Recovery without Hiring, Loss of Full-time Jobs, Youth and Middle Age Unemployment, Risks of Steepening Yield Curve and Peaking Valuations of Risk Financial Assets, United States International Trade, Declining Real Salaries, World Economic Slowdown and Global Recession Risk
Carlos M. Pelaez
© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013
Executive Summary
I Recovery without Hiring
IA1 Hiring Collapse
IA2 Labor Underutilization
IA3 Ten Million Fewer Full-time Job
IA4 Youth and Middle-Age Unemployment
II United States International Trade
III World Financial Turbulence
IIIA Financial Risks
IIIE Appendix Euro Zone Survival Risk
IIIF Appendix on Sovereign Bond Valuation
IV Global Inflation
V World Economic Slowdown
VA United States
VB Japan
VC China
VD Euro Area
VE Germany
VF France
VG Italy
VH United Kingdom
VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets
VII Economic Indicators
VIII Interest Rates
IX Conclusion
References
Appendixes
Appendix I The Great Inflation
IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies
IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact
IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort
IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis
IIIGA Monetary Policy with Deficit Financing of Economic Growth
IIIGB Adjustment during the Debt Crisis of the 1980s
VB Japan. Table VB-BOJF provides the forecasts of economic activity and inflation in Japan by the majority of members of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, which is part of their Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130711a.pdf). For fiscal 2013, the forecast is of growth of GDP between 2.5 and 3.0 percent, with the all items CPI less fresh food of 0.5 to 0.8 percent. The critical difference is forecast of the CPI excluding fresh food of 2.7 to 3.6 percent in 2014 and 1.6 to 2.9 percent in 2015. The new monetary policy of the Bank of Japan aims to increase inflation to 2 percent. These forecasts are biannual in Apr and Oct. The Cabinet Office, Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan released on Jan 22, 2013, a “Joint Statement of the Government and the Bank of Japan on Overcoming Deflation and Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130122c.pdf) with the important change of increasing the inflation target of monetary policy from 1 percent to 2 percent:
“The Bank of Japan conducts monetary policy based on the principle that the policy shall be aimed at achieving price stability, thereby contributing to the sound development of the national economy, and is responsible for maintaining financial system stability. The Bank aims to achieve price stability on a sustainable basis, given that there are various factors that affect prices in the short run.
The Bank recognizes that the inflation rate consistent with price stability on a sustainable basis will rise as efforts by a wide range of entities toward strengthening competitiveness and growth potential of Japan's economy make progress. Based on this recognition, the Bank sets the price stability target at 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index.
Under the price stability target specified above, the Bank will pursue monetary easing and aim to achieve this target at the earliest possible time. Taking into consideration that it will take considerable time before the effects of monetary policy permeate the economy, the Bank will ascertain whether there is any significant risk to the sustainability of economic growth, including from the accumulation of financial imbalances.”
The Bank of Japan also provided explicit analysis of its view on price stability in a “Background note regarding the Bank’s thinking on price stability” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/data/rel130123a1.pdf http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130123a.htm/). The Bank of Japan also amended “Principal terms and conditions for the Asset Purchase Program” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130122a.pdf): “Asset purchases and loan provision shall be conducted up to the maximum outstanding amounts by the end of 2013. From January 2014, the Bank shall purchase financial assets and provide loans every month, the amount of which shall be determined pursuant to the relevant rules of the Bank.”
Financial markets in Japan and worldwide were shocked by new bold measures of “quantitative and qualitative monetary easing” by the Bank of Japan (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The objective of policy is to “achieve the price stability target of 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) at the earliest possible time, with a time horizon of about two years” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). The main elements of the new policy are as follows:
- Monetary Base Control. Most central banks in the world pursue interest rates instead of monetary aggregates, injecting bank reserves to lower interest rates to desired levels. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has shifted back to monetary aggregates, conducting money market operations with the objective of increasing base money, or monetary liabilities of the government, at the annual rate of 60 to 70 trillion yen. The BOJ estimates base money outstanding at “138 trillion yen at end-2012) and plans to increase it to “200 trillion yen at end-2012 and 270 trillion yen at end 2014” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
- Maturity Extension of Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds. Purchases of bonds will be extended even up to bonds with maturity of 40 years with the guideline of extending the average maturity of BOJ bond purchases from three to seven years. The BOJ estimates the current average maturity of Japanese government bonds (JGB) at around seven years. The BOJ plans to purchase about 7.5 trillion yen per month (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/rel130404d.pdf). Takashi Nakamichi, Tatsuo Ito and Phred Dvorak, wiring on “Bank of Japan mounts bid for revival,” on Apr 4, 2013, published in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323646604578401633067110420.html ), find that the limit of maturities of three years on purchases of JGBs was designed to avoid views that the BOJ would finance uncontrolled government deficits.
- Seigniorage. The BOJ is pursuing coordination with the government that will take measures to establish “sustainable fiscal structure with a view to ensuring the credibility of fiscal management” (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf).
- Diversification of Asset Purchases. The BOJ will engage in transactions of exchange traded funds (ETF) and real estate investment trusts (REITS) and not solely on purchases of JGBs. Purchases of ETFs will be at an annual rate of increase of one trillion yen and purchases of REITS at 30 billion yen.
Table VB-BOJF, Bank of Japan, Forecasts of the Majority of Members of the Policy Board, % Year on Year
| Fiscal Year | Real GDP | CPI All Items Less Fresh Food | Excluding Effects of Consumption Tax Hikes |
| 2013 | |||
| Jul 2013 | +2.5 to +3.0 [+2.8] | +0.5 to +0.8 [+0.6] | |
| Apr 2013 | +2.4 to +3.0 [+2.9] | +0.4 to +0.8 [+0.7] | |
| 2014 | |||
| Jul 2013 | +0.8 to +1.5 [+1.3] | +2.7 to +3.6 [+3.3] | +0.7 to +1.6 [+1.3] |
| Apr 2013 | +1.0 to +1.5 [+1.4] | +2.7 to +3.6 [+3.4] | +0.7 to +1.6 [+1.4] |
| 2015 | |||
| Jul 2013 | +1.3 to +1.9 [+1.5] | +1.6 to +2.9 [+2.6] | +0.9 to +2.2 [+1.9] |
| Apr 2013 | +1.4 to +1.9 [+1.6] | +1.6 to +2.9 [+2.6] | +0.9 to +2.2 [+1.9] |
Figures in brackets are the median of forecasts of Policy Board members
Source: Policy Board, Bank of Japan
http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130711a.pdf
Private-sector activity in Japan expanded with the Markit Composite Output PMI™ Index decreasing from 52.3 in Jun to 50.7 in Jul (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f9dc3d734ac8426192c88ddcb88e2093). Claudia Tillbrooke, Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds that the survey data suggest continuing growth of the economy of Japan but concern on future performance (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f9dc3d734ac8426192c88ddcb88e2093). The Markit Business Activity Index of Services decreased from 52.1 in Jun to 50.6 in Jul (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f9dc3d734ac8426192c88ddcb88e2093). Claudia Tillbrooke, Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds doubts in stagnation of employment and new orders (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f9dc3d734ac8426192c88ddcb88e2093). Markit/JMMA Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™), seasonally adjusted, decreased from from 52.3 in Jun, which is the highest reading in 28 months, to 50.7 in Jul (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/a4089748b4f0420abec9564566928b16). New orders grew for a fifth consecutive month with support by yen depreciation. Claudia Tillbrooke, Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds manufacturing expanding with deceleration of output and new orders (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/a4089748b4f0420abec9564566928b16).Table JPY provides the country data table for Japan.
Table JPY, Japan, Economic Indicators
| Historical GDP and CPI | 1981-2010 Real GDP Growth and CPI Inflation 1981-2010 |
| Corporate Goods Prices | Jun ∆% +0.1 |
| Consumer Price Index | Jun NSA ∆% 0.0; Jun 12 months NSA ∆% 0.2 |
| Real GDP Growth | IQ2013 ∆%: 1.0 on IVQ2012; IQ2013 SAAR 4.1; |
| Employment Report | Jun Unemployed 2.60 million Change in unemployed since last year: minus 280 thousand |
| All Industry Indices | May month SA ∆% 1.1 Blog 7/21/13 |
| Industrial Production | Jun SA month ∆%: -3.3 |
| Machine Orders | Total May ∆% 12.0 Private ∆%: 12.4 May ∆% Excluding Volatile Orders 10.5 |
| Tertiary Index | Jun month SA ∆% -0.3 |
| Wholesale and Retail Sales | May 12 months: |
| Family Income and Expenditure Survey | Jun 12-month ∆% total nominal consumption -0.1, real -0.4 Blog 8/4/13 |
| Trade Balance | Exports Jun 12 months ∆%: 7.4 Imports Jun 12 months ∆% 11.8 Blog 7/28/13 |
Links to blog comments in Table JPY:
8/4/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/risks-of-steepening-yield-curve-and.html
7/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html
7/21/2013 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/tapering-quantitative-easing-policy-and.html
7/14/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/recovery-without-hiring-tapering.html
6/30/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/tapering-quantitative-easing-policy-and.html
6/16/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/recovery-without-hiring-seven-million.html
8/9/11 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2011/08/turbulence-in-world-financial-markets.html
The tertiary activity index of Japan decreased 0.3 percent SA in Jun 2013 and increased 1.0 percent NSA in the 12 months ending in Jun 2013, as shown in Table VB-1. The index is showing significant volatility with increases of 1.3 percent in Feb 2013 and 1.3 percent in May 2013 but decreases in multiple months. The tertiary activity index fell 5.2 percent in 2009, growing 1.3 percent in 2010, 0.1 percent in 2011 and 1.4 percent in 2012.
Table VB-1, Japan, Tertiary Activity Index, ∆%
| Month ∆% SA | 12 Months ∆% NSA | |
| Jun 2013 | -0.3 | 1.0 |
| May | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Apr | -0.5 | 1.3 |
| Mar | 0.2 | 0.7 |
| Feb | 1.3 | -1.6 |
| Jan | -0.8 | 0.1 |
| Dec 2012 | 0.2 | -0.1 |
| Nov | -0.1 | 1.0 |
| Oct | 0.2 | 1.3 |
| Sep | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Aug | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Jul | -0.3 | 0.8 |
| Jun | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| May | 0.5 | 3.1 |
| Apr | -0.2 | 2.4 |
| Mar | -0.3 | 4.2 |
| Feb | 0.2 | 2.4 |
| Jan | -0.8 | 0.3 |
| Calendar Year | ||
| 2012 | 1.4 | |
| 2011 | 0.1 | |
| 2010 | 1.3 | |
| 2009 | -5.2 | |
| 2008 | -1.0 | |
| 2007 | 1.0 | |
| 2006 | 1.8 | |
| 2005 | 1.9 | |
| 2004 | 1.8 |
Source: http://www.meti.go.jp/english/statistics/index.html
Month and 12-month rates of growth of the tertiary activity index of Japan and components in Jun 2013 are provided in Table VB-2. Electricity, gas, heat supply and water decreased 1.2 percent in Jun 2013 and increased 0.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2013. Wholesale and retail trade decreased 0.2 percent in the month of Jun and decreased 1.9 percent in 12 months. Information and communications increased 2.5 percent in Jun and increased 3.8 percent in 12 months.
Table VB-2, Japan, Tertiary Index and Components, Month and 12-Month Percentage Changes ∆%
| Jun 2013 | Weight | Month ∆% SA | 12 Months ∆% NSA |
| Tertiary Index | 10,000.0 | -0.3 | 1.0 |
| Electricity, Gas, Heat Supply & Water | 372.9 | -1.2 | 0.4 |
| Information & Communications | 951.2 | 2.5 | 3.8 |
| Wholesale & Retail Trade | 2,641.2 | -0.2 | -1.9 |
| Finance & Insurance | 971.1 | -0.3 | 6.3 |
| Real Estate & Goods Rental & Leasing | 903.4 | -0.9 | -0.4 |
| Scientific Research, Professional & Technical Services | 551.3 | -2.3 | 2.3 |
| Accommodations, Eating, Drinking | 496.0 | -0.1 | 2.5 |
| Living-Related, Personal, Amusement Services | 552.7 | -0.8 | -0.3 |
| Learning Support | 116.9 | 0.2 | -1.3 |
| Medical, Health Care, Welfare | 921.1 | 0.4 | 1.5 |
| Miscellaneous ex Government | 626.7 | 0.3 | -1.2 |
Source: http://www.meti.go.jp/english/statistics/index.html
VC China. China estimates an index of nonmanufacturing purchasing managers on the basis of a sample of 1200 nonmanufacturing enterprises across the country (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Table CIPMNM provides this index and components. The index fell from 58.0 in Mar to 55.2 in May but climbed to 56.7 in Jun, which is lower than 58.0 in Mar and 57.3 in Feb but higher than in any other of the months in 2012. In Jul 2012 the index fell marginally to 55.6 and then to 56.3 in Aug and 53.7 in Sep but rebounded to 55.5 in Oct and 55.6 in Nov 2012. Improvement continued with 56.1 in Dec 2012 and 56.2 in Jan 2013, declining marginally to 54.5 in Feb 2013 and 55.6 in Mar 2013. The index fell to 54.5 in Apr 2013, 54.3 in May 2013 and 53.9 in Jun 2013, rebounding to 54.1 in Jul 2013
Table CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted
| Total Index | New Orders | Interm. | Subs Prices | Exp | |
| Jul 2013 | 54.1 | 50.3 | 58.2 | 52.4 | 63.9 |
| Jun | 53.9 | 50.3 | 55.0 | 50.6 | 61.8 |
| May | 54.3 | 50.1 | 54.4 | 50.7 | 62.9 |
| Apr | 54.5 | 50.9 | 51.1 | 47.6 | 62.5 |
| Mar | 55.6 | 52.0 | 55.3 | 50.0 | 62.4 |
| Feb | 54.5 | 51.8 | 56.2 | 51.1 | 62.7 |
| Jan | 56.2 | 53.7 | 58.2 | 50.9 | 61.4 |
| Dec 2012 | 56.1 | 54.3 | 53.8 | 50.0 | 64.6 |
| Nov | 55.6 | 53.2 | 52.5 | 48.4 | 64.6 |
| Oct | 55.5 | 51.6 | 58.1 | 50.5 | 63.4 |
| Sep | 53.7 | 51.8 | 57.5 | 51.3 | 60.9 |
| Aug | 56.3 | 52.7 | 57.6 | 51.2 | 63.2 |
| Jul | 55.6 | 53.2 | 49.7 | 48.7 | 63.9 |
| Jun | 56.7 | 53.7 | 52.1 | 48.6 | 65.5 |
| May | 55.2 | 52.5 | 53.6 | 48.5 | 65.4 |
| Apr | 56.1 | 52.7 | 57.9 | 50.3 | 66.1 |
| Mar | 58.0 | 53.5 | 60.2 | 52.0 | 66.6 |
| Feb | 57.3 | 52.7 | 59.0 | 51.2 | 63.8 |
| Jan | 55.7 | 52.2 | 58.2 | 51.1 | 65.3 |
Notes: Interm.: Intermediate; Subs: Subscription; Exp: Business Expectations
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Chart CIPMNM provides China’s nonmanufacturing purchasing managers’ index. There was slowing of the general index in Apr 2012 after the increase in Jan-Mar 2012 and further decline to 55.2 in May 2012 but increase to 56.7 in Jun 2012 with marginal decline to 55.6 in Jul 2012 and 56.3 in Aug 2012 and sharper drop to 53.7 in Sep 2012, rebounding to 55.5 in Oct 2012, 55.6 in Nov 2012, 56.1 in Dec 2012 and 55.6 in Mar 2013. The index fell again to 54.5 in Apr 2013, 54.3 in May 2013 and 53.9 in Jun 2013, rebounding to 54.1 in Jul 2013.
Chart CIPMNM, China, Nonmanufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Table CIPMMFG provides the index of purchasing managers of manufacturing seasonally adjusted of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The general index (IPM) rose from 50.5 in Jan 2012 to 53.3 in Apr and declined to 50.1 in Jul and to the contraction zone at 49.2 in Aug and 49.8 in Sep, climbing above 50.0 to 50.2 in Oct, 50.6 in Nov-Dec 2012, 50.9 in Mar 2013 and 50.6 in Apr 2013. The index increased to 50.8 in May 2013, falling to 50.1 in Jun 2013 and rebounding to 50.3 in Jul 2013. The index of new orders (NOI) fell from 54.5 in Apr 2012 to 49.0 in Jul and 48.7 in Aug, climbing above 50.0, 51.2 in Nov 2012-Dec 2012, 52.3 in Mar 2013 and 51.7 in Apr 2013. The index of new orders increased to 51.8 in May 2013, falling to 50.4 in Jun 2013 and 50.6 in Jul 2013. The index of employment also fell from 51.0 in Apr to 49.1 in Aug and further down to 48.7 in Nov 2012, 49.9 in Dec 2012, 49.8 in Mar 2013 and 49.0 in Apr 2013. The index of employment fell to 48.8 in May 2013 and 48.7 in Jun 2013, increasing to 49.1 in Jul 2013.
Table CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, %, Seasonally Adjusted
| IPM | PI | NOI | INV | EMP | SDEL | |
| Jul 2013 | 50.3 | 52.4 | 50.6 | 47.6 | 49.1 | 50.1 |
| Jun | 50.1 | 52.0 | 50.4 | 47.4 | 48.7 | 50.3 |
| May | 50.8 | 53.3 | 51.8 | 47.6 | 48.8 | 50.8 |
| Apr | 50.6 | 52.6 | 51.7 | 47.5 | 49.0 | 50.8 |
| Mar | 50.9 | 52.7 | 52.3 | 47.5 | 49.8 | 51.1 |
| Feb | 50.1 | 51.2 | 50.1 | 49.5 | 47.6 | 48.3 |
| Jan | 50.4 | 51.3 | 51.6 | 50.1 | 47.8 | 50.0 |
| Dec 2012 | 50.6 | 52.0 | 51.2 | 47.3 | 49.0 | 48.8 |
| Nov | 50.6 | 52.5 | 51.2 | 47.9 | 48.7 | 49.9 |
| Oct | 50.2 | 52.1 | 50.4 | 47.3 | 49.2 | 50.1 |
| Sep | 49.8 | 51.3 | 49.8 | 47.0 | 48.9 | 49.5 |
| Aug | 49.2 | 50.9 | 48.7 | 45.1 | 49.1 | 50.0 |
| Jul | 50.1 | 51.8 | 49.0 | 48.5 | 49.5 | 49.0 |
| Jun | 50.2 | 52.0 | 49.2 | 48.2 | 49.7 | 49.1 |
| May | 50.4 | 52.9 | 49.8 | 45.1 | 50.5 | 49.0 |
| Apr | 53.3 | 57.2 | 54.5 | 48.5 | 51.0 | 49.6 |
| Mar | 53.1 | 55.2 | 55.1 | 49.5 | 51.0 | 48.9 |
| Feb | 51.0 | 53.8 | 51.0 | 48.8 | 49.5 | 50.3 |
| Jan | 50.5 | 53.6 | 50.4 | 49.7 | 47.1 | 49.7 |
IPM: Index of Purchasing Managers; PI: Production Index; NOI: New Orders Index; EMP: Employed Person Index; SDEL: Supplier Delivery Time Index
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
China estimates the manufacturing index of purchasing managers on the basis of a sample of 820 enterprises (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/t20121009_402841094.htm). Chart CIPMMFG provides the manufacturing index of purchasing managers. There is deceleration from 51.2 in Sep 2011 to marginal contraction at 49.0 in Nov 2011. Manufacturing activity recovered to 53.3 in Apr 2012 but then declined to 50.4 in May 2012 and 50.1 in Jun 2012, which is the lowest in a year with exception of contraction at 49.0 in Nov 2011. The index then fell to contraction at 49.2 in Aug 2012 and improved to 49.8 in Sep with movement to 50.2 in Oct 2012, 50.6 in Nov 2012, 50.9 in Mar 2013 and 50.6 in Apr 2013 above the neutral zone of 50.0. The index increased to 50.8 in May 2013 and fell to 50.1 in Jun 2013, increasing to 50.3 in Jul 2013.
Chart CIPMMFG, China, Manufacturing Index of Purchasing Managers, Seasonally Adjusted
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Cumulative growth of China’s GDP in IIQ2013 relative to the same period in 2012 was 7.6 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDP. Secondary industry accounts for 47.2 percent of GDP of which industry alone for 41.0 percent in IQ2013 and construction with the remaining 6.2 percent in the first three quarters of 2012. Tertiary industry accounts for 45.3 percent of cumulative GDP in IIQ2013 and primary industry for 7.5 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). The bottom block of Table VC-1 provides quarter-on-quarter growth rates of GDP and their annual equivalent. China’s GDP growth decelerated significantly from annual equivalent 10.4 percent in IIQ2011 to 7.4 percent in IVQ2011 and 6.2 percent in IQ2012, rebounding to 8.7 percent in IIQ2012, 8.2 percent in IIIQ2012 and 7.8 percent in IVQ2012. Annual equivalent growth in IQ2013 fell to 6.6 percent and to 7.0 percent in IIQ2013.
Table VC-GDP, China, Quarterly Growth of GDP, Current CNY 100 Million and Inflation Adjusted ∆%
| Cumulative GDP IIQ2013 | Value Current CNY 100 Million | 2013 Year-on-Year Constant Prices ∆% |
| GDP | 248009 | 7.6 |
| Primary Industry | 18622 | 3.0 |
| Farming | 18622 | 3.0 |
| Secondary Industry | 117037 | 7.6 |
| Industry | 101601 | 7.3 |
| Construction | 15436 | 9.6 |
| Tertiary Industry | 112350 | 8.3 |
| Transport, Storage, Post | 12995 | 6.8 |
| Wholesale, Retail Trades | 23291 | 10.2 |
| Hotel & Catering Services | 4824 | 4.7 |
| Financial Intermediation | 16036 | 10.8 |
| Real Estate | 16127 | 7.5 |
| Other | 39077 | 7.4 |
| Growth in Quarter Relative to Prior Quarter | ∆% on Prior Quarter | ∆% Annual Equivalent |
| 2013 | ||
| IIQ2013 | 1.7 | 7.0 |
| IQ2013 | 1.6 | 6.6 |
| 2012 | ||
| IVQ2012 | 1.9 | 7.8 |
| IIIQ2012 | 2.0 | 8.2 |
| IIQ2012 | 2.1 | 8.7 |
| IQ2012 | 1.5 | 6.2 |
| 2011 | ||
| IVQ2011 | 1.8 | 7.4 |
| IIIQ2011 | 2.2 | 9.1 |
| IIQ2011 | 2.5 | 10.4 |
| IQ2011 | 2.3 | 9.5 |
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Growth of China’s GDP in IIQ2013 relative to the same period in 2012 was 7.5 percent, as shown in Table VC-GDPA. Secondary industry accounts for 47.2 percent of GDP of which industry alone for 41.0 percent in cumulative IIQ2013 and construction with the remaining 7.5 percent in the first two quarters of 2013. Tertiary industry accounts for 45.3 percent of GDP in the cumulative to IIQ2013 and primary industry for 7.5 percent. China’s growth strategy consisted of rapid increases in productivity in industry to absorb population from agriculture where incomes are lower (Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 56-80). GDP growth decelerated from 12.1 percent in IQ2010 and 11.2 percent in IIQ2010 to 7.7 percent in IQ2013 and 7.5 percent in IIQ2013.
