CMP Associates Regulation Blog: Twenty-One Million Unemployed or Underemployed in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth Underperforming below Trend Worldwide, Job Creation, Cyclically Stagnating Real Wages, Cyclically Stagnating Real Disposable Income, Financial Repression, United States International Trade, World Cyclical Slow Growth and Global Recession Risk: Part II

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Twenty-One Million Unemployed or Underemployed in the Lost Economic Cycle of the Global Recession with Economic Growth Underperforming below Trend Worldwide, Job Creation, Cyclically Stagnating Real Wages, Cyclically Stagnating Real Disposable Income, Financial Repression, United States International Trade, World Cyclical Slow Growth and Global Recession Risk

I Twenty-One Million Unemployed or Underemployed

IA1 Summary of the Employment Situation

IA2 Number of People in Job Stress

IA3 Long-term and Cyclical Comparison of Employment

IA4 Job Creation

IB Stagnating Real Wages

II Stagnating Real Disposable Income and Consumption Expenditures

IB1 Stagnating Real Disposable Income and Consumption Expenditures

IB2 Financial Repression

IIB United States International Trade

III World Financial Turbulence

IIIA Financial Risks

IIIE Appendix Euro Zone Survival Risk

IIIF Appendix on Sovereign Bond Valuation

IV Global Inflation

V World Economic Slowdown

VA United States

VB Japan

VC China

VD Euro Area

VE Germany

VF France

VG Italy

VH United Kingdom

VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets

VII Economic Indicators

VIII Interest Rates

IX Conclusion

References

Appendixes

Appendix I The Great Inflation

IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies

IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact

IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort

IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis

II IB Stagnating Real Disposable Income and Consumption Expenditures. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) provides important revisions and enhancements of data on personal income and outlays since 1929 (http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). There are waves of changes in personal income and expenditures in Table IB-1 that correspond somewhat to inflation waves observed worldwide (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/11/dollar-devaluation-and-decline-of.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/world-inflation-waves-long-term-and.html) because of the influence through price indexes. There are wide fluctuations in Nov and Dec 2012 by the rush to realize income of all forms in anticipation of tax increases beginning in Jan 2013. There is major distortion in Jan 2013 because of higher contributions in payrolls to government social insurance that caused sharp reduction in personal income and disposable personal income. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) explains as follows (page 3 http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/2013/pdf/pi0313.pdf):

“The February and January [2013] changes in disposable personal income (DPI) mainly reflected the effect of special factors in January, such as the expiration of the “payroll tax holiday” and the acceleration of bonuses and personal dividends to November and to December [2012] in anticipation of changes in individual tax rates.”

The BEA provides the annual update of the national income and product account (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/data-dependent-monetary-policy-with_30.html): “Annual Update of the National Income and Product Accounts

The estimates released today reflect the results of the annual update of the national income and

product accounts (NIPAs) in conjunction with preliminary estimates for June 2017. The update covers the most recent 3 years and the first 5 months of 2017. For more information, see information on the “2017 Annual Update” on BEA’s website. Additionally, the August Survey of Current Business will contain an article that describes the results in detail.”

In the first wave in Jan-Apr 2011 with relaxed risk aversion, nominal personal income (NPI) increased at the annual equivalent rate of 7.7 percent, nominal disposable personal income (NDPI) at 5.2 percent and nominal personal consumption expenditures (NPCE) at 5.9 percent. Real disposable income (RDPI) increased at the annual equivalent rate of 1.2 percent and real personal consumption expenditures (RPCE) rose at annual equivalent 1.5 percent. In the second wave in May-Aug 2011 under risk aversion, NPI rose at annual equivalent 4.9 percent, NPDI at 4.9 percent and NPCE at 3.7 percent. RDPI increased at 1.8 percent annual equivalent and RPCE at 0.9 percent annual equivalent. With mixed shocks of risk aversion in the third wave from Sep to Dec 2011, NPI rose at 2.4 percent annual equivalent, NDPI at 2.4 percent and NPCE at 2.1 percent. RDPI increased at 1.5 percent annual equivalent and RPCE at 1.5 percent annual equivalent. In the fourth wave from Jan to Mar 2012, NPI increased at 8.3 percent annual equivalent, NDPI at 9.6 percent and NPCE at 4.3 percent. Real disposable income (RDPI) is more dynamic in the revisions, growing at 4.9 percent annual equivalent and RPCE at 2.1 percent. The policy of repressing savings with zero interest rates stimulated growth of nominal consumption (NPCE) at the annual equivalent rate of 4.3 percent and real consumption (RPCE) at 2.1 percent. In the fifth wave in Apr-Jul 2012, NPI increased at annual equivalent 1.2 percent, NDPI at 1.2 percent and RDPI at 0.9 percent. Financial repression failed to stimulate consumption with NPCE growing at 1.2 percent annual equivalent and RPCE at 0.9 percent. In the sixth wave in Aug-Oct 2012, in another wave of carry trades into commodity futures, NPI increased at 8.3 percent annual equivalent and NDPI increased at 7.9 percent while real disposable income (RDPI) increased at 3.7 percent annual equivalent. NPCE increased at 4.1 percent and RPCE changed at 0.0 percent. Data for Nov-Dec 2012 have illusory increases: “Personal income in November and December was boosted by accelerated and special dividend payments to persons and by accelerated bonus payments and other irregular pay in private wages and salaries in anticipation of changes in individual income tax rates. Personal income in December was also boosted by lump-sum social security benefit payments” (page 2 at http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/2013/pdf/pi1212.pdf). In the seventh wave, anticipations of tax increases in Jan 2013 caused exceptional income gains that increased personal income to annual equivalent 25.3 percent in Nov-Dec 2012, nominal disposable income at 25.3 percent and real disposable personal income at 26.0 percent with likely effects on nominal personal consumption that increased at 2.4 percent and real personal consumption at 3.0 percent with subdued prices. The numbers in parentheses show that without the exceptional effects NDPI (nominal disposable personal income) increased at 5.5 percent and RDPI (real disposable personal income) at 8.7 percent. In the eighth wave, nominal personal income fell 5.2 percent in Jan 2013 or at the annual equivalent rate of decline of 47.3 percent; nominal disposable personal income fell 6.1 percent or at the annual equivalent rate of decline of 53.0 percent; real disposable income fell 6.2 percent or at the annual rate of decline of 53.6 percent; nominal personal consumption expenditures increased 0.3 percent or at the annual equivalent rate of 3.7 percent; and real personal consumption expenditures increased 0.2 percent or at the annual equivalent rate of 2.4 percent. The savings rate fell significantly from 11.0 percent in Dec 2012 to 4.9 percent in Jan 2013. The Bureau of Economic Analysis explains as follows (http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/2013/pdf/pi0113.pdf 3):

“Contributions for government social insurance -- a subtraction in calculating personal income -- increased $126.7 billion in January, compared with an increase of $6.3 billion in December. The

Further explanation is provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/2013/pdf/pi0213.pdf 2-3):

“Contributions for government social insurance -- a subtraction in calculating personal income --increased $6.4 billion in February, compared with an increase of $126.8 billion in January. The

January estimate reflected increases in both employer and employee contributions for government social insurance. The January estimate of employee contributions for government social insurance reflected the expiration of the “payroll tax holiday,” that increased the social security contribution rate for employees and self-employed workers by 2.0 percentage points, or $114.1 billion at an annual rate. For additional information, see FAQ on “How did the expiration of the payroll tax holiday affect personal income for January 2013?” at www.bea.gov. The January estimate of employee contributions for government social insurance also reflected an increase in the monthly premiums paid by participants in the supplementary medical insurance program, in the hospital insurance provisions of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, and in the social security taxable wage base; together, these changes added $12.9 billion to January. Employer contributions were boosted $5.9 billion in January, which reflected increases in the social security taxable wage base (from $110,100 to $113,700), in the tax rates paid by employers to state unemployment insurance, and in employer contributions for the federal unemployment tax and for pension guaranty. The total contribution of special factors to the January change in contributions for government social insurance was $132.9 billion. The January change in disposable personal income (DPI) mainly reflected the effect of special factors, such as the expiration of the “payroll tax holiday” and the acceleration of bonuses and personal dividends to December in anticipation of changes in individual tax rates. Excluding these special factors and others, which are discussed more fully below, DPI increased $46.8 billion in February, or 0.4 percent, after increasing $15.8 billion, or 0.1 percent, in January.”

