, increased 0.1 percent SWDA in IIIQ2013 and decreased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier NSA in IIQ2013. Growth in IIIQ2013 was weak worldwide with somewhat stronger performance by the US but still insufficient to reduce unemployment and underemployment (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/global-financial-risk-mediocre-united.html) and motivate hiring (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/twenty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html).

Table VD-4, Euro Zone, European Union, Japan and USA, Real GDP Growth

	∆% IIIQ2013/ IIQ2013 SAWDA	∆% IIIQ2013/ IIIQ2012 SWDA	∆% IIQ2013/ IIQ2012 NSA
Euro Zone	0.1	-0.4	-0.5
European Union	0.2	0.1	-0.2
Germany	0.3	0.6	0.9
France	-0.1	0.2	0.4
Netherlands	0.1	-0.8	-1.7
Finland	0.4	-0.2	-0.7
Belgium	0.3	0.4	0.1
Portugal	0.2	-1.0	-2.5
Ireland	NA	NA	-1.2
Italy	-0.1	-1.9	-2.6
Greece	NA	NA	-3.8
Spain	0.1	-1.2	-1.7
United Kingdom	0.8	1.5	0.9
Japan	NA	NA	1.1
USA	0.7	1.6	NA

*SAWDA: Seasonally and Working Day Adjusted except UK, Japan and USA

Source: EUROSTAT http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/ http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database

Table VD-5 provides monthly industrial production percentage changes for total production and major segments in the euro area. Total production decreased 0.5 percent in Sep 2013 with decreases of 0.8 percent in intermediate goods, 1.0 percent in capital goods, 2.6 percent in durable goods and 0.2 percent in nondurable goods. Energy increased 1.3 percent. Industrial production increased in all months from Dec 2012 to Jun 2013 with exception of declines of 0.3 percent in May 2013 and 0.4 percent in Jan 2013. Industrial production fell in 1.0 percent in Jul 2013 and 0.5 percent in Sep 2013.

Table VD-5, Euro Zone, Industrial Production Month ∆%

	Total	INT	ENE	CG	DUR	NDUR
Sep 2013	-0.5	-0.8	1.3	-1.0	-2.6	-0.2
Aug	1.0	0.9	-0.6	1.9	-0.1	0.5
Jul	-1.0	-0.5	-0.6	-1.8	-1.4	-0.2
Jun	0.6	0.5	-1.3	2.1	4.0	-0.6
May	-0.3	0.5	0.2	-1.7	-2.3	0.6
Apr	0.4	0.5	-1.8	1.8	-1.2	1.2

Notes: INT: Intermediate; ENE: Energy; CG: Capital Goods; DUR: Durable Consumer Goods; NDUR: Nondurable Consumer Goods

Source: EUROSTAT http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/ http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database

Table VD-6 provides monthly and 12-month percentage changes of industrial production and major industrial categories in the euro zone. Most 12-month percentage changes in Table VD-6 are negative in the 12 months ending in Sep 2013 with exception of decline of 1.3 percent in durable consumer goods and 0.5 percent in energy. Industrial production decreased 0.5 percent in the month of Sep 2013 and increased 1.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2013.

Table VD-6, Euro Zone, Industrial Production, Month and 12-Month ∆%

2013	Sep Month ∆%	Sep 12-Month ∆%
Total	-0.5	1.1
Intermediate Goods	-0.8	0.9
Energy	1.3	-0.5
Capital Goods	-1.0	0.8
Durable Consumer Goods	-2.6	-1.3
Nondurable Consumer Goods	-0.2	2.2

Source: EUROSTAT http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/ http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database

There has been significant decline in percentage changes of industrial production and major categories in 12-month rates into 2012 and 2013 as shown in Table VD-3. Negative percentage changes moderated from the high rates in Oct-Nov 2012 but are still high. All 12-month percentage changes are negative for the various segments of euro area industrial production from Apr to Aug 2013 with exception of capital goods in Jul and Apr 2013 but become positive in Sep 2013 with exception of decline of 0.5 percent for energy and 1.3 percent for durable goods.

Table VD-7, Euro Zone, Industrial Production 12-Month ∆%

	Total	INT	ENE	CG	DUR	NDUR
Sep 2013	1.1	0.9	-0.5	0.8	-1.3	2.2
Aug	-1.1	-0.5	-3.3	-0.4	-4.3	-1.6
Jul	-1.8	-1.3	-1.6	-2.8	-4.1	-0.4
Jun	-0.1	-0.9	-1.7	1.6	-1.8	-0.3
May	-1.6	-2.4	-0.4	-2.0	-6.1	0.2
Apr	-0.6	-2.1	-0.7	0.8	-3.9	0.9

Notes: INT: Intermediate; ENE: Energy; CG: Capital Goods; DUR: Durable Consumer Goods; NDUR: Nondurable Consumer Goods

Source: EUROSTAT http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/ http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database

VE Germany. Table VE-DE provides yearly growth rates of the German economy from 1992 to 2012, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked. Germany’s GDP fell 5.1 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.1 percent in 2008. Recovery has been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.0 percent in 2010, 3.3 percent in 2011 and 0.7 percent in 2012.

The Federal Statistical Agency of Germany analyzes the fall and recovery of the German economy (http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Content/Statistics/VolkswirtschaftlicheGesamtrechnungen/Inlandsprodukt/Aktuell,templateId=renderPrint.psml):

“The German economy again grew strongly in 2011. The price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.0% compared with the previous year. Accordingly, the catching-up process of the German economy continued during the second year after the economic crisis. In the course of 2011, the price-adjusted GDP again exceeded its pre-crisis level. The economic recovery occurred mainly in the first half of 2011. In 2009, Germany experienced the most serious post-war recession, when GDP suffered a historic decline of 5.1%. The year 2010 was characterised by a rapid economic recovery (+3.7%).”

Table VE-DE, Germany, GDP Year ∆%

	Price Adjusted Chain-Linked	Price- and Calendar-Adjusted Chain Linked
2012	0.7	0.9
2011	3.3	3.4
2010	4.0	3.8
2009	-5.1	-5.1
2008	1.1	0.8
2007	3.3	3.4
2006	3.7	3.9
2005	0.7	0.8
2004	1.2	0.7
2003	-0.4	-0.4
2002	0.0	0.0
2001	1.5	1.6
2000	3.1	3.3
1999	1.9	1.8
1998	1.9	1.7
1997	1.7	1.8
1996	0.8	0.8
1995	1.7	1.8
1994	2.5	2.5
1993	-1.0	-1.0
1992	1.9	1.5

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis) https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/08/PE13_278_811.html https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/11/PE13_381_811.html

The Flash Germany Composite Output Index of the Markit Flash Germany PMI^®, combining manufacturing and services, decreased from 53.2 in Sep to 52.6 in Oct for the lowest reading in three months. The index of manufacturing output reached 53.3 in Oct, which is a two-month high, while the index of services decreased to 52.3 for a three-month low (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/ea870691dbeb4b3d9169092f34426260). New work volumes increased marginally. Tim Moore, Senior Economist at Markit, finds stronger manufacturing than services with potential for continuing growth of private sector activity (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/ea870691dbeb4b3d9169092f34426260). The Markit Germany Composite Output Index of the Markit Germany Services PMI^®, combining manufacturing and services with close association with Germany’s GDP, was unchanged from 52.2 in Sep to 52.2 in Oct (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/92b2f24be3384e999a9cde3204e471db). Tim Moore, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds strengthening conditions in Germany (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/92b2f24be3384e999a9cde3204e471db). The Germany Services Business Activity Index decreased from 53.7 in Sep to 52.9 in Oct (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/92b2f24be3384e999a9cde3204e471db). The Markit/BME Germany Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®), showing close association with Germany’s manufacturing conditions, increased from 51.1 in Sep to 51.7 in Oct, in movement away from contraction territory below 50.0 during four consecutive months (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/64e06121429145c6af653a8c13f0b3b9). New export orders increased moderately for the third consecutive month. Tim Moore, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds improvement in manufacturing conditions with increasing export sales (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/64e06121429145c6af653a8c13f0b3b9). Table DE provides the country data table for Germany.

Table DE, Germany, Economic Indicators

GDP	IIIQ2013 0.3 ∆%; III/Q2013/IIIQ2012 ∆% 1.1 2012/2011: 0.7% GDP ∆% 1992-2012 Blog 8/26/12 5/27/12 11/25/12 2/24/13 5/19/13 5/26/13 8/18/13 8/25/13 11/17/13
Consumer Price Index	Aug month NSA ∆%: 0.0 Aug 12-month NSA ∆%: 1.5 Blog 10/13/13
Producer Price Index	Oct month ∆%: 0.0 CSA, 0.0 12-month NSA ∆%: -0.2 Blog 11/17/13
Industrial Production	MFG Sep month CSA ∆%: minus 1.1 12-month NSA: 5.0 Blog 10/13/13
Machine Orders	MFG Sep month ∆%: 3.3 Sep 12-month ∆%: 11.0 Blog 11/10/13
Retail Sales	Sep Month ∆% -0.4 12-Month ∆% 0.2 Blog 11/3/13
Employment Report	Unemployment Rate SA Sep 5.2% Blog 11/3/13
Trade Balance	Exports Sep 12-month NSA ∆%: 3.6 Imports Sep 12 months NSA ∆%: -0.3 Exports Sep month CSA ∆%: 1.7; Imports Sep month SA minus 1.9 Blog 11/17/13

Links to blog comments in Table DE:

11/10/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/global-financial-risk-mediocre-united.html

11/3/2013 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/global-financial-risk-world-inflation.html

10/27/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/twenty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html

10/13/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/imf-view-collapse-of-united-states.html

8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html

8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/twenty-nine-million-unemployed-or.html

5/26/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

Table VE-1 provides percentage change of Germany’s GDP in one quarter relative to the prior quarter from 2001 to 2013. Germany’s GDP contracted during four consecutive quarters from IIQ2008 to IQ2009. The deepest contraction was 4.1 percent in IQ2009. Growth was quite strong from IIIQ2009 to IQ2011 for cumulative growth of 7.5 percent in seven quarters or at the average rate of 1.0 percent per quarter, which is equivalent to 4.2 percent per year. Economic growth decelerated in IIQ2011 to 0.1 percent and 0.4 percent in IIIQ2011. The economy grew 0.1 percent in IVQ2011 and grew 0.7 percent in IQ2012 but contracted 0.1 percent in IIQ2012. GDP growth in IIIQ2012 was 0.2 percent relative to IIQ2012. Germany’s GDP contracted 0.5 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IIIQ2012. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IQ2013 and increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2013. Growth of GDP was 0.3 percent in IIIQ2013. The Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Destatis) finds that growth in IIQ213 originated mostly in domestic demand with contributions by consumption of households and government and fixed capital formation while net trade (balance of exports less imports) deducted from growth (https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/11/PE13_381_811.html).