Table VC-GDPA, China, Growth Rate of GDP, ∆% Relative to a Year Earlier and ∆% Relative to Prior Quarter
| IQ 2013 | IIQ 2013 | |||||||
| GDP | 7.7 | 7.5 | ||||||
| Primary Industry | 3.4 | 3.0 | ||||||
| Secondary Industry | 7.8 | 7.6 | ||||||
| Tertiary Industry | 8.3 | 8.3 | ||||||
| GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter | 1.6 | 1.7 | ||||||
| IQ 2011 | IIQ 2011 | IIIQ 2011 | IVQ 2011 | IQ 2012 | IIQ 2012 | IIIQ 2012 | IVQ 2012 | |
| GDP | 9.7 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 7.9 |
| Primary Industry | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.5 |
| Secondary Industry | 11.1 | 11.0 | 10.8 | 10.6 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 8.1 |
| Tertiary Industry | 9.1 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 8.1 |
| GDP ∆% Relative to a Prior Quarter | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| IQ 2010 | IIQ 2010 | IIIQ 2010 | IVQ 2010 | |||||
| GDP | 12.1 | 11.2 | 10.7 | 12.1 | ||||
| Primary Industry | 3.8 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 3.8 | ||||
| Secondary Industry | 14.5 | 13.3 | 12.6 | 14.5 | ||||
| Tertiary Industry | 10.5 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 10.5 |
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Chart VC-GDP of the National Bureau of Statistics of China provides annual value and growth rates of GDP. China’s GDP growth in 2012 is still high at 7.8 percent but at the lowest rhythm in five years
Chart VC-GDP, China, Gross Domestic Product, Million Yuan and ∆%, 2008-2012
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) compiled by Markit (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/69676b0fae3d429b89c74bcf671abde4) is moving at slower pace. The overall Flash HSBC China Manufacturing PMI™ decreased from 48.2 in Jun to 47.7 in Jul, which is moderately below the contraction frontier of 50.0, while the Flash HSBC China Manufacturing Output Index decreased from 48.6 in Jun to 48.2 in Jul, moving into moderate contraction territory. Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds that weakness in the index suggests need for further stimulus to support growth (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/69676b0fae3d429b89c74bcf671abde4). The HSBC China Services PMI™, compiled by Markit, shows marginal weakness in business activity in China with the HSBC Composite Output, combining manufacturing and services, decreasing from 49.8 in Jun to 49.5 in Jul with the second consecutive output contraction (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c48cd865e52342d9bdc53c597f4a1162). Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds weak growth without increasing demand (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c48cd865e52342d9bdc53c597f4a1162). The HSBC Business Activity index remained unchanged from 51.3 in Jun to 51.3 in Jul (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c48cd865e52342d9bdc53c597f4a1162). Hongbin Ku, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds stabilizing services at low levels of activity (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c48cd865e52342d9bdc53c597f4a1162). The HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™), compiled by Markit, decreased to 47.7 in Jul from 48.2 in Jun, indicating deterioration in manufacturing during three consecutive months (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d05ba17e11194262b7c4f1209c96bb39). New export orders decreased for the fourth consecutive month with the fastest decline in total orders in 11 months. Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, finds that weak internal and external demand set pressure on manufacturing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d05ba17e11194262b7c4f1209c96bb39). Table CNY provides the country data table for China.
Table CNY, China, Economic Indicators
| Price Indexes for Industry | Jul 12-month ∆%: minus 2.3 Jul month ∆%: -0.3 |
| Consumer Price Index | Jul month ∆%: 0.1 Jul 12 months ∆%: 2.7 |
| Value Added of Industry | Jul month ∆%: 0.88 Jan-Jul 2013/Jan-Jul 2012 ∆%: 9.4 |
| GDP Growth Rate | Year IIQ2013 ∆%: 7.5 |
| Investment in Fixed Assets | Jul month ∆%: 1.58 Total Jan-Jul 2013 ∆%: 20.1 Real estate development: 20.5 |
| Retail Sales | Jul month ∆%: 1.23 Jan-Jul ∆%: 12.8 |
| Trade Balance | Jul balance $17.82 billion Cumulative Jun: $126.37 billion |
Links to blog comments in Table CNY:
7/21/2013 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/tapering-quantitative-easing-policy-and.html
Cumulative and 12-months rates of value added of industry in China are provided in Table VC-1. Value added in total industry increased 9.4 in Jan-July 2013 relative to a year earlier and 9.7 percent in 12 months. Value added in total industry in Jan-Jun 2013 increased 9.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Heavy industry (manufacturing) had been the driver of growth with a cumulative rate of 10.0 percent relative to a year earlier in Jan-Mar 2012 that declined to 10.5 percent in Jan-Apr 2012 relative to the same period a year earlier and further down to 10.1 percent in Jan-Jun 2012, 9.9 percent in Jan-Jul 2012, 9.8 percent in Jan-Aug 2012, 9.7 percent in Jan-Sep 2012, 9.7 percent in Jan-Oct 2012, 9.8 percent in Jan-Nov 2012, 9.9 percent in Jan-Dec 2012, 10.2 percent in Jan-Feb 2013, 9.8 percent in Jan-Mar 2013, 9.7 percent in Jan-Apr 2013, 9.7 percent in Jan-May 2013, 10.0 percent in Jan-Jun 2013 and 10.1 percent in Jan-Jul 2013. Light industry (mining and quarrying) grew 7.1 percent in Jan-Jul 2013 relative to a year earlier. Growth of total industry decelerated from cumulative 14.4 percent in Jan-Mar 2011 to 9.4 percent in Jan-Jul 2013.
Table VC-1, China, Growth Rate of Value Added of Industry ∆%
| Industry | Light Industry | Heavy | State | Joint-Stock | |
| 2013 | |||||
| Jan-Jul | 9.4 | 7.1 | 10.1 | 5.6 | 10.9 |
| 12M Jun | 9.7 | 5.5 | 10.5 | 8.1 | 11.1 |
| Jan-Jun | 9.3 | 7.3 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 10.9 |
| 12M Jun | 8.9 | 5.8 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 10.5 |
| Jan-May | 9.4 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 11.0 |
| 12M May | 9.2 | 8.0 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 10.7 |
| Jan-Apr | 9.4 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 11.1 |
| 12 M Apr | 9.3 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 10.9 |
| Jan-Mar | 9.5 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 11.3 |
| 12 M Mar | 8.9 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 11.0 |
| Jan-Feb | 9.9 | 9.1 | 10.2 | 5.8 | 11.4 |
| 2012 | |||||
| Jan-Dec 2012 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 11.8 |
| 12 M Dec | 10.3 | 9.6 | 10.6 | 8.0 | 12.1 |
| Jan-Nov | 10.0 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 11.8 |
| 12 M Nov | 10.1 | 9.2 | 10.5 | 7.2 | 11.8 |
| Jan-Oct | 10.0 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 6.4 | 11.8 |
| 12 M Oct | 9.6 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 7.0 | 11.7 |
| Jan-Sep | 10.0 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 6.3 | 11.8 |
| 12 M Sep | 9.2 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 11.0 |
| Jan-Aug | 10.1 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 15.4 |
| 12 M Aug | 8.9 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 14.3 |
| Jan-Jul | 10.3 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 12.1 |
| 12 M Jul | 9.2 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 10.9 |
| Jan-Jun | 10.5 | 11.1 | 10.1 | 7.0 | 12.4 |
| 12 M Jun | 9.5 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 11.5 |
| Jan-May | 10.7 | 11.5 | 10.3 | 6.7 | 12.4 |
| 12 M May | 9.6 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 6.6 | 11.0 |
| Jan-Apr | 11.0 | 12.3 | 10.5 | 6.6 | 12.9 |
| 12 M Apr | 9.3 | 10.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 10.7 |
| Jan-Mar | 11.6 | 13.2 | 11.0 | 7.2 | 13.8 |
| 12 M Mar | 11.9 | 13.9 | 11.2 | 8.0 | 13.7 |
| Jan-Feb | 11.4 | 12.7 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 13.9 |
| 2011 | |||||
| Jan-Dec | 13.9 | 13.0 | 14.3 | 9.9 | 15.8 |
| 12 M Dec | 12.8 | 12.6 | 13.0 | 9.2 | 14.7 |
| Jan-Nov | 14.0 | 13.0 | 14.4 | 9.9 | 16.0 |
| 12 M Nov | 12.4 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 14.4 |
| Jan-Oct | 14.1 | 13.0 | 14.5 | 10.1 | 9.1 |
| 12 M Oct | 13.2 | 12.1 | 13.7 | 8.9 | 15.1 |
| Jan-Sep | 14.2 | 13.1 | 14.6 | 10.4 | 16.1 |
| 12 M Sep | 13.8 | 12.8 | 14.3 | 9.9 | 16.0 |
| Jan-Aug | 14.2 | 13.1 | 14.6 | 10.4 | 16.1 |
| 12 M Aug | 13.5 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 9.4 | 15.5 |
| Jan-Jul | 14.3 | ||||
| 12 M | 14.0 | 12.8 | 14.5 | 9.5 | |
| Jan-Jun | 14.3 | 13.1 | 14.7 | 10.7 | 19.7 |
| 12 M | 15.1 | 13.9 | 15.6 | 10.7 | 20.8 |
| Jan-May | 14.0 | 12.9 | 14.4 | 10.7 | 19.3 |
| 12 M May | 13.3 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 8.9 | 18.7 |
| Jan-Apr | 14.2 | 12.9 | 14.7 | 11.2 | 19.5 |
| 12 M Apr | 13.4 | 11.9 | 14.0 | 10.4 | 18.0 |
| Jan-Mar | 14.4 | 13.1 | 14.9 | 11.4 | 19.8 |
| 12 M Mar | 14.8 | 12.8 | 15.6 | 12.9 | 19.2 |
| 12 M Feb | 14.9 | 13.1 | 15.6 | 10.5 | 21.7 |
| Jan-Feb | 14.1 | 13.3 | 14.4 | 10.6 | 20.3 |
*After Jun 2013 Heavy Industry is Manufacturing and Light Industry is Mining and Quarrying
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Chart VC-3 provides 12-month percentage changes of value added of industry in 2012 and from Jan to Jul 2013. Growth rates of value added of industry in the first five months of 2010 were higher than in 2011 as would be expected in an earlier phase of recovery from the global recession. Growth rates have converged in the second half of 2011 to lower percentages with further decline into 2012 to single digit percentage changes, 10.3 percent in Dec 2012, 8.9 percent in Mar 2013 and 9.3 percent in Apr 2013. The growth rate eased to 9.2 percent in May 2013 and 8.9 percent in Jun 2013, rebounding to 9.7 percent in Jul 2013.
Chart VC-1, China, Growth Rate of Total Value Added of Industry, 12-Month ∆%
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Yearly rates of growth for the past 12 months and cumulative relative to the earlier year of various segments of industrial production in China are provided in Table VC-2. Rates from Jan to Dec 2011 relative to the same period a year earlier fluctuated but remained mostly above 10 percent with the exception of motor vehicles and crude oil. There is deceleration in Jan-Dec 2012 of percentage change with no segment showing growth exceeding 10 percent with exception of 12-month growth of 13.5 percent for pig iron and 16.7 percent for nonferrous metals. In Jan-Jul 2013, many segments grew at rates exceeding or around 10 percent with exception of electricity at 5.2 percent, crude oil at 4.5 percent and pig iron at 6.0 percent. Electricity fell from growth of 16.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2011 to 0.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2012, rebounding to 4.8 percent in Aug 2012 but declining to 1.5 percent in Sep 2012, increasing to 3.9 percent in Oct 2012, 7.9 percent in Nov 2012 and 7.6 percent in Dec 2012. Electricity grew 5.2 percent in Jan-Jul 2013 relative to a year earlier.
Table VC-2, China, Industrial Production Operation ∆%
| Elec- | Pig Iron | Cement | Crude | Non- | Autos | |
| 2013 | ||||||
| Jan-Jul | 5.2 | 6.0 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 10.3 | 15.1 |
| 12 M Jul | 8.1 | 5.0 | 9.1 | 7.1 | 9.8 | 15.4 |
| Jan-Jun | 4.4 | 5.7 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 10.0 | 15.2 |
| 12 M Jun | 6.0 | 2.9 | 8.8 | 10.8 | 6.7 | 13.5 |
| Jan-May | 4.0 | 10.8 | 8.9 | 2.9 | 10.9 | 15.4 |
| 12 M May | 4.1 | 11.3 | 8.5 | 2.4 | 7.5 | 15.7 |
| Jan-Apr | 3.8 | 10.5 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 11.4 | 15.4 |
| 12 M Apr | 6.2 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 2.5 | 10.3 | 18.3 |
| Jan-Mar | 2.9 | 12.3 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 10.6 | 13.5 |
| 12 M Mar | 2.1 | 9.2 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 9.9 | 12.4 |
| Jan-Feb | 3.4 | 14.2 | 10.8 | 3.0 | 13.5 | 12.4 |
| 2012 | ||||||
| Jan-Dec | 4.7 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 9.3 | 6.3 |
| 12 M Dec | 7.6 | 13.5 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 16.7 | 5.3 |
| Jan-Nov | 4.4 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 8.4 | 6.5 |
| 12 M Nov | 7.9 | 16.5 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 15.2 | 3.9 |
| Jan-Oct | 3.9 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 7.7 | 6.9 |
| 12 M Oct | 6.4 | 11.7 | 11.5 | 6.7 | 14.0 | 3.8 |
| Jan-Sep | 3.6 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 7.1 | 7.3 |
| 12 M Sep | 1.5 | 4.9 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 6.3 |
| Jan-Aug | 3.8 | -0.5 | 8.7 | 2.5 | 13.8 | 10.4 |
| 12 M Aug | 4.8 | 2.6 | 5.9 | -0.4 | 13.8 | 9.7 |
| Jan-Jul | 3.8 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 6.7 | 7.4 |
| 12M Jul | 2.1 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 1.1 | 4.1 | 12.3 |
| Jan-Jun | 3.7 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 |
| 12 M Jun | 0.0 | 6.7 | 6.5 | -0.6 | 5.8 | 13.8 |
| Jan-May | 4.7 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 5.1 | 6.2 |
| 12 M May | 2.7 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 6.6 | 18.5 |
| Jan-Apr | 5.0 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 3.1 |
| 12 M Apr | 0.7 | 7.9 | 4.9 | -0.3 | 2.3 | 10.7 |
| Jan-Mar | 7.1 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 5.8 | 0.0 |
| 12 M Mar | 7.2 | 10.2 | 7.9 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 5.1 |
| Jan-Feb | 7.1 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 8.4 | -1.8 |
| 2011 | ||||||
| Jan-Dec | 12.0 | 8.4 | 16.1 | 4.9 | 10.6 | 3.0 |
| 12 M Dec | 9.7 | 3.7 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 13.2 | -6.5 |
| Jan-Nov | 12.0 | 13.1 | 17.2 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 3.9 |
| 12 M Nov | 8.5 | 7.8 | 11.2 | 3.2 | 8.2 | -1.3 |
| Jan-Oct | 12.3 | 13.7 | 18.0 | 5.4 | 10.4 | 5.2 |
| 12 M | 9.3 | 13.4 | 16.5 | -0.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 |
| Jan-Sep | 12.7 | 13.9 | 18.1 | 6.0 | 11.2 | 5.5 |
| 12 M Sep | 11.5 | 18.8 | 15.7 | 1.5 | 13.9 | 2.5 |
| Jan-Aug | 13.0 | 13.1 | 18.4 | 6.6 | 4.7 | |
| 12 M Aug | 10.0 | 12.9 | 12.8 | 4.5 | 15.6 | 9.5 |
| Jan-Jul | 13.3 | 13.0 | 19.2 | 6.9 | 9.9 | 4.0 |
| 12 M | 13.2 | 14.9 | 16.8 | 5.9 | 9.8 | -1.3 |
| 12 M | 16.2 | 14.8 | 19.9 | -0.7 | 9.8 | 3.6 |
| 12 M | 12.1 | 10.6 | 19.2 | 6.0 | 14.2 | -1.9 |
| 12 M Apr | 11.7 | 8.3 | 22.4 | 6.8 | 6.1 | -1.6 |
| 12 M Mar | 14.8 | 13.7 | 29.8 | 8.0 | 11.6 | 9.9 |
| 12 M Feb | 11.7 | 14.5 | 9.1 | 10.9 | 14.4 | 10.3 |
| 12 M Jan | 5.1 | 3.5 | 16.4 | 12.2 | 1.4 | 23.9 |
| 12 M Dec 2010 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 17.3 | 10.3 | -1.9 | 27.6 |
M: month
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Monthly growth rates of industrial production in China are provided in Table VC-3. Monthly rates have fluctuated around 1 percent. Jan and Feb 2012 are somewhat weaker but there was improvement to 1.25 percent in Mar 2012. The rate of 0.33 percent in Apr 2012 is the lowest in the monthly series from Feb 2011 to Jul 2013. Monthly sales growth remained below 1 percent in all the fourteen months from Jan 2012 to Jun 2013 with the exception of Mar 2012. Value added in industry increased 0.88 percent in Jul 2013.
Table VC-3, China, Industrial Production Operation, Month ∆%
| 2011 | Month ∆% |
| Feb | 0.93 |
| Mar | 0.99 |
| Apr | 1.32 |
| May | 0.79 |
| Jun | 1.30 |
| Jul | 0.82 |
| Aug | 0.85 |
| Sep | 0.95 |
| Oct | 0.71 |
| Nov | 0.68 |
| Dec | 0.94 |
| Jan 2012 | 0.50 |
| Feb | 0.61 |
| Mar | 1.25 |
| Apr | 0.33 |
| May | 0.89 |
| Jun | 0.83 |
| Jul | 0.59 |
| Aug | 0.75 |
| Sep | 0.80 |
| Oct | 0.79 |
| Nov | 0.81 |
| Dec | 0.83 |
| Jan 2013 | 0.60 |
| Feb | 0.81 |
| Mar | 0.69 |
| Apr | 0.90 |
| May | 0.66 |
| Jun | 0.71 |
| Jul | 0.88 |
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Table VC-4 provides cumulative growth of investment in fixed assets in China in 2011 relative to 2010, Jan-Dec 2012 and Jan-Jul 2013 relative to a year earlier. Total fixed investment had grown at a high rate fluctuating around 25 percent and fixed investment in real estate development has grown at rates in excess of 30 percent but rates have declined significantly to still quite high percentages. In Jan-Jul 2013, investment in fixed assets in China grew 20.1 percent relative to a year earlier and 20.5 percent in real estate development. There was slight deceleration in the final two months of 2011 that continued into Jan-Jul 2013.
Table VC-4, China, Investment in Fixed Assets ∆% Relative to a Year Earlier
| Total | State | Real Estate Development | |
| Jan-Jul 2013 | 20.1 | 17.5 | 20.5 |
| Jan-Jun | 20.1 | 17.5 | 20.3 |
| Jan-May | 20.4 | 17.7 | 20.6 |
| Jan-Apr | 20.6 | 18.1 | 21.1 |
| Jan-Mar | 20.9 | 18.7 | 20.2 |
| Jan-Feb | 21.2 | 16.9 | 22.8 |
| Jan-Dec 2012 | 20.6 | 14.7 | 16.2 |
| Jan-Nov | 20.7 | 14.5 | 16.7 |
| Jan-Oct | 20.7 | 14.2 | 15.4 |
| Jan-Sep | 20.5 | 13.6 | 15.4 |
| Jan-Aug | 20.2 | 12.9 | 15.6 |
| Jan-Jul | 20.4 | 12.6 | 15.4 |
| Jan-Jun | 20.4 | 13.8 | 16.6 |
| Jan-May | 20.1 | 10.0 | 18.5 |
| Jan-Apr | 20.2 | 9.5 | 18.7 |
| Jan-Mar | 20.9 | 9.0 | 23.5 |
| Jan-Feb | 21.5 | 8.8 | 27.8 |
| Jan-Dec 2011 | 23.8 | 11.1 | 27.9 |
| Jan-Nov | 24.5 | 11.7 | 29.9 |
| Jan-Oct | 24.9 | 12.4 | 31.1 |
| Jan-Sep | 24.9 | 12.7 | 32.0 |
| Jan-Aug | 25.0 | 12.1 | 33.2 |
| Jan-Jul | 25.4 | 13.6 | 33.6 |
| Jan-Jun | 25.6 | 14.6 | 32.9 |
| Jan-May | 25.8 | 14.9 | 34.6 |
| Jan-Apr | 25.4 | 16.6 | 34.3 |
| Jan-Mar | 25.0 | 17.0 | 34.1 |
| Jan-Feb | 24.9 | 15.6 | 35.2 |
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Chart VC-2 provides cumulative fixed asset investment in China relative to a year earlier in all months from 2012 to 2013. Growth rose to 25.8 percent in Jan-May 2011 and then fell back to 24.9 percent in Sep and Oct 2011, declining further to 24.5 percent in Nov and 23.8 percent in Dec 2011 with deeper drop in Jan-Feb 2012 to 21.5 percent, 20.9 percent in Jan-Mar, 20.2 percent in Jan-Apr 2012, 20.1 percent in Jan-Apr 2012, 20.4 percent in both Jan-Jun 2012 and Jan-Jul 2012, 20.2 percent in Jan-Aug 2012, 20.5 percent in Jan-Sep 2012, 20.7 percent in Jan-Oct 2012, 20.7 percent in Jan-Nov 2012, 20.6 percent in Jan-Dec 2012, 21.2 percent in Jan-Feb 2013, 20.9 percent in Jan-Mar 2013, 20.6 in Jan-Apr 2013 and 20.4 percent in Jan0May 2013. The rate eased to 20.1 percent in Jan-Jun 2013 and Jan-Jul 2013. Rates in 2012 and 2012 have fallen from higher gains in 2011.
Chart VC-2, China, Investment in Fixed Assets, ∆% Cumulative over Year Earlier
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Monetary policy has been used in China in the form of increases in interest rates and required reserves of banks to moderate real estate investment. These policies have been reversed because of lower inflation and weakening economic growth. Chart VC-3 shows decline of fluctuating cumulative growth rates of investment in real estate development relative to a year earlier from 35.2 percent in Jan-Feb 2011 to 31.1 percent in Jan-Oct 2011, 29.9 percent in Jan-Nov 2011, 27.9 percent in Jan-Dec 2011, 27.8 percent in Jan-Feb 2012 and sharper decline to 23.5 percent in Jan-Mar 2012, 18.7 percent in Jan-Apr 2012 and 18.5 percent in Jan-May 2012. The trend of decline continued with 16.6 percent in Jan-Jun 2012, 15.4 percent in Jan-Jul 2012, 15.6 percent in Jan-Aug 2012, 15.4 percent in Jan-Sep 2012, 16.7 percent in Jan-Oct 2012, 16.7 percent in Jan-Nov 2012, 16.2 percent in Jan-Dec 2012, 22.8 percent in Jan-Feb 2013, 20.2 percent in Jan-Mar 2013, 21.1 percent in Jan-Apr 2013 and 20.6 percent in Jan-May 2013. The rate eased to 20.3 percent in Jan-Jun 2013, increasing to 22.8 percent in Jan-Jul 2013.
