Global Financial and Economic Risk, Recovery without Hiring, Loss of Ten Million Full-time Jobs, Youth and Middle Age Unemployment, United States International Trade, United States Services, World Cyclical Slow Growth and Global Recession Risk: Part VI

 

Global Financial and Economic Risk, Recovery without Hiring, Loss of Ten Million Full-time Jobs, Youth and Middle Age Unemployment, United States International Trade, United States Services, World Cyclical Slow Growth and Global Recession Risk

Carlos M. Pelaez

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

I Recovery without Hiring

IA1 Hiring Collapse

IA2 Labor Underutilization

ICA3 Ten Million Fewer Full-time Jobs

IA4 Theory and Reality of Cyclical Slow Growth Not Secular Stagnation: Youth and Middle-Age Unemployment

IIA United States International Trade

IIA1 Import and Export Prices

II United States Services

III World Financial Turbulence

IIIA Financial Risks

IIIE Appendix Euro Zone Survival Risk

IIIF Appendix on Sovereign Bond Valuation

IV Global Inflation

V World Economic Slowdown

VA United States

VB Japan

VC China

VD Euro Area

VE Germany

VF France

VG Italy

VH United Kingdom

VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets

VII Economic Indicators

VIII Interest Rates

IX Conclusion

References

Appendixes

Appendix I The Great Inflation

IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies

IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact

IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort

IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis

IIIGA Monetary Policy with Deficit Financing of Economic Growth

IIIGB Adjustment during the Debt Crisis of the 1980s

VC China. China estimates an index of nonmanufacturing purchasing managers based on a sample of 1200 nonmanufacturing enterprises across the country (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Table CIPMNM provides this index and components. The total index increased from 55.7 in Jan 2011 to 58.0 in Mar 2012, decreasing to 53.9 in Aug 2013. The index decreased from 56.0 in Nov 2013 to 54.6 in Dec 2013, easing to 53.4 in Jan 2014. The index moved to 53.9 in Nov 2014. The index of new orders increased from 52.2 in Jan 2012 to 54.3 in Dec 2012 but fell to 50.1 in May 2013, barely above the neutral frontier of 50.0. The index of new orders stabilized at 51.0 in Nov-Dec 2013, easing to 50.9 in Jan 2014. The index of new orders moved to 50.1 in Nov 2014.

Table CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted

	Total Index	New Orders	Interm. Input Prices	Subs Prices	Exp
Nov 2014	53.9	50.1	50.6	47.7	59.7
Oct	53.8	51.0	52.0	48.8	59.9
Sep	54.0	49.5	49.8	47.3	60.9
Aug	54.4	50.0	52.2	48.3	61.2
Jul	54.2	50.7	53.4	49.5	61.5
Jun	55.0	50.7	56.0	50.8	60.4
May	55.5	52.7	54.5	49.0	60.7
Apr	54.8	50.8	52.4	49.4	61.5
Mar	54.5	50.8	52.8	49.5	61.5
Feb	55.0	51.4	52.1	49.0	59.9
Jan	53.4	50.9	54.5	50.1	58.1
Dec 2013	54.6	51.0	56.9	52.0	58.7
Nov	56.0	51.0	54.8	49.5	61.3
Oct	56.3	51.6	56.1	51.4	60.5
Sep	55.4	53.4	56.7	50.6	60.1
Aug	53.9	50.9	57.1	51.2	62.9
Jul	54.1	50.3	58.2	52.4	63.9
Jun	53.9	50.3	55.0	50.6	61.8
May	54.3	50.1	54.4	50.7	62.9
Apr	54.5	50.9	51.1	47.6	62.5
Mar	55.6	52.0	55.3	50.0	62.4
Feb	54.5	51.8	56.2	51.1	62.7
Jan	56.2	53.7	58.2	50.9	61.4
Dec 2012	56.1	54.3	53.8	50.0	64.6
Nov	55.6	53.2	52.5	48.4	64.6
Oct	55.5	51.6	58.1	50.5	63.4
Sep	53.7	51.8	57.5	51.3	60.9
Aug	56.3	52.7	57.6	51.2	63.2
Jul	55.6	53.2	49.7	48.7	63.9
Jun	56.7	53.7	52.1	48.6	65.5
May	55.2	52.5	53.6	48.5	65.4
Apr	56.1	52.7	57.9	50.3	66.1
Mar	58.0	53.5	60.2	52.0	66.6
Feb	57.3	52.7	59.0	51.2	63.8
Jan	55.7	52.2	58.2	51.1	65.3

Notes: Interm.: Intermediate; Subs: Subscription; Exp: Business Expectations

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart CIPMNM provides China’s nonmanufacturing purchasing managers’ index. The index fell from 56.0 in Oct 2013 to 53.9 in Nov 2014.

Chart CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Table CIPMMFG provides the index of purchasing managers of manufacturing seasonally adjusted of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The general index (IPM) rose from 50.5 in Jan 2012 to 53.3 in Apr 2012, falling to 49.2 in Aug 2012, rebounding to 50.6 in Dec 2012. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013, barely above the neutral frontier at 50.0, recovering to 51.4 in Nov 2013 but falling to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.5 in Jan 2014 and 50.3 in Nov 2014. The index of new orders fell from 54.5 in Apr 2012 to 51.2 in Dec 2012. The index of new orders fell from 52.3 in Nov 2013 to 52.0 in Dec 2013. The index fell to 50.9 in Jan 2014 and moved to 50.9 in Nov 2014.

Table CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted

	IPM	PI	NOI	INV	EMP	SDEL
Nov 2014	50.3	52.5	50.9	47.7	48.2	50.3
Oct	50.8	53.1	51.6	48.4	48.4	50.1
Sep	51.1	53.6	52.2	48.8	48.2	50.1
Aug	51.1	53.2	52.5	48.6	48.2	50.0
Jul	51.7	54.2	53.6	49.0	48.3	50.2
Jun	51.0	53.0	52.8	48.0	48.6	50.5
May	50.8	52.8	52.3	48.0	48.2	50.3
Apr	50.4	52.5	51.2	48.1	48.3	50.1
Mar	50.3	52.7	50.6	47.8	48.3	49.8
Feb	50.2	52.6	50.5	47.4	48.0	49.9
Jan	50.5	53.0	50.9	47.8	48.2	49.8
Dec 2013	51.0	53.9	52.0	47.6	48.7	50.5
Nov	51.4	54.5	52.3	47.8	49.6	50.6
Oct	51.4	54.4	52.5	48.6	49.2	50.8
Sep	51.1	52.9	52.8	48.5	49.1	50.8
Aug	51.0	52.6	52.4	48.0	49.3	50.4
Jul	50.3	52.4	50.6	47.6	49.1	50.1
Jun	50.1	52.0	50.4	47.4	48.7	50.3
May	50.8	53.3	51.8	47.6	48.8	50.8
Apr	50.6	52.6	51.7	47.5	49.0	50.8
Mar	50.9	52.7	52.3	47.5	49.8	51.1
Feb	50.1	51.2	50.1	49.5	47.6	48.3
Jan	50.4	51.3	51.6	50.1	47.8	50.0
Dec 2012	50.6	52.0	51.2	47.3	49.0	48.8
Nov	50.6	52.5	51.2	47.9	48.7	49.9
Oct	50.2	52.1	50.4	47.3	49.2	50.1
Sep	49.8	51.3	49.8	47.0	48.9	49.5
Aug	49.2	50.9	48.7	45.1	49.1	50.0
Jul	50.1	51.8	49.0	48.5	49.5	49.0
Jun	50.2	52.0	49.2	48.2	49.7	49.1
May	50.4	52.9	49.8	45.1	50.5	49.0
Apr	53.3	57.2	54.5	48.5	51.0	49.6
Mar	53.1	55.2	55.1	49.5	51.0	48.9
Feb	51.0	53.8	51.0	48.8	49.5	50.3
Jan	50.5	53.6	50.4	49.7	47.1	49.7

IPM: Index of Purchasing Managers; PI: Production Index; NOI: New Orders Index; EMP: Employed Person Index; SDEL: Supplier Delivery Time Index

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

China estimates the manufacturing index of purchasing managers on the basis of a sample of 820 enterprises (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Chart CIPMMFG provides the manufacturing index of purchasing managers. The index fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013. The index decreased from 51.4 in Nov 2013 to 51.0 in Dec 2013. The index moved to 50.3 in Nov 2014.

Chart CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Cumulative growth of China’s GDP in IIIQ2014 relative to the same period in 2013 was 7.4 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDP. Secondary industry accounts for 44.2 percent of cumulative GDP in IIIQ2014. In cumulative IIIQ2014, industry alone accounts for 37.4 percent of GDP and construction with the remaining 6.8 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 46.7 percent of cumulative GDP in IIIQ2014 and primary industry for 9.0 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is shifting to lower growth rates with improvement in living standards. The bottom block of Table VC-GDP provides quarter-on-quarter growth rates of GDP and their annual equivalent. China’s GDP growth decelerated significantly from annual equivalent 10.4 percent in IIQ2011 to 7.4 percent in IVQ2011 and 5.7 percent in IQ2012, rebounding to 8.7 percent in IIQ2012, 8.2 percent in IIIQ2012 and 7.8 percent in IVQ2012. Annual equivalent growth in IQ2013 fell to 6.6 percent and to 7.3 percent in IIQ2013, rebounding to 9.5 percent in IIIQ2013. Annual equivalent growth was 7.0 percent in IVQ2013, declining to 6.1 percent in IQ2014 and increasing to 8.2 percent in IIQ2014. Annual equivalent growth slowed to 7.8 percent in IIIQ2014.

Table VC-GDP, China, Quarterly Growth of GDP, Current CNY 100 Million and Inflation Adjusted ∆%

Cumulative GDP IIIQ2014	Value Current CNY Billion	2014 Year-on-Year Constant Prices ∆%
GDP	41,990.8	7.4
Primary Industry	3799.6	4.2
Farming	3799.6	4.2
Secondary Industry	18,578.7	7.4
Industry	15,705.7	7.1
Construction	2873.0	9.0
Tertiary Industry	19,612.5	7.9
Transport, Storage, Post	2337.0	7.0
Wholesale, Retail Trades	3893.0	9.7
Hotel & Catering Services	847.6	6.2
Financial Intermediation	2965.5	9.1
Real Estate	2641.4	2.3
Other	6928.0	9.0
Growth in Quarter Relative to Prior Quarter	∆% on Prior Quarter	∆% Annual Equivalent
2014
IIIQ2014	1.9	7.8
IIQ2014	2.0	8.2
IQ2014	1.5	6.1
2013
IVQ2013	1.7	7.0
IIIQ2013	2.3	9.5
IIQ2013	1.8	7.4
IQ2013	1.6	6.6
2012
IVQ2012	1.9	7.8
IIIQ2012	2.0	8.2
IIQ2012	2.1	8.7
IQ2012	1.4	5.7
2011
IVQ2011	1.8	7.4
IIIQ2011	2.2	9.1
IIQ2011	2.5	10.4
IQ2011	2.3	9.5

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Growth of China’s GDP in IIIQ2014 relative to the same period in 2013 was 7.3 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDPA. Secondary industry accounts for 44.2 percent of GDP of which industry alone for 37.4 percent in cumulative IIIQ2014 and construction with the remaining 6.8 percent. Tertiary industry accounts for 46.7 percent of GDP in cumulative IIQ2014 and primary industry for 9.0 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The strategy is changing to lower growth rates while improving living standards. GDP growth decelerated from 12.1 percent in IQ2010 and 11.2 percent in IIQ2010 to 7.7 percent in IQ2013, 7.5 percent in IIQ2013 and 7.8 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP grew 7.7 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier and 1.7 percent relative to IIIQ2013, which is equivalent to 7.0 percent per year. GDP grew 7.4 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 1.5 percent in IQ2014 that is equivalent to 6.1 percent per year. GP grew 7.5 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier and 2.0 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is equivalent 8.2 percent. In IIIQ2014, GDP grew 7.3 percent relative to a year earlier and 1.9 percent relative to the prior quarter, which is 7.8 percent in annual equivalent.

Table VC-GDPA, China, Growth Rate of GDP, ∆% Relative to a Year Earlier and ∆% Relative to Prior Quarter

	IQ 2013	IIQ 2013	IIIQ 2013	IVQ 2013	IQ 2014	IIQ 2014	IIIQ 2014
GDP	7.7	7.5	7.8	7.7	7.4	7.5	7.3
Primary Industry	3.4	3.0	3.4	4.0	3.5	3.9	4.2
Secondary Industry	7.8	7.6	7.8	7.8	7.3	7.4	7.4
Tertiary Industry	8.3	8.3	8.4	8.3	7.1	8.0	7.9
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	1.6	1.8	2.3	1.7	1.5	2.0	1.9
	IQ 2011	IIQ 2011	IIIQ 2011	IVQ 2011	IQ  2012	IIQ 2012	IIIQ 2012	IVQ 2012
GDP	9.7	9.5	9.1	8.9	8.1	7.6	7.4	7.9
Primary Industry	3.5	3.2	3.8	4.5	3.8	4.3	4.2	4.5
Secondary Industry	11.1	11.0	10.8	10.6	9.1	8.3	8.1	8.1
Tertiary Industry	9.1	9.2	9.0	8.9	7.5	7.7	7.9	8.1
GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter	2.3	2.5	2.2	1.8	1.4	2.1	2.0	1.9
	IQ 2010	IIQ 2010	IIIQ 2010	IVQ 2010
GDP	12.1	11.2	10.7	12.1
Primary Industry	3.8	3.6	4.0	3.8
Secondary Industry	14.5	13.3	12.6	14.5
Tertiary Industry	10.5	9.9	9.7	10.5

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart VC-GDP of the National Bureau of Statistics of China provides annual value and growth rates of GDP. China’s GDP growth in 2013 is still high at 7.7 percent but at the lowest rhythm in five years.

Chart VC-GDP, China, Gross Domestic Product, Million Yuan and ∆%, 2009-2013

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Chart VC-FXR provides China’s foreign exchange reserves. FX reserves grew from $2399.2 billion in 2009 to $3821.3 billion in 2013 driven by high growth of China’s trade surplus.

Chart VC-FXR, China, Foreign Exchange Reserves, 2009-2013

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

Chart VC-Trade provides China’s imports and exports. Exports exceeded imports with resulting large trade balance surpluses that increased foreign exchange reserves.

Chart VC-Trade, China, Imports and Exports of Goods, 2009-2013, $100 Million US Dollars

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english

The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™) compiled by Markit (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/67d6ee4cd3ee41c3b8cc48eb1e6d1bb2) is weakening. The overall Flash HSBC China Manufacturing PMI^™ decreased from 50.4 in Oct to 50.4 in Nov, while the Flash HSBC China Manufacturing Output Index decreased from 50.7 in Oct to 49.5 in Nov, indicating moderate stress. Exports orders indicate expansion at slower rate. Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds need for monetary/fiscal stimulus (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/67d6ee4cd3ee41c3b8cc48eb1e6d1bb2). The HSBC China Services PMI^™, compiled by Markit, shows the HSBC Composite Output, combining manufacturing and services, decreasing from 51.7 in Oct to 51.1 in Nov (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/81ccf5b34a7747ab9386ee55a13b09ac). Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds need of easing policies in consolidating growth (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/81ccf5b34a7747ab9386ee55a13b09ac). The HSBC China Services Business Activity index increased from 52.9 in Oct to 53.0 in Nov (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/81ccf5b34a7747ab9386ee55a13b09ac). Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds that the services PMI shows sustained activity (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/81ccf5b34a7747ab9386ee55a13b09ac). The HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index^™ (PMI^™), compiled by Markit, decreased to 50.0 in Nov from 50.4 in Oct, indicating near neutral manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/3858794024174e71a8c0d88ee410a40c). New export orders slowed. Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds weakening demand in China with possible need of monetary and fiscal policy enhancement (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/3858794024174e71a8c0d88ee410a40c). Table CNY provides the country data table for China.