Table VE-1, Germany Quarter GDP ∆% Relative to Prior Quarter, Seasonally and Calendar Adjusted 

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IV
2013	0.0	0.7	0.3
2012	0.7	-0.1	0.2	-0.5
2011	1.5	0.1	0.4	0.1
2010	0.5	2.0	0.8	0.8
2009	-4.1	0.2	0.7	1.0
2008	1.0	-0.4	-0.5	-2.0
2007	0.6	0.6	0.8	0.4
2006	1.1	1.5	1.0	1.3
2005	-0.1	0.6	0.8	0.3
2004	0.0	0.3	-0.2	0.0
2003	-0.8	-0.1	0.5	0.4
2002	-0.4	0.3	0.4	-0.2
2001	1.5	0.1	-0.3	0.2

Seasonal and calendar adjusted Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/11/PE13_381_811.html

Table VE-2 provides percentage changes of Germany’s GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Growth was weak in the recovery from the recession of 2001 through 2005, as in most of the euro area (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 116-46). Germany’s economy then grew robustly in 2006 and 2007 until the global recession after 2007. Germany recovered with strong growth in 2010 and vigorous 5.7 percent in IQ2011. The economy decelerated in the final three quarters of 2011, growing 1.8 percent in IQ2012 relative to IQ2011. Growth decelerated further to 0.6 percent in IIQ2012 without calendar adjustment and 1.1 percent with calendar adjustment and to 0.4 percent in IIIQ2012. Growth in IVQ2012 relative to IVQ2011 was 0.0 percent. GDP fell 1.6 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.9 percent in IIQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.1 percent in IIIQ2013 relative to a year earlier.

Table VE-2, Germany, Quarter GDP ∆% Relative to Same Quarter a Year Earlier, Price Adjusted NCSA 

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IV
2013	-1.6	0.9	1.1
2012	1.8	0.6	0.4	0.0
2011	5.7	3.4	2.9	1.6
2010	2.7	4.7	4.4	4.2
2009	-6.5	-7.5	-5.0	-1.6
2008	2.1	3.1	1.1	-1.9
2007	4.3	3.4	3.3	2.2
2006	4.3	2.4	3.5	4.6
2005	-0.8	1.2	1.2	1.0
2004	1.5	1.6	0.6	0.9
2003	0.0	-1.1	-0.5	0.1

Price adjusted NSA Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/11/PE13_381_811.html

There are strong calendar effects in economic activity in Germany. Table VE-3 provides Germany’s percentage change in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier adjusting for price changes and calendar effects. Germany’s GDP increased 1.1 percent in IIQ2012 calendar-adjusted in contrast with only 0.6 percent without calendar adjustment. GDP growth adjusting for calendar effects was 0.9 percent in IIIQ2012 relative to IIIQ2011 and 0.4 percent without calendar adjustment. Growth in IVQ2012 was 0.3 percent calendar and price adjusted in contrast with 0.0 percent without calendar adjustment. Growth in IQ2013 was minus 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier with adjustment for calendar effects and minus 1.6 percent without adjustment. GDP without calendar adjustment increased 0.9 percent in IIQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 0.5 percent with calendar adjustment. In IIIQ2013, growth without calendar adjustment was 1.1 percent in contrast with 0.6 percent calendar adjusted.

Table VE-3, Germany, Quarter GDP ∆% Relative to Same Quarter a Year Earlier, Calendar and Price Adjusted NSA 

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IV
2013	-0.3	0.5	0.6
2012	1.3	1.1	0.9	0.3
2011	5.3	3.3	3.0	2.1
2010	2.6	4.3	4.4	4.1
2009	-6.7	-6.3	-5.1	-2.3

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/11/PE13_381_811.html

Table VE-4 provides annual growth rates of the German economy from 1992 to 2012, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked. Germany’s GDP fell 5.1 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.1 percent in 2008. Recovery has been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.0 percent in 2010, 3.3 percent in 2011 and 0.7 percent in 2012.

Table VE-4, Germany, GDP Year ∆%

	Price Adjusted Chain-Linked	Price- and Calendar-Adjusted Chain Linked
2012	0.7	0.9
2011	3.3	3.4
2010	4.0	3.8
2009	-5.1	-5.1
2008	1.1	0.8
2007	3.3	3.4
2006	3.7	3.9
2005	0.7	0.8
2004	1.2	0.7
2003	-0.4	-0.4
2002	0.0	0.0
2001	1.5	1.6
2000	3.1	3.3
1999	1.9	1.8
1998	1.9	1.7
1997	1.7	1.8
1996	0.8	0.8
1995	1.7	1.8
1994	2.5	2.5
1993	-1.0	-1.0
1992	1.9	1.5

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/11/PE13_381_811.html

Chart VE-1 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Federal Statistics Agency of Germany) provides GDP at current prices from 2005 to 2013. The German economy is productive with significant dynamism over the long term. There are fluctuations in an increasing trend since 2009.

Chart VE-1, Germany, GDP, Current Prices, Billion Euro

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Table VE-1A provides US GDP in current prices at seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) from 2005 to 2013. There is sharp decline with the recession beginning in IVQ2007 and upward trend during the expansion after IIIQ2009.

Chart VE-1A, US, Gross Domestic Product, Current Prices, Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates, Billions of Dollars, 2005-2013

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis

http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm

Chart VE-2 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Federal Statistics Agency of Germany) provides the index of price-adjusted chain-linked GDP of Germany from 2009 to 2013. Germany was growing rapidly before the global contraction and rebounded with significant strength along a strong upward trend that could be flattening.

Chart VE-2, Germany, Index of Price-Adjusted Chain-Linked GDP, 2000=100

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-2A provides US real GDP, seasonally adjusted at annual rates (SAAR) in billions of chained dollars of 2005 from 2009 to 2013. US economic growth has been at only 2.3 percent on average in the cyclical expansion in the 17 quarters from IIIQ2009 to IIIQ2013. Boskin (2010Sep) measures that the US economy grew at 6.2 percent in the first four quarters and 4.5 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the second quarter of 1975; and at 7.7 percent in the first four quarters and 5.8 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the first quarter of 1983 (Professor Michael J. Boskin, Summer of Discontent, Wall Street Journal, Sep 2, 2010 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882304575465462926649950.html). There are new calculations using the revision of US GDP and personal income data since 1929 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (http://bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2013/pdf/gdp3q13_adv.pdf

http://bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2013/pdf/gdp2q13_adv.pdf http://bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/2013/pdf/pi0613.pdf) and the first estimate of GDP for IIIQ2013 (http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2013/pdf/gdp3q13_adv.pdf). The average of 7.7 percent in the first four quarters of major cyclical expansions is in contrast with the rate of growth in the first four quarters of the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010 of only 2.7 percent obtained by diving GDP of $14,738.0 billion in IIQ2010 by GDP of $14,356.9 billion in IIQ2009 {[$14,738.0/$14,356.9 -1]100 = 2.7%], or accumulating the quarter on quarter growth rates (Section I and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html). The expansion from IQ1983 to IVQ1985 was at the average annual growth rate of 5.7 percent and at 7.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (Section I and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html). As a result, there are 28.9 million unemployed or underemployed in the United States for an effective unemployment rate of 17.7 percent (Section II and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/twenty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html).

Zero interest rates and quantitative easing have not provided the impulse for growth and were not required in past successful cyclical expansions.

Chart VE-2A, US, Real Gross Domestic Product, Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates, Billions of Chained 2009 Dollars, 2009-2013

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm

The production industries index of Germany in Table VE-5 shows increase of 0.2 percent in Dec 2012 and decrease of 9.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2012. The index decreased 0.6 percent in Jan 2013 and 1.4 percent in 12 months and increased 0.5 percent in Feb 2013, declining 5.1 percent in 12 months. In Mar 2013, the production index of Germany increased 0.7 percent and fell 9.1 percent in 12 months. The production index jumped 1.6 percent in Apr 2013 and 7.6 percent in 12 months. In May 2013, the production index fell 1.2 percent and 4.2 percent in 12 months. The production index of Germany increased 2.1 percent in Jun 2013 and fell 0.3 percent in 12 months. In Jul 2013, the production industries index fell 1.1 percent and increased 2.3 percent in 12 months. The production industries index increased 1.6 percent in Aug 2013 and fell 2.4 percent in 12 months. In Sep 2013, the production index fell 0.9 percent and increased 4.4 percent in 12 months. Germany’s production industries suffered decline of 7.3 percent in Dec 2008 relative to Dec 2007 and decline of 2.3 percent in 2009. Recovery was vigorous with 17.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2010. The first quarter of 2011 was quite strong when the German economy outperformed the other advanced economies. The performance of Germany’s production industries from 2002 to 2006 was vigorous with average rate of 4.5 percent. Data for the production industries index of Germany fluctuate sharply from month to month and in 12-month rates.

Table VE-5, Germany, Production Industries, Month and 12-Month ∆%

	12-Month ∆% NSA	Month ∆% Calendar SA
Sep 2013	4.4	-0.9
Aug	-2.4	1.6
Jul	2.3	-1.1
Jun	-0.3	2.1
May	-4.2	-1.2
Apr	7.6	1.6
Mar	-9.1	0.7
Feb	-5.1	0.5
Jan	-1.4	-0.6
Dec 2012	-9.4	0.2
Nov	-3.0	-0.3
Oct	4.1	-1.5
Sep	-6.8	-1.0
Aug	-0.7	-0.5
Jul	2.2	0.9
Jun	4.3	-0.7
May	-6.2	1.5
Apr	-0.5	-2.2
Mar	-0.1	2.3
Feb	2.5	-0.6
Jan	4.9	0.8
Dec 2011	1.5	-1.6
Nov	3.6	0.0
Oct	-0.4	1.0
Sep	4.0	-1.6
Aug	9.8	-0.9
Jul	5.4	3.1
Jun	-1.1	-1.4
May	17.5	0.7
Apr	4.7	0.1
Mar	9.2	0.6
Feb	15.1	1.2
Jan	14.4	0.7
Dec 2010	17.1
Dec 2009	-2.3
Dec 2008	-7.3
Dec 2007	-0.1
Dec 2006	2.5
Dec 2005	4.9
Dec 2004	5.3
Dec 2003	5.1
Dec 2002	2.0
Average ∆% per Year
Dec 1994 to Dec 2012	0.7
Dec 1994 to Dec 2000	0.8
Dec 1994 to Dec 2006	1.3
Dec 2002 to Dec 2006	4.5

Source: Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Table VE-6 provides monthly percentage changes of the German production industries index by components from Feb to Sep 2013. The index decreased 0.9 percent in Sep 2013 with decreases of 1.1 percent in industry, 1.1 percent in manufacturing, 2.1 percent in capital goods and 0.2 percent in intermediate goods. Other segments increased with 0.9 percent in durable goods and 2.1 percent in energy.

