CMP Associates Regulation Blog

Chart V-3C provides nonfarm payroll manufacturing jobs in the United States from Jan 2007 to Nov 2020. Nonfarm payroll manufacturing jobs fell from 13.987 million in Jun 2007 to 12.257 million in Nov 2020, or 1.730 million.

Chart V-3C, United States, Payroll Manufacturing Jobs, NSA, Jan 2007 to Nov 2020, Thousands

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm

Chart V-3D provides the index of US manufacturing (NAICS) from Jan 1972 to Nov 2020. The index continued increasing during the decline of manufacturing jobs after the early 1980s. There are likely effects of changes in the composition of manufacturing with also changes in productivity and trade. There is sharp decline in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. There is initial recovery in May-Nov 2020.

Chart V-3D, United States Manufacturing (NAICS) NSA, Jan 1972 to Nov 2020

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Chart V-3E provides the US noninstitutional civilian population, or those in condition of working, from Jan 1948, when first available, to Nov 2020. The noninstitutional civilian population increased from 170.042 million in Jun 1981 to 261.085 million in Nov 2020, or 91.043 million.

Chart V-3E, United States, Civilian Noninstitutional Population, Million, NSA, Jan 1948 to Nov 2020

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Chart V-3F provides manufacturing jobs in the United States from Jan 1939 to Oct 2020. Nonfarm payroll manufacturing jobs decreased from a peak of 18.890 million in Jun 1981 to 12.257 million in Oct 2020.

Chart V-3F, United States, Payroll Manufacturing Jobs, NSA, Jan 1939 to Nov 2020, Thousands

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

There is global stress in manufacturing. Table V-3B provides month and 12-month percentage changes of new orders in manufacturing and output of manufacturing in Germany.

Table V-3B, Germany, Manufacturing Orders and Manufacturing Output, ∆% Month and 12 Months

	MFG New Orders Month ∆%	MFG New Orders 12 Months ∆%	MFG Output Month ∆%	MFG Output 12 Month ∆%
Oct 2020	2.9	2.4	3.1	-3.5
Sep	1.1	1.9	2.3	-5.1
Aug	4.9	-3.8	0.1	-13.3
Jul	3.2	-6.8	3.1	-11.1
Jun	28.7	-5.4	11.2	-7.4
May	10.4	-33.4	9.9	-28.6
Apr	-26.0	-36.9	-20.7	-29.8
Mar	-14.8	-11.9	-11.0	-9.2
Feb	-1.3	0.7	0.4	-3.7
Jan	4.9	-1.9	2.3	-4.2
Dec 2019	-1.5	-7.1	-1.5	-4.5
Nov	-1.0	-8.5	0.7	-6.9
Oct	-0.2	-5.4	-1.2	-5.6
Sep	0.8	-1.8	-0.8	-1.1
Aug	-0.7	-9.0	0.2	-7.4
Jul	-0.8	-1.8	-0.2	-0.6
Jun	1.4	-11.0	-1.2	-14.4
May	-1.5	-3.6	0.9	1.3
Apr	-0.7	-5.2	-2.6	-3.9
Mar	2.5	-6.2	0.7	-3.4
Feb	-4.0	-7.2	-0.1	0.1
Jan	-3.2	-3.6	-1.0	-3.1
Dec 2018	1.5	-8.2	1.1	-6.7
Dec 2017	2.5	3.9	-0.4	3.7
Dec 2016	4.5	11.2	-1.6	2.0
Dec 2015	-1.5	-0.5	0.8	1.1

Source: Federal Statistical Agency of Germany, https://www.destatis.de/EN/Home/_node.html

Table V-3 provides the latest available estimates of GDP for the regions and countries followed in this blog from IQ2012 to IVQ2018 available now for all countries. There are estimates for all countries for IQ2019 and for IIQ2019 for most countries. There are preliminary estimates for most countries for IIIQ2019 and for IVQ2019. There are some estimates for IQ2020. Growth is weak throughout most of the world.

Japan. The GDP of Japan increased 1.4 percent in IQ2012, 5.7 percent at SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) and increased 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier but part of the jump could be the low level a year earlier because of the Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan is experiencing difficulties with the overvalued yen because of worldwide capital flight originating in zero interest rates with risk aversion in an environment of softer growth of world trade. Japan’s GDP fell 0.9 percent in IIQ2012 at the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of minus 3.6 percent, which is much lower than 5.7 percent in IQ2012. Growth of 2.8 percent in IIQ2012 in Japan relative to IIQ2011 has effects of the low level of output because of Tōhoku or Great East Earthquake and Tsunami of Mar 11, 2011. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IIIQ2012 at the SAAR of minus 1.5 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 at the SAAR of minus 0.3 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan grew 1.4 percent in IQ2013 at the SAAR of 5.6 percent and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.9 percent in IIQ2013 at the SAAR of 3.6 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP grew 1.0 percent in IIIQ2013 at the SAAR of 3.9 percent and increased 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Japan’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent at the SAAR of minus 0.5 percent, increasing 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IQ2014 at the SAAR of 3.3 percent and increased 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Japan’s GDP fell 1.8 percent at the SAAR of minus 7.1 percent and fell 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 at the SAAR of 0.4 percent and fell 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, Japan’s GDP grew 0.5 percent, at the SAAR of 2.0 percent, decreasing 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 1.5 percent in IQ2015 at the SAAR of 6.3 percent and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2015 at the SAAR of 0.4 percent and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Japan increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2015 at the SAAR of 0.4 percent and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP contracted 0.1 percent in IVQ2015 at the SAAR of minus 0.4 percent and grew 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, the GDP of Japan increased 0.7 percent at the SAAR of 2.9 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IIQ2016 at the SAAR of minus 0.8 percent and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of Japan increased 0.2 percent at the SAAR of 0.8 percent and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2016 at the SAAR of 1.2 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, the GDP of Japan increased 0.7 percent at the SAAR of 3.0 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2017 at the SAAR of 1.0 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, the GDP of Japan increased 0.8 percent at the SAAR of 3.2 percent and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2017, at the SAAR of 1.6 percent, and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, the GDP of Japan changed 0.0 percent, at the SAAR of minus 0.1 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2018, at the SAAR of 0.2 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, the GDP of Japan contracted 0.7 percent at the SAAR of minus 2.6 percent and decreased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2018, at the SAAR of 1.8 percent and decreased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, the GDP of Japan increased 0.6 percent at the SAAR of 2.3 percent and grew 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2019, at the SAAR of 0.3 percent and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, the GDP of Japan increased 0.2 percent at the SAAR of 0.7 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Japan’s GDP decreased 1.9 percent in IVQ2019, at the SAAR of minus 7.2 percent and decreased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2020, the GDP of Japan contracted 0.5 percent at the SAAR of minus 2.1 percent and decreased 2.0 percent relative to a year. The GDP of Japan contracted 8.3 percent in IIQ2020 at the SAAR of minus 29.2 percent and decreased 10.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2020, the GDP of Japan increased 5.3 percent at the SAAR of 22.9 percent and decreased 5.7 percent relative to a year earlier.
China. China’s GDP grew 1.9 percent in IQ2012, annualizing to 7.8 percent, and 8.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of China grew at 2.1 percent in IIQ2012, which annualizes to 8.7 percent, and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 1.8 percent in IIIQ2012, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and 7.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, China grew at 2.0 percent, which annualizes at 8.2 percent, and 8.1 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, China grew at 1.9 percent, which annualizes at 7.8 percent, and 7.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, China grew at 1.8 percent, which annualizes at 7.4 percent, and 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 2.1 percent in IIIQ2013, which annualizes at 8.7 percent, and increased 7.9 percent relative to a year earlier. China grew at 1.6 percent in IVQ2013, which annualized to 6.6 percent, and 7.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 7.5 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent in IQ2014 that is equivalent to 7.4 percent per year. GDP grew 7.6 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is annual equivalent 7.4 percent. In IIIQ2014, GDP grew 7.2 percent relative to a year earlier and 1.8 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is 7.4 percent in annual equivalent. GDP grew 1.7 percent in IVQ2014, which is 7.0 percent in annual equivalent and 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2015, GDP grew 1.9 percent, which is equivalent to 7.8 in a year and 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 1.8 percent in IIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.4 percent in a year, and grew 7.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.7 percent in IIIQ2015, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent in a year, and grew 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.6 percent in IVQ2015, which is equivalent to 6.6 percent in a year and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, GDP grew at 1.5 percent, which is equivalent to 6.1 percent in a year, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.8 percent in IIQ2016, which is annual equivalent to 7.4 percent, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, GDP grew at 1.7 percent, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent in a year and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, GDP grew at 1.6 percent, equivalent to 6.6 percent in a year, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew 7.0 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased at 1.7 percent, which is 7.0 percent in annual equivalent. In IIQ2017, GDP grew at 1.8 percent, which is annual equivalent at 7.4 percent, and increased 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.6 percent in IIIQ2017, which is annual equivalent at 6.6 percent, and increased at 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, GDP grew 1.6 percent, which is annual equivalent to 6.6 percent, and increased 6.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.9 percent in IQ2018, which is annual equivalent at 7.8 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2018, GDP grew at 1.7 percent, which is annual equivalent to 7.0 percent, and increased 6.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.3 percent in IIIQ2018, which is annual equivalent at 5.3 percent, and increased 6.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2018, GDP grew at 1.5 percent, which is annual equivalent to 6.1 percent, and increased 6.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.9 percent in IQ2019, which is annual equivalent to 7.8 percent, and increased 6.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2019, GDP grew at 1.3 percent, which is annual equivalent to 5.3 percent and increased 6.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP grew at 1.0 percent in IIIQ2019, which is annual equivalent to 4.1 percent, and increased 6.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2019, GDP grew at 1.6 percent, which is annual equivalent to 6.6 percent, and increased 6.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP contracted minus 10.0 percent in IQ2020, which is annual equivalent to minus 65.6 percent, and contracted minus 6.8 percent in IQ2020 relative to a year earlier, in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. GDP grew at 11.7 percent in IIQ2020, which is equivalent to 55.7 percent in a year and grew 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2020, GDP grew 2.7 percent, which is annual equivalent at 11.2 percent, and grew 4.9 percent relative to a year earlier. There was decennial change in leadership in China (http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/special/18cpcnc/index.htm). Xi Jinping initiated a second term of leadership in Oct 2017 (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-10/25/c_136705344.htm). Growth rates of GDP of China in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier have been declining from 2011 to 2020.

