Cumulative Growth of US Manufacturing of 1.2 Percent From Jan 2021 to Jun 2021 at Annual Equivalent 2.4 Percent and Decreasing 0.1 Percent in Jun 2021, US Manufacturing 10.0 Percent Higher Than A Year Earlier in the Global Recession, with Output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the Lockdown of Economic activity in the COVID-19 Event and the Through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021), US Manufacturing Underperforming Below Trend in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth Underperforming Below Trend Worldwide, Squeeze of Economic Activity by Carry Trades Induced by Zero Interest Rates, United States Higher Inflation, World Inflation Waves, Theory and Reality of Economic History, Cyclical Slow Growth Not Secular Stagnation and Monetary Policy Based on Fear of Deflation, Collapse of United States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth Underperforming Below Trend Worldwide, World Cyclical Slow Growth, Stagflation Risk and Government Intervention in Globalization
Carlos M. Pelaez
© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021.
I United States Industrial Production
II Squeeze of Economic Activity by Carry Trades Induced by Zero Interest Rates
I World Inflation Waves
IA Appendix: Transmission of Unconventional Monetary Policy
IB1 Theory
IB2 Policy
IB3 Evidence
IB4 Unwinding Strategy
IC United States Inflation
IC Long-term US Inflation
ID Current US Inflation
IE Theory and Reality of Economic History, Cyclical Slow Growth Not Secular Stagnation and Monetary Policy Based on Fear of Deflation
II IB Collapse of United States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth Underperforming Below Trend Worldwide
IV Global Inflation
V World Economic Slowdown
VA United States
VB Japan
VC China
VD Euro Area
VE Germany
VF France
VG Italy
VH United Kingdom
VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets
VII Economic Indicators
VIII Interest Rates
IX Conclusion
References
Appendixes
Appendix I The Great Inflation
IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies
IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact
IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort
IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis
V World Economic Slowdown. Table V-1 is constructed with the database of the IMF (https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/index.aspx) to show GDP in dollars in 2018 and the growth rate of real GDP of the world and selected regional countries from 2018 to 2021. The data illustrate the concept often repeated of “two-speed recovery” of the world economy from the recession of 2007 to 2009. There is a major change in the sharp contraction of world real GDP of 3.1 percent in 2020 in the probable global recession originating in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The IMF has changed its measurement of growth of the world economy to 3.6 percent in 2018 and reducing the forecast rate of growth to 2.9 percent in 2019, minus 3.1 percent in 2020 and 5.8 percent in 2021. Slow-speed recovery occurs in the “major advanced economies” of the G7 that are projected to grow at much lower rates than world output, 0.4 percent on average from 2018 to 2021, in contrast with 2.2 percent for the world as a whole. While the world would grow 9.3 percent in the four years from 2018 to 2021, the G7 as a whole would grow 1.6 percent. The “two speed” concept is in reference to the growth of the 150 countries labeled as emerging and developing economies (EMDE). The EMDEs would grow cumulatively 14.2 percent or at the average yearly rate of 3.4 percent.
Table V-1, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Real GDP Growth
| GDP USD Billions 2018 | Real GDP ∆% | Real GDP ∆% | Real GDP ∆% | Real GDP ∆% | |
| World | 135,762 | 3.6 | 2.9 | -3.1 | 5.8 |
| G7 | 40,783 | 2.0 | 1.6 | -6.2 | 4.5 |
| Canada | 1,842 | 2.0 | 1.6 | -6.2 | 4.3 |
| France | 2,970 | 1.7 | 1.3 | -7.2 | 4.5 |
| DE | 4,343 | 1.5 | 0.6 | -7.0 | 5.2 |
| Italy | 2,406 | 0.8 | 0.3 | -9.1 | 4.8 |
| Japan | 5,578 | 0.3 | 0.7 | -5.2 | 3.0 |
| UK | 3,065 | 1.3 | 1.4 | -6.5 | 4.0 |
| US | 20,580 | 2.9 | 2.3 | -5.9 | 4.7 |
| Euro Area | NA | 1.9 | 1.2 | -7.5 | 4.7 |
| DE | 4,343 | 1.5 | 0.6 | -7.0 | 5.2 |
| France | 2,970 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 7.2 | 4.5 |
| Italy | 2,406 | 0.8 | 0.3 | -9.1 | 4.8 |
| POT | 334 | 2.6 | 2.2 | -8.0 | 5.0 |
| Ireland | 389 | 8.3 | 5.5 | -6.8 | 6.3 |
| Greece | 312 | 1.9 | 1.9 | -10.0 | 5.1 |
| Spain | 1,854 | 2.4 | 2.0 | -8.0 | 4.3 |
| EMDE | 80,401 | 4.5 | 3.7 | -1.1 | 6.6 |
| Brazil | 3,383 | 1.3 | 1.1 | -5.3 | 2.9 |
| Russia | 4,258 | 2.5 | 1.3 | -5.5 | 3.5 |
| India | 10,413 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 7.4 |
| China | 25,294 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 1.2 | 9.2 |
Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries); POT: Portugal
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook databank
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/index.aspx
Continuing high rates of unemployment in advanced economies constitute another characteristic of the database of the WEO (Continuing high rates of unemployment in advanced economies constitute another characteristic of the database of the WEO (https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2019/02/weodata/index.aspx). Table V-2 is constructed with the WEO database to provide rates of unemployment from 2017 to 2021 for major countries and regions. In fact, unemployment rates for 2017 in Table V-2 are high for all countries: unusually high for countries with high rates most of the time and unusually high for countries with low rates most of the time. The rates of unemployment are particularly high in 2017 for the countries with sovereign debt difficulties in Europe: 8.9 percent for Portugal (POT), 6.7 percent for Ireland, 21.5 percent for Greece, 17.2 percent for Spain and 11.3 percent for Italy, which is lower but still high. The G7 rate of unemployment is 5.0 percent. Unemployment rates are not likely to decrease substantially if relative slow cyclical growth persists in advanced economies. There are sharp increases in the rates of unemployment in 2020 in the probable global recession originating in the lockdown of economy activity in the COVID-19 event. The rate of unemployment increases to 7.8 percent for the G7 countries and 10.4 percent for the euro area.
Table V-2, IMF World Economic Outlook Database Projections of Unemployment Rate as Percent of Labor Force
| % Labor Force 2017 | % Labor Force 2018 | % Labor Force 2019 | % Labor Force 2020 | % Labor Force 2021 | |
| World | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| G7 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 7.8 | 6.9 |
| Canada | 6.3 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 7.2 |
| France | 9.4 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 10.4 | 10.4 |
| DE | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 3.5 |
| Italy | 11.3 | 10.6 | 10.0 | 12.7 | 10.5 |
| Japan | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 2.3 |
| UK | 4.4 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 4.4 |
| US | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 10.4 | 9.1 |
| Euro Area | 9.1 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 10.4 | 8.9 |
| DE | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 3.5 |
| France | 9.4 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 10.4 | 10.4 |
| Italy | 11.3 | 10.6 | 10.0 | 12.7 | 10.5 |
| POT | 8.9 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 13.9 | 8.7 |
| Ireland | 6.7 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 12.1 | 7.9 |
| Greece | 21.5 | 19.3 | 17.3 | 22.3 | 19.0 |
| Spain | 17.2 | 15.3 | 14.1 | 20.8 | 17.5 |
| EMDE | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Brazil | 12.8 | 12.3 | 11.9 | 14.7 | 13.5 |
| Russia | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 4.8 |
| India | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| China | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 3.8 |
Notes; DE: Germany; EMDE: Emerging and Developing Economies (150 countries)
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/index.aspx
There are references to adverse periods as “lost decades.” There is a more prolonged and adverse period in Table V-3A: the lost economic cycle of the Global Recession with economic growth underperforming below trend worldwide. Economic contractions were relatively high but not comparable to the decline of GDP during the Great Depression. In fact, during the Great Depression in the four years of 1930 to 1933, US GDP in constant dollars fell 26.3 percent cumulatively and fell 45.3 percent in current dollars (Pelaez and Pelaez, Financial Regulation after the Global Recession (2009a), 150-2, Pelaez and Pelaez, Globalization and the State, Vol. II (2009b), 205-7 and revisions in http://bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). Data are available for the 1930s only on a yearly basis. The contraction of GDP in the current cycle of the Global Recession was much lower, 4.0 percent (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/06/us-gdp-growing-continuing-recovery-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/05/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-64-percent-in_29.html). US economic growth has been at only 2.0 percent on average in the cyclical expansion in the 47 quarters from IIIQ2009 to IQ2021 and in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021). Boskin (2010Sep) measures that the US economy grew at 6.2 percent in the first four quarters and 4.5 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the second quarter of 1975; and at 7.7 percent in the first four quarters and 5.8 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the first quarter of 1983 (Professor Michael J. Boskin, Summer of Discontent, Wall Street Journal, Sep 2, 201 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882304575465462926649950.html). There are new calculations using the revision of US GDP and personal income data since 1929 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) and the third estimate of GDP for IQ2021 (https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2021-06/gdp1q21_3rd_1.pdf). The average of 7.7 percent in the first four quarters of major cyclical expansions is in contrast with the rate of growth in the first four quarters of the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010 of only 2.8 percent obtained by dividing GDP of $15,557.3 billion in IIQ2010 by GDP of $15,134.1 billion in IIQ2009 {[($15,557.3/$15,134.1) -1]100 = 2.8%], or accumulating the quarter on quarter growth rates (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/06/us-gdp-growing-continuing-recovery-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/05/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-64-percent-in_29.html). The expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1986 was at the average annual growth rate of 5.7 percent, 5.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1986, 5.1 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1986, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1989, 4.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1989, 4.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1989, 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1989. 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1990, 4.4 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1990, 4.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1990, 4.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1990, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1992, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1994, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1994, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1994 and at 7.9 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/06/us-gdp-growing-continuing-recovery-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/05/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-64-percent-in_29.html). The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dates a contraction of the US from IQ1990 (Jul) to IQ1991 (Mar) (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html). The expansion lasted until another contraction beginning in IQ2001 (Mar). US GDP contracted 1.3 percent from the pre-recession peak of $8983.9 billion of chained 2009 dollars in IIIQ1990 to the trough of $8865.6 billion in IQ1991 (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IQ2021 and in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021) would have accumulated to 47.9 percent. GDP in IQ2021 would be $23,318.7 billion (in constant dollars of 2012) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $4232.3 billion than actual $19,086.4 billion. There are more than four trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 27.4 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 15.8 percent of the effective labor force with the largest part originating in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/07/increase-in-jun-2021-of-nonfarm-payroll.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/06/increase-in-may-2021-of-nonfarm-payroll.html). Unemployment is decreasing while employment is increasing in initial adjustment of the lockdown of economic activity in the global recession resulting from the COVID-19 event (https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-june-2021.htm). US GDP in IQ2021 is 18.2 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $15,762.0 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $19,086.4 billion in IQ2021 or 21.1 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.5 percent. Professor John H. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. Cochrane (2016May02) measures GDP growth in the US at average 3.5 percent per year from 1950 to 2000 and only at 1.76 percent per year from 2000 to 2015 with only at 2.0 percent annual equivalent in the current expansion. Cochrane (2016May02) proposes drastic changes in regulation and legal obstacles to private economic activity. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 3.0 percent per year from Jun 1919 to Jun 2021. Growth at 3.0 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 106.8161 in Dec 2007 to 159.1986 in Jun 2021. The actual index NSA in Jun 2021 is 100.1180 which is 37.1 percent below trend. The underperformance of manufacturing in Mar-Aug 2020 originates partly in the earlier global recession augmented by the current global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19. Manufacturing grew at the average annual rate of 3.3 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2006. Growth at 3.3 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 106.8161 in Dec 2007 to 165.5736 in Jun 2021. The actual index NSA in Jun 2021 is 100.1180, which is 39.5 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 1.8 percent between Dec 1986 and Jun 2021. Using trend growth of 1.8 percent per year, the index would increase to 135.9038 in Jun 2021. The output of manufacturing at 100.1180 in Jun 2021 is 26.3 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Using the NAICS (North American Industry Classification System), manufacturing output fell from the high of 108.5167 in Jun 2007 to the low of 84.7321 in May 2009 or 21.9 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased from 84.7321 in Apr 2009 to 100.6102 in Jun 2021 or 18.7 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased at the annual equivalent rate of 3.5 percent from Dec 1986 to Dec 2006. Growth at 3.5 percent would increase the NAICS manufacturing output index from 104.6868 in Dec 2007 to 166.5661 in Jun 2021. The NAICS index at 100.6102 in Jun 2021 is 39.6 below trend. The NAICS manufacturing output index grew at 1.7 percent annual equivalent from Dec 1999 to Dec 2006. Growth at 1.7 percent would raise the NAICS manufacturing output index from 104.6868 in Dec 2007 to 131.4392 in Jun 2021. The NAICS index at 100.6102 in Jun 2021 is 23.5 percent below trend under this alternative calculation.
Table V-3A, Cycle 2007-2020, Percentage Contraction, Average Growth Rate in Expansion, Average Growth Rate in Whole Cycle and GDP Percent Below Trend
| Contraction ∆% | Expansion Average ∆% | Whole Cycle Average ∆% | Below Trend Percent | |
| USA | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 18.2 |
| Japan | 8.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | NA |
| Euro Area 19 | 5.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 23.1 |
| France | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 16.1 |
| Germany | 7.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | NA |
| UK | 5.9 | 0.2 | 0.064 | 26.0 |
Note: AV: Average. Expansion and Whole Cycle AV ∆% calculated with quarterly growth, seasonally adjusted and quarterly adjusted when applicable, rates and converted into annual equivalent except for average quarterly rate for the UK. Combines the Global Recession after 2007 and the COVID-19 Global Recession after IQ2020.