Table VE-6, Germany, Production Industries, Industry and Components, Month ∆%

	Sep 2013	Aug	Jul	Jun	May	Apr	Mar	Feb
Production Industries	-0.9	1.6	-1.1	2.1	-1.2	1.6	0.7	0.5
Industry	-1.1	2.2	-1.7	2.0	-1.1	1.5	0.6	0.7
Mfg	-1.1	2.3	-1.8	2.0	-1.1	1.4	0.6	0.7
Intermediate Goods	-0.2	0.1	-0.9	0.5	1.0	0.7	0.8	0.0
Capital Goods	-2.1	4.6	-2.7	3.7	-3.2	2.2	0.2	2.5
Durable Goods	0.9	-3.0	-4.2	12.3	-5.0	-1.4	2.1	1.4
Nondurable Goods	-0.2	1.4	-0.4	-1.1	0.9	1.6	1.1	-3.2
Energy	2.1	-2.5	0.3	4.5	-1.9	-3.8	7.8	0.5

Seasonally Calendar Adjusted

Source: Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Table VE-7 provides 12-month unadjusted percentage changes of industry and components in Germany. There have been percentage declines of 12-month rates in the production index of Germany and all segments in the four months from Dec 2012 to Mar 2013 with exception of nondurables in Jan 2013 and energy in Mar 2013. There is sharp recovery in Apr 2013 with growth of manufacturing by 8.6 percent and capital goods by 11.6 percent. All segments show declines in 12 months in May 2013. There are increases in the 12 months ending in Jun of 1.4 percent in capital goods and 2.5 percent in durable goods. All segments increased in Jul 2013. All segments fell in Aug 2013 with sharp declines. There is strong recovery in Sep with high rates of increase. Percentage declines in 12 months are quite sharp in Dec 2012 with most percentage changes negative around two-digits. Although there are sharp fluctuations in the data, there is suggestion of deceleration that would be expected from much higher earlier rates. The deceleration is quite evident in single-digit percentage changes from Sep 2011 to Dec 2012 relative to high double-digit percentage changes in Jan-Mar 2011. There are multiple negative 12-month percentage changes across many segments. Growth rates in the recovery from the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009 were initially very vigorous in comparison with the growth rates before the contraction that are shown in the bottom part of Table VE-7.

Table VE-7, Germany, Industry and Components, 12-Month ∆% Unadjusted

	IND	MFG	INTG	CG	DG	NDG	EN
2013
Sep	5.0	5.0	4.3	6.4	4.4	3.2	-0.1
Aug	-2.2	-2.2	-3.0	-1.3	-7.7	-2.1	-3.2
Jul	1.9	1.9	2.5	0.8	3.6	3.8	2.4
Jun	0.2	0.2	-1.1	1.4	2.5	-0.6	-0.9
May	-3.9	-4.0	-2.9	-5.4	-10.2	-0.8	-5.2
Apr	8.7	8.6	5.3	11.6	9.6	9.0	-1.8
Mar	-8.8	-8.7	-8.0	-9.7	-9.4	-7.9	0.7
Feb	-4.9	-4.9	-5.6	-4.8	-6.4	-2.8	-11.9
Jan	-0.7	-0.6	-1.2	-1.9	-2.0	4.8	-4.1
2012
Dec	-9.6	-9.3	-11.8	-8.5	-12.4	-7.1	-2.3
Nov	-3.2	-3.1	-4.0	-2.7	-7.6	-1.3	0.7
Oct	3.9	3.8	2.9	4.0	0.7	6.9	3.2
Sep	-7.7	-7.6	-9.0	-7.2	-11.1	-5.4	3.9
Aug	-1.1	-1.1	-3.3	0.3	0.6	0.5	4.4
Jul	2.0	1.9	0.3	4.7	-2.3	-0.8	2.1
Jun	4.0	3.9	2.1	6.5	7.4	0.4	6.9
May	-6.8	-6.7	-7.2	-5.9	-10.6	-7.7	4.0
Apr	-0.9	-0.9	-1.8	1.9	-5.3	-5.7	4.0
Mar	-0.4	-0.3	-3.0	2.8	-6.0	-2.2	-0.8
Feb	3.3	3.3	1.1	7.4	0.0	-2.3	5.8
Jan	5.7	5.6	3.2	10.4	5.0	0.1	-3.3
2011
Dec	0.9	0.8	1.0	0.9	0.1	1.0	-9.3
Nov	4.0	3.9	2.2	7.5	2.1	-1.4	-5.8
Oct	0.1	0.2	-1.0	2.7	-2.5	-3.8	-6.1
Sep	5.2	5.2	4.1	8.8	3.2	-1.6	-6.3
Aug	11.6	11.5	8.6	20.0	4.6	0.7	-3.2
Jul	7.3	7.3	4.4	13.1	6.6	-0.7	-5.9
Jun	-0.1	-0.2	-0.6	1.9	-10.3	-2.5	-4.8
May	20.8	20.5	16.9	27.7	20.5	12.4	-7.4
Apr	6.8	6.7	5.3	10.6	4.4	1.3	-5.7
Mar	10.5	10.4	9.7	14.5	8.1	1.1	2.5
Feb	16.5	16.3	15.0	22.6	9.7	5.4	-0.6
Jan	16.3	16.0	16.1	22.9	9.7	2.7	-2.7
2010
Dec	17.6	17.6	15.0	25.8	8.3	1.5	2.5
Nov	14.0	14.0	13.0	19.3	7.7	3.7	3.5
Oct	9.9	9.9	9.8	14.1	6.3	0.6	2.4
Sep	9.8	9.5	12.1	10.1	8.3	2.8	2.1
Aug	17.0	17.0	19.3	19.9	18.3	7.1	1.3
Jul	9.0	8.7	13.1	8.7	7.4	1.0	1.9
Jun	16.3	16.2	20.7	16.1	19.6	4.9	-2.8
May	13.0	13.3	19.9	12.0	11.2	1.2	11.1
Apr	14.8	14.9	21.6	15.5	8.8	-0.1	9.4
Mar	14.3	14.5	20.4	12.1	12.0	5.9	4.2
Feb	6.8	7.4	10.6	6.5	8.0	-0.9	3.7
Jan	0.4	0.9	6.4	-3.9	0.7	-2.8	0.8
Dec 2010	17.6	17.6	15.0	25.8	8.3	1.5	2.5
Dec 2009	-3.2	-3.1	3.3	-9.9	-0.1	1.1	3.7
Dec 2008	-7.6	-7.4	-14.3	-5.4	-11.2	3.7	-9.0
Dec 2007	0.0	-0.3	-0.6	2.5	-10.0	-2.7	1.6
Dec 2006	3.2	3.1	5.2	2.3	8.6	-0.9	-5.3
Dec 2005	5.8	5.9	3.5	9.0	3.2	2.1	0.6
Dec 2004	5.3	5.5	7.7	3.4	0.8	5.7	9.6
Dec 2003	5.5	5.3	5.5	6.4	1.7	4.4	0.3
Dec 2002	3.7	3.3	5.4	3.4	-5.9	2.3	-2.6

Note: IND: Industry; MFG: Manufacturing; INTG: Intermediate Goods; CG: Capital Goods; DG: Durable Goods; NDG: Nondurable Goods; EN: Energy

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Broader perspective since 2005 is provided by Chart VE-3 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland, Federal Statistical Agency of Germany. The index of production industries not seasonally adjusted rises by more than one third between 2003 and 2008 with sharp fluctuations and then collapses during the global recession in 2008. Recovery has been in a steep upward trajectory that has recovered at the more recent peaks the losses during the contraction. Recovery was reversed by the drop in Dec 2011 with strong rebound into 2012 and another sharp drop in Apr 2012 with recovery in May 2012 and drops in Jun, Aug, Sep, Oct and Jan 2013 followed by recovery in Feb-Apr 2013. The index fell again in May 2013, recovered in Jun 2013, fell in Jul 2013 and increased in Aug 2013. The index fell in Sep 2013.

Chart VE-3, Germany, Production Industries, Not Adjusted, 2010=100

Source: Statistiche Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

More detail is provided by Chart VE-4 of the Statistiche Bundesamt Deutschland, or Federal Statistical Agency of Germany, with the unadjusted production industries index and trend from 2009 to 2013. There could be some flattening in recent months probably leading into stagnation or mild downturn as depicted by trend.

Chart VE-4, Germany, Production Industries, Not Adjusted, 2010=100

Source: Statistiche Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Table VE-8 provides month and 12-month rates of growth of manufacturing in Germany from Dec 2010 to Sep 2013. There are fluctuations in both monthly rates and in the past 12 months. In Jan 2013, manufacturing fell 0.9 percent and decreased 0.6 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing increased 0.7 percent in Feb 2013, declining 4.9 percent in 12 months. In Mar 2013, manufacturing increased 0.6 percent but fell 8.7 percent in 12 months. There is strong recovery in Apr 2013 with growth of 1.4 percent and 8.6 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 1.1 percent in May 2013 and declined 4.0 percent in 12 months. Recovery is strong in Jun 2013 with growth of 2.0 percent in the month 0.2 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 1.8 percent in Jul 2013 and increased 1.9 percent in 12 months. In Aug 2013, manufacturing increased 2.3 percent and fell 2.2 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 1.1 percent in Sep 2013 and increased 5.0 percent in 12 months.

Table VE-8, Germany, Manufacturing Month and 12-Month ∆%

	12-Month ∆% NSA	Month ∆% SA and Calendar Adjusted
Sep 2013	5.0	-1.1
Aug	-2.2	2.3
Jul	1.9	-1.8
Jun	0.2	2.0
May	-4.0	-1.1
Apr	8.6	1.4
Mar	-8.7	0.6
Feb	-4.9	0.7
Jan	-0.6	-0.9
Dec 2012	-9.3	1.1
Nov	-3.1	-0.2
Oct	3.8	-1.5
Sep	-7.6	-1.3
Aug	-1.1	-0.6
Jul	1.9	1.3
Jun	3.9	-1.0
May	-6.7	2.0
Apr	-0.9	-2.0
Mar	-0.3	1.1
Feb	3.3	0.2
Jan	5.6	0.7
Dec 2011	0.8	-1.6
Nov	3.9	-0.3
Oct	0.2	0.8
Sep	5.2	-1.7
Aug	11.5	-0.9
Jul	7.3	3.3
Jun	-0.2	-1.4
May	20.5	1.0
Apr	6.7	0.5
Mar	10.4	0.8
Feb	16.3	1.3
Jan	16.0	-0.9
Dec 2010	17.6	1.3

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-5 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland, or Federal Statistical Office of Germany, provides the manufacturing index of Germany from 2009 to 2013. Manufacturing was already flattening in 2007 and fell sharply in 2008 to the beginning of 2010. Manufacturing grew sharply in the initial phase of recovery but has flattened in recent months as revealed by the trend that may be turning upward.