Table CNY, China, Economic Indicators

Price Indexes for Industry	Nov 12-month ∆%: minus 2.7 Nov month ∆%: -0.5 Blog 12/14/14
Consumer Price Index	Nov month ∆%: -0.2 Nov 12 months ∆%: 1.4 Blog 12/14/14
Value Added of Industry	Sep month ∆%: 0.91 Jan-Sep 2014/Jan-Sep 2013 ∆%: 8.5 Blog 10/26/14
GDP Growth Rate	Year IIIQ2014 ∆%: 7.5 First Three Quarters 2014 ∆%: 7.3 Quarter IIQ2014 AE ∆%: 7.8 Blog 10/26/14
Investment in Fixed Assets	Total Jan-Sep 2014 ∆%: 16.1 Real estate development: 12.5 Blog 10/26/14
Retail Sales	Sep month ∆%: 0.85 Sep 12 month ∆%: 11.6 Jan-Sep ∆%: 12.0 Blog 10/26/14
Trade Balance	Nov balance $54.5 billion Exports 12M ∆% 4.7 Imports 12M ∆% -6.7 Cumulative Jan-Nov: $332.5 billion Blog 12/14/14

Links to blog comments in Table CNY:

10/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/financial-oscillations-world-inflation.html

Table VC-1 provides China’s exports, imports, trade balance and 12-month percentage changes from Dec 2010 to Nov 2014. The trade surplus of China was $54.5 billion in Nov 2014 with exports growing 4.7 percent in 12 months and imports falling 6.7 percent. The trade surplus of China in Oct 2014 was $45.4 billion with exports increasing 11.6 percent in 12 months and imports 4.6 percent. The trade surplus of China in Sep 2014 was $31.0 billion with exports growing 15.3 percent relative to a year earlier and imports increasing 7.0 percent. China’s trade surplus rose to $49.8 billion in Aug 2014 with 12-month growth of exports of 9.4 percent and decline of 2.4 percent of imports in 12 months. The trade surplus of China jumped to $47.3 billion in Jul 2014 with growth of exports by 14.5 percent and decrease of imports by 1.6 percent. China’s trade surplus decreased to $31.6 billion in Jun 2014 with growth of exports of 7.2 percent and of 5.5 percent of imports. The trade surplus of China increased to $35.92 billion in May 2014 with growth of exports of 7.0 percent relative to a year earlier and decline of imports by 1.6 percent. The trade surplus of China increased to $18.45 billion in Apr 2014 with growth of exports of 0.9 percent relative to a year earlier and of imports of 0.8 percent. China had a trade surplus of $7.71 billion in Mar 2014 with exports declining 6.6 percent in 12 months and imports decreasing 11.3 percent. China had a rare trade deficit of $22.99 billion in Feb 2014 with exports decreasing 18.1 percent in 12 months while imports increased 10.1 percent. Exports increased 10.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2014 and imports 10.0 percent for trade surplus of $31.87 billion. Exports increased 4.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013 while imports increased 8.3 percent for trade surplus of $25.64 billion. Exports surged 12.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2013 while imports increased 5.3 percent for trade surplus of $33.8 billion. Exports rebounded with growth of 5.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2013 while imports increased 7.6 percent for trade surplus of $31.11 billion. Exports fell 0.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2013 while imports increased 7.4 for reduction of the trade surplus to $15.2 billion. Markets reacted positively to China’s trade data in Aug 2013 with exports growing 7.2 percent relative to a year earlier and imports 7.0 percent for increasing trade surplus of $28.52. Exports increased 5.1 in Jul 2013 and imports 10.9 percent for trade surplus of $17.82 billion. Exports fell 3.1 percent in Jun 2013 and imports declined 0.7 percent. The trade surplus reached $27.12 billion. Exports increased 1.0 percent in May 2013 relative to a year earlier while imports fell 0.3 percent with trade surplus of $20.43 billion. Exports increased 14.7 percent in Apr 2013 relative to a year earlier and imports 16.8 percent for trade surplus of $18.16 billion. Exports increased 10.0 percent in Mar 2013 relative to a year earlier and imports increased 14.1 percent for trade deficit of $0.88 billion. Exports increased 21.8 percent in Feb 2013 relative to a year earlier and imports fell 15.2 percent for trade surplus of $15.25 billion. China’s trade growth was stronger in Jan 2013 with growth of exports of 25.0 percent in 12 months and of imports of 28.8 percent for trade surplus of $29.15 billion. China’s trade growth strengthened in Dec 2012 with growth in 12 months of exports of 14.1 percent and of imports of 6.0 percent. China’s trade growth weakened again in Nov 2012 with growth of exports of 2.9 percent and no change in imports. China’s trade growth rebounded with growth of exports in 12 months of 11.6 percent in Oct 2012 and 9.9 percent in Sep 2012 after 2.7 percent in Aug 2012 and 1.0 percent in Jul 2012 while imports grew 2.4 percent in both Sep and Oct 2012, stagnating in Nov 2012. As a result, the monthly trade surplus increased from $25.2 billion in Jul 2012 to $31.9 billion in Oct 2012, declining to $19.6 billion in Nov 2012 but increasing to $31.62 billion in Dec 2012. China’s trade growth rebounded in Oct 2012 with growth of exports of 11.6 percent in 12 months and 2.4 percent for imports and trade surplus of $31.9 billion. The number that caught attention in financial markets was growth of 1.0 percent in exports in the 12 months ending in Jul 2012. Imports were also weak, growing 4.7 percent in 12 months ending in Jul 2012. Exports increased 11.3 percent in Jun 2012 relative to a year earlier while imports grew 6.3 percent. The rate of growth of exports fell to 4.9 percent in Apr 2012 relative to a year earlier and imports increased 0.3 percent but export growth was 15.3 percent in May and imports increased 12.7 percent. China reversed the large trade deficit of USD 31.48 billion in Feb 2012 with a surplus of $5.35 billion in Mar 2012, $18.42 billion in Apr 2012, $18.7 billion in May 2012, $31.7 billion in Jun 2012, $25.2 billion in Jul 2012, $26.7 billion in Aug 2012, $27.7 billion in Sep 2012, $31.9 billion in Oct 2012 and $19.6 billion in Nov 2012. Exports fell 0.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2012 while imports fell 15.3 percent for a still sizeable trade surplus of $27.3 billion. In Feb 2012, exports increased 18.4 percent while imports jumped 39.6 percent for a sizeable deficit of $31.48 billion. There are distortions from the Lunar New Year holidays.

Table VC-1, China, Exports, Imports and Trade Balance USD Billion and ∆%

	Exports USD Billion	∆% Relative Year Earlier	Imports USD Billion	∆% Relative Year Earlier	Balance USD Billion
Nov 2014	211.66	4.7	157.19	-6.7	54.5
Oct	206.86	11.6	161.46	4.6	45.4
Sep	213.7	15.3	182.7	7.0	31.0
Aug	208.5	9.4	158.6	-2.4	49.8
Jul	212.9	14.5	165.6	-1.6	47.3
Jun	186.8	7.2	155.2	5.5	31.6
May	195.47	7.0	159.55	-1.6	35.92
Apr	188.54	0.9	170.09	0.8	18.45
Mar	170.11	-6.6	162.40	-11.3	7.71
Feb	114.09	-18.1	137.08	10.1	-22.99
Jan	207.13	10.6	175.26	10.0	31.87
Dec 2013	207.74	4.3	182.10	8.3	25.64
Nov	202.20	12.7	168.40	5.3	33.8
Oct	185.41	5.6	154.30	7.6	31.11
Sep	185.64	-0.3	170.44	7.4	15.21
Aug	190.61	7.2	162.09	7.0	28.52
Jul	185.99	5.1	168.17	10.9	17.82
Jun	174.32	-3.1	147.19	-0.7	27.12
May	182.77	1.0	162.34	-0.3	20.43
Apr	187.06	14.7	168.90	16.8	18.16
Mar	182.19	10.0	183.07	14.1	-0.88
Feb	139.37	21.8	124.12	-15.2	15.25
Jan	187.37	25.0	158.22	28.8	29.15
Dec 2012	199.23	14.1	167.61	6.0	31.62
Nov	179.38	2.9	159.75	0.0	19.63
Oct	175.57	11.6	143.58	2.4	31.99
Sep	186.35	9.9	158.68	2.4	27.67
Aug	177.97	2.7	151.31	-2.6	26.66
Jul	176.94	1.0	151.79	4.7	25.15
Jun	180.20	11.3	148.48	6.3	31.72
May	181.14	15.3	162.44	12.7	18.70
Apr	163.25	4.9	144.83	0.3	18.42
Mar	165.66	8.9	160.31	5.3	5.35
Feb	114.47	18.4	145.95	39.6	-31.48
Jan	149.94	-0.5	122.66	-15.3	27.28
Dec 2011	174.72	13.4	158.20	11.8	16.52
Nov	174.46	13.8	159.94	22.1	14.53
Oct	157.49	15.9	140.46	28.7	17.03
Sep	169.67	17.1	155.16	20.9	14.51
Aug	173.32	24.5	155.56	30.2	17.76
Jul	175.13	20.4	143.64	22.9	31.48
Jun	161.98	17.9	139.71	19.3	22.27
May	157.16	19.4	144.11	28.4	13.05
Apr	155.69	29.9	144.26	21.8	11.42
Mar	152.20	35.8	152.06	27.3	0.14
Feb	96.74	2.4	104.04	19.4	-7.31
Jan	150.73	37.7	144.27	51.0	6.46
Dec 2010	154.15	17.9	141.07	25.6	13.08

Source: Ministry of Commerce, People’s Republic of China

http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/article/statistic/BriefStatistics/

Table VC-2 provides cumulative exports, imports and the trade balance of China together with percentage growth of exports and imports relative to a year earlier. Exports increased 5.7 percent cumulatively in Jan-Oct 2014 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 0.9 percent for cumulative trade surplus of $332.5 billion. Exports increased 5.8 percent cumulatively in Jan-Oct 2014 relative to a year while earlier while imports increased 1.8 percent for cumulative trade surplus of $277.0 billion. Exports increased 5.1 percent cumulatively in Jan-Sep 2014 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 1.3 percent for cumulative trade surplus of $231.6 billion. Exports grew 3.8 percent cumulatively in Jan-Aug 2014 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 1.6 percent for cumulative surplus of $200 billion. Exports increased 2.9 percent in the cumulative Jan-July 2014 relative to a year earlier and imports 1.1 percent for cumulative surplus of $150.6 billion. Exports increased 0.9 percent in Jan-Jun 2014 relative to a year earlier and imports increased 1.5 percent for cumulative surplus of $102.7 billion. Exports fell 0.4 percent in Jan-May 2014 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 0.8 percent for cumulative surplus of $71.11 billion. Exports fell 2.3 percent in Jan-Apr 2014 relative to the same period a year earlier and imports increased 1.5 percent for cumulative trade surplus of $35.19 billion.

Exports fell 3.4 percent in Jan-Mar 2014 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 1.6 percent for cumulative surplus of $16.74 billion. Exports fell 1.6 percent and imports increased 10.0 percent for cumulative surplus of $8.88 billion in Jan-Feb 2014. Exports increased 10.6 percent in Jan 2014 and imports 10.0 percent for cumulative surplus of $31.87 billion. Exports increased 7.9 percent in Jan-Dec 2013 relative to the same period a year earlier while imports increased 7.3 percent for cumulative surplus of $259.75 billion. Exports grew 8.3 percent in Jan-Nov 2013 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 7.1 percent for cumulative surplus of $234.15 billion. Exports grew 7.8 percent in Jan-Oct 2013 relative to a year earlier while imports grew 7.3 percent for cumulative trade surplus of $200.46 billion. Exports increased 8.0 percent in Jan-Sep 2013 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 7.3 percent for cumulative surplus of $169.36 billion. Exports increased 9.2 percent in in Jan-Aug 2013 relative to a year earlier and imports 7.3 percent for trade surplus of $154.21 billion. Exports grew 9.5 percent in Jul 2013 relative to a year earlier and imports 7.3 percent with cumulative surplus of $125.71 billion. Exports increased 10.4 percent cumulatively in Jun 2013 and imports 6.7 for cumulative surplus of $107.95 billion. Exports increased 13.5 percent in Jan-May 2013 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 8.2 percent for cumulative surplus of $80.87 billion. Exports increased 17.4 percent in Jan-Apr 2012 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 10.6 percent for cumulative surplus of $60.98 billion. Exports increased 18.4 percent in Jan-Mar 2013 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 8.4 percent for cumulative surplus of $43.07 billion. Cumulative exports in Jan-Feb 2013 grew 23.6 percent relative to a year earlier and imports 5.0 percent for trade surplus of $44.15 billion. There is strong beginning of 2013 with trade surplus of $29.15 in Jan 2013 and growth of exports of 25.0 percent and imports of 28.8 percent. The trade balance of $231.1 billion in 2012 is stronger than the trade balance of $155.14 billion in 2011. The trade balance in 2011 of $155.14 billion is lower than those from 2008 to 2010. China’s trade balance reached $231.1 billion in Jan-Dec 2012 with cumulative growth of exports of 7.9 percent and 4.3 percent of imports, which is much lower than 20.3 percent for exports and 24.9 percent for imports in 2011 and 31.3 percent for exports and 38.7 percent for imports in 2010. There is a rare cumulative deficit of $4.2 billion in Feb 2012 reversed to a small surplus in Mar 2012 and a higher surplus of $19.3 billion in Apr 2012, increasing to $37.9 billion in May, $68.9 billion in Jun 2012, $94.1 billion in Jul 2012, $120.6 billion in Aug 2012, $148.3 billion in Sep 2012, $180.24 billion in Oct 2012, $199.54 billion in Nov 2012 and $231.1 billion in Dec 2012. More observations are required to detect trends of Chinese trade.

Table VC-2, China, Year to Date Exports, Imports and Trade Balance USD Billion and ∆%

	Exports USD Billion	∆% Relative Year Earlier	Imports USD Billion	∆% Relative Year Earlier	Balance USD Billion
Nov 2014	2115.7	5.7	1784.9	0.9	332.5
Oct	1904.1	5.8	1627.8	1.8	277.0
Sep	1697.2	5.1	1466.3	1.3	231.6
Aug	1483.5	3.8	1283.6	0.6	200.0
Jul	1275.0	2.9	1125.0	1.1	150.6
Jun	1062.1	0.9	959.4	1.5	102.7
May	875.32	-0.4	804.21	0.8	71.11
Apr	679.85	-2.3	644.66	1.5	35.19
Mar	491.31	-3.4	474.57	1.6	16.74
Feb	321.23	-1.6	312.35	10.0	8.88
Jan	207.13	10.6	175.26	10.0	31.87
Dec 2013	2210.04	7.9	1950.29	7.3	259.75
Nov	2002.32	8.3	1768.17	7.1	234.15
Oct	1800.21	7.8	1599.75	7.3	200.46
Sep	1614.86	8.0	1445.50	7.3	169.36
Aug	1429.26	9.2	1275.05	7.3	154.21
Jul	1238.73	9.5	1113.02	7.3	125.71
Jun	1052.82	10.4	944.87	6.7	107.95
May	878.56	13.5	797.69	8.2	80.87
Apr	695.87	17.4	634.88	10.6	60.98
Mar	508.87	18.4	465.80	8.4	43.07
Feb	326.73	23.6	282.58	5.0	44.15
Jan	187.37	25.0	158.22	28.8	29.15
Dec 2012	2048.93	7.9	1817.83	4.3	231.11
Nov	1849.91	7.3	1650.37	4.1	199.54
Oct	1670.90	7.8	1490.67	4.6	180.24
Sep	1495.39	7.4	1347.08	4.8	148.31
Aug	1309.11	7.1	1188.51	5.1	120.61
Jul	1131.24	7.8	1037.14	6.4	94.10
Jun	954.38	9.2	885.46	6.7	68.91
May	774.40	8.7	736.49	6.7	37.92
Apr	593.24	6.9	573.94	5.1	19.3
Mar	430.02	7.6	429.36	6.6	0.66
Feb	264.40	6.9	268.64	7.7	-4.24
Jan	149.94	-0.5	122.66	-15.3	27.28
Dec 2011	1,898.60	20.3	1,743.46	24.9	155.14
Nov	1,724.01	21.1	1585.61	26.4	138.40
Oct	1,549.71	22.0	1,425.68	26.9	124.03
Sep	1,392.27	22.7	1,285.17	26.7	107.10
Aug	1,222.63	23.6	1,129.90	27.5	92.73
Jul	1,049.38	23.4	973.17	26.9	76.21
Jun	874.3	24.0	829.37	27.6	44.93
May	712.37	25.5	689.41	29.4	22.96
Apr	555.30	27.4	545.02	29.6	10.28
Mar	399.64	26.5	400.66	32.6	-1.02
Feb	247.47	21.3	248.36	36.0	-0.89
Jan	150.7	37.7	144.27	51.0	6.46
Dec 2010	1577.93	31.3	1394.83	38.7	183.10

Source: Ministry of Commerce, People’s Republic of China

http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/article/statistic/BriefStatistics/

VD Euro Area. Table VD-EUR provides yearly growth rates of the combined GDP of the members of the European Monetary Union (EMU) or euro area since 1996. Growth was very strong at 3.3 percent in 2006 and 3.0 percent in 2007. The global recession had strong impact with growth of only 0.4 percent in 2008 and decline of 4.4 percent in 2009. Recovery was at lower growth rates of 2.0 percent in 2010 and 1.6 percent in 2011. EUROSTAT estimates growth of GDP of the euro area of minus 0.7 percent in 2012 and minus 0.4 percent in 2013 but 1.1 percent in 2014 and 1.7 percent in 2015.

Table VD-EUR, Euro Area, Yearly Percentage Change of Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, Unemployment and GDP ∆%

Year	HICP ∆%	Unemployment %	GDP ∆%
1999	1.2	9.6	2.9
2000	2.2	8.8	3.8
2001	2.4	8.2	2.0
2002	2.3	8.5	0.9
2003	2.1	9.0	0.7
2004	2.2	9.2	2.2
2005	2.2	9.1	1.7
2006	2.2	8.4	3.3
2007	2.2	7.5	3.0
2008	3.3	7.6	0.4
2009	0.3	9.6	-4.5
2010	1.6	10.1	1.9
2011	2.7	10.1	1.6
2012	2.5	11.3	-0.7
2013*	1.3	12.0	-0.4
2014*			1.1
2015*			1.7

*EUROSTAT forecast Source: EUROSTAT

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database

The GDP of the euro area in 2012 in current US dollars in the dataset of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is $12,199.1 billion or 16.9 percent of world GDP of $72,216.4 billion (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/02/weodata/index.aspx). The sum of the GDP of France $2613.9 billion with the GDP of Germany of $3429.5 billion, Italy of $2014.1 billion and Spain $1323.5 billion is $9381.0 billion or 76.9 percent of total euro area GDP and 13.0 percent of World GDP. The four largest economies account for slightly more than three quarters of economic activity of the euro area. Table VD-EUR1 is constructed with the dataset of EUROSTAT, providing growth rates of the euro area as a whole and of the largest four economies of Germany, France, Italy and Spain annually from 1996 to 2011 with the estimate of 2012 and forecasts for 2013, 2014 and 2015 by EUROSTAT. The impact of the global recession on the overall euro area economy and on the four largest economies was quite strong. There was sharp contraction in 2009 and growth rates have not rebounded to earlier growth with exception of Germany in 2010 and 2011.