Euro Area. GDP fell 0.2 percent in the euro area in IQ2012 and decreased 0.5 in IQ2012 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP contracted 0.3 percent IIQ2012 and fell 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.1 percent and declined 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2012, euro area GDP fell 0.4 percent relative to the prior quarter and fell 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, the GDP of the euro area fell 0.4 percent and decreased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2013, euro area GDP increased 0.3 percent and changed 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2013 and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The euro area’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 0.7 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The euro area’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Euro area’s GDP increased 0.6 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2016 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, euro area GDP increased 0.7 percent and increased 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2017 and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.8 percent and grew 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area grew 0.8 percent in IVQ2017 and increased 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent and grew 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area grew 0.4 percent in IIQ2018 and increased 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2018 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2019 and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, the GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2019 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2020, the GDP of the euro area decreased 3.7 percent and decreased 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area contracted 11.7 percent in IIQ2020 and contracted 14.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2020, the GDP of the euro area increased 12.5 percent and contracted 4.3 percent relative to a year earlier.
Germany. The GDP of Germany increased 0.2 percent in IQ2012 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier but 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier when adjusted for calendar effects (CA). In IIIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IVQ2012 and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, Germany’s GDP decreased 0.5 percent and fell 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 1.1 percent and grew 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2013 and grew 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 1.0 percent in IQ2014 and grew 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Germany’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany decreased 0.5 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2015 and grew 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and grew 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2015 and grew 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, the GDP of Germany increased 0.9 percent and grew 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 3.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of Germany increased 0.2 percent and grew 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2016 and grew 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, the GDP of Germany increased 1.2 percent and grew 3.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2017 and grew 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier and 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier adjusting for calendar effects (CA). In IIIQ2017, the GDP of Germany increased 0.9 percent and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier and 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2017, 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier and 3.6 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany decreased 0.2 percent in IQ2018 and grew 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier and 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2018, 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier and 2.0 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany decreased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2018, increasing 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier and 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2018, increasing 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier and 0.3 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany increased 0.6 percent in IQ2019, increasing 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier and increasing 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP contracted 0.5 percent in IIQ2019, decreased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier and increased 0.1 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2019, increasing 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier and increasing 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2019, increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP decreased 1.9 percent in IQ2020, decreased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier and decreased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany decreased 9.8 percent in IIQ2020, decreased 11.3 percent relative to a year earlier and decreased 11.3 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 8.5 percent in IIIQ2020, decreased 3.9 percent relative to a year earlier and decreased 4.0 percent relative to a year earlier (CA).
United States. Growth of US GDP in IQ2012 was 0.8 percent, at SAAR of 3.2 percent and higher by 2.7 percent relative to IQ2011. US GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2012, 1.7 percent at SAAR and 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, US GDP grew 0.1 percent, 0.5 percent at SAAR and 2.5 percent relative to IIIQ2011. In IVQ2012, US GDP grew 0.1 percent, 0.5 percent at SAAR and 1.5 percent relative to IVQ2011. In IQ2013, US GDP grew at 3.6 percent SAAR, 0.9 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.6 percent relative to the same quarter in 2012. In IIQ2013, US GDP grew at 0.5 percent in SAAR, 0.1 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.3 percent relative to IIQ2012. US GDP grew at 3.2 percent in SAAR in IIIQ2013, 0.8 percent relative to the prior quarter and 1.9 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/12/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-334-percent-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/11/dollar-devaluation-increasing.html). In IVQ2013, US GDP grew 0.8 percent at 3.2 percent SAAR and 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, US GDP decreased 0.3 percent, increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier and fell 1.1 percent at SAAR. In IIQ2014, US GDP increased 1.4 percent at 5.5 percent SAAR and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP increased 1.2 percent in IIIQ2014 at 5.0 percent SAAR and increased 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, US GDP increased 0.6 percent at SAAR of 2.3 percent and increased 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.9 percent in IQ2015 at SAAR of 3.8 percent and grew 4.1 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.7 percent in IIQ2015, increasing 0.7 percent in the quarter and 3.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 at SAAR of 1.5 percent and grew 2.6 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 0.6 percent in IVQ2015, increasing 0.2 percent in the quarter and 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, US GDP grew 0.6 percent at SAAR of 2.3 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 1.3 percent in IIQ2016, increasing 0.3 percent in the quarter and 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, US GDP grew 0.5 percent at SAAR of 2.2 percent and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.5 percent in IVQ2016, increasing 0.6 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, US GDP grew 0.6 percent at SAAR of 2.3 percent and increased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 1.7 percent in IIQ2017, increasing 0.4 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, US GDP grew 0.7 percent at SAAR of 2.9 percent and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 3.9 percent in IVQ2017, increasing 1.0 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, US GDP grew at SAAR of 3.8 percent, increasing 0.9 percent in the quarter, and increasing 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.7 percent in IIQ2018, increasing 0.7 percent in the quarter, and increasing 3.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.1 percent, increasing 0.5 percent in the quarter, and increasing 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 1.3 percent in IVQ2018, increasing 0.3 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.9 percent, increasing 0.7 percent in the quarter and increasing 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 1.5 percent in IIQ2019, increasing 0.4 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.6 percent, increasing 0.6 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 2.4 percent in IVQ2019, increasing 0.6 percent in the quarter, and increasing 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2020, US GDP contracted at SAAR of minus 5.0 percent, decreasing 1.3 percent in the quarter, and increasing 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2020, US GDP contracted at SAAR of minus 31.4 percent, decreasing 9.0 percent in the quarter and decreasing 9.0 percent relative to a year earlier. US GDP grew at SAAR of 33.4 percent in IIIQ2020, increasing 7.5 percent in the quarter, and decreasing 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier.
United Kingdom. In IQ2012, UK GDP increased 0.7 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, GDP fell 0.1 percent relative to IQ2012 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, GDP increased 1.2 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to the same quarter a year earlier. In IVQ2012, GDP fell 0.2 percent and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Fiscal consolidation in an environment of weakening economic growth is much more challenging. GDP increased 1.4 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 0.5 percent in IQ2013 relative to IVQ2012. In IIQ2013, GDP increased 0.8 percent and 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.9 percent in IIIQ2013 and 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IVQ2013 and 2.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, GDP increased 0.8 percent and 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2014 and 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2014 and 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2014, GDP increased 0.6 percent and 2.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2015 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2015 and increased 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 2.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2016 and increased 2.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2016 and grew 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IVQ2016 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. UK GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2017 and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2017, GDP increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2017 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2018, GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2018 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2018, GDP increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2018 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2019, GDP increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2019 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2019, GDP increased 0.5 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2019 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2020, GDP decreased 3.0 percent and decreased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP decreased 18.8 percent in IIQ2020 and decreased 20.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2020, GDP increased 16.0 percent and decreased 8.6 percent relative to a year earlier.
Italy. Italy’s GDP grew 15.9 percent in IIIQ2020 and contracted 5.0 percent relative to a year earlier in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The GDP of Italy contracted 13.0 percent in IIQ2020 and contracted 18.0 percent relative to a year earlier in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Italy’s GDP contracted 5.5 percent in IQ2020 and decreased 5.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy decreased 0.3 percent in IVQ2019 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2019 and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2019, Italy’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2019 and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2018, the GDP of Italy increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2018 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2018, the GDP of Italy increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IQ2018 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, the GDP of Italy increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2017 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2017, the GDP of Italy increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, the GDP of Italy increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2016, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2015, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IVQ2014 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.1 percent in IQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IVQ2013 and fell 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2013 and fell 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.9 percent in IQ2013 and declined 2.9 percent relative to IQ2012. GDP had been growing during six consecutive quarters but at very low rates from IQ2010 to IIQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell in seven consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at increasingly higher rates of contraction from 0.5 percent in IIIQ2011 to 0.9 percent in IVQ2011, 1.2 percent in IQ2012, 0.7 percent in IIQ2012 and 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012. The pace of decline accelerated to minus 0.8 percent in IVQ2012 and minus 0.9 percent in IQ2013. GDP contracted cumulatively 5.4 percent in seven consecutive quarterly contractions from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at the annual equivalent rate of minus 3.1 percent. The year-on-year rate has fallen from 2.1 percent in IVQ2010 to minus 3.2 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.9 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.2 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.5 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.9 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.4 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.4 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.3 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IIIQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.3 percent in IVQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.8 percent in IIQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IIIQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.9 percent in IVQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.4 percent in IQ2018 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.1 percent in IIQ2018 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2018 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2018 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2019 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2019 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIIQ2019 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2019 relative to a year earlier. GDP contracted 5.6 percent in IQ2020 relative to a year earlier, contracted 18.0 percent in IIQ2020 relative to a year earlier and contracted 5.0 percent in IIIQ2020 relative to a year earlier in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Istat updated the national accounts of Italy, using 2015 base, with the release of Oct 2, 2020 (https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/247904). Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/), the GDP of Italy (using the base of 2015) in IIIQ2020 of €410,569.3 million (https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/246771) is lower by 9.3 percent relative to €452,898.0 million in IQ2008 (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/). Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/), the GDP of Italy increased from €391,924.2 million in IQ1998 to €452,898.0 million in IQ2008 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.5 percent. The fiscal adjustment of Italy is significantly more difficult with the economy not growing especially on the prospects of increasing government revenue. The strategy is for reforms to improve productivity, facilitating future fiscal consolidation.
France. France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2012 and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IIQ2012 and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2012, France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IVQ2012 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2013 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2013 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2013 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2014, France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2015, France’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2015, the GDP of France increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of France decreased 0.2 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, the GDP of France increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2017, the GDP of France increased 0.7 percent and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIIQ2017 and increased 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, the GDP of France increased 0.8 percent and increased 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2018 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2018, the GDP of France increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2018 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2018, the GDP of France increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2019 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2019, the GDP of France increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2019 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2019, the GDP of France decreased 0.2 percent and increased 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP decreased 5.9 percent in IQ2020 and decreased 5.7 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2020, the GDP of France decreased 13.8 percent in IIQ2020 and decreased 18.9 percent relative to a year earlier. France’s GDP increased 18.7 percent in IIIQ2020 and decreased 3.9 percent relative to a year earlier.

Table V-3, Percentage Changes of GDP Quarter on Prior Quarter and on Same Quarter Year Earlier, ∆%

	IQ2012/IVQ2011	IQ2012/IQ2011
USA	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.2	2.7
Japan	QOQ: 1.4 SAAR: 5.7	3.0
China	1.9 AE 7.8	8.1
Euro Area	-0.2	-0.5
Germany	0.2	1.5 CA 1.0
France	0.1	0.7
Italy	-1.2	-2.4
United Kingdom	0.7	1.3
	IIQ2012/IQ2012	IIQ2012/IIQ2011
USA	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.7	2.4
Japan	QOQ: -0.9 SAAR: -3.6	2.8
China	2.1 AE 8.7	7.6
Euro Area	-0.3	-0.8
Germany	0.2	0.4 CA 0.9
France	-0.2	0.4
Italy	-0.7	-3.2
United Kingdom	-0.1	1.0
	IIIQ2012/ IIQ2012	IIIQ2012/ IIIQ2011
USA	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.5	2.5
Japan	QOQ: –0.4 SAAR: –1.5	-0.1
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.5
Euro Area	-0.1	-1.0
Germany	0.3	-0.1
France	0.2	0.4
Italy	-0.5	-3.3
United Kingdom	1.2	1.9
	IVQ2012/IIIQ2012	IVQ2012/IVQ2011
United States	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.5	1.5
Japan	QOQ: -0.1 SAAR: -0.3	-0.1
China	2.0 AE 8.2	8.1
Euro Area	-0.4	-1.0
Germany	-0.4	-0.1
France	-0.1	0.0
Italy	-0.8	-3.2
United Kingdom	-0.2	1.5
	IQ2013/IVQ2012	IQ2013/IQ2012
United States	QOQ: 0.9 SAAR: 3.6	1.6
Japan	QOQ: 1.4 SAAR: 5.6	0.0
China	1.9 AE 7.8	7.9
Euro Area	-0.4	-1.2
Germany	-0.5	-1.5
France	0.0	-0.1
Italy	-0.9	-2.9
UK	0.5	1.4
	IIQ2013/IQ2013	IIQ2013/IIQ2012
USA	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.5	1.3
Japan	QOQ: 0.9 SAAR: 3.6	1.8
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.6
Euro Area	0.5	-0.4
Germany	1.1	0.8
France	0.7	0.8
Italy	0.0	-2.2
UK	0.8	2.4
	IIIQ2013/IIQ2013	III/Q2013/IIIQ2012
USA	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.2	1.9
Japan	QOQ: 1.0 SAAR: 3.9	3.0
China	2.1 AE 8.7	7.9
Euro Area	0.3	0.1
Germany	0.5	1.2
France	0.0	0.6
Italy	0.2	-1.5
UK	0.9	2.1
	IVQ2013/IIIQ2013	IVQ2013/IVQ2012
USA	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.2	2.6
Japan	QOQ: -0.1 SAAR: -0.5	3.1
China	1.6 AE 6.6	7.7
Euro Area	0.3	0.7
Germany	0.3	1.2
France	0.5	1.2
Italy	-0.2	-0.9
UK	0.6	2.9
	IQ2014/IVQ2013	IQ2014/IQ2013
USA	QOQ -0.3 SAAR -1.1	1.4
Japan	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.3	2.9
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.5
Euro Area	0.4	1.6
Germany	1.0	3.2
France	0.1	1.3
Italy	0.1	0.1
UK	0.8	3.2
	IIQ2014/IQ2014	IIQ2014/IIQ2013
USA	QOQ 1.4 SAAR 5.5	2.7
Japan	QOQ: -1.8 SAAR: -7.1	-0.1
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.6
Euro Area	0.2	1.2
Germany	0.0	1.4
France	0.1	0.7
Italy	0.0	0.1
UK	0.7	3.0
	IIIQ2014/IIQ2014	IIIQ2014/IIIQ2013
USA	QOQ: 1.2 SAAR: 5.0	3.1
Japan	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.4	-1.1
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.2
Euro Area	0.4	1.4
Germany	0.5	1.8
France	0.4	1.1
Italy	0.1	0.0
UK	0.6	2.7
	IVQ2014/IIIQ2014	IVQ2014/IVQ2013
USA	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.3	2.9
Japan	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.0	-0.5
China	1.7 AE 7.0	7.3
Euro Area	0.4	1.5
Germany	0.8	2.4
France	0.1	0.8
Italy	-0.2	0.0
UK	0.6	2.6
	IQ2015/IVQ2014	IQ2015/IQ2014
USA	QOQ: 1.5 SAAR: 6.3	0.3
Japan	QOQ: 1.5 SAAR: 6.3	0.3
China	1.9 AE 7.8	7.1
Euro Area	0.7	1.8
Germany	-0.5	1.0
France	0.5	1.2
Italy	0.2	0.1
UK	0.5	2.4
	IIQ2015/IQ2015	IIQ2015/IIQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.7	3.5
Japan	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.4	2.4
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.1
Euro Area	0.4	2.0
Germany	0.7	1.5
France	0.0	1.0
Italy	0.4	0.5
UK	0.7	2.5
	IIIQ2015/IIQ2015	IIIQ2015/IIIQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.5	2.6
Japan	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.4	2.2
China	1.7 AE 7.0	7.0
Euro Area	0.4	2.0
Germany	0.4	1.5
France	0.4	1.0
Italy	0.2	0.6
UK	0.4	2.3
	IVQ2015/IIIQ2015	IVQ2015/IVQ2014
USA	QOQ: 0.2 SAAR: 0.6	2.2
Japan	QOQ: -0.1 SAAR: -0.4	1.5
China	1.6 AE 6.6	6.9
Euro Area	0.4	2.0
Germany	0.5	1.9
France	0.1	1.0
Italy	0.5	1.4
UK	0.7	2.4
	IQ2016/IVQ2015	IQ2016/IQ2015
USA	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.3	1.8
Japan	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.9	1.0
China	1.5 AE 6.1	6.9
Euro Area	0.6	1.9
Germany	0.9	2.2
France	0.7	1.1
Italy	0.3	1.4
UK	0.2	2.0
	IIQ2016/IQ2016	IIQ2016/IIQ2015
USA	QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.3	1.4
Japan	QOQ: -0.2 SAAR: -0.8	0.5
China	1.8 AE 7.4	6.8
Euro Area	0.3	1.7
Germany	0.4	3.6
France	-0.2	0.9
Italy	0.2	1.3
UK	0.5	1.7
	IIIQ2016/IIQ2016	IIIQ2016/IIIQ2015
USA	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.2	1.6
Japan	QOQ: 0.2 SAAR: 0.8	0.5
China	1.7 AE 7.0	6.8
Euro Area	0.4	1.7
Germany	0.2	1.9
France	0.2	0.8
Italy	0.5	1.6
UK	0.3	1.6
	IVQ2016/IIIQ2016	IVQ2016/IVQ2015
USA	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.5	2.1
Japan	QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.2	1.0
China	1.6 AE 6.6	6.9
Euro Area	0.8	2.0
Germany	0.4	1.4
France	0.6	1.3
Italy	0.3	1.3
UK	0.6	1.6
	IQ2017/IVQ2016	IQ2017/IQ2016
USA	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.3	2.1
Japan	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 3.0	1.0
China	1.7 AE 7.0	7.0
Euro Area	0.7	2.2
Germany	1.2	3.6
France	0.8	1.4
Italy	0.5	1.6
UK	0.5	1.9
	IIQ2017/IQ2017	IIQ2017/IIQ2016
USA	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.7	2.2
Japan	QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.0	1.4
China	1.8 AE 7.4	7.0
Euro Area	0.7	2.7
Germany	0.7	1.2 CA 2.5
France	0.7	2.4
Italy	0.4	1.8
UK	0.3	1.7
	IIIQ2017/IIQ2017	IIIQ2017/IIIQ2016
USA	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.9	2.4
Japan	QOQ: 0.8 SAAR: 3.2	2.1
China	1.6 AE 6.6	6.9
Euro Area	0.8	3.0
Germany	0.9	2.7 CA 3.1
France	0.7	2.8
Italy	0.4	1.6
UK	0.4	1.8
	IVQ2017/IIIQ2017	IVQ2017/IVQ2016
USA	QOQ: 1.0 SAAR: 3.9	2.7
Japan	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.6	2.2
China	1.6 AE 6.6	6.8
Euro Area	0.8	3.1
Germany	0.8	3.0 CA 3.6
France	0.8	3.1
Italy	0.6	1.9
UK	0.4	1.6
	IQ2018/IVQ2017	IQ2018/IQ2017
USA	QOQ: 0.9 SAAR: 3.8	3.1
Japan	QOQ: 0.0 SAAR: -0.1	1.4
China	1.9 AE 7.8	6.9
Euro Area	0.2	2.5
Germany	-0.2	1.5 CA 2.2
France	0.1	2.4
Italy	0.0	1.4
UK	0.1	1.1
	IIQ2018/IQ2018	IIQ2018/IIQ2017
USA	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.7	3.3
Japan	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.2	1.2
China	1.7 AE 7.0	6.9
Euro Area	0.4	2.3
Germany	0.5	2.4 CA 2.0
France	0.2	1.9
Italy	0.1	1.1
UK	0.4	1.2
	IIIQ2018/IIQ2018	IIIQ2018/IIIQ2017
USA	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 2.1	3.1
Japan	QOQ -0.7 SAAR: -2.6	-0.2
China	1.3 AE 5.3	6.7
Euro Area	0.1	1.6
Germany	-0.3	0.7 CA 0.7
France	0.4	1.6
Italy	-0.1	0.6
UK	0.6	1.4
	IVQ2018/IIIQ2018	IVQ2018/IVQ2017
USA	QOQ: 0.3 SAAR: 1.3	2.5
Japan	QOQ: 0.5 SAAR: 1.8	-0.2
China	1.5 AE 6.1	6.5
Euro Area	0.5	1.2
Germany	0.3	0.5 CA 0.3
France	0.6	1.4
Italy	0.1	0.2
UK	0.2	1.2
	IQ2019/IV2018	IQ2019/IQ2018
USA	QOQ: 0.7 SAAR: 2.9	2.3
Japan	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.3	0.3
China	1.9 AE 7.8	6.4
Euro Area	0.5	1.5
Germany	0.6	1.0 CA 1.1
France	0.5	1.8
Italy	0.2	0.3
UK	0.6	1.7
	IIQ2019/IQ2019	IIQ2019/IIQ2018
USA	QOQ: 0.4 SAAR: 1.5	2.0
Japan	QOQ: 0.1 SAAR: 0.3	0.6
China	1.3 AE 5.3	6.2
Euro Area	0.2	1.3
Germany	-0.5	-0.3 CA 0.1
France	0.3	1.8
Italy	0.2	0.4
UK	0.1	1.5
	IIIQ2019/IIQ2019	IIIQ2019/IIIQ2018
USA	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR 2.6	2.1
Japan	QOQ: 0.2 SAAR: 0.7	1.3
China	1.0 AE 4.1	6.0
Euro Area	0.2	1.4
Germany	0.3	1.2 CA 0.7
France	0.1	1.6
Italy	0.0	0.5
UK	0.5	1.4
	IVQ2019/IIIQ2019	IVQ2019/IVQ2018
USA	QOQ: 0.6 SAAR: 2.4	2.3
Japan	QOQ: -1.9 SAAR: -7.2	-1.1
China	1.6 AE 6.6	6.0
Euro Area	0.1	1.0
Germany	0.0	0.2 CA 0.4
France	-0.2	0.8
Italy	-0.3	0.1
UK	0.0	1.2
	IQ2020/IVQ2019	IQ2020/IQ2019
USA	QOQ: -1.3 SAAR: -5.0	0.3
Japan	QOQ: -0.5 SAAR: -2.1	-2.0
China	-10.0 (-65.6)	-6.8
Euro Area	-3.7	-3.2
Germany	-1.9	-1.7 CA -2.1
France	-5.9	-5.7
Italy	-5.5	-5.6
UK	-3.0	-2.4
	IIQ2020/IQ2020	IIQ2020/IIQ2019
USA	QOQ: -9.1 SAAR: -31.7	-9.1
Japan	QOQ: -8.3 SAAR: -29.2	-10.3
China	11.7 (55.7)	3.2
Euro Area	-11.7	-14.7
Germany	-9.8	-11.3 CA -11.3
France	-13.8	-18.9
Italy	-13.0	-18.0
UK	-18.8	-20.8
	IIIQ2020/IIQ2020	IIIQ2020/IIIQ2019
USA	QOQ: 7.5 SAAR: 33.4	-2.8
Japan	QOQ: 5.3 SAAR: 22.9	-5.7
China	2.7 (11.2)	4.9
Euro Area	12.5	-4.3
Germany	8.5	-3.9 CA -4.0
France	18.7	-3.9
Italy	15.9	-5.0
UK	16.0	-8.6