Chart VE-5, Germany, Production Index, Manufacturing, Not Adjusted Index and Trend, 2010=100

Source: Statistiche Bundesamt Deutschland https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Twelve-month rates of growth Germany’s exports and imports are shown in Table VE-9. There was sharp decline in the rates in Jun and Jul 2011 to single-digit levels especially for exports. In the 12 months ending in Aug 2011, exports rose 14.6 percent and imports 13.2 percent. In Sep 2011, exports grew 10.5 percent relative to a year earlier and imports grew 11.7 percent. Growth rates in 12 months ending in Oct 2011 fell significantly to 3.6 percent for exports and 9.2 percent for imports. Lower prices may explain part of the decline in nominal values. Exports fell 3.8 percent in 12 months ending in Sep 2012, rebounding to growth of 10.5 percent in Oct 2012 and minus 0.5 percent in Nov 2012 but sharp decline of 7.3 percent in Dec 2012 followed by rebound of 2.4 percent in Jan 2013. Exports fell 3.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2013 and declined 4.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2013. In Apr 2013, exports increased 7.7 percent relative to a year earlier. Exports fell 4.8 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2013. Exports fell 5.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2013 and imports fell 2.3 percent. In the 12 months ending in Sep 2013, exports increased 3.6 percent and imports fell 0.3 percent. Imports decreased 4.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2012, rebounding to growth of 4.1 percent in Oct 2012, decreasing 1.5 percent in Nov 2012 and 7.8 percent in Dec 2012 and rebounding 2.7 percent in Jan 2013. Imports fell 5.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2013 and declined 7.5 percent in Mar 2013. In Apr 2013, imports increased 4.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In May 2013, imports fell 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Imports fell 1.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2013. In Jul 2013, imports increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Imports fell 2.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2013. In the 12 months ending in Sep 2013, exports declined 0.3 percent. Growth was much stronger in the recovery during 2010 and 2011 from the fall from 2007 to 2009. Germany’s trade grew at high rates in 2006 and 2005.

Table VE-9, Germany, Exports and Imports NSA Euro Billions and 12-Month ∆%

	Exports EURO Billions	12- Month ∆%	Imports EURO Billions	12-Month ∆%
Sep 2013	94.7	3.6	74.3	-0.3
Aug	85.0	-5.7	71.7	-2.3
Jul	93.1	-0.3	76.8	0.9
Jun	92.4	-2.0	75.4	-1.2
May	88.2	-4.8	74.6	-3.1
Apr	94.0	7.7	76.0	4.3
Mar	94.2	-4.6	75.4	-7.5
Feb	88.3	-3.2	71.5	-5.7
Jan	88.2	2.4	74.6	2.7
Dec 2012	78.6	-7.3	66.6	-7.8
Nov	93.7	-0.5	76.8	-1.5
Oct	98.4	10.5	82.5	5.7
Sep	91.4	-3.8	74.5	-4.1
Aug	90.2	5.7	73.4	-0.1
Jul	93.3	9.1	76.2	1.5
Jun	94.3	7.0	76.3	1.4
May	92.7	0.3	77.0	-0.7
Apr	87.2	3.2	72.9	-1.1
Mar	98.7	0.1	81.5	2.1
Feb	91.2	7.9	75.8	4.6
Jan	86.1	8.6	72.6	4.6
Dec 2011	84.8	4.7	72.3	5.6
Nov	94.1	7.4	78.0	5.8
Oct	89.1	3.6	78.1	9.2
Sep	95.0	10.5	77.7	11.7
Aug	85.3	14.6	73.5	13.2
Jul	85.6	5.2	75.0	9.7
Jun	88.1	3.3	75.2	5.6
May	92.4	21.2	77.5	17.4
Apr	84.5	12.4	73.7	18.5
Mar	98.7	15.3	79.8	15.1
Feb	84.5	20.8	72.5	27.6
Jan	79.3	25.2	69.4	26.0
Dec 2010	81.0	20.0	68.4	24.3
Nov	87.6	21.2	73.7	30.9
Oct	86.0	18.7	71.5	19.2
Sep	86.0	21.2	69.5	17.0
Aug	74.4	23.8	64.9	27.1
Jul	81.4	15.3	68.4	24.4
Jun	85.3	27.5	71.2	33.9
May	76.2	25.6	66.1	31.2
Apr	75.2	16.7	62.2	14.5
Mar	85.6	22.0	69.3	18.0
Feb	70.0	9.7	56.8	3.2
Jan	63.4	-0.3	55.1	-1.9
Dec 2009	67.5	1.2	55.0	-7.3
Dec 2008	66.7	-8.6	59.4	-5.0
Dec 2007	73.0	-0.6	62.5	-0.1
Dec 2006	73.4	10.2	62.6	8.5
Dec 2005	66.6	11.5	57.7	18.1
Dec 2004	59.7	9.2	48.9	10.8
Dec 2003	54.7	7.6	44.1	3.9
Dec 2002	50.8	5.5	42.5	6.4
Dec 2001	48.2	-3.7	39.9	-17.5
Dec 2000	50.0		48.4

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-6 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland shows exports and trend of German exports. Growth has been with fluctuations around a strong upward trend that is milder than earlier in the recovery but could be flattening or even falling.

Chart VE-6, Germany, Exports Original Value and Trend 2009-2012

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-7 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland provides German imports and trend. Imports also fell sharply and have been recovering with fluctuations around a strong upward trend that could be flattening.

Chart VE-7, Germany, Imports Original Value and Trend 2009-2012

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-8 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland shows the trade balance of Germany since 2008. There was sharp decline during the global recession and fluctuations around a mild upward trend during the recovery with stabilization followed by stronger trend in recent months and flattening/declining recently.

Chart VE-8, Germany, Trade Balance Original and Trend 2009-2012

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Table VE-10 provides monthly rates of growth of exports and imports of Germany. Exports increased 1.7 percent in Sep 2013 calendar and seasonally adjusted (CSA) and imports decreased 1.9 percent. Export growth had been relatively strong from Dec 2012 to Apr 2013 with only one monthly decline of 1.2 percent in Feb 2013. Exports fell 2.3 percent in May 2013 and 0.8 percent in Jul 2013. Export growth and import growth were vigorous in Jan-Mar 2011 when Germany’s economy outperformed most advanced economies but less dynamic and consistent in following months as world trade weakens.

Table VE-10, Germany, Exports and Imports Month ∆% Calendar and Seasonally Adjusted 

	Exports	Imports
Sep 2013	1.7	-1.9
Aug	1.0	0.1
Jul	-0.8	0.2
Jun	1.2	-0.4
May	-2.3	0.9
Apr	1.6	1.4
Mar	0.3	0.4
Feb	-1.2	-2.8
Jan	1.7	2.8
Dec 2012	0.2	-1.2
Nov	-2.6	-3.9
Oct	0.4	2.6
Sep	-2.5	-0.5
Aug	1.7	-0.1
Jul	0.6	0.2
Jun	-0.9	-1.9
May	3.7	4.3
Apr	-0.9	-4.2
Mar	-0.5	1.1
Feb	1.0	3.4
Jan	2.9	-0.2
Dec 2011	-2.9	-1.7
Nov	2.8	-0.4
Oct	-3.5	-0.4
Sep	1.6	0.1
Aug	2.6	-0.1
Jul	-1.2	0.2
Jun	0.0	0.7
May	1.9	0.9
Apr	-3.1	-0.6
Mar	4.5	1.9
Feb	1.1	2.5
Jan	1.0	3.1
Dec 2010	-0.1	-1.9

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

There is extremely important information in Table VE-11 for the current sovereign risk crisis in the euro zone. Table VE-11 provides the structure of regional and country relations of Germany’s exports and imports with newly available data for Sep 2013. German exports to other European Union (EU) members are 57.9 percent of total exports in Sep 2013 and 57.0 percent in cumulative Jan-Sep 2013. Exports to the euro area are 37.3 percent of the total in Sep and 36.8 percent cumulative in Jan-Sep. Exports to third countries are 42.0 percent of the total in Sep and 43.0 percent cumulative in Jan-Sep. There is similar distribution for imports. Exports to non-euro countries are increasing 7.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2013, increasing 1.1 percent cumulative in Jan-Sep 2013 while exports to the euro area are increasing 4.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2013 and decreasing 2.0 percent cumulative in Jan-Sep 2013. Exports to third countries, accounting for 42.0 percent of the total in Sep 2013, are increasing 1.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2013 and decreasing 0.8 percent cumulative in Jan-Sep 2013, accounting for 43.0 percent of the cumulative total in Jan-Sep 2013. Price competitiveness through devaluation could improve export performance and growth. Economic performance in Germany is closely related to Germany’s high competitiveness in world markets. Weakness in the euro zone and the European Union in general could affect the German economy. This may be the major reason for choosing the “fiscal abuse” of the European Central Bank considered by Buiter (2011Oct31) over the breakdown of the euro zone. There is a tough analytical, empirical and forecasting doubt of growth and trade in the euro zone and the world with or without maintenance of the European Monetary Union (EMU) or euro zone. Germany could benefit from depreciation of the euro because of high share in its exports to countries not in the euro zone but breakdown of the euro zone raises doubts on the region’s economic growth that could affect German exports to other member states.