Table VD-EUR1, Euro Area, Real GDP Growth Rate, ∆%

	Euro Area	Germany	France	Italy	Spain
2015*	1.7	1.9	1.7	1.2	1.7
2014*	1.1	1.7	0.9	0.7	0.5
2013*	-0.4	0.4	0.2	-1.9	-1.2
2012	-0.7	0.7	0.0	-2.4	-1.6
2011	1.6	3.3	2.0	0.4	0.1
2010	1.9	4.0	1.7	1.7	-0.2
2009	-4.5	-5.1	-3.1	-5.5	-3.8
2008	0.4	1.1	-0.1	-1.2	0.9
2007	3.0	3.3	2.3	1.7	3.5
2006	3.3	3.7	2.5	2.2	4.1
2005	1.7	0.7	1.8	0.9	3.6
2004	2.2	1.2	2.5	1.7	3.3
2003	0.7	-0.4	0.9	0.0	3.1
2002	0.9	0.0	0.9	0.5	2.7
2001	2.0	1.5	1.8	1.9	3.7
2000	3.8	3.1	3.7	3.7	5.0
1999	2.9	1.9	3.3	1.5	4.7
1998	2.8	1.9	3.4	1.4	4.5
1997	2.6	1.7	2.2	1.9	3.9
1996	1.5	0.8	1.1	1.1	2.5

Source: EUROSTAT

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database

The Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index of the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI^®, combining activity in manufacturing and services, decreased from 52.1 in Oct to 51.4 in Nov (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d5ed8bd5aad54a8f97d57072f87f0aab). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds that the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI index suggests GDP growth around 0.1 to 0.2 percent in IVQ2014 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d5ed8bd5aad54a8f97d57072f87f0aab). The Markit Eurozone PMI^® Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing activity with close association with GDP decreased from 52.1 in Oct to 51.1 in Nov (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b7b53af9b6f94a8b8c83172ba9c9bc55). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds slowing growth of GDP at around 0.1 percent in IVQ2014 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b7b53af9b6f94a8b8c83172ba9c9bc55). The Markit Eurozone Services Business Activity Index decreased from 52.3 in Oct to 52.1 in Nov (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/01d8b102223d449881e2878c1544c892). The Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI^® decreased to 50.1 in Nov from 50.6 in Oct (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/63f18b46a2ce43ce93fe8798d9790d9e). New export orders moderated. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds slowing industrial growth in the euro area with contractions in major economies (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/63f18b46a2ce43ce93fe8798d9790d9e). Table EUR provides the data table for the euro area.

Table EUR, Euro Area Economic Indicators

GDP	IIIQ2014 ∆% 0.2; IIIQ2014/IIIQ2013 ∆% 0.8 Blog 12/7/14
Unemployment	Oct 2014: 11.5 % unemployment rate; Oct 2014: 18.347 million unemployed Blog 11/30/14
HICP	Oct month ∆%: -0.1 12 months Sep ∆%: 0.4 Blog 11/16/14
Producer Prices	Euro Zone industrial producer prices Oct ∆%: -0.4 Sep 12-month ∆%: -1.3 Blog 12/7/14
Industrial Production	Oct month ∆%: 0.1; Oct 12 months ∆%: 0.7 Blog 12/14/14
Retail Sales	Oct month ∆%: 0.4 Oct 12 months ∆%: 1.4 Blog 12/7/14
Confidence and Economic Sentiment Indicator	Sentiment 100.8 Nov 2014 Consumer minus 11.6 Nov 2014 Blog 11/30/14
Trade	Jan-Aug 2014/Jan-Aug 2013 Exports ∆%: 0.8 Imports ∆%: -0.2 Aug 2014 12-month Exports ∆% -2.8 Imports ∆% -4.4 Blog 10/19/14

Links to blog comments in Table EUR:

12/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/financial-risks-twenty-six-million.html

11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

10/19/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/imf-view-squeeze-of-economic-activity.html

Table VD-1 provides monthly industrial production percentage changes for total production and major segments in the euro area. Total production increased 0.1 percent in Oct 2014 with increase of 0.9 percent in durable goods and decrease of 1.9 percent in energy. Capital goods decreased 0.2 percent. Nondurable goods increased 1.8 percent and intermediate goods increased 0.3 percent. Industrial production increased in all months from Dec 2012 to Jun 2013 with exception of declines of 1.1 percent in May 2013 and 0.4 percent in Mar 2013. Industrial production changed 0.0 percent in Feb 2014, increasing 0.5 percent in Sep 2014.

Table VD-1, Euro Zone, Industrial Production Month ∆%

	Total	INT	ENE	CG	DUR	NDUR
Oct 2014	0.1	0.3	-1.9	-0.2	0.9	1.8
Sep	0.5	-0.3	0.6	2.2	-1.5	-0.6
Aug	-1.1	-1.1	1.7	-3.3	-0.5	0.2
Jul	0.7	0.9	-1.6	1.9	-0.9	0.8
Jun	-0.4	0.3	-1.1	0.2	1.8	-2.2
May	-1.0	-2.0	2.9	-0.6	-2.2	-1.7

Notes: INT: Intermediate; ENE: Energy; CG: Capital Goods; DUR: Durable Consumer Goods; NDUR: Nondurable Consumer Goods

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

Table VD-2 provides monthly and 12-month percentage changes of industrial production and major industrial categories in the euro zone. Some 12-month percentage changes in Table VD-2 are negative in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014 with exception of increase of 3.7 percent in nondurable consumer goods, 1.4 percent in capital goods and 0.2 percent in durable consumer goods. Industrial production increased 0.1 percent in the month of Oct 2014 and increased 0.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014.

Table VD-2, Euro Zone, Industrial Production, Month and 12-Month ∆%

2014	Oct Month ∆%	Oct 12-Month ∆%
Total	0.1	0.7
Intermediate Goods	0.3	-0.4
Energy	-1.9	-2.5
Capital Goods	-0.2	1.4
Durable Consumer Goods	0.9	0.2
Nondurable Consumer Goods	1.8	3.7

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

There has been significant decline in percentage changes of industrial production and major categories in 12-month rates into 2012 and 2013 with recovery in 2014, as shown in Table VD-3. Negative percentage changes moderated from the high rates in Oct-Nov 2012 with return to growth. All 12-month percentage changes are negative for the various segments of euro area industrial production from May to Aug 2013 with exception of capital goods in Jun but there is improvement in Sep to Dec 2013 and Jan 2014 with positive 12-month percentage changes for total industry. There is significant improvement in 2014 with growth of 1.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb with deterioration to 0.3 percent in Mar 2014 and rebound of 1.9 percent in Apr 2014. The growth rate of industrial production in 12 months slowed to 0.7 percent in May 2014 and 0.2 percent in Jun 2014. Industrial production increased 1.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2014 and fell 0.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014. Industrial production increased 0.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2014 and 0.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014. Output of capital goods increased 2.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2014 but only 1.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014, increasing to 1.4 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2014. Output of capital goods grew 0.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2014 and increased 4.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2014. Output of capital goods fell 2.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014, increasing 1.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2014 and 1.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014. Output of intermediate goods increased 0.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2014 and 1.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2014. Output of intermediate goods fell 0.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2014 and fell 0.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014.

Table VD-3, Euro Zone, Industrial Production 12-Month ∆%

	Total	INT	ENE	CG	DUR	NDUR
Oct 2014	0.7	-0.4	-2.5	1.4	0.2	3.7
Sep	0.2	-0.5	-2.9	1.5	-4.0	1.7
Aug	-0.6	0.0	-3.0	-2.2	-2.1	2.8
Jul	1.6	1.4	-5.0	4.0	-1.9	2.6
Jun	0.2	0.3	-3.9	0.3	-2.0	2.4
May	0.7	0.4	-3.4	1.4	-1.3	3.2

Notes: INT: Intermediate; ENE: Energy; CG: Capital Goods; DUR: Durable Consumer Goods; NDUR: Nondurable Consumer Goods

Source: EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

VE Germany. Table VE-DE provides yearly growth rates of the German economy from 1971 to 2013, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked. Germany’s GDP fell 5.6 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.1 percent in 2008. Recovery has been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.1 percent in 2010, 3.6 percent in 2011 and 0.4 percent in 2012. Growth decelerated to 0.1 percent in 2013.

The Federal Statistical Agency of Germany analyzes the fall and recovery of the German economy (http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Content/Statistics/VolkswirtschaftlicheGesamtrechnungen/Inlandsprodukt/Aktuell,templateId=renderPrint.psml):

“The German economy again grew strongly in 2011. The price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.0% compared with the previous year. Accordingly, the catching-up process of the German economy continued during the second year after the economic crisis. In the course of 2011, the price-adjusted GDP again exceeded its pre-crisis level. The economic recovery occurred mainly in the first half of 2011. In 2009, Germany experienced the most serious post-war recession, when GDP suffered a historic decline of 5.1%. The year 2010 was characterised by a rapid economic recovery (+3.7%).”

Table VE-4 provides annual growth rates of the German economy from 1970 to 2013, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked. Germany’s GDP fell 5.6 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.1 percent in 2008. Recovery has been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.1 percent in 2010, 3.6 percent in 2011 and 0.4 percent in 2012. Growth in 2013 was 0.1 percent.

Table VE-DE, Germany, GDP ∆% on Prior Year

	Price Adjusted Chain-Linked	Price- and Calendar-Adjusted Chain Linked
Average ∆% 1991-2013	1.3
Average ∆% 1991-1999	1.5
Average ∆% 2000-2007	1.4
Average ∆% 2003-2007	2.2
Average ∆% 2007-2013	0.5
Average ∆% 2009-2013	2.0
2013	0.1	0.2
2012	0.4	0.6
2011	3.6	3.7
2010	4.1	3.9
2009	-5.6	-5.6
2008	1.1	0.8
2007	3.3	3.4
2006	3.7	3.9
2005	0.7	0.9
2004	1.2	0.7
2003	-0.7	-0.7
2002	0.0	0.0
2001	1.7	1.8
2000	3.0	3.2
1999	2.0	1.9
1998	2.0	1.7
1997	1.8	1.9
1996	0.8	0.8
1995	1.7	1.8
1994	2.5	2.5
1993	-1.0	-1.0
1992	1.9	1.5
1991	5.1	5.2
1990	5.3	5.5
1989	3.9	4.0
1988	3.7	3.4
1987	1.4	1.3
1986	2.3	2.3
1985	2.3	2.3
1984	2.8	2.9
1983	1.6	1.5
1982	-0.4	-0.5
1981	0.5	0.6
1980	1.4	1.3
1979	4.2	4.3
1978	3.0	3.1
1977	3.3	3.5
1976	4.9	4.5
1975	-0.9	-0.9
1974	0.9	1.0
1973	4.8	5.0
1972	4.3	4.3
1971	3.1	3.0
1970	NA	NA

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/NationalAccounts.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/NationalAccounts/DomesticProduct/CurrentRevision.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Methods/NationalAccountRevision/Revision2014_BackgroundPaper.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/02/PE14_048_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/08/PE13_278_811.html https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/11/PE13_381_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/01/PE14_016_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/DE/PresseService/Presse/Pressekonferenzen/2014/BIP2013/Pressebroschuere_BIP2013.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/05/PE14_167_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/09/PE14_306_811.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/11/PE14_401_811.html

The Flash Germany Composite Output Index of the Markit Flash Germany PMI^®, combining manufacturing and services, decreased from 53.9 in Oct to 52.1 in Nov. The index of manufacturing output reached 52.0 in Nov, decreasing from 52.0 in Oct, while the index of services decreased to 52.1 in Nov from 54.4 in Oct. The overall Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI^® decreased from 51.4 in Oct to 50.0 in Nov (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f44b099a010349199847985ca7b98754). New orders in manufacturing contracted. Oliver Kolodseike, Economist at Markit, finds continuing weakness in GDP growth (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f44b099a010349199847985ca7b98754). The Markit Germany Composite Output Index of the Markit Germany Services PMI^®, combining manufacturing and services with close association with Germany’s GDP, decreased from 53.9 in Oct to 51.7 in Nov (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c40864faad5c4d9ebad95744770e6389). Oliver Kolodseike, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds slow growth with risks of contraction in IVQ2014 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c40864faad5c4d9ebad95744770e6389). The Germany Services Business Activity Index decreased from 54.4 in Oct to 52.1 in Nov (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c40864faad5c4d9ebad95744770e6389). The Markit/BME Germany Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®), showing close association with Germany’s manufacturing conditions, decreased from 51.4 in Oct to 49.5 in Nov (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/66c553dd5eeb4d8bae3c46441999bede). New export orders decreased for the first month since Jul 2013 with weakness in demand from China, the US and Europe. Oliver Kolodseike, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds weakness in manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/66c553dd5eeb4d8bae3c46441999bede).

Table DE, Germany, Economic Indicators

GDP	IIIQ2014 0.1 ∆%; III/Q2014/IIIQ2013 ∆% 1.2 2013/2012: 0.1% GDP ∆% 1970-2013 Blog 8/26/12 5/27/12 11/25/12 2/24/13 5/19/13 5/26/13 8/18/13 8/25/13 11/17/13 11/24/13 1/26/14 2/16/14 3/2/14 5/18/14 5/25/14 8/17/14 9/7/14 11/16/14 11/30/14
Consumer Price Index	Nov month NSA ∆%: 0.0 Nov 12-month NSA ∆%: 0.6 Blog 12/14/14
Producer Price Index	Oct month ∆%: -0.2 NSA, minus 0.1 CSA 12-month NSA ∆%: -1.0 Blog 11/23/14
Industrial Production	MFG Oct month CSA ∆%: 0.2 12-month NSA: 1.2 Blog 12/14/14
Machine Orders	MFG Oct month ∆%: 2.5 Oct 12-month ∆%: 2.4 Blog 12/14/14
Retail Sales	Oct Month ∆% 1.9 12-Month ∆% 1.7 Blog 11/30/14
Employment Report	Unemployment Rate SA Oct 4.9% Blog 11/30/14
Trade Balance	Exports Oct 12-month NSA ∆%: 4.9 Imports Oct 12 months NSA ∆%: 0.9 Exports Oct month CSA ∆%: -0.5; Imports Oct month CSA minus -3.1 Blog 12/14/14

Links to blog comments in Table DE:

11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/23/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

9/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/competitive-monetary-policy-and.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

1/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/01/capital-flows-exchange-rates-and.html

11/24/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html

8/18/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/duration-dumping-and-peaking-valuations.html

There is significantly stronger performance of production in Germany with wide monthly fluctuations. The production industries index of Germany in Table VE-1 shows increase of 0.2 percent in Dec 2012 and decrease of 9.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2012. The index decreased 0.5 percent in Jan 2013 and 1.3 percent in 12 months and increased 0.7 percent in Feb 2013, declining 4.9 percent in 12 months. In Mar 2013, the production index of Germany increased 0.9 percent and fell 8.5 percent in 12 months. The production index jumped 0.9 percent in Apr 2013 and 7.5 percent in 12 months. In May 2013, the production index fell 1.1 percent and 4.4 percent in 12 months. The production index of Germany increased 1.9 percent in Jun 2013 and fell 0.4 percent in 12 months. In Jul 2013, the production industries index fell 1.3 percent and increased 1.9 percent in 12 months. The production industries index increased 2.1 percent in Aug 2013 and fell 2.8 percent in 12 months. In Sep 2013, the production index fell 0.8 percent and increased 4.2 percent in 12 months. In Oct 2013, the production index of Germany fell 0.7 percent and increased 1.3 percent in 12 months. The index of production industries increased 1.8 percent in Nov 2013 and 0.4 percent in 12 months. The index of production industries increased 0.1 percent in Dec 2013 and increased 5.9 percent in 12 months. The production industries index increased 0.5 percent in Jan 2014 and 3.3 percent in 12 months. In Feb 2014, the production industries index increased 0.3 percent and 5.8 percent in 12 months. The production industries index fell 0.7 percent in Mar 2014 and increased 4.7 percent relative to a year earlier. The production industries index of Germany changed 0.0 percent in Apr 2014 and fell 1.6 percent in 12 months. The production index fell 1.4 percent in May 2014, increasing 3.9 percent in 12 months. The production index of Germany increased 0.5 percent in Jun 2014 and fell 2.3 percent in 12 months. In Jul 2014, the production industries index of Germany increased 1.0 percent and 2.7 percent in 12 months. The production index of Germany fell 2.3 percent in Aug 2014 and decreased 5.0 percent in 12 months. The production index of Germany increased 1.1 percent in Oct 2014 and 3.6 percent in 12 months. In Oct 2014, the production index of Germany increased 0.2 percent and 0.8 percent in 12 months. Germany’s production industries suffered decline of 7.3 percent in Dec 2008 relative to Dec 2007 and decline of 2.3 percent in 2009. Recovery was vigorous with 17.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2010. The first quarter of 2011 was quite strong when the German economy outperformed the other advanced economies. The performance of Germany’s production industries from 2002 to 2006 was vigorous with average rate of 4.5 percent. Data for the production industries index of Germany fluctuate sharply from month to month and in 12-month rates.