Data reported periodically in this blog.
Source: Country Statistical Agencies https://www.bls.gov/bls/other.htm https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/related-sites.html
Manufacturing is underperforming in the lost cycle of the global recession. Manufacturing (NAICS) in Jun 2021 is lower by 7.3 percent relative to the peak in Jun 2007, as shown in Chart V-3A. Manufacturing (SIC) in Jun 2021 at 100.1180 is lower by 9.7 percent relative to the peak at 110.8954 in Jun 2007. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 3.0 percent per year from Jun 1919 to Jun 2021. Growth at 3.0 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 106.8161 in Dec 2007 to 159.1986 in Jun 2021. The actual index NSA in Jun 2021 is 100.1180 which is 37.1 percent below trend. The underperformance of manufacturing in Mar-Aug 2020 originates partly in the earlier global recession augmented by the current global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19. Manufacturing grew at the average annual rate of 3.3 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2006. Growth at 3.3 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 106.8161 in Dec 2007 to 165.5736 in Jun 2021. The actual index NSA in Jun 2021 is 100.1180, which is 39.5 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 1.8 percent between Dec 1986 and Jun 2021. Using trend growth of 1.8 percent per year, the index would increase to 135.9038 in Jun 2021. The output of manufacturing at 100.1180 in Jun 2021 is 26.3 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Using the NAICS (North American Industry Classification System), manufacturing output fell from the high of 108.5167 in Jun 2007 to the low of 84.7321 in May 2009 or 21.9 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased from 84.7321 in Apr 2009 to 100.6102 in Jun 2021 or 18.7 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased at the annual equivalent rate of 3.5 percent from Dec 1986 to Dec 2006. Growth at 3.5 percent would increase the NAICS manufacturing output index from 104.6868 in Dec 2007 to 166.5661 in Jun 2021. The NAICS index at 100.6102 in Jun 2021 is 39.6 below trend. The NAICS manufacturing output index grew at 1.7 percent annual equivalent from Dec 1999 to Dec 2006. Growth at 1.7 percent would raise the NAICS manufacturing output index from 104.6868 in Dec 2007 to 131.4392 in Jun 2021. The NAICS index at 100.6102 in Jun 2021 is 23.5 percent below trend under this alternative calculation.
Chart V-3A, United States Manufacturing (NAICS) NSA, Dec 2007 to Jun 2021
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm
Chart V-3A, United States Manufacturing (NAICS) NSA, Jun 2007 to Jun 2021
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm
Chart V-3B provides the civilian noninstitutional population of the United States, or those available for work. The civilian noninstitutional population increased from 231.713 million in Jun 2007 to 261.338 million in Jun 2021 or 29.625 million.
Chart V-3B, United States, Civilian Noninstitutional Population, Million, NSA, Jan 2007 to Jun 2021
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Chart V-3C provides nonfarm payroll manufacturing jobs in the United States from Jan 2007 to Jun 2021. Nonfarm payroll manufacturing jobs fell from 13.987 million in Jun 2007 to 12.389 million in Jun 2021, or 1.598 million.
Chart V-3C, United States, Payroll Manufacturing Jobs, NSA, Jan 2007 to Jun 2021, Thousands
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Chart V-3D provides the index of US manufacturing (NAICS) from Jan 1972 to Jun 2021. The index continued increasing during the decline of manufacturing jobs after the early 1980s. There are likely effects of changes in the composition of manufacturing with also changes in productivity and trade. There is sharp decline in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. There is initial recovery in May 2020-Jun 2021.
Chart V-3D, United States Manufacturing (NAICS) NSA, Jan 1972 to Jun 2021
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm
Chart V-3E provides the US noninstitutional civilian population, or those in condition of working, from Jan 1948, when first available, to Jun 2021. The noninstitutional civilian population increased from 170.042 million in Jun 1981 to 261.338 million in Jun 2021 or 91.296 million.
Chart V-3E, United States, Civilian Noninstitutional Population, Million, NSA, Jan 1948 to Jun 2021
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Chart V-3F provides manufacturing jobs in the United States from Jan 1939 to May 2021. Nonfarm payroll manufacturing jobs decreased from a peak of 18.890 million in Jun 1981 to 12.389 million in Jun 2021.
Chart V-3F, United States, Payroll Manufacturing Jobs, NSA, Jan 1939 to Jun 2021, Thousands
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Table V-3B, Germany, Manufacturing Orders and Manufacturing Output, ∆% Month and 12 Months
| MFG New Orders Month ∆% | MFG New Orders 12 Months ∆% | MFG Output Month ∆% | MFG Output 12 Month ∆% | |
| May 2021 | -3.7 | 54.3 | -0.5 | 20.5 |
| Apr | 1.2 | 80.2 | -0.3 | 35.2 |
| Mar | 2.8 | 33.0 | 0.8 | 9.7 |
| Feb | 1.9 | 7.2 | -2.1 | -5.1 |
| Jan | 0.7 | -4.3 | -0.2 | -9.6 |
| Dec 2020 | -1.7 | 10.7 | 1.5 | 3.1 |
| Nov | 2.8 | 9.5 | 1.2 | -1.1 |
| Oct | 3.5 | 3.9 | 3.5 | -3.6 |
| Sep | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.5 | -5.3 |
| Aug | 4.5 | -3.8 | -0.3 | -14.0 |
| Jul | 5.0 | -6.4 | 1.9 | -11.2 |
| Jun | 28.3 | -6.3 | 11.5 | -6.9 |
| May | 12.8 | -33.5 | 11.7 | -28.3 |
| Apr | -27.7 | -38.4 | -22.1 | -30.4 |
| Mar | -15.6 | -12.1 | -10.9 | -8.5 |
| Feb | -2.6 | 0.3 | 1.5 | -3.2 |
| Jan | 6.1 | -1.0 | 2.4 | -4.1 |
| Dec 2019 | -1.3 | -7.1 | -1.6 | -4.5 |
| Nov | -1.1 | -8.5 | 0.5 | -6.9 |
| Oct | -0.5 | -5.4 | -1.2 | -5.6 |
| Sep | 1.2 | -1.8 | -1.1 | -1.1 |
| Aug | -0.6 | -9.0 | 0.3 | -7.4 |
| Jul | -0.3 | -1.8 | -0.6 | -0.6 |
| Jun | 1.5 | -11.0 | -1.0 | -14.4 |
| May | -1.7 | -3.6 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Apr | -0.7 | -5.2 | -2.7 | -3.9 |
| Mar | 1.6 | -6.2 | 0.7 | -3.4 |
| Feb | -4.0 | -7.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Jan | -3.1 | -3.6 | -1.1 | -3.1 |
| Dec 2018 | 1.9 | -8.2 | 1.2 | -6.7 |
| Dec 2017 | 2.7 | 3.9 | -0.4 | 3.7 |
| Dec 2016 | 4.4 | 11.2 | -1.8 | 2.0 |
| Dec 2015 | -1.4 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
Source: Federal Statistical Agency of Germany, https://www.destatis.de/EN/Home/_node.html
Table V-3 provides the latest available estimates of GDP for the regions and countries followed in this blog from IQ2012 to IQ2021 available now for all countries. Growth is weak throughout most of the world.
- Japan. The GDP of Japan increased 1.4 percent in IQ2012, 5.7 percent at SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) and increased 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier but part of the jump could be the low level a year earlier because of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan is experiencing difficulties with the overvalued yen because of worldwide capital flight originating in zero interest rates with risk aversion in an environment of softer growth of world trade. Japan’s GDP fell 0.9 percent in IIQ2012 at the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of minus 3.6 percent, which is much lower than 5.7 percent in IQ2012. Growth of 2.8 percent in IIQ2012 in Japan relative to IIQ2011 has effects of the low level of output because of Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IIIQ2012 at the SAAR of minus 1.5 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 at the SAAR of minus 0.3 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan grew 1.4 percent in IQ2013 at the SAAR of 5.7 percent and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.9 percent in IIQ2013 at the SAAR of 3.6 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP grew 1.0 percent in IIIQ2013 at the SAAR of 3.9 percent and increased 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Japan’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent at the SAAR of minus 0.5 percent, increasing 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IQ2014 at the SAAR of 3.4 percent and increased 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Japan’s GDP fell 1.8 percent at the SAAR of minus 7.2 percent and fell 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 at the SAAR of 0.4 percent and fell 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, Japan’s GDP grew 0.5 percent, at the SAAR of 2.0 percent, decreasing 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 1.5 percent in IQ2015 at the SAAR of 6.3 percent and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2015 at the SAAR of 0.4 percent and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2015 at the SAAR of 0.4 percent and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.1 percent in IVQ2015 at the SAAR of minus 0.4 percent and grew 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, the GDP of Japan increased 0.7 percent at the SAAR of 2.9 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IIQ2016 at the SAAR of minus 0.9 percent and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of Japan increased 0.2 percent at the SAAR of 0.8 percent and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2016 at the SAAR of 1.2 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, the GDP of Japan increased 0.8 percent at the SAAR of 3.1 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2017 at the SAAR of 0.9 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, the GDP of Japan increased 0.8 percent at the SAAR of 3.2 percent and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2017, at the SAAR of 1.7 percent, and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, the GDP of Japan changed 0.0 percent, at the SAAR of 0.0 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2018, at the SAAR of 0.0 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, the GDP of Japan contracted 0.7 percent at the SAAR of minus 2.7 percent and decreased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2018, at the SAAR of 1.8 percent and decreased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, the GDP of Japan increased 0.4 percent at the SAAR of 1.4 percent and grew 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2019, at the SAAR of 0.5 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, the GDP of Japan increased 0.1 percent at the SAAR of 0.5 percent and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP decreased 1.9 percent in IVQ2019, at the SAAR of minus 7.4 percent and decreased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2020, the GDP of Japan contracted 0.5 percent at the SAAR of minus 2.0 percent and decreased 2.1 percent relative to a year. The GDP of Japan contracted 8.1 percent in IIQ2020 at the SAAR of minus 28.6 percent and decreased 10.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2020, the GDP of Japan increased 5.3 percent at the SAAR of 22.9 percent and decreased 5.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 2.8 percent in IVQ2020 at the SAAR of 11.7 percent and decreased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2021, the GDP of Japan contracted 1.0 percent at the SAAR of minus 3.9 percent and decreased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier.
- China. China’s GDP grew 1.9 percent in IQ2012, annualizing to 7.8 percent, and 8.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 2.1 percent in IIQ2012, which annualizes to 8.7 percent, and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 1.8 percent in IIIQ2012, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and 7.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, China grew at 2.0 percent, which annualizes at 8.2 percent, and 8.1 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, China grew at 1.9 percent, which annualizes at 7.8 percent, and 7.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, China grew at 1.8 percent, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 2.1 percent in IIIQ2013, which annualizes at 8.7 percent, and increased 7.9 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 1.6 percent in IVQ2013, which annualized to 6.6 percent, and 7.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 7.5 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent in IQ2014 that is equivalent to 7.4 percent per year. GDP grew 7.6 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is annual equivalent 7.4 percent. In IIIQ2014, GDP grew 7.2 percent relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is 7.4 percent in annual equivalent. GDP grew 1.7 percent in IVQ2014, which is 7.0 percent in annual equivalent and 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2015, GDP grew 1.9 percent, which is equivalent to 7.8 in a year and 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 1.8 percent in IIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.4 percent in a year, and grew 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.7 percent in IIIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent in a year, and grew 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.6 percent in IVQ2015, which is equivalent to 6.6 percent in a year and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, GDP grew at 1.6 percent, which is equivalent to 6.6 percent in a year, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.8 percent in IIQ2016, which is annual equivalent to 7.4 percent, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, GDP grew at 1.7 percent, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent in a year and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, GDP grew at 1.6 percent, equivalent to 6.6 percent in a year, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 7.0 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased at 1.8 percent, which is 7.4 percent in annual equivalent. In IIQ2017, GDP grew at 1.7 percent, which is annual equivalent at 7.0 percent, and increased 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.6 percent in IIIQ2017, which is annual equivalent at 6.6 percent, and increased at 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, GDP grew 1.6 percent, which is annual equivalent to 6.6 percent, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.9 percent in IQ2018, which is annual equivalent at 7.8 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2018, GDP grew at 1.5 percent, which is annual equivalent to 6.1 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.4 percent in IIIQ2018, which is annual equivalent at 5.7 percent, and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2018, GDP grew at 1.6 percent, which is annual equivalent to 6.6 percent, and increased 6.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.8 percent in IQ2019, which is annual equivalent to 7.4 percent, and increased 6.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2019, GDP grew at 1.0 percent, which is annual equivalent to 4.1 percent and increased 6.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.3 percent in IIIQ2019, which is annual equivalent to 5.3 percent, and increased 5.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2019, GDP grew at 1.6 percent, which is annual equivalent to 6.6 percent, and increased 5.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP contracted minus 9.3 percent in IQ2020, which is annual equivalent to minus 32.3 percent, and contracted minus 6.8 percent in IQ2020 relative to a year earlier, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. GDP grew at 10.1 percent in IIQ2020, which is equivalent to 46.9 percent in a year and grew 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2020, GDP grew 3.1 percent, which is annual equivalent at 13.0 percent, and grew 4.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 3.2 percent in IVQ2020, which is equivalent to 13.4 percent in a year, and grew 6.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2021, GDP grew 0.6 percent, which is annual equivalent at 2.4 percent, and grew 18.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Growth rates of GDP of China in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier have been declining from 2011 to 2020.