Table VE-11, Germany, Structure of Exports and Imports by Region, € Billions and ∆%

	Sep 2013  € Billions	Sep 12-Month ∆%	Cumulative Jan-Sep 2012 € Billions	Cumulative Jan-Sep 2013/ Jan-Sep 2012 ∆%
Total Exports	94.7	3.6	818.0	-0.9
A. EU Members	54.8 % 57.9	5.4	466.2 % 57.0	-0.9
Euro Area	35.3 % 37.3	4.4	301.0 % 36.8	-2.0
Non-euro Area	19.5 % 20.6	7.2	165.2 % 20.2	1.1
B. Third Countries	39.8 % 42.0	1.2	351.8 % 43.0	-0.8
Total Imports	74.3	-0.3	670.2	-1.4
C. EU Members	48.2 % 64.9	2.6	430.6 % 64.2	0.2
Euro Area	33.0 % 44.4	1.8	300.1 % 44.8	-0.8
Non-euro Area	15.2 % 20.5	4.4	130.5 % 19.5	2.6
D. Third Countries	26.1 % 35.1	-5.2	239.6 % 35.8	-4.3

Notes: Total Exports = A+B; Total Imports = C+D

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/11/PE13_372_51.html

VF France. Table VF-FR provides growth rates of GDP of France with the estimates of Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE). The long-term rate of GDP growth of France from IVQ1949 to IVQ2012 is quite high at 3.2 percent. France’s growth rates were quite high in the four decades of the 1950s, 1960, 1970s and 1980s with an average growth rate of 4.0 percent compounding the average rates in the decades and discounting to one decade. The growth impulse diminished with 1.9 percent in the 1990s and 1.7 percent from 2000 to 2007. The average growth rate from 2000 to 2012, using fourth quarter data, is 1.0 percent because of the sharp impact of the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. The growth rate from 2000 to 2012 is 1.0 percent. Cobet and Wilson (2002) provide estimates of output per hour and unit labor costs in national currency and US dollars for the US, Japan and Germany from 1950 to 2000 (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 137-44). The average yearly rate of productivity change from 1950 to 2000 was 2.9 percent in the US, 6.3 percent for Japan and 4.7 percent for Germany while unit labor costs in USD increased at 2.6 percent in the US, 4.7 percent in Japan and 4.3 percent in Germany. From 1995 to 2000, output per hour increased at the average yearly rate of 4.6 percent in the US, 3.9 percent in Japan and 2.6 percent in Germany while unit labor costs in US fell at minus 0.7 percent in the US, 4.3 percent in Japan and 7.5 percent in Germany. There was increase in productivity growth in the G7 in Japan and France in the second half of the 1990s but significantly lower than the acceleration of 1.3 percentage points per year in the US. Lucas (2011May) compares growth of the G7 economies (US, UK, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Canada) and Spain, finding that catch-up growth with earlier rates for the US and UK stalled in the 1970s.

Table VF-FR, France, Average Growth Rates of GDP Fourth Quarter, 1949-2012

Period	Average ∆%
1949-2012	3.2
2000-2012	1.0
2000-2011	1.1
2000-2007	1.7
1990-1999	1.9
1980-1989	2.5
1970-1979	3.8
1960-1969	5.7
1950-1959	4.2

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=26&date=20131114

The Markit Flash France Composite Output Index decreased from 50.5 in Sep to 50.1 in Oct for a two-month low (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c25fae531a1243b69ab9266c67f205f6). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds that the data are somewhat encouraging for the beginning of the final quarter of the year (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c25fae531a1243b69ab9266c67f205f6). The Markit France Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing with close association with French GDP, did not change from 50.5 in Sep to 50.5 in Ict, indicating moderate expansion (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/5190492877554ca99d240fb4e6c9a623). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the France Services PMI^®, finds stabilization of the economy of France (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/5190492877554ca99d240fb4e6c9a623). The Markit France Services Activity index decreased from 51.0 in Sep to 50.9 in Aug (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/5190492877554ca99d240fb4e6c9a623). The Markit France Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^® decreased marginally to 49.1 in Oct from 49.8 in Sep, which indicates marginal deterioration in conditions in manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f2d0f5b4f2d04a61a36714f852faa6d5). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the France Manufacturing PMI^®, finds that export business rose at the highest pace since May 2011 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f2d0f5b4f2d04a61a36714f852faa6d5). Table FR provides the country data table for France.

Table FR, France, Economic Indicators

CPI	Oct month ∆% -0.1 12 months ∆%: 0.6 11/17/13
PPI	Sep month ∆%: 0.3 Sep 12 months ∆%: -0.8 Blog 11/3/13
GDP Growth	IIIQ2013/IIQ2013 ∆%: minus 0.1 IIIQ2013/IIIQ2012 ∆%: 0.2 Blog 3/31/13 5/19/12 6/30/13 9/29/13 11/17/13
Industrial Production	Sep ∆%: Manufacturing minus 0.7 12-Month ∆%: Manufacturing minus 1.3 Blog 11/17/13
Consumer Spending	Manufactured Goods Sep ∆%: -0.2 Sep 12-Month Manufactured Goods ∆%: -0.1 Blog 11/3/13
Employment	Unemployment Rate: IIQ2013 10.5% Blog 9/8/13
Trade Balance	Sep Exports ∆%: month 1.8, 12 months -1.3 Sep Imports ∆%: month 3.4, 12 months 0.7 Blog 11/17/13
Confidence Indicators	Historical averages 100 Sep Mfg Business Climate 98 Blog 10/27/13

Links to blog comments in Table FR:

11/3/2013 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/global-financial-risk-world-inflation.html

10/27/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/twenty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html

10/20/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/world-inflation-waves-regional-economic.html

9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

9/8/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/twenty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html

6/30/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/tapering-quantitative-easing-policy-and.html

5/19/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/word-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

Growth of GDP in a quarter relative to the prior quarter is provided for France in Table VF-1. GDP fell 0.2 percent in IVQ2012 and fell 0.1 percent in IQ2013, rebounding with growth of 0.5 percent in IIQ2013. GDP contracted 0.1 percent in IIIQ2013. The French economy grew 0.2 percent in IVQ2011, stagnating in IQ2012, contracting 0.3 percent in IIQ2011 and growing 0.2 percent in IIIQ2012. In the four quarters of 2012 and the first quarter of 2013, France’s GDP contracted in three quarter for combined decline of 0.6 percent. Growth in the ten quarters of expansion from IIIQ2009 to IVQ2011 accumulated 4.3 percent at the annual equivalent rate of 1.7 percent. Recovery has been much weaker than the cumulative 2.6 percent in the four quarters of 2006. Weak recoveries in advanced economies have prevented full utilization of labor, capital and productive resources.

Table VF-1, France, Quarterly Real GDP Growth, Quarter on Prior Quarter ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IVQ
2013	-0.1	0.5	-0.1
2012	0.0	-0.3	0.2	-0.2
2011	1.1	-0.1	0.3	0.2
2010	0.3	0.6	0.5	0.5
2009	-1.7	0.0	0.1	0.7
2008	0.4	-0.7	-0.4	-1.6
2007	0.7	0.6	0.4	0.2
2006	0.7	1.1	0.0	0.8
2005	0.2	0.3	0.6	0.8
2004	0.5	0.7	0.4	0.8
2003	0.2	0.0	0.6	0.7
2002	0.6	0.5	0.1	0.0
2001	0.6	0.1	0.3	-0.4
2000	1.2	0.7	0.5	0.9
1999	0.5	0.9	1.0	1.2

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=26&date=20131114

Growth rates of France’s real GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier are shown in Table VF-2. France has not recovered the rates of growth in excess of 2 percent prior to the global recession. GDP fell 4.3 percent in IQ2009, 3.7 percent in IIQ2009, 3.2 percent in IIIQ2009 and 1.0 percent in IVQ2009. Growth in IVQ2011 relative to IVQ2010 was 1.5 percent and GDP growth declined to 0.4 percent in IQ2012, 0.1 percent in IIQ2012 relative to the same quarter a year earlier, 0.0 percent in IIIQ2012 relative to a year earlier and minus 0.3 percent in IVQ2012 relative to a year earlier. Growth in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier was minus 0.4 percent. France’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 0.2 percent in IIIQ2013 relative to a year earlier.

Table VF-2, France, Real GDP Growth Current Quarter Relative to Same Quarter Year Earlier ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IVQ
2013	-0.4	0.5	0.2
2012	0.4	0.1	0.0	-0.3
2011	2.7	2.1	1.8	1.5
2010	1.0	1.6	2.1	1.9
2009	-4.3	-3.7	-3.2	-1.0
2008	1.6	0.4	-0.5	-2.3
2007	2.6	2.1	2.4	1.8
2006	2.3	3.2	2.6	2.6
2005	2.1	1.6	1.8	1.8
2004	1.9	2.6	2.4	2.5
2003	0.8	0.3	0.8	1.6
2002	0.6	1.0	0.9	1.2
2001	2.7	2.1	1.9	0.6
2000	4.3	4.2	3.6	3.3
1999	3.0	2.9	3.2	3.7

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=26&date=20131114

Chart VF-1 of the Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques provides France’s quarterly real GDP from IQ1949 to IIIQ2013. France’s economy has grown dynamically over decades. Recovery from the global recession in 2008-2009 has flattened.

Chart VF-1, France, Quarterly Real GDP, IQ1949-IIQ2013

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=26&date=20131114

Percentage changes and contributions of segments of GDP in France are provided in Table VF-3. Internal demand deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2013 and added 0.4 percentage points in IIQ2013. Internal demand did not contribute to growth in IIIQ2013. Net foreign trade deducted 0.1 percentage from growth in IQ2013, added 0.4 percentage points in IIQ2013 and did not contribute to growth in IIIQ2013.

Table VF-3, France, Contributions to GDP Growth, Calendar and Seasonally Adjusted, %

∆% from Prior Period	IVQ 2012	IQ 2013	IIQ 2013	IIIQ 2013	2012	2013 OVHG
GDP	-0.2	-0.1	0.5	-0.1	0.0	0.1
Imports	-1.1	0.1	1.6	1.0	-0.9	0.9
Household Consump.	0.1	-0.1	0.4	0.2	-0.4	0.3
Govt. Consump.	0.4	0.4	0.7	0.2	1.4	1.6
GFCF	-0.6	-0.8	-0.4	-0.6	-1.2	-2.3
Exports	-0.6	-0.4	1.9	-1.5	2.5	0.1
% Point Contribs.
Internal Demand ex Inventory Changes	0.0	-0.1	0.4	0.0	-0.1	0.2
Inventory Changes	-0.4	0.2	0.1	0.5	-0.8	0.2
Net Foreign Trade	0.2	-0.1	0.0	-0.7	1.0	-0.3

Notes: Consump.: Consumption; Gvt.: Government; GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation; Contribus.: Contributions; OVHG: “annual growth rate carried over at the mid-year point.

Source:  Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=26&date=20131114

Chart VF-1 of France’s Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques provides percentage point contributions to GDP growth. The economy was driven in IQ2013 by changes in inventories with net trade and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) deducting from growth. Final consumption drove the economy in IIQ2013 together with inventory changes while net trade was neutral and gross fixed capital formation deducted from growth. Gross fixed capital formation and net trade contracted the economy in IIIQ2013.