Table VE-1, Germany, Production Industries, Month and 12-Month ∆%

	12-Month ∆% NSA	Month ∆% Calendar SA
Oct 2014	0.8	0.2
Sep	3.6	1.1
Aug	-5.0	-2.3
Jul	2.7	1.0
Jun	-2.3	0.5
May	3.9	-1.4
Apr	-1.6	0.0
Mar	4.7	-0.7
Feb	5.8	0.3
Jan	3.3	0.5
Dec 2013	5.9	0.1
Nov	0.4	1.8
Oct	1.3	-0.7
Sep	4.2	-0.8
Aug	-2.8	2.1
Jul	1.9	-1.3
Jun	-0.4	1.9
May	-4.4	-1.1
Apr	7.5	0.9
Mar	-8.5	0.9
Feb	-4.9	0.7
Jan	-1.3	-0.5
Dec 2012	-9.4	0.2
Nov	-2.9	-0.7
Oct	4.1	-1.3
Sep	-6.7	-1.2
Aug	-0.6	0.0
Jul	2.4	0.8
Jun	4.2	-0.9
May	-6.3	1.6
Apr	-0.6	-2.1
Mar	-0.1	2.2
Feb	2.4	-0.5
Jan	4.8	0.9
Dec 2011	2.0	-1.8
Nov	3.9	-0.3
Oct	0.1	1.3
Sep	4.5	-1.8
Aug	10.2	-0.5
Jul	5.8	2.9
Jun	-0.8	-1.6
May	18.2	0.8
Apr	5.3	0.2
Mar	9.8	0.5
Feb	15.8	1.2
Jan	15.1	1.2
Dec 2010	17.1
Dec 2009	-2.3
Dec 2008	-7.3
Dec 2007	-0.1
Dec 2006	2.5
Dec 2005	4.9
Dec 2004	5.3
Dec 2003	5.1
Dec 2002	2.0
Dec 2001	-8.8
Dec 2000	0.2
Dec 1999	6.4
Average ∆% per Year
Dec 1995 to Dec 2013	1.5
Dec 1995 to Dec 2000	2.7
Dec 1995 to Dec 2006	2.2
Dec 2002 to Dec 2006	4.5

Source: Statistiche Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Table VE-2 provides monthly percentage changes of the German production industries index by components from Mar to Oct 2014. The index increased 0.2 percent in Oct 2014 with decrease of 0.4 percent in capital goods and decrease of 1.1 percent in energy. There was increase of 0.2 percent in manufacturing and increase of 0.8 percent in intermediate goods. The index increased 1.1 percent in Sep 2014 with increases in all segments except decline of 1.7 percent in nondurable goods. The index decreased 2.3 percent in Aug 2014 with all segments declining with exception of increases of 0.7 percent for nondurable goods and 4.0 percent for energy.

Table VE-2, Germany, Production Industries, Industry and Components, Month ∆%

	Oct 2014	Sep	Aug	Jul	Jun	May	Apr	Mar
Production Industries	0.2	1.1	-2.3	1.0	0.5	-1.4	0.0	-0.7
Industry	0.2	1.3	-3.2	1.6	0.4	-1.3	0.1	-0.4
Mfg	0.2	1.2	-3.1	1.6	0.3	-1.4	0.2	-0.4
Intermediate Goods	0.8	0.0	-1.5	0.8	0.3	-2.3	0.7	-0.7
Capital Goods	-0.4	3.4	-5.8	3.1	-0.2	0.4	-0.6	-0.3
Durable Goods	0.6	0.0	-3.4	-0.4	2.2	-1.1	-2.1	0.9
Nondurable Goods	0.5	-1.7	0.7	-0.1	1.8	-3.8	1.7	0.3
Energy	-1.1	2.7	4.0	-4.6	0.1	0.5	-0.2	1.3

Seasonally Calendar Adjusted

Source: Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Table VE-3 provides 12-month unadjusted percentage changes of industry and components in Germany. There were percentage declines of 12-month rates in the production index of Germany and all segments in the four months from Dec 2012 to Mar 2013 with exception of nondurables in Jan 2013 and energy in Jan and Mar 2013. There is sharp recovery in Apr 2013 with growth of manufacturing by 7.9 percent and capital goods by 11.1 percent. All segments show declines in 12 months in May 2013. There are increases in the 12 months ending in Jun of 1.2 percent in capital goods and 2.8 percent in durable goods. All segments increased in Jul 2013. All segments fell in Aug 2013 with sharp declines. There is strong recovery in Sep with high rates of increase. Many segments increased in the 12 months ending in Oct 2013 with 1.7 percent growth in manufacturing and 2.0 percent in capital goods. Most segments increased in Nov 2013 with 1.1 percent in manufacturing and 1.9 percent in capital goods. All segments increased in Dec 2013 with exception of energy. Most segments increased in Jan 2014 with exception of declines for durable goods and energy. All segments increased in Feb 2014 with exception of energy. All segments increased in Mar 2014 with exception of energy. All segments decreased in Apr 2014 with exception of intermediate goods and nondurable goods. All segments increased in May 2014 with exception of energy. All segments fell in Jun 2014 with exception of nondurable goods. All segments increased in Jul 2014 with exception of energy and durable goods. All segments declined in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014. All segments increased in the 12 months ending in Sep 2014 with exception of energy. All segments increased in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014 with exception of energy. All Percentage declines in 12 months are quite sharp in Dec 2012 with many percentage changes negative around two-digits. Although there are sharp fluctuations in the data, there is suggestion of deceleration that would be expected from much higher earlier rates. The deceleration is quite evident in single-digit percentage changes from Sep 2011 to Dec 2012 relative to high double-digit percentage changes in Jan-Mar 2011. There are multiple negative 12-month percentage changes across many segments. Growth rates in the recovery from the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009 were initially very vigorous in comparison with the growth rates before the contraction that are shown in the bottom part of Table VE-3.

Table VE-3, Germany, Industry and Components, 12-Month ∆% Unadjusted

	IND	MFG	INTG	CG	DG	NDG	EN
2014
Oct	1.1	1.2	-0.1	2.6	0.8	0.6	-3.2
Sep	4.3	4.3	3.0	5.8	1.2	3.8	-3.0
Aug	-4.9	-4.8	-2.6	-8.2	-6.4	-0.7	-5.9
Jul	4.5	4.4	1.8	8.0	-0.5	2.2	-9.6
Jun	-1.8	-2.0	-1.5	-2.4	-6.3	0.6	-5.8
May	4.8	4.7	2.7	7.5	6.6	1.9	-2.4
Apr	-1.1	-0.8	0.9	-3.3	-4.2	1.8	-6.7
Mar	5.3	5.2	5.0	5.8	4.9	4.8	-9.0
Feb	5.9	5.9	6.5	5.9	4.4	4.7	-5.2
Jan	3.4	3.3	2.4	5.5	-1.4	1.3	-2.3
2013
Dec	6.2	6.1	7.1	6.4	5.2	4.2	-0.1
Nov	1.1	1.1	0.6	1.9	-0.4	0.5	-1.6
Oct	1.8	1.7	2.3	2.0	-0.4	0.0	-0.3
Sep	4.7	4.6	4.0	5.8	6.1	2.5	0.8
Aug	-2.9	-3.0	-4.0	-1.8	-7.5	-2.4	-3.1
Jul	1.6	1.6	2.1	0.5	4.1	3.5	0.7
Jun	-0.1	0.0	-1.6	1.2	2.8	-1.1	-1.6
May	-4.5	-4.4	-3.6	-5.9	-10.2	-0.9	-4.6
Apr	8.1	7.9	4.3	11.1	9.3	8.9	0.4
Mar	-8.4	-8.3	-7.3	-9.6	-9.0	-7.0	2.4
Feb	-5.1	-5.2	-5.7	-5.4	-6.1	-2.3	-8.9
Jan	-1.2	-1.1	-1.3	-2.7	-2.8	3.8	0.1
2012
Dec	-9.6	-9.4	-11.8	-8.5	-12.5	-7.0	-2.4
Nov	-3.1	-3.1	-3.9	-2.7	-7.6	-1.2	0.7
Oct	3.9	3.8	2.8	4.0	0.7	7.0	3.2
Sep	-7.6	-7.5	-8.8	-7.1	-11.2	-5.2	4.0
Aug	-1.1	-1.0	-3.2	0.3	0.4	0.7	4.5
Jul	2.0	2.0	0.3	4.6	-2.4	-0.7	2.2
Jun	3.8	3.7	1.9	6.5	7.2	0.3	6.7
May	-7.0	-6.8	-7.5	-6.1	-10.6	-7.7	4.0
Apr	-1.1	-1.1	-2.0	1.9	-5.3	-5.9	3.7
Mar	-0.5	-0.4	-3.1	2.8	-6.2	-2.3	-0.8
Feb	3.2	3.3	0.9	7.3	-0.1	-2.3	5.9
Jan	5.6	5.6	3.0	10.4	4.7	0.1	-3.3
2011
Dec	1.5	1.4	1.8	1.3	0.2	1.4	-9.2
Nov	4.6	4.5	2.9	8.1	2.3	-1.0	-5.8
Oct	0.6	0.7	-0.3	3.2	-2.3	-3.4	-6.1
Sep	5.7	5.7	4.6	9.2	3.4	-0.8	-6.1
Aug	12.4	12.2	9.3	20.4	4.8	1.4	-3.0
Jul	7.9	7.8	5.0	13.7	6.8	0.1	-5.7
Jun	0.5	0.5	0.2	2.3	-10.2	-2.1	-4.7
May	21.5	21.2	17.9	28.3	20.8	12.8	-7.3
Apr	7.5	7.5	6.1	11.1	4.6	1.6	-5.5
Mar	11.2	11.2	10.8	15.0	8.6	2.0	2.8
Feb	17.3	17.1	16.3	23.1	10.1	6.3	-0.4
Jan	17.2	16.9	17.5	23.1	9.9	3.6	-2.6
2010
Dec	17.6	17.6	14.8	25.9	8.5	1.7	2.6
Nov	13.9	13.9	12.9	19.2	7.7	3.9	3.5
Oct	9.9	9.9	9.7	14.0	6.3	0.8	2.5
Sep	9.8	9.5	12.2	10.1	8.3	2.6	2.1
Aug	16.9	17.0	19.3	19.9	18.3	6.9	1.3
Jul	9.0	8.9	13.2	8.7	7.4	0.8	1.9
Jun	16.4	16.2	20.8	16.1	19.7	5.1	-2.8
May	13.1	13.3	20.0	12.0	11.2	1.4	11.1
Apr	14.9	14.9	21.7	15.5	8.8	0.2	9.4
Mar	14.3	14.5	20.4	12.3	11.8	5.8	4.2
Feb	6.8	7.4	10.6	6.5	7.9	-1.0	3.7
Jan	0.4	0.9	6.3	-3.8	0.8	-3.0	0.8
Dec 2010	17.6	17.6	14.8	25.9	8.5	1.7	2.6
Dec 2009	-3.2	-3.1	3.3	-9.9	-0.1	1.1	3.7
Dec 2008	-7.6	-7.4	-14.3	-5.4	-11.2	3.7	-9.0
Dec 2007	0.0	-0.3	-0.6	2.5	-10.0	-2.7	1.6
Dec 2006	3.2	3.1	5.2	2.3	8.6	-0.9	-5.3
Dec 2005	5.8	5.9	3.5	9.0	3.2	2.1	0.6
Dec 2004	5.3	5.5	7.7	3.4	0.8	5.7	9.6
Dec 2003	5.5	5.3	5.5	6.4	1.7	4.4	0.3
Dec 2002	3.7	3.3	5.4	3.4	-5.9	2.3	-2.6

Note: IND: Industry; MFG: Manufacturing; INTG: Intermediate Goods; CG: Capital Goods; DG: Durable Goods; NDG: Nondurable Goods; EN: Energy

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Broader perspective since 2005 is provided by Chart VE-1 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland, Federal Statistical Agency of Germany. The index of production industries not seasonally adjusted rises by more than one third between 2003 and 2008 with sharp fluctuations and then collapses during the global recession in 2008. Recovery has been in a steep upward trajectory that has recovered at the more recent peaks the losses during the contraction. Recovery stalled recently with increase at the margin.

Chart VE-1, Germany, Production Industries, Not Adjusted, 2010=100

Source: Statistiche Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

More detail is provided by Chart VE-2 of the Statistiche Bundesamt Deutschland, or Federal Statistical Agency of Germany, with the unadjusted production industries index and trend from 2010 to 2014. There could be some flattening in recent months probably leading into stagnation, mild downturn and recent recovery as depicted by trend. There is weakness in the current segment with stability/decline followed with increase/stability.

Chart VE-2, Germany, Production Industries, Not Adjusted, 2010=100

Source: Statistiche Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Table VE-4 provides month and 12-month rates of growth of manufacturing in Germany from Dec 2010 to Oct 2014. There are fluctuations in both monthly rates and in the past 12 months. In Jan 2013, manufacturing fell 1.1 percent and decreased 1.1 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing increased 1.0 percent in Feb 2013, declining 5.2 percent in 12 months. In Mar 2013, manufacturing increased 0.9 percent but fell 8.3 percent in 12 months. There is strong recovery in Apr 2013 with growth of 0.5 percent and 7.9 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 0.9 percent in May 2013 and declined 4.4 percent in 12 months. Recovery is strong in Jun 2013 with growth of 1.9 percent in the month but change of 0.0 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 1.8 percent in Jul 2013 and increased 1.6 percent in 12 months. In Aug 2013, manufacturing increased 2.7 percent and fell 3.0 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 1.1 percent in Sep 2013 and increased 4.6 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing increased 2.3 percent in Nov 2013 and 1.1 percent in 12 months. In Dec 2013, manufacturing increased 0.1 percent and increased 6.1 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing changed 0.0 percent in Jan 2014, increasing 3.3 percent in 12 months. In Feb 2014, manufacturing increased 0.5 percent and 5.9 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 0.4 percent in Mar 2014 and increased 5.2 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing increased 0.2 percent in Apr 2014 and fell 0.8 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 1.4 percent in May, increasing 4.7 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing increased 0.3 percent in Jun 2014 and fell 2.0 percent in 12 months. In Jul 2014, manufacturing jumped 1.6 percent and increased 4.4 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 3.1 percent in Aug 2014 and declined 4.8 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing increased 1.2 percent in Sep 2014 and 1.2 percent in 12 months. In Oct 2014, manufacturing increased 0.2 percent and 1.2 percent in 12 months.

Table VE-4, Germany, Manufacturing Month and 12-Month ∆%

	12-Month ∆% NSA	Month ∆% SA and Calendar Adjusted
Oct 2014	1.2	0.2
Sep	4.3	1.2
Aug	-4.8	-3.1
Jul	4.4	1.6
Jun	-2.0	0.3
May	4.7	-1.4
Apr	-0.8	0.2
Mar	5.2	-0.4
Feb	5.9	0.5
Jan	3.3	0.0
Dec 2013	6.1	0.1
Nov	1.1	2.3
Oct	1.7	-0.6
Sep	4.6	-1.1
Aug	-3.0	2.7
Jul	1.6	-1.8
Jun	0.0	1.9
May	-4.4	-0.9
Apr	7.9	0.5
Mar	-8.3	0.9
Feb	-5.2	1.0
Jan	-1.1	-1.1
Dec 2012	-9.4	1.0
Nov	-3.1	-0.6
Oct	3.8	-1.4
Sep	-7.5	-1.6
Aug	-1.0	0.1
Jul	2.0	1.2
Jun	3.7	-1.3
May	-6.8	2.1
Apr	-1.1	-1.9
Mar	-0.4	1.0
Feb	3.3	0.2
Jan	5.6	0.7
Dec 2011	1.4	-1.6
Nov	4.5	-0.7
Oct	0.7	1.1
Sep	5.7	-1.9
Aug	12.2	-0.5
Jul	7.8	3.2
Jun	0.5	-1.7
May	21.2	1.1
Apr	7.5	0.6
Mar	11.2	0.6
Feb	17.1	1.4
Jan	16.9	0.0
Dec 2010	17.6	1.3

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-3 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland, or Federal Statistical Office of Germany, provides the manufacturing index of Germany from 2010 to 2014. Manufacturing was already flattening in 2007 and fell sharply in 2008 to the beginning of 2010. Manufacturing grew sharply in the initial phase of recovery but has flattened in recent months as revealed by the trend that may be turning downwardly.

Chart VE-3, Germany, Production Index, Manufacturing, Not Adjusted Index and Trend, 2010=100

Source: Statistiche Bundesamt Deutschland https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Table VE-5 provides month and 12-month rates of growth of new orders of manufacturing in Germany from Jan 2010 to Oct 2014. There are fluctuations in both monthly rates and in the past 12 months. Table VE-5 reveals strong fluctuations in an evident deceleration of total orders for industry of Germany with recent oscillating improvement. Total orders for manufacturing increased 2.5 percent in Oct 2014 and increased 2.5 percent in 12 months. There is the same behavior for total, foreign and domestic orders with decline in 12-month rates from two-digit levels to single digits and negative changes. An important aspect of Germany is that the bulk of orders is domestic or from other European countries while foreign orders have been growing rapidly. There is weakening world trade affecting export economies. As in other countries, data on orders for manufacturing are highly volatile. Most 12-month percentage changes from Jan 2012 to Sep 2012 in Table VE-5 are negative largely because of the unusual strength of the Germany economy in the beginning of 2011 but more recently because of slowing world economy in 2012-2014.