The increase was provided in the “fiscal cliff” law H.R. 8 American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 (http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/BILLS-112hr8eas/pdf/BILLS-112hr8eas.pdf). In the ninth wave in Feb-Mar 2013, nominal personal income increased at 3.0 percent and nominal disposable income at 2.4 percent annual equivalent, while real disposable income increased at 0.6 percent annual equivalent. Nominal personal consumption expenditures grew at 1.8 percent annual equivalent and real personal consumption expenditures at 0.0 percent annual equivalent. The savings rate collapsed from 7.8 percent in Oct 2012, 8.8 percent in Nov 2012 and 11.0 percent in Dec 2012 to 4.9 percent in Jan 2013, 4.7 percent in Feb 2013 and 4.8 percent in Mar 2013. In the tenth wave from Apr to Sep 2013, personal income grew at 4.1 percent annual equivalent, nominal disposable income increased at annual equivalent 3.7 percent and nominal personal consumption expenditures at 2.8 percent. Real disposable income grew at 2.6 percent annual equivalent and real personal consumption expenditures at 2.0 percent. In the eleventh wave, nominal personal income fell at 1.2 percent annual equivalent in Oct 2013, nominal disposable income at 1.2 percent and real disposable income at 3.5 percent. Nominal personal consumption expenditures increased at 4.9 percent annual equivalent and real personal consumption expenditures at 2.4 percent. In the twelfth wave, nominal personal income increased at 6.2 percent annual equivalent in Nov 2013, nominal disposable income at 4.9 percent and nominal personal consumption expenditures at 8.7 percent. Real disposable income increased at annual equivalent 3.7 percent and real personal consumption expenditures at 6.2 percent. In the thirteenth wave, nominal personal income increased at 4.9 percent annual equivalent in Dec 2013 and nominal disposable income at 3.7 percent while real disposable income increased at 1.2 percent annual equivalent. Nominal personal consumption expenditures increased at 2.4 percent annual equivalent and 0.0 percent for real personal consumption expenditures. In the fourteenth wave, nominal personal income increased at 8.3 percent annual equivalent in Jan-Mar 2014, nominal disposable income at 8.3 percent and nominal consumption expenditures at 5.3 percent. Real disposable personal income increased at 6.2 percent and real personal consumption expenditures at 3.2 percent. In the fifteenth wave, nominal personal income increased at 5.9 percent in annual equivalent in Apr-Aug 2014 and nominal disposable income at 5.9 percent. Real disposable income increased at 4.7 percent in annual equivalent in Apr-Aug 2014. Nominal personal consumption increased at 4.9 percent annual equivalent in Apr-Aug 2014 and real personal consumption expenditures increased at 3.9 percent. In the sixteenth wave, nominal personal income increased at 5.5 percent annual equivalent in Sep-Dec 2014, nominal disposable income at 5.2 percent and nominal personal consumption at 3.3 percent. Real disposable income increased at 6.2 percent in Sep-Dec 2014 and real personal consumption expenditure at 4.0 percent. In the seventeenth wave, nominal personal income increased at 4.3 percent annual equivalent in Jan-Feb 2015 and nominal disposable income increased at 2.4 percent while nominal personal consumption expenditures increased at 1.2 percent. Real disposable income increased at 4.3 percent and real personal consumption expenditures at 3.7 percent. In the eighteenth wave, nominal personal income (NPI) increased at 5.3 percent and nominal disposable personal income (NDPI) increased at 5.3 percent annual equivalent in Mar-Jun 2015. Real disposable income (RDPI) increased at 3.7 percent. Nominal consumption expenditures (NPCE) increased at 6.2 percent and real personal consumption expenditures (RPCE) increased at 4.1 percent. In the nineteenth wave, nominal personal income (NPI) increased at 2.8 percent in Jun-Aug 2015 and nominal disposable personal income (NDPI) at 2.8 percent. Real disposable income (RDPI) increased at 1.6 percent, nominal personal consumption expenditures (NPCE) at 3.7 percent and real personal consumption expenditures (RPCE) at 2.4 percent. In the twentieth wave, nominal personal income (NPI) increased at 3.0 percent annual equivalent in Sep-Dec 2015, nominal disposable personal income (NDPI) at 2.8 percent and nominal personal consumption expenditures (NPCE) at 4.5 percent. Real disposable personal income grew at 2.4 percent annual equivalent and real personal consumption expenditures at 3.0 percent. In the twenty-first wave, nominal personal income fell at 2.4 percent annual equivalent in Jan-Feb 2016. Nominal disposable personal income changed at 0.0 percent and nominal personal consumption expenditures increased at 2.4 percent. Real disposable personal income decreased at 1.2 percent and real personal consumption expenditures increased at 1.8 percent. In the twenty-second wave, nominal personal income increased at 5.5 percent in Mar-Apr 2016. Nominal disposable income increased at 4.9 percent and real disposable income grew at 2.4 percent. Nominal personal consumption expenditures grew at 5.5 percent and real personal consumption expenditures increased at 3.0 percent. In the twenty-third wave, nominal personal income increased at 3.7 percent in May-Jul 2016 and nominal disposable income at 3.7 percent while nominal consumption expenditures increased at 3.7 percent. Real disposable income increased at 1.6 percent and real consumption expenditures at 3.2 percent. In the twenty-fourth wave, nominal personal income increased at 0.8 percent in Aug-Oct 2016 and nominal disposable income at 0.4 percent while nominal consumption expenditures increased at 4.9 percent. Real disposable income decreased at 1.6 percent and real personal consumption expenditures increased at 2.8 percent. In the twenty-fifth wave, nominal personal income changed at 0.0 percent and nominal disposable income increased at 0.6 percent in Nov-Dec 2016. Nominal personal consumption expenditures increased at 4.9 percent. Real personal disposable income decreased at 2.4 percent and real personal consumption expenditures increased at 4.3 percent. In the twenty-sixth wave, nominal personal income increased at annual equivalent 8.7 percent in Jan-Feb 2017, nominal disposable income at 8.7 percent and nominal personal consumption expenditures at 2.4 percent. Real disposable income increased at 5.5 percent and real personal consumption expenditures fell at 0.6 percent. In the twenty-seventh wave, nominal personal income increased at 2.4 percent in Mar-May 2017 and nominal disposable income at 3.7 percent while nominal personal consumption increased at 4.1 percent. Real disposable income increased at 3.2 percent annual equivalent and real personal consumption expenditures increased at 4.5 percent. In the twenty-eighth wave, nominal personal income changed at 0.0 percent in Jun 2017 and nominal disposable income changed at 0.0 percent while nominal personal consumption increased at 1.2 percent. Real disposable income decreased at 1.2 percent and real consumption expenditures increased at 1.2 percent. In the twenty-ninth wave, nominal personal income increased at 3.0 percent in Jul-Aug 2017 while nominal disposable personal income increased at 1.8 percent. Real disposable income changed at 0.0 percent. Nominal personal consumption expenditures increased at 3.7 percent and real personal consumption expenditures increased at 1.8 percent. In the thirtieth wave, nominal personal income increased at 4.9 percent in Sep-Oct 2017 while nominal disposable personal income increased at 5.5 percent. Real disposable income increased at 1.8 percent. Nominal personal consumption expenditures increased at 7.4 percent and real personal consumption expenditures increased at 3.7 percent.