QOQ: Quarter relative to prior quarter; SAAR: seasonally adjusted annual rate

Source: Country Statistical Agencies http://www.bls.gov/bls/other.htm https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/related-sites.html

Table V-4 provides two types of data: growth of exports and imports in the latest available months and in the past 12 months; and contributions of net trade (exports less imports) to growth of real GDP.

Japan. Japan provides the most worrisome data (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/global-decline-of-values-of-financial.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/07/valuation-of-risk-financial-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/fluctuating-financial-asset-valuations.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/dollar-revaluation-squeezing-corporate.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/04/imf-view-of-economy-and-finance-united.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/impatience-with-monetary-policy-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/world-financial-turbulence-squeeze-of.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/financial-and-international.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/patience-on-interest-rate-increases.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/monetary-policy-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/valuation-risks-world-inflation-waves.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/interest-rate-risks-world-inflation.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/global-financial-risk-world-inflation.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations_8763.html http://cmpass ocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/paring-quantitative-easing-policy-and_4699.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html and earlier at http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/thirty-one-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/12/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_24.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2012/11/contraction-of-united-states-real_25.html and for GDP http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/interest-rate-policy-dependent-on-what_13.html). In Nov 2020, Japan’s exports decreased 4.2 percent in 12 months while imports decreased 11.1 percent. The second part of Table V-4 shows that net trade added 0.7 percent in IQ2012, deducting 1.9 percent in IIQ2012. Net trade deducted 1.9 percent in IIIQ2012. Net traded deducted 0.3 percent in IVQ2012. Net trade added 1.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2013 but deducted 0.1 percentage points in IIQ2013, deducting 1.3 percentage points in IIIQ2013 and 2.1 percentage points in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 1.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2014. Net trade added 4.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2014 and deducted 0.3 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 1.8 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2014. Net trade contributed 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2015 and deducted 0.7-percentage points in IIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.5 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015 and added 1.4 percentage points in IQ2016. Net trade contributed 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade added 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2016 and contributed 1.1 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade contributed 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017 and deducted 0.8 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade contributed 1.9 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017 and deducted 0.1 percentage-point in IVQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018 and contributed 0.1 percentage points in IIQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.8 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018 and deducted 1.6 percentage points in IVQ2018. Net trade contributed 1.8 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2019 with export contraction deducting 1.2 percent and import contraction contributing 3.0 percent. Net trade deducted 1.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2019. Net trade deducted 1.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade contributed 2.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 1.5 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2020 with export contraction deducting 3.7 percentage points and import contraction adding 2.2 percentage points. Net trade deducted 11.0 percentage points in IIQ2020 with export contraction deducting 10.2 percentage points and import contraction deducting 0.8 percentage points. Net trade contributed 11.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2020 with export growth contributing 4.5 percentage points and import contraction contribution 7.0 percentage points.
China. The exports of China increased 21.1 percent in Nov 2020 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 4.5 percent.

Germany. Germany’s exports increased 0.8 percent in the month of Oct 2020 and decreased 6.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2020. Germany’s imports increased 0.3 percent in the month of Oct 2020 and decreased 5.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2020. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to growth of GDP in IQ2012, contributed 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2012, contributed 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2012, deducted 0.5 percentage points in IVQ2012, deducted 0.3 percentage points in IQ2013 and deducted 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded deducted 0.0 percentage points from Germany’s GDP growth in IIIQ2013 and added 0.9 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2014 and added 0.7 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points in IVQ2015 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade added 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2017. Net trade added 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018 and deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2019. Net traded added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.8 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2020. Net trade deducted 2.9 percentage points in IIQ2020. Net trade added 3.9 percentage points in IIIQ2020.
United Kingdom. Net trade contributed 0.7 percentage points in IIQ2013. In IIIQ2013, net trade deducted 1.7 percentage points from UK growth. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to UK value added in IVQ2013. Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to UK value added in IQ2014 and 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2014 and added 0.0 percentage points in IVQ2014. Net traded deducted 0.4 percentage points from growth in IQ2015. Net trade added 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.4 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.1-percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 1.8 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade added 1.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2016. Net trade added 0.33 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017 and contributed 0.01 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.11 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.28 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade added 0.42 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.48 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.45 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.29 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2018. Net trade deducted 2.12 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2019. Net trade contributed 2.81 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2019. Net trade contributed 1.12 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade contributed 2.21 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 2.09 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2020. Net trade contributed 3.66 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2020. Net trade deducted 3.51 percentage points from GDP in IIIQ2020.
France. France’s exports increased 3.3 percent in Oct 2020 while imports increased 1.2 percent. France’s exports decreased 9.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2020 and imports decreased 7.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Net traded added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IIIQ2012 and 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IQ2013 and added 0.3 percentage points in IIQ2013, deducting 1.7 percentage points in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 0.1 percentage points to France’s GDP in IVQ2013 and deducted 0.1 percentage points in IQ2014. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from France’s GDP growth in IIQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IIIQ2014. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to France’s GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 0.2 percentage points in IQ2015. Net trade added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015 and deducted 0.6 percentage points in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015 and deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.3 percentage points to GDP in IIQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP in IIIQ2016 and added 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2016. Net trade deducted 0.6 percentage points from GDP in IQ2017 and added 0.9 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade added 0.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade added 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net trade added 0.2 percentage points to GDP in IVQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP in IQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ219. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade contributed 0.0 percentage points to GDP growth in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points in IQ2020. Net trade deducted 2.3 percentage points in IIQ2020. Net trade contributed 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2020.
United States. US exports increased 2.2 percent in Oct 2020 and goods exports decreased 14.5 percent in Jan-Oct 2020 relative to a year earlier. Imports increased 2.1 percent in Oct 2020 and goods imports decreased 8.9 percent in Jan-Oct 2020 relative to a year earlier. Net trade added 0.27 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2012 and deducted 0.08 percentage points in IIIQ2012, adding 0.57 percentage points in IVQ2012. Net trade added 0.40 percentage points to US GDP growth in IQ2013 and deducted 0.33 percentage points in IIQ2013. Net traded subtracted 0.14 percentage points from US GDP growth in IIIQ2013. Net trade added 1.23 percentage points to US GDP growth in IVQ2013. Net trade deducted 1.11 percentage points from US GDP growth in IQ2014 and deducted 0.46 percentage points in IIQ2014. Net trade added 0.10 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2014. Net trade deducted 1.05 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2014 and deducted 1.38 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.25 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.97 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.22 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2015. Net trade deducted 0.05 percentage points from GDP growth in IQ2016. Net trade added 0.22 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2016. Net trade added 0.08 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2016. Net trade deducted 1.13 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2016. Net trade added 0.36 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.39 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2017. Net trade added 0.08 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2017. Net trade deducted 0.49 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2017. Net trade added 0.29 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018. Net trade added 0.25 percentage points to GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.83 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018, deducting 0.27 percentage points in IVQ2018. Net trade added 0.55 percentage points in IQ2019, deducting 0.79 percentage points in IIQ2019. Net trade added 0.04 percentage points in IIIQ2019. Net trade added 1.52 percentage points in IVQ2019, adding 1.13 percentage points in IQ2020. Net trade added 0.62 percentage points in IIQ2020, deducting 3.21 percentage points in IIIQ2020.

Industrial production increased 0.4 percent in Nov 2020 and increased 0.9 percent in Oct 2020 after decreasing 0.1 percent in Sep 2020, with all data seasonally adjusted, as shown in Table I-1. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System conducted the annual revision of industrial production released on Mar 27, 2019 (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/revisions/Current/DefaultRev.htm):

“The Federal Reserve has revised its index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization.[1] On net, the revisions to the growth rates for total IP for recent years were small and positive, with the estimates for 2016 and 2017 a bit higher and the estimates for 2015 and 2018 slightly lower.[2] Total IP is still reported to have increased from the end of the recession in mid-2009 through late 2014 before declining in 2015 and rebounding in mid-2016. Subsequently, the index advanced around 7 1/2 percent over 2017 and 2018.

Capacity for total industry expanded modestly in each year from 2015 to 2017 before advancing 1 1/2 percent in 2018; it is expected to advance about 2 percent in 2019. Revisions for recent years were very small and showed slightly less expansion in most years relative to earlier reports.

In the fourth quarter of 2018, capacity utilization for total industry stood at 79.4 percent, about 3/4 percentage point above its previous estimate and about 1/2 percentage point below its long-run (1972–2018) average. The utilization rate in 2017 is also higher than its previous estimate.”