Chart VC-3, China, Investment in Real Estate Development, ∆% Cumulative over Year Earlier
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Table VC-5 provides monthly growth rates of investment in fixed assets in China from Feb 2011 to Jul 2013. Rates increased moderately after Apr 2012. The celebrations of the New Year affect sales in the first two months of the year. Monthly investment rebounded in Mar-Jul 2013.
Table VC-5, China, Investment in Fixed Assets, Month ∆%
| Month ∆% | |
| Feb 2011 | -0.23 |
| Mar | 2.45 |
| Apr | 2.22 |
| May | 1.68 |
| Jun | 1.48 |
| Jul | 1.58 |
| Aug | 1.62 |
| Sep | 1.88 |
| Oct | 1.42 |
| Nov | 1.43 |
| Dec | 1.52 |
| Jan 2012 | 1.70 |
| Feb | 1.84 |
| Mar | 1.16 |
| Apr | 1.00 |
| May | 1.03 |
| Jun | 1.89 |
| Jul | 1.37 |
| Aug | 1.21 |
| Sep | 1.93 |
| Oct | 1.97 |
| Nov | 1.03 |
| Dec | 1.33 |
| Jan 2013 | 1.95 |
| Feb | 0.99 |
| Mar | 1.81 |
| Apr | 1.36 |
| May | 1.42 |
| Jun | 1.51 |
| Jul | 1.58 |
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Table VC-6, China, Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods ∆%
Growth rates of retail sales in 12 months and cumulative relative to a year earlier are in Table VC-6. There is decline of growth rates to cumulative 14.7 percent in Feb 2012, 14.8 percent in Mar, 14.7 percent in Apr, 14.5 percent in May, 14.4 percent in Jun, 14.2 percent in Jul, 14.1 percent in Aug to Oct 2012, 14.2 percent in Nov 2012 and 14.3 percent in Dec 2012. Percentage growth rates have declined in Jan-Dec 2012 relative to earlier months in 2011. The rate of retail sales growth was even lower at 12.3 percent in Feb 2013 with influence from the celebration of the New Year followed by 12.4 percent in Mar 2013 and 12.5 percent in Apr 2013. The rate of retail growth was 12.9 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2013 and 12.6 percent in Jan-May relative to a year earlier. Growth strengthened with 13.3 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2013 and 12.7 percent in the cumulative to Jun 2013 relative to a year earlier. Growth continued with 13.2 in 12 months in Jul 2013 and 12.8 percent in the cumulative Jan-Jul 2013 relative to a year earlier.
| 12-Month ∆% | Cumulative ∆%/ | |
| 2013 | ||
| Jul | 13.2 | 12.8 |
| Jun | 13.3 | 12.7 |
| May | 12.9 | 12.6 |
| Apr | 12.8 | 12.5 |
| Mar | 12.6 | 12.4 |
| Feb | 12.3 | 12.3 |
| 2012 | ||
| Dec | 15.2 | 14.3 |
| Nov | 14.9 | 14.2 |
| Oct | 14.5 | 14.1 |
| Sep | 14.2 | 14.1 |
| Aug | 13.2 | 14.1 |
| Jul | 13.1 | 14.2 |
| Jun | 13.7 | 14.4 |
| May | 13.8 | 14.5 |
| Apr | 14.1 | 14.7 |
| Mar | 15.2 | 14.8 |
| Feb | 14.7 | 14.7 |
| Jan | ||
| 2011 | ||
| Dec | 18.1 | 17.1 |
| Nov | 17.3 | 17.0 |
| Oct | 17.2 | 17.0 |
| Sep | 17.7 | 17.0 |
| Aug | 17.0 | 16.9 |
| Jul | 17.2 | 16.8 |
| Jun | 17.7 | 16.8 |
| May | 16.9 | 16.6 |
| Apr | 17.1 | 16.5 |
| Mar | 17.4 | 17.4 |
| Feb | 11.6 | 15.8 |
| Jan | 19.9 | 19.9 |
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Chart VC-4 of the National Bureau of Statistics of China provides 12-month rates of growth of retail sales from 2012 to 2013. There is again a drop into 2013 with the lowest percentages in Chart VC-4 followed by moderate increases.
Chart VC-4, China, Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods 12-Month ∆%
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Table VC-7 provides monthly percentage changes of retail sales in China. Although the rate of 0.19 percent in Jan 2012 is the lowest in Table VC-7, the rate of 1.36 percent in Sep 2012 is relatively high and 1.30 percent in Dec 2012 is closer to rates in 2011. Sales are lower in Jan-Feb 2013 because of the New Year celebrations, rebounding in Mar-Jul 2013.
Table VC-7, China, Retail Sales, Month ∆%
| 2011 | Month ∆% |
| Feb | 1.35 |
| Mar | 1.26 |
| Apr | 1.30 |
| May | 1.39 |
| Jun | 1.49 |
| Jul | 1.57 |
| Aug | 1.50 |
| Sep | 1.33 |
| Oct | 1.36 |
| Nov | 1.26 |
| Dec | 1.41 |
| 2012 | |
| Jan | 0.19 |
| Feb | 0.99 |
| Mar | 1.21 |
| Apr | 0.93 |
| May | 1.11 |
| Jun | 1.12 |
| Jul | 1.03 |
| Aug | 1.11 |
| Sep | 1.37 |
| Oct | 1.19 |
| Nov | 1.18 |
| Dec | 1.30 |
| Jan 2013 | 0.19 |
| Feb | 1.00 |
| Mar | 1.30 |
| Apr | 1.27 |
| May | 1.19 |
| Jun | 1.26 |
| Jul | 1.23 |
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Table VC-8 provides China’s exports, imports, trade balance and 12-month percentage changes from Dec 2010 to Jul 2013. Exports fell 3.1 percent in Jun 2013 and imports declined 0.7 percent with growth of 5.1 percent of exports in Jul 2013 and 10.9 percent of imports. The trade surplus reached $17.82 billion. Exports increased 1.0 percent in May 2013 relative to a year earlier while imports fell 0.3 percent with trade surplus of $20.43 billion. Exports increased 14.7 percent in Apr 2013 relative to a year earlier and imports 16.8 percent for trade surplus of $18.16 billion. Exports increased 10.0 percent in Mar 2013 relative to a year earlier and imports increased 14.1 percent for trade deficit of $0.88 billion. Exports increased 18.4 percent in Jan-Mar 2013 relative to a year earlier and imports 8.4 percent for surplus of $43.27 billion. Exports increased 21.8 percent in Feb 2013 relative to a year earlier and imports fell 15.0 percent for trade surplus of $15.25 billion. China’s trade growth was stronger in Jan 2013 with growth of exports of 25.0 percent in 12 months and of imports of 28.8 percent for trade surplus of $29.15 billion. China’s trade growth strengthened in Dec 2012 with growth in 12 months of exports of 14.1 percent and of imports of 6.0 percent. China’s trade growth weakened again in Nov 2012 with growth of exports of 2.9 percent and no change in imports. China’s trade growth rebounded with growth of exports in 12 months of 11.6 percent in Oct 2012 and 9.9 percent in Sep 2012 after 2.7 percent in Aug 2012 and 1.0 percent in Jul 2012 while imports grew 2.4 percent in both Sep and Oct 2012, stagnating in Nov 2012. As a result, the monthly trade surplus increased from $25.2 billion in Jul 2012 to $31.9 billion in Oct 2012, declining to $19.6 billion in Nov 2012 but increasing to $31.67 billion in Dec 2012. China’s trade growth rebounded in Oct 2012 with growth of exports of 11.6 percent in 12 months and 2.4 percent for imports and trade surplus of $31.9 billion. The number that caught attention in financial markets was growth of 1.0 percent in exports in the 12 months ending in Jul 2012. Imports were also weak, growing 4.7 percent in 12 months ending in Jul 2012. Exports increased 11.3 percent in Jun 2012 relative to a year earlier while imports grew 6.3 percent. The rate of growth of exports fell to 4.9 percent in Apr 2012 relative to a year earlier and imports increased 0.3 percent but export growth was 15.3 percent in May and imports increased 12.7 percent. China reversed the large trade deficit of USD 31.48 billion in Feb 2012 with a surplus of $5.35 billion in Mar 2012, $18.42 billion in Apr 2012, $18.7 billion in May 2012, $31.7 billion in Jun 2012, $25.2 billion in Jul 2012, $26.7 billion in Aug 2012, $27.7 billion in Sep 2012, $31.9 billion in Oct 2012 and $19.6 billion in Nov 2012. Exports fell 0.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan while imports fell 15.3 percent for a still sizeable trade surplus of $27.3 billion. In Feb, exports increased 18.4 percent while imports jumped 39.6 percent for a sizeable deficit of $31.48 billion. There are distortions from the New Year holidays.
Table VC-8, China, Exports, Imports and Trade Balance USD Billion and ∆%
| Exports | ∆% Relative | Imports USD | ∆% Relative | Balance | |
| Jul 2013 | 185.99 | 5.1 | 168.17 | 10.9 | 17.82 |
| Jun | 174.32 | -3.1 | 147.19 | -0.7 | 27.13 |
| May | 182.77 | 1.0 | 162.34 | -0.3 | 20.43 |
| Apr | 187.06 | 14.7 | 168.90 | 16.8 | 18.16 |
| Mar | 182.19 | 10.0 | 183.07 | 14.1 | -0.88 |
| Feb | 139.37 | 21.8 | 124.12 | -15.2 | 15.25 |
| Jan | 187.37 | 25.0 | 158.22 | 28.8 | 29.15 |
| Dec 2012 | 199.23 | 14.1 | 167.61 | 6.0 | 31.62 |
| Nov | 179.38 | 2.9 | 159.75 | 0.0 | 19.63 |
| Oct | 175.57 | 11.6 | 143.58 | 2.4 | 31.99 |
| Sep | 186.35 | 9.9 | 158.68 | 2.4 | 27.67 |
| Aug | 177.97 | 2.7 | 151.31 | -2.6 | 26.66 |
| Jul | 176.94 | 1.0 | 151.79 | 4.7 | 25.15 |
| Jun | 180.20 | 11.3 | 148.48 | 6.3 | 31.72 |
| May | 181.14 | 15.3 | 162.44 | 12.7 | 18.70 |
| Apr | 163.25 | 4.9 | 144.83 | 0.3 | 18.42 |
| Mar | 165.66 | 8.9 | 160.31 | 5.3 | 5.35 |
| Feb | 114.47 | 18.4 | 145.95 | 39.6 | -31.48 |
| Jan | 149.94 | -0.5 | 122.66 | -15.3 | 27.28 |
| Dec 2011 | 174.72 | 13.4 | 158.20 | 11.8 | 16.52 |
| Nov | 174.46 | 13.8 | 159.94 | 22.1 | 14.53 |
| Oct | 157.49 | 15.9 | 140.46 | 28.7 | 17.03 |
| Sep | 169.67 | 17.1 | 155.16 | 20.9 | 14.51 |
| Aug | 173.32 | 24.5 | 155.56 | 30.2 | 17.76 |
| Jul | 175.13 | 20.4 | 143.64 | 22.9 | 31.48 |
| Jun | 161.98 | 17.9 | 139.71 | 19.3 | 22.27 |
| May | 157.16 | 19.4 | 144.11 | 28.4 | 13.05 |
| Apr | 155.69 | 29.9 | 144.26 | 21.8 | 11.42 |
| Mar | 152.20 | 35.8 | 152.06 | 27.3 | 0.14 |
| Feb | 96.74 | 2.4 | 104.04 | 19.4 | -7.31 |
| Jan | 150.73 | 37.7 | 144.27 | 51.0 | 6.46 |
| Dec 2010 | 154.15 | 17.9 | 141.07 | 25.6 | 13.08 |
Source: http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/article/statistic/BriefStatistics/
Table VC-9 provides cumulative exports, imports and the trade balance of China together with percentage growth of exports and imports relative to a year earlier. Exports grew 9.5 percent in Jul 2013 relative to a year earlier and imports 7.3 percent with cumulative surplus of $126.37 billion. Exports increased 10.3 percent cumulatively in Jun 2013 and imports 6.7 for cumulative surplus of $108.55 billion. Exports increased 13.5 percent in Jan-May 2013 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 8.2 percent for cumulative surplus of $81.42 billion. Exports increased 17.3 percent in Jan-Apr 2012 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 10.6 percent for cumulative surplus of $61.27 billion. Exports increased 18.4 percent in Jan-Mar 2013 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 8.4 percent for cumulative surplus of $43.27 billion. Cumulative exports in Jan-Feb 2013 grew 23.6 percent relative to a year earlier and imports 5.1 percent for trade surplus of $44.40 billion. There is strong beginning of 2013 with trade surplus of $29.15 in Jan 2013 and growth of exports of 17.3 percent and imports of 19.6 percent. The trade balance of $231.1 billion in 2012 is stronger than the trade balance of $155.14 billion in 2011. The trade balance in 2011 of $155.14 billion is lower than those from 2008 to 2010. China’s trade balance reached $231.1 billion in Jan-Dec 2012 with cumulative growth of exports of 7.9 percent and 4.3 percent of imports, which is much lower than 20.3 percent for exports and 24.9 percent for imports in 2011 and 31.3 percent for exports and 38.7 percent for imports in 2010. There is a rare cumulative deficit of $4.2 billion in Feb 2012 reversed to a small surplus in Mar 2012 and a higher surplus of $19.3 billion in Apr 2012, increasing to $37.9 billion in May, $68.9 billion in Jun 2012, $94.1 billion in Jul 2012, $120.8 billion in Aug 2012, $148.3 billion in Sep 2012, $180.24 billion in Oct 2012, $199.54 billion in Nov 2012 and $231.1 billion in Dec 2012. More observations are required to detect trends of Chinese trade but available data suggest deceleration that would be expected from the large share of trade with Europe.
Table VC-9, China, Year to Date Exports, Imports and Trade Balance USD Billion and ∆%
| Exports | ∆% Relative | Imports USD | ∆% Relative | Balance | |
| Jul 2013 | 1238.95 | 9.5 | 1112.58 | 7.3 | 126.37 |
| Jun | 1052.96 | 10.3 | 944.41 | 6.7 | 108.55 |
| May | 878.64 | 13.5 | 797.22 | 8.2 | 81.42 |
| Apr | 695.87 | 17.4 | 634.88 | 10.6 | 60.98 |
| Mar | 508.87 | 18.4 | 465.80 | 8.4 | 43.07 |
| Feb | 326.73 | 23.6 | 282.58 | 5.0 | 44.15 |
| Jan | 187.37 | 25.0 | 158.22 | 28.8 | 29.15 |
| Dec 2012 | 2048.93 | 7.9 | 1817.83 | 4.3 | 231.11 |
| Nov | 1849.91 | 7.3 | 1650.37 | 4.1 | 199.54 |
| Oct | 1670.90 | 7.8 | 1490.67 | 4.6 | 180.24 |
| Sep | 1495.39 | 7.4 | 1347.08 | 4.8 | 148.31 |
| Aug | 1309.11 | 7.1 | 1188.51 | 5.1 | 120.61 |
| Jul | 1131.24 | 7.8 | 1037.14 | 6.4 | 94.10 |
| Jun | 954.38 | 9.2 | 885.46 | 6.7 | 68.91 |
| May | 774.40 | 8.7 | 736.49 | 6.7 | 37.92 |
| Apr | 593.24 | 6.9 | 573.94 | 5.1 | 19.3 |
| Mar | 430.02 | 7.6 | 429.36 | 6.6 | 0.66 |
| Feb | 264.40 | 6.9 | 268.64 | 7.7 | -4.24 |
| Jan | 149.94 | -0.5 | 122.66 | -15.3 | 27.28 |
| Dec 2011 | 1,898.60 | 20.3 | 1,743.46 | 24.9 | 155.14 |
| Nov | 1,724.01 | 21.1 | 1585.61 | 26.4 | 138.40 |
| Oct | 1,549.71 | 22.0 | 1,425.68 | 26.9 | 124.03 |
| Sep | 1,392.27 | 22.7 | 1,285.17 | 26.7 | 107.10 |
| Aug | 1,222.63 | 23.6 | 1,129.90 | 27.5 | 92.73 |
| Jul | 1,049.38 | 23.4 | 973.17 | 26.9 | 76.21 |
| Jun | 874.3 | 24.0 | 829.37 | 27.6 | 44.93 |
| May | 712.37 | 25.5 | 689.41 | 29.4 | 22.96 |
| Apr | 555.30 | 27.4 | 545.02 | 29.6 | 10.28 |
| Mar | 399.64 | 26.5 | 400.66 | 32.6 | -1.02 |
| Feb | 247.47 | 21.3 | 248.36 | 36.0 | -0.89 |
| Jan | 150.7 | 37.7 | 144.27 | 51.0 | 6.46 |
| Dec 2010 | 1577.93 | 31.3 | 1394.83 | 38.7 | 183.10 |
Source: http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/article/statistic/BriefStatistics/
VD Euro Area. Table VD-EUR provides yearly growth rates of the combined GDP of the members of the European Monetary Union (EMU) or euro area since 1996. Growth was very strong at 3.2 percent in 2006 and 3.0 percent in 2007. The global recession had strong impact with growth of only 0.4 percent in 2008 and decline of 4.4 percent in 2009. Recovery was at lower growth rates of 2.0 percent in 2010 and 1.5 percent in 2011. EUROSTAT forecasts growth of GDP of the euro area of minus 0.6 percent in 2012 and minus 0.4 percent in 2013 but 1.2 percent in 2014.
Table VD-EUR, Euro Area, Yearly Percentage Change of Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, Unemployment and GDP ∆%
| Year | HICP ∆% | Unemployment | GDP ∆% |
| 1999 | 1.2 | 9.6 | 2.9 |
| 2000 | 2.2 | 8.7 | 3.8 |
| 2001 | 2.4 | 8.1 | 2.0 |
| 2002 | 2.3 | 8.5 | 0.9 |
| 2003 | 2.1 | 9.0 | 0.7 |
| 2004 | 2.2 | 9.3 | 2.2 |
| 2005 | 2.2 | 9.2 | 1.7 |
| 2006 | 2.2 | 8.5 | 3.2 |
| 2007 | 2.1 | 7.6 | 3.0 |
| 2008 | 3.3 | 7.6 | 0.4 |
| 2009 | 0.3 | 9.6 | -4.4 |
| 2010 | 1.6 | 10.1 | 2.0 |
| 2011 | 2.7 | 10.2 | 1.5 |
| 2012* | 2.5 | 11.4 | -0.6 |
| 2013* | -0.4 | ||
| 2014* | 1.2 |
*EUROSTAT forecast Source: EUROSTAT http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database
The GDP of the euro area in 2011 in current US dollars in the dataset of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is $13,114.4 billion (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/02/weodata/index.aspx). The sum of the GDP of France is $2778.1 billion with the GDP of Germany of $3607.4 billion, Italy of $2198.7 billion and Spain $1479.6 billion is $10,063.8 billion or 76.7 percent of total euro area GDP. The four largest economies account for slightly more than three quarters of economic activity of the euro area. Table VD-EUR1 is constructed with the dataset of EUROSTAT, providing growth rates of the euro area as a whole and of the largest four economies of Germany, France, Italy and Spain annually from 1996 to 2011 with the estimate of 2012 and forecasts for 2013 and 2014 by EUROSTAT. The impact of the global recession on the overall euro area economy and on the four largest economies was quite strong. There was sharp contraction in 2009 and growth rates have not rebounded to earlier growth with exception of Germany in 2010 and 2011.
Table VD-EUR1, Euro Area, Real GDP Growth Rate, ∆%
| Euro Area | Germany | France | Italy | Spain | |
| 2014* | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| 2013* | -0.4 | 0.4 | -0.1 | -1.3 | -1.5 |
| 2012 | -0.6 | 0.7 | 0.0* | -2.4 | -1.4* |
| 2011 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 2010 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 1.7 | -0.3 |
| 2009 | -4.4 | -5.1 | -3.1 | -5.5 | -3.7 |
| 2008 | 0.4 | 1.1 | -0.1 | -1.2 | 0.9 |
| 2007 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 3.5 |
| 2006 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 4.1 |
| 2005 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 3.6 |
| 2004 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 3.3 |
| 2003 | 0.7 | -0.4 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 3.1 |
| 2002 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 2.7 |
| 2001 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 3.7 |
| 2000 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 5.0 |
| 1999 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 4.7 |
| 1998 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 4.5 |
| 1997 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 3.9 |
| 1996 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 2.5 |
Source: EUROSTAT http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/
The Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index of the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI®, combining activity in manufacturing and services, increased from 48.7 in Jun to 50.4 in Jul, interrupting seventeen consecutive contractions with the highest reading in eighteen months. The respondents indicated the highest growth of output since Jun 2011 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b9f7cd408c63428ca6cab343f4dbed5d). Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, finds that the Markit Flash Eurozone PMI index suggests that the euro area could move out of contraction in IIIQ2013 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b9f7cd408c63428ca6cab343f4dbed5d). The Markit Eurozone PMI® Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing activity with close association with GDP, increased from 49.7 in Jun to 50.4 in Jul with interruption of output declining during 17 consecutive months (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b6abc923913042d3b5cb3a57aa4bd32f). Rob Dobson, Senior Economist at Markit, finds hopes in growth at the beginning of the third quarter (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b6abc923913042d3b5cb3a57aa4bd32f). The Markit Eurozone Services Business Activity Index increased from 48.3 in Jun to 49.8 in Jul (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b6abc923913042d3b5cb3a57aa4bd32f). The Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI® increased to 50.3 in Jul from 48.8 in Jun, which interrupts contraction for the twenty-third consecutive month since Aug 2011 for the first reading above 50.0 since Jul 2011 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/9ea9b5e21c5642c3a4c4894546102f47). New orders increased for the first time in two years with growth in new export orders. Rob Dobson, Senior Economist at Markit, finds increase in demand for exports while internal markets are stabilizing (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/9ea9b5e21c5642c3a4c4894546102f47). Table EUR provides the data table for the euro area.