Table VE-5, Germany, Volume of Orders Received in Manufacturing, Total, Domestic and Foreign, ∆%  

	Total 12 M	Total M	Foreign 12 M	Foreign M	Home 12 M	Home M
2014
Oct	2.4	2.5	2.2	0.6	2.5	5.3
Sep	2.1	1.1	4.1	4.0	-0.4	-2.6
Aug	-2.1	-4.2	-0.1	-6.5	-4.5	-1.0
Jul	5.9	4.8	9.3	7.6	1.5	1.1
Jun	-4.0	-2.4	-5.0	-3.2	-2.4	-1.4
May	7.7	-1.2	7.6	-0.5	7.8	-2.0
Apr	3.7	2.7	4.6	4.2	2.5	0.8
Mar	3.2	-2.3	2.5	-3.9	4.2	-0.3
Feb	7.6	0.7	9.3	0.5	5.6	1.1
Jan	5.8	0.0	8.2	-1.6	2.9	2.2
2013
Dec	8.4	0.0	10.7	1.9	5.0	-2.4
Nov	4.5	0.7	6.0	-0.3	2.5	2.2
Oct	3.7	-0.4	4.1	0.2	3.1	-1.1
Sep	11.2	2.6	13.7	5.0	8.0	-0.4
Aug	0.0	0.6	-0.9	-0.4	1.0	1.8
Jul	5.1	-2.9	5.5	-4.8	4.8	-0.3
Jun	4.8	5.1	7.9	6.1	0.7	3.9
May	-3.6	-0.3	-1.6	0.6	-6.2	-1.5
Apr	5.9	-2.5	7.6	-2.1	3.6	-2.8
Mar	-5.6	2.5	-4.4	3.0	-7.2	1.8
Feb	-2.7	1.5	-1.5	1.8	-4.2	1.1
Jan	0.3	-1.1	1.9	-2.5	-1.7	0.9
2012
Dec	-9.1	1.6	-6.7	2.3	-12.6	0.6
Nov	-0.9	-3.0	2.4	-4.7	-5.1	-0.6
Oct	4.5	4.2	7.0	7.2	1.3	0.3
Sep	-8.9	-2.3	-6.6	-3.9	-11.7	-0.4
Aug	-4.4	-0.5	-2.1	0.4	-7.1	-1.6
Jul	-1.6	0.4	0.6	0.6	-4.2	0.2
Jun	-4.5	-1.9	-6.4	-1.9	-1.7	-2.0
May	-11.0	1.0	-3.7	2.3	-18.8	-0.6
Apr	-3.9	-2.0	-4.4	-3.2	-3.1	-0.5
Mar	-2.2	2.6	-1.2	3.6	-3.3	1.4
Feb	-4.3	0.6	-4.7	1.8	-3.8	-0.9
Jan	-2.6	-2.3	-4.6	-3.8	-0.2	-0.4
2011
Dec	0.0	2.6	-0.3	4.7	0.5	0.0
Nov	-4.8	-3.3	-8.2	-5.3	-0.3	-0.7
Oct	0.1	2.0	2.1	3.9	-2.1	-0.2
Sep	2.2	-3.6	1.9	-4.9	2.6	-2.2
Aug	7.1	-0.6	5.2	0.6	9.4	-2.0
Jul	4.9	-2.3	4.6	-6.3	5.4	2.9
Jun	3.5	-0.2	7.8	9.4	-2.0	-10.6
May	23.1	2.8	16.0	-4.0	31.8	11.3
Apr	6.7	1.6	9.6	2.1	3.0	1.1
Mar	9.8	-2.9	12.3	-2.9	6.9	-3.0
Feb	21.5	0.9	24.1	0.5	18.4	1.6
Jan	22.5	3.8	26.1	3.6	18.2	4.0
2010
Dec	21.8	-2.7	26.8	-3.9	15.4	-1.1
Nov	21.4	5.2	27.1	8.5	15.0	1.2
Oct	14.2	0.9	18.2	0.8	10.0	0.9
Sep	13.9	-1.6	15.6	-4.0	11.9	1.6
Aug	22.2	2.6	29.7	4.7	14.5	0.0
Jul	14.1	-1.0	21.4	-1.0	6.4	-0.9
Jun	27.6	2.7	30.6	3.5	24.2	1.8
May	24.8	0.1	29.6	0.9	19.4	-0.9
Apr	29.9	2.9	34.0	3.0	25.7	3.0
Mar	29.4	5.0	32.9	5.1	25.8	4.9
Feb	24.0	0.0	28.7	0.6	18.6	-0.7
Jan	17.0	3.8	23.8	4.3	9.8	3.1
Dec 2009	9.1	-1.7	10.5	-2.6	7.3	-0.5
Dec 2008	-28.3	-6.7	-31.5	-9.5	-23.7	-2.9
Dec 2007	7.1	-0.9	9.1	-2.0	4.4	0.2
Dec 2006	2.8	0.8	3.4	0.5	2.2	1.1
Dec 2005	5.0	-0.5	10.4	-1.1	-1.4	0.3
Dec 2004	12.7	6.5	13.0	8.5	12.7	4.9
Dec 2003	10.7	2.4	16.4	5.4	5.1	-0.8
Dec 2002	-0.2	-3.4	-0.8	-6.6	0.2	-0.3
Average ∆% 2003-2007	7.6		10.4		4.5
Average ∆% 2003-2012	2.3		3.9		0.3

Notes: AE: Annual Equivalent; M: Month; M: Calendar and seasonally adjusted; 12 M: Non-adjusted Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Orders for capital goods of Germany are shown in Table VE-6. Total capital goods orders increased 3.0 percent in Oct 2014 and increased 4.4 percent in 12 months. Domestic orders increased 8.6 percent in Oct and foreign orders decreased 0.1 percent. There has been deceleration from 2010 and early 2011 with growth rates falling from two digit levels to single digits, and multiple negative changes with recent improvement. An important aspect of Germany’s economy shown in Tables VE-5 and VE-6 is the success in increasing the competitiveness of its economic activities as shown by rapid growth of orders for industry after the recession of 2001 in the period before the global recession beginning in late 2007. Germany adopted fiscal and labor market reforms to increase productivity.

Table VE-6, Germany, Volume of Orders Received of Capital Goods Industries, Total, Foreign and Domestic, ∆%

	Total 12 M	Total M	Foreign 12 M	Foreign M	Domestic 12 M	Domestic M
2014
Oct	4.4	3.0	3.2	-0.1	6.5	8.6
Sep	1.1	1.4	2.4	4.0	-1.2	-3.1
Aug	-2.4	-6.6	-0.3	-9.6	-5.7	-1.0
Jul	8.8	9.2	12.6	12.6	2.3	3.3
Jun	-7.6	-5.1	-9.0	-6.3	-4.7	-3.0
May	10.1	-0.2	10.0	1.1	10.5	-2.4
Apr	5.4	3.7	6.4	5.7	3.6	0.4
Mar	3.2	-2.9	1.2	-5.0	6.5	0.7
Feb	7.4	0.5	9.0	0.0	4.7	1.4
Jan	7.0	-1.2	9.4	-3.8	3.2	3.9
2013
Dec	10.7	1.2	14.8	4.9	3.2	-5.2
Nov	6.8	2.2	7.4	1.5	5.3	3.6
Oct	2.7	-2.9	2.1	-3.1	3.3	-2.5
Sep	14.6	3.6	17.1	6.7	10.3	-1.5
Aug	3.1	0.9	1.5	-0.7	5.7	3.8
Jul	6.3	-5.3	7.3	-7.5	5.0	-1.4
Jun	9.1	9.2	13.5	10.1	1.8	7.5
May	-3.1	-0.4	-0.4	1.4	-7.8	-3.3
Apr	6.0	-2.8	7.3	-3.4	3.7	-2.0
Mar	-5.9	1.5	-4.4	2.6	-8.2	-0.3
Feb	0.1	2.8	2.7	2.7	-4.0	2.6
Jan	3.1	-1.3	5.8	-2.1	-1.4	0.2
2012
Dec	-7.7	2.6	-4.6	2.8	-13.3	2.2
Nov	-0.7	-4.4	3.1	-6.1	-6.5	-1.4
Oct	4.6	5.8	6.3	8.9	2.1	0.8
Sep	-7.5	-1.8	-4.8	-3.2	-11.6	0.5
Aug	-4.6	-1.6	-2.6	-0.5	-7.4	-3.5
Jul	-0.3	0.7	1.2	1.1	-2.7	-0.1
Jun	-7.1	-1.9	-9.9	-2.1	-1.9	-1.3
May	-12.0	1.0	-2.8	1.9	-23.9	-0.4
Apr	-3.3	-3.4	-4.2	-4.6	-1.7	-1.6
Mar	2.2	5.3	3.3	7.8	0.2	1.2
Feb	-5.9	1.7	-7.0	2.2	-4.2	0.9
Jan	-3.7	-4.1	-6.5	-4.9	1.0	-2.8
2011
Dec	1.2	2.7	-0.1	3.7	3.5	1.1
Nov	-6.5	-4.3	-10.5	-7.4	0.7	1.0
Oct	3.1	4.2	6.2	7.3	-2.0	-0.7
Sep	2.9	-4.4	2.2	-6.1	4.0	-1.5
Aug	6.7	-0.1	4.5	1.1	10.6	-2.0
Jul	7.2	-6.2	6.4	-10.2	8.8	0.9
Jun	9.1	1.5	13.3	14.4	2.0	-15.8
May	27.5	4.7	17.7	-4.8	43.5	20.9
Apr	11.0	3.8	14.1	4.9	6.3	2.1
Mar	12.0	-5.9	14.4	-5.5	8.5	-6.7
Feb	29.3	2.7	32.5	1.5	24.8	4.8
Jan	26.8	3.6	32.8	3.9	17.7	3.0
2010
Dec	27.4	-5.2	31.2	-7.2	21.1	-1.6
Nov	30.4	8.9	37.0	13.1	20.1	2.0
Oct	20.5	0.7	24.9	0.2	14.3	1.7
Sep	18.2	-2.9	20.3	-5.7	14.7	2.0
Aug	27.5	5.5	40.0	7.7	11.5	1.9
Jul	14.1	-2.3	28.1	-2.2	-2.5	-2.2
Jun	32.0	3.6	38.7	5.1	22.1	1.0
May	26.2	1.9	36.6	1.9	12.8	1.8
Apr	31.0	3.0	41.4	3.7	18.1	2.0
Mar	25.8	6.4	33.8	7.3	15.7	4.8
Feb	21.2	-1.0	31.3	0.3	8.3	-2.9
Jan	17.0	4.2	29.6	2.5	2.8	7.1
Dec 2009	8.1	-1.2	13.6	-1.5	0.3	-1.0
Dec 2008	-32.2	-7.2	-36.8	-10.0	-24.5	-3.6
Dec 2007	9.4	-0.6	11.6	-2.3	6.1	2.2
Dec 2006	3.5	2.2	3.9	2.9	2.9	1.2
Dec 2005	1.8	-2.1	9.7	-2.5	-8.4	-1.6
Dec 2004	19.5	11.2	18.6	12.2	20.6	9.7
Dec 2003	11.7	2.1	17.2	5.0	5.4	-1.6
Dec 2002	-2.8	-4.3	-3.7	-8.1	-1.8	0.2
Average ∆% 2003-2007	9.0		12.1		4.9
Average ∆% 2003-2012	3.0		4.7		0.5

Notes: AE: Annual Equivalent; M: Month; M: Calendar and seasonally-adjusted; 12 M: Non-adjusted

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-4 of the German Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland shows the sharp upward trend of total orders in manufacturing before the global recession. There is also an obvious upward trend in the recovery from the recession with Germany’s economy being among the most dynamic in the advanced economies until the slowdown beginning in the final months of 2011 and what could be stationary series from late 2011 into 2012 but risk of decline/stability in the final segment.

Chart VE-4, Germany, Volume of Total Orders in Manufacturing, Non-Adjusted, 2010=100

Source:  Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-5 shows non-adjusted total orders in manufacturing and trend. There was sharp recovery from the global recession with subsequent decline. Trend reversed upwardly and could be declining.

Chart VE-5, Germany, Volume of Total Orders in Manufacturing and Trend, Non-Adjusted, 2010=100

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Twelve-month rates of growth Germany’s exports and imports are shown in Table VE-7. There was sharp decline in the rates in Jun and Jul 2011 to single-digit levels especially for exports. Exports increased 4.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014 while imports increased 0.9 percent. In the 12 months ending in Aug 2011, exports rose 14.6 percent and imports 13.2 percent. In Sep 2011, exports grew 10.4 percent relative to a year earlier and imports grew 11.7 percent. Growth rates in 12 months ending in Oct 2011 fell significantly to 3.5 percent for exports and 9.2 percent for imports. Lower prices may explain part of the decline in nominal values. Exports fell 3.8 percent in 12 months ending in Sep 2012, rebounding to growth of 10.5 percent in Oct 2012 and minus 0.5 percent in Nov 2012 but sharp decline of 7.3 percent in Dec 2012 followed by rebound of 2.8 percent in Jan 2013. Exports fell 3.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2013 and declined 4.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2013. In Apr 2013, exports increased 7.6 percent relative to a year earlier. Exports fell 4.9 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2013. Exports fell 5.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2013 and imports fell 2.3 percent. In the 12 months ending in Sep 2013, exports increased 3.3 percent and imports fell 0.2 percent. Exports increased 0.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2013 while imports fell 1.5 percent. Exports increased 0.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2013 and imports fell 0.2 percent. Exports increased 4.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013 while imports increased 2.5 percent. Exports increased 2.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2014 while imports increased 0.8 percent. Exports increased 4.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2014 and imports increased 5.9 percent. Exports increased 1.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2014 and imports 4.7 percent. Exports fell 0.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014 while imports increased 0.6 percent. In May 2014, exports increased 4.5 percent in 12 months. Exports increased 1.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2014 and 8.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2014. Exports fell 0.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014. Exports increased 8.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2014 and increased 4.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014. Imports decreased 4.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2012, rebounding to growth of 5.7 percent in Oct 2012, decreasing 1.5 percent in Nov 2012 and 7.8 percent in Dec 2012 and rebounding 3.5 percent in Jan 2013. Imports fell 5.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2013 and declined 6.9 percent in Mar 2013 relative to a year earlier. In Apr 2013, imports increased 4.4 percent relative to a year earlier. In May 2013, imports fell 3.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Imports fell 1.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2013. In Jul 2013, imports increased 1.0 percent relative to a year earlier. Imports fell 2.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2013. In the 12 months ending in Sep 2013, imports declined 0.2 percent. Imports fell 1.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2013. Imports fell 0.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2013 and increased 2.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013. Imports increased 0.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2014 and 5.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2014. Imports increased 4.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2014 and 0.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014. Imports fell 0.5 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2014 and increased 2.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2014. Imports increased 0.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2014 and fell 2.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014. Imports increased 8.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2014 and increased 0.9 percent in Oct 2014 relative to a year earlier. Growth was much stronger in the recovery during 2010 and 2011 from the fall from 2007 to 2009. Germany’s trade grew at high rates in 2006 and 2005.

Table VE-7, Germany, Exports and Imports NSA Euro Billions and 12-Month ∆%

	Exports EURO Billions	12- Month ∆%	Imports EURO Billions	12-Month ∆%
Oct 2014	103.9	4.9	81.9	0.9
Sep	102.5	8.6	80.4	8.2
Aug	84.1	-0.9	70.0	-2.4
Jul	101.1	8.7	77.6	0.9
Jun	93.5	1.4	76.9	2.1
May	92.1	4.5	74.3	-0.5
Apr	93.7	-0.2	76.5	0.6
Mar	96.0	1.7	79.4	4.7
Feb	92.4	4.6	76.2	5.9
Jan	90.7	2.5	75.7	0.8
Dec 2013	81.9	4.3	68.3	2.5
Nov	94.5	0.8	76.7	-0.2
Oct	99.0	0.6	81.2	-1.5
Sep	94.4	3.3	74.4	-0.2
Aug	84.8	-5.9	71.7	-2.3
Jul	93.0	-0.4	76.9	1.0
Jun	92.2	-2.2	75.4	-1.2
May	88.2	-4.9	74.7	-3.0
Apr	93.9	7.6	76.1	4.4
Mar	94.3	-4.4	75.8	-6.9
Feb	88.3	-3.2	71.9	-5.2
Jan	88.5	2.8	75.1	3.5
Dec 2012	78.6	-7.3	66.6	-7.8
Nov	93.7	-0.5	76.8	-1.5
Oct	98.4	10.5	82.5	5.7
Sep	91.4	-3.8	74.5	-4.1
Aug	90.2	5.7	73.4	-0.1
Jul	93.3	9.1	76.2	1.5
Jun	94.3	7.0	76.3	1.4
May	92.7	0.3	77.0	-0.7
Apr	87.2	3.2	72.9	-1.1
Mar	98.7	0.1	81.5	2.1
Feb	91.2	7.9	75.8	4.6
Jan	86.1	8.6	72.6	4.6
Dec 2011	84.8	4.7	72.3	5.6
Nov	94.1	7.4	78.0	5.8
Oct	89.1	3.5	78.1	9.2
Sep	95.0	10.4	77.7	11.7
Aug	85.3	14.6	73.5	13.2
Jul	85.6	5.2	75.0	9.7
Jun	88.1	3.3	75.2	5.6
May	92.4	21.2	77.5	17.4
Apr	84.5	12.4	73.7	18.5
Mar	98.7	15.3	79.8	15.1
Feb	84.5	20.8	72.5	27.6
Jan	79.3	25.2	69.4	26.0
Dec 2010	81.0	20.0	68.4	24.4
Nov	87.6	21.2	73.7	30.9
Oct	86.0	18.7	71.5	19.2
Sep	86.0	21.2	69.5	17.0
Aug	74.4	23.8	64.9	27.1
Jul	81.4	15.3	68.4	24.4
Jun	85.3	27.5	71.2	33.9
May	76.2	25.6	66.1	31.3
Apr	75.2	16.8	62.2	14.4
Mar	85.6	22.0	69.3	18.0
Feb	70.0	9.7	56.8	3.2
Jan	63.4	-0.3	55.1	-1.9
Dec 2009	67.5	1.2	55.0	-7.3
Dec 2008	66.7	-8.6	59.4	-5.1
Dec 2007	73.0	-0.6	62.5	-0.1
Dec 2006	73.4	10.2	62.6	8.5
Dec 2005	66.6	11.5	57.7	18.1
Dec 2004	59.7	9.2	48.9	10.8
Dec 2003	54.7	7.6	44.1	3.9
Dec 2002	50.8	5.5	42.5	6.4
Dec 2001	48.2	-3.7	39.9	-17.5
Dec 2000	50.0		48.4

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-6 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland shows exports and trend of German exports. Growth has been with fluctuations around a strong upward trend that is milder than earlier in the recovery but could be moving upwardly after flattening.