Chart VF-2, France, Percentage Point Contributions to GDP Growth

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=26&date=20131114

Table VF-4 provides longer historical perspective of manufacturing in France. Output of manufacturing decreased 0.7 percent in Sep 2013 and fell 1.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2013. Manufacturing in France fell 14.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2008 and 4.1 percent in Dec 2009.

Table VF-4, France, Manufacturing, Month and 12-Month ∆%

	Month ∆%	12-Month ∆%
Sep 2013	-0.7	-1.3
Aug	0.9	-2.7
Jul	-0.9	-2.0
Jun	-0.3	0.0
May	-1.0	0.1
Apr	2.5	0.5
Mar	-0.9	-3.7
Feb	0.8	-1.1
Jan	-0.7	-3.7
Dec 2012	1.3	-3.3
Nov	-0.9	-6.1
Oct	-1.4	-3.3
Sep	-2.2	-2.3
Aug	1.7	-0.7
Jul	1.1	-2.7
Jun	-0.2	-3.5
May	-0.6	-5.3
Apr	-1.8	-3.1
Mar	1.8	-2.3
Feb	-1.9	-5.3
Jan	-0.3	-2.8
Dec 2011	-1.6	-0.5
Nov	2.1	1.9
Oct	-0.4	2.0
Sep	-0.5	1.4
Aug	-0.4	3.5
Jul	0.3	3.4
Jun	-2.1	3.4
May	1.7	4.9
Apr	-1.0	4.0
Mar	-1.3	5.5
Feb	0.8	9.2
Jan	2.0	8.4
Dec 2010	0.7	6.0
Dec 2009		-4.1
Dec 2008		-14.2
Dec 2007		-0.8
Dec 2006		2.6
Dec 2005		0.7
Dec 2004		0.9
Dec 2003		0.3
Dec 2002		-1.1
Dec 2001		-5.4
Dec 2000		4.6

Source:

Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=10&date=20131108

Chart VF-3 of the Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques provides France’s index of manufacturing, adjusted for working days and seasonal effects, from Jan 1990 to Sep 2013. Growth was robust in the 1990s and in recovery from the 2001 recession. Manufacturing output fell sharply during the global recession followed by recovery and another trend of decline.

Chart VF-3, France, Index of Manufacturing 2010=100, Jan 1990-Sep 2013, Seasonal and Working-Day Adjusted

Source:

Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=10&date=20131108

Chart VF-4 of France’s Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques shows indices of manufacturing in France from 2009 to 2013. Manufacturing, which is CZ in Chart VF-2, fell deeply in 2008 and part of 2009. All curves of industrial indices tend to flatten recently with oscillations and declines and marginal improvement followed by renewed decline/stability in the final segment with jump in Mar-Apr 2013. Manufacturing fell in May-Jul 2013 with mild recovery in Aug 2013 and decline in Sep 2013.

Chart VF-4, France, Industrial Production Indices 2009-2013

Legend: CZ : Manufacturing – (C1) : Manufacture of food products and beverages – (C3) : Electrical and electronic equipment; machine equipment – (C4) : Manufacture of transport equipment – (C5) : Other manufacturing

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=10&date=20131108

France has been running a trade deficit fluctuating around €5,000 million as shown in Table VF-5. Exports increased 1.8 percent in Sep 2013 while imports increased 3.4 percent. The trade deficit increased from revised €5085 million in Aug 2013 to €5824 million in Sep 2013.

Table VF-5, France, Exports, Imports and Trade Balance, € Millions 

	Exports	Imports	Trade Balance
Sep 2013	36,657	42,481	-5,824
Aug	35,993	41,078	-5,085
Jul	36,522	41,711	-5,189
Jun	36,095	40,666	-4,571
May	35,881	41,691	-5,810
Apr	38,121	42,013	-3,892
Mar	36,141	40,658	-4,517
Feb	35,620	41,346	-5,726
Jan	36,426	41,897	-5,471
Dec 2012	37,320	43,024	-5,704
Nov	36,162	41,076	-4,914
Oct	37,276	42,192	-4,916
Sep	37,132	42,199	-5,067
Aug	37,965	44,248	-6,283
Jul	36,789	41,131	-4,342
Jun	36,621	43,247	-6,626
May	37,667	43,052	-5,385
Apr	36,573	42,602	-6,029
Mar	36,383	42,388	-6,005
Feb	37,149	43,487	-6,338
Jan	36,591	42,253	-5,662
Dec 2011	35,963	41,461	-5,498
Dec 2010	33,773	39,498	-5,725

Source: France, Direction générale des douanes et droits indirects

http://lekiosque.finances.gouv.fr/Appchiffre/portail_default.asp

Table VF-6 provides month and 12-month percentage changes of France’s exports and imports. Exports increased 1.8 percent in Sep 2013 and decreased 1.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2013. Imports increased 3.4 percent in Sep 2013 and increased 0.7 percent in 12 months. Growth of exports and imports has fluctuated in 2011, 2012 and 2013 because of price surges of commodities and raw materials. Weak economic conditions worldwide also influence trade performance.

Table VF-6, France, Exports and Imports, Month and 12-Month ∆%

	Exports Month ∆%	Exports 12-Month ∆%	Imports Month ∆%	Imports 12-Month ∆%
Sep 2013	1.8	-1.3	3.4	0.7
Aug	-1.4	-5.2	-1.5	-7.2
Jul	1.2	-0.7	2.6	1.4
Dec 2012		3.8		3.8
Dec 2011		6.5		5.0
Dec 2010		13.4		15.0
Dec 2009		-9.6		-2.0
Dec 2008		-6.9		-10.8
Dec 2007		5.9		8.1
Dec 2006		6.2		6.6
Dec 2005		11.6		15.4
Dec 2004		-3.7		5.8
Dec 2003		7.1		1.6

Source: France, Direction générale des douanes et droits indirects

http://lekiosque.finances.gouv.fr/Appchiffre/portail_default.asp

Annual data for France’s exports, imports and trade balance are provided in Table VF-7. France’s trade balance deteriorated sharply from 2007 to 2011 with the deficit increasing from €42,494 million in 2007 to €73,649 million in 2011. Annual growth rates of exports have not been sufficiently high to compensate for growth of imports driven in part by commodity price increases. In 2012, the trade deficit declined to €67,332 million with growth of exports of 3.1 percent and of imports of 1.4 percent.

Table VF-7, France, Exports, Imports and Balance Year € Millions and ∆%

	Exports € Millions	∆%	Imports € Millions	∆%	Balance € Millions
Sep 2013 12 Months	435,989		497,338		-61,349
Year
2012	441,436	3.1	508,768	1.4	-67,332
2011	428,233	8.4	501,882	12.2	-73,649
2010	395,037	14.0	447,474	14.2	-52,437
2009	346,481	-17.0	391,872	-17.3	-45,391
2008	417,636	2.7	473,853	5.5	-56,217
2007	406,487	3.0	448,981	5.8	-42,494
2006	394,621	9.5	424,549	10.4	-29,928
2005	360,376	4.4	384,588	9.6	-24,212
2004	345,256	5.4	350,996	7.0	-5,740
2003	327,653		327,884		-231

Source: France, Direction générale des douanes et droits indirects

http://lekiosque.finances.gouv.fr/Appchiffre/portail_default.asp

VG Italy. Table VG-IT provides percentage changes in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier of Italy’s expenditure components in chained volume measures. GDP has been declining at sharper rates from minus 0.6 percent in IVQ2011 to minus 3.0 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.5 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.2 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.9 percent in IIIQ2013. The aggregate demand components of consumption and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) have been declining at faster rates. The rates of decline of GDP, consumption and GFCF were somewhat milder in IIQ2013 than in IQ2013 and the final three quarters of 2012.

Table VG-IT, Italy, GDP and Expenditure Components, Chained Volume Measures, Quarter ∆% on Same Quarter Year Earlier

	GDP	Imports	Consumption	GFCF	Exports
2013
IIIQ2013	-1.9
II	-2.2	-4.6	-2.4	-5.9	0.2
IQ	-2.5	-5.0	-2.7	-7.1	-0.4
2012
IVQ	-3.0	-6.8	-4.3	-7.9	1.7
IIIQ	-2.8	-8.1	-4.3	-8.1	2.5
IIQ	-2.6	-7.5	-3.8	-8.3	2.5
IQ	-1.8	-8.9	-3.3	-7.6	2.1
2011
IVQ	-0.6	-6.9	-1.8	-3.2	3.1
IIIQ	0.5	0.1	-0.7	-2.1	5.6
IIQ	1.1	3.1	0.6	-0.7	7.0
IQ	1.4	8.8	0.9	0.6	10.9
2010
IVQ	2.3	15.3	1.1	0.8	13.2
IIIQ	1.8	13.2	1.3	2.4	12.0
IIQ	1.8	13.5	0.8	1.1	12.0
IQ	0.9	7.2	0.8	-2.0	7.3
2009
IVQ	-3.5	-6.4	0.2	-7.8	-9.3
IIIQ	-5.0	-12.2	-0.8	-12.6	-16.4
IIQ	-6.6	-17.9	-1.5	-13.6	-21.4
IQ	-6.9	-17.2	-1.7	-12.6	-22.8
2008
IVQ	-3.0	-8.2	-0.9	-8.3	-10.3
IIIQ	-1.9	-5.0	-0.8	-4.5	-3.9
IIQ	-0.2	-0.1	-0.3	-1.5	0.4
IQ	0.5	1.7	0.1	-1.0	2.9

GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/98480

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/103477

The Markit/ADACI Business Activity Index decreased from 52.7 in Sep to 50.5 in Oct, (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/cd59620a6b7a4ecd80e55ca91d034bad). Phil Smith, Economist at Markit and author of the Italy Services PMI^®, finds the index suggesting stabilizing economy with some potential for the first increase in GDP in over two years (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/cd59620a6b7a4ecd80e55ca91d034bad). The Markit/ADACI Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®), decreased marginally from 50.8 in Sep to 50.7 in Sep for the fourth consecutive reading above 50.0 with strong increase in foreign orders (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/6b3139c705f54ef7b6a5aacf0d3dd01a). Phil Smith, Economist at Markit and author of the Italian Manufacturing PMI^®, finds growth at a slower rate (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/6b3139c705f54ef7b6a5aacf0d3dd01a). Table IT provides the country data table for Italy.