The report of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System states (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/default.htm):

“Industrial production increased 0.4 percent in November. After having fallen 16.5 percent between February and April, the level of the index has risen to about 5 percent below its pre-pandemic (February) reading. In November, manufacturing output advanced 0.8 percent for its seventh consecutive monthly gain. An increase of 5.3 percent for motor vehicles and parts contributed significantly to the gain in factory production; excluding motor vehicles and parts, manufacturing output moved up 0.4 percent. The output of utilities declined 4.3 percent, as warmer-than-usual temperatures reduced the demand for heating. Mining production increased 2.3 percent after decreasing 0.7 percent in October. At 104.0 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 5.5 percent lower in November than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 0.3 percentage point in November to 73.3 percent, a rate that is 6.5 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2019) average but 9.1 percentage points above its low in April.” In the six months ending in Nov 2020, United States national industrial production accumulated change of 12.9 percent at the annual equivalent rate of 27.4 percent, which is higher than growth of minus 5.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2020. Excluding decline of 0.1 percent in Sep 2020, growth in the remaining five months from Jun 2019 to Nov 2020 accumulated to 13.0 percent or 34.1 percent annual equivalent. Industrial production increased 6.2 percent in one of the past six months, 4.2 percent in one month, 0.9 percent in one month, 0.8 percent in one month, 0.4 percent in one month, and minus 0.1 percent in one month. Industrial production increased at annual equivalent 4.9 percent in the most recent quarter from Sep 2020 to Nov 2020 and increased at 54.8 percent annual equivalent in the prior quarter from Jun 2020 to Aug 2020. Business equipment accumulated change of 25.6 percent in the six months from Jun 2020 to Nov 2020, at the annual equivalent rate of 57.8 percent, which is higher than growth of minus 8.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2020. The Fed analyzes capacity utilization of total industry in its report (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm): ” Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 0.3 percentage point in November to 73.3 percent, a rate that is 6.5 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2019) average but 9.1 percentage points above its low in April.” United States industry apparently decelerated to a lower growth rate followed by possible acceleration, weakening growth in past months and deep contraction in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. There is recent recovery.

Manufacturing decreased 22.3 percent from the peak in Jun 2007 to the trough in Apr 2009 and increased 18.3 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Dec 2019. Manufacturing increased 15.2 percent from the trough in Apr 2009 to Nov 2020. Manufacturing in Nov 2020 is lower by 10.4 percent relative to the peak in Jun 2007. US economic growth has been at only 1.8 percent on average in the cyclical expansion in the 45 quarters from IIIQ2009 to IIIQ2020 and in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Boskin (2010Sep) measures that the US economy grew at 6.2 percent in the first four quarters and 4.5 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the second quarter of 1975; and at 7.7 percent in the first four quarters and 5.8 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the first quarter of 1983 (Professor Michael J. Boskin, Summer of Discontent, Wall Street Journal, Sep 2, 2010 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882304575465462926649950.html). There are new calculations using the revision of US GDP and personal income data since 1929 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (http://bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) and the third estimate of GDP for IIIQ2020 (https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2020-12/gdp3q20_3rd.pdf). The average of 7.7 percent in the first four quarters of major cyclical expansions is in contrast with the rate of growth in the first four quarters of the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010 of only 2.8 percent obtained by dividing GDP of $15,557.3 billion in IIQ2010 by GDP of $15,134.1 billion in IIQ2009 {[($15,557.3/$15,134.1) -1]100 = 2.8%], or accumulating the quarter on quarter growth rates (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/12/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-334-percent-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/11/dollar-devaluation-increasing.html). The expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1986 was at the average annual growth rate of 5.7 percent, 5.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1986, 5.1 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1986, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1989, 4.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1989, 4.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1989, 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1989. 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1990, 4.4 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1990, 4.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1990, 4.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1990, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1991, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1991, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1992, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1992, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1993, 3.6 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1993, 3.7 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1994 and at 7.9 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/12/us-gdp-growing-at-saar-334-percent-in.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/11/dollar-devaluation-increasing.html). The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dates a contraction of the US from IQ1990 (Jul) to IQ1991 (Mar) (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html). The expansion lasted until another contraction beginning in IQ2001 (Mar). US GDP contracted 1.3 percent from the pre-recession peak of $8983.9 billion of chained 2009 dollars in IIIQ1990 to the trough of $8865.6 billion in IQ1991 (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IIIQ2020 and in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event would have accumulated to 45.8 percent. GDP in IIIQ2020 would be $22,981.0 billion (in constant dollars of 2012) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $4384.5 billion than actual $18,596.5 billion. There are more than four trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 31.2 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 18.0 percent of the effective labor force with the largest part originating in the global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/12/dollar-devaluation-increasing.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/11/increase-in-oct-2020-of-nonfarm-payroll.html). Unemployment is decreasing while employment is increasing in initial adjustment of the lockdown of economic activity in the global recession resulting from the COVID-19 event (https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-november-2020.htm). US GDP in IIIQ2020 is 19.1 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $15,762.0 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $18,596.5 billion in IIIQ2020 or 18.0 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.3 percent. Professor John H. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. Cochrane (2016May02) measures GDP growth in the US at average 3.5 percent per year from 1950 to 2000 and only at 1.76 percent per year from 2000 to 2015 with only at 2.0 percent annual equivalent in the current expansion. Cochrane (2016May02) proposes drastic changes in regulation and legal obstacles to private economic activity. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 2.9 percent per year from Nov 1919 to Nov 2020. Growth at 2.9 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 156.6710 in Nov 2020. The actual index NSA in Nov 2020 is 100.6075 which is 35.8 percent below trend. The underperformance of manufacturing in Mar-Aug 2020 originates partly in the earlier global recession augmented by the current global recession with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19. Manufacturing grew at the average annual rate of 3.3 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2006. Growth at 3.3 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output (SIC, Standard Industrial Classification) from 108.2987 in Dec 2007 to 164.7223 in Nov 2020. The actual index NSA in Nov 2020 is 100.6075, which is 38.9 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 1.8 percent between Dec 1986 and Nov 2020. Using trend growth of 1.8 percent per year, the index would increase to 136.3637 in Nov 2020. The output of manufacturing at 100.6075 in Nov 2020 is 26.2 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Using the NAICS (North American Industry Classification System), manufacturing output fell from the high of 110.5147 in Jun 2007 to the low of 86.3800 in Apr 2009 or 21.8 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased from 86.3800 in Apr 2009 to 101.9023 in Nov 2020 or 18.0 percent. The NAICS manufacturing index increased at the annual equivalent rate of 3.5 percent from Dec 1986 to Dec 2006. Growth at 3.5 percent would increase the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 166.3617 in Nov 2020. The NAICS index at 101.9023 in Nov 2020 is 38.7 below trend. The NAICS manufacturing output index grew at 1.7 percent annual equivalent from Dec 1999 to Dec 2006. Growth at 1.7 percent would raise the NAICS manufacturing output index from 106.6777 in Dec 2007 to 132.6282 in Nov 2020. The NAICS index at 101.9023 in Nov 2020 is 23.2 percent below trend under this alternative calculation. Table I-13 provides national income by industry without capital consumption adjustment (WCCA). “Private industries” or economic activities have share of 86.9 percent in IIIQ2020. Most of US national income is in the form of services. In Nov 2020, there were 144.005 million nonfarm jobs NSA in the US, according to estimates of the establishment survey of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm Table B-1). Total private jobs of 122.071 million NSA in Nov 2020 accounted for 84.8 percent of total nonfarm jobs of 144.005 million, of which 12.257 million, or 10.0 percent of total private jobs and 8.5 percent of total nonfarm jobs, were in manufacturing. Private service-providing jobs were 101.756 million NSA in Nov 2020, or 70.7 percent of total nonfarm jobs and 83.3 percent of total private-sector jobs. Manufacturing has share of 9.2 percent in US national income in IIIQ2020 and durable goods 5.6 percent, as shown in Table I-13. Most income in the US originates in services. Subsidies and similar measures designed to increase manufacturing jobs will not increase economic growth and employment and may actually reduce growth by diverting resources away from currently employment-creating activities because of the drain of taxation.

Table V-4, Growth of Trade and Contributions of Net Trade to GDP Growth, ∆% and % Points