Chart VE-6, Germany, Exports Original Value and Trend 2010-2014

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Imports in Chart VE-7 also fell sharply and have been recovering with fluctuations around a strong upward trend that could be flattening. There could be new downward trend.

Chart VE-7, Germany, Imports Original Value and Trend 2010-2014

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Chart VE-8 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland shows the trade balance of Germany since 2010. There was sharp decline during the global recession and fluctuations around a mild upward trend during the recovery with stabilization followed by stronger trend in recent months and flattening/declining recently. The final segment could be increasing.

Chart VE-8, Germany, Trade Balance Original and Trend 2010-2014

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

Table VE-8 provides monthly rates of growth of exports and imports of Germany. Exports decreased 0.5 percent calendar and seasonally adjusted (CSA) in Oct 2014 while imports decreased 3.1 percent. Export growth had been relatively strong from Dec 2012 to Apr 2013 with only one monthly decline of 1.4 percent in Feb 2013. Exports fell 1.1 percent in May 2013 and 0.7 percent in Jul 2013. Exports grew in four consecutive months from Aug to Nov 2013. Exports fell in Dec 2013, Feb-Mar 2014, May 2014 an Aug 2014, increasing in Jan, Apr, Jun, Jul 2014, Sep and Oct 2014. Export growth and import growth were vigorous in Jan-Mar 2011 when Germany’s economy outperformed most advanced economies but less dynamic and consistent in following months as world trade weakens.

Table VE-8, Germany, Exports and Imports Month ∆% Calendar and Seasonally Adjusted 

	Exports	Imports
Oct 2014	-0.5	-3.1
Sep	5.5	5.2
Aug	-5.8	-1.3
Jul	4.8	-1.4
Jun	0.9	3.6
May	-1.1	-2.6
Apr	2.6	0.2
Mar	-1.8	-1.3
Feb	-1.3	0.3
Jan	2.5	3.1
Dec 2013	-1.0	-1.5
Nov	0.5	-0.1
Oct	0.3	2.3
Sep	1.4	-1.6
Aug	1.0	0.2
Jul	-0.7	0.7
Jun	0.3	-1.5
May	-1.1	1.8
Apr	0.2	1.2
Mar	1.5	0.3
Feb	-1.4	-3.0
Jan	1.1	2.9
Dec 2012	0.5	-1.4
Nov	-2.4	-3.1
Oct	0.3	2.0
Sep	-2.7	-0.2
Aug	1.7	-0.1
Jul	0.6	0.6
Jun	-1.5	-2.7
May	4.8	5.0
Apr	-1.9	-4.0
Mar	0.2	0.8
Feb	1.4	3.3
Jan	2.1	-0.6
Dec 2011	-2.7	-2.0
Nov	3.0	0.4
Oct	-3.5	-0.9
Sep	1.4	0.3
Aug	2.6	-0.1
Jul	-1.2	0.5
Jun	-0.5	0.0
May	2.9	1.5
Apr	-3.9	-0.3
Mar	4.9	1.6
Feb	1.6	2.5
Jan	0.4	2.8
Dec 2010	0.1	-2.2

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html

There is extremely important information in Table VE-9 for the current sovereign risk crisis in the euro zone. Table VE-9 provides the structure of regional and country relations of Germany’s exports and imports with newly available data for Oct 2014. German exports to other European Union (EU) members are 57.5 percent of total exports in Oct 2014 and 57.9 percent in cumulative Jan-Oct 2014. Exports to the euro area are 36.1 percent of the total in Oct and 36.5 percent cumulative in Jan-Oct. Exports to third countries are 42.5 percent of the total in Oct and 42.1 percent cumulative in Jan-Oct. There is similar distribution for imports. Exports to non-euro countries are increasing 7.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014, increasing 9.8 percent cumulative in Jan-Oct 2014 while exports to the euro area are increasing 1.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014 and increasing 2.5 percent cumulative in Jan-Oct 2014. Exports to third countries, accounting for 42.5 percent of the total in Oct 2014, are increasing 6.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014 and increasing 1.7 percent cumulative in Jan-Oct 2014, accounting for 42.1 percent of the cumulative total in Jan-Oct 2014. Price competitiveness through devaluation could improve export performance and growth. Economic performance in Germany is closely related to Germany’s high competitiveness in world markets. Weakness in the euro zone and the European Union in general could affect the German economy. This may be the major reason for choosing the “fiscal abuse” of the European Central Bank considered by Buiter (2011Oct31) over the breakdown of the euro zone. There is a tough analytical, empirical and forecasting doubt of growth and trade in the euro zone and the world with or without maintenance of the European Monetary Union (EMU) or euro zone. Germany could benefit from depreciation of the euro because of high share in its exports to countries not in the euro zone but breakdown of the euro zone raises doubts on the region’s economic growth that could affect German exports to other member states.

Table VE-9, Germany, Structure of Exports and Imports by Region, € Billions and ∆%

	Oct 2014  € Billions	Oct 12-Month ∆%	Cumulative Jan-Oct 2014 € Billions	Cumulative Jan-Oct 2014/ Jan-Oct 2013 ∆%
Total Exports	103.9	4.9	950.0	3.6
A. EU Members	59.7 % 57.5	3.9	550.3 % 57.9	5.0
Euro Area	37.5 % 36.1	1.9	347.1 % 36.5	2.5
Non-euro Area	22.2 % 21.4	7.6	203.2 % 21.4	9.8
B. Third Countries	44.2 % 42.5	6.3	399.7 % 42.1	1.7
Total Imports	81.9	0.9	769.0	2.1
C EU Members	54.0 % 65.9	1.2	502.1 % 65.3	3.7
Euro Area	36.7 % 44.8	0.2	344.9 % 44.9	2.5
Non-euro Area	17.3 % 21.1	3.6	157.2 % 20.4	6.6
D Third Countries	28.0 % 34.2	0.2	266.9 % 34.7	-0.8

Notes: Total Exports = A+B; Total Imports = C+D

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/12/PE14_436_51.html

VF France. Table VF-FR provides growth rates of GDP of France with the estimates of Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE). The long-term rate of GDP growth of France from IVQ1949 to IVQ2012 is quite high at 3.2 percent. France’s growth rates were quite high in the four decades of the 1950s, 1960, 1970s and 1980s with an average growth rate of 4.0 percent compounding the average rates in the decades and discounting to one decade. The growth impulse diminished with 2.0 percent in the 1990s and 1.8 percent from 2000 to 2007. The average growth rate from 2000 to 2012, using fourth quarter data, is 1.1 percent because of the sharp impact of the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. The growth rate from 2000 to 2012 is 1.1 percent. Cobet and Wilson (2002) provide estimates of output per hour and unit labor costs in national currency and US dollars for the US, Japan and Germany from 1950 to 2000 (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 137-44). The average yearly rate of productivity change from 1950 to 2000 was 2.9 percent in the US, 6.3 percent for Japan and 4.7 percent for Germany while unit labor costs in USD increased at 2.6 percent in the US, 4.7 percent in Japan and 4.3 percent in Germany. From 1995 to 2000, output per hour increased at the average yearly rate of 4.6 percent in the US, 3.9 percent in Japan and 2.6 percent in Germany while unit labor costs in US fell at minus 0.7 percent in the US, 4.3 percent in Japan and 7.5 percent in Germany. There was increase in productivity growth in the G7 in Japan and France in the second half of the 1990s but significantly lower than the acceleration of 1.3 percentage points per year in the US. Lucas (2011May) compares growth of the G7 economies (US, UK, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Canada) and Spain, finding that catch-up growth with earlier rates for the US and UK stalled in the 1970s.

Table VF-FR, France, Average Growth Rates of GDP Fourth Quarter, 1949-2013

Period	Average ∆%
1949-2013	3.2
2007-2013	0.3
2000-2013	1.1
2000-2012	1.1
2000-2007	1.8
1990-1999	2.1
1980-1989	2.6
1970-1979	3.7
1960-1969	5.7
1950-1959	4.2

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=26&date=20141114

The Markit Flash France Composite Output Index increased from 48.2 in Oct to 48.4 in Nov (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/292b957845f746aa91f883b0cfbfad19). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds continuing weak performance (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/292b957845f746aa91f883b0cfbfad19). The Markit France Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing with close association with French GDP, decreased from 48.2 in Oct to 47.9 in Nov, indicating marginal contraction (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d48dedfcd0b54811bad95681303aa778). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the France Services PMI^®, finds restraint of growth by the private sector (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d48dedfcd0b54811bad95681303aa778). The Markit France Services Activity index decreased from 48.3 in Oct to 47.9 in Nov (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d48dedfcd0b54811bad95681303aa778). The Markit France Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^® decreased to 48.4 in Nov from 48.5 in Oct (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/bf79cddac65143d8b64e26fa128e675d). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the France Manufacturing PMI^®, finds deteriorating conditions because of weakness in internal markets (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/bf79cddac65143d8b64e26fa128e675d). Table FR provides the country data table for France.

Table VF-1, France, Manufactur Table FR, France, Economic Indicators

CPI	Nov month ∆% -0.2 12 months ∆%: 0.3 12/14/14
PPI	Oct month ∆%: -0.3 Oct 12 months ∆%: -1.4 Blog 11/30/14
GDP Growth	IIIQ2014/IIQ2014 ∆%:0.3 IIIQ2014/IIIQ2013 ∆%: 0.4 Blog 3/31/13 5/19/12 6/30/13 9/29/13 11/17/13 12/29/13 2/16/14 4/6/14 5/18/14 6/29/14 8/17/14 9/28/14 11/16/14
Industrial Production	Oct ∆%: Manufacturing -0.2 12-Month ∆%: Manufacturing -0.6 Blog 12/14/14
Consumer Spending	Manufactured Goods Oct ∆%: 0.1 Oct 12-Month Manufactured Goods ∆%: 0.4 Blog 11/30/14
Employment	Unemployment Rate: IIIQ2014 9.9% Blog 12/7/14
Trade Balance	Oct Exports ∆%: month 0.5, 12 months 1.8 Oct Imports ∆%: month 0.1, 12 months 0.6 Blog 12/14/14
Confidence Indicators	Historical average 100 Oct Mfg Business Climate 99.0 Blog 11/30/14

Links to blog comments in Table FR:

12/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/financial-risks-twenty-six-million.html

11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

9/28/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

12/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/collapse-of-united-states-dynamism-of.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

6/30/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/tapering-quantitative-easing-policy-and.html

5/19/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/word-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

Table VF-1 provides longer historical perspective of manufacturing in France. Output of manufacturing decreased 0.2 percent in Oct 2014 and decreased 0.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014. Manufacturing in France fell 14.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2008 and 4.2 percent in Dec 2009. Manufacturing recovered with growth of 6.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2010. Manufacturing fell 0.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2011 and 3.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2012. Manufacturing increased 0.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013.

Table VF-1, France, Manufacturing, Month and 12-Month ∆%

	Month ∆%	12-Month ∆%
Oct 2014	-0.2	-0.6
Sep	0.3	0.1
Aug	-0.2	-0.5
Jul	0.0	0.5
Jun	1.6	-0.1
May	-2.4	-2.9
Apr	0.1	-0.4
Mar	-0.4	1.7
Feb	0.2	1.3
Jan	0.4	2.0
Dec 2013	-0.1	0.5
Nov	0.1	1.5
Oct	0.5	0.5
Sep	-0.3	-1.1
Aug	0.8	-3.1
Jul	-0.6	-2.1
Jun	-1.2	-0.2
May	0.1	0.3
Apr	2.2	0.2
Mar	-0.8	-3.7
Feb	0.9	-1.2
Jan	-1.1	-4.2
Dec 2012	0.9	-3.1
Nov	-0.9	-5.9
Oct	-1.1	-3.1
Sep	-2.3	-2.3
Aug	1.9	-0.7
Jul	1.3	-2.7
Jun	-0.7	-3.4
May	0.0	-5.2
Apr	-1.8	-3.3
Mar	1.8	-2.4
Feb	-2.2	-5.4
Jan	0.0	-2.8
Dec 2011	-2.0	-0.6
Nov	2.1	2.0
Oct	-0.3	2.1
Sep	-0.7	1.5
Aug	-0.2	3.7
Jul	0.6	3.5
Jun	-2.6	3.3
May	2.0	5.1
Apr	-0.9	4.1
Mar	-1.3	5.4
Feb	0.6	9.2
Jan	2.2	8.5
Dec 2013		0.5
Dec 2012		-3.1
Dec 2011		-0.6
Dec 2010		6.1
Dec 2009		-4.2
Dec 2008		-14.0
Dec 2007		-0.7
Dec 2006		2.9
Dec 2005		0.9
Dec 2004		1.1
Dec 2003		0.5
Dec 2002		-1.1
Dec 2001		-5.3
Dec 2000		4.9

Source:

Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=10&date=20141210

Chart VF-1 of the Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques provides France’s index of manufacturing, adjusted for working days and seasonal effects, from Jan 1990 to Oct 2014. Growth was robust in the 1990s and in recovery from the 2001 recession. Manufacturing output fell sharply during the global recession followed by recovery and another trend of decline followed by increase and new decline.

Chart VF-1, France, Index of Manufacturing 2010=100, Jan 1990-Aug 2014, Seasonal and Working-Day Adjusted

Source:

Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=10&date=20141210

Chart VF-2 of France’s Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques shows indices of manufacturing in France from 2010 to 2014. Manufacturing, which is CZ in Chart VF-2, fell deeply in 2008 and part of 2009. All curves of industrial indices tend to flatten recently with oscillations and declines and marginal improvement followed by renewed decline/stability in the final segment with jump in Mar-Apr 2013. Manufacturing fell in May-Jul 2013 with mild recovery in Aug 2013 and decline in Sep 2013. Manufacturing increased in Oct-Nov 2013 and fell in Dec 2013. Manufacturing rebounded in Jan-Feb 2014, decreasing in Mar 2014. Manufacturing increased in Apr 2014 and contracted in May 2014. Manufacturing expanded in Jun 2014 and contracted in Jul-Aug 2014. Manufacturing grew in Sep 2014 and contracted in Oct 2014.

Chart VF-2, France, Industrial Production Indices 2010-2014 Legend: CZ : Manufacturing – (C1) : Manufacture of food products and beverages – (C3) : Electrical and electronic equipment; machine equipment – (C4) : Manufacture of transport equipment – (C5) : Other manufacturing

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques

http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=10&date=20141210

France has been running a trade deficit fluctuating around €5,000 million as shown in Table VF-2. Exports increased 0.5 percent in Oct 2014 while imports increased 0.1 percent. The trade deficit decreased from revised €4721 million in Sep 2014 to €608 million in Oct 2014.

Table VF-2, France, Exports, Imports and Trade Balance, € Millions 

	Exports	Imports	Trade Balance
Oct 2014	36,928	41,536	-4,608
Sep	36,754	41,475	-4,721
Aug	36,210	41,215	-5,005
Jul	36,088	41,621	-5,533
Jun	36,693	41,924	-5,231
May	36,077	41,026	-4,949
Apr	36,086	39,946	-3,860
Mar	36,303	41,232	-4,929
Feb	36,376	39,677	-3,301
Jan	36,120	41,993	-5,873
Dec 2013	36,733	42,151	-5,418
Nov	35,699	41,196	-5,497
Oct	36,272	41,297	-5,025
Sep	36,454	42,299	-5,845
Aug	36,768	41,353	-4,585
Jul	36,684	41,804	-5,120
Jun	35,960	40,871	-4,911
May	36,033	41,780	-5,747
Apr	38,517	42,392	-3,875
Mar	36,169	40,930	-4,761
Feb	35,543	41,566	-6,023
Jan	36,609	41,821	-5,212
Dec 2012	37,043	42,502	-5,459
Dec 2011	35,765	41,203	-5,438
Dec 2010	33,754	39,355	-5,601

Source: France, Direction générale des douanes et droits indirects

http://lekiosque.finances.gouv.fr/AppChiffre/Portail_default.asp

Table VF-3 provides month and 12-month percentage changes of France’s exports and imports. Exports increased 0.5 percent in Oct 2014 and increased 1.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014. Imports increased 0.1 percent in Oct 2014 and increased 0.6 percent in 12 months. Growth of exports and imports has fluctuated in 2011, 2012 and 2013-2014 because of price surges of commodities and raw materials. Weak economic conditions worldwide also influence trade performance.