Table IT, Italy, Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index	Oct month ∆%: -0.2 Oct 12-month ∆%: 0.8 Blog 11/17/13
Producer Price Index	Sep month ∆%: 0.0 Sep 12-month ∆%: -2.2 Blog 11/3/13
GDP Growth	IIIQ2013/IIQ2013 SA ∆%: minus 0.1 IIIQ2013/IIIQ2012 NSA ∆%: minus 1.9 Blog 3/17/13 6/16/13 8/11/13 9/15/13 11/17/13
Labor Report	Sep 2013 Participation rate 63.6% Employment ratio 55.4% Unemployment rate 12.5% Blog 11/3/13
Industrial Production	Sep month ∆%: 0.2 12 months CA ∆%: -3.0 Blog 11/17/13
Retail Sales	Aug month ∆%: 0.0 Aug 12-month ∆%: 0.2 Blog 10/27/13
Business Confidence	Mfg Oct 97.3, Jun 90.9 Construction Oct 80.8, Jun 71.6 Blog 11/3/13
Trade Balance	Balance Aug SA €2477 million versus Jul €2260 Exports Aug month SA ∆%: 1.7; Imports Aug month ∆%: 1.1 Exports 12 months Aug NSA ∆%: -4.4 Imports 12 months NSA ∆%: -9.8 Blog 10/20/13

Links to blog comments in Table IT:

11/3/2013 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/global-financial-risk-world-inflation.html

10/27/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/twenty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html

10/20/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/world-inflation-waves-regional-economic.html

10/13/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/imf-view-collapse-of-united-states.html

9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

8/11/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/recovery-without-hiring-loss-of-full.html

6/16/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/recovery-without-hiring-seven-million.html

3/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

Table VG-1 provides revised percentage changes of GDP in Italy of quarter on prior quarter and quarter on same quarter a year earlier. The GDP of Italy fell 0.1 percent in IIIQ2013 and 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.3 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.6 percent in IQ2013 and declined 2.5 percent relative to IQ2012. GDP had been growing during six consecutive quarters but at very low rates from IQ2010 to IIQ2011. Italy’s GDP has fallen in nine consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IIIQ2013 at increasingly higher rates of contraction from 0.2 percent in IIIQ2011 to 0.7 percent in IVQ2011, 1.1 percent in IQ2012 and 0.6 percent in IIQ2012 but at lower 0.4 percent in IIIQ2012. The pace of decline accelerated to minus 0.9 percent in IVQ2012 and 0.6 percent in IQ2013, declining to minus 0.3 percent in IIQ2013 and 0.1 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP contracted cumulatively 4.8 percent in nine consecutive quarterly contractions from IIIQ2011 to IIIQ2013 at the annual equivalent rate of 2.2 percent. The yearly rate has fallen from 2.3 percent in IVQ2010 to minus 2.5 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.2 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.9 percent in IIIQ2013. The fiscal adjustment of Italy is significantly more difficult with the economy not growing especially on the prospects of increasing government revenue. The strategy is for reforms to improve productivity, facilitating future fiscal consolidation.

Table VG-1, Italy, GDP ∆%

	Quarter ∆% Relative to Preceding Quarter	Quarter ∆% Relative to Same Quarter Year Earlier
IIIQ2013	-0.1	-1.9
IIQ2013	-0.3	-2.2
IQ2013	-0.6	-2.5
IVQ2012	-0.9	-3.0
IIIQ2012	-0.4	-2.8
IIQ2012	-0.6	-2.6
IQ2012	-1.1	-1.8
IVQ2011	-0.7	-0.6
IIIQ2011	-0.2	0.5
IIQ2011	0.2	1.1
IQ2011	0.1	1.4
IVQ2010	0.3	2.3
IIIQ2010	0.5	1.8
IIQ2010	0.6	1.8
IQ2010	0.9	0.9
IVQ2009	-0.1	-3.5
IIIQ2009	0.4	-5.0
IIQ2009	-0.3	-6.6
IQ2009	-3.5	-6.9
IVQ2008	-1.6	-3.0
IIIQ2008	-1.3	-1.9
IIQ2008	-0.5	-0.2
IQ2008	0.5	0.5
IV2007	-0.4	0.1
IIIQ2007	0.3	1.7
IIQ2007	0.2	2.0
IQ2007	0.0	2.4

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/103477

Italy’s industrial production increased 0.2 percent in Sep 2013 and fell 3.0 percent in 12 months. In Aug 2013, industrial production fell 0.2 percent and 4.6 percent in 12 months. Industrial production decreased 1.1 percent in Jul 2013 and fell 4.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2013, as shown in Table VG-1. In the quarter Sep-Nov 2012, industrial production fell cumulatively 3.2 percent, at the annual equivalent rate of 12.1 percent. Industrial production fell 7.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2012. There have been negative changes with oscillations in monthly industrial production. Industrial production fell 18.8 percent in 2009 after falling 3.2 percent in 2008.

Table VG-1, Italy, Industrial Production ∆%

			Index CA	∆% CA	Index	∆%
2011	-	-	101.1	1.1	100.3	0.3
2012	-	-	94.6	-6.4	94.2	-6.1
2012
	Index SA	Quarter	Index CA	4Q∆%	Index	∆%
IVQ2012	92.4	-2.2	92.5	-6.9	92.4	-5.7
2013
IQ2013	92.2	-0.2	92.5	-4.2	91.8	-6.1
IIQ2013	91.4	-0.9	95.1	-3.6	94.8	-3.3
IIIQ2013	90.5	-1.0	86.9	-3.9	86.7	-2.3
	Index SA	Month ∆%	Index CA	12M   ∆%	Index	12M  ∆%
2011
Sep	99.0	-3.4	106.3	-1.8	107.7	-1.8
Oct	98.5	-0.5	107.2	-3.8	102.9	-3.7
Nov	99.0	0.5	103.5	-3.5	103.9	-3.4
Dec	99.1	0.1	87.6	-2.3	87.1	-8.3
2012
Jan	96.5	-2.6	88.9	-4.9	89.2	-2.0
Feb	96.0	-0.5	96.2	-7.3	98.8	-3.6
Mar	96.2	0.2	104.8	-6.9	105.3	-6.9
Apr	95.0	-1.2	93.3	-9.2	89.5	-11.9
May	95.5	0.5	103.9	-5.8	105.2	-5.8
Jun	94.0	-1.6	99.0	-7.0	99.4	-7.0
Jul	94.6	0.6	108.4	-5.7	107.4	-2.7
Aug	95.1	0.5	61.3	-5.0	62.1	-4.9
Sep	93.8	-1.4	101.4	-4.6	96.5	-10.4
Oct	93.1	-0.7	101.0	-5.8	103.2	0.3
Nov	92.1	-1.1	95.4	-7.8	95.8	-7.8
Dec	92.0	-0.1	81.0	-7.5	78.1	-10.3
2013
Jan	92.9	1.0	85.9	-3.4	89.0	-0.2
Feb	92.2	-0.8	92.4	-4.0	91.2	-7.7
Mar	91.4	-0.9	99.2	-5.3	95.1	-9.7
Apr	91.2	-0.2	88.9	-4.7	89.3	-0.2
May	91.3	0.1	99.4	-4.3	100.7	-4.3
Jun	91.6	0.3	96.9	-2.1	94.3	-5.1
Jul	90.6	-1.1	103.8	-4.2	106.1	-1.2
Aug	90.4	-0.2	58.5	-4.6	57.4	-7.6
Sep	90.6	0.2	98.4	-3.0	96.6	0.1

SA: Seasonally Adjusted; CA: Calendar Adjusted; M: Month; Q: Quarter; 4Q: Four Quarter; 12M: 12 Months

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/103186

There is worsening trend of Italy’s industrial production in Chart VG-1 after Aug 2012, sharply deteriorating until Dec 2012 with marginal recovery in Jun 2013 followed by deterioration. Industrial production recovered until declines in Jul-Aug 2013. There is improvement in Sep 2013.

Chart VG-1, Italy, Industrial Production, 12-Month Percentage Changes

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/en/

VH United Kingdom. Annual data in Table VH-UK show the strong impact of the global recession in the UK with decline of GDP of 5.2 percent in 2009 after dropping 0.8 percent in 2008. Recovery of 1.7 percent in 2010 is relatively low in comparison with annual growth rates in 2007 and earlier years. Growth was only 1.1 percent in 2011 and 0.1 percent in 2012. The bottom part of Table VH-UK provides average growth rates of UK GDP since 1948. The UK economy grew at 2.6 percent per year on average between 1948 and 2012, which is relatively high for an advanced economy. The growth rate of GDP between 2000 and 2007 is higher at 3.1 percent. Growth in the current cyclical expansion has been only at 1.0 percent as advanced economies struggle with weak internal demand and world trade. GDP in 2012 was lower by 3.1 percent relative to 2007.

Table VH-UK, UK, Gross Domestic Product, ∆%

	∆% on Prior Year
1998	3.6
1999	2.9
2000	4.4
2001	2.2
2002	2.3
2003	3.9
2004	3.2
2005	3.2
2006	2.8
2007	3.4
2008	-0.8
2009	-5.2
2010	1.7
2011	1.1
2012	0.1
Average Growth Rates ∆% per Year
1948-2012	2.6
1950-1959	2.7
1960-1969	3.3
1970-1979	2.5
1980-1989	3.2
1990-1999	2.9
2000-2007	3.0
2007-2012*	-3.1
2000-2012	1.5

*Absolute change from 2007 to 2012

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

The Business Activity Index of the Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI^® increased from 60.3 in Sep to 62.5 in Sep, indicating increase in activity in every month since the beginning of 2013 at the highest rate since May 1997 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/886a8bb8c5af427ea8579b03fdb46ffe). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds continuing improvement in the UK’s economy with possible higher growth of GDP in IVQ2013 at the quarterly rate of 1.3 percent, which would be the highest since the period before the 2007 financial crisis while creation of new jobs exceeds 100,000 per quarter (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/886a8bb8c5af427ea8579b03fdb46ffe). The Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®) decreased marginally to 56.0 in Oct from 56.3 in Sep with continuing strength of production and new orders above long-term averages (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/9620f11fc5c748d8aaf417b28e6f9b1b). Respondents indicated increase in new foreign orders at the highest rate since Feb 2011. Rob Dobson, Senior Economist at Markit that compiles the Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI^®, finds that manufacturing conditions continue around the levels in Aug with output and new orders close to the fastest pace in 19 years (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/9620f11fc5c748d8aaf417b28e6f9b1b). Table UK provides the economic indicators for the United Kingdom.