The United States economy has grown at the average yearly rate of 3 percent per year and 2 percent per year in per capita terms from 1870 to 2010, as measured by Lucas (2011May). An important characteristic of the economic cycle in the US has been rapid growth in the initial phase of expansion after recessions. Inferior performance of the US economy and labor markets is the critical current issue of analysis and policy design. Long-term economic performance in the United States consisted of trend growth of GDP at 3 percent per year and of per capita GDP at 2 percent per year as measured for 1870 to 2010 by Robert E Lucas (2011May). The economy returned to trend growth after adverse events such as wars and recessions. The key characteristic of adversities such as recessions was much higher rates of growth in expansion periods that permitted the economy to recover output, income and employment losses that occurred during the contractions. Over the business cycle, the economy compensated the losses of contractions with higher growth in expansions to maintain trend growth of GDP of 3 percent and of GDP per capita of 2 percent. US economic growth has been at only 2.2 percent on average in the cyclical expansion in the 33 quarters from IIIQ2009 to IIIQ2017. Boskin (2010Sep) measures that the US economy grew at 6.2 percent in the first four quarters and 4.5 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the second quarter of 1975; and at 7.7 percent in the first four quarters and 5.8 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the first quarter of 1983 (Professor Michael J. Boskin, Summer of Discontent, Wall Street Journal, Sep 2, 2010 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882304575465462926649950.html). There are new calculations using the revision of US GDP and personal income data since 1929 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (http://bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) and the second estimate of GDP for IIIQ2017 (https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2017/pdf/gdp3q17_2nd.pdf). The average of 7.7 percent in the first four quarters of major cyclical expansions is in contrast with the rate of growth in the first four quarters of the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010 of only 2.7 percent obtained by dividing GDP of $14,745.9 billion in IIQ2010 by GDP of $14,355.6 billion in IIQ2009 {[($14,745.9/$14,355.6) -1]100 = 2.7%], or accumulating the quarter on quarter growth rates (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/dollar-revaluation-and-increase-of.html). The expansion from IQ1983 to IVQ1985 was at the average annual growth rate of 5.9 percent, 5.4 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1986, 5.2 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1986, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1989, 4.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1989, 4.7 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1989, 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1989. 4.5 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1990, 4.4 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1990, 4.3 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1990, 4.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1990, 3.8 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1991 and at 7.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/12/mediocre-cyclical-united-states.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/dollar-revaluation-and-increase-of.html). The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dates a contraction of the US from IQ1990 (Jul) to IQ1991 (Mar) (http://www.nber.org/cycles.html). The expansion lasted until another contraction beginning in IQ2001 (Mar). US GDP contracted 1.3 percent from the pre-recession peak of $8983.9 billion of chained 2009 dollars in IIIQ1990 to the trough of $8865.6 billion in IQ1991 (http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IIIQ2017 would have accumulated to 33.4 percent. GDP in IIIQ2017 would be $19,999.1 billion (in constant dollars of 2009) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $2829.4 billion than actual $17,169.7 billion. There are about two trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 21.4 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 12.6 percent of the effective labor force (Section I and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/11/unchanged-fomc-policy-rate-gradual.html and earlier https://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/twenty-one-million-unemployed-or.html). US GDP in IIIQ2017 is 14.1 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $14,991.8 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $17,169.7 billion in IIIQ2017 or 14.5 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.4 percent. Professor John H. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. Cochrane (2016May02) measures GDP growth in the US at average 3.5 percent per year from 1950 to 2000 and only at 1.76 percent per year from 2000 to 2015 with only at 2.0 percent annual equivalent in the current expansion. Cochrane (2016May02) proposes drastic changes in regulation and legal obstacles to private economic activity. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 3.1 percent per year from Oct 1919 to Oct 2017. Growth at 3.1 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output from 108.2393 in Dec 2007 to 146.1374 in Oct 2017. The actual index NSA in Oct 2017 is 106.1414, which is 27.4 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 2.1 percent between Dec 1986 and Oct 2017. Using trend growth of 2.1 percent per year, the index would increase to 132.7816 in Oct 2017. The output of manufacturing at 106.1414 in Oct 2017 is 20.1 percent below trend under this alternative calculation.

Table IB-1, US, Percentage Change from Prior Month Seasonally Adjusted of Personal Income, Disposable Income and Personal Consumption Expenditures %

	NPI	NDPI	RDPI	NPCE	RPCE
Oct 2017	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.1
Sep	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.9	0.5
AE ∆% Sep-Oct	4.9	5.5	1.8	7.4	3.7
Aug	0.2	0.1	-0.1	0.2	0.0
Jul	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.4	0.3
AE ∆% Jul-Aug	3.0	1.8	0.0	3.7	1.8
Jun	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.1	0.1
AE ∆% Jun	0.0	0.0	-1.2	1.2	1.2
May	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.3
Apr	0.1	0.2	-0.1	0.3	0.1
Mar	0.3	0.3	0.5	0.5	0.7
AE ∆% Mar-May	2.4	3.7	3.2	4.1	4.5
Feb	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0
Jan	0.9	0.9	0.5	0.3	-0.1
AE ∆% Jan-Feb	8.7	8.7	5.5	2.4	-0.6
Dec 2016	0.1	0.0	-0.2	0.5	0.4
Nov	-0.1	-0.1	-0.2	0.3	0.3
AE ∆% Nov-Dec	0.0	0.6	-2.4	4.9	4.3
Oct	0.0	0.0	-0.2	0.3	0.1
Sep	0.1	0.1	-0.1	0.6	0.5
Aug	0.1	0.0	-0.1	0.3	0.1
AE ∆% Aug-Oct	0.8	0.4	-1.6	4.9	2.8
Jul	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.2
Jun	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.5	0.4
May	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.4	0.2
AE ∆% May-Jul	3.7	3.7	1.6	3.7	3.2
Apr	0.6	0.5	0.2	0.8	0.5
Mar	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0
AE ∆% Mar-Apr	5.5	4.9	2.4	5.5	3.0
Feb	-0.2	-0.1	-0.1	0.4	0.4
Jan	-0.2	0.1	-0.1	0.0	-0.1
AE ∆% Jan-Feb	-2.4	0.0	-1.2	2.4	1.8
2015
Dec	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3
Nov	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.4	0.3
Oct	0.6	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.1
Sep	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.3
AE ∆% Sep-Dec	3.0	2.8	2.4	4.5	3.0
Aug	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3
Jul	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.4	0.3
Jun	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.2	0.0
AE ∆% Jun-Aug	2.8	2.8	1.6	3.7	2.4
May	0.6	0.6	0.4	0.6	0.4
Apr	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.2	0.1
Mar	0.1	0.1	-0.1	0.7	0.5
AE ∆% Mar-Jun	5.3	5.3	3.7	6.2	4.1
Feb	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.3	0.2
Jan	0.2	-0.1	0.3	-0.1	0.4
AE ∆% Jan-Feb	4.3	2.4	4.3	1.2	3.7
2014
Dec	0.3	0.3	0.5	0.0	0.2
Nov	0.5	0.5	0.6	0.4	0.5
Oct	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6
Sep	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0
AE ∆% Sep-Dec	5.5	5.2	6.2	3.3	4.0
Aug	0.6	0.5	0.5	0.7	0.7
Jul	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.2
Jun	0.6	0.6	0.5	0.4	0.4
May	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.3	0.2
Apr	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.1
AE ∆% Apr-Aug	5.9	5.9	4.7	4.9	3.9
Mar	0.7	0.8	0.6	0.7	0.6
Feb	0.7	0.7	0.6	0.5	0.4
Jan	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.1	-0.2
AE ∆% Jan-Mar	8.3	8.3	6.2	5.3	3.2
2013
Dec	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.2	0.0
AE ∆% Dec	4.9	3.7	1.2	2.4	0.0
Nov	0.5	0.4	0.3	0.7	0.5
AE ∆% Nov	6.2	4.9	3.7	8.7	6.2
Oct	-0.1	-0.1	-0.3	0.4	0.2
AE ∆% Oct	-1.2	-1.2	-3.5	4.9	2.4
Sep	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.5	0.4
Aug	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.1
Jul	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.2	0.1
Jun	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.4	0.2
May	0.7	0.6	0.6	0.2	0.2
Apr	0.1	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.0
AE ∆% Apr-Sep	4.1	3.7	2.6	2.8	2.0
Mar	0.1	0.0	0.1	-0.2	-0.1
Feb	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.5	0.1
AE ∆% Feb-Mar	3.0	2.4	0.6	1.8	0.0
Jan	-5.2	-6.1 (0.1)^a	-6.2	0.3	0.2
AE ∆% Jan	-47.3	-53.0 (3.7)^a	-53.6	3.7	2.4
2012
∆% Jan-Dec 2012***	8.5	8.6	6.8	3.3	2.3
Dec	2.6	2.6 (0.3)*	2.6 (0.5)*	0.2	0.2
Nov	1.2	1.2 (0.6)*	1.3 (0.9)*	0.2	0.3
AE ∆% Nov-Dec	25.3	25.3 (5.5)*	26.0 (8.7)*	2.4	3.0
Oct	0.9	0.9	0.6	0.1	-0.2
Sep	0.9	0.8	0.5	0.7	0.4
Aug	0.2	0.2	-0.2	0.2	-0.2
AE ∆% Aug-Oct	8.3	7.9	3.7	4.1	0.0
Jul	-0.2	-0.2	-0.3	0.3	0.3
Jun	0.2	0.2	0.2	-0.1	-0.1
May	0.0	0.0	0.1	-0.1	0.0
Apr	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.1
AE ∆% Apr-Jul	1.2	1.2	0.9	1.2	0.9
Mar	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.1	-0.1
Feb	0.8	0.8	0.6	0.6	0.4
Jan	0.7	1.0	0.7	0.7	0.4
AE ∆% Jan-Mar	8.3	9.6	4.9	4.3	2.1
2011
∆% Jan-Dec 2011*	5.1	4.1	1.6	3.7	1.8
Dec	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.0	0.0
Nov	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.0	-0.1
Oct	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.3
Sep	-0.1	-0.1	-0.3	0.4	0.3
AE ∆% Sep-Dec	2.4	2.4	1.5	2.1	1.5
Aug	0.2	0.2	-0.1	0.2	-0.1
Jul	0.6	0.6	0.4	0.5	0.3
Jun	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.2
May	0.3	0.3	-0.1	0.3	-0.1
AE ∆% May-Aug	4.9	4.9	1.8	3.7	0.9
Apr	0.2	0.2	-0.3	0.4	0.0
Mar	0.2	0.2	-0.1	0.7	0.3
Feb	0.5	0.6	0.3	0.4	0.1
Jan	1.6	0.7	0.5	0.4	0.1
AE ∆% Jan-Apr	7.7	5.2	1.2	5.9	1.5
2010
∆% Jan-Dec 2010**	5.2	4.3	2.9	4.4	2.9
Dec	0.9	0.9	0.7	0.3	0.1
Nov	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.5	0.4
Oct	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.7	0.5
IVQ2010∆%	1.9	1.9	1.2	1.5	1.0
IVQ2010 AE ∆%	7.9	7.9	4.9	6.2	4.1