Table VF-3, France, Exports and Imports, Month and 12-Month ∆%

	Exports Month ∆%	Exports 12-Month ∆%	Imports Month ∆%	Imports 12-Month ∆%
Oct 2014	0.5	1.8	0.1	0.6
Jan 2014	-1.7	-1.3	-0.4	0.4
Dec 2013	2.9	-0.8	2.3	-0.8
Dec 2012		3.6		3.2
Dec 2011		6.0		4.7
Dec 2010		12.9		14.3
Dec 2009		-9.5		-2.1
Dec 2008		-6.7		-10.1
Dec 2007		5.6		8.0
Dec 2006		6.6		6.6
Dec 2005		11.8		15.6
Dec 2004		-3.7		5.8
Dec 2003		7.1		1.6

Source: France, Direction générale des douanes et droits indirects

http://lekiosque.finances.gouv.fr/AppChiffre/Portail_default.asp

Annual data for France’s exports, imports and trade balance are provided in Table VF-4. France’s trade balance deteriorated sharply from 2007 to 2011 with the deficit increasing from €42,494 million in 2007 to €74,506 million in 2011. Annual growth rates of exports have not been sufficiently high to compensate for growth of imports driven in part by commodity price increases. In 2012, the trade deficit declined to €67,299 million with growth of exports of 3.1 percent and of imports of 1.2 percent. The trade deficit declined to €61,161 million in 2013 with declines of exports of 1.2 percent and of 2.3 percent for imports.

Table VF-4, France, Exports, Imports and Balance Year € Millions and ∆%

	Exports € Millions	∆%	Imports € Millions	∆%	Balance € Millions
Oct 2014 12 Months	434,454		492,635		-58,181
Year
2013	436,601	-1.2	497,762	-2.3	-61,161
2012	441,964	3.1	509,263	1.2	-67,299
2011	428,605	8.5	503,111	12.4	-74,506
2010	395,039	14.0	447,483	14.2	-52,444
2009	346,481	-17.0	391,872	-17.3	-45,391
2008	417,636	2.7	473,853	5.5	-56,217
2007	406,487	3.0	448,981	5.8	-42,494
2006	394,621	9.5	424,549	10.4	-29,928
2005	360,376	4.4	384,588	9.6	-24,212
2004	345,256	5.4	350,996	7.0	-5,740
2003	327,653		327,884		-231

Source: France, Direction générale des douanes et droits indirects

http://lekiosque.finances.gouv.fr/AppChiffre/Portail_default.asp

VG Italy. Table VG-IT provides percentage changes in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier of Italy’s expenditure components in chained volume measures. GDP has been declining at sharper rates from minus 0.7 percent in IVQ2011 to minus 2.5 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.5 percent in IQ2013, minus 2.2 percent in IIQ2013 and minus 1.8 percent in IIIQ2013. GDP fell 1.2 percent in IVQ2013 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.3 percent in IQ2014 relative to a year earlier and decreased 0.4 percent in IIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. GDP fell 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier. The aggregate demand components of consumption and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) have been declining at faster rates. The rates of decline of GDP, consumption and GFCF were somewhat milder in IIIQ2013 and IVQ2013 than in IQ2013 and the final three quarters of 2012. Consumption fell 0.3 percent in IQ2014 and GFCF fell 1.4 percent. In IIQ2014, consumption increased 0.2 percent relative to a year earlier and GFCF fell 2.2 percent. GDP fell 0.5 percent in IIIQ2014 relative to a year earlier while consumption increased 0.4 percent and GFCF fell 3.1 percent.

Table VG-IT, Italy, GDP and Expenditure Components, Chained Volume Measures, Quarter ∆% on Same Quarter Year Earlier

	GDP	Imports	Consumption	GFCF	Exports
2014
IIIQ	-0.5	-0.7	0.4	-3.1	1.3
IIQ	-0.4	1.8	0.2	-2.2	2.5
IQ	-0.3	-0.1	-0.3	-1.4	1.5
2013
IVQ	-1.2	0.5	-1.1	-3.4	1.4
IIIQ	-1.8	-1.7	-2.2	-4.3	0.4
IIQ	-2.2	-4.1	-2.7	-6.2	0.4
IQ	-2.5	-5.0	-2.9	-7.6	1.3
2012
IVQ	-2.5	-7.6	-3.5	-7.8	1.3
IIIQ	-2.5	-8.0	-3.7	-8.1	2.5
IIQ	-2.4	-8.6	-3.6	-7.6	1.2
IQ	-1.9	-8.5	-3.0	-6.5	1.6
2011
IVQ	-0.7	-7.0	-2.1	-4.0	2.4
IIIQ	0.5	0.4	-0.8	-2.4	4.6
IIQ	1.3	3.7	0.4	-0.9	7.7
IQ	1.9	8.4	0.7	0.6	10.3
2010
IVQ	2.3	14.6	1.3	0.9	13.0
IIIQ	1.8	12.9	1.1	0.6	12.4
IIQ	1.9	14.2	1.0	-0.4	13.2
IQ	0.7	6.7	0.9	-3.3	6.8
2009
IVQ	-3.5	-6.3	0.2	-8.2	-9.3
IIIQ	-5.0	-12.2	-0.8	-12.6	-16.4
IIQ	-6.6	-17.9	-1.4	-13.6	-21.4
IQ	-6.9	-17.2	-1.8	-12.4	-22.8
2008
IVQ	-3.0	-8.2	-0.9	-8.3	-10.3
IIIQ	-1.9	-5.0	-0.8	-4.5	-3.9
IIQ	-0.2	-0.1	-0.3	-1.5	0.4
IQ	0.5	1.7	0.1	-1.0	2.9

GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/140552

The Markit/ADACI Business Activity Index increased from 50.8 in Oct to 51.8 in Nov (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e5d7ad3821eb4839a5d9e2736c52ae01). Phil Smith, Economist at Markit and author of the Italy Services PMI^®, finds weakening demand (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e5d7ad3821eb4839a5d9e2736c52ae01). The Markit/ADACI Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®), did not change from 49.0 in Oct to 49.0 in Nov (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/12bf0ee413cf4936b2706ca749234519). Growth of new export orders decelerated. Phil Smith, Economist at Markit and author of the Italian Manufacturing PMI^®, finds fragile conditions in manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/12bf0ee413cf4936b2706ca749234519). Table IT provides the country data table for Italy.

Table IT, Italy, Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index	Nov month ∆%: -0.2 Nov 12-month ∆%: 0.2 Blog 12/14/14
Producer Price Index	Oct month ∆%: -0.6 Oct 12-month ∆%: -1.6 Blog 11/30/14
GDP Growth	IIIQ2014/IIQ2014 SA ∆%: minus 0.1 IIIQ2014/IIQ2013 NSA ∆%: minus 0.5 Blog 3/17/13 6/16/13 8/11/13 9/15/13 11/17/13 12/15/13 2/16/14 3/16/14 5/18/14 6/15/14 8/10/14 8/31/14 10/19/14 11/16/14 12/7/14
Labor Report	Oct 2014 Participation rate 64.3% Employment ratio 55.6% Unemployment rate 13.2% Youth Unemployment 43.3% Blog 11/30/14
Industrial Production	Oct month ∆%: -0.1 12 months CA ∆%: -3.0 Blog 12/14/14
Retail Sales	Sep month ∆%: -0.1 Sep 12-month ∆%: -0.5 Blog 11/30/14
Business Confidence	Mfg Nov 96.3, Jul 99.1 Construction Nov 74.0, Jul 82.8 Blog 11/30/14
Trade Balance	Balance Aug SA €3532 million versus Jul €3059 Exports Aug month SA ∆%: 1.1; Imports Aug month ∆%: -0.4 Exports 12 months Aug NSA ∆%: -2.7 Imports 12 months NSA ∆%: -7.0 Blog 10/19/14

Links to blog comments in Table IT:

12/7/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/12/financial-risks-twenty-six-million.html

11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

10/19/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/imf-view-squeeze-of-economic-activity.html

8/31/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/geopolitical-and-financial-risks.html

8/10/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/volatility-of-valuations-of-risk_10.html

6/15/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financialgeopolitical-risks-recovery.html

5/18/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/world-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html

3/16/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-financial-risks-recovery-without.html

2/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/theory-and-reality-of-cyclical-slow.html

12/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html

11/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/risks-of-unwinding-monetary-policy.html

9/15/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

8/11/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/recovery-without-hiring-loss-of-full.html

6/16/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/recovery-without-hiring-seven-million.html

3/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html

Italy’s industrial production decreased 0.q percent in Oct 2014 seasonally adjusted and decreased 3.0 percent in 12 months calendar adjusted, as shown in Table VG-1. Industrial production fell 0.9 percent in Sep 2014 and decreased 2.7 percent in 12 months. Industrial production increased 0.2 percent in Aug 2014 and fell 0.7 percent in 12 months. Industrial production decreased 1.0 percent in Jul 2014 and decreased 1.6 percent in 12 months. Industrial production decreased 1.3 percent in May 2014 and fell 1.7 percent in 12 months. Industrial production increased 0.5 percent in Apr 2014 and 1.5 percent in 12 months. Industrial production decreased 0.5 percent in Mar 2014 and 0.2 percent in 12 months. Industrial production fell 0.5 percent in Feb 2014 but increased 0.4 percent in 12 months. Industrial production increased 1.0 percent in Jan 2014 and grew 1.3 percent in 12 months. Industrial production fell 0.9 percent in Dec 2013 and 1.2 percent in 12 months. Industrial production changed 0.0 percent in Nov 2013 and increased 0.9 percent CA relative to a year earlier. Industrial production increased 0.5 percent in Oct 2013 and fell 0.4 percent in 12 months. Industrial production increased 0.9 percent in Sep 2013 and fell 2.9 percent in 12 months. In Aug 2013, industrial production decreased 0.7 percent and fell 4.6 percent in 12 months. Industrial production changed 0.0 percent in Jul 2013 and fell 3.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2013. In the quarter Sep-Nov 2012, industrial production fell cumulatively 4.1 percent, at the annual equivalent rate of 15.6 percent. Industrial production fell 7.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2012. There have been negative changes with oscillations in monthly industrial production. Industrial production fell 18.8 percent in 2009 after falling 3.2 percent in 2008.

Table VG-1, Italy, Industrial Production ∆%

			Index CA	∆% CA	Index	∆%
2012	-	-	94.7	-6.4	94.3	-6.1
2013	-	-	91.7	-3.2	91.4	-3.1
2013	Index SA	Quarter ∆%	Index CA	4Q ∆%	Index	∆%
IVQ	92.0	0.5	92.5	-0.2	92.3	-0.3
2014
IQ	91.8	-0.2	92.7	0.4	91.5	-0.1
IIQ	91.2	-0.7	94.9	0.0	93.1	-1.6
IIIQ	90.3	-1.0	85.6	-1.8	85.8	-1.4
2012	Index	Month	Index CA	12 Month ∆%	Index	∆%
Oct	92.8	-1.4	101.2	-5.7	103.4	0.4
Nov	91.7	-1.2	95.6	-7.7	96.0	-7.7
Dec	92.3	0.7	81.3	-7.1	78.4	-10.0
2013
Jan	92.3	0.0	86.0	-3.3	89.0	-0.2
Feb	91.8	-0.5	92.1	-4.5	90.9	-8.2
Mar	91.4	-0.4	98.8	-5.8	94.8	-10.0
Apr	90.9	-0.5	88.6	-4.9	89.0	-0.4
May	91.8	1.0	99.3	-4.6	100.6	-4.6
Jun	91.6	-0.2	96.8	-2.3	94.2	-5.3
Jul	91.6	0.0	104.5	-3.8	106.8	-0.7
Aug	91.0	-0.7	58.6	-4.6	57.5	-7.6
Sep	91.8	0.9	98.5	-2.9	96.7	0.2
Oct	92.3	0.5	100.8	-0.4	103.0	-0.4
Nov	92.3	0.0	96.5	0.9	93.9	-2.2
Dec	91.4	-1.0	80.3	-1.2	79.9	1.9
2014
Jan	92.3	1.0	87.0	1.2	87.3	-1.9
Feb	91.8	-0.5	92.5	0.4	91.3	0.4
Mar	91.3	-0.5	98.6	-0.2	96.0	1.3
Apr	91.8	0.5	89.9	1.5	89.0	0.0
May	90.6	-1.3	97.6	-1.7	95.8	-4.8
Jun	91.3	0.8	97.1	0.3	94.5	0.3
Jul	90.4	-1.0	102.8	-1.6	105.0	-1.7
Aug	90.6	0.2	58.2	-0.7	55.4	-3.7
Sep	89.8	-0.9	95.8	-2.7	97.0	0.3
Oct	89.7	-0.1	97.8	-3.0	99.9	-3.0

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/141667

Chart VG-1 provides 12-month percentage changes of Italy’s index of industrial production. Industrial production improved from decline of 0.4 percent the 12 months ending in Oct 2013 to increase of 0.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2014 bug decrease of 3.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014.

Chart VG-1, Italy, Industrial Production, 12-Month Percentage Changes

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

http://www.istat.it/en/

VH United Kingdom. Annual data in Table VH-UK show the strong impact of the global recession in the UK with decline of GDP of 4.3 percent in 2009 after dropping 0.3 percent in 2008. Recovery of 1.9 percent in 2010 is relatively low in comparison with annual growth rates in 2007 and earlier years. Growth was only 1.6 percent in 2011 and 0.7 percent in 2012. Growth increased to 1.7 percent in 2013. The bottom part of Table VH-UK provides average growth rates of UK GDP since 1948. The UK economy grew at 2.6 percent per year on average between 1948 and 2013, which is relatively high for an advanced economy. The growth rate of GDP between 2000 and 2007 is higher at 2.9 percent. Growth in the current cyclical expansion has been only at 1.2 percent as advanced economies struggle with weak internal demand and world trade. GDP in 2013 higher by 1.2 percent relative to 2007.

Table VH-UK, UK, Gross Domestic Product, ∆%

	∆% on Prior Year
1998	3.5
1999	3.2
2000	3.8
2001	2.7
2002	2.5
2003	4.3
2004	2.5
2005	2.8
2006	3.0
2007	2.6
2008	-0.3
2009	-4.3
2010	1.9
2011	1.6
2012	0.7
2013	1.7
Average Growth Rates ∆% per Year
1948-2013	2.6
1950-1959	3.1
1960-1969	3.1
1970-1979	2.6
1980-1989	3.1
1990-1999	2.2
2000-2007	2.9
2007-2012*	-0.6
2007-2013*	1.2
2000-2013	1.6

*Absolute change from 2007 to 2012 an from 2007 to 2013

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/second-estimate-of-gdp/q3-2014/index.html

The Business Activity Index of the Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI^® increased from 56.2 in Oct to 58.6 in Nov (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c5ca3e98654d444d8c2026c74987e333). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds the combined indices consistent with the UK economy growing at around 0.7 percent in IVQ2014 and 3.0 percent in 2014 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c5ca3e98654d444d8c2026c74987e333). The Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^® (PMI^®) increased to 53.5 in Nov from 53.3 in Oct (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e4706e64ddd7478ab2d7fdc90edb2364). New export orders were weak in Nov with restrained global markets and strong UK currency with decreases in business from the European Union, Russia, Scandinavia and emerging markets. Rob Dobson, Senior Economist at Markit that compiles the Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI^®, finds that manufacturing conditions are strong (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e4706e64ddd7478ab2d7fdc90edb2364). Table UK provides the economic indicators for the United Kingdom.