	Exports M ∆%	Exports 12 M ∆%	Imports M ∆%	Imports 12 M ∆%
USA	2.2 Oct SA	-14.5 Jan-Oct NSA	2.1 Oct SA	-8.9 Jan-Oct NSA
Japan		Nov 2020 -4.2 Oct 2020 -0.2 Sep 2020 -4.9 Aug 2020 -14.8 Jul 2020 -19.2 Jun 2020 -26.2 May 2020 -28.3 Apr 2020 -21.9 Mar 2020 -11.7 Feb 2020 -1.0 Jan 2020 -2.6 Dec 2019 -6.3 Nov 2019 -7.9 Oct 2019 -9.2 Sep 2019 -5.2 Aug 2019 -8.2 Jul 2019 -1.6 Jun 2019 -6.7 May 2019 -7.8 Apr 2019 -2.4 Mar 2019 -2.4 Feb 2019 -1.2 Jan 2019 -8.4 Dec 2018 -3.8 Nov 2018 0.1 Oct 2018 8.2 Sep 2018 -1.2 Aug 2018 6.6 Jul 2018 3.9 Jun 2018 6.7 May 2018 8.1 Apr 2018 7.8 Mar 2018 2.1 Feb 2018 1.8 Jan 2018 12.2 Dec 2017 9.3 Nov 2017 16.2 Oct 2017 14.0 Sep 2017 14.1 Aug 2017 18.1 Jul 2017 13.4 Jun 2017 9.7 May 2017 14.9 Apr 2017 7.5 Mar 2017 12.0 Feb 2017 11.3 Jan 2017 1.3 Dec 2016 5.4 Nov 2016 -0.4 Oct 2016 -10.3 Sep 2016 -6.9 Aug 2016 9.6 Jul 2016 -14.0 Jun 2016 -7.8 May 2016 -11.3 Apr 2016 -10.1 Mar 2016 -6.8 Feb 2016 -4.0 Jan 2016 -12.9 Dec 2015 -8.0 Nov 2015 -3.3 Oct 2015 -2.1 Sep 2015 0.6 Aug 3.1 Jul 2015 7.6 Jun 2015 9.5 May 2015 2.4 Apr 8.0 Mar 8.5 Feb 2.4 Jan 17.0 Dec 12.9 Nov 4.9 Oct 9.6 Sep 6.9 Aug -1.3 Jul 3.9 Jun -2.0 May 2014 -2.7 Apr 2014 5.1 Mar 2014 1.8 Feb 2014 9.5 Jan 2014 9.5 Dec 2013 15.3 Nov 2013 18.4 Oct 2013 18.6 Sep 2013 11.5 Aug 2013 14.7 Jul 2013 12.2 Jun 2013 7.4 May 2013 10.1 Apr 2013 3.8 Mar 2013 1.1 Feb 2013 -2.9 Jan 2013 6.4 Dec -5.8 Nov -4.1 Oct -6.5 Sep -10.3 Aug -5.8 Jul -8.1		Nov 2020 -11.1 Oct 2020 -13.3 Sep 2020 -17.2 Aug 2020 -20.8 Jul 2020 -22.3 Jun 2020 -14.4 May 2020 -26.2 Apr 2020 -7.2 Mar 2020 -5.0 Feb 2020 -14.0 Jan 2020 -3.6 Dec 2019 -4.9 Nov 2019 -15.7 Oct 2019 -14.8 Sep 2019 -1.5 Aug 2019 -12.0 Jul 2019 -1.2 Jun 2019 -5.2 May 2019 -1.5 Apr 2019 6.4 Mar 2019 1.1 Feb 2019 -6.7 Jan 2019 -0.6 Dec 2018 1.9 Nov 2018 12.5 Oct 2018 19.9 Sep 2018 7.0 Aug 2018 15.4 Jul 2018 14.6 Jun 2018 2.5 May 2018 14.0 Apr 2018 5.9 Mar 2018 -0.6 Feb 2018 16.6 Jan 2018 7.9 Dec 2017 14.9 Nov 2017 17.2 Oct 2017 18.9 Sep 2017 12.0 Aug 2017 15.2 Jul 2017 16.3 Jun 2017 15.5 May 2017 17.8 Apr 2017 15.1 Mar 2017 15.8 Feb 2017 1.2 Jan 2017 8.5 Dec 2016 -2.6 Nov 2016 -8.8 Oct 2016 -16.5 Sep 2016 -16.3 Aug 2016 -17.3 Jul 2016 -24.7 Jun 2016 -18.8 May 2016 -13.8 Apr 2016 -23.3 Mar 2016 -14.9 Feb 2016 -14.2 Jan 2016 -18.0 Dec 2015 -18.0 Nov 2015 -10.2 Oct 2015 -13.4 Sep 2015 -11.1 Aug -3.1 Jul 2015 -3.2 Jun 2015 -2.9 May 2015 -8.7 Apr -4.2 Mar -14.5 Feb -3.6 Jan -9.0 Dec 1.9 Nov -1.7 Oct 2.7 Sep 6.2 Aug -1.5 Jul 2.3 Jun 8.4 May 2014 -3.6 Apr 2013 3.4 Mar 2014 18.1 Feb 2014 9.0 Jan 2014 25.0 Dec 2013 24.7 Nov 2013 21.1 Oct 2013 26.1 Sep 2013 16.5 Aug 2013 16.0 Jul 2013 19.6 Jun 2013 11.8 May 2013 10.0 Apr 2013 9.4 Mar 2013 5.5 Feb 2013 7.3 Jan 2013 7.3 Dec 1.9 Nov 0.8 Oct -1.6 Sep 4.1 Aug -5.4 Jul 2.1
China	Jan-Dec 0.5 Jan-Dec 9.9 Jan-Dec 2017 7.9 Jan-Dec 2016 -7.7 Jan-Dec 2015 -2.8	2020 Nov 21.1 Oct 11.4 Sep 9.9 Aug 9.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 0.5 May -3.3 Apr 8.2 Mar -2.9 Jan-Feb -17.2 2019 Dec 7.6 Nov -1.1 Oct -0.9 Sep -3.2 Aug -1.0 Jul 3.3 Jun -1.3 May 1.1 Apr -2.7 Mar 14.2 Feb -20.7 Jan 9.3 2018 Dec -4.4 Nov 5.4 Oct 15.6 Sep 14.5 Aug 9.8 Jul 12.2 Jun 11.3 May 12.6 Apr 12.9 Mar -2.7 Feb 44.5 Jan 11.1 2017 Dec 10.9 Nov 12.3 Oct 6.9 Sep 8.1 Aug 5.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 11.3 May 8.7 Apr 8.0 Mar 16.4 Feb -1.3 Jan 7.9 2016 Dec 3.1 Nov 0.1 Oct -7.3 Sep -10.0 Aug -2.8 Jul -4.4 Jun -4.8 May -4.1 Apr -1.8 Mar 11.5 Feb -25.4 Jan -11.2 2015 -1.4 Dec -6.8 Nov -6.9 Oct -3.7 Sep -5.5 Aug -8.3 Jul 2.8 Jun -2.5 May -6.4 Apr -15.0 Mar 48.3 Feb -3.3 Jan 2014 9.7 Dec 4.7 Nov 11.6 Oct 15.3 Sep 9.4 Aug 14.5 Jul 7.2 Jun 7.0 May 0.9 Apr -6.6 Mar -18.1 Feb 10.6 Jan 2013 4.3 Dec 12.7 Nov 5.6 Oct -0.3 Sep 7.2 Aug 5.1 Jul -3.1 Jun 1.0 May 14.7 Apr 10.0 Mar 21.8 Feb 25.0 Jan	Jan-Dec -2.8 Jan-Dec 15.8 Jan-Dec 2017 15.9 Jan-Dec 2016 -5.5 Jan-Dec 2015 -14.1	2020 Nov 4.5 Oct 4.7 Sep 13.2 Aug -2.1 Jul 1.4 Jun 2.7 May -16.7 Apr -10.2 Mar -1.1 Jan-Feb -4.0 2019 Dec 16.3 Nov 0.3 Oct -6.4 Sep -8.5 Aug -5.6 Jul -5.3 Jun -7.3 May -8.5 Apr 4.0 Mar -7.6 Feb -5.2 Jan -1.5 2018 Dec -7.6 Nov 3.0 Oct 21.4 Sep 14.3 Aug 20.0 Jul 27.3 Jun 14.1 May 26.0 Apr 21.5 Mar 14.4 Feb 6.3 Jan 36.9 2017 Dec 4.5 Nov 17.7 Oct 17.2 Sep 18.7 Aug 13.3 Jul 11.0 Jun 17.2 May 14.8 Apr 11.9 Mar 20.3 Feb 38.1 Jan 16.7 2016 Dec -7.7 Nov 6.7 Oct -1.4 Sep -1.9 Aug 1.5 Jul -12.5 Jun -2.8 May -0.4 Apr -10.6 Mar -7.6 Feb -13.8 Jan -18.8 2015 -7.6 Dec -8.7 Nov -18.8 Oct -20.4 Sep -13.8 Aug -8.1 Jul -6.1 Jun -17.6 May -12.7 Mar -20.5 Feb -19.9 Jan 2014 -2.4 Dec -6.7 Nov 4.6 Oct 7.0 Sep -2.4 Aug -1.6 Jul 5.5 Jun -1.6 May -0.8 Apr -11.3 Mar 10.1 Feb 10.0 Jan 2013 8.3 Dec 5.3 Nov 7.6 Oct 7.4 Sep 7.0 Aug 10.9 Jul -0.7 Jun -0.3 May 16.8 Apr 14.1 Mar -15.2 Feb 28.8 Jan
Euro Area	-9.0 12-M Oct 2020	-11.1 Jan-Oct 2020	-11.7 12-M Oct 2020	-12.4 Jan- Oct 2020
Germany	0.8 Oct CSA	-6.5 Oct	0.3 Oct CSA	-5.9 Oct
France Oct	3.3	-9.7	1.2	-7.9
Italy Oct	-1.3	-8.4	1.4	-8.2
UK	-3.6 Oct	-9.6	1.2 Oct	-19.1
Net Trade % Points GDP Growth	Points
USA	IIIQ2020 -3.21 IIQ2020 0.62 IQ2020 1.13 IVQ2019 1.52 IIIQ2019 0.04 IIQ2019 -0.79 IQ2019 0.55 IVQ 2018 -0.27 IIIQ2018 -1.83 IIQ2018 0.25 IQ2018 0.29 IVQ2017 -0.49 IIIQ2017 0.08 IIQ2017 -0.39 IQ2017 0.36 IVQ2016 -1.13 IIIQ2016 0.08 IIQ2016 0.22 IQ2016 -0.05 IVQ2015 -0.22 IIIQ2015 -0.97 IIQ2015 -0.25 IQ2015 -1.38 IVQ2014 -1.05 IIIQ2014 0.10 IIQ2014 -0.46 IQ2014 -1.11 IVQ2013 1.23 IIIQ2013 -0.14 IIQ2013 -0.33 IQ2013 0.40 IVQ2012 +0.57 IIIQ2012 -0.08 IIQ2012 0.27 IQ2012 0.00
Japan	0.7 IQ2012 -1.9 IIQ2012 -1.9 IIIQ2012 -0.3 IVQ2012 1.4 IQ2013 -0.1 IIQ2013 -1.3 IIIQ2013 -2.1 IVQ2013 -1.0 IQ2014 4.2 IIQ2014 -0.3 IIIQ2014 1.8 IVQ2014 0.4 IQ2015 -0.7 IIQ2015 -0.5 IIIQ2015 -0.1 IVQ2015 1.4 IQ2016 0.3 IIQ2016 1.1 IIIQ2016 1.1 IVQ2016 0.6 IQ2017 -0.8 IIQ2017 1.9 IIIQ2017 -0.1 IVQ2017 0.2 IQ2018 0.1 IIQ2018 -0.8 IIIQ2018 -1.6 IVQ2018 1.8 IQ2019 -1.3 IIQ2019 -1.1 IIIQ2019 2.5 IVQ2019 -1.5 IQ2020 -11.0 IIQ2020 11.5 IIIQ2020
Germany	IQ2012 0.8 IIQ2012 0.3 IIIQ2012 0.4 IVQ2012 -0.5 IQ2013 -0.3 IIQ2013 -0.3 IIIQ2013 0.0 IVQ2013 0.9 IQ2014 -0.1 IIQ2014 -0.3 IIIQ2014 0.7 IVQ2014 0.1 IQ2015 -0.4 IIQ2015 0.6 IIIQ2015 -0.4 IVQ2015 -0.6 IQ2016 -0.4 IIQ2016 0.7 IIIQ2016 -0.2 IVQ2016 -0.7 IQ2017 0.7 IIQ2017 -0.2 IIIQ2017 0.5 IVQ2017 0.1 IQ2018 0.1 IIQ2018 -0.2 IIIQ2018 -1.0 IVQ2018 -0.2 IQ2019 0.3 IIQ2019 -0.6 IIIQ2019 0.6 IVQ2019 -0.3 IQ2020 -0.8 IIQ2020 -2.9 IIIQ2020 3.9
France	0.1 IIIQ2012 0.1 IVQ2012 -0.1 IQ2013 0.3 IIQ2013 -1.7 IIIQ2013 0.1 IVQ2013 -0.1 IQ2014 -0.2 IIQ2014 -0.2 IIIQ2014 0.2 IVQ2014 -0.2 IQ2015 0.4 IIQ2015 -0.6 IIIQ2015 -0.7 IVQ2015 -0.1 IQ2016 0.3 IIQ2016 -0.6 IIIQ2016 0.1 IVQ2016 -0.6 IQ2017 0.9 IIQ2017 -0.3 IIIQ2017 0.6 IVQ2017 0.0 IQ2018 0.0 IIQ2018 0.3 IIIQ2018 0.2 IVQ2018 -0.3 IQ2019 -0.1 IIQ2019 -0.3 IIIQ2019 0.0 IVQ2019 -0.2 IQ2020 -2.3 IIQ2020 0.7 IIIQ2020
UK	0.7 IIQ2013 -1.7 IIIQ2013 0.1 IVQ2013 0.8 IQ2014 0.3 IIQ2014 -0.7 IIIQ2014 0.0 IVQ2014 -0.4 IQ2015 1.1 IIQ2015 -0.4 IIIQ2015 -0.2 IVQ2015 -0.1 IQ2016 0.1 IIQ2016 -1.8 IIIQ2016 1.7 IVQ2016 0.33 IQ2017 0.01 IIQ2017
	0.11
	IIIQ2017 -0.28 IVQ2017 0.42 IQ2018 -0.48 IIQ2018 0.45 IIIQ2018 -1.29 IVQ2018 -2.12 IQ2019 2.81 IIQ2019 1.12 IIIQ2019 2.21 IVQ2019 -2.09 IQ2020 3.66 IIQ2020 -3.51 IIIQ2020

Sources: Country Statistical Agencies

https://www.bls.gov/bls/other.htm https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/related-sites.html

VD Euro Area. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2019. Euro Area GDP decreased 3.7 percent in IQ2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The GDP of the euro area decreased 11.7 percent in IIQ2020. Euro Area GDP decreased 12.5 percent in IIIQ2020. The global recession manifested in the euro area in four consecutive quarterly declines from IIQ2008 to IIQ2009. The strongest impact was contraction of 3.1 percent in IQ2009. Recovery began in IIIQ2009 with cumulative growth of 4.2 percent to IQ2011 or at the annual equivalent rate of 2.4 percent. Growth was much more vigorous from IVQ2003 to IQ2008. Using calendar and seasonally adjusted chain-linked volumes (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/), the GDP of the euro area (19 countries) fell 5.7 percent from IQ2008 to IIQ2009. The GDP of the euro area (19 countries) increased 10.4 percent from IIIQ2009 to IIIQ2020 at the annual equivalent rate of 0.9 percent. The GDP of the euro area (19 countries) is higher by 4.1 percent in IIIQ2020 relative to the pre-recession peak in IQ2008, growing at annual equivalent rate of 0.3 percent. The GDP of the euro area (18) countries increased at the average yearly rate of 2.3 percent from IQ1999 to IQ2008 while that of the euro area (19 countries) increased at 2.3 percent. The GDP of the euro area (19 countries) grew at 2.3 percent annual equivalent from IQ1999 to the pre-recession peak in IQ2008. The GDP of the euro area would grow under trend of 2.3 percent from €2,614,179.2 million in IQ2008 to €3,473,607.8 million in IIIQ2020. The estimate of GDP of €2,721,366.8 million in IIIQ2020 is 21.7 percent below trend. Table VD-EUR provides yearly growth rates of the combined GDP of the members of the European Monetary Union (EMU) or euro area since 1999. Growth was very strong at 3.2 percent in 2006 and 3.0 percent in 2007. The global recession had strong impact with growth of only 0.4 percent in 2008 and decline of 4.5 percent in 2009. Recovery was at lower growth rates of 2.1 percent in 2010 and 1.5 percent in 2011. EUROSTAT estimates growth of GDP of the euro area of minus 0.9 percent in 2012 and minus 0.3 percent in 2013. Euro Area GDP grew 1.2 percent in 2014 and grew 2.0 percent in 2015. The GDP of the euro area grew 1.7 percent in 2016.

Table VD-EUR, Euro Area, Yearly Percentage Change of Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, Unemployment and GDP ∆%

Year	HICP ∆%	Unemployment %	GDP ∆%
1999	1.2	9.7	3.0
2000	2.2	8.9	3.8
2001	2.4	8.3	2.1
2002	2.3	8.6	1.0
2003	2.1	9.1	0.7
2004	2.2	9.3	2.3
2005	2.2	9.1	1.7
2006	2.2	8.4	3.2
2007	2.2	7.5	3.0
2008	3.3	7.6	0.4
2009	0.3	9.6	-4.5
2010	1.6	10.2	2.1
2011	2.7	10.2	1.5
2012	2.5	11.4	-0.9
2013	1.3	12.0	-0.3
2014	0.4	11.6	1.2
2015	0.0	10.9	2.0
2016	0.2	10.0	1.7

The GDP of the euro area in 2015 in current US dollars in the dataset of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is $11,990.9 billion or 16.3 percent of world GDP of $73,598.8 billion (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/02/weodata/index.aspx). The sum of the GDP of France $2420.2 billion with the GDP of Germany of $3365.3 billion, Italy of $1815.8 billion and Spain $1199.7 billion is $8,801.0 billion or 73.4 percent of total euro area GDP and 13.1 percent of World GDP. The four largest economies account for slightly more than three quarters of economic activity of the euro area. Table VD-EUR1 is constructed with the dataset of EUROSTAT, providing growth rates of the euro area as a whole and of the largest four economies of Germany, France, Italy and Spain annually from 1996 to 2016. The impact of the global recession on the overall euro area economy and on the four largest economies was quite strong. There was sharp contraction in 2009 and growth rates have not rebounded to earlier growth with exception of Germany in 2010 and 2011.

Table VD-EUR1, Euro Area, Real GDP Growth Rate, ∆%

	Euro Area	Germany	France	Italy	Spain
2016	1.7	1.9	1.2	0.9	3.2
2015	2.0	1.7	1.3	0.8	3.2
2014	1.2	1.6	0.6	0.1	1.4
2013	-0.3	0.5	0.6	-1.7	-1.7
2012	-0.9	0.5	0.2	-2.8	-2.9
2011	1.5	3.7	2.1	0.6	-1.0
2010	2.1	4.1	2.0	1.7	0.0
2009	-4.5	-5.6	-2.9	-5.5	-3.6
2008	0.4	1.1	0.2	-1.1	1.1
2007	3.0	3.3	2.4	1.5	3.8
2006	3.2	3.7	2.4	2.0	4.2
2005	1.7	0.7	1.6	0.9	3.7
2004	2.3	1.2	2.8	1.6	3.2
2003	0.7	-0.7	0.8	0.2	3.2
2002	1.0	0.0	1.1	0.2	2.9
2001	2.1	1.7	2.0	1.8	4.0
2000	3.8	3.0	3.9	3.7	5.3
1999	3.0	2.0	3.4	1.6	4.5
1998	2.9	2.0	3.6	1.6	4.3
Average 1999-2016	1.2	1.3	1.3	0.3	1.7
Average 1999-2007	2.2	1.6	2.1	1.5	3.8
Average 2016-2007	0.3	1.0	0.6	-7.0*	-0.5*
1997	2.6	1.8	2.3	1.8	3.7
1996	1.6	0.8	1.4	1.3	2.7

Note: Absolute percentage change

Source: EUROSTAT

Table VD-1 provides percentage changes of euro area real GDP in a quarter relative to the prior quarter. Real GDP fell 0.4 percent in IVQ2011, fell 0.2 in IQ2012 and fell in the final three quarters of 2012: 0.3 percent in IIQ2012, 0.1 percent in IIIQ2012 and 0.4 percent in IVQ2012. GDP fell 0.4 percent in IQ2013 and increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2013. Growth slowed at 0.3 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2013. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IQ2014 and increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2014. GDP in the euro area increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2014. Euro area GDP increased 0.7 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015. Euro area GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2015. GDP in the euro area increased 0.6 percent in IQ2016 and increased 0.3 percent in IIQ2016. Euro area GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2016. GDP in the euro area increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2016. Euro area GDP increased 0.7 percent in IQ2017. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2017. Euro area GDP increased 0.8 percent in IIIQ2017. Euro area GDP increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2017. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.2 percent in IQ2018 and increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2018. Euro area GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2018 and increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2018. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.5 percent in IQ2019 and increased 0.2 percent in IIQ2019. Euro Area GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2019. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2019. Euro Area GDP decreased 3.7 percent in IQ2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The GDP of the euro area decreased 11.7 percent in IIQ2020. Euro Area GDP decreased 12.5 percent in IIIQ2020. The global recession manifested in the euro area in four consecutive quarterly declines from IIQ2008 to IIQ2009. The strongest impact was contraction of 3.1 percent in IQ2009. Recovery began in IIIQ2009 with cumulative growth of 4.2 percent to IQ2011 or at the annual equivalent rate of 2.4 percent. Growth was much more vigorous from IVQ2003 to IQ2008. Using calendar and seasonally adjusted chain-linked volumes (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/), the GDP of the euro area (19 countries) fell 5.7 percent from IQ2008 to IIQ2009. The GDP of the euro area (19 countries) increased 10.4 percent from IIIQ2009 to IIIQ2020 at the annual equivalent rate of 0.9 percent. The GDP of the euro area (19 countries) is higher by 4.1 percent in IIIQ2020 relative to the pre-recession peak in IQ2008, growing at annual equivalent rate of 0.3 percent. The GDP of the euro area (18) countries increased at the average yearly rate of 2.3 percent from IQ1999 to IQ2008 while that of the euro area (19 countries) increased at 2.3 percent. The GDP of the euro area (19 countries) grew at 2.3 percent annual equivalent from IQ1999 to the pre-recession peak in IQ2008. The GDP of the euro area would grow under trend of 2.3 percent from €2,614,179.2 million in IQ2008 to €3,473,607.8 million in IIIQ2020. The estimate of GDP of €2,721,366.8 million in IIIQ2020 is 21.7 percent below trend.