Notes: *Excluding exceptional income gains in Nov and Dec 2012 because of anticipated tax increases in Jan 2013 ((page 2 at http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/2013/pdf/pi1212.pdf). ^aExcluding employee contributions for government social insurance (pages 1-2 at http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/2013/pdf/pi0113.pdf )Excluding NPI: current dollars personal income; NDPI: current dollars disposable personal income; RDPI: chained (2005) dollars DPI; NPCE: current dollars personal consumption expenditures; RPCE: chained (2005) dollars PCE; AE: annual equivalent; IVQ2010: fourth quarter 2010; A: annual equivalent

Percentage change month to month seasonally adjusted

*∆% Dec 2011/Dec 2010 **∆% Dec 2010/Dec 2009 *** ∆% Dec 2012/Dec 2011

Source: US Bureau of Economic http://bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm

Table IB-2 provides 12-month rates of growth of real disposable personal income (RDPI), real personal consumption expenditures (RPCE), real personal consumption expenditures in goods (RPCEG), real personal consumption expenditures in durable goods (RPCEGD) and real personal consumption expenditures of services (RPCES). The rates of growth of real disposable income decline in the final quarter of 2013 because of the increases in the last two months of 2012 in anticipation of the tax increases of the “fiscal cliff” episode. The increase was provided in the “fiscal cliff” law H.R. 8 American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 (http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/BILLS-112hr8eas/pdf/BILLS-112hr8eas.pdf).

The 12-month rate of increase of real disposable income fell to minus 1.3 percent in Oct 2013 and minus 2.4 percent in Nov 2013 partly because of the much higher level in late 2012 in anticipation of incomes to avoid increases in taxes in 2013. Real disposable income fell 4.8 percent in the 12 months ending in Dec 2013 primarily because of the much higher level in late 2012 in anticipation of income to avoid increases in taxes in 2013. Real disposable income increased 1.9 percent in the 12 months ending in Jan 2014, partly because of the low level in Jan 2013 after anticipation of incomes in late 2012 in avoiding the fiscal cliff episode. Real disposable income increased 1.6 percent in the 12 months ending in Oct 2017.

RPCE growth decelerated less sharply from close to 3 percent in IVQ2010 to 2.6 percent in Oct 2017. Subdued growth of RPCE could affect revenues of business. Growth rates of personal consumption have weakened. Goods and especially durable goods have been driving growth of PCE as shown by the much higher 12-month rates of growth of real goods PCE (RPCEG) and durable goods real PCE (RPCEGD) than services real PCE (RPCES). Growth of consumption of goods and, in particular, of consumer durable goods drives the faster expansion of the economy while growth of consumption of services is much more moderate. The 12-month rates of growth of RPCEGD have fallen from around 10 percent and even higher in several months from Sep 2010 to Feb 2011 to the range of 5.6 to 7.7 percent from Oct 2016 to Oct 2017. RPCEG growth rates have fallen from around 5 percent late in 2010 and early Jan-Feb 2011 to the range of 3.1 to 4.3 percent from Oct 2016 to Oct 2017. In Oct 2017, RPCEG increased 3.9 percent in 12 months and RPCEGD 5.8 percent while RPCES increased 2.0 percent. There are limits to sustained growth based on financial repression in an environment of weak labor markets and real labor remuneration.

Table IB-2, Real Disposable Personal Income and Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

Percentage Change from the Same Month a Year Earlier %

	RDPI	RPCE	RPCEG	RPCEGD	RPCES
2017
Oct	1.6	2.6	3.9	5.8	2.0
Sep	1.1	2.6	4.0	7.0	1.9
Aug	1.0	2.6	3.6	5.6	2.1
Jul	1.0	2.7	3.5	5.8	2.3
Jun	1.1	2.6	3.1	6.1	2.3
May	1.3	2.8	3.7	6.6	2.4
Apr	1.0	2.8	3.6	6.7	2.4
Mar	1.3	3.2	4.0	6.9	2.9
Feb	0.9	2.5	3.1	6.3	2.2
Jan	0.5	2.9	3.8	6.9	2.4
2016
Dec	0.0	2.9	3.9	7.3	2.4
Nov	0.3	2.8	3.7	5.9	2.4
Oct	0.5	2.8	4.3	7.7	2.1
Sep	1.1	2.8	3.5	6.1	2.5
Aug	1.4	2.7	3.2	4.6	2.4
Jul	1.8	2.8	3.8	6.4	2.4
Jun	1.6	3.0	4.2	5.6	2.4
May	1.6	2.6	3.4	3.7	2.2
Apr	1.9	2.7	3.8	4.6	2.2
Mar	2.3	2.3	2.8	3.5	2.1
Feb	1.9	2.8	4.3	5.9	2.1
Jan	2.4	2.6	3.3	4.6	2.2
2015
Dec	2.8	3.1	4.2	6.5	2.5
Nov	3.2	2.9	3.8	6.2	2.5
Oct	3.7	3.1	3.9	6.5	2.7
Sep	3.9	3.7	5.1	7.9	3.0
Aug	3.9	3.3	4.1	6.5	3.0
Jul	4.2	3.8	4.9	7.8	3.3
Jun	4.3	3.7	4.5	7.0	3.4
May	4.7	4.1	5.2	8.8	3.6
Apr	4.7	3.9	4.5	8.5	3.6
Mar	4.4	3.9	4.9	8.0	3.4
Feb	5.1	4.0	4.5	8.4	3.7
Jan	5.3	4.2	6.0	11.5	3.3
2014
Dec	5.3	3.7	4.9	9.6	3.1
Nov	4.9	3.5	4.7	8.5	2.9
Oct	4.6	3.6	4.4	7.9	3.1
Sep	3.7	3.2	3.8	7.8	2.8
Aug	3.7	3.5	5.2	8.7	2.7
Jul	3.5	2.9	3.7	6.9	2.4
Jun	3.3	2.8	3.9	7.2	2.2
May	3.0	2.6	3.7	7.3	2.1
Apr	3.3	2.6	4.0	6.2	1.9
Mar	3.0	2.5	4.2	7.9	1.7
Feb	2.5	1.9	2.3	3.3	1.6
Jan	1.9	1.6	1.4	1.3	1.7
2013
Dec	-4.8	1.9	2.9	3.1	1.4
Nov	-2.4	2.2	3.8	5.8	1.3
Oct	-1.3	1.9	3.7	6.8	1.0
Sep	-0.5	1.5	2.9	4.5	0.8
Aug	-0.3	1.5	2.8	6.6	0.9
Jul	-0.8	1.3	3.4	6.9	0.2
Jun	-1.0	1.5	3.5	7.5	0.5
May	-1.0	1.2	3.0	6.5	0.3
Apr	-1.5	1.0	2.5	6.1	0.2
Mar	-1.2	1.1	2.4	5.6	0.5
Feb	-1.1	1.1	3.0	7.2	0.1
Jan	-0.5	1.4	3.4	7.8	0.3
2012
Dec	6.8	1.6	3.6	8.7	0.6
Nov	4.9	1.4	2.8	7.7	0.7
Oct	3.4	1.0	1.9	5.2	0.5
Sep	2.9	1.4	3.4	8.5	0.4
Aug	2.1	1.3	3.4	8.5	0.3
Jul	2.2	1.4	2.8	7.5	0.7
Jun	2.9	1.4	2.5	8.3	0.8
May	3.1	1.7	3.1	7.9	1.0
Apr	3.0	1.6	2.5	7.0	1.2
Mar	2.4	1.4	2.3	5.9	1.0
Feb	2.0	1.8	2.5	7.1	1.5
Jan	1.8	1.5	1.9	5.9	1.3
Dec 2011	1.6	1.2	1.4	5.0	1.1
Dec 2010	2.9	2.9	4.7	8.4	2.1