- Euro Area. GDP fell 0.2 percent in the euro area in IQ2012 and decreased 0.5 in IQ2012 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP contracted 0.3 percent IIQ2012 and fell 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.1 percent and declined 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.4 percent relative to the prior quarter and fell 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, the GDP of the euro area fell 0.4 percent and decreased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2013, euro area GDP increased 0.3 percent and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2013 and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The euro area’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 0.7 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The euro area’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2016 and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, euro area GDP increased 0.7 percent and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2017 and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.8 percent and grew 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area grew 0.9 percent in IVQ2017 and increased 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.1 percent and grew 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area grew 0.5 percent in IIQ2018 and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2018 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2019 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2019 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2020, the GDP of the euro area decreased 3.8 percent and decreased 3.3 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area contracted 11.5 percent in IIQ2020 and contracted 14.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2020, the GDP of the euro area increased 12.6 percent and contracted 4.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area contracted 0.6 percent in IVQ2020 and contracted 4.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2021, the GDP of the euro area contracted 0.3 percent and contracted 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier.
- Germany. The GDP of Germany increased 0.2 percent in IQ2012 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier but 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier when adjusted for calendar effects (CA). In IIIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IVQ2012 and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, Germany’s GDP decreased 0.5 percent and fell 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 1.1 percent and grew 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2013 and grew 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 1.0 percent in IQ2014 and grew 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Germany’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany decreased 0.5 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2015 and grew 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and grew 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2015 and grew 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, the GDP of Germany increased 0.9 percent and grew 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 3.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of Germany increased 0.2 percent and grew 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2016 and grew 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, the GDP of Germany increased 1.2 percent and grew 3.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2017 and grew 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier and 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier adjusting for calendar effects (CA). In IIIQ2017, the GDP of Germany increased 0.9 percent and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier and 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2017, 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier and 3.6 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany decreased 0.2 percent in IQ2018 and grew 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier and 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2018, 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier and 2.0 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany decreased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2018, increasing 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier and 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2018, increasing 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier and 0.3 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany increased 0.6 percent in IQ2019, increasing 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier and increasing 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP contracted 0.5 percent in IIQ2019, decreased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier and increased 0.1 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2019, increasing 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier and increasing 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2019, increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP decreased 2.0 percent in IQ2020, decreased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier and decreased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany decreased 9.7 percent in IIQ2020, decreased 11.3 percent relative to a year earlier and decreased 11.3 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 8.7 percent in IIIQ2020, decreased 3.7 percent relative to a year earlier and decreased 3.8 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2020, decreased 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier and decreased 3.3 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP decreased 1.8 percent in IQ2021, decreased 3.4 percent relative to a year earlier and decreased 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier (CA).
- United States. Growth of US GDP in IQ2012 was 0.8 percent, at SAAR of 3.2 percent and higher by 2.7 percent relative to IQ2011. US GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2012, 1.7 percent at SAAR and 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, US GDP grew 0.1 percent, 0.5 percent at SAAR and 2.5 percent relative to IIIQ2011. In IVQ2012, US GDP grew 0.1 percent, 0.5 percent at SAAR and 1.5 percent relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, US GDP grew at 3.6 percent SAAR, 0.9 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.6 percent relative to the same quarter in 2012. In IIQ2013, US GDP grew at 0.5 percent in SAAR, 0.1 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.3 percent relative to IIQ2012. US GDP grew at 3.2 percent in SAAR in IIIQ2013, 0.8 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.9 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/06/us-gdp-growing-continuing-recovery-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/05/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-64-percent-in_29.html) In IVQ2013, US GDP grew 0.8 percent at 3.2 percent SAAR and 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, US GDP decreased 0.3 percent, increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier and fell 1.1 percent at SAAR. In IIQ2014, US GDP increased 1.4 percent at 5.5 percent SAAR and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP increased 1.2 percent in IIIQ2014 at 5.0 percent SAAR and increased 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, US GDP increased 0.6 percent at SAAR of 2.3 percent and increased 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.9 percent in IQ2015 at SAAR of 3.8 percent and grew 4.1 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.7 percent in IIQ2015, increasing 0.7 percent in the quarter and 3.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 at SAAR of 1.5 percent and grew 2.6 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 0.6 percent in IVQ2015, increasing 0.2 percent in the quarter and 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, US GDP grew 0.6 percent at SAAR of 2.3 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 1.3 percent in IIQ2016, increasing 0.3 percent in the quarter and 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, US GDP grew 0.5 percent at SAAR of 2.2 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.5 percent in IVQ2016, increasing 0.6 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, US GDP grew 0.6 percent at SAAR of 2.3 percent and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 1.7 percent in IIQ2017, increasing 0.4 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, US GDP grew 0.7 percent at SAAR of 2.9 percent and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 3.9 percent in IVQ2017, increasing 1.0 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, US GDP grew at SAAR of 3.8 percent, increasing 0.9 percent in the quarter, and increasing 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.7 percent in IIQ2018, increasing 0.7 percent in the quarter, and increasing 3.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.1 percent, increasing 0.5 percent in the quarter, and increasing 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 1.3 percent in IVQ2018, increasing 0.3 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.9 percent, increasing 0.7 percent in the quarter and increasing 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 1.5 percent in IIQ2019, increasing 0.4 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.6 percent, increasing 0.6 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.4 percent in IVQ2019, increasing 0.6 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2020, US GDP contracted at SAAR of minus 5.0 percent, decreasing 1.3 percent in the quarter, and increasing 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2020, US GDP contracted at SAAR of minus 31.4 percent, decreasing 9.0 percent in the quarter and decreasing 9.0 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 33.4 percent in IIIQ2020, increasing 7.5 percent in the quarter, and decreasing 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2020, US GDP grew at SAAR of 4.1 percent, increasing 1.0 percent in the quarter and decreasing 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 6.4 percent in IQ2021, increasing 1.6 percent in the quarter and increasing 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier.
- United Kingdom. In IQ2012, UK GDP increased 0.7 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, GDP fell 0.1 percent relative to IQ2012 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, GDP increased 1.2 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier. In IVQ2012, GDP fell 0.2 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Fiscal consolidation in an environment of weakening economic growth is much more challenging. GDP increased 1.4 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 0.5 percent in IQ2013 relative to IVQ2012. In IIQ2013, GDP increased 0.8 percent and 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.9 percent in IIIQ2013 and 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IVQ2013 and 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, GDP increased 0.8 percent and 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2014 and 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2014 and 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, GDP increased 0.6 percent and 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2015 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2016 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2016 and grew 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IVQ2016 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2017 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, GDP increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2017 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2018 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, GDP increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2018 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, GDP increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2019 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, GDP increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2019 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2020, GDP decreased 2.8 percent and decreased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP decreased 19.5 percent in IIQ2020 and decreased 21.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2020, GDP increased 16.9 percent and decreased 8.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.3 percent in IVQ2020 and decreased 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2021, GDP contracted 1.6 percent and contracted 6.1 percent relative to a year earlier.
- Italy. The GDP of Italy grew 0.1 percent in IQ2021 and contracted 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP contracted 1.8 percent in IVQ2020 and contracted 6.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 15.9 percent in IIIQ2020 and contracted 5.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy contracted 12.9 percent in IIQ2020 and contracted 18.1 percent relative to a year earlier in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Italy’s GDP contracted 5.7 percent in IQ2020 and decreased 5.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy decreased 0.4 percent in IVQ2019 and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.1 percent in IIIQ2019 and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2019, Italy’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IQ2019 and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2018, the GDP of Italy increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2018 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2018, the GDP of Italy increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IQ2018 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, the GDP of Italy increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2017 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2017, the GDP of Italy increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, the GDP of Italy increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2016, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2015, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IVQ2014 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.1 percent in IQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IVQ2013 and fell 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2013 and fell 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.9 percent in IQ2013 and declined 2.9 percent relative to IQ2013. GDP had been growing during six consecutive quarters but at very low rates from IQ2010 to IIQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell in seven consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at increasingly higher rates of contraction from 0.5 percent in IIIQ2011 to 0.9 percent in IVQ2011, 1.2 percent in IQ2012, 0.7 percent in IIQ2012 and 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012. The pace of decline accelerated to minus 0.8 percent in IVQ2012 and minus 0.9 percent in IQ2013. GDP contracted cumulatively 5.4 percent in seven consecutive quarterly contractions from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at the annual equivalent rate of minus 3.1 percent. The year-on-year rate has fallen from 2.1 percent in IVQ2010 to minus 3.2 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.9 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.2 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.5 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.9 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.4 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.4 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.3 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IIIQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.3 percent in IVQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.8 percent in IIQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.7 percent in IIIQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.9 percent in IVQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.4 percent in IQ2018 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.0 percent in IIQ2018 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2018 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2018 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2019 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2019 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIIQ2019 relative to a year earlier and decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2019 relative to a year earlier. GDP contracted 5.8 percent in IQ2020 relative to a year earlier and contracted 18.1 percent in IIQ2020 relative to a year earlier in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. GDP contracted 5.2 percent in IIIQ2020 relative to a year earlier and contracted 6.5 percent in IVQ2020 relative to a year earlier. GDP contracted 0.8 percent in IQ2021 relative to a year earlier. Istat updated the national accounts of Italy, using 2015 base, with the release of Mar 3, 2021 (https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/254320). Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/), the GDP of Italy (using the base of 2015) in IQ2021 of €402,919.6 million (https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/254320) is lower by 11.0 percent relative to €452,898.0 million in IQ2008 (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/). Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/), the GDP of Italy increased from €391,924.2 million in IQ1998 to €452,898.0 million in IQ2008 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.5 percent. The fiscal adjustment of Italy is significantly more difficult with the economy not growing especially on the prospects of increasing government revenue. The strategy is for reforms to improve productivity, facilitating future fiscal consolidation.
- France. France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2012 and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IIQ2012 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2013 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2013 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2013 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2015, France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2015, the GDP of France increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France decreased 0.2 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, the GDP of France increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2017, the GDP of France increased 0.8 percent and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIIQ2017 and increased 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, the GDP of France increased 0.8 percent and increased 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IQ2018 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2018, the GDP of France increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2018 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2018, the GDP of France increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2019 and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2019, the GDP of France increased 0.6 percent and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2019 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2019, the GDP of France decreased 0.3 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 5.9 percent in IQ2020 and decreased 5.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2020, the GDP of France decreased 13.2 percent and decreased 18.4 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 18.5 percent in IIIQ2020 and decreased 3.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2020, the GDP of France contracted 1.5 percent and decreased 4.6 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IQ2021 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier.
Table V-3, Percentage Changes of GDP Quarter on Prior Quarter and on Same Quarter Year Earlier, ∆%
QOQ: quarter relative to prior quarter; SAAR: seasonally adjusted annual rate
AE: annual equivalent
Source: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.bls.gov/bls/other.htm https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/related-sites.html
The National Bureau of Statistics of China released a preliminary estimate of growth of GDP of 7.9 percent in IIQ2021 relative to IIQ2020, as shown in Table V-3C. GDP grew 1.3 percent in IIQ2021 at the annual equivalent rate of 5.3 percent.
Table V-3C, Flash Estimates of Percentage Changes of GDP Quarter on Prior Quarter and on Same Quarter Year Earlier, ∆%
| IIQ2021/IQ2021 | IIQ2021/IIQ2020 | |
| China | 1.3 (AE 5.3) | 7.9 |
QOQ: Quarter relative to prior quarter; SAAR: seasonally adjusted annual rate; AE: Annual Equivalent
Source: Eurostat: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat Country Statistical Agencies http://www.bls.gov/bls/other.htm https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/related-sites.html https://www.ibge.gov.br/estatisticas/economicas/contas-nacionais/9300-contas-nacionais-trimestrais.html?=&t=resultados
Table V-4 provides two types of data: growth of exports and imports in the latest available months and in the past 12 months; and contributions of net trade (exports less imports) to growth of real GDP.
- Japan. Japan provides the most worrisome data (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/global-decline-of-values-of-financial.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/07/valuation-of-risk-financial-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/fluctuating-financial-asset-valuations.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/dollar-revaluation-squeezing-corporate.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/patience-on-interest-rate-increases.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/monetary-policy-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/valuation-risks-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/interest-rate-risks-world-inflation.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/global-financial-risk-world-inflation.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations_8763.html http://cmpass ocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/paring-quantitative-easing-policy-and_4699.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/thirty-one-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/12/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_24.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/11/contraction-of-united-states-real_25.html and for GDP http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what_13.html). In Jun 2021, Japan’s exports increased 48.6 percent in 12 months while imports increased 32.7 percent. The second part of Table V-4 shows that net trade added 0.7 percent in IQ2012, deducting 1.9 percent in IIQ2012. Net trade deducted 1.9 percent in IIIQ2012. Net traded deducted 0.3 percent in IVQ2012. Net trade added 1.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2013 but deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIQ2013, deducting 1.3 percentage points in IIIQ2013 and 2.1 percentage points in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 0.9 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2014. Net trade added 4.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2014 and deducted 0.3 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 1.8 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2014. Net trade contributed 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2015 and deducted 0.8-percentage points in IIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.5 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015 and added 1.4 percentage points in IQ2016. Net trade contributed 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade added 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2016 and contributed 1.2 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade contributed 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017 and deducted 0.9 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade contributed 1.9 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017 and deducted 0.0 percentage-point in IVQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018 and contributed 0.0 percentage points in IIQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.9 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018 and deducted 1.6 percentage points in IVQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.9 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2019 with export contraction deducting 1.5 percent and import contraction contributing 2.4 percent. Net trade deducted 1.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2019. Net trade deducted 1.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade contributed 2.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 1.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2020 with export contraction deducting 3.3 percentage points and import contraction adding 2.1 percentage points. Net trade deducted 10.2 percentage points in IIQ2020 with export contraction deducting 10.7 percentage points and imports contributing 0.5 percentage points. Net trade contributed 11.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2020 with export growth contributing 4.7 percentage points and import contraction contribution 6.5 percentage points. Net trade contributed 4.2 percentage points to GDP in IVQ2020 with export growth contributing 7.3 percentage points and imports deducting 3.1 percentage points. Net trade deducted 0.9 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2021 with exports contributing 1.4 percent and imports deducting 2.4 percent. Private consumption assumed the role of driver of Japan’s economic growth but should moderate as in most mature economies.