Table UK, UK Economic Indicators

CPI	Oct month ∆%: 0.1 Oct 12-month ∆%: 2.2 Blog 11/17/13
Output/Input Prices	Output Prices: Oct 12-month NSA ∆%: 0.8; excluding food, petroleum ∆%: 0.9 Input Prices: Oct 12-month NSA ∆%: -0.3 Excluding ∆%: -0.4 Blog 11/17/13
GDP Growth	IIIQ2013 prior quarter ∆% 0.8; year earlier same quarter ∆%: 1.5 Blog 3/31/13 4/28/13 5/26/13 7/28/13 8/25/13 9/29/13 10/27/13
Industrial Production	Sep 2013/Sep 2012 ∆%: Production Industries 2.2; Manufacturing 0.8 Blog 11/10/13
Retail Sales	Sep month ∆%: 0.6 Sep 12-month ∆%: 2.2 Blog 10/20/13
Labor Market	Jul-Sep Unemployment Rate: 7.6%; Claimant Count 3.9%; Earnings Growth 0.7% Blog 11/17/13 LMGDP
Trade Balance	Balance SA Aug minus ₤3268 million Exports Sep ∆%: 0.1; Jul-Sep ∆%: 0.1 Imports Sep ∆%: 0.2 Jul-Sep ∆%: 1.8 Blog 11/17/13

Links to blog comments in Table UK:

11/10/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/global-financial-risk-mediocre-united.html

10/27/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/twenty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html

10/20/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/world-inflation-waves-regional-economic.html

9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html

7/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html

5/26/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

4/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_28.html

03/31/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

The UK Office for National Statistics provides important analysis of the relation of GDP and the labor market (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q3-2013--november-labour-market-update/index.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2013-q2--august-gdp-update/index.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2013-q2--august-labour-market-update/index.html

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2013-q1--may-labour-market-update/sum-may13-labour.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2013-q1--may-labour-market-update/index.html

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2012-q4--january-gdp-update/sum-jan13.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2012-q4--february-labour-market-update/sum-2012-q4---february-labour-update.html). The UK economy grew 0.8 percent in IIIQ2013 and 1.5 percent over the past year but output is still 2.5 below the level before the global recession in IQ2008 (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q3-2013--november-labour-market-update/sum-november-labour.html). Chart VH-1 of the UK Office for National Statistics (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q3-2013--november-labour-market-update/sum-november-labour.html) shows accelerating output with relatively fast increases in employment and hours worked.

Chart VH-1, UK, Employment Level Ages 16 and Over, Total Weekly Hours and GDP, 2008-2013

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q3-2013--november-labour-market-update/sum-november-labour.html

Table VH-2 of the UK Office for National Statistics provides important analysis of the relation of GDP and the labor market (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q3-2013--november-labour-market-update/index.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2013-q2--august-gdp-update/index.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2013-q2--august-labour-market-update/index.html

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2013-q1--may-labour-market-update/sum-may13-labour.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2013-q1--may-labour-market-update/index.html

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2012-q4--january-gdp-update/sum-jan13.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/2012-q4--february-labour-market-update/sum-2012-q4---february-labour-update.html). The UK economy grew 0.8 percent in IIIQ2013 and 1.5 percent over the past year but output is still 2.5 below the level before the global recession in IQ2008 (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q3-2013--november-labour-market-update/sum-november-labour.html). While GDP in IIIQ2013 is 2.5 percent below the level in IQ2008, total weekly hours increased 1.4 percent relative to the level in IQ2008 and employment increased 1.5 percent. Recovery of employment levels is challenging in most advanced economies.

Table VH-1, UK, Indices of Quarterly Employment Ages 16 and Over, Total Hours Worked and GDP, 2008-2013

			Index, Q1 2008 =100
	Total weekly hours, Aged 16 +	GDP, CVM	Employment, Aged 16 +
	YBUS	ABMI	MGRZ
2008 Q1	100.0	100.0	100.0
Q2	98.9	99.1	100.1
Q3	98.9	97.7	99.6
Q4	98.3	95.6	99.4
2009 Q1	96.7	93.2	98.9
Q2	96.3	92.8	97.9
Q3	95.8	92.8	97.8
Q4	95.8	93.2	97.9
2010 Q1	95.7	93.7	97.6
Q2	96.5	94.7	98.2
Q3	97.0	95.0	98.9
Q4	97.4	94.8	98.7
2011 Q1	97.4	95.3	99.0
Q2	96.3	95.4	99.0
Q3	97.1	95.9	98.5
Q4	97.3	95.8	98.8
2012 Q1	98.0	95.8	99.2
Q2	98.5	95.4	99.9
Q3	99.6	96.0	100.2
Q4	99.8	95.7	100.8
2013 Q1	100.1	96.1	100.7
Q2	100.4	96.7	100.9
Q3	101.4	97.5	101.5

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/gdp-and-the-labour-market/q3-2013--november-labour-market-update/sum-november-labour.html

Labor market statistics of the UK for the quarter Jul-Sep 2013 are provided in Table VH-2. The unemployment rate decreased to 7.6 percent and the number unemployed decreased 48,000 in the year, reaching 2.466 million. The employment rate is 71.8 percent. Earnings growth including bonuses increased 0.7 percent over the earlier year. The claimant count or those receiving unemployment benefits stands at 3.9 percent, down 0.1 percentage points on the month and down 0.8 percentage points on the year.

Table VH-2, UK, Labor Market Statistics

	Quarter Jul-Sep 2013
Unemployment Rate	7.6% down 0.2 on quarter and down 0.2 from year earlier
Number Unemployed	(1) Down 48,000 on quarter and down 48,000 from year earlier to reach 2.466 million (2) Unemployment rate 16 to 24 years of age 21.0% of that age group (3) Unemployed 16 to 24 years excluding those in full-time education 664,000 (301,000 in full-time education) down 13,000 on quarter; unemployment rate 19.0% down 0.7 % Points
Number Unemployed > one and two years	(1) Number unemployed over one year: 890,000, down 19,000 on quarter, down 4,000 on year (2) Number unemployed over two years: 458,000, down 15,000 on quarter, up 16,000 on year
Inactivity Rate 16-64 Years of Age (Definition: Not in employment but have not been seeking employment in the past four weeks or are unable to start work in two weeks)	(1) 22.2%, down 0.2 % points on quarter, down 0.4 on year (2) Economically inactive 16-64 years down 69,000 on quarter and down 149,000 on year to 8.924 million
Employment Rate	71.8%, up 0.3 on quarter, up 0.6 % points on year
Number Employed	(1) Up 177,000 on quarter, +378,000 on year to 29.953 million                              (2) Number of employees up 148,000 on quarter to 25.468 million (3) Self-employed rose 15,000 on quarter to 4.197 million (4) Full-time 21.868 million, up 157,000 on quarter, up 412,000 on year (5) 1.46 million working part-time and self-employed who could not find full-time jobs
Earnings Growth Rates Year on Year	(1) Total +0.7% (including bonuses) over year earlier; regular 0.8%; private sector 1.1% on year earlier, public sector fell 0.4% on year earlier   (2) Regular private 1.1 % (excluding bonuses); regular public fell 0.1% on year earlier
Full-time and Part-time	(1) Number full-time 21.824 million, up 148,000 on quarter (2) Number part-time 8.045 million, up 38,000 on quarter
Claimant Count (Jobseeker’s Allowance, JSA)	(1) Latest estimate: 1.306 million; down 41,700 in month, down 266,500 on year earlier (2) Claimant count 3.9%, down 0.1 on month and down 0.8 % points on year
Labor Productivity	(1) Output per worker changed 0.5% from IQ2013 to IIQ2013 (2) Unit labor costs rose 2.2% from IQ2013 to IIQ2013

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/november-2013/index.html

Table VH-3 provides indicators of the labor force survey of the UK for Jul-Sep 2013 and earlier quarters. There has been improvement in UK labor markets with the rate of unemployment decreasing from 7.8 percent in Jul-Sep 2012 to 7.6 percent in Jul-Sep 2013.

Table VH-3, UK, Labor Force Survey Indicators

	LFHP	EMP	PART	UNE	RATE
Jul-Sep 2011	40,169	29,063	70.2	2,624	8.3
Jul-Sep 2012	40,198	29,576	71.2	2,514	7.8
Oct-Dec 2012	40,214	29,751	71.6	2,503	7.8
Jan-Mar 2013	40,231	29,708	71.4	2,518	7.8
Apr-Jun 2013	40,248	29,777	71.5	2,514	7.8
Jul-Sep 2013	40,284	29,953	71.8	2,466	7.6

Notes: LFHP: Labor Force Household Population Ages 16 to 64 in thousands; EMP: Employed Ages 16 and over in thousands; PART: Employment as % of Population Ages 16 to 64; UNE: Unemployed Ages 16 and over in thousands; Rate: Number Unemployed Ages 16 and over as % of Employed plus Unemployed

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/november-2013/index.html

The UK’s trade account is shown in Table VH-4. In Sep 2013, the UK ran a deficit in trade of goods and services (total trade) of ₤3268 million. The deficit in trade of goods was ₤9816 million and ₤9097 million in goods excluding oil. A surplus in services of ₤6548 million contributed to the smaller overall deficit in goods and services (-₤9816 million plus ₤6548 million equal to -₤3268 million). Services have contributed to lower trade account deficits and softened the impact of the global recession on the UK economy. Exports of goods and services increased 0.1 percent in Sep 2013 and increased 0.1 percent in the quarter Jul-Sep 2013 relative to the same quarter a year earlier with imports increasing 0.2 percent in Sep and increasing 1.8 percent in Jul-Sep 2013 relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Excluding oil, UK exports of goods decreased 1.9 percent in Sep 2013 and increased 0.3 percent in Jul-Sep 2013 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 1.7 percent in Sep and increased 3.7 percent in Jul-Sep 2013 relative to a year earlier. The great advantage of the UK similar to the US is the substantial surplus in services. Services exports increased 1.5 percent in Sep and increased 0.4 percent in Jul-Sep 2013 relative to a year earlier and imports changed 0.0 percent in Sep and decreased 0.2 percent in Jul-Sep 2013 relative to a year earlier.

Table VH-4, Value of UK Trade in Goods and Services, Balance of Payments Basis, ₤ Million  and ∆%

	₤ Million SA Sep 2013	Month ∆%    Sep 2013	Jul-Sep 2013 ∆% Jul-Sep 2012
Total Trade
Exports	41,743	0.1	0.1
Imports	45,011	0.2	1.8
Balance	-3,268
Trade in Goods
Exports	25,099	-0.7	-0.1
Imports	34,915	0.2	2.5
Balance	-9,816
Trade in Goods Excluding Oil
Exports	21,846	-1.9	0.3
Imports	30,943	1.7	3.7
Balance	-9,097
Trade in Services
Exports	16,644	1.5	0.4
Imports	10,096	0.0	-0.2
Balance	6,548

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/uktrade/uk-trade/september-2013/index.html

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013