Notes: RDPI: real disposable personal income; RPCE: real personal consumption expenditures (PCE); RPCEG: real PCE goods; RPCEGD: RPCEG durable goods; RPCES: RPCE services

Numbers are percentage changes from the same month a year earlier

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis http://bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm

Chart IB-1 shows US real personal consumption expenditures (RPCE) between 1999 and 2017. There is an evident drop in RPCE during the global recession in 2007 to 2009 but the slope is flatter during the current recovery than in the period before 2007.

Chart IB-1, US, Real Personal Consumption Expenditures, Quarterly Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates 1999-2017

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

	Personal Income	Wages & Salaries	Personal Taxes	DPI	Savings Rate %
Oct 2017	16,574.6	8,427.7	2,061.3	14,513.3	3.2
Sep 2017	16,509.5	8,401.7	2,062.3	14,447.2	3.0
Change Sep 2017/ Aug 2017	65.1 ∆% 0.4	26.0 ∆% 0.3	-1.0 ∆% 0.0	66.1 ∆% 0.5
Dec 2016	16,027.3	8,099.4	1,982.5	14,044.8	3.2
Dec 2015	15,779.5	8,034.9	1,978.0	13,801.5	5.8
Change Dec 2016/ Dec 2015	247.8 ∆% 1.6	64.5 ∆% 0.8	4.5 ∆% 0.2	243.3 ∆% 1.8
Dec 2015	15,779.5	8,034.9	1,978.0	13,801.5	5.8
Change Dec 2015/Dec 2014	575.6 ∆% 3.8	369.9 ∆% 4.8	131.9 ∆% 7.1	443.7 ∆% 3.3
Dec 2014	15,203.9	7,665.0	1,846.1	13,357.8	6.1
Change Dec 2014/Dec 2013	910.0 ∆% 6.4	419.7 ∆% 5.8	128.5 ∆% 7.5	781.5 ∆% 6.2
Dec 2013	14,293.9	7,245.3	1,717.6	12,576.3	4.7
Dec 2012	14,622.9	7,184.6	1,604.1	13,018.8	11.0
Change Dec 2013/ Dec 2012	-329.0 ∆% -2.2	60.7 ∆% 0.8	113.5 ∆% 7.3	-442.5 ∆% -3.4
Change Dec 2012/ Dec 2011	1150.5 ∆% 8.5	501.7 ∆% 7.5	120.3 ∆% 8.1	1030.2 ∆% 8.6
Dec 2011	13,472.4	6,682.9	1,483.8	11,988.6	6.4
Dec 2010	12,816.4	6,506.0	1,301.9	11,514.5	5.9
Change Dec 2011/ Dec 2010	656.0 ∆% 5.1	176.9 ∆% 2.7	181.9 ∆% 14.0	474.1 ∆% 4.1

RDPI Average ∆%
1929-2016	3.2
1947-1999	3.7
1999-2016	2.4
1999-2006	3.2
1980-1989	3.5
2006-2016	1.8
2007-2016	1.7
RDPIPC Average ∆%
1929-2016	2.0
1947-1999	2.3
1999-2016	1.5
1999-2006	2.2
1980-1989	2.6
2006-2016	1.0
2007-2016	0.9

Month	RDPI-PC ∆% 12/79	RDPI-PC ∆% YOY	Month	RDPI-PC ∆% 12/07	RDPI-PC ∆% YOY
11/1982	2.4	0.7	6/2009	-0.6	-2.4
12/1982	2.9	1.3	9/2009	-1.3	-0.6
12/1983	7.8	4.8	6/2010	-0.4	0.2
12/1987	20.4	2.7	6/2014	4.2	2.5
1/1988	20.6	2.6	7/2014	4.4	2.7
2/1988	21.2	2.6	8/2014	4.8	3.0
3/1988	21.6	2.9	9/2014	5.0	3.0
4/1988	21.9	7.4	10/2014	5.5	3.8
5/1988	22.0	3.3	11/2014	6.1	4.1
6/1988	22.3	3.9	12/2014	6.5	4.5
7/1988	22.7	4.0	1/2015	6.8	4.6
8/1988	23.0	3.8	2/2015	7.1	4.3
9/1988	23.1	4.0	3/2015	7.0	3.6
10/1988	23.6	3.9	4/2015	7.6	3.9
11/1988	23.6	3.5	5/2015	7.9	3.9
12/1988	24.2	3.2	6/2015	8.0	3.6
1/1989	24.7	3.4	7/2015	7.9	3.4
2/1989	25.0	3.2	8/2015	8.1	3.1
3/1989	25.6	3.3	9/2015	8.3	3.1
4/1989	24.8	2.4	10/2015	8.7	3.0
5/1989	24.1	1.8	11/2015	8.7	2.4
6/1989	24.4	1.6	12/2015	8.7	2.1
7/1989	24.7	1.6	1/2016	8.6	1.7
8/1989	24.9	1.6	2/2016	8.5	1.2
9/1989	25.1	1.7	3/2016	8.7	1.5
10/1989	25.6	1.6	4/2016	8.9	1.2
11/1989	25.6	1.6	5/2016	8.9	0.9
12/1989	25.6	1.1	6/2016	9.0	0.9
1/1990	26.3	1.3	7/2016	9.1	1.1
2/1990	26.5	1.2	8/2016	8.9	0.7
3/1990	26.4	0.6	9/2016	8.7	0.4
4/1990	27.0	1.7	10/216	8.5	-0.2
5/1990	26.6	1.9	11/2016	8.2	-0.4
6/1990	26.7	1.9	12/2016	8.0	-0.7
7/1990	27.0	1.8	1/2017	8.4	-0.2
8/1990	26.1	0.9	2/2017	8.7	0.2
9/1990	25.9	0.6	3/2017	9.3	0.6
10/1990	24.8	-0.7	4/2017	9.1	0.3
11/1990	24.7	-0.8	5/2017	9.5	0.6
12/1990	25.2	-0.3	06/2017	9.4	0.4
1/1991	24.7	-1.2	07/2017	9.4	0.3
2/1991	24.8	-1.4	08/2017	9.3	0.4
3/1991	24.9	-1.2	09/2017	9.2	0.4
4/1991	25.2	-1,4	10/2017	9.5	0.9