- China. The exports of China increased 33.2 percent in Jun 2021 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 36.7 percent.
- Germany. Germany’s exports increased 0.3 percent in the month of May 2021 and increased 36.4 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2021. Germany’s imports increased 3.4 percent in the month of May 2021 and increased 32.6 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2021. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to growth of GDP in IQ2012, contributed 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2012, contributed 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2012, deducted 0.5 percentage points in IVQ2012, deducted 0.3 percentage points in IQ2013 and deducted 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded deducted 0.0 percentage points from Germany’s GDP growth in IIIQ2013 and added 0.9 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2014 and added 0.7 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points in IVQ2015 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade added 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2017. Net trade added 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018 and deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2019. Net traded added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 1.2 percentage points in IQ2020 and deducted 3.3 percentage points in IIQ2020. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points in IIIQ2020. Net trade contributed 0.9 percentage points in IVQ2020. Net trade contributed 0.9 percentage points in IQ2021.
- United Kingdom. Net trade contributed 0.7 percentage points in IIQ2013. In IIIQ2013, net trade deducted 1.7 percentage points from UK growth. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to UK value added in IVQ2013. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to UK value added in IQ2014 and 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2014 and added 0.0 percentage points in IVQ2014. Net traded deducted 0.4 percentage points from growth in IQ2015. Net trade added 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.1-percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 1.8 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade added 1.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2016. Net trade added 0.33 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017 and contributed 0.01 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.11 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.28 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade added 0.42 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.48 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.45 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.29 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2018. Net trade deducted 2.50 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2019. Net trade contributed 2.90 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2019. Net trade contributed 1.12 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade contributed 2.21 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 2.46 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2020. Net trade contributed 3.34 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2020. Net trade deducted 4.38 percentage points from GDP in IIIQ2020. Net trade deducted 1.44 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2020. Net trade contributed 2.31 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2021.
- France. France’s exports decreased 3.0 percent in May 2021 while imports decreased 1.6 percent. France’s exports increased 40.6 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2021 and imports increased 31.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Net traded added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IIIQ2012 and 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IQ2013 and added 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2013, deducting 1.7 percentage points in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IVQ2013 and deducted 0.1 percentage points in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IIQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to France’s GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.6 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015 and deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.3 percentage points to GDP in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP in IIIQ2016 and added 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP in IQ2017 and added 0.9 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade added 0.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade added 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to GDP in IVQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP in IQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ219. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points in IQ2020. Net trade deducted 1.8 percentage points in IIQ2020. Net trade contributed 0.9 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2020. Net trade contributed 0.7 percentage points in IVQ2020. Net trade deducted 0.4 percentage points in IQ2021.
- United States. US exports increased 0.6 percent in May 2021 and goods exports increased 19.9 percent in Jan-May 2021 relative to a year earlier. Imports increased 1.3 percent in May 2021 and goods imports increased 21.7 percent in Jan-May 2021 relative to a year earlier. Net trade added 0.27 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2012 and deducted 0.08 percentage points in IIIQ2012, adding 0.57 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade added 0.40 percentage points to US GDP growth in IQ2013 and deducted 0.33 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded subtracted 0.14 percentage points from US GDP growth in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 1.23 percentage points to US GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 1.11 percentage points from US GDP growth in IQ2014 and deducted 0.46 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade added 0.10 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2014. Net trade deducted 1.05 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 1.38 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.25 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.97 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.22 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.05 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.22 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade added 0.08 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade deducted 1.13 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2016. Net trade added 0.36 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.39 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2017. Net trade added 0.08 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.49 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade added 0.29 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018. Net trade added 0.25 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.83 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018, deducting 0.27 percentage points in IVQ2018. Net trade added 0.55 percentage points in IQ2019, deducting 0.79 percentage points in IIQ2019. Net trade added 0.04 percentage points in IIIQ2019. Net trade added 1.52 percentage points in IVQ2019, adding 1.13 percentage points in IQ2020. Net trade added 0.62 percentage points in IIQ2020, deducting 3.21 percentage points in IIIQ2020. Net trade deducted 1.53 percentage points in IVQ2020. Net trade deducted 1.2 percentage points in IQ2021.
Industrial production increased 0.4 percent in Jun 2021 and increased 0.7 percent in May 2021 after changing 0.0 percent in Apr 2021, with all data seasonally adjusted, as shown in Table I-1. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System conducted the annual revision of industrial production released on May 28, 2021 (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/revisions/Current/DefaultRev.htm):
“The Federal Reserve has revised its index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization. The most prominent features of the revision are an update of the base year to 2017 for the indexes, a conversion of the industry-group indexes to the 2017 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), the incorporation of comprehensive annual production data for 2017 through 2019, and the incorporation of new survey utilization rate data for 2019 and 2020.[1]
On net, the revisions to total IP for recent years are negative. Notably, the updated rates of change are 1 to 1-1/2 percentage points lower per year from 2017 through 2019.[2] The cumulative effect of these revisions leaves the level of total IP in April 2021 about 3-1/2 percent below its late-2007 peak before the Great Recession; previously, total IP in April 2021 was slightly above its peak before the Great Recession. The incorporation of detailed data for manufacturing from the U.S. Census Bureau's 2017 Economic Census (EC) and the 2018 and 2019 Annual Surveys of Manufactures (ASMs) accounts for the majority of the differences between the current and the previously published estimates. The revisions to the rates of change for 2020 are small, and the magnitude of the sharp drop (17 percent) in total IP at the onset of the pandemic in early 2020 is very similar to the magnitude reported earlier.
Annual capacity growth is revised down about 1 percentage point, on average, from 2017 to 2019 and is little changed in 2020. After these revisions, capacity for total industry is estimated to have grown about 3 percent less between 2016 and the end of 2020 than previously estimated.
In the fourth quarter of 2020, capacity utilization for total industry stood at 73.4 percent, about 1/2 percentage point below its previous estimate and about 6-1/4 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2020) average. The utilization rate for 2019 is also about 1/2 percentage point lower than the previous estimate, but revisions to utilization rates for 2017 and 2018 are very small.”
The report of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System states (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/default.htm):
“Industrial production increased 0.4 percent in June after moving up 0.7 percent in May. In June, manufacturing output edged down 0.1 percent, as an ongoing shortage of semiconductors contributed to a decrease of 6.6 percent in the production of motor vehicles and parts. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, factory output increased 0.4 percent. The output of utilities advanced 2.7 percent, reflecting heightened demand for air conditioning, as much of the country experienced a heat wave in June. The index for mining increased 1.4 percent.
For the second quarter as a whole, total industrial production rose at an annual rate of 5.5 percent. Manufacturing output increased at an annual rate of 3.7 percent despite a drop of 22.5 percent for motor vehicles and parts.
At 100.1 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in June was 9.8 percent above its year-earlier level but 1.2 percent below its pre-pandemic (February 2020) level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector rose 0.3 percentage point in June to 75.4 percent, a rate that is 4.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2020) average.”
In the six months ending in Jun 2021, United States national industrial production accumulated change of 1.7 percent at the annual equivalent rate of 3.5 percent, which is lower than growth of 9.8 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2021. Excluding decline of 3.1 percent in Feb 2021, growth in the remaining five months from Dec 2020 to May 2021 accumulated to 5.0 percent or 12.4 percent annual equivalent. Industrial production increased 2.7 percent in one of the past six months, 1.1 percent in one month, 0.7 percent in one month, 0.4 percent in one month, 0.0 percent in one month and minus 3.1 percent in one month. Industrial production increased at annual equivalent 4.5 percent in the most recent quarter from Apr 2021 to Jun 2021 and increased at 2.5 percent annual equivalent in the prior quarter from Jan 2021 to Mar 2021. Business equipment accumulated change of 1.7 percent in the six months from Jan 2020 to Jun 2021, at the annual equivalent rate of 3.4 percent, which is lower than growth of 15.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2021. The Fed analyzes capacity utilization of total industry in its report (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm): “Capacity utilization for the industrial sector rose 0.3 percentage point in June to 75.4 percent, a rate that is 4.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2020) average.” United States industry apparently decelerated to a lower growth rate followed by possible acceleration, weakening growth in past months and deep contraction in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. There is recent recovery. Manufacturing decreased 22.4 percent from the peak in Jun 2007 to the trough in Apr 2009 and increased 13.5 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Dec 2019. Manufacturing increased 10.9 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Dec 2020. Manufacturing in Dec 2020 is lower by 13.9 percent relative to the peak in Jun 2007. Manufacturing increased 16.3 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Jun 2021. Manufacturing in Jun 2021 is 9.7 percent below the peak in Jun 2007. US economic growth has been at only 2.0 percent on average in the cyclical expansion in the 47 quarters from IIIQ2009 to IQ2021 and in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021). Boskin (2010Sep) measures that the US economy grew at 6.2 percent in the first four quarters and 4.5 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the second quarter of 1975; and at 7.7 percent in the first four quarters and 5.8 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the first quarter of 1983 (Professor Michael J. Boskin, Summer of Discontent, Wall Street Journal, Sep 2, 201 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882304575465462926649950.html). There are new calculations using the revision of US GDP and personal income data since 1929 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) and the third estimate of GDP for IQ2021 (https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2021-06/gdp1q21_3rd_1.pdf). The average of 7.7 percent in the first four quarters of major cyclical expansions is in contrast with the rate of growth in the first four quarters of the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010 of only 2.8 percent obtained by dividing GDP of $15,557.3 billion in IIQ2010 by GDP of $15,134.1 billion in IIQ2009 {[($15,557.3/$15,134.1) -1]100 = 2.8%], or accumulating the quarter on quarter growth rates (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/06/us-gdp-growing-continuing-recovery-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/05/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-64-percent-in_29.html). The expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1986 was at the average annual growth rate of 5.7 percent, 5.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1986, 5.1 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1986, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1989, 4.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1989, 4.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1989, 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1989. 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1990, 4.4 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1990, 4.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1990, 4.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1990, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1992, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1994, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1994, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1994 and at 7.9 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/06/us-gdp-growing-continuing-recovery-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/05/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-64-percent-in_29.html). The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dates a contraction of the US from IQ1990 (Jul) to IQ1991 (Mar) (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html). The expansion lasted until another contraction beginning in IQ2001 (Mar). US GDP contracted 1.3 percent from the pre-recession peak of $8983.9 billion of chained 2009 dollars in IIIQ1990 to the trough of $8865.6 billion in IQ1991 (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IQ2021 and in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021) would have accumulated to 47.9 percent. GDP in IQ2021 would be $23,318.7 billion (in constant dollars of 2012) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $4232.3 billion than actual $19,086.4 billion. There are more than four trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 27.4 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 15.8 percent of the effective labor force with the largest part originating in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/07/increase-in-jun-2021-of-nonfarm-payroll.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/06/increase-in-may-2021-of-nonfarm-payroll.html). Unemployment is decreasing while employment is increasing in initial adjustment of the lockdown of economic activity in the global recession resulting from the COVID-19 event (https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-june-2021.htm). US GDP in IQ2021 is 18.2 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $15,762.0 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $19,086.4 billion in IQ2021 or 21.1 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.5 percent. Professor John H. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. Cochrane (2016May02) measures GDP growth in the US at average 3.5 percent per year from 1950 to 2000 and only at 1.76 percent per year from 2000 to 2015 with only at 2.0 percent annual equivalent in the current expansion. Cochrane (2016May02) proposes drastic changes in regulation and legal obstacles to private economic activity. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 3.0 percent per year from Jun 1919 to Jun 2021. Growth at 3.0 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 106.8161 in Dec 2007 to 159.1986 in Jun 2021. The actual index NSA in Jun 2021 is 100.1180 which is 37.1 percent below trend. The underperformance of manufacturing in Mar-Aug 2020 originates partly in the earlier global recession augmented by the current global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19. Manufacturing grew at the average annual rate of 3.3 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2006. Growth at 3.3 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 106.8161 in Dec 2007 to 165.5736 in Jun 2021. The actual index NSA in Jun 2021 is 100.1180, which is 39.5 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 1.8 percent between Dec 1986 and Jun 2021. Using trend growth of 1.8 percent per year, the index would increase to 135.9038 in Jun 2021. The output of manufacturing at 100.1180 in Jun 2021 is 26.3 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Using the NAICS (North American Industry Classification System), manufacturing output fell from the high of 108.5167 in Jun 2007 to the low of 84.7321 in May 2009 or 21.9 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased from 84.7321 in Apr 2009 to 100.6102 in Jun 2021 or 18.7 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased at the annual equivalent rate of 3.5 percent from Dec 1986 to Dec 2006. Growth at 3.5 percent would increase the NAICS manufacturing output index from 104.6868 in Dec 2007 to 166.5661 in Jun 2021. The NAICS index at 100.6102 in Jun 2021 is 39.6 below trend. The NAICS manufacturing output index grew at 1.7 percent annual equivalent from Dec 1999 to Dec 2006. Growth at 1.7 percent would raise the NAICS manufacturing output index from 104.6868 in Dec 2007 to 131.4392 in Jun 2021. The NAICS index at 100.6102 in Jun 2021 is 23.5 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Table I-13 provides national income by industry without capital consumption adjustment (WCCA). “Private industries” or economic activities have share of 88.0 percent in IQ2021. Most of US national income is in the form of services. In Jun 2021, there were 146.517 million nonfarm jobs NSA in the US, according to estimates of the establishment survey of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm Table B-1). Total private jobs of 124.800 million NSA in Jun 2021 accounted for 85.2 percent of total nonfarm jobs of 146.517 million, of which 12.389 million, or 9.9 percent of total private jobs and 8.5 percent of total nonfarm jobs, were in manufacturing. Private service-providing jobs were 104.186 million NSA in Jun 2021, or 71.1 percent of total nonfarm jobs and 83.5 percent of total private-sector jobs. Manufacturing has share of 9.4 percent in US national income in IQ2021 and durable goods 5.7 percent, as shown in Table I-13. Most income in the US originates in services. Subsidies and similar measures designed to increase manufacturing jobs will not increase economic growth and employment and may actually reduce growth by diverting resources away from currently employment-creating activities because of the drain of taxation.
Table V-4, Growth of Trade and Contributions of Net Trade to GDP Growth, ∆% and % Points
| Exports | Exports 12 M ∆% | Imports | Imports 12 M ∆% | |
| USA | 0.6 May SA | 19.9 Jan-May NSA | 1.3 May SA | 21.7 Jan-May NSA |
| Japan | Jun 2021 48.6 May 2021 49.6 Apr 2021 38.0 Mar 2021 16.1 Feb 2021 -4.5 Jan 2021 6.4 Dec 2020 2.0 Nov 2020 -4.2 Oct 2020 -0.2 Sep 2020 -4.9 Aug 2020 -14.8 Jul 2020 -19.2 Jun 2020 -26.2 May 2020 -28.3 Apr 2020 -21.9 Mar 2020 -11.7 Feb 2020 -1.0 Jan 2020 -2.6 Dec 2019 -6.3 Nov 2019 -7.9 Oct 2019 -9.2 Sep 2019 -5.2 Aug 2019 -8.2 Jul 2019 -1.6 Jun 2019 -6.7 May 2019 -7.8 Apr 2019 -2.4 Mar 2019 -2.4 Feb 2019 -1.2 Jan 2019 -8.4 Dec 2018 -3.8 Nov 2018 0.1 Oct 2018 8.2 Sep 2018 -1.2 Aug 2018 6.6 Jul 2018 3.9 Jun 2018 6.7 May 2018 8.1 Apr 2018 7.8 Mar 2018 2.1 Feb 2018 1.8 Jan 2018 12.2 Dec 2017 9.3 Nov 2017 16.2 Oct 2017 14.0 Sep 2017 14.1 Aug 2017 18.1 Jul 2017 13.4 Jun 2017 9.7 May 2017 14.9 Apr 2017 7.5 Mar 2017 12.0 Feb 2017 11.3 Jan 2017 1.3 Dec 2016 5.4 Nov 2016 -0.4 Oct 2016 -10.3 Sep 2016 -6.9 Aug 2016 9.6 Jul 2016 -14.0 Jun 2016 -7.8 May 2016 -11.3 Apr 2016 -10.1 Mar 2016 -6.8 Feb 2016 -4.0 Jan 2016 -12.9 Dec 2015 -8.0 Nov 2015 -3.3 Oct 2015 -2.1 Sep 2015 0.6 Aug 3.1 Jul 2015 7.6 Jun 2015 9.5 May 2015 2.4 Apr 8.0 Mar 8.5 Feb 2.4 Jan 17.0 Dec 12.9 Nov 4.9 Oct 9.6 Sep 6.9 Aug -1.3 Jul 3.9 Jun -2.0 May 2014 -2.7 Apr 2014 5.1 Mar 2014 1.8 Feb 2014 9.5 Jan 2014 9.5 Dec 2013 15.3 Nov 2013 18.4 Oct 2013 18.6 Sep 2013 11.5 Aug 2013 14.7 Jul 2013 12.2 Jun 2013 7.4 May 2013 10.1 Apr 2013 3.8 Mar 2013 1.1 Feb 2013 -2.9 Jan 2013 6.4 Dec -5.8 Nov -4.1 Oct -6.5 Sep -10.3 Aug -5.8 Jul -8.1 | Jun 2021 32.7 May 2021 27.9 Apr 2021 12.8 Mar 2021 5.8 Feb 2021 11.8 Jan 2021 -9.5 Dec 2020 -11.6 Nov 2020 -11.1 Oct 2020 -13.3 Sep 2020 -17.2 Aug 2020 -20.8 Jul 2020 -22.3 Jun 2020 -14.4 May 2020 -26.2 Apr 2020 -7.2 Mar 2020 -5.0 Feb 2020 -14.0 Jan 2020 -3.6 Dec 2019 -4.9 Nov 2019 -15.7 Oct 2019 -14.8 Sep 2019 -1.5 Aug 2019 -12.0 Jul 2019 -1.2 Jun 2019 -5.2 May 2019 -1.5 Apr 2019 6.4 Mar 2019 1.1 Feb 2019 -6.7 Jan 2019 -0.6 Dec 2018 1.9 Nov 2018 12.5 Oct 2018 19.9 Sep 2018 7.0 Aug 2018 15.4 Jul 2018 14.6 Jun 2018 2.5 May 2018 14.0 Apr 2018 5.9 Mar 2018 -0.6 Feb 2018 16.6 Jan 2018 7.9 Dec 2017 14.9 Nov 2017 17.2 Oct 2017 18.9 Sep 2017 12.0 Aug 2017 15.2 Jul 2017 16.3 Jun 2017 15.5 May 2017 17.8 Apr 2017 15.1 Mar 2017 15.8 Feb 2017 1.2 Jan 2017 8.5 Dec 2016 -2.6 Nov 2016 -8.8 Oct 2016 -16.5 Sep 2016 -16.3 Aug 2016 -17.3 Jul 2016 -24.7 Jun 2016 -18.8 May 2016 -13.8 Apr 2016 -23.3 Mar 2016 -14.9 Feb 2016 -14.2 Jan 2016 -18.0 Dec 2015 -18.0 Nov 2015 -10.2 Oct 2015 -13.4 Sep 2015 -11.1 Aug -3.1 Jul 2015 -3.2 Jun 2015 -2.9 May 2015 -8.7 Apr -4.2 Mar -14.5 Feb -3.6 Jan -9.0 Dec 1.9 Nov -1.7 Oct 2.7 Sep 6.2 Aug -1.5 Jul 2.3 Jun 8.4 May 2014 -3.6 Apr 2013 3.4 Mar 2014 18.1 Feb 2014 9.0 Jan 2014 25.0 Dec 2013 24.7 Nov 2013 21.1 Oct 2013 26.1 Sep 2013 16.5 Aug 2013 16.0 Jul 2013 19.6 Jun 2013 11.8 May 2013 10.0 Apr 2013 9.4 Mar 2013 5.5 Feb 2013 7.3 Jan 2013 7.3 Dec 1.9 Nov 0.8 Oct -1.6 Sep 4.1 Aug -5.4 Jul 2.1 | ||
| China | Jan-Dec 3.6 Jan-Dec 0.5 Jan-Dec 9.9 Jan-Dec 2017 7.9 Jan-Dec 2016 -7.7 Jan-Dec 2015 -2.8 | 2021 Jun 33.2 May 27.9 Apr 32.3 Mar 30.6 Jan-Feb 60.6 2020 Dec 18.1 Nov 21.1 Oct 11.4 Sep 9.9 Aug 9.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 0.5 May -3.3 Apr 8.2 Mar -2.9 Jan-Feb -17.2 2019 Dec 7.6 Nov -1.1 Oct -0.9 Sep -3.2 Aug -1.0 Jul 3.3 Jun -1.3 May 1.1 Apr -2.7 Mar 14.2 Feb -20.7 Jan 9.3 2018 Dec -4.4 Nov 5.4 Oct 15.6 Sep 14.5 Aug 9.8 Jul 12.2 Jun 11.3 May 12.6 Apr 12.9 Mar -2.7 Feb 44.5 Jan 11.1 2017 Dec 10.9 Nov 12.3 Oct 6.9 Sep 8.1 Aug 5.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 11.3 May 8.7 Apr 8.0 Mar 16.4 Feb -1.3 Jan 7.9 2016 Dec 3.1 Nov 0.1 Oct -7.3 Sep -10.0 Aug -2.8 Jul -4.4 Jun -4.8 May -4.1 Apr -1.8 Mar 11.5 Feb -25.4 Jan -11.2 2015 -1.4 Dec -6.8 Nov -6.9 Oct -3.7 Sep -5.5 Aug -8.3 Jul 2.8 Jun -2.5 May -6.4 Apr -15.0 Mar 48.3 Feb -3.3 Jan 2014 9.7 Dec 4.7 Nov 11.6 Oct 15.3 Sep 9.4 Aug 14.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 7.0 May 0.9 Apr -6.6 Mar -18.1 Feb 10.6 Jan 2013 4.3 Dec 12.7 Nov 5.6 Oct -0.3 Sep 7.2 Aug 5.1 Jul -3.1 Jun 1.0 May 14.7 Apr 10.0 Mar 21.8 Feb 25.0 Jan | Jan-Dec -1.1 Jan-Dec -2.8 Jan-Dec 15.8 Jan-Dec 2017 15.9 Jan-Dec 2016 -5.5 Jan-Dec 2015 -14.1 | 2021 Jun 36.7 May 51.1 Apr 43.1 Mar 38.1 Jan-Feb 22.2 2020 Dec 6.5 Nov 4.5 Oct 4.7 Sep 13.2 Aug -2.1 Jul 1.4 Jun 2.7 May -16.7 Apr -10.2 Mar -1.1 Jan-Feb -4.0 2019 Dec 16.3 Nov 0.3 Oct -6.4 Sep -8.5 Aug -5.6 Jul -5.3 Jun -7.3 May -8.5 Apr 4.0 Mar -7.6 Feb -5.2 Jan -1.5 2018 Dec -7.6 Nov 3.0 Oct 21.4 Sep 14.3 Aug 20.0 Jul 27.3 Jun 14.1 May 26.0 Apr 21.5 Mar 14.4 Feb 6.3 Jan 36.9 2017 Dec 4.5 Nov 17.7 Oct 17.2 Sep 18.7 Aug 13.3 Jul 11.0 Jun 17.2 May 14.8 Apr 11.9 Mar 20.3 Feb 38.1 Jan 16.7 2016 Dec -7.7 Nov 6.7 Oct -1.4 Sep -1.9 Aug 1.5 Jul -12.5 Jun -2.8 May -0.4 Apr -10.6 Mar -7.6 Feb -13.8 Jan -18.8 2015 -7.6 Dec -8.7 Nov -18.8 Oct -20.4 Sep -13.8 Aug -8.1 Jul -6.1 Jun -17.6 May -12.7 Mar -20.5 Feb -19.9 Jan 2014 -2.4 Dec -6.7 Nov 4.6 Oct 7.0 Sep -2.4 Aug -1.6 Jul 5.5 Jun -1.6 May -0.8 Apr -11.3 Mar 10.1 Feb 10.0 Jan 2013 8.3 Dec 5.3 Nov 7.6 Oct 7.4 Sep 7.0 Aug 10.9 Jul -0.7 Jun -0.3 May 16.8 Apr 14.1 Mar -15.2 Feb 28.8 Jan |
| Euro Area | 31.9 12-M May 2021 | 13.3 Jan-May 2021 | 35.2 12-M May 2021 | 12.7 Jan-May 2021 |
| Germany | 0.3 May CSA | 36.4 May | 3.4 May CSA | 32.6 May |
| France May | -3.0 | 40.6 | -1.6 | 31.6 |
| Italy May | -2.0 | 41.9 | -0.3 | 51.2 |
| UK | 4.4 May | -14.1 | -0.6 May | -9.2 |
| Net Trade % Points GDP Growth | Points | |||
| USA | IQ2021 -1.20 IVQ2020 -1.53 IIIQ2020 -3.21 IIQ2020 0.62 IQ2020 1.13 IVQ2019 1.52 IIIQ2019 0.04 IIQ2019 -0.79 IQ2019 0.55 IVQ 2018 -0.27 IIIQ2018 -1.83 IIQ2018 0.25 IQ2018 0.29 IVQ2017 -0.49 IIIQ2017 0.08 IIQ2017 -0.39 IQ2017 0.36 IVQ2016 -1.13 IIIQ2016 0.08 IIQ2016 0.22 IQ2016 -0.05 IVQ2015 -0.22 IIIQ2015 -0.97 IIQ2015 -0.25 IQ2015 -1.38 IVQ2014 -1.05 IIIQ2014 0.10 IIQ2014 -0.46 IQ2014 -1.11 IVQ2013 1.23 IIIQ2013 -0.14 IIQ2013 -0.33 IQ2013 0.40 IVQ2012 +0.57 IIIQ2012 -0.08 IIQ2012 0.27 IQ2012 0.00 | |||
| Japan | 0.7 IQ2012 -1.9 IIQ2012 -1.9 IIIQ2012 -0.3 IVQ2012 1.5 IQ2013 -0.2 IIQ2013 -1.3 IIIQ2013 -2.1 IVQ2013 -0.9 IQ2014 4.2 IIQ2014 -0.3 IIIQ2014 1.8 IVQ2014 0.4 IQ2015 -0.8 IIQ2015 -0.5 IIIQ2015 0.0 IVQ2015 1.4 IQ2016 0.3 IIQ2016 1.1 IIIQ2016 1.2 IVQ2016 0.6 IQ2017 -0.9 IIQ2017 1.9 IIIQ2017 0.0 IVQ2017 0.3 IQ2018 0.0 IIQ2018 -0.9 IIIQ2018 -1.6 IVQ2018 0.9 IQ2019 -1.2 IIQ2019 -1.3 IIIQ2019 2.3 IVQ2019 -1.2 IQ2020 -10.2 IIQ2020 11.2 IIIQ2020 4.2 IVQQ2020 -0.9 IQ2021 | |||
| Germany | IQ2012 0.8 IIQ2012 0.3 IIIQ2012 0.4 IVQ2012 -0.5 IQ2013 -0.3 IIQ2013 -0.3 IIIQ2013 0.0 IVQ2013 0.9 IQ2014 -0.1 IIQ2014 -0.3 IIIQ2014 0.7 IVQ2014 0.1 IQ2015 -0.4 IIQ2015 0.6 IIIQ2015 -0.4 IVQ2015 -0.6 IQ2016 -0.4 IIQ2016 0.7 IIIQ2016 -0.2 IVQ2016 -0.7 IQ2017 0.7 IIQ2017 -0.2 IIIQ2017 0.5 IVQ2017 0.1 IQ2018 0.1 IIQ2018 -0.2 IIIQ2018 -1.0 IVQ2018 -0.2 IQ2019 0.3 IIQ2019 -0.6 IIIQ2019 0.6 IVQ2019 -0.3 IQ2020 -1.2 IIQ2020 -3.3 IIIQ2020 -0.1 IVQ2020 0.9 IQ2021 0.9 | |||
| France | 0.1 IIIQ2012 0.1 IVQ2012 -0.1 IQ2013 0.3 IIQ2013 -1.7 IIIQ2013 0.1 IVQ2013 -0.1 IQ2014 -0.2 IIQ2014 -0.2 IIIQ2014 0.2 IVQ2014 -0.2 IQ2015 0.4 IIQ2015 -0.6 IIIQ2015 -0.7 IVQ2015 -0.1 IQ2016 0.3 IIQ2016 -0.6 IIIQ2016 0.1 IVQ2016 -0.6 IQ2017 0.9 IIQ2017 -0.3 IIIQ2017 0.6 IVQ2017 0.0 IQ2018 0.0 IIQ2018 0.3 IIIQ2018 0.2 IVQ2018 -0.3 IQ2019 -0.1 IIQ2019 -0.3 IIIQ2019 0.0 IVQ2019 -0.3 IQ2020 -1.8 IIQ2020 0.9 IIIQ2020 0.7 IVQ2020 -0.4 IQ2021 | |||
| UK | 0.7 IIQ2013 -1.7 IIIQ2013 0.1 IVQ2013 0.8 IQ2014 0.3 IIQ2014 -0.7 IIIQ2014 0.0 IVQ2014 -0.4 IQ2015 1.1 IIQ2015 -0.4 IIIQ2015 -0.2 IVQ2015 -0.1 IQ2016 0.1 IIQ2016 -1.8 IIIQ2016 1.7 IVQ2016 0.33 IQ2017 0.01 IIQ2017 | |||
| 0.11 | ||||
| IIIQ2017 -0.28 IVQ2017 0.42 IQ2018 -0.48 IIQ2018 0.45 IIIQ2018 -1.29 IVQ2018 -2.50 IQ2019 2.90 IIQ2019 1.12 IIIQ2019 2.21 IVQ2019 -2.46 IQ2020 3.34 IIQ2020 -4.38 IIIQ2020 -1.44 IVQ2020 2.31 IQ2021 |
Sources: Country Statistical Agencies
https://www.bls.gov/bls/other.htm https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/related-sites.html
Table VA-1 provides the value of total sales of US business (manufacturers, retailers and merchant wholesalers) and monthly and 12-month percentage changes. Sales of manufacturers increased 0.7 percent in May and increased 0.2 percent in Apr, increasing 26.2 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2021 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021). Sales of retailers decreased 2.4 percent in May and increased 0.4 percent in Apr, increasing 23.1 percent in 12 months. Sales of merchant wholesalers increased 0.8 percent in May, increasing 1.1 percent in Apr and increasing 37.7 percent in 12 months. Total business sales decreased 0.3 percent in May and increased 0.6 percent in Apr, increasing 28.9 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2021.
Table VA-1, US, Percentage Changes for Sales of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers
| May 21/Apr 21 | May 2021 | Apr 21/ Mar 21 ∆% SA | May 21/May 20 | |
| Total Business | -0.3 | 1,642,265 | 0.6 | 28.9 |
| Manufacturers | 0.7 | 495,162 | 0.2 | 26.2 |
| Retailers | -2.4 | 568,982 | 0.4 | 23.1 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 0.8 | 578,121 | 1.1 | 37.7 |
Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/mtis/index.html
IMPORTANT NOTE: Charts VA-1 through VA-4A cannot be updated because of the discontinuance of support of the Adobe Flash Player (https://www.adobe.com/products/flashplayer/end-of-life.html).
Chart VA-1 of the US Census Bureau provides total US sales of manufacturing, retailers and wholesalers seasonally adjusted (SA) in millions of dollars. The series with adjustment evens fluctuations following seasonal patterns. There is sharp recovery from the global recession in a robust trend, which is mixture of price and quantity effects because data are not adjusted for price changes. There is stability in the final segment with subdued prices with data not adjusted for price changes. There is recovery in the recent segment with occasional vacillation. The data point in Apr 2020 shows sharp contraction followed by increase in May-Oct 2020 in the globa recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.
Chart VA-1, US, Total Business Sales of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, SA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 1992-Oct 2020
Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/mtis/index.html
Chart VA-1A shows of the US Census Bureau provides total US sales of manufacturing, retailers and wholesalers seasonally adjusted (SA) in millions of dollars from Jan 2019 to Nov 2020, showing the deep contraction in Mar-Apr 2020 followed by increase in May-Oct in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.
Chart VA-1A, US, Total Business Sales of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, SA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 2019-Oct 2020
Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/mtis/index.html
Chart VA-2 of the US Census Bureau provides total US sales of manufacturing, retailers and wholesalers not seasonally adjusted (NSA) in millions of dollars from Jan 1992 to Oct 2020. The series without seasonal adjustment shows sharp jagged behavior because of monthly fluctuations following seasonal patterns. There is sharp recovery from the global recession in a robust trend, which is mixture of price and quantity effects because data are not adjusted for price changes. There is stability in the final segment with monthly marginal weakness in data without adjustment for price changes with following recovery. There is sharp contraction in Mar-Apr 2020 followed by increase in May-Nov 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.
Chart VA-2, US, Total Business Sales of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, NSA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 1992-Oct 2020
Source: US Census Bureau
https://www.census.gov/mtis/index.html
Chart VA-2A of the US Census Bureau provides total US sales of manufacturing, retailers and wholesalers not seasonally adjusted (NSA) in millions of dollars from Jan 2019 to Oct 2020. There is sharp contraction in the data point in Apr 2020 followed by increase in May-Oct in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.
Chart VA-2A, US, Total Business Sales of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, NSA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 2019-Oct 2020
Source: US Census Bureau
https://www.census.gov/mtis/index.html
Businesses added cautiously to inventories to replenish stocks. Retailers’ inventories decreased 0.8 percent in May 2021 and decreased 1.7 percent in
Apr with increase of 0.4 percent in 12 months, as shown in Table VA-2. Total business increased inventories 0.5 percent in May after increasing 0.1 percent in Apr and increasing 4.6 percent in 12 months. Inventories sales/ratios of total business stabilized at a level close to 1.30 under careful management to avoid costs and risks, moving to 1.26 in May 2021. Inventory/sales ratios of manufacturers and retailers are higher than for merchant wholesalers. There is stability in inventory/sales ratios in individual months and relative to a year earlier with stability at the margin.
Table VA-2, US, Percentage Changes for Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers and Inventory/Sales Ratios
| Inventory Change | May 21 | May 21/Apr 21 ∆% SA | Apr 21/Mar 2021 SA | May 21/May 20 ∆% NSA |
| Total Business | 2,032,828 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 4.6 |
| Manufacturers | 737,340 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 5.0 |
| Retailers | 591,380 | -0.8 | -1.7 | 0.4 |
| Merchant | 704,108 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 8.0 |
| Inventory/ | May 21 | May 2021 SA | Apr 2021 SA | May 2020 SA |
| Total Business | 2,032,828 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 1.55 |
| Manufacturers | 737,340 | 1.49 | 1.49 | 1.79 |
| Retailers | 591,380 | 1.09 | 1.07 | 1.34 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 704,108 | 1.23 | 1.22 | 1.56 |
US Census Bureau
https://www.census.gov/mtis/index.html
Inventories follow business cycles. When recession hits sales inventories pile up, declining with expansion of the economy. In a fascinating classic opus, Lloyd Meltzer (1941, 129) concludes:
“The dynamic sequences (i) through (6) were intended to show what types of behavior are possible for a system containing a sales output lag. The following conclusions seem to be the most important:
(i) An economy in which business men attempt to recoup inventory losses will always undergo cyclical fluctuations when equilibrium is disturbed, provided the economy is stable.
This is the pure inventory cycle.
(2) The assumption of stability imposes severe limitations upon the possible size of the marginal propensity to consume, particularly if the coefficient of expectation is positive.
(3) The inventory accelerator is a more powerful de-stabilizer than the ordinary acceleration principle. The difference in stability conditions is due to the fact that the former allows for replacement demand whereas the usual analytical formulation of the latter does not. Thus, for inventories, replacement demand acts as a de-stabilizer. Whether it does so for all types of capital goods is a moot question, but I believe cases may occur in which it does not.
(4) Investment for inventory purposes cannot alter the equilibrium of income, which depends only upon the propensity to consume and the amount of non-induced investment.
(5) The apparent instability of a system containing both an accelerator and a coefficient of expectation makes further investigation of possible stabilizers highly desirable.”
Chart VA-5 shows the increase in the inventory/sales ratios during the recession of 2007-2009. The inventory/sales ratio fell during the expansions. The inventory/sales ratio declined to a trough in 2011, climbed and then stabilized at current levels in 2012, 2013 and 2015 with increase into 2015-2016 and then decreasing at the margin from 2016 into 2017-2019. Inventory/sales ratios increase sharply followed by deep decline in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. There is renewed decrease in 2021 with marginal recovery.
Chart VA-5, Total Business Inventories/Sales Ratios 2012 to 2021
https://www.census.gov/mtis/img/mtisbrf.gif
IMPORTANT NOTE: Charts VA-3 through VA-4A cannot be updated because of the discontinuance of support of the Adobe Flash Player (https://www.adobe.com/products/flashplayer/end-of-life.html).
Chart VA-3 of the US Census Bureau provides total business inventories of manufacturers, retailers and merchant wholesalers seasonally adjusted (SA) in millions of dollars from Jan 1992 to Oct 2020. The impact of the two recessions of 2001 and IVQ2007 to IIQ2009 is evident in the form of sharp reductions in inventories. Inventories have surpassed the peak before the global recession. Data are not adjusted for price changes. Inventories decline in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.
Chart VA-3, US, Total Business Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, SA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 1992-Nov 2020
Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/mtis/index.html
Chart VA-3A of the US Census Bureau provides total business inventories of manufacturers, retailers and merchant wholesalers seasonally adjusted (SA) in millions of dollars from Jan 2019 to Oct 2020. Inventories sink in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.
Chart VA-3A, US, Total Business Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, SA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 2019-Oct 2020
Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/mtis/index.html
Chart VA-4 provides total business inventories of manufacturers, retailers and merchant wholesalers not seasonally adjusted (NSA) from Jan 1992 to Oct 2020 in millions of dollars. The recessions of 2001 and IVQ2007 to IIQ2009 are evident in the form of sharp reductions of inventories. There is sharp upward trend of inventory accumulation after both recessions. Total business inventories are higher than in the peak before the global recession. Inventories decrease in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.
Chart VA-4, US, Total Business Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, NSA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 1992-Oct 2020
Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/mtis/index.html
Chart VA-4A provides total business inventories of manufacturers, retailers and merchant wholesalers not seasonally adjusted (SA) from Jan 1992 to Oct 2020 in millions of dollars. There is sharp contraction in Mar-Jun 2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.
Chart VA-4A, US, Total Business Inventories of Manufacturers, Retailers and Merchant Wholesalers, NSA, Millions of Dollars, Jan 2019-Oct 2020
Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/mtis/index.html
Inventories follow business cycles. When recession hits sales inventories pile up, declining with expansion of the economy. In a fascinating classic opus, Lloyd Meltzer (1941, 129) concludes:
“The dynamic sequences (i) through (6) were intended to show what types of behavior are possible for a system containing a sales output lag. The following conclusions seem to be the most important:
(i) An economy in which business men attempt to recoup inventory losses will always undergo cyclical fluctuations when equilibrium is disturbed, provided the economy is stable.
This is the pure inventory cycle.
(2) The assumption of stability imposes severe limitations upon the possible size of the marginal propensity to consume, particularly if the coefficient of expectation is positive.
(3) The inventory accelerator is a more powerful de-stabilizer than the ordinary acceleration principle. The difference in stability conditions is due to the fact that the former allows for replacement demand whereas the usual analytical formulation of the latter does not. Thus, for inventories, replacement demand acts as a de-stabilizer. Whether it does so for all types of capital goods is a moot question, but I believe cases may occur in which it does not.
(4) Investment for inventory purposes cannot alter the equilibrium of income, which depends only upon the propensity to consume and the amount of non-induced investment.
(5) The apparent instability of a system containing both an accelerator and a coefficient of expectation makes further investigation of possible stabilizers highly desirable.”
Chart VA-5 shows the increase in the inventory/sales ratios during the recession of 2007-2009. The inventory/sales ratio fell during the expansions. The inventory/sales ratio declined to a trough in 2011, climbed and then stabilized at current levels in 2012, 2013 and 2015 with increase into 2015-2016 and then decreasing at the margin from 2016 into 2017-2019. Inventory/sales ratios increase sharply followed by deep decline in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. There is renewed decrease in 2021 with marginal recovery.
Chart VA-5, Total Business Inventories/Sales Ratios 2012 to 2021
https://www.census.gov/mtis/img/mtisbrf.gif
Sales of retail and food services increased 0.6 percent in Jun 2021, after decreasing 1.7 percent in May 2021 seasonally adjusted (SA), in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event and the through in Apr 2020 (https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021), increasing 22.8 percent in Jan-Jun 2021 relative to Jan-Jun 2020 not seasonally adjusted (NSA), as shown in Table VA-3. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales increased 1.3 percent in Jun 2021, decreasing 0.9 percent in May 2021 SA and increasing 19.2 percent NSA in Jan-Jun 2021 relative to a year earlier. Sales of motor vehicles and parts decreased 2.0 percent in Jun 2021 after decreasing 4.6 percent in May 2021 SA and increased 37.8 percent NSA in Jan-Jun 2021 relative to a year earlier. Gasoline station sales increased 2.5 percent SA in Jun 2021 after increasing 0.2 percent in May 2021 in oscillating prices of gasoline that are moderating, increasing 29.3 percent in Jan-Jun 2021 relative to a year earlier.
Table VA-3, US, Percentage Change in Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, ∆%
| Jun ∆% SA | May ∆% SA | Jan-Jun 2021 Million Dollars NSA | Jan-Jun 2021 from Jan-Jun 2020 ∆% NSA | |
| Retail and Food Services | 0.6 | -1.7 | 3,538,930 | 22.8 |
| Excluding Motor Vehicles and Parts | 1.3 | -0.9 | 2,760,594 | 19.2 |
| Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers | -2.0 | -4.6 | 778,336 | 37.8 |
| Retail | 0.3 | -2.4 | 3,158,336 | 22.2 |
| Building Materials | -1.6 | -5.3 | 243,490 | 18.3 |
| Food and Beverage | 0.6 | 1.0 | 432,571 | 1.3 |
| Grocery | 0.4 | 1.3 | 386,306 | 0.3 |
| Health & Personal Care Stores | 1.6 | -1.2 | 185,819 | 10.7 |
| Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores | 2.6 | 2.2 | 130,861 | 74.4 |
| Gasoline Stations | 2.5 | 0.2 | 266,533 | 29.3 |
| General Merchandise Stores | 1.9 | -3.1 | 385,413 | 10.2 |
| Food Services & Drinking Places | 2.3 | 3.7 | 380,594 | 28.5 |
Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html
Chart VA-9 provides percentage monthly and year-on-year changes of retail and food service sales. The other charts cannot be updated because of the discontinuance of support for the Adobe Flash Players (https://www.adobe.com/products/flashplayer/end-of-life.html).
Chart VA-9, Percent Change of Retail and Food Services Sales
Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html
IMPORTANT NOTE: CHARTS VA-6 THROUGH VA-8A CANNOT BE UPDATED BECAUSE OF THE DISCONTINUANCE OF SUPPORT FOR ADOBE FLASH PLAYER. (https://www.adobe.com/products/flashplayer/end-of-life.html)
Chart VA-6 provides monthly percentage changes of sales of retail and food services. There is significant monthly volatility that prevents identification of clear trends. Sales collapsed in Mar-Apr 2020, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event, with oscillating recovery in May-Dec 2020.
Chart VA-6, US, Monthly Percentage Change of Retail and Food Services Sales, Jan 1992-Dec 2020
Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html
Chart VA-6A provides monthly percentage changes of sales of retail and food services from Jan 2019 to Nov 2020.There is increase with oscillations in May-Dec 2020 after collapse in Feb-Apr 2020.
Chart VA-6A, US, Monthly Percentage Change of Retail and Food Services Sales, Jan 2019-Nov 2020
Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html
Chart VA-7 of the US Census Bureau provides total sales of retail trade and food services seasonally adjusted (SA) from Jan 1992 to Nov 2020 in millions of dollars. The impact on sales of the shallow recession of 2001 was much milder than the sharp contraction in the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. There is flattening in the final segment of the series followed by another increase/decrease. Sales collapsed in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Data are not adjusted for price changes. There is sharp decline in Feb-Mar 2020 with sharp recovery in May-Dec 2020.
Chart VA-7, US, Total Sales of Retail Trade and Food Services, SA, Jan 1992-Dec 2020, Millions of Dollars
Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html
Chart VA-7A of the US Census Bureau provides total sales of retail trade and food services seasonally adjusted (SA) from Jan 2019 to Nov 2020 in millions of dollars. Sales jumped in May-Nov 2020 in recovery from the contraction in Feb-Mar 2020.
Chart VA-7A, US, Total Sales of Retail Trade and Food Services, SA, Jan 2019-Nov 2020, Millions of Dollars
Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html
Chart VA-8 of the US Census Bureau provides total sales of retail trade and food services seasonally adjusted (NSA) from Jan 1992 to Nov 2020 in millions of dollars. Data are not adjusted for price changes. There is sharp contraction in Feb-Apr 2020, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event, with sharp recovery in May-Dec 2020.
Chart VA-8, US, Total Sales of Retail Trade and Food Services, NSA, Jan 1992-Nov 2020, Millions of Dollars
Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html
Chart VA-8A of the US Census Bureau provides total sales of retail trade and food services not seasonally adjusted (NSA) from Jan 2019 to Nov 2020 in millions of dollars. Data are not adjusted for price changes. There is sharp recovery in May-Dec 2020 with stability.
Chart VA-8A, US, Total Sales of Retail Trade and Food Services, NSA, Jan 2019-Nov 2020, Millions of Dollars
Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html
Chart VA-9, Percent Change of Retail and Food Services Sales
Source: US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html
Table VI-7C provides additional information required for understanding the deficit/debt situation of the United States. The table is divided into four parts: Treasury budget in the 2021 fiscal year beginning on Oct 1, 2020 and ending on Sep 30, 2021; federal fiscal data for the years from 2009 to 2019; federal fiscal data for the years from 2005 to 2008; and Treasury debt held by the public from 2005 to 2019. Receipts increased 35.2 percent in the cumulative fiscal year 2021 ending in Jun 2021 relative to the cumulative in fiscal year 2020. Individual income taxes increased 61.6 percent relative to the same fiscal period a year earlier. Outlays increased 5.8 percent relative to a year earlier. There are also receipts, outlays, deficit and debt for fiscal years 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019. In fiscal year 2019, the deficit reached $984.4 billion or 4.6 percent of GDP. Outlays of 4,446.6 billion were 21.0 percent of GDP and receipts of $3,462.2 billion were 16.3 percent of GDP. It is quite difficult for the US to raise receipts above 18 percent of GDP. Total revenues of the US from 2009 to 2012 accumulate to $9021.2 billion, or $9.0 trillion, while expenditures or outlays accumulate to $14,104.5 billion, or $14.1 trillion, with the deficit accumulating to $5083.3 billion, or $5.1 trillion. Revenues decreased 6.5 percent from $9652.5 billion in the four years from 2005 to 2008 to $9021.2 billion in the years from 2009 to 2012. Decreasing revenues were caused by the global recession from IVQ2007 (Dec) to IIQ2009 (Jun) and by growth of only 2.0 percent on average in the cyclical expansion from IIIQ2009 to IQ2021. In contrast, the expansion from IQ1983 to IIIQ1994 was at the average annual growth rate of 3.7 percent and at 7.9 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/06/us-gdp-growing-continuing-recovery-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/05/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-64-percent-in_29.html). Because of mediocre GDP growth, there are 27.4 million unemployed or underemployed in the United States for an effective unemployment/underemployment rate of 15.8 percent (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/07/increase-in-jun-2021-of-nonfarm-payroll.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/06/increase-in-may-2021-of-nonfarm-payroll.html). Weakness of growth and employment creation is analyzed in II Collapse of United States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation (Section II and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2021/07/total-nonfarm-hires-move-from-4986.html). In contrast with the decline of revenue, outlays or expenditures increased 30.1 percent from $10,838.2 billion, or $10.8 trillion, in the four years from 2005 to 2008, to $14,104.5 billion, or $14.1 trillion, in the four years from 2009 to 2012. Increase in expenditures by 30.1 percent while revenue declined by 6.5 percent caused the increase in the federal deficit from $1185.8 billion in 2005-2008 to $5083.3 billion in 2009-2012. Federal revenue was 14.8 percent of GDP on average in the years from 2009 to 2012, which is well below 17.3 percent of GDP on average from 1962 to 2019. Federal outlays were 23.3 percent of GDP on average from 2009 to 2012, which is well above 20.1 percent of GDP on average from 1962 to 2019. The lower part of Table VI-7C shows that debt held by the public swelled from $5803 billion in 2008 to $13,117 billion in 2015, by $7314 billion or 126.0 percent. Debt held by the public as percent of GDP or economic activity jumped from 39.4 percent in 2008 to 79.2 percent in 2019, which is well above the average of 41.7 percent from 1962 to 2019. The United States faces tough adjustment because growth is unlikely to recover, creating limits on what can be obtained by increasing revenues, while continuing stress of social programs restricts what can be obtained by reducing expenditures. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) provides a preliminary estimate of the impact of Public Law 116-136 of Mar 27, 2020, CARES Act or Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act (https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-04/hr748.pdf). This preliminary estimate finds that the CARES Act “will increase federal deficits by about $1.8 trillion over the 2020-2030 period (https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-04/hr748.pdf).
Table VI-7C, US, Treasury Budget in Fiscal Year to Date Million Dollars
| Jun 2021 | Fiscal Year 2021 | Fiscal Year 2020 | ∆% |
| Receipts | 3,056,078 | 2,260,069 | 35.2 |
| Outlays | 5,294,027 | 5,004,372 | 5.8 |
| Deficit | -2,237,949 | -2,744,303 | |
| Individual Income Tax | 1,590,663 | 984,593 | 61.6 |
| Corporation Income Tax | 265,144 | 92,106 | 187.9 |
| Social Insurance | 712,567 | 732,785 | -2.8 |
| Receipts | Outlays | Deficit (-), Surplus (+) | |
| $ Billions | |||
| Fiscal Year 2019 | 3,462.2 | 4,446.6 | -984.4 |
| % GDP | 16.3 | 21.0 | -4.6 |
| Fiscal Year 2018 | 3,329.9 | 4,109.0 | -779.1 |
| % GDP | 16.4 | 20.2 | -3.8 |
| Fiscal Year 2017 | 3,316.2 | 3,981.6 | -665.4 |
| % GDP | 17.2 | 20.6 | -3.5 |
| Fiscal Year 2016 | 3,268.0 | 3,852.6 | -584.7 |
| % GDP | 17.6 | 20.8 | -3.2 |
| Fiscal Year 2015 | 3,249.9 | 3,691.8 | -442.0 |
| % GDP | 18.0 | 20.4 | -2.4 |
| Fiscal Year 2014 | 3,021.5 | 3,506.3 | -484.8 |
| % GDP | 17.4 | 20.2 | -2.8 |
| Fiscal Year 2013 | 2,775.1 | 3,454.9 | -679.8 |
| % GDP | 16.7 | 20.8 | -4.1 |
| Fiscal Year 2012 | 2,450.0 | 3,526.6 | -1,076.6 |
| % GDP | 15.3 | 22.0 | -6.7 |
| Fiscal Year 2011 | 2,303.5 | 3,603.1 | -1,299.6 |
| % GDP | 15.0 | 23.4 | -8.4 |
| Fiscal Year 2010 | 2,162.7 | 3,457.1 | -1,294.4 |
| % GDP | 14.6 | 23.3 | -8.7 |
| Fiscal Year 2009 | 2,105.0 | 3,517.7 | -1,412.7 |
| % GDP | 14.6 | 24.4 | -9.8 |
| Total 2009-2012 | 9,021.2 | 14,104.5 | -5,083.3 |
| Average % GDP 2009-2012 | 14.8 | 23.3 | -8.4 |
| Fiscal Year 2008 | 2,524.0 | 2,982.5 | -458.6 |
| % GDP | 17.1 | 20.2 | -3.1 |
| Fiscal Year 2007 | 2,568.0 | 2,728.7 | -160.7 |
| % GDP | 18.0 | 19.1 | -1.1 |
| Fiscal Year 2006 | 2,406.9 | 2,655.1 | -248.2 |
| % GDP | 17.6 | 19.5 | -1.8 |
| Fiscal Year 2005 | 2,153.6 | 2,472.0 | -318.3 |
| % GDP | 16.8 | 19.3 | -2.5 |
| Total 2005-2008 | 9,652.5 | 10,838.2 | -1,185.8 |
| Average % GDP 2005-2008 | 17.4 | 19.5 | -2.1 |
| Debt Held by the Public | Billions of Dollars | Percent of GDP | |
| 2005 | 4,592 | 35.8 | |
| 2006 | 4,829 | 35.4 | |
| 2007 | 5,035 | 35.2 | |
| 2008 | 5,803 | 39.4 | |
| 2009 | 7,545 | 52.3 | |
| 2010 | 9,019 | 60.8 | |
| 2011 | 10,128 | 65.8 | |
| 2012 | 11,281 | 70.3 | |
| 2013 | 11,983 | 72.2 | |
| 2014 | 12,780 | 73.7 | |
| 2015 | 13,117 | 72.5 | |
| 2016 | 14,168 | 76.4 | |
| 2017 | 14,666 | 76.0 | |
| 2018 | 15,750 | 77.4 | |
| 2019 | 16,803 | 79.2 |
Source: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/
https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/sm0184.aspx https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm806 CBO, The budget and economic outlook: 2018 to 2028. Washington, DC, Apr 9 https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53651
CBO, The budget and economic outlook: 2017-2027. Washington, DC, Jan 24, 2017 https://www.cbo.gov/publication/52370 CBO, An update to the budget and economic outlook: 2016 to 2026. Washington, DC, Aug 23, 2016.
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget-economic-data#6
CBO (2012NovMBR). CBO (2011AugBEO); Office of Management and Budget 2011. Historical Tables. Budget of the US Government Fiscal Year 2011. Washington, DC: OMB; CBO. 2011JanBEO. Budget and Economic Outlook. Washington, DC, Jan. CBO. 2012AugBEO. Budget and Economic Outlook. Washington, DC, Aug 22. CBO. 2012Jan31. Historical budget data. Washington, DC, Jan 31. CBO. 2012NovCDR. Choices for deficit reduction. Washington, DC. Nov. CBO. 2013HBDFeb5. Historical budget data—February 2013 baseline projections. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Feb 5. CBO. 2013HBDFeb5. Historical budget data—February 2013 baseline projections. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Feb 5. CBO (2013Aug12). 2013AugHBD. Historical budget data—August 2013. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Aug. CBO, Historical Budget Data—February 2014, Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Feb. CBO, Historical budget data—April 2014 release. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Apr. Congressional Budget Office, August 2014 baseline: an update to the budget and economic outlook: 2014 to 2024. Washington, DC, CBO, Aug 27, 2014. CBO, Monthly budget review: summary of fiscal year 2014. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Nov 10, 2014. CBO, The budget and economic outlook: 2015 to 2025. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Jan 26, 2015.
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget-economic-data#6
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget_economic_data#3 https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget_economic_data#2
Risk aversion channels funds toward US long-term and short-term securities that finance the
US balance of payments and fiscal deficits benefitting from risk flight to US dollar
denominated assets. There were temporary interruptions because of fear of rising interest
rates that erode prices of US government securities because of mixed signals on monetary
policy and exit from the Fed balance sheet of seven trillion dollars of securities held
outright. On Aug 27, 2020, the Federal Open Market Committee changed its Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, including the following
(https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/review-of-monetary-policy-strategy-tools-and-communications-statement-on-longer-run-goals-monetary-policy-strategy.htm): “The Committee judges that longer-term inflation expectations that are well anchored at 2 percent foster price stability and moderate long-term interest rates and enhance the Committee's ability to promote maximum employment in the face of significant economic disturbances. In order to anchor longer-term inflation expectations at this level, the Committee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.” The new policy can affect relative exchange rates depending on relative inflation rates and country risk issues. Net foreign purchases of US long-term securities (row C in Table VA-4) weakened from $58.2 billion in Apr 2021 to minus $63.6 billion in May 2021. Foreign residents’ purchases minus sales of US long-term securities (row A in Table VA-4) in Apr 2021 of $93.2 billion weakened to minus $40.3 billion in May 2021. Net US (residents) purchases of long-term foreign securities (row B in Table VA-4) strengthened from $7.5 billion in Apr 2021 to $10.1 billion in May 2021. Other transactions (row C2 in Table VA-4) changed from minus $42.5 billion in Apr 2021 to minus $33.4 billion in May 2021. In May 2021,
C = A + B + C2 = -$40.3 billion + $10.1 billion - $33.4 billion = $63.6 billion.
There are minor rounding errors. There is weakening demand in Table VA-4 in May 2021 in A1 private purchases by residents overseas of US long-term securities of minus $41.6 billion of which weakening in A11 Treasury securities of minus $77.8 billion, weakening in A12 of $15.7 billion in agency securities, strengthening of $17.9 billion of corporate bonds and strengthening of $2.6 billion in equities. Worldwide risk aversion causes flight into US Treasury obligations with significant oscillations. Official purchases of securities in row A2 increased $1.3 billion with decrease of Treasury securities of $15.5 billion in May 2021. Official purchases of agency securities increased $22.1 billion in May 2021. Corporate bonds changed minus $0.6 billion. Row D shows increase in May 2021 of $9.7 billion in purchases of short-term dollar denominated obligations. Foreign holdings of US Treasury bills decreased $18.5 billion (row D1) with foreign official holdings decreasing $24.1 billion while the category “other” increased $28.3 billion. Foreign private holdings of US Treasury bills increased $5.6 billion in what could be arbitrage of duration exposures and international risks. Risk aversion of default losses in foreign securities dominates decisions to accept zero interest rates in Treasury securities with no perception of principal losses. In the case of long-term securities, investors prefer to sacrifice inflation and possible duration risk to avoid principal losses with significant oscillations in risk perceptions.
Table VA-4, Net Cross-Borders Flows of US Long-Term Securities, Billion Dollars, NSA
| May 20 12 Months | May 21 12 Months | Apr 2021 | May 2021 | |
| A Foreign Purchases less Sales of | -106.0 | 706.1 | 93.2 | -40.3 |
| A1 Private | 51.8 | 476.1 | 57.0 | -41.6 |
| A11 Treasury | -259.7 | -61.2 | 43.8 | -77.8 |
| A12 Agency | 211.6 | 274.1 | 18.3 | 15.7 |
| A13 Corporate Bonds | -47.5 | -38.1 | 10.2 | 17.9 |
| A14 Equities | 147.4 | 301.3 | -15.2 | 2.6 |
| A2 Official | -157.9 | 230.0 | 36.1 | 1.3 |
| A21 Treasury | -340.5 | -13.7 | 5.7 | -15.5 |
| A22 Agency | 155.0 | 216.1 | 28.5 | 22.1 |
| A23 Corporate Bonds | 12.0 | 12.6 | 0.0 | -0.6 |
| A24 Equities | 15.6 | 15.0 | 1.9 | -4.7 |
| B Net US Purchases of LT Foreign Securities | 360.4 | 304.3 | 7.5 | 10.1 |
| B1 Foreign Bonds | 276.9 | 251.1 | 37.1 | 26.3 |
| B2 Foreign Equities | 83.5 | 53.2 | -29.6 | -16.1 |
| C1 Net Transactions | 254.3 | 1010.5 | 100.7 | -30.2 |
| C2 Other | -281.4 | -489.7 | -42.5 | -33.4 |
| C Net Foreign Purchases of US LT Securities | -27.1 | 520.8 | 58.2 | -63.6 |
| D Increase in Foreign Holdings of Dollar Denominated Short-term | ||||
| US Securities & Other Liab | 360.2 | -78.4 | -44.2 | 9.7 |
| D1 US Treasury Bills | 233.4 | -74.1 | -60.1 | -18.5 |
| D11 Private | 175.7 | -14.5 | -19.7 | 5.6 |
| D12 Official | 57.7 | -59.6 | -40.4 | -24.1 |
| D2 Other | 126.7 | -4.3 | 15.9 | 28.3 |
C1 = A + B; C = C1+C2
A = A1 + A2
A1 = A11 + A12 + A13 + A14
A2 = A21 + A22 + A23 + A24
B = B1 + B2
D = D1 + D2
Sources: United States Treasury
https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Pages/ticpress.aspx
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases
Table VA-5 provides major foreign holders of US Treasury securities. China is the second largest holder with $1078.4 billion in May 2021, decreasing 1.6 percent from $1096.1 billion in Apr 2021 while decreasing $5.3 billion from May 2020 or 0.5 percent. The United States Treasury estimates US government debt held by private investors at $16,431 billion in Mar 2021 (Fiscal Year 2021). China’s holding of US Treasury securities in May 2021 represents 6.6 percent of US government marketable interest-bearing debt held by private investors (https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/treasury-bulletin/). Min Zeng, writing on “China plays a big role as US Treasury yields fall,” on Jul 16, 2014, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/articles/china-plays-a-big-role-as-u-s-treasury-yields-fall-1405545034?tesla=y&mg=reno64-wsj), finds that acceleration in purchases of US Treasury securities by China has been an important factor in the decline of Treasury yields in 2014. Japan increased its holdings from $1260.4 billion in May 2020 to $1266.2 billion in May 2021 or 0.5 percent. The combined holdings of China and Japan in May 2021 add to $2344.6 billion, which is equivalent to 14.3 percent of US government marketable interest-bearing securities held by investors of $16,431 billion in Mar 2021 (Fiscal Year 2021) (https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/treasury-bulletin/). Total foreign holdings of Treasury securities increased from $6978.0 billion in May 2020 to $7135.0 billion in May 2021, or 2.2 percent. The US continues to finance its fiscal and balance of payments deficits with foreign savings (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007). Professor Martin Feldstein, at Harvard University, writing on “The Debt Crisis Is Coming Soon,” published in the Wall Street Journal on Mar 20, 2019 (https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-debt-crisis-is-coming-soon-11553122139?mod=hp_opin_pos3), foresees a US debt crisis with deficits moving above $1 trillion and debt above 100 percent of GDP. A point of saturation of holdings of US Treasury debt may be reached as foreign holders evaluate the threat of reduction of principal by dollar devaluation and reduction of prices by increases in yield, including possibly risk premium. Shultz et al (2012) find that the Fed financed three-quarters of the US deficit in fiscal year 2011, with foreign governments financing significant part of the remainder of the US deficit while the Fed owns one in six dollars of US national debt. Concentrations of debt in few holders are perilous because of sudden exodus in fear of devaluation and yield increases and the limit of refinancing old debt and placing new debt. In their classic work on “unpleasant monetarist arithmetic,” Sargent and Wallace (1981, 2) consider a regime of domination of monetary policy by fiscal policy (emphasis added):
“Imagine that fiscal policy dominates monetary policy. The fiscal authority independently sets its budgets, announcing all current and future deficits and surpluses and thus determining the amount of revenue that must be raised through bond sales and seignorage. Under this second coordination scheme, the monetary authority faces the constraints imposed by the demand for government bonds, for it must try to finance with seignorage any discrepancy between the revenue demanded by the fiscal authority and the amount of bonds that can be sold to the public. Suppose that the demand for government bonds implies an interest rate on bonds greater than the economy’s rate of growth. Then if the fiscal authority runs deficits, the monetary authority is unable to control either the growth rate of the monetary base or inflation forever. If the principal and interest due on these additional bonds are raised by selling still more bonds, so as to continue to hold down the growth of base money, then, because the interest rate on bonds is greater than the economy’s growth rate, the real stock of bonds will growth faster than the size of the economy. This cannot go on forever, since the demand for bonds places an upper limit on the stock of bonds relative to the size of the economy. Once that limit is reached, the principal and interest due on the bonds already sold to fight inflation must be financed, at least in part, by seignorage, requiring the creation of additional base money.”
Table VA-5, US, Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities $ Billions at End of Period
| May 2021 | Apr 2021 | May 2020 | |
| Total | 7135.0 | 7070.3 | 6978.0 |
| Japan | 1266.2 | 1276.8 | 1260.4 |
| China | 1078.4 | 1096.1 | 1083.7 |
| United Kingdom | 467.7 | 431.8 | 445.8 |
| Ireland | 304.9 | 307.0 | 324.2 |
| Luxembourg | 287.6 | 291.0 | 262.7 |
| Switzerland | 264.9 | 261.0 | 243.1 |
| Brazil | 251.8 | 255.3 | 264.4 |
| Belgium | 236.4 | 234.8 | 212.1 |
| Taiwan | 236.3 | 234.0 | 199.2 |
| Cayman Islands | 228.7 | 226.0 | 216.7 |
| Hong Kong | 224.1 | 215.9 | 269.0 |
| India | 215.8 | 208.7 | 169.9 |
| Singapore | 176.3 | 171.1 | 142.1 |
| Saudi Arabia | 127.3 | 130.3 | 123.5 |
| Foreign Official Holdings | 4226.1 | 4201.6 | 4105.9 |
| A. Treasury Bills | 296.1 | 320.2 | 355.7 |
| B. Treasury Bonds and Notes | 3930.0 | 3881.4 | 3750.2 |
Source: United States Treasury
http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Pages/ticpress.aspx
http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Pages/index.aspx
https://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt
© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021.
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