Table VD-1, Euro Area, Real GDP, Percentage Change from Prior Quarter, Calendar and Seasonally and Working Day Adjusted ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IVQ
2020	-3.7	-11.7	12.5
2019	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.1
2018	0.2	0.4	0.1	0.5
2017	0.7	0.7	0.8	0.8
2016	0.6	0.3	0.4	0.8
2015	0.7	0.4	0.4	0.4
2014	0.4	0.2	0.4	0.4
2013	-0.4	0.5	0.3	0.3
2012	-0.2	-0.3	-0.1	-0.4
2011	0.8	0.0	0.1	-0.4
2010	0.4	1.0	0.4	0.6
2009	-3.1	0.0	0.4	0.5
2008	0.4	-0.3	-0.5	-1.8
2007	0.6	0.7	0.4	0.6
2006	0.9	1.1	0.6	1.2
2005	0.2	0.6	0.8	0.6
2004	0.5	0.6	0.3	0.4
2003	-0.3	0.1	0.6	0.7
2002	0.1	0.5	0.4	0.2
2001	1.0	0.1	0.1	0.1
2000	1.2	0.9	0.6	0.7
1999	1.0	0.6	1.2	1.2

Source: EUROSTAT

Table VD-2 provides percentage change in real GDP in the euro area in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Growth rates were quite strong from 2004 to 2007. There were five consecutive quarters of sharp declines in GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier from IVQ2008 to IVQ2009 with sharp contractions of 5.6 percent in IQ2009, 5.4 percent in IIQ2009 and 4.5 percent in IIIQ2009. Growth rates decline in magnitude with 1.6 percent in IIIQ2011, 0.6 percent in IVQ211 and minus 0.5 percent in IQ2012 followed by contractions of 0.8 percent in IIQ2012, 1.0 percent in IIIQ2012 and 1.0 percent in IVQ2012. GDP contracted 1.2 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier and contracted 0.4 percent in IIQ2013 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP changed 0.1 percent in IIIQ2013 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 0.7 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 1.6 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, the GDP of the euro area increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 1.4 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.5 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 1.8 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 2.0 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 2.0 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 2.0 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 1.9 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 1.7 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 1.7 percent in IIIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 2.0 percent in IVQ2016 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 2.2 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 2.7 percent in IIQ2017 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 3.0 percent in IIIQ2017 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 3.1 percent in IVQ2017 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 2.5 percent in IQ2018 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 2.3 percent in IIQ2018 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 1.6 percent in IIIQ2018 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 1.2 percent in IVQ2018 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 1.5 percent in IQ2019 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 1.3 percent in IIQ2019 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the Euro area increased 1.4 percent in IIIQ2019 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 1.0 percent in IVQ2019 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area contracted 3.2 percent in IQ2020 relative to a year earlier, contracted at 14.7 percent in IIQ2020 relative to a year earlier and contracted 4.3 percent in IIIQ2020 relative to a year earlier in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.

Table VD-2, Euro Area, Real GDP Percentage Change in a Quarter Relative to Same Quarter a

Year Earlier, Seasonally and Working Day Adjusted ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IV
2020	-3.2	-14.7	-4.3
2019	1.5	1.3	1.4	1.0
2018	2.5	2.3	1.6	1.2
2017	2.2	2.7	3.0	3.1
2016	1.9	1.7	1.7	2.0
2015	1.8	2.0	2.0	2.0
2014	1.6	1.2	1.4	1.5
2013	-1.2	-0.4	0.1	0.7
2012	-0.5	-0.8	-1.0	-1.0
2011	2.9	1.9	1.6	0.6
2010	1.2	2.3	2.3	2.5
2009	-5.6	-5.4	-4.5	-2.3
2008	2.1	1.1	0.2	-2.2
2007	3.5	3.1	3.0	2.4
2006	2.9	3.4	3.2	3.8
2005	1.5	1.4	1.9	2.2
2004	1.9	2.4	2.1	1.7
2003	0.8	0.3	0.5	1.1
2002	0.4	0.9	1.2	1.2
2001	3.2	2.3	1.9	1.4
2000	4.2	4.5	3.9	3.4
1999	2.2	2.3	2.9	4.0

Source: EUROSTAT

Table VD-3 provides growth of euro area real GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier not seasonally adjusted. GDP fell 0.2 percent in IIQ2013 relative to a year earlier without seasonal adjustment and declined 1.8 percent in IQ2013 relative to a year earlier without seasonal adjustment. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2013 NSA relative to a year earlier and increased 0.6 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.7 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.0 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.4 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.6 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.8 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 2.0 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 2.0 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 2.3 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.8 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 2.4 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.6 percent in IIIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.7 percent in IVQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 2.8 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 2.0 percent in IIQ2017 relative to a year earlier. Euro area GDP increased 2.8 percent in IIIQ2017 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the euro area increased 2.8 percent in IVQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 2.2 percent in IQ2018 relative to a year earlier and increased 2.4 percent in IIQ2018 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IIIQ2018 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.4 percent in IVQ2018 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.4 percent in IQ2019 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.1 percent in IIQ2019 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.7 percent in IIIQ2019 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.9 percent in IVQ2019 relative to a year earlier. Growth rates in 2006 and 2007 were quite strong followed by sharp declines of 5.7 percent in IQ2009, 5.9 percent in IIQ2009 and 4.3 percent in IIIQ2009. GDP contracted 3.0 percent in IQ2020 relative to a year earlier, contracted 14.8 percent in IIQ2020 relative to a year earlier and contracted 4.3 percent in IIIQ2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event.

Table VD-3, Euro Area, Real GDP Percentage Change in a Quarter Relative to Same Quarter a Year Earlier, Not Seasonally Adjusted ∆%

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IV
2020	-3.0	-14.8	-4.3
2019	1.4	1.1	1.7	0.9
2018	2.2	2.4	1.6	1.4
2017	2.8	2.0	2.8	2.8
2016	1.8	2.4	1.6	1.7
2015	1.8	2.0	2.0	2.3
2014	1.7	1.0	1.4	1.6
2013	-1.8	-0.2	0.4	0.6
2012	-0.2	-1.1	-1.1	-1.1
2011	3.1	2.0	1.6	0.2
2010	1.2	2.5	2.4	2.4
2009	-5.7	-5.9	-4.3	-2.1
2008	1.8	1.6	0.6	-2.2
2007	3.4	3.1	3.1	2.4
2006	3.6	2.7	3.0	3.6
2005	1.0	2.0	1.8	1.8
2004	2.2	2.8	2.2	2.0
2003	0.9	0.1	0.5	1.1
2002	-0.1	1.1	1.5	1.1
2001	3.0	2.3	1.9	1.5
2000	4.8	4.3	3.5	2.8
1999	2.1	2.5	2.9	4.1

Source: EUROSTAT

Table VD-4 provides GDP growth in IVQ2018 and relative to the same quarter a year earlier with SAWDA (seasonal and working day adjustment) and NSA (not seasonally adjusted) for the Euro zone, European Union, Japan and the US. The second estimate of euro area GDP SAWDA for IIIQ2020 in Table VD-4 is growth of 12.5 percent in IIIQ2020 and contraction of 4.3 percent relative to a year earlier in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The GDP of the euro zone decreased 4.3 percent NSA in IIIQ2020 relative to a year earlier. The GDP of the European Union grew 11.5 percent in IIIQ2020, decreased 4.2 percent SWDA in IIIQ2020 relative to a year earlier and decreased 4.3 percent relative to a year earlier NSA in IIIQ2020. Growth had been weak worldwide with somewhat stronger performance by the US in the cycle as a whole but still insufficient to reduce unemployment and underemployment (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/12/dollar-devaluation-increasing.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2020/11/increase-in-oct-2020-of-nonfarm-payroll.html).

Table VD-4, Euro Zone, European Union, Japan and USA, Real GDP Growth

	∆% IIIQ2020/ IIQ2020 SAWDA	∆% IIIQ2020/ IIIQ2019 SWDA	∆% IIIQ2020/ IIIQ2019 NSA
Euro Zone	12.5	-4.3	-4.3
European Union	11.5	-4.2	-4.2
Germany	8.5	-4.0	-3.9
France	18.7	-3.9	-4.5
Netherlands	7.7	-2.5	-2.5
Finland	3.3	-2.8	-3.0
Belgium	11.4	-4.5	-4.5
Portugal	13.3	-5.7	-5.6
Ireland	11.1	8.1	8.1
Italy	15.9	-5.0	-5.2
Greece	2.3	-11.7	-9.6
Spain	16.7	-8.7	-8.7
United Kingdom	15.5	-9.6	-11.1
Japan	5.3		-5.7
USA	7.5	-2.8	-2.6

*SAWDA: Seasonally and Working Day Adjusted except UK, Japan and USA

***NSA

Source: EUROSTAT

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/11/PE20_465_811.html

VE Germany. Table VE-DE provides annual growth rates of the German economy from 1971 to 2019, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked (https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/05/PE20_180_811.html). Germany’s GDP fell 5.7 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.0 percent in 2008. Recovery had been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.2 percent in 2010, 3.9 percent in 2011 and 0.4 percent in 2012. Growth stabilized to 0.4 percent in 2013, increasing to 2.2 percent in 2014. The German economy grew at 1.5 percent in 2015 and grew at 2.2 percent in 2016. Germany’s GDP increased 2.6 percent in 2017 and increased 1.3 percent in 2018. The German economy grew at 0.6 percent in 2019.

The Federal Statistical Agency of Germany analyzes the fall and recovery of the German economy in its earlier website (http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Content/Statistics/VolkswirtschaftlicheGesamtrechnungen/Inlandsprodukt/Aktuell,templateId=renderPrint.psml):

“The German economy again grew strongly in 2011. The price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.0% compared with the previous year. Accordingly, the catching-up process of the German economy continued during the second year after the economic crisis. In the course of 2011, the price-adjusted GDP again exceeded its pre-crisis level. The economic recovery occurred mainly in the first half of 2011. In 2009, Germany experienced the most serious post-war recession, when GDP suffered a historic decline of 5.1%. The year 2010 was characterised by a rapid economic recovery (+3.7%).”

Table VE-DE, Germany, GDP ∆% on Prior Year

	Price Adjusted Chain-Linked	Price- and Calendar-Adjusted Chain Linked
Average ∆% 1991-2019	1.4	1.3
Average ∆% 1991-2018	1.4	1.4
Average ∆% 1991-1999	1.4	1.4
Average ∆% 2000-2007	1.3	1.4
Average ∆% 2003-2007	2.2	2.2
Average ∆% 2007-2019	1.2	1.2
Average ∆% 2009-2019	1.9	2.0
2019	0.6	0.6
2018	1.3	1.3
2017	2.6	2.9
2016	2.2	2.1
2015	1.5	1.2
2014	2.2	2.2
2013	0.4	0.6
2012	0.4	0.6
2011	3.9	4.0
2010	4.2	4.0
2009	-5.7	-5.6
2008	1.0	0.7
2007	3.0	3.1
2006	3.8	4.0
2005	0.7	0.9
2004	1.2	0.7
2003	-0.7	-0.7
2002	-0.2	-0.2
2001	1.7	1.8
2000	2.9	3.1
1999	1.9	1.8
1998	2.0	1.8
1997	1.8	1.9
1996	0.8	0.8
1995	1.5	1.6
1994	2.4	2.5
1993	-1.0	-1.0
1992	1.9	1.5
1991	5.1	5.2
1990	5.3	5.5
1989	3.9	4.0
1988	3.7	3.4
1987	1.4	1.3
1986	2.3	2.3
1985	2.3	2.6
1984	2.8	2.9
1983	1.6	1.5
1982	-0.4	-0.5
1981	0.5	0.6
1980	1.4	1.3
1979	4.2	4.3
1978	3.0	3.1
1977	3.3	3.5
1976	4.9	4.5
1975	-0.9	-0.9
1974	0.9	1.0
1973	4.8	5.0
1972	4.3	4.3
1971	3.1	3.0
1970	NA	NA

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

The Federal Statistical Office of Germany released estimates for IIIQ2020 on Nov 24, 2020 (https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/11/PE20_465_811.html). Table VE-1 provides percentage change of Germany’s GDP in one quarter relative to the prior quarter from 1999 to 2020. Germany’s GDP contracted during four consecutive quarters from IIQ2008 to IQ2009. The deepest contraction was 4.7 percent in IQ2009. Growth was quite strong from IIIQ2009 to IQ2011 for cumulative growth of 8.1 percent in seven quarters or at the average rate of 1.1 percent per quarter, which is equivalent to 4.5 percent per year. Economic growth decelerated in IIQ2011 to 0.1 percent and 0.9 percent in IIIQ2011. The economy contracted 0.3 percent in IVQ2011 and grew 0.2 percent in IQ2012 but at 0.2 percent in IIQ2012. GDP growth in IIIQ2012 was 0.3 percent relative to IIQ2012. Germany’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IVQ2012 relative to IIIQ2012. GDP decreased 0.5 percent in IQ2013 and increased 1.1 percent in IIQ2013. Growth of GDP was 0.5 percent in IIIQ2013 and 0.3 percent in IVQ2013. Germany’s growth was robust at revised 1.0 percent in IQ2014 or 4.1 percent in annual equivalent. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2014. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014. The GDP of Germany increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2014. GDP decreased 0.5 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2015. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and grew 0.5 percent in IVQ2015. GDP grew 0.9 percent in IQ2016 and increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2016. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2016. GDP grew 1.2 percent in IQ2017 and increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2017. GDP grew 0.9 percent in IIIQ2017 and increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2017. GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IQ2018 and increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2018. GDP contracted 0.3 percent in IIIQ2018 and increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2018. GDP grew 0.6 percent in IQ2019 and contracted 0.5 percent in IIQ2019. GDP grew 0.3 percent in IIIQ2019 and changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2019. GDP contracted 1.9 percent in IQ2020, contracted 9.8 percent in IIQ2020 and increased 8.5 percent in IIIQ2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Using seasonally and calendar adjusted data (https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/11/PE20_465_811.html), Germany’s GDP contracted 7.0 percent from IQ2008 to IQ2009. GDP grew 17.1 percent from IQ2009 to IIIQ2020 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.4 percent. GDP grew at the annual equivalent rate of 0.7 percent from IQ2008 to IIIQ2020.