Table UK, UK Economic Indicators

CPI	Oct month ∆%: 0.1 Oct 12-month ∆%: 1.3 Blog 11/23/14
Output/Input Prices	Output Prices: Oct 12-month NSA ∆%: -0.5; excluding food, petroleum ∆%: 0.9 Input Prices: Oct 12-month NSA ∆%: -8.4 Excluding ∆%: -2.7 Blog 11/23/14
GDP Growth	IIIQ2014 prior quarter ∆% 0.7; year earlier same quarter ∆%: 2.9 Blog 3/31/13 4/28/13 5/26/13 7/28/13 8/25/13 9/29/13 10/27/13 12/1/13 12/22/13 2/2/14 3/2/14 4/6/14 5/4/14 5/25/14 6/29/14 7/27/14 8/17/14 10/5/14 10/26/14 11/30/14
Industrial Production	Oct 2014/Oct 2013 ∆%: Production Industries 1.1; Manufacturing 1.7 Blog 12/14/14
Retail Sales	Aug month ∆%: 0.4 Aug 12-month ∆%: 3.9 Blog 10/12/14
Labor Market	Jul-Sep Unemployment Rate: 6.0%; Claimant Count 2.8%; Earnings Growth 1.0% Blog 10/19/14 LMGDP 11/16/14
GDP and the Labor Market	IIIQ2014 Weekly Hours 103.4, GDP 103.3, Employment 103.7 IQ2008 =100 GDP IIIQ14 103.3 IQ2008=100 Blog 11/16/14
Trade Balance	Balance SA Aug minus ₤2024 million Exports Oct ∆%: 0.5; Aug-Oct ∆%: -2.4 Imports Oct ∆%: -1.3 Aug-Oct ∆%: -5.6 Blog 12/14/14

Links to blog comments in Table UK:

11/30/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/valuations-of-risk-financial-assets.html

11/23/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/squeeze-of-economic-activity-by-carry.html

11/16/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/11/fluctuating-financial-variables.html

10/26/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/financial-oscillations-world-inflation.html

10/12/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/global-financial-volatility-recovery.html

10/5/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/10/world-financial-turbulence-twenty-seven.html

8/17/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/08/weakening-world-economic-growth.html

7/27/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/world-inflation-waves-united-states.html

6/29/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/financial-indecision-mediocre-cyclical.html

5/25/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

5/4/2014 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/financial-volatility-mediocre-cyclical.html

4/6/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/interest-rate-risks-twenty-eight.html

3/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/03/financial-risks-slow-cyclical-united.html

2/2/14 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html

12/22/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html

12/1/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/exit-risks-of-zero-interest-rates-world.html

10/27/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/10/twenty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html

9/29/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/09/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

8/25/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/interest-rate-risks-duration-dumping.html

7/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html

5/26/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html

4/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_28.html

03/31/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html

The UK Office for National Statistics provides the output of production industries with revisions. Table VH-1 incorporates the latest available data for Oct 2014 with revised weights (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/iop/index-of-production/october-2014/index.html). Manufacturing accounts for 69.4 percent of the production industries of the UK and increased 1.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014. Capital goods industries increased 2.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2014 after increasing 2.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2014, 2.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2014 and 1.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Jul 2014. Output of capital goods industries decreased 1.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013, increasing 1.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2013. Capital goods industries had been growing at very high rates during the current cyclical recovery but falling from the unsustainable high of 12.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2011. Mining and quarrying increased 12.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2013 and 4.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013, decreasing 2.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2014. Mining and quarrying increased 4.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2014. The 12-month rates of growth of the entire index of production industries registered declines for all 12 months from Mar 2011 to Aug 2013 with exception of 0.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2013. With exception of most months for capital goods and Sep to Dec 2012 for consumer durables, 12-month percentage changes of all segments are mostly negative from Jan to Dec 2012. Energy and mining have been drivers of decline. The upper part of Table VH-1 provides rates of change of yearly output. Manufacturing output fell 9.4 percent in 2009 after falling 2.8 percent in 2008 but grew at 4.7 percent in the initial phase of the recovery in 2010 and 1.8 percent in 2011 but fell 1.3 percent in 2012 and declined 0.7 percent in 2013.

Table VH-1, UK, Output of the Production Industries, Chained Volume Indices of Gross Value Added, 12-Month ∆%

	PROD IND	MNG	MFG	CON DUR	CON NDUR	CAP	ENERGY
2009	-8.8	-9.1	-9.4	-6.2	-0.2	-11.1	-5.7
2010	3.1	-3.9	4.7	-2.6	-0.3	10.7	-2.1
2011	-0.8	-14.1	1.8	0.2	-0.8	6.6	-10.7
2012	-2.7	-10.8	-1.3	-2.0	-3.4	1.4	-8.7
2013	-0.5	-2.5	-0.7	-1.8	-1.0	1.5	-3.8

		PROD IND	MNG	MFG	CON DUR	CON NDUR	CAP	ENERGY
2012	Aug	-1.1	-	-1.4	-2.0	-4.3	1.3	-3.1
	Sep	-4.1	-18.4	-1.1	1.8	-1.5	0.7	-14.6
	Oct	-4.6	-21.5	-1.8	5.9	-3.8	0.3	-14.5
	Nov	-3.3	-13.7	-2.4	1.9	-5.1	-0.7	-8.8
	Dec	-2.5	-8.7	-1.8	2.4	-5.4	2.5	-6.4
2013	Jan	-3.3	-7.0	-3.6	0.4	-6.2	1.8	-5.6
	Feb	-2.7	-9.1	-2.5	-4.5	-5.1	3.0	-8.8
	Mar	-1.9	-13.1	-1.1	2.0	-3.6	3.6	-6.3
	Apr	-2.0	-7.0	-1.4	-1.6	-0.3	2.7	-6.2
	May	-2.1	-3.0	-2.3	-3.6	1.8	-0.3	-4.6
	Jun	0.9	-2.9	1.5	0.3	1.7	2.6	-5.8
	Jul	-1.7	-5.7	-1.5	-2.5	0.6	0.2	-6.1
	Aug	-1.9	-9.0	-1.0	-1.5	-2.3	0.4	-8.4
	Sep	2.6	14.1	0.2	-1.7	-1.5	1.9	6.4
	Oct	2.8	12.4	1.5	-6.5	0.5	2.3	2.9
	Nov	1.8	2.4	1.5	-	0.6	1.6	-0.7
	Dec	1.3	4.0	0.8	-2.7	2.6	-1.9	-0.2
2014	Jan	1.6	-2.1	2.1	1.0	-2.4	1.2	-4.8
	Feb	2.7	5.5	3.4	7.1	1.8	2.2	-0.2
	Mar	2.5	9.8	2.6	0.3	2.4	1.0	-0.3
	Apr	2.8	4.0	4.2	3.0	2.0	3.1	-3.6
	May	1.8	3.9	2.4	2.5	-1.3	2.5	-1.8
	Jun	0.8	-1.8	1.8	2.5	-1.8	2.6	-3.0
	Jul	1.3	-1.8	2.4	3.9	-0.5	1.7	-3.1
	Aug	1.4	-4.0	3.0	4.3	2.8	2.7	-4.2
	Sep	0.8	-3.0	2.2	6.6	0.9	2.5	-4.4
	Oct	1.1	1.0	1.7	6.5	0.8	2.1	-0.1

Notes: PROD IND: Production Industries; MNG: Mining; MFG: Manufacturing; ENGY: Energy; CON DUR: Consumer Durables; CONS NDUR: Consumer Nondurables; CAP: Capital Goods

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/iop/index-of-production/october-2014/index.html

Percentage changes in the production industries and major components in a month relative to the prior month are shown in Table VH-2. The UK index of production decreased 0.1 percent in Oct 2014 with manufacturing decreasing 0.7 percent, capital goods decreasing 0.9 percent and energy increasing 1.6 percent. The UK index of production increased 0.7 percent in Sep 2014 with increase of manufacturing of 0.6 percent and increase of capital goods of 1.9 percent. Energy increased 1.5 percent. The UK index of production decreased 0.2 percent in Aug 2014 with increase of manufacturing of 0.1 percent and decrease of capital goods of 0.6 percent. Energy decreased 1.2 percent and mining and quarrying decreased 1.8 percent. Fluctuations of monthly production are quite wide.

Table VH-2, UK, Output of the Production Industries, Chained Volume Indices of Gross Value Added, Latest Month on Previous Month ∆%

		PROD IND	MNG	MFG	CON DUR	CON NDUR	CAP	ENERGY
2012	Aug	-0.2	4.1	-1.0	-0.9	0.3	-1.8	2.4
	Sep	-3.1	-18.5	0.3	0.9	0.7	0.7	-12.5
	Oct	-0.6	-0.5	-1.5	2.7	-2.6	-1.0	0.6
	Nov	0.7	6.7	-0.3	-4.2	-0.7	0.1	3.8
	Dec	0.9	1.3	1.4	2.1	0.3	3.2	0.4
2013	Jan	-0.9	1.0	-1.3	0.1	0.8	-1.6	0.5
	Feb	0.2	-1.0	-0.3	-7.5	-0.2	-1.0	-1.4
	Mar	0.2	-4.7	1.2	7.0	-	2.0	-0.7
	Apr	-0.2	3.7	-0.9	-0.3	1.0	-1.0	1.3
	May	0.5	2.5	0.4	-2.6	2.3	-1.2	0.4
	Jun	1.0	1.7	1.2	0.9	-0.7	1.9	-1.0
	Jul	-0.3	0.3	-0.5	-	-0.5	0.1	0.8
	Aug	-0.4	0.5	-0.6	-	-2.6	-1.6	-
	Sep	1.3	2.2	1.4	0.8	1.6	2.1	1.7
	Oct	-0.4	-2.0	-0.2	-2.3	-0.7	-0.6	-2.7
	Nov	-0.3	-2.8	-0.3	2.5	-0.6	-0.6	0.2
	Dec	0.4	2.8	0.6	-0.6	2.2	-0.4	0.9
2014	Jan	-0.6	-4.9	-	3.9	-4.0	1.5	-4.1
	Feb	1.3	6.7	1.0	-1.8	4.0	-	3.4
	Mar	-0.1	-0.7	0.4	0.2	0.6	0.7	-0.8
	Apr	0.1	-1.8	0.7	2.4	0.6	1.1	-2.1
	May	-0.4	2.4	-1.4	-3.1	-1.0	-1.8	2.3
	Jun	-	-3.9	0.6	0.9	-1.1	2.1	-2.1
	Jul	0.2	0.3	0.2	1.4	0.8	-0.8	0.7
	Aug	-0.2	-1.8	0.1	0.4	0.6	-0.6	-1.2
	Sep	0.7	3.4	0.6	3.0	-0.2	1.9	1.5
	Oct	-0.1	2.0	-0.7	-2.4	-0.8	-0.9	1.6

Notes: PROD IND: Production Industries; MNG: Mining; MFG: Manufacturing; ENGY: Energy; CON DUR: Consumer Durables; CONS NDUR: Consumer Nondurables; CAP: Capital Goods

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/iop/index-of-production/october-2014/index.html

Weights of components of the production index and contributions by components to the monthly and 12-month percentage changes of volume are provided by the UK Office for National Statistics and shown in Table VH-3. The 12-month rate of output of the production industries of 1.1 percent was driven by positive contribution of 1.20 percentage points by manufacturing and 0.14 percentage points by mining and quarrying. The contribution of manufacturing is strong because of its share of 69.4 percent in the production index with growth of 1.7 percent in 12 months. The contributions do not add exactly because of rounding. Manufacturing decreased 0.7 percent in Oct 2014, deducting 0.49 percentage points. Mining increased 2.0 percent in Oct 2014, adding 0.28 percentage points. Electricity increased 0.6 percent in Oct, adding 0.04 percentage points.

Table VH-3, UK, Weights of Components, Volume 12-Month and Month ∆% and Percentage Point Contributions of Production Industries by Components

	Weight %	Volume 12-Month ∆% Ending in Oct 2014	% Point Contrib.	Volume Month ∆% Oct 2014	% Point Contrib.
PROD IND	100.0	1.1	1.1	-0.1	-0.1
MNG	15.7	1.0	0.14	2.0	0.28
Division 06	12.9	0.2	0.02	2.8	0.29
MFG	69.4	1.7	1.20	-0.7	-0.49
ELEC	7.1	-0.7	-0.05	0.6	0.04
WATER & SEW	7.9	-2.3	-0.20	0.07	0.06

Notes: Cont: Contribution; PROD IND: Index of Production; MNG: Mining and Quarrying (of which 14.4 percent of the total weight in oil and gas extraction); MNG 06: Subdivision of Mining including oil and gas extraction; MFG: Manufacturing; ELEC: Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning; WATER & SEW: water supply, sewerage and waste management

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/uktrade/uk-trade/october-2014/index.html

Table VH-4 provides the breakdown of production in 12-month and monthly growth and percentage contributions.

Table VH-4, UK, Growth Rates and Percentage Point Contributions to the Index of Production

Sector	Summary Description	% of production	Month on same month a year ago growth (%)	Contribution to production (% points)
IoP	Index of Production	100.0	1.1	1.1
B	Total Mining & Quarrying	15.7	1.0	0.14
5	Coal & Lignite	0.1	40.7	0.02
6	Crude petroleum & Natural gas	12.9	0.2	0.02
789	Other mining & Quarrying	2.6	2.8	0.10
C	Total Manufacturing	69.4	1.7	1.20
CA	Food, beverages & tobacco	10.1	8.0	0.79
CB	Textiles & leather products	2.2	-10.0	-0.22
CC	Wood, paper & printing	4.9	3.8	0.18
CD	Coke & petroleum	1.4	0.1	0.00
CE	Chemical Products	4.0	1.7	0.07
CF	Pharmaceutical Products	6.0	-9.2	-0.52
CG	Rubber & plastic products	5.3	11.2	0.58
CH	Metal products	7.4	-2.8	-0.22
CI	Computer, electronic & optical	4.4	6.1	0.26
CJ	Electrical equipment	2.0	-7.4	-0.16
CK	Machinery & equipment	5.4	0.0	0.00
CL	Transport equipment	10.3	1.2	0.14
CM	Other manufacturing & repair	6.1	4.8	0.29
D	Total Electricity & Gas	7.1	-0.7	-0.05
35.1	Electric power generation, transmission & distribution	4.7	-2.5	-0.12
35.2-3	Manufacture of gas; distribution of gaseous fuels through mains; steam & aircon supply	2.4	3.7	0.08
E	Total Water	7.9	-2.3	-0.20
36	Water collection, Treatment & Supply	2.1	-1	-0.02
37	Sewerage	2.4	-8.1	-0.21
38	Waste Collection, Treatment & Disposal Activities; Materials Recovery	3.3	0.9	0.03
39	Remediation Activities & Other Waste Management Services	0.1	3.8	0.00

Sector	Summary Description	% of production	Month on previous month growth (%)	Contribution to production (% points)
IoP	Index of Production	100.0	-0.1	-0.1
B	Total Mining & Quarrying	15.7	2.0	0.28
5	Coal & Lignite	0.1	-4.4	0.00
6	Crude petroleum & Natural gas	12.9	2.8	0.29
789	Other mining & Quarrying	2.6	0.0	-1.77
C	Total Manufacturing	69.4	-0.7	-0.49
CA	Food, beverages & tobacco	10.1	0.3	0.04
CB	Textiles & leather products	2.2	-3.2	-0.06
CC	Wood, paper & printing	4.9	0.3	0.02
CD	Coke & petroleum	1.4	1.5	0.02
CE	Chemical Products	4.0	-2.5	-0.10
CF	Pharmaceutical Products	6.0	-3.1	-0.16
CG	Rubber & plastic products	5.3	1.0	0.05
CH	Metal products	7.4	-0.1	-0.01
CI	Computer, electronic & optical	4.4	-4.5	-0.21
CJ	Electrical equipment	2.0	-3.4	-0.07
CK	Machinery & equipment	5.4	-1.0	-0.05
CL	Transport equipment	10.3	0.5	0.07
CM	Other manufacturing & repair	6.1	-0.1	-0.01
D	Total Electricity & Gas	7.1	0.6	0.04
35.1	Electric power generation, transmission & distribution	4.7	1.5	0.07
35.2-3	Manufacture of gas; distribution of gaseous fuels through mains; steam & aircon supply	2.4	-1.3	-0.03
E	Total Water	7.9	0.7	0.06
36	Water collection, Treatment & Supply	2.1	-0.3	-0.01
37	Sewerage	2.4	1.4	0.03
38	Waste Collection, Treatment & Disposal Activities; Materials Recovery	3.3	0.9	0.03
39	Remediation Activities & Other Waste Management Services	0.1	1.5	0.00

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/iop/index-of-production/october-2014/index.html

The UK’s trade account is in Table VH-5. In Oct 2014, the UK ran a deficit in trade of goods and services (total trade) of ₤2024 million. The deficit in trade of goods was ₤9620 million and ₤8787 million in goods excluding oil. A surplus in services of ₤7596 million contributed to reducing the overall deficit in goods and services (-₤9629 million plus ₤7596 million equal to ₤2024 million). Services have contributed to lower deficits and have softened the impact of the global recession on the UK economy. Exports of goods and services increased 0.5 percent in Oct 2014 and decreased 2.4 percent in the quarter Aug 2014-Oct 2014 relative to the same quarter a year earlier with imports decreasing 1.3 percent in Oct and decreasing 5.6 percent in Aug 2014-Oct 2014 relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Excluding oil, UK exports of goods increased 1.0 percent in Oct and fell 3.7 percent in Aug 2014-Oct 2014 relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Imports of goods excluding oil increased 0.1 percent in Oct and fell 3.1 percent in Aug 2014-Oct 2014 relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Services exports changed 0.0 percent in Oct and increased 1.6 percent in Aug 2014-Oct 2014 relative to the same quarter a year earlier while services imports increased 0.9 percent in Oct and decreased 10.6 percent in Aug 2014-Oct 2014 relative to the same quarter a year earlier.

Table VH-5, Value of UK Trade in Goods and Services, Balance of Payments Basis, ₤ Million SA and ∆%

	₤ Million SA Oct 2014	Month ∆%    Oct 2014	Aug 2014-Oct 2014 ∆% Aug 2013-Oct 2013
Total Trade
Exports	41,986	0.5	-2.4
Imports	44,010	-1.3	-5.6
Balance	-2,024
Trade in Goods
Exports	24,336	0.9	-5.1
Imports	33,956	-1.9	-4.1
Balance	-9,620
Trade in Goods Excluding Oil
Exports	21,652	1.0	-3.7
Imports	30,439	0.1	-3.1
Balance	-8,787
Trade in Services
Exports	17,650	0.0	1.6
Imports	10,054	0.9	-10.6
Balance	7,596

Source: UK Office for National Statistics

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/uktrade/uk-trade/october-2014/index.html

© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014.