Table EUR, Euro Area Economic Indicators
| GDP | IQ2013 ∆% -0.3; IQ2013/IQ2012 ∆% -1.1 Blog 7/7/13 |
| Unemployment | Jun 2013: 12.1% unemployment rate May 2013: 19.266 million unemployed Blog 8/4/13 |
| HICP | Jun month ∆%: 0.1 12 months Apr ∆%: 1.6 |
| Producer Prices | Euro Zone industrial producer prices Jun ∆%: 0.0 |
| Industrial Production | May month ∆%: -0.3; May 12 months ∆%: -1.3 |
| Retail Sales | Jun month ∆%: -0.5 |
| Confidence and Economic Sentiment Indicator | Sentiment 92.5 Jul 2013 Consumer minus 17.4 Jul 2013 Blog 8/4/13 |
| Trade | Jan-May 2013/Jan-May 2012 Exports ∆%: 2.5 May 2013 12-month Exports ∆% -0.1 Imports ∆% -5.7 |
Links to blog comments in Table EUR:
8/4/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/risks-of-steepening-yield-curve-and.html
7/21/2013 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/tapering-quantitative-easing-policy-and.html
7/14/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/recovery-without-hiring-tapering.html
7/7/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/twenty-nine-million-unemployed-or.html
Advanced economies are experiencing weak demand. Table VD-1 provides month and 12-month percentage changes of the volume of retail sales in the euro zone from Jan 2011 to Jun 2013. Retail sales decreased 0.5 percent in Jun 2013 and fell 0.9 percent in 12 months. The 12-month rates of growth have become negative since Mar 2011 with exception of 1.2 percent in Apr 2011, stability in Aug 2011 at 0.1 percent and in Mar 2012 at 0.0 percent and growth of 0.3 percent in May 2013. The lower part of Table VD-1 provides annual percentage changes of inflation-adjusted retail sales in the euro zone since 2001. Retail sales fell 0.6 percent in 2010 after falling 0.4 percent in 2009 and 1.7 percent in 2008 and fell again by 1.4 percent in 2011 and 2.8 percent in 2012.
Table VD-1, Euro Zone, Volume of Retail Sales, Deflated ∆%
| Month ∆% | 12-Month CA ∆% | |
| Jun 2013 | -0.5 | -0.9 |
| May | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| Apr | 0.0 | -1.0 |
| Mar | -0.1 | -2.0 |
| Feb | -0.2 | -1.8 |
| Jan | 1.0 | -1.8 |
| Dec 2012 | -0.7 | -2.8 |
| Nov | 0.2 | -1.9 |
| Oct | -0.5 | -3.2 |
| Sep | -1.6 | -1.9 |
| Aug | 0.6 | -0.8 |
| Jul | 0.0 | -1.5 |
| Jun | 0.2 | -1.0 |
| May | 0.5 | -0.7 |
| Apr | -1.4 | -3.5 |
| Mar | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Feb | -0.1 | -2.1 |
| Jan | -0.1 | -1.1 |
| Dec 2011 | 0.1 | -1.4 |
| Nov | -0.7 | -1.1 |
| Oct | 0.2 | -0.3 |
| Sep | -0.4 | -0.9 |
| Aug | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Jul | 0.2 | -0.1 |
| Jun | 0.8 | -0.4 |
| May | -1.8 | -1.4 |
| Apr | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Mar | -1.6 | -1.1 |
| Feb | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| Jan | 0.1 | 1.1 |
| Dec ∆% | ||
| 2012 | -2.8 | |
| 2011 | -1.4 | |
| 2010 | -0.6 | |
| 2009 | -0.4 | |
| 2008 | -1.7 | |
| 2007 | -0.9 | |
| 2006 | 2.5 | |
| 2005 | 0.8 | |
| 2004 | 2.3 | |
| 2003 | 0.7 | |
| 2002 | -0.4 | |
| 2001 | 1.9 |
Source: EUROSTAT http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/ http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database
Growth rates of retail sales of the euro zone by major segments are in Table VD-2. Total sales decreased 0.5 percent in Jun 2013 and declined 0.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2013. Food sales fell 0.6 percent and 1.6 percent in 12 months and nonfood products decreased 0.2 percent. Sales of automotive fuel stores increased 1.0 percent in Jun and fell 2.9 percent in 12 months. Nonfood products excluding automotive fuel fell 0.2 percent in 12 months.
Table VD-2, Euro Zone, Volume of Retail Sales by Products, ∆%
| Jun 2013 | Month ∆% | 12-Month ∆% |
| Total | -0.5 | -0.9 |
| Food, Drinks, Tobacco | -0.6 | -1.6 |
| Nonfood Products ex Automotive Fuel | -0.2 | -0.2 |
| Automotive Fuel in Specialized Stores | 1.0 | -2.9 |
Source: EUROSTAT http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/
Month and 12-month percentage rates of change of retail sales by member countries of the euro zone are shown in Table VD-3 for Jun 2013. Retail sales are weak throughout the euro zone. The 12-month percentage changes are negative for some members in Table VD-3 with the exception of 0.4 percent for France, 1.3 percent for Ireland, 2.1 percent for Belgium and 0.2 percent for Finland. The 12-month percentage change for the UK, which is not a member of the euro zone, was 3.1 percent. The European Union’s 12-month percentage change was 0.1 percent.
Table VD-3, Euro Zone, Volume of Retail Sales by Member Countries, ∆%
| Jun 2013 | Month ∆% | 12-Month ∆% |
| Euro Zone | -0.5 | -0.9 |
| Germany | -1.5 | -0.4 |
| France | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Netherlands | NA | NA |
| Finland | -0.8 | 0.2 |
| Belgium | 0.3 | 2.1 |
| Portugal | 1.1 | -2.6 |
| Ireland | -1.0 | 1.3 |
| Italy | NA | NA |
| Greece | NA | NA |
| Spain | -0.8 | -6.9 |
| UK | -0.1 | 3.1 |
| European Union | -0.3 | 0.1 |
Source: EUROSTAT http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/
VE Germany. Table VE-DE provides yearly growth rates of the German economy from 1992 to 2012, price adjusted chain-linked and price and calendar-adjusted chain-linked. Germany’s GDP fell 5.1 percent in 2009 after growing below trend at 1.1 percent in 2008. Recovery has been robust in contrast with other advanced economies. The German economy grew at 4.2 percent in 2010, 3.0 percent in 2011 and 0.7 percent in 2012.
The Federal Statistical Agency of Germany analyzes the fall and recovery of the German economy (http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Content/Statistics/VolkswirtschaftlicheGesamtrechnungen/Inlandsprodukt/Aktuell,templateId=renderPrint.psml):
“The German economy again grew strongly in 2011. The price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.0% compared with the previous year. Accordingly, the catching-up process of the German economy continued during the second year after the economic crisis. In the course of 2011, the price-adjusted GDP again exceeded its pre-crisis level. The economic recovery occurred mainly in the first half of 2011. In 2009, Germany experienced the most serious post-war recession, when GDP suffered a historic decline of 5.1%. The year 2010 was characterised by a rapid economic recovery (+3.7%).”
Table VE-DE, Germany, GDP Year ∆%
| Price Adjusted Chain-Linked | Price- and Calendar-Adjusted Chain Linked | |
| 2012 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| 2011 | 3.0 | 3.1 |
| 2010 | 4.2 | 4.0 |
| 2009 | -5.1 | -5.1 |
| 2008 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 2007 | 3.3 | 3.4 |
| 2006 | 3.7 | 3.9 |
| 2005 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| 2004 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 2003 | -0.4 | -0.4 |
| 2002 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2001 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| 2000 | 3.1 | 3.3 |
| 1999 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| 1998 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| 1997 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| 1996 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 1995 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| 1994 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| 1993 | -1.0 | -1.0 |
| 1992 | 1.9 | 1.5 |
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis) https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/02/PE13_066_811.html;jsessionid=59DE7E440F9F7393B12C16FDA63BEB66.cae1
The Flash Germany Composite Output Index of the Markit Flash Germany PMI®, combining manufacturing and services, increased from 50.4 in Jun to 52.8 in Jul, for the highest reading in five months with stronger improvement in services at 52.4 in Jul while manufacturing moved into expansion at 50.3 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/813702faa006423d91c19091988c8c89). New export orders for manufacturing decreased for the fifth consecutive month with internal activities compensating for the weakness in markets in China and the euro area. Tim Moore, Senior Economist at Markit, finds improvement in manufacturing and services in the beginning of IIIQ2013 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/813702faa006423d91c19091988c8c89). The Markit Germany Composite Output Index of the Markit Germany Services PMI®, combining manufacturing and services with close association with Germany’s GDP, increased from 50.4 in Jun to 52.1 in Jul (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/305c1f0089434295afc013df5a31d460). Tim Moore, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds support in rising performance in manufacturing and services (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/305c1f0089434295afc013df5a31d460). The Germany Services Business Activity Index increased from 50.4 in Jun to 51.3 in Jul (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/305c1f0089434295afc013df5a31d460). The Markit/BME Germany Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®), showing close association with Germany’s manufacturing conditions, increased from 48.6 in Jun to 50.7 in Jul, in movement away from contraction territory below 50.0 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c17b2ae1bc9b420189c254061bf6a045). New export orders restrained growth with weak exports to China and inside the euro area. Tim Moore, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds restrain from weakness in markets, especially in exports, with growth driven by increasing internal spending (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c17b2ae1bc9b420189c254061bf6a045).Table DE provides the country data table for Germany.
Table DE, Germany, Economic Indicators
| GDP | IQ2013 0.1 ∆%; I/Q2013/IQ2012 ∆% -1.4 2012/2011: 0.7% GDP ∆% 1992-2012 Blog 8/26/12 5/27/12 11/25/12 2/24/13 5/19/13 5/26/13 |
| Consumer Price Index | Jun month NSA ∆%: 0.1 |
| Producer Price Index | Jun month ∆%: 0.0 CSA, 0.3 |
| Industrial Production | MFG Jun month CSA ∆%: minus 2.2 |
| Machine Orders | MFG Jun month ∆%: 3.8 |
| Retail Sales | Jun Month ∆% -1.5 12-Month ∆% -2.9 Blog 8/4/13 |
| Employment Report | Unemployment Rate SA Jun 5.4% |
| Trade Balance | Exports Jun 12-month NSA ∆%: minus 2.1 Blog 8/11/13 |
Links to blog comments in Table DE:
8/4/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/risks-of-steepening-yield-curve-and.html
7/21/2013 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/tapering-quantitative-easing-policy-and.html
7/14/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/recovery-without-hiring-tapering.html
http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/twenty-nine-million-unemployed-or.html
5/26/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html
The production industries index of Germany in Table VE-1 shows increase of 0.3 percent in Dec 2012 and decrease of 9.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2012. The index decreased 0.8 percent in Jan 2013 and 1.4 percent in 12 months and increased 0.6 percent in Feb 20, declining 5.3 percent in 12 months. In Mar 2013, the production index of Germany increased 0.9 percent and fell 8.8 percent in 12 months. The production index jumped 1.7 percent in Apr 2013 and 7.9 percent in 12 months. In May 2013, the production index fell 0.8 percent and 3.5 percent in 12 months. The production index of Germany increased 2.4 percent in Jun 2013 and 0.8 percent in 12 months. Germany’s production industries suffered decline of 7.3 percent in Dec 2008 relative to Dec 2007 and decline of 2.3 percent in 2009. Recovery was vigorous with 17.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2010. The first quarter of 2011 was quite strong when the German economy outperformed the other advanced economies. The performance of Germany’s production industries from 2002 to 2006 was vigorous with average rate of 4.5 percent. Data for the production industries index of Germany fluctuate sharply from month to month and in 12-month rates.
Table VE-1, Germany, Production Industries, Month and 12-Month ∆%
| 12-Month ∆% NSA | Month ∆% Calendar SA | |
| Jun 2013 | 0.9 | 2.4 |
| May | -3.5 | -0.8 |
| Apr | 7.9 | 1.7 |
| Mar | -8.8 | 0.9 |
| Feb | -5.3 | 0.6 |
| Jan | -1.4 | -0.8 |
| Dec 2012 | -9.4 | 0.3 |
| Nov | -3.0 | -0.3 |
| Oct | 4.1 | -1.5 |
| Sep | -6.8 | -1.3 |
| Aug | -0.7 | 0.0 |
| Jul | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| Jun | 4.3 | -0.8 |
| May | -6.2 | 1.2 |
| Apr | -0.5 | -2.0 |
| Mar | -0.1 | 2.0 |
| Feb | 2.5 | -0.4 |
| Jan | 4.9 | 1.0 |
| Dec 2011 | 1.5 | -1.8 |
| Nov | 3.6 | 0.1 |
| Oct | -0.4 | 1.0 |
| Sep | 4.0 | -1.9 |
| Aug | 9.8 | -0.5 |
| Jul | 5.4 | 3.0 |
| Jun | -1.1 | -1.3 |
| May | 17.5 | 0.5 |
| Apr | 4.7 | 0.2 |
| Mar | 9.2 | 0.6 |
| Feb | 15.1 | 1.0 |
| Jan | 14.4 | 0.9 |
| Dec 2010 | 17.1 | |
| Dec 2009 | -2.3 | |
| Dec 2008 | -7.3 | |
| Dec 2007 | -0.1 | |
| Dec 2006 | 2.5 | |
| Dec 2005 | 4.9 | |
| Dec 2004 | 5.3 | |
| Dec 2003 | 5.1 | |
| Dec 2002 | 2.0 | |
| Average ∆% per Year | ||
| Dec 1994 to Dec 2012 | 0.7 | |
| Dec 1994 to Dec 2000 | 0.8 | |
| Dec 1994 to Dec 2006 | 1.3 | |
| Dec 2002 to Dec 2006 | 4.5 |
Source: Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis) https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html
Table VE-2 provides monthly percentage changes of the German production industries index by components from Nov 2012 to Jun 2013. The index increased 2.4 percent in Jun 2013 with increases of 2.2 percent in industry, 2.2 percent in manufacturing, 4.1 percent in capital goods, 12.7 percent in durable goods, 0.6 percent in intermediate goods and 5.0 percent in energy while other segments decreased with minus 1.2 percent in intermediate goods.
Table VE-2, Germany, Production Industries, Industry and Components, Month ∆%
| Jun 2013 | May | Apr | Mar | Feb | Jan | Dec 2012 | Nov | |
| Production | 2.4 | -0.8 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | -0.8 | 0.3 | -0.3 |
| Industry | 2.2 | -0.5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.8 | -1.0 | 1.1 | -0.1 |
| Mfg | 2.2 | -0.5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.8 | -1.0 | 1.1 | -0.1 |
| Intermediate Goods | 0.6 | 1.2 | -0.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | -0.8 |
| Capital | 4.1 | -2.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 2.5 | -1.9 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Durable Goods | 12.7 | -4.9 | -1.8 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | -1.2 |
| Nondurable Goods | -1.2 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 1.1 | -3.2 | -2.1 | 4.4 | -2.5 |
| Energy | 5.0 | -2.7 | -2.5 | 7.3 | 0.8 | -0.2 | -4.6 | -1.2 |
Seasonally Calendar Adjusted
Source: Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html
Table VE-3 provides 12-month unadjusted percentage changes of industry and components in Germany. There have been percentage declines of 12-month rates in the production index of Germany and all segments in the four months from Dec 2012 to Mar 2013 with exception of nondurables in Jan 2013 and energy in Mar 2013. There is sharp recovery in Apr 2013 with growth of manufacturing by 9.0 percent and capital goods by 13.8 percent. All segments show declines in 12 months in May 2013. There are increases in the 12 months ending in Jun of 1.5 percent in industry, 1.6 percent in manufacturing, 5.5 percent in capital goods and 2.5 percent in durable goods. Percentage declines in 12 months are quite sharp in Dec 2012 with most percentage changes negative around two-digits. Although there are sharp fluctuations in the data, there is suggestion of deceleration that would be expected from much higher earlier rates. The deceleration is quite evident in single-digit percentage changes from Sep 2011 to Dec 2012 relative to high double-digit percentage changes in Jan-Mar 2011. There are multiple negative 12-month percentage changes across many segments. Growth rates in the recovery from the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009 were initially very vigorous in comparison with the growth rates before the contraction that are shown in the bottom part of Table VE-3.
Table VE-3, Germany, Industry and Components, 12-Month ∆% Unadjusted
| IND | MFG | INTG | CG | DG | NDG | EN | |
| 2013 | |||||||
| Jun | 1.5 | 1.6 | -1.8 | 5.5 | 2.5 | -1.9 | -0.9 |
| May | -3.0 | -3.0 | -3.7 | -2.1 | -10.5 | -2.0 | -5.3 |
| Apr | 9.1 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 13.8 | 9.1 | 7.8 | -1.9 |
| Mar | -8.5 | -8.3 | -8.1 | -8.9 | -9.4 | -7.9 | 0.1 |
| Feb | -5.0 | -5.0 | -5.5 | -5.2 | -6.4 | -2.8 | -12.1 |
| Jan | -0.7 | -0.6 | -1.2 | -2.0 | -2.0 | 4.8 | -4.6 |
| 2012 | |||||||
| Dec | -9.6 | -9.3 | -11.8 | -8.5 | -12.4 | -7.1 | -2.3 |
| Nov | -3.2 | -3.1 | -4.0 | -2.7 | -7.6 | -1.3 | 0.7 |
| Oct | 3.9 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 6.9 | 3.2 |
| Sep | -7.7 | -7.6 | -9.0 | -7.2 | -11.1 | -5.4 | 3.9 |
| Aug | -1.1 | -1.1 | -3.3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 4.4 |
| Jul | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 4.7 | -2.3 | -0.8 | 2.1 |
| Jun | 4.0 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 0.4 | 6.9 |
| May | -6.8 | -6.7 | -7.2 | -5.9 | -10.6 | -7.7 | 4.0 |
| Apr | -0.9 | -0.9 | -1.8 | 1.9 | -5.3 | -5.7 | 4.0 |
| Mar | -0.4 | -0.3 | -3.0 | 2.8 | -6.0 | -2.2 | -0.8 |
| Feb | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 7.4 | 0.0 | -2.3 | 5.8 |
| Jan | 5.7 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 10.4 | 5.0 | 0.1 | -3.3 |
| 2011 | |||||||
| Dec | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 1.0 | -9.3 |
| Nov | 4.0 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 7.5 | 2.1 | -1.4 | -5.8 |
| Oct | 0.1 | 0.2 | -1.0 | 2.7 | -2.5 | -3.8 | -6.1 |
| Sep | 5.2 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 8.8 | 3.2 | -1.6 | -6.3 |
| Aug | 11.6 | 11.5 | 8.6 | 20.0 | 4.6 | 0.7 | -3.2 |
| Jul | 7.3 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 13.1 | 6.6 | -0.7 | -5.9 |
| Jun | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.6 | 1.9 | -10.3 | -2.5 | -4.8 |
| May | 20.8 | 20.5 | 16.9 | 27.7 | 20.5 | 12.4 | -7.4 |
| Apr | 6.8 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 10.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | -5.7 |
| Mar | 10.5 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 14.5 | 8.1 | 1.1 | 2.5 |
| Feb | 16.5 | 16.3 | 15.0 | 22.6 | 9.7 | 5.4 | -0.6 |
| Jan | 16.3 | 16.0 | 16.1 | 22.9 | 9.7 | 2.7 | -2.7 |
| 2010 | |||||||
| Dec | 17.6 | 17.6 | 15.0 | 25.8 | 8.3 | 1.5 | 2.5 |
| Nov | 14.0 | 14.0 | 13.0 | 19.3 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 3.5 |
| Oct | 9.9 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 14.1 | 6.3 | 0.6 | 2.4 |
| Sep | 9.8 | 9.5 | 12.1 | 10.1 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 2.1 |
| Aug | 17.0 | 17.0 | 19.3 | 19.9 | 18.3 | 7.1 | 1.3 |
| Jul | 9.0 | 8.7 | 13.1 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| Jun | 16.3 | 16.2 | 20.7 | 16.1 | 19.6 | 4.9 | -2.8 |
| May | 13.0 | 13.3 | 19.9 | 12.0 | 11.2 | 1.2 | 11.1 |
| Apr | 14.8 | 14.9 | 21.6 | 15.5 | 8.8 | -0.1 | 9.4 |
| Mar | 14.3 | 14.5 | 20.4 | 12.1 | 12.0 | 5.9 | 4.2 |
| Feb | 6.8 | 7.4 | 10.6 | 6.5 | 8.0 | -0.9 | 3.7 |
| Jan | 0.4 | 0.9 | 6.4 | -3.9 | 0.7 | -2.8 | 0.8 |
| Dec 2010 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 15.0 | 25.8 | 8.3 | 1.5 | 2.5 |
| Dec 2009 | -3.2 | -3.1 | 3.3 | -9.9 | -0.1 | 1.1 | 3.7 |
| Dec 2008 | -7.6 | -7.4 | -14.3 | -5.4 | -11.2 | 3.7 | -9.0 |
| Dec 2007 | 0.0 | -0.3 | -0.6 | 2.5 | -10.0 | -2.7 | 1.6 |
| Dec 2006 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 8.6 | -0.9 | -5.3 |
| Dec 2005 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| Dec 2004 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 5.7 | 9.6 |
| Dec 2003 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 4.4 | 0.3 |
| Dec 2002 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 5.4 | 3.4 | -5.9 | 2.3 | -2.6 |
Note: IND: Industry; MFG: Manufacturing; INTG: Intermediate Goods; CG: Capital Goods; DG: Durable Goods; NDG: Nondurable Goods; EN: Energy
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html
Broader perspective since 2005 is provided by Chart VE-1 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland, Federal Statistical Agency of Germany. The index of production industries not seasonally adjusted rises by more than one third between 2003 and 2008 with sharp fluctuations and then collapses during the global recession in 2008. Recovery has been in a steep upward trajectory that has recovered at the more recent peaks the losses during the contraction. Recovery was reversed by the drop in Dec 2011 with strong rebound into 2012 and another sharp drop in Apr 2012 with recovery in May 2012 and drops in Jun, Aug, Sep, Oct and Jan 2013 followed by recovery in Feb-Apr 2013. The index fell again in May 2013 but recovered in Jun 2013.
Chart VE-1, Germany, Production Industries, Not Adjusted, 2005=100
Source: Statistiche Bundesamt Deutschland
https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html
More detail is provided by Chart VE-2 of the Statistiche Bundesamt Deutschland, or Federal Statistical Agency of Germany, with the unadjusted production industries index and trend from 2009 to 2013. There could be some flattening in recent months probably leading into stagnation or mild downturn as depicted by trend.
Chart VE-2, Germany, Production Industries, Not Adjusted, 2005=100
Source: Statistiche Bundesamt Deutschland
https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html
Table VE-4 provides month and 12-month rates of growth of manufacturing in Germany from Dec 2010 to Jun 2013. There are fluctuations in both monthly rates and in the past 12 months.. In Jan 2013, manufacturing fell 1.0 percent and decreased 0.6 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing increased 0.8 percent in Feb 2013, declining 5.0 percent in 12 months. In Mar 2013, manufacturing increased 0.9 percent but fell 8.3 percent in 12 months. There is strong recovery in Apr 2013 with growth of 1.2 percent and 9.0 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 0.5 percent in May 2013 and declined 3.0 percent in 12 months. Recovery is strong in Jun 2013 with growth of 2.2 percent in the month and 1.6 percent in 12 months.
Table VE-4, Germany, Manufacturing Month and 12-Month ∆%
| 12-Month ∆% NSA | Month ∆% SA and Calendar Adjusted | |
| Jun 2013 | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| May | -3.0 | -0.5 |
| Apr | 9.0 | 1.2 |
| Mar | -8.3 | 0.9 |
| Feb | -5.0 | 0.8 |
| Jan | -0.6 | -1.0 |
| Dec 2012 | -9.3 | 1.1 |
| Nov | -3.1 | -0.1 |
| Oct | 3.8 | -1.5 |
| Sep | -7.6 | -1.5 |
| Aug | -1.1 | -0.1 |
| Jul | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| Jun | 3.9 | -1.1 |
| May | -6.7 | 1.8 |
| Apr | -0.9 | -2.0 |
| Mar | -0.3 | 1.0 |
| Feb | 3.3 | 0.3 |
| Jan | 5.6 | 0.7 |
| Dec 2011 | 0.8 | -1.6 |
| Nov | 3.9 | -0.2 |
| Oct | 0.2 | 0.9 |
| Sep | 5.2 | -1.9 |
| Aug | 11.5 | -0.5 |
| Jul | 7.3 | 3.1 |
| Jun | -0.2 | -1.3 |
| May | 20.5 | 0.8 |
| Apr | 6.7 | 0.4 |
| Mar | 10.4 | 0.8 |
| Feb | 16.3 | 1.2 |
| Jan | 16.0 | -0.7 |
| Dec | 17.6 | 1.3 |
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Destatis) https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html
Chart VE-3 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland, or Federal Statistical Office of Germany, provides the manufacturing index of Germany from 2009 to 2013. Manufacturing was already flattening in 2007 and fell sharply in 2008 to the beginning of 2010. Manufacturing grew sharply in the initial phase of recovery but has flattened in recent months as revealed by the trend that may be turning downward.
Chart VE-3, Germany, Production Index, Manufacturing, Not Adjusted Index and Trend, 2005=100
Source: Statistiche Bundesamt Deutschland https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html
Table VE-5 provides month and 12-month rates of growth of new orders of manufacturing in Germany from Jan 2010 to Jun 2013. There are fluctuations in both monthly rates and in the past 12 months. Table VE-5 reveals strong fluctuations in an evident deceleration of total orders for industry of Germany. Total orders for manufacturing rebounded 3.8 percent in Jun and 3.4 percent in 12months. There is the same behavior for total, foreign and domestic orders with decline in 12-month rates from two-digit levels to single digits and negative changes. An important aspect of Germany is that the bulk of orders is domestic or from other European countries while foreign orders have been growing rapidly. There is weakening world trade affecting export economies. As in other countries, data on orders for manufacturing are highly volatile. Most 12-month percentage changes from Jan 2012 to Sep 2012 in Table VE-1 are negative largely because of the unusual strength of the Germany economy in the beginning of 2011 but more recently because of slowing world economy in 2012-2013.
Table VE-5, Germany, Volume of Orders Received in Manufacturing, Total, Domestic and Foreign, ∆%
| Total | Total | Foreign 12 M | Foreign M | Home | Home | |
| 2013 | ||||||
| Jun | 3.4 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 0.2 | 3.3 |
| May | -3.7 | -0.5 | -1.9 | 0.5 | -6.1 | -1.7 |
| Apr | 5.7 | -1.9 | 7.3 | -1.1 | 3.5 | -2.9 |
| Mar | -5.9 | 2.2 | -4.9 | 2.7 | -7.3 | 1.7 |
| Feb | -3.1 | 2.1 | -2.0 | 2.0 | -4.6 | 2.1 |
| Jan | -1.0 | -1.4 | 0.5 | -2.7 | -2.7 | 0.2 |
| 2012 | ||||||
| Dec | -9.1 | 0.9 | -6.7 | 1.5 | -12.6 | 0.2 |
| Nov | -0.9 | -2.7 | 2.4 | -4.7 | -5.1 | -0.1 |
| Oct | 4.5 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Sep | -8.9 | -1.8 | -6.6 | -2.2 | -11.7 | -1.2 |
| Aug | -4.4 | -1.1 | -2.1 | -0.7 | -7.1 | -1.6 |
| Jul | -1.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | -4.2 | 0.6 |
| Jun | -4.5 | -2.2 | -6.4 | -2.3 | -1.7 | -2.1 |
| May | -11.0 | 1.0 | -3.7 | 2.4 | -18.8 | -0.9 |
| Apr | -3.9 | -1.9 | -4.4 | -2.8 | -3.1 | -0.9 |
| Mar | -2.2 | 2.4 | -1.2 | 3.4 | -3.3 | 1.3 |
| Feb | -4.3 | 0.4 | -4.7 | 1.1 | -3.8 | -0.6 |
| Jan | -2.6 | -1.6 | -4.6 | -2.7 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| 2011 | ||||||
| Dec | 0.0 | 2.1 | -0.3 | 4.3 | 0.5 | -0.6 |
| Nov | -4.8 | -2.9 | -8.2 | -5.1 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| Oct | 0.1 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.9 | -2.1 | 0.2 |
| Sep | 2.2 | -3.0 | 1.9 | -3.3 | 2.6 | -2.8 |
| Aug | 7.1 | -1.0 | 5.2 | -0.2 | 9.4 | -2.0 |
| Jul | 4.9 | -2.2 | 4.6 | -6.3 | 5.4 | 3.3 |
| Jun | 3.5 | -0.5 | 7.8 | 8.8 | -2.0 | -10.7 |
| May | 23.1 | 2.7 | 16.0 | -3.7 | 31.8 | 10.9 |
| Apr | 6.7 | 1.7 | 9.6 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| Mar | 9.8 | -3.0 | 12.3 | -3.0 | 6.9 | -3.1 |
| Feb | 21.5 | 0.7 | 24.1 | 0.0 | 18.4 | 1.7 |
| Jan | 22.5 | 4.2 | 26.1 | 4.2 | 18.2 | 4.3 |
| 2010 | ||||||
| Dec | 21.8 | -2.9 | 26.8 | -4.1 | 15.4 | -1.3 |
| Nov | 21.4 | 5.5 | 27.1 | 8.7 | 15.0 | 1.6 |
| Oct | 14.2 | 0.5 | 18.2 | -0.1 | 10.0 | 1.3 |
| Sep | 13.9 | -1.0 | 15.6 | -2.6 | 11.9 | 1.0 |
| Aug | 22.2 | 2.1 | 29.7 | 4.0 | 14.5 | -0.1 |
| Jul | 14.1 | -0.6 | 21.4 | -0.8 | 6.4 | -0.5 |
| Jun | 27.6 | 2.5 | 30.6 | 3.3 | 24.2 | 1.6 |
| May | 24.8 | -0.1 | 29.6 | 0.8 | 19.4 | -1.1 |
| Apr | 29.9 | 3.0 | 34.0 | 3.1 | 25.7 | 2.9 |
| Mar | 29.4 | 4.9 | 32.9 | 5.1 | 25.8 | 4.8 |
| Feb | 24.0 | -0.2 | 28.7 | 0.2 | 18.6 | -0.7 |
| Jan | 17.0 | 4.1 | 23.8 | 4.7 | 9.8 | 3.3 |
| Dec 2009 | 9.1 | -1.7 | 10.5 | -2.6 | 7.3 | -0.5 |
| Dec 2008 | -28.3 | -6.7 | -31.5 | -9.5 | -23.7 | -2.9 |
| Dec 2007 | 7.1 | -0.9 | 9.1 | -2.0 | 4.4 | 0.2 |
| Dec 2006 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| Dec 2005 | 5.0 | -0.5 | 10.4 | -1.1 | -1.4 | 0.3 |
| Dec 2004 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 12.7 | 4.9 |
| Dec 2003 | 10.7 | 2.4 | 16.4 | 5.4 | 5.1 | -0.8 |
| Dec 2002 | -0.2 | -3.4 | -0.8 | -6.6 | 0.2 | -0.3 |
| Average ∆% 2003-2007 | 7.6 | 10.4 | 4.5 | |||
| Average ∆% 2003-2012 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 0.3 |
Notes: AE: Annual Equivalent; M: Month; M: Calendar and seasonally adjusted; 12 M: Non-adjusted Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html
Orders for capital goods of Germany are shown in Table VE-6. Total capital goods orders increased 6.8 percent in Jun 2013 and 6.5 percent in 12 months. Domestic orders jumped 6.1 percent in Jun and foreign orders 7.3 percent. There has been evident deceleration from 2010 and early 2011 with growth rates falling from two digit levels to single digits and multiple negative changes. An important aspect of Germany’s economy shown in Tables VE-5 and VE-6 is the success in increasing the competitiveness of its economic activities as shown by rapid growth of orders for industry after the recession of 2001 in the period before the global recession beginning in late 2007. Germany adopted fiscal and labor market reforms to increase productivity.
Table VE-6, Germany, Volume of Orders Received of Capital Goods Industries, Total, Foreign and Domestic, ∆%
| Total 12 M | Total M | Foreign 12 M | Foreign M | Domestic 12 M | Domestic M | |
| 2013 | ||||||
| Jun | 6.5 | 6.8 | 10.0 | 7.3 | 0.8 | 6.1 |
| May | -3.6 | -0.6 | -1.1 | 1.4 | -7.9 | -4.0 |
| Apr | 5.6 | -2.7 | 6.5 | -3.0 | 3.9 | -2.1 |
| Mar | -6.1 | 1.9 | -4.6 | 3.0 | -8.5 | 0.1 |
| Feb | -0.7 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 2.5 | -4.3 | 4.0 |
| Jan | 1.3 | -2.2 | 3.6 | -2.8 | -2.3 | -1.0 |
| 2012 | ||||||
| Dec | -7.7 | 2.4 | -4.6 | 2.6 | -13.3 | 1.8 |
| Nov | -0.7 | -3.8 | 3.1 | -5.4 | -6.5 | -0.8 |
| Oct | 4.6 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| Sep | -7.5 | -0.7 | -4.8 | -0.3 | -11.6 | -1.3 |
| Aug | -4.6 | -2.5 | -2.6 | -2.0 | -7.4 | -3.2 |
| Jul | -0.3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | -2.7 | 0.6 |
| Jun | -7.1 | -2.2 | -9.9 | -2.5 | -1.9 | -1.8 |
| May | -12.0 | 1.1 | -2.8 | 2.1 | -23.9 | -0.6 |
| Apr | -3.3 | -3.5 | -4.2 | -4.4 | -1.7 | -2.0 |
| Mar | 2.2 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 7.5 | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| Feb | -5.9 | 1.4 | -7.0 | 1.3 | -4.2 | 1.4 |
| Jan | -3.7 | -3.6 | -6.5 | -4.2 | 1.0 | -2.8 |
| 2011 | ||||||
| Dec | 1.2 | 2.7 | -0.1 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 0.6 |
| Nov | -6.5 | -3.5 | -10.5 | -6.7 | 0.7 | 1.9 |
| Oct | 3.1 | 2.9 | 6.2 | 4.7 | -2.0 | 0.1 |
| Sep | 2.9 | -3.1 | 2.2 | -3.3 | 4.0 | -3.0 |
| Aug | 6.7 | -0.7 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 10.6 | -1.8 |
| Jul | 7.2 | -6.1 | 6.4 | -10.4 | 8.8 | 1.6 |
| Jun | 9.1 | 1.0 | 13.3 | 13.7 | 2.0 | -16.1 |
| May | 27.5 | 4.9 | 17.7 | -4.4 | 43.5 | 20.5 |
| Apr | 11.0 | 3.6 | 14.1 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 1.7 |
| Mar | 12.0 | -5.8 | 14.4 | -5.4 | 8.5 | -6.5 |
| Feb | 29.3 | 2.4 | 32.5 | 0.7 | 24.8 | 5.4 |
| Jan | 26.8 | 3.9 | 32.8 | 4.5 | 17.7 | 2.9 |
| 2010 | ||||||
| Dec | 27.4 | -5.2 | 31.2 | -6.9 | 21.1 | -2.0 |
| Nov | 30.4 | 9.6 | 37.0 | 13.9 | 20.1 | 2.7 |
| Oct | 20.5 | -0.2 | 24.9 | -1.8 | 14.3 | 2.4 |
| Sep | 18.2 | -1.9 | 20.3 | -3.5 | 14.7 | 0.8 |
| Aug | 27.5 | 4.9 | 40.0 | 6.7 | 11.5 | 2.1 |
| Jul | 14.1 | -2.1 | 28.1 | -2.3 | -2.5 | -1.7 |
| Jun | 32.0 | 3.5 | 38.7 | 5.2 | 22.1 | 0.6 |
| May | 26.2 | 1.7 | 36.6 | 1.8 | 12.8 | 1.5 |
| Apr | 31.0 | 2.9 | 41.4 | 3.7 | 18.1 | 1.7 |
| Mar | 25.8 | 6.5 | 33.8 | 7.3 | 15.7 | 5.0 |
| Feb | 21.2 | -1.1 | 31.3 | -0.1 | 8.3 | -2.6 |
| Jan | 17.0 | 4.4 | 29.6 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 7.1 |
| Dec 2009 | 8.1 | -1.2 | 13.6 | -1.5 | 0.3 | -1.0 |
| Dec 2008 | -32.2 | -7.2 | -36.8 | -10.0 | -24.5 | -3.6 |
| Dec 2007 | 9.4 | -0.6 | 11.6 | -2.3 | 6.1 | 2.2 |
| Dec 2006 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| Dec 2005 | 1.8 | -2.1 | 9.7 | -2.5 | -8.4 | -1.6 |
| Dec 2004 | 19.5 | 11.2 | 18.6 | 12.2 | 20.6 | 9.7 |
| Dec 2003 | 11.7 | 2.1 | 17.2 | 5.0 | 5.4 | -1.6 |
| Dec 2002 | -2.8 | -4.3 | -3.7 | -8.1 | -1.8 | 0.2 |
| Average ∆% 2003-2007 | 9.0 | 12.1 | 4.9 | |||
| Average ∆% 2003-2012 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 0.5 |
Notes: AE: Annual Equivalent; M: Month; M: Calendar and seasonally-adjusted; 12 M: Non-adjusted
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html
Chart VE-4 of the German Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland shows the sharp upward trend of total orders in manufacturing before the global recession. There is also an obvious upward trend in the recovery from the recession with Germany’s economy being among the most dynamic in the advanced economies until the slowdown beginning in the final months of 2011 and what could be stationary series from late 2011 into 2012 but risk of decline in the final segment.
Chart VE-4, Germany, Volume of Total Orders in Manufacturing, Non-Adjusted, 2005=100
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland
https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html
Chart VE-5 of the German Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland provides unadjusted volume of total orders in manufacturing and a trend curve. The final segment on the right could be the beginning of declining trend but it may be early to reach conclusions.
Chart VE-5, Germany, Volume of Total Orders in Manufacturing and Trend, Non-Adjusted, 2005=100
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland
https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html
Twelve-month rates of growth Germany’s exports and imports are shown in Table VE-7. There was sharp decline in the rates in Jun and Jul 2011 to single-digit levels especially for exports. In the 12 months ending in Aug 2011, exports rose 14.6 percent and imports 13.2 percent. In Sep 2011, exports grew 10.5 percent relative to a year earlier and imports grew 11.7 percent. Growth rates in 12 months ending in Oct 2011 fell significantly to 3.6 percent for exports and 9.2 percent for imports. Lower prices may explain part of the decline in nominal values. Exports fell 3.4 percent in 12 months ending in Sep 2012, rebounding to growth of 10.5 percent in Oct 2012 and minus 0.1 percent in Nov 2012 but sharp decline of 6.9 percent in Dec 2012 followed by rebound of 3.0 percent in Jan 2013. Exports fell 2.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2013 and declined 4.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Mar 2013. In Apr 2013, exports increased 8.3 percent relative to a year earlier. Exports fell 4.5 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2013. Exports fell 2.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2013 and imports fell 1.2 percent. Imports decreased 3.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Sep 2012, rebounding to growth of 6.0 percent in Oct 2012, decreasing 1.1 percent in Nov 2012 and 7.5 percent in Dec 2012 and rebounding 2.9 percent in Jan 2013. Imports fell 5.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2013 and declined 7.0 percent in Mar 2013. In Apr 2013, imports increased 5.1 percent relative to a year earlier. In May 2013, imports fell 2.8 percent relative to a year earlier. Imports fell 1.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2013. Growth was much stronger in the recovery during 2010 and 2011 from the fall from 2007 to 2009. Germany’s trade grew at high rates in 2006 and 2005.
Table VE-7, Germany, Exports and Imports NSA Euro Billions and 12-Month ∆%
| Exports EURO Billions | 12- Month | Imports | 12-Month | |
| Jun 2013 | 92.8 | -2.1 | 75.9 | -1.2 |
| May | 88.6 | -4.5 | 75.0 | -2.8 |
| Apr | 94.3 | 8.3 | 76.4 | 5.1 |
| Mar | 94.6 | -4.2 | 75.7 | -7.0 |
| Feb | 88.6 | -2.8 | 71.8 | -5.9 |
| Jan | 88.5 | 3.0 | 74.9 | 2.9 |
| Dec 2012 | 79.0 | -6.9 | 66.9 | -7.5 |
| Nov | 94.0 | -0.1 | 77.1 | -1.1 |
| Oct | 98.4 | 10.5 | 82.7 | 6.0 |
| Sep | 91.7 | -3.4 | 74.8 | -3.6 |
| Aug | 90.2 | 5.7 | 73.9 | 0.5 |
| Jul | 93.5 | 9.2 | 76.6 | 2.1 |
| Jun | 94.7 | 7.5 | 76.8 | 2.1 |
| May | 92.7 | 0.4 | 77.2 | -0.5 |
| Apr | 87.1 | 3.1 | 72.7 | -1.3 |
| Mar | 98.8 | 0.1 | 81.4 | 2.0 |
| Feb | 91.2 | 7.9 | 76.3 | 5.4 |
| Jan | 86.0 | 8.4 | 72.8 | 4.9 |
| Dec 2011 | 84.8 | 4.7 | 72.3 | 5.6 |
| Nov | 94.1 | 7.4 | 78.0 | 5.8 |
| Oct | 89.1 | 3.6 | 78.1 | 9.2 |
| Sep | 95.0 | 10.5 | 77.7 | 11.7 |
| Aug | 85.3 | 14.6 | 73.5 | 13.2 |
| Jul | 85.6 | 5.2 | 75.0 | 9.7 |
| Jun | 88.1 | 3.3 | 75.2 | 5.6 |
| May | 92.4 | 21.2 | 77.5 | 17.4 |
| Apr | 84.5 | 12.4 | 73.7 | 18.5 |
| Mar | 98.7 | 15.3 | 79.8 | 15.1 |
| Feb | 84.5 | 20.8 | 72.5 | 27.6 |
| Jan | 79.3 | 25.2 | 69.4 | 26.0 |
| Dec 2010 | 81.0 | 20.0 | 68.4 | 24.4 |
| Nov | 87.6 | 21.2 | 73.7 | 30.9 |
| Oct | 86.0 | 18.7 | 71.5 | 19.2 |
| Sep | 86.0 | 21.2 | 69.5 | 17.0 |
| Aug | 74.4 | 23.8 | 64.9 | 27.1 |
| Jul | 81.4 | 15.3 | 68.4 | 24.4 |
| Jun | 85.3 | 27.5 | 71.2 | 33.9 |
| May | 76.2 | 25.6 | 66.1 | 31.3 |
| Apr | 75.2 | 16.8 | 62.2 | 14.4 |
| Mar | 85.6 | 22.0 | 69.3 | 18.0 |
| Feb | 70.0 | 9.7 | 56.8 | 3.2 |
| Jan | 63.4 | -0.3 | 55.1 | -1.9 |
| Dec 2009 | 67.5 | 1.2 | 55.0 | -7.3 |
| Dec 2008 | 66.7 | -8.6 | 59.4 | -5.1 |
| Dec 2007 | 73.0 | -0.6 | 62.5 | -0.1 |
| Dec 2006 | 73.4 | 10.2 | 62.6 | 8.5 |
| Dec 2005 | 66.6 | 11.5 | 57.7 | 18.1 |
| Dec 2004 | 59.7 | 9.2 | 48.9 | 10.8 |
| Dec 2003 | 54.7 | 7.6 | 44.1 | 3.9 |
| Dec 2002 | 50.8 | 5.5 | 42.5 | 6.4 |
| Dec 2001 | 48.2 | -3.7 | 39.9 | -17.5 |
| Dec 2000 | 50.0 | 48.4 |
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html
Chart VE-6 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland shows exports and trend of German exports. Growth has been with fluctuations around a strong upward trend that is milder than earlier in the recovery but could be flattening or even falling.
Chart VE-6, Germany, Exports Original Value and Trend 2008-2012
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland
https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html
Chart VE-7 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland provides German imports and trend. Imports also fell sharply and have been recovering with fluctuations around a strong upward trend that could be flattening.
Chart VE-7, Germany, Imports Original Value and Trend 2008-2012
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland
https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html
Chart VE-8 of the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland shows the trade balance of Germany since 2008. There was sharp decline during the global recession and fluctuations around a mild upward trend during the recovery with stabilization followed by stronger trend in recent months and flattening/declining recently.
Chart VE-8, Germany, Trade Balance Original and Trend 2008-2012
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland
https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/ShortTermIndicators.html
Table VE-8 provides monthly rates of growth of exports and imports of Germany. Exports increased 0.6 percent in Jun 2013 while imports decreased 0.8 percent. Exports fell 2.0 percent in May 2013 while imports increased 1.4 percent. There is strong recovery in Apr 2013 with growth of exports of 1.4 percent and of imports of 1.2 percent. Export growth had been relatively strong from Dec 2012 to Apr 2013 with only one monthly decline of 1.2 percent in Feb 2013. Export growth and import growth were vigorous in Jan-Mar 2011 when Germany’s economy outperformed most advanced economies but less dynamic and consistent in following months as world trade weakens.
Table VE-8, Germany, Exports and Imports Month ∆% Calendar and Seasonally Adjusted
| Exports | Imports | |
| Jun 2013 | 0.6 | -0.8 |
| May | -2.0 | 1.4 |
| Apr | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Mar | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| Feb | -1.2 | -3.4 |
| Jan | 1.5 | 3.3 |
| Dec 2012 | 0.4 | -1.4 |
| Nov | -2.2 | -3.8 |
| Oct | 0.1 | 2.7 |
| Sep | -1.9 | -0.8 |
| Aug | 1.6 | -0.1 |
| Jul | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Jun | -0.9 | -2.0 |
| May | 4.1 | 5.3 |
| Apr | -1.2 | -4.7 |
| Mar | -0.3 | 0.8 |
| Feb | 1.2 | 3.3 |
| Jan | 2.8 | 0.3 |
| Dec 2011 | -2.8 | -1.8 |
| Nov | 2.8 | -0.2 |
| Oct | -3.4 | -0.3 |
| Sep | 1.8 | 0.1 |
| Aug | 2.6 | -0.1 |
| Jul | -1.4 | 0.3 |
| Jun | -0.4 | 0.1 |
| May | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Apr | -3.2 | -0.3 |
| Mar | 4.6 | 2.1 |
| Feb | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Jan | 1.1 | 3.3 |
| Dec 2010 | -0.1 | -1.9 |
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/08/PE13_262_51.html
There is extremely important information in Table VE-9 for the current sovereign risk crisis in the euro zone. Table VE-9 provides the structure of regional and country relations of Germany’s exports and imports with newly available data for Jun 2013. German exports to other European Union (EU) members are 57.8 percent of total exports in Jun 2013 and 57.3 percent in cumulative Jan-Jun 2013. Exports to the euro area are 37.7 percent in Jun and 37.4 percent cumulative in Jan-Jun. Exports to third countries are 42.2 percent of the total in Jun and 42.7 percent cumulative in Jan-Jun. There is similar distribution for imports. Exports to non-euro countries are increasing 2.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2013, increasing 1.1 percent cumulative in Jan-Jun 2013 while exports to the euro area are decreasing 1.4 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2013 and decreasing 3.1 percent cumulative in Jan-Jun 2013. Exports to third countries, accounting for 42.2 percent of the total in Jun 2013, are decreasing 4.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2013 and increasing 1.0 percent cumulative in Jan-Jun 2013, accounting for 42.7 percent of the cumulative total in Jan-Jun 2013. Price competitiveness through devaluation could improve export performance and growth. Economic performance in Germany is closely related to its high competitiveness in world markets. Weakness in the euro zone and the European Union in general could affect the German economy. This may be the major reason for choosing the “fiscal abuse” of the European Central Bank considered by Buiter (2011Oct31) over the breakdown of the euro zone. There is a tough analytical, empirical and forecasting doubt of growth and trade in the euro zone and the world with or without maintenance of the European Monetary Union (EMU) or euro zone. Germany could benefit from depreciation of the euro because of high share in its exports to countries not in the euro zone but breakdown of the euro zone raises doubts on the region’s economic growth that could affect German exports to other member states.
Table VE-9, Germany, Structure of Exports and Imports by Region, € Billions and ∆%
| Jun 2013 | Jun 12-Month | Cumulative Jan-Jun 2012 € Billions | Cumulative Jan-Jun 2013/ | |
| Total | 92.8 | -2.1 | 547.4 | -0.6 |
| A. EU | 53.6 % 57.8 | -0.1 | 313.7 % 57.3 | -1.7 |
| Euro Area | 35.0 % 37.7 | -1.4 | 205.0 % 37.4 | -3.1 |
| Non-euro Area | 18.6 % 20.0 | 2.2 | 108.7 % 19.9 | 1.1 |
| B. Third Countries | 39.2 % 42.2 | -4.6 | 233.7 % 42.7 | 1.0 |
| Total Imports | 75.9 | -1.2 | 449.7 | -1.6 |
| C. EU Members | 49.1 % 64.7 | -0.3 | 291.0 % 64.7 | 0.1 |
| Euro Area | 34.8 % 45.8 | -0.5 | 203.5 % 45.3 | -0.8 |
| Non-euro Area | 14.3 % 18.8 | 0.0 | 87.4 % 19.4 | 2.1 |
| D. Third Countries | 26.7 % 35.2 | -2.7 | 158.7 % 35.3 | -4.6 |
Notes: Total Exports = A+B; Total Imports = C+D
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland
https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2013/08/PE13_262_51.html
VF France. Table VF-FR provides growth rates of GDP of France with the estimates of Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE). The long-term rate of GDP growth of France from IVQ1949 to IVQ2012 is quite high at 3.2 percent. France’s growth rates were quite high in the four decades of the 1950s, 1960, 1970s and 1980s with an average growth rate of 4.0 percent compounding the average rates in the decades and discounting to one decade. The growth impulse diminished with 1.9 percent in the 1990s and 1.7 percent from 2000 to 2007. The average growth rate from 2000 to 2012, using fourth quarter data, is 1.0 percent because of the sharp impact of the global recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. The growth rate from 2000 to 2012 is 1.0 percent. Cobet and Wilson (2002) provide estimates of output per hour and unit labor costs in national currency and US dollars for the US, Japan and Germany from 1950 to 2000 (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 137-44). The average yearly rate of productivity change from 1950 to 2000 was 2.9 percent in the US, 6.3 percent for Japan and 4.7 percent for Germany while unit labor costs in USD increased at 2.6 percent in the US, 4.7 percent in Japan and 4.3 percent in Germany. From 1995 to 2000, output per hour increased at the average yearly rate of 4.6 percent in the US, 3.9 percent in Japan and 2.6 percent in Germany while unit labor costs in US fell at minus 0.7 percent in the US, 4.3 percent in Japan and 7.5 percent in Germany. There was increase in productivity growth in the G7 in Japan and France in the second half of the 1990s but significantly lower than the acceleration of 1.3 percentage points per year in the US. Lucas (2011May) compares growth of the G7 economies (US, UK, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Canada) and Spain, finding that catch-up growth with earlier rates for the US and UK stalled in the 1970s.
Table VF-FR, France, Average Growth Rates of GDP Fourth Quarter, 1949-2012
| Period | Average ∆% |
| 1949-2012 | 3.2 |
| 2000-2012 | 1.0 |
| 2000-2011 | 1.1 |
| 2000-2007 | 1.7 |
| 1990-1999 | 1.9 |
| 1980-1989 | 2.5 |
| 1970-1979 | 3.8 |
| 1960-1969 | 5.7 |
| 1950-1959 | 4.2 |
Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=28&date=20130626
The Markit Flash France Composite Output Index increased from 47.4 in Jun to 48.8 in Jul for the highest reading in seventeen months (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/ff874f59bf1442d3a8c96ef0a33d8ac0). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report, finds that the data suggest improvement with manufacturing suggestin increase in output while decline of services slowed (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/ff874f59bf1442d3a8c96ef0a33d8ac0). The Markit France Composite Output Index, combining services and manufacturing with close association with French GDP, increased from 47.2 in Jun to 48.6 in Jul, indicating contraction of private sector activity at the slowest rate of deterioration in 2013 and the highest reading in 11 months (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/7abaa1cb58d042259fc021c8296d53b1). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the France Services PMI®, finds highest expectations of future activity in service providers in a year (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/7abaa1cb58d042259fc021c8296d53b1). The Markit France Services Activity index increased from 47.2 in Jun to 48.6 in Jul for the highest reading in 11 months (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/7abaa1cb58d042259fc021c8296d53b1). The Markit France Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index® increased to 49.7 in Jul from 48.4 in May, for the highest reading in sixteen consecutive months below the neutral level of 50.0 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e26a4ad0796b42ac96c0c345d8d518c0). Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the France Manufacturing PMI®, finds the first increase in manufacturing output in 17 months (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/e26a4ad0796b42ac96c0c345d8d518c0). Table FR provides the country data table for France.
Table FR, France, Economic Indicators
| CPI | Jun month ∆% 0.2 |
| PPI | Jun month ∆%: -0.2 Blog 8/4/13 |
| GDP Growth | IQ2013/IQ2012 ∆%: -0.4 |
| Industrial Production | Jun ∆%: |
| Consumer Spending | Manufactured Goods |
| Employment | Unemployment Rate: 10.4% |
| Trade Balance | Jun Exports ∆%: month 0.6, 12 months -1.2 Jun Imports ∆%: month -2.6, 12 months -5.9 Blog 8/11/13 |
| Confidence Indicators | Historical averages 100 Jul Mfg Business Climate 95 Blog 7/28/13 |
Links to blog comments in Table FR:
8/4/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/risks-of-steepening-yield-curve-and.html
7/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html
7/14/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/recovery-without-hiring-tapering.html
6/30/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/tapering-quantitative-easing-policy-and.html
6/9/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/twenty-eight-million-unemployed-or.html
5/19/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/word-inflation-waves-squeeze-of.html
Table VF-1 provides longer historical perspective of manufacturing in France. Output of manufacturing decreased 0.4 percent in Jun 2013 and fell 0.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2013. Manufacturing increased 2.6 percent in Apr 2013 and changed 0.0 percent in 12 months. Manufacturing fell 0.9 percent in Mar 2013 and 4.1 percent relative to a year earlier. Growth of 1.3 percent in Dec 2012 pulled down the 12-month rate of decline from 6.1 percent in Nov 2012 to 3.3 percent in Dec 2012. Manufacturing in France fell 14.1 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2008 and 4.2 percent in Dec 2009.
Table VF-1, France, Manufacturing, Month and 12-Month ∆%
| Month ∆% | 12-Month ∆% | |
| Jun 2013 | -0.4 | -0.6 |
| May | -0.9 | -0.3 |
| Apr | 2.6 | 0.0 |
| Mar | -0.9 | -4.1 |
| Feb | 0.8 | -1.7 |
| Jan | -1.2 | -4.2 |
| Dec 2012 | 1.3 | -3.3 |
| Nov | -0.9 | -6.1 |
| Oct | -1.2 | -3.2 |
| Sep | -2.7 | -2.3 |
| Aug | 2.0 | -0.6 |
| Jul | 1.1 | -2.5 |
| Jun | -0.1 | -3.4 |
| May | -0.6 | -5.1 |
| Apr | -1.7 | -3.0 |
| Mar | 1.6 | -2.3 |
| Feb | -1.8 | -5.2 |
| Jan | -0.3 | -2.8 |
| Dec 2011 | -1.5 | -0.5 |
| Nov | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Oct | -0.2 | 1.9 |
| Sep | -1.1 | 1.2 |
| Aug | 0.0 | 3.6 |
| Jul | 0.2 | 3.2 |
| Jun | -1.9 | 3.3 |
| May | 1.6 | 4.5 |
| Apr | -1.0 | 3.7 |
| Mar | -1.4 | 5.3 |
| Feb | 0.8 | 8.9 |
| Jan | 2.0 | 8.0 |
| Dec 2010 | 0.7 | 5.8 |
| Dec 2009 | -4.2 | |
| Dec 2008 | -14.1 | |
| Dec 2007 | -0.9 | |
| Dec 2006 | 2.7 | |
| Dec 2005 | 0.7 | |
| Dec 2004 | 0.9 | |
| Dec 2003 | 0.2 | |
| Dec 2002 | -1.0 | |
| Dec 2001 | -5.5 | |
| Dec 2000 | 4.7 |
Source:
Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques
http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=10&date=20130809
Chart VF-1 of the Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques provides France’s index of manufacturing, adjusted for working days and seasonal effects, from Jan 1990 to Jun 2013. Growth was robust in the 1990s and in recovery from the 2001 recession. Manufacturing output fell sharply during the global recession followed by recovery and another trend of decline.
Chart VF-1, France, Index of Manufacturing 2010=100, Jan 1990-Jun 2013, Seasonal and Working-Day Adjusted
Source:
Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques
http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=10&date=20130809
Chart VF-2 of France’s Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques shows indices of manufacturing in France from 2009 to 2013. Manufacturing, which is CZ in Chart VF-2, fell deeply in 2008 and part of 2009. All curves of industrial indices tend to flatten recently with oscillations and declines and marginal improvement followed by renewed decline/stability in the final segment with jump in Mar-Apr 2013. Manufacturing fell in May-Jun 2013.
Chart VF-2, France, Industrial Production Indices 2007-2011
Legend : CZ : Manufacturing – (C1) : Manufacture of food products and beverages – (C3) : Electrical and electronic equipment; machine equipment – (C4) : Manufacture of transport equipment – (C5) : Other manufacturing
Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques
http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=10&date=20130809
The monthly report of household expenditures in consumption goods for France is in Table VF-2. Total consumption decreased 0.8 percent in Jun 2013 after increasing 0.7 percent in May 2013 and decreasing 0.7 percent in Apr 2013. Consumption of manufactured products decreased 0.4 percent in Jun 2013 after increasing 0.9 percent in May 2013 and decreasing 0.5 percent in Apr 2013. Total consumption decreased 0.5 percent in Jun 2013 relative to Jun 2012 and consumption of manufactured goods decreased 0.8 percent in Jun 2013 relative to Jun 2012. Internal demand is weak throughout most advanced economies.
Table VF-2, France, Household Expenditures in Consumption Goods, Month ∆% Chained Billion Euros Trading-Days SA
| Total | Food | Eng. Goods | Energy | Mfg | |
| Jun 2013 | -0.8 | -0.6 | 0.7 | -4.3 | -0.4 |
| Jun/Jun 2012 | -0.5 | -1.1 | -0.5 | 0.4 | -0.8 |
| May | 0.7 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Apr | -0.7 | -3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | -0.5 |
| Mar | 1.3 | 2.6 | -0.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 |
| Feb | -0.3 | -0.7 | -0.7 | 1.7 | -0.7 |
| Jan | -0.5 | 0.6 | -2.2 | 1.6 | -1.1 |
| Dec 2012 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.5 | -3.9 | 0.6 |
| Nov | 0.1 | -0.5 | -0.3 | 2.2 | -0.2 |
| Oct | -0.1 | -0.6 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Sep | 0.0 | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | -0.1 |
| Aug | -0.7 | 0.1 | -0.8 | -2.2 | -0.9 |
| Jul | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Jun | 0.5 | 1.2 | -0.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| May | 0.1 | -0.5 | 1.8 | -2.8 | 1.0 |
| Apr | 0.2 | -0.1 | -2.9 | 9.1 | -1.5 |
| Mar | -3.0 | -2.0 | 1.0 | -13.8 | -0.8 |
| Feb | 2.7 | 1.8 | -0.2 | 12.4 | 1.1 |
| Jan | -0.2 | 0.9 | -1.6 | 1.4 | -0.5 |
| Dec 2011 | -0.2 | -0.8 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -0.3 |
| Nov | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | -2.0 | -0.2 |
| Oct | -0.1 | -0.7 | 0.4 | -0.6 | -0.1 |
| Sep | -0.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 | -3.2 | -0.3 |
| Aug | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| Jul | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.3 | 0.7 | -0.1 |
| Jun | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 0.3 |
| May | 0.3 | -0.6 | -0.2 | 4.2 | -0.6 |
| Apr | -2.1 | 0.5 | -2.7 | -6.2 | -1.5 |
| Mar | -0.7 | -0.4 | -0.8 | -1.0 | -0.9 |
| Feb | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.8 | -1.9 | 1.4 |
| Jan | -1.3 | -0.8 | -0.2 | -5.1 | -0.6 |
| Dec 2010 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 3.6 | 0.5 |
Eng. Goods: Engineered Goods
Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=19&date=20130731
Chart VF-3 of the Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques of France provides consumption of manufactured goods in France in volumes of chained 2005 billion euro from Jan 1980 to Jun 2013. Consumption of manufactured goods increased above the level before the global recession but shows declining trend in recent months.
Char VF-3, France, Consumption of Manufactured Goods, Volume Chained 2005 Billion Euro and Converted Euro, Jan 1980 to Jun 2013
Adjusted and Quarterly ∆%
Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques
http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=19&date=20130731
Chart VF-4 of Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques of France provides growth of total consumption in France. Internal demand is not supporting overall economic growth. There is downward trend of monthly consumption with fluctuations and stability in the final segment followed by another drop in Jan-Feb 2013 and increase in Mar 2013 but renewed decrease in Apr 2013. Consumption rose again in May 2013 and fell in Jun 2013.
Chart VF-4, France, Total Consumption of Goods, Billions of Euros Trading and Seasonally Adjusted and Quarterly ∆%
Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques
http://www.insee.fr/en/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=19&date=20130731
France has been running a trade deficit fluctuating around €6,000 million as shown in Table VF-3. Exports increased 0.6 percent in Jun 2013 while imports decreased 2.6 percent. The trade deficit decreased from revised €5713 million in May 2013 to €4444 million in Jun 2013 partly because of the higher value of imports than exports in May 2013.
Table VF-3, France, Exports, Imports and Trade Balance, € Millions
| Exports | Imports | Trade Balance | |
| Jun 2013 | 36,162 | 40,606 | -4,444 |
| May | 35,694 | 41,677 | -5,713 |
| Apr | 38,079 | 42,012 | -3,933 |
| Mar | 36,146 | 40,715 | -4,569 |
| Feb | 35,625 | 41,407 | -5,782 |
| Jan | 36,434 | 41,954 | -5,520 |
| Dec 2012 | 37,357 | 43,072 | -5,715 |
| Nov | 36,199 | 40,999 | -4,800 |
| Oct | 37,264 | 42,355 | -5,091 |
| Sep | 37,284 | 42,504 | -5,220 |
| Aug | 38,056 | 43,719 | -5,663 |
| Jul | 36,591 | 41,315 | -4,724 |
| Jun | 36,602 | 43,141 | -6,539 |
| May | 37,704 | 42,993 | -5,289 |
| Apr | 36,575 | 42,593 | -6,018 |
| Mar | 36,442 | 42,345 | -5,923 |
| Feb | 37,161 | 43,511 | -6,350 |
| Jan | 36,607 | 42,241 | -5,634 |
| Dec 2011 | 35,996 | 41,526 | -5,530 |
| Dec 2010 | 33,784 | 39,533 | -5,749 |
Source: France, Direction générale des douanes et droits indirects
http://lekiosque.finances.gouv.fr/AppChiffre/Portail_default.asp
Table VF-4 provides month and 12-month percentage changes of France’s exports and imports. Exports increased 0.6 percent in Jun 2013 and decreased 1.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2013. Imports decreased 2.6 percent in Jun 2013 and decreased 5.9 percent in 12 months. Growth of exports and imports has fluctuated in 2011, 2012 and 2013 because of price surges of commodities and raw materials. Weak economic conditions worldwide also influence trade performance.
Table VF-4, France, Exports and Imports, Month and 12-Month ∆%
| Exports | Exports | Imports | Imports 12-Month ∆% | |
| Jun 2013 | 0.6 | -1.2 | -2.6 | -5.9 |
| May | -5.6 | -4.6 | -0.8 | -3.1 |
| Apr | 5.3 | 4.1 | 3.2 | -1.4 |
| Mar | 1.5 | -0.8 | -1.7 | -3.8 |
| Feb | -2.2 | -4.1 | -1.3 | -4.8 |
| Jan | -2.4 | -0.5 | -2.4 | -0.7 |
| Dec 2012 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.7 |
| Dec 2011 | 6.5 | 5.0 | ||
| Dec 2010 | 13.4 | 15.0 | ||
| Dec 2009 | -9.6 | -2.1 | ||
| Dec 2008 | -6.8 | -10.8 | ||
| Dec 2007 | 5.9 | 8.3 | ||
| Dec 2006 | 6.3 | 6.7 | ||
| Dec 2005 | 11.7 | 15.2 | ||
| Dec 2004 | -3.7 | 5.8 | ||
| Dec 2003 | 7.1 | 1.6 |
Source: France, Direction générale des douanes et droits indirects
http://lekiosque.finances.gouv.fr/AppChiffre/Portail_default.asp
Annual data for France’s exports, imports and trade balance are provided in Table VF-4. France’s trade balance deteriorated sharply from 2007 to 2011 with the deficit increasing from €42,494 million in 2007 to €73,724 million in 2011. Annual growth rates of exports have not been sufficiently high to compensate for growth of imports driven in part by commodity price increases. In 2012, the trade deficit declined to €67,033 million with growth of exports of 3.1 percent and of imports of 1.3 percent.
Table VF-5, France, Exports, Imports and Balance Year € Millions and ∆%
| Exports € Millions | ∆% | Imports € Millions | ∆% | Balance € Millions | |
| Jun 2013 12 Months | 438,266 | 499,328 | -61,062 | ||
| Year | |||||
| 2012 | 441,599 | 3.1 | 508,632 | 1.3 | -67,033 |
| 2011 | 428,316 | 8.4 | 502,040 | 12.2 | -73,724 |
| 2010 | 395,032 | 14.0 | 447,451 | 14.2 | -52,419 |
| 2009 | 346,481 | -17.0 | 391,872 | -17.3 | -45,391 |
| 2008 | 417,636 | 2.7 | 473,853 | 5.5 | -56,217 |
| 2007 | 406,487 | 3.0 | 448,981 | 5.8 | -42,494 |
| 2006 | 394,621 | 9.5 | 424,549 | 10.4 | -29,928 |
| 2005 | 360,376 | 4.4 | 384,588 | 9.6 | -24,212 |
| 2004 | 345,256 | 5.4 | 350,996 | 7.0 | -5,740 |
| 2003 | 327,653 | 327,884 | -231 |
Source: France, Direction générale des douanes et droits indirects
http://lekiosque.finances.gouv.fr/AppChiffre/Portail_default.asp
VG Italy. Table VG-IT provides percentage changes in a quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier of Italy’s expenditure components in chained volume measures. GDP has been declining at sharper rates from minus 0.5 percent in IVQ2011 to minus 2.8 percent in IVQ2012, minus 2.4 percent in IQ2013 and minus 2.0 percent in IIQ2013. The aggregate demand components of consumption and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) have been declining at faster rates.
Table VG-IT, Italy, GDP and Expenditure Components, Chained Volume Measures, Quarter ∆% on Same Quarter Year Earlier
| GDP | Imports | Consumption | GFCF | Exports | |
| 2013 | |||||
| IIQ2013 | -2.0 | ||||
| IQ | -2.3 | -5.2 | -2.7 | -7.5 | -0.2 |
| 2012 | |||||
| IVQ | -2.8 | -6.7 | -4.2 | -7.8 | 1.8 |
| IIIQ | -2.6 | -8.1 | -4.3 | -8.2 | 2.5 |
| IIQ | -2.4 | -7.5 | -3.9 | -8.3 | 2.5 |
| IQ | -1.7 | -8.9 | -3.3 | -7.6 | 2.1 |
| 2011 | |||||
| IVQ | -0.5 | -6.9 | -1.8 | -3.3 | 3.1 |
| IIIQ | 0.3 | 0.1 | -0.7 | -2.1 | 5.6 |
| IIQ | 0.9 | 3.1 | 0.6 | -0.6 | 7.0 |
| IQ | 1.3 | 8.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 10.9 |
| 2010 | |||||
| IVQ | 2.0 | 15.3 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 13.2 |
| IIIQ | 1.8 | 13.2 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 12.0 |
| IIQ | 1.9 | 13.5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 12.0 |
| IQ | 1.1 | 7.2 | 0.8 | -2.0 | 7.3 |
| 2009 | |||||
| IVQ | -3.4 | -6.4 | 0.2 | -7.8 | -9.3 |
| IIIQ | -4.9 | -12.2 | -0.8 | -12.6 | -16.4 |
| IIQ | -6.6 | -17.9 | -1.5 | -13.6 | -21.4 |
| IQ | -7.0 | -17.2 | -1.7 | -12.6 | -22.8 |
| 2008 | |||||
| IVQ | -3.0 | -8.2 | -0.9 | -8.3 | -10.3 |
| IIIQ | -1.9 | -5.0 | -0.8 | -4.5 | -3.9 |
| IIQ | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -1.5 | 0.4 |
| IQ | 0.5 | 1.7 | 0.1 | -1.0 | 2.9 |
GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation
Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/92338 http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/97261
The Markit/ADACI Business Activity Index increased from 45.8 in Jun to 48.7 in Jun, indicating marginal contraction of output of Italy’s services sector for 26 consecutive months of decline since Jun 2011 with contraction at moderate rhythm (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/5f3d71c9285442b7abcf5bd2a2b99b5b). Phil Smith, Economist at Markit and author of the Italy Services PMI®, finds weak new business for services providers (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/5f3d71c9285442b7abcf5bd2a2b99b5b). The Markit/ADACI Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®), increased from 49.1 in Jun to 50.4 in Jul, interrupting 23 consecutive months of contraction of Italy’s manufacturing below 50.0 with the Jul reading at the highest level since May 2011 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/a32a5ae7763342d280c903358a424ade). Phil Smith, Economist at Markit and author of the Italian Manufacturing PMI®, finds that manufacturing has been improving by obtaining foreign orders with internal demand still weak (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/a32a5ae7763342d280c903358a424ade). Table IT provides the country data table for Italy.
Table IT, Italy, Economic Indicators
| Consumer Price Index | Jul month ∆%: 0.1 |
| Producer Price Index | Jun month ∆%: 0.4 Blog 8/4/13 |
| GDP Growth | IIQ2013/IQ2013 SA ∆%: minus 0.2 |
| Labor Report | Apr 2013 Participation rate 63.8% Employment ratio 56.0% Unemployment rate 12.0% Blog 6/2/13 |
| Industrial Production | Jun month ∆%: 0.3 |
| Retail Sales | May month ∆%: 0.1 May 12-month ∆%: -1.1 Blog 7/28/13 |
| Business Confidence | Mfg Jul 91.7, Mar 89.0 Construction Jul 76.5, Mar 79.4 Blog 8/4/13 |
| Trade Balance | Balance Jun SA €3155 million versus May €2683 |
Links to blog comments in Table IT:
8/4/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/risks-of-steepening-yield-curve-and.html
7/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html
6/16/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/recovery-without-hiring-seven-million.html
6/2/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/mediocre-united-states-economic-growth.html
3/17/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/recovery-without-hiring-ten-million.html
Table VG-1 provides revised percentage changes of GDP in Italy of quarter on prior quarter and quarter on same quarter a year earlier. Italy’s GDP fell 0.2 percent in IIQ2013 and declined 2.0 percent relative to IIQ2012. GDP had been growing during six consecutive quarters but at very low rates from IQ2010 to IIQ2011. Italy’s GDP has fallen in eight consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 to IIQ2013 at increasingly higher rates of contraction from 0.1 percent in IIIQ2011 to 0.7 percent in IVQ2011, 1.0 percent in IQ2012 and 0.6 percent in IIQ2012 but at lower 0.3 percent in IIIQ2012. The pace of decline accelerated to minus 0.9 percent in IVQ2012 and 0.6 percent in IQ2013. There is deceleration to minus 0.2 percent in IIQ2013. GDP contracted cumulatively 4.3 percent in eight consecutive quarterly contractions from IIIQ2011 to IIQ2013 at the annual equivalent rate of 2.2 percent. The yearly rate has fallen from 2.0 percent in IVQ2010 to minus 2.0 percent in IIQ2013. The fiscal adjustment of Italy is significantly more difficult with the economy not growing especially on the prospects of increasing government revenue. The strategy is for reforms to improve productivity, facilitating future fiscal consolidation.
Table VG-1, Italy, GDP ∆%
| Quarter ∆% Relative to Preceding Quarter | Quarter ∆% Relative to Same Quarter Year Earlier | |
| IIQ2013 | -0.2 | -2.0 |
| IQ2013 | -0.6 | -2.3 |
| IVQ2012 | -0.9 | -2.8 |
| IIIQ2012 | -0.3 | -2.6 |
| IIQ2012 | -0.6 | -2.4 |
| IQ2012 | -1.0 | -1.7 |
| IVQ2011 | -0.7 | -0.5 |
| IIIQ2011 | -0.1 | 0.3 |
| IIQ2011 | 0.1 | 0.9 |
| IQ2011 | 0.2 | 1.3 |
| IVQ2010 | 0.2 | 2.0 |
| IIIQ2010 | 0.4 | 1.8 |
| IIQ2010 | 0.6 | 1.9 |
| IQ2010 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| IVQ2009 | 0.0 | -3.4 |
| IIIQ2009 | 0.5 | -4.9 |
| IIQ2009 | -0.2 | -6.6 |
| IQ2009 | -3.6 | -7.0 |
| IVQ2008 | -1.6 | -3.0 |
| IIIQ2008 | -1.3 | -1.9 |
| IIQ2008 | -0.5 | -0.2 |
| IQ2008 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| IV2007 | -0.4 | 0.1 |
| IIIQ2007 | 0.3 | 1.7 |
| IIQ2007 | 0.2 | 2.0 |
| IQ2007 | 0.0 | 2.4 |
Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica
http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/97261
Chart VG-1 of the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) provides growth of GDP of Italy at market prices. The year on year rate of growth pulled strongly out of the contraction. There is evident trend of deceleration with increasingly sharper contraction and mild moderation in IQ2013 that continued in IIQ2013.
Chart VG-1, Italy, GDP, ∆% Month and Year-on-Year
Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica http://www.istat.it/en/
Italy’s industrial production increased 0.3 percent in Jun 2013 and fell 2.1 percent in 12 months. Industrial production increased 0.1 percent in May 2013 and fell 4.3 percent in 12 months, as shown in Table VG-2. Industrial production decreased 0.3 percent in Apr 2013 with decline of the 12-month rate of growth to minus 4.7 percent with calendar adjustment (CA) from minus 7.4 percent in Dec 2012. In the quarter Sep-Nov 2012, industrial production fell cumulative 3.0 percent, at the annual equivalent rate of 11.4 percent. Industrial production recovered with growth of 0.5 percent in May 2013 but growth in the 12 months ending in May 2012 was minus 5.8 percent. Industrial production fell 7.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Nov 2012. There have been negative changes with oscillations in monthly industrial production. Industrial production fell 18.8 percent in 2009 after falling 3.2 percent in 2008.
Table VG-2, Italy, Industrial Production ∆%
| Index CA | ∆% CA | Index | ∆% | |||
| 2011 | - | - | 101.1 | 1.1 | 100.3 | 0.3 |
| 2012 | - | - | 94.6 | -6.4 | 94.2 | -6.1 |
| Quarter | Index SA | Quarter | Index CA | 4Q ∆% | Index | 12 M |
| IIIQ12 | 94.4 | -0.4 | 90.4 | -5.1 | 88.7 | -6.1 |
| IVQ12 | 92.4 | -2.1 | 92.5 | -6.9 | 92.4 | -5.7 |
| 2013 | ||||||
| IQ13 | 92.2 | -0.2 | 92.5 | -4.2 | 91.8 | -6.1 |
| IIQ13 | 91.4 | -0.9 | 95.1 | -3.6 | 94.8 | -3.3 |
| Index SA | Month ∆% | Index CA | 12 M ∆% | Index | 12 M | |
| 2011 | ||||||
| Jun | 100.9 | -0.7 | 106.5 | -0.1 | 106.9 | -0.1 |
| Jul | 100.4 | -0.5 | 115.0 | 0.0 | 110.4 | -3.1 |
| Aug | 102.4 | 2.0 | 64.5 | 7.1 | 65.3 | 7.0 |
| Sep | 99.0 | -3.3 | 106.3 | -1.8 | 107.7 | -1.8 |
| Oct | 98.5 | -0.5 | 107.2 | -3.7 | 102.9 | -3.7 |
| Nov | 99.0 | 0.5 | 103.5 | -3.5 | 103.9 | -3.4 |
| Dec | 99.1 | 0.1 | 87.5 | -2.5 | 87.1 | -8.3 |
| 2012 | ||||||
| Jan | 96.5 | -2.6 | 88.9 | -4.9 | 89.2 | -2.0 |
| Feb | 96.0 | -0.5 | 96.2 | -7.3 | 98.8 | -3.6 |
| Mar | 96.2 | 0.2 | 104.8 | -6.9 | 105.3 | -6.9 |
| Apr | 95.0 | -1.2 | 93.3 | -9.2 | 89.5 | -11.9 |
| May | 95.5 | 0.5 | 103.9 | -5.8 | 105.2 | -5.8 |
| Jun | 94.0 | -1.6 | 99.0 | -7.0 | 99.4 | -7.0 |
| Jul | 94.4 | 0.4 | 108.4 | -5.7 | 107.4 | -2.7 |
| Aug | 94.9 | 0.5 | 61.3 | -5.0 | 62.1 | -4.9 |
| Sep | 94.0 | -0.9 | 101.4 | -4.6 | 96.5 | -10.4 |
| Oct | 93.1 | -1.0 | 101.0 | -5.8 | 103.2 | 0.3 |
| Nov | 92.1 | -1.1 | 95.4 | -7.8 | 95.8 | -7.8 |
| Dec | 92.0 | -0.1 | 81.0 | -7.4 | 78.1 | -10.3 |
| 2013 | ||||||
| Jan | 92.9 | 1.0 | 85.9 | -3.4 | 89.0 | -0.2 |
| Feb | 92.2 | -0.8 | 92.4 | -4.0 | 91.2 | -7.7 |
| Mar | 91.5 | -0.8 | 99.2 | -5.3 | 95.1 | -9.7 |
| Apr | 91.2 | -0.3 | 88.9 | -4.7 | 89.3 | -0.2 |
| May | 91.3 | 0.1 | 99.4 | -4.3 | 100.7 | -4.3 |
| Jun | 91.6 | 0.3 | 96.9 | -2.1 | 94.3 | -5.1 |
SA: Seasonally Adjusted; CA: Calendar Adjusted; M: Month; Q: Quarter; 4Q: Four Quarter
Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica
http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/97240
There is worsening trend of Italy’s industrial production in Chart VG-2 after Aug 2011, sharply deteriorating after Dec 2011 into 2012 with marginal recovery in May 2012 and further drops in Jun-Jul 2012 followed by marginal improvement in Aug and decline in Sep-Nov 2012 deeper in negative territory with marginal improvement in Jan 2013 followed by declining trend. There is marginal improvement in May-Jun 2013.
Chart VG-2, Italy, Industrial Production, 12-Month Percentage Changes
Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica
Exports and imports of Italy and monthly growth rates SA are in Table VG-3. There have been significant fluctuations. Seasonally adjusted exports increased 1.2 percent in Jun 2013 while imports increased 1.6 percent. The SA trade balance stabilized from surplus of €3190 million in May 2013 to surplus of €3091 million in Jun 2013.
Table VG-3, Italy, Exports, Imports and Trade Balance SA Million Euros and Month SA ∆%
| Exports | ∆% | Imports | ∆% | Balance | |
| Quarters | |||||
| IQ2011 | 92,733 | 4.8 | 102,080 | 3.3 | -9,347 |
| IIQ2011 | 95,159 | 2.6 | 102,570 | 0.5 | -7,411 |
| IIIQ2011 | 95,139 | 0.0 | 101,498 | -1.0 | -6,359 |
| IVQ2011 | 95,238 | 0.1 | 97,483 | -4.0 | -2,245 |
| 2012 | |||||
| IQ2012 | 96,221 | 1.0 | 96,539 | -1.0 | -318 |
| IIQ2012 | 97,653 | 1.5 | 95,694 | -0.9 | 1,959 |
| IIIQ2012 | 98,868 | 1.2 | 95,598 | -0.1 | 3,270 |
| IVQ2012 | 98,103 | -0.8 | 92,655 | -3.1 | 5,448 |
| 2013 | |||||
| IQ2013 | 97,742 | -0.4 | 91,047 | -1.7 | 6,695 |
| IIQ2013 | 98,138 | 0.4 | 89,137 | -2.1 | 9,001 |
| 2011 | |||||
| Jun | 31,332 | -3.1 | 33,309 | -4.6 | -1,977 |
| Jul | 31,608 | 0.9 | 33,954 | 1.9 | -2,346 |
| Aug | 31,643 | 0.1 | 34,282 | 1.0 | -2,639 |
| Sep | 31,888 | 0.8 | 33,262 | -3.0 | -1,374 |
| Oct | 31,046 | -2.6 | 32,604 | -2.0 | -1,558 |
| Nov | 31,515 | 1.5 | 32,936 | 1.0 | -1,421 |
| Dec | 32,677 | 3.7 | 31,943 | -3.0 | 734 |
| 2012 | |||||
| Jan | 31,790 | -2.7 | 32,204 | 0.8 | -414 |
| Feb | 32,044 | 0.8 | 32,516 | 1.0 | -472 |
| Mar | 32,387 | 1.1 | 31,819 | -2.1 | 568 |
| Apr | 32,419 | 0.1 | 32,407 | 1.8 | 12 |
| May | 32,974 | 1.7 | 32,662 | 0.8 | 312 |
| Jun | 32,260 | -2.2 | 30,625 | -6.2 | 1,635 |
| Jul | 32,643 | 1.2 | 31,732 | 3.6 | 911 |
| Aug | 33,492 | 2.6 | 32,674 | 3.0 | 818 |
| Sep | 32,733 | -2.3 | 31,192 | -4.5 | 1,541 |
| Oct | 32,685 | -0.1 | 31,252 | 0.2 | 1,433 |
| Nov | 32,776 | 0.3 | 30,462 | -2.5 | 2,314 |
| Dec | 32,642 | -0.4 | 30,941 | 1.6 | 1,701 |
| 2013 | |||||
| Jan | 33,106 | 1.4 | 30,958 | 0.1 | 2,148 |
| Feb | 32,125 | -3.0 | 30,050 | -2.9 | 2,075 |
| Mar | 32,511 | 1.2 | 30,039 | 0.0 | 2,472 |
| Apr | 32,423 | -0.3 | 29,703 | -1.1 | 2,720 |
| May | 32,669 | 0.8 | 29,479 | -0.8 | 3,190 |
| Jun | 33,046 | 1.2 | 29,955 | 1.6 | 3,091 |
Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica
http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/97574
Italy’s trade account not seasonally adjusted is in Table VG-4. Values are different because the data are original and not adjusted. Exports decreased 2.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2013 while imports decreased 5.6 percent with actual trade surplus of €3618 million. Twelve-month rates of growth picked up again in Aug 2011 with 15.2 percent for exports and 12.6 percent for imports. In Sep 2011, exports grew 10.2 percent relative to a year earlier while imports grew only 3.6 percent. In Oct 2011, exports grew 4.5 percent while imports fell 0.2 percent. In Nov 2011, exports grew 6.5 percent in 12 months while imports grew 0.5 percent. Exports continued to growth of 7.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Aug 2012 while imports fell 2.7 percent. The actual or not seasonally adjusted trade balance deficit fell from €2948 million in Aug 2011 to surplus of €1407 million in Dec 2011 but turned into deficit of €4574 million in Jan 2012. The deficit improved to lower deficit of €1195 million in Feb 2012 and surplus of €1792 million in Mar 2012, returning to deficit of €250 million in Apr and surplus of €867 million in May. In Jun 2012, the actual surplus was €2780 million and then €4733 million in Jul 2012, which was the highest in 2012 but deteriorated to actual deficit of €483 million in Aug 2012. Exports fell 20.9 percent and imports 22.1 percent during the global recession in 2009. Growth of exports of 12.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2012 while imports increased 1.0 percent increased the trade surplus to €2420 million. The trade surplus was €2105 million in Dec 2012 with growth of exports of minus 3.6 percent in 12 months while imports fell 6.0 percent. The trade balance deteriorated to deficit of €1614 million in Jan 2013 even with growth of exports of 8.7 percent in 12 months while imports fell 1.8 million. The trade balance returned to surplus of €1092 million in Feb 2013 with decline of exports by 2.8 percent and decrease of exports by 9.7 percent. The surplus widened to €3240 million in Mar 2013 with exports declining 6.0 percent and imports falling 10.6 percent. The surplus shrank to €2025 million in Apr 2013 with growth of exports of 4.5 and decline of imports of 3.0 percent. The surplus increased to €3926 million in May 2013 with declines of exports of 1.5 percent and of imports of 10.4 percent. The surplus declined to €3618 million in Jun 2013 with decline of exports of 2.7 percent in 12 months and of imports of 5.6 percent.
Table VG-4, Italy, Exports, Imports and Trade Balance NSA Million Euros and Year-on-Year ∆%
| Exports | ∆% | Imports | ∆% | Balance | |
| 2010 | 337,346 | 15.6 | 367,390 | 23.4 | -30,044 |
| 2011 | 375,904 | 11.4 | 401,428 | 9.3 | -25,524 |
| 2012 | 389,725 | 3.7 | 378,759 | -5.6 | 10,966 |
| 2010 | |||||
| IQ2010 | 76,310 | 7.5 | 85,238 | 12.1 | -8,928 |
| IIQ2010 | 85,783 | 17.6 | 92,633 | 27.1 | -6,850 |
| IIIQ2010 | 84,334 | 18.1 | 89,622 | 27.0 | -5,288 |
| IVQ2010 | 90,918 | 19.1 | 99,897 | 28.0 | -8,979 |
| 2011 | |||||
| IQ2011 | 90,128 | 18.1 | 103,760 | 21.7 | -13,632 |
| IIQ2011 | 97,274 | 13.4 | 104,303 | 12.6 | -7,029 |
| IIIQ2011 | 92,567 | 9.8 | 96,138 | 7.3 | -3,571 |
| IVQ2011 | 95,935 | 5.5 | 97,227 | -2.7 | -1,292 |
| 2012 | |||||
| I trim. | 95,285 | 5.7 | 99,264 | -4.3 | -3,979 |
| II trim. | 99,999 | 2.8 | 96,604 | -7.4 | 3,395 |
| III trim. | 94,601 | 2.2 | 89,941 | -6.4 | 4,660 |
| IV trim. | 99,841 | 4.1 | 92,951 | -4.4 | 6,890 |
| 2013 | |||||
| IQ2013 | 94,609 | -0.7 | 91,890 | -7.4 | 2,719 |
| IIQ2013 | 99,913 | -0.1 | 90,343 | -6.5 | 9,569 |
| 2011 | |||||
| Jun | 32,649 | 8.1 | 34,481 | 2.1 | -1,832 |
| Jul | 35,327 | 6.0 | 34,058 | 7.1 | 1,269 |
| Aug | 24,245 | 15.2 | 27,193 | 12.6 | -2,948 |
| Sep | 32,996 | 10.2 | 34,886 | 3.6 | -1,890 |
| Oct | 32,131 | 4.5 | 33,245 | -0.2 | -1,114 |
| Nov | 32,440 | 6.5 | 34,025 | 0.5 | -1,585 |
| Dec | 31,364 | 5.6 | 29,957 | -8.5 | 1,407 |
| 2012 | |||||
| Jan | 27,429 | 4.8 | 32,003 | -1.7 | -4,574 |
| Feb | 31,787 | 7.3 | 32,982 | 0.9 | -1,195 |
| Mar | 36,070 | 5.0 | 34,278 | -11.0 | 1,792 |
| Apr | 30,510 | -1.8 | 30,760 | -9.4 | -250 |
| May | 35,132 | 4.7 | 34,265 | -4.4 | 867 |
| Jun | 34,358 | 5.2 | 31,578 | -8.4 | 2,780 |
| Jul | 37,019 | 4.8 | 32,286 | -5.2 | 4,733 |
| Aug | 25,979 | 7.2 | 26,462 | -2.7 | -483 |
| Sep | 31,602 | -4.2 | 31,193 | -10.6 | 409 |
| Oct | 35,997 | 12.0 | 33,577 | 1.0 | 2,420 |
| Nov | 33,593 | 3.6 | 31,230 | -8.2 | 2,363 |
| Dec | 30,250 | -3.6 | 28,145 | -6.0 | 2,105 |
| 2013 | |||||
| Jan | 29,824 | 8.7 | 31,438 | -1.8 | -1,614 |
| Feb | 30,890 | -2.8 | 29,798 | -9.7 | 1,092 |
| Mar | 33,894 | -6.0 | 30,654 | -10.6 | 3,240 |
| Apr | 31,868 | 4.5 | 29,843 | -3.0 | 2,025 |
| May | 34,621 | -1.5 | 30,695 | -10.4 | 3,926 |
| Jun | 33,424 | -2.7 | 29,805 | -5.6 | 3,618 |
Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica
http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/97574
Growth rates of Italy’s trade and major products are in Table VG-5 for the period Jan-Jun 2013 relative to Jan-Jun 2012. Growth rates of cumulative imports relative to a year earlier are negative for energy with minus 17.4 percent and minus 11.3 percent for durable goods. The higher rate of growth of exports of minus 0.4 percent in Jan-Jun 2013/Jan-Jun 2012 relative to imports of minus 7.0 percent may reflect weak demand in Italy with GDP declining during eight consecutive quarters from IIIQ2011 through IIQ2013 together with softening commodity prices.
Table VG-5, Italy, Exports and Imports % Share of Products in Total and ∆%
| Exports | Exports | Imports | Imports | |
| Consumer | 29.3 | 6.2 | 25.6 | 0.1 |
| Durable | 5.8 | 0.8 | 2.9 | -11.3 |
| Non-Durable | 23.5 | 7.5 | 22.7 | 1.6 |
| Capital Goods | 31.6 | 0.7 | 19.5 | -7.7 |
| Inter- | 33.6 | -3.9 | 32.6 | -4.7 |
| Energy | 5.5 | -18.7 | 22.3 | -17.4 |
| Total ex Energy | 94.5 | 0.6 | 77.7 | -4.0 |
| Total | 100.0 | -0.4 | 100.0 | -7.0 |
Note: % Share for 2012 total trade.
Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/97574
Table VG-6 provides Italy’s trade balance by product categories in Jun 2013 and cumulative Jan-Jun 2013. Italy’s trade balance excluding energy generated surplus of €8285 million in Jun 2013 and €39,687 million cumulative in Jan-Jun 2013 but the energy trade balance created deficit of €4667 million in Jun 2013 and cumulative €27,399 million in Jan-Jun 2013. The overall surplus in Jun 2013 was €3618 million with cumulative surplus of €12,288 million in Jan-Jun 2013. Italy has significant competitiveness in various economic activities in contrast with some other countries with debt difficulties.
Table VG-6, Italy, Trade Balance by Product Categories, € Millions
| Jun 2013 | Cumulative Jan-Jun 2013 | |
| Consumer Goods | 2,017 | 10,262 |
| Durable | 1,155 | 6,323 |
| Nondurable | 862 | 3,939 |
| Capital Goods | 5,419 | 26,173 |
| Intermediate Goods | 849 | 3,252 |
| Energy | -4,667 | -27,399 |
| Total ex Energy | 8,285 | 39,687 |
| Total | 3,618 | 12,288 |
Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/97574
Professors Ricardo Caballero and Francesco Giavazzi (2012Jan15) find that the resolution of the European sovereign crisis with survival of the euro area would require success in the restructuring of Italy. Growth of the Italian economy would ensure that success. A critical problem is that the common euro currency prevents Italy from devaluing the exchange rate to parity or the exchange rate that would permit export growth to promote internal economic activity, which could generate fiscal revenues for primary fiscal surpluses that ensure creditworthiness. Fiscal consolidation and restructuring are important but of long-term gestation. Immediate growth of the Italian economy would consolidate the resolution of the sovereign debt crisis. Caballero and Giavazzi (2012Jan15) argue that 55 percent of the exports of Italy are to countries outside the euro area such that devaluation of 15 percent would be effective in increasing export revenue. Newly available data in Table VG-7 providing Italy’s trade with regions and countries supports the argument of Caballero and Giavazzi (2012Jan15). Italy’s exports to the European Monetary Union (EMU), or euro area, are only 40.5 percent of the total in Jan-Jun 2013. Exports to the non-European Union area with share of 46.3 percent in Italy’s total exports are growing at 3.0 percent in Jan-Jun 2013 relative to Jan-Jun 2012 while those to EMU are growing at minus 4.1 percent.
Table VG-7, Italy, Exports and Imports by Regions and Countries, % Share and 12-Month ∆%
| Jun 2013 | Exports | ∆% Jan-Jun 2013/ Jan-Jun 2012 | Imports | ∆% Jan-Jun 2013/ Jan-Jun 2012 |
| EU | 53.7 | -3.1 | 52.9 | -3.0 |
| EMU 17 | 40.5 | -4.1 | 42.7 | -3.1 |
| France | 11.1 | -3.1 | 8.3 | -6.2 |
| Germany | 12.5 | -4.5 | 14.6 | -7.4 |
| Spain | 4.7 | -8.0 | 4.4 | -3.0 |
| UK | 4.9 | 1.0 | 2.5 | -1.4 |
| Non EU | 46.3 | 3.0 | 47.1 | -11.3 |
| Europe non EU | 13.9 | 0.0 | 11.3 | 6.9 |
| USA | 6.8 | -2.3 | 3.3 | -18.6 |
| China | 2.3 | 6.7 | 6.5 | -10.4 |
| OPEC | 5.7 | 10.5 | 10.8 | -27.4 |
| Total | 100.0 | -0.4 | 100.0 | -7.0 |
Notes: EU: European Union; EMU: European Monetary Union (euro zone)
Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/97574
Table VG-8 provides Italy’s trade balance by regions and countries. Italy had trade deficit of €356 million with the 17 countries of the euro zone (EMU 17) in Jun 2013 and cumulative deficit of €2393 million in Jan-Jun 2013. Depreciation to parity could permit greater competitiveness in improving the trade surplus of 3752 million in Jan-Jun 2013 with Europe non European Union, the trade surplus of €7593 million with the US and trade surplus with non-European Union of €8020 million in Jan-Jun 2013. There is significant rigidity in the trade deficits in Jan-Jun 2013 of €6726 million with China and €3998 million with members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Higher exports could drive economic growth in the economy of Italy that would permit less onerous adjustment of the country’s fiscal imbalances, raising the country’s credit rating.
Table VG-8, Italy, Trade Balance by Regions and Countries, Millions of Euro
| Regions and Countries | Trade Balance Jun 2013 Millions of Euro | Trade Balance Cumulative Jan-Jun 2013 Millions of Euro |
| EU | 1,124 | 4,268 |
| EMU 17 | -356 | -2,393 |
| France | 1,080 | 6,207 |
| Germany | -391 | -2,437 |
| Spain | 22 | 391 |
| UK | 1,070 | 4,671 |
| Non EU | 2,494 | 8,020 |
| Europe non EU | 1,066 | 3,752 |
| USA | 1,333 | 7,593 |
| China | -906 | -6,726 |
| OPEC | -315 | -3,998 |
| Total | 3,618 | 12,288 |
Notes: EU: European Union; EMU: European Monetary Union (euro zone)
Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/97574
VH United Kingdom. Annual data in Table VH-UK show the strong impact of the global recession in the UK with decline of GDP of 5.2 percent in 2009 after dropping 0.8 percent in 2008. Recovery of 1.7 percent in 2010 is relatively low compared to annual growth rates in 2007 and earlier years. Growth was only 1.1 percent in 2011 and 0.2 percent in 2012.
Table VH-UK, UK, Gross Domestic Product, ∆%
| ∆% on Prior Year | |
| 1998 | 3.6 |
| 1999 | 2.9 |
| 2000 | 4.4 |
| 2001 | 2.2 |
| 2002 | 2.3 |
| 2003 | 3.9 |
| 2004 | 3.2 |
| 2005 | 3.2 |
| 2006 | 2.8 |
| 2007 | 3.4 |
| 2008 | -0.8 |
| 2009 | -5.2 |
| 2010 | 1.7 |
| 2011 | 1.1 |
| 2012 | 0.2 |
Source: UK Office for National Statistics http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/quarterly-national-accounts/q1-2013/index.html
The Business Activity Index of the Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI® increased from 56.9 in Jun to 60.2 in Jul, indicating increase in activity in every month since the beginning of 2013 and at the fastest rate since Dec 2006 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/77ad41eb34aa425b94ca829ef60beebc). Paul Smith, Senior Economist at Markit, finds continuing improvement in the UK’s economy with possible strength in IIIQ2013 GDP (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/77ad41eb34aa425b94ca829ef60beebc). The Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®) increased from 52.9 in Jun to 54.6 in Jul, which is the highest reading in 28 months (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8b3b3e48988142f1a9c4a6c6491e6f4d). Rob Dobson, Senior Economist at Markit that compiles the Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI®, finds manufacturing improving at the highest rates since the beginning of 2011 (http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8b3b3e48988142f1a9c4a6c6491e6f4d). Table UK provides the economic indicators for the United Kingdom.
Table UK, UK Economic Indicators
| CPI | Jun month ∆%: -0.2 |
| Output/Input Prices | Output Prices: Jun 12-month NSA ∆%: 2.0; excluding food, petroleum ∆%: 1.0 |
| GDP Growth | IIQ2013 prior quarter ∆% 0.6; year earlier same quarter ∆%: 1.4 |
| Industrial Production | Jun 2013/Jun 2012 ∆%: Production Industries 1.2; Manufacturing 2.0 |
| Retail Sales | Jun month ∆%: 0.2 |
| Labor Market | Mar-May Unemployment Rate: 7.8%; Claimant Count 4.4%; Earnings Growth 1.7% |
| Trade Balance | Balance Jun minus ₤1548 million |
Links to blog comments in Table UK:
7/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/duration-dumping-steepening-yield-curve.html
7/21/2013 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/tapering-quantitative-easing-policy-and.html
5/26/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/united-states-commercial-banks-assets.html
4/28/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states_28.html
03/31/13 http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/mediocre-and-decelerating-united-states.html
The UK Office for National Statistics provides the output of production industries with revisions. Table VH-1 incorporates the revisions released in Dec, 2011(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/iop/index-of-production/november-2012/index.html) and the latest available data for Jun 2013. Manufacturing accounts for 68.4 percent of the production industries of the UK and increased 2.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2013. Capital goods industries increased 3.5 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2013, fell 1.0 percent in the 12 months ending in May 2013, grew 3.7 percent in the 12 months ending in Apr 2013 and had been growing at very high rates during the current cyclical recovery but falling from the unsustainable high of 12.0 percent in the 12 months ending in Feb 2011. Mining and quarrying increased 1.2 percent in the 12 months ending in Jun 2013. The 12-month rates of growth of the entire index of production industries registered declines for all 12 months from Mar 2011 to May 2013. With exception of most months for capital goods and Sep to Dec 2012 for consumer durables, 12-month percentage changes of all segments are mostly negative from Jan to Dec 2012. Energy and mining have been drivers of decline. The upper part of Table VH-1 provides rates of change of yearly values. Manufacturing output fell 10.2 percent in 2009 after falling 2.8 percent in 2008 but grew at 4.2 percent in the initial phase of the recovery in 2010 and 1.8 percent in 2011 but fell 1.7 percent in 2012.
Table VH-1, UK, Output of the Production Industries, Chained Volume Indices of Gross Value Added, 12-Month ∆%
| PROD IND | MNG | MFG | CON DUR | CON NDUR | CAP | ENGY | |
| 2008 | -2.9 | -6.1 | -2.8 | -5.5 | -1.7 | -3.3 | -2.9 |
| 2009 | -9.5 | -9.7 | -10.2 | -6.8 | -0.8 | -12.1 | -6.5 |
| 2010 | 2.8 | -2.4 | 4.2 | -4.1 | -0.3 | 10.4 | -2.5 |
| 2011 | -1.2 | -14.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | -0.7 | 6.7 | -10.7 |
| 2012 | -2.4 | -9.6 | -1.7 | -2.9 | -3.8 | 1.6 | -7.4 |
| 2011 | PROD IND | MNG | MFG | CON DUR | CON NDUR | CAP | ENGY |
| Apr | -2.2 | -16.2 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 4.9 | -11.2 |
| May | -1.4 | -21.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 6.0 | -13.5 |
| Jun | -0.5 | -15.4 | 2.3 | 7.4 | 0.3 | 6.8 | -10.1 |
| Jul | -0.9 | -15.2 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 5.2 | -9.9 |
| Aug | -2.1 | -16.5 | 0.2 | -1.5 | -1.0 | 4.3 | -10.5 |
| Sep | -2.3 | -18.6 | 0.7 | -2.0 | -2.7 | 7.4 | -12.1 |
| Oct | -3.0 | -14.2 | -1.0 | -1.1 | -3.9 | 4.5 | -11.9 |
| Nov | -3.4 | -14.0 | -1.0 | -0.3 | -2.7 | 5.6 | -12.6 |
| Dec | -2.5 | -14.1 | 0.9 | -3.7 | -1.7 | 7.1 | -15.4 |
| 2012 | |||||||
| Jan | -3.5 | -19.5 | 0.4 | -5.2 | 0.5 | 4.7 | -15.3 |
| Feb | -1.6 | -6.8 | -1.6 | -7.0 | -0.6 | -1.2 | -4.3 |
| Mar | -2.1 | -6.2 | -0.9 | -6.6 | -1.9 | 1.3 | -8.1 |
| Apr | -1.5 | -12.1 | -1.2 | -2.5 | -5.0 | 2.5 | -6.8 |
| May | -1.5 | -6.7 | -1.2 | -3.9 | -5.7 | 2.6 | -4.7 |
| Jun | -4.2 | -4.2 | -4.2 | -10.8 | -6.3 | - | -5.5 |
| Jul | -0.7 | -0.4 | -0.8 | -2.8 | -4.9 | 4.7 | -3.5 |
| Aug | -0.8 | 2.2 | -1.4 | -2.3 | -4.2 | 2.2 | -2.0 |
| Sep | -3.7 | -16.5 | -1.6 | 2.1 | -1.8 | 0.3 | -12.0 |
| Oct | -3.9 | -20.9 | -2.4 | 4.7 | -4.6 | 0.5 | -11.9 |
| Nov | -3.0 | -13.2 | -2.6 | 0.9 | -5.5 | 0.2 | -7.9 |
| Dec | -3.0 | -8.6 | -2.5 | 0.7 | -6.1 | 1.3 | -5.7 |
| 2013 | |||||||
| Jan | -3.3 | -7.2 | -3.9 | -1.2 | -6.1 | 0.6 | -4.5 |
| Feb | -2.4 | -8.3 | -2.1 | -3.9 | -5.4 | 3.8 | -8.2 |
| Mar | -2.0 | -12.3 | -1.7 | 0.4 | -4.7 | 2.5 | -4.3 |
| Apr | -1.4 | -5.8 | -0.9 | -2.2 | 0.1 | 3.5 | -4.9 |
| May | -2.3 | -2.8 | -2.9 | -4.2 | -0.6 | -1.0 | -4.7 |
| Jun | 1.2 | -4.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 3.5 | -6.7 |
Notes: PROD IND: Production Industries; MNG: Mining; MFG: Manufacturing; ENGY: Energy; CON DUR: Consumer Durables; CONS NDUR: Consumer Nondurables; CAP: Capital Goods
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/iop/index-of-production/june-2013/index.html
Percentage changes in the production industries and major components in a month relative to the prior month are shown in Table VH-2. All segments decreased in Jun 2013 with exception of energy. There is significant fluctuation in monthly percentage changes. Most segments fell in May and Apr 2013. Capital goods industries fell 1.8 percent in Jan 2013 and increased 1.0 percent in Mar and 3.2 percent in Jun while manufacturing fell 1.4 percent in Jan but increased 0.9 percent in Mar and 1.9 percent in Jun. Performance was stronger with growth of manufacturing of 1.0 percent and capital goods of 1.8 percent in Dec 2012. Fluctuations of monthly production are quite wide.
Table VH-2, UK, Output of the Production Industries, Chained Volume Indices of Gross Value Added, Latest Month on Previous Month ∆%
| 2011 | PROD IND | MNG | MFG | CON DUR | CON NDUR | CAP | ENGY |
| Apr | -1.3 | 0.9 | -0.7 | -2.5 | 0.3 | -2.4 | -1.0 |
| May | 1.0 | -5.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 2.2 | -1.5 |
| Jun | 0.4 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 4.8 | -0.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Jul | -0.6 | 1.1 | -0.5 | -4.5 | 0.1 | -1.1 | - |
| Aug | -0.5 | -0.1 | -0.7 | -2.5 | -0.8 | -0.3 | -0.4 |
| Sep | 0.1 | -1.1 | 0.4 | -3.0 | -1.8 | 2.5 | -1.0 |
| Oct | -0.6 | 1.9 | -0.8 | -0.5 | -0.2 | -1.0 | -0.7 |
| Nov | -0.2 | -0.9 | 0.1 | 0.9 | -0.1 | 1.3 | -0.8 |
| Dec | 0.7 | -2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | -1.6 |
| 2012 | |||||||
| Jan | -0.7 | -2.0 | - | 0.9 | 0.5 | -1.2 | -1.4 |
| Feb | -0.1 | 3.1 | -1.5 | -1.2 | -1.0 | -2.9 | 4.6 |
| Mar | -0.4 | -0.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | -0.3 | 2.4 | -4.7 |
| Apr | -0.7 | -5.5 | -1.0 | 1.8 | -2.8 | -1.3 | 0.4 |
| May | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.3 | -0.8 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 |
| Jun | -2.4 | 2.4 | -2.9 | -2.7 | -1.3 | -1.4 | -0.4 |
| Jul | 3.1 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 3.6 | 2.1 |
| Aug | -0.6 | 2.6 | -1.3 | -2.0 | -0.1 | -2.6 | 1.2 |
| Sep | -2.8 | -19.2 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | -11.1 |
| Oct | -0.8 | -3.4 | -1.6 | 2.0 | -3.0 | -0.7 | -0.7 |
| Nov | 0.7 | 8.7 | -0.1 | -2.8 | -1.0 | 0.9 | 3.8 |
| Dec | 0.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 2013 | |||||||
| Jan | -1.0 | -0.5 | -1.4 | -1.0 | 0.5 | -1.8 | -0.2 |
| Feb | 0.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | -4.0 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Mar | - | -5.0 | 0.9 | 4.6 | 0.5 | 1.0 | -0.7 |
| Apr | - | 1.4 | -0.2 | -0.8 | 2.1 | -0.2 | -0.2 |
| May | - | 4.0 | -0.7 | -2.8 | -0.5 | -2.2 | 0.8 |
| Jun | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 3.2 | -2.5 |
Notes: PROD IND: Production Industries; MNG: Mining; MFG: Manufacturing; ENGY: Energy; CON DUR: Consumer Durables; CONS NDUR: Consumer Nondurables; CAP: Capital Goods
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/iop/index-of-production/june-2013/index.html
Weights of components of the production index and contributions by components to the monthly and 12-month percentage changes of volume are provided by the UK Office for National Statistics and shown in Table VH-3. The 12-month rate of output of the production industries of minus 1.2 percent was driven by negative contribution of 0.56 percentage points by mining and quarrying with the subcomponent of oil and gas deducting 1.27 percentage points. The second highest source of increase is 1.40 percentage points of manufacturing. The contribution of manufacturing is strong because of its share of 68.4 percent in the production index with growth of 2.0 percent in 12 months. The contributions do not add exactly because of rounding. Manufacturing increased 1.9 percent in Jun 2013, adding 1.9 percentage points. Mining increased 0.7 percent in Jun 2013, adding 0.08 percentage points. Decrease of electricity by 5.8 percent in Jun deducted 0.50 percentage points.
Table VH-3, UK, Weights of Components, Volume 12-Month and Month ∆% and Percentage Point Contributions of Production Industries by Components
| Weight % | Volume 12-Month ∆% Ending in Jun 2013 | % Point | Volume | % Point | |
| PROD | 100.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| MNG | 15.1 | -4.4 | -0.56 | 0.7 | 0.08 |
| MNG 06 | 12.4 | -13.3 | -1.27 | -1.1 | -0.09 |
| MFG | 68.4 | 2.0 | 1.40 | 1.9 | 1.36 |
| ELEC | 8.6 | -3.3 | -0.28 | -5.8 | -0.50 |
| WATER | 7.9 | 7.8 | 0.66 | 2.3 | 0.21 |
Notes: Cont: Contribution; PROD IND: Index of Production; MNG: Mining and Quarrying (of which 14.4 percent of the total weight in oil and gas extraction); MNG 06: Subdivision of Mining including oil and gas extraction; MFG: Manufacturing; ELEC: Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning; WATER & SEW: water supply, sewerage and waste management
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/iop/index-of-production/june-2013/index.html
Table VH-4 provides the breakdown of manufacturing 12-month and monthly growth and percentage contributions.
Table VH-4, UK, Growth Rates of Manufacturing and Percentage Point Contributions to the Index of Production
| Sector | Summary Description | % of production | Quarter on previous quarter growth (%) | Contribution to production (% points) |
| IoP | Index of Production | 100.0 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| B | Total Mining & Quarrying | 15.1 | 1.4 | 0.17 |
| C | Total Manufacturing | 68.4 | 0.7 | 0.48 |
| CA | Food, beverages and tobacco | 10.9 | -0.5 | -0.06 |
| CB | Textiles and leather products | 2.1 | -1.2 | -0.03 |
| CC | Wood, paper and printing | 5.5 | 0.7 | 0.04 |
| CD | Coke and petroleum | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.01 |
| CE | Chemical Products | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.09 |
| CF | Pharmaceutical Products | 6.4 | 8.3 | 0.43 |
| CG | Rubber and plastic products | 5.7 | 0.9 | 0.05 |
| CH | Metal products | 7.7 | -1.3 | -0.11 |
| CI | Computer, electronic & optical | 4.3 | -1.3 | -0.06 |
| CJ | Electrical equipment | 2.1 | 4.8 | 0.11 |
| CK | Machinery and equipment | 5.0 | -1.0 | -0.05 |
| CL | Transport equipment | 7.7 | 1.7 | 0.17 |
| CM | Other manufacturing & repair | 5.4 | -1.8 | -0.11 |
| D | Total Electricity & Gas | 8.6 | -2.4 | -0.21 |
| E | Total Water | 7.9 | 2.3 | 0.20 |
| Sector | Summary Description | % of production | Month on same month a year ago growth (%) | Contribution to production (% points) |
| IoP | Index of Production | 100.0 | -2.3 | -2.3 |
| B | Total Mining & Quarrying | 15.1 | -3.5 | -0.42 |
| C | Total Manufacturing | 68.4 | -2.9 | -2.08 |
| CA | Food, beverages and tobacco | 10.9 | -3.7 | -0.43 |
| CB | Textiles and leather products | 2.1 | -8.0 | -0.18 |
| CC | Wood, paper and printing | 5.5 | 1.0 | 0.05 |
| CD | Coke and petroleum | 1.7 | -9.1 | -0.15 |
| CE | Chemical Products | 4.2 | -3.3 | -0.14 |
| CF | Pharmaceutical Products | 6.4 | 7.3 | 0.36 |
| CG | Rubber and plastic products | 5.7 | -9.2 | -0.54 |
| CH | Metal products | 7.7 | -6.1 | -0.51 |
| CI | Computer, electronic & optical | 4.3 | -3.4 | -0.15 |
| CJ | Electrical equipment | 2.1 | -5.0 | -0.12 |
| CK | Machinery and equipment | 5.0 | -13.5 | -0.77 |
| CL | Transport equipment | 7.7 | 2.8 | 0.26 |
| CM | Other manufacturing & repair | 5.4 | 4.7 | 0.25 |
| D | Total Electricity & Gas | 8.6 | -0.8 | -0.07 |
| E | Total Water | 7.9 | 2.6 | 0.22 |
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/iop/index-of-production/june-2013/index.html
The UK’s trade account is shown in Table VH-5. In Jun 2013, the UK ran a deficit in trade of goods and services (total trade) of ₤1548 million. The deficit in trade of goods was ₤8082 million and ₤7228 million in goods excluding oil. A surplus in services of ₤6534 million contributed to the smaller overall deficit in goods and services (-₤8082 million plus ₤6534 million equal to -₤1548 million). Services have contributed to lower trade account deficits and softened the impact of the global recession on the UK economy. Exports of goods and services increased 3.2 percent in Jun 2013 and increased 4.3 percent in the quarter Apr-Jun 2013 relative to the same quarter a year earlier with imports increasing 0.6 percent in Jun and decreasing 0.9 percent in Apr-Jun 2013 relative to the same quarter a year earlier. Excluding oil, UK exports of goods increased 6.8 percent in Jun 2013 and increased 7.8 percent in Apr-Jun 2013 relative to a year earlier while imports increased 4.0 percent in Jun and increased 2.5 percent in Apr-Jun 2013 relative to a year earlier. The great advantage of the UK similar to the US is the substantial surplus in services. Services exports increased 0.6 percent in Jun and increased 1.2 percent in Apr-Jun 2013 relative to a year earlier and imports decreased 3.8 percent in Jun and decreased 1.3 percent in Apr-Jun 2013 relative to a year earlier.
Table VH-5, Value of UK Trade in Goods and Services, Balance of Payments Basis, ₤ Million and ∆%
| ₤ Million SA Jun 2013 | Month ∆% | Apr-Jun 2013 ∆% Apr-Jun 2012 | |
| Total Trade | |||
| Exports | 43,244 | 3.2 | 4.3 |
| Imports | 44,792 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| Balance | -1,548 | ||
| Trade in Goods | |||
| Exports | 26,941 | 4.9 | 6.4 |
| Imports | 35,023 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Balance | -8,082 | ||
| Trade in Goods Excluding Oil | |||
| Exports | 23,840 | 6.8 | 7.8 |
| Imports | 31,068 | 4.0 | 2.5 |
| Balance | -7,228 | ||
| Trade in Services | |||
| Exports | 16,303 | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Imports | 9,769 | -3.8 | -1.3 |
| Balance | 6,534 |
Source: UK Office for National Statistics
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/uktrade/uk-trade/june-2013/index.html
© Carlos M. Pelaez, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013
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