The Federal Statistical Office of Germany released estimates for IIIQ2020 on Nov 24, 2020 (https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/11/PE20_465_811.html). Consumption expenditures of households and NPISH increased 10.8 percent in IIIQ2020. Government final consumption increased 0.8 percent and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) increased 3.6 percent. GFCF in machinery and equipment increased 16.0 percent and GFCF in construction decreased 2.0 percent. Net trade deducted 1.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net traded deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2019 and deducted 0.6 percentage points in IIQ2019. Net trade added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.3 percentage points in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.8 percentage points in IQ2020. Net trade deducted 2.9 percentage points in IIQ2020. Net trade added 3.9 percentage points in IIIQ2020. The Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)) measures contributions of domestic demand to GDP growth in IQ2020 (https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/11/PE20_465_811.html). Final consumption expenditure contributed 5.8 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2020 and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) contributed 0.8 percentage points. Gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment contributed 1.0 percentage points and gross fixed capital formation in construction deducted 0.2 percentage points. The Federal Statistical Office of Germany released preliminary results for IIIQ2020 on Nov 24, 2020, stating (https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/11/PE20_465_811.html): “WIESBADEN – The gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 8.5% in the third quarter of 2020 compared with the second quarter of 2020 after adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations. Thus, the German economy could offset a large part of the massive decline in the gross domestic product recorded in the second quarter of 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic. However, the price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP was still 4.0% lower in the third quarter of 2020 than in the fourth quarter of 2020, that is the quarter before the coronavirus crisis.”

Table VE-1, Germany Quarter GDP ∆% Relative to Prior Quarter, Seasonally and Calendar Adjusted

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IV
2020	-1.9	-9.8	8.5
2019	0.6	-0.5	0.3	0.0
2018	-0.2	0.5	-0.3	0.3
2017	1.2	0.7	0.9	0.8
2016	0.9	0.4	0.2	0.4
2015	-0.5	0.7	0.4	0.5
2014	1.0	0.0	0.5	0.8
2013	-0.5	1.1	0.5	0.3
2012	0.2	0.2	0.3	-0.4
2011	2.0	0.1	0.9	-0.3
2010	0.8	2.2	0.8	0.8
2009	-4.7	0.2	0.5	0.7
2008	0.6	-0.3	-0.6	-1.6
2007	0.1	0.8	0.5	0.7
2006	1.0	1.7	0.8	1.5
2005	0.0	0.5	0.8	0.5
2004	-0.2	0.5	-0.2	-0.1
2003	-1.5	0.1	0.8	0.3
2002	-0.5	0.4	0.5	-0.1
2001	2.0	0.0	-0.2	-0.1
2000	1.4	0.8	0.0	-0.3
1999	1.2	0.0	1.2	0.8

Seasonal and calendar adjusted Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/11/PE20_465_811.html

Table VE-2 provides percentage changes of Germany’s GDP in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Growth was weak in the recovery from the recession of 2001 through 2005, as in most of the euro area (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 116-46). Germany’s economy then grew robustly in 2006 and 2007 until the global recession after 2007. Germany recovered with robust growth in 2010 and vigorous 6.4 percent in IQ2011 relative to a year earlier. The economy decelerated in the final three quarters of 2011, growing 1.5 percent in IQ2012 relative to IQ2011. Growth decelerated further to 0.4 percent in IIQ2012 without calendar adjustment and 0.9 percent with calendar adjustment and to minus 0.1 percent in IIIQ2012. Growth in IVQ2012 relative to IVQ2011 was minus 0.1 percent. The GDP of Germany increased 0.2 percent in IQ2012 and increased 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier but 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier when adjusted for calendar effects (CA). In IIIQ2012, Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP contracted 0.4 percent in IVQ2012 and decreased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2013, Germany’s GDP decreased 0.5 percent and fell 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 1.1 percent and grew 0.8 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2013 and grew 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2013, Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 1.0 percent in IQ2014 and grew 3.2 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2014, Germany’s GDP changed 0.0 percent and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2014 and increased 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany decreased 0.5 percent in IQ2015 and increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2015 and grew 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Germany increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2015 and grew 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2015 and grew 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2016, the GDP of Germany increased 0.9 percent and grew 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2016 and increased 3.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2016, the GDP of Germany increased 0.2 percent and grew 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IVQ2016 and grew 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IQ2017, the GDP of Germany increased 1.2 percent and grew 3.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Germany’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in IIQ2017 and grew 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier and 2.5 percent relative to a year earlier adjusting for calendar effects (CA). In IIIQ2017, the GDP of Germany increased 0.9 percent and increased 2.7 percent relative to a year earlier and 3.1 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.8 percent in IVQ2017, 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier and 3.6 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany decreased 0.2 percent in IQ2018 and grew 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier and 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2018, 2.4 percent relative to a year earlier and 2.0 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany decreased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2018, increasing 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier and 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 0.3 percent in IVQ2018, increasing 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier and 0.3 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany increased 0.6 percent in IQ2019, increasing 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier and increasing 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP contracted 0.5 percent in IIQ2019, decreased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier and increased 0.1 relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany increased 0.3 percent in IIIQ2019, increasing 1.2 percent relative to a year earlier and increasing 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2019, increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP decreased 1.9 percent in IQ2020, decreased 1.7 percent relative to a year earlier and decreased 2.1 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). The GDP of Germany decreased 9.8 percent in IIQ2020, decreased 11.3 percent relative to a year earlier and decreased 11.3 percent relative to a year earlier (CA). Germany’s GDP increased 8.5 percent in IIIQ2020, decreased 3.9 percent relative to a year earlier and decreased 4.0 percent relative to a year earlier (CA).

Table VE-2, Germany, Quarter GDP ∆% Relative to Same Quarter a Year Earlier, Price Adjusted NCSA

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IV
2020	-1.7	-11.3	-3.9
2019	1.0	-0.3	1.2	0.2
2018	1.5	2.4	0.7	0.5
2017	3.6	1.2	2.7	3.0
2016	2.2	3.6	1.9	1.4
2015	1.0	1.5	1.5	1.9
2014	3.2	1.4	1.8	2.4
2013	-1.5	0.8	1.2	1.2
2012	1.5	0.4	-0.1	-0.1
2011	6.4	3.8	3.7	2.0
2010	2.5	4.8	4.7	4.7
2009	-6.7	-7.9	-5.5	-2.7
2008	2.0	2.9	1.0	-1.9
2007	4.0	3.1	2.9	1.9
2006	4.3	2.7	3.5	4.7
2005	-0.7	1.1	1.2	1.2
2004	1.7	1.9	0.4	0.8
2003	-0.5	-1.4	-0.7	-0.2
2002	-1.7	0.0	0.8	0.0
2001	2.2	1.6	1.4	1.6
2000	4.2	3.9	2.5	1.0
1999	0.9	1.7	1.8	3.1

Price adjusted NSA Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/11/PE20_465_811.html

There are strong calendar effects in economic activity in Germany. Table VE-3 provides Germany’s percentage change in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier adjusting for price changes and calendar effects.

Table VE-3, Germany, Quarter GDP ∆% Relative to Same Quarter a Year Earlier, Calendar and Price Adjusted NSA

	IQ	IIQ	IIIQ	IV
2020	-2.1	-11.3	-4.0
2019	1.1	0.1	0.7	0.4
2018	2.2	2.0	0.7	0.3
2017	2.3	2.5	3.1	3.6
2016	2.6	2.2	2.0	1.9
2015	0.9	1.5	1.4	1.1
2014	3.0	1.8	1.8	2.3
2013	-0.3	0.4	0.7	1.4
2012	1.0	0.9	0.4	0.2
2011	6.1	3.7	3.8	2.5
2010	2.4	4.4	4.7	4.6

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/05/PE20_180_811.html

VE Germany. Table VE-4 provides annual growth rates of the German economy from 1971 to 2019, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked (https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/05/PE20_180_811.html). Germany’s GDP fell 5.7 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.0 percent in 2008. Recovery had been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.2 percent in 2010, 3.9 percent in 2011 and 0.4 percent in 2012. Growth stabilized to 0.4 percent in 2013, increasing to 2.2 percent in 2014. The German economy grew at 1.5 percent in 2015 and grew at 2.2 percent in 2016. Germany’s GDP increased 2.6 percent in 2017 and increased 1.3 percent in 2018. The German economy grew at 0.6 percent in 2019.

Table VE-4, Germany, GDP ∆% on Prior Year

	Price Adjusted Chain-Linked	Price- and Calendar-Adjusted Chain Linked
Average ∆% 1991-2019	1.4	1.3
Average ∆% 1991-2018	1.4	1.4
Average ∆% 1991-1999	1.4	1.4
Average ∆% 2000-2007	1.3	1.4
Average ∆% 2003-2007	2.2	2.2
Average ∆% 2007-2019	1.2	1.2
Average ∆% 2009-2019	1.9	2.0
2019	0.6	0.6
2018	1.3	1.3
2017	2.6	2.9
2016	2.2	2.1
2015	1.5	1.2
2014	2.2	2.2
2013	0.4	0.6
2012	0.4	0.6
2011	3.9	4.0
2010	4.2	4.0
2009	-5.7	-5.6
2008	1.0	0.7
2007	3.0	3.1
2006	3.8	4.0
2005	0.7	0.9
2004	1.2	0.7
2003	-0.7	-0.7
2002	-0.2	-0.2
2001	1.7	1.8
2000	2.9	3.1
1999	1.9	1.8
1998	2.0	1.8
1997	1.8	1.9
1996	0.8	0.8
1995	1.5	1.6
1994	2.4	2.5
1993	-1.0	-1.0
1992	1.9	1.5
1991	5.1	5.2
1990	5.3	5.5
1989	3.9	4.0
1988	3.7	3.4
1987	1.4	1.3
1986	2.3	2.3
1985	2.3	2.6
1984	2.8	2.9
1983	1.6	1.5
1982	-0.4	-0.5
1981	0.5	0.6
1980	1.4	1.3
1979	4.2	4.3
1978	3.0	3.1
1977	3.3	3.5
1976	4.9	4.5
1975	-0.9	-0.9
1974	0.9	1.0
1973	4.8	5.0
1972	4.3	4.3
1971	3.1	3.0
1970	NA	NA

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/11/PE20_465_811.html

The quarterly contributions of net trade or trade balance, exports and imports to GDP growth in Germany are in Table VE-5. There have been wide fluctuations in the contribution of net trade to Germany’s GDP growth. Net trade contributed 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2017, deducting 0.2 percentage points in IIQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.5 percentage points in IIIQ2017, adding 0.1 percentage points in IVQ2017. Net trade contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2018 and deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IIQ2018. Net trade deducted 1.0 percentage points from GDP growth in IIIQ2018. Net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth in IVQ2018. Net trade contributed 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in IQ2019 and deducted 0.6 percentage points in IIQ2019. Net trade contributed 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in IIIQ2019 and deducted 0.3 percentage points in IVQ2019. Net trade deducted 0.8 percentage points in IQ2020 and deducted 2.9 percentage points in IIQ2020. Net trade contributed 3.9 percentage points in IIIQ2020.

Table VE-5, Germany, Contributions of Trade Balance, Exports and Imports to GDP Growth, Percent

		Net Trade	Exports	Imports
2014	Q1	– 0.1	0.1	0.4
	Q2	– 0.3	0.8	1.6
	Q3	0.7	2	0.6
	Q4	0.1	2	1.9
2015	Q1	– 0.4	0.8	1.9
	Q2	0.6	1.9	0.6
	Q3	– 0.4	0.1	1
	Q4	– 0.6	– 0.3	1
2016	Q1	– 0.4	0.8	1.9
	Q2	0.7	1.2	– 0.2
	Q3	– 0.2	– 0.1	0.5
	Q4	– 0.7	1	2.8
2017	Q1	0.7	2.1	0.8
	Q2	– 0.2	1.7	2.6
	Q3	0.5	1.1	0.1
	Q4	0.1	1.8	2
2018	Q1	0.1	– 0.2	– 0.4
	Q2	– 0.2	0.8	1.5
	Q3	– 1.0	– 0.9	1.3
	Q4	– 0.2	0.2	0.6
2019	Q1	0.3	1.7	1.4
	Q2	– 0.6	– 1.4	– 0.3
	Q3	0.6	1.3	– 0.3
	Q4	– 0.3	– 0.6	0.1
2020	Q1	– 0.8	– 3.1	– 1.6
	Q2	-2.9
	Q3	3.9

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/11/PE20_465_811.html

Chart VE-1 of Destatis provides Germany’s GDP price adjusted and adjusted and unadjusted for calendar effects. There is much sharper contraction in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event than in global recession after 2007 and also sharp recovery with partial reopening of economic activity.