Month	RDPI ∆% 12/07	RDPI ∆% Month	RDPI ∆% YOY	RDPI-PC ∆% 12/07	RDPI-PC ∆% Month	RDPI-PC ∆% YOY
6/09	0.8	-1.7	-1.5	-0.6	-1.8	-2.4
9/09	0.3	0.1	0.3	-1.3	0.1	-0.6
6/10	1.8	0.0	1.0	-0.4	0.0	0.2
12/10	3.3	0.7	2.9	0.7	0.6	2.1
6/11	4.1	0.4	2.3	1.2	0.4	1.5
12/11	5.0	0.8	1.6	1.6	0.7	0.8
6/12	7.2	0.2	2.9	3.4	0.2	2.2
10/12	7.9	0.6	3.4	3.7	0.5	2.7
11/12	9.3	1.3	4.9	5.1	1.3	4.1
12/12	12.1	2.6	6.8	7.7	2.6	6.1
6/13	6.2	0.2	-1.0	1.7	0.2	-1.6
12/13	6.8	0.1	-4.8	1.9	0.1	-5.4
1/14	7.1	0.3	1.9	2.1	0.2	1.2
2/14	7.8	0.6	2.5	2.7	0.6	1.8
3/14	8.4	0.6	3.0	3.3	0.5	2.3
4/14	8.7	0.3	3.3	3.5	0.2	2.5
5/14	9.1	0.4	3.0	3.8	0.3	2.3
6/14	9.6	0.5	3.3	4.2	0.4	2.5
7/14	9.8	0.2	3.5	4.4	0.1	2.7
8/14	10.4	0.5	3.7	4.8	0.5	3.0
9/14	10.7	0.3	3.7	5.0	0.2	3.0
10/14	11.3	0.6	4.6	5.5	0.5	3.8
11/14	11.9	0.6	4.9	6.1	0.5	4.1
12/14	12.5	0.5	5.3	6.5	0.4	4.5
1/15	12.8	0.3	5.3	6.8	0.3	4.6
2/15	13.3	0.4	5.1	7.1	0.3	4.3
3/15	13.2	-0.1	4.4	7.0	-0.1	3.6
4/15	13.8	0.6	4.7	7.6	0.5	3.9
5/15	14.2	0.4	4.7	7.9	0.3	3.9
6/15	14.4	0.1	4.3	8.0	0.1	3.6
7/15	14.4	0.0	4.2	7.9	-0.1	3.4
8/15	14.7	0.3	3.9	8.1	0.2	3.1
9/15	15.0	0.3	3.9	8.3	0.2	3.1
10/15	15.5	0.4	3.7	8.7	0.4	3.0
11/15	15.5	0.0	3.2	8.7	0.0	2.4
12/15	15.6	0.1	2.8	8.7	0.1	2.1
1/16	15.5	-0.1	2.4	8.6	-0.1	1.7
2/16	15.5	-0.1	1.9	8.5	-0.1	1.2
3/16	15.7	0.2	2.3	8.7	0.2	1.5
4/16	16.0	0.2	1.9	8.9	0.2	1.2
5/16	16.1	0.1	1.6	8.9	0.1	0.9
6/16	16.3	0.1	1.6	9.0	0.1	0.9
7/16	16.4	0.2	1.8	9.1	0.1	1.1
8/16	16.3	-0.1	1.4	8.9	-0.2	0.7
9/16	16.2	-0.1	1.1	8.7	-0.1	0.4
10/16	16.0	-0.2	0.5	8.5	-0.3	-0.2
11/16	15.8	-0.2	0.3	8.2	-0.2	-0.4
12/16	15.6	-0.2	0.0	8.0	-0.2	-0.7
1/17	16.1	0.5	0.5	8.4	0.4	-0.2
2/17	16.5	0.4	0.9	8.7	0.3	0.2
3/17	17.2	0.5	1.3	9.3	0.5	0.6
4/17	17.1	-0.1	1.0	9.1	-0.1	0.3
5/17	17.6	0.4	1.3	9.5	0.4	0.6
06/17	17.5	-0.1	1.1	9.4	-0.1	0.4
07/17	17.6	0.1	1.0	9.4	0.0	0.3
08/17	17.5	-0.1	1.0	9.3	-0.1	0.4
09/17	17.5	0.0	1.1	9.2	-0.1	0.4
10/17	17.9	0.3	1.6	9.5	0.3	0.9

	Personal Savings as Percent of Disposable Personal Income	Annual Change of Real Disposable Personal Income
1930	4.4	-6.3
1933	-0.8	-2.9
1944	27.9	3.1
1947	6.3	-4.1
1954	10.3	1.4
1958	11.4	1.1
1960	10.0	2.6
1970	12.6	4.6
1975	13.0	2.5
1982	11.5	2.1
1989	7.8	3.0
1992	8.9	4.3
2002	5.0	3.1
2003	4.8	2.7
2004	4.5	3.6
2005	2.6	1.5
2006	3.3	4.0
2007	2.9	2.1
2008	4.9	1.5
2009	6.1	-0.4
2010	5.6	1.0
2011	6.0	2.5
2012	7.6	3.2
2013	5.0	-1.4
2014	5.7	3.6
2015	6.1	4.2
2016	4.9	1.4
Average Savings Ratio
1980-1989	9.3
2007-2016	5.5
Average Yearly ∆% Real Disposable Income
1980-1989		3.2
2007-2016		1.8

	Personal Saving as % Disposable Income	RDPI ∆% 12/07	RDPI ∆% Month	RDPI ∆% YOY
May 2008	7.9	5.1	4.8	5.7
May 2009	8.1	2.5	1.6	-2.5
Jun 2010	5.9	1.8	0.0	1.0
Nov 2011	5.6	4.2	-0.1	1.5
Jun 2012	7.6	7.2	0.2	2.9
Aug 2012	7.1	6.7	-0.2	2.1
Dec 2012	11.0	12.1	2.6	6.8
Jan 2013	4.9	5.2	-6.2	-0.5
Feb 2013	4.7	5.1	0.0	-1.1
Mar 2013	4.8	5.2	0.1	-1.2
Apr 2013	4.9	5.3	0.0	-1.5
May 2013	5.3	5.9	0.6	-1.0
Jun 2013	5.4	6.2	0.2	-1.0
Jul 2013	5.2	6.1	-0.1	-0.8
Aug 2013	5.4	6.4	0.3	-0.3
Sep 2013	5.3	6.7	0.3	-0.5
Oct 2013	4.8	6.4	-0.3	-1.3
Nov 2013	4.6	6.7	0.3	-2.4
Dec 2013	4.7	6.8	0.1	-4.8
Jan 2014	5.1	7.1	0.3	1.9
Feb 2014	5.4	7.8	0.6	2.5
Mar 2014	5.4	8.4	0.6	3.0
Apr 2014	5.5	8.7	0.3	3.3
May 2014	5.7	9.1	0.4	3.0
Jun 2014	5.9	9.6	0.5	3.3
Jul 2014	5.8	9.8	0.2	3.5
Aug 2014	5.6	10.4	0.5	3.7
Sep 2014	5.8	10.7	0.3	3.7
Oct 2014	5.8	11.3	0.6	4.6
Nov 2014	5.8	11.9	0.6	4.9
Dec 2014	6.1	12.5	0.5	5.3
Jan 2015	6.1	12.8	0.3	5.3
Feb 2015	6.3	13.3	0.4	5.1
Mar 2015	5.8	13.2	-0.1	4.4
Apr 2015	6.2	13.8	0.6	4.7
May 2015	6.2	14.2	0.4	4.7
Jun 2015	6.3	14.4	0.1	4.3
Jul 2015	6.0	14.4	0.0	4.2
Aug 2015	6.0	14.7	0.3	3.9
Sep 2015	6.0	15.0	0.3	3.9
Oct 2015	6.3	15.5	0.4	3.7
Nov 2015	6.1	15.5	0.0	3.2
Dec 2015	5.8	15.6	0.1	2.8
Jan 2016	5.9	15.5	-0.1	2.4
Feb 2016	5.5	15.5	-0.1	1.9
Mar 2016	5.7	15.7	0.2	2.3
Apr 2016	5.5	16.0	0.2	1.9
May 2016	5.4	16.1	0.1	1.6
Jun 2016	5.1	16.3	0.1	1.6
Jul 2016	5.1	16.4	0.2	1.8
Aug 2016	4.9	16.3	-0.1	1.4
Sep 2016	4.5	16.2	-0.1	1.1
Oct 2016	4.1	16.0	-0.2	0.5
Nov 2016	3.7	15.8	-0.2	0.3
Dec 2016	3.2	15.6	-0.2	0.0
Jan 2017	3.7	16.1	0.5	0.5
Feb 2017	4.1	16.5	0.4	0.9
Mar 2017	3.9	17.2	0.5	1.3
Apr 2017	3.7	17.1	-0.1	1.0
May 2017	3.8	17.6	0.4	1.3
Jun 2017	3.6	17.5	-0.1	1.1
Jul 2017	3.4	17.6	-0.1	1.0
Aug 2017	3.4	17.5	-0.1	1.0
Sep 2017	3.0	17.5	0.0	1.1
Oct 2017	3.2	17.9	0.3	1.6

	Trade Balance	Exports	Month ∆%	Imports	Month ∆%
Oct 2017	-48,731	195,907	0.0	244,639	1.6
Sep	-44,890	195,928	1.1	240,817	1.2
Aug	-44,306	193,749	0.2	238,054	-0.2
Jul	-45,162	193,416	-0.1	238,578	-0.3
Jun	-45,686	193,565	1.2	239,251	0.0
May	-47,883	191,357	0.2	239,239	0.0
Apr	-48,147	191,050	-0.6	239,197	0.9
Mar	-44,812	192,218	0.0	237,029	0.1
Feb	-44,507	192,311	0.3	236,818	-1.5
Jan	-48,775	191,698	1.2	240,473	2.7
Dec 2016	-44,607	189,507	2.5	234,114	1.3
Nov	-46,373	184,848	-0.4	231,221	1.1
Oct	-43,069	185,599	-1.3	228,668	0.9
Sep	-38,466	188,123	0.4	226,588	-0.8
Aug	-41,130	187,385	1.1	228,514	0.8
Jul	-41,294	185,330	0.8	226,624	-0.4
Jun	-43,385	183,770	0.9	227,605	1.8
May	-41,520	182,166	0.1	223,686	1.5
Apr	-38,422	181,895	1.1	220,317	1.4
Mar	-37,380	179,887	-0.6	217,277	-3.9
Feb	-45,290	180,892	1.2	226,182	1.9
Jan	-43,409	178,660	-2.3	222,070	-0.9
Dec 2015	-41,125	182,919	-0.5	224,044	-0.3
Jan-Dec 2016	-504,793	2,208,072	-2.5	2,712,866	-1.9

	Balance	∆%	Exports	∆%	Imports	∆%
1960	4,608	(X)	19,626	(X)	15,018	(X)
1961	5,476	18.8	20,190	2.9	14,714	-2.0
1962	4,583	-16.3	20,973	3.9	16,390	11.4
1963	5,289	15.4	22,427	6.9	17,138	4.6
1964	7,006	32.5	25,690	14.5	18,684	9.0
1965	5,333	-23.9	26,699	3.9	21,366	14.4
1966	3,837	-28.1	29,379	10.0	25,542	19.5
1967	4,122	7.4	30,934	5.3	26,812	5.0
1968	837	-79.7	34,063	10.1	33,226	23.9
1969	1,289	54.0	37,332	9.6	36,043	8.5
1970	3,224	150.1	43,176	15.7	39,952	10.8
1971	-1,476	-145.8	44,087	2.1	45,563	14.0
1972	-5,729	288.1	49,854	13.1	55,583	22.0
1973	2,389	-141.7	71,865	44.2	69,476	25.0
1974	-3,884	-262.6	99,437	38.4	103,321	48.7
1975	9,551	-345.9	108,856	9.5	99,305	-3.9
1976	-7,820	-181.9	116,794	7.3	124,614	25.5
1977	-28,352	262.6	123,182	5.5	151,534	21.6
1978	-30,205	6.5	145,847	18.4	176,052	16.2
1979	-23,922	-20.8	186,363	27.8	210,285	19.4
1980	-19,696	-17.7	225,566	21.0	245,262	16.6
1981	-22,267	13.1	238,715	5.8	260,982	6.4
1982	-27,510	23.5	216,442	-9.3	243,952	-6.5
1983	-52,409	90.5	205,639	-5.0	258,048	5.8
1984	-106,702	103.6	223,976	8.9	330,678	28.1
1985	-117,711	10.3	218,815	-2.3	336,526	1.8
1986	-138,279	17.5	227,159	3.8	365,438	8.6
1987	-152,119	10.0	254,122	11.9	406,241	11.2
1988	-118,526	-22.1	322,426	26.9	440,952	8.5
1989	-109,399	-7.7	363,812	12.8	473,211	7.3
1990	-101,719	-7.0	393,592	8.2	495,311	4.7
1991	-66,723	-34.4	421,730	7.1	488,453	-1.4
1992	-84,501	26.6	448,164	6.3	532,665	9.1
1993	-115,568	36.8	465,091	3.8	580,659	9.0
1994	-150,630	30.3	512,626	10.2	663,256	14.2
1995	-158,801	5.4	584,742	14.1	743,543	12.1
1996	-170,214	7.2	625,075	6.9	795,289	7.0
1997	-180,522	6.1	689,182	10.3	869,704	9.4
1998	-229,758	27.3	682,138	-1.0	911,896	4.9
1999	-328,821	43.1	695,797	2.0	1,024,618	12.4
2000	-436,104	32.6	781,918	12.4	1,218,022	18.9
2001	-411,899	-5.6	729,100	-6.8	1,140,999	-6.3
2002	-468,263	13.7	693,103	-4.9	1,161,366	1.8
2003	-532,350	13.7	724,771	4.6	1,257,121	8.2
2004	-654,830	23.0	814,875	12.4	1,469,704	16.9
2005	-772,373	18.0	901,082	10.6	1,673,455	13.9
2006	-827,971	7.2	1,025,967	13.9	1,853,938	10.8
2007	-808,763	-2.3	1,148,199	11.9	1,956,962	5.6
2008	-816,199	0.9	1,287,442	12.1	2,103,641	7.5
2009	-503,582	-38.3	1,056,043	-18.0	1,559,625	-25.9
2010	-635,362	26.2	1,278,495	21.1	1,913,857	22.7
2011	-725,447	14.2	1,482,508	16.0	2,207,954	15.4
2012	-730,446	0.7	1,545,821	4.3	2,276,267	3.1
2013	-689,470	-5.6	1,578,517	2.1	2,267,987	-0.4
2014	-734,482	6.5	1,621,874	2.7	2,356,356	3.9
2015	-745,082	1.4	1,503,101	-7.3	2,248,183	-4.6
2016	-736,794	-1.1	1,451,011	-3.5	2,187,805	-2.7

	Jan-Oct 2017 $ Millions	Jan-Oct 2016 $ Millions	∆%
Exports	1,275,127	1,201,334	6.1
Manufactured	909,960	873,812	4.1
Agricultural Commodities	112,251	107,535	4.4
Mineral Fuels	108,615	74,252	46.3
Petroleum	82,435	60,683	35.8
Imports	1,935,192	1,812,794	6.8
Manufactured	1,670,003	1,586,899	5.2
Agricultural Commodities	100,730	95,005	6.0
Mineral Fuels	161,308	124,787	29.3
Petroleum	150,220	116,170	29.3

	IIQ2016	IIQ2017	Difference
Goods Balance	-186,924	-204,290	-17,366
X Goods	364,780	385,684	5.7 ∆%
M Goods	-551,704	-589,974	6.9 ∆%
Services Balance	54,508	54,111	397
X Services	183,263	190,512	4.0 ∆%
M Services	-128,755	-136,400	5.9 ∆%
Balance Goods and Services	-132,416	-150,179	-17,763
Exports of Goods and Services and Income Receipts	786,186	834,952
Imports of Goods and Services and Income Payments	-901,072	-968,907
Current Account Balance	-114,886	-133,954	-19,068
% GDP	IIQ2016	IIQ2017	IQ2017
	2.3	2.6	2.4

	Balance	Exports	∆%	Imports	∆%
1960	3,508	25,940	NA	22,432	NA
1961	4,195	26,403	1.8	22,208	-1.0
1962	3,370	27,722	5.0	24,352	9.7
1963	4,210	29,620	6.8	25,410	4.3
1964	6,022	33,341	12.6	27,319	7.5
1965	4,664	35,285	5.8	30,621	12.1
1966	2,939	38,926	10.3	35,987	17.5
1967	2,604	41,333	6.2	38,729	7.6
1968	250	45,543	10.2	45,293	16.9
1969	91	49,220	8.1	49,129	8.5
1970	2,254	56,640	15.1	54,386	10.7
1971	-1,302	59,677	5.4	60,979	12.1
1972	-5,443	67,222	12.6	72,665	19.2
1973	1,900	91,242	35.7	89,342	23.0
1974	-4,293	120,897	32.5	125,190	40.1
1975	12,404	132,585	9.7	120,181	-4.0
1976	-6,082	142,716	7.6	148,798	23.8
1977	-27,246	152,301	6.7	179,547	20.7
1978	-29,763	178,428	17.2	208,191	16.0
1979	-24,565	224,131	25.6	248,696	19.5
1980	-19,407	271,834	21.3	291,241	17.1
1981	-16,172	294,398	8.3	310,570	6.6
1982	-24,156	275,236	-6.5	299,391	-3.6
1983	-57,767	266,106	-3.3	323,874	8.2
1984	-109,072	291,094	9.4	400,166	23.6
1985	-121,880	289,070	-0.7	410,950	2.7
1986	-138,538	310,033	7.3	448,572	9.2
1987	-151,684	348,869	12.5	500,552	11.6
1988	-114,566	431,149	23.6	545,715	9.0
1989	-93,141	487,003	13.0	580,144	6.3
1990	-80,864	535,233	9.9	616,097	6.2
1991	-31,135	578,344	8.1	609,479	-1.1
1992	-39,212	616,882	6.7	656,094	7.6
1993	-70,311	642,863	4.2	713,174	8.7
1994	-98,493	703,254	9.4	801,747	12.4
1995	-96,384	794,387	13.0	890,771	11.1
1996	-104,065	851,602	7.2	955,667	7.3
1997	-108,273	934,453	9.7	1,042,726	9.1
1998	-166,140	933,174	-0.1	1,099,314	5.4

	Oct 2017	Oct 2016	∆%
Total Balance	-69,076	-63,399
Petroleum	-3,229	-5,634
Non-Petroleum	-64,873	-56,355
Total Exports	130,321	122,514	6.4
Petroleum	12,197	7,548	61.6
Non-Petroleum	117,684	114,813	2.5
Total Imports	199,397	185,913	7.3
Petroleum	15,426	13,183	17.0
Non-Petroleum	182,557	171,168	6.7

	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
Goods & Services	-705	-709	-384	-495	-549
Primary Income	85	130	115	168	211
Secondary Income	-91	-102	-104	-104	-107
Current Account	-711	-681	-373	-431	-445
NGDP	14478	14719	14419	14964	15518
Current Account % GDP	-4.9	-4.6	-2.6	-2.9	-2.9
NIIP	-1279	-3995	-2628	-2512	-4455
US Owned Assets Abroad	20705	19423	19426	21767	22209
Foreign Owned Assets in US	21984	23418	22054	24279	26664
NIIP % GDP	-8.8	-27.1	-18.2	-16.8	-28.7
Exports Goods, Services and Income	2559	2742	2283	2625	2983
NIIP % Exports Goods, Services and Income	-50	-145	-115	-95	-149
DIA MV	5858	3707	4945	5486	5215
DIUS MV	4134	3091	3619	4099	4199
Fiscal Balance	-161	-459	-1413	-1294	-1300
Fiscal Balance % GDP	-1.1	-3.1	-9.8	-8.7	-8.5
Federal Debt	5035	5803	7545	9019	10128
Federal Debt % GDP	35.2	39.3	52.3	60.9	65.9
Federal Outlays	2729	2983	3518	3457	3603
∆%	2.8	9.3	17.9	-1.7	4.2
% GDP	19.1	20.2	24.4	23.4	23.4
Federal Revenue	2568	2524	2105	2163	2303
∆%	6.7	-1.7	-16.6	2.7	6.5
% GDP	17.9	17.1	14.6	14.6	15.0

	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Goods & Services	-537	-462	-490	-500	-505
Primary Income	207	206	210	181	173
Secondary Income	-97	-94	-94	-115	-120
Current Account	-426	-350	-374	-434	-452
NGDP	16155	16692	17428	18121	18625
Current Account % GDP	-2.6	-2.1	-2.1	-2.4	-2.4
NIIP	-4518	-5373	-6980	-7493	-8318
US Owned Assets Abroad	22562	24145	24832	23352	23849
Foreign Owned Assets in US	27080	29517	31813	30846	32168
NIIP % GDP	-28.0	-32.2	-40.1	-41.3	-44.7
Exports Goods, Services and Income	3096	3212	3333	3173	3157
NIIP % Exports Goods, Services and Income	-146	-167	-209	-236	-263
DIA MV	5969	7121	7189	6999	7375
DIUS MV	4662	5815	6370	6701	7569
Fiscal Balance	-1087	-680	-485	-439	-587
Fiscal Balance % GDP	-6.8	-4.1	-2.8	-2.4	-3.2
Federal Debt	11281	11983	12780	13117	14168
Federal Debt % GDP	70.4	72.6	74.2	73.3	77.0
Federal Outlays	3537	3455	3506	3688	3853
∆%	-1.8	-2.3	1.5	5.2	4.5
% GDP	22.1	20.9	20.4	20.6	20.9
Federal Revenue	2450	2775	3022	3250	3268
∆%	6.4	13.3	8.9	7.6	0.5
% GDP	15.3	16.8	17.5	18.2	17.8

	IIQ2016	IIIQ2016	IVQ2016	IQ2017	IIQ2017
Goods & Services	-132	-136	-132	-113	-150
Primary Income	43	43	51	49	47
Secondary Income	-26	-32	-31	-26	-31
Current Account	-115	-126	-112	-90	-134
Current Account % GDP	-2.3	-2.4	-2.4	-2.4	-2.6
NIIP	-8292	-8036	-8318	-8092	-7935
US Owned Assets Abroad	24558	24839	23849	24933	25938
Foreign Owned Assets in US	-32851	-32875	-32168	-33025	-33873
DIA MV	7002	7392	7375	7895	8202
DIA MV Equity	5780	6147	6172	6609	6918
DIUS MV	7123	7424	7569	7952	8162
DIUS MV Equity	5377	5607	5784	6153	6353

1994	FF	30Y	30P	10Y	10P	MOR	CPI
Jan	3.00	6.29	100	5.75	100	7.06	2.52
Feb	3.25	6.49	97.37	5.97	98.36	7.15	2.51
Mar	3.50	6.91	92.19	6.48	94.69	7.68	2.51
Apr	3.75	7.27	88.10	6.97	91.32	8.32	2.36
May	4.25	7.41	86.59	7.18	88.93	8.60	2.29
Jun	4.25	7.40	86.69	7.10	90.45	8.40	2.49
Jul	4.25	7.58	84.81	7.30	89.14	8.61	2.77
Aug	4.75	7.49	85.74	7.24	89.53	8.51	2.69
Sep	4.75	7.71	83.49	7.46	88.10	8.64	2.96
Oct	4.75	7.94	81.23	7.74	86.33	8.93	2.61
Nov	5.50	8.08	79.90	7.96	84.96	9.17	2.67
Dec	6.00	7.87	81.91	7.81	85.89	9.20	2.67

	Potential GDP	Potential Labor Force	Potential Labor Productivity*
Average Annual ∆%
1950-1973	4.0	1.6	2.4
1974-1981	3.2	2.5	0.6
1982-1990	3.4	1.7	1.7
1991-2001	3.3	1.2	2.0
2002-2007	2.4	1.0	1.4
2008-2016	1.4	0.5	0.9
Total 1950-2016	3.2	1.4	1.7
Projected Average Annual ∆%
2017-2020	1.7	0.5	1.2
2021-2027	1.9	0.5	1.4
2017-2027	1.8	0.5	1.3

	Sep 2016 12 Months	Sep 2017 12 Months	Aug 2017	Sep 2017
A Foreign Purchases less Sales of US LT Securities	15.8	329.3	40.6	60.8
A1 Private	354.2	430.8	40.4	59.5
A11 Treasury	68.8	142.0	19.7	13.1
A12 Agency	207.1	107.6	8.2	9.1
A13 Corporate Bonds	134.0	109.4	16.7	14.1
A14 Equities	-55.6	71.8	-4.2	23.2
A2 Official	-338.4	-101.5	0.2	1.3
A21 Treasury	-365.3	-146.9	-2.2	-0.4
A22 Agency	34.2	39.1	1.1	-0.2
A23 Corporate Bonds	-4.5	-0.3	2.5	-1.2
A24 Equities	-2.8	6.6	-1.2	3.0
B Net US Purchases of LT Foreign Securities	196.3	139.4	32.6	20.1
B1 Foreign Bonds	245.7	239.7	32.2	24.2
B2 Foreign Equities	-49.4	-100.3	0.3	-4.1
C1 Net Transactions	212.1	468.7	73.2	80.9
C2 Other	-252.9	-250.2	-16.1	-15.9
C Net Foreign Purchases of US LT Securities	-40.8	218.5	57.1	65.1
D Increase in Foreign Holdings of Dollar Denominated Short-term
US Securities & Other Liab	115.8	17.6	-34.9	2.4
D1 US Treasury Bills	31.6	4.9	-5.8	7.6
D11 Private	67.6	-28.1	0.7	6.6
D12 Official	-35.9	33.1	-6.5	1.1
D2 Other	84.1	12.7	-29.1	-5.3

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