Chart VE-1, Germany, GDP Price Adjusted Seasonal and Calendar and Calendar Unadjusted

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/11/PE20_465_811.htm

Chart GDP of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis provides the rates of growth of GDP at SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the 16 quarters from IVQ2016 to IIIQ2020. Growth has been fluctuating with sharp contraction in IQ2020 and IIQ2020 in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event followed by sharp recovery.

Chart GDP, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Rates of Growth of United States GDP, ∆%

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

VG Italy. Table VG-IT provides revised percentage changes of GDP in Italy of quarter on prior quarter and quarter on same quarter a year earlier. Italy’s GDP grew 15.9 percent in IIIQ2020 and contracted 5.0 percent relative to a year earlier in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The GDP of Italy contracted 13.0 percent in IIQ2020 and contracted 18.0 percent relative to a year earlier in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Italy’s GDP contracted 5.5 percent in IQ2020 and decreased 5.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy decreased 0.3 percent in IVQ2019 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2019 and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2019, Italy’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2019 and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2018, the GDP of Italy increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2018 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2018, the GDP of Italy increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IQ2018 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, the GDP of Italy increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2017 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2017, the GDP of Italy increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, the GDP of Italy increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2016, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2015, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IVQ2014 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.1 percent in IQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IVQ2013 and fell 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2013 and fell 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.9 percent in IQ2013 and declined 2.9 percent relative to IQ2012. GDP had been growing during six consecutive quarters but at very low rates from IQ2010 to IIQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell in seven consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at increasingly higher rates of contraction from 0.5 percent in IIIQ2011 to 0.9 percent in IVQ2011, 1.2 percent in IQ2012, 0.7 percent in IIQ2012 and 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012. The pace of decline accelerated to minus 0.8 percent in IVQ2012 and minus 0.9 percent in IQ2013. GDP contracted cumulatively 5.4 percent in seven consecutive quarterly contractions from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at the annual equivalent rate of minus 3.1 percent. The year-on-year rate has fallen from 2.1 percent in IVQ2010 to minus 3.2 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.9 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.2 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.5 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.9 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.4 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.4 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.3 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IIIQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.3 percent in IVQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.8 percent in IIQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IIIQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.9 percent in IVQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.4 percent in IQ2018 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.1 percent in IIQ2018 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2018 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2018 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2019 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2019 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIIQ2019 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2019 relative to a year earlier. GDP contracted 5.6 percent in IQ2020 relative to a year earlier, contracted 18.0 percent in IIQ2020 relative to a year earlier and contracted 5.0 percent in IIIQ2020 relative to a year earlier in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Istat updated the national accounts of Italy, using 2015 base, with the release of Oct 2, 2020 (https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/247904). Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/), the GDP of Italy (using the base of 2015) in IIIQ2020 of €410,569.3 million (https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/246771) is lower by 9.3 percent relative to €452,898.0 million in IQ2008 (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/). Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/), the GDP of Italy increased from €391,924.2 million in IQ1998 to €452,898.0 million in IQ2008 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.5 percent. The fiscal adjustment of Italy is significantly more difficult with the economy not growing especially on the prospects of increasing government revenue. The strategy is for reforms to improve productivity, facilitating future fiscal consolidation.

Table VG-IT, Italy, GDP ∆%

	Quarter ∆% Relative to Preceding Quarter	Quarter ∆% Relative to Same Quarter Year Earlier
IIIQ2020	15.9	-5.0
IIQ2020	-13.0	-18.0
IQ2020	-5.5	-5.6
IVQ2019	-0.3	0.1
IIIQ2019	0.0	0.5
IIQ2019	0.2	0.4
IQ2019	0.2	0.3
IVQ2018	0.1	0.2
IIIQ2018	-0.1	0.6
IIQ2018	0.1	1.1
IQ2018	0.0	1.4
IVQ2017	0.6	1.9
IIIQ2017	0.4	1.6
IIQ2017	0.4	1.8
IQ2017	0.5	1.6
IVQ2016	0.3	1.3
IIIQ2016	0.5	1.6
IIQ2016	0.2	1.3
IQ2016	0.3	1.4
IVQ2015	0.5	1.4
IIIQ2015	0.2	0.6
IIQ2015	0.4	0.5
IQ2015	0.2	0.1
IVQ2014	-0.2	0.0
IIIQ2014	0.1	0.0
IIQ2014	0.0	0.1
IQ2014	0.1	0.1
IVQ2013	-0.2	-0.9
IIIQ2013	0.2	-1.5
IIQ2013	0.0	-2.2
IQ2013	-0.9	-2.9
IVQ2012	-0.8	-3.2
IIIQ2012	-0.5	-3.3
IIQ2012	-0.7	-3.2
IQ2012	-1.2	-2.4
IVQ2011	-0.9	-0.9
IIIQ2011	-0.5	0.6
IIQ2011	0.1	1.5
IQ2011	0.4	2.2
IVQ2010	0.6	2.1
IIIQ2010	0.4	1.8
IIQ2010	0.7	1.9
IQ2010	0.4	0.8
IVQ2009	0.3	-2.3
IIIQ2009	0.5	-5.0
IIQ2009	-0.3	-6.6
IQ2009	-2.8	-7.2
IVQ2008	-2.5	-3.5
IIIQ2008	-1.2	-1.4
IIQ2008	-0.9	0.0
IQ2008	1.1	1.0
IV2007	-0.3	0.0
IIIQ2007	0.2	1.5
IIQ2007	0.1	1.7
IQ2007	0.0	2.3

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/247904

https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/246771

https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/246771

Table VG-1 provides revised percentage changes of GDP in Italy of quarter on prior quarter and quarter on same quarter a year earlier. Italy’s GDP grew 15.9 percent in IIIQ2020 and contracted 5.0 percent relative to a year earlier in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. The GDP of Italy contracted 13.0 percent in IIQ2020 and contracted 18.0 percent relative to a year earlier in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Italy’s GDP contracted 5.5 percent in IQ2020 and decreased 5.6 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy decreased 0.3 percent in IVQ2019 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2019 and increased 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2019, Italy’s GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.4 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2019 and increased 0.3 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2018, the GDP of Italy increased 0.1 percent and increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2018 and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2018, the GDP of Italy increased 0.1 percent and increased 1.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IQ2018 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2017, the GDP of Italy increased 0.6 percent and increased 1.9 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIIQ2017 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2017, the GDP of Italy increased 0.4 percent and increased 1.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IQ2017 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IVQ2016, the GDP of Italy increased 0.3 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIQ2016 and increased 1.6 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIQ2016, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 1.3 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2016 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IVQ2015 and increased 1.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In IIIQ2015, GDP increased 0.2 percent and increased 0.6 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2015 and 0.5 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.2 percent in IQ2015 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IVQ2014 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IIIQ2014 and changed 0.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.1 percent in IQ2014 and increased 0.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP decreased 0.2 percent in IVQ2013 and fell 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier. The GDP of Italy increased 0.2 percent in IIIQ2013 and fell 1.5 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIQ2013 and fell 2.2 percent relative to a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.9 percent in IQ2013 and declined 2.9 percent relative to IQ2012. GDP had been growing during six consecutive quarters but at very low rates from IQ2010 to IIQ2011. Italy’s GDP fell in seven consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at increasingly higher rates of contraction from 0.5 percent in IIIQ2011 to 0.9 percent in IVQ2011, 1.2 percent in IQ2012, 0.7 percent in IIQ2012 and 0.5 percent in IIIQ2012. The pace of decline accelerated to minus 0.8 percent in IVQ2012 and minus 0.9 percent in IQ2013. GDP contracted cumulatively 5.4 percent in seven consecutive quarterly contractions from IIIQ2011 to IQ2013 at the annual equivalent rate of minus 3.1 percent. The year-on-year rate has fallen from 2.1 percent in IVQ2010 to minus 3.2 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.9 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.2 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.5 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 0.9 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.1 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP changed 0.0 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and changed 0.0 percent in IVQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.1 percent in IQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.5 percent in IIQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2015 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.4 percent in IVQ2015 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.4 percent in IQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.3 percent in IIQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IIIQ2016 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.3 percent in IVQ2016 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.8 percent in IIQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.6 percent in IIIQ2017 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.9 percent in IVQ2017 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 1.4 percent in IQ2018 relative to a year earlier and increased 1.1 percent in IIQ2018 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.6 percent in IIIQ2018 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.2 percent in IVQ2018 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.3 percent in IQ2019 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.4 percent in IIQ2019 relative to a year earlier. GDP increased 0.5 percent in IIIIQ2019 relative to a year earlier and increased 0.1 percent in IVQ2019 relative to a year earlier. GDP contracted 5.6 percent in IQ2020 relative to a year earlier, contracted 18.0 percent in IIQ2020 relative to a year earlier and contracted 5.0 percent in IIIQ2020 relative to a year earlier in the global recession, with output in the US reaching a high in Feb 2020 (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html), in the lockdown of economic activity in the COVID-19 event. Istat updated the national accounts of Italy, using 2015 base, with the release of Oct 2, 2020 (https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/247904). Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/), the GDP of Italy (using the base of 2015) in IIIQ2020 of €410,569.3 million (https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/246771) is lower by 9.3 percent relative to €452,898.0 million in IQ2008 (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/). Using seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volumes in the dataset of EUROSTAT (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/), the GDP of Italy increased from €391,924.2 million in IQ1998 to €452,898.0 million in IQ2008 at the annual equivalent rate of 1.5 percent. The fiscal adjustment of Italy is significantly more difficult with the economy not growing especially on the prospects of increasing government revenue. The strategy is for reforms to improve productivity, facilitating future fiscal consolidation.

Table VG-I, Italy, GDP ∆%

	Quarter ∆% Relative to Preceding Quarter	Quarter ∆% Relative to Same Quarter Year Earlier
IIIQ2020	15.9	-5.0
IIQ2020	-13.0	-18.0
IQ2020	-5.5	-5.6
IVQ2019	-0.3	0.1
IIIQ2019	0.0	0.5
IIQ2019	0.2	0.4
IQ2019	0.2	0.3
IVQ2018	0.1	0.2
IIIQ2018	-0.1	0.6
IIQ2018	0.1	1.1
IQ2018	0.0	1.4
IVQ2017	0.6	1.9
IIIQ2017	0.4	1.6
IIQ2017	0.4	1.8
IQ2017	0.5	1.6
IVQ2016	0.3	1.3
IIIQ2016	0.5	1.6
IIQ2016	0.2	1.3
IQ2016	0.3	1.4
IVQ2015	0.5	1.4
IIIQ2015	0.2	0.6
IIQ2015	0.4	0.5
IQ2015	0.2	0.1
IVQ2014	-0.2	0.0
IIIQ2014	0.1	0.0
IIQ2014	0.0	0.1
IQ2014	0.1	0.1
IVQ2013	-0.2	-0.9
IIIQ2013	0.2	-1.5
IIQ2013	0.0	-2.2
IQ2013	-0.9	-2.9
IVQ2012	-0.8	-3.2
IIIQ2012	-0.5	-3.3
IIQ2012	-0.7	-3.2
IQ2012	-1.2	-2.4
IVQ2011	-0.9	-0.9
IIIQ2011	-0.5	0.6
IIQ2011	0.1	1.5
IQ2011	0.4	2.2
IVQ2010	0.6	2.1
IIIQ2010	0.4	1.8
IIQ2010	0.7	1.9
IQ2010	0.4	0.8
IVQ2009	0.3	-2.3
IIIQ2009	0.5	-5.0
IIQ2009	-0.3	-6.6
IQ2009	-2.8	-7.2
IVQ2008	-2.5	-3.5
IIIQ2008	-1.2	-1.4
IIQ2008	-0.9	0.0
IQ2008	1.1	1.0
IV2007	-0.3	0.0
IIIQ2007	0.2	1.5
IIQ2007	0.1	1.7
IQ2007	0.0	2.3

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/247904

Levels and rates of growth of GDP in Italy in IIIQ2020 are in Table VG-2. GFCF (Gross Fixed Capital formation) increased 31.3 percent in IIIQ2020, increasing 0.7 percent relative to a year earlier. Final consumption increased 9.2 percent in IIIQ2020, decreasing 5.7 percent relative to a year earlier.

Table VG-2, Italy, GDP in Chained Volumes SCA Euro and ∆%

Aggregate	Chained Volumes Million Euro	∆% IIIQ2020/ IIQ2020	∆% IIIQ2020/ IIIQ2019
GDP	410,569	+15.9	-5.0
Imports	111,363	+15.9	-11.9
Final Consumption	322,761	+9.2	-5.7
Household and NPISH	243,218	+12.4	-7.4
Government	79,462	_+0.7	-0.2
GFCF	79,545	+31.3	+0.7
Equipment	28,980	+34.3	-4.3
Transport	5,364	+72.0	-4.6
Residential Construction	19,070	+45.0	+4.7
Nonresidential Construction	17,467	+45.1	+5.0
Intellectual Property Products	13,848	+0.7	+1.1
Change in Inventories	-	-	-
Exports	123,754	+30.7	-9.1

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

Contributions to quarterly growth of GDP in Italy are in Table VG-3. GDP increased at 15.9 percent in IIIQ2020. Final national consumption contributed 7.7 percentage points. Inventory investment deducted 1.0 percentage points. Net trade contributed 4.0 percentage points and fixed investment contributed 5.3 percentage points.

Table VG-3, Italy, Contributions to Quarterly Change of GDP, %

	IVQ2019	IQ2020	IIQ2020	IIIQ2020
Internal Demand Net of Stocks	-0.2	-5.7	-9.8	+13.0
Final National Consumption	-0.1	-4.3	-6.7	+7.7
Fixed Investment	0.0	-1.4	-3.0	+5.3
Change in Stocks	-0.6	+1.2	-0.9	-1.0
Net Exports	+0.5	-1.0	-2.3	+4.0
GDP	-0.3	-5.5	-13.0	+15.9

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica